Extreme Flood Events Over the Past 300 Years Recorded in the Sediments of a Mountain Lake in the Altay Mountains, Northwestern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; Zhou, J.; Shen, B.; Zeng, H.

2017-12-01

Global climate change has the potential to accelerate the hydrological cycle, which may further enhance the temporal frequency of regional extreme floods. Climatic models predict that intra-annual rainfall variability will intensify, which will shift current rainfall regimes towards more extreme systems with lower precipitation frequencies, longer dry periods, and larger individual precipitation events worldwide. Understanding the temporal variations of extreme floods that occur in response to climate change is essential to anticipate the trends in flood magnitude and frequency in the context of global warming. However, currently available instrumental data are not long enough for capturing the most extreme events, thus the acquisition of long duration datasets for historical floods that extend beyond available instrumental records is clearly an important step in discerning trends in flood frequency and magnitude with respect to climate change. In this study, a reconstruction of paleofloods over the past 300 years was conducted through an analysis of grain sizes from the sediments of Kanas Lake in the Altay Mountains of northwestern China. Grain parameters and frequency distributions both demonstrate that two abrupt environment changes exist within the lake sedimentary sequence. Based on canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) and C-M pattern analysis, two flood events corresponding to ca. 1760 AD and ca. 1890 AD were identified, both of which occurred during warmer and wetter climate conditions according to tree-ring records. These two flood events are also evidenced by lake sedimentary records in the Altay and Tianshan areas. Furthermore, through a comparison with other records, the flood event in ca. 1760 AD seems to have occurred in both the arid central Asia and the Alps in Europe, and thus may have been associated with changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index.

Estimation of flood-frequency characteristics of small urban streams in North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, J.C.; Pope, B.F.

1996-01-01

A statewide study was conducted to develop methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods of small urban streams in North Carolina. This type of information is critical in the design of bridges, culverts and water-control structures, establishment of flood-insurance rates and flood-plain regulation, and for other uses by urban planners and engineers. Concurrent records of rainfall and runoff data collected in small urban basins were used to calibrate rainfall-runoff models. Historic rain- fall records were used with the calibrated models to synthesize a long- term record of annual peak discharges. The synthesized record of annual peak discharges were used in a statistical analysis to determine flood- frequency distributions. These frequency distributions were used with distributions from previous investigations to develop a database for 32 small urban basins in the Blue Ridge-Piedmont, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain hydrologic areas. The study basins ranged in size from 0.04 to 41.0 square miles. Data describing the size and shape of the basin, level of urban development, and climate and rural flood charac- teristics also were included in the database. Estimation equations were developed by relating flood-frequency char- acteristics to basin characteristics in a generalized least-squares regression analysis. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, impervious area, and rural flood discharge. The model error and prediction errors for the estimating equations were less than those for the national flood-frequency equations previously reported. Resulting equations, which have prediction errors generally less than 40 percent, can be used to estimate flood-peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for small urban basins across the State assuming negligible, sustainable, in- channel detention or basin storage.

A fluvial and pluvial probabilistic flood hazard analysis for Can Tho city, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martinez, Oriol; Thi Chinh, Do; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2014-05-01

Can Tho city is the largest city and the economic heart of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Due to its economic importance and envisaged development goals the city grew rapidly in population size and extend over the last two decades. Large parts of the city are located in flood prone areas, and also the central parts of the city recently experienced an increasing number of flood events, both of fluvial and pluvial nature. As the economic power and asset values are constantly increasing, this poses a considerable risk for the city. The the aim of this study is to perform a flood hazard analysis considering both fluvial and pluvial floods and to derive probabilistic flood hazard maps. This requires in a first step an understanding of the typical flood mechanisms. Fluvial floods are triggered by a coincidence of high water levels during the annual flood period in the Mekong Delta with high tidal levels, which cause in combination short term inundations in Can Tho. Pluvial floods are triggered by typical tropical convective rain storms during the monsoon season. These two flood pathways are essentially independent in its sources and can thus be treated in the hazard analysis accordingly. For the fluvial hazard analysis we propose a bivariate frequency analysis of the Mekong flood characteristics, the annual maximum flood discharge Q and the annual flood volume V at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta, the gauging station Kratie. This defines probabilities of exceedance of different Q-V pairs, which are transferred into synthetic flood hydrographs. The synthetic hydrographs are routed through a quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of the entire Mekong Delta in order to provide boundary conditions for a detailed hazard mapping of Can Tho. This downscaling step is necessary, because the huge complexity of the river and channel network does not allow for a proper definition of boundary conditions for Can Tho city by gauge data alone. In addition the available gauge data around Can Tho are too short for a meaningful frequency analysis. The detailed hazard mapping is performed by a 2D hydrodynamic model for Can Tho city. As the scenarios are derived in a Monte-Carlo framework, the final flood hazard maps are probabilistic, i.e. show the median flood hazard along with uncertainty estimates for each defined level of probabilities of exceedance. For the pluvial flood hazard a frequency analysis of the hourly rain gauge data of Can Tho is performed implementing a peak-over-threshold procedure. Based on this frequency analysis synthetic rains storms are generated in a Monte-Carlo framework for the same probabilities of exceedance as in the fluvial flood hazard analysis. Probabilistic flood hazard maps were then generated with the same 2D hydrodynamic model for the city. In a last step the fluvial and pluvial scenarios are combined assuming independence of the events. These scenarios were also transferred into hazard maps by the 2D hydrodynamic model finally yielding combined fluvial-pluvial probabilistic flood hazard maps for Can Tho. The derived set of maps may be used for an improved city planning or a flood risk analysis.

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency at gaged and ungaged sites on streams in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada, based on data through water year 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Curran, Janet H.; Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Ourso, Robert T.

2016-03-16

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are needed across Alaska for engineering design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, flood-plain management, and other water-resource purposes. This report updates methods for estimating flood magnitude and frequency in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2012 were compiled from 387 streamgages on unregulated streams with at least 10 years of record. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for each streamgage using the Expected Moments Algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to the logarithms of annual peak flows. A multiple Grubbs-Beck test was used to identify potentially influential low floods in the time series of peak flows for censoring in the flood frequency analysis.For two new regional skew areas, flood-frequency estimates using station skew were computed for stations with at least 25 years of record for use in a Bayesian least-squares regression analysis to determine a regional skew value. The consideration of basin characteristics as explanatory variables for regional skew resulted in improvements in precision too small to warrant the additional model complexity, and a constant model was adopted. Regional Skew Area 1 in eastern-central Alaska had a regional skew of 0.54 and an average variance of prediction of 0.45, corresponding to an effective record length of 22 years. Regional Skew Area 2, encompassing coastal areas bordering the Gulf of Alaska, had a regional skew of 0.18 and an average variance of prediction of 0.12, corresponding to an effective record length of 59 years. Station flood-frequency estimates for study sites in regional skew areas were then recomputed using a weighted skew incorporating the station skew and regional skew. In a new regional skew exclusion area outside the regional skew areas, the density of long-record streamgages was too sparse for regional analysis and station skew was used for all estimates. Final station flood frequency estimates for all study streamgages are presented for the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities.Regional multiple-regression analysis was used to produce equations for estimating flood frequency statistics from explanatory basin characteristics. Basin characteristics, including physical and climatic variables, were updated for all study streamgages using a geographical information system and geospatial source data. Screening for similar-sized nested basins eliminated hydrologically redundant sites, and screening for eligibility for analysis of explanatory variables eliminated regulated peaks, outburst peaks, and sites with indeterminate basin characteristics. An ordinary least‑squares regression used flood-frequency statistics and basin characteristics for 341 streamgages (284 in Alaska and 57 in Canada) to determine the most suitable combination of basin characteristics for a flood-frequency regression model and to explore regional grouping of streamgages for explaining variability in flood-frequency statistics across the study area. The most suitable model for explaining flood frequency used drainage area and mean annual precipitation as explanatory variables for the entire study area as a region. Final regression equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability discharge in Alaska and conterminous basins in Canada were developed using a generalized least-squares regression. The average standard error of prediction for the regression equations for the various annual exceedance probabilities ranged from 69 to 82 percent, and the pseudo-coefficient of determination (pseudo-R2) ranged from 85 to 91 percent.The regional regression equations from this study were incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats program for a limited area of the State—the Cook Inlet Basin. StreamStats is a national web-based geographic information system application that facilitates retrieval of streamflow statistics and associated information. StreamStats retrieves published data for gaged sites and, for user-selected ungaged sites, delineates drainage areas from topographic and hydrographic data, computes basin characteristics, and computes flood frequency estimates using the regional regression equations.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Montana based on data through 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Omang, R.J.; Parrett, Charles; Hull, J.A.

1986-01-01

Equations are presented for estimating flood magnitudes for ungaged sites in Montana based on data through 1983. The State was divided into eight regions based on hydrologic conditions, and separate multiple regression equations were developed for each region. These equations relate annual flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and are applicable only to natural flow streams. In three of the regions, equations also were developed relating flood magnitudes and frequencies to basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements. The standard errors of estimate for an exceedance probability of 1% ranged from 39% to 87%. Techniques are described for estimating annual flood magnitude and flood frequency information at ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites on the same stream. Included are curves relating flood frequency information to drainage area for eight major streams in the State. Maximum known flood magnitudes in Montana are compared with estimated 1 %-chance flood magnitudes and with maximum known floods in the United States. Values of flood magnitudes for selected exceedance probabilities and values of significant basin characteristics and channel geometry measurements for all gaging stations used in the analysis are tabulated. Included are 375 stations in Montana and 28 nearby stations in Canada and adjoining States. (Author 's abstract)

Forest cover, socioeconomics, and reported flood frequency in developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Susana; Ghimire, Ramesh

2012-08-01

In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the number of large floods reported since 1990. Using the same sample of countries as Bradshaw et al. (2007), and, like them, omitting socioeconomic characteristics from the analysis, we found that a reduction in natural forest cover is associated with an increase in the reported count of large floods. This result does not hold in any of three new analyses we perform. First, we expand the sample to include all the developing countries and all countries for which data were available but were omitted in their study. Second, and more importantly, since forest management is just one possible channel through which humans can influence reported flood frequency, we account for other important human-flood interactions. People are typically responsible for deforestation, but they are also responsible for other land use changes (e.g., urbanization), for floodplain and flood emergency management, and for reporting the floods. Thus, in our analysis we account for population, urban population growth, income, and corruption. Third, we exploit the panel nature of the data to control for unobserved country and time heterogeneity. We conclude that not only is the link between forest cover and reported flood frequency at the country level not robust, it also seems to be driven by sample selection and omitted variable bias. The human impact on the reported frequency of large floods at the country level is not through deforestation.

Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

2013-12-01

In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example of five watersheds located in the South of France. References : O. CAYLA : Probability calculation of design floods abd inflows - SPEED. Waterpower 1995, San Francisco, California 1995 CFGB : Design flood determination by the gradex method. Bulletin du Comité Français des Grands Barrages News 96, 18th congress CIGB-ICOLD n2, nov:108, 1994. F. GARAVAGLIA et al. : Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns subsampling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 951-964, 2010. J. LAVABRE et al. : SHYREG : une méthode pour l'estimation régionale des débits de crue. application aux régions méditerranéennes françaises. Ingénierie EAT, 97-111, 2003. M. MARGOUM : Estimation des crues rares et extrêmes : le modèle AGREGEE. Conceptions et remières validations. PhD, Ecole des Mines de Paris, 1992. R. NAULET et al. : Flood frequency analysis on the Ardèche river using French documentary sources from the two last centuries. Journal of Hydrology, 313:58-78, 2005. E. PAQUET et al. : The SCHADEX method: A semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation, Journal of Hydrology, 495, 23-37, 2013.

A uniform technique for flood frequency analysis.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, W.O.

1985-01-01

This uniform technique consisted of fitting the logarithms of annual peak discharges to a Pearson Type III distribution using the method of moments. The objective was to adopt a consistent approach for the estimation of floodflow frequencies that could be used in computing average annual flood losses for project evaluation. In addition, a consistent approach was needed for defining equitable flood-hazard zones as part of the National Flood Insurance Program. -from ASCE Publications Information

Analysis of Non-Tropical Cyclone Induced Flood Events over South East Asia: Investigating Flood Frequency and Extremes in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcella, M. P.; CHEN, C.; Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Much work has been completed in analyzing Southeast Asia's tropical cyclone climatology and the associated flooding throughout the region. Although, an active and strong monsoon season also brings major flooding across the Philippines resulting in the loss of lives and significant economic impacts, only a limited amount of research work has been conducted to investigate the frequency and flood loss estimates of these non-tropical cyclone (TC) storms. In this study, using the TRMM 3-hourly rainfall product, tropical cyclone rainfall is removed to construct a non-TC rainfall climatology across the region. Given this data, stochastically generated rainfall that is both spatially and temporally correlated across the country is created to generate a longer historically-based record of non-TC precipitation. After defining the rainfall criteria that constitutes a flood event based on observed floods and TRMM data, this event definition is applied to the stochastic catalog of rainfall to determine flood events. Subsequently, a thorough analysis of non-TC flood extremes, frequency, and distribution is completed for the country of the Philippines. As a result, the above methodology and datasets provide a unique opportunity to further study flood occurrences and their extremes across most of South East Asia.

Flood-frequency analyses, Manual of Hydrology: Part 3

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalrymple, Tate

1960-01-01

This report describes the method used by the U.S. Geological Survey to determine the magnitude and frequency of momentary peak discharges at any place on a stream, whether a gaging-station record is available or not. The method is applicable to a region of any size, as a river basin or a State, so long as the region is hydrologically homogeneous. The analysis provides two curves. The first expresses the flood discharge-time relation, showing variation of peak discharge, expressed as a ratio to the mean annual flood, with recurrence interval. The second relates the mean annual flood to the size of drainage area alone, or to the size area and other significant basin characteristics. A frequency curve may be defined for any place in the region by use of these two curves. The procedure is: (a) measure the drainage area and other appropriate basin characteristics from maps; (b) from the second curve, select the mean annual flood corresponding to the proper drainage area factors; (c) from the first curve, select ratios of peak discharge to mean annual flood for selected recurrence intervals, as 2, 10, 25, and 50 years; and (d) multiply these ratios by the mean annual flood and plot the resulting discharges of known frequency to define the frequency curve. Two reports not previously given general circulation are included as sections of this report. These are 'Plotting Positions in Frequency Analysis' by W. B. Langbein, and 'Characteristics of Frequency Curves Based on a Theoretical 1,000-Year Record' by M. A. Benson.

Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

2017-12-01

Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

Parsimonious nonstationary flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serago, Jake M.; Vogel, Richard M.

2018-02-01

There is now widespread awareness of the impact of anthropogenic influences on extreme floods (and droughts) and thus an increasing need for methods to account for such influences when estimating a frequency distribution. We introduce a parsimonious approach to nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NFFA) based on a bivariate regression equation which describes the relationship between annual maximum floods, x, and an exogenous variable which may explain the nonstationary behavior of x. The conditional mean, variance and skewness of both x and y = ln (x) are derived, and combined with numerous common probability distributions including the lognormal, generalized extreme value and log Pearson type III models, resulting in a very simple and general approach to NFFA. Our approach offers several advantages over existing approaches including: parsimony, ease of use, graphical display, prediction intervals, and opportunities for uncertainty analysis. We introduce nonstationary probability plots and document how such plots can be used to assess the improved goodness of fit associated with a NFFA.

A Study on Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis for Flood Simulation Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Younghun; Ahn, Hyunjun; Joo, Kyungwon; Heo, Jun-Haeng

2014-05-01

Recently, climate change has been observed in Korea as well as in the entire world. The rainstorm has been gradually increased and then the damage has been grown. It is very important to manage the flood control facilities because of increasing the frequency and magnitude of severe rain storm. For managing flood control facilities in risky regions, data sets such as elevation, gradient, channel, land use and soil data should be filed up. Using this information, the disaster situations can be simulated to secure evacuation routes for various rainfall scenarios. The aim of this study is to investigate and determine extreme rainfall quantile estimates in Uijeongbu City using index flood method with L-moments parameter estimation. Regional frequency analysis trades space for time by using annual maximum rainfall data from nearby or similar sites to derive estimates for any given site in a homogeneous region. Regional frequency analysis based on pooled data is recommended for estimation of rainfall quantiles at sites with record lengths less than 5T, where T is return period of interest. Many variables relevant to precipitation can be used for grouping a region in regional frequency analysis. For regionalization of Han River basin, the k-means method is applied for grouping regions by variables of meteorology and geomorphology. The results from the k-means method are compared for each region using various probability distributions. In the final step of the regionalization analysis, goodness-of-fit measure is used to evaluate the accuracy of a set of candidate distributions. And rainfall quantiles by index flood method are obtained based on the appropriate distribution. And then, rainfall quantiles based on various scenarios are used as input data for disaster simulations. Keywords: Regional Frequency Analysis; Scenarios of Rainfall Quantile Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Establishing Active Disaster Management System of Flood Control Structures by using 3D BIM Technique' [NEMA-12-NH-57] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

RainyDay: An Online, Open-Source Tool for Physically-based Rainfall and Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, D.; Yu, G.; Holman, K. D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis in ungaged or changing watersheds typically requires rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves combined with hydrologic models. IDF curves only depict point-scale rainfall depth, while true rainstorms exhibit complex spatial and temporal structures. Floods result from these rainfall structures interacting with watershed features such as land cover, soils, and variable antecedent conditions as well as river channel processes. Thus, IDF curves are traditionally combined with a variety of "design storm" assumptions such as area reduction factors and idealized rainfall space-time distributions to translate rainfall depths into inputs that are suitable for flood hydrologic modeling. The impacts of such assumptions are relatively poorly understood. Meanwhile, modern precipitation estimates from gridded weather radar, grid-interpolated rain gages, satellites, and numerical weather models provide more realistic depictions of rainfall space-time structure. Usage of such datasets for rainfall and flood frequency analysis, however, are hindered by relatively short record lengths. We present RainyDay, an open-source stochastic storm transposition (SST) framework for generating large numbers of realistic rainfall "scenarios." SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by temporal resampling and geospatial transposition of observed storms to extract space-time information from regional gridded rainfall data. Relatively short (10-15 year) records of bias-corrected radar rainfall data are sufficient to estimate rainfall and flood events with much longer recurrence intervals including 100-year and 500-year events. We describe the SST methodology as implemented in RainyDay and compare rainfall IDF results from RainyDay to conventional estimates from NOAA Atlas 14. Then, we demonstrate some of the flood frequency analysis properties that are possible when RainyDay is integrated with a distributed hydrologic model, including robust estimation of flood hazards in a changing watershed. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is supporting the development of a web-based variant of RainyDay, a "beta" version of which is available at http://her.cee.wisc.edu/projects/rainyday/.

Merging information from multi-model flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Vine, Nataliya

2016-04-01

Multi-model ensembles are becoming widely accepted for flood frequency change analysis. The use of multiple models results in large uncertainty around estimates of flood magnitudes, due to both uncertainty in model selection and natural variability of river flow. The challenge is therefore to extract the most meaningful signal from the multi-model predictions, accounting for both model quality and uncertainties in individual model estimates. The study demonstrates the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach facilitates explicit treatment of shared multi-model discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, by treating the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The advantages of the approach are: 1) to insure an adequate 'baseline' conditions with which to compare future changes; 2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; 3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; 4) to adjust multi-model consistency criteria when model biases are large; and 5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

Flood of April 2007 and Flood-Frequency Estimates at Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Western Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2009-01-01

A spring nor'easter affected the East Coast of the United States from April 15 to 18, 2007. In Connecticut, rainfall varied from 3 inches to more than 7 inches. The combined effects of heavy rainfall over a short duration, high winds, and high tides led to widespread flooding, storm damage, power outages, evacuations, and disruptions to traffic and commerce. The storm caused at least 18 fatalities (none in Connecticut). A Presidential Disaster Declaration was issued on May 11, 2007, for two counties in western Connecticut - Fairfield and Litchfield. This report documents hydrologic and meteorologic aspects of the April 2007 flood and includes estimates of the magnitude of the peak discharges and peak stages during the flood at 28 streamflow-gaging stations in western Connecticut. These data were used to perform flood-frequency analyses. Flood-frequency estimates provided in this report are expressed in terms of exceedance probabilities (the probability of a flood reaching or exceeding a particular magnitude in any year). Flood-frequency estimates for the 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.002 exceedance probabilities (also expressed as 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2- percent exceedance probability, respectively) were computed for 24 of the 28 streamflow-gaging stations. Exceedance probabilities can further be expressed in terms of recurrence intervals (2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval, respectively). Flood-frequency estimates computed in this study were compared to the flood-frequency estimates used to derive the water-surface profiles in previously published Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Studies. The estimates in this report update and supersede previously published flood-frequency estimates for streamflowgaging stations in Connecticut by incorporating additional years of annual peak discharges, including the peaks for the April 2007 flood. In the southwest coastal region of Connecticut, the April 2007 peak discharges for streamflow-gaging stations with records extending back to 1955 were the second highest peak discharges on record; the 1955 annual peak discharges are the highest peak discharges in the station records. In the Housatonic and South Central Coast Basins, the April 2007 peak discharges for streamflow-gaging stations with records extending back to 1930 or earlier ranked between the fourth and eighth highest discharges on record, with the 1936, 1938, and 1955 floods as the largest floods in the station records. The peak discharges for the April 2007 flood have exceedance probabilities ranging between 0.10 to 0.02 (a 10- to 2-percent chance of being exceeded in a given year, respectively) with the majority (80 percent) of the stations having exceedance probabilities between 0.10 to 0.04. At three stations - Norwalk River at South Wilton, Pootatuck River at Sandy Hook, and Still River at Robertsville - the April 2007 peak discharges have an exceedance probability of 0.02. Flood-frequency estimates made after the April 2007 flood were compared to flood-frequency estimates used to derive the water-surface profiles (also called flood profiles) in FEMA Flood Insurance Studies developed for communities. In general, the comparison indicated that at the 0.10 exceedance probability (a 10-percent change of being exceeded in a given year), the discharges from the current (2007) flood-frequency analysis are larger than the discharges in the FEMA Flood Insurance Studies, with a median change of about +10 percent. In contrast, at the 0.01 exceedance probability (a 1-percent change of being exceeded in a year), the discharges from the current flood-frequency analysis are smaller than the discharges in the FEMA Flood Insurance Studies, with a median change of about -13 percent. Several stations had more than + 25 percent change in discharges at the 0.10 exceedance probability and are in the following communities: Winchester (Still River at Robertsv

Analysis of magnitude and duration of floods and droughts in the context of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eshetu Debele, Sisay; Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Strupczewski, Witold

2016-04-01

Research and scientific information are key elements of any decision-making process. There is also a strong need for tools to describe and compare in a concise way the regime of hydrological extreme events in the context of presumed climate change. To meet these demands, two complementary methods for estimating high and low-flow frequency characteristics are proposed. Both methods deal with duration and magnitude of extreme events. The first one "flow-duration-frequency" (known as QdF) has already been applied successfully to low-flow analysis, flood flows and rainfall intensity. The second one called "duration-flow-frequency" (DqF) was proposed by Strupczewski et al. in 2010 to flood frequency analysis. The two methods differ in the treatment of flow and duration. In the QdF method the duration (d-consecutive days) is a chosen fixed value and the frequency analysis concerns the annual or seasonal series of mean value of flows exceeded (in the case of floods) or non-exceeded (in the case of droughts) within d-day period. In the second method, DqF, the flows are treated as fixed thresholds and the duration of flows exceeding (floods) and non-exceeding (droughts) these thresholds are a subject of frequency analysis. The comparison of characteristics of floods and droughts in reference period and under future climate conditions for catchments studied within the CHIHE project is presented and a simple way to show the results to non-professionals and decision-makers is proposed. The work was undertaken within the project "Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Extremes (CHIHE)", which is supported by the Norway-Poland Grants Program administered by the Norwegian Research Council. The observed time series were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland. Strupczewski, W. G., Kochanek, K., Markiewicz, I., Bogdanowicz, E., Weglarczyk, S., & Singh V. P. (2010). On the Tails of Distributions of Annual Peak Flow. Hydrology Research, 42, 171-192. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.062

Estimating magnitude and frequency of floods using the PeakFQ 7.0 program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veilleux, Andrea G.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Flynn, Kathleen M.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Hummel, Paul R.

2014-01-01

Flood-frequency analysis provides information about the magnitude and frequency of flood discharges based on records of annual maximum instantaneous peak discharges collected at streamgages. The information is essential for defining flood-hazard areas, for managing floodplains, and for designing bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other flood-control structures. Bulletin 17B (B17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (IACWD; 1982) codifies the standard methodology for conducting flood-frequency studies in the United States. B17B specifies that annual peak-flow data are to be fit to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. Specific methods are also prescribed for improving skew estimates using regional skew information, tests for high and low outliers, adjustments for low outliers and zero flows, and procedures for incorporating historical flood information. The authors of B17B identified various needs for methodological improvement and recommended additional study. In response to these needs, the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI, successor to IACWD; http://acwi.gov/, Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH), Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG), has recommended modest changes to B17B. These changes include adoption of a generalized method-of-moments estimator denoted the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) (Cohn and others, 1997) and a generalized version of the Grubbs-Beck test for low outliers (Cohn and others, 2013). The SOH requested that the USGS implement these changes in a user-friendly, publicly accessible program.

Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, Bruno; Vogel, Hendrik; Crouzet, Christian; Etienne, David; Anselmetti, Flavio S.

2016-04-01

The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 event layers, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The layer thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale, summer-to-autumn convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both Atlantic (local events) and Mediterranean (meso-scale events) climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1300-1900). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both, the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 950-1250). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of high-intensity flood events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in course of 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties in future evolution of flood intensity lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors between the two periods (greenhouse gases vs. solar/volcanic eruptions).

Flood Frequency Curves - Use of information on the likelihood of extreme floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faber, B.

2011-12-01

Investment in the infrastructure that reduces flood risk for flood-prone communities must incorporate information on the magnitude and frequency of flooding in that area. Traditionally, that information has been a probability distribution of annual maximum streamflows developed from the historical gaged record at a stream site. Practice in the United States fits a Log-Pearson type3 distribution to the annual maximum flows of an unimpaired streamflow record, using the method of moments to estimate distribution parameters. The procedure makes the assumptions that annual peak streamflow events are (1) independent, (2) identically distributed, and (3) form a representative sample of the overall probability distribution. Each of these assumptions can be challenged. We rarely have enough data to form a representative sample, and therefore must compute and display the uncertainty in the estimated flood distribution. But, is there a wet/dry cycle that makes precipitation less than independent between successive years? Are the peak flows caused by different types of events from different statistical populations? How does the watershed or climate changing over time (non-stationarity) affect the probability distribution floods? Potential approaches to avoid these assumptions vary from estimating trend and shift and removing them from early data (and so forming a homogeneous data set), to methods that estimate statistical parameters that vary with time. A further issue in estimating a probability distribution of flood magnitude (the flood frequency curve) is whether a purely statistical approach can accurately capture the range and frequency of floods that are of interest. A meteorologically-based analysis produces "probable maximum precipitation" (PMP) and subsequently a "probable maximum flood" (PMF) that attempts to describe an upper bound on flood magnitude in a particular watershed. This analysis can help constrain the upper tail of the probability distribution, well beyond the range of gaged data or even historical or paleo-flood data, which can be very important in risk analyses performed for flood risk management and dam and levee safety studies.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States. Part 13. Snake River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, C.A.; Broom, H.C.; Cummans, J.E.

1963-01-01

The magnitude of a flood of any selected frequency up to 50 years for any site on any stream in the Snake River basin can be determined by methods outlined in this report, with some limitations. The methods are not applicable for regulated streams, for drainage basins smaller than 10 or larger than 5,000 square miles, for streams fed by large springs, or for streams that have flow characteristics materially different from the regional pattern. The magnitude of a flood for a selected frequency at a given site is determined by using the appropriate composite frequency curve and the mean annual flood for the given site. The mean annual flood is computed from either a formula or a nomograph in which drainage area, mean annual precipitation, and a geographic factor are used as independent variables. The standard error of estimate for the computation of mean annual floods is plus 17 percent and minus 15 percent.Nine flood-frequency regions (A-I) are defined. In all except regions B and I, frequency relations vary with the mean altitude of the basin as well as with the geographic location; therefore, families of curves are required for 7 of the 9 flood-frequency regions.The report includes a brief description of the physiography and climate of the Snake River basin to explain the reason for the large variation in mean annual floods, which range from zero to about 27 cubic feet per second per square mile.Composite frequency curves and formulas for computing mean annual floods are based on all suitable flood data collected in the Snake River basin. Tables show the data used to derive the formula. Following the analysis of data are station descriptions and lists of peak stages and discharges for 295 gaging stations at which 5 or more years of annual flood records were collected pr'or to Sept. 30, 1957. Many flood peak data are not usable in defining the frequency curves and deriving the formula because of large diversions and regulation upstream from the gaging stations.

Estimating flood magnitude and frequency for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2014-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are essential for the design of transportation and water-conveyance structures, flood insurance studies, and flood-plain management. Flood-frequency estimates are particularly important in densely populated urban areas. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) used a multistate approach to update methods for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban and small, rural streams that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina (Feaster and others, 2014). The multistate approach has the advantage over a single state approach of increasing the number of streamflow-gaging station (streamgages) available for analysis, expanding the geographical coverage that would allow for application of regional regression equations across state boundaries, and building on a previous flood-frequency investigation of rural streamgages in the Southeastern United States. This investigation was funded as part of a cooperative program of water-resources investigations between the USGS, the South Carolina Department of Transportation, and the North Carolina Department of Transportation. In addition, much of the data and information for the Georgia streamgages was funded through a similar cooperative program with the Georgia Department of Transportation.

Conditional flood frequency and catchment state: a simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brettschneider, Marco; Bourgin, François; Merz, Bruno; Andreassian, Vazken; Blaquiere, Simon

2017-04-01

Catchments have memory and the conditional flood frequency distribution for a time period ahead can be seen as non-stationary: it varies with the catchment state and climatic factors. From a risk management perspective, understanding the link of conditional flood frequency to catchment state is a key to anticipate potential periods of higher flood risk. Here, we adopt a simulation approach to explore the link between flood frequency obtained by continuous rainfall-runoff simulation and the initial state of the catchment. The simulation chain is based on i) a three state rainfall generator applied at the catchment scale, whose parameters are estimated for each month, and ii) the GR4J lumped rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters are calibrated with all available data. For each month, a large number of stochastic realizations of the continuous rainfall generator for the next 12 months are used as inputs for the GR4J model in order to obtain a large number of stochastic realizations for the next 12 months. This process is then repeated for 50 different initial states of the soil moisture reservoir of the GR4J model and for all the catchments. Thus, 50 different conditional flood frequency curves are obtained for the 50 different initial catchment states. We will present an analysis of the link between the catchment states, the period of the year and the strength of the conditioning of the flood frequency compared to the unconditional flood frequency. A large sample of diverse catchments in France will be used.

Periodic temperature-associated drought/flood drives locust plagues in China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Zhibin; Cazelles, Bernard; Tian, Huidong; Christian Stige, Leif; Bräuning, Achim; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2008-01-01

Global warming is currently of great concern. Yet the ecological effects of low-frequency climate variations remain largely unknown. Recent analyses of interdecadal variability in population abundance of the Oriental migratory locust (Locusta migratoria manilensis) in China have revealed negative associations with temperature and positive associations with Yangtze drought and flood frequencies during the past millennium (AD 957–1956). In order to shed new light on the causal relationships between locust abundance, floods, droughts and temperature in ancient China, we used wavelet analysis to explore how the coherencies between the different variables at different frequencies have been changed during the past millennium. We find consistent in-phase coherencies between locusts and drought/flood frequencies, and out-of-phase coherencies between locusts and temperature and between drought/flood and temperature at period components of 160–170 years. Similar results are obtained when historical data of drought/flood frequencies of the Yangtze Delta region are used, despite flood data showing a weak and somewhat inconsistent association with other factors. We suggest that previously unreported periodic cooling of 160–170-year intervals dominate climatic variability in China through the past millennium, the cooling events promoting locust plagues by enhancing temperature-associated drought/flood events. Our results signify a rare example of possible benign effects of global warming on the regional risk of natural disasters such as flood/drought events and outbreaks of pest insects. PMID:19033144

Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, B.; Vogel, H.; Crouzet, C.; Etienne, D.; Anselmetti, F. S.

2015-10-01

The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 turbidites, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The deposit thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both, the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of these events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in course of 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors (greenhouse gases vs. solar/volcanic eruptions).

Flood Frequency Analysis using different flood descriptors - the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karamuz, Emilia; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Romanowicz, Renata

2014-05-01

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is customarily performed using annual maximum flows. However, there is a number of different flood descriptors that could be used. Among them are water levels, peaks over the threshold, flood-wave duration, flood volume, etc. In this study we compare different approaches to FFA for their suitability for flood risk assessment. The main goal is to obtain the FFA curve with the smallest possible uncertainty limits, in particular for the distribution tail. The extrapolation of FFA curves is crucial in future flood risk assessment in a changing climate. We compare the FFA curves together with their uncertainty limits obtained using flows, water levels, flood inundation area and volumes for the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula. Moreover, we derive the FFA curves obtained using simulated flows. The results are used to derive the error distribution for the maximum simulated and observed values under different modelling techniques and assess its influence on flood risk predictions for ungauged catchments. MIKE11, HEC-RAS and transfer function model are applied in average and extreme conditions to model flow propagation in the Warsaw Vistula reach. The additional questions we want to answer are what is the range of application of different modelling tools under various flow conditions and how can the uncertainty of flood risk assessment be decreased. This work was partly supported by the projects "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)" and "Modern statistical models for analysis of flood frequency and features of flood waves", carried by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences on the order of the National Science Centre (contracts Nos. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866 and 2012/05/B/ST10/00482, respectively). The water level and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarini, G.; Smith, J.A.; Serinaldi, F.; Bales, J.; Bates, P.D.; Krajewski, W.F.

2009-01-01

Flood frequency analysis in urban watersheds is complicated by nonstationarities of annual peak records associated with land use change and evolving urban stormwater infrastructure. In this study, a framework for flood frequency analysis is developed based on the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape parameters (GAMLSS), a tool for modeling time series under nonstationary conditions. GAMLSS is applied to annual maximum peak discharge records for Little Sugar Creek, a highly urbanized watershed which drains the urban core of Charlotte, North Carolina. It is shown that GAMLSS is able to describe the variability in the mean and variance of the annual maximum peak discharge by modeling the parameters of the selected parametric distribution as a smooth function of time via cubic splines. Flood frequency analyses for Little Sugar Creek (at a drainage area of 110 km2) show that the maximum flow with a 0.01-annual probability (corresponding to 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) over the 83-year record has ranged from a minimum unit discharge of 2.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2 to a maximum of 5.1 m3 s- 1 km- 2. An alternative characterization can be made by examining the estimated return interval of the peak discharge that would have an annual exceedance probability of 0.01 under the assumption of stationarity (3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2). Under nonstationary conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. Under the GAMLSS model, the return interval of an annual peak discharge of 3.2 m3 s- 1 km- 2 ranges from a maximum value of more than 5000 years in 1957 to a minimum value of almost 8 years for the present time (2007). The GAMLSS framework is also used to examine the links between population trends and flood frequency, as well as trends in annual maximum rainfall. These analyses are used to examine evolving flood frequency over future decades. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in western Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, David Dell; Hubbard, Larry L.; Hubbard, Lawrence E.

1979-01-01

A method for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods is presented for unregulated streams in western Oregon. Equations relating flood magnitude to basin characteristics were developed for exceedance probabilities of 0.5 to 0.01 (2- to 100-year recurrence intervals). Separate equations are presented for four regions: Coast, Willamette, Rogue-Umpqua, and High Cascades. Also presented are values of flood discharges for selected exceedance probabilities and of basin characteristics for all gaging stations used in the analysis. Included are data for 230 stations in Oregon, 6 stations in southwestern Washington, and 3 stations in northwestern California. Drainage areas used in the analysis range from 0.21 to 7,280 square miles. Also included are maximum discharges for all western Oregon stations used in the analysis. (Woodard-USGS)

Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, B.; Vogel, H.; Crouzet, C.; Etienne, D.; Anselmetti, F. S.

2016-02-01

Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by studying a lake sequence (Lake Foréant) of the Western European Alps. High-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis revealed 171 event layers, 168 of which result from past flood events over the last millennium. The layer thickness was used as a proxy of intensity of past floods. Because the Foréant palaeoflood record is in agreement with the documented variability of historical floods resulting from local and mesoscale, summer-to-autumn convective events, it is assumed to highlight changes in flood frequency and intensity related to such events typical of both Atlantic (local events) and Mediterranean (mesoscale events) climatic influences. Comparing the Foréant record with other Atlantic-influenced and Mediterranean-influenced regional flood records highlights a common feature in all flood patterns that is a higher flood frequency during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA, AD 1300-1900). In contrast, high-intensity flood events are apparent during both the cold LIA and the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, AD 950-1250). However, there is a tendency towards higher frequencies of high-intensity flood events during the warm MCA. The MCA extremes could mean that under the global warming scenario, we might see an increase in intensity (not in frequency). However, the flood frequency and intensity in the course of the 20th century warming trend did not change significantly. Uncertainties in future evolution of flood intensity lie in the interpretation of the lack of 20th century extremes (transition or stable?) and the different climate forcing factors between the two periods (greenhouse gases vs. solar and/or volcanic eruptions).

Evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban watersheds in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.

2014-01-01

Flooding in urban areas routinely causes severe damage to property and often results in loss of life. To investigate the effect of urbanization on the magnitude and frequency of flood peaks, a flood frequency analysis was carried out using data from urbanized streamgaging stations in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona. Flood peaks at each station were predicted using the log-Pearson Type III distribution, fitted using the expected moments algorithm and the multiple Grubbs-Beck low outlier test. The station estimates were then compared to flood peaks estimated by rural-regression equations for Arizona, and to flood peaks adjusted for urbanization using a previously developed procedure for adjusting U.S. Geological Survey rural regression peak discharges in an urban setting. Only smaller, more common flood peaks at the 50-, 20-, 10-, and 4-percent annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) demonstrate any increase in magnitude as a result of urbanization; the 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP flood estimates are predicted without bias by the rural-regression equations. Percent imperviousness was determined not to account for the difference in estimated flood peaks between stations, either when adjusting the rural-regression equations or when deriving urban-regression equations to predict flood peaks directly from basin characteristics. Comparison with urban adjustment equations indicates that flood peaks are systematically overestimated if the rural-regression-estimated flood peaks are adjusted upward to account for urbanization. At nearly every streamgaging station in the analysis, adjusted rural-regression estimates were greater than the estimates derived using station data. One likely reason for the lack of increase in flood peaks with urbanization is the presence of significant stormwater retention and detention structures within the watershed used in the study.

Documentary evidence of past floods in Europe and their utility in flood frequency estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjeldsen, T. R.; Macdonald, N.; Lang, M.; Mediero, L.; Albuquerque, T.; Bogdanowicz, E.; Brázdil, R.; Castellarin, A.; David, V.; Fleig, A.; Gül, G. O.; Kriauciuniene, J.; Kohnová, S.; Merz, B.; Nicholson, O.; Roald, L. A.; Salinas, J. L.; Sarauskiene, D.; Šraj, M.; Strupczewski, W.; Szolgay, J.; Toumazis, A.; Vanneuville, W.; Veijalainen, N.; Wilson, D.

2014-09-01

This review outlines the use of documentary evidence of historical flood events in contemporary flood frequency estimation in European countries. The study shows that despite widespread consensus in the scientific literature on the utility of documentary evidence, the actual migration from academic to practical application has been limited. A detailed review of flood frequency estimation guidelines from different countries showed that the value of historical data is generally recognised, but practical methods for systematic and routine inclusion of this type of data into risk analysis are in most cases not available. Studies of historical events were identified in most countries, and good examples of national databases attempting to collate the available information were identified. The conclusion is that there is considerable potential for improving the reliability of the current flood risk assessments by harvesting the valuable information on past extreme events contained in the historical data sets.

Extending the flood record on the Middle Gila River with Holocene stratigraphy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huckleberry, G.

1993-04-01

Historical changes in flood frequency and magnitude are correlated to changes in channel geometry for the Middle Gila River (MGR) in south-central Arizona. The author has attempted to reconstruct the frequency of large floods on the MGR for the last 1,000 years by looking at the stratigraphic record with the purpose of modeling channel changes during a period of significant local cultural change, i.e., the Hohokam-Pima cultural transition. After distinguishing and mapping geological surfaces in the eastern part of the Gila River Indian Community. The author placed a series of backhoe trenches on late Holocene MGR terraces. He interprets lithologicalmore » discontinuities within overbank deposits as boundaries separating temporally discrete floods. Detrital charcoal from within the stratigraphy was submitted to the National Science Foundation-University of Arizona AMS facility for radiocarbon analysis. The stratigraphic record indicates that a minimum of four large floods have occurred on the MGR since A.D. 1300. Three of these floods may correspond to large historical floods in 1833, 1868, and 1905. If so, then it appears that MGR flood frequency increased after A.D. 1800. There is no evidence for increased flood frequency and channel transformations during the cultural decline of the Hohokam in the 15th century.« less

Nonlinear Filtering Effects of Reservoirs on Flood Frequency Curves at the Regional Scale: RESERVOIRS FILTER FLOOD FREQUENCY CURVES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Wei; Li, Hong-Yi; Leung, L. Ruby

Anthropogenic activities, e.g., reservoir operation, may alter the characteristics of Flood Frequency Curve (FFC) and challenge the basic assumption of stationarity used in flood frequency analysis. This paper presents a combined data-modeling analysis of the nonlinear filtering effects of reservoirs on the FFCs over the contiguous United States. A dimensionless Reservoir Impact Index (RII), defined as the total upstream reservoir storage capacity normalized by the annual streamflow volume, is used to quantify reservoir regulation effects. Analyses are performed for 388 river stations with an average record length of 50 years. The first two moments of the FFC, mean annual maximummore » flood (MAF) and coefficient of variations (CV), are calculated for the pre- and post-dam periods and compared to elucidate the reservoir regulation effects as a function of RII. It is found that MAF generally decreases with increasing RII but stabilizes when RII exceeds a threshold value, and CV increases with RII until a threshold value beyond which CV decreases with RII. The processes underlying the nonlinear threshold behavior of MAF and CV are investigated using three reservoir models with different levels of complexity. All models capture the non-linear relationships of MAF and CV with RII, suggesting that the basic flood control function of reservoirs is key to the non-linear relationships. The relative roles of reservoir storage capacity, operation objectives, available storage prior to a flood event, and reservoir inflow pattern are systematically investigated. Our findings may help improve flood-risk assessment and mitigation in regulated river systems at the regional scale.« less

Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

2007-01-01

The Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania experienced severe flooding as a result of intense rainfall during June 2006. The height of the flood waters on the rivers and tributaries approached or exceeded the peak of record at many locations. Updated flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations on tributaries in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins were analyzed using data through the 2006 water year to determine if there were any major differences in the flood-discharge data. Flood frequencies for return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years (Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, Q100, and Q500) were determined from annual maximum series (AMS) data from continuous-record gaging stations (stations) and were compared to flood discharges obtained from previously published Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) and to flood frequencies using partial-duration series (PDS) data. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to determine any statistically significant differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS. Percentage differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS also were determined for the 10, 50, 100, and 500 return intervals. A Mann-Kendall trend test was performed to determine statistically significant trends in the updated AMS peak-flow data for the period of record at the 41 stations. In addition to AMS station data, PDS data were used to determine flood-frequency discharges. The AMS and PDS flood-frequency data were compared to determine any differences between the two data sets. An analysis also was performed on AMS-derived flood frequencies for four stations to evaluate the possible effects of flood-control reservoirs on peak flows. Additionally, flood frequencies for three stations were evaluated to determine possible effects of urbanization on peak flows. The results of the Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed a significant difference at the 95-percent confidence level between the Q100 computed from AMS station data and the Q100 determined from previously published FIS for 97 sites. The flood-frequency discharges computed from AMS station data were consistently larger than the flood discharges from the FIS; mean percentage difference between the two data sets ranged from 14 percent for the Q100 to 20 percent for the Q50. The results of the Mann-Kendall test showed that 8 stations exhibited a positive trend (i.e., increasing annual maximum peaks over time) over their respective periods of record at the 95-percent confidence level, and an additional 7 stations indicated a positive trend, for a total of 15 stations, at a confidence level of greater than or equal to 90 percent. The Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, and Q100 determined from AMS and PDS data for each station were compared by percentage. The flood magnitudes for the 2-year return period were 16 percent higher when partial-duration peaks were incorporated into the analyses, as opposed to using only the annual maximum peaks. The discharges then tended to converge around the 5-year return period, with a mean collective difference of only 1 percent. At the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods, the flood magnitudes based on annual maximum peaks were, on average, 6 percent higher compared to corresponding flood magnitudes based on partial-duration peaks. Possible effects on flood peaks from flood-control reservoirs and urban development within the basin also were examined. Annual maximum peak-flow data from four stations were divided into pre- and post-regulation periods. Comparisons were made between the Q100 determined from AMS station data for the periods of record pre- and post-regulation. Two stations showed a nearly 60- and 20-percent reduction in the 100-year discharges; the other two stations showed negligible differences in discharges. Three stations within urban basins were compared to 38 stations

Inclusion of historical information in flood frequency analysis using a Bayesian MCMC technique: a case study for the power dam Orlík, Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Szolgay, Ján; Kohnová, Silvia; Hlavčová, Kamila; Viglione, Alberto

2010-01-01

The paper deals with at-site flood frequency estimation in the case when also information on hydrological events from the past with extraordinary magnitude are available. For the joint frequency analysis of systematic observations and historical data, respectively, the Bayesian framework is chosen, which, through adequately defined likelihood functions, allows for incorporation of different sources of hydrological information, e.g., maximum annual flood peaks, historical events as well as measurement errors. The distribution of the parameters of the fitted distribution function and the confidence intervals of the flood quantiles are derived by means of the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) technique. The paper presents a sensitivity analysis related to the choice of the most influential parameters of the statistical model, which are the length of the historical period h and the perception threshold X0. These are involved in the statistical model under the assumption that except for the events termed as ‘historical’ ones, none of the (unknown) peak discharges from the historical period h should have exceeded the threshold X0. Both higher values of h and lower values of X0 lead to narrower confidence intervals of the estimated flood quantiles; however, it is emphasized that one should be prudent of selecting those parameters, in order to avoid making inferences with wrong assumptions on the unknown hydrological events having occurred in the past. The Bayesian MCMC methodology is presented on the example of the maximum discharges observed during the warm half year at the station Vltava-Kamýk (Czech Republic) in the period 1877-2002. Although the 2002 flood peak, which is related to the vast flooding that affected a large part of Central Europe at that time, occurred in the near past, in the analysis it is treated virtually as a ‘historical’ event in order to illustrate some crucial aspects of including information on extreme historical floods into at-site flood frequency analyses.

An Exploration of the Importance of Flood Heterogeneity for Regionalization in Arizona using the Expected Moments Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamora-Reyes, D.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Paretti, N. V.

2012-12-01

Bulletin 17B (B17B) has prevailed for 30 years as the standard manual for determining flood frequency in the United States. Recently proposed updates to B17B include revising the issue of flood heterogeneity, and improving flood estimates by using the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) which can better address low outliers and accommodate information on historical peaks. Incorporating information on mixed populations, such as flood-causing mechanisms, into flood estimates for regions that have noticeable flood heterogeneity can be statistically challenging when systematic flood records are short. The problem magnifies when the population sample size is reduced by decomposing the record, especially if multiple flood mechanisms are involved. In B17B, the guidelines for dealing with mixed populations focus primarily on how to rule out any need to perform a mixed-population analysis. However, in some regions mixed flood populations are critically important determinants of regional flood frequency variations and should be explored from this perspective. Arizona is an area with a heterogeneous mixture of flood processes due to: warm season convective thunderstorms, cool season synoptic-scale storms, and tropical cyclone-enhanced convective activity occurring in the late summer or early fall. USGS station data throughout Arizona was compiled into a database and each flood peak (annual and partial duration series) was classified according to its meteorological cause. Using these data, we have explored the role of flood heterogeneity in Arizona flood estimates through composite flood frequency analysis based on mixed flood populations using EMA. First, for selected stations, the three flood-causing populations were separated out from the systematic annual flood series record and analyzed individually. Second, to create composite probability curves, the individual curves for each of the three populations were generated and combined using Crippen's (1978) composite probability equations for sites that have two or more independent flood populations. Finally, the individual probability curves generated for each of the three flood-causing populations were compared with both the site's composite probability curve and the standard B17B curve to explore the influence of heterogeneity using the 100-year and 200-year flood estimates as a basis of comparison. Results showed that sites located in southern Arizona and along the abrupt elevation transition zone of the Mogollon Rim exhibit a better fit to the systematic data using their composite probability curves than the curves derived from standard B17B analysis. Synoptic storm floods and tropical cyclone-enhanced floods had the greatest influence on 100-year and 200-year flood estimates. This was especially true in southern Arizona, even though summer convective floods are much more frequent and therefore dominate the composite curve. Using the EMA approach also influenced our results because all possible low outliers were censored by the built-in Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test, providing a better fit to the systematic data in the upper probabilities. In conclusion, flood heterogeneity can play an important role in regional flood frequency variations in Arizona and that understanding its influence is important when making projections about future flood variations.

Revisiting regional flood frequency analysis in Slovakia: the region-of-influence method vs. traditional regional approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Kohnová, Silvia; Szolgay, Ján.

2010-05-01

During the last 10-15 years, the Slovak hydrologists and water resources managers have been devoting considerable efforts to develop statistical tools for modelling probabilities of flood occurrence in a regional context. Initially, these models followed concepts to regional flood frequency analysis that were based on fixed regions, later the Hosking and Wallis's (HW; 1997) theory was adopted and modified. Nevertheless, it turned out to be that delineating homogeneous regions using these approaches is not a straightforward task, mostly due to the complex orography of the country. In this poster we aim at revisiting flood frequency analyses so far accomplished for Slovakia by adopting one of the pooling approaches, i.e. the region-of-influence (ROI) approach (Burn, 1990). In the ROI approach, unique pooling groups of similar sites are defined for each site under study. The similarity of sites is defined through Euclidean distance in the space of site attributes that had also proved applicability in former cluster analyses: catchment area, afforested area, hydrogeological catchment index and the mean annual precipitation. The homogeneity of the proposed pooling groups is evaluated by the built-in homogeneity test by Lu and Stedinger (1992). Two alternatives of the ROI approach are examined: in the first one the target size of the pooling groups is adjusted to the target return period T of the estimated flood quantiles, while in the other one, the target size is fixed, regardless of the target T. The statistical models of the ROI approach are inter-compared by the conventional regionalization approach based on the HW methodology where the parameters of flood frequency distributions were derived by means of L-moment statistics and a regional formula for the estimation of the index flood was derived by multiple regression methods using physiographic and climatic catchment characteristics. The inter-comparison of different frequency models is evaluated by means of the root mean square error of data from Monte Carlo simulations. The analysis is based on the annual peak discharges from 168 small and mid-sized catchments from Slovakia. The study is supported by the Grant Agency of AS CR under project B300420801; the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract No. APVV-0443-07 and the Slovak VEGA Grant Agency under the project No. 1/0103/10. Burn, D.H., 1990: Evaluation of regional flood frequency analysis with a region of influence approach. Water Resources Research, 26(10), 2257-2265. Hosking, J.R.M., Wallis, J.R., 1997: Regional frequency analysis: an approach based on L-moments. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Lu, L.-H., Stedinger, J.R., 1992: Sampling variance of normalized GEV/PWM quantile estimators and a regional homogeneity test. Journal of Hydrology, 138(1-2), 223-245.

A holistic approach for large-scale derived flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Apel, Heiko; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Sergiy, Vorogushyn; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Spatial consistency, which has been usually disregarded because of the reported methodological difficulties, is increasingly demanded in regional flood hazard (and risk) assessments. This study aims at developing a holistic approach for deriving flood frequency at large scale consistently. A large scale two-component model has been established for simulating very long-term multisite synthetic meteorological fields and flood flow at many gauged and ungauged locations hence reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The model has been applied for the region of nearly a half million km2 including Germany and parts of nearby countries. The model performance has been multi-objectively examined with a focus on extreme. By this continuous simulation approach, flood quantiles for the studied region have been derived successfully and provide useful input for a comprehensive flood risk study.

Effect of catchment properties and flood generation regime on copula selection for bivariate flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Filipova, Valeriya; Lawrence, Deborah; Klempe, Harald

2018-02-01

Applying copula-based bivariate flood frequency analysis is advantageous because the results provide information on both the flood peak and volume. More data are, however, required for such an analysis, and it is often the case that only data series with a limited record length are available. To overcome this issue of limited record length, data regarding climatic and geomorphological properties can be used to complement statistical methods. In this paper, we present a study of 27 catchments located throughout Norway, in which we assess whether catchment properties, flood generation processes and flood regime have an effect on the correlation between flood peak and volume and, in turn, on the selection of copulas. To achieve this, the annual maximum flood events were first classified into events generated primarily by rainfall, snowmelt or a combination of these. The catchments were then classified into flood regime, depending on the predominant flood generation process producing the annual maximum flood events. A contingency table and Fisher's exact test were used to determine the factors that affect the selection of copulas in the study area. The results show that the two-parameter copulas BB1 and BB7 are more commonly selected in catchments with high steepness, high mean annual runoff and rainfall flood regime. These findings suggest that in these types of catchments, the dependence structure between flood peak and volume is more complex and cannot be modeled effectively using a one-parameter copula. The results illustrate that by relating copula types to flood regime and catchment properties, additional information can be supplied for selecting copulas in catchments with limited data.

A generalized Grubbs-Beck test statistic for detecting multiple potentially influential low outliers in flood series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, T.A.; England, J.F.; Berenbrock, C.E.; Mason, R.R.; Stedinger, J.R.; Lamontagne, J.R.

2013-01-01

he Grubbs-Beck test is recommended by the federal guidelines for detection of low outliers in flood flow frequency computation in the United States. This paper presents a generalization of the Grubbs-Beck test for normal data (similar to the Rosner (1983) test; see also Spencer and McCuen (1996)) that can provide a consistent standard for identifying multiple potentially influential low flows. In cases where low outliers have been identified, they can be represented as “less-than” values, and a frequency distribution can be developed using censored-data statistical techniques, such as the Expected Moments Algorithm. This approach can improve the fit of the right-hand tail of a frequency distribution and provide protection from lack-of-fit due to unimportant but potentially influential low flows (PILFs) in a flood series, thus making the flood frequency analysis procedure more robust.

A generalized Grubbs-Beck test statistic for detecting multiple potentially influential low outliers in flood series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, T. A.; England, J. F.; Berenbrock, C. E.; Mason, R. R.; Stedinger, J. R.; Lamontagne, J. R.

2013-08-01

The Grubbs-Beck test is recommended by the federal guidelines for detection of low outliers in flood flow frequency computation in the United States. This paper presents a generalization of the Grubbs-Beck test for normal data (similar to the Rosner (1983) test; see also Spencer and McCuen (1996)) that can provide a consistent standard for identifying multiple potentially influential low flows. In cases where low outliers have been identified, they can be represented as "less-than" values, and a frequency distribution can be developed using censored-data statistical techniques, such as the Expected Moments Algorithm. This approach can improve the fit of the right-hand tail of a frequency distribution and provide protection from lack-of-fit due to unimportant but potentially influential low flows (PILFs) in a flood series, thus making the flood frequency analysis procedure more robust.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.

PubMed

Dahl, Kristina A; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

PubMed Central

Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years. PMID:28158209

Understanding high magnitude flood risk: evidence from the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, N.

2009-04-01

The average length of gauged river flow records in the UK is ~25 years, which presents a problem in determining flood risk for high-magnitude flood events. Severe floods have been recorded in many UK catchments during the past 10 years, increasing the uncertainty in conventional flood risk estimates based on river flow records. Current uncertainty in flood risk has implications for society (insurance costs), individuals (personal vulnerability) and water resource managers (flood/drought risk). An alternative approach is required which can improve current understanding of the flood frequency/magnitude relationship. Historical documentary accounts are now recognised as a valuable resource when considering the flood frequency/magnitude relationship, but little consideration has been given to the temporal and spatial distribution of these records. Building on previous research based on British rivers (urban centre): Ouse (York), Trent (Nottingham), Tay (Perth), Severn (Shrewsbury), Dee (Chester), Great Ouse (Cambridge), Sussex Ouse (Lewes), Thames (Oxford), Tweed (Kelso) and Tyne (Hexham), this work considers the spatial and temporal distribution of historical flooding. The selected sites provide a network covering many of the largest river catchments in Britain, based on urban centres with long detailed documentary flood histories. The chronologies offer an opportunity to assess long-term patterns of flooding, indirectly determining periods of climatic variability and potentially increased geomorphic activity. This research represents the first coherent large scale analysis undertaken of historical multi-catchment flood chronologies, providing an unparalleled network of sites, permitting analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of historical flood patterns on a national scale.

How extreme was the October 2015 flood in the Carolinas? An assessment of flood frequency analysis and distribution tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. C.; Samadi, S. Z.; Meadows, M. E.

2018-07-01

This paper examines the frequency, distribution tails, and peak-over-threshold (POT) of extreme floods through analysis that centers on the October 2015 flooding in North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC), United States (US). The most striking features of the October 2015 flooding were a short time to peak (Tp) and a multi-hour continuous flood peak which caused intensive and widespread damages to human lives, properties, and infrastructure. The 2015 flooding was produced by a sequence of intense rainfall events which originated from category 4 hurricane Joaquin over a period of four days. Here, the probability distribution and distribution parameters (i.e., location, scale, and shape) of floods were investigated by comparing the upper part of empirical distributions of the annual maximum flood (AMF) and POT with light- to heavy- theoretical tails: Fréchet, Pareto, Gumbel, Weibull, Beta, and Exponential. Specifically, four sets of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauging data from the central Carolinas with record lengths from approximately 65-125 years were used. Analysis suggests that heavier-tailed distributions are in better agreement with the POT and somewhat AMF data than more often used exponential (light) tailed probability distributions. Further, the threshold selection and record length affect the heaviness of the tail and fluctuations of the parent distributions. The shape parameter and its evolution in the period of record play a critical and poorly understood role in determining the scaling of flood response to intense rainfall.

Analysis of the linkage between rain and flood regime and its application to regional flood frequency estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Burn, Donald H.

2002-04-01

Improving techniques of flood frequency estimation at ungauged sites is one of the foremost goals of contemporary hydrology. River flood regime is a resultant reflection of a composite catchment hydrologic response to flood producing processes. In this sense the process of identifying homogeneous pooling groups can be plausibly based on catchment similarity in flood regime. Unfortunately the application of any pooling approach that is based on flood regime is restricted to gauged sites. Because flood regime can be markedly determined by rainfall regime, catchment similarity in rainfall regime can be an alternative option for identifying flood frequency pooling groups. An advantage of such a pooling approach is that rainfall data are usually spatially and temporary more abundant than flood data and the approach can also be applied at ungauged sites. Therefore in this study we have quantified the linkage between rainfall and flood regime and explored the appropriateness of substituting rainfall regime for flood regime in regional pooling schemes. Two different approaches to describing rainfall regime similarity using tools of directional statistics have been tested and used for evaluation of the potential of rainfall regime for identification of hydrologically homogeneous pooling groups. The outputs were compared to an existing pooling framework adopted in the Flood Estimation Handbook. The results demonstrate that regional pooling based on rainfall regime information leads to a high number of initially homogeneous groups and seems to be a sound pooling alternative for catchments with a close linkage between rain and flood regimes.

Methodology for Estimation of Flood Magnitude and Frequency for New Jersey Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Schopp, Robert D.

2009-01-01

Methodologies were developed for estimating flood magnitudes at the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals for unregulated or slightly regulated streams in New Jersey. Regression equations that incorporate basin characteristics were developed to estimate flood magnitude and frequency for streams throughout the State by use of a generalized least squares regression analysis. Relations between flood-frequency estimates based on streamflow-gaging-station discharge and basin characteristics were determined by multiple regression analysis, and weighted by effective years of record. The State was divided into five hydrologically similar regions to refine the regression equations. The regression analysis indicated that flood discharge, as determined by the streamflow-gaging-station annual peak flows, is related to the drainage area, main channel slope, percentage of lake and wetland areas in the basin, population density, and the flood-frequency region, at the 95-percent confidence level. The standard errors of estimate for the various recurrence-interval floods ranged from 48.1 to 62.7 percent. Annual-maximum peak flows observed at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2007 and basin characteristics determined using geographic information system techniques for 254 streamflow-gaging stations were used for the regression analysis. Drainage areas of the streamflow-gaging stations range from 0.18 to 779 mi2. Peak-flow data and basin characteristics for 191 streamflow-gaging stations located in New Jersey were used, along with peak-flow data for stations located in adjoining States, including 25 stations in Pennsylvania, 17 stations in New York, 16 stations in Delaware, and 5 stations in Maryland. Streamflow records for selected stations outside of New Jersey were included in the present study because hydrologic, physiographic, and geologic boundaries commonly extend beyond political boundaries. The StreamStats web application was developed cooperatively by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc., and was designed for national implementation. This web application has been recently implemented for use in New Jersey. This program used in conjunction with a geographic information system provides the computation of values for selected basin characteristics, estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies, and statistics for stream locations in New Jersey chosen by the user, whether the site is gaged or ungaged.

Determination of Flood Reduction Alternatives for Climate Change Adaptation in Gyeongancheon basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, D.; Joo, H. J.; Jung, J.; Kim, H. S.

2017-12-01

Recently, the frequency of extreme rainfall event has increased due to the climate change and the impermeable area in an urban watershed has also increased due to the rapid urbanization. Therefore, the flood risk is increasing and we ought to prepare countermeasures for flood damage reduction. For the determination of appropriate measures or alternatives, firstly, this study estimated the frequency based rainfall considering the climate change according to the each target period(reference : 1971˜2010, Target period Ⅰ : 2011˜2040, Target period Ⅱ : 2041˜2070, Target period Ⅲ : 2071˜2100). Then the future flood discharge was computed by using HEC-HMS model. We set 5 sizes of drainage pumps and detention ponds respectively as the flood reduction alternatives and the flood level in the river was obtained by each alternative through HEC-RAS model. The flood inundation map was constructed using topographical data and flood water level in the river and the economic analysis was conducted for the flood damage reduction studies using Multi Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis (MD-FDA) tool. As a result of the effectiveness analysis of the flood reduction alternatives, the flood level by drainage pump was reduced by 0.06m up to 0.44m while it was reduced by 0.01m up to 1.86m in the case of the detention pond. The flooded area was shrunk by up to 32.64% from 0.3% and inundation depth was also dropped. As a result of a comparison of the Benefit/Cost ratio estimated by the economic analysis, a detention pond E in the target period Ⅰ and the pump D in the periods Ⅱ and Ⅲ were considered as the appropriate alternatives for the flood damage reduction under the climate change. AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning(2017R1A2B3005695)

A Study on Active Disaster Management System for Standardized Emergency Action Plan using BIM and Flood Damage Estimation Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, C.; Om, J.; Hwang, J.; Joo, K.; Heo, J.

2013-12-01

In recent, the frequency of extreme flood has been increasing due to climate change and global warming. Highly flood damages are mainly caused by the collapse of flood control structures such as dam and dike. In order to reduce these disasters, the disaster management system (DMS) through flood forecasting, inundation mapping, EAP (Emergency Action Plan) has been studied. The estimation of inundation damage and practical EAP are especially crucial to the DMS. However, it is difficult to predict inundation and take a proper action through DMS in real emergency situation because several techniques for inundation damage estimation are not integrated and EAP is supplied in the form of a document in Korea. In this study, the integrated simulation system including rainfall frequency analysis, rainfall-runoff modeling, inundation prediction, surface runoff analysis, and inland flood analysis was developed. Using this system coupled with standard GIS data, inundation damage can be estimated comprehensively and automatically. The standard EAP based on BIM (Building Information Modeling) was also established in this system. It is, therefore, expected that the inundation damages through this study over the entire area including buildings can be predicted and managed.

On hydrologic similarity: A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphologic unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sivapalan, Murugesu; Wood, Eric F.; Beven, Keith J.

1993-01-01

One of the shortcomings of the original theory of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) is that it assumes that runoff is generated uniformly from the entire catchment area. It is now recognized that in many catchments much of the runoff during storm events is produced on partial areas which usually form on narrow bands along the stream network. A storm response model that includes runoff generation on partial areas by both Hortonian and Dunne mechanisms was recently developed by the authors. In this paper a methodology for integrating this partial area runoff generation model with the GUH-based runoff routing model is presented; this leads to a generalized GUH. The generalized GUH and the storm response model are then used to estimate physically based flood frequency distributions. In most previous work the initial moisture state of the catchment had been assumed to be constant for all the storms. In this paper we relax this assumption and allow the initial moisture conditions to vary between storms. The resulting flood frequency distributions are cast in a scaled dimensionless framework where issues such as catchment scale and similarity can be conveniently addressed. A number of experiments are performed to study the sensitivity of the flood frequency response to some of the 'similarity' parameters identified in this formulation. The results indicate that one of the most important components of the derived flood frequency model relates to the specification of processes within the runoff generation model; specifically the inclusion of both saturation excess and Horton infiltration excess runoff production mechanisms. The dominance of these mechanisms over different return periods of the flood frequency distribution can significantly affect the distributional shape and confidence limits about the distribution. Comparisons with observed flood distributions seem to indicate that such mixed runoff production mechanisms influence flood distribution shape. The sensitivity analysis also indicated that the incorporation of basin and rainfall storm scale also greatly influences the distributional shape of the flood frequency curve.

Methods for determining magnitude and frequency of floods in California, based on data through water year 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.; Barth, Nancy A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Parrett, Charles

2012-01-01

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in California that are not substantially affected by regulation or diversions have been updated. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2006 were analyzed for 771 streamflow-gaging stations (streamgages) in California having 10 or more years of data. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the streamgages by using the expected moments algorithm to fit a Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage. Low-outlier and historic information were incorporated into the flood-frequency analysis, and a generalized Grubbs-Beck test was used to detect multiple potentially influential low outliers. Special methods for fitting the distribution were developed for streamgages in the desert region in southeastern California. Additionally, basin characteristics for the streamgages were computed by using a geographical information system. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins in California that are outside of the southeastern desert region. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 630 streamgages were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. Five hydrologic regions were developed for the area of California outside of the desert region. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area and mean annual precipitation for four of the five regions. In one region, the Sierra Nevada region, the final equations are functions of drainage area, mean basin elevation, and mean annual precipitation. Average standard errors of prediction for the regression equations in all five regions range from 42.7 to 161.9 percent. For the desert region of California, an analysis of 33 streamgages was used to develop regional estimates of all three parameters (mean, standard deviation, and skew) of the log-Pearson Type III distribution. The regional estimates were then used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged basins. The final regional regression equations are functions of drainage area. Average standard errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 214.2 to 856.2 percent. Annual peak-flow data through water year 2006 were analyzed for eight streamgages in California having 10 or more years of data considered to be affected by urbanization. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the urban streamgages by fitting a Pearson Type III distribution to logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage. Regression analysis could not be used to develop flood-frequency estimation equations for urban streams because of the limited number of sites. Flood-frequency estimates for the eight urban sites were graphically compared to flood-frequency estimates for 630 non-urban sites. The regression equations developed from this study will be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) StreamStats program. The StreamStats program is a Web-based application that provides streamflow statistics and basin characteristics for USGS streamgages and ungaged sites of interest. StreamStats can also compute basin characteristics and provide estimates of streamflow statistics for ungaged sites when users select the location of a site along any stream in California.

Flood Frequency Analysis For Partial Duration Series In Ganjiang River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

zhangli, Sun; xiufang, Zhu; yaozhong, Pan

2016-04-01

Accurate estimation of flood frequency is key to effective, nationwide flood damage abatement programs. The partial duration series (PDS) method is widely used in hydrologic studies because it considers all events above a certain threshold level as compared to the annual maximum series (AMS) method, which considers only the annual maximum value. However, the PDS has a drawback in that it is difficult to define the thresholds and maintain an independent and identical distribution of the partial duration time series; this drawback is discussed in this paper. The Ganjiang River is the seventh largest tributary of the Yangtze River, the longest river in China. The Ganjiang River covers a drainage area of 81,258 km2 at the Wanzhou hydrologic station as the basin outlet. In this work, 56 years of daily flow data (1954-2009) from the Wanzhou station were used to analyze flood frequency, and the Pearson-III model was employed as the hydrologic probability distribution. Generally, three tasks were accomplished: (1) the threshold of PDS by percentile rank of daily runoff was obtained; (2) trend analysis of the flow series was conducted using PDS; and (3) flood frequency analysis was conducted for partial duration flow series. The results showed a slight upward trend of the annual runoff in the Ganjiang River basin. The maximum flow with a 0.01 exceedance probability (corresponding to a 100-year flood peak under stationary conditions) was 20,000 m3/s, while that with a 0.1 exceedance probability was 15,000 m3/s. These results will serve as a guide to hydrological engineering planning, design, and management for policymakers and decision makers associated with hydrology.

Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

Reducing uncertainty with flood frequency analysis: The contribution of paleoflood and historical flood information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Daryl; Thompson, Chris; Croke, Jacky; Sharma, Ashneel; Macklin, Mark

2017-03-01

Using a combination of stream gauge, historical, and paleoflood records to extend extreme flood records has proven to be useful in improving flood frequency analysis (FFA). The approach has typically been applied in localities with long historical records and/or suitable river settings for paleoflood reconstruction from slack-water deposits (SWDs). However, many regions around the world have neither extensive historical information nor bedrock gorges suitable for SWDs preservation and paleoflood reconstruction. This study from subtropical Australia demonstrates that confined, semialluvial channels such as macrochannels provide relatively stable boundaries over the 1000-2000 year time period and the preserved SWDs enabled paleoflood reconstruction and their incorporation into FFA. FFA for three sites in subtropical Australia with the integration of historical and paleoflood data using Bayesian Inference methods showed a significant reduction in uncertainty associated with the estimated discharge of a flood quantile. Uncertainty associated with estimated discharge for the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood is reduced by more than 50%. In addition, sensitivity analysis of possible within-channel boundary changes shows that FFA is not significantly affected by any associated changes in channel capacity. Therefore, a greater range of channel types may be used for reliable paleoflood reconstruction by evaluating the stability of inset alluvial units, thereby increasing the quantity of temporal data available for FFA. The reduction in uncertainty, particularly in the prediction of the ≤1% AEP design flood, will improve flood risk planning and management in regions with limited temporal flood data.

Bayesian Non-Stationary Flood Frequency Estimation at Ungauged Basins Using Climate Information and a Scaling Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, C. H.; Lall, U.

2010-12-01

Flood frequency statistical analysis most often relies on stationary assumptions, where distribution moments (e.g. mean, standard deviation) and associated flood quantiles do not change over time. In this sense, one expects that flood magnitudes and their frequency of occurrence will remain constant as observed in the historical information. However, evidence of inter-annual and decadal climate variability and anthropogenic change as well as an apparent increase in the number and magnitude of flood events across the globe have made the stationary assumption questionable. Here, we show how to estimate flood quantiles (e.g. 100-year flood) at ungauged basins without needing to consider stationarity. A statistical model based on the well known flow-area scaling law is proposed to estimate flood flows at ungauged basins. The slope and intercept scaling law coefficients are assumed time varying and a hierarchical Bayesian model is used to include climate information and reduce parameter uncertainties. Cross-validated results from 34 streamflow gauges located in a nested Basin in Brazil show that the proposed model is able to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged basins with remarkable skills compared with data based estimates using the full record. The model as developed in this work is also able to simulate sequences of flood flows considering global climate changes provided an appropriate climate index developed from the General Circulation Model is used as a predictor. The time varying flood frequency estimates can be used for pricing insurance models, and in a forecast mode for preparations for flooding, and finally, for timing infrastructure investments and location. Non-stationary 95% interval estimation for the 100-year Flood (shaded gray region) and 95% interval for the 100-year flood estimated from data (horizontal dashed and solid lines). The average distribution of the 100-year flood is shown in green in the right side.

Flood-frequency characteristics of Wisconsin streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Peppler, Marie C.; Danz, Mari E.; Hubbard, Laura E.

2017-05-22

Flood-frequency characteristics for 360 gaged sites on unregulated rural streams in Wisconsin are presented for percent annual exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.2 to 50 using a statewide skewness map developed for this report. Equations of the relations between flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics were developed by multiple-regression analyses. Flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites on unregulated, rural streams can be estimated by use of the equations presented in this report. The State was divided into eight areas of similar physiographic characteristics. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, main-channel slope, and several land-use variables. The standard error of prediction for the equation for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood ranges from 56 to 70 percent for Wisconsin Streams; these values are larger than results presented in previous reports. The increase in the standard error of prediction is likely due to increased variability of the annual-peak discharges, resulting in increased variability in the magnitude of flood peaks at higher frequencies. For each of the unregulated rural streamflow-gaging stations, a weighted estimate based on the at-site log Pearson type III analysis and the multiple regression results was determined. The weighted estimate generally has a lower uncertainty than either the Log Pearson type III or multiple regression estimates. For regulated streams, a graphical method for estimating flood-frequency characteristics was developed from the relations of discharge and drainage area for selected annual exceedance probabilities. Graphs for the major regulated streams in Wisconsin are presented in the report.

Public Policy and Private Enterprise in the Development of Flood Plains: A Laboratory Exercise in Physical Geography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nunnally, Nelson R.; And Others

1974-01-01

This activity is designed to introduce college students to the concept of floods as natural hazards, to flood frequency analysis, to hazard adjustment, and to the mechanics of public policy formulation through a six hour laboratory exercise, culminating in a simulation game. (JH)

Nonstationary frequency analysis for the trivariate flood series of the Weihe River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Cong; Xiong, Lihua

2016-04-01

Some intensive human activities such as water-soil conservation can significantly alter the natural hydrological processes of rivers. In this study, the effect of the water-soil conservation on the trivariate flood series from the Weihe River located in the Northwest China is investigated. The annual maxima daily discharge, annual maxima 3-day flood volume and annual maxima 5-day flood volume are chosen as the study data and used to compose the trivariate flood series. The nonstationarities in both the individual univariate flood series and the corresponding antecedent precipitation series generating the flood events are examined by the Mann-Kendall trend test. It is found that all individual univariate flood series present significant decreasing trend, while the antecedent precipitation series can be treated as stationary. It indicates that the increase of the water-soil conservation land area has altered the rainfall-runoff relationship of the Weihe basin, and induced the nonstationarities in the three individual univariate flood series. The time-varying moments model based on the Pearson type III distribution is applied to capture the nonstationarities in the flood frequency distribution with the water-soil conservation land area introduced as the explanatory variable of the flood distribution parameters. Based on the analysis for each individual univariate flood series, the dependence structure among the three univariate flood series are investigated by the time-varying copula model also with the water-soil conservation land area as the explanatory variable of copula parameters. The results indicate that the dependence among the trivariate flood series is enhanced by the increase of water-soil conservation land area.

Extreme Mississippi River Floods in the Late Holocene: Reconstructions and Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, S. E.; Giosan, L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Dee, S.

2016-12-01

Extreme flooding of the Mississippi River is costly in both economic and social terms. Despite ambitious engineering projects conceived in the early 20th century to mitigate damage from extreme floods, economic losses due to flooding have increased over recent years. Forecasting extreme flood occurrence over seasonal or longer time-scales remains a major challenge - especially in light of shifts in hydroclimatic conditions expected in response to continued greenhouse forcing. Here, we present findings from a series of paleoflood records that span the late Holocene derived from laminated sediments deposited in abandoned channels of the Mississippi River. These sedimentary archives record individual overbank floods as unique events beds with upward fining that we identify using grain-size analysis, bulk geochemistry, and radiography. We use sedimentological characteristics to reconstruct flood magnitude by calibrating our records against instrumental streamflow data from nearby gauging stations. We also use the Last Millennium Experiments of the Community Earth System Model (CESM-LME) and historical reanalysis data to examine the state of climate system around river discharge extremes. Our paleo-flood records exhibit strong non-stationarities in flood frequency and magnitude that are associated with fluctuations in the frequency of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), because the warm ENSO phase is associated with increased surface water storage of the lower Mississippi basin that leads to enhanced runoff delivery to the main channel. We also show that the early 20th century was a period of anomalously high flood frequency and magnitude due to the combined effects of river engineering and natural climate variability. Our findings imply that flood risk along the lower Mississippi River is tightly coupled to the frequency of ENSO, highlighting the need for robust projections of ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

Regional L-Moment-Based Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upper Vistula River Basin, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, A.; Żelazny, M.; Kohnová, S.; Łyp, M.; Banasik, K.

2017-02-01

The Upper Vistula River basin was divided into pooling groups with similar dimensionless frequency distributions of annual maximum river discharge. The cluster analysis and the Hosking and Wallis (HW) L-moment-based method were used to divide the set of 52 mid-sized catchments into disjoint clusters with similar morphometric, land use, and rainfall variables, and to test the homogeneity within clusters. Finally, three and four pooling groups were obtained alternatively. Two methods for identification of the regional distribution function were used, the HW method and the method of Kjeldsen and Prosdocimi based on a bivariate extension of the HW measure. Subsequently, the flood quantile estimates were calculated using the index flood method. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the generalised least squares (GLS) regression techniques were used to relate the index flood to catchment characteristics. Predictive performance of the regression scheme for the southern part of the Upper Vistula River basin was improved by using GLS instead of OLS. The results of the study can be recommended for the estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites, in flood risk mapping applications, and in engineering hydrology to help design flood protection structures.

Quantification of Uncertainty in the Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasiapillai Sudalaimuthu, K.; He, J.; Swami, D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is usually carried out for planning and designing of water resources and hydraulic structures. Owing to the existence of variability in sample representation, selection of distribution and estimation of distribution parameters, the estimation of flood quantile has been always uncertain. Hence, suitable approaches must be developed to quantify the uncertainty in the form of prediction interval as an alternate to deterministic approach. The developed framework in the present study to include uncertainty in the FFA discusses a multi-objective optimization approach to construct the prediction interval using ensemble of flood quantile. Through this approach, an optimal variability of distribution parameters is identified to carry out FFA. To demonstrate the proposed approach, annual maximum flow data from two gauge stations (Bow river at Calgary and Banff, Canada) are used. The major focus of the present study was to evaluate the changes in magnitude of flood quantiles due to the recent extreme flood event occurred during the year 2013. In addition, the efficacy of the proposed method was further verified using standard bootstrap based sampling approaches and found that the proposed method is reliable in modeling extreme floods as compared to the bootstrap methods.

Wall pressure measurements of flooding in vertical countercurrent annular air–water flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Choutapalli, I., Vierow, K.

2010-01-01

An experimental study of flooding in countercurrent air-water annular flow in a large diameter vertical tube using wall pressure measurements is described in this paper. Axial pressure profiles along the length of the test section were measured up to and after flooding using fast response pressure transducers for three representative liquid flow rates representing a wide range of liquid Reynolds numbers (ReL = 4Γ/μ; Γ is the liquid mass flow rate per unit perimeter; μ is the dynamic viscosity) from 3341 to 19,048. The results show that flooding in large diameter tubes cannot be initiated near the air outlet andmore » is only initiated near the air inlet. Fourier analysis of the wall pressure measurements shows that up to the point of flooding, there is no dominant wave frequency but rather a band of frequencies encompassing both the low frequency and the broad band that are responsible for flooding. The data indicates that flooding in large diameter vertical tubes may be caused by the constructive superposition of a plurality of waves rather than the action of a single large-amplitude wave.« less

Re-assessing the flood risk in Scotland.

PubMed

Black, Andrew R; Burns, John C

2002-07-22

This paper presents a review of changes in flood risk estimation on Scottish rivers resulting from re-analysis of flood records or from the application of new methods. The review arises at a time when flood damages have received recent prominence through the occurrence of a number of extreme floods in Scotland, and when the possible impacts of climate change on flood risk are receiving considerable attention. An analysis of the nine longest available peaks-over-threshold (POT) flood series for Scottish rivers reveals that, for thresholds yielding two events per year on average, annual POT frequencies on western rivers have increased in the 1980s/1990s to maximum recorded values, while in the east, values were highest in the 1950s/1960s. These results support the results of flood modelling work based on rainfall and temperature records from the 1870s, which indicate that, in western catchments, annual POT frequencies in the 1980s/1990s are unprecedented. No general trends in flood magnitude series were found, but an unexpected cluster of extreme floods is identified as having occurred since 1988, resulting in eight of Scotland's 16 largest gauged rivers producing their maximum recorded flows since then. These shifts are related to recent increases in the dominance of westerly airflows, share similarities with the results of climate change modelling, and collectively point to increases in flood risk in many parts of Scotland. The paper also reviews advances in flood risk estimation arising from the publication of the UK Flood Estimation Handbook, developments in the collection and use of historic flood estimation and the production of maps of 100-year flood areal extent. Finally the challenges in flood risk estimation posed by climate change are examined, particularly in relation to the assumption of stationarity.

Flood Frequency Analysis With Historical and Paleoflood Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stedinger, Jery R.; Cohn, Timothy A.

1986-05-01

An investigation is made of flood quantile estimators which can employ "historical" and paleoflood information in flood frequency analyses. Two categories of historical information are considered: "censored" data, where the magnitudes of historical flood peaks are known; and "binomial" data, where only threshold exceedance information is available. A Monte Carlo study employing the two-parameter lognormal distribution shows that maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) can extract the equivalent of an additional 10-30 years of gage record from a 50-year period of historical observation. The MLE routines are shown to be substantially better than an adjusted-moment estimator similar to the one recommended in Bulletin 17B of the United States Water Resources Council Hydrology Committee (1982). The MLE methods performed well even when floods were drawn from other than the assumed lognormal distribution.

A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London.

PubMed

Jenkins, Katie; Hall, Jim; Glenis, Vassilis; Kilsby, Chris

2018-06-01

Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Demand analysis of flood insurance by using logistic regression model and genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidi, P.; Mamat, M. B.; Sukono; Supian, S.; Putra, A. S.

2018-03-01

Citarum River floods in the area of South Bandung Indonesia, often resulting damage to some buildings belonging to the people living in the vicinity. One effort to alleviate the risk of building damage is to have flood insurance. The main obstacle is not all people in the Citarum basin decide to buy flood insurance. In this paper, we intend to analyse the decision to buy flood insurance. It is assumed that there are eight variables that influence the decision of purchasing flood assurance, include: income level, education level, house distance with river, building election with road, flood frequency experience, flood prediction, perception on insurance company, and perception towards government effort in handling flood. The analysis was done by using logistic regression model, and to estimate model parameters, it is done with genetic algorithm. The results of the analysis shows that eight variables analysed significantly influence the demand of flood insurance. These results are expected to be considered for insurance companies, to influence the decision of the community to be willing to buy flood insurance.

Assessing inundation hazards to nuclear powerplant sites using geologically extended histories of riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connor, Jim; Atwater, Brian F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Cronin, Thomas M.; Keith, Mackenzie K.; Smith, Christopher G.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

2014-01-01

A screening of the 104 nuclear powerplants in the United States licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (at 64 sites) indicates several sites for which paleoflood studies likely would provide additional flood-frequency information. Two sites—Duane Arnold, Iowa, on the Cedar River; and David-Besse, Ohio, on the Toussaint River—have geologic conditions suitable for creating and preserving stratigraphic records of flooding and few upstream dams that may complicate flood-frequency analysis. One site—Crystal River, Florida1, on the Withlacoochee River and only 4 kilometers from the coast—has high potential as a candidate for assessing riverine and marine inundation hazards. Several sites on the Mississippi River have high geologic potential, but upstream dams almost certainly now regulate peak flows. Nevertheless, studies on the Mississippi River to evaluate long-term flood frequency may provide results applicable to a wide spectrum of regional hazard issues. Several sites in the southeastern United States have high geologic potential, and studies at these sites also may be helpful in evaluating hazards from outburst floods from landslide dams (river blockages formed by mass movements), which may be a regional hazard. For all these sites, closer investigation and field reconnaissance would be needed to confirm suitable deposits and settings for a complete paleoflood analysis. Similar screenings may help identify high-potential sites for geologic investigations of tsunami and storm-surge hazards.

Atmospheric circulation patterns associated to the variability of River Ammer floods: evidence from observed and proxy data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rimbu, N.; Czymzik, M.; Ionita, M.; Lohmann, G.; Brauer, A.

2015-09-01

The relationship between the frequency of River Ammer floods (southern Germany) and atmospheric circulation variability is investigated based on observational Ammer discharge data back to 1926 and a flood layer time series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee for the pre-instrumental period back to 1766. A composite analysis reveals that, at synoptic time scales, observed River Ammer floods are associated with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean towards the Ammer region, a pronounced trough over Western Europe as well as enhanced potential vorticity at upper levels. We argue that this synoptic scale configuration can trigger heavy precipitation and floods in the Ammer region. Interannual to multidecadal increases in flood frequency as recorded in the instrumental discharge record are associated to a wave-train pattern extending from the North Atlantic to western Asia with a prominent negative center over western Europe. A similar atmospheric circulation pattern is associated to increases in flood layer frequency in the Lake Ammersee sediment record during the pre-instrumental period. We argue that the complete flood layer time-series from Lake Ammersee sediments covering the last 5500 years, contains information about atmospheric circulation variability on inter-annual to millennial time-scales.

High Risk Flash Flood Rainstorm Mapping Based on Regional L-moments Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Hui; Liao, Yifan; Lin, Bingzhang

2017-04-01

Difficulties and complexities in elaborating flash flood early-warning and forecasting system prompt hydrologists to develop some techniques to substantially reduce the disastrous outcome of a flash flood in advance. An ideal to specify those areas that are subject at high risk to flash flood in terms of rainfall intensity in a relatively large region is proposed in this paper. It is accomplished through design of the High Risk Flash Flood Rainstorm Area (HRFFRA) based on statistical analysis of historical rainfall data, synoptic analysis of prevailing storm rainfalls as well as the field survey of historical flash flood events in the region. A HRFFRA is defined as the area potentially under hitting by higher intense-precipitation for a given duration with certain return period that may cause a flash flood disaster in the area. This paper has presented in detail the development of the HRFFRA through the application of the end-to-end Regional L-moments Approach (RLMA) to precipitation frequency analysis in combination with the technique of spatial interpolation in Jiangxi Province, South China Mainland. Among others, the concept of hydrometeorologically homogenous region, the precision of frequency analysis in terms of parameter estimation, the accuracy of quantiles in terms of uncertainties and the consistency adjustments of quantiles over durations and space, etc., have been addressed. At the end of this paper, the mapping of the HRFFRA and an internet-based visualized user-friendly data-server of the HRFFRA are also introduced. Key words: HRFFRA; Flash Flood; RLMA; rainfall intensity; Hydrometeorological homogenous region.

Site-specific estimation of peak-streamflow frequency using generalized least-squares regression for natural basins in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, R.M.

1999-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, has developed a computer program to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged sites in natural basins in Texas. Peak-streamflow frequency refers to the peak streamflows for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. Peak-streamflow frequency estimates are needed by planners, managers, and design engineers for flood-plain management; for objective assessment of flood risk; for cost-effective design of roads and bridges; and also for the desin of culverts, dams, levees, and other flood-control structures. The program estimates peak-streamflow frequency using a site-specific approach and a multivariate generalized least-squares linear regression. A site-specific approach differs from a traditional regional regression approach by developing unique equations to estimate peak-streamflow frequency specifically for the ungaged site. The stations included in the regression are selected using an informal cluster analysis that compares the basin characteristics of the ungaged site to the basin characteristics of all the stations in the data base. The program provides several choices for selecting the stations. Selecting the stations using cluster analysis ensures that the stations included in the regression will have the most pertinent information about flooding characteristics of the ungaged site and therefore provide the basis for potentially improved peak-streamflow frequency estimation. An evaluation of the site-specific approach in estimating peak-streamflow frequency for gaged sites indicates that the site-specific approach is at least as accurate as a traditional regional regression approach.

A framework for multivariate data-based at-site flood frequency analysis: Essentiality of the conjugal application of parametric and nonparametric approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vittal, H.; Singh, Jitendra; Kumar, Pankaj; Karmakar, Subhankar

2015-06-01

In watershed management, flood frequency analysis (FFA) is performed to quantify the risk of flooding at different spatial locations and also to provide guidelines for determining the design periods of flood control structures. The traditional FFA was extensively performed by considering univariate scenario for both at-site and regional estimation of return periods. However, due to inherent mutual dependence of the flood variables or characteristics [i.e., peak flow (P), flood volume (V) and flood duration (D), which are random in nature], analysis has been further extended to multivariate scenario, with some restrictive assumptions. To overcome the assumption of same family of marginal density function for all flood variables, the concept of copula has been introduced. Although, the advancement from univariate to multivariate analyses drew formidable attention to the FFA research community, the basic limitation was that the analyses were performed with the implementation of only parametric family of distributions. The aim of the current study is to emphasize the importance of nonparametric approaches in the field of multivariate FFA; however, the nonparametric distribution may not always be a good-fit and capable of replacing well-implemented multivariate parametric and multivariate copula-based applications. Nevertheless, the potential of obtaining best-fit using nonparametric distributions might be improved because such distributions reproduce the sample's characteristics, resulting in more accurate estimations of the multivariate return period. Hence, the current study shows the importance of conjugating multivariate nonparametric approach with multivariate parametric and copula-based approaches, thereby results in a comprehensive framework for complete at-site FFA. Although the proposed framework is designed for at-site FFA, this approach can also be applied to regional FFA because regional estimations ideally include at-site estimations. The framework is based on the following steps: (i) comprehensive trend analysis to assess nonstationarity in the observed data; (ii) selection of the best-fit univariate marginal distribution with a comprehensive set of parametric and nonparametric distributions for the flood variables; (iii) multivariate frequency analyses with parametric, copula-based and nonparametric approaches; and (iv) estimation of joint and various conditional return periods. The proposed framework for frequency analysis is demonstrated using 110 years of observed data from Allegheny River at Salamanca, New York, USA. The results show that for both univariate and multivariate cases, the nonparametric Gaussian kernel provides the best estimate. Further, we perform FFA for twenty major rivers over continental USA, which shows for seven rivers, all the flood variables followed nonparametric Gaussian kernel; whereas for other rivers, parametric distributions provide the best-fit either for one or two flood variables. Thus the summary of results shows that the nonparametric method cannot substitute the parametric and copula-based approaches, but should be considered during any at-site FFA to provide the broadest choices for best estimation of the flood return periods.

Statistical Development of Flood Frequency and Magnitude Equations for the Cosumnes and Mokelumne River Drainage Basins, Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, R. G.; Meyer, R. W.; Cornwell, K.

2003-12-01

In-basin statistical relations allow for development of regional flood frequency and magnitude equations in the Cosumnes River and Mokelumne River drainage basins. Current equations were derived from data collected through 1975, and do not reflect newer data with some significant flooding. Physical basin characteristics (area, mean basin elevation, slope of longest reach, and mean annual precipitation) were correlated against predicted flood discharges for each of the 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500-year recurrence intervals in a multivariate analysis. Predicted maximum instantaneous flood discharges were determined using the PEAKFQ program with default settings, for 24 stream gages within the study area presumed not affected by flow management practices. For numerical comparisons, GIS-based methods using Spatial Analyst and the Arc Hydro Tools extension were applied to derive physical basin characteristics as predictor variables from a 30m digital elevation model (DEM) and a mean annual precipitation raster (PRISM). In a bivariate analysis, examination of Pearson correlation coefficients, F-statistic, and t & p thresholds show good correlation between area and flood discharges. Similar analyses show poor correlation for mean basin elevation, slope and precipitation, with flood discharge. Bivariate analysis suggests slope may not be an appropriate predictor term for use in the multivariate analysis. Precipitation and elevation correlate very well, demonstrating possible orographic effects. From the multivariate analysis, less than 6% of the variability in the correlation is not explained for flood recurrences up to 25 years. Longer term predictions up to 500 years accrue greater uncertainty with as much as 15% of the variability in the correlation left unexplained.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodge, Scott A.; Tasker, Gary D.

1995-01-01

Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams in Arkansas. Regression analyses were developed in which a stream's physical and flood characteristics were related. Four sets of regional regression equations were derived to predict peak discharges with selected recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years on streams draining less than 7,770 square kilometers. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods. The region of influence method is included in this report. This method is still being improved and is to be considered only as a second alternative to the standard method of producing regional regression equations. This method estimates unique regression equations for each recurrence interval for each ungaged site. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean annual precipitation, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin and climatic characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods for this method. Certain recommendations on the use of this method are provided. A method is described for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams for urban areas in Arkansas. The method is from a nationwide U.S. Geeological Survey flood frequency report which uses urban basin characteristics combined with rural discharges to estimate urban discharges. Annual peak discharges from 204 gaging stations, with drainage areas less than 7,770 square kilometers and at least 10 years of unregulated record, were used in the analysis. These data provide the basis for this analysis and are published in the Appendix of this report as supplemental data. Large rivers such as the Red, Arkansas, White, Black, St. Francis, Mississippi, and Ouachita Rivers have floodflow characteristics that differ from those of smaller tributary streams and were treated individually. Regional regression equations are not applicable to these large rivers. The magnitude and frequency of floods along these rivers are based on specific station data. This section is provided in the Appendix and has not been updated since the last Arkansas flood frequency report (1987b), but is included at the request of the cooperator.

Flood susceptibility analysis through remote sensing, GIS and frequency ratio model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Sailesh; Pal, Dilip Kumar; Palsamanta, Babita

2018-05-01

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is saddled with frequent natural disasters like earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, drought, flood etc. Flood, as a hydrological disaster to humankind's niche brings about a powerful and often sudden, pernicious change in the surface distribution of water on land, while the benevolence of flood manifests in restoring the health of the thalweg from excessive siltation by redistributing the fertile sediments on the riverine floodplains. In respect to social, economic and environmental perspective, flood is one of the most devastating disasters in PNG. This research was conducted to investigate the usefulness of remote sensing, geographic information system and the frequency ratio (FR) for flood susceptibility mapping. FR model was used to handle different independent variables via weighted-based bivariate probability values to generate a plausible flood susceptibility map. This study was conducted in the Markham riverine precinct under Morobe province in PNG. A historical flood inventory database of PNG resource information system (PNGRIS) was used to generate 143 flood locations based on "create fishnet" analysis. 100 (70%) flood sample locations were selected randomly for model building. Ten independent variables, namely land use/land cover, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, surface runoff, landform, lithology, distance from the main river, soil texture and soil drainage were used into the FR model for flood vulnerability analysis. Finally, the database was developed for areas vulnerable to flood. The result demonstrated a span of FR values ranging from 2.66 (least flood prone) to 19.02 (most flood prone) for the study area. The developed database was reclassified into five (5) flood vulnerability zones segmenting on the FR values, namely very low (less that 5.0), low (5.0-7.5), moderate (7.5-10.0), high (10.0-12.5) and very high susceptibility (more than 12.5). The result indicated that about 19.4% land area as `very high' and 35.8% as `high' flood vulnerable class. The FR model output was validated with remaining 43 (30%) flood points, where 42 points were marked as correct predictions which evinced an accuracy of 97.7% in prediction. A total of 137292 people are living in those vulnerable zones. The flood susceptibility analysis using this model will be very useful and also an efficient tool to the local government administrators, researchers and planners for devising flood mitigation plans.

Floodflow characteristics at proposed bridge site on Fishkill Creek, Fishkill, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zembrzuski, Thomas J.; Dunn, Bernard

1976-01-01

An evaluation of floodflow characteristics of Fishkill Creek at the proposed bridge site at Fishkill, N.Y., was made for the 50- and 100-year floods. The flood-frequency analysis revealed that the magnitude of the 50- and 100-year floods are 8,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) and 10,000 cfs, respectively. The normal water-surface elevation at the approach cross section was determined by the slope-conveyance method to be 209.8 feet during a 50-year flood and 210.8 feet during a 100-year flood. Also included is an analysis of the effect of the existing bridge and of two alternative bridge designs on the profiles of floods having recurrence intervals of 50 and 100 years. (Woodard-USGS)

Magnitude and Frequency of Floods on Nontidal Streams in Delaware

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Dillow, Jonathan J.A.

2006-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of annual peak flows are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. This report, done in cooperation with the Delaware Department of Transportation (DelDOT) and the Delaware Geological Survey (DGS), presents methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on nontidal streams in Delaware at locations where streamgaging stations monitor streamflow continuously and at ungaged sites. Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude of floods for return frequencies ranging from 2 through 500 years. These methods are applicable to watersheds exhibiting a full range of urban development conditions. The report also describes StreamStats, a web application that makes it easy to obtain flood-frequency estimates for user-selected locations on Delaware streams. Flood-frequency estimates for ungaged sites are obtained through a process known as regionalization, using statistical regression analysis, where information determined for a group of streamgaging stations within a region forms the basis for estimates for ungaged sites within the region. One hundred and sixteen streamgaging stations in and near Delaware with at least 10 years of non-regulated annual peak-flow data available were used in the regional analysis. Estimates for gaged sites are obtained by combining the station peak-flow statistics (mean, standard deviation, and skew) and peak-flow estimates with regional estimates of skew and flood-frequency magnitudes. Example flood-frequency estimate calculations using the methods presented in the report are given for: (1) ungaged sites, (2) gaged locations, (3) sites upstream or downstream from a gaged location, and (4) sites between gaged locations. Regional regression equations applicable to ungaged sites in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain Physiographic Provinces of Delaware are presented. The equations incorporate drainage area, forest cover, impervious area, basin storage, housing density, soil type A, and mean basin slope as explanatory variables, and have average standard errors of prediction ranging from 28 to 72 percent. Additional regression equations that incorporate drainage area and housing density as explanatory variables are presented for use in defining the effects of urbanization on peak-flow estimates throughout Delaware for the 2-year through 500-year recurrence intervals, along with suggestions for their appropriate use in predicting development-affected peak flows. Additional topics associated with the analyses performed during the study are also discussed, including: (1) the availability and description of more than 30 basin and climatic characteristics considered during the development of the regional regression equations; (2) the treatment of increasing trends in the annual peak-flow series identified at 18 gaged sites, with respect to their relations with maximum 24-hour precipitation and housing density, and their use in the regional analysis; (3) calculation of the 90-percent confidence interval associated with peak-flow estimates from the regional regression equations; and (4) a comparison of flood-frequency estimates at gages used in a previous study, highlighting the effects of various improved analytical techniques.

Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

2016-12-01

Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the relevance of accounting for the full range of flood events and their relation to both potential damages and benefits in risk assessments. Management measures may thus be designed to reflect local contexts and support benefits of natural hydrologic processes, while minimizing flood damage.

Climate, orography and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persiano, Simone; Castellarin, Attilio; Salinas, Jose Luis; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

2016-05-01

The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed reference procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national flood frequency models. Our study focuses on Triveneto, a broad geographical region in North-eastern Italy. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which considered Triveneto as a single homogeneous region and developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges that were collected up to the 1980s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for 76 catchments located in Triveneto. All 76 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The objective of our study is threefold: (1) to inspect climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime; (2) to verify the possible presence of changes in flood frequency regime by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3) to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI). Our study leads to the following conclusions: (1) climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2) a single year characterized by extreme floods can have a remarkable influence on regional flood frequency models and analyses for detecting possible changes in flood frequency regime; (3) no significant change was detected in the flood frequency regime, yet an update of the existing reference procedure for design flood estimation is highly recommended and we propose the RoI approach for properly representing climate and scale controls on flood frequency in Triveneto, which cannot be regarded as a single homogeneous region.

Probabilistic modelling of flood events using the entropy copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fan; Zheng, Qian

2016-11-01

The estimation of flood frequency is vital for the flood control strategies and hydraulic structure design. Generating synthetic flood events according to statistical properties of observations is one of plausible methods to analyze the flood frequency. Due to the statistical dependence among the flood event variables (i.e. the flood peak, volume and duration), a multidimensional joint probability estimation is required. Recently, the copula method is widely used for multivariable dependent structure construction, however, the copula family should be chosen before application and the choice process is sometimes rather subjective. The entropy copula, a new copula family, employed in this research proposed a way to avoid the relatively subjective process by combining the theories of copula and entropy. The analysis shows the effectiveness of the entropy copula for probabilistic modelling the flood events of two hydrological gauges, and a comparison of accuracy with the popular copulas was made. The Gibbs sampling technique was applied for trivariate flood events simulation in order to mitigate the calculation difficulties of extending to three dimension directly. The simulation results indicate that the entropy copula is a simple and effective copula family for trivariate flood simulation.

Physically-based extreme flood frequency with stochastic storm transposition and paleoflood data on large watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, John F.; Julien, Pierre Y.; Velleux, Mark L.

2014-03-01

Traditionally, deterministic flood procedures such as the Probable Maximum Flood have been used for critical infrastructure design. Some Federal agencies now use hydrologic risk analysis to assess potential impacts of extreme events on existing structures such as large dams. Extreme flood hazard estimates and distributions are needed for these efforts, with very low annual exceedance probabilities (⩽10-4) (return periods >10,000 years). An integrated data-modeling hydrologic hazard framework for physically-based extreme flood hazard estimation is presented. Key elements include: (1) a physically-based runoff model (TREX) coupled with a stochastic storm transposition technique; (2) hydrometeorological information from radar and an extreme storm catalog; and (3) streamflow and paleoflood data for independently testing and refining runoff model predictions at internal locations. This new approach requires full integration of collaborative work in hydrometeorology, flood hydrology and paleoflood hydrology. An application on the 12,000 km2 Arkansas River watershed in Colorado demonstrates that the size and location of extreme storms are critical factors in the analysis of basin-average rainfall frequency and flood peak distributions. Runoff model results are substantially improved by the availability and use of paleoflood nonexceedance data spanning the past 1000 years at critical watershed locations.

A geographic information system tool to solve regression equations and estimate flow-frequency characteristics of Vermont Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.; Tasker, Gary D.; Johnston, Craig M.

2003-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of streamflow are needed to safely and economically design bridges, culverts, and other structures in or near streams. These estimates also are used for managing floodplains, identifying flood-hazard areas, and establishing flood-insurance rates, but may be required at ungaged sites where no observed flood data are available for streamflow-frequency analysis. This report describes equations for estimating flow-frequency characteristics at ungaged, unregulated streams in Vermont. In the past, regression equations developed to estimate streamflow statistics required users to spend hours manually measuring basin characteristics for the stream site of interest. This report also describes the accompanying customized geographic information system (GIS) tool that automates the measurement of basin characteristics and calculation of corresponding flow statistics. The tool includes software that computes the accuracy of the results and adjustments for expected probability and for streamflow data of a nearby stream-gaging station that is either upstream or downstream and within 50 percent of the drainage area of the site where the flow-frequency characteristics are being estimated. The custom GIS can be linked to the National Flood Frequency program, adding the ability to plot peak-flow-frequency curves and synthetic hydrographs and to compute adjustments for urbanization.

Large-scale derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

There is an increasing need for spatially consistent flood risk assessments at the regional scale (several 100.000 km2), in particular in the insurance industry and for national risk reduction strategies. However, most large-scale flood risk assessments are composed of smaller-scale assessments and show spatial inconsistencies. To overcome this deficit, a large-scale flood model composed of a weather generator and catchments models was developed reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The weather generator is a multisite and multivariate stochastic model capable of generating synthetic meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, etc.) at daily resolution for the regional scale. These fields respect the observed autocorrelation, spatial correlation and co-variance between the variables. They are used as input into catchment models. A long-term simulation of this combined system enables to derive very long discharge series at many catchment locations serving as a basic for spatially consistent flood risk estimates at the regional scale. This combined model was set up and validated for major river catchments in Germany. The weather generator was trained by 53-year observation data at 528 stations covering not only the complete Germany but also parts of France, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Australia with the aggregated spatial scale of 443,931 km2. 10.000 years of daily meteorological fields for the study area were generated. Likewise, rainfall-runoff simulations with SWIM were performed for the entire Elbe, Rhine, Weser, Donau and Ems catchments. The validation results illustrate a good performance of the combined system, as the simulated flood magnitudes and frequencies agree well with the observed flood data. Based on continuous simulation this model chain is then used to estimate flood quantiles for the whole Germany including upstream headwater catchments in neighbouring countries. This continuous large scale approach overcomes the several drawbacks reported in traditional approaches for the derived flood frequency analysis and therefore is recommended for large scale flood risk case studies.

Classification of mechanisms, climatic context, areal scaling, and synchronization of floods: the hydroclimatology of floods in the Upper Paraná River basin, Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Lall, Upmanu

2017-12-01

Floods are the main natural disaster in Brazil, causing substantial economic damage and loss of life. Studies suggest that some extreme floods result from a causal climate chain. Exceptional rain and floods are determined by large-scale anomalies and persistent patterns in the atmospheric and oceanic circulations, which influence the magnitude, extent, and duration of these extremes. Moreover, floods can result from different generating mechanisms. These factors contradict the assumptions of homogeneity, and often stationarity, in flood frequency analysis. Here we outline a methodological framework based on clustering using self-organizing maps (SOMs) that allows the linkage of large-scale processes to local-scale observations. The methodology is applied to flood data from several sites in the flood-prone Upper Paraná River basin (UPRB) in southern Brazil. The SOM clustering approach is employed to classify the 6-day rainfall field over the UPRB into four categories, which are then used to classify floods into four types based on the spatiotemporal dynamics of the rainfall field prior to the observed flood events. An analysis of the vertically integrated moisture fluxes, vorticity, and high-level atmospheric circulation revealed that these four clusters are related to known tropical and extratropical processes, including the South American low-level jet (SALLJ); extratropical cyclones; and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Persistent anomalies in the sea surface temperature fields in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are also found to be associated with these processes. Floods associated with each cluster present different patterns in terms of frequency, magnitude, spatial variability, scaling, and synchronization of events across the sites and subbasins. These insights suggest new directions for flood risk assessment, forecasting, and management.

Designing an 'expert knowledge' based approach for the quantification of historical floods - the case study of the Kinzig catchment in Southwest Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bösmeier, Annette; Glaser, Rüdiger; Stahl, Kerstin; Himmelsbach, Iso; Schönbein, Johannes

2017-04-01

Future estimations of flood hazard and risk for developing optimal coping and adaption strategies inevitably include considerations of the frequency and magnitude of past events. Methods of historical climatology represent one way of assessing flood occurrences beyond the period of instrumental measurements and can thereby substantially help to extend the view into the past and to improve modern risk analysis. Such historical information can be of additional value and has been used in statistical approaches like Bayesian flood frequency analyses during recent years. However, the derivation of quantitative values from vague descriptive information of historical sources remains a crucial challenge. We explored possibilities of parametrization of descriptive flood related data specifically for the assessment of historical floods in a framework that combines a hermeneutical approach with mathematical and statistical methods. This study forms part of the transnational, Franco-German research project TRANSRISK2 (2014 - 2017), funded by ANR and DFG, with the focus on exploring the floods history of the last 300 years for the regions of Upper and Middle Rhine. A broad data base of flood events had been compiled, dating back to AD 1500. The events had been classified based on hermeneutical methods, depending on intensity, spatial dimension, temporal structure, damages and mitigation measures associated with the specific events. This indexed database allowed the exploration of a link between descriptive data and quantitative information for the overlapping time period of classified floods and instrumental measurements since the end of the 19th century. Thereby, flood peak discharges as a quantitative measure of the severity of a flood were used to assess the discharge intervals for flood classes (upper and lower thresholds) within different time intervals for validating the flood classification, as well as examining the trend in the perception threshold over time. Furthermore, within a suitable time period, flood classes and other quantifiable indicators of flood intensity (number of damaged locations mentioned in historical sources, general availability of reports associated with a specific event) were combined with available peak discharges measurements. We argue that this information can be considered as 'expert knowledge' and used it to develop a fuzzy rule based model for deriving peak discharge estimates of pre-instrumental events that can finally be introduced into a flood frequency analysis.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cummans, J.E.; Collings, Michael R.; Nasser, Edmund George

1975-01-01

Relations are provided to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on Washington streams. Annual-peak-flow data from stream gaging stations on unregulated streams having 1 years or more of record were used to determine a log-Pearson Type III frequency curve for each station. Flood magnitudes having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, i0, 25, 50, and 10years were then related to physical and climatic indices of the drainage basins by multiple-regression analysis using the Biomedical Computer Program BMDO2R. These regression relations are useful for estimating flood magnitudes of the specified recurrence intervals at ungaged or short-record sites. Separate sets of regression equations were defined for western and eastern parts of the State, and the State was further subdivided into 12 regions in which the annual floods exhibit similar flood characteristics. Peak flows are related most significantly in western Washington to drainage-area size and mean annual precipitation. In eastern Washington-they are related most significantly to drainage-area size, mean annual precipitation, and percentage of forest cover. Standard errors of estimate of the estimating relations range from 25 to 129 percent, and the smallest errors are generally associated with the more humid regions.

Coastal flooding events on the French coast of the eastern English Channel: the result of a combination of meteorological, marine, and morphological factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letortu, P.; Costa, S.; Cantat, O.; Levoy, F.; Dauvin, J. C.; De Saint-Léger, E.

2012-04-01

On account of increasing inhabitation and development of coastal areas, the economical stakes are high for forecasting and prevention of coastal flooding risk. Because of its exposure to prevailing Westerlies, morphological, and topographic features, low coastal areas on the French coast of the eastern English Channel are particularly sensitive to this natural risk. This sensitivity, that has always characterized this study area, is becoming worrying to politicians and inhabitants. The study aim is to identify, from 1949 to 2010, the possible increase of frequency and intensity of these meteorological and marine events, and their characteristics for forecasting objectives. The chosen approach is made up of three elements: 1) An analysis of strong west wind over the last decades has been implemented from Meteo-France data of Dieppe, reliable regional meteorological station. Beyond multi-annual random fluctuations, we have noticed a decrease in frequency and intensity of strong winds traditionally involved in flooding events. 2) An analysis of past events has been carried out from many information sources to warrant the accuracy of statements and their exhaustiveness. Thanks to this database, the main results are: i) the absence of increasing trend about frequency and intensity of coastal flooding events; ii) the cartography of coastal flooding risk for each urbanized area; iii) the definition of wind and tide level thresholds (7 m/s and 8.49 m at Dieppe) above which there is flooding. 3) A characterization, on the synoptic scale, of meteorological conditions ending in flooding has been performed. In matching this piece of information with the past events inventory, we have identified: firstly the two major types of low pressure trajectories that generated overflowing, so the two main atmospheric circulations prone to flooding, and secondly the fundamental meteorological aspect of the high north-west pressure gradient (≥ 20 hPa from "Pointe du Raz" (France) to Cromer city (U.K.)) of these flooding events. Frequency of this particular pressure configuration in the English Channel does not highlight any significant trend during the last century. Beyond tide level and wind (speed, direction) thresholds, another factor explains coastal flooding events. This is the matter of atmospheric cold front during high tide, observable in 70 % of coastal flooding events in the eastern English Channel. Analysis of these coastal flooding events cannot be restricted to simple meteorological and marine conditions during overflowing by the sea. This work emphasizes the need for longer analysis period. It is important to encompass the possible beach "preparation time" (lowering of the beach profile) by meteorological and marine conditions for a few days or weeks before flooding event. This "preparation time" may be short: 48 hours of strong winds (> 8 m/s) may be sufficient to shape a beach profile prone to overflowing. Coastal flooding is the result of a combination of factors from various time and space scales, which goes over the simple combination of extreme sea-level and strong wind perpendicular to coast.

Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates.

PubMed

Ben Dor, Yoav; Armon, Moshe; Ahlborn, Marieke; Morin, Efrat; Erel, Yigal; Brauer, Achim; Schwab, Markus Julius; Tjallingii, Rik; Enzel, Yehouda

2018-05-31

Floods comprise a dominant hydroclimatic phenomenon in aridlands with significant implications for humans, infrastructure, and landscape evolution worldwide. The study of short-term hydroclimatic variability, such as floods, and its forecasting for episodes of changing climate therefore poses a dominant challenge for the scientific community, and predominantly relies on modeling. Testing the capabilities of climate models to properly describe past and forecast future short-term hydroclimatic phenomena such as floods requires verification against suitable geological archives. However, determining flood frequency during changing climate is rarely achieved, because modern and paleoflood records, especially in arid regions, are often too short or discontinuous. Thus, coeval independent climate reconstructions and paleoflood records are required to further understand the impact of climate change on flood generation. Dead Sea lake levels reflect the mean centennial-millennial hydrological budget in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, floods in the large watersheds draining directly into the Dead Sea, are linked to short-term synoptic circulation patterns reflecting hydroclimatic variability. These two very different records are combined in this study to resolve flood frequency during opposing mean climates. Two 700-year-long, seasonally-resolved flood time series constructed from late Pleistocene Dead Sea varved sediments, coeval with significant Dead Sea lake level variations are reported. These series demonstrate that episodes of rising lake levels are characterized by higher frequency of floods, shorter intervals between years of multiple floods, and asignificantly larger number of years that experienced multiple floods. In addition, floods cluster into intervals of intense flooding, characterized by 75% and 20% increased frequency above their respective background frequencies during rising and falling lake-levels, respectively. Mean centennial precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean is therefore coupled with drastic changes in flood frequencies. These drastic changes in flood frequencies are linked to changes in the track, depth, and frequency of mid-latitude eastern Mediterranean cyclones, determining mean climatology resulting in wetter and drier regional climatic episodes.

Prediction of flood quantiles at ungaged watersheds in Louisiana : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1989-12-01

Four popular regional flood frequency methods were compared using Louisiana stream flow series. The state was divided into four homogeneous regions and all undistorted, long-term stream gages were used in the analysis. The GEV, TCEV, regional LP3 and...

Increased flood risks in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valleys, CA, under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, T.; Hidalgo-Leon, H.; Dettinger, M.; Cayan, D.

2008-12-01

Natural calamities like floods cause immense damages to human society globally, and California is no exception. A simulation analysis of flood generation in the western Sierra Nevada of California was carried out on simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model under prescribed changes in precipitation (+10 percent) and temperature (+3oC and +5oC) to evaluate likely changes in 3-day flood- frequency curves under climate change. An additional experiment was carried out where snow production was artificially turned off in VIC. All these experiments showed larger flood magnitudes from California's Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN), but the changes (for floods larger than the historical 20-year floods) were significant (at 90 percent confidence level) only in the SSN for severe warming cases. Another analysis using downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (CNRM CM3, GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR PCM1) and emission scenario A2 as input to VIC yielded a general increase in the 3-days annual maximum flows under climate change. The increases are significant (at 90 percent confidence level) in the SSN for the period 2051-2099 with all the three climate models analyzed. In the NSN the increases are significant only with the CNRM CM3 model. In general, the frequency of floods increases or stayed same under the projected future climates, and some of the projected floods were unprecedentedly large when compared to historical simulations.

Main flood peaks in the medieval Carpathian Basin (1000-1500): Annual and decadal overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea

2013-04-01

The analysis of over 140 reported floods is mainly based on contemporary legal evidence (charters), partly on other types of contemporary documentary evidence. Majority of sources contains data on individual flood events (i.e. occurrence, seasonality, magnitude). Concerning main flood peaks, evidence on annual and multi-annual (decadal, multi-decadal) level is also available. Despite data increase in the 13th century, only in the 14th-15th centuries documentation is representative enough to draw further conclusions. Apart from secondary flood peaks (probably in the mid-13th century and the turn of the 13th-14th centuries), three main periods with high flood frequencies are detected: 1330s-1350s, 1390s-1430s, and the late 1480s-1490s (continuing in the early 16th century). The first major flood peak was primarily reported in the eastern Carpathian Basin (the Tisa catchment), and can be characterised by a number of high-intensity flood events (with 1342-1343 in centre). During the second major, prolonged flood peak of 1390s-1430s, and that of the third, late 15th century one the importance of floods occurred on the Danube and in the Danube catchment area has to be as well highlighted. Moreover, in the first half of the 15th century long-term hydrological problems (prolonged high water-level and high flood frequency problems) can be identified. In some cases high flood-frequency periods were accompanied by documented hydromorphological impacts and some impacts on society can be also detected. Results show good agreement with the decadal precipitation reconstruction based on speleothem investigations carried out in North-Hungary.

Magnitude and Frequency of Rural Floods in the Southeastern United States, through 2006: Volume 2, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, J. Curtis; Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.

2009-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are required for the economical and safe design of transportation and water-conveyance structures. A multistate approach was used to update methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation, tidal fluctuations, or urban development. In North Carolina, annual peak-flow data available through September 2006 were available for 584 sites; 402 of these sites had a total of 10 or more years of systematic record that is required for at-site, flood-frequency analysis. Following data reviews and the computation of 20 physical and climatic basin characteristics for each station as well as at-site flood-frequency statistics, annual peak-flow data were identified for 363 sites in North Carolina suitable for use in this analysis. Among these 363 sites, 19 sites had records that could be divided into unregulated and regulated/ channelized annual peak discharges, which means peak-flow records were identified for a total of 382 cases in North Carolina. Considering the 382 cases, at-site flood-frequency statistics are provided for 333 unregulated cases (also used for the regression database) and 49 regulated/channelized cases. The flood-frequency statistics for the 333 unregulated sites were combined with data for sites from South Carolina, Georgia, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia to create a database of 943 sites considered for use in the regional regression analysis. Flood-frequency statistics were computed by fitting logarithms (base 10) of the annual peak flows to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation process, a new generalized skew coefficient was developed by using a Bayesian generalized least-squares regression model. Exploratory regression analyses using ordinary least-squares regression completed on the initial database of 943 sites resulted in defining five hydrologic regions for North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Stations with drainage areas less than 1 square mile were removed from the database, and a procedure to examine for basin redundancy (based on drainage area and periods of record) also resulted in the removal of some stations from the regression database. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 828 gaged stations were combined to form the final database that was used in the regional regression analysis. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations that can be used for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent chance exceedance flows for rural ungaged, basins in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. The final predictive equations are all functions of drainage area and the percentage of drainage basin within each of the five hydrologic regions. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 34.0 to 47.7 percent. Discharge estimates determined from the systematic records for the current study are, on average, larger in magnitude than those from a previous study for the highest percent chance exceedances (50 and 20 percent) and tend to be smaller than those from the previous study for the lower percent chance exceedances when all sites are considered as a group. For example, mean differences for sites in the Piedmont hydrologic region range from positive 0.5 percent for the 50-percent chance exceedance flow to negative 4.6 percent for the 0.2-percent chance exceedance flow when stations are grouped by hydrologic region. Similarly for the same hydrologic region, median differences range from positive 0.9 percent for the 50-percent chance exceedance flow to negative 7.1 percent for the 0.2-percent chance exceedance flow. However, mean and median percentage differences between the estimates from the previous and curre

Flood frequency estimates and documented and potential extreme peak discharges in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

2001-01-01

Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the dividing line.

Amplification of flood frequencies with local sea level rise and emerging flood regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, Maya K.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Kopp, Robert E.

2017-06-01

The amplification of flood frequencies by sea level rise (SLR) is expected to become one of the most economically damaging impacts of climate change for many coastal locations. Understanding the magnitude and pattern by which the frequency of current flood levels increase is important for developing more resilient coastal settlements, particularly since flood risk management (e.g. infrastructure, insurance, communications) is often tied to estimates of flood return periods. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report characterized the multiplication factor by which the frequency of flooding of a given height increases (referred to here as an amplification factor; AF). However, this characterization neither rigorously considered uncertainty in SLR nor distinguished between the amplification of different flooding levels (such as the 10% versus 0.2% annual chance floods); therefore, it may be seriously misleading. Because both historical flood frequency and projected SLR are uncertain, we combine joint probability distributions of the two to calculate AFs and their uncertainties over time. Under probabilistic relative sea level projections, while maintaining storm frequency fixed, we estimate a median 40-fold increase (ranging from 1- to 1314-fold) in the expected annual number of local 100-year floods for tide-gauge locations along the contiguous US coastline by 2050. While some places can expect disproportionate amplification of higher frequency events and thus primarily a greater number of historically precedented floods, others face amplification of lower frequency events and thus a particularly fast growing risk of historically unprecedented flooding. For example, with 50 cm of SLR, the 10%, 1%, and 0.2% annual chance floods are expected respectively to recur 108, 335, and 814 times as often in Seattle, but 148, 16, and 4 times as often in Charleston, SC.

Annual peak discharges from small drainage areas in Montana through September 1976

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, M.V.; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.

1977-01-01

Annual peak discharge from small drainage areas is tabulated for 336 sites in Montana. The 1976 additions included data collected at 206 sites. The program which investigates the magnitude and frequency of floods from small drainage areas in Montana, was begun July 1, 1955. Originally 45 crest-stage gaging stations were established. The purpose of the program is to collect sufficient peak-flow data, which through analysis could provide methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods at any point in Montana. The ultimate objective is to provide methods for estimating the 100-year flood with the reliability needed for road design. (Woodard-USGS)

Comparison between changes in flood hazard and risk in Spain using historical information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Mediero, Luis; Garrote, Luis; Gilabert, Joan

2015-04-01

Recently, the COST Action ES0901 "European procedures for flood frequency estimation (FloodFreq)" had as objective "the comparison and evaluation of methods for flood frequency estimation under the various climatologic and geographic conditions found in Europe". It was highlighted the improvement of regional analyses on at-site estimates, in terms of the uncertainty of quantile estimates. In the case of Spain, a regional analysis was carried out at a national scale, which allows identifying the flow threshold corresponding to a given return period from the observed flow series recorded at a gauging station. In addition, Mediero et al. (2014) studied the possible influence of non-stationarity on flood series for the period 1942-2009. In parallel, Barnolas and Llasat (2007), among others, collected documentary information of catastrophic flood events in Spain for the last centuries. Traditionally, the first approach ("top-down") usually identifies a flood as catastrophic, when its exceeds the 500-year return period flood. However, the second one ("bottom-up approach") accounts for flood damages (Llasat et al, 2005). This study presents a comparison between both approaches, discussing the potential factors that can lead to discrepancies between them, as well as accounting for information about major changes experienced in the catchment that could lead to changes in flood hazard and risk.

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges from urban basins in Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becker, L.D.

1986-01-01

Techniques are defined for estimating the magnitude and frequency of future flood peak discharges of rainfall-induced runoff from small urban basins in Missouri. These techniques were developed from an initial analysis of flood records of 96 gaged sites in Missouri and adjacent states. Final regression equations are based on a balanced, representative sampling of 37 gaged sites in Missouri. This sample included 9 statewide urban study sites, 18 urban sites in St. Louis County, and 10 predominantly rural sites statewide. Short-term records were extended on the basis of long-term climatic records and use of a rainfall-runoff model. Linear least-squares regression analyses were used with log-transformed variables to relate flood magnitudes of selected recurrence intervals (dependent variables) to selected drainage basin indexes (independent variables). For gaged urban study sites within the State, the flood peak estimates are from the frequency curves defined from the synthesized long-term discharge records. Flood frequency estimates are made for ungaged sites by using regression equations that require determination of the drainage basin size and either the percentage of impervious area or a basin development factor. Alternative sets of equations are given for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-yr recurrence interval floods. The average standard errors of estimate range from about 33% for the 2-yr flood to 26% for the 100-yr flood. The techniques for estimation are applicable to flood flows that are not significantly affected by storage caused by manmade activities. Flood peak discharge estimating equations are considered applicable for sites on basins draining approximately 0.25 to 40 sq mi. (Author 's abstract)

Regional flood frequency analysis in Triveneto (Italy): climate and scale controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persiano, Simone; Castellarin, Attilio; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Brath, Armando

2016-04-01

The growing concern about the possible effects of climate change on flood frequency regime is leading Authorities to review previously proposed procedures for design-flood estimation, such as national regionalization approaches. Our study focuses on the Triveneto region, a broad geographical area in North-eastern Italy consisting of the administrative regions of Trentino-Alto Adige, Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia. A reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto is available from the Italian NCR research project "VA.PI.", which developed a regional model using annual maximum series (AMS) of peak discharges that were collected up to the 80s by the former Italian Hydrometeorological Service. We consider a very detailed AMS database that we recently compiled for ~80 catchments located in Triveneto. Our dataset includes the historical data mentioned above, together with more recent data obtained from Regional Services and annual maximum peak streamflows extracted from inflow series to artificial reservoirs and provided by dam managers. All ~80 study catchments are characterized in terms of several geomorphologic and climatic descriptors. The main objectives of our study are: (1) to check whether climatic and scale controls on flood frequency regime in Triveneto are similar to the controls that were recently found in Europe; (2) to verify the possible presence of trends as well as abrupt changes in the intensity and frequency of flood extremes by looking at changes in time of regional L-moments of annual maximum floods; (3) to assess the reliability and representativeness of the reference procedure for design flood estimation relative to flood data that were not included in the VA.PI. dataset (i.e. more recent data collected after the 80s and historical data provided by dam managers); (4) to develop an updated reference procedure for design flood estimation in Triveneto by using a focused-pooling approach (i.e. Region of Influence, RoI).

Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

2016-04-01

Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

2016-04-01

The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

An Integrated Urban Flood Analysis System in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Min-Seok; Yoon, Tae-Hyung; Choi, Ji-Hyeok

2017-04-01

Due to climate change and the rapid growth of urbanization, the frequency of concentrated heavy rainfall has caused urban floods. As a result, we studied climate change in Korea and developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting in urban areas. This system supports synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information. As part of the measures to deal with the increase of inland flood damage, we have found it necessary to build a systematic city flood prevention system that systematizes technology to quantify flood risk as well as flood forecast, taking into consideration both inland and river water. This combined inland-river flood analysis system conducts prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and performs prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded area. In addition, flood forecasts should be accurate and immediate. Accurate flood forecasts signify that the prediction of the watch, warning time and water level is precise. Immediate flood forecasts represent the forecasts lead time which is the time needed to evacuate. Therefore, in this study, in order to apply rainfall-runoff method to medium and small urban stream for flood forecasts, short-term rainfall forecasting using radar is applied to improve immediacy. Finally, it supports synthetic decision-making for prevention of flood disaster through real-time monitoring. Keywords: Urban Flood, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (16AWMP-B066744-04) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

2016-04-01

In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

Prehistoric floods on the Tennessee River—Assessing the use of stratigraphic records of past floods for improved flood-frequency analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, Jim E.

2017-06-14

Stratigraphic analysis, coupled with geochronologic techniques, indicates that a rich history of large Tennessee River floods is preserved in the Tennessee River Gorge area. Deposits of flood sediment from the 1867 peak discharge of record (460,000 cubic feet per second at Chattanooga, Tennessee) are preserved at many locations throughout the study area at sites with flood-sediment accumulation. Small exposures at two boulder overhangs reveal evidence of three to four other floods similar in size, or larger, than the 1867 flood in the last 3,000 years—one possibly as much or more than 50 percent larger. Records of floods also are preserved in stratigraphic sections at the mouth of the gorge at Williams Island and near Eaves Ferry, about 70 river miles upstream of the gorge. These stratigraphic records may extend as far back as about 9,000 years ago, giving a long history of Tennessee River floods. Although more evidence is needed to confirm these findings, a more in-depth comprehensive paleoflood study is feasible for the Tennessee River.

Estimated Flood Discharges and Map of Flood-Inundated Areas for Omaha Creek, near Homer, Nebraska, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wilson, Richard C.; Strauch, Kellan R.

2008-01-01

Repeated flooding of Omaha Creek has caused damage in the Village of Homer. Long-term degradation and bridge scouring have changed substantially the channel characteristics of Omaha Creek. Flood-plain managers, planners, homeowners, and others rely on maps to identify areas at risk of being inundated. To identify areas at risk for inundation by a flood having a 1-percent annual probability, maps were created using topographic data and water-surface elevations resulting from hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. The hydrologic analysis for the Omaha Creek study area was performed using historical peak flows obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage (station number 06601000). Flood frequency and magnitude were estimated using the PEAKFQ Log-Pearson Type III analysis software. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, version 3.1.3, software was used to simulate the water-surface elevation for flood events. The calibrated model was used to compute streamflow-gage stages and inundation elevations for the discharges corresponding to floods of selected probabilities. Results of the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses indicated that flood inundation elevations are substantially lower than from a previous study.

6-kyr record of flood frequency and intensity in the western Mediterranean Alps - Interplay of solar and temperature forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabatier, Pierre; Wilhelm, Bruno; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Moiroux, Fanny; Poulenard, Jérôme; Develle, Anne-Lise; Bichet, Adeline; Chen, Wentao; Pignol, Cécile; Reyss, Jean-Louis; Gielly, Ludovic; Bajard, Manon; Perrette, Yves; Malet, Emmanuel; Taberlet, Pierre; Arnaud, Fabien

2017-08-01

The high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analysis of a sediment sequence from Lake Savine (Western Mediterranean Alps, France) led to the identification of 220 event layers for the last 6000 years. 200 were triggered by flood events and 20 by underwater mass movements possibly related to earthquakes that occurred in 5 clusters of increase seismicity. Because human activity could influence the flood chronicle, the presence of pastures was reconstructed through ancient DNA, which suggested that the flood chronicle was mainly driven by hydroclimate variability. Weather reanalysis of historical floods allow to identify that mesoscale precipitation events called "East Return" events were the main triggers of floods recorded in Lake Savine. The first part of this palaeoflood record (6-4 kyr BP) was characterized by increases in flood frequency and intensity in phase with Northern Alpine palaeoflood records. By contrast, the second part of the record (i.e., since 4 kyr BP) was phased with Southern Alpine palaeoflood records. These results suggest a palaeohydrological transition at approximately 4 kyr BP, as has been previously described for the Mediterranean region. This may have resulted in a change of flood-prone hydro-meteorological processes, i.e., in the balance between occurrence and intensity of local convective climatic phenomena and their influence on Mediterranean mesoscale precipitation events in this part of the Alps. At a centennial timescale, increases in flood frequency and intensity corresponded to periods of solar minima, affecting climate through atmospheric changes in the Euro-Atlantic sector.

Flood frequency analysis and generation of flood hazard indicator maps in a semi-arid environment, case of Ourika watershed (western High Atlas, Morocco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Alaoui El Fels, Abdelhafid; Alaa, Noureddine; Bachnou, Ali; Rachidi, Said

2018-05-01

The development of the statistical models and flood risk modeling approaches have seen remarkable improvements in their productivities. Their application in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in developing countries, can be extremely useful for better assessment and planning of flood risk in order to reduce the catastrophic impacts of this phenomenon. This study focuses on the Setti Fadma region (Ourika basin, Morocco) which is potentially threatened by floods and is subject to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. The study is based on two main axes: (i) the extreme flow frequency analysis, using 12 probability laws adjusted by Maximum Likelihood method and (ii) the generation of the flood risk indicator maps are based on the solution proposed by the Nays2DFlood solver of the Hydrodynamic model of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. The study is used as a spatial high-resolution digital model (Lidar) in order to get the nearest hydrological simulation of the reality. The results showed that the GEV is the most appropriate law of the extreme flows estimation for different return periods. Taking into consideration the mapping of 100-year flood area, the study revealed that the fluvial overflows extent towards the banks of Ourika and consequently, affects some living areas, cultivated fields and the roads that connects the valley to the city of Marrakech. The aim of this study is to propose new technics of the flood risk management allowing a better planning of the flooded areas.

Composite Analysis of Cold Season Atmospheric River Events: Extreme Precipitation and Flooding over the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eldardiry, H.; Hossain, F.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are narrow elongated corridors with horizontal water vapor transport located within the warm sector of extratropical cyclones. While it is widely known that most of heavy rainfall events across the western United States (US) are driven by ARs, the connection between atmospheric conditions and precipitation during an AR event has not been fully documented. In this study, we present a statistical analysis of the connection between precipitation, temperature, wind, and snowpack during the cold season AR events hitting the coastal regions of the western US. For each AR event, the precipitation and other atmospheric variables are retrieved through the dynamic downscaling of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis product using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model (ARW-WRF). The results show a low frequency of precipitation (below 0.3) during AR events that reflects the connection of AR with extreme precipitation. Examining the horizontal wind speed during AR events indicates a high correlation (above 0.7) with precipitation. In addition, high levels of snow water equivalence (SWE) are also noticed along the mountainous regions, e.g., Cascade Range and Sierra-Nevada mountain range, during most of AR events. Addressing the impact of duration on the frequency of precipitation, we develop Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves during AR events that can potentially describe the future predictability of precipitation along the north and south coast. To complement our analysis, we further investigate the flooding events recorded in the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) storm events database. While some flooding events are attributed to heavy rainfall associated with an AR event, other flooding events are significantly connected to the increase in the snowmelt before the flooding date. Thus, we introduce an index that describes the contribution of rainfall vs snowmelt and categorizes the flooding events during an AR event into rain-driven and snow-driven events. Such categorization can provide insight into whether or not an AR will produce extreme precipitation or flooding. The results from such investigations are important to understand historical AR events and assess how precipitation and flooding might evolve in future climate.

Flood-frequency relations for urban streams in Georgia; 1994 update

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Ernest J.

1995-01-01

A statewide study of flood magnitude and frequency in urban areas of Georgia was made to develop methods of estimating flood characteristics at ungaged urban sites. A knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is needed for the design of highway drainage structures, establishing flood- insurance rates, and other uses by urban planners and engineers. A U.S. Geological Survey rainfall-runoff model was calibrated for 65 urban drainage basins ranging in size from 0.04 to 19.1 square miles in 10 urban areas of Georgia. Rainfall-runoff data were collected for a period of 5 to 7 years at each station beginning in 1973 in Metropolitan Atlanta and ending in 1993 in Thomasville, Ga. Calibrated models were used to synthesize long-term annual flood peak discharges for these basins from existing Long-term rainfall records. The 2- to 500-year flood-frequency estimates were developed for each basin by fitting a Pearson Type III frequency distribution curve to the logarithms of these annual peak discharges. Multiple-regression analyses were used to define relations between the station flood-frequency data and several physical basin characteristics, of which drainage area and total impervious area were the most statistically significant. Using theseregression equations and basin characteristics, the magnitude and frequency of floods at ungaged urban basins can be estimated throughout Georgia.

Use of map analysis to elucidate flooding in an Australian Riparian River Red Gum Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bren, L. J.; O'Neill, I. C.; Gibbs, N. L.

1988-07-01

Red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) forests occur on extensive floodplains along the river Murray in Australia. This type of forest is unusual because of its high quality in a semiarid area, the absence of woody species other than red gum, and its survival on a deep, intractable, swelling clay soil of depths exceeding 20 m. This soil probably acts as an aquiclude. The forests require flooding to thrive and regenerate. For many years there has been speculation that irrigation regulation of the river was reducing forest flooding. A grid cell analysis of flood maps of areas flooded over a period of 22 years showed that vegetation communities and forest site quality were statistically related to the flood frequencies of sites. The percentage of forest inundated was dependent on the peak daily flow during the period of inundation. A historical analysis of the estimated percentage of forest inundated showed a substantial influence of river regulation on both timing and extent of inundation. Estimates of historical floodings showed that the environment is one that changes rapidly from wetland to dry land. Although not without limitations, the analysis produced information not available from other sources.

Flood characteristics for the New River in the New River Gorge National River, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.B.; Cunningham, M.K.

1994-01-01

The frequency and magnitude of flooding of the New River in the New River Gorge National River was studied. A steady-state, one-dimensional flow model was applied to the study reach. Rating curves, cross sections, and Manning's roughness coefficients that were used are presented in this report. Manning's roughness coefficients were evaluated by comparing computed elevations (from application of the steady-state, one-dimensional flow model) to rated elevations at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations and miscellaneous-rating sites. Manning's roughness coefficients ranged from 0.030 to 0.075 and varied with hydraulic depth. The 2-, 25-, and 100-year flood discharges were esti- mated on the basis of information from flood- insurance studies of Summers County, Fayette County, and the city of Hinton, and flood-frequency analysis of discharge records for the USGS streamflow-gaging stations at Hinton and Thurmond. The 100-year discharge ranged from 107,000 cubic feet per second at Hinton to 150,000 cubic feet per second at Fayette.

Handbook for Federal Insurance Administration: Flood-insurance studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, E.J.

1973-01-01

A flood insurance study, made for the Federal Insurance Administration (FIA) of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is an analysis of flood inundation frequency for all flood plains within the corporate limits of the community being studied. The study is an application of surveying, hydrology, and hydraulics to determine flood insurance premium rates. Much of the surveying needed can be done by private firms, either by ground methods or photogrammetry. Contracts are needed to let large surveys but purchase orders can be used for small ones. Photogrammetric stereo models, digital regression models, and step-backwater models are needed for most studies. Damage survey data are not involved.

Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Urban and Small Rural Streams in Georgia, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotvald, Anthony J.; Knaak, Andrew E.

2011-01-01

A study was conducted that updated methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in ungaged urban basins in Georgia that are not substantially affected by regulation or tidal fluctuations. Annual peak-flow data for urban streams from September 2008 were analyzed for 50 streamgaging stations (streamgages) in Georgia and 6 streamgages on adjacent urban streams in Florida and South Carolina having 10 or more years of data. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the 56 urban streamgages by fitting logarithms of annual peak flows for each streamgage to a Pearson Type III distribution. Additionally, basin characteristics for the streamgages were computed by using a geographical information system and computer algorithms. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of equations for estimating flows with 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for ungaged urban basins in Georgia. In addition to the 56 urban streamgages, 171 rural streamgages were included in the regression analysis to maintain continuity between flood estimates for urban and rural basins as the basin characteristics pertaining to urbanization approach zero. Because 21 of the rural streamgages have drainage areas less than 1 square mile, the set of equations developed for this study can also be used for estimating small ungaged rural streams in Georgia. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 227 streamgages were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. Four hydrologic regions were developed for Georgia. The final equations are functions of drainage area and percentage of impervious area for three of the regions and drainage area, percentage of developed land, and mean basin slope for the fourth region. Average standard errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 20.0 to 74.5 percent.

Decision tree analysis of factors influencing rainfall-related building damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spekkers, M. H.; Kok, M.; Clemens, F. H. L. R.; ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.

2014-04-01

Flood damage prediction models are essential building blocks in flood risk assessments. Little research has been dedicated so far to damage of small-scale urban floods caused by heavy rainfall, while there is a need for reliable damage models for this flood type among insurers and water authorities. The aim of this paper is to investigate a wide range of damage-influencing factors and their relationships with rainfall-related damage, using decision tree analysis. For this, district-aggregated claim data from private property insurance companies in the Netherlands were analysed, for the period of 1998-2011. The databases include claims of water-related damage, for example, damages related to rainwater intrusion through roofs and pluvial flood water entering buildings at ground floor. Response variables being modelled are average claim size and claim frequency, per district per day. The set of predictors include rainfall-related variables derived from weather radar images, topographic variables from a digital terrain model, building-related variables and socioeconomic indicators of households. Analyses were made separately for property and content damage claim data. Results of decision tree analysis show that claim frequency is most strongly associated with maximum hourly rainfall intensity, followed by real estate value, ground floor area, household income, season (property data only), buildings age (property data only), ownership structure (content data only) and fraction of low-rise buildings (content data only). It was not possible to develop statistically acceptable trees for average claim size, which suggest that variability in average claim size is related to explanatory variables that cannot be defined at the district scale. Cross-validation results show that decision trees were able to predict 22-26% of variance in claim frequency, which is considerably better compared to results from global multiple regression models (11-18% of variance explained). Still, a large part of the variance in claim frequency is left unexplained, which is likely to be caused by variations in data at subdistrict scale and missing explanatory variables.

A comparison of three approaches to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debele, S. E.; Strupczewski, W. G.; Bogdanowicz, E.

2017-08-01

Non-stationary flood frequency analysis (FFA) is applied to statistical analysis of seasonal flow maxima from Polish and Norwegian catchments. Three non-stationary estimation methods, namely, maximum likelihood (ML), two stage (WLS/TS) and GAMLSS (generalized additive model for location, scale and shape parameters), are compared in the context of capturing the effect of non-stationarity on the estimation of time-dependent moments and design quantiles. The use of a multimodel approach is recommended, to reduce the errors due to the model misspecification in the magnitude of quantiles. The results of calculations based on observed seasonal daily flow maxima and computer simulation experiments showed that GAMLSS gave the best results with respect to the relative bias and root mean square error in the estimates of trend in the standard deviation and the constant shape parameter, while WLS/TS provided better accuracy in the estimates of trend in the mean value. Within three compared methods the WLS/TS method is recommended to deal with non-stationarity in short time series. Some practical aspects of the GAMLSS package application are also presented. The detailed discussion of general issues related to consequences of climate change in the FFA is presented in the second part of the article entitled "Around and about an application of the GAMLSS package in non-stationary flood frequency analysis".

Flood frequency analysis for a braided river catchment in New Zealand: Comparing annual maximum and partial duration series with varying record lengths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, B. K.; Mohssen, M.; Hughey, K. F. D.

2017-04-01

This study addresses technical questions concerning the use of the partial duration series (PDS) within the domain of flood frequency analysis. The recurring questions which often prevent the standardised use of the PDS are peak independence and threshold selection. This paper explores standardised approaches to peak and threshold selection to produce PDS samples with differing average annual exceedances, using six theoretical probability distributions. The availability of historical annual maximum (AMS) data (1930-1966) in addition to systemic AMS data (1967-2015) enables a unique comparison between the performance of the PDS sample and the systemic AMS sample. A recently derived formula for the translation of the PDS into the annual domain, simplifying the use of the PDS, is utilised in an applied case study for the first time. Overall, the study shows that PDS sampling returns flood magnitudes similar to those produced by AMS series utilising historical data and thus the use of the PDS should be preferred in cases where historical flood data is unavailable.

Characteristics of the April 2007 Flood at 10 Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Carlson, Carl S.

2009-01-01

A large 'nor'easter' storm on April 15-18, 2007, brought heavy rains to the southern New England region that, coupled with normal seasonal high flows and associated wet soil-moisture conditions, caused extensive flooding in many parts of Massachusetts and neighboring states. To characterize the magnitude of the April 2007 flood, a peak-flow frequency analysis was undertaken at 10 selected streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts to determine the magnitude of flood flows at 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year return intervals. The magnitude of flood flows at various return intervals were determined from the logarithms of the annual peaks fit to a Pearson Type III probability distribution. Analysis included augmenting the station record with longer-term records from one or more nearby stations to provide a common period of comparison that includes notable floods in 1936, 1938, and 1955. The April 2007 peak flow was among the highest recorded or estimated since 1936, often ranking between the 3d and 5th highest peak for that period. In general, the peak-flow frequency analysis indicates the April 2007 peak flow has an estimated return interval between 25 and 50 years; at stations in the northeastern and central areas of the state, the storm was less severe resulting in flows with return intervals of about 5 and 10 years, respectively. At Merrimack River at Lowell, the April 2007 peak flow approached a 100-year return interval that was computed from post-flood control records and the 1936 and 1938 peak flows adjusted for flood control. In general, the magnitude of flood flow for a given return interval computed from the streamflow-gaging station period-of-record was greater than those used to calculate flood profiles in various community flood-insurance studies. In addition, the magnitude of the updated flood flow and current (2008) stage-discharge relation at a given streamflow-gaging station often produced a flood stage that was considerably different than the flood stage indicated in the flood-insurance study flood profile at that station. Equations for estimating the flow magnitudes for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year floods were developed from the relation of the magnitude of flood flows to drainage area calculated from the six streamflow-gaging stations with the longest unaltered record. These equations produced a more conservative estimate of flood flows (higher discharges) than the existing regional equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged rivers in Massachusetts. Large differences in the magnitude of flood flows for various return intervals determined in this study compared to results from existing regional equations and flood insurance studies indicate a need for updating regional analyses and equations for estimating the expected magnitude of flood flows in Massachusetts.

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharge and Maximum Observed Peak Discharge in New Mexico and Surrounding Areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, Scott D.

2008-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable design of bridges, culverts, and open-channel hydraulic analysis, and for flood-hazard mapping in New Mexico and surrounding areas. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Mexico Department of Transportation, updated estimates of peak-discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and updated regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites by use of data collected through 2004 for 293 gaging stations on unregulated streams that have 10 or more years of record. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 140 of the 293 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge by having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each of the nine regions, logarithms of the maximum peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics by using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then were applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 38 to 93 percent (mean value is 62, and median value is 59) for the 100-year flood. The 1996 investigation standard error of prediction for the flood regions ranged from 41 to 96 percent (mean value is 67, and median value is 68) for the 100-year flood that was analyzed by using generalized least-squares regression analysis. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are more reliable than those in the 1996 report because of the increased length of record and improved geographic information system (GIS) method to determine basin and climatic characteristics. Flood-frequency estimates can be made for ungaged sites upstream or downstream from gaging stations by using a method that transfers flood-frequency data at the gaging station to the ungaged site by using a drainage-area ratio adjustment equation. The peak discharge for a given recurrence interval at the gaging station, drainage-area ratio, and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region is used to transfer the peak discharge for the recurrence interval to the ungaged site. Maximum observed peak discharge as related to drainage area was determined for New Mexico. Extreme events are commonly used in the design and appraisal of bridge crossings and other structures. Bridge-scour evaluations are commonly made by using the 500-year peak discharge for these appraisals. Peak-discharge data collected at 293 gaging stations and 367 miscellaneous sites were used to develop a maximum peak-discharge relation as an alternative method of estimating peak discharge of an extreme event such as a maximum probable flood.

The Effects of the Saluda Dam on the Surface-Water and Ground-Water Hydrology of the Congaree National Park Flood Plain, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Harrelson, Larry G.

2008-01-01

The Congaree National Park was established '... to preserve and protect for the education, inspiration, and enjoyment of present and future generations an outstanding example of a near-virgin, southern hardwood forest situated in the Congaree River flood plain in Richland County, South Carolina' (Public Law 94-545). The resource managers at Congaree National Park are concerned about the timing, frequency, magnitude, and duration of flood-plain inundation of the Congaree River. The dynamics of the Congaree River directly affect ground-water levels in the flood plain, and the delivery of sediments and nutrients is constrained by the duration, extent, and frequency of flooding from the Congaree River. The Congaree River is the southern boundary of the Congaree National Park and is formed by the convergence of the Saluda and Broad Rivers 24 river miles upstream from the park. The streamflow of the Saluda River has been regulated since 1929 by the operation of the Saluda Dam at Lake Murray. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, Congaree National Park, studied the interaction between surface water in the Congaree River and ground water in the flood plain to determine the effect Saluda Dam operations have on water levels in the Congaree National Park flood plain. Analysis of peak flows showed the reduction in peak flows after the construction of Lake Murray was more a result of climate variability and the absence of large floods after 1930 than the operation of the Lake Murray dam. Dam operations reduced the recurrence interval of the 2-year to 100-year peak flows by 6.1 to 17.6 percent, respectively. Analysis of the daily gage height of the Congaree River showed that the dam has had the effect of lowering high gage heights (95th percentile) in the first half of the year (December to May) and raising low gage heights (5th percentile) in the second half of the year (June to November). The dam has also had the effect of increasing the 1-, 3-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day minimum gage heights by as much as 23.9 percent and decreasing the 1-, 3-, 7-, 30-, and 90-day maximum gage heights by as much as 7.2 percent. Analysis of the ground-water elevations in the Congaree National Park flood plain shows similar results as the gage-height analysis--the dam has had the effect of lowering high ground-water elevations and increasing low ground-water elevations. Overall, the operation of the dam has had a greater effect on the gage heights within the river banks than gage heights in the flood plain. This result may have a greater effect on the subsurface water levels of the surficial flood-plain aquifer than the frequency and magnitude of inundation of the flood plain.

Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

2015-12-01

The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

Drought, flood and rainfall analysis under climate change in Crete, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapoglou, Evdokia; Vozinaki, Anthi-Eirini; Tsanis, Ioannis; Nerantzaki, Sofia; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos

2017-04-01

In this study an analysis on the drought frequency and magnitude under climate change in Crete, Greece is performed. The analysis was performed for the time period from 1983-2100, divided into three sub-periods (1983-1999, 2000-2049 and 2050-2099) for inter-comparison. Two climate models were studied MPI-ESM-LR-r1-CSC-REMO and EC-EARTH-r12-SMHI-RCA4, following three possible representative concentration pathways (+2.6, +4.5 and +8.5 W/m2). In order to perform the analysis the results of a SWAT simulation which covered the entity of Crete using 352 subbasins, was used. Drought events are recognized by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify the meteorological drought events and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) for hydrological droughts. SPI and SRI drought indices, were used in order to identify the number of drought events for each climate model and scenario. In all cases, an increase in both severity and number of drought events was calculated for the future periods, compared to the baseline period 1983-1999. This increase was smaller for the +2.6 W/m2 scenario and largest for the +8.5 W/m2. The magnitude of events with 10 and 100 years return period was calculated for the subbasins of Crete and the most vulnerable were identified, both in terms of severity and the change throughout the years in index magnitude. Next a flood frequency analysis was performed for the entity of Crete Island in order to calculate the magnitude of events with 10 and 100 years return period. In order to perform the flood frequency analysis, the results of the SWAT simulation in terms of runoff in each subbasin are used. By calculating the magnitude of flood events with 10 and 100 years return period and the change in the magnitude throughout the time periods the most vulnerable subbasins are identified. The same frequency analysis was performed for the precipitation at each subbasin, and the magnitude of extreme precipitation events with 10 and 100 years return period was calculated. In this case the most significant changes appeared in Chania prefecture, having a 25-50% increase in extreme precipitation magnitude for the 10 years and the 100 years return period until the end of the third study period. Drought and flood frequency analysis can be proved a valuable tool in water management and infrastructure projects planning providing an integrated analysis for extreme event magnitude anticipation in Crete. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

Comparing the index-flood and multiple-regression methods using L-moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malekinezhad, H.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Klik, A.

In arid and semi-arid regions, the length of records is usually too short to ensure reliable quantile estimates. Comparing index-flood and multiple-regression analyses based on L-moments was the main objective of this study. Factor analysis was applied to determine main influencing variables on flood magnitude. Ward’s cluster and L-moments approaches were applied to several sites in the Namak-Lake basin in central Iran to delineate homogeneous regions based on site characteristics. Homogeneity test was done using L-moments-based measures. Several distributions were fitted to the regional flood data and index-flood and multiple-regression methods as two regional flood frequency methods were compared. The results of factor analysis showed that length of main waterway, compactness coefficient, mean annual precipitation, and mean annual temperature were the main variables affecting flood magnitude. The study area was divided into three regions based on the Ward’s method of clustering approach. The homogeneity test based on L-moments showed that all three regions were acceptably homogeneous. Five distributions were fitted to the annual peak flood data of three homogeneous regions. Using the L-moment ratios and the Z-statistic criteria, GEV distribution was identified as the most robust distribution among five candidate distributions for all the proposed sub-regions of the study area, and in general, it was concluded that the generalised extreme value distribution was the best-fit distribution for every three regions. The relative root mean square error (RRMSE) measure was applied for evaluating the performance of the index-flood and multiple-regression methods in comparison with the curve fitting (plotting position) method. In general, index-flood method gives more reliable estimations for various flood magnitudes of different recurrence intervals. Therefore, this method should be adopted as regional flood frequency method for the study area and the Namak-Lake basin in central Iran. To estimate floods of various return periods for gauged catchments in the study area, the mean annual peak flood of the catchments may be multiplied by corresponding values of the growth factors, and computed using the GEV distribution.

Towards a systematic approach to comparing distributions used in flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobée, B.; Cavadias, G.; Ashkar, F.; Bernier, J.; Rasmussen, P.

1993-02-01

The estimation of flood quantiles from available streamflow records has been a topic of extensive research in this century. However, the large number of distributions and estimation methods proposed in the scientific literature has led to a state of confusion, and a gap prevails between theory and practice. This concerns both at-site and regional flood frequency estimation. To facilitate the work of "hydrologists, designers of hydraulic structures, irrigation engineers and planners of water resources", the World Meteorological Organization recently published a report which surveys and compares current methodologies, and recommends a number of statistical distributions and estimation procedures. This report is an important step towards the clarification of this difficult topic, but we think that it does not effectively satisfy the needs of practitioners as intended, because it contains some statements which are not statistically justified and which require further discussion. In the present paper we review commonly used procedures for flood frequency estimation, point out some of the reasons for the present state of confusion concerning the advantages and disadvantages of the various methods, and propose the broad lines of a possible comparison strategy. We recommend that the results of such comparisons be discussed in an international forum of experts, with the purpose of attaining a more coherent and broadly accepted strategy for estimating floods.

Copula-based assessment of the relationship between food peaks and flood volumes using information on historical floods by Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Szolgay, Ján.; Bacigál, Tomáå.¡; Kohnová, Silvia

2010-05-01

Copula-based estimation methods of hydro-climatological extremes have increasingly been gaining attention of researchers and practitioners in the last couple of years. Unlike the traditional estimation methods which are based on bivariate cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), copulas are a relatively flexible tool of statistics that allow for modelling dependencies between two or more variables such as flood peaks and flood volumes without making strict assumptions on the marginal distributions. The dependence structure and the reliability of the joint estimates of hydro-climatological extremes, mainly in the right tail of the joint CDF not only depends on the particular copula adopted but also on the data available for the estimation of the marginal distributions of the individual variables. Generally, data samples for frequency modelling have limited temporal extent, which is a considerable drawback of frequency analyses in practice. Therefore, it is advised to deal with statistical methods that improve any part of the process of copula construction and result in more reliable design values of hydrological variables. The scarcity of the data sample mostly in the extreme tail of the joint CDF can be bypassed, e.g., by using a considerably larger amount of simulated data by rainfall-runoff analysis or by including historical information on the variables under study. The latter approach of data extension is used here to make the quantile estimates of the individual marginals of the copula more reliable. In the presented paper it is proposed to use historical information in the frequency analysis of the marginal distributions in the framework of Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulations. Generally, a Bayesian approach allows for a straightforward combination of different sources of information on floods (e.g. flood data from systematic measurements and historical flood records, respectively) in terms of a product of the corresponding likelihood functions. On the other hand, the MCMC algorithm is a numerical approach for sampling from the likelihood distributions. The Bayesian MCMC methods therefore provide an attractive way to estimate the uncertainty in parameters and quantile metrics of frequency distributions. The applicability of the method is demonstrated in a case study of the hydroelectric power station Orlík on the Vltava River. This site has a key role in the flood prevention of Prague, the capital city of the Czech Republic. The record length of the available flood data is 126 years from the period 1877-2002, while the flood event observed in 2002 that caused extensive damages and numerous casualties is treated as a historic one. To estimate the joint probabilities of flood peaks and volumes, different copulas are fitted and their goodness-of-fit are evaluated by bootstrap simulations. Finally, selected quantiles of flood volumes conditioned on given flood peaks are derived and compared with those obtained by the traditional method used in the practice of water management specialists of the Vltava River.

Regional skew for California, and flood frequency for selected sites in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, based on data through water year 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Veilleux, Andrea; Stedinger, J.R.; Barth, N.A.; Knifong, Donna L.; Ferris, J.C.

2011-01-01

Improved flood-frequency information is important throughout California in general and in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin in particular, because of an extensive network of flood-control levees and the risk of catastrophic flooding. A key first step in updating flood-frequency information is determining regional skew. A Bayesian generalized least squares (GLS) regression method was used to derive a regional-skew model based on annual peak-discharge data for 158 long-term (30 or more years of record) stations throughout most of California. The desert areas in southeastern California had too few long-term stations to reliably determine regional skew for that hydrologically distinct region; therefore, the desert areas were excluded from the regional skew analysis for California. Of the 158 long-term stations used to determine regional skew, 145 have minimally regulated annual-peak discharges, and 13 stations are dam sites for which unregulated peak discharges were estimated from unregulated daily maximum discharge data furnished by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers. Station skew was determined by using an expected moments algorithm (EMA) program for fitting the Pearson Type 3 flood-frequency distribution to the logarithms of annual peak-discharge data. The Bayesian GLS regression method previously developed was modified because of the large cross correlations among concurrent recorded peak discharges in California and the use of censored data and historical flood information with the new expected moments algorithm. In particular, to properly account for these cross-correlation problems and develop a suitable regression model and regression diagnostics, a combination of Bayesian weighted least squares and generalized least squares regression was adopted. This new methodology identified a nonlinear function relating regional skew to mean basin elevation. The regional skew values ranged from -0.62 for a mean basin elevation of zero to 0.61 for a mean basin elevation of 11,000 feet. This relation between skew and elevation reflects the interaction of snow with rain, which increases with increased elevation. The equivalent record length for the new regional skew ranges from 52 to 65 years of record, depending upon mean basin elevation. The old regional skew map in Bulletin 17B, published by the Hydrology Subcommittee of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (1982), reported an equivalent record length of only 17 years. The newly developed regional skew relation for California was used to update flood frequency for the 158 sites used in the regional skew analysis as well as 206 selected sites in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin. For these sites, annual-peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years were determined on the basis of data through water year 2006. The expected moments algorithm was used for determining the magnitude and frequency of floods at gaged sites by using regional skew values and using the basic approach outlined in Bulletin

Magnitude and frequency of summer floods in western New Mexico and eastern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennon, F.W.

1955-01-01

Numerous small reservoirs and occasional water-spreading structures are being built on the ephemeral streams draining the public and Indian lands of the Southwest as part of the Soil and Moisture Conservation Program of the Bureau of Land Management and Bureau of Indian Affairs.  Economic design of these structures requires some knowledge of the flood rates and volumes.  Information concerning flood frequencies on areas less than 100 square miles is deficient throughout the country, particularly on intermittent streams of the Southwest.  Design engineers require a knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of flood volumes for the planning of adequate reservoir capacities and a knowledge of frequency and magnitude of flood peaks for spillway design.  Hence, this study deals with both flood volumes and peaks, the same statistical methods being used to develop frequency curves for each.

Improving flash flood frequency analyses by using non-systematic dendrogeomorphic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; María Bodoque, Jose; Garrote, Julio; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania

2017-04-01

Flash floods have a rapid hydrological response in catchments with short lag times, characterized by ''peaky'' hydrographs. The peak flows are reached within a few hours, thus giving little or no advance warning to prevent and mitigate flood damage. As a result, flash floods may result in a high social risk, as shown for instance by the 1997 Biescas disaster in Spain. The analysis and management of flood risk are clearly conditioned by data availability, especially in mountain areas where usually flash-floods occur. Nevertheless, in mountain basins there is often short data series available that are not accurate in terms of statistical significance. In addition, when flow data is ready for use maximum annual values are generally not as reliable as average flow values, since conventional stream gauge stations may not record the extreme floods, leading to gaps in the time series. Dendrogeomorphology has been shown to be especially useful for improving flood frequency analyses in catchments where short flood series limit the use of conventional hydrological methods. This study presents pros and cons of using a given probability distribution function, such as the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to account for non-systematic data provided by dendrogeomorphic techniques, in order to asses flood quantile estimates accuracy. To this end, we have considered a set of locations in Central Spain, where systematic flow available at a gauging site can be extended with non-systematic data obtained from implementation of dendrogeomorphic techniques.

Solar modulation of flood frequency in Central Europe during spring and summer on inter-annual to millennial time-scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Czymzik, M.; Muscheler, R.; Brauer, A.

2015-10-01

Solar influences on climate variability are one of the most controversially discussed topics in climate research. We analyze solar forcing of flood frequency in Central Europe on inter-annual to millennial time-scales using daily discharge data of River Ammer (southern Germany) back to AD 1926 and revisiting the 5500 year flood layer time-series from varved sediments of the downstream Lake Ammersee. Flood frequency in the discharge record is significantly correlated to changes in solar activity during solar cycles 16-23 (r = -0.47, p < 0.0001, n = 73). Flood layer frequency (n = 1501) in the sediment record depicts distinct multi-decadal variability and significant correlations to 10Be fluxes from a Greenland ice core (r = 0.45, p < 0.0001) and 14C production rates (r =0.36, p < 0.0001), proxy records of solar activity. Flood frequency is higher when solar activity is reduced. These correlations between flood frequency and solar activity might provide empirical support for the solar top-down mechanism expected to modify the mid-latitude storm tracks over Europe by model studies. A lag of flood frequency responses in the Ammer discharge record to changes in solar activity of about one to three years could be explained by a modelled ocean-atmosphere feedback delaying the atmospheric reaction to solar activity variations up to a few years.

Living with floods in the Jamuna floodplain (Bangladesh): fight or flight? Technological and societal responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruknul Ferdous, Md; Wesselink, Anna; Brandimarte, Luigia; Slager, Kymo; Mynett, Arthur; Zwarteveen, Margreet

2017-04-01

Building onto the general theory introduced by Di Baldassarre, this paper uses a socio-hydrological approach to describe human-flood interactions in the Jamuna floodplain, Bangladesh. In this vast space (a braided river bed of 6-16 km; floodplains up to 50 km wide) the differences between land and water are temporary and shifting. Government flood defence structures were constructed on the west bank only, while community initiatives exist on the east bank. As a result, there are several kinds of socio-hydrological spaces along, but also in the river, with different livelihoods and flood characteristics. This variety gives rise to co-existence of 'living with floods' and 'fighting floods' approaches. The analysis is based on recent fieldwork, in which information on historical and current livelihoods, migration and the floodplain system was collected at household level. Our analysis enables us to tentatively confirm the levee effect described by Di Baldassarre et al. (2013); however, his hypothesis that people move away from unprotected floodplains is only true to some extent. Adaptation in Bangladesh means first of all literally 'living with floods': being flooded with greater or lesser frequency. Key words: Bangladesh; Jamuna River; river flooding; socio-hydrological dynamics

On Flood Frequency in Urban Areas under Changing Conditions and Implications on Stormwater Infrastructure Planning and Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norouzi, A.; Habibi, H.; Nazari, B.; Noh, S.; Seo, D. J.; Zhang, Y.

2016-12-01

With urbanization and climate change, many areas in the US and abroad face increasing threats of flash flooding. Due to nonstationarities arising from changes in land cover and climate, however, it is not readily possible to project how such changes may modify flood frequency. In this work, we describe a simple spatial stochastic model for rainfall-to-areal runoff in urban areas, evaluate climatological mean and variance of mean areal runoff (MAR) over a range of catchment scale, translate them into runoff frequency, which is used as a proxy for flood frequency, and assess its sensitivity to precipitation, imperviousness and soil, and their changes as a function of catchment scale and magnitude of precipitation. The findings indicate that, due to large sensitivity of frequency of MAR to multiple hydrometeorological and physiographic factors, estimation of flood frequency for urban catchments is inherently more uncertain. The approach used in this work is useful in developing bounds for flood frequencies in urban areas under nonstationary conditions arising from urbanization and climate change.

Estimation of frequency based flood peak for an ungauged watershed using field calibration : technical summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-06-01

This report presents: (1) calculation of flood frequency for the Ward Creek watershed using eight flood prediction models, (2) establishment of the rating curve (stage-discharge relation) for the Ward Creek watershed, (3) evaluation of these flood pr...

Hydrologic risk analysis in the Yangtze River basin through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Y. R.; Huang, W. W.; Huang, G. H.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, K.; Li, Z.

2016-02-01

In this study, a bivariate hydrologic risk framework is proposed through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas, leading to a coupled GMM-copula method. In the coupled GMM-Copula method, the marginal distributions of flood peak, volume and duration are quantified through Gaussian mixture models and the joint probability distributions of flood peak-volume, peak-duration and volume-duration are established through copulas. The bivariate hydrologic risk is then derived based on the joint return period of flood variable pairs. The proposed method is applied to the risk analysis for the Yichang station on the main stream of the Yangtze River, China. The results indicate that (i) the bivariate risk for flood peak-volume would keep constant for the flood volume less than 1.0 × 105 m3/s day, but present a significant decreasing trend for the flood volume larger than 1.7 × 105 m3/s day; and (ii) the bivariate risk for flood peak-duration would not change significantly for the flood duration less than 8 days, and then decrease significantly as duration value become larger. The probability density functions (pdfs) of the flood volume and duration conditional on flood peak can also be generated through the fitted copulas. The results indicate that the conditional pdfs of flood volume and duration follow bimodal distributions, with the occurrence frequency of the first vertex decreasing and the latter one increasing as the increase of flood peak. The obtained conclusions from the bivariate hydrologic analysis can provide decision support for flood control and mitigation.

Variable Trends in High Peak Flow Generation Across the Swedish Sub-Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Lyon, S. W.

2015-12-01

There is growing concern about increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts globally in recent years. Improving knowledge on the complexity of hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of these extreme events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true in cold regions such as the Swedish Sub-Arctic where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on extremes. This study explores changes in the magnitude and timing of the annual maximum daily flows in 18 Swedish sub-arctic catchments. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in selected hydrological signatures. Further, a flood frequency analysis was conducted by fitting a Gumbel (Extreme Value type I) distribution whereby selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Our results showed that hydrological systems in cold climates have complex, heterogeneous interactions with climate. Shifts from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime were evident with all significant trends pointing towards (1) lower flood magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest permafrost thawing and are in agreement with the increasing trends in annual minimum flows. Trends in the selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the entire period of record, while trends were variable under shorter periods. A thorough uncertainty analysis emphasized that the applied trend test is highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional pattern could be determined suggesting that how catchments are responding to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Vertical accretion sand proxies of gaged floods along the upper Little Tennessee River, Blue Ridge Mountains, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leigh, David S.

2018-02-01

Understanding environmental hazards presented by river flooding has been enhanced by paleoflood analysis, which uses sedimentary records to document floods beyond historical records. Bottomland overbank deposits (e.g., natural levees, floodbasins, meander scars, low terraces) have the potential as continuous paleoflood archives of flood frequency and magnitude, but they have been under-utilized because of uncertainty about their ability to derive flood magnitude estimates. The purpose of this paper is to provide a case study that illuminates tremendous potential of bottomland overbank sediments as reliable proxies of both flood frequency and magnitude. Methods involve correlation of particle-size measurements of the coarse tail of overbank deposits (> 0.25 mm sand) from three separate sites with historical flood discharge records for the upper Little Tennessee River in the Blue Ridge Mountains of the southeastern United States. Results show that essentially all floods larger than a 20% probability event can be detected by the coarse tail of particle-size distributions, especially if the temporal resolution of sampling is annual or sub-annual. Coarser temporal resolution (1.0 to 2.5 year sample intervals) provides an adequate record of large floods, but is unable to discriminate individual floods separated by only one to three years. Measurements of > 0.25 mm sand that are normalized against a smoothed trend line through the down-column data produce highly significant correlations (R2 values of 0.50 to 0.60 with p-values of 0.004 to < 0.001) between sand peak values and flood peak discharges, indicating that flood magnitude can be reliably estimated. In summary, bottomland overbank deposits can provide excellent continuous records of paleofloods when the following conditions are met: 1) Stable depositional sites should be chosen; 2) Analysis should concentrate on the coarse tails of particle-size distributions; 3) Sampling of sediment intervals should achieve annual or better resolution; 4) Time-series data of particle-size should be detrended to minimize variation from dynamic aspects of fluvial sedimentation that are not related to flood magnitude; and 5) Multiple sites should be chosen to allow for replication of findings.

A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

PubMed

Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

2017-07-11

Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

Methods for Estimating Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in Rural Basins in the Southeastern United States: South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2009-01-01

For more than 50 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations that can be used to estimate flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. Flood magnitude relates to the volume of flow that occurs over some period of time and usually is presented in cubic feet per second. Flood frequency relates to the probability of occurrence of a flood; that is, on average, what is the likelihood that a flood with a specified magnitude will occur in any given year (1 percent chance, 10 percent chance, 50 percent chance, and so on). Such flood estimates are needed for the efficient design of bridges, highway embankments, levees, and other structures near streams. In addition, these estimates are needed for the effective planning and management of land and water resources, to protect lives and property in flood-prone areas, and to determine flood-insurance rates.

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity I. A simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

The stationarity of annual flood peak records is the traditional assumption of flood frequency analysis. In some cases, however, as a result of land-use and/or climate change, this assumption is no longer valid. Therefore, new statistical models are needed to capture dynamically the change of probability density functions over time, in order to obtain reliable flood estimation. In this study, an innovative method for nonstationary flood frequency analysis was presented. Here, the new method is based on detrending the flood series and applying the L-moments along with the GEV distribution to the transformed ;stationary; series (hereafter, this is called the LM-NS). The LM-NS method was assessed through a comparative study with the maximum likelihood (ML) method for the nonstationary GEV model, as well as with the stationary (S) GEV model. The comparative study, based on Monte Carlo simulations, was carried out for three nonstationary GEV models: a linear dependence of the mean on time (GEV1), a quadratic dependence of the mean on time (GEV2), and linear dependence in both the mean and log standard deviation on time (GEV11). The simulation results indicated that the LM-NS method performs better than the ML method for most of the cases studied, whereas the stationary method provides the least accurate results. An additional advantage of the LM-NS method is to avoid the numerical problems (e.g., convergence problems) that may occur with the ML method when estimating parameters for small data samples.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of the extreme precipitation by L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun; Sun, Shanlei

2016-05-01

The regionalization methods, which "trade space for time" by pooling information from different locations in the frequency analysis, are efficient tools to enhance the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. This paper aims at improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation by using regionalization methods, and providing scientific background and practical assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region. To achieve the main goals, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the most popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation with special attention paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which has not been considered by most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence, and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, generalized extreme-value (GEV) and generalized normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best fitted distributions for most of the sub-regions, and estimated quantiles for each region were obtained. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90 % error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those without inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with a return period of 100 years were finally obtained which indicated that there are two regions with highest precipitation extremes and a large region with low precipitation extremes. However, the regions with low precipitation extremes are the most developed and densely populated regions of the country, and floods will cause great loss of human life and property damage due to the high vulnerability. The study methods and procedure demonstrated in this paper will provide useful reference for frequency analysis of precipitation extremes in large regions, and the findings of the paper will be beneficial in flood control and management in the study area.

The National Flood Frequency Program, version 3 : a computer program for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries, Kernell G.; Crouse, Michele Y.

2002-01-01

For many years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations for estimating flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. These regression equations are used to transfer flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, these equations have been developed on a Statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs with specific State Departments of Transportation. In 1994, the USGS released a computer program titled the National Flood Frequency Program (NFF), which compiled all the USGS available regression equations for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States and Puerto Rico. NFF was developed in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Since the initial release of NFF, the USGS has produced new equations for many areas of the Nation. A new version of NFF has been developed that incorporates these new equations and provides additional functionality and ease of use. NFF version 3 provides regression-equation estimates of flood-peak discharges for unregulated rural and urban watersheds, flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals. The Program also provides weighting techniques to improve estimates of flood-peak discharges for gaging stations and ungaged sites. The information provided by NFF should be useful to engineers and hydrologists for planning and design applications. This report describes the flood-regionalization techniques used in NFF and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The NFF software and the documentation for the regression equations included in NFF are available at http://water.usgs.gov/software/nff.html.

A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

2018-02-01

Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

PubMed Central

Hirsch, R. M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2016-01-01

Abstract Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large‐scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States. PMID:27917010

Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Archfield, Stacey A.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Viglione, A.; Blöschl, G.

2016-01-01

Trends in the peak magnitude, frequency, duration, and volume of frequent floods (floods occurring at an average of two events per year relative to a base period) across the United States show large changes; however, few trends are found to be statistically significant. The multidimensional behavior of flood change across the United States can be described by four distinct groups, with streamgages experiencing (1) minimal change, (2) increasing frequency, (3) decreasing frequency, or (4) increases in all flood properties. Yet group membership shows only weak geographic cohesion. Lack of geographic cohesion is further demonstrated by weak correlations between the temporal patterns of flood change and large-scale climate indices. These findings reveal a complex, fragmented pattern of flood change that, therefore, clouds the ability to make meaningful generalizations about flood change across the United States.

Evaluation of the best fit distribution for partial duration series of daily rainfall in Madinah, western Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alahmadi, F.; Rahman, N. A.; Abdulrazzak, M.

2014-09-01

Rainfall frequency analysis is an essential tool for the design of water related infrastructure. It can be used to predict future flood magnitudes for a given magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. This study analyses the application of rainfall partial duration series (PDS) in the vast growing urban Madinah city located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Different statistical distributions were applied (i.e. Normal, Log Normal, Extreme Value type I, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type III, Log Pearson Type III) and their distribution parameters were estimated using L-moments methods. Also, different selection criteria models are applied, e.g. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC). The analysis indicated the advantage of Generalized Extreme Value as the best fit statistical distribution for Madinah partial duration daily rainfall series. The outcome of such an evaluation can contribute toward better design criteria for flood management, especially flood protection measures.

A new concept to study the effect of climate change on different flood types

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nissen, Katrin; Nied, Manuela; Pardowitz, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

Flooding is triggered by the interaction of various processes. Especially important are the hydrological conditions prior to the event (e.g. soil saturation, snow cover) and the meteorological conditions during flood development (e.g. rainfall, temperature). Depending on these (pre-) conditions different flood types may develop such as long-rain floods, short-rain floods, flash floods, snowmelt floods and rain-on-snow floods. A new concept taking these factors into account is introduced and applied to flooding in the Elbe River basin. During the period September 1957 to August 2002, 82 flood events are identified and classified according to their flood type. The hydrological and meteorological conditions at each day during the analysis period are detemined. In case of the hydrological conditions, a soil moisture pattern classification is carried out. Soil moisture is simulated with a rainfall-runoff model driven by atmospheric observations. Days of similar soil moisture patterns are identified by a principle component analysis and a subsequent cluster analysis on the leading principal components. The meteorological conditions are identified by applying a cluster analysis to the geopotential height, temperature and humidity fields of the ERA40 reanalysis data set using the SANDRA cluster algorithm. We are able to identify specific pattern combinations of hydrological pre-conditions and meteorological conditions which favour different flood types. Based on these results it is possible to analyse the effect of climate change on different flood types. As an example we show first results obtained using an ensemble of climate scenario simulations of ECHAM5 MPIOM model, taking only the changes in the meteorological conditions into account. According to the simulations, the frequency of the meteorological patterns favouring long-rain, short-rain and flash floods will not change significantly under future climate conditions. A significant increase is, however, predicted for the amount of precipitation associated with many of the relevant meteorological patterns. The increase varies between 12 and 67% depending on the weather pattern.

Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

PubMed

Reed, Duncan W

2002-07-15

Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin?

Socio-economic Impact Analysis for Near Real-Time Flood Detection in the Lower Mekong River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oddo, P.; Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

2017-12-01

Flood events pose a severe threat to communities in the Lower Mekong River Basin. The combination of population growth, urbanization, and economic development exacerbate the impacts of these flood events. Flood damage assessments are frequently used to quantify the economic losses in the wake of storms. These assessments are critical for understanding the effects of flooding on the local population, and for informing decision-makers about future risks. Remote sensing systems provide a valuable tool for monitoring flood conditions and assessing their severity more rapidly than traditional post-event evaluations. The frequency and severity of extreme flood events are projected to increase, further illustrating the need for improved flood monitoring and impact analysis. In this study we implement a socio-economic damage model into a decision support tool with near real-time flood detection capabilities (NASA's Project Mekong). Surface water extent for current and historical floods is found using multispectral Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-meter imagery and the spectral Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signatures of permanent water bodies (MOD44W). Direct and indirect damages to populations, infrastructure, and agriculture are assessed using the 2011 Southeast Asian flood as a case study. Improved land cover and flood depth assessments result in a more refined understanding of losses throughout the Mekong River Basin. Results suggest that rapid initial estimates of flood impacts can provide valuable information to governments, international agencies, and disaster responders in the wake of extreme flood events.

Analysis of economic vulnerability to flash floods in urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; García, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-04-01

The growth of exposed population to floods, the expansion in allocation of economical activities to flood-prone areas and the rise of extraordinary event frequency over the last few decades, have resulted in an increase of flash flood-related casualties and economic losses. The increase in these losses at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Vulnerability is defined as the conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. In recent years, numerous papers have deal with the assessment of the social dimension of vulnerability. However, economic factors are often a neglected aspect in traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on structural measures and flood damage models. In this context, the aim of this research is to identify those economic characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazard, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is an Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Cluster Analysis of economic information provided by different public institutional databases. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2), placed in Central-Northern Spain. Townships included in this study meet two requirements: i) urban areas are potentially affected by flash floods (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1); ii) urban areas are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability of flooding (as provided by Directive 2007/60/EC of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks) according with the preliminary assessment of flood risk made by water authorities.

Precipitation-runoff, suspended-sediment, and flood-frequency characteristics for urbanized areas of Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brabets, Timothy P.

1999-01-01

The developed part of Elmendorf Air Force Base near Anchorage, Alaska, consists of two basins with drainage areas of 4.0 and 0.64 square miles, respectively. Runoff and suspended-sediment data were collected from August 1996 to March 1998 to gain a basic understanding of the surface-water hydrology of these areas and to estimate flood-frequency characteristics. Runoff from the larger basin averaged 6 percent of rainfall, whereas runoff from the smaller basin averaged 13 percent of rainfall. During rainfall periods, the suspended-sediment load transported from the larger watershed ranged from 179 to 21,000 pounds and that from the smaller watershed ranged from 23 to 18,200 pounds. On a yield basis, suspended sediment from the larger watershed was 78 pounds per inch of runoff and from the smaller basin was 100 pounds per inch of runoff. Suspended-sediment loads and yields were generally lower during snowmelt periods than during rainfall periods. At each outfall of the two watersheds, water flows into steep natural channels. Suspended-sediment loads measured approximately 1,000 feet downstream from the outfalls during rainfall periods ranged from 8,450 to 530,000 pounds. On a yield basis, suspended sediment averaged 705 pounds per inch of runoff, more than three times as much as the combined sediment yield from the two watersheds. The increase in suspended sediment is most likely due to natural erosion of the streambanks. Streamflow data, collected in 1996 and 1997, were used to calibrate and verify a U.S. Geological Survey computer model?the Distributed Routing Rainfall Runoff Model-Version II (DR3M-II). The model was then used to simulate annual peak discharges and runoff volumes for 1981 to 1995 using historical rainfall records. Because the model indicated that surcharging (or ponding) would occur, no flood-frequency analysis was done for peak discharges. A flood-frequency analysis of flood volumes indicated that a 10-year flood would result in 0.39 inch of runoff (averaged over the entire drainage basin) from the larger watershed and 1.1 inches of runoff from the smaller watershed.

Real-time updating of the flood frequency distribution through data assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilar, Cristina; Montanari, Alberto; Polo, María-José

2017-07-01

We explore the memory properties of catchments for predicting the likelihood of floods based on observations of average flows in pre-flood seasons. Our approach assumes that flood formation is driven by the superimposition of short- and long-term perturbations. The former is given by the short-term meteorological forcing leading to infiltration and/or saturation excess, while the latter is originated by higher-than-usual storage in the catchment. To exploit the above sensitivity to long-term perturbations, a meta-Gaussian model and a data assimilation approach are implemented for updating the flood frequency distribution a season in advance. Accordingly, the peak flow in the flood season is predicted in probabilistic terms by exploiting its dependence on the average flow in the antecedent seasons. We focus on the Po River at Pontelagoscuro and the Danube River at Bratislava. We found that the shape of the flood frequency distribution is noticeably impacted by higher-than-usual flows occurring up to several months earlier. The proposed technique may allow one to reduce the uncertainty associated with the estimation of flood frequency.

Backwater at bridges and densely wooded flood plains, west fork Amite River near Liberty, Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colson, B.E.; Ming, C.O.; Arcement, George J.

1979-01-01

Floodflow data that will provide a base for evaluating digital models relating to open-channel flow were obtained at 22 sites on streams in Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Thirty-five floods were measured. Analysis of the data indicated methods currently in use would be inaccurate where densely vegetated flood plains are crossed by highway embankments and single-opening bridges. This atlas presents flood information at the site on West Fork Amite River near Liberty, MS. Water depths , velocities, and discharges through bridge openings on West Fork Amite River near Liberty, MS for floods of December 6, 1971 , and March 25, 1973, are shown, together with peak water-surface elevations along embankments and along cross sections. Manning 's roughness coefficient values in different parts of the flood plain are shown on maps, and flood-frequency relations are shown on a graph. (USGS).

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

2015-08-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

On the suitability of the copula types for the joint modelling of flood peaks and volumes along the Danube River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohnová, Silvia; Papaioannou, George; Bacigál, Tomáš; Szolgay, Ján; Hlavčová, Kamila; Loukas, Athanasios; Výleta, Roman

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is often performed as a univariate analysis of flood peaks using a suitable theoretical probability distribution of the annual maximum flood peaks or peak over threshold values. However, also other flood attributes, such as flood volume and duration, are often necessary for the design of hydrotechnical structures and projects. In this study, the suitability of various copula families for a bivariate analysis of peak discharges and flood volumes has been tested on the streamflow data from gauging stations along the whole Danube River. Kendall's rank correlation coefficient (tau) quantifies the dependence between flood peak discharge and flood volume settings. The methodology is tested on two different data samples: 1) annual maximum flood (AMF) peaks with corresponding flood volumes, which is a typical choice for engineering studies and 2). annual maximum flood (AMF) peaks combined with annual maximum flow volumes of fixed durations at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 60 days, which can be regarded as a regime analysis of the dependence between the extremes of both variables in a given year. The bivariate modelling of the peak discharge - flood volume couples is achieved with the use of the the following copulas: Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Clayton, Frank, Joe, Gumbel, HuslerReiss, Galambos, Tawn, Normal, Plackett and FGM, respectively. Scatterplots of the observed and simulated peak discharge - flood volume pairs and goodness-of-fit tests have been used to assess the overall applicability of the copulas as well as observing any changes in suitable models along the Danube River. The results indicate that, almost all of the considered Archimedean class copulas (e.g. Frank, Clayton and Ali-Mikhail-Haq) perform better than the other copula families selected for this study, and that for the second data samples mostly the upper-tail-flat copulas were suitable.

Comparison of methods for estimating flood magnitudes on small streams in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Glen W.; Price, McGlone

1989-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has collected flood data for small, natural streams at many sites throughout Georgia during the past 20 years. Flood-frequency relations were developed for these data using four methods: (1) observed (log-Pearson Type III analysis) data, (2) rainfall-runoff model, (3) regional regression equations, and (4) map-model combination. The results of the latter three methods were compared to the analyses of the observed data in order to quantify the differences in the methods and determine if the differences are statistically significant.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States, Part 1-B, North Atlantic slope basins, New York to York River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tice, Richard H.

1968-01-01

Flood magnitude-frequency relation applicable to streams in the North Atlantic slope basins, New York to York River, Va., are presented in this report.  The relations are based on flood data collected at 487 gaging stations having 5 or more years of record not materially affected by regulation. For sites on most streams, the magnitude of a flood of any given frequency between 1.1 and 50 years can be determined from two curves - one expressing the relation between the mean annual flood and size of draining basin and the other expressing the ratio to the mean annual flood of floods of other recurrence intervals. For New Jersey streams, an adjustment to the mean annual flood is based on the percentage of surface area covered by lakes and swamps in the basin.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States, Part 3-A, Ohio River Basin except Cumberland and Tennessee River Basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Speer, Paul R.; Gamble, Charles R.

1965-01-01

This report presents a means of determining the probable magnitude and frequency of floods of any recurrence interval from 1.1 to 50 years at most points on streams in the Ohio River basin except Cumberland and Tennessee River basins. Curves are defined that show the relation between the drainage area and the mean annual flood in eight hydrologic areas, and composite frequency curves define the relation of a flood of any recurrence interval from 1.1 to 50 years to the mean annual flood. These two relations are based upon gaging-station records having 10 or more years of record not materially affected by storage or diversion, and the results obtainable from them will represent the magnitude and frequency of natural floods within the range and recurrence intervals defined by the base data. The report also contains a compilation of flood records at all sites in the area at which records have been collected for 5 or more consecutive years. As far as was possible at each location for which discharge has been determined, the tabulations include all floods above a selected base. Where only gage heights have been obtained or where the data did not warrant computation of peach discharges above a selected base, only annual peaks are shown. The maximum known flood discharges for the streamflow stations and miscellaneous points except Ohio River main stem stations, together with areal floods of 10- and 50-year recurrence intervals, are plotted against the size of drainage area for each flood region and hydrologic area to provide a convenient means of judging the frequency of the maximum known floods that have been recorded for these points.

Techniques for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods on streams in Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glatfelter, D.R.

1984-01-01

A rainfall-runoff model was tlsed to synthesize long-term peak data at 11 gaged locations on small streams. Flood-frequency curves developed from the long-term synthetic data were combined with curves based on short-term observed data to provide weighted estimates of flood magnitude and frequency at the rainfall-runoff stations.

Regional flood-frequency relations for streams with many years of no flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hjalmarson, Hjalmar W.; Thomas, Blakemore E.; ,

1990-01-01

In the southwestern United States, flood-frequency relations for streams that drain small arid basins are difficult to estimate, largely because of the extreme temporal and spatial variability of floods and the many years of no flow. A method is proposed that is based on the station-year method. The new method produces regional flood-frequency relations using all available annual peak-discharge data. The prediction errors for the relations are directly assessed using randomly selected subsamples of the annual peak discharges.

Distribution of uncertainties at the municipality level for flood risk modelling along the river Meuse: implications for policy-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirotton, Michel; Stilmant, Frédéric; Erpicum, Sébastien; Dewals, Benjamin; Archambeau, Pierre

2016-04-01

Flood risk modelling has been conducted for the whole course of the river Meuse in Belgium. Major cities, such as Liege (200,000 inh.) and Namur (110,000 inh.), are located in the floodplains of river Meuse. Particular attention has been paid to uncertainty analysis and its implications for decision-making. The modelling chain contains flood frequency analysis, detailed 2D hydraulic computations, damage modelling and risk calculation. The relative importance of each source of uncertainty to the overall results uncertainty has been estimated by considering several alternate options for each step of the analysis: different distributions were considered in the flood frequency analysis; the influence of modelling assumptions and boundary conditions (e.g., steady vs. unsteady) were taken into account for the hydraulic computation; two different landuse classifications and two sets of damage functions were used; the number of exceedance probabilities involved in the risk calculation (by integration of the risk-curves) was varied. In addition, the sensitivity of the results with respect to increases in flood discharges was assessed. The considered increases are consistent with a "wet" climate change scenario for the time horizons 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (Detrembleur et al., 2015). The results of hazard computation differ significantly between the upper and lower parts of the course of river Meuse in Belgium. In the former, inundation extents grow gradually as the considered flood discharge is increased (i.e. the exceedance probability is reduced), while in the downstream part, protection structures (mainly concrete walls) prevent inundation for flood discharges corresponding to exceedance probabilities of 0.01 and above (in the present climate). For higher discharges, large inundation extents are obtained in the floodplains. The highest values of risk (mean annual damage) are obtained in the municipalities which undergo relatively frequent flooding (upper part of the river), as well as in those of the downstream part of the Meuse in which flow depths in the urbanized floodplains are particularly high when inundation occurs. This is the case of the city of Liege, as a result of a subsidence process following former mining activities. For a given climate scenario, the uncertainty ranges affecting flood risk estimates are significant; but not so much that the results for the different municipalities would overlap substantially. Therefore, these uncertainties do not hamper prioritization in terms of allocation of risk reduction measures at the municipality level. In the present climate, the uncertainties arising from flood frequency analysis have a negligible influence in the upper part of the river, while they have a considerable impact on risk modelling in the lower part, where a threshold effect was observed due to the flood protection structures (sudden transition from no inundation to massive flooding when a threshold discharge is exceeded). Varying the number of exceedance probabilities in the integration of the risk curve has different effects for different municipalities; but it does not change the ranking of the municipalities in terms of flood risk. For the other scenarios, damage estimation contributes most to the overall uncertainties. As shown by this study, the magnitude of the uncertainty and its main origin vary in space and in time. This emphasizes the paramount importance of conducting distributed uncertainty analyses. In the considered study area, prioritization of risk reduction means can be reliably performed despite the modelling uncertainties. Reference Detrembleur, S., Stilmant, F., Dewals, B., Erpicum, S., Archambeau, P., & Pirotton, M. (2015). Impacts of climate change on future flood damage on the river Meuse, with a distributed uncertainty analysis. Natural Hazards, 77(3), 1533-1549. Acknowledgement Part of this research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation. It was also supported by the NWE Interreg IVB Program.

Analysis of institutional mechanisms that support community response to impacts of floods in the middle-zambezi river basin, Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhonda, P.; Mabiza, C.; Makurira, H.; Kujinga, K.; Nhapi, I.; Goldin, J.; Mashauri, D. A.

In recent years, the frequency of occurrence of floods has increased in Southern Africa. An increase in the frequency of extreme events is partly attributed to climate change. Floods negatively impact on livelihoods, especially those classified as poor, mainly by reducing livelihood options and also contributing to reduced crop yields. In response to these climatic events, governments within Southern Africa have formulated policies which try to mitigate the impacts of floods. Floods can be deadly, often occurring at short notice, lasting for short periods, and causing widespread damage to infrastructure. This study analysed institutional mechanisms in Mbire District of Zimbabwe which aim at mitigating the impact of floods. The study used both quantitative (i.e. questionnaires) and qualitative (i.e. key informant interviews, focus group discussions and observations) data collection methods. Secondary data such as policy and legislation documents and operational manuals of organisations that support communities affected by disasters were reviewed. Qualitative data was analysed using the thematic approach and social network analysis using UCINET 6. Quantitative data were analysed using SPSS 19.0. The study found out that there exists institutional framework that has been developed at the national and local level to support communities in the study area in response to the impacts of floods. This is supported by various pieces of legislation that are housed in different government departments. However, the existing institutional framework does not effectively strengthen disaster management mechanisms at the local level. Lack of financial resources and appropriate training and skills to undertake flood management activities reduce the capacity of communities and disaster management organisations to effectively mitigate the impacts of floods. The study also found that there are inadequate hydro-meteorological stations to enable accurate forecasts. Even in those cases where forecasts predicting extreme weather events have been made, communities have difficulties accessing and interpreting such forecasts due to inadequate communication systems. Such factors reduce the preparedness of communities to deal with extreme weather events.

Implications of flood pulse restoration for Populus regeneration on the upper Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bovee, Ken D.; Scott, Michael L.

2002-01-01

We developed a mass balance flow model to reconstruct unregulated daily peak flows in the National Wild and Scenic reach of the Missouri River, Montana. Results indicated that although the observed frequency of large peak flows has not changed in the post-dam period, their magnitude has been reduced from 40 to 50% as a consequence of flow regulation. Reductions in the magnitude of these flows should reduce the expected frequency of large flood-pulses over a longer time-scale. Results of a two-dimensional hydraulic model indicated that limited cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp. Monilifera) recruitment occurs at relatively small peak discharges, but to maximize establishment of cottonwoods in the Wild and Scenic reach, a threshold of 1850 m3/s would be necessary at the Virgelle gauge. Floods of this magnitude or greater lead to establishment of cottonwood seedlings above the zone of frequent ice-drive disturbance. Restoring the frequency, magnitude, duration and timing of these flood pulses would benefit important natural resource values including riparian cottonwood forests and native fish species in the upper Missouri River basin. However, efforts to naturalize flow must be made in the context of a water management system that was authorized and constructed for the primary purposes of flood control, power generation and irrigation. Using the synthesized flow model and flood damage curves, we examined six scenarios for delivering flows ≥1850 m3/s to the Wild and Scenic reach. Whereas some scenarios appeared to be politically and economically infeasible, our analysis suggested that there is enough operational flexibility in the system to restore more natural flood pulses without greatly compromising other values.

Fate and Transport of Cohesive Sediment and HCB in the Middle Elbe River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moshenberg, Kari; Heise, Susanne; Calmano, Wolfgang

2014-05-01

Chemical contamination of waterways and floodplains is a pervasive environmental problem that threatens aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Due to extensive historical contamination and redistribution of contaminated sediments throughout the basin, the Elbe River transports significant loads of contaminants downstream, particularly during flood events. This study focuses on Hexachlorobenzene (HCB), a persistent organic pollutant that has been identified as a contaminant of concern in the Elbe Basin. To better understand the fate and transport of cohesive sediments and sediment-sorbed HCB, a hydrodynamic, suspended sediment, and contaminated transport model for the 271-km reach of the Elbe River basin between Dresden and Magdeburg was developed. Additionally, trends in suspended sediment and contaminant transport were investigated in the context of the recent high frequency of floods in the Elbe Basin. This study presents strong evidence that extreme high water events, such as the August, 2002 floods, have a permanent effect on the sediment transport regime in the Elbe River. Additionally, results indicate that a significant component annual HCB loads are transported downstream during floods. Additionally, modeled results for suspended sediment and HCB accumulation on floodplains are presented and discussed. Uncertainty and issues related to model development are also addressed. A worst case analysis of HCB uptake by dairy cows and beef cattle indicate that significant, biologically relevant quantities of sediment-sorbed HCB accumulate on the Elbe floodplains following flood events. Given both the recent high frequency of floods in the Elbe Basin, and the potential increase in flood frequency due to climate change, an evaluation of source control measures and/or additional monitoring of floodplain soils and grasses is recommended.

Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

2017-11-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2017-01-01

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Assessing the impact of climate change on flood types in the Austrian and French Alps using the stochastic weather generator TripleM and rainfall-runoff modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breinl, Korbinian; Turkington, Thea

2017-04-01

We developed a new methodology for classifying flood types, which appears to be particularly suitable for climate change impact studies. Climate change is not only expected to change the magnitude and frequency of Alpine floods but also the types of floods. The distribution of existing flood types may change and new flood types may develop. A shift away from solely focusing on the magnitude and frequency of floods in flood hazard assessment and disaster risk management towards the causal types of floods is required as the types and therefore also timing and characteristics of floods will have implications on both the local social and ecological systems. The flood types are classified using k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation indicators, capturing differences in rainfall amounts, antecedent rainfall, snow-cover, and the day of the year. In a first step, we used the open-source multi-site weather generator TripleM coupled with the fast conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV to extrapolate the observed discharge time series and generate a large inventory of different types of observed flood events and flood types. The weather generator was then parameterized based on projections of rainfall and temperature to simulate future flood types and events. We selected four climate projections (mild dry, mild wet, warm dry and warm wet conditions) from a set of 15, which originated from the EURO-CORDEX dataset. We worked in two catchments in the Austrian and French Alps that have been affected by floods in the past: the medium-sized Salzach catchment in Austria, which is dominated by rainfall driven flooding during the summer and autumn period, and the small Ubaye catchment in the Southern French Alps, which is dominated by rain-on-snow floods in the spring period. The analysis of the simulated future flood types shows clear changes in the distribution and characteristics of flood types in both study areas under the different climate projections examined.

Flooding Frequency Alters Vegetation in Isolated Wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haag, Kim H.; Lee, Terrie M.

2006-01-01

Many isolated wetlands in central Florida occur as small, shallow depressions scattered throughout the karst topography of the region. In these wetlands, the water table approaches land surface seasonally, and water levels and flooding frequency are largely determined by differences between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Because much of the region is flat with little topographic relief, small changes in wetland water levels can cause large changes in wetland surface area. Persistent changes in wetland flooding frequencies, as a result of changes in rainfall or human activity, can cause a substantial change in the vegetation of thousands of acres of land. Understanding the effect that flooding frequency has on wetland vegetation is important to assessing the overall ecological status of wetlands. Wetland bathymetric mapping, when combined with water-level data and vegetation assessments, can enable scientists to determine the frequency of flooding at different elevations in a wetland and describe the effects of flooding frequency on wetland vegetation at those elevations. Five cypress swamps and five marshes were studied by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) during 2000-2004, as part of an interdisciplinary study of isolated wetlands in central Florida (Haag and others, 2005). Partial results from two of these marshes are described in this report.

Urban Flood Management with Integrated Inland-River System in Seoul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Y. I.; Kim, J. S.; Yuk, J. M.

2015-12-01

Global warming and climate change have caused significant damage and loss of life worldwide. The pattern of natural disasters has gradually diversified and their frequency is increasing. The impact of climate change on flood risk in urban rivers is of particular interest because these areas are typically densely populated. The occurrence of urban river flooding due to climate change not only causes significant loss of life and property but also causes health and social problems. It is therefore necessary to develop a scientific urban flood management system to cope with and reduce the impacts of climate change, including flood damage. In this study, we are going to introduce Integrated Inland-River Flood Analysis System in Seoul to conduct predictions on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and perform prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded areas. In addition, this urban flood management system can be used as a tool for decision making of systematic disaster prevention through real-time monitoring.

Detection of Flooding Responses at the River Basin Scale Enhanced by Land use Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCormick, Brian C.; Eshleman, Keith N.; Griffith, Jeff L.; Townsend, Philip A.

2009-01-01

The Georges Creek watershed (area 187.5 sq km) in western Maryland (United States) has experienced land use changes (>17% of area) associated with surface mining of coal. The adjacent Savage River watershed (area 127.2 sq km) is unmined. Moments of flood frequency distributions indicated that climatic variability affected both watersheds similarly. Normalizing annual maximum flows by antecedent streamflow and causative precipitation helped identify trends in flooding response. Analysis of contemporary storm events using Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) stage III precipitation data showed that Georges Creek floods are characterized by higher peak runoff and a shorter centroid lag than Savage River floods, likely attributable to differences in current land use. Interestingly, Georges Creek produces only two thirds of the storm-flow volume as Savage River, apparently because of infiltration into abandoned deep mine workings and an associated transbasin diversion constructed circa 1900. Empirical trend analysis is thus complicated by both hydroclimatic variability and the legacy of deep mining in the basin.

Analyses of flood-flow frequency for selected gaging stations in South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benson, R.D.; Hoffman, E.B.; Wipf, V.J.

1985-01-01

Analyses of flood flow frequency were made for 111 continuous-record gaging stations in South Dakota with 10 or more years of record. The analyses were developed using the log-Pearson Type III procedure recommended by the U.S. Water Resources Council. The procedure characterizes flood occurrence at a single site as a sequence of annual peak flows. The magnitudes of the annual peak flows are assumed to be independent random variables following a log-Pearson Type III probability distribution, which defines the probability that any single annual peak flow will exceed a specified discharge. By considering only annual peak flows, the flood-frequency analysis becomes the estimation of the log-Pearson annual-probability curve using the record of annual peak flows at the site. The recorded data are divided into two classes: systematic and historic. The systematic record includes all annual peak flows determined in the process of conducting a systematic gaging program at a site. In this program, the annual peak flow is determined for each and every year of the program. The systematic record is intended to constitute an unbiased and representative sample of the population of all possible annual peak flows at the site. In contrast to the systematic record, the historic record consists of annual peak flows that would not have been determined except for evidence indicating their unusual magnitude. Flood information acquired from historical sources almost invariably refers to floods of noteworthy, and hence extraordinary, size. Although historic records form a biased and unrepresentative sample, they can be used to supplement the systematic record. (Author 's abstract)

Technical note: Design flood under hydrological uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botto, Anna; Ganora, Daniele; Claps, Pierluigi; Laio, Francesco

2017-07-01

Planning and verification of hydraulic infrastructures require a design estimate of hydrologic variables, usually provided by frequency analysis, and neglecting hydrologic uncertainty. However, when hydrologic uncertainty is accounted for, the design flood value for a specific return period is no longer a unique value, but is represented by a distribution of values. As a consequence, the design flood is no longer univocally defined, making the design process undetermined. The Uncertainty Compliant Design Flood Estimation (UNCODE) procedure is a novel approach that, starting from a range of possible design flood estimates obtained in uncertain conditions, converges to a single design value. This is obtained through a cost-benefit criterion with additional constraints that is numerically solved in a simulation framework. This paper contributes to promoting a practical use of the UNCODE procedure without resorting to numerical computation. A modified procedure is proposed by using a correction coefficient that modifies the standard (i.e., uncertainty-free) design value on the basis of sample length and return period only. The procedure is robust and parsimonious, as it does not require additional parameters with respect to the traditional uncertainty-free analysis. Simple equations to compute the correction term are provided for a number of probability distributions commonly used to represent the flood frequency curve. The UNCODE procedure, when coupled with this simple correction factor, provides a robust way to manage the hydrologic uncertainty and to go beyond the use of traditional safety factors. With all the other parameters being equal, an increase in the sample length reduces the correction factor, and thus the construction costs, while still keeping the same safety level.

On identifying relationships between the flood scaling exponent and basin attributes.

PubMed

Medhi, Hemanta; Tripathi, Shivam

2015-07-01

Floods are known to exhibit self-similarity and follow scaling laws that form the basis of regional flood frequency analysis. However, the relationship between basin attributes and the scaling behavior of floods is still not fully understood. Identifying these relationships is essential for drawing connections between hydrological processes in a basin and the flood response of the basin. The existing studies mostly rely on simulation models to draw these connections. This paper proposes a new methodology that draws connections between basin attributes and the flood scaling exponents by using observed data. In the proposed methodology, region-of-influence approach is used to delineate homogeneous regions for each gaging station. Ordinary least squares regression is then applied to estimate flood scaling exponents for each homogeneous region, and finally stepwise regression is used to identify basin attributes that affect flood scaling exponents. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is tested by applying it to data from river basins in the United States. The results suggest that flood scaling exponent is small for regions having (i) large abstractions from precipitation in the form of large soil moisture storages and high evapotranspiration losses, and (ii) large fractions of overland flow compared to base flow, i.e., regions having fast-responding basins. Analysis of simple scaling and multiscaling of floods showed evidence of simple scaling for regions in which the snowfall dominates the total precipitation.

A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

2017-12-01

There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

HydroApps: An R package for statistical simulation to use in regional analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, D.

2013-12-01

The HydroApps package is a newborn R extension initially developed to support the use of a recent model for flood frequency estimation developed for applications in Northwestern Italy; it also contains some general tools for regional analyses and can be easily extended to include other statistical models. The package is currently at an experimental level of development. The HydroApps is a corollary of the SSEM project for regional flood frequency analysis, although it was developed independently to support various instances of regional analyses. Its aim is to provide a basis for interplay between statistical simulation and practical operational use. In particular, the main module of the package deals with the building of the confidence bands of flood frequency curves expressed by means of their L-moments. Other functions include pre-processing and visualization of hydrologic time series, analysis of the optimal design-flood under uncertainty, but also tools useful in water resources management for the estimation of flow duration curves and their sensitivity to water withdrawals. Particular attention is devoted to the code granularity, i.e. the level of detail and aggregation of the code: a greater detail means more low-level functions, which entails more flexibility but reduces the ease of use for practical use. A balance between detail and simplicity is necessary and can be resolved with appropriate wrapping functions and specific help pages for each working block. From a more general viewpoint, the package has not really and user-friendly interface, but runs on multiple operating systems and it's easy to update, as many other open-source projects., The HydroApps functions and their features are reported in order to share ideas and materials to improve the ';technological' and information transfer between scientist communities and final users like policy makers.

Vulnerability Assessment Using LIDAR Data in Silang-Sta Rosa Subwatershed, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bragais, M. A.; Magcale-Macandog, D. B.; Arizapa, J. L.; Manalo, K. M.

2016-10-01

Silang-Sta. Rosa Subwatershed is experiencing rapid urbanization. Its downstream area is already urbanized and the development is moving fast upstream. With the rapid land conversion of pervious to impervious areas and increase frequency of intense rainfall events, the downstream of the watershed is at risk of flood hazard. The widely used freeware HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center- River Analysis System) model was used to implement the 2D unsteady flow analysis to develop a flood hazard map. The LiDAR derived digital elevation model (DEM) with 1m resolution provided detailed terrain that is vital for producing reliable flood extent map that can be used for early warning system. With the detailed information from the simulation like areas to be flooded, the predicted depth and duration, we can now provide specific flood forecasting and mitigation plan even at community level. The methodology of using 2D unsteady flow modelling and high resolution DEM in a watershed can be replicated to other neighbouring watersheds specially those areas that are not yet urbanized so that their development will be guided to be flood hazard resilient. LGUs all over the country will benefit from having a high resolution flood hazard map.

Frequency analyses for recent regional floods in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melcher, Nick B.; Martinez, Patsy G.; ,

1996-01-01

During 1993-95, significant floods that resulted in record-high river stages, loss of life, and significant property damage occurred in the United States. The floods were caused by unique global weather patterns that produced large amounts of rain over large areas. Standard methods for flood-frequency analyses may not adequately consider the probability of recurrence of these global weather patterns.

Peak Discharge, Flood Frequency, and Peak Stage of Floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 Near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-12-14

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at ...

Improving techniques to estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on urban streams in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Georgia, 2011 (ver. 1.1, March 2014) : U.S. Geological Survey scientific investigations report 2014-5030.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency : of floods are essential for the design of transportation and : water-conveyance structures, flood-insurance studies, and : flood-plain management. Such estimates are particularly : important in dens...

U.S./China Bilateral Symposium on Extraordinary Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, W.

Accurate appraisal of the risk of extreme floods has long been of concern to hydrologists and water resources managers in both the United States and China. In order to exchange information, assess current developments, and discuss further needs in extreme flood analysis, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Bureau of Hydrology of the Ministry of Water Resources and Electric Power of the People's Republic of China (PRC) held the Bilateral Symposium on the Analysis of Extraordinary Flood Events, October 14-18, 1985, in Nanjing, China. Co-convenors of the symposium were Marshall E. Moss (USGS) and Hua Shiqian (Nanjing Research Institute of Hydrology). Liang Ruiju (East China Technical University of Water Resources) was executive secretary of the organizing committee. Participants included 23 U.S. delegates, 36 Chinese delegates, and five guests from other countries. Of the U.S. delegates, 13 were from federal agencies, seven were from universities, and three were private consultants. The U.S. National Science Foundation gave financial support to the nonfederal U.S. delegates. Major topics covered in the 52 papers presented included detection of historical floods and evaluation of the uncertainties in their peak discharges and times of occurrence,frequency analysis and design flood determination in the presence of extraordinary floods and historic floods, anduse of storm data in determining design storms and design floods, The symposium was followed by a 6-day study tour in central China, during which laboratories, field activities, and offices of various water resources agencies were visited and sites of documented historic floods on the Yangtze River and its tributaries were examined.

Sea level variability influencing coastal flooding in the Swan River region, Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliot, Matt

2012-02-01

Coastal flooding refers to the incidence of high water levels produced by water level fluctuations of marine origin, rather than riverine floods. An understanding of the amplitude and frequency of high water level events is essential to foreshore management and the design of many coastal and estuarine facilities. Coastal flooding events generally determine public perception of sea level phenomena, as they are commonly associated with erosion events. This investigation has explored the nature of coastal flooding events affecting the Swan River Region, Western Australia, considering water level records at four sites in the estuary and lower river, extending from the mouth of the Swan River to 40 km upstream. The analysis examined the significance of tides, storms and mean sea level fluctuations over both seasonal and inter-annual time scales. The relative timing of these processes is significant for the enhanced or reduced frequency of coastal flooding. These variations overlie net sea level rise previously reported from the coastal Fremantle record, which is further supported by changes to the distribution of high water level events at an estuarine tidal station. Seasonally, coastal flooding events observed in the Swan River region are largely restricted to the period from May to July due to the relative phases of the annual mean sea fluctuation and biannual tidal cycle. Although significant storm surge events occur outside this period, their impact is normally reduced, as they are superimposed on lower tidal and mean sea level conditions. Over inter-annual time scales tide, storminess and mean sea level produce cycles of enhanced and depressed frequency of coastal flooding. For the Swan River region, the inter-annual tidal variation is regular, dominated by the 18.6 year lunar nodal cycle. Storminess and mean sea level variations are independent and irregular, with cycles from 3 to 10 year duration. Since 1960, these fluctuations have not occurred in phase, suggesting that recent historic records may not provide a real indication of inundation risk, exclusive of factors linked to climate change. The burst-like nature of coastal flooding incidents, with respect to frequency, has implications for both public perception and coastal management effort. The result, when combined with sea level rise, produces step-like change, with short periods of frequent coastal flooding, followed by extended, slowly varying quiescent periods. This presents challenges for coastal managers to incorporate variability into projections of future management needs, and to ensure that public and political recognition of coastal flooding hazard is not downplayed during quiet periods.

Hydrological and hydroclimatic regimes in the Ouergha watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Msatef, Karim; Benaabidate, Lahcen; Bouignane, Aziz

2018-05-01

This work consists in studying the hydrological and hydroclimatic regime of the Ouergha watershed and frequency analysis of extreme flows and extreme rainfall for peak estimation and return periods, in order to prevention and forecasting against risks (flood...). Hydrological regime analysis showed a regime of the rain type, characterized by rainfed abundance with very high winter flows, so strong floods. The annual module and the different coefficients show hydroclimatic fluctuations in relation to a semihumid climate. The water balance has highlighted the importance of the volumes of water conveyed upstream than downstream, thus confirming the morphometric parameters of watershed and the lithological nature. Frequency study of flows and extreme rainfall showed that these flows governed by dissymmetrical laws based on methods Gumbel, GEV, Gamma and Log Pearson III.

Varying effects of geomorphic change on floodplain inundation and forest communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keim, R.; Johnson, E. L.; Edwards, B. L.; King, S. L.; Hupp, C. R.

2015-12-01

Overbank flooding in floodplains is an important control on vegetation, but effects of changing flooding are difficult to predict because sensitivities of plant communities to multidimensional flooding (frequency, depth, duration, and timing) are not well understood. We used HEC-RAS to model the changing flooding regime in the lower White River floodplain, Arkansas, in response to rapid incision of the Mississippi River in the 1930s, and quantified flood frequency, depth, and duration by forest community type. Incision has decreased flooding especially in terms of frequency, which is one of the most important variables for ecological processes. Modeled depth-duration curves varied more among floodplain reaches than among forest communities within the same reach, but forest communities are now arranged in accordance with new flood regimes in place after river incision. Forest responses to subtle geomorphic change are slower than other vegetation communities, so detection of the full ramifications of ecohydrologic change may require decades.

Examination of flood characteristics at selected streamgages in the Meramec River Basin, eastern Missouri, December 2015–January 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holmes, Robert R.; Koenig, Todd A.; Rydlund, Jr., Paul H.; Heimann, David C.

2016-09-13

OverviewHeavy rainfall resulted in major flooding in the Meramec River Basin in eastern Missouri during late December 2015 through early January 2016. Cumulative rainfall from December 14 to 29, 2015, ranged from 7.6 to 12.3 inches at selected precipitation stations in the basin with flooding driven by the heaviest precipitation (3.9–9.7 inches) between December 27 and 29, 2015. Financial losses from flooding included damage to homes and other structures, damage to roads, and debris removal. Eight of 11 counties in the basin were declared a Federal Disaster Area.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and St. Louis Metropolitan Sewer District, operates multiple streamgages along the Meramec River and its primary tributaries including the Bourbeuse River and Big River. The period of record for streamflow at streamgages in the basin included in this report ranges from 24 to 102 years. Instrumentation in a streamgage shelter automatically makes observations of stage using a variety of methods (submersible pressure transducer, non-submersible pressure transducer, or non-contact radar). These observations are recorded autonomously at a predetermined programmed frequency (typically either 15 or 30 minutes) dependent on drainage-area size and concomitant flashiness of the stream. Although stage data are important, streamflow data are equally or more important for streamflow forecasting, water-quality constituent loads computation, flood-frequency analysis, and flood mitigation planning. Streamflows are computed from recorded stage data using an empirically determined relation between stage and streamflow termed a “rating.” Development and verification of the rating requires periodic onsite discrete measurements of streamflow throughout time and over the range of stages to define local hydraulic conditions.The purpose of this report is to examine characteristics of flooding that occurred in the Meramec River Basin in December 2015–January 2016 including peak stages, peak streamflows, and the flood-frequency statistics associated with the peak flows. A comparison between the December 2015–January 2016 flood and a similar flood in December 1982 in the Meramec River Basin also is included.

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Flood Frequency Analysis for Transportation Design

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

Planning for construction of roads and bridges over rivers or floodplains includes a hydrologic analysis of rainfall amount and intensity : for a defined period. Infrastructure design must be based on accurate rainfall estimates how much (intensi...

The Sensetivity of Flood Frequency Analysis on Record Length in Continuous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, L.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA), sufficiently long data series are important to get more reliable results. Compared to return periods of interest, at-site FFA usually needs large data sets. Generally, the precision of at site estimators and time-sampling errors are associated with the length of a gauged record. In this work, we quantify the difference with various record lengths. we use generalized extreme value (GEV) and Log Pearson type III (LP3), two traditional methods on annual maximum stream flows to undertake FFA, and propose quantitative ways, relative difference in median and interquartile range (IQR) to compare the flood frequency performances on different record length from selected 350 USGS gauges, which have more than 70 years record length in Continuous United States. Also, we group those gauges into different regions separately based on hydrological unit map and discuss the geometry impacts. The results indicate that long record length can avoid imposing an upper limit on the degree of sophistication. Working with relatively longer record length may lead accurate results than working with shorter record length. Furthermore, the influence of hydrologic unites for the watershed boundary dataset on those gauges also be presented. The California region is the most sensitive to record length, while gauges in the east perform steady.

Future Nuisance Flooding at Boston Caused by Astronomical Tides Alone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.; Foster, Grant

2016-01-01

Sea level rise necessarily triggers more occurrences of minor, or nuisance, flooding events along coastlines, a fact well documented in recent studies. At some locations nuisance flooding can be brought about merely by high spring tides, independent of storms, winds, or other atmospheric conditions. Analysis of observed water levels at Boston indicates that tidal flooding began to occur there in 2011 and will become more frequent in subsequent years. A compilation of all predicted nuisance-flooding events, induced by astronomical tides alone, is presented through year 2050. The accuracy of the tide prediction is improved when several unusual properties of Gulf of Maine tides, including secular changes, are properly accounted for. Future mean sea-level rise at Boston cannot be predicted with comparable confidence, so two very different climate scenarios are adopted; both predict a large increase in the frequency and the magnitude of tidal flooding events.

Thirty Years Later: Reflections of the Big Thompson Flood, Colorado, 1976 to 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarrett, R. D.; Costa, J. E.; Brunstein, F. C.; Quesenberry, C. A.; Vandas, S. J.; Capesius, J. P.; O'Neill, G. B.

2006-12-01

Thirty years ago, over 300 mm of rain fell in about 4 to 6 hours in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin during the devastating flash flood on July 31, 1976. The rainstorm produced flood discharges that exceeded 40 m3/s/km2. A peak discharge of 883 m3/s was estimated at the Big Thompson River near Drake streamflow-gaging station. The raging waters left 144 people dead, 250 injured, and over 800 people were evacuated by helicopter. Four-hundred eighteen homes and businesses were destroyed, as well as 438 automobiles, and damage to infrastructure left the canyon reachable only via helicopter. Total damage was estimated in excess of $116 million (2006 dollars). Natural hazards similar to the Big Thompson flood are rare, but the probability of a similar event hitting the Front Range, other parts of Colorado, or other parts of the Nation is real. Although much smaller in scale than the Big Thompson flood, several flash floods have happened during the monsoon in early July 2006 in the Colorado foothills that reemphasized the hazards associated with flash flooding. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts flood research to help understand and predict the magnitude and likelihood of large streamflow events such as the Big Thompson flood. A summary of hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, what the 1976 flood can teach us about flash floods, a description of some of the advances in USGS flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and lessons that we learned to help reduce loss of life from this extraordinary flash flood are discussed. In the 30 years since the Big Thompson flood, there have been important advances in streamflow monitoring and flood warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) NEXRAD radar allows real-time monitoring of precipitation in most places in the United States. The USGS currently (2006) operates about 7,250 real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the United States that are monitored by the USGS, the NWS, and emergency managers. When substantial flooding occurs, the USGS mobilizes personnel to collect streamflow data in affected areas. Streamflow data improve flood forecasting and provide data for flood-frequency analysis for floodplain management, design of structures located in floodplains, and related water studies. An important lesson learned is that nature provides environmental signs before and during floods that can help people avoid hazard areas. Important contributions to flood science as a result of the 1976 flood include development of paleoflood methods to interpret the preserved flood-plain stratigraphy to document the number, magnitude, and age of floods that occurred prior to streamflow monitoring. These methods and data on large floods can be used in many mountain-river systems to help us better understand flood hazards and plan for the future. For example, according to conventional flood-frequency analysis, the 1976 Big Thompson flood had a flood recurrence interval of about 100 years. However, paleoflood research indicated the 1976 flood was the largest in about the last 10,000 years in the basin and had a flood recurrence interval in excess of 1,000 years.

Future Changes in Autumn Flood Type and Frequency in Pacific Northwest North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Cannon, A. J.; Radic, V.; Moore, R. D.; Dery, S. J.; Jackson, P. L.; Anslow, F. S.

2013-12-01

During the 20th and early 21st century, autumn storms in the Pacific Northwest of North America - PNWNA (coastal British Columbia and Washington) caused widespread flooding and landslides. Understanding how these intense storms are likely to change in the future is important given their potential to harm people and cause widespread damage, but assessing these changes using climate models is difficult. Parameterization of precipitation in general circulation and regional climate models (GCM, RCM) is prone to error, especially in the mountainous terrain of the PNWNA. High computational demands of RCMs also limits their use in assessing changes in flood type and frequency for a suite of GCM and emission scenarios. We instead focus our efforts on understanding atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for historical autumn flooding (15 August - 31 December) and examine how these synoptic conditions are likely to change under future emission scenarios. Our analysis includes identification of extreme events (runoff and precipitation) in streamflow and precipitation records from coastal Washington and British Columbia for the period 1948-2010. Our methods to link the instrumental record of extreme autumn events to atmospheric conditions (500 and 850 hPa geopotential height and integrated vapor transport obtained from NCEP and CFSR reanalysis) include: (1) compositing of streamflow and precipitation events (environment-to-circulation); (2) self organizing map synoptic classification (circulation-to-environment); and (3) regression tree synoptic classification (hybrid of environment-to-circulation and circulation-to-environment). We then evaluate changes in flood-generating synoptic types in the CMIP5 ensemble over the period 2010-2100. Our analysis indicates that, as expected, most floods are associated with atmospheric river events that are commonly associated with upper level, quasi stationary low- and high-pressure systems respectively located in the Gulf of Alaska and east of the PNWNA. Based on our initial analysis of the CMIP5 data, we note an increase in autumn flood-producing synoptic weather types for the PNWNA. We discuss the implications of increased autumn flooding to communities and infrastructure.

Floods on small streams in North Carolina, probable magnitude and frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinson, Herbert G.

1965-01-01

The magnitude and frequency of floods are defined regionally for small streams (drainage area, 1 to 150 sq mi) in North Carolina. Composite frequency curves for each of two regions relate the magnitude of the annual flood, in ratio to the mean annual flood, to recurrence intervals of 1.1 to 50 years. In North Carolina, the mean annual flood (Q2.33) is related to drainage area (A) by the following equation: Q2. 33 = GA0.66, where G, the geographic factor, is the product of a statewide coefficient (US) times a correction which reflects differences in basin characteristics. Isograms of the G factor covering the State are presented.

Hydraulic and hydrologic aspects of flood-plain planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiitala, S.W.; Jetter, K.R.; Sommerville, Alan J.

1961-01-01

The valid incentives compelling occupation of the flood plain, up to and eve n into the stream channel, undoubtedly have contributed greatly to the development of the country. But the result has been a heritage of flood disaster, suffering, and enormous costs. Flood destruction awakened a consciousness toward reduction and elimination of flood hazards, originally manifested in the protection of existing developments. More recently, increased knowledge of the problem has shown the impracticability of permitting development that requires costly flood protect/on. The idea of flood zoning, or flood-plain planning, has received greater impetus as a result of this realization. This study shows how hydraulic and hydrologic data concerning the flood regimen of a stream can be used in appraising its flood potential and the risk inherent in occupation of its flood plain. The approach involves the study of flood magnitudes as recorded or computed; flood frequencies based1 on experience shown by many years of gaging-station record; use of existing or computed stagedischarge relations and flood profiles; and, where required, the preparation of flood-zone maps to show the areas inundated by floods of several magnitudes and frequencies. The planner can delineate areas subject to inundation by floods o* specific recurrence intervals for three conditions: (a) for the immediate vicinity of a gaging station; (b) for a gaged stream at a considerable distance from a gaging station; and (c) for an ungaged stream. The average depth for a flood of specific frequency can be estimated on the basis of simple measurements of area of drainage basin, width of channel, and slope of streambed. This simplified approach should be useful in the initial stages of flood-plain planning. Brief discussions are included on various types of flood hazards, the effects of urbanization on flood runoff, and zoning considerations.

[Effect of flooding time length on mycorrhizal colonization of three AM fungi in two wetland plants].

PubMed

Ma, Lei-Meng; Wang, Peng-Teng; Wang, Shu-Guang

2014-01-01

In order to provide information for elucidating effect of flooding on the formation and function of AM in wetland plants, three AM fungi (Glomus intraradices, Glomus versiforme, Glomus etunicatum) were used to investigate the effects of flooding time length on their colonization in cattail (Typha orientalis) and rice (Oryza sativa L. ). The results showed that the mycorrhizal colonization rate (MCR) presented downtrend with increasing flooding time length. In cattail, MCR of the fungus F3 was higher than those of fungi F1 and F2, but no significant difference in MCR was found between fungi F1 and F2. In rice, the MCRs of fungi F2 and F3 were higher than that of E1. In both plants, the proportional frequency of hyphae was the highest while the proportional frequency of arbuscules and vesicles was very low in all treatments, indicating that hyphal colonization was the main route for AM formation. The proportional frequency of hyphae in cattail increased with the flooding time length, but no significant trend was observed in rice plant. The proportional frequency of arhuscules decreased with the increase of flooding time, and was the highest in the treatment without flooding (treatment IV). The number of spores produced by AM fungi increased with increasing flooding time, and reached the highest in the treatment of long time flooding (treatment I). In the same treatment, the fungus F3 produced more spores than fungi F1 and F2. Changes in wet weight of the two plants showed that AM could increase cattail growth under flooding, hut little effect on rice growth was found. It is concluded that flooding time length significantly affected the mycorrhizal colonization rate and the proportional frequency of colonization. AM could enhance the growth of wetland plant, but this depends on the mycorrhizal dependence of host plant on AM fungi. Therefore, flooding time length should be considered in the inoculation of wetland plants with AM fungi.

Bivariate at-site frequency analysis of simulated flood peak-volume data using copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Viglione, Alberto; Szolgay, Ján.; Blöschl, Günter; Bacigál, Tomáå.¡

2010-05-01

In frequency analysis of joint hydro-climatological extremes (flood peaks and volumes, low flows and durations, etc.), usually, bivariate distribution functions are fitted to the observed data in order to estimate the probability of their occurrence. Bivariate models, however, have a number of limitations; therefore, in the recent past, dependence models based on copulas have gained increased attention to represent the joint probabilities of hydrological characteristics. Regardless of whether standard or copula based bivariate frequency analysis is carried out, one is generally interested in the extremes corresponding to low probabilities of the fitted joint cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). However, usually there is not enough flood data in the right tail of the empirical CDFs to derive reliable statistical inferences on the behaviour of the extremes. Therefore, different techniques are used to extend the amount of information for the statistical inference, i.e., temporal extension methods that allow for making use of historical data or spatial extension methods such as regional approaches. In this study, a different approach was adopted which uses simulated flood data by rainfall-runoff modelling, to increase the amount of data in the right tail of the CDFs. In order to generate artificial runoff data (i.e. to simulate flood records of lengths of approximately 106 years), a two-step procedure was used. (i) First, the stochastic rainfall generator proposed by Sivapalan et al. (2005) was modified for our purpose. This model is based on the assumption of discrete rainfall events whose arrival times, durations, mean rainfall intensity and the within-storm intensity patterns are all random, and can be described by specified distributions. The mean storm rainfall intensity is disaggregated further to hourly intensity patterns. (ii) Secondly, the simulated rainfall data entered a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model that consisted of a snow routine, a soil moisture routine and a flow routing routine (Parajka et al., 2007). The applicability of the proposed method was demonstrated on selected sites in Slovakia and Austria. The pairs of simulated flood volumes and flood peaks were analysed in terms of their dependence structure and different families of copulas (Archimedean, extreme value, Gumbel-Hougaard, etc.) were fitted to the observed and simulated data. The question to what extent measured data can be used to find the right copula was discussed. The study is supported by the Austrian Academy of Sciences and the Austrian-Slovak Co-operation in Science and Education "Aktion". Parajka, J., Merz, R., Blöschl, G., 2007: Uncertainty and multiple objective calibration in regional water balance modeling - Case study in 320 Austrian catchments. Hydrological Processes, 21, 435-446. Sivapalan, M., Blöschl, G., Merz, R., Gutknecht, D., 2005: Linking flood frequency to long-term water balance: incorporating effects of seasonality. Water Resources Research, 41, W06012, doi:10.1029/2004WR003439.

Attribution of regional flood changes based on scaling fingerprints

PubMed Central

Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Parajka, Juraj; Nester, Thomas; Blöschl, Günter

2016-01-01

Abstract Changes in the river flood regime may be due to atmospheric processes (e.g., increasing precipitation), catchment processes (e.g., soil compaction associated with land use change), and river system processes (e.g., loss of retention volume in the floodplains). This paper proposes a new framework for attributing flood changes to these drivers based on a regional analysis. We exploit the scaling characteristics (i.e., fingerprints) with catchment area of the effects of the drivers on flood changes. The estimation of their relative contributions is framed in Bayesian terms. Analysis of a synthetic, controlled case suggests that the accuracy of the regional attribution increases with increasing number of sites and record lengths, decreases with increasing regional heterogeneity, increases with increasing difference of the scaling fingerprints, and decreases with an increase of their prior uncertainty. The applicability of the framework is illustrated for a case study set in Austria, where positive flood trends have been observed at many sites in the past decades. The individual scaling fingerprints related to the atmospheric, catchment, and river system processes are estimated from rainfall data and simple hydrological modeling. Although the distributions of the contributions are rather wide, the attribution identifies precipitation change as the main driver of flood change in the study region. Overall, it is suggested that the extension from local attribution to a regional framework, including multiple drivers and explicit estimation of uncertainty, could constitute a similar shift in flood change attribution as the extension from local to regional flood frequency analysis. PMID:27609996

Does antecedent precipitation play a role for floods in (small) Swiss catchments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Froidevaux, Paul; Schwanbeck, Jan; Weingartner, Rolf; Chevalier, Clément; Romppainen-Martius, Olivia

2014-05-01

River flooding is one of the most devastating natural hazards worldwide. In Switzerland, like in many other regions, the building of flood protection infrastructures is complicated by difficulties in assessing flood risk due to: - The large year-to-year variability in flood losses. The variations amount to several orders of magnitude (see for ex. Hilker et al., 2009). - The non-stationarity of the flood risk at longer time scales. A pronounced decadal variability in flood risk has been observed by Schmocker-Fackel and Naef (2010) and Köplin et al. (2013) show that climate change will induce diverse and complex regional changes in flood risk. A better understanding of flood processes is therefore required in order to better predict changes in flood frequency. It has been hypothesized that flood frequency variations are linked to changes in the atmospheric circulation. Consequently, the whole mechanism chain starting from atmospheric circulation patterns triggering severe precipitation weather and ending with extreme river discharge must be considered. In a step in that direction we characterize precipitation events that triggered observed annual maximum discharges at 120 discharge stations during the last 53 years in Switzerland. The precipitation dataset is a temporally-homogeneous complex interpolation of daily rain gauge data on a 1 by 1 km grid covering the Swiss territory (MeteoSwiss, 2011). We test the relationship between different catchment-averaged precipitation indices and flood occurrence. We explicitly separate antecedent and event-associated precipitation. The preliminary results show that antecedent precipitation (weekly to monthly sums ending 3 days before the event) are no significant flood predictors for most of the catchments. On the other hand, a very strong signal is found for the 1-3 days precipitation sums. Lessons for flood modeling in Swiss catchments is that a strong effort is required in order to represent the flood-associated weather events correctly over a 1-3 day period -particularly the precipitation amounts- whereas antecedent precipitation is not a necessary precondition for flood building. In that sense, flood processes in Switzerland might contrast with extreme drought processes for which longer term precipitation statistics are expected to be important. Hilker, N., A. Badoux, and C. Hegg. 2009. The swiss flood and landslide damage database 1972-2007. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 9, 913-925. Schmocker-Fackel, P., and F. Naef. 2010. More frequent flooding? changes in flood frequency in switzerland since 1850. Journal of hydrology 381, 1-8. 1,3 Köplin, N., Schädler, B., Viviroli, D. and Weingartner, R. 2013. Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change. Hydrol. Process.. doi: 10.1002/hyp.9757 MeteoSwiss. 2011. Documentation of meteoswiss grid-data products. daily precipitation (final analysis): Rhiresd. available online at http://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/web/de/services/datenportal/gitterdaten/precip.html.

A hierarchical Bayesian GEV model for improving local and regional flood quantile estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; Lall, Upmanu; Troy, Tara; Devineni, Naresh

2016-10-01

We estimate local and regional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters for flood frequency analysis in a multilevel, hierarchical Bayesian framework, to explicitly model and reduce uncertainties. As prior information for the model, we assume that the GEV location and scale parameters for each site come from independent log-normal distributions, whose mean parameter scales with the drainage area. From empirical and theoretical arguments, the shape parameter for each site is shrunk towards a common mean. Non-informative prior distributions are assumed for the hyperparameters and the MCMC method is used to sample from the joint posterior distribution. The model is tested using annual maximum series from 20 streamflow gauges located in an 83,000 km2 flood prone basin in Southeast Brazil. The results show a significant reduction of uncertainty estimates of flood quantile estimates over the traditional GEV model, particularly for sites with shorter records. For return periods within the range of the data (around 50 years), the Bayesian credible intervals for the flood quantiles tend to be narrower than the classical confidence limits based on the delta method. As the return period increases beyond the range of the data, the confidence limits from the delta method become unreliable and the Bayesian credible intervals provide a way to estimate satisfactory confidence bands for the flood quantiles considering parameter uncertainties and regional information. In order to evaluate the applicability of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model for regional flood frequency analysis, we estimate flood quantiles for three randomly chosen out-of-sample sites and compare with classical estimates using the index flood method. The posterior distributions of the scaling law coefficients are used to define the predictive distributions of the GEV location and scale parameters for the out-of-sample sites given only their drainage areas and the posterior distribution of the average shape parameter is taken as the regional predictive distribution for this parameter. While the index flood method does not provide a straightforward way to consider the uncertainties in the index flood and in the regional parameters, the results obtained here show that the proposed Bayesian method is able to produce adequate credible intervals for flood quantiles that are in accordance with empirical estimates.

Links Between Flood Frequency and Annual Water Balance Behaviors: A Basis for Similarity and Regionalization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guo, Jiali; Li, Hongyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

This paper presents the results of a data based comparative study of several hundred catchments across continental United States belonging to the MOPEX dataset, which systematically explored the connection between the flood frequency curve and measures of mean annual water balance. Two different measures of mean annual water balance are used: (i) a climatic aridity index, AI, which is a measure of the competition between water and energy availability at the annual scale; and, (ii) baseflow index, BFI, the ratio of slow runoff to total runoff also at the annual time scale, reflecting the role of geology, soils, topography andmore » vegetation. The data analyses showed that the aridity index, AI, has a first order control on both the mean and Cv of annual maximum floods. While mean annual flood decreases with increasing aridity, Cv increases with increasing aridity. BFI appeared to be a second order control on the magnitude and shape of the flood frequency curve. Higher BFI, meaning more subsurface flow and less surface flow leads to a decrease of mean annual flood whereas lower BFI leads to accumulation of soil moisture and increased flood magnitudes that arise from many events acting together. The results presented in this paper provide innovative means to delineate homogeneous regions within which the flood frequency curves can be assumed to be functionally similar. At another level, understanding the connection between annual water balance and flood frequency will be another building block towards developing comprehensive understanding of catchment runoff behavior in a holistic way.« less

Estimation of Flood-Frequency Discharges for Rural, Unregulated Streams in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.

2010-01-01

Flood-frequency discharges were determined for 290 streamgage stations having a minimum of 9 years of record in West Virginia and surrounding states through the 2006 or 2007 water year. No trend was determined in the annual peaks used to calculate the flood-frequency discharges. Multiple and simple least-squares regression equations for the 100-year (1-percent annual-occurrence probability) flood discharge with independent variables that describe the basin characteristics were developed for 290 streamgage stations in West Virginia and adjacent states. The regression residuals for the models were evaluated and used to define three regions of the State, designated as Eastern Panhandle, Central Mountains, and Western Plateaus. Exploratory data analysis procedures identified 44 streamgage stations that were excluded from the development of regression equations representative of rural, unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations for the 1.1-, 1.5-, 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year flood discharges were determined by generalized least-squares regression using data from the remaining 246 streamgage stations. Drainage area was the only significant independent variable determined for all equations in all regions. Procedures developed to estimate flood-frequency discharges on ungaged streams were based on (1) regional equations and (2) drainage-area ratios between gaged and ungaged locations on the same stream. The procedures are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have drainage areas within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations (from 0.21 to 1,461 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle, from 0.10 to 1,619 square miles in the Central Mountains, and from 0.13 to 1,516 square miles in the Western Plateaus). The accuracy of the equations is quantified by measuring the average prediction error (from 21.7 to 56.3 percent) and equivalent years of record (from 2.0 to 70.9 years).

Large Scale Processes and Extreme Floods in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro Lima, C. H.; AghaKouchak, A.; Lall, U.

2016-12-01

Persistent large scale anomalies in the atmospheric circulation and ocean state have been associated with heavy rainfall and extreme floods in water basins of different sizes across the world. Such studies have emerged in the last years as a new tool to improve the traditional, stationary based approach in flood frequency analysis and flood prediction. Here we seek to advance previous studies by evaluating the dominance of large scale processes (e.g. atmospheric rivers/moisture transport) over local processes (e.g. local convection) in producing floods. We consider flood-prone regions in Brazil as case studies and the role of large scale climate processes in generating extreme floods in such regions is explored by means of observed streamflow, reanalysis data and machine learning methods. The dynamics of the large scale atmospheric circulation in the days prior to the flood events are evaluated based on the vertically integrated moisture flux and its divergence field, which are interpreted in a low-dimensional space as obtained by machine learning techniques, particularly supervised kernel principal component analysis. In such reduced dimensional space, clusters are obtained in order to better understand the role of regional moisture recycling or teleconnected moisture in producing floods of a given magnitude. The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is also used as a measure of local convection activities. We investigate for individual sites the exceedance probability in which large scale atmospheric fluxes dominate the flood process. Finally, we analyze regional patterns of floods and how the scaling law of floods with drainage area responds to changes in the climate forcing mechanisms (e.g. local vs large scale).

Duration and Frequency Analysis of Lowland Flooding in Western Murfreesboro, Rutherford County, Tennessee, 1998-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Law, George S.

2002-01-01

Periodic flooding occurs at lowlands and sinkholes in and adjacent to the flood plain of the West Fork Stones River in the western part of Murfreesboro, Tennessee. Flooding in this area commonly occurs during the winter months from December through March. The maximum water level that flood waters will reach in a lowland or sinkhole is controlled by the elevation of the land surrounding the site or the overflow outlet. Maximum water levels, independent of overflow from the river, were estimated to be reached in lowlands and sinkholes in the study area every 1 to 4 years. Minor overflow from the West Fork Stones River (less than 1 foot in depth) into the study area has been estimated to occur every 10 to 20 years. Moderate overflow from the river (1 to 2 feet in depth) occurs on average every 20 to 50 years, while major river overflow (in excess of 2 feet in depth) can be expected every 50 years. Rainfall information for the area, and streamflow and water-level measurements from the West Fork Stones River, lowlands, sinkholes, caves, and wells in the study area were used to develop a flood-prone area map, independent of overflow from the river, for the study area. Water-level duration and frequency relations, independent of overflow from the river, were estimated for several lowlands, sinkholes, and wells in the study area. These relations are used to characterize flooding in lowland areas of western Murfreesboro, Rutherford County, Tennessee.

Exploiting Synoptic-Scale Climate Processes to Develop Nonstationary, Probabilistic Flood Hazard Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C. M.; Brown, C.; Doss-Gollin, J.

2016-12-01

Climate model projections are commonly used for water resources management and planning under nonstationarity, but they do not reliably reproduce intense short-term precipitation and are instead more skilled at broader spatial scales. To provide a credible estimate of flood trend that reflects climate uncertainty, we present a framework that exploits the connections between synoptic-scale oceanic and atmospheric patterns and local-scale flood-producing meteorological events to develop long-term flood hazard projections. We demonstrate the method for the Iowa River, where high flow episodes have been found to correlate with tropical moisture exports that are associated with a pressure dipole across the eastern continental United States We characterize the relationship between flooding on the Iowa River and this pressure dipole through a nonstationary Pareto-Poisson peaks-over-threshold probability distribution estimated based on the historic record. We then combine the results of a trend analysis of dipole index in the historic record with the results of a trend analysis of the dipole index as simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) under climate change conditions through a Bayesian framework. The resulting nonstationary posterior distribution of dipole index, combined with the dipole-conditioned peaks-over-threshold flood frequency model, connects local flood hazard to changes in large-scale atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns that are related to flooding in a process-driven framework. The Iowa River example demonstrates that the resulting nonstationary, probabilistic flood hazard projection may be used to inform risk-based flood adaptation decisions.

Streamflow in the upper Santa Cruz River basin, Santa Cruz and Pima Counties, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Condes de la Torre, Alberto

1970-01-01

Streamflow records obtained in the upper Santa Cruz River basin of southern Arizona, United States, and northern Sonora, Mexico, have been analyzed to aid in the appraisal of the surface-water resources of the area. Records are available for 15 sites, and the length of record ranges from 60 years for the gaging station on the Santa .Cruz River at Tucson to 6 years for Pantano Wash near Vail. The analysis provides information on flow duration, low-flow frequency magnitude, flood-volume frequency and magnitude, and storage requirements to maintain selected draft rates. Flood-peak information collected from the gaging stations has been projected on a regional basis from which estimates of flood magnitude and frequency may be made for any site in the basin. Most streams in the 3,503-square-mile basin are ephemeral. Ground water sustains low flows only at Santa Cruz River near Nogales, Sonoita Creek near Patagonia, and Pantano Wash near Vail. Elsewhere, flow occurs only in direct response to precipitation. The median number of days per year in which there is no flow ranges from 4 at Sonoita Creek near Patagonia to 335 at Rillito Creek near Tomson. The streamflow is extremely variable from year to year, and annual flows have a coefficient of variation close to or exceeding unity at most stations. Although the amount of flow in the basin is small most of the time, the area is subject to floods. Most floods result from high-intensity precipitation caused by thunderstorms during the period ,July to September. Occasionally, when snowfall at the lower altitudes is followed by rain, winter floods produce large volumes of flow.

Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.

2011-01-01

Recent studies have documented the important role that "atmospheric rivers" (ARs) of concentrated near-surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7-model ensemble of historical-climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse-gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher-than-historical water-vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm-temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood-hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes. ?? 2011 American Water Resources Association.

Flood of August 2, 1972, in the Little Maquoketa River basin, Dubuque County, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, Albert J.

1973-01-01

Flood-peak discharges at 12 sites, basin rainfall, a description of the 1972 flood, brief accounts of other major floods in the basin, maximum flood peaks in northeastern Iowa, selected flood-frequency data, and annual floods of record at 5 sites are given.

River flood plains: Some observations on their formation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolman, M. Gordon; Leopold, Luna Bergere

1957-01-01

On many small rivers and most great rivers, the flood plain consists of channel and overbank deposits. The proportion of the latter is generally very small.Frequency studies indicate that the flood plains of many streams of different sizes flowing in diverse physiographic and climatic regions are subject to flooding about once a year.The uniform frequency of flooding of the flood-plain surface and the small amount of deposition observed in great floods (average 0.07 foot) support the conclusion that overbank deposition contributes only a minor part of the material constituting the flood plain. The relatively high velocities (1 to 4 fps) which can occur in overbank flows and the reduction in sediment concentration which often accompanies large floods may also help account for this. Although lateral migration of channels is important in controlling the elevation of the flood plain, rates of migration are extremely variable and alone cannot account for the uniform relation the flood-plain surface bears to the channel.Detailed studies of flood plains in Maryland and in North Carolina indicate that it is difficult to differentiate between channel and overbank deposits in a stratigraphic section alone.Because deposition on the flood plain does not continue indefinitely, the flood-plain surface can only be transformed into a terrace surface by some tectonic or climatic change which alters the regimen of the river and causes it to entrench itself below its established bed and associated flood plain. A terrace, then, is distinguished from a flood plain by the frequency with which each is overflowed.

Best Statistical Distribution of flood variables for Johor River in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salarpour Goodarzi, M.; Yusop, Z.; Yusof, F.

2012-12-01

A complex flood event is always characterized by a few characteristics such as flood peak, flood volume, and flood duration, which might be mutually correlated. This study explored the statistical distribution of peakflow, flood duration and flood volume at Rantau Panjang gauging station on the Johor River in Malaysia. Hourly data were recorded for 45 years. The data were analysed based on water year (July - June). Five distributions namely, Log Normal, Generalize Pareto, Log Pearson, Normal and Generalize Extreme Value (GEV) were used to model the distribution of all the three variables. Anderson-Darling and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests were used to evaluate the best fit. Goodness-of-fit tests at 5% level of significance indicate that all the models can be used to model the distribution of peakflow, flood duration and flood volume. However, Generalize Pareto distribution is found to be the most suitable model when tested with the Anderson-Darling test and the, Kolmogorov-Smirnov suggested that GEV is the best for peakflow. The result of this research can be used to improve flood frequency analysis. Comparison between Generalized Extreme Value, Generalized Pareto and Log Pearson distributions in the Cumulative Distribution Function of peakflow

Extent and frequency of floods on the Schuylkill River near Phoenixville and Pottstown, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Busch, William F.; Shaw, Lewis C.

1973-01-01

Knowledge of the frequency and extent of flooding is an important requirement for the design of all works of man bordering or encroaching on flood plains. The proper design of bridges, culverts, dams, highways, levees, reservoirs, sewage-disposal systems, waterworks and all structures on the flood plains of streams requires careful consideration of flood hazards. -1- By use of relations presented in this report, the extent, depth, and frequency of flooding can be estimated for any site along the reach of the Schuylkill River from Oaks to Pottstown. These flood data are presented so that regulatory agencies, organizations, and individuals may have a technical basis for making decisions on the use of flood-prone areas. The Delaware River Basin Commission and the U. S. Geological Survey regard this program of flood-plain-inundation studies as a positive step toward flood-damage prevention. Flood-plaininundation studies are a prerequisite to flood-plain management which may include a mixture of flood-control structures and/or land-use regulations. Both physical works and flood-plain regulations are included in the Comprehensive Plan for development of the Delaware River basin, of which the Schuylkill River is a part. Recommendations for land use, or suggestions for limitations of land use, are not made herein. Other reports on use and regulation of land in flood-prone areas are available (Dola, 1961; White, 1961; American Society of Civil Engineers Task Force on Flood Plain Regulations, 1962; and Goddard, 1963). The primary responsibility for planning for optimum land use in the flood plain and the implementation of flood-plain zoning or other regulations to achieve such optimum use rests with State, and local interests.

Development of regional skews for selected flood durations for the Central Valley Region, California, based on data through water year 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Berenbrock, Charles; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Ferris, Justin C.; Knifong, Donna L.

2012-01-01

Flood-frequency information is important in the Central Valley region of California because of the high risk of catastrophic flooding. Most traditional flood-frequency studies focus on peak flows, but for the assessment of the adequacy of reservoirs, levees, other flood control structures, sustained flood flow (flood duration) frequency data are needed. This study focuses on rainfall or rain-on-snow floods, rather than the annual maximum, because rain events produce the largest floods in the region. A key to estimating flood-duration frequency is determining the regional skew for such data. Of the 50 sites used in this study to determine regional skew, 28 sites were considered to have little to no significant regulated flows, and for the 22 sites considered significantly regulated, unregulated daily flow data were synthesized by using reservoir storage changes and diversion records. The unregulated, annual maximum rainfall flood flows for selected durations (1-day, 3-day, 7-day, 15-day, and 30-day) for all 50 sites were furnished by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Station skew was determined by using the expected moments algorithm program for fitting the Pearson Type 3 flood-frequency distribution to the logarithms of annual flood-duration data. Bayesian generalized least squares regression procedures used in earlier studies were modified to address problems caused by large cross correlations among concurrent rainfall floods in California and to address the extensive censoring of low outliers at some sites, by using the new expected moments algorithm for fitting the LP3 distribution to rainfall flood-duration data. To properly account for these problems and to develop suitable regional-skew regression models and regression diagnostics, a combination of ordinary least squares, weighted least squares, and Bayesian generalized least squares regressions were adopted. This new methodology determined that a nonlinear model relating regional skew to mean basin elevation was the best model for each flood duration. The regional-skew values ranged from -0.74 for a flood duration of 1-day and a mean basin elevation less than 2,500 feet to values near 0 for a flood duration of 7-days and a mean basin elevation greater than 4,500 feet. This relation between skew and elevation reflects the interaction of snow and rain, which increases with increased elevation. The regional skews are more accurate, and the mean squared errors are less than in the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data's National skew map of Bulletin 17B.

A new approach to flood vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.

2014-05-01

The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is presented here that studies the nature of the vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. Key findings of the work include determining the applicability of these indicators to fragility analysis, and the determination of the relative vulnerability of the three case study sites.

Analysis of flash flood parameters and human impacts in the US from 2006 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Špitalar, Maruša; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Lutoff, Celine; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Brilly, Mitja; Carr, Nicholas

2014-11-01

Several different factors external to the natural hazard of flash flooding can contribute to the type and magnitude of their resulting damages. Human exposure, vulnerability, fatality and injury rates can be minimized by identifying and then mitigating the causative factors for human impacts. A database of flash flooding was used for statistical analysis of human impacts across the U.S. 21,549 flash flood events were analyzed during a 6-year period from October 2006 to 2012. Based on the information available in the database, physical parameters were introduced and then correlated to the reported human impacts. Probability density functions of the frequency of flash flood events and the PDF of occurrences weighted by the number of injuries and fatalities were used to describe the influence of each parameter. The factors that emerged as the most influential on human impacts are short flood durations, small catchment sizes in rural areas, vehicles, and nocturnal events with low visibility. Analyzing and correlating a diverse range of parameters to human impacts give us important insights into what contributes to fatalities and injuries and further raises questions on how to manage them.

Coping with droughts and floods: A Case study of Kanyemba, Mbire District, Zimbabwe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bola, G.; Mabiza, C.; Goldin, J.; Kujinga, K.; Nhapi, I.; Makurira, H.; Mashauri, D.

Most of Southern Africa is affected by extreme weather events, droughts and floods being the most common. The frequency of floods and droughts in Southern Africa in general, of which the Zambezi River Basin is part of, has been linked to climate change. Droughts and floods impact on the natural environment, and directly and indirectly impact on livelihoods. In the Middle Zambezi River Basin, which is located between Kariba and Cahora Bassa dams, extreme weather events are exacerbated by human activities, in particular the operation of both the Kariba and the Cahora Bassa reservoirs. To understand better, whether, and in what ways extreme weather events impact on livelihoods, this study used both quantitative and qualitative research methods to analyse rainfall variability and coping strategies used by households in the river basin. Data collection was done using semi-structured interviews, focus group discussions and structured questionnaires which were administered to 144 households. An analysis of rainfall variability and Cahora Bassa water level over 23 years was carried out. The study found that perceptions of households were that average rainfall has decreased over the years, and dry-spells have become more frequent. Furthermore, households perceived flood events to have increased over the last two decades. However, the analysis of rainfall variability revealed that the average rainfall received between 1988 and 2011 had not changed but the frequency of dry-spells and floods had increased. The occurrence of floods in the study area was found to be linked to heavy local rain and backflow from Cahora Bassa dam. The study found that households adopted a number of strategies to cope with droughts and floods, such as vegetable farming and crop production in the floodplain, taking on local jobs that brought in wages, planting late and livestock disposals. Some households also resorted to out-migration on a daily basis to Zambia or Mozambique. The study concluded that coping mechanisms were found to be inflexible and poorly suited to adapt to floods and droughts. The study recommends the implementation of adaptation measures such as the cultivation of drought-resistant crop varieties, irrigation and off-farm employment opportunities.

Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.

PubMed

Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E

2017-09-11

Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.

Flood frequency analysis - the challenge of using historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjorn

2015-04-01

Estimates of high flood quantiles are needed for many applications, .e.g. dam safety assessments are based on the 1000 years flood, whereas the dimensioning of important infrastructure requires estimates of the 200 year flood. The flood quantiles are estimated by fitting a parametric distribution to a dataset of high flows comprising either annual maximum values or peaks over a selected threshold. Since the record length of data is limited compared to the desired flood quantile, the estimated flood magnitudes are based on a high degree of extrapolation. E.g. the longest time series available in Norway are around 120 years, and as a result any estimation of a 1000 years flood will require extrapolation. One solution is to extend the temporal dimension of a data series by including information about historical floods before the stream flow was systematically gaugeded. Such information could be flood marks or written documentation about flood events. The aim of this study was to evaluate the added value of using historical flood data for at-site flood frequency estimation. The historical floods were included in two ways by assuming: (1) the size of (all) floods above a high threshold within a time interval is known; and (2) the number of floods above a high threshold for a time interval is known. We used a Bayesian model formulation, with MCMC used for model estimation. This estimation procedure allowed us to estimate the predictive uncertainty of flood quantiles (i.e. both sampling and parameter uncertainty is accounted for). We tested the methods using 123 years of systematic data from Bulken in western Norway. In 2014 the largest flood in the systematic record was observed. From written documentation and flood marks we had information from three severe floods in the 18th century and they were likely to exceed the 2014 flood. We evaluated the added value in two ways. First we used the 123 year long streamflow time series and investigated the effect of having several shorter series' which could be supplemented with a limited number of known large flood events. Then we used the three historical floods from the 18th century combined with the whole and subsets of the 123 years of systematic observations. In the latter case several challenges were identified: i) The possibility to transfer water levels to river streamflows due to man made changes in the river profile, (ii) The stationarity of the data might be questioned since the three largest historical floods occurred during the "little ice age" with different climatic conditions compared to today.

Comparison of automatic procedures in the selection of peaks over threshold in flood frequency analysis: A Canadian case study in the context of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durocher, M.; Mostofi Zadeh, S.; Burn, D. H.; Ashkar, F.

2017-12-01

Floods are one of the most costly hazards and frequency analysis of river discharges is an important part of the tools at our disposal to evaluate their inherent risks and to provide an adequate response. In comparison to the common examination of annual streamflow maximums, peaks over threshold (POT) is an interesting alternative that makes better use of the available information by including more than one flood event per year (on average). However, a major challenge is the selection of a satisfactory threshold above which peaks are assumed to respect certain conditions necessary for an adequate estimation of the risk. Additionally, studies have shown that POT is also a valuable approach to investigate the evolution of flood regimes in the context of climate change. Recently, automatic procedures for the selection of the threshold were suggested to guide that important choice, which otherwise rely on graphical tools and expert judgment. Furthermore, having an automatic procedure that is objective allows for quickly repeating the analysis on a large number of samples, which is useful in the context of large databases or for uncertainty analysis based on a resampling approach. This study investigates the impact of considering such procedures in a case study including many sites across Canada. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the bias and predictive power of the automatic procedures in similar conditions as well as investigating the power of derived nonstationarity tests. The results obtained are also evaluated in the light of expert judgments established in a previous study. Ultimately, this study provides a thorough examination of the considerations that need to be addressed when conducting POT analysis using automatic threshold selection.

Techniques for estimating flood peak discharges for unregulated streams and streams regulated by small floodwater retarding structures in Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, R.L.; Bergman, D.L.

1985-01-01

Statewide regression relations for Oklahoma were determined for estimating peak discharge of floods for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years. The independent variables required for estimating flood discharge for rural streams are contributing drainage area and mean annual precipitation. Main-channel slope, a variable used in previous reports, was found to contribute very little to the accuracy of the relations and was not used. The regression equations are applicable for watersheds with drainage areas less than 2,500 square miles that are not significantly affected by regulation from manmade works. These relations are presented in graphical form for easy application. Limitations on the use of the regression relations and the reliability of regression estimates for rural unregulated streams are discussed. Basin and climatic characteristics, log-Pearson Type III statistics and the flood-frequency relations for 226 gaging stations in Oklahoma and adjacent states are presented. Regression relations are investigated for estimating flood magnitude and frequency for watersheds affected by regulation from small FRS (floodwater retarding structures) built by the U.S. Soil Conservation Service in their watershed protection and flood prevention program. Gaging-station data from nine FRS regulated sites in Oklahoma and one FRS regulated site in Kansas are used. For sites regulated by FRS, an adjustment of the statewide rural regression relations can be used to estimate flood magnitude and frequency. The statewide regression equations are used by substituting the drainage area below the FRS, or drainage area that represents the percent of the basin unregulated, in the contributing drainage area parameter to obtain flood-frequency estimates. Flood-frequency curves and flow-duration curves are presented for five gaged sites to illustrate the effects of FRS regulation on peak discharge.

Flood frequency matters: Why climate change degrades deep-water quality of peri-alpine lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, Gabriel; Wessels, Martin; Wüest, Alfred

2016-09-01

Sediment-laden riverine floods transport large quantities of dissolved oxygen into the receiving deep layers of lakes. Hence, the water quality of deep lakes is strongly influenced by the frequency of riverine floods. Although flood frequency reflects climate conditions, the effects of climate variability on the water quality of deep lakes is largely unknown. We quantified the effects of climate variability on the potential shifts in the flood regime of the Alpine Rhine, the main catchment of Lake Constance, and determined the intrusion depths of riverine density-driven underflows and the subsequent effects on water exchange rates in the lake. A simplified hydrodynamic underflow model was developed and validated with observed river inflow and underflow events. The model was implemented to estimate underflow statistics for different river inflow scenarios. Using this approach, we integrated present and possible future flood frequencies to underflow occurrences and intrusion depths in Lake Constance. The results indicate that more floods will increase the number of underflows and the intensity of deep-water renewal - and consequently will cause higher deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Vice versa, fewer floods weaken deep-water renewal and lead to lower deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Meanwhile, a change from glacial nival regime (present) to a nival pluvial regime (future) is expected to decrease deep-water renewal. While flood frequencies are not expected to change noticeably for the next decades, it is most likely that increased winter discharge and decreased summer discharge will reduce the number of deep density-driven underflows by 10% and favour shallower riverine interflows in the upper hypolimnion. The renewal in the deepest layers is expected to be reduced by nearly 27%. This study underlines potential consequences of climate change on the occurrence of deep river underflows and water residence times in deep lakes.

Regional flood reconstruction in Kullu District (Himachal Pradesh, India): implication for Disaster Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Stoffel, Markus; Trappmann, Daniel; Shekhar, Mayank; Bhattacharyya, Amalava

2016-04-01

Floods are a common natural hazard in the Western Indian Himalayas. They usually occur when humid monsoon airs are lifted along the Himalayan relief, thereby creating intense orographic rainfall and runoff, a process which is often enhanced by simultaneous snowmelt. Monsoon floods are considered a major threat in the region and frequently affect inhabited valleys, disturbing the status quo of communities, stressing the future welfare and condition of their economic development. Given the assumption that ongoing and future climatic changes may impact on monsoon patterns and extreme precipitation, the implementation of adaptation policies in this region is critically needed in order to improve local resilience of Himalayan communities. However, its success implementation is highly dependent on system knowledge and hence reliable baseline data of past disasters. In this communication, we demonstrate how newly gained knowledge on past flood incidents may improve flood hazard and risk assessments. Based on growth-ring analysis of trees growing in the floodplains and other, more classical paleo-hydrology techniques, we reconstruct the regional flood activity for the last decades. This information is then included as non-systematic data into the regional flood frequency by using Bayesian Markov Monte Carlo Chain algorithms, so as to analyse the impact of the additional data on flood hazard assessments. Moreover, through a detailed analysis of three flood risk hotspots, we demonstrate how the newly gained knowledge on past flood disasters derived from indirect proxies can explain failures in the implementation of disaster risk management (DRM). Our methodology allowed identification of thirty-four unrecorded flood events at the study sites located in the upper reaches since the early 20th century, and thus completion of the existing flood history in the region based on flow measurements in the lower part of the catchment. We observe that 56% of the floods occurred simultaneously in more than two catchments, and that in 15% of the cases more than four catchments were affected. By contrast, 44% of event years were related with one specific catchment, corroborating the assumption that large-scale atmospheric conditions and specific weather and/or geomorphic conditions may operate as triggers of floods in Kullu district. The inclusion of peak discharge data related with these ungauged extreme flood events into the regional flood frequency evidenced that flood hazard was systematically underestimated. Our results allowed to highlight the potential causes of three paradigmatic cases of flood disaster incidents at Kullus district, suggesting that the lack of knowledge on past flood disaster could play an important role in Disaster Risk managment (DRM) at three actors-levels i.e. civil engineering, local authorities and inhabitants. These observations show that reliable DRM implementation is conditioned by lack of data to characterize the flood process, and therefore put in value the palaeohydrological approach used in this study.

A Bayesian Surrogate for Regional Skew in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuczera, George

1983-06-01

The problem of how to best utilize site and regional flood data to infer the shape parameter of a flood distribution is considered. One approach to this problem is given in Bulletin 17B of the U.S. Water Resources Council (1981) for the log-Pearson distribution. Here a lesser known distribution is considered, namely, the power normal which fits flood data as well as the log-Pearson and has a shape parameter denoted by λ derived from a Box-Cox power transformation. The problem of regionalizing λ is considered from an empirical Bayes perspective where site and regional flood data are used to infer λ. The distortive effects of spatial correlation and heterogeneity of site sampling variance of λ are explicitly studied with spatial correlation being found to be of secondary importance. The end product of this analysis is the posterior distribution of the power normal parameters expressing, in probabilistic terms, what is known about the parameters given site flood data and regional information on λ. This distribution can be used to provide the designer with several types of information. The posterior distribution of the T-year flood is derived. The effect of nonlinearity in λ on inference is illustrated. Because uncertainty in λ is explicitly allowed for, the understatement in confidence limits due to fixing λ (analogous to fixing log skew) is avoided. Finally, it is shown how to obtain the marginal flood distribution which can be used to select a design flood with specified exceedance probability.

Regression equations for estimating flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-Year recurrence intervals in Connecticut

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahearn, Elizabeth A.

2004-01-01

Multiple linear-regression equations were developed to estimate the magnitudes of floods in Connecticut for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The equations can be used for nonurban, unregulated stream sites in Connecticut with drainage areas ranging from about 2 to 715 square miles. Flood-frequency data and hydrologic characteristics from 70 streamflow-gaging stations and the upstream drainage basins were used to develop the equations. The hydrologic characteristics?drainage area, mean basin elevation, and 24-hour rainfall?are used in the equations to estimate the magnitude of floods. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations are 31.8, 32.7, 34.4, 35.9, 37.6 and 45.0 percent for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Simplified equations using only one hydrologic characteristic?drainage area?also were developed. The regression analysis is based on generalized least-squares regression techniques. Observed flows (log-Pearson Type III analysis of the annual maximum flows) from five streamflow-gaging stations in urban basins in Connecticut were compared to flows estimated from national three-parameter and seven-parameter urban regression equations. The comparison shows that the three- and seven- parameter equations used in conjunction with the new statewide equations generally provide reasonable estimates of flood flows for urban sites in Connecticut, although a national urban flood-frequency study indicated that the three-parameter equations significantly underestimated flood flows in many regions of the country. Verification of the accuracy of the three-parameter or seven-parameter national regression equations using new data from Connecticut stations was beyond the scope of this study. A technique for calculating flood flows at streamflow-gaging stations using a weighted average also is described. Two estimates of flood flows?one estimate based on the log-Pearson Type III analyses of the annual maximum flows at the gaging station, and the other estimate from the regression equation?are weighted together based on the years of record at the gaging station and the equivalent years of record value determined from the regression. Weighted averages of flood flows for the 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence intervals are tabulated for the 70 streamflow-gaging stations used in the regression analysis. Generally, weighted averages give the most accurate estimate of flood flows at gaging stations. An evaluation of the Connecticut's streamflow-gaging network was performed to determine whether the spatial coverage and range of geographic and hydrologic conditions are adequately represented for transferring flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites. Fifty-one of 54 stations in the current (2004) network support one or more flood needs of federal, state, and local agencies. Twenty-five of 54 stations in the current network are considered high-priority stations by the U.S. Geological Survey because of their contribution to the longterm understanding of floods, and their application for regionalflood analysis. Enhancements to the network to improve overall effectiveness for regionalization can be made by increasing the spatial coverage of gaging stations, establishing stations in regions of the state that are not well-represented, and adding stations in basins with drainage area sizes not represented. Additionally, the usefulness of the network for characterizing floods can be maintained and improved by continuing operation at the current stations because flood flows can be more accurately estimated at stations with continuous, long-term record.

Flood plain analysis for Petris, , Troas, and Monoros, tia watersheds, the Arad department, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Győri, M.-M.; Haidu, I.

2012-04-01

The present study sets out to determine the flood plains corresponding to flood discharges having 10, 50 and 100 year recurrence intervals on the Monoroštia, Petriš and Troaš Rivers, located in Western Romania, the Arad department. The data of the study area is first collected and pre-processed in ArcGIS. It consists of land use data, soil data, the DEM, stream gauges' and meteorological stations' locations, on the basis of which the watersheds' hydrologic parameters' are computed using the Geospatial Hydrologic Modelling Extension (HEC Geo-HMS). HEC Geo-HMS functions as an interface between ArcGIS and HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Centre- Hydrologic Modelling System) and converts the data collected and generated in ArcGIS to data useable by HEC-HMS. The basin model component in HEC-HMS represents the physical watershed. It facilitates the effective rainfall computation on the basis of the input hyetograph, passing the results to a transform function that converts the excess precipitation into runoff at the subwatersheds' outlet. This enables the estimation and creation of hydrographs for the ungauged watersheds. In the present study, the results are achieved through the SCS CN loss method and the SCS Unit hydrograph transform method. The simulations use rainfall data that is registered at the stations situated in the catchments' vicinity, data that spans over two decades (1989-2009) and which allows the rainfall hyetographs to be determined for the above mentioned return periods. The model will be calibrated against measured streamflow data from the gauging stations on the main rivers, leading to the adjustment of watershed parameters, such as the CN parameter. As the flood discharges for 10, 50 and 100 year return periods have been determined, the profile of the water surface elevation along the channel will be computed through a steady flow analysis, with HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Centre- River Analysis System). For each of the flood frequencies, a water surface TIN is generated and intersected with the DEM in order to create the flood plain polygons. The final result consists of the flood plain delineation and the water inundation depths for the 10, 50 and 100 year return period flood events. These could be further employed in a risk assessment. Key words : flood plain analysis, frequency analysis, HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS. Aknowledgements This work was possible with the financial support of the Sectoral Operational Programme for Human Resources Development 2007-2013, co-financed by the European Social Fund, under the project number POSDRU/107/1.5/S/76841 with the title "Modern Doctoral Studies: Internationalization and Interdisciplinarity".

Comparison of Alaskan Flood Stages: Annual Exceedance Probability vs. Impact Based Stages and Recommendations for the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, B. J.

2016-12-01

The Alaska River Forecasting Center (APRFC) issues water level forecasts that are used in conjunction with established flood stages to provide flood warning and advisory information to the public. The APRFC typically establishes flood stages based on observed impacts but Alaska has sparse empirical data (e.g., few impact surveys). Thus service hydrologists in Alaska use flood frequency analysis (LP3 distribution) to estimate flood stages from annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) (Curran et al, 2016). Previously, the APRFC has maintained that bankfull stage corresponds to the 50% AEP, minor to 10-20% AEP, moderate to 2.5-7% AEP, and major to 1-2% AEP, but we now need to statistically verify this relationship. Our objective is therefore to validate the relationship between flood stages and stage associated with the 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.2, and 0.5 AEPs to provide recommendations for improved flood forecasting. We studied the relationship between AEP and flood stage for all gages (56) used by the APRFC that had rating curves not older than 3 years, flood stages based on observed impacts, and at least 10 years of peak annual stage data. The analysis found relatively strong relationships for all flood stages, except for bankfull stage, but with some differences when compared to the traditionally referenced relationship. Major flood stage appears to be most similar to the 1-.2% AEP (100-500 year RI) while moderate flood stage best fits the 2-4% AEP (25-50 year interval). Gages showing a difference in stage of 2 ft or greater exhibited this difference across all flood stages, which we link to site specific qualities such as susceptibility to ice-jam flooding. We present this method as a possible application to Alaskan Rivers as a general flood stage guideline.

Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, Robert D.; Tomlinson, Edward M.

2000-01-01

In the past decade, there has been a growing interest of dam safety officials to incorporate a risk‐based analysis for design‐flood hydrology. Extreme or rare floods, with probabilities in the range of about 10−3 to 10−7 chance of occurrence per year, are of continuing interest to the hydrologic and engineering communities for purposes of planning and design of structures such as dams [National Research Council, 1988]. The National Research Council stresses that as much information as possible about floods needs to be used for evaluation of the risk and consequences of any decision. A regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach was developed to assist dam safety officials and floodplain managers in their assessments of the risk of large floods. The interdisciplinary components included documenting maximum paleofloods and a regional analyses of contemporary extreme rainfall and flood data to complement a site‐specific probable maximum precipitation study [Tomlinson and Solak, 1997]. The cost‐effective approach, which can be used in many other hydrometeorologic settings, was applied to Elkhead Reservoir in Elkhead Creek (531 km2) in northwestern Colorado; the regional study area was 10,900 km2. Paleoflood data using bouldery flood deposits and noninundation surfaces for 88 streams were used to document maximum flood discharges that have occurred during the Holocene. Several relative dating methods were used to determine the age of paleoflood deposits and noninundation surfaces. No evidence of substantial flooding was found in the study area. The maximum paleoflood of 135 m3 s−1 for Elkhead Creek is about 13% of the site‐specific probable maximum flood of 1020 m3 s−1. Flood‐frequency relations using the expected moments algorithm, which better incorporates paleoflood data, were developed to assess the risk of extreme floods. Envelope curves encompassing maximum rainfall (181 sites) and floods (218 sites) were developed for northwestern Colorado to help define maximum contemporary and Holocene flooding in Elkhead Creek and in a regional frequency context. Study results for Elkhead Reservoir were accepted by the Colorado State Engineer for dam safety certification.

Rainfall and runoff Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Washington State considering the change and uncertainty of observed and anticipated extreme rainfall and snow events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.; Mortuza, M. R.; Li, H. Y.

2015-12-01

The observed and anticipated increasing trends in extreme storm magnitude and frequency, as well as the associated flooding risk in the Pacific Northwest highlighted the need for revising and updating the local intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which are commonly used for designing critical water infrastructure. In Washington State, much of the drainage system installed in the last several decades uses IDF curves that are outdated by as much as half a century, making the system inadequate and vulnerable for flooding as seen more frequently in recent years. In this study, we have developed new and forward looking rainfall and runoff IDF curves for each county in Washington State using recently observed and projected precipitation data. Regional frequency analysis coupled with Bayesian uncertainty quantification and model averaging methods were used to developed and update the rainfall IDF curves, which were then used in watershed and snow models to develop the runoff IDF curves that explicitly account for effects of snow and drainage characteristic into the IDF curves and related designs. The resulted rainfall and runoff IDF curves provide more reliable, forward looking, and spatially resolved characteristics of storm events that can assist local decision makers and engineers to thoroughly review and/or update the current design standards for urban and rural storm water management infrastructure in order to reduce the potential ramifications of increasing severe storms and resulting floods on existing and planned storm drainage and flood management systems in the state.

Annual timing of river floods in the Northeast United States: seasonal characterization and temporal trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, M. J.

2016-12-01

Increases in flood magnitude and frequency have been documented in climate-sensitive watersheds in the Northeast United States. Associated changes in inundation frequency and/or magnitude, or changes in stream channel form and function, can affect human uses of floodplain environments (e.g., dwellings or transportation infrastructure) as well as aquatic and riparian habitats. Historical changes in flood magnitude and frequency also have important implications for designing floodplain infrastructure and channel modifications because well-accepted statistical methods for design-flood prediction require flood records with stationary means and variances. Changes in flood timing during the year may also be impactful, but have not been studied in detail for the Northeast United States. For example, relatively modest shifts in the timing of winter/spring floods can affect the incidence of ice jam complications. Or, changes in spring or fall flood timing may positively or negatively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. With this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasonality in climate-sensitive watersheds of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Temporal trends in the timing of floods within significant flood seasons at a site are then analyzed using a method that employs directional statistics. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. Documented changes in flood timing during the year are considered in the context of both potential historical impacts and expectations for future flood timing given regional climate change projections.

Analysis of the Magnitude and Frequency of Peak Discharges for the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waltemeyer, Scott D.

2006-01-01

Estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges are necessary for the reliable flood-hazard mapping in the Navajo Nation in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, and New Mexico. The Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Navajo Nation requested that the U.S. Geological Survey update estimates of peak discharge magnitude for gaging stations in the region and update regional equations for estimation of peak discharge and frequency at ungaged sites. Equations were developed for estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years at ungaged sites using data collected through 1999 at 146 gaging stations, an additional 13 years of peak-discharge data since a 1997 investigation, which used gaging-station data through 1986. The equations for estimation of peak discharges at ungaged sites were developed for flood regions 8, 11, high elevation, and 6 and are delineated on the basis of the hydrologic codes from the 1997 investigation. Peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were determined at gaging stations by fitting observed data to a log-Pearson Type III distribution with adjustments for a low-discharge threshold and a zero skew coefficient. A low-discharge threshold was applied to frequency analysis of 82 of the 146 gaging stations. This application provides an improved fit of the log-Pearson Type III frequency distribution. Use of the low-discharge threshold generally eliminated the peak discharge having a recurrence interval of less than 1.4 years in the probability-density function. Within each region, logarithms of the peak discharges for selected recurrence intervals were related to logarithms of basin and climatic characteristics using stepwise ordinary least-squares regression techniques for exploratory data analysis. Generalized least-squares regression techniques, an improved regression procedure that accounts for time and spatial sampling errors, then was applied to the same data used in the ordinary least-squares regression analyses. The average standard error of prediction for a peak discharge have a recurrence interval of 100-years for region 8 was 53 percent (average) for the 100-year flood. The average standard of prediction, which includes average sampling error and average standard error of regression, ranged from 45 to 83 percent for the 100-year flood. Estimated standard error of prediction for a hybrid method for region 11 was large in the 1997 investigation. No distinction of floods produced from a high-elevation region was presented in the 1997 investigation. Overall, the equations based on generalized least-squares regression techniques are considered to be more reliable than those in the 1997 report because of the increased length of record and improved GIS method. Techniques for transferring flood-frequency relations to ungaged sites on the same stream can be estimated at an ungaged site by a direct application of the regional regression equation or at an ungaged site on a stream that has a gaging station upstream or downstream by using the drainage-area ratio and the drainage-area exponent from the regional regression equation of the respective region.

Hawaii StreamStats; a web application for defining drainage-basin characteristics and estimating peak-streamflow statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosa, Sarah N.; Oki, Delwyn S.

2010-01-01

Reliable estimates of the magnitude and frequency of floods are necessary for the safe and efficient design of roads, bridges, water-conveyance structures, and flood-control projects and for the management of flood plains and flood-prone areas. StreamStats provides a simple, fast, and reproducible method to define drainage-basin characteristics and estimate the frequency and magnitude of peak discharges in Hawaii?s streams using recently developed regional regression equations. StreamStats allows the user to estimate the magnitude of floods for streams where data from stream-gaging stations do not exist. Existing estimates of the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges in Hawaii can be improved with continued operation of existing stream-gaging stations and installation of additional gaging stations for areas where limited stream-gaging data are available.

A 30m resolution hydrodynamic model of the entire conterminous United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C.; Johnson, K.; Wing, O.

2016-12-01

In this paper we describe the development and validation of a 30m resolution hydrodynamic model covering the entire conterminous United States. The model can be used to simulate inundation and water depths resulting from either return period flows (so equivalent to FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps), hindcasts of historic events or forecasts of future river flow from a rainfall-runoff or land surface model. As topographic data the model uses the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Dataset or NED, and return period flows are generated using a regional flood frequency analysis methodology (Smith et al., 2015. Worldwide flood frequency estimation. Water Resources Research, 51, 539-553). Flood defences nationwide are represented using data from the US Army Corps of Engineers. Using these data flows are simulated using an explicit and highly efficient finite difference solution of the local inertial form of the Shallow Water equations identical to that implemented in the LISFLOOD-FP model. Even with this efficient numerical solution a simulation at this resolution over a whole continent is a huge undertaking, and a variety of High Performance Computing technologies therefore need to be employed to make these simulations possible. The size of the output datasets is also challenging, and to solve this we use the GIS and graphical display functions of Google Earth Engine to facilitate easy visualisation and interrogation of the results. The model is validated against the return period flood extents contained in FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps and real flood event data from the Texas 2015 flood event which was hindcast using the model. Finally, we present an application of the model to the Upper Mississippi river basin where simulations both with and without flood defences are used to determine floodplain areas benefitting from protection in order to quantify the benefits of flood defence spending.

Flood model for Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

2017-04-01

Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula scheme to generate probabilistic flood event set. The derived design flows for selected rivers inside model domain were used as an input for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation modelling techniques (using the tool TUFLOW by BMT WBM) on mesh size 30 x 30 metres. Outputs from inundation modelling and stochastic event set were implemented in the Aon Benfield's platform ELEMENTS developed and managed internally by Impact Forecasting; Aon Benfield internal catastrophe model development center. The model was designed to evaluate potential financial impact caused by fluvial flooding on portfolios of insurance and/or reinsurance companies. The structure of presented model follows typical scheme of financial loss catastrophe model and combines hazard with exposure and vulnerability to produce potential financial loss expressed in the form of loss exceedance probability curve and many other insured perspectives, such as average annual loss, event or quantile loss tables and etc. Model can take financial inputs as well as provide split of results for exact specified location or related higher administrative units: municipalities and 5-digit postal codes.

Is climate change modifying precipitation extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, Alberto; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

2016-04-01

The title of the present contribution is a relevant question that is frequently posed to scientists, technicians and managers of local authorities. Although several research efforts were recently dedicated to rainfall observation, analysis and modelling, the above question remains essentially unanswered. The question comes from the awareness that the frequency of floods and the related socio-economic impacts are increasing in many countries, and climate change is deemed to be the main trigger. Indeed, identifying the real reasons for the observed increase of flood risk is necessary in order to plan effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. While mitigation of climate change is an extremely important issue at the global level, at small spatial scales several other triggers may interact with it, therefore requiring different mitigation strategies. Similarly, the responsibilities of administrators are radically different at local and global scales. This talk aims to provide insights and information to address the question expressed by its title. High resolution and long term rainfall data will be presented, as well as an analysis of the frequency of their extremes and its progress in time. The results will provide pragmatic indications for the sake of better planning flood risk mitigation policies.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martínez Trepat, Oriol; Nghia Hung, Nguyen; Thi Chinh, Do; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2016-04-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial-pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Late Neolithic Mondsee Culture in Austria: living on lakes and living with flood risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swierczynski, T.; Lauterbach, S.; Dulski, P.; Brauer, A.

2013-07-01

Neolithic and Bronze Age lake dwellings in the European Alps became recently protected under the UNESCO World Heritage. However, only little is known about the cultural history of the related pre-historic communities, their adaptation strategies to environmental changes and particularly about the almost synchronous decline of many of these settlements around the transition from the Late Neolithic to the Early Bronze Age. For example, there is an ongoing debate whether the abandonment of Late Neolithic lake dwellings at Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) was caused by unfavourable climate conditions or a single catastrophic event. Within the varved sediments of Lake Mondsee, we investigated the occurrence of intercalated detrital layers from major floods and debris flows to unravel extreme surface runoff recurrence during the Neolithic settlement period. A combination of detailed sediment microfacies analysis and μXRF element scanning allows distinguishing debris flow and flood deposits. A total of 60 flood and 12 debris flow event layers was detected between 7000 and 4000 varve years (vyr) BP. Compared to the centennial- to millennial-scale average, a period of increased runoff event frequency can be identified between 5900 and 4450 vyr BP. Enhanced flood frequency is accompanied by predominantly siliciclastic sediment supply between ca. 5500 and 5000 vyr BP and enhanced dolomitic sediment supply between 4900 and 4500 vyr BP. A change in the location and the construction technique of the Neolithic lake dwellings at Lake Mondsee can be observed during the period of higher flood frequency. While lake dwellings of the first settlement period (ca. 5800-5250 cal. yr BP) were constructed directly on the wetlands, later constructions (ca. 5400-4700 cal. yr BP) were built on piles upon the water, possibly indicating an adaptation to either increased flood risk or a general increase of the lake level. However, our results also indicate that other than climatic factors (e.g. socio-economic changes) must have influenced the decline of the Mondsee Culture because flood activity generally decreased since 4450 vyr BP, but no new lake dwellings have been established thereafter.

The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

2007-01-01

The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals, estimates of the probable maximum flood, extrapolation of the 500-year flood when an equation for estimating it is not available, and weighting techniques to improve flood-frequency estimates for gaging stations and ungaged sites on gaged streams. This report describes the regionalization techniques used to develop the equations in NSS and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The report also includes a users manual and a summary of equations available for estimating basin lagtime, which is needed by the program to generate flood hydrographs. The NSS software and accompanying database, and the documentation for the regression equations included in NSS, are available on the Web at http://water.usgs.gov/software/.

Around and about an application of the GAMLSS package to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debele, S. E.; Bogdanowicz, E.; Strupczewski, W. G.

2017-08-01

The non-stationarity of hydrologic processes due to climate change or human activities is challenging for the researchers and practitioners. However, the practical requirements for taking into account non-stationarity as a support in decision-making procedures exceed the up-to-date development of the theory and the of software. Currently, the most popular and freely available software package that allows for non-stationary statistical analysis is the GAMLSS (generalized additive models for location, scale and shape) package. GAMLSS has been used in a variety of fields. There are also several papers recommending GAMLSS in hydrological problems; however, there are still important issues which have not previously been discussed concerning mainly GAMLSS applicability not only for research and academic purposes, but also in a design practice. In this paper, we present a summary of our experiences in the implementation of GAMLSS to non-stationary flood frequency analysis, highlighting its advantages and pointing out weaknesses with regard to methodological and practical topics.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Arizona, developed with unregulated and rural peak-flow data through water year 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paretti, Nicholas V.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Turney, Lovina A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

The regional regression equations were integrated into the U.S. Geological Survey’s StreamStats program. The StreamStats program is a national map-based web application that allows the public to easily access published flood frequency and basin characteristic statistics. The interactive web application allows a user to select a point within a watershed (gaged or ungaged) and retrieve flood-frequency estimates derived from the current regional regression equations and geographic information system data within the selected basin. StreamStats provides users with an efficient and accurate means for retrieving the most up to date flood frequency and basin characteristic data. StreamStats is intended to provide consistent statistics, minimize user error, and reduce the need for large datasets and costly geographic information system software.

Estimation of magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in Puerto Rico : new empirical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramos-Gines, Orlando

1999-01-01

Flood-peak discharges and frequencies are presented for 57 gaged sites in Puerto Rico for recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years. The log-Pearson Type III distribution, the methodology recommended by the United States Interagency Committee on Water Data, was used to determine the magnitude and frequency of floods at the gaged sites having 10 to 43 years of record. A technique is presented for estimating flood-peak discharges at recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 500 years for unregulated streams in Puerto Rico with contributing drainage areas ranging from 0.83 to 208 square miles. Loglinear multiple regression analyses, using climatic and basin characteristics and peak-discharge data from the 57 gaged sites, were used to construct regression equations to transfer the magnitude and frequency information from gaged to ungaged sites. The equations have contributing drainage area, depth-to-rock, and mean annual rainfall as the basin and climatic characteristics in estimating flood peak discharges. Examples are given to show a step-by-step procedure in calculating a 100-year flood at a gaged site, an ungaged site, a site near a gaged location, and a site between two gaged sites.

Cahokia's emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz, Samuel E.; Gruley, Kristine E.; Massie, Ashtin; Fike, David A.; Schroeder, Sissel; Williams, John W.

2015-05-01

Here we establish the timing of major flood events of the central Mississippi River over the last 1,800 y, using floodwater sediments deposited in two floodplain lakes. Shifts in the frequency of high-magnitude floods are mediated by moisture availability over midcontinental North America and correspond to the emergence and decline of Cahokia-a major late prehistoric settlement in the Mississippi River floodplain. The absence of large floods from A.D. 600 to A.D. 1200 facilitated agricultural intensification, population growth, and settlement expansion across the floodplain that are associated with the emergence of Cahokia as a regional center around A.D. 1050. The return of large floods after A.D. 1200, driven by waning midcontinental aridity, marks the onset of sociopolitical reorganization and depopulation that culminate in the abandonment of Cahokia and the surrounding region by A.D. 1350. Shifts in the frequency and magnitude of flooding may be an underappreciated but critical factor in the formation and dissolution of social complexity in early agricultural societies.

Method of estimating flood-frequency parameters for streams in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kjelstrom, L.C.; Moffatt, R.L.

1981-01-01

Skew coefficients for the log-Pearson type III distribution are generalized on the basis of some similarity of floods in the Snake River basin and other parts of Idaho. Generalized skew coefficients aid in shaping flood-frequency curves because skew coefficients computed from gaging stations having relatively short periods of peak flow records can be unreliable. Generalized skew coefficients can be obtained for a gaging station from one of three maps in this report. The map to be used depends on whether (1) snowmelt floods are domiant (generally when more than 20 percent of the drainage area is above 6,000 feet altitude), (2) rainstorm floods are dominant (generally when the mean altitude is less than 3,000 feet), or (3) either snowmelt or rainstorm floods can be the annual miximum discharge. For the latter case, frequency curves constructed using separate arrays of each type of runoff can be combined into one curve, which, for some stations, is significantly different than the frequency curve constructed using only annual maximum discharges. For 269 gaging stations, flood-frequency curves that include the generalized skew coefficients in the computation of the log-Pearson type III equation tend to fit the data better than previous analyses. Frequency curves for ungaged sites can be derived by estimating three statistics of the log-Pearson type III distribution. The mean and standard deviation of logarithms of annual maximum discharges are estimated by regression equations that use basin characteristics as independent variables. Skew coefficient estimates are the generalized skews. The log-Pearson type III equation is then applied with the three estimated statistics to compute the discharge at selected exceedance probabilities. Standard errors at the 2-percent exceedance probability range from 41 to 90 percent. (USGS)

The Use of Radar-Based Products for Deriving Extreme Rainfall Frequencies Using Regional Frequency Analysis with Application in South Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eldardiry, H. A.; Habib, E. H.

2014-12-01

Radar-based technologies have made spatially and temporally distributed quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) available in an operational environmental compared to the raingauges. The floods identified through flash flood monitoring and prediction systems are subject to at least three sources of uncertainties: (a) those related to rainfall estimation errors, (b) those due to streamflow prediction errors due to model structural issues, and (c) those due to errors in defining a flood event. The current study focuses on the first source of uncertainty and its effect on deriving important climatological characteristics of extreme rainfall statistics. Examples of such characteristics are rainfall amounts with certain Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI) or Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP), which are highly valuable for hydrologic and civil engineering design purposes. Gauge-based precipitation frequencies estimates (PFE) have been maturely developed and widely used over the last several decades. More recently, there has been a growing interest by the research community to explore the use of radar-based rainfall products for developing PFE and understand the associated uncertainties. This study will use radar-based multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE) for 11 years to derive PFE's corresponding to various return periods over a spatial domain that covers the state of Louisiana in southern USA. The PFE estimation approach used in this study is based on fitting generalized extreme value distribution to hydrologic extreme rainfall data based on annual maximum series (AMS). Some of the estimation problems that may arise from fitting GEV distributions at each radar pixel is the large variance and seriously biased quantile estimators. Hence, a regional frequency analysis approach (RFA) is applied. The RFA involves the use of data from different pixels surrounding each pixel within a defined homogenous region. In this study, region of influence approach along with the index flood technique are used in the RFA. A bootstrap technique procedure is carried out to account for the uncertainty in the distribution parameters to construct 90% confidence intervals (i.e., 5% and 95% confidence limits) on AMS-based precipitation frequency curves.

Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C

USGS Publications Warehouse

England, John F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Faber, Beth A.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Thomas, Wilbert O.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason, Robert R.

2018-03-29

Accurate estimates of flood frequency and magnitude are a key component of any effective nationwide flood risk management and flood damage abatement program. In addition to accuracy, methods for estimating flood risk must be uniformly and consistently applied because management of the Nation’s water and related land resources is a collaborative effort involving multiple actors including most levels of government and the private sector.Flood frequency guidelines have been published in the United States since 1967, and have undergone periodic revisions. In 1967, the U.S. Water Resources Council presented a coherent approach to flood frequency with Bulletin 15, “A Uniform Technique for Determining Flood Flow Frequencies.” The method it recommended involved fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution to annual peak flow data by the method of moments.The first extension and update of Bulletin 15 was published in 1976 as Bulletin 17, “Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency” (Guidelines). It extended the Bulletin 15 procedures by introducing methods for dealing with outliers, historical flood information, and regional skew. Bulletin 17A was published the following year to clarify the computation of weighted skew. The next revision of the Bulletin, the Bulletin 17B, provided a host of improvements and new techniques designed to address situations that often arise in practice, including better methods for estimating and using regional skew, weighting station and regional skew, detection of outliers, and use of the conditional probability adjustment.The current version of these Guidelines are presented in this document, denoted Bulletin 17C. It incorporates changes motivated by four of the items listed as “Future Work” in Bulletin 17B and 30 years of post-17B research on flood processes and statistical methods. The updates include: adoption of a generalized representation of flood data that allows for interval and censored data types; a new method, called the Expected Moments Algorithm, which extends the method of moments so that it can accommodate interval data; a generalized approach to identification of low outliers in flood data; and an improved method for computing confidence intervals.Federal agencies are requested to use these Guidelines in all planning activities involving water and related land resources. State, local, and private organizations are encouraged to use these Guidelines to assure uniformity in the flood frequency estimates that all agencies concerned with flood risk should use for Federal planning decisions.This revision is adopted with the knowledge and understanding that review of these procedures will be ongoing. Updated methods will be adopted when warranted by experience and by examination and testing of new techniques.

Quantifying water requirements of riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia: Implications for the management of environmental flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doody, Tanya M.; Colloff, Matthew J.; Davies, Micah; Koul, Vijay; Benyon, Richard G.; Nagler, Pamela L.

2015-01-01

Water resource development and drought have altered river flow regimes, increasing average flood return intervals across floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, causing health declines in riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) forests and woodlands. Environmental flow allocations helped to alleviate water stress during the recent Millennium Drought (1997–2010), however, quantification of the flood frequency required to support healthy E. camaldulensis communities is still needed. We quantified water requirements of E. camaldulensis for two years across a flood gradient (trees inundated at frequencies of 1:2, 1:5 and 1:10 years) at Yanga National Park, New South Wales to help inform management decision-making and design of environmental flows. Sap flow, evaporative losses and soil moisture measurements were used to determine transpiration, evapotranspiration and plant-available soil water before and after flooding. A formula was developed using plant-available soil water post-flooding and average annual rainfall, to estimate maintenance time of soil water reserves in each flood frequency zone. Results indicated that soil water reserves could sustain 1:2 and 1:5 trees for 15 months and six years, respectively. Trees regulated their transpiration rates, allowing them to persist within their flood frequency zone, and showed reduction in active sapwood area and transpiration rates when flood frequencies exceeded 1:2 years. A leaf area index of 0.5 was identified as a potential threshold indicator of severe drought stress. Our results suggest environmental water managers may have greater flexibility to adaptively manage floodplains in order to sustain E. camaldulensis forests and woodlands than has been appreciated hitherto.

Preliminary flood-frequency relations for small streams in Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irza, T.J.

1966-01-01

Preliminary flood-frequency relations have been defined for small streams in Kansas for floods having recurrence intervals not greater than 10 years. The defined relations will be useful for the design of culverts and other hydraulic structures. The relations are expressed in terms of basin characteristics.Peakflow records at 95 sites in Kansas for an 8-year period provided the basic data. The records were analyzed with respect to 20 basin characteristics by multiple-regression techniques. The resulting formulas relate flood magnitude and frequency to size of contributing drainage area, an index of stream-bed slope, and the average number of days per year when rainfall exceeded 1.0 inch. The other 17 factors had no statistical significance.To illustrate a typical application of the flood-frequency relation, a step-bystep method is presented for computing a frequency curve for Rock Creek near Meriden, Kans. The frequency curve shows that a peak discharge of 3,620 cfs (cubic feet per second) can be expected once every 10 years on the average, and that the 67 percent confidence interval ranges from 1,820 cfs to 7,230 cfs. The large range results from the fact that only 8 years of record have been collected and emphasizes the need for collecting records for a longer period.

Lagtime relations for urban streams in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Ernest J.

2000-01-01

Urban flood hydrographs are needed for the design of many highway drainage structures, embankments, and entrances to detention ponds. The three components that are needed to simulate urban flood hydrographs at ungaged sites are the design flood, the dimensionless hydrograph, and lagtime. The design flood and the dimensionless hydrograph have been presented in earlier studies for urban streams in Georgia. The objective of this study was to develop equations for estimating lagtime for urban streams in Georgia. Lagtimes were computed for 329 floods at 69 urban gaging stations in 11 cities in Georgia. These data were used to compute an average lagtime for each gaging station. Multiple regression analysis was then used to define relations between lagtime and certain physical basin characteristics, of which drainage area, slope, and impervious area were found to be significant. A qualitative variable was used to account for a geographical bias in flood-frequency region 4, a small area of southwestern Georgia. Information from this report can be used to simulate a flood hydrograph using a dimensionless hydrograph, the design flood, and the lagtime obtained from regression equations for any urban site with less than a 25-square-mile drainage area in Georgia.

Human activity and damaging landslides and floods on Madeira Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baioni, D.

2011-11-01

Over the last few decades, the island of Madeira has become an important offshore tourism and business center, with rapid economic and demographic development that has caused changes to the landscape due to human activity. In Madeira's recent history, there has been an increase over time in the frequency of occurrence of damaging landslide and flood events. As a result, the costs of restoration work due to damage caused by landslide and flood events have become a larger and larger component of Madeira's annual budget. Landslides and floods in Madeira deserve particular attention because they represent the most serious hazard to human life, to property, and to the natural environment and its important heritage value. The work reported on in this paper involved the analysis of historical data regarding damaging landslide and flood events on Madeira (in particular from 1941 to 1991) together with data on geological characteristics, topographic features, and climate, and from field observations. This analysis showed that the main factor triggering the occurrence of damaging landslide and flood events is rainfall, but that the increase in the number of damaging events recorded on Madeira Island, especially in recent times, seems to be related mostly to human activity, specifically to economic development and population growth, rather than to natural factors.

DamaGIS: a multisource geodatabase for collection of flood-related damage data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Javelle, Pierre; Vinet, Freddy

2018-06-01

Every year in France, recurring flood events result in several million euros of damage, and reducing the heavy consequences of floods has become a high priority. However, actions to reduce the impact of floods are often hindered by the lack of damage data on past flood events. The present paper introduces a new database for collection and assessment of flood-related damage. The DamaGIS database offers an innovative bottom-up approach to gather and identify damage data from multiple sources, including new media. The study area has been defined as the south of France considering the high frequency of floods over the past years. This paper presents the structure and contents of the database. It also presents operating instructions in order to keep collecting damage data within the database. This paper also describes an easily reproducible method to assess the severity of flood damage regardless of the location or date of occurrence. A first analysis of the damage contents is also provided in order to assess data quality and the relevance of the database. According to this analysis, despite its lack of comprehensiveness, the DamaGIS database presents many advantages. Indeed, DamaGIS provides a high accuracy of data as well as simplicity of use. It also has the additional benefit of being accessible in multiple formats and is open access. The DamaGIS database is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1241089.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beckman, Emil W.

1976-01-01

Observed maximum flood peaks at 303 gaging stations with 13 or more years of record and significant peaks at 57 short-term stations and 31 miscellaneous sites are useful in designing flood-control works for maximum safety from flood damage. Comparison is made with maximum observed floods in the United States.

Extent and frequency of floods on Delaware River in vicinity of Belvidere, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farlekas, George M.

1966-01-01

A stream overflowing its banks is a natural phenomenon. This natural phenomenon of flooding has occurred on the Delaware River in the past and will occur in the future. T' o resulting inundation of large areas can cause property damage, business losses and possible loss of life, and may result in emergency costs for protection, rescue, and salvage work. For optimum development of the river valley consistent with the flood risk, an evaluation of flood conditions is necessary. Basic data and the interpretation of the data on the regimen of the streams, particularly the magnitude of floods to be expected, the frequency of their occurrence, and the areas inundated, are essential for planning and development of flood-prone areas.This report presents information relative to the extent, depth, and frequency of floods on the Delaware River and its tributaries in the vicinity of Belvidere, N.J. Flooding on the tributaries detailed in the report pertains only to the effect of backwater from the Delaware River. Data are presented for several past floods with emphasis given to the floods of August 19, 1955 and May 24, 1942. In addition, information is given for a hypothetical flood based on the flood of August 19, 1955 modified by completed (since 1955) and planned flood-control works.By use of relations presented in this report the extent, depth, and frequency of flooding can be estimated for any site along the reach of the Delaware River under study. Flood data and the evaluation of the data are presented so that local and regional agencies, organizations, and individuals may have a technical basis for making decisions on the use of flood-prone areas. The Delaware River Basin Commission and the U.S. Geological Survey regard this program of flood-plain inundation studies as a positive step toward flood-damage prevention. Flood-plain inundation studies, when followed by appropriate land-use regulations, are a valuable and economical supplement to physical works for flood control, such as dams and levees. Both physical works and flood-plain regulations are included in the comprehensive plans for development of the Delaware River basin.Recommendations for land use, or suggestions for limitations of land use, are not made herein. Other reports on recommended general use and regulation of land in flood-prone areas are available (Dola, 1961; White, 1961; American Society of Civil Engineers Task Force on Flood Plain Regulations, 1962; and Goddard, 1963). The primary responsibility for planning for the optimum land use in the flood plain and the implementation of flood-plain zoning or other regulations to achieve such optimum use rest with the state and local interests. The preparation of this report was undertaken after consultation with representatives of the Lehigh-Northampton Counties, Pennsylvania, Joint Planning Commission and the Warren County, New Jersey, Regional Planning Board and after both had demonstrated their need for flood-plain information and their willingness to consider flood-plain regulations.

Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of 1-, 3-, 7-, 15-, and 30-day flood-duration flows in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

2014-01-01

Regression equations, which allow predictions of n-day flood-duration flows for selected annual exceedance probabilities at ungaged sites, were developed using generalized least-squares regression and flood-duration flow frequency estimates at 56 streamgaging stations within a single, relatively uniform physiographic region in the central part of Arizona, between the Colorado Plateau and Basin and Range Province, called the Transition Zone. Drainage area explained most of the variation in the n-day flood-duration annual exceedance probabilities, but mean annual precipitation and mean elevation were also significant variables in the regression models. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations varies from 28 to 53 percent and generally decreases with increasing n-day duration. Outside the Transition Zone there are insufficient streamgaging stations to develop regression equations, but flood-duration flow frequency estimates are presented at select streamgaging stations.

Nationwide summary of US Geological Survey regional regression equations for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites, 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jennings, M.E.; Thomas, W.O.; Riggs, H.C.

1994-01-01

For many years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been involved in the development of regional regression equations for estimating flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. These regression equations are used to transfer flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally these equations have been developed on a statewide or metropolitan area basis as part of cooperative study programs with specific State Departments of Transportation or specific cities. The USGS, in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, has compiled all the current (as of September 1993) statewide and metropolitan area regression equations into a micro-computer program titled the National Flood Frequency Program.This program includes regression equations for estimating flood-peak discharges and techniques for estimating a typical flood hydrograph for a given recurrence interval peak discharge for unregulated rural and urban watersheds. These techniques should be useful to engineers and hydrologists for planning and design applications. This report summarizes the statewide regression equations for rural watersheds in each State, summarizes the applicable metropolitan area or statewide regression equations for urban watersheds, describes the National Flood Frequency Program for making these computations, and provides much of the reference information on the extrapolation variables needed to run the program.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in small drainage basins in Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, C.A.; Harenberg, W.A.; Anderson, J.M.

1973-01-01

A method is presented in this report for determining magnitude and frequency of floods on streams with drainage areas between 0.5 and 200 square miles. The method relates basin characteristics, including drainage area, percentage of forest cover, percentage of water area, latitude, and longitude, with peak flow characteristics. Regression equations for each of eight regions are presented for determination of QIQ/ the peak discharge, which, on the average, will be exceeded once in 10 years. Peak flows, Q25 and Q 50 , can then be estimated from Q25/Q10 and Q-50/Q-10 ratios developed for each region. Nomographs are included which solve the equations for basins between 1 and 50 square miles. The regional regression equations were developed using multiple regression techniques. Annual peaks for 303 sites were analyzed in the study. These included all records on unregulated streams with drainage areas less than about 500 square miles with 10 years or more of record or which could readily be extended to 10 years on the basis of nearby streams. The log-Pearson Type III method as modified and a digital computer were employed to estimate magnitude and frequency of floods for each of the 303 gaged sites. A large number of physical and climatic basin characteristics were determined for each of the gaged sites. The multiple regression method was then applied to determine the equations relating the floodflows and the most significant basin characteristics. For convenience of the users, several equations were simplified and some complex characteristics were deleted at the sacrifice of some increase in the standard error. Standard errors of estimate and many other statistical data were computed in the analysis process and are available in the Boise district office files. The analysis showed that QIQ was the best defined and most practical index flood for determination of the Q25 and 0,50 flood estimates.Regression equations are not developed because of poor definition for areas which total about 20,000 square miles, most of which are in southern Idaho. These areas are described in the report to prevent use of regression equations where they do not apply. They include urbanized areas, streams affected by regulation or diversion by works of man, unforested areas, streams with gaining or losing reaches, streams draining alluvial valleys and the Snake Plain, intense thunderstorm areas, and scattered areas where records indicate recurring floods which depart from the regional equations. Maximum flows of record and basin locations are summarized in tables and maps. The analysis indicates deficiencies in data exist. To improve knowledge regarding flood characteristics in poorly defined areas, the following data-collection programs are recommended. Gages should be operated on a few selected small streams for an extended period to define floods at long recurrence intervals. Crest-stage gages should be operated in representative basins in urbanized areas, newly developed irrigated areas and grasslands, and in unforested areas. Unusual floods should continue to be measured at miscellaneous sites on regulated streams and in intense thunderstorm-prone areas. The relationship between channel geometry and floodflow characteristics should be investigated as an alternative or supplement to operation of gaging stations. Documentation of historic flood data from newspapers and other sources would improve the basic flood-data base.

Flood frequency approach in a Mediterranean Flash Flood basin. A case study in the Besòs catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velasco, D.; Zanon, F.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Borga, M.

2009-04-01

Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the Mediterranean areas. In particular, the region of Catalonia (North-East Spain) is one of the most affected by flash floods in the Iberian Peninsula. The high rainfall intensities generating these events, the specific terrain characteristics giving rise to very fast hydrological responses and the high variability in space and time of both rain and land surface, are the main features of FF and also the main cause of their extreme complexity. Distributed hydrological models have been developed to increase the flow forecast resolution in order to implement effective operational warning systems. Some studies have shown how the distributed-models accuracy is highly sensitive to reduced computational grid scale, so, hydrological model uncertainties must be studied. In these conditions, an estimation of the modeling uncertainty (whatever the accuracy is) becomes highly valuable information to enhance our ability to predict the occurrence of flash flooding. The statistical-distributed modeling approach (Reed, 2004) is proposed in the present study to simulate floods on a small basin and account for hydrologic modeling uncertainty. The Besòs catchment (1020 km2), near Barcelona, has been selected in this study to apply the proposed flood frequency methodology. Hydrometeorological data is available for 11 rain-gauges and 6 streamflow gauges in the last 12 years, and a total of 9 flood events have been identified and analyzed in this study. The DiCHiTop hydrological model (Corral, 2004) was developed to fit operational requirements in the Besòs catchment: distributed, robust and easy to implement. It is a grid-based model that works at a given resolution (here at 1 × 1 km2, the hydrological cell), defining a simplified drainage system at this scale. A loss function is applied at the hydrological cell resolution, provided by a coupled storage model between the SCS model (Mockus, 1957) in urban areas and Topmodel (Beven & Kirkby, 1979) in rural and forested areas. The distributed hydrological model is calibrated using observed streamflow information from the available events. Simulated peak discharges are then compared to observed discharges in these gauged cells, so the relative forecast errors are estimated for all the events. Flood frequency is introduced in the analysis in order to derive probability functions for relative flow error. The next step consists in the extension of the flood frequency error patterns to the corresponding subbasins so it is possible to characterize the accuracy of the simulation in the uncalibrated cells (typically ungaged basins). As a result, the operational flood simulation at every cell in the Besos catchment can be checked and validated (in a first approach) in terms of occurrence. Thus, the distributed warning system can take advantage of the modeling uncertainties for operational tasks.

Long-term dynamics emerging in floodplains and deltas from the interactions between hydrology and society in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Yan, Kun; Brandimarte, Luigia; Blöschl, Günter

2014-05-01

Economic losses and fatalities associated to flood events have increased dramatically over the past decades. This situation might worsen in the near future because of rapid urbanization of many floodplains and deltas, along with enhancement of flood water levels as a result of human interventions, climate variability or sea level rise. To explore future dynamics, we developed a novel approach, which takes into account the dynamic nature of flood risk by an explicit treatment of the interactions and feedbacks between the hydrological and social components of flood risk (i.e. probability of flooding, and potential adverse consequences). In particular, we developed a socio-hydrological model that allows considering how the frequency and magnitude of flooding shapes the evolution of societies, while, at the same time, dynamic societies shape the frequency and magnitude of flooding. We then use this model to simulate long-term dynamics of different types of societies under hydrological change, e.g. increasing flood frequency. Based on the study of long-term dynamics of different floodplains and deltas around the world (e.g. Netherlands, Bangladesh), we identify two main typologies of flood-shaped societies: i) techno-societies, which "fight floods", and typically deal with risk by building and strengthening flood protection structures, such as levees or dikes; and ii) green-societies, which "lives with floods", and mainly cope with risk via adaptation measures, such as resettling out of flood prone areas. The outcomes of this study are relevant for the management of deltas and floodplains as they allow a comparison of long-term dynamics between diverse types of societies in terms of robustness to hydrological change.

Review article: A review and critical analysis of the efforts towards urban flood risk management in the Lagos region of Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nkwunonwo, U. C.; Whitworth, M.; Baily, B.

2016-02-01

Urban flooding has been and will continue to be a significant problem for many cities across the developed and developing world. Crucial to the amelioration of the effects of these floods is the need to formulate a sound flood management policy, which is driven by knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of impacts of these floods. Within the area of flood research, attempts are being made to gain a better understanding of the causes, impacts, and pattern of urban flooding. According to the United Nations office for disaster reduction (UNISDR), flood risk is conceptualized on the basis of three integral components which are frequently adopted during flood damage estimation. These components are: probability of flood hazard, the level of exposure, and vulnerabilities of elements at risk. Reducing the severity of each of these components is the objective of flood risk management under the UNISDR guideline and idea of "living with floods". On the basis of this framework, the present research reviews flood risk within the Lagos area of Nigeria over the period 1968-2012. During this period, floods have caused harm to millions of people physically, emotionally, and economically. Arguably over this period the efforts of stakeholders to address the challenges appear to have been limited by, amongst other things, a lack of reliable data, a lack of awareness amongst the population affected, and a lack of knowledge of flood risk mitigation. It is the aim of this research to assess the current understanding of flood risk and management in Lagos and to offer recommendations towards future guidance.

The 1993 Mississippi river flood: A one hundred or a one thousand year event?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Malamud, B.D.; Turcotte, D.L.; Barton, C.C.

1996-01-01

Power-law (fractal) extreme-value statistics are applicable to many natural phenomena under a wide variety of circumstances. Data from a hydrologic station in Keokuk, Iowa, shows the great flood of the Mississippi River in 1993 has a recurrence interval on the order of 100 years using power-law statistics applied to partial-duration flood series and on the order of 1,000 years using a log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution applied to annual series. The LP3 analysis is the federally adopted probability distribution for flood-frequency estimation of extreme events. We suggest that power-law statistics are preferable to LP3 analysis. As a further test of the power-law approach we consider paleoflood data from the Colorado River. We compare power-law and LP3 extrapolations of historical data with these paleo-floods. The results are remarkably similar to those obtained for the Mississippi River: Recurrence intervals from power-law statistics applied to Lees Ferry discharge data are generally consistent with inferred 100- and 1,000-year paleofloods, whereas LP3 analysis gives recurrence intervals that are orders of magnitude longer. For both the Keokuk and Lees Ferry gauges, the use of an annual series introduces an artificial curvature in log-log space that leads to an underestimate of severe floods. Power-law statistics are predicting much shorter recurrence intervals than the federally adopted LP3 statistics. We suggest that if power-law behavior is applicable, then the likelihood of severe floods is much higher. More conservative dam designs and land-use restrictions Nay be required.

Visual Sensing for Urban Flood Monitoring

PubMed Central

Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

2015-01-01

With the increasing climatic extremes, the frequency and severity of urban flood events have intensified worldwide. In this study, image-based automated monitoring of flood formation and analyses of water level fluctuation were proposed as value-added intelligent sensing applications to turn a passive monitoring camera into a visual sensor. Combined with the proposed visual sensing method, traditional hydrological monitoring cameras have the ability to sense and analyze the local situation of flood events. This can solve the current problem that image-based flood monitoring heavily relies on continuous manned monitoring. Conventional sensing networks can only offer one-dimensional physical parameters measured by gauge sensors, whereas visual sensors can acquire dynamic image information of monitored sites and provide disaster prevention agencies with actual field information for decision-making to relieve flood hazards. The visual sensing method established in this study provides spatiotemporal information that can be used for automated remote analysis for monitoring urban floods. This paper focuses on the determination of flood formation based on image-processing techniques. The experimental results suggest that the visual sensing approach may be a reliable way for determining the water fluctuation and measuring its elevation and flood intrusion with respect to real-world coordinates. The performance of the proposed method has been confirmed; it has the capability to monitor and analyze the flood status, and therefore, it can serve as an active flood warning system. PMID:26287201

Spatio-temporal analysis of the extreme precipitation by the L-moment-based index-flood method in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yixing; Chen, Haishan; Xu, Chongyu; Xu, Wucheng; Chen, Changchun

2014-05-01

The regionalization methods which 'trade space for time' by including several at-site data records in the frequency analysis are an efficient tool to improve the reliability of extreme quantile estimates. With the main aims of improving the understanding of the regional frequency of extreme precipitation and providing scientific and practical background and assistance in formulating the regional development strategies for water resources management in one of the most developed and flood-prone regions in China, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region, in this paper, L-moment-based index-flood (LMIF) method, one of the popular regionalization methods, is used in the regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation; attention was paid to inter-site dependence and its influence on the accuracy of quantile estimates, which hasn't been considered for most of the studies using LMIF method. Extensive data screening of stationarity, serial dependence and inter-site dependence was carried out first. The entire YRD region was then categorized into four homogeneous regions through cluster analysis and homogenous analysis. Based on goodness-of-fit statistic and L-moment ratio diagrams, Generalized extreme-value (GEV) and Generalized Normal (GNO) distributions were identified as the best-fit distributions for most of the sub regions. Estimated quantiles for each region were further obtained. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the accuracy of the quantile estimates taking inter-site dependence into consideration. The results showed that the root mean square errors (RMSEs) were bigger and the 90% error bounds were wider with inter-site dependence than those with no inter-site dependence for both the regional growth curve and quantile curve. The spatial patterns of extreme precipitation with return period of 100 years were obtained which indicated that there are two regions with the highest precipitation extremes (southeastern coastal area of Zhejiang Province and the southwest part of Anhui Province) and a large region with low precipitation extremes in the north and middle parts of Zhejiang Province, Shanghai City and Jiangsu Province. However, the central areas with low precipitation extremes are the most developed and densely populated regions in the study area, thus floods will cause great loss of human life and property damage. These findings will contribute to formulating the regional development strategies for policymakers and stakeholders in water resource management against the menaces of frequently emerged floods.

Flood frequency analysis using optimization techniques : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-10-01

this study consists of three parts. In the first part, a comprehensive investigation was made to find an improved estimation method for the log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) distribution by using optimization techniques. Ninety sets of observed Louisiana floo...

Paleohydrologic techniques used to define the spatial occurrence of floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, R.D.

1990-01-01

Defining the cause and spatial characteristics of floods may be difficult because of limited streamflow and precipitation data. New paleohydrologic techniques that incorporate information from geomorphic, sedimentologic, and botanic studies provide important supplemental information to define homogeneous hydrologic regions. These techniques also help to define the spatial structure of rainstorms and floods and improve regional flood-frequency estimates. The occurrence and the non-occurrence of paleohydrologic evidence of floods, such as flood bars, alluvial fans, and tree scars, provide valuable hydrologic information. The paleohydrologic research to define the spatial characteristics of floods improves the understanding of flood hydrometeorology. This research was used to define the areal extent and contributing drainage area of flash floods in Colorado. Also, paleohydrologic evidence was used to define the spatial boundaries for the Colorado foothills region in terms of the meteorologic cause of flooding and elevation. In general, above 2300 m, peak flows are caused by snowmelt. Below 2300 m, peak flows primarily are caused by rainfall. The foothills region has an upper elevation limit of about 2300 m and a lower elevation limit of about 1500 m. Regional flood-frequency estimates that incorporate the paleohydrologic information indicate that the Big Thompson River flash flood of 1976 had a recurrence interval of approximately 10,000 years. This contrasts markedly with 100 to 300 years determined by using conventional hydrologic analyses. Flood-discharge estimates based on rainfall-runoff methods in the foothills of Colorado result in larger values than those estimated with regional flood-frequency relations, which are based on long-term streamflow data. Preliminary hydrologic and paleohydrologic research indicates that intense rainfall does not occur at higher elevations in other Rocky Mountain states and that the highest elevations for rainfall-producing floods vary by latitude. The study results have implications for floodplain management and design of hydraulic structures in the mountains of Colorado and other Rocky Mountain States. ?? 1990.

The Complexities of Urban Flood Response: Hydrologic Analyses for the Charlotte, North Carolina Metropolitan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z.; Smith, J. A.; Yang, L.; Baeck, M. L.; Liu, S.; Ten Veldhuis, M. C.

2016-12-01

The objective of this study is to develop a broad characterization of land surface and hydrometeorological controls of urban flood frequency. We focus on a collection of "small" urban watersheds (with drainage area ranging from 7 to 200 km2) in Charlotte metropolitan region, North Carolina. These watersheds are contrasted by a variety of land surface properties, such as size, shape, land use/land cover type, impervious coverage pattern, stormwater infrastructure, etc. We carried out empirical analyses based on long-term (15 years), high-resolution (1 15 minutes) instantaneous USGS stream gaging observations as well as bias-corrected, high-resolution (1 km2, 15 min) radar rainfall fields developed through the Hydro-NEXRAD system. Extreme floods in Charlotte urban watersheds are primarily induced by a mixture of flood agents including warm season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones, which ultimately contributed to the upper-tail properties of flood frequency. Flood response in urban watersheds is dominantly dictated by space-time characteristics of rainfall, with relatively significant correlation between runoff and rainfall over more developed watersheds. The roles of antecedent soil moisture and stormwater management infrastructure in flood response are also contrasted across the urban watersheds. The largest variability of flood response, in terms of flood peak and timing, exists in the watershed at a scale of 100 km2. The scale-dependent hydrological response is closely related to the pattern and evolution of urban development across watersheds. Our analyses show the complexities of urban flood response in Charlotte metropolitan region. There are no simple metrics that could perfectly explain the contrasts in flood response across urban watersheds. Future research is directed towards sophisticated modeling studies for a predictive understanding of flood frequency in urban watersheds.

Cahokia’s emergence and decline coincided with shifts of flood frequency on the Mississippi River

PubMed Central

Munoz, Samuel E.; Gruley, Kristine E.; Massie, Ashtin; Fike, David A.; Schroeder, Sissel; Williams, John W.

2015-01-01

Here we establish the timing of major flood events of the central Mississippi River over the last 1,800 y, using floodwater sediments deposited in two floodplain lakes. Shifts in the frequency of high-magnitude floods are mediated by moisture availability over midcontinental North America and correspond to the emergence and decline of Cahokia—a major late prehistoric settlement in the Mississippi River floodplain. The absence of large floods from A.D. 600 to A.D. 1200 facilitated agricultural intensification, population growth, and settlement expansion across the floodplain that are associated with the emergence of Cahokia as a regional center around A.D. 1050. The return of large floods after A.D. 1200, driven by waning midcontinental aridity, marks the onset of sociopolitical reorganization and depopulation that culminate in the abandonment of Cahokia and the surrounding region by A.D. 1350. Shifts in the frequency and magnitude of flooding may be an underappreciated but critical factor in the formation and dissolution of social complexity in early agricultural societies. PMID:25941363

Two millennia of torrential activity reconstructed from alpine lake sediments: towards regional patterns of extreme precipitation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilhelm, B.; Arnaud, F.; Giguet-Covex, C.; Sabatier, P.; Crouzet, C.; Delannoy, J. J.

2012-04-01

In mountain areas extreme precipitation events trigger torrential floods, characterized by a sudden and intense rise of discharge causing large human and economic losses. Their frequency and/or intensity are expected to increase in the context of global warming. However, the relationship between such events and climate changes remains difficult to assess. Long-term geological records of intense events could enable to extend documented records beyond the observational data for a better understanding of local to regional flood hazard patterns in relation to past climatic changes and hence improving predictive models. In this context, lake sediment records appear a relevant archive as they are continuous records in which the identification of high-energy sediment layers allows to reconstruct flood calendar. In addition, the flood intensity can be reconstructed from the coarse fraction of each flood layer. Frequency and intensity of past torrential floods were thus reconstructed from four high-elevation lake records of the French Alps, in the framework of Pygmalion research program. Studied sites were selected along a north-south transect over this region to investigate the flooding responses to different climatic influences (westerlies in the north and Mediterranean influences in the south). High-resolution geochemical and sedimentological analyses were undertaken for an exhaustive identification of flood layers and several dating methods (short-lived radionuclides, 14C, correlation with historic events, paleomagnetism) were combined to reduce age uncertainties as much as possible. Over the entire French Alps, the torrential-flood frequency increases at a secular timescale during the cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1300-1900 AD). This increase seems in agreement with a regional high wetness, already described in the literature, possibly related to an increase in cyclonic activity. Superimposed to this secular trend, a pluri-decadal variability appears at different times depending on the site location (i.e. north-western or southern French Alps). In the north, peaks of flood frequency match well with high summer temperatures, while in the south they seem to be associated to solar maxima and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, the most extreme events occur during the warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (800-1300 AD) in the north while in the south the intensity of these events increases during the cold LIA period. Our results reveal major differences in the evolutions of the torrential-flood activity at a regional scale. This suggests that extreme precipitations over this part of the Alps are influenced by different forcing factors. In the north-western French Alps, warming seems to plays an important role, favouring the increase of both flood frequency and intensity at a pluri-decadal time scale. Inversely, at the same time scale, in the Southern French Alps, flood frequency and intensity seem to be strongly linked to meso-scale atmospheric circulations in relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (see abstract from Wilhelm et al. in session CL4.3 for details). Our study hence suggests one should expect a generalised decrease of torrential flood frequency all around the Alps. However, in northern French Alps only, an increase in torrential flood intensity is expected by analogy with the MWP pattern.

Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, Brenden; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Feyen, Luc; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Mechler, Reinhard; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Bouwer, Laurens M.; Pflug, Georg; Rojas, Rodrigo; Ward, Philip J.

2014-04-01

Recent major flood disasters have shown that single extreme events can affect multiple countries simultaneously, which puts high pressure on trans-national risk reduction and risk transfer mechanisms. So far, little is known about such flood hazard interdependencies across regions and the corresponding joint risks at regional to continental scales. Reliable information on correlated loss probabilities is crucial for developing robust insurance schemes and public adaptation funds, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. Here we show that extreme discharges are strongly correlated across European river basins. We present probabilistic trends in continental flood risk, and demonstrate that observed extreme flood losses could more than double in frequency by 2050 under future climate change and socio-economic development. We suggest that risk management for these increasing losses is largely feasible, and we demonstrate that risk can be shared by expanding risk transfer financing, reduced by investing in flood protection, or absorbed by enhanced solidarity between countries. We conclude that these measures have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications, which need to be taken into account in broader consultation, for which our analysis provides a basis.

Changes of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Z. W.; Stoffel, M.; Wyżga, B.; Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Niedźwiedź, T.; Kaczka, R.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Pińskwar, I.; Łupikasza, E.; Zawiejska, J.; Mikuś, P.; Choryński, A.; Hajdukiewicz, H.; Spyt, B.; Janecka, K.

2017-08-01

The present paper reviews selected outcomes of the FLORIST project devoted to flood risk in the region of the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains in Poland and summarizes novel results. The project encompassed theoretical, field, and modeling work. It was focused around observation-based hydroclimatology; projections for the future; dendrogeomorphology; as well as influence of transport of large wood on fluvial processes. The project improved understanding and interpreting changes in high-flow frequency and magnitude as well as changes in flood risk in the region, related to the presence of large wood in mountain streams. A unique database on past episodes of intense precipitation and flooding was created, harnessing multiple sources. The project showed that the analysis of tree rings and wood logs can offer useful information, complementing and considerably enriching the knowledge of river floods in the region of northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains. Retrospective and scenario-defined modeling of selected past fluvial events in the region was also performed.

Techniques for estimating flood-depth frequency relations for streams in West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiley, J.B.

1987-01-01

Multiple regression analyses are applied to data from 119 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow stations to develop equations that estimate baseline depth (depth of 50% flow duration) and 100-yr flood depth on unregulated streams in West Virginia. Drainage basin characteristics determined from the 100-yr flood depth analysis were used to develop 2-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 500-yr regional flood depth equations. Two regions with distinct baseline depth equations and three regions with distinct flood depth equations are delineated. Drainage area is the most significant independent variable found in the central and northern areas of the state where mean basin elevation also is significant. The equations are applicable to any unregulated site in West Virginia where values of independent variables are within the range evaluated for the region. Examples of inapplicable sites include those in reaches below dams, within and directly upstream from bridge or culvert constrictions, within encroached reaches, in karst areas, and where streams flow through lakes or swamps. (Author 's abstract)

Assessment of Vulnerability to Extreme Flash Floods in Design Storms

PubMed Central

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-01-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years. PMID:21845165

Assessment of vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms.

PubMed

Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

2011-07-01

There has been an increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration caused by heavy or excessive rainfall intensity over a small area, which presents the greatest potential danger threat to the natural environment, human life, public health and property, etc. Such flash floods have rapid runoff and debris flow that rises quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage. This study develops a flash flood index through the average of the same scale relative severity factors quantifying characteristics of hydrographs generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the long-term observed rainfall data in a small ungauged study basin, and presents regression equations between rainfall characteristics and the flash flood index. The aim of this study is to develop flash flood index-duration-frequency relation curves by combining the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relation and the flash flood index from probability rainfall data in order to evaluate vulnerability to extreme flash floods in design storms. This study is an initial effort to quantify the flash flood severity of design storms for both existing and planned flood control facilities to cope with residual flood risks due to extreme flash floods that have ocurred frequently in recent years.

Floods in the Raccoon River basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, Albert J.

1980-01-01

Evaluation of flood hazards, and the planning, design, and operation of various facilities on flood plains requires information on floods. This report provides information on flood stages and discharges, flood magnitude and frequency, bench mark data, and flood profiles for the Raccoon River and some of its tributaries. Ir covers the Raccoon River, the North Raccoon River to the northern boundary of Sac County and the lower reaches of the Middle and South Raccoon Rivers.

Evaluation of the flood hydrology in the Colorado Front Range using precipitation, streamflow, and paleoflood data for the Big Thompson River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, R.D.; Costa, J.E.

1988-01-01

A multidisciplinary study of precipitation and streamflow data and paleohydrologic studies of channel features was made to analyze the flood hydrology of foothill and mountain streams in the Front Range of Colorado, with emphasis on the Big Thompson River basin, because conventional hydrologic analyses do not adequately characterize the flood hydrology. In the foothills of Colorado, annual floodflows are derived from snowmelt at high elevations in the mountain regions, from rainfall at low elevation in the plains or plateau regions, or from a combination of rain falling on snow or mixed population hydrology. Above approximately 7,500 ft, snowmelt dominates; rain does not contribute to the flood potential. Regional flood-frequency relations were developed and compared with conventional flood-estimating technique results, including an evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of the probable maximum flood. Evaluation of streamflow data and paleoflood investigations provide an alternative for evaluating flood hydrology and the safety of dams. The study indicates the need for additional data collection and research to understand the complexities of the flood hydrology in mountainous regions, especially its effects on flood-plain management and the design of structures in the flood plain. (USGS)

Response of plant productivity to experimental flooding in a stable and a submerging marsh

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirwan, Matthew L.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2015-01-01

Recent models of tidal marsh evolution rely largely on the premise that plants are most productive at an optimal flooding regime that occurs when soil elevations are somewhere between mean sea level and mean high tide. Here, we use 4 years of manipulative “marsh organ” flooding experiments to test the generality of this conceptual framework and to examine how the optimal flooding frequency may change between years and locations. In our experiments, above and belowground growth of Schoenoplectus americanus was most rapid when flooded about 40% of the time in a rapidly submerging marsh and when flooded about 25% of the time in a historically stable marsh. Optimum flooding durations were nearly identical in each year of the experiment and did not differ for above and belowground growth. In contrast, above and belowground growth of Spartina patensdecreased monotonically with increased flooding in all years and at both sites, indicating no optimal flooding frequency or elevation relative to sea level. Growth patterns in both species suggest a wider tolerance to flooding, and greater biomass for a given flooding duration, in the rapidly deteriorating marsh.

"Flooding Risk Analysis and the Understanding of Hydrological Disturbance due to the Rapid Urbanization in a Low-Scale Subwatershed in Houston Area". ( The project develops a relavant Model of flooding risk assessment to define the connection between increased streamflow/flooding and the rapid urban land development).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geldiyev, P.

2017-12-01

Rapid urban development and changing climate influences the frequency and magnitude of flooding in Houston area. This proposed project aims to evaluate the flooding risks with the current and future land use changes by 2040 for one subbasin of the San Jacinto Brazos/Neches-Trinity Coastal basin. Surface environments and streamflow data of the Clear Creek are analyzed and stimulated to discuss the possible impact of urbanization on the occurrence of floods. The streamflow data is analyzed and simulated with the application of the Geographic Information Systems and its extensions. Both hydrologic and hydraulic models of the Clear Creek are created with the use of HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS software. Both models are duplicated for the year 2040, based on projected 2040 Landcover Maps developed by Houston and Galveston Area Council. This project examines a type of contemporary hydrologic disturbance and the interaction between land cover and changes in hydrological processes. Expected results will be very significant for urban development and flooding management.

Lake Sediments show the Frequency of 21st Century Extreme Flooding in the UK is Unprecedented

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiverrell, R. C.; Sear, D. A.; Warburton, J.; Macdonald, N.; Schillereff, D. N.; Dearing, J.; Croudace, I. W. C.

2016-12-01

Flooding in northwest England has been reconstructed from the coarse grained units preserved in lake sediment sequences at Bassenthwaite Lake, a record that includes the floods of December 2015 (Storm Desmond) and November 2009 and shows they were the most extreme in over 600 years. The inception and propagation of a lake sediment flood event horizon in the aftermath of the December 2015 storms in the UK has been explored as part of NERC Urgency Grant that focuses on Bassenthwaite Lake, Brotherswater, Buttermere and Ullswater. Our approach involves repeat coring of locations over 6-12 months, sediment trapping, and testing how this recent extreme event has settled into the sediment record. For Bassenthwaite Lake linking our new sediment palaeoflood series to river discharges, provides the first assessment of flood frequency and magnitude based on lake sediments for the UK. We show that recent devastating flooding in NW England in 2009 was the largest event in 415 years, had a recurrence interval far larger (1:9000 year) than conventional analysis based on short term records suggest (1:700 year), and occurred during a cluster of floods that is unprecedented in 600 years. Particle size characteristics of flood laminations, after correction for variations in the stability of catchment sediment sources, were correlated on a hydrodynamic basis with recorded river flows. The particle size flood record is underpinned by a robust chronology to CE 1420 derived from radionuclide (Pb210, Am241, and Cs137) dating and correlations to the rich history of metal (Pb, Zn, Ba and Cu) mining in the catchment accurately recorded in the sediment geochemistry. The sediment palaeoflood series reveals five flood rich periods (CE 1460-1500, 1580-1680, 1780-1820, 1850-1925, 1970-present), and these correspond with positive phases of reconstructed winter NAOI and other Atlantic circulation patterns. The hydro-climatology of the extreme events (top 1% of floods) in our series, show that 67% of floods have occurred in the 21st Century during a period of prolonged warmer northern Hemisphere temperatures and positive NAOI winter index. Our approach is widely applicable wherever suitable lakes are found offering the possibility of quantitative long term flood series for different hydroclimatic regions of the world.

Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2011-01-01

California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p <= 0. 01) for all the three GCMs in the period 2051-2099. The frequency of flood events above selected historical thresholds also increases under projections from CNRM CM3 and NCAR PCM1 climate models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

National Dam Safety Program. William H. Luehmann Recreation Pond Dam (Inventory Number N.Y. 1199), Delaware River Basin, Delaware County, New York. Phase I Inspection Report,

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-14

runoff. 5.5 FLOODS OF RECORD No records of past flooding in Sherruck Brook are available. 5.6 OVERTOPPING POTENTIAL Our analysis indicates that the...constructed in 1970 and the 30 inch CIMP drain was replaced with the 18 inch steel drain in 1980. e. Seismic Stability The structure is located in Zone...Commerce, Technical Paper No, 40, Rainfall Frequency Atlas of the United States, May 1961, 2) U.S. Department of Commerce, Hydrometeorological Report

Collaborative GIS for flood susceptibility mapping: An example from Mekong river basin of Viet Nam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanh, B.

2016-12-01

Flooding is one of the most dangerous natural disasters in Vietnam. Floods have caused serious damages to people and made adverse impact on social economic development across the country, especially in lower river basin where there is high risk of flooding as consequences of the climate change and social activities. This paper presents a collaborative platform of a combination of an interactive web-GIS framework and a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) tool. MCE is carried out in server side through web interface, in which parameters used for evaluation are groups into three major categories, including (1) climatic factor: precipitation, typhoon frequency, temperature, humidity (2) physiographic data: DEM, topographic wetness index, NDVI, stream power index, soil texture, distance to river (3) social factor: NDBI, land use pattern. Web-based GIS is based on open-source technology that includes an information page, a page for MCE tool that users can interactively alter parameters in flood susceptible mapping, and a discussion page. The system is designed for local participation in prediction of the flood risk magnitude under impacts of natural processes and human intervention. The proposed flood susceptibility assessment prototype was implemented in the Mekong river basin, Viet Nam. Index images were calculated using Landsat data, and other were collected from authorized agencies. This study shows the potential to combine web-GIS and spatial analysis tool to flood hazard risk assessment. The combination can be a supportive solution that potentially assists the interaction between stakeholders in information exchange and in disaster management, thus provides for better analysis, control and decision-making.

Looking at flood trends with different eyes: the value of a fuzzy flood classification scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikorska, A. E.; Viviroli, D.; Brunner, M. I.; Seibert, J.

2016-12-01

Natural floods can be governed by several processes such as heavy rainfall or intense snow- or glacier-melt. These processes result in different flood characteristics in terms of flood shape and magnitude. Pooling floods of different types might therefore impair the analyses of flood frequencies and trends. Thus, the categorization of flood events into different flood type classes and the determination of their respective frequencies is essential for a better understanding and for the prediction of floods. In reality however most flood events are caused by a mix of processes and a unique determination of a flood type per event often becomes difficult. This study proposes an innovative method for a more reliable categorization of floods according to similarities in flood drivers. The categorization of floods into subgroups relies on a fuzzy decision tree. While the classical (crisp) decision tree allows for the identification of only one flood type per event, the fuzzy approach enables the detection of mixed types. Hence, events are represented as a spectrum of six possible flood types, while a degree of acceptance attributed to each of them specifies the importance of each type during the event formation. Considered types are flash, short rainfall, long rainfall, snow-melt, rainfall-on-snow, and, in high altitude watersheds, also glacier-melt floods. The fuzzy concept also enables uncertainty present in the identification of flood processes and in the method to be incorporated into the flood categorization process. We demonstrate, for a set of nine Swiss watersheds and 30 years of observations, that this new concept provides more reliable flood estimates than the classical approach as it allows for a more dedicated flood prevention technique adapted to a specific flood type.

Climate and floods still govern California levee breaks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Florsheim, J.L.; Dettinger, M.D.

2007-01-01

Even in heavily engineered river systems, climate still governs flood variability and thus still drives many levee breaks and geomorphic changes. We assemble a 155-year record of levee breaks for a major California river system to find that breaks occurred in 25% of years during the 20th Century. A relation between levee breaks and river discharge is present that sets a discharge threshold above which most levee breaks occurred. That threshold corresponds to small floods with recurrence intervals of ???2-3 years. Statistical analysis illustrates that levee breaks and peak discharges cycle (broadly) on a 12-15 year time scale, in time with warm-wet storm patterns in California, but more slowly or more quickly than ENSO and PDO climate phenomena, respectively. Notably, these variations and thresholds persist through the 20th Century, suggesting that historical flood-control effects have not reduced the occurrence or frequency of levee breaks. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Climate and change: simulating flooding impacts on urban transport network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Dawson, Richard

2015-04-01

National-scale climate projections indicate that in the future there will be hotter and drier summers, warmer and wetter winters, together with rising sea levels. The frequency of extreme weather events is expected to increase, causing severe damage to the built environment and disruption of infrastructures (Dawson, 2007), whilst population growth and changed demographics are placing new demands on urban infrastructure. It is therefore essential to ensure infrastructure networks are robust to these changes. This research addresses these challenges by focussing on the development of probabilistic tools for managing risk by modelling urban transport networks within the context of extreme weather events. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of extreme weather events on urban environment, in particular infrastructure networks, through a combination of climate simulations and spatial representations. By overlaying spatial data on hazard thresholds from a flood model and a flood safety function, mitigated by potential adaptation strategies, different levels of disruption to commuting journeys on road networks are evaluated. The method follows the Catastrophe Modelling approach and it consists of a spatial model, combining deterministic loss models and probabilistic risk assessment techniques. It can be applied to present conditions as well as future uncertain scenarios, allowing the examination of the impacts alongside socio-economic and climate changes. The hazard is determined by simulating free surface water flooding, with the software CityCAT (Glenis et al., 2013). The outputs are overlapped to the spatial locations of a simple network model in GIS, which uses journey-to-work (JTW) observations, supplemented with speed and capacity information. To calculate the disruptive effect of flooding on transport networks, a function relating water depth to safe driving car speed has been developed by combining data from experimental reports (Morris et al., 2011) safety literature (Great Britain Department for Transport, 1999), analysis of videos of cars driving through floodwater, and expert judgement. A preliminary analysis has been run in the Tyne & Wear (in North-East England) region to demonstrate how the analysis can be used to assess the disruptions for commuter journeys due to flooding and will be demonstrated in this paper. The research will also investigate the effectiveness of adaptation strategies for extreme rainfall events, such as permeable surfaces and roof storages for buildings. Multiple scenarios (from the every-day-rainfall to the extreme weather phenomena) will be modelled, with different rainfall rates, rainfall durations and return periods. The comparison between the scenarios in which no interventions are adopted and those improved by one of the adaptation option will be compared to determine the cost-effectiveness of the solution considered. Integrating spatial analysis of transport use with an urban flood model and flood safety function enables the investigation of the impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure networks. Further work will develop the analysis in a number of ways (i) testing a range of flood events with different severity and frequency, (ii) exploration of the influence of climate and socio-economic change (iii) analysis of multiple hazard events and (iv) consideration of cascading disruption across different infrastructure networks.

Flash floods in the Tatra Mountain streams: frequency and triggers.

PubMed

Ballesteros-Cánovas, J A; Czajka, B; Janecka, K; Lempa, M; Kaczka, R J; Stoffel, M

2015-04-01

Flash floods represent a frequently recurring natural phenomenon in the Tatra Mountains. On the northern slopes of the mountain chain, located in Poland, ongoing and expected future changes in climate are thought to further increase the adverse impacts of flash floods. Despite the repeat occurrence of major floods in the densely populated foothills of the Polish Tatras, the headwaters have been characterized by a surprising lack of data, such that any analysis of process variability or hydrometeorological triggers has been largely hampered so far. In this study, dendrogeomorphic techniques have been employed in four poorly-gauged torrential streams of the northern slope of the Tatra Mountains to reconstruct temporal and spatial patterns of past events. Using more than 1100 increment cores of trees injured by past flash floods, we reconstruct 47 events covering the last 148 years and discuss synoptic situations leading to the triggering of flash floods with the existing meteorological and flow gauge data. Tree-ring analyses have allowed highlighting the seasonality of events, providing new insights about potential hydrometeorological triggers as well as a differentiating flash flood activity between catchments. Results of this study could be useful to design future strategies to deal with flash flood risks at the foothills of the Polish Tatras and in the Vistula River catchment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Uncertainty and sensitivity assessment of flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C.

2009-12-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and costly natural disasters. In order to protect human lifes and valuable assets from the effect of floods many defensive structures have been build. Despite these efforts economic losses due to catastrophic flood events have, however, risen substantially during the past couple of decades because of continuing economic developments in flood prone areas. On top of that, climate change is expected to affect the magnitude and frequency of flood events. Because these ongoing trends are expected to continue, a transition can be observed in various countries to move from a protective flood management approach to a more risk based flood management approach. In a risk based approach, flood risk assessments play an important role in supporting decision making. Most flood risk assessments assess flood risks in monetary terms (damage estimated for specific situations or expected annual damage) in order to feed cost-benefit analysis of management measures. Such flood risk assessments contain, however, considerable uncertainties. This is the result from uncertainties in the many different input parameters propagating through the risk assessment and accumulating in the final estimate. Whilst common in some other disciplines, as with integrated assessment models, full uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of flood risk assessments are not so common. Various studies have addressed uncertainties regarding flood risk assessments, but have mainly focussed on the hydrological conditions. However, uncertainties in other components of the risk assessment, like the relation between water depth and monetary damage, can be substantial as well. This research therefore tries to assess the uncertainties of all components of monetary flood risk assessments, using a Monte Carlo based approach. Furthermore, the total uncertainty will also be attributed to the different input parameters using a variance based sensitivity analysis. Assessing and visualizing the uncertainties of the final risk estimate will be helpful to decision makers to make better informed decisions and attributing this uncertainty to the input parameters helps to identify which parameters are most important when it comes to uncertainty in the final estimate and should therefore deserve additional attention in further research.

Effects of Climate Change on Flood Frequency in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Stumbaugh, M. R.; Lee, S. Y.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2014-12-01

A key concern about climate change as related to water resources is the potential for changes in hydrologic extremes, including flooding. We explore changes in flood frequency in the Pacific Northwest using downscaled output from ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) for historical forcings (1950-2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (2006-2100). We use archived output from the Integrated Scenarios Project (ISP) (http://maca.northwestknowledge.net/), which uses the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method for statistical downscaling. The MACA-downscaled GCM output was then used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a 1/16th degree spatial resolution and a daily time step. For each of the 238 HUC-08 areas within the Pacific Northwest (USGS Hydrologic Region 15), we computed, from the ISP archive, the series of maximum daily runoff values (surrogate for the annual maximum flood), and then the mean annual flood. Finally, we computed the ratios of the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 mean annual floods to their corresponding values for the historical period. We evaluate spatial patterns in the results. For snow-dominated watersheds, the changes are dominated by reductions in flood frequency in basins that currently have spring-dominant floods, and increases in snow affected basins with fall-dominant floods. In low elevation basins west of the Cascades, changes in flooding are more directly related to changes in precipitation extremes. We further explore the nature of these effects by evaluating the mean Julian day of the annual maximum flood for each HUC-08 and how this changes between the historical and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

Identification of homogeneous regions for regionalization of watersheds by two-level self-organizing feature maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farsadnia, F.; Rostami Kamrood, M.; Moghaddam Nia, A.; Modarres, R.; Bray, M. T.; Han, D.; Sadatinejad, J.

2014-02-01

One of the several methods in estimating flood quantiles in ungauged or data-scarce watersheds is regional frequency analysis. Amongst the approaches to regional frequency analysis, different clustering techniques have been proposed to determine hydrologically homogeneous regions in the literature. Recently, Self-Organization feature Map (SOM), a modern hydroinformatic tool, has been applied in several studies for clustering watersheds. However, further studies are still needed with SOM on the interpretation of SOM output map for identifying hydrologically homogeneous regions. In this study, two-level SOM and three clustering methods (fuzzy c-mean, K-mean, and Ward's Agglomerative hierarchical clustering) are applied in an effort to identify hydrologically homogeneous regions in Mazandaran province watersheds in the north of Iran, and their results are compared with each other. Firstly the SOM is used to form a two-dimensional feature map. Next, the output nodes of the SOM are clustered by using unified distance matrix algorithm and three clustering methods to form regions for flood frequency analysis. The heterogeneity test indicates the four regions achieved by the two-level SOM and Ward approach after adjustments are sufficiently homogeneous. The results suggest that the combination of SOM and Ward is much better than the combination of either SOM and FCM or SOM and K-mean.

Regional equations for estimation of peak-streamflow frequency for natural basins in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, Raymond M.

1997-01-01

Peak-streamflow frequency for 559 Texas stations with natural (unregulated and rural or nonurbanized) basins was estimated with annual peak-streamflow data through 1993. The peak-streamflow frequency and drainage-basin characteristics for the Texas stations were used to develop 16 sets of equations to estimate peak-streamflow frequency for ungaged natural stream sites in each of 11 regions in Texas. The relation between peak-streamflow frequency and contributing drainage area for 5 of the 11 regions is curvilinear, requiring that one set of equations be developed for drainage areas less than 32 square miles and another set be developed for drainage areas greater than 32 square miles. These equations, developed through multiple-regression analysis using weighted least squares, are based on the relation between peak-streamflow frequency and basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations. The regions represent areas with similar flood characteristics. The use and limitations of the regression equations also are discussed. Additionally, procedures are presented to compute the 50-, 67-, and 90-percent confidence limits for any estimation from the equations. Also, supplemental peak-streamflow frequency and basin characteristics for 105 selected stations bordering Texas are included in the report. This supplemental information will aid in interpretation of flood characteristics for sites near the state borders of Texas.

New river flow maxima in Northern England, December 2015: Implications for flood hazard and risk assessment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, James

2016-04-01

December 2015 was recently confirmed as the UK's wettest month on record by the Met Office. The most extreme precipitation was associated with three extratropical storm systems, named Desmond, Eva and Frank by the pilot Met Éireann/Met Office "Name our storms" project. In response, river levels reached new maxima at many locations across Northern England. Property damage was widespread, with at least 16,000 homes in England flooded. As with recent predecessors, these events reinvigorated public debate about the extent to which natural weather variability, anthropogenic climate change, increased urbanisation and/or other changes in catchment and river management might be responsible for apparent increases in flood frequency and severity. Change detection and attribution science is required to inform the debate, but is complicated by the short (typically ~ 35 years) river flow records available. Running a large number of coupled climate and hydrological model simulations is a powerful way of addressing the 'attribution question' with respect to the hypothesised climate forcing, for example, albeit one that remains largely in the research domain at present. In the meantime, flood-frequency analysis of available records still forms the bedrock of practice in the water industry; the results are used routinely in the design of new defence structures and in the development of flood hazard maps, amongst other things. In such analyses, it is usual for the records to be assumed stationary. In this context, the specific aims of this research are twofold: • To investigate whether, under the assumption of stationarity, the outputs of standard flood-frequency modelling methods (both 'single-site' and 'spatially pooled' methods) differ significantly depending on whether the new peaks are included or excluded, and; • To assess the sustainability of previous conclusions regarding trends in English river flows by reapplying simple statistical tests, such as the Mann-Kendal test, to data series with the new peaks included. Overall, the research seeks to explore the robustness of commonly-employed statistical flood estimation methods to instrumentally unprecedented extremes. Should it be found that the new records do indeed represent paradigm-shifting 'leverage points', then the suggestion of the Deputy Chief Executive of the Environment Agency, David Rooke - that a "complete rethink" of flood mitigation matters is required in our world of "unknown extremes" - must be given sufficient attention.

Evaluation of design flood frequency methods for Iowa streams : final report, June 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

The objective of this project was to assess the predictive accuracy of flood frequency estimation for small Iowa streams based : on the Rational Method, the NRCS curve number approach, and the Iowa Runoff Chart. The evaluation was based on : comparis...

Historical palaeohydrology and landscape resilience of a Mediterranean rambla (Castellón, NE Spain): Floods and people

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, M. J.; Medialdea, A.; Calle, M.; Rico, M. T.; Sánchez-Moya, Y.; Sopeña, A.; Benito, G.

2017-09-01

This paper provides a new methodological approach to analyse secular patterns of flooding (magnitude and frequency) from sedimentary evidence (palaeofloods), taking into account changes in channel geometry, and their links to historical environmental changes and the inherent social and demographic evolution within the catchment. A case study analysis was focused in Rambla de la Viuda (drainage area of 1500 km2) whose stream flow is related to extreme rainfalls. A 500 years sedimentary archive was reconstructed from eight stratigraphic profiles comprising continuous sequences of slackwater flood deposits interbedded with episodic colluvial and edaphic horizons. Discharge estimates associated to sedimentary flood evidences were obtained from one-dimensional hydraulic modelling. The stratigraphic units were sampled to characterise their geochemical and paleobotanical (phytoliths) contents. Palaeoflood chronology was obtained from radiocarbon and luminescence (OSL) dating, supported by documentary data (written historical documents). A high frequency and high magnitude palaeoflood period took place during the 15th-middle 16th century, which seem to correlate in time with general wetter conditions. Three short-term environment stability conditions (land use and climatic) also made possible the development of three paleosols. The lowest flood magnitude and discharges in the sedimentary record was found between the mid-17th to mid-18th centuries, under prevailing drier environmental conditions. Episodic high magnitude flooding took place at late 18th century, correlating in time with palaeovegetation and geochemical evidences of important changes on land use (deforestation and grazing). Poorer developed soils were found at upper stratigraphic sequences (19th century) characterised by thick units of colluvium deposits, usually culminating sequences of short-lived continuous slackwater flood units. Despite of the potential human influence (land-use) on soil hydrology, the long-term behaviour of high magnitude floods (>1000 m3 s-1) has been stationary over the last 500 years.

Floods in a changing climate

Treesearch

Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

2013-01-01

Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

Uncertainties in the palaeoflood record - interpreting geomorphology since 12 500 BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moloney, Jessica; Coulthard, Tom; Freer, Jim; Rogerson, Mike

2017-04-01

Recent floods in the UK have reinvigorated the national debate within academic and non-academic organisations of how we quantify risk and improve the resilience of communities to flooding. One critical aspect of that debate is to better understand and quantify the frequency of extreme floods occurring. The research presented in this study explores the challenges and uncertainties of using longer term palaeoflood data records to improve the quantification of flood risk. The frequency of floods has been studied on short (under 100 years) and long-time (over 200 years) scales. Long term flood frequency records rely on the radiocarbon dating and interpretation of geomorphological evidence within fluvial depositional environments. However, there are limitations with the methods used to do this. Notably, the use of probability distribution functions of fluvial deposits dates does not consider any other information, such as the geomorphological context of material and/ or the type of depositional environment. This study re-analyses 776 radiocarbon dated fluvial deposits from the UK, which have been compiled into a database, to interpret the geomorphological flood record. Initial findings indicate that even this large number of samples may be unsuitable for probabilistic methods and shows an unusual sensitivity to the number of records present in the database.

Climatic effects on ice-jam flooding of the Peace-Athabasca Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltaos, S.; Prowse, T.; Bonsal, B.; Mackay, R.; Romolo, L.; Pietroniro, A.; Toth, B.

2006-12-01

The Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD) in northern Alberta is one of the world's largest inland freshwater deltas, home to large populations of waterfowl, muskrat, beaver, and free-ranging wood bison. In recent decades, a paucity of ice-jam flooding in the lower Peace River has resulted in prolonged dry periods and considerable reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life in the PAD region. Building on previous work that has identified the salient hydro-climatic factors, the frequency of ice-jam floods is considered under present (1961-1990) and future (2070-2099) climatic conditions. The latter are determined using temperature and precipitation output from the Canadian Climate Centre's second-generation Global Climate Model (CGCM2) for two different greenhouse-gas/sulphate emission scenarios. The analysis indicates that the ice season is likely to be reduced by 2-4 weeks, while future ice covers would be slightly thinner than they are at present. More importantly, a large part of the Peace River basin is expected to experience frequent and sustained mid-winter thaws, leading to significant melt and depleted snowpacks in the spring. Using an empirical relationship between ice-jam flood occurrence and size of the spring snowpack, a severe reduction in the frequency of ice-jam flooding is predicted under both future-climate scenarios that were considered. In turn, this trend is likely to accelerate the loss of aquatic habitat in the PAD region. Implications for potential mitigation and adaptation strategies are discussed. Copyright

Estimation of Flood Discharges at Selected Recurrence Intervals for Streams in New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.

2009-01-01

This report provides estimates of flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for streamgages in and adjacent to New Hampshire and equations for estimating flood discharges at recurrence intervals of 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-years for ungaged, unregulated, rural streams in New Hampshire. The equations were developed using generalized least-squares regression. Flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics from 117 streamgages were used in developing the equations. The drainage-basin characteristics used as explanatory variables in the regression equations include drainage area, mean April precipitation, percentage of wetland area, and main channel slope. The average standard error of prediction for estimating the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence interval flood discharges with these equations are 30.0, 30.8, 32.0, 34.2, 36.0, 38.1, and 43.4 percent, respectively. Flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for selected streamgages were computed following the guidelines in Bulletin 17B of the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. To determine the flood-discharge exceedence probabilities at streamgages in New Hampshire, a new generalized skew coefficient map covering the State was developed. The standard error of the data on new map is 0.298. To improve estimates of flood discharges at selected recurrence intervals for 20 streamgages with short-term records (10 to 15 years), record extension using the two-station comparison technique was applied. The two-station comparison method uses data from a streamgage with long-term record to adjust the frequency characteristics at a streamgage with a short-term record. A technique for adjusting a flood-discharge frequency curve computed from a streamgage record with results from the regression equations is described in this report. Also, a technique is described for estimating flood discharge at a selected recurrence interval for an ungaged site upstream or downstream from a streamgage using a drainage-area adjustment. The final regression equations and the flood-discharge frequency data used in this study will be available in StreamStats. StreamStats is a World Wide Web application providing automated regression-equation solutions for user-selected sites on streams.

Human-flood interactions in Rome over the past 150 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Saccà, Smeralda; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Grimaldi, Salvatore; Ciullo, Alessio; Crisci, Massimiliano

2017-02-01

Throughout history, the socio-economic development of the city of Rome has been intertwined with the magnitude and frequency of flooding events from the Tiber, one of Italy's largest rivers. Ancient Rome mostly developed on the hills, while the Tiber's floodplain was mainly exploited for agricultural purposes. A few small communities did settle in the riparian areas of the Tiber, but they had a relatively peaceful relationship with the frequent occurrence of flooding events. Instead, numerous people live nowadays in modern districts in the Tiber's floodplain, unaware of their exposure to potentially catastrophic flooding. This research work aims to explore the dynamics of changing flood risk between these two opposite pictures of ancient and contemporary Rome. To this end, we carried out a socio-hydrological study by using long time series of hydrological (extreme flood events) and social (human population dynamics) processes, along with information about human interactions with the environment (flood defence structures). The historical analysis showed how human and water systems have been co-evolving over time, while being abruptly altered by the occurrence of an extreme flood event in 1870, just before Rome became the capital of a recently unified Italy. The outcomes of this study were then compared to the results of a socio-hydrological model simulating the dynamics emerging from the mutual shaping of floods and societies.

Estimation of Magnitude and Frequency of Floods for Streams on the Island of Oahu, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Michael F.

1994-01-01

This report describes techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for the island of Oahu. The log-Pearson Type III distribution and methodology recommended by the Interagency Committee on Water Data was used to determine the magnitude and frequency of floods at 79 gaging stations that had 11 to 72 years of record. Multiple regression analysis was used to construct regression equations to transfer the magnitude and frequency information from gaged sites to ungaged sites. Oahu was divided into three hydrologic regions to define relations between peak discharge and drainage-basin and climatic characteristics. Regression equations are provided to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year peak discharges at ungaged sites. Significant basin and climatic characteristics included in the regression equations are drainage area, median annual rainfall, and the 2-year, 24-hour rainfall intensity. Drainage areas for sites used in this study ranged from 0.03 to 45.7 square miles. Standard error of prediction for the regression equations ranged from 34 to 62 percent. Peak-discharge data collected through water year 1988, geographic information system (GIS) technology, and generalized least-squares regression were used in the analyses. The use of GIS seems to be a more flexible and consistent means of defining and calculating basin and climatic characteristics than using manual methods. Standard errors of estimate for the regression equations in this report are an average of 8 percent less than those published in previous studies.

The 1965 Mississippi River flood in Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwob, Harlan H.; Myers, Richard E.

1965-01-01

Flood data compiled for the part of the River along the eastern border include flood discharges, flood elevations, and the frequency of floods of varying magnitudes. They also include the daily or more frequent stage and discharge data for both the Mississippi River and the downstream gaging stations on Iowa tributaries for the period March-May 1965. Sufficient data are presented to permit studied for preparation of plans for protective works and plans for zoning or for flood plain regulation.

Element geochemical analysis of the contribution of aeolian sand to suspended sediment in desert stream flash floods.

PubMed

Jia, Xiaopeng; Wang, Haibing

2014-01-01

The interaction of wind and water in semiarid and arid areas usually leads to low-frequency flash flood events in desert rivers, which have adverse effects on river systems and ecology. In arid zones, many aeolian dune-fields terminate in stream channels and deliver aeolian sand to the channels. Although aeolian processes are common to many desert rivers, whether the aeolian processes contribute to fluvial sediment loss is still unknown. Here, we identified the aeolian-fluvial cycling process responsible for the high rate of suspended sediment transport in the Sudalaer desert stream in the Ordos plateau of China. On the basis of element geochemistry data analysis, we found that aeolian sand was similar to suspended sediment in element composition, which suggests that aeolian sand contributes to suspended sediment in flash floods. Scatter plots of some elements further confirm that aeolian sand is the major source of the suspended sediment. Factor analysis and the relation between some elements and suspended sediment concentration prove that the greater the aeolian process, the higher the suspended sediment concentration and the greater the contribution of aeolian sand to suspended sediment yield. We conclude that aeolian sand is the greatest contributor to flash floods in the Sudalaer desert stream.

Element Geochemical Analysis of the Contribution of Aeolian Sand to Suspended Sediment in Desert Stream Flash Floods

PubMed Central

Wang, Haibing

2014-01-01

The interaction of wind and water in semiarid and arid areas usually leads to low-frequency flash flood events in desert rivers, which have adverse effects on river systems and ecology. In arid zones, many aeolian dune-fields terminate in stream channels and deliver aeolian sand to the channels. Although aeolian processes are common to many desert rivers, whether the aeolian processes contribute to fluvial sediment loss is still unknown. Here, we identified the aeolian-fluvial cycling process responsible for the high rate of suspended sediment transport in the Sudalaer desert stream in the Ordos plateau of China. On the basis of element geochemistry data analysis, we found that aeolian sand was similar to suspended sediment in element composition, which suggests that aeolian sand contributes to suspended sediment in flash floods. Scatter plots of some elements further confirm that aeolian sand is the major source of the suspended sediment. Factor analysis and the relation between some elements and suspended sediment concentration prove that the greater the aeolian process, the higher the suspended sediment concentration and the greater the contribution of aeolian sand to suspended sediment yield. We conclude that aeolian sand is the greatest contributor to flash floods in the Sudalaer desert stream. PMID:25089295

Enhancing Flood Prediction Reliability Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Merwade, V.

2017-12-01

Uncertainty analysis is an indispensable part of modeling the hydrology and hydrodynamics of non-idealized environmental systems. Compared to reliance on prediction from one model simulation, using on ensemble of predictions that consider uncertainty from different sources is more reliable. In this study, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is applied to Black River watershed in Arkansas and Missouri by combining multi-model simulations to get reliable deterministic water stage and probabilistic inundation extent predictions. The simulation ensemble is generated from 81 LISFLOOD-FP subgrid model configurations that include uncertainty from channel shape, channel width, channel roughness and discharge. Model simulation outputs are trained with observed water stage data during one flood event, and BMA prediction ability is validated for another flood event. Results from this study indicate that BMA does not always outperform all members in the ensemble, but it provides relatively robust deterministic flood stage predictions across the basin. Station based BMA (BMA_S) water stage prediction has better performance than global based BMA (BMA_G) prediction which is superior to the ensemble mean prediction. Additionally, high-frequency flood inundation extent (probability greater than 60%) in BMA_G probabilistic map is more accurate than the probabilistic flood inundation extent based on equal weights.

A new approach to flood loss estimation and vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.

2013-10-01

The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is proposed that studies the nature of vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide key findings and guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of key vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. This in turn facilitates the production of strategies for mitigating and managing the losses threatened by such extreme climate events.

A comparison of large 18th-century floods on Danube: Vienna - Bratislava - Budapest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj

2013-04-01

The documentation of historic floods can help in better understanding of factors that might cause and contribute to large and extreme flood events. In particular, the analysis of historic floods provides information about flood seasonality, its changes and anthropogenic impacts on river flood regime which in some cases strongly influenced flood behaviour. The main objective of the present contribution is to document large and medium size flood events on Danube in Vienna, Bratislava and Budapest in the 18th century. In the present study, based on contemporary documentary evidence, for each of the three towns a five-scaled flood index series is developed to describe the magnitude and intensity of flood events. According to this classification, the 100-year flood event was characterised by the index value 5, while great destructive floods - depending on their extension, destructivity and further impacts - received the values 4 and 3, respectively. Less significant but still harmful flood events were classified as No. 2, and floods without further specification remained in the lowest category (No. 1). Beside classification issues, seasonality and flood frequency differences between the three towns are as well discussed. The results indicate that a greater number of flood events took place in the last decades of the century, but only a few flood events of the same magnitude are documented simultaneously in all three towns. And whereas in 1775 no winter flood event was reported in Vienna, an important ice jam flood was documented in Bratislava, and a catastrophic ice jam flood event, greatest of the century, occurred in Budapest. In 1787 autumn the greatest flood event of the century occurred in Vienna, while hardly any flood waves were observed at Budapest. While in Vienna, summer (and partly autumn) floods had great importance, in Budapest a large number of ice jam floods were documented. In some cases the differences are likely caused by different hydrometeorological and morphological conditions, but the importance of human impact (e.g. different types and levels of flood protection in the towns, large-scale changes of land use in the catchment area) have to be as well emphasised.

Regional Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Streamflow in Gipuzkoa (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erro, J.; López, J. J.

2012-04-01

Extreme streamflow events have been an important cause of recent flooding in Gipuzkoa, and any change in the magnitude of such events may have severe impacts upon urban structures such as dams, urban drainage systems and flood defences, and cause failures to occur. So a regional frequency analysis of annual maximum streamflow was developed for Gipuzkoa, using the well known L-moments approach together with the index-flood procedure, and following the four steps that characterize it: initial screening of the data, identification of homogeneous regions, choice of the appropriate frequency distribution and estimation of quantiles for different return periods. The preliminary study, completed in 2009, was based on the observations recorded at 22 stations distributed throughout the area. A primary filtering of the data revealed the absence of jumps, inconsistencies and changes in trends within the series, and the discordancy measures showed that none of the sites used in the analysis had to be considered discordant with the others. Regionalization was performed by cluster analysis, grouping the stations according to eight physical site characteristics: latitude, longitude, drainage basin area, elevation, main channel length of the basin, slope, annual mean rainfall and annual maximum rainfall. It resulted in two groups - one cluster with the 18 sites of small-medium basin area, and a second cluster with the 4 remaining sites of major basin area - in which the homogeneity criteria were tested and satisfied. However, the short lenght of the series together with the introduction of the observations of 2010 and the inclusion of a historic extreme streamflow event occurred in northern Spain in November 2011, completely changed the results. With this consideration and adjustment, all Gipuzkoa could be treated as a homogeneus region. The goodness-of-fit measures indicated that Generalized Logistic (GLO) is the only suitable distribution to characterize Gipuzkoa. Using the regional L-moment algorithm, quantiles associated with return periods of interest were estimated, and Monte Carlo simulation was used to compute RMSE, bias and error bounds for the estimates.

Seismic Analysis of the 2017 Oroville Dam Spillway Erosion Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodling, P.; Lekic, V.; Prestegaard, K. L.

2017-12-01

The outflow channel of the northern California (USA) Oroville Dam suffered catastrophic erosion damage in February and March, 2017. High discharges released through the spillway (up to 3,000 m3/s) caused rapid spillway erosion, forming a deep chasm. A repeat LiDAR survey obtained from the California Department of Water Resources indicates that the chasm eroded to a depth of 48 meters. A three-component broadband seismometer (STS-1) operated by the Berkeley Digital Seismological Network recorded microseismic energy produced by the flowing water, providing a natural laboratory to test methods for seismically monitoring sudden catastrophic floods and erosion. In this study, we evaluate the three-component waveforms recorded during five constant-discharge periods - before, during, and after the spillway crisis - each of which had a different channel geometry. We apply frequency-dependent polarization analysis (FDPA; following Park, 1987), which characterizes particle motion at each frequency. The method is based on principal component analysis on a spectral covariance matrix in one-hour windows and it produces the horizontal azimuth, vertical tilt, horizontal phase, and vertical phase of the dominant particle motion. The results indicate a greater vertical component (perhaps roughness-induced) of power at a broad range of frequencies at a given discharge after the formation of the chasm. As the outflow crater developed, the back-azimuth of the primary source of seismic energy changed from the nearby Thermalito Diversion Pool (188 degrees) to the center of the outflow channel (170 degrees). To further analyze FDPA results, we apply the 2D spectral-element solver package SPECFEM2D (Tromp et al. 2008), and find that local topography should be considered when interpreting the surface waveforms predicted by FDPA results. This research suggests that monitoring changing channel geometry and erosion in large-scale flood events may be enhanced by seismic FDPA analysis. The results of this work are compared and contrasted with 3-component seismic observations of cobble-bed stream floods in Maryland.

A new approach for the description of discharge extremes in small catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavia Santolamazza, Daniela; Lebrenz, Henning; Bárdossy, András

2017-04-01

Small catchment basins in Northwestern Switzerland, characterized by small concentration times, are frequently targeted by floods. The peak and the volume of these floods are commonly estimated by a frequency analysis of occurrence and described by a random variable, assuming a uniform distributed probability and stationary input drivers (e.g. precipitation, temperature). For these small catchments, we attempt to describe and identify the underlying mechanisms and dynamics at the occurrence of extremes by means of available high temporal resolution (10 min) observations and to explore the possibilities to regionalize hydrological parameters for short intervals. Therefore, we investigate new concepts for the flood description such as entropy as a measure of disorder and dispersion of precipitation. First findings and conclusions of this ongoing research are presented.

Flood of October 1986 at Seward, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, S.H.; Zenone, Chester

1988-01-01

Broad areas along the lower Resurrection River and Salmon Creek as well as the surfaces of several adjacent alluvial fans in the Seward area were flooded as a result of the intensive rainstorm of October 9-11, 1986. Severe erosion took place through the steep gradient, mountain canyons and near the apex of the fans, while rock and debris were deposited on the distal parts of the fans. In Godwin, Lost, Box Canyon, Japanese, and Spruce Creek basins, and perhaps others, landslides or debris avalanches dammed the streams temporarily. Subsequent failure or overtopping of these dams led to ' surge-release ' flooding; peak discharge of such a flood at Spruce Creek was 13,600 cu ft/sec, four times as great as any previously known maximum discharge from the basin and 2.5 times as great as the runoff rate from the debris dam. Flood discharges were determined indirectly--using the slope-area method--at ten high-gradient reaches on nine streams. Computed peak discharges for several small basins were the largest since records began in 1963. The largest rainfall-runoff rate unaffected by surge-release was 1 ,020 cu ft per sec per sq mi at Rudolph Creek, which has a drainage area of 1.00 sq mi. The 15.05 inches of rain that fell in one 24-hour period during the storm was assigned a recurrence interval of 100 years or greater. The length of the streamflow record available for most Seward area streams-25 years or less-is inadequate to reliably define flood frequency relations for recurrence intervals as great as 100 years. However, the slope-area determined discharge of Spruce Creek above the debris avalanche indicates a recurrence interval of a 100 years or greater. In addition, conventional flood-frequency analysis techniques are not applicable to peak discharges that are affected by surge-release phenomena. Large, damaging floods have repeatedly caused major damage in the Seward area, and the potential for catastrophic, debris-laden floods is an ever-present threat to areas bordering the many steep mountain streams. (Author 's abstract)

Flood of September 22, 1998, in Arecibo and Utuado, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torres-Sierra, Heriberto

2002-01-01

Hurricane Georges made landfall on the southeastern part of Puerto Rico during September 21, 1998. Georges, with maximum sustained winds of 185 kilometers per hour and gusts to 240 kilometers per hour, produced 24-hour total rainfall amounts of 770 millimeters on the island's mountainous interior. Severe flooding affected almost half of the island's 78 municipios during September 21-22, 1998. The most affected municipios were Adjuntas, Aguada, Aguadilla, A?asco, Arecibo, Cayey, Ciales, Comerio, Barceloneta, Dorado, Jayuya, Manati, Mayaguez, Morovis, Orocovis, Patillas, Toa Alta, Toa Baja, and Utuado. The combination of strong winds, intense rainfall and severe flooding caused widespread property damages. More than 20,000 houses were destroyed and more than 100,000 houses sustained damage. Floodwaters and landslides destroyed or damaged many bridges and roads throughout the island. Records indicate that Hurricane Georges induced flood discharges in the Rio Grande de Arecibo Basin that were the largest on record. Floodwaters inundated urban and rural areas, affecting urban subdivisions, businesses, vehicles, bridges, roads, and high-tension electric power lines. To define the extent and depth of inundation, more than 280 high-water marks were identified and surveyed in Arecibo and Utuado. In addition estimates of flood magnitude and frequency were made at selected gaging stations, and flood profiles were developed for certain stream reaches. Flooding was most severe in the towns of Arecibo and Utuado. In Arecibo, the most affected communities were the rural area of San Francisco, the urban subdivisions of Martell, Nolla, and Arecibo Gardens, and the low-lying areas of downtown Arecibo. In these areas, the water depths ranged from 0.6 to 1.8 meters. In Utuado, floodwaters from the Rio Vivi and the Rio Grande de Arecibo inundated the downtown area affecting homes, public facilities, and businesses. In the urban subdivision of Jesus Maria Lago, the depth of flooding exceeded 2.5 meters. Frequency analysis indicates that flood-peak discharges equaled or exceeded the 100-year recurrence interval at five streamflow-gaging stations in the Rio Grande de Arecibo Basin.

A metric-based assessment of flood risk and vulnerability of rural communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, A. J.; Mwale, F. D.; Dulanya, Z.

2015-06-01

In response to the increasing frequency and economic damages of natural disasters globally, disaster risk management has evolved to incorporate risk assessments that are multi-dimensional, integrated and metric-based. This is to support knowledge-based decision making and hence sustainable risk reduction. In Malawi and most of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), however, flood risk studies remain focussed on understanding causation, impacts, perceptions and coping and adaptation measures. Using the IPCC Framework, this study has quantified and profiled risk to flooding of rural, subsistent communities in the Lower Shire Valley, Malawi. Flood risk was obtained by integrating hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard was characterised in terms of flood depth and inundation area obtained through hydraulic modelling in the valley with Lisflood-FP, while the vulnerability was indexed through analysis of exposure, susceptibility and capacity that were linked to social, economic, environmental and physical perspectives. Data on these were collected through structured interviews of the communities. The implementation of the entire analysis within GIS enabled the visualisation of spatial variability in flood risk in the valley. The results show predominantly medium levels in hazardousness, vulnerability and risk. The vulnerability is dominated by a high to very high susceptibility. Economic and physical capacities tend to be predominantly low but social capacity is significantly high, resulting in overall medium levels of capacity-induced vulnerability. Exposure manifests as medium. The vulnerability and risk showed marginal spatial variability. The paper concludes with recommendations on how these outcomes could inform policy interventions in the Valley.

Bivariate analysis of floods in climate impact assessments.

PubMed

Brunner, Manuela Irene; Sikorska, Anna E; Seibert, Jan

2018-03-01

Climate impact studies regarding floods usually focus on peak discharges and a bivariate assessment of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes is not commonly included. A joint consideration of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, however, is crucial when assessing flood risks for current and future climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology to develop synthetic design hydrographs for future climate conditions that jointly consider peak discharges and hydrograph volumes. First, change factors are derived based on a regional climate model and are applied to observed precipitation and temperature time series. Second, the modified time series are fed into a calibrated hydrological model to simulate runoff time series for future conditions. Third, these time series are used to construct synthetic design hydrographs. The bivariate flood frequency analysis used in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs takes into account the dependence between peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, and represents the shape of the hydrograph. The latter is modeled using a probability density function while the dependence between the design variables peak discharge and hydrograph volume is modeled using a copula. We applied this approach to a set of eight mountainous catchments in Switzerland to construct catchment-specific and season-specific design hydrographs for a control and three scenario climates. Our work demonstrates that projected climate changes have an impact not only on peak discharges but also on hydrograph volumes and on hydrograph shapes both at an annual and at a seasonal scale. These changes are not necessarily proportional which implies that climate impact assessments on future floods should consider more flood characteristics than just flood peaks. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Linking events, science and media for flood and drought management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, M.; Wei, Y.; Zheng, H.; Zhao, Y.

2017-12-01

Throughout history, floods and droughts have been closely related to the development of human riparian civilization. The socio-economic damage caused by floods/droughts appears to be on the rise and the frequency of floods/droughts increases due to global climate change. In this paper, we take a fresh perspective to examine the (dis)connection between events (floods and droughts), research papers and media reports in globally 42 river basins between 1990 and 2012 for better solutions in floods and droughts management. We collected hydrological data from NOAA/ESPL Physical Sciences Division (PSD) and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), all relevant scientific papers from Web of Science (WOS) and media records from Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) during the study period, presented the temporal variability at annual level of these three groups of data, and analysed the (connection) among these three groups of data in typical river basins. We found that 1) the number of flood related reports on both media and research is much more than those on droughts; 2) the concerns of media reports just focused on partial topics (death, severity and damage) and partial catchments (Mediterranean Sea and Nile River); 3) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within some river basins such as Nile River Basin, Parana River Basin, Savannah River Basin and Murray-Darling River Basin; 4) the scientific contribution on floods and droughts were limited within only a few of disciplines such as Geology, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, Agriculture, Engineering and Forestry. It is recommended that multiple disciplinary contribution and collaboration should be promoted to achieve comprehensive flood/drought management, and science and media should interactively play their valuable roles and in flood/drought issues. Keywords: Floods, droughts, events, science, media, flood and drought management

Floods of the Maros river in the early modern and modern period (16th-20th centuries)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea

2016-04-01

In the poster presentation a series of historical and recent floods of the Maros river, with special emphasis on the flood events occurred on the lower sections, are presented. Similar to the Hungarian flood databases of the Middle-Danube and Lower-Tisza, the main sources of investigations are the institutional (legal-administrative) documentary evidence (e.g. Szeged and Makó town council protocols and related administrative documentation, Csanád County meeting protocols) mainly from the late 17th-early 18th century onwards. However, in case of the Maros river there is an increased importance of narrative sources, with special emphasis on the early modern period (16th-17th century): in this case the (mainly Transylvanian) narratives (chronicles, diaries, memoires etc.) written by aristocrats, other noblemen and town citizens have particular importance. In the presentation the frequency of detected flood events, from the mid-16th century onwards (with an outlook on sporadic medieval evidence), is provided; moreover, a 3-scaled magnitude classification and a seasonality analysis are also presented. Floods of the Maros river, especially those of the lower river sections, often cannot be understood and discussed without the floods of the (Lower-)Tisza; thus, a comparison of the two flood series are also a subject of discussion. Unlike the Lower-Tisza, the Maros is prone to winter and early spring ice jam floods: since the floods that belonged to this type (similar to those of the Middle-Danube at Budapest) were the most destructive among the flood events of the river, this flood type, and the greatest flood events (e.g. 1751-1752, 1784) are also presented in more detail.

Sediment transport and deposition in the lower Missouri River during the 2011 flood

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Jason S.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Rus, David L.

2013-01-01

Floodwater in the Missouri River in 2011 originated in upper-basin regions and tributaries, and then travelled through a series of large flood-control reservoirs, setting records for total runoff volume entering all six Missouri River main-stem reservoirs. The flooding lasted as long as 3 months. The U.S Geological Survey (USGS) examined sediment transport and deposition in the lower Missouri River in 2011 to investigate how the geography of floodwater sources, in particular the decanting effects of the Missouri River main-stem reservoir system, coupled with the longitudinal characteristics of civil infrastructure and valley-bottom topography, affected sediment transport and deposition in this large, regulated river system. During the flood conditions in 2011, the USGS, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, monitored suspended-sediment transport at six primary streamgages along the length of the lower Missouri River. Measured suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) in the lower Missouri River varied from approximately 150 milligrams per liter (mg/L) to 2,000 mg/L from January 1 to September 30, 2011. Median SSC increased in the downstream direction from 355 mg/L at Sioux City, Iowa, to 490 mg/L at Hermann, Missouri. The highest SSCs were measured downstream from Omaha, Nebraska, in late February when snowmelt runoff from tributaries, which were draining zones of high-sediment production, was entering the lower Missouri River, and releases of water at Gavins Point Dam were small. The combination of dilute releases of water at Gavins Point Dam and low streamflows in lower Missouri River tributaries caused sustained lowering of SSC at all streamgages from early July through late August. Suspended-sediment ranged from 5 percent washload (PW; percent silt and clay) to as much as 98 percent in the lower Missouri River from January 1 to September 30, 2011. Median PW increased in the downstream direction from 24 percent at Sioux City, Iowa, to 78 percent at Hermann, Missouri. Measurements made in early January, when SSC was low, indicate that suspended sediment mostly was composed of bed material, but by mid-February, runoff from the plains caused PW to increase at most streamgages. Total suspended-sediment discharge (SSD) during water year 2011 at the selected streamgages in the lower Missouri River ranged from approximately 29 to 64 million tons. Total estimated SSD had the lowest exceedance frequencies in the reaches between Gavins Point Dam and Nebraska City, Nebraska, but exceedance frequencies increased substantially downstream. In 2011, total SSD with low exceedance frequencies were reported at Sioux City, Iowa, Omaha, Nebraska, and Nebraska City, Nebraska, despite moderate-to-high exceedance frequencies for annual average SSC, indicating that the duration of high-magnitude flooding was the primary driver of total SSD. Comparison of median SSC for samples from water year 2011 with samples in the 20 years prior indicated that median SSC for high-action streamflows (streamflows likely to produce a stage exceeding the National Weather Service’s “action stage”) in 2011 were lower than those typical for high-action streamflows. Multiple-comparison analysis indicated that median SSC values for low-action streamflows (streamflows likely to produce stages lower than the National Weather Service’s “action stage”) and high-action streamflows sampled in 2011 at 4 of 6 streamgages were not significantly distinguishable from median SSC values for low-action streamflows in the previous 20 years. Longitudinal comparison of streamflow and SSD exceedance frequencies for 2011 with corresponding frequencies for 2008 and 1993 indicated the important role of tributary contributions to total SSD in the lower Missouri River. In 1993 and 2008, tributaries were the primary source of floodwater in the lower Missouri River, which resulted in a 20-fold increase in total SSD from Sioux City, Iowa, to Hermann, Missouri. In 2011, releases at Gavins Point Dam were the primary source of floodwater in the lower Missouri River, and total SSD at Hermann, Missouri, was only twice that estimated for Sioux City, Iowa. Sand deposition was estimated using analysis of multispectral satellite imagery collected in October and November 2011. Distributions of sand in the flood plain of the lower Missouri River also were quantified in relation to distance from the banks of the main channel for seven discrete river segments bounded by Gavins Point Dam and selected downstream tributaries. The areal extent of overbank flooding and flood-plain sand deposits increased downstream from Sioux City, Iowa to a broad peak near Rulo, Nebraska, and then decreased to levels near the lower limit of quantification downstream from Kansas City, Missouri. Most of the flood plain inundation and sediment-deposition damage to agricultural fields was observed between river miles 480 and 700, where 2011 peak streamflows had low exceedance frequencies, and the lower Missouri River channel was less incised or had aggraded recently. As channel capacity increased in the downstream direction, the relative magnitude of the flood decreased downstream, and overbank flooding was less extensive. In the constricted reaches, flood-plain sand deposits mainly were observed in association with levee breaks.

Flood-frequency analyses from paleoflood investigations for Spring, Rapid, Boxelder, and Elk Creeks, Black Hills, western South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Tessa M.; O'Connor, Jim E.; Driscoll, Daniel G.; Stamm, John F.

2011-01-01

Flood-frequency analyses for the Black Hills area are important because of severe flooding of June 9-10, 1972, that was caused by a large mesoscale convective system and caused at least 238 deaths. Many 1972 peak flows are high outliers (by factors of 10 or more) in observed records that date to the early 1900s. An efficient means of reducing uncertainties for flood recurrence is to augment gaged records by using paleohydrologic techniques to determine ages and magnitudes of prior large floods (paleofloods). This report summarizes results of paleoflood investigations for Spring Creek, Rapid Creek (two reaches), Boxelder Creek (two subreaches), and Elk Creek. Stratigraphic records and resulting long-term flood chronologies, locally extending more than 2,000 years, were combined with observed and adjusted peak-flow values (gaged records) and historical flood information to derive flood-frequency estimates for the six study reaches. Results indicate that (1) floods as large as and even substantially larger than 1972 have affected most of the study reaches, and (2) incorporation of the paleohydrologic information substantially reduced uncertainties in estimating flood recurrence. Canyons within outcrops of Paleozoic rocks along the eastern flanks of the Black Hills provided excellent environments for (1) deposition and preservation of stratigraphic sequences of late-Holocene flood deposits, primarily in protected slack-water settings flanking the streams; and (2) hydraulic analyses for determination of associated flow magnitudes. The bedrock canyons ensure long-term stability of channel and valley geometry, thereby increasing confidence in hydraulic computations of ancient floods from modern channel geometry. Stratigraphic records of flood sequences, in combination with deposit dating by radiocarbon, optically stimulated luminescence, and cesium-137, provided paleoflood chronologies for 29 individual study sites. Flow magnitudes were estimated from elevations of flood deposits in conjunction with hydraulic calculations based on modern channel and valley geometry. Reach-scale paleoflood chronologies were interpreted for each study reach, which generally entailed correlation of flood evidence among multiple sites, chiefly based on relative position within stratigraphic sequences, unique textural characteristics, or results of age dating and flow estimation. The FLDFRQ3 and PeakfqSA analytical models (assuming log-Pearson Type III frequency distributions) were used for flood-frequency analyses for as many as four scenarios: (1) analysis of gaged records only; (2) gaged records with historical information; (3) all available data including gaged records, historical flows, paleofloods, and perception thresholds; and (4) the same as the third scenario, but ?top fitting? the distribution using only the largest 50 percent of gaged peak flows. The PeakfqSA model is most consistent with procedures adopted by most Federal agencies for flood-frequency analysis and thus was (1) used for comparisons among results for study reaches, and (2) considered by the authors as most appropriate for general applications of estimating low-probability flood recurrence. The detailed paleoflood investigations indicated that in the last 2,000 years all study reaches have had multiple large floods substantially larger than in gaged records. For Spring Creek, stratigraphic records preserved a chronology of at least five paleofloods in approximately (~) 1,000 years approaching or exceeding the 1972 flow of 21,800 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). The largest was ~700 years ago with a flow range of 29,300-58,600 ft3/s, which reflects the uncertainty regarding flood-magnitude estimates that was incorporated in the flood-frequency analyses. In the lower reach of Rapid Creek (downstream from Pactola Dam), two paleofloods in ~1,000 years exceeded the 1972 flow of 31,200 ft3/s. Those occurred ~440 and 1,000 years ago, with flows of 128,000-256,000 and 64,000-128,000 ft3/s, respectively. Five smaller paleofloods of 9,500-19,000 ft3/s occurred between ~200 and 400 years ago. In the upper reach of Rapid Creek (above Pactola Reservoir), the largest recorded floods are substantially smaller than for lower Rapid Creek and all other study reaches. Paleofloods of ~12,900 and 12,000 ft3/s occurred ~1,000 and 1,500 years ago. One additional paleoflood (~800 years ago) was similar in magnitude to the largest gaged flow of 2,460 ft3/s Boxelder Creek was treated as having two subreaches because of two tributaries that affect peak flows. During the last ~1,000 years, paleofloods of ~39,000-78,000 ft3/s and 40,000-80,000 ft3/s in the upstream subreach have exceeded the 1972 peak flow of 30,800 ft3/s. One other paleoflood was similar to the second largest gaged flow (16,400 ft3/s in 1907). For the downstream subreach, paleofloods of 61,300-123,000 ft3/s and 52,500-105,000 ft3/s in the last ~1,000 years have substantially exceeded the 1972 flood (50,500 ft3/s). Four additional paleofloods had flows between 14,200 and 33,800 ft3/s. The 1972 flow on Elk Creek (10,400 ft3/s) has been substantially exceeded at least five times in the last 1,900 years. The largest paleoflood (41,500-124,000 ft3/s) was ~900 years ago. Three other paleofloods between 37,500 and 120,000 ft3/s occurred between 1,100 and 1,800 years ago. A fifth paleoflood of 25,500-76,500 ft3/s was ~750 years ago. Considering analyses for all available data (PeakfqSA model) for all six study reaches, the 95-percent confidence intervals about the low-probability quantile estimates (100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals) were reduced by at least 78 percent relative to those for the gaged records only. In some cases, 95-percent uncertainty intervals were reduced by 99 percent or more. For all study reaches except the two Boxelder Creek subreaches, quantile estimates for these long-term analyses were larger than for the short-term analyses. The 1972 flow for the Spring Creek study reach (21,800 ft3/s) corresponds with a recurrence interval of ~400 years. Recurrence intervals are ~500 years for the 1972 flood magnitudes along the lower Rapid Creek reach and the upstream subreach of Boxelder Creek. For the downstream subreach of Boxelder Creek, the large 1972 flood magnitude (50,500 ft3/s) exceeds the 500-year quantile estimate by about 35 percent. The recurrence interval of ~100 years for 1972 flooding along the Elk Creek study reach is small relative to other study reaches along the eastern margin of the Black Hills. All of the paleofloods plot within the bounds of a national envelope curve, indicating that the national curve represents exceedingly rare floods for the Black Hills area. Elk Creek, lower Rapid Creek, and the downstream subreach of Boxelder Creek all have paleofloods that plot above a regional envelope curve; in the case of Elk Creek, by a factor of nearly two. The Black Hills paleofloods represent some of the largest known floods, relative to drainage area, for the United States. Many of the other largest known United States floods are in areas with physiographic and climatologic conditions broadly similar to the Black Hills-semiarid and rugged landscapes that intercept and focus heavy precipitation from convective storm systems. The 1972 precipitation and runoff patterns, previous analyses of peak-flow records, and the paleoflood investigations of this study support a hypothesis of distinct differences in flood generation within the central Black Hills study area. The eastern Black Hills are susceptible to intense orographic lifting associated with convective storm systems and also have high relief, thin soils, and narrow and steep canyons-factors favoring generation of exceptionally heavy rain-producing thunderstorms and promoting runoff and rapid concentration of flow into stream channels. In contrast, storm potential is smaller in and near the Limestone Plateau area, and storm runoff is further reduced by substantial infiltration into the limestone, gentle topography, and extensive floodplain storage. Results of the paleoflood investigations are directly applicable only to the specific study reaches and in the case of Rapid Creek, only to pre-regulation conditions. Thus, approaches for broader applications were developed from inferences of overall flood-generation processes, and appropriate domains for application of results were described. Example applications were provided by estimating flood quantiles for selected streamgages, which also allowed direct comparison with results of at-site flood-frequency analyses from a previous study. Several broad issues and uncertainties were examined, including potential biases associated with stratigraphic records that inherently are not always complete, uncertainties regarding statistical approaches, and the unknown applicability of paleoflood records to future watershed conditions. The results of the paleoflood investigations, however, provide much better physically based information on low-probability floods than has been available previously, substantially improving estimates of the magnitude and frequency of large floods in these basins and reducing associated uncertainty.

Risk to life due to flooding in post-Katrina New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A.; Jonkman, S. N.; Van Ledden, M.

2015-01-01

Since the catastrophic flooding of New Orleans due to Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the city's hurricane protection system has been improved to provide protection against a hurricane load with a 1/100 per year exceedance frequency. This paper investigates the risk to life in post-Katrina New Orleans. In a flood risk analysis the probabilities and consequences of various flood scenarios have been analyzed for the central area of the city (the metro bowl) to give a preliminary estimate of the risk to life in the post-Katrina situation. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model has been used to simulate flood characteristics of various breaches. The model for estimation of fatality rates is based on the loss of life data for Hurricane Katrina. Results indicate that - depending on the flood scenario - the estimated loss of life in case of flooding ranges from about 100 to nearly 500, with the highest life loss due to breaching of the river levees leading to large flood depths. The probability and consequence estimates are combined to determine the individual risk and societal risk for New Orleans. When compared to risks of other large-scale engineering systems (e.g., other flood prone areas, dams and the nuclear sector) and acceptable risk criteria found in literature, the risks for the metro bowl are found to be relatively high. Thus, despite major improvements to the flood protection system, the flood risk to life of post-Katrina New Orleans is still expected to be significant. Indicative effects of reduction strategies on the risk level are discussed as a basis for further evaluation and discussion.

Use of Flood Seasonality in Pooling-Group Formation and Quantile Estimation: An Application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Bell, Victoria; Stewart, Elizabeth

2018-02-01

Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most commonly applied methods for estimating extreme flood events at ungauged sites or locations with short measurement records. It is based on: (i) the definition of a homogeneous group (pooling-group) of catchments, and on (ii) the use of the pooling-group data to estimate flood quantiles. Although many methods to define a pooling-group (pooling schemes, PS) are based on catchment physiographic similarity measures, in the last decade methods based on flood seasonality similarity have been contemplated. In this paper, two seasonality-based PS are proposed and tested both in terms of the homogeneity of the pooling-groups they generate and in terms of the accuracy in estimating extreme flood events. The method has been applied in 420 catchments in Great Britain (considered as both gauged and ungauged) and compared against the current Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) PS. Results for gauged sites show that, compared to the current PS, the seasonality-based PS performs better both in terms of homogeneity of the pooling-group and in terms of the accuracy of flood quantile estimates. For ungauged locations, a national-scale hydrological model has been used for the first time to quantify flood seasonality. Results show that in 75% of the tested locations the seasonality-based PS provides an improvement in the accuracy of the flood quantile estimates. The remaining 25% were located in highly urbanized, groundwater-dependent catchments. The promising results support the aspiration that large-scale hydrological models complement traditional methods for estimating design floods.

The weighted function method: A handy tool for flood frequency analysis or just a curiosity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Strupczewski, Witold G.

2018-04-01

The idea of the Weighted Function (WF) method for estimation of Pearson type 3 (Pe3) distribution introduced by Ma in 1984 has been revised and successfully applied for shifted inverse Gaussian (IGa3) distribution. Also the conditions of WF applicability to a shifted distribution have been formulated. The accuracy of WF flood quantiles for both Pe3 and IGa3 distributions was assessed by Monte Caro simulations under the true and false distribution assumption versus the maximum likelihood (MLM), moment (MOM) and L-moments (LMM) methods. Three datasets of annual peak flows of Polish catchments serve the case studies to compare the results of the WF, MOM, MLM and LMM performance for the real flood data. For the hundred-year flood the WF method revealed the explicit superiority only over the MLM surpassing the MOM and especially LMM both for the true and false distributional assumption with respect to relative bias and relative mean root square error values. Generally, the WF method performs well and for hydrological sample size and constitutes good alternative for the estimation of the flood upper quantiles.

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

2003-01-01

Regional equations for estimating 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood-peak discharges at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio were developed by means of ordinary and generalized least-squares (GLS) regression techniques. One-variable, simple equations and three-variable, full-model equations were developed on the basis of selected basin characteristics and flood-frequency estimates determined for 305 streamflow-gaging stations in Ohio and adjacent states. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from about 39 to 49 percent for the simple equations, and from about 34 to 41 percent for the full-model equations. Flood-frequency estimates determined by means of log-Pearson Type III analyses are reported along with weighted flood-frequency estimates, computed as a function of the log-Pearson Type III estimates and the regression estimates. Values of explanatory variables used in the regression models were determined from digital spatial data sets by means of a geographic information system (GIS), with the exception of drainage area, which was determined by digitizing the area within basin boundaries manually delineated on topographic maps. Use of GIS-based explanatory variables represents a major departure in methodology from that described in previous reports on estimating flood-frequency characteristics of Ohio streams. Examples are presented illustrating application of the regression equations to ungaged sites on ungaged and gaged streams. A method is provided to adjust regression estimates for ungaged sites by use of weighted and regression estimates for a gaged site on the same stream. A region-of-influence method, which employs a computer program to estimate flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites with similar characteristics, was also tested and compared to the GLS full-model equations. For all recurrence intervals, the GLS full-model equations had superior prediction accuracy relative to the simple equations and therefore are recommended for use.

Predicting landscape sensitivity to present and future floods in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Treesearch

Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Sarah L. Lewis; Brian Staab

2015-01-01

Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that...

Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.

2007-12-01

SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.

River flood seasonality in the Northeast United States and trends in annual timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, M. J.

2017-12-01

The New England and Mid-Atlantic regions of the Northeast United States have experienced climate-associated increases in both the magnitude and frequency of floods. However, a detailed understanding of flood seasonality across these regions, and how flood seasonality may have changed over the instrumental record, has not been established. The annual timing of river floods reflects the flood-generating mechanisms operating in a basin and many aquatic and riparian organisms are adapted to flood seasonality, as are human uses of river channels and floodplains. Changes in flood seasonality may indicate changes in flood-generating mechanisms, and their interactions, with important implications for habitats, floodplain infrastructure, and human communities. For example, changes in spring or fall flood timing may negatively or positively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. In this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasons at a monthly resolution for 90 climate-sensitive watersheds in New England and the Mid-Atlantic (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Historical trends in flood timing during the year are also investigated. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. The seasonality of flooding in these regions, and any historical changes, are considered in the context of other ongoing or expected phenological changes in the Northeast U.S. environment that affect flood generation—e.g., the timing of leaf-off/leaf-out for deciduous plants. How these factors interact will affect whether and how flood magnitudes and frequencies change in the future and associated impacts.

Floods in the English River basin, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heinitz, A.J.; Riddle, D.E.

1981-01-01

Information describing floods is essential for proper planning, design, and operation of bridges and other structures on or over streams and their flood plains. This report provides information on flood stages and discharges, flood magnitude and frequency, bench mark data, and flood profiles for the English River and some of its tributaries. It covers the English River, the North English River to near Guernsey, the south Eaglish River to Barnes City and the lower reaches of the Biddle English and Deep Rivers

Evaluation of urban flood damages in climate and land use changes: Case Studies from Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kefi, M.; Binaya, M. K.; Kumar, P.; Fukushi, K.

2017-12-01

Urbanization, changes in land use and global warming increase the threat of natural disasters such as flooding. In recent decades, it was observed a rise of intensity and frequency of flood events. The exposure both of people and the national economy to flood hazards is amplified and can induce serious economic and social damages. For this reason, local governments adopted several strategies to cope with flood risk in urban areas in particular, but a better comprehension of the flood hazard factors may enhance the efficiency of mitigating measures overall. For this research, a spatial analysis is applied to estimate future direct flood damage for 2030 in three Southeast Asian megacities: Jakarta (Indonesia), Metro-Manila (Philippines) and Hanoi (Vietnam). This comprehensive method combined flood characteristics (flood depth) obtained from flood simulation using FLO-2D, land use generated from supervised classification and remote sensing products, property value of affected buildings and flood damage rate derived from flood depth function. This function is established based on field surveys with local people affected by past flood events. Additionally, two scenarios were analyzed to simulate the future conditions. The first one is related to climate change and it is based on several General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, the second one is establish to point out the effect of adaptation strategies. The findings shows that the climate change combined with the expansion of built-up areas increase the vulnerability of urban areas to flooding and the economic damage. About 16%, 8% and 19% of flood inundation areas are expected to increase respectively in Metro-Manila, Jakarta and Hanoi. However, appropriate flood control measures can be helpful to reduce the impact of natural disaster. Furthermore, flood damage maps are generated at a large scale, which can be helpful to local stakeholders when prioritizing their mitigation strategies on urban disaster resilience.

Methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for urban and small, rural streams in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, 2011.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-03-01

The central purpose of this report is to present methods : for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on : urban and small, rural streams in the Southeast United States : with particular focus on Georgia, South Carolina, and North : Carolin...

Flood Frequency Analysis Under Non-stationarity Conditions: the Case of Southern Brazilian Hydroelectric Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartiko, Daniel; Chaffe, Pedro; Bonumá, Nadia

2017-04-01

Floods may be strongly affected by climate, land-use, land-cover and water infrastructure changes. However, it is common to model this process as stationary. This approach has been questioned, especially when it involves estimate of the frequency and magnitude of extreme events for designing and maintaining hydraulic structures, as those responsible for flood control and dams safety. Brazil is the third largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world and many of the country's dams are located in the Southern Region. So, it seems appropriate to investigate the presence of non-stationarity in the affluence in these plants. In our study, we used historical flood data from the Brazilian National Grid Operator (ONS) to explore trends in annual maxima in river flow of the 38 main rivers flowing to Southern Brazilian reservoirs (records range from 43 to 84 years). In the analysis, we assumed a two-parameter log-normal distribution a linear regression model was applied in order to allow for the mean to vary with time. We computed recurrence reduction factors to characterize changes in the return period of an initially estimated 100 year-flood by a log-normal stationary model. To evaluate whether or not a particular site exhibits positive trend, we only considered data series with linear regression slope coefficients that exhibit significance levels (p<0,05). The significance level was calculated using the one-sided Student's test. The trend model residuals were analyzed using the Anderson-Darling normality test, the Durbin-Watson test for the independence and the Breusch-Pagan test for heteroscedasticity. Our results showed that 22 of the 38 data series analyzed have a significant positive trend. The trends were mainly in three large basins: Iguazu, Uruguay and Paranapanema, which suffered changes in land use and flow regularization in the last years. The calculated return period for the series that presented positive trend varied from 50 to 77 years for a 100 year-flood estimated by stationary model when considering a planning horizon equal to ten years. We conclude that attention should be given for future projects developed in this area, including the incorporation of non-stationarity analysis, search for answers to such changes and incorporation of new data to increase the reliability of the estimates.

Risk analysis for the flood control capacity of dikes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Hsiao Ping; Yeh, Keh-Chia; Hsiao, Yi-Hua

2017-04-01

Climate change is the major reason for many extreme disaster events. In recent years, scientists have revealed many findings and most of them agree that the frequency of extreme weather and its corresponding hydrological impact will increase due to climate change. In such situation, the current hydrologic designs based upon historical observation, which could be changed, are necessary to review again under the scenario of climate change. It is for this reason that this study uses Kao-Ping River Basin as an example, using high resolution dynamical downscaling data (base period, near future, and end of the century) to simulate changes in hourly flow rate of typhoon events in each of the three 25-year periods. Results are further compared with the design flow rate announced by the competent authority of water resources, as well as recorded river water levels of the most severe typhoon event in history and risk analysis basic on factors, to evaluate the risk and impact of river flooding under climate change.From the simulation results, the frequency of exceeding design discharge in Kao-ping river catchment will increase in the end of century. The water level at these LI-LIN BRIDGE and SAN-TI-MEN gauges could be obviously influenced due to the extreme rainfall events, so that their flood control capacity should be assessed and improved.

Integrated Modeling Approach for the Development of Climate-Informed, Actionable Information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Judi, David R.; Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Waichler, Scott R.

Flooding is a prevalent natural disaster with both short and long-term social, economic, and infrastructure impacts. Changes in intensity and frequency of precipitation (including rain, snow, and rain on snow) events create challenges for the planning and management of resilient infrastructure and communities. While there is general acknowledgement that new infrastructure design should account for future climate change, no clear methods or actionable information is available to community planners and designers to ensure resilient design considering an uncertain climate future. This research used climate projections to drive high-resolution hydrology and flood models to evaluate social, economic, and infrastructure resilience formore » the Snohomish Watershed, WA, U.S.A. The proposed model chain has been calibrated and validated. Based on the established model chain, the peaks of precipitation and streamflows were found to shift from spring and summer to earlier winter season. The nonstationarity of peak discharges was discovered with more frequent and severe flood risks projected. The peak discharges were also projected to decrease for a certain period in the near future, which might be due to the reduced rain-on-snow events. This research was expected to provide a clear method for the incorporation of climate science in flood resilience analysis and to also provide actionable information relative to the frequency and intensity of future precipitation events.« less

Floral variation and environmental heterogeneity in a tristylous clonal aquatic of the Pantanal wetlands of Brazil

PubMed Central

Leme da Cunha, Nicolay; Fischer, Erich; Lorenz-Lemke, Aline P.; Barrett, Spencer C. H.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims The balance between stochastic forces and frequency-dependent mating largely governs style morph frequencies in heterostylous populations. In clonal species, deviations from equal morph ratios often result from founder events and unfavourable conditions for sexual reproduction. The aim of this study was to investigate whether different flooding regimes, because of their influence on sexual vs. clonal reproduction, are associated with regional variation in morph frequencies and floral trait differentiation in populations of the clonal, tristylous, aquatic Eichhornia azurea (Pontederiaceae) in the Pantanal wetlands of Brazil. Methods Style morph frequencies were sampled from 73 populations distributed across four flooding regimes differing in depth and duration. Measurements of flower size, sex-organ dimension, pollen size and pollen production were made in selected populations, and pollinator assemblages and their functional traits were recorded. Key Results Most populations of E. azurea were tristylous (78 %), but the majority exhibited uneven morph ratios. The frequency of the mid-styled morph was significantly lower than that of the long- and short-styled morphs. Morph evenness was positively associated with population size but not with flooding regime. There were significant phenotypic differences among flooding regimes for all floral traits, including populations with reduced flower size, sex-organ length and smaller pollen. Pollinator assemblages varied with flood duration. Conclusions The similar morph structure and evenness of populations, regardless of flooding regime, suggest that sexual reproduction and clonal dispersal are sufficiently common to prevent the signature of founder events from dominating in a region. However, the pervasive occurrence of biased morph ratios in most populations suggests that many are in a non-equilibrium state. The reduced frequency of the mid-styled morph in trimorphic and dimorphic populations may be associated with the weak self-incompatibility of this morph resulting in selfing and inbreeding depression. Clonality in E. azurea and the weak self-incompatibility of the mid-styled morph may make it more vulnerable to geitonogamous selfing. PMID:25180289

Historical floods reconstruction using NOAA 20CR global climate reanalysis over the last 150 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathevet, T.; Brigode, P.; Jégonday, S.; Hingray, B.; Gailhard, J.; Wilhelm, B.

2017-12-01

Since several years, climatologists are producing long reanalysis for studying the variability of global climate over the last 150 years. For hydrologists, these datasets offer interesting opportunities for reconstructing historical flood events, and thus increasing the sample size used for flood frequency analysis. In this study, a streamflow reconstruction method based on the analogy of atmospheric situations (using NOAA 20CR reanalysis) for the reconstruction of climatic series and on a rainfall-runoff model for the streamflow reconstruction has been applied over different French catchments at the daily timestep. The studied catchments have been selected because of the availability of long observed streamflow series (used for quantifying the performances of the flood reconstructions) and for their different hydro-climatological regimes. Different methodologies have been tested for the reconstruction of daily climatic series over the 1851-2014 period, using geopotential heights and additional variables available within the 20CR reanalysis (relative humidity, precipitable water, etc.). Long observed climatic series have also been used when available as a reference for the climatic reconstructions. The different reconstruction methods have been finally ranked in terms of their historical flood reconstruction performances, quantified by flood types (autumn or winter floods) and atmospheric genesis (using a weather pattern classification). The obtained results indicate that using additional 20CR variables to the geopotential heights only slightly improve the flood reconstructions, while using observed climatic series improves significantly the flood reconstruction over the different catchments.

Long term changes in flooding and heavy rainfall associated with North Atlantic tropical cyclones: Roles of the North Atlantic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Yog N.; Villarini, Gabriele; Zhang, Wei; Vecchi, Gabriel A.

2018-04-01

The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) to flooding and heavy rainfall across the continental United States. Analyses highlight the spatial variability in these hazards, their temporal changes in terms of frequency and magnitude, and their connection to large-scale climate, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use long-term stream and rain gage measurements, and our analyses are based on annual maxima (AMs) and peaks-over-threshold (POTs). TCs contribute to ∼20-30% of AMs and POTs over Florida and coastal areas of the eastern United States, and the contribution decreases as we move inland. We do not detect statistically significant trends in the magnitude or frequency of TC floods. Regarding the role of climate, NAO and ENSO do not play a large role in controlling the frequency and magnitude of TC flooding. The connection between heavy rainfall and TCs is comparable to what observed in terms of flooding. Unlike flooding, NAO plays a significant role in TC-related extreme rainfall along the U.S. East Coast, while ENSO is most strongly linked to the TC precipitation in Texas.

More frequent flooding? Changes in flood frequency in the Pearl River basin, China, since 1951 and over the past 1000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Sun, Peng

2018-05-01

Flood risks across the Pearl River basin, China, were evaluated using a peak flood flow dataset covering a period of 1951-2014 from 78 stations and historical flood records of the past 1000 years. The generalized extreme value (GEV) model and the kernel estimation method were used to evaluate frequencies and risks of hazardous flood events. Results indicated that (1) no abrupt changes or significant trends could be detected in peak flood flow series at most of the stations, and only 16 out of 78 stations exhibited significant peak flood flow changes with change points around 1990. Peak flood flow in the West River basin increased and significant increasing trends were identified during 1981-2010; decreasing peak flood flow was found in coastal regions and significant trends were observed during 1951-2014 and 1966-2014. (2) The largest three flood events were found to cluster in both space and time. Generally, basin-scale flood hazards can be expected in the West and North River basins. (3) The occurrence rate of floods increased in the middle Pearl River basin but decreased in the lower Pearl River basin. However, hazardous flood events were observed in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, and this is particularly true for the past 100 years. However, precipitation extremes were subject to moderate variations and human activities, such as building of levees, channelization of river systems, and rapid urbanization; these were the factors behind the amplification of floods in the middle and lower Pearl River basin, posing serious challenges for developing measures of mitigation of flood hazards in the lower Pearl River basin, particularly the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.

The complexities of urban flood response: Flood frequency analyses for the Charlotte metropolitan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Zhengzheng; Smith, James A.; Yang, Long; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Chaney, Molly; Ten Veldhuis, Marie-Claire; Deng, Huiping; Liu, Shuguang

2017-08-01

We examine urban flood response through data-driven analyses for a diverse sample of "small" watersheds (basin scale ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2) in the Charlotte Metropolitan region. These watersheds have experienced extensive urbanization and suburban development since the 1960s. The objective of this study is to develop a broad characterization of land surface and hydrometeorological controls of urban flood hydrology. Our analyses are based on peaks-over-threshold flood data developed from USGS streamflow observations and are motivated by problems of flood hazard characterization for urban regions. We examine flood-producing rainfall using high-resolution (1 km2 spatial resolution and 15 min time resolution), bias-corrected radar rainfall fields that are developed through the Hydro-NEXRAD system. The analyses focus on the 2001-2015 period. The results highlight the complexities of urban flood response. There are striking spatial heterogeneities in flood peak magnitudes, response times, and runoff ratios across the study region. These spatial heterogeneities are mainly linked to watershed scale, the distribution of impervious cover, and storm water management. Contrasting land surface properties also determine the mixture of flood-generating mechanisms for a particular watershed. Warm-season thunderstorm systems and tropical cyclones are main flood agents in Charlotte, with winter/spring storms playing a role in less-urbanized watersheds. The mixture of flood agents exerts a strong impact on the upper tail of flood frequency distributions. Antecedent watershed wetness plays a minor role in urban flood response, compared with less-urbanized watersheds. Implications for flood hazard characterization in urban watersheds and for advances in flood science are discussed.

Magnitude and frequency of Iowa floods, Part two

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwob, Harlan H.

1966-01-01

Floqd records fo.r regular and partial-record gaging stations are contained in the following pages. Each listing contains the station number .and name, descriptive paragraphs pertaining to the station, qnd a listing of the flood peaks available through the 1965 water year. Peaks above a base as well as annual peaks are listed. These provide the data for a partial-duration flood-frequency curve. Most of the material is self-explan~tory and needs no discussion. However, a few items may be made clearer by the brief explanation which follows. 

Transportation and Hydrology Studies of the U.S. Geological Survey in New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lombard, Pamela J.

2016-03-23

In New England, the USGS is conducting investigations to improve flood flow estimation techniques, to define channel characteristics at bankfull discharge, and to document storm tide as a result of major coastal storms. Current locally focused investigations include examination of flow frequency in rural, urban, and small watersheds; documentation of extreme inland floods along with flood-frequency updates; examination of the effects of roadway blasting on groundwater quality; and determinations of the effects of road salting on the quality of runoff and receiving waters.

Estimation of design floods in ungauged catchments using a regional index flood method. A case study of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobert, Joel; Mugo, Margaret; Gadain, Hussein

Reliable estimation of flood magnitudes corresponding to required return periods, vital for structural design purposes, is impacted by lack of hydrological data in the study area of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya. Use of regional information, derived from data at gauged sites and regionalized for use at any location within a homogenous region, would improve the reliability of the design flood estimation. Therefore, the regional index flood method has been applied. Based on data from 14 gauged sites, a delineation of the basin into two homogenous regions was achieved using elevation variation (90-m DEM), spatial annual rainfall pattern and Principal Component Analysis of seasonal rainfall patterns (from 94 rainfall stations). At site annual maximum series were modelled using the Log normal (LN) (3P), Log Logistic Distribution (LLG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments. Goodness of fit tests were applied and the GEV was identified as the most appropriate model for each site. Based on the GEV model, flood quantiles were estimated and regional frequency curves derived from the averaged at site growth curves. Using the least squares regression method, relationships were developed between the index flood, which is defined as the Mean Annual Flood (MAF) and catchment characteristics. The relationships indicated area, mean annual rainfall and altitude were the three significant variables that greatly influence the index flood. Thereafter, estimates of flood magnitudes in ungauged catchments within a homogenous region were estimated from the derived equations for index flood and quantiles from the regional curves. These estimates will improve flood risk estimation and to support water management and engineering decisions and actions.

On the stationarity of Floods in west African rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NKA, B. N.; Oudin, L.; Karambiri, H.; Ribstein, P.; Paturel, J. E.

2014-12-01

West Africa undergoes a big change since the years 1970-1990, characterized by very low precipitation amounts, leading to low stream flows in river basins, except in the Sahelian region where the impact of human activities where pointed out to justify the substantial increase of floods in some catchments. More recently, studies showed an increase in the frequency of intense rainfall events, and according to observations made over the region, increase of flood events is also noticeable during the rainy season. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity on flood events is questionable and the reliability of flood evolution and climatic patterns is justified. In this work, we analyzed the trends of floods events for several catchments in the Sahelian and Sudanian regions of Burkina Faso. We used thirteen tributaries of large river basins (Niger, Nakambe, Mouhoun, Comoé) for which daily rainfall and flow data were collected from national hydrological and meteorological services of the country. We used Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests to detect trends and break points in the annual time series of 8 rainfall indices and the annual maximum discharge records. We compare the trends of precipitation indices and flood size records to analyze the possible causality link between floods size and rainfall pattern. We also analyze the stationary of the frequency of flood exceeding the ten year return period level. The samples were extracted by a Peak over threshold method and the quantification of change in flood frequency was assessed by using a test developed by Lang M. (1995). The results exhibit two principal behaviors. Generally speaking, no trend is detected on catchments annual maximum discharge, but positive break points are pointed out in a group of three right bank tributaries of the Niger river that are located in the sahelian region between 300mm to 650mm. These same catchments show as well an increase of the yearly number of flood greater than the ten year flood since 1980. However, there is no consistency between rain fall pattern and flood size pattern in the entire region.

Variation in flood tolerance of container-grown seedlings of swamp white oak, bur oak, and white oak

Treesearch

Michael P. Walsh; J.W. Van Sambeek; Mark V. Coggeshall

2008-01-01

How much variation in flood tolerance exists among seedlings within oak species, given the flood frequency of sites from which acorns are collected, has been largely unexplored. Our studies examined initial growth and flood tolerance for seedlings of swamp white oak (Quercus bicolor Willd.), bur oak (Q. macrocarpa L.), and white...

Frequency assessment of spatially distributed generations of flood scenarios: an application on Italian territory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lomazzi, M.; Roth, G.; Rudari, R.; Taramasso, A. C.; Ghizzoni, T.; Benedetti, R.; Espa, G.; Terpessi, C.

2009-12-01

The flooding risk impact on society cannot be understated: it influences land use and territorial planning and development at both physical and regulatory levels. To cope with it, a variety of actions can be put in place, involving multidisciplinary competences. Mitigation measures goes from the improvement of monitoring systems to the development of hydraulic structures, throughout land use restrictions, civil protection and insurance plans. All of those options present social and economic impacts, either positive or negative, whose proper estimate should rely on the assumption of appropriate - present and future - scenarios, i.e. quantitative event descriptions in terms of i) the flood hazard, with its probability of occurrence, extension, intensity, and duration, ii) the exposed values and iii) their vulnerability. At present, initial attention has been devoted to the design of flood scenarios, or ensembles of them, and to the evaluation of their frequency of occurrence. In the present work, a model for spatially distributed flood scenarios generation and frequency assessment is proposed and applied to the Italian territory. The study area has been divided into homogeneous regions according to their hydrologic, orographic and meteoclimatic characteristics. A statistical model for flood scenarios simulation has been implemented throughout a conditional approach based on MCMC simulations by using i) a historical flood events catalogue; ii) a homogeneous regions correlation matrix; and iii) an auxiliary variables data set. In this framework, the role of the information stored in the historical flood events catalogue "Aree Vulnerate Italiane" (AVI, http://avi.gndci.cnr.it/), produced by the Italian National Research Council, is of crucial importance.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble

PubMed Central

Dankers, Rutger; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Falloon, Pete D.; Fekete, Balázs M.; Gosling, Simon N.; Heinke, Jens; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20–45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5–30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies. PMID:24344290

Preliminary evaluation of flood frequency relations in the urban areas of Memphis, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boning, Charles W.

1977-01-01

A storm-runoff relation for streams in the urban areas of Memphis was determined by a statistical evaluation of 59 flood discharges from 19 gaging stations. These flood discharges were related to drainage area, percent imperviousness of the drainage basin, and rainfall occuring over 120-minute periods. The defined relation is Q=m3A*777A - .02 tI,,,,P + 1j-227 (1120).539(t120).40 where Q is flood discharge in cfs, A is drainage area in square miles, IMP is percent imperviousness in the basin, and I120 is rainfall in inches, over 120 minute time period. The defined relation was used to synthesize sets of annual flood peaks for drainage basins ranging from .05 square miles to 10 square miles and imperviousness ranging from 0 to 80 percent for the period of rainfall record at Memphis. From these series of flood peaks, frequency relations were defined and presented for 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 year recurrent intervals.

Changing pattern of natural hazards due to extreme hydro-meteorological conditions (Apulia, southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polemio, Maurizio; Lonigro, Teresa

2013-04-01

Recent international researches have underlined the evidences of climate changes throughout the world. Among the consequences of climate change, there is the increase in the frequency and magnitude of natural disasters, such as droughts, windstorms, heat waves, landslides, floods and secondary floods (i.e. rapid accumulation or pounding of surface water with very low flow velocity). The Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) can be defined as the occurrence of one or more simultaneous aforementioned phenomena causing damages. They represent a serious problem, especially in DHE-prone areas with growing urbanisation. In these areas the increasing frequency of extreme hydrological events could be related to climate variations and/or urban development. The historical analysis of DHEs can support decision making and land-use planning, ultimately reducing natural risks. The paper proposes a methodology, based on both historical and time series approaches, used for describing the influence of climatic variability on the number of phenomena observed. The historical approach is finalised to collect phenomenon historical data. The historical flood and landslide data are important for the comprehension of the evolution of a study area and for the estimation of risk scenarios as a basis for civil protection purposes. Phenomenon historical data is useful for expanding the historical period of investigation in order to assess the occurrence trend of DHEs. The time series approach includes the collection and the statistical analysis of climatic and rainfall data (monthly rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature data together with the annual maximum of short-duration rainfall data, from 1 hour to 5 days), which are also used as a proxy for floods and landslides. The climatic and rainfall data are useful to characterise the climate variations and trends and to roughly assess the effects of these trends on river discharge and on the triggering of landslides. The time series approach is completed by tools to analyse simultaneously all data types. The methodology was tested considering a selected Italian region (Apulia, southern Italy). The data were collected in two databases: a damaging hydrogeological event database (1186 landslides and floods since 1918) and a climate database (from 1877; short-duration rainfall from 1921). A statistically significant decreasing trend of rainfall intensity and an increasing trend of temperature, landslides, and DHEs were observed. A generalised decreasing trend of short-duration rainfall was observed. If there is not an evident relationship between climate variability and the variability of DHE occurrences, the role of anthropogenic modifications (increasing use or misuse of flood- and landslide-prone areas) could be hypothesized to justify the increasing occurrences of floods and landslides.. This study identifies the advantages of a simplifying approach to reduce the intrinsic complexities of the spatial-temporal analysis of climate variability, permitting the simultaneous analysis of the modification of flood and landslide occurrences.

Avian nest box selection and nest success in burned and unburned southwestern riparian forests

Treesearch

D. Max Smith; Jeffrey F. Kelly; Deborah M. Finch

2007-01-01

Riparian forest communities in the southwestern United States were historically structured by a disturbance regime of annual flooding. In recent decades, however, frequency of flooding has decreased and frequency of wildfires has increased. Riparian forests provide important breeding habitat for a large variety of bird species, and the effects of this altered...

Seismic signature of turbulence during the 2017 Oroville Dam spillway erosion crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodling, Phillip J.; Lekic, Vedran; Prestegaard, Karen

2018-05-01

Knowing the location of large-scale turbulent eddies during catastrophic flooding events improves predictions of erosive scour. The erosion damage to the Oroville Dam flood control spillway in early 2017 is an example of the erosive power of turbulent flow. During this event, a defect in the simple concrete channel quickly eroded into a 47 m deep chasm. Erosion by turbulent flow is difficult to evaluate in real time, but near-channel seismic monitoring provides a tool to evaluate flow dynamics from a safe distance. Previous studies have had limited ability to identify source location or the type of surface wave (i.e., Love or Rayleigh wave) excited by different river processes. Here we use a single three-component seismometer method (frequency-dependent polarization analysis) to characterize the dominant seismic source location and seismic surface waves produced by the Oroville Dam flood control spillway, using the abrupt change in spillway geometry as a natural experiment. We find that the scaling exponent between seismic power and release discharge is greater following damage to the spillway, suggesting additional sources of turbulent energy dissipation excite more seismic energy. The mean azimuth in the 5-10 Hz frequency band was used to resolve the location of spillway damage. Observed polarization attributes deviate from those expected for a Rayleigh wave, though numerical modeling indicates these deviations may be explained by propagation up the uneven hillside topography. Our results suggest frequency-dependent polarization analysis is a promising approach for locating areas of increased flow turbulence. This method could be applied to other erosion problems near engineered structures as well as to understanding energy dissipation, erosion, and channel morphology development in natural rivers, particularly at high discharges.

Precise ground motion measurements to support multi-hazard analysis in Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koudogbo, Fifamè; Duro, Javier; Garcia Robles, Javier; Abidin, Hasanuddin Z.

2015-04-01

Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia and is home to approximately 10 million people on the coast of the Java Sea. The Capital District of Jakarta (DKI) sits in the lowest lying areas of the basin. Its topography varies, with the northern part just meters above current sea level and lying on a flood plain. Subsequently, this portion of the city frequently floods. Flood events have been increasing in severity during the past decade. The February 2007 event inundated 235 Km2 (about 36%) of the city, by up to seven meters in some areas. This event affected more than 2.6 million people; the estimated financial and economic losses from this event amounted to US900 million [1][2]. Inundations continue to occur under any sustained rainfall conditions. Flood events in Jakarta are expected to become more frequent in coming years, with a shift from previously slow natural processes with low frequency to a high frequency process resulting in severe socio-economic damage. Land subsidence in Jakarta results in increased vulnerability to flooding due to the reduced gravitational capacity to channel storm flows to the sea and an increased risk of tidal flooding. It continues at increasingly alarming rates, principally caused by intensive deep groundwater abstraction [3]. Recent studies have found typical subsidence rates of 7.5-10 cm a year. In localized areas of north Jakarta subsidence in the range 15-25 cm a year is occurring which, if sustained, would result in them sinking to 4-5 m below sea level by 2025 [3]. ALTAMIRA INFORMATION, company specialized in ground motion monitoring, has developed GlobalSARTM, which combines several processing techniques and algorithms based on InSAR technology, to achieve ground motion measurements with millimetric precision and high accuracy [4]. Within the RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialisation and Of Risk) project, ALTAMIRA INFORMATION will apply GlobalSARTM to assess recent land subsidence in Jakarta, based on the processing of Very High Resolution COSMO-SkyMed data acquired from the second semester 2014. Those recent measurements will be analyzed and compared with results obtained previously within the ESA /World Bank EOWorld initiative [4]. An updated status of the situation in Jakarta will be derived of this analysis; this information will serve within RASOR for the assessment of future risk which is valuable for planning of flood protection. [1] 'News and Broadcast: Jakarta Urgent Flood Mitigation Project/Jakarta Emergency Dredging Initiative Project (JUFMP/JEDI Project)', http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/. [2]http://www.who.int/hac/crises/idn/sitreps/indonesia_floods_map_affected_areas_5feb2007.pdf. [3] Abidin, H. Z., Andreas, H., Gumilar, I., Gamal, M., Fukuda, Y. and Deguchi, T., 'Land Subsidence and Urban Development in Jakarta (Indonesia)', Proceedings of 7th FIG Regional Conference Spatial Data Serving People: Land Governance and the Environment - Building the Capacity (2009). [4] European Space Agency and World Bank, Earth Observation for sustainable Development, Partnership report (2013).

The influence of major dams on hydrology through the drainage network of the Sacramento River basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, M.B.

2007-01-01

This paper reports basinwide patterns of hydrograph alteration via statistical and graphical analysis from a network of long-term streamflow gauges located various distances downstream of major dams and confluences in the Sacramento River basin in California, USA. Streamflow data from 10 gauging stations downstream of major dams were divided into hydrologic series corresponding to the periods before and after dam construction. Pre- and post-dam flows were compared with respect to hydrograph characteristics representing frequency, magnitude and shape: annual flood peak, annual flow trough, annual flood volume, time to flood peak, flood drawdown time and interarrival time. The use of such a suite of characteristics within a statistical and graphical framework allows for generalising distinct strategies of flood control operation that can be identified without any a priori knowledge of operations rules. Dam operation is highly dependent on the ratio of reservoir capacity to annual flood volume (impounded runoff index). Dams with high values of this index generally completely cut off flood peaks thus reducing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. Those with low values conduct early and late flow releases to extend the hydrograph, increasing time to peak, drawdown time and annual flood volume. The analyses reveal minimal flood control benefits from foothill dams in the lower Sacramento River (i.e. dissipation of the down-valley flood control signal). The lower part of the basin is instead reliant on a weir and bypass system to control lowland flooding. Data from a control gauge (i.e. with no upstream dams) suggest a background signature of global climate change expressed as shortened flood hydrograph falling limbs and lengthened flood interarrival times at low exceedence probabilities. This research has implications for flood control, water resource management, aquatic and riparian ecosystems and for rehabilitation strategies involving flow alteration and/or manipulation of sediment supplies. Copyright ?? 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Floods at Mount Clemens, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiitala, S.W.; Ash, Arlington D.

1962-01-01

The approximate areas inundated during the flood of April 5-6, 1947, by Clinton River, North Branch and Middle Branch of Clinton River, and Harrington Drain, in Clinton Township, Macomb County, Mich., are shown on a topographic map base to record the flood hazard in graphical form. The flood of April 1947 is the highest known since 1934 and probably since 1902. Greater floods are possible, but no attempt was made to define their probable overflow limits.The Clinton River Cut-Off Canal, a flood-relief channel which diverts flow directly into Lake St. Clair from a point about 1500 feet downstream from Gratiot Avenue (about 9 miles upstream from the mouth) has been in operation since October 1951. The approximate limits of overflow that would results from a flood equivalent in discharge to that of April 1947, and occurring with the Cut-Off Canal in operation, are also shown. Although the Cut-Off Canal may reduce the frequency and depth of flooding it will not necessarily eliminate future flooding in the area. Improvements and additions to the drainage systems in the basin, expanding urbanization, new highways, and other cultural changes may influence the inundation pattern of future floods.The preparation of this flood inundation map was financed through a cooperative agreement between Clinton Township, Macomb County, Mich., and the U.S. Geological Survey.Backwater curves used to define the profile for a hypothetical flood on the Clinton River downstream from Moravian Drive, equivalent in discharge to the 1947 flood, but occurring with the present Cut-Off Canal in operation; flood stage established at the gaging station on Clinton River at Mount Clemens; and supplementary floodmark elevations were furnished by the Corps of Engineers.Bench-mark elevations and field survey data, used in the analysis of floods on Harrington Drain, were furnished by the Macomb County Drain Commission.

Comparison of the 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods computed from observed data with the 1995 urban flood-frequency estimating equations for Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Ernest J.

1997-01-01

Flood-frequency relations were computed for 28 urban stations, for 2-, 25-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods and the computations were compared to corresponding recurrence interval floods computed from the estimating equations from a 1995 investigation. Two stations were excluded from further comparisons or analyses because neither station had a significant flood during the period of observed record. The comparisons, based on the student's t-test statistics at the 0.05 level of significance, indicate that the mean residuals of the 25- and 100-year floods were negatively biased by 26.2 percent and 31.6 percent, respectively, at the 26 stations. However, the mean residuals of the 2-year floods were 2.5 percent lower than the mean of the 2-year floods computed from the equations, and were not significantly biased. The reason for this negative bias is that the period of observed record at the 26 stations was a relatively dry period. At 25 of the 26 stations, the two highest simulated peaks used to develop the estimating equations occurred many years before the observed record began. However, no attempt was made to adjust the estimating equations because higher peaks could occur after the period of observed record and an adjustment to the equations would cause an underestimation of design floods.

Emergency room visits for acute gastrointestinal illness following flooding: A case-crossover study

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change may alter the frequency of precipitation and flooding which can increase fecal-oral transmission of acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) through contact with contaminated items or water. Few studies have quantified the risk associated with flood events in the Unite...

Use of historical information in extreme surge frequency estimation: case of the marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

2014-09-01

Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g. 1000 year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) had shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea levels data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the Peaks-Over-Threshold method with HI (POTH) and the Block Maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical Historical Maxima (HMax) data, and Over a Threshold Supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where the storm Xynthia induced an outlier, to illustrate their potentials, to compare their performances and especially to analyze the impact of the use of HI on the extreme surge frequency estimation.

Use of historical information in extreme-surge frequency estimation: the case of marine flooding on the La Rochelle site in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, Y.; Bardet, L.; Duluc, C.-M.; Rebour, V.

2015-07-01

Nuclear power plants located in the French Atlantic coast are designed to be protected against extreme environmental conditions. The French authorities remain cautious by adopting a strict policy of nuclear-plants flood prevention. Although coastal nuclear facilities in France are designed to very low probabilities of failure (e.g., 1000-year surge), exceptional surges (outliers induced by exceptional climatic events) have shown that the extreme sea levels estimated with the current statistical approaches could be underestimated. The estimation of extreme surges then requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a more solid theoretical motivation. This paper deals with extreme-surge frequency estimation using historical information (HI) about events occurred before the systematic record period. It also contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. The frequency models presented in the present paper have been quite successful in the field of hydrometeorology and river flooding but they have not been applied to sea level data sets to prevent marine flooding. In this work, we suggest two methods of incorporating the HI: the peaks-over-threshold method with HI (POTH) and the block maxima method with HI (BMH). Two kinds of historical data can be used in the POTH method: classical historical maxima (HMax) data, and over-a-threshold supplementary (OTS) data. In both cases, the data are structured in historical periods and can be used only as complement to the main systematic data. On the other hand, in the BMH method, the basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of HI is that at least one threshold of perception exists for the whole period (historical and systematic) and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, only information about surges above this threshold have been recorded or archived. The two frequency models were applied to a case study from France, at the La Rochelle site where the storm Xynthia induced an outlier, to illustrate their potentials, to compare their performances and especially to analyze the impact of the use of HI on the extreme-surge frequency estimation.

Towards a Unified Framework in Hydroclimate Extremes Prediction in Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradkhani, H.; Yan, H.; Zarekarizi, M.; Bracken, C.

2016-12-01

Spatio-temporal analysis and prediction of hydroclimate extremes are of paramount importance in disaster mitigation and emergency management. The IPCC special report on managing the risks of extreme events and disasters emphasizes that the global warming would change the frequency, severity, and spatial pattern of extremes. In addition to climate change, land use and land cover changes also influence the extreme characteristics at regional scale. Therefore, natural variability and anthropogenic changes to the hydroclimate system result in nonstationarity in hydroclimate variables. In this presentation recent advancements in developing and using Bayesian approaches to account for non-stationarity in hydroclimate extremes are discussed. Also, implications of these approaches in flood frequency analysis, treatment of spatial dependence, the impact of large-scale climate variability, the selection of cause-effect covariates, with quantification of model errors in extreme prediction is explained. Within this framework, the applicability and usefulness of the ensemble data assimilation for extreme flood predictions is also introduced. Finally, a practical and easy to use approach for better communication with decision-makers and emergency managers is presented.

Continuous earlywood vessels chronologies in floodplain ring-porous species can improve dendrohydrological reconstructions of spring high flows and flood levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kames, S.; Tardif, J. C.; Bergeron, Y.

2016-03-01

Plants respond to environmental stimuli through changes in growth and development. Characteristics of wood cells such as the cross-sectional area of vessel elements (hereafter referred to as vessels) may store information about environmental factors present at the time of vessel differentiation. The analysis of vessel characteristics therefore offers a different time resolution than annual ring width because vessels in tree rings differentiate within days to a few weeks. Little research has been conducted on the sensitivity of earlywood vessels in ring-porous species in response to flooding. The general objectives of this study were to determine the plasticity of earlywood vessel to high flows and spring flooding in floodplain black ash (Fraxinus nigra Marsh.) trees and to assess the utility of developing continuous earlywood vessel chronologies in dendrohydrological reconstruction. In contrast, most dendrohydrological studies until now have mainly used vessel anomalies (flood rings) as discrete variables to identify exceptional flood events. The study area is located in the boreal region of northwestern Québec. Vessel and ring-width chronologies were generated from F. nigra trees growing on the floodplain of Lake Duparquet. Spring discharge had among all hydro-climatic variables the strongest impact on vessel formation and this signal was coherent spatially and in the frequency domain. The mean vessel area chronology was significantly and negatively correlated to discharge and both the linearity and the strength of this association were unique. In floodplain F. nigra trees, spring flooding promoted the formation of more abundant but smaller earlywood vessels. Earlywood vessels chronologies were also significantly associated with other hydrological indicators like Lake Duparquet's ice break-up date and both ice-scar frequency and height chronologies. These significant relationships stress the utility of developing continuous vessels chronologies for hydrological reconstructions prior to instrumental data. Continuous earlywood vessel chronologies may also be useful in determining the impact of altered hydrological regime in floodplain habitat regulated by spring floods. Future research should involve quantifying the impact of high flows and flooding on other cell constituents and also determining the plasticity and utility of continuous anatomical series in floodplain diffuse-porous species.

Flood risk changes over centuries in Rome: an empirical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Saccà, Smeralda; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Grimaldi, Salvatore; Crisci, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

Over centuries, the development of the historical city of Rome -close to one of the largest Italian rivers, the Tiber- has been intertwined with the magnitude and frequency of flooding events. The ancient Rome mostly developed on the (seven) hills, while the Tiber's floodplain was mainly exploited for agricultural purposes. A few small communities did settle in the riparian areas of the Tiber, but they had a relatively peaceful relationships with the frequent occurrence of flooding events. Nowadays, numerous people live in modern districts in the Tiber's floodplain, unaware of their exposure to potentially catastrophic flooding. The main goal of this research is to explore the dynamics of changing flood risk over the centuries between these two extreme pictures of the ancient and contemporary Rome. To this end, we carried out a socio-hydrological study by exploiting long time series of physical (flooding, river morphology) and social (urbanization, population dynamics) processes together with information about human interactions with the environment (flood defense structures). This empirical analysis showed how human and physical systems have been co-evolving over time, while being abruptly altered by the occurrence of extreme events. For instance, a large flooding event occurred in 1870 and contributed to the constructions of levees, which in turn facilitated the development of new urban areas in the Tiber's floodplain, while changed the societal memory of floods as well as the communities' perception of risk. This research work was also used to test the hypotheses of recent-developed models conceptualizing the interplay between floods and societies and simulating the long-term behavior of coupled human-water systems. The outcomes of this test provided interesting insights about the dynamics of flood risk, which are expected to support a better anticipation of future changes.

A 320-year long series of Danube floods in Central Hungary (Budapest and Pest County): a frequency-magnitude-seasonality overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Salinas, Jose; Bloeschl, Guenter

2015-04-01

The present paper is based on a recently developed database including contemporary original, administrative, legal and private source materials (published and archival) as well as media reports related to the floods occurred in the town of Budapest (historical towns of Pest, Buda) and Central Hungary (historical Pest-Pilis-Solt County). As for the archival evidence, main bases of investigation are the administrative sources such as town council protocols and county meeting protocols of Budapest and historical Pest-Pilis-Solt County: in these (legal-)administrative documents damaging events (natural/environmental hazards) were systematically recorded. Moreover, other source types such as taxation-related damage accounts as well as private and official reports, letters and correspondence (published, unpublished) were also included. Concerning published evidence, a most important source is flood reports in contemporary newspapers; however, other published sources (e.g. narratives, fund raising circulars etc.; both published and unpublished) also contained useful flood-related information. Beyond providing information on the strength and weaknesses of different sources types and the temporal and spatial distribution of evidence, a general background on the contemporary environmental and hydrological/hydromorphological conditions of the study area (and its changes during and after river regulations) are also provided. However, in the presentation the main focus is on the analysis of flood rich flood poor periods of the last more than 300 years; furthermore, the seasonality distribution as well as the magnitude of Danube flood events - and their spatial differences are discussed. In case of Budapest and Central Hungary, with respect to the greatest flood events, ice jam floods played a rather significant role before river regulation works. Due to this fact the main types of flood events (including their main causes), with special emphasis on ice jam floods, are discussed separate.

Flood events across the North Atlantic region - past development and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, Bettina; Dieppois, Bastien; Lawler, Damian; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

2016-04-01

Flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. An increase in winter and spring flooding across much of northern Europe in recent years opened up the question of changing underlying hydro-climatic drivers of flood events. Predicting the manifestation of such changes is difficult due to the natural variability and fluctuations in northern hydrological systems caused by large-scale atmospheric circulations, especially under altered climate conditions. Improving knowledge on the complexity of these hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of flood events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for the North Atlantic region where both physical catchment properties and large-scale atmospheric circulations have a profound influence on floods. This study explores changes in streamflow across North Atlantic region catchments. An emphasis is placed on high-flow events, namely the timing and magnitude of past flood events, and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity by applying a flood frequency analysis. The issue of non-stationarity of flood return periods is important when linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Natural fluctuations in these circulations are found to have a strong influence on the outcome causing natural variability in streamflow records. Long time series and a multi-temporal approach allows for determining drivers of floods and linking streamflow to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Exploring changes in selected hydrological signatures consistency was found across much of the North Atlantic region suggesting a shift in flow regime. The lack of an overall regional pattern suggests that how catchments respond to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics. A better understanding of hydrological response to climate drivers is essential for example for forecasting purposes.

Abundance of wind scorpions (Solifugae: Eremobatidae) in riparian forests disturbed by grazing, fire, and flood in Central New Mexico, USA

Treesearch

D. Max Smith; Deborah M. Finch

2011-01-01

Historically, flood was the primary disturbance structuring riparian plant and animal communities in the southwestern United States. In many areas, however, livestock grazing and wildfire occur more frequently than flooding. Research has shown that changes in flood and fire frequency affect the composition of riparian surface-active arthropod communities (Bess et al....

Evaluating relationships between natural resource management, land use changes, and flooding in the Appalachian region

Treesearch

Nicolas P. Zegre; Samuel J. Lamont

2013-01-01

Th e Appalachian Region has a long history of natural resource management and recurrent history of frequent and large-scale floods. Land use activities such as urbanization, mining, forest harvesting, and agriculture can have a noticeable effect on the volume, magnitude, timing, and frequency of floods. Determining the effects of land use on flooding is difficult for...

Household water insecurity after a historic flood: Diarrhea and dehydration in the Bolivian Amazon.

PubMed

Rosinger, Asher Y

2018-01-01

While 884 million people worldwide lack access to clean water, millions live in flood-prone regions. Unexpected flooding increases risk of diarrheal diseases and is expected to occur with increased frequency in the 21st century. Water insecurity is linked to mental distress in water scarce regions, yet this construct has not been examined closely among populations living in flood-prone regions. This paper examines how differences in water sources and lifestyle among Tsimane' forager-horticulturalists in lowland Bolivia are related to water insecurity after a historic flood in 2014, and in turn, how water insecurity is associated with diarrhea and dehydration. Pre-flood data come from qualitative interviews with 36 household heads, anthropometrics, participant observation, and water quality analysis between September 2013-January 2014 used to create a locally-adapted water insecurity questionnaire. Water insecurity was measured after the historic flood; no pre-flood water insecurity measures are available. Post-flood data were collected through surveys, water quality analysis, and health exams using near-exhaustive sampling in two villages, yielding 118 adults and 115 children (aged 2-12 years) in 62 households between March-April 2014. Overall, 89% of adults reported medium or high water insecurity. Only hand-pumps tested negative for pathogenic bacteria both pre- and post-flood. Tobit regressions suggest that hand-pumps (when available) and adult age were associated with lower water insecurity scores. Multiple logistic regressions suggest that adults with high water insecurity were more likely to report diarrhea than adults with low (Odds Ratio [OR] 9.2; 95% CI: 1.27-67.1). Children from households with medium (OR: 6.8; 95% CI: 1.41-32.5) or high (OR: 14.0; 95% CI: 2.40-81.5) water insecurity had significantly higher odds of dehydration than children in households with low water insecurity. Catastrophic flooding may systematically increase dimensions of household water insecurity. This research suggests an experience-based measure of water insecurity is associated with objective health outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of late Holocene climatic variability and land use change on the flood hydrology of the Guadalentín River, southeast Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benito, G.; Rico, M.; Sánchez-Moya, Y.; Sopeña, A.; Thorndycraft, V. R.; Barriendos, M.

2010-02-01

The Guadalentín River, located in southeast Spain, is considered one of the most torrential rivers in Spain, as indicated by catastrophic events such as the 1879 flood that caused 777 fatalities in the Murcia region. In this paper, flood frequency and magnitude of the upper Guadalentín River were reconstructed using geomorphological evidence, combined with one-dimensional hydraulic modelling and supported by records from documentary sources at Lorca in the lower Guadalentín catchment. Palaeoflood studies were conducted along a 2.5-km reach located at the confluence of the Rambla Mayor (162 km 2) and Caramel River (210 km 2). These tributaries join at the entrance of a narrow bedrock canyon, carved in Cretaceous limestone, which is 15-30 m wide and 40 m deep. Six stratigraphic profiles were described, the thickest and most complete corresponding to flood benches deposited upstream of the canyon constriction. The stratigraphic and documentary records identify five main phases of increased flood frequency. Phase 1, based on sedimentary palaeoflood evidence alone, occurred at c. AD 950-1200 with at least ten floods with minimum discharge estimates of 15-580 m 3 s - 1 . Phases 2-5, identified through combined sedimentary and documentary evidence occurred at: (a) AD 1648-1672, with eight documentary floods and two palaeofloods exceeding 580-680 m 3 s - 1 (most probably the AD 1651 and 1653 events); (b) AD 1769-1802, comprising seven documentary floods, of which at least two events (> 250 m 3 s - 1 ) are preserved in the sedimentary record; (c) AD 1830-1840, with four documentary floods, and at least two events recorded in the stratigraphy (760-1035 m 3 s - 1 ); and finally (d) the AD 1877-1900 period that witnessed seven documentary floods, with three palaeofloods exceeding 880 m 3 s - 1 . The palaeoflood and historical flood information indicate an anomalous increase in the frequency of large magnitude floods between AD 1830 and 1900, which can be attributed to climatic variability accentuated by intensive deforestation and land use practices during the first decades of the nineteenth century.

Actionable Science for Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding to Help Avoid Maladaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchanan, M. K.

2017-12-01

Rising sea levels increase the frequency of flooding at all levels, from nuisance to extreme, along coastlines across the world. Although recent flooding has increased the saliency of sea level rise (SLR) and the risks it presents to governments and communities, the effect of SLR on coastal hazards is complex and filled with uncertainty that is often uncomfortable for decision-makers. Although it is certain that SLR is occurring and will continue, its rate remains ambiguous. Because extreme flooding is by definition rare, there is also uncertainty in the effect of natural variability on flood frequency. These uncertainties pose methodological obstacles for integrating SLR into flood hazard projections and risk management. A major challenge is how to distill this complexity into information geared towards public sectors to help inform adaptation decision-making. Because policy windows are limited, budgets are tight, and decisions may have long-term consequences, it is especially important that this information accounts for uncertainty to help avoid damage and maladaptation. The U.S. Global Research Program, and others, describe this type of science—data and tools that help decision-makers plan for climate change impacts—as actionable [1]. We produce actionable science to support decision-making for adaptation to coastal impacts, despite uncertainty in projections of SLR and flood frequency. We found that SLR will boost the occurrence of minor rather than severe flooding in some regions of the U.S., while in other regions the reverse is true. For many cities, the current ten-year flood level will become a regular occurrence as the century progresses and by 2100 will occur every few days for some cities. This creates a mismatch with current planning in some cases. For example, a costly storm surge barrier may be built to protect parts of New York City from extreme flood levels but these are not often used because they are expensive to operate and obstructive to navigation and ecological systems. The current 10-yr flood will become a nuisance flood in the future and large episodic protection may not be especially helpful. [1] Beier, Paul, et al. "A How-to Guide for Coproduction of Actionable Science." Conservation Letters (2016).

Robust Adaptation? Assessing the sensitivity of safety margins in flood defences to uncertainty in future simulations - a case study from Ireland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Conor; Bastola, Satish; Sweeney, John

2013-04-01

Climate change impact and adaptation assessments have traditionally adopted a 'top-down' scenario based approach, where information from different Global Climate Models (GCMs) and emission scenarios are employed to develop impacts led adaptation strategies. Due to the tradeoffs in the computational cost and need to include a wide range of GCMs for fuller characterization of uncertainties, scenarios are better used for sensitivity testing and adaptation options appraisal. One common approach to adaptation that has been defined as robust is the use of safety margins. In this work the sensitivity of safety margins that have been adopted by the agency responsible for flood risk management in Ireland, to the uncertainty in future projections are examined. The sensitivity of fluvial flood risk to climate change is assessed for four Irish catchments using a large number of GCMs (17) forced with three emissions scenarios (SRES A1B, A2, B1) as input to four hydrological models. Both uncertainty within and between hydrological models is assessed using the GLUE framework. Regionalisation is achieved using a change factor method to infer changes in the parameters of a weather generator using monthly output from the GCMs, while flood frequency analysis is conducted using the method of probability weighted moments to fit the Generalised Extreme Value distribution to ~20,000 annual maxima series. The sensitivity of design margins to the uncertainty space considered is visualised using risk response surfaces. The hydrological sensitivity is measured as the percentage change in flood peak for specified recurrence intervals. Results indicate that there is a considerable residual risk associated with allowances of +20% when uncertainties are accounted for and that the risk of exceedence of design allowances is greatest for more extreme, low frequency events with considerable implication for critical infrastructure, e.g., culverts, bridges, flood defences whose designs are normally associated with such return periods. Sensitivity results show that the impact of climate change is not as great for flood peaks with higher return periods. The average width of the uncertainty range and the size of the range for each catchment reveals that the uncertainties in low frequency events are greater than high frequency events. In addition, the uncertainty interval, estimated as the average width of the uncertainty range of flow for the five return periods, grows wider with a decrease in the runoff coefficient and wetness index of each catchment, both of which tend to increase the nonlinearity in the rainfall response. A key management question that emerges is the acceptability of residual risk where high exposure of vulnerable populations and/or critical infrastructure coincide with high costs of additional capacity in safety margins.

The Effect of Disaster on the Health and Well-Being of Older Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

International Journal of Aging and Human Development, 1986

1986-01-01

Compared post-disaster health status and well-being of 122 elderly female victims of major flood with status of 45 controls. Significant differences were found in self-perceptions, including state of mind after the flood and frequency of thinking about the flood matters. (Author/NRB)

User's Manual for Program PeakFQ, Annual Flood-Frequency Analysis Using Bulletin 17B Guidelines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Kathleen M.; Kirby, William H.; Hummel, Paul R.

2006-01-01

Estimates of flood flows having given recurrence intervals or probabilities of exceedance are needed for design of hydraulic structures and floodplain management. Program PeakFQ provides estimates of instantaneous annual-maximum peak flows having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (annual-exceedance probabilities of 0.50, 0.20, 0.10, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002, respectively). As implemented in program PeakFQ, the Pearson Type III frequency distribution is fit to the logarithms of instantaneous annual peak flows following Bulletin 17B guidelines of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. The parameters of the Pearson Type III frequency curve are estimated by the logarithmic sample moments (mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of skewness), with adjustments for low outliers, high outliers, historic peaks, and generalized skew. This documentation provides an overview of the computational procedures in program PeakFQ, provides a description of the program menus, and provides an example of the output from the program.

Flood characteristics of Oklahoma streams techniques for calculating magnitude and frequency of floods in Oklahoma, with compilations of flood data through 1971

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.

1974-01-01

The 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence interval floods are related to basin and climatic parameters for natural streams in Oklahoma by multiple regression techniques through the mathematical model, Qx=aAbScPd,where Qx is peak discharge for recurrence interval x, A is contributing drainage area, S is main channel slope, P is mean annual precipitation, and a, b, c, and d are regression constants and coefficients. One equation for each recurrence interval applies statewide for all natural streams of less than 2,500 mil (6,500 km2), except where manmade works, such as dams, flood-detention structures, levees, channelization, and urban development, appreciably affect flood runoff. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency of a stream at an ungaged site if drainage area size, main channel slope, and mean annual precipitation are known. At or near gaged sites, a weighted average of the regression results and the gaging station data is recommended.Individual relations of flood magnitude to contributing drainage area are given for all or parts of the main stems of the Arkansas, Salt Fork Arkansas, Cimarron, North Canadian, Canadian, Washita, North Fork Red, and Red Rivers. Parts of some of these streams, and all of the Neosho and Verdigris Rivers are not included because the effects of. major regulation from large reservoirs cannot be evaluated within the scope of the report. Graphical relations of maximum floods of record for eastern and western Oklahoma provide a guide to maximum probable floods. A random sampling of the seasonal occurrence of floods indicated about two-thirds of all annual floods in Oklahoma occur during. April through July. Less than one-half of one percent of annual floods occur in December. A compilation of flood records at all gaging sites in Oklahoma and some selected sites in adjacent States is given in an appendix. Basin and climatic parameters and log-Pearson Type III frequency data and statistics are given for most station records. A second appendix gives a reprint of the U.S. Water Resources Council Bulletin 15 which describes procedures for fitting a log-Pearson Type III distribution to gaging station data.

Nonstationarity of daily rainfall annual maxima in Puglia (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Totaro, Vincenzo; Gioia, Andrea; Iacobellis, Vito

2017-04-01

Extreme flood events occurring in the last decades, due to climatic conditions in rapid evolution and/or changes in land cover, has lead the scientific community to develop and improve probabilistic techniques in order to take into account these effects, as also requested by the EU Floods Directive 2007/60. In the recent literature are becoming more popular studies that investigate the nonstationarity of the variables usually treated in hydrology through the analysis of their trend behavior. In this context it is also useful to assess the impact that the climate and /or land cover modifications have on the performances of the probabilistic stationary models used to predict hydrological variables such as rainfall and flood peaks. Among several proposed approaches, we use the redefined concept of return period and risk by considering the variability over time of the position parameter of the GEV distribution, with the subsequent discussion about the implications of analytical and technical characters. The analysis was carried out on the time series of annual maximum of daily precipitation available for a broad number of rainfall gauged stations in Puglia (Southern Italy). The investigation, conducted at the regional scale, leads to the identification of areas with different significativity of the statistical tests usually performed in order to assess nonstationarity. The evaluated change of return period leads to considerations useful to redesign methods for regional analysis of flood frequency.

Evaluating the cascading impacts of sea level rise and coastal flooding on emergency response spatial accessibility in Lower Manhattan, New York City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jie; Yu, Dapeng; Lin, Ning; Wilby, Robert L.

2017-12-01

This paper describes a scenario-based approach for evaluating the cascading impacts of sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding on emergency responses. The analysis is applied to Lower Manhattan, New York City, considering FEMA's 100- and 500-year flood scenarios and New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2)'s high-end SLR projections for the 2050s and 2080s, using the current situation as the baseline scenario. Service areas for different response timeframes (3-, 5- and 8-min) and various traffic conditions are simulated for three major emergency responders (i.e. New York Police Department (NYPD), Fire Department, New York (FDNY) and Emergency Medical Service (EMS)) under normal and flood scenarios. The modelling suggests that coastal flooding together with SLR could result in proportionate but non-linear impacts on emergency services at the city scale, and the performance of operational responses is largely determined by the positioning of emergency facilities and the functioning of traffic networks. Overall, emergency service accessibility to the city is primarily determined by traffic flow speed. However, the situation is expected to be further aggravated during coastal flooding, with is set to increase in frequency and magnitude due to SLR.

Estimated flood peak discharges on Twin, Brock, and Lightning creeks, Southwest Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, May 8, 1993

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tortorelli, R.L.

1996-01-01

The flash flood in southwestern Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, May 8, 1993, was the result of an intense 3-hour rainfall on saturated ground or impervious surfaces. The total precipitation of 5.28 inches was close to the 3-hour, 100-year frequency and produced extensive flooding. The most serious flooding was on Twin, Brock, and Lightning Creeks. Four people died in this flood. Over 1,900 structures were damaged along the 3 creeks. There were about $3 million in damages to Oklahoma City public facilities, the majority of which were in the three basins. A study was conducted to determine the magnitude of the May 8, 1993, flood peak discharge in these three creeks in southwestern Oklahoma City and compare these peaks with published flood estimates. Flood peak-discharge estimates for these creeks were determined at 11 study sites using a step-backwater analysis to match the flood water-surface profiles defined by high-water marks. The unit discharges during peak runoff ranged from 881 cubic feet per second per square mile for Lightning Creek at SW 44th Street to 3,570 cubic feet per second per square mile for Brock Creek at SW 59th Street. The ratios of the 1993 flood peak discharges to the Federal Emergency Management Agency 100-year flood peak discharges ranged from 1.25 to 3.29. The water-surface elevations ranged from 0.2 foot to 5.9 feet above the Federal Emergency Management Agency 500-year flood water-surface elevations. The very large flood peaks in these 3 small urban basins were the result of very intense rainfall in a short period of time, close to 100 percent runoff due to ground surfaces being essentially impervious, and the city streets acting as efficient conveyances to the main channels. The unit discharges compare in magnitude to other extraordinary Oklahoma urban floods.

Data for floods of May 1978 in northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Carlson, D.D.; Craig, G.S.; Hull, J.A.

1978-01-01

Severe flooding in northeastern Wyoming and southeastern Montana in May 1978 is described by tables of data, graphs, and photographs. Flood peaks were determined at 162 sites in the flooded area. At most of the sites, peak discharges were determined from existing stage-discharge relationship curves, and at 30 of the sites indirect flow measurements were made. At 19 sites, the May 1978 peak discharge exceeded the previous peak of record and also exceeded the computed 100-year frequency flood. (Woodard-USGS)

Are flood occurrences in Europe linked to specific atmospheric circulation types?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Genevier, M.

2009-04-01

Flood damages are amongst the most costly climate-related hazard damages, with annual average flood damage in Europe in the last few decades of around €4bn per year (Barredo, 2007). With such economic and sometimes human losses, it is important to improve our estimations of flood risk for time scales from a few months (for increased preparedness) and to several decades (necessary to establish long-term flood management strategies). This paper investigates links between the occurrence of flood events and the atmospheric circulation patterns that have prevailed in the days leading to the flood. With the recent advances in climate modelling, such links could be exploited to anticipate the extent of potential damages due to flood using seasonal atmospheric forecasts products or future climate projections. The research is undertaken at a pan-European scale and exploits latest research in automatic classification techniques developed within the EU research network COST733 Action. Daily flow data from over 450 sites were used, available from the Global Runoff Data Centre, the European Water Archive, the UK National River Flow Archive and the French Banque Hydro. The atmospheric circulation types were defined following the Objective GrossWetterLagen classification (OGWL) developed by (James, 2007) using the ERA-40 mslp re-analysis, similar to the Hess-Brezowsky subjective classification (Hess and Brezowsky, 1977). Flood events were here defined according to the peak-over-threshold method, selecting the highest independent peaks observed in streamflow time series. The association between flood and atmospheric circulation types is assessed using two indicators. The first indicator calculates the difference between the frequency of occurrence of a circulation type CTi during a flood event to that for any day, expressed in percent. The significance of the anomaly is assessed using the χ2 statistics. The second indicator measures the probability of finding at last k days of N* of CTi using historical frequencies of occurrence. N* represents the number of days preceding a flood when the atmospheric conditions could significantly influence flood production processes, and could be interpreted as an upper limit of the concentration time of the basin. This evaluates the persistence of an atmospheric circulation type CTi prior to a flood event, and the associated level of significance. The indicators are calculated at-site and discussed regionally. Results show significant links with two circulation types related to Cyclonic Westerly (Wz) and the Low over the British Isles (TB), while the anticyclonic north-westerly type (Nea) systematically doesn't occur before any flood event. References Barredo, J.I., 2007. Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950-2005. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 42 doi: 10.1007/s11069-006-9065-2: 125-148. Hess, P. and Brezowsky, H., 1977. Katalog der Grobwetterlagen Europas 1881-1976. 3 verbesserte und ergäntze Auflage. Ber Dt. Wetterd. 15 (113). James, P.M., 2007. An objective classification method for Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen over Europe. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 88(1): 17-42.

Interaction between Floods Occurrence and Gender and Age Structure of Population in Belarus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partasenok, Irina; Kvach, Alena

2017-04-01

The high spring snow-melting or rainfall flooding is the most important and actual event in hydrological cycle for the territory of Belarus. It caused an inundation that means exceeding of water level in the river above safe line and water floods to the adjacent territories. Inundations led to significant destruction of adjoining territories, huge financial damage and threat for human being. The frequencies of spring flooding in Belarus is defined by intensity of river network, its morphometric characteristics and hydrometeorological conditions during the season before floods. The aim of the present study is to estimate the spatial distribution of flood inundation frequency and gender and age structure of national population which might be suffer under extreme phenomena on the rivers. We analysed dangerous thresholds in the river water levels and the frequency of floods of various severity within different river basins, quantity of men and women and their ratio, the quantity of people in the age upper 70 years old as a most sensitive to the flood risk group of population and ratio of rural houses to the entire housing resources as a most vulnerable infrastructure in the different regions of the country. During floods the dangerous levels which cause the inundation have been recorded in the 4 largest river basins passes the territory of Belarus. The most frequent inundations (every two years) occur in the south of the country in the Prypyat` river basin, and in the Dnepr river basin (every 4-5 years) on the majority of the rivers. The hypothesis of our study is that quantity of women population is higher in the flood risk regions (we defined 30 regions with highly frequent inundations) and their ratio high with the age. The majority of them live in potential flood dangerous regions. The strong connections between size of the river basin, its potential flood risk and quantity of population in the region was established. The ratio of men and women over country varied within 6-7 %. But in the flood risk regions (mentioned above) the quantity of women rapidly increase up to 7-18%. And the largest ratio (15-18%) have been obtained for the regions with highest floods inundation frequency (low stream of the Dnepr, Berezina, Sozh and Neman rivers). The most sensitive group of population to flood risk is rural population who live in private houses in the large river valleys. And their average number for entire territory of Belarus lies within 37-47%. Another point of potential risk group concerns people in the age of 70 years and elder. According to the last census of enumeration the ratio of elderly people equal 11-12%. These people are the most open to injury from extreme phenomena on the rivers. In general, 772 thousands (8% of national population) women lives in the flood risk regions, almost 80 thousand among them are women elder 70 years who need extra care in the period of flood occurrence. This must be considered by stakeholders in support of making design in social policy of the country.

Determination of the 100-year flood plain on Upper Three Runs and selected tributaries, and the Savannah River at the Savannah River site, South Carolina, 1995

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lanier, T.H.

1996-01-01

The 100-year flood plain was determined for Upper Three Runs, its tributaries, and the part of the Savannah River that borders the Savannah River Site. The results are provided in tabular and graphical formats. The 100-year flood-plain maps and flood profiles provide water-resource managers of the Savannah River Site with a technical basis for making flood-plain management decisions that could minimize future flood problems and provide a basis for designing and constructing drainage structures along roadways. A hydrologic analysis was made to estimate the 100-year recurrence- interval flow for Upper Three Runs and its tributaries. The analysis showed that the well-drained, sandy soils in the head waters of Upper Three Runs reduce the high flows in the stream; therefore, the South Carolina upper Coastal Plain regional-rural-regression equation does not apply for Upper Three Runs. Conse- quently, a relation was established for 100-year recurrence-interval flow and drainage area using streamflow data from U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations on Upper Three Runs. This relation was used to compute 100-year recurrence-interval flows at selected points along the stream. The regional regression equations were applicable for the tributaries to Upper Three Runs, because the soil types in the drainage basins of the tributaries resemble those normally occurring in upper Coastal Plain basins. This was verified by analysis of the flood-frequency data collected from U.S. Geological Survey gaging station 02197342 on Fourmile Branch. Cross sections were surveyed throughout each reach, and other pertinent data such as flow resistance and land-use were col- lected. The surveyed cross sections and computed 100-year recurrence-interval flows were used in a step-backwater model to compute the 100-year flood profile for Upper Three Runs and its tributaries. The profiles were used to delineate the 100-year flood plain on topographic maps. The Savannah River forms the southwestern border of the Savannah River Site. Data from previously published reports were used to delineate the 100-year flood plain for the Savannah River from the downstream site boundary at the mouth of Lower Three Runs at river mile 125 to the upstream site boundary at river mile 163.

Groundwater controls on river channel pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bätz, Nico; Colombini, Pauline; Cherubini, Paolo; Lane, Stuart N.

2017-04-01

Braided rivers are characterized by high rates of morphological change. However, despite the potential for frequent disturbance, vegetated patches may develop within this system and influence long-term channel dynamics and channel patterns through the "engineering effects" of vegetation. The stabilizing effect of developing vegetation on morphological change has been widely shown by flume experiments and (historic) aerial pictures analysis. Thus, there is a balance between disturbance and stabilization, mediated through vegetation, that may determine the long-term geomorphic and biogeomorphic evolution of the river. It follows that with a change in disturbance frequency relative to the rate of vegetation establishment, a systematic geomorphological shift could occur. Research has addressed how changes in disturbance frequency affect river channel pattern, but has rarely addressed the way in which the stabilizing effects of biogeomorphic succession interact with disturbance frequency to maintain a river in a more dynamic or a less dynamic state. Here, we quantify how the interplay between groundwater access, disturbance frequency and vegetation succession, drive changes in channel pattern. We studied this complex interplay on a transitional gravel-bed river system (braided, wandering, meandering) close to Geneva (Switzerland) - the Allondon River. Dendroecological analysis demonstrate that vegetation growth is driven by groundwater access. Groundwater access conditions the rate of vegetation stabilization at the sub-reach scale and, due to a reduction in flood-related disturbance frequency over the last 50 years, drives a change in channel pattern. Where groundwater is shallower, vegetation encroachment rates were high and as flood-related disturbance decreased, the river has shifted towards a meandering state. Where groundwater was deeper, vegetation growth was limited by water-access and thus vegetation encroachment rates were low. Even though there was a reduction in flood disturbance, it was still sufficient to maintain a wandering/braided state. Thus, it appears that access to groundwater can control river channel pattern through its impact upon the "engineering effects" of vegetation. The results are important for river management as they highlight the non-linearity of developing vegetation in dynamic alluvial floodplains and the importance of considering the wider environmental setting and associated feedbacks between biotic and abiotic river components in defining long-term geomorphological river response.

Floods, floodplains, delta plains — A satellite imaging approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syvitski, James P. M.; Overeem, Irina; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Hannon, Mark

2012-08-01

Thirty-three lowland floodplains and their associated delta plains are characterized with data from three remote sensing systems (AMSR-E, SRTM and MODIS). These data provide new quantitative information to characterize Late Quaternary floodplain landscapes and their penchant for flooding over the last decade. Daily proxy records for discharge since 2002 and for each of the 33 river systems can be derived with novel Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) methods. A descriptive framework based on analysis of Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data is used to capture the major landscape-scale floodplain elements or zones: 1) container valleys with their long and narrow pathways of largely sediment transit and bypass, 2) floodplain depressions that act as loci for frequent flooding and sediment storage, 3) zones of nodal avulsions common to many continental scale rivers, and often located seaward of container valleys, and 4) coastal floodplains and delta plains that offer both sediment bypass and storage but under the influence of marine processes. The SRTM data allow mapping of smaller-scale architectural elements in unprecedented systematic manner. Floodplain depressions were found to play a major role, which may largely be overlooked in conceptual floodplain models. Lastly, MODIS data (independently and combined with AMSR-E) allows the tracking of flood hydrographs and pathways and sedimentation patterns on a near-daily timescale worldwide. These remote-sensing data show that 85% of the studied major river systems experienced extensive flooding in the last decade. A new quantitative paradigm of floodplain processes, honoring the frequency and extent of floods, can be develop by careful analysis of these new remotely sensed data.

Mapping the Historical Probability of Increased Flood Hazard During ENSO Events Using a New 20th Century River Flow Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerton, R.; Cloke, H. L.; Stephens, L.; Woolnough, S. J.; Zsoter, E.; Pappenberger, F.

2016-12-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a mode of variability which sees fluctuations between anomalously high or low sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, is known to influence river flow and flooding at the global scale. The anticipation and forecasting of floods is crucial for flood preparedness, and this link, alongside the predictive skill of ENSO up to seasons ahead, may provide an early indication of upcoming severe flood events. Information is readily available indicating the likely impacts of El Niño and La Niña on precipitation across the globe, which is often used as a proxy for flood hazard. However, the nonlinearity between precipitation and flood magnitude and frequency means that it is important to assess the impact of ENSO events not only on precipitation, but also on river flow and flooding. Historical probabilities provide key information regarding the likely impacts of ENSO events. We estimate, for the first time, the historical probability of increased flood hazard during El Niño and La Niña through a global hydrological analysis, using a new 20thCentury ensemble river flow reanalysis for the global river network. This dataset was produced by running the ECMWF ERA-20CM atmospheric reanalysis through a research set-up of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) using the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model, to produce a 110-year global reanalysis of river flow. We further evaluate the added benefit of the hydrological analysis over the use of precipitation as a proxy for flood hazard. For example, providing information regarding regions that are likely to experience a lagged influence on river flow compared to the influence on precipitation. Our results map, at the global scale, the probability of abnormally high river flow during any given month during an El Niño or La Niña; information such as this is key for organisations that work at the global scale, such as humanitarian aid organisations, providing a seasons-ahead indicator of potential increased flood hazard that can be used as soon as the event onset is declared, or even earlier, when El Niño or La Niña conditions are first predicted.

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods for streams in west-central Florida, 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hammett, Kathleen M.; DelCharco, Michael J.

2005-01-01

Flood discharges were estimated for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years for 94 streamflow stations in west-central Florida. Most of the stations are located within the 10,000 square-mile, 16-county area that forms the Southwest Florida Water Management District. All stations had at least 10 years of homogeneous record, and none have flood discharges that are significantly affected by regulation or urbanization. Guidelines established by the U.S. Water Resources Council in Bulletin 17B were used to estimate flood discharges from gaging station records. Multiple linear regression analysis was then used to mathematically relate estimates of flood discharge for selected recurrence intervals to explanatory basin characteristics. Contributing drainage area, channel slope, and the percent of total drainage area covered by lakes (percent lake area) were the basin characteristics that provided the best regression estimates. The study area was subdivided into four geographic regions to further refine the regression equations. Region 1 at the northern end of the study area includes large rivers that are characteristic of the rolling karst terrain of northern Florida. Only a small part of Region 1 lies within the boundaries of the Southwest Florida Water Management District. Contributing drainage area and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics in Region 1; the prediction error of the regression equations varied with the recurrence interval and ranged from 57 to 69 percent. In the three other regions of the study area, contributing drainage area, channel slope, and percent lake area were the most statistically significant basin characteristics, and are the three characteristics that can be used to best estimate the magnitude and frequency of floods on most streams within the Southwest Florida Water Management District. The Withlacoochee River Basin dominates Region 2; the prediction error of the regression models in the region ranged from 65 to 68 percent. The basins that drain into the northern part of Tampa Bay and the upper reaches of the Peace River Basin are in Region 3, which had prediction errors ranging from 54 to 74 percent. Region 4, at the southern end of the study area, had prediction errors that ranged from 40 to 56 percent. Estimates of flood discharge become more accurate as longer periods of record are used for analyses; results of this study should be used in lieu of results from earlier U.S. Geological Survey studies of flood magnitude and frequency in west-central Florida. A comparison of current results with earlier studies indicates that use of a longer period of record with additional high-water events produces substantially higher flood-discharge estimates for many gaging stations. Another comparison indicates that the use of a computed, generalized skew in a previous study in 1979 tended to overestimate flood discharges.

Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

Flood risk changes in Northeastern part of Iberian Peninsula: from impact data to flow data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llasat, Maria-Carmen; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat; Marcos, Raül; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Turco, Marco

2014-05-01

The analysis of the temporal evolution of historical floods usually is based on proxy data obtained collecting flooding information from continuous records in municipal, ecclesiastic and private documentary sources. This kind of documentary series usually provide details of the damage caused by the flooding, with the exact date and duration, and in some occasions, some details on the behaviour of the rising water (duration, magnitude, indirect measurements), further details about the precipitation episode that gave rise to it, and the characteristics and dimensions of the riverbeds and the infrastructure associated with the watercourse (dams, bridges, mills, dykes). Based on this information, the first step is to estimate the flood impacts and, usually, in order to build flood data series, the event is classified following some criteria (i.e. catastrophic, extraordinary, ordinary). Exceptionally, some events are reconstructed and the maximum flow or level of the inundation is estimated. However, there are not so many studies that compare flow series and flood series obtained from proxy data. The interest of doing it is, not only to check the quality of the information and to compare the trend of both kind of series, but also to identify the role of other variables and their potential change in the flood risk evolution. Besides this, a potential relationship between the flood classification criteria and the flood frequency distribution obtained from flow data could be done. The contribution departs from the INUNGAMA database that contains 372 flood events recorded in Northeastern of Iberian Peninsula from 1900 to 2010 (Barnolas and Llasat, 2007; Llasat et al, 2013); the PRESSGAMA database that includes more than 15,000 news related to natural hazards and climate change published between 1981 and 2010 and with detailed information for each flood event (Llasat et al, 2009) and the historical flood database with data since the 14th century for the rivers Ter, Llobregat and Segre (Llasat et al, 2005). Daily flow data for the rivers Muga (1971-2013), Ter (1912-2013) and Llobregat (1912-2013) has also been obtained from the Catalan Water Agency. Precipitation and temperature daily data has been provided by Spain-02 (Herrera et al 2012) for the period 1950-2008. First of all, the quality of all the series has been checked and a consistency analysis between them has been done. The correlation between rainfall and flow series has been studied for some specific catchments. Then, trend analysis of different series has been made by applying the Mann-Kendall method and a resampling method (Turco and Llasat, 2011), in order to identify decadal changes. Finally, a flood event has been selected as case study to illustrate the different factors that can be involved. This contribution has been supported by the DRIHM project.

Two-station comparison of peak flows to improve flood-frequency estimates for seven streamflow-gaging stations in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins, Central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles

2003-01-01

Improved flood-frequency estimates for short-term (10 or fewer years of record) streamflow-gaging stations were needed to support instream flow studies by the U.S. Forest Service, which are focused on quantifying water rights necessary to maintain or restore productive fish habitat. Because peak-flow data for short-term gaging stations can be biased by having been collected during an unusually wet, dry, or otherwise unrepresentative period of record, the data may not represent the full range of potential floods at a site. To test whether peak-flow estimates for short-term gaging stations could be improved, the two-station comparison method was used to adjust the logarithmic mean and logarithmic standard deviation of peak flows for seven short-term gaging stations in the Salmon and Clearwater River Basins, central Idaho. Correlation coefficients determined from regression of peak flows for paired short-term and long-term (more than 10 years of record) gaging stations over a concurrent period of record indicated that the mean and standard deviation of peak flows for all short-term gaging stations would be improved. Flood-frequency estimates for seven short-term gaging stations were determined using the adjusted mean and standard deviation. The original (unadjusted) flood-frequency estimates for three of the seven short-term gaging stations differed from the adjusted estimates by less than 10 percent, probably because the data were collected during periods representing the full range of peak flows. Unadjusted flood-frequency estimates for four short-term gaging stations differed from the adjusted estimates by more than 10 percent; unadjusted estimates for Little Slate Creek and Salmon River near Obsidian differed from adjusted estimates by nearly 30 percent. These large differences probably are attributable to unrepresentative periods of peak-flow data collection.

Flood Prediction for the Tam Nong District in Mekong Delta Using Hydrological Modelling and Hydrologic Remote Sensing Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kappas, Martin; Nguyen Hong, Quang; Thanh, Nga Pham Thi; Thu, Hang Le Thi; Nguyen Vu, Giang; Degener, Jan; Rafiei Emam, Ammar

2017-04-01

There has been an increasing attention to the large trans-boundary Mekong river basin due to various problems related to water management and flood control, for instance. Vietnam Mekong delta is located at the downstream of the river basin where is affected most by this human-induced reduction in flows from the upstream. On the other hand, the flood plain of nine anastomosing channels is increasingly effected by the seawater intrusion due to sea level rising of climate change. This results in negative impacts of salinization, drought, and floods, while formerly flooding had frequently brought positive natural gain of irrigation water and alluvial aggradation. In this research, our aim is to predict flooding for the better water management adaptation and control. We applied the model HEC-SSP 2.1 to analyze flood flow frequency, two-dimensional unsteady flow calculations in HEC-RAS 5.0 for simulating a floodplain inundation. Remote sensing-based water level (Jason-2) and inundation map were used for validation and comparison with the model simulations. The results revealed a reduction of water level at all the monitoring stations, particularly in the last decade. In addition, a trend of the inundation extension gradually declined, but in some periods it remained severe due to water release from upstream reservoirs during the rainy season (October-November). We found an acceptable agreement between the HEC-RAS and remote sensing flooding maps (around 70%). Based on the flood routine analysis, we could conclude that the water level will continue lower and lead to a trend of drought and salinization harsher in the near future. Keywords: Mekong delta, flood control, inundation, water management, hydrological modelling, remote sensing

Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude with a warming climate. These changes are likely to increase flooding damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections from 2...

Flood type specific construction of synthetic design hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Manuela I.; Viviroli, Daniel; Sikorska, Anna E.; Vannier, Olivier; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Seibert, Jan

2017-02-01

Accurate estimates of flood peaks, corresponding volumes, and hydrographs are required to design safe and cost-effective hydraulic structures. In this paper, we propose a statistical approach for the estimation of the design variables peak and volume by constructing synthetic design hydrographs for different flood types such as flash-floods, short-rain floods, long-rain floods, and rain-on-snow floods. Our approach relies on the fitting of probability density functions to observed flood hydrographs of a certain flood type and accounts for the dependence between peak discharge and flood volume. It makes use of the statistical information contained in the data and retains the process information of the flood type. The method was tested based on data from 39 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland and provides catchment specific and flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs for all of these catchments. We demonstrate that flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs are meaningful in flood-risk management when combined with knowledge on the seasonality and the frequency of different flood types.

Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

2017-11-01

Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods, including exceptionally large non-systematic events, were reasonably estimated with the proposed approach. In addition, by accounting for uncertainties in each modeling step, one is able to obtain a better understanding of the influential factors in large flood formation dynamics.

A physically based analytical model of flood frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basso, S.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

2016-09-01

Predicting magnitude and frequency of floods is a key issue in hydrology, with implications in many fields ranging from river science and geomorphology to the insurance industry. In this paper, a novel physically based approach is proposed to estimate the recurrence intervals of seasonal flow maxima. The method links the extremal distribution of streamflows to the stochastic dynamics of daily discharge, providing an analytical expression of the seasonal flood frequency curve. The parameters involved in the formulation embody climate and landscape attributes of the contributing catchment and can be estimated from daily rainfall and streamflow data. Only one parameter, which is linked to the antecedent wetness condition in the watershed, needs to be calibrated on the observed maxima. The performance of the method is discussed through a set of applications in four rivers featuring heterogeneous daily flow regimes. The model provides reliable estimates of seasonal maximum flows in different climatic settings and is able to capture diverse shapes of flood frequency curves emerging in erratic and persistent flow regimes. The proposed method exploits experimental information on the full range of discharges experienced by rivers. As a consequence, model performances do not deteriorate when the magnitude of events with return times longer than the available sample size is estimated. The approach provides a framework for the prediction of floods based on short data series of rainfall and daily streamflows that may be especially valuable in data scarce regions of the world.

Techniques for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural basins of South Carolina, 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Tasker, Gary D.

2002-01-01

Data from 167 streamflow-gaging stations in or near South Carolina with 10 or more years of record through September 30, 1999, were used to develop two methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in South Carolina for rural ungaged basins that are not significantly affected by regulation. Flood frequency estimates for 54 gaged sites in South Carolina were computed by fitting the water-year peak flows for each site to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation of flood-frequency estimates for gaged sites, new values for generalized skew coefficients were developed. Flood-frequency analyses also were made for gaging stations that drain basins from more than one physiographic province. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Transportation, updated these data from previous flood-frequency reports to aid officials who are active in floodplain management as well as those who design bridges, culverts, and levees, or other structures near streams where flooding is likely to occur. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations that can be used to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flows for rural ungaged basins in the Blue Ridge, Piedmont, upper Coastal Plain, and lower Coastal Plain physiographic provinces of South Carolina. The predictive equations are all functions of drainage area. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations ranged from -16 to 19 percent for the 2-year recurrence-interval flow in the upper Coastal Plain to -34 to 52 percent for the 500-year recurrence interval flow in the lower Coastal Plain. A region-of-influence method also was developed that interactively estimates recurrence- interval flows for rural ungaged basins in the Blue Ridge of South Carolina. The region-of-influence method uses regression techniques to develop a unique relation between flow and basin characteristics for an individual watershed. This, then, can be used to estimate flows at ungaged sites. Because the computations required for this method are somewhat complex, a computer application was developed that performs the computations and compares the predictive errors for this method. The computer application includes the option of using the region-of-influence method, or the generalized least squares regression equations from this report to compute estimated flows and errors of prediction specific to each ungaged site. From a comparison of predictive errors using the region-of-influence method with those computed using the regional regression method, the region-of-influence method performed systematically better only in the Blue Ridge and is, therefore, not recommended for use in the other physiographic provinces. Peak-flow data for the South Carolina stations used in the regionalization study are provided in appendix A, which contains gaging station information, log-Pearson Type III statistics, information on stage-flow relations, and water-year peak stages and flows. For informational purposes, water-year peak-flow data for stations on regulated streams in South Carolina also are provided in appendix D. Other information pertaining to the regulated streams is provided in the text of the report.

Change in the Magnitude of River Flooding in the United States, 1965-2015

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This figure shows changes in the size and frequency of flooding events in rivers and streams in the United States between 1965 and 2015. Blue upward-pointing symbols show locations where floods have become larger; brown downward-pointing symbols show locations where floods have become smaller. Data were analyzed by Louise Slater and Gabriele Villarini at the University of Iowa. For more information: www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators

Analysis of Atmospheric Moisture Transport over the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minallah, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2017-12-01

The high-altitude region of the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH) ranges is susceptible to natural disasters due to their extreme topographic features and climatic conditions. The region, where large population resides in deep valleys and mountain foothills, is prone to riverine flooding, flash floods, and extreme precipitation events whose frequency is perceived to be increasing, often with attribution to climate change. It is thus imperative to study the causation using modern hydrometeorological products. In this study, we identify regions with documented trends in extreme flooding and precipitation and carry out a statistical analysis of the atmospheric moisture transport at the synoptic scale for these regions using ERA-Interim and NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis products. We focus on the two main sources for the atmospheric moisture in the region: the summer South-East Asian Monsoon and the winter Westerlies, and explore how variations in these systems affect the moisture convergence and divergence over the region. Our findings indicate that the Monsoon precipitation has been intensifying in the western Himalayas over the past decade and a half and that these changes are likely related to moisture advection into the region.

High-magnitude flooding across Britain since AD 1750

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macdonald, Neil; Sangster, Heather

2017-03-01

The last decade has witnessed severe flooding across much of the globe, but have these floods really been exceptional? Globally, relatively few instrumental river flow series extend beyond 50 years, with short records presenting significant challenges in determining flood risk from high-magnitude floods. A perceived increase in extreme floods in recent years has decreased public confidence in conventional flood risk estimates; the results affect society (insurance costs), individuals (personal vulnerability) and companies (e.g. water resource managers). Here, we show how historical records from Britain have improved understanding of high-magnitude floods, by examining past spatial and temporal variability. The findings identify that whilst recent floods are notable, several comparable periods of increased flooding are identifiable historically, with periods of greater frequency (flood-rich periods). Statistically significant relationships between the British flood index, the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index are identified. The use of historical records identifies that the largest floods often transcend single catchments affecting regions and that the current flood-rich period is not unprecedented.

Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Davies, Grace I.; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-01-01

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia. PMID:25546280

Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

PubMed

Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-12-23

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

Insect emergence in relation to floods in wet meadows and swamps in the River Dalälven floodplain.

PubMed

Vinnersten, T Z Persson; Östman, Ö; Schäfer, M L; Lundström, J O

2014-08-01

Annual variation in flood frequency and hydroperiod during the vegetation season has ecological impacts on the floodplain biota. Although many insect groups may have a lower emergence during a flood event, it is poorly known how annual emergence of insects in temporary wetlands is related to the variation in hydrology. Between May and September, we studied the weekly emergence of 18 insect taxa over six consecutive years, 2002-2007, in six temporary flooded wetlands (four wet meadows and two forest swamps) in the River Dalälven floodplains, Central Sweden. We used emergence traps to collect emerging insects from terrestrial and aquatic parts of wet meadows and swamp forests. In all wetlands, the insect fauna was numerically dominated by the orders Diptera, Hymenoptera, Coleoptera and Homoptera. On a weekly basis, 9 out of the 18 insect taxa had lower emergence in weeks with flood than in weeks with no flood, whereas no taxon had a higher emergence in weeks with flood. Over the seasons, we related insect emergence to seasonal flood frequency and length of hydroperiod. The emergence of most studied taxa decreased with increasing hydroperiod, which suggests that emergence after floods do not compensate for the reduced emergence during floods. Only Culicidae and the aquatic Chironomidae sub-families Tanypodinae and Chironominae showed an increase in emergence with increasing hydroperiod, whereas Staphylinidae peaked at intermediate hydroperiod. We conclude that a hydroperiod covering up to 40% of the vegetation season has a significant negative effect on the emergence of most taxa and that only a few taxa occurring in the temporary wetlands are actually favoured by a flood regime with recurrent and unpredictable floods.

Going with the flow: Hydrologic response of middle Lena River (Siberia) to the climate variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautier, Emmanuèle; Dépret, Thomas; Costard, François; Virmoux, Clément; Fedorov, Alexander; Grancher, Delphine; Konstantinov, Pavel; Brunstein, Daniel

2018-02-01

Recent observations indicate that over the last decades, climate change has increasingly influenced the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme climatic and hydrologic events. The main aim of this study is to determine the hydrologic response, especially the flood evolution, of the Lena River in Eastern Siberia to ongoing climate change. Draining the coldest region of the Northern Hemisphere, the Lena River is impacted by global warming, which is particularly pronounced in periglacial areas characterized by deep and continuous permafrost. We document the hydrologic variability of the Middle Lena River, first by characterizing trend and stationarity of monthly discharges. Second, we analyze on the basis of the peak over threshold method (POT) the temporal evolution of intensity and duration of three discharge classes: bar-full discharge, bank-full discharge and large floods. Finally, we also determined the dates of the flood beginning and of the flood peak. Data on mean monthly discharge and flood peaks are available since 1936 and daily discharges since 1954. Our results provide evidence for a net hydrologic change with an increase in the intensity and duration of floods in the two decades ending in 2012. The frequency of high floods is unprecedented, and small floods no longer occur. The tail of the temporal distribution of the flood peak is also changing. More frequent early floods are occurring in spring with secondary flood peaks in summer, the latest probably represents the most striking change. Furthermore, the changes have been accelerating since 2004. Finally, two islands were instrumented (2008-2012) in order to study the flooding dynamics with a better precision.

Hydro-geomorphologic disasters in Portugal: mortality trends in the past 150 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, Susana; Zêzere, José L.; Quaresma, Ivânia; Santos, Pedro P.; Santos, Mónica

2015-04-01

For the first time in Portugal, an extensive analysis of the mortality caused by hydro-geomorphological hazards was made, for a long period (1865-2010) using the DISASTER database (Zêzere et al., 2014). This database was built under the assumption that social consequences (including fatalities) of floods and landslides are relevant enough to be reported by newspapers, which were the source for data collection. This database counts 1902 hydro-geomorphologic cases that caused 1248 fatalities, 14 191 evacuated persons and 41 844 homeless persons. Floods correspond to the majority of cases (85.2%) that caused 1012 fatalities. Landslides correspond to 14.8 % of the total hydro-geomorphologic cases and caused 236 fatalities. The exploitation of the DISASTER database allowed: (i) to analyze the frequency and the temporal evolution of fatal floods and landslides; (ii) to analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of fatalities; (iii) to identify the most deadly flood and landslide types; and (iv) to evaluate the individual and societal risk. The obtained results demonstrate the absence of any exponential growth with time of hydro-geomorphologic cases and associated fatalities in Portugal. The highest flood and landslide cases as well as the associated mortality were registered in the period 1935-1969. After this period, flood and landslide mortality decreased, although landslide fatalities remained higher than the registered in the period 1865-1934. These features do not account the exceptional flash flood event occurred in the Lisbon region in November 1967. This outlier event was responsible for 522 fatalities, which corresponds to more than half of the total mortality generated by floods in Portugal in the complete time series (1865 - 2010). Moreover, the 1967 flash flood event was the deadliest natural disaster registered in Portugal after the Lisbon earthquake occurred in 1755, not accounting heat waves. Flood fatalities occurred widespread in the country, with an important cluster in the Lisbon Region and in the Tagus valley, Oporto and Coimbra cities, where simultaneously, natural conditions are favorable to floods and a high number of people are exposed to flood hazard (e.g. residential buildings and economic activities installed in floodplains). The occurrence of landslide fatalities is mostly constrained in the north of the Tagus valley, where geologic and geomorphologic conditions are more landslide-prone than in the southern part of the country. Flash floods caused the majority of fatalities associated with floods, while falls and flows were responsible for the highest frequency of fatalities associated with landslides. The temporal evolution of flood fatalities reflects the implementation of territorial management policies and the improving of early warning systems for floods and the evacuation of people living in floodplain areas prior major flood events, in Portugal in the latest four decades. In the case of landslides, despite the improving in the quality of buildings construction, fatalities generated by landslides are still frequent because buildings are often located in hazardous slopes. In addition, so far no early warning system for landslide was implemented in Portugal. This research was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT). The first author is a Post-Doc fellow funded by FCT (SFRH/BPD/69002/2010).

Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, Cameron; Gutmann, Ethan; Jones, Russell; Rissing, Matthew; Mizukami, Naoki; Lorie, Mark; Mahoney, Hardee; Wood, Andrew W.; Mills, David; Martinich, Jeremy

2017-12-01

A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

Modeling tools for the assessment of microbiological risks during floods: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collender, Philip; Yang, Wen; Stieglitz, Marc; Remais, Justin

2015-04-01

Floods are a major, recurring source of harm to global economies and public health. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events under future climate change, coupled with continued urbanization in areas with high risk of floods, may exacerbate future impacts of flooding. Improved flood risk management is essential to support global development, poverty reduction and public health, and is likely to be a crucial aspect of climate change adaptation. Importantly, floods can facilitate the transmission of waterborne pathogens by changing social conditions (overcrowding among displaced populations, interruption of public health services), imposing physical challenges to infrastructure (sewerage overflow, reduced capacity to treat drinking water), and altering fate and transport of pathogens (transport into waterways from overland flow, resuspension of settled contaminants) during and after flood conditions. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models are capable of generating quantitative characterizations of microbiological risks associated with flooding, while accounting for these diverse and at times competing physical and biological processes. Despite a few applications of such models to the quantification of microbiological risks associated with floods, there exists limited guidance as to the relative capabilities, and limitations, of existing modeling platforms when used for this purpose. Here, we review 17 commonly used flood and water quality modeling tools that have demonstrated or implicit capabilities of mechanistically representing and quantifying microbial risk during flood conditions. We compare models with respect to their capabilities of generating outputs that describe physical and microbial conditions during floods, such as concentration or load of non-cohesive sediments or pathogens, and the dynamics of high flow conditions. Recommendations are presented for the application of specific modeling tools for assessing particular flood-related microbial risks, and model improvements are suggested that may better characterize key microbial risks during flood events. The state of current tools are assessed in the context of a changing climate where the frequency, intensity and duration of flooding are shifting in some areas.

Study on reservoir time-varying design flood of inflow based on Poisson process with time-dependent parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiqing; Huang, Jing; Li, Jianchang

2018-06-01

The time-varying design flood can make full use of the measured data, which can provide the reservoir with the basis of both flood control and operation scheduling. This paper adopts peak over threshold method for flood sampling in unit periods and Poisson process with time-dependent parameters model for simulation of reservoirs time-varying design flood. Considering the relationship between the model parameters and hypothesis, this paper presents the over-threshold intensity, the fitting degree of Poisson distribution and the design flood parameters are the time-varying design flood unit period and threshold discriminant basis, deduced Longyangxia reservoir time-varying design flood process at 9 kinds of design frequencies. The time-varying design flood of inflow is closer to the reservoir actual inflow conditions, which can be used to adjust the operating water level in flood season and make plans for resource utilization of flood in the basin.

Assessment of the spatial scaling behaviour of floods in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria

2017-04-01

Floods are among the most dangerous natural hazards, causing loss of life and significant damage to private and public property. Regional flood-frequency analysis (FFA) methods are essential tools to assess the flood hazard and plan interventions for its mitigation. FFA methods are often based on the well-known index flood method that assumes the invariance of the coefficient of variation of floods with drainage area. This assumption is equivalent to the simple scaling or self-similarity assumption for peak floods, i.e. their spatial structure remains similar in a particular, relatively simple, way to itself over a range of scales. Spatial scaling of floods has been evaluated at national scale for different countries such as Canada, USA, and Australia. According our knowledge. Such a study has not been conducted for the United Kingdom even though the standard FFA method there is based on the index flood assumption. In this work we present an integrated approach to assess of the spatial scaling behaviour of floods in the United Kingdom using three different methods: product moments (PM), probability weighted moments (PWM), and quantile analysis (QA). We analyse both instantaneous and daily annual observed maximum floods and performed our analysis both across the entire country and in its sub-climatic regions as defined in the Flood Studies Report (NERC, 1975). To evaluate the relationship between the k-th moments or quantiles and the drainage area we used both regression with area alone and multiple regression considering other explanatory variables to account for the geomorphology, amount of rainfall, and soil type of the catchments. The latter multiple regression approach was only recently demonstrated being more robust than the traditional regression with area alone that can lead to biased estimates of scaling exponents and misinterpretation of spatial scaling behaviour. We tested our framework on almost 600 rural catchments in UK considered as entire region and split in 11 sub-regions with 50 catchments per region on average. Preliminary results from the three different spatial scaling methods are generally in agreement and indicate that: i) only some of the peak flow variability is explained by area alone (approximately 50% for the entire country and ranging between the 40% and 70% for the sub-regions); ii) this percentage increases to 90% for the entire country and ranges between 80% and 95% for the sub-regions when the multiple regression is used; iii) the simple scaling hypothesis holds in all sub-regions with the exception of weak multi-scaling found in the regions 2 (North), and 5 and 6 (South East). We hypothesize that these deviations can be explained by heterogeneity in large scale precipitation and by the influence of the soil type (predominantly chalk) on the flood formation process in regions 5 and 6.

Assessment of catchments' flooding potential: a physically-based analytical tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botter, G.; Basso, S.; Schirmer, M.

2016-12-01

The assessment of the flooding potential of river catchments is critical in many research and applied fields, ranging from river science and geomorphology to urban planning and the insurance industry. Predicting magnitude and frequency of floods is key to prevent and mitigate the negative effects of high flows, and has therefore long been the focus of hydrologic research. Here, the recurrence intervals of seasonal flow maxima are estimated through a novel physically-based analytic approach, which links the extremal distribution of streamflows to the stochastic dynamics of daily discharge. An analytical expression of the seasonal flood-frequency curve is provided, whose parameters embody climate and landscape attributes of the contributing catchment and can be estimated from daily rainfall and streamflow data. Only one parameter, which expresses catchment saturation prior to rainfall events, needs to be calibrated on the observed maxima. The method has been tested in a set of catchments featuring heterogeneous daily flow regimes. The model is able to reproduce characteristic shapes of flood-frequency curves emerging in erratic and persistent flow regimes and provides good estimates of seasonal flow maxima in different climatic regions. Performances are steady when the magnitude of events with return times longer than the available sample size is estimated. This makes the approach especially valuable for regions affected by data scarcity.

Estimating the magnitude of peak discharges for selected flood frequencies on small streams in South Carolina (1975)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whetstone, B.H.

1982-01-01

A program to collect and analyze flood data from small streams in South Carolina was conducted from 1967-75, as a cooperative research project with the South Carolina Department of Highways and Public Transportation and the Federal Highway Administration. As a result of that program, a technique is presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods on small streams in South Carolina with drainage areas ranging in size from 1 to 500 square miles. Peak-discharge data from 74 stream-gaging stations (25 small streams were synthesized, whereas 49 stations had long-term records) were used in multiple regression procedures to obtain equations for estimating magnitude of floods having recurrence intervals of 10, 25, 50, and 100 years on small natural streams. The significant independent variable was drainage area. Equations were developed for the three physiographic provinces of South Carolina (Coastal Plain, Piedmont, and Blue Ridge) and can be used for estimating floods on small streams. (USGS)

Hydrological change: Towards a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Several studies have found that the frequency, magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods have significantly increased in many regions of the world. Yet, most of the methods used in detecting trends in hydrological extremes 1) focus on either floods or droughts, and/or 2) base their assessment on characteristics that, even though useful for trend identification, cannot be directly used in decision making, e.g. integrated water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we first discuss the need for a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts, and then propose a method based on the theory of runs and threshold levels. Flood and drought changes were assessed in terms of frequency, length and surplus/deficit volumes. This paper also presents an example application using streamflow data from two hydrometric stations along the Po River basin (Italy), Piacenza and Pontelagoscuro, and then discuss opportunities and challenges of the proposed method.

Flood magnitude-frequency analysis and sediment transport capacity rate assessment in a mixed alluvial-bedrock channel at Val Lumnezia, Eastern Switzerland, (Graubünden)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekaddour, T.

2012-04-01

There is growing evidence in the literature that flood frequency has a large impact on the effective time scale of hillslope-derived sediment transport. Here, we present quantitative data on sediment transport in the mountainous Glenner River that drains the 120 km2-large Val Lumnezia basin, eastern Swiss Alps. The longitudinal profile of this stream is characterized by the presence of three ca. 500 m-long knickzones where channel gradients range from 0.02 to 0.2 mm-1 and the stream narrows to < 2 m wide gorges. Upstream and downstream of these knickzone reaches, the stream is flat with gradients < 0.01 mm-1, and cross-sectional widths ≥ 30 m. Measurements of the grain size distribution along the stream yield d84 values that range from ca. 10 to 28 cm, whereas the d50 values scatter around 10 cm. We explore the consequences of the channel morphology and the grain size distribution for the time scales of sediment transport by using a 1-D step-back water hydraulic model (HEC-RAS), to estimate hydraulic conditions at number of flood events and to predict hydraulic parameters and the boundary shear stress. The results reveal that along the knickzone reaches, a 2 years return period flood event Q2 is capable of mobilizing the d84 fraction where boundary critical shear stress exceeds the Shields critical shear stress value at incipient motion. In all other flat stream segments, the d84 fraction is barely attaining incipient motion where the critical boundary shear stress is approximately equal to the Shields critical shear stress at incipient motion. The results differ for smaller grain sizes , where Q2 is capable of mobilizing the d50 fraction along the entire stream. We anticipate that the overall effect of Q2 floods is the enrichment of coarse-grained sediment in the flat channel reaches by the entrainment of the d50 fraction, shifting to a better sorting of the bed particles. As a result, the degree of interlocking of coarse grain material may increases, which ultimately leads to enhanced stabilization of the channel bed and thus to a higher threshold of critical stress of incipient motion. Q10 floods, in contrast, are capable of moving both the d50 and d84 fractions, which implies that Q10 represents an effective flood that is results in the evacuation of hillslope-derived material over longer distances. Our results thus support the idea that the mechanisms and timescales of sediment transport in high mountain streams strongly depend on stream geometry and flood magnitude-frequency.

Flood Protection Ecosystem Services in the Coast of Puerto Rico: Associations Between Watershed Processes and Local Human Health and Well Being Indicators

EPA Science Inventory

Flood events are becoming increasingly important in coastal cities due to a projected increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. A potential strategy to promote coastal protection from these hazards is the use of green infrastructure to provide flood protection ecosyste...

Current and future pluvial flood hazard analysis for the city of Antwerp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick; Tabari, Hossein; De Niel, Jan; Van Uytven, Els; Lambrechts, Griet; Wellens, Geert

2016-04-01

For the city of Antwerp in Belgium, higher rainfall extremes were observed in comparison with surrounding areas. The differences were found statistically significant for some areas and may be the result of the heat island effect in combination with the higher concentrations of aerosols. A network of 19 rain gauges but with varying records length (the longest since the 1960s) and continuous radar data for 10 years were combined to map the spatial variability of rainfall extremes over the city at various durations from 15 minutes to 1 day together with the uncertainty. The improved spatial rainfall information was used as input in the sewer system model of the city to analyze the frequency of urban pluvial floods. Comparison with historical flood observations from various sources (fire brigade and media) confirmed that the improved spatial rainfall information also improved sewer impact results on both the magnitude and frequency of the sewer floods. Next to these improved urban flood impact results for recent and current climatological conditions, the new insights on the local rainfall microclimate were also helpful to enhance future projections on rainfall extremes and pluvial floods in the city. This was done by improved statistical downscaling of all available CMIP5 global climate model runs (160 runs) for the 4 RCP scenarios, as well as the available EURO-CORDEX regional climate model runs. Two types of statistical downscaling methods were applied for that purpose (a weather typing based method, and a quantile perturbation approach), making use of the microclimate results and its dependency on specific weather types. Changes in extreme rainfall intensities were analyzed and mapped as a function of the RCP scenario, together with the uncertainty, decomposed in the uncertainties related to the climate models, the climate model initialization or limited length of the 30-year time series (natural climate variability) and the statistical downscaling (albeit limited to two types of methods). These were finally transferred into future pluvial flash flood hazard maps for the city together with the uncertainties, and are considered as basis for spatial planning and adaptation.

Detection of dominant runoff generation processes in flood frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iacobellis, Vito; Fiorentino, Mauro; Gioia, Andrea; Manfreda, Salvatore

2010-05-01

The investigation on hydrologic similarity represents one of the most exciting challenges faced by hydrologists in the last few years, in order to reduce uncertainty on flood prediction in ungauged basins (e.g., IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) - Sivapalan et al., 2003). In perspective, the identification of dominant runoff generation mechanisms may provide a strategy for catchment classification and identification hydrologically omogeneous regions. In this context, we exploited the framework of theoretically derived flood probability distributions, in order to interpret the physical behavior of real basins. Recent developments on theoretically derived distributions have highlighted that in a given basin different runoff processes may coexistence and modify or affect the shape of flood distributions. The identification of dominant runoff generation mechanisms represents a key signatures of flood distributions providing an insight in hydrologic similarity. Iacobellis and Fiorentino (2000) introduced a novel distribution of flood peak annual maxima, the "IF" distribution, which exploited the variable source area concept, coupled with a runoff threshold having scaling properties. More recently, Gioia et al (2008) introduced the Two Component-IF (TCIF) distribution, generalizing the IF distribution, based on two different threshold mechanisms, associated respectively to ordinary and extraordinary events. Indeed, ordinary floods are mostly due to rainfall events exceeding a threshold infiltration rate in a small source area, while the so-called outlier events, often responsible of the high skewness of flood distributions, are triggered by severe rainfalls exceeding a threshold storage in a large portion of the basin. Within this scheme, we focused on the application of both models (IF and TCIF) over a considerable number of catchments belonging to different regions of Southern Italy. In particular, we stressed, as a case of strong general interest in the field of statistical hydrology, the role of procedures for parameters estimation and techniques for model selection in the case of nested distributions. References Gioia, A., V. Iacobellis, S. Manfreda, M. Fiorentino, Runoff thresholds in derived flood frequency distributions, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1295-1307, 2008. Iacobellis, V., and M. Fiorentino (2000), Derived distribution of floods based on the concept of partial area coverage with a climatic appeal, Water Resour. Res., 36(2), 469-482. Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S. W., Gupta, V. K., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., Liang, X., McDonnell, J. J., Mendiondo, E. M., O'Connell, P. E., Oki, T., Pomeroy, J. W., Schertzer, D., Uhlenbrook, S. and Zehe, E.: IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003-2012: Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences, Hydrol. Sci. J., 48(6), 857-880, 2003.

Mining nitrate concentration patterns from high-frequency in situ monitoring: a step towards more detailed understanding of hydrological processes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubert, Alice; Houska, Tobias; Plesca, Ina; Kraft, Philipp; Breuer, Lutz

2015-04-01

Recently developed sensing technics allow collecting a considerable amount of high-frequency data; not only for hydrologic parameters (water levels, rainfall, etc.) but also for water chemistry. With devices such as in situ spectrophotometer, nitrate concentration can be monitored down to sub-hourly intervals. Thus, opening the way to new questions: what about daily or sub-daily instream nitrate concentration variations? What do these newly observed variations tell us about hydrological processes? In the Vollnkirchener Bach catchment, a headwater creek flows through a human impacted landscape dominated by agricultural and forest use and including a small settlement. Since March 2013, a Pro-PS device has been installed at the gauging station (monitored since 2011). Nitrate concentration is measured every 15 minutes, discharge and water temperature every 5 minutes. Data mining, more precisely motif discovery, is performed on these time series to identify high-resolution patterns. Spectral analysis highlighted that, in data measured at sub-hourly sampling frequency, variations up to a few hours are more likely to be dominated by measurement noise rather than real-world fluctuations. Therefore, we focus on daily motifs and flood patterns (given the fact that hydrological conditions are changing during flood events, we assume that nitrate concentration changes are depicting real processes). Various flood motifs were extracted: (1) nitrate can either be diluted or (2) concentrated, or (3) both (dilution followed by a bumpy recession curve indicating nitrate enrichment at the end of the flood). In addition to these classical nutrient-discharge behaviors, a variety of other interesting motifs were highlighted. (4) A daily nitrate cycle is clearly observed, but only during a specific year period. (5) Lag to peak time between parameters differentiate flood patterns: sometimes nitrate peaks first, sometimes discharge peaks first. (6) Furthermore, we are able to pinpoint the contributions of a combined sewer overflow, as it creates a different motif from diffuse nitrate inflows from adjacent agricultural fields. We look into the other hydrological parameters to explain this variety of patterns and their occurrence time.

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Snake River in Grand Teton National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Nicholas C.; Schmidt, John C.

2007-01-01

Flood magnitudes have decreased throughout the study area as a result of regulation, but these decreases are mitigated downstream from tributaries. Dam operations have not resulted in long-term progressive channel change or the development and abandonment of floodplain deposits. However, channel change is now dependant on the frequency of high-magnitude floods, and the frequency with which the two floodplains are inundated has been reduced.

Sacramento Metropolitan Area, California

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-02-01

restriction would apply to virtually all of West Sacramento. Future conditions in the bypass areas are expected to remain essentially the same. During...frequency, the stage-frequency curve in the study area essentially becomes flat because of the large storage volume behind upstream levee breaches. This curve...and 400-year flood plains are also essentially the same (15 to 16 feet) because of the following: 1) the flood volume for each event is sufficient to

The Potential Effect of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Property Values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, J.

2015-12-01

It is well established that one consequence of increasing global sea level is that the frequency of flooding at low-lying coastal sites will increase. We review recent evidence that the effects coastal geometry will create substantial spatial variations in the changes in flooding frequency with scales of order 100km. Using a simple model of the evolution of coastal property values we demonstrate that a consequence of sea level rise is that the appreciation of coastal properties will peak, and then decline relative to higher properties. The time when the value reach a maximum is shown to depend upon the demand for the coastal property, and the local rate of change of flooding frequency due to sea level rise. The simple model is then extended to include, in an elementary manner, the effects on the value of adjacent but higher properties. We show that the effect of increased flooding frequency of the lower properties leads to an accelerated appreciation of the value of upland properties and an accelerated decline in the value of the coastal properties. We then provide some example calculations for selected sites. We conclude with a discussion of comparisons of the prediction of the analyses to recent data, and then comments on the impact of sea level rise on tax base of coastal communities.

Variability of floods, droughts and windstorms over the past 500 years in Central Europe based on documentary and instrumental data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brazdil, Rudolf

2016-04-01

Hydrological and meteorological extremes (HMEs) in Central Europe during the past 500 years can be reconstructed based on instrumental and documentary data. Documentary data about weather and related phenomena represent the basic source of information for historical climatology and hydrology, dealing with reconstruction of past climate and HMEs, their perception and impacts on human society. The paper presents the basic distribution of documentary data on (i) direct descriptions of HMEs and their proxies on the one hand and on (ii) individual and institutional data sources on the other. Several groups of documentary evidence such as narrative written records (annals, chronicles, memoirs), visual daily weather records, official and personal correspondence, special prints, financial and economic records (with particular attention to taxation data), newspapers, pictorial documentation, chronograms, epigraphic data, early instrumental observations, early scientific papers and communications are demonstrated with respect to extraction of information about HMEs, which concerns usually of their occurrence, severity, seasonality, meteorological causes, perception and human impacts. The paper further presents the analysis of 500-year variability of floods, droughts and windstorms on the base of series, created by combination of documentary and instrumental data. Results, advantages and drawbacks of such approach are documented on the examples from the Czech Lands. The analysis of floods concentrates on the River Vltava (Prague) and the River Elbe (Děčín) which show the highest frequency of floods occurring in the 19th century (mainly of winter synoptic type) and in the second half of the 16th century (summer synoptic type). Reported are also the most disastrous floods (August 1501, March and August 1598, February 1655, June 1675, February 1784, March 1845, February 1862, September 1890, August 2002) and the European context of floods in the severe winter 1783/84. Drought fluctuations in the Czech Lands are represented by the chronology of drought frequency on the one hand and by the reconstructed series of drought indices (SPI, SPEI, Z-Index and PDSI) on the other. Wind extremes are documented on the example of Czech windstorm chronology derived from documentary data (including tornadoes) with an example of "windstorm of the 18th century" (20-21 December 1740). Finally, scientific potential and perspectives of historical-climatological (historical-hydrological) research of HMEs are presented.

Magnitude and frequency of flooding on small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area, west-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lopez, M.A.; Woodham, W.M.

1983-01-01

Hydrologic data collected on nine small urban watersheds in the Tampa Bay area of west-central Florida and a method for estimating peak discharges in the study area are described. The watersheds have mixed land use and range in size from 0.34 to 3.45 square miles. Watershed soils, land use, and storm-drainage system data are described. Urban development ranged from a sparsely populated area with open-ditch storm sewers and 19% impervious area to a completely sewered watershed with 61% impervious cover. The U.S. Geological Survey natural-basin and urban-watershed models were calibrated for the nine watersheds using 5-minute interval rainfall data from the Tampa, Florida, National Weather Service rain gage to simulate annual peak discharge for the period 1906-52. A log-Pearson Type III frequency analysis of the simulated annual maximum discharge was used to determine the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year flood discharges for each watershed. Flood discharges were related in a multiple-linear regression to drainage area, channel slope, detention storage area, and an urban-development factor determined by the extent of curb and gutter street drainage and storm-sewer system. The average standard error for the regional relations ranged from + or - 32 to + or - 42%. (USGS)

Validation of a 30 m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Johnson, Kris A.; Erickson, Tyler A.

2017-09-01

This paper reports the development of a ˜30 m resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the conterminous U.S. using only publicly available data. The model employs a highly efficient numerical solution of the local inertial form of the shallow water equations which simulates fluvial flooding in catchments down to 50 km2 and pluvial flooding in all catchments. Importantly, we use the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Elevation Dataset to determine topography; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset to explicitly represent known flood defenses; and global regionalized flood frequency analysis to characterize return period flows and rainfalls. We validate these simulations against the complete catalogue of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) maps and detailed local hydraulic models developed by the USGS. Where the FEMA SFHAs are based on high-quality local models, the continental-scale model attains a hit rate of 86%. This correspondence improves in temperate areas and for basins above 400 km2. Against the higher quality USGS data, the average hit rate reaches 92% for the 1 in 100 year flood, and 90% for all flood return periods. Given typical hydraulic modeling uncertainties in the FEMA maps and USGS model outputs (e.g., errors in estimating return period flows), it is probable that the continental-scale model can replicate both to within error. The results show that continental-scale models may now offer sufficient rigor to inform some decision-making needs with dramatically lower cost and greater coverage than approaches based on a patchwork of local studies.

Variations in flood magnitude-effect relations and the implications for flood risk assessment and river management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooke, J. M.

2015-12-01

In spite of major physical impacts from large floods, present river management rarely takes into account the possible dynamics and variation in magnitude-impact relations over time in flood risk mapping and assessment nor incorporates feedback effects of changes into modelling. Using examples from the literature and from field measurements over several decades in two contrasting environments, a semi-arid region and a humid-temperate region, temporal variations in channel response to flood events are evaluated. The evidence demonstrates how flood physical impacts can vary at a location over time. The factors influencing that variation on differing timescales are examined. The analysis indicates the importance of morphological changes and trajectory of adjustment in relation to thresholds, and that trends in force or resistance can take place over various timescales, altering those thresholds. Sediment supply can also change with altered connectivity upstream and changes in state of hillslope-channel coupling. It demonstrates that seasonal timing and sequence of events can affect response, particularly deposition through sediment supply. Duration can also have a significant effect and modify the magnitude relation. Lack of response or deposits in some events can mean that flood frequency using such evidence is underestimated. A framework for assessment of both past and possible future changes is provided which emphasises the uncertainty and the inconstancy of the magnitude-impact relation and highlights the dynamic factors and nature of variability that should be considered in sustainable management of river channels.

Floods of May 1981 in west-central Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Omang, R.J.; Hull, J.A.; Fassler, John W.

1982-01-01

Extensive flooding occurred in west-central Montana during May 22-23, 1981, as a result of a series of rainstorms. Flooding was particularly severe in the communities of East Helena, Belt, and Deer Lodge. Although no lives were lost, total flood damages were estimated by the Montana Disaster Emergency Services Division to be in excess of $30 million. Peak discharges were determined at 75 sites in the flooded area. At 25 sites the May 1981 peak discharge exceeded the computed 100-year frequency flood, and at 29 sites, where previous flow records are available, the May 1981 peak discharge exceeded the previous peak of record. (USGS)

Trend Detection and Bivariate Frequency Analysis for Nonstrationary Rainfall Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joo, K.; Kim, H.; Shin, J. Y.; Heo, J. H.

2017-12-01

Multivariate frequency analysis has been developing for hydro-meteorological data such as rainfall, flood, and drought. Particularly, the copula has been used as a useful tool for multivariate probability model which has no limitation on deciding marginal distributions. The time-series rainfall data can be characterized to rainfall event by inter-event time definition (IETD) and each rainfall event has a rainfall depth and rainfall duration. In addition, nonstationarity in rainfall event has been studied recently due to climate change and trend detection of rainfall event is important to determine the data has nonstationarity or not. With the rainfall depth and duration of a rainfall event, trend detection and nonstationary bivariate frequency analysis has performed in this study. 62 stations from Korea Meteorological Association (KMA) over 30 years of hourly recorded data used in this study and the suitability of nonstationary copula for rainfall event has examined by the goodness-of-fit test.

Glacial vs. Interglacial Period Contrasts in Midlatitude Fluvial Systems, with Examples from Western Europe and the Texas Coastal Plain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blum, M.

2001-12-01

Mixed bedrock-alluvial valleys are the conveyor belts for sediment delivery to passive continental margins. Mapping, stratigraphic and sedimentologic investigations, and development of geochronological frameworks for large midlatitude rivers of this type, in Western Europe and the Texas Coastal Plain, provide for evaluation of fluvial responses to climate change over the last glacial-interglacial period, and the foundations for future quantitative evaluation of long profile evolution, changes through time in flood magnitude, and changes in storage and flux of sediments. This paper focuses on two issues. First, glacial vs. interglacial period fluvial systems are fundamentally different in terms of channel geometry, depositional style, and patterns of sediment storage. Glacial-period systems were dominated by coarse-grained channel belts (braided channels in Europe, large-wavelength meandering in Texas), and lacked fine-grained flood-plain deposits, whereas Holocene units, especially those of late Holocene age, contain appreciable thicknesses of flood-plain facies. Hence, extreme overbank flooding was not significant during the long glacial period, most flood events were contained within bankfull channel perimeters, and fine sediments were bypassed through the system to marine basins. By contrast, extreme overbank floods have been increasingly important during the relatively short Holocene, and a significant volume of fine sediment is sequestered in flood-plain settings. Second, glacial vs. interglacial systems exhibit different amplitudes and frequencies of fluvial adjustment to climate change. High-amplitude but low-frequency adjustments characterized the long glacial period, with 2-3 extended periods of lateral migration and sediment storage puncuated by episodes of valley incision. Low-amplitude but high-frequency adjustments have been more typical of the short Holocene, when there has been little net valley incision or net changes in sediment storage, but frequent changes in the magnitude and frequency of floods and periods of overbank flooding. This high-frequency signal is absent in landforms and deposits from the glacial period. Glacial vs. interglacial contrasts in process and stratigraphic results are the rule in most large unglaciated fluvial systems. 70-80 percent or more of any 100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycle is characterized by significant ice volume, cooler temperatures, mid-shelf or lower sea-level positions, and cooler-smaller ocean basins. A glacial-period process regime is therefore the norm, and an interglacial regime like that of the late Holocene is relatively unique and non-representative. Large unglaciated midlatitude fluvial systems may be in long-term equilibrium with a glacial-period environment, with long profiles graded to glacial-period sea-level positions, so fluvial systems respond to major changes in climate, discharge regimes, and sediment loads, but they appear to have been relatively insensitive to higher-frequency changes. Short interglacials like the Holocene are, by comparison, periods of abnormally high sea levels and relatively low-amplitude climate changes, but fluvial systems appear to exhibit a greatly increased sensitivity to subtle changes in discharge regimes that produce frequent periods of disequilibrium.

Urban Infrastructure, Channel-Floodplain Morphology and Flood Flow Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, A. J.; Smith, J. A.; Nelson, C. B.

2006-12-01

The relationship between the channel and the floodplain in urban settings is heavily influenced by (1) altered watershed hydrologic response and frequency distribution of flows, (2) channel enlargement resulting from altered hydrology under conditions of limited sediment supply, (3) direct modification of channels and floodplains for purposes of erosion mitigation, flood protection, commercial development and creation of public amenities, (4) valley constrictions and flow obstructions associated with bridges, culverts, road embankments and other types of floodplain encroachment causing fragmentation or longitudinal segmentation of the riparian corridor. Field observation of inundation patterns associated with recurring floods in the Baltimore metropolitan area is used in combination with 2-dimensional hydraulic modeling to simulate patterns of floodplain inundation and to explore the relationships between magnitude and shape of the flood hydrograph, morphology of the urban channel-floodplain system, and the frequency and extent of floodplain inundation. Case studies include a July 2004 flood associated with a 300-year 2-hour rainfall in a small (14.2 km2) urban watershed, as well as several other events caused by summer thunderstorms with shorter recurrence intervals that generated an extraordinary flood response. The influence of urban infrastructure on flood inundation and flow patterns is expressed in terms of altered (and hysteretic) stage-discharge relationships, stepped flood profiles, rapid longitudinal attenuation of flood waves, and transient flow reversals at confluences and constrictions. Given the current level of interest in restoration measures these patterns merit consideration in planning future development and mitigation efforts.

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

PubMed Central

Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-01-01

Abstract This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non‐fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation. PMID:27840456

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, José Luis; Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-09-01

This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non-fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information.

PubMed

Salinas, José Luis; Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-09-01

This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non-fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

Challenges of flood monitoring in the Senegal river valley using multi-temporal data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruckmann, Laurent; Delbart, Nicolas

2017-04-01

In Sub-Saharan Africa, floodplains wetlands play an important role for livelihoods and economy, especially for agriculture and fishing. However, tropical rivers flows are increasingly modified by climate change and dam regulation. In the Senegal river valley, the annual flood, from August to November, is an important water resources creating ecosystems services for people. Senegal river basin face to hydrological changes, due to rainfall diminution during the 1970's and building of large dams during 1980's to secure water resources. Water management and development of irrigation have modified the floodplain functioning. Flood recession agriculture, grazing and fishing are now confronted to a high uncertainty about floods level, duration and extension. Thus, spatiotemporal information of flood extension and duration are important for local communities and stakeholders to ensure food security and ecosystems services. Multi-temporal satellite data demonstrates an important applicability for flood mapping. Aims of this work is to present potentiality of using multi-temporal data from MODIS and new satellite Sentinel-2 for flood monitoring in a Sahelian context. It will also discuss the potential of flood mapping for the analysis of the dynamics of riparian vegetation and flood recession agriculture. This study uses two datasets to explore flood monitoring in Senegal river valley. Firstly, MODIS 8-days data (MOD09A) are first used, because of its temporal resolution of 8 days covering the period from 2000 to 2016. However, MODIS data are limited due to a low spatial resolution, that's why we also use Sentinel-2 data, available since summer 2015. The data were processed by constructing NDWI time-series (NDWI threshold is empirically defined) and extracting NDWI values for each inundated pixel during flood. First results demonstrate that using MODIS on a large scale is enough for analyze interannual variability of the flooded surfaces. We present here maps of flood frequency of the pixels between 2000 and 2016. MODIS spatial resolution is insufficient to analyze the interaction between flood hydrology and vegetation dynamics, whereas flood monitoring by Sentinel data seems to offer better potential. We illustrate our observations through a cartographic example of these interactions at local scale in Senegal river floodplain.

Impacts of Non-Stationarity in Climate on Flood Intensity-Duration-Frequency: Case Studies in Mountainous Areas with Snowmelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Ren, H.; Sun, N.; Leung, L. R.; Liu, Y.; Coleman, A. M.; Skaggs, R.; Wigmosta, M. S.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic engineering design usually involves intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analysis for calculating runoff from a design storm of specified precipitation frequency and duration using event-based hydrologic rainfall-runoff models. Traditionally, the procedure assumes climate stationarity and neglects snowmelt-driven runoff contribution to floods. In this study, we used high resolution climate simulations to provide inputs to the physics-based Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to determine the spatially distributed precipitation and snowmelt available for runoff. Climate model outputs were extracted around different mountainous field sites in Colorado and California. IDF curves were generated at each numerical grid of DHSVM based on the simulated precipitation, temperature, and available water for runoff. Quantitative evaluation of trending and stationarity tests were conducted to identify (quasi-)stationary time periods for reliable IDF analysis. The impact of stationarity was evaluated by comparing the derived IDF attributes with respect to time windows of different length and level of stationarity. Spatial mapping of event return-period was performed for various design storms, and spatial mapping of event intensity was performed for given duration and return periods. IDF characteristics were systematically compared (historical vs RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5) using annual maximum series vs partial duration series data with the goal of providing reliable IDF analyses to support hydrologic engineering design.

Assessment of Coastal and Urban Flooding Hazards Applying Extreme Value Analysis and Multivariate Statistical Techniques: A Case Study in Elwood, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rosbjerg, Dan; Madsen, Henrik

2016-04-01

Traditionally, flood risk assessment studies have been carried out from a univariate frequency analysis perspective. However, statistical dependence between hydrological variables, such as extreme rainfall and extreme sea surge, is plausible to exist, since both variables to some extent are driven by common meteorological conditions. Aiming to overcome this limitation, multivariate statistical techniques has the potential to combine different sources of flooding in the investigation. The aim of this study was to apply a range of statistical methodologies for analyzing combined extreme hydrological variables that can lead to coastal and urban flooding. The study area is the Elwood Catchment, which is a highly urbanized catchment located in the city of Port Phillip, Melbourne, Australia. The first part of the investigation dealt with the marginal extreme value distributions. Two approaches to extract extreme value series were applied (Annual Maximum and Partial Duration Series), and different probability distribution functions were fit to the observed sample. Results obtained by using the Generalized Pareto distribution demonstrate the ability of the Pareto family to model the extreme events. Advancing into multivariate extreme value analysis, first an investigation regarding the asymptotic properties of extremal dependence was carried out. As a weak positive asymptotic dependence between the bivariate extreme pairs was found, the Conditional method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004) was chosen. This approach is suitable to model bivariate extreme values, which are relatively unlikely to occur together. The results show that the probability of an extreme sea surge occurring during a one-hour intensity extreme precipitation event (or vice versa) can be twice as great as what would occur when assuming independent events. Therefore, presuming independence between these two variables would result in severe underestimation of the flooding risk in the study area.

Adige river in Trento flooding map, 1892: private or public risk transfer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranzi, Roberto

2016-04-01

For the determination of the flood risk hydrologist and hydraulic engineers focuse their attention mainly to the estimation of physical factors determining the flood hazard, while economists and experts of social sciences deal mainly with the estimation of vulnerability and exposure. The fact that flood zoning involves both hydrological and socio-economic aspects, however, was clear already in the XIX century when the impact of floods on inundated areas started to appear in flood maps, for instance in the UK and in Italy. A pioneering 'flood risk' map for the Adige river in Trento, Italy, was already published in 1892, taking into account in detail both hazard intensity in terms of velocity and depth, frequency of occurrence, vulnerability and economic costs for flood protection with river embankments. This map is likely to be the reinterpreted certainly as a pioneering, and possibly as the first flood risk map for an Italian river and worldwide. Risk levels were divided in three categories and seven sub-categories, depending on flood water depth, velocity, frequency and damage costs. It is interesting to notice the fact that at that time the map was used to share the cost of levees' reparation and enhancement after the severe September 1882 flood as a function of the estimated level of protection of the respective areas against the flood risk. The sharing of costs between public bodies, the railway company and private owners was debated for about 20 years and at the end the public sustained the major costs. This shows how already at that time the economic assessment of structural flood protections was based on objective and rational cost-benefit criteria, that hydraulic risk mapping was perceived by the society as fundamental for the design of flood protection systems and that a balanced cost sharing between public and private was an accepted approach although some protests arose at that time.

The role of hydrological initial conditions on Atmospheric River floods in the Russian River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Q.; Mehran, A.; Ralph, M.; Cannon, F.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2017-12-01

A body of work over the last decade or so has demonstrated that most major floods along the U.S. West Coast are attributable to Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Antecedent hydrological conditions play an important part in the natural links between precipitation and floods, and this is especially the case in the Pacific Coastal region where precipitation is strongly winter-dominant, and many potentially flood-inducing events occur relatively early in the wet season. The Russian River Basin has these characteristics, the result of which is mostly dry soils at the onset of the fall precipitation season. There is therefore a tradeoff in terms of flood potential between the strength of AR events, and the time history of previous precipitation that has begun to wet soils and raise local water tables. In order to examine flood responses associated with varying precursor hydrological conditions, we first constructed a data set of AR events that were coincident with Peaks Over Threshold (POT) extreme discharge events at selected USGS stream gauges throughout the Russian River basin. We investigated the role of antecedent soil moisture and water table conditions on historical AR flooding, initially using an exploratory data analysis approach. We then implemented the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) over the entire basin and conducted modeling experiments for each of the POT events under climatological and extreme antecedent conditions. We reconstructed climatological soil moisture by assimilating in situ observations into long-term soil moisture simulations from the UCLA Western U.S. Drought Monitoring System. We explore an envelope of frequency distributions of floods given a range of AR-related extreme precipitation and various initial hydrologic conditions, which eventually should have implications for flood management decision-making.

Historical flood data series of Eastern Spanish Coast (14th-20th centuries). Improving identification of climatic patterns and human factors of flood events from primary documentary sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberola, Armando; Barriendos, Mariano; Gil-Guirado, Salvador; Pérez-Morales, Alfredo; Balasch, Carles; Castelltort, Xavier; Mazón, Jordi; Pino, David; Lluís Ruiz-Bellet, Josep; Tuset, Jordi

2016-04-01

Historical flood data series of Eastern Spanish Coast (14th-20th centuries). Improving identification of climatic patterns and human factors of flood events from primary documentary sources Armando Alberola, Barriendos, M., Gil-Guirado, S., Pérez Morales, A., Balasch, C., Castelltort, X., Mazón, J., Pino, D., Ruiz-Bellet, J.L., Tuset, J. Historical flood events in eastern spanish coast have been studied by different research groups and projects. Complexity of flood processes, involving atmospheric, surface and human factors, is not easily understandable when long time series are required. Present analysis from PREDIFLOOD Project Consortium defines a new step of flood event databases: Improved access to primary (documentary) and secondary (bibliographical) sources, data collection for all possible locations where floods are detected, and improved system of classification (Barriendos et al., 2014). A first analysis is applied to 8 selected flood series. Long chronologies from PREDIFLOOD Project for Catalonia region (Girona, Barcelona, Tarragona, Lleida, Tortosa). In addition, to cover all sector of spanish mediterranean coast, we introduce Valencia city in Turia River basin. South Eastern sector is cover with Murcia and Caravaca cities, Segura River basin. Extension of area under study required contributions of research teams experienced in work of documentary primary sources (Alberola, 2006; Gil-Guirado, 2013). Flood frequency analysis for long scale periods show natural climatic oscillations into so-called Little Ice Age. There are general patterns, affecting most of basins, but also some local anomalies or singularities. To explain these differences and analogies it is not enough to use purely climatic factors. In this way, we analyze human factors that have been able to influence the variability of floods along last 6 centuries (demography, hydraulic infrastructures, urban development...). This approach improves strongly understanding of mechanisms producing major flood events on Eastern coast of Iberian Peninsula, with identification and evaluation of natural and human factors involved on that. References: Alberola, A. 2006. "Entre la sequía y la inundación. Una aproximación a las avenidas históricas de los ríos valencianos durante el siglo XVIII", in Gérard Chastagnaret and Antonio Gil Olcina (eds.), Riesgo de inundaciones en el Mediterráneo occidental, Casa de Velázquez-Universidad de Alicante, p. 1-30. ISBN 84-95555-89-1. Barriendos, M., Ruiz-Bellet, J.L., Tuset, J., Mazón, J., Balasch, C., Pino, D., Ayala, J.L.: 2014, "The 'Prediflood' database of historical floods in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) AD 1035-2013, and its potential applications in flood analysis", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18: 1-17. DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-1-2014. Gil-Guirado, S.: 2013. Reconstrucción climática histórica y análisis evolutivo de la vulnerabilidad y adaptación a las sequías e inundaciones en la Cuenca del Segura (España) y en la Cuenca del Río Mendoza (Argentina). Doctoral dissertation. Universidad de Murcia, Murcia, España.

Hydraulic analysis, Mad River at State Highway 41, Springfield, Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mayo, Ronald I.

1977-01-01

A hydraulic analysis of the lad River in a reach at Springfield, Ohio was made to determine the effects of relocating State Highway 41 in 1S76. The main channel was cleaned by dredging in the vicinity cf the new highway bridge and at the Detroit, Toledo and Ironton Railway bridge upstream. The new highway was placed on a high fill with relief structures for flood plain drainage consisting of a 12-foot corrugated metal pipe culvert and a bridge opening to accommodate the Detroit, Toledo and Ironton Railway and a property access road. The effect of the new highway embankment on drainage from the flood plain was requested. Also requested was the effect that might be expected on the elevation of flood waters above the new highway embankment if the access road through the new highway embankment were raised.The study indicates that the improvement in the capacity of the main channel to carry water was such that, up to a discharge equivalent to a 25-year frequency flood, the water-surface elevation in the reach upstream from the Detroit, Toledo and Ironton Railway bridge would be about 0.6 foot lower than under conditions prior to the construction on State Highway 41. Diversion through the Mad River left bank levee break above the Detroit, Toledo and Ironton Railway bridge to the flood Flain would be decreased about one-half in terms of rate of discharge in cubic feet per second. The maximum difference in elevation cf the flood water between the upstream and downstream side of the new State Highway 41 embankment would be about 0.2 foot, with an additional 0.4 foot to be expected if the access road were raised 1.5 feet.

Reconciling Environmental and Flood Control Goals on an Arid-Zone River: Case Study of the Limitrophe Region of the Lower Colorado River in the United States and Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glenn, Edward P.; Hucklebridge, Kate; Hinojosa-Huerta, Osvel; Nagler, Pamela L.; Pitt, Jennifer

2008-03-01

Arid zone rivers have highly variable flow rates, and flood control projects are needed to protect adjacent property from flood damage. On the other hand, riparian corridors provide important wildlife habitat, especially for birds, and riparian vegetation is adapted to the natural variability in flows on these rivers. While environmental and flood control goals might appear to be at odds, we show that both goals can be accommodated in the Limitrophe Region (the shared border between the United States and Mexico) on the Lower Colorado River. In 1999, the International Boundary and Water Commission proposed a routine maintenance project to clear vegetation and create a pilot channel within the Limitrophe Region to improve flow capacity and delineate the border. In 2000, however, Minute 306 to the international water treaty was adopted, which calls for consideration of environmental effects of IBWC actions. We conducted vegetation and bird surveys within the Limitrophe and found that this river segment is unusually rich in native cottonwood and willow trees, marsh habitat, and resident and migratory birds compared to flow-regulated segments of river. A flood-frequency analysis showed that the existing levee system can easily contain a 100 year flood even if vegetation is not removed, and the existing braided channel system has greater carrying capacity than the proposed pilot channel.

Flood Inundation Mapping and Emergency Operations during Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, N. Z.; Cotter, J.; Gao, S.; Bedient, P. B.; Yung, A.; Penland, C.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey struck the Gulf Coast as Category 4 on August 25, 2017 with devastating and life-threatening floods in Texas. Harris County received up to 49 inches of rainfall over a 5-day period and experienced flooding level and impacts beyond any previous storm in Houston's history. The depth-duration-frequency analysis reveals that the areal average rainfall for Brays Bayou surpasses the 500-year rainfall in both 24 and 48 hours. To cope with this unprecedented event, the researchers at the University of Texas at Arlington and Rice University worked closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the National Weather Service (NWS), the Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM), Walter P. Moore and Associates, Inc. and Halff Associates, to conduct a series of meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic analyses to delineate flood inundation maps. Up to eight major watersheds in Harris County were delineated based the available QPE data from WGRFC. The inundation map over Brays Bayou with their impacts from Hurricane Harvey was delineated in comparison with those of 100-, 500-year, and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) design storms. This presentation will provide insights for both engineers and planners to re-evaluate the existing flood infrastructure and policy, which will help build Houston stronger for future extreme storms. The collaborative effort among the federal, academic, and private entities clearly demonstrates an effective approach for flood inundation mapping initiatives for the nation.

Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, Brenden; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Feyen, Luc; Aerts, Jeroen; Mechler, Reinhard; Botzen, Wouter; Bouwer, Laurens; Pflug, Georg; Rojas, Rodrigo; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Recent major flood disasters have shown that single extreme events can affect multiple countries simultaneously, which puts high pressure on trans-national risk reduction and risk transfer mechanisms. To date, little is known about such flood hazard interdependencies across regions, and the corresponding joint risks at regional to continental scales. Reliable information on correlated loss probabilities is crucial for developing robust insurance schemes and public adaptation funds, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. Here we show that extreme discharges are strongly correlated across European river basins and that these correlations can, or should, be used in national to continental scale risk assessment. We present probabilistic trends in continental flood risk, and demonstrate that currently observed extreme flood losses could more than double in frequency by 2050 under future climate change and socioeconomic development. The results demonstrate that accounting for tail dependencies leads to higher estimates of extreme losses than estimates based on the traditional assumption of independence between basins. We suggest that risk management for these increasing losses is largely feasible, and we demonstrate that risk can be shared by expanding risk transfer financing, reduced by investing in flood protection, or absorbed by enhanced solidarity between countries. We conclude that these measures have vastly different efficiency, equity and acceptability implications, which need to be taken into account in broader consultation, for which our analysis provides a basis.

Reconciling environmental and flood control goals on an arid-zone river: case study of the limitrophe region of the lower colorado river in the United States and Mexico.

PubMed

Glenn, Edward P; Hucklebridge, Kate; Hinojosa-Huerta, Osvel; Nagler, Pamela L; Pitt, Jennifer

2008-03-01

Arid zone rivers have highly variable flow rates, and flood control projects are needed to protect adjacent property from flood damage. On the other hand, riparian corridors provide important wildlife habitat, especially for birds, and riparian vegetation is adapted to the natural variability in flows on these rivers. While environmental and flood control goals might appear to be at odds, we show that both goals can be accommodated in the Limitrophe Region (the shared border between the United States and Mexico) on the Lower Colorado River. In 1999, the International Boundary and Water Commission proposed a routine maintenance project to clear vegetation and create a pilot channel within the Limitrophe Region to improve flow capacity and delineate the border. In 2000, however, Minute 306 to the international water treaty was adopted, which calls for consideration of environmental effects of IBWC actions. We conducted vegetation and bird surveys within the Limitrophe and found that this river segment is unusually rich in native cottonwood and willow trees, marsh habitat, and resident and migratory birds compared to flow-regulated segments of river. A flood-frequency analysis showed that the existing levee system can easily contain a 100 year flood even if vegetation is not removed, and the existing braided channel system has greater carrying capacity than the proposed pilot channel.

The effects of artificial sandbar breaching on the macrophyte communities of an intermittently open estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribeiro, Jose Pedro N.; Saggio, Ângelo; Lima, Maria Inês Salgueiro

2013-04-01

Artificial sandbar opening of intermittently open estuaries is a practice utilised worldwide to improve water quality, fishing, and recreational amenities and to prevent the flooding of adjacent properties. Breaching causes the water level to drop drastically, exposing plants to two water level extremes. With some exceptions, estuarine communities are adversely affected by this practice. Although breaching can happen naturally, artificial breaching is on the rise, and the impact of manipulating water levels on estuarine communities needs to be investigated. In this work, we described the breaching cycles of the Massaguaçu River Estuary and proposed flooding scenarios for the estuary's macrophyte banks based on our data. We calculated the relationship between plant distribution and flooding conditions and used our calculations to predict the estuary community's composition depending on the water level at breaching time. We discovered a strong relationship between plant distribution and flooding conditions, and we predicted that the estuarine community would be markedly different between flooding scenarios. Low frequency flooding scenarios would be related to submerged macrophytes and, as the flooding frequency increases, macrophytes would be replaced by amphibious plants, and eventually by the arboreal stratus. Therefore, we concluded that an increase in artificial breaching cycles would have a detrimental impact on the estuary community.

Frequency and intensity of high-altitude floods over the last 3.5 ka in northwestern French Alps (Lake Anterne)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giguet-Covex, Charline; Arnaud, Fabien; Enters, Dirk; Poulenard, Jérôme; Millet, Laurent; Francus, Pierre; David, Fernand; Rey, Pierre-Jérôme; Wilhelm, Bruno; Delannoy, Jean-Jacques

2012-01-01

In central Western Europe, several studies have shown that colder Holocene periods, such as the Little Ice Age, also correspond to wet periods. However, in mountain areas which are highly sensitive to erosion processes and where precipitation events can be localized, past evolution of hydrological activity might be more complicated. To assess these past hydrological changes, a paleolimnological approach was applied on a 13.4-m-long sediment core taken in alpine Lake Anterne (2063 m asl) and representing the last 3.5 ka. Lake sedimentation is mainly composed of flood deposits triggered by precipitation events. Sedimentological and geochemical analyses show that floods were more frequent during cold periods while high-intensity flood events occurred preferentially during warmer periods. In mild temperature conditions, both flood patterns are present. This underlines the complex relationship between flood hazards and climatic change in mountain areas. During the warmer and/or dryer times of the end of Iron Age and the Roman Period, both the frequency and intensity of floods increased. This is interpreted as an effect of human-induced clearing for grazing activities and reveals that anthropogenic interferences must be taken into account when reconstructing climatic signals from natural archives.

Predicting nonstationary flood frequencies: Evidence supports an updated stationarity thesis in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Adam; Vrugt, Jasper A.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Matthew, Richard; Sanders, Brett F.

2017-07-01

Nonstationary extreme value analysis (NEVA) can improve the statistical representation of observed flood peak distributions compared to stationary (ST) analysis, but management of flood risk relies on predictions of out-of-sample distributions for which NEVA has not been comprehensively evaluated. In this study, we apply split-sample testing to 1250 annual maximum discharge records in the United States and compare the predictive capabilities of NEVA relative to ST extreme value analysis using a log-Pearson Type III (LPIII) distribution. The parameters of the LPIII distribution in the ST and nonstationary (NS) models are estimated from the first half of each record using Bayesian inference. The second half of each record is reserved to evaluate the predictions under the ST and NS models. The NS model is applied for prediction by (1) extrapolating the trend of the NS model parameters throughout the evaluation period and (2) using the NS model parameter values at the end of the fitting period to predict with an updated ST model (uST). Our analysis shows that the ST predictions are preferred, overall. NS model parameter extrapolation is rarely preferred. However, if fitting period discharges are influenced by physical changes in the watershed, for example from anthropogenic activity, the uST model is strongly preferred relative to ST and NS predictions. The uST model is therefore recommended for evaluation of current flood risk in watersheds that have undergone physical changes. Supporting information includes a MATLAB® program that estimates the (ST/NS/uST) LPIII parameters from annual peak discharge data through Bayesian inference.

Challenges of Developing Design Discharge Estimates with Uncertain Data and Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U. S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on design discharge estimates obtained for gauged basins through flood flow frequency analysis. Bulletin 17B (B17B) guidelines are widely used in the USA for developing these design estimates, which are required for many water resources engineering design applications. A set of outlier and historical data, and distribution parameter selection options is included in these guidelines. These options are provided in the guidelines as a means of accounting for uncertain data and information, primarily in the flow record. The individual as well as the cumulative effects of each of these preferences on design discharge estimates are evaluated in this study by using data from several gauges that are part of the United States Geological Survey's Hydro-Climatic Data Network. The results of this study show that despite the availability of rigorous and detailed guidelines for flood frequency analysis, the design discharge estimates can still vary substantially, from user to user, based on data and model parameter selection options chosen by each user. Thus, the findings of this study have strong implications for water resources engineers and other professionals who use B17B-based design discharge estimates in their work.

Back analysis of Swiss flood danger map to define local flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choffet, Marc; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Leroi, Eric; Mayis, Arnaud

2010-05-01

The flood hazard maps for the entire Switzerland will be available at the end of 2011. Furthermore, the Swiss territory has been covered by aerial laser scanning (ALS) providing high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). This paper describes the development of a method for analyzing the local flood hazard based on Swiss hazard maps and HR-DEM. In their original state, Swiss hazard maps are constructed on the basis of an aggregation of information, a matrix intensity, and frequency. The degree of danger represented by the yellow, blue and red zones gives no information on the water level at each point of the territory. The developed method is based on a superposition of the danger map with the HR-DEM to determine the water level in a hazard area. To perform this method, (1) a triangulation is based on the intersection of the hazard map with the HR-DEM. It uses the limits of area where information is contrain. The hazard map perimeter and the boundaries of hazard areas give information on the widest possible overflow in case of flooding. It is also possible to associate it with a return period. (2) Based on these areas and the difference with the DEM, it is possible to calibrate the highest flood level and the extract water levels for the entire area. This analysis of existing documents opens up interesting perspectives for understanding how infrastructures are threatened by flood hazard by predicting water levels and potential damages to buildings while proposing remedial measures. Indeed, this method allows estimating the water level at each point of a building in case of flooding. It is designed to provide spatial information on water height levels; this offers a different approach of buildings in danger zones. Indeed, it is possible to discern several elements, such as areas of water accumulation involving longer flood duration, possible structural damages to buildings due to high hydrostatic pressure, determination of a local hazard, or the display of water levels in 3D.

Hydrological inferences through morphometric analysis of lower Kosi river basin of India for water resource management based on remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rai, Praveen Kumar; Chandel, Rajeev Singh; Mishra, Varun Narayan; Singh, Prafull

2018-03-01

Satellite based remote sensing technology has proven to be an effectual tool in analysis of drainage networks, study of surface morphological features and their correlation with groundwater management prospect at basin level. The present study highlights the effectiveness and advantage of remote sensing and GIS-based analysis for quantitative and qualitative assessment of flood plain region of lower Kosi river basin based on morphometric analysis. In this study, ASTER DEM is used to extract the vital hydrological parameters of lower Kosi river basin in ARC GIS software. Morphometric parameters, e.g., stream order, stream length, bifurcation ratio, drainage density, drainage frequency, drainage texture, form factor, circularity ratio, elongation ratio, etc., have been calculated for the Kosi basin and their hydrological inferences were discussed. Most of the morphometric parameters such as bifurcation ratio, drainage density, drainage frequency, drainage texture concluded that basin has good prospect for water management program for various purposes and also generated data base that can provide scientific information for site selection of water-harvesting structures and flood management activities in the basin. Land use land cover (LULC) of the basin were also prepared from Landsat data of 2005, 2010 and 2015 to assess the change in dynamic of the basin and these layers are very noteworthy for further watershed prioritization.

Large projected increases in rain-on-snow flood potential over western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musselman, K. N.; Ikeda, K.; Barlage, M. J.; Lehner, F.; Liu, C.; Newman, A. J.; Prein, A. F.; Mizukami, N.; Gutmann, E. D.; Clark, M. P.; Rasmussen, R.

2017-12-01

In the western US and Canada, some of the largest annual flood events occur when warm storm systems drop substantial rainfall on extensive snow-cover. For example, last winter's Oroville dam crisis in California was exacerbated by rapid snowmelt during a rain-on-snow (ROS) event. We present an analysis of ROS events with flood-generating potential over western North America simulated at high-resolution by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run for both a 13-year control time period and re-run with a `business-as-usual' future (2071-2100) climate scenario. Daily ROS with flood-generating potential is defined as rainfall of at least 10 mm per day falling on snowpack of at least 10 mm water equivalent, where the sum of rainfall and snowmelt contains at least 20% snowmelt. In a warmer climate, ROS is less frequent in regions where it is historically common, and more frequent elsewhere. This is evidenced by large simulated reductions in snow-cover and ROS frequency at lower elevations, particularly in warmer, coastal regions, and greater ROS frequency at middle elevations and in inland regions. The same trend is reflected in the annual-average ROS runoff volume (rainfall + snowmelt) aggregated to major watersheds; large reductions of 25-75% are projected for much of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, while large increases are simulated for the Colorado River basin, western Canada, and the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. In the warmer climate, snowmelt contributes substantially less to ROS runoff per unit rainfall, particularly in inland regions. The reduction in snowmelt contribution is due to a shift in ROS timing from warm spring events to cooler winter conditions and/or from warm, lower elevations to cool, higher elevations. However, the slower snowmelt is offset by an increase in rainfall intensity, maintaining the flood potential of ROS at or above historical levels. In fact, we report large projected increases in the intensity of extreme ROS events. The projected increases in ROS flood potential are highest in historically flood-prone mountain basins and the Canadian Prairies. Increases in extreme ROS event intensity, together with a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain, have critical implications on the climate resilience of regional flood control systems.

Germination of Cherrybark and Nuttal Oak Acorns Following Flooding

Treesearch

C. B. Briscoe

1961-01-01

Frequency and duration of flooding is undoubtedly one of the most important environmental factors affecting species distribution in bottomland forests. In the life of a tree this influence is first exerted on the seed, and the capacity of seeds to retain viability after submergence by flood water may well be an important factor in determining the success of a species...

Assessing Flood Risk at Nuclear Power Plants with an Uncertain Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wigmosta, M. S.; Vail, L. W.

2011-12-01

In 2010 a tsunami severely damaged the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan. As a result, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission directed that a systematic and methodical review of Commission processes and regulations be performed to determine whether the agency should make additional improvements to its regulatory system and to make recommendations to the Commission. Two of the recommendations of the Task Force created to inform the Commission were: establish a logical, systematic, and coherent regulatory framework for adequate protection that appropriately balances defense-in-depth and risk considerations and that the NRC require licensees to reevaluate and upgrade as necessary the design-basis flooding protection of structures, systems, and components for each operating reactor. These recommendations came at the same time as technical discussions about updating approaches to evaluate flood hazard were underway. These discussions included: consideration of climate nonstationarity in flood assessments; transitioning from PMP/PMF assessments to probabilistic flood analyses to better align with risk-informed decision making; and systematic consideration of combined events in flood risk analysis. There is no scientific basis to assume that shifts in long-term mean precipitation and temperature (such as is commonly derived from climate models) relate to flood probability. Flood mechanisms are often more complex and reflect climate pattern anomalies more than mean annual shifts. Instead of discounting historical data due to climatic nonstationarity, it is important to better understand the climate patterns that have triggered floods in the past and to look to climate forecasts to understand the likely changes in the frequency of those historical climate patterns with climate change. It is equally important to have a better understanding of whether climate change will result in flood-generating climate systems heretofore unknown in the particular locale. This presentation will provide a roadmap to ensuring that the flood hazards of existing and future nuclear power plants are well defined.

Floods of the Lower Tisza from the late 17th century onwards: frequency, magnitude, seasonality and great flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea

2016-04-01

The present paper is based on a recently developed database including contemporary original, administrative, legal and private source materials (published and archival) as well as media reports related to the floods occurred on the lower sections of the Tisza river in Hungary, with special emphasis on the area of Szeged town. The study area is well-represented by contemporary source evidence from the late 17th century onwards, when the town and its broader area was reoccupied from the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Concerning the applied source materials, the main bases of investigation are the administrative (archival) sources such as town council protocols of Szeged and county meeting protocols of Csanád and Csongrád Counties. In these (legal-)administrative documents damaging events (natural/environmental hazards) were systematically recorded. Moreover, other source types such as taxation-related damage accounts as well as private and official reports, letters and correspondence (published, unpublished) were also included. Concerning published evidence, a most important source is flood reports in contemporary newspapers as well as town chronicles and other contemporary narratives. In the presentation the main focus is on the analysis of flood-rich flood-poor periods of the last ca. 330 years; moreover, the seasonality distribution as well as the magnitude of Tisza flood events are also discussed. Another important aim of the poster is to provide a short overview, in the form of case studies, on the greatest flood events (e.g. duration, magnitude, damages, multi-annual consequences), and their further impacts on the urban and countryside development as well as on (changes in) flood defence strategies. In this respect, especially two flood events, the great (1815-)1816 and the catastrophic 1879 flood (shortly with causes and consequences) - that practically erased Szeged town from the ground - are presented in more detail.

Combining geomorphic and documentary flood evidence to reconstruct extreme events in Mediterranean basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorndycraft, V. R.; Benito, G.; Barriendos, M.; Rico, M.; Sánchez-Moya, Y.; Sopeña, A.; Casas, A.

2009-09-01

Palaeoflood hydrology is the reconstruction of flood magnitude and frequency using geomorphological flood evidence and is particularly valuable for extending the record of extreme floods prior to the availability of instrumental data series. This paper will provide a review of recent developments in palaeoflood hydrology and will be presented in three parts: 1) an overview of the key methodological approaches used in palaeoflood hydrology and the use of historical documentary evidence for reconstructing extreme events; 2) a summary of the Llobregat River palaeoflood case study (Catalonia, NE Spain); and 3) analysis of the AD 1617 flood and its impacts across Catalonia (including the rivers Llobregat, Ter and Segre). The key findings of the Llobregat case study were that at least eight floods occurred with discharges significantly larger than events recorded in the instrumental record, for example at the Pont de Vilomara study reach the palaeodischarges of these events were 3700-4300 m3/s compared to the 1971 flood, the largest on record, of 2300 m3/s. Five of these floods were dated to the last 3000 years and the three events directly dated by radiocarbon all occurred during cold phases of global climate. Comparison of the palaeoflood record with documentary evidence indicated that one flood, radiocarbon dated to cal. AD 1540-1670, was likely to be the AD 1617 event, the largest flood of the last 700 years. Historical records indicate that this event was caused by rainfall occurring from the 2nd to 6th November and the resultant flooding caused widespread socio-economic impacts including the destruction of at least 389 houses, 22 bridges and 17 water mills. Discharges estimated from palaeoflood records and historical flood marks indicate that the Llobregat (4680 m3/s) and Ter (2700-4500 m3/s) rivers witnessed extreme discharges in comparison to observed floods in the instrumental record (2300 and 2350 m3/s, respectively); whilst further east in the Segre River there was no geomorphic evidence of any flooding of greater magnitude than 2000 m3/s, or the 1982 event.

Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

2017-04-01

Estimation of peak discharge for an assigned return period is a crucial issue in engineering hydrology. It is required for designing and managing hydraulic infrastructure such as dams, reservoirs and bridges. In the UK, the Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) recommends the use of the index flood method to estimate the design flood as the product of a local scale factor (the index flood, IF) and a dimensionless regional growth factor (GF). For gauged catchments the IF is usually estimated as the median annual maximum flood (QMED), while for ungauged catchments it is computed through multiple linear regression models based on a set of morpho-climatic indices of the basin. The GF is estimated by fitting the annual maxima with the generalised logistic distribution (GL) using two methods depending on the record length and the target return period: single-site or pooled analysis. The single site-analysis estimates the GF from the annual maxima of the subject site alone; the pooled analysis uses data from a set of catchments hydrologically similar to the subject site. In this work estimates of floods up to 100-year return period obtained from the FEH approach are compared to those obtained using Grid-to-Grid, a continuous physically-based hydrological model. The model converts rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into river flows by modelling surface/sub-surface runoff, lateral water movements, and snow-pack. It is configured on a 1km2 grid resolution and it uses spatial datasets of topography, soil, and land cover. It was set up in Great Britain and has been evaluated for the period 1960-2014 in forward-mode (i.e. without parameter calibration) using daily meteorological forcing data. The modelled floods with a given return period (5,10, 30, 50, and 100 years) were computed from the modelled discharge annual maxima and compared to the FEH estimates for 100 catchments in Great Britain. Preliminary results suggest that there is a good agreement between modelled and measured floods with a correlation coefficient that ranges from 0.8 for low return periods to 0.65 for the highest. It is shown that model performance is robust and independent of catchment features such as area and mean annual rainfall. The promising results for Great Britain support the aspiration that continuous simulation from large-scale hydrological models, supported by the increasing availability of global weather, climate and hydrological products, could be used to develop robust methods to help engineers estimate design floods in regions with limited gauge data or affected by environmental change.

Improving the analysis of social component of flash-floods risk assessment: Application to urban areas of Castilla y León (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque del Pozo, Jose Maria; Garcia Martin, Juan Antonio; Diez Herrero, Andres

2016-04-01

The increasing evidence of anthropogenic climate change, the respective intensification of extreme events as well as the increase in human exposure to natural hazards and their vulnerability show that the enhancement of strategies on how to reduce disaster risk and promote adaptation to extreme events is critical to increase resilience. Growing economic losses, high numbers of casualties and the disruption of livelihoods in various places of the world, at an even higher rate than the increase of magnitude and frequency of extreme events, underline that the vulnerability of societies exposed is a key aspect to be considered. Social vulnerability characterizes the predisposition of society to be afflicted by hazards such as floods, being flash floods one of the hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk. Despite its importance, social vulnerability is often a neglected aspect of traditional risk assessments which mainly focus on economic and structural measures. The aim of this research is to identify those social characteristics which render people vulnerable to flash flood hazards, and consider whether these characteristics are identifiable as local patterns at regional level. The result of this task is a Social Susceptibility Index (SSI) based on susceptibility profiles of the population per township. These profiles are obtained by Hierarchical Segmentation and Latent Class Analysis of demographic and socio-economic information provided by different public organisms. By adding exposure information to SSI, a Social and Infraestructure Flood Vulnerability Index (SIFVI) is created. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,226 km2). Townships that are included in this study meet two requirements: i) city centres are affected by an area where potential significant flash-flood risk exists (i.e. villages are crossed by rivers with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01); ii) city centres are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability of flooding (as provided by Directive 2007/60/EC of 23 october 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks) acording with the preliminary assessment of flood risk made by water authorities. This analysis of social vulnerability to flash floods means an advance in relation to disaster risk reduction allowing for grouping urban areas with similar resilience. With regard to the above, strengthening of resilience is one of the most important foundation of risk mitigation.

NEW STUDIES OF URBAN FLOOD FREQUENCY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, Vernon B.

1986-01-01

Five reports dealing with flood magnitude and frequency in urban areas in the southeastern United States have been published during the past 2 years by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS). These reports are based on data collected in Tampa and Tallahassee, Florida; Atlanta, Georgia; and several cities in Alabama and Tennessee. Each report contains regression equations useful for estimating flood peaks for selected recurrence intervals at ungauged urban sites. A nationwide study of urban flood characteristics by the USGS published in 1983 contains equations for estimating urban peak discharges for ungauged sites. At the time that the nationwide study was conducted, data from only 35 sites in the southeastern United States were available. The five new reports contain data for 88 additional sites. These new data show that the seven-parameter estimating equations developed in the nationwide study are unbiased and have prediction errors less than those described in the nationwide report.

Flood-frequency prediction methods for unregulated streams of Tennessee, 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Law, George S.; Tasker, Gary D.

2003-01-01

Up-to-date flood-frequency prediction methods for unregulated, ungaged rivers and streams of Tennessee have been developed. Prediction methods include the regional-regression method and the newer region-of-influence method. The prediction methods were developed using stream-gage records from unregulated streams draining basins having from 1 percent to about 30 percent total impervious area. These methods, however, should not be used in heavily developed or storm-sewered basins with impervious areas greater than 10 percent. The methods can be used to estimate 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval floods of most unregulated rural streams in Tennessee. A computer application was developed that automates the calculation of flood frequency for unregulated, ungaged rivers and streams of Tennessee. Regional-regression equations were derived by using both single-variable and multivariable regional-regression analysis. Contributing drainage area is the explanatory variable used in the single-variable equations. Contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, and a climate factor are the explanatory variables used in the multivariable equations. Deleted-residual standard error for the single-variable equations ranged from 32 to 65 percent. Deleted-residual standard error for the multivariable equations ranged from 31 to 63 percent. These equations are included in the computer application to allow easy comparison of results produced by the different methods. The region-of-influence method calculates multivariable regression equations for each ungaged site and recurrence interval using basin characteristics from 60 similar sites selected from the study area. Explanatory variables that may be used in regression equations computed by the region-of-influence method include contributing drainage area, main-channel slope, a climate factor, and a physiographic-region factor. Deleted-residual standard error for the region-of-influence method tended to be only slightly smaller than those for the regional-regression method and ranged from 27 to 62 percent.

Potential Application of Airborne Passive Microwave Observations for Monitoring Inland Flooding Caused by Tropical Cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hood, Robbie E.; Radley, C.D.; LaFontaine, F.J.

2008-01-01

Inland flooding from tropical cyclones can be a significant factor in storm-related deaths in the United States and other countries. Information collected during NASA tropical cyclone field studies suggest surface water and flooding induced by tropical cyclone precipitation can be detected and therefore monitored using passive microwave airborne radiometers. In particular, the 10.7 GHz frequency of the NASA Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) flown on the NASA ER-2 has demonstrated high resolution detection of anomalous surface water and flooding in numerous situations. This presentation will highlight the analysis of three cases utilizing primarily satellite and airborne radiometer data. Radiometer data from the 1998 Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) are utilized to detect surface water during landfalling Hurricane Georges in both the Dominican Republic and Louisiana. A third case is landfalling Tropical Storm Gert in Eastern Mexico during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment in 2005. AMPR data are compared to topographic data and vegetation indices to evaluate the significance of the surface water signature visible in the 10.7 GHz information. The results of this study suggest the benefit of an aircraft 10 GHz radiometer to provide real-time observations of surface water conditions as part of a multi-sensor flood monitoring network.

Use of frequency analysis and the extended streamflow prediction procedure to estimate evacuation dates for the joint-use pool of Pueblo Reservoir, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard; Nickless, R.C.

1994-01-01

Part of the storage space of Pueblo Reservoir consists of a 65,950 acre-foot joint-use pool (JUP) that can be used to provide additional conservation capacity from November 1 to April 14; however, the JUP must be evacuated by April 15 and used only for flood-control capacity until November 1. A study was completed to determine if the JUP possibly could be used for conservation storage for any number of days from April 15 through May 14 under certain hydrologic conditions. The methods of the study were: (1) Frequency analysis of recorded daily mean discharge data for streamflow-gaging stations upstream and downstream from Pueblo Reservoir, and (2) Implementation of the extended streamflow prediction (ESP) procedure for the Arkansas River basin upstream from the reservoir. The frequency analyses enabled estimation of daily discharges at selected exceedance probabilities (EP's), including the 0.01 EP that was used in design of the flood- storage capacity of Pueblo Reservoir. The ESP procedure enabled probabilistic forecasts of inflow volume to the reservoir for April 15 through May 14. Daily discharges derived from the frequency analyses were routed through Pueblo Reservoir to estimate evacuation dates of the JUP for different reservoir inflow volumes; the estimates indicated a relation between the inflow volume and the JUP evacuation date. To apply the study results, only a ESP forecast of the April 15-May 14 reservoir inflow volume is needed. Study results indicate the JUP possibly could be used as late as May 5 depending on the forecast inflow volume.

Techniques for estimating flood hydrographs for ungaged urban watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stricker, V.A.; Sauer, V.B.

1984-01-01

The Clark Method, modified slightly was used to develop a synthetic, dimensionless hydrograph which can be used to estimate flood hydrographs for ungaged urban watersheds. Application of the technique results in a typical (average) flood hydrograph for a given peak discharge. Input necessary to apply the technique is an estimate of basin lagtime and the recurrence interval peak discharge. Equations for this purpose were obtained from a recent nationwide study on flood frequency in urban watersheds. A regression equation was developed which relates flood volumes to drainage area size, basin lagtime, and peak discharge. This equation is useful where storage of floodwater may be a part of design of flood prevention. (USGS)

Study of Extreme Hydrometeorological Events under Consideration of Climate Change in terms of Flood Protection Design Standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, B.-Z.

2012-04-01

A study of Trend and Shift on annual maximum daily data over 500 raingauges with data length of 80 years or longer in the Ohio River Basin U.S. demonstrated a significant increase in variance of the data over time. The area-average increase in standard deviation is 23% for the recent 40 years (1959 - 1998) in comparison with the earlier 40-60 years (1919 or earlier - 1958). This implies that more and more extreme hydrometeorological events such as extreme rainfalls and droughts could be observed in the future years. The centurial flood disaster of August 8-10 2009 in the mid-southern Taiwan caused by Morakot Typhoon and the extraordinary drought lasting from winter 2009 to early summer 2010 wreaking havoc of a vast area of south-west China mainland were two good examples of the extremes. This variation could attribute to climate change. It challenges the hydrologic frequency analysis. Thus, exploration of a robust and reliable approach to precipitation frequency analysis becomes an imminent issue in hydrologic design studies. This paper introduces a novel hydrometeorological approach, the Regional L-moments method (RLM), to rainfall frequency analysis. There are two fatal weaknesses in FA: 1) There is no analytical way to derive a theoretical distribution to best fit the data; 2) The theoretical true value of a frequency such as 50-y or 100-y is unknown forever. The RLM, which is developed based on the order statistics and the concept of hydrometeorological homogeneity, demonstrates unbiasedness of parameter estimates and robust to outliers, and reduces the uncertainties of frequency estimates as well via the real data in Ohio River Basin of the U.S. and in the Taihu Lake Basin of China. Further study indicated that the variation of the frequency estimates such as 10-year, 100-year, 500-year, etc. is not normal as suggested in current textbooks. Actually, the frequency estimates vary asymmetrically from positive skew to negative skew when estimates go through from common frequencies to rare frequencies. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is defined as the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration meteorologically possible for a design watershed or a given storm area at a particular location at a particular time of year, with no allowance made for long-term climate trends (WMO, 2009). The PMP has been widely used by many hydrologists to determine the probable maximum flood (PMF) critical to the design of a variety of hydrological structures and other high profile infrastructures such as nuclear power-generation station with respect to flood-protection, for which a high level safety is required. What is the impact of climate change on PMP estimation? Actually, in the definition of PMP, there is "no allowance made for long-term climate trends" (WMO, 2009). However, when people are talking about impact of climate change on PMP estimation, two things may be taken into account practically: (1) To affect the precipitable water as a result of increase of SST; (2) Effect on the selection of the transposed storm because more extreme storms would occur due to climate change and more potential candidates to be used for storm transposition. The occurrence of a severe rainfall storm could alter the PMP estimates. A good example is the lashing of the Typhoon Morakot of 8 - 10 Aug. 2009 on Taiwan Island that set up new rainfall picture. What is the effect of topography on rainfall is another big issue in PMP estimation. Many observations of precipitation in mountainous areas show a general increase in precipitation with elevation. Practically, the effect of topography on rainfall should be taken into account in PMP estimation and implemented by the storm separation technique. The Step-Duration-Orographic-Intensification-Factor (SDOIF) Method, which was developed based on statistics analysis of extreme rainfalls in the storm area, can practically be used as storm separation technique to decouple the Morakot storm rainfalls into two components, convergence component and orographic component. Then, the convergence component can be transposed in a wider area for PMP estimation at a design location in the East Asia region. At last, this paper provides a clue for the first time on relationship between the frequency analysis and the PMP estimation in terms of hydrologic engineering design studies.

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Increasing severity of damage caused by floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coast (1960-2014), climate change or vulnerability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, Alfredo; Gil, Salvador; Lopez, Francisco; Barriendos, Mariano

2016-04-01

In recent decades, there has been an increase in physical and economic losses (WMO, CRED and UCL, 2014) that raises serious concerns in society. Climate change projections may explain the rise in flood losses; however, these shouldn't be considered yet (Bouwer, 2011). According to IPCC (2014), there is low confidence in anthropogenic climate change affecting the frequency and magnitude of fluvial floods on a global scale. In other words, this increase in flood events is not completely related to the higher frequency of heavy rainfall. To illustrate the aforementioned, a spatial example can be seen in the study area. In the Spanish Mediterranean coast, we see an increase in economic losses within the last 50 years due to flood events (Gil et al., 2014). It seems that the socio-economic growth and the rise of housing construction (Gaja, 2008) have led to an increase in vulnerability and exposure which are mainly responsible for those losses and the increase in severity of flood events (Pérez et al., 2015). Furthermore, this situation will probably become more precarious if some climate forecasts are met [IPCC, 2014; AEMET, 2015], and if the economic model fails to adopt efficient adaptive measures. Therefore, it is interesting to focus attention on social factors either within the present or future scenario in order to minimise the potential consequences and improve the adaptation. The main objective of this work focuses on the study of the evolution of the severity of the floods in the Spanish Mediterranean coast for the period (1960-2015). To do that, a statistical analysis of the data base [Gil et al., 2014; extended to the entire Spanish Mediterranean coast (MEDIFLOOD)] and a multiscale mapping (local, provincial and regional level) of the frequency of these events will take place in order to make comparisons and show spatiotemporal patterns according to the severity events evolution. Preliminary results show some interesting statistically significant relationships between severity and the increase of population and buildings mentioned above. Bibliography: AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología) (2015). Proyecciones Climáticas para el siglo XXI en España. www.aemet.es/es/serviciosclimaticos/cambio_climat Bouwer L.M. (2011). Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 92. Gaja F. (2008). El 'tsunami urbanizador' en el litoral mediterráneo. El ciclo de hiperproducción inmobiliaria 1996-2006. Scripta Nova, 12. Gil S., Pérez A. & Barriendos M. (2014). Increasing vulnerability to flooding in the southern spanish mediterranean coast (1960-2013). In: Hydrological extreme events in historic and prehistoric times. Bonn (Germany). IPCC. (2014) Synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri & L.A. Meyer, eds. Geneva, Switzerland. Pérez-Morales, A., Gil-Guirado, S., & Olcina-Cantos, J. (2015). Housing bubbles and the increase of flood exposure. Failures in flood risk management on the Spanish south-eastern coast (1975-2013). Journal of Flood Risk Management. WMO, CRED and UCL (2014). Atlas of mortality and economic losses from weather, climate and water extremes 1970-2012. Geneva, Switzerland.

Coastal Hazard Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of Erosion and Flooding on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radosavljevic, B.; Lantuit, H.; Overduin, P. P.; Fritz, M.

2015-12-01

Coastal infrastructure, cultural, and archeological sites are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding along permafrost coasts. Amplified warming of the Arctic, sea level rise, lengthening of the open water period, and a predicted increase in frequency of major storms compound these threats. Mitigation necessitates decision-making tools at an appropriate scale. We present a study of coastal erosion combining it with a flooding risk assessment for the culturally important historic settlement on Herschel Island, a UNESCO World Heritage candidate site. The resulting map may help local stakeholders devise management strategies to cope with rapidly changing environmental conditions. We analyzed shoreline movement using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) after digitizing shorelines from 1952, 1970, and 2011. Using these data, forecasts of shoreline positions were made for 20 and 50 years into the future. Flooding risk was assessed using a cost-distance map based on a high-resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) dataset and current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level estimates. Widespread erosion characterizes the study area. The rate of shoreline movement for different periods of the study ranges from -5.5 to 2.7 m·a-1 (mean -0.6 m·a-1). Mean coastal retreat decreased from -0.6 m·a-1 to -0.5 m·a-1, for 1952-1970 and 1970-2000, respectively, and increased to -1.3 m·a-1 in the period 2000-2011. Ice-rich coastal sections, and coastal sections most exposed to wave attack exhibited the highest rates of coastal retreat. The geohazard map resulting from shoreline projections and flood risk analysis indicates that most of the area occupied by the historic settlement is at extreme or very high risk of flooding, and some buildings are vulnerable to coastal erosion. The results of this study indicate a greater threat by coastal flooding than erosion. Our assessment may be applied in other locations where limited data are available.

Overcoming complexities for consistent, continental-scale flood mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Helen; Zaidman, Maxine; Davison, Charlotte

2013-04-01

The EU Floods Directive requires all member states to produce flood hazard maps by 2013. Although flood mapping practices are well developed in Europe, there are huge variations in the scale and resolution of the maps between individual countries. Since extreme flood events are rarely confined to a single country, this is problematic, particularly for the re/insurance industry whose exposures often extend beyond country boundaries. Here, we discuss the challenges of large-scale hydrological and hydraulic modelling, using our experience of developing a 12-country model and set of maps, to illustrate how consistent, high-resolution river flood maps across Europe can be produced. The main challenges addressed include: data acquisition; manipulating the vast quantities of high-resolution data; and computational resources. Our starting point was to develop robust flood-frequency models that are suitable for estimating peak flows for a range of design flood return periods. We used the index flood approach, based on a statistical analysis of historic river flow data pooled on the basis of catchment characteristics. Historical flow data were therefore sourced for each country and collated into a large pan-European database. After a lengthy validation these data were collated into 21 separate analysis zones or regions, grouping smaller river basins according to their physical and climatic characteristics. The very large continental scale basins were each modelled separately on account of their size (e.g. Danube, Elbe, Drava and Rhine). Our methodology allows the design flood hydrograph to be predicted at any point on the river network for a range of return periods. Using JFlow+, JBA's proprietary 2D hydraulic hydrodynamic model, the calculated out-of-bank flows for all watercourses with an upstream drainage area exceeding 50km2 were routed across two different Digital Terrain Models in order to map the extent and depth of floodplain inundation. This generated modelling for a total river length of approximately 250,000km. Such a large-scale, high-resolution modelling exercise is extremely demanding on computational resources and would have been unfeasible without the use of Graphics Processing Units on a network of standard specification gaming computers. Our GPU grid is the world's largest flood-dedicated computer grid. The European river basins were split out into approximately 100 separate hydraulic models and managed individually, although care was taken to ensure flow continuity was maintained between models. The flood hazard maps from the modelling were pieced together using GIS techniques, to provide flood depth and extent information across Europe to a consistent scale and standard. After discussing the methodological challenges, we shall present our flood hazard maps and, from extensive validation work, compare these against historical flow records and observed flood extents.

Evaluation of the expected moments algorithm and a multiple low-outlier test for flood frequency analysis at streamgaging stations in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paretti, Nicholas V.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Cohn, Timothy A.

2014-01-01

Flooding is among the costliest natural disasters in terms of loss of life and property in Arizona, which is why the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude is crucial for proper structural design and accurate floodplain mapping. Current guidelines for flood frequency analysis in the United States are described in Bulletin 17B (B17B), yet since B17B’s publication in 1982 (Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982), several improvements have been proposed as updates for future guidelines. Two proposed updates are the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) to accommodate historical and censored data, and a generalized multiple Grubbs-Beck (MGB) low-outlier test. The current guidelines use a standard Grubbs-Beck (GB) method to identify low outliers, changing the determination of the moment estimators because B17B uses a conditional probability adjustment to handle low outliers while EMA censors the low outliers. B17B and EMA estimates are identical if no historical information or censored or low outliers are present in the peak-flow data. EMA with MGB (EMA-MGB) test was compared to the standard B17B (B17B-GB) method for flood frequency analysis at 328 streamgaging stations in Arizona. The methods were compared using the relative percent difference (RPD) between annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), goodness-of-fit assessments, random resampling procedures, and Monte Carlo simulations. The AEPs were calculated and compared using both station skew and weighted skew. Streamgaging stations were classified by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) qualification codes, used to denote historical and censored peak-flow data, to better understand the effect that nonstandard flood information has on the flood frequency analysis for each method. Streamgaging stations were also grouped according to geographic flood regions and analyzed separately to better understand regional differences caused by physiography and climate. The B17B-GB and EMA-MGB RPD-boxplot results showed that the median RPDs across all streamgaging stations for the 10-, 1-, and 0.2-percent AEPs, computed using station skew, were approximately zero. As the AEP flow estimates decreased (that is, from 10 to 0.2 percent AEP) the variability in the RPDs increased, indicating that the AEP flow estimate was greater for EMA-MGB when compared to B17B-GB. There was only one RPD greater than 100 percent for the 10- and 1-percent AEP estimates, whereas 19 RPDs exceeded 100 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP. At streamgaging stations with low-outlier data, historical peak-flow data, or both, RPDs ranged from −84 to 262 percent for the 0.2-percent AEP flow estimate. When streamgaging stations were separated by the presence of historical peak-flow data (that is, no low outliers or censored peaks) or by low outlier peak-flow data (no historical data), the results showed that RPD variability was greatest for the 0.2-AEP flow estimates, indicating that the treatment of historical and (or) low-outlier data was different between methods and that method differences were most influential when estimating the less probable AEP flows (1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent). When regional skew information was weighted with the station skew, B17B-GB estimates were generally higher than the EMA-MGB estimates for any given AEP. This was related to the different regional skews and mean square error used in the weighting procedure for each flood frequency analysis. The B17B-GB weighted skew analysis used a more positive regional skew determined in USGS Water Supply Paper 2433 (Thomas and others, 1997), while the EMA-MGB analysis used a more negative regional skew with a lower mean square error determined from a Bayesian generalized least squares analysis. Regional groupings of streamgaging stations reflected differences in physiographic and climatic characteristics. Potentially influential low flows (PILFs) were more prevalent in arid regions of the State, and generally AEP flows were larger with EMA-MGB than with B17B-GB for gaging stations with PILFs. In most cases EMA-MGB curves would fit the largest floods more accurately than B17B-GB. In areas of the State with more baseflow, such as along the Mogollon Rim and the White Mountains, streamgaging stations generally had fewer PILFs and more positive skews, causing estimated AEP flows to be larger with B17B-GB than with EMA-MGB. The effect of including regional skew was similar for all regions, and the observed pattern was increasingly greater B17B-GB flows (more negative RPDs) with each decreasing AEP quantile. A variation on a goodness-of-fit test statistic was used to describe each method’s ability to fit the largest floods. The mean absolute percent difference between the measured peak flows and the log-Pearson Type 3 (LP3)-estimated flows, for each method, was averaged over the 90th, 75th, and 50th percentiles of peak-flow data at each site. In most percentile subsets, EMA-MGB on average had smaller differences (1 to 3 percent) between the observed and fitted value, suggesting that the EMA-MGB-LP3 distribution is fitting the observed peak-flow data more precisely than B17B-GB. The smallest EMA-MGB percent differences occurred for the greatest 10 percent (90th percentile) of the peak-flow data. When stations were analyzed by USGS NWIS peak flow qualification code groups, the stations with historical peak flows and no low outliers had average percent differences as high as 11 percent greater for B17B-GB, indicating that EMA-MGB utilized the historical information to fit the largest observed floods more accurately. A resampling procedure was used in which 1,000 random subsamples were drawn, each comprising one-half of the observed data. An LP3 distribution was fit to each subsample using B17B-GB and EMA-MGB methods, and the predicted 1-percent AEP flows were compared to those generated from distributions fit to the entire dataset. With station skew, the two methods were similar in the median percent difference, but with weighted skew EMA-MGB estimates were generally better. At two gages where B17B-GB appeared to perform better, a large number of peak flows were deemed to be PILFs by the MGB test, although they did not appear to depart significantly from the trend of the data (step or dogleg appearance). At two gages where EMA-MGB performed better, the MGB identified several PILFs that were affecting the fitted distribution of the B17B-GB method. Monte Carlo simulations were run for the LP3 distribution using different skews and with different assumptions about the expected number of historical peaks. The primary benefit of running Monte Carlo simulations is that the underlying distribution statistics are known, meaning that the true 1-percent AEP is known. The results showed that EMA-MGB performed as well or better in situations where the LP3 distribution had a zero or positive skew and historical information. When the skew for the LP3 distribution was negative, EMA-MGB performed significantly better than B17B-GB and EMA-MGB estimates were less biased by more closely estimating the true 1-percent AEP for 1, 2, and 10 historical flood scenarios.

A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

PubMed Central

Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

2016-01-01

Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

The influence of controlled floods on fine sediment storage in debris fan-affected canyons of the Colorado River basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Erich R.; Grams, Paul E.; Schmidt, John C.; Hazel, Joseph E.; Alexander, Jason S.; Kaplinski, Matt

2014-01-01

Prior to the construction of large dams on the Green and Colorado Rivers, annual floods aggraded sandbars in lateral flow-recirculation eddies with fine sediment scoured from the bed and delivered from upstream. Flows greater than normal dam operations may be used to mimic this process in an attempt to increase time-averaged sandbar size. These controlled floods may rebuild sandbars, but sediment deficit conditions downstream from the dams restrict the frequency that controlled floods produce beneficial results. Here, we integrate complimentary, long-term monitoring data sets from the Colorado River in Marble and Grand Canyons downstream from Glen Canyon dam and the Green River in the Canyon of Lodore downstream from Flaming Gorge dam. Since the mid-1990s, several controlled floods have occurred in these canyon rivers. These controlled floods scour fine sediment from the bed and build sandbars in eddies, thus increasing channel relief. These changes are short-lived, however, as interflood dam operations erode sandbars within several months to years. Controlled flood response and interflood changes in bed elevation are more variable in Marble Canyon and Grand Canyon, likely reflecting more variable fine sediment supply and stronger transience in channel bed sediment storage. Despite these differences, neither system shows a trend in fine-sediment storage during the period in which controlled floods were monitored. These results demonstrate that controlled floods build eddy sandbars and increase channel relief for short interflood periods, and this response may be typical in other dam-influenced canyon rivers. The degree to which these features persist depends on the frequency of controlled floods, but careful consideration of sediment supply is necessary to avoid increasing the long-term sediment deficit.

Combining Empirical and Stochastic Models for Extreme Floods Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zemzami, M.; Benaabidate, L.

2013-12-01

Hydrological models can be defined as physical, mathematical or empirical. The latter class uses mathematical equations independent of the physical processes involved in the hydrological system. The linear regression and Gradex (Gradient of Extreme values) are classic examples of empirical models. However, conventional empirical models are still used as a tool for hydrological analysis by probabilistic approaches. In many regions in the world, watersheds are not gauged. This is true even in developed countries where the gauging network has continued to decline as a result of the lack of human and financial resources. Indeed, the obvious lack of data in these watersheds makes it impossible to apply some basic empirical models for daily forecast. So we had to find a combination of rainfall-runoff models in which it would be possible to create our own data and use them to estimate the flow. The estimated design floods would be a good choice to illustrate the difficulties facing the hydrologist for the construction of a standard empirical model in basins where hydrological information is rare. The construction of the climate-hydrological model, which is based on frequency analysis, was established to estimate the design flood in the Anseghmir catchments, Morocco. The choice of using this complex model returns to its ability to be applied in watersheds where hydrological information is not sufficient. It was found that this method is a powerful tool for estimating the design flood of the watershed and also other hydrological elements (runoff, volumes of water...).The hydrographic characteristics and climatic parameters were used to estimate the runoff, water volumes and design flood for different return periods.

A restoration framework to build coastal wetland resiliency

EPA Science Inventory

An increase in the frequency and intensity of storms and flooding events are adversely impacting coastal wetlands. Coastal wetlands provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including spec...

Catchment scale afforestation for mitigating flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Mhari; Quinn, Paul; Bathurst, James; Birkinshaw, Stephen

2016-04-01

After the 2013-14 floods in the UK there were calls to 'forest the uplands' as a solution to reducing flood risk across the nation. At present, 1 in 6 homes in Britain are at risk of flooding and current EU legislation demands a sustainable, 'nature-based solution'. However, the role of forests as a natural flood management technique remains highly controversial, due to a distinct lack of robust evidence into its effectiveness in reducing flood risk during extreme events. SHETRAN, physically-based spatially-distributed hydrological models of the Irthing catchment and Wark forest sub-catchments (northern England) have been developed in order to test the hypothesis of the effect trees have on flood magnitude. The advanced physically-based models have been designed to model scale-related responses from 1, through 10, to 100km2, a first study of the extent to which afforestation and woody debris runoff attenuation features (RAFs) may help to mitigate floods at the full catchment scale (100-1000 km2) and on a national basis. Furthermore, there is a need to analyse the extent to which land management practices, and the installation of nature-based RAFs, such as woody debris dams, in headwater catchments can attenuate flood-wave movement, and potentially reduce downstream flood risk. The impacts of riparian planting and the benefits of adding large woody debris of several designs and on differing sizes of channels has also been simulated using advanced hydrodynamic (HiPIMS) and hydrological modelling (SHETRAN). With the aim of determining the effect forestry may have on flood frequency, 1000 years of generated rainfall data representative of current conditions has been used to determine the difference between current land-cover, different distributions of forest cover and the defining scenarios - complete forest removal and complete afforestation of the catchment. The simulations show the percentage of forestry required to have a significant impact on mitigating downstream flood risk at sub-catchment and catchment scale. Key words: Flood peak, nature-based solutions, forest hydrology, hydrological modelling, SHETRAN, flood frequency, flood magnitude, land-cover change, upland afforestation.

Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Hydrological Events in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Abbaspour, Karim C.

2016-04-01

Estimating magnitude and occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events is required for taking preventive remedial actions against the impact of climate change on the management of water resources. Examples include: characterization of extreme rainfall events to predict urban runoff, determination of river flows, and the likely severity of drought events during the design life of a water project. In recent years California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing water stress, economic loss, and an increase in wildfires. In this paper we describe development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) and demonstrate its use in the analysis of dry and wet periods in California for the years 2020-2050 and compare the results with the historic period 1975-2005. CCT provides four modules to: i) manage big databases such as those of Global Climate Models (GCMs), ii) make bias correction using observed local climate data , iii) interpolate gridded climate data to finer resolution, and iv) calculate continuous dry- and wet-day periods based on rainfall, temperature, and soil moisture for analysis of drought and flooding risks. We used bias-corrected meteorological data of five GCMs for extreme CO2 emission scenario rcp8.5 for California to analyze the trend of extreme hydrological events. The findings indicate that frequency of dry period will increase in center and southern parts of California. The assessment of the number of wet days and the frequency of wet periods suggests an increased risk of flooding in north and north-western part of California, especially in the coastal strip. Keywords: Climate Change Toolkit (CCT), Extreme Hydrological Events, California

Geospatial Analysis for Flood-Risk Management, Resilience, and US Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinter, N.; Hui, R.; Conrad, D. R.; Schaefer, K.

2016-12-01

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was established in 1968 to curtail unfettered development on US floodplains and spiraling taxpayer expenditures for disaster relief. Currently NFIP underwrites >5 million policies, providing >1.25 trillion in coverage, and taking in >3.5 billion in annual premiums. Cumulative flood-damage payouts to date exceed premiums collected by >$20 billion. Our group has obtained nationwide databases of NFIP flood-damage claims back to 1972, annual policies since 1994, and selective Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) repetitive losses. Attributes include property, claims, and loss characteristics. Other attributes were stripped to maintain policyholder anonymity. At present, locations are to the nearest 0.1° lat/long, zip code, and by community. We combine NFIP data with GIS information from a variety of other sources. Over the past 44 years, 1,625,470 non-zero flood claims are documented. Numbers of claims and losses have increased over time, even with extreme events (Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy) excluded. Flood losses have occurred within 100-year floodplains (1% annual exceedance), in coastal hazard zones, and 25% of claims occur outside of mapped flood-hazard areas. We hypothesize that a many losses outside of FEMA's designated Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) correlate with (1) outdated map panels, (2) contrasting levels of enforcement and mitigation by state. Other distributed flood losses represent stormwater/drainage damage. Claim rates substantially exceed 1%, both in and outside the SFHA, and for "pre-FIRM" and "post-FIRM" structures. This suggests that ≥100-year floods are occurring more frequently than statutory frequencies suggest. For US homeowners, this suggests that flood insurance is a good deal in a variety of settings. The NFIP data analyzed here contrasts with our group's previous, largely model-driven research. Such empirical flood data exclude model assumptions, but add dizzying array of human and political factors into the resulting spatial and temporal patterns. Parsing out the hydrologic, climatic, social, and political factors influencing flood risk and resilience is crucial for sound management of NFIP and other programs. The US Congress will debate reauthorization and possible revision of NFIP in 2017.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Choluteca, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Choluteca that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Choluteca and Rio Iztoca. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Choluteca as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Choluteca and Rio Iztoca at Choluteca were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Choluteca at Choluteca is 4,620 cubic meters per second, which is the drainage-area-adjusted weighted-average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Choluteca en Puente Choluteca. One discharge, 4,913 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 17 years of peak discharge record for the gage, and the other, 2,650 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges at the gage is 4,530 cubic meters per second. The 50-year-flood discharge for the study area reach of Rio Choluteca was estimated by multiplying the weighted discharge at the gage by the ratio of the drainage areas upstream from the two locations. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Iztoca, which was estimated from the regression equation, is 430 cubic meters per second.

A comparison of regional flood frequency analysis approaches in a simulation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, D.; Laio, F.

2016-07-01

Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve at ungauged (or scarcely gauged) sites. Different RFA approaches exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest, but it is not clear in the literature if a specific method systematically outperforms the others. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison by building up a virtual environment based on synthetically generated data. The considered regional approaches include: (i) a unique regional curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model where homogeneous subregions are determined through cluster analysis; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially smooth estimation procedure where the parameters of the regional model vary continuously along the space. Virtual environments are generated considering different patterns of heterogeneity, including step change and smooth variations. If the region is heterogeneous, with the parent distribution changing continuously within the region, the spatially smooth regional approach outperforms the others, with overall errors 10-50% lower than the other methods. In the case of a step-change, the spatially smooth and clustering procedures perform similarly if the heterogeneity is moderate, while clustering procedures work better when the step-change is severe. To extend our findings, an extensive sensitivity analysis has been performed to investigate the effect of sample length, number of virtual stations, return period of the predicted quantile, variability of the scale parameter of the parent distribution, number of predictor variables and different parent distribution. Overall, the spatially smooth approach appears as the most robust approach as its performances are more stable across different patterns of heterogeneity, especially when short records are considered.

Using SERC for creating and publishing student generated hydrology instruction materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merwade, V.; Rajib, A.; Ruddell, B.; Fox, S.

2016-12-01

Hydrology instruction typically involves teaching of the hydrologic cycle and the processes associated with it such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff generation and hydrograph analysis. With the availability of observed and remotely sensed data in public domain, there is an opportunity to incorporate place-based learning in hydrology classrooms. However, it is not always easy and possible for an instructor to complement an existing hydrology course with new material that requires both time and technical expertise, which the instructor may not have. The work presented here describes an effort where students created the data and modeling driven instruction materials as part of their class assignment for a hydrology course at Purdue University. Students in the class were divided into groups, and each group was assigned a topic such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, streamflow, flow duration curve and flood frequency analysis. Each of the student groups was then instructed to produce an instruction material showing ways to extract/process relevant data and perform some analysis for an area with specific land use characteristic. The student contributions were then organized into learning units such that someone can do a flow duration curve analysis or flood frequency analysis and see how it changes for rural area versus urban area. Science Education Resource Center (SERC) is used as a platform to publish and share these instruction materials so it can be used as-is or through modification by any instructor or student in relevant coursework anywhere in the world.

Estimating generalized skew of the log-Pearson Type III distribution for annual peak floods in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oberg, Kevin A.; Mades, Dean M.

1987-01-01

Four techniques for estimating generalized skew in Illinois were evaluated: (1) a generalized skew map of the US; (2) an isoline map; (3) a prediction equation; and (4) a regional-mean skew. Peak-flow records at 730 gaging stations having 10 or more annual peaks were selected for computing station skews. Station skew values ranged from -3.55 to 2.95, with a mean of -0.11. Frequency curves computed for 30 gaging stations in Illinois using the variations of the regional-mean skew technique are similar to frequency curves computed using a skew map developed by the US Water Resources Council (WRC). Estimates of the 50-, 100-, and 500-yr floods computed for 29 of these gaging stations using the regional-mean skew techniques are within the 50% confidence limits of frequency curves computed using the WRC skew map. Although the three variations of the regional-mean skew technique were slightly more accurate than the WRC map, there is no appreciable difference between flood estimates computed using the variations of the regional-mean technique and flood estimates computed using the WRC skew map. (Peters-PTT)

Response of extreme floods in the southwestern United States to climatic variations in the late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ely, Lisa L.

1997-07-01

A regional synthesis of paleoflood chronologies on rivers in Arizona and southern Utah reveals that the largest floods over the last 5000 years cluster into distinct time periods that are related to regional and global climatic fluctuations. The flood chronologies were constructed using fine-grained slackwater deposits that accumulate in protected areas along the margins of bedrock canyons and selectively preserve evidence of the largest events. High-magnitude floods were frequent on rivers throughout the region from 5000 to 3600 14C yrs BP (dendrocalibrated age = 3800-2200 BC) and increased again after 2200 BP (400 BC), with particularly prominent peaks in magnitude and frequency around 1100-900 BP (AD 900-1100) and after 500 yrs BP (AD 1400). In contrast, the periods 3600-2200 BP (2200-400 BC) and 800-600 yrs BP (1200-1400 AD) are marked by sharp decreases in the occurrence of large floods on these rivers. In the modern record, storms that generate large floods (≥ 10-year) in the region fall into three categories: (1) winter North Pacific frontal storms; (2) late-summer and fall storms that draw in moisture from recurved Pacific tropical cyclones; and (3) summer storms, mainly convective thunderstorms. Winter storms and tropical cyclones are associated with the most severe floods on the rivers in this study, and are the most probable causes of the paleofloods over the last 5000 years. Floods from both winter storms and tropical cyclones occur when deep mid-latitude troughs steer storm systems into the region. Composite anomaly maps of daily 700-mbar heights indicate that these floods are associated with a low-pressure anomaly off the California coast and a high-pressure anomaly over the Aleutians or Gulf of Alaska. A strong connection exists between the negative phase of the Southern Oscillation Index (often associated with El Nin˜o conditions) and the large floods associated with winter storms and tropical cyclones. The paleoflood records confirm the existence of centennial-scale variations in the conditions conducive to the occurrence of extreme floods and flood-generating storms in this region. The episodes with an increased frequency of high-magnitude floods coincide with periods of cool, wet climate in the western U.S., whereas warm intervals, such as the Medieval Warm Period, are times of dramatic decreases in the number of large floods. A positive relationship between the paleofloods and long-term variations in the frequency of El Nin˜o events is evident over the last 1000 years. This relationship continues over at least the last 3000 years with warm coastal sea-surface temperatures indicative of El Nin˜o-like conditions.

Comparisons of two moments‐based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

England, John F.; Salas, José D.; Jarrett, Robert D.

2003-01-01

The expected moments algorithm (EMA) [Cohn et al., 1997] and the Bulletin 17B [Interagency Committee on Water Data, 1982] historical weighting procedure (B17H) for the log Pearson type III distribution are compared by Monte Carlo computer simulation for cases in which historical and/or paleoflood data are available. The relative performance of the estimators was explored for three cases: fixed‐threshold exceedances, a fixed number of large floods, and floods generated from a different parent distribution. EMA can effectively incorporate four types of historical and paleoflood data: floods where the discharge is explicitly known, unknown discharges below a single threshold, floods with unknown discharge that exceed some level, and floods with discharges described in a range. The B17H estimator can utilize only the first two types of historical information. Including historical/paleoflood data in the simulation experiments significantly improved the quantile estimates in terms of mean square error and bias relative to using gage data alone. EMA performed significantly better than B17H in nearly all cases considered. B17H performed as well as EMA for estimating X100 in some limited fixed‐threshold exceedance cases. EMA performed comparatively much better in other fixed‐threshold situations, for the single large flood case, and in cases when estimating extreme floods equal to or greater than X500. B17H did not fully utilize historical information when the historical period exceeded 200 years. Robustness studies using GEV‐simulated data confirmed that EMA performed better than B17H. Overall, EMA is preferred to B17H when historical and paleoflood data are available for flood frequency analysis.

Comparisons of two moments-based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, John F.; Salas, José D.; Jarrett, Robert D.

2003-09-01

The expected moments algorithm (EMA) [, 1997] and the Bulletin 17B [, 1982] historical weighting procedure (B17H) for the log Pearson type III distribution are compared by Monte Carlo computer simulation for cases in which historical and/or paleoflood data are available. The relative performance of the estimators was explored for three cases: fixed-threshold exceedances, a fixed number of large floods, and floods generated from a different parent distribution. EMA can effectively incorporate four types of historical and paleoflood data: floods where the discharge is explicitly known, unknown discharges below a single threshold, floods with unknown discharge that exceed some level, and floods with discharges described in a range. The B17H estimator can utilize only the first two types of historical information. Including historical/paleoflood data in the simulation experiments significantly improved the quantile estimates in terms of mean square error and bias relative to using gage data alone. EMA performed significantly better than B17H in nearly all cases considered. B17H performed as well as EMA for estimating X100 in some limited fixed-threshold exceedance cases. EMA performed comparatively much better in other fixed-threshold situations, for the single large flood case, and in cases when estimating extreme floods equal to or greater than X500. B17H did not fully utilize historical information when the historical period exceeded 200 years. Robustness studies using GEV-simulated data confirmed that EMA performed better than B17H. Overall, EMA is preferred to B17H when historical and paleoflood data are available for flood frequency analysis.

Extreme flood event reconstruction spanning the last century in the El Bibane Lagoon (southeastern Tunisia): a multi-proxy approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Affouri, Aida; Dezileau, Laurent; Kallel, Nejib

2017-06-01

Climate models project that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will increase the frequency and the severity of some extreme weather events. The flood events represent a major risk for populations and infrastructures settled on coastal lowlands. Recent studies of lagoon sediments have enhanced our knowledge on extreme hydrological events such as palaeo-storms and on their relation with climate change over the last millennium. However, few studies have been undertaken to reconstruct past flood events from lagoon sediments. Here, the past flood activity was investigated using a multi-proxy approach combining sedimentological and geochemical analysis of surfaces sediments from a southeastern Tunisian catchment in order to trace the origin of sediment deposits in the El Bibane Lagoon. Three sediment sources were identified: marine, fluvial and aeolian. When applying this multi-proxy approach on core BL12-10, recovered from the El Bibane Lagoon, we can see that finer material, a high content of the clay and silt, and a high content of the elemental ratios (Fe / Ca and Ti / Ca) characterise the sedimentological signature of the palaeo-flood levels identified in the lagoonal sequence. For the last century, which is the period covered by the BL12-10 short core, three palaeo-flood events were identified. The age of these flood events have been determined by 210Pb and 137Cs chronology and give ages of AD 1995 ± 6, 1970 ± 9 and 1945 ± 9. These results show a good temporal correlation with historical flood events recorded in southern Tunisia in the last century (AD 1932, 1969, 1979 and 1995). Our finding suggests that reconstruction of the history of the hydrological extreme events during the upper Holocene is possible in this location through the use of the sedimentary archives.

On the variability of cold region flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, Bettina; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

2016-03-01

Cold region hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with both climate and the cryosphere. Improving knowledge on that complexity is essential to determine drivers of extreme events and to predict changes under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for cold region flooding where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on high flows. This study explores changes in the magnitude and the timing of streamflow in 18 Swedish Sub-Arctic catchments over their full record periods available and a common period (1990-2013). The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in several hydrological signatures (e.g. annual maximum daily flow, mean summer flow, snowmelt onset). Further, trends in the flood frequency were determined by fitting an extreme value type I (Gumbel) distribution to test selected flood percentiles for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Results highlight shifts from snowmelt-dominated to rainfall-dominated flow regimes with all significant trends (at the 5% significance level) pointing toward (1) lower magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest widespread permafrost thawing and are supported by increasing trends in annual minimum daily flows. Trends in selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the full periods of record (significant for only four catchments), while trends were variable over the common period of data among the catchments. An uncertainty analysis emphasizes that the observed trends are highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional hydrological response pattern could be determined suggesting that catchment response to regionally consistent changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

Monograph for using paleoflood data in Water Resources Applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, R.E.; Jarrett, R.D.

2004-01-01

The Environmental and Water Resources Institute (EWRI) Technical Committee on Surface Water Hydrology is sponsoring a Task Committee on Paleoflood Hydrology to prepare a monograph entitled, "Use of Paleoflood and Historical Data in Water Resources Applications." This paper introduces the subject of paleoflood hydrology and discusses the topics, which are expected to be included in the monograph. The procedure for preparing and reviewing the monograph will also be discussed. The paleoflood hydrology monograph will include a discussion of types of hydrologic and paleoflood data, paleostage indicators, flood chronology, modeling methods, interpretation issues, water resources applications and case studies, and research needs. Paleoflood data collection and analysis techniques will be presented, and various applications in water-resources investigations will be provided. An overview of several flood frequency analysis approaches, which consider historical and paleoflood data along with systematic streamflow records, will be presented. The monograph is scheduled for completion and publication in 2001. Copyright ASCE 2004.

The flood of 2011 in the lower Chao Phraya valley, Thailand: Study of a long-duration flood through satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liew, Soo Chin; Gupta, Avijit; Chia, Aik Song; Ang, Wu Chye

2016-06-01

The paper illustrates application of satellite images for studying the anatomy of a long-duration, extensive, and slow flood on the Chao Phraya River in 2011 that inundated Bangkok in its lower reach. The spread of floods in the valley was mapped with MODIS, month by month, from July 2011 to February 2012. A subsampled WorldView-2 mosaic was used to observe part of the valley in detail. The flood in Bangkok was studied with four higher-resolution images from Spot 4, WorldView-2, and GeoEye-1 satellites. We suspect that the floodwaters jumped the banks of the Chao Phraya south of Chai Nat, and then travelled overland and along river channels. The overland passage made it difficult to protect settlements. We also studied sedimentation from the images of this shallow overland flow across the country, which was complicated by the presence of preexisting embankments, other anthropogenic structures, and smaller stream channels. This is a descriptive study but it highlights the nature of flooding that is likely to be repeated in this low flat valley from high rainfall. The pattern of flooding was similar to that of a previous large flood in 1996 recorded in a SPOT 2 image. These floods impact Bangkok periodically, a city of about 10 million people, which started on a levee in a low flat delta, then expanded into backswamps, and is marked with local depressions from groundwater extraction. These slow extensive floods can be mapped from satellite images and properly recorded as an early step in analysis of large floods. Mapping of such floods on ground is logistically impossible. Slow, extensive, and long-lasting floods affect lower valleys and deltas of a number of major rivers, impacting agricultural fields and large populations. These floods are especially disastrous for cities located on low deltas. We submit that basic exercises on satellite images provide valuable introductory information for understanding geomorphology of such floods, and also for structuring plans for flood amelioration. Satellite images at very high resolutions, also used in this study, provide complimentary data to mapping and ground observation. Basin environments that are inundated by large shallow extensive floods are not unusual. In future, climate change is expected to raise the frequency of floods in lower parts of a number of river valleys and deltas, so that for such an environment slow extensive floods may become common and need to be studied. In that sense this is a template for studying large slow floods, arguably more frequent in future.

Hydroclimatology of the 2008 Midwest floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budikova, D.; Coleman, J. S. M.; Strope, S. A.; Austin, A.

2010-12-01

The late spring/early summer flooding that occurred in the American Midwest between May and June 2008 resulted from a combination of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that supported a steady influx of moisture into the area. A low pressure system centered over the central-western United States steered a strong jet and associated storms along its eastern edge from the west to southwest and an anomalously strong Great Plains Low Level Jet brought continuous warm and moist air into the area from the Gulf of Mexico into the area. We examine and quantify here the impact these circulation patterns had on the hydroclimatology of the Midwest highlighting the magnitude, frequency, geographic distribution, and temporal evolution of precipitation that ultimately magnified the flooding. Historical precipitation records were used to assess the regional rainfall characteristics at various geographic and time scales. Five distinct hydroclimatic characteristics contributed to the definition of the 2008 flood including persistent high surface soil moisture conditions prior to flooding exasperated by anomalously high rainfall, extreme rainfall totals covering extensive areas, increased frequency of shorter-term, smaller-magnitude events, persistent multiday heavy precipitation events, and extreme flood-producing rain storms. The major flooding lasted for approximately 24 days and most greatly impacted the state of Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and central Indiana. Its occurrence during the May-June period makes the event especially unusual for this region.

The Tale of Flooding over the Central United States: Not Bigger but More Frequent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mallakpour, I.; Villarini, G.

2014-12-01

Flooding over the central United States is responsible for large societal and economic impacts, quantifiable in tens of fatalities and billions of dollars in damage. Because of these large repercussions, it is of paramount importance to examine whether the magnitude and/or frequency of flood events have been changing over the most recent decades. Here we address this research question using annual and seasonal maximum daily streamflow records from 774 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stations over the central United States (the study area includes North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan). The focus is on "long" records (i.e., at least 50 years of data) ending no earlier than 2011. Analyses are performed using block-maximum and peak-over-threshold approaches. We find limited evidence suggesting increasing or decreasing trends in the magnitude of flood peaks over this area. On the other hand, there is much stronger evidence of increasing frequency of flood events. Therefore, our results support the notion that it is not so much that the largest flood peaks are getting larger, but rather that we have been experiencing a larger number of flood events every year. By examining the rainfall records, we are able to link these increasing trends to similar patterns in heavy rainfall over the region.

Hydrological states and the resilience of deltaic forested wetlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keim, R.; Allen, S. T.

2017-12-01

The flooding regime constitutes a set of chronic disturbances that are largely responsible for ecosystem structure. However, disturbances do not always constitute stresses to plants that survive because of adaptations to flooded conditions. We examine baldcypress-water tupelo forested wetlands in the delta of the Mississippi River as a case study in mechanisms by which hydrologic change shapes wetland ecosystem change, supported by experimental evidence from remote sensing, tree-ring and other field studies, and meta-analysis across the literature. Decreased hydrologic variability caused by water control structures has reduced the frequency of flood events that increase growth of baldcypress and favor its establishment by reducing competition from other species. Hydrologic modifications that lead to semi-permanent, stagnant flooding constitute semi-permanent disturbance that prevents regeneration of any trees, reduces growth of established trees, and reduces stand density by causing mortality of some trees. However, baldcypress trees in low-density stands appear to be generally adapted for long-term survival in stagnant conditions. Thus, initial decreases in stand density after impoundment do not necessarily portend continued conversion away from forest because reduced inter-tree competition is a negative feedback on mortality. Overall, a natural hydrologic regime with high variability in riverine flooding favors denser stands with greater diversity of tree species, and the present, controlled hydrologic regime that has largely eliminated riverine flooding favors open stands. Sea-level rise will increase salinity that quickly leads to forest conversion to marsh, but will also increase stagnant, freshwater flooding further inland. These drivers of hydrologic change reduce carbon assimilation by forests, both by reduced stand-level productivity and decreased forested area.

Braided river flow and invasive vegetation dynamics in the Southern Alps, New Zealand.

PubMed

Caruso, Brian S; Edmondson, Laura; Pithie, Callum

2013-07-01

In mountain braided rivers, extreme flow variability, floods and high flow pulses are fundamental elements of natural flow regimes and drivers of floodplain processes, understanding of which is essential for management and restoration. This study evaluated flow dynamics and invasive vegetation characteristics and changes in the Ahuriri River, a free-flowing braided, gravel-bed river in the Southern Alps of New Zealand's South Island. Sixty-seven flow metrics based on indicators of hydrologic alteration and environmental flow components (extreme low flows, low flows, high flow pulses, small floods and large floods) were analyzed using a 48-year flow record. Changes in the areal cover of floodplain and invasive vegetation classes and patch characteristics over 20 years (1991-2011) were quantified using five sets of aerial photographs, and the correlation between flow metrics and cover changes were evaluated. The river exhibits considerable hydrologic variability characteristic of mountain braided rivers, with large variation in floods and other flow regime metrics. The flow regime, including flood and high flow pulses, has variable effects on floodplain invasive vegetation, and creates dynamic patch mosaics that demonstrate the concepts of a shifting mosaic steady state and biogeomorphic succession. As much as 25 % of the vegetation cover was removed by the largest flood on record (570 m(3)/s, ~50-year return period), with preferential removal of lupin and less removal of willow. However, most of the vegetation regenerated and spread relatively quickly after floods. Some flow metrics analyzed were highly correlated with vegetation cover, and key metrics included the peak magnitude of the largest flood, flood frequency, and time since the last flood in the interval between photos. These metrics provided a simple multiple regression model of invasive vegetation cover in the aerial photos evaluated. Our analysis of relationships among flow regimes and invasive vegetation cover has implications for braided rivers impacted by hydroelectric power production, where increases in invasive vegetation cover are typically greater than in unimpacted rivers.

Historical floods in the Dutch Rhine Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaser, R.; Stangl, H.

Historical records provide direct information about the climatic impact on society. Especially great natural disasters such as river floods have been for long attracting the attention of humankind. Time series for flood development on the Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn/Lek and IJssel in the Dutch Rhine Delta are presented in this paper. In the case of the Waal it is even possible to compare historical flood frequencies based on documentary data with the recent development reconstructed from standardized instrumental measurements. In brief, we will also discuss various parameters concerning the structure of the flood series and the "human dimension" of natural disaster, i.e. the vulnerability of society when facing natural disasters.

Understanding flood risk sensitivity and uncertainty in a subcatchment of the Thames River (United Kingdom)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theofanidi, Sofia; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Clark, Joanna

2017-04-01

Floods are a global threat to social, economic and environmental development and there is a likelihood, that they could occur more frequently in the future due to climatic change. The severity of their impacts, which can last for years, has led to the urgent need for local communities and national authorities to develop flood warning systems for a better flood preparedness and emergency response. The flood warning systems often rely on hydrological forecasting tools to predict the hydrological response of a watershed before or during a flood event. Hydrological models have been substantially upgraded since the first use of hydrographs and the use of simple conceptual models. Hydrodynamic and hydraulic routing enables the spatial and temporal prediction of flow rates (peak discharges) and water levels. Moreover, the hydrodynamic modeling in 2D permits the estimation of the flood inundation area. This can be particularly useful because the flood zones can provide essential information about the flood risk and the flood damage. In this study, we use a hydrodynamic model which can simulate water levels and river flows in open channel conditions. The model can incorporate the effect of several river structures in the flood modeling process, such as the existence of bridges and weirs. The flood routing method is based on the solution of continuity and energy momentum equations. In addition, the floodplain inundation modeling which is based on the solution of shallow water equations along the channel's banks, will be used for the mapping of flood extent. A GIS interface will serve as a database, including high resolution topography, vector layers of river network, gauging stations, land use and land cover, geology and soil information. The flood frequency analysis, together with historical records on flood warnings, will enable the understanding on the flow regimes and the selection of particular flood events for modeling. One dimensional and two dimensional simulations of the flood events will follow, using simple hydrological boundary conditions. The sensitivity testing of the model, will permit to assess which parameters have the potential to alter significantly the peak discharge during the flood, flood water levels and flood inundation extent. Assessing the model's sensitivity and uncertainty, contributes to the improvement of the flood risk knowledge. The area of study is a subcatchment of the River Thames in the southern part of the United Kingdom. The Thames with its tributaries, support a wide range of social, economic and recreational activities. In addition, the historical and environmental importance of the Thames valley highlights the need for a sustainable flood mitigation planning which includes the better understanding of the flood mechanisms and flood risks.

Documentary evidence of historical floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden 1400-1800

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Retsö, D.

2014-09-01

This article explores documentary evidence of floods and extreme rainfall events in Sweden in the pre-instrumental period (1400-1800). The survey shows that two subperiods can be considered as flood-rich, 1590-1670 and the early 18th century. The result is related to a low degree of human impact on hydrology during the period, and suggest that climatic factors, such as lower temperatures and increased precipitation connected to the so called Little Ice Age, should be considered as the main driver behind flood frequency and magnitude.

Streamflow model of Wisconsin River for estimating flood frequency and volume

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krug, William R.; House, Leo B.

1980-01-01

The 100-year flood peak at Wisconsin Dells, computed from the simulated, regulated streamflow data for the period 1915-76, is 82,000 cubic feet per second, including the effects of all the reservoirs in the river system, as they are currently operated. It also includes the effects of Lakes Du Bay, Petenwell, and Castle Rock which are significant for spring floods but are insignificant for summer or fall floods because they are normally maintained nearly full in the summer and fall and have very little storage for floodwaters. (USGS)

Predictive susceptibility analysis of typhoon induced landslides in Central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shou, Keh-Jian; Lin, Zora

2017-04-01

Climate change caused by global warming affects Taiwan significantly for the past decade. The increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events, in which concentrated and intensive rainfalls generally cause geohazards including landslides and debris flows. The extraordinary, such as 2004 Mindulle and 2009 Morakot, hit Taiwan and induced serious flooding and landslides. This study employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to understand the temporal rainfall trends, distributions, and intensities in the adopted Wu River watershed in Central Taiwan. To assess the spatial hazard of the landslides, landslide susceptibility analysis was also applied. Different types of rainfall factors were tested in the susceptibility models for a better accuracy. In addition, the routes of typhoons were also considered in the predictive analysis. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.

Peak-flow frequency and extreme flood potential for streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Slade, R.M.; Lanning-Rush, Jennifer

1996-01-01

The Highland Lakes on the Colorado River are in an area periodically threatened by large storms and floods. Many storms exceeding 10 inches (in.) in depth have been documented in the area, including some with depths approaching 40 in. These storms typically produce large peak discharges that often threaten lives and property. The storms sometimes occur with little warning. Steep stream slopes and thin soils characteristic of the area often cause large peak discharges and rapid movement of floods through watersheds. A procedure to predict the discharge associated with large floods is needed for the area so that appropriate peak discharges can be used in the design of flood plains, bridges, and other structures.The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA), studied flood peaks for streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes of central Texas. The Highland Lakes are a series of reservoirs constructed on the Colorado River. The chain of lakes (and year each was completed) comprises Lake Buchanan (1937), Inks Lake (1938), Lake Lyndon B. Johnson (1950), Lake Marble Falls (1951), Lake Travis (1942), and lake Austin (1890). The study area (fig. 1), which includes all or parts of 21 counties in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, was selected because most streams in the area have flood characteristics similar to streams entering the Highland Lakes. The entire study area is in a region subject to large storms.The purpose of this report is to present (1) peak-flow frequency data for stations and equations to estimate peak-flow frequency for large streams with natural drainage basins in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes, and (2) a technique to estimate the extreme flood peak discharges for the large streams in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes. Peak-flow frequency in this report refers to the peak discharges for recurrence intervals of 2,5, 10,25,50, and 100 years. A large stream is defined as having a contributing drainage area of at least0.5 square mile (mi’); and a natural drainage basin has less than 10 percent impervious cover and less than 10 percent of its drainage area controlled by reservoirs.The mean annual precipitation in the study area for 1951–80 ranges from about 20 in, in western Kimble County to about 34 in. at the eastern edge of Williamson County (Riggio and others, 1987, p. 23). Many large storms and catastrophic floods have occurred along or in the adjacent area west of the Balcones escarpment (fig. 1) (Dalrymple and others, 1939, Breeding and Dalrymple, 1944; Breeding and Montgomery, 1954; Schroeder and others, 1979; Caran and Baker, 1986; Slade, 1986; and Hejl and others, 1996). About a dozen storms with precipitation depths exceeding 15 in. in a few days or less have been documented in this area during the past 60 years. Some of these storms have produced world-record precipitation depths for durations less than 48 hours. The documentation for these and for other large storms indicates that they are not uniformly distributed temporally or spatially; therefore, the recurrence intervals for such storms cannot be verified (Slade, 1986, p. 17). These large storms can cause flood peaks that would exceed those that can be predicted accurately by analyses of available precipitation or flood data.The peak-flow frequency was estimated for each of 55 qualified stations in the study area (table 1) following guidelines established by the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (1982). Qualified streamflow-gaging stations for the study area are those with at least 8 years of data from natural drainage basins (sites 1–55, fig. 1). Equations to estimate peak-flow frequency for large streams with natural drainage basins in the vicinity of the Highland Lakes were developed. These equations were developed from selected stations on the basis of the relation between peak-flow frequency and basin characteristics for each station. The entire period of systematic record (through 1993) was used in the frequency analyses for each qualified station except for stations at which streamflow was regulated during part of the record. These stations are Leon River near Belton (site 1): Lampasas River near Youngsport (site 5); North Fork San Gabriel River near Georgetown (site 6); San Gabriel River at Laneport (site 12); Brady Creek at Brady (site 16); San Saba River at San Saba (site 18); Rebecca Creek near Spring Branch (site 51); and Cibolo Creek near Boerne (site 54). One or more reservoirs were completed in the basin of each of these stations during the period of systematic record. These reservoirs caused the annual peak discharges to become regulated. The annual peak discharges for 1994 and 1995 at Sandy Creek near Kingsland (site 28) were used to include data associated with extreme flooding that occurred in 1995.The extreme flood potential in the study area was investigated using an "envelope" or "extreme flood potential" curve. This curve is based on the relation between the contributing drainage area and (1) the maximum peak discharge of record for each qualified station (table 1); (2) substantial peak discharges documented for 84 sites without stations (sites 56–139, fig. 1, table 2); and (3) 100-year peak discharges from peak-flow frequency for stations (table 1). Peak discharges estimated from this curve represent the extreme flood potential for the study area.

Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years.

PubMed

Glur, Lukas; Wirth, Stefanie B; Büntgen, Ulf; Gilli, Adrian; Haug, Gerald H; Schär, Christoph; Beer, Jürg; Anselmetti, Flavio S

2013-09-26

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

Establishing the environmental risk of metal contaminated river bank sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Sarah; Batty, Lesley; Byrne, Patrick

2016-04-01

Climate change predictions indicate an increase in the frequency and duration of flood events along with longer dry antecedent conditions, which could alter patterns of trace metal release from contaminated river bank sediments. This study took a laboratory mesocosm approach. Chemical analysis of water and sediment samples allowed the patterns of Pb and Zn release and key mechanisms controlling Pb and Zn mobility to be determined. Trace metal contaminants Pb and Zn were released throughout flooded periods. The highest concentrations of dissolved Pb were observed at the end of the longest flood period and high concentrations of dissolved Zn were released at the start of a flood. These concentrations were found to exceed environmental quality standards. Key mechanisms controlling mobility were (i) evaporation, precipitation and dissolution of Zn sulphate salts, (ii) anglesite solubility control of dissolved Pb, (iii) oxidation of galena and sphalerite, (iv) reductive dissolution of Mn/Fe hydroxides and co-precipitation/adsorption with Zn. In light of climate change predictions these results indicate future scenarios may include larger or more frequent transient 'pulses' of dissolved Pb and Zn released to river systems. These short lived pollution episodes could act as a significant barrier to achieving the EU Water Framework Directive objectives.

Extension of classical hydrological risk analysis to non-stationary conditions due to climate change - application to the Fulda catchment, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, G.; Koch, M.

2010-12-01

An important aspect in water resources and hydrological engineering is the assessment of hydrological risk, due to the occurrence of extreme events, e.g. droughts or floods. When dealing with the latter - as is the focus here - the classical methods of flood frequency analysis (FFA) are usually being used for the proper dimensioning of a hydraulic structure, for the purpose of bringing down the flood risk to an acceptable level. FFA is based on extreme value statistics theory. Despite the progress of methods in this scientific branch, the development, decision, and fitting of an appropriate distribution function stills remains a challenge, particularly, when certain underlying assumptions of the theory are not met in real applications. This is, for example, the case when the stationarity-condition for a random flood time series is not satisfied anymore, as could be the situation when long-term hydrological impacts of future climate change are to be considered. The objective here is to verify the applicability of classical (stationary) FFA to predicted flood time series in the Fulda catchment in central Germany, as they may occur in the wake of climate change during the 21st century. These discharge time series at the outlet of the Fulda basin have been simulated with a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) that is forced by predicted climate variables of a regional climate model for Germany (REMO). From the simulated future daily time series, annual maximum (extremes) values are computed and analyzed for the purpose of risk evaluation. Although the 21st century estimated extreme flood series of the Fulda river turn out to be only mildly non-stationary, alleviating the need for further action and concern at the first sight, the more detailed analysis of the risk, as quantified, for example, by the return period, shows non-negligent differences in the calculated risk levels. This could be verified by employing a new method, the so-called flood series maximum analysis (FSMA) method, which consists in the stochastic simulation of numerous trajectories of a stochastic process with a given GEV-distribution over a certain length of time (> larger than a desired return period). Then the maximum value for each trajectory is computed, all of which are then used to determine the empirical distribution of this maximum series. Through graphical inversion of this distribution function the size of the design flood for a given risk (quantile) and given life duration can be inferred. The results of numerous simulations show that for stationary flood series, the new FSMA method results, expectedly, in nearly identical risk values as the classical FFA approach. However, once the flood time series becomes slightly non-stationary - for reasons as discussed - and regardless of whether the trend is increasing or decreasing, large differences in the computed risk values for a given design flood occur. Or in other word, for the same risk, the new FSMA method would lead to different values in the design flood for a hydraulic structure than the classical FFA method. This, in turn, could lead to some cost savings in the realization of a hydraulic project.

Sea-level Rise Increases the Frequency of Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari Rostamkhani, H.; Aghakouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Feldman, D.; Sweet, W.; Matthew, R.; Luke, A.

2015-12-01

The global warming-drivensea-level rise (SLR) posesa serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. The rate of SLR is accelerated in recent decades and is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gas emissions. Over the 20th century, an increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has been reported due to the reduced gap between tidal datum and flood stage. Nuisance flooding (NF), however non-destructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take the projected SLR under the least and the most extreme representative concentration pathways (e.gRCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) to estimate the increase in NF in the near- (2030) and mid-term (2050) future. The results suggest that projected SLR will cause up to two-fold more frequent NF by 2050, compared with the 20th century. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks especially in rapidly urbanized coastal regions.

Watershed erosion estimated from a high-resolution sediment core reveals a non-stationary frequency-magnitude relationship and importance of seasonal climate drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavin, D. G.; Colombaroli, D.; Morey, A. E.

2015-12-01

The inclusion of paleo-flood events greatly affects estimates of peak magnitudes (e.g., Q100) in flood-frequency analysis. Likewise, peak events also are associated with certain synoptic climatic patterns that vary on all time scales. Geologic records preserved in lake sediments have the potential to capture the non-stationarity in frequency-magnitude relationships, but few such records preserve a continuous history of event magnitudes. We present a 10-meter 2000-yr record from Upper Squaw Lake, Oregon, that contains finely laminated silt layers that reflect landscape erosion events from the 40 km2 watershed. CT-scans of the core (<1 mm resolution) and a 14C-dated chronology yielded a pseudo-annual time series of erosion magnitudes. The most recent 80 years of the record correlates strongly with annual peak stream discharge and road construction. We examined the frequency-magnitude relationship for the entire pre-road period and show that the seven largest events fall above a strongly linear relationship, suggesting a distinct process (e.g., severe fires or earthquakes) operating at low-frequency to generate large-magnitude events. Expressing the record as cumulative sediment accumulation anomalies showed the importance of the large events in "returning the system" to the long-term mean rate. Applying frequency-magnitude analysis in a moving window showed that the Q100 and Q10 of watershed erosion varied by 1.7 and 1.0 orders of magnitude, respectively. The variations in watershed erosion are weakly correlated with temperature and precipitation reconstructions at the decadal to centennial scale. This suggests that dynamics both internal (i.e., sediment production) and external (i.e., earthquakes) to the system, as well as more stochastic events (i.e., single severe wildfires) can at least partially over-ride external climate forcing of watershed erosion at decadal to centennial time scales.

Moving towards a new paradigm for global flood risk estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, Tara J.; Devineni, Naresh; Lima, Carlos; Lall, Upmanu

2013-04-01

Traditional approaches to flood risk assessment are typically indexed to an instantaneous peak flow event at a specific recording gage on a river, and then extrapolated through hydraulic modeling of that peak flow to the potential area that is likely to be inundated. Recent research shows that property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. The existing notion of a flood return period based on just the instantaneous peak flow rate at a stream gauge consequently needs to be revisited, especially for floods due to persistent rainfall as seen recently in Thailand, Pakistan, the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers, France, and Germany. Depending on the flood event type considered, different rainfall inducing mechanisms (tropical storm, local convection, frontal system, recurrent tropical waves) may be involved. Each of these will have a characteristic spatial scale, expression and orientation and temporal characteristics. We develop stochastic models that can reproduce these attributes with appropriate intensity-duration-frequency and spatial expression, and hence provide a basis for conditioning basin hydrologic attributes for flood risk assessment. Past work on Non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Models (NHMM) is used as a basis to develop this capability at regional scales. In addition, a dynamic hierarchical Bayesian network model that is continuous and not based on discretization to states is tested and compared against NHMM. The exogenous variables in these models comes from the analysis of key synoptic circulation patterns which will be used as predictors for the regional spatio-temporal models. The stochastic simulations of rainfall are then used as input to a flood modeling system, which consists of a series of physically based models. Rainfall-runoff generation is produced by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. When the modeled streamflow crosses a threshold, a full kinematic wave routing model is implemented at a finer resolution (<=1km) in order to more accurately model streamflow under flood conditions and estimate inundation. This approach allows for efficient computational simulation of the hydrology when not under potential for flooding with high-resolution flood wave modeling when there is flooding potential. We demonstrate the results of this flood risk estimation system for the Ohio River basin in the United States, a large river basin that is historically prone to flooding, with the intention of using it to do global flood risk assessment.

Relating streamflow characteristics to specialized insectivores in the Tennessee River Valley: a regional approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knight, Rodney R.; Gregory, M. Brian; Wales, Amy K.

2008-01-01

Analysis of hydrologic time series and fish community data across the Tennessee River Valley identified three hydrologic metrics essential to habitat suitability and food availability for insectivorous fish communities in streams of the Tennessee River Valley: constancy (flow stability or temporal invariance), frequency of moderate flooding (frequency of habitat disturbance), and rate of streamflow recession. Initial datasets included 1100 fish community sites and 300 streamgages. Reduction of these datasets to sites with coexisting data yielded 33 sites with streamflow and fish community data for analysis. Identification of critical hydrologic metrics was completed using a multivariate correlation procedure that maximizes the rank correlation between the hydrologic metrics and fish community resemblance matrices. Quantile regression was used to define thresholds of potential ranges of insectivore scores for given values of the hydrologic metrics. Increased values of constancy and insectivore scores were positively correlated. Constancy of streamflow maintains wetted perimeter, which is important for providing habitat for fish spawning and increased surface area for invertebrate colonization and reproduction. Site scores for insectivorous fish increased as the frequency of moderate flooding (3 times the median annual streamflow) decreased, suggesting that insectivorous fish communities respond positively to less frequent disturbance and a more stable habitat. Increased streamflow recession rates were associated with decreased insectivore scores. Increased streamflow recession can strand fish in pools and other areas that are disconnected from flowing water and remove invertebrates as food sources that were suspended during high-streamflow events.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Juticalpa, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, M.C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Juticalpa that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Juticalpa. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Juticalpa as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood on Rio Juticalpa at Juticalpa were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Juticalpa at Juticalpa, 1,360 cubic meters per second, was computed as the drainage-area-adjusted weighted average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Juticalpa en El Torito, located about 2 kilometers upstream from Juticalpa. One discharge, 1,551 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 33 years of peak-discharge record for the gage, and the other, 486 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges at the gage is 1,310 cubic meters per second. The 50-year flood discharge for the study area reach of Rio Juticalpa was estimated by multiplying the weighted discharge at the gage by the ratio of the drainage areas upstream from the two locations.

Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

2015-12-01

Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in the ME scenario are half of that in the HE scenario, and a quarter in the LE scenario. In addition, we set three categories depending on mortality level. Our proposed vulnerability scenarios would enable us to reasonably replicate self-sustained vulnerability change against flood hazard associated with the SSPs.