Links Between Flood Frequency and Annual Water Balance Behaviors: A Basis for Similarity and Regionalization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Jiali; Li, Hongyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

This paper presents the results of a data based comparative study of several hundred catchments across continental United States belonging to the MOPEX dataset, which systematically explored the connection between the flood frequency curve and measures of mean annual water balance. Two different measures of mean annual water balance are used: (i) a climatic aridity index, AI, which is a measure of the competition between water and energy availability at the annual scale; and, (ii) baseflow index, BFI, the ratio of slow runoff to total runoff also at the annual time scale, reflecting the role of geology, soils, topography andmore » vegetation. The data analyses showed that the aridity index, AI, has a first order control on both the mean and Cv of annual maximum floods. While mean annual flood decreases with increasing aridity, Cv increases with increasing aridity. BFI appeared to be a second order control on the magnitude and shape of the flood frequency curve. Higher BFI, meaning more subsurface flow and less surface flow leads to a decrease of mean annual flood whereas lower BFI leads to accumulation of soil moisture and increased flood magnitudes that arise from many events acting together. The results presented in this paper provide innovative means to delineate homogeneous regions within which the flood frequency curves can be assumed to be functionally similar. At another level, understanding the connection between annual water balance and flood frequency will be another building block towards developing comprehensive understanding of catchment runoff behavior in a holistic way.« less

Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

Demand analysis of flood insurance by using logistic regression model and genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidi, P.; Mamat, M. B.; Sukono; Supian, S.; Putra, A. S.

2018-03-01

Citarum River floods in the area of South Bandung Indonesia, often resulting damage to some buildings belonging to the people living in the vicinity. One effort to alleviate the risk of building damage is to have flood insurance. The main obstacle is not all people in the Citarum basin decide to buy flood insurance. In this paper, we intend to analyse the decision to buy flood insurance. It is assumed that there are eight variables that influence the decision of purchasing flood assurance, include: income level, education level, house distance with river, building election with road, flood frequency experience, flood prediction, perception on insurance company, and perception towards government effort in handling flood. The analysis was done by using logistic regression model, and to estimate model parameters, it is done with genetic algorithm. The results of the analysis shows that eight variables analysed significantly influence the demand of flood insurance. These results are expected to be considered for insurance companies, to influence the decision of the community to be willing to buy flood insurance.

Decadal changes in the frequency of major floods in near-natural catchments across North America and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Hannaford, Jamie; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Fleig, Anne; Stahl, Kerstin; Renard, Benjamin; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

Recent major floods in North America and Europe have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has therefore been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, the current study is analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine long-term variability in the number of major floods, annual exceedances of 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods during the last 40-100 years are estimated for all study gauges across North America and Europe. These are then pooled, and regional and continental flood frequency time series computed, including separate groups for different types of hydrological regime (pluvial, nival, mixed etc). Preliminary results will be presented, focusing on whether there is evidence for interdecadal variability in the occurrence of flooding at the large scale in Europe and North America. The unique intercontinental dataset is an example of successful international collaboration on hydro-climatic data exchange, which is potentially a step towards establishing RHN-like networks on a global scale. Such networks will make a valuable contribution to the understanding of hydrological change in future.

Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico.

PubMed

Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; van Roomen, Vincent; Connor, Harry; Zavala-Hidalgo, Jorge; Eilander, Dirk M; Ward, Philip J

2018-06-13

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost-benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Flood-frequency characteristics of Wisconsin streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Peppler, Marie C.; Danz, Mari E.; Hubbard, Laura E.

2017-05-22

Flood-frequency characteristics for 360 gaged sites on unregulated rural streams in Wisconsin are presented for percent annual exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.2 to 50 using a statewide skewness map developed for this report. Equations of the relations between flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics were developed by multiple-regression analyses. Flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites on unregulated, rural streams can be estimated by use of the equations presented in this report. The State was divided into eight areas of similar physiographic characteristics. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, main-channel slope, and several land-use variables. The standard error of prediction for the equation for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood ranges from 56 to 70 percent for Wisconsin Streams; these values are larger than results presented in previous reports. The increase in the standard error of prediction is likely due to increased variability of the annual-peak discharges, resulting in increased variability in the magnitude of flood peaks at higher frequencies. For each of the unregulated rural streamflow-gaging stations, a weighted estimate based on the at-site log Pearson type III analysis and the multiple regression results was determined. The weighted estimate generally has a lower uncertainty than either the Log Pearson type III or multiple regression estimates. For regulated streams, a graphical method for estimating flood-frequency characteristics was developed from the relations of discharge and drainage area for selected annual exceedance probabilities. Graphs for the major regulated streams in Wisconsin are presented in the report.

Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

2016-04-01

In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

Evaluation of the flood hydrology in the Colorado Front Range using precipitation, streamflow, and paleoflood data for the Big Thompson River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, R.D.; Costa, J.E.

1988-01-01

A multidisciplinary study of precipitation and streamflow data and paleohydrologic studies of channel features was made to analyze the flood hydrology of foothill and mountain streams in the Front Range of Colorado, with emphasis on the Big Thompson River basin, because conventional hydrologic analyses do not adequately characterize the flood hydrology. In the foothills of Colorado, annual floodflows are derived from snowmelt at high elevations in the mountain regions, from rainfall at low elevation in the plains or plateau regions, or from a combination of rain falling on snow or mixed population hydrology. Above approximately 7,500 ft, snowmelt dominates; rain does not contribute to the flood potential. Regional flood-frequency relations were developed and compared with conventional flood-estimating technique results, including an evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of the probable maximum flood. Evaluation of streamflow data and paleoflood investigations provide an alternative for evaluating flood hydrology and the safety of dams. The study indicates the need for additional data collection and research to understand the complexities of the flood hydrology in mountainous regions, especially its effects on flood-plain management and the design of structures in the flood plain. (USGS)

Extraordinary flood response of a small urban watershed to short-duration convective rainfall

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, J.A.; Miller, A.J.; Baeck, M.L.; Nelson, P.A.; Fisher, G.T.; Meierdiercks, K.L.

2005-01-01

The 9.1 km2 Moores Run watershed in Baltimore, Maryland, experiences floods with unit discharge peaks exceeding 1 m3 s-1 km-2 12 times yr-1, on average. Few, if any, drainage basins in the continental United States have a higher frequency. A thunderstorm system on 13 June 2003 produced the record flood peak (13.2 m3 s-1 km-2) during the 6-yr stream gauging record of Moores Run. In this paper, the hydrometeorology, hydrology, and hydraulics of extreme floods in Moores Run are examined through analyses of the 13 June 2003 storm and flood, as well as other major storm and flood events during the 2000-03 time period. The 13 June 2003 flood, like most floods in Moores Run, was produced by an organized system of thunderstorms. Analyses of the 13 June 2003 storm, which are based on volume scan reflectivity observations from the Sterling, Virginia, WSR-88D radar, are used to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of flash flood producing rainfall. Hydrology of flood response in Moores Run is characterized by highly efficient concentration of runoff through the storm drain network and relatively low runoff ratios. A detailed survey of high-water marks for the 13 June 2003 flood is used, in combination with analyses based on a 2D, depth-averaged open channel flow model (TELEMAC 2D) to examine hydraulics of the 13 June 2003 flood. Hydraulic analyses are used to examine peak discharge estimates for the 13 June flood peak, propagation of flood waves in the Moores Run channel, and 2D flow features associated with channel and floodplain geometry. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

Flood Frequency Curves - Use of information on the likelihood of extreme floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faber, B.

2011-12-01

Investment in the infrastructure that reduces flood risk for flood-prone communities must incorporate information on the magnitude and frequency of flooding in that area. Traditionally, that information has been a probability distribution of annual maximum streamflows developed from the historical gaged record at a stream site. Practice in the United States fits a Log-Pearson type3 distribution to the annual maximum flows of an unimpaired streamflow record, using the method of moments to estimate distribution parameters. The procedure makes the assumptions that annual peak streamflow events are (1) independent, (2) identically distributed, and (3) form a representative sample of the overall probability distribution. Each of these assumptions can be challenged. We rarely have enough data to form a representative sample, and therefore must compute and display the uncertainty in the estimated flood distribution. But, is there a wet/dry cycle that makes precipitation less than independent between successive years? Are the peak flows caused by different types of events from different statistical populations? How does the watershed or climate changing over time (non-stationarity) affect the probability distribution floods? Potential approaches to avoid these assumptions vary from estimating trend and shift and removing them from early data (and so forming a homogeneous data set), to methods that estimate statistical parameters that vary with time. A further issue in estimating a probability distribution of flood magnitude (the flood frequency curve) is whether a purely statistical approach can accurately capture the range and frequency of floods that are of interest. A meteorologically-based analysis produces "probable maximum precipitation" (PMP) and subsequently a "probable maximum flood" (PMF) that attempts to describe an upper bound on flood magnitude in a particular watershed. This analysis can help constrain the upper tail of the probability distribution, well beyond the range of gaged data or even historical or paleo-flood data, which can be very important in risk analyses performed for flood risk management and dam and levee safety studies.

Hydrologic, Hydraulic, and Flood Analyses of the Blackberry Creek Watershed, Kendall County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.; Soong, David T.; Hamblen, Christopher S.

2007-01-01

Results of the hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kendall County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains cover approximately 3,699 and 3,762 acres of land, respectively. On the basis of land-cover data for 2003, most of the land in the flood plains was cropland and residential land. Although many acres of residential land were included in the flood plain, this land was mostly lawns, with 25 homes within the 100-year flood plain, and 41 homes within the 500-year flood plain in the 2003 aerial photograph. This report describes the data collection activities to refine the hydrologic and hydraulic models used in an earlier study of the Kane County part of the Blackberry Creek watershed and to extend the flood-frequency analysis through water year 2003. The results of the flood-hazard analysis are presented in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to simulate continuous water movement through various land-use patterns in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center- River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using observations during three storms at two crest-stage gages and the U.S. Geological Survey streamflowgaging station near Yorkville. Digital maps of the 100-year and 500-year flood plains and the 100-year floodway for each tributary and the main stem of Blackberry Creek were compiled.

Annual timing of river floods in the Northeast United States: seasonal characterization and temporal trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, M. J.

2016-12-01

Increases in flood magnitude and frequency have been documented in climate-sensitive watersheds in the Northeast United States. Associated changes in inundation frequency and/or magnitude, or changes in stream channel form and function, can affect human uses of floodplain environments (e.g., dwellings or transportation infrastructure) as well as aquatic and riparian habitats. Historical changes in flood magnitude and frequency also have important implications for designing floodplain infrastructure and channel modifications because well-accepted statistical methods for design-flood prediction require flood records with stationary means and variances. Changes in flood timing during the year may also be impactful, but have not been studied in detail for the Northeast United States. For example, relatively modest shifts in the timing of winter/spring floods can affect the incidence of ice jam complications. Or, changes in spring or fall flood timing may positively or negatively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. With this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasonality in climate-sensitive watersheds of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Temporal trends in the timing of floods within significant flood seasons at a site are then analyzed using a method that employs directional statistics. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. Documented changes in flood timing during the year are considered in the context of both potential historical impacts and expectations for future flood timing given regional climate change projections.

Method of estimating flood-frequency parameters for streams in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kjelstrom, L.C.; Moffatt, R.L.

1981-01-01

Skew coefficients for the log-Pearson type III distribution are generalized on the basis of some similarity of floods in the Snake River basin and other parts of Idaho. Generalized skew coefficients aid in shaping flood-frequency curves because skew coefficients computed from gaging stations having relatively short periods of peak flow records can be unreliable. Generalized skew coefficients can be obtained for a gaging station from one of three maps in this report. The map to be used depends on whether (1) snowmelt floods are domiant (generally when more than 20 percent of the drainage area is above 6,000 feet altitude), (2) rainstorm floods are dominant (generally when the mean altitude is less than 3,000 feet), or (3) either snowmelt or rainstorm floods can be the annual miximum discharge. For the latter case, frequency curves constructed using separate arrays of each type of runoff can be combined into one curve, which, for some stations, is significantly different than the frequency curve constructed using only annual maximum discharges. For 269 gaging stations, flood-frequency curves that include the generalized skew coefficients in the computation of the log-Pearson type III equation tend to fit the data better than previous analyses. Frequency curves for ungaged sites can be derived by estimating three statistics of the log-Pearson type III distribution. The mean and standard deviation of logarithms of annual maximum discharges are estimated by regression equations that use basin characteristics as independent variables. Skew coefficient estimates are the generalized skews. The log-Pearson type III equation is then applied with the three estimated statistics to compute the discharge at selected exceedance probabilities. Standard errors at the 2-percent exceedance probability range from 41 to 90 percent. (USGS)

Analysis of institutional mechanisms that support community response to impacts of floods in the middle-zambezi river basin, Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhonda, P.; Mabiza, C.; Makurira, H.; Kujinga, K.; Nhapi, I.; Goldin, J.; Mashauri, D. A.

In recent years, the frequency of occurrence of floods has increased in Southern Africa. An increase in the frequency of extreme events is partly attributed to climate change. Floods negatively impact on livelihoods, especially those classified as poor, mainly by reducing livelihood options and also contributing to reduced crop yields. In response to these climatic events, governments within Southern Africa have formulated policies which try to mitigate the impacts of floods. Floods can be deadly, often occurring at short notice, lasting for short periods, and causing widespread damage to infrastructure. This study analysed institutional mechanisms in Mbire District of Zimbabwe which aim at mitigating the impact of floods. The study used both quantitative (i.e. questionnaires) and qualitative (i.e. key informant interviews, focus group discussions and observations) data collection methods. Secondary data such as policy and legislation documents and operational manuals of organisations that support communities affected by disasters were reviewed. Qualitative data was analysed using the thematic approach and social network analysis using UCINET 6. Quantitative data were analysed using SPSS 19.0. The study found out that there exists institutional framework that has been developed at the national and local level to support communities in the study area in response to the impacts of floods. This is supported by various pieces of legislation that are housed in different government departments. However, the existing institutional framework does not effectively strengthen disaster management mechanisms at the local level. Lack of financial resources and appropriate training and skills to undertake flood management activities reduce the capacity of communities and disaster management organisations to effectively mitigate the impacts of floods. The study also found that there are inadequate hydro-meteorological stations to enable accurate forecasts. Even in those cases where forecasts predicting extreme weather events have been made, communities have difficulties accessing and interpreting such forecasts due to inadequate communication systems. Such factors reduce the preparedness of communities to deal with extreme weather events.

Uncertainties in the palaeoflood record - interpreting geomorphology since 12 500 BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moloney, Jessica; Coulthard, Tom; Freer, Jim; Rogerson, Mike

2017-04-01

Recent floods in the UK have reinvigorated the national debate within academic and non-academic organisations of how we quantify risk and improve the resilience of communities to flooding. One critical aspect of that debate is to better understand and quantify the frequency of extreme floods occurring. The research presented in this study explores the challenges and uncertainties of using longer term palaeoflood data records to improve the quantification of flood risk. The frequency of floods has been studied on short (under 100 years) and long-time (over 200 years) scales. Long term flood frequency records rely on the radiocarbon dating and interpretation of geomorphological evidence within fluvial depositional environments. However, there are limitations with the methods used to do this. Notably, the use of probability distribution functions of fluvial deposits dates does not consider any other information, such as the geomorphological context of material and/ or the type of depositional environment. This study re-analyses 776 radiocarbon dated fluvial deposits from the UK, which have been compiled into a database, to interpret the geomorphological flood record. Initial findings indicate that even this large number of samples may be unsuitable for probabilistic methods and shows an unusual sensitivity to the number of records present in the database.

Flood of April 2007 and Flood-Frequency Estimates at Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Western Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2009-01-01

A spring nor'easter affected the East Coast of the United States from April 15 to 18, 2007. In Connecticut, rainfall varied from 3 inches to more than 7 inches. The combined effects of heavy rainfall over a short duration, high winds, and high tides led to widespread flooding, storm damage, power outages, evacuations, and disruptions to traffic and commerce. The storm caused at least 18 fatalities (none in Connecticut). A Presidential Disaster Declaration was issued on May 11, 2007, for two counties in western Connecticut - Fairfield and Litchfield. This report documents hydrologic and meteorologic aspects of the April 2007 flood and includes estimates of the magnitude of the peak discharges and peak stages during the flood at 28 streamflow-gaging stations in western Connecticut. These data were used to perform flood-frequency analyses. Flood-frequency estimates provided in this report are expressed in terms of exceedance probabilities (the probability of a flood reaching or exceeding a particular magnitude in any year). Flood-frequency estimates for the 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 exceedance probabilities (also expressed as 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2- percent exceedance probability, respectively) were computed for 24 of the 28 streamflow-gaging stations. Exceedance probabilities can further be expressed in terms of recurrence intervals (2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval, respectively). Flood-frequency estimates computed in this study were compared to the flood-frequency estimates used to derive the water-surface profiles in previously published Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Studies. The estimates in this report update and supersede previously published flood-frequency estimates for streamflowgaging stations in Connecticut by incorporating additional years of annual peak discharges, including the peaks for the April 2007 flood. In the southwest coastal region of Connecticut, the April 2007 peak discharges for streamflow-gaging stations with records extending back to 1955 were the second highest peak discharges on record; the 1955 annual peak discharges are the highest peak discharges in the station records. In the Housatonic and South Central Coast Basins, the April 2007 peak discharges for streamflow-gaging stations with records extending back to 1930 or earlier ranked between the fourth and eighth highest discharges on record, with the 1936, 1938, and 1955 floods as the largest floods in the station records. The peak discharges for the April 2007 flood have exceedance probabilities ranging between 0.10 to 0.02 (a 10- to 2-percent chance of being exceeded in a given year, respectively) with the majority (80 percent) of the stations having exceedance probabilities between 0.10 to 0.04. At three stations - Norwalk River at South Wilton, Pootatuck River at Sandy Hook, and Still River at Robertsville - the April 2007 peak discharges have an exceedance probability of 0.02. Flood-frequency estimates made after the April 2007 flood were compared to flood-frequency estimates used to derive the water-surface profiles (also called flood profiles) in FEMA Flood Insurance Studies developed for communities. In general, the comparison indicated that at the 0.10 exceedance probability (a 10-percent change of being exceeded in a given year), the discharges from the current (2007) flood-frequency analysis are larger than the discharges in the FEMA Flood Insurance Studies, with a median change of about +10 percent. In contrast, at the 0.01 exceedance probability (a 1-percent change of being exceeded in a year), the discharges from the current flood-frequency analysis are smaller than the discharges in the FEMA Flood Insurance Studies, with a median change of about -13 percent. Several stations had more than + 25 percent change in discharges at the 0.10 exceedance probability and are in the following communities: Winchester (Still River at Robertsv

A framework for multivariate data-based at-site flood frequency analysis: Essentiality of the conjugal application of parametric and nonparametric approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vittal, H.; Singh, Jitendra; Kumar, Pankaj; Karmakar, Subhankar

2015-06-01

In watershed management, flood frequency analysis (FFA) is performed to quantify the risk of flooding at different spatial locations and also to provide guidelines for determining the design periods of flood control structures. The traditional FFA was extensively performed by considering univariate scenario for both at-site and regional estimation of return periods. However, due to inherent mutual dependence of the flood variables or characteristics [i.e., peak flow (P), flood volume (V) and flood duration (D), which are random in nature], analysis has been further extended to multivariate scenario, with some restrictive assumptions. To overcome the assumption of same family of marginal density function for all flood variables, the concept of copula has been introduced. Although, the advancement from univariate to multivariate analyses drew formidable attention to the FFA research community, the basic limitation was that the analyses were performed with the implementation of only parametric family of distributions. The aim of the current study is to emphasize the importance of nonparametric approaches in the field of multivariate FFA; however, the nonparametric distribution may not always be a good-fit and capable of replacing well-implemented multivariate parametric and multivariate copula-based applications. Nevertheless, the potential of obtaining best-fit using nonparametric distributions might be improved because such distributions reproduce the sample's characteristics, resulting in more accurate estimations of the multivariate return period. Hence, the current study shows the importance of conjugating multivariate nonparametric approach with multivariate parametric and copula-based approaches, thereby results in a comprehensive framework for complete at-site FFA. Although the proposed framework is designed for at-site FFA, this approach can also be applied to regional FFA because regional estimations ideally include at-site estimations. The framework is based on the following steps: (i) comprehensive trend analysis to assess nonstationarity in the observed data; (ii) selection of the best-fit univariate marginal distribution with a comprehensive set of parametric and nonparametric distributions for the flood variables; (iii) multivariate frequency analyses with parametric, copula-based and nonparametric approaches; and (iv) estimation of joint and various conditional return periods. The proposed framework for frequency analysis is demonstrated using 110 years of observed data from Allegheny River at Salamanca, New York, USA. The results show that for both univariate and multivariate cases, the nonparametric Gaussian kernel provides the best estimate. Further, we perform FFA for twenty major rivers over continental USA, which shows for seven rivers, all the flood variables followed nonparametric Gaussian kernel; whereas for other rivers, parametric distributions provide the best-fit either for one or two flood variables. Thus the summary of results shows that the nonparametric method cannot substitute the parametric and copula-based approaches, but should be considered during any at-site FFA to provide the broadest choices for best estimation of the flood return periods.

Flood-frequency analyses from paleoflood investigations for Spring, Rapid, Boxelder, and Elk Creeks, Black Hills, western South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, Jim E.; Driscoll, Daniel G.; Stamm, John F.

2011-01-01

Flood-frequency analyses for the Black Hills area are important because of severe flooding of June 9-10, 1972, that was caused by a large mesoscale convective system and caused at least 238 deaths. Many 1972 peak flows are high outliers (by factors of 10 or more) in observed records that date to the early 1900s. An efficient means of reducing uncertainties for flood recurrence is to augment gaged records by using paleohydrologic techniques to determine ages and magnitudes of prior large floods (paleofloods). This report summarizes results of paleoflood investigations for Spring Creek, Rapid Creek (two reaches), Boxelder Creek (two subreaches), and Elk Creek. Stratigraphic records and resulting long-term flood chronologies, locally extending more than 2,000 years, were combined with observed and adjusted peak-flow values (gaged records) and historical flood information to derive flood-frequency estimates for the six study reaches. Results indicate that (1) floods as large as and even substantially larger than 1972 have affected most of the study reaches, and (2) incorporation of the paleohydrologic information substantially reduced uncertainties in estimating flood recurrence. Canyons within outcrops of Paleozoic rocks along the eastern flanks of the Black Hills provided excellent environments for (1) deposition and preservation of stratigraphic sequences of late-Holocene flood deposits, primarily in protected slack-water settings flanking the streams; and (2) hydraulic analyses for determination of associated flow magnitudes. The bedrock canyons ensure long-term stability of channel and valley geometry, thereby increasing confidence in hydraulic computations of ancient floods from modern channel geometry. Stratigraphic records of flood sequences, in combination with deposit dating by radiocarbon, optically stimulated luminescence, and cesium-137, provided paleoflood chronologies for 29 individual study sites. Flow magnitudes were estimated from elevations of flood deposits in conjunction with hydraulic calculations based on modern channel and valley geometry. Reach-scale paleoflood chronologies were interpreted for each study reach, which generally entailed correlation of flood evidence among multiple sites, chiefly based on relative position within stratigraphic sequences, unique textural characteristics, or results of age dating and flow estimation. The FLDFRQ3 and PeakfqSA analytical models (assuming log-Pearson Type III frequency distributions) were used for flood-frequency analyses for as many as four scenarios: (1) analysis of gaged records only; (2) gaged records with historical information; (3) all available data including gaged records, historical flows, paleofloods, and perception thresholds; and (4) the same as the third scenario, but ?top fitting? the distribution using only the largest 50 percent of gaged peak flows. The PeakfqSA model is most consistent with procedures adopted by most Federal agencies for flood-frequency analysis and thus was (1) used for comparisons among results for study reaches, and (2) considered by the authors as most appropriate for general applications of estimating low-probability flood recurrence. The detailed paleoflood investigations indicated that in the last 2,000 years all study reaches have had multiple large floods substantially larger than in gaged records. For Spring Creek, stratigraphic records preserved a chronology of at least five paleofloods in approximately (~) 1,000 years approaching or exceeding the 1972 flow of 21,800 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). The largest was ~700 years ago with a flow range of 29,300-58,600 ft3/s, which reflects the uncertainty regarding flood-magnitude estimates that was incorporated in the flood-frequency analyses. In the lower reach of Rapid Creek (downstream from Pactola Dam), two paleofloods in ~1,000 years exceeded the 1972 flow of 31,200 ft3/s. Those occurred ~440 and 1,000 years ago, with flows of 128,000-256,000 and 64,000-128,000 ft3/s, respectively. Five smaller paleofloods of 9,500-19,000 ft3/s occurred between ~200 and 400 years ago. In the upper reach of Rapid Creek (above Pactola Reservoir), the largest recorded floods are substantially smaller than for lower Rapid Creek and all other study reaches. Paleofloods of ~12,900 and 12,000 ft3/s occurred ~1,000 and 1,500 years ago. One additional paleoflood (~800 years ago) was similar in magnitude to the largest gaged flow of 2,460 ft3/s Boxelder Creek was treated as having two subreaches because of two tributaries that affect peak flows. During the last ~1,000 years, paleofloods of ~39,000-78,000 ft3/s and 40,000-80,000 ft3/s in the upstream subreach have exceeded the 1972 peak flow of 30,800 ft3/s. One other paleoflood was similar to the second largest gaged flow (16,400 ft3/s in 1907). For the downstream subreach, paleofloods of 61,300-123,000 ft3/s and 52,500-105,000 ft3/s in the last ~1,000 years have substantially exceeded the 1972 flood (50,500 ft3/s). Four additional paleofloods had flows between 14,200 and 33,800 ft3/s. The 1972 flow on Elk Creek (10,400 ft3/s) has been substantially exceeded at least five times in the last 1,900 years. The largest paleoflood (41,500-124,000 ft3/s) was ~900 years ago. Three other paleofloods between 37,500 and 120,000 ft3/s occurred between 1,100 and 1,800 years ago. A fifth paleoflood of 25,500-76,500 ft3/s was ~750 years ago. Considering analyses for all available data (PeakfqSA model) for all six study reaches, the 95-percent confidence intervals about the low-probability quantile estimates (100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals) were reduced by at least 78 percent relative to those for the gaged records only. In some cases, 95-percent uncertainty intervals were reduced by 99 percent or more. For all study reaches except the two Boxelder Creek subreaches, quantile estimates for these long-term analyses were larger than for the short-term analyses. The 1972 flow for the Spring Creek study reach (21,800 ft3/s) corresponds with a recurrence interval of ~400 years. Recurrence intervals are ~500 years for the 1972 flood magnitudes along the lower Rapid Creek reach and the upstream subreach of Boxelder Creek. For the downstream subreach of Boxelder Creek, the large 1972 flood magnitude (50,500 ft3/s) exceeds the 500-year quantile estimate by about 35 percent. The recurrence interval of ~100 years for 1972 flooding along the Elk Creek study reach is small relative to other study reaches along the eastern margin of the Black Hills. All of the paleofloods plot within the bounds of a national envelope curve, indicating that the national curve represents exceedingly rare floods for the Black Hills area. Elk Creek, lower Rapid Creek, and the downstream subreach of Boxelder Creek all have paleofloods that plot above a regional envelope curve; in the case of Elk Creek, by a factor of nearly two. The Black Hills paleofloods represent some of the largest known floods, relative to drainage area, for the United States. Many of the other largest known United States floods are in areas with physiographic and climatologic conditions broadly similar to the Black Hills-semiarid and rugged landscapes that intercept and focus heavy precipitation from convective storm systems. The 1972 precipitation and runoff patterns, previous analyses of peak-flow records, and the paleoflood investigations of this study support a hypothesis of distinct differences in flood generation within the central Black Hills study area. The eastern Black Hills are susceptible to intense orographic lifting associated with convective storm systems and also have high relief, thin soils, and narrow and steep canyons-factors favoring generation of exceptionally heavy rain-producing thunderstorms and promoting runoff and rapid concentration of flow into stream channels. In contrast, storm potential is smaller in and near the Limestone Plateau area, and storm runoff is further reduced by substantial infiltration into the limestone, gentle topography, and extensive floodplain storage. Results of the paleoflood investigations are directly applicable only to the specific study reaches and in the case of Rapid Creek, only to pre-regulation conditions. Thus, approaches for broader applications were developed from inferences of overall flood-generation processes, and appropriate domains for application of results were described. Example applications were provided by estimating flood quantiles for selected streamgages, which also allowed direct comparison with results of at-site flood-frequency analyses from a previous study. Several broad issues and uncertainties were examined, including potential biases associated with stratigraphic records that inherently are not always complete, uncertainties regarding statistical approaches, and the unknown applicability of paleoflood records to future watershed conditions. The results of the paleoflood investigations, however, provide much better physically based information on low-probability floods than has been available previously, substantially improving estimates of the magnitude and frequency of large floods in these basins and reducing associated uncertainty.

Nonlinear Filtering Effects of Reservoirs on Flood Frequency Curves at the Regional Scale: RESERVOIRS FILTER FLOOD FREQUENCY CURVES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Wei; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, L. Ruby

Anthropogenic activities, e.g., reservoir operation, may alter the characteristics of Flood Frequency Curve (FFC) and challenge the basic assumption of stationarity used in flood frequency analysis. This paper presents a combined data-modeling analysis of the nonlinear filtering effects of reservoirs on the FFCs over the contiguous United States. A dimensionless Reservoir Impact Index (RII), defined as the total upstream reservoir storage capacity normalized by the annual streamflow volume, is used to quantify reservoir regulation effects. Analyses are performed for 388 river stations with an average record length of 50 years. The first two moments of the FFC, mean annual maximummore » flood (MAF) and coefficient of variations (CV), are calculated for the pre- and post-dam periods and compared to elucidate the reservoir regulation effects as a function of RII. It is found that MAF generally decreases with increasing RII but stabilizes when RII exceeds a threshold value, and CV increases with RII until a threshold value beyond which CV decreases with RII. The processes underlying the nonlinear threshold behavior of MAF and CV are investigated using three reservoir models with different levels of complexity. All models capture the non-linear relationships of MAF and CV with RII, suggesting that the basic flood control function of reservoirs is key to the non-linear relationships. The relative roles of reservoir storage capacity, operation objectives, available storage prior to a flood event, and reservoir inflow pattern are systematically investigated. Our findings may help improve flood-risk assessment and mitigation in regulated river systems at the regional scale.« less

Comparison between changes in flood hazard and risk in Spain using historical information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Mediero, Luis; Garrote, Luis; Gilabert, Joan

2015-04-01

Recently, the COST Action ES0901 "European procedures for flood frequency estimation (FloodFreq)" had as objective "the comparison and evaluation of methods for flood frequency estimation under the various climatologic and geographic conditions found in Europe". It was highlighted the improvement of regional analyses on at-site estimates, in terms of the uncertainty of quantile estimates. In the case of Spain, a regional analysis was carried out at a national scale, which allows identifying the flow threshold corresponding to a given return period from the observed flow series recorded at a gauging station. In addition, Mediero et al. (2014) studied the possible influence of non-stationarity on flood series for the period 1942-2009. In parallel, Barnolas and Llasat (2007), among others, collected documentary information of catastrophic flood events in Spain for the last centuries. Traditionally, the first approach ("top-down") usually identifies a flood as catastrophic, when its exceeds the 500-year return period flood. However, the second one ("bottom-up approach") accounts for flood damages (Llasat et al, 2005). This study presents a comparison between both approaches, discussing the potential factors that can lead to discrepancies between them, as well as accounting for information about major changes experienced in the catchment that could lead to changes in flood hazard and risk.

Estimated Flood Discharges and Map of Flood-Inundated Areas for Omaha Creek, near Homer, Nebraska, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wilson, Richard C.; Strauch, Kellan R.

2008-01-01

Repeated flooding of Omaha Creek has caused damage in the Village of Homer. Long-term degradation and bridge scouring have changed substantially the channel characteristics of Omaha Creek. Flood-plain managers, planners, homeowners, and others rely on maps to identify areas at risk of being inundated. To identify areas at risk for inundation by a flood having a 1-percent annual probability, maps were created using topographic data and water-surface elevations resulting from hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. The hydrologic analysis for the Omaha Creek study area was performed using historical peak flows obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage (station number 06601000). Flood frequency and magnitude were estimated using the PEAKFQ Log-Pearson Type III analysis software. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, version 3.1.3, software was used to simulate the water-surface elevation for flood events. The calibrated model was used to compute streamflow-gage stages and inundation elevations for the discharges corresponding to floods of selected probabilities. Results of the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses indicated that flood inundation elevations are substantially lower than from a previous study.

Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses at Akin Branch and Cayce Valley Branch, Columbia, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Outlaw, George S.

1993-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Columbia, Tennessee, conducted hydrologic and hydraulic analyses at Akin Branch and Cayce Valley Branch in the Little Bigby Creek watershed, Columbia, Tennessee, from 1990 through 1991. Results of the analyses can be used by city planners in the development of plans to replace several deteriorating and inadequate drainage structures. Akin Branch and Cayce Valley Branch drain small watersheds of 1.69 and 1.04 square miles, respectively. Flood discharges for 5-, lo-, and 25-year recurrence-interval storm events were calculated at the stream mouths using flood-frequency relations developed for use at small urban streams in Tennessee. For each stream, flood discharges at locations upstream from the mouth were calculated by subdividing the watershed and assigning a percentage of the discharge at the mouth, based on drainage area, to each subarea. Flood profiles for the selected recurrence-interval flood discharges were simulated for Akin Branch and Cayce Valley Branch for existing conditions and conditions that might exist if drainage improvements such as larger culverts and bridges and channel improvements are constructed. The results of the simulations were used to predict changes in flood elevations that might result from such drainage improvements. Analyses indicate that reductions in existing flood elevations of as much as 2.1 feet for the 5-year flood at some sites on Akin Branch and as much as 3.8 feet for the 5-year flood at some sites on Cayce Valley Branch might be expected with the drainage improvements.

Looking at flood trends with different eyes: the value of a fuzzy flood classification scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikorska, A. E.; Viviroli, D.; Brunner, M. I.; Seibert, J.

2016-12-01

Natural floods can be governed by several processes such as heavy rainfall or intense snow- or glacier-melt. These processes result in different flood characteristics in terms of flood shape and magnitude. Pooling floods of different types might therefore impair the analyses of flood frequencies and trends. Thus, the categorization of flood events into different flood type classes and the determination of their respective frequencies is essential for a better understanding and for the prediction of floods. In reality however most flood events are caused by a mix of processes and a unique determination of a flood type per event often becomes difficult. This study proposes an innovative method for a more reliable categorization of floods according to similarities in flood drivers. The categorization of floods into subgroups relies on a fuzzy decision tree. While the classical (crisp) decision tree allows for the identification of only one flood type per event, the fuzzy approach enables the detection of mixed types. Hence, events are represented as a spectrum of six possible flood types, while a degree of acceptance attributed to each of them specifies the importance of each type during the event formation. Considered types are flash, short rainfall, long rainfall, snow-melt, rainfall-on-snow, and, in high altitude watersheds, also glacier-melt floods. The fuzzy concept also enables uncertainty present in the identification of flood processes and in the method to be incorporated into the flood categorization process. We demonstrate, for a set of nine Swiss watersheds and 30 years of observations, that this new concept provides more reliable flood estimates than the classical approach as it allows for a more dedicated flood prevention technique adapted to a specific flood type.

Revisiting regional flood frequency analysis in Slovakia: the region-of-influence method vs. traditional regional approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Kohnová, Silvia; Szolgay, Ján.

2010-05-01

During the last 10-15 years, the Slovak hydrologists and water resources managers have been devoting considerable efforts to develop statistical tools for modelling probabilities of flood occurrence in a regional context. Initially, these models followed concepts to regional flood frequency analysis that were based on fixed regions, later the Hosking and Wallis's (HW; 1997) theory was adopted and modified. Nevertheless, it turned out to be that delineating homogeneous regions using these approaches is not a straightforward task, mostly due to the complex orography of the country. In this poster we aim at revisiting flood frequency analyses so far accomplished for Slovakia by adopting one of the pooling approaches, i.e. the region-of-influence (ROI) approach (Burn, 1990). In the ROI approach, unique pooling groups of similar sites are defined for each site under study. The similarity of sites is defined through Euclidean distance in the space of site attributes that had also proved applicability in former cluster analyses: catchment area, afforested area, hydrogeological catchment index and the mean annual precipitation. The homogeneity of the proposed pooling groups is evaluated by the built-in homogeneity test by Lu and Stedinger (1992). Two alternatives of the ROI approach are examined: in the first one the target size of the pooling groups is adjusted to the target return period T of the estimated flood quantiles, while in the other one, the target size is fixed, regardless of the target T. The statistical models of the ROI approach are inter-compared by the conventional regionalization approach based on the HW methodology where the parameters of flood frequency distributions were derived by means of L-moment statistics and a regional formula for the estimation of the index flood was derived by multiple regression methods using physiographic and climatic catchment characteristics. The inter-comparison of different frequency models is evaluated by means of the root mean square error of data from Monte Carlo simulations. The analysis is based on the annual peak discharges from 168 small and mid-sized catchments from Slovakia. The study is supported by the Grant Agency of AS CR under project B300420801; the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract No. APVV-0443-07 and the Slovak VEGA Grant Agency under the project No. 1/0103/10. Burn, D.H., 1990: Evaluation of regional flood frequency analysis with a region of influence approach. Water Resources Research, 26(10), 2257-2265. Hosking, J.R.M., Wallis, J.R., 1997: Regional frequency analysis: an approach based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Lu, L.-H., Stedinger, J.R., 1992: Sampling variance of normalized GEV/PWM quantile estimators and a regional homogeneity test. Journal of Hydrology, 138(1-2), 223-245.

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges from urban basins in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becker, L.D.

1986-01-01

Techniques are defined for estimating the magnitude and frequency of future flood peak discharges of rainfall-induced runoff from small urban basins in Missouri. These techniques were developed from an initial analysis of flood records of 96 gaged sites in Missouri and adjacent states. Final regression equations are based on a balanced, representative sampling of 37 gaged sites in Missouri. This sample included 9 statewide urban study sites, 18 urban sites in St. Louis County, and 10 predominantly rural sites statewide. Short-term records were extended on the basis of long-term climatic records and use of a rainfall-runoff model. Linear least-squares regression analyses were used with log-transformed variables to relate flood magnitudes of selected recurrence intervals (dependent variables) to selected drainage basin indexes (independent variables). For gaged urban study sites within the State, the flood peak estimates are from the frequency curves defined from the synthesized long-term discharge records. Flood frequency estimates are made for ungaged sites by using regression equations that require determination of the drainage basin size and either the percentage of impervious area or a basin development factor. Alternative sets of equations are given for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-yr recurrence interval floods. The average standard errors of estimate range from about 33% for the 2-yr flood to 26% for the 100-yr flood. The techniques for estimation are applicable to flood flows that are not significantly affected by storage caused by manmade activities. Flood peak discharge estimating equations are considered applicable for sites on basins draining approximately 0.25 to 40 sq mi. (Author 's abstract)

Paleohydrologic techniques used to define the spatial occurrence of floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, R.D.

1990-01-01

Defining the cause and spatial characteristics of floods may be difficult because of limited streamflow and precipitation data. New paleohydrologic techniques that incorporate information from geomorphic, sedimentologic, and botanic studies provide important supplemental information to define homogeneous hydrologic regions. These techniques also help to define the spatial structure of rainstorms and floods and improve regional flood-frequency estimates. The occurrence and the non-occurrence of paleohydrologic evidence of floods, such as flood bars, alluvial fans, and tree scars, provide valuable hydrologic information. The paleohydrologic research to define the spatial characteristics of floods improves the understanding of flood hydrometeorology. This research was used to define the areal extent and contributing drainage area of flash floods in Colorado. Also, paleohydrologic evidence was used to define the spatial boundaries for the Colorado foothills region in terms of the meteorologic cause of flooding and elevation. In general, above 2300 m, peak flows are caused by snowmelt. Below 2300 m, peak flows primarily are caused by rainfall. The foothills region has an upper elevation limit of about 2300 m and a lower elevation limit of about 1500 m. Regional flood-frequency estimates that incorporate the paleohydrologic information indicate that the Big Thompson River flash flood of 1976 had a recurrence interval of approximately 10,000 years. This contrasts markedly with 100 to 300 years determined by using conventional hydrologic analyses. Flood-discharge estimates based on rainfall-runoff methods in the foothills of Colorado result in larger values than those estimated with regional flood-frequency relations, which are based on long-term streamflow data. Preliminary hydrologic and paleohydrologic research indicates that intense rainfall does not occur at higher elevations in other Rocky Mountain states and that the highest elevations for rainfall-producing floods vary by latitude. The study results have implications for floodplain management and design of hydraulic structures in the mountains of Colorado and other Rocky Mountain States. ?? 1990.

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban basins in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.

2010-01-01

Streamgage flood-frequency analyses were done for 35 streamgages on urban streams in and adjacent to Missouri for estimation of the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban areas of Missouri. A log-Pearson Type-III distribution was fitted to the annual series of peak flow data retrieved from the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System. For this report, the flood frequency estimates are expressed in terms of percent annual exceedance probabilities of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, and 0.2. Of the 35 streamgages, 30 are located in Missouri. The remaining five non-Missouri streamgages were added to the dataset to improve the range and applicability of the regression analyses from the streamgage frequency analyses. Ordinary least-squares was used to determine the best set of independent variables for the regression equations. Basin characteristics selected for independent variables into the ordinary least-squares regression analyses were based on theoretical relation to flood flows, literature review of possible basin characteristics, and the ability to measure the basin characteristics using digital datasets and geographic information system technology. Results of the ordinary least-squares were evaluated on the basis of Mallow's Cp statistic, the adjusted coefficient of determination, and the statistical significance of the independent variables. The independent variables of drainage area and percent impervious area were determined to be statistically significant and readily determined from existing digital datasets. The drainage area variable was computed using the best elevation data available, either from a statewide 10-meter grid or high-resolution elevation data from urban areas. The impervious area variable was computed from the National Land Cover Dataset 2001 impervious area dataset. The National Land Cover Dataset 2001 impervious area data for each basin was compared to historical imagery and 7.5-minute topographic maps to verify the national dataset represented the urbanization of the basin at the time streamgage data were collected. Eight streamgages had less urbanization during the period of time streamflow data were collected than was shown on the 2001 dataset. The impervious area values for these eight urban basins were adjusted downward as much as 23 percent to account for the additional urbanization since the streamflow data were collected. Weighted least-squares regression techniques were used to determine the final regression equations for the statewide urban flood-frequency equations. Weighted least-squares techniques improve regression equations by adjusting for different and varying lengths in streamflow records. The final flood-frequency equations for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods for Missouri provide a technique for estimating peak flows on urban streams at gaged and ungaged sites. The applicability of the equations is limited by the range in basin characteristics used to develop the regression equations. The range in drainage area is 0.28 to 189 square miles; range in impervious area is 2.3 to 46.0 percent. Seven of the 35 selected streamgages were used to compare the results of the existing rural and urban equations to the urban equations presented in this report for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability. Results of the comparison indicate that the estimated peak flows for the urban equation in this report ranged from 3 to 52 percent higher than the results from the rural equations. Comparing the estimated urban peak flows from this report to the existing urban equation developed in 1986 indicated the range was 255 percent lower to 10 percent higher. The overall comparison between the current (2010) and 1986 urban equations indicates a reduction in estimated peak flow values for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood.

Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2007-01-01

The Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania experienced severe flooding as a result of intense rainfall during June 2006. The height of the flood waters on the rivers and tributaries approached or exceeded the peak of record at many locations. Updated flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations on tributaries in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins were analyzed using data through the 2006 water year to determine if there were any major differences in the flood-discharge data. Flood frequencies for return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years (Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, Q100, and Q500) were determined from annual maximum series (AMS) data from continuous-record gaging stations (stations) and were compared to flood discharges obtained from previously published Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) and to flood frequencies using partial-duration series (PDS) data. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to determine any statistically significant differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS. Percentage differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS also were determined for the 10, 50, 100, and 500 return intervals. A Mann-Kendall trend test was performed to determine statistically significant trends in the updated AMS peak-flow data for the period of record at the 41 stations. In addition to AMS station data, PDS data were used to determine flood-frequency discharges. The AMS and PDS flood-frequency data were compared to determine any differences between the two data sets. An analysis also was performed on AMS-derived flood frequencies for four stations to evaluate the possible effects of flood-control reservoirs on peak flows. Additionally, flood frequencies for three stations were evaluated to determine possible effects of urbanization on peak flows. The results of the Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed a significant difference at the 95-percent confidence level between the Q100 computed from AMS station data and the Q100 determined from previously published FIS for 97 sites. The flood-frequency discharges computed from AMS station data were consistently larger than the flood discharges from the FIS; mean percentage difference between the two data sets ranged from 14 percent for the Q100 to 20 percent for the Q50. The results of the Mann-Kendall test showed that 8 stations exhibited a positive trend (i.e., increasing annual maximum peaks over time) over their respective periods of record at the 95-percent confidence level, and an additional 7 stations indicated a positive trend, for a total of 15 stations, at a confidence level of greater than or equal to 90 percent. The Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, and Q100 determined from AMS and PDS data for each station were compared by percentage. The flood magnitudes for the 2-year return period were 16 percent higher when partial-duration peaks were incorporated into the analyses, as opposed to using only the annual maximum peaks. The discharges then tended to converge around the 5-year return period, with a mean collective difference of only 1 percent. At the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods, the flood magnitudes based on annual maximum peaks were, on average, 6 percent higher compared to corresponding flood magnitudes based on partial-duration peaks. Possible effects on flood peaks from flood-control reservoirs and urban development within the basin also were examined. Annual maximum peak-flow data from four stations were divided into pre- and post-regulation periods. Comparisons were made between the Q100 determined from AMS station data for the periods of record pre- and post-regulation. Two stations showed a nearly 60- and 20-percent reduction in the 100-year discharges; the other two stations showed negligible differences in discharges. Three stations within urban basins were compared to 38 stations

Comparison of the 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods computed from observed data with the 1995 urban flood-frequency estimating equations for Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Ernest J.

1997-01-01

Flood-frequency relations were computed for 28 urban stations, for 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods and the computations were compared to corresponding recurrence interval floods computed from the estimating equations from a 1995 investigation. Two stations were excluded from further comparisons or analyses because neither station had a significant flood during the period of observed record. The comparisons, based on the student's t-test statistics at the 0.05 level of significance, indicate that the mean residuals of the 25- and 100-year floods were negatively biased by 26.2 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively, at the 26 stations. However, the mean residuals of the 2-year floods were 2.5 percent lower than the mean of the 2-year floods computed from the equations, and were not significantly biased. The reason for this negative bias is that the period of observed record at the 26 stations was a relatively dry period. At 25 of the 26 stations, the two highest simulated peaks used to develop the estimating equations occurred many years before the observed record began. However, no attempt was made to adjust the estimating equations because higher peaks could occur after the period of observed record and an adjustment to the equations would cause an underestimation of design floods.

Comparison of methods for estimating flood magnitudes on small streams in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Glen W.; Price, McGlone

1989-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has collected flood data for small, natural streams at many sites throughout Georgia during the past 20 years. Flood-frequency relations were developed for these data using four methods: (1) observed (log-Pearson Type III analysis) data, (2) rainfall-runoff model, (3) regional regression equations, and (4) map-model combination. The results of the latter three methods were compared to the analyses of the observed data in order to quantify the differences in the methods and determine if the differences are statistically significant.

River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States and trends in annual timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, M. J.

2017-12-01

The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate-associated increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood-generating mechanisms operating in a basin and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and floodplains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood-generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, floodplain infrastructure, and human communities. For example, changes in spring or fall flood timing may negatively or positively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. In this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 climate-sensitive watersheds in New England and the Mid-Atlantic (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Historical trends in flood timing during the year are also investigated. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. The seasonality of flooding in these regions, and any historical changes, are considered in the context of other ongoing or expected phenological changes in the Northeast U.S. environment that affect flood generation—e.g., the timing of leaf-off/leaf-out for deciduous plants. How these factors interact will affect whether and how flood magnitudes and frequencies change in the future and associated impacts.

Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2014-04-01

Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), ownership structure (content data only) and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22-26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11-18% of variance explained). Still, a large part of the variance in claim frequency is left unexplained, which is likely to be caused by variations in data at subdistrict scale and missing explanatory variables.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

The Potential Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Property Values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, J.

2015-12-01

It is well established that one consequence of increasing global sea level is that the frequency of flooding at low-lying coastal sites will increase. We review recent evidence that the effects coastal geometry will create substantial spatial variations in the changes in flooding frequency with scales of order 100km. Using a simple model of the evolution of coastal property values we demonstrate that a consequence of sea level rise is that the appreciation of coastal properties will peak, and then decline relative to higher properties. The time when the value reach a maximum is shown to depend upon the demand for the coastal property, and the local rate of change of flooding frequency due to sea level rise. The simple model is then extended to include, in an elementary manner, the effects on the value of adjacent but higher properties. We show that the effect of increased flooding frequency of the lower properties leads to an accelerated appreciation of the value of upland properties and an accelerated decline in the value of the coastal properties. We then provide some example calculations for selected sites. We conclude with a discussion of comparisons of the prediction of the analyses to recent data, and then comments on the impact of sea level rise on tax base of coastal communities.

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

2003-01-01

Regional equations for estimating 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood-peak discharges at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio were developed by means of ordinary and generalized least-squares (GLS) regression techniques. One-variable, simple equations and three-variable, full-model equations were developed on the basis of selected basin characteristics and flood-frequency estimates determined for 305 streamflow-gaging stations in Ohio and adjacent states. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from about 39 to 49 percent for the simple equations, and from about 34 to 41 percent for the full-model equations. Flood-frequency estimates determined by means of log-Pearson Type III analyses are reported along with weighted flood-frequency estimates, computed as a function of the log-Pearson Type III estimates and the regression estimates. Values of explanatory variables used in the regression models were determined from digital spatial data sets by means of a geographic information system (GIS), with the exception of drainage area, which was determined by digitizing the area within basin boundaries manually delineated on topographic maps. Use of GIS-based explanatory variables represents a major departure in methodology from that described in previous reports on estimating flood-frequency characteristics of Ohio streams. Examples are presented illustrating application of the regression equations to ungaged sites on ungaged and gaged streams. A method is provided to adjust regression estimates for ungaged sites by use of weighted and regression estimates for a gaged site on the same stream. A region-of-influence method, which employs a computer program to estimate flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites with similar characteristics, was also tested and compared to the GLS full-model equations. For all recurrence intervals, the GLS full-model equations had superior prediction accuracy relative to the simple equations and therefore are recommended for use.

Frequency and intensity of high-altitude floods over the last 3.5 ka in northwestern French Alps (Lake Anterne)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giguet-Covex, Charline; Arnaud, Fabien; Enters, Dirk; Poulenard, Jérôme; Millet, Laurent; Francus, Pierre; David, Fernand; Rey, Pierre-Jérôme; Wilhelm, Bruno; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques

2012-01-01

In central Western Europe, several studies have shown that colder Holocene periods, such as the Little Ice Age, also correspond to wet periods. However, in mountain areas which are highly sensitive to erosion processes and where precipitation events can be localized, past evolution of hydrological activity might be more complicated. To assess these past hydrological changes, a paleolimnological approach was applied on a 13.4-m-long sediment core taken in alpine Lake Anterne (2063 m asl) and representing the last 3.5 ka. Lake sedimentation is mainly composed of flood deposits triggered by precipitation events. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses show that floods were more frequent during cold periods while high-intensity flood events occurred preferentially during warmer periods. In mild temperature conditions, both flood patterns are present. This underlines the complex relationship between flood hazards and climatic change in mountain areas. During the warmer and/or dryer times of the end of Iron Age and the Roman Period, both the frequency and intensity of floods increased. This is interpreted as an effect of human-induced clearing for grazing activities and reveals that anthropogenic interferences must be taken into account when reconstructing climatic signals from natural archives.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. In order to increase the number of streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) available for analysis, expand the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across State boundaries, and build on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural U.S Geological Survey streamgages in the Southeast United States, a multistate approach was used to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The at-site flood-frequency analysis of annual peak-flow data for urban and small, rural streams (through September 30, 2011) included 116 urban streamgages and 32 small, rural streamgages, defined in this report as basins draining less than 1 square mile. The regional regression analysis included annual peak-flow data from an additional 338 rural streamgages previously included in U.S. Geological Survey flood-frequency reports and 2 additional rural streamgages in North Carolina that were not included in the previous Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation for a total of 488 streamgages included in the urban and small, rural regression analysis. The at-site flood-frequency analyses for the urban and small, rural streamgages included the expected moments algorithm, which is a modification of the Bulletin 17B log-Pearson type III method for fitting the statistical distribution to the logarithms of the annual peak flows. Where applicable, the flood-frequency analysis also included low-outlier and historic information. Additionally, the application of a generalized Grubbs-Becks test allowed for the detection of multiple potentially influential low outliers. Streamgage basin characteristics were determined using geographical information system techniques. Initial ordinary least squares regression simulations reduced the number of basin characteristics on the basis of such factors as statistical significance, coefficient of determination, Mallow’s Cp statistic, and ease of measurement of the explanatory variable. Application of generalized least squares regression techniques produced final predictive (regression) equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows for urban and small, rural ungaged basins for three hydrologic regions (HR1, Piedmont–Ridge and Valley; HR3, Sand Hills; and HR4, Coastal Plain), which previously had been defined from exploratory regression analysis in the Southeast rural flood-frequency investigation. Because of the limited availability of urban streamgages in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, additional urban streamgages in Florida and New Jersey were used in the regression analysis for this region. Including the urban streamgages in New Jersey allowed for the expansion of the applicability of the predictive equations in the Coastal Plain from 3.5 to 53.5 square miles. Average standard error of prediction for the predictive equations, which is a measure of the average accuracy of the regression equations when predicting flood estimates for ungaged sites, range from 25.0 percent for the 10-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Piedmont–Ridge and Valley region to 73.3 percent for the 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability regression equation for the Sand Hills region.

Inclusion of historical information in flood frequency analysis using a Bayesian MCMC technique: a case study for the power dam Orlík, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Hlavčová, Kamila; Viglione, Alberto

2010-01-01

The paper deals with at-site flood frequency estimation in the case when also information on hydrological events from the past with extraordinary magnitude are available. For the joint frequency analysis of systematic observations and historical data, respectively, the Bayesian framework is chosen, which, through adequately defined likelihood functions, allows for incorporation of different sources of hydrological information, e.g., maximum annual flood peaks, historical events as well as measurement errors. The distribution of the parameters of the fitted distribution function and the confidence intervals of the flood quantiles are derived by means of the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) technique. The paper presents a sensitivity analysis related to the choice of the most influential parameters of the statistical model, which are the length of the historical period h and the perception threshold X0. These are involved in the statistical model under the assumption that except for the events termed as ‘historical’ ones, none of the (unknown) peak discharges from the historical period h should have exceeded the threshold X0. Both higher values of h and lower values of X0 lead to narrower confidence intervals of the estimated flood quantiles; however, it is emphasized that one should be prudent of selecting those parameters, in order to avoid making inferences with wrong assumptions on the unknown hydrological events having occurred in the past. The Bayesian MCMC methodology is presented on the example of the maximum discharges observed during the warm half year at the station Vltava-Kamýk (Czech Republic) in the period 1877-2002. Although the 2002 flood peak, which is related to the vast flooding that affected a large part of Central Europe at that time, occurred in the near past, in the analysis it is treated virtually as a ‘historical’ event in order to illustrate some crucial aspects of including information on extreme historical floods into at-site flood frequency analyses.

Designing an 'expert knowledge' based approach for the quantification of historical floods - the case study of the Kinzig catchment in Southwest Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bösmeier, Annette; Glaser, Rüdiger; Stahl, Kerstin; Himmelsbach, Iso; Schönbein, Johannes

2017-04-01

Future estimations of flood hazard and risk for developing optimal coping and adaption strategies inevitably include considerations of the frequency and magnitude of past events. Methods of historical climatology represent one way of assessing flood occurrences beyond the period of instrumental measurements and can thereby substantially help to extend the view into the past and to improve modern risk analysis. Such historical information can be of additional value and has been used in statistical approaches like Bayesian flood frequency analyses during recent years. However, the derivation of quantitative values from vague descriptive information of historical sources remains a crucial challenge. We explored possibilities of parametrization of descriptive flood related data specifically for the assessment of historical floods in a framework that combines a hermeneutical approach with mathematical and statistical methods. This study forms part of the transnational, Franco-German research project TRANSRISK2 (2014 - 2017), funded by ANR and DFG, with the focus on exploring the floods history of the last 300 years for the regions of Upper and Middle Rhine. A broad data base of flood events had been compiled, dating back to AD 1500. The events had been classified based on hermeneutical methods, depending on intensity, spatial dimension, temporal structure, damages and mitigation measures associated with the specific events. This indexed database allowed the exploration of a link between descriptive data and quantitative information for the overlapping time period of classified floods and instrumental measurements since the end of the 19th century. Thereby, flood peak discharges as a quantitative measure of the severity of a flood were used to assess the discharge intervals for flood classes (upper and lower thresholds) within different time intervals for validating the flood classification, as well as examining the trend in the perception threshold over time. Furthermore, within a suitable time period, flood classes and other quantifiable indicators of flood intensity (number of damaged locations mentioned in historical sources, general availability of reports associated with a specific event) were combined with available peak discharges measurements. We argue that this information can be considered as 'expert knowledge' and used it to develop a fuzzy rule based model for deriving peak discharge estimates of pre-instrumental events that can finally be introduced into a flood frequency analysis.

The Tale of Flooding over the Central United States: Not Bigger but More Frequent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; Villarini, G.

2014-12-01

Flooding over the central United States is responsible for large societal and economic impacts, quantifiable in tens of fatalities and billions of dollars in damage. Because of these large repercussions, it is of paramount importance to examine whether the magnitude and/or frequency of flood events have been changing over the most recent decades. Here we address this research question using annual and seasonal maximum daily streamflow records from 774 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stations over the central United States (the study area includes North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan). The focus is on "long" records (i.e., at least 50 years of data) ending no earlier than 2011. Analyses are performed using block-maximum and peak-over-threshold approaches. We find limited evidence suggesting increasing or decreasing trends in the magnitude of flood peaks over this area. On the other hand, there is much stronger evidence of increasing frequency of flood events. Therefore, our results support the notion that it is not so much that the largest flood peaks are getting larger, but rather that we have been experiencing a larger number of flood events every year. By examining the rainfall records, we are able to link these increasing trends to similar patterns in heavy rainfall over the region.

Two millennia of torrential activity reconstructed from alpine lake sediments: towards regional patterns of extreme precipitation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, B.; Arnaud, F.; Giguet-Covex, C.; Sabatier, P.; Crouzet, C.; Delannoy, J. J.

2012-04-01

In mountain areas extreme precipitation events trigger torrential floods, characterized by a sudden and intense rise of discharge causing large human and economic losses. Their frequency and/or intensity are expected to increase in the context of global warming. However, the relationship between such events and climate changes remains difficult to assess. Long-term geological records of intense events could enable to extend documented records beyond the observational data for a better understanding of local to regional flood hazard patterns in relation to past climatic changes and hence improving predictive models. In this context, lake sediment records appear a relevant archive as they are continuous records in which the identification of high-energy sediment layers allows to reconstruct flood calendar. In addition, the flood intensity can be reconstructed from the coarse fraction of each flood layer. Frequency and intensity of past torrential floods were thus reconstructed from four high-elevation lake records of the French Alps, in the framework of Pygmalion research program. Studied sites were selected along a north-south transect over this region to investigate the flooding responses to different climatic influences (westerlies in the north and Mediterranean influences in the south). High-resolution geochemical and sedimentological analyses were undertaken for an exhaustive identification of flood layers and several dating methods (short-lived radionuclides, 14C, correlation with historic events, paleomagnetism) were combined to reduce age uncertainties as much as possible. Over the entire French Alps, the torrential-flood frequency increases at a secular timescale during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300-1900 AD). This increase seems in agreement with a regional high wetness, already described in the literature, possibly related to an increase in cyclonic activity. Superimposed to this secular trend, a pluri-decadal variability appears at different times depending on the site location (i.e. north-western or southern French Alps). In the north, peaks of flood frequency match well with high summer temperatures, while in the south they seem to be associated to solar maxima and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, the most extreme events occur during the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (800-1300 AD) in the north while in the south the intensity of these events increases during the cold LIA period. Our results reveal major differences in the evolutions of the torrential-flood activity at a regional scale. This suggests that extreme precipitations over this part of the Alps are influenced by different forcing factors. In the north-western French Alps, warming seems to plays an important role, favouring the increase of both flood frequency and intensity at a pluri-decadal time scale. Inversely, at the same time scale, in the Southern French Alps, flood frequency and intensity seem to be strongly linked to meso-scale atmospheric circulations in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (see abstract from Wilhelm et al. in session CL4.3 for details). Our study hence suggests one should expect a generalised decrease of torrential flood frequency all around the Alps. However, in northern French Alps only, an increase in torrential flood intensity is expected by analogy with the MWP pattern.

HydroApps: An R package for statistical simulation to use in regional analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, D.

2013-12-01

The HydroApps package is a newborn R extension initially developed to support the use of a recent model for flood frequency estimation developed for applications in Northwestern Italy; it also contains some general tools for regional analyses and can be easily extended to include other statistical models. The package is currently at an experimental level of development. The HydroApps is a corollary of the SSEM project for regional flood frequency analysis, although it was developed independently to support various instances of regional analyses. Its aim is to provide a basis for interplay between statistical simulation and practical operational use. In particular, the main module of the package deals with the building of the confidence bands of flood frequency curves expressed by means of their L-moments. Other functions include pre-processing and visualization of hydrologic time series, analysis of the optimal design-flood under uncertainty, but also tools useful in water resources management for the estimation of flow duration curves and their sensitivity to water withdrawals. Particular attention is devoted to the code granularity, i.e. the level of detail and aggregation of the code: a greater detail means more low-level functions, which entails more flexibility but reduces the ease of use for practical use. A balance between detail and simplicity is necessary and can be resolved with appropriate wrapping functions and specific help pages for each working block. From a more general viewpoint, the package has not really and user-friendly interface, but runs on multiple operating systems and it's easy to update, as many other open-source projects., The HydroApps functions and their features are reported in order to share ideas and materials to improve the ';technological' and information transfer between scientist communities and final users like policy makers.

Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates.

PubMed

Ben Dor, Yoav; Armon, Moshe; Ahlborn, Marieke; Morin, Efrat; Erel, Yigal; Brauer, Achim; Schwab, Markus Julius; Tjallingii, Rik; Enzel, Yehouda

2018-05-31

Floods comprise a dominant hydroclimatic phenomenon in aridlands with significant implications for humans, infrastructure, and landscape evolution worldwide. The study of short-term hydroclimatic variability, such as floods, and its forecasting for episodes of changing climate therefore poses a dominant challenge for the scientific community, and predominantly relies on modeling. Testing the capabilities of climate models to properly describe past and forecast future short-term hydroclimatic phenomena such as floods requires verification against suitable geological archives. However, determining flood frequency during changing climate is rarely achieved, because modern and paleoflood records, especially in arid regions, are often too short or discontinuous. Thus, coeval independent climate reconstructions and paleoflood records are required to further understand the impact of climate change on flood generation. Dead Sea lake levels reflect the mean centennial-millennial hydrological budget in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, floods in the large watersheds draining directly into the Dead Sea, are linked to short-term synoptic circulation patterns reflecting hydroclimatic variability. These two very different records are combined in this study to resolve flood frequency during opposing mean climates. Two 700-year-long, seasonally-resolved flood time series constructed from late Pleistocene Dead Sea varved sediments, coeval with significant Dead Sea lake level variations are reported. These series demonstrate that episodes of rising lake levels are characterized by higher frequency of floods, shorter intervals between years of multiple floods, and asignificantly larger number of years that experienced multiple floods. In addition, floods cluster into intervals of intense flooding, characterized by 75% and 20% increased frequency above their respective background frequencies during rising and falling lake-levels, respectively. Mean centennial precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean is therefore coupled with drastic changes in flood frequencies. These drastic changes in flood frequencies are linked to changes in the track, depth, and frequency of mid-latitude eastern Mediterranean cyclones, determining mean climatology resulting in wetter and drier regional climatic episodes.

Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E.

2017-06-01

The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najibi, Nasser; Devineni, Naresh

2018-06-01

Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence of trends during 1985-2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes of flood duration (i.e., short: 1-7, moderate: 8-20, and long: 21 days and above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased 4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections. While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors.

Best Statistical Distribution of flood variables for Johor River in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salarpour Goodarzi, M.; Yusop, Z.; Yusof, F.

2012-12-01

A complex flood event is always characterized by a few characteristics such as flood peak, flood volume, and flood duration, which might be mutually correlated. This study explored the statistical distribution of peakflow, flood duration and flood volume at Rantau Panjang gauging station on the Johor River in Malaysia. Hourly data were recorded for 45 years. The data were analysed based on water year (July - June). Five distributions namely, Log Normal, Generalize Pareto, Log Pearson, Normal and Generalize Extreme Value (GEV) were used to model the distribution of all the three variables. Anderson-Darling and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests were used to evaluate the best fit. Goodness-of-fit tests at 5% level of significance indicate that all the models can be used to model the distribution of peakflow, flood duration and flood volume. However, Generalize Pareto distribution is found to be the most suitable model when tested with the Anderson-Darling test and the, Kolmogorov-Smirnov suggested that GEV is the best for peakflow. The result of this research can be used to improve flood frequency analysis. Comparison between Generalized Extreme Value, Generalized Pareto and Log Pearson distributions in the Cumulative Distribution Function of peakflow

A joint probability approach for coincidental flood frequency analysis at ungauged basin confluences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Cheng

2016-03-12

A reliable and accurate flood frequency analysis at the confluence of streams is of importance. Given that long-term peak flow observations are often unavailable at tributary confluences, at a practical level, this paper presents a joint probability approach (JPA) to address the coincidental flood frequency analysis at the ungauged confluence of two streams based on the flow rate data from the upstream tributaries. One case study is performed for comparison against several traditional approaches, including the position-plotting formula, the univariate flood frequency analysis, and the National Flood Frequency Program developed by US Geological Survey. It shows that the results generatedmore » by the JPA approach agree well with the floods estimated by the plotting position and univariate flood frequency analysis based on the observation data.« less

Flood frequencies and durations and their response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: Global analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. J.; Kummu, M.; Lall, U.

2016-08-01

Floods are one of the most serious forms of natural hazards in terms of the damages they cause. In 2012 alone, flood damages exceeded 19 billion. A large proportion of the damages from several recent major flood disasters, such as those in South India and South Carolina (2015), England and Wales (2014), the Mississippi (2012), Thailand (2011), Queensland (Australia) (2010-2011), and Pakistan (2010), were related to the long duration of those flood events. However, most flood risk studies to date do not account for flood duration. In this paper, we provide the first global modelling exercise to assess the link between interannual climate variability and flood duration and frequency. Specifically, we examine relationships between simulated flood events and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results show that the duration of flooding appears to be more sensitive to ENSO than is the case for flood frequency. At the globally aggregated scale, we found floods to be significantly longer during both El Niño and La Niña years, compared to neutral years. At the scale of individual river basins, we found strong correlations between ENSO and both flood frequency and duration for a large number of basins, with generally stronger correlations for flood duration than for flood frequency. Future research on flood impacts should attempt to incorporate more information on flood durations.

Rising floodwaters: mapping impacts and perceptions of flooding in Indonesian Borneo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, Jessie A.; Wilson, Kerrie A.; Abram, Nicola K.; Nunn, Malcolm; Gaveau, David L. A.; Runting, Rebecca K.; Tarniati, Nina; Mengersen, Kerrie L.; Meijaard, Erik

2016-06-01

The roles of forest and wetland ecosystems in regulating flooding have drawn increasing attention in the contexts of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. However, data on floods are scarce in many of the countries where people are most exposed and vulnerable to their impacts. Here, our separate analyses of village interview surveys (364 villages) and news archives (16 sources) show that floods have major impacts on lives and livelihoods in Indonesian Borneo, and flooding risks are associated with features of the local climate and landscape, particularly land uses that have seen rapid expansions over the past 30 years. In contrast with government assessments, we find that flooding is far more widespread, and that frequent, local, events can have large cumulative impacts. Over three years, local news agencies reported floods that affected 868 settlements, 966 times (including 89 in urban areas), inundated at least 197 000 houses, and displaced more than 776 000 people, possibly as many as 1.5 million (i.e. 5%-10% of the total population). Spatial analyses based on surveys in 364 villages show that flood frequency is associated with land use in catchment areas, including forest cover and condition, and the area of wetlands, mines (open-cut coal or gold mines), and oil palm. The probability that floods have become more frequent over the past 30 years was higher for villages closer to mines, and in watersheds with more extensive oil palm, but lower in watersheds with greater cover of selectively-logged or intact forests. We demonstrate that in data-poor regions, multiple sources of information can be integrated to gain insights into the hydrological services provided by forest and wetland ecosystems, and motivate more comprehensive assessment of flooding risks and options for ecosystem-based adaptation.

Attenuating reaches and the regional flood response of an urbanizing drainage basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner-Gillespie, Daniel F.; Smith, James A.; Bates, Paul D.

The Charlotte, North Carolina metropolitan area has experienced extensive urban and suburban growth and sharply increasing trends in the magnitude and frequency of flooding. The hydraulics and hydrology of flood response in the region are examined through a combination of numerical modeling studies and diagnostic analyses of paired discharge observations from upstream-downstream gaging stations. The regional flood response is shown to strongly reflect urbanization effects, which increase flood peaks and decrease response times, and geologically controlled attenuating reaches, which decrease flood peaks and increase lag times. Attenuating reaches are characterized by systematic changes in valley bottom geometry and longitudinal profile. The morphology of the fluvial system is controlled by the bedrock geology, with pronounced changes occurring at or near contacts between intrusive igneous and metamorphic rocks. Analyses of wave celerity and flood peak attenuation over a range of discharge values for an 8.3 km valley bottom section of Little Sugar Creek are consistent with Knight and Shiono's characterization of the variation of flood wave velocity from in-channel conditions to valley bottom full conditions. The cumulative effect of variation in longitudinal profile, expansions and contractions of the valley bottom, floodplain roughness and sub-basin flood response is investigated using a two-dimensional, depth-averaged, finite element hydrodynamic model coupled with a distributed hydrologic model. For a 10.1 km stream reach of Briar Creek, with drainage area ranging from 13 km 2 at the upstream end of the reach to 49 km 2 at the downstream end, it is shown that flood response reflects a complex interplay of hydrologic and hydraulic processes on hillslopes and valley bottoms.

Magnitude and Frequency of Floods on Nontidal Streams in Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Dillow, Jonathan J.A.

2006-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of annual peak flows are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. This report, done in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) and the Delaware Geological Survey (DGS), presents methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on nontidal streams in Delaware at locations where streamgaging stations monitor streamflow continuously and at ungaged sites. Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude of floods for return frequencies ranging from 2 through 500 years. These methods are applicable to watersheds exhibiting a full range of urban development conditions. The report also describes StreamStats, a web application that makes it easy to obtain flood-frequency estimates for user-selected locations on Delaware streams. Flood-frequency estimates for ungaged sites are obtained through a process known as regionalization, using statistical regression analysis, where information determined for a group of streamgaging stations within a region forms the basis for estimates for ungaged sites within the region. One hundred and sixteen streamgaging stations in and near Delaware with at least 10 years of non-regulated annual peak-flow data available were used in the regional analysis. Estimates for gaged sites are obtained by combining the station peak-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and peak-flow estimates with regional estimates of skew and flood-frequency magnitudes. Example flood-frequency estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for: (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged locations, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. Regional regression equations applicable to ungaged sites in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain Physiographic Provinces of Delaware are presented. The equations incorporate drainage area, forest cover, impervious area, basin storage, housing density, soil type A, and mean basin slope as explanatory variables, and have average standard errors of prediction ranging from 28 to 72 percent. Additional regression equations that incorporate drainage area and housing density as explanatory variables are presented for use in defining the effects of urbanization on peak-flow estimates throughout Delaware for the 2-year through 500-year recurrence intervals, along with suggestions for their appropriate use in predicting development-affected peak flows. Additional topics associated with the analyses performed during the study are also discussed, including: (1) the availability and description of more than 30 basin and climatic characteristics considered during the development of the regional regression equations; (2) the treatment of increasing trends in the annual peak-flow series identified at 18 gaged sites, with respect to their relations with maximum 24-hour precipitation and housing density, and their use in the regional analysis; (3) calculation of the 90-percent confidence interval associated with peak-flow estimates from the regional regression equations; and (4) a comparison of flood-frequency estimates at gages used in a previous study, highlighting the effects of various improved analytical techniques.

Paleohydrology of flash floods in small desert watersheds in western Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, P. Kyle; Baker, Victor R.

2001-06-01

In this study, geological, historical, and meteorological data were combined to produce a regional chronology of flood magnitude and frequency in nine small basins (7-70 km2). The chronology spans more than 1000 years and demonstrates that detailed records of flood magnitude and frequency can be compiled in arid regions with little to no conventional hydrologic information. The recent (i.e., post-1950) flood history was evaluated by comparing a 50-year series of aerial photographs with precipitation data, ages of flood-transported beer cans, anthropogenic horizons in flood sediments, postbomb 14C dates on flotsam, and anecdotal accounts. Stratigraphic analysis of paleoflood deposits extended the regional flood record in time, and associated flood magnitudes were determined by incorporating relict high-water evidence into a hydraulic model. The results reveal a general consistency among the magnitudes of the largest floods in the historical and the paleoflood records and indicate that the magnitudes and relative frequencies of actual large floods are at variance with "100-year" flood magnitudes predicted by regional flood frequency models. This suggests that the predictive equations may not be appropriate for regulatory, management, or design purposes in the absence of additional, real data on flooding. Augmenting conventional approaches to regional flood magnitude and frequency analysis with real information derived from the alternative methods described here is a viable approach to improving assessments of regional flood characteristics in sparsely gaged desert areas.

Evaluation of the best fit distribution for partial duration series of daily rainfall in Madinah, western Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alahmadi, F.; Rahman, N. A.; Abdulrazzak, M.

2014-09-01

Rainfall frequency analysis is an essential tool for the design of water related infrastructure. It can be used to predict future flood magnitudes for a given magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. This study analyses the application of rainfall partial duration series (PDS) in the vast growing urban Madinah city located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Different statistical distributions were applied (i.e. Normal, Log Normal, Extreme Value type I, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type III, Log Pearson Type III) and their distribution parameters were estimated using L-moments methods. Also, different selection criteria models are applied, e.g. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC). The analysis indicated the advantage of Generalized Extreme Value as the best fit statistical distribution for Madinah partial duration daily rainfall series. The outcome of such an evaluation can contribute toward better design criteria for flood management, especially flood protection measures.

Evolving flood patterns in a Mediterranean region (1301-2012) and climatic factors - the case of Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrera-Escoda, A.; Llasat, M. C.

2015-01-01

Data on flood occurrence and flood impacts for the last seven centuries in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula have been analysed in order to characterise long-term trends, anomalous periods and their relationship with different climatic factors such as precipitation, general circulation and solar activity. Catastrophic floods (those that produce complete or partial destruction of infrastructure close to the river, and major damages in the overflowed area, including some zones away from the channels) do not present a statistically significant trend, whereas extraordinary floods (the channel is overflowed and some punctual severe damages can be produced in the infrastructures placed in the rivercourse or near it, but usually damages are slight) have seen a significant rise, especially from 1850 on, and were responsible for the total increase in flooding in the region. This rise can be mainly attributed to small coastal catchments, which have experienced a marked increase in developed land and population, resulting in changes in land use and greater vulnerability. Changes in precipitation alone cannot explain the variation in flood patterns, although a certain increase was shown in late summer-early autumn, when extraordinary floods are most frequently recorded. The relationship between the North Atlantic circulation and floods is not as strong, due to the important role of mesoscale factors in heavy precipitation in the northwest of the Mediterranean region. However, it can explain the variance to some extent, mainly in relation to the catastrophic floods experienced during the autumn. Solar activity has some impact on changes in catastrophic floods, with cycles related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the Gleissberg solar cycle. In addition, anomalous periods of high flood frequency in autumn generally occurred during periods of increased solar activity. The physical influence of the latter in general circulation patterns, the high troposphere and the stratosphere, has been analysed in order to ascertain its role in causing floods.

A new frequency domain analytical solution of a cascade of diffusive channels for flood routing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cimorelli, Luigi; Cozzolino, Luca; Della Morte, Renata; Pianese, Domenico; Singh, Vijay P.

2015-04-01

Simplified flood propagation models are often employed in practical applications for hydraulic and hydrologic analyses. In this paper, we present a new numerical method for the solution of the Linear Parabolic Approximation (LPA) of the De Saint Venant equations (DSVEs), accounting for the space variation of model parameters and the imposition of appropriate downstream boundary conditions. The new model is based on the analytical solution of a cascade of linear diffusive channels in the Laplace Transform domain. The time domain solutions are obtained using a Fourier series approximation of the Laplace Inversion formula. The new Inverse Laplace Transform Diffusive Flood Routing model (ILTDFR) can be used as a building block for the construction of real-time flood forecasting models or in optimization models, because it is unconditionally stable and allows fast and fairly precise computation.

Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

2016-04-01

Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine long-term variability in the number of major floods, annual exceedances of 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods during the last 50 - 80 years are estimated for all study gauges across North America and Europe, and for smaller groups of gauges defined by catchment size, location, climate, flood threshold, and period of record. Trends are computed using logistic regression techniques, supported by a suite of methods used to test the assumptions used in the analysis. We also analyse relationships between major flood occurrence and atmosphere/ocean indices (the AMO, NAO, PDO and SOI). Our analysis finds no compelling evidence for consistent changes over time in major-flood occurrence across North America and Europe, indicating that generalizations about major-flood occurrence trends across large domains or a diversity of catchment types are ungrounded. There are in fact more significant relationships between major-flood occurrence and the AMO than between flood occurrence and time. Flood occurrence overall (based on data from all 1204 gauges in our study) increased from 1961 to 2010 but not significantly, driven primarily by European increases. Non-significant increases were also found overall from 1931 to 2010 (322 gauges) but driven primarily by North American increases. Flood occurrence increased and decreased (including some significant changes) for the various sub-groups of gauges. Overall this study demonstrates that past changes in major-flood occurrence are highly complex and future changes will be likewise. International hydrologic networks containing minimally altered catchments will play a key role in understanding these complexities.

Flooding and Atmospheric Rivers across the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, G.; Barth, N. A.; White, K. D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis across the western United States is complicated by annual peak flow records that frequently contain flows generated from distinctly different flood generating mechanisms. Among the different flood agents, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for large, regional scale floods. USGS streamgaging stations in the central Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada, the central and southern California coast, and central Arizona show a mixture of 30-70% AR-generated flood peaks among the complete period of record. Bulletin17B and its proposed update (Draft Bulletin 17C) continue to recognize difficulties in determining flood frequency estimates among streamflow records that contain flood peaks coming from different flood-generating mechanisms, as is the case in the western United States. They recommend developing separate frequency curves when the hydrometeorologic mechanisms that generated the annual peak flows can be separated into distinct subpopulations. Yet challenges arise when trying to consistently quantify the physical (hydrometeorologic) processes that generated the observed flows, and even more when trying to account for them in flood frequency estimation. This study provides a general statistical framework to perform a process-driven flood frequency analysis using a weighted mixed population approach, highlighting the role that ARs play on the flood peak distribution.

Catchment scale afforestation for mitigating flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Mhari; Quinn, Paul; Bathurst, James; Birkinshaw, Stephen

2016-04-01

After the 2013-14 floods in the UK there were calls to 'forest the uplands' as a solution to reducing flood risk across the nation. At present, 1 in 6 homes in Britain are at risk of flooding and current EU legislation demands a sustainable, 'nature-based solution'. However, the role of forests as a natural flood management technique remains highly controversial, due to a distinct lack of robust evidence into its effectiveness in reducing flood risk during extreme events. SHETRAN, physically-based spatially-distributed hydrological models of the Irthing catchment and Wark forest sub-catchments (northern England) have been developed in order to test the hypothesis of the effect trees have on flood magnitude. The advanced physically-based models have been designed to model scale-related responses from 1, through 10, to 100km2, a first study of the extent to which afforestation and woody debris runoff attenuation features (RAFs) may help to mitigate floods at the full catchment scale (100-1000 km2) and on a national basis. Furthermore, there is a need to analyse the extent to which land management practices, and the installation of nature-based RAFs, such as woody debris dams, in headwater catchments can attenuate flood-wave movement, and potentially reduce downstream flood risk. The impacts of riparian planting and the benefits of adding large woody debris of several designs and on differing sizes of channels has also been simulated using advanced hydrodynamic (HiPIMS) and hydrological modelling (SHETRAN). With the aim of determining the effect forestry may have on flood frequency, 1000 years of generated rainfall data representative of current conditions has been used to determine the difference between current land-cover, different distributions of forest cover and the defining scenarios - complete forest removal and complete afforestation of the catchment. The simulations show the percentage of forestry required to have a significant impact on mitigating downstream flood risk at sub-catchment and catchment scale. Key words: Flood peak, nature-based solutions, forest hydrology, hydrological modelling, SHETRAN, flood frequency, flood magnitude, land-cover change, upland afforestation.

Effect of Sampling Period on Flood Frequency Distributions in the Susquehanna Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargar, M.; Beighley, R. E.

2010-12-01

Flooding is a devastating natural hazard that claims many human lives and significantly impact regional economies each year. Given the magnitude of flooding impacts, significant resources are dedicated to the development of forecasting models for early warning and evacuation planning, construction of flood defenses (levees/dams) to limit flooding, and the design of civil infrastructure (bridges, culverts, storm sewers) to convey flood flows without failing. In all these cases, it is particularly important to understand the potential flooding risk in terms of both recurrence interval (i.e., return period) and magnitude. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is a form of risk analysis used to extrapolate the return periods of floods beyond the gauged record. The technique involves using observed annual peak flow discharge data to calculate statistical information such as mean values, standard deviations, skewness, and recurrence intervals. Since discharge data for most catchments have been collected for periods of time less than 100 years, the estimation of the design discharge requires a degree of extrapolation. This study focuses on the assessment and modifications of flood frequency based discharges for sites with limited sampling periods. Here, limited sampling period is intended to capture two issues: (1) limited number of observations to adequately capture the flood frequency signal (i.e., minimum number of annual peaks needed) and (2) climate variability (i.e., sampling period contains primarily “wet” or “dry” periods only). Total of 34 gauges (more than 70 years of data) spread throughout the Susquehanna River basin (71,000 sq km) were used to investigate the impact of sampling period on flood frequency distributions. Data subsets ranging from 10 years to the total number of years available were created from the data for each gauging station. To estimate the flood frequency, the Log Pearson Type III distribution was fit to the logarithms of instantaneous annual peak flows following Bulletin 17B guidelines of the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. The resulting flood frequencies from these subsets were compared to the results from the entire record at each gauge. Based on the analysis, the minimum number of years required to obtain a reasonable flood frequency distribution was determined for each gauge. In addition, a method to adjust flood frequency distribution at a given gauging station with limited data based on other locations with longer periods of records was developed.

Interaction between Floods Occurrence and Gender and Age Structure of Population in Belarus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partasenok, Irina; Kvach, Alena

2017-04-01

The high spring snow-melting or rainfall flooding is the most important and actual event in hydrological cycle for the territory of Belarus. It caused an inundation that means exceeding of water level in the river above safe line and water floods to the adjacent territories. Inundations led to significant destruction of adjoining territories, huge financial damage and threat for human being. The frequencies of spring flooding in Belarus is defined by intensity of river network, its morphometric characteristics and hydrometeorological conditions during the season before floods. The aim of the present study is to estimate the spatial distribution of flood inundation frequency and gender and age structure of national population which might be suffer under extreme phenomena on the rivers. We analysed dangerous thresholds in the river water levels and the frequency of floods of various severity within different river basins, quantity of men and women and their ratio, the quantity of people in the age upper 70 years old as a most sensitive to the flood risk group of population and ratio of rural houses to the entire housing resources as a most vulnerable infrastructure in the different regions of the country. During floods the dangerous levels which cause the inundation have been recorded in the 4 largest river basins passes the territory of Belarus. The most frequent inundations (every two years) occur in the south of the country in the Prypyat` river basin, and in the Dnepr river basin (every 4-5 years) on the majority of the rivers. The hypothesis of our study is that quantity of women population is higher in the flood risk regions (we defined 30 regions with highly frequent inundations) and their ratio high with the age. The majority of them live in potential flood dangerous regions. The strong connections between size of the river basin, its potential flood risk and quantity of population in the region was established. The ratio of men and women over country varied within 6-7 %. But in the flood risk regions (mentioned above) the quantity of women rapidly increase up to 7-18%. And the largest ratio (15-18%) have been obtained for the regions with highest floods inundation frequency (low stream of the Dnepr, Berezina, Sozh and Neman rivers). The most sensitive group of population to flood risk is rural population who live in private houses in the large river valleys. And their average number for entire territory of Belarus lies within 37-47%. Another point of potential risk group concerns people in the age of 70 years and elder. According to the last census of enumeration the ratio of elderly people equal 11-12%. These people are the most open to injury from extreme phenomena on the rivers. In general, 772 thousands (8% of national population) women lives in the flood risk regions, almost 80 thousand among them are women elder 70 years who need extra care in the period of flood occurrence. This must be considered by stakeholders in support of making design in social policy of the country.

Statistical Development of Flood Frequency and Magnitude Equations for the Cosumnes and Mokelumne River Drainage Basins, Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, R. G.; Meyer, R. W.; Cornwell, K.

2003-12-01

In-basin statistical relations allow for development of regional flood frequency and magnitude equations in the Cosumnes River and Mokelumne River drainage basins. Current equations were derived from data collected through 1975, and do not reflect newer data with some significant flooding. Physical basin characteristics (area, mean basin elevation, slope of longest reach, and mean annual precipitation) were correlated against predicted flood discharges for each of the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500-year recurrence intervals in a multivariate analysis. Predicted maximum instantaneous flood discharges were determined using the PEAKFQ program with default settings, for 24 stream gages within the study area presumed not affected by flow management practices. For numerical comparisons, GIS-based methods using Spatial Analyst and the Arc Hydro Tools extension were applied to derive physical basin characteristics as predictor variables from a 30m digital elevation model (DEM) and a mean annual precipitation raster (PRISM). In a bivariate analysis, examination of Pearson correlation coefficients, F-statistic, and t & p thresholds show good correlation between area and flood discharges. Similar analyses show poor correlation for mean basin elevation, slope and precipitation, with flood discharge. Bivariate analysis suggests slope may not be an appropriate predictor term for use in the multivariate analysis. Precipitation and elevation correlate very well, demonstrating possible orographic effects. From the multivariate analysis, less than 6% of the variability in the correlation is not explained for flood recurrences up to 25 years. Longer term predictions up to 500 years accrue greater uncertainty with as much as 15% of the variability in the correlation left unexplained.

Comparing the index-flood and multiple-regression methods using L-moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malekinezhad, H.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Klik, A.

In arid and semi-arid regions, the length of records is usually too short to ensure reliable quantile estimates. Comparing index-flood and multiple-regression analyses based on L-moments was the main objective of this study. Factor analysis was applied to determine main influencing variables on flood magnitude. Ward’s cluster and L-moments approaches were applied to several sites in the Namak-Lake basin in central Iran to delineate homogeneous regions based on site characteristics. Homogeneity test was done using L-moments-based measures. Several distributions were fitted to the regional flood data and index-flood and multiple-regression methods as two regional flood frequency methods were compared. The results of factor analysis showed that length of main waterway, compactness coefficient, mean annual precipitation, and mean annual temperature were the main variables affecting flood magnitude. The study area was divided into three regions based on the Ward’s method of clustering approach. The homogeneity test based on L-moments showed that all three regions were acceptably homogeneous. Five distributions were fitted to the annual peak flood data of three homogeneous regions. Using the L-moment ratios and the Z-statistic criteria, GEV distribution was identified as the most robust distribution among five candidate distributions for all the proposed sub-regions of the study area, and in general, it was concluded that the generalised extreme value distribution was the best-fit distribution for every three regions. The relative root mean square error (RRMSE) measure was applied for evaluating the performance of the index-flood and multiple-regression methods in comparison with the curve fitting (plotting position) method. In general, index-flood method gives more reliable estimations for various flood magnitudes of different recurrence intervals. Therefore, this method should be adopted as regional flood frequency method for the study area and the Namak-Lake basin in central Iran. To estimate floods of various return periods for gauged catchments in the study area, the mean annual peak flood of the catchments may be multiplied by corresponding values of the growth factors, and computed using the GEV distribution.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Montana based on data through 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Omang, R.J.; Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1986-01-01

Equations are presented for estimating flood magnitudes for ungaged sites in Montana based on data through 1983. The State was divided into eight regions based on hydrologic conditions, and separate multiple regression equations were developed for each region. These equations relate annual flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and are applicable only to natural flow streams. In three of the regions, equations also were developed relating flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements. The standard errors of estimate for an exceedance probability of 1% ranged from 39% to 87%. Techniques are described for estimating annual flood magnitude and flood frequency information at ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites on the same stream. Included are curves relating flood frequency information to drainage area for eight major streams in the State. Maximum known flood magnitudes in Montana are compared with estimated 1 %-chance flood magnitudes and with maximum known floods in the United States. Values of flood magnitudes for selected exceedance probabilities and values of significant basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements for all gaging stations used in the analysis are tabulated. Included are 375 stations in Montana and 28 nearby stations in Canada and adjoining States. (Author 's abstract)

Techniques for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guetzkow, Lowell C.

1977-01-01

 Estimating relations have been developed to provide engineers and designers with improved techniques for defining flow-frequency characteristics to satisfy hydraulic planning and design requirements. The magnitude and frequency of floods up to the 100-year recurrence interval can be determined for most streams in Minnesota by methods presented. By multiple regression analysis, equations have been developed for estimating flood-frequency relations at ungaged sites on natural flow streams. Eight distinct hydrologic regions are delineated within the State with boundaries defined generally by river basin divides. Regression equations are provided for each region which relate selected frequency floods to significant basin parameters. For main-stem streams, graphs are presented showing floods for selected recurrence intervals plotted against contributing drainage area. Flow-frequency estimates for intervening sites along the Minnesota River, Mississippi River, and the Red River of the North can be derived from these graphs. Flood-frequency characteristics are tabulated for 201 paging stations having 10 or more years of record.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States. Part 13. Snake River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, C.A.; Broom, H.C.; Cummans, J.E.

1963-01-01

The magnitude of a flood of any selected frequency up to 50 years for any site on any stream in the Snake River basin can be determined by methods outlined in this report, with some limitations. The methods are not applicable for regulated streams, for drainage basins smaller than 10 or larger than 5,000 square miles, for streams fed by large springs, or for streams that have flow characteristics materially different from the regional pattern. The magnitude of a flood for a selected frequency at a given site is determined by using the appropriate composite frequency curve and the mean annual flood for the given site. The mean annual flood is computed from either a formula or a nomograph in which drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and a geographic factor are used as independent variables. The standard error of estimate for the computation of mean annual floods is plus 17 percent and minus 15 percent.Nine flood-frequency regions (A-I) are defined. In all except regions B and I, frequency relations vary with the mean altitude of the basin as well as with the geographic location; therefore, families of curves are required for 7 of the 9 flood-frequency regions.The report includes a brief description of the physiography and climate of the Snake River basin to explain the reason for the large variation in mean annual floods, which range from zero to about 27 cubic feet per second per square mile.Composite frequency curves and formulas for computing mean annual floods are based on all suitable flood data collected in the Snake River basin. Tables show the data used to derive the formula. Following the analysis of data are station descriptions and lists of peak stages and discharges for 295 gaging stations at which 5 or more years of annual flood records were collected pr'or to Sept. 30, 1957. Many flood peak data are not usable in defining the frequency curves and deriving the formula because of large diversions and regulation upstream from the gaging stations.

Techniques for estimating flood-depth frequency relations for streams in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.B.

1987-01-01

Multiple regression analyses are applied to data from 119 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow stations to develop equations that estimate baseline depth (depth of 50% flow duration) and 100-yr flood depth on unregulated streams in West Virginia. Drainage basin characteristics determined from the 100-yr flood depth analysis were used to develop 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 500-yr regional flood depth equations. Two regions with distinct baseline depth equations and three regions with distinct flood depth equations are delineated. Drainage area is the most significant independent variable found in the central and northern areas of the state where mean basin elevation also is significant. The equations are applicable to any unregulated site in West Virginia where values of independent variables are within the range evaluated for the region. Examples of inapplicable sites include those in reaches below dams, within and directly upstream from bridge or culvert constrictions, within encroached reaches, in karst areas, and where streams flow through lakes or swamps. (Author 's abstract)

Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

2017-12-01

Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

Flood characteristics of Alaskan streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamke, R.D.

1979-01-01

Peak discharge data for Alaskan streams are summarized and analyzed. Multiple-regression equations relating peak discharge magnitude and frequency to climatic and physical characteristics of 260 gaged basins were determined in order to estimate average recurrence interval of floods at ungaged sites. These equations are for 1.25-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year average recurrence intervals. In this report, Alaska was divided into two regions, one having a maritime climate with fall and winter rains and floods, the other having spring and summer floods of a variety or combinations of causes. Average standard errors of the six multiple-regression equations for these two regions were 48 and 74 percent, respectively. Maximum recorded floods at more than 400 sites throughout Alaska are tabulated. Maps showing lines of equal intensity of the principal climatic variables found to be significant (mean annual precipitation and mean minimum January temperature), and location of the 260 sites used in the multiple-regression analyses are included. Little flood data have been collected in western and arctic Alaska, and the predictive equations are therefore less reliable for those areas. (Woodard-USGS)

Visual Sensing for Urban Flood Monitoring

PubMed Central

Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

2015-01-01

With the increasing climatic extremes, the frequency and severity of urban flood events have intensified worldwide. In this study, image-based automated monitoring of flood formation and analyses of water level fluctuation were proposed as value-added intelligent sensing applications to turn a passive monitoring camera into a visual sensor. Combined with the proposed visual sensing method, traditional hydrological monitoring cameras have the ability to sense and analyze the local situation of flood events. This can solve the current problem that image-based flood monitoring heavily relies on continuous manned monitoring. Conventional sensing networks can only offer one-dimensional physical parameters measured by gauge sensors, whereas visual sensors can acquire dynamic image information of monitored sites and provide disaster prevention agencies with actual field information for decision-making to relieve flood hazards. The visual sensing method established in this study provides spatiotemporal information that can be used for automated remote analysis for monitoring urban floods. This paper focuses on the determination of flood formation based on image-processing techniques. The experimental results suggest that the visual sensing approach may be a reliable way for determining the water fluctuation and measuring its elevation and flood intrusion with respect to real-world coordinates. The performance of the proposed method has been confirmed; it has the capability to monitor and analyze the flood status, and therefore, it can serve as an active flood warning system. PMID:26287201

Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, Robert D.; Tomlinson, Edward M.

2000-01-01

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest of dam safety officials to incorporate a risk‐based analysis for design‐flood hydrology. Extreme or rare floods, with probabilities in the range of about 10−3 to 10−7 chance of occurrence per year, are of continuing interest to the hydrologic and engineering communities for purposes of planning and design of structures such as dams [National Research Council, 1988]. The National Research Council stresses that as much information as possible about floods needs to be used for evaluation of the risk and consequences of any decision. A regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach was developed to assist dam safety officials and floodplain managers in their assessments of the risk of large floods. The interdisciplinary components included documenting maximum paleofloods and a regional analyses of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site‐specific probable maximum precipitation study [Tomlinson and Solak, 1997]. The cost‐effective approach, which can be used in many other hydrometeorologic settings, was applied to Elkhead Reservoir in Elkhead Creek (531 km2) in northwestern Colorado; the regional study area was 10,900 km2. Paleoflood data using bouldery flood deposits and noninundation surfaces for 88 streams were used to document maximum flood discharges that have occurred during the Holocene. Several relative dating methods were used to determine the age of paleoflood deposits and noninundation surfaces. No evidence of substantial flooding was found in the study area. The maximum paleoflood of 135 m3 s−1 for Elkhead Creek is about 13% of the site‐specific probable maximum flood of 1020 m3 s−1. Flood‐frequency relations using the expected moments algorithm, which better incorporates paleoflood data, were developed to assess the risk of extreme floods. Envelope curves encompassing maximum rainfall (181 sites) and floods (218 sites) were developed for northwestern Colorado to help define maximum contemporary and Holocene flooding in Elkhead Creek and in a regional frequency context. Study results for Elkhead Reservoir were accepted by the Colorado State Engineer for dam safety certification.

Copula-based assessment of the relationship between food peaks and flood volumes using information on historical floods by Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Szolgay, Ján.; Bacigál, Tomáå.¡; Kohnová, Silvia

2010-05-01

Copula-based estimation methods of hydro-climatological extremes have increasingly been gaining attention of researchers and practitioners in the last couple of years. Unlike the traditional estimation methods which are based on bivariate cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), copulas are a relatively flexible tool of statistics that allow for modelling dependencies between two or more variables such as flood peaks and flood volumes without making strict assumptions on the marginal distributions. The dependence structure and the reliability of the joint estimates of hydro-climatological extremes, mainly in the right tail of the joint CDF not only depends on the particular copula adopted but also on the data available for the estimation of the marginal distributions of the individual variables. Generally, data samples for frequency modelling have limited temporal extent, which is a considerable drawback of frequency analyses in practice. Therefore, it is advised to deal with statistical methods that improve any part of the process of copula construction and result in more reliable design values of hydrological variables. The scarcity of the data sample mostly in the extreme tail of the joint CDF can be bypassed, e.g., by using a considerably larger amount of simulated data by rainfall-runoff analysis or by including historical information on the variables under study. The latter approach of data extension is used here to make the quantile estimates of the individual marginals of the copula more reliable. In the presented paper it is proposed to use historical information in the frequency analysis of the marginal distributions in the framework of Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulations. Generally, a Bayesian approach allows for a straightforward combination of different sources of information on floods (e.g. flood data from systematic measurements and historical flood records, respectively) in terms of a product of the corresponding likelihood functions. On the other hand, the MCMC algorithm is a numerical approach for sampling from the likelihood distributions. The Bayesian MCMC methods therefore provide an attractive way to estimate the uncertainty in parameters and quantile metrics of frequency distributions. The applicability of the method is demonstrated in a case study of the hydroelectric power station Orlík on the Vltava River. This site has a key role in the flood prevention of Prague, the capital city of the Czech Republic. The record length of the available flood data is 126 years from the period 1877-2002, while the flood event observed in 2002 that caused extensive damages and numerous casualties is treated as a historic one. To estimate the joint probabilities of flood peaks and volumes, different copulas are fitted and their goodness-of-fit are evaluated by bootstrap simulations. Finally, selected quantiles of flood volumes conditioned on given flood peaks are derived and compared with those obtained by the traditional method used in the practice of water management specialists of the Vltava River.

Impact of fresh and saline water flooding on leaf gas exchange in two Italian provenances of Tamarix africana Poiret.

PubMed

Abou Jaoudé, R; de Dato, G; Palmegiani, M; De Angelis, P

2013-01-01

In Mediterranean coastal areas, changes in precipitation patterns and seawater levels are leading to increased frequency of flooding and to salinization of estuaries and freshwater systems. Tamarix spp. are often the only woody species growing in such environments. These species are known for their tolerance to moderate salinity; however, contrasting information exists regarding their tolerance to flooding, and the combination of the two stresses has never been studied in Tamarix spp. Here, we analyse the photosynthetic responses of T. africana Poiret to temporary flooding (45 days) with fresh or saline water (200 mm) in two Italian provenances (Simeto and Baratz). The measurements were conducted before and after the onset of flooding, to test the possible cumulative effects of the treatments and effects on twig aging, and to analyse the responses of twigs formed during the experimental period. Full tolerance was evident in T. africana with respect to flooding with fresh water, which did not affect photosynthetic performances in either provenance. Saline flooding was differently tolerated by the two provenances. Moreover, salinity tolerance differently affected the two twig generations. In particular, a reduction in net assimilation rate (-48.8%) was only observed in Baratz twigs formed during the experimental period, compared to pre-existing twigs. This reduction was a consequence of non-stomatal limitations (maximum carboxylation rate and electron transport), probably as a result of higher Na transport to the twigs, coupled with reduced Na storage in the roots. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Revising time series of the Elbe river discharge for flood frequency determination at gauge Dresden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartl, S.; Schümberg, S.; Deutsch, M.

2009-11-01

The German research programme RIsk MAnagment of eXtreme flood events has accomplished the improvement of regional hazard assessment for the large rivers in Germany. Here we focused on the Elbe river at its gauge Dresden, which belongs to the oldest gauges in Europe with officially available daily discharge time series beginning on 1 January 1890. The project on the one hand aimed to extend and to revise the existing time series, and on the other hand to examine the variability of the Elbe river discharge conditions on a greater time scale. Therefore one major task were the historical searches and the examination of the retrieved documents and the contained information. After analysing this information the development of the river course and the discharge conditions were discussed. Using the provided knowledge, in an other subproject, a historical hydraulic model was established. Its results then again were used here. A further purpose was the determining of flood frequency based on all pre-processed data. The obtained knowledge about historical changes was also used to get an idea about possible future variations under climate change conditions. Especially variations in the runoff characteristic of the Elbe river over the course of the year were analysed. It succeeded to obtain a much longer discharge time series which contain fewer errors and uncertainties. Hence an optimized regional hazard assessment was realised.

Hydraulic analyses of water-surface profiles in the vicinity of the Coamo Dam and Highway 52 Bridge, southern Puerto Rico; flood analyses as related to the flood of October 7, 1985

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, K.G.; Quinones-Marquez, Ferdinand; Gonzalez, Ralph

1987-01-01

The magnitude, frequency and extent of the flood of October 7, 1985 at the Rio Coamo in the vicinity of the Coamo Dam and Highway 52 bridge in southern Puerto Rico, were investigated. The observed flood profiles were used to calibrate a step-backwater model. The calibrated model was then used to investigate several alternative flow conditions in the vicinity of the bridge. The peak discharge of the flood at the Highway 52 bridge was 72,000 cu ft/sec. This peak discharge was determined from the peak computed at a reach in the vicinity of the Banos de Coamo, about 1.2 mi upstream from the bridge. The computed discharge at the Banos de Coamo of 66,000 cu ft/sec was adjusted to the dam and bridge location by multiplying it by the ratio of the drainage areas raised to the 0.83 power. The flood had a recurrence interval of about 100 yr, exceeding all previously known floods at the site. The flood overtopped the spillway and levee of the Coamo Dam just upstream of Highway 52. The flow over the spillway was 54,000 cu ft/sec. Flow over the levee was about 18,000 cu ft/sec. About 10,000 cu ft/sec of the flow over the levee returned to the main channel at the base of the embankment at the northeast approach to the bridge. The remaining 8,000 cu ft/sec flowed south through the underpass on Highway 153. The embankment and shoulder on the northern span of the bridge were eroded with the eventual collapse of the approach slab. (Author 's abstract)

Magnitude and frequency of summer floods in western New Mexico and eastern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennon, F.W.

1955-01-01

Numerous small reservoirs and occasional water-spreading structures are being built on the ephemeral streams draining the public and Indian lands of the Southwest as part of the Soil and Moisture Conservation Program of the Bureau of Land Management and Bureau of Indian Affairs.  Economic design of these structures requires some knowledge of the flood rates and volumes.  Information concerning flood frequencies on areas less than 100 square miles is deficient throughout the country, particularly on intermittent streams of the Southwest.  Design engineers require a knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of flood volumes for the planning of adequate reservoir capacities and a knowledge of frequency and magnitude of flood peaks for spillway design.  Hence, this study deals with both flood volumes and peaks, the same statistical methods being used to develop frequency curves for each.

Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, Bruno; Vogel, Hendrik; Crouzet, Christian; Etienne, David; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

2016-04-01

The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 event layers, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The layer thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale, summer-to-autumn convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both Atlantic (local events) and Mediterranean (meso-scale events) climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1300-1900). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both, the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 950-1250). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of high-intensity flood events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in course of 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties in future evolution of flood intensity lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors between the two periods (greenhouse gases vs. solar/volcanic eruptions).

Solar modulation of flood frequency in Central Europe during spring and summer on inter-annual to millennial time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, M.; Muscheler, R.; Brauer, A.

2015-10-01

Solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research. We analyze solar forcing of flood frequency in Central Europe on inter-annual to millennial time-scales using daily discharge data of River Ammer (southern Germany) back to AD 1926 and revisiting the 5500 year flood layer time-series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee. Flood frequency in the discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity during solar cycles 16-23 (r = -0.47, p < 0.0001, n = 73). Flood layer frequency (n = 1501) in the sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variability and significant correlations to 10Be fluxes from a Greenland ice core (r = 0.45, p < 0.0001) and 14C production rates (r =0.36, p < 0.0001), proxy records of solar activity. Flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. These correlations between flood frequency and solar activity might provide empirical support for the solar top-down mechanism expected to modify the mid-latitude storm tracks over Europe by model studies. A lag of flood frequency responses in the Ammer discharge record to changes in solar activity of about one to three years could be explained by a modelled ocean-atmosphere feedback delaying the atmospheric reaction to solar activity variations up to a few years.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martínez Trepat, Oriol; Nghia Hung, Nguyen; Thi Chinh, Do; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2016-04-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial-pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Using remotely sensed data and stochastic models to simulate realistic flood hazard footprints across the continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Sampson, C. C.; Smith, A.; Wing, O.; Neal, J. C.

2017-12-01

Remotely sensed data has transformed the field of large scale hydraulic modelling. New digital elevation, hydrography and river width data has allowed such models to be created for the first time, and remotely sensed observations of water height, slope and water extent has allowed them to be calibrated and tested. As a result, we are now able to conduct flood risk analyses at national, continental or even global scales. However, continental scale analyses have significant additional complexity compared to typical flood risk modelling approaches. Traditional flood risk assessment uses frequency curves to define the magnitude of extreme flows at gauging stations. The flow values for given design events, such as the 1 in 100 year return period flow, are then used to drive hydraulic models in order to produce maps of flood hazard. Such an approach works well for single gauge locations and local models because over relatively short river reaches (say 10-60km) one can assume that the return period of an event does not vary. At regional to national scales and across multiple river catchments this assumption breaks down, and for a given flood event the return period will be different at different gauging stations, a pattern known as the event `footprint'. Despite this, many national scale risk analyses still use `constant in space' return period hazard layers (e.g. the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas) in their calculations. Such an approach can estimate potential exposure, but will over-estimate risk and cannot determine likely flood losses over a whole region or country. We address this problem by using a stochastic model to simulate many realistic extreme event footprints based on observed gauged flows and the statistics of gauge to gauge correlations. We take the entire USGS gauge data catalogue for sites with > 45 years of record and use a conditional approach for multivariate extreme values to generate sets of flood events with realistic return period variation in space. We undertake a number of quality checks of the stochastic model and compare real and simulated footprints to show that the method is able to re-create realistic patterns even at continental scales where there is large variation in flood generating mechanisms. We then show how these patterns can be used to drive a large scale 2D hydraulic to predict regional scale flooding.

On Flood Frequency in Urban Areas under Changing Conditions and Implications on Stormwater Infrastructure Planning and Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norouzi, A.; Habibi, H.; Nazari, B.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Zhang, Y.

2016-12-01

With urbanization and climate change, many areas in the US and abroad face increasing threats of flash flooding. Due to nonstationarities arising from changes in land cover and climate, however, it is not readily possible to project how such changes may modify flood frequency. In this work, we describe a simple spatial stochastic model for rainfall-to-areal runoff in urban areas, evaluate climatological mean and variance of mean areal runoff (MAR) over a range of catchment scale, translate them into runoff frequency, which is used as a proxy for flood frequency, and assess its sensitivity to precipitation, imperviousness and soil, and their changes as a function of catchment scale and magnitude of precipitation. The findings indicate that, due to large sensitivity of frequency of MAR to multiple hydrometeorological and physiographic factors, estimation of flood frequency for urban catchments is inherently more uncertain. The approach used in this work is useful in developing bounds for flood frequencies in urban areas under nonstationary conditions arising from urbanization and climate change.

Peak-flow frequency and extreme flood potential for streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, R.M.; Lanning-Rush, Jennifer

1996-01-01

The Highland Lakes on the Colorado River are in an area periodically threatened by large storms and floods. Many storms exceeding 10 inches (in.) in depth have been documented in the area, including some with depths approaching 40 in. These storms typically produce large peak discharges that often threaten lives and property. The storms sometimes occur with little warning. Steep stream slopes and thin soils characteristic of the area often cause large peak discharges and rapid movement of floods through watersheds. A procedure to predict the discharge associated with large floods is needed for the area so that appropriate peak discharges can be used in the design of flood plains, bridges, and other structures.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), studied flood peaks for streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes of central Texas. The Highland Lakes are a series of reservoirs constructed on the Colorado River. The chain of lakes (and year each was completed) comprises Lake Buchanan (1937), Inks Lake (1938), Lake Lyndon B. Johnson (1950), Lake Marble Falls (1951), Lake Travis (1942), and lake Austin (1890). The study area (fig. 1), which includes all or parts of 21 counties in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, was selected because most streams in the area have flood characteristics similar to streams entering the Highland Lakes. The entire study area is in a region subject to large storms.The purpose of this report is to present (1) peak-flow frequency data for stations and equations to estimate peak-flow frequency for large streams with natural drainage basins in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, and (2) a technique to estimate the extreme flood peak discharges for the large streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes. Peak-flow frequency in this report refers to the peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2,5, 10,25,50, and 100 years. A large stream is defined as having a contributing drainage area of at least0.5 square mile (mi’); and a natural drainage basin has less than 10 percent impervious cover and less than 10 percent of its drainage area controlled by reservoirs.The mean annual precipitation in the study area for 1951–80 ranges from about 20 in, in western Kimble County to about 34 in. at the eastern edge of Williamson County (Riggio and others, 1987, p. 23). Many large storms and catastrophic floods have occurred along or in the adjacent area west of the Balcones escarpment (fig. 1) (Dalrymple and others, 1939, Breeding and Dalrymple, 1944; Breeding and Montgomery, 1954; Schroeder and others, 1979; Caran and Baker, 1986; Slade, 1986; and Hejl and others, 1996). About a dozen storms with precipitation depths exceeding 15 in. in a few days or less have been documented in this area during the past 60 years. Some of these storms have produced world-record precipitation depths for durations less than 48 hours. The documentation for these and for other large storms indicates that they are not uniformly distributed temporally or spatially; therefore, the recurrence intervals for such storms cannot be verified (Slade, 1986, p. 17). These large storms can cause flood peaks that would exceed those that can be predicted accurately by analyses of available precipitation or flood data.The peak-flow frequency was estimated for each of 55 qualified stations in the study area (table 1) following guidelines established by the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (1982). Qualified streamflow-gaging stations for the study area are those with at least 8 years of data from natural drainage basins (sites 1–55, fig. 1). Equations to estimate peak-flow frequency for large streams with natural drainage basins in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes were developed. These equations were developed from selected stations on the basis of the relation between peak-flow frequency and basin characteristics for each station. The entire period of systematic record (through 1993) was used in the frequency analyses for each qualified station except for stations at which streamflow was regulated during part of the record. These stations are Leon River near Belton (site 1): Lampasas River near Youngsport (site 5); North Fork San Gabriel River near Georgetown (site 6); San Gabriel River at Laneport (site 12); Brady Creek at Brady (site 16); San Saba River at San Saba (site 18); Rebecca Creek near Spring Branch (site 51); and Cibolo Creek near Boerne (site 54). One or more reservoirs were completed in the basin of each of these stations during the period of systematic record. These reservoirs caused the annual peak discharges to become regulated. The annual peak discharges for 1994 and 1995 at Sandy Creek near Kingsland (site 28) were used to include data associated with extreme flooding that occurred in 1995.The extreme flood potential in the study area was investigated using an "envelope" or "extreme flood potential" curve. This curve is based on the relation between the contributing drainage area and (1) the maximum peak discharge of record for each qualified station (table 1); (2) substantial peak discharges documented for 84 sites without stations (sites 56–139, fig. 1, table 2); and (3) 100-year peak discharges from peak-flow frequency for stations (table 1). Peak discharges estimated from this curve represent the extreme flood potential for the study area.

The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

Estimation of frequency based flood peak for an ungauged watershed using field calibration : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-01

This report presents: (1) calculation of flood frequency for the Ward Creek watershed using eight flood prediction models, (2) establishment of the rating curve (stage-discharge relation) for the Ward Creek watershed, (3) evaluation of these flood pr...

Identification of Flood Reactivity Regions via the Functional Clustering of Hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Manuela I.; Viviroli, Daniel; Furrer, Reinhard; Seibert, Jan; Favre, Anne-Catherine

2018-03-01

Flood hydrograph shapes contain valuable information on the flood-generation mechanisms of a catchment. To make good use of this information, we express flood hydrograph shapes as continuous functions using a functional data approach. We propose a clustering approach based on functional data for flood hydrograph shapes to identify a set of representative hydrograph shapes on a catchment scale and use these catchment-specific sets of representative hydrographs to establish regions of catchments with similar flood reactivity on a regional scale. We applied this approach to flood samples of 163 medium-size Swiss catchments. The results indicate that three representative hydrograph shapes sufficiently describe the hydrograph shape variability within a catchment and therefore can be used as a proxy for the flood behavior of a catchment. These catchment-specific sets of three hydrographs were used to group the catchments into three reactivity regions of similar flood behavior. These regions were not only characterized by similar hydrograph shapes and reactivity but also by event magnitudes and triggering event conditions. We envision these regions to be useful in regionalization studies, regional flood frequency analyses, and to allow for the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in ungauged catchments. The clustering approach based on functional data which establish these regions is very flexible and has the potential to be extended to other geographical regions or toward the use in climate impact studies.

What Is Driving the Observed Changes in Flooding in the Turkey River in Iowa?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C.; Yu, G.; Wright, D.

2017-12-01

Flooding can have severe societal, economic, and environmental consequences. In the United States-and worldwide-flooding causes fatalities and billions of dollars in economic loss. Recent research has pointed to changing flood risks in the Midwestern United States. However, we have a limited understanding of what natural and human factors are driving these changes. Researchers have proposed several possible explanations. Increasing intensity of short-duration summertime rainfall, reduced snow cover and earlier snow and soil thaw, changes in land surface evapotranspiration, and the effects of urbanization and agricultural management practices may all play roles in the shifts seen in the hydrologic cycle and flooding in Midwest. This study intends to look at the changes in the region on a smaller scale, whereas most previous research has examined at broad regional trends. Our focus will be on the agricultural Turkey River watershed in northeastern Iowa, where the flood hydroclimatology shows an abrupt shift around the year 1990 toward lower mean annual floods and dramatic increases in the magnitude and frequency of the largest floods. Analyses of land use, temperature, rainfall, river flow, and atmospheric properties, as well as simple continuous hydrologic simulations will aid in our understanding of the flood behavior of Turkey River and its drivers. In doing so, we hope to shed light on the causes of the changes in flooding and hydrology more generally that are taking place throughout the region.

Flash floods in the Tatra Mountain streams: frequency and triggers.

PubMed

Ballesteros-Cánovas, J A; Czajka, B; Janecka, K; Lempa, M; Kaczka, R J; Stoffel, M

2015-04-01

Flash floods represent a frequently recurring natural phenomenon in the Tatra Mountains. On the northern slopes of the mountain chain, located in Poland, ongoing and expected future changes in climate are thought to further increase the adverse impacts of flash floods. Despite the repeat occurrence of major floods in the densely populated foothills of the Polish Tatras, the headwaters have been characterized by a surprising lack of data, such that any analysis of process variability or hydrometeorological triggers has been largely hampered so far. In this study, dendrogeomorphic techniques have been employed in four poorly-gauged torrential streams of the northern slope of the Tatra Mountains to reconstruct temporal and spatial patterns of past events. Using more than 1100 increment cores of trees injured by past flash floods, we reconstruct 47 events covering the last 148 years and discuss synoptic situations leading to the triggering of flash floods with the existing meteorological and flow gauge data. Tree-ring analyses have allowed highlighting the seasonality of events, providing new insights about potential hydrometeorological triggers as well as a differentiating flash flood activity between catchments. Results of this study could be useful to design future strategies to deal with flash flood risks at the foothills of the Polish Tatras and in the Vistula River catchment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Methods for estimating annual exceedance-probability discharges and largest recorded floods for unregulated streams in rural Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Southard, Rodney E.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression analysis techniques were used to develop a set of equations for rural ungaged stream sites for estimating discharges with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities, which are equivalent to annual flood-frequency recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years, respectively. Basin and climatic characteristics were computed using geographic information software and digital geospatial data. A total of 35 characteristics were computed for use in preliminary statewide and regional regression analyses. Annual exceedance-probability discharge estimates were computed for 278 streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a log-Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak discharges for each streamgage using annual peak-discharge data from water year 1844 to 2012. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the annual exceedance-probability analyses, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect potentially influential low floods. Annual peak flows less than a minimum recordable discharge at a streamgage were incorporated into the at-site station analyses. An updated regional skew coefficient was determined for the State of Missouri using Bayesian weighted least-squares/generalized least squares regression analyses. At-site skew estimates for 108 long-term streamgages with 30 or more years of record and the 35 basin characteristics defined for this study were used to estimate the regional variability in skew. However, a constant generalized-skew value of -0.30 and a mean square error of 0.14 were determined in this study. Previous flood studies indicated that the distinct physical features of the three physiographic provinces have a pronounced effect on the magnitude of flood peaks. Trends in the magnitudes of the residuals from preliminary statewide regression analyses from previous studies confirmed that regional analyses in this study were similar and related to three primary physiographic provinces. The final regional regression analyses resulted in three sets of equations. For Regions 1 and 2, the basin characteristics of drainage area and basin shape factor were statistically significant. For Region 3, because of the small amount of data from streamgages, only drainage area was statistically significant. Average standard errors of prediction ranged from 28.7 to 38.4 percent for flood region 1, 24.1 to 43.5 percent for flood region 2, and 25.8 to 30.5 percent for region 3. The regional regression equations are only applicable to stream sites in Missouri with flows not significantly affected by regulation, channelization, backwater, diversion, or urbanization. Basins with about 5 percent or less impervious area were considered to be rural. Applicability of the equations are limited to the basin characteristic values that range from 0.11 to 8,212.38 square miles (mi2) and basin shape from 2.25 to 26.59 for Region 1, 0.17 to 4,008.92 mi2 and basin shape 2.04 to 26.89 for Region 2, and 2.12 to 2,177.58 mi2 for Region 3. Annual peak data from streamgages were used to qualitatively assess the largest floods recorded at streamgages in Missouri since the 1915 water year. Based on existing streamgage data, the 1983 flood event was the largest flood event on record since 1915. The next five largest flood events, in descending order, took place in 1993, 1973, 2008, 1994 and 1915. Since 1915, five of six of the largest floods on record occurred from 1973 to 2012.

Peak Discharge, Flood Profile, Flood Inundation, and Debris Movement Accompanying the Failure of the Upper Reservoir at the Taum Sauk Pump Storage Facility near Lesterville, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rydlund, Jr., Paul H.

2006-01-01

The Taum Sauk pump-storage hydroelectric power plant located in Reynolds County, Missouri, uses turbines that operate as pumps and hydraulic head generated by discharging water from an upper to a lower reservoir to produce electricity. A 55-acre upper reservoir with a 1.5- billion gallon capacity was built on top of Proffit Mountain, approximately 760 feet above the floodplain of the East Fork Black River. At approximately 5:16 am on December 14, 2005, a 680-foot wide section of the upper reservoir embankment failed suddenly, sending water rushing down the western side of Proffit Mountain and emptying into the floodplain of East Fork Black River. Flood waters from the upper reservoir flowed downstream through Johnson's Shut-Ins State Park and into the lower reservoir of the East Fork Black River. Floods such as this present unique challenges and opportunities to analyze and document peak-flow characteristics, flood profiles, inundation extents, and debris movement. On December 16, 2005, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data were collected and used to support hydraulic analyses, forensic failure analyses, damage extent, and mitigation of future disasters. To evaluate the impact of sedimentation in the lower reservoir, a bathymetric survey conducted on December 22 and 23, 2005, was compared to a previous bathymetric survey conducted in April, 2005. Survey results indicated the maximum reservoir capacity difference of 147 acre-feet existed at a pool elevation of 730 feet. Peak discharge estimates of 289,000 cubic feet per second along Proffit Mountain and 95,000 cubic feet per second along the East Fork Black River were determined through indirect measurement techniques. The magnitude of the embankment failure flood along the East Fork Black River was approximately 4 times greater than the 100-year flood frequency estimate of 21,900 cubic feet per second, and approximately 3 times greater than the 500-year flood frequency estimate of 30,500 cubic feet per second. Dynamic wave unsteady flow models Dam Break (DAMBRK) and Unsteady NETwork (UNET) were used to route the flood wave from the embankment failure breach of the upper reservoir to the spillway of the lower reservoir. Simulated velocities ranged from 20 to 51 feet per second along Proffit Mountain and 12 to 32 feet per second along the East Fork Black River. Simulated arrival time of the flood wave took approximately 5.5 to 6.0 minutes to enter into the floodplain of the East Fork Black River, and roughly 29 minutes to begin filling the lower reservoir. Simulated shear stress values reached as high as 232 pounds per square foot along the slope of Proffit Mountain and 144 pounds per square foot within the Shut-Ins. Flood depths from the embankment failure may have reached greater than 50 feet along Proffit Mountain and as much as 30 to 40 feet along the East Fork Black River. A steady-state model was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood frequency profiles along the East Fork Black River. A similar flood event, hypothetically resulting from a breach of the east embankment above Taum Sauk Creek, was simulated along with the 100- and 500-year flood profiles on Taum Sauk Creek. Estimated extents of flood inundation were developed for each profile. Debris movement was extensive as a result of the flood wave moving down Proffit Mountain and through Johnson's Shut-Ins State Park. A quantitative assessment of debris movement was conducted to benefit rehabilitation efforts within the park. Approximately 180 acres of timber were affected as a result of the embankment failure flood.

Methods for Estimating Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in Rural Basins in the Southeastern United States: South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2009-01-01

For more than 50 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations that can be used to estimate flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. Flood magnitude relates to the volume of flow that occurs over some period of time and usually is presented in cubic feet per second. Flood frequency relates to the probability of occurrence of a flood; that is, on average, what is the likelihood that a flood with a specified magnitude will occur in any given year (1 percent chance, 10 percent chance, 50 percent chance, and so on). Such flood estimates are needed for the efficient design of bridges, highway embankments, levees, and other structures near streams. In addition, these estimates are needed for the effective planning and management of land and water resources, to protect lives and property in flood-prone areas, and to determine flood-insurance rates.

The National Flood Frequency Program, version 3 : a computer program for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Crouse, Michele Y.

2002-01-01

For many years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations for estimating flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. These regression equations are used to transfer flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, these equations have been developed on a Statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs with specific State Departments of Transportation. In 1994, the USGS released a computer program titled the National Flood Frequency Program (NFF), which compiled all the USGS available regression equations for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States and Puerto Rico. NFF was developed in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Since the initial release of NFF, the USGS has produced new equations for many areas of the Nation. A new version of NFF has been developed that incorporates these new equations and provides additional functionality and ease of use. NFF version 3 provides regression-equation estimates of flood-peak discharges for unregulated rural and urban watersheds, flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals. The Program also provides weighting techniques to improve estimates of flood-peak discharges for gaging stations and ungaged sites. The information provided by NFF should be useful to engineers and hydrologists for planning and design applications. This report describes the flood-regionalization techniques used in NFF and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The NFF software and the documentation for the regression equations included in NFF are available at http://water.usgs.gov/software/nff.html.

Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, B.; Vogel, H.; Crouzet, C.; Etienne, D.; Anselmetti, F. S.

2016-02-01

Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 event layers, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The layer thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale, summer-to-autumn convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both Atlantic (local events) and Mediterranean (mesoscale events) climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1300-1900). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 950-1250). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of high-intensity flood events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in the course of the 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties in future evolution of flood intensity lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors between the two periods (greenhouse gases vs. solar and/or volcanic eruptions).

Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, B.; Vogel, H.; Crouzet, C.; Etienne, D.; Anselmetti, F. S.

2015-10-01

The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 turbidites, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The deposit thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both, the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of these events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in course of 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors (greenhouse gases vs. solar/volcanic eruptions).

Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

PubMed Central

Hirsch, R. M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2016-01-01

Abstract Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large‐scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States. PMID:27917010

Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2016-01-01

Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large-scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States.

Conditional flood frequency and catchment state: a simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brettschneider, Marco; Bourgin, François; Merz, Bruno; Andreassian, Vazken; Blaquiere, Simon

2017-04-01

Catchments have memory and the conditional flood frequency distribution for a time period ahead can be seen as non-stationary: it varies with the catchment state and climatic factors. From a risk management perspective, understanding the link of conditional flood frequency to catchment state is a key to anticipate potential periods of higher flood risk. Here, we adopt a simulation approach to explore the link between flood frequency obtained by continuous rainfall-runoff simulation and the initial state of the catchment. The simulation chain is based on i) a three state rainfall generator applied at the catchment scale, whose parameters are estimated for each month, and ii) the GR4J lumped rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters are calibrated with all available data. For each month, a large number of stochastic realizations of the continuous rainfall generator for the next 12 months are used as inputs for the GR4J model in order to obtain a large number of stochastic realizations for the next 12 months. This process is then repeated for 50 different initial states of the soil moisture reservoir of the GR4J model and for all the catchments. Thus, 50 different conditional flood frequency curves are obtained for the 50 different initial catchment states. We will present an analysis of the link between the catchment states, the period of the year and the strength of the conditioning of the flood frequency compared to the unconditional flood frequency. A large sample of diverse catchments in France will be used.

Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

PubMed

Reed, Duncan W

2002-07-15

Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin?

An analysis of the magnitude and frequency of floods on Oahu, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nakahara, R.H.

1980-01-01

An analysis of available peak-flow data for the island of Oahu, Hawaii, was made by using multiple regression techniques which related flood-frequency data to basin and climatic characteristics for 74 gaging stations on Oahu. In the analysis, several different groupings of stations were investigated, including divisions by geographic location and size of drainage area. The grouping consisting of two leeward divisions and one windward division produced the best results. Drainage basins ranged in area from 0.03 to 45.7 square miles. Equations relating flood magnitudes of selected frequencies to basin characteristics were developed for the three divisions of Oahu. These equations can be used to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods for any site, gaged or ungaged, for any desired recurrence interval from 2 to 100 years. Data on basin characteristics, flood magnitudes for various recurrence intervals from individual station-frequency curves, and computed flood magnitudes by use of the regression equation are tabulated to provide the needed data. (USGS)

Conversion to pine: Changes in timing and magnitude of high and low flows.

Treesearch

Yusuf Serengil; Wayne T. Swank; Mark S. Riedel; James M. Vose

2011-01-01

Understanding watershed responses to extreme events is important for assessing potential impacts of floods, droughts, episodic pollution, and other external driving variables on watershed resources. In this study, we combine trend and frequency analyses with paired watershed techniques to evaluate the long-term high- and low-flow data from Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory...

Links between seawater flooding, soil ammonia oxidiser communities and their response to changes in salinity.

PubMed

Nacke, Heiko; Schöning, Ingo; Schindler, Malte; Schrumpf, Marion; Daniel, Rolf; Nicol, Graeme W; Prosser, James I

2017-11-01

Coastal areas worldwide are challenged by climate change-associated increases in sea level and storm surge quantities that potentially lead to more frequent flooding of soil ecosystems. Currently, little is known of the effects of inundation events on microorganisms controlling nitrification in these ecosystems. The goal of this study was to investigate the impact of seawater flooding on the abundance, community composition and salinity tolerance of soil ammonia oxidisers. Topsoil was sampled from three islands flooded at different frequencies by the Wadden Sea. Archaeal ammonia oxidiser amoA genes were more abundant than their betaproteobacterial counterparts, and the distribution of archaeal and bacterial ammonia oxidiser amoA and 16S rRNA gene sequences significantly differed between the islands. The findings indicate selection of ammonia oxidiser phylotypes with greater tolerance to high salinity and slightly alkaline pH (e.g. Nitrosopumilus representatives) in frequently flooded soils. A cluster phylogenetically related to gammaproteobacterial ammonia oxidisers was detected in all samples analysed in this survey. Nevertheless, no gammaprotebacterial amoA genes could be amplified via PCR and only betaproteobacterial ammonia oxidisers were detected in enrichment cultures. A slurry-based experiment demonstrated the tolerance of both bacterial and archaeal ammonia oxidisers to a wide range of salinities (e.g. Wadden Sea water salinity) in soil naturally exposed to seawater at a high frequency. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

GLOFs in the WOS: bibliometrics, geographies and global trends of research on glacial lake outburst floods (Web of Science, 1979-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam

2018-03-01

Research on glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) - specific low-frequency, high-magnitude floods originating in glacial lakes, including jökulhlaups - is well justified in the context of glacier ice loss and glacial lake evolution in glacierized areas all over the world. Increasing GLOF research activities, which are documented by the increasing number of published research items, have been observed in the past few decades; however, comprehensive insight into the GLOF research community, its global bibliometrics, geographies and trends in research is missing. To fill this gap, a set of 892 GLOF research items published in the Web of Science database covering the period 1979-2016 was analysed. General bibliometric characteristics, citations and references were analysed, revealing a certain change in the publishing paradigm over time. Furthermore, the global geographies of research on GLOFs were studied, focusing on (i) where GLOFs are studied, (ii) who studies GLOFs, (iii) the export of research on GLOFs and (iv) international collaboration. The observed trends and links to the challenges ahead are discussed and placed in a broader context.

Characteristics of the April 2007 Flood at 10 Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Carlson, Carl S.

2009-01-01

A large 'nor'easter' storm on April 15-18, 2007, brought heavy rains to the southern New England region that, coupled with normal seasonal high flows and associated wet soil-moisture conditions, caused extensive flooding in many parts of Massachusetts and neighboring states. To characterize the magnitude of the April 2007 flood, a peak-flow frequency analysis was undertaken at 10 selected streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts to determine the magnitude of flood flows at 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year return intervals. The magnitude of flood flows at various return intervals were determined from the logarithms of the annual peaks fit to a Pearson Type III probability distribution. Analysis included augmenting the station record with longer-term records from one or more nearby stations to provide a common period of comparison that includes notable floods in 1936, 1938, and 1955. The April 2007 peak flow was among the highest recorded or estimated since 1936, often ranking between the 3d and 5th highest peak for that period. In general, the peak-flow frequency analysis indicates the April 2007 peak flow has an estimated return interval between 25 and 50 years; at stations in the northeastern and central areas of the state, the storm was less severe resulting in flows with return intervals of about 5 and 10 years, respectively. At Merrimack River at Lowell, the April 2007 peak flow approached a 100-year return interval that was computed from post-flood control records and the 1936 and 1938 peak flows adjusted for flood control. In general, the magnitude of flood flow for a given return interval computed from the streamflow-gaging station period-of-record was greater than those used to calculate flood profiles in various community flood-insurance studies. In addition, the magnitude of the updated flood flow and current (2008) stage-discharge relation at a given streamflow-gaging station often produced a flood stage that was considerably different than the flood stage indicated in the flood-insurance study flood profile at that station. Equations for estimating the flow magnitudes for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year floods were developed from the relation of the magnitude of flood flows to drainage area calculated from the six streamflow-gaging stations with the longest unaltered record. These equations produced a more conservative estimate of flood flows (higher discharges) than the existing regional equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged rivers in Massachusetts. Large differences in the magnitude of flood flows for various return intervals determined in this study compared to results from existing regional equations and flood insurance studies indicate a need for updating regional analyses and equations for estimating the expected magnitude of flood flows in Massachusetts.

Real-time updating of the flood frequency distribution through data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Cristina; Montanari, Alberto; Polo, María-José

2017-07-01

We explore the memory properties of catchments for predicting the likelihood of floods based on observations of average flows in pre-flood seasons. Our approach assumes that flood formation is driven by the superimposition of short- and long-term perturbations. The former is given by the short-term meteorological forcing leading to infiltration and/or saturation excess, while the latter is originated by higher-than-usual storage in the catchment. To exploit the above sensitivity to long-term perturbations, a meta-Gaussian model and a data assimilation approach are implemented for updating the flood frequency distribution a season in advance. Accordingly, the peak flow in the flood season is predicted in probabilistic terms by exploiting its dependence on the average flow in the antecedent seasons. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro and the Danube River at Bratislava. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is noticeably impacted by higher-than-usual flows occurring up to several months earlier. The proposed technique may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated with the estimation of flood frequency.

A 2000-year palaeoflood record from northwest England from lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schillereff, Daniel; Chiverrell, Richard; Macdonald, Neil; Hooke, Janet

2014-05-01

Greater insight into the relationship between climatic fluctuations and the frequency and magnitude of precipitation events over recent centuries is crucial in the context of future warming and projected intensification of hydrological extremes. However, the detection of trends in flood frequency and intensity is not a straightforward task as conventional flood series derived from instrumental sources rarely span sufficiently long timescales to capture the most extreme events. Usefully, the geomorphic effects of extreme hydrological events can be effectively recorded in upland lake basins as efficient sediment trapping preserves discharge-related proxy indicators (e.g., particle size). Provided distinct sedimentary signatures of historic floods are discernable and the sediment sequence can be well-constrained in time, these lacustrine archives offer a valuable data resource. We demonstrate that a series of sediment cores (3 - 5 m length) from Brotherswater, northwest England, contain numerous coarse-grained laminations, discerned by applying high-resolution (0.5 cm) laser granulometry, which are interpreted as reflecting a palaeoflood record extending to ~2000 yr BP. The presence of thick facies which exhibit inverse grading underlying normal grading, most likely reflecting the waxing and waning of flood-induced hyperpycnal flows, supports our palaeoflood interpretation. Data from an on-going sediment trapping protocol at Brotherswater that shows a relationship between river discharge (recorded via short-term lake level change representing flood events) and the calibre of particles captured in the traps lends further support to our interpretation. Well-constrained chronologies were constructed for the cores through integrating radionuclide (210Pb, 137Cs, 241Am, 14C) dating within a Bayesian age-depth modelling protocol. Geochemical markers of known-age that reflect phases of local point-source lead (Pb) mining were used to resolve time periods where radiocarbon dates returned multiple possible age solutions. We subsequently build a regression model using the time-window where recorded river discharge and the sedimentary record overlap (1961-2013) in order to reconstruct discharge estimates for the palaeoflood laminations. These quantitative palaeoflood data can thus be inserted into statistical flood frequency analyses and compared with outputs using instrumental data and regional flood information.

Wide-area estimates of evapotranspiration by red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) and associated vegetation in the Murray-Darling River Basin, Australia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nagler, Pamela L.; Doody, Tanya M.; Glenn, Edward P.; Jarchow, Christopher J.; Barreto-Munoz, Armando; Didan, Kamel

2016-01-01

Floodplain red gum forests (Eucalyptus camaldulensis plus associated grasses, reeds and sedges) are sites of high biodiversity in otherwise arid regions of southeastern Australia. They depend on periodic floods from rivers, but dams and diversions have reduced flood frequencies and volumes, leading to deterioration of trees and associated biota. There is a need to determine their water requirements so environmental flows can be administered to maintain or restore the forests. Their water requirements include the frequency and extent of overbank flooding, which recharges the floodplain soils with water, as well as the actual amount of water consumed in evapotranspiration (ET). We estimated the flooding requirements and ET for a 38 134 ha area of red gum forest fed by the Murrumbidgee River in Yanga National Park, New South Wales. ET was estimated by three methods: sap flux sensors placed in individual trees; a remote sensing method based on the Enhanced Vegetation Index from MODIS satellite imagery and a water balance method based on differences between river flows into and out of the forest. The methods gave comparable estimates yet covered different spatial and temporal scales. We estimated flood frequency and volume requirements by comparing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values from Landsat images with flood history from 1995 to 2014, which included both wet periods and dry periods. ET during wet years is about 50% of potential ET but is much less in dry years because of the trees' ability to control stomatal conductance. Based on our analyses plus other studies, red gum trees at this location require environmental flows of 2000 GL yr−1 every other year, with peak flows of 20 000 ML d−1, to produce flooding sufficient to keep them in good condition. However, only about 120–200 GL yr−1 of river water is consumed in ET, with the remainder flowing out of the forest where it enters the Murray River system.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States, Part 1-B, North Atlantic slope basins, New York to York River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tice, Richard H.

1968-01-01

Flood magnitude-frequency relation applicable to streams in the North Atlantic slope basins, New York to York River, Va., are presented in this report.  The relations are based on flood data collected at 487 gaging stations having 5 or more years of record not materially affected by regulation. For sites on most streams, the magnitude of a flood of any given frequency between 1.1 and 50 years can be determined from two curves - one expressing the relation between the mean annual flood and size of draining basin and the other expressing the ratio to the mean annual flood of floods of other recurrence intervals. For New Jersey streams, an adjustment to the mean annual flood is based on the percentage of surface area covered by lakes and swamps in the basin.

Paleoflood Data, Extreme Floods and Frequency: Data and Models for Dam Safety Risk Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, J. F.; Godaire, J.; Klinger, R.

2007-12-01

Extreme floods and probability estimates are crucial components in dam safety risk analysis and scenarios for water-resources decision making. The field-based collection of paleoflood data provides needed information on the magnitude and probability of extreme floods at locations of interest in a watershed or region. The stratigraphic record present along streams in the form of terrace and floodplain deposits represent direct indicators of the magnitude of large floods on a river, and may provide 10 to 100 times longer records than conventional stream gaging records of large floods. Paleoflood data is combined with gage and historical streamflow estimates to gain insights to flood frequency scaling, model extrapolations and uncertainty, and provide input scenarios to risk analysis event trees. We illustrate current data collection and flood frequency modeling approaches via case studies in the western United States, including the American River in California and the Arkansas River in Colorado. These studies demonstrate the integration of applied field geology, hydraulics, and surface-water hydrology. Results from these studies illustrate the gains in information content on extreme floods, provide data- based means to separate flood generation processes, guide flood frequency model extrapolations, and reduce uncertainties. These data and scenarios strongly influence water resources management decisions.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States, Part 3-A, Ohio River Basin except Cumberland and Tennessee River Basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Speer, Paul R.; Gamble, Charles R.

1965-01-01

This report presents a means of determining the probable magnitude and frequency of floods of any recurrence interval from 1.1 to 50 years at most points on streams in the Ohio River basin except Cumberland and Tennessee River basins. Curves are defined that show the relation between the drainage area and the mean annual flood in eight hydrologic areas, and composite frequency curves define the relation of a flood of any recurrence interval from 1.1 to 50 years to the mean annual flood. These two relations are based upon gaging-station records having 10 or more years of record not materially affected by storage or diversion, and the results obtainable from them will represent the magnitude and frequency of natural floods within the range and recurrence intervals defined by the base data. The report also contains a compilation of flood records at all sites in the area at which records have been collected for 5 or more consecutive years. As far as was possible at each location for which discharge has been determined, the tabulations include all floods above a selected base. Where only gage heights have been obtained or where the data did not warrant computation of peach discharges above a selected base, only annual peaks are shown. The maximum known flood discharges for the streamflow stations and miscellaneous points except Ohio River main stem stations, together with areal floods of 10- and 50-year recurrence intervals, are plotted against the size of drainage area for each flood region and hydrologic area to provide a convenient means of judging the frequency of the maximum known floods that have been recorded for these points.

Techniques for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods on streams in Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glatfelter, D.R.

1984-01-01

A rainfall-runoff model was tlsed to synthesize long-term peak data at 11 gaged locations on small streams. Flood-frequency curves developed from the long-term synthetic data were combined with curves based on short-term observed data to provide weighted estimates of flood magnitude and frequency at the rainfall-runoff stations.

Regional flood-frequency relations for streams with many years of no flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hjalmarson, Hjalmar W.; Thomas, Blakemore E.; ,

1990-01-01

In the southwestern United States, flood-frequency relations for streams that drain small arid basins are difficult to estimate, largely because of the extreme temporal and spatial variability of floods and the many years of no flow. A method is proposed that is based on the station-year method. The new method produces regional flood-frequency relations using all available annual peak-discharge data. The prediction errors for the relations are directly assessed using randomly selected subsamples of the annual peak discharges.

Estimation of flood-frequency characteristics of small urban streams in North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, J.C.; Pope, B.F.

1996-01-01

A statewide study was conducted to develop methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods of small urban streams in North Carolina. This type of information is critical in the design of bridges, culverts and water-control structures, establishment of flood-insurance rates and flood-plain regulation, and for other uses by urban planners and engineers. Concurrent records of rainfall and runoff data collected in small urban basins were used to calibrate rainfall-runoff models. Historic rain- fall records were used with the calibrated models to synthesize a long- term record of annual peak discharges. The synthesized record of annual peak discharges were used in a statistical analysis to determine flood- frequency distributions. These frequency distributions were used with distributions from previous investigations to develop a database for 32 small urban basins in the Blue Ridge-Piedmont, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain hydrologic areas. The study basins ranged in size from 0.04 to 41.0 square miles. Data describing the size and shape of the basin, level of urban development, and climate and rural flood charac- teristics also were included in the database. Estimation equations were developed by relating flood-frequency char- acteristics to basin characteristics in a generalized least-squares regression analysis. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, impervious area, and rural flood discharge. The model error and prediction errors for the estimating equations were less than those for the national flood-frequency equations previously reported. Resulting equations, which have prediction errors generally less than 40 percent, can be used to estimate flood-peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for small urban basins across the State assuming negligible, sustainable, in- channel detention or basin storage.

Estimation of Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Streams on the Island of Oahu, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Michael F.

1994-01-01

This report describes techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for the island of Oahu. The log-Pearson Type III distribution and methodology recommended by the Interagency Committee on Water Data was used to determine the magnitude and frequency of floods at 79 gaging stations that had 11 to 72 years of record. Multiple regression analysis was used to construct regression equations to transfer the magnitude and frequency information from gaged sites to ungaged sites. Oahu was divided into three hydrologic regions to define relations between peak discharge and drainage-basin and climatic characteristics. Regression equations are provided to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year peak discharges at ungaged sites. Significant basin and climatic characteristics included in the regression equations are drainage area, median annual rainfall, and the 2-year, 24-hour rainfall intensity. Drainage areas for sites used in this study ranged from 0.03 to 45.7 square miles. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations ranged from 34 to 62 percent. Peak-discharge data collected through water year 1988, geographic information system (GIS) technology, and generalized least-squares regression were used in the analyses. The use of GIS seems to be a more flexible and consistent means of defining and calculating basin and climatic characteristics than using manual methods. Standard errors of estimate for the regression equations in this report are an average of 8 percent less than those published in previous studies.

Historical palaeohydrology and landscape resilience of a Mediterranean rambla (Castellón, NE Spain): Floods and people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, M. J.; Medialdea, A.; Calle, M.; Rico, M. T.; Sánchez-Moya, Y.; Sopeña, A.; Benito, G.

2017-09-01

This paper provides a new methodological approach to analyse secular patterns of flooding (magnitude and frequency) from sedimentary evidence (palaeofloods), taking into account changes in channel geometry, and their links to historical environmental changes and the inherent social and demographic evolution within the catchment. A case study analysis was focused in Rambla de la Viuda (drainage area of 1500 km2) whose stream flow is related to extreme rainfalls. A 500 years sedimentary archive was reconstructed from eight stratigraphic profiles comprising continuous sequences of slackwater flood deposits interbedded with episodic colluvial and edaphic horizons. Discharge estimates associated to sedimentary flood evidences were obtained from one-dimensional hydraulic modelling. The stratigraphic units were sampled to characterise their geochemical and paleobotanical (phytoliths) contents. Palaeoflood chronology was obtained from radiocarbon and luminescence (OSL) dating, supported by documentary data (written historical documents). A high frequency and high magnitude palaeoflood period took place during the 15th-middle 16th century, which seem to correlate in time with general wetter conditions. Three short-term environment stability conditions (land use and climatic) also made possible the development of three paleosols. The lowest flood magnitude and discharges in the sedimentary record was found between the mid-17th to mid-18th centuries, under prevailing drier environmental conditions. Episodic high magnitude flooding took place at late 18th century, correlating in time with palaeovegetation and geochemical evidences of important changes on land use (deforestation and grazing). Poorer developed soils were found at upper stratigraphic sequences (19th century) characterised by thick units of colluvium deposits, usually culminating sequences of short-lived continuous slackwater flood units. Despite of the potential human influence (land-use) on soil hydrology, the long-term behaviour of high magnitude floods (>1000 m3 s-1) has been stationary over the last 500 years.

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2017-01-01

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Flood-frequency estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used a multistate approach to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina (Feaster and others, 2014). The multistate approach has the advantage over a single state approach of increasing the number of streamflow-gaging station (streamgages) available for analysis, expanding the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across state boundaries, and building on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural streamgages in the Southeastern United States. This investigation was funded as part of a cooperative program of water-resources investigations between the USGS, the South Carolina Department of Transportation, and the North Carolina Department of Transportation. In addition, much of the data and information for the Georgia streamgages was funded through a similar cooperative program with the Georgia Department of Transportation.

Flooding Frequency Alters Vegetation in Isolated Wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haag, Kim H.; Lee, Terrie M.

2006-01-01

Many isolated wetlands in central Florida occur as small, shallow depressions scattered throughout the karst topography of the region. In these wetlands, the water table approaches land surface seasonally, and water levels and flooding frequency are largely determined by differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Because much of the region is flat with little topographic relief, small changes in wetland water levels can cause large changes in wetland surface area. Persistent changes in wetland flooding frequencies, as a result of changes in rainfall or human activity, can cause a substantial change in the vegetation of thousands of acres of land. Understanding the effect that flooding frequency has on wetland vegetation is important to assessing the overall ecological status of wetlands. Wetland bathymetric mapping, when combined with water-level data and vegetation assessments, can enable scientists to determine the frequency of flooding at different elevations in a wetland and describe the effects of flooding frequency on wetland vegetation at those elevations. Five cypress swamps and five marshes were studied by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) during 2000-2004, as part of an interdisciplinary study of isolated wetlands in central Florida (Haag and others, 2005). Partial results from two of these marshes are described in this report.

New river flow maxima in Northern England, December 2015: Implications for flood hazard and risk assessment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, James

2016-04-01

December 2015 was recently confirmed as the UK's wettest month on record by the Met Office. The most extreme precipitation was associated with three extratropical storm systems, named Desmond, Eva and Frank by the pilot Met Éireann/Met Office "Name our storms" project. In response, river levels reached new maxima at many locations across Northern England. Property damage was widespread, with at least 16,000 homes in England flooded. As with recent predecessors, these events reinvigorated public debate about the extent to which natural weather variability, anthropogenic climate change, increased urbanisation and/or other changes in catchment and river management might be responsible for apparent increases in flood frequency and severity. Change detection and attribution science is required to inform the debate, but is complicated by the short (typically ~ 35 years) river flow records available. Running a large number of coupled climate and hydrological model simulations is a powerful way of addressing the 'attribution question' with respect to the hypothesised climate forcing, for example, albeit one that remains largely in the research domain at present. In the meantime, flood-frequency analysis of available records still forms the bedrock of practice in the water industry; the results are used routinely in the design of new defence structures and in the development of flood hazard maps, amongst other things. In such analyses, it is usual for the records to be assumed stationary. In this context, the specific aims of this research are twofold: • To investigate whether, under the assumption of stationarity, the outputs of standard flood-frequency modelling methods (both 'single-site' and 'spatially pooled' methods) differ significantly depending on whether the new peaks are included or excluded, and; • To assess the sustainability of previous conclusions regarding trends in English river flows by reapplying simple statistical tests, such as the Mann-Kendal test, to data series with the new peaks included. Overall, the research seeks to explore the robustness of commonly-employed statistical flood estimation methods to instrumentally unprecedented extremes. Should it be found that the new records do indeed represent paradigm-shifting 'leverage points', then the suggestion of the Deputy Chief Executive of the Environment Agency, David Rooke - that a "complete rethink" of flood mitigation matters is required in our world of "unknown extremes" - must be given sufficient attention.

Peak Discharge, Flood Frequency, and Peak Stage of Floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 Near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-12-14

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at ...

Improving techniques to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on urban streams in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia, 2011 (ver. 1.1, March 2014) : U.S. Geological Survey scientific investigations report 2014-5030.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency : of floods are essential for the design of transportation and : water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and : flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly : important in dens...

Extending the flood record on the Middle Gila River with Holocene stratigraphy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huckleberry, G.

1993-04-01

Historical changes in flood frequency and magnitude are correlated to changes in channel geometry for the Middle Gila River (MGR) in south-central Arizona. The author has attempted to reconstruct the frequency of large floods on the MGR for the last 1,000 years by looking at the stratigraphic record with the purpose of modeling channel changes during a period of significant local cultural change, i.e., the Hohokam-Pima cultural transition. After distinguishing and mapping geological surfaces in the eastern part of the Gila River Indian Community. The author placed a series of backhoe trenches on late Holocene MGR terraces. He interprets lithologicalmore » discontinuities within overbank deposits as boundaries separating temporally discrete floods. Detrital charcoal from within the stratigraphy was submitted to the National Science Foundation-University of Arizona AMS facility for radiocarbon analysis. The stratigraphic record indicates that a minimum of four large floods have occurred on the MGR since A.D. 1300. Three of these floods may correspond to large historical floods in 1833, 1868, and 1905. If so, then it appears that MGR flood frequency increased after A.D. 1800. There is no evidence for increased flood frequency and channel transformations during the cultural decline of the Hohokam in the 15th century.« less

Spillway sizing of large dams in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reszler, Ch.; Gutknecht, D.; Blöschl, G.

2003-04-01

This paper discusses the basic philosophy of defining and calculating design floods for large dams in Austria, both for the construction of new dams and for a re-assessment of the safety of existing dams. Currently the consensus is to choose flood peak values corresponding to a probability of exceedance of 2*10-4 for a given year. A two step procedure is proposed to estimate the design flood discharges - a rapid assessment and a detailed assessment. In the rapid assessment the design discharge is chosen as a constant multiple of flood values read from a map of regionalised floods. The safety factor or multiplier takes care of the uncertainties of the local estimation and the regionalisation procedure. If the current design level of a spillway exceeds the value so estimated, no further calculations are needed. Otherwise (and for new dams) a detailed assessment is required. The idea of the detailed assessment is to draw upon all existing sources of information to constrain the uncertainties. The three main sources are local flood frequency analysis, where flood data are available; regional flood estimation from hydrologically similar catchments; and rainfall-runoff modelling using design storms as inputs. The three values obtained by these methods are then assessed and weighted in terms of their reliability to facilitate selection of the design flood. The uncertainty assessment of the various methods is based on confidence intervals, estimates of regional heterogeneity, data availability and sensitivity analyses of the rainfall-runoff model. As the definition of the design floods discussed above is based on probability concepts it is also important to examine the excess risk, i.e. the possibility of the occurrence of a flood exceeding the design levels. The excess risk is evaluated based on a so called Safety Check Flood (SCF), similar to the existing practice in other countries in Europe. The SCF is a vehicle to analyse the damage potential of an event of this magnitude. This is to provide guidance for protective measures to dealing with very extreme floods. The SCF is used to check the vulnerability of the system with regard to structural stability, morphological effects, etc., and to develop alarm plans and disaster mitigation procedures. The basis for estimating the SCF are the uncertainty assessments of the design flood values estimated by the three methods including unlikely combinations of the controlling factors and attending uncertainties. Finally we discuss the impact on the downstream valley of floods exceeding the design values and of smaller floods and illustrate the basic concepts by examples from the recent flood in August 2002.

Integrating Local Experiential and Hydrometeorological Data to Understand Knowledge Uncertainties and to Build Resilience to Flooding in Two Puerto Rican Communities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsey, M.; Nytch, C. J.; Branoff, B.

2016-12-01

Socio-hydrological studies that explore feedbacks between social and biophysical processes related to flood risk can help managers identify strategies that increase a community's freshwater security. However, knowledge uncertainty due to coarse spatio-temporal coverage of hydrological monitoring data, missing riverine discharge and precipitation records, assumptions of flood risk models, and effects of urbanization, can limit the ability of these studies to isolate hydrological responses to social drivers of flooding and a changing climate. Local experiential knowledge can provide much needed information about 1) actual flood spatio-temporal patterns, 2) human impacts and perceptions of flood events, and 3) mechanisms to validate flood risk studies and understand key social elements of the system. We addressed these knowledge gaps by comparing the location and timing of flood events described in resident interviews and resident drawn maps (total = 97) from two San Juan communities with NOAA and USGS precipitation and riverine discharge data archives, and FEMA flood maps. Analyses of five focal flood events revealed 1) riverine monitoring data failed to record a major flood event caused by localized blockage of the river, 2) residents did not mention multiple extreme riverine discharge events, 3) resident and FEMA flood maps matched closely but resident maps provided finer spatial information about frequency of flooding, and 4) only a small percentage of residents remembered the dates of flood events. Local knowledge provided valuable social data about flood impacts on human economic and physical/psychological wellbeing, perceptions about factors causing flooding, and what residents use as sources of flood information. A simple mechanism or tool for residents to record their flood experiences in real-time will address the uncertainties in local knowledge and improve social memory. The integration of local experiential knowledge with simulated and empirical hydro-meteorological data can be a powerful approach to increase the quality of socio-hydrological studies about flooding and freshwater security.

Varying effects of geomorphic change on floodplain inundation and forest communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keim, R.; Johnson, E. L.; Edwards, B. L.; King, S. L.; Hupp, C. R.

2015-12-01

Overbank flooding in floodplains is an important control on vegetation, but effects of changing flooding are difficult to predict because sensitivities of plant communities to multidimensional flooding (frequency, depth, duration, and timing) are not well understood. We used HEC-RAS to model the changing flooding regime in the lower White River floodplain, Arkansas, in response to rapid incision of the Mississippi River in the 1930s, and quantified flood frequency, depth, and duration by forest community type. Incision has decreased flooding especially in terms of frequency, which is one of the most important variables for ecological processes. Modeled depth-duration curves varied more among floodplain reaches than among forest communities within the same reach, but forest communities are now arranged in accordance with new flood regimes in place after river incision. Forest responses to subtle geomorphic change are slower than other vegetation communities, so detection of the full ramifications of ecohydrologic change may require decades.

Magnitude and Frequency of Rural Floods in the Southeastern United States, through 2006: Volume 2, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, J. Curtis; Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.

2009-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. A multistate approach was used to update methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, tidal fluctuations, or urban development. In North Carolina, annual peak-flow data available through September 2006 were available for 584 sites; 402 of these sites had a total of 10 or more years of systematic record that is required for at-site, flood-frequency analysis. Following data reviews and the computation of 20 physical and climatic basin characteristics for each station as well as at-site flood-frequency statistics, annual peak-flow data were identified for 363 sites in North Carolina suitable for use in this analysis. Among these 363 sites, 19 sites had records that could be divided into unregulated and regulated/ channelized annual peak discharges, which means peak-flow records were identified for a total of 382 cases in North Carolina. Considering the 382 cases, at-site flood-frequency statistics are provided for 333 unregulated cases (also used for the regression database) and 49 regulated/channelized cases. The flood-frequency statistics for the 333 unregulated sites were combined with data for sites from South Carolina, Georgia, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia to create a database of 943 sites considered for use in the regional regression analysis. Flood-frequency statistics were computed by fitting logarithms (base 10) of the annual peak flows to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation process, a new generalized skew coefficient was developed by using a Bayesian generalized least-squares regression model. Exploratory regression analyses using ordinary least-squares regression completed on the initial database of 943 sites resulted in defining five hydrologic regions for North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Stations with drainage areas less than 1 square mile were removed from the database, and a procedure to examine for basin redundancy (based on drainage area and periods of record) also resulted in the removal of some stations from the regression database. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 828 gaged stations were combined to form the final database that was used in the regional regression analysis. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations that can be used for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent chance exceedance flows for rural ungaged, basins in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. The final predictive equations are all functions of drainage area and the percentage of drainage basin within each of the five hydrologic regions. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 34.0 to 47.7 percent. Discharge estimates determined from the systematic records for the current study are, on average, larger in magnitude than those from a previous study for the highest percent chance exceedances (50 and 20 percent) and tend to be smaller than those from the previous study for the lower percent chance exceedances when all sites are considered as a group. For example, mean differences for sites in the Piedmont hydrologic region range from positive 0.5 percent for the 50-percent chance exceedance flow to negative 4.6 percent for the 0.2-percent chance exceedance flow when stations are grouped by hydrologic region. Similarly for the same hydrologic region, median differences range from positive 0.9 percent for the 50-percent chance exceedance flow to negative 7.1 percent for the 0.2-percent chance exceedance flow. However, mean and median percentage differences between the estimates from the previous and curre

Linking events, science and media for flood and drought management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, M.; Wei, Y.; Zheng, H.; Zhao, Y.

2017-12-01

Throughout history, floods and droughts have been closely related to the development of human riparian civilization. The socio-economic damage caused by floods/droughts appears to be on the rise and the frequency of floods/droughts increases due to global climate change. In this paper, we take a fresh perspective to examine the (dis)connection between events (floods and droughts), research papers and media reports in globally 42 river basins between 1990 and 2012 for better solutions in floods and droughts management. We collected hydrological data from NOAA/ESPL Physical Sciences Division (PSD) and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), all relevant scientific papers from Web of Science (WOS) and media records from Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the study period, presented the temporal variability at annual level of these three groups of data, and analysed the (connection) among these three groups of data in typical river basins. We found that 1) the number of flood related reports on both media and research is much more than those on droughts; 2) the concerns of media reports just focused on partial topics (death, severity and damage) and partial catchments (Mediterranean Sea and Nile River); 3) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within some river basins such as Nile River Basin, Parana River Basin, Savannah River Basin and Murray-Darling River Basin; 4) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within only a few of disciplines such as Geology, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Agriculture, Engineering and Forestry. It is recommended that multiple disciplinary contribution and collaboration should be promoted to achieve comprehensive flood/drought management, and science and media should interactively play their valuable roles and in flood/drought issues. Keywords: Floods, droughts, events, science, media, flood and drought management

Floods on small streams in North Carolina, probable magnitude and frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinson, Herbert G.

1965-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of floods are defined regionally for small streams (drainage area, 1 to 150 sq mi) in North Carolina. Composite frequency curves for each of two regions relate the magnitude of the annual flood, in ratio to the mean annual flood, to recurrence intervals of 1.1 to 50 years. In North Carolina, the mean annual flood (Q2.33) is related to drainage area (A) by the following equation: Q2. 33 = GA0.66, where G, the geographic factor, is the product of a statewide coefficient (US) times a correction which reflects differences in basin characteristics. Isograms of the G factor covering the State are presented.

Identification of Dominant Flood Drivers across Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, J.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.; Simonovic, S.; Gusain, A.

2016-12-01

In recent past, flooding has taken a devastating form causing societal, economic, and environmental losses over the Globe. Reliable information on the cause of occurrence, time, and magnitude of flood events might be useful for effective planning, design and operation of hydraulic structures to minimize losses. In the present study, we used circular statistics to understand the pattern and seasonality in flooding across Canada. A set of analyses is performed on unregulated daily stream flow data from 318 stream gage stations (procure from HYDAT database) with a record of at least 40 years between 1951-2010. Further, an attempt is also made to identify possible primary drivers of flooding across Canada. To accomplish this, daily precipitation record from 561 stations and 10 resolution snowmelt data from ECMWF ERA 20C during 1951-2010 have been used. Majority of stations reported statistically significant negative trend in flood magnitude in south western part, whereas, an increasing trend in frequency of flooding observed in south eastern part of Canada. The results show a strong evidence of regional patterns of seasonality and inter-annual variability in flooding. It is observed, about 42% of flood events occur during spring (March-May) over south eastern part of Canada and are not associated with extreme precipitation, where snowmelt is found to be primary factor for occurrence of flood events. Further, about 44% of flood events occur during summer (June-August) in southwestern region and having strong association with extreme precipitation. Additionally, we observe the negative trend in precipitation driven flood events (summer flooding) in south western part of Canada. The present study on identification of major flood drivers across Canada shows a need to examine the influence of various climate indices quantifying variation of surface temperature anomalies, which will improve flood prediction and consequently flood risk management. Keywords: Canada, Flood drivers, Flood management, Precipitation, Snowmelt

Hydraulic and hydrologic aspects of flood-plain planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiitala, S.W.; Jetter, K.R.; Sommerville, Alan J.

1961-01-01

The valid incentives compelling occupation of the flood plain, up to and eve n into the stream channel, undoubtedly have contributed greatly to the development of the country. But the result has been a heritage of flood disaster, suffering, and enormous costs. Flood destruction awakened a consciousness toward reduction and elimination of flood hazards, originally manifested in the protection of existing developments. More recently, increased knowledge of the problem has shown the impracticability of permitting development that requires costly flood protect/on. The idea of flood zoning, or flood-plain planning, has received greater impetus as a result of this realization. This study shows how hydraulic and hydrologic data concerning the flood regimen of a stream can be used in appraising its flood potential and the risk inherent in occupation of its flood plain. The approach involves the study of flood magnitudes as recorded or computed; flood frequencies based1 on experience shown by many years of gaging-station record; use of existing or computed stagedischarge relations and flood profiles; and, where required, the preparation of flood-zone maps to show the areas inundated by floods of several magnitudes and frequencies. The planner can delineate areas subject to inundation by floods o* specific recurrence intervals for three conditions: (a) for the immediate vicinity of a gaging station; (b) for a gaged stream at a considerable distance from a gaging station; and (c) for an ungaged stream. The average depth for a flood of specific frequency can be estimated on the basis of simple measurements of area of drainage basin, width of channel, and slope of streambed. This simplified approach should be useful in the initial stages of flood-plain planning. Brief discussions are included on various types of flood hazards, the effects of urbanization on flood runoff, and zoning considerations.

On hydrologic similarity: A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphologic unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sivapalan, Murugesu; Wood, Eric F.; Beven, Keith J.

1993-01-01

One of the shortcomings of the original theory of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) is that it assumes that runoff is generated uniformly from the entire catchment area. It is now recognized that in many catchments much of the runoff during storm events is produced on partial areas which usually form on narrow bands along the stream network. A storm response model that includes runoff generation on partial areas by both Hortonian and Dunne mechanisms was recently developed by the authors. In this paper a methodology for integrating this partial area runoff generation model with the GUH-based runoff routing model is presented; this leads to a generalized GUH. The generalized GUH and the storm response model are then used to estimate physically based flood frequency distributions. In most previous work the initial moisture state of the catchment had been assumed to be constant for all the storms. In this paper we relax this assumption and allow the initial moisture conditions to vary between storms. The resulting flood frequency distributions are cast in a scaled dimensionless framework where issues such as catchment scale and similarity can be conveniently addressed. A number of experiments are performed to study the sensitivity of the flood frequency response to some of the 'similarity' parameters identified in this formulation. The results indicate that one of the most important components of the derived flood frequency model relates to the specification of processes within the runoff generation model; specifically the inclusion of both saturation excess and Horton infiltration excess runoff production mechanisms. The dominance of these mechanisms over different return periods of the flood frequency distribution can significantly affect the distributional shape and confidence limits about the distribution. Comparisons with observed flood distributions seem to indicate that such mixed runoff production mechanisms influence flood distribution shape. The sensitivity analysis also indicated that the incorporation of basin and rainfall storm scale also greatly influences the distributional shape of the flood frequency curve.

Agricultural chemicals in alluvial aquifers in Missouri after the 1993 flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heimann, D.C.; Richards, J.M.; Wilkison, D.H.

1997-01-01

Intense rains produced flooding during the spring and summer of 1993 over much of the midwestern USA including many agricultural areas of Missouri. Because of potential contamination from floodwater, an investigation was conducted to determine the changes in concentrations of agricultural chemicals in water samples from alluvial wells in Missouri after the flood. Water samples from 80 alluvial wells with historical data were collected in March, July, and November 1994, and analyzed for dissolved herbicides, herbicide metabolites, and nitrate (NO3). There were no statistically significant differences in the distribution of alachlor ((2,chloro-2'-6'-diethyl-N-[methoxymethyl]acetanilide), atrazine (2-chloro- 4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-1, 3, 5 triazine), and nitrate concentrations between pre- and postflood samples (?? = 0.05). The detection frequency of alachlor and atrazine in postflood samples was generally lower than the frequency in preflood samples. Analyses of agricultural chemicals in water samples from an intensely sampled well field indicate significant differences between the distribution of dissolved P concentrations in pre- and postflood samples (?? = 0.05). However, no significant differences were detected between the pre- and postflood distributions of NO3 or ammonia concentrations. Because of the numerous sources of temporal variability and the relatively short record of water-quality data for the study wells, a cause-and-effect relation between changes in agricultural chemical concentrations and a single factor of the 1993 flood is difficult to determine. Based on the results of this study, the 1993 flood did not cause widespread or long-term significant changes in concentrations of agricultural chemicals in water from alluvial aquifers in Missouri.

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency at gaged and ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada, based on data through water year 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Janet H.; Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Ourso, Robert T.

2016-03-16

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are needed across Alaska for engineering design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, flood-plain management, and other water-resource purposes. This report updates methods for estimating flood magnitude and frequency in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2012 were compiled from 387 streamgages on unregulated streams with at least 10 years of record. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for each streamgage using the Expected Moments Algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak flows. A multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to identify potentially influential low floods in the time series of peak flows for censoring in the flood frequency analysis.For two new regional skew areas, flood-frequency estimates using station skew were computed for stations with at least 25 years of record for use in a Bayesian least-squares regression analysis to determine a regional skew value. The consideration of basin characteristics as explanatory variables for regional skew resulted in improvements in precision too small to warrant the additional model complexity, and a constant model was adopted. Regional Skew Area 1 in eastern-central Alaska had a regional skew of 0.54 and an average variance of prediction of 0.45, corresponding to an effective record length of 22 years. Regional Skew Area 2, encompassing coastal areas bordering the Gulf of Alaska, had a regional skew of 0.18 and an average variance of prediction of 0.12, corresponding to an effective record length of 59 years. Station flood-frequency estimates for study sites in regional skew areas were then recomputed using a weighted skew incorporating the station skew and regional skew. In a new regional skew exclusion area outside the regional skew areas, the density of long-record streamgages was too sparse for regional analysis and station skew was used for all estimates. Final station flood frequency estimates for all study streamgages are presented for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities.Regional multiple-regression analysis was used to produce equations for estimating flood frequency statistics from explanatory basin characteristics. Basin characteristics, including physical and climatic variables, were updated for all study streamgages using a geographical information system and geospatial source data. Screening for similar-sized nested basins eliminated hydrologically redundant sites, and screening for eligibility for analysis of explanatory variables eliminated regulated peaks, outburst peaks, and sites with indeterminate basin characteristics. An ordinary least‑squares regression used flood-frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 341 streamgages (284 in Alaska and 57 in Canada) to determine the most suitable combination of basin characteristics for a flood-frequency regression model and to explore regional grouping of streamgages for explaining variability in flood-frequency statistics across the study area. The most suitable model for explaining flood frequency used drainage area and mean annual precipitation as explanatory variables for the entire study area as a region. Final regression equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability discharge in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada were developed using a generalized least-squares regression. The average standard error of prediction for the regression equations for the various annual exceedance probabilities ranged from 69 to 82 percent, and the pseudo-coefficient of determination (pseudo-R2) ranged from 85 to 91 percent.The regional regression equations from this study were incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program for a limited area of the State—the Cook Inlet Basin. StreamStats is a national web-based geographic information system application that facilitates retrieval of streamflow statistics and associated information. StreamStats retrieves published data for gaged sites and, for user-selected ungaged sites, delineates drainage areas from topographic and hydrographic data, computes basin characteristics, and computes flood frequency estimates using the regional regression equations.

[Effect of flooding time length on mycorrhizal colonization of three AM fungi in two wetland plants].

PubMed

Ma, Lei-Meng; Wang, Peng-Teng; Wang, Shu-Guang

2014-01-01

In order to provide information for elucidating effect of flooding on the formation and function of AM in wetland plants, three AM fungi (Glomus intraradices, Glomus versiforme, Glomus etunicatum) were used to investigate the effects of flooding time length on their colonization in cattail (Typha orientalis) and rice (Oryza sativa L. ). The results showed that the mycorrhizal colonization rate (MCR) presented downtrend with increasing flooding time length. In cattail, MCR of the fungus F3 was higher than those of fungi F1 and F2, but no significant difference in MCR was found between fungi F1 and F2. In rice, the MCRs of fungi F2 and F3 were higher than that of E1. In both plants, the proportional frequency of hyphae was the highest while the proportional frequency of arbuscules and vesicles was very low in all treatments, indicating that hyphal colonization was the main route for AM formation. The proportional frequency of hyphae in cattail increased with the flooding time length, but no significant trend was observed in rice plant. The proportional frequency of arhuscules decreased with the increase of flooding time, and was the highest in the treatment without flooding (treatment IV). The number of spores produced by AM fungi increased with increasing flooding time, and reached the highest in the treatment of long time flooding (treatment I). In the same treatment, the fungus F3 produced more spores than fungi F1 and F2. Changes in wet weight of the two plants showed that AM could increase cattail growth under flooding, hut little effect on rice growth was found. It is concluded that flooding time length significantly affected the mycorrhizal colonization rate and the proportional frequency of colonization. AM could enhance the growth of wetland plant, but this depends on the mycorrhizal dependence of host plant on AM fungi. Therefore, flooding time length should be considered in the inoculation of wetland plants with AM fungi.

Coping with droughts and floods: A Case study of Kanyemba, Mbire District, Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bola, G.; Mabiza, C.; Goldin, J.; Kujinga, K.; Nhapi, I.; Makurira, H.; Mashauri, D.

Most of Southern Africa is affected by extreme weather events, droughts and floods being the most common. The frequency of floods and droughts in Southern Africa in general, of which the Zambezi River Basin is part of, has been linked to climate change. Droughts and floods impact on the natural environment, and directly and indirectly impact on livelihoods. In the Middle Zambezi River Basin, which is located between Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, extreme weather events are exacerbated by human activities, in particular the operation of both the Kariba and the Cahora Bassa reservoirs. To understand better, whether, and in what ways extreme weather events impact on livelihoods, this study used both quantitative and qualitative research methods to analyse rainfall variability and coping strategies used by households in the river basin. Data collection was done using semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and structured questionnaires which were administered to 144 households. An analysis of rainfall variability and Cahora Bassa water level over 23 years was carried out. The study found that perceptions of households were that average rainfall has decreased over the years, and dry-spells have become more frequent. Furthermore, households perceived flood events to have increased over the last two decades. However, the analysis of rainfall variability revealed that the average rainfall received between 1988 and 2011 had not changed but the frequency of dry-spells and floods had increased. The occurrence of floods in the study area was found to be linked to heavy local rain and backflow from Cahora Bassa dam. The study found that households adopted a number of strategies to cope with droughts and floods, such as vegetable farming and crop production in the floodplain, taking on local jobs that brought in wages, planting late and livestock disposals. Some households also resorted to out-migration on a daily basis to Zambia or Mozambique. The study concluded that coping mechanisms were found to be inflexible and poorly suited to adapt to floods and droughts. The study recommends the implementation of adaptation measures such as the cultivation of drought-resistant crop varieties, irrigation and off-farm employment opportunities.

Methods for estimating flood frequency in Montana based on data through water year 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Johnson, Dave R.

2004-01-01

Annual peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (T-year floods) were determined for 660 gaged sites in Montana and in adjacent areas of Idaho, Wyoming, and Canada, based on data through water year 1998. The updated flood-frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses, either ordinary or generalized least squares, to develop equations relating T-year floods to various basin and climatic characteristics, equations relating T-year floods to active-channel width, and equations relating T-year floods to bankfull width. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency at ungaged sites. Montana was divided into eight regions, within which flood characteristics were considered to be reasonably homogeneous, and the three sets of regression equations were developed for each region. A measure of the overall reliability of the regression equations is the average standard error of prediction. The average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics ranged from 37.4 percent to 134.1 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on active-channel width ranged from 57.2 percent to 141.3 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on bankfull width ranged from 63.1 percent to 155.5 percent. In most regions, the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics generally had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on active-channel or bankfull width. An exception was the Southeast Plains Region, where all equations based on active-channel width had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on basin and climatic characteristics or bankfull width. Methods for weighting estimates derived from the basin- and climatic-characteristic equations and the channel-width equations also were developed. The weights were based on the cross correlation of residuals from the different methods and the average standard errors of prediction. When all three methods were combined, the average standard errors of prediction ranged from 37.4 percent to 120.2 percent. Weighting of estimates reduced the standard errors of prediction for all T-year flood estimates in four regions, reduced the standard errors of prediction for some T-year flood estimates in two regions, and provided no reduction in average standard error of prediction in two regions. A computer program for solving the regression equations, weighting estimates, and determining reliability of individual estimates was developed and placed on the USGS Montana District World Wide Web page. A new regression method, termed Region of Influence regression, also was tested. Test results indicated that the Region of Influence method was not as reliable as the regional equations based on generalized least squares regression. Two additional methods for estimating flood frequency at ungaged sites located on the same streams as gaged sites also are described. The first method, based on a drainage-area-ratio adjustment, is intended for use on streams where the ungaged site of interest is located near a gaged site. The second method, based on interpolation between gaged sites, is intended for use on streams that have two or more streamflow-gaging stations.

The Significance of the Record Length in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Of all of the potential natural hazards, flood is the most costly in many regions of the world. For example, floods cause over a third of Europe's average annual catastrophe losses and affect about two thirds of the people impacted by natural catastrophes. Increased attention is being paid to determining flow estimates associated with pre-specified return periods so that flood-prone areas can be adequately protected against floods of particular magnitudes or return periods. Flood frequency analysis, which is conducted by using an appropriate probability density function that fits the observed annual maximum flow data, is frequently used for obtaining these flow estimates. Consequently, flood frequency analysis plays an integral role in determining the flood risk in flood prone watersheds. A long annual maximum flow record is vital for obtaining accurate estimates of discharges associated with high return period flows. However, in many areas of the world, flood frequency analysis is conducted with limited flow data or short annual maximum flow records. These inevitably lead to flow estimates that are subject to error. This is especially the case with high return period flow estimates. In this study, several statistical techniques are used to identify errors caused by short annual maximum flow records. The flow estimates used in the error analysis are obtained by fitting a log-Pearson III distribution to the flood time-series. These errors can then be used to better evaluate the return period flows in data limited streams. The study findings, therefore, have important implications for hydrologists, water resources engineers and floodplain managers.

Bayesian Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Estimation at Ungauged Basins Using Climate Information and a Scaling Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, C. H.; Lall, U.

2010-12-01

Flood frequency statistical analysis most often relies on stationary assumptions, where distribution moments (e.g. mean, standard deviation) and associated flood quantiles do not change over time. In this sense, one expects that flood magnitudes and their frequency of occurrence will remain constant as observed in the historical information. However, evidence of inter-annual and decadal climate variability and anthropogenic change as well as an apparent increase in the number and magnitude of flood events across the globe have made the stationary assumption questionable. Here, we show how to estimate flood quantiles (e.g. 100-year flood) at ungauged basins without needing to consider stationarity. A statistical model based on the well known flow-area scaling law is proposed to estimate flood flows at ungauged basins. The slope and intercept scaling law coefficients are assumed time varying and a hierarchical Bayesian model is used to include climate information and reduce parameter uncertainties. Cross-validated results from 34 streamflow gauges located in a nested Basin in Brazil show that the proposed model is able to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged basins with remarkable skills compared with data based estimates using the full record. The model as developed in this work is also able to simulate sequences of flood flows considering global climate changes provided an appropriate climate index developed from the General Circulation Model is used as a predictor. The time varying flood frequency estimates can be used for pricing insurance models, and in a forecast mode for preparations for flooding, and finally, for timing infrastructure investments and location. Non-stationary 95% interval estimation for the 100-year Flood (shaded gray region) and 95% interval for the 100-year flood estimated from data (horizontal dashed and solid lines). The average distribution of the 100-year flood is shown in green in the right side.

An integrated simulation method for flash-flood risk assessment: 2. Effects of changes in land-use under a historical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosso, R.; Rulli, M. C.

The influence of land use changes on flood occurrence and severity in the Bisagno River (Thyrrenian Liguria, N.W. Italy is investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach (Rulli and Rosso, 2002). High resolution land-use maps for the area were reconstructed and scenario simulations were made for a pre-industrial (1878), an intermediate (1930) and a current (1980) year. Land-use effects were explored to assess the consequences of distributed changes in land use due to agricultural practice and urbanisation. Hydraulic conveyance effects were considered, to assess the consequences of channel modifications associated with engineering works in the lower Bisagno River network. Flood frequency analyses of the annual flood series, retrieved from the simulations, were used to examine the effect of land-use change and river conveyance on flood regime. The impact of these effects proved to be negligible in the upper Bisagno River, moderate in the downstream river and severe in the small tributaries in the lower Bisagno valley that drain densely populated urban areas. The simulation approach is shown to be capable of incorporating historical data on landscape and river patterns into quantitative methods for risk assessment.

Direct trust-based security scheme for RREQ flooding attack in mobile ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sunil; Dutta, Kamlesh

2017-06-01

The routing algorithms in MANETs exhibit distributed and cooperative behaviour which makes them easy target for denial of service (DoS) attacks. RREQ flooding attack is a flooding-type DoS attack in context to Ad hoc On Demand Distance Vector (AODV) routing protocol, where the attacker broadcasts massive amount of bogus Route Request (RREQ) packets to set up the route with the non-existent or existent destination in the network. This paper presents direct trust-based security scheme to detect and mitigate the impact of RREQ flooding attack on the network, in which, every node evaluates the trust degree value of its neighbours through analysing the frequency of RREQ packets originated by them over a short period of time. Taking the node's trust degree value as the input, the proposed scheme is smoothly extended for suppressing the surplus RREQ and bogus RREQ flooding packets at one-hop neighbours during the route discovery process. This scheme distinguishes itself from existing techniques by not directly blocking the service of a normal node due to increased amount of RREQ packets in some unusual conditions. The results obtained throughout the simulation experiments clearly show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed defensive scheme.

Use of frequency analysis and the extended streamflow prediction procedure to estimate evacuation dates for the joint-use pool of Pueblo Reservoir, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard; Nickless, R.C.

1994-01-01

Part of the storage space of Pueblo Reservoir consists of a 65,950 acre-foot joint-use pool (JUP) that can be used to provide additional conservation capacity from November 1 to April 14; however, the JUP must be evacuated by April 15 and used only for flood-control capacity until November 1. A study was completed to determine if the JUP possibly could be used for conservation storage for any number of days from April 15 through May 14 under certain hydrologic conditions. The methods of the study were: (1) Frequency analysis of recorded daily mean discharge data for streamflow-gaging stations upstream and downstream from Pueblo Reservoir, and (2) Implementation of the extended streamflow prediction (ESP) procedure for the Arkansas River basin upstream from the reservoir. The frequency analyses enabled estimation of daily discharges at selected exceedance probabilities (EP's), including the 0.01 EP that was used in design of the flood- storage capacity of Pueblo Reservoir. The ESP procedure enabled probabilistic forecasts of inflow volume to the reservoir for April 15 through May 14. Daily discharges derived from the frequency analyses were routed through Pueblo Reservoir to estimate evacuation dates of the JUP for different reservoir inflow volumes; the estimates indicated a relation between the inflow volume and the JUP evacuation date. To apply the study results, only a ESP forecast of the April 15-May 14 reservoir inflow volume is needed. Study results indicate the JUP possibly could be used as late as May 5 depending on the forecast inflow volume.

Observational evidence on the effects of mega-fires on the frequency of hydrogeomorphic hazards. The case of the Peloponnese fires of 2007 in Greece.

PubMed

Diakakis, M; Nikolopoulos, E I; Mavroulis, S; Vassilakis, E; Korakaki, E

2017-08-15

Even though rare, mega-fires raging during very dry and windy conditions, record catastrophic impacts on infrastructure, the environment and human life, as well as extremely high suppression and rehabilitation costs. Apart from the direct consequences, mega-fires induce long-term effects in the geomorphological and hydrological processes, influencing environmental factors that in turn can affect the occurrence of other natural hazards, such as floods and mass movement phenomena. This work focuses on the forest fire of 2007 in Peloponnese, Greece that to date corresponds to the largest fire in the country's record that burnt 1773km 2 , causing 78 fatalities and very significant damages in property and infrastructure. Specifically, this work examines the occurrence of flood and mass movement phenomena, before and after this mega-fire and analyses different influencing factors to investigate the degree to which the 2007 fire and/or other parameters have affected their frequency. Observational evidence based on several data sources collected during the period 1989-2016 show that the 2007 fire has contributed to an increase of average flood and mass movement events frequency by approximately 3.3 and 5.6 times respectively. Fire affected areas record a substantial increase in the occurrence of both phenomena, presenting a noticeably stronger increase compared to neighbouring areas that have not been affected. Examination of the monthly occurrence of events showed an increase even in months of the year were rainfall intensity presented decreasing trends. Although no major land use changes has been identified and chlorophyll is shown to recover 2years after the fire incident, differences on the type of vegetation as tall forest has been substituted with lower vegetation are considered significant drivers for the observed increase in flood and mass movement frequency in the fire affected areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flood of August 2, 1972, in the Little Maquoketa River basin, Dubuque County, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, Albert J.

1973-01-01

Flood-peak discharges at 12 sites, basin rainfall, a description of the 1972 flood, brief accounts of other major floods in the basin, maximum flood peaks in northeastern Iowa, selected flood-frequency data, and annual floods of record at 5 sites are given.

River flood plains: Some observations on their formation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolman, M. Gordon; Leopold, Luna Bergere

1957-01-01

On many small rivers and most great rivers, the flood plain consists of channel and overbank deposits. The proportion of the latter is generally very small.Frequency studies indicate that the flood plains of many streams of different sizes flowing in diverse physiographic and climatic regions are subject to flooding about once a year.The uniform frequency of flooding of the flood-plain surface and the small amount of deposition observed in great floods (average 0.07 foot) support the conclusion that overbank deposition contributes only a minor part of the material constituting the flood plain. The relatively high velocities (1 to 4 fps) which can occur in overbank flows and the reduction in sediment concentration which often accompanies large floods may also help account for this. Although lateral migration of channels is important in controlling the elevation of the flood plain, rates of migration are extremely variable and alone cannot account for the uniform relation the flood-plain surface bears to the channel.Detailed studies of flood plains in Maryland and in North Carolina indicate that it is difficult to differentiate between channel and overbank deposits in a stratigraphic section alone.Because deposition on the flood plain does not continue indefinitely, the flood-plain surface can only be transformed into a terrace surface by some tectonic or climatic change which alters the regimen of the river and causes it to entrench itself below its established bed and associated flood plain. A terrace, then, is distinguished from a flood plain by the frequency with which each is overflowed.

Analysis of the linkage between rain and flood regime and its application to regional flood frequency estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Burn, Donald H.

2002-04-01

Improving techniques of flood frequency estimation at ungauged sites is one of the foremost goals of contemporary hydrology. River flood regime is a resultant reflection of a composite catchment hydrologic response to flood producing processes. In this sense the process of identifying homogeneous pooling groups can be plausibly based on catchment similarity in flood regime. Unfortunately the application of any pooling approach that is based on flood regime is restricted to gauged sites. Because flood regime can be markedly determined by rainfall regime, catchment similarity in rainfall regime can be an alternative option for identifying flood frequency pooling groups. An advantage of such a pooling approach is that rainfall data are usually spatially and temporary more abundant than flood data and the approach can also be applied at ungauged sites. Therefore in this study we have quantified the linkage between rainfall and flood regime and explored the appropriateness of substituting rainfall regime for flood regime in regional pooling schemes. Two different approaches to describing rainfall regime similarity using tools of directional statistics have been tested and used for evaluation of the potential of rainfall regime for identification of hydrologically homogeneous pooling groups. The outputs were compared to an existing pooling framework adopted in the Flood Estimation Handbook. The results demonstrate that regional pooling based on rainfall regime information leads to a high number of initially homogeneous groups and seems to be a sound pooling alternative for catchments with a close linkage between rain and flood regimes.

Extent and frequency of floods on the Schuylkill River near Phoenixville and Pottstown, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busch, William F.; Shaw, Lewis C.

1973-01-01

Knowledge of the frequency and extent of flooding is an important requirement for the design of all works of man bordering or encroaching on flood plains. The proper design of bridges, culverts, dams, highways, levees, reservoirs, sewage-disposal systems, waterworks and all structures on the flood plains of streams requires careful consideration of flood hazards. -1- By use of relations presented in this report, the extent, depth, and frequency of flooding can be estimated for any site along the reach of the Schuylkill River from Oaks to Pottstown. These flood data are presented so that regulatory agencies, organizations, and individuals may have a technical basis for making decisions on the use of flood-prone areas. The Delaware River Basin Commission and the U. S. Geological Survey regard this program of flood-plain-inundation studies as a positive step toward flood-damage prevention. Flood-plaininundation studies are a prerequisite to flood-plain management which may include a mixture of flood-control structures and/or land-use regulations. Both physical works and flood-plain regulations are included in the Comprehensive Plan for development of the Delaware River basin, of which the Schuylkill River is a part. Recommendations for land use, or suggestions for limitations of land use, are not made herein. Other reports on use and regulation of land in flood-prone areas are available (Dola, 1961; White, 1961; American Society of Civil Engineers Task Force on Flood Plain Regulations, 1962; and Goddard, 1963). The primary responsibility for planning for optimum land use in the flood plain and the implementation of flood-plain zoning or other regulations to achieve such optimum use rests with State, and local interests.

Model synthesis in frequency analysis of Missouri floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hauth, Leland D.

1974-01-01

Synthetic flood records for 43 small-stream sites aided in definition of techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in Missouri. The long-term synthetic flood records were generated by use of a digital computer model of the rainfall-runoff process. A relatively short period of concurrent rainfall and runoff data observed at each of the 43 sites was used to calibrate the model, and rainfall records covering from 66 to 78 years for four Missouri sites and pan-evaporation data were used to generate the synthetic records. Flood magnitude and frequency characteristics of both the synthetic records and observed long-term flood records available for 109 large-stream sites were used in a multiple-regression analysis to define relations for estimating future flood characteristics at ungaged sites. That analysis indicated that drainage basin size and slope were the most useful estimating variables. It also indicated that a more complex regression model than the commonly used log-linear one was needed for the range of drainage basin sizes available in this study.

Development of regional skews for selected flood durations for the Central Valley Region, California, based on data through water year 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Berenbrock, Charles; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Ferris, Justin C.; Knifong, Donna L.

2012-01-01

Flood-frequency information is important in the Central Valley region of California because of the high risk of catastrophic flooding. Most traditional flood-frequency studies focus on peak flows, but for the assessment of the adequacy of reservoirs, levees, other flood control structures, sustained flood flow (flood duration) frequency data are needed. This study focuses on rainfall or rain-on-snow floods, rather than the annual maximum, because rain events produce the largest floods in the region. A key to estimating flood-duration frequency is determining the regional skew for such data. Of the 50 sites used in this study to determine regional skew, 28 sites were considered to have little to no significant regulated flows, and for the 22 sites considered significantly regulated, unregulated daily flow data were synthesized by using reservoir storage changes and diversion records. The unregulated, annual maximum rainfall flood flows for selected durations (1-day, 3-day, 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day) for all 50 sites were furnished by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Station skew was determined by using the expected moments algorithm program for fitting the Pearson Type 3 flood-frequency distribution to the logarithms of annual flood-duration data. Bayesian generalized least squares regression procedures used in earlier studies were modified to address problems caused by large cross correlations among concurrent rainfall floods in California and to address the extensive censoring of low outliers at some sites, by using the new expected moments algorithm for fitting the LP3 distribution to rainfall flood-duration data. To properly account for these problems and to develop suitable regional-skew regression models and regression diagnostics, a combination of ordinary least squares, weighted least squares, and Bayesian generalized least squares regressions were adopted. This new methodology determined that a nonlinear model relating regional skew to mean basin elevation was the best model for each flood duration. The regional-skew values ranged from -0.74 for a flood duration of 1-day and a mean basin elevation less than 2,500 feet to values near 0 for a flood duration of 7-days and a mean basin elevation greater than 4,500 feet. This relation between skew and elevation reflects the interaction of snow and rain, which increases with increased elevation. The regional skews are more accurate, and the mean squared errors are less than in the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data's National skew map of Bulletin 17B.

Rapid Risk Evaluation (ER2) Using MS Excel Spreadsheet: a Case Study of Fredericton (new Brunswick, Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrath, H.; Stefanakis, E.; Nastev, M.

2016-06-01

Conventional knowledge of the flood hazard alone (extent and frequency) is not sufficient for informed decision-making. The public safety community needs tools and guidance to adequately undertake flood hazard risk assessment in order to estimate respective damages and social and economic losses. While many complex computer models have been developed for flood risk assessment, they require highly trained personnel to prepare the necessary input (hazard, inventory of the built environment, and vulnerabilities) and analyze model outputs. As such, tools which utilize open-source software or are built within popular desktop software programs are appealing alternatives. The recently developed Rapid Risk Evaluation (ER2) application runs scenario based loss assessment analyses in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. User input is limited to a handful of intuitive drop-down menus utilized to describe the building type, age, occupancy and the expected water level. In anticipation of local depth damage curves and other needed vulnerability parameters, those from the U.S. FEMA's Hazus-Flood software have been imported and temporarily accessed in conjunction with user input to display exposure and estimated economic losses related to the structure and the content of the building. Building types and occupancies representative of those most exposed to flooding in Fredericton (New Brunswick) were introduced and test flood scenarios were run. The algorithm was successfully validated against results from the Hazus-Flood model for the same building types and flood depths.

A uniform technique for flood frequency analysis.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, W.O.

1985-01-01

This uniform technique consisted of fitting the logarithms of annual peak discharges to a Pearson Type III distribution using the method of moments. The objective was to adopt a consistent approach for the estimation of floodflow frequencies that could be used in computing average annual flood losses for project evaluation. In addition, a consistent approach was needed for defining equitable flood-hazard zones as part of the National Flood Insurance Program. -from ASCE Publications Information

Documentary evidence of past floods in Europe and their utility in flood frequency estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjeldsen, T. R.; Macdonald, N.; Lang, M.; Mediero, L.; Albuquerque, T.; Bogdanowicz, E.; Brázdil, R.; Castellarin, A.; David, V.; Fleig, A.; Gül, G. O.; Kriauciuniene, J.; Kohnová, S.; Merz, B.; Nicholson, O.; Roald, L. A.; Salinas, J. L.; Sarauskiene, D.; Šraj, M.; Strupczewski, W.; Szolgay, J.; Toumazis, A.; Vanneuville, W.; Veijalainen, N.; Wilson, D.

2014-09-01

This review outlines the use of documentary evidence of historical flood events in contemporary flood frequency estimation in European countries. The study shows that despite widespread consensus in the scientific literature on the utility of documentary evidence, the actual migration from academic to practical application has been limited. A detailed review of flood frequency estimation guidelines from different countries showed that the value of historical data is generally recognised, but practical methods for systematic and routine inclusion of this type of data into risk analysis are in most cases not available. Studies of historical events were identified in most countries, and good examples of national databases attempting to collate the available information were identified. The conclusion is that there is considerable potential for improving the reliability of the current flood risk assessments by harvesting the valuable information on past extreme events contained in the historical data sets.

Regional flood reconstruction in Kullu District (Himachal Pradesh, India): implication for Disaster Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Stoffel, Markus; Trappmann, Daniel; Shekhar, Mayank; Bhattacharyya, Amalava

2016-04-01

Floods are a common natural hazard in the Western Indian Himalayas. They usually occur when humid monsoon airs are lifted along the Himalayan relief, thereby creating intense orographic rainfall and runoff, a process which is often enhanced by simultaneous snowmelt. Monsoon floods are considered a major threat in the region and frequently affect inhabited valleys, disturbing the status quo of communities, stressing the future welfare and condition of their economic development. Given the assumption that ongoing and future climatic changes may impact on monsoon patterns and extreme precipitation, the implementation of adaptation policies in this region is critically needed in order to improve local resilience of Himalayan communities. However, its success implementation is highly dependent on system knowledge and hence reliable baseline data of past disasters. In this communication, we demonstrate how newly gained knowledge on past flood incidents may improve flood hazard and risk assessments. Based on growth-ring analysis of trees growing in the floodplains and other, more classical paleo-hydrology techniques, we reconstruct the regional flood activity for the last decades. This information is then included as non-systematic data into the regional flood frequency by using Bayesian Markov Monte Carlo Chain algorithms, so as to analyse the impact of the additional data on flood hazard assessments. Moreover, through a detailed analysis of three flood risk hotspots, we demonstrate how the newly gained knowledge on past flood disasters derived from indirect proxies can explain failures in the implementation of disaster risk management (DRM). Our methodology allowed identification of thirty-four unrecorded flood events at the study sites located in the upper reaches since the early 20th century, and thus completion of the existing flood history in the region based on flow measurements in the lower part of the catchment. We observe that 56% of the floods occurred simultaneously in more than two catchments, and that in 15% of the cases more than four catchments were affected. By contrast, 44% of event years were related with one specific catchment, corroborating the assumption that large-scale atmospheric conditions and specific weather and/or geomorphic conditions may operate as triggers of floods in Kullu district. The inclusion of peak discharge data related with these ungauged extreme flood events into the regional flood frequency evidenced that flood hazard was systematically underestimated. Our results allowed to highlight the potential causes of three paradigmatic cases of flood disaster incidents at Kullus district, suggesting that the lack of knowledge on past flood disaster could play an important role in Disaster Risk managment (DRM) at three actors-levels i.e. civil engineering, local authorities and inhabitants. These observations show that reliable DRM implementation is conditioned by lack of data to characterize the flood process, and therefore put in value the palaeohydrological approach used in this study.

Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.

PubMed

Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E

2017-09-11

Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.

Processing and utilization of LiDAR data as a support for a good management of DDBR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nichersu, I.; Grigoras, I.; Constantinescu, A.; Mierla, M.; Tifanov, C.

2012-04-01

Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR) has 5,800 km2 as surface and it is situated in the South-East of Europe, in the East of Romania. The paper is taking into account the data related to the elevation surfaces of the DDBR (Digital Terrain Model DTM and Digital Surface Model DSM). To produce such kind of models of elevation for the entire area of DDBR it was used the most modern method that utilizes the Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR). The raw LiDAR data (x, y, z) for each point were transformed into grid formats for DTM and DSM. Based on these data multiple GIS analyses can be done for management purposes : hydraulic modeling 1D2D scenarios, flooding regime and protection, biomass volume estimation, GIS biodiversity processing. These analyses are very useful in the management planning process. The hydraulic modeling 1D2D scenarios are used by the administrative authority to predict the sense of the fluvial water flow and also to predict the places where the flooding could occur. Also it can be predicted the surface of the terrain that will be occupied by the water from floods. Flooding regime gives information about the frequency of the floods and also the intensity of these. In the same time it could be predicted the time of water remanence period. The protection face of the flooding regime is in direct relation with the socio-cultural communities and all their annexes those that are in risk of being flooded. This raises the problem of building dykes and other flooding protection systems. The biomass volume contains information derived from the LiDAR cloud points that describes only the vegetation. The volume of biomass is an important item in the management of a Biosphere Reserve. Also the LiDAR cloud points that refer to vegetation could help in identifying the groups of vegetal association. All these information corroborated with other information build good premises for a good management. Keywords: Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, LiDAR data, DTM, DSM, flooding, management

The influence of major dams on hydrology through the drainage network of the Sacramento River basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, M.B.

2007-01-01

This paper reports basinwide patterns of hydrograph alteration via statistical and graphical analysis from a network of long-term streamflow gauges located various distances downstream of major dams and confluences in the Sacramento River basin in California, USA. Streamflow data from 10 gauging stations downstream of major dams were divided into hydrologic series corresponding to the periods before and after dam construction. Pre- and post-dam flows were compared with respect to hydrograph characteristics representing frequency, magnitude and shape: annual flood peak, annual flow trough, annual flood volume, time to flood peak, flood drawdown time and interarrival time. The use of such a suite of characteristics within a statistical and graphical framework allows for generalising distinct strategies of flood control operation that can be identified without any a priori knowledge of operations rules. Dam operation is highly dependent on the ratio of reservoir capacity to annual flood volume (impounded runoff index). Dams with high values of this index generally completely cut off flood peaks thus reducing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. Those with low values conduct early and late flow releases to extend the hydrograph, increasing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. The analyses reveal minimal flood control benefits from foothill dams in the lower Sacramento River (i.e. dissipation of the down-valley flood control signal). The lower part of the basin is instead reliant on a weir and bypass system to control lowland flooding. Data from a control gauge (i.e. with no upstream dams) suggest a background signature of global climate change expressed as shortened flood hydrograph falling limbs and lengthened flood interarrival times at low exceedence probabilities. This research has implications for flood control, water resource management, aquatic and riparian ecosystems and for rehabilitation strategies involving flow alteration and/or manipulation of sediment supplies. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A new concept to study the effect of climate change on different flood types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin; Nied, Manuela; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Flooding is triggered by the interaction of various processes. Especially important are the hydrological conditions prior to the event (e.g. soil saturation, snow cover) and the meteorological conditions during flood development (e.g. rainfall, temperature). Depending on these (pre-) conditions different flood types may develop such as long-rain floods, short-rain floods, flash floods, snowmelt floods and rain-on-snow floods. A new concept taking these factors into account is introduced and applied to flooding in the Elbe River basin. During the period September 1957 to August 2002, 82 flood events are identified and classified according to their flood type. The hydrological and meteorological conditions at each day during the analysis period are detemined. In case of the hydrological conditions, a soil moisture pattern classification is carried out. Soil moisture is simulated with a rainfall-runoff model driven by atmospheric observations. Days of similar soil moisture patterns are identified by a principle component analysis and a subsequent cluster analysis on the leading principal components. The meteorological conditions are identified by applying a cluster analysis to the geopotential height, temperature and humidity fields of the ERA40 reanalysis data set using the SANDRA cluster algorithm. We are able to identify specific pattern combinations of hydrological pre-conditions and meteorological conditions which favour different flood types. Based on these results it is possible to analyse the effect of climate change on different flood types. As an example we show first results obtained using an ensemble of climate scenario simulations of ECHAM5 MPIOM model, taking only the changes in the meteorological conditions into account. According to the simulations, the frequency of the meteorological patterns favouring long-rain, short-rain and flash floods will not change significantly under future climate conditions. A significant increase is, however, predicted for the amount of precipitation associated with many of the relevant meteorological patterns. The increase varies between 12 and 67% depending on the weather pattern.

Techniques for estimating flood peak discharges for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, R.L.; Bergman, D.L.

1985-01-01

Statewide regression relations for Oklahoma were determined for estimating peak discharge of floods for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years. The independent variables required for estimating flood discharge for rural streams are contributing drainage area and mean annual precipitation. Main-channel slope, a variable used in previous reports, was found to contribute very little to the accuracy of the relations and was not used. The regression equations are applicable for watersheds with drainage areas less than 2,500 square miles that are not significantly affected by regulation from manmade works. These relations are presented in graphical form for easy application. Limitations on the use of the regression relations and the reliability of regression estimates for rural unregulated streams are discussed. Basin and climatic characteristics, log-Pearson Type III statistics and the flood-frequency relations for 226 gaging stations in Oklahoma and adjacent states are presented. Regression relations are investigated for estimating flood magnitude and frequency for watersheds affected by regulation from small FRS (floodwater retarding structures) built by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service in their watershed protection and flood prevention program. Gaging-station data from nine FRS regulated sites in Oklahoma and one FRS regulated site in Kansas are used. For sites regulated by FRS, an adjustment of the statewide rural regression relations can be used to estimate flood magnitude and frequency. The statewide regression equations are used by substituting the drainage area below the FRS, or drainage area that represents the percent of the basin unregulated, in the contributing drainage area parameter to obtain flood-frequency estimates. Flood-frequency curves and flow-duration curves are presented for five gaged sites to illustrate the effects of FRS regulation on peak discharge.

Flood frequency matters: Why climate change degrades deep-water quality of peri-alpine lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, Gabriel; Wessels, Martin; Wüest, Alfred

2016-09-01

Sediment-laden riverine floods transport large quantities of dissolved oxygen into the receiving deep layers of lakes. Hence, the water quality of deep lakes is strongly influenced by the frequency of riverine floods. Although flood frequency reflects climate conditions, the effects of climate variability on the water quality of deep lakes is largely unknown. We quantified the effects of climate variability on the potential shifts in the flood regime of the Alpine Rhine, the main catchment of Lake Constance, and determined the intrusion depths of riverine density-driven underflows and the subsequent effects on water exchange rates in the lake. A simplified hydrodynamic underflow model was developed and validated with observed river inflow and underflow events. The model was implemented to estimate underflow statistics for different river inflow scenarios. Using this approach, we integrated present and possible future flood frequencies to underflow occurrences and intrusion depths in Lake Constance. The results indicate that more floods will increase the number of underflows and the intensity of deep-water renewal - and consequently will cause higher deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Vice versa, fewer floods weaken deep-water renewal and lead to lower deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Meanwhile, a change from glacial nival regime (present) to a nival pluvial regime (future) is expected to decrease deep-water renewal. While flood frequencies are not expected to change noticeably for the next decades, it is most likely that increased winter discharge and decreased summer discharge will reduce the number of deep density-driven underflows by 10% and favour shallower riverine interflows in the upper hypolimnion. The renewal in the deepest layers is expected to be reduced by nearly 27%. This study underlines potential consequences of climate change on the occurrence of deep river underflows and water residence times in deep lakes.

Extreme Flood Events Over the Past 300 Years Recorded in the Sediments of a Mountain Lake in the Altay Mountains, Northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhou, J.; Shen, B.; Zeng, H.

2017-12-01

Global climate change has the potential to accelerate the hydrological cycle, which may further enhance the temporal frequency of regional extreme floods. Climatic models predict that intra-annual rainfall variability will intensify, which will shift current rainfall regimes towards more extreme systems with lower precipitation frequencies, longer dry periods, and larger individual precipitation events worldwide. Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, currently available instrumental data are not long enough for capturing the most extreme events, thus the acquisition of long duration datasets for historical floods that extend beyond available instrumental records is clearly an important step in discerning trends in flood frequency and magnitude with respect to climate change. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Grain parameters and frequency distributions both demonstrate that two abrupt environment changes exist within the lake sedimentary sequence. Based on canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and C-M pattern analysis, two flood events corresponding to ca. 1760 AD and ca. 1890 AD were identified, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions according to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan areas. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event in ca. 1760 AD seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

Estimates of Flow Duration, Mean Flow, and Peak-Discharge Frequency Values for Kansas Stream Locations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Charles A.; Wolock, David M.; Artman, Joshua C.

2004-01-01

Streamflow statistics of flow duration and peak-discharge frequency were estimated for 4,771 individual locations on streams listed on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. These statistics included the flow-duration values of 90, 75, 50, 25, and 10 percent, as well as the mean flow value. Peak-discharge frequency values were estimated for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods. Least-squares multiple regression techniques were used, along with Tobit analyses, to develop equations for estimating flow-duration values of 90, 75, 50, 25, and 10 percent and the mean flow for uncontrolled flow stream locations. The contributing-drainage areas of 149 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Kansas and parts of surrounding States that had flow uncontrolled by Federal reservoirs and used in the regression analyses ranged from 2.06 to 12,004 square miles. Logarithmic transformations of climatic and basin data were performed to yield the best linear relation for developing equations to compute flow durations and mean flow. In the regression analyses, the significant climatic and basin characteristics, in order of importance, were contributing-drainage area, mean annual precipitation, mean basin permeability, and mean basin slope. The analyses yielded a model standard error of prediction range of 0.43 logarithmic units for the 90-percent duration analysis to 0.15 logarithmic units for the 10-percent duration analysis. The model standard error of prediction was 0.14 logarithmic units for the mean flow. Regression equations used to estimate peak-discharge frequency values were obtained from a previous report, and estimates for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods were determined for this report. The regression equations and an interpolation procedure were used to compute flow durations, mean flow, and estimates of peak-discharge frequency for locations along uncontrolled flow streams on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. Flow durations, mean flow, and peak-discharge frequency values determined at available gaging stations were used to interpolate the regression-estimated flows for the stream locations where available. Streamflow statistics for locations that had uncontrolled flow were interpolated using data from gaging stations weighted according to the drainage area and the bias between the regression-estimated and gaged flow information. On controlled reaches of Kansas streams, the streamflow statistics were interpolated between gaging stations using only gaged data weighted by drainage area.

Analysis of Non-Tropical Cyclone Induced Flood Events over South East Asia: Investigating Flood Frequency and Extremes in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcella, M. P.; CHEN, C.; Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Much work has been completed in analyzing Southeast Asia's tropical cyclone climatology and the associated flooding throughout the region. Although, an active and strong monsoon season also brings major flooding across the Philippines resulting in the loss of lives and significant economic impacts, only a limited amount of research work has been conducted to investigate the frequency and flood loss estimates of these non-tropical cyclone (TC) storms. In this study, using the TRMM 3-hourly rainfall product, tropical cyclone rainfall is removed to construct a non-TC rainfall climatology across the region. Given this data, stochastically generated rainfall that is both spatially and temporally correlated across the country is created to generate a longer historically-based record of non-TC precipitation. After defining the rainfall criteria that constitutes a flood event based on observed floods and TRMM data, this event definition is applied to the stochastic catalog of rainfall to determine flood events. Subsequently, a thorough analysis of non-TC flood extremes, frequency, and distribution is completed for the country of the Philippines. As a result, the above methodology and datasets provide a unique opportunity to further study flood occurrences and their extremes across most of South East Asia.

Extreme Mississippi River Floods in the Late Holocene: Reconstructions and Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, S. E.; Giosan, L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Dee, S.

2016-12-01

Extreme flooding of the Mississippi River is costly in both economic and social terms. Despite ambitious engineering projects conceived in the early 20th century to mitigate damage from extreme floods, economic losses due to flooding have increased over recent years. Forecasting extreme flood occurrence over seasonal or longer time-scales remains a major challenge - especially in light of shifts in hydroclimatic conditions expected in response to continued greenhouse forcing. Here, we present findings from a series of paleoflood records that span the late Holocene derived from laminated sediments deposited in abandoned channels of the Mississippi River. These sedimentary archives record individual overbank floods as unique events beds with upward fining that we identify using grain-size analysis, bulk geochemistry, and radiography. We use sedimentological characteristics to reconstruct flood magnitude by calibrating our records against instrumental streamflow data from nearby gauging stations. We also use the Last Millennium Experiments of the Community Earth System Model (CESM-LME) and historical reanalysis data to examine the state of climate system around river discharge extremes. Our paleo-flood records exhibit strong non-stationarities in flood frequency and magnitude that are associated with fluctuations in the frequency of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), because the warm ENSO phase is associated with increased surface water storage of the lower Mississippi basin that leads to enhanced runoff delivery to the main channel. We also show that the early 20th century was a period of anomalously high flood frequency and magnitude due to the combined effects of river engineering and natural climate variability. Our findings imply that flood risk along the lower Mississippi River is tightly coupled to the frequency of ENSO, highlighting the need for robust projections of ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

Peak discharge, flood frequency, and peak stage of floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kohn, Michael S.; Stevens, Michael R.; Mommandi, Amanullah; Khan, Aziz R.

2017-12-14

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Big Cottonwood Creek site”), on August 23, 2016, and on Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Fountain Creek site”), on August 29, 2016. A one-dimensional hydraulic model was used to estimate the peak discharge. To define the flood frequency of each flood, peak-streamflow regional-regression equations or statistical analyses of USGS streamgage records were used to estimate annual exceedance probability of the peak discharge. A survey of the high-water mark profile was used to determine the peak stage, and the limitations and accuracy of each component also are presented in this report. Collection and computation of flood data, such as peak discharge, annual exceedance probability, and peak stage at structures critical to Colorado’s infrastructure are an important addition to the flood data collected annually by the USGS.The peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site was 917 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The peak discharge of the August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site was 5,970 ft3/s with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater).The August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.01 (return period greater than the 100-year flood) and had an annual exceedance probability of greater than 0.005 (return period less than the 200-year flood). The August 23, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm), which is a statistically common (high probability) storm. The Big Cottonwood Creek site is downstream from the Hayden Pass Fire burn area, which dramatically altered the hydrology of the watershed and caused this statistically rare (low probability) flood from a statistically common (high probability) storm. The peak flood stage at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 50 culvert was 6,438.32 feet (ft) above the North American Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).The August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site had an estimated annual exceedance probability of 0.5505 (return period equal to the 1.8-year flood). The August 29, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm). The peak stage during this flood at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 24 bridge was 5,832.89 ft (NAVD 88).Slope-area indirect discharge measurements were carried out at the Big Cottonwood Creek and Fountain Creek sites to estimate peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood and August 29, 2016, flood, respectively. The USGS computer program Slope-Area Computation Graphical User Interface was used to compute the peak discharge by adding the surveyed cross sections with Manning roughness coefficient assignments to the high-water marks. The Manning roughness coefficients for each cross section were estimated in the field using the Cowan method.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

2015-08-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Flood model for Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

2017-04-01

Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula scheme to generate probabilistic flood event set. The derived design flows for selected rivers inside model domain were used as an input for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation modelling techniques (using the tool TUFLOW by BMT WBM) on mesh size 30 x 30 metres. Outputs from inundation modelling and stochastic event set were implemented in the Aon Benfield's platform ELEMENTS developed and managed internally by Impact Forecasting; Aon Benfield internal catastrophe model development center. The model was designed to evaluate potential financial impact caused by fluvial flooding on portfolios of insurance and/or reinsurance companies. The structure of presented model follows typical scheme of financial loss catastrophe model and combines hazard with exposure and vulnerability to produce potential financial loss expressed in the form of loss exceedance probability curve and many other insured perspectives, such as average annual loss, event or quantile loss tables and etc. Model can take financial inputs as well as provide split of results for exact specified location or related higher administrative units: municipalities and 5-digit postal codes.

Estimating magnitude and frequency of floods using the PeakFQ 7.0 program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veilleux, Andrea G.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Flynn, Kathleen M.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Hummel, Paul R.

2014-01-01

Flood-frequency analysis provides information about the magnitude and frequency of flood discharges based on records of annual maximum instantaneous peak discharges collected at streamgages. The information is essential for defining flood-hazard areas, for managing floodplains, and for designing bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other flood-control structures. Bulletin 17B (B17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (IACWD; 1982) codifies the standard methodology for conducting flood-frequency studies in the United States. B17B specifies that annual peak-flow data are to be fit to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. Specific methods are also prescribed for improving skew estimates using regional skew information, tests for high and low outliers, adjustments for low outliers and zero flows, and procedures for incorporating historical flood information. The authors of B17B identified various needs for methodological improvement and recommended additional study. In response to these needs, the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI, successor to IACWD; http://acwi.gov/, Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH), Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG), has recommended modest changes to B17B. These changes include adoption of a generalized method-of-moments estimator denoted the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) (Cohn and others, 1997) and a generalized version of the Grubbs-Beck test for low outliers (Cohn and others, 2013). The SOH requested that the USGS implement these changes in a user-friendly, publicly accessible program.

Interim Reliability Evaluation Program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Main report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was made of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant as part of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP). Specific goals of the study were to identify the dominant contributors to core melt, develop a foundation for more extensive use of PRA methods, expand the cadre of experienced PRA practitioners, and apply procedures for extension of IREP analyses to other domestic light water reactors. Event tree and fault tree analyses were used to estimate the frequency of accident sequences initiated by transients and loss of coolant accidents. External events such as floods,more » fires, earthquakes, and sabotage were beyond the scope of this study and were, therefore, excluded. From these sequences, the dominant contributors to probable core melt frequency were chosen. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed on these sequences to better understand the limitations associated with the estimated sequence frequencies. Dominant sequences were grouped according to common containment failure modes and corresponding release categories on the basis of comparison with analyses of similar designs rather than on the basis of detailed plant-specific calculations.« less

Combining information from multiple flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Vine, Nataliya

2016-04-01

This study demonstrates, in the context of flood frequency analysis, the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach explicitly accommodates shared multimodel discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, and treats the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The methodology is applied to flood estimates from multiple hydrological projections (the Future Flows Hydrology data set) for 135 catchments in the UK. The advantages of the approach are shown to be: (1) to ensure adequate "baseline" with which to compare future changes; (2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; (3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; (4) to diminish the importance of model consistency when model biases are large; and (5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

Hawaii StreamStats; a web application for defining drainage-basin characteristics and estimating peak-streamflow statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosa, Sarah N.; Oki, Delwyn S.

2010-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are necessary for the safe and efficient design of roads, bridges, water-conveyance structures, and flood-control projects and for the management of flood plains and flood-prone areas. StreamStats provides a simple, fast, and reproducible method to define drainage-basin characteristics and estimate the frequency and magnitude of peak discharges in Hawaii?s streams using recently developed regional regression equations. StreamStats allows the user to estimate the magnitude of floods for streams where data from stream-gaging stations do not exist. Existing estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges in Hawaii can be improved with continued operation of existing stream-gaging stations and installation of additional gaging stations for areas where limited stream-gaging data are available.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.

PubMed

Dahl, Kristina A; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

PubMed Central

Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years. PMID:28158209

Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall for the Baltimore Metropolitan region based on stochastic storm transposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z.; Smith, J. A.; Yang, L.; Baeck, M. L.; Wright, D.; Liu, S.

2017-12-01

Regional frequency analyses of extreme rainfall are critical for development of engineering hydrometeorology procedures. In conventional approaches, the assumptions that `design storms' have specified time profiles and are uniform in space are commonly applied but often not appropriate, especially over regions with heterogeneous environments (due to topography, water-land boundaries and land surface properties). In this study, we present regional frequency analyses of extreme rainfall for Baltimore study region combining storm catalogs of rainfall fields derived from weather radar and stochastic storm transposition (SST, developed by Wright et al., 2013). The study region is Dead Run, a small (14.3 km2) urban watershed, in the Baltimore Metropolitan region. Our analyses build on previous empirical and modeling studies showing pronounced spatial heterogeneities in rainfall due to the complex terrain, including the Chesapeake Bay to the east, mountainous terrain to the west and urbanization in this region. We expand the original SST approach by applying a multiplier field that accounts for spatial heterogeneities in extreme rainfall. We also characterize the spatial heterogeneities of extreme rainfall distribution through analyses of rainfall fields in the storm catalogs. We examine the characteristics of regional extreme rainfall and derive intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves using the SST approach for heterogeneous regions. Our results highlight the significant heterogeneity of extreme rainfall in this region. Estimates of IDF show the advantages of SST in capturing the space-time structure of extreme rainfall. We also illustrate application of SST analyses for flood frequency analyses using a distributed hydrological model. Reference: Wright, D. B., J. A. Smith, G. Villarini, and M. L. Baeck (2013), Estimating the frequency of extreme rainfall using weather radar and stochastic storm transposition, J. Hydrol., 488, 150-165.

The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

2007-01-01

The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals, estimates of the probable maximum flood, extrapolation of the 500-year flood when an equation for estimating it is not available, and weighting techniques to improve flood-frequency estimates for gaging stations and ungaged sites on gaged streams. This report describes the regionalization techniques used to develop the equations in NSS and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The report also includes a users manual and a summary of equations available for estimating basin lagtime, which is needed by the program to generate flood hydrographs. The NSS software and accompanying database, and the documentation for the regression equations included in NSS, are available on the Web at http://water.usgs.gov/software/.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Arizona, developed with unregulated and rural peak-flow data through water year 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paretti, Nicholas V.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Turney, Lovina A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

The regional regression equations were integrated into the U.S. Geological Survey’s StreamStats program. The StreamStats program is a national map-based web application that allows the public to easily access published flood frequency and basin characteristic statistics. The interactive web application allows a user to select a point within a watershed (gaged or ungaged) and retrieve flood-frequency estimates derived from the current regional regression equations and geographic information system data within the selected basin. StreamStats provides users with an efficient and accurate means for retrieving the most up to date flood frequency and basin characteristic data. StreamStats is intended to provide consistent statistics, minimize user error, and reduce the need for large datasets and costly geographic information system software.

Cahokia's emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, Samuel E.; Gruley, Kristine E.; Massie, Ashtin; Fike, David A.; Schroeder, Sissel; Williams, John W.

2015-05-01

Here we establish the timing of major flood events of the central Mississippi River over the last 1,800 y, using floodwater sediments deposited in two floodplain lakes. Shifts in the frequency of high-magnitude floods are mediated by moisture availability over midcontinental North America and correspond to the emergence and decline of Cahokia-a major late prehistoric settlement in the Mississippi River floodplain. The absence of large floods from A.D. 600 to A.D. 1200 facilitated agricultural intensification, population growth, and settlement expansion across the floodplain that are associated with the emergence of Cahokia as a regional center around A.D. 1050. The return of large floods after A.D. 1200, driven by waning midcontinental aridity, marks the onset of sociopolitical reorganization and depopulation that culminate in the abandonment of Cahokia and the surrounding region by A.D. 1350. Shifts in the frequency and magnitude of flooding may be an underappreciated but critical factor in the formation and dissolution of social complexity in early agricultural societies.

Flood Inundation Mapping and Emergency Operations during Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, N. Z.; Cotter, J.; Gao, S.; Bedient, P. B.; Yung, A.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey struck the Gulf Coast as Category 4 on August 25, 2017 with devastating and life-threatening floods in Texas. Harris County received up to 49 inches of rainfall over a 5-day period and experienced flooding level and impacts beyond any previous storm in Houston's history. The depth-duration-frequency analysis reveals that the areal average rainfall for Brays Bayou surpasses the 500-year rainfall in both 24 and 48 hours. To cope with this unprecedented event, the researchers at the University of Texas at Arlington and Rice University worked closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the National Weather Service (NWS), the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), Walter P. Moore and Associates, Inc. and Halff Associates, to conduct a series of meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to delineate flood inundation maps. Up to eight major watersheds in Harris County were delineated based the available QPE data from WGRFC. The inundation map over Brays Bayou with their impacts from Hurricane Harvey was delineated in comparison with those of 100-, 500-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) design storms. This presentation will provide insights for both engineers and planners to re-evaluate the existing flood infrastructure and policy, which will help build Houston stronger for future extreme storms. The collaborative effort among the federal, academic, and private entities clearly demonstrates an effective approach for flood inundation mapping initiatives for the nation.

Real time high frequency monitoring of water quality in river streams using a UV-visible spectrometer: interest, limits and consequences for monitoring strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faucheux, Mikaël; Fovet, Ophélie; Gruau, Gérard; Jaffrézic, Anne; Petitjean, Patrice; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal; Ruiz, Laurent

2013-04-01

Stream water chemistry is highly variable in space and time, therefore high frequency water quality measurement methods are likely to lead to conceptual advances in the hydrological sciences. Sub-daily data on water quality improve the characterization of pollutant sources and pathways during flood events as well as during long-term periods [1]. However, real time, high frequency monitoring devices needs to be properly calibrated and validated in real streams. This study analyses data from in situ monitoring of a stream water quality. During two hydrological years (2010-11, 2011-12), a submersible UV-visible spectrometer (Scan Spectrolyser) was used for surface water quality measurement at the outlet of a headwater catchment located at Kervidy-Naizin, Western France (AgrHys long-term hydrological observatory, http://www.inra.fr/ore_agrhys/). The spectrometer is reagentless and equipped with an auto-cleaning system. It allows real time, in situ and high frequency (20 min) measurements and uses a multiwavelengt spectral (200-750 nm) for simultaneous measurement of nitrate, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total suspended solids (TSS). A global calibration based on a PLS (Partial Least Squares) regression is provided by the manufacturer as default configuration of the UV-visible spectrometer. We carried out a local calibration of the spectrometer based on nitrates and DOC concentrations analysed in the laboratory from daily manual sampling and sub-daily automatic sampling of flood events. TSS results are compared with 15 min turbidity records from a continuous turdidimeter (Ponsel). The results show a good correlation between laboratory data and spectrometer data both during basis flows periods and flood events. However, the local calibration gives better results than the global one. Nutrient fluxes estimates based on high and different low frequency time series (daily to monthly) are compared to discuss the implication for environmental monitoring strategies. Such monitoring methods can therefore be interesting for designing monitoring strategy of environmental observatory and provide dense time series likely to highlight patterns or trends using appropriate approaches such as spectral analysis [2]. 1. Wade, A.J. et al., HESS Discuss., 2012. 9(5), p.6458- 6506. 2. Aubert, A. et al., submitted to EGU 2013-4745 vol. 15.

Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C

USGS Publications Warehouse

England, John F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Faber, Beth A.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Thomas, Wilbert O.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason, Robert R.

2018-03-29

Accurate estimates of flood frequency and magnitude are a key component of any effective nationwide flood risk management and flood damage abatement program. In addition to accuracy, methods for estimating flood risk must be uniformly and consistently applied because management of the Nation’s water and related land resources is a collaborative effort involving multiple actors including most levels of government and the private sector.Flood frequency guidelines have been published in the United States since 1967, and have undergone periodic revisions. In 1967, the U.S. Water Resources Council presented a coherent approach to flood frequency with Bulletin 15, “A Uniform Technique for Determining Flood Flow Frequencies.” The method it recommended involved fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution to annual peak flow data by the method of moments.The first extension and update of Bulletin 15 was published in 1976 as Bulletin 17, “Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency” (Guidelines). It extended the Bulletin 15 procedures by introducing methods for dealing with outliers, historical flood information, and regional skew. Bulletin 17A was published the following year to clarify the computation of weighted skew. The next revision of the Bulletin, the Bulletin 17B, provided a host of improvements and new techniques designed to address situations that often arise in practice, including better methods for estimating and using regional skew, weighting station and regional skew, detection of outliers, and use of the conditional probability adjustment.The current version of these Guidelines are presented in this document, denoted Bulletin 17C. It incorporates changes motivated by four of the items listed as “Future Work” in Bulletin 17B and 30 years of post-17B research on flood processes and statistical methods. The updates include: adoption of a generalized representation of flood data that allows for interval and censored data types; a new method, called the Expected Moments Algorithm, which extends the method of moments so that it can accommodate interval data; a generalized approach to identification of low outliers in flood data; and an improved method for computing confidence intervals.Federal agencies are requested to use these Guidelines in all planning activities involving water and related land resources. State, local, and private organizations are encouraged to use these Guidelines to assure uniformity in the flood frequency estimates that all agencies concerned with flood risk should use for Federal planning decisions.This revision is adopted with the knowledge and understanding that review of these procedures will be ongoing. Updated methods will be adopted when warranted by experience and by examination and testing of new techniques.

Quantifying water requirements of riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia: Implications for the management of environmental flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doody, Tanya M.; Colloff, Matthew J.; Davies, Micah; Koul, Vijay; Benyon, Richard G.; Nagler, Pamela L.

2015-01-01

Water resource development and drought have altered river flow regimes, increasing average flood return intervals across floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, causing health declines in riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) forests and woodlands. Environmental flow allocations helped to alleviate water stress during the recent Millennium Drought (1997–2010), however, quantification of the flood frequency required to support healthy E. camaldulensis communities is still needed. We quantified water requirements of E. camaldulensis for two years across a flood gradient (trees inundated at frequencies of 1:2, 1:5 and 1:10 years) at Yanga National Park, New South Wales to help inform management decision-making and design of environmental flows. Sap flow, evaporative losses and soil moisture measurements were used to determine transpiration, evapotranspiration and plant-available soil water before and after flooding. A formula was developed using plant-available soil water post-flooding and average annual rainfall, to estimate maintenance time of soil water reserves in each flood frequency zone. Results indicated that soil water reserves could sustain 1:2 and 1:5 trees for 15 months and six years, respectively. Trees regulated their transpiration rates, allowing them to persist within their flood frequency zone, and showed reduction in active sapwood area and transpiration rates when flood frequencies exceeded 1:2 years. A leaf area index of 0.5 was identified as a potential threshold indicator of severe drought stress. Our results suggest environmental water managers may have greater flexibility to adaptively manage floodplains in order to sustain E. camaldulensis forests and woodlands than has been appreciated hitherto.

Preliminary flood-frequency relations for small streams in Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irza, T.J.

1966-01-01

Preliminary flood-frequency relations have been defined for small streams in Kansas for floods having recurrence intervals not greater than 10 years. The defined relations will be useful for the design of culverts and other hydraulic structures. The relations are expressed in terms of basin characteristics.Peakflow records at 95 sites in Kansas for an 8-year period provided the basic data. The records were analyzed with respect to 20 basin characteristics by multiple-regression techniques. The resulting formulas relate flood magnitude and frequency to size of contributing drainage area, an index of stream-bed slope, and the average number of days per year when rainfall exceeded 1.0 inch. The other 17 factors had no statistical significance.To illustrate a typical application of the flood-frequency relation, a step-bystep method is presented for computing a frequency curve for Rock Creek near Meriden, Kans. The frequency curve shows that a peak discharge of 3,620 cfs (cubic feet per second) can be expected once every 10 years on the average, and that the 67 percent confidence interval ranges from 1,820 cfs to 7,230 cfs. The large range results from the fact that only 8 years of record have been collected and emphasizes the need for collecting records for a longer period.

Evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban watersheds in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.

2014-01-01

Flooding in urban areas routinely causes severe damage to property and often results in loss of life. To investigate the effect of urbanization on the magnitude and frequency of flood peaks, a flood frequency analysis was carried out using data from urbanized streamgaging stations in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona. Flood peaks at each station were predicted using the log-Pearson Type III distribution, fitted using the expected moments algorithm and the multiple Grubbs-Beck low outlier test. The station estimates were then compared to flood peaks estimated by rural-regression equations for Arizona, and to flood peaks adjusted for urbanization using a previously developed procedure for adjusting U.S. Geological Survey rural regression peak discharges in an urban setting. Only smaller, more common flood peaks at the 50-, 20-, 10-, and 4-percent annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) demonstrate any increase in magnitude as a result of urbanization; the 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP flood estimates are predicted without bias by the rural-regression equations. Percent imperviousness was determined not to account for the difference in estimated flood peaks between stations, either when adjusting the rural-regression equations or when deriving urban-regression equations to predict flood peaks directly from basin characteristics. Comparison with urban adjustment equations indicates that flood peaks are systematically overestimated if the rural-regression-estimated flood peaks are adjusted upward to account for urbanization. At nearly every streamgaging station in the analysis, adjusted rural-regression estimates were greater than the estimates derived using station data. One likely reason for the lack of increase in flood peaks with urbanization is the presence of significant stormwater retention and detention structures within the watershed used in the study.

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharge and Maximum Observed Peak Discharge in New Mexico and Surrounding Areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, Scott D.

2008-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable design of bridges, culverts, and open-channel hydraulic analysis, and for flood-hazard mapping in New Mexico and surrounding areas. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Mexico Department of Transportation, updated estimates of peak-discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and updated regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites by use of data collected through 2004 for 293 gaging stations on unregulated streams that have 10 or more years of record. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 140 of the 293 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge by having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each of the nine regions, logarithms of the maximum peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics by using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then were applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 38 to 93 percent (mean value is 62, and median value is 59) for the 100-year flood. The 1996 investigation standard error of prediction for the flood regions ranged from 41 to 96 percent (mean value is 67, and median value is 68) for the 100-year flood that was analyzed by using generalized least-squares regression analysis. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are more reliable than those in the 1996 report because of the increased length of record and improved geographic information system (GIS) method to determine basin and climatic characteristics. Flood-frequency estimates can be made for ungaged sites upstream or downstream from gaging stations by using a method that transfers flood-frequency data at the gaging station to the ungaged site by using a drainage-area ratio adjustment equation. The peak discharge for a given recurrence interval at the gaging station, drainage-area ratio, and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region is used to transfer the peak discharge for the recurrence interval to the ungaged site. Maximum observed peak discharge as related to drainage area was determined for New Mexico. Extreme events are commonly used in the design and appraisal of bridge crossings and other structures. Bridge-scour evaluations are commonly made by using the 500-year peak discharge for these appraisals. Peak-discharge data collected at 293 gaging stations and 367 miscellaneous sites were used to develop a maximum peak-discharge relation as an alternative method of estimating peak discharge of an extreme event such as a maximum probable flood.

Monitoring the effects of floods on submerged macrophytes in a large river.

PubMed

Ibáñez, Carles; Caiola, Nuno; Rovira, Albert; Real, Montserrat

2012-12-01

The lower Ebro River (Catalonia, Spain) has recently undergone a regime shift from a phytoplankton to a macrophyte-dominated system. Macrophytes started to spread at the end of the 1990s and since 2002 artificial floods (flushing flows) of short duration (1-2 days) are released from the Riba-roja dam once or twice a year in order to reduce macrophyte density. The aim of this study was to analyse the spatiotemporal trends of the submerged macrophytes in two stretches of the lower Ebro River using high-resolution hydroacoustic methods, in order to elucidate the effects of artificial floods and natural floods on its distribution and abundance. Results showed that the mean cover in the two studied stretches (Móra and Ginestar) was not reduced after a flushing flow (from 36.59% to 55.85% in Móra, and from 21.18% to 21.05% in Ginestar), but it was greatly reduced after the natural flood (down to 9.79% in Móra and 2.04% in Ginestar); surprisingly the cover increased in Móra after the artificial flood. In order to increase the efficiency of floods in controlling macrophyte spreading, the magnitude and frequency of them should largely increase, as well as the suspended sediment load, approaching as much as possible to the original flood pattern before dam construction. Hydroacoustic methods combined with geostatistics and interpolation in GIS can accurately monitor spatiotemporal trends of submerged macrophytes in large rivers. This is the first article to apply this monitoring system to submerged macrophytes in rivers. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, B; Kummu, M.; Dettinger, Mike; Sperna Weiland, F.C; Winsemius, H.C

2014-01-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.

Strong influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

PubMed Central

Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Dettinger, Michael D.; Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Winsemius, Hessel C.

2014-01-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions. PMID:25331867

Bivariate at-site frequency analysis of simulated flood peak-volume data using copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Viglione, Alberto; Szolgay, Ján.; Blöschl, Günter; Bacigál, Tomáå.¡

2010-05-01

In frequency analysis of joint hydro-climatological extremes (flood peaks and volumes, low flows and durations, etc.), usually, bivariate distribution functions are fitted to the observed data in order to estimate the probability of their occurrence. Bivariate models, however, have a number of limitations; therefore, in the recent past, dependence models based on copulas have gained increased attention to represent the joint probabilities of hydrological characteristics. Regardless of whether standard or copula based bivariate frequency analysis is carried out, one is generally interested in the extremes corresponding to low probabilities of the fitted joint cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). However, usually there is not enough flood data in the right tail of the empirical CDFs to derive reliable statistical inferences on the behaviour of the extremes. Therefore, different techniques are used to extend the amount of information for the statistical inference, i.e., temporal extension methods that allow for making use of historical data or spatial extension methods such as regional approaches. In this study, a different approach was adopted which uses simulated flood data by rainfall-runoff modelling, to increase the amount of data in the right tail of the CDFs. In order to generate artificial runoff data (i.e. to simulate flood records of lengths of approximately 106 years), a two-step procedure was used. (i) First, the stochastic rainfall generator proposed by Sivapalan et al. (2005) was modified for our purpose. This model is based on the assumption of discrete rainfall events whose arrival times, durations, mean rainfall intensity and the within-storm intensity patterns are all random, and can be described by specified distributions. The mean storm rainfall intensity is disaggregated further to hourly intensity patterns. (ii) Secondly, the simulated rainfall data entered a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model that consisted of a snow routine, a soil moisture routine and a flow routing routine (Parajka et al., 2007). The applicability of the proposed method was demonstrated on selected sites in Slovakia and Austria. The pairs of simulated flood volumes and flood peaks were analysed in terms of their dependence structure and different families of copulas (Archimedean, extreme value, Gumbel-Hougaard, etc.) were fitted to the observed and simulated data. The question to what extent measured data can be used to find the right copula was discussed. The study is supported by the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the Austrian-Slovak Co-operation in Science and Education "Aktion". Parajka, J., Merz, R., Blöschl, G., 2007: Uncertainty and multiple objective calibration in regional water balance modeling - Case study in 320 Austrian catchments. Hydrological Processes, 21, 435-446. Sivapalan, M., Blöschl, G., Merz, R., Gutknecht, D., 2005: Linking flood frequency to long-term water balance: incorporating effects of seasonality. Water Resources Research, 41, W06012, doi:10.1029/2004WR003439.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beckman, Emil W.

1976-01-01

Observed maximum flood peaks at 303 gaging stations with 13 or more years of record and significant peaks at 57 short-term stations and 31 miscellaneous sites are useful in designing flood-control works for maximum safety from flood damage. Comparison is made with maximum observed floods in the United States.

Extent and frequency of floods on Delaware River in vicinity of Belvidere, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farlekas, George M.

1966-01-01

A stream overflowing its banks is a natural phenomenon. This natural phenomenon of flooding has occurred on the Delaware River in the past and will occur in the future. T' o resulting inundation of large areas can cause property damage, business losses and possible loss of life, and may result in emergency costs for protection, rescue, and salvage work. For optimum development of the river valley consistent with the flood risk, an evaluation of flood conditions is necessary. Basic data and the interpretation of the data on the regimen of the streams, particularly the magnitude of floods to be expected, the frequency of their occurrence, and the areas inundated, are essential for planning and development of flood-prone areas.This report presents information relative to the extent, depth, and frequency of floods on the Delaware River and its tributaries in the vicinity of Belvidere, N.J. Flooding on the tributaries detailed in the report pertains only to the effect of backwater from the Delaware River. Data are presented for several past floods with emphasis given to the floods of August 19, 1955 and May 24, 1942. In addition, information is given for a hypothetical flood based on the flood of August 19, 1955 modified by completed (since 1955) and planned flood-control works.By use of relations presented in this report the extent, depth, and frequency of flooding can be estimated for any site along the reach of the Delaware River under study. Flood data and the evaluation of the data are presented so that local and regional agencies, organizations, and individuals may have a technical basis for making decisions on the use of flood-prone areas. The Delaware River Basin Commission and the U.S. Geological Survey regard this program of flood-plain inundation studies as a positive step toward flood-damage prevention. Flood-plain inundation studies, when followed by appropriate land-use regulations, are a valuable and economical supplement to physical works for flood control, such as dams and levees. Both physical works and flood-plain regulations are included in the comprehensive plans for development of the Delaware River basin.Recommendations for land use, or suggestions for limitations of land use, are not made herein. Other reports on recommended general use and regulation of land in flood-prone areas are available (Dola, 1961; White, 1961; American Society of Civil Engineers Task Force on Flood Plain Regulations, 1962; and Goddard, 1963). The primary responsibility for planning for the optimum land use in the flood plain and the implementation of flood-plain zoning or other regulations to achieve such optimum use rest with the state and local interests. The preparation of this report was undertaken after consultation with representatives of the Lehigh-Northampton Counties, Pennsylvania, Joint Planning Commission and the Warren County, New Jersey, Regional Planning Board and after both had demonstrated their need for flood-plain information and their willingness to consider flood-plain regulations.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of 1-, 3-, 7-, 15-, and 30-day flood-duration flows in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression equations, which allow predictions of n-day flood-duration flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged sites, were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-duration flow frequency estimates at 56 streamgaging stations within a single, relatively uniform physiographic region in the central part of Arizona, between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range Province, called the Transition Zone. Drainage area explained most of the variation in the n-day flood-duration annual exceedance probabilities, but mean annual precipitation and mean elevation were also significant variables in the regression models. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations varies from 28 to 53 percent and generally decreases with increasing n-day duration. Outside the Transition Zone there are insufficient streamgaging stations to develop regression equations, but flood-duration flow frequency estimates are presented at select streamgaging stations.

Nationwide summary of US Geological Survey regional regression equations for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites, 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jennings, M.E.; Thomas, W.O.; Riggs, H.C.

1994-01-01

For many years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been involved in the development of regional regression equations for estimating flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. These regression equations are used to transfer flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally these equations have been developed on a statewide or metropolitan area basis as part of cooperative study programs with specific State Departments of Transportation or specific cities. The USGS, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, has compiled all the current (as of September 1993) statewide and metropolitan area regression equations into a micro-computer program titled the National Flood Frequency Program.This program includes regression equations for estimating flood-peak discharges and techniques for estimating a typical flood hydrograph for a given recurrence interval peak discharge for unregulated rural and urban watersheds. These techniques should be useful to engineers and hydrologists for planning and design applications. This report summarizes the statewide regression equations for rural watersheds in each State, summarizes the applicable metropolitan area or statewide regression equations for urban watersheds, describes the National Flood Frequency Program for making these computations, and provides much of the reference information on the extrapolation variables needed to run the program.

Long-term dynamics emerging in floodplains and deltas from the interactions between hydrology and society in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Yan, Kun; Brandimarte, Luigia; Blöschl, Günter

2014-05-01

Economic losses and fatalities associated to flood events have increased dramatically over the past decades. This situation might worsen in the near future because of rapid urbanization of many floodplains and deltas, along with enhancement of flood water levels as a result of human interventions, climate variability or sea level rise. To explore future dynamics, we developed a novel approach, which takes into account the dynamic nature of flood risk by an explicit treatment of the interactions and feedbacks between the hydrological and social components of flood risk (i.e. probability of flooding, and potential adverse consequences). In particular, we developed a socio-hydrological model that allows considering how the frequency and magnitude of flooding shapes the evolution of societies, while, at the same time, dynamic societies shape the frequency and magnitude of flooding. We then use this model to simulate long-term dynamics of different types of societies under hydrological change, e.g. increasing flood frequency. Based on the study of long-term dynamics of different floodplains and deltas around the world (e.g. Netherlands, Bangladesh), we identify two main typologies of flood-shaped societies: i) techno-societies, which "fight floods", and typically deal with risk by building and strengthening flood protection structures, such as levees or dikes; and ii) green-societies, which "lives with floods", and mainly cope with risk via adaptation measures, such as resettling out of flood prone areas. The outcomes of this study are relevant for the management of deltas and floodplains as they allow a comparison of long-term dynamics between diverse types of societies in terms of robustness to hydrological change.

A generalized Grubbs-Beck test statistic for detecting multiple potentially influential low outliers in flood series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, T.A.; England, J.F.; Berenbrock, C.E.; Mason, R.R.; Stedinger, J.R.; Lamontagne, J.R.

2013-01-01

he Grubbs-Beck test is recommended by the federal guidelines for detection of low outliers in flood flow frequency computation in the United States. This paper presents a generalization of the Grubbs-Beck test for normal data (similar to the Rosner (1983) test; see also Spencer and McCuen (1996)) that can provide a consistent standard for identifying multiple potentially influential low flows. In cases where low outliers have been identified, they can be represented as “less-than” values, and a frequency distribution can be developed using censored-data statistical techniques, such as the Expected Moments Algorithm. This approach can improve the fit of the right-hand tail of a frequency distribution and provide protection from lack-of-fit due to unimportant but potentially influential low flows (PILFs) in a flood series, thus making the flood frequency analysis procedure more robust.

A generalized Grubbs-Beck test statistic for detecting multiple potentially influential low outliers in flood series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, T. A.; England, J. F.; Berenbrock, C. E.; Mason, R. R.; Stedinger, J. R.; Lamontagne, J. R.

2013-08-01

The Grubbs-Beck test is recommended by the federal guidelines for detection of low outliers in flood flow frequency computation in the United States. This paper presents a generalization of the Grubbs-Beck test for normal data (similar to the Rosner (1983) test; see also Spencer and McCuen (1996)) that can provide a consistent standard for identifying multiple potentially influential low flows. In cases where low outliers have been identified, they can be represented as "less-than" values, and a frequency distribution can be developed using censored-data statistical techniques, such as the Expected Moments Algorithm. This approach can improve the fit of the right-hand tail of a frequency distribution and provide protection from lack-of-fit due to unimportant but potentially influential low flows (PILFs) in a flood series, thus making the flood frequency analysis procedure more robust.

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in west-central Florida, 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammett, Kathleen M.; DelCharco, Michael J.

2005-01-01

Flood discharges were estimated for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years for 94 streamflow stations in west-central Florida. Most of the stations are located within the 10,000 square-mile, 16-county area that forms the Southwest Florida Water Management District. All stations had at least 10 years of homogeneous record, and none have flood discharges that are significantly affected by regulation or urbanization. Guidelines established by the U.S. Water Resources Council in Bulletin 17B were used to estimate flood discharges from gaging station records. Multiple linear regression analysis was then used to mathematically relate estimates of flood discharge for selected recurrence intervals to explanatory basin characteristics. Contributing drainage area, channel slope, and the percent of total drainage area covered by lakes (percent lake area) were the basin characteristics that provided the best regression estimates. The study area was subdivided into four geographic regions to further refine the regression equations. Region 1 at the northern end of the study area includes large rivers that are characteristic of the rolling karst terrain of northern Florida. Only a small part of Region 1 lies within the boundaries of the Southwest Florida Water Management District. Contributing drainage area and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics in Region 1; the prediction error of the regression equations varied with the recurrence interval and ranged from 57 to 69 percent. In the three other regions of the study area, contributing drainage area, channel slope, and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics, and are the three characteristics that can be used to best estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on most streams within the Southwest Florida Water Management District. The Withlacoochee River Basin dominates Region 2; the prediction error of the regression models in the region ranged from 65 to 68 percent. The basins that drain into the northern part of Tampa Bay and the upper reaches of the Peace River Basin are in Region 3, which had prediction errors ranging from 54 to 74 percent. Region 4, at the southern end of the study area, had prediction errors that ranged from 40 to 56 percent. Estimates of flood discharge become more accurate as longer periods of record are used for analyses; results of this study should be used in lieu of results from earlier U.S. Geological Survey studies of flood magnitude and frequency in west-central Florida. A comparison of current results with earlier studies indicates that use of a longer period of record with additional high-water events produces substantially higher flood-discharge estimates for many gaging stations. Another comparison indicates that the use of a computed, generalized skew in a previous study in 1979 tended to overestimate flood discharges.

The ELSA - Flood - Stack: A reconstruction from the laminated sediments of Eifel Maar structures during the last 60 000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunck, Heiko; Sirocko, Frank; Albert, Johannes

2016-04-01

Lake sediments are excellent climate archives and can be used for reconstructions of past precipitation and flood events. However, until now, there is no continous flood record for the entire last 60 000 years for Central Europe. This study reconstructs the history of the main flood events in central Europe from event layers in sediment cores from Holocene Eifel maar lakes and Pleistocene dry maar structures. The cores were drilled in the Eifel region of western Germany. All maars have an inflow by a local stream and the largest flood events and associated suspension injections are nicely visible in the sediment. The specific sedimentation conditions explain the unique possibility to detect all 18 Greenland Interstadials in the total carbon concentration of the analysed maars. The allocation of the core material to all Greenland Interstadials and Stadials enables the exact climatic interpretation of the flood frequency. The stratigraphical concept leads to a classification of Landscape Evolution Zones in the Eifel region, which reconstruct the vegetation and the climate change (Sirocko et al., 2015). This classification is used to discuss the flood event succession concerning environmental changes. To study the past flood events in detail, 10 cm long thin sections were sedimentological and geochemical analysed to distinguish flood layers from turbidites and slumps. Turbidites have a continuous grain size gradation; the grains size profile of flood events is in contrast characterized by several grain size maxima over the entire layer thickness. A flood event over several days shows numerous peaks of intense discharge, which lead to a discontinuous grain size gradient. As a consequence, 233 flood layers over 7.5 mm thickness were detected. The main flood stages are from: 0 - 4000, 11 500 - 17 500, 23 000 - 24 000, 29 000 - 35 000 and 44 000 - 44 500 b2k (Brunck et al., 2015). Our time-series from the Eifel represents the first highly-resolved chronology for flood events from 60 000 years until present times and indicates variable periodicities of flood activity linked to predominant climatic and anthropogenic development. It turns out that low vegetation coverage related to Greenland Stadial phases or anthropogenic impact is the main cause for the development of flood layers in maar sediments, while precipitation plays only a secondary role. References Brunck, H., Albert, J., Sirocko, F., 2015 (in press). The ELSA - Flood - Stack: A reconstruction from the laminated sediments of Eifel Maar structures during the last 60 000 years. Global and Planetary Change, Elsevier. Sirocko, F., Knapp, H., Dreher, F., Förster, M., Albert, J., Brunck, H., Veres, D., Dietrich, S., Zech, M., Hambach, U., Röhner, M., Rudert, S., Schwibus, K., Adams, C., Sigl, P., 2015 (in press). The ELSA-Vegetation-Stack: Reconstruction of Landscape Evolution Zones (LEZ) from laminated Eifel maar sediments of the last 60 000 years. Global and Planetary Change, Elsevier.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated to the variability of River Ammer floods: evidence from observed and proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, N.; Czymzik, M.; Ionita, M.; Lohmann, G.; Brauer, A.

2015-09-01

The relationship between the frequency of River Ammer floods (southern Germany) and atmospheric circulation variability is investigated based on observational Ammer discharge data back to 1926 and a flood layer time series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee for the pre-instrumental period back to 1766. A composite analysis reveals that, at synoptic time scales, observed River Ammer floods are associated with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean towards the Ammer region, a pronounced trough over Western Europe as well as enhanced potential vorticity at upper levels. We argue that this synoptic scale configuration can trigger heavy precipitation and floods in the Ammer region. Interannual to multidecadal increases in flood frequency as recorded in the instrumental discharge record are associated to a wave-train pattern extending from the North Atlantic to western Asia with a prominent negative center over western Europe. A similar atmospheric circulation pattern is associated to increases in flood layer frequency in the Lake Ammersee sediment record during the pre-instrumental period. We argue that the complete flood layer time-series from Lake Ammersee sediments covering the last 5500 years, contains information about atmospheric circulation variability on inter-annual to millennial time-scales.

The August 1975 Flood over Central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Long; Smith, James; Liu, Maofeng; Baeck, MaryLynn

2016-04-01

The August 1975 flood in Central China was one of the most destructive floods in history, resulting in 26 000 fatalities, leaving about 10 million people with insufficient shelter, and producing long-lasting famine and disease. Extreme rainfall responsible for this flood event was associated with typhoon Nina during 5-7 August 1975. Despite the prominence of the August 1975 flood, analyses of the storms producing the flood and the resulting flood are sparse. Even fewer attempts were made from the perspective of numerical simulations. We examine details of extreme rainfall for the August 1975 flood based on downscaling simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by 20th Century Reanalysis fields. We further placed key hydrometeorological features for the flood event in a climatological context through the analyses of the 20th Century Reanalysis fields. Results indicate interrelated roles of multiple mesoscale ingredients for deep, moist convection in producing extreme rainfall for the August 1975 flood, superimposed over an anomalous synoptic environment. Attribution analyses on the source of water vapor for this flood event will be conducted based on a Lagrangian parcel tracking algorithm LAGRANTO. Analytical framework developed in this study aims to explore utilization of hydrometeorological approach in flood-control engineering designs by providing details on key elements of flood-producing storms.

Wall pressure measurements of flooding in vertical countercurrent annular air–water flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Choutapalli, I., Vierow, K.

2010-01-01

An experimental study of flooding in countercurrent air-water annular flow in a large diameter vertical tube using wall pressure measurements is described in this paper. Axial pressure profiles along the length of the test section were measured up to and after flooding using fast response pressure transducers for three representative liquid flow rates representing a wide range of liquid Reynolds numbers (ReL = 4Γ/μ; Γ is the liquid mass flow rate per unit perimeter; μ is the dynamic viscosity) from 3341 to 19,048. The results show that flooding in large diameter tubes cannot be initiated near the air outlet andmore » is only initiated near the air inlet. Fourier analysis of the wall pressure measurements shows that up to the point of flooding, there is no dominant wave frequency but rather a band of frequencies encompassing both the low frequency and the broad band that are responsible for flooding. The data indicates that flooding in large diameter vertical tubes may be caused by the constructive superposition of a plurality of waves rather than the action of a single large-amplitude wave.« less

An Exploration of the Importance of Flood Heterogeneity for Regionalization in Arizona using the Expected Moments Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamora-Reyes, D.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Paretti, N. V.

2012-12-01

Bulletin 17B (B17B) has prevailed for 30 years as the standard manual for determining flood frequency in the United States. Recently proposed updates to B17B include revising the issue of flood heterogeneity, and improving flood estimates by using the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) which can better address low outliers and accommodate information on historical peaks. Incorporating information on mixed populations, such as flood-causing mechanisms, into flood estimates for regions that have noticeable flood heterogeneity can be statistically challenging when systematic flood records are short. The problem magnifies when the population sample size is reduced by decomposing the record, especially if multiple flood mechanisms are involved. In B17B, the guidelines for dealing with mixed populations focus primarily on how to rule out any need to perform a mixed-population analysis. However, in some regions mixed flood populations are critically important determinants of regional flood frequency variations and should be explored from this perspective. Arizona is an area with a heterogeneous mixture of flood processes due to: warm season convective thunderstorms, cool season synoptic-scale storms, and tropical cyclone-enhanced convective activity occurring in the late summer or early fall. USGS station data throughout Arizona was compiled into a database and each flood peak (annual and partial duration series) was classified according to its meteorological cause. Using these data, we have explored the role of flood heterogeneity in Arizona flood estimates through composite flood frequency analysis based on mixed flood populations using EMA. First, for selected stations, the three flood-causing populations were separated out from the systematic annual flood series record and analyzed individually. Second, to create composite probability curves, the individual curves for each of the three populations were generated and combined using Crippen's (1978) composite probability equations for sites that have two or more independent flood populations. Finally, the individual probability curves generated for each of the three flood-causing populations were compared with both the site's composite probability curve and the standard B17B curve to explore the influence of heterogeneity using the 100-year and 200-year flood estimates as a basis of comparison. Results showed that sites located in southern Arizona and along the abrupt elevation transition zone of the Mogollon Rim exhibit a better fit to the systematic data using their composite probability curves than the curves derived from standard B17B analysis. Synoptic storm floods and tropical cyclone-enhanced floods had the greatest influence on 100-year and 200-year flood estimates. This was especially true in southern Arizona, even though summer convective floods are much more frequent and therefore dominate the composite curve. Using the EMA approach also influenced our results because all possible low outliers were censored by the built-in Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test, providing a better fit to the systematic data in the upper probabilities. In conclusion, flood heterogeneity can play an important role in regional flood frequency variations in Arizona and that understanding its influence is important when making projections about future flood variations.

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

2009-12-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the uncertainties of the final risk estimate will be helpful to decision makers to make better informed decisions and attributing this uncertainty to the input parameters helps to identify which parameters are most important when it comes to uncertainty in the final estimate and should therefore deserve additional attention in further research.

A holistic approach for large-scale derived flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Apel, Heiko; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Sergiy, Vorogushyn; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Spatial consistency, which has been usually disregarded because of the reported methodological difficulties, is increasingly demanded in regional flood hazard (and risk) assessments. This study aims at developing a holistic approach for deriving flood frequency at large scale consistently. A large scale two-component model has been established for simulating very long-term multisite synthetic meteorological fields and flood flow at many gauged and ungauged locations hence reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The model has been applied for the region of nearly a half million km2 including Germany and parts of nearby countries. The model performance has been multi-objectively examined with a focus on extreme. By this continuous simulation approach, flood quantiles for the studied region have been derived successfully and provide useful input for a comprehensive flood risk study.

Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

2013-12-01

In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example of five watersheds located in the South of France. References : O. CAYLA : Probability calculation of design floods abd inflows - SPEED. Waterpower 1995, San Francisco, California 1995 CFGB : Design flood determination by the gradex method. Bulletin du Comité Français des Grands Barrages News 96, 18th congress CIGB-ICOLD n2, nov:108, 1994. F. GARAVAGLIA et al. : Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns subsampling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 951-964, 2010. J. LAVABRE et al. : SHYREG : une méthode pour l'estimation régionale des débits de crue. application aux régions méditerranéennes françaises. Ingénierie EAT, 97-111, 2003. M. MARGOUM : Estimation des crues rares et extrêmes : le modèle AGREGEE. Conceptions et remières validations. PhD, Ecole des Mines de Paris, 1992. R. NAULET et al. : Flood frequency analysis on the Ardèche river using French documentary sources from the two last centuries. Journal of Hydrology, 313:58-78, 2005. E. PAQUET et al. : The SCHADEX method: A semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation, Journal of Hydrology, 495, 23-37, 2013.

Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web.

PubMed

Hearn, Paul P; Longenecker, Herbert E; Aguinaldo, John J; Rahav, Ami N

2013-01-01

Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS's newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders.

Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hearn,, Paul P.; Longenecker, Herbert E.; Aguinaldo, John J.; Rahav, Ami N.

2013-01-01

Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS’s newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders.

Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Maofeng

Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET events on the projected increase of TC frequency in the eastern North Atlantic, highlighting increased exposure of the northeastern United States and Western Europe to storm hazards. Retrospective seasonal forecast experiments demonstrate the skill of HiFLOR in predicting basinwide and regional ET frequency. This skill, however, is not seen in the seasonal prediction of ET rate. More work on the property of signal-to-noise ratio of ET rate is needed.

Main flood peaks in the medieval Carpathian Basin (1000-1500): Annual and decadal overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea

2013-04-01

The analysis of over 140 reported floods is mainly based on contemporary legal evidence (charters), partly on other types of contemporary documentary evidence. Majority of sources contains data on individual flood events (i.e. occurrence, seasonality, magnitude). Concerning main flood peaks, evidence on annual and multi-annual (decadal, multi-decadal) level is also available. Despite data increase in the 13th century, only in the 14th-15th centuries documentation is representative enough to draw further conclusions. Apart from secondary flood peaks (probably in the mid-13th century and the turn of the 13th-14th centuries), three main periods with high flood frequencies are detected: 1330s-1350s, 1390s-1430s, and the late 1480s-1490s (continuing in the early 16th century). The first major flood peak was primarily reported in the eastern Carpathian Basin (the Tisa catchment), and can be characterised by a number of high-intensity flood events (with 1342-1343 in centre). During the second major, prolonged flood peak of 1390s-1430s, and that of the third, late 15th century one the importance of floods occurred on the Danube and in the Danube catchment area has to be as well highlighted. Moreover, in the first half of the 15th century long-term hydrological problems (prolonged high water-level and high flood frequency problems) can be identified. In some cases high flood-frequency periods were accompanied by documented hydromorphological impacts and some impacts on society can be also detected. Results show good agreement with the decadal precipitation reconstruction based on speleothem investigations carried out in North-Hungary.

Assessing Flood Risk at Nuclear Power Plants with an Uncertain Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wigmosta, M. S.; Vail, L. W.

2011-12-01

In 2010 a tsunami severely damaged the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan. As a result, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission directed that a systematic and methodical review of Commission processes and regulations be performed to determine whether the agency should make additional improvements to its regulatory system and to make recommendations to the Commission. Two of the recommendations of the Task Force created to inform the Commission were: establish a logical, systematic, and coherent regulatory framework for adequate protection that appropriately balances defense-in-depth and risk considerations and that the NRC require licensees to reevaluate and upgrade as necessary the design-basis flooding protection of structures, systems, and components for each operating reactor. These recommendations came at the same time as technical discussions about updating approaches to evaluate flood hazard were underway. These discussions included: consideration of climate nonstationarity in flood assessments; transitioning from PMP/PMF assessments to probabilistic flood analyses to better align with risk-informed decision making; and systematic consideration of combined events in flood risk analysis. There is no scientific basis to assume that shifts in long-term mean precipitation and temperature (such as is commonly derived from climate models) relate to flood probability. Flood mechanisms are often more complex and reflect climate pattern anomalies more than mean annual shifts. Instead of discounting historical data due to climatic nonstationarity, it is important to better understand the climate patterns that have triggered floods in the past and to look to climate forecasts to understand the likely changes in the frequency of those historical climate patterns with climate change. It is equally important to have a better understanding of whether climate change will result in flood-generating climate systems heretofore unknown in the particular locale. This presentation will provide a roadmap to ensuring that the flood hazards of existing and future nuclear power plants are well defined.

Cahokia’s emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

PubMed Central

Munoz, Samuel E.; Gruley, Kristine E.; Massie, Ashtin; Fike, David A.; Schroeder, Sissel; Williams, John W.

2015-01-01

Here we establish the timing of major flood events of the central Mississippi River over the last 1,800 y, using floodwater sediments deposited in two floodplain lakes. Shifts in the frequency of high-magnitude floods are mediated by moisture availability over midcontinental North America and correspond to the emergence and decline of Cahokia—a major late prehistoric settlement in the Mississippi River floodplain. The absence of large floods from A.D. 600 to A.D. 1200 facilitated agricultural intensification, population growth, and settlement expansion across the floodplain that are associated with the emergence of Cahokia as a regional center around A.D. 1050. The return of large floods after A.D. 1200, driven by waning midcontinental aridity, marks the onset of sociopolitical reorganization and depopulation that culminate in the abandonment of Cahokia and the surrounding region by A.D. 1350. Shifts in the frequency and magnitude of flooding may be an underappreciated but critical factor in the formation and dissolution of social complexity in early agricultural societies. PMID:25941363

Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-01-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years. PMID:21845165

Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

PubMed

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-07-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Straub, Timothy D.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

2006-01-01

Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital maps of the 100-year and 500-year flood plains and the 100-year floodway for each tributary and the main stem of Blackberry Creek were compiled.

Peak-flow frequency estimates based on data through water year 2001 for selected streamflow-gaging stations in South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Steven K.; Driscoll, Daniel G.; Parrett, Charles

2008-01-01

Numerous users, including the South Dakota Department of Transportation, have continuing needs for peak-flow information for the design of highway infrastructure and many other purposes. This report documents results from a cooperative study between the South Dakota Department of Transportation and the U.S. Geological Survey to provide an update of peak-flow frequency estimates for South Dakota. Estimates of peak-flow magnitudes for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are reported for 272 streamflow-gaging stations, which include most gaging stations in South Dakota with 10 or more years of systematic peak-flow records through water year 2001. Recommended procedures described in Bulletin 17B were used as primary guidelines for developing peak-flow frequency estimates. The computer program PEAKFQ developed by the U.S. Geological Survey was used to run the frequency analyses. Flood frequencies for all stations were initially analyzed by using standard Bulletin 17B default procedures for fitting the log-Pearson III distribution. The resulting preliminary frequency curves were then plotted on a log-probability scale, and fits of the curves with systematic data were evaluated. In many cases, results of the default Bulletin 17B analyses were determined to be satisfactory. In other cases, however, the results could be improved by using various alternative procedures for frequency analysis. Alternative procedures for some stations included adjustments to skew coefficients or use of user-defined low-outlier criteria. Peak-flow records for many gaging stations are strongly influenced by low- or zero-flow values. This situation often results in a frequency curve that plots substantially above the systematic record data points at the upper end of the frequency curve. Adjustments to low-outlier criteria reduced the influence of very small peak flows and generally focused the analyses on the upper parts of the frequency curves (10- to 500-year recurrence intervals). The most common alternative procedures involved several different methods to extend systematic records, which was done primarily to address biases resulting from nonrepresentative climatic conditions during several specific periods of record and to reduce inconsistencies among multiple gaging stations along common stream channels with different periods of record. In some cases, records for proximal stations could be combined directly. In other cases, the two-station comparison procedure recommended in Bulletin 17B was used to adjust the mean and standard deviation of the logs of the systematic data for a target station on the basis of correlation with concurrent records from a nearby long-term index station. In some other cases, a 'mixed-station procedure' was used to adjust the log-distributional parameters for a target station, on the basis of correlation with one or more index stations, for the purpose of fitting the log-Pearson III distribution. Historical adjustment procedures were applied to peak-flow frequency analyses for 17 South Dakota gaging stations. A historical adjustment period extending back to 1881 (121 years) was used for 12 gaging stations in the James and Big Sioux River Basins, and various other adjustment periods were used for additional stations. Large peak flows that occurred in 1969 and 1997 accounted for 13 of the 17 historical adjustments. Other years for which historical peak flows were used include 1957, 1962, 1992, and 2001. A regional mixed-population analysis was developed to address complications associated with many high outliers for the Black Hills region. This analysis included definition of two populations of flood events. The population of flood events that composes the main body of peak flows for a given station is considered the 'ordinary-peaks population,' and the population of unusually large peak flows that plot substantially above the main body of peak flows on log-probability scale is co

Floods in the Raccoon River basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, Albert J.

1980-01-01

Evaluation of flood hazards, and the planning, design, and operation of various facilities on flood plains requires information on floods. This report provides information on flood stages and discharges, flood magnitude and frequency, bench mark data, and flood profiles for the Raccoon River and some of its tributaries. Ir covers the Raccoon River, the North Raccoon River to the northern boundary of Sac County and the lower reaches of the Middle and South Raccoon Rivers.

Response of plant productivity to experimental flooding in a stable and a submerging marsh

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2015-01-01

Recent models of tidal marsh evolution rely largely on the premise that plants are most productive at an optimal flooding regime that occurs when soil elevations are somewhere between mean sea level and mean high tide. Here, we use 4 years of manipulative “marsh organ” flooding experiments to test the generality of this conceptual framework and to examine how the optimal flooding frequency may change between years and locations. In our experiments, above and belowground growth of Schoenoplectus americanus was most rapid when flooded about 40% of the time in a rapidly submerging marsh and when flooded about 25% of the time in a historically stable marsh. Optimum flooding durations were nearly identical in each year of the experiment and did not differ for above and belowground growth. In contrast, above and belowground growth of Spartina patensdecreased monotonically with increased flooding in all years and at both sites, indicating no optimal flooding frequency or elevation relative to sea level. Growth patterns in both species suggest a wider tolerance to flooding, and greater biomass for a given flooding duration, in the rapidly deteriorating marsh.

Flood frequency estimates and documented and potential extreme peak discharges in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

2001-01-01

Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the dividing line.

Multi-Source Generation Mechanisms for Low Frequency Noise Induced by Flood Discharge and Energy Dissipation from a High Dam with a Ski-Jump Type Spillway

PubMed Central

Lian, Jijian; Zhang, Wenjiao; Ma, Bin; Liu, Dongming

2017-01-01

As excess water is discharged from a high dam, low frequency noise (air pulsation lower than 10 Hz, LFN) is generated and propagated in the surrounding areas, causing environmental hazards such as the vibration of windows and doors and the discomfort of local residents. To study the generation mechanisms and key influencing factors of LFN induced by flood discharge and energy dissipation from a high dam with a ski-jump type spillway, detailed prototype observations and analyses of LFN are carried out. The discharge flow field is simulated and analyzed using a gas-liquid turbulent flow model. The acoustic response characteristics of the air cavity, which is formed between the discharge nappe and dam body, are analyzed using an acoustic numerical model. The multi-sources generation mechanisms are first proposed basing on the prototype observation results, vortex sound model, turbulent flow model and acoustic numerical model. Two kinds of sources of LFN are studied. One comes from the energy dissipation of submerged jets in the plunge pool, the other comes from nappe-cavity coupled vibration. The results of the analyses reveal that the submerged jets in the plunge pool only contribute to an on-site LFN energy of 0–1.0 Hz, and the strong shear layers around the high-velocity submerged jets and wall jet development areas are the main acoustic source regions of LFN in the plunge pool. In addition, the nappe-cavity coupled vibration, which is induced when the discharge nappe vibrates with close frequency to the model frequency of the cavity, can induce on-site LFN energy with wider frequency spectrum energy within 0–4.0 Hz. By contrast, the contribution degrees to LFN energy from two acoustic sources are almost same, while the contribution degree from nappe-cavity coupled vibration is slightly higher. PMID:29189750

Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2011-01-01

California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p <= 0. 01) for all the three GCMs in the period 2051-2099. The frequency of flood events above selected historical thresholds also increases under projections from CNRM CM3 and NCAR PCM1 climate models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Regional flood frequency analysis in Triveneto (Italy): climate and scale controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persiano, Simone; Castellarin, Attilio; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

2016-04-01

The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national regionalization approaches. Our study focuses on the Triveneto region, a broad geographical area in North-eastern Italy consisting of the administrative regions of Trentino-Alto Adige, Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges that were collected up to the 80s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for ~80 catchments located in Triveneto. Our dataset includes the historical data mentioned above, together with more recent data obtained from Regional Services and annual maximum peak streamflows extracted from inflow series to artificial reservoirs and provided by dam managers. All ~80 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The main objectives of our study are: (1) to check whether climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2) to verify the possible presence of trends as well as abrupt changes in the intensity and frequency of flood extremes by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3) to assess the reliability and representativeness of the reference procedure for design flood estimation relative to flood data that were not included in the VA.PI. dataset (i.e. more recent data collected after the 80s and historical data provided by dam managers); (4) to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI).

Alternating flood and drought hazards in the Drava Plain, Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lóczy, Dénes; Dezsö, József; Gyenizse, Péter; Ortmann-Ajkai, Adrienne

2016-04-01

Our research project covers the assessment of archive data and monitoring present-day water availability in the floodplain of the Hungarian Drava River. Historically flood hazard has been prevalent in the area. Recently, however, flood and drought hazards occur with equal frequency. Potential floodwater storage is defined from the analyses of soil conditions (grain size, porosity, water conductivity etc.) and GIS-based volumetric estimations of storage capacities in oxbows (including communication with groundwater). With the remarkable rate of river channel incision (2.4 m per century) and predictable climate change trends (increased annual mean temperature and decreased summer precipitation), the growing frequency and intensification of drought hazard is expected. For the assessment of drought hazard the impacts of hydrometeorological events, groundwater table dynamics and capillary rise are modelled, the water demands of natural vegetation and agricultural crops are studied. The project is closely linked to the ongoing Old Drava Programme, a comprehensive government project, which envisions floodplain rehabilitation through major transformations in water governance and land use of the region, and has numerous implications for regional development. Authors are grateful for financial support from the Hungarian National Scientific Research Fund (OTKA, contacts nos K 104552 and K 108755) as well as from the Visegrad Fund (31210058). The contribution is dedicated to the 650th anniversary of the foundation of the University of Pécs, Hungary.

Techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural basins of South Carolina, 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Tasker, Gary D.

2002-01-01

Data from 167 streamflow-gaging stations in or near South Carolina with 10 or more years of record through September 30, 1999, were used to develop two methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in South Carolina for rural ungaged basins that are not significantly affected by regulation. Flood frequency estimates for 54 gaged sites in South Carolina were computed by fitting the water-year peak flows for each site to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation of flood-frequency estimates for gaged sites, new values for generalized skew coefficients were developed. Flood-frequency analyses also were made for gaging stations that drain basins from more than one physiographic province. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Transportation, updated these data from previous flood-frequency reports to aid officials who are active in floodplain management as well as those who design bridges, culverts, and levees, or other structures near streams where flooding is likely to occur. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations that can be used to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flows for rural ungaged basins in the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, upper Coastal Plain, and lower Coastal Plain physiographic provinces of South Carolina. The predictive equations are all functions of drainage area. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations ranged from -16 to 19 percent for the 2-year recurrence-interval flow in the upper Coastal Plain to -34 to 52 percent for the 500-year recurrence interval flow in the lower Coastal Plain. A region-of-influence method also was developed that interactively estimates recurrence- interval flows for rural ungaged basins in the Blue Ridge of South Carolina. The region-of-influence method uses regression techniques to develop a unique relation between flow and basin characteristics for an individual watershed. This, then, can be used to estimate flows at ungaged sites. Because the computations required for this method are somewhat complex, a computer application was developed that performs the computations and compares the predictive errors for this method. The computer application includes the option of using the region-of-influence method, or the generalized least squares regression equations from this report to compute estimated flows and errors of prediction specific to each ungaged site. From a comparison of predictive errors using the region-of-influence method with those computed using the regional regression method, the region-of-influence method performed systematically better only in the Blue Ridge and is, therefore, not recommended for use in the other physiographic provinces. Peak-flow data for the South Carolina stations used in the regionalization study are provided in appendix A, which contains gaging station information, log-Pearson Type III statistics, information on stage-flow relations, and water-year peak stages and flows. For informational purposes, water-year peak-flow data for stations on regulated streams in South Carolina also are provided in appendix D. Other information pertaining to the regulated streams is provided in the text of the report.

Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

2016-04-01

Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

Flood Frequency Analysis using different flood descriptors - the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamuz, Emilia; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Romanowicz, Renata

2014-05-01

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is customarily performed using annual maximum flows. However, there is a number of different flood descriptors that could be used. Among them are water levels, peaks over the threshold, flood-wave duration, flood volume, etc. In this study we compare different approaches to FFA for their suitability for flood risk assessment. The main goal is to obtain the FFA curve with the smallest possible uncertainty limits, in particular for the distribution tail. The extrapolation of FFA curves is crucial in future flood risk assessment in a changing climate. We compare the FFA curves together with their uncertainty limits obtained using flows, water levels, flood inundation area and volumes for the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula. Moreover, we derive the FFA curves obtained using simulated flows. The results are used to derive the error distribution for the maximum simulated and observed values under different modelling techniques and assess its influence on flood risk predictions for ungauged catchments. MIKE11, HEC-RAS and transfer function model are applied in average and extreme conditions to model flow propagation in the Warsaw Vistula reach. The additional questions we want to answer are what is the range of application of different modelling tools under various flow conditions and how can the uncertainty of flood risk assessment be decreased. This work was partly supported by the projects "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)" and "Modern statistical models for analysis of flood frequency and features of flood waves", carried by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences on the order of the National Science Centre (contracts Nos. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866 and 2012/05/B/ST10/00482, respectively). The water level and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

A Synoptic Climatology of Combined Severe/Weather/Flash Flood Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pallozzi, Kyle J.

Classical forms of severe weather such as tornadoes, damaging convective wind gusts, and large hail, as well as flash flooding events, all have potentially large societal impacts. This impact is further magnified when these hazards occur simultaneously in time and space. A major challenge for operational forecasters is how to accurately predict the occurrence of combined storm hazards, and how to communicate the associated multiple threat hazards to the public. A seven-year climatology (2009-2015) of combined severe weather/flash flooding (SVR/FF) events across the contiguous United States was developed in attempt to study the combined SVR/FF event hazards further. A total of 211 total cases were identified and sub-divided into seven subcategories based on their convective morphology and meteorological characteristics. Heatmaps of event report frequency were created to extract spatial, seasonal and interannual patterns in SVR/FF event activity. Diurnal trends were examined from time series plots of tornado, hail, wind and flash flood/flood reports. Event-centered composites of environmental variables were created for each subcategory from 13 km RUC/RAP analyses. Representative cases studies were conducted for each subcategory. A "ring of fire" with the highest levels of SVR/FF event activity was noted across the central United States. SVR/FF events were least common in the Southeast, High Plains, and Northern Plains. Enhanced SVR/FF activity reflected contributions from synoptic events during the cool and shoulder seasons over the Lower Mississippi, Arkansas and Tennessee Valleys, and MCS activity during the warm season over the lower Great Plains, and the Upper Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio River Valleys. Results from the composite analyses indicated that relatively high values of CAPE, surface-500 hPa shear and precipitable water were observed for all subcategories. Case studies show that many high-end SVR/FF events featured slow-moving, or quasi-stationary fronts/outflow boundaries, a moist troposphere and front-paralleling 850-300 hPa mean winds. In this environment, individual convective cells can be advected downstream along the initiating boundary, resulting in flood-producing training echoes. A relatively moist troposphere leads to efficient precipitation production, limits cold-pool formation/off-boundary propagation, and further increases the likelihood of flash flooding.

RainyDay: An Online, Open-Source Tool for Physically-based Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, D.; Yu, G.; Holman, K. D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis in ungaged or changing watersheds typically requires rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves combined with hydrologic models. IDF curves only depict point-scale rainfall depth, while true rainstorms exhibit complex spatial and temporal structures. Floods result from these rainfall structures interacting with watershed features such as land cover, soils, and variable antecedent conditions as well as river channel processes. Thus, IDF curves are traditionally combined with a variety of "design storm" assumptions such as area reduction factors and idealized rainfall space-time distributions to translate rainfall depths into inputs that are suitable for flood hydrologic modeling. The impacts of such assumptions are relatively poorly understood. Meanwhile, modern precipitation estimates from gridded weather radar, grid-interpolated rain gages, satellites, and numerical weather models provide more realistic depictions of rainfall space-time structure. Usage of such datasets for rainfall and flood frequency analysis, however, are hindered by relatively short record lengths. We present RainyDay, an open-source stochastic storm transposition (SST) framework for generating large numbers of realistic rainfall "scenarios." SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by temporal resampling and geospatial transposition of observed storms to extract space-time information from regional gridded rainfall data. Relatively short (10-15 year) records of bias-corrected radar rainfall data are sufficient to estimate rainfall and flood events with much longer recurrence intervals including 100-year and 500-year events. We describe the SST methodology as implemented in RainyDay and compare rainfall IDF results from RainyDay to conventional estimates from NOAA Atlas 14. Then, we demonstrate some of the flood frequency analysis properties that are possible when RainyDay is integrated with a distributed hydrologic model, including robust estimation of flood hazards in a changing watershed. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is supporting the development of a web-based variant of RainyDay, a "beta" version of which is available at http://her.cee.wisc.edu/projects/rainyday/.

Detection and characterizacion of Colombian wetlands using Alos Palsar and MODIS imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estupinan-Suarez, L. M.; Florez-Ayala, C.; Quinones, M. J.; Pacheco, A. M.; Santos, A. C.

2015-04-01

Wetlands regulate the flow of water and play a key role in risk management of extreme flooding and drought. In Colombia, wetland conservation has been a priority for the government. However, there is an information gap neither an inventory nor a national baseline map exists. In this paper, we present a method that combines a wetlands thematic map with remote sensing derived data, and hydrometeorological stations data in order to characterize the Colombian wetlands. Following the adopted definition of wetlands, available spatial data on land forms, soils and vegetation was integrated in order to characterize spatially the occurrence of wetlands. This data was then complemented with remote sensing derived data from active and passive sensors. A flood frequency map derived from dense time series analysis of the ALOS PALSAR FBD /FBS data (2007-2010) at 50m resolution was used to analyse the recurrence of flooding. In this map, flooding under the canopy and open water classes could be mapped due to the capabilities of the L-band radar. In addition, MODIS NDVI profiles (2007-2012) were used to characterize temporally water mirrors and vegetation, founding different patterns at basin levels. Moreover, the Colombian main basins were analysed and typified based on hydroperiods, highlighting different hydrological regimes within each basin. The combination of thematic maps, SAR data, optical imagery and hydrological data provided information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of wetlands at regional scales. Our results provide the first validated baseline wetland map for Colombia, this way providing valuable information for ecosystem management.

Merging information from multi-model flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Vine, Nataliya

2016-04-01

Multi-model ensembles are becoming widely accepted for flood frequency change analysis. The use of multiple models results in large uncertainty around estimates of flood magnitudes, due to both uncertainty in model selection and natural variability of river flow. The challenge is therefore to extract the most meaningful signal from the multi-model predictions, accounting for both model quality and uncertainties in individual model estimates. The study demonstrates the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach facilitates explicit treatment of shared multi-model discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, by treating the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The advantages of the approach are: 1) to insure an adequate 'baseline' conditions with which to compare future changes; 2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; 3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; 4) to adjust multi-model consistency criteria when model biases are large; and 5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

Effects of Climate Change on Flood Frequency in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Stumbaugh, M. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

A key concern about climate change as related to water resources is the potential for changes in hydrologic extremes, including flooding. We explore changes in flood frequency in the Pacific Northwest using downscaled output from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for historical forcings (1950-2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2006-2100). We use archived output from the Integrated Scenarios Project (ISP) (http://maca.northwestknowledge.net/), which uses the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method for statistical downscaling. The MACA-downscaled GCM output was then used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a 1/16th degree spatial resolution and a daily time step. For each of the 238 HUC-08 areas within the Pacific Northwest (USGS Hydrologic Region 15), we computed, from the ISP archive, the series of maximum daily runoff values (surrogate for the annual maximum flood), and then the mean annual flood. Finally, we computed the ratios of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 mean annual floods to their corresponding values for the historical period. We evaluate spatial patterns in the results. For snow-dominated watersheds, the changes are dominated by reductions in flood frequency in basins that currently have spring-dominant floods, and increases in snow affected basins with fall-dominant floods. In low elevation basins west of the Cascades, changes in flooding are more directly related to changes in precipitation extremes. We further explore the nature of these effects by evaluating the mean Julian day of the annual maximum flood for each HUC-08 and how this changes between the historical and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

A geographic information system tool to solve regression equations and estimate flow-frequency characteristics of Vermont Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Tasker, Gary D.; Johnston, Craig M.

2003-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of streamflow are needed to safely and economically design bridges, culverts, and other structures in or near streams. These estimates also are used for managing floodplains, identifying flood-hazard areas, and establishing flood-insurance rates, but may be required at ungaged sites where no observed flood data are available for streamflow-frequency analysis. This report describes equations for estimating flow-frequency characteristics at ungaged, unregulated streams in Vermont. In the past, regression equations developed to estimate streamflow statistics required users to spend hours manually measuring basin characteristics for the stream site of interest. This report also describes the accompanying customized geographic information system (GIS) tool that automates the measurement of basin characteristics and calculation of corresponding flow statistics. The tool includes software that computes the accuracy of the results and adjustments for expected probability and for streamflow data of a nearby stream-gaging station that is either upstream or downstream and within 50 percent of the drainage area of the site where the flow-frequency characteristics are being estimated. The custom GIS can be linked to the National Flood Frequency program, adding the ability to plot peak-flow-frequency curves and synthetic hydrographs and to compute adjustments for urbanization.

Evaluation of design flood frequency methods for Iowa streams : final report, June 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

The objective of this project was to assess the predictive accuracy of flood frequency estimation for small Iowa streams based : on the Rational Method, the NRCS curve number approach, and the Iowa Runoff Chart. The evaluation was based on : comparis...

Flood analyses for Department of Energy Y-12, ORNL and K-25 Plants. Flood analyses in support of flood emergency planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-05-01

The study involved defining the flood potential and local rainfall depth and duration data for the Department of Energy`s (DOE) Y-12, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and K-25 plants. All three plants are subject to flooding from the Clinch River. In addition, the Y-12 plant is subject to flooding from East Fork Poplar and Bear Creeks, the ORNL plant from Whiteoak Creek and Melton Branch, and the K-25 plant from Poplar Creek. Determination of flood levels included consideration of both rainfall events and postulated failures of Norris and Melton Hill Dams in seismic events.

Floods in a changing climate

Treesearch

Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

2013-01-01

Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

Probabilistic modelling of flood events using the entropy copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fan; Zheng, Qian

2016-11-01

The estimation of flood frequency is vital for the flood control strategies and hydraulic structure design. Generating synthetic flood events according to statistical properties of observations is one of plausible methods to analyze the flood frequency. Due to the statistical dependence among the flood event variables (i.e. the flood peak, volume and duration), a multidimensional joint probability estimation is required. Recently, the copula method is widely used for multivariable dependent structure construction, however, the copula family should be chosen before application and the choice process is sometimes rather subjective. The entropy copula, a new copula family, employed in this research proposed a way to avoid the relatively subjective process by combining the theories of copula and entropy. The analysis shows the effectiveness of the entropy copula for probabilistic modelling the flood events of two hydrological gauges, and a comparison of accuracy with the popular copulas was made. The Gibbs sampling technique was applied for trivariate flood events simulation in order to mitigate the calculation difficulties of extending to three dimension directly. The simulation results indicate that the entropy copula is a simple and effective copula family for trivariate flood simulation.

Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine-Carpathian range.

PubMed

Parajka, J; Kohnová, S; Bálint, G; Barbuc, M; Borga, M; Claps, P; Cheval, S; Dumitrescu, A; Gaume, E; Hlavčová, K; Merz, R; Pfaundler, M; Stancalie, G; Szolgay, J; Blöschl, G

2010-11-17

The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine-Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine-Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation.

Seasonal characteristics of flood regimes across the Alpine–Carpathian range

PubMed Central

Parajka, J.; Kohnová, S.; Bálint, G.; Barbuc, M.; Borga, M.; Claps, P.; Cheval, S.; Dumitrescu, A.; Gaume, E.; Hlavčová, K.; Merz, R.; Pfaundler, M.; Stancalie, G.; Szolgay, J.; Blöschl, G.

2010-01-01

Summary The aim of this paper is to analyse the differences in the long-term regimes of extreme precipitation and floods across the Alpine–Carpathian range using seasonality indices and atmospheric circulation patterns to understand the main flood-producing processes. This is supported by cluster analyses to identify areas of similar flood processes, both in terms of precipitation forcing and catchment processes. The results allow to isolate regions of similar flood generation processes including southerly versus westerly circulation patterns, effects of soil moisture seasonality due to evaporation and effects of soil moisture seasonality due to snow melt. In many regions of the Alpine–Carpathian range, there is a distinct shift in flood generating processes with flood magnitude as evidenced by a shift from summer to autumn floods. It is argued that the synoptic approach proposed here is valuable in both flood analysis and flood estimation. PMID:25067854

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharges for the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, Scott D.

2006-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable flood-hazard mapping in the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. The Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Navajo Nation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey update estimates of peak discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and update regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites using data collected through 1999 at 146 gaging stations, an additional 13 years of peak-discharge data since a 1997 investigation, which used gaging-station data through 1986. The equations for estimation of peak discharges at ungaged sites were developed for flood regions 8, 11, high elevation, and 6 and are delineated on the basis of the hydrologic codes from the 1997 investigation. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 82 of the 146 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each region, logarithms of the peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then was applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction for a peak discharge have a recurrence interval of 100-years for region 8 was 53 percent (average) for the 100-year flood. The average standard of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 45 to 83 percent for the 100-year flood. Estimated standard error of prediction for a hybrid method for region 11 was large in the 1997 investigation. No distinction of floods produced from a high-elevation region was presented in the 1997 investigation. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are considered to be more reliable than those in the 1997 report because of the increased length of record and improved GIS method. Techniques for transferring flood-frequency relations to ungaged sites on the same stream can be estimated at an ungaged site by a direct application of the regional regression equation or at an ungaged site on a stream that has a gaging station upstream or downstream by using the drainage-area ratio and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region.

Changes in Hydrological Extremes and its Relation to Climate Variability in Mountainous Watershed: A Case Study from Gandaki River Basin, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, N. S.; Dahal, P.

2016-12-01

Changes in the hydrological extreme are expected due to climate variability and are needed to assess at local and regional scales since these changes are not uniform over the globe. This study analyses the changes in intensity, frequency and persistence hydrological extreme in Gandaki River Basin (GRB) Nepal over past and future and its relation to climate variability. Hydrological data of 12 different hydrological stations covering all the sub basins of Gandaki River Basin were analyzed. At least 1 hydrological station in each sub basin to the maximum of 3 was taken into consideration for this study. Results show that hydrological extreme have increased in intensity, frequency and persistence over recent year and are predicted to increase in future (2030-2060). The time-series analysis revealed an increase in the magnitude, frequency and duration of flood and drought. The instantaneous maximum flow, flood events and duration of flood events are found to have increasing trend. The minimum discharge was observed to be decreasing which entails that the water availability in the driest time is decreasing. Trend analysis of seasonal flow revealed an increase in monsoon flows and decreasing in post monsoon. Changes in climate variability over the same period shows higher anomalies in both temperature and precipitation in recent decades (1990s and 2000s) compared to the baseline period (1970-2000). Model suggests an increasing trend in annual flows with the increase more pronounced in 2060s. Significant increase in extreme flows and subsequent decrease in dependable flows suggest increase in frequency of isolated extreme flows followed by prolonged dry spells. Data also showed that the mean temperature will be increasing from 1.9 0C to 3.1 0C and precipitation will be changing by -8% to +12% in 2031-2060 compared to the baseline period. For long-term planning and management of water resources, current trend and future change in the pattern of water availability should be analysed well in advance. Climate change with intensifying extreme events will likely have serious consequences on the hydrological changes. Therefore, this study would be useful in understanding how the hydrological regime has been changing with climate change in mountainous watershed.

Computation and analysis of the instantaneous-discharge record for the Colorado River at Lees Ferry, Arizona : May 8, 1921, through September 30, 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Topping, David J.; Schmidt, John C.; Vierra, L.E.

2003-01-01

A gaging station has been operated by the U.S. Geological Survey at Lees Ferry, Arizona, since May 8, 1921. In March 1963, Glen Canyon Dam was closed 15.5 miles upstream, cutting off the upstream sediment supply and regulating the discharge of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry for the first time in history. To evaluate the pre-dam variability in the hydrology of the Colorado River, and to determine the effect of the operation of Glen Canyon Dam on the downstream hydrology of the river, a continuous record of the instantaneous discharge of the river at Lees Ferry was constructed and analyzed for the entire period of record between May 8, 1921, and September 30, 2000. This effort involved retrieval from the Federal Records Centers and then synthesis of all the raw historical data collected by the U.S. Geological Survey at Lees Ferry. As part of this process, the peak discharges of the two largest historical floods at Lees Ferry, the 1884 and 1921 floods, were reanalyzed and recomputed. This reanalysis indicates that the peak discharge of the 1884 flood was 210,000?30,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), and the peak discharge of the 1921 flood was 170,000?20,000 ft3/s. These values are indistinguishable from the peak discharges of these floods originally estimated or published by the U.S. Geological Survey, but are substantially less than the currently accepted peak discharges of these floods. The entire continuous record of instantaneous discharge of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry can now be requested from the U.S. Geological Survey Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center, Flagstaff, Arizona, and is also available electronically at http://www.gcmrc.gov. This record is perhaps the longest (almost 80 years) high-resolution (mostly 15- to 30-minute precision) times series of river discharge available. Analyses of these data, therefore, provide an unparalleled characterization of both the natural variability in the discharge of a river and the effects of dam operations on a river. Following the construction and quality-control checks of the continuous record of instantaneous discharge, analyses of flow duration, sub-daily flow variability, and flood frequency were conducted on the pre- and post-dam parts of the record. These analyses indicate that although the discharge of the Colorado River varied substantially prior to the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, operation of the dam has caused changes in discharge that are more extreme than the pre-dam natural variability. Operation of the dam has eliminated flood flows and base flows, and thereby has effectively 'flattened' the annual hydrograph. Prior to closure of the dam, the discharge of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry was lower than 7,980 ft3/s half of the time. Discharges lower than about 9,000 ft3/s were important for the seasonal accumulation and storage of sand in the pre-dam river downstream from Lees Ferry. The current operating plan for Glen Canyon Dam no longer allows sustained discharges lower than 8,000 ft3/s to be released. Thus, closure of the dam has not only cut off the upstream supply of sediment, but operation of the dam has also largely eliminated discharges during which sand could be demonstrated to accumulate in the river. In addition to radically changing the hydrology of the river, operation of the dam for hydroelectric-power generation has introduced large daily fluctuations in discharge. During the pre-dam era, the median daily range in discharge was only 542 ft3/s, although daily ranges in discharge exceeding 20,000 ft3/s were observed during the summer thunderstorm season. Relative to the pre-dam period of record, dam operations have increased the daily range in discharge during all but 0.1 percent of all days. The post-dam median daily range in discharge, 8,580 ft3/s, exceeds the pre-dam median discharge of 7,980 ft3/s. Operation of the dam has also radically changed the frequency of floods on the Colorado River at Lees Ferry. The frequency of f

Estimation of Flood Discharges at Selected Recurrence Intervals for Streams in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.

2009-01-01

This report provides estimates of flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for streamgages in and adjacent to New Hampshire and equations for estimating flood discharges at recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in New Hampshire. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression. Flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 117 streamgages were used in developing the equations. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations include drainage area, mean April precipitation, percentage of wetland area, and main channel slope. The average standard error of prediction for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval flood discharges with these equations are 30.0, 30.8, 32.0, 34.2, 36.0, 38.1, and 43.4 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for selected streamgages were computed following the guidelines in Bulletin 17B of the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. To determine the flood-discharge exceedence probabilities at streamgages in New Hampshire, a new generalized skew coefficient map covering the State was developed. The standard error of the data on new map is 0.298. To improve estimates of flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for 20 streamgages with short-term records (10 to 15 years), record extension using the two-station comparison technique was applied. The two-station comparison method uses data from a streamgage with long-term record to adjust the frequency characteristics at a streamgage with a short-term record. A technique for adjusting a flood-discharge frequency curve computed from a streamgage record with results from the regression equations is described in this report. Also, a technique is described for estimating flood discharge at a selected recurrence interval for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage using a drainage-area adjustment. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is a World Wide Web application providing automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

Watershed Characteristics and Pre-Restoration Surface-Water Hydrology of Minebank Run, Baltimore County, Maryland, Water Years 2002-04

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doheny, Edward J.; Starsoneck, Roger J.; Striz, Elise A.; Mayer, Paul M.

2006-01-01

Stream restoration efforts have been ongoing in Maryland since the early 1990s. Physical stream restoration often involves replacement of lost sediments to elevate degraded streambeds, re-establishment of riffle-pool sequences along the channel profile, planting vegetation in riparian zones, and re-constructing channel banks, point bars, flood plains, and stream-meanders. The primary goal of many restoration efforts is to re-establish geomorphic stability of the stream channel and reduce erosive energy from urban runoff. Monitoring streams prior to and after restoration could help quantify other possible benefits of stream restoration, such as improved water quality and biota. This report presents general watershed characteristics associated with the Minebank Run watershed; a small, urban watershed in the south-central section of Baltimore County, Maryland that was physically restored in phases during 1999, 2004, and 2005. The physiography, geology, hydrology, land use, soils, and pre-restoration geomorphic setting of the unrestored stream channel are discussed. The report describes a reach of Minebank Run that was selected for the purpose of collecting several types of environmental data prior to restoration, including continuous-record and partial-record stage and streamflow data, precipitation, and ground-water levels. Examples of surface-water data that were collected in and near the study reach during water years 2002 through 2004, including continuous-record streamflow, partial-record stage and discharge, and precipitation, are described. These data were used in analyses of several characteristics of surface-water hydrology in the watershed, including (1) rainfall totals, storm duration, and intensity, (2) instantaneous peak discharge and daily mean discharge, (3) stage-discharge ratings, (4) hydraulic-geometry relations, (5) water-surface slope, (6) time of concentration, (7) flood frequency, (8) flood volume, and (9) rainfall-runoff relations. Several hydrologic characteristics that are typical of urban environments were quantified by these analyses. These include (1) large ratios of peak discharge to daily mean discharge as an indicator of flashiness, (2) consistent shifting of the stage-discharge rating over short periods of time that indicates instability of the stream channel, (3) analyses of hydraulic-geometry relations that indicate mean velocities of 11 feet per second or more while the flow is contained in the stream channel, (4) discharges that are 4 to 5 times larger in Minebank Run for corresponding flood frequency recurrence intervals than in Slade Run, which is a Piedmont watershed of similar size with smaller percentages of urban development, and (5) flood waves that can travel through the stream channel at a velocity of 412 feet per minute, or 6.9 feet per second.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cummans, J.E.; Collings, Michael R.; Nasser, Edmund George

1975-01-01

Relations are provided to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on Washington streams. Annual-peak-flow data from stream gaging stations on unregulated streams having 1 years or more of record were used to determine a log-Pearson Type III frequency curve for each station. Flood magnitudes having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, i0, 25, 50, and 10years were then related to physical and climatic indices of the drainage basins by multiple-regression analysis using the Biomedical Computer Program BMDO2R. These regression relations are useful for estimating flood magnitudes of the specified recurrence intervals at ungaged or short-record sites. Separate sets of regression equations were defined for western and eastern parts of the State, and the State was further subdivided into 12 regions in which the annual floods exhibit similar flood characteristics. Peak flows are related most significantly in western Washington to drainage-area size and mean annual precipitation. In eastern Washington-they are related most significantly to drainage-area size, mean annual precipitation, and percentage of forest cover. Standard errors of estimate of the estimating relations range from 25 to 129 percent, and the smallest errors are generally associated with the more humid regions.

Generating quantitative palaeoflood data from homogeneous lake sediments: a case-study from Brotherswater, northwest England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schillereff, Daniel; Chiverrell, Richard; Macdonald, Neil; Hooke, Janet

2016-04-01

The scarcity of long-term hydrological data is a barrier to reliably determining the likelihood of floods becoming more frequent and/or intense in a warmer world. Lakes and their sediments are increasingly being used to reconstruct long-term, highly-resolved datasets of past floods but the ultimate goal, generating quantitative palaeohydrological data to augment flood frequency analyses, is a persistent challenge. To this end, ascertaining the autogenic and allogenic processes influencing the character and preservation potential of palaeoflood laminations and determining the minimum discharge at which a sedimentary imprint will be deposited in a particular system are two key precursors. Some success has been achieved at lakes containing annually-laminated sequences or where event layers exhibit well-defined lithological contacts. Many non-alpine and non-polar lakes, especially those in temperate regions, are instead characterised by visually-homogeneous, organic-rich sediments from which discrete flood laminations are difficult to discriminate. Working at Brotherswater, a small upland lake in northwest England, we have successfully demonstrated an approach to obtain flood frequency and magnitude data from this type of lake system by integrating a 16 month sediment trap deployment (CE 2013-2014) with the recent (CE 1962 - 2014) depositional record. The geochemical composition and end-member modelling of the trap data shed light on the seasonal variation in background sedimentation dynamics, specifically enhanced sediment supply during winter, spring diatom blooms and heightened summer productivity, which alter the signature of coarse-grained deposition in response to higher flows. Having pinpointed the characteristic flood end-member, comparison of the short-core palaeoflood reconstruction to local river discharge data was able to reveal the hydrological thresholds of this system: flood magnitudes calculated to have a four year recurrence interval are preserved in delta-proximal sediments but the central basin was less sensitive, declining to nine years. These results have been further contextualised through comparison with the sedimentological signature of a recent extreme flood captured by sediment traps and in short cores extracted immediately post-event. On the 5-6 December Storm Desmond delivered unprecedented rainfall and multiple gauging stations in the region surpassed record river flow, offering a unique opportunity to test a sediment-based palaeoflood record. These data re-emphasise the need for systematic process monitoring and calibration of the depositional record to obtain a site-specific understanding of internal and external factors controlling event signature preservation. Wider implementation of this approach at equivalent lakes offers a vast, untapped archive of palaeohydrological data for hydrologists, climate modellers, engineers and policy makers addressing future flood risks.

Flash floods in Europe: state of the art and research perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaume, Eric

2014-05-01

Flash floods, i.e. floods induced by severe rainfall events generally affecting watersheds of limited area, are the most frequent, destructive and deadly kind of natural hazard known in Europe and throughout the world. Flash floods are especially intense across the Mediterranean zone, where rainfall accumulations exceeding 500 mm within a few hours may be observed. Despite this state of facts, the study of extremes in hydrology has essentially gone unexplored until the recent past, with the exception of some rare factual reports on individual flood events, with the sporadic inclusion of isolated estimated peak discharges. Floods of extraordinary magnitude are in fact hardly ever captured by existing standard measurement networks, either because they are too heavily concentrated in space and time or because their discharges greatly exceed the design and calibration ranges of the measurement devices employed (stream gauges). This situation has gradually evolved over the last decade for two main reasons. First, the expansion and densification of weather radar networks, combined with improved radar quantitative precipitation estimates, now provide ready access to rainfall measurements at spatial and temporal scales that, while not perfectly accurate, are compatible with the study of extreme events. Heavy rainfall events no longer fail to be recorded by existing rain gauge and radar networks. Second, pioneering research efforts on extreme floods, based on precise post-flood surveys, have helped overcome the limitations imposed by a small base of available direct measured data. This activity has already yielded significant progress in expanding the knowledge and understanding of extreme flash floods. This presentation will provide a review of the recent research progresses in the area of flash flood studies, mainly based on the outcomes of the European research projects FLOODsite, HYDRATE and Hymex. It will show how intensive collation of field data helped better define the possible magnitudes of flood volumes and discharges during flash floods, their spatial distribution and rates of occurrence, as well as the factors that control the hydrological response of watersheds to heavy rainfalls explaining the large spatial variability in flood hazard. Developments in the fields of flood frequency analyses and flood forecasting based on the recently acquired data or adapted for the valuation of this specific data will also be presented. The presentation will end suggesting some perspectives for future research activities on flash floods.

Special Flood Hazard Evaluation Report, Maumee River, Defiance and Paulding Counties, Ohio

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-01-01

into the Flood Flow Frequency Analysis (FFFA) computer program (Reference 3) to determine the discharge-frequency relationship for the Maumee River...although the flood may occur in any year. It is based on statistical analysis of streamflow records available for the watershed and analysis of rainfall...C) K) K4 10 ERFODBUDR .S ryEgne itit ufI N - FODA ONAYSEIA LO AADEAUTO 6 ? -F -C )I= ~ - %E )tvXJ. AE LO LVTO MAMERVE CROS SECIONLOCAION DEFINCEAND

A fluvial and pluvial probabilistic flood hazard analysis for Can Tho city, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martinez, Oriol; Thi Chinh, Do; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2014-05-01

Can Tho city is the largest city and the economic heart of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Due to its economic importance and envisaged development goals the city grew rapidly in population size and extend over the last two decades. Large parts of the city are located in flood prone areas, and also the central parts of the city recently experienced an increasing number of flood events, both of fluvial and pluvial nature. As the economic power and asset values are constantly increasing, this poses a considerable risk for the city. The the aim of this study is to perform a flood hazard analysis considering both fluvial and pluvial floods and to derive probabilistic flood hazard maps. This requires in a first step an understanding of the typical flood mechanisms. Fluvial floods are triggered by a coincidence of high water levels during the annual flood period in the Mekong Delta with high tidal levels, which cause in combination short term inundations in Can Tho. Pluvial floods are triggered by typical tropical convective rain storms during the monsoon season. These two flood pathways are essentially independent in its sources and can thus be treated in the hazard analysis accordingly. For the fluvial hazard analysis we propose a bivariate frequency analysis of the Mekong flood characteristics, the annual maximum flood discharge Q and the annual flood volume V at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta, the gauging station Kratie. This defines probabilities of exceedance of different Q-V pairs, which are transferred into synthetic flood hydrographs. The synthetic hydrographs are routed through a quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of the entire Mekong Delta in order to provide boundary conditions for a detailed hazard mapping of Can Tho. This downscaling step is necessary, because the huge complexity of the river and channel network does not allow for a proper definition of boundary conditions for Can Tho city by gauge data alone. In addition the available gauge data around Can Tho are too short for a meaningful frequency analysis. The detailed hazard mapping is performed by a 2D hydrodynamic model for Can Tho city. As the scenarios are derived in a Monte-Carlo framework, the final flood hazard maps are probabilistic, i.e. show the median flood hazard along with uncertainty estimates for each defined level of probabilities of exceedance. For the pluvial flood hazard a frequency analysis of the hourly rain gauge data of Can Tho is performed implementing a peak-over-threshold procedure. Based on this frequency analysis synthetic rains storms are generated in a Monte-Carlo framework for the same probabilities of exceedance as in the fluvial flood hazard analysis. Probabilistic flood hazard maps were then generated with the same 2D hydrodynamic model for the city. In a last step the fluvial and pluvial scenarios are combined assuming independence of the events. These scenarios were also transferred into hazard maps by the 2D hydrodynamic model finally yielding combined fluvial-pluvial probabilistic flood hazard maps for Can Tho. The derived set of maps may be used for an improved city planning or a flood risk analysis.

6-kyr record of flood frequency and intensity in the western Mediterranean Alps - Interplay of solar and temperature forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabatier, Pierre; Wilhelm, Bruno; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Moiroux, Fanny; Poulenard, Jérôme; Develle, Anne-Lise; Bichet, Adeline; Chen, Wentao; Pignol, Cécile; Reyss, Jean-Louis; Gielly, Ludovic; Bajard, Manon; Perrette, Yves; Malet, Emmanuel; Taberlet, Pierre; Arnaud, Fabien

2017-08-01

The high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis of a sediment sequence from Lake Savine (Western Mediterranean Alps, France) led to the identification of 220 event layers for the last 6000 years. 200 were triggered by flood events and 20 by underwater mass movements possibly related to earthquakes that occurred in 5 clusters of increase seismicity. Because human activity could influence the flood chronicle, the presence of pastures was reconstructed through ancient DNA, which suggested that the flood chronicle was mainly driven by hydroclimate variability. Weather reanalysis of historical floods allow to identify that mesoscale precipitation events called "East Return" events were the main triggers of floods recorded in Lake Savine. The first part of this palaeoflood record (6-4 kyr BP) was characterized by increases in flood frequency and intensity in phase with Northern Alpine palaeoflood records. By contrast, the second part of the record (i.e., since 4 kyr BP) was phased with Southern Alpine palaeoflood records. These results suggest a palaeohydrological transition at approximately 4 kyr BP, as has been previously described for the Mediterranean region. This may have resulted in a change of flood-prone hydro-meteorological processes, i.e., in the balance between occurrence and intensity of local convective climatic phenomena and their influence on Mediterranean mesoscale precipitation events in this part of the Alps. At a centennial timescale, increases in flood frequency and intensity corresponded to periods of solar minima, affecting climate through atmospheric changes in the Euro-Atlantic sector.

Understanding high magnitude flood risk: evidence from the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, N.

2009-04-01

The average length of gauged river flow records in the UK is ~25 years, which presents a problem in determining flood risk for high-magnitude flood events. Severe floods have been recorded in many UK catchments during the past 10 years, increasing the uncertainty in conventional flood risk estimates based on river flow records. Current uncertainty in flood risk has implications for society (insurance costs), individuals (personal vulnerability) and water resource managers (flood/drought risk). An alternative approach is required which can improve current understanding of the flood frequency/magnitude relationship. Historical documentary accounts are now recognised as a valuable resource when considering the flood frequency/magnitude relationship, but little consideration has been given to the temporal and spatial distribution of these records. Building on previous research based on British rivers (urban centre): Ouse (York), Trent (Nottingham), Tay (Perth), Severn (Shrewsbury), Dee (Chester), Great Ouse (Cambridge), Sussex Ouse (Lewes), Thames (Oxford), Tweed (Kelso) and Tyne (Hexham), this work considers the spatial and temporal distribution of historical flooding. The selected sites provide a network covering many of the largest river catchments in Britain, based on urban centres with long detailed documentary flood histories. The chronologies offer an opportunity to assess long-term patterns of flooding, indirectly determining periods of climatic variability and potentially increased geomorphic activity. This research represents the first coherent large scale analysis undertaken of historical multi-catchment flood chronologies, providing an unparalleled network of sites, permitting analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of historical flood patterns on a national scale.

The 1965 Mississippi River flood in Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwob, Harlan H.; Myers, Richard E.

1965-01-01

Flood data compiled for the part of the River along the eastern border include flood discharges, flood elevations, and the frequency of floods of varying magnitudes. They also include the daily or more frequent stage and discharge data for both the Mississippi River and the downstream gaging stations on Iowa tributaries for the period March-May 1965. Sufficient data are presented to permit studied for preparation of plans for protective works and plans for zoning or for flood plain regulation.

Parsimonious nonstationary flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serago, Jake M.; Vogel, Richard M.

2018-02-01

There is now widespread awareness of the impact of anthropogenic influences on extreme floods (and droughts) and thus an increasing need for methods to account for such influences when estimating a frequency distribution. We introduce a parsimonious approach to nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NFFA) based on a bivariate regression equation which describes the relationship between annual maximum floods, x, and an exogenous variable which may explain the nonstationary behavior of x. The conditional mean, variance and skewness of both x and y = ln (x) are derived, and combined with numerous common probability distributions including the lognormal, generalized extreme value and log Pearson type III models, resulting in a very simple and general approach to NFFA. Our approach offers several advantages over existing approaches including: parsimony, ease of use, graphical display, prediction intervals, and opportunities for uncertainty analysis. We introduce nonstationary probability plots and document how such plots can be used to assess the improved goodness of fit associated with a NFFA.

Flood Risk in the Danube basin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Wortmann, Michel; del Rocio Rivas Lopez, Maria; Liersch, Stefan; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Hardwick, Stephen; Hattermann, Fred

2017-04-01

The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a spatially differentiated perspective. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes, and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support. This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered: near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.

The link between land use and flood risk assessment in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sörensen, Johanna; Kalantari, Zahra

2017-04-01

Densification of urban areas rises a concern for increased pluvial flooding. Flood risk in urban areas might rise under impact of land use changes. Urbanisation involves conversion of natural areas to impermeable areas giving lower infiltration rates and increased runoff. When high-intense rainfall excess the capacity of the drainage system in a city, high runoff causes pluvial flooding in low-laying areas. In the present study, a long time series (20 years) of geo-referenced flood claims from property owners has been collected and analysed in detail to assess flood risk under impact of land use changes in urban areas. The flood claim data come from property owners with flood insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls, as well as flooding from the drainage system, and are used as a proxy for flood severity. The spatial relationships between land use change and flood occurrences in different urban areas were analysed. Special emphasis were put on how nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure relates to flood risk. The relationships defined by a statistical method explaining the tendencies where the land use change contributes to flood risk changes and others engaged factors.

The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; van den Hurk, Bart; Jongman, Brenden; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Veldkamp, Ted; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2018-01-01

Most flood early warning systems have predominantly focused on forecasting floods with lead times of hours or days. However, physical processes during longer timescales can also contribute to flood generation. In this study, we follow a pragmatic approach to analyse the hydro-meteorological pre-conditions of 501 historical damaging floods from 1980 to 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa. These are separated into (a) weather timescale (0-6 days) and (b) seasonal timescale conditions (up to 6 months) before the event. The 7-day precipitation preceding a flood event (PRE7) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) are analysed for the two timescale domains, respectively. Results indicate that high PRE7 does not always generate floods by itself. Seasonal SPEIs, which are not directly correlated with PRE7, exhibit positive (wet) values prior to most flood events across different averaging times, indicating a relationship with flooding. This paper provides evidence that bringing together weather and seasonal conditions can lead to improved flood risk preparedness.

Predicting landscape sensitivity to present and future floods in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Treesearch

Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Sarah L. Lewis; Brian Staab

2015-01-01

Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that...

Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.

2007-12-01

SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.

Front gardens to car parks: changes in garden permeability and effects on flood regulation.

PubMed

Warhurst, Jennifer R; Parks, Katherine E; McCulloch, Lindsay; Hudson, Malcolm D

2014-07-01

This study addresses the consequences of widespread conversion of permeable front gardens to hard standing car parking surfaces, and the potential consequences in high-risk urban flooding hotspots, in the city of Southampton. The last two decades has seen a trend for domestic front gardens in urban areas to be converted for parking, driven by the lack of space and increased car ownership. Despite media and political attention, the effects of this change are unknown, but increased and more intense rainfall, potentially linked to climate change, could generate negative consequences as runoff from impermeable surfaces increases. Information is limited on garden permeability change, despite the consequences for ecosystem services, especially flood regulation. We focused on eight flooding hotspots identified by the local council as part of a wider urban flooding policy response. Aerial photographs from 1991, 2004 and 2011 were used to estimate changes in surface cover and to analyse permeability change within a digital surface model in a GIS environment. The 1, 30 and 100 year required attenuation storage volumes were estimated, which are the temporary storage required to reduce the peak flow rate given surface permeability. Within our study areas, impermeable cover in domestic front gardens increased by 22.47% over the 20-year study period (1991-2011) and required attenuation storage volumes increased by 26.23% on average. These increases suggest that a consequence of the conversion of gardens to parking areas will be a potential increase in flooding frequency and severity - a situation which is likely to occur in urban locations worldwide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Floods in the English River basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, A.J.; Riddle, D.E.

1981-01-01

Information describing floods is essential for proper planning, design, and operation of bridges and other structures on or over streams and their flood plains. This report provides information on flood stages and discharges, flood magnitude and frequency, bench mark data, and flood profiles for the English River and some of its tributaries. It covers the English River, the North English River to near Guernsey, the south Eaglish River to Barnes City and the lower reaches of the Biddle English and Deep Rivers

Distribution of uncertainties at the municipality level for flood risk modelling along the river Meuse: implications for policy-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirotton, Michel; Stilmant, Frédéric; Erpicum, Sébastien; Dewals, Benjamin; Archambeau, Pierre

2016-04-01

Flood risk modelling has been conducted for the whole course of the river Meuse in Belgium. Major cities, such as Liege (200,000 inh.) and Namur (110,000 inh.), are located in the floodplains of river Meuse. Particular attention has been paid to uncertainty analysis and its implications for decision-making. The modelling chain contains flood frequency analysis, detailed 2D hydraulic computations, damage modelling and risk calculation. The relative importance of each source of uncertainty to the overall results uncertainty has been estimated by considering several alternate options for each step of the analysis: different distributions were considered in the flood frequency analysis; the influence of modelling assumptions and boundary conditions (e.g., steady vs. unsteady) were taken into account for the hydraulic computation; two different landuse classifications and two sets of damage functions were used; the number of exceedance probabilities involved in the risk calculation (by integration of the risk-curves) was varied. In addition, the sensitivity of the results with respect to increases in flood discharges was assessed. The considered increases are consistent with a "wet" climate change scenario for the time horizons 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Detrembleur et al., 2015). The results of hazard computation differ significantly between the upper and lower parts of the course of river Meuse in Belgium. In the former, inundation extents grow gradually as the considered flood discharge is increased (i.e. the exceedance probability is reduced), while in the downstream part, protection structures (mainly concrete walls) prevent inundation for flood discharges corresponding to exceedance probabilities of 0.01 and above (in the present climate). For higher discharges, large inundation extents are obtained in the floodplains. The highest values of risk (mean annual damage) are obtained in the municipalities which undergo relatively frequent flooding (upper part of the river), as well as in those of the downstream part of the Meuse in which flow depths in the urbanized floodplains are particularly high when inundation occurs. This is the case of the city of Liege, as a result of a subsidence process following former mining activities. For a given climate scenario, the uncertainty ranges affecting flood risk estimates are significant; but not so much that the results for the different municipalities would overlap substantially. Therefore, these uncertainties do not hamper prioritization in terms of allocation of risk reduction measures at the municipality level. In the present climate, the uncertainties arising from flood frequency analysis have a negligible influence in the upper part of the river, while they have a considerable impact on risk modelling in the lower part, where a threshold effect was observed due to the flood protection structures (sudden transition from no inundation to massive flooding when a threshold discharge is exceeded). Varying the number of exceedance probabilities in the integration of the risk curve has different effects for different municipalities; but it does not change the ranking of the municipalities in terms of flood risk. For the other scenarios, damage estimation contributes most to the overall uncertainties. As shown by this study, the magnitude of the uncertainty and its main origin vary in space and in time. This emphasizes the paramount importance of conducting distributed uncertainty analyses. In the considered study area, prioritization of risk reduction means can be reliably performed despite the modelling uncertainties. Reference Detrembleur, S., Stilmant, F., Dewals, B., Erpicum, S., Archambeau, P., & Pirotton, M. (2015). Impacts of climate change on future flood damage on the river Meuse, with a distributed uncertainty analysis. Natural Hazards, 77(3), 1533-1549. Acknowledgement Part of this research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation. It was also supported by the NWE Interreg IVB Program.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

The central purpose of this report is to present methods : for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on : urban and small, rural streams in the Southeast United States : with particular focus on Georgia, South Carolina, and North : Carolin...

Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean

2017-11-01

Flood frequency analyses (FFAs) are needed for flood risk management. Many methods exist ranging from classical purely statistical approaches to more complex approaches based on process simulation. The results of these methods are associated with uncertainties that are sometimes difficult to estimate due to the complexity of the approaches or the number of parameters, especially for process simulation. This is the case of the simulation-based FFA approach called SHYREG presented in this paper, in which a rainfall generator is coupled with a simple rainfall-runoff model in an attempt to estimate the uncertainties due to the estimation of the seven parameters needed to estimate flood frequencies. The six parameters of the rainfall generator are mean values, so their theoretical distribution is known and can be used to estimate the generator uncertainties. In contrast, the theoretical distribution of the single hydrological model parameter is unknown; consequently, a bootstrap method is applied to estimate the calibration uncertainties. The propagation of uncertainty from the rainfall generator to the hydrological model is also taken into account. This method is applied to 1112 basins throughout France. Uncertainties coming from the SHYREG method and from purely statistical approaches are compared, and the results are discussed according to the length of the recorded observations, basin size and basin location. Uncertainties of the SHYREG method decrease as the basin size increases or as the length of the recorded flow increases. Moreover, the results show that the confidence intervals of the SHYREG method are relatively small despite the complexity of the method and the number of parameters (seven). This is due to the stability of the parameters and takes into account the dependence of uncertainties due to the rainfall model and the hydrological calibration. Indeed, the uncertainties on the flow quantiles are on the same order of magnitude as those associated with the use of a statistical law with two parameters (here generalised extreme value Type I distribution) and clearly lower than those associated with the use of a three-parameter law (here generalised extreme value Type II distribution). For extreme flood quantiles, the uncertainties are mostly due to the rainfall generator because of the progressive saturation of the hydrological model.

Flood and Landslide Applications of High Time Resolution Satellite Rain Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Hong, Yang; Huffman, George J.

2006-01-01

Experimental, potentially real-time systems to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events are described. A key basis for these applications is high time resolution satellite rainfall analyses. Rainfall is the primary cause for devastating floods across the world. However, in many countries, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to insufficient ground networks and absence of data sharing along many trans-boundary river basins. Remotely sensed precipitation from the NASA's TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) operational system (near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg) is used to monitor extreme precipitation events. Then these data are ingested into a macro-scale hydrological model which is parameterized using spatially distributed elevation, soil and land cover datasets available globally from satellite remote sensing. Preliminary flood results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events, with implementation on a quasi-global basis underway. With the availability of satellite rainfall analyses at fine time resolution, it has also become possible to assess landslide risk on a near-global basis. Early results show that landslide occurrence is closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of TRMM rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslides triggered by rainfall is related to rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms. For the purpose of prediction, an empirical TMPA-based rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed and shown to have skill in determining potential areas of landslides. These experimental findings, in combination with landslide surface susceptibility information based on satellite-based land surface information, form a starting point towards a potential operational landslide monitoring/warning system around the globe.

Flood damage in Italy: towards an assessment model of reconstruction costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Genovese, Elisabetta; Modica, Marco; Zoboli, Roberto

2016-04-01

Recent decades in Italy have seen a very rapid expansion of urbanisation in terms of physical assets, while demographics have remained stable. Both the characteristics of Italian soil and anthropic development, along with repeated global climatic stress, have made the country vulnerable to floods, the intensity of which is increasingly alarming. The combination of these trends will contribute to large financial losses due to property damage in the absence of specific mitigation strategies. The present study focuses on the province of Sondrio in Northern Italy (area of about 3,200 km²), which is home to more than 180,000 inhabitants and the population is growing slightly. It is clearly a hot spot for flood exposure, as it is primarily a mountainous area where floods and flash floods hit frequently. The model we use for assessing potential flood damage determines risk scenarios by overlaying flood hazard maps and economic asset data. In Italy, hazard maps are provided by Regional Authorities through the Hydrogeological System Management Plan (PAI) based on EU Flood Directive guidelines. The PAI in the study area includes both the large plain and the secondary river system and considers three hazard scenarios of Low, Medium and High Frequency associated with return periods of 20, 200 and 500 years and related water levels. By an overlay of PAI maps and residential areas, visualized on a GIS, we determine which existing built-up areas are at risk for flood according to each scenario. Then we investigate the value of physical assets potentially affected by floods in terms of market values, using the database of the Italian Property Market Observatory (OMI), and in terms of reconstruction costs, by considering synthetic cost indexes of predominant building types (from census information) and PAI water height. This study illustrates a methodology to assess flood damage in urban settlements and aims to determine general guidelines that can be extended throughout Italy. The final objective will be to analyse how the loss prospective can change when mitigation measures, including actions to reduce the flood hazard and strategies to prevent potential consequences, are implemented. Flood impacts and the corresponding value of mitigation measures will be assessed by means of a cost-benefit analysis in accordance with the EU Floods Directive.

Analysis of magnitude and duration of floods and droughts in the context of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eshetu Debele, Sisay; Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Strupczewski, Witold

2016-04-01

Research and scientific information are key elements of any decision-making process. There is also a strong need for tools to describe and compare in a concise way the regime of hydrological extreme events in the context of presumed climate change. To meet these demands, two complementary methods for estimating high and low-flow frequency characteristics are proposed. Both methods deal with duration and magnitude of extreme events. The first one "flow-duration-frequency" (known as QdF) has already been applied successfully to low-flow analysis, flood flows and rainfall intensity. The second one called "duration-flow-frequency" (DqF) was proposed by Strupczewski et al. in 2010 to flood frequency analysis. The two methods differ in the treatment of flow and duration. In the QdF method the duration (d-consecutive days) is a chosen fixed value and the frequency analysis concerns the annual or seasonal series of mean value of flows exceeded (in the case of floods) or non-exceeded (in the case of droughts) within d-day period. In the second method, DqF, the flows are treated as fixed thresholds and the duration of flows exceeding (floods) and non-exceeding (droughts) these thresholds are a subject of frequency analysis. The comparison of characteristics of floods and droughts in reference period and under future climate conditions for catchments studied within the CHIHE project is presented and a simple way to show the results to non-professionals and decision-makers is proposed. The work was undertaken within the project "Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Extremes (CHIHE)", which is supported by the Norway-Poland Grants Program administered by the Norwegian Research Council. The observed time series were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland. Strupczewski, W. G., Kochanek, K., Markiewicz, I., Bogdanowicz, E., Weglarczyk, S., & Singh V. P. (2010). On the Tails of Distributions of Annual Peak Flow. Hydrology Research, 42, 171-192. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.062

A Study on Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis for Flood Simulation Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Younghun; Ahn, Hyunjun; Joo, Kyungwon; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2014-05-01

Recently, climate change has been observed in Korea as well as in the entire world. The rainstorm has been gradually increased and then the damage has been grown. It is very important to manage the flood control facilities because of increasing the frequency and magnitude of severe rain storm. For managing flood control facilities in risky regions, data sets such as elevation, gradient, channel, land use and soil data should be filed up. Using this information, the disaster situations can be simulated to secure evacuation routes for various rainfall scenarios. The aim of this study is to investigate and determine extreme rainfall quantile estimates in Uijeongbu City using index flood method with L-moments parameter estimation. Regional frequency analysis trades space for time by using annual maximum rainfall data from nearby or similar sites to derive estimates for any given site in a homogeneous region. Regional frequency analysis based on pooled data is recommended for estimation of rainfall quantiles at sites with record lengths less than 5T, where T is return period of interest. Many variables relevant to precipitation can be used for grouping a region in regional frequency analysis. For regionalization of Han River basin, the k-means method is applied for grouping regions by variables of meteorology and geomorphology. The results from the k-means method are compared for each region using various probability distributions. In the final step of the regionalization analysis, goodness-of-fit measure is used to evaluate the accuracy of a set of candidate distributions. And rainfall quantiles by index flood method are obtained based on the appropriate distribution. And then, rainfall quantiles based on various scenarios are used as input data for disaster simulations. Keywords: Regional Frequency Analysis; Scenarios of Rainfall Quantile Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Establishing Active Disaster Management System of Flood Control Structures by using 3D BIM Technique' [NEMA-12-NH-57] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

Floral variation and environmental heterogeneity in a tristylous clonal aquatic of the Pantanal wetlands of Brazil

PubMed Central

Leme da Cunha, Nicolay; Fischer, Erich; Lorenz-Lemke, Aline P.; Barrett, Spencer C. H.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims The balance between stochastic forces and frequency-dependent mating largely governs style morph frequencies in heterostylous populations. In clonal species, deviations from equal morph ratios often result from founder events and unfavourable conditions for sexual reproduction. The aim of this study was to investigate whether different flooding regimes, because of their influence on sexual vs. clonal reproduction, are associated with regional variation in morph frequencies and floral trait differentiation in populations of the clonal, tristylous, aquatic Eichhornia azurea (Pontederiaceae) in the Pantanal wetlands of Brazil. Methods Style morph frequencies were sampled from 73 populations distributed across four flooding regimes differing in depth and duration. Measurements of flower size, sex-organ dimension, pollen size and pollen production were made in selected populations, and pollinator assemblages and their functional traits were recorded. Key Results Most populations of E. azurea were tristylous (78 %), but the majority exhibited uneven morph ratios. The frequency of the mid-styled morph was significantly lower than that of the long- and short-styled morphs. Morph evenness was positively associated with population size but not with flooding regime. There were significant phenotypic differences among flooding regimes for all floral traits, including populations with reduced flower size, sex-organ length and smaller pollen. Pollinator assemblages varied with flood duration. Conclusions The similar morph structure and evenness of populations, regardless of flooding regime, suggest that sexual reproduction and clonal dispersal are sufficiently common to prevent the signature of founder events from dominating in a region. However, the pervasive occurrence of biased morph ratios in most populations suggests that many are in a non-equilibrium state. The reduced frequency of the mid-styled morph in trimorphic and dimorphic populations may be associated with the weak self-incompatibility of this morph resulting in selfing and inbreeding depression. Clonality in E. azurea and the weak self-incompatibility of the mid-styled morph may make it more vulnerable to geitonogamous selfing. PMID:25180289

Regression equations for estimating flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-Year recurrence intervals in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2004-01-01

Multiple linear-regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitudes of floods in Connecticut for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The equations can be used for nonurban, unregulated stream sites in Connecticut with drainage areas ranging from about 2 to 715 square miles. Flood-frequency data and hydrologic characteristics from 70 streamflow-gaging stations and the upstream drainage basins were used to develop the equations. The hydrologic characteristics?drainage area, mean basin elevation, and 24-hour rainfall?are used in the equations to estimate the magnitude of floods. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations are 31.8, 32.7, 34.4, 35.9, 37.6 and 45.0 percent for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Simplified equations using only one hydrologic characteristic?drainage area?also were developed. The regression analysis is based on generalized least-squares regression techniques. Observed flows (log-Pearson Type III analysis of the annual maximum flows) from five streamflow-gaging stations in urban basins in Connecticut were compared to flows estimated from national three-parameter and seven-parameter urban regression equations. The comparison shows that the three- and seven- parameter equations used in conjunction with the new statewide equations generally provide reasonable estimates of flood flows for urban sites in Connecticut, although a national urban flood-frequency study indicated that the three-parameter equations significantly underestimated flood flows in many regions of the country. Verification of the accuracy of the three-parameter or seven-parameter national regression equations using new data from Connecticut stations was beyond the scope of this study. A technique for calculating flood flows at streamflow-gaging stations using a weighted average also is described. Two estimates of flood flows?one estimate based on the log-Pearson Type III analyses of the annual maximum flows at the gaging station, and the other estimate from the regression equation?are weighted together based on the years of record at the gaging station and the equivalent years of record value determined from the regression. Weighted averages of flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are tabulated for the 70 streamflow-gaging stations used in the regression analysis. Generally, weighted averages give the most accurate estimate of flood flows at gaging stations. An evaluation of the Connecticut's streamflow-gaging network was performed to determine whether the spatial coverage and range of geographic and hydrologic conditions are adequately represented for transferring flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites. Fifty-one of 54 stations in the current (2004) network support one or more flood needs of federal, state, and local agencies. Twenty-five of 54 stations in the current network are considered high-priority stations by the U.S. Geological Survey because of their contribution to the longterm understanding of floods, and their application for regionalflood analysis. Enhancements to the network to improve overall effectiveness for regionalization can be made by increasing the spatial coverage of gaging stations, establishing stations in regions of the state that are not well-represented, and adding stations in basins with drainage area sizes not represented. Additionally, the usefulness of the network for characterizing floods can be maintained and improved by continuing operation at the current stations because flood flows can be more accurately estimated at stations with continuous, long-term record.

Re-assessing the flood risk in Scotland.

PubMed

Black, Andrew R; Burns, John C

2002-07-22

This paper presents a review of changes in flood risk estimation on Scottish rivers resulting from re-analysis of flood records or from the application of new methods. The review arises at a time when flood damages have received recent prominence through the occurrence of a number of extreme floods in Scotland, and when the possible impacts of climate change on flood risk are receiving considerable attention. An analysis of the nine longest available peaks-over-threshold (POT) flood series for Scottish rivers reveals that, for thresholds yielding two events per year on average, annual POT frequencies on western rivers have increased in the 1980s/1990s to maximum recorded values, while in the east, values were highest in the 1950s/1960s. These results support the results of flood modelling work based on rainfall and temperature records from the 1870s, which indicate that, in western catchments, annual POT frequencies in the 1980s/1990s are unprecedented. No general trends in flood magnitude series were found, but an unexpected cluster of extreme floods is identified as having occurred since 1988, resulting in eight of Scotland's 16 largest gauged rivers producing their maximum recorded flows since then. These shifts are related to recent increases in the dominance of westerly airflows, share similarities with the results of climate change modelling, and collectively point to increases in flood risk in many parts of Scotland. The paper also reviews advances in flood risk estimation arising from the publication of the UK Flood Estimation Handbook, developments in the collection and use of historic flood estimation and the production of maps of 100-year flood areal extent. Finally the challenges in flood risk estimation posed by climate change are examined, particularly in relation to the assumption of stationarity.

More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in the Pearl River basin, China, since 1951 and over the past 1000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Sun, Peng

2018-05-01

Flood risks across the Pearl River basin, China, were evaluated using a peak flood flow dataset covering a period of 1951-2014 from 78 stations and historical flood records of the past 1000 years. The generalized extreme value (GEV) model and the kernel estimation method were used to evaluate frequencies and risks of hazardous flood events. Results indicated that (1) no abrupt changes or significant trends could be detected in peak flood flow series at most of the stations, and only 16 out of 78 stations exhibited significant peak flood flow changes with change points around 1990. Peak flood flow in the West River basin increased and significant increasing trends were identified during 1981-2010; decreasing peak flood flow was found in coastal regions and significant trends were observed during 1951-2014 and 1966-2014. (2) The largest three flood events were found to cluster in both space and time. Generally, basin-scale flood hazards can be expected in the West and North River basins. (3) The occurrence rate of floods increased in the middle Pearl River basin but decreased in the lower Pearl River basin. However, hazardous flood events were observed in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, and this is particularly true for the past 100 years. However, precipitation extremes were subject to moderate variations and human activities, such as building of levees, channelization of river systems, and rapid urbanization; these were the factors behind the amplification of floods in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, posing serious challenges for developing measures of mitigation of flood hazards in the lower Pearl River basin, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.

Nonstationary frequency analysis for the trivariate flood series of the Weihe River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Cong; Xiong, Lihua

2016-04-01

Some intensive human activities such as water-soil conservation can significantly alter the natural hydrological processes of rivers. In this study, the effect of the water-soil conservation on the trivariate flood series from the Weihe River located in the Northwest China is investigated. The annual maxima daily discharge, annual maxima 3-day flood volume and annual maxima 5-day flood volume are chosen as the study data and used to compose the trivariate flood series. The nonstationarities in both the individual univariate flood series and the corresponding antecedent precipitation series generating the flood events are examined by the Mann-Kendall trend test. It is found that all individual univariate flood series present significant decreasing trend, while the antecedent precipitation series can be treated as stationary. It indicates that the increase of the water-soil conservation land area has altered the rainfall-runoff relationship of the Weihe basin, and induced the nonstationarities in the three individual univariate flood series. The time-varying moments model based on the Pearson type III distribution is applied to capture the nonstationarities in the flood frequency distribution with the water-soil conservation land area introduced as the explanatory variable of the flood distribution parameters. Based on the analysis for each individual univariate flood series, the dependence structure among the three univariate flood series are investigated by the time-varying copula model also with the water-soil conservation land area as the explanatory variable of copula parameters. The results indicate that the dependence among the trivariate flood series is enhanced by the increase of water-soil conservation land area.

Magnitude and frequency of Iowa floods, Part two

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwob, Harlan H.

1966-01-01

Floqd records fo.r regular and partial-record gaging stations are contained in the following pages. Each listing contains the station number .and name, descriptive paragraphs pertaining to the station, qnd a listing of the flood peaks available through the 1965 water year. Peaks above a base as well as annual peaks are listed. These provide the data for a partial-duration flood-frequency curve. Most of the material is self-explan~tory and needs no discussion. However, a few items may be made clearer by the brief explanation which follows. 

Transportation and Hydrology Studies of the U.S. Geological Survey in New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2016-03-23

In New England, the USGS is conducting investigations to improve flood flow estimation techniques, to define channel characteristics at bankfull discharge, and to document storm tide as a result of major coastal storms. Current locally focused investigations include examination of flow frequency in rural, urban, and small watersheds; documentation of extreme inland floods along with flood-frequency updates; examination of the effects of roadway blasting on groundwater quality; and determinations of the effects of road salting on the quality of runoff and receiving waters.

On the stationarity of Floods in west African rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NKA, B. N.; Oudin, L.; Karambiri, H.; Ribstein, P.; Paturel, J. E.

2014-12-01

West Africa undergoes a big change since the years 1970-1990, characterized by very low precipitation amounts, leading to low stream flows in river basins, except in the Sahelian region where the impact of human activities where pointed out to justify the substantial increase of floods in some catchments. More recently, studies showed an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events, and according to observations made over the region, increase of flood events is also noticeable during the rainy season. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity on flood events is questionable and the reliability of flood evolution and climatic patterns is justified. In this work, we analyzed the trends of floods events for several catchments in the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of Burkina Faso. We used thirteen tributaries of large river basins (Niger, Nakambe, Mouhoun, Comoé) for which daily rainfall and flow data were collected from national hydrological and meteorological services of the country. We used Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests to detect trends and break points in the annual time series of 8 rainfall indices and the annual maximum discharge records. We compare the trends of precipitation indices and flood size records to analyze the possible causality link between floods size and rainfall pattern. We also analyze the stationary of the frequency of flood exceeding the ten year return period level. The samples were extracted by a Peak over threshold method and the quantification of change in flood frequency was assessed by using a test developed by Lang M. (1995). The results exhibit two principal behaviors. Generally speaking, no trend is detected on catchments annual maximum discharge, but positive break points are pointed out in a group of three right bank tributaries of the Niger river that are located in the sahelian region between 300mm to 650mm. These same catchments show as well an increase of the yearly number of flood greater than the ten year flood since 1980. However, there is no consistency between rain fall pattern and flood size pattern in the entire region.

Variation in flood tolerance of container-grown seedlings of swamp white oak, bur oak, and white oak

Treesearch

Michael P. Walsh; J.W. Van Sambeek; Mark V. Coggeshall

2008-01-01

How much variation in flood tolerance exists among seedlings within oak species, given the flood frequency of sites from which acorns are collected, has been largely unexplored. Our studies examined initial growth and flood tolerance for seedlings of swamp white oak (Quercus bicolor Willd.), bur oak (Q. macrocarpa L.), and white...

Frequency assessment of spatially distributed generations of flood scenarios: an application on Italian territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lomazzi, M.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R.; Taramasso, A. C.; Ghizzoni, T.; Benedetti, R.; Espa, G.; Terpessi, C.

2009-12-01

The flooding risk impact on society cannot be understated: it influences land use and territorial planning and development at both physical and regulatory levels. To cope with it, a variety of actions can be put in place, involving multidisciplinary competences. Mitigation measures goes from the improvement of monitoring systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection and insurance plans. All of those options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - scenarios, i.e. quantitative event descriptions in terms of i) the flood hazard, with its probability of occurrence, extension, intensity, and duration, ii) the exposed values and iii) their vulnerability. At present, initial attention has been devoted to the design of flood scenarios, or ensembles of them, and to the evaluation of their frequency of occurrence. In the present work, a model for spatially distributed flood scenarios generation and frequency assessment is proposed and applied to the Italian territory. The study area has been divided into homogeneous regions according to their hydrologic, orographic and meteoclimatic characteristics. A statistical model for flood scenarios simulation has been implemented throughout a conditional approach based on MCMC simulations by using i) a historical flood events catalogue; ii) a homogeneous regions correlation matrix; and iii) an auxiliary variables data set. In this framework, the role of the information stored in the historical flood events catalogue "Aree Vulnerate Italiane" (AVI, http://avi.gndci.cnr.it/), produced by the Italian National Research Council, is of crucial importance.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble

PubMed Central

Dankers, Rutger; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Falloon, Pete D.; Fekete, Balázs M.; Gosling, Simon N.; Heinke, Jens; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20–45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5–30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies. PMID:24344290

Preliminary evaluation of flood frequency relations in the urban areas of Memphis, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boning, Charles W.

1977-01-01

A storm-runoff relation for streams in the urban areas of Memphis was determined by a statistical evaluation of 59 flood discharges from 19 gaging stations. These flood discharges were related to drainage area, percent imperviousness of the drainage basin, and rainfall occuring over 120-minute periods. The defined relation is Q=m3A*777A - .02 tI,,,,P + 1j-227 (1120).539(t120).40 where Q is flood discharge in cfs, A is drainage area in square miles, IMP is percent imperviousness in the basin, and I120 is rainfall in inches, over 120 minute time period. The defined relation was used to synthesize sets of annual flood peaks for drainage basins ranging from .05 square miles to 10 square miles and imperviousness ranging from 0 to 80 percent for the period of rainfall record at Memphis. From these series of flood peaks, frequency relations were defined and presented for 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 year recurrent intervals.

Avian nest box selection and nest success in burned and unburned southwestern riparian forests

Treesearch

D. Max Smith; Jeffrey F. Kelly; Deborah M. Finch

2007-01-01

Riparian forest communities in the southwestern United States were historically structured by a disturbance regime of annual flooding. In recent decades, however, frequency of flooding has decreased and frequency of wildfires has increased. Riparian forests provide important breeding habitat for a large variety of bird species, and the effects of this altered...

Statistical summaries of streamflow data for selected gaging stations on and near the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Idaho, through September 1990

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, M.A.J.; Mann, Larry J.; Kjelstrom, L.C.

1993-01-01

Statistical summaries and graphs of streamflow data were prepared for 13 gaging stations with 5 or more years of continuous record on and near the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Statistical summaries of streamflow data for the Big and Little Lost Rivers and Birch Creek were analyzed as a requisite for a comprehensive evaluation of the potential for flooding of facilities at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The type of statistical analyses performed depended on the length of streamflow record for a gaging station. Streamflow statistics generated for stations with 5 to 9 years of record were: (1) magnitudes of monthly and annual flows; (2) duration of daily mean flows; and (3) maximum, median, and minimum daily mean flows. Streamflow statistics generated for stations with 10 or more years of record were: (1) magnitudes of monthly and annual flows; (2) magnitudes and frequencies of daily low, high, instantaneous peak (flood frequency), and annual mean flows; (3) duration of daily mean flows; (4) exceedance probabilities of annual low, high, instantaneous peak, and mean annual flows; (5) maximum, median, and minimum daily mean flows; and (6) annual mean and mean annual flows.

The Incidence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder After Floods: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Long; Liu, Aizhong

2015-06-01

This study analyzes the incidence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among flood victims, between different flood intensities, and between different time points after a flood. A search of several electronic literature databases was conducted to collect data on the incidence of PTSD after a flood. Loney criteria for research quality were used to evaluate the quality of selected search results. The combined incidence of PTSD was estimated using the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation method. Subgroup analyses were conducted on different trauma intensities and different time points after a flood. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of research quality. Fourteen articles were included in this meta-analysis, including a total of 40 600 flood victims; 3862 victims were diagnosed with PTSD. The combined incidence of PTSD was 15.74%. The subgroup analyses showed that the incidence of PTSD in victims who experienced severe and moderate flood intensity was higher than that in victims who experienced mild flood intensity. The incidence of PTSD was lower at 6 or more months after a flood (11.45%) than within 6 months (16.01%) of a flood. In conclusion, the incidence of PTSD among floods of different trauma intensities was statistically significant.

Impacts of Non-Stationarity in Climate on Flood Intensity-Duration-Frequency: Case Studies in Mountainous Areas with Snowmelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Ren, H.; Sun, N.; Leung, L. R.; Liu, Y.; Coleman, A. M.; Skaggs, R.; Wigmosta, M. S.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic engineering design usually involves intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analysis for calculating runoff from a design storm of specified precipitation frequency and duration using event-based hydrologic rainfall-runoff models. Traditionally, the procedure assumes climate stationarity and neglects snowmelt-driven runoff contribution to floods. In this study, we used high resolution climate simulations to provide inputs to the physics-based Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to determine the spatially distributed precipitation and snowmelt available for runoff. Climate model outputs were extracted around different mountainous field sites in Colorado and California. IDF curves were generated at each numerical grid of DHSVM based on the simulated precipitation, temperature, and available water for runoff. Quantitative evaluation of trending and stationarity tests were conducted to identify (quasi-)stationary time periods for reliable IDF analysis. The impact of stationarity was evaluated by comparing the derived IDF attributes with respect to time windows of different length and level of stationarity. Spatial mapping of event return-period was performed for various design storms, and spatial mapping of event intensity was performed for given duration and return periods. IDF characteristics were systematically compared (historical vs RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5) using annual maximum series vs partial duration series data with the goal of providing reliable IDF analyses to support hydrologic engineering design.

Emergency room visits for acute gastrointestinal illness following flooding: A case-crossover study

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change may alter the frequency of precipitation and flooding which can increase fecal-oral transmission of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) through contact with contaminated items or water. Few studies have quantified the risk associated with flood events in the Unite...

Proteomic and Biochemical Analyses of the Cotyledon and Root of Flooding-Stressed Soybean Plants

PubMed Central

Komatsu, Setsuko; Makino, Takahiro; Yasue, Hiroshi

2013-01-01

Background Flooding significantly reduces the growth and grain yield of soybean plants. Proteomic and biochemical techniques were used to determine whether the function of cotyledon and root is altered in soybean under flooding stress. Results Two-day-old soybean plants were flooded for 2 days, after which the proteins from root and cotyledon were extracted for proteomic analysis. In response to flooding stress, the abundance of 73 and 28 proteins was significantly altered in the root and cotyledon, respectively. The accumulation of only one protein, 70 kDa heat shock protein (HSP70) (Glyma17g08020.1), increased in both organs following flooding. The ratio of protein abundance of HSP70 and biophoton emission in the cotyledon was higher than those detected in the root under flooding stress. Computed tomography and elemental analyses revealed that flooding stress decreases the number of calcium oxalate crystal the cotyledon, indicating calcium ion was elevated in the cotyledon under flooding stress. Conclusion These results suggest that calcium might play one role through HSP70 in the cotyledon under flooding stress. PMID:23799004

Site-specific estimation of peak-streamflow frequency using generalized least-squares regression for natural basins in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, R.M.

1999-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, has developed a computer program to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged sites in natural basins in Texas. Peak-streamflow frequency refers to the peak streamflows for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed by planners, managers, and design engineers for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of roads and bridges; and also for the desin of culverts, dams, levees, and other flood-control structures. The program estimates peak-streamflow frequency using a site-specific approach and a multivariate generalized least-squares linear regression. A site-specific approach differs from a traditional regional regression approach by developing unique equations to estimate peak-streamflow frequency specifically for the ungaged site. The stations included in the regression are selected using an informal cluster analysis that compares the basin characteristics of the ungaged site to the basin characteristics of all the stations in the data base. The program provides several choices for selecting the stations. Selecting the stations using cluster analysis ensures that the stations included in the regression will have the most pertinent information about flooding characteristics of the ungaged site and therefore provide the basis for potentially improved peak-streamflow frequency estimation. An evaluation of the site-specific approach in estimating peak-streamflow frequency for gaged sites indicates that the site-specific approach is at least as accurate as a traditional regional regression approach.

Abundance of wind scorpions (Solifugae: Eremobatidae) in riparian forests disturbed by grazing, fire, and flood in Central New Mexico, USA

Treesearch

D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch

2011-01-01

Historically, flood was the primary disturbance structuring riparian plant and animal communities in the southwestern United States. In many areas, however, livestock grazing and wildfire occur more frequently than flooding. Research has shown that changes in flood and fire frequency affect the composition of riparian surface-active arthropod communities (Bess et al....

Evaluating relationships between natural resource management, land use changes, and flooding in the Appalachian region

Treesearch

Nicolas P. Zegre; Samuel J. Lamont

2013-01-01

Th e Appalachian Region has a long history of natural resource management and recurrent history of frequent and large-scale floods. Land use activities such as urbanization, mining, forest harvesting, and agriculture can have a noticeable effect on the volume, magnitude, timing, and frequency of floods. Determining the effects of land use on flooding is difficult for...

The impact of late Holocene climatic variability and land use change on the flood hydrology of the Guadalentín River, southeast Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benito, G.; Rico, M.; Sánchez-Moya, Y.; Sopeña, A.; Thorndycraft, V. R.; Barriendos, M.

2010-02-01

The Guadalentín River, located in southeast Spain, is considered one of the most torrential rivers in Spain, as indicated by catastrophic events such as the 1879 flood that caused 777 fatalities in the Murcia region. In this paper, flood frequency and magnitude of the upper Guadalentín River were reconstructed using geomorphological evidence, combined with one-dimensional hydraulic modelling and supported by records from documentary sources at Lorca in the lower Guadalentín catchment. Palaeoflood studies were conducted along a 2.5-km reach located at the confluence of the Rambla Mayor (162 km 2) and Caramel River (210 km 2). These tributaries join at the entrance of a narrow bedrock canyon, carved in Cretaceous limestone, which is 15-30 m wide and 40 m deep. Six stratigraphic profiles were described, the thickest and most complete corresponding to flood benches deposited upstream of the canyon constriction. The stratigraphic and documentary records identify five main phases of increased flood frequency. Phase 1, based on sedimentary palaeoflood evidence alone, occurred at c. AD 950-1200 with at least ten floods with minimum discharge estimates of 15-580 m 3 s - 1 . Phases 2-5, identified through combined sedimentary and documentary evidence occurred at: (a) AD 1648-1672, with eight documentary floods and two palaeofloods exceeding 580-680 m 3 s - 1 (most probably the AD 1651 and 1653 events); (b) AD 1769-1802, comprising seven documentary floods, of which at least two events (> 250 m 3 s - 1 ) are preserved in the sedimentary record; (c) AD 1830-1840, with four documentary floods, and at least two events recorded in the stratigraphy (760-1035 m 3 s - 1 ); and finally (d) the AD 1877-1900 period that witnessed seven documentary floods, with three palaeofloods exceeding 880 m 3 s - 1 . The palaeoflood and historical flood information indicate an anomalous increase in the frequency of large magnitude floods between AD 1830 and 1900, which can be attributed to climatic variability accentuated by intensive deforestation and land use practices during the first decades of the nineteenth century.

Actionable Science for Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding to Help Avoid Maladaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, M. K.

2017-12-01

Rising sea levels increase the frequency of flooding at all levels, from nuisance to extreme, along coastlines across the world. Although recent flooding has increased the saliency of sea level rise (SLR) and the risks it presents to governments and communities, the effect of SLR on coastal hazards is complex and filled with uncertainty that is often uncomfortable for decision-makers. Although it is certain that SLR is occurring and will continue, its rate remains ambiguous. Because extreme flooding is by definition rare, there is also uncertainty in the effect of natural variability on flood frequency. These uncertainties pose methodological obstacles for integrating SLR into flood hazard projections and risk management. A major challenge is how to distill this complexity into information geared towards public sectors to help inform adaptation decision-making. Because policy windows are limited, budgets are tight, and decisions may have long-term consequences, it is especially important that this information accounts for uncertainty to help avoid damage and maladaptation. The U.S. Global Research Program, and others, describe this type of science—data and tools that help decision-makers plan for climate change impacts—as actionable [1]. We produce actionable science to support decision-making for adaptation to coastal impacts, despite uncertainty in projections of SLR and flood frequency. We found that SLR will boost the occurrence of minor rather than severe flooding in some regions of the U.S., while in other regions the reverse is true. For many cities, the current ten-year flood level will become a regular occurrence as the century progresses and by 2100 will occur every few days for some cities. This creates a mismatch with current planning in some cases. For example, a costly storm surge barrier may be built to protect parts of New York City from extreme flood levels but these are not often used because they are expensive to operate and obstructive to navigation and ecological systems. The current 10-yr flood will become a nuisance flood in the future and large episodic protection may not be especially helpful. [1] Beier, Paul, et al. "A How-to Guide for Coproduction of Actionable Science." Conservation Letters (2016).

Large-scale derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

There is an increasing need for spatially consistent flood risk assessments at the regional scale (several 100.000 km2), in particular in the insurance industry and for national risk reduction strategies. However, most large-scale flood risk assessments are composed of smaller-scale assessments and show spatial inconsistencies. To overcome this deficit, a large-scale flood model composed of a weather generator and catchments models was developed reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The weather generator is a multisite and multivariate stochastic model capable of generating synthetic meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, etc.) at daily resolution for the regional scale. These fields respect the observed autocorrelation, spatial correlation and co-variance between the variables. They are used as input into catchment models. A long-term simulation of this combined system enables to derive very long discharge series at many catchment locations serving as a basic for spatially consistent flood risk estimates at the regional scale. This combined model was set up and validated for major river catchments in Germany. The weather generator was trained by 53-year observation data at 528 stations covering not only the complete Germany but also parts of France, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Australia with the aggregated spatial scale of 443,931 km2. 10.000 years of daily meteorological fields for the study area were generated. Likewise, rainfall-runoff simulations with SWIM were performed for the entire Elbe, Rhine, Weser, Donau and Ems catchments. The validation results illustrate a good performance of the combined system, as the simulated flood magnitudes and frequencies agree well with the observed flood data. Based on continuous simulation this model chain is then used to estimate flood quantiles for the whole Germany including upstream headwater catchments in neighbouring countries. This continuous large scale approach overcomes the several drawbacks reported in traditional approaches for the derived flood frequency analysis and therefore is recommended for large scale flood risk case studies.

Swift delineation of flood-prone areas over large European regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavares da Costa, Ricardo; Castellarin, Attilio; Manfreda, Salvatore; Samela, Caterina; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Mazzoli, Paolo; Luzzi, Valerio; Bagli, Stefano

2017-04-01

According to the European Environment Agency (EEA Report No 1/2016), a significant share of the European population is estimated to be living on or near a floodplain, with Italy having the highest population density in flood-prone areas among the countries analysed. This tendency, tied with event frequency and magnitude (e.g.: the 24/11/2016 floods in Italy) and the fact that river floods may occur at large scales and at a transboundary level, where data is often sparse, presents a challenge in flood-risk management. The availability of consistent flood hazard and risk maps during prevention, preparedness, response and recovery phases are a valuable and important step forward in improving the effectiveness, efficiency and robustness of evidence-based decision making. The present work aims at testing and discussing the usefulness of pattern recognition techniques based on geomorphologic indices (Manfreda et al., J. Hydrol. Eng., 2011, Degiorgis et al., J Hydrol., 2012, Samela et al., J. Hydrol. Eng., 2015) for the simplified mapping of river flood-prone areas at large scales. The techniques are applied to 25m Digital Elevation Models (DEM) of the Danube, Po and Severn river watersheds, obtained from the Copernicus data and information funded by the European Union - EU-DEM layers. Results are compared to the Pan-European flood hazard maps derived by Alfieri et al. (Hydrol. Proc., 2013) using a set of distributed hydrological (LISFLOOD, van der Knijff et al., Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 2010, employed within the European Flood Awareness System, www.efas.eu) and hydraulic models (LISFLOOD-FP, Bates and De Roo, J. Hydrol., 2000). Our study presents different calibration and cross-validation exercises of the DEM-based mapping algorithms to assess to which extent, and with which accuracy, they can be reproduced over different regions of Europe. This work is being developed under the System-Risk project (www.system-risk.eu) that received funding from the European Union's Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020 under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No. 676027. Keywords: flood hazard, data-scarce regions, large-scale studies, pattern recognition, linear binary classifiers, basin geomorphology, DEM.

Effect of catchment properties and flood generation regime on copula selection for bivariate flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filipova, Valeriya; Lawrence, Deborah; Klempe, Harald

2018-02-01

Applying copula-based bivariate flood frequency analysis is advantageous because the results provide information on both the flood peak and volume. More data are, however, required for such an analysis, and it is often the case that only data series with a limited record length are available. To overcome this issue of limited record length, data regarding climatic and geomorphological properties can be used to complement statistical methods. In this paper, we present a study of 27 catchments located throughout Norway, in which we assess whether catchment properties, flood generation processes and flood regime have an effect on the correlation between flood peak and volume and, in turn, on the selection of copulas. To achieve this, the annual maximum flood events were first classified into events generated primarily by rainfall, snowmelt or a combination of these. The catchments were then classified into flood regime, depending on the predominant flood generation process producing the annual maximum flood events. A contingency table and Fisher's exact test were used to determine the factors that affect the selection of copulas in the study area. The results show that the two-parameter copulas BB1 and BB7 are more commonly selected in catchments with high steepness, high mean annual runoff and rainfall flood regime. These findings suggest that in these types of catchments, the dependence structure between flood peak and volume is more complex and cannot be modeled effectively using a one-parameter copula. The results illustrate that by relating copula types to flood regime and catchment properties, additional information can be supplied for selecting copulas in catchments with limited data.

The Effect of Disaster on the Health and Well-Being of Older Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

International Journal of Aging and Human Development, 1986

1986-01-01

Compared post-disaster health status and well-being of 122 elderly female victims of major flood with status of 45 controls. Significant differences were found in self-perceptions, including state of mind after the flood and frequency of thinking about the flood matters. (Author/NRB)

Flood characteristics of Oklahoma streams techniques for calculating magnitude and frequency of floods in Oklahoma, with compilations of flood data through 1971

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.

1974-01-01

The 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods are related to basin and climatic parameters for natural streams in Oklahoma by multiple regression techniques through the mathematical model, Qx=aAbScPd,where Qx is peak discharge for recurrence interval x, A is contributing drainage area, S is main channel slope, P is mean annual precipitation, and a, b, c, and d are regression constants and coefficients. One equation for each recurrence interval applies statewide for all natural streams of less than 2,500 mil (6,500 km2), except where manmade works, such as dams, flood-detention structures, levees, channelization, and urban development, appreciably affect flood runoff. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency of a stream at an ungaged site if drainage area size, main channel slope, and mean annual precipitation are known. At or near gaged sites, a weighted average of the regression results and the gaging station data is recommended.Individual relations of flood magnitude to contributing drainage area are given for all or parts of the main stems of the Arkansas, Salt Fork Arkansas, Cimarron, North Canadian, Canadian, Washita, North Fork Red, and Red Rivers. Parts of some of these streams, and all of the Neosho and Verdigris Rivers are not included because the effects of. major regulation from large reservoirs cannot be evaluated within the scope of the report. Graphical relations of maximum floods of record for eastern and western Oklahoma provide a guide to maximum probable floods. A random sampling of the seasonal occurrence of floods indicated about two-thirds of all annual floods in Oklahoma occur during. April through July. Less than one-half of one percent of annual floods occur in December. A compilation of flood records at all gaging sites in Oklahoma and some selected sites in adjacent States is given in an appendix. Basin and climatic parameters and log-Pearson Type III frequency data and statistics are given for most station records. A second appendix gives a reprint of the U.S. Water Resources Council Bulletin 15 which describes procedures for fitting a log-Pearson Type III distribution to gaging station data.

Large Scale Flood Risk Analysis using a New Hyper-resolution Population Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Wing, O.

2017-12-01

Here we present the first national scale flood risk analyses, using high resolution Facebook Connectivity Lab population data and data from a hyper resolution flood hazard model. In recent years the field of large scale hydraulic modelling has been transformed by new remotely sensed datasets, improved process representation, highly efficient flow algorithms and increases in computational power. These developments have allowed flood risk analysis to be undertaken in previously unmodeled territories and from continental to global scales. Flood risk analyses are typically conducted via the integration of modelled water depths with an exposure dataset. Over large scales and in data poor areas, these exposure data typically take the form of a gridded population dataset, estimating population density using remotely sensed data and/or locally available census data. The local nature of flooding dictates that for robust flood risk analysis to be undertaken both hazard and exposure data should sufficiently resolve local scale features. Global flood frameworks are enabling flood hazard data to produced at 90m resolution, resulting in a mis-match with available population datasets which are typically more coarsely resolved. Moreover, these exposure data are typically focused on urban areas and struggle to represent rural populations. In this study we integrate a new population dataset with a global flood hazard model. The population dataset was produced by the Connectivity Lab at Facebook, providing gridded population data at 5m resolution, representing a resolution increase over previous countrywide data sets of multiple orders of magnitude. Flood risk analysis undertaken over a number of developing countries are presented, along with a comparison of flood risk analyses undertaken using pre-existing population datasets.

Factors related to the joint probability of flooding on paired streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.; Sherwood, J.M.

1998-01-01

The factors related to the joint probabilty of flooding on paired streams were investigated and quantified to provide information to aid in the design of hydraulic structures where the joint probabilty of flooding is an element of the design criteria. Stream pairs were considered to have flooded jointly at the design-year flood threshold (corresponding to the 2-, 10-, 25-, or 50-year instantaneous peak streamflow) if peak streamflows at both streams in the pair were observed or predicted to have equaled or exceeded the threshold on a given calendar day. Daily mean streamflow data were used as a substitute for instantaneous peak streamflow data to determine which flood thresholds were equaled or exceeded on any given day. Instantaneous peak streamflow data, when available, were used preferentially to assess flood-threshold exceedance. Daily mean streamflow data for each stream were paired with concurrent daily mean streamflow data at the other streams. Observed probabilities of joint flooding, determined for the 2-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year flood thresholds, were computed as the ratios of the total number of days when streamflows at both streams concurrently equaled or exceeded their flood thresholds (events) to the total number of days where streamflows at either stream equaled or exceeded its flood threshold (trials). A combination of correlation analyses, graphical analyses, and logistic-regression analyses were used to identify and quantify factors associated with the observed probabilities of joint flooding (event-trial ratios). The analyses indicated that the distance between drainage area centroids, the ratio of the smaller to larger drainage area, the mean drainage area, and the centroid angle adjusted 30 degrees were the basin characteristics most closely associated with the joint probabilty of flooding on paired streams in Ohio. In general, the analyses indicated that the joint probabilty of flooding decreases with an increase in centroid distance and increases with increases in drainage area ratio, mean drainage area, and centroid angle adjusted 30 degrees. Logistic-regression equations were developed, which can be used to estimate the probability that streamflows at two streams jointly equal or exceed the 2-year flood threshold given that the streamflow at one of the two streams equals or exceeds the 2-year flood threshold. The logistic-regression equations are applicable to stream pairs in Ohio (and border areas of adjacent states) that are unregulated, free of significant urban influences, and have characteristics similar to those of the 304 gaged stream pairs used in the logistic-regression analyses. Contingency tables were constructed and analyzed to provide information about the bivariate distribution of floods on paired streams. The contingency tables showed that the percentage of trials in which both streams in the pair concurrently flood at identical recurrence-interval ranges generally increased as centroid distances decreased and was greatest for stream pairs with adjusted centroid angles greater than or equal to 60 degrees and drainage area ratios greater than or equal to 0.01. Also, as centroid distance increased, streamflow at one stream in the pair was more likely to be in a less than 2-year recurrence-interval range when streamflow at the second stream was in a 2-year or greater recurrence-interval range.

Hydraulic analysis of Chenango River, Broome County, New York in relation to state highway plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunn, Bernard

1981-01-01

Hydraulic analyses of the 50- and 100-year floods in a 3.2 mile reach of the Chenango River in the towns of Fenton and Chenango in New York were made to determine the effects of two alternative bridge designs on flood levels. Neither design would cause more than a 0.1-foot increase in water level of the 50-year flood nor more than a 0.2-foot increase in water level of the 100-year flood above levels that would occur during these floods under present channel conditions. The discharges used in the analyses were 55,200 cubic feet per second for the 50-year flood and 63,000 cubic feet per second for the 100-year flood. Mean flow velocities and water-surface elevations at 17 cross sections are given for both bridge designs and are compared with those that would occur under present conditions. (USGS)

Data for floods of May 1978 in northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Carlson, D.D.; Craig, G.S.; Hull, J.A.

1978-01-01

Severe flooding in northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana in May 1978 is described by tables of data, graphs, and photographs. Flood peaks were determined at 162 sites in the flooded area. At most of the sites, peak discharges were determined from existing stage-discharge relationship curves, and at 30 of the sites indirect flow measurements were made. At 19 sites, the May 1978 peak discharge exceeded the previous peak of record and also exceeded the computed 100-year frequency flood. (Woodard-USGS)

Assessing inundation hazards to nuclear powerplant sites using geologically extended histories of riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connor, Jim; Atwater, Brian F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Cronin, Thomas M.; Keith, Mackenzie K.; Smith, Christopher G.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

2014-01-01

A screening of the 104 nuclear powerplants in the United States licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (at 64 sites) indicates several sites for which paleoflood studies likely would provide additional flood-frequency information. Two sites—Duane Arnold, Iowa, on the Cedar River; and David-Besse, Ohio, on the Toussaint River—have geologic conditions suitable for creating and preserving stratigraphic records of flooding and few upstream dams that may complicate flood-frequency analysis. One site—Crystal River, Florida1, on the Withlacoochee River and only 4 kilometers from the coast—has high potential as a candidate for assessing riverine and marine inundation hazards. Several sites on the Mississippi River have high geologic potential, but upstream dams almost certainly now regulate peak flows. Nevertheless, studies on the Mississippi River to evaluate long-term flood frequency may provide results applicable to a wide spectrum of regional hazard issues. Several sites in the southeastern United States have high geologic potential, and studies at these sites also may be helpful in evaluating hazards from outburst floods from landslide dams (river blockages formed by mass movements), which may be a regional hazard. For all these sites, closer investigation and field reconnaissance would be needed to confirm suitable deposits and settings for a complete paleoflood analysis. Similar screenings may help identify high-potential sites for geologic investigations of tsunami and storm-surge hazards.

Pluvial, urban flood mechanisms and characteristics - Assessment based on insurance claims

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sörensen, Johanna; Mobini, Shifteh

2017-12-01

Pluvial flooding is a problem in many cities and for city planning purpose the mechanisms behind pluvial flooding are of interest. Previous studies seldom use insurance claim data to analyse city scale characteristics that lead to flooding. In the present study, two long time series (∼20 years) of flood claims from property owners have been collected and analysed in detail to investigate the mechanisms and characteristics leading to urban flooding. The flood claim data come from the municipal water utility company and property owners with insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls and flooding from the drainage system. These data are used as a proxy for flood severity for several events in the Swedish city of Malmö. It is discussed which rainfall characteristics give most flooding and why some rainfall events do not lead to severe flooding, how city scale topography and sewerage system type influence spatial distribution of flood claims, and which impact high sea level has on flooding in Malmö. Three severe flood events are described in detail and compared with a number of smaller flood events. It was found that the main mechanisms and characteristics of flood extent and its spatial distribution in Malmö are intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall, distance to the main sewer system as well as overland flow paths, and type of drainage system, while high sea level has little impact on the flood extent. Finally, measures that could be taken to lower the flood risk in Malmö, and other cities with similar characteristics, are discussed.

Characterization of bed load discharge in unsteady flow events in an ephemeral channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halfi, Eran

2017-04-01

There are many methods and equations for estimating bedload flux in steady flow conditions. Yet, very little is known about the effect of very unsteady flows, such as flash floods, on bedload flux. The unpredictable nature of the floods together with many logistic difficulties and safety issues in monitoring explain this gap in knowledge. Global climate change may increase flood event occurrence, making their understanding even more crucial. This research focuses on two durations of flash floods where the flow is most rapidly changing: a) flash flood bore arriving on dry river bed and b) flash flood bore arriving on a column of moving water. The methodology of our study is based on the demonstrated ability of the Eshtemoa gauging station to automatically monitor the variation of bedload flux depending on flow and bed characteristics, along with innovative equipment including hydrophones and geophones for capturing acoustic signals of bedload sediments (1 Hz), video cameras for continuous monitoring of water surface velocity (by the LSPIV method to determine its structure and velocity) and 3-D velocimetry for characterizing turbulence (40 Hz). Additional to these, a well-planned deployment was carried out, including alerting sensors and cellular transmission, enabling to be onsite when bores arrive. During the winter of 2015-2016 two flow events were sufficiently large to transport significant amounts of bedload; the magnitude of the larger event occurs once in a few years. Calibration between the acoustic indirect sensor and the direct slot sampler allow determination of bedload flux at a frequency of 1 Hz. Analyses of the two events indicate an increase of the turbulent nature (increase of the turbulent kinetic energy and the instantaneous vertical velocities), shear stress and bedload flux during the rising limb in the first two minutes of bore arrival.

Spatial Scaling of Floods in Atlantic Coastal Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plank, C.

2013-12-01

Climate and land use changes are altering global, regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, past events may not accurately represent the events that will occur in the future. Methods for hydrologic prediction, both statistical and deterministic, require adequate data for calibration. Streamflow gauges tend to be located on large rivers. As a result, statistical flood frequency analysis, which relies on gauge data, is biased towards large watersheds. Conversely, the complexity of parameterizing watershed processes in deterministic hydrological models limits these to small watersheds. Spatial scaling relationships between drainage basin area and discharge can be used to bridge these two methodologies and provide new approaches to hydrologic prediction. The relationship of discharge (Q) to drainage basin area (A) can be expressed as a power function: Q = αAθ. This study compares scaling exponents (θ) and coefficients (α) for floods of varying magnitude across a selection of major Atlantic Coast watersheds. Comparisons are made by normalizing flood discharges to a reference area bankfull discharge for each watershed. These watersheds capture the geologic and geomorphic transitions along the Atlantic Coast from narrow bedrock-dominated river valleys to wide coastal plain watersheds. Additionally, there is a range of hydrometeorological events that cause major floods in these basins including tropical storms, thunderstorm systems and winter-spring storms. The mix of flood-producing events changes along a gradient as well, with tropical storms and hurricanes increasing in dominance from north to south as a significant cause of major floods. Scaling exponents and coefficients were determined for both flood quantile estimates (e.g. 1.5-, 10-, 100-year floods) and selected hydrometeorological events (e.g. hurricanes, summer thunderstorms, winter-spring storms). Initial results indicate that southern coastal plain watersheds have lower scaling exponents (θ) than northern watersheds. However, the relative magnitudes of 100-year and other large floods are higher in the coastal plain rivers. In the transition zone between northern and southern watersheds, basins like the Potomac in the Mid-Atlantic region have similar scaling exponents as northern river basins, but relative flood magnitudes comparable to the southern coastal plain watersheds. These differences reflect variations in both geologic/geomorphic and climatic settings. Understanding these variations are important to appropriately using these relationships to improve flood risk models and analyses.

Methods for determining magnitude and frequency of floods in California, based on data through water year 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.; Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Parrett, Charles

2012-01-01

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in California that are not substantially affected by regulation or diversions have been updated. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2006 were analyzed for 771 streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) in California having 10 or more years of data. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the flood-frequency analysis, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low outliers. Special methods for fitting the distribution were developed for streamgages in the desert region in southeastern California. Additionally, basin characteristics for the streamgages were computed by using a geographical information system. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins in California that are outside of the southeastern desert region. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 630 streamgages were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. Five hydrologic regions were developed for the area of California outside of the desert region. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area and mean annual precipitation for four of the five regions. In one region, the Sierra Nevada region, the final equations are functions of drainage area, mean basin elevation, and mean annual precipitation. Average standard errors of prediction for the regression equations in all five regions range from 42.7 to 161.9 percent. For the desert region of California, an analysis of 33 streamgages was used to develop regional estimates of all three parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skew) of the log-Pearson Type III distribution. The regional estimates were then used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area. Average standard errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 214.2 to 856.2 percent. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2006 were analyzed for eight streamgages in California having 10 or more years of data considered to be affected by urbanization. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the urban streamgages by fitting a Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage. Regression analysis could not be used to develop flood-frequency estimation equations for urban streams because of the limited number of sites. Flood-frequency estimates for the eight urban sites were graphically compared to flood-frequency estimates for 630 non-urban sites. The regression equations developed from this study will be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats program. The StreamStats program is a Web-based application that provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for USGS streamgages and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats can also compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in California.

Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Schopp, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Methodologies were developed for estimating flood magnitudes at the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals for unregulated or slightly regulated streams in New Jersey. Regression equations that incorporate basin characteristics were developed to estimate flood magnitude and frequency for streams throughout the State by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. Relations between flood-frequency estimates based on streamflow-gaging-station discharge and basin characteristics were determined by multiple regression analysis, and weighted by effective years of record. The State was divided into five hydrologically similar regions to refine the regression equations. The regression analysis indicated that flood discharge, as determined by the streamflow-gaging-station annual peak flows, is related to the drainage area, main channel slope, percentage of lake and wetland areas in the basin, population density, and the flood-frequency region, at the 95-percent confidence level. The standard errors of estimate for the various recurrence-interval floods ranged from 48.1 to 62.7 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2007 and basin characteristics determined using geographic information system techniques for 254 streamflow-gaging stations were used for the regression analysis. Drainage areas of the streamflow-gaging stations range from 0.18 to 779 mi2. Peak-flow data and basin characteristics for 191 streamflow-gaging stations located in New Jersey were used, along with peak-flow data for stations located in adjoining States, including 25 stations in Pennsylvania, 17 stations in New York, 16 stations in Delaware, and 5 stations in Maryland. Streamflow records for selected stations outside of New Jersey were included in the present study because hydrologic, physiographic, and geologic boundaries commonly extend beyond political boundaries. The StreamStats web application was developed cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., and was designed for national implementation. This web application has been recently implemented for use in New Jersey. This program used in conjunction with a geographic information system provides the computation of values for selected basin characteristics, estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies, and statistics for stream locations in New Jersey chosen by the user, whether the site is gaged or ungaged.

A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London.

PubMed

Jenkins, Katie; Hall, Jim; Glenis, Vassilis; Kilsby, Chris

2018-06-01

Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Classification of mechanisms, climatic context, areal scaling, and synchronization of floods: the hydroclimatology of floods in the Upper Paraná River basin, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Lall, Upmanu

2017-12-01

Floods are the main natural disaster in Brazil, causing substantial economic damage and loss of life. Studies suggest that some extreme floods result from a causal climate chain. Exceptional rain and floods are determined by large-scale anomalies and persistent patterns in the atmospheric and oceanic circulations, which influence the magnitude, extent, and duration of these extremes. Moreover, floods can result from different generating mechanisms. These factors contradict the assumptions of homogeneity, and often stationarity, in flood frequency analysis. Here we outline a methodological framework based on clustering using self-organizing maps (SOMs) that allows the linkage of large-scale processes to local-scale observations. The methodology is applied to flood data from several sites in the flood-prone Upper Paraná River basin (UPRB) in southern Brazil. The SOM clustering approach is employed to classify the 6-day rainfall field over the UPRB into four categories, which are then used to classify floods into four types based on the spatiotemporal dynamics of the rainfall field prior to the observed flood events. An analysis of the vertically integrated moisture fluxes, vorticity, and high-level atmospheric circulation revealed that these four clusters are related to known tropical and extratropical processes, including the South American low-level jet (SALLJ); extratropical cyclones; and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Persistent anomalies in the sea surface temperature fields in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are also found to be associated with these processes. Floods associated with each cluster present different patterns in terms of frequency, magnitude, spatial variability, scaling, and synchronization of events across the sites and subbasins. These insights suggest new directions for flood risk assessment, forecasting, and management.

Regional L-Moment-Based Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upper Vistula River Basin, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, A.; Żelazny, M.; Kohnová, S.; Łyp, M.; Banasik, K.

2017-02-01

The Upper Vistula River basin was divided into pooling groups with similar dimensionless frequency distributions of annual maximum river discharge. The cluster analysis and the Hosking and Wallis (HW) L-moment-based method were used to divide the set of 52 mid-sized catchments into disjoint clusters with similar morphometric, land use, and rainfall variables, and to test the homogeneity within clusters. Finally, three and four pooling groups were obtained alternatively. Two methods for identification of the regional distribution function were used, the HW method and the method of Kjeldsen and Prosdocimi based on a bivariate extension of the HW measure. Subsequently, the flood quantile estimates were calculated using the index flood method. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the generalised least squares (GLS) regression techniques were used to relate the index flood to catchment characteristics. Predictive performance of the regression scheme for the southern part of the Upper Vistula River basin was improved by using GLS instead of OLS. The results of the study can be recommended for the estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites, in flood risk mapping applications, and in engineering hydrology to help design flood protection structures.

Quantification of Uncertainty in the Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasiapillai Sudalaimuthu, K.; He, J.; Swami, D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is usually carried out for planning and designing of water resources and hydraulic structures. Owing to the existence of variability in sample representation, selection of distribution and estimation of distribution parameters, the estimation of flood quantile has been always uncertain. Hence, suitable approaches must be developed to quantify the uncertainty in the form of prediction interval as an alternate to deterministic approach. The developed framework in the present study to include uncertainty in the FFA discusses a multi-objective optimization approach to construct the prediction interval using ensemble of flood quantile. Through this approach, an optimal variability of distribution parameters is identified to carry out FFA. To demonstrate the proposed approach, annual maximum flow data from two gauge stations (Bow river at Calgary and Banff, Canada) are used. The major focus of the present study was to evaluate the changes in magnitude of flood quantiles due to the recent extreme flood event occurred during the year 2013. In addition, the efficacy of the proposed method was further verified using standard bootstrap based sampling approaches and found that the proposed method is reliable in modeling extreme floods as compared to the bootstrap methods.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in western Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, David Dell; Hubbard, Larry L.; Hubbard, Lawrence E.

1979-01-01

A method for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods is presented for unregulated streams in western Oregon. Equations relating flood magnitude to basin characteristics were developed for exceedance probabilities of 0.5 to 0.01 (2- to 100-year recurrence intervals). Separate equations are presented for four regions: Coast, Willamette, Rogue-Umpqua, and High Cascades. Also presented are values of flood discharges for selected exceedance probabilities and of basin characteristics for all gaging stations used in the analysis. Included are data for 230 stations in Oregon, 6 stations in southwestern Washington, and 3 stations in northwestern California. Drainage areas used in the analysis range from 0.21 to 7,280 square miles. Also included are maximum discharges for all western Oregon stations used in the analysis. (Woodard-USGS)

Sea level variability influencing coastal flooding in the Swan River region, Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliot, Matt

2012-02-01

Coastal flooding refers to the incidence of high water levels produced by water level fluctuations of marine origin, rather than riverine floods. An understanding of the amplitude and frequency of high water level events is essential to foreshore management and the design of many coastal and estuarine facilities. Coastal flooding events generally determine public perception of sea level phenomena, as they are commonly associated with erosion events. This investigation has explored the nature of coastal flooding events affecting the Swan River Region, Western Australia, considering water level records at four sites in the estuary and lower river, extending from the mouth of the Swan River to 40 km upstream. The analysis examined the significance of tides, storms and mean sea level fluctuations over both seasonal and inter-annual time scales. The relative timing of these processes is significant for the enhanced or reduced frequency of coastal flooding. These variations overlie net sea level rise previously reported from the coastal Fremantle record, which is further supported by changes to the distribution of high water level events at an estuarine tidal station. Seasonally, coastal flooding events observed in the Swan River region are largely restricted to the period from May to July due to the relative phases of the annual mean sea fluctuation and biannual tidal cycle. Although significant storm surge events occur outside this period, their impact is normally reduced, as they are superimposed on lower tidal and mean sea level conditions. Over inter-annual time scales tide, storminess and mean sea level produce cycles of enhanced and depressed frequency of coastal flooding. For the Swan River region, the inter-annual tidal variation is regular, dominated by the 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle. Storminess and mean sea level variations are independent and irregular, with cycles from 3 to 10 year duration. Since 1960, these fluctuations have not occurred in phase, suggesting that recent historic records may not provide a real indication of inundation risk, exclusive of factors linked to climate change. The burst-like nature of coastal flooding incidents, with respect to frequency, has implications for both public perception and coastal management effort. The result, when combined with sea level rise, produces step-like change, with short periods of frequent coastal flooding, followed by extended, slowly varying quiescent periods. This presents challenges for coastal managers to incorporate variability into projections of future management needs, and to ensure that public and political recognition of coastal flooding hazard is not downplayed during quiet periods.

Two-station comparison of peak flows to improve flood-frequency estimates for seven streamflow-gaging stations in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins, Central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles

2003-01-01

Improved flood-frequency estimates for short-term (10 or fewer years of record) streamflow-gaging stations were needed to support instream flow studies by the U.S. Forest Service, which are focused on quantifying water rights necessary to maintain or restore productive fish habitat. Because peak-flow data for short-term gaging stations can be biased by having been collected during an unusually wet, dry, or otherwise unrepresentative period of record, the data may not represent the full range of potential floods at a site. To test whether peak-flow estimates for short-term gaging stations could be improved, the two-station comparison method was used to adjust the logarithmic mean and logarithmic standard deviation of peak flows for seven short-term gaging stations in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins, central Idaho. Correlation coefficients determined from regression of peak flows for paired short-term and long-term (more than 10 years of record) gaging stations over a concurrent period of record indicated that the mean and standard deviation of peak flows for all short-term gaging stations would be improved. Flood-frequency estimates for seven short-term gaging stations were determined using the adjusted mean and standard deviation. The original (unadjusted) flood-frequency estimates for three of the seven short-term gaging stations differed from the adjusted estimates by less than 10 percent, probably because the data were collected during periods representing the full range of peak flows. Unadjusted flood-frequency estimates for four short-term gaging stations differed from the adjusted estimates by more than 10 percent; unadjusted estimates for Little Slate Creek and Salmon River near Obsidian differed from adjusted estimates by nearly 30 percent. These large differences probably are attributable to unrepresentative periods of peak-flow data collection.

How extreme was the October 2015 flood in the Carolinas? An assessment of flood frequency analysis and distribution tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. C.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M. E.

2018-07-01

This paper examines the frequency, distribution tails, and peak-over-threshold (POT) of extreme floods through analysis that centers on the October 2015 flooding in North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC), United States (US). The most striking features of the October 2015 flooding were a short time to peak (Tp) and a multi-hour continuous flood peak which caused intensive and widespread damages to human lives, properties, and infrastructure. The 2015 flooding was produced by a sequence of intense rainfall events which originated from category 4 hurricane Joaquin over a period of four days. Here, the probability distribution and distribution parameters (i.e., location, scale, and shape) of floods were investigated by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of the annual maximum flood (AMF) and POT with light- to heavy- theoretical tails: Fréchet, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, Beta, and Exponential. Specifically, four sets of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging data from the central Carolinas with record lengths from approximately 65-125 years were used. Analysis suggests that heavier-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the POT and somewhat AMF data than more often used exponential (light) tailed probability distributions. Further, the threshold selection and record length affect the heaviness of the tail and fluctuations of the parent distributions. The shape parameter and its evolution in the period of record play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response to intense rainfall.

Does antecedent precipitation play a role for floods in (small) Swiss catchments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froidevaux, Paul; Schwanbeck, Jan; Weingartner, Rolf; Chevalier, Clément; Romppainen-Martius, Olivia

2014-05-01

River flooding is one of the most devastating natural hazards worldwide. In Switzerland, like in many other regions, the building of flood protection infrastructures is complicated by difficulties in assessing flood risk due to: - The large year-to-year variability in flood losses. The variations amount to several orders of magnitude (see for ex. Hilker et al., 2009). - The non-stationarity of the flood risk at longer time scales. A pronounced decadal variability in flood risk has been observed by Schmocker-Fackel and Naef (2010) and Köplin et al. (2013) show that climate change will induce diverse and complex regional changes in flood risk. A better understanding of flood processes is therefore required in order to better predict changes in flood frequency. It has been hypothesized that flood frequency variations are linked to changes in the atmospheric circulation. Consequently, the whole mechanism chain starting from atmospheric circulation patterns triggering severe precipitation weather and ending with extreme river discharge must be considered. In a step in that direction we characterize precipitation events that triggered observed annual maximum discharges at 120 discharge stations during the last 53 years in Switzerland. The precipitation dataset is a temporally-homogeneous complex interpolation of daily rain gauge data on a 1 by 1 km grid covering the Swiss territory (MeteoSwiss, 2011). We test the relationship between different catchment-averaged precipitation indices and flood occurrence. We explicitly separate antecedent and event-associated precipitation. The preliminary results show that antecedent precipitation (weekly to monthly sums ending 3 days before the event) are no significant flood predictors for most of the catchments. On the other hand, a very strong signal is found for the 1-3 days precipitation sums. Lessons for flood modeling in Swiss catchments is that a strong effort is required in order to represent the flood-associated weather events correctly over a 1-3 day period -particularly the precipitation amounts- whereas antecedent precipitation is not a necessary precondition for flood building. In that sense, flood processes in Switzerland might contrast with extreme drought processes for which longer term precipitation statistics are expected to be important. Hilker, N., A. Badoux, and C. Hegg. 2009. The swiss flood and landslide damage database 1972-2007. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9, 913-925. Schmocker-Fackel, P., and F. Naef. 2010. More frequent flooding? changes in flood frequency in switzerland since 1850. Journal of hydrology 381, 1-8. 1,3 Köplin, N., Schädler, B., Viviroli, D. and Weingartner, R. 2013. Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change. Hydrol. Process.. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9757 MeteoSwiss. 2011. Documentation of meteoswiss grid-data products. daily precipitation (final analysis): Rhiresd. available online at http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/web/de/services/datenportal/gitterdaten/precip.html.

Analysis of alternative modifications for reducing backwater flooding at the Honey Creek coal strip-mine reclamation site in Henry County, Missouri. Water Resources Investigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alexander, T.W.

Studies to determine the hydrologic conditions in mined and reclaimed mine areas, as well as areas of proposed mining, have become necessary with the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act of 1977. Honey Creek in Henry County, Missouri, has been re-routed to flow through a series of former strip mining pits which lie within the Honey Creek coal strip mine reclamation site. During intense or long duration rainfalls within the Honey Creek basin, surface runoff has caused flooding on agricultural land near the upstream boundary of the reclamation site. The calculated existing design discharge (3,050 cubic feetmore » per second) water-surface profile is compared to the expected water-surface profiles from three assumed alternative channel modifcations within the Honey Creek study area. The alternative channel modifications used in these analyses include (1) improvement of channel bottom slope, (2) relocation of spoil material, and (3) improved by-pass channel flow conditions. The alternative 1, 2, and 3 design discharge increase will reduce the agricultural field current (1990) frequency of backwater flooding from a 3-year to a 6.5-year event.« less

Flood Frequency Analysis For Partial Duration Series In Ganjiang River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

zhangli, Sun; xiufang, Zhu; yaozhong, Pan

2016-04-01

Accurate estimation of flood frequency is key to effective, nationwide flood damage abatement programs. The partial duration series (PDS) method is widely used in hydrologic studies because it considers all events above a certain threshold level as compared to the annual maximum series (AMS) method, which considers only the annual maximum value. However, the PDS has a drawback in that it is difficult to define the thresholds and maintain an independent and identical distribution of the partial duration time series; this drawback is discussed in this paper. The Ganjiang River is the seventh largest tributary of the Yangtze River, the longest river in China. The Ganjiang River covers a drainage area of 81,258 km2 at the Wanzhou hydrologic station as the basin outlet. In this work, 56 years of daily flow data (1954-2009) from the Wanzhou station were used to analyze flood frequency, and the Pearson-III model was employed as the hydrologic probability distribution. Generally, three tasks were accomplished: (1) the threshold of PDS by percentile rank of daily runoff was obtained; (2) trend analysis of the flow series was conducted using PDS; and (3) flood frequency analysis was conducted for partial duration flow series. The results showed a slight upward trend of the annual runoff in the Ganjiang River basin. The maximum flow with a 0.01 exceedance probability (corresponding to a 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) was 20,000 m3/s, while that with a 0.1 exceedance probability was 15,000 m3/s. These results will serve as a guide to hydrological engineering planning, design, and management for policymakers and decision makers associated with hydrology.

Floods of Selected Streams in Arkansas, Spring 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funkhouser, Jaysson E.; Eng, Ken

2009-01-01

Floods can cause loss of life and extensive destruction to property. Monitoring floods and understanding the reasons for their occurrence are the responsibility of many Federal agencies. The National Weather Service, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Geological Survey are among the most visible of these agencies. Together, these three agencies collect and analyze floodflow information to better understand the variety of mechanisms that cause floods, and how the characteristics and frequencies of floods vary with time and location. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has monitored and assessed the quantity of streamflow in our Nation's streams since the agency's inception in 1879. Because of ongoing collection and assessment of streamflow data, the USGS can provide information about a range of surface-water issues including the suitability of water for public supply and irrigation and the effects of agriculture and urbanization on streamflow. As part of its streamflow-data collection activities, the USGS measured streamflow in multiple streams during extreme flood events in Arkansas in the spring of 2008. The analysis of streamflow information collected during flood events such as these provides a scientific basis for decision making related to resource management and restoration. Additionally, this information can be used by water-resource managers to better define flood-hazard areas and to design bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures. Water levels (stage) and streamflow (discharge) currently are being monitored in near real-time at approximately 150 locations in Arkansas. The streamflow-gaging stations measure and record hydrologic data at 15-minute or hourly intervals; the data then are transmitted through satellites to the USGS database and displayed on the internet every 1 to 4 hours. Streamflow-gaging stations in Arkansas are part of a network of over 7,500 active streamflow-gaging stations operated by the USGS throughout the United States in cooperation with other Federal, State, and local government agencies. In Arkansas, the major supporters of the streamflow-gaging network are the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality, and Arkansas Geological Survey. Many other Federal, State, and local government entities provide additional support for streamflow-gaging stations. It is the combined support of the USGS and all funding partners that make it possible to maintain an adequate streamflow-gaging network in Arkansas. Data collected over the years at streamflow-gaging stations can be used to characterize the relative magnitude of flood events and their statistical frequency of occurrence. These analyses provide water-resource managers with accurate and reliable hydrologic information based on present and historical flow conditions. Continued collection of streamflow data, with consideration of changes in land use, agricultural practices, and climate change, will help scientists to more accurately characterize the magnitude of extreme floods in the future.

Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude with a warming climate. These changes are likely to increase flooding damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections from 2...

Public Policy and Private Enterprise in the Development of Flood Plains: A Laboratory Exercise in Physical Geography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nunnally, Nelson R.; And Others

1974-01-01

This activity is designed to introduce college students to the concept of floods as natural hazards, to flood frequency analysis, to hazard adjustment, and to the mechanics of public policy formulation through a six hour laboratory exercise, culminating in a simulation game. (JH)

Flood type specific construction of synthetic design hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Manuela I.; Viviroli, Daniel; Sikorska, Anna E.; Vannier, Olivier; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Seibert, Jan

2017-02-01

Accurate estimates of flood peaks, corresponding volumes, and hydrographs are required to design safe and cost-effective hydraulic structures. In this paper, we propose a statistical approach for the estimation of the design variables peak and volume by constructing synthetic design hydrographs for different flood types such as flash-floods, short-rain floods, long-rain floods, and rain-on-snow floods. Our approach relies on the fitting of probability density functions to observed flood hydrographs of a certain flood type and accounts for the dependence between peak discharge and flood volume. It makes use of the statistical information contained in the data and retains the process information of the flood type. The method was tested based on data from 39 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland and provides catchment specific and flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs for all of these catchments. We demonstrate that flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs are meaningful in flood-risk management when combined with knowledge on the seasonality and the frequency of different flood types.

Hydrologic data for urban studies in the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area, 1979

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liscum, Fred; Weigel, Jay F.; Bruchmiller, J.P.

1982-01-01

Hydrologic investigations of urban watersheds in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. Studies are now in progress in Austin, Houston, and San Antonio.The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Houston, began studies in the Houston metropolitan area in 1964. The program was expanded in 1968 to include collection of water-quality data. The objectives of the Houston urban-hydrology study are as follows:To determine, on the basis of historical data and hydro!ogic analyses, the magnitude and frequency of flood peaks and flood volumes.To determine the effect of urban development on flood peaks and volumes.To ascertain the variation in water quality for different flow conditions and different seasons.This report, the sixteenth in a series of reports to be published annually, is primarily applicable to objective 2. The report presents hydro!ogic data collected in the Houston urban area for the 1979 water year (October 1, 1978 to September 30, 1979).A report by Johnson and Sayre (1973) utilized records collected from 1965 to 1969 to make a study of the effects of urbanization on floods in the Houston area. The report also summarizes various basin parameters. A report by Waddell, Massey, and Jennings (1979) presents data on computed runoff from the Houston area and computed concentrations and loads of selected waterquality constituents combined in the inflow to Galveston Bay. The study utilized a variation of the "STORM" model developed by the Hydro!ogic Engineering Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. A report prepared by Li scum and Massey (1980) presents a technique for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in the Houston area from drainage areas, bank-full conveyance, and percentage of urban development.A definition of terms related to streamflow, water quality, and other hydrologic data, as used in this report, are defined in "U.S. Geological Survey, Water-resources data for Texas, volume 2, 1979."To facilitate the publication and distribution of this report at the earliest feasible time, some material has been included that does not conform to the formal publications standards of the U.S. Geological Survey. 

Experimental Study on Oil Displacement Mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pi, Yanfu; Shao, Hongzhi; Pi, Yanming; Liu, Li

2018-02-01

In this work, the objective is enhancing oil recovery in offshore heavy oil after polymer flooding. The heterogeneous physical model is especially designed for oil fields with heavy oil. The comparative study of the two displacement experiments was carried out, and the experimental data was compared and analysed. The comparison between scheme one and scheme two was analysed from the production curve. The patterns of cores are analysed and compared with each other. It was found that the oil in the high permeability layer and medium permeability layer had been widely removed in the stage of binary combination flooding. There was a high degree of use in the low permeability layer. The recovery ratio is 66.29%. After polymer flooding, the addition of binary combination flooding in the heavy oil reservoir can greatly enhance oil recovery.

Natural hazards and climate change in Dhaka: future trends, social adaptation and informal dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiele-Eich, I.; Aßheuer, T.; Simmer, C.; Braun, B.

2009-04-01

Similar to many megacities in the world, Dhaka is regularly threatened by natural hazards. Risks associated with floods and cyclones in particular are expected to increase in the years to come because of global climate change and rapid urbanization. Greater Dhaka is expected to grow from 13.5 million inhabitants in 2007 to 22 million inhabitants by 2025. The vast majority of this growth will take place in informal settlements. Due to the setting of Greater Dhaka in a deltaic plain, the sprawl of slums is primarily taking place in wetlands, swamps and other flood-prone areas. Slum dwellers and informal businesses are vulnerable, but have somehow learned to cope with seasonal floods and developed specific adaptation strategies. An increase of precipitation extremes and tropical cyclones, however, would put considerable stress on the adaptability of the social and economic system. DhakaHazard, a joint research project of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Bonn and the Department of Geography at the University of Cologne, takes up these issues in an interdisciplinary approach. The project, which begun in November 2008, aims to achieve two main objectives: To link analyses of informal social and economic adaptation strategies to models on future climate change and weather extremes. To estimate more accurately the future frequency and magnitude of weather extremes and floods which are crucial for the future adaptability of informal systems. To fulfill these objectives, scientists at the Meteorological Institute are studying the evolution of natural hazards in Bangladesh, while researchers at the Department of Geography are undertaking the task of assessing these hazards from a social point of view. More specifically, the meteorologists are identifying global and regional weather conditions resulting in flooding of the Greater Dhaka region, while possible variations in flood-inducing weather patterns are analyzed by evaluating their frequency and magnitude. Findings are then applied to future global climate scenario runs to obtain a first estimate of trends for the frequency and magnitude of weather extremes and their impact on spatial and temporal characteristics of floods in the Greater Dhaka region. From this estimate, a prediction method for the spatial patterns of flooding within the Dhaka area will be developed. The social part of the project analyzes the vulnerability and resilience of economic and social systems within high-risk areas by utilizing methods such as e.g. quantitative household surveys in Dhaka and qualitative expert interviews. Geographers are hoping to identify adaptation and recovery strategies of slum dwellers and informal businesses (e.g. brickfields, tanneries), analyze the role of social capital as well as formal and informal institutions for building up resilience, and analyze possibilities and limits of adaptation strategies under conditions of further urban growth and climate change. By paying attention to the important behavioral patterns of the informal sector, a meteorological early warning system can then be developed to make better use of weather predictions to mitigate weather-related risks for Greater Dhaka. If successful, this project poses as an exemplary intersection of social science and natural hazards research.

The near real time Forensic Disaster Analysis of the central European flood in June 2013 - A graphical representation of the main results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Elmer, Florian; Trieselmann, Werner; Kreibich, Heidi; Kunz, Michael; Khazai, Bijan; Dransch, Doris; Wenzel, Friedemann; Zschau, Jochen; Merz, Bruno; Mühr, Bernhard; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Möhrle, Stella; Bessel, Tina; Fohringer, Joachim

2014-05-01

The Central European flood of June 2013 is one of the most severe flood events that have occurred in Central Europe in the past decades. All major German river basins were affected (Rhine, Danube, and Elbe as well as the smaller Weser catchment).In terms of spatial extent and event magnitude, it was the most severe event at least since 1950. Within the current research focus on near real time forensic disaster analysis, the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) assessed and analysed the multiple facets of the flood event from the beginning. The aim is to describe the on-going event, analyse the event sources, link the physical characteristics to the impact and consequences of the event and to understand the root causes that turn the physical event into a disaster (or prevent it from becoming disastrous). For the near real time component of this research, tools for rapid assessment and concise presentation of analysis results are essential. This contribution provides a graphical summary of the results of the CEDIM-FDA analyses on the June 2013 flood. It demonstrates the potential of visual representations for improving the communication and hence usability of findings in a rapid, intelligible and expressive way as a valuable supplement to usual event reporting. It is based on analyses of the hydrometeorological sources, the flood pathways (from satellite imagery, data extraction from social media), the resilience of the affected regions, and causal loss analysis. The prototypical representation of the FDA-results for the June 2013 flood provides an important step in the development of graphical event templates for the visualisation of forensic disaster analyses. These are intended to become a standard component of future CEDIM-FDA event activities.

A physically based analytical model of flood frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basso, S.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-09-01

Predicting magnitude and frequency of floods is a key issue in hydrology, with implications in many fields ranging from river science and geomorphology to the insurance industry. In this paper, a novel physically based approach is proposed to estimate the recurrence intervals of seasonal flow maxima. The method links the extremal distribution of streamflows to the stochastic dynamics of daily discharge, providing an analytical expression of the seasonal flood frequency curve. The parameters involved in the formulation embody climate and landscape attributes of the contributing catchment and can be estimated from daily rainfall and streamflow data. Only one parameter, which is linked to the antecedent wetness condition in the watershed, needs to be calibrated on the observed maxima. The performance of the method is discussed through a set of applications in four rivers featuring heterogeneous daily flow regimes. The model provides reliable estimates of seasonal maximum flows in different climatic settings and is able to capture diverse shapes of flood frequency curves emerging in erratic and persistent flow regimes. The proposed method exploits experimental information on the full range of discharges experienced by rivers. As a consequence, model performances do not deteriorate when the magnitude of events with return times longer than the available sample size is estimated. The approach provides a framework for the prediction of floods based on short data series of rainfall and daily streamflows that may be especially valuable in data scarce regions of the world.

Disastrous torrential floods in mountain areas in Serbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilovic, Z.

2009-04-01

In Serbia, the relief is predominantly hilly and mountainous, intersected with numerous rivers. The greatest number of watercourses are small torrents; however the proportionally large rivers also have a distinctive torrential character. The highest parts of the catchments are at the altitudes above 1500 m, while their confluences are at the altitudes of 200 - 300 m. The catchment and channel slopes are extremely steep. So, as the initial natural preconditions are satisfied, torrential floods are the consequence. Although the Južna Morava catchments were regulated by erosion control works, during the last decades there were numerous torrential floods. Some of the floods had disastrous proportions, not recorded in Serbia or in Europe. The flood of river Vlasina in 1988 was presented to the professional public several times. This flood was not an isolated case. Many large-scale torrential floods occurred in Serbia from 1994 to 2007. As there were floods also in 2007, the causes of the recorded floods had to be analysed. The analysis pointed out a series of scenarios which were the causes of disastrous torrential floods, and also the disadvantages of the actual system of torrent and erosion control. Special attention was focused on the floods which resulted from sudden snow melting. This paper will present the results of the analyses of the extreme torrential floods of the rivers Nišava and Vlasina. Key words: Flood, torrents, torrent control, erosion control

Change in the Magnitude of River Flooding in the United States, 1965-2015

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This figure shows changes in the size and frequency of flooding events in rivers and streams in the United States between 1965 and 2015. Blue upward-pointing symbols show locations where floods have become larger; brown downward-pointing symbols show locations where floods have become smaller. Data were analyzed by Louise Slater and Gabriele Villarini at the University of Iowa. For more information: www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators

Assessing the impact of climate change on flood types in the Austrian and French Alps using the stochastic weather generator TripleM and rainfall-runoff modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breinl, Korbinian; Turkington, Thea

2017-04-01

We developed a new methodology for classifying flood types, which appears to be particularly suitable for climate change impact studies. Climate change is not only expected to change the magnitude and frequency of Alpine floods but also the types of floods. The distribution of existing flood types may change and new flood types may develop. A shift away from solely focusing on the magnitude and frequency of floods in flood hazard assessment and disaster risk management towards the causal types of floods is required as the types and therefore also timing and characteristics of floods will have implications on both the local social and ecological systems. The flood types are classified using k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation indicators, capturing differences in rainfall amounts, antecedent rainfall, snow-cover, and the day of the year. In a first step, we used the open-source multi-site weather generator TripleM coupled with the fast conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV to extrapolate the observed discharge time series and generate a large inventory of different types of observed flood events and flood types. The weather generator was then parameterized based on projections of rainfall and temperature to simulate future flood types and events. We selected four climate projections (mild dry, mild wet, warm dry and warm wet conditions) from a set of 15, which originated from the EURO-CORDEX dataset. We worked in two catchments in the Austrian and French Alps that have been affected by floods in the past: the medium-sized Salzach catchment in Austria, which is dominated by rainfall driven flooding during the summer and autumn period, and the small Ubaye catchment in the Southern French Alps, which is dominated by rain-on-snow floods in the spring period. The analysis of the simulated future flood types shows clear changes in the distribution and characteristics of flood types in both study areas under the different climate projections examined.

High-magnitude flooding across Britain since AD 1750

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macdonald, Neil; Sangster, Heather

2017-03-01

The last decade has witnessed severe flooding across much of the globe, but have these floods really been exceptional? Globally, relatively few instrumental river flow series extend beyond 50 years, with short records presenting significant challenges in determining flood risk from high-magnitude floods. A perceived increase in extreme floods in recent years has decreased public confidence in conventional flood risk estimates; the results affect society (insurance costs), individuals (personal vulnerability) and companies (e.g. water resource managers). Here, we show how historical records from Britain have improved understanding of high-magnitude floods, by examining past spatial and temporal variability. The findings identify that whilst recent floods are notable, several comparable periods of increased flooding are identifiable historically, with periods of greater frequency (flood-rich periods). Statistically significant relationships between the British flood index, the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index are identified. The use of historical records identifies that the largest floods often transcend single catchments affecting regions and that the current flood-rich period is not unprecedented.

Insect emergence in relation to floods in wet meadows and swamps in the River Dalälven floodplain.

PubMed

Vinnersten, T Z Persson; Östman, Ö; Schäfer, M L; Lundström, J O

2014-08-01

Annual variation in flood frequency and hydroperiod during the vegetation season has ecological impacts on the floodplain biota. Although many insect groups may have a lower emergence during a flood event, it is poorly known how annual emergence of insects in temporary wetlands is related to the variation in hydrology. Between May and September, we studied the weekly emergence of 18 insect taxa over six consecutive years, 2002-2007, in six temporary flooded wetlands (four wet meadows and two forest swamps) in the River Dalälven floodplains, Central Sweden. We used emergence traps to collect emerging insects from terrestrial and aquatic parts of wet meadows and swamp forests. In all wetlands, the insect fauna was numerically dominated by the orders Diptera, Hymenoptera, Coleoptera and Homoptera. On a weekly basis, 9 out of the 18 insect taxa had lower emergence in weeks with flood than in weeks with no flood, whereas no taxon had a higher emergence in weeks with flood. Over the seasons, we related insect emergence to seasonal flood frequency and length of hydroperiod. The emergence of most studied taxa decreased with increasing hydroperiod, which suggests that emergence after floods do not compensate for the reduced emergence during floods. Only Culicidae and the aquatic Chironomidae sub-families Tanypodinae and Chironominae showed an increase in emergence with increasing hydroperiod, whereas Staphylinidae peaked at intermediate hydroperiod. We conclude that a hydroperiod covering up to 40% of the vegetation season has a significant negative effect on the emergence of most taxa and that only a few taxa occurring in the temporary wetlands are actually favoured by a flood regime with recurrent and unpredictable floods.

Going with the flow: Hydrologic response of middle Lena River (Siberia) to the climate variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautier, Emmanuèle; Dépret, Thomas; Costard, François; Virmoux, Clément; Fedorov, Alexander; Grancher, Delphine; Konstantinov, Pavel; Brunstein, Daniel

2018-02-01

Recent observations indicate that over the last decades, climate change has increasingly influenced the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme climatic and hydrologic events. The main aim of this study is to determine the hydrologic response, especially the flood evolution, of the Lena River in Eastern Siberia to ongoing climate change. Draining the coldest region of the Northern Hemisphere, the Lena River is impacted by global warming, which is particularly pronounced in periglacial areas characterized by deep and continuous permafrost. We document the hydrologic variability of the Middle Lena River, first by characterizing trend and stationarity of monthly discharges. Second, we analyze on the basis of the peak over threshold method (POT) the temporal evolution of intensity and duration of three discharge classes: bar-full discharge, bank-full discharge and large floods. Finally, we also determined the dates of the flood beginning and of the flood peak. Data on mean monthly discharge and flood peaks are available since 1936 and daily discharges since 1954. Our results provide evidence for a net hydrologic change with an increase in the intensity and duration of floods in the two decades ending in 2012. The frequency of high floods is unprecedented, and small floods no longer occur. The tail of the temporal distribution of the flood peak is also changing. More frequent early floods are occurring in spring with secondary flood peaks in summer, the latest probably represents the most striking change. Furthermore, the changes have been accelerating since 2004. Finally, two islands were instrumented (2008-2012) in order to study the flooding dynamics with a better precision.

Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, Cameron; Gutmann, Ethan; Jones, Russell; Rissing, Matthew; Mizukami, Naoki; Lorie, Mark; Mahoney, Hardee; Wood, Andrew W.; Mills, David; Martinich, Jeremy

2017-12-01

A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

Modeling tools for the assessment of microbiological risks during floods: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collender, Philip; Yang, Wen; Stieglitz, Marc; Remais, Justin

2015-04-01

Floods are a major, recurring source of harm to global economies and public health. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events under future climate change, coupled with continued urbanization in areas with high risk of floods, may exacerbate future impacts of flooding. Improved flood risk management is essential to support global development, poverty reduction and public health, and is likely to be a crucial aspect of climate change adaptation. Importantly, floods can facilitate the transmission of waterborne pathogens by changing social conditions (overcrowding among displaced populations, interruption of public health services), imposing physical challenges to infrastructure (sewerage overflow, reduced capacity to treat drinking water), and altering fate and transport of pathogens (transport into waterways from overland flow, resuspension of settled contaminants) during and after flood conditions. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models are capable of generating quantitative characterizations of microbiological risks associated with flooding, while accounting for these diverse and at times competing physical and biological processes. Despite a few applications of such models to the quantification of microbiological risks associated with floods, there exists limited guidance as to the relative capabilities, and limitations, of existing modeling platforms when used for this purpose. Here, we review 17 commonly used flood and water quality modeling tools that have demonstrated or implicit capabilities of mechanistically representing and quantifying microbial risk during flood conditions. We compare models with respect to their capabilities of generating outputs that describe physical and microbial conditions during floods, such as concentration or load of non-cohesive sediments or pathogens, and the dynamics of high flow conditions. Recommendations are presented for the application of specific modeling tools for assessing particular flood-related microbial risks, and model improvements are suggested that may better characterize key microbial risks during flood events. The state of current tools are assessed in the context of a changing climate where the frequency, intensity and duration of flooding are shifting in some areas.

Study on reservoir time-varying design flood of inflow based on Poisson process with time-dependent parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiqing; Huang, Jing; Li, Jianchang

2018-06-01

The time-varying design flood can make full use of the measured data, which can provide the reservoir with the basis of both flood control and operation scheduling. This paper adopts peak over threshold method for flood sampling in unit periods and Poisson process with time-dependent parameters model for simulation of reservoirs time-varying design flood. Considering the relationship between the model parameters and hypothesis, this paper presents the over-threshold intensity, the fitting degree of Poisson distribution and the design flood parameters are the time-varying design flood unit period and threshold discriminant basis, deduced Longyangxia reservoir time-varying design flood process at 9 kinds of design frequencies. The time-varying design flood of inflow is closer to the reservoir actual inflow conditions, which can be used to adjust the operating water level in flood season and make plans for resource utilization of flood in the basin.

Flood susceptibility mapping using novel ensembles of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system and metaheuristic algorithms.

PubMed

Razavi Termeh, Seyed Vahid; Kornejady, Aiding; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Keesstra, Saskia

2018-02-15

Flood is one of the most destructive natural disasters which cause great financial and life losses per year. Therefore, producing susceptibility maps for flood management are necessary in order to reduce its harmful effects. The aim of the present study is to map flood hazard over the Jahrom Township in Fars Province using a combination of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) with different metaheuristics algorithms such as ant colony optimization (ACO), genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) and comparing their accuracy. A total number of 53 flood locations areas were identified, 35 locations of which were randomly selected in order to model flood susceptibility and the remaining 16 locations were used to validate the models. Learning vector quantization (LVQ), as one of the supervised neural network methods, was employed in order to estimate factors' importance. Nine flood conditioning factors namely: slope degree, plan curvature, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), distance from river, land use/land cover, rainfall, and lithology were selected and the corresponding maps were prepared in ArcGIS. The frequency ratio (FR) model was used to assign weights to each class within particular controlling factor, then the weights was transferred into MATLAB software for further analyses and to combine with metaheuristic models. The ANFIS-PSO was found to be the most practical model in term of producing the highly focused flood susceptibility map with lesser spatial distribution related to highly susceptible classes. The chi-square result attests the same, where the ANFIS-PSO had the highest spatial differentiation within flood susceptibility classes over the study area. The area under the curve (AUC) obtained from ROC curve indicated the accuracy of 91.4%, 91.8%, 92.6% and 94.5% for the respective models of FR, ANFIS-ACO, ANFIS-GA, and ANFIS-PSO ensembles. So, the ensemble of ANFIS-PSO was introduced as the premier model in the study area. Furthermore, LVQ results revealed that slope degree, rainfall, and altitude were the most effective factors. As regards the premier model, a total area of 44.74% was recognized as highly susceptible to flooding. The results of this study can be used as a platform for better land use planning in order to manage the highly susceptible zones to flooding and reduce the anticipated losses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of catchments' flooding potential: a physically-based analytical tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botter, G.; Basso, S.; Schirmer, M.

2016-12-01

The assessment of the flooding potential of river catchments is critical in many research and applied fields, ranging from river science and geomorphology to urban planning and the insurance industry. Predicting magnitude and frequency of floods is key to prevent and mitigate the negative effects of high flows, and has therefore long been the focus of hydrologic research. Here, the recurrence intervals of seasonal flow maxima are estimated through a novel physically-based analytic approach, which links the extremal distribution of streamflows to the stochastic dynamics of daily discharge. An analytical expression of the seasonal flood-frequency curve is provided, whose parameters embody climate and landscape attributes of the contributing catchment and can be estimated from daily rainfall and streamflow data. Only one parameter, which expresses catchment saturation prior to rainfall events, needs to be calibrated on the observed maxima. The method has been tested in a set of catchments featuring heterogeneous daily flow regimes. The model is able to reproduce characteristic shapes of flood-frequency curves emerging in erratic and persistent flow regimes and provides good estimates of seasonal flow maxima in different climatic regions. Performances are steady when the magnitude of events with return times longer than the available sample size is estimated. This makes the approach especially valuable for regions affected by data scarcity.

Towards a systematic approach to comparing distributions used in flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobée, B.; Cavadias, G.; Ashkar, F.; Bernier, J.; Rasmussen, P.

1993-02-01

The estimation of flood quantiles from available streamflow records has been a topic of extensive research in this century. However, the large number of distributions and estimation methods proposed in the scientific literature has led to a state of confusion, and a gap prevails between theory and practice. This concerns both at-site and regional flood frequency estimation. To facilitate the work of "hydrologists, designers of hydraulic structures, irrigation engineers and planners of water resources", the World Meteorological Organization recently published a report which surveys and compares current methodologies, and recommends a number of statistical distributions and estimation procedures. This report is an important step towards the clarification of this difficult topic, but we think that it does not effectively satisfy the needs of practitioners as intended, because it contains some statements which are not statistically justified and which require further discussion. In the present paper we review commonly used procedures for flood frequency estimation, point out some of the reasons for the present state of confusion concerning the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods, and propose the broad lines of a possible comparison strategy. We recommend that the results of such comparisons be discussed in an international forum of experts, with the purpose of attaining a more coherent and broadly accepted strategy for estimating floods.

Annual peak discharges from small drainage areas in Montana through September 1976

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, M.V.; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.

1977-01-01

Annual peak discharge from small drainage areas is tabulated for 336 sites in Montana. The 1976 additions included data collected at 206 sites. The program which investigates the magnitude and frequency of floods from small drainage areas in Montana, was begun July 1, 1955. Originally 45 crest-stage gaging stations were established. The purpose of the program is to collect sufficient peak-flow data, which through analysis could provide methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at any point in Montana. The ultimate objective is to provide methods for estimating the 100-year flood with the reliability needed for road design. (Woodard-USGS)

Estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for selected flood frequencies on small streams in South Carolina (1975)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whetstone, B.H.

1982-01-01

A program to collect and analyze flood data from small streams in South Carolina was conducted from 1967-75, as a cooperative research project with the South Carolina Department of Highways and Public Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration. As a result of that program, a technique is presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on small streams in South Carolina with drainage areas ranging in size from 1 to 500 square miles. Peak-discharge data from 74 stream-gaging stations (25 small streams were synthesized, whereas 49 stations had long-term records) were used in multiple regression procedures to obtain equations for estimating magnitude of floods having recurrence intervals of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years on small natural streams. The significant independent variable was drainage area. Equations were developed for the three physiographic provinces of South Carolina (Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge) and can be used for estimating floods on small streams. (USGS)

Flood characteristics for the New River in the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.B.; Cunningham, M.K.

1994-01-01

The frequency and magnitude of flooding of the New River in the New River Gorge National River was studied. A steady-state, one-dimensional flow model was applied to the study reach. Rating curves, cross sections, and Manning's roughness coefficients that were used are presented in this report. Manning's roughness coefficients were evaluated by comparing computed elevations (from application of the steady-state, one-dimensional flow model) to rated elevations at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations and miscellaneous-rating sites. Manning's roughness coefficients ranged from 0.030 to 0.075 and varied with hydraulic depth. The 2-, 25-, and 100-year flood discharges were esti- mated on the basis of information from flood- insurance studies of Summers County, Fayette County, and the city of Hinton, and flood-frequency analysis of discharge records for the USGS streamflow-gaging stations at Hinton and Thurmond. The 100-year discharge ranged from 107,000 cubic feet per second at Hinton to 150,000 cubic feet per second at Fayette.

Hydrological change: Towards a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Several studies have found that the frequency, magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods have significantly increased in many regions of the world. Yet, most of the methods used in detecting trends in hydrological extremes 1) focus on either floods or droughts, and/or 2) base their assessment on characteristics that, even though useful for trend identification, cannot be directly used in decision making, e.g. integrated water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we first discuss the need for a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts, and then propose a method based on the theory of runs and threshold levels. Flood and drought changes were assessed in terms of frequency, length and surplus/deficit volumes. This paper also presents an example application using streamflow data from two hydrometric stations along the Po River basin (Italy), Piacenza and Pontelagoscuro, and then discuss opportunities and challenges of the proposed method.

Hydrometeorological and statistical analyses of heavy rainfall in Midwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorndahl, S.; Smith, J. A.; Krajewski, W. F.

2012-04-01

During the last two decades the mid-western states of the United States of America has been largely afflicted by heavy flood producing rainfall. Several of these storms seem to have similar hydrometeorological properties in terms of pattern, track, evolution, life cycle, clustering, etc. which raise the question if it is possible to derive general characteristics of the space-time structures of these heavy storms. This is important in order to understand hydrometeorological features, e.g. how storms evolve and with what frequency we can expect extreme storms to occur. In the literature, most studies of extreme rainfall are based on point measurements (rain gauges). However, with high resolution and quality radar observation periods exceeding more than two decades, it is possible to do long-term spatio-temporal statistical analyses of extremes. This makes it possible to link return periods to distributed rainfall estimates and to study precipitation structures which cause floods. However, doing these statistical frequency analyses of rainfall based on radar observations introduces some different challenges, converting radar reflectivity observations to "true" rainfall, which are not problematic doing traditional analyses on rain gauge data. It is for example difficult to distinguish reflectivity from high intensity rain from reflectivity from other hydrometeors such as hail, especially using single polarization radars which are used in this study. Furthermore, reflectivity from bright band (melting layer) should be discarded and anomalous propagation should be corrected in order to produce valid statistics of extreme radar rainfall. Other challenges include combining observations from several radars to one mosaic, bias correction against rain gauges, range correction, ZR-relationships, etc. The present study analyzes radar rainfall observations from 1996 to 2011 based the American NEXRAD network of radars over an area covering parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Lake Michigan. The radar observations are processed using Hydro-NEXRAD algorithms in order to produce rainfall estimates with a spatial resolution of 1 km and a temporal resolution of 15 min. The rainfall estimates are bias-corrected on a daily basis using a network of rain gauges. Besides a thorough evaluation of the different challenges in investigating heavy rain as described above the study includes suggestions for frequency analysis methods as well as studies of hydrometeorological features of single events.

Long-term effects of flooding on mortality in England and Wales, 1994-2005: controlled interrupted time-series analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Limited evidence suggests that being flooded may increase mortality and morbidity among affected householders not just at the time of the flood but for months afterwards. The objective of this study is to explore the methods for quantifying such long-term health effects of flooding by analysis of routine mortality registrations in England and Wales. Methods Mortality data, geo-referenced by postcode of residence, were linked to a national database of flood events for 1994 to 2005. The ratio of mortality in the post-flood year to that in the pre-flood year within flooded postcodes was compared with that in non-flooded boundary areas (within 5 km of a flood). Further analyses compared the observed number of flood-area deaths in the year after flooding with the number expected from analysis of mortality trends stratified by region, age-group, sex, deprivation group and urban-rural status. Results Among the 319 recorded floods, there were 771 deaths in the year before flooding and 693 deaths in the year after (post-/pre-flood ratio of 0.90, 95% CI 0.82, 1.00). This ratio did not vary substantially by age, sex, population density or deprivation. A similar post-flood 'deficit' of deaths was suggested by the analyses based on observed/expected deaths. Conclusions The observed post-flood 'deficit' of deaths is counter-intuitive and difficult to interpret because of the possible influence of population displacement caused by flooding. The bias that might arise from such displacement remains unquantified but has important implications for future studies that use place of residence as a marker of exposure. PMID:21288358

Flood Protection Ecosystem Services in the Coast of Puerto Rico: Associations Between Watershed Processes and Local Human Health and Well Being Indicators

EPA Science Inventory

Flood events are becoming increasingly important in coastal cities due to a projected increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. A potential strategy to promote coastal protection from these hazards is the use of green infrastructure to provide flood protection ecosyste...

Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

2016-12-01

Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the relevance of accounting for the full range of flood events and their relation to both potential damages and benefits in risk assessments. Management measures may thus be designed to reflect local contexts and support benefits of natural hydrologic processes, while minimizing flood damage.

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Snake River in Grand Teton National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Nicholas C.; Schmidt, John C.

2007-01-01

Flood magnitudes have decreased throughout the study area as a result of regulation, but these decreases are mitigated downstream from tributaries. Dam operations have not resulted in long-term progressive channel change or the development and abandonment of floodplain deposits. However, channel change is now dependant on the frequency of high-magnitude floods, and the frequency with which the two floodplains are inundated has been reduced.

Sacramento Metropolitan Area, California

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-02-01

restriction would apply to virtually all of West Sacramento. Future conditions in the bypass areas are expected to remain essentially the same. During...frequency, the stage-frequency curve in the study area essentially becomes flat because of the large storage volume behind upstream levee breaches. This curve...and 400-year flood plains are also essentially the same (15 to 16 feet) because of the following: 1) the flood volume for each event is sufficient to

Holocene river history of the Danube: human-environment interactions on its islands in Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viczián, István; Balogh, János; Kis, Éva; Szeberényi, József

2016-04-01

A change in the frequency and magnitude of floods is the main response of river systems to climatic change. Natural floods are highly sensitive to even modest changes of climate. The discharge and the characteristics of floods basically determine the floodplain evolution and the feasibility of human land use and inhabitation on the islands and floodplains. The study revealed that those small islands of large rivers which have the surface rising only some meters above the river are particularly suitable research objects of Holocene climate variability as they are exposed to floods, react sensitively to environmental changes and their evolution may be paralleled with human history. The research area covers the islands of the Danube along the river between Komárom and Paks in Hungary, which is about 250 km, includes more than 50 smaller or formerly existing islands and two extensive islands: the Szentendre Island and Csepel Island. Data gathered from 570 archaeological sites of those islands from Neolithic to Modern Ages were analysed and interpreted in accordance with climate history and floodplain evolution. Nevertheless, the study is not only about river and its environmental history but it demonstrates the role of river and climatic variability in the history of mankind. The environment of the floodplain, the river hydrology, the sedimentation, the formation of islands and the incision and aggradation of surrounding riverbeds, the frequency of devastating floods have significantly changed through the historical time periods, which is reflected in the number and locations of archaeological sites on the islands. Their occupation history reflects the changes in discharge, climate, geomorphology, floods and human impacts and indicates historical periods with low or high probability of inundation. The most favourable periods for an island's occupation concerning the flood risk of its surfaces - and consequently of the banks along the river - are the first parts of a stable, warmer and drier period after a humid period, which is usually linked with revolutionary development of cultures and societies. The Middle Neolithic, the Late Copper Age, the Early and Late Bronze Ages, the Late Iron Age and the first part of the Roman Period, the High Middle Age are among the favourable periods, while the periods in between are characterised by frequent floods, higher water level and unfavourable environmental conditions. Archaeological sites known on small islands are found exactly from the above mentioned periods. The aim of the study was to present the Holocene river history of the Danube, improve a climatic-geomorphological model and reveal the variability of fluvial dynamics and geomorphological processes primarily affected by climate changes.

Floods of May 1981 in west-central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.; Fassler, John W.

1982-01-01

Extensive flooding occurred in west-central Montana during May 22-23, 1981, as a result of a series of rainstorms. Flooding was particularly severe in the communities of East Helena, Belt, and Deer Lodge. Although no lives were lost, total flood damages were estimated by the Montana Disaster Emergency Services Division to be in excess of $30 million. Peak discharges were determined at 75 sites in the flooded area. At 25 sites the May 1981 peak discharge exceeded the computed 100-year frequency flood, and at 29 sites, where previous flow records are available, the May 1981 peak discharge exceeded the previous peak of record. (USGS)

The effects of floodplain forest restoration and logjams on flood risk and flood hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Simon; Sear, David A.; Sykes, Tim; Odoni, Nicholas

2015-04-01

Flooding is the most common natural catastrophe, accounting for around half of all natural disaster related deaths and causing economic losses in Europe estimated at over € 2bn per year. In addition flooding is expected to increase in magnitude and frequency with climate change, effectively shortening the return period for a given magnitude flood. Increasing the height and extent of hard engineered defences in response to increased risk is both unsustainable and undesirable. Thus alternative approaches to flood mitigation are needed such as harnessing vegetation processes to slow the passage of flood waves and increase local flood storage. However, our understanding of these effects at the catchment scale is limited. In this presentation we demonstrate the effects of two river restoration approaches upon catchment scale flood hydrology. The addition of large wood to river channels during river restoration projects is a popular method of attempting to improve physical and biological conditions in degraded river systems. Projects utilising large wood can involve the installation of engineered logjams (ELJs), the planting and enhancement of riparian forests, or a combination of both. Altering the wood loading of a channel through installation of ELJs and increasing floodplain surface complexity through encouraging mature woodland could be expected to increase the local hydraulic resistance, increasing the timing and duration of overbank events locally and therefore increasing the travel time of a flood wave through a reach. This reach-scale effect has been documented in models and the field; however the impacts of these local changes at a catchment scale remains to be illustrated. Furthermore there is limited knowledge of how changing successional stages of a restored riparian forest through time may affect its influence on hydromorphic processes. We present results of a novel paired numerical modelling study. We model changes in flood hydrology based on a 98km² catchment using OVERFLOW; a simplified hydrological model using a spatially distributed unit hydrograph approach. Restoration scenarios for the hydrological modelling are informed by the development of a new conceptual model of riparian forest succession, including quantitative estimates of deadwood inputs to the system, using a numerical forest growth model. We explore scenarios using ELJs alone as well as managed and unmanaged riparian forest restoration at scales from reach to sub-catchment. We demonstrate that changes to catchment flood hydrology with restoration are highly location dependant and downstream flood peaks can in some cases increase through synchronisation of sub-catchment flood waves. We constrain magnitude estimates for increases and decreases in flood peaks for modelled restoration scenarios and scales. Finally we analyse the potential for using riparian forest restoration as part of an integrated flood risk management strategy, including specific examples of type and extent of restoration which may prove most beneficial.

Glacial vs. Interglacial Period Contrasts in Midlatitude Fluvial Systems, with Examples from Western Europe and the Texas Coastal Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blum, M.

2001-12-01

Mixed bedrock-alluvial valleys are the conveyor belts for sediment delivery to passive continental margins. Mapping, stratigraphic and sedimentologic investigations, and development of geochronological frameworks for large midlatitude rivers of this type, in Western Europe and the Texas Coastal Plain, provide for evaluation of fluvial responses to climate change over the last glacial-interglacial period, and the foundations for future quantitative evaluation of long profile evolution, changes through time in flood magnitude, and changes in storage and flux of sediments. This paper focuses on two issues. First, glacial vs. interglacial period fluvial systems are fundamentally different in terms of channel geometry, depositional style, and patterns of sediment storage. Glacial-period systems were dominated by coarse-grained channel belts (braided channels in Europe, large-wavelength meandering in Texas), and lacked fine-grained flood-plain deposits, whereas Holocene units, especially those of late Holocene age, contain appreciable thicknesses of flood-plain facies. Hence, extreme overbank flooding was not significant during the long glacial period, most flood events were contained within bankfull channel perimeters, and fine sediments were bypassed through the system to marine basins. By contrast, extreme overbank floods have been increasingly important during the relatively short Holocene, and a significant volume of fine sediment is sequestered in flood-plain settings. Second, glacial vs. interglacial systems exhibit different amplitudes and frequencies of fluvial adjustment to climate change. High-amplitude but low-frequency adjustments characterized the long glacial period, with 2-3 extended periods of lateral migration and sediment storage puncuated by episodes of valley incision. Low-amplitude but high-frequency adjustments have been more typical of the short Holocene, when there has been little net valley incision or net changes in sediment storage, but frequent changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods and periods of overbank flooding. This high-frequency signal is absent in landforms and deposits from the glacial period. Glacial vs. interglacial contrasts in process and stratigraphic results are the rule in most large unglaciated fluvial systems. 70-80 percent or more of any 100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycle is characterized by significant ice volume, cooler temperatures, mid-shelf or lower sea-level positions, and cooler-smaller ocean basins. A glacial-period process regime is therefore the norm, and an interglacial regime like that of the late Holocene is relatively unique and non-representative. Large unglaciated midlatitude fluvial systems may be in long-term equilibrium with a glacial-period environment, with long profiles graded to glacial-period sea-level positions, so fluvial systems respond to major changes in climate, discharge regimes, and sediment loads, but they appear to have been relatively insensitive to higher-frequency changes. Short interglacials like the Holocene are, by comparison, periods of abnormally high sea levels and relatively low-amplitude climate changes, but fluvial systems appear to exhibit a greatly increased sensitivity to subtle changes in discharge regimes that produce frequent periods of disequilibrium.

Regional skew for California, and flood frequency for selected sites in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, based on data through water year 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Veilleux, Andrea; Stedinger, J.R.; Barth, N.A.; Knifong, Donna L.; Ferris, J.C.

2011-01-01

Improved flood-frequency information is important throughout California in general and in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin in particular, because of an extensive network of flood-control levees and the risk of catastrophic flooding. A key first step in updating flood-frequency information is determining regional skew. A Bayesian generalized least squares (GLS) regression method was used to derive a regional-skew model based on annual peak-discharge data for 158 long-term (30 or more years of record) stations throughout most of California. The desert areas in southeastern California had too few long-term stations to reliably determine regional skew for that hydrologically distinct region; therefore, the desert areas were excluded from the regional skew analysis for California. Of the 158 long-term stations used to determine regional skew, 145 have minimally regulated annual-peak discharges, and 13 stations are dam sites for which unregulated peak discharges were estimated from unregulated daily maximum discharge data furnished by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers. Station skew was determined by using an expected moments algorithm (EMA) program for fitting the Pearson Type 3 flood-frequency distribution to the logarithms of annual peak-discharge data. The Bayesian GLS regression method previously developed was modified because of the large cross correlations among concurrent recorded peak discharges in California and the use of censored data and historical flood information with the new expected moments algorithm. In particular, to properly account for these cross-correlation problems and develop a suitable regression model and regression diagnostics, a combination of Bayesian weighted least squares and generalized least squares regression was adopted. This new methodology identified a nonlinear function relating regional skew to mean basin elevation. The regional skew values ranged from -0.62 for a mean basin elevation of zero to 0.61 for a mean basin elevation of 11,000 feet. This relation between skew and elevation reflects the interaction of snow with rain, which increases with increased elevation. The equivalent record length for the new regional skew ranges from 52 to 65 years of record, depending upon mean basin elevation. The old regional skew map in Bulletin 17B, published by the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (1982), reported an equivalent record length of only 17 years. The newly developed regional skew relation for California was used to update flood frequency for the 158 sites used in the regional skew analysis as well as 206 selected sites in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin. For these sites, annual-peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years were determined on the basis of data through water year 2006. The expected moments algorithm was used for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods at gaged sites by using regional skew values and using the basic approach outlined in Bulletin

Urban Infrastructure, Channel-Floodplain Morphology and Flood Flow Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A. J.; Smith, J. A.; Nelson, C. B.

2006-12-01

The relationship between the channel and the floodplain in urban settings is heavily influenced by (1) altered watershed hydrologic response and frequency distribution of flows, (2) channel enlargement resulting from altered hydrology under conditions of limited sediment supply, (3) direct modification of channels and floodplains for purposes of erosion mitigation, flood protection, commercial development and creation of public amenities, (4) valley constrictions and flow obstructions associated with bridges, culverts, road embankments and other types of floodplain encroachment causing fragmentation or longitudinal segmentation of the riparian corridor. Field observation of inundation patterns associated with recurring floods in the Baltimore metropolitan area is used in combination with 2-dimensional hydraulic modeling to simulate patterns of floodplain inundation and to explore the relationships between magnitude and shape of the flood hydrograph, morphology of the urban channel-floodplain system, and the frequency and extent of floodplain inundation. Case studies include a July 2004 flood associated with a 300-year 2-hour rainfall in a small (14.2 km2) urban watershed, as well as several other events caused by summer thunderstorms with shorter recurrence intervals that generated an extraordinary flood response. The influence of urban infrastructure on flood inundation and flow patterns is expressed in terms of altered (and hysteretic) stage-discharge relationships, stepped flood profiles, rapid longitudinal attenuation of flood waves, and transient flow reversals at confluences and constrictions. Given the current level of interest in restoration measures these patterns merit consideration in planning future development and mitigation efforts.

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

PubMed Central

Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-01-01

Abstract This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non‐fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation. PMID:27840456

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, José Luis; Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-09-01

This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non-fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information.

PubMed

Salinas, José Luis; Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-09-01

This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non-fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

Increased flood risks in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valleys, CA, under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, T.; Hidalgo-Leon, H.; Dettinger, M.; Cayan, D.

2008-12-01

Natural calamities like floods cause immense damages to human society globally, and California is no exception. A simulation analysis of flood generation in the western Sierra Nevada of California was carried out on simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model under prescribed changes in precipitation (+10 percent) and temperature (+3oC and +5oC) to evaluate likely changes in 3-day flood- frequency curves under climate change. An additional experiment was carried out where snow production was artificially turned off in VIC. All these experiments showed larger flood magnitudes from California's Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN), but the changes (for floods larger than the historical 20-year floods) were significant (at 90 percent confidence level) only in the SSN for severe warming cases. Another analysis using downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (CNRM CM3, GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR PCM1) and emission scenario A2 as input to VIC yielded a general increase in the 3-days annual maximum flows under climate change. The increases are significant (at 90 percent confidence level) in the SSN for the period 2051-2099 with all the three climate models analyzed. In the NSN the increases are significant only with the CNRM CM3 model. In general, the frequency of floods increases or stayed same under the projected future climates, and some of the projected floods were unprecedentedly large when compared to historical simulations.

Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Daryl; Thompson, Chris; Croke, Jacky; Sharma, Ashneel; Macklin, Mark

2017-03-01

Using a combination of stream gauge, historical, and paleoflood records to extend extreme flood records has proven to be useful in improving flood frequency analysis (FFA). The approach has typically been applied in localities with long historical records and/or suitable river settings for paleoflood reconstruction from slack-water deposits (SWDs). However, many regions around the world have neither extensive historical information nor bedrock gorges suitable for SWDs preservation and paleoflood reconstruction. This study from subtropical Australia demonstrates that confined, semialluvial channels such as macrochannels provide relatively stable boundaries over the 1000-2000 year time period and the preserved SWDs enabled paleoflood reconstruction and their incorporation into FFA. FFA for three sites in subtropical Australia with the integration of historical and paleoflood data using Bayesian Inference methods showed a significant reduction in uncertainty associated with the estimated discharge of a flood quantile. Uncertainty associated with estimated discharge for the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood is reduced by more than 50%. In addition, sensitivity analysis of possible within-channel boundary changes shows that FFA is not significantly affected by any associated changes in channel capacity. Therefore, a greater range of channel types may be used for reliable paleoflood reconstruction by evaluating the stability of inset alluvial units, thereby increasing the quantity of temporal data available for FFA. The reduction in uncertainty, particularly in the prediction of the ≤1% AEP design flood, will improve flood risk planning and management in regions with limited temporal flood data.

Examination of flood characteristics at selected streamgages in the Meramec River Basin, eastern Missouri, December 2015–January 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Koenig, Todd A.; Rydlund, Jr., Paul H.; Heimann, David C.

2016-09-13

OverviewHeavy rainfall resulted in major flooding in the Meramec River Basin in eastern Missouri during late December 2015 through early January 2016. Cumulative rainfall from December 14 to 29, 2015, ranged from 7.6 to 12.3 inches at selected precipitation stations in the basin with flooding driven by the heaviest precipitation (3.9–9.7 inches) between December 27 and 29, 2015. Financial losses from flooding included damage to homes and other structures, damage to roads, and debris removal. Eight of 11 counties in the basin were declared a Federal Disaster Area.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and St. Louis Metropolitan Sewer District, operates multiple streamgages along the Meramec River and its primary tributaries including the Bourbeuse River and Big River. The period of record for streamflow at streamgages in the basin included in this report ranges from 24 to 102 years. Instrumentation in a streamgage shelter automatically makes observations of stage using a variety of methods (submersible pressure transducer, non-submersible pressure transducer, or non-contact radar). These observations are recorded autonomously at a predetermined programmed frequency (typically either 15 or 30 minutes) dependent on drainage-area size and concomitant flashiness of the stream. Although stage data are important, streamflow data are equally or more important for streamflow forecasting, water-quality constituent loads computation, flood-frequency analysis, and flood mitigation planning. Streamflows are computed from recorded stage data using an empirically determined relation between stage and streamflow termed a “rating.” Development and verification of the rating requires periodic onsite discrete measurements of streamflow throughout time and over the range of stages to define local hydraulic conditions.The purpose of this report is to examine characteristics of flooding that occurred in the Meramec River Basin in December 2015–January 2016 including peak stages, peak streamflows, and the flood-frequency statistics associated with the peak flows. A comparison between the December 2015–January 2016 flood and a similar flood in December 1982 in the Meramec River Basin also is included.

Adige river in Trento flooding map, 1892: private or public risk transfer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranzi, Roberto

2016-04-01

For the determination of the flood risk hydrologist and hydraulic engineers focuse their attention mainly to the estimation of physical factors determining the flood hazard, while economists and experts of social sciences deal mainly with the estimation of vulnerability and exposure. The fact that flood zoning involves both hydrological and socio-economic aspects, however, was clear already in the XIX century when the impact of floods on inundated areas started to appear in flood maps, for instance in the UK and in Italy. A pioneering 'flood risk' map for the Adige river in Trento, Italy, was already published in 1892, taking into account in detail both hazard intensity in terms of velocity and depth, frequency of occurrence, vulnerability and economic costs for flood protection with river embankments. This map is likely to be the reinterpreted certainly as a pioneering, and possibly as the first flood risk map for an Italian river and worldwide. Risk levels were divided in three categories and seven sub-categories, depending on flood water depth, velocity, frequency and damage costs. It is interesting to notice the fact that at that time the map was used to share the cost of levees' reparation and enhancement after the severe September 1882 flood as a function of the estimated level of protection of the respective areas against the flood risk. The sharing of costs between public bodies, the railway company and private owners was debated for about 20 years and at the end the public sustained the major costs. This shows how already at that time the economic assessment of structural flood protections was based on objective and rational cost-benefit criteria, that hydraulic risk mapping was perceived by the society as fundamental for the design of flood protection systems and that a balanced cost sharing between public and private was an accepted approach although some protests arose at that time.

Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

2016-04-01

The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Determination of Flood Reduction Alternatives for Climate Change Adaptation in Gyeongancheon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, D.; Joo, H. J.; Jung, J.; Kim, H. S.

2017-12-01

Recently, the frequency of extreme rainfall event has increased due to the climate change and the impermeable area in an urban watershed has also increased due to the rapid urbanization. Therefore, the flood risk is increasing and we ought to prepare countermeasures for flood damage reduction. For the determination of appropriate measures or alternatives, firstly, this study estimated the frequency based rainfall considering the climate change according to the each target period(reference : 1971˜2010, Target period Ⅰ : 2011˜2040, Target period Ⅱ : 2041˜2070, Target period Ⅲ : 2071˜2100). Then the future flood discharge was computed by using HEC-HMS model. We set 5 sizes of drainage pumps and detention ponds respectively as the flood reduction alternatives and the flood level in the river was obtained by each alternative through HEC-RAS model. The flood inundation map was constructed using topographical data and flood water level in the river and the economic analysis was conducted for the flood damage reduction studies using Multi Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis (MD-FDA) tool. As a result of the effectiveness analysis of the flood reduction alternatives, the flood level by drainage pump was reduced by 0.06m up to 0.44m while it was reduced by 0.01m up to 1.86m in the case of the detention pond. The flooded area was shrunk by up to 32.64% from 0.3% and inundation depth was also dropped. As a result of a comparison of the Benefit/Cost ratio estimated by the economic analysis, a detention pond E in the target period Ⅰ and the pump D in the periods Ⅱ and Ⅲ were considered as the appropriate alternatives for the flood damage reduction under the climate change. AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning(2017R1A2B3005695)

Flood risk (d)evolution: Disentangling key drivers of flood risk change with a retro-model experiment.

PubMed

Zischg, Andreas Paul; Hofer, Patrick; Mosimann, Markus; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Ramirez, Jorge A; Keiler, Margreth; Weingartner, Rolf

2018-05-19

Flood risks are dynamically changing over time. Over decades and centuries, the main drivers for flood risk change are influenced either by perturbations or slow alterations in the natural environment or, more importantly, by socio-economic development and human interventions. However, changes in the natural and human environment are intertwined. Thus, the analysis of the main drivers for flood risk changes requires a disentangling of the individual risk components. Here, we present a method for isolating the individual effects of selected drivers of change and selected flood risk management options based on a model experiment. In contrast to purely synthetic model experiments, we built our analyses upon a retro-model consisting of several spatio-temporal stages of river morphology and settlement structure. The main advantage of this approach is that the overall long-term dynamics are known and do not have to be assumed. We used this model setup to analyse the temporal evolution of the flood risk, for an ex-post evaluation of the key drivers of change, and for analysing possible alternative pathways for flood risk evolution under different governance settings. We showed that in the study region the construction of lateral levees and the consecutive river incision are the main drivers for decreasing flood risks over the last century. A rebound effect in flood risk can be observed following an increase in settlements since the 1960s. This effect is not as relevant as the river engineering measures, but it will become increasingly relevant in the future with continued socio-economic growth. The presented approach could provide a methodological framework for studying pathways for future flood risk evolvement and for the formulation of narratives for adapting governmental flood risk strategies to the spatio-temporal dynamics in the built environment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

UAVSAR and TerraSAR-X Based InSAR Detection of Localized Subsidence in the New Orleans Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blom, R. G.; An, K.; Jones, C. E.; Latini, D.

2014-12-01

Vulnerability of the US Gulf coast to inundation has received increased attention since hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Compounding effects of sea level rise, wetland loss, and regional and local subsidence makes flood protection a difficult challenge, and particularly for the New Orleans area. Key to flood protection is precise knowledge of elevations and elevation changes. Analysis of historical and continuing geodetic measurements show surprising complexity, including locations subsiding more rapidly than considered during planning of hurricane protection and coastal restoration projects. Combining traditional, precise geodetic data with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) observations can provide geographically dense constraints on surface deformation. The Gulf Coast environment is challenging for InSAR techniques, especially with systems not designed for interferometry. We use two InSAR capable systems, the L- band (24 cm wavelength) airborne JPL/NASA UAVSAR, and the DLR/EADS Astrium spaceborne TerraSAR X-band (3 cm wavelength), and compare results. First, we are applying pair-wise InSAR to the longer wavelength UAVSAR data to detect localized elevation changes potentially impacting flood protection infrastructure from 2009 - 2014. We focus on areas on and near flood protection infrastructure to identify changes indicative of subsidence, structural deformation, and/or seepage. The Spaceborne TerraSAR X-band SAR system has relatively frequent observations, and dense persistent scatterers in urban areas, enabling measurement of very small displacements. We compare L-band UAVSAR results with permanent scatterer (PS-InSAR) and Short Baseline Subsets (SBAS) interferometric analyses of a stack composed by 28 TerraSAR X-band images acquired over the same period. Thus we can evaluate results from the different radar frequencies and analyses techniques. Preliminary results indicate subsidence features potentially of a variety of causes, including ground water pumping to post recent construction ground compaction. Our overall goal is to enable incorporation of InSAR into the decision making process via identification and delineation of areas of persistent subsidence, and provide input to improve monitoring and planning in flood risk areas.

The effects of artificial sandbar breaching on the macrophyte communities of an intermittently open estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, Jose Pedro N.; Saggio, Ângelo; Lima, Maria Inês Salgueiro

2013-04-01

Artificial sandbar opening of intermittently open estuaries is a practice utilised worldwide to improve water quality, fishing, and recreational amenities and to prevent the flooding of adjacent properties. Breaching causes the water level to drop drastically, exposing plants to two water level extremes. With some exceptions, estuarine communities are adversely affected by this practice. Although breaching can happen naturally, artificial breaching is on the rise, and the impact of manipulating water levels on estuarine communities needs to be investigated. In this work, we described the breaching cycles of the Massaguaçu River Estuary and proposed flooding scenarios for the estuary's macrophyte banks based on our data. We calculated the relationship between plant distribution and flooding conditions and used our calculations to predict the estuary community's composition depending on the water level at breaching time. We discovered a strong relationship between plant distribution and flooding conditions, and we predicted that the estuarine community would be markedly different between flooding scenarios. Low frequency flooding scenarios would be related to submerged macrophytes and, as the flooding frequency increases, macrophytes would be replaced by amphibious plants, and eventually by the arboreal stratus. Therefore, we concluded that an increase in artificial breaching cycles would have a detrimental impact on the estuary community.

Physically-based extreme flood frequency with stochastic storm transposition and paleoflood data on large watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, John F.; Julien, Pierre Y.; Velleux, Mark L.

2014-03-01

Traditionally, deterministic flood procedures such as the Probable Maximum Flood have been used for critical infrastructure design. Some Federal agencies now use hydrologic risk analysis to assess potential impacts of extreme events on existing structures such as large dams. Extreme flood hazard estimates and distributions are needed for these efforts, with very low annual exceedance probabilities (⩽10-4) (return periods >10,000 years). An integrated data-modeling hydrologic hazard framework for physically-based extreme flood hazard estimation is presented. Key elements include: (1) a physically-based runoff model (TREX) coupled with a stochastic storm transposition technique; (2) hydrometeorological information from radar and an extreme storm catalog; and (3) streamflow and paleoflood data for independently testing and refining runoff model predictions at internal locations. This new approach requires full integration of collaborative work in hydrometeorology, flood hydrology and paleoflood hydrology. An application on the 12,000 km2 Arkansas River watershed in Colorado demonstrates that the size and location of extreme storms are critical factors in the analysis of basin-average rainfall frequency and flood peak distributions. Runoff model results are substantially improved by the availability and use of paleoflood nonexceedance data spanning the past 1000 years at critical watershed locations.

Implications of flood pulse restoration for Populus regeneration on the upper Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bovee, Ken D.; Scott, Michael L.

2002-01-01

We developed a mass balance flow model to reconstruct unregulated daily peak flows in the National Wild and Scenic reach of the Missouri River, Montana. Results indicated that although the observed frequency of large peak flows has not changed in the post-dam period, their magnitude has been reduced from 40 to 50% as a consequence of flow regulation. Reductions in the magnitude of these flows should reduce the expected frequency of large flood-pulses over a longer time-scale. Results of a two-dimensional hydraulic model indicated that limited cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp. Monilifera) recruitment occurs at relatively small peak discharges, but to maximize establishment of cottonwoods in the Wild and Scenic reach, a threshold of 1850 m3/s would be necessary at the Virgelle gauge. Floods of this magnitude or greater lead to establishment of cottonwood seedlings above the zone of frequent ice-drive disturbance. Restoring the frequency, magnitude, duration and timing of these flood pulses would benefit important natural resource values including riparian cottonwood forests and native fish species in the upper Missouri River basin. However, efforts to naturalize flow must be made in the context of a water management system that was authorized and constructed for the primary purposes of flood control, power generation and irrigation. Using the synthesized flow model and flood damage curves, we examined six scenarios for delivering flows ≥1850 m3/s to the Wild and Scenic reach. Whereas some scenarios appeared to be politically and economically infeasible, our analysis suggested that there is enough operational flexibility in the system to restore more natural flood pulses without greatly compromising other values.

Fate and Transport of Cohesive Sediment and HCB in the Middle Elbe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moshenberg, Kari; Heise, Susanne; Calmano, Wolfgang

2014-05-01

Chemical contamination of waterways and floodplains is a pervasive environmental problem that threatens aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Due to extensive historical contamination and redistribution of contaminated sediments throughout the basin, the Elbe River transports significant loads of contaminants downstream, particularly during flood events. This study focuses on Hexachlorobenzene (HCB), a persistent organic pollutant that has been identified as a contaminant of concern in the Elbe Basin. To better understand the fate and transport of cohesive sediments and sediment-sorbed HCB, a hydrodynamic, suspended sediment, and contaminated transport model for the 271-km reach of the Elbe River basin between Dresden and Magdeburg was developed. Additionally, trends in suspended sediment and contaminant transport were investigated in the context of the recent high frequency of floods in the Elbe Basin. This study presents strong evidence that extreme high water events, such as the August, 2002 floods, have a permanent effect on the sediment transport regime in the Elbe River. Additionally, results indicate that a significant component annual HCB loads are transported downstream during floods. Additionally, modeled results for suspended sediment and HCB accumulation on floodplains are presented and discussed. Uncertainty and issues related to model development are also addressed. A worst case analysis of HCB uptake by dairy cows and beef cattle indicate that significant, biologically relevant quantities of sediment-sorbed HCB accumulate on the Elbe floodplains following flood events. Given both the recent high frequency of floods in the Elbe Basin, and the potential increase in flood frequency due to climate change, an evaluation of source control measures and/or additional monitoring of floodplain soils and grasses is recommended.

Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100.

PubMed

Hall, Jim W; Sayers, Paul B; Walkden, Mike J A; Panzeri, Mike

2006-04-15

Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 billion pounds to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 billion pounds, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pounds and 0.8 billion pounds. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pounds and 40 billion pounds. Non-structural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures.

Generation Mechanism and Prediction Model for Low Frequency Noise Induced by Energy Dissipating Submerged Jets during Flood Discharge from a High Dam

PubMed Central

Lian, Jijian; Zhang, Wenjiao; Guo, Qizhong; Liu, Fang

2016-01-01

As flood water is discharged from a high dam, low frequency (i.e., lower than 10 Hz) noise (LFN) associated with air pulsation is generated and propagated in the surrounding areas, causing environmental problems such as vibrations of windows and doors and discomfort of residents and construction workers. To study the generation mechanisms and key influencing factors of LFN induced by energy dissipation through submerged jets at a high dam, detailed prototype observations and analyses of LFN are conducted. The discharge flow field is simulated using a gas-liquid turbulent flow model, and the vorticity fluctuation characteristics are then analyzed. The mathematical model for the LFN intensity is developed based on vortex sound theory and a turbulent flow model, verified by prototype observations. The model results reveal that the vorticity fluctuation in strong shear layers around the high-velocity submerged jets is highly correlated with the on-site LFN, and the strong shear layers are the main regions of acoustic source for the LFN. In addition, the predicted and observed magnitudes of LFN intensity agree quite well. This is the first time that the LFN intensity has been shown to be able to be predicted quantitatively. PMID:27314374

Regional maximum rainfall analysis using L-moments at the Titicaca Lake drainage, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Palomino, Carlos Antonio; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo Sven

2017-08-01

The present study investigates the application of the index flood L-moments-based regional frequency analysis procedure (RFA-LM) to the annual maximum 24-h rainfall (AM) of 33 rainfall gauge stations (RGs) to estimate rainfall quantiles at the Titicaca Lake drainage (TL). The study region was chosen because it is characterised by common floods that affect agricultural production and infrastructure. First, detailed quality analyses and verification of the RFA-LM assumptions were conducted. For this purpose, different tests for outlier verification, homogeneity, stationarity, and serial independence were employed. Then, the application of RFA-LM procedure allowed us to consider the TL as a single, hydrologically homogeneous region, in terms of its maximum rainfall frequency. That is, this region can be modelled by a generalised normal (GNO) distribution, chosen according to the Z test for goodness-of-fit, L-moments (LM) ratio diagram, and an additional evaluation of the precision of the regional growth curve. Due to the low density of RG in the TL, it was important to produce maps of the AM design quantiles estimated using RFA-LM. Therefore, the ordinary Kriging interpolation (OK) technique was used. These maps will be a useful tool for determining the different AM quantiles at any point of interest for hydrologists in the region.

Flash floods in Catalonia: a recurrent situation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, M. C.; Lindbergh, S.; Llasat-Botija, M.; Rodríguez, A.; Zaragoza, A.

2009-09-01

A database with information about the social impact produced by all the flood events recorded in Catalonia between 1982 and 2007 has been built. Original information comes from the INUNGAMA database (1900-2000) presented by Barnolas and Llasat (2007), the PRESSGAMA database (1982-2007) (Llasat et al., in rev.) and information from different published works (Barriendos et al, 2003; Barriendos and Pomés, 1993). Social impact has been obtained systematically in basis to news press data and, occasionally, in basis to insurance data. Flood events have been classified in ordinary floods, extraordinary floods and catastrophic ones, following the proposal of Llasat et al (2005). However, having in mind the flash floods effects, some new categories concerning casualties and car damages have also been introduced. The spatial and temporal distribution of these flood events has been analysed. Results have been compared with those obtained for the period 1900-2000 (Barnolas and Llasat, 2007) and 1350-2000 (Barrera et al, 2006). In order to better estimate the social impact and vulnerability some indicators have been defined and analyzed for some specific cases and a specific region. Besides the indicators applied in the INUNCAT Plan to obtain a cartography of flood risk in Catalonia, other ones like the number of cars affected or the number of request received by the meteorological service, has been also taken into account. These indicators allow analyzing global and temporal trends as well as characterizing the events. The selected region has been the Maresme, which is a flood prone region with a great density of population and that experiences every year one or more flash floods. The annual number of floods shows a positive trend that cannot be justified by the rainfall trend. Both vulnerability and hazard components have been considered and a discussion about the flood prevention measures is presented. The third part of this work has been centred in the analysis and characterization of flash flood events. With this aim, the eleven cases selected in the framework of the FLASH European project have been analysed in depth. The relationship between the rainfall recorded above 60, 100 and 150 mm and the municipalities affected by floods have been analysed.

Coastal flooding events on the French coast of the eastern English Channel: the result of a combination of meteorological, marine, and morphological factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letortu, P.; Costa, S.; Cantat, O.; Levoy, F.; Dauvin, J. C.; De Saint-Léger, E.

2012-04-01

On account of increasing inhabitation and development of coastal areas, the economical stakes are high for forecasting and prevention of coastal flooding risk. Because of its exposure to prevailing Westerlies, morphological, and topographic features, low coastal areas on the French coast of the eastern English Channel are particularly sensitive to this natural risk. This sensitivity, that has always characterized this study area, is becoming worrying to politicians and inhabitants. The study aim is to identify, from 1949 to 2010, the possible increase of frequency and intensity of these meteorological and marine events, and their characteristics for forecasting objectives. The chosen approach is made up of three elements: 1) An analysis of strong west wind over the last decades has been implemented from Meteo-France data of Dieppe, reliable regional meteorological station. Beyond multi-annual random fluctuations, we have noticed a decrease in frequency and intensity of strong winds traditionally involved in flooding events. 2) An analysis of past events has been carried out from many information sources to warrant the accuracy of statements and their exhaustiveness. Thanks to this database, the main results are: i) the absence of increasing trend about frequency and intensity of coastal flooding events; ii) the cartography of coastal flooding risk for each urbanized area; iii) the definition of wind and tide level thresholds (7 m/s and 8.49 m at Dieppe) above which there is flooding. 3) A characterization, on the synoptic scale, of meteorological conditions ending in flooding has been performed. In matching this piece of information with the past events inventory, we have identified: firstly the two major types of low pressure trajectories that generated overflowing, so the two main atmospheric circulations prone to flooding, and secondly the fundamental meteorological aspect of the high north-west pressure gradient (≥ 20 hPa from "Pointe du Raz" (France) to Cromer city (U.K.)) of these flooding events. Frequency of this particular pressure configuration in the English Channel does not highlight any significant trend during the last century. Beyond tide level and wind (speed, direction) thresholds, another factor explains coastal flooding events. This is the matter of atmospheric cold front during high tide, observable in 70 % of coastal flooding events in the eastern English Channel. Analysis of these coastal flooding events cannot be restricted to simple meteorological and marine conditions during overflowing by the sea. This work emphasizes the need for longer analysis period. It is important to encompass the possible beach "preparation time" (lowering of the beach profile) by meteorological and marine conditions for a few days or weeks before flooding event. This "preparation time" may be short: 48 hours of strong winds (> 8 m/s) may be sufficient to shape a beach profile prone to overflowing. Coastal flooding is the result of a combination of factors from various time and space scales, which goes over the simple combination of extreme sea-level and strong wind perpendicular to coast.

Germination of Cherrybark and Nuttal Oak Acorns Following Flooding

Treesearch

C. B. Briscoe

1961-01-01

Frequency and duration of flooding is undoubtedly one of the most important environmental factors affecting species distribution in bottomland forests. In the life of a tree this influence is first exerted on the seed, and the capacity of seeds to retain viability after submergence by flood water may well be an important factor in determining the success of a species...

A Study on Active Disaster Management System for Standardized Emergency Action Plan using BIM and Flood Damage Estimation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, C.; Om, J.; Hwang, J.; Joo, K.; Heo, J.

2013-12-01

In recent, the frequency of extreme flood has been increasing due to climate change and global warming. Highly flood damages are mainly caused by the collapse of flood control structures such as dam and dike. In order to reduce these disasters, the disaster management system (DMS) through flood forecasting, inundation mapping, EAP (Emergency Action Plan) has been studied. The estimation of inundation damage and practical EAP are especially crucial to the DMS. However, it is difficult to predict inundation and take a proper action through DMS in real emergency situation because several techniques for inundation damage estimation are not integrated and EAP is supplied in the form of a document in Korea. In this study, the integrated simulation system including rainfall frequency analysis, rainfall-runoff modeling, inundation prediction, surface runoff analysis, and inland flood analysis was developed. Using this system coupled with standard GIS data, inundation damage can be estimated comprehensively and automatically. The standard EAP based on BIM (Building Information Modeling) was also established in this system. It is, therefore, expected that the inundation damages through this study over the entire area including buildings can be predicted and managed.

Flood frequency analysis - the challenge of using historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjorn

2015-04-01

Estimates of high flood quantiles are needed for many applications, .e.g. dam safety assessments are based on the 1000 years flood, whereas the dimensioning of important infrastructure requires estimates of the 200 year flood. The flood quantiles are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution to a dataset of high flows comprising either annual maximum values or peaks over a selected threshold. Since the record length of data is limited compared to the desired flood quantile, the estimated flood magnitudes are based on a high degree of extrapolation. E.g. the longest time series available in Norway are around 120 years, and as a result any estimation of a 1000 years flood will require extrapolation. One solution is to extend the temporal dimension of a data series by including information about historical floods before the stream flow was systematically gaugeded. Such information could be flood marks or written documentation about flood events. The aim of this study was to evaluate the added value of using historical flood data for at-site flood frequency estimation. The historical floods were included in two ways by assuming: (1) the size of (all) floods above a high threshold within a time interval is known; and (2) the number of floods above a high threshold for a time interval is known. We used a Bayesian model formulation, with MCMC used for model estimation. This estimation procedure allowed us to estimate the predictive uncertainty of flood quantiles (i.e. both sampling and parameter uncertainty is accounted for). We tested the methods using 123 years of systematic data from Bulken in western Norway. In 2014 the largest flood in the systematic record was observed. From written documentation and flood marks we had information from three severe floods in the 18th century and they were likely to exceed the 2014 flood. We evaluated the added value in two ways. First we used the 123 year long streamflow time series and investigated the effect of having several shorter series' which could be supplemented with a limited number of known large flood events. Then we used the three historical floods from the 18th century combined with the whole and subsets of the 123 years of systematic observations. In the latter case several challenges were identified: i) The possibility to transfer water levels to river streamflows due to man made changes in the river profile, (ii) The stationarity of the data might be questioned since the three largest historical floods occurred during the "little ice age" with different climatic conditions compared to today.

NEW STUDIES OF URBAN FLOOD FREQUENCY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.

1986-01-01

Five reports dealing with flood magnitude and frequency in urban areas in the southeastern United States have been published during the past 2 years by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). These reports are based on data collected in Tampa and Tallahassee, Florida; Atlanta, Georgia; and several cities in Alabama and Tennessee. Each report contains regression equations useful for estimating flood peaks for selected recurrence intervals at ungauged urban sites. A nationwide study of urban flood characteristics by the USGS published in 1983 contains equations for estimating urban peak discharges for ungauged sites. At the time that the nationwide study was conducted, data from only 35 sites in the southeastern United States were available. The five new reports contain data for 88 additional sites. These new data show that the seven-parameter estimating equations developed in the nationwide study are unbiased and have prediction errors less than those described in the nationwide report.

Fuzzifying historical peak water levels: case study of the river Rhine at Basel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Kiss, Andrea; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Hydrological information comes from a variety of sources, which in some cases might be non-precise. In particular, this is an important issue for the available information on water stages during historical floods. An accurate estimation of the water level profile, together with an elevation model of the riverbed and floodplain areas is fundamental for the hydraulic reconstruction of historical flood events, allowing the back calculation of flood peak discharges, velocity and erosion fields, damages, among others. For the greatest floods during the last 1700 years, Wetter et al. (2011) reconstructed the water levels and historical discharges at different locations in the old city centre from a variety of historical sources (stone marks, official documents, paintings, etc). This work presents a model for the inherent unpreciseness of these historical water levels. This is, with the arithmetics of fuzzy numbers, described by their membership functions, in a similar fashion as the probability density function describes the uncertainty of a random variable. Additional to the in-site collected water stages from floodmarks and other documentary evidence (e.g. preserved in narratives and newspaper flood reports) are prone to be modeled in a fuzzy way. This study presents the use of fuzzy logic to transform historical information from different sources, in this case of flood water stages, into membership functions. This values might then introduced in the mathematical framework of Fuzzy Bayesian Inference to perform the statistical analyses with the rules of fuzzy numbers algebra. The results of this flood frequency analysis, as in the traditional non-fuzzy way, link discharges with exceedance probabilities or return periods. The main difference is, that the modeled discharge quantiles are not precise values, but fuzzy numbers instead, represented by their membership functions explicitly including the unpreciseness of the historical information used. Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733-758.

Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing, GIS and frequency ratio model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Palsamanta, Babita

2018-05-01

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is saddled with frequent natural disasters like earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, drought, flood etc. Flood, as a hydrological disaster to humankind's niche brings about a powerful and often sudden, pernicious change in the surface distribution of water on land, while the benevolence of flood manifests in restoring the health of the thalweg from excessive siltation by redistributing the fertile sediments on the riverine floodplains. In respect to social, economic and environmental perspective, flood is one of the most devastating disasters in PNG. This research was conducted to investigate the usefulness of remote sensing, geographic information system and the frequency ratio (FR) for flood susceptibility mapping. FR model was used to handle different independent variables via weighted-based bivariate probability values to generate a plausible flood susceptibility map. This study was conducted in the Markham riverine precinct under Morobe province in PNG. A historical flood inventory database of PNG resource information system (PNGRIS) was used to generate 143 flood locations based on "create fishnet" analysis. 100 (70%) flood sample locations were selected randomly for model building. Ten independent variables, namely land use/land cover, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, surface runoff, landform, lithology, distance from the main river, soil texture and soil drainage were used into the FR model for flood vulnerability analysis. Finally, the database was developed for areas vulnerable to flood. The result demonstrated a span of FR values ranging from 2.66 (least flood prone) to 19.02 (most flood prone) for the study area. The developed database was reclassified into five (5) flood vulnerability zones segmenting on the FR values, namely very low (less that 5.0), low (5.0-7.5), moderate (7.5-10.0), high (10.0-12.5) and very high susceptibility (more than 12.5). The result indicated that about 19.4% land area as `very high' and 35.8% as `high' flood vulnerable class. The FR model output was validated with remaining 43 (30%) flood points, where 42 points were marked as correct predictions which evinced an accuracy of 97.7% in prediction. A total of 137292 people are living in those vulnerable zones. The flood susceptibility analysis using this model will be very useful and also an efficient tool to the local government administrators, researchers and planners for devising flood mitigation plans.

Techniques for estimating flood hydrographs for ungaged urban watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stricker, V.A.; Sauer, V.B.

1984-01-01

The Clark Method, modified slightly was used to develop a synthetic, dimensionless hydrograph which can be used to estimate flood hydrographs for ungaged urban watersheds. Application of the technique results in a typical (average) flood hydrograph for a given peak discharge. Input necessary to apply the technique is an estimate of basin lagtime and the recurrence interval peak discharge. Equations for this purpose were obtained from a recent nationwide study on flood frequency in urban watersheds. A regression equation was developed which relates flood volumes to drainage area size, basin lagtime, and peak discharge. This equation is useful where storage of floodwater may be a part of design of flood prevention. (USGS)

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Hydrologic and Hydraulic Analyses of Selected Streams in Lorain County, Ohio, 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, K. Scott; Ostheimer, Chad J.; Whitehead, Matthew T.

2003-01-01

Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses were done for selected reaches of nine streams in Lorain County Ohio. To assess the alternatives for flood-damage mitigation, the Lorain County Engineer and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) initiated a cooperative study to investigate aspects of the hydrology and hydraulics of the nine streams. Historical streamflow data and regional regression equations were used to estimate instantaneous peak discharges for floods having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Explanatory variables used in the regression equations were drainage area, main-channel slope, and storage area. Drainage areas of the nine stream reaches studied ranged from 1.80 to 19.3 square miles. The step-backwater model HEC-RAS was used to determine water-surface-elevation profiles for the 10-year-recurrence-interval (10-year) flood along a selected reach of each stream. The water-surface pro-file information was used then to generate digital mapping of flood-plain boundaries. The analyses indicate that at the 10-year flood elevation, road overflow results at numerous hydraulic structures along the nine streams.

Responses to the 2800 years BP climatic oscillation in shallow- and deep-basin sediments from the Dead Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neugebauer, Ina; Brauer, Achim; Schwab, Markus; Dulski, Peter; Frank, Ute; Hadzhiivanova, Elitsa; Kitagawa, Hiroyuki; Litt, Thomas; Schiebel, Vera; Taha, Nimer; Waldmann, Nicolas

2015-04-01

Laminated lake sediments from the Dead Sea basin provide high-resolution records of climatic variability in the eastern Mediterranean region, which is considered being especially sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the study presented here, we aim to reconstruct palaeoclimatic changes and their relation to the frequency of flood/erosion and dust deposition events as archived in the Dead Sea basin for the time interval from ca 3700 to 1700 years BP. A ca 4 m thick, mostly annually laminated (varved) sediment section from the western margin of the Dead Sea (shallow-water DSEn - Ein Gedi profile) was analysed and correlated to the new ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project core 5017-1 from the deep basin. To detect even single event layers, we applied a multi-proxy approach of high-resolution microscopic thin section analyses, µXRF element scanning and magnetic susceptibility measurements, supported by grain size and palynological analyses. Based on radiocarbon and varve dating two pronounced dry periods were detected at ~3500-3300 yrs BP and ~2900-2400 yrs BP that are characterized by a sand deposit during the older dry period and enhanced frequency of coarse detrital layers during the younger dry period in the shallow-water DSEn core, both interpreted as increased erosion processes. In the 5017-1 deep-basin core these dry periods are depicted by halite deposits. The timing of the younger dry period broadly coincides with the Homeric Minimum of solar activity at ca 2800 yrs BP. Our results suggest that during this period the Dead Sea region experienced a change in synoptic weather patterns leading to an increased occurrence of flash-flood events, overprinting the overall dry climatic conditions. Following this dry spell, a 250-yrs period of increased dust deposition is observed, coinciding with more regular aragonite precipitation during less arid climatic conditions.

Spatial and temporal patterns of bank failure during extreme flood events: Evidence of nonlinearity and self-organised criticality at the basin scale?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, C. J.; Croke, J. C.; Grove, J. R.

2012-04-01

Non-linearity in physical systems provides a conceptual framework to explain complex patterns and form that are derived from complex internal dynamics rather than external forcings, and can be used to inform modeling and improve landscape management. One process that has been investigated previously to explore the existence of self-organised critical system (SOC) in river systems at the basin-scale is bank failure. Spatial trends in bank failure have been previously quantified to determine if the distribution of bank failures at the basin scale exhibit the necessary power law magnitude/frequency distributions. More commonly bank failures are investigated at a small-scale using several cross-sections with strong emphasis on local-scale factors such as bank height, cohesion and hydraulic properties. Advancing our understanding of non-linearity in such processes, however, requires many more studies where both the spatial and temporal measurements of the process can be used to investigate the existence or otherwise of non-linearity and self-organised criticality. This study presents measurements of bank failure throughout the Lockyer catchment in southeast Queensland, Australia, which experienced an extreme flood event in January 2011 resulting in the loss of human lives and geomorphic channel change. The most dominant form of fluvial adjustment consisted of changes in channel geometry and notably widespread bank failures, which were readily identifiable as 'scalloped' shaped failure scarps. The spatial extents of these were mapped using high-resolution LiDAR derived digital elevation model and were verified by field surveys and air photos. Pre-flood event LiDAR coverage for the catchment also existed allowing direct comparison of the magnitude and frequency of bank failures from both pre and post-flood time periods. Data were collected and analysed within a GIS framework and investigated for power-law relationships. Bank failures appeared random and occurred throughout the basin but plots of magnitude and frequency did display power-law scaling of failures. In addition, there was a lack of site specific correlations between bank failure and other factors such channel width, bank height and stream power. The data are used here to discuss the existence of SOC in fluvial systems and the relative role of local and basin-wide processes in influencing their distribution in space and time.

Flood frequency analysis and generation of flood hazard indicator maps in a semi-arid environment, case of Ourika watershed (western High Atlas, Morocco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Alaoui El Fels, Abdelhafid; Alaa, Noureddine; Bachnou, Ali; Rachidi, Said

2018-05-01

The development of the statistical models and flood risk modeling approaches have seen remarkable improvements in their productivities. Their application in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in developing countries, can be extremely useful for better assessment and planning of flood risk in order to reduce the catastrophic impacts of this phenomenon. This study focuses on the Setti Fadma region (Ourika basin, Morocco) which is potentially threatened by floods and is subject to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. The study is based on two main axes: (i) the extreme flow frequency analysis, using 12 probability laws adjusted by Maximum Likelihood method and (ii) the generation of the flood risk indicator maps are based on the solution proposed by the Nays2DFlood solver of the Hydrodynamic model of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. The study is used as a spatial high-resolution digital model (Lidar) in order to get the nearest hydrological simulation of the reality. The results showed that the GEV is the most appropriate law of the extreme flows estimation for different return periods. Taking into consideration the mapping of 100-year flood area, the study revealed that the fluvial overflows extent towards the banks of Ourika and consequently, affects some living areas, cultivated fields and the roads that connects the valley to the city of Marrakech. The aim of this study is to propose new technics of the flood risk management allowing a better planning of the flooded areas.

The influence of controlled floods on fine sediment storage in debris fan-affected canyons of the Colorado River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Erich R.; Grams, Paul E.; Schmidt, John C.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Alexander, Jason S.; Kaplinski, Matt

2014-01-01

Prior to the construction of large dams on the Green and Colorado Rivers, annual floods aggraded sandbars in lateral flow-recirculation eddies with fine sediment scoured from the bed and delivered from upstream. Flows greater than normal dam operations may be used to mimic this process in an attempt to increase time-averaged sandbar size. These controlled floods may rebuild sandbars, but sediment deficit conditions downstream from the dams restrict the frequency that controlled floods produce beneficial results. Here, we integrate complimentary, long-term monitoring data sets from the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons downstream from Glen Canyon dam and the Green River in the Canyon of Lodore downstream from Flaming Gorge dam. Since the mid-1990s, several controlled floods have occurred in these canyon rivers. These controlled floods scour fine sediment from the bed and build sandbars in eddies, thus increasing channel relief. These changes are short-lived, however, as interflood dam operations erode sandbars within several months to years. Controlled flood response and interflood changes in bed elevation are more variable in Marble Canyon and Grand Canyon, likely reflecting more variable fine sediment supply and stronger transience in channel bed sediment storage. Despite these differences, neither system shows a trend in fine-sediment storage during the period in which controlled floods were monitored. These results demonstrate that controlled floods build eddy sandbars and increase channel relief for short interflood periods, and this response may be typical in other dam-influenced canyon rivers. The degree to which these features persist depends on the frequency of controlled floods, but careful consideration of sediment supply is necessary to avoid increasing the long-term sediment deficit.

A restoration framework to build coastal wetland resiliency

EPA Science Inventory

An increase in the frequency and intensity of storms and flooding events are adversely impacting coastal wetlands. Coastal wetlands provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including spec...

Numerical Analysis of Flood modeling of upper Citarum River under Extreme Flood Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siregar, R. I.

2018-02-01

This paper focuses on how to approach the numerical method and computation to analyse flood parameters. Water level and flood discharge are the flood parameters solved by numerical methods approach. Numerical method performed on this paper for unsteady flow conditions have strengths and weaknesses, among others easily applied to the following cases in which the boundary irregular flow. The study area is in upper Citarum Watershed, Bandung, West Java. This paper uses computation approach with Force2 programming and HEC-RAS to solve the flow problem in upper Citarum River, to investigate and forecast extreme flood condition. Numerical analysis based on extreme flood events that have occurred in the upper Citarum watershed. The result of water level parameter modeling and extreme flood discharge compared with measurement data to analyse validation. The inundation area about flood that happened in 2010 is about 75.26 square kilometres. Comparing two-method show that the FEM analysis with Force2 programs has the best approach to validation data with Nash Index is 0.84 and HEC-RAS that is 0.76 for water level. For discharge data Nash Index obtained the result analysis use Force2 is 0.80 and with use HEC-RAS is 0.79.

The lived experience of rescuing people who have driven into floodwater: Understanding challenges and identifying areas for providing support.

PubMed

Keech, Jacob J; Smith, Stephanie R; Peden, Amy E; Hagger, Martin S; Hamilton, Kyra

2018-06-11

Drowning is a major public health issue, with risk increasing during times of flood. Driving though floodwater is a major risk factor for flood-related drowning and injury, and despite widespread public health campaigns, many people continue to undertake this risky behaviour and require rescue. We aimed to identify key challenges faced by emergency services personnel when rescuing those who have driven into floodwater, and to identify strategies for supporting rescuers in this important role. Australian flood rescue operators (N=8) who had previously rescued a driver who had driven through floodwater, participated in semi-structured interviews. Data were analysed using thematic analysis. Four challenges emerged from their experiences: Involvement of untrained personnel, varying information provided by emergency telephone operators, behaviour of drivers complicating the rescue, people sightseeing floods or flood rescues, or ignoring closed roads providing sources of distraction and frustration. We propose five strategies for translating these results into practice, including: training and protocol development for (1) emergency personnel and (2) telephone operators, (3) training for rescuers regarding non-compliant rescuees, (4) educating the public, and (5) increasing compliance with closed roads. Current findings provide valuable insights into how rescuers can be supported in performing their roles, and implementation of these strategies has the potential to reduce fatalities occurring due to driving through floodwater. SO WHAT?: The strategies presented have the potential to reduce the frequency and improve the outcomes of floodwater rescues, aiding in the prevention of injury and death. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Estimation of Flood-Frequency Discharges for Rural, Unregulated Streams in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.

2010-01-01

Flood-frequency discharges were determined for 290 streamgage stations having a minimum of 9 years of record in West Virginia and surrounding states through the 2006 or 2007 water year. No trend was determined in the annual peaks used to calculate the flood-frequency discharges. Multiple and simple least-squares regression equations for the 100-year (1-percent annual-occurrence probability) flood discharge with independent variables that describe the basin characteristics were developed for 290 streamgage stations in West Virginia and adjacent states. The regression residuals for the models were evaluated and used to define three regions of the State, designated as Eastern Panhandle, Central Mountains, and Western Plateaus. Exploratory data analysis procedures identified 44 streamgage stations that were excluded from the development of regression equations representative of rural, unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations for the 1.1-, 1.5-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year flood discharges were determined by generalized least-squares regression using data from the remaining 246 streamgage stations. Drainage area was the only significant independent variable determined for all equations in all regions. Procedures developed to estimate flood-frequency discharges on ungaged streams were based on (1) regional equations and (2) drainage-area ratios between gaged and ungaged locations on the same stream. The procedures are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have drainage areas within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations (from 0.21 to 1,461 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle, from 0.10 to 1,619 square miles in the Central Mountains, and from 0.13 to 1,516 square miles in the Western Plateaus). The accuracy of the equations is quantified by measuring the average prediction error (from 21.7 to 56.3 percent) and equivalent years of record (from 2.0 to 70.9 years).

Automating the evaluation of flood damages: methodology and potential gains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eleutério, Julian; Martinez, Edgar Daniel

2010-05-01

The evaluation of flood damage potential consists of three main steps: assessing and processing data, combining data and calculating potential damages. The first step consists of modelling hazard and assessing vulnerability. In general, this step of the evaluation demands more time and investments than the others. The second step of the evaluation consists of combining spatial data on hazard with spatial data on vulnerability. Geographic Information System (GIS) is a fundamental tool in the realization of this step. GIS software allows the simultaneous analysis of spatial and matrix data. The third step of the evaluation consists of calculating potential damages by means of damage-functions or contingent analysis. All steps demand time and expertise. However, the last two steps must be realized several times when comparing different management scenarios. In addition, uncertainty analysis and sensitivity test are made during the second and third steps of the evaluation. The feasibility of these steps could be relevant in the choice of the extent of the evaluation. Low feasibility could lead to choosing not to evaluate uncertainty or to limit the number of scenario comparisons. Several computer models have been developed over time in order to evaluate the flood risk. GIS software is largely used to realise flood risk analysis. The software is used to combine and process different types of data, and to visualise the risk and the evaluation results. The main advantages of using a GIS in these analyses are: the possibility of "easily" realising the analyses several times, in order to compare different scenarios and study uncertainty; the generation of datasets which could be used any time in future to support territorial decision making; the possibility of adding information over time to update the dataset and make other analyses. However, these analyses require personnel specialisation and time. The use of GIS software to evaluate the flood risk requires personnel with a double professional specialisation. The professional should be proficient in GIS software and in flood damage analysis (which is already a multidisciplinary field). Great effort is necessary in order to correctly evaluate flood damages, and the updating and the improvement of the evaluation over time become a difficult task. The automation of this process should bring great advance in flood management studies over time, especially for public utilities. This study has two specific objectives: (1) show the entire process of automation of the second and third steps of flood damage evaluations; and (2) analyse the induced potential gains in terms of time and expertise needed in the analysis. A programming language is used within GIS software in order to automate hazard and vulnerability data combination and potential damages calculation. We discuss the overall process of flood damage evaluation. The main result of this study is a computational tool which allows significant operational gains on flood loss analyses. We quantify these gains by means of a hypothetical example. The tool significantly reduces the time of analysis and the needs for expertise. An indirect gain is that sensitivity and cost-benefit analyses can be more easily realized.

Estimating generalized skew of the log-Pearson Type III distribution for annual peak floods in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oberg, Kevin A.; Mades, Dean M.

1987-01-01

Four techniques for estimating generalized skew in Illinois were evaluated: (1) a generalized skew map of the US; (2) an isoline map; (3) a prediction equation; and (4) a regional-mean skew. Peak-flow records at 730 gaging stations having 10 or more annual peaks were selected for computing station skews. Station skew values ranged from -3.55 to 2.95, with a mean of -0.11. Frequency curves computed for 30 gaging stations in Illinois using the variations of the regional-mean skew technique are similar to frequency curves computed using a skew map developed by the US Water Resources Council (WRC). Estimates of the 50-, 100-, and 500-yr floods computed for 29 of these gaging stations using the regional-mean skew techniques are within the 50% confidence limits of frequency curves computed using the WRC skew map. Although the three variations of the regional-mean skew technique were slightly more accurate than the WRC map, there is no appreciable difference between flood estimates computed using the variations of the regional-mean technique and flood estimates computed using the WRC skew map. (Peters-PTT)

Child malnutrition and recurrent flooding in rural eastern India: a community-based survey

PubMed Central

Ranjan-Dash, Shisir; Degomme, Olivier; Mukhopadhyay, Alok; Guha-Sapir, Debarati

2011-01-01

Objectives This study aims to improve the understanding of the relationship between exposure to floods and malnutrition in children aged 6–59 months in rural India. Research has focused exclusively on Bangladeshi children, and few controlled epidemiological studies are available. Method A community-based cross-sectional study of child nutritional status was carried out in 14 flooded and 18 non-flooded villages of Jagatsinghpur district (Orissa) within one month of the September 2008 floods, and similarly affected by flooding in August 2006. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 757 households in the flooded villages and 816 in the non-flooded communities. Data used in this study were from those households with children aged 6–59 months. In total, 191 and 161 children were measured, respectively. The association between various malnutrition indicators and the exposure to floods was assessed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Results Adjusted analyses revealed that children in flooded households were more likely stunted compared with those in non-flooded ones (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.60; 95% CI 1.05 to 2.44). The prevalence of underweight was also higher in children living in the flooded communities (adjusted prevalence ratio 1.86; 95% CI 1.04 to 3.30). Further analyses found that the 26–36-month flooded cohort, thus those children younger than 1 year during the precedent flood in August 2006, attained the largest difference in levels of stunting compared with the unexposed group of the same age. Conclusion Exposure to floods is associated with long-term malnutrition in these rural communities of Orissa, India. Children exposed to floods during their first year of life presented higher levels of chronic malnutrition. Long-term malnutrition prevention programmes after floods should be implemented in flood-prone areas. PMID:22080535

Response of extreme floods in the southwestern United States to climatic variations in the late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ely, Lisa L.

1997-07-01

A regional synthesis of paleoflood chronologies on rivers in Arizona and southern Utah reveals that the largest floods over the last 5000 years cluster into distinct time periods that are related to regional and global climatic fluctuations. The flood chronologies were constructed using fine-grained slackwater deposits that accumulate in protected areas along the margins of bedrock canyons and selectively preserve evidence of the largest events. High-magnitude floods were frequent on rivers throughout the region from 5000 to 3600 14C yrs BP (dendrocalibrated age = 3800-2200 BC) and increased again after 2200 BP (400 BC), with particularly prominent peaks in magnitude and frequency around 1100-900 BP (AD 900-1100) and after 500 yrs BP (AD 1400). In contrast, the periods 3600-2200 BP (2200-400 BC) and 800-600 yrs BP (1200-1400 AD) are marked by sharp decreases in the occurrence of large floods on these rivers. In the modern record, storms that generate large floods (≥ 10-year) in the region fall into three categories: (1) winter North Pacific frontal storms; (2) late-summer and fall storms that draw in moisture from recurved Pacific tropical cyclones; and (3) summer storms, mainly convective thunderstorms. Winter storms and tropical cyclones are associated with the most severe floods on the rivers in this study, and are the most probable causes of the paleofloods over the last 5000 years. Floods from both winter storms and tropical cyclones occur when deep mid-latitude troughs steer storm systems into the region. Composite anomaly maps of daily 700-mbar heights indicate that these floods are associated with a low-pressure anomaly off the California coast and a high-pressure anomaly over the Aleutians or Gulf of Alaska. A strong connection exists between the negative phase of the Southern Oscillation Index (often associated with El Nin˜o conditions) and the large floods associated with winter storms and tropical cyclones. The paleoflood records confirm the existence of centennial-scale variations in the conditions conducive to the occurrence of extreme floods and flood-generating storms in this region. The episodes with an increased frequency of high-magnitude floods coincide with periods of cool, wet climate in the western U.S., whereas warm intervals, such as the Medieval Warm Period, are times of dramatic decreases in the number of large floods. A positive relationship between the paleofloods and long-term variations in the frequency of El Nin˜o events is evident over the last 1000 years. This relationship continues over at least the last 3000 years with warm coastal sea-surface temperatures indicative of El Nin˜o-like conditions.

A data driven approach using Takagi-Sugeno models for computationally efficient lumped floodplain modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfs, Vincent; Willems, Patrick

2013-10-01

Many applications in support of water management decisions require hydrodynamic models with limited calculation time, including real time control of river flooding, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses by Monte-Carlo simulations, and long term simulations in support of the statistical analysis of the model simulation results (e.g. flood frequency analysis). Several computationally efficient hydrodynamic models exist, but little attention is given to the modelling of floodplains. This paper presents a methodology that can emulate output from a full hydrodynamic model by predicting one or several levels in a floodplain, together with the flow rate between river and floodplain. The overtopping of the embankment is modelled as an overflow at a weir. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are exploited to cope with the varying factors affecting the flow. Different input sets and identification methods are considered in model construction. Because of the dual use of simplified physically based equations and data-driven techniques, the ANFIS consist of very few rules with a low number of input variables. A second calculation scheme can be followed for exceptionally large floods. The obtained nominal emulation model was tested for four floodplains along the river Dender in Belgium. Results show that the obtained models are accurate with low computational cost.

Hydrogeology of an alpine rockfall aquifer system and its role in flood attenuation and maintaining baseflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauber, U.; Kotyla, P.; Morche, D.; Goldscheider, N.

2014-06-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme hydrological events in alpine regions is projected to increase with climate change. The goal of this study was to better understand the functioning of aquifers composed of complex alluvial and rockfall deposits in alpine valleys and to quantify the role of these natural storage spaces in flood attenuation and baseflow maintenance. Geomorphological and hydrogeological mapping, tracer tests, and continuous flow measurements were conducted in the Reintal valley (German Alps), where runoff from a karst spring infiltrates into a series of postglacial alluvial/rockfall aquifers. During high-flow conditions, groundwater velocities of 30 m h-1 were determined along 500 m; hydrograph analyses revealed short lag times (5 h) between discharge peaks upstream and downstream from the aquifer series; the maximum discharge ratio downstream (22) and the peak recession coefficient (0.196 d-1) are low compared with other alpine catchments. During low-flow conditions, the underground flow path length increased to 2 km and groundwater velocities decreased to 13 m h-1. Downstream hydrographs revealed a delayed discharge response after 101 h and peaks dampened by a factor of 1.5. These results indicate that alluvial/rockfall aquifers might play an important role in the flow regime and attenuation of floods in alpine regions.

Hydrogeology of an Alpine rockfall aquifer system and its role in flood attenuation and maintaining baseflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauber, U.; Kotyla, P.; Morche, D.; Goldscheider, N.

2014-11-01

The frequency and intensity of extreme hydrological events in Alpine regions is projected to increase with climate change. The goal of this study is to better understand the functioning of aquifers composed of complex alluvial and rockfall deposits in Alpine valleys and to quantify the role of these natural storage spaces in flood attenuation and baseflow maintenance. Geomorphological and hydrogeological mapping, tracer tests, and continuous flow measurements were conducted in the Reintal (German Alps), where runoff from a karst spring infiltrates a series of postglacial alluvial/rockfall aquifers. During high-flow conditions, groundwater velocities of 30 m h-1 were determined along 500 m; hydrograph analyses revealed short lag times (5 h) between discharge peaks upstream and downstream from the aquifer series; the maximum discharge ratio downstream (22) and the peak recession coefficient (0.196 d-1) are low compared with other Alpine catchments. During low-flow conditions, the underground flow path length increased to 2 km and groundwater velocities decreased to 13 m h-1. Downstream hydrographs revealed a delayed discharge response after 101 h and peaks damped by a factor of 1.5. These results indicate that alluvial/rockfall aquifers might play an important role in the flow regime and attenuation of floods in Alpine regions.

Hydroclimatology of the 2008 Midwest floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budikova, D.; Coleman, J. S. M.; Strope, S. A.; Austin, A.

2010-12-01

The late spring/early summer flooding that occurred in the American Midwest between May and June 2008 resulted from a combination of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that supported a steady influx of moisture into the area. A low pressure system centered over the central-western United States steered a strong jet and associated storms along its eastern edge from the west to southwest and an anomalously strong Great Plains Low Level Jet brought continuous warm and moist air into the area from the Gulf of Mexico into the area. We examine and quantify here the impact these circulation patterns had on the hydroclimatology of the Midwest highlighting the magnitude, frequency, geographic distribution, and temporal evolution of precipitation that ultimately magnified the flooding. Historical precipitation records were used to assess the regional rainfall characteristics at various geographic and time scales. Five distinct hydroclimatic characteristics contributed to the definition of the 2008 flood including persistent high surface soil moisture conditions prior to flooding exasperated by anomalously high rainfall, extreme rainfall totals covering extensive areas, increased frequency of shorter-term, smaller-magnitude events, persistent multiday heavy precipitation events, and extreme flood-producing rain storms. The major flooding lasted for approximately 24 days and most greatly impacted the state of Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and central Indiana. Its occurrence during the May-June period makes the event especially unusual for this region.

Historical floods in the Dutch Rhine Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaser, R.; Stangl, H.

Historical records provide direct information about the climatic impact on society. Especially great natural disasters such as river floods have been for long attracting the attention of humankind. Time series for flood development on the Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn/Lek and IJssel in the Dutch Rhine Delta are presented in this paper. In the case of the Waal it is even possible to compare historical flood frequencies based on documentary data with the recent development reconstructed from standardized instrumental measurements. In brief, we will also discuss various parameters concerning the structure of the flood series and the "human dimension" of natural disaster, i.e. the vulnerability of society when facing natural disasters.

Handbook for Federal Insurance Administration: Flood-insurance studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, E.J.

1973-01-01

A flood insurance study, made for the Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is an analysis of flood inundation frequency for all flood plains within the corporate limits of the community being studied. The study is an application of surveying, hydrology, and hydraulics to determine flood insurance premium rates. Much of the surveying needed can be done by private firms, either by ground methods or photogrammetry. Contracts are needed to let large surveys but purchase orders can be used for small ones. Photogrammetric stereo models, digital regression models, and step-backwater models are needed for most studies. Damage survey data are not involved.

44 CFR 65.6 - Revision of base flood elevation determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program... new discharge estimates. (6) Any computer program used to perform hydrologic or hydraulic analyses in... control and/or the regulation of flood plain lands. For computer programs adopted by non-Federal agencies...

44 CFR 65.6 - Revision of base flood elevation determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program... new discharge estimates. (6) Any computer program used to perform hydrologic or hydraulic analyses in... control and/or the regulation of flood plain lands. For computer programs adopted by non-Federal agencies...

44 CFR 65.6 - Revision of base flood elevation determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program... new discharge estimates. (6) Any computer program used to perform hydrologic or hydraulic analyses in... control and/or the regulation of flood plain lands. For computer programs adopted by non-Federal agencies...

44 CFR 65.6 - Revision of base flood elevation determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program... new discharge estimates. (6) Any computer program used to perform hydrologic or hydraulic analyses in... control and/or the regulation of flood plain lands. For computer programs adopted by non-Federal agencies...

Flood hazards studies in the Mississippi River basin using remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rango, A.; Anderson, A. T.

1974-01-01

The Spring 1973 Mississippi River flood was investigated using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1. Both manual and automatic analyses of the data indicated that ERTS-1 is extremely useful as a regional tool for flood mamagement. Quantitative estimates of area flooded were made in St. Charles County, Missouri and Arkansas. Flood hazard mapping was conducted in three study areas along the Mississippi River using pre-flood ERTS-1 imagery enlarged to 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale. Initial results indicate that ERTS-1 digital mapping of flood prone areas can be performed at 1:62,500 which is comparable to some conventional flood hazard map scales.

Documentary evidence of historical floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden 1400-1800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retsö, D.

2014-09-01

This article explores documentary evidence of floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden in the pre-instrumental period (1400-1800). The survey shows that two subperiods can be considered as flood-rich, 1590-1670 and the early 18th century. The result is related to a low degree of human impact on hydrology during the period, and suggest that climatic factors, such as lower temperatures and increased precipitation connected to the so called Little Ice Age, should be considered as the main driver behind flood frequency and magnitude.

Streamflow model of Wisconsin River for estimating flood frequency and volume

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krug, William R.; House, Leo B.

1980-01-01

The 100-year flood peak at Wisconsin Dells, computed from the simulated, regulated streamflow data for the period 1915-76, is 82,000 cubic feet per second, including the effects of all the reservoirs in the river system, as they are currently operated. It also includes the effects of Lakes Du Bay, Petenwell, and Castle Rock which are significant for spring floods but are insignificant for summer or fall floods because they are normally maintained nearly full in the summer and fall and have very little storage for floodwaters. (USGS)

The efficacy of stream power and flow duration on geomorphic responses to catastrophic flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magilligan, F. J.; Buraas, E. M.; Renshaw, C. E.

2015-01-01

Geomorphologists have long studied the impacts of extreme floods, yet the association between the magnitude of flow parameters (discharge, velocity, shear stress, or stream power) and resulting geomorphic effectiveness remains vague and non-deterministic. Attempts have been made to include flow duration and total expenditure of stream power, in combination with peak unit stream power, as important variables, but there has been minimal exploration of this hydraulic combination. Taking advantage of Tropical Storm Irene's rapid track through eastern Vermont (USA) in late summer 2011, this paper presents the array of geomorphic responses to a short duration (time to peak of < 8 h) but high magnitude flood that was the twentieth century flood of record for numerous watersheds. We present herein the geomorphic imprint of Tropical Storm Irene flooding within a larger context of fluvial theory concerning the role of, and trade-off between, the magnitude of energy expenditure during a flood and its duration. Focusing on a detailed field effort within the 187-km2 Saxtons River basin in southeastern VT, augmented by select sites along the adjacent lower gradient Williams River (291-km2), we elucidate (1) the geomorphic effects of a short duration flood in a humid, well-vegetated landscape; (2) the relationship between geomorphic response and (a) peak stream power, (b) total stream power, and (c) flow duration of stream power above a critical threshold; and (3) the spatial variation of geomorphic effects relative to reach-scale geologic and geomorphic controls. Flooding associated with Tropical Storm Irene ranged from the 1000 year recurrence interval (RI) flood (based on Weibull flood frequency analysis) to the 300 year RI flood (log Pearson Type III). Discharges spawned a peak unit stream power of 712 W/m2 (Saxtons River) and 361 W/m2 (Williams River), with total energy expenditure throughout the event of ~ 16,000 × 103 and 15,000 × 103 J, respectively. For the Saxtons River, channel widening was spatially infrequent and limited in magnitude; however, other geomorphic effects were profound (1) the entrainment, transport, and deposition of extremely coarse material; (2) stripping of floodplain surfaces; (3) channel avulsions and incision into Pleistocene-aged material; and (4) deposition of coarse material across floodplains. Based on our extensive field data and hydrologic/hydraulic analyses, we contend that short duration, high energy flows can have profound sedimentological effects but have limited erosive, channel widening impacts. Gravel entrainment and deposition of a catastrophic nature can certainly occur under these flow regimes, but the impacts of these extreme flows on channel geometry may have limited expression.

Floodflow characteristics at proposed bridge site on Fishkill Creek, Fishkill, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zembrzuski, Thomas J.; Dunn, Bernard

1976-01-01

An evaluation of floodflow characteristics of Fishkill Creek at the proposed bridge site at Fishkill, N.Y., was made for the 50- and 100-year floods. The flood-frequency analysis revealed that the magnitude of the 50- and 100-year floods are 8,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) and 10,000 cfs, respectively. The normal water-surface elevation at the approach cross section was determined by the slope-conveyance method to be 209.8 feet during a 50-year flood and 210.8 feet during a 100-year flood. Also included is an analysis of the effect of the existing bridge and of two alternative bridge designs on the profiles of floods having recurrence intervals of 50 and 100 years. (Woodard-USGS)

The use of sediment deposition maps as auxiliary data for hydraulic model calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukolwe, Micah; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Solomatine, Dimitri

2013-04-01

One aspect of the French disaster mitigation setup is the statutory Risk Prevention Plans (PPR, Plans de Prévention des Risques); i.e. spatial identification of potential disasters and mitigation measures. The maps are categorised into three zones depicting increasing disaster severity and potential mitigation measures (RTM, 1999). Taking the example of the city of Barcelonnette, in South France (French Alps), floods have been the most frequent occurring natural hazard (Flageollet et al., 1996). Consequently, a case is put forward for the need for accurate flood extent delineation to support the decision making process. For this study, the Barcelonnette case study was considered, whereby the last devastating flooding was in June 1957 (Weber, 1994). Contrary to the recent advances in the proliferation of data to support flood inundation studies (Bates, 2012; Bates, 2004; Di Baldassarre and Uhlenbrook, 2012; Schumann et al., 2009), constraints are faced when analysing flood inundation events that occurred before the 1970's. In absence of frequent flooding, the analysis of historical flood extents may play an important role in shaping the awareness of local stakeholders and support land-use and urban planning. This study is part of a probabilistic flood mapping (e.g. Di Baldassarre et al., 2010, Horrit, 2006) of the valley carried out in a Monte-Carlo framework, while taking into account the peak flow and the parametric uncertainty. The simulations were carried out using the sub-grid channel model extension of the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model (Bates et al, 2010; Neal et al., 2012). Sediment deposition maps (Lecarpentier, 1963) were used to analyse the model performance, additionally the graduation of the sediment deposition sizes showed the flood propagation and was used to analyse the model runs. However, there still remains the challenge of quantifying the uncertainty in the sediment deposition map and the actual flood extent.

Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years.

PubMed

Glur, Lukas; Wirth, Stefanie B; Büntgen, Ulf; Gilli, Adrian; Haug, Gerald H; Schär, Christoph; Beer, Jürg; Anselmetti, Flavio S

2013-09-26

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

Validation of a 30m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, C. C.; Wing, O.; Smith, A.; Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.

2017-12-01

We present a 30m resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the entire conterminous US that has been used to simulate continent-wide flood extent for ten return periods. The model uses a highly efficient numerical solution of the shallow water equations to simulate fluvial flooding in catchments down to 50 km2 and pluvial flooding in all catchments. We use the US National Elevation Dataset (NED) to determine topography for the model and the US Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset to explicitly represent known flood defences. Return period flows and rainfall intensities are estimated using regionalized frequency analyses. We validate these simulations against the complete catalogue of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area maps. We also compare the results obtained from the NED-based continental model with results from a 90m resolution global hydraulic model built using SRTM terrain and identical boundary conditions. Where the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas are based on high quality local models the NED-based continental scale model attains a Hit Rate of 86% and a Critical Success Index (CSI) of 0.59; both are typical of scores achieved when comparing high quality reach-scale models to observed event data. The NED model also consistently outperformed the coarser SRTM model. The correspondence between the continental model and FEMA improves in temperate areas and for basins above 400 km2. Given typical hydraulic modeling uncertainties in the FEMA maps, it is probable that the continental-scale model can replicate them to within error. The continental model covers the entire continental US, compared to only 61% for FEMA, and also maps flooding in smaller watersheds not included in the FEMA coverage. The simulations were performed using computing hardware costing less than 100k, whereas the FEMA flood layers are built from thousands of individual local studies that took several decades to develop at an estimated cost (up to 2013) of 4.5 - $7.5bn. The continental model is relatively straightforward to modify and could be re-run under different scenarios, such as climate change. The results show that continental-scale models may now offer sufficient rigor to inform some decision-making needs with far lower cost and greater coverage than traditional patchwork approaches.

Sea-level Rise Increases the Frequency of Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari Rostamkhani, H.; Aghakouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Feldman, D.; Sweet, W.; Matthew, R.; Luke, A.

2015-12-01

The global warming-drivensea-level rise (SLR) posesa serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. The rate of SLR is accelerated in recent decades and is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gas emissions. Over the 20th century, an increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has been reported due to the reduced gap between tidal datum and flood stage. Nuisance flooding (NF), however non-destructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take the projected SLR under the least and the most extreme representative concentration pathways (e.gRCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) to estimate the increase in NF in the near- (2030) and mid-term (2050) future. The results suggest that projected SLR will cause up to two-fold more frequent NF by 2050, compared with the 20th century. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks especially in rapidly urbanized coastal regions.

Flood frequency approach in a Mediterranean Flash Flood basin. A case study in the Besòs catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco, D.; Zanon, F.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Borga, M.

2009-04-01

Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the Mediterranean areas. In particular, the region of Catalonia (North-East Spain) is one of the most affected by flash floods in the Iberian Peninsula. The high rainfall intensities generating these events, the specific terrain characteristics giving rise to very fast hydrological responses and the high variability in space and time of both rain and land surface, are the main features of FF and also the main cause of their extreme complexity. Distributed hydrological models have been developed to increase the flow forecast resolution in order to implement effective operational warning systems. Some studies have shown how the distributed-models accuracy is highly sensitive to reduced computational grid scale, so, hydrological model uncertainties must be studied. In these conditions, an estimation of the modeling uncertainty (whatever the accuracy is) becomes highly valuable information to enhance our ability to predict the occurrence of flash flooding. The statistical-distributed modeling approach (Reed, 2004) is proposed in the present study to simulate floods on a small basin and account for hydrologic modeling uncertainty. The Besòs catchment (1020 km2), near Barcelona, has been selected in this study to apply the proposed flood frequency methodology. Hydrometeorological data is available for 11 rain-gauges and 6 streamflow gauges in the last 12 years, and a total of 9 flood events have been identified and analyzed in this study. The DiCHiTop hydrological model (Corral, 2004) was developed to fit operational requirements in the Besòs catchment: distributed, robust and easy to implement. It is a grid-based model that works at a given resolution (here at 1 × 1 km2, the hydrological cell), defining a simplified drainage system at this scale. A loss function is applied at the hydrological cell resolution, provided by a coupled storage model between the SCS model (Mockus, 1957) in urban areas and Topmodel (Beven & Kirkby, 1979) in rural and forested areas. The distributed hydrological model is calibrated using observed streamflow information from the available events. Simulated peak discharges are then compared to observed discharges in these gauged cells, so the relative forecast errors are estimated for all the events. Flood frequency is introduced in the analysis in order to derive probability functions for relative flow error. The next step consists in the extension of the flood frequency error patterns to the corresponding subbasins so it is possible to characterize the accuracy of the simulation in the uncalibrated cells (typically ungaged basins). As a result, the operational flood simulation at every cell in the Besos catchment can be checked and validated (in a first approach) in terms of occurrence. Thus, the distributed warning system can take advantage of the modeling uncertainties for operational tasks.

Impacts of Climate Change On The Occurrence of Extreme Events: The Mice Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palutikof, J. P.; Mice Team

It is widely accepted that climate change due to global warming will have substan- tial impacts on the natural environment, and on human activities. Furthermore, it is increasingly recognized that changes in the severity and frequency of extreme events, such as windstorm and flood, are likely to be more important than changes in the average climate. The EU-funded project MICE (Modelling the Impacts of Climate Extremes) commenced in January 2002. It seeks to identify the likely changes in the occurrence of extremes of rainfall, temperature and windstorm due to global warm- ing, using information from climate models as a basis, and to study the impacts of these changes in selected European environments. The objectives are: a) to evaluate, by comparison with gridded and station observations, the ability of climate models to successfully reproduce the occurrence of extremes at the required spatial and temporal scales. b) to analyse model output with respect to future changes in the occurrence of extremes. Statistical analyses will determine changes in (i) the return periods of ex- tremes, (ii) the joint probability of extremes (combinations of damaging events such as windstorm followed by heavy rain), (iii) the sequential behaviour of extremes (whether events are well-separated or clustered) and (iv) the spatial patterns of extreme event occurrence across Europe. The range of uncertainty in model predictions will be ex- plored by analysing changes in model experiments with different spatial resolutions and forcing scenarios. c) to determine the impacts of the predicted changes in extremes occurrence on selected activity sectors: agriculture (Mediterranean drought), commer- cial forestry and natural forest ecosystems (windstorm and flood in northern Europe, fire in the Mediterranean), energy use (temperature extremes), tourism (heat stress and Mediterranean beach holidays, changes in the snow pack and winter sports ) and civil protection/insurance (windstorm and flood). Impacts will be evaluated through a combination of techniques ranging from quantitative analyses through to expert judge- ment. Throughout the project, a continuing dialogue with stakeholders and end-users will be maintained.

Assessment of the spatial scaling behaviour of floods in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria

2017-04-01

Floods are among the most dangerous natural hazards, causing loss of life and significant damage to private and public property. Regional flood-frequency analysis (FFA) methods are essential tools to assess the flood hazard and plan interventions for its mitigation. FFA methods are often based on the well-known index flood method that assumes the invariance of the coefficient of variation of floods with drainage area. This assumption is equivalent to the simple scaling or self-similarity assumption for peak floods, i.e. their spatial structure remains similar in a particular, relatively simple, way to itself over a range of scales. Spatial scaling of floods has been evaluated at national scale for different countries such as Canada, USA, and Australia. According our knowledge. Such a study has not been conducted for the United Kingdom even though the standard FFA method there is based on the index flood assumption. In this work we present an integrated approach to assess of the spatial scaling behaviour of floods in the United Kingdom using three different methods: product moments (PM), probability weighted moments (PWM), and quantile analysis (QA). We analyse both instantaneous and daily annual observed maximum floods and performed our analysis both across the entire country and in its sub-climatic regions as defined in the Flood Studies Report (NERC, 1975). To evaluate the relationship between the k-th moments or quantiles and the drainage area we used both regression with area alone and multiple regression considering other explanatory variables to account for the geomorphology, amount of rainfall, and soil type of the catchments. The latter multiple regression approach was only recently demonstrated being more robust than the traditional regression with area alone that can lead to biased estimates of scaling exponents and misinterpretation of spatial scaling behaviour. We tested our framework on almost 600 rural catchments in UK considered as entire region and split in 11 sub-regions with 50 catchments per region on average. Preliminary results from the three different spatial scaling methods are generally in agreement and indicate that: i) only some of the peak flow variability is explained by area alone (approximately 50% for the entire country and ranging between the 40% and 70% for the sub-regions); ii) this percentage increases to 90% for the entire country and ranges between 80% and 95% for the sub-regions when the multiple regression is used; iii) the simple scaling hypothesis holds in all sub-regions with the exception of weak multi-scaling found in the regions 2 (North), and 5 and 6 (South East). We hypothesize that these deviations can be explained by heterogeneity in large scale precipitation and by the influence of the soil type (predominantly chalk) on the flood formation process in regions 5 and 6.

Prediction of flood quantiles at ungaged watersheds in Louisiana : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-12-01

Four popular regional flood frequency methods were compared using Louisiana stream flow series. The state was divided into four homogeneous regions and all undistorted, long-term stream gages were used in the analysis. The GEV, TCEV, regional LP3 and...

Attribution of floods in the Okavango basin, Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolski, Piotr; Stone, Dáithí; Tadross, Mark; Wehner, Michael; Hewitson, Bruce

2014-04-01

In the charismatic wetlands of the Okavango Delta, Botswana, the annual floods of 2009-2011 reached magnitudes last seen 20-30 years ago, considerably affecting life of local populations and the economically important tourism industry. In this study, we analyse results from an attribution modelling system designed to examine how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to weather and flood risk in our current climate. The system is based on comparison of real world climate and hydrological simulations with parallel counterfactual simulations of the climate and hydrological responses under conditions that might have been had human activities not emitted greenhouse gases. The analyses allow us to address the question of whether anthropogenic climate change contributed to increasing the risk of these high flood events in the Okavango system. Results show that the probability of occurrence of high floods during 2009-2011 in the current climate is likely lower than it would have been in a climate without anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This result is robust across the two climate models and various data processing procedures, although the exact figures for the associated decrease in risk differ. Results also differ between the three years examined, indicating that the “time-slice” method used here needs to be applied to multiple years in order to accurately estimate the contribution of emissions to current risk. Simple sensitivity analyses indicate that the reduction in flood risk is attributed to higher temperatures (and thus evaporation) in the current world, with little difference in the analysed domain's rainfall simulated in the two scenarios.

Changing pattern of natural hazards due to extreme hydro-meteorological conditions (Apulia, southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polemio, Maurizio; Lonigro, Teresa

2013-04-01

Recent international researches have underlined the evidences of climate changes throughout the world. Among the consequences of climate change, there is the increase in the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters, such as droughts, windstorms, heat waves, landslides, floods and secondary floods (i.e. rapid accumulation or pounding of surface water with very low flow velocity). The Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) can be defined as the occurrence of one or more simultaneous aforementioned phenomena causing damages. They represent a serious problem, especially in DHE-prone areas with growing urbanisation. In these areas the increasing frequency of extreme hydrological events could be related to climate variations and/or urban development. The historical analysis of DHEs can support decision making and land-use planning, ultimately reducing natural risks. The paper proposes a methodology, based on both historical and time series approaches, used for describing the influence of climatic variability on the number of phenomena observed. The historical approach is finalised to collect phenomenon historical data. The historical flood and landslide data are important for the comprehension of the evolution of a study area and for the estimation of risk scenarios as a basis for civil protection purposes. Phenomenon historical data is useful for expanding the historical period of investigation in order to assess the occurrence trend of DHEs. The time series approach includes the collection and the statistical analysis of climatic and rainfall data (monthly rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature data together with the annual maximum of short-duration rainfall data, from 1 hour to 5 days), which are also used as a proxy for floods and landslides. The climatic and rainfall data are useful to characterise the climate variations and trends and to roughly assess the effects of these trends on river discharge and on the triggering of landslides. The time series approach is completed by tools to analyse simultaneously all data types. The methodology was tested considering a selected Italian region (Apulia, southern Italy). The data were collected in two databases: a damaging hydrogeological event database (1186 landslides and floods since 1918) and a climate database (from 1877; short-duration rainfall from 1921). A statistically significant decreasing trend of rainfall intensity and an increasing trend of temperature, landslides, and DHEs were observed. A generalised decreasing trend of short-duration rainfall was observed. If there is not an evident relationship between climate variability and the variability of DHE occurrences, the role of anthropogenic modifications (increasing use or misuse of flood- and landslide-prone areas) could be hypothesized to justify the increasing occurrences of floods and landslides.. This study identifies the advantages of a simplifying approach to reduce the intrinsic complexities of the spatial-temporal analysis of climate variability, permitting the simultaneous analysis of the modification of flood and landslide occurrences.

Conceptualization of a Collaborative Decision Making for Flood Disaster Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Aishah Zubir, Siti; Thiruchelvam, Sivadass; Nasharuddin Mustapha, Kamal; Che Muda, Zakaria; Ghazali, Azrul; Hakimie, Hazlinda; Razak, Normy Norfiza Abdul; Aziz Mat Isa, Abdul; Hasini, Hasril; Sahari, Khairul Salleh Mohamed; Mat Husin, Norhayati; Ezanee Rusli, Mohd; Sabri Muda, Rahsidi; Mohd Sidek, Lariyah; Basri, Hidayah; Tukiman, Izawati

2016-03-01

Flooding is the utmost major natural hazard in Malaysia in terms of populations affected, frequency, area extent, flood duration and social economic damage. The recent flood devastation towards the end of 2014 witnessed almost 250,000 people being displaced from eight states in Peninsular Malaysia. The affected victims required evacuation within a short period of time to the designated evacuation centres. An effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life-saving. Effective flood disaster management requires collective and cooperative emergency teamwork from various government agencies. Intergovernmental collaborations among government agencies at different levels have become part of flood disaster management due to the need for sharing resources and coordinating efforts. Collaborative decision making during disaster is an integral element in providing prompt and effective response for evacuating the victims.

Past and present floods in South Moravia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brázdil, Rudolf; Chromá, Kateřina; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Valášek, Hubert; Dolák, Lukáš; Stachoň, Zdeněk; Soukalová, Eva; Dobrovolný, Petr

2015-04-01

Floods represent the most destructive natural phenomena in the Czech Republic, often causing great material damage or loss of human life. Systematic instrumental measurements of water levels in Moravia (the eastern part of the Czech Republic) started mainly in the 1880s-1890s, while for discharges it was in the 1910s-1920s. Different documentary evidence allows extension of our knowledge about floods prior the instrumental period. The paper presents long-term flood chronologies for four South Moravian rivers: the Jihlava, the Svratka, the Dyje and the Morava. Different documentary data are used to extract floods. Taxation records are of particular importance among them. Since the mid-17th century, damage to property and land (fields, meadows, pastures or gardens) entitled farmers and landowners to request a tax relief. Related documents of this administration process kept mainly in Moravian Land Archives in Brno allow to obtain detail information about floods and their impacts. Selection of floods in the instrumental period is based on calculation of N-year return period of peak water levels and/or peak discharges for selected hydrological stations of the corresponding rivers (with return period of two years and more). Final flood chronologies combine floods derived from both documentary data and hydrological measurements. Despite greater inter-decadal variability, periods of higher flood frequency are c. 1821-1850 and 1921-1950 for all four rivers; for the Dyje and Morava rivers also 1891-1900. Flood frequency fluctuations are further compared with other Central European rivers. Uncertainties in created chronologies with respect to data and methods used for compilation of long-term series and anthropogenic changes in river catchments are discussed. The study is a part of the research project "Hydrometeorological extremes in Southern Moravia derived from documentary evidence" supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic, reg. no. 13-19831S.

Streamflow in the upper Santa Cruz River basin, Santa Cruz and Pima Counties, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Condes de la Torre, Alberto

1970-01-01

Streamflow records obtained in the upper Santa Cruz River basin of southern Arizona, United States, and northern Sonora, Mexico, have been analyzed to aid in the appraisal of the surface-water resources of the area. Records are available for 15 sites, and the length of record ranges from 60 years for the gaging station on the Santa .Cruz River at Tucson to 6 years for Pantano Wash near Vail. The analysis provides information on flow duration, low-flow frequency magnitude, flood-volume frequency and magnitude, and storage requirements to maintain selected draft rates. Flood-peak information collected from the gaging stations has been projected on a regional basis from which estimates of flood magnitude and frequency may be made for any site in the basin. Most streams in the 3,503-square-mile basin are ephemeral. Ground water sustains low flows only at Santa Cruz River near Nogales, Sonoita Creek near Patagonia, and Pantano Wash near Vail. Elsewhere, flow occurs only in direct response to precipitation. The median number of days per year in which there is no flow ranges from 4 at Sonoita Creek near Patagonia to 335 at Rillito Creek near Tomson. The streamflow is extremely variable from year to year, and annual flows have a coefficient of variation close to or exceeding unity at most stations. Although the amount of flow in the basin is small most of the time, the area is subject to floods. Most floods result from high-intensity precipitation caused by thunderstorms during the period ,July to September. Occasionally, when snowfall at the lower altitudes is followed by rain, winter floods produce large volumes of flow.

Mendenhall Glacier (Juneau, Alaska) icequake seismicity and its relationship to the 2012 outburst flood and other environmental forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, P. M.; Walter, J. I.; Peng, Z.; Amundson, J. M.; Meng, X.

2013-12-01

Glacial outburst floods occur when ice-dammed lakes or other reservoirs on the glacier release large volumes of water usually due to the failure of an ice dam. In 2011 and 2012 these types of floods have occurred at Mendenhall Glacier in Southeast Alaska, 15 km northwest of Juneau. The floods emanated from a lake within a remnant branch of Mendenhall Glacier, called Suicide Basin, and rapidly changed the levels of Mendenhall Lake. Homes on the shore of Mendenhall Lake were threatened by rapidly rising lake levels during such floods. We analyze data from a set of 4 short and broadband period seismometers placed in ice-boreholes in an array on Mendenhall Glacier for a period of 4 months in 2012. We also examine the outburst flood that occurred between July 4th and 8th 2012. We first manually pick icequakes as high-frequency bursts recorded by at least two stations. Next, we use a matched-filter technique to help complete the icequake record by detecting missed events with similar waveforms to those hand-picked events. While high-frequency noise was present during the flooding, the impulsive icequake activity did not appear to be modulated significantly during periods of flooding, suggesting that the flooding does not significantly deform the overlying ice. Impulsive icequake activity appears to show strongly diurnal periodicity, indicating that the icequakes were mainly caused by expansion/contraction of ice during daytime. We also analyze the activity in concert with GPS velocity and meteorological data from the area. By analyzing the temporal and spatial patterns of the events we hope to reveal more about the fundamental processes occurring beneath Mendenhall Glacier.

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Application of at-site peak-streamflow frequency analyses for very low annual exceedance probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Kiang, Julie E.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2017-07-17

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has investigated statistical methods for probabilistic flood hazard assessment to provide guidance on very low annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimation of peak-streamflow frequency and the quantification of corresponding uncertainties using streamgage-specific data. The term “very low AEP” implies exceptionally rare events defined as those having AEPs less than about 0.001 (or 1 × 10–3 in scientific notation or for brevity 10–3). Such low AEPs are of great interest to those involved with peak-streamflow frequency analyses for critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. Flood frequency analyses at streamgages are most commonly based on annual instantaneous peak streamflow data and a probability distribution fit to these data. The fitted distribution provides a means to extrapolate to very low AEPs. Within the United States, the Pearson type III probability distribution, when fit to the base-10 logarithms of streamflow, is widely used, but other distribution choices exist. The USGS-PeakFQ software, implementing the Pearson type III within the Federal agency guidelines of Bulletin 17B (method of moments) and updates to the expected moments algorithm (EMA), was specially adapted for an “Extended Output” user option to provide estimates at selected AEPs from 10–3 to 10–6. Parameter estimation methods, in addition to product moments and EMA, include L-moments, maximum likelihood, and maximum product of spacings (maximum spacing estimation). This study comprehensively investigates multiple distributions and parameter estimation methods for two USGS streamgages (01400500 Raritan River at Manville, New Jersey, and 01638500 Potomac River at Point of Rocks, Maryland). The results of this study specifically involve the four methods for parameter estimation and up to nine probability distributions, including the generalized extreme value, generalized log-normal, generalized Pareto, and Weibull. Uncertainties in streamflow estimates for corresponding AEP are depicted and quantified as two primary forms: quantile (aleatoric [random sampling] uncertainty) and distribution-choice (epistemic [model] uncertainty). Sampling uncertainties of a given distribution are relatively straightforward to compute from analytical or Monte Carlo-based approaches. Distribution-choice uncertainty stems from choices of potentially applicable probability distributions for which divergence among the choices increases as AEP decreases. Conventional goodness-of-fit statistics, such as Cramér-von Mises, and L-moment ratio diagrams are demonstrated in order to hone distribution choice. The results generally show that distribution choice uncertainty is larger than sampling uncertainty for very low AEP values.

Long-distance flights and high-risk breeding by nomadic waterbirds on desert salt lakes.

PubMed

Pedler, Reece D; Ribot, Raoul F H; Bennett, Andrew T D

2018-02-01

Understanding and conserving mobile species presents complex challenges, especially for animals in stochastic or changing environments. Nomadic waterbirds must locate temporary water in arid biomes where rainfall is highly unpredictable in space and time. To achieve this they need to travel over vast spatial scales and time arrival to exploit pulses in food resources. How they achieve this is an enduring mystery.  We investigated these challenges in the colonial-nesting Banded Stilt (Cladorhynchus leucocephalus), a nomadic shorebird of conservation concern. Hitherto, Banded Stilts were hypothesized to have only 1-2 chances to breed during their long lifetime, when flooding rain fills desert salt lakes, triggering mass-hatching of brine shrimp. Over 6 years, we satellite tagged 57 individuals, conducted 21 aerial surveys to detect nesting colonies on 14 Australian desert salt lakes, and analyzed 3 decades of Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to quantify salt-lake flood frequency and extent. Within days of distant inland rainfall, Banded Stilts flew 1,000-2,000 km to reach flooded salt lakes. On arrival, females laid over half their body weight in eggs. We detected nesting episodes across the species' range at 7 times the frequency reported during the previous 80 years. Nesting colonies of thousands formed following minor floods, yet most were subsequently abandoned when the water rapidly evaporated prior to egg hatching. Satellite imagery revealed twice as many flood events sufficient for breeding-colony initiation as recorded colonies, suggesting that nesting at remote sites has been underdetected. Individuals took risk on uncertain breeding opportunities by responding to frequent minor flood events between infrequent extensive flooding, exemplifying the extreme adaptability and trade-offs of species exploiting unstable environments. The conservation challenges of nest predation by overabundant native gulls and anthropogenic modifications to salt lakes filling frequencies require investigation, as do the physiological and navigational mechanisms that enable such extreme strategies. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

High Risk Flash Flood Rainstorm Mapping Based on Regional L-moments Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Hui; Liao, Yifan; Lin, Bingzhang

2017-04-01

Difficulties and complexities in elaborating flash flood early-warning and forecasting system prompt hydrologists to develop some techniques to substantially reduce the disastrous outcome of a flash flood in advance. An ideal to specify those areas that are subject at high risk to flash flood in terms of rainfall intensity in a relatively large region is proposed in this paper. It is accomplished through design of the High Risk Flash Flood Rainstorm Area (HRFFRA) based on statistical analysis of historical rainfall data, synoptic analysis of prevailing storm rainfalls as well as the field survey of historical flash flood events in the region. A HRFFRA is defined as the area potentially under hitting by higher intense-precipitation for a given duration with certain return period that may cause a flash flood disaster in the area. This paper has presented in detail the development of the HRFFRA through the application of the end-to-end Regional L-moments Approach (RLMA) to precipitation frequency analysis in combination with the technique of spatial interpolation in Jiangxi Province, South China Mainland. Among others, the concept of hydrometeorologically homogenous region, the precision of frequency analysis in terms of parameter estimation, the accuracy of quantiles in terms of uncertainties and the consistency adjustments of quantiles over durations and space, etc., have been addressed. At the end of this paper, the mapping of the HRFFRA and an internet-based visualized user-friendly data-server of the HRFFRA are also introduced. Key words: HRFFRA; Flash Flood; RLMA; rainfall intensity; Hydrometeorological homogenous region.

Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall: Dam Mitigate Flood Risk in Mekong

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Ruby Leung, L.

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-MK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the MRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, dam construction and stream regulation reduce flood risk consistently throughout this century, withmore » more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.« less

Vertical accretion sand proxies of gaged floods along the upper Little Tennessee River, Blue Ridge Mountains, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leigh, David S.

2018-02-01

Understanding environmental hazards presented by river flooding has been enhanced by paleoflood analysis, which uses sedimentary records to document floods beyond historical records. Bottomland overbank deposits (e.g., natural levees, floodbasins, meander scars, low terraces) have the potential as continuous paleoflood archives of flood frequency and magnitude, but they have been under-utilized because of uncertainty about their ability to derive flood magnitude estimates. The purpose of this paper is to provide a case study that illuminates tremendous potential of bottomland overbank sediments as reliable proxies of both flood frequency and magnitude. Methods involve correlation of particle-size measurements of the coarse tail of overbank deposits (> 0.25 mm sand) from three separate sites with historical flood discharge records for the upper Little Tennessee River in the Blue Ridge Mountains of the southeastern United States. Results show that essentially all floods larger than a 20% probability event can be detected by the coarse tail of particle-size distributions, especially if the temporal resolution of sampling is annual or sub-annual. Coarser temporal resolution (1.0 to 2.5 year sample intervals) provides an adequate record of large floods, but is unable to discriminate individual floods separated by only one to three years. Measurements of > 0.25 mm sand that are normalized against a smoothed trend line through the down-column data produce highly significant correlations (R2 values of 0.50 to 0.60 with p-values of 0.004 to < 0.001) between sand peak values and flood peak discharges, indicating that flood magnitude can be reliably estimated. In summary, bottomland overbank deposits can provide excellent continuous records of paleofloods when the following conditions are met: 1) Stable depositional sites should be chosen; 2) Analysis should concentrate on the coarse tails of particle-size distributions; 3) Sampling of sediment intervals should achieve annual or better resolution; 4) Time-series data of particle-size should be detrended to minimize variation from dynamic aspects of fluvial sedimentation that are not related to flood magnitude; and 5) Multiple sites should be chosen to allow for replication of findings.

Estimation of frequency based flood peaks for an ungauged watershed using field calibration : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-01

The present study has been conducted to evaluate eight flood prediction models for an ungauged small watershed. These models are either frequently used by or were developed by Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (LADOTD). The eight...

Comparison of flood frequency estimates from synthetic and observed data on small drainage areas in Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colson, B.E.

1986-01-01

In 1964 the U.S. Geological Survey in Mississippi expanded the small stream gaging network for collection of rainfall and runoff data to 92 stations. To expedite availability of flood frequency information a rainfall-runoff model using available long-term rainfall data was calibrated to synthesize flood peaks. Results obtained from observed annual peak flow data for 51 sites having 16 yr to 30 yr of annual peaks are compared with the synthetic results. Graphical comparison of the 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100-year flood discharges indicate good agreement. The root mean square error ranges from 27% to 38% and the synthetic record bias from -9% to -18% in comparison with the observed record. The reduced variance in the synthetic results is attributed to use of only four long-term rainfall records and model limitations. The root mean square error and bias is within the accuracy considered to be satisfactory. (Author 's abstract)

Thirty Years Later: Reflections of the Big Thompson Flood, Colorado, 1976 to 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarrett, R. D.; Costa, J. E.; Brunstein, F. C.; Quesenberry, C. A.; Vandas, S. J.; Capesius, J. P.; O'Neill, G. B.

2006-12-01

Thirty years ago, over 300 mm of rain fell in about 4 to 6 hours in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin during the devastating flash flood on July 31, 1976. The rainstorm produced flood discharges that exceeded 40 m3/s/km2. A peak discharge of 883 m3/s was estimated at the Big Thompson River near Drake streamflow-gaging station. The raging waters left 144 people dead, 250 injured, and over 800 people were evacuated by helicopter. Four-hundred eighteen homes and businesses were destroyed, as well as 438 automobiles, and damage to infrastructure left the canyon reachable only via helicopter. Total damage was estimated in excess of $116 million (2006 dollars). Natural hazards similar to the Big Thompson flood are rare, but the probability of a similar event hitting the Front Range, other parts of Colorado, or other parts of the Nation is real. Although much smaller in scale than the Big Thompson flood, several flash floods have happened during the monsoon in early July 2006 in the Colorado foothills that reemphasized the hazards associated with flash flooding. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts flood research to help understand and predict the magnitude and likelihood of large streamflow events such as the Big Thompson flood. A summary of hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, what the 1976 flood can teach us about flash floods, a description of some of the advances in USGS flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and lessons that we learned to help reduce loss of life from this extraordinary flash flood are discussed. In the 30 years since the Big Thompson flood, there have been important advances in streamflow monitoring and flood warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) NEXRAD radar allows real-time monitoring of precipitation in most places in the United States. The USGS currently (2006) operates about 7,250 real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the United States that are monitored by the USGS, the NWS, and emergency managers. When substantial flooding occurs, the USGS mobilizes personnel to collect streamflow data in affected areas. Streamflow data improve flood forecasting and provide data for flood-frequency analysis for floodplain management, design of structures located in floodplains, and related water studies. An important lesson learned is that nature provides environmental signs before and during floods that can help people avoid hazard areas. Important contributions to flood science as a result of the 1976 flood include development of paleoflood methods to interpret the preserved flood-plain stratigraphy to document the number, magnitude, and age of floods that occurred prior to streamflow monitoring. These methods and data on large floods can be used in many mountain-river systems to help us better understand flood hazards and plan for the future. For example, according to conventional flood-frequency analysis, the 1976 Big Thompson flood had a flood recurrence interval of about 100 years. However, paleoflood research indicated the 1976 flood was the largest in about the last 10,000 years in the basin and had a flood recurrence interval in excess of 1,000 years.

Characteristics of the turbulence in the flow at a tidal stream power site.

PubMed

Milne, I A; Sharma, R N; Flay, R G J; Bickerton, S

2013-02-28

This paper analyses a set of velocity time histories which were obtained at a fixed point in the bottom boundary layer of a tidal stream, 5 m from the seabed, and where the mean flow reached 2.5 m s(-1). Considering two complete tidal cycles near spring tide, the streamwise turbulence intensity during non-slack flow was found to be approximately 12-13%, varying slightly between flood and ebb tides. The ratio of the streamwise turbulence intensity to that of the transverse and vertical intensities is typically 1 : 0.75 : 0.56, respectively. Velocity autospectra computed near maximum flood tidal flow conditions exhibit an f(-2/3) inertial subrange and conform reasonably well to atmospheric turbulence spectral models. Local isotropy is observed between the streamwise and transverse spectra at reduced frequencies of f>0.5. The streamwise integral time scales and length scales of turbulence at maximum flow are approximately 6 s and 11-14 m, respectively, and exhibit a relatively large degree of scatter. They are also typically much greater in magnitude than the transverse and vertical components. The findings are intended to increase the levels of confidence within the tidal energy industry of the characteristics of the higher frequency components of the onset flow, and subsequently lead to more realistic performance and loading predictions.

Late Neolithic Mondsee Culture in Austria: living on lakes and living with flood risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swierczynski, T.; Lauterbach, S.; Dulski, P.; Brauer, A.

2013-07-01

Neolithic and Bronze Age lake dwellings in the European Alps became recently protected under the UNESCO World Heritage. However, only little is known about the cultural history of the related pre-historic communities, their adaptation strategies to environmental changes and particularly about the almost synchronous decline of many of these settlements around the transition from the Late Neolithic to the Early Bronze Age. For example, there is an ongoing debate whether the abandonment of Late Neolithic lake dwellings at Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) was caused by unfavourable climate conditions or a single catastrophic event. Within the varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, we investigated the occurrence of intercalated detrital layers from major floods and debris flows to unravel extreme surface runoff recurrence during the Neolithic settlement period. A combination of detailed sediment microfacies analysis and μXRF element scanning allows distinguishing debris flow and flood deposits. A total of 60 flood and 12 debris flow event layers was detected between 7000 and 4000 varve years (vyr) BP. Compared to the centennial- to millennial-scale average, a period of increased runoff event frequency can be identified between 5900 and 4450 vyr BP. Enhanced flood frequency is accompanied by predominantly siliciclastic sediment supply between ca. 5500 and 5000 vyr BP and enhanced dolomitic sediment supply between 4900 and 4500 vyr BP. A change in the location and the construction technique of the Neolithic lake dwellings at Lake Mondsee can be observed during the period of higher flood frequency. While lake dwellings of the first settlement period (ca. 5800-5250 cal. yr BP) were constructed directly on the wetlands, later constructions (ca. 5400-4700 cal. yr BP) were built on piles upon the water, possibly indicating an adaptation to either increased flood risk or a general increase of the lake level. However, our results also indicate that other than climatic factors (e.g. socio-economic changes) must have influenced the decline of the Mondsee Culture because flood activity generally decreased since 4450 vyr BP, but no new lake dwellings have been established thereafter.

Composite Analysis of Cold Season Atmospheric River Events: Extreme Precipitation and Flooding over the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eldardiry, H.; Hossain, F.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are narrow elongated corridors with horizontal water vapor transport located within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. While it is widely known that most of heavy rainfall events across the western United States (US) are driven by ARs, the connection between atmospheric conditions and precipitation during an AR event has not been fully documented. In this study, we present a statistical analysis of the connection between precipitation, temperature, wind, and snowpack during the cold season AR events hitting the coastal regions of the western US. For each AR event, the precipitation and other atmospheric variables are retrieved through the dynamic downscaling of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis product using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF). The results show a low frequency of precipitation (below 0.3) during AR events that reflects the connection of AR with extreme precipitation. Examining the horizontal wind speed during AR events indicates a high correlation (above 0.7) with precipitation. In addition, high levels of snow water equivalence (SWE) are also noticed along the mountainous regions, e.g., Cascade Range and Sierra-Nevada mountain range, during most of AR events. Addressing the impact of duration on the frequency of precipitation, we develop Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves during AR events that can potentially describe the future predictability of precipitation along the north and south coast. To complement our analysis, we further investigate the flooding events recorded in the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) storm events database. While some flooding events are attributed to heavy rainfall associated with an AR event, other flooding events are significantly connected to the increase in the snowmelt before the flooding date. Thus, we introduce an index that describes the contribution of rainfall vs snowmelt and categorizes the flooding events during an AR event into rain-driven and snow-driven events. Such categorization can provide insight into whether or not an AR will produce extreme precipitation or flooding. The results from such investigations are important to understand historical AR events and assess how precipitation and flooding might evolve in future climate.

Estimating the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, A. J.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Wadey, M. P.

2015-06-01

Coastal managers face the task of assessing and managing flood risk. This requires knowledge of the area of land, the number of people, properties and other infrastructure potentially affected by floods. Such analyses are usually static; i.e. they only consider a snapshot of the current situation. This misses the opportunity to learn about the role of key drivers of historical changes in flood risk, such as development and population rise in the coastal flood plain, as well as sea-level rise. In this paper, we develop and apply a method to analyse the temporal evolution of residential population exposure to coastal flooding. It uses readily available data in a GIS environment. We examine how population and sea-level change have modified exposure over two centuries in two neighbouring coastal sites: Portsea and Hayling Islands on the UK south coast. The analysis shows that flood exposure changes as a result of increases in population, changes in coastal population density and sea level rise. The results indicate that to date, population change is the dominant driver of the increase in exposure to flooding in the study sites, but climate change may outweigh this in the future. A full analysis of changing flood risk is not possible as data on historic defences and wider vulnerability are not available. Hence, the historic evolution of flood exposure is as close as we can get to a historic evolution of flood risk. The method is applicable anywhere that suitable floodplain geometry, sea level and population data sets are available and could be widely applied, and will help inform coastal managers of the time evolution in coastal flood drivers.

Duration and Frequency Analysis of Lowland Flooding in Western Murfreesboro, Rutherford County, Tennessee, 1998-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Law, George S.

2002-01-01

Periodic flooding occurs at lowlands and sinkholes in and adjacent to the flood plain of the West Fork Stones River in the western part of Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Flooding in this area commonly occurs during the winter months from December through March. The maximum water level that flood waters will reach in a lowland or sinkhole is controlled by the elevation of the land surrounding the site or the overflow outlet. Maximum water levels, independent of overflow from the river, were estimated to be reached in lowlands and sinkholes in the study area every 1 to 4 years. Minor overflow from the West Fork Stones River (less than 1 foot in depth) into the study area has been estimated to occur every 10 to 20 years. Moderate overflow from the river (1 to 2 feet in depth) occurs on average every 20 to 50 years, while major river overflow (in excess of 2 feet in depth) can be expected every 50 years. Rainfall information for the area, and streamflow and water-level measurements from the West Fork Stones River, lowlands, sinkholes, caves, and wells in the study area were used to develop a flood-prone area map, independent of overflow from the river, for the study area. Water-level duration and frequency relations, independent of overflow from the river, were estimated for several lowlands, sinkholes, and wells in the study area. These relations are used to characterize flooding in lowland areas of western Murfreesboro, Rutherford County, Tennessee.

Estimated Flood-Inundation Mapping for the Upper Blue River, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch in Kansas City, Missouri, 2006-08

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, Brian P.; Huizinga, Richard J.

2008-01-01

In the interest of improved public safety during flooding, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Kansas City, Missouri, completed a flood-inundation study of the Blue River in Kansas City, Missouri, from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at Kenneth Road to 63rd Street, of Indian Creek from the Kansas-Missouri border to its mouth, and of Dyke Branch from the Kansas-Missouri border to its mouth, to determine the estimated extent of flood inundation at selected flood stages on the Blue River, Indian Creek, and Dyke Branch. The results of this study spatially interpolate information provided by U.S. Geological Survey gages, Kansas City Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time gages, and the National Weather Service flood-peak prediction service that comprise the Blue River flood-alert system and are a valuable tool for public officials and residents to minimize flood deaths and damage in Kansas City. To provide public access to the information presented in this report, a World Wide Web site (http://mo.water.usgs.gov/indep/kelly/blueriver) was created that displays the results of two-dimensional modeling between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street, estimated flood-inundation maps for 13 flood stages, the latest gage heights, and National Weather Service stage forecasts for each forecast location within the study area. The results of a previous study of flood inundation on the Blue River from 63rd Street to the mouth also are available. In addition the full text of this report, all tables and maps are available for download (http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2008/5068). Thirteen flood-inundation maps were produced at 2-foot intervals for water-surface elevations from 763.8 to 787.8 feet referenced to the Blue River at the 63rd Street Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time stream gage operated by the city of Kansas City, Missouri. Each map is associated with gages at Kenneth Road, Blue Ridge Boulevard, Kansas City (at Bannister Road), U.S. Highway 71, and 63rd Street on the Blue River, and at 103rd Street on Indian Creek. The National Weather Service issues peak stage forecasts for Blue Ridge Boulevard, Kansas City (at Bannister Road), U.S. Highway 71, and 63rd Street during floods. A two-dimensional depth-averaged flow model simulated flooding within a hydraulically complex, 5.6-mile study reach of the Blue River between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street. Hydraulic simulation of the study reach provided information for the estimated flood-inundation maps and water-velocity magnitude and direction maps. Flood profiles of the upper Blue River between the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at Kenneth Road and Hickman Mills Drive were developed from water-surface elevations calculated using Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency discharges and 2006 stage-discharge ratings at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. Flood profiles between Hickman Mills Drive and 63rd Street were developed from two-dimensional hydraulic modeling conducted for this study. Flood profiles of Indian Creek between the Kansas-Missouri border and the mouth were developed from water-surface elevations calculated using current stage-discharge ratings at the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage at 103rd Street, and water-surface slopes derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency stage-discharge relations. Mapped flood water-surface elevations at the mouth of Dyke Branch were set equal to the flood water-surface elevations of Indian Creek at the Dyke Branch mouth for all Indian Creek water-surface elevations; water-surface elevation slopes were derived from Federal Emergency Management Agency flood-frequency stage-discharge relations.

A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

PubMed

Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

2017-07-11

Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

The influence of pore structure parameters on the digital core recovery degree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Huifen; Zhao, Ling; Sun, Yanyu; Yuan, Shi

2017-05-01

Constructing digital core in the research of water flooding or polymer flooding oil displacement efficiency has its unique advantage. Using mercury injection experiment measured pore throat size distribution frequency, coordination number measured by CT scanning method and imbibition displacement method is used to measure the wettability of the data, on the basis of considering pore throat ratio, wettability, using the principle of adaptive porosity, on the basis of fitting the permeability to complete the construction of digital core. The results show that the model of throat distribution is concentrated water flooding recovery degree is higher, and distribution is more decentralized model polymer flooding recovery degree is higher. Around the same number of PV in poly, coordination number model of water flooding and polymer flooding recovery degree is higher.

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Hydrologic Design in Snow-Dominated Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark

Precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves are a standard tool used to derive design floods for hydraulic infrastructure worldwide. In snow-dominated regions where a large percentage of flood events are caused by snowmelt and rain-on-snow events, the PREC-IDF design approach can lead to substantial underestimation/overestimation of design floods and associated infrastructure. In this study, next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface, are introduced into the design process to improve hydrologic design. The authors compared peak design flood estimates from the National Resource Conservation Service TR-55 hydrologic model driven by NG-IDF and PREC-IDF curves at 399 Snowpackmore » Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States, all of which had at least 30 years of high-quality records. They found that about 72% of the stations in the western United States showed the potential for underdesign, for which the PREC-IDF curves underestimated peak design floods by as much as 324%. These results demonstrated the need to update the use of PREC-IDF curves to the use of NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated regions.« less

Next-Generation Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves for Hydrologic Design in Snow-Dominated Environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark S.

Precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves are a standard tool used to derive design floods for hydraulic infrastructure worldwide. In snow-dominated regions where a large percentage of flood events are caused by snowmelt and rain-on-snow events, the PREC-IDF design approach can lead to substantial underestimation/overestimation of design floods and associated infrastructure. In this study, next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface, are introduced into the design process to improve hydrologic design. The authors compared peak design flood estimates from the National Resource Conservation Service TR-55 hydrologic model driven by NG-IDF and PREC-IDF curves at 399 Snowpackmore » Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States, all of which had at least 30 years of high-quality records. They found that about 72% of the stations in the western United States showed the potential for underdesign, for which the PREC-IDF curves underestimated peak design floods by as much as 324%. These results demonstrated the need to update the use of PREC-IDF curves to the use of NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated regions.« less

Extent and frequency of inundation of Schuylkill River flood plain from Conshohocken to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alter, A.T.

1966-01-01

Information on flood conditions plays an important part in the development and use of river valleys. This report presents maps, profiles, and flood-frequency relations developed from past flood experience on the Schuylkill River from Conshohocken to Philadelphia, Pa. The maps and profiles are used to define the areal extent and depth of flooding of the August 24, 1933, and August 19, 1955, floods. The flood of October 4, 1869, which is the greatest flood known on the lower Schuylkill River, is presented on the flood profile and on the ten cross sections. The area inundated by the 1869 flood is not defined because insufficient data are available and because hydrologic and hydraulic conditions have undoubtedly changed to such an extent that such a definition would have little present significance. The basic flood data were prepared to aid individuals, organizations, and governmental agencies in making sound decisions for the safe and economical development of the lower Schuylkill River valley. Recommendations for land use, or suggestions for limitations of land use, are not made in this report.The responsibility for planning for the optimum land use in the flood plain and the implementation of flood-plain regulations to achieve such optimum use rests with the State and local interests. The preparation of this report was undertaken after consultation with representatives of the Philadelphia City Planning Commission and the Montgomery County Planning Commission who expressed the need for flood-plain information and their willingness to consider floodplain regulations.The area covered by this report extends downstream along the Schuylkill River from Plymouth Dam in Conshohocken to the mouth of Wissahickon Creek in Philadelphia. Flooding along Wissahickon Creek is not included in the report. The reach studied extends from 13.0 miles to 21.0 miles upstream from the river mouth. All river distances used in the report are river miles upstream from the mouth of the Schuylkill River as used by the Corps of Engineer, U.S. Army and by the U.S. Geological Survey (Bogart, 1960, p. 194). For the convenience of users a tabulation of river miles of selected points upstream from the mouth of the Schuylkill River is included at the end of this report (table 1).

Floods in mountain environments: A synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoffel, Markus; Wyżga, Bartłomiej; Marston, Richard A.

2016-11-01

Floods are a crucial agent of geomorphic change in the channels and valley floors of mountains watercourses. At the same time, they can be highly damaging to property, infrastructure, and life. Because of their high energy, mountain watercourses are highly vulnerable to environmental changes affecting their catchments and channels. Many factors have modified and frequently still tend to modify the environmental conditions in mountain areas, with impacts on geomorphic processes and the frequency, magnitude, and timing of floods in mountain watercourses. The ongoing climate changes vary between regions but may affect floods in mountain areas in many ways. In many mountain regions of Europe, widespread afforestation took place over the twentieth century, considerably increasing the amounts of large wood delivered to the channels and the likelihood of jamming bridges. At the same time, deforestation continues in other mountain areas, accelerating runoff and amplifying the magnitude and frequency of floods in foreland areas. In many countries, in-channel gravel mining has been a common practice during recent decades; the resultant deficit of bed material in the affected channels may suddenly manifest during flood events, resulting in the failure of scoured bridges or catastrophic channel widening. During the past century many rivers in mountain and foreland areas incised deeply; the resultant loss of floodplain water storage has decreased attenuation of flood waves, hence increasing flood hazard to downstream river reaches. On the other hand, a large amount of recent river restoration activities worldwide may provide examples of beneficial changes to flood risk, attained as a result of increased channel storage or reestablished floodplain water storage. Relations between geomorphic processes and floods operate in both directions, which means that changes in flood probability or the character of floods (e.g., increased wood load) may significantly modify the morphology of mountain rivers, but morphological changes of rivers can also affect hydrological properties of floods and the associated risk for societies. This paper provides a review of research in the field of floods in mountain environments and puts the papers of this special issue dedicated to the same topic into context. It also provides insight into innovative studies, methods, or emerging aspects of the relations between environmental changes, geomorphic processes, and the occurrence of floods in mountain rivers.

Using raster and vector data to identify objects for classify in flood risk. A case study: Raciborz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porczek, Mariusz; Rucińska, Dorota; Lewiński, Stanisław

2018-01-01

The severe flood of 1997, which seriously affected Polish, Czech and German territories, gave impetus to research into the management of flood-prone areas. The material losses caused by the "Flood of the Millennium" totalled billions of Polish zloty. The extent of the disaster and of infrastructure repair costs changed the attitude of many branches of the economy, and of science. This is the direct result of consideration of the introduction of changes into spatial management and crisis management. At the same time, it focused the interest of many who were trained in analysing the vulnerability of land-use features to natural disasters such as floods. Research into the spatial distribution of geographic environmental features susceptible to flood in the Odra valley was conducted at the Faculty of Geography and Regional Studies of the University of Warsaw using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). This study seeks to examine the possibility of adapting vector and raster data and using them for land-use classification in the context of risk of flood and inundation damage. The analysed area of the city and surrounding area of Raciborz, on the upper Odra River, is a case study for identifying objects and lands susceptible to natural hazards based on publicly available satellite databases of the highest resolution, which is a very important factor in the quality of further risk analyses for applied use. The objective of the research was to create a 10×10-m-pixel raster network using raster data made available by ESA (Copernicus Land Monitoring Service) and vector data from Open Street Map.

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay

PubMed Central

Oddo, Perry C.; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies. PMID:28350884

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

PubMed

Ruckert, Kelsey L; Oddo, Perry C; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

Modeling of a Flooding Induced Station Blackout for a Pressurized Water Reactor Using the RISMC Toolkit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mandelli, Diego; Prescott, Steven R; Smith, Curtis L

2011-07-01

In the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) approach we want to understand not just the frequency of an event like core damage, but how close we are (or are not) to key safety-related events and how might we increase our safety margins. The RISMC Pathway uses the probabilistic margin approach to quantify impacts to reliability and safety by coupling both probabilistic (via stochastic simulation) and mechanistic (via physics models) approaches. This coupling takes place through the interchange of physical parameters and operational or accident scenarios. In this paper we apply the RISMC approach to evaluate the impact of amore » power uprate on a pressurized water reactor (PWR) for a tsunami-induced flooding test case. This analysis is performed using the RISMC toolkit: RELAP-7 and RAVEN codes. RELAP-7 is the new generation of system analysis codes that is responsible for simulating the thermal-hydraulic dynamics of PWR and boiling water reactor systems. RAVEN has two capabilities: to act as a controller of the RELAP-7 simulation (e.g., system activation) and to perform statistical analyses (e.g., run multiple RELAP-7 simulations where sequencing/timing of events have been changed according to a set of stochastic distributions). By using the RISMC toolkit, we can evaluate how power uprate affects the system recovery measures needed to avoid core damage after the PWR lost all available AC power by a tsunami induced flooding. The simulation of the actual flooding is performed by using a smooth particle hydrodynamics code: NEUTRINO.« less

Magnitude and frequency of flooding on the Myakka River, Southwest Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammett, K.M.; Turner, J.F.; Murphy, W.R.

1978-01-01

Increasing numbers of urban and agricultural developments are being located on waterfront property in the Myakka River flood plain in southwest Florida. Under natural conditions, a large depression, Tatum Sawgrass, was available as a flood storage area in the upper Myakka River basin. Construction of dikes across the lower part of Tatum Sawgrass has restricted use of the depression for temporary storage of Myakka River flood water overflow, and has resulted in increased flood-peak discharges and flood heights in downstream reaches of the Myakka River. The difference between natural and diked condition flood-peak discharges and flood heights is presented to illustrate the effects of the dikes. Flood-peak discharges, water-surface elevations and flood profiles also are provided for diked conditions. Analytical procedures used to evaluate diking effects are described in detail. The study reach includes Myakka River main stem upstream from U.S. Highway 41, near Myakka Shores in Sarasota County, to State Road 70 near Myakka City in Manatee County (including Tatum Sawgrass and Clay Gully), and Blackburn Canal from Venice By-Way to Myakka River. (Woodard-USGS)

Prehistoric floods on the Tennessee River—Assessing the use of stratigraphic records of past floods for improved flood-frequency analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, Jim E.

2017-06-14

Stratigraphic analysis, coupled with geochronologic techniques, indicates that a rich history of large Tennessee River floods is preserved in the Tennessee River Gorge area. Deposits of flood sediment from the 1867 peak discharge of record (460,000 cubic feet per second at Chattanooga, Tennessee) are preserved at many locations throughout the study area at sites with flood-sediment accumulation. Small exposures at two boulder overhangs reveal evidence of three to four other floods similar in size, or larger, than the 1867 flood in the last 3,000 years—one possibly as much or more than 50 percent larger. Records of floods also are preserved in stratigraphic sections at the mouth of the gorge at Williams Island and near Eaves Ferry, about 70 river miles upstream of the gorge. These stratigraphic records may extend as far back as about 9,000 years ago, giving a long history of Tennessee River floods. Although more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, a more in-depth comprehensive paleoflood study is feasible for the Tennessee River.

Assessing the quality of rainfall data when aiming to achieve flood resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoang, C. T.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D.; Lovejoy, S.

2012-04-01

A new EU Floods Directive entered into force five years ago. This Directive requires Member States to coordinate adequate measures to reduce flood risk. European flood management systems require reliable rainfall statistics, e.g. the Intensity-duration-Frequency curves for shorter and shorter durations and for a larger and larger range of return periods. Preliminary studies showed that the number of floods was lower when using low time resolution data of high intensity rainfall events, compared to estimates obtained with the help of higher time resolution data. These facts suggest that a particular attention should be paid to the rainfall data quality in order to adequately investigate flood risk aiming to achieve flood resilience. The potential consequences of changes in measuring and recording techniques have been somewhat discussed in the literature with respect to a possible introduction of artificial inhomogeneities in time series. In this paper, we discuss how to detect another artificiality: most of the rainfall time series have a lower recording frequency than that is assumed, furthermore the effective high-frequency limit often depends on the recording year due to algorithm changes. This question is particularly important for operational hydrology, because an error on the effective recording high frequency introduces biases in the corresponding statistics. In this direction, we developed a first version of a SERQUAL procedure to automatically detect the effective time resolution of highly mixed data. Being applied to the 166 rainfall time series in France, the SERQUAL procedure has detected that most of them have an effective hourly resolution, rather than a 5 minutes resolution. Furthermore, series having an overall 5 minute resolution do not have it for all years. These results raise serious concerns on how to benchmark stochastic rainfall models at a sub-hourly resolution, which are particularly desirable for operational hydrology. Therefore, database quality must be checked before use. Due to the fact that the multiple scales and possible scaling behaviour of hydrological data are particularly important for many applications, including flood resilience research, this paper first investigates the sensitivity of the scaling estimates and methods to the deficit of short duration rainfall data, and consequently propose a few simple criteria for a reliable evaluation of the data quality. Then we showed that our procedure SERQUAL enable us to extract high quality sub-series from longer time series that will be much more reliable to calibrate and/or validate short duration quantiles and hydrological models.

Documentary evidence of historical floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden 1400-1800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retsö, D.

2015-03-01

This article explores documentary evidence of floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden in the pre-instrumental period (1400-1800). The survey shows that two sub-periods can be considered as flood-rich, 1590-1670 and the early 18th century. The result related to a low degree of human impact on hydrology during the period, suggests that climatic factors, such as lower temperatures and increased precipitation connected to the so-called Little Ice Age rather than large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, should be considered as the main driver behind flood frequency and magnitude.

Construction of digital core by adaptive porosity method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Huifen; Liu, Ting; Zhao, Ling; Sun, Yanyu; Pan, Junliang

2017-05-01

The construction of digital core has its unique advantages in the study of water flooding or polymer flooding oil displacement efficiency. The frequency distribution of pore size is measured by mercury injection experiment, the coordination number by CT scanning method, and the wettability data by imbibition displacement was measured, on the basis of considering the ratio of pore throat ratio and wettability, the principle of adaptive porosity is used to construct the digital core. The results show that the water flooding recovery, the degree of polymer flooding and the results of the Physical simulation experiment are in good agreement.

The Importance of Studying Past Extreme Floods to Prepare for Uncertain Future Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burges, S. J.

2016-12-01

Hoyt and Langbein, 1955 in their book `Floods' wrote: " ..meteorologic and hydrologic conditions will combine to produce superfloods of unprecedented magnitude. We have every reason to believe that in most rivers past floods may not be an accurate measure of ultimate flood potentialities. It is this superflood with which we are always most concerned". I provide several examples to offer some historical perspective on assessing extreme floods. In one example, flooding in the Miami Valley, OH in 1913 claimed 350 lives. The engineering and socio-economic challenges facing the Morgan Engineering Co in how to mitigate against future flood damage and loss of life when limited information was available provide guidance about ways to face an uncertain hydroclimate future, particularly one of a changed climate. A second example forces us to examine mixed flood populations and illustrates the huge uncertainty in assigning flood magnitude and exceedance probability to extreme floods in such cases. There is large uncertainty in flood frequency estimates; knowledge of the total flood hydrograph, not the peak flood flow rate alone, is what is needed for hazard mitigation assessment or design. Some challenges in estimating the complete flood hydrograph in an uncertain future climate, including demands on hydrologic models and their inputs, are addressed.

On the significance of future trends in flood frequencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, M.; Schulz, K.; Wieder, O.

2015-12-01

Floods are a significant threat for alpine headwater catchments and for the forelands. The formation of significant flood events is thereby often coupled on processes occurring in the alpine zone. Rain on snow events are just one example. The prediction of flood risks or trends of flood risks is of major interest to people under direct threat, policy and decision makers as well as for insurance companies. A lot of research was and is currently done in view of detecting future trends in flood extremes or return periods. From a pure physically based point of view, there is strong evidence that those trends exist. But, the central point question is if trends in flood events or other extreme events could be detected from a statistical point of view and on the basis of the available data. This study will investigate this question on the basis of different target parameters and by using long term measurements.

Backwater at bridges and densely wooded flood plains, west fork Amite River near Liberty, Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colson, B.E.; Ming, C.O.; Arcement, George J.

1979-01-01

Floodflow data that will provide a base for evaluating digital models relating to open-channel flow were obtained at 22 sites on streams in Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Thirty-five floods were measured. Analysis of the data indicated methods currently in use would be inaccurate where densely vegetated flood plains are crossed by highway embankments and single-opening bridges. This atlas presents flood information at the site on West Fork Amite River near Liberty, MS. Water depths , velocities, and discharges through bridge openings on West Fork Amite River near Liberty, MS for floods of December 6, 1971 , and March 25, 1973, are shown, together with peak water-surface elevations along embankments and along cross sections. Manning 's roughness coefficient values in different parts of the flood plain are shown on maps, and flood-frequency relations are shown on a graph. (USGS).

Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Wetherald, R.T.; Dunne, K.A.; Delworth, T.L.

2002-01-01

Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, in particular an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood risk. But the detection of anthropogenically forced changes in flooding is difficult because of the substantial natural variability; the dependence of streamflow trends on flow regime further complicates the issue. Here we investigate the changes in risk of great floods - that is, floods with discharges exceeding 100-year levels from basins larger than 200,000 km2 - using both streamflow measurements and numerical simulations of the anthropogenic climate change associated with greenhouse gases and direct radiative effects of sulphate aerosols. We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue.

Influence of flood risk characteristics on flood insurance demand: a comparison between Germany and the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seifert, I.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2013-07-01

The existence of sufficient demand for insurance coverage against infrequent losses is important for the adequate function of insurance markets for natural disaster risks. This study investigates how characteristics of flood risk influence household flood insurance demand based on household surveys undertaken in Germany and the Netherlands. Our analyses confirm the hypothesis that willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance against medium-probability medium-impact flood risk in Germany is higher than WTP for insurance against low-probability high-impact flood risk in the Netherlands. These differences in WTP can be related to differences in flood experience, individual risk perceptions, and the charity hazard. In both countries there is a need to stimulate flood insurance demand if a relevant role of private insurance in flood loss compensation is regarded as desirable, for example, by making flood insurance compulsory or by designing information campaigns.

How Confident can we be in Flood Risk Assessments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merz, B.

2017-12-01

Flood risk management should be based on risk analyses quantifying the risk and its reduction for different risk reduction strategies. However, validating risk estimates by comparing model simulations with past observations is hardly possible, since the assessment typically encompasses extreme events and their impacts that have not been observed before. Hence, risk analyses are strongly based on assumptions and expert judgement. This situation opens the door for cognitive biases, such as `illusion of certainty', `overconfidence' or `recency bias'. Such biases operate specifically in complex situations with many factors involved, when uncertainty is high and events are probabilistic, or when close learning feedback loops are missing - aspects that all apply to risk analyses. This contribution discusses how confident we can be in flood risk assessments, and reflects about more rigorous approaches towards their validation.

14th-16th century Danube floods and long-term water-level changes reflected in archaeological-sedimentary evidence - in comparison with documentary evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Laszlovszky, József

2014-05-01

In the present paper an overview of published and unpublished results of archaeological and sedimentary investigations, predominantly reflect on 14th-16th-century changes, are provided and compared to documentary information on flood events and long-term changes. Long-term changes in flood behaviour and average water-level conditions had long-term detectable impacts on sedimentation and fluvio-morphological processes. Moreover, the available archaeological evidence might also provide information on the reaction of the society, in the form of changes in settlement organisation, building structures and processes. At present, information is mainly available concerning the 16th, and partly to the 14th-15th centuries. Medium and short term evidence mainly corresponds to the main flood peaks or even to single catastrophic flood events. Such processes may be identified in archaeological evidence concerning the second half of the 14th, early 15th centuries; while most of the cases listed above were connected to the flood peak (and/or generally increasing water-level conditions) of the late 15th and early 16th centuries. In other cases connections between sedimentary/archaeological evidence and the mid- and late 16th-century high flood-frequency period were presumed. Documentary evidence referring to the same period suggests that higher flood frequency and intensity periods occurred in the early and mid 16th century; a probably more prolonged flood rich period took place in the second half of the 16th century, with a peak in the late 1560s-early 1570s and maybe with another at the end of the 16th century. Earlier flood peaks in documentary evidence were detected on the Danube at the turn of the 14th-15th centuries and in the last decades of the 15th century, continuing in the early 16th century.

A 30m resolution hydrodynamic model of the entire conterminous United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C.; Johnson, K.; Wing, O.

2016-12-01

In this paper we describe the development and validation of a 30m resolution hydrodynamic model covering the entire conterminous United States. The model can be used to simulate inundation and water depths resulting from either return period flows (so equivalent to FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps), hindcasts of historic events or forecasts of future river flow from a rainfall-runoff or land surface model. As topographic data the model uses the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Dataset or NED, and return period flows are generated using a regional flood frequency analysis methodology (Smith et al., 2015. Worldwide flood frequency estimation. Water Resources Research, 51, 539-553). Flood defences nationwide are represented using data from the US Army Corps of Engineers. Using these data flows are simulated using an explicit and highly efficient finite difference solution of the local inertial form of the Shallow Water equations identical to that implemented in the LISFLOOD-FP model. Even with this efficient numerical solution a simulation at this resolution over a whole continent is a huge undertaking, and a variety of High Performance Computing technologies therefore need to be employed to make these simulations possible. The size of the output datasets is also challenging, and to solve this we use the GIS and graphical display functions of Google Earth Engine to facilitate easy visualisation and interrogation of the results. The model is validated against the return period flood extents contained in FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps and real flood event data from the Texas 2015 flood event which was hindcast using the model. Finally, we present an application of the model to the Upper Mississippi river basin where simulations both with and without flood defences are used to determine floodplain areas benefitting from protection in order to quantify the benefits of flood defence spending.

Using Deep Learning to Assess Future Flood Magnitude and Frequency in the Semi-arid and Snowmelt-dominated Missouri River Headwater Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, B.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

There has been growing interest for hydrologists and water resources managers about the emergence of non-stationarities associated with the hydro-meteorological processes driving floods. Among the potential causes of non-stationarity, climate change is deemed a major one. Understanding the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes of the Missouri River is challenging. In this region, floods are mainly triggered by snow melting, either when temperatures get mild in spring/summer, or when rain falls over snow in early spring and fall. The sparsely gauged and topographically complex area degrades the value of hydrological modeling that otherwise might foreshadow the evolution of hydro-meteorological interactions between precipitation, temperature and snow. In this work, we explore the utility of Deep Learning (DL) for assessing flood magnitude change under climate change. By using multiple hidden layers within artificial neural networks (ANNs), DL allows modeling complex interactions between inputs (i.e. precipitation, temperature and snow water equivalent) and outputs (i.e. water discharge). The objective is to develop a parsimonious model of the flood processes that maintain the contribution of nonstationary factors and their potential evolution under climate change, while reducing extraneous factors not central to flood generation. By comparing ANN's performance with outputs from two hydrological models of differing complexity (i.e. VIC, SAC-SMA), we evaluate the modeling capability of ANNs for three snow-dominated catchments that represent different flood regimes (Yellowstone River at Billings (MT; USGS 06214500), Powder River near Locate (MT; USGS 06326500) and James River near Scotland (SD; USGS 06478500)). Nonstationary inputs for each flood process model are derived from dynamically downscaled climate projections (from the NARCCAP experiment) to project floods in the three selected catchments. The uncertainty of future snow projections as well as its impact on spring flooding are explored. Future flood frequency obtained with ANNs is compared with the one obtained thanks to hydrological models and with the traditional approach as described in Bulletin 17C. Keywords: Flood, Climate-change, Snow, Neural Networks

Analysis of economic vulnerability to flash floods in urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; García, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-04-01

The growth of exposed population to floods, the expansion in allocation of economical activities to flood-prone areas and the rise of extraordinary event frequency over the last few decades, have resulted in an increase of flash flood-related casualties and economic losses. The increase in these losses at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Vulnerability is defined as the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. In recent years, numerous papers have deal with the assessment of the social dimension of vulnerability. However, economic factors are often a neglected aspect in traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on structural measures and flood damage models. In this context, the aim of this research is to identify those economic characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazard, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is an Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Cluster Analysis of economic information provided by different public institutional databases. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2), placed in Central-Northern Spain. Townships included in this study meet two requirements: i) urban areas are potentially affected by flash floods (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1); ii) urban areas are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability of flooding (as provided by Directive 2007/60/EC of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks) according with the preliminary assessment of flood risk made by water authorities.

Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.

2011-01-01

Recent studies have documented the important role that "atmospheric rivers" (ARs) of concentrated near-surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7-model ensemble of historical-climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse-gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher-than-historical water-vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm-temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood-hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes. ?? 2011 American Water Resources Association.

Precipitation-runoff, suspended-sediment, and flood-frequency characteristics for urbanized areas of Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabets, Timothy P.

1999-01-01

The developed part of Elmendorf Air Force Base near Anchorage, Alaska, consists of two basins with drainage areas of 4.0 and 0.64 square miles, respectively. Runoff and suspended-sediment data were collected from August 1996 to March 1998 to gain a basic understanding of the surface-water hydrology of these areas and to estimate flood-frequency characteristics. Runoff from the larger basin averaged 6 percent of rainfall, whereas runoff from the smaller basin averaged 13 percent of rainfall. During rainfall periods, the suspended-sediment load transported from the larger watershed ranged from 179 to 21,000 pounds and that from the smaller watershed ranged from 23 to 18,200 pounds. On a yield basis, suspended sediment from the larger watershed was 78 pounds per inch of runoff and from the smaller basin was 100 pounds per inch of runoff. Suspended-sediment loads and yields were generally lower during snowmelt periods than during rainfall periods. At each outfall of the two watersheds, water flows into steep natural channels. Suspended-sediment loads measured approximately 1,000 feet downstream from the outfalls during rainfall periods ranged from 8,450 to 530,000 pounds. On a yield basis, suspended sediment averaged 705 pounds per inch of runoff, more than three times as much as the combined sediment yield from the two watersheds. The increase in suspended sediment is most likely due to natural erosion of the streambanks. Streamflow data, collected in 1996 and 1997, were used to calibrate and verify a U.S. Geological Survey computer model?the Distributed Routing Rainfall Runoff Model-Version II (DR3M-II). The model was then used to simulate annual peak discharges and runoff volumes for 1981 to 1995 using historical rainfall records. Because the model indicated that surcharging (or ponding) would occur, no flood-frequency analysis was done for peak discharges. A flood-frequency analysis of flood volumes indicated that a 10-year flood would result in 0.39 inch of runoff (averaged over the entire drainage basin) from the larger watershed and 1.1 inches of runoff from the smaller watershed.

An Overview of Synoptic and Mesoscale Factors Contributing to the Disastrous Atlanta Flood of 2009

EPA Science Inventory

If IPCC (2007) projections are accurate, the frequency and severity of extreme hydroclimate events (e.g., droughts, floods) will likely increase in response to the acceleration in the water cycle. Additionally, a majority of the population lives in urban areas, and by 2030 this ...

Department of the Navy Fiscal Year 2011 Annual Financial Report. Mission Ready: Managing Risk and Meeting Objectives

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

Earthquake Relief Effort Haiti Migrant Operational Support Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Tennessee Flooding Pakistan Flooding Typhoon Megi (Philippines) Natural...provide relevant capabilities and to enable Operationally Responsive Space. TacSat-4 provides ten Ultra High Frequency (UHF) channels, which can be used

Urban Flood Management with Integrated Inland-River System in Seoul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Y. I.; Kim, J. S.; Yuk, J. M.

2015-12-01

Global warming and climate change have caused significant damage and loss of life worldwide. The pattern of natural disasters has gradually diversified and their frequency is increasing. The impact of climate change on flood risk in urban rivers is of particular interest because these areas are typically densely populated. The occurrence of urban river flooding due to climate change not only causes significant loss of life and property but also causes health and social problems. It is therefore necessary to develop a scientific urban flood management system to cope with and reduce the impacts of climate change, including flood damage. In this study, we are going to introduce Integrated Inland-River Flood Analysis System in Seoul to conduct predictions on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and perform prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded areas. In addition, this urban flood management system can be used as a tool for decision making of systematic disaster prevention through real-time monitoring.

Detection and attribution of flood change across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archfield, Stacey

2017-04-01

In the United States, there have a been an increasing number of studies quantifying trends in the annual maximum flood; yet, few studies examine trends in floods that may occur more than once in a given year and even fewer assess trends in floods on rivers that have undergone substantial changes due to urbanization, land-cover change, and agricultural drainage practices. Previous research has shown that, for streamgages having minimal direct human intervention, trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. This study extends previous research to provide a comprehensive assessment of flood change across the United States that includes streamgages having experienced confounding alterations to streamflow (urbanization, storage, and land-cover changes) that provides a comprehensive assessment of flood change. Attribution of these changes is also explored.

Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Ruby Leung, L.; Li, Hong-Yi; Zhao, Jianshi; Tian, Fuqiang; Yang, Kun; Sothea, Khem

2017-10-01

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large-scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-LMK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the LMRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, stream regulation by dam reduces flood risk consistently throughout this century, with more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.

Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years

PubMed Central

Glur, Lukas; Wirth, Stefanie B.; Büntgen, Ulf; Gilli, Adrian; Haug, Gerald H.; Schär, Christoph; Beer, Jürg; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

2013-01-01

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change. PMID:24067733

Flood of May 19, 1990, along Perry Creek in Plymouth and Woodbury counties, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, D.A.

1996-01-01

A water-surface-elevation profile and peak discharges for the flood of May 19, 1990, along Perry Creek in Plymouth and Woodbury Counties, Iowa, are presented in this report. The peak discharge for the May 19,1990, flood on Perry Creek at 38th Street, Sioux City (06600000) is the second largest flood-peak discharge recorded at the streamflow-gaging station for the period 1939-95. The peak discharge for May 19, 1990, of 8,670 cubic feet per second, is approximately equal to the 35-year recurrence-interval discharge. The report provides information on flood stages and discharges and floodflow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations in the Perry Creek Basin using flood information collected during 1939-95. Information on temporary bench marks and reference points established in the Perry Creek Basin during 1990-93 is also included in the report. A flood history describes rainfall conditions for the three largest floods that occurred during 1939-95 (July 1944, September 1949, and May 1990).

Flood of July 21, 1975 in Mercer County, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stankowski, Stephen J.; Schopp, Robert D.; Velnich, Anthony J.

1975-01-01

Intense rainfall during the evening of July 20 and early morning hours of July 21, 1975 caused flooding of unprecedented magnitude in highly urbanized Mercer County, New Jersey. Over 6 inches (152 millimetres) of rainfall was recorded during a 10-hour period at Trenton, the capital of New Jersey. No lives were lost but damages to highways and bridges, to industrial, business, and residential buildings, to farmlands and crops, and to water supply systems were severe. This report illustrates the magnitude of the flood and provides hydrologic data needed for planning and design to control or lessen damages from future floods. It includes discussions of the antecedent conditions and meteorological aspects of the storm; a description of the flood and comparison to previous floods; a summary of flood stages and discharges; a discussion of flood frequency; and photomosaics which show inundated areas. More than 200 high-water marks are described as to location and elevation above mean sea level.

Flood Frequency Analyses Using a Modified Stochastic Storm Transposition Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, N. Z.; Kiani, M.

2015-12-01

Research shows that areas with similar topography and climatic environment have comparable precipitation occurrences. Reproduction and realization of historical rainfall events provide foundations for frequency analysis and the advancement of meteorological studies. Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) is a method for such a purpose and enables us to perform hydrologic frequency analyses by transposing observed historical storm events to the sites of interest. However, many previous studies in SST reveal drawbacks from simplified Probability Density Functions (PDFs) without considering restrictions for transposing rainfalls. The goal of this study is to stochastically examine the impacts of extreme events on all locations in a homogeneity zone. Since storms with the same probability of occurrence on homogenous areas do not have the identical hydrologic impacts, the authors utilize detailed precipitation parameters including the probability of occurrence of certain depth and the number of occurrence of extreme events, which are both incorporated into a joint probability function. The new approach can reduce the bias from uniformly transposing storms which erroneously increases the probability of occurrence of storms in areas with higher rainfall depths. This procedure is iterated to simulate storm events for one thousand years as the basis for updating frequency analysis curves such as IDF and FFA. The study area is the Upper Trinity River watershed including the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex with a total area of 6,500 mi2. It is the first time that SST method is examined in such a wide scale with 20 years of radar rainfall data.

Flood-inundation maps for the Green River in Colrain, Leyden, and Greenfield, Massachusetts, from U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 01170100 Green River near Colrain to the confluence with the Deerfield River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.; Bent, Gardner C.; Lombard, Pamela J.

2016-09-02

The U.S. Geological Survey developed flood elevations in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency for a 14.3-mile reach of the Green River in Colrain, Leyden, and Greenfield, Massachusetts, to assist landowners and emergency management workers to prepare for and recover from floods. The river reach extends from the U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage downstream to the confluence with the Deerfield River. A series of seven digital flood inundation maps were developed for the upper 4.4 miles of the river reach downstream from the stream. Flood discharges corresponding to the 50-, 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities were computed for the reach from updated flood-frequency analyses. These peak flows and the flood flows associated with the stages of 10.2, 12.4, and 14.4 feet (ft) at the Green River streamgage were routed through a one-dimensional step-backwater hydraulic model to obtain the corresponding peak water-surface elevations and to place the Tropical Storm Irene flood of August 28, 2011 (stage 13.97 ft), into historical context. The hydraulic model was calibrated by using the current (2015) stage-discharge relation at the U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage and from documented high-water marks from the Tropical Storm Irene flood, which had a flow higher than a 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flood discharge.The hydraulic model was used to compute water-surface profiles for flood stages referenced to the streamgage and ranging from the 50-percent annual exceedance probability (bankfull flow) at 7.6 ft (439.8 ft above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 [NAVD 88]) to 14.4 ft (446.7 ft NAVD 88), which exceeds the maximum recorded water level of 13.97 ft (Tropical Storm Irene) at the streamgage. The mapped stages of 7.6 to 14.4 ft were selected to match the stages for bankfull; the 50-, 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities; incremental stages of 10.2 and 12.4 ft; and the maximum stage of the stage-discharge rating curve. The simulated water-surface profiles were combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model derived from light detection and ranging (lidar) data having a 0.5-ft vertical accuracy to create a set of flood-inundation maps.The availability of the flood-inundation maps, combined with information regarding near real-time stage from U.S. Geological Survey Green River near Colrain, MA (01170100) streamgage, can provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities, such as evacuations and road closures, and postflood recovery efforts. The flood-inundation maps are nonregulatory but provide Federal, State, and local agencies and the public with estimates of the potential extent of flooding during selected peak-flow events.

Flood-inundation map and water-surface profiles for floods of selected recurrence intervals, Consumnes River and Deer Creek, Sacramento County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guay, Joel R.; Harmon, Jerry G.; McPherson, Kelly R.

1998-01-01

The damage caused by the January 1997 floods along the Cosumnes River and Deer Creek generated new interest in planning and managing land use in the study area. The 1997 floodflow peak, the highest on record and considered to be a 150-year flood, caused levee failures at 24 locations. In order to provide a technical basis for floodplain management practices, the U.S. Goelogical Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, completed a flood-inundation map of the Cosumnes River and Deer Creek drainage from Dillard Road bridge to State Highway 99. Flood frequency was estimated from streamflow records for the Cosumnes River at Michigan Bar and Deer Creek near Sloughhouse. Cross sections along a study reach, where the two rivers generally flow parallel to one another, were used with a step-backwater model (WSPRO) to estimate the water-surface profile for floods of selected recurrence intervals. A flood-inundation map was developed to show flood boundaries for the 100-year flood. Water-surface profiles were developed for the 5-, 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year floods.

Importance of record length with respect to estimating the 1-percent chance flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.

2010-01-01

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow gages have been established in every State in the Nation, Puerto Rico, and the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. From these st reamflow records, estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are often developed and used to design transportation and water- conveyance structures to protect lives and property, and to determine flood-insurance rates. Probably the most recognizable flood statistic computed from USGS stream gaging records is the 1- percent (%) chance flood; better known has the 100-year flood. By definition, this is a flood that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. The 1% chance flood is a statistical estimate that can be significantly influenced by length of record and extreme flood events captured in that record. Consequently, it is typically recommended that flood statistics be updated on some regular interval such as every 10 years. This paper examines the influence of record length on the 1% chance flood for the Broad River in Georgia and the substantial difference that can occur in the estimate based on record length and the hydrologic conditions under which that record was collected. 

Impact of the Three-Gorges Dam and water transfer project on Changjiang floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Tadanobu; Shankman, David

2013-01-01

Increasing frequency of severe floods on the middle and lower Changjiang (Yangtze) River during the past few decades can be attributed to both abnormal monsoon rainfall and landscape changes that include extensive deforestation affecting river sedimentation, and shrinking lakes and levee construction that reduced the areas available for floodwater storage. The Three-Gorges Dam (TGD) and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) will also affect frequency and intensity of severe floods in the Poyang Lake region of the middle Changjiang. Process-based National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE) model predicts that the TGD will increase flood risk during the early summer monsoon against the original justifications for building the dam, relating to complex river-lake-groundwater interactions. Several scenarios predict that morphological change will increase flood risk around the lake. This indicates the importance of managing both flood discharge and sediment deposition for the entire basin. Further, the authors assessed the impact of sand mining in the lake after its prohibition on the Changjiang, and clarified that alternative scenario of sand mining in lakes currently disconnected from the mainstream would reduce the flood risk to a greater extent than intensive dredging along junction channel. Because dry biomasses simulated by the model were linearly related to the Time-Integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TINDVI) estimated from satellite images, its decadal gradient during 1982-1999 showed a spatially heterogeneous distribution and generally decreasing trends beside the lakes, indicating that the increases in lake reclamation and the resultant decrease in rice productivity are closely related to the hydrologic changes. This integrated approach could help to minimize flood damage and promote better decisions addressing sustainable development.

Conditions and processes affecting sand resources at archeological sites in the Colorado River corridor below Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

East, Amy E.; Collins, Brian D.; Sankey, Joel B.; Corbett, Skye C.; Fairley, Helen C.; Caster, Joshua J.

2016-05-17

We conclude that most of the river-corridor archeological sites are at elevated risk of net erosion under present dam operations. In the present flow regime, controlled floods do not simulate the magnitude or frequency of natural floods, and are not large enough to deposit sand at elevations that were flooded at annual to decadal intervals in predam time. For archeological sites that depend upon river-derived sand, we infer elevated erosion risk owing to a combination of reduced sand supply (both fluvial and aeolian) through (1) the lower-than-natural flood magnitude, frequency, and sediment supply of the controlled-flooding protocol; (2) reduction of open, dry sand area available for wind redistribution under current normal (nonflood) dam operations, which do not include flows as low as natural seasonal low flows and do include substantial daily flow fluctuations; and (3) impeded aeolian sand entrainment and transport owing to increased riparian vegetation growth in the absence of larger, more-frequent floods. If dam operations were to increase the supply of sand available for windblown transport—for example, through larger floods, sediment augmentation, or increased fluvial sandbar exposure by low flows—and also decrease riparian vegetation, the prevalence of active aeolian sand could increase over time, and the propensity for unmitigated gully erosion could decrease. Although the evolution of river-corridor landscapes and archeological sites has been altered fundamentally by the lack of large, sediment-rich floods (flows on the order of 5,000 m3/s), some combination of sediment-rich flows above 1,270 m3/s, seasonal flows below 226 m3/s, and riparian-vegetation removal might increase the preservation potential for sand-dependent archeological resources in the Colorado River corridor.

Joint pattern of seasonal hydrological droughts and floods alternation in China's Huai River Basin using the multivariate L-moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, ShaoFei; Zhang, Xiang; She, DunXian

2017-06-01

Under the current condition of climate change, droughts and floods occur more frequently, and events in which flooding occurs after a prolonged drought or a drought occurs after an extreme flood may have a more severe impact on natural systems and human lives. This challenges the traditional approach wherein droughts and floods are considered separately, which may largely underestimate the risk of the disasters. In our study, the sudden alternation of droughts and flood events (ADFEs) between adjacent seasons is studied using the multivariate L-moments theory and the bivariate copula functions in the Huai River Basin (HRB) of China with monthly streamflow data at 32 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2012. The dry and wet conditions are characterized by the standardized streamflow index (SSI) at a 3-month time scale. The results show that: (1) The summer streamflow makes the largest contribution to the annual streamflow, followed by the autumn streamflow and spring streamflow. (2) The entire study area can be divided into five homogeneous sub-regions using the multivariate regional homogeneity test. The generalized logistic distribution (GLO) and log-normal distribution (LN3) are acceptable to be the optimal marginal distributions under most conditions, and the Frank copula is more appropriate for spring-summer and summer-autumn SSI series. Continuous flood events dominate at most sites both in spring-summer and summer-autumn (with an average frequency of 13.78% and 17.06%, respectively), while continuous drought events come second (with an average frequency of 11.27% and 13.79%, respectively). Moreover, seasonal ADFEs most probably occurred near the mainstream of HRB, and drought and flood events are more likely to occur in summer-autumn than in spring-summer.

Variable Trends in High Peak Flow Generation Across the Swedish Sub-Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Lyon, S. W.

2015-12-01

There is growing concern about increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts globally in recent years. Improving knowledge on the complexity of hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of these extreme events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true in cold regions such as the Swedish Sub-Arctic where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on extremes. This study explores changes in the magnitude and timing of the annual maximum daily flows in 18 Swedish sub-arctic catchments. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in selected hydrological signatures. Further, a flood frequency analysis was conducted by fitting a Gumbel (Extreme Value type I) distribution whereby selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Our results showed that hydrological systems in cold climates have complex, heterogeneous interactions with climate. Shifts from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime were evident with all significant trends pointing towards (1) lower flood magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest permafrost thawing and are in agreement with the increasing trends in annual minimum flows. Trends in the selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the entire period of record, while trends were variable under shorter periods. A thorough uncertainty analysis emphasized that the applied trend test is highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional pattern could be determined suggesting that how catchments are responding to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

Evidence of floods on the Potomac River from anatomical abnormalities in the wood of flood-plain trees

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yanosky, Thomas M.

1983-01-01

Ash trees along the Potomac River flood plain near Washington, D.C., were studied to determine changes in wood anatomy related to flood damage, and anomalous growth was compared to flood records for April 15 to August 31, 1930-79. Collectively, anatomical evidence was detected for 33 of the 34 growing-season floods during the study period. Evidence of 12 floods prior to 1930 was also noted, including catastrophic ones in 1889 and 1924. Trees damaged after the transition from earlywood to latewood growth typically formed ' flood rings ' of enlarged vessels within the latewood zone. Trees damaged near the beginning of the growth year developed flood rings within, or contiguous with, the earlywood. Both patterns are assumed to have developed when flood-damaged trees produced a second crop of leaves. Trees damaged by high-magnitude floods developed well formed flood rings along the entire height and around the entire circumference of the stem. Small floods were generally associated wtih diffuse or discontinuous anomalies restricted to stem apices. Frequency of flood rings was positively related to flood magnitude, and time of flood generation during the tree-growth season was estimated from the radial position of anomalous growth relative to annual ring width. Reconstructing tree heights in a year of flood-ring formation gives a minimum stage estimate along local stream reaches. Some trees provided evidence of numerous floods. Those with the greatest number of flood rings grew on frequently flooded surfaces subject to flood-flow velocities of at least 1 m/s, and more typically greater than 2 m/s. Tree size, more than age, was related to flood-ring formation. Trees kept small by frequent flood damage had more flood rings than taller trees of comparable age. (USGS)

Analysing urban resilience through alternative stormwater management options: application of the conceptual Spatial Decision Support System model at the neighbourhood scale.

PubMed

Balsells, M; Barroca, B; Amdal, J R; Diab, Y; Becue, V; Serre, D

2013-01-01

Recent changes in cities and their environments, caused by rapid urbanisation and climate change, have increased both flood probability and the severity of flooding. Consequently, there is a need for all cities to adapt to climate and socio-economic changes by developing new strategies for flood risk management. Following a risk paradigm shift from traditional to more integrated approaches, and considering the uncertainties of future urban development, one of the main emerging tasks for city managers becomes the development of resilient cities. However, the meaning of the resilience concept and its operability is still not clear. The goal of this research is to study how urban engineering and design disciplines can improve resilience to floods in urban neighbourhoods. This paper presents the conceptual Spatial Decision Support System (DS3) model which we consider a relevant tool to analyse and then implement resilience into neighbourhood design. Using this model, we analyse and discuss alternative stormwater management options at the neighbourhood scale in two specific areas: Rotterdam and New Orleans. The results obtained demonstrate that the DS3 model confirmed in its framework analysis that stormwater management systems can positively contribute to the improved flood resilience of a neighbourhood.

Rehabilitation and Flood Management Planning in a Steep, Boulder-Bedded Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caruso, Brian S.; Downs, Peter W.

2007-08-01

This study demonstrates the integration of rehabilitation and flood management planning in a steep, boulder-bedded stream in a coastal urban catchment on the South Island of New Zealand. The Water of Leith, the primary stream flowing through the city of Dunedin, is used as a case study. The catchment is steep, with a short time of concentration and rapid hydrologic response, and the lower stream reaches are highly channelized with floodplain encroachment, a high potential for debris flows, significant flood risks, and severely degraded aquatic habitat. Because the objectives for rehabilitation and flood management in urban catchments are often conflicting, a number of types of analyses at both the catchment and the reach scales and careful planning with stakeholder consultation were needed for successful rehabilitation efforts. This included modeling and analysis of catchment hydrology, fluvial geomorphologic assessment, analysis of water quality and aquatic ecology, hydraulic modeling and flood risk evaluation, detailed feasibility studies, and preliminary design to optimize multiple rehabilitation and flood management objectives. The study showed that all of these analyses were needed for integrated rehabilitation and flood management and that some incremental improvements in stream ecological health, aesthetics, and public recreational opportunities could be achieved in this challenging environment. These methods should be considered in a range of types of stream rehabilitation projects.

Annual compilation and analysis of hydrologic data for urban studies in the Bryan, Texas, metropolitan area, 1969

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, W.D.

1972-01-01

Hydrologic investigations of urban areas in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. These studies are now in progress in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Dallas County, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Bryan. Hydrologic investigations of urban areas in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. These studies are now in progress in Austin, Houston, Dallas, Dallas County, Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Bryan. 1. To determine, on the basis of historical data and hydrologic analyses, the magnitude and frequency of floods. 2. To document and define the areal extent of floods of greater than ordinary magnitude. 3. To determine the effect of urban development on flood peaks and volume. 4. To provide applied research facilities for studies at Texas A & M University at College Stations. This report, the first in a series of reports to be published annually, is primarily applicable to objectives 2, 3, and 4. The report presents the basic hydrologic data collected in two study areas during the 1969 water year (October 1, 1968, to September 30, 1969) and basic hydrologic data collected during part of the 1968 water year (April 5, 1968, to September 30, 1968). The locations of the two basins within the study area, Burton Creek and Hudson Creek, are shown on figure 1.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.