A national scale flood hazard mapping methodology: The case of Greece - Protection and adaptation policy approaches.

PubMed

Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Karatzas, George P

2017-12-01

The present work introduces a national scale flood hazard assessment methodology, using multi-criteria analysis and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques in a GIS environment. The proposed methodology was applied in Greece, where flash floods are a relatively frequent phenomenon and it has become more intense over the last decades, causing significant damages in rural and urban sectors. In order the most prone flooding areas to be identified, seven factor-maps (that are directly related to flood generation) were combined in a GIS environment. These factor-maps are: a) the Flow accumulation (F), b) the Land use (L), c) the Altitude (A), b) the Slope (S), e) the soil Erodibility (E), f) the Rainfall intensity (R), and g) the available water Capacity (C). The name to the proposed method is "FLASERC". The flood hazard for each one of these factors is classified into five categories: Very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The above factors are combined and processed using the appropriate ANN algorithm tool. For the ANN training process spatial distribution of historical flooded points in Greece within the five different flood hazard categories of the aforementioned seven factor-maps were combined. In this way, the overall flood hazard map for Greece was determined. The final results are verified using additional historical flood events that have occurred in Greece over the last 100years. In addition, an overview of flood protection measures and adaptation policy approaches were proposed for agricultural and urban areas located at very high flood hazard areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

2017-04-01

Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Back analysis of Swiss flood danger map to define local flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choffet, Marc; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Leroi, Eric; Mayis, Arnaud

2010-05-01

The flood hazard maps for the entire Switzerland will be available at the end of 2011. Furthermore, the Swiss territory has been covered by aerial laser scanning (ALS) providing high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). This paper describes the development of a method for analyzing the local flood hazard based on Swiss hazard maps and HR-DEM. In their original state, Swiss hazard maps are constructed on the basis of an aggregation of information, a matrix intensity, and frequency. The degree of danger represented by the yellow, blue and red zones gives no information on the water level at each point of the territory. The developed method is based on a superposition of the danger map with the HR-DEM to determine the water level in a hazard area. To perform this method, (1) a triangulation is based on the intersection of the hazard map with the HR-DEM. It uses the limits of area where information is contrain. The hazard map perimeter and the boundaries of hazard areas give information on the widest possible overflow in case of flooding. It is also possible to associate it with a return period. (2) Based on these areas and the difference with the DEM, it is possible to calibrate the highest flood level and the extract water levels for the entire area. This analysis of existing documents opens up interesting perspectives for understanding how infrastructures are threatened by flood hazard by predicting water levels and potential damages to buildings while proposing remedial measures. Indeed, this method allows estimating the water level at each point of a building in case of flooding. It is designed to provide spatial information on water height levels; this offers a different approach of buildings in danger zones. Indeed, it is possible to discern several elements, such as areas of water accumulation involving longer flood duration, possible structural damages to buildings due to high hydrostatic pressure, determination of a local hazard, or the display of water levels in 3D.

44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standard Flood Hazard... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.16 Standard Flood Hazard Determination...

Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, L.; Mukolwe, M. M.; Di Baldassarre, G.

2016-02-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and disruptive natural hazards that affect man. Annually, significant flood damage is documented worldwide. Flood mapping is a common preimpact flood hazard mitigation measure, for which advanced methods and tools (such as flood inundation models) are used to estimate potential flood extent maps that are used in spatial planning. However, these tools are affected, largely to an unknown degree, by both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Over the past few years, advances in uncertainty analysis with respect to flood inundation modeling show that it is appropriate to adopt Probabilistic Flood Maps (PFM) to account for uncertainty. However, the following question arises; how can probabilistic flood hazard information be incorporated into spatial planning? Thus, a consistent framework to incorporate PFMs into the decision-making is required. In this paper, a novel methodology based on Decision-Making under Uncertainty theories, in particular Value of Information (VOI) is proposed. Specifically, the methodology entails the use of a PFM to generate a VOI map, which highlights floodplain locations where additional information is valuable with respect to available floodplain management actions and their potential consequences. The methodology is illustrated with a simplified example and also applied to a real case study in the South of France, where a VOI map is analyzed on the basis of historical land use change decisions over a period of 26 years. Results show that uncertain flood hazard information encapsulated in PFMs can aid decision-making in floodplain planning.

Mapping Coastal Flood Zones for the National Flood Insurance Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlton, D.; Cook, C. L.; Weber, J.

2004-12-01

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created by Congress in 1968, and significantly amended in 1973 to reduce loss of life and property caused by flooding, reduce disaster relief costs caused by flooding and make Federally backed flood insurance available to property owners. These goals were to be achieved by requiring building to be built to resist flood damages, guide construction away from flood hazards, and transferring the cost of flood losses from taxpayers to policyholders. Areas subject to flood hazards were defined as those areas that have a probability greater than 1 percent of being inundated in any given year. Currently over 19,000 communities participate in the NFIP, many of them coastal communities subject to flooding from tides, storm surge, waves, or tsunamis. The mapping of coastal hazard areas began in the early 1970's and has been evolving ever since. At first only high tides and storm surge were considered in determining the hazardous areas. Then, after significant wave caused storm damage to structures outside of the mapped hazard areas wave hazards were also considered. For many years FEMA has had Guidelines and Specifications for mapping coastal hazards for the East Coast and the Gulf Coast. In September of 2003 a study was begun to develop similar Guidelines and Specifications for the Pacific Coast. Draft Guidelines and Specifications will be delivered to FEMA by September 30, 2004. During the study tsunamis were identified as a potential source of a 1 percent flood event on the West Coast. To better understand the analytical results, and develop adequate techniques to estimate the magnitude of a tsunami with a 1 percent probability of being equaled or exceeded in any year, a pilot study has begun at Seaside Oregon. Both the onshore velocity and the resulting wave runup are critical functions for FEMA to understand and potentially map. The pilot study is a cooperative venture between NOAA and USGS that is partially funded by both agencies and by FEMA. The results of the pilot study will help FEMA determine when tsunamis should be considered in mapping coastal hazards, how to predict their impact, how they should be mapped and possibly the construction standards for zones mapped as having a 1 percent or greater chance of suffering a tsunami.

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... flood hazard that results from the decertification of a previously accredited flood protection system that is determined to be in the process of being restored to provide base flood protection V Area of... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface...

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Androscoggin County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed and as funds allow. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Androscoggin County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Androscoggin County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Androscoggin County, Maine, is at least 17 years. Most studies were published in the early 1990s, and some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study date. Since the studies were done, development has occurred in many of the watersheds and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Lincoln County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Lincoln County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Lincoln County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Lincoln County, Maine is at least 17 years. Many of these studies were published in the mid- to late-1980s, and some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study. However, in the ensuing 15-20 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

Flood hazard mapping of Palembang City by using 2D model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farid, Mohammad; Marlina, Ayu; Kusuma, Muhammad Syahril Badri

2017-11-01

Palembang as the capital city of South Sumatera Province is one of the metropolitan cities in Indonesia that flooded almost every year. Flood in the city is highly related to Musi River Basin. Based on Indonesia National Agency of Disaster Management (BNPB), the level of flood hazard is high. Many natural factors caused flood in the city such as high intensity of rainfall, inadequate drainage capacity, and also backwater flow due to spring tide. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors such as population increase, land cover/use change, and garbage problem make flood problem become worse. The objective of this study is to develop flood hazard map of Palembang City by using two dimensional model. HEC-RAS 5.0 is used as modelling tool which is verified with field observation data. There are 21 sub catchments of Musi River Basin in the flood simulation. The level of flood hazard refers to Head Regulation of BNPB number 2 in 2012 regarding general guideline of disaster risk assessment. The result for 25 year return per iod of flood shows that with 112.47 km2 area of inundation, 14 sub catchments are categorized in high hazard level. It is expected that the hazard map can be used for risk assessment.

Mapping Infected Area after a Flash-Flooding Storm Using Multi Criteria Analysis and Spectral Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Akad, S.; Akensous, Y.; Hakdaoui, M.

2017-11-01

This research article is summarize the applications of remote sensing and GIS to study the urban floods risk in Al Mukalla. Satellite acquisition of a flood event on October 2015 in Al Mukalla (Yemen) by using flood risk mapping techniques illustrate the potential risk present in this city. Satellite images (The Landsat and DEM images data were atmospherically corrected, radiometric corrected, and geometric and topographic distortions rectified.) are used for flood risk mapping to afford a hazard (vulnerability) map. This map is provided by applying image-processing techniques and using geographic information system (GIS) environment also the application of NDVI, NDWI index, and a method to estimate the flood-hazard areas. Four factors were considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the hazardous areas: flow accumulation, slope, land use, geology and elevation. The multi-criteria analysis, allowing to deal with vulnerability to flooding, as well as mapping areas at the risk of flooding of the city Al Mukalla. The main object of this research is to provide a simple and rapid method to reduce and manage the risks caused by flood in Yemen by take as example the city of Al Mukalla.

44 CFR 9.7 - Determination of proposed action's location.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Regional Administrator shall consult the FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) the Flood Boundary Floodway Map (FBFM) and the Flood Insurance Study (FIS). (ii) If a detailed map (FIRM or FBFM) is not available, the Regional Administrator shall consult an FEMA Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) . If data on flood...

Hydrology Analysis and Modelling for Klang River Basin Flood Hazard Map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidek, L. M.; Rostam, N. E.; Hidayah, B.; Roseli, ZA; Majid, W. H. A. W. A.; Zahari, N. Z.; Salleh, S. H. M.; Ahmad, R. D. R.; Ahmad, M. N.

2016-03-01

Flooding, a common environmental hazard worldwide has in recent times, increased as a result of climate change and urbanization with the effects felt more in developing countries. As a result, the explosive of flooding to Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) substation is increased rapidly due to existing substations are located in flood prone area. By understanding the impact of flood to their substation, TNB has provided the non-structure mitigation with the integration of Flood Hazard Map with their substation. Hydrology analysis is the important part in providing runoff as the input for the hydraulic part.

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

Benchmarking an operational procedure for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Salamon, Peter; Kalas, Milan; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The development of real-time methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is crucial to improve emergency response and mitigate flood impacts. This work describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on the flood predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The daily forecasts produced for the major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, based on the hydro-meteorological dataset of EFAS. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in near real-time in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, affected population, infrastructures and cities. An extensive testing of the operational procedure is carried out using the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-derived flood footprints, while ground-based estimations of economic damage and affected population is compared against modelled estimates. We evaluated the skill of flood hazard and risk estimations derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations. The assessment includes a comparison of several alternative approaches to produce and present the information content, in order to meet the requests of EFAS users. The tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Potential flood hazard assessment by integration of ALOS PALSAR and ASTER GDEM: a case study for the Hoa Chau commune, Hoa Vang district, in central Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huong, Do Thi Viet; Nagasawa, Ryota

2014-01-01

The potential flood hazard was assessed for the Hoa Chau commune in central Vietnam in order to identify the high flood hazard zones for the decision makers who will execute future rural planning. A new approach for deriving the potential flood hazard based on integration of inundation and flow direction maps is described. Areas inundated in the historical flood event of 2007 were extracted from Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) phased array L-band synthetic aperture data radar (PALSAR) images, while flow direction characteristics were derived from the ASTER GDEM to extract the depressed surfaces. Past flood experience and the flow direction were then integrated to analyze and rank the potential flood hazard zones. The land use/cover map extracted from LANDSAT TM and flood depth point records from field surveys were utilized to check the possibility of susceptible inundated areas, extracting data from ALOS PALSAR and ranking the potential flood hazard. The estimation of potential flood hazard areas revealed that 17.43% and 17.36% of Hoa Chau had high and medium potential flood hazards, respectively. The flow direction and ALOS PALSAR data were effectively integrated for determining the potential flood hazard when hydrological and meteorological data were inadequate and remote sensing images taken during flood times were not available or were insufficient.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

2015-08-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Development of Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping For Flooding Induced by Dam Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C.; Yeh, J. J. J.

2017-12-01

A primary function of flood inundation mapping is to forecast flood hazards and assess potential losses. However, uncertainties limit the reliability of inundation hazard assessments. Major sources of uncertainty should be taken into consideration by an optimal flood management strategy. This study focuses on the 20km reach downstream of the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. A dam failure induced flood herein provides the upstream boundary conditions of flood routing. The two major sources of uncertainty that are considered in the hydraulic model and the flood inundation mapping herein are uncertainties in the dam break model and uncertainty of the roughness coefficient. The perturbance moment method is applied to a dam break model and the hydro system model to develop probabilistic flood inundation mapping. Various numbers of uncertain variables can be considered in these models and the variability of outputs can be quantified. The probabilistic flood inundation mapping for dam break induced floods can be developed with consideration of the variability of output using a commonly used HEC-RAS model. Different probabilistic flood inundation mappings are discussed and compared. Probabilistic flood inundation mappings are hoped to provide new physical insights in support of the evaluation of concerning reservoir flooded areas.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Penobscot County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program (MFMP), began scoping work in 2006 for Penobscot County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Penobscot County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database with information gathered during the scoping process. As of 2007, the average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Penobscot County, Maine, is 22 years, based on the most recent revisions to the maps. Because the revisions did not affect all the map panels in each town, however, the true average date probably is more than 22 years. Many of the studies were published in the mid-1980s. Since the studies were completed, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... with water surface elevations determined A0 Area of special flood hazards having shallow water depths... insurance rating purposes AH Areas of special flood hazards having shallow water depths and/or unpredictable... of special flood hazards having shallow water depths and/or unpredictable flow paths between (1) and...

Evaluation of flood hazard maps in print and web mapping services as information tools in flood risk communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemeier-Klose, M.; Wagner, K.

2009-04-01

Flood risk communication with the general public and the population at risk is getting increasingly important for flood risk management, especially as a precautionary measure. This is also underlined by the EU Flood Directive. The flood related authorities therefore have to develop adjusted information tools which meet the demands of different user groups. This article presents the formative evaluation of flood hazard maps and web mapping services according to the specific requirements and needs of the general public using the dynamic-transactional approach as a theoretical framework. The evaluation was done by a mixture of different methods; an analysis of existing tools, a creative workshop with experts and laymen and an online survey. The currently existing flood hazard maps or web mapping services or web GIS still lack a good balance between simplicity and complexity with adequate readability and usability for the public. Well designed and associative maps (e.g. using blue colours for water depths) which can be compared with past local flood events and which can create empathy in viewers, can help to raise awareness, to heighten the activity and knowledge level or can lead to further information seeking. Concerning web mapping services, a linkage between general flood information like flood extents of different scenarios and corresponding water depths and real time information like gauge levels is an important demand by users. Gauge levels of these scenarios are easier to understand than the scientifically correct return periods or annualities. The recently developed Bavarian web mapping service tries to integrate these requirements.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Hancock County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Hancock County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Hancock County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps (all types) in Hancock County, Maine, is at least 19 years. Most of these studies were published in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and no study is more recent than 1992. Some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study, indicating that the true average age of the data is probably more than 19 years. Since the studies were done, development has occurred in some of the watersheds and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions or accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Flood Vulnerability Assessment Map

EIA Publications

Maps of energy infrastructure with real-time storm and emergency information by fuel type and by state. Flood hazard information from FEMA has been combined with EIA's energy infrastructure layers as a tool to help state, county, city, and private sector planners assess which key energy infrastructure assets are vulnerable to rising sea levels, storm surges, and flash flooding. Note that flood hazard layers must be zoomed-in to street level before they become visible.

New version of 1 km global river flood hazard maps for the next generation of Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Bierkens, Marc

2017-04-01

The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer, launched in 2015, is an open-access and free-of-charge web-based interactive platform which assesses and visualises current and future projections of river flood impacts across the globe. One of the key components in the Analyzer is a set of river flood inundation hazard maps derived from the global hydrological model simulation of PCR-GLOBWB. For the current version of the Analyzer, accessible on http://floods.wri.org/#/, the early generation of PCR-GLOBWB 1.0 was used and simulated at 30 arc-minute ( 50 km at the equator) resolution. In this presentation, we will show the new version of these hazard maps. This new version is based on the latest version of PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 (https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model, Sutanudjaja et al., 2016, doi:10.5281/zenodo.60764) simulated at 5 arc-minute ( 10 km at the equator) resolution. The model simulates daily hydrological and water resource fluxes and storages, including the simulation of overbank volume that ends up on the floodplain (if flooding occurs). The simulation was performed for the present day situation (from 1960) and future climate projections (until 2099) using the climate forcing created in the ISI-MIP project. From the simulated flood inundation volume time series, we then extract annual maxima for each cell, and fit these maxima to a Gumbel extreme value distribution. This allows us to derive flood volume maps of any hazard magnitude (ranging from 2-year to 1000-year flood events) and for any time period (e.g. 1960-1999, 2010-2049, 2030-2069, and 2060-2099). The derived flood volumes (at 5 arc-minute resolution) are then spread over the high resolution terrain model using an updated GLOFRIS downscaling module (Winsemius et al., 2013, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013). The updated version performs a volume spreading sequentially from more upstream basins to downstream basins, hence enabling a better inclusion of smaller streams, and takes into account spreading of water over diverging deltaic regions. This results in a set of high resolution hazard maps of flood inundation depth at 30 arc-second ( 1 km at the equator) resolution. Together with many other updates and new features, the resulting flood hazard maps will be used in the next generation of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer.

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Kennebec County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2006-01-01

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Kennebec County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Kennebec County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Kennebec County (efforts were made to not duplicate those of pre-scoping completed in March 2005), documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Kennebec County, Maine is 16 years. Most of these studies were in the late 1970's to the mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-30 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Kennebec County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Kennebec County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and how e

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Somerset County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2006-01-01

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Somerset County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Somerset County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Somerset County (efforts were made to not duplicate those of pre-scoping completed in March 2005), documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Somerset County, Maine is 18.1 years. Most of these studies were in the late 1970's to the mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-30 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Somerset County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Somerset County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and ho

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Cumberland County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2006-01-01

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Cumberland County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Cumberland County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Cumberland County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Cumberland County, Maine is 21 years. Most of these studies were in the early to mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-25 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Cumberland County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Cumberland County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and how effective FIS data can be used in new project, and identify other data needed to

Flood-hazard mapping in Honduras in response to Hurricane Mitch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, M.C.

2002-01-01

The devastation in Honduras due to flooding from Hurricane Mitch in 1998 prompted the U.S. Agency for International Development, through the U.S. Geological Survey, to develop a country-wide systematic approach of flood-hazard mapping and a demonstration of the method at selected sites as part of a reconstruction effort. The design discharge chosen for flood-hazard mapping was the flood with an average return interval of 50 years, and this selection was based on discussions with the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Honduran Public Works and Transportation Ministry. A regression equation for estimating the 50-year flood discharge using drainage area and annual precipitation as the explanatory variables was developed, based on data from 34 long-term gaging sites. This equation, which has a standard error of prediction of 71.3 percent, was used in a geographic information system to estimate the 50-year flood discharge at any location for any river in the country. The flood-hazard mapping method was demonstrated at 15 selected municipalities. High-resolution digital-elevation models of the floodplain were obtained using an airborne laser-terrain mapping system. Field verification of the digital elevation models showed that the digital-elevation models had mean absolute errors ranging from -0.57 to 0.14 meter in the vertical dimension. From these models, water-surface elevation cross sections were obtained and used in a numerical, one-dimensional, steady-flow stepbackwater model to estimate water-surface profiles corresponding to the 50-year flood discharge. From these water-surface profiles, maps of area and depth of inundation were created at the 13 of the 15 selected municipalities. At La Lima only, the area and depth of inundation of the channel capacity in the city was mapped. At Santa Rose de Aguan, no numerical model was created. The 50-year flood and the maps of area and depth of inundation are based on the estimated 50-year storm tide.

44 CFR 65.12 - Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed encroachments. 65.12 Section 65.12... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL...

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martínez Trepat, Oriol; Nghia Hung, Nguyen; Thi Chinh, Do; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2016-04-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial-pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

2014-05-01

Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some appropriate uses of global scale hazard maps and explore how this new approach can be invaluable in areas of the world where flood hazard and risk have not previously been assessed.

Landslide and flood hazard assessment in urban areas of Levoča region (Eastern Slovakia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magulova, Barbora; Caporali, Enrica; Bednarik, Martin

2010-05-01

The case study presents the use of statistical methods and analysis tools, for hazard assessment of "urbanization units", implemented in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. As a case study, the Levoča region (Slovakia) is selected. The region, with a total area of about 351 km2, is widely affected by landslides and floods. The problem, for small urbanization areas, is nowadays particularly significant from the socio-economic point of view. It is considered, presently, also an increasing problem, mainly because of climate change and more frequent extreme rainfall events. The geo-hazards are evaluated using a multivariate analysis. The landslide hazard assessment is based on the comparison and subsequent statistical elaboration of territorial dependence among different input factors influencing the instability of the slopes. Particularly, five factors influencing slope stability are evaluated, i.e. lithology, slope aspect, slope angle, hypsographic level and present land use. As a result a new landslide susceptibility map is compiled and different zones of stable, dormant and non-stable areas are defined. For flood hazard map a detailed digital elevation model is created. A compose index of flood hazard is derived from topography, land cover and pedology related data. To estimate flood discharge, time series of stream flow and precipitation measurements are used. The assessment results are prognostic maps of landslide hazard and flood hazard, which presents the optimal base for urbanization planning.

Hazard Maps in the Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cross, John A.

1988-01-01

Emphasizes the use of geophysical hazard maps and illustrates how they can be used in the classroom from kindergarten to college level. Depicts ways that hazard maps of floods, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes, and multi-hazards can be integrated into classroom instruction. Tells how maps may be obtained. (SLM)

Flood maps in Europe - methods, availability and use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; van Alphen, J.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2009-03-01

To support the transition from traditional flood defence strategies to a flood risk management approach at the basin scale in Europe, the EU has adopted a new Directive (2007/60/EC) at the end of 2007. One of the major tasks which member states must carry out in order to comply with this Directive is to map flood hazards and risks in their territory, which will form the basis of future flood risk management plans. This paper gives an overview of existing flood mapping practices in 29 countries in Europe and shows what maps are already available and how such maps are used. Roughly half of the countries considered have maps covering as good as their entire territory, and another third have maps covering significant parts of their territory. Only five countries have very limited or no flood maps available yet. Of the different flood maps distinguished, it appears that flood extent maps are the most commonly produced floods maps (in 23 countries), but flood depth maps are also regularly created (in seven countries). Very few countries have developed flood risk maps that include information on the consequences of flooding. The available flood maps are mostly developed by governmental organizations and primarily used for emergency planning, spatial planning, and awareness raising. In spatial planning, flood zones delimited on flood maps mainly serve as guidelines and are not binding. Even in the few countries (e.g. France, Poland) where there is a legal basis to regulate floodplain developments using flood zones, practical problems are often faced which reduce the mitigating effect of such binding legislation. Flood maps, also mainly extent maps, are also created by the insurance industry in Europe and used to determine insurability, differentiate premiums, or to assess long-term financial solvency. Finally, flood maps are also produced by international river commissions. With respect to the EU Flood Directive, many countries already have a good starting point to map their flood hazards. A flood risk based map that includes consequences, however, has yet to be developed by most countries.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

2016-12-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapales, Ben Joseph; Mendoza, Jerico; Uichanco, Christopher; Mahar Francisco Amante Lagmay, Alfredo; Moises, Mark Anthony; Delmendo, Patricia; Eneri Tingin, Neil

2015-04-01

Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of people in areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more efficient exchange of information, allowing for flood simulations to be utilized in local flood disaster management programs. The success of these systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the people involved. As environmental changes create more significant impacts, the need to adapt to these is vital for man's safety. [1] Pacific Disaster Center

Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapales, B. J. M.; Mendoza, J.; Uichanco, C.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.; Moises, M. A.; Delmendo, P.; Tingin, N. E.

2014-12-01

Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more efficient exchange of information, allowing for flood simulations to be utilized in local flood disaster management programs. The success of these systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the people involved. As environmental changes create more significant impacts, the need to adapt to these is vital for man's safety. [1] Pacific Disaster Center

Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdallah, Chadi; Darwich, Talal; Hamze, Mouin; Zaarour, Nathalie

2014-05-01

Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. In fact, floods are responsible for over one third of people affected by natural disasters; almost 190 million people in more than 90 countries are exposed to catastrophic floods every year. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase, therefore, flood prediction and prevention has become a necessity in many places around the globe to decrease damages caused by flooding. Available evidence hints at an increasing frequency of flooding disasters being witnessed in the last 25 years in Lebanon. The consequences of such events are tragic including annual financial losses of around 15 million dollars. In this work, a hydrologic-hydraulic modeling framework for flood hazard mapping over Lebanon covering 19 watershed was introduced. Several empirical, statistical and stochastic methods to calculate the flood magnitude and its related return periods, where rainfall and river gauge data are neither continuous nor available on a long term basis with an absence of proper river sections that under estimate flows during flood events. TRMM weather satellite information, automated drainage networks, curve numbers and other geometrical characteristics for each basin was prepared using WMS-software and then exported into HMS files to implement the hydrologic modeling (rainfall-runoff) for single designed storm of uniformly distributed depth along each basin. The obtained flow hydrographs were implemented in the hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) where relative water surface profiles are calculated and flood plains are delineated. The model was calibrated using the last flood event of January 2013, field investigation, and high resolution satellite images. Flow results proved to have an accuracy ranging between 83-87% when compared to the computed statistical and stochastic methods. Results included the generation of recurrence flood plain maps of 10, 50 & 100 years intensity maps along with flood hazard maps for each watershed. It is of utmost significance for this study to be effective that the produced flood intensity and hazard maps will be made available to decision-makers, planners and relevant community stakeholders.

Vulnerability Assessment Using LIDAR Data in Silang-Sta Rosa Subwatershed, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bragais, M. A.; Magcale-Macandog, D. B.; Arizapa, J. L.; Manalo, K. M.

2016-10-01

Silang-Sta. Rosa Subwatershed is experiencing rapid urbanization. Its downstream area is already urbanized and the development is moving fast upstream. With the rapid land conversion of pervious to impervious areas and increase frequency of intense rainfall events, the downstream of the watershed is at risk of flood hazard. The widely used freeware HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center- River Analysis System) model was used to implement the 2D unsteady flow analysis to develop a flood hazard map. The LiDAR derived digital elevation model (DEM) with 1m resolution provided detailed terrain that is vital for producing reliable flood extent map that can be used for early warning system. With the detailed information from the simulation like areas to be flooded, the predicted depth and duration, we can now provide specific flood forecasting and mitigation plan even at community level. The methodology of using 2D unsteady flow modelling and high resolution DEM in a watershed can be replicated to other neighbouring watersheds specially those areas that are not yet urbanized so that their development will be guided to be flood hazard resilient. LGUs all over the country will benefit from having a high resolution flood hazard map.

78 FR 21136 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-09

... zone designations, or the regulatory floodway (hereinafter referred to as flood hazard determinations), as shown on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and where applicable, in the supporting Flood... appeals to the Chief Executive Officer of the community as listed in the table below. FOR FURTHER...

78 FR 35300 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-12

... zone designations, or the regulatory floodway (hereinafter referred to as flood hazard determinations), as shown on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and where applicable, in the supporting Flood... appeals to the Chief Executive Officer of the community as listed in the table below. FOR FURTHER...

Flood Hazard Assessment of the coastal lowland in the Kujukuri Plain of Chiba Prefecture, Japan, using GIS and multicriteria decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

CHEN, Huali; Tokunaga, Tomochika; Ito, Yuka; Sawamukai, Marie

2014-05-01

Floods, the most common natural disaster in the world, cause serious loss of life and economic damage. Flood is one of the disasters in the coastal lowland along the Kujukuri Plain, Chiba Prefecture, Japan. Many natural and human activities have changed the surface environment of the Plain. These include agricultural development, urban and industrial development, change of the drainage patterns of the land surface, deposition and/or erosion of the river valleys, and so on. In addition, wide spread occurrence of land subsidence has been caused by the abstraction of natural gas dissolved in groundwater. The locations of the groundwater extraction include nearby the coast, and it may increase the flood risk. Hence, it is very important to evaluate flood hazard by taking into account the temporal change of land elevation caused by land subsidence, and to develop hazard maps for protecting surface environment and land-use planning. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides methodology and techniques for analyzing complex decision problems, which often involve incommensurable data or criteria. Also, Geographical Information System (GIS) is the powerful tool since it manages large amount of spatial data involved in MCDA. The purpose of this study is to present a flood hazard model using MCDA techniques with GIS support in a region where primary data are scare. The model incorporates six parameters: river system, topography, land-use, flood control project, passing flood from coast, and precipitation. Main data sources used are 10 meter resolution topography data, airborne laser scanning data, leveling data, Landsat-TM data, two 1:30,000 scale river watershed map, and precipitation data from precipitation observation stations around the study area. River system map was created by merging the river order, the line density, and the river sink point density layers. Land-use data were derived from Landsat-TM images. A final hazard map for 2004, as an example, was obtained using an algorithm that combines factors in weighted linear combinations. The assignment of the weight/rank values and their analysis were realized by the application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. This study is the preliminary work to investigate the flood hazard at the Kujukuri Plain. Flood hazard map of the other years will be analyzed to investigate the temporal change of the flood hazard area, and more data will be collected and added to improve the assessment.

78 FR 20332 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-04

...), as shown on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and where applicable, in the supporting Flood... a Letter of Map Revision (LOMR), in accordance with Title 44, Part 65 of the Code of Federal... inspection at both the online location and the respective community map repository address listed in the...

High resolution mapping of flood hazard for South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Sourima; Nzerem, Kechi; Zovi, Francesco; Li, Shuangcai; Mei, Yi; Assteerawatt, Anongnart; Hilberts, Arno; Tillmanns, Stephan; Mitas, Christos

2015-04-01

Floods are one of primary natural hazards that affect South Korea. During the past 15 years, catastrophic flood events which mainly have occurred during the rainy and typhoon seasons - especially under condition where soils are already saturated, have triggered substantial property damage with an average annual loss of around US1.2 billion (determined from WAter Management Information System's flood damage database for years 2002-2011) in South Korea. According to Seoul Metropolitan Government, over 16,000 households in the capital city Seoul were inundated during 2010 flood events. More than 10,000 households in Seoul were apparently flooded during one major flood event due to torrential rain in July 2011. Recently in August 2014, a serious flood event due to heavy rainfall hit the Busan region in the south east of South Korea. Addressing the growing needs, RMS has recently released country-wide high resolution combined flood return period maps for post-drainage local "pluvial" inundation and undefended large-scale "fluvial" inundation to aid the government and the insurance industry in the evaluation of comprehensive flood risk. RMS has developed a flood hazard model for South Korea to generate inundation depths and extents for a range of flood return periods. The model is initiated with 30 years of historical meteorological forcing data and calibrated to daily observations at over 100 river gauges across the country. Simulations of hydrologic processes are subsequently performed based on a 2000 year set of stochastic forcing. Floodplain inundation processes are modelled by numerically solving the shallow water equations using finite volume method on GPUs. Taking into account the existing stormwater drainage standards, economic exposure densities, etc., reasonable flood maps are created from inundation model output. Final hazard maps at one arcsec grid resolution can be the basis for both evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses in South Korea.

Flood Impacts on People: from Hazard to Risk Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, C.; Castelli, F.

2017-12-01

The mitigation of adverse consequences of floods on people is crucial for civil protection and public authorities. According to several studies, in the developed countries the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs due to inappropriate high risk behaviours such as driving and walking in floodwaters. In this work both the loss of stability of vehicles and pedestrians in floodwaters are analysed. Flood hazard is evaluated, based on (i) a 2D inundation model of an urban area, (ii) 3D hydrodynamic simulations of water flows around vehicles and human body and (iii) a dimensional analysis of experimental activity. Exposure and vulnerability of vehicles and population are assessed exploiting several sources of open GIS data in order to produce risk maps for a testing case study. The results show that a significant hazard to vehicles and pedestrians exists in the study area. Particularly high is the hazard to vehicles, which are likely to be swept away by flood flow, possibly aggravate damages to structures and infrastructures and locally alter the flood propagation. Exposure and vulnerability analysis identifies some structures such as schools and public facilities, which may attract several people. Moreover, some shopping facilities in the area, which attract both vehicular and pedestrians' circulation are located in the highest flood hazard zone.The application of the method demonstrates that, at municipal level, such risk maps can support civil defence strategies and education to active citizenship, thus contributing to flood impact reduction to population.

Fifty-Year Flood-Inundation Maps for Santa Rosa de Aguan, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the coastal municipality of Santa Rosa de Aguan that are prone to oceanic storm-surge flooding and wave action. The 50-year flood on the Rio Aguan (4,270 cubic meters per second), would inundate most of the area surveyed for this municipality and beyond. Therefore a detailed numerical hydraulic model was not developed for this municipality as it was for the others. The 50-year storm surge would likely produce higher water levels than the 50-year flood on the river during normal astronomical tides. The elevation of the 50-year storm surge was estimated to be 4.35 meters above normal sea level, based on hurricane probabilities and published storm-surge elevations associated with various hurricane categories. Flood-inundation maps, including areas of wave-action hazard and a color-shaded elevation map, were created from the available data and the estimated 50-year storm tide. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the hazard areas are available on a computer in the municipality of Santa Rosa de Aguan as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Data Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the maps in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report.

Water Induced Hazard Mapping in Nepal: A Case Study of East Rapti River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, N.

2010-12-01

This paper presents illustration on typical water induced hazard mapping of East Rapti River Basin under the DWIDP, GON. The basin covers an area of 2398 sq km. The methodology includes making of base map of water induced disaster in the basin. Landslide hazard maps were prepared by SINMAP approach. Debris flow hazard maps were prepared by considering geology, slope, and saturation. Flood hazard maps were prepared by using two approaches: HEC-RAS and Satellite Imagery Interpretation. The composite water-induced hazard maps were produced by compiling the hazards rendered by landslide, debris flow, and flood. The monsoon average rainfall in the basin is 1907 mm whereas maximum 24 hours precipitation is 456.8 mm. The peak discharge of the Rapati River in the year of 1993 at station was 1220 cu m/sec. This discharge nearly corresponds to the discharge of 100-year return period. The landslides, floods, and debris flows triggered by the heavy rain of July 1993 claimed 265 lives, affected 148516 people, and damaged 1500 houses in the basin. The field investigation and integrated GIS interpretation showed that the very high and high landslide hazard zones collectively cover 38.38% and debris flow hazard zone constitutes 6.58%. High flood hazard zone occupies 4.28% area of the watershed. Mitigation measures are recommendated according to Integrated Watershed Management Approach under which the non-structural and structural measures are proposed. The non-structural measures includes: disaster management training, formulation of evacuation system (arrangement of information plan about disaster), agriculture management practices, protection of water sources, slope protections and removal of excessive bed load from the river channel. Similarly, structural measures such as dike, spur, rehabilitation of existing preventive measures and river training at some locations are recommendated. The major factors that have contributed to induce high incidences of various types of mass movements and inundation in the basin are rock and soil properties, prolonged and high-intensity rainfall, steep topography and various anthropogenic factors.

Identification and delineation of areas flood hazard using high accuracy of DEM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riadi, B.; Barus, B.; Widiatmaka; Yanuar, M. J. P.; Pramudya, B.

2018-05-01

Flood incidents that often occur in Karawang regency need to be mitigated. These expectations exist on technologies that can predict, anticipate and reduce disaster risks. Flood modeling techniques using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can be applied in mitigation activities. High accuracy DEM data used in modeling, will result in better flooding flood models. The result of high accuracy DEM data processing will yield information about surface morphology which can be used to identify indication of flood hazard area. The purpose of this study was to identify and describe flood hazard areas by identifying wetland areas using DEM data and Landsat-8 images. TerraSAR-X high-resolution data is used to detect wetlands from landscapes, while land cover is identified by Landsat image data. The Topography Wetness Index (TWI) method is used to detect and identify wetland areas with basic DEM data, while for land cover analysis using Tasseled Cap Transformation (TCT) method. The result of TWI modeling yields information about potential land of flood. Overlay TWI map with land cover map that produces information that in Karawang regency the most vulnerable areas occur flooding in rice fields. The spatial accuracy of the flood hazard area in this study was 87%.

Cartographic Design in Flood Risk Mapping - A Challenge for Communication and Stakeholder Involvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, S.; Serrhini, K.; Dorner, W.

2009-12-01

In order to mitigate flood hazards and to minimise associated losses, technical protection measures have been additionally and increasingly supplemented by non-technical mitigation, i.e. land-use planning activities. This is commonly done by creating maps which indicate such areas by different cartographic symbols, such as colour, size, shape, and typography. Hazard and risk mapping is the accepted procedure when communicating potential threats to stakeholders, and is therefore required in the European Member States in order to meet the demands of the European Flood Risk Directive. However, available information is sparse concerning the impact of such maps on different stakeholders, i.e., specialists in flood risk management, politicians, and affected citizens. The lack of information stems from a traditional approach to map production which does not take into account specific end-user needs. In order to overcome this information shortage the current study used a circular approach such that feed-back mechanisms originating from different perception patterns of the end user would be considered. Different sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to different groups of test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented communication of cartographic information. Therefore, the method of eye tracking was applied using a video-oculography technique. This resulted in a suggestion for a map template which fulfils the requirement to serve as an efficient communication tool for specialists and practitioners in hazard and risk mapping as well as for laypersons. Taking the results of this study will enable public authorities who are responsible for flood mitigation to (1) improve their flood risk maps, (2) enhance flood risk awareness, and therefore (3) create more disaster-resilient communities.

Building a flood hazard map due to magma effusion into the caldera lake of the Baekdusan Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Kim, S.; Yun, S.; Yu, S.; Kim, I.

2013-12-01

Many volcanic craters and calderas are filled with large amounts of water that can pose significant flood hazards to downstream communities due to their high elevation and the potential for catastrophic releases of water. Recent reports pointed out the Baekdusan volcano that is located between the border of China and North Korea as a potential active volcano. Since Millennium Eruption around 1000 AD, smaller eruptions have occurred at roughly 100-year intervals, with the last one in 1903. The volcano is showing signs of waking from a century-long slumber recently and the volcanic ash may spread up to the northeastern of Japan. The development of various forecasting techniques to prevent and minimize economic and social damage is in urgent need. Floods from lake-filled calderas may be particularly large and high. Volcanic flood may cause significant hydrologic hazards for this reason. This study focuses on constructing a flood hazard map triggered by the uplift of lake bottom due to magma effusion in the Baekdusan volcano. A physically-based uplift model was developed to compute the amount of water and time to peak flow. The ordinary differential equation was numerically solved using the finite difference method and Newton-Raphson iteration method was used to solve nonlinear equation. The magma effusion rate into the caldera lake is followed by the past record from other volcanic activities. As a result, the hydrograph serves as an upper boundary condition when hydrodynamic model (Flo-2D) runs to simulate channel routing downstream. The final goal of the study stresses the potential flood hazard represented by the huge volume of water in the caldera lake, the unique geography, and the limited control capability. he study will contribute to build a geohazard map for the decision-makers and practitioners. Keywords: Effusion rate, Volcanic flood, Caldera lake, Uplift, Flood hazard map Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-2] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea. Inundation map triggered by magma effusion simulated by Flo-2D

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Merrimack County, New Hampshire

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

DOQ Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle DOQQ Digital Ortho Quarter Quadrangle DTM Digital Terrain Model FBFM Flood Boundary and Floodway Map FEMA Federal...discussed available data and coverages within New Hampshire (for example, 2003 National Agriculture Imag- ery Program (NAIP) color Digital Orthophoto ... orthophotos providing improved base map accuracy. NH GRANIT is presently converting the standard, paper FIRMs and Flood Boundary and Floodway maps (FBFMs

Conveying Flood Hazard Risk Through Spatial Modeling: A Case Study for Hurricane Sandy-Affected Communities in Northern New Jersey.

PubMed

Artigas, Francisco; Bosits, Stephanie; Kojak, Saleh; Elefante, Dominador; Pechmann, Ildiko

2016-10-01

The accurate forecast from Hurricane Sandy sea surge was the result of integrating the most sophisticated environmental monitoring technology available. This stands in contrast to the limited information and technology that exists at the community level to translate these forecasts into flood hazard levels on the ground at scales that are meaningful to property owners. Appropriately scaled maps with high levels of certainty can be effectively used to convey exposure to flood hazard at the community level. This paper explores the most basic analysis and data required to generate a relatively accurate flood hazard map to convey inundation risk due to sea surge. A Boolean overlay analysis of four input layers: elevation and slope derived from LiDAR data and distances from streams and catch basins derived from aerial photography and field reconnaissance were used to create a spatial model that explained 55 % of the extent and depth of the flood during Hurricane Sandy. When a ponding layer was added to the previous model to account for depressions that would fill and spill over to nearby areas, the new model explained almost 70 % of the extent and depth of the flood. The study concludes that fairly accurate maps can be created with readily available information and that it is possible to infer a great deal about risk of inundation at the property level, from flood hazard maps. The study goes on to conclude that local communities are encouraged to prepare for disasters, but in reality because of the existing Federal emergency management framework there is very little incentive to do so.

Conveying Flood Hazard Risk Through Spatial Modeling: A Case Study for Hurricane Sandy-Affected Communities in Northern New Jersey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artigas, Francisco; Bosits, Stephanie; Kojak, Saleh; Elefante, Dominador; Pechmann, Ildiko

2016-10-01

The accurate forecast from Hurricane Sandy sea surge was the result of integrating the most sophisticated environmental monitoring technology available. This stands in contrast to the limited information and technology that exists at the community level to translate these forecasts into flood hazard levels on the ground at scales that are meaningful to property owners. Appropriately scaled maps with high levels of certainty can be effectively used to convey exposure to flood hazard at the community level. This paper explores the most basic analysis and data required to generate a relatively accurate flood hazard map to convey inundation risk due to sea surge. A Boolean overlay analysis of four input layers: elevation and slope derived from LiDAR data and distances from streams and catch basins derived from aerial photography and field reconnaissance were used to create a spatial model that explained 55 % of the extent and depth of the flood during Hurricane Sandy. When a ponding layer was added to the previous model to account for depressions that would fill and spill over to nearby areas, the new model explained almost 70 % of the extent and depth of the flood. The study concludes that fairly accurate maps can be created with readily available information and that it is possible to infer a great deal about risk of inundation at the property level, from flood hazard maps. The study goes on to conclude that local communities are encouraged to prepare for disasters, but in reality because of the existing Federal emergency management framework there is very little incentive to do so.

Framework for National Flood Risk Assessment for Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbagy, A. A.; Raja, B.; Lakhanpal, A.; Razavi, S.; Ceola, S.; Montanari, A.

2016-12-01

Worldwide, floods have been identified as a standout amongst the most widely recognized catastrophic events, resulting in the loss of life and property. These natural hazards cannot be avoided, but their consequences can certainly be reduced by having prior knowledge of their occurrence and impact. In the context of floods, the terms occurrence and impact are substituted by flood hazard and flood vulnerability, respectively, which collectively define the flood risk. There is a high need for identifying the flood-prone areas and to quantify the risk associated with them. The present study aims at delivering flood risk maps, which prioritize the potential flood risk areas in Canada. The methodology adopted in this study involves integrating various available spatial datasets such as nightlights satellite imagery, land use, population and the digital elevation model, to build a flexible framework for national flood risk assessment for Canada. The flood risk framework assists in identifying the flood-prone areas and evaluating the associated risk. All these spatial datasets were brought to a common GIS platform for flood risk analysis. The spatial datasets deliver the socioeconomic and topographical information that is required for evaluating the flood vulnerability and flood hazard, respectively. Nightlights have been investigated as a tool to be used as a proxy for the human activities to identify areas with regard to economic investment. However, other datasets, including existing flood protection measures, we added to identify a realistic flood assessment framework. Furthermore, the city of Calgary was used as an example to investigate the effect of using Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of varying resolutions on risk maps. Along with this, the risk map for the city was further enhanced by including the population data to give a social dimension to the risk map. Flood protection measures play a major role by significantly reducing the flood risk of events with a specific return period. An analysis to update the risk maps when information on protection measures is available was carried out for the city of Winnipeg, Canada. The proposed framework is a promising approach to identify and prioritize flood-prone areas, which are in need of intervention or detailed studies.

Differences in flood hazard projections in Europe – their causes and consequences for decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kundzewicz, Z. W.; Krysanova, V.; Dankers, R.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.; Hattermann, F. F.; Huang, S.; Milly, Paul C.D.; Stoffel, M.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Matczak, P.; Quevauviller, P.; Schellnhuber, H.-J.

2017-01-01

This paper interprets differences in flood hazard projections over Europe and identifies likely sources of discrepancy. Further, it discusses potential implications of these differences for flood risk reduction and adaptation to climate change. The discrepancy in flood hazard projections raises caution, especially among decision makers in charge of water resources management, flood risk reduction, and climate change adaptation at regional to local scales. Because it is naïve to expect availability of trustworthy quantitative projections of future flood hazard, in order to reduce flood risk one should focus attention on mapping of current and future risks and vulnerability hotspots and improve the situation there. Although an intercomparison of flood hazard projections is done in this paper and differences are identified and interpreted, it does not seems possible to recommend which large-scale studies may be considered most credible in particular areas of Europe.

An exhaustive approach for identification of flood risk hotspots in data poor regions enforcing combined geomorphic and socio-economic indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, M. P.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

2017-12-01

Many countries across the Globe are victims of floods. To monitor them, various sophisticated algorithms and flood models are used by the scientific community. However, there still lies a gap to efficiently mapping flood risk. The limitations being: (i) scarcity of extensive data inputs required for precise flood modeling, (ii) fizzling performance of models in large and complex terrains (iii) high computational cost and time, and (iv) inexpertise in handling model simulations by civic bodies. These factors trigger the necessity of incorporating uncomplicated and inexpensive, yet precise approaches to identify areas at different levels of flood risk. The present study addresses this issue by utilizing various easily available, low cost data in a GIS environment for a large flood prone and data poor region. A set of geomorphic indicators of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) are analysed through linear binary classification, and are used to identify the flood hazard. The performance of these indicators is then investigated using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, whereas the calibration and validation of the derived flood maps are accomplished through a comparison with dynamically coupled 1-D 2-D flood model outputs. A high degree of similarity on flood inundation proves the reliability of the proposed approach in identifying flood hazard. On the other hand, an extensive list of socio-economic indicators is selected to represent the flood vulnerability at a very finer forward sortation level using multivariate Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). A set of bivariate flood risk maps is derived combining the flood hazard and socio-economic vulnerability maps. Given the acute problem of floods in developing countries, the proposed methodology which may be characterized by low computational cost, lesser data requirement and limited flood modeling complexity may facilitate local authorities and planners for deriving effective flood management strategies.

A method for mapping flood hazard along roads.

PubMed

Kalantari, Zahra; Nickman, Alireza; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

2014-01-15

A method was developed for estimating and mapping flood hazard probability along roads using road and catchment characteristics as physical catchment descriptors (PCDs). The method uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to derive candidate PCDs and then identifies those PCDs that significantly predict road flooding using a statistical modelling approach. The method thus allows flood hazards to be estimated and also provides insights into the relative roles of landscape characteristics in determining road-related flood hazards. The method was applied to an area in western Sweden where severe road flooding had occurred during an intense rain event as a case study to demonstrate its utility. The results suggest that for this case study area three categories of PCDs are useful for prediction of critical spots prone to flooding along roads: i) topography, ii) soil type, and iii) land use. The main drivers among the PCDs considered were a topographical wetness index, road density in the catchment, soil properties in the catchment (mainly the amount of gravel substrate) and local channel slope at the site of a road-stream intersection. These can be proposed as strong indicators for predicting the flood probability in ungauged river basins in this region, but some care is needed in generalising the case study results other potential factors are also likely to influence the flood hazard probability. Overall, the method proposed represents a straightforward and consistent way to estimate flooding hazards to inform both the planning of future roadways and the maintenance of existing roadways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vehicles instability criteria for flood risk assessment of a street network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Huybrechts, Nicolas; Ouahsine, Abdellatif; Chassé, Patrick; Oumeraci, Hocine; Castelli, Fabio

2016-05-01

The mutual interaction between floods and human activity is a process, which has been evolving over history and has shaped flood risk pathways. In developed countries, many events have illustrated that the majority of the fatalities during a flood occurs in a vehicle, which is considered as a safe shelter but it may turn into a trap for several combinations of water depth and velocity. Thus, driving a car in floodwaters is recognized as the most crucial aggravating factor for people safety. On the other hand, the entrainment of vehicles may locally cause obstructions to the flow and induce the collapse of infrastructures. Flood risk to vehicles can be defined as the combination of the probability of a vehicle of being swept away (i.e. the hazard) and the actual traffic/parking density, i.e. the vulnerability. Hazard for vehicles can be assessed through the spatial identification and mapping of the critical conditions for vehicles incipient motion. This analysis requires a flood map with information on water depth and velocity and consistent instability criteria accounting for flood and vehicles characteristics. Vulnerability is evaluated thanks to the road network and traffic data. Therefore, vehicles flood risk mapping can support people's education and management practices in order to reduce the casualties. In this work, a flood hazard classification for vehicles is introduced and an application to a real case study is presented and discussed.

A high-resolution global flood hazard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

2015-09-01

Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

A high‐resolution global flood hazard model†

PubMed Central

Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul D.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

2015-01-01

Abstract Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data‐scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross‐disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ∼90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high‐resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ∼1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ∼5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2‐D only variant and an independently developed pan‐European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next‐generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step‐change improvement in model performance. PMID:27594719

Participatory Mapping for Flood Disaster Zoning based on World View-2 Data in Long Beluah, North Kalimantan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudaryatno; Awanda, Disyacitta; Eka Pratiwi, Sufiyana

2017-12-01

Flood is one of the most frequent disasters in Indonesia. These conditions cause the necessary efforts to reduce the impact of these hazards. To reduce the impact of these hazards is to understand spatially the impact of previous disasters. Participatory mapping is one of the solutions to be able to assist in reducing the impact of flood disaster by conducting flood zoning so it can be known the range of the flood. The community plays an important role in participatory mapping because the experiences and mental maps of the community are the main sources of information used. North Kalimantan Province has a very large watershed area that is in Kayan watershed, there are several villages, one of them is Long Beluah Village. Kayan watershed has a flood problem annually that affects most of the areas including the Long Beluah Village. This study aims to map the zoning of floods in the village of Long Beluah in a participatory manner using remote sensing World View-2 data within community, so that people also understand the conditions they face. The method for achieving that goal is participatory mapping which means community involvement as well as the ability of community mental maps that will make an important contribution in this research. The results of this study show that flood zoning can be mapped based on experience and community mental maps that the greatest floods in February 2015 inundated most of the community settlements in Long Beluah Village. There are few places from the uninhabited areas of settlements and serve as refugee camps. The participatory zonation map of the participatory floods is quite appropriate with the situation at the time of the greatest flood that hit the village of Long Beluah, so that through the map can be drawn up plans to reduce the impact of such disasters such as evacuation routes and a more strategic refuge point.

Geomorphologic flood-hazard assessment of alluvial fans and piedmonts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, J.J.; Pearthree, P.A.

1997-01-01

Geomorphologic studies are an excellent means of flood-hazard assessment on alluvial fans and piedmonts in the southwestern United States. Inactive, flood-free, alluvial fans display well developed soils, desert pavement, rock varnish, and tributary drainage networks. These areas are easily distinguished from flood-prone active alluvial fans on aerial photographs and in the field. The distribution of flood-prone areas associated with alluvial fans is strongly controlled by fanhead trenches dissecting the surface. Where fanhead trenches are permanent features cut in response to long-term conditions such as tectonic quiescence, flood-prone surfaces are situated down-slope from the mountain front and their positions are stable for thousands of years. Since the length and permanency of fanhead trenches can vary greatly between adjacent drainages, it is not appropriate to use regional generalizations to evaluate the distribution and stability of flood-hazard zones. Site-specific geomorphologic studies must be carried out if piedmont areas with a high risk of flooding are to be correctly identified and losses due to alluvial-fan flooding minimized. To meet the growing demand for trained professionals to complete geomorphologic maps of desert piedmonts, undergraduate and graduate geomorphology courses should adopt an instructional unit on alluvial-fan flood hazards that includes: 1) a review of geomorphologic characteristics that vary with surface age; 2) a basic mapping exercise; and 3) a discussion of the causes of fanhead trenching.

Increasing resilience through participative flood risk map design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Spira, Yvonne; Stickler, Therese

2013-04-01

In recent years, an increasing number of flood hazards has shown to the European Commission and the Member States of the European Union the importance of flood risk management strategies in order to reduce losses and to protect the environment and the citizens. Exposure to floods as well as flood vulnerability might increase across Europe due to the ongoing economic development in many EU countries. Thus even without taking climate change into account an increase of flood disasters in Europe might be foreseeable. These circumstances have produced a reaction in the European Commission, and a Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks was issued as one of the three components of the European Action Programme on Flood Risk Management. Floods have the potential to jeopardise economic development, above all due to an increase of human activities in floodplains and the reduction of natural water retention by land use activities. As a result, an increase in the likelihood and adverse impacts of flood events is expected. Therefore, concentrated action is needed at the European level to avoid severe impacts on human life and property. In order to have an effective tool available for gathering information, as well as a valuable basis for priority setting and further technical, financial and political decisions regarding flood risk mitigation and management, it is necessary to provide for the establishment of flood risk maps which show the potential adverse consequences associated with different flood scenarios. So far, hazard and risk maps are compiled in terms of a top-down linear approach: planning authorities take the responsibility to create and implement these maps on different national and local scales, and the general public will only be informed about the outcomes (EU Floods Directive, Article 10). For the flood risk management plans, however, an "active involvement of interested parties" is required, which means at least some kind of multilateral consultation on the management plans that allows stakeholders to discuss relevant issues and to contribute to arguments and propositions put forward by the stakeholders. Through a wider stakeholder participation and more effective communication, awareness of flood risks should be raised. With the term participation diverse voluntary and informal forms of inclusion are summarized (in contrast to legal forms of participation like the status as a party). When discussing the theoretical and practical implications of participation in flood risk management, it is important to make a clear distinction between public and stakeholder participation. The broad public is "everybody" and refers to the participation by non-organised individuals as members of the general public, and specifically to individuals whose profession is not connected to flood risk management. As such, they have to be regarded as lay persons, which, nevertheless, does not mean that these individuals do not have any idea about the hazard they are exposed to or can contribute to the quality of an decision making process. In contrast to professionally interested parties, this group is typically comprised of individuals with different individual perspectives on flood risk management. It is argued that including practical knowledge and perceptions (reflecting values and preferences) into the flood risk management process is - apart from professional assessments (as systematic knowledge) - a milestone towards adequate governance structures in any institutional process with political legitimacy. Neither normative concepts like sustainable development or "Good Governance" nor the European Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC do specify what public participation or the participation of user means in detail. As also scientific literature offers no consistent definition of public participation and stakeholder participation we developed an innovative approach used in the pilot project Krems, Austria. The most innovative step regarding participation was not the methods used for participation but the involvement of concerned lay persons not only in the design of the hazard and risk maps or the risk assessments itself but the cooperative elaboration of the risk assessment approach especially for the harbour area. Following these principles, flood risk maps were created in the underlying EU-project DANUBE FLOODRISK. In this ETC SEE project "DANUBE FLOODRISK - Stakeholder Oriented Assessment of the Danube Floodplains" (2009-2012), hazard and risk maps harmonized across borders for the Danube main stream were produced. This way the overall DANUBE FLOODRISK project contributed to Article 6 of the EU Floods Directive, the hazard and risk maps for international river basins, and provides with the involvement of the national and regional stakeholders the first step to the implementation of Article 7, the Flood Risk Management Plans. By testing the involvement of the broad public and local stakeholders, first exemplary steps were taken for local flood risk management planning. A first set of maps was created for an underlying hazard scenario of a 1-in-100 year flood affecting the city of Krems assuming a failure of the temporal flood protection due to the impact of a ship in the area of the pier. Moreover, both, hazard scenarios with and without a second line of defence were visualised. The set of maps includes (a) an evaluative risk map showing the risk qualitatively aggregated for each building exposed and the number of affected citizens, (b) an evaluative risk map showing the risk qualitatively aggregated per square footage for each building exposed and the number of affected citizens, (c) an evaluative risk map showing the risk quantitatively in monetary units per square footage for each building exposed and the number of affected citizens, and (d) as well as (e) risk maps according to (a) and (b) without the second line of defence in order to communicate the effectiveness of temporal flood protection. For the harbour of Krems, a risk map was compiled based on a self-evaluation of the effects of flooding by the harbour companies. This risk map was based on the assumption of a failure of the harbour gate during a flood event. The self-evaluation was undertaken based on a developed risk matrix which includes significant adverse impacts on human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity. Insights on stakeholder-oriented risk communication were gained with respect to the design and the layout of the maps. Specific elements of semiology for the cartographic representation were deduced. The pilot initiative discussed in this paper is brought added value to all involved parties so far. All participants brought in knowledge, data and time resources. The project team was involved in a social learning process and gained additional know-how about adequate stakeholder involvement and communication as well as about risk assessment methods and mapping. It could be shown that it is possible to involve lay persons in topics such as risk assessments so far only defined by technical experts. Stakeholders from the harbour area were not only involved in the risk assessment but also in the development of the methods for this risk assessment. Such approaches may be increasingly used to develop a better understanding of flood risk within affected communities, and thus increase flood resilience.

Exposure and vulnerability assessment of buildings extracted from lidar derived datasets in Bucao River floodplains, Zambales, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paz-Alberto, Annie Melinda; Ramos, Gloria N.; Espiritu, Jo Adrianne; Mapanao, Kathrina M.; Lao, Ranilo B.

2017-09-01

The Philippines has a geographic and geological setting that make it prone to various hazards including weather and climate-related. It is usually strongly affected by monsoon and typhoon occurrences that cause floods due to torrential rains that causes great risks in man's life and properties, resulting in a significant national loss. Strategies for disaster prevention to protect human lives, properties and social infrastructure is therefore necessary. Different important parameters in disaster risk management such as earth observations, Light Detection and Ranging and Geographic Information System were integrated and utilized in this study. This study dealt with mapping and assessment of buildings that might possibly be exposed and vulnerable to flooding based on the simulated flood maps at different rainfall scenarios in Bucao River Basin. The assessment was done through GIS overlay analysis of the CLSU PHIL-LiDAR 1 Project outputs, the 3D building GIS database and flood hazard maps. Results of this study were series of maps with statistics at different rainfall scenarios. From 23,097 building features extracted, 10,118 buildings, 4,258 buildings and 7,433 buildings were the identified highest number of buildings exposed to flooding and a total of 2,427 buildings, 3,914 buildings and 7,204 buildings from the exposed were identified that had high vulnerabilities in terms of height at low, medium and high hazards of 100 year return period, respectively. Through these maps, it is easier to disseminate information that is more realistic to the residents about the hazardous areas and to help them act on warning and evacuating measures.

Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

2016-06-01

In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the local government units and the concerned communities within Tago River Basin as an aid in determining in an advance manner all those infrastructures (buildings, roads and bridges) and land-cover that can be affected by different extreme rainfall event flood scenarios.

Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

2016-04-01

Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

Improvements on flood alleviation in Germany: lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002.

PubMed

Petrow, Theresia; Thieken, Annegret H; Kreibich, Heidi; Bahlburg, Cord Heinrich; Merz, Bruno

2006-11-01

The increase in damage due to natural disasters is directly related to the number of people who live and work in hazardous areas and continuously accumulate assets. Therefore, land use planning authorities have to manage effectively the establishment and development of settlements in flood-prone areas in order to avoid the further increase of vulnerable assets. Germany faced major destruction during the flood in August 2002 in the Elbe and Danube catchments, and many changes have been suggested in the existing German water and planning regulations. This article presents some findings of a "Lessons Learned" study that was carried out in the aftermath of the flood and discusses the following topics: 1) the establishment of comprehensive hazard maps and flood protection concepts, 2) the harmonization of regulations of flood protection at the federal level, 3) the communication of the flood hazard and awareness strategies, and 4) how damage potential can be minimized through measures of area precaution such as resettlement and risk-adapted land use. Although attempts towards a coordinated and harmonized creation of flood hazard maps and concepts have been made, there is still no uniform strategy at all planning levels and for all states (Laender) of the Federal Republic of Germany. The development and communication of possible mitigation strategies for "unthinkable extreme events" beyond the common safety level of a 100-year flood are needed. In order to establish a sustainable and integrated flood risk management, interdisciplinary and catchment-based approaches are needed.

Adige river in Trento flooding map, 1892: private or public risk transfer?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranzi, Roberto

2016-04-01

For the determination of the flood risk hydrologist and hydraulic engineers focuse their attention mainly to the estimation of physical factors determining the flood hazard, while economists and experts of social sciences deal mainly with the estimation of vulnerability and exposure. The fact that flood zoning involves both hydrological and socio-economic aspects, however, was clear already in the XIX century when the impact of floods on inundated areas started to appear in flood maps, for instance in the UK and in Italy. A pioneering 'flood risk' map for the Adige river in Trento, Italy, was already published in 1892, taking into account in detail both hazard intensity in terms of velocity and depth, frequency of occurrence, vulnerability and economic costs for flood protection with river embankments. This map is likely to be the reinterpreted certainly as a pioneering, and possibly as the first flood risk map for an Italian river and worldwide. Risk levels were divided in three categories and seven sub-categories, depending on flood water depth, velocity, frequency and damage costs. It is interesting to notice the fact that at that time the map was used to share the cost of levees' reparation and enhancement after the severe September 1882 flood as a function of the estimated level of protection of the respective areas against the flood risk. The sharing of costs between public bodies, the railway company and private owners was debated for about 20 years and at the end the public sustained the major costs. This shows how already at that time the economic assessment of structural flood protections was based on objective and rational cost-benefit criteria, that hydraulic risk mapping was perceived by the society as fundamental for the design of flood protection systems and that a balanced cost sharing between public and private was an accepted approach although some protests arose at that time.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Belknap County, New Hampshire

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

DEM Digital Elevation Model DFIRM Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map DOQ Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle DOQQ Digital Ortho Quarter Quadrangle DTM...Agriculture Imag- ery Program (NAIP) color Digital Orthophoto Quadrangles (DOQs)). Remote sensing, base map information, GIS data (for example, contour data...found on USGS topographic maps. More recently developed data were derived from digital orthophotos providing improved base map accuracy. NH GRANIT is

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Coos County, New Hampshire

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

Technical Partner DEM Digital Elevation Model DFIRM Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map DOQ Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle DOQQ Digital Ortho Quarter Quadrangle...color Digital Orthophoto Quadrangles (DOQs)). Remote sensing, base map information, GIS data (for example, contour data, E911 data, Digital Elevation...the feature types found on USGS topographic maps. More recently developed data were derived from digital orthophotos providing improved base map

44 CFR 65.17 - Review of determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... determination; and (5) A copy of the effective NFIP map (Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) or Flood Insurance...) The name of the NFIP community in which the building or manufactured home is located; (ii) The... applies; (iii) The NFIP map panel number and effective date upon which the determination is based; (iv) A...

44 CFR 65.17 - Review of determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... determination; and (5) A copy of the effective NFIP map (Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) or Flood Insurance...) The name of the NFIP community in which the building or manufactured home is located; (ii) The... applies; (iii) The NFIP map panel number and effective date upon which the determination is based; (iv) A...

44 CFR 65.17 - Review of determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... determination; and (5) A copy of the effective NFIP map (Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) or Flood Insurance...) The name of the NFIP community in which the building or manufactured home is located; (ii) The... applies; (iii) The NFIP map panel number and effective date upon which the determination is based; (iv) A...

44 CFR 65.17 - Review of determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... determination; and (5) A copy of the effective NFIP map (Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) or Flood Insurance...) The name of the NFIP community in which the building or manufactured home is located; (ii) The... applies; (iii) The NFIP map panel number and effective date upon which the determination is based; (iv) A...

44 CFR 65.17 - Review of determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... determination; and (5) A copy of the effective NFIP map (Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) or Flood Insurance...) The name of the NFIP community in which the building or manufactured home is located; (ii) The... applies; (iii) The NFIP map panel number and effective date upon which the determination is based; (iv) A...

Overcoming complexities for consistent, continental-scale flood mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Helen; Zaidman, Maxine; Davison, Charlotte

2013-04-01

The EU Floods Directive requires all member states to produce flood hazard maps by 2013. Although flood mapping practices are well developed in Europe, there are huge variations in the scale and resolution of the maps between individual countries. Since extreme flood events are rarely confined to a single country, this is problematic, particularly for the re/insurance industry whose exposures often extend beyond country boundaries. Here, we discuss the challenges of large-scale hydrological and hydraulic modelling, using our experience of developing a 12-country model and set of maps, to illustrate how consistent, high-resolution river flood maps across Europe can be produced. The main challenges addressed include: data acquisition; manipulating the vast quantities of high-resolution data; and computational resources. Our starting point was to develop robust flood-frequency models that are suitable for estimating peak flows for a range of design flood return periods. We used the index flood approach, based on a statistical analysis of historic river flow data pooled on the basis of catchment characteristics. Historical flow data were therefore sourced for each country and collated into a large pan-European database. After a lengthy validation these data were collated into 21 separate analysis zones or regions, grouping smaller river basins according to their physical and climatic characteristics. The very large continental scale basins were each modelled separately on account of their size (e.g. Danube, Elbe, Drava and Rhine). Our methodology allows the design flood hydrograph to be predicted at any point on the river network for a range of return periods. Using JFlow+, JBA's proprietary 2D hydraulic hydrodynamic model, the calculated out-of-bank flows for all watercourses with an upstream drainage area exceeding 50km2 were routed across two different Digital Terrain Models in order to map the extent and depth of floodplain inundation. This generated modelling for a total river length of approximately 250,000km. Such a large-scale, high-resolution modelling exercise is extremely demanding on computational resources and would have been unfeasible without the use of Graphics Processing Units on a network of standard specification gaming computers. Our GPU grid is the world's largest flood-dedicated computer grid. The European river basins were split out into approximately 100 separate hydraulic models and managed individually, although care was taken to ensure flow continuity was maintained between models. The flood hazard maps from the modelling were pieced together using GIS techniques, to provide flood depth and extent information across Europe to a consistent scale and standard. After discussing the methodological challenges, we shall present our flood hazard maps and, from extensive validation work, compare these against historical flow records and observed flood extents.

A framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure in mitigating urban flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, Jochen E.; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Sanders, Brett F.

2017-10-01

This research outlines a framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure (GI) performance in mitigating flood hazard in small urban catchments. The urban hydrologic modeling tool (MUSIC) is coupled with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with GI, rainwater tanks and infiltration trenches in particular, can propagate flood management benefits downstream and support intuitive flood hazard maps useful for communicating and planning with communities. The hydrologic and hydraulic models are calibrated based on current catchment conditions, then modified to represent alternative GI scenarios including a complete lack of GI versus a full implementation of GI. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 1-63% and durations from 10 min to 24 h. Flood hazard benefits mapped by the framework include maximum flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Application of the system to the Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment shows that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 h, presently implemented GI reduces downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of GI would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of GI could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing the drowning hazard posed by urban streams and improving the potential for access by emergency responders. For storm durations longer than 3 h, a full implementation of GI lacks the capacity to retain the resulting rainfall depths and only reduces flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%.

Analysis of the French insurance market exposure to floods: a stochastic model combining river overflow and surface runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moncoulon, D.; Labat, D.; Ardon, J.; Onfroy, T.; Leblois, E.; Poulard, C.; Aji, S.; Rémy, A.; Quantin, A.

2013-07-01

The analysis of flood exposure at a national scale for the French insurance market must combine the generation of a probabilistic event set of all possible but not yet occurred flood situations with hazard and damage modeling. In this study, hazard and damage models are calibrated on a 1995-2012 historical event set, both for hazard results (river flow, flooded areas) and loss estimations. Thus, uncertainties in the deterministic estimation of a single event loss are known before simulating a probabilistic event set. To take into account at least 90% of the insured flood losses, the probabilistic event set must combine the river overflow (small and large catchments) with the surface runoff due to heavy rainfall, on the slopes of the watershed. Indeed, internal studies of CCR claim database has shown that approximately 45% of the insured flood losses are located inside the floodplains and 45% outside. 10% other percent are due to seasurge floods and groundwater rise. In this approach, two independent probabilistic methods are combined to create a single flood loss distribution: generation of fictive river flows based on the historical records of the river gauge network and generation of fictive rain fields on small catchments, calibrated on the 1958-2010 Météo-France rain database SAFRAN. All the events in the probabilistic event sets are simulated with the deterministic model. This hazard and damage distribution is used to simulate the flood losses at the national scale for an insurance company (MACIF) and to generate flood areas associated with hazard return periods. The flood maps concern river overflow and surface water runoff. Validation of these maps is conducted by comparison with the address located claim data on a small catchment (downstream Argens).

A high-resolution physically-based global flood hazard map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaheil, Y.; Begnudelli, L.; McCollum, J.

2016-12-01

We present the results from a physically-based global flood hazard model. The model uses a physically-based hydrologic model to simulate river discharges, and 2D hydrodynamic model to simulate inundation. The model is set up such that it allows the application of large-scale flood hazard through efficient use of parallel computing. For hydrology, we use the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model. HRR accounts for surface hydrology using Green-Ampt parameterization. The model is calibrated against observed discharge data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) network, among other publicly-available datasets. The parallel-computing framework takes advantage of the river network structure to minimize cross-processor messages, and thus significantly increases computational efficiency. For inundation, we implemented a computationally-efficient 2D finite-volume model with wetting/drying. The approach consists of simulating flood along the river network by forcing the hydraulic model with the streamflow hydrographs simulated by HRR, and scaled up to certain return levels, e.g. 100 years. The model is distributed such that each available processor takes the next simulation. Given an approximate criterion, the simulations are ordered from most-demanding to least-demanding to ensure that all processors finalize almost simultaneously. Upon completing all simulations, the maximum envelope of flood depth is taken to generate the final map. The model is applied globally, with selected results shown from different continents and regions. The maps shown depict flood depth and extent at different return periods. These maps, which are currently available at 3 arc-sec resolution ( 90m) can be made available at higher resolutions where high resolution DEMs are available. The maps can be utilized by flood risk managers at the national, regional, and even local levels to further understand their flood risk exposure, exercise certain measures of mitigation, and/or transfer the residual risk financially through flood insurance programs.

78 FR 45944 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-30

...; Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-B-1247] Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency... at www.msc.fema.gov for comparison. You may submit comments, identified by Docket No. FEMA-B-1247, to...-4064 or (email) [email protected] ; or visit the FEMA Map Information eXchange (FMIX) online...

Implementing the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) in Austria: Flood Risk Management Plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhold, Clemens

2013-04-01

he Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks (EFD) aims at the reduction of the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with floods in the Community. This task is to be achieved based on three process steps (1) preliminary flood risk assessment (finalised by the end of 2011), (2) flood hazard maps and flood risk maps (due 2013) and (3) flood risk management plans (due 2015). Currently, an interdisciplinary national working group is defining the methodological framework for flood risk management plans in Austria supported by a constant exchange with international bodies and experts. Referring to the EFD the components of the flood risk management plan are (excerpt): 1. conclusions of the preliminary flood risk assessment 2. flood hazard maps and flood risk maps and the conclusions that can be drawn from those maps 3. a description of the appropriate objectives of flood risk management 4. a summary of measures and their prioritisation aiming to achieve the appropriate objectives of flood risk management The poster refers to some of the major challenges in this process, such as the legal provisions, coordination of administrative units, definition of public relations, etc. The implementation of the EFD requires the harmonisation of legal instruments of various disciplines (e.g. water management, spatial planning, civil protection) enabling a coordinated - and ideally binding - practice of flood risk management. This process is highly influenced by the administrative organisation in Austria - federal, provincial and municipality level. The Austrian approach meets this organisational framework by structuring the development of the flood risk management plan into 3 time-steps: (a) federal blueprint, (b) provincial editing and (c) federal finishing as well as reporting to the European Commission. Each time-step addresses different administrative levels and spatial scales accompanied by the active involvement of interested parties.

Physical and Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Low Probability Flooding Events on Coastal Communities

PubMed Central

Prime, Thomas; Brown, Jennifer M.; Plater, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to “surge alone” event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as “brick course” maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community. PMID:25710497

Physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise and low probability flooding events on coastal communities.

PubMed

Prime, Thomas; Brown, Jennifer M; Plater, Andrew J

2015-01-01

Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to "surge alone" event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as "brick course" maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community.

78 FR 14577 - Final Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-06

... regulatory floodways on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) and where applicable, in the supporting Flood Insurance Study (FIS) reports have been made final for the communities listed in the table below. The FIRM... participation in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). In...

Modelling Multi Hazard Mapping in Semarang City Using GIS-Fuzzy Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugraha, A. L.; Awaluddin, M.; Sasmito, B.

2018-02-01

One important aspect of disaster mitigation planning is hazard mapping. Hazard mapping can provide spatial information on the distribution of locations that are threatened by disaster. Semarang City as the capital of Central Java Province is one of the cities with high natural disaster intensity. Frequent natural disasters Semarang city is tidal flood, floods, landslides, and droughts. Therefore, Semarang City needs spatial information by doing multi hazard mapping to support disaster mitigation planning in Semarang City. Multi Hazards map modelling can be derived from parameters such as slope maps, rainfall, land use, and soil types. This modelling is done by using GIS method with scoring and overlay technique. However, the accuracy of modelling would be better if the GIS method is combined with Fuzzy Logic techniques to provide a good classification in determining disaster threats. The Fuzzy-GIS method will build a multi hazards map of Semarang city can deliver results with good accuracy and with appropriate threat class spread so as to provide disaster information for disaster mitigation planning of Semarang city. from the multi-hazard modelling using GIS-Fuzzy can be known type of membership that has a good accuracy is the type of membership Gauss with RMSE of 0.404 the smallest of the other membership and VAF value of 72.909% of the largest of the other membership.

28 CFR 63.7 - Determination of location.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... PROTECTION PROCEDURES § 63.7 Determination of location. (a) In order to determine whether an action is... FIA Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM); or (3) If data on flood elevations, floodways, or coastal high... to (i) Locate the site and the limits of the coastal high hazard area, floodway and of the applicable...

28 CFR 63.7 - Determination of location.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... PROTECTION PROCEDURES § 63.7 Determination of location. (a) In order to determine whether an action is... FIA Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM); or (3) If data on flood elevations, floodways, or coastal high... to (i) Locate the site and the limits of the coastal high hazard area, floodway and of the applicable...

28 CFR 63.7 - Determination of location.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... PROTECTION PROCEDURES § 63.7 Determination of location. (a) In order to determine whether an action is... FIA Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM); or (3) If data on flood elevations, floodways, or coastal high... to (i) Locate the site and the limits of the coastal high hazard area, floodway and of the applicable...

28 CFR 63.7 - Determination of location.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... PROTECTION PROCEDURES § 63.7 Determination of location. (a) In order to determine whether an action is... FIA Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM); or (3) If data on flood elevations, floodways, or coastal high... to (i) Locate the site and the limits of the coastal high hazard area, floodway and of the applicable...

28 CFR 63.7 - Determination of location.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... PROTECTION PROCEDURES § 63.7 Determination of location. (a) In order to determine whether an action is... FIA Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM); or (3) If data on flood elevations, floodways, or coastal high... to (i) Locate the site and the limits of the coastal high hazard area, floodway and of the applicable...

44 CFR 9.7 - Determination of proposed action's location.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT AND PROTECTION OF WETLANDS § 9.7... and 500-year floods and location of floodways and coastal high hazard areas may also be needed to... elevations, floodways, or coastal high hazard areas are needed, or if the map does not delineate the flood...

Harnessing Satellite Imageries in Feature Extraction Using Google Earth Pro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Sim Joseph; Milano, Alan

2016-07-01

Climate change has been a long-time concern worldwide. Impending flooding, for one, is among its unwanted consequences. The Phil-LiDAR 1 project of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), Republic of the Philippines, has developed an early warning system in regards to flood hazards. The project utilizes the use of remote sensing technologies in determining the lives in probable dire danger by mapping and attributing building features using LiDAR dataset and satellite imageries. A free mapping software named Google Earth Pro (GEP) is used to load these satellite imageries as base maps. Geotagging of building features has been done so far with the use of handheld Global Positioning System (GPS). Alternatively, mapping and attribution of building features using GEP saves a substantial amount of resources such as manpower, time and budget. Accuracy-wise, geotagging by GEP is dependent on either the satellite imageries or orthophotograph images of half-meter resolution obtained during LiDAR acquisition and not on the GPS of three-meter accuracy. The attributed building features are overlain to the flood hazard map of Phil-LiDAR 1 in order to determine the exposed population. The building features as obtained from satellite imageries may not only be used in flood exposure assessment but may also be used in assessing other hazards and a number of other uses. Several other features may also be extracted from the satellite imageries.

Flood extent and water level estimation from SAR using data-model integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajadi, O. A.; Meyer, F. J.

2017-12-01

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images have long been recognized as a valuable data source for flood mapping. Compared to other sources, SAR's weather and illumination independence and large area coverage at high spatial resolution supports reliable, frequent, and detailed observations of developing flood events. Accordingly, SAR has the potential to greatly aid in the near real-time monitoring of natural hazards, such as flood detection, if combined with automated image processing. This research works towards increasing the reliability and temporal sampling of SAR-derived flood hazard information by integrating information from multiple SAR sensors and SAR modalities (images and Interferometric SAR (InSAR) coherence) and by combining SAR-derived change detection information with hydrologic and hydraulic flood forecast models. First, the combination of multi-temporal SAR intensity images and coherence information for generating flood extent maps is introduced. The application of least-squares estimation integrates flood information from multiple SAR sensors, thus increasing the temporal sampling. SAR-based flood extent information will be combined with a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to reduce false alarms and to estimate water depth and flood volume. The SAR-based flood extent map is assimilated into the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (Hec-RAS) model to aid in hydraulic model calibration. The developed technology is improving the accuracy of flood information by exploiting information from data and models. It also provides enhanced flood information to decision-makers supporting the response to flood extent and improving emergency relief efforts.

Open Source Web-Based Solutions for Disseminating and Analyzing Flood Hazard Information at the Community Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santillan, M. M.-M.; Santillan, J. R.; Morales, E. M. O.

2017-09-01

We discuss in this paper the development, including the features and functionalities, of an open source web-based flood hazard information dissemination and analytical system called "Flood EViDEns". Flood EViDEns is short for "Flood Event Visualization and Damage Estimations", an application that was developed by the Caraga State University to address the needs of local disaster managers in the Caraga Region in Mindanao, Philippines in accessing timely and relevant flood hazard information before, during and after the occurrence of flood disasters at the community (i.e., barangay and household) level. The web application made use of various free/open source web mapping and visualization technologies (GeoServer, GeoDjango, OpenLayers, Bootstrap), various geospatial datasets including LiDAR-derived elevation and information products, hydro-meteorological data, and flood simulation models to visualize various scenarios of flooding and its associated damages to infrastructures. The Flood EViDEns application facilitates the release and utilization of this flood-related information through a user-friendly front end interface consisting of web map and tables. A public version of the application can be accessed at http://121.97.192.11:8082/. The application is currently expanded to cover additional sites in Mindanao, Philippines through the "Geo-informatics for the Systematic Assessment of Flood Effects and Risks for a Resilient Mindanao" or the "Geo-SAFER Mindanao" Program.

Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

2014-12-01

In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

Creating a Flood Risk Index to Improve Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klima, K.; El Gammal, L.

2017-12-01

While flood risk reduction is an existent discourse and agenda in policy and insurance, vulnerabilities vary between communities; some communities may have aging infrastructure, or an older/poorer population less able to absorb a flood, putting them at increased risk from the hazards. As a result, some are considering environmental justice aspects of flood risk reduction. To date, catastrophe models have focused on creating floodmaps (e.g., NOAA's Sea Level Rise Viewer, Climate Central's Surging Seas), or on linking hydrological models to economic loss models (e.g., HEC-RAS + HAZUS). However, this approach may be highly inequitable between areas of different income (as well as other demographics). Some have begun work on combining hydrology with vulnerability information (e.g., USACE's North Atlantic Comprehensive Coastal Study). To our knowledge, no one has tried to adapt the more advanced known heat risk theory to water risk by combining hydrology information (e.g., HEC-RAS, floodplain maps) with the social vulnerability (e.g., Cutter et al.) of the residents. This project will create a method to combine water hazard data with a derived water vulnerability index to help a community understand their current and future water risk. We will use the case study area of Pittsburgh, PA, which faces severe precipitation and riverine flooding hazards. Building on present literature of factors influencing water vulnerability contextualized to the Pittsburgh region, we will identify, quantify, and map the top factors impacting water vulnerability. We will combine these with flood maps to identify the geospatial distribution of water risk. This work will allow policy makers to identify location-specific aspects of water vulnerability and risk in any community, thus promoting environmental justice. It is possible that this type of original research would create maps of relative water risk that may prove as understandable to the general public as other flood maps, and may also help to promote "just resilience". This presentation will present a method to combine water hazard data with a derived water vulnerability index to present work on the geospatial distribution of water risk in Pittsburgh, PA.

The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigg, M. A.; Birch, C. E.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M. S.; Simpson, A. L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T. J.

2016-09-01

Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products.

PubMed

Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

2015-10-28

Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. © 2015 The Authors.

Evolution of tsunami warning systems and products

PubMed Central

Bernard, Eddie; Titov, Vasily

2015-01-01

Each year, about 60 000 people and $4 billion (US$) in assets are exposed to the global tsunami hazard. Accurate and reliable tsunami warning systems have been shown to provide a significant defence for this flooding hazard. However, the evolution of warning systems has been influenced by two processes: deadly tsunamis and available technology. In this paper, we explore the evolution of science and technology used in tsunami warning systems, the evolution of their products using warning technologies, and offer suggestions for a new generation of warning products, aimed at the flooding nature of the hazard, to reduce future tsunami impacts on society. We conclude that coastal communities would be well served by receiving three standardized, accurate, real-time tsunami warning products, namely (i) tsunami energy estimate, (ii) flooding maps and (iii) tsunami-induced harbour current maps to minimize the impact of tsunamis. Such information would arm communities with vital flooding guidance for evacuations and port operations. The advantage of global standardized flooding products delivered in a common format is efficiency and accuracy, which leads to effectiveness in promoting tsunami resilience at the community level. PMID:26392620

Flood hazards in the Seattle-Tacoma urban complex and adjacent areas, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foxworthy, B.L.; Nassar, E.G.

1975-01-01

Floods are natural hazards that have complicated man's land-use planning for as long as we have had a history. Although flood hzards are a continuing danger, the year-to-year threat cannot be accurately predicted. Also, on any one stream, the time since the last destructive flood might be so long that most people now living near the stream have not experienced such a flood. Because of the unpredictability and common infrequency of disastrous flooding, or out of ignorance about the danger, or perhaps because of an urge to gamble, man tends to focus his attention on only the advantages of the flood-prone areas, rather than the risk due to the occasional major flood. The purposes of this report are to: (1) briefly describe flood hazards in this region, including some that may be unique to the Puget Sound basin, (2) indicate the parts of the area for which flood-hazard data are available, and (3) list the main sources of hydrologic information that is useful for flood-hazard analysis in conjuction with long-range planning. This map-type report is one of a series being prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey to present basic environmental information and interpretations to assist land-use planning in the Puget Sound region.

Understanding the effects of past flood events and perceived and estimated flood risks on individuals' voluntary flood insurance purchase behavior.

PubMed

Shao, Wanyun; Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Kunreuther, Howard; Jackson, Nida; Goidel, Kirby

2017-01-01

Over the past several decades, the economic damage from flooding in the coastal areas has greatly increased due to rapid coastal development coupled with possible climate change impacts. One effective way to mitigate excessive economic losses from flooding is to purchase flood insurance. Only a minority of coastal residents however have taken this preventive measure. Using original survey data for all coastal counties of the United States Gulf Coast merged with contextual data, this study examines the effects of external influences and perceptions of flood-related risks on individuals' voluntary behaviors to purchase flood insurance. It is found that the estimated flood hazard conveyed through the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) flood maps, the intensities and consequences of past storms and flooding events, and perceived flood-related risks significantly affect individual's voluntary purchase of flood insurance. This behavior is also influenced by home ownership, trust in local government, education, and income. These findings have several important policy implications. First, FEMA's flood maps have been effective in conveying local flood risks to coastal residents, and correspondingly influencing their decisions to voluntarily seek flood insurance in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Flood maps therefore should be updated frequently to reflect timely and accurate information about flood hazards. Second, policy makers should design strategies to increase homeowners' trust in the local government, to better communicate flood risks with residents, to address the affordability issue for the low-income, and better inform less educated homeowners through various educational programs. Future studies should examine the voluntary flood insurance behavior across countries that are vulnerable to flooding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the French insurance market exposure to floods: a stochastic model combining river overflow and surface runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moncoulon, D.; Labat, D.; Ardon, J.; Leblois, E.; Onfroy, T.; Poulard, C.; Aji, S.; Rémy, A.; Quantin, A.

2014-09-01

The analysis of flood exposure at a national scale for the French insurance market must combine the generation of a probabilistic event set of all possible (but which have not yet occurred) flood situations with hazard and damage modeling. In this study, hazard and damage models are calibrated on a 1995-2010 historical event set, both for hazard results (river flow, flooded areas) and loss estimations. Thus, uncertainties in the deterministic estimation of a single event loss are known before simulating a probabilistic event set. To take into account at least 90 % of the insured flood losses, the probabilistic event set must combine the river overflow (small and large catchments) with the surface runoff, due to heavy rainfall, on the slopes of the watershed. Indeed, internal studies of the CCR (Caisse Centrale de Reassurance) claim database have shown that approximately 45 % of the insured flood losses are located inside the floodplains and 45 % outside. Another 10 % is due to sea surge floods and groundwater rise. In this approach, two independent probabilistic methods are combined to create a single flood loss distribution: a generation of fictive river flows based on the historical records of the river gauge network and a generation of fictive rain fields on small catchments, calibrated on the 1958-2010 Météo-France rain database SAFRAN. All the events in the probabilistic event sets are simulated with the deterministic model. This hazard and damage distribution is used to simulate the flood losses at the national scale for an insurance company (Macif) and to generate flood areas associated with hazard return periods. The flood maps concern river overflow and surface water runoff. Validation of these maps is conducted by comparison with the address located claim data on a small catchment (downstream Argens).

Heterogeneous Data Fusion Methods for Disaster Risk Assessment using Grid Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

2014-05-01

In recent years, a risk-oriented approach to manage disasters has been adopted. Risk is a function of two arguments: hazard probability and vulnerability [1]. In order to assess flood risk, for example, aggregation of heterogeneous data acquired from multiple sources is required. Outputs from hydrological and hydraulic models make it possible to predict floods; in situ observations such as river level and flows are used for early warning and models calibration. Remote sensing observations can be effectively used for rapid mapping in case of emergencies, and can be assimilated into models. One point that is mutual for all datasets is their geospatial nature. In order to enable operational assessment of disaster risk, appropriate technology is necessary. In this paper we discuss different strategies to heterogeneous data fusion and show their application in the domain of disaster monitoring and risk assessment. In particular, two case-studies are presented. The first one focuses on the use of time-series of satellite imagery to flood hazard mapping and flood risk assessment. Flooded areas are extracted from satellite images to generate a maximum flood extent image for each flood event. These maps are fused to determine relative frequency of inundation (RFI) [2]. The RFI values are compared to relative water depth generated from the LISFLOOD-FP model. The model is calibrated against the satellite-derived flood extent. The model with different combinations of Manning's parameters was run in the Grid environment at Space Research Institute NASU-SSAU [3], and the optimal set of parameters was found. It is shown that RFI and water depth exhibit the same probabilistic distribution which is confirmed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Therefore, it justifies the use of RFI values for risk assessment. The second case-study deals with quantitative estimation of drought risk in Ukraine based on satellite data. Drought hazard mapping is performed based on the use of vegetation health index (VHI) derived from NOAA satellites, and the extreme value theory techniques. Drought vulnerability is assessed by estimating the crop areas and crop yield to quantify potential impact of a drought on crop production. Finally, drought hazard and vulnerability maps are fused to derive a drought risk map. [1] N.N. Kussul, B.V. Sokolov, Y.I. Zyelyk, V.A. Zelentsov, S.V. Skakun, and A.Yu. Shelestov, "Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Heterogeneous Geospatial Information," J. of Autom. and Inf. Sci., 42(12), pp. 32-45, 2010. [2] S. Skakun, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, and O. Kussul, "Flood Hazard and Flood Risk Assessment Using a Time Series of Satellite Images: A Case Study in Namibia," Risk Analysis, 2013, doi: 10.1111/risa.12156. [3] L. Hluchy, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, S. Skakun, O. Kravchenko, Y. Gripich, P. Kopp, E. Lupian, "The Data Fusion Grid Infrastructure: Project Objectives and Achievements," Computing and Informatics, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 319-334, 2010.

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Carroll County, New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.

2006-01-01

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) New Hampshire/Vermont Water Science Center for scoping of flood-hazard mapping needs for Carroll County, New Hampshire, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency agreement Number HSFE01-05X-0018. FEMA is embarking on a map modernization program nationwide to: 1. Gather and develop updated data for all flood prone areas in support of flood plain management. 2. Provide maps and data in a digital format for the improvement in the efficiency and precision of the mapping program. 3. Integrate FEMA's community and state partners into the mapping process One of the priorities for FEMA, Region 1, is to develop updated Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps (DFIRMs) and Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) for Carroll County, New Hampshire. The information provided in this report will be used to develop the scope for the first phase of a multiyear project that will ultimately result in the production of new DFIRMs and FIS for the communities and flooding sources in Carroll County. The average age of the FEMA flood plain maps in Carroll County, New Hampshire is 18 years. Most of these studies were computed in the late 1970s to the mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-30 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the rivers and streams and their flood plains have changed as a result. In addition, as development has occurred, peak flooding has increased downstream of the development from increased flows across impervious surfaces. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. Carroll County gained 3,773 residents between 2000 and 2005. This represents a growth of 8.6 percent compared to 6.0 percent for the state as a whole. Carroll County ranks second (from highest to lowest) out of New Hampshire's 10 counties in terms of rate of population increase. Since 1990, Carroll County has gained 12,029 residents (University of New Hampshire, 2006).

77 FR 18846 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-28

... panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent sciences established to review... Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.dnr.sc.gov/water/flood/comaps.html City...

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to drive urban expansion based on numerous policies visions to mitigate future flood risk along the Meuse River. In particular, we assess the impacts on future flood risk of the prohibition of urban development in high and/or medium flood hazard zones. Acknowledgements The research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.

Mapping Urban Risk: Flood Hazards, Race, & Environmental Justice In New York”

PubMed Central

Maantay, Juliana; Maroko, Andrew

2009-01-01

This paper demonstrates the importance of disaggregating population data aggregated by census tracts or other units, for more realistic population distribution/location. A newly-developed mapping method, the Cadastral-based Expert Dasymetric System (CEDS), calculates population in hyper-heterogeneous urban areas better than traditional mapping techniques. A case study estimating population potentially impacted by flood hazard in New York City compares the impacted population determined by CEDS with that derived by centroid-containment method and filtered areal weighting interpolation. Compared to CEDS, 37 percent and 72 percent fewer people are estimated to be at risk from floods city-wide, using conventional areal weighting of census data, and centroid-containment selection, respectively. Undercounting of impacted population could have serious implications for emergency management and disaster planning. Ethnic/racial populations are also spatially disaggregated to determine any environmental justice impacts with flood risk. Minorities are disproportionately undercounted using traditional methods. Underestimating more vulnerable sub-populations impairs preparedness and relief efforts. PMID:20047020

Flash flood hazard assessment through modelling in small semi-arid watersheds. The example of the Beni Mellal watershed in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werren, G.; Balin, D.; Reynard, E.; Lane, S. N.

2012-04-01

Flood modelling is essential for flood hazard assessment. Modelling becomes a challenge in small, ungauged watersheds prone to flash floods, like the ones draining the town of Beni Mellal (Morocco). Four temporary streams meet in the urban area of Beni Mellal, producing every year sheet floods, harmful to infrastructure and to people. Here, statistical analysis may not give realistic results, but the study of these repeated real flash flood events may provide a better understanding of watershed specific hydrology. This study integrates a larger cooperation project between Switzerland and Morroco, aimed at knowledge transfer in disaster risk reduction, especially through hazard mapping and land-use planning, related to implementation of hazard maps. Hydrologic and hydraulic modelling was carried out to obtain hazard maps. An important point was to find open source data and methods that could still produce a realistic model for the area concerned, in order to provide easy-to-use, cost-effective tools for risk management in developing countries like Morocco, where routine data collection is largely lacking. The data used for modelling is the Web available TRMM 3-Hour 0.25 degree rainfall data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Project (TRMM). Hydrologic modelling for discharge estimation was undertaken using methods available in the HEC-HMS software provided by the US Army Corps of Engineers® (USACE). Several transfer models were used, so as to choose the best-suited method available. As no model calibration was possible for no measured flow data was available, a one-at-the-time sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters chosen, in order to detect their influence on the results. But the most important verification method remained field observation, through post-flood field campaigns aimed at mapping water surfaces and depths in the flooded areas, as well as river section monitoring, where rough discharge estimates could be obtained using empirical equations. Another information source was local knowledge, as people could give a rough estimation of concentration time by describing flood evolution. Finally, hydraulic modelling of the flooded areas in the urban perimeter was performed using the USACE HEC-RAS® software capabilities. A specific challenge at this stage was field morphology, as the flooded areas form large alluvial fans, with very different flood behaviour compared to flood plains. Model "calibration" at this stage was undertaken using the mapped water surfaces and depths. Great care was taken for field geometry design, where field observations, measured cross sections and field images were used to improve the existing DTM data. The model included protection dikes already built by local authorities in their flood-fight effort. Because of flash-flood specific behaviour, only maximal flooded surfaces and flow velocities were simulated through steady flow analysis in HEC-RAS. The discharge estimates obtained for the chosen event were comparable to 10-year return periods as estimated by the watershed authorities. Times of concentration correspond to this previous estimation and to local people descriptions. The modelled water surfaces reflect field reality. Flash-flood modelling demands extensive knowledge of the studied field in order to compensate data scarcity. However, more precise data, like radar rainfall estimates available in Morocco, would definitely improve outputs. In this perspective, better data access at the local level and good use of the available methods could benefit the disaster risk reduction effort as a whole.

75 FR 28492 - Suspension of Community Eligibility

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-21

... Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs) in these communities by publishing a Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM... Do. Joseph County. Emerg; December 15, 1990, Reg; June 4, 2010, Susp. White Pigeon, Village of...

77 FR 56669 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-13

...Comments are requested on proposed flood hazard determinations, which may include additions or modifications of any Base Flood Elevation (BFE), base flood depth, Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) boundary or zone designation, or regulatory floodway on the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and where applicable, in the supporting Flood Insurance Study (FIS) reports for the communities listed in the table below. The purpose of this notice is to seek general information and comment regarding the preliminary FIRM, and where applicable, the FIS report that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has provided to the affected communities. The FIRM and FIS report are the basis of the floodplain management measures that the community is required either to adopt or to show evidence of having in effect in order to qualify or remain qualified for participation in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). In addition, the FIRM and FIS report, once effective, will be used by insurance agents and others to calculate appropriate flood insurance premium rates for new buildings and the contents of those buildings.

Flood damage in Italy: towards an assessment model of reconstruction costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Genovese, Elisabetta; Modica, Marco; Zoboli, Roberto

2016-04-01

Recent decades in Italy have seen a very rapid expansion of urbanisation in terms of physical assets, while demographics have remained stable. Both the characteristics of Italian soil and anthropic development, along with repeated global climatic stress, have made the country vulnerable to floods, the intensity of which is increasingly alarming. The combination of these trends will contribute to large financial losses due to property damage in the absence of specific mitigation strategies. The present study focuses on the province of Sondrio in Northern Italy (area of about 3,200 km²), which is home to more than 180,000 inhabitants and the population is growing slightly. It is clearly a hot spot for flood exposure, as it is primarily a mountainous area where floods and flash floods hit frequently. The model we use for assessing potential flood damage determines risk scenarios by overlaying flood hazard maps and economic asset data. In Italy, hazard maps are provided by Regional Authorities through the Hydrogeological System Management Plan (PAI) based on EU Flood Directive guidelines. The PAI in the study area includes both the large plain and the secondary river system and considers three hazard scenarios of Low, Medium and High Frequency associated with return periods of 20, 200 and 500 years and related water levels. By an overlay of PAI maps and residential areas, visualized on a GIS, we determine which existing built-up areas are at risk for flood according to each scenario. Then we investigate the value of physical assets potentially affected by floods in terms of market values, using the database of the Italian Property Market Observatory (OMI), and in terms of reconstruction costs, by considering synthetic cost indexes of predominant building types (from census information) and PAI water height. This study illustrates a methodology to assess flood damage in urban settlements and aims to determine general guidelines that can be extended throughout Italy. The final objective will be to analyse how the loss prospective can change when mitigation measures, including actions to reduce the flood hazard and strategies to prevent potential consequences, are implemented. Flood impacts and the corresponding value of mitigation measures will be assessed by means of a cost-benefit analysis in accordance with the EU Floods Directive.

75 FR 52861 - Suspension of Community Eligibility

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-30

... Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHAs) in these communities by publishing a Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM.... Duck Hill, Town of, 280118 June 23, 1975, ......do Do. Montgomery County. Emerg; April 2, 1986, Reg...

Spatiotemporal hazard mapping of a flood event "migration" in a transboundary river basin as an operational tool in flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrou, Theodora; Papastergios, Asterios; Parcharidis, Issaak; Chini, Marco

2017-10-01

Flood disaster is one of the heaviest disasters in the world. It is necessary to monitor and evaluate the flood disaster in order to mitigate the consequences. As floods do not recognize borders, transboundary flood risk management is imperative in shared river basins. Disaster management is highly dependent on early information and requires data from the whole river basin. Based on the hypothesis that the flood events over the same area with same magnitude have almost identical evolution, it is crucial to develop a repository database of historical flood events. This tool, in the case of extended transboundary river basins, could constitute an operational warning system for the downstream area. The utility of SAR images for flood mapping, was demonstrated by previous studies but the SAR systems in orbit were not characterized by high operational capacity. Copernicus system will fill this gap in operational service for risk management, especially during emergency phase. The operational capabilities have been significantly improved by newly available satellite constellation, such as the Sentinel-1A AB mission, which is able to provide systematic acquisitions with a very high temporal resolution in a wide swath coverage. The present study deals with the monitoring of a transboundary flood event in Evros basin. The objective of the study is to create the "migration story" of the flooded areas on the basis of the evolution in time for the event occurred from October 2014 till May 2015. Flood hazard maps will be created, using SAR-based semi-automatic algorithms and then through the synthesis of the related maps in a GIS-system, a spatiotemporal thematic map of the event will be produced. The thematic map combined with TanDEM-X DEM, 12m/pixel spatial resolution, will define the non- affected areas which is a very useful information for the emergency planning and emergency response phases. The Sentinels meet the main requirements to be an effective and suitable operational tool in transboundary flood risk management.

44 CFR 59.22 - Prerequisites for the sale of flood insurance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program... public inspection and furnish upon request, for the determination of applicable flood insurance risk... Federal, State, and local agencies and private firms which undertake to study, survey, map, and identify...

GIS data for the Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study to modernize FEMA flood hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Florence L.; Venturato, Angie J.; Geist, Eric L.

2007-01-01

A Tsunami Pilot Study was conducted for the area surrounding the coastal town of Seaside, Oregon, as part of the Federal Emergency Management's (FEMA) Flood Insurance Rate Map Modernization Program (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). The Cascadia subduction zone extends from Cape Mendocino, California, to Vancouver Island, Canada. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities subject to tsunamis generated by far- and near-field (Cascadia) earthquakes. Two goals of the pilot study were to develop probabilistic 100-year and 500-year tsunami inundation maps using Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) and to provide recommendations for improving tsunami hazard assessment guidelines for FEMA and state and local agencies. The study was an interagency effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, and FEMA, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. The pilot study model data and results are published separately as a geographic information systems (GIS) data report (Wong and others, 2006). The flood maps and GIS data are briefly described here.

Flood resilience and uncertainty in flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beven, K.; Leedal, D.; Neal, J.; Bates, P.; Hunter, N.; Lamb, R.; Keef, C.

2012-04-01

Flood risk assessments do not normally take account of the uncertainty in assessing flood risk. There is no requirement in the EU Floods Directive to do so. But given the generally short series (and potential non-stationarity) of flood discharges, the extrapolation to smaller exceedance potentials may be highly uncertain. This means that flood risk mapping may also be highly uncertainty, with additional uncertainties introduced by the representation of flood plain and channel geometry, conveyance and infrastructure. This suggests that decisions about flood plain management should be based on exceedance probability of risk rather than the deterministic hazard maps that are common in most EU countries. Some examples are given from 2 case studies in the UK where a framework for good practice in assessing uncertainty in flood risk mapping has been produced as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium and Catchment Change Network Projects. This framework provides a structure for the communication and audit of assumptions about uncertainties.

Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Straub, Timothy D.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

2006-01-01

Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital maps of the 100-year and 500-year flood plains and the 100-year floodway for each tributary and the main stem of Blackberry Creek were compiled.

Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

2015-12-01

Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

Swift delineation of flood-prone areas over large European regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavares da Costa, Ricardo; Castellarin, Attilio; Manfreda, Salvatore; Samela, Caterina; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Mazzoli, Paolo; Luzzi, Valerio; Bagli, Stefano

2017-04-01

According to the European Environment Agency (EEA Report No 1/2016), a significant share of the European population is estimated to be living on or near a floodplain, with Italy having the highest population density in flood-prone areas among the countries analysed. This tendency, tied with event frequency and magnitude (e.g.: the 24/11/2016 floods in Italy) and the fact that river floods may occur at large scales and at a transboundary level, where data is often sparse, presents a challenge in flood-risk management. The availability of consistent flood hazard and risk maps during prevention, preparedness, response and recovery phases are a valuable and important step forward in improving the effectiveness, efficiency and robustness of evidence-based decision making. The present work aims at testing and discussing the usefulness of pattern recognition techniques based on geomorphologic indices (Manfreda et al., J. Hydrol. Eng., 2011, Degiorgis et al., J Hydrol., 2012, Samela et al., J. Hydrol. Eng., 2015) for the simplified mapping of river flood-prone areas at large scales. The techniques are applied to 25m Digital Elevation Models (DEM) of the Danube, Po and Severn river watersheds, obtained from the Copernicus data and information funded by the European Union - EU-DEM layers. Results are compared to the Pan-European flood hazard maps derived by Alfieri et al. (Hydrol. Proc., 2013) using a set of distributed hydrological (LISFLOOD, van der Knijff et al., Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 2010, employed within the European Flood Awareness System, www.efas.eu) and hydraulic models (LISFLOOD-FP, Bates and De Roo, J. Hydrol., 2000). Our study presents different calibration and cross-validation exercises of the DEM-based mapping algorithms to assess to which extent, and with which accuracy, they can be reproduced over different regions of Europe. This work is being developed under the System-Risk project (www.system-risk.eu) that received funding from the European Union's Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020 under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No. 676027. Keywords: flood hazard, data-scarce regions, large-scale studies, pattern recognition, linear binary classifiers, basin geomorphology, DEM.

Social media for disaster response during floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, D.; van de Vries, C.; Baart, F.; van Swol, R.; Wagemaker, J.; van Loenen, A.

2015-12-01

During floods it is difficult to obtain real-time accurate information about the extent and severity of the hazard. This information is very important for disaster risk reduction management and crisis relief organizations. Currently, real-time information is derived from few sources such as field reports, traffic camera's, satellite images and areal images. However, getting a real-time and accurate picture of the situation on the ground remains difficult. At the same time, people affected by natural hazards increasingly share their observations and their needs through digital media. Unlike conventional monitoring systems, Twitter data contains a relatively large number of real-time ground truth observations representing both physical hazard characteristics and hazard impacts. In the city of Jakarta, Indonesia, the intensity of unique flood related tweets during a flood event, peaked at almost 900 tweets per minute during floods in early 2015. Flood events around the world in 2014/2015 yielded large numbers of flood related tweets: from Philippines (85.000) to Pakistan (82.000) to South-Korea (50.000) to Detroit (20.000). The challenge here is to filter out useful content from this cloud of data, validate these observations and convert them to readily usable information. In Jakarta, flood related tweets often contain information about the flood depth. In a pilot we showed that this type of information can be used for real-time mapping of the flood extent by plotting these observations on a Digital Elevation Model. Uncertainties in the observations were taken into account by assigning a probability to each observation indicating its likelihood to be correct based on statistical analysis of the total population of tweets. The resulting flood maps proved to be correct for about 75% of the neighborhoods in Jakarta. Further cross-validation of flood related tweets against (hydro-) meteorological data is to likely improve the skill of the method.

Improving Flood Risk Maps as a Capacity Building Activity: Fostering Public Participation and Raising Flood Risk Awareness in the German Mulde Region (project RISK MAP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luther, J.; Meyer, V.; Kuhlicke, C.; Scheuer, S.; Unnerstall, H.

2012-04-01

The EU Floods Directive requires the establishment of flood risk maps for high risk areas in all EU Member States by 2013. However, if existing at all, the current practice of risk mapping still shows some deficits: Risk maps are often seen as an information tool rather than a communication tool. This means that e.g. important local knowledge is not incorporated and forms a contrast to the understanding of capacity building which calls for engaging individuals in the process of learning and adapting to change and for the establishment of a more interactive public administration that learns equally from its actions and from the feedback it receives. Furthermore, the contents of risk maps often do not match the requirements of the end users, so that risk maps are often designed and visualised in a way which cannot be easily understood by laypersons and/or which is not suitable for the respective needs of public authorities in risk and flood event management. The project RISK MAP aimed at improving flood risk maps as a means to foster public participation and raising flood risk awareness. For achieving this aim, RISK MAP (1) developed rules for appropriate stakeholder participation enabling the incorporation of local knowledge and preferences; (2) improved the content of risk maps by considering different risk criteria through the use of a deliberative multicriteria risk mapping tool; and (3) improved the visualisation of risk maps in order to produce user-friendly risk maps by applying the experimental graphic semiology (EGS) method that uses the eye tracking approach. The research was carried out in five European case studies where the status quo of risk mapping and the legal framework was analysed, several stakeholder interviews and workshops were conducted, the visual perception of risk maps was tested and - based on this empirical work - exemplary improved risk maps were produced. The presentation and paper will outline the main findings of the project which ended in September 2011, focussing on the participatory aspects in one of the German case studies (the Mulde River in Saxony). In short, different map users such as strategic planners, emergency managers or the (affected) public require different maps, with varying information density and complexity. The purpose of participation may therefore have a substantive rationale (i.e. improving the content, including local knowledge) or a more instrumental rationale (i.e. building trust, raising awareness, increasing legitimacy). The degree to which both rationales are accommodated depends on the project objectives and determines the participants and process type. In the Mulde case study, both the process of collaborating with each other and considering the (local) knowledge and different experiences as well as the results were highly appreciated. Hazard and risk maps are thus not an end-product that could be complemented e.g. by emergency management information on existing or planned defences, evacuation routes, assembly points, but they should be embedded into a participatory maintenance/updating framework. Map visualisation could be enhanced by using more common and/or self-explanatory symbols, text and a limited number of colour grades for hazard and risk information. Keywords: Flood mapping, hazard and risk maps, participation, risk communication, flood risk awareness, emergency management

RASOR flood modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckers, Joost; Buckman, Lora; Bachmann, Daniel; Visser, Martijn; Tollenaar, Daniel; Vatvani, Deepak; Kramer, Nienke; Goorden, Neeltje

2015-04-01

Decision making in disaster management requires fast access to reliable and relevant information. We believe that online information and services will become increasingly important in disaster management. Within the EU FP7 project RASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment and Spatialisation of Risk) an online platform is being developed for rapid multi-hazard risk analyses to support disaster management anywhere in the world. The platform will provide access to a plethora of GIS data that are relevant to risk assessment. It will also enable the user to run numerical flood models to simulate historical and newly defined flooding scenarios. The results of these models are maps of flood extent, flood depths and flow velocities. The RASOR platform will enable to overlay historical event flood maps with observations and Earth Observation (EO) imagery to fill in gaps and assess the accuracy of the flood models. New flooding scenarios can be defined by the user and simulated to investigate the potential impact of future floods. A series of flood models have been developed within RASOR for selected case study areas around the globe that are subject to very different flood hazards: • The city of Bandung in Indonesia, which is prone to fluvial flooding induced by heavy rainfall. The flood hazard is exacerbated by land subsidence. • The port of Cilacap on the south coast of Java, subject to tsunami hazard from submarine earthquakes in the Sunda trench. • The area south of city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, prone to coastal and/or riverine flooding. • The island of Santorini in Greece, which is subject to tsunamis induced by landslides. Flood models have been developed for each of these case studies using mostly EO data, augmented by local data where necessary. Particular use was made of the new TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement) product from the German Aerospace centre (DLR) and EADS Astrium. The presentation will describe the flood models and the flooding scenarios that can be defined by the RASOR end user to support risk management in each area. Ongoing work for three more case studies (Haiti, Po valley in Italy and Jakarta, Indonesia) will also be discussed.

Data assimilation of citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayama, T.; Takara, K. T.

2017-12-01

Many studies in data assimilation in hydrology have focused on the integration of satellite remote sensing and in-situ monitoring data into hydrologic or land surface models. For flood predictions also, recent studies have demonstrated to assimilate remotely sensed inundation information with flood inundation models. In actual flood disaster situations, citizen collected information including local reports by residents and rescue teams and more recently tweets via social media also contain valuable information. The main interest of this study is how to effectively use such citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping. Here we propose a new data assimilation technique based on pre-conducted ensemble inundation simulations and update inundation depth distributions sequentially when local data becomes available. The propose method is composed by the following two-steps. The first step is based on weighting average of preliminary ensemble simulations, whose weights are updated by Bayesian approach. The second step is based on an optimal interpolation, where the covariance matrix is calculated from the ensemble simulations. The proposed method was applied to case studies including an actual flood event occurred. It considers two situations with more idealized one by assuming continuous flood inundation depth information is available at multiple locations. The other one, which is more realistic case during such a severe flood disaster, assumes uncertain and non-continuous information is available to be assimilated. The results show that, in the first idealized situation, the large scale inundation during the flooding was estimated reasonably with RMSE < 0.4 m in average. For the second more realistic situation, the error becomes larger (RMSE 0.5 m) and the impact of the optimal interpolation becomes comparatively less effective. Nevertheless, the applications of the proposed data assimilation method demonstrated a high potential of this method for assimilating citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping in the future.

How do we best estimate fluvial flood risk in urban environments? : The case of the city of Eilenburg, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longo, Elisa; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Mukolwe, Micah

2015-04-01

Flooding is one of the most impactful natural hazards. In particular, by looking at the data of damages from natural hazards in Europe collected in the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) one can see a significant increase over the past four decades of both frequency of floods and associated economic damages. Similarly, dramatic trends are also found by analyzing other types of flood losses, such as the number of people affected by floods, homeless, injured or killed. To deal with the aforementioned increase of flood risk, more and more efforts are being made to promote integrated flood risk management, for instance, at the end of 2007, the European Community (EC) issued the Flood Directive (F.D.) 2007/60/EC. One of the major innovations was that the F.D. 2007/60/C requires Member State to carry out risk maps and then take appropriate measures to reduce the evaluated risk. The main goal of this research was to estimate flood damaging using a computer code based on a recently developed method (KULTURisk, www.kulturisk.eu) and to compare the estimated damage with the observed one. The study area was the municipality of Eilenburg, which in 2002 was subjected to a destructive flood event. Were produced flood damage maps with new procedures (e.g. KULTURisk) and compared the estimates with observed data. This study showed the possibility to extend the lesson learned with the Eilenburg case study in other similar contexts. The outcomes of this test provided interesting insights about the flood risk mapping, which are expected to contribute to raise awareness to the flooding issues,to plan (structural and/or non-structural) measures of flood risk reduction and to support better land-use and urban planning.

Stream network analysis and geomorphic flood plain mapping from orbital and suborbital remote sensing imagery application to flood hazard studies in central Texas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, V. R. (Principal Investigator); Holz, R. K.; Hulke, S. D.; Patton, P. C.; Penteado, M. M.

1975-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Development of a quantitative hydrogeomorphic approach to flood hazard evaluation was hindered by (1) problems of resolution and definition of the morphometric parameters which have hydrologic significance, and (2) mechanical difficulties in creating the necessary volume of data for meaningful analysis. Measures of network resolution such as drainage density and basin Shreve magnitude indicated that large scale topographic maps offered greater resolution than small scale suborbital imagery and orbital imagery. The disparity in network resolution capabilities between orbital and suborbital imagery formats depends on factors such as rock type, vegetation, and land use. The problem of morphometric data analysis was approached by developing a computer-assisted method for network analysis. The system allows rapid identification of network properties which can then be related to measures of flood response.

Analysis of flood hazard under consideration of dike breaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorogushyn, S.; Apel, H.; Lindenschmidt, K.-E.; Merz, B.

2009-04-01

The study focuses on the development and application of a new modelling system which allows a comprehensive flood hazard assessment along diked river reaches under consideration of dike failures. The proposed Inundation Hazard Assessment Model (IHAM) represents a hybrid probabilistic-deterministic model. It comprises three models interactively coupled at runtime. These are: (1) 1D unsteady hydrodynamic model of river channel and floodplain flow between dikes, (2) probabilistic dike breach model which determines possible dike breach locations, breach widths and breach outflow discharges, and (3) 2D raster-based diffusion wave storage cell model of the hinterland areas behind the dikes. Due to the unsteady nature of the 1D and 2D coupled models, the dependence between hydraulic load at various locations along the reach is explicitly considered. The probabilistic dike breach model describes dike failures due to three failure mechanisms: overtopping, piping and slope instability caused by the seepage flow through the dike core (micro-instability). Dike failures for each mechanism are simulated based on fragility functions. The probability of breach is conditioned by the uncertainty in geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters. The 2D storage cell model driven by the breach outflow boundary conditions computes an extended spectrum of flood intensity indicators such as water depth, flow velocity, impulse, inundation duration and rate of water rise. IHAM is embedded in a Monte Carlo simulation in order to account for the natural variability of the flood generation processes reflected in the form of input hydrographs and for the randomness of dike failures given by breach locations, times and widths. The scenario calculations for the developed synthetic input hydrographs for the main river and tributary were carried out for floods with return periods of T = 100; 200; 500; 1000 a. Based on the modelling results, probabilistic dike hazard maps could be generated that indicate the failure probability of each discretised dike section for every scenario magnitude. Besides the binary inundation patterns that indicate the probability of raster cells being inundated, IHAM generates probabilistic flood hazard maps. These maps display spatial patterns of the considered flood intensity indicators and their associated return periods. The probabilistic nature of IHAM allows for the generation of percentile flood hazard maps that indicate the median and uncertainty bounds of the flood intensity indicators. The uncertainty results from the natural variability of the flow hydrographs and randomness of dike breach processes. The same uncertainty sources determine the uncertainty in the flow hydrographs along the study reach. The simulations showed that the dike breach stochasticity has an increasing impact on hydrograph uncertainty in downstream direction. Whereas in the upstream part of the reach the hydrograph uncertainty is mainly stipulated by the variability of the flood wave form, the dike failures strongly shape the uncertainty boundaries in the downstream part of the reach. Finally, scenarios of polder deployment for the extreme floods with T = 200; 500; 1000 a were simulated with IHAM. The results indicate a rather weak reduction of the mean and median flow hydrographs in the river channel. However, the capping of the flow peaks resulted in a considerable reduction of the overtopping failures downstream of the polder with a simultaneous slight increase of the piping and slope micro-instability frequencies explained by a more durable average impoundment. The developed IHAM simulation system represents a new scientific tool for studying fluvial inundation dynamics under extreme conditions incorporating effects of technical flood protection measures. With its major outputs in form of novel probabilistic inundation and dike hazard maps, the IHAM system has a high practical value for decision support in flood management.

Hot wet spots of Swiss buildings - detecting clusters of flood exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Veronika; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2016-04-01

Where are the hotspots of flood exposure in Switzerland? There is no single answer but rather a wide range of findings depending on the databases and methods used. In principle, the analysis of flood exposure is the overlay of two spatial datasets, one on flood hazard and one on assets, e.g. buildings. The presented study aims to test a new developed approach which is based on public available Swiss data. On the hazard side, these are two different types of flood hazard maps each representing a similar return period beyond the dimensioning of structural protection systems. When it comes to assets we use nationwide harmonized data on building, namely a complete dataset of building polygons to which we assign features as volume, residents and monetary value. For the latter we apply findings of multivariate analyses of insurance data. By overlaying building polygons with the flood hazard map we identify the exposed buildings. We analyse the resulting spatial distribution of flood exposure at different levels of scales (local to regional) using administrative units (e.g. municipalities) but also artificial grids with a corresponding size (e.g. 5 000 m). The presentation focuses on the identification of hotspots highlighting the influence of the applied data and methods, e.g. local scan statistics testing intensities within and without potential clusters or log relative exposure surfaces based on kernel intensity estimates. We find a major difference of identified hotspots between absolute values and normalized values of exposure. Whereas the hotspots of flood exposure in absolute figures mirrors the underlying distribution of buildings, the hotspots of flood exposure ratios show very different pictures. We conclude that findings on flood exposure vary depending on the data and moreover the methods used and therefore need to be communicated carefully and appropriate to different stakeholders who may use the information for decision making on flood risk management.

Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thouret, J.-C.; Enjolras, G.; Martelli, K.; Santoni, O.; Luque, J. A.; Nagata, M.; Arguedas, A.; Macedo, L.

2013-02-01

Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our study provides good rationale for the risk zoning of the city, which in turn may be used as an educational tool for better understanding the potential effects of natural hazards and the exposure of the population residing in and around Arequipa. We hope that our work and the risk-zonation maps will provide the impetus and basis for risk-management authorities of the Municipality and the regional government of Arequipa to enforce existing regulations in building in hazardous zones and to adopt an effective long-term strategy to reduce risks from lahar, flash flood, and other natural hazards.

Dynamic Flood Vulnerability Mapping with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Kuhn, C.; Max, S. A.; Sullivan, J.

2015-12-01

Satellites capture the rate and character of environmental change from local to global levels, yet integrating these changes into flood exposure models can be cost or time prohibitive. We explore an approach to global flood modeling by leveraging satellite data with computing power in Google Earth Engine to dynamically map flood hazards. Our research harnesses satellite imagery in two main ways: first to generate a globally consistent flood inundation layer and second to dynamically model flood vulnerability. Accurate and relevant hazard maps rely on high quality observation data. Advances in publicly available spatial, spectral, and radar data together with cloud computing allow us to improve existing efforts to develop a comprehensive flood extent database to support model training and calibration. This talk will demonstrate the classification results of algorithms developed in Earth Engine designed to detect flood events by combining observations from MODIS, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-1. Our method to derive flood footprints increases the number, resolution, and precision of spatial observations for flood events both in the US, recorded in the NCDC (National Climatic Data Center) storm events database, and globally, as recorded events from the Colorado Flood Observatory database. This improved dataset can then be used to train machine learning models that relate spatial temporal flood observations to satellite derived spatial temporal predictor variables such as precipitation, antecedent soil moisture, and impervious surface. This modeling approach allows us to rapidly update models with each new flood observation, providing near real time vulnerability maps. We will share the water detection algorithms used with each satellite and discuss flood detection results with examples from Bihar, India and the state of New York. We will also demonstrate how these flood observations are used to train machine learning models and estimate flood exposure. The final stage of our comprehensive approach to flood vulnerability couples inundation extent with social data to determine which flood exposed communities have the greatest propensity for loss. Specifically, by linking model outputs to census derived social vulnerability estimates (Indian and US, respectively) to predict how many people are at risk.

24 CFR 3285.102 - Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... subpart are as defined in 44 CFR 59.1 of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) regulations. (b... accordance with NFIP regulations. If so located, and before an installation method is agreed upon, the map...

24 CFR 3285.102 - Installation of manufactured homes in flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... subpart are as defined in 44 CFR 59.1 of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) regulations. (b... accordance with NFIP regulations. If so located, and before an installation method is agreed upon, the map...

Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

2014-05-01

Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to decrease future risks. Preliminary results show that the urban extent in Indonesia is projected to increase within 211 to 351% over the period 2000-2030 (5 and 95 percentile). Mainly driven by this rapid urbanization, potential flood losses in Indonesia increase rapidly and are primarily concentrated on the island of Java. The results reveal the large risk-reducing potential of adaptation measures. Since much of the urban development between 2000 and 2030 takes place in flood-prone areas, strategic urban planning (i.e. building in safe areas) may significantly reduce the urban population and infrastructure exposed to flooding. We conclude that a probabilistic risk approach in future flood risk assessment is vital; the drivers behind risk trends (exposure, hazard, vulnerability) should be understood to develop robust and efficient adaptation pathways.

Global coastal flood hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, Dirk; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Haag, Arjen; Verlaan, Martin; Luo, Tianyi

2017-04-01

Over 10% of the world's population lives in low-lying coastal areas (up to 10m elevation). Many of these areas are prone to flooding from tropical storm surges or extra-tropical high sea levels in combination with high tides. A 1 in 100 year extreme sea level is estimated to expose 270 million people and 13 trillion USD worth of assets to flooding. Coastal flood risk is expected to increase due to drivers such as ground subsidence, intensification of tropical and extra-tropical storms, sea level rise and socio-economic development. For better understanding of the hazard and drivers to global coastal flood risk, a globally consistent analysis of coastal flooding is required. In this contribution we present a comprehensive global coastal flood hazard mapping study. Coastal flooding is estimated using a modular inundation routine, based on a vegetation corrected SRTM elevation model and forced by extreme sea levels. Per tile, either a simple GIS inundation routine or a hydrodynamic model can be selected. The GIS inundation method projects extreme sea levels to land, taking into account physical obstructions and dampening of the surge level land inwards. For coastlines with steep slopes or where local dynamics play a minor role in flood behavior, this fast GIS method can be applied. Extreme sea levels are derived from the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Future sea level projections are based on probabilistic sea level rise for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The approach is validated against observed flood extents from ground and satellite observations. The results will be made available through the online Aqueduct Global Flood Risk Analyzer of the World Resources Institute.

Moral Hazard: How The National Flood Insurance Program Is Limiting Risk Reduction

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE December...assessment, floodplain management , and flood insurance. A study of the NFIP concludes that aspects of the program limit risk reduction...floodplain management , risk assessment, disaster recovery, flood insurance claim, pre-flood insurance rate map 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 123 16. PRICE CODE

High resolution global flood hazard map from physically-based hydrologic and hydraulic models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begnudelli, L.; Kaheil, Y.; McCollum, J.

2017-12-01

The global flood map published online at http://www.fmglobal.com/research-and-resources/global-flood-map at 90m resolution is being used worldwide to understand flood risk exposure, exercise certain measures of mitigation, and/or transfer the residual risk financially through flood insurance programs. The modeling system is based on a physically-based hydrologic model to simulate river discharges, and 2D shallow-water hydrodynamic model to simulate inundation. The model can be applied to large-scale flood hazard mapping thanks to several solutions that maximize its efficiency and the use of parallel computing. The hydrologic component of the modeling system is the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) hydrologic model. HRR simulates hydrological processes using a Green-Ampt parameterization, and is calibrated against observed discharge data from several publicly-available datasets. For inundation mapping, we use a 2D Finite-Volume Shallow-Water model with wetting/drying. We introduce here a grid Up-Scaling Technique (UST) for hydraulic modeling to perform simulations at higher resolution at global scale with relatively short computational times. A 30m SRTM is now available worldwide along with higher accuracy and/or resolution local Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) in many countries and regions. UST consists of aggregating computational cells, thus forming a coarser grid, while retaining the topographic information from the original full-resolution mesh. The full-resolution topography is used for building relationships between volume and free surface elevation inside cells and computing inter-cell fluxes. This approach almost achieves computational speed typical of the coarse grids while preserving, to a significant extent, the accuracy offered by the much higher resolution available DEM. The simulations are carried out along each river of the network by forcing the hydraulic model with the streamflow hydrographs generated by HRR. Hydrographs are scaled so that the peak corresponds to the return period corresponding to the hazard map being produced (e.g. 100 years, 500 years). Each numerical simulation models one river reach, except for the longest reaches which are split in smaller parts. Here we show results for selected river basins worldwide.

A hydrodynamic modelling of proposed dams in reducing flood hazard in Kelantan Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maruti, S. F.; Amerudin, S.; Kadir, W. H. W.; Yusof, Z. M.

2018-04-01

Flood is natural disaster that can cause damage and death. The flood that hit Kelantan in 2014 was the worst flood in Malaysian history. Although the disaster could not be avoided, awareness and preparedness could have helped to reduce the impact. Kuala Krai located at the downstream area in Kelantan catchment is the most affected due to the 2014 floods. The confluence of Lebir and Galas rivers into Kelantan river has led to the increase of flood magnitude to the downstream area. Therefore, Kemubu dam and Lebir dam, located along Galas river and Lebir river, respectively, have been proposed by the Kelantan authority to reduce the flood hazard. In this paper, a hydrodynamic modelling study is carried out, which is coupled of 1D and 2D model to simulate the flood event with and without the proposed dams. The model is developed using a Digital Terrain Model (DTM), which was generated from Airborne LiDAR and SRTM data sources. The hydrograph and water level for 2014 floods event were obtained and was set as an input data for boundary conditions. The modelling results of maximum velocity of 33 m/s and water depth of 19 m were used to generate flood hazard map. The result has found that the proposed dams were able to reduce the flood hazard, particularly at Kuala Krai, Kelantan.

A Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System: Development and Application in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Ziyue; Tang, Guoqiang; Long, Di; Ma, Meihong; Hong, Yang

2016-04-01

Flash floods and landslides, triggered by storms, often interact and cause cascading effects on human lives and property. Satellite remote sensing data has significant potential use in analysis of these natural hazards. As one of the regions continuously affected by severe flash floods and landslides, Yunnan Province, located in Southwest China, has a complex mountainous hydrometeorology and suffers from frequent heavy rainfalls from May through to late September. Taking Yunnan as a test-bed, this study proposed a Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System to progressively analysis and evaluate the risk of the multi-hazards based on multisource satellite remote sensing data. First, three standardized rainfall amounts (average daily amount in flood seasons, maximum 1h and maximum 6h amount) from the products of Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) were used as rainfall indicators to derive the StorM Hazard Index (SMHI). In this process, an integrated approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Information-Entropy theory was adopted to determine the weight of each indicator. Then, land cover and vegetation cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products, soil type from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil map, and slope from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data were add as semi-static geo-topographical indicators to derive the Flash Flood Hazard Index (FFHI). Furthermore, three more relevant landslide-controlling indicators, including elevation, slope angle and soil text were involved to derive the LandSlide Hazard Index (LSHI). Further inclusion of GDP, population and prevention measures as vulnerability indicators enabled to consecutively predict the risk of storm to flash flood and landslide, respectively. Consequently, the spatial patterns of the hazard indices show that the southeast of Yunnan has more possibility to encounter with storms than other parts, while the northeast of Yunnan are most susceptible to floods and landslides, which agrees with the distribution of observed flood and landslide events. Moreover, risks for the multi-hazards were classified into four categories. Results show a strong correlation between the distributions of flash flood prone and landslide-prone regions and also highlight the counties with high risk of storms (e.g., Funing and Malipo), flash floods (e.g., Gongshan and Yanjing) and landslides (e.g., Zhaotong and Luxi). Compared to other approaches, the Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System uses a straightforward yet useful indicator-based weighted linear combination method and could be a useful prototype in mapping characteristics of storm-triggered hazards for users at different administrative levels (e.g., catchment, town, county, province and even nation) in China.

Mapping the Historical Probability of Increased Flood Hazard During ENSO Events Using a New 20th Century River Flow Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerton, R.; Cloke, H. L.; Stephens, L.; Woolnough, S. J.; Zsoter, E.; Pappenberger, F.

2016-12-01

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a mode of variability which sees fluctuations between anomalously high or low sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, is known to influence river flow and flooding at the global scale. The anticipation and forecasting of floods is crucial for flood preparedness, and this link, alongside the predictive skill of ENSO up to seasons ahead, may provide an early indication of upcoming severe flood events. Information is readily available indicating the likely impacts of El Niño and La Niña on precipitation across the globe, which is often used as a proxy for flood hazard. However, the nonlinearity between precipitation and flood magnitude and frequency means that it is important to assess the impact of ENSO events not only on precipitation, but also on river flow and flooding. Historical probabilities provide key information regarding the likely impacts of ENSO events. We estimate, for the first time, the historical probability of increased flood hazard during El Niño and La Niña through a global hydrological analysis, using a new 20thCentury ensemble river flow reanalysis for the global river network. This dataset was produced by running the ECMWF ERA-20CM atmospheric reanalysis through a research set-up of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) using the CaMa-Flood hydrodynamic model, to produce a 110-year global reanalysis of river flow. We further evaluate the added benefit of the hydrological analysis over the use of precipitation as a proxy for flood hazard. For example, providing information regarding regions that are likely to experience a lagged influence on river flow compared to the influence on precipitation. Our results map, at the global scale, the probability of abnormally high river flow during any given month during an El Niño or La Niña; information such as this is key for organisations that work at the global scale, such as humanitarian aid organisations, providing a seasons-ahead indicator of potential increased flood hazard that can be used as soon as the event onset is declared, or even earlier, when El Niño or La Niña conditions are first predicted.

On the value of satellite-based river discharge and river flood data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettner, A. J.; Brakenridge, R.; van Praag, E.; Borrero, S.; Slayback, D. A.; Young, C.; Cohen, S.; Prades, L.; de Groeve, T.

2015-12-01

Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide. According to the World Resources Institute, floods impact 21 million people every year and affect the global GDP by $96 billion. Providing accurate flood maps in near-real time (NRT) is critical to their utility to first responders. Also, in times of flooding, river gauging stations on location, if any, are of less use to monitor stage height as an approximation for water surface area, as often the stations themselves get washed out or peak water levels reach much beyond their design measuring capacity. In a joint effort with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the University of Alabama, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) measures NRT: 1) river discharges, and 2) water inundation extents, both with a global coverage on a daily basis. Satellite-based passive microwave sensors and hydrological modeling are utilized to establish 'remote-sensing based discharge stations'. Once calibrated, daily discharge time series span from 1998 to the present. Also, the two MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites provide daily floodplain inundation extent with global coverage at a spatial resolution of 250m. DFO's mission is to provide easy access to NRT river and flood data products. Apart from the DFO web portal, several water extent products can be ingested by utilizing a Web Map Service (WMS), such as is established with for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region through the GeoSUR program portal. This effort includes implementing over 100 satellite discharge stations showing in NRT if a river is flooding, normal, or in low flow. New collaborative efforts have resulted in flood hazard maps which display flood extent as well as exceedance probabilities. The record length of our sensors allows mapping the 1.5 year, 5 year and 25 year flood extent. These can provide key information to water management and disaster response entities.

Analyzing the sensitivity of a flood risk assessment model towards its input data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glas, Hanne; Deruyter, Greet; De Maeyer, Philippe; Mandal, Arpita; James-Williamson, Sherene

2016-11-01

The Small Island Developing States are characterized by an unstable economy and low-lying, densely populated cities, resulting in a high vulnerability to natural hazards. Flooding affects more people than any other hazard. To limit the consequences of these hazards, adequate risk assessments are indispensable. Satisfactory input data for these assessments are hard to acquire, especially in developing countries. Therefore, in this study, a methodology was developed and evaluated to test the sensitivity of a flood model towards its input data in order to determine a minimum set of indispensable data. In a first step, a flood damage assessment model was created for the case study of Annotto Bay, Jamaica. This model generates a damage map for the region based on the flood extent map of the 2001 inundations caused by Tropical Storm Michelle. Three damages were taken into account: building, road and crop damage. Twelve scenarios were generated, each with a different combination of input data, testing one of the three damage calculations for its sensitivity. One main conclusion was that population density, in combination with an average number of people per household, is a good parameter in determining the building damage when exact building locations are unknown. Furthermore, the importance of roads for an accurate visual result was demonstrated.

Observed and forecast flood-inundation mapping application-A pilot study of an eleven-mile reach of the White River, Indianapolis, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kim, Moon H.; Morlock, Scott E.; Arihood, Leslie D.; Kiesler, James L.

2011-01-01

Near-real-time and forecast flood-inundation mapping products resulted from a pilot study for an 11-mile reach of the White River in Indianapolis. The study was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Indiana Silver Jackets hazard mitigation taskforce members, the National Weather Service (NWS), the Polis Center, and Indiana University, in cooperation with the City of Indianapolis, the Indianapolis Museum of Art, the Indiana Department of Homeland Security, and the Indiana Department of Natural Resources, Division of Water. The pilot project showed that it is technically feasible to create a flood-inundation map library by means of a two-dimensional hydraulic model, use a map from the library to quickly complete a moderately detailed local flood-loss estimate, and automatically run the hydraulic model during a flood event to provide the maps and flood-damage information through a Web graphical user interface. A library of static digital flood-inundation maps was created by means of a calibrated two-dimensional hydraulic model. Estimated water-surface elevations were developed for a range of river stages referenced to a USGS streamgage and NWS flood forecast point colocated within the study reach. These maps were made available through the Internet in several formats, including geographic information system, Keyhole Markup Language, and Portable Document Format. A flood-loss estimate was completed for part of the study reach by using one of the flood-inundation maps from the static library. The Federal Emergency Management Agency natural disaster-loss estimation program HAZUS-MH, in conjunction with local building information, was used to complete a level 2 analysis of flood-loss estimation. A Service-Oriented Architecture-based dynamic flood-inundation application was developed and was designed to start automatically during a flood, obtain near real-time and forecast data (from the colocated USGS streamgage and NWS flood forecast point within the study reach), run the two-dimensional hydraulic model, and produce flood-inundation maps. The application used local building data and depth-damage curves to estimate flood losses based on the maps, and it served inundation maps and flood-loss estimates through a Web-based graphical user interface.

44 CFR 70.5 - Letter of Map Amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2012-10-01 2011-10-01 true Letter of Map Amendment. 70.5 Section 70.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program PROCEDURE FOR MAP CORRECTION Mapping Deficiencies Unrelated to...

44 CFR 70.5 - Letter of Map Amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Letter of Map Amendment. 70.5 Section 70.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program PROCEDURE FOR MAP CORRECTION Mapping Deficiencies Unrelated to...

44 CFR 70.5 - Letter of Map Amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Letter of Map Amendment. 70.5 Section 70.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program PROCEDURE FOR MAP CORRECTION Mapping Deficiencies Unrelated to...

44 CFR 70.5 - Letter of Map Amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Letter of Map Amendment. 70.5 Section 70.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program PROCEDURE FOR MAP CORRECTION Mapping Deficiencies Unrelated to...

44 CFR 70.5 - Letter of Map Amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Letter of Map Amendment. 70.5 Section 70.5 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program PROCEDURE FOR MAP CORRECTION Mapping Deficiencies Unrelated to...

The use of remote sensing imagery for environmental land use and flood hazard mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mouat, D. A.; Miller, D. A.; Foster, K. E.

1976-01-01

Flood hazard maps have been constructed for Graham, Yuma, and Yavapai Counties in Arizona using remote sensing techniques. Watershed maps of priority areas were selected on the basis of their interest to the county planning staff and represented areas of imminent or ongoing development and those known to be subject to inundation by storm runoff. Landsat color infrared imagery at scales of 1:1,000,000, 1:500,000, and 1:250,000 was used together with high-altitude aerial photography at scales of 1:120,000 and 1:60,000 to determine drainage patterns and erosional features, soil type, and the extent and type of ground cover. The satellite imagery was used in the form of 70 mm chips for enhancement in a color additive viewer and in all available enlargement modes. Field checking served as the main backup to the interpretations. Areas with high susceptibility to flooding were determined with a high level of confidence from the remotely sensed imagery.

Geomorphic Flood Area (GFA): a DEM-based tool for flood susceptibility mapping at large scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manfreda, S.; Samela, C.; Albano, R.; Sole, A.

2017-12-01

Flood hazard and risk mapping over large areas is a critical issue. Recently, many researchers are trying to achieve a global scale mapping encountering several difficulties, above all the lack of data and implementation costs. In data scarce environments, a preliminary and cost-effective floodplain delineation can be performed using geomorphic methods (e.g., Manfreda et al., 2014). We carried out several years of research on this topic, proposing a morphologic descriptor named Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI) (Samela et al., 2017) and developing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-based procedure able to identify flood susceptible areas. The procedure exhibited high accuracy in several test sites in Europe, United States and Africa (Manfreda et al., 2015; Samela et al., 2016, 2017) and has been recently implemented in a QGIS plugin named Geomorphic Flood Area (GFA) - tool. The tool allows to automatically compute the GFI, and turn it into a linear binary classifier capable of detecting flood-prone areas. To train this classifier, an inundation map derived using hydraulic models for a small portion of the basin is required (the minimum is 2% of the river basin's area). In this way, the GFA-tool allows to extend the classification of the flood-prone areas across the entire basin. We are also defining a simplified procedure for the estimation of the river depth, which may be helpful for large-scale analyses to approximatively evaluate the expected flood damages in the surrounding areas. ReferencesManfreda, S., Nardi, F., Samela, C., Grimaldi, S., Taramasso, A. C., Roth, G., & Sole, A. (2014). Investigation on the use of geomorphic approaches for the delineation of flood prone areas. J. Hydrol., 517, 863-876. Manfreda, S., Samela, C., Gioia, A., Consoli, G., Iacobellis, V., Giuzio, L., & Sole, A. (2016). Flood-prone areas assessment using linear binary classifiers based on flood maps obtained from 1D and 2D hydraulic models. Nat. Hazards, Vol. 79 (2), pp 735-754. Samela, C., Manfreda, S., Paola, F. D., Giugni, M., Sole, A., & Fiorentino, M. (2016). DEM-Based Approaches for the Delineation of Flood-Prone Areas in an Ungauged Basin in Africa. J. Hydrol. Eng,, 06015010. Samela, C., Troy, T. J., & Manfreda, S. (2017a). Geomorphic classifiers for flood-prone areas delineation for data-scarce environments. Adv. Water Resour., 102, 13-28.

Radar image and data fusion for natural hazards characterisation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Zhong; Dzurisin, Daniel; Jung, Hyung-Sup; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong

2010-01-01

Fusion of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images through interferometric, polarimetric and tomographic processing provides an all - weather imaging capability to characterise and monitor various natural hazards. This article outlines interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) processing and products and their utility for natural hazards characterisation, provides an overview of the techniques and applications related to fusion of SAR/InSAR images with optical and other images and highlights the emerging SAR fusion technologies. In addition to providing precise land - surface digital elevation maps, SAR - derived imaging products can map millimetre - scale elevation changes driven by volcanic, seismic and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires and other natural hazards. With products derived from the fusion of SAR and other images, scientists can monitor the progress of flooding, estimate water storage changes in wetlands for improved hydrological modelling predictions and assessments of future flood impacts and map vegetation structure on a global scale and monitor its changes due to such processes as fire, volcanic eruption and deforestation. With the availability of SAR images in near real - time from multiple satellites in the near future, the fusion of SAR images with other images and data is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

77 FR 70454 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-26

... which included a Web page address through which the Preliminary Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM), and... be accessed. The information available through the Web page address has subsequently been updated... through the web page address listed in the table has been updated to reflect the Revised Preliminary...

Natural hazards in Slovene karst areas: Flood risk areas in the Upper Pivka valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravbar, N.; Kovacic, G.

2009-04-01

An overview of exceptional natural processes or natural hazards from the human perspective in Slovene karst areas is made. Some types of natural hazards are typical for karst due to the process of karstification and resulting geomorphological and hydrological characteristics of karst landscapes (presence of voids within the rock, absence of superficial flow and presence of specific karst groundwater flow system), while the others occur evenly in all types of landscapes. However, their impact is different in karst as it is in the non-karst landscapes. Examples of particular phenomenon or events, their frequency of occurrence, expansion and caused damage are presented. Special emphasis is laid on high waters in karst poljes, shallow karst areas or contact karst, where flooding emerges due to the raise of karst groundwater table as a consequence of intensive precipitation or snowmelt. Flooding in karst can also appear due to insufficient swallow capacities of the underground channels, which are not capable of conducting surpluses of inflowing water. In opposite to flash floods, the karst floods are more predictable, since they usually occur in the same areas to the same elevation and in the same season of the year. Inhabitants are easily adapted to this phenomenon, setting the settlements and other important infrastructure on elevations above the highest recorded water level. Usually such flooding does not pose serious threat and causes no serious flood damage, except during extreme events, as it was in the case of the autumn 2000 floods. Case study of the Upper Pivka valley, where floods usually cover around 6.6 km2, is treated and explained. During the intensive rain period from September to November 2000, the groundwater table rose for about 20-35 m above the usual level, causing flooding also in the areas, where they have never been recorded before. Precise mapping of the flooded area extents in the discussed area and the height of the water levels was performed. With the help of the photographic documentation, Golden software and ArsGis 9.1 program tools the surfaces and the volumes of the particular closed flooded areas were calculated and digitized on the map. The continuous surface of the flood extended to 59 ha. Beside the groundwater table rise, a surface stream, which emerged in the ancient Pivka riverbed, additionally contributed to the flooding in the area, especially in the Bač settlement. Though the residents are aware of flood risk and adapted to the floods with some technical provisions (e.g. lifting roads above the usually flooded areas), the long-term spatial plan neglects mapped flood risk areas, but it allows new buildings to be set up. In this manner the need to comprehensive knowledge of the natural hazards problematic is emphasised. A stress is laid also to the well considered land use planning, which is the basis for the reduction or even prevention of negative consequences of such events.

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2012-08-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate. The framework estimates hazard at high resolution (~1 km2) using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood routing model, and importantly, a flood extent downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case-study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard and damage estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database and damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web.

PubMed

Hearn, Paul P; Longenecker, Herbert E; Aguinaldo, John J; Rahav, Ami N

2013-01-01

Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS's newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders.

Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hearn,, Paul P.; Longenecker, Herbert E.; Aguinaldo, John J.; Rahav, Ami N.

2013-01-01

Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS’s newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders.

Flood inundation extent mapping based on block compressed tracing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Dingtao; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Zhang, Yu; Cheng, Liang

2015-07-01

Flood inundation extent, depth, and duration are important factors affecting flood hazard evaluation. At present, flood inundation analysis is based mainly on a seeded region-growing algorithm, which is an inefficient process because it requires excessive recursive computations and it is incapable of processing massive datasets. To address this problem, we propose a block compressed tracing algorithm for mapping the flood inundation extent, which reads the DEM data in blocks before transferring them to raster compression storage. This allows a smaller computer memory to process a larger amount of data, which solves the problem of the regular seeded region-growing algorithm. In addition, the use of a raster boundary tracing technique allows the algorithm to avoid the time-consuming computations required by the seeded region-growing. Finally, we conduct a comparative evaluation in the Chin-sha River basin, results show that the proposed method solves the problem of flood inundation extent mapping based on massive DEM datasets with higher computational efficiency than the original method, which makes it suitable for practical applications.

Use of Remote Sensing Products for the SERVIR Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Policelli, Frederick S.

2010-01-01

The United Nations University (UNU) estimates that floods presently impacts greater than 520 million people per year worldwide, resulting in up to 25,000 annual deaths, extensive homelessness, disaster-induced disease, crop and livestock damage, famine, and other serious harm. Meanwhile, aid agencies such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) are increasingly seeking better information concerning flood hazards in order to plan for and help mitigate the effects of damaging floods. There is fertile ground to continue development of better remote sensing and modeling techniques to help manage flood related disasters. Disaster management and humanitarian aid organizations need accurate and timely information for making decisions regarding deployment of relief teams and emergency supplies during major floods. Flood maps based on the use of satellite data have proven extremely valuable to such organizations for identifying the location, extent, and severity of these events. However, despite extraordinary efforts on the part of remote sensing data providers to rapidly deliver such maps, there is typically a delay of several days or even weeks from the on-set of flooding until such maps are available to the disaster management community. This paper summarizes efforts at NASA to address this problem through development of an integrated and automated process of a) flood forecasting b) flood detection, c) satellite data acquisition, d) rapid flood mapping and distribution, and e) validation of flood forecasting and detection products.

44 CFR 65.3 - Requirement to submit new technical data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... technical data. 65.3 Section 65.3 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY... IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.3 Requirement to submit new technical data. A community's base flood elevations may increase or decrease resulting from physical changes affecting flooding...

77 FR 29678 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-18

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent..., and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/7293.htm... Online at: http://www.dnr.sc.gov/water/flood/comaps.html City of Manning 29 West Boyce Street, Manning...

Flood Risk in Motozintla de Mendoza, Chiapas: An Approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, F.; Novelo-Casanova, D. A.

2012-12-01

The town of Motozintla de Mendoza (15o 22' N and 92o 15' W) is located southern Chiapas, Mexico, and it is highly exposed to flood hazards. This community has suffered the impact of two disaster events due to this natural hazard in less than ten years, the first one in 1998 and the second one in 2005. The objective of this research is to assess the level of flood risk in the community of Motozintla. The methodology consisted of four steps: (1) Identification of the level of flood hazard; (2) Vulnerability assessment considering weighted variables according to their level of incidence on the local risk conditions; (3) Preparation of risk matrices for each area exposed to floods; and 4) Cartographic representation and spatial analysis of the results. We obtained a Geographical Information System (GIS) map for each group of analyzed vulnerabilities (structural, public services, socio-economic, existing plans in case of contingencies, and risk perception) and one map associated to global vulnerability (overposing of all estimated vulnerabilities). These maps demonstrates that the local conditions of structural vulnerability have a high incidence in the generation of risk, differing from the lack of public basic services, which although unfavorable for the population, it is not a deciding factor for preserving life or housing. Another interesting result is that the lack of preparation of the community to face a disaster generates a higher risk level than the other analyzed socioeconomic conditions. The global vulnerability allowed us to determine with greater detail the flood risk levels in the community. Our results indicate that the area in Motozintla with the highest level of flood risk is located in the margins of the Xelajú river, particularly the region that was flooded in 2005, which is precisely the area where the rivers Xelajú, Allende and La Mina meet and the river flow increases. Unfortunately, the northeasters part of this zone had been populated by people that was relocated by the local government due to past flooding events. For these reasons, it is necessary to make urgent decisions for disaster mitigation measures based on results from scientific research and models for territorial planning.

Flood-hazard analysis of four headwater streams draining the Argonne National Laboratory property, DuPage County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.; Zeeb, Hannah L.

2016-11-22

Results of a flood-hazard analysis conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Argonne National Laboratory, for four headwater streams within the Argonne National Laboratory property indicate that the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods would cause multiple roads to be overtopped. Results indicate that most of the effects on the infrastructure would be from flooding of Freund Brook. Flooding on the Northeast and Southeast Drainage Ways would be limited to overtopping of one road crossing for each of those streams. The Northwest Drainage Way would be the least affected with flooding expected to occur in open grass or forested areas.The Argonne Site Sustainability Plan outlined the development of hydrologic and hydraulic models and the creation of flood-plain maps of the existing site conditions as a first step in addressing resiliency to possible climate change impacts as required by Executive Order 13653 “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.” The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN is the hydrologic model used in the study, and the Hydrologic Engineering Center‒River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) is the hydraulic model. The model results were verified by comparing simulated water-surface elevations to observed water-surface elevations measured at a network of five crest-stage gages on the four study streams. The comparison between crest-stage gage and simulated elevations resulted in an average absolute difference of 0.06 feet and a maximum difference of 0.19 feet.In addition to the flood-hazard model development and mapping, a qualitative stream assessment was conducted to evaluate stream channel and substrate conditions in the study reaches. This information can be used to evaluate erosion potential.

An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

2016-06-01

The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure. The CRI-LS provides a set of maps that allow identifying areas within the coastal hazard zone with relative higher risk from climate-related hazards. The method can be used to support coastal planning and management process in selecting the most suitable adaptation measures.

Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study - modernization of FEMA flood hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2006-01-01

FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study. Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines. The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State Agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University. Portland State University, Horning Geosciences, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. Draft copies and a briefing on the contents, results and recommendations of this document were provided to FEMA officials before final publication.

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping at ungauged streams due to roughness coefficient uncertainty in hydraulic modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papaioannou, George; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios; Aronica, Giuseppe T.

2017-04-01

Probabilistic flood inundation mapping is performed and analysed at the ungauged Xerias stream reach, Volos, Greece. The study evaluates the uncertainty introduced by the roughness coefficient values on hydraulic models in flood inundation modelling and mapping. The well-established one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model, HEC-RAS is selected and linked to Monte-Carlo simulations of hydraulic roughness. Terrestrial Laser Scanner data have been used to produce a high quality DEM for input data uncertainty minimisation and to improve determination accuracy on stream channel topography required by the hydraulic model. Initial Manning's n roughness coefficient values are based on pebble count field surveys and empirical formulas. Various theoretical probability distributions are fitted and evaluated on their accuracy to represent the estimated roughness values. Finally, Latin Hypercube Sampling has been used for generation of different sets of Manning roughness values and flood inundation probability maps have been created with the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Historical flood extent data, from an extreme historical flash flood event, are used for validation of the method. The calibration process is based on a binary wet-dry reasoning with the use of Median Absolute Percentage Error evaluation metric. The results show that the proposed procedure supports probabilistic flood hazard mapping at ungauged rivers and provides water resources managers with valuable information for planning and implementing flood risk mitigation strategies.

Estimating floodwater depths from flood inundation maps and topography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, Sagy; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Kettner, Albert; Bates, Bradford; Nelson, Jonathan M.; McDonald, Richard R.; Huang, Yu-Fen; Munasinghe, Dinuke; Zhang, Jiaqi

2018-01-01

Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS-based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large-scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small-scale event for which we use a high-resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.

A humanitarian preparedness toolbox: estimating flood affected figures and exposure of livelihoods to future floods events, using freely available datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paron, Paolo; von Hagen, Craig; Peppino Disperati, Stefano; Hermansyah, Budi; Shaheen, Imra; Jan, Qasim; Berloffa, Andrea; Khan, Ruby; Fakhre, Alam

2013-04-01

Pakistan is highly disaster-prone, with three major flood disasters occurred in the past three years, yet major losses are not inevitable. Farming-based families still struggling to recover from 2010 and 2011 floods have again faced another bad monsoon season in 2012. Meanwhile, the likelihood of yet more natural disasters in the future is high as the phenomenon of climate change is increasing the prevalence of extreme weather conditions. Even with less rainfall, the risk of flooding this year remains high, while many villages have not fully recovered from the 2011-2012 floods. It is of utmost importance to support the most vulnerable rural communities to recover their flood-affected livelihoods. In the meantime, prioritizing disaster preparedness through flood hazard and population mapping is crucial to ensure that realistic contingency plans are in place to deliver an effective and timely response and reduce the impact of floods before they strike. To increase preparedness in future floods, an integrated approach that builds the resilience of flood affected community and enhances emergency preparedness based on reliable data is critical. We present here the innovative methodology developed for estimating population and livelihood that could potentially be affected by a future flood scenario, as well as a methodology for knowing where these people are located, along with an overview of their livelihood pattern. This project has used only freely available dataset, due to the urgency of providing a toolbox to the humanitarian community and the absence of readily available detailed information on natural hazards and exposure in Pakistan. The estimated figures resulting from this project, would provide the Food Security stakeholders with adequate information and data for programming a tailored response in case of floods during future monsoon season. For the purpose of preparedness, understanding the risks, and its potential magnitude, is crucial to provide decision makers with timely information that can serve as a baseline to inform assessments, data analysis and programming of response. Having an estimate of the potentially affected people and agricultural areas before a disaster occurs, can contribute to an organized, appropriate, more timely and targeted response. We also developed a web-based mapping tool to allow remote access to relevant real-time data and scenarios. By combining maps of land cover, crop zones, flood hazard and population, this project has provided essential geographic orientation for food security preparedness analysis, and is essential for the following reasons: i. It provides the basis for quantifying population at risk of food insecurity before a disaster occurs; ii. It provides a stratification for any post-disaster assessment; iii. Combined with a FS&L (Food Security and Livelihood Assessment), it helps to inform the Food Security response analyses and assistance targeting; iv. It complements and inform the district-based HLV (Hazard Livelihood and Vulnerability baseline and contingency plans) with data and analyses at country and provincial level linked with agriculture seasonal calendars, main key production cycles, and seasonal hazards; v. It provides inputs to any future activities under the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) project.

A place-based model for assessing the coherence of the flash floods and socio-economic vulnerability across the Contiguous United States (CONUS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajehei, S.; Moradkhani, H.

2017-12-01

Understanding socio-economic characteristics involving natural hazards potential, vulnerability, and resilience is necessary to address the damages to economy and loss of life from extreme natural hazards. The vulnerability to flash floods is dependent on both biophysical and socio-economic factors. Although the biophysical characteristics (e.g. climate, vegetation, and land use) are informative and useful for predicting spatial and temporal extent of flash floods, they have minimal bearing on predicting when and where flash floods are likely to influence people or damage valuable assets and resources. The socio-economic factors determine spatial and temporal scales of the regions affected by flash floods. In this study, we quantify the socio-economic vulnerability to flash floods across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). A socio-economic vulnerability index was developed, employing Bayesian principal components for each state in the CONUS. For this purpose, extensive sets of social and economic variables from US Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis were used. We developed maps presenting the coincidence of socio-economic vulnerability and the flash floods records. This product can help inform flash flood prevention, mitigation and recovery planning, as well as reducing the flash flood hazards affecting vulnerable places and population.

Flood risk assessment of land pollution hotspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masi, Matteo; Arrighi, Chiara; Iannelli, Renato

2017-04-01

Among the risks caused by extreme events, the potential spread of pollutants stored in land hotspots due to floods is an aspect that has been rarely examined with a risk-based approach. In this contribution, an attempt to estimate pollution risks related to flood events of land pollution hotspots was carried out. Flood risk has been defined as the combination of river flood hazard, hotspots exposure and vulnerability to contamination of the area, i.e. the expected severity of the environmental impacts. The assessment was performed on a geographical basis, using geo-referenced open data, available from databases of land management institutions, authorities and agencies. The list of land pollution hotspots included landfills and other waste handling facilities (e.g., temporary storage, treatment and recycling sites), municipal wastewater treatment plants, liquid waste treatment facilities and contaminated sites. The assessment was carried out by combining geo-referenced data of pollution hotspots with flood hazard maps. We derived maps of land pollution risk based on geographical and geological properties and source characteristics available from environmental authorities. These included information about soil particle size, soil hydraulic conductivity, terrain slope, type of stored pollutants, the type of facility, capacity, size of the area, land use, etc. The analysis was carried out at catchment scale. The case study of the Arno river basin in Tuscany (central Italy) is presented.

The Handling of Hazard Data on a National Scale: A Case Study from the British Geological Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royse, Katherine R.

2011-11-01

This paper reviews how hazard data and geological map data have been combined by the British Geological Survey (BGS) to produce a set of GIS-based national-scale hazard susceptibility maps for the UK. This work has been carried out over the last 9 years and as such reflects the combined outputs of a large number of researchers at BGS. The paper details the inception of these datasets from the development of the seamless digital geological map in 2001 through to the deterministic 2D hazard models produced today. These datasets currently include landslides, shrink-swell, soluble rocks, compressible and collapsible deposits, groundwater flooding, geological indicators of flooding, radon potential and potentially harmful elements in soil. These models have been created using a combination of expert knowledge (from both within BGS and from outside bodies such as the Health Protection Agency), national databases (which contain data collected over the past 175 years), multi-criteria analysis within geographical information systems and a flexible rule-based approach for each individual geohazard. By using GIS in this way, it has been possible to model the distribution and degree of geohazards across the whole of Britain.

Collaborative multi-stakeholder approach to drafting flood risk management plans in Wallonia, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maroy, Edith; Javaux, Mathieu; Vandermosten, Pierre; Englebert, Benjamin

2015-04-01

The Flood Directive 2007/60/CE establishes a common framework within the European Union for assessing and reducing risks posed by floods on human health, the environment, economic activity and cultural heritage. For that purpose, Member States had to establish flood areas and flood risk maps, and subsequently, flood risk management plans (due December 2015). According to the Directive, special attention is to be paid to international coordination for transboundary water courses, integrated management approaches at the catchment scale, cost-effectiveness of measures and public involvement. Management measures must focus on reducing the probability of flooding and the potential consequences of flooding. They must cover prevention, protection and preparedness and must take into account relevant aspects, such as water management, soil management, spatial planning, land use and nature conservation. Floods in Wallonia mostly originate from overflowing of both little sloped rivers and highly reactive rivers but also, from concentrated runoff in the intensely cultivated and erosion-prone region north of the Sambre-Meuse axis. Consequently, walloon flood area maps not only show flood areas based on hydraulic modelling and observations but also runoff concentration axis in agricultural areas. Now released to the public, this information can be used to assess the risk of damage for land planning and erosion control strategies. Incidentally, some 166 km2 were mapped as flood hazard area with a return period of 25 years, 28.8 of which are urbanized or destined to urbanisation and counting of number of approximatively 39.000 people living in those areas. Flood area and flood risk maps should be the starting point of elaborating flood risk management plans. In order to involve the diversity of water managers and stakeholders in the drafting of a management plan for hydrographic districts in Wallonia, responsible authorities decided to mandate scientists and engineers to organize an extensive participatory process. A series of meetings were organised, first, to raise awareness of local managers on the information provided by flood maps and on the objectives of the Directive towards integrated water management. Second, these successive meetings and the use of decision support tools such as a multicriteria analysis matrix allowed the team to collect local information on risks and opportunities, to foster emergence of integrated solutions, and to reach an agreement on priorities at the catchment scale and then at the regional level. This case study provides insights on practicability of using hydrological data on flood hazard in a collaborative, bottom-up approach to flood risk management. Lessons learnt from this project are a foundation for a realistic and effective management plan but limitations of the method and time constrains of this project leave a number of questions as to follow-up, exhaustiveness and cost-effectiveness of measures constituting the plan.

Geohazard monitoring and modelling using Persistent Scatterer Interferometry in the framework of the European project Terrafirma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooksley, Geraint; Arnaud, Alain; Banwell, Marie-Josée

2013-04-01

Increasingly, geohazard risk managers are looking to satellite observations as a promising option for supporting their risk management and mitigation strategies. The Terrafirma project, aimed at supporting civil protection agencies, local authorities in charge of risk assessment and mitigation is a pan-European ground motion information service funded by the European Space Agency's Global Monitoring for Environment and Security initiative. Over 100 services were delivered to organizations over the last ten years. Terrafirma promotes the use of Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) and Persistent Scatterer InSAR (PSI) within three thematic areas for terrain motion analysis: Tectonics, Flooding and Hydrogeology (ground water, landslides and inactive mines), as well as the innovative Wide Area mapping service, aimed at measuring land deformation over very large areas. Terrafirma's thematic services are based on advanced satellite interferometry products; however they exploit additional data sources, including non-EO, coupled with expert interpretation specific to each thematic line. Based on the combination of satellite-derived ground-motion information products with expert motion interpretation, a portfolio of services addressing geo-hazard land motion issues was made available to users. Although not a thematic in itself, the Wide Area mapping product constitutes the fourth quarter of the Terrafirma activities. The wide area processing chain is nearly fully automatic and requires only a little operator interaction. The service offers an operational PSI processing for wide-area mapping with mm accuracy of ground-deformation measurement at a scale of 1:250,000 (i.e. one cm in the map corresponds to 2.5 Km on the ground) on a country or continent level. The WAP was demonstrated using stripmap ERS data however it is foreseen to be a standard for the upcoming Sentinel-1 mission that will be operated in Terrain Observation by Progressive Scan (TOPS) mode. Within each theme, a series of products are offered. The Hydrogeology service delivers geo-information for hydrogeological hazards affecting urban areas, mountainous zones and infra-structures. Areas where groundwater has been severely exploited often experience subsidence as a result. Likewise, many European towns and cities built above abandoned and inactive mines experience strong ground deformation. The hydrogeology theme products study these phenomenon as well as slope instability in mountainous areas. The Tectonics service presents information on seismic hazards. The crustal block boundaries service provides users with information on terrain motion related to major and local faults, earthquake cycles, and vertical deformation sources. The vulnerability map service combines radar satellite date with in situ measurements to identify regions that may be vulnerable in the case of an earthquake. Within the Coastal Lowland and Flood Risk service, the flood plain hazard product assesses flood risk in coastal lowland areas and flood-prone river basins. The advanced subsidence mapping service combines PSI with levelling data and GPS to enable users to interpret subsidence maps within their geodetic reference systems. The flood defence monitoring service focuses on flood protection systems such as dykes and dams. Between 2003 and 2013, Terrafirma delivered services to 51 user organizations in over 25 countries. The archive of datasets is available to organisations involved in geohazard risk management and mitigation. Keywords: Persistent Scatterer Interferometry, Synthetic Aperture Radar, ground motion monitoring, Terrafirma project, multi-hazard analysis

Assessing Flood Risks and Planning for Resiliency in New Jersey: A Case Study on the Use of Online Flood Mapping and Resilience Planning Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auermuller, L. M.; Gatto, J.; Huch, C.

2015-12-01

The highly developed nature of New Jersey's coastline, barrier island and lagoon communities make them particularly vulnerable to storm surge, sea level rise and flooding. The impacts of Hurricane Sandy have enlightened coastal communities to these realities. Recognizing these vulnerabilities, the Jacques Cousteau National Research Reserve (JC NERR), Rutgers Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis (CRSSA), Rutgers Bloustein School and the Barnegat Bay Partnership (BBP) have developed web-based tools to assist NJ's coastal communities in visualizing and planning for future local impacts. NJFloodMapper and NJAdapt are two complementary interactive mapping websites that visualize different current and future flood hazards. These hazard layers can be combined with additional data including critical facilities, evacuation routes, socioeconomic and environmental data. Getting to Resilience is an online self-assessment tool developed to assist communities reduce vulnerability and increase preparedness by linking planning, mitigation, and adaptation. Through this interactive process communities will learn how their preparedness can yield valuable points through voluntary programs like FEMA's Community Rating System and Sustainable Jersey. The assessment process can also increase the community's understanding of where future vulnerabilities should be addressed through hazard mitigation planning. Since Superstorm Sandy, more than thirty communities in New Jersey have been provided technical assistance in assessing their risks and vulnerabilities to coastal hazards, and have begun to understand how to better plan and prepare for short and long-term changes along their shorelines.

Upstream Structural Management Measures for an Urban Area Flooding in Turkey and their Consequences on Flood Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akyurek, Z.; Bozoglu, B.; Girayhan, T.

2015-12-01

Flooding has the potential to cause significant impacts to economic activities as well as to disrupt or displace populations. Changing climate regimes such as extreme precipitation events increase flood vulnerability and put additional stresses on infrastructure. In this study the flood modelling in an urbanized area, namely Samsun-Terme in Blacksea region of Turkey is done. MIKE21 with flexible grid is used in 2- dimensional shallow water flow modelling. 1/1000 scaled maps with the buildings for the urbanized area and 1/5000 scaled maps for the rural parts are used to obtain DTM needed in the flood modelling. The bathymetry of the river is obtained from additional surveys. The main river passing through the urbanized area has a capacity of Q5 according to the design discharge obtained by simple ungauged discharge estimation depending on catchment area only. The effects of the available structures like bridges across the river on the flooding are presented. The upstream structural measures are studied on scenario basis. Four sub-catchments of Terme River are considered as contributing the downstream flooding. The existing circumstance of the Terme River states that the meanders of the river have a major effect on the flood situation and lead to approximately 35% reduction in the peak discharge between upstream and downstream of the river. It is observed that if the flow from the upstream catchments can be retarded through a detention pond constructed in at least two of the upstream catchments, estimated Q100 flood can be conveyed by the river without overtopping from the river channel. The operation of the upstream detention ponds and the scenarios to convey Q500 without causing flooding are also presented. Structural management measures to address changes in flood characteristics in water management planning are discussed. Flood risk is obtained by using the flood hazard maps and water depth-damage functions plotted for a variety of building types and occupancies. The estimated mean annual hazard for the area is calculated as $340 000 and it is estimated that the upstream structural management measures can decrease the direct economic risk 11% for the 500 return period flood.

HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

2018-03-01

The influence of social and economic change on the consequences of natural hazards has been a matter of much interest recently. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, high-resolution data on historical changes in land use, population, or assets available to study this topic. Here, we present the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) database, which contains two parts: (1) HANZE-Exposure with maps for 37 countries and territories from 1870 to 2020 in 100 m resolution and (2) HANZE-Events, a compilation of past disasters with information on dates, locations, and losses, currently limited to floods only. The database was constructed using high-resolution maps of present land use and population, a large compilation of historical statistics, and relatively simple disaggregation techniques and rule-based land use reallocation schemes. Data encompassed in HANZE allow one to "normalize" information on losses due to natural hazards by taking into account inflation as well as changes in population, production, and wealth. This database of past events currently contains 1564 records (1870-2016) of flash, river, coastal, and compound floods. The HANZE database is freely available at https://data.4tu.nl/repository/collection:HANZE.

Geomorphic Flood Area (GFA): a QGIS tool for a cost-effective delineation of the floodplains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samela, Caterina; Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Manfreda, Salvatore

2017-04-01

The importance of delineating flood hazard and risk areas at a global scale has been highlighted for many years. However, its complete achievement regularly encounters practical difficulties, above all the lack of data and implementation costs. In conditions of scarce data availability (e.g. ungauged basins, large-scale analyses), a fast and cost-effective floodplain delineation can be carried out using geomorphic methods (e.g., Manfreda et al., 2011; 2014). In particular, an automatic DEM-based procedure has been implemented in an open-source QGIS plugin named Geomorphic Flood Area - tool (GFA - tool). This tool performs a linear binary classification based on the recently proposed Geomorphic Flood Index (GFI), which exhibited high classification accuracy and reliability in several test sites located in Europe, United States and Africa (Manfreda et al., 2015; Samela et al., 2016, 2017; Samela, 2016). The GFA - tool is designed to make available to all users the proposed procedure, that includes a number of operations requiring good geomorphic and GIS competences. It allows computing the GFI through terrain analysis, turning it into a binary classifier, and training it on the base of a standard inundation map derived for a portion of the river basin (a minimum of 2% of the river basin's area is suggested) using detailed methods of analysis (e.g. flood hazard maps produced by emergency management agencies or river basin authorities). Finally, GFA - tool allows to extend the classification outside the calibration area to delineate the flood-prone areas across the entire river basin. The full analysis has been implemented in this plugin with a user-friendly interface that should make it easy to all user to apply the approach and produce the desired results. Keywords: flood susceptibility; data scarce environments; geomorphic flood index; linear binary classification; Digital elevation models (DEMs). References Manfreda, S., Di Leo, M., Sole, A., (2011). Detection of Flood Prone Areas using Digital Elevation Models, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 16(10), 781-790. Manfreda, S., Nardi, F., Samela, C., Grimaldi, S., Taramasso, A. C., Roth, G., & Sole, A. (2014). Investigation on the Use of Geomorphic Approaches for the Delineation of Flood Prone Areas, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 863-876. Manfreda, S., Samela, C., Gioia, A., Consoli, G., Iacobellis, V., Giuzio, L., & Sole, A. (2015). Flood-prone areas assessment using linear binary classifiers based on flood maps obtained from 1D and 2D hydraulic models. Natural Hazards, Vol. 79 (2), pp 735-754. Samela, C. (2016), 100-year flood susceptibility maps for the continental U.S. derived with a geomorphic method. University of Basilicata. Dataset. Samela, C., Manfreda, S., Paola, F. D., Giugni, M., Sole, A., & Fiorentino, M. (2016). DEM-Based Approaches for the Delineation of Flood-Prone Areas in an Ungauged Basin in Africa. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 21(2), 1-10. Samela, C., Troy, T.J., Manfreda, S. (2017). Geomorphic classifiers for flood-prone areas delineation for data-scarce environments, Advances in Water Resources (under review).

Geospatial Analysis for Flood-Risk Management, Resilience, and US Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinter, N.; Hui, R.; Conrad, D. R.; Schaefer, K.

2016-12-01

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was established in 1968 to curtail unfettered development on US floodplains and spiraling taxpayer expenditures for disaster relief. Currently NFIP underwrites >5 million policies, providing >1.25 trillion in coverage, and taking in >3.5 billion in annual premiums. Cumulative flood-damage payouts to date exceed premiums collected by >$20 billion. Our group has obtained nationwide databases of NFIP flood-damage claims back to 1972, annual policies since 1994, and selective Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) repetitive losses. Attributes include property, claims, and loss characteristics. Other attributes were stripped to maintain policyholder anonymity. At present, locations are to the nearest 0.1° lat/long, zip code, and by community. We combine NFIP data with GIS information from a variety of other sources. Over the past 44 years, 1,625,470 non-zero flood claims are documented. Numbers of claims and losses have increased over time, even with extreme events (Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy) excluded. Flood losses have occurred within 100-year floodplains (1% annual exceedance), in coastal hazard zones, and 25% of claims occur outside of mapped flood-hazard areas. We hypothesize that a many losses outside of FEMA's designated Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) correlate with (1) outdated map panels, (2) contrasting levels of enforcement and mitigation by state. Other distributed flood losses represent stormwater/drainage damage. Claim rates substantially exceed 1%, both in and outside the SFHA, and for "pre-FIRM" and "post-FIRM" structures. This suggests that ≥100-year floods are occurring more frequently than statutory frequencies suggest. For US homeowners, this suggests that flood insurance is a good deal in a variety of settings. The NFIP data analyzed here contrasts with our group's previous, largely model-driven research. Such empirical flood data exclude model assumptions, but add dizzying array of human and political factors into the resulting spatial and temporal patterns. Parsing out the hydrologic, climatic, social, and political factors influencing flood risk and resilience is crucial for sound management of NFIP and other programs. The US Congress will debate reauthorization and possible revision of NFIP in 2017.

Mapping historical information for better understanding the causality factors of past disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudou, Martin; Lang, Michel; Vinet, Freddy; Coeur, Denis

2015-04-01

The Flood Directive of 2007 promotes the use of historical information in order to mitigate the impact of future extreme events. According to this text, the study of past events offers new insights for better understanding the causality factors of a disaster, from hydrometeorological keys to socio-political repercussions of the flood. In this presentation we decided to focus on the study of factors leading to the exceptionality of a hydrological flood event. This aspect is regularly pointed out by the feedbacks carried out after a catastrophic event and remains a subject of debate for risk managers. The role of antecedent meteorological conditions is especially underestimated by local authorities. These factors can however be considered as a key issue to appreciate the exceptional character of a hydrological disaster. For example the 2013 June floods in France that affected the region of Pyrenees revealed the significant contribution of snow melting to the discharges recorded. In an article of 2014, Schröter et al. showed that the soil moisture can be considered as a key driver of the generalised flood hazard intensity that affected Germany over the same month of June 2013. With regard to these assessments, some considerations emerge. Does a diachronic appraisal of past disasters point out the main issues responsible for an exceptional flood hazard level? Is there common causality issues involved into these extreme hydrological events? In order to answer these questions this presentation proposes a comparative analysis of nine major floods that impacted the French territory during the XXth century (from 1910 to 2010). The set is composed by different flood typologies (from torrential events to floods resulting from groundwater level rising) so as to get a complete view of flood risk in France. The methodology proposed relies on a cartographic approach to highlight the causality factors of these past hydrological disasters. For instance, mapping the rainfall data over the representation of the maximum discharges recorded can help to understand the significance of the rainfall event. In some cases, the use of textual historical information allows to emphasize the significance of other factors such as snow melting or the influence of anthropogenic infrastructures. Indeed, mapping historical information seems to be an original approach to represent the various spatial and temporal scales of historical disasters and an interesting tool to explore the exceptionality of the hazard level.

77 FR 18842 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-28

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77 FR 46104 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

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2012-08-02

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78 FR 57646 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-19

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78 FR 36220 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

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77 FR 18839 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-28

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78 FR 21143 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-09

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78 FR 58334 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-23

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Satellite images of the September 2013 flood event in Lyons, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Christopher J.; Friesen, Beverly A.; Wilds, Stanley; Noble, Suzanne; Warner, Harumi; Wilson, Earl M.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Special Applications Science Center (SASC) produced an image base map showing high-resolution remotely sensed data over Lyons, Colorado—a city that was severely affected by the flood event that occurred throughout much of the Colorado Front Range in September of 2013. The 0.5-meter WorldView-2 data products were created from imagery collected by DigitalGlobe on September 13 and September 24, 2013, during and following the flood event. The images shown on this map were created to support flood response efforts, specifically for use in determining damage assessment and mitigation decisions. The raw, unprocessed imagery were orthorectified and pan-sharpened to enhance mapping accuracy and spatial resolution, and reproduced onto a cartographic base map. These maps are intended to provide a snapshot representation of post-flood ground conditions, which may be useful to decisionmakers and the general public. The SASC also provided data processing and analysis support for other Colorado flood-affected areas by creating cartographic products, geo-corrected electro-optical and radar image mosaics, and GIS water cover files for use by the Colorado National Guard, the National Park Service, the U.S. Forest Service, and the flood response community. All products for this International Charter event were uploaded to the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) website (http://hdds.usgs.gov/hdds2/) for distribution.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for El Progreso, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of El Progreso that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Pelo. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of El Progreso as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood on Rio Pelo at El Progreso were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Pelo; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Pelo, 235 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The drainage area and mean annual precipitation estimated for Rio Pelo at El Progreso are 47.4 square kilometers and 1,920 millimeters, respectively.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Choloma, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Choloma that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Choloma. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Choloma as part of the in the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood on Rio Choloma at Choloma were determined using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light detection and ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Choloma; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Choloma, 370 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The drainage area and mean annual precipitation estimated for Rio Choloma at Choloma are 89.5 square kilometers and 2,164 millimeters, respectively.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Catacamas, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Catacamas that would be inundated by a 50-year-flood of Rio Catacamas. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Catacamas as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/ floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood on Rio Catacamas at Catacamas were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Catacamas at Catacamas, 216 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation because there are no long-term stream-gaging stations on the river from which to estimate the discharge. The drainage area and mean annual precipitation estimated for Rio Catacamas at Catacamas are 45.4 square kilometers and 1,773 millimeters, respectively.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Olanchito, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, M.C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Olanchito that would be inundated by a 50-year-flood of Rio Uchapa. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Olanchito as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood discharge of 243 cubic meters per second on Rio Uchapa at Olanchito were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Uchapa; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Uchapa was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The drainage area and mean annual precipitation estimated for Rio Uchapa at Olanchito are 97.1 square kilometers and 1,178 millimeters, respectively.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for La Ceiba, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, M.C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of La Ceiba that would be inundated by a 50-year-flood of Rio Cangrejal. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of La Ceiba as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood discharge of 1,030 cubic meters per second on Rio Cangrejal at La Ceiba were computed using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Cangrejal; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Cangrejal at La Ceiba was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The drainage area and mean annual precipitation estimated for Rio Cangrejal at La Ceiba are 498 square kilometers and 2,306 millimeters, respectively.

78 FR 36212 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

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78 FR 36217 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

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Using Public Input to Create a Better Online Flood Mapping Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eubanks, K. E.; Jackson, C.; Carlberg, B.; Cohen, S.

2017-12-01

One topic of consistent relevance in flooding research is how best to provide information and communicate risk from scientists and researchers to the general public. Additionally, communicators face challenges on how to fully convey the dangers flooding poses in a manner that the public comprehends and will apply to reactions to flooding. Many of the inundation and hazard maps currently in use are highly technical, making it difficult for the average person, without formal education in flooding, to glean valuable information and insight from the intended tools. Working with the public, a set of three surveys were administered via social media to gain insight into public understanding of floods and flooding risk. The surveys indicated that the general population does not have a firm understanding of basic flooding terms or how to navigate current, technical flood inundation maps. The surveys also suggested that those surveyed desire a simpler interface for flood maps that also relates a sense of varying risk. Using the feedback from each survey, a conceptual framework was produced for a set of inundation maps, including more relatable terms and educational components within a user-friendly web interface. Goals for the website, shaped by survey feedback, included simple, readable map layers that convey a sense of uncertainty, a clear and detailed legend, the ability show or hide components of the map, and the option to learn more about flood terminology on the site or via links to outside resources. The public indicated that the final map interface was more concise and simplified than the current inundation map platforms they navigated as part of the first survey, and that the proposed interface was overall more likely to be used. Using public input is one way to bridge the gap between scientific data and predictions to the general public, who need this information. It is vital to provide accurate data in a form that is relatable, and therefore helpful, to the members of the community trying to make educated decisions. The findings on gearing inundation map web interfaces to the public are being used to create tools that are more usable, therefore hopefully saving lives by better informing those in danger of their risk.

Building regional early flood warning systems by AI techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Amin, M. Z. B. M.

2017-12-01

Building early flood warning system is essential for the protection of the residents against flood hazards and make actions to mitigate the losses. This study implements AI technology for forecasting multi-step-ahead regional flood inundation maps during storm events. The methodology includes three major schemes: (1) configuring the self-organizing map (SOM) to categorize a large number of regional inundation maps into a meaningful topology; (2) building dynamic neural networks to forecast multi-step-ahead average inundated depths (AID); and (3) adjusting the weights of the selected neuron in the constructed SOM based on the forecasted AID to obtain real-time regional inundation maps. The proposed models are trained, and tested based on a large number of inundation data sets collected in regions with the most frequent and serious flooding in the river basin. The results appear that the SOM topological relationships between individual neurons and their neighbouring neurons are visible and clearly distinguishable, and the hybrid model can continuously provide multistep-ahead visible regional inundation maps with high resolution during storm events, which have relatively small RMSE values and high R2 as compared with numerical simulation data sets. The computing time is only few seconds, and thereby leads to real-time regional flood inundation forecasting and make early flood inundation warning system. We demonstrate that the proposed hybrid ANN-based model has a robust and reliable predictive ability and can be used for early warning to mitigate flood disasters.

Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

2017-04-01

The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out separately for each peril. Several models were implemented used to simulate the relevant processes involved. These models were fed by global and local climate data and geological data like elevation, slope, land use, soil characteristics etc. Exposure is a measure of the assets and population at risk. An extensive data collection and processing effort was carried out to derive nation-wide exposure data. Vulnerability is a measure of potential exposure losses if a hazardous event occurs. Vulnerability analyses were carried out separately for each peril, because of differences in impact characteristics. Damage functions were derived from asset characteristics and/or experiences from (international) literature. The main project output consists of tables and (GIS-) maps of hazard, exposure and risk. Tables present results at the nation-wide level (admin0), province level (admin1) and district level (admin2). Hazard maps are provided for various return periods, including 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000 years. All maps are stored in a Web-based GIS-platform. This platform contains four separate directories with [1] generic data (catchment boundaries, rivers etc), [2] hazard maps, [3] exposure maps and [4] risk maps for each of the considered perils.

Flood inundation mapping in the Logone floodplain from multi temporal Landsat ETM+ imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, H.; Alsdorf, D. E.; Moritz, M.; Lee, H.; Vassolo, S.

2011-12-01

Yearly flooding in the Logone floodplain makes an impact on agricultural, pastoral, and fishery systems in the Lake Chad Basin. Since the flooding extent and depth are highly variable, flood inundation mapping helps us make better use of water resources and prevent flood hazards in the Logone floodplain. The flood maps are generated from 33 multi temporal Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) during three years 2006 to 2008. Flooded area is classified using a short-wave infrared band whereas open water is classified by Iterative Self-organizing Data Analysis (ISODATA) clustering. The maximum flooding extent in the study area increases up to ~5.8K km2 in late October 2008. The study also provides strong correlation of the flooding extents with water height variations in both the floodplain and the river based on a second polynomial regression model. The water heights are from ENIVSAT altimetry in the floodplain and gauge measurements in the river. Coefficients of determination between flooding extents and water height variations are greater than 0.91 with 4 to 36 days in phase lag. Floodwater drains back to the river and to the northeast during the recession period in December and January. The study supports understanding of the Logone floodplain dynamics in detail of spatial pattern and size of the flooding extent and assists the flood monitoring and prediction systems in the catchment.

Flood Inundation Mapping in the Logone Floodplain from Multi Temporal Landsat ETM+Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Hahn Chul; Alsdorf, Douglas E.; Moritz, Mark; Lee, Hyongki; Vassolo, Sara

2011-01-01

Yearly flooding in the Logone floodplain makes an impact on agricultural, pastoral, and fishery systems in the Lake Chad Basin. Since the flooding extent and depth are highly variable, flood inundation mapping helps us make better use of water resources and prevent flood hazards in the Logone floodplain. The flood maps are generated from 33 multi temporal Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) during three years 2006 to 2008. Flooded area is classified using a short-wave infrared band whereas open water is classified by Iterative Self-organizing Data Analysis (ISODATA) clustering. The maximum flooding extent in the study area increases up to approximately 5.8K km2 in late October 2008. The study also provides strong correlation of the flooding extents with water height variations in both the floodplain and the river based on a second polynomial regression model. The water heights are from ENIVSAT altimetry in the floodplain and gauge measurements in the river. Coefficients of determination between flooding extents and water height variations are greater than 0.91 with 4 to 36 days in phase lag. Floodwater drains back to the river and to the northeast during the recession period in December and January. The study supports understanding of the Logone floodplain dynamics in detail of spatial pattern and size of the flooding extent and assists the flood monitoring and prediction systems in the catchment.

Flood risk management in the Souss watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouaakkaz, Brahim; El Abidine El Morjani, Zine; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; Elhimri, Hamza

2018-05-01

Flooding is the most devasting natural hazards that causes more damage throughout the world. In 2016, for the fourth year in a row, it was the most costly natural disaster, in terms of global economic losses: 62 billion, according to a Benfield's 2016 annual report on climate and natural disasters [1]. The semi-arid to arid Souss watershed is vulnerable to floods, whose the intensity is becoming increasingly alarming and this area does not escape to the effects of this extreme event.. Indeed, the susceptibility of this region to this type of hazard is accentuated by its rapid evolution in terms of demography, uncontrolled land use, anthropogenic actions (uncontrolled urbanization, encroachment of the hydraulic public domain, overgrazing, clearing and deforestation).), and physical behavior of the environment (higher slope, impermeable rocks, etc.). It is in this context, that we have developed a strategic plan of action to manage this risk in the Souss basin in order to reduce the human, economic and environmental losses, after the modeling of the flood hazard in the study area, using georeferenced information systems (GIS), satellite remote sensing space and multi-criteria analysis techniques, as well as the history of major floods. This study, which generated the high resolution 30m flood hazard spatial distribution map of with accuracy of 85%, represents a decision tool to identify and prioririze area with high probability of hazard occurrence. It can also serve as a basis for urban evacuation plans for anticipating and preventing flood risk in the region, in order to ovoid any dramatic disaster.

78 FR 29765 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-21

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID FEMA-2013-0002... inspection at both the online location and the respective community map repository address listed in the... online through the FEMA Map Service Center at www.msc.fema.gov for comparison. Submit comments and/or...

77 FR 50709 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-22

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID FEMA-2012-0003... inspection at both the online location and the respective Community Map Repository address listed in the... online through the FEMA Map Service Center at www.msc.fema.gov for comparison. You may submit comments...

Climate-Related Hazards: A Method for Global Assessment of Urban and Rural Population Exposure to Cyclones, Droughts, and Floods

PubMed Central

Christenson, Elizabeth; Elliott, Mark; Banerjee, Ovik; Hamrick, Laura; Bartram, Jamie

2014-01-01

Global climate change (GCC) has led to increased focus on the occurrence of, and preparation for, climate-related extremes and hazards. Population exposure, the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given hazard event(s) in a given period of time, was the outcome for this analysis. Our objectives were to develop a method for estimating the population exposure at the country level to the climate-related hazards cyclone, drought, and flood; develop a method that readily allows the addition of better datasets to an automated model; differentiate population exposure of urban and rural populations; and calculate and present the results of exposure scores and ranking of countries based on the country-wide, urban, and rural population exposures to cyclone, drought, and flood. Gridded global datasets on cyclone, drought and flood occurrence as well as population density were combined and analysis was carried out using ArcGIS. Results presented include global maps of ranked country-level population exposure to cyclone, drought, flood and multiple hazards. Analyses by geography and human development index (HDI) are also included. The results and analyses of this exposure assessment have implications for country-level adaptation. It can also be used to help prioritize aid decisions and allocation of adaptation resources between countries and within a country. This model is designed to allow flexibility in applying cyclone, drought and flood exposure to a range of outcomes and adaptation measures. PMID:24566046

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Siguatepeque, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Siguatepeque that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Selguapa, Rio Guique, Rio Celan, Rio Calan, and Quebrada Chalantuma. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Siguatepeque as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on each of the streams studied were computed using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and ground surveys at six bridges. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on any of the streams studied; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharges were estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The 50-year-flood discharges estimated for Rio Selguapa, Rio Guique, Rio Celan, Rio Calan, and Quebrada Chalantuma are 323, 168, 161, 146, and 90 cubic meters per second, respectively.

A new approach to the assessment of flooding and dampness hazards in cultural heritage, applied to the historic centre of Seville (Spain).

PubMed

Ortiz, Rocío; Ortiz, Pilar; Martín, José María; Vázquez, María Auxiliadora

2016-05-01

Flooding and dampness have caused considerable damage to historic towns and cities and have become more frequent in recent years. The aim of this paper is to analyse the hazards of flooding and dampness in historic cities to establish a methodology that prioritises preventive conservation actions and restorations. The case study concerns the historic centre of Seville (Spain) and parish churches built between the 13th and 18th centuries. Geographic information system (GIS) software has been used to assess hazards caused by flooding and dampness along with a Delphi consultation process surveying a multidisciplinary group of seven experts-archaeologists, geologists, chemists, architects, engineers and environmentalists-to gain a general overview of the hazards affecting each area of the city. Currently, the historic centre of Seville is at a very low risk of flooding due to the engineering works being undertaken to divert the river course. For flooding to occur, water levels would need to rise over 6 to 12m along the different sections of the defensive walls; as a result, the historic centre has not been flooded since 1961, when these defences broke. However, there is a continual presence of dampness due to the proximity of the river, the presence of underground water and the permeability of the subsoil, resulting in continual damage to the lower sections of the monuments studied. Hence, hazard maps of flooding and dampness need to be dovetailed. This new approach provides tools for decision-makers in the current crisis, allowing them to prioritise strategies that will minimise damage in a town, as the urban unit where territorial policies could be applied. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A simple statistical method for analyzing flood susceptibility with incorporating rainfall and impervious surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Shou-Hao; Chen, Chi-Farn

2016-04-01

Flood, as known as the most frequent natural hazard in Taiwan, has induced severe damages of residents and properties in urban areas. The flood risk is even more severe in Tainan since 1990s, with the significant urban development over recent decades. Previous studies have indicated that the characteristics and the vulnerability of flood are affected by the increase of impervious surface area (ISA) and the changing climate condition. Tainan City, in southern Taiwan is selected as the study area. This study uses logistic regression to functionalize the relationship between rainfall variables, ISA and historical flood events. Specifically, rainfall records from 2001 to 2014 were collected and mapped, and Landsat images of year 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2014 were used to generate the ISA with SVM (support vector machine) classifier. The result shows that rainfall variables and ISA are significantly correlated to the flood occurrence in Tainan City. With applying the logistic function, the likelihood of flood occurrence can be estimated and mapped over the study area. This study suggests the method is simple and feasible for rapid flood susceptibility mapping, when real-time rainfall observations can be available, and it has potential for future flood assessment, with incorporating climate change projections and urban growth prediction.

Validation of a 30m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, C. C.; Wing, O.; Smith, A.; Bates, P. D.; Neal, J. C.

2017-12-01

We present a 30m resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the entire conterminous US that has been used to simulate continent-wide flood extent for ten return periods. The model uses a highly efficient numerical solution of the shallow water equations to simulate fluvial flooding in catchments down to 50 km2 and pluvial flooding in all catchments. We use the US National Elevation Dataset (NED) to determine topography for the model and the US Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset to explicitly represent known flood defences. Return period flows and rainfall intensities are estimated using regionalized frequency analyses. We validate these simulations against the complete catalogue of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area maps. We also compare the results obtained from the NED-based continental model with results from a 90m resolution global hydraulic model built using SRTM terrain and identical boundary conditions. Where the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas are based on high quality local models the NED-based continental scale model attains a Hit Rate of 86% and a Critical Success Index (CSI) of 0.59; both are typical of scores achieved when comparing high quality reach-scale models to observed event data. The NED model also consistently outperformed the coarser SRTM model. The correspondence between the continental model and FEMA improves in temperate areas and for basins above 400 km2. Given typical hydraulic modeling uncertainties in the FEMA maps, it is probable that the continental-scale model can replicate them to within error. The continental model covers the entire continental US, compared to only 61% for FEMA, and also maps flooding in smaller watersheds not included in the FEMA coverage. The simulations were performed using computing hardware costing less than 100k, whereas the FEMA flood layers are built from thousands of individual local studies that took several decades to develop at an estimated cost (up to 2013) of 4.5 - $7.5bn. The continental model is relatively straightforward to modify and could be re-run under different scenarios, such as climate change. The results show that continental-scale models may now offer sufficient rigor to inform some decision-making needs with far lower cost and greater coverage than traditional patchwork approaches.

Updating flood maps efficiently using existing hydraulic models, very-high-accuracy elevation data, and a geographic information system; a pilot study on the Nisqually River, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Joseph L.; Haluska, Tana L.; Kresch, David L.

2001-01-01

A method of updating flood inundation maps at a fraction of the expense of using traditional methods was piloted in Washington State as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Urban Geologic and Hydrologic Hazards Initiative. Large savings in expense may be achieved by building upon previous Flood Insurance Studies and automating the process of flood delineation with a Geographic Information System (GIS); increases in accuracy and detail result from the use of very-high-accuracy elevation data and automated delineation; and the resulting digital data sets contain valuable ancillary information such as flood depth, as well as greatly facilitating map storage and utility. The method consists of creating stage-discharge relations from the archived output of the existing hydraulic model, using these relations to create updated flood stages for recalculated flood discharges, and using a GIS to automate the map generation process. Many of the effective flood maps were created in the late 1970?s and early 1980?s, and suffer from a number of well recognized deficiencies such as out-of-date or inaccurate estimates of discharges for selected recurrence intervals, changes in basin characteristics, and relatively low quality elevation data used for flood delineation. FEMA estimates that 45 percent of effective maps are over 10 years old (FEMA, 1997). Consequently, Congress has mandated the updating and periodic review of existing maps, which have cost the Nation almost 3 billion (1997) dollars. The need to update maps and the cost of doing so were the primary motivations for piloting a more cost-effective and efficient updating method. New technologies such as Geographic Information Systems and LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) elevation mapping are key to improving the efficiency of flood map updating, but they also improve the accuracy, detail, and usefulness of the resulting digital flood maps. GISs produce digital maps without manual estimation of inundated areas between cross sections, and can generate working maps across a broad range of scales, for any selected area, and overlayed with easily updated cultural features. Local governments are aggressively collecting very-high-accuracy elevation data for numerous reasons; this not only lowers the cost and increases accuracy of flood maps, but also inherently boosts the level of community involvement in the mapping process. These elevation data are also ideal for hydraulic modeling, should an existing model be judged inadequate.

Flood risks in urbanized areas - multi-sensoral approaches using remotely sensed data for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taubenböck, H.; Wurm, M.; Netzband, M.; Zwenzner, H.; Roth, A.; Rahman, A.; Dech, S.

2011-02-01

Estimating flood risks and managing disasters combines knowledge in climatology, meteorology, hydrology, hydraulic engineering, statistics, planning and geography - thus a complex multi-faceted problem. This study focuses on the capabilities of multi-source remote sensing data to support decision-making before, during and after a flood event. With our focus on urbanized areas, sample methods and applications show multi-scale products from the hazard and vulnerability perspective of the risk framework. From the hazard side, we present capabilities with which to assess flood-prone areas before an expected disaster. Then we map the spatial impact during or after a flood and finally, we analyze damage grades after a flood disaster. From the vulnerability side, we monitor urbanization over time on an urban footprint level, classify urban structures on an individual building level, assess building stability and quantify probably affected people. The results show a large database for sustainable development and for developing mitigation strategies, ad-hoc coordination of relief measures and organizing rehabilitation.

Socio-Economic Appraisal of Flood Hazard among the Riparian Communities: Case Study of Brahmaputra Valley in Assam; India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Nikhil; Wasini Pandey, Bindhy

2017-04-01

Brahmaputra valley of Assam is one of the most hazard prone areas of the Indian subcontinent. Recurring floods have severely affected the riparian communities of the region since time immemorial. But, the frequency of the problem has been intensified after the great earthquakes of 1897 and 1950. These two extreme earthquakes have disturbed the geological setting of the basin and the channel morphology has been altered henceforth. The impact of floods on riparian communities in Brahmaputra valley has been abysmal. During the monsoon season almost 30 per cent of the valley has been inundated with floods and the riparian communities are mostly affected. Large chunk of people have been uprooted from their native lands due to recurring floods in the low lying areas of the region. Although it is impossible to quantify the human tragedy during the natural disasters, but one can easily understand the situation by the facts that about 1.8 million people and 200,000 hectares of farmland were affected in the 2016 floods of Assam. In the present study, an attempt has been made to assess the spatio-temporal changes of the morphology of Brahmaputra River and its impact on the livelihood of the riparian communities. For that, LANDSAT and SENTINEL imageries have been used to examine the shifting of bank lines of three decades. CARTOSAT DEM has been used to prepare the FLOOD HAZARD ZONATION map of the Brahmaputra valley to examine the flood vulnerable areas of the region. The present study also tries to explain the livelihood condition of the Internally Displaced Persons and their social cohesion. Keywords: Brahmaputra River, Flood, LANDSAT, CARTOSAT DEM, FLOOD HAZARD ZONATION, Riparian Communities

Flood on Big Fossil Creek at Haltom City near Fort Worth, Texas, in 1962

USGS Publications Warehouse

Montgomery, John H.; Ruggles, Frederick H.; Patterson, James Lee

1965-01-01

The approximate area inundated near Fort Worth, Texas, by Big Fossil Creek, during the flood of September 7, 1962, is shown on a topographic map to record the flood hazard in graphic form. Big Fossil Creek, which drains an area of 74.7 square miles, flows generally southeastward along the northeast edge of Fort Worth through Richland Hills and Haltom City, into West Fork Trinity River. The flood of September 7, 1962, the greatest in Richland Hills since at least 1900 was the result of a high rate of discharge from the area upstream from the confluence of Big Fossil Creek and Whites Branch. Greater floods are possible, but no attempt has been made to show their probable overflow limits. Future protective works may reduce the frequency of flooding in the area but will not necessarily eliminate flooding. Changes in culture such as new highways and bridges and changes in land use may influence the inundation pattern of future floods. Mapping of the West Fork Trinity River flood was beyond the scope of the Big Fossil Creek study, and is not shown.

Ecosystem processes at the watershed scale: mapping and modeling ecohydrological controls

Treesearch

Lawrence E. Band; T. Hwang; T.C. Hales; James Vose; Chelcy Ford

2012-01-01

Mountain watersheds are sources of a set of valuable ecosystem services as well as potential hazards. The former include high quality freshwater, carbon sequestration, nutrient retention, and biodiversity, whereas the latter include flash floods, landslides and forest fires. Each of these ecosystem services and hazards represents different elements of the integrated...

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Sonaguera, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Sonaguera that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Sonaguera and its tributary, Rio Juan Lazaro. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Sonaguera as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for an estimated 50-year-flood on Rio Sonaguera and Rio Juan Lazaro at Sonaguera were determined using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and a ground survey at the bridge. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Sonaguera or Rio Juan Lazaro; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Sonaguera above the confluence with Rio Juan Lazaro, 194 cubic meters per second; for Rio Juan Lazaro at its mouth, 168 cubic meters per second, and for Rio Sonaguera at the downstream end of the study area, 282 cubic meters per second; were estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation.

ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

2014-05-01

We present the impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on society and the economy, via relationships between ENSO and the hydrological cycle. We also discuss ways in which this knowledge can be used in disaster risk management and risk reduction. This contribution provides the most recent results of an ongoing 4-year collaborative research initiative to assess and map the impacts of large scale interannual climate variability on flood hazard and risk at the global scale. We have examined anomalies in flood risk between ENSO phases, whereby flood risk is expressed in terms of indicators such as: annual expected damage; annual expected affected population; annual expected affected Gross Domestic Product (GDP). We show that large anomalies in flood risk occur during El Niño or La Niña years in basins covering large parts of the Earth's surface. These anomalies reach statistical significance river basins covering almost two-thirds of the Earth's surface. Particularly strong anomalies exist in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially La Niña anomalies), and parts of South America. We relate these anomalies to possible causal relationships between ENSO and flood hazard, using both modelled and observed data on flood occurrence and extremity. The implications for flood risk management are many-fold. In those regions where disaster risk is strongly influenced by ENSO, the potential predictably of ENSO could be used to develop probabilistic flood risk projections with lead times up to several seasons. Such data could be used by the insurance industry in managing risk portfolios and by multinational companies for assessing the robustness of their supply chains to potential flood-related interruptions. Seasonal forecasts of ENSO influence of peak flows could also allow for improved flood early warning and regulation by dam operators, which could also reduce overall risks (and by extension insured losses). We carried out the research by simulating daily river discharges using a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB), forced with gridded climate reanalysis time-series (EU-WATCH). From this, we derived peak annual flood volumes for large-scale river basins globally. These were used to force a global inundation model (dynRout) to map inundation extent and depth for return periods between 2 and 1000 years, under El Niño conditions, neutral conditions, and La Niña conditions. Theses flood hazard maps were combined with global datasets on socioeconomic variables such as population and income to represent the socioeconomic exposure to flooding, and depth-damage curves to represent vulnerability.

Modeling of Natural Coastal Hazards in Puerto Rico in Support of Emergency Management and Coastal Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercado, A., Jr.

2015-12-01

The island of Puerto Rico is not only located in the so-called Caribbean hurricane alley, but is also located in a tsunami prone region. And both phenomena have affected the island. For the past few years we have undergone the task of upgrading the available coastal flood maps due to storm surges and tsunamis. This has been done taking advantage of new Lidar-derived, high resolution, topography and bathymetry and state-of-the-art models (MOST for tsunamis and ADCIRC/SWAN for storm surges). The tsunami inundation maps have been converted to evacuation maps. In tsunamis we are also working in preparing hazard maps due to tsunami currents inside ports, bays, and marinas. The storm surge maps include two scenarios of sea level rise: 0.5 and 1.0 m above Mean High Water. All maps have been adopted by the Puerto Rico State Emergency Management Agency, and are publicly available through the Internet. It is the purpose of this presentation to summarize how it has been done, the spin-off applications they have generated, and how we plan to improve coastal flooding predictions.

Global Rapid Flood Mapping System with Spaceborne SAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, S. H.; Owen, S. E.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Fattahi, H.; Liang, C.; Manipon, G.; Fielding, E. J.; Rosen, P. A.; Webb, F.; Simons, M.

2017-12-01

As part of the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project for Natural Hazards, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and California Institute of Technology, we have developed an automated system that produces derived products for flood extent map generation using spaceborne SAR data. The system takes user's input of area of interest polygons and time window for SAR data search (pre- and post-event). Then the system automatically searches and downloads SAR data, processes them to produce coregistered SAR image pairs, and generates log amplitude ratio images from each pair. Currently the system is automated to support SAR data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1A/B satellites. We have used the system to produce flood extent maps from Sentinel-1 SAR data for the May 2017 Sri Lanka floods, which killed more than 200 people and displaced about 600,000 people. Our flood extent maps were delivered to the Red Cross to support response efforts. Earlier we also responded to the historic August 2016 Louisiana floods in the United States, which claimed 13 people's lives and caused over $10 billion property damage. For this event, we made synchronized observations from space, air, and ground in close collaboration with USGS and NOAA. The USGS field crews acquired ground observation data, and NOAA acquired high-resolution airborne optical imagery within the time window of +/-2 hours of the SAR data acquisition by JAXA's ALOS-2 satellite. The USGS coordinates of flood water boundaries were used to calibrate our flood extent map derived from the ALOS-2 SAR data, and the map was delivered to FEMA for estimating the number of households affected. Based on the lessons learned from this response effort, we customized the ARIA system automation for rapid flood mapping and developed a mobile friendly web app that can easily be used in the field for data collection. Rapid automatic generation of SAR-based global flood maps calibrated with independent observations from ground, air, and space will provide reliable snapshot extent of many flooding events. SAR missions with easy data access, such as the Sentinel-1 and NASA's upcoming NISAR mission, combined with the ARIA system, will enable forming a library of flood extent maps, which can soon support flood modeling community, by providing observation-based constraints.

77 FR 31372 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-25

... West Baxter Avenue, Knoxville, TN 37917. Leon County, Texas, and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for.... Unincorporated Areas of Leon County.... Leon County Judge's Office, 130 East St. Marys, Centerville, TX 75833...

78 FR 5824 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-28

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent..., and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6396.htm...

A simple methodology to produce flood risk maps consistent with FEMA's base flood elevation maps: Implementation and validation over the entire contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Katz, B. G.; Li, S.; Lohmann, D.

2011-12-01

In the United States, government agencies as well as the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) use flood inundation maps associated with the 100-year return period (base flood elevation, BFE), produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), as the basis for flood insurance. A credibility check of the flood risk hydraulic models, often employed by insurance companies, is their ability to reasonably reproduce FEMA's BFE maps. We present results from the implementation of a flood modeling methodology aimed towards reproducing FEMA's BFE maps at a very fine spatial resolution using a computationally parsimonious, yet robust, hydraulic model. The hydraulic model used in this study has two components: one for simulating flooding of the river channel and adjacent floodplain, and the other for simulating flooding in the remainder of the catchment. The first component is based on a 1-D wave propagation model, while the second component is based on a 2-D diffusive wave model. The 1-D component captures the flooding from large-scale river transport (including upstream effects), while the 2-D component captures the flooding from local rainfall. The study domain consists of the contiguous United States, hydrologically subdivided into catchments averaging about 500 km2 in area, at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. Using historical daily precipitation data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the precipitation associated with the 100-year return period event was computed for each catchment and was input to the hydraulic model. Flood extent from the FEMA BFE maps is reasonably replicated by the 1-D component of the model (riverine flooding). FEMA's BFE maps only represent the riverine flooding component and are unavailable for many regions of the USA. However, this modeling methodology (1-D and 2-D components together) covers the entire contiguous USA. This study is part of a larger modeling effort from Risk Management Solutions° (RMS) to estimate flood risk associated with extreme precipitation events in the USA. Towards this greater objective, state-of-the-art models of flood hazard and stochastic precipitation are being implemented over the contiguous United States. Results from the successful implementation of the modeling methodology will be presented.

Hydrologic, Hydraulic, and Flood Analyses of the Blackberry Creek Watershed, Kendall County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.; Soong, David T.; Hamblen, Christopher S.

2007-01-01

Results of the hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kendall County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains cover approximately 3,699 and 3,762 acres of land, respectively. On the basis of land-cover data for 2003, most of the land in the flood plains was cropland and residential land. Although many acres of residential land were included in the flood plain, this land was mostly lawns, with 25 homes within the 100-year flood plain, and 41 homes within the 500-year flood plain in the 2003 aerial photograph. This report describes the data collection activities to refine the hydrologic and hydraulic models used in an earlier study of the Kane County part of the Blackberry Creek watershed and to extend the flood-frequency analysis through water year 2003. The results of the flood-hazard analysis are presented in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to simulate continuous water movement through various land-use patterns in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center- River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using observations during three storms at two crest-stage gages and the U.S. Geological Survey streamflowgaging station near Yorkville. Digital maps of the 100-year and 500-year flood plains and the 100-year floodway for each tributary and the main stem of Blackberry Creek were compiled.

A framework for global river flood risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Bouwman, A.; Ward, P. J.; Jongman, B.

2012-04-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks. Such assessments may be required by: (a) International Financing Institutes and Disaster Management Agencies to evaluate where, when, and which investments in flood risk mitigation are most required; (b) (re-)insurers, who need to determine their required coverage capital; and (c) large companies to account for risks of regional investments. In this contribution, we propose a framework for global river flood risk assessment. The framework combines coarse scale resolution hazard probability distributions, derived from global hydrological model runs (typical scale about 0.5 degree resolution) with high resolution estimates of exposure indicators. The high resolution is required because floods typically occur at a much smaller scale than the typical resolution of global hydrological models, and exposure indicators such as population, land use and economic value generally are strongly variable in space and time. The framework therefore estimates hazard at a high resolution ( 1 km2) by using a) global forcing data sets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate; b) a global hydrological model; c) a global flood routing model, and d) importantly, a flood spatial downscaling routine. This results in probability distributions of annual flood extremes as an indicator of flood hazard, at the appropriate resolution. A second component of the framework combines the hazard probability distribution with classical flood impact models (e.g. damage, affected GDP, affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk. The framework can be applied with a large number of datasets and models and sensitivities of such choices can be evaluated by the user. The framework is applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, combined with a global flood routing model. Downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution is performed with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on a number of target regions. We demonstrate the use of impact models in these regions based on global GDP, population, and land use maps. In this application, we show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input datasets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish distributed estimates of GDP and asset exposure to flooding.

Estimated post-flood effects through Sentinel and Landsat data to support civil protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cicala, Luca; Angelino, Cesario Vincenzo; Fiscante, Nicomino; Focareta, Mariano

2016-10-01

On October 15, 2015, a severe and devastating flood hit the region of Sannio, Southern Italy, and the city of Benevento. Benevento and the hilly area of Sannio, have already experienced similar disasters, but the natural disasters occurred in the past did not help to better cope with current ones. The flood in this almost unknown area of Campania reached its climax with the flooding of the Tammaro and Calore rivers. The extent of the damage to the region, businesses and people was very heavy. Benevento is the most affected area. Utilizing a combination of remote-sensing techniques, Geographic Information System (GIS) data, this project employed Sentinel-1/2 and Landsat 8 imagery taken before and during the floods to calculate total inundated area and delineate flood extent. This data was then used to assess pre-existing flood hazard maps of the area. The resulting maps and methodologies from this project were delivered to the local governments and organizations as they work to better understand this historic event and plan for recovery throughout the region. The main goal of this study is to map flood inundation using principally open, free and full data acquired by Sentinel and Landsat satellite platforms operated by European Space Agency (ESA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) respectively.

Flood hazard studies in Central Texas using orbital and suborbital remote sensing machinery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, V. R.; Holz, R. K.; Patton, P. C.

1975-01-01

Central Texas is subject to infrequent, unusually intense rainstorms which cause extremely rapid runoff from drainage basins developed on the deeply dissected limestone and marl bedrock of the Edwards Plateau. One approach to flood hazard evaluation in this area is a parametric model relating flood hydrograph characteristics to quantitative geomorphic properties of the drainage basins. The preliminary model uses multiple regression techniques to predict potential peak flood discharge from basin magnitude, drainage density, and ruggedness number. After mapping small catchment networks from remote sensing imagery, input data for the model are generated by network digitization and analysis by a computer assisted routine of watershed analysis. The study evaluated the network resolution capabilities of the following data formats: (1) large-scale (1:24,000) topographic maps, employing Strahler's "method of v's," (2) standard low altitude black and white aerial photography (1:13,000 and 1:20,000 scales), (3) NASA - generated aerial infrared photography at scales ranging from 1:48,000 to 1:123,000, and (4) Skylab Earth Resources Experiment Package S-190A and S-190B sensors (1:750,000 and 1:500,000 respectively).

Mapping resilience not risk: Turning the tide in New York City and Jamaica Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parris, A. S.; Sanderson, E. W.

2015-12-01

Resilience in urban coastal areas is affected by actions at multiple levels from individuals to community groups to city, state and federal governments. At any level, actions can be a response to immediate hazards (e.g. flooding of coastal homes) or long-term drivers of change (e.g. sea level rise). Jamaica Bay, a highly urbanized estuary within New York City, exemplifies the Nation's coastal zone challenges. Prior to Hurricane Sandy, city, state, and federal governments had made the estuary a major focal point for habitat restoration, improvements to public access and outdoor recreation, and sustainable development. Sandy caused the highest flood level in the recorded history of New York City, eventually claiming 44 lives and costing over $19 billion. Electrical system failure caused four of NYCs wastewater pollution control plants to shutdown, discharging untreated sewage into Jamaica Bay. The Sea Level Rise Tool for Sandy Recovery (the Tool), a flood mapping tool developed by several government agencies including FEMA, NYC, and the Executive Branch, integrated science from the National Flood Insurance Program and the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). While compound flooding hazards (stormwater plus coastal flooding) remain an important uncertainty, the Tool and subsequent NPCC mapping efforts provide sufficient evidence for science-based discourse around coastal flood risks in Jamaica Bay. But toward what outcome? Coastal flood risk reduction measures and other management actions are managed within existing regulatory frameworks. Disaster relief funds appropriated by Congress in the immediate aftermath of Sandy have provided critical resources to the Jamaica Bay region. However, the challenge now is to transition from the short-term response to long-term resilience planning, a challenge which requires new institutional capacity. This transition to resilience planning and implementation is not only critical in New York City, but in other coastal cities around the nation. The Science and Resilience Institute at Jamaica Bay is a rare partnership between the City of New York, the National Park Service and a consortium of nine research institutions, focused on collaborative problem solving. Central to the Institute's to success will be the question - can we start mapping resilience and not risk?

Challenges estimating the return period of extreme floods for reinsurance applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raven, Emma; Busby, Kathryn; Liu, Ye

2013-04-01

Mapping and modelling extreme natural events is fundamental within the insurance and reinsurance industry for assessing risk. For example, insurers might use a 1 in 100-year flood hazard map to set the annual premium of a property, whilst a reinsurer might assess the national scale loss associated with the 1 in 200-year return period for capital and regulatory requirements. Using examples from a range of international flood projects, we focus on exploring how to define what the n-year flood looks like for predictive uses in re/insurance applications, whilst considering challenges posed by short historical flow records and the spatial and temporal complexities of flood. First, we shall explore the use of extreme value theory (EVT) statistics for extrapolating data beyond the range of observations in a marginal analysis. In particular, we discuss how to estimate the return period of historical flood events and explore the impact that a range of statistical decisions have on these estimates. Decisions include: (1) selecting which distribution type to apply (e.g. generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) vs. generalised extreme value distribution (GEV)); (2) if former, the choice of the threshold above which the GPD is fitted to the data; and (3) the necessity to perform a cluster analysis to group flow peaks to temporally represent individual flood events. Second, we summarise a specialised multivariate extreme value model, which combines the marginal analysis above with dependence modelling to generate industry standard event sets containing thousands of simulated, equi-probable floods across a region/country. These events represent the typical range of anticipated flooding across a region and can be used to estimate the largest or most widespread events that are expected to occur. Finally, we summarise how a reinsurance catastrophe model combines the event set with detailed flood hazard maps to estimate the financial cost of floods; both the full event set and also individual extreme events. Since the predicted loss estimates, typically in the form of a curve plotting return period against modelled loss, are used in the pricing of reinsurance, we demonstrate the importance of the estimated return period and understanding the uncertainties associated with it.

An analysis of European riverine flood risk and adaptation measures under projected climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas; Holz, Friederike; Winsemius, Hessel; de Bruijn, Karind

2015-04-01

There is increasing need to assess costs and benefits of adaptation at scales beyond the river basin. In Europe, such estimates are required at the European scale in order to set priorities for action and financing, for instance in the context of the EU Adaptation Strategy. The goal of this work as part of the FP7 BASE project is to develop a flood impact model that can be applied at Pan-European scale and that is able to project changes in flood risk due to climate change and socio-economic developments, and costs of adaptation. For this research, we build upon the global flood hazard estimation method developed by Winsemius et al. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013), that produces flood inundation maps at different return period, for present day (EU WATCH) and future climate (IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5, for five climate models). These maps are used for the assessment of flood impacts. We developed and tested a model for assessing direct economic flood damages by using large scale land use maps. We characterise vulnerable land use functions, in particular residential, commercial, industrial, infrastructure and agriculture, using depth-damage relationships. Furthermore, we apply up to NUTS3 level information on Gross Domestic Product, which is used as a proxy for relative differences in maximum damage values between different areas. Next, we test two adaptation measures, by adjusting flood protection levels and adjusting damage functions. The results show the projected changes in flood risk in the future. For example, on NUTS2 level, flood risk increases in some regions up to 179% (between the baseline scenario 1960-1999 and time slice 2010-2049). On country level there are increases up to 60% for selected climate models. The conference presentation will show the most relevant improvements in damage modelling on the continental scale, and results of the analysis of adaptation measures. The results will be critically discussed under the aspect of major uncertainties in both future flood hazards as well as damage costs and adaptation effects and costs.

Validation of a 30 m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Johnson, Kris A.; Erickson, Tyler A.

2017-09-01

This paper reports the development of a ˜30 m resolution two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the conterminous U.S. using only publicly available data. The model employs a highly efficient numerical solution of the local inertial form of the shallow water equations which simulates fluvial flooding in catchments down to 50 km2 and pluvial flooding in all catchments. Importantly, we use the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Elevation Dataset to determine topography; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Levee Dataset to explicitly represent known flood defenses; and global regionalized flood frequency analysis to characterize return period flows and rainfalls. We validate these simulations against the complete catalogue of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) maps and detailed local hydraulic models developed by the USGS. Where the FEMA SFHAs are based on high-quality local models, the continental-scale model attains a hit rate of 86%. This correspondence improves in temperate areas and for basins above 400 km2. Against the higher quality USGS data, the average hit rate reaches 92% for the 1 in 100 year flood, and 90% for all flood return periods. Given typical hydraulic modeling uncertainties in the FEMA maps and USGS model outputs (e.g., errors in estimating return period flows), it is probable that the continental-scale model can replicate both to within error. The results show that continental-scale models may now offer sufficient rigor to inform some decision-making needs with dramatically lower cost and greater coverage than approaches based on a patchwork of local studies.

Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

2016-11-01

Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

A Study on the Assessment of Multi-Factors Affecting Urban Floods Using Satellite Image: A Case Study in Nakdong Basin, S. Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwak, Youngjoo; Kondoh, Akihiko

2010-05-01

Floods are also related to the changes in social economic conditions and land use. Recently, floods increased due to rapid urbanization and human activity in the lowland. Therefore, integrated management of total basin system is necessary to get the secure society. Typhoon ‘Rusa’ swept through eastern and southern parts of South Korea in the 2002. This pity experience gave us valuable knowledge that could be used to mitigate the future flood hazards. The purpose of this study is to construct the digital maps of the multi-factors related to urban flood concerning geomorphologic characteristics, land cover, and surface wetness. Parameters particularly consider geomorphologic functional unit, geomorphologic parameters derived from DEM (digital elevation model), and land use. The research area is Nakdong River Basin in S. Korea. As a result of preliminary analysis for Pusan area, the vulnerability map and the flood-prone areas can be extracted by applying spatial analysis on GIS (geographic information system).

A framework for global river flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

2013-05-01

There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

keep your models up-to-date: connecting community mapping data to complex urban flood modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, Hessel; Eilander, Dirk; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Iliffe, Mark; Mawanda, Shaban; Luo, Tianyi; Kimacha, Nyambiri; Chen, Jorik

2017-04-01

The world is urbanizing rapidly. According to the United Nation's World Urbanization Prospect, 50% of the global population already lives in urban areas today. This number is expected to grow to 66% by 2050. The rapid changes in these urban environments go hand in hand with rapid changes in natural hazard risks, in particular in informal unplanned neighbourhoods. In Dar Es Salaam - Tanzania, flood risk dominates and given the rapid changes in the city, continuous updates of detailed street level hazard and risk mapping are needed to adequately support decision making for urban planning, infrastructure design and disaster response. Over the past years, the Ramani Huria and Zuia Mafuriko projects have mapped the most flood prone neighbourhoods, including roads, buildings, drainage and land use and contributed data to the open-source OpenStreetMap database. In this contribution, we will demonstrate how we mobilize these contributed data to establish dynamic flood models for Dar Es Salaam and keep these up-to-date by making a direct link between the data, and model schematization. The tools automatically establish a sound 1D drainage network as well as a high resolution terrain dataset, by fusing the OpenStreetMap data with existing lower resolution terrain data such as the globally available satellite based SRTM 30. It then translates these fully automatically into the inputs required for the D-HYDRO modeling suite. Our tools are built such that community and stakeholder knowledge can be included in the model details through workshops with the tools so that missing essential information about the city's details can be augmented on-the-fly. This process creates a continuous dialogue between members of the community that collect data, and stakeholders requiring data for flood models. Moreover, used taxonomy and data filtering can be configured to conditions in other cities, making the tools generic and scalable. The tools are made available open-source.

78 FR 7441 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-01

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Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

Modeling of natural risks in GIS, decision support in the Civil Protection and Emergency Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, M.; Martins, L.; Moreira, S.; Costa, A.; Matos, F.; Teixeira, M.; Bateira, C.

2012-04-01

The assessment of natural hazards in Civil Protection is essential in the prevention and mitigation of emergency situations. This paper presents the results of the development of mapping susceptibility to landslides, floods, forest fires and soil erosion, using GIS (Geographic Information System) tools in two municipalities - Santo Tirso and Trofa - in the district of Oporto, in the northwest of Portugal. The mapping of natural hazards fits in the legislative plan of the Municipal Civil Protection (Law No. 65/2007 of 12 November) and it provides the key elements to planning and preparing an appropriate response in case some of the processes / phenomena occur, thus optimizing the procedures for protection and relief provided by the Municipal Civil Protection Service. Susceptibility mapping to landslides, floods, forest fires and soil erosion was performed with GIS tools resources. The methodology used to compile the mapping of landslides, forest fires and soil erosion was based on the modeling of different conditioning factors and validated with field work and event log. The mapping of susceptibility to floods and flooding was developed through mathematical parameters (statistical, hydrologic and hydraulic), supported by field work and the recognition of individual characteristics of each sector analysis and subsequently analyzed in a GIS environment The mapping proposal was made in 1:5000 scale which allows not only the identification of large sets affected by the spatial dynamics of the processes / phenomena, but also a more detailed analysis, especially when combined with geographic information systems (GIS) thus allowing to study more specific situations that require a quick response. The maps developed in this study are fundamental to the understanding, prediction and prevention of susceptibility and risks present in the municipalities, being a valuable tool in the process of Emergency Planning, since it identifies priority areas of intervention for farther detail analysis, promote and safeguard mechanisms to prevent injury and it anticipates the possibility of potential interventions that can minimize the risk.

Comparison between flood prone areas' geomorphic features in the Abruzzo region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlando, D.; Giglioni, M.; Magnaldi, S.

2017-07-01

Flood risk maps are one of the main non-structural measures for risk mitigation, but, as the risk knowledge degree is directly proportional to the community interest and financial capability, many sites are devoid of flood inundation areas studies. Recently many authors have investigated the capability of flood prone areas individuation with geomorphological DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL(DEM) based approaches. These approaches highlight the role of geomorphic features derived from DEM, in this case slope, curvature, elevation, and topographic wetness index, to preliminary inundated areas' identification, without using hydraulic simulations. The present studies aim to analyze the geomorphic features of different hazard levels that lie under the identified inundated areas that have been carried out by the Abruzzo Region Basin Authority. The Aterno-Pescara and Foro river basins have been investigated. The results show that the characteristics of the flooded areas can be clearly distinguished from those of the entire basin,however, the difficultly of geomorphic features in individuatingthe areas of different hazard classifications is obvious.

Flood hydrology and dam-breach hydraulic analyses of five reservoirs in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Michael R.; Hoogestraat, Galen K.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service has identified hazard concerns for areas downstream from five Colorado dams on Forest Service land. In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Forest Service, initiated a flood hydrology analysis to estimate the areal extent of potential downstream flood inundation and hazard to downstream life, property, and infrastructure if dam breach occurs. Readily available information was used for dam-breach assessments of five small Colorado reservoirs (Balman Reservoir, Crystal Lake, Manitou Park Lake, McGinnis Lake, and Million Reservoir) that are impounded by an earthen dam, and no new data were collected for hydraulic modeling. For each reservoir, two dam-breach scenarios were modeled: (1) the dam is overtopped but does not fail (break), and (2) the dam is overtopped and dam-break occurs. The dam-breach scenarios were modeled in response to the 100-year recurrence, 500-year recurrence, and the probable maximum precipitation, 24-hour duration rainstorms to predict downstream flooding. For each dam-breach and storm scenario, a flood inundation map was constructed to estimate the extent of flooding in areas of concern downstream from each dam. Simulation results of the dam-break scenarios were used to determine the hazard classification of the dam structure (high, significant, or low), which is primarily based on the potential for loss of life and property damage resulting from the predicted downstream flooding.

Calibration of Watershed Lag Time Equation for Philippine Hydrology using RADARSAT Digital Elevation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cipriano, F. R.; Lagmay, A. M. A.; Horritt, M.; Mendoza, J.; Sabio, G.; Punay, K. N.; Taniza, H. J.; Uichanco, C.

2015-12-01

Widespread flooding is a major problem in the Philippines. The country experiences heavy amount of rainfall throughout the year and several areas are prone to flood hazards because of its unique topography. Human casualties and destruction of infrastructure are just some of the damages caused by flooding and the Philippine government has undertaken various efforts to mitigate these hazards. One of the solutions was to create flood hazard maps of different floodplains and use them to predict the possible catastrophic results of different rain scenarios. To produce these maps with accurate output, different input parameters were needed and one of those is calculating hydrological components from topographical data. This paper presents how a calibrated lag time (TL) equation was obtained using measurable catchment parameters. Lag time is an essential input in flood mapping and is defined as the duration between the peak rainfall and peak discharge of the watershed. The lag time equation involves three measurable parameters, namely, watershed length (L), maximum potential retention (S) derived from the curve number, and watershed slope (Y), all of which were available from RADARSAT Digital Elevation Models (DEM). This approach was based on a similar method developed by CH2M Hill and Horritt for Taiwan, which has a similar set of meteorological and hydrological parameters with the Philippines. Rainfall data from fourteen water level sensors covering 67 storms from all the regions in the country were used to estimate the actual lag time. These sensors were chosen by using a screening process that considers the distance of the sensors from the sea, the availability of recorded data, and the catchment size. The actual lag time values were plotted against the values obtained from the Natural Resource Conservation Management handbook lag time equation. Regression analysis was used to obtain the final calibrated equation that would be used to calculate the lag time specifically for rivers in the Philippine setting. The calculated lag time values could then be used as a parameter for modeling different flood scenarios in the country.

Arguing for a multi-hazard mapping program in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batterson, Martin; Neil, Stapleton

2010-05-01

This poster describes efforts to implement a Provincial multi-hazard mapping program, and will explore the challenges associated with this process. Newfoundland and Labrador is on the eastern edge of North America, has a large land area (405,212 km2) and a small population (510,000; 2009 estimate). The province currently has no legislative framework to control development in hazardous areas, but recent landslides in the communities of Daniel's Harbour and Trout River, both of which forced the relocation of residents, emphasize the need for action. There are two factors which confirm the need for a natural hazard mapping program: the documented history of natural disasters, and the future potential impacts of climate change. Despite being relatively far removed from the impacts of earthquake and volcanic activity, Newfoundland and Labrador has a long history of natural disasters. Rockfall, landslide, avalanche and flood events have killed at least 176 people over the past 225 years, many in their own homes. Some of the fatalities resulted from the adjacency of homes to places of employment, and of communities and roads to steep slopes. Others were likely the result of chance, and were thus unavoidable. Still others were the result of poor planning, albeit unwitting. Increasingly however, aesthetics have replaced pragmatism as a selection criterion for housing developments, with residential construction being contemplated for many coastal areas. The issue is exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, which while not a universal bane for the Province, will likely result in rising sea level and enhanced coastal erosion. Much of the Province's coastline is receding at up to 30 cm (and locally higher) per year. Sea level is anticipated to rise by 70cm to over 100 cm by 2099, based on IPCC predictions, plus the effects of enhanced ice sheet melting, plus (or minus) continued local isostatic adjustment. The history of geological disasters, coupled with pressures on development and the threat of rising sea levels, has prompted the initiation of a Provincial multi-hazard mapping program. Initial focus is on the north-east Avalon Peninsula, where the majority of the Province's residents are located and where most development is occurring. A regional land-use plan is being initiated for this area. While there are few, if any, standard protocols in literature for determining variables/data to be included in a hazard assessment, three important factors require consideration: the characteristics and detail of the study area, the availability of digital datasets, and the scale of data. For the north-east Avalon Peninsula hazard mapping will combine slope models generated from DEMs, bedrock/surficial geology mapping at 1:50,000 scale, Provincial flood risk mapping and municipal digital topographic data at 1:2500 scale, and historical research and field work, to produce a ‘traffic-light' designation of potentially hazardous areas. Data will be presented in an ArcGIS environment. Sea-level rise scenarios will also be incorporated into the mapping. Following the experience of flood risk mapping in the Province, which identified hazardous areas for development which nevertheless continued to experience urban expansion, subsequently ensuring the utilization of these maps in future land-use planning will likely require entrenchment in legislation.

Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton, Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rendon, Samuel H.; Ashworth, Chad E.; Smith, S. Jerrod

2012-01-01

Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and reliable water supplies, but they also entail risk: dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or misoperation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning the emergency response if a dam breach occurs. Accurate topographic data are vital for developing flood-inundation maps. This report presents results of a cooperative study by the city of Lawton, Oklahoma, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to model dam-breach scenarios at Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka near Lawton and to map the potential flood-inundation areas of such dam breaches. To assist the city of Lawton with completion of the emergency action plans for Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka Dams, the USGS collected light detection and ranging (lidar) data that were used to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model and a 1-foot contour elevation map for the flood plains downstream from Lakes Ellsworth and Lawtonka. This digital elevation model and field measurements, streamflow-gaging station data (USGS streamflow-gaging station 07311000, East Cache Creek near Walters, Okla.), and hydraulic values were used as inputs for the dynamic (unsteady-flow) model, Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). The modeled flood elevations were exported to a geographic information system to produce flood-inundation maps. Water-surface profiles were developed for a 75-percent probable maximum flood scenario and a sunny-day dam-breach scenario, as well as for maximum flood-inundation elevations and flood-wave arrival times for selected bridge crossings. Some areas of concern near the city of Lawton, if a dam breach occurs at Lakes Ellsworth or Lawtonka, include water treatment plants, wastewater treatment plants, recreational areas, and community-services offices.

Rapid Flood Map Generation from Spaceborne SAR Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, S. H.; Liang, C.; Manipon, G.; Jung, J.; Gurrola, E. M.; Owen, S. E.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Webb, F.; Sacco, G. F.; Rosen, P. A.; Simons, M.

2016-12-01

The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) team has responded to the January 2016 US Midwest Floods along the Mississippi River. Daily teleconferences with FEMA, NOAA, NGA, and USGS, provided information on precipitation and flood crest migration, based on which we coordinated with the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) through NASA headquarters for JAXA's ALOS-2 timely tasking over two paths. We produced flood extent maps using ALOS-2 SM3 mode Level 1.5 data that were provided through the International Charter and stored at the US Geological Survey's Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) archive. On January 6, the first four frames (70 km x 240 km) were acquired, which included the City of Memphis. We registered post-event SAR images to pre-event images, applied radiometric calibration, took a logarithm of the ratio of the two images. Two thresholds were applied to represent flooded areas that became open water (colored in blue) and flooded areas with tall vegetation (colored in red). The second path was acquired on January 11 further down along the Mississippi River. Seven frames (70 km x 420 km) were acquired and flood maps were created in the similar fashion. The maps were delivered to the FEMA as well as posted on ARIA's public website. The FEMA stated that SAR provides inspection priority for optical imagery and ground response. The ALOS-2 data and the products have been a very important source of information during this response as the flood crest has moved down stream. The SAR data continue to be an important resource during times when optical observations are often not useful. In close collaboration with FEMA and USGS, we also work on other flood events including June 2016 China Floods using European Space Agency's (ESA's) Sentienl-1 data, to produce flood extent maps and identify algorithmic needs and ARIA system's requirements to automate and rapidly produce and deliver flood maps for future events. With the addition of Sentinel-1B satellite, the composite expected wait time until a SAR satellite to fly over a flooded area became smaller than 12 hours. With more SAR missions, such as SAOCOM, RADARSAT Constellation, Sentinel-1C/D, ALOS-3, and NISAR, SAR data are becoming more useful for rapid mapping of devastating floods, which are becoming more frequent and more severe around the world.

Detection of Flood Inundation Information of the Kinu River Flooding in 2015 by Social Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Y.; Sayama, T.; Takara, K. T.

2016-12-01

On September 10th, 2015, due to Kanto Tohoku heavy rainfall in Japan, an overtopping occurred from the Kinu River around 6:00. At the same day, levee breach occurred at the downstream area near Joso city in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan. This flood disaster caused two people dead, several people injured, and enormous damages on houses and infrastructures in the city. In order to mitigate such flood disasters with large inundations, it is important to identify flood-affected areas on real-time basis. The real-time flood hazard map, which is our ultimate goal of the study, provides information on location of inundated areas during a flood. However, the technology has not been achieved yet mainly due to the difficulty in identifying the flood extent on real time. With the advantage of efficiency and wide coverage, social media, such as Twitter, appears as a good data source for collecting real-time flood information. However, there are some concerns on social media information, including the trustworthiness, and the amount of useful information in the case tweets from flood affected areas. This study collected tweet regarding the Kinu River flooding and investigated how many people in affected area posted tweets on the flooding and how the detected information is useful for the eventual goal on the real-time flood hazard mapping. The tweets were collected by three ways: advanced search on twitter web page; DISAster-information ANAlyzer system; and Twitter Application Programming Interfaces. As a result, 109 disaster relevant tweets were collected. Out of the 109 tweets, 32% of the total tweets are posted at real-time, 43% of total tweets are posted with photos and 46 tweets are related to the inundation information. 46% of the inundation related tweets were able to identify locations. In order to investigate the reliability of tweet post, the location identified tweets were marked on map to compare with the real inundation extent that measured by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI) by helicopter on September 10, 2015. The result shows a good agreement between the actual inundation information and tweet post. Moreover, the tweet posts show an appropriate change of inundation extent. In addition, tweet posts show some additional inundated areas not reported by GSI, but confirmed the inundation after the disaster.

Flood mapping in ungauged basins using fully continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimaldi, Salvatore; Petroselli, Andrea; Arcangeletti, Ettore; Nardi, Fernando

2013-04-01

SummaryIn this work, a fully-continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modeling framework for flood mapping is introduced and tested. It is characterized by a simulation of a long rainfall time series at sub-daily resolution that feeds a continuous rainfall-runoff model producing a discharge time series that is directly given as an input to a bi-dimensional hydraulic model. The main advantage of the proposed approach is to avoid the use of the design hyetograph and the design hydrograph that constitute the main source of subjective analysis and uncertainty for standard methods. The proposed procedure is optimized for small and ungauged watersheds where empirical models are commonly applied. Results of a simple real case study confirm that this experimental fully-continuous framework may pave the way for the implementation of a less subjective and potentially automated procedure for flood hazard mapping.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Tocoa, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Tocoa that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Tocoa. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Tocoa as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for an estimated 50-year-flood on Rio Tocoa at Tocoa were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and a ground survey at one bridge. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Tocoa; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Tocoa, 552 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The drainage area and mean annual precipitation estimated for Rio Tocoa at Tocoa are 204 square kilometers and 1,987 millimeters, respectively. It was assumed that a portion of the 50-year flood, 200 cubic meters per second, would escape the main channel and flow down a side channel before re-entering the main channel again near the lower end of the study area.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Tegucigalpa, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Tegucigalpa that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Choluteca, Rio Grande, Rio Guacerique, and Rio Chiquito. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Tegucigalpa as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for an estimated 50-year-flood on Rio Choluteca, Rio Grande, Rio Guacerique, and Rio Chiquito at Tegucigalpa were determined using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and ground surveys at bridges. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharges were estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge is 922 cubic meters per second at Rio Choluteca at downstream end of the study area boundary, 663 cubic meters per second at the mouth of the Rio Grande, 475 cubic meters per second at the mouth of the Rio Guacerique, and 254 cubic meters per second at the mouth of the Rio Chiquito.

Improving the extraction of crisis information in the context of flood, fire, and landslide rapid mapping using SAR and optical remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinis, Sandro; Clandillon, Stephen; Twele, André; Huber, Claire; Plank, Simon; Maxant, Jérôme; Cao, Wenxi; Caspard, Mathilde; May, Stéphane

2016-04-01

Optical and radar satellite remote sensing have proven to provide essential crisis information in case of natural disasters, humanitarian relief activities and civil security issues in a growing number of cases through mechanisms such as the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) of the European Commission or the International Charter 'Space and Major Disasters'. The aforementioned programs and initiatives make use of satellite-based rapid mapping services aimed at delivering reliable and accurate crisis information after natural hazards. Although these services are increasingly operational, they need to be continuously updated and improved through research and development (R&D) activities. The principal objective of ASAPTERRA (Advancing SAR and Optical Methods for Rapid Mapping), the ESA-funded R&D project being described here, is to improve, automate and, hence, speed-up geo-information extraction procedures in the context of natural hazards response. This is performed through the development, implementation, testing and validation of novel image processing methods using optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The methods are mainly developed based on data of the German radar satellites TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X, the French satellite missions Pléiades-1A/1B as well as the ESA missions Sentinel-1/2 with the aim to better characterize the potential and limitations of these sensors and their synergy. The resulting algorithms and techniques are evaluated in real case applications during rapid mapping activities. The project is focussed on three types of natural hazards: floods, landslides and fires. Within this presentation an overview of the main methodological developments in each topic is given and demonstrated in selected test areas. The following developments are presented in the context of flood mapping: a fully automated Sentinel-1 based processing chain for detecting open flood surfaces, a method for the improved detection of flooded vegetation in Sentinel-1data using Entropy/Alpha decomposition, unsupervised Wishart Classification, and object-based post-classification as well as semi-automatic approaches for extracting inundated areas and flood traces in rural and urban areas from VHR and HR optical imagery using machine learning techniques. Methodological developments related to fires are the implementation of fast and robust methods for mapping burnt scars using change detection procedures using SAR (Sentinel-1, TerraSAR-X) and HR optical (e.g. SPOT, Sentinel-2) data as well as the extraction of 3D surface and volume change information from Pléiades stereo-pairs. In the context of landslides, fast and transferable change detection procedures based on SAR (TerraSAR-X) and optical (SPOT) data as well methods for extracting the extent of landslides only based on polarimetric VHR SAR (TerraSAR-X) data are presented.

Flood Vulnerability Analysis of the part of Karad Region, Satara District, Maharashtra using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warghat, Sumedh R.; Das, Sandipan; Doad, Atul; Mali, Sagar; Moon, Vishal S.

2012-07-01

Karad City is situated on the bank of confluence of river Krishna & Koyana, which is severely flood prone area. The floodwaters enter the city through the roads and disrupt the infrastructure in the whole city. Furthermore, due to negligence of the authorities and unplanned growth of the city, the people living in the city have harnessed the natural flow of water by constructing unnecessary embankments in the river Koyna. Due to this reason now river koyna is flowing in the form of a narrow channel, which very easily over-flows during very minor flooding.Flood Vulnerabilty Analysis has been done for the karad region of satara district, maharashtra using remote sensing and geographic information system technique. The aim of this study is to identify flood vulnerability zone by using GIS and RS technique and an attempt has been to demonstrat the application of remote sensing and GIS in order to map flood vulnerabilty area by utilizing ArcMap, and Erdas software. Flood vulnerabilty analysis of part the Karad Regian of Satara District, Maharashtra has been carried out with the objectives - Identify the Flood Prone area in the Koyana and Krishna river basin, Calculate surface runoff and Delineate flood sensitive areas. Delineate classified hazard Map, Evaluate the Flood affected area, Prepare the Flood Vulnerability Map by utilizing Remote Sensing and GIS technique. (C.J. Kumanan;S.M. Ramasamy)The study is based on GIS and spatial technique is used for analysis and understanding of flood problem in Karad Tahsil. The flood affected areas of the different magnitude has been identified and mapped using Arc GIS software. The analysis is useful for local planning authority for identification of risk areas and taking proper decision in right moment. In the analysis causative factors for flooding in watershed are taken into account as annual rainfall, size of watershed, basin slope, drainage density of natural channels and land use. (Dinand Alkema; Farah Aziz.)This study of flood vulnerable area determination in a part of Karad Tahsil is employed to illustrate the different approaches.

Integration of rainfall/runoff and geomorphological analyses flood hazard in small catchments: case studies from the southern Apennines (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palumbo, Manuela; Ascione, Alessandra; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio

2017-04-01

We present the first results of an analysis of flood hazard in ungauged mountain catchments that are associated with intensely urbanized alluvial fans. Assessment of hydrological hazard has been based on the integration of rainfall/runoff modelling of drainage basins with geomorphological analysis and mapping. Some small and steep, ungauged mountain catchments located in various areas of the southern Apennines, in southern Italy, have been chosen as test sites. In the last centuries, the selected basins have been subject to heavy and intense precipitation events, which have caused flash floods with serious damages in the correlated alluvial fan areas. Available spatial information (regional technical maps, DEMs, land use maps, geological/lithological maps, orthophotos) and an automated GIS-based procedure (ArcGis tools and ArcHydro tools) have been used to extract morphological, hydrological and hydraulic parameters. Such parameters have been used to run the HEC (Hydrologic Engineering Center of the US Army Corps of Engineers) software (GeoHMS, GeoRAS, HMS and RAS) based on rainfall-runoff models, which have allowed the hydrological and hydraulic simulations. As the floods occurred in the studied catchments have been debris flows dominated, the solid load simulation has been also performed. In order to validate the simulations, we have compared results of the modelling with the effects produced by past floods. Such effects have been quantified through estimations of both the sediment volumes within each catchment that have the potential to be mobilised (pre-event) during a sediment transfer event, and the volume of sediments delivered by the debris flows at basins' outlets (post-event). The post-event sediment volume has been quantified through post-event surveys and Lidar data. Evaluation of the pre-event sediment volumes in single catchments has been based on mapping of sediment storages that may constitute source zones of bed load transport and debris flows. For such an approach has been used a methodology that consists of the application of a process-based geomorphological mapping, based on data derived from GIS analysis using high-resolution DEMs, field measurements and aerial photograph interpretations. Our integrated approach, which allows quantification of the flow rate and a semi-quantitative assessment of sediment that can be mobilized during hydro-meteorological events, is applied for the first time to torrential catchmenmts of the southern Apennines and may significantly contribute to previsional studies aimed at risk mitigation in the study region.

A new automatic SAR-based flood mapping application hosted on the European Space Agency's grid processing on demand fast access to imagery environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hostache, Renaud; Chini, Marco; Matgen, Patrick; Giustarini, Laura

2013-04-01

There is a clear need for developing innovative processing chains based on earth observation (EO) data to generate products supporting emergency response and flood management at a global scale. Here an automatic flood mapping application is introduced. The latter is currently hosted on the Grid Processing on Demand (G-POD) Fast Access to Imagery (Faire) environment of the European Space Agency. The main objective of the online application is to deliver flooded areas using both recent and historical acquisitions of SAR data in an operational framework. It is worth mentioning that the method can be applied to both medium and high resolution SAR images. The flood mapping application consists of two main blocks: 1) A set of query tools for selecting the "crisis image" and the optimal corresponding pre-flood "reference image" from the G-POD archive. 2) An algorithm for extracting flooded areas using the previously selected "crisis image" and "reference image". The proposed method is a hybrid methodology, which combines histogram thresholding, region growing and change detection as an approach enabling the automatic, objective and reliable flood extent extraction from SAR images. The method is based on the calibration of a statistical distribution of "open water" backscatter values inferred from SAR images of floods. Change detection with respect to a pre-flood reference image helps reducing over-detection of inundated areas. The algorithms are computationally efficient and operate with minimum data requirements, considering as input data a flood image and a reference image. Stakeholders in flood management and service providers are able to log onto the flood mapping application to get support for the retrieval, from the rolling archive, of the most appropriate pre-flood reference image. Potential users will also be able to apply the implemented flood delineation algorithm. Case studies of several recent high magnitude flooding events (e.g. July 2007 Severn River flood, UK and March 2010 Red River flood, US) observed by high-resolution SAR sensors as well as airborne photography highlight advantages and limitations of the online application. A mid-term target is the exploitation of ESA SENTINEL 1 SAR data streams. In the long term it is foreseen to develop a potential extension of the application for systematically extracting flooded areas from all SAR images acquired on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. On-going research activities investigate the usefulness of the method for mapping flood hazard at global scale using databases of historic SAR remote sensing-derived flood inundation maps.

Efficiency of preventive actions for landslides and flooding - evaluation of Scandinavian practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergman, R.; Andersson-sköld, Y. B.; Nyberg, L.; Johansson, M.; Persson, E.

2011-12-01

Author: Ramona Bergman, Yvonne Andersson-Sköld, Lars Nyberg, Magnus Johansson, Erik Persson Preventive actions can be, and are frequently, taken to reduce accidents and their consequences in different ways. The MSB funded research programme "Effects of Society's Security actions" (ESS, 2009-2013) aims to study the relationship between such actions and their effects. The program is divided into three subgroups: Frequent accidents Natural hazards (such as flooding, erosion and landslide) Chemical and landfill accidents The results presented here covers natural hazards with focus on land slides and flooding. The results are based on Swedish/Scandinavian contexts. Natural events such as erosion, flooding and land slides are common, but the number of accidents (events causing severe negative impact) is rare. Therefore, in such analysis there is limited data and other information available which can be used for example in statistical analysis of actions and their effects. Instead, the analysis must be based on other information. Therefore, the analysis may have to include aspects that only can be assessed by scenario and "what-if" analyses. In this project the main method has been interviews with officials in Swedish municipalities and national agencies in Sweden and Norway. The two levels are chosen since policies are taken on national (or international) level, while the key actions and actors are on the municipal level. The interviews cover experiences and potential scenarios. In all municipalities, one politician and officials working with planning and rescue service have been interviewed. The study covers hazard and risk mapping, follow up of such maps, physical planning and lessons learned from previous events and activities. The final outcome of the research will be a review of what is found to be well functioning, identification of weak points and recommendations for the management of landslides, erosion and flooding. The present results indicate that hazard/risk maps are of great importance, but the knowledge about the maps and how to use them varies depending on who you ask and between municipalities. Most officials in municipalities are aware of climate change (CC) but, due to high uncertainties and since climate induced events such as natural hazards are rare, the issues are often not prioritized. Further, the results indicate that the documentation, communication and the responsibilities among different units is not always clear, having impacts on for example the knowledge transfer to new personnel. Also databases can be useful tools. The project has found that the use of such tools varies between Norway and Sweden. The aim is to identify the reasons for such deviation. The mostly mentioned suggestions of improvement in the prevention process are increased knowledge, user friendly guidance, clear organisational structure and responsibilities and nationally provided ear marked funding for preventive measures.

Natural Resource Assessments in Afghanistan Through High Resolution Digital Elevation Modeling and Multi-spectral Image Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chirico, Peter G.

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides USGS/USAID natural resource assessments in Afghanistan through the mapping of coal, oil and natural gas, minerals, hydrologic resources and earthquake and flood hazards.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Comayagua, Hondura

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Comayagua that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Humuya and Rio Majada. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Comayagua as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Humuya and Rio Majada at Comayagua were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Humuya at Comayagua, 1,400 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The reasonableness of the regression discharge was evaluated by comparing it with drainage-area-adjusted 50-year-flood discharges estimated for three long-term Rio Humuya stream-gaging stations. The drainage-area-adjusted 50-year-flood discharges estimated from the gage records ranged from 946 to 1,365 cubic meters per second. Because the regression equation discharge agrees closely with the high end of the range of discharges estimated from the gaging-station records, it was used for the hydraulic modeling to ensure that the resulting 50-year-flood water-surface elevations would not be underestimated. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Majada at Comayagua (230 cubic meters per second) was estimated using the regression equation because there are no long-term gaging-stations on this river from which to estimate the discharge.

The Use of LIDAR and Volunteered Geographic Information to Map Flood Extents and Inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDougall, K.; Temple-Watts, P.

2012-07-01

Floods are one of the most destructive natural disasters that threaten communities and properties. In recent decades, flooding has claimed more lives, destroyed more houses and ruined more agricultural land than any other natural hazard. The accurate prediction of the areas of inundation from flooding is critical to saving lives and property, but relies heavily on accurate digital elevation and hydrologic models. The 2011 Brisbane floods provided a unique opportunity to capture high resolution digital aerial imagery as the floods neared their peak, allowing the capture of areas of inundation over the various city suburbs. This high quality imagery, together with accurate LiDAR data over the area and publically available volunteered geographic imagery through repositories such as Flickr, enabled the reconstruction of flood extents and the assessment of both area and depth of inundation for the assessment of damage. In this study, approximately 20 images of flood damaged properties were utilised to identify the peak of the flood. Accurate position and height values were determined through the use of RTK GPS and conventional survey methods. This information was then utilised in conjunction with river gauge information to generate a digital flood surface. The LiDAR generated DEM was then intersected with the flood surface to reconstruct the area of inundation. The model determined areas of inundation were then compared to the mapped flood extent from the high resolution digital imagery to assess the accuracy of the process. The paper concludes that accurate flood extent prediction or mapping is possible through this method, although its accuracy is dependent on the number and location of sampled points. The utilisation of LiDAR generated DEMs and DSMs can also provide an excellent mechanism to estimate depths of inundation and hence flood damage

Management of Combined Natural Risks - A New Approach: Keynote Address

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanisch, Jörg

A new attempt is made to illustrate and to quantify the relationships of individual natural hazards, their combinations and the human vulnerability to natural hazards. During many catastrophic events, combinations of different natural events aggravate their occurrence substantially. Earthquakes are frequently associated with heavy landsliding (El Salvador 2001) and heavy rainstorms are able to trigger fast running debris flows and not only floods (like during the Mitch disaster in Central America in 1998). That signifies that natural hazard maps should show the combinations of different hazards and their genetic relationships. To put into effect this, first, the individual hazards have to be assessed and presented in hazard zones (0 to 3). Then these hazards zones will be overlain using GIS techniques. In this way, e.g., an earthquake-prone area which coincides with an area susceptible to landslides (ranking 0 to 3 as well) can show hazard concentrations of up to a value of 6, simply adding the individual hazard zones. To get the result of the corresponding risk zones, the vulnerability maps of human settlements and infra-structure have to be overlain on the maps of these combinations of natural hazards.

Using Geomorphologic Data and Numerical Hydrodynamic Models To Delineate Flood Hazards On Alluvial Fans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, D.; Shaller, P.; Cattarossi, A.

The 100-year flood hazard was reappraised for a parcel of land in the central Coachella Valley of southern California, USA, by use of geologic mapping, geomorphic analy- sis, analysis of historical aerial photos, and computer-aided hydrologic modeling. An- nual precipitation is only about 6 inches, but the area is subject to rare but extreme rainfall events resulting from thunderstorms and hurricanes. The principal flooding hazard at the parcel is from nearby Thousand Palms Wash, which transmits drainage directly from the Little San Bernardino Mountains into the central Coachella Valley. A perceived secondary flood hazard originates from several drainage basins in the Little San Bernardino Mountains northwest of the Indio Hills. This source was the subject of this investigation. The San Andreas fault, which consists of two major active strands in the upper Coachella Valley area, dominates the geology, landforms, groundwater conditions and surface hydrology in the study area. Gouge associated with the faults impedes groundwater flow, resulting in shallow groundwater levels, lush vegetation, and the stabilization of large masses of sand dunes along the fault traces. Sand forms dominate the surface of the Coachella Valley and pose two barriers to storm water flow: a physical barrier created by their height, and a hydrologic barrier caused by their high infiltration rate. Probable routes of future storm water flows in the study area were evaluated using historical aerial photos of flood events that struck the area between 1974 and 1991. The Willow Hole gap is the most direct route for storm waters from the Little San Bernardino Mountains to the central Coachella Valley. Historical air photo data indicate that storm water from the Little San Bernardino Mountains does not normally flow through the gap, but rather is shunted around a large shutter ridge associated with the San Andreas fault. Two FLO-2D hydrologic models were developed to evaluate the 100-year flooding potential at the subject property from sources in the Little San Bernardino Mountains. The upstream model, which was run assuming no infiltration, was used as input to the downstream model, which was run using three different values for infiltration. Where infiltration was considered at all (even at a level much lower than the minimum predicted from soils mapping of the area), no storm water from the Little San Bernardino Mountains was able reach the 1 subject property whatsoever. The subject property therefore does not appear to be at risk from secondary flooding sources in the Little San Bernardino Mountains in the 100-year storm. This case study was performed in accordance with new guidelines for flood hazards on alluvial fans issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency who is the lead agency in the USA that identifies flood prone areas. 2

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyaupane, Narayan; Parajuli, Ranjan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most severe and costlier natural hazard in US. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The flood plain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural area in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on a HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows extreme increase in future design flood. The future design flood could be more than the historic 500yr flood. At the same time, the extent of flooding could go beyond the historic flood of 0.2% annual probability. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer and stake holders.

The use of sediment deposition maps as auxiliary data for hydraulic model calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukolwe, Micah; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Solomatine, Dimitri

2013-04-01

One aspect of the French disaster mitigation setup is the statutory Risk Prevention Plans (PPR, Plans de Prévention des Risques); i.e. spatial identification of potential disasters and mitigation measures. The maps are categorised into three zones depicting increasing disaster severity and potential mitigation measures (RTM, 1999). Taking the example of the city of Barcelonnette, in South France (French Alps), floods have been the most frequent occurring natural hazard (Flageollet et al., 1996). Consequently, a case is put forward for the need for accurate flood extent delineation to support the decision making process. For this study, the Barcelonnette case study was considered, whereby the last devastating flooding was in June 1957 (Weber, 1994). Contrary to the recent advances in the proliferation of data to support flood inundation studies (Bates, 2012; Bates, 2004; Di Baldassarre and Uhlenbrook, 2012; Schumann et al., 2009), constraints are faced when analysing flood inundation events that occurred before the 1970's. In absence of frequent flooding, the analysis of historical flood extents may play an important role in shaping the awareness of local stakeholders and support land-use and urban planning. This study is part of a probabilistic flood mapping (e.g. Di Baldassarre et al., 2010, Horrit, 2006) of the valley carried out in a Monte-Carlo framework, while taking into account the peak flow and the parametric uncertainty. The simulations were carried out using the sub-grid channel model extension of the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model (Bates et al, 2010; Neal et al., 2012). Sediment deposition maps (Lecarpentier, 1963) were used to analyse the model performance, additionally the graduation of the sediment deposition sizes showed the flood propagation and was used to analyse the model runs. However, there still remains the challenge of quantifying the uncertainty in the sediment deposition map and the actual flood extent.

Parcel-scale urban coastal flood mapping: Leveraging the multi-scale CoSMoS model for coastal flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallien, T.; Barnard, P. L.; Sanders, B. F.

2011-12-01

California coastal sea levels are projected to rise 1-1.4 meters in the next century and evidence suggests mean tidal range, and consequently, mean high water (MHW) is increasing along portions of Southern California Bight. Furthermore, emerging research indicates wind stress patterns associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) have suppressed sea level rise rates along the West Coast since 1980, and a reversal in this pattern would result in the resumption of regional sea level rise rates equivalent to or exceeding global mean sea level rise rates, thereby enhancing coastal flooding. Newport Beach is a highly developed, densely populated lowland along the Southern California coast currently subject to episodic flooding from coincident high tides and waves, and the frequency and intensity of flooding is expected to increase with projected future sea levels. Adaptation to elevated sea levels will require flood mapping and forecasting tools that are sensitive to the dominant factors affecting flooding including extreme high tides, waves and flood control infrastructure. Considerable effort has been focused on the development of nowcast and forecast systems including Scripps Institute of Oceanography's Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP) and the USGS Multi-hazard model, the Southern California Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS). However, fine scale local embayment dynamics and overtopping flows are needed to map unsteady flooding effects in coastal lowlands protected by dunes, levees and seawalls. Here, a recently developed two dimensional Godunov non-linear shallow water solver is coupled to water level and wave forecasts from the CoSMoS model to investigate the roles of tides, waves, sea level changes and flood control infrastructure in accurate flood mapping and forecasting. The results of this study highlight the important roles of topographic data, embayment hydrodynamics, water level uncertainties and critical flood processes required for meaningful prediction of sea level rise impacts and coastal flood forecasting.

Automated Mapping of Flood Events in the Mississippi River Basin Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartkovich, Mercedes; Baldwin-Zook, Helen Blue; Cruz, Dashiell; McVey, Nicholas; Ploetz, Chris; Callaway, Olivia

2017-01-01

The Mississippi River Basin is the fourth largest drainage basin in the world, and is susceptible to multi-level flood events caused by heavy precipitation, snow melt, and changes in water table levels. Conducting flood analysis during periods of disaster is a challenging endeavor for NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Geological Survey's Hazards Data Distribution Systems (USGS HDDS) due to heavily-involved research and lack of manpower. During this project, an automated script was generated that performs high-level flood analysis to relieve the workload for end-users. The script incorporated Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) tiles and utilized computer-learning techniques to generate accurate water extent maps. The script referenced the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-water mask to isolate areas of flood induced waters. These areas were overlaid onto the National Land Cover Database's (NLCD) land cover data, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScan data, and Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data (HIFLD) to determine the classification of areas impacted and the population density affected by flooding. The automated algorithm was initially tested on the September 2016 flood event that occurred in Upper Mississippi River Basin, and was then further tested on multiple flood events within the Mississippi River Basin. This script allows end users to create their own flood probability and impact maps for disaster mitigation and recovery efforts.

Calibrating a Rainfall-Runoff and Routing Model for the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jankowfsky, S.; Li, S.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Hilberts, A.

2014-12-01

Catastrophe risk models are widely used in the insurance industry to estimate the cost of risk. The models consist of hazard models linked to vulnerability and financial loss models. In flood risk models, the hazard model generates inundation maps. In order to develop country wide inundation maps for different return periods a rainfall-runoff and routing model is run using stochastic rainfall data. The simulated discharge and runoff is then input to a two dimensional inundation model, which produces the flood maps. In order to get realistic flood maps, the rainfall-runoff and routing models have to be calibrated with observed discharge data. The rainfall-runoff model applied here is a semi-distributed model based on the Topmodel (Beven and Kirkby, 1979) approach which includes additional snowmelt and evapotranspiration models. The routing model is based on the Muskingum-Cunge (Cunge, 1969) approach and includes the simulation of lakes and reservoirs using the linear reservoir approach. Both models were calibrated using the multiobjective NSGA-II (Deb et al., 2002) genetic algorithm with NLDAS forcing data and around 4500 USGS discharge gauges for the period from 1979-2013. Additional gauges having no data after 1979 were calibrated using CPC rainfall data. The model performed well in wetter regions and shows the difficulty of simulating areas with sinks such as karstic areas or dry areas. Beven, K., Kirkby, M., 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrol. Sci. Bull. 24 (1), 43-69. Cunge, J.A., 1969. On the subject of a flood propagation computation method (Muskingum method), J. Hydr. Research, 7(2), 205-230. Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., Meyarivan, T., 2002. A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE Transactions on evolutionary computation, 6(2), 182-197.

Flood hydrology and dam-breach hydraulic analyses of four reservoirs in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoogestraat, Galen K.

2011-01-01

Extensive information about the construction of dams or potential downstream hazards in the event of a dam breach is not available for many small reservoirs within the Black Hills National Forest. In 2009, the U.S. Forest Service identified the need for reconnaissance-level dam-breach assessments for four of these reservoirs within the Black Hills National Forest (Iron Creek, Horsethief, Lakota, and Mitchell Lakes) with the potential to flood downstream structures. Flood hydrology and dam-breach hydraulic analyses for the four selected reservoirs were conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Forest service to estimate the areal extent of downstream inundation. Three high-flow breach scenarios were considered for cases when the dam is in place (overtopped) and when a dam break (failure) occurs: the 100-year recurrence 24-hour precipitation, 500-year recurrence peak flow, and the probable maximum precipitation. Inundation maps were developed that show the estimated extent of downstream floodwaters from simulated scenarios. Simulation results were used to determine the hazard classification of a dam break (high, significant, or low), based primarily on the potential for loss of life or property damage resulting from downstream inundation because of the flood surge.The inflow design floods resulting from the two simulated storm events (100-year 24-hour and probable maximum precipitation) were determined using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). The inflow design flood for the 500-year recurrence peak flow was determined by using regional regression equations developed for streamflow-gaging stations with similar watershed characteristics. The step-backwater hydraulic analysis model, Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), was used to determine water-surface profiles of in-place and dam-break scenarios for the three inflow design floods that were simulated. Inundation maps for in-place and dam-break scenarios were developed for the area downstream from the dam to the mouth of each stream.Dam-break scenarios for three of the four reservoirs assessed in this study were rated as low hazards owing to absence of permanent structures downstream from the dams. Iron Creek Lake's downstream channel to its mouth does not include any permanent structures within the inundation flood plains. For the two reservoirs with the largest watershed areas, Lakota and Mitchell Lake, the additional floodwater surge resulting from a dam break would be minor relative to the magnitude of the large flood streamflow into the reservoirs, based on the similar areal extent of inundation for the in-place and dam-break scenarios as indicated by the developed maps. A dam-break scenario at Horsethief Lake is rated as a significant hazard because of potential lives-in-jeopardy in downstream dwellings and appreciable economic loss.

Monitoring and Mapping the Hurricane Harvey Flooding in Houston, Texas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaji Bhaskar, M. S.

2017-12-01

Monitoring and Mapping the Hurricane Harvey Flooding in Houston, Texas.Urban flooding is a hazard that causes major destruction and loss of life. High intense precipitation events have increased significantly in Houston, Texas in recent years resulting in frequent river and bayou flooding. Many of the historical storm events such as Allison, Rita and Ike have caused several billion dollars in losses for the Houston-Galveston Region. A category 4 Hurricane Harvey made landfall on South Texas resulting in heavy precipitation from Aug 25 to 29 of 2017. About 1 trillion gallons of water fell across Harris County over a 4-day period. This amount of water covers Harris County's 1,800 square miles with an average of 33 inches of water. The long rain event resulted in an average 40inch rainfall across the area in several rain gauges and the maximum rainfall of 49.6 inches was recorded near Clear Creek. The objectives of our study are to 1) Process the Geographic Information System (GIS) and satellite data from the pre and post Hurricane Harvey event in Houston, Texas and 2) Analyze the satellite imagery to map the nature and pattern of the flooding in Houston-Galveston Region. The GIS data of the study area was downloaded and processed from the various publicly available resources such as Houston Galveston Area Council (HGAC), Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) and Texas Natural Resource Information Systems (TNRIS). The satellite data collected soon after the Harvey flooding event were downloaded and processed using the ERDAS image processing software. The flood plain areas surrounding the Brazos River, Buffalo Bayou and the Addicks Barker reservoirs showed severe inundation. The different watershed areas affected by the catastrophic flooding in the wake of Hurricane Harvey were mapped and compared with the pre flooding event.

Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Dipendra

2017-12-01

This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 %) are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting and monitoring at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by a wide range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasting, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. Finally, emerging technologies such as crowdsourcing and social media monitoring can play a crucial role in flood disaster management and preparedness. Here, we present some recent advances of an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment. The procedure translates in near real-time the daily streamflow forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) into event-based flood hazard maps, which are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information at global scale to derive risk forecast. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To increase the reliability of our forecasts we propose the integration of model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification and correction of impact forecasts. Finally, we present the results of preliminary tests which show the potential of the proposed procedure in supporting emergency response and management.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Choluteca, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Choluteca that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Choluteca and Rio Iztoca. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Choluteca as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Choluteca and Rio Iztoca at Choluteca were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Choluteca at Choluteca is 4,620 cubic meters per second, which is the drainage-area-adjusted weighted-average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Choluteca en Puente Choluteca. One discharge, 4,913 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 17 years of peak discharge record for the gage, and the other, 2,650 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges at the gage is 4,530 cubic meters per second. The 50-year-flood discharge for the study area reach of Rio Choluteca was estimated by multiplying the weighted discharge at the gage by the ratio of the drainage areas upstream from the two locations. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Iztoca, which was estimated from the regression equation, is 430 cubic meters per second.

Forecasting surface water flooding hazard and impact in real-time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, Steven J.; Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.

2016-04-01

Across the world, there is increasing demand for more robust and timely forecast and alert information on Surface Water Flooding (SWF). Within a UK context, the government Pitt Review into the Summer 2007 floods provided recommendations and impetus to improve the understanding of SWF risk for both off-line design and real-time forecasting and warning. Ongoing development and trial of an end-to-end real-time SWF system is being progressed through the recently formed Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) with delivery to the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) providing coverage over England & Wales. The NHP is a unique forum that aims to deliver coordinated assessments, research and advice on natural hazards for governments and resilience communities across the UK. Within the NHP, a real-time Hazard Impact Model (HIM) framework has been developed that includes SWF as one of three hazards chosen for initial trialling. The trial SWF HIM system uses dynamic gridded surface-runoff estimates from the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) hydrological model to estimate the SWF hazard. National datasets on population, infrastructure, property and transport are available to assess impact severity for a given rarity of SWF hazard. Whilst the SWF hazard footprint is calculated in real-time using 1, 3 and 6 hour accumulations of G2G surface runoff on a 1 km grid, it has been possible to associate these with the effective rainfall design profiles (at 250m resolution) used as input to a detailed flood inundation model (JFlow+) run offline to produce hazard information resolved to 2m resolution. This information is contained in the updated Flood Map for Surface Water (uFMfSW) held by the Environment Agency. The national impact datasets can then be used with the uFMfSW SWF hazard dataset to assess impacts at this scale and severity levels of potential impact assigned at 1km and for aggregated county areas in real-time. The impact component is being led by the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) within the NHP. Flood Guidance within the FFC employs the national Flood Risk Matrix, which categorises potential impacts into minimal, minor, significant and severe, and Likelihood, into very low, low, medium and high classes, and the matrix entries then define the Overall Flood Risk as very low, low, medium and high. Likelihood is quantified by running G2G with Met Office ensemble rainfall inputs that in turn allows a probability to be assigned to the SWF hazard and associated impact. This overall procedure is being trialled and refined off-line by CEH and HSL using case study data, and at the same time implemented as a pre-operational test system at the Met Office for evaluation by FFC (a joint Environment Agency and Met Office centre for flood forecasting) in 2016.

Seismic hazard and risk assessment for large Romanian dams situated in the Moldavian Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moldovan, Iren-Adelina; Popescu, Emilia; Otilia Placinta, Anica; Petruta Constantin, Angela; Toma Danila, Dragos; Borleanu, Felix; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Moldoveanu, Traian

2016-04-01

Besides periodical technical inspections, the monitoring and the surveillance of dams' related structures and infrastructures, there are some more seismic specific requirements towards dams' safety. The most important one is the seismic risk assessment that can be accomplished by rating the dams into seismic risk classes using the theory of Bureau and Ballentine (2002), and Bureau (2003), taking into account the maximum expected peak ground motions at the dams site - values obtained using probabilistic hazard assessment approaches (Moldovan et al., 2008), the structures vulnerability and the downstream risk characteristics (human, economical, historic and cultural heritage, etc) in the areas that might be flooded in the case of a dam failure. Probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH), vulnerability and risk studies for dams situated in the Moldavian Platform, starting from Izvorul Muntelui Dam, down on Bistrita and following on Siret River and theirs affluent will be realized. The most vulnerable dams will be studied in detail and flooding maps will be drawn to find the most exposed downstream localities both for risk assessment studies and warnings. GIS maps that clearly indicate areas that are potentially flooded are enough for these studies, thus giving information on the number of inhabitants and goods that may be destroyed. Geospatial servers included topography is sufficient to achieve them, all other further studies are not necessary for downstream risk assessment. The results will consist of local and regional seismic information, dams specific characteristics and locations, seismic hazard maps and risk classes, for all dams sites (for more than 30 dams), inundation maps (for the most vulnerable dams from the region) and possible affected localities. The studies realized in this paper have as final goal to provide the local emergency services with warnings of a potential dam failure and ensuing flood as a result of an large earthquake occurrence, allowing further public training for evacuation. The work is supported from PNII/PCCA 2013 Project DARING 69/2014, financed by UEFISCDI, Romania. Bureau GJ (2003) "Dams and appurtenant facilities" Earthquake Engineering Handbook, CRS Press, WF Chen, and C Scawthorn (eds.), Boca Raton, pp. 26.1-26.47. Bureau GJ and Ballentine GD (2002) "A comprehensive seismic vulnerability and loss assessment of the State of Carolina using HAZUS. Part IV: Dam inventory and vulnerability assessment methodology", 7th National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, July 21-25, Boston, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Oakland, CA. Moldovan IA, Popescu E, Constantin A (2008), "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Romania: application for crustal seismic active zones", Romanian Journal of Physics, Vol.53, Nos. 3-4

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coast of Visakhapatnam, North-East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, G.; Grinivasa Kumar, T.

2016-08-01

The current study area is coastal zone of Visakhapatnam, district of Andhra Pradesh along the coast of India. This area is mostly vulnerable to many disasters such as storms, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This area is considered as cyclone prone area because of frequently occurrence of the cyclones in this area. Recently the two tropical cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal are Hudhud (October 13, 2014) and Phylin (October 11, 2013), has caused devastating impacts on the eastern coast and shows that the country has lack of preparedness to cyclone, storm surge and related natural hazards. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study carried out using parameters like probability of coastal slope, tsunami arrival height, future sea level rise, coastal erosion and tidal range. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared by overlaying of multi hazards those affecting the coastal zone. Multi-hazard vulnerability maps further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. The decision making tools presented here can provide a useful information during the disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy.

Calibration of 2D Hydraulic Inundation Models with SAR Imagery in the Floodplain Region of the Lower Tagus River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pestana, Rita; Matias, Magda; Canelas, Ricardo; Roque, Dora; Araujo, Amelia; Van Zeller, Emilia; Trigo-Teixeira, Antonio; Ferreira, Rui; Oliveira, Rodrigo; Heleno, Sandra; Falcão, Ana Paula; Gonçalves, Alexandre B.

2014-05-01

Floods account for 40% of all natural hazards worldwide and were responsible for the loss of about 100 thousand human lives and affected more than 1,4 million people in the last decade of the 20th century alone. Floods have been the deadliest natural hazard in Portugal in the last 100 years. In terms of inundated area, the largest floods in Portugal occur in the Lower Tagus (LT) River. On average, the river overflows every 2.5 years, at times blocking roads and causing important agricultural damages. The economical relevance of the area and the high frequency of the relevant flood events make the LT floodplain a good pilot region to conduct a data-driven, systematic calibration work of flood hydraulic models. This paper focus on the calibration of 2D-horizontal flood simulation models for the floods of 1997, 2001 and 2006 on a 70-km stretch of the LT River, between Tramagal and Omnias, using the software Tuflow. This computational engine provides 2D solutions based on the Stelling finite-difference, alternating direction implicit (ADI) scheme that solves the full 2D free surface shallow-water flow equations and allowed the introduction of structures that constrain water flow. The models were based on a digital terrain model (DTM) acquired in 2008 by radar techniques (5m of spatial resolution) and on in situ measurements of water elevation in Omnias (downstream boundary condition) and discharge in Tramagal and Zezere (upstream boundary conditions). Due to the relevancy of several dykes on this stretch of the LT River, non-existent on the available DTM, five of them were introduced in the models. All models have the same boundaries and were simulated using steady-state flow initial conditions. The resolution of the 2D grid mesh was 30m. Land cover data for the study area was retrieved from Corine Land Cover 2006 (CO-ordination of INformation on the Environment) with spatial resolution of 100m, and combined with estimated manning coefficients obtained in literature for the different land cover classes. Flood extent maps, derived from satellite-born Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), namely ERS SAR and ENVISAT ASAR imagery, provided the spatially distributed data needed for the calibration of the hydraulic models for the several floods. The flood extent maps obtained for each simulation were then compared with the flood extent maps derived from SAR imagery for each flood and the roughness coefficients changed accordingly. The models were also calibrated in terms of the stage at the gauging station Almourol, located 12km downriver from Tramagal. The combination of the calibration results for the several past floods provided 100 meters resolution Manning coefficient maps of the study area. An application of the obtained calibrated Manning coefficient maps was made for the largest flood of the 20th century (February 1979), for which no SAR imagery was available. In this case validation of the model was made in terms of the stage at the gauging station Almourol and at flood stage marks distributed throughout the floodplain.

The potential of crowdsourcing and mobile technology to support flood disaster risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

See, Linda; McCallum, Ian; Liu, Wei; Mechler, Reinhard; Keating, Adriana; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mochizuki, Junko; Fritz, Steffen; Dugar, Sumit; Arestegui, Michael; Szoenyi, Michael; Laso-Bayas, Juan-Carlos; Burek, Peter; French, Adam; Moorthy, Inian

2016-04-01

The last decade has seen a rise in citizen science and crowdsourcing for carrying out a variety of tasks across a number of different fields, most notably the collection of data such as the identification of species (e.g. eBird and iNaturalist) and the classification of images (e.g. Galaxy Zoo and Geo-Wiki). Combining human computing with the proliferation of mobile technology has resulted in vast amounts of geo-located data that have considerable value across multiple domains including flood disaster risk reduction. Crowdsourcing technologies, in the form of online mapping, are now being utilized to great effect in post-disaster mapping and relief efforts, e.g. the activities of Humanitarian OpenStreetMap, complementing official channels of relief (e.g. Haiti, Nepal and New York). Disaster event monitoring efforts have been further complemented with the use of social media (e.g. twitter for earthquakes, flood monitoring, and fire detection). Much of the activity in this area has focused on ex-post emergency management while there is considerable potential for utilizing crowdsourcing and mobile technology for vulnerability assessment, early warning and to bolster resilience to flood events. This paper examines the use of crowdsourcing and mobile technology for measuring and monitoring flood hazards, exposure to floods, and vulnerability, drawing upon examples from the literature and ongoing projects on flooding and food security at IIASA.

Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

2011-12-01

The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from the flood hazard model is used to drive a flood loss model that is coupled to a financial model.

A combined morphometric, sedimentary, GIS and modelling analysis of flooding and debris flow hazard on a composite alluvial fan, Caveside, Tasmania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kain, Claire L.; Rigby, Edward H.; Mazengarb, Colin

2018-02-01

Two episodes of intense flooding and sediment movement occurred in the Westmorland Stream alluvial system near Caveside, Australia in January 2011 and June 2016. The events were investigated in order to better understand the drivers and functioning of this composite alluvial system on a larger scale, so as to provide awareness of the potential hazard from future flood and debris flow events. A novel combination of methods was employed, including field surveys, catchment morphometry, GIS mapping from LiDAR and aerial imagery, and hydraulic modelling using RiverFlow-2D software. Both events were initiated by extreme rainfall events (< 1% Annual Exceedance Probability for durations exceeding 6 h) and resulted in flooding and sediment deposition across the alluvial fan. The impacts of the 2011 and 2016 events on the farmland appeared similar; however, there were differences in sediment source and transport processes that have implications for understanding recurrence probabilities. A debris flow was a key driver in the 2011 event, by eroding the stream channel in the forested watershed and delivering a large volume of sediment downstream to the alluvial fan. In contrast, modelled flooding velocities suggest the impacts of the 2016 event were the result of an extended period of extreme stream flooding and consequent erosion of alluvium directly above the current fan apex. The morphometry of the catchment is better aligned with values from fluvially dominated fans found elsewhere, which suggests that flooding represents a more frequent future risk than debris flows. These findings have wider implications for the estimation of debris flow and flood hazard on alluvial fans in Tasmania and elsewhere, as well as further demonstrating the capacity of combined hydraulic modelling and geomorphologic investigation as a predictive tool to inform hazard management practices in environments affected by flooding and sediment movement.

Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel; Aerts, Jeroen; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Van Aalst, Maarten; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip

2016-04-01

The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whilst the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is lacking. Hence, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. In this study, we show that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We show that fatalities and losses as a share of exposed population and gross domestic product are decreasing with rising income. We also show that there is a tendency of convergence in vulnerability levels between low- and high-income countries. Based on these findings, we simulate future flood impacts per country using traditional assumptions of static vulnerability through time, but also using future assumptions on reduced vulnerability in the future. We show that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies, including a reduction of vulnerability. The study was carried out using the global flood risk model, GLOFRIS, combined with high-resolution time-series maps of hazard and exposure at the global scale. Based on: Jongman et al., 2015. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, doi:10.1073/pnas.1414439112.

A comparative assessment of decision trees algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling at Haraz watershed, northern Iran.

PubMed

Khosravi, Khabat; Pham, Binh Thai; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Shahabi, Himan; Revhaug, Inge; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

2018-06-15

Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards causing huge loss of property, infrastructure and lives. Prediction of occurrence of flash flood locations is very difficult due to sudden change in climatic condition and manmade factors. However, prior identification of flood susceptible areas can be done with the help of machine learning techniques for proper timely management of flood hazards. In this study, we tested four decision trees based machine learning models namely Logistic Model Trees (LMT), Reduced Error Pruning Trees (REPT), Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Alternating Decision Trees (ADT) for flash flood susceptibility mapping at the Haraz Watershed in the northern part of Iran. For this, a spatial database was constructed with 201 present and past flood locations and eleven flood-influencing factors namely ground slope, altitude, curvature, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, rainfall, river density, distance from river, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical evaluation measures, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Freidman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to validate and compare the prediction capability of the models. Results show that the ADT model has the highest prediction capability for flash flood susceptibility assessment, followed by the NBT, the LMT, and the REPT, respectively. These techniques have proven successful in quickly determining flood susceptible areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improved Large-Scale Inundation Modelling by 1D-2D Coupling and Consideration of Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Processes - a Case Study in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoch, J. M.; Bierkens, M. F.; Van Beek, R.; Winsemius, H.; Haag, A.

2015-12-01

Understanding the dynamics of fluvial floods is paramount to accurate flood hazard and risk modeling. Currently, economic losses due to flooding constitute about one third of all damage resulting from natural hazards. Given future projections of climate change, the anticipated increase in the World's population and the associated implications, sound knowledge of flood hazard and related risk is crucial. Fluvial floods are cross-border phenomena that need to be addressed accordingly. Yet, only few studies model floods at the large-scale which is preferable to tiling the output of small-scale models. Most models cannot realistically model flood wave propagation due to a lack of either detailed channel and floodplain geometry or the absence of hydrologic processes. This study aims to develop a large-scale modeling tool that accounts for both hydrologic and hydrodynamic processes, to find and understand possible sources of errors and improvements and to assess how the added hydrodynamics affect flood wave propagation. Flood wave propagation is simulated by DELFT3D-FM (FM), a hydrodynamic model using a flexible mesh to schematize the study area. It is coupled to PCR-GLOBWB (PCR), a macro-scale hydrological model, that has its own simpler 1D routing scheme (DynRout) which has already been used for global inundation modeling and flood risk assessments (GLOFRIS; Winsemius et al., 2013). A number of model set-ups are compared and benchmarked for the simulation period 1986-1996: (0) PCR with DynRout; (1) using a FM 2D flexible mesh forced with PCR output and (2) as in (1) but discriminating between 1D channels and 2D floodplains, and, for comparison, (3) and (4) the same set-ups as (1) and (2) but forced with observed GRDC discharge values. Outputs are subsequently validated against observed GRDC data at Óbidos and flood extent maps from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory. The present research constitutes a first step into a globally applicable approach to fully couple hydrologic with hydrodynamic computations while discriminating between 1D-channels and 2D-floodplains. Such a fully-fledged set-up would be able to provide higher-order flood hazard information, e.g. time to flooding and flood duration, ultimately leading to improved flood risk assessment and management at the large scale.

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Juticalpa, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, M.C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Juticalpa that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Juticalpa. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Juticalpa as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood on Rio Juticalpa at Juticalpa were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Juticalpa at Juticalpa, 1,360 cubic meters per second, was computed as the drainage-area-adjusted weighted average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Juticalpa en El Torito, located about 2 kilometers upstream from Juticalpa. One discharge, 1,551 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 33 years of peak-discharge record for the gage, and the other, 486 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges at the gage is 1,310 cubic meters per second. The 50-year flood discharge for the study area reach of Rio Juticalpa was estimated by multiplying the weighted discharge at the gage by the ratio of the drainage areas upstream from the two locations.

Evaluation of various modelling approaches in flood routing simulation and flood area mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Vasiliades, Lampros; Aronica, Giuseppe

2016-04-01

An essential process of flood hazard analysis and mapping is the floodplain modelling. The selection of the modelling approach, especially, in complex riverine topographies such as urban and suburban areas, and ungauged watersheds may affect the accuracy of the outcomes in terms of flood depths and flood inundation area. In this study, a sensitivity analysis implemented using several hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches (1D, 2D, 1D/2D) and the effect of modelling approach on flood modelling and flood mapping was investigated. The digital terrain model (DTMs) used in this study was generated from Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) point cloud data. The modelling approaches included 1-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (1D), 2-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (2D) and the coupled 1D/2D. The 1D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: HECRAS, MIKE11, LISFLOOD, XPSTORM. The 2D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: MIKE21, MIKE21FM, HECRAS (2D), XPSTORM, LISFLOOD and FLO2d. The coupled 1D/2D models employed were: HECRAS(1D/2D), MIKE11/MIKE21(MIKE FLOOD platform), MIKE11/MIKE21 FM(MIKE FLOOD platform), XPSTORM(1D/2D). The validation process of flood extent achieved with the use of 2x2 contingency tables between simulated and observed flooded area for an extreme historical flash flood event. The skill score Critical Success Index was used in the validation process. The modelling approaches have also been evaluated for simulation time and requested computing power. The methodology has been implemented in a suburban ungauged watershed of Xerias river at Volos-Greece. The results of the analysis indicate the necessity of sensitivity analysis application with the use of different hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches especially for areas with complex terrain.

Mountain permafrost, glacier thinning, and slope stability - a perspective from British Columbia (and Alaska)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geertsema, Marten

2016-04-01

The association of landslides with thinning glaciers and mapped, or measured, mountain permafrost is increasing. Glacier thinning debuttresses slopes and promotes joint expansion. It is relatively easy to map. Permafrost, a thermal condition, is generally not visually detectible, and is difficult to map. Much mountain permafrost may have been overlooked in hazard analysis. Identifying, and characterizing mountain permafrost, and its influence on slope instability is crucial for hazard and risk analysis in mountainous terrain. Rock falls in mountains can be the initial event in process chains. They can transform into rock avalanches, debris flows or dam burst floods, travelling many kilometres, placing infrastructure and settlements at risk.

Application of Landsat-8 and ALOS-2 data for structural and landslide hazard mapping in Kelantan, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beiranvand Pour, Amin; Hashim, Mazlan

2017-07-01

Identification of high potential risk and susceptible zones for natural hazards of geological origin is one of the most important applications of advanced remote sensing technology. Yearly, several landslides occur during heavy monsoon rainfall in Kelantan River basin, Peninsular Malaysia. Flooding and subsequent landslide occurrences generated significant damage to livestock, agricultural produce, homes and businesses in the Kelantan River basin. In this study, remote sensing data from the recently launched Landsat-8 and Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (PALSAR-2) on board the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2) were used to map geologic structural and topographical features in the Kelantan River basin for identification of high potential risk and susceptible zones for landslides and flooding areas. The data were processed for a comprehensive analysis of major geological structures and detailed characterizations of lineaments, drainage patterns and lithology at both regional and district scales. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) approach was used for landslide susceptibility mapping. Several factors such as slope, aspect, soil, lithology, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), land cover, distance to drainage, precipitation, distance to fault and distance to the road were extracted from remote sensing satellite data and fieldwork to apply the AHP approach. Directional convolution filters were applied to ALOS-2 data for identifying linear features in particular directions and edge enhancement in the spatial domain. Results indicate that lineament occurrence at regional scale was mainly linked to the N-S trending of the Bentong-Raub Suture Zone (BRSZ) in the west and Lebir Fault Zone in the east of the Kelantan state. The combination of different polarization channels produced image maps that contain important information related to water bodies, wetlands and lithological units. The N-S, NE-SW and NNE-SSW lineament trends and dendritic, sub-dendritic and rectangular drainage patterns were detected in the Kelantan River basin. The analysis of field investigation data indicates that many of flooded areas were associated with high potential risk zones for hydrogeological hazards such as wetlands, urban areas, floodplain scroll, meander bend, dendritic and sub-dendritic drainage patterns, which are located in flat topographic regions. Numerous landslide points were located in a rectangular drainage system that is associated with a topographic slope of metamorphic and quaternary rock units. Consequently, structural and topographical geology maps were produced for Kelantan River basin using PALSAR-2 data, which could be broadly applicable for landslide hazard mapping and identification of high potential risk zone for hydrogeological hazards. Geohazard mitigation programs could be conducted in the landslide recurrence regions and flooded areas to reduce natural catastrophes leading to loss of life and financial investments in the Kelantan River basin. In this investigation, Landsat-8 and ALOS-2 have proven to successfully provide advanced Earth observation satellite data for disaster monitoring in tropical environments.

Meteorological Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation in Rwanda.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nduwayezu, Emmanuel; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Bugnon, Pierre-Charles; Nsengiyumva, Jean-Baptiste; Horton, Pascal; Derron, Marc-Henri

2015-04-01

Between 10 and 13 April 2012, heavy rains hit sectors adjacent to the Vulcanoes National Park (Musanze District in the Northern Province and Nyabihu and Rubavu Districts in the Western Province of RWANDA), causing floods that affected about 11,000 persons. Flooding caused deaths and injuries among the affected population, and extensive damage to houses and properties. 348 houses were destroyed and 446 were partially damaged or have been underwater for several days. Families were forced to leave their flooded homes and seek temporal accommodation with their neighbors, often in overcrowded places. Along the West-northern border of RWANDA, Virunga mountain range consists of 6 major volcanoes. Mount Karisimbi is the highest volcano at 4507m. The oldest mountain is mount Sabyinyo which rises 3634m. The hydraulic network in Musanze District is formed by temporary torrents and permanent watercourses. Torrents surge during strong storms, and are provoked by water coming downhill from the volcanoes, some 20 km away. This area is periodically affected by flooding and landslides because of heavy rain (Rwanda has 2 rainy seasons from February to April and from September to November each year in general and 2 dry seasons) striking the Volcano National Park. Rain water creates big water channels (in already known torrents or new ones) that impact communities, agricultural soils and crop yields. This project aims at identifying hazardous and risky areas by producing susceptibility maps for floods, debris flow and landslides over this sector. Susceptibility maps are being drawn using field observations, during and after the 2012 events, and an empirical model of propagation for regional susceptibility assessments of debris flows (Flow-R). Input data are 10m and 30m resolution DEMs, satellite images, hydrographic network, and some information on geological substratum and soil occupation. Combining susceptibility maps with infrastructures, houses and population density maps will be used in identifying the most risky areas. Finally, based on practical experiences in this kind of field and produced documents some recommendations for low-cost mitigation measures will be proposed. Reference: MIDIMAR, Impacts of floods and landslides on socio-economic development profile. Case study: Musanze District. Kigali, June 2012.

A fully automatic tool to perform accurate flood mapping by merging remote sensing imagery and ancillary data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Addabbo, Annarita; Refice, Alberto; Lovergine, Francesco; Pasquariello, Guido

2016-04-01

Flooding is one of the most frequent and expansive natural hazard. High-resolution flood mapping is an essential step in the monitoring and prevention of inundation hazard, both to gain insight into the processes involved in the generation of flooding events, and from the practical point of view of the precise assessment of inundated areas. Remote sensing data are recognized to be useful in this respect, thanks to the high resolution and regular revisit schedules of state-of-the-art satellites, moreover offering a synoptic overview of the extent of flooding. In particular, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data present several favorable characteristics for flood mapping, such as their relative insensitivity to the meteorological conditions during acquisitions, as well as the possibility of acquiring independently of solar illumination, thanks to the active nature of the radar sensors [1]. However, flood scenarios are typical examples of complex situations in which different factors have to be considered to provide accurate and robust interpretation of the situation on the ground: the presence of many land cover types, each one with a particular signature in presence of flood, requires modelling the behavior of different objects in the scene in order to associate them to flood or no flood conditions [2]. Generally, the fusion of multi-temporal, multi-sensor, multi-resolution and/or multi-platform Earth observation image data, together with other ancillary information, seems to have a key role in the pursuit of a consistent interpretation of complex scenes. In the case of flooding, distance from the river, terrain elevation, hydrologic information or some combination thereof can add useful information to remote sensing data. Suitable methods, able to manage and merge different kind of data, are so particularly needed. In this work, a fully automatic tool, based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) [3] and able to perform data fusion, is presented. It supplies flood maps describing the dynamics of each analysed event, combining time series of images, acquired by different sensors, with ancillary information. Some experiments have been performed by combining multi-temporal SAR intensity images, InSAR coherence and optical data, with geomorphic and other ground information. The tool has been tested on different flood events occurred in the Basilicata region (Italy) during the last years, showing good capabilities of identification of a large area interested by the flood phenomenon, partially overcoming the obstacle constituted by the presence of scattering/coherence classes corresponding to different land cover types, which respond differently to the presence of water and to inundation evolution [1] A. Refice et al, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, vol. 7, no. 7, pp. 2711-2722, 2014. [2] L. Pulvirenti et al., IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens., Vol. PP, pp. 1- 13, 2015. [3] A. D'Addabbo et al., "A Bayesian Network for Flood Detection combining SAR Imagery and Ancillary Data," IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens., in press.

Hydraulic and hydrologic aspects of flood-plain planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiitala, S.W.; Jetter, K.R.; Sommerville, Alan J.

1961-01-01

The valid incentives compelling occupation of the flood plain, up to and eve n into the stream channel, undoubtedly have contributed greatly to the development of the country. But the result has been a heritage of flood disaster, suffering, and enormous costs. Flood destruction awakened a consciousness toward reduction and elimination of flood hazards, originally manifested in the protection of existing developments. More recently, increased knowledge of the problem has shown the impracticability of permitting development that requires costly flood protect/on. The idea of flood zoning, or flood-plain planning, has received greater impetus as a result of this realization. This study shows how hydraulic and hydrologic data concerning the flood regimen of a stream can be used in appraising its flood potential and the risk inherent in occupation of its flood plain. The approach involves the study of flood magnitudes as recorded or computed; flood frequencies based1 on experience shown by many years of gaging-station record; use of existing or computed stagedischarge relations and flood profiles; and, where required, the preparation of flood-zone maps to show the areas inundated by floods of several magnitudes and frequencies. The planner can delineate areas subject to inundation by floods o* specific recurrence intervals for three conditions: (a) for the immediate vicinity of a gaging station; (b) for a gaged stream at a considerable distance from a gaging station; and (c) for an ungaged stream. The average depth for a flood of specific frequency can be estimated on the basis of simple measurements of area of drainage basin, width of channel, and slope of streambed. This simplified approach should be useful in the initial stages of flood-plain planning. Brief discussions are included on various types of flood hazards, the effects of urbanization on flood runoff, and zoning considerations.

Environmental legislation as the legal framework for mitigating natural hazards in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrido, Jesús; Arana, Estanislao; Jiménez Soto, Ignacio; Delgado, José

2015-04-01

In Spain, the socioeconomic losses due to natural hazards (floods, earthquakes or landslides) are considerable, and the indirect costs associated with them are rarely considered because they are very difficult to evaluate. The prevention of losses due to natural hazards is more economic and efficient through legislation and spatial planning rather than through structural measures, such as walls, anchorages or structural reinforcements. However, there isn't a Spanish natural hazards law and national and regional sector legislation make only sparse mention of them. After 1978, when the Spanish Constitution was enacted, the Autonomous Communities (Spanish regions) were able to legislate according to the different competences (urban planning, environment or civil protection), which were established in the Constitution. In the 1990's, the Civil Protection legislation (national law and regional civil protection tools) dealt specifically with natural hazards (floods, earthquakes and volcanoes), but this was before any soil, seismic or hydrological studies were recommended in the national sector legislation. On the other hand, some Autonomous Communities referred to natural hazards in the Environmental Impact Assessment legislation (EIA) and also in the spatial and urban planning legislation and tools. The National Land Act, enacted in 1998, established, for the first time, that those lands exposed to natural hazards should be classified as non-developable. The Spanish recast text of the Land Act, enacted by Royal Legislative Decree 2/2008, requires that a natural hazards map be included in the Environmental Sustainability Report (ESR), which is compulsory for all master plans, according to the provisions set out by Act 9/2006, known as Spanish Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). Consequently, the environmental legislation, after the aforementioned transposition of the SEA European Directive 2001/42/EC, is the legal framework to prevent losses due to natural hazards through land use planning. However, most of the Spanish master plans approved after 2008 don't include a natural hazards map or/and don't classify the areas exposed to natural hazards as non-developable. Restrictions or prohibitions for building in natural hazard-prone areas are not usually established in the master plans. According to the jurisprudence, the environmental legislation prevails over spatial and urban planning regulations. On the other hand, the precedence of the national competence in public security would allow reclassification or the land, independently of the political or economic motivations of the municipal government. Despite of the technical building code or the seismic building code where some recommendations for avoiding "geotechnical" or seismic hazards are established, there are not compulsory guidelines to do technical studies/hazard maps for floods or landslides. The current legislation should be improved, under a technical point of view, and some mechanisms for enforcing the law should be also considered.

Social media as an information source for rapid flood inundation mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fohringer, J.; Dransch, D.; Kreibich, H.; Schröter, K.

2015-12-01

During and shortly after a disaster, data about the hazard and its consequences are scarce and not readily available. Information provided by eyewitnesses via social media is a valuable information source, which should be explored in a~more effective way. This research proposes a methodology that leverages social media content to support rapid inundation mapping, including inundation extent and water depth in the case of floods. The novelty of this approach is the utilization of quantitative data that are derived from photos from eyewitnesses extracted from social media posts and their integration with established data. Due to the rapid availability of these posts compared to traditional data sources such as remote sensing data, areas affected by a flood, for example, can be determined quickly. The challenge is to filter the large number of posts to a manageable amount of potentially useful inundation-related information, as well as to interpret and integrate the posts into mapping procedures in a timely manner. To support rapid inundation mapping we propose a methodology and develop "PostDistiller", a tool to filter geolocated posts from social media services which include links to photos. This spatial distributed contextualized in situ information is further explored manually. In an application case study during the June 2013 flood in central Europe we evaluate the utilization of this approach to infer spatial flood patterns and inundation depths in the city of Dresden.

Social media as an information source for rapid flood inundation mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fohringer, J.; Dransch, D.; Kreibich, H.; Schröter, K.

2015-07-01

During and shortly after a disaster data about the hazard and its consequences are scarce and not readily available. Information provided by eye-witnesses via social media are a valuable information source, which should be explored in a more effective way. This research proposes a methodology that leverages social media content to support rapid inundation mapping, including inundation extent and water depth in case of floods. The novelty of this approach is the utilization of quantitative data that are derived from photos from eye-witnesses extracted from social media posts and its integration with established data. Due to the rapid availability of these posts compared to traditional data sources such as remote sensing data, for example areas affected by a flood can be determined quickly. The challenge is to filter the large number of posts to a manageable amount of potentially useful inundation-related information as well as their timely interpretation and integration in mapping procedures. To support rapid inundation mapping we propose a methodology and develop a tool to filter geo-located posts from social media services which include links to photos. This spatial distributed contextualized in-situ information is further explored manually. In an application case study during the June 2013 flood in central Europe we evaluate the utilization of this approach to infer spatial flood patterns and inundation depths in the city of Dresden.

Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; O'Neill, Andrea; Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Finzi Hart, Juliette; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick; Hayden, Maya; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Lovering, Jessica; Foxgrover, Amy C.

2018-01-01

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km2) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.

Historic flooding in northern Georgia, September 16-22, 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCallum, Brian E.; Gotvald, Anthony J.

2010-01-01

A primary mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is the measurement and documentation of the magnitude and extent of hydrologic hazards, such as floods, droughts, and hurricane storm surge. USGS personnel were deployed to document historic, widespread flooding that occurred throughout the Atlanta metropolitan area and northwestern Georgia in the early fall of 2009. The floods were created by prolonged rainfall that occurred during September 16?22, 2009, with an especially intense period of rainfall during the late evening of September 20. The National Weather Service (NWS) reported that the southeastern United States had above-normal precipitation from August into early September, resulting in saturated soil conditions making the region extremely flood prone. Precipitation totals were the sixth highest on record for the month of September for the region (National Weather Service, 2010). Lessons learned from this flood include the need for more effective communication of the latest river information by Federal agencies with flood-threatened communities. Communicating the flood threat in an easy, accessible manner would have helped emergency managers and the public greatly during this flood. In response, the USGS developed WaterAlert (http://water.usgs.gov/wateralert/) to send notifications of flood events by way of text and e-mail. Also in development are real-time flood-inundation maps to give the hydrograph spatial context by way of a map-based product.

Robust flood area detection using a L-band synthetic aperture radar: Preliminary application for Florida, the U.S. affected by Hurricane Irma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagai, H.; Ohki, M.; Abe, T.

2017-12-01

Urgent crisis response for a hurricane-induced flood needs urgent providing of a flood map covering a broad region. However, there is no standard threshold values for automatic flood identification from pre-and-post images obtained by satellite-based synthetic aperture radars (SARs). This problem could hamper prompt data providing for operational uses. Furthermore, one pre-flood SAR image does not always represent potential water surfaces and river flows especially in tropical flat lands which are greatly influenced by seasonal precipitation cycle. We are, therefore, developing a new method of flood mapping using PALSAR-2, an L-band SAR, which is less affected by temporal surface changes. Specifically, a mean-value image and a standard-deviation image are calculated from a series of pre-flood SAR images. It is combined with a post-flood SAR image to obtain normalized backscatter amplitude difference (NoBADi), with which a difference between a post-flood image and a mean-value image is divided by a standard-deviation image to emphasize anomalous water extents. Flooding areas are then automatically obtained from the NoBADi images as lower-value pixels avoiding potential water surfaces. We applied this method to PALSAR-2 images acquired on Sept. 8, 10, and 12, 2017, covering flooding areas in a central region of Dominican Republic and west Florida, the U.S. affected by Hurricane Irma. The output flooding outlines are validated with flooding areas manually delineated from high-resolution optical satellite images, resulting in higher consistency and less uncertainty than previous methods (i.e., a simple pre-and-post flood difference and pre-and-post coherence changes). The NoBADi method has a great potential to obtain a reliable flood map for future flood hazards, not hampered by cloud cover, seasonal surface changes, and "casual" thresholds in the flood identification process.

Application of a new methodology for coastal multi-hazard-assessment & management on the state of Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Rosendahl Appelquist, Lars; Balstrøm, Thomas

2015-04-01

This paper presents the application of a new methodology for coastal multi-hazard assessment & management under a changing global climate on the state of Karnataka, India. The recently published methodology termed the Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW) is designed for local, regional and national hazard screening in areas with limited data availability, and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The application makes use of published geophysical data and remote sensing information and is showcasing how the CHW framework can be applied at a scale relevant for regional planning purposes. It uses a GIS approach to develop regional and sub-regional hazard maps as well as to produce relevant hazard risk data, and includes a discussion of uncertainties, limitations and management perspectives. The hazard assessment shows that 61 percent of Karnataka's coastline has a high or very high inherent hazard of erosion, making erosion the most prevalent coastal hazard. The hazards of flooding and salt water intrusion are also relatively widespread as 39 percent of Karnataka's coastline has a high or very high inherent hazard for both of these hazard types. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The European flood risk directive: challenges for research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostert, E.; Junier, S. J.

2009-07-01

In recent years, flood management has shifted from protection against floods to managing the risks of floods. In Europe, this shift is reflected in the Flood risk directive of October 2007 (2007/60/EC; FRD). The FRD requires EU Member States to undertake a preliminary assessment of flood risks and, for areas with a significant flood risk, to prepare flood hazard and flood risk maps and flood risk management plans. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the FRD and discuss the challenges that the FRD poses to research. These challenges include the issue how to define and measure ''flood risk'', the selection of alternatives to be assessed, coping with uncertainty, risk communication, nurturing trust and promoting collaboration. These research challenges cannot be addressed properly within any single discipline and without involving the flood risk managers and other stakeholders. The paper therefore concludes that there is a large need for interdisciplinary and participatory research. This constitutes in fact the biggest research challenge.

Flood frequency analysis and generation of flood hazard indicator maps in a semi-arid environment, case of Ourika watershed (western High Atlas, Morocco)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Alaoui El Fels, Abdelhafid; Alaa, Noureddine; Bachnou, Ali; Rachidi, Said

2018-05-01

The development of the statistical models and flood risk modeling approaches have seen remarkable improvements in their productivities. Their application in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly in developing countries, can be extremely useful for better assessment and planning of flood risk in order to reduce the catastrophic impacts of this phenomenon. This study focuses on the Setti Fadma region (Ourika basin, Morocco) which is potentially threatened by floods and is subject to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. The study is based on two main axes: (i) the extreme flow frequency analysis, using 12 probability laws adjusted by Maximum Likelihood method and (ii) the generation of the flood risk indicator maps are based on the solution proposed by the Nays2DFlood solver of the Hydrodynamic model of two-dimensional Saint-Venant equations. The study is used as a spatial high-resolution digital model (Lidar) in order to get the nearest hydrological simulation of the reality. The results showed that the GEV is the most appropriate law of the extreme flows estimation for different return periods. Taking into consideration the mapping of 100-year flood area, the study revealed that the fluvial overflows extent towards the banks of Ourika and consequently, affects some living areas, cultivated fields and the roads that connects the valley to the city of Marrakech. The aim of this study is to propose new technics of the flood risk management allowing a better planning of the flooded areas.

78 FR 20344 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-04

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID FEMA-2013-0002... the online location and the respective Community Map Repository address listed in the tables below. Additionally, the current effective FIRM and FIS report for each community are accessible online through the...

77 FR 18835 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-28

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency [Docket ID FEMA-2012-0003... the online location and the respective Community Map Repository address listed in the tables below. Additionally, the current effective FIRM and FIS report for each community are accessible online through the...

78 FR 36215 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-17

... Cloud County, Kansas, and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: www.fema.gov.... City of Miltonvale City Hall, 107 Starr Avenue, Miltonvale, KS 67466. Unincorporated Areas of Cloud County... Cloud County Courthouse, 811 Washington Street, Concordia, KS 66901. (Catalog of Federal...

A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

2017-12-01

There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for El-Awali River Catchment-Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Hijazi, Samar

2016-04-01

River flooding prediction and flood forecasting has become an essential stage in the major flood mitigation plans worldwide. Delineation of floodplains resulting from a river flooding event requires coupling between a Hydrological rainfall-runoff model to calculate the resulting outflows of the catchment and a hydraulic model to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along the river main course. In this study several methods were applied to predict the flood discharge of El-Awali River using the available historical data and gauging records and by conducting several site visits. The HEC-HMS Rainfall-Runoff model was built and applied to calculate the flood hydrographs along several outlets on El-Awali River and calibrated using the storm that took place on January 2013 and caused flooding of the major Lebanese rivers and by conducting additional site visits to calculate proper river sections and record witnesses of the locals. The Hydraulic HEC-RAS model was then applied to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along El-Awali River main reach. Floodplain delineation and Hazard mapping for 10,50 and 100 years return periods was performed using the Watershed Modeling System WMS. The results first show an underestimation of the flood discharge recorded by the operating gauge stations on El-Awali River, whereas, the discharge of the 100 years flood may reach up to 506 m3/s compared by lower values calculated using the traditional discharge estimation methods. Second any flooding of El-Awali River may be catastrophic especially to the coastal part of the catchment and can cause tragic losses in agricultural lands and properties. Last a major floodplain was noticed in Marj Bisri village this floodplain can reach more than 200 meters in width. Overall, performance was good and the Rainfall-Runoff model can provide valuable information about flows especially on ungauged points and can perform a great aid for the floodplain delineation and flood prediction methods in poorly gauged basins, but further model updates and calibration is always required to compensate the weaknesses in such model and attain better results.

78 FR 45938 - Final Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-30

...] Final Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Final notice. SUMMARY: Flood hazard determinations, which may include additions or modifications of Base Flood Elevations (BFEs), base flood depths, Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) boundaries or zone designations, or...

A physically based criterion for hydraulic hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milanesi, Luca; Pilotti, Marco; Petrucci, Olga

2013-04-01

Hydraulic hazard maps are widely used for land use and emergency planning. Due to their practical consequences, it is important that their meaning is effectively transferred and shared by the stakeholders; to this purpose maps should communicate hazard levels moving from the potential consequences on specified targets. For these reasons flood maps showing only the extension of the inundated areas or flow features as depth and/or velocity may reveal themselves as ineffective instruments. The selection of the specific target to analyse must, in our opinion, be site-specific and reflect land use and/or the hydraulics features of the phenomenon. In case of sudden processes, such as torrential floods or debris flows, hazard levels should be referred to human life, because emergency plans may not mitigate risk; on the contrary, when the time scale of the flood wave propagation is sufficiently larger than the warning system one, the focus might move to the economic value of properties, since human-focused criteria may result in too severe land planning restrictions. This contribution starts exploring, from a theoretical point of view, human hazard levels as drowning, toppling and friction stability limits, which are the main failure mechanisms of human stability in flows. The proposed approach considers the human body, set on a slope and hit by a current of known density, as a combination of cylinders with different dimensions. The drowning threshold is identified through a limiting water depth, while toppling and translation are studied respectively through a moment and momentum balance. The involved forces are the friction at the bottom, the destabilizing drag force exerted by the current, the human weight and buoyancy. Several threshold curves on the velocity-depth plane can be identified as a function of different masses and heights for children and adults. Because of its dependence from the fluid density, this methodology may be applied also to define hazard thresholds for debris flows if the simplification of considering the presence of debris through an augmented density of the fluid continuum is accepted. This methodology, which fits with most literature experimental dataset for both adults and children impacted by a flood, is then tested with historical data concerning flood events truly occurred in the past. Data have been mined from a historical database containing approximately 11000 records concerning the effects of hydro-meteorological events occurred in Calabria (southern Italy) since 19th century, selecting only the events where people were directly involved. These data come from different sources as newspapers, archives of national and regional agencies, scientific and technical reports, on-site surveys reports and information collected by interviewing both involved people and local administrators. Dealing with descriptive information of events occurred in different historical periods and morpho-climatic sectors of the region, the quantities required to implement the model can be found in a limited number of recent cases. In order to widen the data set that can be used to validate the proposed methodology, we explore some approaches to indirectly assess the parameters required to implement the model.

The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) Project: Status of SAR products for Earthquakes, Floods, Volcanoes and Groundwater-related Subsidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, S. E.; Yun, S. H.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Liu, Z.; Sacco, G. F.; Manipon, G.; Linick, J. P.; Fielding, E. J.; Lundgren, P.; Farr, T. G.; Webb, F.; Rosen, P. A.; Simons, M.

2017-12-01

The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project for Natural Hazards is focused on rapidly generating high-level geodetic imaging products and placing them in the hands of the solid earth science and local, national, and international natural hazard communities by providing science product generation, exploration, and delivery capabilities at an operational level. Space-based geodetic measurement techniques including Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), differential Global Positioning System, and SAR-based change detection have become critical additions to our toolset for understanding and mapping the damage and deformation caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides, and groundwater extraction. Up until recently, processing of these data sets has been handcrafted for each study or event and has not generated products rapidly and reliably enough for response to natural disasters or for timely analysis of large data sets. The ARIA project, a joint venture co-sponsored by the California Institute of Technology and by NASA through the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, has been capturing the knowledge applied to these responses and building it into an automated infrastructure to generate imaging products in near real-time that can improve situational awareness for disaster response. In addition to supporting the growing science and hazard response communities, the ARIA project has developed the capabilities to provide automated imaging and analysis capabilities necessary to keep up with the influx of raw SAR data from geodetic imaging missions such as ESA's Sentinel-1A/B, now operating with repeat intervals as short as 6 days, and the upcoming NASA NISAR mission. We will present the progress and results we have made on automating the analysis of Sentinel-1A/B SAR data for hazard monitoring and response, with emphasis on recent developments and end user engagement in flood extent mapping and deformation time series for both volcano monitoring and mapping of groundwater-related subsidence

Disseminating near-real-time hazards information and flood maps in the Philippines through Web-GIS.

PubMed

A Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco; Racoma, Bernard Alan; Aracan, Ken Adrian; Alconis-Ayco, Jenalyn; Saddi, Ivan Lester

2017-09-01

The Philippines being a locus of tropical cyclones, tsunamis, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. These natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property. Situated in a region where climate and geophysical tempest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. In 2012, the Philippines launched a responsive program for disaster prevention and mitigation called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH), specifically for government warning agencies to be able to provide a 6hr lead-time warning to vulnerable communities against impending floods and to use advanced technology to enhance current geo-hazard vulnerability maps. To disseminate such critical information to as wide an audience as possible, a Web-GIS using mashups of freely available source codes and application program interface (APIs) was developed and can be found in the URLs http://noah.dost.gov.ph and http://noah.up.edu.ph/. This Web-GIS tool is now heavily used by local government units in the Philippines in their disaster prevention and mitigation efforts and can be replicated in countries that have a proactive approach to address the impacts of natural hazards but lack sufficient funds. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Coastal flooding hazard related to storms and coastal evolution in Valdelagrana spit (Cadiz Bay Natural Park, SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, J.; Del Río, L.; Gracia, F. J.; Martínez-del-Pozo, J. A.

2006-06-01

Mapping of coastal inundation hazard related to storms requires the combination of multiple sources of information regarding meteorological, morphological and dynamic characteristics of both the area at risk and the studied phenomena. Variables such as beach slope, storm wave height or wind speed have traditionally been used, but detailed geomorphological features of the area as well as long-term shoreline evolution trends must also be taken into account in order to achieve more realistic results. This work presents an evaluation of storm flooding hazard in Valdelagrana spit and marshes (SW Spain), considering two types of storm that are characteristic of the area: a modal storm with 1 year of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 3.3 m), and an extreme storm with 6-10 years of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 10.6 m), both approaching the coast perpendicularly. After calculating theoretical storm surge elevation, a digital terrain model was made by adjusting topographic data to field work and detailed geomorphological analysis. A model of flooding extent was subsequently developed for each storm type, and then corrected according to the rates of shoreline change in the last decades, which were assessed by means of aerial photographs taking the dune toe as shoreline indicator. Results show that long-term coastline trend represents an important factor in the prediction of flooding extent, since shoreline retreat causes the deterioration of natural coastal defences as dune ridges, thus increasing coastal exposure to high-energy waves. This way, it has been stated that the lack of sedimentary supply plays an important role in spatial variability of inundation extent in Valdelagrana spit. Finally, a hazard map is presented, where calculated coastal retreat rates are employed in order to predict the areas that could be affected by future inundation events.

Current and future pluvial flood hazard analysis for the city of Antwerp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick; Tabari, Hossein; De Niel, Jan; Van Uytven, Els; Lambrechts, Griet; Wellens, Geert

2016-04-01

For the city of Antwerp in Belgium, higher rainfall extremes were observed in comparison with surrounding areas. The differences were found statistically significant for some areas and may be the result of the heat island effect in combination with the higher concentrations of aerosols. A network of 19 rain gauges but with varying records length (the longest since the 1960s) and continuous radar data for 10 years were combined to map the spatial variability of rainfall extremes over the city at various durations from 15 minutes to 1 day together with the uncertainty. The improved spatial rainfall information was used as input in the sewer system model of the city to analyze the frequency of urban pluvial floods. Comparison with historical flood observations from various sources (fire brigade and media) confirmed that the improved spatial rainfall information also improved sewer impact results on both the magnitude and frequency of the sewer floods. Next to these improved urban flood impact results for recent and current climatological conditions, the new insights on the local rainfall microclimate were also helpful to enhance future projections on rainfall extremes and pluvial floods in the city. This was done by improved statistical downscaling of all available CMIP5 global climate model runs (160 runs) for the 4 RCP scenarios, as well as the available EURO-CORDEX regional climate model runs. Two types of statistical downscaling methods were applied for that purpose (a weather typing based method, and a quantile perturbation approach), making use of the microclimate results and its dependency on specific weather types. Changes in extreme rainfall intensities were analyzed and mapped as a function of the RCP scenario, together with the uncertainty, decomposed in the uncertainties related to the climate models, the climate model initialization or limited length of the 30-year time series (natural climate variability) and the statistical downscaling (albeit limited to two types of methods). These were finally transferred into future pluvial flash flood hazard maps for the city together with the uncertainties, and are considered as basis for spatial planning and adaptation.

Spatial Analysis of Land Subsidence and Flood Pattern Based on DInSAR Method in Sentinel Sar Imagery and Weighting Method in Geo-Hazard Parameters Combination in North Jakarta Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyo, Y.; Yuwono, B. D.; Ramadhanis, Z.

2018-02-01

The reclamation program carried out in most cities in North Jakarta is directly adjacent to the Jakarta Bay. Beside this program, the density of population and development center in North Jakarta office has increased the need for underground water excessively. As a result of these things, land subsidence in North Jakarta area is relatively high and so intense. The research methodology was developed based on the method of remote sensing and geographic information systems, expected to describe the spatial correlation between the land subsidence and flood phenomenon in North Jakarta. The DInSAR (Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) method with satellite image data Radar (SAR Sentinel 1A) for the years 2015 to 2016 acquisitions was used in this research. It is intended to obtain a pattern of land subsidence in North Jakarta and then combined with flood patterns. For the preparation of flood threat zoning pattern, this research has been modeling in spatial technique based on a weighted parameter of rainfall, elevation, flood zones and land use. In the final result, we have obtained a flood hazard zonation models then do the overlap against DInSAR processing results. As a result of the research, Geo-hazard modelling has a variety results as: 81% of flood threat zones consist of rural area, 12% consists of un-built areas and 7% consists of water areas. Furthermore, the correlation of land subsidence to flood risk zone is divided into three levels of suitability with 74% in high class, 22% in medium class and 4% in low class. For the result of spatial correlation area between land subsidence and flood risk zone are 77% detected in rural area, 17% detected in un-built area and 6% detected in a water area. Whereas the research product is the geo-hazard maps in North Jakarta as the basis of the spatial correlation analysis between the land subsidence and flooding phenomena.double point.

78 FR 43904 - Final Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-22

...: Community map repository Community address Leon County, Texas, and Incorporated Areas Docket No.: FEMA-B... of Oakwood Town Hall, 135 East Broad Street, Oakwood, TX 75855. Unincorporated Areas of Leon County.... Leon County Judge's Office, 130 East St. Marys, Centerville, TX 75833. (Catalog of Federal Domestic...

A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2016-04-01

To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 1,398 subnational areas of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. An analysis of country-level population exposure showed that approximately 750 million people are affected from combined climate-hazards. Of the affected population 72% are in India, followed by 12% each from Bangladesh and Pakistan. Due in part to the economic importance of agriculture, it was found to be most vulnerable and exposed to climate extremes. An analysis of individual hazards indicates that floods and droughts) are the dominant hazards impacting agricultural areas followed by extreme rainfall, extreme temperature and sea-level rise. Based on this vulnerability assessment, all the regions of Bangladesh and the Indian States in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Orissa; Ampara, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Mannar and Batticaloa in Sri Lanka; Sind and Baluchistan in Pakistan; Central and East Nepal; and the transboundary river basins of Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra are among the most vulnerable regions in South Asia.

Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

2015-12-01

The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

A methodology for the assessment of flood hazards at the regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

In recent years, the frequency of water-related disasters has increased and recent flood events in Europe (e.g. 2002 in Central Europe, 2007 in UK, 2010 in Italy) caused physical-environmental and socio-economic damages. Specifically, floods are the most threatening water-related disaster that affects humans, their lives and properties. Within the KULTURisk project (FP7) a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology is proposed to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The method is based on the KULTURisk framework and allows the identification and prioritization of targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) and areas at risk from floods in the considered region by comparing the baseline scenario (i.e. current state) with alternative scenarios (i.e. where different structural and/or non-structural measures are planned). The RRA methodology is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The final aim of RRA is to help decision-makers in examining the possible environmental risks associated with uncertain future flood hazards and in identifying which prevention scenario could be the most suitable one. The RRA methodology employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA functions) in order to integrate stakeholder preferences and experts judgments into the analysis. Moreover, Geographic Information Systems (GISs) are used to manage, process, analyze, and map data to facilitate the analysis and the information sharing with different experts and stakeholders. In order to characterize flood risks, the proposed methodology integrates the output of hydrodynamic models with the analysis of site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope of the territory, land cover, population density, economic activities) of several case studies in order to develop risk maps that identify and prioritize relative hot-spot areas and targets at risk at the regional scale. The main outputs of the RRA are receptor-based maps of risks useful to communicate the potential implications of floods in non-monetary terms to stakeholders and administrations. These maps can be a basis for the management of flood risks as they can provide information about the indicative number of inhabitants, the type of economic activities, natural systems and cultural heritages potentially affected by flooding. Moreover, they can provide suitable information about flood risk in the considered area in order to define priorities for prevention measures, for land use planning and management. Finally, the outputs of the RRA methodology can be used as data input in the Socio- Economic Regional Risk Assessment methodology for the economic evaluation of different damages (e.g. tangible costs, intangible costs) and for the social assessment considering the benefits of the human dimension of vulnerability (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity). Within the KULTURisk project, the methodology has been applied and validated in several European case studies. Moreover, its generalization to address other types of natural hazards (e.g. earthquakes, forest fires) will be evaluated. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the KULTURisk project will be here presented and discussed.

A coupled hydrological-hydraulic flood inundation model calibrated using post-event measurements and integrated uncertainty analysis in a poorly gauged Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Colin, Francois

2017-04-01

Developing flood inundation maps of defined exceedance probabilities is required to provide information on the flood hazard and the associated risk. A methodology has been developed to model flood inundation in poorly gauged basins, where reliable information on the hydrological characteristics of floods are uncertain and partially captured by the traditional rain-gauge networks. Flood inundation is performed through coupling a hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) model (HEC-HMS) with a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS). The RR model is calibrated against the January 2013 flood event in the Awali River basin, Lebanon (300 km2), whose flood peak discharge was estimated by post-event measurements. The resulting flows of the RR model are defined as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model, which is run to generate the corresponding water surface profiles and calibrated against 20 post-event surveyed cross sections after the January-2013 flood event. An uncertainty analysis is performed to assess the results of the models. Consequently, the coupled flood inundation model is simulated with design storms and flood inundation maps are generated of defined exceedance probabilities. The peak discharges estimated by the simulated RR model were in close agreement with the results from different empirical and statistical methods. This methodology can be extended to other poorly gauged basins facing common stage-gauge failure or characterized by floods with a stage exceeding the gauge measurement level, or higher than that defined by the rating curve.

A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Keiler, Margreth; Zischg, Andreas

2016-04-01

The paper presents a nation-wide spatially explicit object-based assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria, including river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. The assessment was based on two different datasets, (a) hazard information providing input to the exposure of elements at risk, and (b) information on the building stock combined from different spatial data available on the national level. Hazard information was compiled from two different sources. For torrential flooding and snow avalanches available local-scale hazard maps were used, and for river flooding the results of the countrywide flood modelling eHORA were available. Information on the building stock contained information on the location and size of each building, as well as on the building category and the construction period. Additional information related to the individual floors, such as their height and net area, main purpose and configuration, was included for each property. Moreover, this dataset has an interface to the population register and allowed therefore retrieving the number of primary residents for each building. With the exception of sacral buildings, an economic module was used to compute the monetary value of buildings using (a) the information of the building register such as building type, number of storeys and utilisation, and (b) regionally averaged construction costs. It is shown that the repeatedly-stated assumption of increasing exposure due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be carefully evaluated by the local development of building stock. While some regions have shown a clearly above-average increase in assets, other regions were characterised by a below-average development. This mirrors the topography of the country, but also the different economic activities. While hotels and hostels are extraordinary prone to torrential flooding, commercial buildings as well as buildings used for recreation purpose are considerably exposed to river flooding. Residential buildings have shown an average exposure, compared to the number of buildings of this type in the overall building stock. In sum, around 5 % of all buildings are exposed to torrential flooding, and around 9 % to river flooding, with around 1 % of the buildings stock being multi-exposed. The temporal assessment of exposure has shown considerable differences in the dynamics of exposure to different hazard categories in comparison to the overall property stock. In conclusion, the presented object-based assessment is an important and suitable tool for nation-wide exposure assessment and may be used in operational risk management. Reference: Fuchs, S.; Keiler, M. & A. Zischg (2015): A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15 (9). p. 2127-2142

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Nacaome, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresch, David L.; Mastin, M.C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Nacaome that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Nacaome, Rio Grande, and Rio Guacirope. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Nacaome as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Nacaome, Rio Grande, and Rio Guacirope at Nacaome were computed using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and ground surveys at two bridges. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Nacaome at Nacaome, 5,040 cubic meters per second, was computed as the drainage-area-adjusted weighted average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Nacaome en Las Mercedes, located about 13 kilometers upstream from Nacaome. One of the discharges, 4,549 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 16 years of peak-discharge record for the gage, and the other, 1,922 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges is 3,770 cubic meters per second. The 50-year-flood discharges for Rio Grande, 3,890 cubic meters per second, and Rio Guacirope, 1,080 cubic meters per second, were also computed by adjusting the weighted-average 50-year-flood discharge for the Rio Nacaome en Las Mercedes gaging station for the difference in drainage areas between the gage and these river reaches.

Volcanic flood simulation of magma effusion using FLO-2D for drainage of a caldera lake at the Mt. Baekdusan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Khil-Ha; Kim, Sung-Wook; Kim, Sang-Hyun

2014-05-01

Many volcanic craters and calderas are filled with large amounts of water that can pose significant flood hazards to downstream communities due to their high elevation and the potential for catastrophic releases of water. Recent reports pointed out the Baekdusan volcano that is located between the border of China and North Korea as a potential active volcano. Since Millennium Eruption around 1000 AD, smaller eruptions have occurred at roughly 100-year intervals, with the last one in 1903. Sudden release of huge volume of water stored in temporarily elevated caldera lakes are a recurrent feature of volcanic environments, due to the case with which outlet channels are blocked by and re-cut through, unwelded pyroclastic deposits. The volcano is showing signs of waking from a century-long slumber recently. Volcanic floods, including breakouts from volcanic lakes, can affect communities beyond the areas immediately affected by a volcanic eruption and cause significant hydrological hazards because floods from lake-filled calderas may be particularly large and high. Although a number of case studies have been presented in the literature, investigation of the underlying physical processes is required as well as a method for interpreting the process of the rapid release of water stored in a caldera lake. The development of various forecasting techniques to prevent and minimize economic and social damage is in urgent need. This study focuses on constructing a flood hazard map triggered by the magma effusion in the Baekdusan volcano. A physically-based uplift model was developed to compute the amount of water and time to peak flow. The ordinary differential equation was numerically solved using the finite difference method and Newton-Raphson iteration method was used to solve nonlinear equation. The magma effusion rate into the caldera lake is followed by examples at other volcanic activities. As a result, the hydrograph serves as an upper boundary condition when hydrodynamic model, called FLO-2D runs to simulate channel routing downstream to give the maximum water level. Once probable inundation areas are identified by the huge volume of water in the caldera lake, the unique geography, and the limited control capability, a potential hazard assessment can be represented. The study will contribute to build a geohazard map for the decision-makers and practitioners. Keywords: Volcanic flood, Caldera lake, Hazard assessment, Magma effusion Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-2] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea.

Preparing our Workforce: Discussing Traditional and Non-Traditional Geoscience Careers - Natural hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaldi, A.

2013-12-01

Many young people interested in science think that their only professional opportunities lie within academia or in some government sponsored project. The private sector is often dismissed as not providing the opportunities to a natural scientist or at least an opportunity where they can make a difference. The threat of natural disasters and in the rise of economic losses caused by these disasters as well as the potential problems brought about by climate change have opened up a number of opportunities for the natural scientist. The insurance industry and reinsurance industry is one industry looking for natural scientists and structural engineers. The insurance industry's largest singular threat comes from the risks caused by geological or atmospheric hazards. Over the last decade more and more scientists have used their seismological, hydrological, or weather related knowledge to develop new tools and technology to identify and estimate the economic and social impact due to these natural events. The insurance and reinsurance industry were one of the first industries to call attention to the risk posed by climate change. Our goal is to reduce losses and the cost to insure these losses. Our work starts with the hazard. Hazard identification is one of the best methods for reducing loss nevertheless not all areas of the world have the ability to identify these hazards. Swiss Re transforms science into application. As an example most of the world does not have flood maps to help consumers and policymakers decide which locations are highly exposed and which are not. Swiss Re used a decade of learning to develop a global set of flood maps that identifies the 100 year and 500 year flood zones. To an emerging market these maps will add them in their zoning and building considerations. Academia is a noble profession and the work completed within the university walls is the basis for what we do. Nevertheless the private sector has the ability to use this knowledge and apply it to benefit others. Our understanding of risk and its associated costs has helped many small and large communities develop their own sustainable plan for the future

A high-resolution land-use map; Nogales, Sonora, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura M.; Villarreal, Miguel L.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Gil Anaya, Claudia Z.; Diaz Arcos, Israel; Gray, Floyd

2010-01-01

The cities of Nogales, Sonora, and Nogales, Arizona, are located in the Ambos Nogales Watershed, a topographically irregular bowl-shaped area with a northward gradient. Throughout history, residents in both cities have been affected by flooding. Currently, the primary method for regulating this runoff is to build a series of detention basins in Nogales, Sonora. Additionally, the municipality also is considering land-use planning to help mitigate flooding. This paper describes the production of a 10-meter resolution land-use map, derived from 2008 aerial photos of the Nogales, Sonora Watershed for modeling impacts of the detention basin construction and in support of an ?Early Warning Hazard System? for the region.

Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Larreynaga, J.; González, M.; Castro, M.; Gavidia, F.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; González-Riancho, P.; Carreño, E.

2013-05-01

El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has approximately a length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there have been 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and hundreds of victims. The hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached from both Probabilistic and Deterministic Methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold, on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps and from the elevation in the near-shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differences - finite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the Linear and Non-linear Shallow Water Equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake generated tsunami scenarios. In the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results obtained with the high resolution numerical modelling, being a good and fast approximation to obtain preliminary tsunami hazard estimations. In Acajutla and La Libertad, both important tourism centres being actively developed, flooding depths between 2 and 4 m are frequent, accompanied with high and very high person instability hazard. Inside the Gulf of Fonseca the impact of the waves is almost negligible.

Tsunami hazard assessment in El Salvador, Central America, from seismic sources through flooding numerical models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Álvarez-Gómez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, O. Q.; Larreynaga, J.; González, M.; Castro, M.; Gavidia, F.; Aguirre-Ayerbe, I.; González-Riancho, P.; Carreño, E.

2013-11-01

El Salvador is the smallest and most densely populated country in Central America; its coast has an approximate length of 320 km, 29 municipalities and more than 700 000 inhabitants. In El Salvador there were 15 recorded tsunamis between 1859 and 2012, 3 of them causing damages and resulting in hundreds of victims. Hazard assessment is commonly based on propagation numerical models for earthquake-generated tsunamis and can be approached through both probabilistic and deterministic methods. A deterministic approximation has been applied in this study as it provides essential information for coastal planning and management. The objective of the research was twofold: on the one hand the characterization of the threat over the entire coast of El Salvador, and on the other the computation of flooding maps for the three main localities of the Salvadorian coast. For the latter we developed high-resolution flooding models. For the former, due to the extension of the coastal area, we computed maximum elevation maps, and from the elevation in the near shore we computed an estimation of the run-up and the flooded area using empirical relations. We have considered local sources located in the Middle America Trench, characterized seismotectonically, and distant sources in the rest of Pacific Basin, using historical and recent earthquakes and tsunamis. We used a hybrid finite differences-finite volumes numerical model in this work, based on the linear and non-linear shallow water equations, to simulate a total of 24 earthquake-generated tsunami scenarios. Our results show that at the western Salvadorian coast, run-up values higher than 5 m are common, while in the eastern area, approximately from La Libertad to the Gulf of Fonseca, the run-up values are lower. The more exposed areas to flooding are the lowlands in the Lempa River delta and the Barra de Santiago Western Plains. The results of the empirical approximation used for the whole country are similar to the results obtained with the high-resolution numerical modelling, being a good and fast approximation to obtain preliminary tsunami hazard estimations. In Acajutla and La Libertad, both important tourism centres being actively developed, flooding depths between 2 and 4 m are frequent, accompanied with high and very high person instability hazard. Inside the Gulf of Fonseca the impact of the waves is almost negligible.

Using open source data for flood risk mapping and management in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitley, Alison; Malloy, James; Chirouze, Manuel

2013-04-01

Whitley, A., Malloy, J. and Chirouze, M. Worldwide the frequency and severity of major natural disasters, particularly flooding, has increased. Concurrently, countries such as Brazil are experiencing rapid socio-economic development with growing and increasingly concentrated populations, particularly in urban areas. Hence, it is unsurprising that Brazil has experienced a number of major floods in the past 30 years such as the January 2011 floods which killed 900 people and resulted in significant economic losses of approximately 1 billion US dollars. Understanding, mitigating against and even preventing flood risk is high priority. There is a demand for flood models in many developing economies worldwide for a range of uses including risk management, emergency planning and provision of insurance solutions. However, developing them can be expensive. With an increasing supply of freely-available, open source data, the costs can be significantly reduced, making the tools required for natural hazard risk assessment more accessible. By presenting a flood model developed for eight urban areas of Brazil as part of a collaboration between JBA Risk Management and Guy Carpenter, we explore the value of open source data and demonstrate its usability in a business context within the insurance industry. We begin by detailing the open source data available and compare its suitability to commercially-available equivalents for datasets including digital terrain models and river gauge records. We present flood simulation outputs in order to demonstrate the impact of the choice of dataset on the results obtained and its use in a business context. Via use of the 2D hydraulic model JFlow+, our examples also show how advanced modelling techniques can be used on relatively crude datasets to obtain robust and good quality results. In combination with accessible, standard specification GPU technology and open source data, use of JFlow+ has enabled us to produce large-scale hazard maps suitable for business use and emergency planning such as those we show for Brazil.

12 CFR 572.6 - Required use of standard flood hazard determination form.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Required use of standard flood hazard... TREASURY LOANS IN AREAS HAVING SPECIAL FLOOD HAZARDS § 572.6 Required use of standard flood hazard determination form. (a) Use of form. A savings association shall use the standard flood hazard determination...

78 FR 14584 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-06

...; Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-B-1296] Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: Comments are requested on proposed flood hazard..., Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) boundary or zone designation, or regulatory floodway on the Flood...

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for flood risk: the case of Sihl river in Zurich

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, Paolo; Bullo, Martina; Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex; Semenzin, Elena; Buchecker, Matthias; Marcomini, Antonio

2014-05-01

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it is necessary to develop effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the risk of floods. In light of the recent European Flood Directive (FD), the KULTURisk-FP7 Project developed a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology for assessing the risk imposed by floods events. The KULTURisk RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It is a flexible that can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale) that integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamics models (hazard) with sito-specific geophysical and socio-economic indicators (exposure and vulnerability factors such as land cover, slope, soil permeability, population density, economic activities, etc.). The main outputs of the methodology are GIS-based risk maps that identify and prioritize relative hot-spot areas and targets at risk (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) in the considered region by comparing the baseline scenario with alternative scenarios, where different structural and/or non-structural mitigation measures are planned. Risk maps, along with related statistics, provide crucial information about flood risk pattern, and allow the development of relevant and strategic mitigation and prevention measures to minimizing flood risk in urban areas. The present study applied and validated the KULTURisk RRA methodology to the Sihl river case study in Zurich (Switzerland). Through a tuning process of the methodology to the site-specific context and features, flood related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying on the Sihl river valley, which represents a typical case of river flooding in urban area. The total risk maps obtained under a 300 years return period scenario (selected as the reference one) have highlighted that the area is associated with the lower class of risk. Moreover, the relative risk is higher in Zurich city centre, in the few residential areas around the city centre and within the districts that rely just beside to the Sihl river course.

78 FR 20343 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-04

... panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent sciences established to review..., Indiana, and Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6674..., Leavenworth, IN 47137. Town of Marengo Town Hall, 117 East Water Street, Marengo, IN 47140. Town of Milltown...

77 FR 58560 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-21

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent.../dnr/water/6497.htm City of Tipton Tipton County Courthouse, 101 East Jefferson Street, Tipton, IN... Incorporated Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6648.htm City of...

Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Oliver E. J.; Bates, Paul D.; Smith, Andrew M.; Sampson, Christopher C.; Johnson, Kris A.; Fargione, Joseph; Morefield, Philip

2018-03-01

Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30 m resolution model of the entire conterminous US with a 2D representation of flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard, which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. These flood depths are combined with exposure datasets of commensurate resolution to calculate current and future flood risk. Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6-3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps). We find that population and GDP growth alone are expected to lead to significant future increases in exposure, and this change may be exacerbated in the future by climate change.

12 CFR 339.6 - Required use of standard flood hazard determination form.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Required use of standard flood hazard... STATEMENTS OF GENERAL POLICY LOANS IN AREAS HAVING SPECIAL FLOOD HAZARDS § 339.6 Required use of standard flood hazard determination form. (a) Use of form. A bank shall use the standard flood hazard...

12 CFR 760.6 - Required use of standard flood hazard determination form.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Required use of standard flood hazard... AFFECTING CREDIT UNIONS LOANS IN AREAS HAVING SPECIAL FLOOD HAZARDS § 760.6 Required use of standard flood hazard determination form. (a) Use of form. A credit union shall use the standard flood hazard...

Hazards mapping using local and scientific knowledge. A case in rural Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solis, B.; Bocco, G.

2016-12-01

Natural hazards in rural areas in developing countries usually affect poor peasants and their infrastructure. This poses a problem of social vulnerability that coupled to the risk may cause severe hazards. Research oriented to prevention and adaptation is crucial. Other studies have proved that local knowledge and peasant's perception on hazards is a valuable tool to tackle prevention and mitigation. In the valley of Huahua river, at the Pacific coast of Mexico, landslides have directly affected rural roads hampering communication between villages. In addition some of their deposits have changed the morphology of river channels, resulting in flooding and avalanches threatening rural life and assets. At least 21 landslides are still active in the area. In this research the leading questions are: how do people perceive landslides hazard? What is the knowledge possessed by villagers facing such hazards? Could scientific and local knowledge be coupled in a hybrid format to formulate an adequate hazards map? The investigation used ethnographic techniques (participant observation, semi-structured and structured interviews, and participatory mapping) and multivariate statistical approaches based on empirical data. We will present the preliminary results, based principally on interview data and a first hazard zoning of the lower valley of the Huahua River. Our results suggest that the approach can be used in this and similar areas in developing countries.

A retrospective analysis of the flash flood in Braunsbach on May 29th, 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laudan, Jonas; Öztürk, Ugur; Sieg, Tobias; Wendi, Dadiyorto; Riemer, Adrian; Agarwal, Ankit; Rözer, Viktor; Korup, Oliver; Thieken, Annegret; Vogel, Kristin

2017-04-01

At the end of May and early June 2016 several rainstorms caused severe surface water flooding and flash floods, partly accompanied by mud and debris flows, in Central Europe, and especially in southern Germany. On the evening of May 29, 2016, a flood outburst with massive amounts of rubble and muddy sediments hit the town of Braunsbach, Baden-Württemberg, damaging numerous buildings, cars, and town facilities. The DFG Graduate School "Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" (NatRiskChange) at the University of Potsdam investigated the Braunsbach "flash flood" as an exemplary catastrophic event triggered by severe weather. Bringing together scientists from the fields of meteorology, hydrology, geomorphology, flood risk, natural hazards, and mathematics the research team was especially interested in the interplay of causes and triggers leading to the event. Accordingly, the team focused on the entire process chain from heavy precipitation to runoff and flood generation and the geomorphic aftermath. The steep slopes in the catchment area promote the episodic supply of gravel, debris and organic material, which remains stored for decades to millennia, only to be remobilized during rare and extreme runoff events such as in 2016. Field mapping revealed at least 48 landslides as sources of high sediment loads. Nonetheless, numerous scars of river erosion along the tributary creeks into Braunsbach indicate that most of the material carried by the flash flood was due to bank undercutting. The flow also entrained more rubble, trees, cars, and other anthropogenic sediments further downstream. This enhanced solids load increased the physical impact, and hence damage, to buildings. Local effects of flow depth, flow velocity, and exposition of buildings into the advancing non-steady and non-uniform flow caused the damage to exceed that of a clearwater flood with comparable return period. We conclude that, to meaningfully inform the implementation of precautionary measures, a quantitative hazard assessment of similarly extreme flash floods may include more explicitly the effects of high sediment loads and flow-roughness elements.

Swiss Re Global Flood Hazard Zones: Know your flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinukollu, R. K.; Castaldi, A.; Mehlhorn, J.

2012-12-01

Floods, among all natural disasters, have a great damage potential. On a global basis, there is strong evidence of increase in the number of people affected and economic losses due to floods. For example, global insured flood losses have increased by 12% every year since 1970 and this is expected to further increase with growing exposure in the high risk areas close to rivers and coastlines. Recently, the insurance industry has been surprised by the large extent of losses, because most countries lack reliable hazard information. One example has been the 2011 Thailand floods where millions of people were affected and the total economic losses were 30 billion USD. In order to assess the flood risk across different regions and countries, the flood team at Swiss Re based on a Geomorphologic Regression approach, developed in house and patented, produced global maps of flood zones. Input data for the study was obtained from NASA's Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) elevation data, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) and HydroSHEDS. The underlying assumptions of the approach are that naturally flowing rivers shape their channel and flood plain according to basin inherent forces and characteristics and that the flood water extent strongly depends on the shape of the flood plain. On the basis of the catchment characteristics, the model finally calculates the probability of a location to be flooded or not for a defined return period, which in the current study was set to 100 years. The data is produced at a 90-m resolution for latitudes 60S to 60N. This global product is now used in the insurance industry to inspect, inform and/or insure the flood risk across the world.

A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, S.; Keiler, M.; Zischg, A.

2015-09-01

The paper presents a nation-wide spatially explicit object-based assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria, including river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. The assessment was based on two different data sets, (a) hazard information providing input to the exposure of elements at risk, and (b) information on the building stock combined from different spatial data available on the national level. Hazard information was compiled from two different sources. For torrential flooding and snow avalanches available local-scale hazard maps were used, and for river flooding the results of the countrywide flood modelling eHORA were available. Information on the building stock contained information on the location and size of each building, as well as on the building category and the construction period. Additional information related to the individual floors, such as their height and net area, main purpose and configuration, was included for each property. Moreover, this data set has an interface to the population register and allowed, therefore, for retrieving the number of primary residents for each building. With the exception of sacral buildings, an economic module was used to compute the monetary value of buildings using (a) the information of the building register such as building type, number of storeys and utilisation, and (b) regionally averaged construction costs. It is shown that the repeatedly stated assumption of increasing exposure due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be carefully evaluated by the local development of building stock. While some regions have shown a clearly above-average increase in assets, other regions were characterised by a below-average development. This mirrors the topography of the country, but also the different economic activities. While hotels and hostels are extraordinarily prone to torrential flooding, commercial buildings as well as buildings used for recreational purposes are considerably exposed to river flooding. Residential buildings have shown an average exposure, compared to the number of buildings of this type in the overall building stock. In sum, around 5 % of all buildings are exposed to torrential flooding, and around 9 % to river flooding, with around 1 % of the buildings stock being multi-exposed. The temporal assessment of exposure has shown considerable differences in the dynamics of exposure to different hazard categories in comparison to the overall property stock. In conclusion, the presented object-based assessment is an important and suitable tool for nation-wide exposure assessment and may be used in operational risk management.

44 CFR 65.15 - List of communities submitting new technical data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false List of communities... Program IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.15 List of communities submitting new technical data. This section provides a cumulative list of communities where modifications of the base flood...

78 FR 28888 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-16

... resolution process. SRPs are independent panels of experts in hydrology, hydraulics, and other pertinent.../dnr/water/6670.htm City of Oakland City City Hall, 210 East Washington Street, Oakland City, IN 47660... Areas Maps Available for Inspection Online at: http://www.in.gov/dnr/water/6472.htm City of Martinsville...

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2014-12-01

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazards has increased, and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade, causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing in frequency as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (elements potentially at risk in flood-prone area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the undeniable effect of climate change is projected to strongly modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events at the local, regional and global scale. Within this context, the need for developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow one to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threatens different relevant receptors becomes urgent. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). This paper is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to appraise the risk posed by floods from a physical-environmental perspective. The methodology, developed within the recently completed FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. plain rivers, mountain torrents, urban and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from catchment to the urban scale). The FD compliant KR-RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamic models with site-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope, land cover, population density, economic activities etc.) to develop tailored risk indexes and GIS-based maps for each of the selected receptors (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritage) in the considered region. It further compares the baseline scenario with alternative scenarios, where different structural and/or non-structural mitigation measures are planned and eventually implemented. As demonstrated in the companion paper (Part 2, Ronco et al., 2014), risk maps, along with related statistics, allow one to identify and classify, on a relative scale, areas at risk which are more likely to be affected by floods and support the development of strategic adaptation and prevention measures to minimizing flood impacts. In addition, the outcomes of the RRA can be eventually used for a further socio-economic assessment, considering the tangible and intangible costs as well as the human dimension of vulnerability.

An investigation of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) structure influence on flood modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahid; Nurrohman, A. W.; Hadi, M. P.

2018-04-01

Flood is one of the natural calamities that cause huge losses and damages. Flood hazard zonation has been widely produced to face the impact of the disaster. DEM as the primary data to construct the earth surface has been developed from rough to fine resolution. Aster GDEM v.2 within 1arc spatial resolution has an ability to derived DEM and TIN data as bases river geometrics data. Maximum daily peak discharges used to calculate flood peak discharge. Furthermore, steady flow analysis has been used to produce flood inundation model based on four scenarios with return periods 5yr, 10yr, 50yr, and 100yr. The model results have been validated using UAV flood map in 2016 by means of pixel by pixel operation and the result shows that the vertical variance between grid DEM and TIN data about 0.3 m.

Decision Support for Emergency Operations Centers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harvey, Craig; Lawhead, Joel; Watts, Zack

2005-01-01

The Flood Disaster Mitigation Decision Support System (DSS) is a computerized information system that allows regional emergency-operations government officials to make decisions regarding the dispatch of resources in response to flooding. The DSS implements a real-time model of inundation utilizing recently acquired lidar elevation data as well as real-time data from flood gauges, and other instruments within and upstream of an area that is or could become flooded. The DSS information is updated as new data become available. The model generates realtime maps of flooded areas and predicts flood crests at specified locations. The inundation maps are overlaid with information on population densities, property values, hazardous materials, evacuation routes, official contact information, and other information needed for emergency response. The program maintains a database and a Web portal through which real-time data from instrumentation are gathered into the database. Also included in the database is a geographic information system, from which the program obtains the overlay data for areas of interest as needed. The portal makes some portions of the database accessible to the public. Access to other portions of the database is restricted to government officials according to various levels of authorization. The Flood Disaster Mitigation DSS has been integrated into a larger DSS named REACT (Real-time Emergency Action Coordination Tool), which also provides emergency operations managers with data for any type of impact area such as floods, fires, bomb

KULTURisk regional risk assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, P.; Bullo, M.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Olschewski, R.; Zappa, M.; Marcomini, A.

2015-03-01

The aim of this paper is the application of the KULTURisk regional risk assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1, Ronco et al., 2014), to the Sihl River basin, in northern Switzerland. Flood-related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying on the Sihl River valley including Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in an urban area, by calibrating the methodology to the site-specific context and features. Risk maps and statistics have been developed using a 300-year return period scenario for six relevant targets exposed to flood risk: people; economic activities: buildings, infrastructure and agriculture; natural and semi-natural systems; and cultural heritage. Finally, the total risk index map has been produced to visualize the spatial pattern of flood risk within the target area and, therefore, to identify and rank areas and hotspots at risk by means of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools. Through a tailored participatory approach, risk maps supplement the consideration of technical experts with the (essential) point of view of relevant stakeholders for the appraisal of the specific scores weighting for the different receptor-relative risks. The total risk maps obtained for the Sihl River case study are associated with the lower classes of risk. In general, higher (relative) risk scores are spatially concentrated in the deeply urbanized city centre and areas that lie just above to river course. Here, predicted injuries and potential fatalities are mainly due to high population density and to the presence of vulnerable people; flooded buildings are mainly classified as continuous and discontinuous urban fabric; flooded roads, pathways and railways, most of them in regards to the Zurich central station (Hauptbahnhof) are at high risk of inundation, causing severe indirect damage. Moreover, the risk pattern for agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems and cultural heritage is relatively less important mainly because the scattered presence of these assets. Finally, the application of the KR-RRA methodology to the Sihl River case study, as well as to several other sites across Europe (not presented here), has demonstrated its flexibility and the possible adaptation of it to different geographical and socioeconomic contexts, depending on data availability and particulars of the sites, and for other (hazard) scenarios.

Using remotely sensed data and stochastic models to simulate realistic flood hazard footprints across the continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Sampson, C. C.; Smith, A.; Wing, O.; Neal, J. C.

2017-12-01

Remotely sensed data has transformed the field of large scale hydraulic modelling. New digital elevation, hydrography and river width data has allowed such models to be created for the first time, and remotely sensed observations of water height, slope and water extent has allowed them to be calibrated and tested. As a result, we are now able to conduct flood risk analyses at national, continental or even global scales. However, continental scale analyses have significant additional complexity compared to typical flood risk modelling approaches. Traditional flood risk assessment uses frequency curves to define the magnitude of extreme flows at gauging stations. The flow values for given design events, such as the 1 in 100 year return period flow, are then used to drive hydraulic models in order to produce maps of flood hazard. Such an approach works well for single gauge locations and local models because over relatively short river reaches (say 10-60km) one can assume that the return period of an event does not vary. At regional to national scales and across multiple river catchments this assumption breaks down, and for a given flood event the return period will be different at different gauging stations, a pattern known as the event `footprint'. Despite this, many national scale risk analyses still use `constant in space' return period hazard layers (e.g. the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas) in their calculations. Such an approach can estimate potential exposure, but will over-estimate risk and cannot determine likely flood losses over a whole region or country. We address this problem by using a stochastic model to simulate many realistic extreme event footprints based on observed gauged flows and the statistics of gauge to gauge correlations. We take the entire USGS gauge data catalogue for sites with > 45 years of record and use a conditional approach for multivariate extreme values to generate sets of flood events with realistic return period variation in space. We undertake a number of quality checks of the stochastic model and compare real and simulated footprints to show that the method is able to re-create realistic patterns even at continental scales where there is large variation in flood generating mechanisms. We then show how these patterns can be used to drive a large scale 2D hydraulic to predict regional scale flooding.

Flood susceptibility mapping using novel ensembles of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system and metaheuristic algorithms.

PubMed

Razavi Termeh, Seyed Vahid; Kornejady, Aiding; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Keesstra, Saskia

2018-02-15

Flood is one of the most destructive natural disasters which cause great financial and life losses per year. Therefore, producing susceptibility maps for flood management are necessary in order to reduce its harmful effects. The aim of the present study is to map flood hazard over the Jahrom Township in Fars Province using a combination of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) with different metaheuristics algorithms such as ant colony optimization (ACO), genetic algorithm (GA), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) and comparing their accuracy. A total number of 53 flood locations areas were identified, 35 locations of which were randomly selected in order to model flood susceptibility and the remaining 16 locations were used to validate the models. Learning vector quantization (LVQ), as one of the supervised neural network methods, was employed in order to estimate factors' importance. Nine flood conditioning factors namely: slope degree, plan curvature, altitude, topographic wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), distance from river, land use/land cover, rainfall, and lithology were selected and the corresponding maps were prepared in ArcGIS. The frequency ratio (FR) model was used to assign weights to each class within particular controlling factor, then the weights was transferred into MATLAB software for further analyses and to combine with metaheuristic models. The ANFIS-PSO was found to be the most practical model in term of producing the highly focused flood susceptibility map with lesser spatial distribution related to highly susceptible classes. The chi-square result attests the same, where the ANFIS-PSO had the highest spatial differentiation within flood susceptibility classes over the study area. The area under the curve (AUC) obtained from ROC curve indicated the accuracy of 91.4%, 91.8%, 92.6% and 94.5% for the respective models of FR, ANFIS-ACO, ANFIS-GA, and ANFIS-PSO ensembles. So, the ensemble of ANFIS-PSO was introduced as the premier model in the study area. Furthermore, LVQ results revealed that slope degree, rainfall, and altitude were the most effective factors. As regards the premier model, a total area of 44.74% was recognized as highly susceptible to flooding. The results of this study can be used as a platform for better land use planning in order to manage the highly susceptible zones to flooding and reduce the anticipated losses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coastal flooding hazard assessment on potentially vulnerable coastal sectors at Varna regional coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftimova, Petya; Valchev, Nikolay; Andreeva, Nataliya

2017-04-01

Storm induced flooding is one of the most significant threats that the coastal communities face. In the light of the climate change it is expected to gain even more importance. Therefore, the adequate assessment of this hazard could increase the capability of mitigation of environmental, social, and economic impacts. The study was accomplished in the frames of the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) developed within the FP7 RISC-KIT Project (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolkit). The hazard assessment was applied on three potentially vulnerable coastal sectors located at the regional coast of Varna, Bulgarian Black Sea coast. The potential "hotspot" candidates were selected during the initial phase of CRAF which evaluated the coastal risks at regional level. The area of interest comprises different coastal types - from natural beaches and rocky cliffs to man modified environments presented by coastal and port defense structures such as the Varna Port breakwater, groynes, jetties and beaches formed by the presence of coastal structures. The assessment of coastal flooding was done using combination of models -XBeach model and LISFLOOD inundation model applied consecutively. The XBeach model was employed to calculate the hazard intensities at the coast up to the berm crest, while LISFLOOD model was used to calculate the intensity and extent of flooding in the hinterland. At the first stage, 75 extreme storm events were simulated using XBeach model run in "non-hydrostatic" mode to obtain series of flood depth, depth-velocity and overtopping discharges at the predefined coastal cross-shore transects. Extreme value analysis was applied to the calculated hazard parameters series in order to determine their probability distribution functions. This is so called response approach, which is focused on the onshore impact rather than on the deep water boundary conditions. It allows calculation of the hazard extremes probability distribution induced by a variety of combinations of waves and surges. The considered return periods were 20, 50 and 100 years. Subsequently, the overtopping volumes corresponding to preferred return periods were fed into LISFLOOD model to calculate the intensity and extent of the hinterland flooding. For the beaches with fast-rising slopes backed by cliffs a combination of XBeach and LISFLOOD output was applied in order to properly map the flood depth and depth-velocity spatial distribution.

12 CFR 614.4940 - Required use of standard flood hazard determination form.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Required use of standard flood hazard... LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS Flood Insurance Requirements § 614.4940 Required use of standard flood hazard determination form. (a) Use of form. System institutions must use the standard flood hazard...

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for La Lima, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of La Lima that would be inundated by Rio Chamelecon with a discharge of 500 cubic meters per second, the approximate capacity of the river channel through the city of La Lima. The 50-year flood (2,400 cubic meters per second), the original design flow to be mapped, would inundate the entire area surveyed for this municipality. Because water-surface elevations of the 50-year flood could not be mapped properly without substantially expanding the area of the survey, the available data were used instead to estimate the channel capacity of Rio Chamelecon in La Lima by trial-and-error runs of different flows in a numerical model and to estimate the increase in height of levees needed to contain flows of 1,000 and 2,400 cubic meters per second. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of La Lima as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for various discharges on Rio Chamelecon at La Lima were determined using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and ground surveys at three bridges. Top-of-levee or top-of-channel-bank elevations and locations at the cross sections were critical to estimating the channel capacity of Rio Chamelecon. These elevations and locations are provided along with the water-surface elevations for the 500-cubic-meter-per-second flow of Rio Chamelecon. Also, water-surface elevations of the 1,000 and 2,400 cubic-meter-per-second flows are provided, assuming that the existing levees are raised to contained the flows.

Rapid Offline-Online Post-Disaster Landslide Mapping Tool: A case study from Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Derron, Marc-Henri; Devkota, Sanjaya

2016-04-01

One of the crucial components of post disaster management is the efficient mapping of impacted areas. Here we present a tool designed to map landslides and affected objects after the earthquakes of 2015 in Nepal as well as for intense rainfall impact. Because internet is not available in many rural areas of Nepal, we developed an offline-online prototype based on Open-Source WebGIS technologies to make data on hazard impacts, including damaged infrastructure, landslides or flooding events available to authorities and the general public. This mobile application was designed as a low-cost, rapid and participatory method for recording impacts from hazard events. It is possible to record such events offline and upload them through a server, where internet connection is available. This application allows user authentication, image capturing, and information collation such as geolocation, event description, interactive mapping and finally storing all the data in the server for further analysis and visualisation. This application can be accessed by a mobile phone (Android) or a tablet as a hybrid version for both offline and online versions. The offline version has an interactive-offline map function which allows users to upload satellites image in order to improve ground truthing interpretation. After geolocation, the user can start mapping and then save recorded data into Geojson-TXT files that can be easily uploaded to the server whenever internet is available. This prototype was tested specifically for a rapid assessment of landslides and relevant land use characteristics such as roads, forest area, rivers in the Phewa Lake watershed near Pokhara, Nepal where a large number landslides were activated or reactivated after the 2015 monsoon season. More than 60 landslides were recorded during two days of field trip. Besides, it is possible to use this application for any other kind of hazard event like flood, avalanche, etc. Keywords: Offline, Online, Open source, WebGIS, Android, Post-Disaster, Landslide mapping

Dam break analysis and flood inundation map of Krisak dam for emergency action plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juliastuti, Setyandito, Oki

2017-11-01

The Indonesian Regulation which refers to the ICOLD Regulation (International Committee on Large Dam required have the Emergency Action Plan (EAP) guidelines because of the dams have potential failure. In EAP guidelines there is a management of evacuation where the determination of the inundation map based on flood modeling. The purpose of the EAP is to minimize the risk of loss of life and property in downstream which caused by dam failure. This paper will describe about develop flood modeling and inundation map in Krisak dam using numerical methods through dam break analysis (DBA) using hydraulic model Zhong Xing HY-21. The approaches of dam failure simulation are overtopping and piping. Overtopping simulation based on quadrangular, triangular and trapezium fracture. Piping simulation based on cracks of orifice. Using results of DBA, hazard classification of Krisak dam is very high. The nearest village affected dam failure is Singodutan village (distance is 1.45 kilometer from dam) with inundation depth is 1.85 meter. This result can be used by stakeholders such as emergency responders and the community at risk in formulating evacuation procedure.

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 1: Physical-environmental assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, P.; Gallina, V.; Torresan, S.; Zabeo, A.; Semenzin, E.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2014-07-01

In recent years, the frequency of catastrophes induced by natural hazard has increased and flood events in particular have been recognized as one of the most threatening water-related disasters. Severe floods have occurred in Europe over the last decade causing loss of life, displacement of people and heavy economic losses. Flood disasters are growing as a consequence of many factors, both climatic and non-climatic. Indeed, the current increase of water-related disasters can be mainly attributed to the increase of exposure (increase elements potentially at risk in floodplains area) and vulnerability (i.e. economic, social, geographic, cultural, and physical/environmental characteristics of the exposure). Besides these factors, the strong effect of climate change is projected to radically modify the usual pattern of the hydrological cycle by intensifying the frequency and severity of flood events both at local, regional and global scale. Within this context, it becomes urgent and dramatically relevant the need of promoting and developing effective and pro-active strategies, tools and actions which allow to assess and (possibly) to reduce the flood risks that threats different relevant receptors. Several methodologies to assess the risk posed by water-related natural hazards have been proposed so far, but very few of them can be adopted to implement the last European Flood Directive (FD). The present study is intended to introduce and present a state-of-the-art Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to evaluate the benefits of risk prevention in terms of reduced environmental risks due to floods. The methodology, developed within the recently phased out FP7-KULTURisk Project (Knowledge-based approach to develop a cULTUre of Risk prevention - KR) is flexible and can be adapted to different case studies (i.e. large rivers, alpine/mountain catchments, urban areas and coastal areas) and spatial scales (i.e. from the large river to the urban scale). The FD compliant KR-RRA methodology is based on the concept of risk being function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. It integrates the outputs of various hydrodynamics models (hazard) with sito-specific bio-geophysical and socio-economic indicators (e.g. slope, land cover, population density, economic activities) to develop tailored risk indexes and GIS-based maps for each of the selected targets (i.e. people, buildings, infrastructures, agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems, cultural heritages) in the considered region, by comparing the baseline scenario with alternative scenarios, where different structural and/or non-structural mitigation measures are planned. As demonstrated in the companion paper (Part 2, Ronco et al., 2014), risk maps, along with related statistics, allow to identify and prioritize relative hotspots and targets which are more likely to be affected by flood and support the development of relevant and strategic adaptation and prevention measures to minimizing flood impacts. Moreover, the outputs of the RRA methodology can be used for the economic evaluation of different damages (e.g. tangible costs, intangible costs) and for the social assessment considering the benefits of the human dimension of vulnerability (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity).

Improving flood risk mapping in Italy: the FloodRisk open-source software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, Raffaele; Mancusi, Leonardo; Craciun, Iulia; Sole, Aurelia; Ozunu, Alexandru

2017-04-01

Time and again, floods around the world illustrate the devastating impact they can have on societies. Furthermore, the expectation that the flood damages can increase over time with climate, land-use change and social growth in flood prone-areas has raised the public and other stakeholders' (governments, international organization, re-insurance companies and emergency responders) awareness for the need to manage risks in order to mitigate their causes and consequences. In this light, the choice of appropriate measures, the assessment of the costs and effects of such measures, and their prioritization are crucial for decision makers. As a result, a priori flood risk assessment has become a key part of flood management practices with the aim of minimizing the total costs related to the risk management cycle. In this context, The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the delineation of flood risk maps on the bases of most appropriate and advanced tools, with particular attention on limiting required economic efforts. The main aim of these risk maps is to provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs) by considering both costs and benefits of alternatives and results from consultation with all interested parties. In this context, this research project developed a free and open-source (FOSS) GIS software, called FloodRisk, to operatively support stakeholders in their compliance with the FRMPs. FloodRisk aims to facilitate the development of risk maps and the evaluation and management of current and future flood risk for multi-purpose applications. This new approach overcomes the limits of the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, which does not permit a suitable evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies, because the vulnerability component cannot be properly assessed. Moreover, FloodRisk is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. This FOSS approach can promotes transparency and accountability through a process of "guided discovery". Moreover, the immediacy with which information is presented by the qualitative flood risk map, can facilitate and speed up the process of knowledge acquisition. An application of FloodRisk model is showed on a pilot case in "Serio" Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been highlighted focusing on the utility of the results provided for the development of FRMPs. Although they still present limits which prevent the FloodRisk application without critically consider the peculiarities of the investigated area in terms of available knowledge on hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the proposed approach surely produces an increase in available knowledge of flood risk and its drivers. This further information cannot be neglected for defining risk mitigation objectives and strategies. Hence, considering the ongoing efforts in the improvement of data availability and quality, FloodRisk could be a suitable tool for the next revision of flood risk maps due by December 2019, supporting effectively Italian and EU practitioners in the delineation of FRMPs (and for flood risk management in general).

Real Option Cost Vulnerability Analysis of Electrical Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prime, Thomas; Knight, Phil

2015-04-01

Critical infrastructure such as electricity substations are vulnerable to various geo-hazards that arise from climate change. These geo-hazards range from increased vegetation growth to increased temperatures and flood inundation. Of all the identified geo-hazards, coastal flooding has the greatest impact, but to date has had a low probability of occurring. However, in the face of climate change, coastal flooding is likely to occur more often due to extreme water levels being experienced more frequently due to sea-level rise (SLR). Knowing what impact coastal flooding will have now and in the future on critical infrastructure such as electrical substations is important for long-term management. Using a flood inundation model, present day and future flood events have been simulated, from 1 in 1 year events up to 1 in 10,000 year events. The modelling makes an integrated assessment of impact by using sea-level and surge to simulate a storm tide. The geographical area the model covers is part of the Northwest UK coastline with a range of urban and rural areas. The ensemble of flood maps generated allows the identification of critical infrastructure exposed to coastal flooding. Vulnerability has be assessed using an Estimated Annual Damage (EAD) value. Sampling SLR annual probability distributions produces a projected "pathway" for SLR up to 2100. EAD is then calculated using a relationship derived from the flood model. Repeating the sampling process allows a distribution of EAD up to 2100 to be produced. These values are discounted to present day values using an appropriate discount rate. If the cost of building and maintain defences is also removed from this a Net Present Value (NPV) of building the defences can be calculated. This distribution of NPV can be used as part of a cost modelling process involving Real Options, A real option is the right but not obligation to undertake investment decisions. In terms of investment in critical infrastructure resilience this means that a real option can be deferred or exercised depending on the climate future that has been realised. The real option value is defined as the maximum positive NPV value that is found across the range of potential SLR "futures". Real Options add value in that flood defences may not be built when there is real value in doing so. The cost modelling output is in the form of an accessible database that has detailed real option values varying spatially across the model domain (for each critical infrastructure) and temporally up to 2100. The analysis has shown that in 2100, 8.2% of the substations analysed have a greater than a 1 in 2 chance of exercising the real option to build flood defences against coastal flooding. The cost modelling tool and flood maps that have been developed will help stakeholders in deciding where and when to invest in mitigating against coastal flooding.

An Offline-Online Android Application for Hazard Event Mapping Using WebGIS Open Source Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Derron, Marc-Henri; Devkota, Sanjaya

2016-04-01

Nowadays, Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) plays an important role in better understanding and managing disaster risk reduction around the world. National and local government, NGOs and other stakeholders are increasingly seeking and producing data on hazards. Most of the hazard event inventories and land use mapping are based on remote sensing data, with little ground truthing, creating difficulties depending on the terrain and accessibility. Open Source WebGIS tools offer an opportunity for quicker and easier ground truthing of critical areas in order to analyse hazard patterns and triggering factors. This study presents a secure mobile-map application for hazard event mapping using Open Source WebGIS technologies such as Postgres database, Postgis, Leaflet, Cordova and Phonegap. The objectives of this prototype are: 1. An Offline-Online android mobile application with advanced Geospatial visualisation; 2. Easy Collection and storage of events information applied services; 3. Centralized data storage with accessibility by all the service (smartphone, standard web browser); 4. Improving data management by using active participation in hazard event mapping and storage. This application has been implemented as a low-cost, rapid and participatory method for recording impacts from hazard events and includes geolocation (GPS data and Internet), visualizing maps with overlay of satellite images, viewing uploaded images and events as cluster points, drawing and adding event information. The data can be recorded in offline (Android device) or online version (all browsers) and consequently uploaded through the server whenever internet is available. All the events and records can be visualized by an administrator and made public after approval. Different user levels can be defined to access the data for communicating the information. This application was tested for landslides in post-earthquake Nepal but can be used for any other type of hazards such as flood, avalanche, etc. Keywords: Offline, Online, WebGIS Open source, Android, Hazard Event Mapping

The KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment methodology for water-related natural hazards - Part 2: Application to the Zurich case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ronco, P.; Bullo, M.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Olschewski, R.; Zappa, M.; Marcomini, A.

2014-07-01

The main objective of the paper is the application of the KULTURisk Regional Risk Assessment (KR-RRA) methodology, presented in the companion paper (Part 1, Ronco et al., 2014), to the Sihl River valley, in Switzerland. Through a tuning process of the methodology to the site-specific context and features, flood related risks have been assessed for different receptors lying on the Sihl River valley including the city of Zurich, which represents a typical case of river flooding in urban area. After characterizing the peculiarities of the specific case study, risk maps have been developed under a 300 years return period scenario (selected as baseline) for six identified relevant targets, exposed to flood risk in the Sihl valley, namely: people, economic activities (including buildings, infrastructures and agriculture), natural and semi-natural systems and cultural heritage. Finally, the total risk index map, which allows to identify and rank areas and hotspots at risk by means of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis tools, has been produced to visualize the spatial pattern of flood risk within the area of study. By means of a tailored participative approach, the total risk maps supplement the consideration of technical experts with the (essential) point of view of the relevant stakeholders for the appraisal of the specific scores and weights related to the receptor-relative risks. The total risk maps obtained for the Sihl River case study are associated with the lower classes of risk. In general, higher relative risks are concentrated in the deeply urbanized area within and around the Zurich city centre and areas that rely just behind to the Sihl River course. Here, forecasted injuries and potential fatalities are mainly due to high population density and high presence of old (vulnerable) people; inundated buildings are mainly classified as continuous and discontinuous urban fabric; flooded roads, pathways and railways, the majority of them referring to the Zurich main train station (Hauptbahnhof), are at high risk of inundation, causing huge indirect damages. The analysis of flood risk to agriculture, natural and semi-natural systems and cultural heritage have pointed out that these receptors could be relatively less impacted by the selected flood scenario mainly because their scattered presence. Finally, the application of the KR-RRA methodology to the Sihl River case study as well as to several other sites across Europe (not presented here), has demonstrated its flexibility and possible adaptation to different geographical and socio-economic contexts, depending on data availability and peculiarities of the sites, as well as for other hazard scenarios.

24 CFR 3285.406 - Flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Flood hazard areas. 3285.406... URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODEL MANUFACTURED HOME INSTALLATION STANDARDS Anchorage Against Wind § 3285.406 Flood hazard areas. Refer to § 3285.302 for anchoring requirements in flood hazard areas. ...

Debris Flow Simulation using FLO-2D on the 2004 Landslide Area of Real, General Nakar, and Infanta, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llanes, F.; dela Resma, M.; Ferrer, P.; Realino, V.; Aquino, D. T.; Eco, R. C.; Lagmay, A.

2013-12-01

From November 14 to December 3, 2004, Luzon Island was ravaged by 4 successive typhoons: Typhoon Mufia, Tropical Storm Merbok, Tropical Depression Winnie, and Super Typhoon Nanmadol. Tropical Depression Winnie was the most destructive of the four when it triggered landslides on November 29 that devastated the municipalities of Infanta, General Nakar, and Real in Quezon Province, southeast Luzon. Winnie formed east of Central Luzon on November 27 before it moved west-northwestward over southeastern Luzon on November 29. A total of 1,068 lives were lost and more than USD 170 million worth of damages to crops and infrastructure were incurred from the landslides triggered by Typhoon Winnie on November 29 and the flooding caused by the 4 typhoons. FLO-2D, a flood routing software for generating flood and debris flow hazard maps, was utilized to simulate the debris flows that could potentially affect the study area. Based from the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency analysis, the cumulative rainfall from typhoon Winnie on November 29 which was approximately 342 mm over a 9-hour period was classified within a 100-year return period. The Infanta station of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) was no longer able to measure the amount of rainfall after this period because the rain gauge in that station was washed away by floods. Rainfall data with a 100-year return period was simulated over the watersheds delineated from a SAR-derived digital elevation model. The resulting debris flow hazard map was compared with results from field investigation and previous studies made on the landslide event. The simulation identified 22 barangays (villages) with a total of 45,155 people at risk of turbulent flow and flooding.

GIS and local knowledge in disaster management: a case study of flood risk mapping in Viet Nam.

PubMed

Tran, Phong; Shaw, Rajib; Chantry, Guillaume; Norton, John

2009-03-01

Linking community knowledge with modern techniques to record and analyse risk related data is one way of engaging and mobilising community capacity. This paper discusses the use of the Geographic Information System (GIS) at the local level and the need for integrating modern technology and indigenous knowledge into disaster management. It suggests a way to mobilise available human and technical resources in order to strengthen a good partnership between local communities and local and national institutions. The paper also analyses the current vulnerability of two communes by correlating hazard risk and loss/damage caused by disasters and the contribution that domestic risk maps in the community can make to reduce this risk. The disadvantages, advantages and lessons learned from the GIS flood risk mapping project are presented through the case study of the Quang Tho Commune in Thua Thien Hue province, central Viet Nam.

Evaluation of urban flood damages in climate and land use changes: Case Studies from Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kefi, M.; Binaya, M. K.; Kumar, P.; Fukushi, K.

2017-12-01

Urbanization, changes in land use and global warming increase the threat of natural disasters such as flooding. In recent decades, it was observed a rise of intensity and frequency of flood events. The exposure both of people and the national economy to flood hazards is amplified and can induce serious economic and social damages. For this reason, local governments adopted several strategies to cope with flood risk in urban areas in particular, but a better comprehension of the flood hazard factors may enhance the efficiency of mitigating measures overall. For this research, a spatial analysis is applied to estimate future direct flood damage for 2030 in three Southeast Asian megacities: Jakarta (Indonesia), Metro-Manila (Philippines) and Hanoi (Vietnam). This comprehensive method combined flood characteristics (flood depth) obtained from flood simulation using FLO-2D, land use generated from supervised classification and remote sensing products, property value of affected buildings and flood damage rate derived from flood depth function. This function is established based on field surveys with local people affected by past flood events. Additionally, two scenarios were analyzed to simulate the future conditions. The first one is related to climate change and it is based on several General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, the second one is establish to point out the effect of adaptation strategies. The findings shows that the climate change combined with the expansion of built-up areas increase the vulnerability of urban areas to flooding and the economic damage. About 16%, 8% and 19% of flood inundation areas are expected to increase respectively in Metro-Manila, Jakarta and Hanoi. However, appropriate flood control measures can be helpful to reduce the impact of natural disaster. Furthermore, flood damage maps are generated at a large scale, which can be helpful to local stakeholders when prioritizing their mitigation strategies on urban disaster resilience.

77 FR 18844 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-28

...: Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-B-1236] Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: Comments are requested on proposed flood hazard determinations, which may include additions or modifications of any Base Flood Elevation (BFE), base flood depth...

78 FR 49277 - Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-13

...: Internal Agency Docket No. FEMA-B-1345] Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: Comments are requested on proposed flood hazard determinations, which may include additions or modifications of any Base Flood Elevation (BFE), base flood depth...

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis System Digital Elevation Model: Report 1: Intermediate Submission No. 1.1

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

Center 1261 Duck Rd. Kitty Hawk, NC 27949 Lisa Stillwell, Margaret Blanchard-Montgomery, Brian Blanton Renaissance Computing Institute 100 Europa...Insurance Studies in the study area, and serve as the basis for new coastal hazard analysis and ultimately updated Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs). Study... hazard zones in coastal areas of the United States. Under Task Order HSFE03-06-X-0023, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and project partners are

Extreme flood event analysis in Indonesia based on rainfall intensity and recharge capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narulita, Ida; Ningrum, Widya

2018-02-01

Indonesia is very vulnerable to flood disaster because it has high rainfall events throughout the year. Flood is categorized as the most important hazard disaster because it is causing social, economic and human losses. The purpose of this study is to analyze extreme flood event based on satellite rainfall dataset to understand the rainfall characteristic (rainfall intensity, rainfall pattern, etc.) that happened before flood disaster in the area for monsoonal, equatorial and local rainfall types. Recharge capacity will be analyzed using land cover and soil distribution. The data used in this study are CHIRPS rainfall satellite data on 0.05 ° spatial resolution and daily temporal resolution, and GSMap satellite rainfall dataset operated by JAXA on 1-hour temporal resolution and 0.1 ° spatial resolution, land use and soil distribution map for recharge capacity analysis. The rainfall characteristic before flooding, and recharge capacity analysis are expected to become the important information for flood mitigation in Indonesia.

A LiDAR based analysis of hydraulic hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazorzi, F.; De Luca, A.; Checchinato, A.; Segna, F.; Dalla Fontana, G.

2012-04-01

Mapping hydraulic hazard is a ticklish procedure as it involves technical and socio-economic aspects. On the one hand no dangerous areas should be excluded, on the other hand it is important not to exceed, beyond the necessary, with the surface assigned to some use limitations. The availability of a high resolution topographic survey allows nowadays to face this task with innovative procedures, both in the planning (mapping) and in the map validation phases. The latter is the object of the present work. It should be stressed that the described procedure is proposed purely as a preliminary analysis based on topography only, and therefore does not intend in any way to replace more sophisticated analysis methods requiring based on hydraulic modelling. The reference elevation model is a combination of the digital terrain model and the digital building model (DTM+DBM). The option of using the standard surface model (DSM) is not viable, as the DSM represents the vegetation canopy as a solid volume. This has the consequence of unrealistically considering the vegetation as a geometric obstacle to water flow. In some cases the topographic model construction requires the identification and digitization of the principal breaklines, such as river banks, ditches and similar natural or artificial structures. The geometrical and topological procedure for the validation of the hydraulic hazard maps is made of two steps. In the first step the whole area is subdivided into fluvial segments, with length chosen as a reasonable trade-off between the need to keep the hydrographical unit as complete as possible, and the need to separate sections of the river bed with significantly different morphology. Each of these segments is made of a single elongated polygon, whose shape can be quite complex, especially for meandering river sections, where the flow direction (i.e. the potential energy gradient associated to the talweg) is often inverted. In the second step the segments are analysed one by one. Therefore, each segment was split into many reaches, so that within any of them the slope of the piezometric line can be approximated to zero. As a consequence, the hydraulic profile (open channel flow) in every reach is assumed horizontal both downslope and on the cross-section. Each reach can be seen as a polygon, delimited laterally by the hazard mapping boundaries and longitudinally by two successive cross sections, usually orthogonal to the talweg line. Simulating the progressive increase of the river stage, with a horizontal piezometric line, allow the definition of the stage-area and stage-volume relationships. Such relationships are obtained exclusively by the geometric information as provided by the high resolution elevation model. The maximum flooded area resulting from the simulation is finally compared to the potentially floodable area described by the hazard maps, to give a flooding index for every reach. Index values lower than 100% show that the mapped hazard area exceeds the maximum floodable area. Very low index values identify spots where there is a significant incongruity between the hazard map and the topography, and where a specific verification is probably needed. The procedure was successfully used for the validation of many hazard maps across Italy.

The use of old cartographic datasets along with remote sensing data for better understand and map the 2005-2008 floods in Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craciunescu, V.; Flueraru, C.; Stancalie, G.

2009-04-01

Floods are the major disaster affecting many countries in the world year after year. From Romania perspective, floods are among the most hazardous natural disasters in terms of human suffering and economic losses. Major floods occurred in 2005, 2006 and 2008, the worst ones in more than 40 years, have affected large regions of Romania: in the Timis county (April 2005) over 1 300 homes have been damaged or destroyed, 3 800 people have been evacuated and about 30 000 hectares of agricultural land flooded; in five counties situated in eastern Romania (July 2005) 11 000 homes were inundated, 8 600 people have been evacuated, 20 people were killed, 53 000 ha farmland flooded, 379 bridges damaged or destroyed; in 12 counties along the Danube (April 2006) 3 077 homes were affected (1.049 completely destroyed), 16 000 people evacuated, five people killed, 144 000 hectares of land flooded; in six counties from the North-East part of Romania (July 2008) 3 985 houses were affected (over 300 totally destroyed), 15 834 people evacuated and 35 084 hectares of agricultural land inundated. Flood management evolves and changes as more knowledge and technology becomes available to the environmental community. Satellite imagery can be very effective for flood management in detailed mapping that is required for the production of hazard assessment maps and for input to various types of hydrological models, as well as in monitoring land use/cover changes over the years to quantify prominent changes in land use/cover in general and extent of impervious area in particular. In the same time, the wealth of old cartographic documents is an important cultural and scientific heritage. By careful studying this kind of documents, a modern manager can better understand the way territory was managed in the past and the implications of that management in today's floods reality. Good quality photo cameras, flat-bed and large size scanners were used to convert the analogue old cartographic materials into digital files. Specially, highly compressed, file formats were used to reduce the raster database size without affecting the documents quality. Digitisation and online distribution of this kind of documents, via an online system, provided new ways to access and to interact with our patrimony and new tangible arguments for the flood decision makers. The research included the development of key components and modules providing characterisation (based on metadata), virtual storage, discovery and access services, including intuitive query and browsing mechanisms and exploiting the potential of semantic web and advanced storage technologies. For all the mentioned flood events various processing techniques (classification, geo-referencing, filtering, and photo-interpretation) were used to combine the optical and radar images in order to delineate the flooded areas. The resulted flood masks were integrated in GIS environment with the old cartographic database and also with digital layers that represent the current geographic reality.

Elk River Watershed - Flood Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

2014-12-01

Flooding has the potential to cause significant impacts to economic activities as well as to disrupt or displace populations. Changing climate regimes such as extreme precipitation events increase flood vulnerability and put additional stresses on infrastructure. Potential flooding from just under 100 (2009 NPRI Reviewed Facility Data Release, Environment Canada) toxic tailings ponds located in Canada increase risk to human safety and the environment. One such geotechnical failure spilt billions of litres of toxic tailings into the Fraser River watershed, British Columbia, when a tailings pond dam breach occurred in August 2014. Damaged and washed out roadways cut access to essential services as seen by the extensive floods that occurred in Saskatchewan and Manitoba in July 2014, and in Southern Alberta in 2013. Recovery efforts from events such as these can be lengthy, and have substantial social and economic impacts both in loss of revenue and cost of repair. The objective of this study is to investigate existing conditions in the Elk River watershed and model potential future hydrological changes that can increase flood risk hazards. By analyzing existing hydrology, meteorology, land cover, land use, economic, and settlement patterns a baseline is established for existing conditions in the Elk River watershed. Coupling the Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) high-resolution spatial hydrometeorological model with flood hazard analysis methodology, high-resolution flood vulnerability base line maps are created using historical climate conditions. Further work in 2015 will examine possible impacts for a range of climate change and land use change scenarios to define changes to future flood risk and vulnerability.

Understanding Nuisance Flooding Conceptualizations and Concerns of Stakeholders in the Northern U.S. Gulf Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLorme, D.; Collini, R.; Stephens, S. H.

2017-12-01

As sea level rises, nuisance flooding along coasts is increasing. There is a need to understand how the public views flooding events in order to tailor communications to different audiences appropriately and help improve community resilience. This interdisciplinary presentation is intended to foster greater awareness about present-day nuisance flooding, ongoing conversation about best practices for accurately and effectively communicating about this "cumulative hazard" and its risks, and consideration about possible preparation and mitigation options for community resilience. The presentation will begin by defining and explaining nuisance flooding according to scientific experts and the scholarly literature. Next, we will share several specific examples of how nuisance flooding is increasingly impacting certain areas in the Northern U.S. Gulf Coast to demonstrate the importance of raising attention to and better understanding of this phenomenon across a range of audiences. We will particularly focus on the complex interrelated social, economic, and ecological issues associated with this hazard. Then, we will compare and contrast conceptualizations of nuisance flooding (characteristics, causes, consequences) and associated concerns from the viewpoints and experiences of various stakeholders in the Northern U.S. Gulf Coast (e.g., natural resource managers, community planners, extension specialists). These data are synthesized from multiple research methods and engagement mechanisms (e.g., focus groups, workshop mapping exercises) implemented during the first year of a multi-year NOAA-sponsored interdisciplinary project on Dynamic Sea Level Rise Assessments of the Ability of Natural and Nature-based Features to Mitigate Surge and Nuisance Flooding. To conclude, we will provide future research recommendations along with references and resources about nuisance flooding.

78 FR 77479 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Revision to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-23

... and Docket ID. Regardless of the method used for submitting comments or material, all submissions will... flood hazards when physical changes occur. In 44 CFR 65.4, communities are provided the right to submit... the NFIP maps, a community must submit scientific or technical data demonstrating the need for a...

36 CFR 28.12 - Development standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... significant harm to the natural resources of the Seashore. (c) Minimum lot size is 4,000 square feet. A.../FEMA shown on Flood Insurance Rate Maps for Fire Island communities. (g) A swimming pool is an... hazards and/or detract from the natural or cultural scene. (j) A zoning authority shall have in place...

78 FR 20334 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-04

... a Letter of Map Revision (LOMR), in accordance with Title 44, Part 65 of the Code of Federal... in a newspaper of local circulation, any person has ninety (90) days in which to request through the........... 060299 areas San Joaquin Vogel, Chairman, Public Works Docs/12-09-2566P- County (12-09- San Joaquin...

77 FR 73480 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-10

... Florence, AZ 85232. 85132. Yavapai Town of Camp Verde The Honorable Bob Town Clerk's http://www.r9map.org... Camp Main Street, Room 040131-102IAC.pdf. Verde, 473 South 102, Camp Verde, Main Street, AZ 86322. Suite 102, Camp Verde, AZ 86322. California: Orange City of Irvine (12- The Honorable 1 Civic Center...

78 FR 32673 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-31

... a Letter of Map Revision (LOMR), in accordance with Title 44, Part 65 of the Code of Federal Regulations (44 CFR Part 65). The LOMR will be used by insurance agents and others to calculate appropriate... Act of 1968, 42 U.S.C. 4001 et seq., and with 44 CFR Part 65. [[Page 32674

32 CFR 643.31 - Policy-Flood hazards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Policy-Flood hazards. 643.31 Section 643.31... ESTATE Policy § 643.31 Policy—Flood hazards. Each Determination of Availability Report will include an evaluation of the flood hazards, if any, relative to the property involved in the proposed outgrant action...

34 CFR 75.611 - Avoidance of flood hazards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Avoidance of flood hazards. 75.611 Section 75.611... by a Grantee? Construction § 75.611 Avoidance of flood hazards. In planning the construction, a...) Evaluate flood hazards in connection with the construction; and (b) As far as practicable, avoid uneconomic...

Utilising social media contents for flood inundation mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Dransch, Doris; Fohringer, Joachim; Kreibich, Heidi

2016-04-01

Data about the hazard and its consequences are scarce and not readily available during and shortly after a disaster. An information source which should be explored in a more efficient way is eyewitness accounts via social media. This research presents a methodology that leverages social media content to support rapid inundation mapping, including inundation extent and water depth in the case of floods. It uses quantitative data that are estimated from photos extracted from social media posts and their integration with established data. Due to the rapid availability of these posts compared to traditional data sources such as remote sensing data, areas affected by a flood, for example, can be determined quickly. Key challenges are to filter the large number of posts to a manageable amount of potentially useful inundation-related information, and to interpret and integrate the posts into mapping procedures in a timely manner. We present a methodology and a tool ("PostDistiller") to filter geo-located posts from social media services which include links to photos and to further explore this spatial distributed contextualized in situ information for inundation mapping. The June 2013 flood in Dresden is used as an application case study in which we evaluate the utilization of this approach and compare the resulting spatial flood patterns and inundation depths to 'traditional' data sources and mapping approaches like water level observations and remote sensing flood masks. The outcomes of the application case are encouraging. Strengths of the proposed procedure are that information for the estimation of inundation depth is rapidly available, particularly in urban areas where it is of high interest and of great value because alternative information sources like remote sensing data analysis do not perform very well. The uncertainty of derived inundation depth data and the uncontrollable availability of the information sources are major threats to the utility of the approach.

Runoff inundation hazard cartography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineux, N.; Degré, A.

2012-04-01

Between 1998 and 2004, Europe suffered from more than hundred major inundations, responsible for some 700 deaths, for the moving of about half a million of people and the economic losses of at least 25 billions Euros covered by the insurance policies. Within this context, EU launched the 2007/60/CE directive. The inundations are natural phenomenon. They cannot be avoided. Nevertheless this directive permits to better evaluate the risks and to coordinate the management measures taken at member states level. In most countries, inundation maps only include rivers' overflowing. In Wallonia, overland flows and mudflows also cause huge damages, and must be included in the flood hazard map. Indeed, the cleaning operations for a village can lead to an estimated cost of 11 000 €. Average construction cost of retention dams to control off-site damage caused by floods and muddy flows was valued at 380 000€, and yearly dredging costs associated with these retention ponds at 15 000€. For a small city for which a study was done in a more specific way (Gembloux), the mean annual cost for the damages that can generate the runoff is about 20 000€. This cost consists of the physical damages caused to the real estate and movable properties of the residents as well as the emergency operations of the firemen and the city. On top of damages to public infrastructure (clogging of trenches, silting up of retention ponds) and to private property by muddy flows, runoff generates a significant loss of arable land. Yet, the soil resource is not an unlimited commodity. Moreover, sediments' transfer to watercourses alters their physical and chemical quality. And that is not to mention the increased psychological stress for people. But to map overland flood and mud flow hazard is a real challenge. This poster will present the methodology used to in Wallonia. The methodology is based on 3 project rainfalls: 25, 50 and 100 years return period (consistency with the cartography of the overflowing hazard map), with a rain duration set at 1h. The arable lands are considered as bare, except for the permanent meadows. The worst situation is envisaged, the hydrologic effect of the soil cover in the farming area being variable from a year to another according to the vegetative development and to the cultural operations. The peak discharge is chosen as the more critic parameter because it synthesizes the watershed propensity to stream, its size, and its flow network. The cartographic representation is done in a linear way along the concentrated runoff axes. Whereas this first approach at regional scale includes uncertainties, the aim of this map is currently to prompt consideration of the runoff inundation hazard during the design of urban development projects.

78 FR 29760 - Final Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-21

... accordance with section 110 of the Flood Disaster Protection Act of 1973, 42 U.S.C. 4104, and 44 CFR part 67...] Final Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Final Notice. SUMMARY: Flood hazard determinations, which may include additions or modifications of Base Flood...

floodX: urban flash flood experiments monitored with conventional and alternative sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moy de Vitry, Matthew; Dicht, Simon; Leitão, João P.

2017-09-01

The data sets described in this paper provide a basis for developing and testing new methods for monitoring and modelling urban pluvial flash floods. Pluvial flash floods are a growing hazard to property and inhabitants' well-being in urban areas. However, the lack of appropriate data collection methods is often cited as an impediment for reliable flood modelling, thereby hindering the improvement of flood risk mapping and early warning systems. The potential of surveillance infrastructure and social media is starting to draw attention for this purpose. In the floodX project, 22 controlled urban flash floods were generated in a flood response training facility and monitored with state-of-the-art sensors as well as standard surveillance cameras. With these data, it is possible to explore the use of video data and computer vision for urban flood monitoring and modelling. The floodX project stands out as the largest documented flood experiment of its kind, providing both conventional measurements and video data in parallel and at high temporal resolution. The data set used in this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.830513.

Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

2015-12-01

Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the Gulf of Mexico, and improved the accuracy and resolution of the Probabilistic Storm Surge model.

Global and local scale flood discharge simulations in the Rhine River basin for flood risk reduction benchmarking in the Flagship Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

2015-04-01

The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to the the river gauging station data at the German part of the Rhine river basin. This is an important finding that both 0.5-km and 20-km BTOP models produce similar flood peak discharges although the 0.5-km BTOP model results indicate the importance of scale in the local flood hazard assessment. In summary, we highlight that this study serves as a demonstrative example of institutional collaboration and is stepping stone for the next step implementation of the IFI Flagship Project.

Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

2013-12-01

In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change research. We carried out the research by simulating daily river discharge using a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB), forced with gridded climate reanalysis time-series. From this, we derived peak annual flood volumes for large-scale river basins globally. These were used to force a global inundation model (dynRout) to map inundation extent and depth for return periods between 2 and 1000 years, under El Niño conditions, neutral conditions, and La Niña conditions. Theses flood hazard maps were combined with global datasets on socioeconomic variables such as population and income to represent the socioeconomic exposure to flooding, and depth-damage curves to represent vulnerability.

Modelling Inland Flood Events for Hazard Maps in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, S.; Nzerem, K.; Sassi, M.; Hilberts, A.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Mathur, P.; Mitas, C.; Rafique, F.

2015-12-01

Taiwan experiences significant inland flooding, driven by torrential rainfall from plum rain storms and typhoons during summer and fall. From last 13 to 16 years data, 3,000 buildings were damaged by such floods annually with a loss US$0.41 billion (Water Resources Agency). This long, narrow island nation with mostly hilly/mountainous topography is located at tropical-subtropical zone with annual average typhoon-hit-frequency of 3-4 (Central Weather Bureau) and annual average precipitation of 2502mm (WRA) - 2.5 times of the world's average. Spatial and temporal distributions of countrywide precipitation are uneven, with very high local extreme rainfall intensities. Annual average precipitation is 3000-5000mm in the mountainous regions, 78% of it falls in May-October, and the 1-hour to 3-day maximum rainfall are about 85 to 93% of the world records (WRA). Rivers in Taiwan are short with small upstream areas and high runoff coefficients of watersheds. These rivers have the steepest slopes, the shortest response time with rapid flows, and the largest peak flows as well as specific flood peak discharge (WRA) in the world. RMS has recently developed a countrywide inland flood model for Taiwan, producing hazard return period maps at 1arcsec grid resolution. These can be the basis for evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses. The model is initiated with sub-daily historical meteorological forcings and calibrated to daily discharge observations at about 50 river gauges over the period 2003-2013. Simulations of hydrologic processes, via rainfall-runoff and routing models, are subsequently performed based on a 10000 year set of stochastic forcing. The rainfall-runoff model is physically based continuous, semi-distributed model for catchment hydrology. The 1-D wave propagation hydraulic model considers catchment runoff in routing and describes large-scale transport processes along the river. It also accounts for reservoir storage. Major historical flood events have been successfully simulated along with spatial patterns of flows. Comparison of stochastic discharge statistics w.r.t. observed ones from Hydrological Year Books of Taiwan over all recorded years are also in good agreement.

A combined approach to physical vulnerability of large cities exposed to natural hazards - the case study of Arequipa, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thouret, Jean-Claude; Ettinger, Susanne; Zuccaro, Giulio; Guitton, Mathieu; Martelli, Kim; Degregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Santoni, Olivier; Magill, Christina; Luque, Juan Alexis; Arguedas, Ana

2013-04-01

Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru with almost one million inhabitants, is exposed to various natural hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, flash floods, and volcanic eruptions. This study focuses on the vulnerability and response of housing, infrastructure and lifelines in Arequipa to flash floods and eruption induced hazards, notably lahars from El Misti volcano. We propose a combined approach for assessing physical vulnerability in a large city based on: (1) remote sensing utilizing high-resolution imagery (SPOT5, Google Earth Pro, Bing, Pléïades) to map the distribution and type of land use, properties of city blocks in terms of exposure to the hazard (elevation above river level, distance to channel, impact angle, etc.); (2) in situ survey of buildings and critical infrastructure (e.g., bridges) and strategic resources (e.g., potable water, irrigation, sewage); (3) information gained from interviews with engineers involved in construction works, previous crises (e.g., June 2001 earthquake) and risk mitigation in Arequipa. Remote sensing and mapping at the scale of the city has focused on three pilot areas, along the perennial Rio Chili valley that crosses the city and oasis from north to south, and two of the east-margin tributaries termed Quebrada (ravine): San Lazaro crossing the northern districts and Huarangal crossing the northeastern districts. Sampling of city blocks through these districts provides varying geomorphic, structural, historical, and socio-economic characteristics for each sector. A reconnaissance survey included about 900 edifices located in 40 city blocks across districts of the pilot areas, distinct in age, construction, land use and demographics. A building acts as a structural system and its strength and resistance to flashfloods and lahars therefore highly depends on the type of construction and the used material. Each building surveyed was assigned to one of eight building categories based on physical criteria (dominant building materials, number of floors, percentage and quality of openings, etc). Future steps in this study include mapping potential impacts from flash flood and lahars as a function of frequency of occurrence and magnitude. For this purpose, we will regroup the eight building types identified in Arequipa to obtain a reduced number of vulnerability categories. Fragility functions will then be established for each vulnerability category and hazard relating percentage damage to parameters such as flow velocity, depth, and dynamic and hydrostatic pressure. These functions will be applied to flow simulations for each of the three river channels considered with the final goal to determine potential losses, identify areas of particularly high risk and to prepare plans for evacuation, relocation and rehabilitation. In the long term, this investigation aims to contribute towards a multi-hazard risk analysis including earthquake- and other volcanic hazards, e.g. ashfall and pyroclastic flows, all by considering the cascading effects of a hazard chain. We also plan to address the consequences of failure of two artificial lake dams located 40 and 70 km north of the city. A lake breakout flood or lahar would propagate beyond the city and would call for an immediate response including contingency plans and evacuation practices.

Use of Bedrock and Geomorphic Mapping Compilations in Assessing Geologic Hazards at Recreation Sites on National Forests in NW California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Fuente, J. A.; Bell, A.; Elder, D.; Mowery, R.; Mikulovsky, R.; Klingel, H.; Stevens, M.

2010-12-01

Geologic hazards on US Forest Service lands have a long history of producing catastrophic events. In 1890 (prior to the establishment of the Forest Service), the China Mine landslide buried a miner’s camp along the Trinity River in NW California, killing a number of miners. An earthquake in southwestern Montana triggered a massive landslide which killed 28 people in a US Forest Service campground in 1959. In 1980, Mount St. Helens erupted in Oregon, killing 57 people. Debris flows from a winter storm in 2003 on the burned hillslopes of the San Bernardino National Forest in California killed 14 people at the St. Sophia youth Camp. A rockfall in the summer of 2009 in Lassen National Park killed a 9 year old boy. The most recent catastrophe occurred on June 11, 2010 when 20 people died in a flash flood at the Albert Pike Campground on the Ouachita National Forest. These and other disasters point out the need for geologic hazard mapping and assessments on the National Forests. The US Forest Service (USFS) is currently assessing geologic hazards in the Northern Province of USFS Region 5 (Pacific Southwest Region), which includes the Klamath, Mendocino, Shasta-Trinity, and Six Rivers National Forests. The most common geologic hazards (relatively short return intervals) in this area include landslides, rock falls, debris flows, flooding, temporary dam failures (landslide or woody debris), naturally occurring hazardous materials, (asbestos radon, etc), and rarely, karst subsidence. Seismic and volcanic hazards are also important at longer return intervals. This assessment will be conducted in three phases, and is patterned after a process developed by Region 8 of the US Forest Service. The first phase is a reconnaissance level assessment based on existing information such as spatial databases, aerial photos, Digital Elevation Models, State of California Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone maps, previous investigations and anecdotal accounts of past events. The bedrock coverage is a compilation of the best available mapping for all National Forests in California. The geomorphic coverage includes features such as active and dormant landslides, alluvial fans, headwall basins, glacial features, and valley inner gorge. Criteria will be developed which utilize elements of this data to evaluate geologic hazards in the vicinity of developed recreation sites. The second phase will be conducted later and involves site specific analyses focusing on areas identified as higher hazard in the first phase, along with verification and updating of phase 1 findings. The third phase will complete any site level geologic or hydrologic investigations, and wrap up the hazard assessment process. A summary report with hazard maps and recommendations will be prepared at the end of each phase. The overriding goal of this project is to provide sound geologic information to managers so they can use a science-based approach in recognizing and managing geologic hazards at recreation sites.

Evaluating the Variations in the Flood Susceptibility Maps Accuracies due to the Alterations in the Type and Extent of the Flood Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tehrany, M. Sh.; Jones, S.

2017-10-01

This paper explores the influence of the extent and density of the inventory data on the final outcomes. This study aimed to examine the impact of different formats and extents of the flood inventory data on the final susceptibility map. An extreme 2011 Brisbane flood event was used as the case study. LR model was applied using polygon and point formats of the inventory data. Random points of 1000, 700, 500, 300, 100 and 50 were selected and susceptibility mapping was undertaken using each group of random points. To perform the modelling Logistic Regression (LR) method was selected as it is a very well-known algorithm in natural hazard modelling due to its easily understandable, rapid processing time and accurate measurement approach. The resultant maps were assessed visually and statistically using Area under Curve (AUC) method. The prediction rates measured for susceptibility maps produced by polygon, 1000, 700, 500, 300, 100 and 50 random points were 63 %, 76 %, 88 %, 80 %, 74 %, 71 % and 65 % respectively. Evidently, using the polygon format of the inventory data didn't lead to the reasonable outcomes. In the case of random points, raising the number of points consequently increased the prediction rates, except for 1000 points. Hence, the minimum and maximum thresholds for the extent of the inventory must be set prior to the analysis. It is concluded that the extent and format of the inventory data are also two of the influential components in the precision of the modelling.

Elevation uncertainty in coastal inundation hazard assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gesch, Dean B.; Cheval, Sorin

2012-01-01

Coastal inundation has been identified as an important natural hazard that affects densely populated and built-up areas (Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, 2008). Inundation, or coastal flooding, can result from various physical processes, including storm surges, tsunamis, intense precipitation events, and extreme high tides. Such events cause quickly rising water levels. When rapidly rising water levels overwhelm flood defenses, especially in heavily populated areas, the potential of the hazard is realized and a natural disaster results. Two noteworthy recent examples of such natural disasters resulting from coastal inundation are the Hurricane Katrina storm surge in 2005 along the Gulf of Mexico coast in the United States, and the tsunami in northern Japan in 2011. Longer term, slowly varying processes such as land subsidence (Committee on Floodplain Mapping Technologies, 2007) and sea-level rise also can result in coastal inundation, although such conditions do not have the rapid water level rise associated with other flooding events. Geospatial data are a critical resource for conducting assessments of the potential impacts of coastal inundation, and geospatial representations of the topography in the form of elevation measurements are a primary source of information for identifying the natural and human components of the landscape that are at risk. Recently, the quantity and quality of elevation data available for the coastal zone have increased markedly, and this availability facilitates more detailed and comprehensive hazard impact assessments.

On the combined use of high temporal resolution, optical satellite data for flood monitoring and mapping: a possible contribution from the RST approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faruolo, M.; Coviello, I.; Lacava, T.; Pergola, N.; Tramutoli, V.

2009-04-01

Among natural disasters, floods are ones of those more common and devastating, often causing high environmental, economical and social costs. When a flooding event occurs, timely information about precise location, extent, dynamic evolution, etc., is highly required in order to effectively support civil protection activities aimed at managing the emergency. Satellite remote sensing may represent a supplementary information source, providing mapping and continuous monitoring of flooding extent as well as a quick damage assessment. Such purposes need frequently updated satellite images as well as suitable image processing techniques, able to identify flooded areas with reliability and timeliness. Recently, an innovative satellite data analysis approach (named RST, Robust Satellite Technique) has been applied to NOAA-AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) satellite data in order to dynamically map flooded areas. Thanks to a multi-temporal analysis of co-located satellite records and an automatic change detection scheme, such an approach allows to overcome major drawbacks related to the previously proposed methods (mostly not automatic and based on empirically chosen thresholds, often affected by false identifications). In this paper, RST approach has been for the first time applied to both AVHRR and EOS/MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data, in order to assess its potential - in flooded area mapping and monitoring - on different satellite packages characterized by different spectral and spatial resolutions. As a study case, the flooding event which hit the Europe in August 2002 has been selected. Preliminary results shown in this study seem to confirm the potential of such an approach in providing reliable and timely information, useful for near real time flood hazard assessment and monitoring, using both MODIS and AVHRR data. Moreover, the combined use of information coming from both satellite packages (easily achievable thanks to the intrinsic RST exportability on different sensors) significantly improves (from 6 to less than 3 hours) surface sampling rate, reducing the negative impact of cloud coverage, currently one of the main limit of this kind of satellite technology.

Modeling a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Process Chain: The Case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, Rachel; Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo; Rivas Gomez, Denny; McKinney, Daene C.; Portocarrero Rodriguez, Cesar

2016-04-01

One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on December 13, 1941, 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes: (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5-3 x 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 m and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming-moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 x 103 m3/s), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming-moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very little erosion resistance. With the current lake level, all three avalanche events result in inundation in Huaraz, and the resulting hazard map shows a total affected area of 2.01 km2, most of which is in the high-hazard category. Lowering the lake has the potential to reduce the affected area by up to 35% resulting in a smaller portion of the inundated area in the high-hazard category.

National Levee Database: monitoring, vulnerability assessment and management in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbetta, Silvia; Camici, Stefania; Maccioni, Pamela; Moramarco, Tommaso

2015-04-01

A properly designed and constructed levees system can often be an effective device for repelling floodwaters and provide barriers against inundation to protect urbanized and industrial areas. However, the delineation of flooding-prone areas and the related hydraulic hazard mapping taking account of uncertainty (Apel et al., 2008) are usually developed with a scarce consideration of the possible occurrence of levee failures along river channels (Mazzoleni et al., 2014). Indeed, it is well known that flooding is frequently the result of levee failures that can be triggered by several factors, as: (1) overtopping, (2) scouring of the foundation, (3) seepage/piping of levee body/foundation, and (4) sliding of the foundation. Among these failure mechanisms that are influenced by the levee's geometrical configuration, hydraulic conditions (e.g. river level and seepage), and material properties (e.g. permeability, cohesion, porosity, compaction), the piping caused by seepage (ICOLD, http://www.icold-cigb.org) is considered one of the most dominant levee failure mechanisms (Colleselli F., 1994; Wallingford H. R., 2003). The difficulty of estimating the hydraulic parameters to properly describe the seepage line within the body and foundation of the levee implies that the study of the critical flood wave routing is typically carried out by assuming that the levee system is undamaged during the flood event. In this context, implementing and making operational a National Levee Database (NLD), effectively structured and continuously updated, becomes fundamental to have a searchable inventory of information about levees available as a key resource supporting decisions and actions affecting levee safety. The ItaliaN LEvee Database (INLED) has been recently developed by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI) for the Civil Protection Department of the Presidency of Council of Ministers. INLED has the main focus of collecting comprehensive information about Italian levees and historical breach failures to be exploited in the framework of an operational procedure addressed to the seepage vulnerability assessment of river reaches where the levee system is an important structural measure against flooding. For its structure, INLED is a dynamic geospatial database with ongoing efforts to add levee data from authorities with the charge of hydraulic risk mitigation. In particular, the database is aimed to provide the available information about: i) location and condition of levees; ii) morphological and geometrical properties; iii) photographic documentation; iv) historical levee failures; v) assessment of vulnerability to overtopping and seepage carried out through a procedure based on simple vulnerability indexes (Camici et al. 2014); vi) management, control and maintenance; vii)flood hazard maps developed by assuming the levee system undamaged/damaged during the flood event. Currently, INLED contains data of levees that are mostly located in the Tiber basin, Central Italy. References Apel H., Merz B. & Thieken A.H. Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments. Int J River Basin Manag 2008, 6, (2), 149-162. Camici S,, Barbetta S., Moramarco T., Levee body vulnerability to seepage: the case study of the levee failure along the Foenna stream on 1st January 2006 (central Italy)", Journal of Flood Risk Management, in press. Colleselli F. Geotechnical problems related to river and channel embankments. Rotterdam, the Netherlands: Springer, 1994. H. R.Wallingford Consultants (HRWC). Risk assessment for flood and coastal defence for strategic planning: high level methodology technical report, London, 2003. Mazzoleni M., Bacchi B., Barontini S., Di Baldassarre G., Pilotti M. & Ranzi R. Flooding hazard mapping in floodplain areas affected by piping breaches in the Po River, Italy. J Hydrol Eng 2014, 19, (4), 717-731.

Determination of Watershed Lag Equation for Philippine Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cipriano, F. R.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.; Uichanco, C.; Mendoza, J.; Sabio, G.; Punay, K. N.; Oquindo, M. R.; Horritt, M.

2014-12-01

Widespread flooding is a major problem in the Philippines. The country experiences heavy amount of rainfall throughout the year and several areas are prone to flood hazards because of its unique topography. Human casualties and destruction of infrastructure are some of the damages caused by flooding and the country's government has undertaken various efforts to mitigate these hazards. One of the solutions was to create flood hazard maps of different floodplains and use them to predict the possible catastrophic results of different rain scenarios. To produce these maps, different types of data were needed and part of that is calculating hydrological components to come up with an accurate output. This paper presents how an important parameter, the time-to-peak of the watershed (Tp) was calculated. Time-to-peak is defined as the time at which the largest discharge of the watershed occurs. This is computed by using a lag time equation that was developed specifically for the Philippine setting. The equation involves three measurable parameters, namely, watershed length (L), maximum potential retention (S), and watershed slope (Y). This approach is based on a similar method developed by CH2M Hill and Horritt for Taiwan, which has a similar set of meteorological and hydrological parameters with the Philippines. Data from fourteen water level sensors covering 67 storms from all the regions in the country were used to estimate the time-to-peak. These sensors were chosen by using a screening process that considers the distance of the sensors from the sea, the availability of recorded data, and the catchment size. Values of Tp from the different sensors were generated from the general lag time equation based on the Natural Resource Conservation Management handbook by the US Department of Agriculture. The calculated Tp values were plotted against the values obtained from the equation L0.8(S+1)0.7/Y0.5. Regression analysis was used to obtain the final equation that would be used to calculate the time-to-peak specifically for rivers in the Philippine setting. The calculated values could then be used as a parameter for modeling different flood scenarios in the country.

Identifying Populace Susceptible to Flooding Using ArcGIS and Remote Sensing Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Sim Joseph; Milano, Alan

2016-07-01

Remote sensing technologies are growing vastly as with its various applications. The Department of Science and Technology (DOST), Republic of the Philippines, has made projects exploiting LiDAR datasets from remote sensing technologies. The Phil-LiDAR 1 project of DOST is a flood hazard mapping project. Among the project's objectives is the identification of building features which can be associated to the flood-exposed population. The extraction of building features from the LiDAR dataset is arduous as it requires manual identification of building features on an elevation map. The mapping of building footprints is made meticulous in order to compensate the accuracy between building floor area and building height both of which are crucial in flood decision making. A building identification method was developed to generate a LiDAR derivative which will serve as a guide in mapping building footprints. The method utilizes several tools of a Geographic Information System (GIS) software called ArcGIS which can operate on physical attributes of buildings such as roofing curvature, slope and blueprint area in order to obtain the LiDAR derivative from LiDAR dataset. The method also uses an intermediary process called building removal process wherein buildings and other features lying below the defined minimum building height - 2 meters in the case of Phil-LiDAR 1 project - are removed. The building identification method was developed in the hope to hasten the identification of building features especially when orthophotographs and/or satellite imageries are not made available.

12 CFR 760.9 - Notice of special flood hazards and availability of Federal disaster relief assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Notice of special flood hazards and... ADMINISTRATION REGULATIONS AFFECTING CREDIT UNIONS LOANS IN AREAS HAVING SPECIAL FLOOD HAZARDS § 760.9 Notice of special flood hazards and availability of Federal disaster relief assistance. (a) Notice requirement. When...

12 CFR 572.9 - Notice of special flood hazards and availability of Federal disaster relief assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Notice of special flood hazards and... SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY LOANS IN AREAS HAVING SPECIAL FLOOD HAZARDS § 572.9 Notice of special flood hazards and availability of Federal disaster relief assistance. (a) Notice requirement. When a...

7 CFR Exhibit A to Subpart C of... - Notice of Flood, Mudslide Hazard or Wetland Area

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Notice of Flood, Mudslide Hazard or Wetland Area A... Flood, Mudslide Hazard or Wetland Area TO:____ DATE:____ This is to notify you that the real property... of the Federal Emergency Management Agency as having special flood or mudslide hazards. This...

Applications of flood depth from rapid post-event footprint generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Naomi; Millinship, Ian

2015-04-01

Immediately following large flood events, an indication of the area flooded (i.e. the flood footprint) can be extremely useful for evaluating potential impacts on exposed property and infrastructure. Specifically, such information can help insurance companies estimate overall potential losses, deploy claims adjusters and ultimately assists the timely payment of due compensation to the public. Developing these datasets from remotely sensed products seems like an obvious choice. However, there are a number of important drawbacks which limit their utility in the context of flood risk studies. For example, external agencies have no control over the region that is surveyed, the time at which it is surveyed (which is important as the maximum extent would ideally be captured), and how freely accessible the outputs are. Moreover, the spatial resolution of these datasets can be low, and considerable uncertainties in the flood extents exist where dry surfaces give similar return signals to water. Most importantly of all, flood depths are required to estimate potential damages, but generally cannot be estimated from satellite imagery alone. In response to these problems, we have developed an alternative methodology for developing high-resolution footprints of maximum flood extent which do contain depth information. For a particular event, once reports of heavy rainfall are received, we begin monitoring real-time flow data and extracting peak values across affected areas. Next, using statistical extreme value analyses of historic flow records at the same measured locations, the return periods of the maximum event flow at each gauged location are estimated. These return periods are then interpolated along each river and matched to JBA's high-resolution hazard maps, which already exist for a series of design return periods. The extent and depth of flooding associated with the event flow is extracted from the hazard maps to create a flood footprint. Georeferenced ground, aerial and satellite images are used to establish defence integrity, highlight breach locations and validate our footprint. We have implemented this method to create seven flood footprints, including river flooding in central Europe and coastal flooding associated with Storm Xaver in the UK (both in 2013). The inclusion of depth information allows damages to be simulated and compared to actual damage and resultant loss which become available after the event. In this way, we can evaluate depth-damage functions used in catastrophe models and reduce their associated uncertainty. In further studies, the depth data could be used at an individual property level to calibrate property type specific depth-damage functions.

78 FR 14567 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-06

... Corona (12- The Honorable Public Works http://www.r9map.org/ May 3, 2013 060250 09-1650P). Jason Scott, Department, 400 Docs/12-09-1650P- Mayor, City of South Vicentia 060250-102DA.pdf. Corona, 400 South Avenue, Corona, Vicentia Avenue, CA 92882. Corona, CA 92882. Riverside City of Indian The Honorable City Hall, 44...

Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study-Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps: GIS Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Florence L.; Venturato, Angie J.; Geist, Eric L.

2006-01-01

Introduction: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Federal Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study (Chowdhury and others, 2005). Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. We present the spatial (geographic information system, GIS) data from the pilot study in standard GIS formats and provide files for visualization in Google Earth, a global map viewer.

Improving a DSM Obtained by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Flood Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mourato, Sandra; Fernandez, Paulo; Pereira, Luísa; Moreira, Madalena

2017-12-01

According to the EU flood risks directive, flood hazard map must be used to assess the flood risk. These maps can be developed with hydraulic modelling tools using a Digital Surface Runoff Model (DSRM). During the last decade, important evolutions of the spatial data processing has been developed which will certainly improve the hydraulic models results. Currently, images acquired with Red/Green/Blue (RGB) camera transported by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are seen as a good alternative data sources to represent the terrain surface with a high level of resolution and precision. The question is if the digital surface model obtain with this data is adequate enough for a good representation of the hydraulics flood characteristics. For this purpose, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS was run with 4 different DSRM for an 8.5 km reach of the Lis River in Portugal. The computational performance of the 4 modelling implementations is evaluated. Two hydrometric stations water level records were used as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model. The records from a third hydrometric station were used to validate the optimal DSRM. The HEC-RAS results had the best performance during the validation step were the ones where the DSRM with integration of the two altimetry data sources.

Residential and service-population exposure to multiple natural hazards in the Mount Hood region of Clackamas County, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathie, Amy M.; Wood, Nathan

2013-01-01

The objective of this research is to document residential and service-population exposure to natural hazards in the rural communities of Clackamas County, Oregon, near Mount Hood. The Mount Hood region of Clackamas County has a long history of natural events that have impacted its small, tourism-based communities. To support preparedness and emergency-management planning in the region, a geospatial analysis of population exposure was used to determine the number and type of residents and service populations in flood-, wildfire-, and volcano-related hazard zones. Service populations are a mix of residents and tourists temporarily benefitting from local services, such as retail, education, or recreation. In this study, service population includes day-use visitors at recreational sites, overnight visitors at hotels and resorts, children at schools, and community-center visitors. Although the heavily-forested, rural landscape suggests few people are in the area, there are seasonal peaks of thousands of visitors to the region. “Intelligent” dasymetric mapping efforts using 30-meter resolution land-cover imagery and U.S. Census Bureau data proved ineffective at adequately capturing either the spatial distribution or magnitude of population at risk. Consequently, an address-point-based hybrid dasymetric methodology of assigning population to the physical location of buildings mapped with a global positioning system was employed. The resulting maps of the population (1) provide more precise spatial distributions for hazard-vulnerability assessments, (2) depict appropriate clustering due to higher density structures, such as apartment complexes and multi-unit commercial buildings, and (3) provide new information on the spatial distribution and temporal variation of people utilizing services within the study area. Estimates of population exposure to flooding, wildfire, and volcanic hazards were determined by using overlay analysis in a geographic information system. Population exposure to flood hazards is low (less than 10 percent of residents) and does not vary substantially between 100-year and 500-year flood-hazard scenarios. Moderate, moderate-to-high, and high wildfire-risk areas within the study region account for 72 percent of residents, 62 percent of employees, and 60 percent of daytime visitors to recreation sites. Fifteen percent of businesses in the study area are in moderate-to-high or high wildfire-risk areas but these businesses represent 51 percent of the local workforce. A volcanic event at Mount Hood could directly impact up to 60 percent of residents in their homes and 87 percent of employees at their workplaces. The proximal volcanic-hazard zone alone includes 65 percent of employees, 80 percent of schools and community facilities, more than 60 percent of overnight visitors in peak seasons, and 82–100 percent of daytime visitors to recreation sites during the summer and winter months, respectively. The number of day-use visitors to recreation sites in the region is greatest during winter months (averaging 129,300 people per month), whereas overnight visitors are greatest during summer months (averaging 34,000 per month). This analysis of residential and service-population exposure to natural hazards supports the development of targeted risk-reduction efforts in the region, while also expanding the discourse on characterizing and assessing population dynamics in tourist-frequented areas.

Integrated risk management and communication: case study of Canton Vaud (Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artigue, Veronica; Aye, Zar Chi; Gerber, Christian; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2017-04-01

Canton Vaud's history is marked by events that remind us that any territory may have to cope with natural hazards such as devastating floods of the Baye and the Veraye rivers in Montreux (1927), the overflowing of the Rhône by dam failure (1935), the mud flow of Pissot (1995) and avalanches in the Prealps (1999). All of these examples have caused significant damage, and sometimes even fatalities, in the regions of Canton Vaud. In response to these new issues, the Swiss Confederation and the local authorities of the Canton decided to implement an integrated management policy of natural risks. The realization of natural hazards maps was the first step of the integrated management process. This work resulted in more than 10'000 maps and related documents for 94% of the municipalities of the Canton, covering 17% of its total surface. From this significant amount of data, the main issue is to propose a relevant communication and to build an integrated risk management structure. To make this available information relevant for end users, the implied teams worked to realize documents and tools for a better understanding of these data by all stakeholders. The first step of this process was to carry out a statistical and geographical analysis of hazard maps that allows identifying the most exposed areas to natural hazards. An atlas could thus be created. Then, continued under this framework, several topics have been discussed for each identified risk. The results show that 88 of 318 municipalities in Canton Vaud have at least a high hazard level on their territory, 108 with a moderate hazard level, 41 with a low level and 8 with a residual level. Only 73 of 318 municipalities remain with a minimum or zero hazard level. Concerning the type of hazard considered, 16% of the building zones are exposed to floods, 18% to mud flow, 16% to deep landslides, 14% to spontaneous surface landslides, 6% to rockfall, 55% to rock collapses and less than 5% to avalanches. As the national policies require to take into account the risk at the building scale, further analysis on the buildings have been made. 1'154 buildings are exposed to a high hazard level, while 8409, 21'130 and 14'980 buildings are exposed to a moderate, low and residual hazard level respectively. This paper addresses the complexity of the realization of the hazard map products of the Canton Vaud, particularly through the statistical analysis and the difficulties encountered for data availability and quality at the building scale. The authors highlight the necessary processes to build a robust communication for all the implied stakeholders of risk management in a dynamic and changing area through the example of the Canton Vaud.

Flood Insurance in Canada: Implications for Flood Management and Residential Vulnerability to Flood Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oulahen, Greg

2015-03-01

Insurance coverage of damage caused by overland flooding is currently not available to Canadian homeowners. As flood disaster losses and water damage claims both trend upward, insurers in Canada are considering offering residential flood coverage in order to properly underwrite the risk and extend their business. If private flood insurance is introduced in Canada, it will have implications for the current regime of public flood management and for residential vulnerability to flood hazards. This paper engages many of the competing issues surrounding the privatization of flood risk by addressing questions about whether flood insurance can be an effective tool in limiting exposure to the hazard and how it would exacerbate already unequal vulnerability. A case study investigates willingness to pay for flood insurance among residents in Metro Vancouver and how attitudes about insurance relate to other factors that determine residential vulnerability to flood hazards. Findings indicate that demand for flood insurance is part of a complex, dialectical set of determinants of vulnerability.

Vulnerability assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods using Remote Sensing and GIS in North Sikkim (India), Eastern Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aggarwal, Suruchi; Probha Devi, Juna; Thakur, Praveen Kumar; Rai, Suresh Chand

2016-04-01

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occur when glacier melt water dammed by a moraine is released in short time. Such floods may lead to disastrous events posing, therefore, a huge threat to human lives and infrastructure. A devastating GLOF in Uttarakhand, India, on 17 July 2013 has led to the loss of all villages in a stretch of 18 km downstream the lake and the loss of more than 5000 lives. The present study evaluates all 16 glacial lakes (with an area >0.1 km²) in the Thangu valley, northern Sikkim (India), eastern Himalaya, with respect to potential threats for the downstream areas. The hazard criteria for the study include slope, aspect and distance of the respective parent glacier, change in the lake area, dam characteristics and lake depth. For the most hazardous lakes, the socio-economic conditions in the downstream areas (settlements and infrastructure) are analysed regarding the impact of potential GLOFs. For the vulnerability analysis, we used various satellite products including LANDSAT, RESOUCESAT-1 and 2, RISAT-1 imageries and ASTER GDEM covering the period from 1977 to 2014. For lake mapping, we applied the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI). A Land Use Land Cover (LULC) map of the study area showing in-situ observations is serving as driving factor for the vulnerability analysis. The results of the study show that almost all evaluated glacial lakes were expanding during the study period (1977-2014). Combining the hazard criteria for the lakes, 5 of the 16 studied glacial lakes are identified as highly hazardous. In the downstream area, there are two villages with 200 inhabitants and an army camp within the zone of highest vulnerability. The identified vulnerability zones may be used by the local authorities to take caution of the threatened villages and infrastructure and for risk analysis for planned future hydropower plants.

A National Assessment of Changes in Flood Exposure in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, N.; Qiang, Y.; Cai, H.; Zou, L.

2017-12-01

Analyzing flood exposure and its temporal trend is the first step toward understanding flood risk, flood hazard, and flood vulnerability. This presentation is based on a national, county-based study assessing the changes in population and urban areas in high-risk flood zones from 2001-2011 in the contiguous United States. Satellite land use land cover data, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)'s 100-year flood maps, and census data were used to extract the proportion of developed (urban) land in flood zones by county in the two time points, and indices of difference were calculated. Local Moran's I statistic was applied to identify hotspots of increase in urban area in flood zones, and geographically weighted regression was used to estimate the population in flood zones from the land cover data. Results show that in 2011, an estimate of about 25.3 million people (8.3% of the total population) lived in the high-risk flood zones. Nationally, the ratio of urban development in flood zones is less than the ratio of land in flood zones, implying that Americans were responsive to flood hazards by avoiding development in flood zones. However, this trend varied from place to place, with coastal counties having less urban development in flood zones than the inland counties. Furthermore, the contrast between coastal and inland counties increased during 2001-2011. Finally, several exceptions from the trend (hotspots) were detected, most notably New York City and Miami where significant increases in urban development in flood zones were found. This assessment provides important baseline information on the spatial patterns of flood exposure and their changes from 2001-2011. The study pinpoints regions that may need further investigations and better policy to reduce the overall flood risks. Methodologically, the study demonstrates that pixelated land cover data can be integrated with other natural and human data to investigate important societal problems. The same methodology can be easily extended worldwide to assess the overall trend as well as identify hotspots that need further attention.

The need for sustained and integrated high-resolution mapping of dynamic coastal environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Lillycrop, Jeff W.; Howd, Peter A.; Wozencraft, Jennifer M.

2007-01-01

The evolution of the United States' coastal zone response to both human activities and natural processes is dynamic. Coastal resource and population protection requires understanding, in detail, the processes needed for change as well as the physical setting. Sustained coastal area mapping allows change to be documented and baseline conditions to be established, as well as future behavior to be predicted in conjunction with physical process models. Hyperspectral imagers and airborne lidars, as well as other recent mapping technology advances, allow rapid national scale land use information and high-resolution elevation data collection. Coastal hazard risk evaluation has critical dependence on these rich data sets. A fundamental storm surge model parameter in predicting flooding location, for example, is coastal elevation data, and a foundation in identifying the most vulnerable populations and resources is land use maps. A wealth of information for physical change process study, coastal resource and community management and protection, and coastal area hazard vulnerability determination, is available in a comprehensive national coastal mapping plan designed to take advantage of recent mapping technology progress and data distribution, management, and collection.

Unlocking the Full Potential of Earth Observation During the 2015 Texas Flood Disaster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schumann, G. J-P.; Frye, S.; Wells, G.; Adler, R.; Brakenridge, R.; Bolten, J.; Murray, J.; Slayback, D.; Policelli, F.; Kirschbaum, D.;

Unlocking the full potential of Earth observation during the 2015 Texas flood disaster

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, G. J.-P.; Frye, S.; Wells, G.; Adler, R.; Brakenridge, R.; Bolten, J.; Murray, J.; Slayback, D.; Policelli, F.; Kirschbaum, D.; Wu, H.; Cappelaere, P.; Howard, T.; Flamig, Z.; Clark, R.; Stough, T.; Chini, M.; Matgen, P.; Green, D.; Jones, B.

2016-05-01

Intense rainfall during late April and early May 2015 in Texas and Oklahoma led to widespread and sustained flooding in several river basins. Texas state agencies relevant to emergency response were activated when severe weather then ensued for 6 weeks from 8 May until 19 June following Tropical Storm Bill. An international team of scientists and flood response experts assembled and collaborated with decision-making authorities for user-driven high-resolution satellite acquisitions over the most critical areas; while experimental automated flood mapping techniques provided daily ongoing monitoring. This allowed mapping of flood inundation from an unprecedented number of spaceborne and airborne images. In fact, a total of 27,174 images have been ingested to the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System (HDDS) Explorer, except for the SAR images used. Based on the Texas flood use case, we describe the success of this effort as well as the limitations in fulfilling the needs of the decision-makers, and reflect upon these. In order to unlock the full potential for Earth observation data in flood disaster response, we suggest in a call for action (i) stronger collaboration from the onset between agencies, product developers, and decision-makers; (ii) quantification of uncertainties when combining data from different sources in order to augment information content; (iii) include a default role for the end-user in satellite acquisition planning; and (iv) proactive assimilation of methodologies and tools into the mandated agencies.

Detection and assessment of flood susceptible irrigation networks in Licab, Nueva Ecija, Philippines using LiDAR DTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alberto, R. T.; Hernando, P. J. C.; Tagaca, R. C.; Celestino, A. B.; Palado, G. C.; Camaso, E. E.; Damian, G. B.

2017-09-01

Climate change has wide-ranging effects on the environment and socio-economic and related sectors which includes water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial ecosystems, coastal zones and biodiversity. Farmers are under pressure to the changing weather and increasing unpredictable water supply. Because of rainfall deficiencies, artificial application of water has been made through irrigation. Irrigation is a basic determinant of agriculture because its inadequacies are the most powerful constraints on the increase of agricultural production. Irrigation networks are permanent and temporary conduits that supply water to agricultural areas from an irrigation source. Detection of irrigation networks using LiDAR DTM, and flood susceptible assessment of irrigation networks could give baseline information on the development and management of sustainable agriculture. Map Gully Depth (MGD) in Whitebox GAT was used to generate the potential irrigation networks. The extracted MGD was overlaid in ArcGIS as guide in the digitization of potential irrigation networks. A flood hazard map was also used to identify the flood susceptible irrigation networks in the study area. The study was assessed through field validation of points which were generated using random sampling method. Results of the study showed that most of the detected irrigation networks have low to moderate susceptibility to flooding while the rest have high susceptibility to flooding which is due to shifting weather. These irrigation networks may cause flood when it overflows that could also bring huge damage to rice and other agricultural areas.

Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, Cameron; Gutmann, Ethan; Jones, Russell; Rissing, Matthew; Mizukami, Naoki; Lorie, Mark; Mahoney, Hardee; Wood, Andrew W.; Mills, David; Martinich, Jeremy

2017-12-01

A growing body of work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus potentially increasing flood damages in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1 % annual exceedance probability (1 % AEP, or 100-year) flood events at 57 116 stream reaches across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches USD 4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long term in terms of reduced flood damages. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages on a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1 % AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results indicate that monetary damages from inland flooding could be significantly reduced through substantial GHG mitigation.

Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

2017-12-01

A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

Floods at Mount Clemens, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiitala, S.W.; Ash, Arlington D.

1962-01-01

The approximate areas inundated during the flood of April 5-6, 1947, by Clinton River, North Branch and Middle Branch of Clinton River, and Harrington Drain, in Clinton Township, Macomb County, Mich., are shown on a topographic map base to record the flood hazard in graphical form. The flood of April 1947 is the highest known since 1934 and probably since 1902. Greater floods are possible, but no attempt was made to define their probable overflow limits.The Clinton River Cut-Off Canal, a flood-relief channel which diverts flow directly into Lake St. Clair from a point about 1500 feet downstream from Gratiot Avenue (about 9 miles upstream from the mouth) has been in operation since October 1951. The approximate limits of overflow that would results from a flood equivalent in discharge to that of April 1947, and occurring with the Cut-Off Canal in operation, are also shown. Although the Cut-Off Canal may reduce the frequency and depth of flooding it will not necessarily eliminate future flooding in the area. Improvements and additions to the drainage systems in the basin, expanding urbanization, new highways, and other cultural changes may influence the inundation pattern of future floods.The preparation of this flood inundation map was financed through a cooperative agreement between Clinton Township, Macomb County, Mich., and the U.S. Geological Survey.Backwater curves used to define the profile for a hypothetical flood on the Clinton River downstream from Moravian Drive, equivalent in discharge to the 1947 flood, but occurring with the present Cut-Off Canal in operation; flood stage established at the gaging station on Clinton River at Mount Clemens; and supplementary floodmark elevations were furnished by the Corps of Engineers.Bench-mark elevations and field survey data, used in the analysis of floods on Harrington Drain, were furnished by the Macomb County Drain Commission.

38 CFR 36.4708 - Notice of special flood hazards and availability of Federal disaster relief assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Notice of special flood... of Payment, and Flood Insurance § 36.4708 Notice of special flood hazards and availability of Federal... a loan secured by a building or a mobile home located or to be located in a special flood hazard...

38 CFR 36.4705 - Required use of standard flood hazard determination form.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... flood hazard determination form. 36.4705 Section 36.4705 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS (CONTINUED) LOAN GUARANTY Sale of Loans, Guarantee of Payment, and Flood Insurance § 36.4705 Required use of standard flood hazard determination form. (a) Use of form. The Secretary...

Coastal Mapping for Baseline Geoscience Knowledge to Support Community Hazard Assessment and Sustainable Development, Eastern Baffin Island, Nunavut

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forbes, D. L.; Bell, T.; Campbell, D. C.; Cowan, B.; Deering, R. L.; Hatcher, S. V.; Hughes Clarke, J. E.; Irvine, M.; Manson, G. K.; Smith, I. R.; Edinger, E.

2015-12-01

Since 2012 we have carried out extensive multibeam bathymetric and backscatter surveys in coastal waters of eastern Baffin Island, supplemented by sub-bottom imaging and coring. Shore-zone surveys have been undertaken in proximity to the communities of Iqaluit and Qikiqtarjuaq, following earlier work in Clyde River. These support benthic habitat mapping, geological exploration, analysis of past and present sea-level trends, and assessment of coastal hazards relating to climate change and seabed instability. Outputs include a seamless topographic-bathymetric digital elevation model (DEM) of extensive boulder-strewn tidal flats in the large tidal-range setting at Iqaluit, supporting analysis of coastal flooding, wave run-up, and sea-ice impacts on a rapidly developing urban waterfront in the context of climate change. Seabed mapping of inner Frobisher Bay seaward of Iqaluit reveals a potential local tsunami hazard in widespread submarine slope failures, the triggers, magnitudes, and ages of which are the subject of ongoing research. In fjords of the Cumberland Peninsula, this project has mapped numerous submerged delta terraces at 19 to 45 m present water depth. These attest to an early postglacial submerged shoreline, displaced by glacial-isostatic adjustment. It rises linearly over a distance of 100 km east to west, where a submerged boulder barricade on a -16 m shoreline was discovered at a proposed port site in Broughton Channel near Qikiqtarjuaq. Palaeotopographic mapping using the multibeam data revealed an enclosed estuarine environment quite different from the present-day open passage swept by tidal currents. At Clyde River, combined seabed and onshore DEMs with geohazard mapping provided foundation data for community assessment and planning under a local knowledge co-production initiative. The geohazard work identified portions of the town-site more vulnerable to both coastal flooding and potential thaw subsidence, while the shallow delta terrace suggested a reversal from falling to rising relative sea levels. Overall, the coastal mapping results constitute baseline geoscience knowledge infrastructure for navigation, fisheries, port engineering, municipal planning, and informing sustainability initiatives in the isolated coastal communities of this Arctic region.

Nationwide high-resolution mapping of hazards in the Philippines (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco A.

2015-04-01

The Philippines being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Situated in a region where severe weather and geophysical unrest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. Recently, the Philippines put in place a responsive program called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) for disaster prevention and mitigation. The efforts of Project NOAH are an offshoot of lessons learned from previous disasters that have inflicted massive loss of lives and costly damage to property. Several components of the NOAH program focus on mapping of landslide, riverine flood and storm surge inundation hazards. By simulating hazards phenomena over IFSAR- and LiDAR-derived digital terrain models (DTMs) using high-performance computers, multi-hazards maps of 1:10,000 scale, have been produced and disseminated to local government units through a variety of platforms. These detailed village-level (barangay-level) maps are useful to identify safe evacuation sites, planning emergency access routes and prepositioning of search and rescue and relief supplies during times of crises. They are also essential for long-term development planning of communities. In the past two years, NOAH was instrumental in providing timely, site-specific, and understandable hazards information to the public, considered as best practice in disaster risk reduction management (DRR). The use of advanced science and technology in the country's disaster prevention efforts is imperative to successfully mitigate the adverse impacts of natural hazards and should be a continuous quest - to find the best products, put forth in the forefront of battle against disasters.

Collaborative GIS for flood susceptibility mapping: An example from Mekong river basin of Viet Nam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thanh, B.

2016-12-01

Flooding is one of the most dangerous natural disasters in Vietnam. Floods have caused serious damages to people and made adverse impact on social economic development across the country, especially in lower river basin where there is high risk of flooding as consequences of the climate change and social activities. This paper presents a collaborative platform of a combination of an interactive web-GIS framework and a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) tool. MCE is carried out in server side through web interface, in which parameters used for evaluation are groups into three major categories, including (1) climatic factor: precipitation, typhoon frequency, temperature, humidity (2) physiographic data: DEM, topographic wetness index, NDVI, stream power index, soil texture, distance to river (3) social factor: NDBI, land use pattern. Web-based GIS is based on open-source technology that includes an information page, a page for MCE tool that users can interactively alter parameters in flood susceptible mapping, and a discussion page. The system is designed for local participation in prediction of the flood risk magnitude under impacts of natural processes and human intervention. The proposed flood susceptibility assessment prototype was implemented in the Mekong river basin, Viet Nam. Index images were calculated using Landsat data, and other were collected from authorized agencies. This study shows the potential to combine web-GIS and spatial analysis tool to flood hazard risk assessment. The combination can be a supportive solution that potentially assists the interaction between stakeholders in information exchange and in disaster management, thus provides for better analysis, control and decision-making.

12 CFR Appendix to Part 760 - Sample Form of Notice of Special Flood Hazards and Availability of Federal Disaster Relief...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... HAZARDS Pt. 760, App. Appendix to Part 760—Sample Form of Notice of Special Flood Hazards and Availability... purchase flood insurance. The flood insurance must be maintained for the life of the loan. If you fail to purchase or renew flood insurance on the property, Federal law authorizes and requires us to purchase the...

12 CFR Appendix to Part 760 - Sample Form of Notice of Special Flood Hazards and Availability of Federal Disaster Relief...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... HAZARDS Pt. 760, App. Appendix to Part 760—Sample Form of Notice of Special Flood Hazards and Availability... purchase flood insurance. The flood insurance must be maintained for the life of the loan. If you fail to purchase or renew flood insurance on the property, Federal law authorizes and requires us to purchase the...

Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool for the identification of hotspots along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaroli, Clara; Duo, Enrico; Ciavola, Paolo

2017-04-01

The Emilia-Romagna coastline is located in northern Italy, facing the Adriatic sea. The area is especially exposed to the flooding hazard because of its low lying nature, high urbanisation and the large exploitation of beach resources for tourism. The identification of hotspots where marine flooding can cause significant damages is, therefore, a key issue. The methodology implemented to identify hotspots is based on the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool that was developed in the RISC-KIT project (www.risckit.eu). The tool combines the hazard component with different exposure indicators and is applied along predefined coastal sectors of almost 1 Km alongshore length. The coastline was divided into 106 sectors in which each component was analysed. The hazard part was evaluated through the computation of maximum water levels, obtained as the sum of wave set-up, storm surge and tide, calculated along representative beach profiles, one per sector, and for two return periods (10 and 100 years). The data for the computation of the maximum water level were extracted from the literature. The landward extension of flood-prone areas in each sector was the extension of the flood maps produced by the regional authorities for the EU Flood Directive and for the same return periods. The exposure indicators were evaluated taking into account the location and type of different assets in each sector and in flood-prone areas. Specifically, the assets that were taken into account are: the transport network, the utilities (water, gas and electricity) networks, the land use typologies, the social vulnerability status of the population and the business sector. Each component was then ranked from 1 to 5, considering a scale based on their computed value (hazard), importance and location (exposure indicators). A final coastal index (CI) was computed as the root mean square of the geometrical mean of the exposure indicators multiplied by the hazard indicator. Land use typologies were valued taking into account a classification produced by the regional authorities for the Flood Directive. The social vulnerability status of the population was derived from data produced by the National Statistic Institute. The regional managers provided the location of transport and utilities networks. The business indicator was built considering the tourist arrivals in each coastal municipality compared to the total number of arrivals. The results showed that the coast is very exposed to flooding and that the 100 year return period event leads to the identification of a large number of hotspots (65 over 106) defined as sectors with CI > 2.5. The main drivers for the hotspot identification were the hazard indicator and the land use typologies, because important transport/utilities network are not located in flood-prone areas. The most critical sectors are situated in the central-southern part of the coastline, where the most attractive tourist facilities are located and where the coastal corridor is occupied by a continuous urbanisation.

7 CFR 1980.433 - Flood or mudslide hazard area precautions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Flood or mudslide hazard area precautions. 1980.433... Program § 1980.433 Flood or mudslide hazard area precautions. (See subpart A, § 1980.42.) Administrative The State Director is responsible for determining if a project is located in a special flood or...

76 FR 37893 - Loans in Areas Having Special Flood Hazards

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-28

... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Office of Thrift Supervision Loans in Areas Having Special Flood...: Loans in Areas Having Special Flood Hazards. OMB Number: 1550-0088. Form Number: N/A. Description: The... property that is to secure a loan is located in a special flood hazard area, to notify a prospective...

Evaluating the benefits of risk prevention initiatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, G.

2012-04-01

The likelihood and adverse impacts of water-related disasters, such as floods and landslides, are increasing in many countries because of changes in climate and land-use. This presentation illustrates some preliminary results of a comprehensive demonstration of the benefits of risk prevention measures, carried out within the European FP7 KULTURisk project. The study is performed by using a variety of case studies characterised by diverse socio-economic contexts, different types of water-related hazards (floods, debris flows and landslides, storm surges) and space-time scales. In particular, the benefits of state-of-the-art prevention initiatives, such as early warning systems, non-structural options (e.g. mapping and planning), risk transfer strategies (e.g. insurance policy), and structural measures, are showed. Lastly, the importance of homogenising criteria to create hazard inventories and build memory, efficient risk communication and warning methods as well as active dialogue with and between public and private stakeholders, is highlighted.

Assessment and Prediction of Natural Hazards from Satellite Imagery

PubMed Central

Gillespie, Thomas W.; Chu, Jasmine; Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Thomas, Duncan

2013-01-01

Since 2000, there have been a number of spaceborne satellites that have changed the way we assess and predict natural hazards. These satellites are able to quantify physical geographic phenomena associated with the movements of the earth’s surface (earthquakes, mass movements), water (floods, tsunamis, storms), and fire (wildfires). Most of these satellites contain active or passive sensors that can be utilized by the scientific community for the remote sensing of natural hazards over a number of spatial and temporal scales. The most useful satellite imagery for the assessment of earthquake damage comes from high-resolution (0.6 m to 1 m pixel size) passive sensors and moderate resolution active sensors that can quantify the vertical and horizontal movement of the earth’s surface. High-resolution passive sensors have been used to successfully assess flood damage while predictive maps of flood vulnerability areas are possible based on physical variables collected from passive and active sensors. Recent moderate resolution sensors are able to provide near real time data on fires and provide quantitative data used in fire behavior models. Limitations currently exist due to atmospheric interference, pixel resolution, and revisit times. However, a number of new microsatellites and constellations of satellites will be launched in the next five years that contain increased resolution (0.5 m to 1 m pixel resolution for active sensors) and revisit times (daily ≤ 2.5 m resolution images from passive sensors) that will significantly improve our ability to assess and predict natural hazards from space. PMID:25170186

Social sensing of floods in the UK

PubMed Central

Williams, Hywel T. P.

2018-01-01

“Social sensing” is a form of crowd-sourcing that involves systematic analysis of digital communications to detect real-world events. Here we consider the use of social sensing for observing natural hazards. In particular, we present a case study that uses data from a popular social media platform (Twitter) to detect and locate flood events in the UK. In order to improve data quality we apply a number of filters (timezone, simple text filters and a naive Bayes ‘relevance’ filter) to the data. We then use place names in the user profile and message text to infer the location of the tweets. These two steps remove most of the irrelevant tweets and yield orders of magnitude more located tweets than we have by relying on geo-tagged data. We demonstrate that high resolution social sensing of floods is feasible and we can produce high-quality historical and real-time maps of floods using Twitter. PMID:29385132

Social sensing of floods in the UK.

PubMed

Arthur, Rudy; Boulton, Chris A; Shotton, Humphrey; Williams, Hywel T P

2018-01-01

"Social sensing" is a form of crowd-sourcing that involves systematic analysis of digital communications to detect real-world events. Here we consider the use of social sensing for observing natural hazards. In particular, we present a case study that uses data from a popular social media platform (Twitter) to detect and locate flood events in the UK. In order to improve data quality we apply a number of filters (timezone, simple text filters and a naive Bayes 'relevance' filter) to the data. We then use place names in the user profile and message text to infer the location of the tweets. These two steps remove most of the irrelevant tweets and yield orders of magnitude more located tweets than we have by relying on geo-tagged data. We demonstrate that high resolution social sensing of floods is feasible and we can produce high-quality historical and real-time maps of floods using Twitter.

Multi-dimensional perspectives of flood risk - using a participatory framework to develop new approaches to flood risk communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rollason, Edward; Bracken, Louise; Hardy, Richard; Large, Andy

2017-04-01

Flooding is a major hazard across Europe which, since, 1998 has caused over €52 million in damages and displaced over half a million people. Climate change is predicted to increase the risks posed by flooding in the future. The 2007 EU Flood Directive cemented the use of flood risk maps as a central tool in understanding and communicating flood risk. Following recent flooding in England, an urgent need to integrate people living at risk from flooding into flood management approaches, encouraging flood resilience and the up-take of resilient activities has been acknowledged. The effective communication of flood risk information plays a major role in allowing those at risk to make effective decisions about flood risk and increase their resilience, however, there are emerging concerns over the effectiveness of current approaches. The research presented explores current approaches to flood risk communication in England and the effectiveness of these methods in encouraging resilient actions before and during flooding events. The research also investigates how flood risk communications could be undertaken more effectively, using a novel participatory framework to integrate the perspectives of those living at risk. The research uses co-production between local communities and researchers in the environmental sciences, using a participatory framework to bring together local knowledge of flood risk and flood communications. Using a local competency group, the research explores what those living at risk from flooding want from flood communications in order to develop new approaches to help those at risk understand and respond to floods. Suggestions for practice are refined by the communities to co-produce recommendations. The research finds that current approaches to real-time flood risk communication fail to forecast the significance of predicted floods, whilst flood maps lack detailed information about how floods occur, or use scientific terminology which people at risk find confusing or lacking in realistic grounding. This means users do not have information they find useful to make informed decisions about how to prepare for and respond to floods. Working together with at-risk participants, the research has developed new approaches for communicating flood risk. These approaches focus on understanding flood mechanisms and dynamics, to help participants imagine their flood risk and link potential scenarios to reality, and provide forecasts of predicted flooding at a variety of scales, allowing participants to assess the significance of predicted flooding and make more informed judgments on what action to take in response. The findings presented have significant implications for the way in which flood risk is communicated, changing the focus of mapping from probabilistic future scenarios to understanding flood dynamics and mechanisms. Such ways of communicating flood risk embrace how people would like to see risk communicated, and help those at risk grow their resilience. Communicating in such a way has wider implications for flood modelling and data collection. However, these represent potential opportunities to build more effective local partnerships for assessing and managing flood risks.

Supervised classification of aerial imagery and multi-source data fusion for flood assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sava, E.; Harding, L.; Cervone, G.

2015-12-01

Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards and the ability to produce an accurate and timely flood assessment before, during, and after an event is critical for their mitigation and response. Remote sensing technologies have become the de-facto approach for observing the Earth and its environment. However, satellite remote sensing data are not always available. For these reasons, it is crucial to develop new techniques in order to produce flood assessments during and after an event. Recent advancements in data fusion techniques of remote sensing with near real time heterogeneous datasets have allowed emergency responders to more efficiently extract increasingly precise and relevant knowledge from the available information. This research presents a fusion technique using satellite remote sensing imagery coupled with non-authoritative data such as Civil Air Patrol (CAP) and tweets. A new computational methodology is proposed based on machine learning algorithms to automatically identify water pixels in CAP imagery. Specifically, wavelet transformations are paired with multiple classifiers, run in parallel, to build models discriminating water and non-water regions. The learned classification models are first tested against a set of control cases, and then used to automatically classify each image separately. A measure of uncertainty is computed for each pixel in an image proportional to the number of models classifying the pixel as water. Geo-tagged tweets are continuously harvested and stored on a MongoDB and queried in real time. They are fused with CAP classified data, and with satellite remote sensing derived flood extent results to produce comprehensive flood assessment maps. The final maps are then compared with FEMA generated flood extents to assess their accuracy. The proposed methodology is applied on two test cases, relative to the 2013 floods in Boulder CO, and the 2015 floods in Texas.

Hurricane coastal flood analysis using multispectral spectral images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogashawara, I.; Ferreira, C.; Curtarelli, M. P.

2013-12-01

Flooding is one of the main hazards caused by extreme events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Therefore, flood maps are a crucial tool to support policy makers, environmental managers and other government agencies for emergency management, disaster recovery and risk reduction planning. However traditional flood mapping methods rely heavily on the interpolation of hydrodynamic models results, and most recently, the extensive collection of field data. These methods are time-consuming, labor intensive, and costly. Efficient and fast response alternative methods should be developed in order to improve flood mapping, and remote sensing has been proved as a valuable tool for this application. Our goal in this paper is to introduce a novel technique based on spectral analysis in order to aggregate knowledge and information to map coastal flood areas. For this purpose we used the Normalized Diference Water Index (NDWI) which was derived from two the medium resolution LANDSAT/TM 5 surface reflectance product from the LANDSAT climate data record (CDR). This product is generated from specialized software called Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS). We used the surface reflectance products acquired before and after the passage of Hurricane Ike for East Texas in September of 2008. We used as end member a classification of estimated flooded area based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) mobile storm surge network that was deployed for Hurricane Ike. We used a dataset which consisted of 59 water levels recording stations. The estimated flooded area was delineated interpolating the maximum surge in each location using a spline with barriers method with high tension and a 30 meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the National Elevation Dataset (NED). Our results showed that, in the flooded area, the NDWI values decreased after the hurricane landfall on average from 0.38 to 0.18 and the median value decreased from 0.36 to 0.2. However for the non-flooded area the NDWI increased after the hurricane landfall. The average value varied from 0.15 to 0.43 and the median value from 0.13 to 0.43. These results demonstrate that these differences can be explored for the mapping of flood areas. As NDWI was developed to quantify the amount of water in the leaf of the plants, the increase of the value is expected within the amount of water that the leaf will absorb. However in flooded areas the amount of water is so high that it is possible that the reflectance follows the water spectral behavior absorbing more than reflecting in the Near Infrared region. Thus, remote sensing techniques showed to be powerful tools since they could characterize flooded areas. However further studies are needed, applying and validating these techniques for other regions and different storms. Optical remote sensing is promising for many applications, since it will be an open door to studies of spatial and temporal analysis of the flood impacts mainly in areas with remote access and with a lack of in situ data.

Interconnected ponds operation for flood hazard distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putra, S. S.; Ridwan, B. W.

2016-05-01

The climatic anomaly, which comes with extreme rainfall, will increase the flood hazard in an area within a short period of time. The river capacity in discharging the flood is not continuous along the river stretch and sensitive to the flood peak. This paper contains the alternatives on how to locate the flood retention pond that are physically feasible to reduce the flood peak. The flood ponds were designed based on flood curve number criteria (TR-55, USDA) with the aim of rapid flood peak capturing and gradual flood retuning back to the river. As a case study, the hydrologic condition of upper Ciliwung river basin with several presumed flood pond locations was conceptually designed. A fundamental tank model that reproducing the operation of interconnected ponds was elaborated to achieve the designed flood discharge that will flows to the downstream area. The flood hazard distribution status, as the model performance criteria, will be computed within Ciliwung river reach in Manggarai Sluice Gate spot. The predicted hazard reduction with the operation of the interconnected retention area result had been bench marked with the normal flow condition.

Flood risk and cultural heritage: the case study of Florence (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Castelli, Fabio; Brugioni, Marcello; Franceschini, Serena; Mazzanti, Bernardo

2016-04-01

Cultural heritage plays a key role for communities in terms of both identity and economic value. It is often under serious threat by natural hazards, nevertheless, quantitative assessments of risk are quite uncommon. This work addresses the flood risk assessment to cultural heritage in an exemplary art city, which is Florence, Italy. The risk assessment method here adopted borrows the most common definition of flood risk as the product of hazard, vulnerability and exposure, with some necessary adjustments. The risk estimation is carried out at the building scale for the whole UNESCO site, which coincides with the historical centre of the city. A distinction in macro- and micro-damage categories has been made according to the vulnerability of the objects at risk. Two damage macro-categories are selected namely cultural buildings and contents. Cultural buildings are classified in damage micro-categories as churches/religious complexes, libraries/archives and museums. The damages to the contents are estimated for four micro-categories: paintings, sculptures, books/prints and goldsmith's art. Data from hydraulic simulations for different recurrence scenarios, historical reports of the devastating 1966 flood and the cultural heritage recognition sheets allow estimating and mapping the annual expected number of works of art lost in absence of risk mitigation strategies.

12 CFR 614.4955 - Notice of special flood hazards and availability of Federal disaster relief assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Notice of special flood hazards and... ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS Flood Insurance Requirements § 614.4955 Notice of special flood hazards and availability of Federal disaster relief assistance. (a) Notice requirement. When...

44 CFR 79.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION GRANTS § 79.1 Purpose. (a... the hazard mitigation grant programs made available under the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as... Repetitive Loss (SRL) and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) grant programs mitigate losses from floods...

44 CFR 79.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION GRANTS § 79.1 Purpose. (a... the hazard mitigation grant programs made available under the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as... Repetitive Loss (SRL) and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) grant programs mitigate losses from floods...

78 FR 43899 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-22

..., ``Flood Insurance.'') Dated: July 2, 2013. Roy E. Wright, Deputy Associate Administrator for Mitigation...] Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations AGENCY: Federal Emergency Management Agency, DHS. ACTION: Final notice. SUMMARY: New or modified Base (1% annual-chance) Flood Elevations (BFEs), base flood depths...

44 CFR 79.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION GRANTS § 79.1 Purpose. (a... the hazard mitigation grant programs made available under the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as... Repetitive Loss (SRL) and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) grant programs mitigate losses from floods...

44 CFR 79.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program FLOOD MITIGATION GRANTS § 79.1 Purpose. (a... the hazard mitigation grant programs made available under the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as... Repetitive Loss (SRL) and Flood Mitigation Assistance (FMA) grant programs mitigate losses from floods...

A framework for probabilistic pluvial flood nowcasting for urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ntegeka, Victor; Murla, Damian; Wang, Lipen; Foresti, Loris; Reyniers, Maarten; Delobbe, Laurent; Van Herk, Kristine; Van Ootegem, Luc; Willems, Patrick

2016-04-01

Pluvial flood nowcasting is gaining ground not least because of the advancements in rainfall forecasting schemes. Short-term forecasts and applications have benefited from the availability of such forecasts with high resolution in space (~1km) and time (~5min). In this regard, it is vital to evaluate the potential of nowcasting products for urban inundation applications. One of the most advanced Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) techniques is the Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System, which was originally co-developed by the UK Met Office and Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The scheme was further tuned to better estimate extreme and moderate events for the Belgian area (STEPS-BE). Against this backdrop, a probabilistic framework has been developed that consists of: (1) rainfall nowcasts; (2) sewer hydraulic model; (3) flood damage estimation; and (4) urban inundation risk mapping. STEPS-BE forecasts are provided at high resolution (1km/5min) with 20 ensemble members with a lead time of up to 2 hours using a 4 C-band radar composite as input. Forecasts' verification was performed over the cities of Leuven and Ghent and biases were found to be small. The hydraulic model consists of the 1D sewer network and an innovative 'nested' 2D surface model to model 2D urban surface inundations at high resolution. The surface components are categorized into three groups and each group is modelled using triangular meshes at different resolutions; these include streets (3.75 - 15 m2), high flood hazard areas (12.5 - 50 m2) and low flood hazard areas (75 - 300 m2). Functions describing urban flood damage and social consequences were empirically derived based on questionnaires to people in the region that were recently affected by sewer floods. Probabilistic urban flood risk maps were prepared based on spatial interpolation techniques of flood inundation. The method has been implemented and tested for the villages Oostakker and Sint-Amandsberg, which are part of the larger city of Gent, Belgium. After each of the different above-mentioned components were evaluated, they were combined and tested for recent historical flood events. The rainfall nowcasting, hydraulic sewer and 2D inundation modelling and socio-economical flood risk results each could be partly evaluated: the rainfall nowcasting results based on radar data and rain gauges; the hydraulic sewer model results based on water level and discharge data at pumping stations; the 2D inundation modelling results based on limited data on some recent flood locations and inundation depths; the results for the socio-economical flood consequences of the most extreme events based on claims in the database of the national disaster agency. Different methods for visualization of the probabilistic inundation results are proposed and tested.

Flood and Landslide Applications of Near Real-time Satellite Rainfall Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Negri, Andrew; Huffman, George J.

2007-01-01

Floods and associated landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for tens of thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage every year. During 1993-2002, over 1000 of the more than 2,900 natural disasters reported were due to floods. These floods and associated landslides claimed over 90,000 lives, affected over 1.4 billion people and cost about $210 billion. The impact of these disasters is often felt most acutely in less developed regions. In many countries around the world, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to lack of surface observing networks. Satellite observations can be of essential value in improving our understanding of the occurrence of hazardous events and possibly in lessening their impact on local economies and in reducing injuries, if they can be used to create reliable warning systems in cost-effective ways. This article addressed these opportunities and challenges by describing a combination of satellite-based real-time precipitation estimation with land surface characteristics as input, with empirical and numerical models to map potential of landslides and floods. In this article, a framework to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events in near-real-time is proposed. Key components of the framework are: a fine resolution precipitation acquisition system; a comprehensive land surface database; a hydrological modeling component; and landslide and debris flow model components. A key precipitation input dataset for the integrated applications is the NASA TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation estimates. This dataset provides near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg. By careful integration of remote sensing and in-situ observations, and assimilation of these observations into hydrological and landslide/debris flow models with surface topographic information, prediction of useful probabilistic maps of landslide and floods for emergency management in a timely manner is possible. Early results shows that the potential exists for successful application of satellite precipitation data in improving/developing global monitoring systems for flood/landslide disaster preparedness and management. The scientific and technological prototype can be first applied in a representative test-bed and then the information deliverables for the region can be tailored to the societal and economic needs of the represented affected countries.

Interdisciplinary approach for disaster risk reduction in Valtellina Valley, northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Carolina; Blahut, Jan; Luna, Byron Quan; Poretti, Ilaria; Camera, Corrado; de Amicis, Mattia; Sterlacchini, Simone

2010-05-01

Inside the framework of the European research network Mountain Risks, an interdisciplinary research group has been working in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (northern Italy). This area has been continuously affected by several mountain hazards such as landslides, debris flows and floods that directly affect the population, and in some cases caused several deaths and million euros of losses. An aim of the interdisciplinary work in this study area, is to integrate different scientific products of the research group, in the areas of risk assessment, management and governance, in order to generate, among others, risk reduction tools addressed to general public and stakeholders. Two types of phenomena have been particularly investigated: debris flows and floods. The scientific products range from modeling to mapping of hazard and risk, emergency planning based on real time decision support systems, surveying for the evaluation of risk perception and preparedness, among others. Outputs from medium scale hazard and risk modeling could be used for decision makers and spatial planners as well as civil protection authorities to have a general overview of the area and indentify hot spots for further detailed analysis. Subsequently, local scale analysis is necessary to define possible events and risk scenarios for emergency planning. As for the modeling of past events and new scenarios of debris flows, physical outputs were used as inputs into physical vulnerability assessment and quantitative risk analysis within dynamic runout models. On a pilot zone, the physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability and different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated. For floods hazard assessment, different approaches and models are being tested, in order to produce flood maps for various return periods, and related to registered rainfalls. About Civil Protection topics, the main aim is to set up and manage contingency plans in advance; that is, to identify and prepare people in charge to take action to define the activities to be performed, to be aware of available resources and to optimize the communication system among the people involved, in order to efficiently face a prospective crisis phase. For this purpose, a real time emergency plan has been develop based GIS (Geographical Information Systems), DSS (Decision Support Systems), and ICT (Information & Communication Technology).

Evacuation planning for plausible worst case inundation scenarios in Honolulu, Hawaii.

PubMed

Kim, Karl; Pant, Pradip; Yamashita, Eric

2015-01-01

Honolulu is susceptible to coastal flooding hazards. Like other coastal cities, Honolulu&s long-term economic viability and sustainability depends on how well it can adapt to changes in the natural and built environment. While there is a disagreement over the magnitude and extent of localized impacts associated with climate change, it is widely accepted that by 2100 there will be at least a meter in sea level rise (SLR) and an increase in extreme weather events. Increased exposure and vulnerabilities associated with urbanization and location of human activities in coastal areas warrants serious consideration by planners and policy makers. This article has three objectives. First, flooding due to the combined effects of SLR and episodic hydro-meteorological and geophysical events in Honolulu are investigated and the risks to the community are quantified. Second, the risks and vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure and the surface transportation system are described. Third, using the travel demand software, travel distances and travel times for evacuation from inundated areas are modeled. Data from three inundation models were used. The first model simulated storm surge from a category 4 hurricane similar to Hurricane Iniki which devastated the island of Kauai in 1992. The second model estimates inundation based on five tsunamis that struck Hawaii. A 1-m increase in sea level was included in both the hurricane storm surge and tsunami flooding models. The third model used in this article generated a 500-year flood event due to riverine flooding. Using a uniform grid cell structure, the three inundation maps were used to assess the worst case flooding scenario. Based on the flood depths, the ruling hazard (hurricane, tsunami, or riverine flooding) for each grid cell was determined. The hazard layer was analyzed with socioeconomic data layers to determine the impact on vulnerable populations, economic activity, and critical infrastructure. The analysis focused both on evacuation needs and the critical elements of the infrastructure system that are needed to ensure effective response and recovery in the advent of flooding. This study shows that the coastal flooding will seriously affect the economy and employment. Extreme flooding events could affect 38 percent of the freeways, 44 percent of the highways, 69 percent of the arterial roads, and 40 percent of the local streets in the area examined. Approximately 80 percent of the economy and 76 percent of the total employment in the urban core of Honolulu is exposed to flooding. Evacuation modeling, shelter accessibility, and travel time to shelter analyses revealed that there is a significant shortage in sheltering options, as well as increases in travel times and distances as inundation depth increases. The findings are useful for evacuation and shelter planning for extreme coastal events, as well as for climate change adaptation planning in Honolulu. Recommendations for emergency responders as well as those interested in the integration of long-term SLR and low probability, high consequence coastal hazards are included. The study shows how to integrate travel demand modeling across multiple hazards and threats related to evacuating, sheltering, and disaster risk reduction.

Modeling a glacial lake outburst flood process chain: the case of Lake Palcacocha and Huaraz, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somos-Valenzuela, Marcelo A.; Chisolm, Rachel E.; Rivas, Denny S.; Portocarrero, Cesar; McKinney, Daene C.

2016-07-01

One of the consequences of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, is the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) from lakes that have formed at the base of retreating glaciers. GLOFs are often triggered by avalanches falling into glacial lakes, initiating a chain of processes that may culminate in significant inundation and destruction downstream. This paper presents simulations of all of the processes involved in a potential GLOF originating from Lake Palcacocha, the source of a previously catastrophic GLOF on 13 December 1941, killing about 1800 people in the city of Huaraz, Peru. The chain of processes simulated here includes (1) avalanches above the lake; (2) lake dynamics resulting from the avalanche impact, including wave generation, propagation, and run-up across lakes; (3) terminal moraine overtopping and dynamic moraine erosion simulations to determine the possibility of breaching; (4) flood propagation along downstream valleys; and (5) inundation of populated areas. The results of each process feed into simulations of subsequent processes in the chain, finally resulting in estimates of inundation in the city of Huaraz. The results of the inundation simulations were converted into flood intensity and preliminary hazard maps (based on an intensity-likelihood matrix) that may be useful for city planning and regulation. Three avalanche events with volumes ranging from 0.5 to 3 × 106 m3 were simulated, and two scenarios of 15 and 30 m lake lowering were simulated to assess the potential of mitigating the hazard level in Huaraz. For all three avalanche events, three-dimensional hydrodynamic models show large waves generated in the lake from the impact resulting in overtopping of the damming moraine. Despite very high discharge rates (up to 63.4 × 103 m3 s-1), the erosion from the overtopping wave did not result in failure of the damming moraine when simulated with a hydro-morphodynamic model using excessively conservative soil characteristics that provide very little erosion resistance. With the current lake level, all three avalanche events result in inundation in Huaraz due to wave overtopping, and the resulting preliminary hazard map shows a total affected area of 2.01 km2, most of which is in the high hazard category. Lowering the lake has the potential to reduce the affected area by up to 35 %, resulting in a smaller portion of the inundated area in the high hazard category.

Recent changes in flood damage in the United States from observations and ACME model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, G.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Despite efforts to mitigate flood hazards in flood-prone areas, survey- and report-based flood databases show that flood damage has increased and emerged as one of the most costly disaster in the United States since the 1990s. Understanding the mechanism driving the changes in flood damage is therefore critical for reducing flood risk. In this study, we first conduct a comprehensive analysis of the changing characteristics of flood damage at local, state and country level. Results show a significant increasing trend in the number of flood hazards, causing economic losses of up to $7 billion per year. The ratio of flood events that caused tangible economical cost to the total flood events has exhibited a non-significant increasing trend before 2007 followed by a significant decrease, indicating a changing vulnerability to floods. Analysis also reveals distinct spatial and temporal patterns in the threshold intensity of flood hazards with tangible economical cost. To understand the mechanism behind the increasing flood damage, we develop a flood damage economic model coupled with the integrated hydrological modeling system of ACME that features a river routing model with an inundation parameterization and a water use and regulation model. The model is evaluated over the country against historical records. Several numerical experiments are then designed to explore the mechanisms behind the recent changes in flood damage from the perspective of flood hazard, exposure and vulnerability, which constitute flood damage. The role of human activities such as reservoir operations and water use in modifying regional floods are also explored using the new tool, with the goal of improving understanding and modeling of vulnerability to flood hazards.

Prediction of Ungauged River Basin for Hydro Power Potential and Flood Risk Mitigation; a Case Study at Gin River, Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratnayake, A. S.

2011-12-01

The most of the primary civilizations of the world emerged in or near river valleys or floodplains. The river channels and floodplains are single hydrologic and geomorphic system. The failure to appreciate the integral connection between floodplains and channel underlies many socioeconomic and environmental problems in river management today. However it is a difficult task of collecting reliable field hydrological data. Under such situations either synthetic or statistically generated data were used for hydraulic engineering designing and flood modeling. The fundamentals of precipitation-runoff relationship through synthetic unit hydrograph for Gin River basin were prepared using the method of the Flood Studies Report of the National Environmental Research Council, United Kingdom (1975). The Triangular Irregular Network model was constructed using Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine hazard prone zones. The 1:10,000 and 1:50,000 topography maps and field excursions were also used for initial site selection of mini-hydro power units and determine flooding area. The turbines output power generations were calculated using the parameters of net head and efficiency of turbine. The peak discharge achieves within 4.74 hours from the onset of the rainstorm and 11.95 hours time takes to reach its normal discharge conditions of Gin River basin. Stream frequency of Gin River is 4.56 (Junctions/ km2) while the channel slope is 7.90 (m/km). The regional coefficient on the catchment is 0.00296. Higher stream frequency and gentle channel slope were recognized as the flood triggering factors of Gin River basin and other parameters such as basins catchment area, main stream length, standard average annual rainfall and soil do not show any significant variations with other catchments of Sri Lanka. The flood management process, including control of flood disaster, prepared for a flood, and minimize it impacts are complicated in human population encroached and modified floodplains. Thus modern GIS technology has been productively executed to prepare hazard maps based on the flood modeling and also it would be further utilized for disaster preparedness and mitigation activities. Five suitable hydraulic heads were recognized for mini-hydro power sites and it would be the most economical and applicable flood controlling hydraulic engineering structure considering all morphologic, climatic, environmental and socioeconomic proxies of the study area. Mini-hydro power sites also utilized as clean, eco friendly and reliable energy source (8630.0 kW). Finally Francis Turbine can be employed as the most efficiency turbine for the selected sites bearing in mind of both technical and economical parameters.

Flood risk analysis model in the village of St. George/Danube Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armas, I.; Dumitrascu, S.; Nistoran, D.

2009-04-01

River deltas may have been cradles for prehistoric civilizations (Day et al. 2007) and still represent favoured areas for human habitats on the basis of their high productivity, biodiversity and favourable economical conditions for river transport (Giosan and Bhattacharya 2005). In the same time, these regions are defined through their high vulnerability to environmental changes, being extremely susceptible to natural disasters, especially to floods. The Danube Delta, with an area of 5640 km2, is the largest ecosystem of the European humid zones. Its state reflects environmental conditions at both local and regional levels via liquid and solid parameters and has to ensure the water supply for the local economy and communities. Flooding of the delta is important for the dynamics of the entire natural system. Floods sustain both alluvial processes and the water supply to deltaic lakes. In addition, flooding frequency is important in flushing the deltaic lake system water, ensuring a normal evolution of both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. For human communities, on the other hand, floods are perceived as a risk factor, entailing material damage, human victims and psychological stress. In the perspective of risk assessment research, every populated place faces a certain risk engaged by a disaster, the size of which depends on the specific location, existent hazards, vulnerability and the number of elements at risk. Although natural hazards are currently a main subject of interest on a global scale, a unitary methodological approach has yet to be developed. In the general context of hazard analysis, there is the need to put more emphasis on the problem of the risk analysis. In most cases, it focuses only on an assessment of the probable material damage resulted from a specific risk scenario. Taking these matters into consideration, the aim of this study is to develop an efficient flood risk assessment methodology based on the example of the village of St. George in the Danube Delta. The study area is situated at the mouth of the St. George river branch, which suffered a series of interventions resulting with the shortening with 31 km (period 1984-1988). As a direct result, the medium speed of the water grew along with the both liquid and solid flows. In fact, this is only an example of the human activity that took place in the Danube Delta starting with the second half of the last century that influenced the hydrological system for a better use of the natural resources offered by the delta. The study is structured in two stages: the analysis of the hydrological hazard together with the simulation of a series of scenarios concerning floods at various flows and the risk analysis, expressed in the shape of the calculus of the material damage. In the study of the hazard, the methodology was based on the analysis of water depth and velocity maps, done in various flow scenarios, to which were added correlations between flood risk maps with satellite pictures, cadastral plans and field data by using GIS functions. In addition, the field investigations conducted in September 2008 focused on collecting the data necessary in the assessment of the buildings. The observations that synthesize the features of each construction included in the analysis were also stored in ArcGis in the shape of a table of attributes. This information reveals the indicators used in the analysis of the vulnerability of the residences: number of floors, height, construction type, infrastructure and price per property. The analysis revealed an increased degree of the area visibility, pointing out not only certain sectors affected by floods, but also the problems that occurred at the more detailed level of the residences. In addition, the cartographic material plays also an important part in the development of a proper public awareness strategy.

Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

2016-04-01

Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs according to the flooding season, cultivation type and the agro-climatic zone. The flood damage equivalence to constructions summed up to reach 32 M for residential structures, 29 M for non-residential structures, and 5 M for the Syrian refugees tents, while structures' content losses were estimated at 27M, 54M, 7 M respectively for the same flood frequency. The total length of affected road networks during flooding is 1589km with an estimated cost of 565M. The total number of affected population reached 82,000 while the number of effected vehicles is 62,000 for a 50year recurrence period

What can we learn from the deadly flash floods? Post Event Review Capability (PERC) analysis of the Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg flood events in Summer 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szoenyi, Michael

2017-04-01

In May/June 2016, stationary low pressure systems brought intense rainfall with record-braking intensities of well above 100 mm rain in few hours locally in the southern states of Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria, Germany. In steep terrains, small channels and creeks became devastating torrents impacting, among others, the villages of Simbach/Inn, Schwäbisch-Gmünd and Braunsbach. Just few days prior, France had also seen devastating rainfall and flooding. Damage in Germany alone is estimated at 2.8 M USD, of which less than 50% are insured. The loss of life was significant, with 18 fatalities reported across the events. This new forensic event analysis as part of Zurich's Post Event Review Capability (PERC) investigates the flash flood events following these record rainfalls in Southern Germany and tries to answer the following questions holistically, across the five capitals (5C) and the full disaster risk management (DRM) cycle, which are key to understanding how to become more resilient to such flood events: - Why have these intense rainfall events led to such devastating consequences? The EU Floods directive and its implementation in the various member states, as well as the 2002 and 2013 Germany floods, have focused on larger rivers and the main asset concentration. The pathway and mechanism of the 2016 floods are very different and need to be better understood. Flash floods and surface flooding may need to become the new focus and be much better communicated to people at risk, as the awareness for such perils has been identified as low. - How can the prevalence for such flash floods be better identified and mapped? Research indicated that affected people and decision makers alike attribute the occurrence of such flash floods as arbitrary, but we argue that hotspots can and must be identified based on an overlay of rainfall intensity maps, topography leading to flash flood processes, and vulnerable assets. In Germany, there are currently no comprehensive hazard maps for flash and/or surface flooding. - What recommendations can be made from the investigation of the consequences? We highlight how additional processes that cause significant damage, such as log jams, backwater increase, temporary dam formation, etc., are currently insufficiently understood and incorporated into decision-making. - What are the social and human long-term effects of such flash flood events, and how can the insights from this review be incorporated into future decision-making to better protect people and assets as part of integrated flood risk management?

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment: the Seaside, Oregon Pilot Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, F. I.; Geist, E. L.; Synolakis, C.; Titov, V. V.

2004-12-01

A pilot study of Seaside, Oregon is underway, to develop methodologies for probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments that can be incorporated into Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) developed by FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Current NFIP guidelines for tsunami hazard assessment rely on the science, technology and methodologies developed in the 1970s; although generally regarded as groundbreaking and state-of-the-art for its time, this approach is now superseded by modern methods that reflect substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades. In particular, post-1990 technical advances include: improvements in tsunami source specification; improved tsunami inundation models; better computational grids by virtue of improved bathymetric and topographic databases; a larger database of long-term paleoseismic and paleotsunami records and short-term, historical earthquake and tsunami records that can be exploited to develop improved probabilistic methodologies; better understanding of earthquake recurrence and probability models. The NOAA-led U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), in partnership with FEMA, USGS, NSF and Emergency Management and Geotechnical agencies of the five Pacific States, incorporates these advances into site-specific tsunami hazard assessments for coastal communities in Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington. NTHMP hazard assessment efforts currently focus on developing deterministic, "credible worst-case" scenarios that provide valuable guidance for hazard mitigation and emergency management. The NFIP focus, on the other hand, is on actuarial needs that require probabilistic hazard assessments such as those that characterize 100- and 500-year flooding events. There are clearly overlaps in NFIP and NTHMP objectives. NTHMP worst-case scenario assessments that include an estimated probability of occurrence could benefit the NFIP; NFIP probabilistic assessments of 100- and 500-yr events could benefit the NTHMP. The joint NFIP/NTHMP pilot study at Seaside, Oregon is organized into three closely related components: Probabilistic, Modeling, and Impact studies. Probabilistic studies (Geist, et al., this session) are led by the USGS and include the specification of near- and far-field seismic tsunami sources and their associated probabilities. Modeling studies (Titov, et al., this session) are led by NOAA and include the development and testing of a Seaside tsunami inundation model and an associated database of computed wave height and flow velocity fields. Impact studies (Synolakis, et al., this session) are led by USC and include the computation and analyses of indices for the categorization of hazard zones. The results of each component study will be integrated to produce a Seaside tsunami hazard map. This presentation will provide a brief overview of the project and an update on progress, while the above-referenced companion presentations will provide details on the methods used and the preliminary results obtained by each project component.

Flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for human life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, T.; Chang, T.; Lai, J.; Hsieh, M.; Tan, Y.; Lin, Y.

2011-12-01

Flood risk assessment is an important issue for the countries suffering tropical cyclones and monsoon. Taiwan is located in the hot zone of typhoon tracks in the Western Pacific. There are three to five typhoons landing Taiwan every year. Typhoons and heavy rainfalls often cause inundation disaster rising with the increase of population and the development of social economy. The purpose of this study is to carry out the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life. Based on the concept that flood risk is composed by flood hazard and vulnerability, a inundation simulation is performed to evaluate the factors of flood hazard for human life according to base flood (100-year return period). The flood depth, velocity and rising ratio are the three factors of flood hazards. Furthermore, the factors of flood vulnerability are identified in terms of human life that are classified into two main factors, residents and environment. The sub factors related to residents are the density of population and the density of vulnerable people including elders, youngers and disabled persons. The sub factors related to environment include the the number of building floors, the locations of buildings, the and distance to rescue center. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to determine the weights of these factors. The risk matrix is applied to show the risk from low to high based on the evaluation of flood hazards and vulnerabilities. The Tseng-Wen River watershed is selected as the case study because a serious flood was induced by Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2.361mm in 48 hours in the last 50 years. The results of assessing the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life could improve the emergency operation for flood disaster to prepare enough relief goods and materials during typhoon landing.

Flash-flood potential assessment and mapping by integrating the weights-of-evidence and frequency ratio statistical methods in GIS environment - case study: Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costache, Romulus; Zaharia, Liliana

2017-06-01

Given the significant worldwide human and economic losses caused due to floods annually, reducing the negative consequences of these hazards is a major concern in development strategies at different spatial scales. A basic step in flood risk management is identifying areas susceptible to flood occurrences. This paper proposes a methodology allowing the identification of areas with high potential of accelerated surface run-off and consequently, of flash-flood occurrences. The methodology involves assessment and mapping in GIS environment of flash flood potential index (FFPI), by integrating two statistical methods: frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence. The methodology was applied for Bâsca Chiojdului River catchment (340 km2), located in the Carpathians Curvature region (Romania). Firstly, the areas with torrential phenomena were identified and the main factors controlling the surface run-off were selected (in this study nine geographical factors were considered). Based on the features of the considered factors, many classes were set for each of them. In the next step, the weights of each class/category of the considered factors were determined, by identifying their spatial relationships with the presence or absence of torrential phenomena. Finally, the weights for each class/category of geographical factors were summarized in GIS, resulting the FFPI values for each of the two statistical methods. These values were divided into five classes of intensity and were mapped. The final results were used to estimate the flash-flood potential and also to identify the most susceptible areas to this phenomenon. Thus, the high and very high values of FFPI characterize more than one-third of the study catchment. The result validation was performed by (i) quantifying the rate of the number of pixels corresponding to the torrential phenomena considered for the study (training area) and for the results' testing (validating area) and (ii) plotting the ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curve.

Coastal Hazard Vulnerability Assessment: A Case Study of Erosion and Flooding on Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radosavljevic, B.; Lantuit, H.; Overduin, P. P.; Fritz, M.

2015-12-01

Coastal infrastructure, cultural, and archeological sites are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding along permafrost coasts. Amplified warming of the Arctic, sea level rise, lengthening of the open water period, and a predicted increase in frequency of major storms compound these threats. Mitigation necessitates decision-making tools at an appropriate scale. We present a study of coastal erosion combining it with a flooding risk assessment for the culturally important historic settlement on Herschel Island, a UNESCO World Heritage candidate site. The resulting map may help local stakeholders devise management strategies to cope with rapidly changing environmental conditions. We analyzed shoreline movement using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) after digitizing shorelines from 1952, 1970, and 2011. Using these data, forecasts of shoreline positions were made for 20 and 50 years into the future. Flooding risk was assessed using a cost-distance map based on a high-resolution Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) dataset and current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level estimates. Widespread erosion characterizes the study area. The rate of shoreline movement for different periods of the study ranges from -5.5 to 2.7 m·a-1 (mean -0.6 m·a-1). Mean coastal retreat decreased from -0.6 m·a-1 to -0.5 m·a-1, for 1952-1970 and 1970-2000, respectively, and increased to -1.3 m·a-1 in the period 2000-2011. Ice-rich coastal sections, and coastal sections most exposed to wave attack exhibited the highest rates of coastal retreat. The geohazard map resulting from shoreline projections and flood risk analysis indicates that most of the area occupied by the historic settlement is at extreme or very high risk of flooding, and some buildings are vulnerable to coastal erosion. The results of this study indicate a greater threat by coastal flooding than erosion. Our assessment may be applied in other locations where limited data are available.

Urban topography for flood modeling by fusion of OpenStreetMap, SRTM and local knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winsemius, Hessel; Donchyts, Gennadii; Eilander, Dirk; Chen, Jorik; Leskens, Anne; Coughlan, Erin; Mawanda, Shaban; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Luo, Tianyi; Iceland, Charles

2016-04-01

Topography data is essential for understanding and modeling of urban flood hazard. Within urban areas, much of the topography is defined by highly localized man-made features such as roads, channels, ditches, culverts and buildings. This results in the requirement that urban flood models require high resolution topography, and water conveying connections within the topography are considered. In recent years, more and more topography information is collected through LIDAR surveys however there are still many cities in the world where high resolution topography data is not available. Furthermore, information on connectivity is required for flood modelling, even when LIDAR data are used. In this contribution, we demonstrate how high resolution terrain data can be synthesized using a fusion between features in OpenStreetMap (OSM) data (including roads, culverts, channels and buildings) and existing low resolution and noisy SRTM elevation data using the Google Earth Engine platform. Our method uses typical existing OSM properties to estimate heights and topology associated with the features, and uses these to correct noise and burn features on top of the existing low resolution SRTM elevation data. The method has been setup in the Google Earth Engine platform so that local stakeholders and mapping teams can on-the-fly propose, include and visualize the effect of additional features and properties of features, which are deemed important for topography and water conveyance. These features can be included in a workshop environment. We pilot our tool over Dar Es Salaam.

Little Ice Age mapping as a tool for identifying hazard in the paraglacial environment: The case study of Trentino (Eastern Italian Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanoner, Thomas; Carton, Alberto; Seppi, Roberto; Carturan, Luca; Baroni, Carlo; Salvatore, Maria Cristina; Zumiani, Matteo

2017-10-01

The Little Ice Age (LIA) is a well-recognized climatic event during which the glaciers in the Alps advanced and reached their maximum Holocene extent. During their retreat following the LIA, the glaciers left large areas of loose or poorly consolidated glacial deposits in their forelands, which are subject to paraglacial reworking and may represent potential hazards for human infrastructures. In this study, we present a regional scale mapping of the LIA and post-LIA glacial deposits and a reconstruction of the maximum LIA extents of glaciers in the same area. This work is motivated by a local law requiring the classification of areas subject to natural hazards in Trentino (Italian Alps). Results highlight that glaciers shrunk by 63% from the LIA maximum, leaving 30 km2 of unconsolidated deposits, which are subject to geomorphic paraglacial processes. Potentially hazardous consequences can occur, in particular, during high-magnitude instantaneous events, causing debris and mud flows, mass wasting from debris-covered ice, and floods from small moraine-dammed lakes.

Natural hazard risk assessment and management in the Matter valley, Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herz, T.; King, L.; Philippi, S.

2003-04-01

The Matter valley has a length of about 40 km and is surrounded by some of the highest peaks of the Alps resulting in extreme altitudinal differences and a continental character of the climate. These climatic conditions cause a high glacier equilibrium line and therefore a periglacial belt of a large vertical extend. Due to the high relief energy, all kinds of natural hazards typical for high mountain environments occur. The steep western slopes are dominated by rockfalls, slope instabilities in bedrock and avalanches. A widespread cover of unconsolidated sediments on the eastern slopes induces landslides and debris flows, which often reach down to the valley bottom where they can dam up the river. Increasing population and modern land use forms required a more and more sensitive attitude towards natural hazard potentials in this endangered area. Assessment and management of natural hazard risks have been much improved during the last fifteen years and increasing amounts of money are spent each year in order to safeguard settlements, traffic lines, and other objects of the technical infrastructure. Numerous investigations concerning natural hazard risks have been made and the results are considered in the actual land use planning of the Canton. The planning law of the Canton Valais defines risk zones as areas, which are endangered by natural hazards like avalanches, rockfalls, landslides and floodings. Risk assessment is done by overview maps (scale 1:25,000) which are specified by detailed risk analyses consisting of registers and detailed maps (scale 1:2,000 to 1:10,000). These analyses are integrated in the land zoning by defining zones of high, medium and low danger, associated with corresponding prohibitions, restrictions and conditions for utilisation. At present, the incorporation of the avalanche and rockfall register in local zoning plans is completed in most communities of the Canton Valais. An additional inventory of 200 slope instabilities was elaborated and must be considered in present and future local zonation updates. However, zones threatened by floods are only indicated on maps of overview and no planning standards for the management of debris flow hazards exist so far. The Canton is currently carrying out numerous projects of active disaster prevention comprising measurements and constructional precautions against avalanches and slope instabilities as well as monitoring systems and early warning stations.

Social vulnerability in the flood-prone anthropogenic landscape of Northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roder, Giulia; Sofia, Giulia; Wu, Zhifeng; Tarolli, Paolo

2017-04-01

The practices for reducing the impacts of floods are becoming more and more advanced, centred to the communities and reached out to vulnerable populations. Vulnerable individuals are characterised by different social and economic attributes that can alter their capacity to cope with disaster events. The Social Vulnerability Index (Cutter et al. 2003) provides an empirical basis to compare social variances in different spatial scenarios and environmental threats. This methodology has been readjusted to the flood-prone anthropogenic landscape of Northern Italy adapted to the societal and historical construction of this area. In fact, the fifteen census variables used have been contextualised by examining the economic crisis, the modification of the labour force, the gendered life expectancy, the immigration among much more. At a general consideration, the unstable economic status, the population growth, age, and ethnicity are the major social attributes affecting the residents of the floodplain. The cluster analysis performed by the calculation of univariate LISA ratifies the spatial distribution of the index (Moran's I of 0.39 showing a positive correlation) finding the main high-high clusters in the Western and the outlet of the Po River basin. This basin includes one-third of the Italian population and this anthropogenic footprint has consistently modified the basin natural and geological environment (Carminati and Martinelli 2002) to the point that the hydraulic system will be dramatically altered in the future (Dankers and Feyen 2008). The spatial identification and the inclusion of vulnerable people into the risk management planning process have been widely discussed in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. For this reason, we analysed the flood risk resulting from the combination of high vulnerable areas with the highest flood hazard scenario. The hazard map, finalised in May 2015, has been provided by ISPRA Institute with a three-class flood probability distribution. Within the floodplain, it has been found that only 22 municipalities are located in a high-risk location: Lombardia (10; 12.5 %), Piemonte (9; 2.7 %) and Veneto (3; 10.7 %) region. These regions are the most economically competitive regions within the North of Italy with elevated levels of human-landscape interactions. Low scores of susceptibility coupled with high flood exposure areas (i.e. the Polesine region) need to be taken into account in flood reduction policies. For this reason, smallest areas can be used as macro-scale analysis with a municipality-scale subdivision to examine the societal characteristics of the community and their locations. This would benefit practitioners and managers to produce rapid flood emergency evaluations and focused land plans. Undeniably, social vulnerability and risk maps are only a part of the efforts needed to reduce the risk posed by environmental hazards. In fact, there is the need of a multi-stakeholder participation at all levels, from managers to politicians to plan, finance and finalise those actions aiming at empowering the most vulnerable people that live in flood-prone regions. Also, there is a need to stimulate researchers to contribute qualitatively to quantitative researches as documented by the EU Flood Directive 2007/60/EC. References: Carminati, E., and G. Martinelli, 2002: Subsidence rates in the Po Plain, northern Italy: The relative impact of natural and anthropogenic causation. Eng. Geol., 66, 241-255, doi:10.1016/S0013-7952(02)00031-5. Cutter, S., B. Boruff, and W. Shirley, 2003: Social vulnerability to environmental hazards. Soc. Sci. Q., 84, 242-261, doi:10.1111/1540-6237.8402002. Dankers, R., and L. Feyen, 2008: Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 113, 1-17, doi:10.1029/2007JD009719. ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale), 2015: Geoportale ISPRA Ambiente. Accesso alla cartografia. http://geoportale.isprambiente.it. (Italian) The European Parliament and the Council of the European Union. Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks. Off. J. Eur. Union 2007, L288-27

Evaluation of multiple hydraulic models in generating design/near-real time flood inundation extents under various geophysical settings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Z.; Rajib, M. A.; Jafarzadegan, K.; Merwade, V.

2015-12-01

Application of land surface/hydrologic models within an operational flood forecasting system can provide probable time of occurrence and magnitude of streamflow at specific locations along a stream. Creating time-varying spatial extent of flood inundation and depth requires the use of a hydraulic or hydrodynamic model. Models differ in representing river geometry and surface roughness which can lead to different output depending on the particular model being used. The result from a single hydraulic model provides just one possible realization of the flood extent without capturing the uncertainty associated with the input or the model parameters. The objective of this study is to compare multiple hydraulic models toward generating ensemble flood inundation extents. Specifically, relative performances of four hydraulic models, including AutoRoute, HEC-RAS, HEC-RAS 2D, and LISFLOOD are evaluated under different geophysical conditions in several locations across the United States. By using streamflow output from the same hydrologic model (SWAT in this case), hydraulic simulations are conducted for three configurations: (i) hindcasting mode by using past observed weather data at daily time scale in which models are being calibrated against USGS streamflow observations, (ii) validation mode using near real-time weather data at sub-daily time scale, and (iii) design mode with extreme streamflow data having specific return periods. Model generated inundation maps for observed flood events both from hindcasting and validation modes are compared with remotely sensed images, whereas the design mode outcomes are compared with corresponding FEMA generated flood hazard maps. The comparisons presented here will give insights on probable model-specific nature of biases and their relative advantages/disadvantages as components of an operational flood forecasting system.

Effects of risk communication on natural hazards on real estate owners' risk perception and risk behaviour

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchecker, M.; Maidl, E.

2012-04-01

In the last decade, in most of the European countries risk maps on natural hazards have been elaborated but there is so far little experience how to efficiently communicate these maps to the public. Recently, the public authorities of Zurich informed the owners of buildings located within the hazard zone on urban flood risks The owners received official letters containing information on potential danger, the probability of flood events, constructional safety measures, and guidelines for appropriate actions in case of an immediate flood. In the cover letter they were also encouraged to achieve more detailed information about the particular risks for their building using an online accessible risk map within a geographic information system (GIS). This risk communication campaign was based on the expectation that informing citizens increases their risk awareness and that citizens aware of risks are more likely to undertake actions to protect themselves and their property. There is, however, little empirical evidence that these expected outcomes can be achieved by written forms of risk communication. With this project we aim to find out to which degree a campaign of written risk communication can shape land owners risk perception and risk behaviour, and which other factors (e.g. trust in authorities, risk, risk zone category of the building) contributed to these outcomes... In collaboration with public authorities we conducted a survey among 1500 owners of buildings in the hazard zones in Zurich (50 % in blue zone, 50 % in yellow and yellow-white zone), that is 14% of all persons who were addressed by the authorities of the city. The standardized questionnaire comprises in particular items measuring respondents' evaluation of the virtual and physical information material, the time they spent for studying the information material, the dimensions of their risk perception, their acceptability of risks and their preparedness to implement constructional and other safety measures. The return rate achieved about 20 %. The data were analysed using multivariate statistics. The analysis of the data revealed that most of the real estate owners respond spent only very little time for studying the flood risk information. It, however, confirmed that respondents' interest in the subject and their efforts and time spent to study the information material strongly correlated with their willingness to undertake preventive actions. The results provide also insights on additional factors that influence citizens' preparedness to implement safety measures. For instance, respondents who consider the distribution of responsibility between the public and private sphere to be rather unjust, are less motivated to take measures. The results will be discussed and implication for practice and future research will be drawn.

Hazard Experience, Geophysical Vulnerability, and Flood Risk Perceptions in a Postdisaster City, the Case of New Orleans.

PubMed

Gotham, Kevin Fox; Campanella, Richard; Lauve-Moon, Katie; Powers, Bradford

2018-02-01

This article investigates the determinants of flood risk perceptions in New Orleans, Louisiana (United States), a deltaic coastal city highly vulnerable to seasonal nuisance flooding and hurricane-induced deluges and storm surges. Few studies have investigated the influence of hazard experience, geophysical vulnerability (hazard proximity), and risk perceptions in cities undergoing postdisaster recovery and rebuilding. We use ordinal logistic regression techniques to analyze experiential, geophysical, and sociodemographic variables derived from a survey of 384 residents in seven neighborhoods. We find that residents living in neighborhoods that flooded during Hurricane Katrina exhibit higher levels of perceived risk than those residents living in neighborhoods that did not flood. In addition, findings suggest that flood risk perception is positively associated with female gender, lower income, and direct flood experiences. In conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for theoretical and empirical research on environmental risk, flood risk communication strategies, and flood hazards planning. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Dissemination of satellite-based river discharge and flood data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettner, A. J.; Brakenridge, G. R.; van Praag, E.; de Groeve, T.; Slayback, D. A.; Cohen, S.

2014-12-01

In collaboration with NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center and the European Commission Joint Research Centre, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) daily measures and distributes: 1) river discharges, and 2) near real-time flood extents with a global coverage. Satellite-based passive microwave sensors and hydrological modeling are utilized to establish 'remote-sensing based discharge stations', and observed time series cover 1998 to the present. The advantages over in-situ gauged discharges are: a) easy access to remote or due to political reasons isolated locations, b) relatively low maintenance costs to maintain a continuous observational record, and c) the capability to obtain measurements during floods, hazardous conditions that often impair or destroy in-situ stations. Two MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites provide global flood extent coverage at a spatial resolution of 250m. Cloud cover hampers flood extent detection; therefore we ingest 6 images (the Terra and Aqua images of each day, for three days), in combination with a cloud shadow filter, to provide daily global flood extent updates. The Flood Observatory has always made it a high priority to visualize and share its data and products through its website. Recent collaborative efforts with e.g. GeoSUR have enhanced accessibility of DFO data. A web map service has been implemented to automatically disseminate geo-referenced flood extent products into client-side GIS software. For example, for Latin America and the Caribbean region, the GeoSUR portal now displays current flood extent maps, which can be integrated and visualized with other relevant geographical data. Furthermore, the flood state of satellite-observed river discharge sites are displayed through the portal as well. Additional efforts include implementing Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards to incorporate Water Markup Language (WaterML) data exchange mechanisms to further facilitate the distribution of the satellite gauged river discharge time series.

Comparative hazard analysis of processes leading to remarkable flash floods (France, 1930-1999)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudou, M.; Lang, M.; Vinet, F.; Cœur, D.

2016-10-01

Flash flood events are responsible for large economic losses and lead to fatalities every year in France. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean and oversea territories/departments of France, characterized by extreme hydro-climatological features and with a large part of the population exposed to flood risks. The recurrence of remarkable flash flood events, associated with high hazard intensity, significant damage and socio-political consequences, therefore raises several issues for authorities and risk management policies. This study aims to improve our understanding of the hazard analysis process in the case of four remarkable flood events: March 1930, October 1940, January 1980 and November 1999. Firstly, we present the methodology used to define the remarkability score of a flood event. Then, to identify the factors leading to a remarkable flood event, we explore the main parameters of the hazard analysis process, such as the meteorological triggering conditions, the return period of the rainfall and peak discharge, as well as some additional factors (initial catchment state, flood chronology, cascade effects, etc.). The results contribute to understanding the complexity of the processes leading to flood hazard and highlight the importance for risk managers of taking additional factors into account.

Climate change induced lanslide hazard mapping over Greece- A case study in Pelion Mountain (SE Thessaly, Central Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelitsa, Varvara; Loupasakis, Constantinos; Anagnwstopoulou, Christina

2015-04-01

Landslides, as a major type of geological hazard, represent one of the natural events that occur most frequently worldwide after hydro-meteorological events. Landslides occur when the stability of a slope changes due to a number of factors, such as the steep terrain and prolonged precipitation. Identification of landslides and compilation of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk maps are very important issues for the public authorities providing substantial information regarding, the strategic planning and management of the land-use. Although landslides cannot be predicted accurately, many attempts have been made to compile these maps. Important factors for the the compilation of reliable maps are the quality and the amount of available data and the selection of the best method for the analysis. Numerous studies and publications providing landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk maps, for different regions of Greece, have completed up to now. Their common characteristic is that they are static, taking into account parameters like geology, mean annual precipitaion, slope, aspect, distance from roads, faults and drainage network, soil capability, land use etc., without introducing the dimension of time. The current study focuses on the Pelion Mountain, which is located at the southeastern part of Thessaly in Central Greece; aiming to compile "dynamic" susceptibility and hazard maps depending on climate changes. For this purpose, past and future precipipation data from regional climate models (RCMs) datasets are introduced as input parameters for the compilation of "dynamic" landslide hazard maps. Moreover, land motion mapping data produced by Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) are used for the validation of the landslide occurrence during the period from June 1992 to December 2003 and as a result for the calibration of the mapping procedure. The PSI data can be applied at a regional scale as support for land motion mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known ground motion event. The PSI data were produced within the framework of the Terrafirma project. Terrafirma is a pan- European ground motion information service focused on seismic risk, flood defense and costal lowland subsidence,inactive mines and hydrogeological risks. The produced maps provided substantial information for the land use planning and the civil protection of an area presenting excelent natural beauty and numerous preservable trtaditional villages. Keywords: landslide, psi technique, regional climate models, lanslide susceptibility maps, Greece

Spatially distributed model calibration of flood inundation guided by consequences such as loss of property

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappenberger, F.; Beven, K. J.; Frodsham, K.; Matgen, P.

2005-12-01

Flood inundation models play an increasingly important role in assessing flood risk. The growth of 2D inundation models that are intimately related to raster maps of floodplains is occurring at the same time as an increase in the availability of 2D remote data (e.g. SAR images and aerial photographs), against which model performancee can be evaluated. This requires new techniques to be explored in order to evaluate model performance in two dimensional space. In this paper we present a fuzzified pattern matching algorithm which compares favorably to a set of traditional measures. However, we further argue that model calibration has to go beyond the comparison of physical properties and should demonstrate how a weighting towards consequences, such as loss of property, can enhance model focus and prediction. Indeed, it will be necessary to abandon a fully spatial comparison in many scenarios to concentrate the model calibration exercise on specific points such as hospitals, police stations or emergency response centers. It can be shown that such point evaluations lead to significantly different flood hazard maps due to the averaging effect of a spatial performance measure. A strategy to balance the different needs (accuracy at certain spatial points and acceptable spatial performance) has to be based in a public and political decision making process.

Natural hazards in the karst areas of the Viñales National Park, Cuba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govea Blanco, Darlenys; Farfan Gonzalez, Hermes; Dias Guanche, Carlos; Parise, Mario; Ramirez, Robert

2010-05-01

Cuban karst is subject to several natural hazards, the great majority of which is hydro-meteorological in character: intense rainstorms, tropical cyclones, seawater inundation, etc. A further, serious problem is represented by droughts, that have become very severe during the recent years, due to longer persistence of the dry season. Beside these hazards, seismic shocks in the eastern part of the country, and mass movements in the mountain areas have also to be mentioned. In general, it has to be noted that both casualties and economic losses from natural disasters have slowly decreased during the last decades at Cuba. Viñales National Park, as many other natural landforms in the Cuban karst, has a great potential for development and exploitation in several different fields, from agriculture, to tourism and recreational activities. At these aims, it is necessary to preserve the natural landscape, its beauty and resources, and, at the same time, improve the quality of people living in these environments. In particular, to face the social changes at present occurring in the area is one of the most difficult task for those people that are in charge of land management and development. It has also to be remembered that "Valle de Viñales" has been included by UNESCO in the World Cultural Heritage List. The main scenarios of natural hazards in the Viñales National Park are described in this contribution, and analyzed by means of different methodologies. Flooded areas have been mapped in the field soon after the occurrence of an extreme event as the hurricane Ike, characterized by rainfall higher than 300 mm/day, and preceded only ten days before by hurricane Gustav, that discharged in the area an amount of 120 mm/day of rain. As a consequence of the temporal vicinity of the two events, the terranes were already highly saturated at the time of occurrence of hurricane Ike, which thus resulted to be one of the most extreme floods ever recorded in the area. Electrostatic discharges have been mapped on the basis of the outcomes from inquiries carried out in the villages of the area, and of the documentation recorded in the Viñales National Park archives since the time of its foundation in year 2000. Slope movements in karst are quite difficult to map and survey, given the wilderness of the area. Thus, different methodologies were applied at this aim. Mass movements were mapped by using the PNUMA-FAO method, that allows to map the erosional features based upon a matrix analysis, and the results were checked in the field, and processed by means of GIS. As before mentioned, natural hazards from meteorological events are the most dangerous, even because of the peculiar characters of karst landforms, and the hydrologic recharge of karst territories. For instance, arrival of waters from allochtonous, non karst, territories has a great influence on the overall amount of water that is present in karst, both at the surface and underground, and the discharge from karst springs or rivers is strongly dependant upon such waters. Many caves are also conditioned by the presence of water, and periodically may become flooded, especially when located at the mountain or mogote foothills, well within the areas morelikely to be inundated. At the same time, flood occurrence greatly affects the anthropogenic activities, and is often at the origin of the main damage recorded to man and the human society. The other cited natural hazards are by far less disruptive to man, and cause minor damage when compared to floods. This because the great majority of mass movements and erosional phenomena have to be registered in sectors where the presence of man and his activities is much lower, so that economic activities are less affected; lightnings, on the other hand, are at the origin of wildfires generally limited to the highest peaks and mogotes (residual hills and ridges in Cuban tropical karst), once again rarely affecting man's activities.

Can Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Sets Be Used to Reproduce Flooding Over Large Scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Bates, Paul D.; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Kettner, Albert J.

2017-10-01

Floods are costly to global economies and can be exceptionally lethal. The ability to produce consistent flood hazard maps over large areas could provide a significant contribution to reducing such losses, as the lack of knowledge concerning flood risk is a major factor in the transformation of river floods into flood disasters. In order to accurately reproduce flooding in river channels and floodplains, high spatial resolution hydrodynamic models are needed. Despite being computationally expensive, recent advances have made their continental to global implementation feasible, although inputs for long-term simulations may require the use of reanalysis meteorological products especially in data-poor regions. We employ a coupled hydrologic/hydrodynamic model cascade forced by the 20CRv2 reanalysis data set and evaluate its ability to reproduce flood inundation area and volume for Australia during the 1973-2012 period. Ensemble simulations using the reanalysis data were performed to account for uncertainty in the meteorology and compared with a validated benchmark simulation. Results show that the reanalysis ensemble capture the inundated areas and volumes relatively well, with correlations for the ensemble mean of 0.82 and 0.85 for area and volume, respectively, although the meteorological ensemble spread propagates in large uncertainty of the simulated flood characteristics.

Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

2014-12-01

Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ's understanding of the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding at the airports and guiding decision-making in the selection of effective adaptation actions. Given the importance of these airports to transportation, this project is advancing security and continuity of national and international commerce well into the 21st century.

Increase in the exposition to floods in the Alicante coast (Valencia region, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olcina, J.; Rico, A. M.; Hernandez, M.; Martínez, E.

2009-09-01

During the last two decades, Flood episodes along the Alicante coastline have caused important material losses and general disruptions of everyday life in the municipalities affected. We can speak of an increase in the vulnerability to floods chiefly as a result of an increase in exposition. In turn this increase is fundamentally linked to the nature of the recent urbanization process in this area and the corresponding occupation of flood prone land. The province of Alicante occupies one of the first positions in Europe regarding flood risk (ESPON 2006). Even counting with legislation that regulates land uses, processes leading to the occupation of flood risk areas have proven very difficult to manage. In this sense, the Valencia region has enacted legislation such as the Land Use Planning Law of 1989, the Law on Urban Growth Regulations of 1994, and the Planning Regulations of 1998. All these legal pieces attempted to prohibit development in flood prone land declaring this land as "non.urban". New laws such as the Law on Land Use Planning and Landscape protection of 2004, the Law on New Urban Land (2004), and the Decree on Landscape (2006) also consider the need to include the flood hazard in planning activities. Furthermore in 1997, the so-called "Cartography of the flood hazard at the regional level" was elaborated. This mapping exercise was the base for the "Territorial Plan for the Reduction of Flood Risks (PATRICOVA) approved in 2003 and currently the main planning tool for flood management in Valencia. On the other hand, the European Directive 60/2007 pointed towards the need to take into consideration the social perception of Flood risks in order to develop integrated actions of risk management. Accordingly we have undertaken 285 interviews in the coastal communities of Alicante, Calpe and Campello (95 interviews each). We have chosen these municipalities for two reasons: first their significance in population and economic activity terms, and second, their different approach in specific measures to reduce the impact of floods

Modeling hydrologic and geomorphic hazards across post-fire landscapes using a self-organizing map approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2011-01-01

Few studies attempt to model the range of possible post-fire hydrologic and geomorphic hazards because of the sparseness of data and the coupled, nonlinear, spatial, and temporal relationships among landscape variables. In this study, a type of unsupervised artificial neural network, called a self-organized map (SOM), is trained using data from 540 burned basins in the western United States. The sparsely populated data set includes variables from independent numerical landscape categories (climate, land surface form, geologic texture, and post-fire condition), independent landscape classes (bedrock geology and state), and dependent initiation processes (runoff, landslide, and runoff and landslide combination) and responses (debris flows, floods, and no events). Pattern analysis of the SOM-based component planes is used to identify and interpret relations among the variables. Application of the Davies-Bouldin criteria following k-means clustering of the SOM neurons identified eight conceptual regional models for focusing future research and empirical model development. A split-sample validation on 60 independent basins (not included in the training) indicates that simultaneous predictions of initiation process and response types are at least 78% accurate. As climate shifts from wet to dry conditions, forecasts across the burned landscape reveal a decreasing trend in the total number of debris flow, flood, and runoff events with considerable variability among individual basins. These findings suggest the SOM may be useful in forecasting real-time post-fire hazards, and long-term post-recovery processes and effects of climate change scenarios.

A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

2016-04-01

Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate flood risk statistical characterization, the proposed procedure could be applied straightforward outside the national borders, particularly in areas with similar geo-environmental settings.

Microzonation in Urban Areas, Basic Element for Land-Use Planning, Risk Management and Sustainable Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torres Morales, G. F.; Dávalos Sotelo, R.; Castillo Aguilar, S.; Mora González, I.; Lermo Samaniego, J. F.; Rodriguez, M.; García Martínez, J.; Suárez, M. Leonardo; Hernández Juan, F.

2013-05-01

This paper presents the results of microzonification of the natural hazards for different metropolitan areas and highlights the importance of integrating these results in urban planning. The cities that have been covered for the definition of danger in the state of Veracruz are: Orizaba, Veracruz and Xalapa, as part of the production of a Geological and Hydrometeorology Hazards Atlas for the state of Veracruz, financed by the Funds for the Prevention of Natural Disasters FOPREDEN and CONACYT. The general data of each metropolitan area was integrated in a geographic information system (GIS), obtaining different theme maps, and maps of dynamic characteristics of soils in each metropolitan area. For the planning of an urban area to aspire to promote sustainable development, it is essential to have a great deal of the details on the pertinent information and the most important is that that has to do with the degree of exposure to natural phenomena. In general, microzonation investigations consider all natural phenomena that could potentially affect an area of interest and hazard maps for each of potential hazards are prepared. With all the data collected and generated and fed into a SIG, models were generated which define the areas most threatened by earthquake, flood and landslide slopes. These results were compared with maps of the main features in the urban zones and a qualitative classification of areas of high to low hazard was established. It will have the basic elements of information for urban planning and land use. This information will be made available to the authorities and the general public through an Internet portal where people can download and view maps using free software available online.;

The impact of local land subsidence and global sea level rise on flood severity in Houston-Galveston caused by Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, M. M.; Shirzaei, M.

2017-12-01

Category-4 Hurricane Harvey had devastating socioeconomic impacts to Houston, with flooding far past the 100-year flood zones published by FEMA. In recent decades, frequency and intensity of coastal flooding are escalating, correlated with sea level rise (SLR). Moreover, Local land subsidence (LLS) due to groundwater and hydrocarbon extraction and natural compaction changes surface elevation and slope, potentially altering drainage patterns. GPS data show a mm broad co-cyclonic subsidence due to elastic loading from the water mass measured by GPS, which is inverted to solve for the total fluid volume of 2.73x1010 m3. We additionally investigate the joint impact of an SLR and pre-cyclonic LLS on the flooding of Houston-Galveston during Hurricane Harvey. We examine vertical land motion within North American Vertical Datum 2012 for the period 2007 until the cyclone by investigating SAR imaged acquired by ALOS and Sentinel-1A/B radar satellites combined with GPS data. We find patchy, LLS bowls resulting in sinks where floodwater can collect. We map the flooding extent by comparing amplitudes of Sentinal1-A/B pixels' backscattered radar signal from pre- and post-Harvey acquisitions and estimate 782 km2 are submerged within the area of 3478 km2 of pixels covered by Sentinel frame. Comparing with the LLS map, 89% of the flooded pixels exhibit -3 mm/yr or greater vertical motion. Flooding attributed to the storm surge is determined with high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation models (DEM) and a 0.75 m storm tide inundation model, which engulfs only 195 km2 and nearby the shorelines. We estimate future inundation hazard by combining LiDAR DEMs with our InSAR derived subsidence map, projecting LLS rates forward 100 years, and modeling projected SLR from 0.4 to 1.2 meters. Were subsidence to continue unabated, the total flooded area is 281 km2 with a 0.4 m and 394 km2 with a 1.2 m SLR. Next, we add a modest storm tide (0.752 m), which increases the flooded area to 389 - 480 km2. The combined effects of LLS and SLR are important to evaluate flood resilience strategies.

Toward a coupled Hazard-Vulnerability Tool for Flash Flood Impacts Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terti, Galateia; Ruin, Isabelle; Anquetin, Sandrine; Gourley, Jonathan J.

2015-04-01

Flash floods (FF) are high-impact, catastrophic events that result from the intersection of hydrometeorological extremes and society at small space-time scales, generally on the order of minutes to hours. Because FF events are generally localized in space and time, they are very difficult to forecast with precision and can subsequently leave people uninformed and subject to surprise in the midst of their daily activities (e.g., commuting to work). In Europe, FFs are the main source of natural hazard fatalities, although they affect smaller areas than riverine flooding. In the US, also, flash flooding is the leading cause of weather-related deaths most years, with some 200 annual fatalities. There were 954 fatalities and approximately 31 billion U.S. dollars of property damage due to floods and flash floods from 1995 to 2012 in the US. For forecasters and emergency managers the prediction of and subsequent response to impacts due to such a sudden onset and localized event remains a challenge. This research is motivated by the hypothesis that the intersection of the spatio-temporal context of the hazard with the distribution of people and their characteristics across space and time reveals different paths of vulnerability. We argue that vulnerability and the dominant impact type varies dynamically throughout the day and week according to the location under concern. Thus, indices are appropriate to develop and provide, for example, vehicle-related impacts on active population being focused on the road network during morning or evening rush hours. This study describes the methodological developments of our approach and applies our hypothesis to the case of the June 14th, 2010 flash flood event in the Oklahoma City area (Oklahoma, US). Social (i.e. population socio-economic profile), exposure (i.e. population distribution, land use), and physical (i.e. built and natural environment) data are used to compose different vulnerability products based on the forecast location and timing of the specific FF occurrence. Contingent index-based impact maps are then derived from the intersection of the hydro-meteorological indices with the exposure, sensitivity and/or coping capacity indices describing the infrastructure and people in the study area.

Community Based Flood Modeling in Southern and Baja California to Meet End User Needs for Decision-Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, B. F.

2017-12-01

Flooding of coastal and fluvial systems are the most significant natural hazards facing society, and damages have been escalating for decades globally and in the U.S. Almost all metropolitan areas are exposed to flood risk. The threat from river flooding is especially high in India and China, and coastal cities around the world are threatened by storm surge and rising sea levels. Several trends including rising sea levels, urbanization, deforestation, and rural-to-urban population shifts will increase flood exposure in the future. Flood impacts are escalating despite advances in hazards science and extensive effort to manage risks. The fundamental issue is not that flooding is becoming more severe, even though it is in some places, but rather that societies are become more vulnerable to flood impacts. A critical factor contributing to the escalation of flood impacts is that the most vulnerable sectors of communities are left out of processes to prepare for and respond to flooding. Furthermore, the translation of knowledge about flood hazards and vulnerabilities into actionable information for communities has not been effective. In Southern and Baja California, an interdisciplinary team of researchers has partnered with stakeholders in flood vulnerable communities to co-develop flood hazard information systems designed to meet end-user needs for decision-making. The initiative leveraged the power of advanced, fine-scale hydraulic models of flooding to craft intuitive visualizations of context-sensitive scenarios. This presentation will cover the ways by which the process of flood inundation modeling served as a focal point for knowledge development, as well as the unique visualizations that populate on-line information systems accessible here: http://floodrise.uci.edu/online-flood-hazard-viewers/

Multilevel integrated flood management aproach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brilly, Mitja; Rusjan, Simon

2013-04-01

The optimal solution for complex flood management is integrated approach. Word »integration« used very often when we try to put something together, but should distinguish full multiple integrated approach of integration by parts when we put together and analyse only two variables. In doing so, we lost complexity of the phenomenon. Otherwise if we try to put together all variables we should take so much effort and time and we never finish the job properly. Solution is in multiple integration captures the essential factors, which are different on a case-by-case (Brilly, 2000). Physical planning is one of most important activity in which flood management should be integrated. The physical planning is crucial for vulnerability and its future development and on other hand our structural measures must be incorporate in space and will very often dominated in. The best solution is if space development derived on same time with development of structural measures. There are good examples with such approach (Vienna, Belgrade, Zagreb, and Ljubljana). Problems stared when we try incorporating flood management in already urbanised area or we would like to decrease risk to some lower level. Looking to practice we learn that middle Ages practices were much better than to day. There is also »disaster by design« when hazard increased as consequence of upstream development or in stream construction or remediation. In such situation we have risk on areas well protected in the past. Good preparation is essential for integration otherwise we just lost time what is essential for decision making and development. We should develop clear picture about physical characteristics of phenomena and possible solutions. We should develop not only the flood maps; we should know how fast phenomena could develop, in hour, day or more. Do we need to analyse ground water - surface water relations, we would like to protected area that was later flooded by ground water. Do we need to take care about sediment transport, phenomenon close related to floods - could the river bad bottom increase or decrease for some meters or river completely rearrange morphology - how then inundated area will look like. Hazard of floods should be presented properly, with maps, uncertainty and trends related to natural and anthropogenic impacts. We should look time back, how our river look in past centuries and what are water management plans for future. Which activities are on the river? There are good practice in flood protection, hydropower development and physical planning (Vienna, Sava River).

Geologic Maps as the Foundation of Mineral-Hazards Maps in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, C. T.; Churchill, R. K.; Downey, C. I.; Clinkenbeard, J. P.; Fonseca, M. C.

2010-12-01

The basic geologic map is essential to the development of products that help planners, engineers, government officials, and the general public make decisions concerning natural hazards. Such maps are the primary foundation that the California Geological Survey (CGS) uses to prepare maps that show potential for mineral-hazards. Examples of clients that request these maps are the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and California Department of Public Health (CDPH). Largely because of their non-catastrophic nature, mineral hazards have received much less public attention compared to earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods. Nonetheless, mineral hazards can be a major concern locally when considering human health and safety and potential contamination of the environment by human activities such as disposal of earth materials. To address some of these concerns, the CGS has focused its mineral-hazards maps on naturally occurring asbestos (NOA), radon, and various potentially toxic metals as well as certain artificial features such as mines and oil and gas wells. The maps range in scope from statewide to counties and Caltrans districts to segments of selected highways. To develop the hazard maps, the CGS begins with traditional paper and digital versions of basic geologic maps, which are obtained from many sources such as its own files, the USGS, USDA Forest Service, California Department of Water Resources, and counties. For each study area, these maps present many challenges of compilation related to vintage, scale, definition of units, and edge-matching across map boundaries. The result of each CGS compilation is a digital geologic layer that is subsequently reinterpreted and transformed into new digital layers (e.g., lithologic) that focus on the geochemical and mineralogical properties of the area’s earth materials and structures. These intermediate layers are then integrated with other technical data to derive final digital layers that show potential for mineral hazards. Depending on the type of mineral hazard investigated, qualitative and/or quantitative methods are used in this process. The final information is given to CGS clients in various formats that range from traditional paper maps to attributed digital layers, which can be viewed on background digital imagery in 2D or 3D with image viewers or GIS software. This variety of formats assures that users with different levels of computer experience or available computer resources can access the information. Besides the applications presented here, mineral-hazards mapping can also be used in many other settings and situations as a tool to evaluate potential effects on human health and the environment. Examples include fighting forest fires, harvesting of timber, post-fire debris flows during storms, disposal or import of earth materials for non-highway construction projects, and rural areas used for recreation (hiking, motorcycling, etc.). In the future, the CGS expects to investigate and possibly employ more-sophisticated digital algorithms to rate and display the potential for specific mineral hazards on its maps. The geologist’s knowledge and experience will still be needed, however, to review these digital results to decide if they are reasonable.

Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

PubMed Central

Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Bürgmann, Roland

2018-01-01

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km2 considering sea level rise alone. PMID:29536042

24 CFR 3285.302 - Flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... loads associated with design flood and wind events or combined wind and flood events, and homes must be installed on foundation supports that are designed and anchored to prevent floatation, collapse, or lateral... URBAN DEVELOPMENT MODEL MANUFACTURED HOME INSTALLATION STANDARDS Foundations § 3285.302 Flood hazard...

GIS-based flood risk model evaluated by Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukcharoen, Tharapong; Weng, Jingnong; Teetat, Charoenkalunyuta

2016-10-01

Over the last 2-3 decades, the economy of many countries around the world has been developed rapidly but it was unbalanced development because of expecting on economic growth only. Meanwhile it lacked of effective planning in the use of natural resources. This can significantly induce climate change which is major cause of natural disaster. Hereby, Thailand has also suffered from natural disaster for ages. Especially, the flood which is most hazardous disaster in Thailand can annually result in the great loss of life and property, environment and economy. Since the flood management of country is inadequate efficiency. It is unable to support the flood analysis comprehensively. This paper applied Geographic Information System and Multi-Criteria Decision Making to create flood risk model at regional scale. Angthong province in Thailand was used as the study area. In practical process, Fuzzy logic technique has been used to improve specialist's assessment by implementing with Fuzzy membership because human decision is flawed under uncertainty then AHP technique was processed orderly. The hierarchy structure in this paper was categorized the spatial flood factors into two levels as following: 6 criteria (Meteorology, Geology, Topography, Hydrology, Human and Flood history) and 8 factors (Average Rainfall, Distance from Stream, Soil drainage capability, Slope, Elevation, Land use, Distance from road and Flooded area in the past). The validity of the pair-wise comparison in AHP was shown as C.R. value which indicated that the specialist judgment was reasonably consistent. FAHP computation result has shown that the first priority of criteria was Meteorology. In addition, the Rainfall was the most influencing factor for flooding. Finally, the output was displayed in thematic map of Angthong province with flood risk level processed by GIS tools. The map was classified into: High Risk, Moderate Risk and Low Risk (13.20%, 75.58%, and 11.22% of total area).

12 CFR 760.6 - Required use of standard flood hazard determination form.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Required use of standard flood hazard determination form. 760.6 Section 760.6 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION REGULATIONS..., computerized, or electronic manner. A credit union may obtain the standard flood hazard determination form from...

12 CFR 572.6 - Required use of standard flood hazard determination form.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Required use of standard flood hazard determination form. 572.6 Section 572.6 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF THRIFT SUPERVISION, DEPARTMENT OF THE..., computerized, or electronic manner. A savings association may obtain the standard flood hazard determination...

Flood risk assessment in a Spanish Mediterranean catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salazar, S.; Francés, F.; García-Bartual, R.; Ortiz, E.; Múnera, J. C.; Vélez, J. J.

2009-04-01

This paper describes a multidisciplinary approach for the risk assessment and its application to analysing the effects of extreme flood events on the Mediterranean catchment called "Rambla del Poyo" in Valencia (Spain). This catchment located in the East coast of Spain has an area of 380 km2 and is clearly open to the Mediterranean Mesoscale Convective Storms. The climate is semiarid, and the flow regime is typically ephemeral, but with highly frequent flash floods, with peak flows in the order of 500 m3/s. Recently, in 2000 and 2002 the area was severe flooded. The flood prone area is located in the lower part of the basin, with an important concentration of different urban centers and industrial and commercial areas (including part of the Valencia International Airport). For this reason, the analysis of damages of residential, industrial and commercial urbanized areas is essential for the prevention of damages with a proper flood risk management. The approach is based on three main steps. The first step entails a detailed hydrological analysis (parameter estimation, calibration-validation and simulations) using a distributed rainfall-runoff model called TETIS. In the case study, on one hand, high temporal resolutions rain gauge data are scarce, because of this, in addition to a small number of historic events, 100 synthetic rainstorms were generated using the multidimensional stochastic model called RAINGEN, which adequately represents the main structural properties typical of intense convective storms, including occurrence of raincells in space and time and the generated intensities. An equivalent daily maximum precipitation Pd was estimated for each synthetic event, thus allowing a return period assignment using the known statistical distribution of Pd in the region. On the other hand, the initial soil moisture condition can have a strong influence in the runoff production, for this reason, long term daily simulation has been done in order to asses the probability distribution of the initial situation before the extreme flood events (dry and wet conditions). For all combinations of precipitation inputs and initial conditions, 200 hydrological simulations has been done in order to obtain the input hydrographs for the hydraulic model. Finally in this step, a frequency analysis to obtain the non-exceedence probability of the peak discharges has been developed using the annual maximum daily precipitation and the initial soil moisture condition with this expression: ž« FX (x) = FX |r (x|r).fR (r).dr -ž where: X= random variable of interest (peak discharge), R= annual maximum daily precipitation, fR(r)= probability density function of R, FX•r(x/r)= conditional density function of X given r obtained from simulations. The main objective of second step is flood hazard estimation, which, the hydraulic modelling has been developed using the coupled computing version of Sobek 1D/2D. In this task, the treatment of DEM calculation can be a key task depending on the scale of work. The introduction of buildings, walls, the opening of drainage works… improving the quality of results in areas with high anthropogenic influence; in our case has been made 6 simulations with 3 different resolutions, after all, the model has been done with a model one-dimensional (1D), logging throughout the stretch to two-dimensional (2D) grid with the parent of 30x30 metres, except for its passage through the urban, commercial and industrial land uses in the flood prone area where it connects with the child grid of 10x10 metres. Unfortunately, for reasons of computer time, the hydraulic model has not been run for the 200 available events. However, 20 events have been carefully select trying to cover the best probabilistic interest spectrum for this study (from two to one thousand years of return period). From the 20 selected flooding maps it has been developed a GIS computational tool for calculating a regression between the independent variable (maximum water depth) and the dependent variable return period transformed into natural logarithm. Using this methodology have been generated the hazard maps for the return periods of interest. Finally, the third step concerns to the flood risk, which was defined as probabilistic integral of the combination of flood hazard and land use vulnerability: ž« R = V (h).fH (h).dh 0 Where: R is the flood risk, V(h) is the land use vulnerability, h is the flood magnitude and fH(h) is its probability density function. The land use vulnerability is expressed in terms of stage-damage functions for urban, commercial and industrial land uses. Both, flood hazard and land use vulnerability are defined in terms of magnitude (water depth). This integral has been solved in discrete form using a GIS tools. The flood risk assessment by a resolution of 10 meters in size cell in the flood prone area of the "Rambla del Poyo" has been done. With this useful methodology, we believe that a complete flood risk analysis is needed in order to objectively compare different future scenarios that can affect either the flood hazard and/or the vulnerability in the flood prone area.

Preparation of a flood-risk environmental index: case study of eight townships in Changhua County, Taiwan.

PubMed

Peng, Szu-Hsien

2018-02-26

To evaluate flood-prone areas, correlation analysis of flooding factors for the quantitative evaluation of hazard degree was determined to assist in further disaster prevention management. This study used flood-prone areas in 35 villages over eight townships (Changhua, Huatan, Yuanlin, Xiushui, Puyan, Hemei, Dacun, and Erlin) in Changhua County as research samples. Linear combination was used to evaluate flood-prone environmental indices, and an expert questionnaire was designed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the Delphi method to determine the weights of factors. These factors were then used to calculate the eigenvector of a pairwise comparison matrix to obtain the weights for the risk assessment criteria. Through collection of disaster cases, with particular focus on specifically protected areas where flooding has occurred or is likely to occur, public adaptation and response capabilities were evaluated by using an interview questionnaire that contains the items of perceived disaster risk, resource acquisition capability, adaptation capability, and environment understanding and disaster prevention education. Overlays in a geographic information system were used to analyze the flood-risk degree in villages and to construct a distribution map that contains flood-prone environment indices. The results can assist local governments in understanding the risk degree of various administrative areas to aid them in developing effective mitigation plans.

Geological Features Mapping Using PALSAR-2 Data in Kelantan River Basin, Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pour, A. B.; Hashim, M.

2016-09-01

In this study, the recently launched Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (PALSAR-2) onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2), remote sensing data were used to map geologic structural and topographical features in the Kelantan river basin for identification of high potential risk and susceptible zones for landslides and flooding areas. A ScanSAR and two fine mode dual polarization level 3.1 images cover Kelantan state were processed for comprehensive analysis of major geological structures and detailed characterizations of lineaments, drainage patterns and lithology at both regional and district scales. Red-Green-Blue (RGB) colour-composite was applied to different polarization channels of PALSAR-2 data to extract variety of geological information. Directional convolution filters were applied to the data for identifying linear features in particular directions and edge enhancement in the spatial domain. Results derived from ScanSAR image indicate that lineament occurrence at regional scale was mainly linked to the N-S trending of the Bentong-Raub Suture Zone (BRSZ) in the west and Lebir Fault Zone in the east of the Kelantan state. Combination of different polarization channels produced image maps contain important information related to water bodies, wetlands and lithological units for the Kelantan state using fine mode observation data. The N-S, NE-SW and NNE-SSW lineament trends were identified in the study area using directional filtering. Dendritic, sub-dendritic and rectangular drainage patterns were detected in the Kelantan river basin. The analysis of field investigations data indicate that many of flooded areas were associated with high potential risk zones for hydro-geological hazards such as wetlands, urban areas, floodplain scroll, meander bend, dendritic and sub-dendritic drainage patterns, which are located in flat topograghy regions. Numerous landslide points were located in rectangular drainage system that associated with topographic slope of metamorphic and Quaternary rock units. Some large landslides were associated with N-S, NNE-SSW and NE-SW trending fault zones. Consequently, structural and topographical geology maps were produced for Kelantan river basin using PALSAR-2 data, which could be broadly applicable for landslide hazard mapping and identification of high potential risk zone for hydro-geological hazards.

Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding.

PubMed

Moftakhari, Hamed R; Salvadori, Gianfausto; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F; Matthew, Richard A

2017-09-12

Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.

High-accuracy single-pass InSAR DEM for large-scale flood hazard applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumann, G.; Faherty, D.; Moller, D.

2017-12-01

In this study, we used a unique opportunity of the GLISTIN-A (NASA airborne mission designed to characterizing the cryosphere) track to Greenland to acquire a high-resolution InSAR DEM of a large area in the Red River of the North Basin (north of Grand Forks, ND, USA), which is a very flood-vulnerable valley, particularly in spring time due to increased soil moisture content near state of saturation and/or, typical for this region, snowmelt. Having an InSAR DEM that meets flood inundation modeling and mapping requirements comparable to LiDAR, would demonstrate great application potential of new radar technology for national agencies with an operational flood forecasting mandate and also local state governments active in flood event prediction, disaster response and mitigation. Specifically, we derived a bare-earth DEM in SAR geometry by first removing the inherent far range bias related to airborne operation, which at the more typical large-scale DEM resolution of 30 m has a sensor accuracy of plus or minus 2.5 cm. Subsequently, an intelligent classifier based on informed relationships between InSAR height, intensity and correlation was used to distinguish between bare-earth, roads or embankments, buildings and tall vegetation in order to facilitate the creation of a bare-earth DEM that would meet the requirements for accurate floodplain inundation mapping. Using state-of-the-art LiDAR terrain data, we demonstrate that capability by achieving a root mean squared error of approximately 25 cm and further illustrating its applicability to flood modeling.

12 CFR Appendix A to Part 339 - Sample Form of Notice of Special Flood Hazards and Availability of Federal Disaster Relief...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... SPECIAL FLOOD HAZARDS Pt. 339, App. A Appendix A to Part 339—Sample Form of Notice of Special Flood... you do not purchase flood insurance. The flood insurance must be maintained for the life of the loan. If you fail to purchase or renew flood insurance on the property, Federal law authorizes and requires...

12 CFR Appendix A to Part 339 - Sample Form of Notice of Special Flood Hazards and Availability of Federal Disaster Relief...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... SPECIAL FLOOD HAZARDS Pt. 339, App. A Appendix A to Part 339—Sample Form of Notice of Special Flood... you do not purchase flood insurance. The flood insurance must be maintained for the life of the loan. If you fail to purchase or renew flood insurance on the property, Federal law authorizes and requires...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ootegem, Luc; SHERPPA — Ghent University; Verhofstadt, Elsy

Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimationmore » technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks.« less

Using a Geographic Information System to Assess the Risk of Hurricane Hazards on the Maya Civilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.

2014-12-01

The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern edge of the Yucatan peninsula were found to be more prone to experiencing wind and flood related hurricane hazards. Novel methodologies developed from this analysis can be adapted for further hurricane risk assessment on archeological sites.

Flood warnings, flood disaster assessments, and flood hazard reduction: the roles of orbital remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brakenridge, G. R.; Anderson, E.; Nghiem, S. V.; Caquard, S.; Shabaneh, T. B.

2003-01-01

Orbital remote sensing of the Earth is now poised to make three fundamental contributions towards reducing the detrimental effects of extreme floods. Effective Flood warning requires frequent radar observation of the Earth's surface through cloud cover. In contrast, both optical and radar wavelengths will increasingly be used for disaster assessment and hazard reduction.