Sample records for flood performance utilizing

  1. Comparisons of two moments‐based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    England, John F.; Salas, José D.; Jarrett, Robert D.

    2003-01-01

    The expected moments algorithm (EMA) [Cohn et al., 1997] and the Bulletin 17B [Interagency Committee on Water Data, 1982] historical weighting procedure (B17H) for the log Pearson type III distribution are compared by Monte Carlo computer simulation for cases in which historical and/or paleoflood data are available. The relative performance of the estimators was explored for three cases: fixed‐threshold exceedances, a fixed number of large floods, and floods generated from a different parent distribution. EMA can effectively incorporate four types of historical and paleoflood data: floods where the discharge is explicitly known, unknown discharges below a single threshold, floods with unknown discharge that exceed some level, and floods with discharges described in a range. The B17H estimator can utilize only the first two types of historical information. Including historical/paleoflood data in the simulation experiments significantly improved the quantile estimates in terms of mean square error and bias relative to using gage data alone. EMA performed significantly better than B17H in nearly all cases considered. B17H performed as well as EMA for estimating X100 in some limited fixed‐threshold exceedance cases. EMA performed comparatively much better in other fixed‐threshold situations, for the single large flood case, and in cases when estimating extreme floods equal to or greater than X500. B17H did not fully utilize historical information when the historical period exceeded 200 years. Robustness studies using GEV‐simulated data confirmed that EMA performed better than B17H. Overall, EMA is preferred to B17H when historical and paleoflood data are available for flood frequency analysis.

  2. Comparisons of two moments-based estimators that utilize historical and paleoflood data for the log Pearson type III distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    England, John F.; Salas, José D.; Jarrett, Robert D.

    2003-09-01

    The expected moments algorithm (EMA) [, 1997] and the Bulletin 17B [, 1982] historical weighting procedure (B17H) for the log Pearson type III distribution are compared by Monte Carlo computer simulation for cases in which historical and/or paleoflood data are available. The relative performance of the estimators was explored for three cases: fixed-threshold exceedances, a fixed number of large floods, and floods generated from a different parent distribution. EMA can effectively incorporate four types of historical and paleoflood data: floods where the discharge is explicitly known, unknown discharges below a single threshold, floods with unknown discharge that exceed some level, and floods with discharges described in a range. The B17H estimator can utilize only the first two types of historical information. Including historical/paleoflood data in the simulation experiments significantly improved the quantile estimates in terms of mean square error and bias relative to using gage data alone. EMA performed significantly better than B17H in nearly all cases considered. B17H performed as well as EMA for estimating X100 in some limited fixed-threshold exceedance cases. EMA performed comparatively much better in other fixed-threshold situations, for the single large flood case, and in cases when estimating extreme floods equal to or greater than X500. B17H did not fully utilize historical information when the historical period exceeded 200 years. Robustness studies using GEV-simulated data confirmed that EMA performed better than B17H. Overall, EMA is preferred to B17H when historical and paleoflood data are available for flood frequency analysis.

  3. Local Flood Proofing Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-02-01

    Carolina, funded its flood audits and other flood protection projects with stormwater utility income. Impact fees: Impact fees are contributions...determining appropriate projects . Local Flood Proofing Programs – 68 – February 2005 Bolingbrook’s Flood Audit Bolingbrook, Illinois, has used different...GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND

  4. A new modelling framework and mitigation measures for increased resilience to flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Alexakis, Athanasios; Solley, Mark

    2015-04-01

    Flooding in rivers and estuaries is amongst the most significant challenges our society has yet to tackle effectively. Use of floodwall systems is one of the potential measures that can be used to mitigate the detrimental socio-economical and ecological impacts and alleviate the associated costs of flooding. This work demonstrates the utility of such systems for a case study via appropriate numerical simulations, in addition to conducting scaled flume experiments towards obtaining a better understanding of the performance and efficiency of the flood-wall systems. At first, the results of several characteristic inundation modeling scenarios and flood mitigation options, for a flood-prone region in Scotland. In particular, the history and hydrology of the area are discussed and the assumptions and hydraulic model input (model geometry including instream hydraulic structures -such as bridges and weirs- river and floodplain roughness, initial and boundary conditions) are presented, followed by the model results. Emphasis is given on the potential improvements brought about by mitigating flood risk using flood-wall systems. Further, the implementation of the floodwall in mitigating flood risk is demonstrated via appropriate numerical modeling, utilizing HEC-RAS to simulate the effect of a river's rising stage during a flood event, for a specific area. The later part of this work involves the design, building and utilization of a scaled physical model of a flood-wall system. These experiments are carried out at one of the research flumes in the Water Engineering laboratory of the University of Glasgow. These involve an experimental investigation where the increase of force applied on the floodwall is measured for different degrees of deflection of the water in the stream, under the maximum flow discharge that can be carried through without exceeding the floodwall height (and accounting for the effect of super-elevation). These results can be considered upon the implementation phase of floodwalls, when the floodwalls are placed at any arrangement other than parallel to the flow (e.g. along river bends in meandering channels or at river junctions). Such considerations can lead to site-specific optimal designs of direct flood defenses with the rising floodwall system, both in terms of product performance as well as cost efficiency.

  5. Automated Mapping of Flood Events in the Mississippi River Basin Utilizing NASA Earth Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartkovich, Mercedes; Baldwin-Zook, Helen Blue; Cruz, Dashiell; McVey, Nicholas; Ploetz, Chris; Callaway, Olivia

    2017-01-01

    The Mississippi River Basin is the fourth largest drainage basin in the world, and is susceptible to multi-level flood events caused by heavy precipitation, snow melt, and changes in water table levels. Conducting flood analysis during periods of disaster is a challenging endeavor for NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and the U.S. Geological Survey's Hazards Data Distribution Systems (USGS HDDS) due to heavily-involved research and lack of manpower. During this project, an automated script was generated that performs high-level flood analysis to relieve the workload for end-users. The script incorporated Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) tiles and utilized computer-learning techniques to generate accurate water extent maps. The script referenced the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-water mask to isolate areas of flood induced waters. These areas were overlaid onto the National Land Cover Database's (NLCD) land cover data, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScan data, and Homeland Infrastructure Foundation-Level Data (HIFLD) to determine the classification of areas impacted and the population density affected by flooding. The automated algorithm was initially tested on the September 2016 flood event that occurred in Upper Mississippi River Basin, and was then further tested on multiple flood events within the Mississippi River Basin. This script allows end users to create their own flood probability and impact maps for disaster mitigation and recovery efforts.

  6. Flood loss model transfer: on the value of additional data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schröter, Kai; Lüdtke, Stefan; Vogel, Kristin; Kreibich, Heidi; Thieken, Annegret; Merz, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    The transfer of models across geographical regions and flood events is a key challenge in flood loss estimation. Variations in local characteristics and continuous system changes require regional adjustments and continuous updating with current evidence. However, acquiring data on damage influencing factors is expensive and therefore assessing the value of additional data in terms of model reliability and performance improvement is of high relevance. The present study utilizes empirical flood loss data on direct damage to residential buildings available from computer aided telephone interviews that were carried out after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011 and 2013 mainly in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. Flood loss model performance is assessed for incrementally increased numbers of loss data which are differentiated according to region and flood event. Two flood loss modeling approaches are considered: (i) a multi-variable flood loss model approach using Random Forests and (ii) a uni-variable stage damage function. Both model approaches are embedded in a bootstrapping process which allows evaluating the uncertainty of model predictions. Predictive performance of both models is evaluated with regard to mean bias, mean absolute and mean squared errors, as well as hit rate and sharpness. Mean bias and mean absolute error give information about the accuracy of model predictions; mean squared error and sharpness about precision and hit rate is an indicator for model reliability. The results of incremental, regional and temporal updating demonstrate the usefulness of additional data to improve model predictive performance and increase model reliability, particularly in a spatial-temporal transfer setting.

  7. A Framework and Metric for resilience concept in water infrastructure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karamouz, M.; Olyaei, M.

    2017-12-01

    The collaborators of water industries are looking for ways and means to bring resilience into our water infrastructure systems. The key to this conviction is to develop a shared vision among the engineers, builders and decision makers of our water executive branch and policy makers, utilities, community leaders, players, end users and other stakeholders of our urban environment. Among water infrastructures, wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) have a significant role on urban systems' serviceability. These facilities, especially when located in coastal regions, are vulnerable to heavy rain, surface runoff, storm surges and coastal flooding. Flooding can cause overflows from treatment facilities into the natural water bodies and result in environmental predicament of significant proportions. In order to minimize vulnerability to flood, a better understanding of flood risk must be realized. Vulnerability to floods frequency and intensity is increasing by external forcing such as climate change, as well as increased interdependencies in urban systems. Therefore, to quantify the extent of efforts for flood risk management, a unified index is needed for evaluating resiliency of infrastructure. Resiliency is a key concept in understanding vulnerability in dealing with flood. New York City based on its geographic location, its urbanized nature, densely populated area, interconnected water bodies and history of the past flooding events is extremely vulnerable to flood and was selected as the case study. In this study, a framework is developed to evaluate resiliency of WWTPs. An analysis of the current understanding of vulnerability is performed and a new perspective utilizing different components of resiliency including resourcefulness, robustness, rapidity and redundancy is presented. To quantify resiliency and rank the wastewater treatment plants in terms of how resilient they are, an index is developed using Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) technique. Moreover, Improvement of WWTPs' performance is investigated by allocating financial resources to attain a desirable level of resiliency. The result of this study shows the significant value of quantifying and improving flood resiliency of WWTPs that could be used for other water infrastructure and in planning of investment strategies for a region

  8. An exhaustive approach for identification of flood risk hotspots in data poor regions enforcing combined geomorphic and socio-economic indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohanty, M. P.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2017-12-01

    Many countries across the Globe are victims of floods. To monitor them, various sophisticated algorithms and flood models are used by the scientific community. However, there still lies a gap to efficiently mapping flood risk. The limitations being: (i) scarcity of extensive data inputs required for precise flood modeling, (ii) fizzling performance of models in large and complex terrains (iii) high computational cost and time, and (iv) inexpertise in handling model simulations by civic bodies. These factors trigger the necessity of incorporating uncomplicated and inexpensive, yet precise approaches to identify areas at different levels of flood risk. The present study addresses this issue by utilizing various easily available, low cost data in a GIS environment for a large flood prone and data poor region. A set of geomorphic indicators of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) are analysed through linear binary classification, and are used to identify the flood hazard. The performance of these indicators is then investigated using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, whereas the calibration and validation of the derived flood maps are accomplished through a comparison with dynamically coupled 1-D 2-D flood model outputs. A high degree of similarity on flood inundation proves the reliability of the proposed approach in identifying flood hazard. On the other hand, an extensive list of socio-economic indicators is selected to represent the flood vulnerability at a very finer forward sortation level using multivariate Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). A set of bivariate flood risk maps is derived combining the flood hazard and socio-economic vulnerability maps. Given the acute problem of floods in developing countries, the proposed methodology which may be characterized by low computational cost, lesser data requirement and limited flood modeling complexity may facilitate local authorities and planners for deriving effective flood management strategies.

  9. Study on the Potential Development of Rainwater Utilization in the Hilly City of Southern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Xiaoran; Liu, Jiahong; Shao, Weiwei; Zhang, Haixing

    2017-12-01

    Aimed at the current flood problems and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in the southern cities of China, the comprehensive utilization of Urban Rainwater Resources (URRs) is a significant solution. At present, the research on the comprehensive utilization system of urban rainwater resources in China is still immature, especially the lack of a comprehensive method for the comprehensive utilization of the rainwater and flood resources in the south. Based on the current mode for utilization of URRs at home and abroad, Fenghuang County in Hunan Province was taken as a case of study, which is a typical mountainous city in the southern China. And the potential development of URRs was simulated and evaluated with a comparison of before and after the exploitation and utilization of URRs in this paper. The reduction effect of flood and waterlogging on the ancient city area is analyzed from SWMM. The simulation results show that the potential of exploitation and utilization of URRs in Fenghuang county is remarkable under the mode of exploitation and utilization which is given priority to flood prevention and control, and the annual development potential is 4.865×105 m3. The rainwater utilization measures of flood control effect is obvious with this mode, and the relevant research results can provide theoretical and technical support for enhancing urban water security capability, water conservation capacity, and disaster mitigation of urban flood.

  10. NASA Global Flood Mapping System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Policelli, Fritz; Slayback, Dan; Brakenridge, Bob; Nigro, Joe; Hubbard, Alfred

    2017-01-01

    Product utility key factors: Near real time, automated production; Flood spatial extent Cloudiness Pixel resolution: 250m; Flood temporal extent; Flash floods short duration on ground?; Landcover--Water under vegetation cover vs open water

  11. Successful prediction and performance in waterflooding Wesson Hogg Sand Unit, Ouachita County, Arkansas

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Clanton, H.W.

    1966-01-01

    By unitization and waterflooding, the Hogg Sand reservoir will increase ultimate recovery by 21,500,000 bbl. The predicted ultimate recovery of 1,103 bbl per acre-ft is considered well above average for waterflood projects. Predicted reservoir performance has closely paralleled actual performance in many areas of investigation, viz., recovery in bbl per acre-ft, flood pattern, water percent at depletion, and attaining a reservoir pressure which would sustain production by natural flow. A departure from the generally accepted practices utilized in waterflooding has not been a detriment in successfully flooding the Hogg Sand reservoir. The major factors contributing to the high degree ofmore » success can be found in the excellent reservoir characteristics. Operating costs of $0.2429 per bbl, including amortization, is approximately 1/4 of that normally expected in waterfloods. Remaining oil after flooding is indicated to be 49% of the oil in place and clearly indicates a need for concentrated efforts in the field of tertiary recovery.« less

  12. Self-Reported and FEMA Flood Exposure Assessment after Hurricane Sandy: Association with Mental Health Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Lieberman-Cribbin, Wil; Liu, Bian; Schneider, Samantha; Schwartz, Rebecca; Taioli, Emanuela

    2017-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage; the long-term mental health consequences are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing mental health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. Here we assess the concordance in self-reported and Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy and determine the associations between flooding and anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Self-reported flood data and mental health symptoms were obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents (N = 1231) following Sandy. Self-reported flood data was compared to FEMA data obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to determine the relationship between flooding exposure and mental health outcomes. There were significant discrepancies between self-reported and FEMA flood exposure data. Self-reported dichotomous flooding was positively associated with anxiety (ORadj: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1-1.9]), depression (ORadj: 1.7 [1.3-2.2]), and PTSD (ORadj: 2.5 [1.8-3.4]), while self-reported continuous flooding was associated with depression (ORadj: 1.1 [1.01-1.12]) and PTSD (ORadj: 1.2 [1.1-1.2]). Models with FEMA dichotomous flooding (ORadj: 2.1 [1.5-2.8]) or FEMA continuous flooding (ORadj: 1.1 [1.1-1.2]) were only significantly associated with PTSD. Associations between mental health and flooding vary according to type of flood exposure measure utilized. Future hurricane preparedness and recovery efforts must integrate micro and macro-level flood exposures in order to accurately determine flood exposure risk during storms and realize the long-term importance of flooding on these three mental health symptoms.

  13. Self-Reported and FEMA Flood Exposure Assessment after Hurricane Sandy: Association with Mental Health Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Bian; Schneider, Samantha; Schwartz, Rebecca; Taioli, Emanuela

    2017-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage; the long-term mental health consequences are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing mental health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. Here we assess the concordance in self-reported and Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy and determine the associations between flooding and anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Self-reported flood data and mental health symptoms were obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents (N = 1231) following Sandy. Self-reported flood data was compared to FEMA data obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to determine the relationship between flooding exposure and mental health outcomes. There were significant discrepancies between self-reported and FEMA flood exposure data. Self-reported dichotomous flooding was positively associated with anxiety (ORadj: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.1–1.9]), depression (ORadj: 1.7 [1.3–2.2]), and PTSD (ORadj: 2.5 [1.8–3.4]), while self-reported continuous flooding was associated with depression (ORadj: 1.1 [1.01–1.12]) and PTSD (ORadj: 1.2 [1.1–1.2]). Models with FEMA dichotomous flooding (ORadj: 2.1 [1.5–2.8]) or FEMA continuous flooding (ORadj: 1.1 [1.1–1.2]) were only significantly associated with PTSD. Associations between mental health and flooding vary according to type of flood exposure measure utilized. Future hurricane preparedness and recovery efforts must integrate micro and macro-level flood exposures in order to accurately determine flood exposure risk during storms and realize the long-term importance of flooding on these three mental health symptoms. PMID:28129410

  14. Flood susceptibility mapping using a novel ensemble weights-of-evidence and support vector machine models in GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tehrany, Mahyat Shafapour; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Jebur, Mustafa Neamah

    2014-05-01

    Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters that occur frequently in Terengganu, Malaysia. Recently, ensemble based techniques are getting extremely popular in flood modeling. In this paper, weights-of-evidence (WoE) model was utilized first, to assess the impact of classes of each conditioning factor on flooding through bivariate statistical analysis (BSA). Then, these factors were reclassified using the acquired weights and entered into the support vector machine (SVM) model to evaluate the correlation between flood occurrence and each conditioning factor. Through this integration, the weak point of WoE can be solved and the performance of the SVM will be enhanced. The spatial database included flood inventory, slope, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), altitude, curvature, distance from the river, geology, rainfall, land use/cover (LULC), and soil type. Four kernel types of SVM (linear kernel (LN), polynomial kernel (PL), radial basis function kernel (RBF), and sigmoid kernel (SIG)) were used to investigate the performance of each kernel type. The efficiency of the new ensemble WoE and SVM method was tested using area under curve (AUC) which measured the prediction and success rates. The validation results proved the strength and efficiency of the ensemble method over the individual methods. The best results were obtained from RBF kernel when compared with the other kernel types. Success rate and prediction rate for ensemble WoE and RBF-SVM method were 96.48% and 95.67% respectively. The proposed ensemble flood susceptibility mapping method could assist researchers and local governments in flood mitigation strategies.

  15. Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across coastal watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bass, Benjamin; Bedient, Philip

    2018-03-01

    This study discusses the development and performance of a rapid prediction system capable of representing the joint rainfall-runoff and storm surge flood response of tropical cyclones (TCs) for probabilistic risk analysis. Due to the computational demand required for accurately representing storm surge with the high-fidelity ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model and its coupling with additional numerical models to represent rainfall-runoff, a surrogate or statistical model was trained to represent the relationship between hurricane wind- and pressure-field characteristics and their peak joint flood response typically determined from physics based numerical models. This builds upon past studies that have only evaluated surrogate models for predicting peak surge, and provides the first system capable of probabilistically representing joint flood levels from TCs. The utility of this joint flood prediction system is then demonstrated by improving upon probabilistic TC flood risk products, which currently account for storm surge but do not take into account TC associated rainfall-runoff. Results demonstrate the source apportionment of rainfall-runoff versus storm surge and highlight that slight increases in flood risk levels may occur due to the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge as compared to the Federal Emergency Management Association's (FEMAs) current practices.

  16. Applications of Experimental Suomi-NPP VIIRS Flood Inundation Maps in Operational Flood Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deweese, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is the most costly natural disaster across the globe. In 2016 flooding caused more fatalities than any other natural disaster in the United States. The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) is mandated to forecast rivers for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Since 2014, the NWS North Central River Forecast Center has utilized experimental near real time flood mapping products from the JPSS Suomi-NPP VIIRS satellite. These products have been demonstrated to provide reliable and high value information for forecasters in ice jam and snowmelt flooding in data sparse regions of the northern plains. In addition, they have proved valuable in rainfall induced flooding within the upper Mississippi River basin. Aerial photography and ground observations have validated the accuracy of the products. Examples are provided from numerous flooding events to demonstrate the operational application of this satellite derived information as a remotely sensed observational data source and it's utility in real time flood forecasting.

  17. Evaluation method to floodwater amount of difficult control and utilization in flood season for hyperconcentration rivers and its application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, X.

    2013-05-01

    The severe soil erosion in the Chinese Loess Plateau has resulted in high sediment concentration in runoff, which can cause tremendous pressure to the development and utilization of regional floodwater resources as well as the regional flood control and disaster mitigation. The floodwater amount of difficult control and utilization in flood season (FADCUFS) is an important part of the available amount of surface water resources. It also has a critical role in the sustainable development of water resources, especially for those hyperconcentration rivers (HRs) in the Loess Plateau. The evaluation of FADCUFS for HRs is an important issue in the field of hydrology and water resources. However, the understandings of its connotation, evaluation method, and nature are limited. Combined engineering measures with non-engineering ones, the evaluation method of FADCUFS for HRs was presented based on the angles of water quantity and quality. The method divides the FADCUFS into two parts in terms of the flood control operation characteristics of reservoir in HR and the relationship between water resources utilization and sediment in runoff, respectively. One is the amount of difficult regulation-control floodwater (DRCF), and the other is the volume of difficult utilization floodwater (DUF). A case study of the Bajiazui Reservoir, located in the typical Jinghe River (the second tributary of the Chinese Yellow River with high sediment concentration) was performed. Three typical years, wet year (1988), average year (1986), and dry years (1995 and 2000), were employed. According to the daily optimal operation model of Bajiazui Reservoir, the DRCF occurs for only the wet year instead of the average and the dry years. There are four times of DRCF with the amount of 26.74 m3/s (July 14), 14.58 m3/s (August 5), 10.27 m3/s (August 9), and 1.23 m3/s (August 12) in 1988, respectively, with a total amount of 4.56 million m3. A certain close relationship exists between the amount of DRCF and the flood inflows to Bajiazui. When the events of DRCF occur, there must be big flood inflows several days ago. And the outflows from the daily optimal operation model exceed their permitted limits of discharges. In addition, they are close to the measured runoffs from the Bajiazui Hydrological Station downstream the dam. It indicates that the presented daily optimal operation model has a high accuracy and can achieve credible results. On the other hand, the maximum grade approach is used to achieve the coefficients of surplus floodwater in flood season in terms of the daily outflows from the daily optimal operation model and the corresponding sediment concentration in runoffs. When the water resources utilization limit of sediment concentration in runoff is set as 10%, the volume of DUF in flood season of 1988 is then calculated as 108.29 million m3. So the value of FADCUFS can be determined as 112.85 (=4.56+108.29) million m3, accounting for 78.06% of the total discharge of reservoir in flood season. The study deepens the understandings of the connotation and the evaluation method of FADCUFS. It offers a new and reliable approach to assess the FADCUFS for HRs. The results are beneficial to the sustainable development of regional water resources.

  18. Insurance data as way to evaluate the performance of a sustainable urban drainage system (SUDS) in Augustenborg, Malmö

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sörensen, Johanna; Emilsson, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) has been put forward as a concept to improve stormwater management in urban areas. The damage reduction due to reduced flooding and storm water detention during extreme events is one of many important features of SUDS. As extreme events are rare, few assessments have earlier been made to evaluate the risk reduction. So far, most assessments have been done by hydraulic modelling, rather than analyses based on data from real flood events. In 2014, Malmö was hit with an extreme rainfall event which led to severe flooding in most parts of the city. This event gave an opportunity to evaluate the efficiency of SUDS during extreme events. In this study, flood claim data were analysed to evaluate flood risk reduction by the SUDS system in Augustenborg. Flood claim data were collected from both an insurance company, as well as the water utility company of Malmö for 5 neighbourhoods in close proximity in Malmö. The study uses the Augustenborg neighbourhood as an example of a retrofitted neighbourhood with an open SUDS. Augustenborg (Malmö, Sweden) was retrofitted 15 years ago using a combination of hard infrastructure and naturebased solutions, to alleviate basement flooding, to reduce combined sewer overflows (CSO) and to increase the ecological and aesthetical values of the area. The introduction of ponds, channels and green roofs dramatically changed the appearance of the area and the more or less regular floods were stopped. Augustenborg and its sustainable drainage system was compared with five similar neighbourhoods nearby. The long-term development of reported insurance claims in the selected neighbourhoods showed a reduction of flooding in Augustenborg compared to the nearby areas. Pre- and post-installation data showed a direct effect of the refurbishment with SUDS. Even though a few properties were flooded in Augustenborg, it was shown that the SUDS performed successfully during the extreme storm event that was the most severe flooding in Malmö in modern history. In conclusion, the SUDS in Augustenborg, Malmö, has been efficient in flood reduction during minor as well as severe flood events.

  19. Toward economic flood loss characterization via hazard simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Cunha, Luciana K.; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Smith, James A.

    2016-08-01

    Among all natural disasters, floods have historically been the primary cause of human and economic losses around the world. Improving flood risk management requires a multi-scale characterization of the hazard and associated losses—the flood loss footprint. But this is typically not available in a precise and timely manner, yet. To overcome this challenge, we propose a novel and multidisciplinary approach which relies on a computationally efficient hydrological model that simulates streamflow for scales ranging from small creeks to large rivers. We adopt a normalized index, the flood peak ratio (FPR), to characterize flood magnitude across multiple spatial scales. The simulated FPR is then shown to be a key statistical driver for associated economic flood losses represented by the number of insurance claims. Importantly, because it is based on a simulation procedure that utilizes generally readily available physically-based data, our flood simulation approach has the potential to be broadly utilized, even for ungauged and poorly gauged basins, thus providing the necessary information for public and private sector actors to effectively reduce flood losses and save lives.

  20. Towards a better understanding of flood generation and surface water inundation mechanisms using NASA remote sensing data products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucey, J.; Reager, J. T., II; Lopez, S. R.

    2017-12-01

    Floods annually cause several weather-related fatalities and financial losses. According to NOAA and FEMA, there were 43 deaths and 18 billion dollars paid out in flood insurance policies during 2005. The goal of this work is to improve flood prediction and flood risk assessment by creating a general model of predictability of extreme runoff generation using various NASA products. Using satellite-based flood inundation observations, we can relate surface water formation processes to changes in other hydrological variables, such as precipitation, storage and soil moisture, and understand how runoff generation response to these forcings is modulated by local topography and land cover. Since it is known that a flood event would cause an abnormal increase in surface water, we examine these underlying physical relationships in comparison with the Dartmouth Flood Observatory archive of historic flood events globally. Using ground water storage observations (GRACE), precipitation (TRMM or GPCP), land use (MODIS), elevation (SRTM) and surface inundation levels (SWAMPS), an assessment of geological and climate conditions can be performed for any location around the world. This project utilizes multiple linear regression analysis evaluating the relationship between surface water inundation, total water storage anomalies and precipitation values, grouped by average slope or land use, to determine their statistical relationships and influences on inundation data. This research demonstrates the potential benefits of using global data products for early flood prediction and will improve our understanding of runoff generation processes.

  1. Global and local scale flood discharge simulations in the Rhine River basin for flood risk reduction benchmarking in the Flagship Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

    2015-04-01

    The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to the the river gauging station data at the German part of the Rhine river basin. This is an important finding that both 0.5-km and 20-km BTOP models produce similar flood peak discharges although the 0.5-km BTOP model results indicate the importance of scale in the local flood hazard assessment. In summary, we highlight that this study serves as a demonstrative example of institutional collaboration and is stepping stone for the next step implementation of the IFI Flagship Project.

  2. Towards flash-flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, Efrat; Jacoby, Yael; Navon, Shilo; Bet-Halachmi, Erez

    2009-07-01

    Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model which utilizes radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on the 5 years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent 5-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire 10-year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

  3. Towards flash flood prediction in the dry Dead Sea region utilizing radar rainfall information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, E.; Jacoby, Y.; Navon, S.; Bet-Halachmi, E.

    2009-04-01

    Flash-flood warning models can save lives and protect various kinds of infrastructure. In dry climate regions, rainfall is highly variable and can be of high-intensity. Since rain gauge networks in such areas are sparse, rainfall information derived from weather radar systems can provide useful input for flash-flood models. This paper presents a flash-flood warning model utilizing radar rainfall data and applies it to two catchments that drain into the dry Dead Sea region. Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were derived using a rain gauge adjustment approach, either on a daily basis (allowing the adjustment factor to change over time, assuming available real-time gauge data) or using a constant factor value (derived from rain gauge data) over the entire period of the analysis. The QPEs served as input for a continuous hydrological model that represents the main hydrological processes in the region, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. The infiltration function is applied in a distributed mode while the routing and transmission loss functions are applied in a lumped mode. Model parameters were found by calibration based on five years of data for one of the catchments. Validation was performed for a subsequent five-year period for the same catchment and then for an entire ten year record for the second catchment. The probability of detection and false alarm rates for the validation cases were reasonable. Probabilistic flash-flood prediction is presented applying Monte Carlo simulations with an uncertainty range for the QPEs and model parameters. With low probability thresholds, one can maintain more than 70% detection with no more than 30% false alarms. The study demonstrates that a flash-flood-warning model is feasible for catchments in the area studied.

  4. Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization.

    PubMed

    Woodward, Michelle; Kapelan, Zoran; Gouldby, Ben

    2014-01-01

    It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered. © 2013 HR Wallingford Ltd.

  5. Documentary evidence of past floods in Europe and their utility in flood frequency estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kjeldsen, T. R.; Macdonald, N.; Lang, M.; Mediero, L.; Albuquerque, T.; Bogdanowicz, E.; Brázdil, R.; Castellarin, A.; David, V.; Fleig, A.; Gül, G. O.; Kriauciuniene, J.; Kohnová, S.; Merz, B.; Nicholson, O.; Roald, L. A.; Salinas, J. L.; Sarauskiene, D.; Šraj, M.; Strupczewski, W.; Szolgay, J.; Toumazis, A.; Vanneuville, W.; Veijalainen, N.; Wilson, D.

    2014-09-01

    This review outlines the use of documentary evidence of historical flood events in contemporary flood frequency estimation in European countries. The study shows that despite widespread consensus in the scientific literature on the utility of documentary evidence, the actual migration from academic to practical application has been limited. A detailed review of flood frequency estimation guidelines from different countries showed that the value of historical data is generally recognised, but practical methods for systematic and routine inclusion of this type of data into risk analysis are in most cases not available. Studies of historical events were identified in most countries, and good examples of national databases attempting to collate the available information were identified. The conclusion is that there is considerable potential for improving the reliability of the current flood risk assessments by harvesting the valuable information on past extreme events contained in the historical data sets.

  6. A MODIS-based automated flood monitoring system for southeast asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

    2017-09-01

    Flood disasters in Southeast Asia result in significant loss of life and economic damage. Remote sensing information systems designed to spatially and temporally monitor floods can help governments and international agencies formulate effective disaster response strategies during a flood and ultimately alleviate impacts to population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Recent destructive flood events in the Lower Mekong River Basin occurred in 2000, 2011, 2013, and 2016 (http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/historical_rec.htm, April 24, 2017). The large spatial distribution of flooded areas and lack of proper gauge data in the region makes accurate monitoring and assessment of impacts of floods difficult. Here, we discuss the utility of applying satellite-based Earth observations for improving flood inundation monitoring over the flood-prone Lower Mekong River Basin. We present a methodology for determining near real-time surface water extent associated with current and historic flood events by training surface water classifiers from 8-day, 250-m Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data spanning the length of the MODIS satellite record. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signature of permanent water bodies (MOD44W; Carroll et al., 2009) is used to train surface water classifiers which are applied to a time period of interest. From this, an operational nowcast flood detection component is produced using twice daily imagery acquired at 3-h latency which performs image compositing routines to minimize cloud cover. Case studies and accuracy assessments against radar-based observations for historic flood events are presented. The customizable system has been transferred to regional organizations and near real-time derived surface water products are made available through a web interface platform. Results highlight the potential of near real-time observation and impact assessment systems to serve as effective decision support tools for governments, international agencies, and disaster responders.

  7. An entropy decision approach in flash flood warning: rainfall thresholds definition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montesarchio, V.; Napolitano, F.; Ridolfi, E.

    2009-09-01

    Flash floods events are floods characterised by very rapid response of the basins to the storms, and often they involve loss of life and damage to common and private properties. Due to the specific space-time scale of this kind of flood, generally only a short lead time is available for triggering civil protection measures. Thresholds values specify the precipitation amount for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given cross section. The overcoming of these values could produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk, so it is possible to compare directly the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running on line real time forecasting systems. This study is focused on the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated minimising an utility function based on the informative entropy concept. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warning, false alarms and missed alarms.

  8. A non-stationary cost-benefit based bivariate extreme flood estimation approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo

    2018-02-01

    Cost-benefit analysis and flood frequency analysis have been integrated into a comprehensive framework to estimate cost effective design values. However, previous cost-benefit based extreme flood estimation is based on stationary assumptions and analyze dependent flood variables separately. A Non-Stationary Cost-Benefit based bivariate design flood estimation (NSCOBE) approach is developed in this study to investigate influence of non-stationarities in both the dependence of flood variables and the marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation. The dependence is modeled utilizing copula functions. Previous design flood selection criteria are not suitable for NSCOBE since they ignore time changing dependence of flood variables. Therefore, a risk calculation approach is proposed based on non-stationarities in both marginal probability distributions and copula functions. A case study with 54-year observed data is utilized to illustrate the application of NSCOBE. Results show NSCOBE can effectively integrate non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions into cost-benefit based design flood estimation. It is also found that there is a trade-off between maximum probability of exceedance calculated from copula functions and marginal distributions. This study for the first time provides a new approach towards a better understanding of influence of non-stationarities in both copula functions and marginal distributions on extreme flood estimation, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary bivariate design flood estimation across the world.

  9. Flood tolerance of oak seedlings from bottomland and upland sites

    Treesearch

    Michael P. Walsh; Jerry Van Sambeek; Mark Coggeshall; David Gwaze

    2009-01-01

    Artificial regeneration of oak species in floodplains presents numerous challenges because of the seasonal flooding associated with these areas. Utilizing not only flood-tolerant oak species, but also flood tolerant seed sources of the oak species, may serve to enhance seedling survival and growth rates. Despite the importance of these factors to hardwood forest...

  10. Assessing the Utility of a Satellite-Based Flood Inundation and Socio-Economic Impact Tool for the Lower Mekong River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    Flood disaster events in Southeast Asia result in significant loss of life and economic damage. Remote sensing information systems designed to monitor floods and assess their severity can help governments and international agencies formulate an effective response before and during flood events, and ultimately alleviate impacts to population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Recent examples of destructive flood events in the Lower Mekong River Basin occurred in 2000, 2011, and 2013. Floods can be particularly costly in the developing countries of Southeast Asia where large portions of the population live on or near the floodplain (Jonkman, 2005; Kirsch et al., 2012; Long and Trong, 2001; Stromberg. 2007). Regional studies (Knox, 1993; Mirza, 2002; Schiermeier, 2011; Västilä et al, 2010) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) projections suggest that precipitation extremes and flood frequency are increasing. Thus, improved systems to rapidly monitor flooding in vulnerable areas are needed. This study determines surface water extent for current and historic flood events by using stacks of historic multispectral Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 250-meter imagery and the spectral Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signatures of permanent water bodies (MOD44W). Supporting software tools automatically assess flood impacts to population and infrastructure to provide a rapid first set of impact numbers generated hours after the onset of an event. The near real-time component uses twice daily imagery acquired at 3-hour latency, and performs image compositing routines to minimize cloud cover. Case studies for historic flood events are presented. Results suggest that near real-time remote sensing-based observation and impact assessment systems can serve as effective regional decision support tools for governments, international agencies, and disaster responders.

  11. Sacrificial adsorbate for surfactants utilized in chemical floods of enhanced oil recovery operations

    DOEpatents

    Johnson, Jr., James S.; Westmoreland, Clyde G.

    1982-01-01

    The present invention is directed to a sacrificial or competitive adsorbate for surfactants contained in chemical flooding emulsions for enhanced oil recovery operations. The adsorbate to be utilized in the method of the present invention is a caustic effluent from the bleach stage or the weak black liquor from the digesters and pulp washers of the kraft pulping process. This effluent or weak black liquor is injected into an oil-bearing subterranean earth formation prior to or concurrent with the chemical flood emulsion and is adsorbed on the active mineral surfaces of the formation matrix so as to effectively reduce adsorption of surfactant in the chemical flood. Alternatively, the effluent or liquor can be injected into the subterranean earth formation subsequent to a chemical flood to displace the surfactant from the mineral surfaces for the recovery thereof.

  12. Sacrificial adsorbate for surfactants utilized in chemical floods of enhanced oil recovery operations

    DOEpatents

    Johnson, J.S. Jr.; Westmoreland, C.G.

    1980-08-20

    The present invention is directed to a sacrificial or competitive adsorbate for surfactants contained in chemical flooding emulsions for enhanced oil recovery operations. The adsorbate to be utilized in the method of the present invention is a caustic effluent from the bleach stage or the weak black liquor from the digesters and pulp washers of the kraft pulping process. This effluent or weak black liquor is injected into an oil-bearing subterranean earth formation prior to or concurrent with the chemical flood emulsion and is adsorbed on the active mineral surfaces of the formation matrix so as to effectively reduce adsorption of surfactant in the chemical flood. Alternatively, the effluent or liquor can be injected into the subterranean earth formation subsequent to a chemical flood to displace the surfactant from the mineral surfaces for the recovery thereof.

  13. On the value of satellite-based river discharge and river flood data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kettner, A. J.; Brakenridge, R.; van Praag, E.; Borrero, S.; Slayback, D. A.; Young, C.; Cohen, S.; Prades, L.; de Groeve, T.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide. According to the World Resources Institute, floods impact 21 million people every year and affect the global GDP by $96 billion. Providing accurate flood maps in near-real time (NRT) is critical to their utility to first responders. Also, in times of flooding, river gauging stations on location, if any, are of less use to monitor stage height as an approximation for water surface area, as often the stations themselves get washed out or peak water levels reach much beyond their design measuring capacity. In a joint effort with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, the European Commission Joint Research Centre and the University of Alabama, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) measures NRT: 1) river discharges, and 2) water inundation extents, both with a global coverage on a daily basis. Satellite-based passive microwave sensors and hydrological modeling are utilized to establish 'remote-sensing based discharge stations'. Once calibrated, daily discharge time series span from 1998 to the present. Also, the two MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites provide daily floodplain inundation extent with global coverage at a spatial resolution of 250m. DFO's mission is to provide easy access to NRT river and flood data products. Apart from the DFO web portal, several water extent products can be ingested by utilizing a Web Map Service (WMS), such as is established with for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region through the GeoSUR program portal. This effort includes implementing over 100 satellite discharge stations showing in NRT if a river is flooding, normal, or in low flow. New collaborative efforts have resulted in flood hazard maps which display flood extent as well as exceedance probabilities. The record length of our sensors allows mapping the 1.5 year, 5 year and 25 year flood extent. These can provide key information to water management and disaster response entities.

  14. Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

    2018-04-01

    Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards and by using concrete reference points to describe flooding scenarios rather than exceedance probabilities or frequencies.

  15. 44 CFR 60.5 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... Federal Insurance Administrator will provide the data upon which flood plain management regulations for... provided sufficient data to furnish a basis for these regulations in a particular community, the community shall obtain, review, and reasonably utilize data available from other Federal, State or other sources...

  16. 44 CFR 60.5 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... Federal Insurance Administrator will provide the data upon which flood plain management regulations for... provided sufficient data to furnish a basis for these regulations in a particular community, the community shall obtain, review, and reasonably utilize data available from other Federal, State or other sources...

  17. 44 CFR 60.5 - Flood plain management criteria for flood-related erosion-prone areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... Federal Insurance Administrator will provide the data upon which flood plain management regulations for... provided sufficient data to furnish a basis for these regulations in a particular community, the community shall obtain, review, and reasonably utilize data available from other Federal, State or other sources...

  18. Utilising social media contents for flood inundation mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schröter, Kai; Dransch, Doris; Fohringer, Joachim; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Data about the hazard and its consequences are scarce and not readily available during and shortly after a disaster. An information source which should be explored in a more efficient way is eyewitness accounts via social media. This research presents a methodology that leverages social media content to support rapid inundation mapping, including inundation extent and water depth in the case of floods. It uses quantitative data that are estimated from photos extracted from social media posts and their integration with established data. Due to the rapid availability of these posts compared to traditional data sources such as remote sensing data, areas affected by a flood, for example, can be determined quickly. Key challenges are to filter the large number of posts to a manageable amount of potentially useful inundation-related information, and to interpret and integrate the posts into mapping procedures in a timely manner. We present a methodology and a tool ("PostDistiller") to filter geo-located posts from social media services which include links to photos and to further explore this spatial distributed contextualized in situ information for inundation mapping. The June 2013 flood in Dresden is used as an application case study in which we evaluate the utilization of this approach and compare the resulting spatial flood patterns and inundation depths to 'traditional' data sources and mapping approaches like water level observations and remote sensing flood masks. The outcomes of the application case are encouraging. Strengths of the proposed procedure are that information for the estimation of inundation depth is rapidly available, particularly in urban areas where it is of high interest and of great value because alternative information sources like remote sensing data analysis do not perform very well. The uncertainty of derived inundation depth data and the uncontrollable availability of the information sources are major threats to the utility of the approach.

  19. Defining Flood Zone Transitions in Low-Gradient Coastal Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.

    2018-03-01

    Worldwide, coastal, and deltaic communities are susceptible to flooding from the individual and combined effects of rainfall excess and astronomic tide and storm surge inundation. Such flood events are a present (and future) cause of concern as observed from recent storms such as the 2016 Louisiana flood and Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. To assess flood risk across coastal landscapes, it is advantageous to first delineate flood transition zones, which we define as areas susceptible to hydrologic and coastal flooding and their collective interaction. We utilize numerical simulations combining rainfall excess and storm surge for the 2016 Louisiana flood to describe a flood transition zone for southeastern Louisiana. We show that the interaction of rainfall excess with coastal surge is nonlinear and less than the superposition of their individual components. Our analysis provides a foundation to define flooding zones across coastal landscapes throughout the world to support flood risk assessments.

  20. Study on reservoir time-varying design flood of inflow based on Poisson process with time-dependent parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jiqing; Huang, Jing; Li, Jianchang

    2018-06-01

    The time-varying design flood can make full use of the measured data, which can provide the reservoir with the basis of both flood control and operation scheduling. This paper adopts peak over threshold method for flood sampling in unit periods and Poisson process with time-dependent parameters model for simulation of reservoirs time-varying design flood. Considering the relationship between the model parameters and hypothesis, this paper presents the over-threshold intensity, the fitting degree of Poisson distribution and the design flood parameters are the time-varying design flood unit period and threshold discriminant basis, deduced Longyangxia reservoir time-varying design flood process at 9 kinds of design frequencies. The time-varying design flood of inflow is closer to the reservoir actual inflow conditions, which can be used to adjust the operating water level in flood season and make plans for resource utilization of flood in the basin.

  1. A Bayesian framework based on a Gaussian mixture model and radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (BayGmmKda V1.1) for spatial prediction of floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tien Bui, Dieu; Hoang, Nhat-Duc

    2017-09-01

    In this study, a probabilistic model, named as BayGmmKda, is proposed for flood susceptibility assessment in a study area in central Vietnam. The new model is a Bayesian framework constructed by a combination of a Gaussian mixture model (GMM), radial-basis-function Fisher discriminant analysis (RBFDA), and a geographic information system (GIS) database. In the Bayesian framework, GMM is used for modeling the data distribution of flood-influencing factors in the GIS database, whereas RBFDA is utilized to construct a latent variable that aims at enhancing the model performance. As a result, the posterior probabilistic output of the BayGmmKda model is used as flood susceptibility index. Experiment results showed that the proposed hybrid framework is superior to other benchmark models, including the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system and the support vector machine. To facilitate the model implementation, a software program of BayGmmKda has been developed in MATLAB. The BayGmmKda program can accurately establish a flood susceptibility map for the study region. Accordingly, local authorities can overlay this susceptibility map onto various land-use maps for the purpose of land-use planning or management.

  2. Remote Sensing and River Discharge Forecasting for Major Rivers in South Asia (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webster, P. J.; Hopson, T. M.; Hirpa, F. A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; De-Groeve, T.; Shrestha, K.; Gebremichael, M.; Restrepo, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    The South Asia is a flashpoint for natural disasters particularly flooding of the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra has profound societal impacts for the region and globally. The 2007 Brahmaputra floods affecting India and Bangladesh, the 2008 avulsion of the Kosi River in India, the 2010 flooding of the Indus River in Pakistan and the 2013 Uttarakhand exemplify disasters on scales almost inconceivable elsewhere. Their frequent occurrence of floods combined with large and rapidly growing populations, high levels of poverty and low resilience, exacerbate the impact of the hazards. Mitigation of these devastating hazards are compounded by limited flood forecast capability, lack of rain/gauge measuring stations and forecast use within and outside the country, and transboundary data sharing on natural hazards. Here, we demonstrate the utility of remotely-derived hydrologic and weather products in producing skillful flood forecasting information without reliance on vulnerable in situ data sources. Over the last decade a forecast system has been providing operational probabilistic forecasts of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in Bangldesh was developed (Hopson and Webster 2010). The system utilizes ECMWF weather forecast uncertainty information and ensemble weather forecasts, rain gauge and satellite-derived precipitation estimates, together with the limited near-real-time river stage observations from Bangladesh. This system has been expanded to Pakistan and has successfully forecast the 2010-2012 flooding (Shrestha and Webster 2013). To overcome the in situ hydrological data problem, recent efforts in parallel with the numerical modeling have utilized microwave satellite remote sensing of river widths to generate operational discharge advective-based forecasts for the Ganges and Brahmaputra. More than twenty remotely locations upstream of Bangldesh were used to produce stand-alone river flow nowcasts and forecasts at 1-15 days lead time. showing that satellite-based flow estimates are a useful source of dynamical surface water information in data-scarce regions and that they could be used for model calibration and data assimilation purposes in near-time hydrologic forecast applications (Hirpa et al. 2013). More recent efforts during this year's monsoon season are optimally combining these different independent sources of river forecast information along with archived flood inundation imagery of the Dartmouth Flood Observatory to improve the visualization and overall skill of the ongoing CFAB ensemble weather forecast-based flood forecasting system within the unique context of the ongoing flood forecasting efforts for Bangladesh.

  3. 77 FR 63299 - Notice of Intent To Prepare a Joint Environmental Impact Statement/Environmental Impact Report...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-10-16

    ... operation rules of Folsom Dam and Reservoir to reduce flood risk to the Sacramento area by utilizing the... the Dam's new flood operations plan, with the intention of meeting flood risk management objectives... direction to reduce Folsom Reservoir variable space allocation from the current operating range of 400,000...

  4. Flood AI: An Intelligent Systems for Discovery and Communication of Disaster Knowledge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demir, I.; Sermet, M. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Communities are not immune from extreme events or natural disasters that can lead to large-scale consequences for the nation and public. Improving resilience to better prepare, plan, recover, and adapt to disasters is critical to reduce the impacts of extreme events. The National Research Council (NRC) report discusses the topic of how to increase resilience to extreme events through a vision of resilient nation in the year 2030. The report highlights the importance of data, information, gaps and knowledge challenges that needs to be addressed, and suggests every individual to access the risk and vulnerability information to make their communities more resilient. This project presents an intelligent system, Flood AI, for flooding to improve societal preparedness by providing a knowledge engine using voice recognition, artificial intelligence, and natural language processing based on a generalized ontology for disasters with a primary focus on flooding. The knowledge engine utilizes the flood ontology and concepts to connect user input to relevant knowledge discovery channels on flooding by developing a data acquisition and processing framework utilizing environmental observations, forecast models, and knowledge bases. Communication channels of the framework includes web-based systems, agent-based chat bots, smartphone applications, automated web workflows, and smart home devices, opening the knowledge discovery for flooding to many unique use cases.

  5. Behavior of aircraft antiskid braking systems on dry and wet runway surfaces: Hydromechanically controlled system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tanner, J. A.; Stubbs, S. M.; Smith, E. G.

    1981-01-01

    The investigation utilized one main gear wheel, brake, and tire assembly of a McDonnell Douglas DC-9 series 10 airplane. The landing-gear strut was replaced by a dynamometer. During maximum braking, average braking behavior indexes based upon brake pressure, brake torque, and drag-force friction coefficient developed by the antiskid system were generally higher on dry surfaces than on wet surfaces. The three braking behavior indexes gave similar results but should not be used interchangeably as a measure of the braking of this antiskid sytem. During the transition from a dry to a flooded surface under heavy braking, the wheel entered into a deep skid but the antiskid system reacted quickly by reducing brake pressure and performed normally during the remainder of the run on the flooded surface. The brake-pressure recovery following transition from a flooded to a dry surface was shown to be a function of the antiskid modulating orifice.

  6. Some effects of grooved runway configurations on aircraft tire braking traction under flooded runway conditions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Byrdsong, T. A.

    1973-01-01

    An experimental investigation was conducted to study the effect of grooved runway configurations on aircraft tire braking traction on flooded runway surfaces. The investigation was performed, utilizing size 49 x 17, type VII, aircraft tires with an inflation pressure of 170 lb per square inch at ground speeds up to approximately 120 knots. The results of this investigation indicate that when the runway is flooded, grooved surfaces provide better braking traction than an ungrooved surface and, in general, the level of braking traction was found to improve as the tire bearing pressure was increased because of an increase in the groove area of either the surface or the tire tread. Rounding the groove edges tended to degrade the tire braking capability from that developed on the same groove configuration with sharp edges. Results also indicate that braking friction coefficients for the test tires and runway surfaces decreased as ground speed was increased because of the hydroplaning effects.

  7. Utilization of Meteorological Satellite Imagery for World-Wide Environmental Monitoring the Lower Mississippi River Flood of 1979 - Case 1. [St. Louis, Missouri

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Helfert, M. R.; Mccrary, D. G.; Gray, T. I. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    The 1979 Lower Mississippi River flood was selected as a test case of environmental disaster monitoring utilizing NOAA-n imagery. A small scale study of the St. Louis Missouri area comparing ERTS-1 (LANDSAT) and NOAA-2 imagery and flood studies using only LANDSAT imagery for mapping the Rad River of the North, and Nimbus-5 imagery for East Australia show the nonmeteorological applications of NOAA satellites. While the level of NOAA-n imagery detail is not that of a LANDSAT image, for operational environmental monitoring users the NOAA-n imagery may provide acceptable linear resolution and spectral isolation.

  8. Prenatal maternal stress shapes children's theory of mind: the QF2011 Queensland Flood Study.

    PubMed

    Simcock, G; Kildea, S; Elgbeili, G; Laplante, D P; Cobham, V; King, S

    2017-08-01

    Research shows that stress in pregnancy has powerful and enduring effects on many facets of child development, including increases in behavior problems and neurodevelopmental disorders. Theory of mind is an important aspect of child development that is predictive of successful social functioning and is impaired in children with autism. A number of factors related to individual differences in theory of mind have been identified, but whether theory of mind development is shaped by prenatal events has not yet been examined. In this study we utilized a sudden onset flood that occurred in Queensland, Australia in 2011 to examine whether disaster-related prenatal maternal stress predicts child theory of mind and whether sex of the child or timing of the stressor in pregnancy moderates these effects. Higher levels of flood-related maternal subjective stress, but not objective hardship, predicted worse theory of mind at 30 months (n=130). Further, maternal cognitive appraisal of the flood moderated the effects of stress in pregnancy on girls' theory of mind performance but not boys'. These results illuminate how stress in pregnancy can shape child development and the findings are discussed in relation to biological mechanisms in pregnancy and stress theory.

  9. Flood Scenario Simulation and Disaster Estimation of Ba-Ma Creek Watershed in Nantou County, Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, S. H.; Hsu, Y. K.

    2018-04-01

    The present study proposed several scenario simulations of flood disaster according to the historical flood event and planning requirement in Ba-Ma Creek Watershed located in Nantou County, Taiwan. The simulations were made using the FLO-2D model, a numerical model which can compute the velocity and depth of flood on a two-dimensional terrain. Meanwhile, the calculated data were utilized to estimate the possible damage incurred by the flood disaster. The results thus obtained can serve as references for disaster prevention. Moreover, the simulated results could be employed for flood disaster estimation using the method suggested by the Water Resources Agency of Taiwan. Finally, the conclusions and perspectives are presented.

  10. Using Deep Learning to Assess Future Flood Magnitude and Frequency in the Semi-arid and Snowmelt-dominated Missouri River Headwater Catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francois, B.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    There has been growing interest for hydrologists and water resources managers about the emergence of non-stationarities associated with the hydro-meteorological processes driving floods. Among the potential causes of non-stationarity, climate change is deemed a major one. Understanding the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes of the Missouri River is challenging. In this region, floods are mainly triggered by snow melting, either when temperatures get mild in spring/summer, or when rain falls over snow in early spring and fall. The sparsely gauged and topographically complex area degrades the value of hydrological modeling that otherwise might foreshadow the evolution of hydro-meteorological interactions between precipitation, temperature and snow. In this work, we explore the utility of Deep Learning (DL) for assessing flood magnitude change under climate change. By using multiple hidden layers within artificial neural networks (ANNs), DL allows modeling complex interactions between inputs (i.e. precipitation, temperature and snow water equivalent) and outputs (i.e. water discharge). The objective is to develop a parsimonious model of the flood processes that maintain the contribution of nonstationary factors and their potential evolution under climate change, while reducing extraneous factors not central to flood generation. By comparing ANN's performance with outputs from two hydrological models of differing complexity (i.e. VIC, SAC-SMA), we evaluate the modeling capability of ANNs for three snow-dominated catchments that represent different flood regimes (Yellowstone River at Billings (MT; USGS 06214500), Powder River near Locate (MT; USGS 06326500) and James River near Scotland (SD; USGS 06478500)). Nonstationary inputs for each flood process model are derived from dynamically downscaled climate projections (from the NARCCAP experiment) to project floods in the three selected catchments. The uncertainty of future snow projections as well as its impact on spring flooding are explored. Future flood frequency obtained with ANNs is compared with the one obtained thanks to hydrological models and with the traditional approach as described in Bulletin 17C. Keywords: Flood, Climate-change, Snow, Neural Networks

  11. Flood Vulnerability Analysis of the part of Karad Region, Satara District, Maharashtra using Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warghat, Sumedh R.; Das, Sandipan; Doad, Atul; Mali, Sagar; Moon, Vishal S.

    2012-07-01

    Karad City is situated on the bank of confluence of river Krishna & Koyana, which is severely flood prone area. The floodwaters enter the city through the roads and disrupt the infrastructure in the whole city. Furthermore, due to negligence of the authorities and unplanned growth of the city, the people living in the city have harnessed the natural flow of water by constructing unnecessary embankments in the river Koyna. Due to this reason now river koyna is flowing in the form of a narrow channel, which very easily over-flows during very minor flooding.Flood Vulnerabilty Analysis has been done for the karad region of satara district, maharashtra using remote sensing and geographic information system technique. The aim of this study is to identify flood vulnerability zone by using GIS and RS technique and an attempt has been to demonstrat the application of remote sensing and GIS in order to map flood vulnerabilty area by utilizing ArcMap, and Erdas software. Flood vulnerabilty analysis of part the Karad Regian of Satara District, Maharashtra has been carried out with the objectives - Identify the Flood Prone area in the Koyana and Krishna river basin, Calculate surface runoff and Delineate flood sensitive areas. Delineate classified hazard Map, Evaluate the Flood affected area, Prepare the Flood Vulnerability Map by utilizing Remote Sensing and GIS technique. (C.J. Kumanan;S.M. Ramasamy)The study is based on GIS and spatial technique is used for analysis and understanding of flood problem in Karad Tahsil. The flood affected areas of the different magnitude has been identified and mapped using Arc GIS software. The analysis is useful for local planning authority for identification of risk areas and taking proper decision in right moment. In the analysis causative factors for flooding in watershed are taken into account as annual rainfall, size of watershed, basin slope, drainage density of natural channels and land use. (Dinand Alkema; Farah Aziz.)This study of flood vulnerable area determination in a part of Karad Tahsil is employed to illustrate the different approaches.

  12. Rapid Risk Evaluation (ER2) Using MS Excel Spreadsheet: a Case Study of Fredericton (new Brunswick, Canada)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGrath, H.; Stefanakis, E.; Nastev, M.

    2016-06-01

    Conventional knowledge of the flood hazard alone (extent and frequency) is not sufficient for informed decision-making. The public safety community needs tools and guidance to adequately undertake flood hazard risk assessment in order to estimate respective damages and social and economic losses. While many complex computer models have been developed for flood risk assessment, they require highly trained personnel to prepare the necessary input (hazard, inventory of the built environment, and vulnerabilities) and analyze model outputs. As such, tools which utilize open-source software or are built within popular desktop software programs are appealing alternatives. The recently developed Rapid Risk Evaluation (ER2) application runs scenario based loss assessment analyses in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. User input is limited to a handful of intuitive drop-down menus utilized to describe the building type, age, occupancy and the expected water level. In anticipation of local depth damage curves and other needed vulnerability parameters, those from the U.S. FEMA's Hazus-Flood software have been imported and temporarily accessed in conjunction with user input to display exposure and estimated economic losses related to the structure and the content of the building. Building types and occupancies representative of those most exposed to flooding in Fredericton (New Brunswick) were introduced and test flood scenarios were run. The algorithm was successfully validated against results from the Hazus-Flood model for the same building types and flood depths.

  13. Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

    2017-12-01

    Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters. Overall, the probability of detection of an event with a return period of 10 years is 62%. 44% of all 10-year flood peaks can be detected with a timing error of 2 hours or less. These results indicate that the modeling system can provide useful information about the timing and magnitude of flood events at ungauged sites.

  14. The potential of crowdsourcing and mobile technology to support flood disaster risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    See, Linda; McCallum, Ian; Liu, Wei; Mechler, Reinhard; Keating, Adriana; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mochizuki, Junko; Fritz, Steffen; Dugar, Sumit; Arestegui, Michael; Szoenyi, Michael; Laso-Bayas, Juan-Carlos; Burek, Peter; French, Adam; Moorthy, Inian

    2016-04-01

    The last decade has seen a rise in citizen science and crowdsourcing for carrying out a variety of tasks across a number of different fields, most notably the collection of data such as the identification of species (e.g. eBird and iNaturalist) and the classification of images (e.g. Galaxy Zoo and Geo-Wiki). Combining human computing with the proliferation of mobile technology has resulted in vast amounts of geo-located data that have considerable value across multiple domains including flood disaster risk reduction. Crowdsourcing technologies, in the form of online mapping, are now being utilized to great effect in post-disaster mapping and relief efforts, e.g. the activities of Humanitarian OpenStreetMap, complementing official channels of relief (e.g. Haiti, Nepal and New York). Disaster event monitoring efforts have been further complemented with the use of social media (e.g. twitter for earthquakes, flood monitoring, and fire detection). Much of the activity in this area has focused on ex-post emergency management while there is considerable potential for utilizing crowdsourcing and mobile technology for vulnerability assessment, early warning and to bolster resilience to flood events. This paper examines the use of crowdsourcing and mobile technology for measuring and monitoring flood hazards, exposure to floods, and vulnerability, drawing upon examples from the literature and ongoing projects on flooding and food security at IIASA.

  15. Variation in flooding-induced morphological traits in natural populations of white clover (Trifolium repens) and their effects on plant performance during soil flooding

    PubMed Central

    Huber, Heidrun; Jacobs, Elke; Visser, Eric J. W.

    2009-01-01

    Background and Aims Soil flooding leads to low soil oxygen concentrations and thereby negatively affects plant growth. Differences in flooding tolerance have been explained by the variation among species in the extent to which traits related to acclimation were expressed. However, our knowledge of variation within natural species (i.e. among individual genotypes) in traits related to flooding tolerance is very limited. Such data could tell us on which traits selection might have taken place, and will take place in future. The aim of the present study was to show that variation in flooding-tolerance-related traits is present among genotypes of the same species, and that both the constitutive variation and the plastic variation in flooding-induced changes in trait expression affect the performance of genotypes during soil flooding. Methods Clones of Trifolium repens originating from a river foreland were subjected to either drained, control conditions or to soil flooding. Constitutive expression of morphological traits was recorded on control plants, and flooding-induced changes in expression were compared with these constitutive expression levels. Moreover, the effect of both constitutive and flooding-induced trait expression on plant performance was determined. Key Results Constitutive and plastic variation of several morphological traits significantly affected plant performance. Even relatively small increases in root porosity and petiole length contributed to better performance during soil flooding. High specific leaf area, by contrast, was negatively correlated with performance during flooding. Conclusions The data show that different genotypes responded differently to soil flooding, which could be linked to variation in morphological trait expression. As flooded and drained conditions exerted different selection pressures on trait expression, the optimal value for constitutive and plastic traits will depend on the frequency and duration of flooding. These data will help us understanding the mechanisms affecting short- and long-term dynamics in flooding-prone ecosystems. PMID:18713824

  16. Proficiency feasibility of multi-walled carbon nanotubes in the presence of polymeric surfactant on enhanced oil recovery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nezhad, Javad Razavi; Jafari, Arezou; Abdollahi, Mahdi

    2018-01-01

    Enhanced heavy oil recovery methods are widely utilized to increase oil recovery. For this purpose, polymer and surfactant flooding have been used extensively. Recently, polymeric surfactant flooding has become an attractive alternative to sole polymer flooding due to their capability of providing an increase in solution viscosity and a decrease in interfacial tension, which are both beneficial for efficiency of the process. Applying nanoparticles as an additive to polymer solutions is a method to improve viscosity and alter rock wettability. Therefore, in this research, multi-walled carbon nanotube (MWCNT) was mixed with a polymeric surfactant of polyacrylamide-graft-lignin copolymer (PAM-g-L) synthesized via radical grafting reaction. Moreover, several solutions with different concentrations of nanoparticles with PAM-g-L were prepared. The solutions were injected into a micromodel to evaluate the PAM-g-L flooding efficiency in presence of the multi-walled carbon nanotubes. The results of micromodel flooding showed that increasing MWCNT concentration results in lower sweep efficiencies; and consequently, oil production will decrease. Therefore, MWCNT along with PAM-g-L has an unacceptable performance in enhanced heavy oil recovery. But data of wettability tests revealed that MWCNT can change the wettability from oil-wet to water-wet. In addition, the combination of the PAM-g-L and MWCNT in a solution will cause more water-wet condition.

  17. Environmental impact assessment using a utility-based recursive evidential reasoning approach for structural flood mitigation measures in Metro Manila, Philippines.

    PubMed

    Gilbuena, Romeo; Kawamura, Akira; Medina, Reynaldo; Nakagawa, Naoko; Amaguchi, Hideo

    2013-12-15

    In recent years, the practice of environmental impact assessment (EIA) has created significant awareness on the role of environmentally sound projects in sustainable development. In view of the recent studies on the effects of climate change, the Philippine government has given high priority to the construction of flood control structures to alleviate the destructive effects of unmitigated floods, especially in highly urbanized areas like Metro Manila. EIA thus, should be carefully and effectively carried out to maximize or optimize the potential benefits that can be derived from structural flood mitigation measures (SFMMs). A utility-based environmental assessment approach may significantly aid flood managers and decision-makers in planning for effective and environmentally sound SFMM projects. This study proposes a utility-based assessment approach using the rapid impact assessment matrix (RIAM) technique, coupled with the evidential reasoning approach, to rationally and systematically evaluate the ecological and socio-economic impacts of 4 planned SFMM projects (i.e. 2 river channel improvements and 2 new open channels) in Metro Manila. Results show that the overall environmental effects of each of the planned SFMM projects are positive, which indicate that the utility of the positive impacts would generally outweigh the negative impacts. The results also imply that the planned river channel improvements will yield higher environmental benefits over the planned open channels. This study was able to present a clear and rational approach in the examination of overall environmental effects of SFMMs, which provides valuable insights that can be used by decision-makers and policy makers to improve the EIA practice and evaluation of projects in the Philippines. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Utility of flood warning systems for emergency management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Menoni, Scira

    2010-05-01

    The presentation is focused on a simple and crucial question for warning systems: are flood and hydrological modelling and forecasting helpful to manage flood events? Indeed, it is well known that a warning process can be invalidated by inadequate forecasts so that the accuracy and robustness of the previsional model is a key issue for any flood warning procedure. However, one problem still arises at this perspective: when forecasts can be considered to be adequate? According to Murphy (1993, Wea. Forecasting 8, 281-293), forecasts hold no intrinsic value but they acquire it through their ability to influence the decisions made by their users. Moreover, we can add that forecasts value depends on the particular problem at stake showing, this way, a multifaceted nature. As a result, forecasts verification should not be seen as a universal process, instead it should be tailored to the particular context in which forecasts are implemented. This presentation focuses on warning problems in mountain regions, whereas the short time which is distinctive of flood events makes the provision of adequate forecasts particularly significant. In this context, the quality of a forecast is linked to its capability to reduce the impact of a flood by improving the correctness of the decision about issuing (or not) a warning as well as of the implementation of a proper set of actions aimed at lowering potential flood damages. The present study evaluates the performance of a real flood forecasting system from this perspective. In detail, a back analysis of past flood events and available verification tools have been implemented. The final objective was to evaluate the system ability to support appropriate decisions with respect not only to the flood characteristics but also to the peculiarities of the area at risk as well as to the uncertainty of forecasts. This meant to consider also flood damages and forecasting uncertainty among the decision variables. Last but not least, the presentation explains how the procedure implemented in the case study could support the definition of a proper warning rule.

  19. A Prototype Visualization of Real-time River Drainage Network Response to Rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2011-12-01

    The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to and visualization of flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, and other flood-related data for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS streams rainfall data from NEXRAD radar, and provides three interfaces including animation for rainfall intensity, daily rainfall totals and rainfall accumulations for past 14 days for Iowa. A real-time interactive visualization interface is developed using past rainfall intensity data. The interface creates community-based rainfall products on-demand using watershed boundaries of each community as a mask. Each individual rainfall pixel is tracked in the interface along the drainage network, and the ones drains to same pixel location are accumulated. The interface loads recent rainfall data in five minute intervals that are combined with current values. Latest web technologies are utilized for the development of the interface including HTML 5 Canvas, and JavaScript. The performance of the interface is optimized to run smoothly on modern web browsers. The interface controls allow users to change internal parameters of the system, and operation conditions of the animation. The interface will help communities understand the effects of rainfall on water transport in stream and river networks and make better-informed decisions regarding the threat of floods. This presentation provides an overview of a unique visualization interface and discusses future plans for real-time dynamic presentations of streamflow forecasting.

  20. A Web-based Data Intensive Visualization of Real-time River Drainage Network Response to Rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

    2012-04-01

    The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to and visualization of flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, and other flood-related data for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS streams rainfall data from NEXRAD radar, and provides three interfaces including animation for rainfall intensity, daily rainfall totals and rainfall accumulations for past 14 days for Iowa. A real-time interactive visualization interface is developed using past rainfall intensity data. The interface creates community-based rainfall products on-demand using watershed boundaries of each community as a mask. Each individual rainfall pixel is tracked in the interface along the drainage network, and the ones drains to same pixel location are accumulated. The interface loads recent rainfall data in five minute intervals that are combined with current values. Latest web technologies are utilized for the development of the interface including HTML 5 Canvas, and JavaScript. The performance of the interface is optimized to run smoothly on modern web browsers. The interface controls allow users to change internal parameters of the system, and operation conditions of the animation. The interface will help communities understand the effects of rainfall on water transport in stream and river networks and make better-informed decisions regarding the threat of floods. This presentation provides an overview of a unique visualization interface and discusses future plans for real-time dynamic presentations of streamflow forecasting.

  1. Balancing-out floods and droughts: Opportunities to utilize floodwater harvesting and groundwater storage for agricultural development in Thailand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavelic, Paul; Srisuk, Kriengsak; Saraphirom, Phayom; Nadee, Suwanchai; Pholkern, Kewaree; Chusanathas, Sumrit; Munyou, Sitisak; Tangsutthinon, Theerasak; Intarasut, Teerawash; Smakhtin, Vladimir

    2012-11-01

    SummaryThailand's naturally high seasonal endowment of water resources brings with it the regularly experienced problems associated with floods during the wet season and droughts during the dry season. Downstream-focused engineering solutions that address flooding are vital, but do not necessarily capture the potential for basin-scale improvements to water security, food production and livelihood enhancement. Managed aquifer recharge, typically applied to annual harvesting of wet season flows in dry climates, can also be applied to capture, store and recover episodic extreme flood events in humid environments. In the Chao Phraya River Basin it is estimated that surplus flows recorded downstream above a critical threshold could be harvested and recharged within the shallow alluvial aquifers in a distributed manner upstream of flood prone areas without significantly impacting existing large-medium storages or the Gulf and deltaic ecosystems. Capturing peak flows approximately 1 year in four by dedicating around 200 km2 of land to groundwater recharge would reduce the magnitude of flooding and socio-economic impacts and generate around USD 250 M/year in export earnings for smallholder rainfed farmers through dry season cash cropping without unduly compromising the demands of existing water users. It is proposed that farmers in upstream riparian zones be co-opted as flood harvesters and thus contribute to improved floodwater management through simple water management technologies that enable agricultural lands to be put to higher productive use. Local-scale site suitability and technical performance assessments along with revised governance structures would be required. It is expected that such an approach would also be applicable to other coastal-discharging basins in Thailand and potentially throughout the Asia region.

  2. Continuous earlywood vessels chronologies in floodplain ring-porous species can improve dendrohydrological reconstructions of spring high flows and flood levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kames, S.; Tardif, J. C.; Bergeron, Y.

    2016-03-01

    Plants respond to environmental stimuli through changes in growth and development. Characteristics of wood cells such as the cross-sectional area of vessel elements (hereafter referred to as vessels) may store information about environmental factors present at the time of vessel differentiation. The analysis of vessel characteristics therefore offers a different time resolution than annual ring width because vessels in tree rings differentiate within days to a few weeks. Little research has been conducted on the sensitivity of earlywood vessels in ring-porous species in response to flooding. The general objectives of this study were to determine the plasticity of earlywood vessel to high flows and spring flooding in floodplain black ash (Fraxinus nigra Marsh.) trees and to assess the utility of developing continuous earlywood vessel chronologies in dendrohydrological reconstruction. In contrast, most dendrohydrological studies until now have mainly used vessel anomalies (flood rings) as discrete variables to identify exceptional flood events. The study area is located in the boreal region of northwestern Québec. Vessel and ring-width chronologies were generated from F. nigra trees growing on the floodplain of Lake Duparquet. Spring discharge had among all hydro-climatic variables the strongest impact on vessel formation and this signal was coherent spatially and in the frequency domain. The mean vessel area chronology was significantly and negatively correlated to discharge and both the linearity and the strength of this association were unique. In floodplain F. nigra trees, spring flooding promoted the formation of more abundant but smaller earlywood vessels. Earlywood vessels chronologies were also significantly associated with other hydrological indicators like Lake Duparquet's ice break-up date and both ice-scar frequency and height chronologies. These significant relationships stress the utility of developing continuous vessels chronologies for hydrological reconstructions prior to instrumental data. Continuous earlywood vessel chronologies may also be useful in determining the impact of altered hydrological regime in floodplain habitat regulated by spring floods. Future research should involve quantifying the impact of high flows and flooding on other cell constituents and also determining the plasticity and utility of continuous anatomical series in floodplain diffuse-porous species.

  3. Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

    2015-12-01

    Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

  4. Using Multiple Space Assests with In-Situ Measurements to Track Flooding in Thailand

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chien, Steve; Doubleday, Joshua; Mclaren, David; Tran, Daniel; Khunboa, Chatchai; Leelapatra, Watis; Pergamon, Vichain; Tanpipat, Veerachai; Chitradon, Royal; Boonya-aroonnet, Surajate; hide

    2001-01-01

    Increasing numbers of space assets can enable coordinated measurements of flooding phenomena to enhance tracking of extreme events. We describe the use of space and ground measurements to target further measurements as part of a flood monitoring system in Thailand. We utilize rapidly delivered MODIS data to detect major areas of flooding and the target the Earth Observing One Advanced Land Imager sensor to acquire higher spatial resolution data. Automatic surface water extent mapping products delivered to interested parties. We are also working to extend our network to include in-situ sensing networks and additional space assets.

  5. Rainfall threshold definition using an entropy decision approach and radar data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montesarchio, V.; Ridolfi, E.; Russo, F.; Napolitano, F.

    2011-07-01

    Flash flood events are floods characterised by a very rapid response of basins to storms, often resulting in loss of life and property damage. Due to the specific space-time scale of this type of flood, the lead time available for triggering civil protection measures is typically short. Rainfall threshold values specify the amount of precipitation for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given river cross section. If the threshold values are exceeded, it can produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk. It is therefore possible to directly compare the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running online real-time forecasting systems. The focus of this study is the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated by minimising a utility function based on the informative entropy concept and by using a simulation approach based on radar data. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warnings, false alarms and missed alarms.

  6. Health Care Access and Utilization after the 2010 Pakistan Floods.

    PubMed

    Jacquet, Gabrielle A; Kirsch, Thomas; Durrani, Aqsa; Sauer, Lauren; Doocy, Shannon

    2016-10-01

    Introduction The 2010 floods submerged more than one-fifth of Pakistan's land area and affected more than 20 million people. Over 1.6 million homes were damaged or destroyed and 2,946 direct injuries and 1,985 deaths were reported. Infrastructure damage was widespread, including critical disruptions to the power and transportation networks. Hypothesis Damage and loss of critical infrastructure will affect the population's ability to seek and access adequate health care for years to come. This study sought to evaluate factors associated with access to health care in the aftermath of the 2010 Pakistan floods. A population-proportional, randomized cluster-sampling survey method with 80 clusters of 20 (1,600) households of the flood-affected population was used. Heads of households were surveyed approximately six months after flood onset. Multivariate analysis was used to determine significance. A total of 77.8% of households reported needing health services within the first month after the floods. Household characteristics, including rural residence location, large household size, and lower pre- and post-flood income, were significantly associated (P<.05) with inadequate access to health care after the disaster. Households with inadequate access to health care were more likely to have a death or injury in the household. Significantly higher odds of inadequate access to health care were observed in rural populations (adjusted OR 4.26; 95% CI, 1.89-9.61). Adequate health care access after the 2010 Pakistani floods was associated with urban residence location, suggesting that locating health care providers in rural areas may be difficult. Access to health services also was associated with post-flood income level, suggesting health resources are not readily available to households suffering great income losses. Jacquet GA , Kirsch T , Durrani A , Sauer L , Doocy S . Health care access and utilization after the 2010 Pakistan floods. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(5):485-491.

  7. Characterizing Global Flood Wave Travel Times to Optimize the Utility of Near Real-Time Satellite Remote Sensing Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, G. H.; David, C. H.; Andreadis, K. M.; Emery, C. M.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Earth observing satellites provide valuable near real-time (NRT) information about flood occurrence and magnitude worldwide. This NRT information can be used in early flood warning systems and other flood management applications to save lives and mitigate flood damage. However, these NRT products are only useful to early flood warning systems if they are quickly made available, with sufficient time for flood mitigation actions to be implemented. More specifically, NRT data latency, or the time period between the satellite observation and when the user has access to the information, must be less than the time it takes a flood to travel from the flood observation location to a given downstream point of interest. Yet the paradigm that "lower latency is always better" may not necessarily hold true in river systems due to tradeoffs between data latency and data quality. Further, the existence of statistical breaks in the global distribution of flood wave travel time (i.e. a jagged statistical distribution) would represent preferable latencies for river-observation NRT remote sensing products. Here we present a global analysis of flood wave velocity (i.e. flow celerity) and travel time. We apply a simple kinematic wave model to a global hydrography dataset and calculate flow wave celerity and travel time during bankfull flow conditions. Bankfull flow corresponds to the condition of maximum celerity and thus we present the "worst-case scenario" minimum flow wave travel time. We conduct a similar analysis with respect to the time it takes flood waves to reach the next downstream city, as well as the next downstream reservoir. Finally, we conduct these same analyses, but with regards to the technical capabilities of the planned Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission, which is anticipated to provide waterbody elevation and extent measurements at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. We validate these results with discharge records from paired USGS gauge stations located along a diverse collection of river reaches. These results provide a scientific rationale for optimizing the utility of existing and future NRT river-observation products.

  8. Prepared to react? Assessing the functional capacity of the primary health care system in rural Orissa, India to respond to the devastating flood of September 2008.

    PubMed

    Phalkey, Revati; Dash, Shisir R; Mukhopadhyay, Alok; Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia; Marx, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Early detection of an impending flood and the availability of countermeasures to deal with it can significantly reduce its health impacts. In developing countries like India, public primary health care facilities are frontline organizations that deal with disasters particularly in rural settings. For developing robust counter reacting systems evaluating preparedness capacities within existing systems becomes necessary. The objective of the study is to assess the functional capacity of the primary health care system in Jagatsinghpur district of rural Orissa in India to respond to the devastating flood of September 2008. An onsite survey was conducted in all 29 primary and secondary facilities in five rural blocks (administrative units) of Jagatsinghpur district in Orissa state. A pre-tested structured questionnaire was administered face to face in the facilities. The data was entered, processed and analyzed using STATA(®) 10. Data from our primary survey clearly shows that the healthcare facilities are ill prepared to handle the flood despite being faced by them annually. Basic utilities like electricity backup and essential medical supplies are lacking during floods. Lack of human resources along with missing standard operating procedures; pre-identified communication and incident command systems; effective leadership; and weak financial structures are the main hindering factors in mounting an adequate response to the floods. The 2008 flood challenged the primary curative and preventive health care services in Jagatsinghpur. Simple steps like developing facility specific preparedness plans which detail out standard operating procedures during floods and identify clear lines of command will go a long way in strengthening the response to future floods. Performance critiques provided by the grass roots workers, like this one, should be used for institutional learning and effective preparedness planning. Additionally each facility should maintain contingency funds for emergency response along with local vendor agreements to ensure stock supplies during floods. The facilities should ensure that baseline public health standards for health care delivery identified by the Government are met in non-flood periods in order to improve the response during floods. Building strong public primary health care systems is a development challenge. The recovery phases of disasters should be seen as an opportunity to expand and improve services and facilities.

  9. Prepared to react? Assessing the functional capacity of the primary health care system in rural Orissa, India to respond to the devastating flood of September 2008

    PubMed Central

    Phalkey, Revati; Dash, Shisir R.; Mukhopadhyay, Alok; Runge-Ranzinger, Silvia; Marx, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Background Early detection of an impending flood and the availability of countermeasures to deal with it can significantly reduce its health impacts. In developing countries like India, public primary health care facilities are frontline organizations that deal with disasters particularly in rural settings. For developing robust counter reacting systems evaluating preparedness capacities within existing systems becomes necessary. Objective The objective of the study is to assess the functional capacity of the primary health care system in Jagatsinghpur district of rural Orissa in India to respond to the devastating flood of September 2008. Methods An onsite survey was conducted in all 29 primary and secondary facilities in five rural blocks (administrative units) of Jagatsinghpur district in Orissa state. A pre-tested structured questionnaire was administered face to face in the facilities. The data was entered, processed and analyzed using STATA® 10. Results Data from our primary survey clearly shows that the healthcare facilities are ill prepared to handle the flood despite being faced by them annually. Basic utilities like electricity backup and essential medical supplies are lacking during floods. Lack of human resources along with missing standard operating procedures; pre-identified communication and incident command systems; effective leadership; and weak financial structures are the main hindering factors in mounting an adequate response to the floods. Conclusion The 2008 flood challenged the primary curative and preventive health care services in Jagatsinghpur. Simple steps like developing facility specific preparedness plans which detail out standard operating procedures during floods and identify clear lines of command will go a long way in strengthening the response to future floods. Performance critiques provided by the grass roots workers, like this one, should be used for institutional learning and effective preparedness planning. Additionally each facility should maintain contingency funds for emergency response along with local vendor agreements to ensure stock supplies during floods. The facilities should ensure that baseline public health standards for health care delivery identified by the Government are met in non-flood periods in order to improve the response during floods. Building strong public primary health care systems is a development challenge. The recovery phases of disasters should be seen as an opportunity to expand and improve services and facilities. PMID:22435044

  10. The August 1975 Flood over Central China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Long; Smith, James; Liu, Maofeng; Baeck, MaryLynn

    2016-04-01

    The August 1975 flood in Central China was one of the most destructive floods in history, resulting in 26 000 fatalities, leaving about 10 million people with insufficient shelter, and producing long-lasting famine and disease. Extreme rainfall responsible for this flood event was associated with typhoon Nina during 5-7 August 1975. Despite the prominence of the August 1975 flood, analyses of the storms producing the flood and the resulting flood are sparse. Even fewer attempts were made from the perspective of numerical simulations. We examine details of extreme rainfall for the August 1975 flood based on downscaling simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by 20th Century Reanalysis fields. We further placed key hydrometeorological features for the flood event in a climatological context through the analyses of the 20th Century Reanalysis fields. Results indicate interrelated roles of multiple mesoscale ingredients for deep, moist convection in producing extreme rainfall for the August 1975 flood, superimposed over an anomalous synoptic environment. Attribution analyses on the source of water vapor for this flood event will be conducted based on a Lagrangian parcel tracking algorithm LAGRANTO. Analytical framework developed in this study aims to explore utilization of hydrometeorological approach in flood-control engineering designs by providing details on key elements of flood-producing storms.

  11. 44 CFR 60.22 - Planning considerations for flood-prone areas.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... land in relation to the hazards involved, and (iii) does not increase the danger to human life; (2) Prohibit nonessential or improper installation of public utilities and public facilities in flood-prone... public purposes consistent with a policy of minimization of future property losses; (4) Acquisition of...

  12. Assessment of the Effects of Various Precipitation Forcings on Flood Forecasting Potential Using WRF-Hydro Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, J.; Fang, N. Z.

    2017-12-01

    A potential flood forecast system is under development for the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) in North Central of Texas using the WRF-Hydro model. The Routing Application for the Parallel Computation of Discharge (RAPID) is utilized as channel routing module to simulate streamflow. Model performance analysis was conducted based on three quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE): the North Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) rainfall, the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) QPE and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) quality-controlled stage IV estimates. Prior to hydrologic simulation, QPE performance is assessed on two time scales (daily and hourly) using the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) and Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS) hourly products. The calibrated WRF-Hydro model was then evaluated by comparing the simulated against the USGS observed using various QPE products. The results imply that the NCEP stage IV estimates have the best accuracy among the three QPEs on both time scales, while the NLDAS rainfall performs poorly because of its coarse spatial resolution. Furthermore, precipitation bias demonstrates pronounced impact on flood forecasting skills, as the root mean squared errors are significantly reduced by replacing NLDAS rainfall with NCEP stage IV estimates. This study also demonstrates that accurate simulated results can be achieved when initial soil moisture values are well understood in the WRF-Hydro model. Future research effort will therefore be invested on incorporating data assimilation with focus on initial states of the soil properties for UTRB.

  13. Knowledge Discovery, Integration and Communication for Extreme Weather and Flood Resilience Using Artificial Intelligence: Flood AI Alpha

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demir, I.; Sermet, M. Y.

    2016-12-01

    Nobody is immune from extreme events or natural hazards that can lead to large-scale consequences for the nation and public. One of the solutions to reduce the impacts of extreme events is to invest in improving resilience with the ability to better prepare, plan, recover, and adapt to disasters. The National Research Council (NRC) report discusses the topic of how to increase resilience to extreme events through a vision of resilient nation in the year 2030. The report highlights the importance of data, information, gaps and knowledge challenges that needs to be addressed, and suggests every individual to access the risk and vulnerability information to make their communities more resilient. This abstracts presents our project on developing a resilience framework for flooding to improve societal preparedness with objectives; (a) develop a generalized ontology for extreme events with primary focus on flooding; (b) develop a knowledge engine with voice recognition, artificial intelligence, natural language processing, and inference engine. The knowledge engine will utilize the flood ontology and concepts to connect user input to relevant knowledge discovery outputs on flooding; (c) develop a data acquisition and processing framework from existing environmental observations, forecast models, and social networks. The system will utilize the framework, capabilities and user base of the Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) to populate and test the system; (d) develop a communication framework to support user interaction and delivery of information to users. The interaction and delivery channels will include voice and text input via web-based system (e.g. IFIS), agent-based bots (e.g. Microsoft Skype, Facebook Messenger), smartphone and augmented reality applications (e.g. smart assistant), and automated web workflows (e.g. IFTTT, CloudWork) to open the knowledge discovery for flooding to thousands of community extensible web workflows.

  14. Collaborative Initiative toward Developing River Forecasting in South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cabrera, R.

    2015-12-01

    In the United States, river floods have been discussed as early as 1884. Following a disastrous flooding in 1903, Congress passed legislation and river and flood services became a separate division within the U.S. Weather Bureau. The first River Forecast Center started in 1946 and today the whole country is served by thirteen River Forecast Centers. News from Latin American and Caribbean Countries often report of devastating flooding. However, river forecast services are not fully developed yet. This presentation suggests the utilization of a multinational collaborative approach toward the development of river forecasts in order to mitigate flooding in South America. The benefit of an international strategy resides in the strength created by a team of professionals with different capabilities and expertise.

  15. Developing a GIS based integrated approach to flood management in Trinidad, West Indies.

    PubMed

    Ramlal, Bheshem; Baban, Serwan M J

    2008-09-01

    Trinidad and Tobago is plagued with a perennial flooding problem. The higher levels of rainfall in the wet season often lead to extensive flooding in the low-lying areas of the country. This has lead to significant damage to livestock, agricultural produce, homes and businesses particularly in the Caparo River Basin. Clearly, there is a need for developing flood mitigation and management strategies to manage flooding in the areas most affected. This paper utilizes geographic information systems to map the extent of the flooding, estimate soil loss due to erosion and estimate sediment loading in the rivers in the Caparo River Basin. In addition, the project required the development of a watershed management plan and a flood control plan. The results indicate that flooding was caused by several factors including clear cutting of vegetative cover, especially in areas of steep slopes that lead to sediment filled rivers and narrow waterways. Other factors include poor agricultural practices, and uncontrolled development in floodplains. Recommendations to manage floods in the Caparo River Basin have been provided.

  16. Pluvial, urban flood mechanisms and characteristics - Assessment based on insurance claims

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sörensen, Johanna; Mobini, Shifteh

    2017-12-01

    Pluvial flooding is a problem in many cities and for city planning purpose the mechanisms behind pluvial flooding are of interest. Previous studies seldom use insurance claim data to analyse city scale characteristics that lead to flooding. In the present study, two long time series (∼20 years) of flood claims from property owners have been collected and analysed in detail to investigate the mechanisms and characteristics leading to urban flooding. The flood claim data come from the municipal water utility company and property owners with insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls and flooding from the drainage system. These data are used as a proxy for flood severity for several events in the Swedish city of Malmö. It is discussed which rainfall characteristics give most flooding and why some rainfall events do not lead to severe flooding, how city scale topography and sewerage system type influence spatial distribution of flood claims, and which impact high sea level has on flooding in Malmö. Three severe flood events are described in detail and compared with a number of smaller flood events. It was found that the main mechanisms and characteristics of flood extent and its spatial distribution in Malmö are intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall, distance to the main sewer system as well as overland flow paths, and type of drainage system, while high sea level has little impact on the flood extent. Finally, measures that could be taken to lower the flood risk in Malmö, and other cities with similar characteristics, are discussed.

  17. Modeling the hydrophysical soil properties as a part of self-regulated flood dams projection in gis-environment for sustainable urban development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikonorov, Aleksandr; Terleev, Vitaly; Badenko, Vladimir; Mirschel, Wilfried; Abakumov, Evgeny; Ginevsky, Roman; Lazarev, Viktor; Togo, Issa; Volkova, Yulia; Melnichuk, Aleksandr; Dunaieva, Ielizaveta; Akimov, Luka

    2017-10-01

    The problem of flood protection measures are considered in the paper. The regulation of river flow by the system of Self-Regulated Flood Dams (SRFD) is analyzed. The method of SRFD modeling in GIS environment is proposed. The question of the ecological aspect of the SRFD management is considered based on the hydrophysical properties of the soil. The improved Mualem-Van Genuchted method is proposed for the evaluation of the possible SRFD location influence on the soil of flooded territory - the temporary reservoirs. The importance and utility of the proposed complex method is stated.

  18. Potential Application of Airborne Passive Microwave Observations for Monitoring Inland Flooding Caused by Tropical Cyclones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hood, Robbie E.; Radley, C.D.; LaFontaine, F.J.

    2008-01-01

    Inland flooding from tropical cyclones can be a significant factor in storm-related deaths in the United States and other countries. Information collected during NASA tropical cyclone field studies suggest surface water and flooding induced by tropical cyclone precipitation can be detected and therefore monitored using passive microwave airborne radiometers. In particular, the 10.7 GHz frequency of the NASA Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) flown on the NASA ER-2 has demonstrated high resolution detection of anomalous surface water and flooding in numerous situations. This presentation will highlight the analysis of three cases utilizing primarily satellite and airborne radiometer data. Radiometer data from the 1998 Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3) are utilized to detect surface water during landfalling Hurricane Georges in both the Dominican Republic and Louisiana. A third case is landfalling Tropical Storm Gert in Eastern Mexico during the Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment in 2005. AMPR data are compared to topographic data and vegetation indices to evaluate the significance of the surface water signature visible in the 10.7 GHz information. The results of this study suggest the benefit of an aircraft 10 GHz radiometer to provide real-time observations of surface water conditions as part of a multi-sensor flood monitoring network.

  19. Potential flood hazard assessment by integration of ALOS PALSAR and ASTER GDEM: a case study for the Hoa Chau commune, Hoa Vang district, in central Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huong, Do Thi Viet; Nagasawa, Ryota

    2014-01-01

    The potential flood hazard was assessed for the Hoa Chau commune in central Vietnam in order to identify the high flood hazard zones for the decision makers who will execute future rural planning. A new approach for deriving the potential flood hazard based on integration of inundation and flow direction maps is described. Areas inundated in the historical flood event of 2007 were extracted from Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) phased array L-band synthetic aperture data radar (PALSAR) images, while flow direction characteristics were derived from the ASTER GDEM to extract the depressed surfaces. Past flood experience and the flow direction were then integrated to analyze and rank the potential flood hazard zones. The land use/cover map extracted from LANDSAT TM and flood depth point records from field surveys were utilized to check the possibility of susceptible inundated areas, extracting data from ALOS PALSAR and ranking the potential flood hazard. The estimation of potential flood hazard areas revealed that 17.43% and 17.36% of Hoa Chau had high and medium potential flood hazards, respectively. The flow direction and ALOS PALSAR data were effectively integrated for determining the potential flood hazard when hydrological and meteorological data were inadequate and remote sensing images taken during flood times were not available or were insufficient.

  20. Optical and Physical Methods for Mapping Flooding with Satellite Imagery

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fayne, Jessica Fayne; Bolten, John; Lakshmi, Venkat; Ahamed, Aakash

    2016-01-01

    Flood and surface water mapping is becoming increasingly necessary, as extreme flooding events worldwide can damage crop yields and contribute to billions of dollars economic damages as well as social effects including fatalities and destroyed communities (Xaio et al. 2004; Kwak et al. 2015; Mueller et al. 2016).Utilizing earth observing satellite data to map standing water from space is indispensable to flood mapping for disaster response, mitigation, prevention, and warning (McFeeters 1996; Brakenridge and Anderson 2006). Since the early 1970s(Landsat, USGS 2013), researchers have been able to remotely sense surface processes such as extreme flood events to help offset some of these problems. Researchers have demonstrated countless methods and modifications of those methods to help increase knowledge of areas at risk and areas that are flooded using remote sensing data from optical and radar systems, as well as free publically available and costly commercial datasets.

  1. Insurance against climate change and flood risk: Insurability and decision processes of insurers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Hung, Jia-Yi

    2016-04-01

    1. Background Major portions of the Asia-Pacific region is facing escalating exposure and vulnerability to climate change and flood-related extremes. This highlights an arduous challenge for public agencies to improve existing risk management strategies. Conventionally, governmental funding was majorly responsible and accountable for disaster loss compensation in the developing countries in Asia, such as Taiwan. This is often criticized as an ineffective and inefficient measure of dealing with flood risk. Flood insurance is one option within the toolkit of risk-sharing arrangement and adaptation strategy to flood risk. However, there are numerous potential barriers for insurance companies to cover flood damage, which would cause the flood risk is regarded as uninsurable. This study thus aims to examine attitudes within the insurers about the viability of flood insurance, the decision-making processes of pricing flood insurance and their determinants, as well as to examine potential solutions to encourage flood insurance. 2. Methods and data Using expected-utility theory, an insurance agent-based decision-making model was developed to examine the insurers' attitudes towards the insurability of flood risk, and to scrutinize the factors that influence their decisions on flood insurance premium-setting. This model particularly focuses on how insurers price insurance when they face either uncertainty or ambiguity about the probability and loss of a particular flood event occurring. This study considers the factors that are expected to affect insures' decisions on underwriting and pricing insurance are their risk perception, attitudes towards flood insurance, governmental measures (e.g., land-use planning, building codes, risk communication), expected probabilities and losses of devastating flooding events, as well as insurance companies' attributes. To elicit insurers' utilities about premium-setting for insurance coverage, the 'certainty equivalent,' 'probability equivalent,' and 'gamble tradeoff' methods were used. We then synthesized a Tobit and an OLS regression analysis to identify and examine the determinants of insurers' decisions on insurability and pricing for flood risk. Furthermore, the data were collected through a questionnaire survey, which was conducted with the assistance from the Non-life Underwriters Society, Taiwan and the Actuarial Institute, Taiwan. After pretesting, questionnaires were mailed to 410 randomly chosen commercial property-and-casualty insurance firms' actuaries and underwriters. The final sample consisted of 179 questionnaires for a 43.8% response rate. 3. Results Results of the questionnaire survey reveal that flood risk tends to be more uninsurable when there is ambiguity regarding the probability of a particular flood event loss. The presence of insurers' risk aversion appears to be robust. Insurers would charge a significantly higher price for a flood insurance policy than normal property insurance. The findings also show that the insurers who perceived higher levels of flood risk, or/and had a company with smaller size or higher financial leverage, would trigger a higher premium for flood insurance. Governmental risk management strategies, such as land-use planning, building codes, flood-hazard zone regulations, also played a prominent role in enhancing insurability and decreasing insurance premium. Therefore, appropriate incentives should be combined with better public risk communication and mitigation strategies to stimulate insurance coverage in reducing flood loss.

  2. Using decadal climate prediction to characterize and manage changing drought and flood risks in Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lazrus, H.; Done, J.; Morss, R. E.

    2017-12-01

    A new branch of climate science, known as decadal prediction, seeks to predict the time-varying trajectory of climate over the next 3-30 years and not just the longer-term trends. Decadal predictions bring climate information into the time horizon of decision makers, particularly those tasked with managing water resources and floods whose master planning is often on the timescale of decades. Information from decadal predictions may help alleviate some aspects of vulnerability by helping to inform decisions that reduce drought and flood exposure and increase adaptive capacities including preparedness, response, and recovery. This presentation will highlight an interdisciplinary project - involving atmospheric and social scientists - on the development of decadal climate information and its use in decision making. The presentation will explore the skill and utility of decadal drought and flood prediction along Colorado's Front Range, an area experiencing rapid population growth and uncertain climate variability and climate change impacts. Innovative statistical and dynamical atmospheric modeling techniques explore the extent to which Colorado precipitation can be predicted on decadal scales using remote Pacific Ocean surface temperature patterns. Concurrently, stakeholder interviews with flood managers in Colorado are being used to explore the potential utility of decadal climate information. Combining the modeling results with results from the stakeholder interviews shows that while there is still significant uncertainty surrounding precipitation on decadal time scales, relevant and well communicated decadal information has potential to be useful for drought and flood management.

  3. Variable parameter McCarthy-Muskingum routing method considering lateral flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yadav, Basant; Perumal, Muthiah; Bardossy, Andras

    2015-04-01

    The fully mass conservative variable parameter McCarthy-Muskingum (VPMM) method recently proposed by Perumal and Price (2013) for routing floods in channels and rivers without considering lateral flow is extended herein for accounting uniformly distributed lateral flow contribution along the reach. The proposed procedure is applied for studying flood wave movement in a 24.2 km river stretch between Rottweil and Oberndorf gauging stations of Neckar River in Germany wherein significant lateral flow contribution by intermediate catchment rainfall prevails during flood wave movement. The geometrical elements of the cross-sectional information of the considered routing river stretch without considering lateral flow are estimated using the Robust Parameter Estimation (ROPE) algorithm that allows for arriving at the best performing set of bed width and side slope of a trapezoidal section. The performance of the VPMM method is evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency criterion as the objective function to be maximized using the ROPE algorithm. The twenty-seven flood events in the calibration set are considered to identify the relationship between 'total rainfall' and 'total losses' as well as to optimize the geometric characteristics of the prismatic channel (width and slope of the trapezoidal section). Based on this analysis, a relationship between total rainfall and total loss of the intermediate catchment is obtained and then used to estimate the lateral flow in the reach. Assuming the lateral flow hydrograph is of the form of inflow hydrograph and using the total intervening catchment runoff estimated from the relationship, the uniformly distributed lateral flow rate qL at any instant of time is estimated for its use in the VPMM routing method. All the 27 flood events are simulated using this routing approach considering lateral flow along the reach. Many of these simulations are able to simulate the observed hydrographs very closely. The proposed approach of accounting lateral flow using the VPMM method is independently verified by routing flood hydrograph of 6 flood events which are not used in the total rainfall vs total loss relationship established for the intervening catchment of the studied river reach. Close reproduction of the outflow hydrographs of these independent events using the proposed VPMM method accounting for lateral flow demonstrate the practical utility of the method.

  4. Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

    2017-12-01

    Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

  5. A non-stationary cost-benefit analysis approach for extreme flood estimation to explore the nexus of 'Risk, Cost and Non-stationarity'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Wei

    2017-11-01

    Cost-benefit analysis is commonly used for engineering planning and design problems in practice. However, previous cost-benefit based design flood estimation is based on stationary assumption. This study develops a non-stationary cost-benefit based design flood estimation approach. This approach integrates a non-stationary probability distribution function into cost-benefit analysis, and influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost (including flood damage and construction costs) and design flood estimation can be quantified. To facilitate design flood selections, a 'Risk-Cost' analysis approach is developed, which reveals the nexus of extreme flood risk, expected total cost and design life periods. Two basins, with 54-year and 104-year flood data respectively, are utilized to illustrate the application. It is found that the developed approach can effectively reveal changes of expected total cost and extreme floods in different design life periods. In addition, trade-offs are found between extreme flood risk and expected total cost, which reflect increases in cost to mitigate risk. Comparing with stationary approaches which generate only one expected total cost curve and therefore only one design flood estimation, the proposed new approach generate design flood estimation intervals and the 'Risk-Cost' approach selects a design flood value from the intervals based on the trade-offs between extreme flood risk and expected total cost. This study provides a new approach towards a better understanding of the influence of non-stationarity on expected total cost and design floods, and could be beneficial to cost-benefit based non-stationary design flood estimation across the world.

  6. Study of flood defense structural measures priorities using Compromise Programming technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, D.; Jeong, S.

    2017-12-01

    Recent climate change of global warming has led to the frequent occurrence of heavy regional rainfalls. As such, inundation vulnerability increases in urban areas with high population density due to the low runoff carrying capacity. This study selects a sample area (Janghang-eup, the Republic of Korea), which is one of the most vulnerable areas to flooding, analyzing the urban flood runoff model (XP-SWMM) and using the MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) technique to establish flood protection structural measures. To this end, we compare the alternatives and choose the optimal flood defense measure: our model is utilized with three flood prevention structural measures; (i) drainage pipe construction; (ii) water detention; and (iii) flood pumping station. Dividing the target area into three small basins, we propose flood evaluations for an inundation decrease by studying the flooded area, the maximum inundation depth, the damaged residential area, and the construction cost. In addition, Compromise Programming determines the priority of the alternatives. As a consequent, this study suggests flood pumping station for Zone 1 and drainage pipe construction for Zone 2 and Zone 3, respectively, as the optimal flood defense alternative. Keywords : MCDM; Compromise Programming; Urban Flood Prevention; This research was supported by a grant [MPSS-DP-2013-62] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government.

  7. First evaluation of the utility of GPM precipitation in global flood monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, H.; Yan, Y.; Gao, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS) has been developed and used to provide real-time flood detection and streamflow estimates over the last few years with significant success shown by validation against global flood event data sets and observed streamflow variations (Wu et al., 2014). It has become a tool for various national and international organizations to appraise flood conditions in various areas, including where rainfall and hydrology information is limited. The GFMS has been using the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) as its main rainfall input. Now, with the advent of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission there is an opportunity to significantly improve global flood monitoring and forecasting. GPM's Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) multi-satellite product is designed to take advantage of various technical advances in the field and combine that with an efficient processing system producing "early" (4 hrs) and "late" (12 hrs) products for operational use. Specifically, this study is focused on (1) understanding the difference between the new IMERG products and other existing satellite precipitation products, e.g., TMPA, CMORPH, and ground observations; (2) addressing the challenge in the usage of the IMERG for flood monitoring through hydrologic models, given that only a short period of precipitation data record has been accumulated since the lunch of GPM in 2014; and (3) comparing the statistics of flood simulation based on the DRIVE model with IMERG, TMPA, CMORPH etc. as precipitation inputs respectively. Derivation of a global threshold map is a necessary step to define flood events out of modelling results, which requires a relatively longer historic information. A set of sensitivity tests are conducted by adjusting IMERG's light, moderate, heavy rain to existing precipitation products with long-term records separately, to optimize the strategy of PDF matching. Other aspects are also examined, including higher latitude events, where GPM precipitation algorithms should also provide improvements. This study provides a first evaluating the utility of the new IMERG products in flood monitoring through hydrologic modeling at a global scale.

  8. Linking Science of Flood Forecasts to Humanitarian Actions for Improved Preparedness and Effective Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uprety, M.; Dugar, S.; Gautam, D.; Kanel, D.; Kshetri, M.; Kharbuja, R. G.; Acharya, S. H.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in flood forecasting have provided opportunities for humanitarian responders to employ a range of preparedness activities at different forecast time horizons. Yet, the science of prediction is less understood and realized across the humanitarian landscape, and often preparedness plans are based upon average level of flood risk. Working under the remit of Forecast Based Financing (FbF), we present a pilot from Nepal on how available flood and weather forecast products are informing specific pre-emptive actions in the local preparedness and response plans, thereby supporting government stakeholders and humanitarian agencies to take early actions before an impending flood event. In Nepal, forecasting capabilities are limited but in a state of positive flux. Whilst local flood forecasts based upon rainfall-runoff models are yet to be operationalized, streamflow predictions from Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) can be utilized to plan and implement preparedness activities several days in advance. Likewise, 3-day rainfall forecasts from Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) can further inform specific set of early actions for potential flash floods due to heavy precipitation. Existing community based early warning systems in the major river basins of Nepal are utilizing real time monitoring of water levels and rainfall together with localised probabilistic flood forecasts which has increased warning lead time from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. Based on these available forecast products, thresholds and trigger levels have been determined for different flood scenarios. Matching these trigger levels and assigning responsibilities to relevant actors for early actions, a set of standard operating procedures (SOPs) are being developed, broadly covering general preparedness activities and science informed anticipatory actions for different forecast lead times followed by the immediate response activities. These SOPs are currently being rolled out and tested by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) through its district emergency operation centres in West Nepal. Potential scale up and successful implementation of this science based approach would be instrumental to take forward global commitments on disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and sustainable goals in Nepal.

  9. Climate Adaptation and Sea Level Rise

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA supports the development and maintenance of water utility infrastructure across the country. Included in this effort is helping the nation’s water utilities anticipate, plan for, and adapt to risks from flooding, sea level rise, and storm surge.

  10. Analysis of a Flooded Heat Exchanger

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fink, Aaron H.; Luyben, William L.

    2015-01-01

    Flooded heat exchangers are often used in industry to reduce the required heat-transfer area and the size of utility control valves. These units involve a condensing vapor on the hot side that accumulates as a liquid phase in the lower part of the vessel. The heat transfer occurs mostly in the vapor space, but the condensate becomes somewhat…

  11. Origin, enzymatic response and fate of dissolved organic matter during flood and non-flood conditions in a river-floodplain system of the Danube (Austria).

    PubMed

    Sieczko, Anna; Peduzzi, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Spectroscopic techniques and extracellular enzyme activity measurements were combined with assessments of bacterial secondary production (BSP) to elucidate flood-pulse-linked differences in carbon (C) sources and related microbial processes in a river-floodplain system near Vienna (Austria). Surface connection with the main channel significantly influenced the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in floodplain backwaters. The highest values of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chromophoric DOM (CDOM) were observed during the peak of the flood, when DOC increased from 1.36 to 4.37 mg l -1 and CDOM from 2.94 to 14.32 m -1 . The flood introduced DOC which consisted of more allochthonously-derived, aromatic compounds. Bacterial enzymatic activity, as a proxy to track the response to changes in DOM, indicated elevated utilization of imported allochthonous material. Based on the enzyme measurements, new parameters were calculated: metabolic effort and enzymatic indices (EEA 1 and EEA 2). During connection, bacterial glucosidase and protease activity were dominant, whereas during disconnected phases a switch to lignin degradation (phenol oxidase) occurred. The enzymatic activity analysis revealed that flooding mobilized reactive DOM, which then supported bacterial metabolism. No significant differences in overall BSP between the two phases were detected, indicating that heterogeneous sources of C sufficiently support BSP. The study demonstrates that floods are important for delivering DOM, which, despite its allochthonous origin, is reactive and can be effectively utilized by aquatic bacteria in this river-floodplain systems. The presence of active floodplains, characterized by hydrological connectivity with the main channel, creates the opportunity to process allochthonous DOC. This has potential consequences for carbon flux, enhancing C sequestration and mineralization processes in this river-floodplain system.

  12. Designing a Software for Flood Risk Assessment Based on Multi Criteria Desicion Analysis and Information Diffusion Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Musaoglu, N.; Saral, A.; Seker, D. Z.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding is one of the major natural disasters not only in Turkey but also in all over the world and it causes serious damage and harm. It is estimated that of the total economic loss caused by all kinds of disasters, 40% was due to floods. In July 1995, the Ayamama Creek in Istanbul was flooded, the insurance sector received around 1,200 claims notices during that period, insurance companies had to pay a total of $40 million for claims. In 2009, the same creek was flooded again and killed 31 people over two days and insurance firms paid for damages around cost €150 million for claims. To solve these kinds of problems modern tools such as GIS and Remote Sensing should be utilized. In this study, a software was designed for the flood risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Information Diffusion( InfoDif) methods.In the developed sofware, five evaluation criterias were taken into account, which were slope, aspect, elevation, geology and land use which were extracted from the satellite sensor data. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the Ayamama River Basin was acquired from the SPOT 5 satellite image with 2.5 meter spatial resolution. Slope and aspect values of the study basin were extracted from this DEM. The land use of the Ayamama Creek was obtained by performing object-oriented nearest neighbor classification method by image segmentation on SPOT 5 image dated 2010. All produced data were used as an input for the part of Multi Criteria Desicion Analysis (MCDA) method of this software. Criterias and their each sub criteras were weighted and flood vulnerability was determined with MCDA-AHP. Also, daily flood data was collected from Florya Meteorological Station, between 1975 to 2009 years and the daily flood peak discharge was calculated with the method of Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) and were used as an input in the software for the part of InfoDif.Obtained results were verified using ground truth data and it has been clearly seen that the developed (TRA) software which uses two different methods for flood risk analysis, can be more effective for achieving different decision problems, from conventional techniques and produce more reliable results in a short time.; Study Area

  13. Informing Mitigation of Disaster Loss through Social Media: Evidence from Thailand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allaire, M.

    2015-12-01

    This paper is the first to investigate the role of online information and social media in enabling households to reduce natural disaster losses. The historic 2011 Bangkok flood is utilized as a case study to assess how internet use allowed households to mitigate flood losses. This event was one of the first major disasters to affect an urban area with a substantial population connected to social media. The role of online information is investigated with a mixed methods approach, using both quantitative (propensity score matching and multivariate regression analysis) and qualitative (in-depth interviews) techniques. The study relies on two data sources - survey responses from 469 Bangkok households and in-depth interviews with internet users who are a subset of the survey participants. Propensity score matching indicates that social media use enabled households to reduce mean total losses by 37%, using a nearest neighbor estimator. Average loss reductions amounted to USD 3,708 to USD 4,886, depending on the matching estimator. In addition, regression analysis suggests that social media use is associated with lower flood losses (average reduction of USD 2,784). These reductions are notable when considering that total flood losses in 2011 averaged USD 4,903. Social media offered information that was not available from other sources, such as localized and nearly real-time updates of flood location and depth. With knowledge of current flood conditions, Bangkok households could move belongings to higher ground before floodwaters arrived. These findings suggest that utilizing social media users as sensors could better inform populations during natural disasters, particularly in locations that lack real-time, accurate flood monitoring networks. Therefore, expanded access to the internet and social could especially be useful in developing countries, ungagged basins, and highly complex urban environments. There is also an enormous opportunity for disseminating government disaster communication through social media. Overall, the study reveals that online information can enable effective disaster preparedness and reduce flood losses.

  14. Automated flood extent identification using WorldView imagery for the insurance industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geller, Christina

    2017-10-01

    Flooding is the most common and costly natural disaster around the world, causing the loss of human life and billions in economic and insured losses each year. In 2016, pluvial and fluvial floods caused an estimated 5.69 billion USD in losses worldwide with the most severe events occurring in Germany, France, China, and the United States. While catastrophe modeling has begun to help bridge the knowledge gap about the risk of fluvial flooding, understanding the extent of a flood - pluvial and fluvial - in near real-time allows insurance companies around the world to quantify the loss of property that their clients face during a flooding event and proactively respond. To develop this real-time, global analysis of flooded areas and the associated losses, a new methodology utilizing optical multi-spectral imagery from DigitalGlobe (DGI) WorldView satellite suite is proposed for the extraction of pluvial and fluvial flood extents. This methodology involves identifying flooded areas visible to the sensor, filling in the gaps left by the built environment (i.e. buildings, trees) with a nearest neighbor calculation, and comparing the footprint against an Industry Exposure Database (IE) to calculate a loss estimate. Full-automation of the methodology allows production of flood extents and associated losses anywhere around the world as required. The methodology has been tested and proven effective for the 2016 flood in Louisiana, USA.

  15. Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

  16. Designing Flood Management Systems for Joint Economic and Ecological Robustness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spence, C. M.; Grantham, T.; Brown, C. M.; Poff, N. L.

    2015-12-01

    Freshwater ecosystems across the United States are threatened by hydrologic change caused by water management operations and non-stationary climate trends. Nonstationary hydrology also threatens flood management systems' performance. Ecosystem managers and flood risk managers need tools to design systems that achieve flood risk reduction objectives while sustaining ecosystem functions and services in an uncertain hydrologic future. Robust optimization is used in water resources engineering to guide system design under climate change uncertainty. Using principles introduced by Eco-Engineering Decision Scaling (EEDS), we extend robust optimization techniques to design flood management systems that meet both economic and ecological goals simultaneously across a broad range of future climate conditions. We use three alternative robustness indices to identify flood risk management solutions that preserve critical ecosystem functions in a case study from the Iowa River, where recent severe flooding has tested the limits of the existing flood management system. We seek design modifications to the system that both reduce expected cost of flood damage while increasing ecologically beneficial inundation of riparian floodplains across a wide range of plausible climate futures. The first robustness index measures robustness as the fraction of potential climate scenarios in which both engineering and ecological performance goals are met, implicitly weighting each climate scenario equally. The second index builds on the first by using climate projections to weight each climate scenario, prioritizing acceptable performance in climate scenarios most consistent with climate projections. The last index measures robustness as mean performance across all climate scenarios, but penalizes scenarios with worse performance than average, rewarding consistency. Results stemming from alternate robustness indices reflect implicit assumptions about attitudes toward risk and reveal the tradeoffs between using structural and non-structural flood management strategies to ensure economic and ecological robustness.

  17. Regression Equations for Estimating Flood Flows at Selected Recurrence Intervals for Ungaged Streams in Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

    2008-01-01

    Regression equations were developed for estimating flood flows at selected recurrence intervals for ungaged streams in Pennsylvania with drainage areas less than 2,000 square miles. These equations were developed utilizing peak-flow data from 322 streamflow-gaging stations within Pennsylvania and surrounding states. All stations used in the development of the equations had 10 or more years of record and included active and discontinued continuous-record as well as crest-stage partial-record stations. The state was divided into four regions, and regional regression equations were developed to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year recurrence-interval flood flows. The equations were developed by means of a regression analysis that utilized basin characteristics and flow data associated with the stations. Significant explanatory variables at the 95-percent confidence level for one or more regression equations included the following basin characteristics: drainage area; mean basin elevation; and the percentages of carbonate bedrock, urban area, and storage within a basin. The regression equations can be used to predict the magnitude of flood flows for specified recurrence intervals for most streams in the state; however, they are not valid for streams with drainage areas generally greater than 2,000 square miles or with substantial regulation, diversion, or mining activity within the basin. Estimates of flood-flow magnitude and frequency for streamflow-gaging stations substantially affected by upstream regulation are also presented.

  18. Disaster loss and social media: Can online information increase flood resilience?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allaire, Maura C.

    2016-09-01

    When confronted with natural disasters, individuals around the world increasingly use online resources to become informed of forecasted conditions and advisable actions. This study tests the effectiveness of online information and social media in enabling households to reduce disaster losses. The 2011 Bangkok flood is utilized as a case study since it was one of the first major disasters to affect a substantial population connected to social media. The role of online information is investigated with a mixed methods approach. Both quantitative (propensity score matching) and qualitative (in-depth interviews) techniques are employed. The study relies on two data sources—survey responses from 469 Bangkok households and in-depth interviews with internet users who were a subset of the survey participants. Propensity score matching indicates that social media enabled households to reduce flood losses by an average of 37% (USD 3708 per household), using a nearest neighbor estimator. This reduction is substantial when considering that household flood losses for the matched sample averaged USD 8278. Social media offered information not available from other sources, such as localized and nearly real-time updates of flood location and depth. With this knowledge, households could move belongings to higher ground before floodwaters arrived. These findings suggest that utilizing social media users as sensors could better inform populations during disasters. Overall, the study reveals that online information can enable effective disaster preparedness and reduce losses.

  19. Disaster Loss and Social Media: Can Online Information Increase Flood Resilience?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allaire, M.

    2016-12-01

    When confronted with natural disasters, individuals around the world increasingly use online resources to become informed of forecasted conditions and advisable actions. This study tests the effectiveness of online information and social media in enabling households to reduce disaster losses. The 2011 Bangkok flood is utilized as a case study since it was one of the first major disasters to affect a substantial population connected to social media. The role of online information is investigated with a mixed methods approach. Both quantitative (propensity score matching) and qualitative (in-depth interviews) techniques are employed. The study relies on two data sources - survey responses from 469 Bangkok households and in-depth interviews with twenty-three internet users who are a subset of the survey participants. Propensity score matching indicates that social media enabled households to reduce flood losses by an average of 37% (USD 3,708), using a nearest neighbor estimator. This reduction is massive when considering that total flood losses for the full sample averaged USD 4,903. Social media offered information not available from other sources, such as localized and nearly real-time updates of flood location and depth. With this knowledge, households could move belongings to higher ground before floodwaters arrived. These findings suggest that utilizing social media users as sensors could better inform populations during disasters. Overall, the study reveals that online information can enable effective disaster preparedness and reduce losses.

  20. Social media as an information source for rapid flood inundation mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fohringer, J.; Dransch, D.; Kreibich, H.; Schröter, K.

    2015-12-01

    During and shortly after a disaster, data about the hazard and its consequences are scarce and not readily available. Information provided by eyewitnesses via social media is a valuable information source, which should be explored in a~more effective way. This research proposes a methodology that leverages social media content to support rapid inundation mapping, including inundation extent and water depth in the case of floods. The novelty of this approach is the utilization of quantitative data that are derived from photos from eyewitnesses extracted from social media posts and their integration with established data. Due to the rapid availability of these posts compared to traditional data sources such as remote sensing data, areas affected by a flood, for example, can be determined quickly. The challenge is to filter the large number of posts to a manageable amount of potentially useful inundation-related information, as well as to interpret and integrate the posts into mapping procedures in a timely manner. To support rapid inundation mapping we propose a methodology and develop "PostDistiller", a tool to filter geolocated posts from social media services which include links to photos. This spatial distributed contextualized in situ information is further explored manually. In an application case study during the June 2013 flood in central Europe we evaluate the utilization of this approach to infer spatial flood patterns and inundation depths in the city of Dresden.

  1. Social media as an information source for rapid flood inundation mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fohringer, J.; Dransch, D.; Kreibich, H.; Schröter, K.

    2015-07-01

    During and shortly after a disaster data about the hazard and its consequences are scarce and not readily available. Information provided by eye-witnesses via social media are a valuable information source, which should be explored in a more effective way. This research proposes a methodology that leverages social media content to support rapid inundation mapping, including inundation extent and water depth in case of floods. The novelty of this approach is the utilization of quantitative data that are derived from photos from eye-witnesses extracted from social media posts and its integration with established data. Due to the rapid availability of these posts compared to traditional data sources such as remote sensing data, for example areas affected by a flood can be determined quickly. The challenge is to filter the large number of posts to a manageable amount of potentially useful inundation-related information as well as their timely interpretation and integration in mapping procedures. To support rapid inundation mapping we propose a methodology and develop a tool to filter geo-located posts from social media services which include links to photos. This spatial distributed contextualized in-situ information is further explored manually. In an application case study during the June 2013 flood in central Europe we evaluate the utilization of this approach to infer spatial flood patterns and inundation depths in the city of Dresden.

  2. The model of flood control using servqual method and importance performance analysis in Surakarta City – Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Titi Purwantini, V.; Sutanto, Yusuf

    2018-05-01

    This research is to create a model of flood control in the city of Surakarta using Servqual method and Importance Performance Analysis. Service quality is generally defined as the overall assessment of a service by the customersor the extent to which a service meets customer’s needs or expectations. The purpose of this study is to find the first model of flood control that is appropriate to the condition of the community. Surakarta This means looking for a model that can provide satisfactory service for the people of Surakarta who are in the location of the flood. The second is to find the right model to improve service performance of Surakarta City Government in serving the people in flood location. The method used to determine the satisfaction of the public on the quality of service is to see the difference in the quality of service expected by the community with the reality. This method is Servqual Method While to assess the performance of city government officials is by comparing the actual performance with the quality of services provided, this method is This means looking for a model that can provide satisfactory service for the people of Surakarta who are in the location of the flood.The second is to find the right model to improve service performance of Surakarta City Government in serving the people in flood location. The method used to determine the satisfaction of the public on the quality of service is to see the difference in the quality of service expected by the community with the reality. This method is Servqual Method While to assess the performance of city government officials is by comparing the actual performance with the quality of services provided, this method is Importance Performance Analysis. Samples were people living in flooded areas in the city of Surakarta. Result this research is Satisfaction = Responsiveness+ Realibility + Assurance + Empathy+ Tangible (Servqual Model) and Importance Performance Analysis is From Cartesian diagram can be made Flood Control Formula as follow: Food Control = High performance

  3. Polarization Reversal Over Flooded Regions and Applications to Large-Scale Flood Mapping with Spaceborne Scatterometers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nghiem, Son V.; Liu, W. Timothy; Xie, Xiao-Su

    1999-01-01

    We present the polarization reversal in backscatter over flooded land regions, and demonstrate for the first time the utility of spaceborne Ku-band scatterometer for large-scale flood mapping. Scatterometer data were collected over the globe by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) operated at 14 GHz on the Japanese ADEOS spacecraft from September 1996 to June 1997. During this time span, several severe floods occurred. Over most land surface, vertical polarization backscatter (Sigma(sub upsilon(upsilon)) is larger than horizontal polarization backscatter (sigma(sub hh)). Such polarization characteristics is reversed and sigma(sub upsilon(upsilon)) is smaller than sigma(sub hh) over flooded regions, except under a dense forest canopy. The total backscatter from the flooded landscape consists of direct backscatter and boundary-interaction backscatter. The direct term is contributed by direct backscattering from objects protruding above the water surface, and by backscattering from waves on the water surface. The boundary-interaction term is contributed by the forward scattering from the protruding objects and then reflected from the water surface, and also by the forward scattering from these objects after the water-surface reflection. Over flooded regions, the boundary-interaction term is dominant at large incidence angles and the strong water-surface reflection is much larger for horizontal polarization than the vertical one due to the Brewster effect in transverse-magnetic waves. These scattering mechanisms cause the polarization reversal over flooded regions. An example obtained with the Analytic Wave Theory is used to illustrate the scattering mechanisms leading to the polarization reversal. We then demonstrate the utility of spaceborne Ku-band scatterometer for large-scale flood mapping. We process NSCAT data to obtain the polarization ratio sigma(sub hh)/sigma(sub upsilon(upsilon)) with colocated data at incidence angles larger than 40 deg. The results over Asian summer monsoon regions in September-October 1996 indicate flooded areas in many countries such as Bangladesh, India, Lao, Vietnam, Cambodia, and China. Reports documented by the United Nation Department of Humanitarian Affairs (now called UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) show loss of many lives and severe flood related damages which affected many million people in the corresponding flooded areas. We also map the NSCAT polarization ratio over the same regions in the "dry season" in January 1997 as a reference to confirm our results. Furthermore, we obtain concurrent ocean wind fields also derived from NSCAT data, and Asia topographic data (USGS GTOPO30) to investigate the flooded area. The results show that winds during summer monsoon season blowing inland, which perplex flood problems. Overlaying the topographic map over NSCAT results reveals an excellent correspondence between the confinement of flooded area within the relevant topographic features, which very well illustrates the value of topographic wetness index. Finally, we discuss the applications of future spaceborne scatterometers, including QuikSCAT and Seawinds, for flood mapping over the globe.

  4. Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.

    PubMed

    Dahl, Kristina A; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

    2017-01-01

    Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

  5. Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

    PubMed Central

    Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

    2017-01-01

    Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years. PMID:28158209

  6. Flood forecasting within urban drainage systems using NARX neural network.

    PubMed

    Abou Rjeily, Yves; Abbas, Oras; Sadek, Marwan; Shahrour, Isam; Hage Chehade, Fadi

    2017-11-01

    Urbanization activity and climate change increase the runoff volumes, and consequently the surcharge of the urban drainage systems (UDS). In addition, age and structural failures of these utilities limit their capacities, and thus generate hydraulic operation shortages, leading to flooding events. The large increase in floods within urban areas requires rapid actions from the UDS operators. The proactivity in taking the appropriate actions is a key element in applying efficient management and flood mitigation. Therefore, this work focuses on developing a flooding forecast system (FFS), able to alert in advance the UDS managers for possible flooding. For a forecasted storm event, a quick estimation of the water depth variation within critical manholes allows a reliable evaluation of the flood risk. The Nonlinear Auto Regressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX) neural network was chosen to develop the FFS as due to its calculation nature it is capable of relating water depth variation in manholes to rainfall intensities. The campus of the University of Lille is used as an experimental site to test and evaluate the FFS proposed in this paper.

  7. Conservation Reserve Program effects on floodplain land cover management.

    PubMed

    Jobe, Addison; Kalra, Ajay; Ibendahl, Elise

    2018-05-15

    Growing populations and industrialized agriculture practices have eradicated much of the United States wetlands along river floodplains. One program available for the restoration of floodplains is the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). The current research explores the effects CRP land change has on flooding zones, utilizing Flood Modeller and HEC-RAS. Flood Modeller is proven a viable tool for flood modeling within the United States when compared to HEC-RAS. Application of the software is used in the Nodaway River system located in the western halves of Iowa and Missouri to model effects of introducing new forest areas within the region. Flood stage during the conversion first decreases in the early years, before rising to produce greater heights. Flow velocities where CRP land is present are reduced for long-term scopes. Velocity reduction occurs as the Manning's roughness increases due to tree diameter and brush density. Flood zones become more widespread with the implementation of CRP. Future model implementations are recommended to witness the effects of smaller flood recurrence intervals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Impact of Flooding on Land Use/ Land Cover Transformation in Wular Lake and its Environs, Kashmir Valley, India Using Geoinformatics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmad, T.; Pandey, A. C.; Kumar, A.

    2017-11-01

    Wular lake, located at an elevation of 1520 m above sea level in Kashmir valley, India. In the present study, the immediate and long term impact of flood (2014) over the Wular lake environs was analyzed by using satellite images and employing supervised classification technique in GIS environment. The LULC classification was performed on the images of 25th August 2014 (pre flood) and 13th September 2015 (post flood) and was compared, which indicated marked decrease in terrestrial vegetation (23.7 %), agriculture (43.7 %) and water bodies (39.9 %). Overlaying analysis was performed with pre and post flood classified images with reference to the satellite image of 10th September 2014(during flood) which indicated total area inundated during flood was 88.77 km2. With the pre-flood situation, the aquatic vegetation of 34.06 km2, 13.89 km2 of agriculture land and terrestrial vegetation of 3.13 km2 was inundated. In the post flood situation, it was also came into focus that more than the half of the area under water bodies was converted into sand deposits (22.76 km2) due to anomalous increase in siltation. The overlay analysis on post flood classified image indicated that aquatic vegetation followed by agriculture and sand deposits lie within the flood inundated area. Further spatial analysis was performed within the flood inundated area (88.77 km2) with pre and post classified image to understand the situation before and after the flood and to calculate the changes. These land use-land cover transformations signifies the ill effect of flooding on the biodiversity of Wular Lake.

  9. Open Source Web-Based Solutions for Disseminating and Analyzing Flood Hazard Information at the Community Level

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santillan, M. M.-M.; Santillan, J. R.; Morales, E. M. O.

    2017-09-01

    We discuss in this paper the development, including the features and functionalities, of an open source web-based flood hazard information dissemination and analytical system called "Flood EViDEns". Flood EViDEns is short for "Flood Event Visualization and Damage Estimations", an application that was developed by the Caraga State University to address the needs of local disaster managers in the Caraga Region in Mindanao, Philippines in accessing timely and relevant flood hazard information before, during and after the occurrence of flood disasters at the community (i.e., barangay and household) level. The web application made use of various free/open source web mapping and visualization technologies (GeoServer, GeoDjango, OpenLayers, Bootstrap), various geospatial datasets including LiDAR-derived elevation and information products, hydro-meteorological data, and flood simulation models to visualize various scenarios of flooding and its associated damages to infrastructures. The Flood EViDEns application facilitates the release and utilization of this flood-related information through a user-friendly front end interface consisting of web map and tables. A public version of the application can be accessed at http://121.97.192.11:8082/. The application is currently expanded to cover additional sites in Mindanao, Philippines through the "Geo-informatics for the Systematic Assessment of Flood Effects and Risks for a Resilient Mindanao" or the "Geo-SAFER Mindanao" Program.

  10. Process-based selection of copula types for flood peak-volume relationships in Northwest Austria: a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohnová, Silvia; Gaál, Ladislav; Bacigál, Tomáš; Szolgay, Ján; Hlavčová, Kamila; Valent, Peter; Parajka, Juraj; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-12-01

    The case study aims at selecting optimal bivariate copula models of the relationships between flood peaks and flood volumes from a regional perspective with a particular focus on flood generation processes. Besides the traditional approach that deals with the annual maxima of flood events, the current analysis also includes all independent flood events. The target region is located in the northwest of Austria; it consists of 69 small and mid-sized catchments. On the basis of the hourly runoff data from the period 1976- 2007, independent flood events were identified and assigned to one of the following three types of flood categories: synoptic floods, flash floods and snowmelt floods. Flood events in the given catchment are considered independent when they originate from different synoptic situations. Nine commonly-used copula types were fitted to the flood peak - flood volume pairs at each site. In this step, two databases were used: i) a process-based selection of all the independent flood events (three data samples at each catchment) and ii) the annual maxima of the flood peaks and the respective flood volumes regardless of the flood processes (one data sample per catchment). The goodness-of-fit of the nine copula types was examined on a regional basis throughout all the catchments. It was concluded that (1) the copula models for the flood processes are discernible locally; (2) the Clayton copula provides an unacceptable performance for all three processes as well as in the case of the annual maxima; (3) the rejection of the other copula types depends on the flood type and the sample size; (4) there are differences in the copulas with the best fits: for synoptic and flash floods, the best performance is associated with the extreme value copulas; for snowmelt floods, the Frank copula fits the best; while in the case of the annual maxima, no firm conclusion could be made due to the number of copulas with similarly acceptable overall performances. The general conclusion from this case study is that treating flood processes separately is beneficial; however, the usually available sample size in such real life studies is not sufficient to give generally valid recommendations for engineering design tasks.

  11. Processing and utilization of LiDAR data as a support for a good management of DDBR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nichersu, I.; Grigoras, I.; Constantinescu, A.; Mierla, M.; Tifanov, C.

    2012-04-01

    Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve (DDBR) has 5,800 km2 as surface and it is situated in the South-East of Europe, in the East of Romania. The paper is taking into account the data related to the elevation surfaces of the DDBR (Digital Terrain Model DTM and Digital Surface Model DSM). To produce such kind of models of elevation for the entire area of DDBR it was used the most modern method that utilizes the Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR). The raw LiDAR data (x, y, z) for each point were transformed into grid formats for DTM and DSM. Based on these data multiple GIS analyses can be done for management purposes : hydraulic modeling 1D2D scenarios, flooding regime and protection, biomass volume estimation, GIS biodiversity processing. These analyses are very useful in the management planning process. The hydraulic modeling 1D2D scenarios are used by the administrative authority to predict the sense of the fluvial water flow and also to predict the places where the flooding could occur. Also it can be predicted the surface of the terrain that will be occupied by the water from floods. Flooding regime gives information about the frequency of the floods and also the intensity of these. In the same time it could be predicted the time of water remanence period. The protection face of the flooding regime is in direct relation with the socio-cultural communities and all their annexes those that are in risk of being flooded. This raises the problem of building dykes and other flooding protection systems. The biomass volume contains information derived from the LiDAR cloud points that describes only the vegetation. The volume of biomass is an important item in the management of a Biosphere Reserve. Also the LiDAR cloud points that refer to vegetation could help in identifying the groups of vegetal association. All these information corroborated with other information build good premises for a good management. Keywords: Danube Delta Biosphere Reserve, LiDAR data, DTM, DSM, flooding, management

  12. Metagenomic profiling of historic Colorado Front Range flood impact on distribution of riverine antibiotic resistance genes.

    PubMed

    Garner, Emily; Wallace, Joshua S; Argoty, Gustavo Arango; Wilkinson, Caitlin; Fahrenfeld, Nicole; Heath, Lenwood S; Zhang, Liqing; Arabi, Mazdak; Aga, Diana S; Pruden, Amy

    2016-12-05

    Record-breaking floods in September 2013 caused massive damage to homes and infrastructure across the Colorado Front Range and heavily impacted the Cache La Poudre River watershed. Given the unique nature of this watershed as a test-bed for tracking environmental pathways of antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) dissemination, we sought to determine the impact of extreme flooding on ARG reservoirs in river water and sediment. We utilized high-throughput DNA sequencing to obtain metagenomic profiles of ARGs before and after flooding, and investigated 23 antibiotics and 14 metals as putative selective agents during post-flood recovery. With 277 ARG subtypes identified across samples, total bulk water ARGs decreased following the flood but recovered to near pre-flood abundances by ten months post-flood at both a pristine site and at a site historically heavily influenced by wastewater treatment plants and animal feeding operations. Network analysis of de novo assembled sequencing reads into 52,556 scaffolds identified ARGs likely located on mobile genetic elements, with up to 11 ARGs per plasmid-associated scaffold. Bulk water bacterial phylogeny correlated with ARG profiles while sediment phylogeny varied along the river's anthropogenic gradient. This rare flood afforded the opportunity to gain deeper insight into factors influencing the spread of ARGs in watersheds.

  13. Metagenomic profiling of historic Colorado Front Range flood impact on distribution of riverine antibiotic resistance genes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garner, Emily; Wallace, Joshua S.; Argoty, Gustavo Arango; Wilkinson, Caitlin; Fahrenfeld, Nicole; Heath, Lenwood S.; Zhang, Liqing; Arabi, Mazdak; Aga, Diana S.; Pruden, Amy

    2016-12-01

    Record-breaking floods in September 2013 caused massive damage to homes and infrastructure across the Colorado Front Range and heavily impacted the Cache La Poudre River watershed. Given the unique nature of this watershed as a test-bed for tracking environmental pathways of antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) dissemination, we sought to determine the impact of extreme flooding on ARG reservoirs in river water and sediment. We utilized high-throughput DNA sequencing to obtain metagenomic profiles of ARGs before and after flooding, and investigated 23 antibiotics and 14 metals as putative selective agents during post-flood recovery. With 277 ARG subtypes identified across samples, total bulk water ARGs decreased following the flood but recovered to near pre-flood abundances by ten months post-flood at both a pristine site and at a site historically heavily influenced by wastewater treatment plants and animal feeding operations. Network analysis of de novo assembled sequencing reads into 52,556 scaffolds identified ARGs likely located on mobile genetic elements, with up to 11 ARGs per plasmid-associated scaffold. Bulk water bacterial phylogeny correlated with ARG profiles while sediment phylogeny varied along the river’s anthropogenic gradient. This rare flood afforded the opportunity to gain deeper insight into factors influencing the spread of ARGs in watersheds.

  14. The Effects of Floods on the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Baise (Guangxi Province, China) from 2004 to 2012.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xuena; Liu, Zhidong; Zhang, Ying; Jiang, Baofa

    2017-02-12

    Research shows potential effects of floods on intestinal infections. Baise, a city in Guangxi Province (China) had experienced several floods between 2004 and 2012 due to heavy and constant precipitation. This study aimed to examine the relationship between floods and the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Baise. A mixed generalized additive model and Spearman correlation were applied to analyze the relationship between monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery and 14 flood events with two severity levels. Data collected from 2004 to 2010 were utilized to estimate the parameters, whereas data from 2011 to 2012 were used to validate the model. There were in total 9255 cases of bacillary dysentery included in our analyses. According to the mixed generalized additive model, the relative risks (RR) of moderate and severe floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery were 1.40 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-1.69) and 1.78 (95% CI: 1.61-1.97), respectively. The regression analysis also indicated that the flood duration was negatively associated with the incidence of bacillary dysentery (with RR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.40-0.86). Therfore, this research suggests that floods exert a significant part in enhancing the risk of bacillary dysentery in Baise. Moreover, severe floods have a higher proportional contribution to the incidence of bacillary dysentery than moderate floods. In addition, short-term floods may contribute more to the incidence of bacillary dysentery than a long-term flood. The findings from this research will provide more evidence to reduce health risks related to floods.

  15. The Effects of Floods on the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Baise (Guangxi Province, China) from 2004 to 2012

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xuena; Liu, Zhidong; Zhang, Ying; Jiang, Baofa

    2017-01-01

    Research shows potential effects of floods on intestinal infections. Baise, a city in Guangxi Province (China) had experienced several floods between 2004 and 2012 due to heavy and constant precipitation. This study aimed to examine the relationship between floods and the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Baise. A mixed generalized additive model and Spearman correlation were applied to analyze the relationship between monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery and 14 flood events with two severity levels. Data collected from 2004 to 2010 were utilized to estimate the parameters, whereas data from 2011 to 2012 were used to validate the model. There were in total 9255 cases of bacillary dysentery included in our analyses. According to the mixed generalized additive model, the relative risks (RR) of moderate and severe floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery were 1.40 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16–1.69) and 1.78 (95% CI: 1.61–1.97), respectively. The regression analysis also indicated that the flood duration was negatively associated with the incidence of bacillary dysentery (with RR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.40–0.86). Therfore, this research suggests that floods exert a significant part in enhancing the risk of bacillary dysentery in Baise. Moreover, severe floods have a higher proportional contribution to the incidence of bacillary dysentery than moderate floods. In addition, short-term floods may contribute more to the incidence of bacillary dysentery than a long-term flood. The findings from this research will provide more evidence to reduce health risks related to floods. PMID:28208681

  16. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Enhance Flood Impact Products and Mitigation in the Lower Mekong Water Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doyle, C.; Gao, M.; Spruce, J.; Bolten, J. D.; Weber, S.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation discusses results of a project to develop a near real time flood monitoring capability for the Lower Mekong Water Basin (LMB), the largest river basin in Southeast Asia and home to more than sixty million people. The region has seen rapid population growth and socio-economic development, fueling unsustainable deforestation, agricultural expansion, and stream-flow regulation. The basin supports substantial rice farming and other agrarian activities, which heavily depend upon seasonal flooding. But, floods due to typhoons and other severe weather events can result in disasters that cost millions of dollars and cause hardships to millions of people. This study uses near real time and historical Aqua and Terra MODIS 250-m resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products to map flood and drought impact within the LMB. In doing so, NDVI change products are derived by comparing from NDVI during the wet season to a baseline NDVI from the dry season. The method records flood events, which cause drastic decreases in NDVI compared to non-flooded conditions. NDVI change product computation was automated for updating a near real-time system, as part of the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites Disaster Risk Management Observation Strategy. The system is a web-based 'Flood Dashboard that will showcase MODIS flood monitoring products, along with other flood mapping and weather data products. This flood dashboard enables end-users to view and assess a variety of geospatial data to monitor floods and flood impacts in near real-time, as well provides a platform for further data aggregation for flood prediction modeling and post-event assessment.

  17. Flood Control, Mississippi River, La Crosse, Wisconsin.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-10-01

    end SuP.,tifle) S TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVEkr FINAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT FLOOD CONTROL MISSISSIPPI RIVER LA CROSSE, WISCONSIN Pinal FIq 6...PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTHOR(e) 0 CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER( s ) 9 PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADrRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT, T...rev s eflA ff r,,.e.. ind IdeInify by block rnmber) "-The proposed action is a flood control project consisting of levees, road raises, flood wall

  18. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yan, Eugene; Pierce, Julia; Mahat, Vinod

    This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with amore » heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.« less

  19. Bridging the Gap between Chemical Flooding and Independent Oil Producers

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Stan McCool; Tony Walton; Paul Whillhite

    2012-03-31

    Ten Kanas oil reservoirs/leases were studied through geological and engineering analysis to assess the potential performance of chemical flooding to recover oil. Reservoirs/leases that have been efficiently waterflooded have the highest performance potential for chemical flooding. Laboratory work to identify efficient chemical systems and to test the oil recovery performance of the systems was the major effort of the project. Efficient chemical systems were identified for crude oils from nine of the reservoirs/leases. Oil recovery performance of the identified chemical systems in Berea sandstone rocks showed 90+ % recoveries of waterflood residual oil for seven crude oils. Oil recoveries increasedmore » with the amount of chemical injected. Recoveries were less in Indiana limestone cores. One formulation recovered 80% of the tertiary oil in the limestone rock. Geological studies for nine of the oil reservoirs are presented. Pleasant Prairie, Trembley, Vinland and Stewart Oilfields in Kansas were the most favorable of the studied reservoirs for a pilot chemical flood from geological considerations. Computer simulations of the performance of a laboratory coreflood were used to predict a field application of chemical flooding for the Trembley Oilfield. Estimates of field applications indicated chemical flooding is an economically viable technology for oil recovery.« less

  20. RF-CLASS: A Remote-sensing-based Interoperable Web service system for Flood Crop Loss Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di, L.; Yu, G.; Kang, L.

    2014-12-01

    Flood is one of the worst natural disasters in the world. Flooding often causes significant crop loss over large agricultural areas in the United States. Two USDA agencies, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and Risk Management Agency (RMA), make decisions on flood statistics, crop insurance policy, and recovery management by collecting, analyzing, reporting, and utilizing flooded crop acreage and crop loss information. NASS has the mandate to report crop loss after all flood events. RMA manages crop insurance policy and uses crop loss information to guide the creation of the crop insurance policy and the aftermath compensation. Many studies have been conducted in the recent years on monitoring floods and assessing the crop loss due to floods with remote sensing and geographic information technologies. The Remote-sensing-based Flood Crop Loss Assessment Service System (RF-CLASS), being developed with NASA and USDA support, aims to significantly improve the post-flood agricultural decision-making supports in USDA by integrating and advancing the recently developed technologies. RF-CLASS will operationally provide information to support USDA decision making activities on collecting and archiving flood acreage and duration, recording annual crop loss due to flood, assessing the crop insurance rating areas, investigating crop policy compliance, and spot checking of crop loss claims. This presentation will discuss the remote sensing and GIS based methods for deriving the needed information to support the decision making, the RF-CLASS cybersystem architecture, the standards and interoperability arrangements in the system, and the current and planned capabilities of the system.

  1. Utilization of Geospatial Techniques for Extraction of Suitable River Islands for Construction of Eco-Friendly Tourism Places

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuldeep, K.

    2016-02-01

    In India, most of the rivers form big size natural islands due to change in its course. However, identification of suitable river island for construction of Eco-friendly parks/tourist destination is a very challenging task since these are exposed to river flooding. River islands which are least vulnerable to the impact of severe flooding can be a suitable place for construction of tourism destination such as eco-friendly Parks, Hotels etc. The study involves a two step approach viz. automatic extraction of river islands and model development for flood inundation mapping for extraction of eco-friendly tourism destinations. In this study, automatic extraction of the river islands has been carried out using knowledge based classification approach. The satellite data acquired by the Indian Remote Sensing Satellites sensors such as LISS-III and Cartosat-1 DEM have been used for analyses. In the first step, satellite imagery has been broadly categorized into 5 landuse/cover classes viz. Water, Sand, Islands, Settlements and Cropland. Extraction of such islands which remain unaffected during severe flooding has been accomplished with the flood inundation mapping which has been carried out in HEC-GeoRas with in GIS environment. The model utilizes the primary 4 inputs viz. geometry of the river (DEM, slope), time series data of water surface elevation, landuse/cover, and location of rain gauge station for flood inundation mapping. This paper also investigates the applicability of the eco-island concept to include protection of wetland, management of land-resources, sustainable use of natural resources and construction of ecological park/hotels. The output of the study will be very useful for Government authorities in stabilizing economy, and enhancing the tourism infrastructure in a better way.

  2. Utilization of Geospatial Techniques for Extraction of Suitable River Islands for Construction of Eco-Friendly Tourism Places

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuldeep, K.

    2015-12-01

    In India, most of the rivers form big size natural islands due to change in its course. However, identification of suitable river island is a very challenging task since these are exposed to river flooding. River islands with least vulnerability to the impacts of severe flooding can be a suitable place for construction of tourism destination such as eco-friendly Parks, Hotels etc. The study involves a two step approach viz. automatic extraction of river islands and model development for flood inundation mapping for extraction of eco-friendly tourism destinations. In this study, automatic extraction of the river islands has been carried out using knowledge based classification approach. The satellite data acquired by the Indian Remote Sensing Satellites sensors such as LISS-III and Cartosat-1 DEM have been used for analyses. In the first step, satellite imagery has been broadly categorized into 5 landuse/cover classes viz. Water, Sand, Islands, Settlements and Cropland. Extraction of such islands which remain unaffected during severe flooding has been accomplished with the flood inundation mapping which has been carried out in HEC-GeoRas with in GIS environment. The model utilizes the primary 4 inputs viz. geometry of the river (DEM, slope), time series data of water surface elevation, landuse/cover, and location of rain gauge station for flood inundation mapping. This paper also investigates the applicability of the eco-island concept to include protection of wetland, management of land-resources, sustainable use of natural resources and construction of ecological park/hotels. The output of the study will be very helpful for Government authorities in stabilizing economy, and enhancing the tourism infrastructure in a better way.

  3. Analysis of flood inundation in ungauged basins based on multi-source remote sensing data.

    PubMed

    Gao, Wei; Shen, Qiu; Zhou, Yuehua; Li, Xin

    2018-02-09

    Floods are among the most expensive natural hazards experienced in many places of the world and can result in heavy losses of life and economic damages. The objective of this study is to analyze flood inundation in ungauged basins by performing near-real-time detection with flood extent and depth based on multi-source remote sensing data. Via spatial distribution analysis of flood extent and depth in a time series, the inundation condition and the characteristics of flood disaster can be reflected. The results show that the multi-source remote sensing data can make up the lack of hydrological data in ungauged basins, which is helpful to reconstruct hydrological sequence; the combination of MODIS (moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer) surface reflectance productions and the DFO (Dartmouth Flood Observatory) flood database can achieve the macro-dynamic monitoring of the flood inundation in ungauged basins, and then the differential technique of high-resolution optical and microwave images before and after floods can be used to calculate flood extent to reflect spatial changes of inundation; the monitoring algorithm for the flood depth combining RS and GIS is simple and easy and can quickly calculate the depth with a known flood extent that is obtained from remote sensing images in ungauged basins. Relevant results can provide effective help for the disaster relief work performed by government departments.

  4. Estimated post-flood effects through Sentinel and Landsat data to support civil protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cicala, Luca; Angelino, Cesario Vincenzo; Fiscante, Nicomino; Focareta, Mariano

    2016-10-01

    On October 15, 2015, a severe and devastating flood hit the region of Sannio, Southern Italy, and the city of Benevento. Benevento and the hilly area of Sannio, have already experienced similar disasters, but the natural disasters occurred in the past did not help to better cope with current ones. The flood in this almost unknown area of Campania reached its climax with the flooding of the Tammaro and Calore rivers. The extent of the damage to the region, businesses and people was very heavy. Benevento is the most affected area. Utilizing a combination of remote-sensing techniques, Geographic Information System (GIS) data, this project employed Sentinel-1/2 and Landsat 8 imagery taken before and during the floods to calculate total inundated area and delineate flood extent. This data was then used to assess pre-existing flood hazard maps of the area. The resulting maps and methodologies from this project were delivered to the local governments and organizations as they work to better understand this historic event and plan for recovery throughout the region. The main goal of this study is to map flood inundation using principally open, free and full data acquired by Sentinel and Landsat satellite platforms operated by European Space Agency (ESA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) respectively.

  5. Flood of April 1975 at Lansing, Michigan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, John B.; Swallow, L.A.

    1975-01-01

    On April 18 between 5 p.m. and 12 p.m. an intense rainstorm fell in the Lansing area resulting in extensive flooding.  The Federal Disaster Assistance Administration estimated that 175 homes were damaged to at least half their value, 4,500 received some damage, with additional losses to schools, utilities, hospitals, and transportation systems.  Early estimates indicated that damages may be as high as $20 million.During the time of flooding the U.S. Geological Survey obtained aerial photography and streamflow data to document the disaster.  This report shows on photomosaic base maps the extent of flooding in the Lansing area.  Areas included are the lower reaches of the Red Cedar River and Sycamore Creek and the Grand River downstream from the confluence of the Red Cedar River.  Little flooding occurred on the Grand River upstream from the Red Cedar so, although aerial photography was obtained for that reach, photomosaics were not prepared.  Streamflow data collected at five gaging stations near Lansing are given.  Information on the magnitude of the flood should be useful in making decisions regarding use of flood plains in the area.  It is one of a series of reports on the April 1975 flood in the Lansing metropolitan area.

  6. Emplacement of the youngest flood lava on Mars: A short, turbulent story

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaeger, W.L.; Keszthelyi, L.P.; Skinner, J.A.; Milazzo, M.P.; McEwen, A.S.; Titus, T.N.; Rosiek, M.R.; Galuszka, D.M.; Howington-Kraus, E.; Kirk, R.L.

    2010-01-01

    Recently acquired data from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE), Context (CTX) imager, and Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft were used to investigate the emplacement of the youngest flood-lava flow on Mars. Careful mapping finds that the Athabasca Valles flood lava is the product of a single eruption, and it covers 250,000 km2 of western Elysium Planitia with an estimated 5000-7500 km3 of mafic or ultramafic lava. Calculations utilizing topographic data enhanced with MRO observations to refine the dimensions of the channel system show that this flood lava was emplaced turbulently over a period of only a few to several weeks. This is the first well-documented example of a turbulently emplaced flood lava anywhere in the Solar System. However, MRO data suggest that this same process may have operated in a number of martian channel systems. The magnitude and dynamics of these lava floods are similar to the aqueous floods that are generally believed to have eroded the channels, raising the intriguing possibility that mechanical erosion by lava could have played a role in their incision. ?? 2009.

  7. Emplacement of the youngest flood lava on Mars: A short, turbulent story

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaeger, W.L.; Keszthelyi, L.P.; Skinner, J.A.; Milazzo, M.P.; McEwen, A.S.; Titus, T.N.; Rosiek, M.R.; Galuszka, D.M.; Howington-Kraus, E.; Kirk, R.L.

    2009-01-01

    Recently acquired data from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE), Context (CTX) imager, and Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) onboard the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft were used to investigate the emplacement of the youngest flood-lava flow on Mars. Careful mapping finds that the Athabasca Valles flood lava is the product of a single eruption, and it covers 250,000 km2 of western Elysium Planitia with an estimated 5000-7500 km3 of mafic or ultramafic lava. Calculations utilizing topographic data enhanced with MRO observations to refine the dimensions of the channel system show that this flood lava was emplaced turbulently over a period of only a few to several weeks. This is the first well-documented example of a turbulently emplaced flood lava anywhere in the Solar System. However, MRO data suggest that this same process may have operated in a number of martian channel systems. The magnitude and dynamics of these lava floods are similar to the aqueous floods that are generally believed to have eroded the channels, raising the intriguing possibility that mechanical erosion by lava could have played a role in their incision.

  8. Urban construction and safety project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hogarth, P. T.

    1976-01-01

    Technology utilization projects in the area of urban construction and safety included the following: development of undercarpet and baseboard flat conductor cables, flood insurance studies, tornado safety engineering, the Project TECH house at the Langley Research Center, assistance to the City of Atlanta in their environmental habitability and resource allocation program, and market assessment of a solid state diesel engine controller. The flat conductor cable and the flood insurance studies are given particular attention.

  9. Wetlands Research Program. A Concept and Procedure for Developing and Utilizing Vegetation Flood Tolerance Indices in Wetlands Delineation.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-02-01

    reverse side If necessary md identify by block number) Adaptive mechanisms Evapotranspiration Saturation Comunity FTI numbers Soil permeability Delineation...distribution and the fre- quency and duration of inundation/ soil saturation. The numerical expression (Flood Tolerance Index (FTI) number) of this...inundation, a strong correlation may exist between the distribution of a species and its associated hydrologic and soil -moisture conditions (Bedinger

  10. Precision Monitoring of Water Level in a Salt Marsh with Low Cost Tilt Loggers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheremet, Vitalii A.; Mora, Jordan W.

    2016-04-01

    Several salt pannes and pools in the Sage Lot tidal marsh of Waquoit Bay system, MA were instrumented with newly developed Arm-and-Float water level gauges (utilizing accelerometer tilt logger) permitting to record water level fluctuations with accuracy of 1 mm and submillimeter resolution. The methodology of the instrument calibration, deployment, and elevation control are described. The instrument performance was evaluated. Several month long deployments allowed us to analyze the marsh flooding and draining processes, study differences among the salt pannes. The open channel flow flooding-draining mechanism and slower seepage were distinguished. From the drain curve the seepage rate can be quantified. The seepage rate remains approximately constant for all flooding draining episodes, but varies from panne to panne depending on bottom type and location. Seasonal differences due to the growth of vegetation are also recorded. The analysis of rain events allows us to estimate the catch area of subbasins in the marsh. The implication for marsh ecology and marsh accretion are discussed. The gradual sea level rise coupled with monthly tidal datum variability and storm surges result in migration and development of a salt marsh. The newly developed low cost instrumentation allows us to record and analyze these changes and may provide guidance for the ecological management.

  11. Probabilistic mapping of urban flood risk: Application to extreme events in Surat, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez, Jorge; Rajasekar, Umamaheshwaran; Coulthard, Tom; Keiler, Margreth

    2016-04-01

    Surat, India is a coastal city that lies on the banks of the river Tapti and is located downstream from the Ukai dam. Given Surat's geographic location, the population of five million people are repeatedly exposed to flooding caused by high tide combined with large emergency dam releases into the Tapti river. In 2006 such a flood event occurred when intense rainfall in the Tapti catchment caused a dam release near 25,000 m3 s-1 and flooded 90% of the city. A first step towards strengthening resilience in Surat requires a robust method for mapping potential flood risk that considers the uncertainty in future dam releases. Here, in this study we develop many combinations of dam release magnitude and duration for the Ukai dam. Afterwards we use these dam releases to drive a two dimensional flood model (CAESAR-Lisflood) of Surat that also considers tidal effects. Our flood model of Surat utilizes fine spatial resolution (30m) topography produced from an extensive differential global positioning system survey and measurements of river cross-sections. Within the city we have modelled scenarios that include extreme conditions with near maximum dam release levels (e.g. 1:250 year flood) and high tides. Results from all scenarios have been summarized into probabilistic flood risk maps for Surat. These maps are currently being integrated within the city disaster management plan for taking both mitigation and adaptation measures for different scenarios of flooding.

  12. Disaster averted: Community resilience in the face of a catastrophic flood.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, H Katherine; McLean, Andrew J; Kalis, Renetta; Shultz, James M

    2016-01-01

    In the spring of 2009, the Fargo, North Dakota, metropolitan area had 5 days to lay millions of sandbags to avoid devastation from record flooding of the Red River of the North. The community was able to successfully mitigate the flooding and escape potentially catastrophic economic, physical, and mental health consequences. We hypothesized that Fargo flood protection efforts reflected the community resilience factors proposed by Norris, Stevens, Pfefferbaum, et al. (2008): citizen involvement in mitigation efforts, effective organizational linkages, ongoing psychosocial support, and strong civic leadership in the face of rapidly changing circumstances. This community case report utilizes an extensive review of available sources, including news reports, government documents, research articles, and personal communication. Results demonstrate that Fargo's response to the threat of catastrophic flooding was consistent with Norris et al.'s (2008) factors of community resilience. Furthermore, success in 2009 carried over into future flood prevention and response efforts, as well as a structured approach to building psychological resilience. This case study contributes to the literature on community resilience by describing a community's successful efforts to avert a potentially catastrophic disaster.

  13. Disaster averted: Community resilience in the face of a catastrophic flood

    PubMed Central

    O'Neill, H. Katherine; McLean, Andrew J.; Kalis, Renetta; Shultz, James M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT In the spring of 2009, the Fargo, North Dakota, metropolitan area had 5 days to lay millions of sandbags to avoid devastation from record flooding of the Red River of the North. The community was able to successfully mitigate the flooding and escape potentially catastrophic economic, physical, and mental health consequences. We hypothesized that Fargo flood protection efforts reflected the community resilience factors proposed by Norris, Stevens, Pfefferbaum, et al. (2008): citizen involvement in mitigation efforts, effective organizational linkages, ongoing psychosocial support, and strong civic leadership in the face of rapidly changing circumstances. This community case report utilizes an extensive review of available sources, including news reports, government documents, research articles, and personal communication. Results demonstrate that Fargo's response to the threat of catastrophic flooding was consistent with Norris et al.'s (2008) factors of community resilience. Furthermore, success in 2009 carried over into future flood prevention and response efforts, as well as a structured approach to building psychological resilience. This case study contributes to the literature on community resilience by describing a community's successful efforts to avert a potentially catastrophic disaster. PMID:28229016

  14. Impact of Prairie Cover on Hydraulic Conductivity and Storm Water Runoff

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herkes, D. M. G.; Gori, A.; Juan, A.

    2017-12-01

    Houston has long struggled to find effective solutions to its historic flooding problems. Conventional strategies have revolved around constructing hard infrastructure such as levees or regional detention ponds to reduce flood impacts. However, there has been a recent shift to explore the implementation of nature-based solutions in reducing flood impacts. This is due to the price of structural mechanisms, as well as their failure to adequately protect areas from flooding during the latest flood events. One alternative could be utilizing the natural water retention abilities of native Texas prairies. This study examines the effect of Texas prairie areas in increasing soil infiltration capacities, thereby increasing floodwater storage and reducing surface runoff. For this purpose, an infiltration study of 15 sites was conducted on lands owned by the Katy Prairie Conservancy within Cypress Creek watershed. Located in Northwest Houston, it is an area which had been heavily impacted by recent flood events. Each sampling site was selected to represent a particular land cover or vegetation type, ranging from developed open space to native prairies. Field test results are then compared to literature values of soil infiltration capacity in order to determine the infiltration benefit of each vegetation type. Test results show that certain vegetation, especially prairies, significantly increase the infiltration capacity of the underlying soil. For example, the hydraulic conductivity of prairie on sandy loam soil is approximately an order of magnitude higher than that of the soil itself. Finally, a physics-based hydrologic model is utilized to evaluate the flood reduction potential of native Texas prairie. This model represents Cypress Creek watershed in gridded cell format, and allows varying hydraulic and infiltration parameters at each cell. Design storms are run to obtain flow hydrographs for selected watch points in the study area. Two scenarios are simulated and compared: 1) infiltration capacity from soil only and 2) the augmented infiltration capacity of soil due to vegetation. Modeled results show a notable decrease in both total runoff volume and peak flows under the augmented infiltration scenario. This decrease demonstrates the benefit of native Texas prairie land in reducing flood risks.

  15. Rapid Monte Carlo simulation of detector DQE(f)

    PubMed Central

    Star-Lack, Josh; Sun, Mingshan; Meyer, Andre; Morf, Daniel; Constantin, Dragos; Fahrig, Rebecca; Abel, Eric

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Performance optimization of indirect x-ray detectors requires proper characterization of both ionizing (gamma) and optical photon transport in a heterogeneous medium. As the tool of choice for modeling detector physics, Monte Carlo methods have failed to gain traction as a design utility, due mostly to excessive simulation times and a lack of convenient simulation packages. The most important figure-of-merit in assessing detector performance is the detective quantum efficiency (DQE), for which most of the computational burden has traditionally been associated with the determination of the noise power spectrum (NPS) from an ensemble of flood images, each conventionally having 107 − 109 detected gamma photons. In this work, the authors show that the idealized conditions inherent in a numerical simulation allow for a dramatic reduction in the number of gamma and optical photons required to accurately predict the NPS. Methods: The authors derived an expression for the mean squared error (MSE) of a simulated NPS when computed using the International Electrotechnical Commission-recommended technique based on taking the 2D Fourier transform of flood images. It is shown that the MSE is inversely proportional to the number of flood images, and is independent of the input fluence provided that the input fluence is above a minimal value that avoids biasing the estimate. The authors then propose to further lower the input fluence so that each event creates a point-spread function rather than a flood field. The authors use this finding as the foundation for a novel algorithm in which the characteristic MTF(f), NPS(f), and DQE(f) curves are simultaneously generated from the results of a single run. The authors also investigate lowering the number of optical photons used in a scintillator simulation to further increase efficiency. Simulation results are compared with measurements performed on a Varian AS1000 portal imager, and with a previously published simulation performed using clinical fluence levels. Results: On the order of only 10–100 gamma photons per flood image were required to be detected to avoid biasing the NPS estimate. This allowed for a factor of 107 reduction in fluence compared to clinical levels with no loss of accuracy. An optimal signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) was achieved by increasing the number of flood images from a typical value of 100 up to 500, thereby illustrating the importance of flood image quantity over the number of gammas per flood. For the point-spread ensemble technique, an additional 2× reduction in the number of incident gammas was realized. As a result, when modeling gamma transport in a thick pixelated array, the simulation time was reduced from 2.5 × 106 CPU min if using clinical fluence levels to 3.1 CPU min if using optimized fluence levels while also producing a higher SNR. The AS1000 DQE(f) simulation entailing both optical and radiative transport matched experimental results to within 11%, and required 14.5 min to complete on a single CPU. Conclusions: The authors demonstrate the feasibility of accurately modeling x-ray detector DQE(f) with completion times on the order of several minutes using a single CPU. Convenience of simulation can be achieved using GEANT4 which offers both gamma and optical photon transport capabilities. PMID:24593734

  16. Rapid Monte Carlo simulation of detector DQE(f)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Star-Lack, Josh, E-mail: josh.starlack@varian.com; Sun, Mingshan; Abel, Eric

    2014-03-15

    Purpose: Performance optimization of indirect x-ray detectors requires proper characterization of both ionizing (gamma) and optical photon transport in a heterogeneous medium. As the tool of choice for modeling detector physics, Monte Carlo methods have failed to gain traction as a design utility, due mostly to excessive simulation times and a lack of convenient simulation packages. The most important figure-of-merit in assessing detector performance is the detective quantum efficiency (DQE), for which most of the computational burden has traditionally been associated with the determination of the noise power spectrum (NPS) from an ensemble of flood images, each conventionally having 10{supmore » 7} − 10{sup 9} detected gamma photons. In this work, the authors show that the idealized conditions inherent in a numerical simulation allow for a dramatic reduction in the number of gamma and optical photons required to accurately predict the NPS. Methods: The authors derived an expression for the mean squared error (MSE) of a simulated NPS when computed using the International Electrotechnical Commission-recommended technique based on taking the 2D Fourier transform of flood images. It is shown that the MSE is inversely proportional to the number of flood images, and is independent of the input fluence provided that the input fluence is above a minimal value that avoids biasing the estimate. The authors then propose to further lower the input fluence so that each event creates a point-spread function rather than a flood field. The authors use this finding as the foundation for a novel algorithm in which the characteristic MTF(f), NPS(f), and DQE(f) curves are simultaneously generated from the results of a single run. The authors also investigate lowering the number of optical photons used in a scintillator simulation to further increase efficiency. Simulation results are compared with measurements performed on a Varian AS1000 portal imager, and with a previously published simulation performed using clinical fluence levels. Results: On the order of only 10–100 gamma photons per flood image were required to be detected to avoid biasing the NPS estimate. This allowed for a factor of 10{sup 7} reduction in fluence compared to clinical levels with no loss of accuracy. An optimal signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) was achieved by increasing the number of flood images from a typical value of 100 up to 500, thereby illustrating the importance of flood image quantity over the number of gammas per flood. For the point-spread ensemble technique, an additional 2× reduction in the number of incident gammas was realized. As a result, when modeling gamma transport in a thick pixelated array, the simulation time was reduced from 2.5 × 10{sup 6} CPU min if using clinical fluence levels to 3.1 CPU min if using optimized fluence levels while also producing a higher SNR. The AS1000 DQE(f) simulation entailing both optical and radiative transport matched experimental results to within 11%, and required 14.5 min to complete on a single CPU. Conclusions: The authors demonstrate the feasibility of accurately modeling x-ray detector DQE(f) with completion times on the order of several minutes using a single CPU. Convenience of simulation can be achieved using GEANT4 which offers both gamma and optical photon transport capabilities.« less

  17. Femtoelectron-Based Terahertz Imaging of Hydration State in a Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buaphad, P.; Thamboon, P.; Kangrang, N.; Rhodes, M. W.; Thongbai, C.

    2015-08-01

    Imbalanced water management in a proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell significantly reduces the cell performance and durability. Visualization of water distribution and transport can provide greater comprehension toward optimization of the PEM fuel cell. In this work, we are interested in water flooding issues that occurred in flow channels on cathode side of the PEM fuel cell. The sample cell was fabricated with addition of a transparent acrylic window allowing light access and observed the process of flooding formation (in situ) via a CCD camera. We then explore potential use of terahertz (THz) imaging, consisting of femtoelectron-based THz source and off-angle reflective-mode imaging, to identify water presence in the sample cell. We present simulations of two hydration states (water and nonwater area), which are in agreement with the THz image results. A line-scan plot is utilized for quantitative analysis and for defining spatial resolution of the image. Implementing metal mesh filtering can improve spatial resolution of our THz imaging system.

  18. Plants are less negatively affected by flooding when growing in species-rich plant communities.

    PubMed

    Wright, Alexandra J; de Kroon, Hans; Visser, Eric J W; Buchmann, Tina; Ebeling, Anne; Eisenhauer, Nico; Fischer, Christine; Hildebrandt, Anke; Ravenek, Janneke; Roscher, Christiane; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang; Voesenek, Laurentius A C J; Mommer, Liesje

    2017-01-01

    Flooding is expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future. The ecological consequences of flooding are the combined result of species-specific plant traits and ecological context. However, the majority of past flooding research has focused on individual model species under highly controlled conditions. An early summer flooding event in a grassland biodiversity experiment in Jena, Germany, provided the opportunity to assess flooding responses of 60 grassland species in monocultures and 16-species mixtures. We examined plant biomass, species-specific traits (plant height, specific leaf area (SLA), root aerenchyma, starch content) and soil porosity. We found that, on average, plant species were less negatively affected by the flood when grown in higher-diversity plots in July 2013. By September 2013, grasses were unaffected by the flood regardless of plant diversity, and legumes were severely negatively affected regardless of plant diversity. Plants with greater SLA and more root aerenchyma performed better in September. Soil porosity was higher in higher-diversity plots and had a positive effect on plant performance. As floods become more frequent and severe in the future, growing flood-sensitive plants in higher-diversity communities and in soil with greater soil aeration may attenuate the most negative effects of flooding. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

  19. An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adler, Robert

    2007-01-01

    Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM, topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flood direction. flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) spatially distributed hydrological models to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay thc input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to the users and decision-makers. Early results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events. Case studies of this experimental system are evaluated with surface runoff data and other river monitoring systems. such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory's "Surface Water Watch" array of river reaches that are measured daily via other satellite remote sensing data. A major outcome of this progress will be the availability of a global overview of flood alerts that should consequently improve the performance of Decision Support System. We expect these developments in utilization of satellite remote sensing technology to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building a cost-effective early warning system for data scarce and under-developed areas.

  20. The 3D Elevation Program—Flood risk management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carswell, William J.; Lukas, Vicki

    2018-01-25

    Flood-damage reduction in the United States has been a longstanding but elusive societal goal. The national strategy for reducing flood damage has shifted over recent decades from a focus on construction of flood-control dams and levee systems to a three-pronged strategy to (1) improve the design and operation of such structures, (2) provide more accurate and accessible flood forecasting, and (3) shift the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Flood Insurance Program to a more balanced, less costly flood-insurance paradigm. Expanding the availability and use of high-quality, three-dimensional (3D) elevation information derived from modern light detection and ranging (lidar) technologies to provide essential terrain data poses a singular opportunity to dramatically enhance the effectiveness of all three components of this strategy. Additionally, FEMA, the National Weather Service, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have developed tools and joint program activities to support the national strategy.The USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) has the programmatic infrastructure to produce and provide essential terrain data. This infrastructure includes (1) data acquisition partnerships that leverage funding and reduce duplicative efforts, (2) contracts with experienced private mapping firms that ensure acquisition of consistent, low-cost 3D elevation data, and (3) the technical expertise, standards, and specifications required for consistent, edge-to-edge utility across multiple collection platforms and public access unfettered by individual database designs and limitations.High-quality elevation data, like that collected through 3DEP, are invaluable for assessing and documenting flood risk and communicating detailed information to both responders and planners alike. Multiple flood-mapping programs make use of USGS streamflow and 3DEP data. Flood insurance rate maps, flood documentation studies, and flood-inundation map libraries are products of these programs.

  1. The effects of low impact development on urban flooding under different rainfall characteristics.

    PubMed

    Qin, Hua-peng; Li, Zhuo-xi; Fu, Guangtao

    2013-11-15

    Low impact development (LID) is generally regarded as a more sustainable solution for urban stormwater management than conventional urban drainage systems. However, its effects on urban flooding at a scale of urban drainage systems have not been fully understood particularly when different rainfall characteristics are considered. In this paper, using an urbanizing catchment in China as a case study, the effects of three LID techniques (swale, permeable pavement and green roof) on urban flooding are analyzed and compared with the conventional drainage system design. A range of storm events with different rainfall amounts, durations and locations of peak intensity are considered for holistic assessment of the LID techniques. The effects are measured by the total flood volume reduction during a storm event compared to the conventional drainage system design. The results obtained indicate that all three LID scenarios are more effective in flood reduction during heavier and shorter storm events. Their performance, however, varies significantly according to the location of peak intensity. That is, swales perform best during a storm event with an early peak, permeable pavements perform best with a middle peak, and green roofs perform best with a late peak, respectively. The trends of flood reduction can be explained using a newly proposed water balance method, i.e., by comparing the effective storage depth of the LID designs with the accumulative rainfall amounts at the beginning and end of flooding in the conventional drainage system. This paper provides an insight into the performance of LID designs under different rainfall characteristics, which is essential for effective urban flood management. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Evaluation of low impact development approach for mitigating flood inundation at a watershed scale in China.

    PubMed

    Hu, Maochuan; Sayama, Takahiro; Zhang, Xingqi; Tanaka, Kenji; Takara, Kaoru; Yang, Hong

    2017-05-15

    Low impact development (LID) has attracted growing attention as an important approach for urban flood mitigation. Most studies evaluating LID performance for mitigating floods focus on the changes of peak flow and runoff volume. This paper assessed the performance of LID practices for mitigating flood inundation hazards as retrofitting technologies in an urbanized watershed in Nanjing, China. The findings indicate that LID practices are effective for flood inundation mitigation at the watershed scale, and especially for reducing inundated areas with a high flood hazard risk. Various scenarios of LID implementation levels can reduce total inundated areas by 2%-17% and areas with a high flood hazard level by 6%-80%. Permeable pavement shows better performance than rainwater harvesting against mitigating urban waterlogging. The most efficient scenario is combined rainwater harvesting on rooftops with a cistern capacity of 78.5 mm and permeable pavement installed on 75% of non-busy roads and other impervious surfaces. Inundation modeling is an effective approach to obtaining the information necessary to guide decision-making for designing LID practices at watershed scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool for the identification of hotspots along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armaroli, Clara; Duo, Enrico; Ciavola, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    The Emilia-Romagna coastline is located in northern Italy, facing the Adriatic sea. The area is especially exposed to the flooding hazard because of its low lying nature, high urbanisation and the large exploitation of beach resources for tourism. The identification of hotspots where marine flooding can cause significant damages is, therefore, a key issue. The methodology implemented to identify hotspots is based on the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool that was developed in the RISC-KIT project (www.risckit.eu). The tool combines the hazard component with different exposure indicators and is applied along predefined coastal sectors of almost 1 Km alongshore length. The coastline was divided into 106 sectors in which each component was analysed. The hazard part was evaluated through the computation of maximum water levels, obtained as the sum of wave set-up, storm surge and tide, calculated along representative beach profiles, one per sector, and for two return periods (10 and 100 years). The data for the computation of the maximum water level were extracted from the literature. The landward extension of flood-prone areas in each sector was the extension of the flood maps produced by the regional authorities for the EU Flood Directive and for the same return periods. The exposure indicators were evaluated taking into account the location and type of different assets in each sector and in flood-prone areas. Specifically, the assets that were taken into account are: the transport network, the utilities (water, gas and electricity) networks, the land use typologies, the social vulnerability status of the population and the business sector. Each component was then ranked from 1 to 5, considering a scale based on their computed value (hazard), importance and location (exposure indicators). A final coastal index (CI) was computed as the root mean square of the geometrical mean of the exposure indicators multiplied by the hazard indicator. Land use typologies were valued taking into account a classification produced by the regional authorities for the Flood Directive. The social vulnerability status of the population was derived from data produced by the National Statistic Institute. The regional managers provided the location of transport and utilities networks. The business indicator was built considering the tourist arrivals in each coastal municipality compared to the total number of arrivals. The results showed that the coast is very exposed to flooding and that the 100 year return period event leads to the identification of a large number of hotspots (65 over 106) defined as sectors with CI > 2.5. The main drivers for the hotspot identification were the hazard indicator and the land use typologies, because important transport/utilities network are not located in flood-prone areas. The most critical sectors are situated in the central-southern part of the coastline, where the most attractive tourist facilities are located and where the coastal corridor is occupied by a continuous urbanisation.

  4. Constraints on continental accretion from sedimentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abbott, Dallas

    1988-01-01

    Heat loss in the ancient Earth was discussed assuming that classical sea floor spreading was the only mechanism. This may be expressed as faster spreading or longer total ridge length. These have important implications as to the size and number of cratonic plates in the distant past, the degree to which they are flooded, the kinds of sediments and volcanics that would be expected, and the amount of recycling of continental material taking place. The higher proportion of marine sedimentary rocks and oceanic volcanics in the Archean, and the relative paucity of evaporites and continental volcanics may in part be due to smaller cratonic blocks. A model was developed of the percentage of continental flooding which utilizes round continents and a constant width of the zone of flooding. This model produces a reasonable good fit to the percentage of flooding on the present day continents.

  5. Fargo-Moorhead Urban Study. Flood Control Appendix.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-05-01

    area is Fargo clay locally known as gumbo. Crops best grown in the soil include wheat, barley, flax, rye , alfalfa, sweet clover and corn. Potatoes do...land as possible and reduce the amount of sediment and pollutants entering waterways. 8 0 Apply more cover crops and utilize minimum tillage practices to...3. RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) 5. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED FARGO-MOORHEAD URBAN STUDY; Flood Control FINAL, ?- 8-20

  6. Upper Minnesota River Subbasins Study (Public Law 87-639). Stage 1. Report Alternatives.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-01-01

    cropland, pasture, range or woodland. This Includes farmsteads, farm roads,*feed lots, fence rowis, wildlife land, and rural nonfarm land. 32...HABITAT 7 EXCESS WATER ON AGRICULTURAL LAND 7 NEED FOR ADDITIONAL RECREATION OPPORTUNITIES 8 WATER SUPPLY NEED 8 NEED TO DEVELOP HYDROELECTRIC POWER 8...installation of works of improvement needed for flood prevention or the conser- vation, development , utilization and disposal of water, and for flood control

  7. Guideline for assessing the performance of electric power systems in natural hazard and human threat events

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, W.U.; Nishenko, S.P.; Honegger, D.G.; Kempner, L.

    2006-01-01

    Electric power utilities are familiar with and skilled in preparing for and responding to almost-routine natural hazard events such as strong wind and ice storms and seasonal floods, as well as intentional human acts such as vandalism. Recent extreme weather (hurricanes Katrina and Rita), extremely destructive international earthquakes (in Sumatra and Pakistan), and nation-wide concerns regarding future terrorist attacks have increased the pressure on utilities to take appropriate steps to avoid being overwhelmed by such infrequent and exceedingly severe events. Determining what constitutes the appropriate steps to take requires various levels of understanding of the specific hazards and the risks faced by the utility. The American Lifelines Alliance (www. americanlifelinesalliance.org) has prepared a Guideline that provides clear, concise, and nationally-applicable guidance on determining the scope and level of effort necessary to assess power system performance in the wide range of natural hazard or human threat events. Included in this Guideline are specific procedures to follow and information to consider in performing standardized assessments. With the results of such assessments, utility owners can effectively establish and carry out risk management programs that will lead to achieving appropriate levels of performance in future events. The Guideline incorporates an inquiry-driven process with a two-phase performance assessment that can be applied to power systems of any size. The screening phase enables systems or components that are clearly not at risk to be screened out early. The subsequent analysis phase uses results from the screening phase to prioritize and allocate resources for more detailed assessments of hazard, vulnerability, and system performance. This process helps assure that the scope of the assessment meets the specific performance objectives of the inquiry. A case history is presented to illustrate the type of experience with an inquiry-driven process that was considered in developing the Guideline to meet the diverse needs of utility personnel in engineering, operations, and management. Copyright ASCE 2007.

  8. Flooding tolerance of four floodplain meadow species depends on age.

    PubMed

    Gattringer, Johannes P; Donath, Tobias W; Eckstein, R Lutz; Ludewig, Kristin; Otte, Annette; Harvolk-Schöning, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Numerous restoration campaigns focused on re-establishing species-rich floodplain meadows of Central Europe, whose species composition is essentially controlled by regular flooding. Climate change predictions expect strong alterations on the discharge regime of Europe's large rivers with little-known consequences on floodplain meadow plants. In this study, we aim to determine the effects of flooding on seedlings of different ages of four typical flood meadow species. To this end, we flooded seedlings of two familial pairs of flood meadow species of wetter and dryer microhabitats for 2 weeks each, starting 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks after seedling germination, respectively. We show that a 2-week-flooding treatment had a negative effect on performance of seedlings younger than 6 weeks. Summer floods with high floodwater temperatures may have especially detrimental effects on seedlings, which is corroborated by previous findings. As expected, the plants from wet floodplain meadow microhabitats coped better with the flooding treatment than those from dryer microhabitats. In conclusion, our results suggest that restoration measures may perform more successfully if seedlings of restored species are older than the critical age of about 6 weeks before a spring flooding begins. Seasonal flow patterns may influence vegetation dynamics of floodplain meadows and should, therefore, be taken into account when timing future restoration campaigns.

  9. Flooding tolerance of four floodplain meadow species depends on age

    PubMed Central

    Donath, Tobias W.; Eckstein, R. Lutz; Ludewig, Kristin; Otte, Annette; Harvolk-Schöning, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Numerous restoration campaigns focused on re-establishing species-rich floodplain meadows of Central Europe, whose species composition is essentially controlled by regular flooding. Climate change predictions expect strong alterations on the discharge regime of Europe’s large rivers with little-known consequences on floodplain meadow plants. In this study, we aim to determine the effects of flooding on seedlings of different ages of four typical flood meadow species. To this end, we flooded seedlings of two familial pairs of flood meadow species of wetter and dryer microhabitats for 2 weeks each, starting 2, 4, 6, and 8 weeks after seedling germination, respectively. We show that a 2-week-flooding treatment had a negative effect on performance of seedlings younger than 6 weeks. Summer floods with high floodwater temperatures may have especially detrimental effects on seedlings, which is corroborated by previous findings. As expected, the plants from wet floodplain meadow microhabitats coped better with the flooding treatment than those from dryer microhabitats. In conclusion, our results suggest that restoration measures may perform more successfully if seedlings of restored species are older than the critical age of about 6 weeks before a spring flooding begins. Seasonal flow patterns may influence vegetation dynamics of floodplain meadows and should, therefore, be taken into account when timing future restoration campaigns. PMID:28467463

  10. Flood Inundation Modelling in the Kuantan River Basin using 1D-2D Flood Modeller coupled with ASTER-GDEM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Z. F.; Gisen, J. I.; Akbari, A.

    2018-03-01

    Topography dataset is an important input in performing flood inundation modelling. However, it is always difficult to obtain high resolution topography that provide accurate elevation information. Fortunately, there are some open source topography datasets available with reasonable resolution such as SRTM and ASTER-GDEM. In Malaysia particularly in Kuantan, the modelling research on the floodplain area is still lacking. This research aims to: a) to investigate the suitability of ASTER-GDEM to be applied in the 1D-2D flood inundation modelling for the Kuantan River Basin; b) to generate flood inundation map for Kuantan river basin. The topography dataset used in this study is ASTER-GDEM to generate physical characteristics of watershed in the basin. It is used to perform rainfall runoff modelling for hydrological studies and to delineate flood inundation area in the Flood Modeller. The results obtained have shown that a 30m resolution ASTER-GDEM is applicable as an input for the 1D-2D flood modelling. The simulated water level in 2013 has NSE of 0.644 and RSME of 1.259. As a conclusion, ASTER-GDEM can be used as one alternative topography datasets for flood inundation modelling. However, the flood level obtained from the hydraulic modelling shows low accuracy at flat urban areas.

  11. Prediction of Ungauged River Basin for Hydro Power Potential and Flood Risk Mitigation; a Case Study at Gin River, Sri Lanka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ratnayake, A. S.

    2011-12-01

    The most of the primary civilizations of the world emerged in or near river valleys or floodplains. The river channels and floodplains are single hydrologic and geomorphic system. The failure to appreciate the integral connection between floodplains and channel underlies many socioeconomic and environmental problems in river management today. However it is a difficult task of collecting reliable field hydrological data. Under such situations either synthetic or statistically generated data were used for hydraulic engineering designing and flood modeling. The fundamentals of precipitation-runoff relationship through synthetic unit hydrograph for Gin River basin were prepared using the method of the Flood Studies Report of the National Environmental Research Council, United Kingdom (1975). The Triangular Irregular Network model was constructed using Geographic Information System (GIS) to determine hazard prone zones. The 1:10,000 and 1:50,000 topography maps and field excursions were also used for initial site selection of mini-hydro power units and determine flooding area. The turbines output power generations were calculated using the parameters of net head and efficiency of turbine. The peak discharge achieves within 4.74 hours from the onset of the rainstorm and 11.95 hours time takes to reach its normal discharge conditions of Gin River basin. Stream frequency of Gin River is 4.56 (Junctions/ km2) while the channel slope is 7.90 (m/km). The regional coefficient on the catchment is 0.00296. Higher stream frequency and gentle channel slope were recognized as the flood triggering factors of Gin River basin and other parameters such as basins catchment area, main stream length, standard average annual rainfall and soil do not show any significant variations with other catchments of Sri Lanka. The flood management process, including control of flood disaster, prepared for a flood, and minimize it impacts are complicated in human population encroached and modified floodplains. Thus modern GIS technology has been productively executed to prepare hazard maps based on the flood modeling and also it would be further utilized for disaster preparedness and mitigation activities. Five suitable hydraulic heads were recognized for mini-hydro power sites and it would be the most economical and applicable flood controlling hydraulic engineering structure considering all morphologic, climatic, environmental and socioeconomic proxies of the study area. Mini-hydro power sites also utilized as clean, eco friendly and reliable energy source (8630.0 kW). Finally Francis Turbine can be employed as the most efficiency turbine for the selected sites bearing in mind of both technical and economical parameters.

  12. A Bayesian Surrogate for Regional Skew in Flood Frequency Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuczera, George

    1983-06-01

    The problem of how to best utilize site and regional flood data to infer the shape parameter of a flood distribution is considered. One approach to this problem is given in Bulletin 17B of the U.S. Water Resources Council (1981) for the log-Pearson distribution. Here a lesser known distribution is considered, namely, the power normal which fits flood data as well as the log-Pearson and has a shape parameter denoted by λ derived from a Box-Cox power transformation. The problem of regionalizing λ is considered from an empirical Bayes perspective where site and regional flood data are used to infer λ. The distortive effects of spatial correlation and heterogeneity of site sampling variance of λ are explicitly studied with spatial correlation being found to be of secondary importance. The end product of this analysis is the posterior distribution of the power normal parameters expressing, in probabilistic terms, what is known about the parameters given site flood data and regional information on λ. This distribution can be used to provide the designer with several types of information. The posterior distribution of the T-year flood is derived. The effect of nonlinearity in λ on inference is illustrated. Because uncertainty in λ is explicitly allowed for, the understatement in confidence limits due to fixing λ (analogous to fixing log skew) is avoided. Finally, it is shown how to obtain the marginal flood distribution which can be used to select a design flood with specified exceedance probability.

  13. Rapid-response flood mapping during Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria by the Global Flood Partnership (GFP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, S.; Alfieri, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Coughlan, E.; Galantowicz, J. F.; Hong, Y.; Kettner, A.; Nghiem, S. V.; Prados, A. I.; Rudari, R.; Salamon, P.; Trigg, M.; Weerts, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Global Flood Partnership (GFP; https://gfp.jrc.ec.europa.eu) is a multi-disciplinary group of scientists, operational agencies and flood risk managers focused on developing efficient and effective global flood management tools. Launched in 2014, its aim is to establish a partnership for global flood forecasting, monitoring and impact assessment to strengthen preparedness and response and to reduce global disaster losses. International organizations, the private sector, national authorities, universities and research agencies contribute to the GFP on a voluntary basis and benefit from a global network focused on flood risk reduction. At the onset of Hurricane Harvey, GFP was `activated' using email requests via its mailing service. Soon after, flood inundation maps, based on remote sensing analysis and modeling, were shared by different agencies, institutions, and individuals. These products were disseminated, to varying degrees of effectiveness, to federal, state and local agencies via emails and data-sharing services. This generated a broad data-sharing network which was utilized at the early stages of Hurricane Irma's impact, just two weeks after Harvey. In this presentation, we will describe the extent and chronology of the GFP response to both Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. We will assess the potential usefulness of this effort for event managers in various types of organizations and discuss future improvements to be implemented.

  14. Decision Support for Emergency Operations Centers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harvey, Craig; Lawhead, Joel; Watts, Zack

    2005-01-01

    The Flood Disaster Mitigation Decision Support System (DSS) is a computerized information system that allows regional emergency-operations government officials to make decisions regarding the dispatch of resources in response to flooding. The DSS implements a real-time model of inundation utilizing recently acquired lidar elevation data as well as real-time data from flood gauges, and other instruments within and upstream of an area that is or could become flooded. The DSS information is updated as new data become available. The model generates realtime maps of flooded areas and predicts flood crests at specified locations. The inundation maps are overlaid with information on population densities, property values, hazardous materials, evacuation routes, official contact information, and other information needed for emergency response. The program maintains a database and a Web portal through which real-time data from instrumentation are gathered into the database. Also included in the database is a geographic information system, from which the program obtains the overlay data for areas of interest as needed. The portal makes some portions of the database accessible to the public. Access to other portions of the database is restricted to government officials according to various levels of authorization. The Flood Disaster Mitigation DSS has been integrated into a larger DSS named REACT (Real-time Emergency Action Coordination Tool), which also provides emergency operations managers with data for any type of impact area such as floods, fires, bomb

  15. Assessment of Institutional Capacities of Flood Management Institution in Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Noor M.

    2009-03-01

    Pakistan is frequently devastated by floods. The flood impacts can be reduced if the flood management institutional capacities are improved. This paper reviews and assesses the capacities of flood management institution in Pakistan. Citing a number of case studies about the flood management practices in Pakistan, the study estimates the weaknesses and strengths of the institution with respect to various phases of flood management, namely, mitigation, preparedness, response, and rehabilitation and also with respect to various characteristics of institutions, namely, deliberation, coordination, implementation, and evaluation, using an improved capacity assessment framework. It has been found that the performance of the mitigation and rehabilitation phases is not satisfactory and that of preparedness and response is satisfactory. It is concluded that the functions of deliberation need to be improved while the other three characteristics of institution namely, coordination, implementation, and evaluation are performing well. The study will help the policy makers to concentrate on the identified weak capacities.

  16. Transcriptome responses of an ungrafted Phytophthora root rot tolerant avocado (Persea americana) rootstock to flooding and Phytophthora cinnamomi.

    PubMed

    Reeksting, B J; Olivier, N A; van den Berg, N

    2016-09-22

    Avocado (Persea americana Mill.) is a commercially important fruit crop worldwide. A major limitation to production is the oomycete Phytophthora cinnamomi, which causes root rot leading to branch-dieback and tree death. The decline of orchards infected with P. cinnamomi occurs much faster when exposed to flooding, even if flooding is only transient. Flooding is a multifactorial stress compromised of several individual stresses, making breeding and selection for tolerant varieties challenging. With more plantations occurring in marginal areas, with imperfect irrigation and drainage, understanding the response of avocado to these stresses will be important for the industry. Maintenance of energy production was found to be central in the response to flooding, as seen by up-regulation of transcripts related to glycolysis and induction of transcripts related to ethanolic fermentation. Energy-intensive processes were generally down-regulated, as evidenced by repression of transcripts related to processes such as secondary cell-wall biosynthesis as well as defence-related transcripts. Aquaporins were found to be down-regulated in avocado roots exposed to flooding, indicating reduced water-uptake under these conditions. The transcriptomic response of avocado to flooding and P. cinnamomi was investigated utilizing microarray analysis. Differences in the transcriptome caused by the presence of the pathogen were minor compared to transcriptomic perturbations caused by flooding. The transcriptomic response of avocado to flooding reveals a response to flooding that is conserved in several species. This data could provide key information that could be used to improve selection of stress tolerant rootstocks in the avocado industry.

  17. A method for mapping flood hazard along roads.

    PubMed

    Kalantari, Zahra; Nickman, Alireza; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

    2014-01-15

    A method was developed for estimating and mapping flood hazard probability along roads using road and catchment characteristics as physical catchment descriptors (PCDs). The method uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to derive candidate PCDs and then identifies those PCDs that significantly predict road flooding using a statistical modelling approach. The method thus allows flood hazards to be estimated and also provides insights into the relative roles of landscape characteristics in determining road-related flood hazards. The method was applied to an area in western Sweden where severe road flooding had occurred during an intense rain event as a case study to demonstrate its utility. The results suggest that for this case study area three categories of PCDs are useful for prediction of critical spots prone to flooding along roads: i) topography, ii) soil type, and iii) land use. The main drivers among the PCDs considered were a topographical wetness index, road density in the catchment, soil properties in the catchment (mainly the amount of gravel substrate) and local channel slope at the site of a road-stream intersection. These can be proposed as strong indicators for predicting the flood probability in ungauged river basins in this region, but some care is needed in generalising the case study results other potential factors are also likely to influence the flood hazard probability. Overall, the method proposed represents a straightforward and consistent way to estimate flooding hazards to inform both the planning of future roadways and the maintenance of existing roadways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Benefits of flooding-induced aquatic adventitious roots depend on the duration of submergence: linking plant performance to root functioning.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qian; Huber, Heidrun; Beljaars, Simone J M; Birnbaum, Diana; de Best, Sander; de Kroon, Hans; Visser, Eric J W

    2017-07-01

    Temporal flooding is a common environmental stress for terrestrial plants. Aquatic adventitious roots (aquatic roots) are commonly formed in flooding-tolerant plant species and are generally assumed to be beneficial for plant growth by supporting water and nutrient uptake during partial flooding. However, the actual contribution of these roots to plant performance under flooding has hardly been quantified. As the investment into aquatic root development in terms of carbohydrates may be costly, these costs may - depending on the specific environmental conditions - offset the beneficial effects of aquatic roots. This study tested the hypothesis that the balance between potential costs and benefits depends on the duration of flooding, as the benefits are expected to outweigh the costs in long-term but not in short-term flooding. The contribution of aquatic roots to plant performance was tested in Solanum dulcamara during 1-4 weeks of partial submergence and by experimentally manipulating root production. Nutrient uptake by aquatic roots, transpiration and photosynthesis were measured in plants differing in aquatic root development to assess the specific function of these roots. As predicted, flooded plants benefited from the presence of aquatic roots. The results showed that this was probably due to the contribution of roots to resource uptake. However, these beneficial effects were only present in long-term but not in short-term flooding. This relationship could be explained by the correlation between nutrient uptake and the flooding duration-dependent size of the aquatic root system. The results indicate that aquatic root formation is likely to be selected for in habitats characterized by long-term flooding. This study also revealed only limited costs associated with adventitious root formation, which may explain the maintenance of the ability to produce aquatic roots in habitats characterized by very rare or short flooding events. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  19. An Investigation on the Sensitivity of the Parameters of Urban Flood Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    M, A. B.; Lohani, B.; Jain, A.

    2015-12-01

    Global climatic change has triggered weather patterns which lead to heavy and sudden rainfall in different parts of world. The impact of heavy rainfall is severe especially on urban areas in the form of urban flooding. In order to understand the effect of heavy rainfall induced flooding, it is necessary to model the entire flooding scenario more accurately, which is now becoming possible with the availability of high resolution airborne LiDAR data and other real time observations. However, there is not much understanding on the optimal use of these data and on the effect of other parameters on the performance of the flood model. This study aims at developing understanding on these issues. In view of the above discussion, the aim of this study is to (i) understand that how the use of high resolution LiDAR data improves the performance of urban flood model, and (ii) understand the sensitivity of various hydrological parameters on urban flood modelling. In this study, modelling of flooding in urban areas due to heavy rainfall is carried out considering Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, India as the study site. The existing model MIKE FLOOD, which is accepted by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is used along with the high resolution airborne LiDAR data. Once the model is setup it is made to run by changing the parameters such as resolution of Digital Surface Model (DSM), manning's roughness, initial losses, catchment description, concentration time, runoff reduction factor. In order to realize this, the results obtained from the model are compared with the field observations. The parametric study carried out in this work demonstrates that the selection of catchment description plays a very important role in urban flood modelling. Results also show the significant impact of resolution of DSM, initial losses and concentration time on urban flood model. This study will help in understanding the effect of various parameters that should be part of a flood model for its accurate performance.

  20. A coupled hydrological-hydraulic flood inundation model calibrated using post-event measurements and integrated uncertainty analysis in a poorly gauged Mediterranean basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Colin, Francois

    2017-04-01

    Developing flood inundation maps of defined exceedance probabilities is required to provide information on the flood hazard and the associated risk. A methodology has been developed to model flood inundation in poorly gauged basins, where reliable information on the hydrological characteristics of floods are uncertain and partially captured by the traditional rain-gauge networks. Flood inundation is performed through coupling a hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) model (HEC-HMS) with a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS). The RR model is calibrated against the January 2013 flood event in the Awali River basin, Lebanon (300 km2), whose flood peak discharge was estimated by post-event measurements. The resulting flows of the RR model are defined as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model, which is run to generate the corresponding water surface profiles and calibrated against 20 post-event surveyed cross sections after the January-2013 flood event. An uncertainty analysis is performed to assess the results of the models. Consequently, the coupled flood inundation model is simulated with design storms and flood inundation maps are generated of defined exceedance probabilities. The peak discharges estimated by the simulated RR model were in close agreement with the results from different empirical and statistical methods. This methodology can be extended to other poorly gauged basins facing common stage-gauge failure or characterized by floods with a stage exceeding the gauge measurement level, or higher than that defined by the rating curve.

  1. FEQinput—An editor for the full equations (FEQ) hydraulic modeling system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ancalle, David S.; Ancalle, Pablo J.; Domanski, Marian M.

    2017-10-30

    IntroductionThe Full Equations Model (FEQ) is a computer program that solves the full, dynamic equations of motion for one-dimensional unsteady hydraulic flow in open channels and through control structures. As a result, hydrologists have used FEQ to design and operate flood-control structures, delineate inundation maps, and analyze peak-flow impacts. To aid in fighting floods, hydrologists are using the software to develop a system that uses flood-plain models to simulate real-time streamflow.Input files for FEQ are composed of text files that contain large amounts of parameters, data, and instructions that are written in a format exclusive to FEQ. Although documentation exists that can aid in the creation and editing of these input files, new users face a steep learning curve in order to understand the specific format and language of the files.FEQinput provides a set of tools to help a new user overcome the steep learning curve associated with creating and modifying input files for the FEQ hydraulic model and the related utility tool, Full Equations Utilities (FEQUTL).

  2. Flood Risk Assessments of Architectural Heritage - Case of Changgyeonggung Palace

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyosang; Kim, Ji-sung; Lee, Ho-jin

    2014-05-01

    The risk of natural disasters such as flood and earthquake has increased due to recent extreme weather events. Therefore, the necessity of the risk management system to protect architectural properties, a cultural heritage of humanity, from natural disasters has been consistently felt. The solutions for managing flood risk focusing on architectural heritage are suggested and applied to protect Changgyeonggung Palace, a major palace heritage in Seoul. After the probable rainfall scenario for risk assessment (frequency: 100 years, 200 years, and 500 years) and the scenario of a probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are made and a previous rainfall event (from July 26th to 28th in 2011) is identified, they are used for the model (HEC-HMS, SWMM) to assess flood risk of certain areas covering Changgyeonggung Palace to do flood amount. Such flood amount makes it possible to identify inundation risks based on GIS models to assess flood risk of individual architectural heritage. The results of assessing such risk are used to establish the disaster risk management system that managers of architectural properties can utilize. According to the results of assessing flood risk of Changgyeonggung Palace, inundation occurs near outlets of Changgyeonggung Palace and sections of river channel for all scenarios of flood risk but the inundation risk of major architectural properties was estimated low. The methods for assessing flood risk of architectural heritage proposed in this study and the risk management system for Changgyeonggung Palace using the methods show thorough solutions for flood risk management and the possibility of using the solutions seems high. A comprehensive management system for architectural heritage will be established in the future through the review on diverse factors for disasters.

  3. First Steps towards an Interactive Real-Time Hazard Management Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gemmell, Alastair M. D.; Finlayson, Ian G.; Marston, Philip G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reports on the construction and initial testing of a computer-based interactive flood hazard management simulation, designed for undergraduates taking an applied geomorphology course. Details of the authoring interface utilized to create the simulation are presented. Students act as the managers of civil defence utilities in a fictional…

  4. The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2013-11-01

    We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model for flood predictions with lead times up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT, AMSR-E and SMOS is assimilated into the EFAS system for the Upper Danube basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into EFAS, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure optimal performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF, are used as an independent validation dataset. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 65%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of base flows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5-10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more data is assimilated into the system and the best performance is achieved with the assimilation of both discharge and satellite observations. The additional gain is highest when discharge observations from both upstream and downstream areas are used in combination with the soil moisture data. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

  5. Flood hazards studies in the Mississippi River basin using remote sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rango, A.; Anderson, A. T.

    1974-01-01

    The Spring 1973 Mississippi River flood was investigated using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1. Both manual and automatic analyses of the data indicated that ERTS-1 is extremely useful as a regional tool for flood mamagement. Quantitative estimates of area flooded were made in St. Charles County, Missouri and Arkansas. Flood hazard mapping was conducted in three study areas along the Mississippi River using pre-flood ERTS-1 imagery enlarged to 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale. Initial results indicate that ERTS-1 digital mapping of flood prone areas can be performed at 1:62,500 which is comparable to some conventional flood hazard map scales.

  6. Accessibility assessment of Houston's roadway network during Harvey through integration of observed flood impacts and hydrologic modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gidaris, I.; Gori, A.; Panakkal, P.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    The record-breaking rainfall produced over the Houston region by Hurricane Harvey resulted in catastrophic and unprecedented impacts on the region's infrastructure. Notably, Houston's transportation network was crippled, with almost every major highway flooded during the five-day event. Entire neighborhoods and subdivisions were inundated, rendering them completely inaccessible to rescue crews and emergency services. Harvey has tragically highlighted the vulnerability of major thoroughfares, as well as neighborhood roads, to severe inundation during extreme precipitation events. Furthermore, it has emphasized the need for detailed accessibility characterization of road networks under extreme event scenarios in order to determine which areas of the city are most vulnerable. This analysis assesses and tracks the accessibility of Houston's major highways during Harvey's evolution by utilizing road flood/closure data from the Texas DOT. In the absence of flooded/closure data for local roads, a hybrid approach is adopted that utilizes a physics-based hydrologic model to produce high-resolution inundation estimates for selected urban watersheds in the Houston area. In particular, hydrologic output in the form of inundation depths is used to estimate the operability of local roads. Ultimately, integration of hydrologic-based estimation of road conditions with observed data from DOT supports a network accessibility analysis of selected urban neighborhoods. This accessibility analysis can identify operable routes for emergency response (rescue crews, medical services, etc.) during the storm event.

  7. The application of Firefly algorithm in an Adaptive Emergency Evacuation Centre Management (AEECM) for dynamic relocation of flood victims

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ChePa, Noraziah; Hashim, Nor Laily; Yusof, Yuhanis; Hussain, Azham

    2016-08-01

    Flood evacuation centre is defined as a temporary location or area of people from disaster particularly flood as a rescue or precautionary measure. Gazetted evacuation centres are normally located at secure places which have small chances from being drowned by flood. However, due to extreme flood several evacuation centres in Kelantan were unexpectedly drowned. Currently, there is no study done on proposing a decision support aid to reallocate victims and resources of the evacuation centre when the situation getting worsens. Therefore, this study proposes a decision aid model to be utilized in realizing an adaptive emergency evacuation centre management system. This study undergoes two main phases; development of algorithm and models, and development of a web-based and mobile app. The proposed model operates using Firefly multi-objective optimization algorithm that creates an optimal schedule for the relocation of victims and resources for an evacuation centre. The proposed decision aid model and the adaptive system can be applied in supporting the National Security Council's respond mechanisms for handling disaster management level II (State level) especially in providing better management of the flood evacuating centres.

  8. Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

    2001-01-01

    Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

  9. Application of advection-diffusion routing model to flood wave propagation: A case study on Big Piney River, Missouri USA

    Treesearch

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2016-01-01

    Flood wave propagation modeling is of critical importance to advancing water resources management and protecting human life and property. In this study, we investigated how the advection-diffusion routing model performed in flood wave propagation on a 16 km long downstream section of the Big Piney River, MO. Model performance was based on gaging station data at the...

  10. Coastal storm monitoring in Virginia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wicklein, Shaun M.; Bennett, Mark

    2014-01-01

    Coastal communities in Virginia are prone to flooding, particularly during hurricanes, nor’easters, and other coastal low-pressure systems. These weather systems affect public safety, personal and public property, and valuable infrastructure, such as transportation, water and sewer, and electric-supply networks. Local emergency managers, utility operators, and the public are tasked with making difficult decisions regarding evacuations, road closures, and post-storm recovery efforts as a result of coastal flooding. In coastal Virginia these decisions often are made on the basis of anecdotal knowledge from past events or predictions based on data from monitoring sites located far away from the affected area that may not reflect local conditions. Preventing flood hazards, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, from becoming human disasters requires an understanding of the relative risks that flooding poses to specific communities. The risk to life and property can be very high if decisions about evacuations and road closures are made too late or not at all.

  11. Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

    2017-05-01

    The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from Twitter messages that mention locations of flooding. A deterministic flood map created for the December 2015 flood in the city of York (UK) showed good performance (F(2) = 0.69; a statistic ranging from 0 to 1, with 1 expressing a perfect fit with validation data). The probabilistic flood maps we created showed that, in the York case study, the uncertainty in flood extent was mainly induced by errors in the precise locations of flood observations as derived from Twitter data. Errors in the terrain elevation data or in the parameters of the applied algorithm contributed less to flood extent uncertainty. Although these maps tended to overestimate the actual probability of flooding, they gave a reasonable representation of flood extent uncertainty in the area. This study illustrates that inherently uncertain data from social media can be used to derive information about flooding.

  12. Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2012-11-01

    Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Integrating Hydrologic and Water Quality Models as a Decision Support Tool for Implementation of Low Impact Development in a Coastal Urban Watershed under Climate Variability and Sea Level Rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, N. B.

    2016-12-01

    Many countries concern about development and redevelopment efforts in urban regions to reduce the flood risk by considering hazards such as high-tide events, storm surge, flash floods, stormwater runoff, and impacts of sea level rise. Combining these present and future hazards with vulnerable characteristics found throughout coastal communities such as majority low-lying areas and increasing urban development, create scenarios for increasing exposure of flood hazard. As such, the most vulnerable areas require adaptation strategies and mitigation actions for flood hazard management. In addition, in the U.S., Numeric Nutrient Criteria (NNC) are a critical tool for protecting and restoring the designated uses of a waterbody with regard to nitrogen and phosphorus pollution. Strategies such as low impact development (LID) have been promoted in recent years as an alternative to traditional stormwater management and drainage to control both flooding and water quality impact. LID utilizes decentralized multifunctional site designs and incorporates on-site storm water management practices rather than conventional storm water management approaches that divert flow toward centralized facilities. How to integrate hydrologic and water quality models to achieve the decision support becomes a challenge. The Cross Bayou Watershed of Pinellas County in Tampa Bay, a highly urbanized coastal watershed, is utilized as a case study due to its sensitivity to flood hazards and water quality management within the watershed. This study will aid the County, as a decision maker, to implement its stormwater management policy and honor recent NNC state policy via demonstration of an integrated hydrologic and water quality model, including the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing Model v.4 (ICPR4) and the BMPTRAIN model as a decision support tool. The ICPR4 can be further coupled with the ADCIRC/SWAN model to reflect the storm surge and seal level rise in coastal regions.

  14. Testing an innovative framework for flood forecasting, monitoring and mapping in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Wania, Annett; Pappenberger, Florian; Salamon, Peter; Ramos, Maria Helena; Cloke, Hannah; Castillo, Carlos

    2017-04-01

    Between May and June 2016, France was hit by severe floods, particularly in the Loire and Seine river basins. In this work, we use this case study to test an innovative framework for flood forecasting, mapping and monitoring. More in detail, the system integrates in real-time two components of the Copernicus Emergency mapping services, namely the European Flood Awareness System and the satellite-based Rapid Mapping, with new procedures for rapid risk assessment and social media and news monitoring. We explore in detail the performance of each component of the system, demonstrating the improvements in respect to stand-alone flood forecasting and monitoring systems. We show how the performances of the forecasting component can be refined using the real-time feedback from social media monitoring to identify which areas were flooded, to evaluate the flood intensity, and therefore to correct impact estimations. Moreover, we show how the integration with impact forecast and social media monitoring can improve the timeliness and efficiency of satellite based emergency mapping, and reduce the chances of missing areas where flooding is already happening. These results illustrate how the new integrated approach leads to a better and earlier decision making and a timely evaluation of impacts.

  15. Multi-source data fusion and modeling to assess and communicate complex flood dynamics to support decision-making for downstream areas of dams: The 2011 hurricane irene and schoharie creek floods, NY

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renschler, Chris S.; Wang, Zhihao

    2017-10-01

    In light of climate and land use change, stakeholders around the world are interested in assessing historic and likely future flood dynamics and flood extents for decision-making in watersheds with dams as well as limited availability of stream gages and costly technical resources. This research evaluates an assessment and communication approach of combining GIS, hydraulic modeling based on latest remote sensing and topographic imagery by comparing the results to an actual flood event and available stream gages. On August 28th 2011, floods caused by Hurricane Irene swept through a large rural area in New York State, leaving thousands of people homeless, devastating towns and cities. Damage was widespread though the estimated and actual floods inundation and associated return period were still unclear since the flooding was artificially increased by flood water release due to fear of a dam break. This research uses the stream section right below the dam between two stream gages North Blenheim and Breakabeen along Schoharie Creek as a case study site to validate the approach. The data fusion approach uses a GIS, commonly available data sources, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS as well as airborne LiDAR data that were collected two days after the flood event (Aug 30, 2011). The aerial imagery of the airborne survey depicts a low flow event as well as the evidence of the record flood such as debris and other signs of damage to validate the hydrologic simulation results with the available stream gauges. Model results were also compared to the official Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood scenarios to determine the actual flood return period of the event. The dynamic of the flood levels was then used to visualize the flood and the actual loss of the Old Blenheim Bridge using Google Sketchup. Integration of multi-source data, cross-validation and visualization provides new ways to utilize pre- and post-event remote sensing imagery and hydrologic models to better understand and communicate the complex spatial-temporal dynamics, return periods and potential/actual consequences to decision-makers and the local population.

  16. The Development of Brazilian Municipalities Flooded by Hydropower Plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Araujo, N.; Moretto, E. M.; Roquetti, D. R.; Beduschi, L. C.; Praia, A.; Pulice, S.; Albiach, E.; Athayde, S.

    2016-12-01

    Hydropower plants cause negative environmental impacts during the phases of construction and operation. On the other hand, there is a general assumption that these projects also induce local development of the affected places, since there is a great influx of social and financial capital brought locally, especially during the construction phase the relationship between hydropower plant implementation s and local development has been controversial in the Environmental Impact Assessment field, and there is no empirical evidence showing how hydroelectric dam construction affects local development. Considering municipal development as a kind of local development and operationalizing the concept of human development by adopting income, longevity and education dimensions defined by Amartya Sen, this study aimed to verify empirical evidences regarding the role of hydropower plants in human development of their flooded municipalities in Brazil. For this, we considered 134 hydroelectric plants and correspondent 641 flooded municipalities, for which 155 human development indicators were obtained for the period of 2000 to 2010. Results obtained from statistical correlation analysis and their assumption tests showed that increases in the municipal flooded area and increases in the period of flooding - to which a given municipality is submitted - were associated with lower performances of human development indicators. Specifically, increases in social inequality, poverty and lower performances of longevity and education were detected for the flooded municipalities. We also found that the financial compensation was associated with better performance of municipal income and lower performances of education and longevity. Finally, approaching the growth poles theory of François Perroux and the productive linkages theory of Albert Hirschman, we suggest that the size of the flooded areas, the flooding period and the financial compensation may lead to an enclave situation in municipalities flooded by hydropower plants, considering issues of education and longevity. Furthermore, it is likely that the labor force, investments and financial compensation inputs brought by these projects to the local municipalities are not strong enough to reverse this enclave scenario.

  17. On the reliable use of satellite-derived surface water products for global flood monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirpa, F. A.; Revilla-Romero, B.; Thielen, J.; Salamon, P.; Brakenridge, R.; Pappenberger, F.; de Groeve, T.

    2015-12-01

    Early flood warning and real-time monitoring systems play a key role in flood risk reduction and disaster response management. To this end, real-time flood forecasting and satellite-based detection systems have been developed at global scale. However, due to the limited availability of up-to-date ground observations, the reliability of these systems for real-time applications have not been assessed in large parts of the globe. In this study, we performed comparative evaluations of the commonly used satellite-based global flood detections and operational flood forecasting system using 10 major flood cases reported over three years (2012-2014). Specially, we assessed the flood detection capabilities of the near real-time global flood maps from the Global Flood Detection System (GFDS), and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and the operational forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) for the major flood events recorded in global flood databases. We present the evaluation results of the global flood detection and forecasting systems in terms of correctly indicating the reported flood events and highlight the exiting limitations of each system. Finally, we propose possible ways forward to improve the reliability of large scale flood monitoring tools.

  18. Topological and canonical kriging for design flood prediction in ungauged catchments: an improvement over a traditional regional regression approach?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Archfield, Stacey A.; Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Skøien, Jon O.; Kiang, Julie E.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, estimation of flood frequency quantiles at ungauged locations has been largely based on regional regression techniques that relate measurable catchment descriptors to flood quantiles. More recently, spatial interpolation techniques of point data have been shown to be effective for predicting streamflow statistics (i.e., flood flows and low-flow indices) in ungauged catchments. Literature reports successful applications of two techniques, canonical kriging, CK (or physiographical-space-based interpolation, PSBI), and topological kriging, TK (or top-kriging). CK performs the spatial interpolation of the streamflow statistic of interest in the two-dimensional space of catchment descriptors. TK predicts the streamflow statistic along river networks taking both the catchment area and nested nature of catchments into account. It is of interest to understand how these spatial interpolation methods compare with generalized least squares (GLS) regression, one of the most common approaches to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged locations. By means of a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure, the performance of CK and TK was compared to GLS regression equations developed for the prediction of 10, 50, 100 and 500 yr floods for 61 streamgauges in the southeast United States. TK substantially outperforms GLS and CK for the study area, particularly for large catchments. The performance of TK over GLS highlights an important distinction between the treatments of spatial correlation when using regression-based or spatial interpolation methods to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged locations. The analysis also shows that coupling TK with CK slightly improves the performance of TK; however, the improvement is marginal when compared to the improvement in performance over GLS.

  19. A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use in operations and investment planning over England and Wales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.; Cole, Steven J.

    2016-04-01

    It has been common for flood forecasting systems to be commissioned at a catchment or regional level in response to local priorities and hydrological conditions, leading to variety in system design and model choice. As systems mature and efficiencies of national management are sought, there can be a drive towards system rationalisation, gaining an overview of model performance and consideration of simplification through model-type convergence. Flood forecasting model assessments, whilst overseen at a national level, may be commissioned and managed at a catchment and regional level, take a variety of forms and be large in number. This presents a challenge when an integrated national assessment is required to guide operational use of flood forecasts and plan future investment in flood forecasting models and supporting hydrometric monitoring. This contribution reports on how a nationally consistent framework for flood forecasting model performance has been developed to embrace many past, ongoing and future assessments for local river systems by engineering consultants across England & Wales. The outcome is a Performance Summary for every site model assessed which, on a single page, contains relevant catchment information for context, a selection of overlain forecast and observed hydrographs and a set of performance statistics with associated displays of novel condensed form. One display provides performance comparison with other models that may exist for the site. The performance statistics include skill scores for forecasting events (flow/level threshold crossings) of differing severity/rarity, indicating their probability and likely timing, which have real value in an operational setting. The local models assessed can be of any type and span rainfall-runoff (conceptual and transfer function) and flow routing (hydrological and hydrodynamic) forms. Also accommodated by the framework is the national G2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed hydrological model, providing area-wide coverage across the fluvial rivers of England and Wales, which can be assessed at gauged sites. Thus the performance of the national G2G model forecasts can be directly compared with that from the local models. The Performance Summary for each site model is complemented by a national spatial analysis of model performance stratified by model-type, geographical region and forecast lead-time. The map displays provide an extensive evidence-base that can be interrogated, through a Flood Forecasting Model Performance web portal, to reveal fresh insights into comparative performance across locations, lead-times and models. This work was commissioned by the Environment Agency in partnership with Natural Resources Wales and the Flood Forecasting Centre for England and Wales.

  20. Integrating Household Risk Mitigation Behavior in Flood Risk Analysis: An Agent-Based Model Approach.

    PubMed

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, W J Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2017-10-01

    Recent studies showed that climate change and socioeconomic trends are expected to increase flood risks in many regions. However, in these studies, human behavior is commonly assumed to be constant, which neglects interaction and feedback loops between human and environmental systems. This neglect of human adaptation leads to a misrepresentation of flood risk. This article presents an agent-based model that incorporates human decision making in flood risk analysis. In particular, household investments in loss-reducing measures are examined under three economic decision models: (1) expected utility theory, which is the traditional economic model of rational agents; (2) prospect theory, which takes account of bounded rationality; and (3) a prospect theory model, which accounts for changing risk perceptions and social interactions through a process of Bayesian updating. We show that neglecting human behavior in flood risk assessment studies can result in a considerable misestimation of future flood risk, which is in our case study an overestimation of a factor two. Furthermore, we show how behavior models can support flood risk analysis under different behavioral assumptions, illustrating the need to include the dynamic adaptive human behavior of, for instance, households, insurers, and governments. The method presented here provides a solid basis for exploring human behavior and the resulting flood risk with respect to low-probability/high-impact risks. © 2016 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Water resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simons, D. B.

    1975-01-01

    Applications of remote sensing technology to analysis of watersheds, snow cover, snowmelt, water runoff, soil moisture, land use, playa lakes, flooding, and water quality are summarized. Recommendations are given for further utilization of this technology.

  2. The framework of a UAS-aided flash flood modeling system for coastal regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, H.; Xu, H.

    2016-02-01

    Flash floods cause severe economic damage and are one of the leading causes of fatalities connected with natural disasters in the Gulf Coast region. Current flash flood modeling systems rely on empirical hydrological models driven by precipitation estimates only. Although precipitation is the driving factor for flash floods, soil moisture, urban drainage system and impervious surface have been recognized to have significant impacts on the development of flash floods. We propose a new flash flooding modeling system that integrates 3-D hydrological simulation with satellite and multi-UAS observations. It will have three advantages over existing modeling systems. First, it will incorporate 1-km soil moisture data through integrating satellite images from European SMOS mission and NASA's SMAP mission. The utilization of high-resolution satellite images will provide essential information to determine antecedent soil moisture condition, which is an essential control on flood generation. Second, this system is able to adjust flood forecasting based on real-time inundation information collected by multi-UAS. A group of UAS will be deployed during storm events to capture the changing extent of flooded areas and water depth at multiple critical locations simultaneously. Such information will be transmitted to a hydrological model to validate and improve flood simulation. Third, the backbone of this system is a state-of-the-art 3-D hydrological model that assimilates the hydrological information from satellites and multi-UAS. The model is able to address surface water-groundwater interactions and reflect the effects of various infrastructures. Using Web-GIS technologies, the modeling results will be available online as interactive flood maps accessible to the public. To support the development and verification of this modeling system, surface and subsurface hydrological observations will be conducted in a number of small watersheds in the Coastal Bend region. We envision this system will provide an innovative means to benefit the forecasting, evaluation and mitigation of flash floods in costal regions.

  3. Assessing the environmental justice consequences of flood risk: a case study in Miami, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montgomery, Marilyn C.; Chakraborty, Jayajit

    2015-09-01

    Recent environmental justice (EJ) research has emphasized the need to analyze social inequities in the distribution of natural hazards such as hurricanes and floods, and examine intra-ethnic diversity in patterns of EJ. This study contributes to the emerging EJ scholarship on exposure to flooding and ethnic heterogeneity by analyzing the racial/ethnic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population residing within coastal and inland flood risk zones in the Miami Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), Florida—one of the most ethnically diverse MSAs in the U.S. and one of the most hurricane-prone areas in the world. We examine coastal and inland flood zones separately because of differences in amenities such as water views and beach access. Instead of treating the Hispanic population as a homogenous group, we disaggregate the Hispanic category into relevant country-of-origin subgroups. Inequities in flood risk exposure are statistically analyzed using socio-demographic variables derived from the 2010 U.S. Census and 2007-2011 American Community Survey estimates, and 100-year flood risk zones from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Social vulnerability is represented with two neighborhood deprivation indices called economic insecurity and instability. We also analyze the presence of seasonal/vacation homes and proximity to public beach access sites as water-related amenity variables. Logistic regression modeling is utilized to estimate the odds of neighborhood-level exposure to coastal and inland 100-year flood risks. Results indicate that neighborhoods with greater percentages of non-Hispanic Blacks, Hispanics, and Hispanic subgroups of Colombians and Puerto Ricans are exposed to inland flood risks in areas without water-related amenities, while Mexicans are inequitably exposed to coastal flood risks. Our findings demonstrate the importance of treating coastal and inland flood risks separately while controlling for water-related amenities, and recognizing intra-ethnic diversity within the Hispanic category to obtain a more comprehensive assessment of the social distribution of flood risks.

  4. Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapales, Ben Joseph; Mendoza, Jerico; Uichanco, Christopher; Mahar Francisco Amante Lagmay, Alfredo; Moises, Mark Anthony; Delmendo, Patricia; Eneri Tingin, Neil

    2015-04-01

    Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of people in areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more efficient exchange of information, allowing for flood simulations to be utilized in local flood disaster management programs. The success of these systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the people involved. As environmental changes create more significant impacts, the need to adapt to these is vital for man's safety. [1] Pacific Disaster Center

  5. Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapales, B. J. M.; Mendoza, J.; Uichanco, C.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.; Moises, M. A.; Delmendo, P.; Tingin, N. E.

    2014-12-01

    Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more efficient exchange of information, allowing for flood simulations to be utilized in local flood disaster management programs. The success of these systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the people involved. As environmental changes create more significant impacts, the need to adapt to these is vital for man's safety. [1] Pacific Disaster Center

  6. Interconnected ponds operation for flood hazard distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Putra, S. S.; Ridwan, B. W.

    2016-05-01

    The climatic anomaly, which comes with extreme rainfall, will increase the flood hazard in an area within a short period of time. The river capacity in discharging the flood is not continuous along the river stretch and sensitive to the flood peak. This paper contains the alternatives on how to locate the flood retention pond that are physically feasible to reduce the flood peak. The flood ponds were designed based on flood curve number criteria (TR-55, USDA) with the aim of rapid flood peak capturing and gradual flood retuning back to the river. As a case study, the hydrologic condition of upper Ciliwung river basin with several presumed flood pond locations was conceptually designed. A fundamental tank model that reproducing the operation of interconnected ponds was elaborated to achieve the designed flood discharge that will flows to the downstream area. The flood hazard distribution status, as the model performance criteria, will be computed within Ciliwung river reach in Manggarai Sluice Gate spot. The predicted hazard reduction with the operation of the interconnected retention area result had been bench marked with the normal flow condition.

  7. Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for El-Awali River Catchment-Lebanon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Hijazi, Samar

    2016-04-01

    River flooding prediction and flood forecasting has become an essential stage in the major flood mitigation plans worldwide. Delineation of floodplains resulting from a river flooding event requires coupling between a Hydrological rainfall-runoff model to calculate the resulting outflows of the catchment and a hydraulic model to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along the river main course. In this study several methods were applied to predict the flood discharge of El-Awali River using the available historical data and gauging records and by conducting several site visits. The HEC-HMS Rainfall-Runoff model was built and applied to calculate the flood hydrographs along several outlets on El-Awali River and calibrated using the storm that took place on January 2013 and caused flooding of the major Lebanese rivers and by conducting additional site visits to calculate proper river sections and record witnesses of the locals. The Hydraulic HEC-RAS model was then applied to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along El-Awali River main reach. Floodplain delineation and Hazard mapping for 10,50 and 100 years return periods was performed using the Watershed Modeling System WMS. The results first show an underestimation of the flood discharge recorded by the operating gauge stations on El-Awali River, whereas, the discharge of the 100 years flood may reach up to 506 m3/s compared by lower values calculated using the traditional discharge estimation methods. Second any flooding of El-Awali River may be catastrophic especially to the coastal part of the catchment and can cause tragic losses in agricultural lands and properties. Last a major floodplain was noticed in Marj Bisri village this floodplain can reach more than 200 meters in width. Overall, performance was good and the Rainfall-Runoff model can provide valuable information about flows especially on ungauged points and can perform a great aid for the floodplain delineation and flood prediction methods in poorly gauged basins, but further model updates and calibration is always required to compensate the weaknesses in such model and attain better results.

  8. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

    2013-05-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate, which can be used for strategic global flood risk assessments. The framework estimates hazard at a resolution of ~ 1 km2 using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood-routing model, and more importantly, an inundation downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database. This was done by comparing a high return period flood with the maximum observed extent, as well as by comparing a time series of a single event with Dartmouth imagery of the event. Validation of modelled damage estimates was performed using observed damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

  9. An open source, 3D printed preclinical MRI phantom for repeated measures of contrast agents and reference standards.

    PubMed

    Cox, B L; Ludwig, K D; Adamson, E B; Eliceiri, K W; Fain, S B

    2018-03-01

    In medical imaging, clinicians, researchers and technicians have begun to use 3D printing to create specialized phantoms to replace commercial ones due to their customizable and iterative nature. Presented here is the design of a 3D printed open source, reusable magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) phantom, capable of flood-filling, with removable samples for measurements of contrast agent solutions and reference standards, and for use in evaluating acquisition techniques and image reconstruction performance. The phantom was designed using SolidWorks, a computer-aided design software package. The phantom consists of custom and off-the-shelf parts and incorporates an air hole and Luer Lock system to aid in flood filling, a marker for orientation of samples in the filled mode and bolt and tube holes for assembly. The cost of construction for all materials is under $90. All design files are open-source and available for download. To demonstrate utility, B 0 field mapping was performed using a series of gadolinium concentrations in both the unfilled and flood-filled mode. An excellent linear agreement (R 2 >0.998) was observed between measured relaxation rates (R 1 /R 2 ) and gadolinium concentration. The phantom provides a reliable setup to test data acquisition and reconstruction methods and verify physical alignment in alternative nuclei MRI techniques (e.g. carbon-13 and fluorine-19 MRI). A cost-effective, open-source MRI phantom design for repeated quantitative measurement of contrast agents and reference standards in preclinical research is presented. Specifically, the work is an example of how the emerging technology of 3D printing improves flexibility and access for custom phantom design.

  10. Developing an Approach to Prioritize River Restoration using Data Extracted from Flood Risk Information System Databases.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vimal, S.; Tarboton, D. G.; Band, L. E.; Duncan, J. M.; Lovette, J. P.; Corzo, G.; Miles, B.

    2015-12-01

    Prioritizing river restoration requires information on river geometry. In many states in the US detailed river geometry has been collected for floodplain mapping and is available in Flood Risk Information Systems (FRIS). In particular, North Carolina has, for its 100 Counties, developed a database of numerous HEC-RAS models which are available through its Flood Risk Information System (FRIS). These models that include over 260 variables were developed and updated by numerous contractors. They contain detailed surveyed or LiDAR derived cross-sections and modeled flood extents for different extreme event return periods. In this work, over 4700 HEC-RAS models' data was integrated and upscaled to utilize detailed cross-section information and 100-year modelled flood extent information to enable river restoration prioritization for the entire state of North Carolina. We developed procedures to extract geomorphic properties such as entrenchment ratio, incision ratio, etc. from these models. Entrenchment ratio quantifies the vertical containment of rivers and thereby their vulnerability to flooding and incision ratio quantifies the depth per unit width. A map of entrenchment ratio for the whole state was derived by linking these model results to a geodatabase. A ranking of highly entrenched counties enabling prioritization for flood allowance and mitigation was obtained. The results were shared through HydroShare and web maps developed for their visualization using Google Maps Engine API.

  11. Flood Monitoring and Early Warning System Using Ultrasonic Sensor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Natividad, J. G.; Mendez, J. M.

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a real-time flood monitoring and early warning system in the northern portion of the province of Isabela, particularly the municipalities near Cagayan River. Ultrasonic sensing techniques have become mature and are widely used in the various fields of engineering and basic science. One of advantage of ultrasonic sensing is its outstanding capability to probe inside objective non-destructively because ultrasound can propagate through any kinds of media including solids, liquids and gases. This study focuses only on the water level detection and early warning system (via website and/or SMS) that alerts concern agencies and individuals for a potential flood event. Furthermore, inquiry system is also included in this study to become more interactive wherein individuals in the community could inquire the actual water level and status of the desired area or location affected by flood thru SMS keyword. The study aims in helping citizens to be prepared and knowledgeable whenever there is a flood. The novelty of this work falls under the utilization of the Arduino, ultrasonic sensors, GSM module, web-monitoring and SMS early warning system in helping stakeholders to mitigate casualties related to flood. The paper envisions helping flood-prone areas which are common in the Philippines particularly to the local communities in the province. Indeed, it is relevant and important as per needs for safety and welfare of the community.

  12. Climate Adaptation and Storms & Flooding

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA works with drinking water, wastewater and stormwater utilities, as well as local, state and tribal governments to help critical water infrastructure facilities prepare for and recover from the impacts of climate change.

  13. A fluvial and pluvial probabilistic flood hazard analysis for Can Tho city, Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apel, Heiko; Martinez, Oriol; Thi Chinh, Do; Viet Dung, Nguyen

    2014-05-01

    Can Tho city is the largest city and the economic heart of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Due to its economic importance and envisaged development goals the city grew rapidly in population size and extend over the last two decades. Large parts of the city are located in flood prone areas, and also the central parts of the city recently experienced an increasing number of flood events, both of fluvial and pluvial nature. As the economic power and asset values are constantly increasing, this poses a considerable risk for the city. The the aim of this study is to perform a flood hazard analysis considering both fluvial and pluvial floods and to derive probabilistic flood hazard maps. This requires in a first step an understanding of the typical flood mechanisms. Fluvial floods are triggered by a coincidence of high water levels during the annual flood period in the Mekong Delta with high tidal levels, which cause in combination short term inundations in Can Tho. Pluvial floods are triggered by typical tropical convective rain storms during the monsoon season. These two flood pathways are essentially independent in its sources and can thus be treated in the hazard analysis accordingly. For the fluvial hazard analysis we propose a bivariate frequency analysis of the Mekong flood characteristics, the annual maximum flood discharge Q and the annual flood volume V at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta, the gauging station Kratie. This defines probabilities of exceedance of different Q-V pairs, which are transferred into synthetic flood hydrographs. The synthetic hydrographs are routed through a quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of the entire Mekong Delta in order to provide boundary conditions for a detailed hazard mapping of Can Tho. This downscaling step is necessary, because the huge complexity of the river and channel network does not allow for a proper definition of boundary conditions for Can Tho city by gauge data alone. In addition the available gauge data around Can Tho are too short for a meaningful frequency analysis. The detailed hazard mapping is performed by a 2D hydrodynamic model for Can Tho city. As the scenarios are derived in a Monte-Carlo framework, the final flood hazard maps are probabilistic, i.e. show the median flood hazard along with uncertainty estimates for each defined level of probabilities of exceedance. For the pluvial flood hazard a frequency analysis of the hourly rain gauge data of Can Tho is performed implementing a peak-over-threshold procedure. Based on this frequency analysis synthetic rains storms are generated in a Monte-Carlo framework for the same probabilities of exceedance as in the fluvial flood hazard analysis. Probabilistic flood hazard maps were then generated with the same 2D hydrodynamic model for the city. In a last step the fluvial and pluvial scenarios are combined assuming independence of the events. These scenarios were also transferred into hazard maps by the 2D hydrodynamic model finally yielding combined fluvial-pluvial probabilistic flood hazard maps for Can Tho. The derived set of maps may be used for an improved city planning or a flood risk analysis.

  14. Improvement of Carbon Dioxide Sweep Efficiency by Utilization of Microbial Permeability Profile Modification to Reduce the Amount of Oil Bypassed During Carbon Dioxide Flood

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Schmitz, Darrel; Brown, Lewis; Lynch, F. Leo

    2010-12-31

    The objective of this project was to couple microbial permeability profile modification (MPPM), with carbon dioxide flooding to improve oil recovery from the Upper Cretaceous Little Creek Oil Field situated in Lincoln and Pike counties, MS. This study determined that MPPM technology, which improves production by utilizing environmentally friendly nutrient solutions to simulate the growth of the indigenous microflora in the most permeable zones of the reservoir thus diverting production to less permeable, previously unswept zones, increased oil production without interfering with the carbon dioxide flooding operation. Laboratory tests determined that no microorganisms were produced in formation waters, but weremore » present in cores. Perhaps the single most significant contribution of this study is the demonstration that microorganisms are active at a formation temperature of 115°C (239°F) by using a specially designed culturing device. Laboratory tests were employed to simulate the MPPM process by demonstrating that microorganisms could be activated with the resulting production of oil in coreflood tests performed in the presence of carbon dioxide at 66°C (the highest temperature that could be employed in the coreflood facility). Geological assessment determined significant heterogeneity in the Eutaw Formation, and documented relatively thin, variably-lithified, well-laminated sandstone interbedded with heavily-bioturbated, clay-rich sandstone and shale. Live core samples of the Upper Cretaceous Eutaw Formation from the Heidelberg Field, MS were quantitatively assessed using SEM, and showed that during MPPM permeability modification occurs ubiquitously within pore and throat spaces of 10-20 μm diameter. Testing of the MPPM procedure in the Little Creek Field showed a significant increase in production occurred in two of the five production test wells; furthermore, the decline curve in each of the production wells became noticeably less steep. This project greatly extends the number of oil fields in which MPPM can be implemented.« less

  15. Statistical and Hydrological evaluation of precipitation forecasts from IMD MME and ECMWF numerical weather forecasts for Indian River basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohite, A. R.; Beria, H.; Behera, A. K.; Chatterjee, C.; Singh, R.

    2016-12-01

    Flood forecasting using hydrological models is an important and cost-effective non-structural flood management measure. For forecasting at short lead times, empirical models using real-time precipitation estimates have proven to be reliable. However, their skill depreciates with increasing lead time. Coupling a hydrologic model with real-time rainfall forecasts issued from numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems could increase the lead time substantially. In this study, we compared 1-5 days precipitation forecasts from India Meteorological Department (IMD) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) with European Center for Medium Weather forecast (ECMWF) NWP forecasts for over 86 major river basins in India. We then evaluated the hydrologic utility of these forecasts over Basantpur catchment (approx. 59,000 km2) of the Mahanadi River basin. Coupled MIKE 11 RR (NAM) and MIKE 11 hydrodynamic (HD) models were used for the development of flood forecast system (FFS). RR model was calibrated using IMD station rainfall data. Cross-sections extracted from SRTM 30 were used as input to the MIKE 11 HD model. IMD started issuing operational MME forecasts from the year 2008, and hence, both the statistical and hydrologic evaluation were carried out from 2008-2014. The performance of FFS was evaluated using both the NWP datasets separately for the year 2011, which was a large flood year in Mahanadi River basin. We will present figures and metrics for statistical (threshold based statistics, skill in terms of correlation and bias) and hydrologic (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, mean and peak error statistics) evaluation. The statistical evaluation will be at pan-India scale for all the major river basins and the hydrologic evaluation will be for the Basantpur catchment of the Mahanadi River basin.

  16. The utility of satellite precipitation products for hydrologic prediction in topographically complex regions: The Chehalis River Basin, WA as a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Q.; Mehran, A.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Mass, C.; Johnson, N.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate measurements of precipitation are of great importance in hydrologic predictions especially for floods, which are a pervasive natural hazard. One of the primary objectives of Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is to provide a basis for hydrologic predictions using satellite sensors. A major advance in GPM relative to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is that it observes atmospheric river (AR) events, most of which have landfall too far north to be tracked by TRMM. These events are responsible for most major floods along the U.S. West Coast. We address the question of whether, for hydrologic modeling purposes, it is better to use precipitation products derived directly from GPM and/or other precipitation fields from weather models that have assimilated satellite data. Our overall strategy is to compare different methods for prediction of flood and/or high flow events by different forcings on the hydrologic model. We examine four different configurations of the Distroibute Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) over the Chehalis River Basin that use a) precipitation forcings based on gridded station data; b) precipitation forcings based on NWS WSR-88D data, c) forcings based from short-term precipitation forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model, and d) satellite-based precipitation estimates (TMPA and IMERG). We find that in general, biases in the radar and satellite products result in much larger errors than with either gridded station data or WRF forcings, but if these biases are removed, comparable performance in flood predictions can be achieved by Satellite-based precipitation estimates (TMPA and IMERG).

  17. The Evaluation of Foam Performance and Flooding Efficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keliang, Wang; Yuhao, Chen; Gang, Wang; Gen, Li

    2017-12-01

    ROSS-Miles and spinning drop interfacial tensionmeter are used to select suitable foam system through foam composite index (FCI) and interfacial tension (IT). The selected foam system are taken to conduct further test. The further tests are evaluating the foam system resistance to adsorption with multi-round core flooding dynamic adsorption test and evaluating the performance of foam system with four kinds of different transport distance, quantitatively analyzing the foam system effective distance after dynamic adsorption. The result shows that the foaming ability and the mobilizing ability of the foam system decrease with the increase of the round of dynamic adsorption. As the transport distance increases, the foaming ability and the mobilizing ability of the foam system decrease. This result further reveals the flooding characteristics of nitrogen foam flooding, which provides a reference for the implementation of nitrogen foam flooding technology.

  18. Management of Large-Scale Wireless Sensor Networks Utilizing Multi-Parent Recursive Area Hierarchies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cree, Johnathan V.; Delgado-Frias, Jose

    2013-04-19

    Autonomously configuring and self-healing a largescale wireless sensor network requires a light-weight maintenance protocol that is scalable. Further, in a battery powered wireless sensor network duty-cycling a node’s radio can reduce the power consumption of a device and extend the lifetime of a network. With duty-cycled nodes the power consumption of a node’s radio depends on the amount of communication is must perform and by reducing the communication the power consumption can also be reduced. Multi-parent hierarchies can be used to reduce the communication cost when constructing a recursive area clustering hierarchy when compared to singleparent solutions that utilize inefficientmore » communication methods such as flooding and information propagation via single-hop broadcasts. The multi-parent hierarchies remain scalable and provides a level of redundancy for the hierarchy.« less

  19. Estimating flood risk along the coasts of United States considering compounding effects of multiple flood drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moftakhari Rostamkhani, H.; Salvadori, G.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Matthew, R.

    2016-12-01

    NASA launched the CYGNSS mission 15 December 2016 which comprises a constellation of eight satellites flying in a low inclination (tropical) Earth orbit. Each satellite measures up to four independent GPS signals scattered by the ocean, to obtain surface roughness, near surface wind speed, and air-sea latent heat flux. Utilizing such a large number of satellites, these measurements which are uniquely able to penetrate clouds and heavy precipitation, allows CYGNSS to frequently sample tropical cyclone intensification and of the diurnal cycle of winds. Additionally, data retrievals over land have proven effective to map surface water and soil moisture. Engineering commissioning of the constellation was successfully completed in March 2017 and the mission is now conducting science measurements. An overview of the CYGNSS system, mission and measurement concept will be presented, together with highlights of early on-orbit performance. Scientific results obtained during the 2017 hurricane season and featured at the NASA CYGNSS Applications Workshop in Monterey, CA 31 October - 2 November 2, 2017 will also be presented.

  20. Application of fluorinated nanofluid for production enhancement of a carbonate gas-condensate reservoir through wettability alteration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakhaei, Zahra; Azin, Reza; Naghizadeh, Arefeh; Osfouri, Shahriar; Saboori, Rahmatollah; Vahdani, Hosein

    2018-03-01

    Condensate blockage phenomenon in near-wellbore region decreases gas production rate remarkably. Wettability alteration using fluorinated chemicals is an efficacious way to vanquish this problem. In this study, new synthesized fluorinated silica nanoparticles with an optimized condition and mean diameter of 50 nm is employed to modify carbonate rock surface wettability. Rock characterization tests consisting Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FE-SEM) and Energy Dispersive x-ray Spectroscopy (EDX) were utilized to assess the nanofluid adsorption on rock surface after treatment. Contact angle, spontaneous imbibition and core flooding experiments were performed to investigate the effect of synthesized nanofluid adsorption on wettability of rock surface and liquid mobility. Results of contact angle experiments revealed that wettability of rock could alter from strongly oil-wetting to the intermediate gas-wetting even at elevated temperature. Imbibition rates of oil and brine were diminished noticeably after treatment. 60% and 30% enhancement in pressure drop of condensate and brine floods after wettability alteration with modified nanofluid were observed which confirm successful field applicability of this chemical.

  1. Unstructured mesh adaptivity for urban flooding modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, R.; Fang, F.; Salinas, P.; Pain, C. C.

    2018-05-01

    Over the past few decades, urban floods have been gaining more attention due to their increase in frequency. To provide reliable flooding predictions in urban areas, various numerical models have been developed to perform high-resolution flood simulations. However, the use of high-resolution meshes across the whole computational domain causes a high computational burden. In this paper, a 2D control-volume and finite-element flood model using adaptive unstructured mesh technology has been developed. This adaptive unstructured mesh technique enables meshes to be adapted optimally in time and space in response to the evolving flow features, thus providing sufficient mesh resolution where and when it is required. It has the advantage of capturing the details of local flows and wetting and drying front while reducing the computational cost. Complex topographic features are represented accurately during the flooding process. For example, the high-resolution meshes around the buildings and steep regions are placed when the flooding water reaches these regions. In this work a flooding event that happened in 2002 in Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom has been simulated to demonstrate the capability of the adaptive unstructured mesh flooding model. The simulations have been performed using both fixed and adaptive unstructured meshes, and then results have been compared with those published 2D and 3D results. The presented method shows that the 2D adaptive mesh model provides accurate results while having a low computational cost.

  2. Introduction to SNPP/VIIRS Flood Mapping Software Version 1.0

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, S.; Sun, D.; Goldberg, M.; Sjoberg, W.; Santek, D.; Hoffman, J.

    2017-12-01

    Near real-time satellite-derived flood maps are invaluable to river forecasters and decision-makers for disaster monitoring and relief efforts. With support from the JPSS (Joint Polar Satellite System) Proving Ground and Risk Reduction (PGRR) Program, flood detection software has been developed using Suomi-NPP/VIIRS (Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership/Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) imagery to automatically generate near real-time flood maps for National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFC) in the USA. The software, which is called VIIRS NOAA GMU Flood Version 1.0 (hereafter referred to as VNG Flood V1.0), consists of a series of algorithms that include water detection, cloud shadow removal, terrain shadow removal, minor flood detection, water fraction retrieval, and floodwater determination. The software is designed for flood detection in any land region between 80°S and 80°N, and it has been running routinely with direct broadcast SNPP/VIIRS data at the Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW/SSEC) and the Geographic Information Network of Alaska at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks (UAF/GINA) since 2014. Near real-time flood maps are distributed via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM), reviewed by river forecasters in AWIPS-II (the second generation of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System) and applied in flood operations. Initial feedback from operational forecasters on the product accuracy and performance has been largely positive. The software capability has also been extended to areas outside of the USA via a case-driven mode to detect major floods all over the world. Offline validation efforts include the visual inspection of over 10,000 VIIRS false-color composite images, an inter-comparison with MODIS automatic flood products and a quantitative evaluation using Landsat imagery. The steady performance from the 3-year routine process and the promising validation results indicate that VNG Flood V1.0 has a high feasibility for flood detection at the product level.

  3. On the suitability of the copula types for the joint modelling of flood peaks and volumes along the Danube River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kohnová, Silvia; Papaioannou, George; Bacigál, Tomáš; Szolgay, Ján; Hlavčová, Kamila; Loukas, Athanasios; Výleta, Roman

    2017-04-01

    Flood frequency analysis is often performed as a univariate analysis of flood peaks using a suitable theoretical probability distribution of the annual maximum flood peaks or peak over threshold values. However, also other flood attributes, such as flood volume and duration, are often necessary for the design of hydrotechnical structures and projects. In this study, the suitability of various copula families for a bivariate analysis of peak discharges and flood volumes has been tested on the streamflow data from gauging stations along the whole Danube River. Kendall's rank correlation coefficient (tau) quantifies the dependence between flood peak discharge and flood volume settings. The methodology is tested on two different data samples: 1) annual maximum flood (AMF) peaks with corresponding flood volumes, which is a typical choice for engineering studies and 2). annual maximum flood (AMF) peaks combined with annual maximum flow volumes of fixed durations at 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 and 60 days, which can be regarded as a regime analysis of the dependence between the extremes of both variables in a given year. The bivariate modelling of the peak discharge - flood volume couples is achieved with the use of the the following copulas: Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Clayton, Frank, Joe, Gumbel, HuslerReiss, Galambos, Tawn, Normal, Plackett and FGM, respectively. Scatterplots of the observed and simulated peak discharge - flood volume pairs and goodness-of-fit tests have been used to assess the overall applicability of the copulas as well as observing any changes in suitable models along the Danube River. The results indicate that, almost all of the considered Archimedean class copulas (e.g. Frank, Clayton and Ali-Mikhail-Haq) perform better than the other copula families selected for this study, and that for the second data samples mostly the upper-tail-flat copulas were suitable.

  4. Impact of Reservoir Operation to the Inflow Flood - a Case Study of Xinfengjiang Reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, L.

    2017-12-01

    Building of reservoir shall impact the runoff production and routing characteristics, and changes the flood formation. This impact, called as reservoir flood effect, could be divided into three parts, including routing effect, volume effect and peak flow effect, and must be evaluated in a whole by using hydrological model. After analyzing the reservoir flood formation, the Liuxihe Model for reservoir flood forecasting is proposed. The Xinfengjiang Reservoir is studied as a case. Results show that the routing effect makes peak flow appear 4 to 6 hours in advance, volume effect is bigger for large flood than small one, and when rainfall focus on the reservoir area, this effect also increases peak flow largely, peak flow effect makes peak flow increase 6.63% to 8.95%. Reservoir flood effect is obvious, which have significant impact to reservoir flood. If this effect is not considered in the flood forecasting model, the flood could not be forecasted accurately, particularly the peak flow. Liuxihe Model proposed for Xinfengjiang Reservoir flood forecasting has a good performance, and could be used for real-time flood forecasting of Xinfengjiang Reservoir.Key words: Reservoir flood effect, reservoir flood forecasting, physically based distributed hydrological model, Liuxihe Model, parameter optimization

  5. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  6. A high‐resolution global flood hazard model†

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul D.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data‐scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross‐disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ∼90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high‐resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ∼1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ∼5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2‐D only variant and an independently developed pan‐European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next‐generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step‐change improvement in model performance. PMID:27594719

  7. How can we deal with ANN in flood forecasting? As a simulation model or updating kernel!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassan Saddagh, Mohammad; Javad Abedini, Mohammad

    2010-05-01

    Flood forecasting and early warning, as a non-structural measure for flood control, is often considered to be the most effective and suitable alternative to mitigate the damage and human loss caused by flood. Forecast results which are output of hydrologic, hydraulic and/or black box models should secure accuracy of flood values and timing, especially for long lead time. The application of the artificial neural network (ANN) in flood forecasting has received extensive attentions in recent years due to its capability to capture the dynamics inherent in complex processes including flood. However, results obtained from executing plain ANN as simulation model demonstrate dramatic reduction in performance indices as lead time increases. This paper is intended to monitor the performance indices as it relates to flood forecasting and early warning using two different methodologies. While the first method employs a multilayer neural network trained using back-propagation scheme to forecast output hydrograph of a hypothetical river for various forecast lead time up to 6.0 hr, the second method uses 1D hydrodynamic MIKE11 model as forecasting model and multilayer neural network as updating kernel to monitor and assess the performance indices compared to ANN alone in light of increase in lead time. Results presented in both graphical and tabular format indicate superiority of MIKE11 coupled with ANN as updating kernel compared to ANN as simulation model alone. While plain ANN produces more accurate results for short lead time, the errors increase expeditiously for longer lead time. The second methodology provides more accurate and reliable results for longer forecast lead time.

  8. Integrated water resources management using engineering measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Y.

    2015-04-01

    The management process of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) consists of aspects of policies/strategies, measures (engineering measures and non-engineering measures) and organizational management structures, etc., among which engineering measures such as reservoirs, dikes, canals, etc., play the backbone that enables IWRM through redistribution and reallocation of water in time and space. Engineering measures are usually adopted for different objectives of water utilization and water disaster prevention, such as flood control and drought relief. The paper discusses the planning and implementation of engineering measures in IWRM of the Changjiang River, China. Planning and implementation practices of engineering measures for flood control and water utilization, etc., are presented. Operation practices of the Three Gorges Reservoir, particularly the development and application of regulation rules for flood management, power generation, water supply, ecosystem needs and sediment issues (e.g. erosion and siltation), are also presented. The experience obtained in the implementation of engineering measures in Changjiang River show that engineering measures are vital for IWRM. However, efforts should be made to deal with changes of the river system affected by the operation of engineering measures, in addition to escalatory development of new demands associated with socio-economic development.

  9. 44 CFR 65.6 - Revision of base flood elevation determinations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program... new discharge estimates. (6) Any computer program used to perform hydrologic or hydraulic analyses in... control and/or the regulation of flood plain lands. For computer programs adopted by non-Federal agencies...

  10. 44 CFR 65.6 - Revision of base flood elevation determinations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program... new discharge estimates. (6) Any computer program used to perform hydrologic or hydraulic analyses in... control and/or the regulation of flood plain lands. For computer programs adopted by non-Federal agencies...

  11. 44 CFR 65.6 - Revision of base flood elevation determinations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program... new discharge estimates. (6) Any computer program used to perform hydrologic or hydraulic analyses in... control and/or the regulation of flood plain lands. For computer programs adopted by non-Federal agencies...

  12. 44 CFR 65.6 - Revision of base flood elevation determinations.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program... new discharge estimates. (6) Any computer program used to perform hydrologic or hydraulic analyses in... control and/or the regulation of flood plain lands. For computer programs adopted by non-Federal agencies...

  13. Bacterial community structure and dissolved organic matter in repeatedly flooded subsurface karst water pools.

    PubMed

    Shabarova, Tanja; Villiger, Jörg; Morenkov, Oleg; Niggemann, Jutta; Dittmar, Thorsten; Pernthaler, Jakob

    2014-07-01

    Bacterial diversity, community assembly, and the composition of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) were studied in three temporary subsurface karst pools with different flooding regimes. We tested the hypothesis that microorganisms introduced to the pools during floods faced environmental filtering toward a 'typical' karst water community, and we investigated whether DOM composition was related to floodings and the residence time of water in stagnant pools. As predicted, longer water residence consistently led to a decline of bacterial diversity. The microbial assemblages in the influx water harbored more 'exotic' lineages with large distances to known genotypes, yet these initial communities already appeared to be shaped by selective processes. β-Proteobacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs) closely related to microbes from subsurface or surface aquatic environments were mainly responsible for the clustering of samples according to water residence time in the pools. By contrast, several Cytophagaceae and Flavobacteriaceae OTUs were related to different floodings, which were also the main determinants of DOM composition. A subset of compounds distinguishable by molecular mass and O/C content were characteristic for individual floods. Moreover, there was a transformation of DOM in stagnant pools toward smaller and more aromatic compounds, potentially also reflecting microbial utilization. © 2014 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. WRF model for precipitation simulation and its application in real-time flood forecasting in the Jinshajiang River Basin, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Jianzhong; Zhang, Hairong; Zhang, Jianyun; Zeng, Xiaofan; Ye, Lei; Liu, Yi; Tayyab, Muhammad; Chen, Yufan

    2017-07-01

    An accurate flood forecasting with long lead time can be of great value for flood prevention and utilization. This paper develops a one-way coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system consisting of the mesoscale numerical weather model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Chinese Xinanjiang hydrological model to extend flood forecasting lead time in the Jinshajiang River Basin, which is the largest hydropower base in China. Focusing on four typical precipitation events includes: first, the combinations and mode structures of parameterization schemes of WRF suitable for simulating precipitation in the Jinshajiang River Basin were investigated. Then, the Xinanjiang model was established after calibration and validation to make up the hydro-meteorological system. It was found that the selection of the cloud microphysics scheme and boundary layer scheme has a great impact on precipitation simulation, and only a proper combination of the two schemes could yield accurate simulation effects in the Jinshajiang River Basin and the hydro-meteorological system can provide instructive flood forecasts with long lead time. On the whole, the one-way coupled hydro-meteorological model could be used for precipitation simulation and flood prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin because of its relatively high precision and long lead time.

  15. Propagation of Flood and Drought from Atmosphere down to Groundwater Based on 1983-2013 Direct Observations in Illinois

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, W.; Chen, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is expected to significantly alter and intensify the global hydrologic cycle, with the severe consequence of more frequent occurrence of floods and droughts. In this study, we utilize a long-term 1983-2013 hydro-climatic dataset in Illinois collected from multiple sources to characterize historical occurrence of anomalously large floods and drought events. This unique 31-year dataset covering daily and monthly variables of temperature, humidity, radiation, potential evapotranspiration, atmospheric vapor convergence, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater depth and river flow. The analysis is based on the perspective of combined land-atmospheric interactions to understand the mechanisms of flood and drought occurrence due to anomalous precipitation and temperature conditions, and how they propagate through the entire hydrologic cycle from atmospheric water vapor to soil moisture, groundwater and river flow. The sensitivity of hydroclimatic anomalies propagation to climate factors (precipitation, temperature, radiation and humidity) are examined as exemplified from the historically water extremes such as the Mississippi floods in 1993 and 2008 and the Midwest droughts in 1988, 2005 and 2012. The findings from this study bears significant implications in understanding hydrologic response to warming climate, in particular the consensus of projected increasing occurrence of future floods and droughts.

  16. Flooding Risk for Coastal Infrastructure: a Stakeholder-Oriented Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plater, A. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Knight, P. J.; Morrissey, K.

    2015-12-01

    A flood risk assessment for coastal energy infrastructure in the UK with respect to long-term sea-level rise and extreme water levels has been conducted using a combination of numerical modelling approaches (LISFLOOD-FP, SWAB, XBeach-G, POLCOMS). Model outputs have been incorporated into a decision-support tool that enables users from a wide spectrum of coastal stakeholders (e.g. nuclear energy, utility providers, local government, environmental regulators, communities) to explore the potential impacts of flooding on both operational (events to 10 years) and strategic (10 to 50 years) timescales. Examples illustrate the physical and economic impacts of flooding from combined extreme water levels, wave overtopping and high river flow for Fleetwood, NW England; changes in the extent of likely flooding arising from an extreme event due to sea-level rise for Oldbury, SW England; and the relative vulnerability to overtopping and breaching of sea defences for Dungeness, SE England. The impacts of a potential large-scale beach recharge scheme to mitigate coastal erosion and flood risk along the southern shoreline of Dungeness are also examined using a combination of coastal evolution and particle-tracking modelling. The research goal is to provide an evidence base for resource allocation, investment in interventions, and communication and dialogue in relation to sea-level rise to 2500 AD.

  17. Flood risk governance arrangements in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matczak, P.; Lewandowski, J.; Choryński, A.; Szwed, M.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

    2015-06-01

    The STAR-FLOOD (Strengthening and Redesigning European Flood Risk Practices Towards Appropriate and Resilient Flood Risk Governance Arrangements) project, funded by the European Commission, investigates strategies for dealing with flood risk in six European countries: Belgium, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden and in 18 vulnerable urban regions in these countries. The project aims to describe, analyse, explain, and evaluate the main similarities and differences between the selected EU Member States in terms of development and performance of flood risk governance arrangements. It also discusses the scientific and societal importance of these similarities and differences. Attention is paid to identification and characterization of shifts in flood risk governance arrangements and in flood risk management strategies and to determination of triggering factors and restraining factors. An assessment of a change of resilience and appropriateness (legitimacy, effectiveness, efficiency) of flood risk governance arrangements in Poland is presented and comparison with other European countries is offered.

  18. Dissemination of satellite-based river discharge and flood data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kettner, A. J.; Brakenridge, G. R.; van Praag, E.; de Groeve, T.; Slayback, D. A.; Cohen, S.

    2014-12-01

    In collaboration with NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center and the European Commission Joint Research Centre, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) daily measures and distributes: 1) river discharges, and 2) near real-time flood extents with a global coverage. Satellite-based passive microwave sensors and hydrological modeling are utilized to establish 'remote-sensing based discharge stations', and observed time series cover 1998 to the present. The advantages over in-situ gauged discharges are: a) easy access to remote or due to political reasons isolated locations, b) relatively low maintenance costs to maintain a continuous observational record, and c) the capability to obtain measurements during floods, hazardous conditions that often impair or destroy in-situ stations. Two MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites provide global flood extent coverage at a spatial resolution of 250m. Cloud cover hampers flood extent detection; therefore we ingest 6 images (the Terra and Aqua images of each day, for three days), in combination with a cloud shadow filter, to provide daily global flood extent updates. The Flood Observatory has always made it a high priority to visualize and share its data and products through its website. Recent collaborative efforts with e.g. GeoSUR have enhanced accessibility of DFO data. A web map service has been implemented to automatically disseminate geo-referenced flood extent products into client-side GIS software. For example, for Latin America and the Caribbean region, the GeoSUR portal now displays current flood extent maps, which can be integrated and visualized with other relevant geographical data. Furthermore, the flood state of satellite-observed river discharge sites are displayed through the portal as well. Additional efforts include implementing Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards to incorporate Water Markup Language (WaterML) data exchange mechanisms to further facilitate the distribution of the satellite gauged river discharge time series.

  19. Modelling the interaction between flooding events and economic growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grames, Johanna; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Grass, Dieter; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-04-01

    Recently socio-hydrology models have been proposed to analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth. These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters such as floods. Complementary to these descriptive models, we develop a dynamic optimization model, where the inter-temporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. This interdisciplinary approach matches with the goals of Panta Rhei i.e. to understand feedbacks between hydrology and society. It enables new perspectives but also shows limitations of each discipline. Young scientists need mentors from various scientific backgrounds to learn their different research approaches and how to best combine them such that interdisciplinary scientific work is also accepted by different science communities. In our socio-hydrology model we apply a macro-economic decision framework to a long-term flood-scenario. We assume a standard macro-economic growth model where agents derive utility from consumption and output depends on physical capital that can be accumulated through investment. To this framework we add the occurrence of flooding events which will destroy part of the capital. We identify two specific periodic long term solutions and denote them rich and poor economies. Whereas rich economies can afford to invest in flood defense and therefore avoid flood damage and develop high living standards, poor economies prefer consumption instead of investing in flood defense capital and end up facing flood damages every time the water level rises. Nevertheless, they manage to sustain at least a low level of physical capital. We identify optimal investment strategies and compare simulations with more frequent and more intense high water level events.

  20. A Participatory Modeling Application of a Distributed Hydrologic Model in Nuevo Leon, Mexico for the 2010 Hurricane Alex Flood Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baish, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Payan, J. G.; Robles-Morua, A.; Basile, G. M.

    2011-12-01

    A distributed hydrologic model can help bring consensus among diverse stakeholders in regional flood planning by producing quantifiable sets of alternative futures. This value is acute in areas with high uncertainties in hydrologic conditions and sparse observations. In this study, we conduct an application of the Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) in the Santa Catarina basin of Nuevo Leon, Mexico, where Hurricane Alex in July 2010 led to catastrophic flooding of the capital city of Monterrey. Distributed model simulations utilize best-available information on the regional topography, land cover, and soils obtained from Mexican government agencies or analysis of remotely-sensed imagery from MODIS and ASTER. Furthermore, we developed meteorological forcing for the flood event based on multiple data sources, including three local gauge networks, satellite-based estimates from TRMM and PERSIANN, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Remotely-sensed data allowed us to quantify rainfall distributions in the upland, rural portions of the Santa Catarina that are sparsely populated and ungauged. Rural areas had significant contributions to the flood event and as a result were considered by stakeholders for flood control measures, including new reservoirs and upland vegetation management. Participatory modeling workshops with the stakeholders revealed a disconnect between urban and rural populations in regard to understanding the hydrologic conditions of the flood event and the effectiveness of existing and potential flood control measures. Despite these challenges, the use of the distributed flood forecasts developed within this participatory framework facilitated building consensus among diverse stakeholders and exploring alternative futures in the basin.

  1. Flood hazard assessment for french NPPs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rebour, Vincent; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Guimier, Laurent

    2015-04-01

    This paper presents the approach for flood hazard assessment for NPP which is on-going in France in the framework of post-Fukushima activities. These activities were initially defined considering both European "stress tests" of NPPs pursuant to the request of the European Council, and the French safety audit of civilian nuclear facilities in the light of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. The main actors in that process are the utility (EDF is, up to date, the unique NPP's operator in France), the regulatory authority (ASN) and its technical support organization (IRSN). This paper was prepared by IRSN, considering official positions of the other main actors in the current review process, it was not officially endorsed by them. In France, flood hazard to be considered for design basis definition (for new NPPs and for existing NPPs in periodic safety reviews conducted every 10 years) was revised before Fukushima-Daichi accident, due to le Blayais NPP December 1999 experience (partial site flooding and loss of some safety classified systems). The paper presents in the first part an overview of the revised guidance for design basis flood. In order to address design extension conditions (conditions that could result from natural events exceeding the design basis events), a set of flooding scenarios have been defined by adding margins on the scenarios that are considered for the design. Due to the diversity of phenomena to be considered for flooding hazard, the margin assessment is specific to each flooding scenario in terms of parameter to be penalized and of degree of variation of this parameter. The general approach to address design extension conditions is presented in the second part of the paper. The next parts present the approach for five flooding scenarios including design basis scenario and additional margin to define design extension scenarios.

  2. Piloting a real-time surface water flood nowcasting system for enhancing operational resilience of emergency responders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Dapeng; Guan, Mingfu; Wilby, Robert; Bruce, Wright; Szegner, Mark

    2017-04-01

    Emergency services (such as Fire & Rescue, and Ambulance) can face the challenging tasks of having to respond to or operate under extreme and fast changing weather conditions, including surface water flooding. UK-wide, return period based surface water flood risk mapping undertaken by the Environment Agency provides useful information about areas at risks. Although these maps are useful for planning purposes for emergency responders, their utility to operational response during flood emergencies can be limited. A street-level, high resolution, real-time, surface water flood nowcasting system, has been piloted in the City of Leicester, UK to assess emergency response resilience to surface water flooding. Precipitation nowcasting over 7- and 48-hour horizons are obtained from the UK Met Office and used as inputs to the system. A hydro-inundation model is used to simulate urban surface water flood depths/areas at both the city and basin scale, with a 20 m and 3 m spatial resolution respectively, and a 15-minute temporal resolution, 7-hour and 48-hour in advance. Based on this, we evaluate both the direct and indirect impacts of potential surface water flood events on emergency responses, including: (i) identifying vulnerable populations (e.g. care homes and schools) at risk; and (ii) generating novel metrics of accessibility (e.g. travel time from service stations to vulnerable sites; spatial coverage with certain legislative timeframes) in real-time. In doing so, real-time information on potential risks and impacts of emerging flood incidents arising from intense rainfall can be communicated via a dedicated web-based platform to emergency responders thereby improving response times and operational resilience.

  3. Integrating Fluvial and Oceanic Drivers in Operational Flooding Forecasts for San Francisco Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herdman, Liv; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Kim, Jungho; Cifelli, Rob; Johnson, Lynn

    2016-04-01

    The nine counties that make up the San Francisco Bay area are home to 7.5 million people and these communties are susceptible to flooding along the bay shoreline and inland creeks that drain to the bay. A forecast model that integrates fluvial and oceanic drivers is necessary for predicting flooding in this complex urban environment. The U.S. Geological Survey ( USGS) and National Weather Service (NWS) are developing a state-of-the-art flooding forecast model for the San Francisco Bay area that will predict watershed and ocean-based flooding up to 72 hours in advance of an approaching storm. The model framework for flood forecasts is based on the USGS-developed Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) that was applied to San Francisco Bay under the Our Coast Our Future project. For this application, we utilize Delft3D-FM, a hydrodynamic model based on a flexible mesh grid, to calculate water levels that account for tidal forcing, seasonal water level anomalies, surge and in-Bay generated wind waves from the wind and pressure fields of a NWS forecast model, and tributary discharges from the Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM), developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development. The flooding extent is determined by overlaying the resulting water levels onto a recently completed 2-m digital elevation model of the study area which best resolves the extensive levee and tidal marsh systems in the region. Here we present initial pilot results of hindcast winter storms in January 2010 and December 2012, where the flooding is driven by oceanic and fluvial factors respectively. We also demonstrate the feasibility of predicting flooding on an operational time scale that incorporates both atmospheric and hydrologic forcings.

  4. Implementing Extreme Value Analysis in a Geospatial Workflow for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catelli, J.; Nong, S.

    2014-12-01

    Gridded data of 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) storm surge flood elevations for the United States, Gulf of Mexico, and East Coast are critical to understanding this natural hazard. Storm surge heights were calculated across the study area utilizing SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model data for thousands of synthetic US landfalling hurricanes. Based on the results derived from SLOSH, a series of interpolations were performed using spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) at both the SLOSH basin and the synthetic event levels. The result was a single grid of maximum flood elevations for each synthetic event. This project addresses the need to utilize extreme value theory in a geospatial environment to analyze coincident cells across multiple synthetic events. The results are 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) values for each grid cell in the study area. This talk details a geospatial approach to move raster data to SciPy's NumPy Array structure using the Python programming language. The data are then connected through a Python library to an outside statistical package like R to fit cell values to extreme value theory distributions and return values for specified recurrence intervals. While this is not a new process, the value behind this work is the ability to keep this process in a single geospatial environment and be able to easily replicate this process for other natural hazard applications and extreme event modeling.

  5. Vertical accretion sand proxies of gaged floods along the upper Little Tennessee River, Blue Ridge Mountains, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leigh, David S.

    2018-02-01

    Understanding environmental hazards presented by river flooding has been enhanced by paleoflood analysis, which uses sedimentary records to document floods beyond historical records. Bottomland overbank deposits (e.g., natural levees, floodbasins, meander scars, low terraces) have the potential as continuous paleoflood archives of flood frequency and magnitude, but they have been under-utilized because of uncertainty about their ability to derive flood magnitude estimates. The purpose of this paper is to provide a case study that illuminates tremendous potential of bottomland overbank sediments as reliable proxies of both flood frequency and magnitude. Methods involve correlation of particle-size measurements of the coarse tail of overbank deposits (> 0.25 mm sand) from three separate sites with historical flood discharge records for the upper Little Tennessee River in the Blue Ridge Mountains of the southeastern United States. Results show that essentially all floods larger than a 20% probability event can be detected by the coarse tail of particle-size distributions, especially if the temporal resolution of sampling is annual or sub-annual. Coarser temporal resolution (1.0 to 2.5 year sample intervals) provides an adequate record of large floods, but is unable to discriminate individual floods separated by only one to three years. Measurements of > 0.25 mm sand that are normalized against a smoothed trend line through the down-column data produce highly significant correlations (R2 values of 0.50 to 0.60 with p-values of 0.004 to < 0.001) between sand peak values and flood peak discharges, indicating that flood magnitude can be reliably estimated. In summary, bottomland overbank deposits can provide excellent continuous records of paleofloods when the following conditions are met: 1) Stable depositional sites should be chosen; 2) Analysis should concentrate on the coarse tails of particle-size distributions; 3) Sampling of sediment intervals should achieve annual or better resolution; 4) Time-series data of particle-size should be detrended to minimize variation from dynamic aspects of fluvial sedimentation that are not related to flood magnitude; and 5) Multiple sites should be chosen to allow for replication of findings.

  6. Spatiotemporal hazard mapping of a flood event "migration" in a transboundary river basin as an operational tool in flood risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perrou, Theodora; Papastergios, Asterios; Parcharidis, Issaak; Chini, Marco

    2017-10-01

    Flood disaster is one of the heaviest disasters in the world. It is necessary to monitor and evaluate the flood disaster in order to mitigate the consequences. As floods do not recognize borders, transboundary flood risk management is imperative in shared river basins. Disaster management is highly dependent on early information and requires data from the whole river basin. Based on the hypothesis that the flood events over the same area with same magnitude have almost identical evolution, it is crucial to develop a repository database of historical flood events. This tool, in the case of extended transboundary river basins, could constitute an operational warning system for the downstream area. The utility of SAR images for flood mapping, was demonstrated by previous studies but the SAR systems in orbit were not characterized by high operational capacity. Copernicus system will fill this gap in operational service for risk management, especially during emergency phase. The operational capabilities have been significantly improved by newly available satellite constellation, such as the Sentinel-1A AB mission, which is able to provide systematic acquisitions with a very high temporal resolution in a wide swath coverage. The present study deals with the monitoring of a transboundary flood event in Evros basin. The objective of the study is to create the "migration story" of the flooded areas on the basis of the evolution in time for the event occurred from October 2014 till May 2015. Flood hazard maps will be created, using SAR-based semi-automatic algorithms and then through the synthesis of the related maps in a GIS-system, a spatiotemporal thematic map of the event will be produced. The thematic map combined with TanDEM-X DEM, 12m/pixel spatial resolution, will define the non- affected areas which is a very useful information for the emergency planning and emergency response phases. The Sentinels meet the main requirements to be an effective and suitable operational tool in transboundary flood risk management.

  7. Development of method for evaluating estimated inundation area by using river flood analysis based on multiple flood scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ono, T.; Takahashi, T.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural mitigation measures such as flood hazard map based on estimated inundation area have been more important because heavy rains exceeding the design rainfall frequently occur in recent years. However, conventional method may lead to an underestimation of the area because assumed locations of dike breach in river flood analysis are limited to the cases exceeding the high-water level. The objective of this study is to consider the uncertainty of estimated inundation area with difference of the location of dike breach in river flood analysis. This study proposed multiple flood scenarios which can set automatically multiple locations of dike breach in river flood analysis. The major premise of adopting this method is not to be able to predict the location of dike breach correctly. The proposed method utilized interval of dike breach which is distance of dike breaches placed next to each other. That is, multiple locations of dike breach were set every interval of dike breach. The 2D shallow water equations was adopted as the governing equation of river flood analysis, and the leap-frog scheme with staggered grid was used. The river flood analysis was verified by applying for the 2015 Kinugawa river flooding, and the proposed multiple flood scenarios was applied for the Akutagawa river in Takatsuki city. As the result of computation in the Akutagawa river, a comparison with each computed maximum inundation depth of dike breaches placed next to each other proved that the proposed method enabled to prevent underestimation of estimated inundation area. Further, the analyses on spatial distribution of inundation class and maximum inundation depth in each of the measurement points also proved that the optimum interval of dike breach which can evaluate the maximum inundation area using the minimum assumed locations of dike breach. In brief, this study found the optimum interval of dike breach in the Akutagawa river, which enabled estimated maximum inundation area to predict efficiently and accurately. The river flood analysis by using this proposed method will contribute to mitigate flood disaster by improving the accuracy of estimated inundation area.

  8. 75 FR 61161 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request, OMB No. 1660-0072...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-10-04

    ... program/project performance for Flood Mitigation Assistance program, Severe Repetitive Loss, Repetitive Flood Claim, and Pre-Disaster Mitigation activities. DATES: Comments must be submitted on or before... INFORMATION: This collection of information is necessary to implement grants for the Flood Mitigation...

  9. The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2014-06-01

    We evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the prediction of the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is an operational flood forecasting system for Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model (LISFLOOD) for flood predictions with lead times of up to 10 days. For this study, satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer), AMSR-E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) is assimilated into the LISFLOOD model for the Upper Danube Basin and results are compared to assimilation of discharge observations only. To assimilate soil moisture and discharge data into the hydrological model, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, is included to ensure increased performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF are used as an independent validation data set. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are assimilated; the mean absolute error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 35%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of baseflows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 5-10% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. When soil moisture data is used, the timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased especially for shorter lead times and imminent floods can be forecasted with more skill. The number of false flood alerts is reduced when more observational data is assimilated into the system. The added values of the satellite data is largest when these observations are assimilated in combination with distributed discharge observations. These results show the potential of remotely sensed soil moisture observations to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

  10. An Overview of the Iowa Flood Forecasting and Monitoring System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krajewski, W. F.

    2016-12-01

    Following the 2008 flood that devastated eastern Iowa the state legislators established the Iowa Flood Center at the University of Iowa with the mission of translational research towards flood mitigation. The Center has adavanced several components towards this goal. In particular, the Center has developed (1) state-wide flood inundation maps based on airborne lidar-based topography data and hydraulic models; (2) a network of nearly 250 real-time ultrasonic river stage sensors; (3) a detailed rainfall-runoff model for real time streamflow forecasting; and (4) cyberinfrastructure to acquire and manage data that includes High Performance Computing and browser-based information system designed for use by general public. The author discusses these components, their operational performance and their potential to assist in development of similar nation-wide systems. Specifically, many developments taking place at the National Water Center can benefit from the Iowa system serving as a reference.

  11. DTN routing in body sensor networks with dynamic postural partitioning.

    PubMed

    Quwaider, Muhannad; Biswas, Subir

    2010-11-01

    This paper presents novel store-and-forward packet routing algorithms for Wireless Body Area Networks ( WBAN ) with frequent postural partitioning. A prototype WBAN has been constructed for experimentally characterizing on-body topology disconnections in the presence of ultra short range radio links, unpredictable RF attenuation, and human postural mobility. On-body DTN routing protocols are then developed using a stochastic link cost formulation, capturing multi-scale topological localities in human postural movements. Performance of the proposed protocols are evaluated experimentally and via simulation, and are compared with a number of existing single-copy DTN routing protocols and an on-body packet flooding mechanism that serves as a performance benchmark with delay lower-bound. It is shown that via multi-scale modeling of the spatio-temporal locality of on-body link disconnection patterns, the proposed algorithms can provide better routing performance compared to a number of existing probabilistic, opportunistic, and utility-based DTN routing protocols in the literature.

  12. Application of fuzzy weight of evidence and data mining techniques in construction of flood susceptibility map of Poyang County, China.

    PubMed

    Hong, Haoyuan; Tsangaratos, Paraskevas; Ilia, Ioanna; Liu, Junzhi; Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, Wei

    2018-06-01

    In China, floods are considered as the most frequent natural disaster responsible for severe economic losses and serious damages recorded in agriculture and urban infrastructure. Based on the international experience prevention of flood events may not be completely possible, however identifying susceptible and vulnerable areas through prediction models is considered as a more visible task with flood susceptibility mapping being an essential tool for flood mitigation strategies and disaster preparedness. In this context, the present study proposes a novel approach to construct a flood susceptibility map in the Poyang County, JiangXi Province, China by implementing fuzzy weight of evidence (fuzzy-WofE) and data mining methods. The novelty of the presented approach is the usage of fuzzy-WofE that had a twofold purpose. Firstly, to create an initial flood susceptibility map in order to identify non-flood areas and secondly to weight the importance of flood related variables which influence flooding. Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) were implemented considering eleven flood related variables, namely: lithology, soil cover, elevation, slope angle, aspect, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, plan curvature, profile curvature and distance from river network. The efficiency of this new approach was evaluated using area under curve (AUC) which measured the prediction and success rates. According to the outcomes of the performed analysis, the fuzzy WofE-SVM model was the model with the highest predictive performance (AUC value, 0.9865) which also appeared to be statistical significant different from the other predictive models, fuzzy WofE-RF (AUC value, 0.9756) and fuzzy WofE-LR (AUC value, 0.9652). The proposed methodology and the produced flood susceptibility map could assist researchers and local governments in flood mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. A framework for global river flood risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Van Beek, L. P. H.; Jongman, B.; Ward, P. J.; Bouwman, A.

    2012-08-01

    There is an increasing need for strategic global assessments of flood risks in current and future conditions. In this paper, we propose a framework for global flood risk assessment for river floods, which can be applied in current conditions, as well as in future conditions due to climate and socio-economic changes. The framework's goal is to establish flood hazard and impact estimates at a high enough resolution to allow for their combination into a risk estimate. The framework estimates hazard at high resolution (~1 km2) using global forcing datasets of the current (or in scenario mode, future) climate, a global hydrological model, a global flood routing model, and importantly, a flood extent downscaling routine. The second component of the framework combines hazard with flood impact models at the same resolution (e.g. damage, affected GDP, and affected population) to establish indicators for flood risk (e.g. annual expected damage, affected GDP, and affected population). The framework has been applied using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which includes an optional global flood routing model DynRout, combined with scenarios from the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE). We performed downscaling of the hazard probability distributions to 1 km2 resolution with a new downscaling algorithm, applied on Bangladesh as a first case-study application area. We demonstrate the risk assessment approach in Bangladesh based on GDP per capita data, population, and land use maps for 2010 and 2050. Validation of the hazard and damage estimates has been performed using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database and damage estimates from the EM-DAT database and World Bank sources. We discuss and show sensitivities of the estimated risks with regard to the use of different climate input sets, decisions made in the downscaling algorithm, and different approaches to establish impact models.

  14. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Davis, R.J.

    Whether water resource developers are utility operators, cities, industrialists of agriculturalists, their interests and those of affected landowners must accommodate each other. They must come together as men, and compromise their difficulties. Past disputes and their resolutions are guides to present and future flood-hazard settlement. Utah Lake and the Jordan River were once the setting for an equitable settlement of a flood hazard. In 1885, President John Taylor (President Taylor) of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints played a significant role in bringing about a compromise between downstream water users in Salt Lake County, Utah, and adversely affectedmore » upstream landowners in Provo and other parts of Utah County. Subsequent periodic flooding resulted in a second compromise agreement a century later. This paper considers the Utah Lake and Jordan River experiences. It examines the two compromises, how they came about, and their impact upon water resource management. In addition to their historical interest, these settlements provide useful guidance for negotiation and resolution of flood hazard disputes.« less

  15. Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting based on different-resolution distributed hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, J.

    2017-12-01

    Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting is very important for a distributed hydrological model in the application. There are some challenges including the model's spatial resolution effect, model performance and accuracy and so on. To cope with the challenge of the model's spatial resolution effect, different model resolution including 1000m*1000m, 600m*600m, 500m*500m, 400m*400m, 200m*200m were used to build the distributed hydrological model—Liuxihe model respectively. The purpose is to find which one is the best resolution for Liuxihe model in Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting. This study sets up a physically based distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting of the Liujiang River basin in south China. Terrain data digital elevation model (DEM), soil type and land use type are downloaded from the website freely. The model parameters are optimized by using an improved Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) algorithm; And parameter optimization could reduce the parameter uncertainty that exists for physically deriving model parameters. The different model resolution (200m*200m—1000m*1000m ) are proposed for modeling the Liujiang River basin flood with the Liuxihe model in this study. The best model's spatial resolution effect for flood simulation and forecasting is 200m*200m.And with the model's spatial resolution reduction, the model performance and accuracy also become worse and worse. When the model resolution is 1000m*1000m, the flood simulation and forecasting result is the worst, also the river channel divided based on this resolution is differs from the actual one. To keep the model with an acceptable performance, minimum model spatial resolution is needed. The suggested threshold model spatial resolution for modeling the Liujiang River basin flood is a 500m*500m grid cell, but the model spatial resolution with a 200m*200m grid cell is recommended in this study to keep the model at a best performance.

  16. Measuring flood footprint of a regional economy - A case study for the UK flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, D.

    2013-12-01

    Analysis of the urban economy and society is central to understanding the broad impacts of flooding and to identify cost-effective adaptation and mitigation measures. Assessments of the flooding impacts on cities have traditionally focused on the initial impact on people and assets. These initial estimates (so-called ';direct damage') are useful both in understanding the immediate implications of damage, and in marshalling the pools of capital and supplies required for re-building after an event. Since different economies as well as societies are coupled, especially under the current economic crisis, any small-scale damage may be multiplied and cascaded throughout wider economic systems and social networks. The direct and indirect damage is currently not evaluated well and could be captured by quantification of what we call the flood footprint. Flooding in one location can impact the whole UK economy. Neglecting these knock-on costs (i.e. the true footprint of the flood) means we might be ignoring the economic benefits and beneficiaries of flood risk management interventions. In 2007, for example, floods cost the economy about £3.2 bn directly, but the wider effect might actually add another 50% to 250% to that. Flood footprint is a measure of the exclusive total socioeconomic impact that is directly and indirectly caused by a flood event to the flooding region and wider economic systems and social networks. We adopt the UK 2012 flooding. An input-output basic dynamic inequalities (BDI) model is used to assess the impact of the floodings on the level of a Yorkshire economy, accounting for interactions between industries through demand and supply of intermediate consumption goods with a circular flow. After the disaster the economy will be unbalanced. The recovery process finishes when the economy is completely balance, i.e., when labour production capacity equals demands and production and all the variables reach pre-disaster levels. The analysis is carried out focusing on 42 sectors. Most regional data have been produced from the Multisectoral Dynamic Model of the UK economy. The flooding caused a 3.56% direct damage in the Yorkshire economy, while the indirect accounted for 14.58%.Utilities and transportation where the sectors that suffered the greatest direct impact. This impact indirectly transferred through business and supply chain to services, construction and primary industries.

  17. On the performance of satellite precipitation products in riverine flood modeling: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maggioni, Viviana; Massari, Christian

    2018-03-01

    This work is meant to summarize lessons learned on using satellite precipitation products for riverine flood modeling and to propose future directions in this field of research. Firstly, the most common satellite precipitation products (SPPs) during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) eras are reviewed. Secondly, we discuss the main errors and uncertainty sources in these datasets that have the potential to affect streamflow and runoff model simulations. Thirdly, past studies that focused on using SPPs for predicting streamflow and runoff are analyzed. As the impact of floods depends not only on the characteristics of the flood itself, but also on the characteristics of the region (population density, land use, geophysical and climatic factors), a regional analysis is required to assess the performance of hydrologic models in monitoring and predicting floods. The performance of SPP-forced hydrological models was shown to largely depend on several factors, including precipitation type, seasonality, hydrological model formulation, topography. Across several basins around the world, the bias in SPPs was recognized as a major issue and bias correction methods of different complexity were shown to significantly reduce streamflow errors. Model re-calibration was also raised as a viable option to improve SPP-forced streamflow simulations, but caution is necessary when recalibrating models with SPP, which may result in unrealistic parameter values. From a general standpoint, there is significant potential for using satellite observations in flood forecasting, but the performance of SPP in hydrological modeling is still inadequate for operational purposes.

  18. Metabolic profiles of flooding-tolerant mechanism in early-stage soybean responding to initial stress.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xin; Zhu, Wei; Hashiguchi, Akiko; Nishimura, Minoru; Tian, Jingkui; Komatsu, Setsuko

    2017-08-01

    Metabolomic analysis of flooding-tolerant mutant and abscisic acid-treated soybeans suggests that accumulated fructose might play a role in initial flooding tolerance through regulation of hexokinase and phosphofructokinase. Soybean is sensitive to flooding stress, which markedly reduces plant growth. To explore the mechanism underlying initial-flooding tolerance in soybean, mass spectrometry-based metabolomic analysis was performed using flooding-tolerant mutant and abscisic-acid treated soybeans. Among the commonly-identified metabolites in both flooding-tolerant materials, metabolites involved in carbohydrate and organic acid displayed same profile at initial-flooding stress. Sugar metabolism was highlighted in both flooding-tolerant materials with the decreased and increased accumulation of sucrose and fructose, respectively, compared to flooded soybeans. Gene expression of hexokinase 1 was upregulated in flooded soybean; however, it was downregulated in both flooding-tolerant materials. Metabolites involved in carbohydrate/organic acid and proteins related to glycolysis/tricarboxylic acid cycle were integrated. Increased protein abundance of phosphofructokinase was identified in both flooding-tolerant materials, which was in agreement with its enzyme activity. Furthermore, sugar metabolism was pointed out as the tolerant-responsive process at initial-flooding stress with the integration of metabolomics, proteomics, and transcriptomics. Moreover, application of fructose declined the increased fresh weight of plant induced by flooding stress. These results suggest that fructose might be the critical metabolite through regulation of hexokinase and phosphofructokinase to confer initial-flooding stress in soybean.

  19. Total Water Management: A Watershed Based Approach

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this urbanizing world, municipal water managers need to develop planning and management frameworks to meet challenges such as limiting fresh water supplies, degrading receiving waters, increasing regulatory requirements, flooding, aging infrastructure, rising utility (energy) ...

  20. Total Water Management: A Watershed Based Approach - slides

    EPA Science Inventory

    ABSTRACT In this urbanizing world, municipal water managers need to develop planning and management frameworks to meet challenges such as limiting fresh water supplies, degrading receiving waters, increasing regulatory requirements, flooding, aging infrastructure, rising utility...

  1. The Dynamics of Flowing Waters.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mattingly, Rosanna L.

    1987-01-01

    Describes a series of activities designed to help students understand the dynamics of flowing water. Includes investigations into determining water discharge, calculating variable velocities, utilizing flood formulas, graphing stream profiles, and learning about the water cycle. (TW)

  2. Evaluation and Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Flooding Through Sweep Improvement

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hughes, Richard

    2009-09-30

    Carbon dioxide displacement is a common improved recovery method applied to light oil reservoirs (30-45{degrees}API). The economic and technical success of CO{sub 2} floods is often limited by poor sweep efficiency or large CO{sub 2} utilization rates. Projected incremental recoveries for CO{sub 2} floods range from 7% to 20% of the original oil in place; however, actual incremental recoveries range from 9% to 15% of the original oil in place, indicating the potential for significant additional recoveries with improved sweep efficiency. This research program was designed to study the effectiveness of carbon dioxide flooding in a mature reservoir to identifymore » and develop methods and strategies to improve oil recovery in carbon dioxide floods. Specifically, the project has focused on relating laboratory, theoretical and simulation studies to actual field performance in a CO{sub 2} flood in an attempt to understand and mitigate problems of areal and vertical sweep efficiency. In this work the focus has been on evaluating the status of existing swept regions of a mature CO{sub 2} flood and developing procedures to improve the design of proposed floods. The Little Creek Field, Mississippi has been studied through laboratory, theoretical, numerical and simulation studies in an attempt to relate performance predictions to historical reservoir performance to determine sweep efficiency, improve the understanding of the reservoir response to CO{sub 2} injection, and develop scaling methodologies to relate laboratory data and simulation results to predicted reservoir behavior. Existing laboratory information from Little Creek was analyzed and an extensive amount of field data was collected. This was merged with an understanding of previous work at Little Creek to generate a detailed simulation study of two portions of the field – the original pilot area and a currently active part of the field. This work was done to try to relate all of this information to an understanding of where the CO{sub 2} went or is going and how recovery might be improved. New data was also generated in this process. Production logs were run to understand where the CO{sub 2} was entering the reservoir related to core and log information and also to corroborate the simulation model. A methodology was developed and successfully tested for evaluating saturations in a cased-hole environment. Finally an experimental and theoretical program was initiated to relate laboratory work to field scale design and analysis of operations. This work found that an understanding of vertical and areal heterogeneity is crucial for understanding sweep processes as well as understanding appropriate mitigation techniques to improve the sweep. Production and injection logs can provide some understanding of that heterogeneity when core data is not available. The cased-hole saturation logs developed in the project will also be an important part of the evaluation of vertical heterogeneity. Evaluation of injection well/production well connectivities through statistical or numerical techniques were found to be as successful in evaluating CO{sub 2} floods as they are for waterfloods. These are likely to be the lowest cost techniques to evaluate areal sweep. Full field simulation and 4D seismic techniques are other possibilities but were beyond the scope of the project. Detailed simulation studies of pattern areas proved insightful both for doing a “post-mortem” analysis of the pilot area as well as a late-term, active portion of the Little Creek Field. This work also evaluated options for improving sweep in the current flood as well as evaluating options that could have been successful at recovering more oil. That simulation study was successful due to the integration of a large amount of data supplied by the operator as well as collected through the course of the project. While most projects would not have the abundance of data that Little Creek had, integration of the available data continues to be critical for both the design and evaluation stages of CO{sub 2} floods. For cases where data availability is limited, running injection/production logs and/or running cased-hole saturation tools to provide an indication of vertical heterogeneity will be important.« less

  3. Historical floods reconstruction using NOAA 20CR global climate reanalysis over the last 150 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathevet, T.; Brigode, P.; Jégonday, S.; Hingray, B.; Gailhard, J.; Wilhelm, B.

    2017-12-01

    Since several years, climatologists are producing long reanalysis for studying the variability of global climate over the last 150 years. For hydrologists, these datasets offer interesting opportunities for reconstructing historical flood events, and thus increasing the sample size used for flood frequency analysis. In this study, a streamflow reconstruction method based on the analogy of atmospheric situations (using NOAA 20CR reanalysis) for the reconstruction of climatic series and on a rainfall-runoff model for the streamflow reconstruction has been applied over different French catchments at the daily timestep. The studied catchments have been selected because of the availability of long observed streamflow series (used for quantifying the performances of the flood reconstructions) and for their different hydro-climatological regimes. Different methodologies have been tested for the reconstruction of daily climatic series over the 1851-2014 period, using geopotential heights and additional variables available within the 20CR reanalysis (relative humidity, precipitable water, etc.). Long observed climatic series have also been used when available as a reference for the climatic reconstructions. The different reconstruction methods have been finally ranked in terms of their historical flood reconstruction performances, quantified by flood types (autumn or winter floods) and atmospheric genesis (using a weather pattern classification). The obtained results indicate that using additional 20CR variables to the geopotential heights only slightly improve the flood reconstructions, while using observed climatic series improves significantly the flood reconstruction over the different catchments.

  4. Hazards of Extreme Weather: Flood Fatalities in Texas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharif, H. O.; Jackson, T.; Bin-Shafique, S.

    2009-12-01

    The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) considers flooding “America’s Number One Natural Hazard”. Despite flood management efforts in many communities, U.S. flood damages remain high, due, in large part, to increasing population and property development in flood-prone areas. Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. There are three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). This study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1960 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and weather conditions. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (about 65%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers. Hydrologic analysis of a flood event that resulted in five fatalities was performed. A hydrologic model was able to simulate the water level at a location where a vehicle was swept away by flood water resulting in the death of the driver.

  5. On the objective identification of flood seasons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; BobéE, Bernard

    2004-01-01

    The determination of seasons of high and low probability of flood occurrence is a task with many practical applications in contemporary hydrology and water resources management. Flood seasons are generally identified subjectively by visually assessing the temporal distribution of flood occurrences and, then at a regional scale, verified by comparing the temporal distribution with distributions obtained at hydrologically similar neighboring sites. This approach is subjective, time consuming, and potentially unreliable. The main objective of this study is therefore to introduce a new, objective, and systematic method for the identification of flood seasons. The proposed method tests the significance of flood seasons by comparing the observed variability of flood occurrences with the theoretical flood variability in a nonseasonal model. The method also addresses the uncertainty resulting from sampling variability by quantifying the probability associated with the identified flood seasons. The performance of the method was tested on an extensive number of samples with different record lengths generated from several theoretical models of flood seasonality. The proposed approach was then applied on real data from a large set of sites with different flood regimes across Great Britain. The results show that the method can efficiently identify flood seasons from both theoretical and observed distributions of flood occurrence. The results were used for the determination of the main flood seasonality types in Great Britain.

  6. Geomorphologically effective floods from moraine-dammed lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmer, Adam

    2017-12-01

    Outburst floods originating in moraine-dammed lakes represent a significant geomorphological process as well as a specific type of threat for local communities in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru (8.5°-10° S; 77°-78° W). An exceptional concentration of catastrophic floods has been reported from the Cordillera Blanca in the first half of 20th Century (1930s-1950s), leading to thousands of fatalities. The main objective of this paper is to provide a revised and comprehensive overview of geomorphologically effective floods in the area of interest, using various documentary data sources, verified by analysis of remotely sensed images (1948-2013) and enhanced by original field data. Verified events (n = 28; 4 not mentioned before) are analysed from the perspective of spatiotemporal distribution, pre-flood conditions, causes, mechanisms and geomorphological impacts as well as socioeconomical consequences, revealing certain patterns and similar features. GLOFs are further classified according to their magnitude: 5 extreme events, 8 major events and 15 minor events are distinguished, referring to the quantified geomorphological and socioeconomical impacts. Selected moraine dams and flood deposits are dated using lichenometric dating. Special attention is given to moraine dam breaches - the most frequent type of water release with the most significant consequences. Selected major events and their consequences are studied in detail in a separate section. Finally, a general schematic model of lake formation, growth and post-flood evolution reflecting initial topographical setting and glacier retreat is introduced and the utilization of the obtained results is outlined.

  7. The English national cohort study of flooding and health: cross-sectional analysis of mental health outcomes at year one.

    PubMed

    Waite, Thomas David; Chaintarli, Katerina; Beck, Charles R; Bone, Angie; Amlôt, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Reacher, Mark; Armstrong, Ben; Leonardi, Giovanni; Rubin, G James; Oliver, Isabel

    2017-01-28

    In winter 2013/14 there was widespread flooding in England. Previous studies have described an increased prevalence of psychological morbidity six months after flooding. Disruption to essential services may increase morbidity however there have been no studies examining whether those experiencing disruption but not directly flooded are affected. The National Study of Flooding and Health was established in order to investigate the longer-term impact of flooding and related disruptions on mental health and wellbeing. In year one we conducted a cross sectional analysis of people living in neighbourhoods affected by flooding between 1 December 2013 and 31 March 2014. 8761 households were invited to participate. Participants were categorised according to exposure as flooded, disrupted by flooding or unaffected. We used validated instruments to screen for probable psychological morbidity, the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ 2), Generalised Anxiety Disorder scale (GAD-2) and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) checklist (PCL-6). We calculated prevalence and odds ratios for each outcome by exposure group relative to unaffected participants, adjusting for confounders. 2126 people (23%) responded. The prevalence of psychological morbidity was elevated amongst flooded participants ([n = 622] depression 20.1%, anxiety 28.3%, PTSD 36.2%) and disrupted participants ([n = 1099] depression 9.6%, anxiety 10.7% PTSD 15.2%). Flooding was associated with higher odds of all outcomes (adjusted odds ratios (aORs), 95% CIs for depression 5.91 (3.91-10.99), anxiety 6.50 (3.77-11.24), PTSD 7.19 (4.33-11.93)). Flooded participants who reported domestic utilities disruption had higher odds of all outcomes than other flooded participants, (aORs, depression 6.19 (3.30-11.59), anxiety 6.64 (3.84-11.48), PTSD 7.27 (4.39-12.03) aORs without such disruption, depression, 3.14 (1.17-8.39), anxiety 3.45 (1.45-8.22), PTSD 2.90 (1.25-6.73)). Increased floodwater depth was significantly associated with higher odds of each outcome. Disruption without flooding was associated with borderline higher odds of anxiety (aOR 1.61 (0.94-2.77)) and higher odds of PTSD 2.06 (1.27-3.35)) compared with unaffected participants. Disruption to health/social care and work/education was also associated with higher odds of psychological morbidity. This study provides an insight into the impact of flooding on mental health, suggesting that the impacts of flooding are large, prolonged and extend beyond just those whose homes are flooded.

  8. An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.

    PubMed

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad

    2017-10-17

    The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is estimated with and without consideration of climate change impacts and after implementation of LIDs. Results show that climate change has the potential to increase rainfall intensity, flood volume, floodplain extent, and flood depth in the watershed. The results also reveal that improving system resilience by reinforcing the adaptation capacity through implementing LIDs could mitigate flood vulnerability. Moreover, the results indicate the significant effect of uncertainties, arising from the factors' weights as well as climate change, impacts modeling approach, on quantifying flood vulnerability. This study underlines the importance of developing applicable schemes to quantify coastal flood vulnerability for evolving future responses to adverse impacts of climate change.

  9. Urban water infrastructure asset management - a structured approach in four water utilities.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, M A; Silva, M Santos; Coelho, S T; Almeida, M C; Covas, D I C

    2012-01-01

    Water services are a strategic sector of large social and economic relevance. It is therefore essential that they are managed rationally and efficiently. Advanced water supply and wastewater infrastructure asset management (IAM) is key in achieving adequate levels of service in the future, particularly with regard to reliable and high quality drinking water supply, prevention of urban flooding, efficient use of natural resources and prevention of pollution. This paper presents a methodology for supporting the development of urban water IAM, developed during the AWARE-P project as well as an appraisal of its implementation in four water utilities. Both water supply and wastewater systems were considered. Due to the different contexts and features of the utilities, the main concerns vary from case to case; some problems essentially are related to performance, others to risk. Cost is a common deciding factor. The paper describes the procedure applied, focusing on the diversity of drivers, constraints, benefits and outcomes. It also points out the main challenges and the results obtained through the implementation of a structured procedure for supporting urban water IAM.

  10. Large scale modelling of catastrophic floods in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azemar, Frédéric; Nicótina, Ludovico; Sassi, Maximiliano; Savina, Maurizio; Hilberts, Arno

    2017-04-01

    The RMS European Flood HD model® is a suite of country scale flood catastrophe models covering 13 countries throughout continental Europe and the UK. The models are developed with the goal of supporting risk assessment analyses for the insurance industry. Within this framework RMS is developing a hydrologic and inundation model for Italy. The model aims at reproducing the hydrologic and hydraulic properties across the domain through a modeling chain. A semi-distributed hydrologic model that allows capturing the spatial variability of the runoff formation processes is coupled with a one-dimensional river routing algorithm and a two-dimensional (depth averaged) inundation model. This model setup allows capturing the flood risk from both pluvial (overland flow) and fluvial flooding. Here we describe the calibration and validation methodologies for this modelling suite applied to the Italian river basins. The variability that characterizes the domain (in terms of meteorology, topography and hydrologic regimes) requires a modeling approach able to represent a broad range of meteo-hydrologic regimes. The calibration of the rainfall-runoff and river routing models is performed by means of a genetic algorithm that identifies the set of best performing parameters within the search space over the last 50 years. We first establish the quality of the calibration parameters on the full hydrologic balance and on individual discharge peaks by comparing extreme statistics to observations over the calibration period on several stations. The model is then used to analyze the major floods in the country; we discuss the different meteorological setup leading to the historical events and the physical mechanisms that induced these floods. We can thus assess the performance of RMS' hydrological model in view of the physical mechanisms leading to flood and highlight the main controls on flood risk modelling throughout the country. The model's ability to accurately simulate antecedent conditions and discharge hydrographs over the affected area is also assessed, showing that spatio-temporal correlation is retained through the modelling chain. Results show that our modelling approach can capture a wide range of conditions leading to major floods in the Italian peninsula. Under the umbrella of the RMS European Flood HD models this constitutes, to our knowledge, the only operational flood risk model to be applied at continental scale with a coherent model methodology and a domain wide MonteCarlo stochastic set.

  11. From global circulation to flood loss: Coupling models across the scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Felder, Guido; Gomez-Navarro, Juan Jose; Bozhinova, Denica; Zischg, Andreas; Raible, Christoph C.; Ole, Roessler; Martius, Olivia; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    The prediction and the prevention of flood losses requires an extensive understanding of underlying meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic and damage processes. Coupled models help to improve the understanding of such underlying processes and therefore contribute the understanding of flood risk. Using such a modelling approach to determine potentially flood-affected areas and damages requires a complex coupling between several models operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Although the isolated parts of the single modelling components are well established and commonly used in the literature, a full coupling including a mesoscale meteorological model driven by a global circulation one, a hydrologic model, a hydrodynamic model and a flood impact and loss model has not been reported so far. In the present study, we tackle the application of such a coupled model chain in terms of computational resources, scale effects, and model performance. From a technical point of view, results show the general applicability of such a coupled model, as well as good model performance. From a practical point of view, such an approach enables the prediction of flood-induced damages, although some future challenges have been identified.

  12. The Incidence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder After Floods: A Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Chen, Long; Liu, Aizhong

    2015-06-01

    This study analyzes the incidence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among flood victims, between different flood intensities, and between different time points after a flood. A search of several electronic literature databases was conducted to collect data on the incidence of PTSD after a flood. Loney criteria for research quality were used to evaluate the quality of selected search results. The combined incidence of PTSD was estimated using the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation method. Subgroup analyses were conducted on different trauma intensities and different time points after a flood. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of research quality. Fourteen articles were included in this meta-analysis, including a total of 40 600 flood victims; 3862 victims were diagnosed with PTSD. The combined incidence of PTSD was 15.74%. The subgroup analyses showed that the incidence of PTSD in victims who experienced severe and moderate flood intensity was higher than that in victims who experienced mild flood intensity. The incidence of PTSD was lower at 6 or more months after a flood (11.45%) than within 6 months (16.01%) of a flood. In conclusion, the incidence of PTSD among floods of different trauma intensities was statistically significant.

  13. Research on classified real-time flood forecasting framework based on K-means cluster and rough set.

    PubMed

    Xu, Wei; Peng, Yong

    2015-01-01

    This research presents a new classified real-time flood forecasting framework. In this framework, historical floods are classified by a K-means cluster according to the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the time variance of precipitation intensity and other hydrological factors. Based on the classified results, a rough set is used to extract the identification rules for real-time flood forecasting. Then, the parameters of different categories within the conceptual hydrological model are calibrated using a genetic algorithm. In real-time forecasting, the corresponding category of parameters is selected for flood forecasting according to the obtained flood information. This research tests the new classified framework on Guanyinge Reservoir and compares the framework with the traditional flood forecasting method. It finds that the performance of the new classified framework is significantly better in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, the framework can be considered in a catchment with fewer historical floods.

  14. Flood Plain Information, Little Black Creek, Towns of Gates, Chili and Ogden, Monroe County, New York.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-08-01

    tPVRTTW’VRroD-cVER ED Flood Plain Information Little Black Creek " T Final Townof Gates, Chili ano Ogden) /_ __...._’ Monroe County, New r7k d. 6. PERFORMING...mad Identify by block number) ) /This report on the Little Black Creek Flood Plain within the Town of Chili , Gates, and Ogden in Monroe County has...16 Future flood heights at Gates, Chili , Ogden Sewage Treatment Plant

  15. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  16. Flood Damage Assessment in Pearl River Delta Rural Area Application in Huashan Town, Huadu District,Guanghzou during the 2017 5.7 Heavy Rain Storm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.

    2017-12-01

    The Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China, the summer rain storm occurs frequently, the flood damage is very serious. Damage assessment is the basis of scientific decision-making in disaster mitigation. All approaches of flood damage analysis contain uncertainties due to the inaccuracies and generalisations used, the lack of data aggravates this problem, making methods very rough. This study presents a detailed flood damage assessment framework in Pearl River Delta rural area, using 2017 "5.7" heavy rain storm event to simulate the process and estimate the flood loss in resident building and property, agriculture production. The framework integrates four modules,1) utilize the remote sensing and statistical yearbook and so on to construct the disaster bearing bodies GIS database; 2) using hydraulics model to simulate the flood extent and depth spatial distribution;3)through field investigation to obtain the flood loss data for all kinds of hazard-affected body, using statistical analysis method to get the damage curves;4)Integrate flood scenarios, disaster bearing bodies GIS database and damage curves to calculate the flood loss estimation value. Using this methodology, in the 2017 "5.7" heavy rain storm event, Huashan Town flood damage loss is underestimate compared with the government report, because of not considering the damage of water conservancy facilities. But the disaster loss value on the spatial distribution is consistent with actual situation. In terms of aggregated values in the whole town, the model is capable of obtaining figures that are within the same order of magnitude. This study produce a flood damage assessment framework taking into account the regional characteristics of PRD rural area, provide a template for future practice. This study only considers the current impacts, the framework should be improved by taking into account socio-economic and climatic changes, as well as implementing adaptation measures to be applied to assess the potential future damages. Key words: Heavy rain storm; flood; damage assessment; Pearl River Delta; rural area

  17. A multi-source data assimilation framework for flood forecasting: Accounting for runoff routing lags

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, S.; Xie, X.

    2015-12-01

    In the flood forecasting practice, model performance is usually degraded due to various sources of uncertainties, including the uncertainties from input data, model parameters, model structures and output observations. Data assimilation is a useful methodology to reduce uncertainties in flood forecasting. For the short-term flood forecasting, an accurate estimation of initial soil moisture condition will improve the forecasting performance. Considering the time delay of runoff routing is another important effect for the forecasting performance. Moreover, the observation data of hydrological variables (including ground observations and satellite observations) are becoming easily available. The reliability of the short-term flood forecasting could be improved by assimilating multi-source data. The objective of this study is to develop a multi-source data assimilation framework for real-time flood forecasting. In this data assimilation framework, the first step is assimilating the up-layer soil moisture observations to update model state and generated runoff based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method, and the second step is assimilating discharge observations to update model state and runoff within a fixed time window based on the ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) method. This smoothing technique is adopted to account for the runoff routing lag. Using such assimilation framework of the soil moisture and discharge observations is expected to improve the flood forecasting. In order to distinguish the effectiveness of this dual-step assimilation framework, we designed a dual-EnKF algorithm in which the observed soil moisture and discharge are assimilated separately without accounting for the runoff routing lag. The results show that the multi-source data assimilation framework can effectively improve flood forecasting, especially when the runoff routing has a distinct time lag. Thus, this new data assimilation framework holds a great potential in operational flood forecasting by merging observations from ground measurement and remote sensing retrivals.

  18. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Direct Economic Flood Damages: the FloodRisk Free and Open-Source Software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albano, R.; Sole, A.; Mancusi, L.; Cantisani, A.; Perrone, A.

    2017-12-01

    The considerable increase of flood damages in the the past decades has shifted in Europe the attention from protection against floods to managing flood risks. In this context, the expected damages assessment represents a crucial information within the overall flood risk management process. The present paper proposes an open source software, called FloodRisk, that is able to operatively support stakeholders in the decision making processes with a what-if approach by carrying out the rapid assessment of the flood consequences, in terms of direct economic damage and loss of human lives. The evaluation of the damage scenarios, trough the use of the GIS software proposed here, is essential for cost-benefit or multi-criteria analysis of risk mitigation alternatives. However, considering that quantitative assessment of flood damages scenarios is characterized by intrinsic uncertainty, a scheme has been developed to identify and quantify the role of the input parameters in the total uncertainty of flood loss model application in urban areas with mild terrain and complex topography. By the concept of parallel models, the contribution of different module and input parameters to the total uncertainty is quantified. The results of the present case study have exhibited a high epistemic uncertainty on the damage estimation module and, in particular, on the type and form of the utilized damage functions, which have been adapted and transferred from different geographic and socio-economic contexts because there aren't depth-damage functions that are specifically developed for Italy. Considering that uncertainty and sensitivity depend considerably on local characteristics, the epistemic uncertainty associated with the risk estimate is reduced by introducing additional information into the risk analysis. In the light of the obtained results, it is evident the need to produce and disseminate (open) data to develop micro-scale vulnerability curves. Moreover, the urgent need to push forward research into the implementation of methods and models for the assimilation of uncertainties in decision-making processes emerges.

  19. Impact of temporal resolution of inputs on hydrological model performance: An analysis based on 2400 flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ficchì, Andrea; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken

    2016-07-01

    Hydro-climatic data at short time steps are considered essential to model the rainfall-runoff relationship, especially for short-duration hydrological events, typically flash floods. Also, using fine time step information may be beneficial when using or analysing model outputs at larger aggregated time scales. However, the actual gain in prediction efficiency using short time-step data is not well understood or quantified. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which the performance of hydrological modelling is improved by short time-step data, using a large set of 240 French catchments, for which 2400 flood events were selected. Six-minute rain gauge data were available and the GR4 rainfall-runoff model was run with precipitation inputs at eight different time steps ranging from 6 min to 1 day. Then model outputs were aggregated at seven different reference time scales ranging from sub-hourly to daily for a comparative evaluation of simulations at different target time steps. Three classes of model performance behaviour were found for the 240 test catchments: (i) significant improvement of performance with shorter time steps; (ii) performance insensitivity to the modelling time step; (iii) performance degradation as the time step becomes shorter. The differences between these groups were analysed based on a number of catchment and event characteristics. A statistical test highlighted the most influential explanatory variables for model performance evolution at different time steps, including flow auto-correlation, flood and storm duration, flood hydrograph peakedness, rainfall-runoff lag time and precipitation temporal variability.

  20. The potential of remotely sensed soil moisture for operational flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wanders, N.; Karssenberg, D.; de Roo, A.; de Jong, S.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2013-12-01

    Nowadays, remotely sensed soil moisture is readily available from multiple space born sensors. The high temporal resolution and global coverage make these products very suitable for large-scale land-surface applications. The potential to use these products in operational flood forecasting has thus far not been extensively studied. In this study, we evaluate the added value of assimilated remotely sensed soil moisture for the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and its potential to improve the timing and height of the flood peak and low flows. EFAS is used for operational flood forecasting in Europe and uses a distributed hydrological model for flood predictions for lead times up to 10 days. Satellite-derived soil moisture from ASCAT, AMSR-E and SMOS is assimilated into the EFAS system for the Upper Danube basin and results are compared to assimilation of only discharge observations. Discharge observations are available at the outlet and at six additional locations throughout the catchment. To assimilate soil moisture data into EFAS, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used. Information on the spatial (cross-) correlation of the errors in the satellite products, derived from a detailed model-satellite soil moisture comparison study, is included to ensure optimal performance of the EnKF. For the validation, additional discharge observations not used in the EnKF are used as an independent validation dataset. Our results show that the accuracy of flood forecasts is increased when more discharge observations are used in that the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the ensemble mean is reduced by 65%. The additional inclusion of satellite data results in a further increase of the performance: forecasts of base flows are better and the uncertainty in the overall discharge is reduced, shown by a 10% reduction in the MAE. In addition, floods are predicted with a higher accuracy and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) shows a performance increase of 10-15% on average, compared to assimilation of discharge only. The rank histograms show that the forecast is not biased. The timing errors in the flood predictions are decreased when soil moisture data is used and imminent floods can be forecasted with skill one day earlier. In conclusion, our study shows that assimilation of satellite soil moisture increases the performance of flood forecasting systems for large catchments, like the Upper Danube. The additional gain is highest when discharge observations from both upstream and downstream areas are used in combination with the soil moisture data. These results show the potential of future soil moisture missions with a higher spatial resolution like SMAP to improve near-real time flood forecasting in large catchments.

  1. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    None

    Severe wind and snow storms hit the Pacific Northwest region on December 14 – 15, 2006, following severe flooding during the past few days. The severe weather resulted in major power outages through the region. At peak there were 1.8 million customers without power which included BC Hydro in Canada. Currently, there are over 1.5 million outages in the region as a result of the Pacific Northwest Storms. This represents about 42 percent of customers in affected utility service areas in Oregon and Washington. See table below. Because the current wind and snow storms are coming on the heels ofmore » extensive flooding in the region, electric utilities are experiencing damage. Wind gusts reached close to 100 mph in some areas of the region. The storm is expected to bring its strong winds and heavy snow into Idaho, Montana and Wyoming Friday and into the weekend. There are currently no reported major impacts to the petroleum and natural gas infrastructure.« less

  2. Yolo Bypass Juvenile Salmon Utilization Study 2016—Summary of acoustically tagged juvenile salmon and study fish release, Sacramento River, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Liedtke, Theresa L.; Hurst, William R.

    2017-09-12

    The Yolo Bypass is a flood control bypass in Sacramento Valley, California. Flood plain habitats may be used for juvenile salmon rearing, however, the potential value of such habitats can be difficult to evaluate because of the intermittent nature of inundation events. The Yolo Bypass Juvenile Salmon Utilization Study (YBUS) used acoustic telemetry to evaluate the movements and survival of juvenile salmon adjacent to and within the Yolo Bypass during the winter of 2016. This report presents numbers, size data, and release data (times, dates, and locations) for the 1,197 acoustically tagged juvenile salmon released for the YBUS from February 21 to March 18, 2016. Detailed descriptions of the surgical implantation of transmitters are also presented. These data are presented to support the collaborative, interagency analysis and reporting of the study findings.

  3. Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

    2016-04-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs according to the flooding season, cultivation type and the agro-climatic zone. The flood damage equivalence to constructions summed up to reach 32 M for residential structures, 29 M for non-residential structures, and 5 M for the Syrian refugees tents, while structures' content losses were estimated at 27M, 54M, 7 M respectively for the same flood frequency. The total length of affected road networks during flooding is 1589km with an estimated cost of 565M. The total number of affected population reached 82,000 while the number of effected vehicles is 62,000 for a 50year recurrence period

  4. Geologic CO2 Sequestration: Predicting and Confirming Performance in Oil Reservoirs and Saline Aquifers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, J. W.; Nitao, J. J.; Newmark, R. L.; Kirkendall, B. A.; Nimz, G. J.; Knauss, K. G.; Ziagos, J. P.

    2002-05-01

    Reducing anthropogenic CO2 emissions ranks high among the grand scientific challenges of this century. In the near-term, significant reductions can only be achieved through innovative sequestration strategies that prevent atmospheric release of large-scale CO2 waste streams. Among such strategies, injection into confined geologic formations represents arguably the most promising alternative; and among potential geologic storage sites, oil reservoirs and saline aquifers represent the most attractive targets. Oil reservoirs offer a unique "win-win" approach because CO2 flooding is an effective technique of enhanced oil recovery (EOR), while saline aquifers offer immense storage capacity and widespread distribution. Although CO2-flood EOR has been widely used in the Permian Basin and elsewhere since the 1980s, the oil industry has just recently become concerned with the significant fraction of injected CO2 that eludes recycling and is therefore sequestered. This "lost" CO2 now has potential economic value in the growing emissions credit market; hence, the industry's emerging interest in recasting CO2 floods as co-optimized EOR/sequestration projects. The world's first saline aquifer storage project was also catalyzed in part by economics: Norway's newly imposed atmospheric emissions tax, which spurred development of Statoil's unique North Sea Sleipner facility in 1996. Successful implementation of geologic sequestration projects hinges on development of advanced predictive models and a diverse set of remote sensing, in situ sampling, and experimental techniques. The models are needed to design and forecast long-term sequestration performance; the monitoring techniques are required to confirm and refine model predictions and to ensure compliance with environmental regulations. We have developed a unique reactive transport modeling capability for predicting sequestration performance in saline aquifers, and used it to simulate CO2 injection at Sleipner; we are now extending this capability to address CO2-flood EOR/sequestration in oil reservoirs. We have also developed a suite of innovative geophysical and geochemical techniques for monitoring sequestration performance in both settings. These include electromagnetic induction imaging and electrical resistance tomography for tracking migration of immiscible CO2, noble gas isotopes for assessing trace CO2 leakage through the cap rock, and integrated geochemical sampling, analytical, and experimental methods for determining sequestration partitioning among solubility and mineral trapping mechanisms. We have proposed to demonstrate feasibility of the co-optimized EOR/sequestration concept and utility of our modeling and monitoring technologies to design and evaluate its implementation by conducting a demonstration project in the Livermore Oil Field. This small, mature, shallow field, located less than a mile east of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, is representative of many potential EOR/sequestration sites in California. In approach, this proposed demonstration is analogous to the Weyburn EOR/CO2 monitoring project, to which it will provide an important complement by virtue of its contrasting depth (immiscible versus Weyburn's miscible CO2 flood) and geologic setting (clay-capped sand versus Weyburn's anhydrite-capped carbonate reservoir).

  5. Using the latest paleoclimate insights to better quantify the risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts - how robust are existing water resource management and supply systems in eastern Australia?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiem, Anthony; Vance, Tessa; Roberts, Jason; Ho, Michelle

    2015-04-01

    Floods and droughts always have and always will occur. Both natural climate variability and anthropogenic change influence flood and drought risk but their exact roles, and proportional importance, are not yet properly understood or quantified. To address these challenges, and to move towards a more resilient, well adapted world, a paradigm shift is required that accepts and accounts for the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the processes that drive hydroclimatic risk. This study focuses on recent research from Australia that utilizes several independently derived paleoclimate reconstructions to better understand interannual to multidecadal climate variability and to provide improved quantification of the true risk of low probability, high impact floods and hydrological droughts in the heavily populated eastern Australian region. It is demonstrated that the instrumental hydroclimatic records (which cover only 100 years at best for most parts of Australia) do not capture the full range of flooding and drought that is possible. Also discussed are the implications for water resources management of the realisation that hydroclimatic risk changes over time and that fundamental questions of whether flood and drought risk in Australia will increase or decrease in the future (and where and when and by how much) are as yet unanswered, and how decision makers can robustly deal with such uncertainty.

  6. Applying a coupled hydrometeorological simulation system to flash flood forecasting over the Korean Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, Young; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Ji, Hee-Sook; Park, Hyun-Hee; Chang, Eun-Chul; Kim, Baek-Jo

    2017-11-01

    In flash flood forecasting, it is necessary to consider not only traditional meteorological variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, but also hydrological components such as streamflow. To address this challenge, the application of high resolution coupled atmospheric-hydrological models is emerging as a promising alternative. This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model (WRF/WRFHydro) with 150-m horizontal grid spacing for flash flood forecasting in Korea. The study area is the Namgang Dam basin in Southern Korea, a mountainous area located downstream of Jiri Mountain (1915 m in height). Under flash flood conditions, the simulated precipitation over the entire basin is comparable to the domain-averaged precipitation, but discharge data from WRF-Hydro shows some differences in the total available water and the temporal distribution of streamflow (given by the timing of the streamflow peak following precipitation), compared to observations. On the basis of sensitivity tests, the parameters controlling the infiltration of excess precipitation and channel roughness depending on stream order are refined and their influence on temporal distribution of streamflow is addressed with intent to apply WRF-Hydro to flash flood forecasting in the Namgang Dam basin. The simulation results from the WRF-Hydro model with optimized parameters demonstrate the potential utility of a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model for forecasting heavy rain-induced flash flooding over the Korean Peninsula.

  7. Results of rapid needs assessments in rural and urban Iowa following large-scale flooding events in 2008.

    PubMed

    Quinlisk, Patricia; Jones, Mary J; Bostick, Nathan A; Walsh, Lauren E; Curtiss, Rebecca; Walker, Robert; Mercer, Steve; Subbarao, Italo

    2011-12-01

    On June 8 and 9, 2008, more than 4 inches of rain fell in the Iowa-Cedars River Basin causing widespread flooding along the Cedar River in Benton, Linn, Johnson, and Cedar Counties. As a result of the flooding, there were 18 deaths, 106 injuries, and over 38,000 people displaced from their homes; this made it necessary for the Iowa Department of Health to conduct a rapid needs assessment to quantify the scope and effect of the floods on human health. In response, the Iowa Department of Public Health mobilized interview teams to conduct rapid needs assessments using Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based cluster sampling techniques. The information gathered was subsequently employed to estimate the public health impact and significant human needs that resulted from the flooding. While these assessments did not reveal significant levels of acute injuries resulting from the flood, they did show that many households had been temporarily displaced and that future health risks may emerge as the result of inadequate access to prescription medications or the presence of environmental health hazards. This exercise highlights the need for improved risk communication measures and ongoing surveillance and relief measures. It also demonstrates the utility of rapid needs assessment survey tools and suggests that increasing use of such surveys can have significant public health benefits.

  8. Using multiobjective tradeoff sets and Multivariate Regression Trees to identify critical and robust decisions for long term water utility planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, R.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Balaji, R.

    2017-12-01

    In light of deeply uncertain factors like future climate change and population shifts, responsible resource management will require new types of information and strategies. For water utilities, this entails potential expansion and efficient management of water supply infrastructure systems for changes in overall supply; changes in frequency and severity of climate extremes such as droughts and floods; and variable demands, all while accounting for conflicting long and short term performance objectives. Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) are emerging decision support tools that have been used by researchers and, more recently, water utilities to efficiently generate and evaluate thousands of planning portfolios. The tradeoffs between conflicting objectives are explored in an automated way to produce (often large) suites of portfolios that strike different balances of performance. Once generated, the sets of optimized portfolios are used to support relatively subjective assertions of priorities and human reasoning, leading to adoption of a plan. These large tradeoff sets contain information about complex relationships between decisions and between groups of decisions and performance that, until now, has not been quantitatively described. We present a novel use of Multivariate Regression Trees (MRTs) to analyze tradeoff sets to reveal these relationships and critical decisions. Additionally, when MRTs are applied to tradeoff sets developed for different realizations of an uncertain future, they can identify decisions that are robust across a wide range of conditions and produce fundamental insights about the system being optimized.

  9. A joint probability approach for coincidental flood frequency analysis at ungauged basin confluences

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wang, Cheng

    2016-03-12

    A reliable and accurate flood frequency analysis at the confluence of streams is of importance. Given that long-term peak flow observations are often unavailable at tributary confluences, at a practical level, this paper presents a joint probability approach (JPA) to address the coincidental flood frequency analysis at the ungauged confluence of two streams based on the flow rate data from the upstream tributaries. One case study is performed for comparison against several traditional approaches, including the position-plotting formula, the univariate flood frequency analysis, and the National Flood Frequency Program developed by US Geological Survey. It shows that the results generatedmore » by the JPA approach agree well with the floods estimated by the plotting position and univariate flood frequency analysis based on the observation data.« less

  10. Design and evaluation guidelines for Department of Energy facilities subjected to natural phenomena hazards

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kennedy, R.P.; Short, S.A.; McDonald, J.R.

    1990-06-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) and the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazards Panel have developed uniform design and evaluation guidelines for protection against natural phenomena hazards at DOE sites throughout the United States. The goal of the guidelines is to assure that DOE facilities can withstand the effects of natural phenomena such as earthquakes, extreme winds, tornadoes, and flooding. The guidelines apply to both new facilities (design) and existing facilities (evaluation, modification, and upgrading). The intended audience is primarily the civil/structural or mechanical engineers conducting the design or evaluation of DOE facilities. The likelihood of occurrence of natural phenomena hazards atmore » each DOE site has been evaluated by the DOE Natural Phenomena Hazard Program. Probabilistic hazard models are available for earthquake, extreme wind/tornado, and flood. Alternatively, site organizations are encouraged to develop site-specific hazard models utilizing the most recent information and techniques available. In this document, performance goals and natural hazard levels are expressed in probabilistic terms, and design and evaluation procedures are presented in deterministic terms. Design/evaluation procedures conform closely to common standard practices so that the procedures will be easily understood by most engineers. Performance goals are expressed in terms of structure or equipment damage to the extent that: (1) the facility cannot function; (2) the facility would need to be replaced; or (3) personnel are endangered. 82 refs., 12 figs., 18 tabs.« less

  11. Core clock, SUB1, and ABAR genes mediate flooding and drought responses via alternative splicing in soybean.

    PubMed

    Syed, Naeem H; Prince, Silvas J; Mutava, Raymond N; Patil, Gunvant; Li, Song; Chen, Wei; Babu, Valliyodan; Joshi, Trupti; Khan, Saad; Nguyen, Henry T

    2015-12-01

    Circadian clocks are a great evolutionary innovation and provide competitive advantage during the day/night cycle and under changing environmental conditions. The circadian clock mediates expression of a large proportion of genes in plants, achieving a harmonious relationship between energy metabolism, photosynthesis, and biotic and abiotic stress responses. Here it is shown that multiple paralogues of clock genes are present in soybean (Glycine max) and mediate flooding and drought responses. Differential expression of many clock and SUB1 genes was found under flooding and drought conditions. Furthermore, natural variation in the amplitude and phase shifts in PRR7 and TOC1 genes was also discovered under drought and flooding conditions, respectively. PRR3 exhibited flooding- and drought-specific splicing patterns and may work in concert with PRR7 and TOC1 to achieve energy homeostasis under flooding and drought conditions. Higher expression of TOC1 also coincides with elevated levels of abscisic acid (ABA) and variation in glucose levels in the morning and afternoon, indicating that this response to abiotic stress is mediated by ABA, endogenous sugar levels, and the circadian clock to fine-tune photosynthesis and energy utilization under stress conditions. It is proposed that the presence of multiple clock gene paralogues with variation in DNA sequence, phase, and period could be used to screen exotic germplasm to find sources for drought and flooding tolerance. Furthermore, fine tuning of multiple clock gene paralogues (via a genetic engineering approach) should also facilitate the development of flooding- and drought-tolerant soybean varieties. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Occurrence of floods and the role of climate during the twentieth century (Calabria, Southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrucci, Olga; Polemio, Maurizio

    2010-05-01

    In region as Calabria (Southern Italy), characterized by mountainous morphology, the areas suitable for agriculture and urban development are represented by narrow river and coastal plains. The human utilization of these areas is often hard fought with rivers and flowing waters; floods cause periodically damage to agricultural activities, roads, rural settlements and, sometimes, to people. The morphological setting of the region is dominated by the presence of a main river network made up of ephemeral streams widely observed in southern Italy, are locally called fiumara. They show river beds that in plain sector are often larger than one kilometer, completely dry for almost the entire summer season and affected, during the winter, by severe flash floods characterized by huge sediment load. Because the migration of river channel through the wide river bed, discharge data are unavailable. A wide archive containing data on historical floods occurred through the past two centuries and the defensive works carried out to cope with flood damage in Calabria has been recently upgraded by using data coming from the Ministry of Public Works. In the present work, for a study area located in the northernmost province of Calabria, the historical series of floods which have occurred since 1800 has been collected. Damage caused by the different flood events have been compared to both rainfall data (if available) and data concerning defensive work construction. The aim is to assess if and (for what fiumara of the study area) works carried out in the past obtained the effect of reducing damage caused by flash floods. Results of the analysis can represent a useful tool to correctly drive the future development of the main plain of the study area.

  13. Near real time Forensic Disaster Analysis of the central European flood in June 2013 in Germany: Impact and management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khazai, Bijan; Bessel, Tina; Möhrle, Stella; Dittrich, André; Schröter, Kai; Mühr, Bernhard; Elmer, Florian; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Trieselmann, Werner; Kunz, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Within its current research activity on near real time Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA), researchers from the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) aim to identify major risk drivers and to understand the root causes of disaster and infer the implications for disaster mitigation. A key component of this activity is the development of rapid assessment tools which allow for a science based estimate of disaster impacts. The central European flood in June 2013 caused in Germany severe damage to buildings, infrastructure and agricultural lands and has had a great impact on people, transportation and the economy. In many areas thousands of people were evacuated. Electrical grid and local water supply utilities failed during the floods. Furthermore, traffic was disrupted in the interregional transportation network including federal highways and long distance railways. CEDIM analysed the impact and management of the flood event within an FDA activity. An analysis on the amount and spatial distribution of flood-related Twitter messages in Germany revealed a high interest in the flood in the social media. Furthermore, an analysis of the resilience of selected affected areas in Germany has been carried out to assess the impact of the flood on the district level. The resilience indicator is based on social, economic and institutional indicators which are supplemented with information on the number of people evacuated and transportation disruptions. Combined with the magnitude of the event, an index is calculated that allows for a rapid initial but preliminary estimate of the flood impact. Results show high resilience of the administrative districts along the Danube while heavy impacts are seen along the Mulde and Elbe.

  14. Development of Flood Inundation Libraries using Historical Satellite Data and DEM for Part of Godavari Basin: An Approach Towards Better Flood Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhatt, C. M.; Rao, G. S.; Patro, B.

    2014-12-01

    Conventional method of identifying areas to be inundated for issuing flood alert require inputs like discharge data, fine resolution digital elevation model (DEM), software for modelling and technically trained manpower to interpret the results meaningfully. Due to poor availability of these inputs, including good network of historical hydrological observations and limitation of time, quick flood early warning becomes a difficult task. Presently, based on the daily river water level and forecasted water level for major river systems in India, flood alerts are provided which are non-spatial in nature and does not help in understanding the inundation (spatial dimension) which may be caused at various water levels. In the present paper a concept for developing a series of flood-inundation map libraries two approaches are adopted one by correlating inundation extent derived from historical satellite data analysis with the corresponding water level recorded by the gauge station and the other simulation of inundation using digital elevation model (DEM's) is demonstrated for a part of Godavari Basin. The approach explained can be one of quick and cost-effective method for building a library of flood inundation extents, which can be utilized during flood disaster for alerting population and taking the relief and rescue operations. This layer can be visualized from a spatial dimension together with other spatial information like administrative boundaries, transport network, land use and land cover, digital elevation data and satellite images for better understanding and visualization of areas to be inundated spatially on free web based earth visualization portals like ISRO's Bhuvan portal (http://bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in). This can help decision makers in taking quick appropriate measures for warning, planning relief and rescue operations for the population to get affected under that river stage.

  15. Urban nuisance flooding and topographic wetness index: does excess runoff collect where we think it should in urban landscapes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelleher, C.; McPhillips, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    Urban landscapes translate water in a variety of ways that diverge from more natural systems. In particular, due to the presence of impervious surfaces and alteration of topography, they are prone to nuisance flooding when it rains. To track the locations of areas of minor flooding and other complaints, many cities are now facilitating nuisance reports from residents via information technology services like 311. These reports provide useful information for tracking where in the landscape water may collect during rain events; we sought to use this information to test potential geospatial indices for predictively identifying locations prone to nuisance flooding in urban areas. In this study, we utilized a tool commonly applied in natural systems, topographic indices, to create spatially contiguous estimates of topographic wetness index (TWI), a value that can be used to identify areas within a watershed expected to be preferentially wetter or drier based on topographic slope and surface flow pathways. For several watersheds across Baltimore and New York City (USA), we tested three different resolutions of LiDAR-derived topography and two different methods of flow routing to calculate continuous distributions of TWI. When comparing these values to nuisance flooding locations, we found that distributions of TWI values within a radius of reported nuisance floods were higher, on average, than the distribution of TWI values across each watershed. We also employed a spatial Monte Carlo sampling strategy, randomly selecting grid cells within each watershed to determine if these randomly selected grid cells have preferentially lower TWI values than those near nuisance flooding locations. Overall, we demonstrate that topographic indices may be useful predictors of localized flooding within urban environments.

  16. Risk assessment of tropical cyclone rainfall flooding in the Delaware River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, P.; Lin, N.; Smith, J. A.; Emanuel, K.

    2016-12-01

    Rainfall-induced inland flooding is a leading cause of death, injury, and property damage from tropical cyclones (TCs). In the context of climate change, it has been shown that extreme precipitation from TCs is likely to increase during the 21st century. Assessing the long-term risk of inland flooding associated with landfalling TCs is therefore an important task. Standard risk assessment techniques, which are based on observations from rain gauges and stream gauges, are not broadly applicable to TC induced flooding, since TCs are rare, extreme events with very limited historical observations at any specific location. Also, rain gauges and stream gauges can hardly capture the complex spatial variation of TC rainfall and flooding. Furthermore, the utility of historically based assessments is compromised by climate change. Regional dynamical downscaling models can resolve many features of TC precipitation. In terms of risk assessment, however, it is computationally demanding to run such models to obtain long-term climatology of TC induced flooding. Here we apply a computationally efficient climatological-hydrological method to assess the risk of inland flooding associated with landfalling TCs. It includes: 1) a deterministic TC climatology modeling method to generate large numbers of synthetic TCs with physically correlated characteristics (i.e., track, intensity, size) under observed and projected climates; 2) a simple physics-based tropical cyclone rainfall model which is able to simulate rainfall fields associated with each synthetic storm; 3) a hydrologic modeling system that takes in rainfall fields to simulate flood peaks over an entire drainage basin. We will present results of this method applied to the Delaware River Basin in the mid-Atlantic US.

  17. The integrated effects of future climate and hydrologic uncertainty on sustainable flood risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinschneider, S.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

    2013-12-01

    Flood risk management performance is investigated within the context of integrated climate and hydrologic modeling uncertainty to explore system robustness. The research question investigated is whether structural and hydrologic parameterization uncertainties are significant relative to other uncertainties such as climate change when considering water resources system performance. Two hydrologic models are considered, a conceptual, lumped parameter model that preserves the water balance and a physically-based model that preserves both water and energy balances. In the conceptual model, parameter and structural uncertainties are quantified and propagated through the analysis using a Bayesian modeling framework with an innovative error model. Mean climate changes and internal climate variability are explored using an ensemble of simulations from a stochastic weather generator. The approach presented can be used to quantify the sensitivity of flood protection adequacy to different sources of uncertainty in the climate and hydrologic system, enabling the identification of robust projects that maintain adequate performance despite the uncertainties. The method is demonstrated in a case study for the Coralville Reservoir on the Iowa River, where increased flooding over the past several decades has raised questions about potential impacts of climate change on flood protection adequacy.

  18. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local-scale view of the extent and depth of possible riverine flood events several days in advance by linking forecast river flow from a hydrological model to a global flood risk map. The Monitoring component provides a similar local-scale view of a flood inundation extent but in near real time, as an event unfolds, by combining the global flood risk map with observed river gauge telemetry. Immediately following an event, the maximum extent of the flood is also generated. Users of Flood Foresight will be able to receive current and forecast flood extents and depth information via API into their own GIS or analytics software. The set of tools is currently operational for the UK and Europe; the methods presented can be applied globally, allowing provision of service to any country or region. This project was supported by InnovateUK under the Solving Business Problems with Environmental Data competition.

  19. Long life nickel electrodes for a nickel-hydrogen cell. I Initial performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lim, H. S.; Verzwyvelt, S. A.; Blaser, C.; Keener, K. M.

    1983-01-01

    In order to develop a long life nickel electrode for a Ni/H2 cell, an investigation was begun to study the effects of sinter structure and active material loading level on the long life performance of nickel electrodes. This paper is a report on the initial performance of these electrodes as a part of an accelerated life test program. Seven different types of nickel plaques were made which included three levels of both their mechanical strength and median pore size. These plaques were impregnated with three levels of active material loading. The resultant electrodes were tested by a 200-cycle stress test which was conducted in flooded electrolyte, and also for initial performance in a Ni/H2 boiler plate cell. An interesting and unexpected observation was that an increased initial utilization of the active material was due more to its complete discharge to the lower average oxidation state than its increased charge acceptance in the charged state.

  20. Towards a better knowledge of flash flood forecasting at the Three Gorges Region: Progress over the past decade and challenges ahead

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhe; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Wu, Tianjiao; Xu, Jijun; Gao, Bing; Xu, Tao

    2015-04-01

    The study area, the Three Gorges Region (TGR), plays a critical role in predicting the floods drained into the Three Gorges Reservoir, as reported local floods often exceed 10000m3/s during rainstorm events and trigger fast as well as significant impacts on the Three Gorges Reservoir's regulation. Meanwhile, it is one of typical mountainous areas in China, which is located in the transition zone between two monsoon systems: the East Asian monsoon and the South Asian (Indian) monsoon. This climatic feature, combined with local irregular terrains, has shaped complicated rainfall-runoff regimes in this focal region. However, due to the lack of high-resolution hydrometeorological data and physically-based hydrologic modeling framework, there was little knowledge about rainfall variability and flood pattern in this historically ungauged region, which posed great uncertainties to flash flood forecasting in the past. The present study summarize latest progresses of regional flash floods monitoring and prediction, including installation of a ground-based Hydrometeorological Observation Network (TGR-HMON), application of a regional geomorphology-based hydrological model (TGR-GBHM), development of an integrated forecasting and modeling system (TGR-INFORMS), and evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) products in TGR flash flood forecasting. With these continuing efforts to improve the forecasting performance of flash floods in TGR, we have addressed several critical issues: (1) Current observation network is still insufficient to capture localized rainstorms, and weather radar provides valuable information to forecast flash floods induced by localized rainstorms, although current radar QPE products can be improved substantially in future; (2) Long-term evaluation shows that the geomorphology-based distributed hydrologic model (GBHM) is able to simulate flash flooding processes reasonably, while model performance will decline at hourly scale with larger uncertainties. However, model comparison suggests that this physically-based distributed model (GBHM), compared with a traditional lumped model (Xin'anjiang model), shows more robust performance and larger transferability for prediction in those ungauged basins in TGR; (3) Operational test of our integrated forecasting system (TRG-INFORMS) shows that it works reasonably to simulate the flood routing in Three Gorges reservoir, indicating the accuracy of simulation of total floods generated at region scale; (4) Current operational QPF is too coarse to provide valuable information even for flood forecasting of whole TGR, thus, downscaling and high-resolution QPF are necessary to unravel the potentials of weather forecasting. Finally, according to these results, we also discuss about some possible solutions with high priority for future advanced forecasting scheme of local flash floods in TGR.

  1. Effects of Large Wood on River-Floodplain Connectivity in a Headwater Appalachian Stream

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keys, T.; Govenor, H.; Jones, C. N.; Hession, W. C.; Scott, D.; Hester, E. T.

    2017-12-01

    Large wood (LW) plays an important, yet often undervalued role in stream ecosystems. Traditionally, LW has been removed from streams for aesthetic, navigational, and flood mitigation purposes. However, extensive research over the last three decades has directly linked LW to critical ecosystem functions including habitat provisioning, stream geomorphic stability, and water quality improvements; and as such, LW has increasingly been implemented in stream restoration activities. One of the proposed benefits to this restoration approach is that LW increases river-floodplain connectivity, potentially decreasing downstream flood peaks and improving water quality. Here, we conducted two experiential floods (i.e., one with and one without LW) in a headwater, agricultural stream to explore the effect of LW on river-floodplain connectivity and resulting hydrodynamic processes. During each flood, we released an equal amount of water to the stream channel, measured stream discharge at upstream and downstream boundaries, and measured inundation depth at multiple locations across the floodplain. We then utilized a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model (HEC-RAS) to simulate floodplain hydrodynamics. We first calibrated the model using observations from the two experimental floods. Then, we utilized the calibrated model to evaluate differing LW placement strategies and effects under various flow conditions. Results show that the addition of LW to the channel decreased channel velocity and increased inundation extent, inundation depth, and floodplain velocity. Differential placement of LW along the stream impacted the levels of floodplain discharge, primarily due to the geomorphic characteristics of the stream. Finally, we examined the effects of LW on floodplain hydrodynamics across a synthetic flow record, and found that the magnitude of river-floodplain connectivity decreased as recurrence interval increased, with limited impacts on storm events with a recurrence interval of 25 years or greater. These findings suggest that LW plays a substantial role in river-floodplain connectivity of headwater streams and associated ecosystem services.

  2. Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes. Results from this analysis can provide actionable information needed for policy development and planning for coastal communities.

  3. Application of Satellite Observations to Manage Natural Disasters in the Lake Victoria Basin

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Habib, Shahid; Policelli, F.; Irwin, D.; Korme, Tesfaye; Adler, Bob; Hong, Yang

    2010-01-01

    Lake Victoria, the second largest fresh water lake in the Eastern part of Africa is a vital natural resource for the economic well being and prosperity of over 30 million people located in riparian regions of Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania. It covers a large area of about 68,870 km2 and produces a GDP of about US $30 billion per year. The region is also very much prone to natural disasters such as severe floods during heavy precipitation periods in the Eastern part of Africa. In addition to floods, the precipitation also produces large infestations of mosquito larvae due to the standing water in many areas. This further causes multiple vector borne diseases such as Malaria, Rift Valley Fever and more. These problems are of serious concern and require active and aggressive surveillance and management to minimize the loss of human and animal lives and property damage. Satellite imagery and observations along with the in situ measurements provide a great tool to analyze and study this area and inform the policy makers to make calculated policy decisions which are more beneficial to the environment. Recently, NASA and USAID have joined forces with the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) located in Nairobi, Kenya to utilize multiple NASA sensors such as TRMM, SRTM and MODIS to develop flood potential maps for the Lake Victoria Basin. The idea is to generate a flood forecasts and "nowcasts" that can be sent to the disaster management organizations of Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. Post flood event satellite imagery is becoming a common tool to assess the areas inundated by flooding. However, this work is unique undertaking by utilizing land imaging and atmospheric satellites to build credible flood potential maps. At same time, we are also studying the potential occurrence and spread of Rift Valley Fever disease based on the short term climate records and precipitation data. These activities require multi-nation coordination and agreements and multiple operational agencies within each respective country. It also requires credible in situ data such as precipitation, river flow rates and lake levels to further validate the global and regional Hood models and algorithms. This also requires a considerable amount of training and capacity building for the RCMRD experts who will help us validate the model results and eventually transition it for operational use. In a final analysis, Disaster management and humanitarian aid organizations need accurate and timely information for making decisions regarding deployment of relief teams and emergency supplies during major floods. Flood maps based on the use of satellite data have proven extremely valuable to such organizations for identifying the location, extent, and severity of these events. However, despite extraordinary efforts on the part of remote sensing data providers to rapidly deliver such maps, there is typically a delay of several days or even weeks from the on-set of flooding until such maps are available to the disaster management community. This paper summarizes efforts at NASA to address this problem through development of an integrated and automated process of a) flood forecasting b) flood detection, c) satellite data acquisition, d) rapid Hood mapping and distribution, and e) validation of Hood forecasting and detection products.

  4. Real-time simulation of large-scale floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Q.; Qin, Y.; Li, G. D.; Liu, Z.; Cheng, D. J.; Zhao, Y. H.

    2016-08-01

    According to the complex real-time water situation, the real-time simulation of large-scale floods is very important for flood prevention practice. Model robustness and running efficiency are two critical factors in successful real-time flood simulation. This paper proposed a robust, two-dimensional, shallow water model based on the unstructured Godunov- type finite volume method. A robust wet/dry front method is used to enhance the numerical stability. An adaptive method is proposed to improve the running efficiency. The proposed model is used for large-scale flood simulation on real topography. Results compared to those of MIKE21 show the strong performance of the proposed model.

  5. Transcriptomic analysis reveals the flooding tolerant mechanism in flooding tolerant line and abscisic acid treated soybean.

    PubMed

    Yin, Xiaojian; Hiraga, Susumu; Hajika, Makita; Nishimura, Minoru; Komatsu, Setsuko

    2017-03-01

    Soybean is highly sensitive to flooding stress and exhibits markedly reduced plant growth and grain yield under flooding conditions. To explore the mechanisms underlying initial flooding tolerance in soybean, RNA sequencing-based transcriptomic analysis was performed using a flooding-tolerant line and ABA-treated soybean. A total of 31 genes included 12 genes that exhibited similar temporal patterns were commonly changed in these plant groups in response to flooding and they were mainly involved in RNA regulation and protein metabolism. The mRNA expression of matrix metalloproteinase, glucose-6-phosphate isomerase, ATPase family AAA domain-containing protein 1, and cytochrome P450 77A1 was up-regulated in wild-type soybean under flooding conditions; however, no changes were detected in the flooding-tolerant line or ABA-treated soybean. The mRNA expression of cytochrome P450 77A1 was specifically up-regulated in root tips by flooding stress, but returned to the level found in control plants following treatment with the P450 inhibitor uniconazole. The survival ratio and root fresh weight of plants were markedly improved by 3-h uniconazole treatment under flooding stress. Taken together, these results suggest that cytochrome P450 77A1 is suppressed by uniconazole treatment and that this inhibition may enhance soybean tolerance to flooding stress.

  6. Flooding and Atmospheric Rivers across the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Villarini, G.; Barth, N. A.; White, K. D.

    2017-12-01

    Flood frequency analysis across the western United States is complicated by annual peak flow records that frequently contain flows generated from distinctly different flood generating mechanisms. Among the different flood agents, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for large, regional scale floods. USGS streamgaging stations in the central Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada, the central and southern California coast, and central Arizona show a mixture of 30-70% AR-generated flood peaks among the complete period of record. Bulletin17B and its proposed update (Draft Bulletin 17C) continue to recognize difficulties in determining flood frequency estimates among streamflow records that contain flood peaks coming from different flood-generating mechanisms, as is the case in the western United States. They recommend developing separate frequency curves when the hydrometeorologic mechanisms that generated the annual peak flows can be separated into distinct subpopulations. Yet challenges arise when trying to consistently quantify the physical (hydrometeorologic) processes that generated the observed flows, and even more when trying to account for them in flood frequency estimation. This study provides a general statistical framework to perform a process-driven flood frequency analysis using a weighted mixed population approach, highlighting the role that ARs play on the flood peak distribution.

  7. Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

    2014-12-01

    Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ's understanding of the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding at the airports and guiding decision-making in the selection of effective adaptation actions. Given the importance of these airports to transportation, this project is advancing security and continuity of national and international commerce well into the 21st century.

  8. A framework for the selection and ensemble development of flood vulnerability models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueiredo, Rui; Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Martina, Mario

    2017-04-01

    Effective understanding and management of flood risk requires comprehensive risk assessment studies that consider not only the hazard component, but also the impacts that the phenomena may have on the built environment, economy and society. This integrated approach has gained importance over recent decades, and with it so has the scientific attention given to flood vulnerability models describing the relationships between flood intensity metrics and damage to physical assets, also known as flood loss models. Despite considerable progress in this field, many challenges persist. Flood damage mechanisms are complex and depend on multiple variables, which can have different degrees of importance depending on the application setting. In addition, data required for the development and validation of such models tend to be scarce, particularly in data poor regions. These issues are reflected in the large amount of flood vulnerability models that are available in the literature today, as well as in their high heterogeneity: they are built with different modelling approaches, in different geographic contexts, utilizing different explanatory variables, and with varying levels of complexity. Notwithstanding recent developments in this area, uncertainty remains high, and large disparities exist among models. For these reasons, identifying which model or models, given their properties, are appropriate for a given context is not straightforward. In the present study, we propose a framework that guides the structured selection of flood vulnerability models and enables ranking them according to their suitability for a certain application, based on expert judgement. The approach takes advantage of current state of the art and most up-to-date knowledge on flood vulnerability processes. Given the heterogeneity and uncertainty currently present in flood vulnerability models, we propose the use of a model ensemble. With this in mind, the proposed approach is based on a weighting scheme within a logic-tree framework that enables the generation of such ensembles in a logically consistent manner. We test and discuss the results by applying the framework to the case study of the 2002 floods along the Mulde River in Germany. Applications of individual models and model ensembles are compared and discussed.

  9. An Integrated Urban Flood Analysis System in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Min-Seok; Yoon, Tae-Hyung; Choi, Ji-Hyeok

    2017-04-01

    Due to climate change and the rapid growth of urbanization, the frequency of concentrated heavy rainfall has caused urban floods. As a result, we studied climate change in Korea and developed an integrated flood analysis system that systematized technology to quantify flood risk and flood forecasting in urban areas. This system supports synthetic decision-making through real-time monitoring and prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information. As part of the measures to deal with the increase of inland flood damage, we have found it necessary to build a systematic city flood prevention system that systematizes technology to quantify flood risk as well as flood forecast, taking into consideration both inland and river water. This combined inland-river flood analysis system conducts prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and performs prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded area. In addition, flood forecasts should be accurate and immediate. Accurate flood forecasts signify that the prediction of the watch, warning time and water level is precise. Immediate flood forecasts represent the forecasts lead time which is the time needed to evacuate. Therefore, in this study, in order to apply rainfall-runoff method to medium and small urban stream for flood forecasts, short-term rainfall forecasting using radar is applied to improve immediacy. Finally, it supports synthetic decision-making for prevention of flood disaster through real-time monitoring. Keywords: Urban Flood, Integrated flood analysis system, Rainfall forecasting, Korea Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (16AWMP-B066744-04) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  10. An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Baier, W.G.

    1997-01-01

    This paper presents the expected moments algorithm (EMA), a simple and efficient method for incorporating historical and paleoflood information into flood frequency studies. EMA can utilize three types of at-site flood information: systematic stream gage record; information about the magnitude of historical floods; and knowledge of the number of years in the historical period when no large flood occurred. EMA employs an iterative procedure to compute method-of-moments parameter estimates. Initial parameter estimates are calculated from systematic stream gage data. These moments are then updated by including the measured historical peaks and the expected moments, given the previously estimated parameters, of the below-threshold floods from the historical period. The updated moments result in new parameter estimates, and the last two steps are repeated until the algorithm converges. Monte Carlo simulations compare EMA, Bulletin 17B's [United States Water Resources Council, 1982] historically weighted moments adjustment, and maximum likelihood estimators when fitting the three parameters of the log-Pearson type III distribution. These simulations demonstrate that EMA is more efficient than the Bulletin 17B method, and that it is nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The experiments also suggest that EMA has two advantages over MLE when dealing with the log-Pearson type III distribution: It appears that EMA estimates always exist and that they are unique, although neither result has been proven. EMA can be used with binomial or interval-censored data and with any distributional family amenable to method-of-moments estimation.

  11. Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

    2017-12-01

    The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.

  12. Balancing Flood Risk and Water Supply in California: Policy Search Combining Short-Term Forecast Ensembles and Groundwater Recharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, J. D.; Steinschneider, S.; Nayak, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Short-term weather forecasts are not codified into the operating policies of federal, multi-purpose reservoirs, despite their potential to improve service provision. This is particularly true for facilities that provide flood protection and water supply, since the potential flood damages are often too severe to accept the risk of inaccurate forecasts. Instead, operators must maintain empty storage capacity to mitigate flood risk, even if the system is currently in drought, as occurred in California from 2012-2016. This study investigates the potential for forecast-informed operating rules to improve water supply efficiency while maintaining flood protection, combining state-of-the-art weather hindcasts with a novel tree-based policy optimization framework. We hypothesize that forecasts need only accurately predict the occurrence of a storm, rather than its intensity, to be effective in regions like California where wintertime, synoptic-scale storms dominate the flood regime. We also investigate the potential for downstream groundwater injection to improve the utility of forecasts. These hypotheses are tested in a case study of Folsom Reservoir on the American River. Because available weather hindcasts are relatively short (10-20 years), we propose a new statistical framework to develop synthetic forecasts to assess the risk associated with inaccurate forecasts. The efficiency of operating policies is tested across a range of scenarios that include varying forecast skill and additional groundwater pumping capacity. Results suggest that the combined use of groundwater storage and short-term weather forecasts can substantially improve the tradeoff between water supply and flood control objectives in large, multi-purpose reservoirs in California.

  13. An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohn, T. A.; Lane, W. L.; Baier, W. G.

    This paper presents the expected moments algorithm (EMA), a simple and efficient method for incorporating historical and paleoflood information into flood frequency studies. EMA can utilize three types of at-site flood information: systematic stream gage record; information about the magnitude of historical floods; and knowledge of the number of years in the historical period when no large flood occurred. EMA employs an iterative procedure to compute method-of-moments parameter estimates. Initial parameter estimates are calculated from systematic stream gage data. These moments are then updated by including the measured historical peaks and the expected moments, given the previously estimated parameters, of the below-threshold floods from the historical period. The updated moments result in new parameter estimates, and the last two steps are repeated until the algorithm converges. Monte Carlo simulations compare EMA, Bulletin 17B's [United States Water Resources Council, 1982] historically weighted moments adjustment, and maximum likelihood estimators when fitting the three parameters of the log-Pearson type III distribution. These simulations demonstrate that EMA is more efficient than the Bulletin 17B method, and that it is nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The experiments also suggest that EMA has two advantages over MLE when dealing with the log-Pearson type III distribution: It appears that EMA estimates always exist and that they are unique, although neither result has been proven. EMA can be used with binomial or interval-censored data and with any distributional family amenable to method-of-moments estimation.

  14. A fully automatic tool to perform accurate flood mapping by merging remote sensing imagery and ancillary data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Addabbo, Annarita; Refice, Alberto; Lovergine, Francesco; Pasquariello, Guido

    2016-04-01

    Flooding is one of the most frequent and expansive natural hazard. High-resolution flood mapping is an essential step in the monitoring and prevention of inundation hazard, both to gain insight into the processes involved in the generation of flooding events, and from the practical point of view of the precise assessment of inundated areas. Remote sensing data are recognized to be useful in this respect, thanks to the high resolution and regular revisit schedules of state-of-the-art satellites, moreover offering a synoptic overview of the extent of flooding. In particular, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data present several favorable characteristics for flood mapping, such as their relative insensitivity to the meteorological conditions during acquisitions, as well as the possibility of acquiring independently of solar illumination, thanks to the active nature of the radar sensors [1]. However, flood scenarios are typical examples of complex situations in which different factors have to be considered to provide accurate and robust interpretation of the situation on the ground: the presence of many land cover types, each one with a particular signature in presence of flood, requires modelling the behavior of different objects in the scene in order to associate them to flood or no flood conditions [2]. Generally, the fusion of multi-temporal, multi-sensor, multi-resolution and/or multi-platform Earth observation image data, together with other ancillary information, seems to have a key role in the pursuit of a consistent interpretation of complex scenes. In the case of flooding, distance from the river, terrain elevation, hydrologic information or some combination thereof can add useful information to remote sensing data. Suitable methods, able to manage and merge different kind of data, are so particularly needed. In this work, a fully automatic tool, based on Bayesian Networks (BNs) [3] and able to perform data fusion, is presented. It supplies flood maps describing the dynamics of each analysed event, combining time series of images, acquired by different sensors, with ancillary information. Some experiments have been performed by combining multi-temporal SAR intensity images, InSAR coherence and optical data, with geomorphic and other ground information. The tool has been tested on different flood events occurred in the Basilicata region (Italy) during the last years, showing good capabilities of identification of a large area interested by the flood phenomenon, partially overcoming the obstacle constituted by the presence of scattering/coherence classes corresponding to different land cover types, which respond differently to the presence of water and to inundation evolution [1] A. Refice et al, IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing, vol. 7, no. 7, pp. 2711-2722, 2014. [2] L. Pulvirenti et al., IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens., Vol. PP, pp. 1- 13, 2015. [3] A. D'Addabbo et al., "A Bayesian Network for Flood Detection combining SAR Imagery and Ancillary Data," IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens., in press.

  15. Storm and flood of July 5, 1989, in northern New Castle County, Delaware

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Paulachok, G.N.; Simmons, R.H.; Tallman, A.J.

    1995-01-01

    On July 5, 1989, intense rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Storm Allison caused severe flooding in northern New Castle County, Delaware. The flooding claimed three lives, and damage was estimated to be $5 million. Flood conditions were aggravated locally by rapid runoff from expansive urban areas. Record- breaking floods occurred on many streams in northern New Castle County. Peak discharges at three active, continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, one active crest-stage station, and at two discontinued streamflow-gaging stations exceeded previously recorded maximums. Estimated recurrence intervals for peak flow at the three active, continuous-record streamflow stations exceeded 100 years. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted comprehensive post-flood surveys to determine peak water-surface elevations that occurred on affected streams and their tributaries during the flood of July 5, 1989. Detailed surveys were performed near bridge crossings to provide additional information on the extent and severity of the flooding and the effects of hydraulic constrictions on floodwaters.

  16. Urban Flood Management with Integrated Inland-River System in Seoul

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moon, Y. I.; Kim, J. S.; Yuk, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Global warming and climate change have caused significant damage and loss of life worldwide. The pattern of natural disasters has gradually diversified and their frequency is increasing. The impact of climate change on flood risk in urban rivers is of particular interest because these areas are typically densely populated. The occurrence of urban river flooding due to climate change not only causes significant loss of life and property but also causes health and social problems. It is therefore necessary to develop a scientific urban flood management system to cope with and reduce the impacts of climate change, including flood damage. In this study, we are going to introduce Integrated Inland-River Flood Analysis System in Seoul to conduct predictions on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and perform prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded areas. In addition, this urban flood management system can be used as a tool for decision making of systematic disaster prevention through real-time monitoring.

  17. Assessment on the pedestrian risk during floods based on numerical simulation - A case study in Jinan City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, T.; Xu, Z.; Hong, S.

    2017-12-01

    Flood disasters frequently attack the urban area in Jinan City during past years, and the city is faced with severe road flooding which greatly threaten pedestrians' safety. Therefore, it is of great significance to investigate the pedestrian risk during floods under specific topographic condition. In this study, a model coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic processes is developed in the study area to simulate the flood routing process on the road for the "7.18" rainstorm and validated with post-disaster damage survey information. The risk of pedestrian is estimated with a flood risk assessment model. The result shows that the coupled model performs well in the rainstorm flood process. On the basis of the simulation result, the areas with extreme risk, medium risk, and mild risk are identified, respectively. Regions with high risk are generally located near the mountain front area with steep slopes. This study will provide scientific support for the flood control and disaster reduction in Jinan City.

  18. The Effects of Saltwater Intrusion to Flood Mitigation Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azida Abu Bakar, Azinoor; Khairudin Khalil, Muhammad

    2018-03-01

    The objective of this study is to determine the effects of saltwater intrusion to flood mitigation project located in the flood plains in the district of Muar, Johor. Based on the studies and designs carried out, one of the effective flood mitigation options identified is the Kampung Tanjung Olak bypass and Kampung Belemang bypass at the lower reaches of Sungai Muar. But, the construction of the Kampung Belemang and Tanjung Olak bypass, while speeding up flood discharges, may also increase saltwater intrusion during drought low flows. Establishing the dynamics of flooding, including replicating the existing situation and the performance with prospective flood mitigation interventions, is most effectively accomplished using computer-based modelling tools. The finding of this study shows that to overcome the problem, a barrage should be constructed at Sungai Muar to solve the saltwater intrusion and low yield problem of the river.

  19. Flooding and the framing of risk in British broadsheets, 1985-2010.

    PubMed

    Escobar, Maria Paula; Demeritt, David

    2014-05-01

    Our analysis of 2707 news stories explores the framing of flooding in Britain over the past quarter century and the displacement of a once dominant understanding of flooding as an agricultural problem of land drainage by the contemporary concern for its urban impacts, particularly to homes and property. We document dramatic changes in the volume and variety of reporting about flooding since 2000 as the risks of flooding have become more salient, the informal 'Gentlemen's Agreement' between government and private insurers has broken down, and flood management subjected to greater public scrutiny. While the historic reliance on private insurance remains largely unchallenged, we show that other aspects of flood hazard management are now topics of active political debate to which the looming threat of climate change adds both urgency and exculpatory excuses for poor performance. We conclude by reflecting on the significance of the case for grand theories of neoliberalisation and governmentality.

  20. Improving flood risk mapping in Italy: the FloodRisk open-source software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Albano, Raffaele; Mancusi, Leonardo; Craciun, Iulia; Sole, Aurelia; Ozunu, Alexandru

    2017-04-01

    Time and again, floods around the world illustrate the devastating impact they can have on societies. Furthermore, the expectation that the flood damages can increase over time with climate, land-use change and social growth in flood prone-areas has raised the public and other stakeholders' (governments, international organization, re-insurance companies and emergency responders) awareness for the need to manage risks in order to mitigate their causes and consequences. In this light, the choice of appropriate measures, the assessment of the costs and effects of such measures, and their prioritization are crucial for decision makers. As a result, a priori flood risk assessment has become a key part of flood management practices with the aim of minimizing the total costs related to the risk management cycle. In this context, The EU Flood Directive 2007/60 requires the delineation of flood risk maps on the bases of most appropriate and advanced tools, with particular attention on limiting required economic efforts. The main aim of these risk maps is to provide the required knowledge for the development of flood risk management plans (FRMPs) by considering both costs and benefits of alternatives and results from consultation with all interested parties. In this context, this research project developed a free and open-source (FOSS) GIS software, called FloodRisk, to operatively support stakeholders in their compliance with the FRMPs. FloodRisk aims to facilitate the development of risk maps and the evaluation and management of current and future flood risk for multi-purpose applications. This new approach overcomes the limits of the expert-drive qualitative (EDQ) approach currently adopted in several European countries, such as Italy, which does not permit a suitable evaluation of the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies, because the vulnerability component cannot be properly assessed. Moreover, FloodRisk is also able to involve the citizens in the flood management process, enhancing their awareness. This FOSS approach can promotes transparency and accountability through a process of "guided discovery". Moreover, the immediacy with which information is presented by the qualitative flood risk map, can facilitate and speed up the process of knowledge acquisition. An application of FloodRisk model is showed on a pilot case in "Serio" Valley, (North Italy), and its strengths and limits, in terms of additional efforts required in its application compared with EDQ procedure, have been highlighted focusing on the utility of the results provided for the development of FRMPs. Although they still present limits which prevent the FloodRisk application without critically consider the peculiarities of the investigated area in terms of available knowledge on hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the proposed approach surely produces an increase in available knowledge of flood risk and its drivers. This further information cannot be neglected for defining risk mitigation objectives and strategies. Hence, considering the ongoing efforts in the improvement of data availability and quality, FloodRisk could be a suitable tool for the next revision of flood risk maps due by December 2019, supporting effectively Italian and EU practitioners in the delineation of FRMPs (and for flood risk management in general).

  1. Flood Hazards: Communicating Hydrology and Complexity to the Public

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmes, R. R.; Blanchard, S. F.; Mason, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    Floods have a major impact on society and the environment. Since 1952, approximately 1,233 of 1,931 (64%) Federal disaster declarations were due directly to flooding, with an additional 297 due to hurricanes which had associated flooding. Although the overall average annual number of deaths due to flooding has decreased in the United States, the average annual flood damage is rising. According to the Munich Reinsurance Company in their publication “Schadenspiegel 3/2005”, during 1990s the world experienced as much as $500 billion in economic losses due to floods, highlighting the serious need for continued emphasis on flood-loss prevention measures. Flood-loss prevention has two major elements: mitigation (including structural flood-control measures and land-use planning and regulation) and risk awareness. Of the two, increasing risk awareness likely offers the most potential for protecting lives over the near-term and long-term sustainability in the coming years. Flood-risk awareness and risk-aware behavior is dependent on communication, involving both prescriptive and educational measures. Prescriptive measures (for example, flood warnings and stormwater ordinances) are and have been effective, but there is room for improvement. New communications technologies, particularly social media utilizing mobile, smart phones and text devices, for example, could play a significant role in increasing public awareness of long-term risk and near-term flood conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), for example, the Federal agency that monitors the Nation’s rivers, recently released a new service that can better connect the to the public to information about flood hazards. The new service, WaterAlert (URL: http://water.usgs.gov/wateralert/), allows users to set flood notification thresholds of their own choosing for any USGS real-time streamgage. The system then sends emails or text messages to subscribers whenever the threshold conditions are met, as often as the user specifies. In the future, with new GPS enabled cell-phones, notifications could be sent to users based on their proximity to flood hazards. Educational measures also should communicate the hydrologic underpinnings and uncertainties of the complex science of flood hydrology in an understandable manner to a non-technical public. Education can be especially beneficial and important for those in a policy-making role or those who find themselves in an area of potential flood hazards. Case studies, such as the fatal June 11, 2010 flash flood on the Little Missouri River in Arkansas, if presented in a way that the public will absorb, powerfully illustrate the importance of flood hazard awareness and the cost of living unaware. Additionally, such crucial points as the connection between the accuracy of flood-probability estimates and the density (and longevity) of the basic data sources (such as the USGS streamgage or the National Weather Service raingage networks) and the residual risks that both communities and individuals face have to continually be stressed to the general public and policy makers alike. In short, success in flood hazards communication (both prescriptive warnings and education) requires a fusion of the social sciences and hydrology.

  2. Urban pluvial flood prediction: a case study evaluating radar rainfall nowcasts and numerical weather prediction models as model inputs.

    PubMed

    Thorndahl, Søren; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-12-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events - especially in the future climate - it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically, both historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper, radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0-2 h leadtime, and numerical weather models with leadtimes up to 24 h are used as inputs to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on the small town of Lystrup in Denmark, which was flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution radar rainfall data, but rather limited forecast performance in predicting floods with leadtimes more than half an hour.

  3. A global classification of coastal flood hazard climates associated with large-scale oceanographic forcing.

    PubMed

    Rueda, Ana; Vitousek, Sean; Camus, Paula; Tomás, Antonio; Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Inigo J; Barnard, Patrick L; Erikson, Li H; Ruggiero, Peter; Reguero, Borja G; Mendez, Fernando J

    2017-07-11

    Coastal communities throughout the world are exposed to numerous and increasing threats, such as coastal flooding and erosion, saltwater intrusion and wetland degradation. Here, we present the first global-scale analysis of the main drivers of coastal flooding due to large-scale oceanographic factors. Given the large dimensionality of the problem (e.g. spatiotemporal variability in flood magnitude and the relative influence of waves, tides and surge levels), we have performed a computer-based classification to identify geographical areas with homogeneous climates. Results show that 75% of coastal regions around the globe have the potential for very large flooding events with low probabilities (unbounded tails), 82% are tide-dominated, and almost 49% are highly susceptible to increases in flooding frequency due to sea-level rise.

  4. A holistic approach for large-scale derived flood frequency analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dung Nguyen, Viet; Apel, Heiko; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Sergiy, Vorogushyn; Merz, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    Spatial consistency, which has been usually disregarded because of the reported methodological difficulties, is increasingly demanded in regional flood hazard (and risk) assessments. This study aims at developing a holistic approach for deriving flood frequency at large scale consistently. A large scale two-component model has been established for simulating very long-term multisite synthetic meteorological fields and flood flow at many gauged and ungauged locations hence reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The model has been applied for the region of nearly a half million km2 including Germany and parts of nearby countries. The model performance has been multi-objectively examined with a focus on extreme. By this continuous simulation approach, flood quantiles for the studied region have been derived successfully and provide useful input for a comprehensive flood risk study.

  5. Integrated flood hazard assessment based on spatial ordered weighted averaging method considering spatial heterogeneity of risk preference.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Yangfan; Yi, Shanzhen; Tang, Zhongqian

    2017-12-01

    Flood is the most common natural hazard in the world and has caused serious loss of life and property. Assessment of flood prone areas is of great importance for watershed management and reduction of potential loss of life and property. In this study, a framework of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) incorporating geographic information system (GIS), fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and spatial ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method was developed for flood hazard assessment. The factors associated with geographical, hydrological and flood-resistant characteristics of the basin were selected as evaluation criteria. The relative importance of the criteria was estimated through fuzzy AHP method. The OWA method was utilized to analyze the effects of different risk attitudes of the decision maker on the assessment result. The spatial ordered weighted averaging method with spatially variable risk preference was implemented in the GIS environment to integrate the criteria. The advantage of the proposed method is that it has considered spatial heterogeneity in assigning risk preference in the decision-making process. The presented methodology has been applied to the area including Hanyang, Caidian and Hannan of Wuhan, China, where flood events occur frequently. The outcome of flood hazard distribution presents a tendency of high risk towards populated and developed areas, especially the northeast part of Hanyang city, which has suffered frequent floods in history. The result indicates where the enhancement projects should be carried out first under the condition of limited resources. Finally, sensitivity of the criteria weights was analyzed to measure the stability of results with respect to the variation of the criteria weights. The flood hazard assessment method presented in this paper is adaptable for hazard assessment of a similar basin, which is of great significance to establish counterplan to mitigate life and property losses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Sediment - Water Exchange of Mercury in a Managed Flood Conveyance System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heim, W. A.; Stephenson, M.; Negrey, J.; Gill, G. A.; Coale, K. H.; DiGiorgio, C.; Harris, R. C.

    2016-12-01

    Yolo Bypass is the largest flood bypass in the Sacramento Valley, California. During high flow flood events water is diverted into the Yolo Bypass from the Sacramento River to control river stage and protect the cities of Sacramento, West Sacramento, and Davis from flooding. Climate change projections for the Yolo Bypass indicate the risk of flooding will increase. An increase in flooding would result in increased connectivity of the flood plain with downstream habitats as well as provide conditions favorable for in situ production of methylmercury (MeHg). Conversion of inorganic mercury (Hg) to the more toxic organic form MeHg in freshwater systems is generally accepted to be mediated by bacteria activity. There are a number of environmental variables (organic carbon, sulfate, oxygen) and conditions (temperature, porosity, soil type) that could influence the net production of MeHg and its ultimate release into the water column. This study investigated sediment-water exchange of both Hg and MeHg from the following habitat types in the Yolo Bypass: wild rice, white rice, seasonal wetlands, irrigated pasture, non-irrigated pasture, fallow land, farm land, freshwater tidal wetland, and agricultural drain. Two methods were used to determine sediment-water exchange of inorganic and organic mercury; first a direct assessment using incubated cores and second, modeling the sediment-water exchange from measurements of interstitial pore water concentration gradients. Results indicate habitat type, land use, and flooding influence Hg and MeHg fluxes. If flooding frequency increases in the Yolo Bypass mercury fluxes are expected to increase resulting in an increase in Hg load to downstream habitats and an increase in biotic exposure to MeHg in the system. A next step will be to utilize data generated from this study in the Dynamic Mercury Cycling Model (D-MCM) which will be used to improve our understanding of factors controlling production and transport of Hg and MeHg in the Yolo Bypass.

  7. New mechanism under International Flood Initiative toward robustness for flood management in the Asia Pacific region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murase, M.; Yoshitani, J.; Takeuchi, K.; Koike, T.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is likely to result in increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events. It is imperative that a good understanding is developed of how climate change affects the events that are reflected in hydrological extremes such as floods and how practitioners in water resources management deal with them. Since there is still major uncertainty as to how the impact of climate change affect actual water resources management, it is important to build robustness into management schemes and communities. Flood management under such variety of uncertainty favors the flexible and adaptive implementation both in top-down and bottom-up approaches. The former uses projections of global or spatially downscaled models to drive resource models and project resource impacts. The latter utilizes policy or planning tools to identify what changes in climate would be most threatening to their long-range operations. Especially for the bottom-up approaches, it is essential to identify the gap between what should be done and what has not been achieved for disaster risks. Indicators or index are appropriate tools to measure such gaps, but they are still in progress to cover the whole world. The International Flood Initiative (IFI), initiated in January 2005 by UNESCO and WMO in close cooperation with UNU and ISDR, IAHS and IAHR, has promoted an integrated approach to flood management to take advantage of floods and use of flood plains while reducing the social, environmental and economic risks. Its secretariat is located in ICHARM. The initiative objective is to support national platforms to practice evidence-based disaster risk reduction through mobilizing scientific and research networks at national, regional and international levels. The initiative is now preparing for a new mechanism to facilitate the integrated approach for flood management on the ground regionally in the Asia Pacific (IFI-AP) through monitoring, assessment and capacity building.

  8. A high-resolution physically-based global flood hazard map

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaheil, Y.; Begnudelli, L.; McCollum, J.

    2016-12-01

    We present the results from a physically-based global flood hazard model. The model uses a physically-based hydrologic model to simulate river discharges, and 2D hydrodynamic model to simulate inundation. The model is set up such that it allows the application of large-scale flood hazard through efficient use of parallel computing. For hydrology, we use the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model. HRR accounts for surface hydrology using Green-Ampt parameterization. The model is calibrated against observed discharge data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) network, among other publicly-available datasets. The parallel-computing framework takes advantage of the river network structure to minimize cross-processor messages, and thus significantly increases computational efficiency. For inundation, we implemented a computationally-efficient 2D finite-volume model with wetting/drying. The approach consists of simulating flood along the river network by forcing the hydraulic model with the streamflow hydrographs simulated by HRR, and scaled up to certain return levels, e.g. 100 years. The model is distributed such that each available processor takes the next simulation. Given an approximate criterion, the simulations are ordered from most-demanding to least-demanding to ensure that all processors finalize almost simultaneously. Upon completing all simulations, the maximum envelope of flood depth is taken to generate the final map. The model is applied globally, with selected results shown from different continents and regions. The maps shown depict flood depth and extent at different return periods. These maps, which are currently available at 3 arc-sec resolution ( 90m) can be made available at higher resolutions where high resolution DEMs are available. The maps can be utilized by flood risk managers at the national, regional, and even local levels to further understand their flood risk exposure, exercise certain measures of mitigation, and/or transfer the residual risk financially through flood insurance programs.

  9. Quantifying the Influence of Urbanization on a Coastal Floodplain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sebastian, A.; Juan, A.; Bedient, P. B.

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Gulf Coast is the fastest growing region in the United States; between 1960 and 2010, the number of housing units along the Gulf of Mexico increased by 246%, vastly outpacing growth in other parts of the country (NOAA 2013). Numerous studies have shown that increases in impervious surface associated with urbanization reduce infiltration and increase surface runoff. While empirical evidence suggests that changes in land use are leading to increased flood damage in overland areas, earlier studies have largely focused on the impacts of urbanization on surface runoff and watershed hydrology, rather than quantifying its influence on the spatial extent of flooding. In this study, we conduct a longitudinal assessment of the evolution of flood risk since 1970 in an urbanizing coastal watershed. Utilizing the distributed hydrologic model, Vflo®, in combination with the hydraulic model, HEC-RAS, we quantify the impact of localized land use/land cover (LULC) change on the spatial extent of flooding in the watershed and the underlying flood hazard structure. The results demonstrate that increases in impervious cover between 1970 and 2010 (34%) and 2010 and 2040 (18%) increase the size of the floodplain by 26 and 17%, respectively. Furthermore, the results indicate that the depth and frequency of flooding in neighborhoods within the 1% floodplain have increased substantially (see attached figure). Finally, this analysis provides evidence that outdated FEMA floodplain maps could be underestimating the extent of the floodplain by upwards of 25%, depending on the rate of urbanization in the watershed; and, that by incorporating physics-based distributed hydrologic models into floodplain studies, floodplain maps can be easily updated to reflect the most recent LULC information available. The methods presented in this study have important implications for the development of mitigation strategies in coastal areas, such as deterring future development in flood prone areas and directing flood mitigation efforts in already flood prone communities. ReferencesNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (2013). National Coastal Population Report: Population Trends from 1970 to 2020.

  10. User's guide to SSARRMENU

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mastin, M.C.; Le, Thanh

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Pierce County Department of Public Works, Washington, has developed an operational tool called the Puyallup Flood-Alert System to alert users of impending floods in the Puyallup River Basin. The system acquires and incorporates meteorological and hydrological data into the Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) hydrologic flow-routing model to simulate floods in the Puyallup River Basin. SSARRMENU is the user-interactive graphical interface between the user, the input and output data, and the SSARR model. In a companion cooperative project with Pierce County, the SSARR model for the Puyallup River Basin was calibrated and validated. The calibrated model is accessed through SSARRMENU, which has been specifically programed for the Puyallup River and the needs of Pierce County. SSARRMENU automates the retrieval of data from ADAPS (Automated DAta Processing System, the U.S. Geological Survey?s real-time hydrologic database), formats the data for use with SSARR, initiates SSARR model runs, displays alerts for impending floods, and provides utilities to display the simulated and observed data. An on-screen map of the basin and a series of menu items provide the user wi

  11. Probabilistic mapping of flood-induced backscatter changes in SAR time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlaffer, Stefan; Chini, Marco; Giustarini, Laura; Matgen, Patrick

    2017-04-01

    The information content of flood extent maps can be increased considerably by including information on the uncertainty of the flood area delineation. This additional information can be of benefit in flood forecasting and monitoring. Furthermore, flood probability maps can be converted to binary maps showing flooded and non-flooded areas by applying a threshold probability value pF = 0.5. In this study, a probabilistic change detection approach for flood mapping based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time series is proposed. For this purpose, conditional probability density functions (PDFs) for land and open water surfaces were estimated from ENVISAT ASAR Wide Swath (WS) time series containing >600 images using a reference mask of permanent water bodies. A pixel-wise harmonic model was used to account for seasonality in backscatter from land areas caused by soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The approach was evaluated for a large-scale flood event along the River Severn, United Kingdom. The retrieved flood probability maps were compared to a reference flood mask derived from high-resolution aerial imagery by means of reliability diagrams. The obtained performance measures indicate both high reliability and confidence although there was a slight under-estimation of the flood extent, which may in part be attributed to topographically induced radar shadows along the edges of the floodplain. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of local incidence angle for the separability between flooded and non-flooded areas as specular reflection properties of open water surfaces increase with a more oblique viewing geometry.

  12. Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

    2015-12-01

    The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

  13. 7 CFR 622.2 - Scope.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ..., water quality management, ground water supply, agricultural pollution control, and other water management. (d) After a final plan for works of improvement is agreed upon between NRCS and the sponsors and... proper utilization of land, flood prevention, agricultural water management including irrigation and...

  14. Keep the Rain Where It Belongs with Porous Pavement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    American School and University, 1979

    1979-01-01

    Paved roads and parking lots have contributed to present and projected shortages of fresh water as well as to problems of flash floods. The utilization of porous asphalt paving can help prevent decreasing the reserves of ground water. (Author/MLF)

  15. A framework for multivariate data-based at-site flood frequency analysis: Essentiality of the conjugal application of parametric and nonparametric approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vittal, H.; Singh, Jitendra; Kumar, Pankaj; Karmakar, Subhankar

    2015-06-01

    In watershed management, flood frequency analysis (FFA) is performed to quantify the risk of flooding at different spatial locations and also to provide guidelines for determining the design periods of flood control structures. The traditional FFA was extensively performed by considering univariate scenario for both at-site and regional estimation of return periods. However, due to inherent mutual dependence of the flood variables or characteristics [i.e., peak flow (P), flood volume (V) and flood duration (D), which are random in nature], analysis has been further extended to multivariate scenario, with some restrictive assumptions. To overcome the assumption of same family of marginal density function for all flood variables, the concept of copula has been introduced. Although, the advancement from univariate to multivariate analyses drew formidable attention to the FFA research community, the basic limitation was that the analyses were performed with the implementation of only parametric family of distributions. The aim of the current study is to emphasize the importance of nonparametric approaches in the field of multivariate FFA; however, the nonparametric distribution may not always be a good-fit and capable of replacing well-implemented multivariate parametric and multivariate copula-based applications. Nevertheless, the potential of obtaining best-fit using nonparametric distributions might be improved because such distributions reproduce the sample's characteristics, resulting in more accurate estimations of the multivariate return period. Hence, the current study shows the importance of conjugating multivariate nonparametric approach with multivariate parametric and copula-based approaches, thereby results in a comprehensive framework for complete at-site FFA. Although the proposed framework is designed for at-site FFA, this approach can also be applied to regional FFA because regional estimations ideally include at-site estimations. The framework is based on the following steps: (i) comprehensive trend analysis to assess nonstationarity in the observed data; (ii) selection of the best-fit univariate marginal distribution with a comprehensive set of parametric and nonparametric distributions for the flood variables; (iii) multivariate frequency analyses with parametric, copula-based and nonparametric approaches; and (iv) estimation of joint and various conditional return periods. The proposed framework for frequency analysis is demonstrated using 110 years of observed data from Allegheny River at Salamanca, New York, USA. The results show that for both univariate and multivariate cases, the nonparametric Gaussian kernel provides the best estimate. Further, we perform FFA for twenty major rivers over continental USA, which shows for seven rivers, all the flood variables followed nonparametric Gaussian kernel; whereas for other rivers, parametric distributions provide the best-fit either for one or two flood variables. Thus the summary of results shows that the nonparametric method cannot substitute the parametric and copula-based approaches, but should be considered during any at-site FFA to provide the broadest choices for best estimation of the flood return periods.

  16. Land cover change impact on urban flood modeling (case study: Upper Citarum watershed)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-03-01

    The upper Citarum River watershed utilizes remote sensing technology in Geographic Information System to provide information on land coverage by interpretation of objects in the image. Rivers that pass through urban areas will cause flooding problems causing disadvantages, and it disrupts community activities in the urban area. Increased development in a city is related to an increase in the number of population growth that added by increasing quality and quantity of life necessities. Improved urban lifestyle changes have an impact on land cover. The impact in over time will be difficult to control. This study aims to analyze the condition of flooding in urban areas caused by upper Citarum watershed land-use change in 2001 with the land cover change in 2010. This modeling analyzes with the help of HEC-RAS to describe flooded inundation urban areas. Land cover change in upper Citarum watershed is not very significant; it based on the results of data processing of land cover has the difference of area that changed is not enormous. Land cover changes for the floods increased dramatically to a flow coefficient for 2001 is 0.65 and in 2010 at 0.69. In 2001, the inundation area about 105,468 hectares and it were about 92,289 hectares in 2010.

  17. Predicting morphological changes DS New Naga-Hammadi Barrage for extreme Nile flood flows: A Monte Carlo analysis

    PubMed Central

    Sattar, Ahmed M.A.; Raslan, Yasser M.

    2013-01-01

    While construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD) has stopped concurrent flooding events, River Nile is still subject to low intensity flood waves resulting from controlled release of water from the dam reservoir. Analysis of flow released from New Naga-Hammadi Barrage, which is located at 3460 km downstream AHD indicated an increase in magnitude of flood released from the barrage in the past 10 years. A 2D numerical mobile bed model is utilized to investigate the possible morphological changes in the downstream of Naga-Hammadi Barrage from possible higher flood releases. Monte Carlo simulation analyses (MCS) is applied to the deterministic results of the 2D model to account for and assess the uncertainty of sediment parameters and formulations in addition to sacristy of field measurements. Results showed that the predicted volume of erosion yielded the highest uncertainty and variation from deterministic run, while navigation velocity yielded the least uncertainty. Furthermore, the error budget method is used to rank various sediment parameters for their contribution in the total prediction uncertainty. It is found that the suspended sediment contributed to output uncertainty more than other sediment parameters followed by bed load with 10% less order of magnitude. PMID:25685476

  18. Hydrologic effects of hypothetical earthquake-caused floods below Jackson Lake, northwestern Wyoming

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Glass, W.R.; Keefer, T.N.; Rankl, J.G.

    1976-01-01

    Jackson Lake, located in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, is in an area of seismic instability. There is a possibility of flooding in the Snake River downstream from Jackson Lake Dam in the event of a severe earthquake. Hypothetical floods were routed 38 miles (61 kilometers) downstream from the dam for three cases: (1) Instantaneous destruction of the dam outlet structure, (2) instantaneous destruction of the entire dam, and (3) for waves overtopping the dam without failure of the dam. In each case, a full reservoir was assumed. Hydrographs for outflow from the reservoir for the two cases of dam failure were developed utilizing an accelerated discharge due to the travel of a negative wave through the reservoir, and Muskingum storage routing. For the case of waves overtopping the dam, a 10-foot (3-meter) wave was assumed to be propagated from the upstream end of the reservori. A multiple-linearization technique was used to route the flow through the reach. The model was calibrated from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow records. Most extensive flooding and largest water velocities would occur if the entire dam were destroyed; floods for the other two cases were smaller. An inundation map was prepared from channel conveyance curves and profiles of the water surface. (Woodard-USGS)

  19. Novel flood risk assessment framework for rapid decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valyrakis, Manousos; Koursari, Eftychia; Solley, Mark

    2016-04-01

    The impacts of catastrophic flooding, have significantly increased over the last few decades. This is due to primarily the increased urbanisation in ever-expanding mega-cities as well as due to the intensification both in magnitude and frequency of extreme hydrologic events. Herein a novel conceptual framework is presented that incorporates the use of real-time information to inform and update low dimensionality hydraulic models, to allow for rapid decision making towards preventing loss of life and safeguarding critical infrastructure. In particular, a case study from the recent UK floods in the area of Whitesands (Dumfries), is presented to demonstrate the utility of this approach. It is demonstrated that effectively combining a wealth of readily available qualitative information (such as crowdsourced visual documentation or using live data from sensing techniques), with existing quantitative data, can help appropriately update hydraulic models and reduce modelling uncertainties in future flood risk assessments. This approach is even more useful in cases where hydraulic models are limited, do not exist or were not needed before unpredicted dynamic modifications to the river system took place (for example in the case of reduced or eliminated hydraulic capacity due to blockages). The low computational cost and rapid assessment this framework offers, render it promising for innovating in flood management.

  20. Predicting morphological changes DS New Naga-Hammadi Barrage for extreme Nile flood flows: A Monte Carlo analysis.

    PubMed

    Sattar, Ahmed M A; Raslan, Yasser M

    2014-01-01

    While construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD) has stopped concurrent flooding events, River Nile is still subject to low intensity flood waves resulting from controlled release of water from the dam reservoir. Analysis of flow released from New Naga-Hammadi Barrage, which is located at 3460 km downstream AHD indicated an increase in magnitude of flood released from the barrage in the past 10 years. A 2D numerical mobile bed model is utilized to investigate the possible morphological changes in the downstream of Naga-Hammadi Barrage from possible higher flood releases. Monte Carlo simulation analyses (MCS) is applied to the deterministic results of the 2D model to account for and assess the uncertainty of sediment parameters and formulations in addition to sacristy of field measurements. Results showed that the predicted volume of erosion yielded the highest uncertainty and variation from deterministic run, while navigation velocity yielded the least uncertainty. Furthermore, the error budget method is used to rank various sediment parameters for their contribution in the total prediction uncertainty. It is found that the suspended sediment contributed to output uncertainty more than other sediment parameters followed by bed load with 10% less order of magnitude.

  1. New version of 1 km global river flood hazard maps for the next generation of Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Bierkens, Marc

    2017-04-01

    The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer, launched in 2015, is an open-access and free-of-charge web-based interactive platform which assesses and visualises current and future projections of river flood impacts across the globe. One of the key components in the Analyzer is a set of river flood inundation hazard maps derived from the global hydrological model simulation of PCR-GLOBWB. For the current version of the Analyzer, accessible on http://floods.wri.org/#/, the early generation of PCR-GLOBWB 1.0 was used and simulated at 30 arc-minute ( 50 km at the equator) resolution. In this presentation, we will show the new version of these hazard maps. This new version is based on the latest version of PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 (https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model, Sutanudjaja et al., 2016, doi:10.5281/zenodo.60764) simulated at 5 arc-minute ( 10 km at the equator) resolution. The model simulates daily hydrological and water resource fluxes and storages, including the simulation of overbank volume that ends up on the floodplain (if flooding occurs). The simulation was performed for the present day situation (from 1960) and future climate projections (until 2099) using the climate forcing created in the ISI-MIP project. From the simulated flood inundation volume time series, we then extract annual maxima for each cell, and fit these maxima to a Gumbel extreme value distribution. This allows us to derive flood volume maps of any hazard magnitude (ranging from 2-year to 1000-year flood events) and for any time period (e.g. 1960-1999, 2010-2049, 2030-2069, and 2060-2099). The derived flood volumes (at 5 arc-minute resolution) are then spread over the high resolution terrain model using an updated GLOFRIS downscaling module (Winsemius et al., 2013, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013). The updated version performs a volume spreading sequentially from more upstream basins to downstream basins, hence enabling a better inclusion of smaller streams, and takes into account spreading of water over diverging deltaic regions. This results in a set of high resolution hazard maps of flood inundation depth at 30 arc-second ( 1 km at the equator) resolution. Together with many other updates and new features, the resulting flood hazard maps will be used in the next generation of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer.

  2. A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiemig, Vera; Bisselink, Bernard; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions of the ECMWF and critical hydrological thresholds. In this study the predictive capability is investigated, to estimate AFFS' potential as an operational flood forecasting system for the whole of Africa. This is done in a hindcast mode, by reproducing pan-African hydrological predictions for the whole year of 2003 where important flood events were observed. Results were analysed in two ways, each with its individual objective. The first part of the analysis is of paramount importance for the assessment of AFFS as a flood forecasting system, as it focuses on the detection and prediction of flood events. Here, results were verified with reports of various flood archives such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory, the Emergency Event Database, the NASA Earth Observatory and Reliefweb. The number of hits, false alerts and missed alerts as well as the Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate and Critical Success Index were determined for various conditions (different regions, flood durations, average amount of annual precipitations, size of affected areas and mean annual discharge). The second part of the analysis complements the first by giving a basic insight into the prediction skill of the general streamflow. For this, hydrological predictions were compared against observations at 36 key locations across Africa and the Continuous Rank Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), the limit of predictability and reliability were calculated. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. Also the forecasts showed on average a good reliability, and the CRPSS helped identifying regions to focus on for future improvements. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe and Mozambique) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a good prospective as an operational system, as it has demonstrated its significant potential to contribute to the reduction of flood-related losses in Africa by providing national and international aid organizations timely with medium-range flood forecast information. However, issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

  3. Nitrogen dynamics in flooded soil systems: an overview on concepts and performance of models

    PubMed Central

    Nurulhuda, Khairudin; Gaydon, Donald S; Jing, Qi; Zakaria, Mohamad P; Struik, Paul C

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Extensive modelling studies on nitrogen (N) dynamics in flooded soil systems have been published. Consequently, many N dynamics models are available for users to select from. With the current research trend, inclined towards multidisciplinary research, and with substantial progress in understanding of N dynamics in flooded soil systems, the objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the modelling concepts and performance of 14 models developed to simulate N dynamics in flooded soil systems. This overview provides breadth of knowledge on the models, and, therefore, is valuable as a first step in the selection of an appropriate model for a specific application. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. PMID:28940491

  4. Incidence of and risk factors for musculoskeletal symptoms in the neck and low-back during severe flooding in Bangkok in 2011.

    PubMed

    Sihawong, Rattaporn; Janwantanakul, Prawit; Pensri, Praneet

    2012-07-01

    To examine whether the incidences of neck and low-back symptoms were elevated during the severe floods that occurred in Bangkok, Thailand in 2011, and to explore flood-related risk factors for neck and low-back symptoms. Prospective cohort design. Severe flooding occurred in Bangkok and surrounding neighbourhoods between October and December, 2011. After the flood had subsided (January 2012), 377 healthy office workers, who were already taking part in a study on musculoskeletal symptoms, were asked about their contact with floodwater. Data were gathered from subjects, who had reported no neck and low-back symptoms at the end of September 2011 and who were affected by the flood. Two regression models for the outcomes of 3-month incidence of neck and low-back symptoms, respectively, were performed. Eighty-two percent of the subjects were affected by the flood. No flood-related factor was found to associate significantly with either neck or low-back symptoms. However, neck symptoms may be associated with commuting frequently through flooded areas, and low-back symptoms may be associated with the subjects' homes or workplaces being flooded. These findings indicate that more attention needs to be paid to the problem of musculoskeletal symptoms during flooding in urban areas, and that preventive measures are required.

  5. Assessing the performance of remotely-sensed flooding indicators and their potential contribution to early warning for leptospirosis in Cambodia

    PubMed Central

    Ledien, Julia; Sorn, Sopheak; Hem, Sopheak; Huy, Rekol; Buchy, Philippe

    2017-01-01

    Remote sensing can contribute to early warning for diseases with environmental drivers, such as flooding for leptospirosis. In this study we assessed whether and which remotely-sensed flooding indicator could be used in Cambodia to study any disease for which flooding has already been identified as an important driver, using leptospirosis as a case study. The performance of six potential flooding indicators was assessed by ground truthing. The Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) was used to estimate the Risk Ratio (RR) of being infected by leptospirosis when exposed to floods it detected, in particular during the rainy season. Chi-square tests were also calculated. Another variable—the time elapsed since the first flooding of the year—was created using MNDWI values and was also included as explanatory variable in a generalized linear model (GLM) and in a boosted regression tree model (BRT) of leptospirosis infections, along with other explanatory variables. Interestingly, MNDWI thresholds for both detecting water and predicting the risk of leptospirosis seroconversion were independently evaluated at -0.3. Value of MNDWI greater than -0.3 was significantly related to leptospirosis infection (RR = 1.61 [1.10–1.52]; χ2 = 5.64, p-value = 0.02, especially during the rainy season (RR = 2.03 [1.25–3.28]; χ2 = 8.15, p-value = 0.004). Time since the first flooding of the year was a significant risk factor in our GLM model (p-value = 0.042). These results suggest that MNDWI may be useful as a risk indicator in an early warning remote sensing tool for flood-driven diseases like leptospirosis in South East Asia. PMID:28704461

  6. Assessing the performance of remotely-sensed flooding indicators and their potential contribution to early warning for leptospirosis in Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Ledien, Julia; Sorn, Sopheak; Hem, Sopheak; Huy, Rekol; Buchy, Philippe; Tarantola, Arnaud; Cappelle, Julien

    2017-01-01

    Remote sensing can contribute to early warning for diseases with environmental drivers, such as flooding for leptospirosis. In this study we assessed whether and which remotely-sensed flooding indicator could be used in Cambodia to study any disease for which flooding has already been identified as an important driver, using leptospirosis as a case study. The performance of six potential flooding indicators was assessed by ground truthing. The Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) was used to estimate the Risk Ratio (RR) of being infected by leptospirosis when exposed to floods it detected, in particular during the rainy season. Chi-square tests were also calculated. Another variable-the time elapsed since the first flooding of the year-was created using MNDWI values and was also included as explanatory variable in a generalized linear model (GLM) and in a boosted regression tree model (BRT) of leptospirosis infections, along with other explanatory variables. Interestingly, MNDWI thresholds for both detecting water and predicting the risk of leptospirosis seroconversion were independently evaluated at -0.3. Value of MNDWI greater than -0.3 was significantly related to leptospirosis infection (RR = 1.61 [1.10-1.52]; χ2 = 5.64, p-value = 0.02, especially during the rainy season (RR = 2.03 [1.25-3.28]; χ2 = 8.15, p-value = 0.004). Time since the first flooding of the year was a significant risk factor in our GLM model (p-value = 0.042). These results suggest that MNDWI may be useful as a risk indicator in an early warning remote sensing tool for flood-driven diseases like leptospirosis in South East Asia.

  7. Flood damage estimation of companies: A comparison of Stage-Damage-Functions and Random Forests

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sieg, Tobias; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

    2017-04-01

    The development of appropriate flood damage models plays an important role not only for the damage assessment after an event but also to develop adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. So called Stage-Damage-Functions (SDFs) are often applied as a standard approach to estimate flood damage. These functions assign a certain damage to the water depth depending on the use or other characteristics of the exposed objects. Recent studies apply machine learning algorithms like Random Forests (RFs) to model flood damage. These algorithms usually consider more influencing variables and promise to depict a more detailed insight into the damage processes. In addition they provide an inherent validation scheme. Our study focuses on direct, tangible damage of single companies. The objective is to model and validate the flood damage suffered by single companies with SDFs and RFs. The data sets used are taken from two surveys conducted after the floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in the years 2002 and 2013 in Germany. Damage to buildings (n = 430), equipment (n = 651) as well as goods and stock (n = 530) are taken into account. The model outputs are validated via a comparison with the actual flood damage acquired by the surveys and subsequently compared with each other. This study investigates the gain in model performance with the use of additional data and the advantages and disadvantages of the RFs compared to SDFs. RFs show an increase in model performance with an increasing amount of data records over a comparatively large range, while the model performance of the SDFs is already saturated for a small set of records. In addition, the RFs are able to identify damage influencing variables, which improves the understanding of damage processes. Hence, RFs can slightly improve flood damage predictions and provide additional insight into the underlying mechanisms compared to SDFs.

  8. Analysis of flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Roland, Mark A.; Stuckey, Marla H.

    2007-01-01

    The Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins in Pennsylvania experienced severe flooding as a result of intense rainfall during June 2006. The height of the flood waters on the rivers and tributaries approached or exceeded the peak of record at many locations. Updated flood-magnitude and flood-frequency data for streamflow-gaging stations on tributaries in the Delaware and North Branch Susquehanna River Basins were analyzed using data through the 2006 water year to determine if there were any major differences in the flood-discharge data. Flood frequencies for return intervals of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500 years (Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, Q100, and Q500) were determined from annual maximum series (AMS) data from continuous-record gaging stations (stations) and were compared to flood discharges obtained from previously published Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) and to flood frequencies using partial-duration series (PDS) data. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test was performed to determine any statistically significant differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS. Percentage differences between flood frequencies computed from updated AMS station data and those obtained from FIS also were determined for the 10, 50, 100, and 500 return intervals. A Mann-Kendall trend test was performed to determine statistically significant trends in the updated AMS peak-flow data for the period of record at the 41 stations. In addition to AMS station data, PDS data were used to determine flood-frequency discharges. The AMS and PDS flood-frequency data were compared to determine any differences between the two data sets. An analysis also was performed on AMS-derived flood frequencies for four stations to evaluate the possible effects of flood-control reservoirs on peak flows. Additionally, flood frequencies for three stations were evaluated to determine possible effects of urbanization on peak flows. The results of the Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed a significant difference at the 95-percent confidence level between the Q100 computed from AMS station data and the Q100 determined from previously published FIS for 97 sites. The flood-frequency discharges computed from AMS station data were consistently larger than the flood discharges from the FIS; mean percentage difference between the two data sets ranged from 14 percent for the Q100 to 20 percent for the Q50. The results of the Mann-Kendall test showed that 8 stations exhibited a positive trend (i.e., increasing annual maximum peaks over time) over their respective periods of record at the 95-percent confidence level, and an additional 7 stations indicated a positive trend, for a total of 15 stations, at a confidence level of greater than or equal to 90 percent. The Q2, Q5, Q10, Q50, and Q100 determined from AMS and PDS data for each station were compared by percentage. The flood magnitudes for the 2-year return period were 16 percent higher when partial-duration peaks were incorporated into the analyses, as opposed to using only the annual maximum peaks. The discharges then tended to converge around the 5-year return period, with a mean collective difference of only 1 percent. At the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return periods, the flood magnitudes based on annual maximum peaks were, on average, 6 percent higher compared to corresponding flood magnitudes based on partial-duration peaks. Possible effects on flood peaks from flood-control reservoirs and urban development within the basin also were examined. Annual maximum peak-flow data from four stations were divided into pre- and post-regulation periods. Comparisons were made between the Q100 determined from AMS station data for the periods of record pre- and post-regulation. Two stations showed a nearly 60- and 20-percent reduction in the 100-year discharges; the other two stations showed negligible differences in discharges. Three stations within urban basins were compared to 38 stations

  9. Utilization of Precipitation and Moisture Products Derived from Satellites to Support NOAA Operational Precipitation Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferraro, R.; Zhao, L.; Kuligowski, R. J.; Kusselson, S.; Ma, L.; Kidder, S. Q.; Forsythe, J. M.; Jones, A. S.; Ebert, E. E.; Valenti, E.

    2012-12-01

    NOAA/NESDIS operates a constellation of polar and geostationary orbiting satellites to support weather forecasts and to monitor the climate. Additionally, NOAA utilizes satellite assets from other U.S. agencies like NASA and the Department of Defense, as well as those from other nations with similar weather and climate responsibilities (i.e., EUMETSAT and JMA). Over the past two decades, through joint efforts between U.S. and international government researchers, academic partners, and private sector corporations, a series of "value added" products have been developed to better serve the needs of weather forecasters and to exploit the full potential of precipitation and moisture products generated from these satellites. In this presentation, we will focus on two of these products - Ensemble Tropical Rainfall Potential (eTRaP) and Blended Total Precipitable Water (bTPW) - and provide examples on how they contribute to hydrometeorological forecasts. In terms of passive microwave satellite products, TPW perhaps is most widely used to support real-time forecasting applications, as it accurately depicts tropospheric water vapor and its movement. In particular, it has proven to be extremely useful in determining the location, timing, and duration of "atmospheric rivers" which contribute to and sustain flooding events. A multi-sensor approach has been developed and implemented at NESDIS in which passive microwave estimates from multiple satellites and sensors are merged to create a seamless, bTPW product that is more efficient for forecasters to use. Additionally, this product is being enhanced for utilization for television weather forecasters. Examples will be shown to illustrate the roll of atmospheric rivers and contribution to flooding events, and how the bTPW product was used to improve the forecast of these events. Heavy rains associated with land falling tropical cyclones (TC) frequently trigger floods that cause millions of dollars of damage and tremendous loss of lives. To provide observations-based forecast guidance for TC heavy rain, the Tropical Rainfall Potential (TRaP), an extrapolation forecast generated by accumulating rainfall estimates from satellites with microwave sensors as the storm is translated along the forecast track, was originally developed to predict the maximum rainfall at landfall, as well as the spatial pattern of precipitation. More recently, an enhancement has been made to combine the TRaP forecasts from multiple sensors and various start times into an ensemble (eTRaP). The ensemble approach provides not only more accurate quantitative precipitation forecasts, including more skillful maximum rainfall amount and location, it also produces probabilistic forecasts of rainfall exceeding various thresholds that decision makers can use to make critical risk assessments. Examples of the utilization and performance of eTRaP will be given in the presentation.

  10. Assessment of flooding impacts in terms of sustainability in Mainland China.

    PubMed

    Ni, Jinren; Sun, Liying; Li, Tianhong; Huang, Zheng; Borthwick, Alistair G L

    2010-10-01

    An understanding of flood impact in terms of sustainability is vital for long-term disaster risk reduction. This paper utilizes two important concepts: conventional insurance related flood risk for short-term damage by specific flood events, and long-term flood impact on sustainability. The Insurance Related Flood Risk index, IRFR, is defined as the product of the Flood Hazard Index (FHI) and Vulnerability. The Long-term Flood Impact on Sustainability index, LFIS, is the ratio of the flood hazard index to the Sustainable Development Index (SDI). Using a rapid assessment approach, quantitative assessments of IRFR and LFIS are carried out for 2339 counties and cities in mainland China. Each index is graded from 'very low' to 'very high' according to the eigenvalue magnitude of cluster centroids. By combining grades of FHI and SDI, mainland China is then classified into four zones in order to identify regional variations in the potential linkage between flood hazard and sustainability. Zone I regions, where FHI is graded 'very low' or 'low' and SDI is 'medium' to 'very high', are mainly located in western China. Zone II regions, where FHI and SDI are 'medium' or 'high', occur in the rapidly developing areas of central and eastern China. Zone III regions, where FHI and SDI are 'very low' or 'low', correspond to the resource-based areas of western and north-central China. Zone IV regions, where FHI is 'medium' to 'very high' and SDI is 'very low' to 'low', occur in ecologically fragile areas of south-western China. The paper also examines the distributions of IRFR and LFIS throughout mainland China. Although 57% of the counties and cities have low IRFR values, 64% have high LFIS values. The modal values of LFIS are ordered as Zone I

  11. Estimates of Present and Future Flood Risk in the Conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wing, O.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Johnson, K.; Fargione, J.; Morefield, P.

    2017-12-01

    Past attempts to estimate flood risk across the USA either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30m resolution model of the entire conterminous US (CONUS) with realistic flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. Socio-economic data of commensurate resolution are combined with these flood depths to estimate current and future flood risk. Future population and land-use projections from the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) are employed to indicate how flood risk might change through the 21st Century, while present-day estimates utilize the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) National Structure Inventory and a USEPA map of population distribution. Our data show that the total CONUS population currently exposed to serious flooding is 2.6 to 3.1 times higher than previous estimates; with nearly 41 million Americans living within the so-called 1 in 100-year (1% annual probability) floodplain, compared to only 13 million according to FEMA flood maps. Moreover, socio-economic change alone leads to significant future increases in flood exposure and risk, even before climate change impacts are accounted for. The share of the population living on the 1 in 100-year floodplain is projected to increase from 13.3% in the present-day to 15.6 - 15.8% in 2050 and 16.4 - 16.8% in 2100. The area of developed land within this floodplain, currently at 150,000 km2, is likely to increase by 37 - 72% in 2100 based on the scenarios selected. 5.5 trillion worth of assets currently lie on the 1% floodplain; we project that by 2100 this number will exceed 10 trillion. With this detailed spatial information on present-day flood risk, federal and state agencies can take appropriate action to mitigate losses. Use of USEPA population and land-use projections mean that particular attention can be paid to floodplains where development is projected. Steps to conserve such areas or ensure adequate defenses are in place could avoid the exposure of trillions of dollars of assets, not to mention the human suffering caused by loss of property and life.

  12. Towards an integrated flood management approach to address trade-offs between ecosystem services: Insights from the Dutch and German Rhine, Hungarian Tisza, and Chinese Yangtze basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halbe, Johannes; Knüppe, Kathrin; Knieper, Christian; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia

    2018-04-01

    The utilization of ecosystem services in flood management is challenged by the complexity of human-nature interactions and practical implementation barriers towards more ecosystem-based solutions, such as riverine urban areas or technical infrastructure. This paper analyses how flood management has dealt with trade-offs between ecosystem services and practical constrains towards more ecosystem-based solutions. To this end, we study the evolution of flood management in four case studies in the Dutch and German Rhine, the Hungarian Tisza, and the Chinese Yangtze basins during the last decades, focusing on the development and implementation of institutions and their link to ecosystem services. The complexity of human-nature interactions is addressed by exploring the impacts on ecosystem services through the lens of three management paradigms: (1) the control paradigm, (2) the ecosystem-based paradigm, and (3) the stakeholder involvement paradigm. Case study data from expert interviews and a literature search were structured using a database approach prior to qualitative interpretation. Results show the growing importance of the ecosystem-based and stakeholder involvement paradigms which has led to the consideration of a range of regulating and cultural ecosystem services that had previously been neglected. We detected a trend in flood management practice towards the combination of the different paradigms under the umbrella of integrated flood management, which aims at finding the most suitable solution depending on the respective regional conditions.

  13. Flood Tide Transport of Blue Crab Postlarvae: Limitations in a Lagoonal Estuary

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cudaback, C.; Eggleston, D.

    2005-05-01

    Blue crabs, an important commercial species, spend much of their life in estuaries along the east coast. The larvae spawn at or near the ocean, but the juveniles mature in the lower salinity waters of the estuary. It is generally believed that blue crab postlarvae migrate into near surface waters on flood, possibly cued by increasing salinity, and return to the bottom on ebb. Over several tidal cycles, the postlarvae travel a significant distance up-estuary. This model applies quite well to Chesapeake Bay, which has a strong along-estuary salinity gradient and large tides, but may not apply as well to Pamlico Sound, where circulation and salinity are more wind-driven than tidal. A recently completed study (N. Reyns, PhD), indicates that postlarval blue crabs use flood tides and wind-driven currents to cross Pamlico Sound. This study was based on observations with good spatial coverage, but limited vertical and temporal resolution. We have recently completed a complementary study, sampling crab larvae around the clock at four depths at a single location. Preliminary results from the new study suggest that the crab postlarvae do swim all the way to the surface, on flood only, and that flood currents are strongest slightly below the surface. These observations suggest the utility of flood tide transport in this system. However, near bottom salinity does not seem to be driven by tides; at this point it is unclear what cue might trigger the vertical migration of the postlarvae.

  14. Flooding disturbances increase resource availability and productivity but reduce stability in diverse plant communities.

    PubMed

    Wright, Alexandra J; Ebeling, Anne; de Kroon, Hans; Roscher, Christiane; Weigelt, Alexandra; Buchmann, Nina; Buchmann, Tina; Fischer, Christine; Hacker, Nina; Hildebrandt, Anke; Leimer, Sophia; Mommer, Liesje; Oelmann, Yvonne; Scheu, Stefan; Steinauer, Katja; Strecker, Tanja; Weisser, Wolfgang; Wilcke, Wolfgang; Eisenhauer, Nico

    2015-01-20

    The natural world is increasingly defined by change. Within the next 100 years, rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will continue to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events. Simultaneously, human activities are reducing global biodiversity, with current extinction rates at ~1,000 × what they were before human domination of Earth's ecosystems. The co-occurrence of these trends may be of particular concern, as greater biological diversity could help ecosystems resist change during large perturbations. We use data from a 200-year flood event to show that when a disturbance is associated with an increase in resource availability, the opposite may occur. Flooding was associated with increases in productivity and decreases in stability, particularly in the highest diversity communities. Our results undermine the utility of the biodiversity-stability hypothesis during a large number of disturbances where resource availability increases. We propose a conceptual framework that can be widely applied during natural disturbances.

  15. Innovative solutions in monitoring systems in flood protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekuła, Klaudia; Połeć, Marzena; Borecka, Aleksandra

    2018-02-01

    The article presents the possibilities of ISMOP - IT System of Levee Monitoring. This system is able to collecting data from the reference and experimental control and measurement network. The experimental levee is build in a 1:1 scale and located in the village of Czernichow, near Cracow. The innovation is the utilization of a series of sensors monitoring the changes in the body of levee. It can be done by comparing the results of numerical simulations with results from installed two groups of sensors: reference sensors and experimental sensors. The reference control and measurement sensors create network based on pore pressure and temperature sensors. Additionally, it contains the fiber-optic technology. The second network include design experimental sensors, constructed for the development of solutions that can be used in existing flood embankments. The results are important to create the comprehensive and inexpensive monitoring system, which could be helpful for state authorities and local governments in flood protection.

  16. Combined Effect of an Atmospheric River and a Cut-off Low in Hiroshima Flooding Event on August 19, 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takayabu, Y. N.; Hirota, N.; Kato, M.; Arakane, S.

    2015-12-01

    An extraordinary precipitation over 100 mmhr-1in Hiroshima on August 19, 2014, caused a flash flood which resulted in 74 fatalities and collapse of 330 houses. In order to examine the meteorological background of this flooding event, we carried out a detailed analysis utilizing rain gauge data, satellite precipitation dataset, and a meso scale and a global scale objective analyses provided from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Then, we performed numerical experiments using a nonhydrostatic compressible equation model called the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS). As a result, a combined effect of an atmospheric river (AR) and a cut-off low (COL) in this flooding event was elucidated. During the event, a filamentary transport of moisture extending from the Indochina Peninsula to the Japanese Islands was observed along the southern side of the subtropical jet, forming an AR. This AR had a deep structure with an amount of free tropospheric moisture comparable to that of the boundary layer. Concurrently, there was a COL, detached from the Mid-Pacific Trough, moving northwestward toward the Japanese Archipelago. With various sensitivity experiments, we concluded that a mid-tropospheric instability associated with the cold core of the COL and a dynamical ascent induced in its foreside, collaboratively worked with the anomalous moisture in the free troposphere associated with the AR, to extraordinarily enhance the precipitation over Hiroshima region. An orographic effect to concentrate the precipitation in this region was also confirmed. An implication on a difference in effects of AR in this event with a climatologically moist boundary layer, from those in the US west coast with a very dry environment, was also obtained. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1503) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan, and by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan.

  17. Synopsis of wetland functions and values: bottomland hardwoods with special emphasis on eastern Texas and Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilkinson, D.L.; Schneller-McDonald, K.; Olson, R.W.; Auble, G.T.

    1987-01-01

    Bottomland hardwood wetlands are the natural cover type of many floodplain ecosystems in the southeastern United States. They are dynamic, productive systems that depend on intermittent flooding and moving water for maintenance of structure and function. Many of the diverse functions performed by bottomland hardwoods (e.g., flood control, sediment trapping, fish and wildlife habitat) are directly or indirectly valued by humans. Balanced decisions regarding bottomland hardwoods are often hindered by a limited ability to accurately specify the functions being performed by these systems and, furthermore, by an inability to evaluate these functions in economic terms. This report addresses these informational needs. It focuses on the bottomland hardwoods of eastern Texas and Oklahoma, serving as an introduction and entry to the literature. It is not intended to serve as a substitute for reference to the original literature. The first section of the report is a review of the major functions of bottomland hardwoods, grouped under the headings of hydrology, water quality, productivity, detritus, nutrients, and habitat. Although the hydrology of these areas is diverse and complex, especially with respect to groundwater, water storage at high flows can clearly function to attenuate peak flows, with possible reductions in downstream flooding damage. Water moving through a bottomland hardwood system carries with it various organic and inorganic constituents, including sediment, organic matter, nutrients, and pollutants. When waterborne materials are introduced to bottomland hardwoods (from river flooding or upland runoff), they may be retained, transformed, or transported. As a result, water quality may be significantly altered and improved. The fluctuating and flowing water regime of bottomland hardwoods is associated with generally high net primary productivity and rapid fluxes of organic matter and nutrients. These, in turn, support secondary productivity in the bottomland hardwoods and downstream through detrital export. A large number of studies detail the extensive utilization of bottomland hardwoods by animals. Several basic habitat components contribute to this support function, including: 1. Fluctuating water levels and permanent bodies of water, 2. Hard mast (e.g., acorns), 3. Dens and cavities, 4. High soil fertility, 5. Diversity of food and cover, 6. Predominance of woody plant communities, 7. Close proximity of diverse structural features, and 8. Linear features providing movement corridors. The second section of the report focuses on the bottomlands of eastern Texas and Oklahoma, including topics such as climate, soils, water resources, historical perspective, vegetation, and fauna. Considerable attention is given to structural characteristics in this section, in order to provide contrasts with bottomland hardwood ecosystems in other areas. In general, the bottomland hardwoods of eastern Texas and Oklahoma are very similar to those elsewhere in the southeastern United States. Differences include the occurrence and relative importance of some community types and plant species and the greater importance of reservoir construction as a source of bottomland hardwoods loss in eastern Texas and Oklahoma. Again, information on faunal utilization is extensive relative to the information available concerning other functions.

  18. 7 CFR 1980.318 - Flood or mudslide hazard area precautions.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... dwelling location and construction plans and specifications for new buildings or improvements to existing... SERVICE, RURAL BUSINESS-COOPERATIVE SERVICE, RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, AND FARM SERVICE AGENCY, DEPARTMENT... there is no practical alternative. (a) Dwelling location. Dwellings and building improvements located in...

  19. Influence of climate change on flood magnitude and seasonality in the Arga River catchment in Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garijo, Carlos; Mediero, Luis

    2018-04-01

    Climate change projections suggest that extremes, such as floods, will modify their behaviour in the future. Detailed catchment-scale studies are needed to implement the European Union Floods Directive and give recommendations for flood management and design of hydraulic infrastructure. In this study, a methodology to quantify changes in future flood magnitude and seasonality due to climate change at a catchment scale is proposed. Projections of 24 global climate models are used, with 10 being downscaled by the Spanish Meteorological Agency (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, AEMET) and 14 from the EURO-CORDEX project, under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the Fifth Assessment Report provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Downscaled climate models provided by the AEMET were corrected in terms of bias. The HBV rainfall-runoff model was selected to simulate the catchment hydrological behaviour. Simulations were analysed through both annual maximum and peaks-over-threshold (POT) series. The results show a decrease in the magnitude of extreme floods for the climate model projections downscaled by the AEMET. However, results for the climate model projections downscaled by EURO-CORDEX show differing trends, depending on the RCP. A small decrease in the flood magnitude was noticed for the RCP 4.5, while an increase was found for the RCP 8.5. Regarding the monthly seasonality analysis performed by using the POT series, a delay in the flood timing from late-autumn to late-winter is identified supporting the findings of recent studies performed with observed data in recent decades.

  20. Using Hybrid Techniques for Generating Watershed-scale Flood Models in an Integrated Modeling Framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saksena, S.; Merwade, V.; Singhofen, P.

    2017-12-01

    There is an increasing global trend towards developing large scale flood models that account for spatial heterogeneity at watershed scales to drive the future flood risk planning. Integrated surface water-groundwater modeling procedures can elucidate all the hydrologic processes taking part during a flood event to provide accurate flood outputs. Even though the advantages of using integrated modeling are widely acknowledged, the complexity of integrated process representation, computation time and number of input parameters required have deterred its application to flood inundation mapping, especially for large watersheds. This study presents a faster approach for creating watershed scale flood models using a hybrid design that breaks down the watershed into multiple regions of variable spatial resolution by prioritizing higher order streams. The methodology involves creating a hybrid model for the Upper Wabash River Basin in Indiana using Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) and comparing the performance with a fully-integrated 2D hydrodynamic model. The hybrid approach involves simplification procedures such as 1D channel-2D floodplain coupling; hydrologic basin (HUC-12) integration with 2D groundwater for rainfall-runoff routing; and varying spatial resolution of 2D overland flow based on stream order. The results for a 50-year return period storm event show that hybrid model (NSE=0.87) performance is similar to the 2D integrated model (NSE=0.88) but the computational time is reduced to half. The results suggest that significant computational efficiency can be obtained while maintaining model accuracy for large-scale flood models by using hybrid approaches for model creation.

  1. Assessing the role of large wood entrained in the 2013 Colorado Front Range flood in ongoing channel response and reservoir management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, Georgina; Rathburn, Sara; Ryan, Sandra; Wohl, Ellen; Blair, Aaron

    2016-04-01

    Considerable quantities of large wood (LW) may be entrained during floods with long lasting impacts on channel morphology, sediment and LW export, and downstream reservoir management. Here we present an analysis of LW entrained by an extensive flood in Colorado, USA. Over a 5 day period commencing 9th September 2013, up to 450 mm of rain, or ~1000% of the monthly average, fell in catchments spanning a 100-km-wide swath of the Colorado Front Range resulting in major flooding. Catchment response was dramatic, with reports of 100s - 1000s of years of erosion, destruction of infrastructure and homes, and sediment and LW loading within reservoirs. One heavily impacted catchment is the North St Vrain, draining 250km2 of the South Platte drainage basin. In addition to widespread channel enlargement, remote imagery reveals hundreds of landslides that delivered sediment and LW to the channel and ultimately to Ralph Price Reservoir, which provides municipal water to Longmont. The City of Longmont facilitated the removal of ~1050 m3 of wood deposited at the reservoir inlet by the flood but the potential for continued movement of large wood in the catchment presents an on-going concern for reservoir management. In collaboration with the City of Longmont, our objectives are (1) to quantify the volume of wood entrained by the flood and still stored along the channel, (2) characterize the size and distribution of LW deposits and (3) determine their role in ongoing catchment flood response and recovery. We utilize freely available pre and post flood NAIP 4-band imagery to calculate a normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI) difference map with which we calculate the area of vegetation entrained by the flood. We combine this with field assessments and a map of vegetation type automatically classified from optical satellite imagery to estimate the total flood-entrained volume of wood. Preliminary testing of 'stream selfies' - structure from motion imaging of LW deposits using a hand-held GoPro camera on an extended platform, demonstrates the potential of this technique to characterize LW deposits and monitor their role in ongoing channel response and recovery.

  2. A Methodology for Forecasting Damage & Economic Consequences to Floods: Building on the National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tootle, G. A.; Gutenson, J. L.; Zhu, L.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Zhang, X.

    2015-12-01

    The National Flood Interoperability Experiment (NFIE) held June 3-July 17, 2015 at the National Water Center (NWC) in Tuscaloosa, Alabama sought to demonstrate an increase in flood predictive capacity for the coterminous United States (CONUS). Accordingly, NFIE-derived technologies and workflows offer the ability to forecast flood damage and economic consequence estimates that coincide with the hydrologic and hydraulic estimations these physics-based models generate. A model providing an accurate prediction of damage and economic consequences is a valuable asset when allocating funding for disaster response, recovery, and relief. Damage prediction and economic consequence assessment also offer an adaptation planning mechanism for defending particularly valuable or vulnerable structures. The NFIE, held at the NWC on The University of Alabama (UA) campus led to the development of this large scale flow and inundation forecasting framework. Currently, the system can produce 15-hour lead-time forecasts for the entire coterminous United States (CONUS). A concept which is anticipated to become operational as of May 2016 within the NWC. The processing of such a large-scale, fine resolution model is accomplished in a parallel computing environment using large supercomputing clusters. Traditionally, flood damage and economic consequence assessment is calculated in a desktop computing environment with a ménage of meteorology, hydrology, hydraulic, and damage assessment tools. In the United States, there are a range of these flood damage/ economic consequence assessment software's available to local, state, and federal emergency management agencies. Among the more commonly used and freely accessible models are the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Flood Damage Reduction Analysis (HEC-FDA), Flood Impact Assessment (HEC-FIA), and Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) United States Multi-Hazard (Hazus-MH). All of which exist only in a desktop environment. With this, authors submit an initial framework for estimating damage and economic consequences to floods using flow and inundation products from the NFIE framework. This adaptive system utilizes existing nationwide datasets describing location and use of structures and can take assimilate a range of data resolutions.

  3. Deep Learning of Post-Wildfire Vegetation Loss using Bitemporal Synthetic Aperture Radar Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Z.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Parker, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Wildfire events followed by heavy precipitation have been proven causally related to breakouts of mudflow or debris flow, which, can demand rapid evacuation and threaten residential communities and civil infrastructure. For example, in the case of the city of Glendora, California, it was first afflicted by a severe wildfire in 1968 and then the flooding caused mudslides and debris flow in 1969 killed 34 people. Therefore, burn area or vegetation loss mapping due to wildfire is critical to agencies for preparing for secondary hazards, particularly flooding and flooding induced mudflow. However, rapid post-wildfire mapping of vegetation loss mapping is not readily obtained by regular remote sensing methods, e.g. various optical methods, due to the presence of smoke, haze, and rainy/cloudy conditions that often follow a wildfire event. In this paper, we will introduce and develop a deep learning-based framework that uses Synthetic Aperture Radar images collected prior to and after a wildfire event. A convolutional neural network (CNN) approach will be used that replaces traditional principle component analysis (PCA) based differencing for non-supervised change feature extraction. Using a small sample of human-labeled burned vegetation, normal vegetation, and urban built-up pixels, we will compare the performance of deep learning and PCA-based feature extraction. The 2014 Coby Fire event, which affected the downstream city of Glendora, was used to evaluate the proposed framework. The NASA's UAVSAR data (https://uavsar.jpl.nasa.gov/) will be utilized for mapping the vegetation damage due to the Coby Fire event.

  4. Large-scale derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dung Nguyen, Viet; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    There is an increasing need for spatially consistent flood risk assessments at the regional scale (several 100.000 km2), in particular in the insurance industry and for national risk reduction strategies. However, most large-scale flood risk assessments are composed of smaller-scale assessments and show spatial inconsistencies. To overcome this deficit, a large-scale flood model composed of a weather generator and catchments models was developed reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The weather generator is a multisite and multivariate stochastic model capable of generating synthetic meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, etc.) at daily resolution for the regional scale. These fields respect the observed autocorrelation, spatial correlation and co-variance between the variables. They are used as input into catchment models. A long-term simulation of this combined system enables to derive very long discharge series at many catchment locations serving as a basic for spatially consistent flood risk estimates at the regional scale. This combined model was set up and validated for major river catchments in Germany. The weather generator was trained by 53-year observation data at 528 stations covering not only the complete Germany but also parts of France, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Australia with the aggregated spatial scale of 443,931 km2. 10.000 years of daily meteorological fields for the study area were generated. Likewise, rainfall-runoff simulations with SWIM were performed for the entire Elbe, Rhine, Weser, Donau and Ems catchments. The validation results illustrate a good performance of the combined system, as the simulated flood magnitudes and frequencies agree well with the observed flood data. Based on continuous simulation this model chain is then used to estimate flood quantiles for the whole Germany including upstream headwater catchments in neighbouring countries. This continuous large scale approach overcomes the several drawbacks reported in traditional approaches for the derived flood frequency analysis and therefore is recommended for large scale flood risk case studies.

  5. A Vulnerability-Based, Bottom-up Assessment of Future Riverine Flood Risk Using a Modified Peaks-Over-Threshold Approach and a Physically Based Hydrologic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knighton, James; Steinschneider, Scott; Walter, M. Todd

    2017-12-01

    There is a chronic disconnection among purely probabilistic flood frequency analysis of flood hazards, flood risks, and hydrological flood mechanisms, which hamper our ability to assess future flood impacts. We present a vulnerability-based approach to estimating riverine flood risk that accommodates a more direct linkage between decision-relevant metrics of risk and the dominant mechanisms that cause riverine flooding. We adapt the conventional peaks-over-threshold (POT) framework to be used with extreme precipitation from different climate processes and rainfall-runoff-based model output. We quantify the probability that at least one adverse hydrologic threshold, potentially defined by stakeholders, will be exceeded within the next N years. This approach allows us to consider flood risk as the summation of risk from separate atmospheric mechanisms, and supports a more direct mapping between hazards and societal outcomes. We perform this analysis within a bottom-up framework to consider the relevance and consequences of information, with varying levels of credibility, on changes to atmospheric patterns driving extreme precipitation events. We demonstrate our proposed approach using a case study for Fall Creek in Ithaca, NY, USA, where we estimate the risk of stakeholder-defined flood metrics from three dominant mechanisms: summer convection, tropical cyclones, and spring rain and snowmelt. Using downscaled climate projections, we determine how flood risk associated with a subset of mechanisms may change in the future, and the resultant shift to annual flood risk. The flood risk approach we propose can provide powerful new insights into future flood threats.

  6. The weighted function method: A handy tool for flood frequency analysis or just a curiosity?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Strupczewski, Witold G.

    2018-04-01

    The idea of the Weighted Function (WF) method for estimation of Pearson type 3 (Pe3) distribution introduced by Ma in 1984 has been revised and successfully applied for shifted inverse Gaussian (IGa3) distribution. Also the conditions of WF applicability to a shifted distribution have been formulated. The accuracy of WF flood quantiles for both Pe3 and IGa3 distributions was assessed by Monte Caro simulations under the true and false distribution assumption versus the maximum likelihood (MLM), moment (MOM) and L-moments (LMM) methods. Three datasets of annual peak flows of Polish catchments serve the case studies to compare the results of the WF, MOM, MLM and LMM performance for the real flood data. For the hundred-year flood the WF method revealed the explicit superiority only over the MLM surpassing the MOM and especially LMM both for the true and false distributional assumption with respect to relative bias and relative mean root square error values. Generally, the WF method performs well and for hydrological sample size and constitutes good alternative for the estimation of the flood upper quantiles.

  7. Electric Ground Support Equipment Advanced Battery Technology Demonstration Project at the Ontario Airport

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tyler Gray; Jeremy Diez; Jeffrey Wishart

    2013-07-01

    The intent of the electric Ground Support Equipment (eGSE) demonstration is to evaluate the day-to-day vehicle performance of electric baggage tractors using two advanced battery technologies to demonstrate possible replacements for the flooded lead-acid (FLA) batteries utilized throughout the industry. These advanced battery technologies have the potential to resolve barriers to the widespread adoption of eGSE deployment. Validation testing had not previously been performed within fleet operations to determine if the performance of current advanced batteries is sufficient to withstand the duty cycle of electric baggage tractors. This report summarizes the work performed and data accumulated during this demonstration inmore » an effort to validate the capabilities of advanced battery technologies. This report summarizes the work performed and data accumulated during this demonstration in an effort to validate the capabilities of advanced battery technologies. The demonstration project also grew the relationship with Southwest Airlines (SWA), our demonstration partner at Ontario International Airport (ONT), located in Ontario, California. The results of this study have encouraged a proposal for a future demonstration project with SWA.« less

  8. Mitigation of Flood Hazards Through Modification of Urban Channels and Floodplains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Stephens, T.

    2017-12-01

    Small urban watersheds with high percent impervious cover and dense road and storm-drain networks are highly responsive to short-duration high-intensity rainfall events that lead to flash floods. The Baltimore metropolitan area has some of the flashiest urban watersheds in the conterminous U.S., high frequency of channel incision in affected areas, and a large number of watershed restoration projects designed to restore ecosystem services through reconnection of the channel with the floodplain. A question of key importance in these and other urban watersheds is to what extent we can mitigate flood hazards and urban stream syndrome through restoration activities that modify the channel and valley floor. Local and state governments have invested resources in repairing damage caused by extreme events like the July 30, 2016 Ellicott City flood in the Tiber River watershed, as well as more frequent high flows in other local urban streams. Recent reports have investigated how much flood mitigation may be achieved through modification of the channel and floodplain to enhance short-term storage of flood waters on the valley floor or in other subsurface structures, as compared with increasing stormwater management in the headwaters. Ongoing research conducted as part of the UWIN (Urban Water Innovation Network) program utilizes high-resolution topographic point clouds derived by processing of photographs from hand-held cameras or video frames from drone overflights. These are used both to track geomorphic change and to assess flood response with 2d hydraulic modeling tools under alternative mitigation scenarios. Assessment metrics include variations in inundation extent, water depth, hydrograph attenuation, and temporal and spatial characteristics of the 2d depth-averaged velocity field. Examples from diverse urban watersheds are presented to illustrate the range of anticipated outcomes and potential constraints on the effectiveness of downstream vs. headwater mitigation efforts.

  9. Variable-source flood pulsing in a semi-arid transboundary watershed: the Chobe River, Botswana and Namibia.

    PubMed

    Pricope, Narcisa G

    2013-02-01

    The Chobe River, characterized by an unusual flood pulsing regime and shared between Botswana and Namibia, lies at the heart of the world's largest transfrontier conservation area (the Kavango-Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area). Significant ecological changes and vegetation conversions are occurring along its floodplains. Various scenarios for agricultural and urban water use are currently being proposed by the government of Botswana. However, the understanding of the river's annual flow regime and timing of the relative contributions of water from three different sources is relatively poor. In light of past and future climate change and variability, this means that allocating water between ecological flows and economic and domestic uses will become increasingly challenging. We reconstruct the inundation history in this basin to help ease this challenge. This paper presents a spatiotemporal approach to estimate the contribution of water from various sources and the magnitude of changes in the flooding extent in the basin between 1985 and 2010. We used time series analysis of bimonthly NOAA AVHRR and NASA MODIS data and climatologic and hydrologic records to determine the flooding timing and extent. The results indicate that between 12 and 62 % of the basin is flooded on an annual basis and that the spatial extent of the flooding varies throughout the year as a function of the timing of peak discharge in two larger basins. A 30-year trend analysis indicates a consistent decline in the average monthly flooded area in the basin. The results may prove useful in future water utilization feasibility studies, in determining measures for protecting ecological flows and levels, and in ecosystem dynamics studies in the context of current and future climate change and variability.

  10. Identification of Dominant Flood Drivers across Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, J.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.; Simonovic, S.; Gusain, A.

    2016-12-01

    In recent past, flooding has taken a devastating form causing societal, economic, and environmental losses over the Globe. Reliable information on the cause of occurrence, time, and magnitude of flood events might be useful for effective planning, design and operation of hydraulic structures to minimize losses. In the present study, we used circular statistics to understand the pattern and seasonality in flooding across Canada. A set of analyses is performed on unregulated daily stream flow data from 318 stream gage stations (procure from HYDAT database) with a record of at least 40 years between 1951-2010. Further, an attempt is also made to identify possible primary drivers of flooding across Canada. To accomplish this, daily precipitation record from 561 stations and 10 resolution snowmelt data from ECMWF ERA 20C during 1951-2010 have been used. Majority of stations reported statistically significant negative trend in flood magnitude in south western part, whereas, an increasing trend in frequency of flooding observed in south eastern part of Canada. The results show a strong evidence of regional patterns of seasonality and inter-annual variability in flooding. It is observed, about 42% of flood events occur during spring (March-May) over south eastern part of Canada and are not associated with extreme precipitation, where snowmelt is found to be primary factor for occurrence of flood events. Further, about 44% of flood events occur during summer (June-August) in southwestern region and having strong association with extreme precipitation. Additionally, we observe the negative trend in precipitation driven flood events (summer flooding) in south western part of Canada. The present study on identification of major flood drivers across Canada shows a need to examine the influence of various climate indices quantifying variation of surface temperature anomalies, which will improve flood prediction and consequently flood risk management. Keywords: Canada, Flood drivers, Flood management, Precipitation, Snowmelt

  11. Estimated Flood Discharges and Map of Flood-Inundated Areas for Omaha Creek, near Homer, Nebraska, 2005

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dietsch, Benjamin J.; Wilson, Richard C.; Strauch, Kellan R.

    2008-01-01

    Repeated flooding of Omaha Creek has caused damage in the Village of Homer. Long-term degradation and bridge scouring have changed substantially the channel characteristics of Omaha Creek. Flood-plain managers, planners, homeowners, and others rely on maps to identify areas at risk of being inundated. To identify areas at risk for inundation by a flood having a 1-percent annual probability, maps were created using topographic data and water-surface elevations resulting from hydrologic and hydraulic analyses. The hydrologic analysis for the Omaha Creek study area was performed using historical peak flows obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gage (station number 06601000). Flood frequency and magnitude were estimated using the PEAKFQ Log-Pearson Type III analysis software. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System, version 3.1.3, software was used to simulate the water-surface elevation for flood events. The calibrated model was used to compute streamflow-gage stages and inundation elevations for the discharges corresponding to floods of selected probabilities. Results of the hydrologic and hydraulic analyses indicated that flood inundation elevations are substantially lower than from a previous study.

  12. Integrated Urban Flood Analysis considering Optimal Operation of Flood Control Facilities in Urban Drainage Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moon, Y. I.; Kim, M. S.; Choi, J. H.; Yuk, G. M.

    2017-12-01

    eavy rainfall has become a recent major cause of urban area flooding due to the climate change and urbanization. To prevent property damage along with casualties, a system which can alert and forecast urban flooding must be developed. Optimal performance of reducing flood damage can be expected of urban drainage facilities when operated in smaller rainfall events over extreme ones. Thus, the purpose of this study is to execute: A) flood forecasting system using runoff analysis based on short term rainfall; and B) flood warning system which operates based on the data from pump stations and rainwater storage in urban basins. In result of the analysis, it is shown that urban drainage facilities using short term rainfall forecasting data by radar will be more effective to reduce urban flood damage than using only the inflow data of the facility. Keywords: Heavy Rainfall, Urban Flood, Short-term Rainfall Forecasting, Optimal operating of urban drainage facilities. AcknowledgmentsThis research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B066744-05) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  13. Moisture performance of insulated, raised, wood-frame floors : a study of twelve houses in southern Louisiana

    Treesearch

    Samuel V. Glass; Charles G. Carll; Jay P. Curole; Matthew D. Voitier

    2010-01-01

    In flood-prone areas, elevating a building’s floor system above the anticipated flood level can significantly limit the extent of property damage associated with flooding. In hot and humid climates, such as the Gulf Coast region, raised floor systems may, however, be at risk for seasonal moisture accumulation, as the majority of residential buildings in such climates...

  14. Using Random Forests to Map Floodplains for the Conterminous USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Floodplains perform several important ecosystem services, including storing water during precipitation events and reducing peak flows, thereby reducing flooding of adjacent communities. Understanding the relationship between flood inundation and floodplains is critical for ecosys...

  15. The Use of Geospatial Technologies in Flood Hazard Mapping and Assessment: Case Study from River Evros

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mentzafou, Angeliki; Markogianni, Vasiliki; Dimitriou, Elias

    2017-02-01

    Many scientists link climate change to the increase of the extreme weather phenomena frequency, which combined with land use changes often lead to disasters with severe social and economic effects. Especially floods as a consequence of heavy rainfall can put vulnerable human and natural systems such as transboundary wetlands at risk. In order to meet the European Directive 2007/60/EC requirements for the development of flood risk management plans, the flood hazard map of Evros transboundary watershed was produced after a grid-based GIS modelling method that aggregates the main factors related to the development of floods: topography, land use, geology, slope, flow accumulation and rainfall intensity. The verification of this tool was achieved through the comparison between the produced hazard map and the inundation maps derived from the supervised classification of Landsat 5 and 7 satellite imageries of four flood events that took place at Evros delta proximity, a wetland of international importance. The comparison of the modelled output (high and very high flood hazard areas) with the extent of the inundated areas as mapped from the satellite data indicated the satisfactory performance of the model. Furthermore, the vulnerability of each land use against the flood events was examined. Geographically Weighted Regression has also been applied between the final flood hazard map and the major factors in order to ascertain their contribution to flood events. The results accredited the existence of a strong relationship between land uses and flood hazard indicating the flood susceptibility of the lowlands and agricultural land. A dynamic transboundary flood hazard management plan should be developed in order to meet the Flood Directive requirements for adequate and coordinated mitigation practices to reduce flood risk.

  16. Analysis of extreme rain and flood events using a regional hydrologically enhanced hydrometeorological system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yucel, Ismail; Onen, Alper

    2013-04-01

    Evidence is showing that global warming or climate change has a direct influence on changes in precipitation and the hydrological cycle. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to become much more frequent as climate warms. Regional hydrometeorological system model which couples the atmosphere with physical and gridded based surface hydrology provide efficient predictions for extreme hydrological events. This modeling system can be used for flood forecasting and warning issues as they provide continuous monitoring of precipitation over large areas at high spatial resolution. This study examines the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro) model that performs the terrain, sub-terrain, and channel routing in producing streamflow from WRF-derived forcing of extreme precipitation events. The capability of the system with different options such as data assimilation is tested for number of flood events observed in basins of western Black Sea Region in Turkey. Rainfall event structures and associated flood responses are evaluated with gauge and satellite-derived precipitation and measured streamflow values. The modeling system shows skills in capturing the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall events and resulted flood hydrographs. High-resolution routing modules activated in the model enhance the simulated discharges.

  17. Accounting for Atmospheric Rivers in the Flood Frequency Estimation in the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barth, N. A.; Villarini, G.; White, K. D.

    2016-12-01

    The Bulletin 17B framework assumes that the observed annual peak flow data included in a flood frequency analysis are a "representative time sample of random homogeneous events." However, flood frequency analysis over the western United States is complicated by annual peak flow records that frequently contain flows generated from distinctly different flood generating mechanisms. Among the different flood generating mechanisms, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for large, regional scale floods. USGS streamgaging stations in the central Columbia River Basin in the Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada, the central and southern California coast, and central Arizona show a mixture of 30-70% AR-generated flood peaks among the complete period of record. It is relatively common for the annual peaks fitted to the log-Pearson Type III distribution in these regions to show sharp breaks in the slope or a curve that reverses direction, pointing to the presence of different flood generating mechanisms. Following the recommendation by B17B to develop separate frequency curves when different flood agents can be identified, we will perform flood frequency analyses accounting for the role played by ARs. We will compare and contrast the results obtained by treating all annual maximum discharge values as generated from a single population against those from a mixed population analyses.

  18. Study on photochemical analysis system (VLES) for EUV lithography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sekiguchi, A.; Kono, Y.; Kadoi, M.; Minami, Y.; Kozawa, T.; Tagawa, S.; Gustafson, D.; Blackborow, P.

    2007-03-01

    A system for photo-chemical analysis of EUV lithography processes has been developed. This system has consists of 3 units: (1) an exposure that uses the Z-Pinch (Energetiq Tech.) EUV Light source (DPP) to carry out a flood exposure, (2) a measurement system RDA (Litho Tech Japan) for the development rate of photo-resists, and (3) a simulation unit that utilizes PROLITH (KLA-Tencor) to calculate the resist profiles and process latitude using the measured development rate data. With this system, preliminary evaluation of the performance of EUV lithography can be performed without any lithography tool (Stepper and Scanner system) that is capable of imaging and alignment. Profiles for 32 nm line and space pattern are simulated for the EUV resist (Posi-2 resist by TOK) by using VLES that hat has sensitivity at the 13.5nm wavelength. The simulation successfully predicts the resist behavior. Thus it is confirmed that the system enables efficient evaluation of the performance of EUV lithography processes.

  19. Applications of flood depth from rapid post-event footprint generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booth, Naomi; Millinship, Ian

    2015-04-01

    Immediately following large flood events, an indication of the area flooded (i.e. the flood footprint) can be extremely useful for evaluating potential impacts on exposed property and infrastructure. Specifically, such information can help insurance companies estimate overall potential losses, deploy claims adjusters and ultimately assists the timely payment of due compensation to the public. Developing these datasets from remotely sensed products seems like an obvious choice. However, there are a number of important drawbacks which limit their utility in the context of flood risk studies. For example, external agencies have no control over the region that is surveyed, the time at which it is surveyed (which is important as the maximum extent would ideally be captured), and how freely accessible the outputs are. Moreover, the spatial resolution of these datasets can be low, and considerable uncertainties in the flood extents exist where dry surfaces give similar return signals to water. Most importantly of all, flood depths are required to estimate potential damages, but generally cannot be estimated from satellite imagery alone. In response to these problems, we have developed an alternative methodology for developing high-resolution footprints of maximum flood extent which do contain depth information. For a particular event, once reports of heavy rainfall are received, we begin monitoring real-time flow data and extracting peak values across affected areas. Next, using statistical extreme value analyses of historic flow records at the same measured locations, the return periods of the maximum event flow at each gauged location are estimated. These return periods are then interpolated along each river and matched to JBA's high-resolution hazard maps, which already exist for a series of design return periods. The extent and depth of flooding associated with the event flow is extracted from the hazard maps to create a flood footprint. Georeferenced ground, aerial and satellite images are used to establish defence integrity, highlight breach locations and validate our footprint. We have implemented this method to create seven flood footprints, including river flooding in central Europe and coastal flooding associated with Storm Xaver in the UK (both in 2013). The inclusion of depth information allows damages to be simulated and compared to actual damage and resultant loss which become available after the event. In this way, we can evaluate depth-damage functions used in catastrophe models and reduce their associated uncertainty. In further studies, the depth data could be used at an individual property level to calibrate property type specific depth-damage functions.

  20. Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Smith, Curtis L.; Tahhan, Antonio; Muchmore, Cody

    2016-09-01

    This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

  1. Visual Sensing for Urban Flood Monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

    2015-01-01

    With the increasing climatic extremes, the frequency and severity of urban flood events have intensified worldwide. In this study, image-based automated monitoring of flood formation and analyses of water level fluctuation were proposed as value-added intelligent sensing applications to turn a passive monitoring camera into a visual sensor. Combined with the proposed visual sensing method, traditional hydrological monitoring cameras have the ability to sense and analyze the local situation of flood events. This can solve the current problem that image-based flood monitoring heavily relies on continuous manned monitoring. Conventional sensing networks can only offer one-dimensional physical parameters measured by gauge sensors, whereas visual sensors can acquire dynamic image information of monitored sites and provide disaster prevention agencies with actual field information for decision-making to relieve flood hazards. The visual sensing method established in this study provides spatiotemporal information that can be used for automated remote analysis for monitoring urban floods. This paper focuses on the determination of flood formation based on image-processing techniques. The experimental results suggest that the visual sensing approach may be a reliable way for determining the water fluctuation and measuring its elevation and flood intrusion with respect to real-world coordinates. The performance of the proposed method has been confirmed; it has the capability to monitor and analyze the flood status, and therefore, it can serve as an active flood warning system. PMID:26287201

  2. Assessing the performance of multi-purpose channel management measures at increasing scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Mark; Addy, Steve

    2016-04-01

    In addition to hydroclimatic drivers, sediment deposition from high energy river systems can reduce channel conveyance capacity and lead to significant increases in flood risk. There is an increasing recognition that we need to work with the interplay of natural hydrological and morphological processes in order to attenuate flood flows and manage sediment (both coarse and fine). This typically includes both catchment (e.g. woodland planting, wetlands) and river (e.g. wood placement, floodplain reconnection) restoration approaches. The aim of this work was to assess at which scales channel management measures (notably wood placement and flood embankment removal) are most appropriate for flood and sediment management in high energy upland river systems. We present research findings from two densely instrumented research sites in Scotland which regularly experience flood events and have associated coarse sediment problems. We assessed the performance of a range of novel trial measures for three different scales: wooded flow restrictors and gully tree planting at the small scale (<1 km2), floodplain tree planting and engineered log jams at the intermediate scale (5-60 km2), and flood embankment lowering at the large scale (350 km2). Our results suggest that at the smallest scale, care is needed in the installation of flow restrictors. It was found for some restrictors that vertical erosion can occur if the tributary channel bed is disturbed. Preliminary model evidence suggested they have a very limited impact on channel discharge and flood peak delay owing to the small storage areas behind the structures. At intermediate scales, the ability to trap sediment by engineered log jams was limited. Of the 45 engineered log jams installed, around half created a small geomorphic response and only 5 captured a significant amount of coarse material (during one large flood event). As scale increases, the chance of damage or loss of wood placement is greatest. Monitoring highlights the importance of structure design (porosity and degree of channel blockage) and placement in zones of high sediment transport to optimise performance. At the large scale, well designed flood embankment lowering can improve connectivity to the floodplain during low to medium return period events. However, ancillary works to stabilise the bank failed thus emphasising the importance of letting natural processes readjust channel morphology and hydrological connections to the floodplain. Although these trial measures demonstrated limited effects, this may be in part owing to restrictions in the range of hydroclimatological conditions during the study period and further work is needed to assess the performance under more extreme conditions. This work will contribute to refining guidance for managing channel coarse sediment problems in the future which in turn could help mitigate flooding using natural approaches.

  3. Laser-assisted solar cell metallization processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dutta, S.

    1984-01-01

    Laser-assisted processing techniques utilized to produce the fine line, thin metal grid structures that are required to fabricate high efficiency solar cells are examined. Two basic techniques for metal deposition are investigated; (1) photochemical decomposition of liquid or gas phase organometallic compounds utilizing either a focused, CW ultraviolet laser (System 1) or a mask and ultraviolet flood illumination, such as that provided by a repetitively pulsed, defocused excimer laser (System 2), for pattern definition, and (2) thermal deposition of metals from organometallic solutions or vapors utilizing a focused, CW laser beam as a local heat source to draw the metallization pattern.

  4. Predicting Coastal Flood Severity using Random Forest Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal floods have become more common recently and are predicted to further increase in frequency and severity due to sea level rise. Predicting floods in coastal cities can be difficult due to the number of environmental and geographic factors which can influence flooding events. Built stormwater infrastructure and irregular urban landscapes add further complexity. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning algorithms in predicting street flood occurrence in an urban coastal setting. The model is trained and evaluated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 - October 2016. Rainfall, tide levels, water table levels, and wind conditions are used as input variables. Street flooding reports made by city workers after named and unnamed storm events, ranging from 1-159 reports per event, are the model output. Results show that Random Forest provides predictive power in estimating the number of flood occurrences given a set of environmental conditions with an out-of-bag root mean squared error of 4.3 flood reports and a mean absolute error of 0.82 flood reports. The Random Forest algorithm performed much better than Poisson regression. From the Random Forest model, total daily rainfall was by far the most important factor in flood occurrence prediction, followed by daily low tide and daily higher high tide. The model demonstrated here could be used to predict flood severity based on forecast rainfall and tide conditions and could be further enhanced using more complete street flooding data for model training.

  5. Tree-based flood damage modeling of companies: Damage processes and model performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno; Kreibich, Heidi

    2017-07-01

    Reliable flood risk analyses, including the estimation of damage, are an important prerequisite for efficient risk management. However, not much is known about flood damage processes affecting companies. Thus, we conduct a flood damage assessment of companies in Germany with regard to two aspects. First, we identify relevant damage-influencing variables. Second, we assess the prediction performance of the developed damage models with respect to the gain by using an increasing amount of training data and a sector-specific evaluation of the data. Random forests are trained with data from two postevent surveys after flood events occurring in the years 2002 and 2013. For a sector-specific consideration, the data set is split into four subsets corresponding to the manufacturing, commercial, financial, and service sectors. Further, separate models are derived for three different company assets: buildings, equipment, and goods and stock. Calculated variable importance values reveal different variable sets relevant for the damage estimation, indicating significant differences in the damage process for various company sectors and assets. With an increasing number of data used to build the models, prediction errors decrease. Yet the effect is rather small and seems to saturate for a data set size of several hundred observations. In contrast, the prediction improvement achieved by a sector-specific consideration is more distinct, especially for damage to equipment and goods and stock. Consequently, sector-specific data acquisition and a consideration of sector-specific company characteristics in future flood damage assessments is expected to improve the model performance more than a mere increase in data.

  6. Transient Flow through an Unsaturated Levee Embankment during the 2011 Mississippi River Flood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jafari, N.; Stark, T.; Vahedifard, F.; Cadigan, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Mississippi River and corresponding tributaries drain approximately 3.23 million km2 (1.25 million mi2) or the equivalent of 41% of the contiguous United States. Approximately 2,600 km ( 1,600 miles) of earthen levees presently protect major urban cities and agricultural land against the periodic Mississippi River floods within the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The 2011 flood also severely stressed the levees and highlighted the need to evaluate the behavior of levee embankments during high water levels. The performance of earthen levees is complex because of the uncertainties in construction materials, antecedent moisture contents, hydraulic properties, and lack of field monitoring. In particular, calibration of unsaturated and saturated soil properties of levee embankment and foundation layers along with the evaluation of phreatic surface during high river stage is lacking. Due to the formation of sand boils at the Duncan Point Levee in Baton Rouge, LA during the 2011 flood event, a reconnaissance survey was conducted to collect pore-water pressures in the sand foundation using piezometers and identifying the phreatic surface at the peak river level. Transient seepage analyses were performed to calibrate the foundation and levee embankment material properties using field data collected. With this calibrated levee model, numerical experiments were conducted to characterize the effects of rainfall intensity and duration, progression of phreatic surface, and seasonal climate variability prior to floods on the performance of the levee embankment. For example, elevated phreatic surface from river floods are maintained for several months and can be compounded with rainfall to lead to slope instability.

  7. Electromagnetic radiation screening of semiconductor devices for long life applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, T. C.; Brammer, W. G.

    1972-01-01

    A review is presented of the mechanism of interaction of electromagnetic radiation in various spectral ranges, with various semiconductor device defects. Previous work conducted in this area was analyzed as to its pertinence to the current problem. The task was studied of implementing electromagnetic screening methods in the wavelength region determined to be most effective. Both scanning and flooding type stimulation techniques are discussed. While the scanning technique offers a considerably higher yield of useful information, a preliminary investigation utilizing the flooding approach is first recommended because of the ease of implementation, lower cost and ability to provide go-no-go information in semiconductor screening.

  8. Spatial-Temporal dynamics of surface water flooding and consequences for emergency services accessibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pattison, Ian; Green, Daniel; Yu, Dapeng; Bosher, Lee; Wilby, Rob; Yang, Lili; Ryley, Tim

    2016-04-01

    Urban areas are increasingly susceptible to surface water flooding, with more intense precipitation and intensification of land development. Flooding has both direct impacts i.e. locations inundated with water, and indirect impacts i.e. transport networks, utility e.g. electricity/water services etc. The direct areas flooded evolve in space through the event, and are predicted by standard inundation models. However, the wider indirect impacts and the spatial-temporal patterns are less constrained and it is these that are needed to manage the impacts in real-time. This paper focusses on the Category One responders of the Fire and Rescue and Ambulance Services in the City of Leicester, East Midlands, UK. Leicester is ranked 16th out of 4215 settlements at risk of surface water flooding in the UK based upon the population at risk (15,200 people) (DEFRA, 2009). The analysis undertaken involved overlaying the flood extent with the Integrated Transport Network (ITN) data within a GIS framework. Then a simple transport routing algorithm was used to predict the travel time from specific nodes representing ambulance or fire stations to different parts of the city. Flood magnitudes with 1:20, 1:100 and 1:1000 return periods have been investigated. Under a scenario of no flooding, 100% of the city is accessible by the six fire stations in the city. However, in the 1 in 20 year surface water flood event the peak inundation results in 66.5% being accessible in the 10 minute permitted time and 6% is totally inaccessible. This falls to 40% and 13% respectively for the 1 in 100 year event. Maps show the area of the city that are accessible by two or more stations within the permitted response time, which shows these areas are the most resilient to surface water flooding. However, it isn't just the peak water depths at every location which impacts accessibility within the city but the spatial-temporal patterns of the inundation. The areas within the 10 minute response time expand and contract through the event as the inundated area makes roads in different parts of the city inaccessible through the event. These maps also allow key access roads to be identified. Key stakeholders, within the City of Leicester, have highlighted the potential benefit of such dynamic accessibility maps for their multi-agency planning and response for surface water flooding.

  9. The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

    2017-04-01

    Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

  10. A prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt flood events in middle and high latitudes Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiao, C.; Huang, Q.; Chen, T.; Zhang, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of global warming, the snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area of the middle and high latitudes are increasingly frequent and create severe casualties and property damages. Carrying out the prediction and risk assessment of the snowmelt flood is of great importance in the water resources management, the flood warning and prevention. Based on the remote sensing and GIS techniques, the relationships of the variables influencing the snowmelt flood such as the snow area, the snow depth, the air temperature, the precipitation, the land topography and land covers are analyzed and a prediction and damage assessment model for snowmelt floods is developed. This model analyzes and predicts the flood submerging area, flood depth, flood grade, and the damages of different underlying surfaces in the study area in a given time period based on the estimation of snowmelt amount, the snowmelt runoff, the direction and velocity of the flood. Then it was used to predict a snowmelt flood event in the Ertis River Basin in northern Xinjiang, China, during March and June, 2005 and to assess its damages including the damages of roads, transmission lines, settlements caused by the floods and the possible landslides using the hydrological and meteorological data, snow parameter data, DEM data and land use data. A comparison was made between the prediction results from this model and observation data including the flood measurement and its disaster loss data, which suggests that this model performs well in predicting the strength and impact area of snowmelt flood and its damage assessment. This model will be helpful for the prediction and damage assessment of snowmelt flood events in the mountainous area in the middle and high latitudes in spring, which has great social and economic significance because it provides a relatively reliable method for snowmelt flood prediction and reduces the possible damages caused by snowmelt floods.

  11. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B., Cranston, M., Tavendale, A., Ghimire, S., and Dhondia, J. (2015) Developing surface water flood forecasting capabilities in Scotland: an operational pilot for the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. Journal of Flood Risk Management, In Press.

  12. Impacts of Floods Events on Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caporali, E.; Pacetti, T.; Rulli, M. C.

    2017-12-01

    The analysis of the interactions among natural disasters and food security is particularly significant for developing countries where food availability (one of the four pillars of food security together with access, utilization and stability) can be highly jeopardize by extreme events that damage the primary access to food, i.e. the agriculture. The main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of flood events on food security for two disastrous flood events in Bangladesh on 2007 and in Pakistan on 2010, selected here as case studies based on the existing literature related to extreme floods.The adopted methodology integrates remote sensing data, agricultural statistics, and water footprint values in order to (i) evaluating the potentially affected agricultural areas; (ii) converting the affected areas into crop loss; (iii) estimating the associated calories and water footprint losses. In Bangladesh, the estimated lost rice is around 12.5% of the total potential production, which implies a 5.3% calories loss with respect to the total potential energy provided by rice and 4.4% of total WF associated to national food supply. In Pakistan, the results show a crops loss of 19% for sugarcane and 40% for rice, with a related calories loss of 8.5% and a WF loss of 13.5%.The results highlight the countries vulnerability to flood, being both countries strongly dependent on local agricultural production. The 2007 flood event reflected critically upon Bangladeshi food security, almost doubling the existing food deficit. The same happened in Pakistan where an already scarce food supply has been worsened by the 2010 flood.Method results are fully repeatable; whereas, for remote sensed data the sources of data are valid worldwide and the data regarding land use and crops characteristics are strongly site specific, which need to be carefully evaluated.These case studies stress the importance of integrating different analysis approaches to carry out an assessment of the meaningful connections between flood and food security and to enhance the resilience of territories.

  13. An Integrated Ensemble-Based Operational Framework to Predict Urban Flooding: A Case Study of Hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack River Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saleh, F.; Ramaswamy, V.; Georgas, N.; Blumberg, A. F.; Wang, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Advances in computational resources and modeling techniques are opening the path to effectively integrate existing complex models. In the context of flood prediction, recent extreme events have demonstrated the importance of integrating components of the hydrosystem to better represent the interactions amongst different physical processes and phenomena. As such, there is a pressing need to develop holistic and cross-disciplinary modeling frameworks that effectively integrate existing models and better represent the operative dynamics. This work presents a novel Hydrologic-Hydraulic-Hydrodynamic Ensemble (H3E) flood prediction framework that operationally integrates existing predictive models representing coastal (New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System, NYHOPS), hydrologic (US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS) and hydraulic (2-dimensional River Analysis System, HEC-RAS) components. The state-of-the-art framework is forced with 125 ensemble meteorological inputs from numerical weather prediction models including the Global Ensemble Forecast System, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) and the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM). The framework produces, within a 96-hour forecast horizon, on-the-fly Google Earth flood maps that provide critical information for decision makers and emergency preparedness managers. The utility of the framework was demonstrated by retrospectively forecasting an extreme flood event, hurricane Sandy in the Passaic and Hackensack watersheds (New Jersey, USA). Hurricane Sandy caused significant damage to a number of critical facilities in this area including the New Jersey Transit's main storage and maintenance facility. The results of this work demonstrate that ensemble based frameworks provide improved flood predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus improving the assessment of risks as when compared to a deterministic forecast. The work offers perspectives for short-term flood forecasts, flood mitigation strategies and best management practices for climate change scenarios.

  14. Numerical simulation on ferrofluid flow in fractured porous media based on discrete-fracture model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Tao; Yao, Jun; Huang, Zhaoqin; Yin, Xiaolong; Xie, Haojun; Zhang, Jianguang

    2017-06-01

    Water flooding is an efficient approach to maintain reservoir pressure and has been widely used to enhance oil recovery. However, preferential water pathways such as fractures can significantly decrease the sweep efficiency. Therefore, the utilization ratio of injected water is seriously affected. How to develop new flooding technology to further improve the oil recovery in this situation is a pressing problem. For the past few years, controllable ferrofluid has caused the extensive concern in oil industry as a new functional material. In the presence of a gradient in the magnetic field strength, a magnetic body force is produced on the ferrofluid so that the attractive magnetic forces allow the ferrofluid to be manipulated to flow in any desired direction through the control of the external magnetic field. In view of these properties, the potential application of using the ferrofluid as a new kind of displacing fluid for flooding in fractured porous media is been studied in this paper for the first time. Considering the physical process of the mobilization of ferrofluid through porous media by arrangement of strong external magnetic fields, the magnetic body force was introduced into the Darcy equation and deals with fractures based on the discrete-fracture model. The fully implicit finite volume method is used to solve mathematical model and the validity and accuracy of numerical simulation, which is demonstrated through an experiment with ferrofluid flowing in a single fractured oil-saturated sand in a 2-D horizontal cell. At last, the water flooding and ferrofluid flooding in a complex fractured porous media have been studied. The results showed that the ferrofluid can be manipulated to flow in desired direction through control of the external magnetic field, so that using ferrofluid for flooding can raise the scope of the whole displacement. As a consequence, the oil recovery has been greatly improved in comparison to water flooding. Thus, the ferrofluid flooding is a large potential method for enhanced oil recovery in the future.

  15. Coupling Fluvial and Oceanic Drivers in Flooding Forecasts for San Francisco Bay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herdman, L.; Kim, J.; Cifelli, R.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Johnson, L. E.; Chandrasekar, V.

    2016-12-01

    San Francisco Bay is a highly urbanized estuary and the surrounding communities are susceptible to flooding along the bay shoreline and inland rivers and creeks that drain to the Bay. A forecast model that integrates fluvial and oceanic drivers is necessary for predicting flooding in this complex urban environment. This study introduces the state-of-the-art coupling of the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) with the NWS Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) for San Francisco Bay. For this application, we utilize Delft3D-FM, a hydrodynamic model based on a flexible mesh grid, to calculate water levels that account for tidal forcing, seasonal water level anomalies, surge and in-Bay generated wind waves from the wind and pressure fields of a NWS forecast model. The tributary discharges from RDHM are dynamic, meteorologically driven allowing for operational use of CoSMoS which has previously relied on statistical estimates of river discharge. The flooding extent is determined by overlaying the resulting maximum water levels onto a recently updated 2-m digital elevation model of the study area which best resolves the extensive levee and tidal marsh systems in the region. The results we present here are focused on the interaction of the Bay and the Napa River watershed. This study demonstrates the interoperability of the CoSMoS and RDHM prediction models. We also use this pilot region to examine storm flooding impacts in a series of storm scenarios that simulate 5-100yr return period events in terms of either coastal or fluvial events. These scenarios demonstrate the wide range of possible flooding outcomes considering rainfall recurrence intervals, soil moisture conditions, storm surge, wind speed, and tides (spring and neap). With a simulated set of over 25 storm scenarios we show how the extent, level, and duration of flooding is dependent on these atmospheric and hydrologic parameters and we also determine a range of likely flood events.

  16. Flood loss modelling with FLF-IT: a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasanzadeh Nafari, Roozbeh; Amadio, Mattia; Ngo, Tuan; Mysiak, Jaroslav

    2017-07-01

    The damage triggered by different flood events costs the Italian economy millions of euros each year. This cost is likely to increase in the future due to climate variability and economic development. In order to avoid or reduce such significant financial losses, risk management requires tools which can provide a reliable estimate of potential flood impacts across the country. Flood loss functions are an internationally accepted method for estimating physical flood damage in urban areas. In this study, we derived a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures (FLF-IT), on the basis of empirical damage data collected from a recent flood event in the region of Emilia-Romagna. The function was developed based on a new Australian approach (FLFA), which represents the confidence limits that exist around the parameterized functional depth-damage relationship. After model calibration, the performance of the model was validated for the prediction of loss ratios and absolute damage values. It was also contrasted with an uncalibrated relative model with frequent usage in Europe. In this regard, a three-fold cross-validation procedure was carried out over the empirical sample to measure the range of uncertainty from the actual damage data. The predictive capability has also been studied for some sub-classes of water depth. The validation procedure shows that the newly derived function performs well (no bias and only 10 % mean absolute error), especially when the water depth is high. Results of these validation tests illustrate the importance of model calibration. The advantages of the FLF-IT model over other Italian models include calibration with empirical data, consideration of the epistemic uncertainty of data, and the ability to change parameters based on building practices across Italy.

  17. IFIS Model-Plus: A Web-Based GUI for Visualization, Comparison and Evaluation of Distributed Flood Forecasts and Hindcasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krajewski, W. F.; Della Libera Zanchetta, A.; Mantilla, R.; Demir, I.

    2017-12-01

    This work explores the use of hydroinformatics tools to provide an user friendly and accessible interface for executing and assessing the output of realtime flood forecasts using distributed hydrological models. The main result is the implementation of a web system that uses an Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS)-based environment for graphical displays of rainfall-runoff simulation results for both real-time and past storm events. It communicates with ASYNCH ODE solver to perform large-scale distributed hydrological modeling based on segmentation of the terrain into hillslope-link hydrologic units. The cyber-platform also allows hindcast of model performance by testing multiple model configurations and assumptions of vertical flows in the soils. The scope of the currently implemented system is the entire set of contributing watersheds for the territory of the state of Iowa. The interface provides resources for visualization of animated maps for different water-related modeled states of the environment, including flood-waves propagation with classification of flood magnitude, runoff generation, surface soil moisture and total water column in the soil. Additional tools for comparing different model configurations and performing model evaluation by comparing to observed variables at monitored sites are also available. The user friendly interface has been published to the web under the URL http://ifis.iowafloodcenter.org/ifis/sc/modelplus/.

  18. Overbank Sedimentation from the 2011 Flood along the Lower Mississippi River: Characterization and Comparison of Two Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, P. H.; Heitmuller, F. T.; Kesel, R. H.

    2012-04-01

    The geomorphic effectiveness of extreme events has long been a fundamental topic within Earth sciences. The 2011 flood along the lower Mississippi River (3.2 x 10-6 km2) was an extreme event and presented an ideal opportunity to consider controls on the magnitude and pattern of floodplain sedimentation. The study reach was located between Natchez, Mississippi and St. Francisville, Louisiana, the lowermost reaches of the alluvial valley, and the same location utilized in a well documented sedimentation study from a comparable flood event in 1973. Thus, the 2011 field study provided a rare opportunity to directly compare floodplain sedimentation from two extreme events on Earth's third largest fluvial system. Although flood stage along the Lower Mississippi River is influenced by an extensive levee system the field setting is distinctive because it is not embanked by main-line levees. The field site was flooded for nearly two months, from early May to late June 2011. The flood crest exceeded long standing (> 100 yr) stage heights, including the infamous 1927, 1937, and 1973 events. The maximum discharge at Vicksburg, Mississippi, upstream of the study sites, was 65,695 m3/s, one of the larger discharge events along the Lower Mississippi River. Field work was conducted soon after flood waters receded and before bioturbation disrupted the integrity of the flood deposits. We sampled flood deposits at fifty-five locations within a range of floodplain depositional environments to quantify and qualify the sedimentary, hydrologic, and hydraulic characteristics of the flood, and to make explicit comparison with the 1973 study. The average thickness of flood deposits ranged from < 1 mm to 650 mm, but was highly variable. Although natural levees had the thickest flood deposits several reaches along natural levees had no measureable deposits, despite being inundated by ~4 m of flood water. In such cases the angle of the upstream channel relative to the downstream cutbank is suggested as a possible control on the pattern of sedimentation. Despite the magnitude and duration of the 2011 flood, the overall thickness of flood deposits was not very high and the geologic legacy of the event is likely to be unimpressive. Most sediment samples was < 10 mm in thickness, which could be due to the timing of the flood event superimposed upon an overall declining trend in suspended sediment load. The peak discharge was associated with a suspended sediment load of 727,400 tonnes/day. This is notably lower than the maximum suspended sediment load of 1,046,000 tonnes/day, which likely caused sediment exhaustion because of occurring about two months prior to inundation. The thickness of the 2011 flood deposits were about an order of magnitude less than the 1973 flood deposits (11 to 530 mm). Since the early 1900s the sediment budget of the Lower Mississippi has been fundamentally altered. Suspended sediment loads have declined by more than fifty percent, and could contribute to the overall low amount of sedimentation.

  19. Uncorrected land-use planning highlighted by flooding: the Alba case study (Piedmont, Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luino, F.; Turconi, L.; Petrea, C.; Nigrelli, G.

    2012-07-01

    Alba is a town of over 30 000 inhabitants located along the Tanaro River (Piedmont, northwestern Italy) and is famous for its wine and white truffles. Many important industries and companies are based in Alba, including the famous confectionery group Ferrero. The town suffered considerably from a flood that occurred on 5-6 November 1994. Forty-eight percent of the urban area was inundated, causing severe damage and killing nine people. After the flood, the Alba area was analysed in detail to determine the reasons for its vulnerability. Information on serious floods in this area since 1800 was gathered from official records, state technical office reports, unpublished documents in the municipal archives, and articles published in local and national newspapers. Maps, plans and aerial photographs (since 1954) were examined to reconstruct Alba's urban development over the last two centuries and the planform changes of the Tanaro River. The results were compared with the effects of the November 1994 flood, which was mapped from aerial photographs taken immediately after the flood, field surveys and eyewitness reports. The territory of Alba was subdivided into six categories: residential; public service; industrial, commercial and hotels; sports areas, utilities and standards (public gardens, parks, athletics grounds, private and public sport clubs); aggregate plants and dumps; and agriculture and riverine strip. The six categories were then grouped into three classes with different flooding-vulnerability levels according to various parameters. Using GIS, the three river corridors along the Tanaro identified by the Autorità di Bacino del Fiume Po were overlaid on the three classes to produce a final map of the risk areas. This study shows that the historic floods and their dynamics have not been duly considered in the land-use planning of Alba. The zones that were most heavily damaged in the 1994 flood were those that were frequently affected in the past and sites of more recent urbanisation. Despite recurrent severe flooding of the Tanaro River and its tributaries, areas along the riverbed and its paleochannels have been increasingly used for infrastructure and building (e.g., roads, a municipal dump, a prison, natural aggregate plants, a nomad camp), which has often interfered with the natural spread of the floodwaters. Since the 1994 flood, many remedial projects have been completed along the Tanaro and its tributaries, including levees, bank protection, concrete walls and floodway channels. In spite of these costly projects, some areas remain at high risk for flooding. The method used, which considered historical data, river corridors identified by hydraulic calculations, geomorphological aspects and land-use planning, can indicate with good accuracy flood-prone areas and in consequence to be an useful tool for the coherent planning of urban expansion and the mitigation of flood risk.

  20. POST-MINING DEVELOPMENT USING RESOURCES FROM FLOODED UNDERGROUND MINE WORKINGS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Post-mining issues of land and surface utilization now serve to accentuate how important it is to incorporate sustainable development aspects into hard rock mining. In an effort to revitalize lands degraded by historic mining, 10 acres of mine tailings near the Belmont Mine have...

  1. SCHOOL SITES. SELECTION AND DEVELOPMENT.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    REIDA, G.W.

    CERTAIN CRITICAL CRITERIA SHOULD BE CONSIDERED IN SELECTING THE SCHOOL SITE. IMPORTANT IS THE STUDY OF SUCH FACTORS AS PRESENT AND PROJECTED PUPIL POPULATION, THE SCHOOL MASTER PLAN, MAIN THOROUGHFARES, DWELLINGS, LAND USE, SOILS, (SHOWN BY SERVICE MAPS), EXISTING SCHOOL FACILITIES AND ATTENDANCE, BOUNDARIES, UTILITY SERVICES AND FLOOD CONTROLS.…

  2. The structure of hydrophobic gas diffusion electrodes.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giner, J.

    1972-01-01

    The 'flooded agglomerate' model of the Teflon-bonded gas diffusion electrode is discussed. A mathematical treatment of the 'flooded agglomerate' model is given; it can be used to predict the performance of the electrode as a function of measurable physical parameters.

  3. Mitigation methods for temporary concrete traffic barrier effects on flood water flows.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-07-01

    A combined experimental and analytical approach was put together to evaluate the hydraulic performance and : stability of TxDOT standard and modified temporary concrete traffic barriers (TCTBs) in extreme flood. : Rating curves are developed for diff...

  4. Distillation Column Flooding Predictor

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    George E. Dzyacky

    2010-11-23

    The Flooding Predictor™ is a patented advanced control technology proven in research at the Separations Research Program, University of Texas at Austin, to increase distillation column throughput by over 6%, while also increasing energy efficiency by 10%. The research was conducted under a U. S. Department of Energy Cooperative Agreement awarded to George Dzyacky of 2ndpoint, LLC. The Flooding Predictor™ works by detecting the incipient flood point and controlling the column closer to its actual hydraulic limit than historical practices have allowed. Further, the technology uses existing column instrumentation, meaning no additional refining infrastructure is required. Refiners often push distillationmore » columns to maximize throughput, improve separation, or simply to achieve day-to-day optimization. Attempting to achieve such operating objectives is a tricky undertaking that can result in flooding. Operators and advanced control strategies alike rely on the conventional use of delta-pressure instrumentation to approximate the column’s approach to flood. But column delta-pressure is more an inference of the column’s approach to flood than it is an actual measurement of it. As a consequence, delta pressure limits are established conservatively in order to operate in a regime where the column is never expected to flood. As a result, there is much “left on the table” when operating in such a regime, i.e. the capacity difference between controlling the column to an upper delta-pressure limit and controlling it to the actual hydraulic limit. The Flooding Predictor™, an innovative pattern recognition technology, controls columns at their actual hydraulic limit, which research shows leads to a throughput increase of over 6%. Controlling closer to the hydraulic limit also permits operation in a sweet spot of increased energy-efficiency. In this region of increased column loading, the Flooding Predictor is able to exploit the benefits of higher liquid/vapor traffic that produce increased contact area and lead to substantial increases in separation efficiency – which translates to a 10% increase in energy efficiency on a BTU/bbl basis. The Flooding Predictor™ operates on the principle that between five to sixty minutes in advance of a flooding event, certain column variables experience an oscillation, a pre-flood pattern. The pattern recognition system of the Flooding Predictor™ utilizes the mathematical first derivative of certain column variables to identify the column’s pre-flood pattern(s). This pattern is a very brief, highly repeatable, simultaneous movement among the derivative values of certain column variables. While all column variables experience negligible random noise generated from the natural frequency of the process, subtle pre-flood patterns are revealed among sub-sets of the derivative values of column variables as the column approaches its hydraulic limit. The sub-set of column variables that comprise the pre-flood pattern is identified empirically through in a two-step process. First, 2ndpoint’s proprietary off-line analysis tool is used to mine historical data for pre-flood patterns. Second, the column is flood-tested to fine-tune the pattern recognition for commissioning. Then the Flooding Predictor™ is implemented as closed-loop advanced control strategy on the plant’s distributed control system (DCS), thus automating control of the column at its hydraulic limit.« less

  5. Challenges in estimating the health impact of Hurricane Sandy using macro-level flood data.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lieberman-Cribbin, W.; Liu, B.; Schneider, S.; Schwartz, R.; Taioli, E.

    2016-12-01

    Background: Hurricane Sandy caused extensive physical and economic damage but the long-term health impacts are unknown. Flooding is a central component of hurricane exposure, influencing health through multiple pathways that unfold over months after flooding recedes. This study assesses concordance in Federal Emergency Management (FEMA) and self-reported flood exposure after Hurricane Sandy to elucidate discrepancies in flood exposure assessments. Methods: Three meter resolution New York State flood data was obtained from the FEMA Modeling Task Force Hurricane Sandy Impact Analysis. FEMA data was compared to self-reported flood data obtained through validated questionnaires from New York City and Long Island residents following Sandy. Flooding was defined as both dichotomous and continuous variables and analyses were performed in SAS v9.4 and ArcGIS 10.3.1. Results: There was a moderate agreement between FEMA and self-reported flooding (Kappa statistic 0.46) and continuous (Spearman's correlation coefficient 0.50) measures of flood exposure. Flooding was self-reported and recorded by FEMA in 23.6% of cases, while agreement between the two measures on no flooding was 51.1%. Flooding was self-reported but not recorded by FEMA in 8.5% of cases, while flooding was not self-reported but indicated by FEMA in 16.8% of cases. In this last instance, 84% of people (173/207; 83.6%) resided in an apartment (no flooding reported). Spatially, the most concordance resided in the interior of New York City / Long Island, while the greatest areas of discordance were concentrated in the Rockaway Peninsula and Long Beach, especially among those living in apartments. Conclusions: There were significant discrepancies between FEMA and self-reported flood data. While macro-level FEMA flood data is a relatively less expensive and faster way to provide exposure estimates spanning larger geographic areas affected by Hurricane Sandy than micro-level estimates from cohort studies, macro-level exposure estimates may underestimate the full flooding and health impacts of the hurricane. Future disaster preparedness efforts must integrate micro and macro-level flood exposures to produce the most accurate evaluation of health impacts in affected populations.

  6. Of floods, sandbags and simulations: Urban resilience to natural disasters and the performance of disaster management organisations under change.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dressler, Gunnar; Mueller, Birgit; Frank, Karin; Kuhlicke, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Natural disasters and in particular floods have become a strong threat to urban communities in the last decades. In just eleven years (2002, 2013) two centenary river floods have hit Eastern Germany, causing damages of 9.1 billion € (2002) and 6.7 billion € (2013, first estimate), making them the most costly flood events in German history. Many cities in the Free State of Saxony that were strongly hit by both floods are additionally challenged by demographic change with an ageing society and outmigration leading to population shrinkage. This also constrains the coping capacity of disaster management services, especially those of volunteer-based disaster management organisations such as fire brigades, leading to an increased vulnerability of the community at risk. On the other hand, new technologies such as social media have led to rapid information spread and self-organisation of tremendous numbers of civil volunteers willing to help. How do responsible organisations deal with the challenges associated with demographic change, as well as with expected increases in flood frequency and intensity, and what strategies could enhance their performance in the future? To explore these questions, we developed an agent-based simulation model. It is based on socio-demographic settings of the community, communication and coordination structures of disaster management as well as transportation infrastructure for resources and emergency forces. The model is developed in exchange with relevant stakeholders including experts of local disaster management organisations and authority representatives. The goal of the model is to a) assess the performance of disaster management organisations and determine performance limits with respect to forecast lead times and respective coping times of disaster management organisations and b) use it as a discussion tool with these organisations and authorities to identify weak points as well as new options and strategies to ensure protection and contribute to the communities' resilience. To achieve this goal we use different scenarios to explore the effects of change processes on the performance of disaster management organisations, e.g. rising demands posed onto disaster management organisations due to stronger floods and lower capacities caused by resource constraints. We especially focus on formal coordination structures within and between organisations, as well as informal structures such as emerging networks of volunteers or informal communication between organisations.

  7. Evaluation of a Socio-Hydrologic Model for the Rebuilding of Biloxi, Mississippi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calhoun, J. L.; O'Donnell, F. C.; Burton, C. G.

    2017-12-01

    In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina ripped through the Gulf Coast of the United States causing billions in damage. The storm cost the City of Biloxi, Mississippi $355 million in infrastructure repair, which is being constructed with funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Approximately 30% of the city's storm systems including storm drains, bridges and culverts are being replaced and updated utilizing FEMA Hazard Mitigation funding to lessen the impact of future natural disasters. The infrastructure is being upgraded from conveying a 4% annual chance storm event to a 1% annual chance storm event. An extensive socio-economic data set of the impacts of Hurricane Katrina along the Mississippi Gulf Coast was used to analyze recovery in the area. The recovery data set assessed the area directly after the storm in 2005 thru 2010 with an analysis of recovery five years after the storm. This study uses a dynamic socio-hydrologic model with modifications to relate the change in flow capacity of engineered structures and socio-economic processes. The results will be used to assess the hypothesis that raising flood protection increases the base flood elevation levels and therefore requires a higher level of flood protection. The increase in flood protect eases the fears of the community leading them to not require additional flood protection when developing in flood prone areas and strengthening the socio-hydrologic association. The results will also be evaluated to create a tool for the City of Biloxi to improve their resilience from future hurricanes and storm surge events.

  8. Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures.

    PubMed

    Cherqui, Frédéric; Belmeziti, Ali; Granger, Damien; Sourdril, Antoine; Le Gauffre, Pascal

    2015-05-01

    Flood protection is one of the traditional functions of any drainage system, and it remains a major issue in many cities because of economic and health impact. Heavy rain flooding has been well studied and existing simulation software can be used to predict and improve level of protection. However, simulating minor flooding remains highly complex, due to the numerous possible causes related to operational deficiencies or negligent behaviour. According to the literature, causes of blockages vary widely from one case to another: it is impossible to provide utility managers with effective recommendations on how to improve the level of protection. It is therefore vital to analyse each context in order to define an appropriate strategy. Here we propose a method to represent and assess the flooding risk, using GIS and data gathered during operation and maintenance. Our method also identifies potential management responses. The approach proposed aims to provide decision makers with clear and comprehensible information. Our method has been successfully applied to the Urban Community of Bordeaux (France) on 4895 interventions related to flooding recorded during the 2009-2011 period. Results have shown the relative importance of different issues, such as human behaviour (grease, etc.) or operational deficiencies (roots, etc.), and lead to identify corrective and proactive. This study also confirms that blockages are not always directly due to the network itself and its deterioration. Many causes depend on environmental and operating conditions on the network and often require collaboration between municipal departments in charge of roads, green spaces, etc. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Benchmarking urban flood models of varying complexity and scale using high resolution terrestrial LiDAR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fewtrell, Timothy J.; Duncan, Alastair; Sampson, Christopher C.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Bates, Paul D.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes benchmark testing of a diffusive and an inertial formulation of the de St. Venant equations implemented within the LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model using high resolution terrestrial LiDAR data. The models are applied to a hypothetical flooding scenario in a section of Alcester, UK which experienced significant surface water flooding in the June and July floods of 2007 in the UK. The sensitivity of water elevation and velocity simulations to model formulation and grid resolution are analyzed. The differences in depth and velocity estimates between the diffusive and inertial approximations are within 10% of the simulated value but inertial effects persist at the wetting front in steep catchments. Both models portray a similar scale dependency between 50 cm and 5 m resolution which reiterates previous findings that errors in coarse scale topographic data sets are significantly larger than differences between numerical approximations. In particular, these results confirm the need to distinctly represent the camber and curbs of roads in the numerical grid when simulating surface water flooding events. Furthermore, although water depth estimates at grid scales coarser than 1 m appear robust, velocity estimates at these scales seem to be inconsistent compared to the 50 cm benchmark. The inertial formulation is shown to reduce computational cost by up to three orders of magnitude at high resolutions thus making simulations at this scale viable in practice compared to diffusive models. For the first time, this paper highlights the utility of high resolution terrestrial LiDAR data to inform small-scale flood risk management studies.

  10. A statistical approach to evaluate flood risk at the regional level: an application to Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rossi, Mauro; Marchesini, Ivan; Salvati, Paola; Donnini, Marco; Guzzetti, Fausto; Sterlacchini, Simone; Zazzeri, Marco; Bonazzi, Alessandro; Carlesi, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Floods are frequent and widespread in Italy, causing every year multiple fatalities and extensive damages to public and private structures. A pre-requisite for the development of mitigation schemes, including financial instruments such as insurance, is the ability to quantify their costs starting from the estimation of the underlying flood hazard. However, comprehensive and coherent information on flood prone areas, and estimates on the frequency and intensity of flood events, are not often available at scales appropriate for risk pooling and diversification. In Italy, River Basins Hydrogeological Plans (PAI), prepared by basin administrations, are the basic descriptive, regulatory, technical and operational tools for environmental planning in flood prone areas. Nevertheless, such plans do not cover the entire Italian territory, having significant gaps along the minor hydrographic network and in ungauged basins. Several process-based modelling approaches have been used by different basin administrations for the flood hazard assessment, resulting in an inhomogeneous hazard zonation of the territory. As a result, flood hazard assessments expected and damage estimations across the different Italian basin administrations are not always coherent. To overcome these limitations, we propose a simplified multivariate statistical approach for the regional flood hazard zonation coupled with a flood impact model. This modelling approach has been applied in different Italian basin administrations, allowing a preliminary but coherent and comparable estimation of the flood hazard and the relative impact. Model performances are evaluated comparing the predicted flood prone areas with the corresponding PAI zonation. The proposed approach will provide standardized information (following the EU Floods Directive specifications) on flood risk at a regional level which can in turn be more readily applied to assess flood economic impacts. Furthermore, in the assumption of an appropriate flood risk statistical characterization, the proposed procedure could be applied straightforward outside the national borders, particularly in areas with similar geo-environmental settings.

  11. Hydrologic data for urban studies in the Houston, Texas, metropolitan area, 1979

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Liscum, Fred; Weigel, Jay F.; Bruchmiller, J.P.

    1982-01-01

    Hydrologic investigations of urban watersheds in Texas were begun by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1954. Studies are now in progress in Austin, Houston, and San Antonio.The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Houston, began studies in the Houston metropolitan area in 1964. The program was expanded in 1968 to include collection of water-quality data. The objectives of the Houston urban-hydrology study are as follows:To determine, on the basis of historical data and hydro!ogic analyses, the magnitude and frequency of flood peaks and flood volumes.To determine the effect of urban development on flood peaks and volumes.To ascertain the variation in water quality for different flow conditions and different seasons.This report, the sixteenth in a series of reports to be published annually, is primarily applicable to objective 2. The report presents hydro!ogic data collected in the Houston urban area for the 1979 water year (October 1, 1978 to September 30, 1979).A report by Johnson and Sayre (1973) utilized records collected from 1965 to 1969 to make a study of the effects of urbanization on floods in the Houston area. The report also summarizes various basin parameters. A report by Waddell, Massey, and Jennings (1979) presents data on computed runoff from the Houston area and computed concentrations and loads of selected waterquality constituents combined in the inflow to Galveston Bay. The study utilized a variation of the "STORM" model developed by the Hydro!ogic Engineering Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. A report prepared by Li scum and Massey (1980) presents a technique for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in the Houston area from drainage areas, bank-full conveyance, and percentage of urban development.A definition of terms related to streamflow, water quality, and other hydrologic data, as used in this report, are defined in "U.S. Geological Survey, Water-resources data for Texas, volume 2, 1979."To facilitate the publication and distribution of this report at the earliest feasible time, some material has been included that does not conform to the formal publications standards of the U.S. Geological Survey. 

  12. Remote sensing of rainfall for flash flood prediction in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gourley, J. J.; Flamig, Z.; Vergara, H. J.; Clark, R. A.; Kirstetter, P.; Terti, G.; Hong, Y.; Howard, K.

    2015-12-01

    This presentation will briefly describe the Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system that ingests all NEXRAD and Canadian weather radar data and produces accurate rainfall estimates at 1-km resolution every 2 min. This real-time system, which was recently transitioned for operational use in the National Weather Service, provides forcing to a suite of flash flood prediction tools. The Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project provides 6-hr forecasts of impending flash flooding across the US at the same 1-km grid cell resolution as the MRMS rainfall forcing. This presentation will describe the ensemble hydrologic modeling framework, provide an evaluation at gauged basins over a 10-year period, and show the FLASH tools' performance during the record-setting floods in Oklahoma and Texas in May and June 2015.

  13. Examining the relationship between infectious diseases and flooding in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Lisa; Murray, Virginia

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Many infectious diseases are sensitive to climatic changes; specifically, flooding. This systematic literature review aimed to strengthen the quality and completeness of evidence on infectious diseases following flooding, relevant to Europe. Methods A systematic literature review from 2004–2012 was performed. Focused searches of the following databases were conducted: Medline, Scopus, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Evidence Aid. Personal communications with key informants were also reviewed. Results Thirty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Evidence suggested that water-borne, rodent-borne, and vector-borne diseases have been associated with flooding in Europe, although at a lower incidence than developing countries. Conclusion Disease surveillance and early warning systems, coupled with effective prevention and response capabilities, can reduce current and future vulnerability to infectious diseases following flooding. PMID:28228994

  14. Flood Frequency Analysis With Historical and Paleoflood Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stedinger, Jery R.; Cohn, Timothy A.

    1986-05-01

    An investigation is made of flood quantile estimators which can employ "historical" and paleoflood information in flood frequency analyses. Two categories of historical information are considered: "censored" data, where the magnitudes of historical flood peaks are known; and "binomial" data, where only threshold exceedance information is available. A Monte Carlo study employing the two-parameter lognormal distribution shows that maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) can extract the equivalent of an additional 10-30 years of gage record from a 50-year period of historical observation. The MLE routines are shown to be substantially better than an adjusted-moment estimator similar to the one recommended in Bulletin 17B of the United States Water Resources Council Hydrology Committee (1982). The MLE methods performed well even when floods were drawn from other than the assumed lognormal distribution.

  15. Evaluation of sub daily satellite rainfall estimates through flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matingo, Thomas; Gumindoga, Webster; Makurira, Hodson

    2018-05-01

    Flash floods are experienced almost annually in the ungauged Mbire District of the Middle Zambezi Basin. Studies related to hydrological modelling (rainfall-runoff) and flood forecasting require major inputs such as precipitation which, due to shortage of observed data, are increasingly using indirect methods for estimating precipitation. This study therefore evaluated performance of CMORPH and TRMM satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) for 30 min, 1 h, 3 h and daily intensities through hydrologic and flash flood modelling in the Lower Middle Zambezi Basin for the period 2013-2016. On a daily timestep, uncorrected CMORPH and TRMM show Probability of Detection (POD) of 61 and 59 %, respectively, when compared to rain gauge observations. The best performance using Correlation Coefficient (CC) was 70 and 60 % on daily timesteps for CMORPH and TRMM, respectively. The best RMSE for CMORPH was 0.81 % for 30 min timestep and for TRMM was 2, 11 % on 3 h timestep. For the year 2014 to 2015, the HEC-HMS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-Hydrological Modelling System) daily model calibration Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) for Musengezi sub catchment was 59 % whilst for Angwa it was 55 %. Angwa sub-catchment daily NSE results for the period 2015-2016 was 61 %. HEC-RAS flash flood modeling at 100, 50 and 25 year return periods for Angwa sub catchment, inundated 811 and 867 ha for TRMM rainfall simulated discharge at 3 h and daily timesteps, respectively. For CMORPH generated rainfall, the inundation was 818, 876, 890 and 891 ha at daily, 3 h, 1 h and 30 min timesteps. The 30 min time step for CMORPH effectively captures flash floods with the measure of agreement between simulated flood extent and ground control points of 69 %. For TRMM, the 3 h timestep effectively captures flash floods with coefficient of 67 %. The study therefore concludes that satellite products are most effective in capturing localized hydrological processes such as flash floods for sub-daily rainfall, because of improved spatial and temporal resolution.

  16. Nuclear Proteomics Reveals the Role of Protein Synthesis and Chromatin Structure in Root Tip of Soybean during the Initial Stage of Flooding Stress.

    PubMed

    Yin, Xiaojian; Komatsu, Setsuko

    2016-07-01

    To identify the upstream events controlling the regulation of flooding-responsive proteins in soybean, proteomic analysis of nuclear proteins in root tip was performed. By using nuclear fractions, which were highly enriched, a total of 365 nuclear proteins were changed in soybean root tip at initial stage of flooding stress. Four exon-junction complex-related proteins and NOP1/NOP56, which function in upstream of 60S preribosome biogenesis, were decreased in flooded soybean. Furthermore, proteomic analysis of crude protein extract revealed that the protein translation was suppressed by continuous flooding stress. Seventeen chromatin structure-related nuclear proteins were decreased in response to flooding stress. Out of them, histone H3 was clearly decreased with protein abundance and mRNA expression levels at the initial flooding stress. Additionally, a number of protein synthesis-, RNA-, and DNA-related nuclear proteins were decreased in a time-dependent manner. mRNA expressions of genes encoding the significantly changed flooding-responsive nuclear proteins were inhibited by the transcriptional inhibitor, actinomycin D. These results suggest that protein translation is suppressed through inhibition of preribosome biogenesis- and mRNA processing-related proteins in nuclei of soybean root tip at initial flooding stress. In addition, flooding stress may regulate histone variants with gene expression in root tip.

  17. Updating flood maps efficiently using existing hydraulic models, very-high-accuracy elevation data, and a geographic information system; a pilot study on the Nisqually River, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Joseph L.; Haluska, Tana L.; Kresch, David L.

    2001-01-01

    A method of updating flood inundation maps at a fraction of the expense of using traditional methods was piloted in Washington State as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Urban Geologic and Hydrologic Hazards Initiative. Large savings in expense may be achieved by building upon previous Flood Insurance Studies and automating the process of flood delineation with a Geographic Information System (GIS); increases in accuracy and detail result from the use of very-high-accuracy elevation data and automated delineation; and the resulting digital data sets contain valuable ancillary information such as flood depth, as well as greatly facilitating map storage and utility. The method consists of creating stage-discharge relations from the archived output of the existing hydraulic model, using these relations to create updated flood stages for recalculated flood discharges, and using a GIS to automate the map generation process. Many of the effective flood maps were created in the late 1970?s and early 1980?s, and suffer from a number of well recognized deficiencies such as out-of-date or inaccurate estimates of discharges for selected recurrence intervals, changes in basin characteristics, and relatively low quality elevation data used for flood delineation. FEMA estimates that 45 percent of effective maps are over 10 years old (FEMA, 1997). Consequently, Congress has mandated the updating and periodic review of existing maps, which have cost the Nation almost 3 billion (1997) dollars. The need to update maps and the cost of doing so were the primary motivations for piloting a more cost-effective and efficient updating method. New technologies such as Geographic Information Systems and LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) elevation mapping are key to improving the efficiency of flood map updating, but they also improve the accuracy, detail, and usefulness of the resulting digital flood maps. GISs produce digital maps without manual estimation of inundated areas between cross sections, and can generate working maps across a broad range of scales, for any selected area, and overlayed with easily updated cultural features. Local governments are aggressively collecting very-high-accuracy elevation data for numerous reasons; this not only lowers the cost and increases accuracy of flood maps, but also inherently boosts the level of community involvement in the mapping process. These elevation data are also ideal for hydraulic modeling, should an existing model be judged inadequate.

  18. Muddy floods in Saxony: occurrence, damages and costs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arévalo, S. A.; Reichel, S.; Schindewolf, M.; Schmidt, J.

    2012-04-01

    A muddy flood is a natural hazard with small impact area. Usually a single event covers only a part of a street and some properties, in some cases it might affect up to a whole neighbourhood. Due to this small spatial extend the public awareness is generally low. On the other hand we know from random reports that in some areas, like the Saxon loess belt region, muddy floods do occur repeatedly. The damages caused by muddy floods range from mud covered streets to flooded cellars and houses. Although the awareness of muddy floods in Europe has increased during the last decade, there is still very few information about frequency, spatial extend and the related costs. There have been investigations of muddy flood occurrence in some European countries like England, France, Belgium, Poland and Slovakia, but there is no information available about the muddy flood occurrence in Germany. That is because German state departments do not usually register muddy floods and neither do insurance companies. The only institution that is almost always informed when muddy floods occur are local fire brigades. That is why in this investigation an enquiry of all fire brigades in the study area of the Saxon hilly loess region was performed. The aim was to gain first information about the general dimension of the problem, a temporal and spatial distribution as well as a first appraisal of costs. The obtained database of muddy floods will also serve for further investigation of the problem.

  19. Numerical Analysis of Flood modeling of upper Citarum River under Extreme Flood Condition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-02-01

    This paper focuses on how to approach the numerical method and computation to analyse flood parameters. Water level and flood discharge are the flood parameters solved by numerical methods approach. Numerical method performed on this paper for unsteady flow conditions have strengths and weaknesses, among others easily applied to the following cases in which the boundary irregular flow. The study area is in upper Citarum Watershed, Bandung, West Java. This paper uses computation approach with Force2 programming and HEC-RAS to solve the flow problem in upper Citarum River, to investigate and forecast extreme flood condition. Numerical analysis based on extreme flood events that have occurred in the upper Citarum watershed. The result of water level parameter modeling and extreme flood discharge compared with measurement data to analyse validation. The inundation area about flood that happened in 2010 is about 75.26 square kilometres. Comparing two-method show that the FEM analysis with Force2 programs has the best approach to validation data with Nash Index is 0.84 and HEC-RAS that is 0.76 for water level. For discharge data Nash Index obtained the result analysis use Force2 is 0.80 and with use HEC-RAS is 0.79.

  20. Can Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Sets Be Used to Reproduce Flooding Over Large Scales?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Bates, Paul D.; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Kettner, Albert J.

    2017-10-01

    Floods are costly to global economies and can be exceptionally lethal. The ability to produce consistent flood hazard maps over large areas could provide a significant contribution to reducing such losses, as the lack of knowledge concerning flood risk is a major factor in the transformation of river floods into flood disasters. In order to accurately reproduce flooding in river channels and floodplains, high spatial resolution hydrodynamic models are needed. Despite being computationally expensive, recent advances have made their continental to global implementation feasible, although inputs for long-term simulations may require the use of reanalysis meteorological products especially in data-poor regions. We employ a coupled hydrologic/hydrodynamic model cascade forced by the 20CRv2 reanalysis data set and evaluate its ability to reproduce flood inundation area and volume for Australia during the 1973-2012 period. Ensemble simulations using the reanalysis data were performed to account for uncertainty in the meteorology and compared with a validated benchmark simulation. Results show that the reanalysis ensemble capture the inundated areas and volumes relatively well, with correlations for the ensemble mean of 0.82 and 0.85 for area and volume, respectively, although the meteorological ensemble spread propagates in large uncertainty of the simulated flood characteristics.

  1. Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dressler, Gunnar; Müller, Birgit; Frank, Karin; Kuhlicke, Christian

    2016-10-01

    Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs) are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

  2. Regional flood impact assessment for Kiel and Eckernförde, Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shustikova, Iuliia; Viavattene, Christophe; Seiß, Guntram

    2017-04-01

    It is well-observed that extreme flood events bring considerable destruction to coastal communities. The estimates of damage increases when direct and indirect losses are both considered in the assessment. This study applied the INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model which is designed to estimate and compare not only tangible but also intangible losses such as risk to life, recovery mechanisms and household displacement. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) was performed in order to compare hotspots of high flood risk on the regional scale and detect which impact indicators influence results the most. INDRA allowed assessing the following impact indicators: direct damages to buildings and roads, transport disruption, risk to life and financial recovery mechanisms of private households and businesses. The focus was on two hotspots of flood risk, where direct and indirect impacts from 200 years flood were assessed and analyzed in terms of relative importance to the region. The region here was defined as municipalities located on the Baltic Sea coast within the Schleswig-Holstein state, Germany. The hotspots are the towns of Kiel and Eckernförde. They are urban areas with a high concentration of people and assets, which previously experienced extreme flood events. From the performed investigation it was found out that modeled flood differently impacts Kiel and Eckernförde. The results produced by MCA show that the scores of direct and indirect damage are slightly higher in Eckernförde than in Kiel. Transport disruption is a compelling element in the performed regional impact assessment and demonstrated immense weight. Extreme events may pose significant direct and indirect impacts on the coastal roads, obstructing not only the access to important landmarks such as hospitals, train stations, harbors, etc. but also to contiguous municipalities. Yet, the analysis showed that other impact indicators are rather of local importance and would not cause vast damage on a regional scale. Nonetheless, the study suggests, that these effects should not be underestimated in terms of losses.

  3. Variations of streambed vertical hydraulic conductivity before and after a flood season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Guangdong; Shu, Longcang; Lu, Chengpeng; Chen, Xunhong; Zhang, Xiao; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Zhu, Jingsi

    2015-11-01

    The change of vertical hydraulic conductivity ( K v) before and after a flood season is crucial in understanding the long-term temporal variation of streambed permeability. Therefore, in this study, a detailed K v field investigation was conducted at an in-channel site within the Dawen River, China, before and after a flood season. In-situ falling-head permeameter tests were performed for the determination of K v. The tests were conducted using a 10 × 10 grid, at five different depths. In total, 871 valid K v values from layers 1-5 were obtained. The Kruskal-Wallis test on these K v values before and after the flood season shows they belonged to different populations. The sediments before the flood season primarily consisted of sand and gravel, whereas after the flood season, patchy distribution of silt/clay occurred in the sandy streambed and silt/clay content increased with the increasing depth; under the losing condition during flooding, downward movement of water brought fine particles into the coarse sediments, partially silting the pores. Accordingly, the K v values after the flood season had a smaller mean and median, and a higher level of heterogeneity, compared to those before the flood season. Additionally, the distribution pattern in K v across the stream differed before and after flood season; after the flood season, there was an increasing trend in K v from the south bank to the north bank. Overall, the contrasts of K v before and after the flood season were predominantly subject to the infiltration of fine particles.

  4. Modeling urban coastal flood severity from crowd-sourced flood reports using Poisson regression and Random Forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

    2018-04-01

    Sea level rise has already caused more frequent and severe coastal flooding and this trend will likely continue. Flood prediction is an essential part of a coastal city's capacity to adapt to and mitigate this growing problem. Complex coastal urban hydrological systems however, do not always lend themselves easily to physically-based flood prediction approaches. This paper presents a method for using a data-driven approach to estimate flood severity in an urban coastal setting using crowd-sourced data, a non-traditional but growing data source, along with environmental observation data. Two data-driven models, Poisson regression and Random Forest regression, are trained to predict the number of flood reports per storm event as a proxy for flood severity, given extensive environmental data (i.e., rainfall, tide, groundwater table level, and wind conditions) as input. The method is demonstrated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 to October 2016. Quality-controlled, crowd-sourced street flooding reports ranging from 1 to 159 per storm event for 45 storm events are used to train and evaluate the models. Random Forest performed better than Poisson regression at predicting the number of flood reports and had a lower false negative rate. From the Random Forest model, total cumulative rainfall was by far the most dominant input variable in predicting flood severity, followed by low tide and lower low tide. These methods serve as a first step toward using data-driven methods for spatially and temporally detailed coastal urban flood prediction.

  5. Optimized polymer enhanced foam flooding for ordinary heavy oil reservoir after cross-linked polymer flooding.

    PubMed

    Sun, Chen; Hou, Jian; Pan, Guangming; Xia, Zhizeng

    2016-01-01

    A successful cross-linked polymer flooding has been implemented in JD reservoir, an ordinary heavy oil reservoir with high permeability zones. For all that, there are still significant volumes of continuous oil remaining in place, which can not be easily extracted due to stronger vertical heterogeneity. Considering selective plugging feature, polymer enhanced foam (PEF) flooding was taken as following EOR technology for JD reservoir. For low cost and rich source, natural gas was used as foaming gas in our work. In the former work, the surfactant systems CEA/FSA1 was recommended as foam agent for natural gas foam flooding after series of compatibility studies. Foam performance evaluation experiments showed that foaming volume reached 110 mL, half-life time reached 40 min, and dimensionless filter coefficient reached 1.180 when CEA/FSA1 reacted with oil produced by JD reservoir. To compare the recovery efficiency by different EOR technologies, series of oil displacement experiments were carried out in a parallel core system which contained cores with relatively high and low permeability. EOR technologies concerned in our work include further cross-linked polymer (C-P) flooding, surfactant-polymer (S-P) flooding, and PEF flooding. Results showed that PEF flooding had the highest enhanced oil recovery of 19.2 % original oil in place (OOIP), followed by S-P flooding (9.6 % OOIP) and C-P flooding (6.1 % OOIP). Also, produced liquid percentage results indicated PEF flooding can efficiently promote the oil recovery in the lower permeability core by modifying the injection profile.

  6. Environmental impact of flood: the study of arsenic speciation in exchangeable fraction of flood deposits of Warta river (Poland) in determination of "finger prints" of the pollutants origin and the ways of the migration.

    PubMed

    Kozak, Lidia; Skolasińska, Katarzyna; Niedzielski, Przemysław

    2012-09-01

    The paper presents the application of the hyphenated technique - high-performance liquid chromatography with atomic absorption spectrometry detection with hydride generation (HPLC-HG-AAS) - in the determinations of inorganic forms of arsenic: As(III) and As(V) in the exchangeable fraction of flood deposits. The separation of analytical signals of the determined arsenic forms was obtained using an ion-exchange column in a chromatographic system with the atomic absorption spectrometer as a detector, at the determination limits of 5 ngg(-1) for As(III) and 10 ngg(-1) for As(V). Flood deposits were collected after big flood event in valley of the Warta river which took place in summer 2010. Samples of overbank deposits were taken in Poznań agglomeration and vicinity (NW Poland). The results of determinations of arsenic forms in the exchangeable fraction of flood deposits allowed indication of a hypothetical path of deposits migration transported by a river during flood and environmental threats posed by their deposition by flood. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. The Financial Benefit of Early Flood Warnings in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah L.; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Parker, Dennis J.; Richardson, David; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    Effective disaster risk management relies on science based solutions to close the gap between prevention and preparedness measures. The outcome of consultations on the UNIDSR post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction highlight the need for cross-border early warning systems to strengthen the preparedness phases of disaster risk management in order to save people's lives and property and reduce the overall impact of severe events. In particular, continental and global scale flood forecasting systems provide vital information to various decision makers with which early warnings of floods can be made. Here the potential monetary benefits of early flood warnings using the example of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) are calculated based on pan-European Flood damage data and calculations of potential flood damage reductions. The benefits are of the order of 400 Euro for every 1 Euro invested. Because of the uncertainties which accompany the calculation, a large sensitivity analysis is performed in order to develop an envelope of possible financial benefits. Current EFAS system skill is compared against perfect forecasts to demonstrate the importance of further improving the skill of the forecasts. Improving the response to warnings is also essential in reaping the benefits of flood early warnings.

  8. Combining information from multiple flood projections in a hierarchical Bayesian framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Vine, Nataliya

    2016-04-01

    This study demonstrates, in the context of flood frequency analysis, the potential of a recently proposed hierarchical Bayesian approach to combine information from multiple models. The approach explicitly accommodates shared multimodel discrepancy as well as the probabilistic nature of the flood estimates, and treats the available models as a sample from a hypothetical complete (but unobserved) set of models. The methodology is applied to flood estimates from multiple hydrological projections (the Future Flows Hydrology data set) for 135 catchments in the UK. The advantages of the approach are shown to be: (1) to ensure adequate "baseline" with which to compare future changes; (2) to reduce flood estimate uncertainty; (3) to maximize use of statistical information in circumstances where multiple weak predictions individually lack power, but collectively provide meaningful information; (4) to diminish the importance of model consistency when model biases are large; and (5) to explicitly consider the influence of the (model performance) stationarity assumption. Moreover, the analysis indicates that reducing shared model discrepancy is the key to further reduction of uncertainty in the flood frequency analysis. The findings are of value regarding how conclusions about changing exposure to flooding are drawn, and to flood frequency change attribution studies.

  9. How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

    2017-04-01

    Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

  10. Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Soong, David T.; Straub, Timothy D.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

    2006-01-01

    Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital maps of the 100-year and 500-year flood plains and the 100-year floodway for each tributary and the main stem of Blackberry Creek were compiled.

  11. Large Scale Document Inversion using a Multi-threaded Computing System

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Sungbo; Chang, Dar-Jen; Park, Juw Won

    2018-01-01

    Current microprocessor architecture is moving towards multi-core/multi-threaded systems. This trend has led to a surge of interest in using multi-threaded computing devices, such as the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), for general purpose computing. We can utilize the GPU in computation as a massive parallel coprocessor because the GPU consists of multiple cores. The GPU is also an affordable, attractive, and user-programmable commodity. Nowadays a lot of information has been flooded into the digital domain around the world. Huge volume of data, such as digital libraries, social networking services, e-commerce product data, and reviews, etc., is produced or collected every moment with dramatic growth in size. Although the inverted index is a useful data structure that can be used for full text searches or document retrieval, a large number of documents will require a tremendous amount of time to create the index. The performance of document inversion can be improved by multi-thread or multi-core GPU. Our approach is to implement a linear-time, hash-based, single program multiple data (SPMD), document inversion algorithm on the NVIDIA GPU/CUDA programming platform utilizing the huge computational power of the GPU, to develop high performance solutions for document indexing. Our proposed parallel document inversion system shows 2-3 times faster performance than a sequential system on two different test datasets from PubMed abstract and e-commerce product reviews. CCS Concepts •Information systems➝Information retrieval • Computing methodologies➝Massively parallel and high-performance simulations. PMID:29861701

  12. Large Scale Document Inversion using a Multi-threaded Computing System.

    PubMed

    Jung, Sungbo; Chang, Dar-Jen; Park, Juw Won

    2017-06-01

    Current microprocessor architecture is moving towards multi-core/multi-threaded systems. This trend has led to a surge of interest in using multi-threaded computing devices, such as the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), for general purpose computing. We can utilize the GPU in computation as a massive parallel coprocessor because the GPU consists of multiple cores. The GPU is also an affordable, attractive, and user-programmable commodity. Nowadays a lot of information has been flooded into the digital domain around the world. Huge volume of data, such as digital libraries, social networking services, e-commerce product data, and reviews, etc., is produced or collected every moment with dramatic growth in size. Although the inverted index is a useful data structure that can be used for full text searches or document retrieval, a large number of documents will require a tremendous amount of time to create the index. The performance of document inversion can be improved by multi-thread or multi-core GPU. Our approach is to implement a linear-time, hash-based, single program multiple data (SPMD), document inversion algorithm on the NVIDIA GPU/CUDA programming platform utilizing the huge computational power of the GPU, to develop high performance solutions for document indexing. Our proposed parallel document inversion system shows 2-3 times faster performance than a sequential system on two different test datasets from PubMed abstract and e-commerce product reviews. •Information systems➝Information retrieval • Computing methodologies➝Massively parallel and high-performance simulations.

  13. Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings in China's mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miao, Qinghua; Yang, Dawen; Yang, Hanbo; Li, Zhe

    2016-10-01

    Flash flooding is one of the most common natural hazards in China, particularly in mountainous areas, and usually causes heavy damage and casualties. However, the forecasting of flash flooding in mountainous regions remains challenging because of the short response time and limited monitoring capacity. This paper aims to establish a strategy for flash flood warnings in mountainous ungauged catchments across humid, semi-humid and semi-arid regions of China. First, we implement a geomorphology-based hydrological model (GBHM) in four mountainous catchments with drainage areas that ranges from 493 to 1601 km2. The results show that the GBHM can simulate flash floods appropriately in these four study catchments. We propose a method to determine the rainfall threshold for flood warning by using frequency analysis and binary classification based on long-term GBHM simulations that are forced by historical rainfall data to create a practically easy and straightforward approach for flash flood forecasting in ungauged mountainous catchments with drainage areas from tens to hundreds of square kilometers. The results show that the rainfall threshold value decreases significantly with increasing antecedent soil moisture in humid regions, while this value decreases slightly with increasing soil moisture in semi-humid and semi-arid regions. We also find that accumulative rainfall over a certain time span (or rainfall over a long time span) is an appropriate threshold for flash flood warnings in humid regions because the runoff is dominated by excess saturation. However, the rainfall intensity (or rainfall over a short time span) is more suitable in semi-humid and semi-arid regions because excess infiltration dominates the runoff in these regions. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the rainfall threshold and find that the proposed method produces reasonably accurate flash flood warnings in the study catchments. An evaluation of the performance at uncalibrated interior points in the four gauged catchments provides results that are indicative of the expected performance at ungauged locations. We also find that insufficient historical data lengths (13 years with a 5-year flood return period in this study) may introduce uncertainty in the estimation of the flood/rainfall threshold because of the small number of flood events that are used in binary classification. A data sample that contains enough flood events (10 events suggested in the present study) that exceed the threshold value is necessary to obtain acceptable results from binary classification.

  14. Soil water improvements with the long-term use of a winter rye cover crop

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The Midwestern United States is projected to experience increasing rainfall variability. One approach to mitigate climate impacts is to utilize crop and soil management practices that enhance soil water storage, reducing the risks of flooding as well as drought-induced crop water stress. While some ...

  15. Multimetric Evaluation of Detention Basin Retrofit to Reduce Hydrologic Alteration of Urbanization and Restore Stream Stability

    EPA Science Inventory

    Abstract: Conventional stormwater detention basins are ubiquitous in the developed portions of U.S., particularly those areas developed since the 1980s. Because most detention basins were designed exclusively for flood control, they are not being utilized to their fullest potent...

  16. High-resolution marine flood modelling coupling overflow and overtopping processes: framing the hazard based on historical and statistical approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicolae Lerma, Alexandre; Bulteau, Thomas; Elineau, Sylvain; Paris, François; Durand, Paul; Anselme, Brice; Pedreros, Rodrigo

    2018-01-01

    A modelling chain was implemented in order to propose a realistic appraisal of the risk in coastal areas affected by overflowing as well as overtopping processes. Simulations are performed through a nested downscaling strategy from regional to local scale at high spatial resolution with explicit buildings, urban structures such as sea front walls and hydraulic structures liable to affect the propagation of water in urban areas. Validation of the model performance is based on hard and soft available data analysis and conversion of qualitative to quantitative information to reconstruct the area affected by flooding and the succession of events during two recent storms. Two joint probability approaches (joint exceedance contour and environmental contour) are used to define 100-year offshore conditions scenarios and to investigate the flood response to each scenario in terms of (1) maximum spatial extent of flooded areas, (2) volumes of water propagation inland and (3) water level in flooded areas. Scenarios of sea level rise are also considered in order to evaluate the potential hazard evolution. Our simulations show that for a maximising 100-year hazard scenario, for the municipality as a whole, 38 % of the affected zones are prone to overflow flooding and 62 % to flooding by propagation of overtopping water volume along the seafront. Results also reveal that for the two kinds of statistic scenarios a difference of about 5 % in the forcing conditions (water level, wave height and period) can produce significant differences in terms of flooding like +13.5 % of water volumes propagating inland or +11.3 % of affected surfaces. In some areas, flood response appears to be very sensitive to the chosen scenario with differences of 0.3 to 0.5 m in water level. The developed approach enables one to frame the 100-year hazard and to characterize spatially the robustness or the uncertainty over the results. Considering a 100-year scenario with mean sea level rise (0.6 m), hazard characteristics are dramatically changed with an evolution of the overtopping / overflowing process ratio and an increase of a factor 4.84 in volumes of water propagating inland and 3.47 in flooded surfaces.

  17. Prevalence of and Risk Factors for Skin Diseases Among Army Personnel and Flood Victims During the 2011 Floods in Thailand.

    PubMed

    Thongtaeparak, Wittaya; Pratchyapruit, Walai-Orn; Kotanivong, Settha; Sirithanakit, Nimit; Thunyaharn, Sudaluck; Rangsin, Ram; Chaikaew, Phachara; Wongyongsin, Pitee; Pinyoboon, Pongpak; Sutthiwan, Phatcharaphan; Theethansiri, Witchwaree; Janthayanont, Dusit; Mungthin, Mathirut

    2016-08-01

    This study aimed to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for skin problems among flood victims and army personnel during the 2011 floods in Thailand. To determine the prevalence of and risk factors for skin symptoms, standardized questionnaires were used to collect demographic data, current skin symptoms, history of water exposure, and sanitary behaviors. A certified dermatologist evaluated those who presented with skin problems and provided diagnoses. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess independent risk factors for skin symptoms. The most prevalent skin disease was irritant contact dermatitis. Flood victims showed a higher prevalence of skin symptoms compared with army personnel. Development of skin symptoms after exposure to floodwater was also observed earlier among flood victims. Having a history of skin diseases and delayed skin cleaning after exposure were also significant risk factors for the development of skin symptoms. This information might be used as guidelines for protecting military personnel and to educate the general public regarding flood disaster management. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:570-575).

  18. DAFNE: A Matlab toolbox for Bayesian multi-source remote sensing and ancillary data fusion, with application to flood mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Addabbo, Annarita; Refice, Alberto; Lovergine, Francesco P.; Pasquariello, Guido

    2018-03-01

    High-resolution, remotely sensed images of the Earth surface have been proven to be of help in producing detailed flood maps, thanks to their synoptic overview of the flooded area and frequent revisits. However, flood scenarios can be complex situations, requiring the integration of different data in order to provide accurate and robust flood information. Several processing approaches have been recently proposed to efficiently combine and integrate heterogeneous information sources. In this paper, we introduce DAFNE, a Matlab®-based, open source toolbox, conceived to produce flood maps from remotely sensed and other ancillary information, through a data fusion approach. DAFNE is based on Bayesian Networks, and is composed of several independent modules, each one performing a different task. Multi-temporal and multi-sensor data can be easily handled, with the possibility of following the evolution of an event through multi-temporal output flood maps. Each DAFNE module can be easily modified or upgraded to meet different user needs. The DAFNE suite is presented together with an example of its application.

  19. High resolution mapping of flood hazard for South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Sourima; Nzerem, Kechi; Zovi, Francesco; Li, Shuangcai; Mei, Yi; Assteerawatt, Anongnart; Hilberts, Arno; Tillmanns, Stephan; Mitas, Christos

    2015-04-01

    Floods are one of primary natural hazards that affect South Korea. During the past 15 years, catastrophic flood events which mainly have occurred during the rainy and typhoon seasons - especially under condition where soils are already saturated, have triggered substantial property damage with an average annual loss of around US1.2 billion (determined from WAter Management Information System's flood damage database for years 2002-2011) in South Korea. According to Seoul Metropolitan Government, over 16,000 households in the capital city Seoul were inundated during 2010 flood events. More than 10,000 households in Seoul were apparently flooded during one major flood event due to torrential rain in July 2011. Recently in August 2014, a serious flood event due to heavy rainfall hit the Busan region in the south east of South Korea. Addressing the growing needs, RMS has recently released country-wide high resolution combined flood return period maps for post-drainage local "pluvial" inundation and undefended large-scale "fluvial" inundation to aid the government and the insurance industry in the evaluation of comprehensive flood risk. RMS has developed a flood hazard model for South Korea to generate inundation depths and extents for a range of flood return periods. The model is initiated with 30 years of historical meteorological forcing data and calibrated to daily observations at over 100 river gauges across the country. Simulations of hydrologic processes are subsequently performed based on a 2000 year set of stochastic forcing. Floodplain inundation processes are modelled by numerically solving the shallow water equations using finite volume method on GPUs. Taking into account the existing stormwater drainage standards, economic exposure densities, etc., reasonable flood maps are created from inundation model output. Final hazard maps at one arcsec grid resolution can be the basis for both evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses in South Korea.

  20. A new automatic synthetic aperture radar-based flood mapping application hosted on the European Space Agency's Grid Processing of Demand Fast Access to Imagery environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matgen, Patrick; Giustarini, Laura; Hostache, Renaud

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces an automatic flood mapping application that is hosted on the Grid Processing on Demand (GPOD) Fast Access to Imagery (Faire) environment of the European Space Agency. The main objective of the online application is to deliver operationally flooded areas using both recent and historical acquisitions of SAR data. Having as a short-term target the flooding-related exploitation of data generated by the upcoming ESA SENTINEL-1 SAR mission, the flood mapping application consists of two building blocks: i) a set of query tools for selecting the "crisis image" and the optimal corresponding "reference image" from the G-POD archive and ii) an algorithm for extracting flooded areas via change detection using the previously selected "crisis image" and "reference image". Stakeholders in flood management and service providers are able to log onto the flood mapping application to get support for the retrieval, from the rolling archive, of the most appropriate reference image. Potential users will also be able to apply the implemented flood delineation algorithm. The latter combines histogram thresholding, region growing and change detection as an approach enabling the automatic, objective and reliable flood extent extraction from SAR images. Both algorithms are computationally efficient and operate with minimum data requirements. The case study of the high magnitude flooding event that occurred in July 2007 on the Severn River, UK, and that was observed with a moderateresolution SAR sensor as well as airborne photography highlights the performance of the proposed online application. The flood mapping application on G-POD can be used sporadically, i.e. whenever a major flood event occurs and there is a demand for SAR-based flood extent maps. In the long term, a potential extension of the application could consist in systematically extracting flooded areas from all SAR images acquired on a daily, weekly or monthly basis.

  1. Improving Flood Risk Management for California's Central Valley: How the State Developed a Toolbox for Large, System-wide Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pingel, N.; Liang, Y.; Bindra, A.

    2016-12-01

    More than 1 million Californians live and work in the floodplains of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Valley where flood risks are among the highest in the nation. In response to this threat to people, property and the environment, the Department of Water Resources (DWR) has been called to action to improve flood risk management. This has transpired through significant advances in development of flood information and tools, analysis, and planning. Senate Bill 5 directed DWR to prepare the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFPP) and update it every 5 years. A key component of this aggressive planning approach is answering the question: What is the current flood risk, and how would proposed improvements change flood risk throughout the system? Answering this question is a substantial challenge due to the size and complexity of the watershed and flood control system. The watershed is roughly 42,000 sq mi, and flows are controlled by numerous reservoirs, bypasses, and levees. To overcome this challenge, the State invested in development of a comprehensive analysis "tool box" through various DWR programs. Development of the tool box included: collection of hydro-meteorological, topographic, geotechnical, and economic data; development of rainfall-runoff, reservoir operation, hydraulic routing, and flood risk analysis models; and development of specialized applications and computing schemes to accelerate the analysis. With this toolbox, DWR is analyzing flood hazard, flood control system performance, exposure and vulnerability of people and property to flooding, consequence of flooding for specific events, and finally flood risk for a range of CVFPP alternatives. Based on the results, DWR will put forward a State Recommended Plan in the 2017 CVFPP. Further, the value of the analysis tool box extends beyond the CVFPP. It will serve as a foundation for other flood studies for years to come and has already been successfully applied for inundation mapping to support emergency response, reservoir operation analysis, and others.

  2. Geospatial Modelling Approach for Interlinking of Rivers: A Case Study of Vamsadhara and Nagavali River Systems in Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swathi Lakshmi, A.; Saran, S.; Srivastav, S. K.; Krishna Murthy, Y. V. N.

    2014-11-01

    India is prone to several natural disasters such as floods, droughts, cyclones, landslides and earthquakes on account of its geoclimatic conditions. But the most frequent and prominent disasters are floods and droughts. So to reduce the impact of floods and droughts in India, interlinking of rivers is one of the best solutions to transfer the surplus flood waters to deficit/drought prone areas. Geospatial modelling provides a holistic approach to generate probable interlinking routes of rivers based on existing geoinformatics tools and technologies. In the present study, SRTM DEM and AWiFS datasets coupled with land-use/land -cover, geomorphology, soil and interpolated rainfall surface maps have been used to identify the potential routes in geospatial domain for interlinking of Vamsadhara and Nagavali River Systems in Srikakulam district, Andhra Pradesh. The first order derivatives are derived from DEM and road, railway and drainage networks have been delineated using the satellite data. The inundation map has been prepared using AWiFS derived Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). The Drought prone areas were delineated on the satellite image as per the records declared by Revenue Department, Srikakulam. Majority Rule Based (MRB) aggregation technique is performed to optimize the resolution of obtained data in order to retain the spatial variability of the classes. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) based Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is implemented to obtain the prioritization of parameters like geomorphology, soil, DEM, slope, and land use/land-cover. A likelihood grid has been generated and all the thematic layers are overlaid to identify the potential grids for routing optimization. To give a better routing map, impedance map has been generated and several other constraints are considered. The implementation of canal construction needs extra cost in some areas. The developed routing map is published into OGC WMS services using open source GeoServer and proposed routing service can be visualized over Bhuvan portal (http://www.bhuvan.nrsc.gov.in/).Thus the obtained routing map of proposed canals focuses on transferring the surplus waters to drought prone areas to solve the problem of water scarcity, to properly utilize the flood waters for irrigational purposes and also help in recharging of groundwater. Similar methodology can be adopted in other interlinking of river systems.

  3. A probabilistic bridge safety evaluation against floods.

    PubMed

    Liao, Kuo-Wei; Muto, Yasunori; Chen, Wei-Lun; Wu, Bang-Ho

    2016-01-01

    To further capture the influences of uncertain factors on river bridge safety evaluation, a probabilistic approach is adopted. Because this is a systematic and nonlinear problem, MPP-based reliability analyses are not suitable. A sampling approach such as a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) or importance sampling is often adopted. To enhance the efficiency of the sampling approach, this study utilizes Bayesian least squares support vector machines to construct a response surface followed by an MCS, providing a more precise safety index. Although there are several factors impacting the flood-resistant reliability of a bridge, previous experiences and studies show that the reliability of the bridge itself plays a key role. Thus, the goal of this study is to analyze the system reliability of a selected bridge that includes five limit states. The random variables considered here include the water surface elevation, water velocity, local scour depth, soil property and wind load. Because the first three variables are deeply affected by river hydraulics, a probabilistic HEC-RAS-based simulation is performed to capture the uncertainties in those random variables. The accuracy and variation of our solutions are confirmed by a direct MCS to ensure the applicability of the proposed approach. The results of a numerical example indicate that the proposed approach can efficiently provide an accurate bridge safety evaluation and maintain satisfactory variation.

  4. On-Farm, Almond Orchard Flooding as a Viable Aquifer Recharge Alternative

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, C.; Nico, P. S.; Wu, Y.; Newman, G. A.; Conrad, M. E.; Dahlke, H. E.

    2017-12-01

    In 2014, California legislators passed the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), which requires groundwater sustainability agencies (areas) to identify/prioritize water basins, develop current and projected water use/needs, develop a groundwater management plan, develop fees, etc. One of the challenges for implementing SGMA is the lack of data that can support alternative groundwater recharge methods such as on-farm flooding. Prior to anthropogenic river control, river floodplains captured excess water during overbank flow in the rainy season in the CA central valley. Today levees and canals strategically route rainy season high flows to the delta/ocean when irrigation water is not needed. Utilizing farmland once again as infiltration basins for groundwater banking and aquifer recharge could be a viable answer to California's depleted central valley aquifers. Prior to 2017, U.C. Davis had partnered with the Almond Board of California (ABC) and local growers to study the efficacy of agricultural flooding and the effects on annual almond crops (. LBNL joined this team to help understand the conveyance of recharge water, using electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), into the subsurface (i.e. localized fast paths, depth of infiltration, etc.) during flooding events. The fate of the recharge water is what is significant to understanding the viability of on-farm flooding as an aquifer recharge option. In this study two orchards (in Delhi and Modesto, CA), each approximately 2 acres, were flooded during the almond tree dormant period (January), to recharge 2 acre/ft of water into the local aquifers. ERT was used to characterize (soil structure) and monitor water infiltration over a single flooding event to investigate the fate of applied water. Data were collected every hour prior to flooding (baseline), during, and after all flood water had infiltrated (about 5 days total). Our time-lapse ERT results show a heterogeneous soil structure that leads to non-uniform infiltration (fast paths) and water recharge well below the root zone to a depth below 15m (45ft) at both study sites. These results advocate the use of on-farm flooding as a viable option for groundwater recharge of local aquifers and its usefulness given existing infrastructure and potential to divert water as it heads to the delta/ocean.

  5. Investigation of Flood Risk Assessment in Inaccessible Regions using Multiple Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, J.; Lee, K. S.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding is extremely dangerous when a river overflows to inundate an urban area. From 1995 to 2016, North Korea (NK) experienced annual extensive damage to life and property almost each year due to a levee breach resulting from typhoons and heavy rainfall during the summer monsoon season. Recently, Hoeryeong City (2016) experienced heavy rainfall during typhoon Lionrock and the resulting flood killed and injured many people (68,900) and destroyed numerous buildings and settlements (11,600). The NK state media described it as the biggest national disaster since 1945. Thus, almost all annual repeat occurrences of floods in NK have had a serious impact, which makes it necessary to figure out the extent of floods in restoring the damaged environment. In addition, traditional hydrological model is impractical to delineate Flood Damaged Areas (FDAs) in NK due to the inaccessibility. Under such a situation, multiple optical Remote Sensing (RS) and radar RS along with a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analysis were utilized in this study (1) to develop modelling FDA delineation using multiple RS and GIS methods and (2) to conduct flood risk assessment in NK. Interpreting high-resolution web-based satellite imagery were also implemented to confirm the results of the study. From the study result, it was found that (1) on August 30th, 2016, an area of 117.2 km2 (8.6%) at Hoeryeong City was inundated. Most floods occurred in flat areas with a lower and middle stream order. (2) In the binary logistic regression model applied in this study, the distance from the nearest stream map and landform map variables are important factors to delineate FDAs because these two factors reflect heterogeneous mountainous NK topography. (3) Total annual flood risk of study area is estimated to be ₩454.13 million NKW ($504,417.24 USD, and ₩576.53 million SKW). The risk of the confluence of the Tumen River and Hoeryeong stream appears to be the highest. (4) High resolution satellite images can be used to confirm study results as ground truth data in this study, which shows the possibility of further application in environmental research of NK. Ultimately, this study provides recommendations to improve flood risk management in NK upon reunification.

  6. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Keysa, T.P.

    Characteristics of design, construction, performance, and educational opportunity are described for a small, simple passive solar community center in Christian Bend, Tennessee. This 2500-square-foot structure was designed in cooperation with this community of 75 families by TVA architects and was built entirely by volunteer labor. An educational process paralleled all phases of this building, begining with programming sessions, continuing through design, construction, occupation, and operation of the space. The direct gain building utilizes energy planning in both the interior and exterior. Earth berming and utilization of natural topography aid in the building's compatibility with both summer and winter climatic events.more » In addition to microclimatic design, interior space planning aids in naturally tempering spaces from extremes in climate. Extensive use of buffer spaces, an airlock entry, and placement of glazing areas (for direct gain and natural and induced ventilation) aid in the natural energy utilization and distribution in the interior spaces. Unique aspects include a double roof, which aids both in prevention of heat loss and in induced ventilation, and other operable garage door type roll down insulated shutters over the south facing aperture areas utilized both as night insulation and as a radiation barrier. This is the other major unique factor in this building. It has been designed both as an energy efficient community center for business as usual, and as an evacuation point and temporary shelter in th event of natural (flood) or man-induced (nuclear) disaster.« less

  7. Modeling and simulation of surfactant-polymer flooding using a new hybrid method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daripa, Prabir; Dutta, Sourav

    2017-04-01

    Chemical enhanced oil recovery by surfactant-polymer (SP) flooding has been studied in two space dimensions. A new global pressure for incompressible, immiscible, multicomponent two-phase porous media flow has been derived in the context of SP flooding. This has been used to formulate a system of flow equations that incorporates the effect of capillary pressure and also the effect of polymer and surfactant on viscosity, interfacial tension and relative permeabilities of the two phases. The coupled system of equations for pressure, water saturation, polymer concentration and surfactant concentration has been solved using a new hybrid method in which the elliptic global pressure equation is solved using a discontinuous finite element method and the transport equations for water saturation and concentrations of the components are solved by a Modified Method Of Characteristics (MMOC) in the multicomponent setting. Numerical simulations have been performed to validate the method, both qualitatively and quantitatively, and to evaluate the relative performance of the various flooding schemes for several different heterogeneous reservoirs.

  8. Nitrogen dynamics in flooded soil systems: an overview on concepts and performance of models.

    PubMed

    Nurulhuda, Khairudin; Gaydon, Donald S; Jing, Qi; Zakaria, Mohamad P; Struik, Paul C; Keesman, Karel J

    2018-02-01

    Extensive modelling studies on nitrogen (N) dynamics in flooded soil systems have been published. Consequently, many N dynamics models are available for users to select from. With the current research trend, inclined towards multidisciplinary research, and with substantial progress in understanding of N dynamics in flooded soil systems, the objective of this paper is to provide an overview of the modelling concepts and performance of 14 models developed to simulate N dynamics in flooded soil systems. This overview provides breadth of knowledge on the models, and, therefore, is valuable as a first step in the selection of an appropriate model for a specific application. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of The Science of Food and Agriculture published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

  9. Uncertainties and constraints on breaching and their implications for flood loss estimation.

    PubMed

    Muir Wood, Robert; Bateman, William

    2005-06-15

    Around the coasts of the southern North Sea, flood risk is mediated everywhere by the performance of natural and man-made flood defences. Under the conditions of extreme surge with tide water levels, the performance of the defences determines the extent of inland flooding. Sensitivity tests reveal the enormous increase in the volume of water that can pass through a defence once breaching is initiated, with a 1m reduction in sill elevation doubling the loss. Empirical observations of defence performance in major storm surges around the North Sea reveal some of the principal controls on breaching. For the same defence type, the maximum size and depth of a breach is a function of the integral of the hydraulic gradient across the defence, which is in turn determined by the elevation of the floodplain and the degree to which water can continue to flow inland away from the breach. The most extensive and lowest floodplains thereby "generate" the largest breaches. For surges that approach the crest height, the weaker the protection of the defence, the greater the number of breaches. Defence reinforcement reduces both the number and size of the breaches.

  10. Comparative Analysis of Normalised Difference Spectral Indices Derived from MODIS for Detecting Surface Water in Flooded Rice Cropping Systems

    PubMed Central

    Boschetti, Mirco; Nutini, Francesco; Manfron, Giacinto; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Nelson, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Identifying managed flooding in paddy fields is commonly used in remote sensing to detect rice. Such flooding, followed by rapid vegetation growth, is a reliable indicator to discriminate rice. Spectral indices (SIs) are often used to perform this task. However, little work has been done on determining which spectral combination in the form of Normalised Difference Spectral Indices (NDSIs) is most appropriate for surface water detection or which thresholds are most robust to separate water from other surfaces in operational contexts. To address this, we conducted analyses on satellite and field spectral data from an agronomic experiment as well as on real farming situations with different soil and plant conditions. Firstly, we review and select NDSIs proposed in the literature, including a new combination of visible and shortwave infrared bands. Secondly, we analyse spectroradiometric field data and satellite data to evaluate mixed pixel effects. Thirdly, we analyse MODIS data and Landsat data at four sites in Europe and Asia to assess NDSI performance in real-world conditions. Finally, we test the performance of the NDSIs on MODIS temporal profiles in the four sites. We also compared the NDSIs against a combined index previously used for agronomic flood detection. Analyses suggest that NDSIs using MODIS bands 4 and 7, 1 and 7, 4 and 6 or 1 and 6 perform best. A common threshold for each NDSI across all sites was more appropriate than locally adaptive thresholds. In general, NDSIs that use band 7 have a negligible increase in Commission Error over those that use band 6 but are more sensitive to water presence in mixed land cover conditions typical of moderate spatial resolution analyses. The best performing NDSI is comparable to the combined index but with less variability in performance across sites, suggesting a more succinct and robust flood detection method. PMID:24586381

  11. Impact of floods induced by extreme precipitation events on public health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mavroulis, Spyridon; Mavrouli, Maria; Lekkas, Efthymios; Tsakris, Athanassios

    2017-04-01

    Hydrometeorological disasters comprise the most reported type of natural disaster, and floods account for the majority of disasters in this category in both developed and developing countries. Flooding can lead to extensive morbidity and mortality and pose multiple risks to public health throughout the world. This study involved an extensive and systematic literature review of 124 research publications related to public health impact of 98 floods that occurred globally (Oceania 4, Africa 9, America 22, Europe 24, Asia 39) from 1942 to 2014. The inclusion criteria were literature type comprising journal articles and official reports, natural disaster type including floods induced after extreme precipitation events (accumulation of rainwater in poorly-drained environments, riverine and flash floods), population type including humans, and outcome measure characterized by infectious diseases (ID) incidence increase. The potential post-flood ID are classified into 13 groups including rodent-borne (reported in 38 of the total 98 events, 38.78%), water-borne (33, 33.67%), vector-borne (25, 25.51%), respiratory (19, 19.39%), fecal-oral (14, 14.29%), skin (9, 9.18%), blood-borne (4, 4.08%), eye (3, 3.06%), soil-related (3, 3.06%), ear (2, 2.04%), fungal (1, 1.02%) and wound-borne (1, 1.02%) ID. Based on available age and genre data, it is concluded that the most vulnerable population groups are predominantly young children (age ≤ 5 years) and male. The most fatal post-flood ID are leptospirosis and diarrhea followed by respiratory tract infections. The detected risk factors include (1) poor economic status and living in flood prone areas, (2) destruction of infrastructures, disruption of public utilities and interruption of basic public health services such as vector control programs, (3) direct physical exposure to sewage-polluted flood water, (4) lack of adequate potable water and water-supply from contaminated ponds and tube wells along with lack of distribution of water purification tablets, (5) aggravation of environmental conditions comprising rapid cooling of the environment and heightened humidity, (6) population displacement resulting in densely populated and overcrowded regions, (7) unfavorable living conditions in emergency shelters (8) improper and inadequate sanitation or no access to clean water and sanitation, (9) proliferation and abrupt increase of vector and rodent populations after flooding, (10) contamination of water, damp soil, mud or vegetation caused by rodent urine, dead animals and overflow of latrines. In conclusion, various ID emerge after the flood onset, and outbreaks may result due to the combined effect of several aggravating socio-economic factors and unfavorable environmental conditions. Because of the increased potential for outbreaks after flooding disasters, enhanced public health services and surveillance systems are necessary for the early detection of emerging diseases and outbreaks, and the targeted intervention for disease control.

  12. A flooding induced station blackout analysis for a pressurized water reactor using the RISMC toolkit

    DOE PAGES

    Mandelli, Diego; Prescott, Steven; Smith, Curtis; ...

    2015-05-17

    In this paper we evaluate the impact of a power uprate on a pressurized water reactor (PWR) for a tsunami-induced flooding test case. This analysis is performed using the RISMC toolkit: the RELAP-7 and RAVEN codes. RELAP-7 is the new generation of system analysis codes that is responsible for simulating the thermal-hydraulic dynamics of PWR and boiling water reactor systems. RAVEN has two capabilities: to act as a controller of the RELAP-7 simulation (e.g., component/system activation) and to perform statistical analyses. In our case, the simulation of the flooding is performed by using an advanced smooth particle hydrodynamics code calledmore » NEUTRINO. The obtained results allow the user to investigate and quantify the impact of timing and sequencing of events on system safety. The impact of power uprate is determined in terms of both core damage probability and safety margins.« less

  13. Estimation of Channel-Forming Discharge and Large-Event Geomorphic Response Using HEC-RAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamilton, P.; Strom, K.; Hosseiny, S. M. H.

    2015-12-01

    The goal of the present work was to consider the functionality and applicability of HEC-RAS sediment transport simulations in two situations. The first was as a mode for obtaining quick estimates of the effective discharge, one measure of channel-forming discharge, and the second was as a mode to quickly estimate sediment transport and the commensurate potential erosion and deposition during large flood events. Though there are many other sediment transport and morphodynamic models available, e.g., CCHE1D, Nays2DH, we were interested in using HEC-RAS since this is the model of choice for many regulatory bodies, e.g., FEMA, cities, and counties. This makes using the sediment transport capability of HEC-RAS a natural extension of models that already otherwise exist and are well calibrated. In first looking at the utility of these models, we wanted to estimate the effective discharge of streams. Effective discharge is one way of defining the channel-forming discharge for a stream and is therefore an important parameter in natural channel design and restoration efforts. By running this range of floods, one can easily obtain an estimate for recurrence interval most responsible for moving the majority of sediment over a long time period. Results were compared to data collected within our research group on the Brazos River (TX). Effective discharge is an important estimate, particularly in understanding the equilibrium channel condition. Nevertheless, large floods are contemporaneously catastrophic and understanding their potential effects is desirable. Finally, we performed some sensitivity analysis to better understand the underlying assumptions of the various sediment transport model options and how they might affect the outcome of the aforementioned computations.

  14. Multifunctional benefits of SuDS: techno-economic evaluation of decentralised solutions for urban water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mijic, Ana; Ossa-Moreno, Juan; Smith, Karl M.

    2016-04-01

    The increased frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change poses a significant threat to the integrity and function of critical urban infrastructure - rail, road, telecommunications, power and water supply/sewerage networks. A key threat within the United Kingdom (UK) is the increased risk of pluvial flooding; the conventional approach of channeling runoff to an outfall has proven to be unsustainable during severe storm events. Green infrastructure, in the form of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS), has been proposed as a means of minimising the risk of pluvial flooding. However, despite their technical performance, SuDS uptake in the UK has not reached its full capacity yet, mostly due to reasons that go beyong the engineering realm. This work investigated the strategic role of SuDS retrofit in managing environmental risks to urban infrastructure in London at a catchment level, through an economic appraisal of multifunctional benefits. It was found that by including the multifunctional benefits of SuDS, the economic feasibility of the project improves considerably. The case study has also shown a mechanism towards achieving wider-scale SuDS retrofit, whereby the investments are split amongst multiple stakeholder groups by highlighting the additional benefits each group derives. Groups include water utilities and their users, local government and critical infrastructure owners. Finally, limitations to the existing cost-benefit methdology in the UK were identified, and recommendations made regarding incentives and governmental regulations to enhance the uptake of SuDS in London. The proposed methodology provides compelling and robust, cost-benefit based evidence of SUDS' effectiveness within the flood risk management planning framework, but also with regard to the additional benefits of Nature Based Solutions in urban environments.

  15. Hydrological similarity approach and rainfall satellite utilization for mini hydro power dam basic design (case study on the ungauged catchment at West Borneo, Indonesia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prakoso, W. G.; Murtilaksono, K.; Tarigan, S. D.; Purwanto, Y. J.

    2018-05-01

    An approach on flow duration and flood design estimation on the ungauged catchment with no rainfall and discharge data availability was been being develop with hydrological modelling including rainfall run off model implemented with watershed characteristic dataset. Near real time Rainfall data from multi satellite platform e.g. TRMM can be utilized for regionalization approach on the ungauged catchment. Watershed hydrologically similarity analysis were conducted including all of the major watershed in Borneo which was predicted to be similar with the Nanga Raun Watershed. It was found that a satisfactory hydrological model calibration could be achieved using catchment weighted time series of TRMM daily rainfall data, performed on nearby catchment deemed to be sufficiently similar to Nanga Raun catchment in hydrological terms. Based on this calibration, rainfall runoff parameters were then transferred to a model. Relatively reliable flow duration curve and extreme discharge value estimation were produced with reasonable several limitation. Further approach may be performed in order to deal with the primary limitations inherent in the hydrological and statistical analysis, especially to give prolongation to the availability of the rainfall and climate data with some novel approach like downscaling of global climate model.

  16. Examining the relationship between infectious diseases and flooding in Europe: A systematic literature review and summary of possible public health interventions.

    PubMed

    Brown, Lisa; Murray, Virginia

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Many infectious diseases are sensitive to climatic changes; specifically, flooding. This systematic literature review aimed to strengthen the quality and completeness of evidence on infectious diseases following flooding, relevant to Europe. Methods A systematic literature review from 2004-2012 was performed. Focused searches of the following databases were conducted: Medline, Scopus, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Evidence Aid. Personal communications with key informants were also reviewed. Results Thirty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Evidence suggested that water-borne, rodent-borne, and vector-borne diseases have been associated with flooding in Europe, although at a lower incidence than developing countries. Conclusion Disease surveillance and early warning systems, coupled with effective prevention and response capabilities, can reduce current and future vulnerability to infectious diseases following flooding.

  17. Effects of salinity and flooding on seedlings of cabbage palm (Sabal palmetto).

    PubMed

    Perry, L; Williams, K

    1996-03-01

    Sabal palmetto (Walt.) Lodd. ex Schultes (cabbage palm) dominates the coastal limit of many forests in North Florida and Georgia, United States. Changes in saltwater flooding due to sea level rise have been credicted with pushing the coastal limit of cabbage palms inland, eliminating regeneration before causing death of mature trees. Localized freshwater discharge along the coast causes different forest stands to experience tidal flooding with waters that differ in salinity. To elucidate the effect of such variation on regeneration failure under tidal flooding, we examined relative effects of flooding and salinity on the performance of cabbage palm seedlings. We examined the relationship between seedling establishment and degree of tidal inundation in the field, compared the ability of seedlings to withstand tidal flooding at two coastal sites that differed in tidal water salinity, and investigated the physiological responses of cabbage palm seedlings to salinity and flooding in a factorial greenhouse experiment. Seedling survival was inversely correlated with depth and frequency of tidal flooding. Survival of seedlings at a coastal site flooded by waters low in salinity [c. 3 parts per thousand (ppt)] was greater than that at a site flooded by waters higher in salinity (up to 23 ppt). Greenhouse experiments revealed that leaves of seedlings in pots flushed twice daily with salt solutions of 0 ppt and 8 ppt exhibited little difference in midmorning net CO 2 assimilation rates; those flushed with solutions of 15 ppt and 22 ppt, in contrast, had such low rates that they could not be detected. Net CO 2 assimilation rates also declined with increasing salinity for seedlings in pots that were continuously inundated. Continuous root zone inundation appeared to ameliorate effects of salinity on photosynthesis, presumably due to increased salt concentrations and possibly water deficits in periodically flushed pots. Such problems associated with periodic flushing by salt water may play a role in the mortality of cabbage palm seedlings in the field. The salinity range in which plant performance plummeted in the greenhouse was consistent with the salinity difference found between our two coastal study sites, suggesting that variation in tidal water salinity along the coast plays an important role in the ability of cabbage palm seedlings to withstand tidal flooding.

  18. Flood resilience technology, systems and toolls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garvin, S.; Kelly, D.

    2012-04-01

    In recent years there has been a general acceptance that the risk from flooding is increasing, primarily due to increased urbanization and the impact of climate change (Zevenbergen et al, 2010). Flood resilience technology (FRe T) is a term used to describe a collection of technologies, materials and products that are used to protect and allow recovery of buildings, communities and infrastructure from flooding. River or coastal flooding is the focus of the legislation, regulation and guidance that is intended to control development and ensure the risk to new properties is low. However, the cost of building and maintaining primary flood defense systems for rivers and coasts is becoming prohibitive and as such future flood management needs to consider a range of measures to manage risk, in particular improving the resilience of buildings, infrastructure and communities. Surface water flooding is now known to cause as much damage as coastal and riverine flooding combined and is as likely to be experienced by both existing and new developments. Therefore FRe T solutions need to be adaptable and flexible. Previous research has shown that barriers exist to the acceptance and use of FRe T by a range of stakeholders. This includes the need to deploy household level items in time, the uncertainty over the performance of FRe T in actual flood situations or reluctance to adopt new or unknown solutions. Investment by public authorities in FRe Technology in recent years has typically increased in countries such as the UK. However, there has been to date little consideration of the system within which the technology has been employed and there is a lack of tools to assist decision makers. The SMARTeST project (an EU FP7 research project) is addressing the issues involved in FRe technology implementation. The findings of the research will be presented, including case studies where the integrated approaches of technology, systems and tools have been considered. SMARTeST seeks to create an environment for innovation in FRe technology, using new approaches that will reduce the risks involved in function, deployment, performance. The paper will describe how alliances of manufacturers, test houses and research organizations can bring about innovation. (Reference; Zevenbergen C, et al, C22 Book, Urban Flood Management, 2010)

  19. Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

  20. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to registration via third parties. The 'Future Flood Warning System' Our research shows that people want more choice on how they access and receive warnings. Many want a service tailored to their own risk, rather than that of their community. They also want more information about the forecast and the situation to that they can make decisions personal to their circumstances. Our future flood warning system will build upon the success of our existing service and will aim to: • provide our customers with a more flexible and personalised self-service approach which caters for the diverse range of user needs • alert people wherever they are, not just in properties • be flexible enough to respond to user feedback to make improvements and utilise new technology as it becomes available • provide real-time visualisation of system performance, to assist our flood response • capture greater levels of information from the recipients of our warnings • be efficient for operators of the system and utilise automation where relevant • take a risk based approach to resilience to provide the highest level of reliability when needed at a reduced cost

  1. Use of Flood Seasonality in Pooling-Group Formation and Quantile Estimation: An Application in Great Britain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Formetta, Giuseppe; Bell, Victoria; Stewart, Elizabeth

    2018-02-01

    Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most commonly applied methods for estimating extreme flood events at ungauged sites or locations with short measurement records. It is based on: (i) the definition of a homogeneous group (pooling-group) of catchments, and on (ii) the use of the pooling-group data to estimate flood quantiles. Although many methods to define a pooling-group (pooling schemes, PS) are based on catchment physiographic similarity measures, in the last decade methods based on flood seasonality similarity have been contemplated. In this paper, two seasonality-based PS are proposed and tested both in terms of the homogeneity of the pooling-groups they generate and in terms of the accuracy in estimating extreme flood events. The method has been applied in 420 catchments in Great Britain (considered as both gauged and ungauged) and compared against the current Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) PS. Results for gauged sites show that, compared to the current PS, the seasonality-based PS performs better both in terms of homogeneity of the pooling-group and in terms of the accuracy of flood quantile estimates. For ungauged locations, a national-scale hydrological model has been used for the first time to quantify flood seasonality. Results show that in 75% of the tested locations the seasonality-based PS provides an improvement in the accuracy of the flood quantile estimates. The remaining 25% were located in highly urbanized, groundwater-dependent catchments. The promising results support the aspiration that large-scale hydrological models complement traditional methods for estimating design floods.

  2. Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 1 - Reconstruction of Hurricane Harvey Flooding for Harris County, TX using a GPU-accelerated 2D flood model for post-flood hazard analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalyanapu, A. J.; Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey that made landfall in the southern Texas this August is one of the most destructive hurricanes during the 2017 hurricane season. During its active period, many areas in coastal Texas region received more than 40 inches of rain. This downpour caused significant flooding resulting in about 77 casualties, displacing more than 30,000 people, inundating hundreds of thousands homes and is currently estimated to have caused more than $70 billion in direct damage. One of the significantly affected areas is Harris County where the city of Houston, TX is located. Covering over two HUC-8 drainage basins ( 2702 mi2), this county experienced more than 80% of its annual average rainfall during this event. This study presents an effort to reconstruct flooding caused by extreme rainfall due to Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. This computationally intensive task was performed at a 30-m spatial resolution using a rapid flood model called Flood2D-GPU, a graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated model, on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Titan Supercomputer. For this task, the hourly rainfall estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimate were fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to estimate flow hydrographs at 69 locations for Flood2D-GPU simulation. Preliminary results of the simulation including flood inundation extents, maps of flood depths and inundation duration will be presented. Future efforts will focus on calibrating and validating the simulation results and assessing the flood damage for better understanding the impacts made by Hurricane Harvey.

  3. Flood Identification from Satellite Images Using Artificial Neural Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, L.; Kao, I.; Shih, K.

    2011-12-01

    Typhoons and storms hit Taiwan several times every year and they cause serious flood disasters. Because the rivers are short and steep, and their flows are relatively fast with floods lasting only few hours and usually less than one day. Flood identification can provide the flood disaster and extent information to disaster assistance and recovery centers. Due to the factors of the weather, it is not suitable for aircraft or traditional multispectral satellite; hence, the most appropriate way for investigating flooding extent is to use Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite. In this study, back-propagation neural network (BPNN) model and multivariate linear regression (MLR) model are built to identify the flooding extent from SAR satellite images. The input variables of the BPNN model are Radar Cross Section (RCS) value and mean of the pixel, standard deviation, minimum and maximum of RCS values among its adjacent 3×3 pixels. The MLR model uses two images of the non-flooding and flooding periods, and The inputs are the difference between the RCS values of two images and the variances among its adjacent 3×3 pixels. The results show that the BPNN model can perform much better than the MLR model. The correct percentages are more than 80% and 73% in training and testing data, respectively. Many misidentified areas are very fragmented and unrelated. In order to reinforce the correct percentage, morphological image analysis is used to modify the outputs of these identification models. Through morphological operations, most of the small, fragmented and misidentified areas can be correctly assigned to flooding or non-flooding areas. The final results show that the flood identification of satellite images has been improved a lot and the correct percentages increases up to more than 90%.

  4. Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 2: Integration of Heterogeneous Earth Observation Data for Comparative Analysis with High-Resolution Inundation Boundaries Reconstructed from Flood2D-GPU Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, C.; Sava, E.; Cervone, G.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey has been noted as the wettest cyclone on record for the US as well as the most destructive (so far) for the 2017 hurricane season. An entire year worth of rainfall occurred over the course of a few days. The city of Houston was greatly impacted as the storm lingered over the city for five days, causing a record-breaking 50+ inches of rain as well as severe damage from flooding. Flood model simulations were performed to reconstruct the event in order to better understand, assess, and predict flooding dynamics for the future. Additionally, number of remote sensing platforms, and on ground instruments that provide near real-time data have also been used for flood identification, monitoring, and damage assessment. Although both flood models and remote sensing techniques are able to identify inundated areas, rapid and accurate flood prediction at a high spatio-temporal resolution remains a challenge. Thus a methodological approach which fuses the two techniques can help to better validate what is being modeled and observed. Recent advancements in data fusion techniques of remote sensing with near real time heterogeneous datasets have allowed emergency responders to more efficiently extract increasingly precise and relevant knowledge from the available information. In this work the use of multiple sources of contributed data, coupled with remotely sensed and open source geospatial datasets is demonstrated to generate an understanding of potential damage assessment for the floods after Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. The feasibility of integrating multiple sources at different temporal and spatial resolutions into hydrodynamic models for flood inundation simulations is assessed. Furthermore the contributed datasets are compared against a reconstructed flood extent generated from the Flood2D-GPU model.

  5. Accounting for Rainfall Spatial Variability in Prediction of Flash Floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saharia, M.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Gourley, J. J.; Hong, Y.; Vergara, H. J.

    2016-12-01

    Flash floods are a particularly damaging natural hazard worldwide in terms of both fatalities and property damage. In the United States, the lack of a comprehensive database that catalogues information related to flash flood timing, location, causative rainfall, and basin geomorphology has hindered broad characterization studies. First a representative and long archive of more than 20,000 flooding events during 2002-2011 is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of flash floods. We also derive large number of spatially distributed geomorphological and climatological parameters such as basin area, mean annual precipitation, basin slope etc. to identify static basin characteristics that influence flood response. For the same period, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has produced a decadal archive of Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar-only precipitation rates at 1-km spatial resolution with 5-min temporal resolution. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to analyze the impact of event-level precipitation variability on flooding using a big data approach. To analyze the impact of sub-basin scale rainfall spatial variability on flooding, certain indices such as the first and second scaled moment of rainfall, horizontal gap, vertical gap etc. are computed from the MRMS dataset. Finally, flooding characteristics such as rise time, lag time, and peak discharge are linked to derived geomorphologic, climatologic, and rainfall indices to identify basin characteristics that drive flash floods. Next the model is used to predict flash flooding characteristics all over the continental U.S., specifically over regions poorly covered by hydrological observations. So far studies involving rainfall variability indices have only been performed on a case study basis, and a large scale approach is expected to provide a deeper insight into how sub-basin scale precipitation variability affects flooding. Finally, these findings are validated using the National Weather Service storm reports and a historical flood fatalities database. This analysis framework will serve as a baseline for evaluating distributed hydrologic model simulations such as the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs Project (FLASH) (http://flash.ou.edu).

  6. Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

    2015-08-01

    Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

  7. Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  8. Flood Frequency Curves - Use of information on the likelihood of extreme floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faber, B.

    2011-12-01

    Investment in the infrastructure that reduces flood risk for flood-prone communities must incorporate information on the magnitude and frequency of flooding in that area. Traditionally, that information has been a probability distribution of annual maximum streamflows developed from the historical gaged record at a stream site. Practice in the United States fits a Log-Pearson type3 distribution to the annual maximum flows of an unimpaired streamflow record, using the method of moments to estimate distribution parameters. The procedure makes the assumptions that annual peak streamflow events are (1) independent, (2) identically distributed, and (3) form a representative sample of the overall probability distribution. Each of these assumptions can be challenged. We rarely have enough data to form a representative sample, and therefore must compute and display the uncertainty in the estimated flood distribution. But, is there a wet/dry cycle that makes precipitation less than independent between successive years? Are the peak flows caused by different types of events from different statistical populations? How does the watershed or climate changing over time (non-stationarity) affect the probability distribution floods? Potential approaches to avoid these assumptions vary from estimating trend and shift and removing them from early data (and so forming a homogeneous data set), to methods that estimate statistical parameters that vary with time. A further issue in estimating a probability distribution of flood magnitude (the flood frequency curve) is whether a purely statistical approach can accurately capture the range and frequency of floods that are of interest. A meteorologically-based analysis produces "probable maximum precipitation" (PMP) and subsequently a "probable maximum flood" (PMF) that attempts to describe an upper bound on flood magnitude in a particular watershed. This analysis can help constrain the upper tail of the probability distribution, well beyond the range of gaged data or even historical or paleo-flood data, which can be very important in risk analyses performed for flood risk management and dam and levee safety studies.

  9. Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

    2011-12-01

    The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from the flood hazard model is used to drive a flood loss model that is coupled to a financial model.

  10. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been developed and widely applied, but there is still room for improvements. Future research in the context of Bayesian flood forecasting should be on assimilation of various sources of newly available information and improvement of predictive performance assessment methods.

  11. Flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for human life

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, T.; Chang, T.; Lai, J.; Hsieh, M.; Tan, Y.; Lin, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Flood risk assessment is an important issue for the countries suffering tropical cyclones and monsoon. Taiwan is located in the hot zone of typhoon tracks in the Western Pacific. There are three to five typhoons landing Taiwan every year. Typhoons and heavy rainfalls often cause inundation disaster rising with the increase of population and the development of social economy. The purpose of this study is to carry out the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life. Based on the concept that flood risk is composed by flood hazard and vulnerability, a inundation simulation is performed to evaluate the factors of flood hazard for human life according to base flood (100-year return period). The flood depth, velocity and rising ratio are the three factors of flood hazards. Furthermore, the factors of flood vulnerability are identified in terms of human life that are classified into two main factors, residents and environment. The sub factors related to residents are the density of population and the density of vulnerable people including elders, youngers and disabled persons. The sub factors related to environment include the the number of building floors, the locations of buildings, the and distance to rescue center. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to determine the weights of these factors. The risk matrix is applied to show the risk from low to high based on the evaluation of flood hazards and vulnerabilities. The Tseng-Wen River watershed is selected as the case study because a serious flood was induced by Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2.361mm in 48 hours in the last 50 years. The results of assessing the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life could improve the emergency operation for flood disaster to prepare enough relief goods and materials during typhoon landing.

  12. Flood Frequency Analysis using different flood descriptors - the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karamuz, Emilia; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Romanowicz, Renata

    2014-05-01

    Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is customarily performed using annual maximum flows. However, there is a number of different flood descriptors that could be used. Among them are water levels, peaks over the threshold, flood-wave duration, flood volume, etc. In this study we compare different approaches to FFA for their suitability for flood risk assessment. The main goal is to obtain the FFA curve with the smallest possible uncertainty limits, in particular for the distribution tail. The extrapolation of FFA curves is crucial in future flood risk assessment in a changing climate. We compare the FFA curves together with their uncertainty limits obtained using flows, water levels, flood inundation area and volumes for the Warsaw reach of the river Vistula. Moreover, we derive the FFA curves obtained using simulated flows. The results are used to derive the error distribution for the maximum simulated and observed values under different modelling techniques and assess its influence on flood risk predictions for ungauged catchments. MIKE11, HEC-RAS and transfer function model are applied in average and extreme conditions to model flow propagation in the Warsaw Vistula reach. The additional questions we want to answer are what is the range of application of different modelling tools under various flow conditions and how can the uncertainty of flood risk assessment be decreased. This work was partly supported by the projects "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula reach from Zawichost to Warsaw)" and "Modern statistical models for analysis of flood frequency and features of flood waves", carried by the Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences on the order of the National Science Centre (contracts Nos. 2011/01/B/ST10/06866 and 2012/05/B/ST10/00482, respectively). The water level and flow data were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  13. Forest cover, socioeconomics, and reported flood frequency in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, Susana; Ghimire, Ramesh

    2012-08-01

    In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the number of large floods reported since 1990. Using the same sample of countries as Bradshaw et al. (2007), and, like them, omitting socioeconomic characteristics from the analysis, we found that a reduction in natural forest cover is associated with an increase in the reported count of large floods. This result does not hold in any of three new analyses we perform. First, we expand the sample to include all the developing countries and all countries for which data were available but were omitted in their study. Second, and more importantly, since forest management is just one possible channel through which humans can influence reported flood frequency, we account for other important human-flood interactions. People are typically responsible for deforestation, but they are also responsible for other land use changes (e.g., urbanization), for floodplain and flood emergency management, and for reporting the floods. Thus, in our analysis we account for population, urban population growth, income, and corruption. Third, we exploit the panel nature of the data to control for unobserved country and time heterogeneity. We conclude that not only is the link between forest cover and reported flood frequency at the country level not robust, it also seems to be driven by sample selection and omitted variable bias. The human impact on the reported frequency of large floods at the country level is not through deforestation.

  14. Geohazard assessment through the analysis of historical alluvial events in Southern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo

    2015-04-01

    The risk associated with extreme water events such as flash floods, results from a combination of overflows and landslides hazards. A multi-hazard approach have been utilized to analyze the 1773 flood that occurred in conjunction with heavy rainfall, causing major damage in terms of lost lives and economic cost over an area of 200 km2, including both the coastal strip between Salerno and Maiori and the Apennine hinterland, Campania region - Southern Italy. This area has been affected by a total of 40 flood events over the last five centuries, 26 of them occurred between 1900 and 2000. Streamflow events have produced severe impacts on Cava de' Tirreni (SA) and its territory and in particular four catastrophic floods in 1581, 1773, 1899 and 1954, caused a pervasive pattern of destruction. In the study area, rainstorm events typically occur in small and medium-sized fluvial system, characterized by small catchment areas and high-elevation drainage basins, causing the detachment of large amount of volcaniclastic and siliciclastic covers from the carbonate bedrock. The mobilization of these deposits (slope debris) mixed with rising floodwaters along the water paths can produce fast-moving streamflows of large proportion with significant hazardous implications (Violante et al., 2009). In this context the study of 1773 historical flood allows the detection and the definition of those areas where catastrophic events repeatedly took place over the time. Moreover, it improves the understanding of the phenomena themselves, including some key elements in the management of risk mitigation, such as the restoration of the damage suffered by the buildings and/or the environmental effects caused by the floods.

  15. Street Level Hydrology: An Urban Application of the WRF-Hydro Framework in Denver, Colorado

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Read, L.; Hogue, T. S.; Salas, F. R.; Gochis, D.

    2015-12-01

    Urban flood modeling at the watershed scale carries unique challenges in routing complexity, data resolution, social and political issues, and land surface - infrastructure interactions. The ability to accurately trace and predict the flow of water through the urban landscape enables better emergency response management, floodplain mapping, and data for future urban infrastructure planning and development. These services are of growing importance as urban population is expected to continue increasing by 1.84% per year for the next 25 years, increasing the vulnerability of urban regions to damages and loss of life from floods. Although a range of watershed-scale models have been applied in specific urban areas to examine these issues, there is a trend towards national scale hydrologic modeling enabled by supercomputing resources to understand larger system-wide hydrologic impacts and feedbacks. As such it is important to address how urban landscapes can be represented in large scale modeling processes. The current project investigates how coupling terrain and infrastructure routing can improve flow prediction and flooding events over the urban landscape. We utilize the WRF-Hydro modeling framework and a high-resolution terrain routing grid with the goal of compiling standard data needs necessary for fine scale urban modeling and dynamic flood forecasting in the urban setting. The city of Denver is selected as a case study, as it has experienced several large flooding events in the last five years and has an urban annual population growth rate of 1.5%, one of the highest in the U.S. Our work highlights the hydro-informatic challenges associated with linking channel networks and drainage infrastructure in an urban area using the WRF-Hydro modeling framework and high resolution urban models for short-term flood prediction.

  16. Simulating groundwater-induced sewer flooding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mijic, A.; Mansour, M.; Stanic, M.; Jackson, C. R.

    2016-12-01

    During the last decade, Chalk catchments of southern England experienced severe groundwater flooding. High groundwater levels resulted in the groundwater ingress into the sewer network that led to restricted toilet use and the overflow of diluted, but untreated sewage to road surfaces, rivers and water courses. In response to these events the water and sewerage company Thames Water Utilities Ltd (TWUL) had to allocate significant funds to mitigate the impacts. It was estimated that approximately £19m was spent responding to the extreme wet weather of 2013-14, along with the use of a fleet of over 100 tankers. However, the magnitude of the event was so large that these efforts could not stop the discharge of sewage to the environment. This work presents the analysis of the risk of groundwater-induced sewer flooding within the Chalk catchment of the River Lambourn, Berkshire. A spatially distributed groundwater model was used to assess historic groundwater flood risk and the potential impacts of changes in future climate. We then linked this model to an urban groundwater model to enable us to simulate groundwater-sewer interaction in detail. The modelling setup was used to identify relationships between infiltration into sewers and groundwater levels at specific points on TWUL's sewer network, and to estimate historic and future groundwater flood risk, and how this varies across the catchment. The study showed the significance of understanding the impact of groundwater on the urban water systems, and producing information that can inform a water company's response to groundwater flood risk, their decision making process and their asset management planning. However, the knowledge gained through integrated modelling of groundwater-sewer interactions has highlighted limitations of existing approaches for the simulation of these coupled systems. We conclude this work with number of recommendations about how to improve such hydrological/sewer analysis.

  17. Salt intrusion in tidal wetlands: European willow species tolerate oligohaline conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markus-Michalczyk, Heike; Hanelt, Dieter; Ludewig, Kristin; Müller, David; Schröter, Brigitte; Jensen, Kai

    2014-01-01

    Tidal wetlands experience salt intrusion due to the effects of climate change. This study clarifies that the European flood plain willows species Salix alba and Salix viminalis tolerate oligohaline conditions. Salix alba L. and Salix viminalis L. are distributed on flood plains up to transitional waters of the oligohaline to the mesohaline estuarine stretch in temperate climates. They experience spatial and temporal variations in flooding and salinity. In the past, willows dominated the vegetation above the mean high water line, attenuated waves and contributed to sedimentation. In recent centuries, human utilization reduced willow stands. Today, the Elbe estuary - a model system for an estuary in temperate zones - exhibits increasing flooding and salinity due to man-induced effects and climatic changes. Willows were described as having no salinity tolerance. In contrast, our soil water salinity measurements at willows in tidal wetlands prove that mature Salix individuals tolerate oligohaline conditions. To assess immature plant salinity tolerance, we conducted a hydroponic greenhouse experiment. Vegetative propagules originating from a freshwater and an oligohaline site were treated in four salinities. Related to growth rates and biomass production, we found interspecific similarities and a salinity tolerance up to salinity 2. Vitality and chlorophyll fluorescence indicated an acclimation of Salix viminalis to oligohaline conditions. We conclude, that the survival of S. alba and S. viminalis and the restoration of willow stands in estuarine flood plains - with regard to wave attenuation and sedimentation - might be possible, despite increasing salinity in times of climate change.

  18. General characteristics of causes of urban flood damage and flood forecasting/warning system in Seoul, Korea Young-Il Moon1, 2, Jong-Suk Kim1, 2 1 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Seoul, Seoul 130-743, South Korea 2 Urban Flood Research Inst

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moon, Young-Il; Kim, Jong-Suk

    2015-04-01

    Due to rapid urbanization and climate change, the frequency of concentrated heavy rainfall has increased, causing urban floods that result in casualties and property damage. As a consequence of natural disasters that occur annually, the cost of damage in Korea is estimated to be over two billion US dollars per year. As interest in natural disasters increase, demands for a safe national territory and efficient emergency plans are on the rise. In addition to this, as a part of the measures to cope with the increase of inland flood damage, it is necessary to build a systematic city flood prevention system that uses technology to quantify flood risk as well as flood forecast based on both rivers and inland water bodies. Despite the investment and efforts to prevent landside flood damage, research and studies of landside-river combined hydro-system is at its initial stage in Korea. Therefore, the purpose of this research introduces the causes of flood damage in Seoul and shows a flood forecasting and warning system in urban streams of Seoul. This urban flood forecasting and warning system conducts prediction on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and performs prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded area and also supports synthetic decision-making for prevention through real-time monitoring. Although we cannot prevent damage from typhoons or localized heavy rain, we can minimize that damage with accurate and timely forecast and a prevention system. To this end, we developed a flood forecasting and warning system, so in case of an emergency there is enough time for evacuation and disaster control. Keywords: urban flooding, flood risk, inland-river system, Korea Acknowledgments This research was supported by a grant (13AWMP-B066744-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program (AWMP) funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  19. Al/Pb lightweight grids prepared by molten salt electroless plating for application in lead-acid batteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Bo; Jiang, Liangxing; Hao, Ketao; Liu, Fangyang; Yu, Xiaoying; Xue, Haitao; Li, Jie; Liu, Yexiang

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, a lightweight Pb plated Al (Al/Pb) grid was prepared by molten salt electroless plating. The SEM and bonding strength test show that the lead coating is deposited with a smooth surface and firm combination. CV test shows that the electrochemical properties of Al/Pb electrodes are stable. 2.0 V single-cell flooded lead-acid batteries with Al/Pb grids as negative collectors are assembled and the performances including 20 h capacity, rate capacity, cycle life, internal resistance are investigated. The results show that the cycle life of Al/Pb-grid cells is about 475 cycles and can meet the requirement of lead-acid batteries. Al/Pb grids are conducive to the refinement of PbSO4 grain, and thereby reduce the internal resistance of battery and advance the utilization of active mass. Moreover, weight of Al/Pb grid is only 55.4% of the conventional-grid. In this way, mass specific capacity of Al/Pb-grid negatives is 17.8% higher and the utilization of active mass is 6.5% higher than conventional-grid negatives.

  20. In search of robust flood risk management alternatives for the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klijn, F.; Knoop, J. M.; Ligtvoet, W.; Mens, M. J. P.

    2012-05-01

    The Netherlands' policy for flood risk management is being revised in view of a sustainable development against a background of climate change, sea level rise and increasing socio-economic vulnerability to floods. This calls for a thorough policy analysis, which can only be adequate when there is agreement about the "framing" of the problem and about the strategic alternatives that should be taken into account. In support of this framing, we performed an exploratory policy analysis, applying future climate and socio-economic scenarios to account for the autonomous development of flood risks, and defined a number of different strategic alternatives for flood risk management at the national level. These alternatives, ranging from flood protection by brute force to reduction of the vulnerability by spatial planning only, were compared with continuation of the current policy on a number of criteria, comprising costs, the reduction of fatality risk and economic risk, and their robustness in relation to uncertainties. We found that a change of policy away from conventional embankments towards gaining control over the flooding process by making the embankments unbreachable is attractive. By thus influencing exposure to flooding, the fatality risk can be effectively reduced at even lower net societal costs than by continuation of the present policy or by raising the protection standards where cost-effective.

  1. A back-fitting algorithm to improve real-time flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaojing; Liu, Pan; Cheng, Lei; Liu, Zhangjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-07-01

    Real-time flood forecasting is important for decision-making with regards to flood control and disaster reduction. The conventional approach involves a postprocessor calibration strategy that first calibrates the hydrological model and then estimates errors. This procedure can simulate streamflow consistent with observations, but obtained parameters are not optimal. Joint calibration strategies address this issue by refining hydrological model parameters jointly with the autoregressive (AR) model. In this study, five alternative schemes are used to forecast floods. Scheme I uses only the hydrological model, while scheme II includes an AR model for error correction. In scheme III, differencing is used to remove non-stationarity in the error series. A joint inference strategy employed in scheme IV calibrates the hydrological and AR models simultaneously. The back-fitting algorithm, a basic approach for training an additive model, is adopted in scheme V to alternately recalibrate hydrological and AR model parameters. The performance of the five schemes is compared with a case study of 15 recorded flood events from China's Baiyunshan reservoir basin. Our results show that (1) schemes IV and V outperform scheme III during the calibration and validation periods and (2) scheme V is inferior to scheme IV in the calibration period, but provides better results in the validation period. Joint calibration strategies can therefore improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. Additionally, the back-fitting recalibration strategy produces weaker overcorrection and a more robust performance compared with the joint inference strategy.

  2. USING PHASE DIAGRAMS TO PREDICT THE PERFORMANCE OF COSOLVENT FLOODS FOR NAPL REMEDIATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cosolvent flooding using water miscible solvents such as alcohols has been proposed as an in-situ NAPL remediation technique. This process is conceptually similar to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using alcohols and some surfactant formulations. As a result of interest in the EOR ...

  3. Hybrid artificial intelligence approach based on neural fuzzy inference model and metaheuristic optimization for flood susceptibilitgy modeling in a high-frequency tropical cyclone area using GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tien Bui, Dieu; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Nampak, Haleh; Bui, Quang-Thanh; Tran, Quynh-An; Nguyen, Quoc-Phi

    2016-09-01

    This paper proposes a new artificial intelligence approach based on neural fuzzy inference system and metaheuristic optimization for flood susceptibility modeling, namely MONF. In the new approach, the neural fuzzy inference system was used to create an initial flood susceptibility model and then the model was optimized using two metaheuristic algorithms, Evolutionary Genetic and Particle Swarm Optimization. A high-frequency tropical cyclone area of the Tuong Duong district in Central Vietnam was used as a case study. First, a GIS database for the study area was constructed. The database that includes 76 historical flood inundated areas and ten flood influencing factors was used to develop and validate the proposed model. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to assess the model performance and its prediction capability. Experimental results showed that the proposed model has high performance on both the training (RMSE = 0.306, MAE = 0.094, AUC = 0.962) and validation dataset (RMSE = 0.362, MAE = 0.130, AUC = 0.911). The usability of the proposed model was evaluated by comparing with those obtained from state-of-the art benchmark soft computing techniques such as J48 Decision Tree, Random Forest, Multi-layer Perceptron Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System. The results show that the proposed MONF model outperforms the above benchmark models; we conclude that the MONF model is a new alternative tool that should be used in flood susceptibility mapping. The result in this study is useful for planners and decision makers for sustainable management of flood-prone areas.

  4. Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

    2017-12-01

    Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

  5. Using EPA Tools and Data Services to Inform Changes to Design Storm Definitions for Wastewater Utilities based on Climate Model Projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tryby, M.; Fries, J. S.; Baranowski, C.

    2014-12-01

    Extreme precipitation events can cause significant impacts to drinking water and wastewater utilities, including facility damage, water quality impacts, service interruptions and potential risks to human health and the environment due to localized flooding and combined sewer overflows (CSOs). These impacts will become more pronounced with the projected increases in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events due to climate change. To model the impacts of extreme precipitation events, wastewater utilities often develop Intensity, Duration, and Frequency (IDF) rainfall curves and "design storms" for use in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Wastewater utilities use SWMM for planning, analysis, and facility design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban and non-urban areas. SWMM tracks (1) the quantity and quality of runoff made within each sub-catchment; and (2) the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period made up of multiple time steps. In its current format, EPA SWMM does not consider climate change projection data. Climate change may affect the relationship between intensity, duration, and frequency described by past rainfall events. Therefore, EPA is integrating climate projection data available in the Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT) into SWMM. CREAT is a climate risk assessment tool for utilities that provides downscaled climate change projection data for changes in the amount of rainfall in a 24-hour period for various extreme precipitation events (e.g., from 5-year to 100-year storm events). Incorporating climate change projections into SWMM will provide wastewater utilities with more comprehensive data they can use in planning for future storm events, thereby reducing the impacts to the utility and customers served from flooding and stormwater issues.

  6. Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apel, Heiko; Martínez Trepat, Oriol; Nghia Hung, Nguyen; Thi Chinh, Do; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen

    2016-04-01

    Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial-pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

  7. Clarifying muddy water: probing the linkages to municipal water quality.

    Treesearch

    Sally Duncan

    2003-01-01

    In the Pacific Northwest, several recent and dramatic "muddy waters" events have created major problems for water utilities. Resulting from floods and measures to retrofit dams to reduce impacts on temperature, these events also have focused public and scientific attention on interactions among dams, forest-land use, and municipal water supplies. Far from...

  8. 78 FR 28875 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-16

    ... Honorable Jim Desmond, Public Works March 7, 2013 060296 1286). (12-09-1029P). Mayor, City of San Department.... Larimer (FEMA Docket No.: B- City of Fort Collins The Honorable Karen Stormwater Utilities February 28, 2013 080102 1286). (12-08-0677P). Weitkunat, Mayor, City of Department, 700 Fort Collins, P.O. Box Wood...

  9. DEVELOPING A SMALL BUSINESS IN RESPONSE TO A STORMWATER UTILITY FOR THE NEW JERSEY MEADOWLANDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The main causes of flooding have been identified to be clogged catch basins and tidal gates, the lot being poorly graded and mostly impervious, lack of pumping systems and tidal issues. The unmaintained existing infrastructure such as broken or non-functional tidal gates, drai...

  10. An Exploration of the Importance of Flood Heterogeneity for Regionalization in Arizona using the Expected Moments Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zamora-Reyes, D.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Paretti, N. V.

    2012-12-01

    Bulletin 17B (B17B) has prevailed for 30 years as the standard manual for determining flood frequency in the United States. Recently proposed updates to B17B include revising the issue of flood heterogeneity, and improving flood estimates by using the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) which can better address low outliers and accommodate information on historical peaks. Incorporating information on mixed populations, such as flood-causing mechanisms, into flood estimates for regions that have noticeable flood heterogeneity can be statistically challenging when systematic flood records are short. The problem magnifies when the population sample size is reduced by decomposing the record, especially if multiple flood mechanisms are involved. In B17B, the guidelines for dealing with mixed populations focus primarily on how to rule out any need to perform a mixed-population analysis. However, in some regions mixed flood populations are critically important determinants of regional flood frequency variations and should be explored from this perspective. Arizona is an area with a heterogeneous mixture of flood processes due to: warm season convective thunderstorms, cool season synoptic-scale storms, and tropical cyclone-enhanced convective activity occurring in the late summer or early fall. USGS station data throughout Arizona was compiled into a database and each flood peak (annual and partial duration series) was classified according to its meteorological cause. Using these data, we have explored the role of flood heterogeneity in Arizona flood estimates through composite flood frequency analysis based on mixed flood populations using EMA. First, for selected stations, the three flood-causing populations were separated out from the systematic annual flood series record and analyzed individually. Second, to create composite probability curves, the individual curves for each of the three populations were generated and combined using Crippen's (1978) composite probability equations for sites that have two or more independent flood populations. Finally, the individual probability curves generated for each of the three flood-causing populations were compared with both the site's composite probability curve and the standard B17B curve to explore the influence of heterogeneity using the 100-year and 200-year flood estimates as a basis of comparison. Results showed that sites located in southern Arizona and along the abrupt elevation transition zone of the Mogollon Rim exhibit a better fit to the systematic data using their composite probability curves than the curves derived from standard B17B analysis. Synoptic storm floods and tropical cyclone-enhanced floods had the greatest influence on 100-year and 200-year flood estimates. This was especially true in southern Arizona, even though summer convective floods are much more frequent and therefore dominate the composite curve. Using the EMA approach also influenced our results because all possible low outliers were censored by the built-in Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test, providing a better fit to the systematic data in the upper probabilities. In conclusion, flood heterogeneity can play an important role in regional flood frequency variations in Arizona and that understanding its influence is important when making projections about future flood variations.

  11. A radar-based hydrological model for flash flood prediction in the dry regions of Israel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ronen, Alon; Peleg, Nadav; Morin, Efrat

    2014-05-01

    Flash floods are floods which follow shortly after rainfall events, and are among the most destructive natural disasters that strike people and infrastructures in humid and arid regions alike. Using a hydrological model for the prediction of flash floods in gauged and ungauged basins can help mitigate the risk and damage they cause. The sparsity of rain gauges in arid regions requires the use of radar measurements in order to get reliable quantitative precipitation estimations (QPE). While many hydrological models use radar data, only a handful do so in dry climate. This research presents a robust radar-based hydro-meteorological model built specifically for dry climate. Using this model we examine the governing factors of flash floods in the arid and semi-arid regions of Israel in particular and in dry regions in general. The hydrological model built is a semi-distributed, physically-based model, which represents the main hydrological processes in the area, namely infiltration, flow routing and transmission losses. Three infiltration functions were examined - Initial & Constant, SCS-CN and Green&Ampt. The parameters for each function were found by calibration based on 53 flood events in three catchments, and validation was performed using 55 flood events in six catchments. QPE were obtained from a C-band weather radar and adjusted using a weighted multiple regression method based on a rain gauge network. Antecedent moisture conditions were calculated using a daily recharge assessment model (DREAM). We found that the SCS-CN infiltration function performed better than the other two, with reasonable agreement between calculated and measured peak discharge. Effects of storm characteristics were studied using synthetic storms from a high resolution weather generator (HiReS-WG), and showed a strong correlation between storm speed, storm direction and rain depth over desert soils to flood volume and peak discharge.

  12. Improving a DSM Obtained by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Flood Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mourato, Sandra; Fernandez, Paulo; Pereira, Luísa; Moreira, Madalena

    2017-12-01

    According to the EU flood risks directive, flood hazard map must be used to assess the flood risk. These maps can be developed with hydraulic modelling tools using a Digital Surface Runoff Model (DSRM). During the last decade, important evolutions of the spatial data processing has been developed which will certainly improve the hydraulic models results. Currently, images acquired with Red/Green/Blue (RGB) camera transported by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are seen as a good alternative data sources to represent the terrain surface with a high level of resolution and precision. The question is if the digital surface model obtain with this data is adequate enough for a good representation of the hydraulics flood characteristics. For this purpose, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS was run with 4 different DSRM for an 8.5 km reach of the Lis River in Portugal. The computational performance of the 4 modelling implementations is evaluated. Two hydrometric stations water level records were used as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model. The records from a third hydrometric station were used to validate the optimal DSRM. The HEC-RAS results had the best performance during the validation step were the ones where the DSRM with integration of the two altimetry data sources.

  13. Flood Hazard Management: British and International Perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    James, L. Douglas

    This proceedings of an international workshop at the Flood Hazard Research Centre (Queensway, Enfield, Middlesex, U.K.) begins by noting how past British research on flood problems concentrated on refining techniques to implement established policy. In contrast, research covered in North American and Australian publications involved normative issues on policy alternatives and administrative implementation. The workshop's participants included 16 widely recognized scientists, whose origins were about equally divided between Britain and overseas; from this group the workshop's organizers expertly drew ideas for refining British urban riverine flood hazard management and for cultivating links among researchers everywhere. Such intellectual exchange should be of keen interest to flood hazard program managers around the world, to students of comparative institutional performance, to those who make policy on protecting people from hazards, and to hydrologists and other geophysicists who must communicate descriptive information for bureaucratic, political, and public decision- making.

  14. Flow Field Analysis of Fish Farm and Planting Area in Floodplain during Flood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, M.; Tan, H. N.; Lo, W. C.; Tsai, C. T.

    2017-12-01

    Fish farms constructing and crops planting is common in floodplain in Taiwan. The physiographic soil erosion-deposition (PSED) model was applied to simulate the sediment yield, the runoff, and sediment transport rate of the river watershed corresponding to one-day rainstorms of the return periods of 25, 50, and 100 year. The variation of flow field in the river sections could be simulated by utilizing the alluvial river-movable bed two dimensional (ARMB-2D) model. The results reveal that the tendency of river discharge, sediment deposition and erosion obtained from these two models is agreeable by calibration and verification. The water flow affected by fish farms and planting areas in floodplain during flood was analyzed. Lastly, based on the simulation results obtained from the PESD and ARMB-2D models for one-day rainstorms of the return periods of 25, 50, and 100 year, the illegal fish farms and planting area with severe variations of river flow and affected he capability for flood conveyance will be referred to as the demolishing-to-be areas. We could also suggest the management strategy of application for fish farms constructing and crops planting in river areas by incorporating the ability of our model to provide information of river flow to enhance the flood conveyance.

  15. Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Impact of Flash Flooding on the Rice Production: A Case Study over Northeastern Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Kok, Aaron; Hassan, Quazi K.

    2017-01-01

    The northeastern region of Bangladesh often experiences flash flooding during the pre-harvesting period of the boro rice crop, which is the major cereal crop in the country. In this study, our objective was to delineate the impact of the 2017 flash flood (that initiated on 27 March 2017) on boro rice using multi-temporal Landsat-8 OLI and MODIS data. Initially, we opted to use Landsat-8 OLI data for mapping the damages; however, during and after the flooding event the acquisition of cloud free images were challenging. Thus, we used this data to map the cultivated boro rice acreage considering the planting to mature stages of the crop. Also, in order to map the extent of the damaged boro area, we utilized MODIS data as their 16-day composites provided cloud free information. Our results indicated that both the cultivated and damaged boro area estimates based on satellite data had strong relationships while compared to the ground-based estimates (i.e., r2 values approximately 0.92 for both cases, and RMSE of 18,374 and 9380 ha for cultivated and damaged areas, respectively). Finally, we believe that our study would be critical for planning and ensuring food security for the country. PMID:29036896

  16. Remote Sensing-Based Quantification of the Impact of Flash Flooding on the Rice Production: A Case Study over Northeastern Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Ahmed, M Razu; Rahaman, Khan Rubayet; Kok, Aaron; Hassan, Quazi K

    2017-10-14

    The northeastern region of Bangladesh often experiences flash flooding during the pre-harvesting period of the boro rice crop, which is the major cereal crop in the country. In this study, our objective was to delineate the impact of the 2017 flash flood (that initiated on 27 March 2017) on boro rice using multi-temporal Landsat-8 OLI and MODIS data. Initially, we opted to use Landsat-8 OLI data for mapping the damages; however, during and after the flooding event the acquisition of cloud free images were challenging. Thus, we used this data to map the cultivated boro rice acreage considering the planting to mature stages of the crop. Also, in order to map the extent of the damaged boro area, we utilized MODIS data as their 16-day composites provided cloud free information. Our results indicated that both the cultivated and damaged boro area estimates based on satellite data had strong relationships while compared to the ground-based estimates (i.e., r ² values approximately 0.92 for both cases, and RMSE of 18,374 and 9380 ha for cultivated and damaged areas, respectively). Finally, we believe that our study would be critical for planning and ensuring food security for the country.

  17. Lead-acid batteries for micro- and mild-hybrid applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valenciano, J.; Fernández, M.; Trinidad, F.; Sanz, L.

    Car manufactures have announced the launch in coming months of vehicles with reduced emissions due to the introduction of new functions like stop-start and regenerative braking. Initial performance request of automotive lead-acid batteries are becoming more and more demanding and, in addition to this, cycle life with new accelerated ageing profiles are being proposed in order to determine the influence of the new functions on the expected battery life. This paper will show how different lead-acid battery technologies comply with these new demands, from an improved version of the conventional flooded SLI battery to the high performance of spiral wound valve-regulated lead-acid (VRLA) battery. Different approaches have been studied for improving conventional flooded batteries, i.e., either by the addition of new additives for reducing electrolyte stratification or by optimisation of the battery design to extend cycling life in partial state of charge conditions. With respect to VRLA technology, two different battery designs have been compared. Spiral wound design combines excellent power capability and cycle life under different depth of discharge (DoD) cycling conditions, but flat plate design outperform the latter in energy density due to better utilization of the space available in a prismatic enclosure. This latter design is more adequate for high end class vehicles with high electrical energy demand, whereas spiral wound is better suited for high power/long life demand of commercial vehicle. High temperature behaviour (75 °C) is rather poor for both designs due to water loss, and then VRLA batteries should preferably be located out of the engine compartment.

  18. Molecular epidemiology of Vibrio cholerae associated with flood in Brahamputra River valley, Assam, India.

    PubMed

    Bhuyan, Soubhagya K; Vairale, Mohan G; Arya, Neha; Yadav, Priti; Veer, Vijay; Singh, Lokendra; Yadava, Pramod K; Kumar, Pramod

    2016-06-01

    Cholera is often caused when drinking water is contaminated through environmental sources. In recent years, the drastic cholera epidemics in Odisha (2007) and Haiti (2010) were associated with natural disasters (flood and Earthquake). Almost every year the state of Assam India witnesses flood in Brahamputra River valley during reversal of wind system (monsoon). This is often followed by outbreak of diarrheal diseases including cholera. Beside the incidence of cholera outbreaks, there is lack of experimental evidence for prevalence of the bacterium in aquatic environment and its association with cholera during/after flood in the state. A molecular surveillance during 2012-14 was carried out to study prevalence, strain differentiation, and clonality of Vibrio cholerae in inland aquatic reservoirs flooded by Brahamputra River in Assam. Water samples were collected, filtered, enriched in alkaline peptone water followed by selective culturing on thiosulfate bile salt sucrose agar. Environmental isolates were identified as V. cholerae, based on biochemical assays followed by sero-grouping and detailed molecular characterization. The incidence of the presence of the bacterium in potable water sources was higher after flood. Except one O1 isolate, all of the strains were broadly grouped under non-O1/non-O139 whereas some of them did have cholera toxin (CT). Surprisingly, we have noticed Haitian ctxB in two non-O1/non-O139 strains. MLST analyses based on pyrH, recA and rpoA genes revealed clonality in the environmental strains. The isolates showed varying degree of antimicrobial resistance including tetracycline and ciprofloxacin. The strains harbored the genetic elements SXT constins and integrons responsible for multidrug resistance. Genetic characterization is useful as phenotypic characters alone have proven to be unsatisfactory for strain discrimination. An assurance to safe drinking water, sanitation and monitoring of the aquatic reservoirs is of utmost importance for combating the impending epidemic threat in the flood affected areas. Further, the management of flood through multi-prong approaches and sustainable utilization of environmental resources would be effective in disease management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Hurricane Sandy: Caught in the eye of the storm and a city's adaptation response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orton, P. M.; Horton, R. M.; Blumberg, A. F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.; Bader, D.

    2015-12-01

    The NOAA RISA program has funded the seven-institution Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN) for the past five years to serve stakeholder needs in assessing and managing risks from climate variability and change. When Hurricane Sandy struck, we were in an ideal position, making flood forecasts and communicating NOAA forecasts to the public with dozens of media placements, translating the poorly understood flood forecasts into human dimensions. In 2013 and 2015, by request of New York City (NYC), we worked through the NYC Panel on Climate Change to deliver updated climate risk assessment reports, to be used in the post-Sandy rebuilding and resiliency efforts. These utilized innovative methodologies for probabilistic local and regional sea level change projections, and contrasted methods of dynamic versus (the more common) static flood mapping. We participated in a federal-academic partnership that developed a Sea Level Tool for Sandy Recovery that integrates CCRUN sea level rise projections with policy-relevant FEMA flood maps, and now several updated flood maps and coastal flood mapping tools (NOAA, FEMA, and USACE) incorporate our projections. For the adaptation response, we helped develop NYC's $20 billion flood adaptation plan, and we were on a winning team under the Housing and Urban Development Rebuild By Design (RBD) competition, a few of the many opportunities that arose with negligible additional funding and which CCRUN funds supported. Our work at times disrupted standard lines of thinking, but NYC showed an openness to altering course. In one case we showed that an NYC plan of wetland restoration in Jamaica Bay would provide no reduction in flooding unless deep-dredged channels circumventing them were shallowed or narrowed. In another, the lead author's RBD team challenged the notion at one location that levees were the solution to accelerating sea level rise, developing a plan to use ecological breakwaters and layered components of physical and social resilience. CCRUN has succeeded in winning another five years of RISA funding, and this will enable us to continue our climate risk and adaptation work for the entire Urban Northeast.

  20. Quenching behavior of molten pool with different strategies – A review

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Shrikant,, E-mail: 2014rmt9018@mnit.ac.in; Pandel, U.; Duchaniya, R. K.

    After the major severe accident in nuclear reactor, there has been lot of concerns regarding long term core melt stabilization following a severe accident in nuclear reactors. Numerous strategies have been though for quenching and stabilization of core melt like top flooding, bottom flooding, indirect cooling, etc. However, the effectiveness of these schemes is yet to be determined properly, for which, lot of experiments are needed. Several experiments have been performed for coolability of melt pool under bottom flooding as well as for indirect cooling. Besides these tests are very scattered because they involve different simulants material initial temperatures andmore » masses of melt, which makes it very complex to judge the effectiveness of a particular technique and advantage over the other. In this review paper, a study has been carried on different cooling techniques of simulant materials with same mass. Three techniques have been compared here and the results are discussed. Under top flooding technique it took several hours to cool the melt under without decay heat condition. In bottom flooding technique was found to be the best technique among in indirect cooling technique, top flooded technique, and bottom flooded technique.« less

  1. Regional L-Moment-Based Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upper Vistula River Basin, Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutkowska, A.; Żelazny, M.; Kohnová, S.; Łyp, M.; Banasik, K.

    2017-02-01

    The Upper Vistula River basin was divided into pooling groups with similar dimensionless frequency distributions of annual maximum river discharge. The cluster analysis and the Hosking and Wallis (HW) L-moment-based method were used to divide the set of 52 mid-sized catchments into disjoint clusters with similar morphometric, land use, and rainfall variables, and to test the homogeneity within clusters. Finally, three and four pooling groups were obtained alternatively. Two methods for identification of the regional distribution function were used, the HW method and the method of Kjeldsen and Prosdocimi based on a bivariate extension of the HW measure. Subsequently, the flood quantile estimates were calculated using the index flood method. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the generalised least squares (GLS) regression techniques were used to relate the index flood to catchment characteristics. Predictive performance of the regression scheme for the southern part of the Upper Vistula River basin was improved by using GLS instead of OLS. The results of the study can be recommended for the estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites, in flood risk mapping applications, and in engineering hydrology to help design flood protection structures.

  2. Flood Warning and Forecasting System in Slovakia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leskova, Danica

    2016-04-01

    In 2015, it finished project Flood Warning and Forecasting System (POVAPSYS) as part of the flood protection in Slovakia till 2010. The aim was to build POVAPSYS integrated computerized flood forecasting and warning system. It took a qualitatively higher level of output meteorological and hydrological services in case of floods affecting large territorial units, as well as local flood events. It is further unfolding demands on performance and coordination of meteorological and hydrological services, troubleshooting observation, evaluation of data, fast communication, modeling and forecasting of meteorological and hydrological processes. Integration of all information entering and exiting to and from the project POVAPSYS provides Hydrological Flood Forecasting System (HYPOS). The system provides information on the current hydrometeorological situation and its evolution with the generation of alerts and notifications in case of exceeding predefined thresholds. HYPOS's functioning of the system requires flawless operability in critical situations while minimizing the loss of its key parts. HYPOS is a core part of the project POVAPSYS, it is a comprehensive software solutions based on a modular principle, providing data and processed information including alarms, in real time. In order to achieve full functionality of the system, in proposal, we have put emphasis on reliability, robustness, availability and security.

  3. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren

    2017-04-01

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g. DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized catchment area of 440ha and 10.400inhab. located in Jutland (Denmark), which has received the impact of several pluvial flooding in the last recent years. A historical rainfall dataset from the last 35 years from two different rain gauges located at 2 and 10 km from the study area has been provided by the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The most extreme 25 rainfall events have been selected through a two-step multi-criteria procedure, ensuring an adequate variability of rainfall, from extreme high peak storms with a short duration to moderate rainfall with longer duration. In addition, a coupled 1D/2D surface and network UDS model of the catchment area developed in an integrated MIKE URBAN and MIKE Flood model (DHI 2014), considering both permeable and impermeable areas, in combination with a DTM (2x2m res.) has been used to study and assess in detail flood RP. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall RP and flood response. Local flood levels, flood area and volume RP estimates should therefore not be neglected in order to guarantee quality of the assessment, especially in design of complex UDS, where features as the main slope, hydraulic capacity, permeability, etc. can play an important role. In addition, a novel approach has been applied to map the response time (Tc) of the flood prone areas of the system under study. Together with the flood area and volume RP estimates this provides valuable knowledge suggesting to consider the different subareas of the UDS for design purposes and to establish a robust database that allows urban areas to be resilient against the severe impact of rainfall. Acknowledgement to ERA-NET Cofund Water Works 2014 (project MUFFIN) for the partial funding of this research; to the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) for providing the rainfall dataset; to the Danish Geodata Agency for providing the DTM data and to DHI for providing license to MIKE software packages. The applied model has been made available for this study by Aarhus Water Utility Services. References DHI, 2014. MIKE by DHI software package 2014. Hørsholm, DK. DS/EN 752, 2008. Drain and sewer systems outside buildings.

  4. Integration of Grid and Sensor Web for Flood Monitoring and Risk Assessment from Heterogeneous Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

    2013-04-01

    Over last decades we have witnessed the upward global trend in natural disaster occurrence. Hydrological and meteorological disasters such as floods are the main contributors to this pattern. In recent years flood management has shifted from protection against floods to managing the risks of floods (the European Flood risk directive). In order to enable operational flood monitoring and assessment of flood risk, it is required to provide an infrastructure with standardized interfaces and services. Grid and Sensor Web can meet these requirements. In this paper we present a general approach to flood monitoring and risk assessment based on heterogeneous geospatial data acquired from multiple sources. To enable operational flood risk assessment integration of Grid and Sensor Web approaches is proposed [1]. Grid represents a distributed environment that integrates heterogeneous computing and storage resources administrated by multiple organizations. SensorWeb is an emerging paradigm for integrating heterogeneous satellite and in situ sensors and data systems into a common informational infrastructure that produces products on demand. The basic Sensor Web functionality includes sensor discovery, triggering events by observed or predicted conditions, remote data access and processing capabilities to generate and deliver data products. Sensor Web is governed by the set of standards, called Sensor Web Enablement (SWE), developed by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). Different practical issues regarding integration of Sensor Web with Grids are discussed in the study. We show how the Sensor Web can benefit from using Grids and vice versa. For example, Sensor Web services such as SOS, SPS and SAS can benefit from the integration with the Grid platform like Globus Toolkit. The proposed approach is implemented within the Sensor Web framework for flood monitoring and risk assessment, and a case-study of exploiting this framework, namely the Namibia SensorWeb Pilot Project, is described. The project was created as a testbed for evaluating and prototyping key technologies for rapid acquisition and distribution of data products for decision support systems to monitor floods and enable flood risk assessment. The system provides access to real-time products on rainfall estimates and flood potential forecast derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) mission with lag time of 6 h, alerts from the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) with lag time of 4 h, and the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) model to generate alerts. These are alerts are used to trigger satellite observations. With deployed SPS service for NASA's EO-1 satellite it is possible to automatically task sensor with re-image capability of less 8 h. Therefore, with enabled computational and storage services provided by Grid and cloud infrastructure it was possible to generate flood maps within 24-48 h after trigger was alerted. To enable interoperability between system components and services OGC-compliant standards are utilized. [1] Hluchy L., Kussul N., Shelestov A., Skakun S., Kravchenko O., Gripich Y., Kopp P., Lupian E., "The Data Fusion Grid Infrastructure: Project Objectives and Achievements," Computing and Informatics, 2010, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 319-334.

  5. Accounting for rainfall spatial variability in the prediction of flash floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saharia, Manabendra; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Hong, Yang; Vergara, Humberto; Flamig, Zachary L.

    2017-04-01

    Flash floods are a particularly damaging natural hazard worldwide in terms of both fatalities and property damage. In the United States, the lack of a comprehensive database that catalogues information related to flash flood timing, location, causative rainfall, and basin geomorphology has hindered broad characterization studies. First a representative and long archive of more than 15,000 flooding events during 2002-2011 is used to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of flash floods. We also derive large number of spatially distributed geomorphological and climatological parameters such as basin area, mean annual precipitation, basin slope etc. to identify static basin characteristics that influence flood response. For the same period, the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) has produced a decadal archive of Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) radar-only precipitation rates at 1-km spatial resolution with 5-min temporal resolution. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to analyze the impact of event-level precipitation variability on flooding using a big data approach. To analyze the impact of sub-basin scale rainfall spatial variability on flooding, certain indices such as the first and second scaled moment of rainfall, horizontal gap, vertical gap etc. are computed from the MRMS dataset. Finally, flooding characteristics such as rise time, lag time, and peak discharge are linked to derived geomorphologic, climatologic, and rainfall indices to identify basin characteristics that drive flash floods. The database has been subjected to rigorous quality control by accounting for radar beam height and percentage snow in basins. So far studies involving rainfall variability indices have only been performed on a case study basis, and a large scale approach is expected to provide a deeper insight into how sub-basin scale precipitation variability affects flooding. Finally, these findings are validated using the National Weather Service storm reports and a historical flood fatalities database. This analysis framework will serve as a baseline for evaluating distributed hydrologic model simulations such as the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrographs Project (FLASH) (http://flash.ou.edu).

  6. A first large-scale flood inundation forecasting model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Schumann, Guy J-P; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Voisin, Nathalie

    2013-11-04

    At present continental to global scale flood forecasting focusses on predicting at a point discharge, with little attention to the detail and accuracy of local scale inundation predictions. Yet, inundation is actually the variable of interest and all flood impacts are inherently local in nature. This paper proposes a first large scale flood inundation ensemble forecasting model that uses best available data and modeling approaches in data scarce areas and at continental scales. The model was built for the Lower Zambezi River in southeast Africa to demonstrate current flood inundation forecasting capabilities in large data-scarce regions. The inundation model domainmore » has a surface area of approximately 170k km2. ECMWF meteorological data were used to force the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) macro-scale hydrological model which simulated and routed daily flows to the input boundary locations of the 2-D hydrodynamic model. Efficient hydrodynamic modeling over large areas still requires model grid resolutions that are typically larger than the width of many river channels that play a key a role in flood wave propagation. We therefore employed a novel sub-grid channel scheme to describe the river network in detail whilst at the same time representing the floodplain at an appropriate and efficient scale. The modeling system was first calibrated using water levels on the main channel from the ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimeter and then applied to predict the February 2007 Mozambique floods. Model evaluation showed that simulated flood edge cells were within a distance of about 1 km (one model resolution) compared to an observed flood edge of the event. Our study highlights that physically plausible parameter values and satisfactory performance can be achieved at spatial scales ranging from tens to several hundreds of thousands of km2 and at model grid resolutions up to several km2. However, initial model test runs in forecast mode revealed that it is crucial to account for basin-wide hydrological response time when assessing lead time performances notwithstanding structural limitations in the hydrological model and possibly large inaccuracies in precipitation data.« less

  7. Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, Colin; Fayne, Jessica

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data, researchers can develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts resulting from flood disaster events.

  8. A framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure in mitigating urban flood hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schubert, Jochen E.; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Sanders, Brett F.

    2017-10-01

    This research outlines a framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure (GI) performance in mitigating flood hazard in small urban catchments. The urban hydrologic modeling tool (MUSIC) is coupled with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with GI, rainwater tanks and infiltration trenches in particular, can propagate flood management benefits downstream and support intuitive flood hazard maps useful for communicating and planning with communities. The hydrologic and hydraulic models are calibrated based on current catchment conditions, then modified to represent alternative GI scenarios including a complete lack of GI versus a full implementation of GI. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 1-63% and durations from 10 min to 24 h. Flood hazard benefits mapped by the framework include maximum flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Application of the system to the Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment shows that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 h, presently implemented GI reduces downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of GI would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of GI could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing the drowning hazard posed by urban streams and improving the potential for access by emergency responders. For storm durations longer than 3 h, a full implementation of GI lacks the capacity to retain the resulting rainfall depths and only reduces flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%.

  9. Upstream structural management measures for an urban area flooding in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akyurek, Z.; Bozoğlu, B.; Sürer, S.; Mumcu, H.

    2015-06-01

    In recent years, flooding has become an increasing concern across many parts of the world of both the general public and their governments. The climate change inducing more intense rainfall events occurring in short period of time lead flooding in rural and urban areas. In this study the flood modelling in an urbanized area, namely Samsun-Terme in Blacksea region of Turkey is performed. MIKE21 with flexible grid is used in 2-dimensional shallow water flow modelling. 1 × 1000-1 scaled maps with the buildings for the urbanized area and 1 × 5000-1 scaled maps for the rural parts are used to obtain DTM needed in the flood modelling. The bathymetry of the river is obtained from additional surveys. The main river passing through the urbanized area has a capacity of 500 m3 s-1 according to the design discharge obtained by simple ungauged discharge estimation depending on catchment area only. The upstream structural base precautions against flooding are modelled. The effect of four main upstream catchments on the flooding in the downstream urban area are modelled as different scenarios. It is observed that if the flow from the upstream catchments can be retarded through a detention pond constructed in one of the upstream catchments, estimated Q100 flood can be conveyed by the river without overtopping from the river channel. The operation of the upstream detention ponds and the scenarios to convey Q500 without causing flooding are also presented. Structural management measures to address changes in flood characteristics in water management planning are discussed.

  10. Extending flood forecasting lead time in a large watershed by coupling WRF QPF with a distributed hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Ji; Chen, Yangbo; Wang, Huanyu; Qin, Jianming; Li, Jie; Chiao, Sen

    2017-03-01

    Long lead time flood forecasting is very important for large watershed flood mitigation as it provides more time for flood warning and emergency responses. The latest numerical weather forecast model could provide 1-15-day quantitative precipitation forecasting products in grid format, and by coupling this product with a distributed hydrological model could produce long lead time watershed flood forecasting products. This paper studied the feasibility of coupling the Liuxihe model with the Weather Research and Forecasting quantitative precipitation forecast (WRF QPF) for large watershed flood forecasting in southern China. The QPF of WRF products has three lead times, including 24, 48 and 72 h, with the grid resolution being 20 km  × 20 km. The Liuxihe model is set up with freely downloaded terrain property; the model parameters were previously optimized with rain gauge observed precipitation, and re-optimized with the WRF QPF. Results show that the WRF QPF has bias with the rain gauge precipitation, and a post-processing method is proposed to post-process the WRF QPF products, which improves the flood forecasting capability. With model parameter re-optimization, the model's performance improves also. This suggests that the model parameters be optimized with QPF, not the rain gauge precipitation. With the increasing of lead time, the accuracy of the WRF QPF decreases, as does the flood forecasting capability. Flood forecasting products produced by coupling the Liuxihe model with the WRF QPF provide a good reference for large watershed flood warning due to its long lead time and rational results.

  11. Responses to flooding of plant water relations and leaf gas exchange in tropical tolerant trees of a black-water wetland.

    PubMed

    Herrera, A

    2013-01-01

    This review summarizes the research on physiological responses to flooding of trees in the seasonal black-water wetland of the Mapire River in Venezuela. Inter-annual variability was found during 8 years of sampling, in spite of which a general picture emerged of increased stomatal conductance (gs) and photosynthetic rate (PN) during the flooded period to values as high as or higher than in plants in drained wet soil. Models explaining the initial inhibitory responses and the acclimation to flooding are proposed. In the inhibitory phase of flooding, hypoxia generated by flooding causes a decrease in root water absorption and stomatal closure. An increase with flooding in xylem water potential (ψ) suggests that flooding does not cause water deficit. The PN decreases due to changes in relative stomatal and non-stomatal limitations to photosynthesis; an increase in the latter is due to reduced chlorophyll and total soluble protein content. Total non-structural carbohydrates (TNC) accumulate in leaves but their content begins to decrease during the acclimatized phase at full flooding, coinciding with the resumption of high gs and PN. The reversal of the diminution in gs is associated, in some but not all species, to the growth of adventitious roots. The occurrence of morpho-anatomical and biochemical adaptations which improve oxygen supply would cause the acclimation, including increased water absorption by the roots, increased rubisco and chlorophyll contents and ultimately increased PN. Therefore, trees would perform as if flooding did not signify a stress to their physiology.

  12. Topography-based Flood Planning and Optimization Capability Development Report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Judi, David R.; Tasseff, Byron A.; Bent, Russell W.

    2014-02-26

    Globally, water-related disasters are among the most frequent and costly natural hazards. Flooding inflicts catastrophic damage on critical infrastructure and population, resulting in substantial economic and social costs. NISAC is developing LeveeSim, a suite of nonlinear and network optimization models, to predict optimal barrier placement to protect critical regions and infrastructure during flood events. LeveeSim currently includes a high-performance flood model to simulate overland flow, as well as a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement during a flood event. The LeveeSim suite models the effects of flooding in predefined regions. By manipulating a domain’s underlying topography, developers alteredmore » flood propagation to reduce detrimental effects in areas of interest. This numerical altering of a domain’s topography is analogous to building levees, placing sandbags, etc. To induce optimal changes in topography, NISAC used a novel application of an optimization algorithm to minimize flooding effects in regions of interest. To develop LeveeSim, NISAC constructed and coupled hydrodynamic and optimization algorithms. NISAC first implemented its existing flood modeling software to use massively parallel graphics processing units (GPUs), which allowed for the simulation of larger domains and longer timescales. NISAC then implemented a network optimization model to predict optimal barrier placement based on output from flood simulations. As proof of concept, NISAC developed five simple test scenarios, and optimized topographic solutions were compared with intuitive solutions. Finally, as an early validation example, barrier placement was optimized to protect an arbitrary region in a simulation of the historic Taum Sauk dam breach.« less

  13. Seasonal water stress tolerance and habitat associations within four neotropical tree genera.

    PubMed

    Baraloto, Christopher; Morneau, François; Bonal, Damien; Blanc, Lilian; Ferry, Bruno

    2007-02-01

    We investigated the relationship between habitat association and physiological performance in four congeneric species pairs exhibiting contrasting distributions between seasonally flooded and terra firme habitats in lowland tropical rain forests of French Guiana, including Virola and Iryanthera (Myristicaceae), Symphonia (Clusiaceae), and Eperua (Caesalpiniaceae). We analyzed 10-year data sets of mapped and measured saplings (stems >150 cm in height and <10 cm diameter at breast height [dbh]) and trees (stems > or =10 cm dbh) across 37.5 ha of permanent plots covering a 300-ha zone, within which seasonally flooded areas (where the water table never descends below 1 m) have been mapped. Additionally, we tested the response of growth, survival, and leaf functional traits of these species to drought and flood stress in a controlled experiment. We tested for habitat preference using a modification of the torus translation method. Strong contrasting associations of the species pairs of Iryanthera, Virola, and Symphonia were observed at the sapling stage, and these associations strengthened for the tree stage. Neither species of Eperua was significantly associated with flooded habitats at the sapling stage, but E. falcata was significantly and positively associated with flooded forests at the tree stage, and trees of E. grandiflora were found almost exclusively in nonflooded habitats. Differential performance provided limited explanatory support for the observed habitat associations, with only congeners of Iryanthera exhibiting divergent sapling survival and tree growth. Seedlings of species associated with flooded forest tended to have higher photosynthetic capacity than their congeners at field capacity. In addition, they tended to have the largest reductions in leaf gas exchange and growth rate in response to experimental drought stress and the least reductions in response to experimental inundation. The corroboration of habitat association with differences in functional traits and, to a lesser extent, measures of performance provides an explanation for the regional coexistence of these species pairs. We suggest that specialization to seasonally flooded habitats may explain patterns of adaptive radiation in many tropical tree genera and thereby provide a substantial contribution to regional tree diversity.

  14. Flash flood hazard assessment through modelling in small semi-arid watersheds. The example of the Beni Mellal watershed in Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werren, G.; Balin, D.; Reynard, E.; Lane, S. N.

    2012-04-01

    Flood modelling is essential for flood hazard assessment. Modelling becomes a challenge in small, ungauged watersheds prone to flash floods, like the ones draining the town of Beni Mellal (Morocco). Four temporary streams meet in the urban area of Beni Mellal, producing every year sheet floods, harmful to infrastructure and to people. Here, statistical analysis may not give realistic results, but the study of these repeated real flash flood events may provide a better understanding of watershed specific hydrology. This study integrates a larger cooperation project between Switzerland and Morroco, aimed at knowledge transfer in disaster risk reduction, especially through hazard mapping and land-use planning, related to implementation of hazard maps. Hydrologic and hydraulic modelling was carried out to obtain hazard maps. An important point was to find open source data and methods that could still produce a realistic model for the area concerned, in order to provide easy-to-use, cost-effective tools for risk management in developing countries like Morocco, where routine data collection is largely lacking. The data used for modelling is the Web available TRMM 3-Hour 0.25 degree rainfall data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Project (TRMM). Hydrologic modelling for discharge estimation was undertaken using methods available in the HEC-HMS software provided by the US Army Corps of Engineers® (USACE). Several transfer models were used, so as to choose the best-suited method available. As no model calibration was possible for no measured flow data was available, a one-at-the-time sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters chosen, in order to detect their influence on the results. But the most important verification method remained field observation, through post-flood field campaigns aimed at mapping water surfaces and depths in the flooded areas, as well as river section monitoring, where rough discharge estimates could be obtained using empirical equations. Another information source was local knowledge, as people could give a rough estimation of concentration time by describing flood evolution. Finally, hydraulic modelling of the flooded areas in the urban perimeter was performed using the USACE HEC-RAS® software capabilities. A specific challenge at this stage was field morphology, as the flooded areas form large alluvial fans, with very different flood behaviour compared to flood plains. Model "calibration" at this stage was undertaken using the mapped water surfaces and depths. Great care was taken for field geometry design, where field observations, measured cross sections and field images were used to improve the existing DTM data. The model included protection dikes already built by local authorities in their flood-fight effort. Because of flash-flood specific behaviour, only maximal flooded surfaces and flow velocities were simulated through steady flow analysis in HEC-RAS. The discharge estimates obtained for the chosen event were comparable to 10-year return periods as estimated by the watershed authorities. Times of concentration correspond to this previous estimation and to local people descriptions. The modelled water surfaces reflect field reality. Flash-flood modelling demands extensive knowledge of the studied field in order to compensate data scarcity. However, more precise data, like radar rainfall estimates available in Morocco, would definitely improve outputs. In this perspective, better data access at the local level and good use of the available methods could benefit the disaster risk reduction effort as a whole.

  15. Nested 1D-2D approach for urban surface flood modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murla, Damian; Willems, Patrick

    2015-04-01

    Floods in urban areas as a consequence of sewer capacity exceedance receive increased attention because of trends in urbanization (increased population density and impermeability of the surface) and climate change. Despite the strong recent developments in numerical modeling of water systems, urban surface flood modeling is still a major challenge. Whereas very advanced and accurate flood modeling systems are in place and operation by many river authorities in support of flood management along rivers, this is not yet the case in urban water management. Reasons include the small scale of the urban inundation processes, the need to have very high resolution topographical information available, and the huge computational demands. Urban drainage related inundation modeling requires a 1D full hydrodynamic model of the sewer network to be coupled with a 2D surface flood model. To reduce the computational times, 0D (flood cones), 1D/quasi-2D surface flood modeling approaches have been developed and applied in some case studies. In this research, a nested 1D/2D hydraulic model has been developed for an urban catchment at the city of Gent (Belgium), linking the underground sewer (minor system) with the overland surface (major system). For the overland surface flood modelling, comparison was made of 0D, 1D/quasi-2D and full 2D approaches. The approaches are advanced by considering nested 1D-2D approaches, including infiltration in the green city areas, and allowing the effects of surface storm water storage to be simulated. An optimal nested combination of three different mesh resolutions was identified; based on a compromise between precision and simulation time for further real-time flood forecasting, warning and control applications. Main streets as mesh zones together with buildings as void regions constitute one of these mesh resolution (3.75m2 - 15m2); they have been included since they channel most of the flood water from the manholes and they improve the accuracy of interactions within the 1D sewer network. Other areas that recorded flooding outside the main streets have been also included with the second mesh resolution for an accurate determination of flood maps (12.5m2 - 50m2). Permeable areas have been identified and used as infiltration zones using the Horton infiltration model. A mesh sensitivity analysis has been performed for the low flood risk areas for a proper model optimization. As outcome of that analysis, the third mesh resolution has been chosen (75m2 - 300m2). Performance tests have been applied for several synthetic design storms as well as historical storm events displaying satisfactory results upon comparing the flood mapping outcomes produced by the different approaches. Accounting for the infiltration in the green city spaces reduces the flood extents in the range 39% - 68%, while the average reduction in flood volume equals 86%. Acknowledgement: Funding for this research was provided by the Interreg IVB NWE programme (project RainGain) and the Belgian Science Policy Office (project PLURISK). The high resolution topographical information data were obtained from the geographical information service AGIV; the original full hydrodynamic sewer network model from the service company Farys, and the InfoWorks licence from Innovyze.

  16. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Crandall, Dustin M.; Moore, Johnathan E.; Tudek, John K.

    Evaluation of the fate and transport of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in deep reservoirs is crucial to the development of long-term geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) technologies. In this report, various studies using computed tomography (CT) scanning are utilized in conjunction with traditional flow tests to observe the multi-scale phenomena associated with CO 2 injection in geologic media. Pore scale analyses were performed to determine the infiltration characteristics of CO 2 into a brine saturated reservoir rock. Multiphase floods were performed to evaluate the saturation of CO 2 into a brine-saturated reservoir rock and determine how structural changes within the lithologymore » affect such interactions. Additionally, CO 2 induced swelling of unconventional reservoir rock was evaluated with respect to reductions in fracture transmissivity due to matrix swelling. These studies are just a few examples of the benefits of multi-scale CT imaging in conjunction with traditional laboratory methodology to gain a better understanding of the interactions between CO 2 and the lithologies it interacts with during GCS.« less

  17. Spatially distributed model calibration of flood inundation guided by consequences such as loss of property

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappenberger, F.; Beven, K. J.; Frodsham, K.; Matgen, P.

    2005-12-01

    Flood inundation models play an increasingly important role in assessing flood risk. The growth of 2D inundation models that are intimately related to raster maps of floodplains is occurring at the same time as an increase in the availability of 2D remote data (e.g. SAR images and aerial photographs), against which model performancee can be evaluated. This requires new techniques to be explored in order to evaluate model performance in two dimensional space. In this paper we present a fuzzified pattern matching algorithm which compares favorably to a set of traditional measures. However, we further argue that model calibration has to go beyond the comparison of physical properties and should demonstrate how a weighting towards consequences, such as loss of property, can enhance model focus and prediction. Indeed, it will be necessary to abandon a fully spatial comparison in many scenarios to concentrate the model calibration exercise on specific points such as hospitals, police stations or emergency response centers. It can be shown that such point evaluations lead to significantly different flood hazard maps due to the averaging effect of a spatial performance measure. A strategy to balance the different needs (accuracy at certain spatial points and acceptable spatial performance) has to be based in a public and political decision making process.

  18. A hydro-sedimentary modeling system for flash flood propagation and hazard estimation under different agricultural practices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kourgialas, N. N.; Karatzas, G. P.

    2014-03-01

    A modeling system for the estimation of flash flood flow velocity and sediment transport is developed in this study. The system comprises three components: (a) a modeling framework based on the hydrological model HSPF, (b) the hydrodynamic module of the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi-2-D), and (c) the advection-dispersion module of MIKE 11 as a sediment transport model. An important parameter in hydraulic modeling is the Manning's coefficient, an indicator of the channel resistance which is directly dependent on riparian vegetation changes. Riparian vegetation's effect on flood propagation parameters such as water depth (inundation), discharge, flow velocity, and sediment transport load is investigated in this study. Based on the obtained results, when the weed-cutting percentage is increased, the flood wave depth decreases while flow discharge, velocity and sediment transport load increase. The proposed modeling system is used to evaluate and illustrate the flood hazard for different riparian vegetation cutting scenarios. For the estimation of flood hazard, a combination of the flood propagation characteristics of water depth, flow velocity and sediment load was used. Next, a well-balanced selection of the most appropriate agricultural cutting practices of riparian vegetation was performed. Ultimately, the model results obtained for different agricultural cutting practice scenarios can be employed to create flood protection measures for flood-prone areas. The proposed methodology was applied to the downstream part of a small Mediterranean river basin in Crete, Greece.

  19. Determining the most suitable areas for artificial groundwater recharge via an integrated PROMETHEE II-AHP method in GIS environment (case study: Garabaygan Basin, Iran).

    PubMed

    Nasiri, Hossein; Boloorani, Ali Darvishi; Sabokbar, Hassan Ali Faraji; Jafari, Hamid Reza; Hamzeh, Mohamad; Rafii, Yusef

    2013-01-01

    Flood spreading is a suitable strategy for controlling and benefiting from floods. Selecting suitable areas for flood spreading and directing the floodwater into permeable formations are amongst the most effective strategies in flood spreading projects. Having combined geographic information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis approaches, the present study sought to locate the most suitable areas for flood spreading operation in the Garabaygan Basin of Iran. To this end, the data layers relating to the eight effective factors were prepared in GIS environment. This stage was followed by elimination of the exclusionary areas for flood spreading while determining the potentially suitable ones. Having closely examined the potentially suitable areas using the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) II and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods, the land suitability map for flood spreading was produced. The PROMETHEE II and AHP were used for ranking all the alternatives and weighting the criteria involved, respectively. The results of the study showed that most suitable areas for the artificial groundwater recharge are located in Quaternary Q(g) and Q(gsc) geologic units and in geomorphological units of pediment and Alluvial fans with slopes not exceeding 3%. Furthermore, significant correspondence between the produced map and the control areas, where the flood spreading projects were successfully performed, provided further evidence for the acceptable efficiency of the integrated PROMETHEE II-AHP method in locating suitable flood spreading areas.

  20. Crop performance and weed suppression by weed-suppressive rice cultivars in furrow- and flood-irrigated systems under reduced herbicide inputs

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Weed control in rice is challenging, particularly in light of increased resistance to herbicides in weed populations and diminishing availability of irrigation water. Certain indica rice cultivars can produce high yields and suppress weeds in conventional flood-irrigated, drill-seeded systems in the...

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