12 CFR 22.7 - Forced placement of flood insurance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Forced placement of flood insurance. 22.7... HAVING SPECIAL FLOOD HAZARDS § 22.7 Forced placement of flood insurance. If a bank, or a servicer acting... or mobile home and any personal property securing the designated loan is not covered by flood...

12 CFR 572.3 - Requirement to purchase flood insurance where available.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Requirement to purchase flood insurance where... LOANS IN AREAS HAVING SPECIAL FLOOD HAZARDS § 572.3 Requirement to purchase flood insurance where... loan unless the building or mobile home and any personal property securing the loan is covered by flood...

12 CFR 22.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... building or mobile home that is located or to be located in a special flood hazard area in which flood... Management Agency. (g) Mobile home means a structure, transportable in one or more sections, that is built on a permanent chassis and designed for use with or without a permanent foundation when attached to the...

12 CFR 760.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... building or mobile home that is located or to be located in a special flood hazard area in which flood... Management Agency. (g) Mobile home means a structure, transportable in one or more sections, that is built on a permanent chassis and designed for use with or without a permanent foundation when attached to the...

12 CFR 614.4925 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... mobile home that is located or to be located in a special flood hazard area in which flood insurance is... Agency. (e) Mobile home means a structure, transportable in one or more sections, that is built on a permanent chassis and designed for use with or without a permanent foundation when attached to the required...

Securing mobile ad hoc networks using danger theory-based artificial immune algorithm.

PubMed

Abdelhaq, Maha; Alsaqour, Raed; Abdelhaq, Shawkat

2015-01-01

A mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is a set of mobile, decentralized, and self-organizing nodes that are used in special cases, such as in the military. MANET properties render the environment of this network vulnerable to different types of attacks, including black hole, wormhole and flooding-based attacks. Flooding-based attacks are one of the most dangerous attacks that aim to consume all network resources and thus paralyze the functionality of the whole network. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate the capability of a danger theory-based artificial immune algorithm called the mobile dendritic cell algorithm (MDCA) to detect flooding-based attacks in MANETs. The MDCA applies the dendritic cell algorithm (DCA) to secure the MANET with additional improvements. The MDCA is tested and validated using Qualnet v7.1 simulation tool. This work also introduces a new simulation module for a flooding attack called the resource consumption attack (RCA) using Qualnet v7.1. The results highlight the high efficiency of the MDCA in detecting RCAs in MANETs.

Securing Mobile Ad Hoc Networks Using Danger Theory-Based Artificial Immune Algorithm

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

A mobile ad hoc network (MANET) is a set of mobile, decentralized, and self-organizing nodes that are used in special cases, such as in the military. MANET properties render the environment of this network vulnerable to different types of attacks, including black hole, wormhole and flooding-based attacks. Flooding-based attacks are one of the most dangerous attacks that aim to consume all network resources and thus paralyze the functionality of the whole network. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate the capability of a danger theory-based artificial immune algorithm called the mobile dendritic cell algorithm (MDCA) to detect flooding-based attacks in MANETs. The MDCA applies the dendritic cell algorithm (DCA) to secure the MANET with additional improvements. The MDCA is tested and validated using Qualnet v7.1 simulation tool. This work also introduces a new simulation module for a flooding attack called the resource consumption attack (RCA) using Qualnet v7.1. The results highlight the high efficiency of the MDCA in detecting RCAs in MANETs. PMID:25946001

The experimental flow to the Colorado River delta: Effects on carbon mobilization in a dry watercourse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchi, Thomas S.; Butman, David; Raymond, Peter A.; Ward, Nicholas D.; Kates, Rory J. S.; Flessa, Karl W.; Zamora, Hector; Arellano, Ana R.; Ramirez, Jorge; Rodriguez, Eliana

2017-03-01

Here we report on the effects of an experimental flood on the carbon cycling dynamics in the dry watercourse of the Colorado River in Mexico. We observed post-flood differences in the degree of decay, age, and concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), as well as dissolved CH4 and CO2 concentrations throughout the study site. Our results indicate that this flooded waterway was a limited source of CH4 and CO2 to the atmosphere during the event and that DOC age increased with time of flooding. Based on our findings, we suggest that the interplay between storage and mobilization of carbon and greenhouse gases in arid and semiarid regions is potentially sensitive to changing climate conditions, particularly hydrologic variability. Changes in the radiocarbon age of DOC throughout the flooding event suggest that organic matter (OM) that had been stored for long periods (e.g., millennial) was mobilized by the flooding event along with CO2. The OM residing in the dry riverbed that was mobilized into floodwaters had a signature reflective of degraded vascular plant OM and microbial biomass. Whether this microbial OM was living or dead, our findings support previous work in soils and natural waters showing that microbial OM can remain stable and stored in ecosystems for long time periods. As human appropriation of water resources continues to increase, the episodic drying and rewetting of once natural riverbeds and deltas may fundamentally alter the processing and storage of carbon in such systems.

Sediment mobility in fish bearing streams: the influence of floods and spawning salmon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, M. A.; Gottesfeld, A. S.; Tunnicliffe, J. F.

2002-12-01

Magnetically tagged particles were used to investigate the effects of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) on the mobility of substrate in gravel bed streams in the Stuart-Takla region of north-central British Columbia. The study reaches in Forfar and O'Ne-ell Creeks have gradients of from 0.005 to 0.019 and have a forced pool-riffle morphology. The dominant annual sediment-transporting event in the channels is the snow-melt flood events in late May or June, with lesser work usually accomplished during summer and fall storm floods. In August every year, the channel beds material is reworked by the Early Stuart salmon spawning event, as the fish excavated the streambed to deposit and bury their eggs. At each of the 5 reaches within the 2 study creeks, 250 tracers (8.5mm - 180mm) were placed in a line on the bed before and after transport events. Results were highly variable, subject to the magnitude of floods, and the returning population of salmon. Overall, the depositional pattern from nival flood events usually demonstrated a high degree of clast mobilization, long travel distances (up to 150m) and mean depths of burial up to 18cm. Storm flood events showed somewhat lower rates of mobilization, distances of travel and depths of burial. Although the fish did not move the tracers very far, their effect on the bed was generally quite pervasive: up to 100% of the clasts were mobilized, and the depth of burial was considerable (mean burial depths up to 14cm). Repeat topographic surveys of the streambed before and after transport events revealed considerable disruption of the bed surface. The geomorphic effect of fish was enhanced in the lower reaches where the hydraulic transporting capacity is somewhat less (lower stream power), the sediment calibre is finer, and fish spawning density is higher. The amount of sediment mobilized by salmonids is often on the same order of magnitude as flood events. The significant vertical mixing of sediments by the fish has important implications for the mobility of sediment in the stream. Since any armouring layer formed during high flows throughout the year are subject to the bioturbation of salmonids, the transport threshold in the creeks remains relatively low. Salmonids thus play an integral role in the annual sediment budget of the lower reaches of these creeks.

Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Gray, Clark L; Mueller, Valerie

2012-04-17

The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity.

38 CFR 36.4708 - Notice of special flood hazards and availability of Federal disaster relief assistance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Notice of special flood... of Payment, and Flood Insurance § 36.4708 Notice of special flood hazards and availability of Federal... a loan secured by a building or a mobile home located or to be located in a special flood hazard...

The Evaluation of Foam Performance and Flooding Efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keliang, Wang; Yuhao, Chen; Gang, Wang; Gen, Li

2017-12-01

ROSS-Miles and spinning drop interfacial tensionmeter are used to select suitable foam system through foam composite index (FCI) and interfacial tension (IT). The selected foam system are taken to conduct further test. The further tests are evaluating the foam system resistance to adsorption with multi-round core flooding dynamic adsorption test and evaluating the performance of foam system with four kinds of different transport distance, quantitatively analyzing the foam system effective distance after dynamic adsorption. The result shows that the foaming ability and the mobilizing ability of the foam system decrease with the increase of the round of dynamic adsorption. As the transport distance increases, the foaming ability and the mobilizing ability of the foam system decrease. This result further reveals the flooding characteristics of nitrogen foam flooding, which provides a reference for the implementation of nitrogen foam flooding technology.

Natural disasters and population mobility in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Gray, Clark L.; Mueller, Valerie

2012-01-01

The consequences of environmental change for human migration have gained increasing attention in the context of climate change and recent large-scale natural disasters, but as yet relatively few large-scale and quantitative studies have addressed this issue. We investigate the consequences of climate-related natural disasters for long-term population mobility in rural Bangladesh, a region particularly vulnerable to environmental change, using longitudinal survey data from 1,700 households spanning a 15-y period. Multivariate event history models are used to estimate the effects of flooding and crop failures on local population mobility and long-distance migration while controlling for a large set of potential confounders at various scales. The results indicate that flooding has modest effects on mobility that are most visible at moderate intensities and for women and the poor. However, crop failures unrelated to flooding have strong effects on mobility in which households that are not directly affected but live in severely affected areas are the most likely to move. These results point toward an alternate paradigm of disaster-induced mobility that recognizes the significant barriers to migration for vulnerable households as well their substantial local adaptive capacity. PMID:22474361

Voice-enabled Knowledge Engine using Flood Ontology and Natural Language Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sermet, M. Y.; Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

2015-12-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The IFIS is designed for use by general public, often people with no domain knowledge and limited general science background. To improve effective communication with such audience, we have introduced a voice-enabled knowledge engine on flood related issues in IFIS. Instead of navigating within many features and interfaces of the information system and web-based sources, the system provides dynamic computations based on a collection of built-in data, analysis, and methods. The IFIS Knowledge Engine connects to real-time stream gauges, in-house data sources, analysis and visualization tools to answer natural language questions. Our goal is the systematization of data and modeling results on flood related issues in Iowa, and to provide an interface for definitive answers to factual queries. The goal of the knowledge engine is to make all flood related knowledge in Iowa easily accessible to everyone, and support voice-enabled natural language input. We aim to integrate and curate all flood related data, implement analytical and visualization tools, and make it possible to compute answers from questions. The IFIS explicitly implements analytical methods and models, as algorithms, and curates all flood related data and resources so that all these resources are computable. The IFIS Knowledge Engine computes the answer by deriving it from its computational knowledge base. The knowledge engine processes the statement, access data warehouse, run complex database queries on the server-side and return outputs in various formats. This presentation provides an overview of IFIS Knowledge Engine, its unique information interface and functionality as an educational tool, and discusses the future plans for providing knowledge on flood related issues and resources. IFIS Knowledge Engine provides an alternative access method to these comprehensive set of tools and data resources available in IFIS. Current implementation of the system accepts free-form input and voice recognition capabilities within browser and mobile applications.

Hydrogeomorphology of the hyporheic zone: stream solute and fine particle interactions with a dynamic streambed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvey, J.W.; Drummond, J.D.; Martin, R.L.; McPhillips, L.E.; Packman, A.I.; Jerolmack, D.J.; Stonedahl, S.H.; Aubeneau, A.F.; Sawyer, A.H.; Larsen, L.G.; Tobias, C.R.

2012-01-01

Hyporheic flow in streams has typically been studied separately from geomorphic processes. We investigated interactions between bed mobility and dynamic hyporheic storage of solutes and fine particles in a sand-bed stream before, during, and after a flood. A conservatively transported solute tracer (bromide) and a fine particles tracer (5 μm latex particles), a surrogate for fine particulate organic matter, were co-injected during base flow. The tracers were differentially stored, with fine particles penetrating more shallowly in hyporheic flow and retained more efficiently due to the high rate of particle filtration in bed sediment compared to solute. Tracer injections lasted 3.5 h after which we released a small flood from an upstream dam one hour later. Due to shallower storage in the bed, fine particles were rapidly entrained during the rising limb of the flood hydrograph. Rather than being flushed by the flood, we observed that solutes were stored longer due to expansion of hyporheic flow paths beneath the temporarily enlarged bedforms. Three important timescales determined the fate of solutes and fine particles: (1) flood duration, (2) relaxation time of flood-enlarged bedforms back to base flow dimensions, and (3) resulting adjustments and lag times of hyporheic flow. Recurrent transitions between these timescales explain why we observed a peak accumulation of natural particulate organic matter between 2 and 4 cm deep in the bed, i.e., below the scour layer of mobile bedforms but above the maximum depth of particle filtration in hyporheic flow paths. Thus, physical interactions between bed mobility and hyporheic transport influence how organic matter is stored in the bed and how long it is retained, which affects decomposition rate and metabolism of this southeastern Coastal Plain stream. In summary we found that dynamic interactions between hyporheic flow, bed mobility, and flow variation had strong but differential influences on base flow retention and flood mobilization of solutes and fine particulates. These hydrogeomorphic relationships have implications for microbial respiration of organic matter, carbon and nutrient cycling, and fate of contaminants in streams.

Control of arsenic mobilization in paddy soils by manganese and iron oxides.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaowei; Chen, Chuan; Wang, Peng; Kretzschmar, Ruben; Zhao, Fang-Jie

2017-12-01

Reductive mobilization of arsenic (As) in paddy soils under flooded conditions is an important reason for the relatively high accumulation of As in rice, posing a risk to food safety and human health. The extent of As mobilization varies widely among paddy soils, but the reasons are not well understood. In this study, we investigated As mobilization in six As-contaminated paddy soils (total As ranging from 73 to 122 mg kg -1 ) in flooded incubation and pot experiments. Arsenic speciation in the solution and solid phases were determined. The magnitude of As mobilization into the porewater varied by > 100 times among the six soils. Porewater As concentration correlated closely with the concentration of oxalate-extractable As, suggesting that As associated with amorphous iron (oxyhydr)oxides represents the potentially mobilizable pool of As under flooded conditions. Soil containing a high level of manganese oxides showed the lowest As mobilization, likely because Mn oxides retard As mobilization by slowing down the drop of redox potential upon soil flooding and maintaining a higher arsenate to arsenite ratio in the solid and solution phases. Additions of a synthetic Mn oxide (hausmannite) to two paddy soils increased arsenite oxidation, decreased As mobilization into the porewater and decreased As concentrations in rice grain and straw. Consistent with previous studies using simplified model systems or pure mineral phases, the present study shows that Mn oxides and amorphous Fe (oxyhydr)oxides are important factors controlling reductive As mobilization in As-contaminated paddy soils. In addition, this study also suggests a potential mitigation strategy using exogenous Mn oxides to decrease As uptake by rice in paddy soils containing low levels of indigenous Mn oxides, although further work is needed to verify its efficacy and possible secondary effects under field conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mobility control experience in the Joffre Viking miscible CO[sub 2] flood

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luhning, R.W.; Stephenson, D.J.; Graham, A.G.

1993-08-01

This paper discusses mobility control in the Joffre Viking field miscible CO[sub 2] flood. Since 1984, three injection strategies have been tried: water-alternating-CO[sub 2] (WACO[sub 2]), continuous CO[sub 2], and simultaneous CO[sub 2] and water. The studies showed that simultaneous injection results in the best CO[sub 2] conformance. CO[sub 2]-foam injection has also been investigated.

Hydrodynamics of flood impact on urban mobility: critical conditions for vehicles carry-off

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Alcèrreca Huerta, Juan Carlos; Oumeraci, Hocine; Castelli, Fabio

2015-04-01

The street networks are a critical infrastructure during flood events in urban areas, on one hand because they allow the flood propagation in the urban environment, on the other hand because they ensure capillary rescue activities during and after the event. At present, the vehicle instability during an urban flood is recognized as being one of the most exacerbating factor for flood risk. In fact roads can be clogged by vehicles debris, which is also particularly dangerous for people's safety. In this work the incipient motion conditions of flooded vehicles are investigated and discussed. A mobility parameter θV is introduced as a function of the Froude number of the flow. The flow for different regimes past a specific vehicle geometry is modelled using a 3-dimensional numerical approach. The results of the numerical model clarify the contribution of drag and lift forces to the incipient motion conditions. The numerical results are compared with recent experimental data found in literature on partially submerged scale 1:18 vehicle models. The estimated force coefficients and instability conditions may provide a useful tool for flood risk assessment and management in urban areas.

Topographic data of selected areas along the Alabama River near Montgomery, Alabama, collected using mobile terrestrial light detection and ranging (T-LiDAR) technology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimbrow, D.R.

2014-01-01

Topographic data at selected areas within the Alabama River flood plain near Montgomery, Alabama, were collected using a truck-mounted mobile terrestrial light detection and ranging system. These data were collected for inclusion in a flood inundation model developed by the National Weather Service in Birmingham, Alabama. Data are presented as ArcGIS point shapefiles with the extension .shp.

Effects of an Extreme Flood on Trace Elements in River Water-From Urban Stream to Major River Basin.

PubMed

Barber, Larry B; Paschke, Suzanne S; Battaglin, William A; Douville, Chris; Fitzgerald, Kevin C; Keefe, Steffanie H; Roth, David A; Vajda, Alan M

2017-09-19

Major floods adversely affect water quality through surface runoff, groundwater discharge, and damage to municipal water infrastructure. Despite their importance, it can be difficult to assess the effects of floods on streamwater chemistry because of challenges collecting samples and the absence of baseline data. This study documents water quality during the September 2013 extreme flood in the South Platte River, Colorado, USA. Weekly time-series water samples were collected from 3 urban source waters (municipal tap water, streamwater, and wastewater treatment facility effluent) under normal-flow and flood conditions. In addition, water samples were collected during the flood at 5 locations along the South Platte River and from 7 tributaries along the Colorado Front Range. Samples were analyzed for 54 major and trace elements. Specific chemical tracers, representing different natural and anthropogenic sources and geochemical behaviors, were used to compare streamwater composition before and during the flood. The results differentiate hydrological processes that affected water quality: (1) in the upper watershed, runoff diluted most dissolved constituents, (2) in the urban corridor and lower watershed, runoff mobilized soluble constituents accumulated on the landscape and contributed to stream loading, and (3) flood-induced groundwater discharge mobilized soluble constituents stored in the vadose zone.

Effects of an extreme flood on trace elements in river water—From urban stream to major river basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barber, Larry B.; Paschke, Suzanne; Battaglin, William A.; Douville, Chris; Fitzgerald, Kevin C.; Keefe, Steffanie H.; Roth, David A.; Vajda, Alan M.

2017-01-01

Major floods adversely affect water quality through surface runoff, groundwater discharge, and damage to municipal water infrastructure. Despite their importance, it can be difficult to assess the effects of floods on streamwater chemistry because of challenges collecting samples and the absence of baseline data. This study documents water quality during the September 2013 extreme flood in the South Platte River, Colorado, USA. Weekly time-series water samples were collected from 3 urban source waters (municipal tap water, streamwater, and wastewater treatment facility effluent) under normal-flow and flood conditions. In addition, water samples were collected during the flood at 5 locations along the South Platte River and from 7 tributaries along the Colorado Front Range. Samples were analyzed for 54 major and trace elements. Specific chemical tracers, representing different natural and anthropogenic sources and geochemical behaviors, were used to compare streamwater composition before and during the flood. The results differentiate hydrological processes that affected water quality: (1) in the upper watershed, runoff diluted most dissolved constituents, (2) in the urban corridor and lower watershed, runoff mobilized soluble constituents accumulated on the landscape and contributed to stream loading, and (3) flood-induced groundwater discharge mobilized soluble constituents stored in the vadose zone.

Mercury transformation and release differs with depth and time in a contaminated riparian soil during simulated flooding

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poulin, Brett; Aiken, George R.; Nagy, Kathryn L.; Manceau, Alain; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Ryan, Joseph N.

2016-01-01

Riparian soils are an important environment in the transport of mercury in rivers and wetlands, but the biogeochemical factors controlling mercury dynamics under transient redox conditions in these soils are not well understood. Mercury release and transformations in the Oa and underlying A horizons of a contaminated riparian soil were characterized in microcosms and an intact soil core under saturation conditions. Pore water dynamics of total mercury (HgT), methylmercury (MeHg), and dissolved gaseous mercury (Hg0(aq)) along with selected anions, major elements, and trace metals were characterized across redox transitions during 36 d of flooding in microcosms. Next, HgT dynamics were characterized over successive flooding (17 d), drying (28 d), and flooding (36 d) periods in the intact core. The observed mercury dynamics exhibit depth and temporal variability. At the onset of flooding in microcosms (1–3 d), mercury in the Oa horizon soil, present as a combination of ionic mercury (Hg(II)) bound to thiol groups in the soil organic matter (SOM) and nanoparticulate metacinnabar (b-HgS), was mobilized with organic matter of high molecular weight. Subsequently, under anoxic conditions, pore water HgT declined coincident with sulfate (3–11 d) and the proportion of nanoparticulate b-HgS in the Oa horizon soil increased slightly. Redox oscillations in the intact Oa horizon soil exhausted the mobile mercury pool associated with organic matter. In contrast, mercury in the A horizon soil, present predominantly as nanoparticulate b-HgS, was mobilized primarily as Hg0(aq) under strongly reducing conditions (5–18 d). The concentration of Hg0(aq) under dark reducing conditions correlated positively with byproducts of dissimilatory metal reduction (P(Fe,Mn)). Mercury dynamics in intact A horizon soil were consistent over two periods of flooding, indicating that nanoparticulate b-HgS was an accessible pool of mobile mercury over recurrent reducing conditions. The concentration of MeHg increased with flooding time in both the Oa and A horizon pore waters. Temporal changes in pore water constituents (iron, manganese, sulfate, inorganic carbon, headspace methane) all implicate microbial control of redox transitions. The mobilization of mercury in multiple forms, including HgT associated with organic matter, MeHg, and Hg0(aq), to pore waters during periodic soil flooding may contribute to mercury releases to adjacent surface waters and the recycling of the legacy mercury to the atmosphere.

Selenium mobilization during a flood experiment in a contaminated wetland: Stewart Lake Waterfowl Management Area, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naftz, D.L.; Yahnke, J.; Miller, J.; Noyes, S.

2005-01-01

Constructed and natural wetlands can accumulate elevated levels of Se; however, few data are available on cost-effective methods for remobilization and removal of Se from these areas. A field experiment was conducted to assess the effectiveness of flooding on the removal of Se from dry surface sediments. The 83-m2 flood-experiment plot contained 10 monitoring wells, a water-quality minimonitor (continuous measurement of pH, specific conductance, water temperature, and dissolved O2), a down-hole Br electrode, and 2 pressure transducers. Flooding was initiated on August 27, 2002, and a Br tracer was added to water delivered through a pipeline to the flood plot during the first 1.2 h. Standing water depth in the flood plot was maintained at 0.3 m through September 1, 2002. The Br tracer data indicate a dual porosity system that includes fracture (mud cracks) and matrix flow components. Mean vertical water velocities for the matrix flow component were estimated to range from 0.002 to 0.012 m/h. Dissolved (less than 0.45 ??m) Se increased from pre-flood concentrations of less than 10 ??g/L to greater than 800 ??g/L during flooding in samples from deep (2.0 m below land surface) ground water. Selenium concentrations exceeded 5500 ??g/L in samples from shallow (0.8 m below land surface) ground water. Ratios of Se to Br in water samples indicate that Se moved conservatively during the experiment and was derived from leaching of near-surface sediments. Cumulative Se flux to the deep ground water during the experiment ranged from 9.0 to 170 mg/m2. Pre- and post-flood surface soil sampling indicated a mean Se flux of 720 mg/m2 through the top 15 cm of soil. Ground-water samples collected 8 months after termination of the flood experiment contained Se concentrations of less than 20 ??g/L. The minimonitor data indicate a rapid return to chemically reducing conditions in the deep ground water, limiting the mobility of the Se dissolved in the water pulse introduced during the flood experiment. Ratios of Se to Br in deep ground-water samples collected 8 months after the experiment confirmed the removal of Se from the aqueous phase. Based on the median Se flux rate estimated during the experiment of 0.65 mg/h/m2 (n = 52), 7 flooding cycles would be required to meet the 4 ??g/g remediation goal in surface soils from the SLWMA wetland.

Information Communication using Knowledge Engine on Flood Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

2012-04-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to and visualization of flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, and other flood-related data for communities in Iowa. The system is designed for use by general public, often people with no domain knowledge and poor general science background. To improve effective communication with such audience, we have introduced a new way in IFIS to get information on flood related issues - instead of by navigating within hundreds of features and interfaces of the information system and web-based sources-- by providing dynamic computations based on a collection of built-in data, analysis, and methods. The IFIS Knowledge Engine connects to distributed sources of real-time stream gauges, and in-house data sources, analysis and visualization tools to answer questions grouped into several categories. Users will be able to provide input based on the query within the categories of rainfall, flood conditions, forecast, inundation maps, flood risk and data sensors. Our goal is the systematization of knowledge on flood related issues, and to provide a single source for definitive answers to factual queries. Long-term goal of this knowledge engine is to make all flood related knowledge easily accessible to everyone, and provide educational geoinformatics tool. The future implementation of the system will be able to accept free-form input and voice recognition capabilities within browser and mobile applications. We intend to deliver increasing capabilities for the system over the coming releases of IFIS. This presentation provides an overview of our Knowledge Engine, its unique information interface and functionality as an educational tool, and discusses the future plans for providing knowledge on flood related issues and resources.

Adaptation to flooding during emergence and seedling growth in rice and weeds, and implications for crop establishment.

PubMed

Ismail, Abdelbagi M; Johnson, David E; Ella, Evangelina S; Vergara, Georgina V; Baltazar, Aurora M

2012-01-01

Direct seeding of rice is being adopted in rainfed and irrigated lowland ecosystems because it reduces labour costs in addition to other benefits. However, early flooding due to uneven fields or rainfall slows down seed germination and hinders crop establishment. Conversely, early flooding helps suppress weeds and reduces the costs of manual weeding and/or dependence on herbicides; however, numerous weed species are adapted to lowlands and present challenges for the use of flooding to control weeds. Advancing knowledge on the mechanisms of tolerance of flooding during germination and early growth in rice and weeds could facilitate the development of improved rice varieties and effective weed management practices for direct-seeded rice. Rice genotypes with a greater ability to germinate and establish in flooded soils were identified, providing opportunities to develop varieties suitable for direct seeding in flooded soils. Tolerance of flooding in these genotypes was mostly attributed to traits associated with better ability to mobilize stored carbohydrates and anaerobic metabolism. Limited studies were undertaken in weeds associated with lowland rice systems. Remaining studies compared rice and weeds and related weed species such as Echinochloa crus-galli and E. colona or compared ecotypes of the same species of Cyperus rotundus adapted to either aerobic or flooded soils. Tolerant weeds and rice genotypes mostly developed similar adaptive traits that allow them to establish in flooded fields, including the ability to germinate and elongate faster under hypoxia, mobilize stored starch reserves and generate energy through fermentation pathways. Remarkably, some weeds developed additional traits such as larger storage tubers that enlarge further in deeper flooded soils (C. rotundus). Unravelling the mechanisms involved in adaptation to flooding will help design management options that will allow tolerant rice genotypes to adequately establish in flooded soils while simultaneously suppressing weeds.

MSWT-01, flood disaster water treatment solution from common ideas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ananto, Gamawan; Setiawan, Albertus B.; Z, Darman M.

2013-06-01

Indonesia has a lot of potential flood disaster places with clean water problems faced. Various solution programs always initiated by Government, companies CSR, and people sporadical actions to provide clean water; with their advantages and disadvantages respectively. One solution is easy to operate for instance, but didn't provide adequate capacity, whereas the other had ideal performance but more costly. This situation inspired to develop a water treatment machine that could be an alternative favor. There are many methods could be choosed; whether in simple, middle or high technology, depends on water source input and output result quality. MSWT, Mobile Surface Water Treatment, is an idea for raw water in flood area, basically made for 1m3 per hour. This water treatment design adopted from combined existing technologies and related literatures. Using common ideas, the highlight is how to make such modular process put in compact design elegantly, and would be equipped with mobile feature due to make easier in operational. Through prototype level experiment trials, the machine is capable for producing clean water that suitable for sanitation and cooking/drinking purposes although using contaminated water input source. From the investment point of view, such machine could be also treated as an asset that will be used from time to time when needed, instead of made for project approach only.

Improvement of suspended sediment concentration estimation for the Yarlung Zangbo river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, C.; Zhang, F.

2017-12-01

Suspended sediment load of a river represents integrated results of soil erosion, ecosystem variation and landform change occurring within basin over a specified period. Accurate estimation of suspended sediment concentration is important for calculating suspended sediment load, therefore is helpful for evaluating the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors on earth system processes under the background of global climate change. However, long-term observation of suspended sediment concentration usually very difficult in harsh condition areas e.g. rivers on the Tibet Plateau. This study proposed two sediment rating curve subdivision methods, the flood rank method and suspended sediment concentration stages method, to improve the estimations of daily suspended sediment concentration of the Yarlung Zangbo river during 2007 to 2009. The flood rank method, hypothesized that the higher water flow with larger erosive power can mobilize sediment sources not available during lower flows, suitable for application where sediments were mainly transported by first few flood events. The suspended sediment concentration stages method, assumed that precipitation is the dominating driving force of sediment erosion and transport processes during the flooding periods, suitable for application where soil erosion was closely related to precipitation events. Compared to traditional sediment rating curve and subdivision methods, results showed that the proposed methods can improve suspended sediment concentration and subsequent suspended sediment load estimations in the middle reach of the Yarlung Zangbo river with higher coefficients of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients (NSE), and yielded smaller bias (BIAS) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE). This study can provide guidelines for regional ecological and environmental management.

Effects of Carbon in Flooded Paddy Soils: Implications for Microbial Activity and Arsenic Mobilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avancha, S.; Boye, K.

2014-12-01

In the Mekong delta in Cambodia, naturally occurring arsenic (originating from erosion in the Himalaya Mountains) in paddy soils is mobilized during the seasonal flooding. As a consequence, rice grown on the flooded soils may take up arsenic and expose people eating the rice to this carcinogenic substance. Microbial activity will enhance or decrease the mobilization of arsenic depending on their metabolic pathways. Among the microbes naturally residing in the soil are denitrifying bacteria, sulfate reducers, metal reducers (Fe, Mn), arsenic reducers, methanogens, and fermenters, whose activity varies based on the presence of oxygen. The purpose of the experiment was to assess how different amendments affect the microbial activity and the arsenic mobilization during the transition from aerobic to anaerobic metabolism after flooding of naturally contaminated Cambodian soil. In a batch experiment, we investigated how the relative metabolic rate of naturally occurring microbes could vary with different types of organic carbon. The experiment was designed to measure the effects of various sources of carbon (dried rice straw, charred rice straw, manure, and glucose) on the microbial activity and arsenic release in an arsenic-contaminated paddy soil from Cambodia under flooded conditions. All amendments were added based on the carbon content in order to add 0.036 g of carbon per vial. The soil was flooded with a 10mM TRIS buffer solution at pH 7.04 in airtight 25mL serum vials and kept at 25 °C. We prepared 14 replicates per treatment to sample both gas and solution. On each sampling point, the solution replicates were sampled destructively. The gas replicates continued on and were sampled for both gas and solution on the final day of the experiment. We measured pH, total arsenic, methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide at 8 hours, 1.5 days, 3.33 days, and 6.33 days from the start of the experiment.

Impact of S fertilizers on pore-water Cu dynamics and transformation in a contaminated paddy soil with various flooding periods.

PubMed

Yang, Jianjun; Zhu, Shenhai; Zheng, Cuiqing; Sun, Lijuan; Liu, Jin; Shi, Jiyan

2015-04-09

Impact of S fertilization on Cu mobility and transformation in contaminated paddy soils has been little reported. In this study, we investigated the dynamics and transformation of dissolved and colloidal Cu in the pore water of a contaminated paddy soil after applying ammonium sulphate (AS) and sulfur coated urea (SCU) with various flooding periods (1, 7 and 60 days). Compared to the control soil, the AS-treated soil released more colloidal and dissolved Cu over the entire flooding period, while the SCU-treated soil had lower colloidal Cu after 7-day flooding but higher colloidal and dissolved Cu after 60-day flooding. Microscopic X-ray fluorescence (μ-XRF) analysis found a close relationship between Fe and Cu distribution on soil colloids after 60-day flooding, implying the formation of colloidal Fe/Cu sulphide coprecipitates. Cu K-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy directly revealed the transformation of outer-sphere complexed Cu(II) species to Cu(II) sulphide and reduced Cu2O in the colloids of S-treated soils after 60-day flooding. These results demonstrated the great influence of S fertilization on pore-water Cu mobility by forming Cu sulphide under flooding conditions, which facilitated our understanding and control of Cu loss in contaminated paddy soils under S fertilization. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flood plain and channel dynamics of the Quinault and Queets Rivers, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connor, J. E.; Jones, M.A.; Haluska, T.L.

2003-01-01

Observations from this study and previous studies on the Queets River show that channel and flood-plain dynamics and morphology are affected by interactions between flow, sediment, and standing and entrained wood, some of which likely involve time frames similar to 200–500-year flood-plain half-lives. On the upper Quinault River and Queets River, log jams promote bar growth and consequent channel shifting, short-distance avulsions, and meander cutoffs, resulting in mobile and wide active channels. On the lower Quinault River, large portions of the channel are stable and flow within vegetated flood plains. However, locally, channel-spanning log jams have caused channel avulsions within reaches that have been subsequently mobile for several decades. In all three reaches, log jams appear to be areas of conifer germination and growth that may later further influence channel and flood-plain conditions on long time scales by forming flood-plain areas resistant to channel migration and by providing key members of future log jams. Appreciation of these processes and dynamics and associated temporal and spatial scales is necessary to formulate effective long-term approaches to managing fluvial ecosystems in forested environments.

46 CFR 174.080 - Flooding on self-elevating and surface type units.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... STABILITY SPECIAL RULES PERTAINING TO SPECIFIC VESSEL TYPES Special Rules Pertaining to Mobile Offshore Drilling Units § 174.080 Flooding on self-elevating and surface type units. (a) On a surface type unit or...

46 CFR 174.080 - Flooding on self-elevating and surface type units.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... STABILITY SPECIAL RULES PERTAINING TO SPECIFIC VESSEL TYPES Special Rules Pertaining to Mobile Offshore Drilling Units § 174.080 Flooding on self-elevating and surface type units. (a) On a surface type unit or...

Experimental modelling of outburst flood - bed interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrivick, J. L.; Xie, Z.; Sleigh, A.; Hubbard, M.

2009-04-01

Outburst floods are a sudden release and advancing wave of water and sediment, with a peak discharge that is often several orders of magnitude greater than perennial flows. Common outburst floods from natural sources include those from glacial and moraine-impounded lakes, freshwater dyke and levee bursts, volcanic debris dams, landslides, avalanches, coastal bay-bars, and those from tree or vegetation dams. Outburst flood hazards are regularly incorporated into risk assessments for urban, coastal and mountainous areas, for example. Outburst flood hazards are primarily due to direct impacts, caused by a frontal surge wave, from debris within a flow body, and from the mass and consistency of the flows. A number of secondary impacts also pose hazards, including widespread deposition of sediment and blocked tributary streams. It is rapid landscape change, which is achieved the mobilization and redistribution of sediment that causes one of the greatest hazards due to outburst floods. The aim of this project is therefore to parameterise hydrodynamic - sedimentary interactions in experimental outburst floods. Specifically, this project applies laboratory flume modelling, which offers a hitherto untapped opportunity for examining complex interactions between water and sediment within outburst floods. The experimental set-up is of a tradition lock-gate design with a straight 4 m long tank. Hydraulics are scaled at 1:20 froude scale and the following controls on frontal wave flow-bed interactions and hence on rapid landscape change are being investigated: 1. Pre-existing mobile sediment effects, fixed bed roughness effects, sediment concentration effects, mobile bed effects. An emphasis is being maintained on examining the downstream temporal and spatial change in physical character of the water / sediment frontal wave. Facilities are state-of-the-art with a fully-automated laser bed-profiler to measure bed elevation after a run, Seatek arrays to measure transient flow depths, 0.5 Hz Ultrasonic Velocimeter Profiling to measure within-flow velocities, and Ultrasonic High-Concentration Meter (UHCM) to measure sediment concentrations, for example, all at increments of space and time. These instruments can only be used without a mobile sediment bed and some could be rendered as a source of error because they are intrusive to the flow. Digital video and automated still photography is therefore also important for recording hydraulic and bedform changes through time in flows with freely-moving sediment. This paper will report initial results.

Effects of flooding on phosphorus and iron mobilization in highly weathered soils: Short-term effects and mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maranguit, Deejay

2017-04-01

The strong affinity of phosphorus (P) to iron (Fe) oxides and hydroxides in highly weathered tropical soils limits P availability and therefore plant productivity. In flooded soils, however, P fixed by Fe oxides and hydroxides can be released and transformed to a more available form because of Fe3+ reduction to Fe2+. These P dynamics in flooded soils are well documented for rice paddies. Such effects are much less studied in other land-use types under the influence of seasonal flooding, especially in the tropics during heavy monsoon rains. The aim of this study was to investigate the mobilization of P during flooding leading to anaerobic conditions in topsoil and subsoil horizons depending on land-use type. Samples were collected in highly weathered soils from four replicate sites under natural rainforest, jungle rubber, rubber and oil palm plantations in Sumatra, Indonesia. Topsoil and subsoil were taken to ensure a wide range of soil organic matter (SOM) and P contents. Soils were incubated under anaerobic, flooded conditions at 30 ± 1 oC for 60 days. Our results confirmed the hypothesis that soil flooding mobilizes P and increases P availability. Two distinct and opposite phases, however, were observed upon flooding. During the first three weeks of flooding, the dissolved P (DP) concentration peaked, simultaneously with a peak of dissolved Fe2+ (DFe2+) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the soil solution. After three weeks, P availability in soils decreased, although Fe-P and available P did not reach initial, pre-flooding levels. Accordingly, Fe dissolution and P mobilization were reversible processes. Furthermore, land-use type influenced the impacts of flooding on P and Fe forms mainly in the topsoil, where P dissolution and availability were generally higher under forest and, to a lesser extent, under jungle rubber. A positive correlation between DOC and DFe2+ (R2 = 0.42) in topsoil indicates that the intensity of microbially-mediated Fe3+ reduction is limited by the amount of available carbon (C) as an energy source for microorganisms. Moreover, microbial mineralization of organic P from SOM also increases P availability, and this process requires available C. This interpretation was supported by the strong correlation (R2 = 0.58) between available P and DOC, as well as between DP and DOC (R2 = 0.56) in topsoil. The increasing soil solution pH in topsoil and subsoil after flooding of all land-use types may also influence the P release over time. In summary, the increase of available P and DP during flooding is due to three main mechanisms: (1) P release via the microbially-mediated reductive dissolution of Fe3+ oxides; (2) P release during SOM mineralization and (3) solubility of Fe phosphate due to increasing pH. These mechanisms are relevant not only in riparian areas, where flooding occurs, but also in well-drained soil that is partly waterlogged after regular heavy rainfalls during the wet season. Likewise, the P cycle turnover is faster in compacted, often anaerobic plantation soils. Here, more P is pumped by the vegetation and then removed from plantations due to yield export.

Improved Efficiency of Miscible CO(2) Floods and Enhanced Prospects for CO(2) Flooding Heterogeneous Reservoirs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grigg, R.B.; Schechter, D.S.

The overall goal of this project was to improve the efficiency of miscible C0{sub 2} floods and enhance the prospects for flooding heterogeneous reservoirs. This objective was accomplished through experimental and modeling research in three task areas: (1) foams for selective mobility control in heterogeneous reservoirs,( 2) reduction of the amount of C0{sub 2} required in C0{sub 2} floods, and (3) low IFT processe and the possibility of C0{sub 2} flooding in fractured reservoirs. This report provides results from the three-year project for each of the three task areas.

Improving the quantification of flash flood hydrographs and reducing their uncertainty using noncontact streamgauging methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branger, Flora; Dramais, Guillaume; Horner, Ivan; Le Boursicaud, Raphaël; Le Coz, Jérôme; Renard, Benjamin

2015-04-01

Continuous river discharge data are crucial for the study and management of floods. In most river discharge monitoring networks, these data are obtained at gauging stations, where the stage-discharge relation is modelled with a rating curve to derive discharge from the measurement of water level in the river. Rating curves are usually established using individual ratings (or gaugings). However, using traditional gauging methods during flash floods is challenging for many reasons including hazardous flow conditions (for both equipment and people), short duration of the flood events, transient flows during the time needed to perform the gauging, etc. The lack of gaugings implies that the rating curve is often extrapolated well beyond the gauged range for the highest floods, inducing large uncertainties in the computed discharges. We deployed two remote techniques for gauging floods and improving stage-discharge relations for high flow conditions at several hydrometric stations throughout the Ardèche river catchment in France : (1) permanent video-recording stations enabling the implementation of the image analysis LS-PIV technique (Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry) ; (2) and mobile gaugings using handheld Surface Velocity Radars (SVR). These gaugings were used to estimate the rating curve and its uncertainty using the Bayesian method BaRatin (Le Coz et al., 2014). Importantly, this method explicitly accounts for the uncertainty of individual gaugings, which is especially relevant for remote gaugings since their uncertainty is generally much higher than that of standard intrusive gauging methods. Then, the uncertainty of streamflow records was derived by combining the uncertainty of the rating curve and the uncertainty of stage records. We assessed the impact of these methodological developments for peak flow estimation and for flood descriptors at various time steps. The combination of field measurement innovation and statistical developments allows efficiently quantifying and reducing the uncertainties of flood peak estimates and flood descriptors at gauging stations. The noncontact streamgauging techniques used in our field campaign strategy have complementary interests. Permanent LSPIV stations, once installed and calibrated, can monitor floods automatically and perform many gaugings during a single event, thus documenting the rise, peak and recession of floods. SVR gaugings are more "one shot" gaugings but can be deployed quickly and at minimal cost over a large territory. Both of these noncontact techniques contribute to a significant reduction of uncertainty on peak hydrographs and flood descriptors at different time steps for a given catchment. Le Coz, J.; Renard, B.; Bonnifait, L.; Branger, F. & Le Boursicaud, R. (2014), 'Combining hydraulic knowledge and uncertain gaugings in the estimation of hydrometric rating curves: A Bayesian approach', Journal of Hydrology 509, 573-587.

Assessment of commuters' daily exposure to flash flooding over the roads of the Gard region, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debionne, Samuel; Ruin, Isabelle; Shabou, Saif; Lutoff, Céline; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2016-10-01

Flash floods are responsible for a majority of natural disaster fatalities in the USA and Europe and most of them are vehicle-related. If human exposure to flood is generally assessed through the number of inhabitants per buildings located in flood prone zone, it is clear that this number varies dramatically throughout the day as people move from place to place to follow their daily program of activities. Knowing the number of motorists exposed on flood prone road sections or the factors determining their exposure would allow providing a more realistic evaluation of the degree of exposure. In order to bridge this gap and provide emergency managers with methods to assess the risk level for motorists, this paper describes two methods, a simple rough-and-ready estimate and a traffic attribution method, and applies both of them on datasets of the Gard département, an administrative region of Southern France with about 700 000 inhabitants over 5875 km2. The first method to obtain an overall estimation of motorists flood exposure is to combine (i) the regional density of roads and rivers to derive a count of potential road cuts and (ii) the average daily kilometers driven by commuters of the study area to derive the number of people passing these potential cuts. If useful as a first approximation, this method fails to capture the spatial heterogeneities introduced by the geometry of river and road networks and the distribution of commuters' itineraries. To address this point, this paper (i) uses a pre-established detailed identification of road cuts (Naulin et al., 2013) and (ii) applies a well-known traffic attribution method to existing and freely available census datasets. Both methods indicate that commuters' exposure is much larger than the number of commuters itself, illustrating the risk amplification effect of mobility. Comparing the results from both methods shows that (i) the road network geometry plays a significant role in reducing the risk of river-road dangerous intersections and (ii) not all commuters are equally exposed. Evidently commuters who have longer routes are more exposed, but residents of rural municipalities as well as professionals with highly qualified jobs are also more exposed. Finally, these exposure assessment methods applied to the Gard area allows locating road sections where commuters' exposure to flood is high. It also sets the first step toward the implementation of a modeling platform able to combine the estimation of daily travel patterns exposure and behavioral response of motorists to road flooding, a critical input for emergency services and services in charge of the management of road networks in flash flood prone areas.

Possibilities of surface waters monitoring at mining areas using UAV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lisiecka, Ewa; Motyka, Barbara; Motyka, Zbigniew; Pierzchała, Łukasz; Szade, Adam

2018-04-01

The selected, remote measurement methods are discussed, useful for determining surface water properties using mobile unmanned aerial platforms (UAV). The possibilities of using this type of solutions in the scope of measuring spatial, physicochemical and biological parameters of both natural and anthropogenic water reservoirs, including flood polders, water-filled pits, settling tanks and mining sinks were analyzed. Methods of remote identification of the process of overgrowing this type of ecosystems with water and coastal plant formations have also been proposed.

Adaptation to flooding during emergence and seedling growth in rice and weeds, and implications for crop establishment

PubMed Central

Ismail, Abdelbagi M.; Johnson, David E.; Ella, Evangelina S.; Vergara, Georgina V.; Baltazar, Aurora M.

2012-01-01

Background and aims Direct seeding of rice is being adopted in rainfed and irrigated lowland ecosystems because it reduces labour costs in addition to other benefits. However, early flooding due to uneven fields or rainfall slows down seed germination and hinders crop establishment. Conversely, early flooding helps suppress weeds and reduces the costs of manual weeding and/or dependence on herbicides; however, numerous weed species are adapted to lowlands and present challenges for the use of flooding to control weeds. Advancing knowledge on the mechanisms of tolerance of flooding during germination and early growth in rice and weeds could facilitate the development of improved rice varieties and effective weed management practices for direct-seeded rice. Principal results Rice genotypes with a greater ability to germinate and establish in flooded soils were identified, providing opportunities to develop varieties suitable for direct seeding in flooded soils. Tolerance of flooding in these genotypes was mostly attributed to traits associated with better ability to mobilize stored carbohydrates and anaerobic metabolism. Limited studies were undertaken in weeds associated with lowland rice systems. Remaining studies compared rice and weeds and related weed species such as Echinochloa crus-galli and E. colona or compared ecotypes of the same species of Cyperus rotundus adapted to either aerobic or flooded soils. Conclusions Tolerant weeds and rice genotypes mostly developed similar adaptive traits that allow them to establish in flooded fields, including the ability to germinate and elongate faster under hypoxia, mobilize stored starch reserves and generate energy through fermentation pathways. Remarkably, some weeds developed additional traits such as larger storage tubers that enlarge further in deeper flooded soils (C. rotundus). Unravelling the mechanisms involved in adaptation to flooding will help design management options that will allow tolerant rice genotypes to adequately establish in flooded soils while simultaneously suppressing weeds. PMID:22957137

Geographical Information Analysis of Tsunami Flooded Area by the Great East Japan Earthquake Using Mobile Mapping System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koarai, M.; Okatani, T.; Nakano, T.; Nakamura, T.; Hasegawa, M.

2012-07-01

The great earthquake occurred in Tohoku District, Japan on 11th March, 2011. This earthquake is named "the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake", and the damage by this earthquake is named "the Great East Japan Earthquake". About twenty thousand people were killed or lost by the tsunami of this earthquake, and large area was flooded and a large number of buildings were destroyed by the tsunami. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI) has provided the data of tsunami flooded area interpreted from aerial photos taken just after the great earthquake. This is fundamental data of tsunami damage and very useful for consideration of reconstruction planning of tsunami damaged area. The authors analyzed the relationship among land use, landform classification, DEMs data flooded depth of the tsunami flooded area by the Great East Japan Earthquake in the Sendai Plain using GIS. Land use data is 100 meter grid data of National Land Information Data by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism (MLIT). Landform classification data is vector data of Land Condition Map produced by GSI. DEMs data are 5 meters grid data measured with LiDAR by GSI after earthquake. Especially, the authors noticed the relationship between tsunami hazard damage and flooded depth. The authors divided tsunami damage into three categories by interpreting aerial photos; first is the completely destroyed area where almost wooden buildings were lost, second is the heavily damaged area where a large number of houses were destroyed by the tsunami, and third is the flooded only area where houses were less destroyed. The flooded depth was measured by photogrammetric method using digital image taken by Mobile Mapping System (MMS). The result of these geographic analyses show the distribution of tsunami damage level is as follows: 1) The completely destroyed area was located within 1km area from the coastline, flooded depth of this area is over 4m, and no relationship between damaged area and landform classification. 2) The heavily damaged area was observed up to 3 or 4km from the coastline. Flooded depth of this area is over 1.5m, and there is a good relationship between damaged area and height of DEMs. 3) The flood only area was observed up to 4 or 5km from the coastline. Flooded depth of this area was less than 1.5m, and there is a good relationship between damaged area and landform. For instance, a certain area in valley plain or flooded plain was not affected by the tsunami, even though an area with almost the same height in coastal plain or delta was flooded. These results mean that it is important for tsunami disaster management to consider not only DEMs but also landform classification.

46 CFR 174.075 - Compartments assumed flooded: general.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Compartments assumed flooded: general. 174.075 Section 174.075 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SUBDIVISION AND STABILITY SPECIAL RULES PERTAINING TO SPECIFIC VESSEL TYPES Special Rules Pertaining to Mobile Offshore Drilling...

46 CFR 174.075 - Compartments assumed flooded: general.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Compartments assumed flooded: general. 174.075 Section 174.075 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SUBDIVISION AND STABILITY SPECIAL RULES PERTAINING TO SPECIFIC VESSEL TYPES Special Rules Pertaining to Mobile Offshore Drilling...

New developments at the Flood Forecasting Centre: operational flood risk assessment and guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilling, Charlie

2017-04-01

The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) is a partnership between the UK Met Office, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales. The FFC was established in 2009 to provide an overview of flood risk across England and Wales and to provide flood guidance services primarily for the emergency response community. The FFC provides forecasts for all natural sources of flooding, these being fluvial, surface water, coastal and groundwater. This involves an assessment of possible hydrometeorological events and their impacts over the next five days. During times of heightened flood risk, the close communication between the FFC, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales allows mobilization and deployment of staff and flood defences. Following a number of severe flood events during winters 2013-14 and 2015-16, coupled with a drive from the changing landscape in national incident response, there is a desire to identify flood events at even longer lead time. This earlier assessment and mobilization is becoming increasingly important and high profile within Government. For example, following the exceptional flooding across the north of England in December 2015 the Environment Agency have invested in 40 km of temporary barriers that will be moved around the country to help mitigate against the impacts of large flood events. Efficient and effective use of these barriers depends on identifying the broad regions at risk well in advance of the flood, as well as scaling the magnitude and duration of large events. Partly in response to this, the FFC now produce a flood risk assessment for a month ahead. In addition, since January 2017, the 'new generation' daily flood guidance statement includes an assessment of flood risk for the 6 to 10 day period. Examples of both these new products will be introduced, as will some of the new developments in science and technical capability that underpin these assessments. Examples include improvements to fluvial forecasting from 'fluvial decider', and downscaled hydrometeorological data that generates probabilistic river flows at 6 days lead time using the Delft-FEWS / Grid-to-Grid modelling system. Advances in coastal forecasting from surge and wave ensembles and also the longer range 'coastal decider' approach will also be presented.

Numerical simulation on ferrofluid flow in fractured porous media based on discrete-fracture model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Tao; Yao, Jun; Huang, Zhaoqin; Yin, Xiaolong; Xie, Haojun; Zhang, Jianguang

2017-06-01

Water flooding is an efficient approach to maintain reservoir pressure and has been widely used to enhance oil recovery. However, preferential water pathways such as fractures can significantly decrease the sweep efficiency. Therefore, the utilization ratio of injected water is seriously affected. How to develop new flooding technology to further improve the oil recovery in this situation is a pressing problem. For the past few years, controllable ferrofluid has caused the extensive concern in oil industry as a new functional material. In the presence of a gradient in the magnetic field strength, a magnetic body force is produced on the ferrofluid so that the attractive magnetic forces allow the ferrofluid to be manipulated to flow in any desired direction through the control of the external magnetic field. In view of these properties, the potential application of using the ferrofluid as a new kind of displacing fluid for flooding in fractured porous media is been studied in this paper for the first time. Considering the physical process of the mobilization of ferrofluid through porous media by arrangement of strong external magnetic fields, the magnetic body force was introduced into the Darcy equation and deals with fractures based on the discrete-fracture model. The fully implicit finite volume method is used to solve mathematical model and the validity and accuracy of numerical simulation, which is demonstrated through an experiment with ferrofluid flowing in a single fractured oil-saturated sand in a 2-D horizontal cell. At last, the water flooding and ferrofluid flooding in a complex fractured porous media have been studied. The results showed that the ferrofluid can be manipulated to flow in desired direction through control of the external magnetic field, so that using ferrofluid for flooding can raise the scope of the whole displacement. As a consequence, the oil recovery has been greatly improved in comparison to water flooding. Thus, the ferrofluid flooding is a large potential method for enhanced oil recovery in the future.

Effects of sulfur in flooded paddy soils: Implications for iron chemistry and arsenic mobilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avancha, S.; Boye, K.

2013-12-01

In the Mekong delta in Cambodia, naturally occurring arsenic (amplified by erosion in the Himalaya Mountains) in paddy soils is mobilized during the seasonal flooding. As a consequence, rice grown on the flooded soils may take up arsenic and expose people eating the rice to this carcinogenic substance. Iron and sulfur both interact strongly with arsenic in paddy soils: iron oxides are strong adsorbents for arsenic in oxic conditions, and sulfur (in the form of sulfide) is a strong adsorbent under anoxic conditions. In the process of reductive dissolution of iron oxides, arsenic, which had been adsorbed to the iron oxides, is released. Therefore, higher levels of reduced iron (ferrous iron) will likely correlate with higher levels of mobilized arsenic. However, the mobilized arsenic may then co-precipitate with or adsorb to iron sulfides, which form under sulfate-reducing conditions and with the aid of certain microbes already present in the soil. In a batch experiment, we investigated how these processes correlate and which has the greatest influence on arsenic mobilization and potential plant availability. The experiment was designed to measure the effects of various sources of sulfur (dried rice straw, charred rice straw, and gypsum) on the iron and arsenic release in an arsenic-contaminated paddy soil from Cambodia under flooded conditions. The two types of rice straw were designed to introduce the same amount of organic sulfur (7.7 μg/g of soil), but different levels of available carbon, since carbon stimulates microbial activity in the soil. In comparison, two different levels of gypsum (calcium sulfate) were used, 7.7 and 34.65 μg/g of soil, to test the effect of directly available inorganic sulfate without carbon addition. The soil was flooded with a buffer solution at pH 7.07 in airtight serum vials and kept as a slurry on a shaker at 25 °C. We measured pH, alkalinity, ferrous iron, ferric iron, sulfide, sulfate, total iron, sulfur, and arsenic in the aqueous phase on days 1, 3, 8, 15, 22, 29 and 38 from the start of the experiment.

Digital technologies in support of flood resilience: A case study from Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wei; McCallum, Ian; See, Linda; Dugar, Sumit; Laso-Bayas, Juan-Carlos

2016-04-01

This paper presents ongoing efforts to support flood resilience in the Karnali basin in Nepal through the provision of different forms of digital technology. Flood Risk Geo-Wiki is an online visualization and crowdsourcing tool, which has been adapted to display flood risk maps at the global scale as well as information of relevance to planners and the community at the local level. Community-based flood risk maps, which have traditionally been drawn on paper, are being digitized and integrated with OpenStreetMap to provide better access to this collective knowledge base. Mobile phones, using the GeoODK (Geographical Open Data Kit) questionnaire builder, are being deployed to collect georeferenced information on flood risks and vulnerability, which can be used to validate flood models and design action plans and strategies for coping with future flood events. These types of digital technologies are simple to implement yet together can help support flood prone communities.

Mobilization of pesticides on an agricultural landscape flooded by a torrential storm.

PubMed

Donald, David B; Hunter, Fraser G; Sverko, Ed; Hill, Bernard D; Syrgiannis, Jim

2005-01-01

Mobilization of pesticides into surface waters of flooded agricultural landscapes following extreme precipitation events has not been previously investigated. After receiving 96 mm of rain in the previous 45 d, the Vanguard area of southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada, was subjected to a torrential storm on July 3, 2000, that produced as much as 375 mm of rain in 8 h. The majority of herbicides, but no insecticides, would have been applied to crops in the Vanguard area during the four weeks preceding the storm. After the storm, 19 herbicides and insecticides were detected in flooded wetlands, with 14 of them detected in 50% or more of wetlands. Average concentrations ranged from 0.43 ng/L (endosulfan) to 362 ng/L (2,4-dichlorophenoxyacedic acid). The pesticides probably were from long-range transport, followed by deposition in rain, and from herbicides applied to crops within the area subjected to the storm (1,700 km2). In the following year, when only 62 mm of rain fell in the same 45 d, only five pesticides were detected in 50% or more of wetlands. We estimated that for the 1,700-km2 storm zone, 278 kg of herbicide were mobilized into rain and by runoff into surface waters, and 105 kg were removed from the Vanguard area by discharge into Notukeu Creek. Significant quantities of herbicides are mobilized to aquatic environments when prairie agricultural landscapes are subjected to torrential storms. In these circumstances, flooded wells and small municipal reservoirs used as sources of drinking water may be compromised by 10 or more pesticides, some at relatively high concentrations.

46 CFR 174.085 - Flooding on column stabilized units.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Flooding on column stabilized units. 174.085 Section 174.085 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SUBDIVISION AND STABILITY SPECIAL RULES PERTAINING TO SPECIFIC VESSEL TYPES Special Rules Pertaining to Mobile Offshore Drilling...

46 CFR 174.085 - Flooding on column stabilized units.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Flooding on column stabilized units. 174.085 Section 174.085 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SUBDIVISION AND STABILITY SPECIAL RULES PERTAINING TO SPECIFIC VESSEL TYPES Special Rules Pertaining to Mobile Offshore Drilling...

Development of an anti-flood board to protect the interiors and exteriors of the infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petru, Michal; Srb, Pavel; Sevcik, Ladislav; Martinec, Tomas; Kulhavy, Petr

2018-06-01

This article deals with the development of an anti-flood board to protect the interior and exterior of various infrastructures, such a houses, cottages or industrial buildings. It was designed prototypes and assembled numerical simulations. In Central Europe and in particular in the Czech Republic, floods are an integral part of the natural water cycle and cause great loss of life and great property damage. The development of new types of mobile anti-flood boards is very important as the design solution is developed for flood protection with regard to minimizing weight, cost of production, easy manipulation, simplicity and speed of installation.

Flood Risk Management in Iowa through an Integrated Flood Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, Ibrahim; Krajewski, Witold

2013-04-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 1100 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods. This presentation provides an overview and live demonstration of the tools and interfaces in the IFIS developed to date to provide a platform for one-stop access to flood related data, visualizations, flood conditions, and forecast.

Hurricane coastal flood analysis using multispectral spectral images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogashawara, I.; Ferreira, C.; Curtarelli, M. P.

2013-12-01

Flooding is one of the main hazards caused by extreme events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Therefore, flood maps are a crucial tool to support policy makers, environmental managers and other government agencies for emergency management, disaster recovery and risk reduction planning. However traditional flood mapping methods rely heavily on the interpolation of hydrodynamic models results, and most recently, the extensive collection of field data. These methods are time-consuming, labor intensive, and costly. Efficient and fast response alternative methods should be developed in order to improve flood mapping, and remote sensing has been proved as a valuable tool for this application. Our goal in this paper is to introduce a novel technique based on spectral analysis in order to aggregate knowledge and information to map coastal flood areas. For this purpose we used the Normalized Diference Water Index (NDWI) which was derived from two the medium resolution LANDSAT/TM 5 surface reflectance product from the LANDSAT climate data record (CDR). This product is generated from specialized software called Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS). We used the surface reflectance products acquired before and after the passage of Hurricane Ike for East Texas in September of 2008. We used as end member a classification of estimated flooded area based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) mobile storm surge network that was deployed for Hurricane Ike. We used a dataset which consisted of 59 water levels recording stations. The estimated flooded area was delineated interpolating the maximum surge in each location using a spline with barriers method with high tension and a 30 meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the National Elevation Dataset (NED). Our results showed that, in the flooded area, the NDWI values decreased after the hurricane landfall on average from 0.38 to 0.18 and the median value decreased from 0.36 to 0.2. However for the non-flooded area the NDWI increased after the hurricane landfall. The average value varied from 0.15 to 0.43 and the median value from 0.13 to 0.43. These results demonstrate that these differences can be explored for the mapping of flood areas. As NDWI was developed to quantify the amount of water in the leaf of the plants, the increase of the value is expected within the amount of water that the leaf will absorb. However in flooded areas the amount of water is so high that it is possible that the reflectance follows the water spectral behavior absorbing more than reflecting in the Near Infrared region. Thus, remote sensing techniques showed to be powerful tools since they could characterize flooded areas. However further studies are needed, applying and validating these techniques for other regions and different storms. Optical remote sensing is promising for many applications, since it will be an open door to studies of spatial and temporal analysis of the flood impacts mainly in areas with remote access and with a lack of in situ data.

Thirty Years Later: Reflections of the Big Thompson Flood, Colorado, 1976 to 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarrett, R. D.; Costa, J. E.; Brunstein, F. C.; Quesenberry, C. A.; Vandas, S. J.; Capesius, J. P.; O'Neill, G. B.

2006-12-01

Thirty years ago, over 300 mm of rain fell in about 4 to 6 hours in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin during the devastating flash flood on July 31, 1976. The rainstorm produced flood discharges that exceeded 40 m3/s/km2. A peak discharge of 883 m3/s was estimated at the Big Thompson River near Drake streamflow-gaging station. The raging waters left 144 people dead, 250 injured, and over 800 people were evacuated by helicopter. Four-hundred eighteen homes and businesses were destroyed, as well as 438 automobiles, and damage to infrastructure left the canyon reachable only via helicopter. Total damage was estimated in excess of $116 million (2006 dollars). Natural hazards similar to the Big Thompson flood are rare, but the probability of a similar event hitting the Front Range, other parts of Colorado, or other parts of the Nation is real. Although much smaller in scale than the Big Thompson flood, several flash floods have happened during the monsoon in early July 2006 in the Colorado foothills that reemphasized the hazards associated with flash flooding. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts flood research to help understand and predict the magnitude and likelihood of large streamflow events such as the Big Thompson flood. A summary of hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, what the 1976 flood can teach us about flash floods, a description of some of the advances in USGS flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and lessons that we learned to help reduce loss of life from this extraordinary flash flood are discussed. In the 30 years since the Big Thompson flood, there have been important advances in streamflow monitoring and flood warning. The National Weather Service (NWS) NEXRAD radar allows real-time monitoring of precipitation in most places in the United States. The USGS currently (2006) operates about 7,250 real-time streamflow-gaging stations in the United States that are monitored by the USGS, the NWS, and emergency managers. When substantial flooding occurs, the USGS mobilizes personnel to collect streamflow data in affected areas. Streamflow data improve flood forecasting and provide data for flood-frequency analysis for floodplain management, design of structures located in floodplains, and related water studies. An important lesson learned is that nature provides environmental signs before and during floods that can help people avoid hazard areas. Important contributions to flood science as a result of the 1976 flood include development of paleoflood methods to interpret the preserved flood-plain stratigraphy to document the number, magnitude, and age of floods that occurred prior to streamflow monitoring. These methods and data on large floods can be used in many mountain-river systems to help us better understand flood hazards and plan for the future. For example, according to conventional flood-frequency analysis, the 1976 Big Thompson flood had a flood recurrence interval of about 100 years. However, paleoflood research indicated the 1976 flood was the largest in about the last 10,000 years in the basin and had a flood recurrence interval in excess of 1,000 years.

Towards an Efficient Flooding Scheme Exploiting 2-Hop Backward Information in MANETs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Trong Duc; Choo, Hyunseung

Flooding is an indispensable operation for providing control or routing functionalities to mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). Previously, many flooding schemes have been studied with the intention of curtailing the problems of severe redundancies, contention, and collisions in traditional implementations. A recent approach with relatively high efficiency is 1HI by Liu et al., which uses only 1-hop neighbor information. The scheme achieves local optimality in terms of the number of retransmission nodes with time complexity &Theta(n log n), where n is the number of neighbors of a node; however, this method tends to make many redundant transmissions. In this paper, we present a novel flooding algorithm, 2HBI (2-hop backward information), that efficiently reduces the number of retransmission nodes and solves the broadcast storm problem in ad hoc networks using our proposed concept, “2-hop backward information.” The most significant feature of the proposed algorithm is that it does not require any extra communication overhead other than the exchange of 1-hop HELLO messages but maintains high deliverability. Comprehensive computer simulations show that the proposed scheme significantly reduces redundant transmissions in 1HI and in pure flooding, up to 38% and 91%, respectively; accordingly it alleviates contention and collisions in networks.

Predicting morphological changes DS New Naga-Hammadi Barrage for extreme Nile flood flows: A Monte Carlo analysis

PubMed Central

Sattar, Ahmed M.A.; Raslan, Yasser M.

2013-01-01

While construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD) has stopped concurrent flooding events, River Nile is still subject to low intensity flood waves resulting from controlled release of water from the dam reservoir. Analysis of flow released from New Naga-Hammadi Barrage, which is located at 3460 km downstream AHD indicated an increase in magnitude of flood released from the barrage in the past 10 years. A 2D numerical mobile bed model is utilized to investigate the possible morphological changes in the downstream of Naga-Hammadi Barrage from possible higher flood releases. Monte Carlo simulation analyses (MCS) is applied to the deterministic results of the 2D model to account for and assess the uncertainty of sediment parameters and formulations in addition to sacristy of field measurements. Results showed that the predicted volume of erosion yielded the highest uncertainty and variation from deterministic run, while navigation velocity yielded the least uncertainty. Furthermore, the error budget method is used to rank various sediment parameters for their contribution in the total prediction uncertainty. It is found that the suspended sediment contributed to output uncertainty more than other sediment parameters followed by bed load with 10% less order of magnitude. PMID:25685476

Predicting morphological changes DS New Naga-Hammadi Barrage for extreme Nile flood flows: A Monte Carlo analysis.

PubMed

Sattar, Ahmed M A; Raslan, Yasser M

2014-01-01

While construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD) has stopped concurrent flooding events, River Nile is still subject to low intensity flood waves resulting from controlled release of water from the dam reservoir. Analysis of flow released from New Naga-Hammadi Barrage, which is located at 3460 km downstream AHD indicated an increase in magnitude of flood released from the barrage in the past 10 years. A 2D numerical mobile bed model is utilized to investigate the possible morphological changes in the downstream of Naga-Hammadi Barrage from possible higher flood releases. Monte Carlo simulation analyses (MCS) is applied to the deterministic results of the 2D model to account for and assess the uncertainty of sediment parameters and formulations in addition to sacristy of field measurements. Results showed that the predicted volume of erosion yielded the highest uncertainty and variation from deterministic run, while navigation velocity yielded the least uncertainty. Furthermore, the error budget method is used to rank various sediment parameters for their contribution in the total prediction uncertainty. It is found that the suspended sediment contributed to output uncertainty more than other sediment parameters followed by bed load with 10% less order of magnitude.

76 FR 40738 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Standard Flood...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-11

... Community Development and Regulatory Improvement Act of 1994 was signed into law. Section 303 (a) of this... requirement for federally regulated lending institutions to determine whether a building or mobile home... Regulatory Improvement Act of 1994. The establishment of the Standard Flood Hazard Determination form has...

Freshwater mussel response to bedform movement: experimental stream studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozarek, J. L.; MacGregor, K. R.; Hornbach, D.; Hove, M.

2017-12-01

Freshwater mussels are intrinsically linked to near-bed sediment dynamics, but it remains unclear how mussels respond to changing sediment loads across spatial and temporal scales. The interactions between mussels and sediment transport are complex and often involve feedback loops. Mussels are filter feeders removing suspended particles from the water column and the physical presence of mussels can have significant impacts on the structure of riverbed habitat. We investigated the feedbacks between mussels, flow, and migrating bedforms during flood experiments in the St. Anthony Falls Laboratory Outdoor StreamLab (OSL) at the University of Minnesota. The OSL is a field-scale sand-bed meandering stream channel with independent control over sediment feed (recirculated) and water flow (diverted from the Mississippi River). Mussel location, orientation to flow, and protrusion from sediment was surveyed immediately before, after, and one and two days after each flood event. Flow fields, bed shear stress, bedform migration, and bar topography were measured during each flooding event with and without mussels present (density = 4/m2 and 8/m2) to quantify the influence of mussels on channel morphology and bedform migration. Mobile bedforms (up to 14 cm high) were present for all flood events with quasi-equilibrium, aggrading, and degrading bed conditions. Mussels moved little horizontally during all flood events, but were shown to move quickly to deeper water after the flood receded. However, mussels moved vertically, burrowing or being buried under mobile bedforms, during each flood event. The research presented here will focus on feedbacks between three mussel species with different shell sculptures, flow conditions, and migrating bedforms during flooding events. These results reveal how freshwater mussels respond to and affect flow and sediment transport during flood events that are difficult to observe in the field.

Hurricane Frederic tidal floods of September 12-13, 1979, along the Gulf Coast, Daphne-Point Clear quadrangles, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, John C.; Bohman, Larry R.

1980-01-01

Shown on a topographic map are floodmark elevations and approximate areas flooded by Hurricane Frederic tides of September 12-13, 1979, along the eastern shore of Mobile Bay generally from Daphne, Alabama, southward through Fairhope and Point Clear to Mullet Point, Alabama. Buildings and sewalls were damaged by flooding and tidal waves in the vicinity of Fairhope, Alabama. Most fishing piers along the shore were either destroyed or severely damaged. From Fairhope southward, many homes and other buildings, including the Grand Hotel complex at Great Point Clear, were severely damaged. Storm-tide frequency and records of annual maximum tides at Mobile, Alabama, since 1772, are presented. Offshore winds reached about 160 miles per hour. A wind-velocity of about 145 miles per hour was recorded near Dauphin Island, Alabama. (USGS)

Morphological and physiological responses of lowland purple nutsedge (Cyperus rotundus L.) to flooding.

PubMed

Fuentes, Rolly G; Baltazar, Aurora M; Merca, Florinia E; Ismail, Abdelbagi M; Johnson, David E

2010-01-01

Purple nutsedge (Cyperus rotundus L.) is a major weed of upland crops and vegetables. Recently, a flood-tolerant ecotype evolved as a serious weed in lowland rice. This study attempted to establish the putative growth and physiological features that led to this shift in adaptation. Tubers of upland C. rotundus (ULCR) and lowland C. rotundus (LLCR) ecotypes were collected from their native habitats and maintained under the respective growth conditions in a greenhouse. Five experiments were conducted to assess the variation between the two ecotypes in germination, growth and tuber morphology when grown in their native or 'switched' conditions. Carbohydrate storage and mobilization, and variation in anaerobic respiration under hypoxia were compared. Tubers of LLCR were larger than those of ULCR, with higher carbohydrate content, and larger tubers developed with increasing floodwater depth. Stems of LLCR had larger diameter and proportionally larger air spaces than those of ULCR: a method of aerating submerged plant parts. The LLCR ecotype can also mobilize and use carbohydrate reserves under hypoxia, and it maintained relatively lower and steadier activity of alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) as a measure of sustained anaerobic respiration. In contrast, ADH activity in ULCR increased faster upon a shift to hypoxia and then sharply decreased, suggesting depletion of available soluble sugar substrates. The LLCR ecotype also maintained lower lactate dehydrogenase activity under flooded conditions, which could reduce chances of cellular acidosis. These adaptive traits in the LLCR ecotype were expressed constitutively, but some of them, such as tuber growth and aerenchyma development, are enhanced with stress severity. The LLCR ecotype attained numerous adaptive traits that could have evolved as a consequence of natural evolution or repeated management practices, and alternative strategies are necessary because flooding is no longer a feasible management option.

Iowa Flood Information System: Towards Integrated Data Management, Analysis and Visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.; Goska, R.; Mantilla, R.; Weber, L. J.; Young, N.

2012-04-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 500 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods. This presentation provides an overview and live demonstration of the tools and interfaces in the IFIS developed to date to provide a platform for one-stop access to flood related data, visualizations, flood conditions, and forecast.

Iowa Flood Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.; Goska, R.; Mantilla, R.; Weber, L. J.; Young, N.

2011-12-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 500 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods. This presentation provides an overview of the tools and interfaces in the IFIS developed to date to provide a platform for one-stop access to flood related data, visualizations, flood conditions, and forecast.

Hydrodynamics of pedestrians' instability in floodwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Oumeraci, Hocine; Castelli, Fabio

2017-01-01

People's safety is the first objective to be fulfilled by flood risk mitigation measures, and according to existing reports on the causes of casualties, most of the fatalities are due to inappropriate behaviour such as walking or driving in floodwaters. Currently available experimental data on people instability in floodwaters suffer from a large dispersion primarily depending on the large variability of the physical characteristics of the subjects. This paper introduces a dimensionless mobility parameter θP for people partly immersed in flood flows, which accounts for both flood and subject characteristics. The parameter θP is capable of identifying a unique threshold of instability depending on a Froude number, thus reducing the scatter of existing experimental data. Moreover, a three-dimensional (3-D) numerical model describing the detailed geometry of a human body and reproducing a selection of critical pairs of water depth and velocity is presented. The numerical results in terms of hydrodynamic forces and force coefficients are analysed and discussed. Both the mobility parameter θP and the numerical results hint at the crucial role of the Froude number and relative submergence as the most relevant dimensionless numbers to interpret the loss of stability. Finally, the mobility parameter θP is compared with an analogous dimensionless parameter for vehicles' instability in floodwaters, providing a new contribution to support flood risk management and educating people.

Using multiple bed load measurements: Toward the identification of bed dilation and contraction in gravel-bed rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquis, G. A.; Roy, A. G.

2012-02-01

This study examines bed load transport processes in a small gravel-bed river (Béard Creek, Québec) using three complementary methods: bed elevation changes between successive floods, bed activity surveys using tags inserted into the bed, and bed load transport rates from bed load traps. The analysis of 20 flood events capable of mobilizing bed material led to the identification of divergent results among the methods. In particular, bed elevation changes were not consistent with the bed activity surveys. In many cases, bed elevation changes were significant (1 to 2 times the D50) even if the bed surface had not been activated during the flood, leading to the identification of processes of bed dilation and contraction that occurred over 10% to 40% of the bed surface. These dynamics of the river bed prevent accurate derivation of bed load transport rates from topographic changes, especially for low magnitude floods. This paper discusses the mechanisms that could explain the dilation and contraction of particles within the bed and their implications in fluvial dynamics. Bed contraction seems to be the result of the winnowing of the fine sediments under very low gravel transport. Bed dilation seems to occur on patches of the bed at the threshold of motion where various processes such as fine sediment infiltration lead to the maintenance of a larger sediment framework volume. Both processes are also influenced by flood history and the initial local bed state and in turn may have a significant impact on sediment transport and morphological changes in gravel-bed rivers.

Alkaline flooding for enhanced oil recovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gittler, W.E.

1983-09-01

There are over 12 active projects of varying size using one of 3 major types of alkaline agents. These include sodium silicate, caustic soda, and soda ash. Among the largest pilots currently is the THUMS project in the Wilmington field, California. Plans called for the injection of a 4% weight concentration of sodium orthosilicate over a 60% PV. Through the first 3 yr, over 27 million bbl of chemicals have been injected. Gulf Oil is operating several alkaline floods, one of which is located off shore in the Quarantine Bay field, Louisiana. In this pilot, sodium hydroxide in a weightmore » concentration of 5 to 12% is being injected. Belco Petroleum Corp. has reported that their pilot operating in the Isenhour Unit in Wyoming is using a .5% weight concentration of soda ash in conjunction with a polymer. Other uses for alkaline agents in chemical flooding include the use of silicate as a preflush or sacrificial agent in micellar/polymer and surfactant recovery systems. In addition, caustic has been tested in the surface-mixed caustic emulsion process while orthosilicate has been tested in a recovery method known as mobility-controlled caustic floods.« less

12 CFR 391.31 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

.... (d) Community means a State or a political subdivision of a State that has zoning and building code... defined in 12 U.S.C. 1813(b)(3) and any subsidiaries thereof. (c) Building means a walled and roofed... building or mobile home that is located or to be located in a special flood hazard area in which flood...

12 CFR 391.31 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

.... (d) Community means a State or a political subdivision of a State that has zoning and building code... defined in 12 U.S.C. 1813(b)(3) and any subsidiaries thereof. (c) Building means a walled and roofed... building or mobile home that is located or to be located in a special flood hazard area in which flood...

A Strategy for a Parametric Flood Insurance Using Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, M.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Traditionally, the design of flood control infrastructure and flood plain zoning require the estimation of return periods, which have been calculated by river hydraulic models with rainfall-runoff models. However, this multi-step modeling process leads to significant uncertainty to assess inundation. In addition, land use change and changing climate alter the potential losses, as well as make the modeling results obsolete. For these reasons, there is a strong need to create parametric indexes for the financial risk transfer for large flood events, to enable rapid response and recovery. Hence, this study examines the possibility of developing a parametric flood index at the national or regional level in Asia, which can be quickly mobilized after catastrophic floods. Specifically, we compare a single trigger based on rainfall index with multiple triggers using rainfall and streamflow indices by conducting case studies in Bangladesh and Thailand. The proposed methodology is 1) selecting suitable indices of rainfall and streamflow (if available), 2) identifying trigger levels for specified return periods for losses using stepwise and logistic regressions, 3) measuring the performance of indices, and 4) deriving return periods of selected windows and trigger levels. Based on the methodology, actual trigger levels were identified for Bangladesh and Thailand. Models based on multiple triggers reduced basis risks, an inherent problem in an index insurance. The proposed parametric flood index can be applied to countries with similar geographic and meteorological characteristics, and serve as a promising method for ex-ante risk financing for developing countries. This work is intended to be a preliminary work supporting future work on pricing risk transfer mechanisms in ex-ante risk finance.

Concentration-discharge relationships during an extreme event: Contrasting behavior of solutes and changes to chemical quality of dissolved organic material in the Boulder Creek Watershed during the September 2013 flood: SOLUTE FLUX IN A FLOOD EVENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rue, Garrett P.; Rock, Nathan D.; Gabor, Rachel S.

During the week of September 10-17, 2013, close to 20 inches of rain fell across Boulder County, Colorado, USA. This rainfall represented a 1000-year event that caused massive hillslope erosion, landslides, and mobilization of sediments. The resultant stream flows corresponded to a 100-year flood. For the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory (BC-CZO), this event provided an opportunity to study the effect of extreme rainfall on solute concentration-discharge relationships and biogeochemical catchment processes. We observed base cation and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations at two sites on Boulder Creek following the recession of peak flow. We also isolated three distinct fractionsmore » of dissolved organic matter (DOM) for chemical characterization. At the upper site, which represented the forested mountain catchment, the concentrations of the base cations Ca, Mg and Na were greatest at the peak flood and decreased only slightly, in contrast with DOC and K concentrations, which decreased substantially. At the lower site within urban corridor, all solutes decreased abruptly after the first week of flow recession, with base cation concentrations stabilizing while DOC and K continued to decrease. Additionally, we found significant spatiotemporal trends in the chemical quality of organic matter exported during the flood recession, as measured by fluorescence, 13C-NMR spectroscopy, and FTICR-MS. Similar to the effect of extreme rainfall events in driving landslides and mobilizing sediments, our findings suggest that such events mobilize solutes by the flushing of the deeper layers of the critical zone, and that this flushing regulates terrestrial-aquatic biogeochemical linkages during the flow recession.« less

Mercury mobilization in a flooded soil by incorporation into metallic copper and metal sulfide nanoparticles.

PubMed

Hofacker, Anke F; Voegelin, Andreas; Kaegi, Ralf; Kretzschmar, Ruben

2013-07-16

Mercury is a highly toxic priority pollutant that can be released from wetlands as a result of biogeochemical redox processes. To investigate the temperature-dependent release of colloidal and dissolved Hg induced by flooding of a contaminated riparian soil, we performed laboratory microcosm experiments at 5, 14, and 23 °C. Our results demonstrate substantial colloidal Hg mobilization concomitant with Cu prior to the main period of sulfate reduction. For Cu, we previously showed that this mobilization was due to biomineralization of metallic Cu nanoparticles associated with suspended bacteria. X-ray absorption spectroscopy at the Hg LIII-edge showed that colloidal Hg corresponded to Hg substituting for Cu in the metallic Cu nanoparticles. Over the course of microbial sulfate reduction, colloidal Hg concentrations decreased but continued to dominate total Hg in the pore water for up to 5 weeks of flooding at all temperatures. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) suggested that Hg became associated with Cu-rich mixed metal sulfide nanoparticles. The formation of Hg-containing metallic Cu and metal sulfide nanoparticles in contaminated riparian soils may influence the availability of Hg for methylation or volatilization processes and has substantial potential to drive Hg release into adjacent water bodies.

Channel-dynamic control on the establishment of riparian trees after large floods in northwestern California

Treesearch

Thomas E. Lisle

1989-01-01

Abstract - Large floods in northwestern California in the past two decades have mobilized extensive areas of valley floors, removed streamside trees, and widened channels. Channel cross sections were surveyed to illustrate an hypothesis on the linkage between sediment transport, colonization of channel margins by trees, and streambank recovery. Riparian trees, e.g.,...

NASA's Support to Flood Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, D. S.; Murray, J. J.; Stough, T.

2016-12-01

The extent of flood and inundation, the impacts on people and infrastructure, and generally the situational awareness on all scales for decision making are areas where NASA is mobilizing scientific results, advanced sensing and technologies, experts and partnerships to support response. NASA has targeted mature application science and ready technology for flood and inundation monitoring and assessment. This includes supporting timely data management and product dissemination with users and partners. Requirements are captured in the form of science-area questions, while solutions measure readiness for use by considering standard tools and approaches that make information more accessible, interoperable, understandable and reliable. The program collaborates with capacity building and areas of education and outreach needed to create and leverage non-traditional partnerships in transdisciplinary areas including socio-economic practice, preparedness and resilience assessment, early warning and forecast response, and emergency management, relief and recovery. The program outcomes also seek alignment with and support to global and community priorities related to water resources and food security. This presentation will examine the achievements of individual projects and the challenges and opportunities of more comprehensive and collaborative teams behind NASA's response to global flooding. Examples from recent event mobilization will be reviewed including to the serious of domestic floods across the south and Midwest United States throughout 2015 and 2016. Progress on the combined use of optical, microwave and SAR remote sensing measurements, topographic and geodetic data and mapping, data sharing practices will be reviewed. Other response case studies will examine global flood events monitored, characterized and supported in various boundary regions and nations. Achievements and future plans will be described for capabilities including global flood modeling, near real time flood water mapping and damage mapping, observatories, missions and tools to assess surface water variability. Progress being made to establish a comprehensive global flood science team and coordinated response system will be highlighted.

ARSENIC MOBILIZATION BY THE DISSIMILATORY FE(III)-REDUCING BACTERIUM SHEWANELLA ALGA BRY. (R825399)

EPA Science Inventory

The mobility of arsenic commonly increases as reducing conditions are
established within sediments or flooded soils. Although the reduction of arsenic
increases its solubility at circumneutral pH, hydrous ferric oxides (HFO)
strongly sorb both As(V) (arsenate) and ...

38 CFR 36.4701 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... having special flood hazards. (e) Designated loan means a loan secured by a building or mobile home that...) Mobile home means a structure, transportable in one or more sections, that is built on a permanent chassis and designed for use with or without a permanent foundation when attached to the required...

12 CFR 339.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... loan secured by a building or mobile home that is located or to be located in a special flood hazard... the Federal Emergency Management Agency. (g) Mobile home means a structure, transportable in one or more sections, that is built on a permanent chassis and designed for use with or without a permanent...

Channel-Dynamic Control on the Establishment of Riparian Trees After Large Floods in Northwestern California

Treesearch

Thomas E. Lisle

1989-01-01

Large floods in northwestern California in the past two decades have mobilized extensive areas of valley floors, removed streamside trees, and widened channels. Channel cross sections were surveyed to illustrate an hypothesis on the linkage between sediment transport, colonization of channel margins by trees, and streambank recovery. Riparian trees, e.g., white alder...

Establishing the environmental risk of metal contaminated river bank sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Sarah; Batty, Lesley; Byrne, Patrick

2016-04-01

Climate change predictions indicate an increase in the frequency and duration of flood events along with longer dry antecedent conditions, which could alter patterns of trace metal release from contaminated river bank sediments. This study took a laboratory mesocosm approach. Chemical analysis of water and sediment samples allowed the patterns of Pb and Zn release and key mechanisms controlling Pb and Zn mobility to be determined. Trace metal contaminants Pb and Zn were released throughout flooded periods. The highest concentrations of dissolved Pb were observed at the end of the longest flood period and high concentrations of dissolved Zn were released at the start of a flood. These concentrations were found to exceed environmental quality standards. Key mechanisms controlling mobility were (i) evaporation, precipitation and dissolution of Zn sulphate salts, (ii) anglesite solubility control of dissolved Pb, (iii) oxidation of galena and sphalerite, (iv) reductive dissolution of Mn/Fe hydroxides and co-precipitation/adsorption with Zn. In light of climate change predictions these results indicate future scenarios may include larger or more frequent transient 'pulses' of dissolved Pb and Zn released to river systems. These short lived pollution episodes could act as a significant barrier to achieving the EU Water Framework Directive objectives.

The physical vulnerability of elements at risk: a methodology based on fluid and classical mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzorana, B.; Fuchs, S.; Levaggi, L.

2012-04-01

The impacts of the flood events occurred in autumn 2011 in the Italian regions Liguria and Tuscany revived the engagement of the public decision makers to enhance in synergy flood control and land use planning. In this context, the design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation critically relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of both, the immobile and mobile elements at risk potentially exposed to flood hazards. Based on fluid and classical mechanics notions we developed computation schemes enabling for a dynamic vulnerability and risk analysis facing a broad typological variety of elements at risk. The methodological skeleton consists of (1) hydrodynamic computation of the time-varying flood intensities resulting for each element at risk in a succession of loading configurations; (2) modelling the mechanical response of the impacted elements through static, elasto-static and dynamic analyses; (3) characterising the mechanical response through proper structural damage variables and (4) economic valuation of the expected losses as a function of the quantified damage variables. From a computational perspective we coupled the description of the hydrodynamic flow behaviour and the induced structural modifications of the elements at risk exposed. Valuation methods, suitable to support a correct mapping from the value domains of the physical damage variables to the economic loss values are discussed. In such a way we target to complement from a methodological perspective the existing, mainly empirical, vulnerability and risk assessment approaches to refine the conceptual framework of the cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, we aim to support the design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies by diminishing the main criticalities within the systems prone to flood risk.

SURFACTANT - POLYMER INTERACTION FOR IMPROVED OIL RECOVERY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Unknown

1998-10-01

The goal of this research is to use the interaction between a surfactant and a polymer for efficient displacement of tertiary oil by improving slug integrity, adsorption and mobility control. Surfactant--polymer flooding has been shown to be highly effective in laboratory-scale linear floods. The focus of this proposal is to design an inexpensive surfactant-polymer mixture that can efficiently recover tertiary oil by avoiding surfactant slug degradation high adsorption and viscous/heterogeneity fingering. A mixture comprising a ''pseudo oil'' with appropriate surfactant and polymer has been selected to study micellar-polymer chemical flooding. The physical properties and phase behavior of this system havemore » been determined. A surfactant-polymer slug has been designed to achieve high efficiency recovery by improving phase behavior and mobility control. Recovery experiments have been performed on linear cores and a quarter 5-spot. The same recovery experiments have been simulated using a commercially available simulator (UTCHEM). Good agreement between experimental data and simulation results has been achieved.« less

75 FR 11468 - Final Flood Elevation Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-11

...] Elevation in meters (MSL) Modified Mobile County, Alabama, and Incorporated Areas Docket No.: FEMA-B-7732..., rounded to the nearest 0.1 meter. ADDRESSES City of Mobile Maps are available for inspection at 205... Incorporated Areas Docket No.: FEMA-B-1022 Bear Creek 9,400 feet upstream of +266 Unincorporated Areas of Weiss...

Pore-scale Investigation of Surfactant Induced Mobilization for the Remediation of LNAPL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, J.; Tick, G. R.

2011-12-01

The presence of nonaqueous phase liquids within the subsurface can significantly limit the effectiveness of groundwater remediation. Specifically, light nonaqueous phase liquids (LNAPLs) present unique challenges as they can become "smeared" within zones above and below the water table. The aim of this research is to understand the interfacial phenomena at the pore scale influencing residual saturation of LNAPL distribution as function of media heterogeneity and remediation processes from various aquifer systems. A series of columns were packed with three types of unconsolidated sand of increasing heterogeneity in grain size distribution and were established with residual saturations of light and heavy crude oil fractions, respectively. These columns were then subjected to flooding with 0.1% anionic surfactant solution in various episodes to initiate mobilization and enhanced recovery of NAPL phase contamination. Synchrotron X-ray microtomography (SXM) imaging technology was used to study three-dimensional (3-D) distributions of crude-oil-blobs before and after sequential surfactant flooding events. Results showed that LNAPL blob distributions became more heterogeneous after each subsequent surfactant flooding episode for all porous-media systems. NAPL recovery was most effective from the homogenous porous medium whereby 100% recovery resulted after 5 pore volumes (PVs) of flushing. LNAPL within the mildly heterogeneous porous medium produced a limited but consistent reduction in saturation after each surfactant flooding episode (23% and 43% recovery for light and heavy after the 5-PV flood). The highly heterogeneous porous medium showed greater NAPL recovery potential (42% and 16% for light and heavy) only after multiple pore volumes of flushing, at which point the NAPL blobs become fragmented into the smaller fragments in response to the reduced interfacial tension. The heterogeneity of the porous media (i.e. grain-size distribution) was a dominant control on the NAPL-blob-size-distribution trapped as residual saturation. The mobility of the NAPL blobs, as a result of surfactant flooding, was primarily controlled by the relative permeability of the medium and the reduction of interfacial tension between the wetting phase (water) and NAPL phase.

Coupling channel evolution monitoring and RFID tracking in a large, wandering, gravel-bed river: Insights into sediment routing on geomorphic continuity through a riffle-pool sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapuis, Margot; Dufour, Simon; Provansal, Mireille; Couvert, Bernard; de Linares, Matthieu

2015-02-01

Bedload transport and bedform mobility in large gravel-bed rivers are not easily monitored, especially during floods. Large reaches present difficulties in bed access during flows for flow measurements. Because of these logistical issues, the current knowledge about bedload transport processes and bedform mobility lacks field-based information, while this missing information would precisely match river management needs. The lack of information linking channel evolution and particle displacements is even more striking in wandering reaches. The Durance River is a large, wandering, gravel-bed river (catchment area: 14,280 km2; mean width: 240 m), located in the southern French Alps and highly impacted by flow diversion and gravel mining. In order to improve current understanding of the link between sediment transport processes and river bed morphodynamics, we set up a sediment particle survey in the channel using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tracking and topographic surveys (GPS RTK and scour chains) for a 4-year recurrence interval flood. By combining topographic changes before and after a flood, intraflood erosion/deposition patterns from scour chains, differential routing of tracer particles, and spatial distribution of bed shear stress through a complex reach, this paper aims to define the critical shear stress for significant sediment mobility in this setting. Gravel tracking highlights displacement patterns in agreement with bar downstream migration and transport of particles across the riffle within this single flood event. Because no velocity measurements were possible during flood, a TELEMAC three-dimensional model helped interpret particle displacements by estimating spatial distribution of shear stresses and flow directions at peak flow. Although RFID tracking in a large, wandering, gravel-bed river does have some technical limitations (burial, recovery process time-consuming), it provides useful information on sediment routing through a riffle-pool sequence.

Hierarchical auto-configuration addressing in mobile ad hoc networks (HAAM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ram Srikumar, P.; Sumathy, S.

2017-11-01

Addressing plays a vital role in networking to identify devices uniquely. A device must be assigned with a unique address in order to participate in the data communication in any network. Different protocols defining different types of addressing are proposed in literature. Address auto-configuration is a key requirement for self organizing networks. Existing auto-configuration based addressing protocols require broadcasting probes to all the nodes in the network before assigning a proper address to a new node. This needs further broadcasts to reflect the status of the acquired address in the network. Such methods incur high communication overheads due to repetitive flooding. To address this overhead, a new partially stateful address allocation scheme, namely Hierarchical Auto-configuration Addressing (HAAM) scheme is extended and proposed. Hierarchical addressing basically reduces latency and overhead caused during address configuration. Partially stateful addressing algorithm assigns addresses without the need for flooding and global state awareness, which in turn reduces the communication overhead and space complexity respectively. Nodes are assigned addresses hierarchically to maintain the graph of the network as a spanning tree which helps in effectively avoiding the broadcast storm problem. Proposed algorithm for HAAM handles network splits and merges efficiently in large scale mobile ad hoc networks incurring low communication overheads.

Toward a space-time scale framework for the study of everyday life activity's adaptation to hazardous hydro-meteorological conditions: Learning from the June 15th, 2010 flash flood event in Draguignan (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruin, Isabelle; Boudevillain, Brice; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Lutoff, Céline

2013-04-01

Western Mediterranean regions are favorable locations for heavy precipitating events. In recent years, many of them resulted in destructive flash floods with extended damage and loss of life: Nîmes 1988, Vaison-la-Romaine 1992, Aude 1999 and Gard 2002 and 2005. Because of the suddenness in the rise of water levels and the limited forecasting predictability, flash floods often surprise people in the midst of their daily activity and force them to react in a very limited amount of time. In such fast evolving events impacts depend not just on such compositional variables as the magnitude of the flood event and the vulnerability of those affected, but also on such contextual factors as its location and timing (night, rush hours, working hours...). Those contextual factors can alter the scale and social distribution of impacts and vulnerability to them. In the case of flooding fatalities, for instance, the elderly are often said to be the most vulnerable, but when fatalities are mapped against basin size and response time, it has been shown that in fact it is young adults who are most likely to be killed in flash flooding of small catchments, whereas the elderly are the most frequent victim of large scale fluvial flooding. Further investigations in the Gard region have shown that such tendency could be explained by a difference of attitude across ages with respect to mobility related to daily life routine and constraints. According to a survey of intentional behavior professionals appear to be less prone to adapting their daily activities and mobility to rapidly changing environmental conditions than non-professionals. Nevertheless, even if this appears as a tendency in both the analysis of limited data on death circumstances and intended behavior surveys, behavioral verification is very much needed. Understanding how many and why people decide to travel in hazardous weather conditions and how they adapt (or not) their activities and schedule in response to environmental perturbations requires an integrated approach, sensitive to the spatial and temporal dynamics of geophysical hazards and responses to them. Such integrated approaches of the Coupled Human and Natural System have been more common in the environmental change arena than in risk studies. Nevertheless, examining interactions between routine activity-travel patterns and hydro-meteorological dynamics in the context of flash flood event resulted in developing a space-time scale approach that brought new insights to vulnerability and risk studies. This scaling approach requires suitable data sets including information about the meteorological and local flooding dynamics, the perception of environmental cues, the changes in individuals' activity-travel patterns and the social interactions at the place and time where the actions were performed. Even if these types of data are commonly collected in various disciplinary research contexts, they are seldom collected all together and in the context of post-disaster studies. This paper describes the methodological developments of our approach and applies our data collection method to the case of the June 15th, 2010 flash flood events in the Draguignan area (Var, France). This flash flood event offers a typical example to study the relation between the flood dynamics and the social response in the context of a sudden degradation of the environment.

Future of Hydroinformatics: Towards Open, Integrated and Interactive Online Platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

2012-12-01

Hydroinformatics is a domain of science and technology dealing with the management of information in the field of hydrology (IWA, 2011). There is the need for innovative solutions to the challenges towards open information, integration, and communication in the Internet. This presentation provides an overview of the trends and challenges in the future of hydroinformatics, and demonstrates an information system, Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS), developed within the light of these challenges. The IFIS is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for more than 1000 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods.

Jet A fuel recovery using micellar flooding: Design and implementation.

PubMed

Kostarelos, Konstantinos; Lenschow, Søren R; Stylianou, Marinos A; de Blanc, Phillip C; Mygind, Mette Marie; Christensen, Anders G

2016-09-01

Surfactants offer two mechanisms for recovering NAPLs: 1) to mobilize NAPL by reducing NAPL/water interfacial tension, and; 2) to increase the NAPL's aqueous solubility-called solubilization-as an enhancement to pump & treat. The second approach has been well-studied and applied successfully in several pilot-scale and a few full-scale tests within the last 15years, known as Surfactant Enhanced Aquifer Remediation (SEAR). A useful source of information for this second approach is the "Surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) design manual" from the U.S. Navy Facilities Engineering Command. Few attempts, however, have been made at recovering NAPLs using the mobilization approach presented in this paper. Now, a full-scale field implementation of the mobilization approach is planned to recover an LNAPL (Jet A fuel) from a surficial sand aquifer located in Denmark using a smaller amount of surfactant solution and fewer PVs of throughput compared with the SEAR approach. The approach will rely on mobilizing the LNAPL so that it is recovered ahead of the surfactant microemulsion, also known as a micellar flood. This paper will review the laboratory work performed as part of the design for a full-scale implementation of a micellar flood. Completed lab work includes screening of surfactants, phase behavior and detailed salinity scans of the most promising formulations, and generating a ternary diagram to be used for the numerical simulations of the field application. The site owners and regulators were able to make crucial decisions such as the anticipated field results based on this work. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Freedom Space for Rivers: A Sustainable Management Approach to Enhance River Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biron, Pascale M.; Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Larocque, Marie; Choné, Guénolé; Cloutier, Claude-André; Ouellet, Marie-Audray; Demers, Sylvio; Olsen, Taylor; Desjarlais, Claude; Eyquem, Joanna

2014-11-01

River systems are increasingly under stress and pressure from agriculture and urbanization in riparian zones, resulting in frequent engineering interventions such as bank stabilization or flood protection. This study provides guidelines for a more sustainable approach to river management based on hydrogeomorphology concepts applied to three contrasted rivers in Quebec (Canada). Mobility and flooding spaces are determined for the three rivers, and three levels of "freedom space" are subsequently defined based on the combination of the two spaces. The first level of freedom space includes very frequently flooded and highly mobile zones over the next 50 years, as well as riparian wetlands. It provides the minimum space for both fluvial and ecological functionality of the river system. On average for the three studied sites, this minimum space was approximately 1.7 times the channel width, but this minimum space corresponds to a highly variable width which must be determined from a thorough hydrogeomorphic assessment and cannot be predicted using a representative average. The second level includes space for floods of larger magnitude and provides for meanders to migrate freely over a longer time period. The last level of freedom space represents exceptional flood zones. We propose the freedom space concept to be implemented in current river management legislation because it promotes a sustainable way to manage river systems, and it increases their resilience to climate and land use changes in comparison with traditional river management approaches which are based on frequent and spatially restricted interventions.

The impact of different flooding periods on the dynamics of pore water concentrations of As, Cr, Mo and V in a contaminated floodplain soil - results of a lysimeter study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupp, Holger; Meissner, Ralph; Shaheen, Sabry; Rinklebe, Jörg

2014-05-01

Trace elements and arsenic (As) were transported with water during inundation in floodplain ecosystems, where they settled down and accumulated predominantly in depressions and low-lying terraces. Highly variable hydrological conditions in floodplains can affect the dynamics of pollutants. The impact of different flooding/drying periods on the temporal dynamics of pore water concentrations of As, Cr, Mo and V as a function of soil EH/pH changes and dynamics of DOC, Fe, Mn and SO42- was studied in a contaminated floodplain soil collected at the Elbe River (Germany). A specific groundwater lysimeter technique with two separate small lysimeter vessels served as replicates was used for this study. The groundwater level inside the lysimeters was controlled to simulate long term and short term flooding/drying. The long term (LT) flooding scenario consists of 94 days of flooding followed by similar drying term. The short term (ST) flooding/drying scenario comprises 21 days and was six times repeated. The entire experimental period (LT_ST) was about 450 days. Flooding of the soil caused a significant decrease of EH and pH. Concentrations of soluble As, Cr, Fe, Mn, Mo and DOC were higher under reducing conditions than under oxidizing conditions in LT. However, As and Cr tended to be mobilized under oxidizing conditions during ST, which might be due to slow kinetics of the redox reaction of As and Cr. Dynamics of Mo were more affected by changes of EH/pH as compared to As, Cr and V and governed mainly by Fe-Mn chemistry. Concentrations of V in ST were higher than in LT and were controlled particularly by pH and chemistry of Fe. The interactions between the elements and carriers studied were stronger during long flood-dry-cycles than during short cycles, which confirmed our hypothesis. We conclude that the dynamics of As, Cr, Mo and V are determined by the length of time soils are exposed to flooding, because drivers of element mobility need a certain time to provoke reactions in soils under changing conditions.

Storm-generated Holocene and historical floods in the Manawatu River, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuller, Ian C.; Macklin, Mark G.; Toonen, Willem H. J.; Holt, Katherine A.

2018-06-01

This paper reports the first reconstruction of storm-generated late Holocene and historical river floods in the North Island of New Zealand. The sedimentary infills of nine palaeochannels were studied in the lower alluvial reaches of the Manawatu River. Floods in these palaeochannels were recorded as a series of sand-rich units set within finer-grained fills. Flood chronologies were constrained using a combination of radiocarbon dating, documentary sources, geochemical markers, and palynological information. Flood units were sedimentologically and geochemically characterised using high resolution ITRAX™ X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) core scanning and laser diffraction grain-size analysis. The longest palaeoflood record extends back ca.3000 years. The temporal resolution and length of the Manawatu record reflects accommodation space for fluvial deposits, channel dynamics and mobility, and high sediment supply. Floods that occurred in the Manawatu during the mid-1800s at the time of European land clearance and in the first decade of the twentieth century appear to be among the largest recorded in the last 3000 years.

Hitting rock bottom: morphological responses of bedrock-confined streams to a catastrophic flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baggs Sargood, M.; Cohen, T. J.; Thompson, C. J.; Croke, J.

2015-06-01

The role of extreme events in shaping the Earth's surface is one that has held the interests of Earth scientists for centuries. A catastrophic flood in a tectonically quiescent setting in eastern Australia in 2011 provides valuable insight into how semi-alluvial channels respond to such events. Field survey data (3 reaches) and desktop analyses (10 reaches) with catchment areas ranging from 0.5 to 168 km2 show that the predicted discharge for the 2011 event ranged from 415 to 933 m3 s-1, with unit stream power estimates of up to 1077 W m-2. Estimated entrainment relationships predict the mobility of the entire grain-size population, and field data suggest the localised mobility of boulders up to 4.8 m in diameter. Analysis of repeat lidar data demonstrates that all reaches (field and desktop) were areas of net degradation via extensive scouring of coarse-grained alluvium with a strong positive relationship between catchment area and normalised erosion (R2 = 0.72-0.74). The extensive scouring in the 2011 flood decreased thalweg variance significantly removing previous step pools and other coarse-grained in-channel units, forming lengths of plane-bed (cobble) reach morphology. This was also accompanied by the exposure of planar bedrock surfaces, marginal bedrock straths and bedrock steps. Post-flood field data indicate a slight increase in thalweg variance as a result of the smaller 2013 flood rebuilding the alluvial overprint with pool-riffle formation. However, the current form and distribution of channel morphological units does not conform to previous classifications of bedrock or headwater river systems. This variation in post-flood form indicates that in semi-alluvial systems extreme events are significant for re-setting the morphology of in-channel units and for exposing the underlying lithology to ongoing erosion.

The rivers of civilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macklin, Mark G.; Lewin, John

2015-04-01

The hydromorphic regimes that underpinned Old World river-based civilizations are reviewed in light of recent research. Notable Holocene climatic changes varied from region to region, whilst the dynamics of floodplain environments were equally diverse, with river channel changes significantly affecting human settlement. There were longer-term trends in Holocene hydroclimate and multi-centennial length 'flood-rich' and 'flood-poor' episodes. These impacted on five identified flooding and settlement scenarios: (i) alluvial fans and aprons; (ii) laterally mobile rivers; (iii) rivers with well-developed levees and flood basins; (iv) river systems characterised by avulsions and floodouts; and (v) large river-fed wetlands. This gave a range of changes that were either more or less regular or incremental from year-to-year (and thus potentially manageable) or catastrophic. The latter might be sudden during a flood event or a few seasons (acute), or over longer periods extending over many decades or even centuries (chronic). The geomorphic and environmental impacts of these events on riparian societies were very often irreversible. Contrasts are made between allogenic and autogenic mechanism for imposing environmental stress on riverine communities and a distinction is made between channel avulsion and contraction responses. Floods, droughts and river channel changes can precondition as well as trigger environmental crises and societal collapse. The Nile system currently offers the best set of independently dated Holocene fluvial and archaeological records, and the contrasted effects of changing hydromorphological regimes on floodwater farming are examined. The persistence of civilizations depended essentially on the societies that maintained them, but they were also understandably resilient in some environments (Pharaonic Egypt in the Egyptian Nile), appear to have had more limited windows of opportunity in others (the Kerma Kingdom in the Nubian Nile), or required settlement mobility or exceptional engineering response (Huang He, Mesopotamia) to accommodate problems such as river avulsion, desiccation or local salinization.

Lidar-based mapping of flood control levees in south Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; Lim, Samsung; Palaseanu-Lovejoy, Monica; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Kimbrow, Dustin R.

2016-01-01

Flood protection in south Louisiana is largely dependent on earthen levees, and in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina the state’s levee system has received intense scrutiny. Accurate elevation data along the levees are critical to local levee district managers responsible for monitoring and maintaining the extensive system of non-federal levees in coastal Louisiana. In 2012, high resolution airborne lidar data were acquired over levees in Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, and a mobile terrestrial lidar survey was conducted for selected levee segments using a terrestrial lidar scanner mounted on a truck. The mobile terrestrial lidar data were collected to test the feasibility of using this relatively new technology to map flood control levees and to compare the accuracy of the terrestrial and airborne lidar. Metrics assessing levee geometry derived from the two lidar surveys are also presented as an efficient, comprehensive method to quantify levee height and stability. The vertical root mean square error values of the terrestrial lidar and airborne lidar digital-derived digital terrain models were 0.038 m and 0.055 m, respectively. The comparison of levee metrics derived from the airborne and terrestrial lidar-based digital terrain models showed that both types of lidar yielded similar results, indicating that either or both surveying techniques could be used to monitor geomorphic change over time. Because airborne lidar is costly, many parts of the USA and other countries have never been mapped with airborne lidar, and repeat surveys are often not available for change detection studies. Terrestrial lidar provides a practical option for conducting repeat surveys of levees and other terrain features that cover a relatively small area, such as eroding cliffs or stream banks, and dunes.

Flash-Flood hydrological simulations at regional scale. Scale signature on road flooding vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anquetin, Sandrine; Vannier, Olivier; Ollagnier, Mélody; Braud, Isabelle

2015-04-01

This work contributes to the evaluation of the dynamics of the human exposure during flash-flood events in the Mediterranean region. Understanding why and how the commuters modify their daily mobility in the Cévennes - Vivarais area (France) is the long-term objective of the study. To reach this objective, the methodology relies on three steps: i) evaluation of daily travel patterns, ii) reconstitution of road flooding events in the region based on hydrological simulation at regional scale in order to capture the time evolution and the intensity of flood and iii) identification of the daily fluctuation of the exposition according to road flooding scenarios and the time evolution of mobility patterns. This work deals with the second step. To do that, the physically based and non-calibrated hydrological model CVN (Vannier, 2013) is implemented to retrieve the hydrological signature of past flash-flood events in Southern France. Four past events are analyzed (September 2002; September 2005 (split in 2 different events); October 2008). Since the regional scale is investigated, the scales of the studied catchments range from few km2 to few hundreds of km2 where many catchments are ungauged. The evaluation is based on a multi-scale approach using complementary observations coming from post-flood experiments (for small and/or ungaugged catchments) and operational hydrological network (for larger catchments). The scales of risk (time and location of the road flooding) are also compared to observed data of road cuts. The discussion aims at improving our understanding on the hydrological processes associated with road flooding vulnerability. We specifically analyze runoff coefficient and the ratio between surface and groundwater flows at regional scale. The results show that on the overall, the three regional simulations provide good scores for the probability of detection and false alarms concerning road flooding (1600 points are analyzed for the whole region). Our evaluation procedure provides new insights on the active hydrological processes at small scales (catchments area < 10 km²) since these small scales, distributed over the whole region, are analyzed through road cuts data and post-flood field investigations. As shown in Vannier (2013), the signature of the altered geological layer is significant on the simulated discharges. For catchments under schisty geology, the simulated discharge, whatever the catchment size, is usually overestimated. Vannier, O, 2013, Apport de la modélisation hydrologique régionale à la compréhension des processus de crue en zone méditerranéenne, PhD-Thesis (in French), Grenoble University.

Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

2016-04-01

Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

Experimental research on microscopic displacement mechanism of CO2-water alternative flooding in low permeability reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Hongyan; Zhu, Weiyao; Long, Yunqian; Song, Hongqing; Huang, Kun

2018-02-01

This paper provides an experimental method to deal with the problems of low oil recovery ratio faced with water flooding utilizing the CO2/water alternate displacement technology. A series of CO2/water alternate flooding experiments were carried out under 60°C and 18.4MPa using high temperature / pressure microscopic visualization simulation system. Then, we used the image processing technique and software to analyze the proportion of remaining oil in the displacement process. The results show that CO2 can extract the lighter chemical components in the crude oil and make it easier to form miscible phase, which can reduce the viscosity and favorable mobility ratio of oil. What’s more, the displacement reduces the impact of gas channeling, which can achieve an enlarged sweeping efficiency to improve filtration ability. In addition, the CO2 dissolved in oil and water can greatly reduce the interfacial tension, which can increase the oil displacement efficiency in a large extent. Generally speaking, the recovery rate of residual oil in the micro - model can be elevated up to 15.89% ∼ 16.48% under formation condition by alternate displacement.

The role of carbohydrates in seed germination and seedling establishment of Himatanthus sucuuba, an Amazonian tree with populations adapted to flooded and non-flooded conditions

PubMed Central

da Silva Ferreira, Cristiane; Piedade, Maria Teresa Fernandez; Tiné, Marco Aurélio Silva; Rossatto, Davi Rodrigo; Parolin, Pia; Buckeridge, Marcos Silveira

2009-01-01

Background and Aims In the Amazonian floodplains plants withstand annual periods of flooding which can last 7 months. Under these conditions seedlings remain submerged in the dark for long periods since light penetration in the water is limited. Himatanthus sucuuba is a tree species found in the ‘várzea’ (VZ) floodplains and adjacent non-flooded ‘terra-firme’ (TF) forests. Biochemical traits which enhance flood tolerance and colonization success of H. sucuuba in periodically flooded environments were investigated. Methods Storage carbohydrates of seeds of VZ and TF populations were extracted and analysed by HPAEC/PAD. Starch was analysed by enzyme (glucoamylase) degradation followed by quantification of glucose oxidase. Carbohydrate composition of roots of VZ and TF seedlings was studied after experimental exposure to a 15-d period of submersion in light versus darkness. Key Results The endosperm contains a large proportion of the seed reserves, raffinose being the main non-structural carbohydrate. Around 93 % of the cell wall storage polysaccharides (percentage dry weight basis) in the endosperm of VZ seeds was composed of mannose, while soluble sugars accounted for 2·5%. In contrast, 74 % of the endosperm in TF seeds was composed of galactomannans, while 22 % of the endosperm was soluble sugars. This suggested a larger carbohydrate allocation to germination in TF populations whereas VZ populations allocate comparatively more to carbohydrates mobilized during seedling development. The concentration of root non-structural carbohydrates in non-flooded seedlings strongly decreased after a 15-d period of darkness, whereas flooded seedlings were less affected. These effects were more pronounced in TF seedlings, which showed significantly lower root non-structural carbohydrate concentrations. Conclusions There seem to be metabolic adjustments in VZ but not TF seedlings that lead to adaptation to the combined stresses of darkness and flooding. This seems to be important for the survival of the species in these contrasting environments, leading these populations to different directions during evolution. PMID:19770164

Gauging Flash-Floods: Automated Measurement of Flood Events in Mountain Torrents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liechti, Katharina; Boss, Stefan; Fritschi, Bruno; Zappa, Massimiliano

2017-04-01

Rating curves contain uncertainties, especially in their upper range of higher discharge. This is due to more uncertainties in the measurements and also the typically lower number of measurements of high discharge events. However, it is the upper part of a rating curve that is of interest if it comes to dimensioning protection measures against floods and flash floods. For small municipalities who plan mitigation measures like a dam for protection against flash floods of small mountain torrent a rating curve as accurate as possible can be of great interest. It helps to reduce costs that can be caused by both under- and overdimensioning of a protective structure. We therefore invented a mobile discharge measurement station that is set up to construct a rating curve for small turbulent mountain torrents. It operates with salt dilution method and works in its current setup up to about 10 m3/s. The salt is injected automatically to the torrent when an event of desired magnitude takes place. Further downstream a conductivity measuring sensor records the change in salt concentration of the stream water. This mechanism is guided by automatic continuous observation of radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and a water pressure sensor. Measurements at a first test site gave promising results. The system does event measurements independent of the time of day and day of the week. The measuring equipment at the field site is only activated in case of an event. Therefore it has a low power consumption and can be run by only two solar panels.

Metagenomic profiling of historic Colorado Front Range flood impact on distribution of riverine antibiotic resistance genes.

PubMed

Garner, Emily; Wallace, Joshua S; Argoty, Gustavo Arango; Wilkinson, Caitlin; Fahrenfeld, Nicole; Heath, Lenwood S; Zhang, Liqing; Arabi, Mazdak; Aga, Diana S; Pruden, Amy

2016-12-05

Record-breaking floods in September 2013 caused massive damage to homes and infrastructure across the Colorado Front Range and heavily impacted the Cache La Poudre River watershed. Given the unique nature of this watershed as a test-bed for tracking environmental pathways of antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) dissemination, we sought to determine the impact of extreme flooding on ARG reservoirs in river water and sediment. We utilized high-throughput DNA sequencing to obtain metagenomic profiles of ARGs before and after flooding, and investigated 23 antibiotics and 14 metals as putative selective agents during post-flood recovery. With 277 ARG subtypes identified across samples, total bulk water ARGs decreased following the flood but recovered to near pre-flood abundances by ten months post-flood at both a pristine site and at a site historically heavily influenced by wastewater treatment plants and animal feeding operations. Network analysis of de novo assembled sequencing reads into 52,556 scaffolds identified ARGs likely located on mobile genetic elements, with up to 11 ARGs per plasmid-associated scaffold. Bulk water bacterial phylogeny correlated with ARG profiles while sediment phylogeny varied along the river's anthropogenic gradient. This rare flood afforded the opportunity to gain deeper insight into factors influencing the spread of ARGs in watersheds.

Metagenomic profiling of historic Colorado Front Range flood impact on distribution of riverine antibiotic resistance genes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, Emily; Wallace, Joshua S.; Argoty, Gustavo Arango; Wilkinson, Caitlin; Fahrenfeld, Nicole; Heath, Lenwood S.; Zhang, Liqing; Arabi, Mazdak; Aga, Diana S.; Pruden, Amy

2016-12-01

Record-breaking floods in September 2013 caused massive damage to homes and infrastructure across the Colorado Front Range and heavily impacted the Cache La Poudre River watershed. Given the unique nature of this watershed as a test-bed for tracking environmental pathways of antibiotic resistance gene (ARG) dissemination, we sought to determine the impact of extreme flooding on ARG reservoirs in river water and sediment. We utilized high-throughput DNA sequencing to obtain metagenomic profiles of ARGs before and after flooding, and investigated 23 antibiotics and 14 metals as putative selective agents during post-flood recovery. With 277 ARG subtypes identified across samples, total bulk water ARGs decreased following the flood but recovered to near pre-flood abundances by ten months post-flood at both a pristine site and at a site historically heavily influenced by wastewater treatment plants and animal feeding operations. Network analysis of de novo assembled sequencing reads into 52,556 scaffolds identified ARGs likely located on mobile genetic elements, with up to 11 ARGs per plasmid-associated scaffold. Bulk water bacterial phylogeny correlated with ARG profiles while sediment phylogeny varied along the river’s anthropogenic gradient. This rare flood afforded the opportunity to gain deeper insight into factors influencing the spread of ARGs in watersheds.

Hydrologic and Temporal Influences of Evaporite Minerals on the Vertical Distribution, Storage, and Mobility of Uranium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roycroft, S. J.; Noel, V.; Boye, K.; Besancon, C.; Weaver, K. L.; Johnson, R. H.; Dam, W. L.; Fendorf, S. E.; Bargar, J.

2016-12-01

Uranium contaminated groundwater in Riverton, Wyoming persists despite anticipated natural attenuation outside of a former uranium ore processing facility. The inability of natural flushing to dilute the uranium below the regulatory threshold indicates that sediments act as secondary sources likely (re)supplying uranium to groundwater. Throughout the contaminated floodplain, uranium rich-evaporites are readily abundant in the upper 2 m of sediments and are spatially coincident with the location of the plume, which suggests a likely link between evaporites and increased uranium levels. Knowledge of where and how uranium is stored within evaporite-associated sediments is required to understand processes controlling the mobility of uranium. We expect that flooding and seasonal changes in hydrologic conditions will affect U phase partitioning, and thus largely control U mobility. The primary questions we are addressing in this project are: What is the relative abundance of uranium incorporated in various mineral complexes throughout the evaporite sediments? How do the factors of depth, location, and seasonality influence the relative incorporation, mobility and speciation of uranium?We have systematically sampled from two soil columns over three dates in Riverton. The sampling dates span before and after a significant flooding event, providing insight into the flood's impact on local uranium mobility. Sequential chemical extractions are used to decipher the reactivity of uranium and approximate U operationally defined within reactants targeting carbonate, silicate, organic, and metal oxide bound or water and exchangeable phases. Extractions throughout the entirety of the sediment cores provide a high-resolution vertical profile of the distribution of uranium in various extracted phases. Throughout the profile, the majority (50-60%) of uranium is bound within carbonate-targeted extracts, a direct effect of the carbonate-rich evaporite sediments. The sum of our analyses provide a dynamic model of uranium incorporation within evaporite sediments holding implications for the fate of uranium throughout contaminated sites across the Colorado River Basin.

Experimental study on electromagnetic-assisted ZnO nanofluid flooding for enhanced oil recovery (EOR)

PubMed Central

Ahmad Latiff, Noor Rasyada; Alnarabiji, Mohamad Sahban

2018-01-01

Recently, nano-EOR has emerged as a new frontier for improved and enhanced oil recovery (IOR & EOR). Despite their benefits, the nanoparticles tend to agglomerate at reservoir conditions which cause their detachment from the oil/water interface, and are consequently retained rather than transported through a porous medium. Dielectric nanoparticles including ZnO have been proposed to be a good replacement for EOR due to their high melting point and thermal properties. But more importantly, these particles can be polarized under electromagnetic (EM) irradiation, which provides an innovative smart Nano-EOR process denoted as EM-Assisted Nano-EOR. In this study, parameters involved in the oil recovery mechanism under EM waves, such as reducing mobility ratio, lowering interfacial tensions (IFT) and altering wettability were investigated. Two-phase displacement experiments were performed in sandpacks under the water-wet condition at 95°C, with permeability in the range of 265–300 mD. A crude oil from Tapis oil field was employed; while ZnO nanofluids of two different particle sizes (55.7 and 117.1 nm) were prepared using 0.1 wt. % nanoparticles that dispersed into brine (3 wt. % NaCl) along with SDBS as a dispersant. In each flooding scheme, three injection sequential scenarios have been conducted: (i) brine flooding as a secondary process, (ii) surfactant/nano/EM-assisted nano flooding, and (iii) second brine flooding to flush nanoparticles. Compare with surfactant flooding (2% original oil in place/OOIP) as tertiary recovery, nano flooding almost reaches 8.5–10.2% of OOIP. On the other hand, EM-assisted nano flooding provides an incremental oil recovery of approximately 9–10.4% of OOIP. By evaluating the contact angle and interfacial tension, it was established that the degree of IFT reduction plays a governing role in the oil displacement mechanism via nano-EOR, compare to mobility ratio. These results reveal a promising way to employ water-based ZnO nanofluid for enhanced oil recovery purposes at a relatively high reservoir temperature. PMID:29489897

Experimental study on electromagnetic-assisted ZnO nanofluid flooding for enhanced oil recovery (EOR).

PubMed

Adil, Muhammad; Lee, Keanchuan; Mohd Zaid, Hasnah; Ahmad Latiff, Noor Rasyada; Alnarabiji, Mohamad Sahban

2018-01-01

Recently, nano-EOR has emerged as a new frontier for improved and enhanced oil recovery (IOR & EOR). Despite their benefits, the nanoparticles tend to agglomerate at reservoir conditions which cause their detachment from the oil/water interface, and are consequently retained rather than transported through a porous medium. Dielectric nanoparticles including ZnO have been proposed to be a good replacement for EOR due to their high melting point and thermal properties. But more importantly, these particles can be polarized under electromagnetic (EM) irradiation, which provides an innovative smart Nano-EOR process denoted as EM-Assisted Nano-EOR. In this study, parameters involved in the oil recovery mechanism under EM waves, such as reducing mobility ratio, lowering interfacial tensions (IFT) and altering wettability were investigated. Two-phase displacement experiments were performed in sandpacks under the water-wet condition at 95°C, with permeability in the range of 265-300 mD. A crude oil from Tapis oil field was employed; while ZnO nanofluids of two different particle sizes (55.7 and 117.1 nm) were prepared using 0.1 wt. % nanoparticles that dispersed into brine (3 wt. % NaCl) along with SDBS as a dispersant. In each flooding scheme, three injection sequential scenarios have been conducted: (i) brine flooding as a secondary process, (ii) surfactant/nano/EM-assisted nano flooding, and (iii) second brine flooding to flush nanoparticles. Compare with surfactant flooding (2% original oil in place/OOIP) as tertiary recovery, nano flooding almost reaches 8.5-10.2% of OOIP. On the other hand, EM-assisted nano flooding provides an incremental oil recovery of approximately 9-10.4% of OOIP. By evaluating the contact angle and interfacial tension, it was established that the degree of IFT reduction plays a governing role in the oil displacement mechanism via nano-EOR, compare to mobility ratio. These results reveal a promising way to employ water-based ZnO nanofluid for enhanced oil recovery purposes at a relatively high reservoir temperature.

Characterizing Microbial Water Quality of Extreme Tide Floodwaters Discharged from an Urbanized Subtropical Beach: Case Study of Miami Beach with Implications for Sea Level Rise and Public Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gidley, M. L.

2016-02-01

With the advent of rising sea levels and increasing incidents of extreme tidal flooding events and stormwater flooding events, there is increasing probability of mobilization of land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) from highly urbanized beach environments and potential transport of these contaminants to coastal waters where they may have negative impacts on ecosystems and public health. A case in point is the situation facing the City of Miami Beach, where urban tidal flooding has become routine for extreme tidal events such as King Tide. To deal with the increasing problem of tidal flooding and other potential sources of coastal inundation, the City of Miami Beach has installed a system of floodwater/stormwater pumping stations to collect and discharge such floodwaters. This system appears to control the extent and duration of coastal inundation, however, the floodwater is discharged directly into Biscayne Bay without any treatment , which may potentially carry a variety of pollutants acquired during inundation of this urbanized coast. We report a case study examining the microbial water quality of floodwaters discharged by this pumping system back into Biscayne Bay following the inundation by King Tide floodwaters from September 2014 and 2015. The presence and abundance of both general and host-specific fecal indicating bacteria (FIB), including enterococci and human-host Bacteriodales were measured by traditional culture methods and by molecular microbial source tracking (MST) qPCR methods. While the results from different locations did vary substantially, several discharge samples demonstrated high elevations of fecal indicator bacteria and high levels of human fecal marker by MST. This study suggests that while such flood control measures may improve resiliency of urbanized coastal communities to tidal flooding and/or stormwater, the water quality of such floodwater discharges need to be monitored and potentially treated to mediate the transport of LBSP contaminants to the coastal zone, thus better protecting both ecosystem and public health in an era of sea level rise and more frequent inundation events.

Global, Daily, Near Real-Time Satellite-based Flood Monitoring and Product Dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slayback, D. A.; Policelli, F. S.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Tokay, M. M.; Smith, M. M.; Kettner, A. J.

2013-12-01

Flooding is the most destructive, frequent, and costly natural disaster faced by modern society, and is expected to increase in frequency and damage with climate change and population growth. Some of 2013's major floods have impacted the New York City region, the Midwest, Alberta, Australia, various parts of China, Thailand, Pakistan, and central Europe. The toll of these events, in financial costs, displacement of individuals, and deaths, is substantial and continues to rise as climate change generates more extreme weather events. When these events do occur, the disaster management community requires frequently updated and easily accessible information to better understand the extent of flooding and better coordinate response efforts. With funding from NASA's Applied Sciences program, we developed and are now operating a near real-time global flood mapping system to help provide critical flood extent information within 24-48 hours of events. The system applies a water detection algorithm to MODIS imagery received from the LANCE (Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS) system at NASA Goddard within a few hours of satellite overpass. Using imagery from both the Terra (10:30 AM local time overpass) and Aqua (1:30 PM) platforms allows an initial daily assessment of flooding extent by late afternoon, and more robust assessments after accumulating cloud-free imagery over several days. Cloud cover is the primary limitation in detecting surface water from MODIS imagery. Other issues include the relatively coarse scale of the MODIS imagery (250 meters), the difficulty of detecting flood waters in areas with continuous canopy cover, confusion of shadow (cloud or terrain) with water, and accurately identifying detected water as flood as opposed to normal water extents. We have made progress on many of these issues, and are working to develop higher resolution flood detection using alternate sensors, including Landsat and various radar sensors. Although these provide better spatial resolution, this typically comes at the cost of being less timely. Since late 2011, this system has been providing daily flood maps of the global non-antarctic land surface. These data products are generated in raster and vector formats, and provided freely on our website. To better serve the disaster response community, we have recently begun providing the products via live OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) services, allowing easy access in a variety of platforms (Google Earth, desktop GIS software, mobile phone apps). We are also working with the Pacific Disaster Center to bring our product into their Disaster Alert system (including a mobile app), which will help simplify product distribution to the disaster management community.

Improving Bedload Transport Predictions by Incorporating Hysteresis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowe Curran, J.; Gaeuman, D.

2015-12-01

The importance of unsteady flow on sediment transport rates has long been recognized. However, the majority of sediment transport models were developed under steady flow conditions that did not account for changing bed morphologies and sediment transport during flood events. More recent research has used laboratory data and field data to quantify the influence of hysteresis on bedload transport and adjust transport models. In this research, these new methods are combined to improve further the accuracy of bedload transport rate quantification and prediction. The first approach defined reference shear stresses for hydrograph rising and falling limbs, and used these values to predict total and fractional transport rates during a hydrograph. From this research, a parameter for improving transport predictions during unsteady flows was developed. The second approach applied a maximum likelihood procedure to fit a bedload rating curve to measurements from a number of different coarse bed rivers. Parameters defining the rating curve were optimized for values that maximized the conditional probability of producing the measured bedload transport rate. Bedload sample magnitude was fit to a gamma distribution, and the probability of collecting N particles in a sampler during a given time step was described with a Poisson probability density function. Both approaches improved estimates of total transport during large flow events when compared to existing methods and transport models. Recognizing and accounting for the changes in transport parameters over time frames on the order of a flood or flood sequence influences the choice of method for parameter calculation in sediment transport calculations. Those methods that more tightly link the changing flow rate and bed mobility have the potential to improve bedload transport rates.

Environment Agency England flood warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

2015-04-01

Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to registration via third parties. The 'Future Flood Warning System' Our research shows that people want more choice on how they access and receive warnings. Many want a service tailored to their own risk, rather than that of their community. They also want more information about the forecast and the situation to that they can make decisions personal to their circumstances. Our future flood warning system will build upon the success of our existing service and will aim to: • provide our customers with a more flexible and personalised self-service approach which caters for the diverse range of user needs • alert people wherever they are, not just in properties • be flexible enough to respond to user feedback to make improvements and utilise new technology as it becomes available • provide real-time visualisation of system performance, to assist our flood response • capture greater levels of information from the recipients of our warnings • be efficient for operators of the system and utilise automation where relevant • take a risk based approach to resilience to provide the highest level of reliability when needed at a reduced cost

Detailed Project Report and Environmental Assessment on Upper Gordons Creek, Urban Flood Damage Reduction Measures at Hattiesburg, Mississippi.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-09-01

REDUCTION MEASURES AT HATTIESBURG, MISSISSIPPI US Army Corps SEPTEMBER 1986 of Engineers Mobile District DTIC South Atlantic Division O ELECTE S APR 14S1 87...8. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER(&) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile 9. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT, PROJECT. TASK U.S...Army Corps of Enineers AREA & WORK UNIT NUMBERS ATTN: SAMPD-FW 1 P.O. Box 2288, Mobile , AL 36628 $1. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12. REPORT

Effects of an extreme flood on river morphology (case study: Karoon River, Iran)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yousefi, Saleh; Mirzaee, Somayeh; Keesstra, Saskia; Surian, Nicola; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Zakizadeh, Hamid Reza; Tabibian, Sahar

2018-03-01

An extreme flood occurred on 14 April 2016 in the Karoon River, Iran. The occurred flood discharge was the highest discharge recorded over the last 60 years in the Karoon River. Using the OLI Landsat images taken on 8 April 2016 (before the flood) and 24 April 2016 (after the flood) the geomorphic effects were detected in different land cover types within the 155-km-long study reach. The results show that the flood significantly affected the channel width and the main effect was high mobilization of channel sediments and severe bank erosion in the meandering reaches. According to field surveys, the flood occupied the channel corridor and even the floodplain parts. However, the channel pattern was not significantly altered, although the results show that the average channel width increased from 192 to 256 m. Statistical results indicate a significant change for active channel width and sinuosity index at 99% confidence level for both indexes. The flood-induced morphological changes varied significantly for different land cover types along the Karoon River. Specifically, the channel has widened less in residential areas than in other land cover types because of the occurrence of bank protection structures. However, the value of bank retreat in residential and protected sides of the Karoon River is more than what we expected during the study of extreme flood.

Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

On the objective identification of flood seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; BobéE, Bernard

2004-01-01

The determination of seasons of high and low probability of flood occurrence is a task with many practical applications in contemporary hydrology and water resources management. Flood seasons are generally identified subjectively by visually assessing the temporal distribution of flood occurrences and, then at a regional scale, verified by comparing the temporal distribution with distributions obtained at hydrologically similar neighboring sites. This approach is subjective, time consuming, and potentially unreliable. The main objective of this study is therefore to introduce a new, objective, and systematic method for the identification of flood seasons. The proposed method tests the significance of flood seasons by comparing the observed variability of flood occurrences with the theoretical flood variability in a nonseasonal model. The method also addresses the uncertainty resulting from sampling variability by quantifying the probability associated with the identified flood seasons. The performance of the method was tested on an extensive number of samples with different record lengths generated from several theoretical models of flood seasonality. The proposed approach was then applied on real data from a large set of sites with different flood regimes across Great Britain. The results show that the method can efficiently identify flood seasons from both theoretical and observed distributions of flood occurrence. The results were used for the determination of the main flood seasonality types in Great Britain.

Why does Japan use the probability method to set design flood?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

Design flood is hypothetical flood to make flood prevention plan. In Japan, a probability method based on precipitation data is used to define the scale of design flood: Tone River, the biggest river in Japan, is 1 in 200 years, Shinano River is 1 in 150 years, and so on. It is one of important socio-hydrological issue how to set reasonable and acceptable design flood in a changing world. The method to set design flood vary among countries. Although the probability method is also used in Netherland, but the base data is water level or discharge data and the probability is 1 in 1250 years (in fresh water section). On the other side, USA and China apply the maximum flood method which set the design flood based on the historical or probable maximum flood. This cases can leads a question: "what is the reason why the method vary among countries?" or "why does Japan use the probability method?" The purpose of this study is to clarify the historical process which the probability method was developed in Japan based on the literature. In the late 19the century, the concept of "discharge" and modern river engineering were imported by Dutch engineers, and modern flood prevention plans were developed in Japan. In these plans, the design floods were set based on the historical maximum method. Although the historical maximum method had been used until World War 2, however, the method was changed to the probability method after the war because of limitations of historical maximum method under the specific socio-economic situations: (1) the budget limitation due to the war and the GHQ occupation, (2) the historical floods: Makurazaki typhoon in 1945, Kathleen typhoon in 1947, Ione typhoon in 1948, and so on, attacked Japan and broke the record of historical maximum discharge in main rivers and the flood disasters made the flood prevention projects difficult to complete. Then, Japanese hydrologists imported the hydrological probability statistics from the West to take account of socio-economic situation in design flood, and they applied to Japanese rivers in 1958. The probability method was applied Japan to adapt the specific socio-economic and natural situation during the confusion after the war.

A social activity and physical contact-based routing algorithm in mobile opportunistic networks for emergency response to sudden disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiaoming; Lin, Yaguang; Zhang, Shanshan; Cai, Zhipeng

2017-05-01

Sudden disasters such as earthquake, flood and hurricane necessitate the employment of communication networks to carry out emergency response activities. Routing has a significant impact on the functionality, performance and flexibility of communication networks. In this article, the routing problem is studied considering the delivery ratio of messages, the overhead ratio of messages and the average delay of messages in mobile opportunistic networks (MONs) for enterprise-level emergency response communications in sudden disaster scenarios. Unlike the traditional routing methods for MONS, this article presents a new two-stage spreading and forwarding dynamic routing algorithm based on the proposed social activity degree and physical contact factor for mobile customers. A new modelling method for describing a dynamic evolving process of the topology structure of a MON is first proposed. Then a multi-copy spreading strategy based on the social activity degree of nodes and a single-copy forwarding strategy based on the physical contact factor between nodes are designed. Compared with the most relevant routing algorithms such as Epidemic, Prophet, Labelled-sim, Dlife-comm and Distribute-sim, the proposed routing algorithm can significantly increase the delivery ratio of messages, and decrease the overhead ratio and average delay of messages.

BIOCHEM-ORCHESTRA: a tool for evaluating chemical speciation and ecotoxicological impacts of heavy metals on river flood plain systems.

PubMed

Vink, J P M; Meeussen, J C L

2007-08-01

The chemical speciation model BIOCHEM was extended with ecotoxicological transfer functions for uptake of metals (As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) by plants and soil invertebrates. It was coupled to the object-oriented framework ORCHESTRA to achieve a flexible and dynamic decision support system (DSS) to analyse natural or anthropogenic changes that occur in river systems. The DSS uses the chemical characteristics of soils and sediments as input, and calculates speciation and subsequent uptake by biota at various scenarios. Biotic transfer functions were field-validated, and actual hydrological conditions were derived from long-term monitoring data. The DSS was tested for several scenarios that occur in the Meuse catchment areas, such as flooding and sedimentation of riverine sediments on flood plains. Risks are expressed in terms of changes in chemical mobility, and uptake by flood plain key species (flora and fauna).

Emotional processing and outcome of imaginal flooding therapy in Vietnam veterans with chronic posttraumatic stress disorder.

PubMed

Pitman, R K; Orr, S P; Altman, B; Longpre, R E; Poiré, R E; Macklin, M L; Michaels, M J; Steketee, G S

1996-01-01

This study examined emotional processing and outcome in 20 Vietnam veterans with chronic posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) who underwent imaginal flooding therapy. Results supported the occurrence of emotional processing, as manifest in significant activation, within-session habituation, and partial across-session habituation of physiologic and self-reported process variables. The flooding therapy produced only modest overall improvement, which was statistically significant for avoidance symptomatology measured by the impact of Events Scale (IOES) and number of intrusions per day recorded by the subject in a log. Symptomatic improvement appeared to generalize from a treated to an untreated experience. Heart rate activation during the first flooding session predicted a decrease in daily number of intrusive combat memories across the therapy. Otherwise, there was little association between extent of emotional processing and therapeutic outcome. The results provide limited support for the notion that mobilization of psychophysiologic arousal during exposure therapy predicts improvement.

Mechanisms behind injecting the combination of nano-clay particles and polymer solution for enhanced oil recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalili Nezhad, Seyyed Shahram; Cheraghian, Goshtasp

2016-08-01

Laboratory investigations and field applications have proved injection of polymer solution to be an effective means to improve oil recovery for reservoirs of medium oil viscosity. The incremental oil produced in this case is the result of an increase in areal and vertical sweep efficiencies. Biopolymers and synthetic polymers are the major categories used in the petroleum industry for specific reasons. Biopolymers like xanthan are limited in their application as they are more susceptible to biodegradation. Synthetic polymers like Hydrolyzed PolyAcrylaMide (HPAM) have a much wider application as they are less susceptible to biodegradation. Furthermore, development of nanotechnology has successfully provided technical and economical viable alternatives for present materials. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of combining clay nanoparticles with polymer solution on oil recovery. This paper includes a history match of both one-dimensional and two-dimensional polymer floods using a three-dimensional numerical model for fluid flow and mass transport. Results indicated that the amount of polymer adsorption decreased when clay nanoparticles were added to the PolyAcrylaMide solution; however, mobility ratio improvement is believed to be the main contributor for the proposed method in order to enhance much oil recovery compared to xanthan flood and HPAM flood.

Mobile Emergency Response Water Treatment Technology Results

EPA Science Inventory

When natural disasters like hurricanes, floods and earthquakes occur, safe drinking water can be compromised, limited or unavailable. Under such situations, communities have emergency response plans. One of many options for providing safe drinking water during emergency situati...

Use of a Smartphone for Collecting Data on River Discharge and Communication of Flood Risk.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pena-Haro, S.; Lüthi, B.; Philippe, T.

2015-12-01

Although many developed countries have well-established systems for river monitoring and flood early warning systems, the population affected in developing countries by flood events is unsettled. Even more, future climate development is likely to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events and therefore bigger impacts on the population can be expected.There are different types of flood forecasting systems, some are based on hydrologic models fed with rainfall predictions and observed river levels. Flood hazard maps are also used to increase preparedness in case of an extreme event, however these maps are static since they do not incorporate daily changing conditions on river stages. However, and especially in developing countries, data on river stages are scarce. Some of the reasons are that traditional fixed monitoring systems do not scale in terms of costs, repair is difficult as well as operation and maintenance, in addition vandalism poses additional challenges. Therefore there is a need of cheaper and easy-to-use systems for collecting information on river stage and discharge. We have developed a mobile device application for determining the water stage and discharge of open-channels (e.g. rivers, artificial channels, irrigation furrows). Via image processing the water level and surface velocity are measured, combining this information with priori knowledge on the channel geometry the discharge is estimated. River stage and discharge measurement via smart phones provides a non-intrusive, accurate and cost-effective monitoring method. No permanent installations, which can be flooded away, are needed. The only requirement is that the field of view contains two reference markers with known scale and with known position relative to the channel geometry, therefore operation and maintenance costs are very low. The other advantage of using smartphones, is that the data collected can be immediately sent via SMS to a central database. This information can be easily gathered for its use within models and redistributed, using the same channels, among interested stakeholders and the community.

Coupling hydrodynamic modeling and empirical measures of bed mobility to assess the risk of redd scour on a large regulated river

Treesearch

Christine L. May; Bonnie S. Pryor; Thomas E. Lisle; Margaret M. Lang

2009-01-01

n order to assess the risk of scour and fill of spawning redds during floods, an understanding of the relations among river discharge, bed mobility, and scour and fill depths in areas of the streambed heavily utilized by spawning salmon is needed. Our approach coupled numerical flow modeling and empirical data from the Trinity River, California, to quantify spatially...

Regional Variation in Gravel Riverbed Mobility, Controlled by Hydrologic Regime and Sediment Supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeiffer, Allison M.; Finnegan, Noah J.

2018-04-01

The frequency and intensity of riverbed mobility are of paramount importance to the inhabitants of river ecosystems as well as to the evolution of bed surface structure. Because sediment supply varies by orders of magnitude across North America, the intensity of bedload transport varies by over an order of magnitude. Climate also varies widely across the continent, yielding a range of flood timing, duration, and intermittency. Together, the differences in sediment supply and hydroclimate result in diverse regimes of bed surface stability. To quantitatively characterize this regional variation, we calculate multidecadal time series of estimated bed surface mobility for 29 rivers using sediment transport equations. We use these data to compare predicted bed mobility between rivers and regions. There are statistically significant regional differences in the (a) exceedance probability of bed-mobilizing flows (W* > 0.002), (b) maximum bed mobility, and (c) number of discrete bed-mobilizing events in a year.

The application of Firefly algorithm in an Adaptive Emergency Evacuation Centre Management (AEECM) for dynamic relocation of flood victims

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ChePa, Noraziah; Hashim, Nor Laily; Yusof, Yuhanis; Hussain, Azham

2016-08-01

Flood evacuation centre is defined as a temporary location or area of people from disaster particularly flood as a rescue or precautionary measure. Gazetted evacuation centres are normally located at secure places which have small chances from being drowned by flood. However, due to extreme flood several evacuation centres in Kelantan were unexpectedly drowned. Currently, there is no study done on proposing a decision support aid to reallocate victims and resources of the evacuation centre when the situation getting worsens. Therefore, this study proposes a decision aid model to be utilized in realizing an adaptive emergency evacuation centre management system. This study undergoes two main phases; development of algorithm and models, and development of a web-based and mobile app. The proposed model operates using Firefly multi-objective optimization algorithm that creates an optimal schedule for the relocation of victims and resources for an evacuation centre. The proposed decision aid model and the adaptive system can be applied in supporting the National Security Council's respond mechanisms for handling disaster management level II (State level) especially in providing better management of the flood evacuating centres.

The non-layering of gravel streambeds under ephemeral flood regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laronne, Jonathan B.; Reid, Ian; Yitshak, Yitshak; Frostick, Lynne E.

1994-07-01

The two-layer format common to perennial streambeds, in which a relatively coarse armour overlies a finer subarmour, develops as a function of both the ingress and subsequent near-surface winnowing of interstitial material and the selective non-entrainment or slower transport velocity of coarse clasts. Ephemeral streams appear to lack such vertical layering or are characterized by weak layer development. Some of this may be due to the degree of mixing associated with the scour-and-fill process. However, continuous monitoring of bedload discharge in the Nahal Yatir in the northern Negev Desert reveals that sediment transport rates are extremely high so that the chance of armour layer development through selective non-entrainment is much reduced. Indeed, a comparison of the bedload and bed material size-distributions confirms a high degree of similarity and hints at equal mobility regardless of clast size. The monitoring programme also indicates that the bed becomes highly mobile at comparatively modest fluid shear, so that practically all floods are associated with high transport rates. Consequently, the winnowing that might be brought about by low transport-rate events does not occur. Even within a single event, winnowing is precluded by the rapid nature of flow recession that is so characteristic of flash-floods. The high degree of bed material mobility is attributable, in part, to the lack of strength that would otherwise be a corollary of armour development. However, it also highlights the divergent nature of the feedback loops that govern the relationship between flow and channel deposit in ephemeral and perennial systems.

Flood Discharge Analysis with Nakayasu Method Using Combination of HEC-RAS Method on Deli River in Medan City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harahap, Rumilla; Jeumpa, Kemala; Hadibroto, Bambang

2018-03-01

The problem in this research is how in the rainy season the water does not overflow, does not occur flood and during the dry season does not occur drought so it can adjust the condition or existence of Deli river which is around Medan city. Deli River floods often occur, either caused by a smaller capacity than the existing discharge, lack of maintenance and drainage and disposal systems that do not fit with the environment, resulting in flood subscriptions every year. The purpose of this research is to know flood discharge at Deli river as Flood control in Medan city. This research is analyzed on several methods such as log Pearson, Gumbel and hydrograph unit, while HEC-RAS method is modeling conducted in analyzing the water profile of the Deli River. Furthermore, the calculation of the periodic flood discharge using the Nakayasu Method. Calculation result at Deli River return period flood discharge 2 years with an area of 14.8 km2 annual flood hydrograph the total is 26.79 m3/sec on the hours at the 4th time. Return period flood discharge 5 years with an area of 14.8 km2 annual flood hydrograph the total is 73,44 m3/sec. While 25 annual return period total flood hydrograph is 146.50 m3/sec. With flood analysis can reduce and minimize the risk of losses and land can be mapped if in the area there is flooding.

Chemical Method to Improve CO{sub 2} Flooding Sweep Efficiency for Oil Recovery Using SPI-CO{sub 2} Gels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burns, Lyle D.

2009-04-14

The problem in CO{sub 2} flooding lies with its higher mobility causing low conformance or sweep efficiency. This is an issue in oilfield applications where an injected fluid or gas used to mobilize and produce the oil in a marginal field has substantially higher mobility (function of viscosity and density and relative permeability) relative to the crude oil promoting fingering and early breakthrough. Conformance is particularly critical in CO{sub 2} oilfield floods where the end result is less oil recovered and substantially higher costs related to the CO{sub 2}. The SPI-CO{sub 2} (here after called “SPI”) gel system is amore » unique silicate based gel system that offers a technically effective solution to the conformance problem with CO{sub 2} floods. This SPI gel system remains a low viscosity fluid until an external initiator (CO{sub 2}) triggers gelation. This is a clear improvement over current technologies where the gels set up as a function of time, regardless of where it is placed in the reservoir. In those current systems, the internal initiator is included in the injected fluid for water shut off applications. In this new research effort, the CO{sub 2} is an external initiator contacted after SPI gel solution placement. This concept ensures in the proper water wet reservoir environment that the SPI gel sets up in the precise high permeability path followed by the CO{sub 2}, therefore improving sweep efficiency to a greater degree than conventional systems. In addition, the final SPI product in commercial quantities is expected to be low cost over the competing systems. This Phase I research effort provided “proof of concept” that SPI gels possess strength and may be formed in a sand pack reducing the permeability to brine and CO{sub 2} flow. This SPI technology is a natural extension of prior R & D and the Phase I effort that together show a high potential for success in a Phase II follow-on project. Carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is a major by-product of hydrocarbon combustion for energy, chemical and fertilizer plants. For example, coal fired power plants emit large amounts of CO{sub 2} in order to produce electrical energy. Carbon dioxide sequestration is gaining attention as concerns mount over possible global climate change caused by rising emissions of greenhouse gases. Removing the CO{sub 2} from the energy generation process would make these plants more environmentally friendly. In addition, CO{sub 2} flooding is an attractive means to enhance oil and natural gas recovery. Capture and use of the CO{sub 2} from these plants for recycling into CO{sub 2} flooding of marginal reservoirs provides a “dual use” opportunity prior to final CO{sub 2} sequestration in the depleted reservoir. Under the right pressure, temperature and oil composition conditions, CO{sub 2} can act as a solvent, cleaning oil trapped in the microscopic pores of the reservoir rock. This miscible process greatly increases the recovery of crude oil from a reservoir compared to recovery normally seen by waterflooding. An Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) project that uses an industrial source of CO{sub 2} that otherwise would be vented to the atmosphere has the added environmental benefit of sequestering the greenhouse gas.« less

Monitoring and evaluation of plant and hydrological controls on arsenic transport across the water sediment interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaffe, P. R.; MacDonald, L. H.; Paull, J.

2009-12-01

Plants and hydrology influence the transport of arsenic in wetlands by changing the dominant redox chemistry in the subsurface, and different plant and hydrological regimes can serve as effective barriers or promoters of metal transport. Inorganic arsenic, especially arsenate, binds to iron oxides in wetlands. In flooded wetland sediments, organic carbon from plants consumes oxygen and promotes reductive iron dissolution, which leads to arsenic release, while plants simultaneously create microoxic regimes around root hairs that oxidize and precipitate iron, promoting arsenic capture. Hydrology influences arsenic mobility by promoting wetting and drying cycles. Such cycles can lead to rapid shifts from anaerobic to aerobic conditions, and vice versa, with lasting impact on the oxidation state of iron and, by extension, the mobility of arsenic. Remediation strategies should take these competing conditions into account, and to help inform these strategies this study examines the chemistry of an industrially contaminated wetland when the above mechanisms aggregate. The study tests whether, in bulk, plants promote iron reduction or oxidation in intermittently flooded or consistently flooded sediments, and how this impacts arsenic mobility. This research uses a novel dialysis-based monitoring technique to examine the macro-properties of arsenic transport at the sediment water interface and at depth. Dialysis-based monitoring allows long-term seasonal trends in anaerobic porewater and allows active hypothesis testing on the influence of plants on redox chemistry. This study finds that plants promote iron reduction and that iron-reducing zones tend to correlate with zones with mobile arsenic. However, one newly reported and important finding of this study is that a brief summer drought that dried and oxidized sediments with a long history of iron-reduction zone served to effectively halt iron reduction for many months, and this corresponded to a lasting decline in dissolved arsenic concentrations during that time. This finding clearly links hydrological controls on sediment chemistry to arsenic mobility. Through mechanisms like this that influences iron, plants and hydrology impact many contaminants and, although focusing on arsenic, the principals uncovered from this detailed research bear real-world implications for forecasting and managing the transport of a variety of contaminants in wetland systems.

Mechanisms of vegetation removal by floods on bars of a heavily managed gravel bed river (The Isere River, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jourdain, Camille; Belleudy, Philippe; Tal, Michal; Malavoi, Jean-René

2016-04-01

In natural alpine gravel bed rivers, floods and their associated bedload transport maintain channels active and free of mature woody vegetation. In managed rivers, where flood regime and sediment supply have been modified by hydroelectric infrastructures and sediment mining, river beds tend to stabilize. As a result, in the recent past, mature vegetation has established on gravel bars of many gravel bed rivers worldwide. This established vegetation increases the risk of flooding by decreasing flow velocity and increasing water levels. In addition, the associated reduction in availability of pioneer habitats characteristic of these environments typically degrades biodiversity. Managing hydrology in a way that would limit vegetation establishment on bars presents an interesting management option. In this context, our study aims at understanding the impacts of floods of varying magnitude on vegetation removal, and identifying and quantifying the underlying mechanisms. Our study site is the Isère River, a heavily managed gravel bed river flowing in the western part of the French Alps. We studied the impact of floods on sediment transport and vegetation survival at the bar scale through field monitoring from 2014 to 2015, focusing on young salicaceous vegetation (<2 yr old). Measurements were made before and after floods. Vegetation was monitored on 16m² plots through repeat photographs. Sediment transport was assessed using painted plots, scour chains, and topographic surveys. Hourly water discharge was obtained from the national gauging network. The hydraulics of monitored floods was characterized using a combination of field measurements and 2D hydraulic modeling: water levels were measured with pressure sensors and Large Scale Particle Velocimetry was used to measure flow velocities. These data were used to calibrate 2D hydrodynamic model using TELEMAC2D. At the reach scale, removal of mature vegetation was assed using a series of historical aerial photographs between 2001 and 2015. Our monitoring period covered a series of floods with recurrence intervals of 2 to 4 times per year, as well as one large flood with a 10 year return period. Only the largest flood, which triggered important bed mobility, partially removed vegetation from bars. Young vegetation removal occurred through four different mechanisms: 1) burial under a thick layer of coarse sediments (> 30cm), 2) uprooting by surface scour, 3) uprooting by a combination of surface scour and sediment deposition resulting in no net topographic change, and 4) lateral erosion of the margins of main and secondary channels. Hydraulic modeling in progress will allow us to determine shear stress and durations associated with each of the four mechanisms of vegetation removal. As for mature vegetation removal at the reach scale, preliminary results indicate that lateral erosion is by far most efficient, in years marked by important floods (return period of at least 2 years). In summary, our study thus far highlights that vegetation removal by floods from bars of the Isere River only occurs when there is important bed mobility, which in this system requires floods with a return period higher than 2 years.

Lattice Boltzmann Simulation of Seismic Mobilization of Residual Oil in Sandstone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, R.; Jiang, F.; Deng, W.

2017-12-01

Seismic stimulation is a promising technology for enhanced oil recovery. However, current mechanism studies are mainly in the single constricted tubes or idealized porous media, and no study has been conducted in real reservoir porous media. We have developed a numerical simulation which uses the lattice Boltzmann method to directly calculate the characteristics of residual oil clusters to quantify seismic mobilization of residual oil in real Berea sandstone in a scale of 400μm x 400μm x 400μm. The residual oil clusters will be firstly obtained by applying the water flooding scheme to the oil-saturated sandstone. Then, we will apply the seismic stimulation to the sandstone by converting the seismic effect to oscillatory inertial force and add to the pore fluids. This oscillatory inertial force causes the mobilization of residual oil by overcoming the capillary force. The response of water and oil to the seismic stimulation will be observed in our simulations. Two seismic oil mobilization mechanisms will be investigated: (1) the passive response of residual oil clusters to the seismic stimulation, and (2) the resonance of oil clusters subject to low frequency seismic stimulation. We will then discuss which mechanism should be the dominant mechanism for the seismic stimulation oil recovery for practical applications.

The impact of a high magnitude flood on metal pollution in a shallow subtropical estuarine embayment.

PubMed

Coates-Marnane, J; Olley, J; Burton, J; Grinham, A

2016-11-01

Drought-breaking floods pose a risk to coastal water quality as sediments, nutrients, and pollutants stored within catchments during periods of low flow are mobilized and delivered to coastal waters within a short period of time. Here we use subtidal surface sediment surveys and sediment cores to explore the effects of the 2011 Brisbane River flood on trace metals zinc (Zn), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), and phosphorus (P) deposition in Moreton Bay, a shallow subtropical bay in eastern Australia. Concentrations of Zn, Cu, and Pb in sediments in central Moreton Bay derived from the 2011 flood were the highest yet observed in the Bay. We suggest flushing of metal rich sediments which had accumulated on the Brisbane River floodplain and in its estuary during the preceding 10 to 40years of low flows to be the primary source of this increase. This highlights the importance of intermittent high magnitude floods in tidally influenced rivers in controlling metal transport to coastal waters in subtropical regions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparing the index-flood and multiple-regression methods using L-moments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malekinezhad, H.; Nachtnebel, H. P.; Klik, A.

In arid and semi-arid regions, the length of records is usually too short to ensure reliable quantile estimates. Comparing index-flood and multiple-regression analyses based on L-moments was the main objective of this study. Factor analysis was applied to determine main influencing variables on flood magnitude. Ward’s cluster and L-moments approaches were applied to several sites in the Namak-Lake basin in central Iran to delineate homogeneous regions based on site characteristics. Homogeneity test was done using L-moments-based measures. Several distributions were fitted to the regional flood data and index-flood and multiple-regression methods as two regional flood frequency methods were compared. The results of factor analysis showed that length of main waterway, compactness coefficient, mean annual precipitation, and mean annual temperature were the main variables affecting flood magnitude. The study area was divided into three regions based on the Ward’s method of clustering approach. The homogeneity test based on L-moments showed that all three regions were acceptably homogeneous. Five distributions were fitted to the annual peak flood data of three homogeneous regions. Using the L-moment ratios and the Z-statistic criteria, GEV distribution was identified as the most robust distribution among five candidate distributions for all the proposed sub-regions of the study area, and in general, it was concluded that the generalised extreme value distribution was the best-fit distribution for every three regions. The relative root mean square error (RRMSE) measure was applied for evaluating the performance of the index-flood and multiple-regression methods in comparison with the curve fitting (plotting position) method. In general, index-flood method gives more reliable estimations for various flood magnitudes of different recurrence intervals. Therefore, this method should be adopted as regional flood frequency method for the study area and the Namak-Lake basin in central Iran. To estimate floods of various return periods for gauged catchments in the study area, the mean annual peak flood of the catchments may be multiplied by corresponding values of the growth factors, and computed using the GEV distribution.

A dimension reduction method for flood compensation operation of multi-reservoir system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, B.; Wu, S.; Fan, Z.

2017-12-01

Multiple reservoirs cooperation compensation operations coping with uncontrolled flood play vital role in real-time flood mitigation. This paper come up with a reservoir flood compensation operation index (ResFCOI), which formed by elements of flood control storage, flood inflow volume, flood transmission time and cooperation operations period, then establish a flood cooperation compensation operations model of multi-reservoir system, according to the ResFCOI to determine a computational order of each reservoir, and lastly the differential evolution algorithm is implemented for computing single reservoir flood compensation optimization in turn, so that a dimension reduction method is formed to reduce computational complexity. Shiguan River Basin with two large reservoirs and an extensive uncontrolled flood area, is used as a case study, results show that (a) reservoirs' flood discharges and the uncontrolled flood are superimposed at Jiangjiaji Station, while the formed flood peak flow is as small as possible; (b) cooperation compensation operations slightly increase in usage of flood storage capacity in reservoirs, when comparing to rule-based operations; (c) it takes 50 seconds in average when computing a cooperation compensation operations scheme. The dimension reduction method to guide flood compensation operations of multi-reservoir system, can make each reservoir adjust its flood discharge strategy dynamically according to the uncontrolled flood magnitude and pattern, so as to mitigate the downstream flood disaster.

Impact of reduced anthropogenic emissions and century flood on the phosphorus stock, concentrations and loads in the Upper Danube

PubMed Central

Zoboli, Ottavia; Viglione, Alberto; Rechberger, Helmut; Zessner, Matthias

2015-01-01

Patterns of changes in the concentration of total and soluble reactive phosphorus (TP, SRP) and suspended sediments at different flow levels from 1991 to 2013 in the Austrian Danube are statistically analyzed and related to point and diffuse emissions, as well as to extreme hydrological events. Annual loads are calculated with three methods and their development in time is examined taking into consideration total emissions and hydrological conditions. The reduction of point discharges achieved during the 1990s was well translated into decreasing TP and SRP baseflow concentrations during the same period, but it did not induce any change in the concentrations at higher flow levels nor in the annual transport of TP loads. A sharp and long-lasting decline in TP concentration, affecting all flow levels, took place after a major flood in 2002. It was still visible during another major flood in 2013, which recorded lower TP concentrations than its predecessor. Such decline could not be linked to changes in point or diffuse emissions. This suggests that, as a result of the flood, the river system experienced a significant depletion of its in-stream phosphorus stock and a reduced mobilization of TP rich sediments afterwards. This hypothesis is corroborated by the decoupling of peak phosphorus loads from peak maximum discharges after 2002. These results are highly relevant for the design of monitoring schemes and for the correct interpretation of water quality data in terms of assessing the performance of environmental management measures. PMID:25747371

Disaster protection of transport infrastructure and mobility using flood risk modeling and geospatial visualization.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-05-01

infrastructure networks are essential to sustain our economy, society and quality of life. Natural disasters cost lives, infrastructure destruction, and economic losses. In 2013 over 28 million people were displaced worldwide by natural disasters wit...

How vulnerable is Texas’ freight infrastructure to extreme weather events? Final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-03-01

The Texas Freight Mobility Plan forecasts significant increases in freight volumes across all transportation modes over the next three decades. An increased frequency of extreme weather events such as prolonged droughts and flash flooding is also exp...

Novel Scientific Visualization Interfaces for Interactive Information Visualization and Sharing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.

2012-12-01

As geoscientists are confronted with increasingly massive datasets from environmental observations to simulations, one of the biggest challenges is having the right tools to gain scientific insight from the data and communicate the understanding to stakeholders. Recent developments in web technologies make it easy to manage, visualize and share large data sets with general public. Novel visualization techniques and dynamic user interfaces allow users to interact with data, and modify the parameters to create custom views of the data to gain insight from simulations and environmental observations. This requires developing new data models and intelligent knowledge discovery techniques to explore and extract information from complex computational simulations or large data repositories. Scientific visualization will be an increasingly important component to build comprehensive environmental information platforms. This presentation provides an overview of the trends and challenges in the field of scientific visualization, and demonstrates information visualization and communication tools in the Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS), developed within the light of these challenges. The IFIS is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to and visualization of flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, and other flood-related data for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS. 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods.

The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

2013-12-01

In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example of five watersheds located in the South of France. References : O. CAYLA : Probability calculation of design floods abd inflows - SPEED. Waterpower 1995, San Francisco, California 1995 CFGB : Design flood determination by the gradex method. Bulletin du Comité Français des Grands Barrages News 96, 18th congress CIGB-ICOLD n2, nov:108, 1994. F. GARAVAGLIA et al. : Introducing a rainfall compound distribution model based on weather patterns subsampling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 951-964, 2010. J. LAVABRE et al. : SHYREG : une méthode pour l'estimation régionale des débits de crue. application aux régions méditerranéennes françaises. Ingénierie EAT, 97-111, 2003. M. MARGOUM : Estimation des crues rares et extrêmes : le modèle AGREGEE. Conceptions et remières validations. PhD, Ecole des Mines de Paris, 1992. R. NAULET et al. : Flood frequency analysis on the Ardèche river using French documentary sources from the two last centuries. Journal of Hydrology, 313:58-78, 2005. E. PAQUET et al. : The SCHADEX method: A semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation, Journal of Hydrology, 495, 23-37, 2013.

A Tree Based Self-routing Scheme for Mobility Support in Wireless Sensor Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Young-Duk; Yang, Yeon-Mo; Kang, Won-Seok; Kim, Jin-Wook; An, Jinung

Recently, WSNs (Wireless Sensor Networks) with mobile robot is a growing technology that offer efficient communication services for anytime and anywhere applications. However, the tiny sensor node has very limited network resources due to its low battery power, low data rate, node mobility, and channel interference constraint between neighbors. Thus, in this paper, we proposed a tree based self-routing protocol for autonomous mobile robots based on beacon mode and implemented in real test-bed environments. The proposed scheme offers beacon based real-time scheduling for reliable association process between parent and child nodes. In addition, it supports smooth handover procedure by reducing flooding overhead of control packets. Throughout the performance evaluation by using a real test-bed system and simulation, we illustrate that our proposed scheme demonstrates promising performance for wireless sensor networks with mobile robots.

Turning the tide: estuarine bars and mutually evasive ebb- and flood-dominated channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleinhans, M. G.; Leuven, J.; van der Vegt, M.; Baar, A. W.; Braat, L.; Bergsma, L.; Weisscher, S.

2015-12-01

Estuaries have perpetually changing and interacting channels and shoals formed by ebb and flood currents, but we lack a descriptive taxonomy and forecasting model. We explore the hypotheses that the great variation of bar and shoal morphologies are explained by similar factors as river bars, namely channel aspect ratio, sediment mobility and limits on bar erosion and chute cutoff caused by cohesive sediment. Here we use remote sensing data and a novel tidal flume setup, the Metronome, to create estuaries or short estuarine reaches from idealized initial conditions, with and without mud supply at the fluvial boundary. Bar width-depth ratios in estuaries are similar to those in braided rivers. In unconfined (cohesionless) experimental estuaries, bar- and channel dynamics increase with increasing river discharge. Ebb- and flood-dominated channels are ubiquitous even in entirely straight sections. The apparent stability of ebb- and flood channels is partly explained by the inherent instability of symmetrical channel bifurcations as in rivers.

Comparison of floods non-stationarity detection methods: an Austrian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, Jose Luis; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Non-stationarities in flood regimes have a huge impact in any mid and long term flood management strategy. In particular the estimation of design floods is very sensitive to any kind of flood non-stationarity, as they should be linked to a return period, concept that can be ill defined in a non-stationary context. Therefore it is crucial when analyzing existent flood time series to detect and, where possible, attribute flood non-stationarities to changing hydroclimatic and land-use processes. This works presents the preliminary results of applying different non-stationarity detection methods on annual peak discharges time series over more than 400 gauging stations in Austria. The kind of non-stationarities analyzed include trends (linear and non-linear), breakpoints, clustering beyond stochastic randomness, and detection of flood rich/flood poor periods. Austria presents a large variety of landscapes, elevations and climates that allow us to interpret the spatial patterns obtained with the non-stationarity detection methods in terms of the dominant flood generation mechanisms.

Remote-sensing-based rapid assessment of flood crop loss to support USDA flooding decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di, L.; Yu, G.; Yang, Z.; Hipple, J.; Shrestha, R.

2016-12-01

Floods often cause significant crop loss in the United States. Timely and objective assessment of flood-related crop loss is very important for crop monitoring and risk management in agricultural and disaster-related decision-making in USDA. Among all flood-related information, crop yield loss is particularly important. Decision on proper mitigation, relief, and monetary compensation relies on it. Currently USDA mostly relies on field surveys to obtain crop loss information and compensate farmers' loss claim. Such methods are expensive, labor intensive, and time consumptive, especially for a large flood that affects a large geographic area. Recent studies have demonstrated that Earth observation (EO) data are useful in post-flood crop loss assessment for a large geographic area objectively, timely, accurately, and cost effectively. There are three stages of flood damage assessment, including rapid assessment, early recovery assessment, and in-depth assessment. EO-based flood assessment methods currently rely on the time-series of vegetation index to assess the yield loss. Such methods are suitable for in-depth assessment but are less suitable for rapid assessment since the after-flood vegetation index time series is not available. This presentation presents a new EO-based method for the rapid assessment of crop yield loss immediately after a flood event to support the USDA flood decision making. The method is based on the historic records of flood severity, flood duration, flood date, crop type, EO-based both before- and immediate-after-flood crop conditions, and corresponding crop yield loss. It hypotheses that a flood of same severity occurring at the same pheonological stage of a crop will cause the similar damage to the crop yield regardless the flood years. With this hypothesis, a regression-based rapid assessment algorithm can be developed by learning from historic records of flood events and corresponding crop yield loss. In this study, historic records of MODIS-based flood and vegetation products and USDA/NASS crop type and crop yield data are used to train the regression-based rapid assessment algorithm. Validation of the rapid assessment algorithm indicates it can predict the yield loss at 90% accuracy, which is accurate enough to support USDA on flood-related quick response and mitigation.

Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency—Bulletin 17C

USGS Publications Warehouse

England, John F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Faber, Beth A.; Stedinger, Jery R.; Thomas, Wilbert O.; Veilleux, Andrea G.; Kiang, Julie E.; Mason, Robert R.

2018-03-29

Accurate estimates of flood frequency and magnitude are a key component of any effective nationwide flood risk management and flood damage abatement program. In addition to accuracy, methods for estimating flood risk must be uniformly and consistently applied because management of the Nation’s water and related land resources is a collaborative effort involving multiple actors including most levels of government and the private sector.Flood frequency guidelines have been published in the United States since 1967, and have undergone periodic revisions. In 1967, the U.S. Water Resources Council presented a coherent approach to flood frequency with Bulletin 15, “A Uniform Technique for Determining Flood Flow Frequencies.” The method it recommended involved fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution to annual peak flow data by the method of moments.The first extension and update of Bulletin 15 was published in 1976 as Bulletin 17, “Guidelines for Determining Flood Flow Frequency” (Guidelines). It extended the Bulletin 15 procedures by introducing methods for dealing with outliers, historical flood information, and regional skew. Bulletin 17A was published the following year to clarify the computation of weighted skew. The next revision of the Bulletin, the Bulletin 17B, provided a host of improvements and new techniques designed to address situations that often arise in practice, including better methods for estimating and using regional skew, weighting station and regional skew, detection of outliers, and use of the conditional probability adjustment.The current version of these Guidelines are presented in this document, denoted Bulletin 17C. It incorporates changes motivated by four of the items listed as “Future Work” in Bulletin 17B and 30 years of post-17B research on flood processes and statistical methods. The updates include: adoption of a generalized representation of flood data that allows for interval and censored data types; a new method, called the Expected Moments Algorithm, which extends the method of moments so that it can accommodate interval data; a generalized approach to identification of low outliers in flood data; and an improved method for computing confidence intervals.Federal agencies are requested to use these Guidelines in all planning activities involving water and related land resources. State, local, and private organizations are encouraged to use these Guidelines to assure uniformity in the flood frequency estimates that all agencies concerned with flood risk should use for Federal planning decisions.This revision is adopted with the knowledge and understanding that review of these procedures will be ongoing. Updated methods will be adopted when warranted by experience and by examination and testing of new techniques.

The integration of scientific knowledge on hydrogeomorphological processes in fluvial risk management strategies through the "Freedom space for rivers" concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massé, Simon; Buffin-Bélanger, Thomas; Biron, Pascale; Ruiz, Julie

2017-04-01

Extensive knowledge and tools developed by hydrogeomorphologists led to the development of new approaches for fluvial hazards mapping that recognize the diversity of river systems and consider the temporal morphodynamic adjustments. Hydrogeomorphological mapping can be integrated into a management approach by considering distinct processes with specific regulation and management practices. The Freedom space for rivers (FSR) concept promotes the integration of multiple processes into a single space by combining the flooding and the mobility spaces as well as the riparian wetlands. Flooding spaces are delimited by a combination of methods, calling for the use of LiDAR elevation models and geomorphological observations related to past flood events. Mobility spaces are defined by the analysis of historical river positions and the interpretation of landforms associated with morphodynamics. In the FSR approach, fluvial processes can naturally operate, thus limiting risk for citizens and infrastructure, while providing a series of ecological services and socioeconomic benefits. Many methodological and institutional challenges arise for the applicability of the FSR concept in the management of rivers. To investigate these challenges, working groups bringing together different water stakeholders were created in collaboration with local watershed organizations and municipal authorities in three contrasting river environments in Québec (Canada). Stakeholders' engagement help identify local concerns regarding FSR management, collectively set up implementation strategies and transfer knowledge gained on river dynamics and fluvial hazards. The collaborative research approach aims to better understand challenges and opportunities for FSR management concepts. Farmers' reluctance to limit their interventions and practices along watercourses, a lack of political will at local level, the absence of government incentives to support local FSR actions, and the institutional challenge to combine both flood and erosion into a single regulatory framework are the main obstacles for the integration of the FSR concepts in management practices. In the three studied territories however, regulatory protection of FSR is feasible in undeveloped or uncultivated land to prevent future development in high-risk areas and to ensure the quality of ecological services associated with floodplains. Raising stakeholders' awareness about natural hazards and hydrogeomorphological processes appears essential in order to incorporate new management practices that aim to give more space to rivers in order to reduce vulnerability and improve the resilience of riparian communities.

Real Time Monitoring of Flooding from Microwave Satellite Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galantowicz, John F.; Frey, Herb (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We have developed a new method for making high-resolution flood extent maps (e.g., at the 30-100 m scale of digital elevation models) in real-time from low-resolution (20-70 km) passive microwave observations. The method builds a "flood-potential" database from elevations and historic flood imagery and uses it to create a flood-extent map consistent with the observed open water fraction. Microwave radiometric measurements are useful for flood monitoring because they sense surface water in clear-or-cloudy conditions and can provide more timely data (e.g., compared to radars) from relatively wide swath widths and an increasing number of available platforms (DMSP, ADEOS-II, Terra, NPOESS, GPM). The chief disadvantages for flood mapping are the radiometers' low resolution and the need for local calibration of the relationship between radiances and open-water fraction. We present our method for transforming microwave sensor-scale open water fraction estimates into high-resolution flood extent maps and describe 30-day flood map sequences generated during a retrospective study of the 1993 Great Midwest Flood. We discuss the method's potential improvement through as yet unimplemented algorithm enhancements and expected advancements in microwave radiometry (e.g., improved resolution and atmospheric correction).

A study of farmers' flood perceptions based on the entropy method: an application from Jianghan Plain, China.

PubMed

Luo, Xiaofeng; Lone, Todd; Jiang, Songying; Li, Rongrong; Berends, Patrick

2016-07-01

Using survey data from 280 farmers in Jianghan Plain, China, this paper establishes an evaluation index system for three dimensions of farmers' flood perceptions and then uses the entropy method to estimate their overall flood perception. Farmers' flood perceptions exhibit the following characteristics: (i) their flood-occurrence, flood-prevention, and overall flood perceptions gradually increase with age, whereas their flood-effects perception gradually decreases; (ii) their flood-occurrence and flood-effects perceptions gradually increase with a higher level of education, whereas their flood-prevention perception gradually decreases and their overall flood perception shows nonlinear change; (iii) flood-occurrence, flood-effects, and overall flood perceptions are higher among farmers who serve in public offices than among those who do not do so; (iv) the flood-occurrence, flood-effects, and overall flood perceptions of farmers who work off-farm are higher than those of farmers who work solely on-farm, contrary to the flood-prevention perception; and (v) the flood-effects and flood-prevention perceptions of male farmers are lower than those of female farmers, but the flood-occurrence and overall flood perceptions of male farmers are higher than those of female farmers. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

The role of particle jamming on the formation and stability of step-pool morphology: insight from a reduced-complexity model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saletti, M.; Molnar, P.; Hassan, M. A.

2017-12-01

Granular processes have been recognized as key drivers in earth surface dynamics, especially in steep landscapes because of the large size of sediment found in channels. In this work we focus on step-pool morphologies, studying the effect of particle jamming on step formation. Starting from the jammed-state hypothesis, we assume that grains generate steps because of particle jamming and those steps are inherently more stable because of additional force chains in the transversal direction. We test this hypothesis with a particle-based reduced-complexity model, CAST2, where sediment is organized in patches and entrainment, transport and deposition of grains depend on flow stage and local topography through simplified phenomenological rules. The model operates with 2 grain sizes: fine grains, that can be mobilized both my large and moderate flows, and coarse grains, mobile only during large floods. First, we identify the minimum set of processes necessary to generate and maintain steps in a numerical channel: (a) occurrence of floods, (b) particle jamming, (c) low sediment supply, and (d) presence of sediment with different entrainment probabilities. Numerical results are compared with field observations collected in different step-pool channels in terms of step density, a variable that captures the proportion of the channel occupied by steps. Not only the longitudinal profiles of numerical channels display step sequences similar to those observed in real step-pool streams, but also the values of step density are very similar when all the processes mentioned before are considered. Moreover, with CAST2 it is possible to run long simulations with repeated flood events, to test the effect of flood frequency on step formation. Numerical results indicate that larger step densities belong to system more frequently perturbed by floods, compared to system having a lower flood frequency. Our results highlight the important interactions between external hydrological forcing and internal geomorphic adjustment (e.g. jamming) on the response of step-pool streams, showing the potential of reduced-complexity models in fluvial geomorphology.

Acquision of Geometrical Data of Small Rivers with AN Unmanned Water Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sardemann, H.; Eltner, A.; Maas, H.-G.

2018-05-01

Rivers with small- and medium-scaled catchments have been increasingly affected by extreme events, i.e. flash floods, in the last years. New methods to describe and predict these events are developed in the interdisciplinary research project EXTRUSO. Flash flood events happen on small temporal and spatial scales, stressing the necessity of high-resolution input data for hydrological and hydrodynamic modelling. Among others, the benefit of high-resolution digital terrain models (DTMs) will be evaluated in the project. This article introduces a boat-based approach for the acquisition of geometrical and morphological data of small rivers and their banks. An unmanned water vehicle (UWV) is used as a multi-sensor platform to collect 3D-point clouds of the riverbanks, as well as bathymetric measurements of water depth and river morphology. The UWV is equipped with a mobile Lidar, a panorama camera, an echo sounder and a positioning unit. Whole (sub-) catchments of small rivers can be digitalized and provided for hydrological modelling when UWV-based and UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) based point clouds are fused.

Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

2015-12-01

Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

Predicting geomorphically-induced flood risk for the Nepalese Terai communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dingle, Elizabeth; Creed, Maggie; Attal, Mikael; Sinclair, Hugh; Mudd, Simon; Borthwick, Alistair; Dugar, Sumit; Brown, Sarah

2017-04-01

Rivers sourced from the Himalaya irrigate the Indo-Gangetic Plain via major river networks that support 10% of the global population. However, many of these rivers are also the source of devastating floods. During the 2014 Karnali River floods in west Nepal, the Karnali rose to around 16 m at Chisapani (where it enters the Indo-Gangetic Plain), 1 m higher than the previous record in 1983; the return interval for this event was estimated to be 1000 years. Flood risk may currently be underestimated in this region, primarily because changes to the channel bed are not included when identifying areas at risk of flooding from events of varying recurrence intervals. Our observations in the field, corroborated by satellite imagery, show that river beds are highly mobile and constantly evolve through each monsoon. Increased bed levels due to sediment aggradation decreases the capacity of the river, increasing significantly the risk of devastating flood events; we refer to these as 'geomorphically-induced floods'. Major, short-lived episodes of sediment accumulation in channels are caused by stochastic variability in sediment flux generated by storms, earthquakes and glacial outburst floods from upstream parts of the catchment. Here, we generate a field-calibrated, geomorphic flood risk model for varying upstream scenarios, and predict changing flood risk for the Karnali River. A numerical model is used to carry out a sensitivity analysis of changes in channel geometry (particularly aggradation or degradation) based on realistic flood scenarios. In these scenarios, water and sediment discharge are varied within a range of plausible values, up to extreme sediment and water fluxes caused by widespread landsliding and/or intense monsoon precipitation based on existing records. The results of this sensitivity analysis will be used to inform flood hazard maps of the Karnali River floodplain and assess the vulnerability of the populations in the region.

The Web 2.0 concept of urban disaster information in Taipei city: Mobile application development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Yuan-Fan; Chan, Chun-Hsiang; Wang, Han; Pan, Yun-Xing; Lin, Gine-Jie

2014-05-01

In recent years, due to the global warming and global climate anomaly, more and more disasters appear such as flood and debris flow. The disasters always cause loss of life and property. However, the cross-aged invention, smart phone, makes our life more conveniently for delivering lots of information instantly. This study uses Eclipse as the development platform, and designs the urban disaster information mobile Application (APP) which is for debris flow and flood in Taipei city area. In this study, an urban disaster information APP, Taipei Let You Know, has successfully developed under android development environment, combined disaster indicators and the warming value of disaster. In order to ameliorate official information delay problem, this APP not only shows official information, but also offers a WEB 2.0 platform for public users to upload all disaster information instantly. As the result, the losses of life and property can decrease, and the disaster information delivery can be faster and more accurate by utilizing this APP in the future.

Can Concentration - Discharge Relationships Diagnose Material Source During Extreme Events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karwan, D. L.; Godsey, S.; Rose, L.

2017-12-01

Floods can carry >90% of the basin material exported in a given year as well as alter flow pathways and material sources. In turn, sediment and solute fluxes can increase flood damages and negatively impact water quality and integrate physical and chemical weathering of landscapes and channels. Concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships are used to both describe export patterns as well as compute them. Metrics for describing C-Q patterns and inferring their controls are vulnerable to infrequent sampling that affects how C-Q relationships are interpolated and interpreted. C-Q relationships are typically evaluated from multiple samples, but because hydrological extremes are rare, data are often unavailable for extreme events. Because solute and sediment C-Q relationships likely respond to changes in hydrologic extremes in different ways, there is a pressing need to define their behavior under extreme conditions, including how to properly sample to capture these patterns. In the absence of such knowledge, improving load estimates in extreme floods will likely remain difficult. Here we explore the use of C-Q relationships to determine when an event alters a watershed system such that it enters a new material source/transport regime. We focus on watersheds with sediment and discharge time series include low-frequency and/or extreme events. For example, we compare solute and sediment patterns in White Clay Creek in southeastern Pennsylvania across a range of flows inclusive of multiple hurricanes for which we have ample ancillary hydrochemical data. TSS is consistently mobilized during high flow events, even during extreme floods associated with hurricanes, and sediment fingerprinting indicates different sediment sources, including in-channel remobilization and landscape erosion, are active at different times. In other words, TSS mobilization in C-Q space is not sensitive to the source of material being mobilized. Unlike sediments, weathering solutes in this watershed tend to exhibit a relatively chemostatic C-Q pattern, except during the runoff-dominated Hurricane Irene, when they exhibit a diluting C-Q pattern. Finally, we summarize the vulnerability of these observations to shifts in sampling effort to highlight the utility and limitations of C-Q-derived export patterns.

Automatic domain updating technique for improving computational efficiency of 2-D flood-inundation simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, T.; Tachikawa, Y.; Ichikawa, Y.; Yorozu, K.

2017-12-01

Flood is one of the most hazardous disasters and causes serious damage to people and property around the world. To prevent/mitigate flood damage through early warning system and/or river management planning, numerical modelling of flood-inundation processes is essential. In a literature, flood-inundation models have been extensively developed and improved to achieve flood flow simulation with complex topography at high resolution. With increasing demands on flood-inundation modelling, its computational burden is now one of the key issues. Improvements of computational efficiency of full shallow water equations are made from various perspectives such as approximations of the momentum equations, parallelization technique, and coarsening approaches. To support these techniques and more improve the computational efficiency of flood-inundation simulations, this study proposes an Automatic Domain Updating (ADU) method of 2-D flood-inundation simulation. The ADU method traces the wet and dry interface and automatically updates the simulation domain in response to the progress and recession of flood propagation. The updating algorithm is as follow: first, to register the simulation cells potentially flooded at initial stage (such as floodplains nearby river channels), and then if a registered cell is flooded, to register its surrounding cells. The time for this additional process is saved by checking only cells at wet and dry interface. The computation time is reduced by skipping the processing time of non-flooded area. This algorithm is easily applied to any types of 2-D flood inundation models. The proposed ADU method is implemented to 2-D local inertial equations for the Yodo River basin, Japan. Case studies for two flood events show that the simulation is finished within two to 10 times smaller time showing the same result as that without the ADU method.

Coupled prediction of flash flood response and debris flow occurrence: Application on an alpine extreme flood event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destro, Elisa; Amponsah, William; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Marchi, Lorenzo; Marra, Francesco; Zoccatelli, Davide; Borga, Marco

2018-03-01

The concurrence of flash floods and debris flows is of particular concern, because it may amplify the hazard corresponding to the individual generative processes. This paper presents a coupled modelling framework for the predictions of flash flood response and of the occurrence of debris flows initiated by channel bed mobilization. The framework combines a spatially distributed flash flood response model and a debris flow initiation model to define a threshold value for the peak flow which permits identification of channelized debris flow initiation. The threshold is defined over the channel network as a function of the upslope area and of the local channel bed slope, and it is based on assumptions concerning the properties of the channel bed material and of the morphology of the channel network. The model is validated using data from an extreme rainstorm that impacted the 140 km2 Vizze basin in the Eastern Italian Alps on August 4-5, 2012. The results show that the proposed methodology has improved skill in identifying the catchments where debris-flows are triggered, compared to the use of simpler thresholds based on rainfall properties.

Direct trust-based security scheme for RREQ flooding attack in mobile ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sunil; Dutta, Kamlesh

2017-06-01

The routing algorithms in MANETs exhibit distributed and cooperative behaviour which makes them easy target for denial of service (DoS) attacks. RREQ flooding attack is a flooding-type DoS attack in context to Ad hoc On Demand Distance Vector (AODV) routing protocol, where the attacker broadcasts massive amount of bogus Route Request (RREQ) packets to set up the route with the non-existent or existent destination in the network. This paper presents direct trust-based security scheme to detect and mitigate the impact of RREQ flooding attack on the network, in which, every node evaluates the trust degree value of its neighbours through analysing the frequency of RREQ packets originated by them over a short period of time. Taking the node's trust degree value as the input, the proposed scheme is smoothly extended for suppressing the surplus RREQ and bogus RREQ flooding packets at one-hop neighbours during the route discovery process. This scheme distinguishes itself from existing techniques by not directly blocking the service of a normal node due to increased amount of RREQ packets in some unusual conditions. The results obtained throughout the simulation experiments clearly show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed defensive scheme.

Floods of April 1979, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edelen, G.W.; Wilson, K.V.; Harkins, J.R.; Miller, J.F.; Chin, E.H.

1986-01-01

A major storm April 11-13, 1979, following a series of storms in March and April, brought large amounts of rainfall over southeastern United States. Heaviest rain fell over north-central Mississippi and Alabama. A maximum of 21.5 inches was observed at Louisville, 14 SE, Mississippi. Floods in Mississippi and Alabama were the maximum of record at 60 streamflow gaging stations in the Coosa, Alabama, Tombigbee, Chickasawhay, Pearl, and Big Black River basins. On the Pearl River, peak discharges at main stem gaging stations generally approached or exceeded those of the great flood of 1874, and recurrence intervals generally were greater than 100 years. Nine lives were reported lost. Estimated damages totaled nearly $400 million. Seventeen thousand people were driven from their homes in Jackson, Mississippi. This report presents analyses of the meterological settings of the storms, summaries of flood stages and discharges at 221 streamflow gaging stations, stages and contents of 10 reservoirs, flood-crest stages and hydrograph data consisting of gage height, discharge, and accumulated runoff at selected times, at 46 gaging stations, groundwater fluctuations in 11 observation wells, and water salinity and temperature at 22 sites along the Intracoastal Waterway in Mobile Bay. (USGS)

Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding From Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana, September 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGee, Benton D.; Goree, Burl B.; Tollett, Roland W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

2008-01-01

On August 29-31, 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a mobile monitoring network consisting of 124 pressure transducers (sensors) (figs. 1, 2) at 80 sites over an area of about 4,200 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall in southeastern Louisiana on September 1. One-hundred twenty-one sensors from 61 sites (fig. 3) were recovered. Thirty-seven sites from which sensors were recovered were in the New Orleans area, and the remaining 24 sites were distributed throughout southeastern Louisiana. Sites were categorized as surge (21), riverine flooding (18), anthropogenic (affected by the operation of gates or pumps) (17), or mixed/uncertain on the basis of field observations and the appearance of the water-level data (5).

Estimating flood hydrographs and volumes for Alabama streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olin, D.A.; Atkins, J.B.

1988-01-01

The hydraulic design of highway drainage structures involves an evaluation of the effect of the proposed highway structures on lives, property, and stream stability. Flood hydrographs and associated flood volumes are useful tools in evaluating these effects. For design purposes, the Alabama Highway Department needs information on flood hydrographs and volumes associated with flood peaks of specific recurrence intervals (design floods) at proposed or existing bridge crossings. This report will provide the engineer with a method to estimate flood hydrographs, volumes, and lagtimes for rural and urban streams in Alabama with drainage areas less than 500 sq mi. Existing computer programs and methods to estimate flood hydrographs and volumes for ungaged streams have been developed in Georgia. These computer programs and methods were applied to streams in Alabama. The report gives detailed instructions on how to estimate flood hydrographs for ungaged rural or urban streams in Alabama with drainage areas less than 500 sq mi, without significant in-channel storage or regulations. (USGS)

Robust flood area detection using a L-band synthetic aperture radar: Preliminary application for Florida, the U.S. affected by Hurricane Irma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagai, H.; Ohki, M.; Abe, T.

2017-12-01

Urgent crisis response for a hurricane-induced flood needs urgent providing of a flood map covering a broad region. However, there is no standard threshold values for automatic flood identification from pre-and-post images obtained by satellite-based synthetic aperture radars (SARs). This problem could hamper prompt data providing for operational uses. Furthermore, one pre-flood SAR image does not always represent potential water surfaces and river flows especially in tropical flat lands which are greatly influenced by seasonal precipitation cycle. We are, therefore, developing a new method of flood mapping using PALSAR-2, an L-band SAR, which is less affected by temporal surface changes. Specifically, a mean-value image and a standard-deviation image are calculated from a series of pre-flood SAR images. It is combined with a post-flood SAR image to obtain normalized backscatter amplitude difference (NoBADi), with which a difference between a post-flood image and a mean-value image is divided by a standard-deviation image to emphasize anomalous water extents. Flooding areas are then automatically obtained from the NoBADi images as lower-value pixels avoiding potential water surfaces. We applied this method to PALSAR-2 images acquired on Sept. 8, 10, and 12, 2017, covering flooding areas in a central region of Dominican Republic and west Florida, the U.S. affected by Hurricane Irma. The output flooding outlines are validated with flooding areas manually delineated from high-resolution optical satellite images, resulting in higher consistency and less uncertainty than previous methods (i.e., a simple pre-and-post flood difference and pre-and-post coherence changes). The NoBADi method has a great potential to obtain a reliable flood map for future flood hazards, not hampered by cloud cover, seasonal surface changes, and "casual" thresholds in the flood identification process.

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been developed and widely applied, but there is still room for improvements. Future research in the context of Bayesian flood forecasting should be on assimilation of various sources of newly available information and improvement of predictive performance assessment methods.

44 CFR 9.5 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... essential to save lives and protect property and public health and safety performed pursuant to sections 305..., purchase of mobile homes and provision of structures as minimum protective measures; (ii) Personal property... property acquisition under section 1362 of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, as amended, and the...

Integrating heterogeneous earth observation data for assessment of high-resolution inundation boundaries generated during flood emergencies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sava, E.; Cervone, G.; Kalyanapu, A. J.; Sampson, K. M.

2017-12-01

The increasing trend in flooding events, paired with rapid urbanization and an aging infrastructure is projected to enhance the risk of catastrophic losses and increase the frequency of both flash and large area floods. During such events, it is critical for decision makers and emergency responders to have access to timely actionable knowledge regarding preparedness, emergency response, and recovery before, during and after a disaster. Large volumes of data sets derived from sophisticated sensors, mobile phones, and social media feeds are increasingly being used to improve citizen services and provide clues to the best way to respond to emergencies through the use of visualization and GIS mapping. Such data, coupled with recent advancements in data fusion techniques of remote sensing with near real time heterogeneous datasets have allowed decision makers to more efficiently extract precise and relevant knowledge and better understand how damage caused by disasters have real time effects on urban population. This research assesses the feasibility of integrating multiple sources of contributed data into hydrodynamic models for flood inundation simulation and estimating damage assessment. It integrates multiple sources of high-resolution physiographic data such as satellite remote sensing imagery coupled with non-authoritative data such as Civil Air Patrol (CAP) and `during-event' social media observations of flood inundation in order to improve the identification of flood mapping. The goal is to augment remote sensing imagery with new open-source datasets to generate flood extend maps at higher temporal and spatial resolution. The proposed methodology is applied on two test cases, relative to the 2013 Boulder Colorado flood and the 2015 floods in Texas.

Energy Efficient Probabilistic Broadcasting for Mobile Ad-Hoc Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sumit; Mehfuz, Shabana

2017-06-01

In mobile ad-hoc network (MANETs) flooding method is used for broadcasting route request (RREQ) packet from one node to another node for route discovery. This is the simplest method of broadcasting of RREQ packets but it often results in broadcast storm problem, originating collisions and congestion of packets in the network. A probabilistic broadcasting is one of the widely used broadcasting scheme for route discovery in MANETs and provides solution for broadcasting storm problem. But it does not consider limited energy of the battery of the nodes. In this paper, a new energy efficient probabilistic broadcasting (EEPB) is proposed in which probability of broadcasting RREQs is calculated with respect to remaining energy of nodes. The analysis of simulation results clearly indicate that an EEPB route discovery scheme in ad-hoc on demand distance vector (AODV) can increase the network lifetime with a decrease in the average power consumption and RREQ packet overhead. It also decreases the number of dropped packets in the network, in comparison to other EEPB schemes like energy constraint gossip (ECG), energy aware gossip (EAG), energy based gossip (EBG) and network lifetime through energy efficient broadcast gossip (NEBG).

Long-term changes in community assembly, resistance, and resilience following experimental floods.

PubMed

Robinson, Christopher T

2012-10-01

This study examined the long-term changes in community assembly, resistance, and resilience of macroinvertebrates following 10 years of experimental floods in a flow regulated river. Physico-chemistry, macroinvertebrates, and periphyton biomass were monitored before and sequentially after each of 22 floods, and drift/seston was collected during six separate floods over the study period. The floods reduced the density and taxon richness of macroinvertebrates, and a nonmetric dimensional scaling (NMDS) analysis distinguished temporal shifts in community assembly. Resistance (measured as the relative lack of loss in density) tofloods varied among taxa, and the abundance of resistant taxa was related to the temporal changes in community assembly. Community resistance was inversely related to flood magnitude with all larger floods (> 25 m3/s, > 16-fold over baseflow) reducing densities by > 75% regardless of flood year, whereas smaller floods (< 20 m3/s) reduced taxon richness approximately twofold less than larger floods. No relationship was found between flood magnitude and the relative loss in periphyton biomass. Resilience was defined as the recovery slope (positive slope of a parameter with time following each flood) and was unrelated to shifts in community assembly or resistance. Macroinvertebrate drift and seston demonstrated hysteresis (i.e., a temporal response in parameter quantity with change in discharge) during each flood, although larger floods typically had two peaks in both parameters. The first peak was a response to the initial increases in flow, whereas the second peak was associated with streambed disturbance (substrate mobility) and side-slope failure causing increased scour. Drift density was 3-9 times greater and that of seston 3-30 times greater during larger floods than smaller floods. These results demonstrate temporal shifts in macroinvertebrate community assembly toward a pre-dam assemblage following sequential floods in this flow regulated river, thus confirming the ecological role of habitat filtering in organism distribution and abundance. Community resistance and resilience were unrelated to shifts in community assembly, suggesting that they are mostly evolutionary properties of ecosystems as populations adapt to changing environmental (disturbance regimes) and biotic (novel colonists) conditions. As these systems show behaviors similar to dispersal-limited ecosystems, a long-term perspective is required for management actions targeted toward regulated and fragmented rivers.

A method for mapping flood hazard along roads.

PubMed

Kalantari, Zahra; Nickman, Alireza; Lyon, Steve W; Olofsson, Bo; Folkeson, Lennart

2014-01-15

A method was developed for estimating and mapping flood hazard probability along roads using road and catchment characteristics as physical catchment descriptors (PCDs). The method uses a Geographic Information System (GIS) to derive candidate PCDs and then identifies those PCDs that significantly predict road flooding using a statistical modelling approach. The method thus allows flood hazards to be estimated and also provides insights into the relative roles of landscape characteristics in determining road-related flood hazards. The method was applied to an area in western Sweden where severe road flooding had occurred during an intense rain event as a case study to demonstrate its utility. The results suggest that for this case study area three categories of PCDs are useful for prediction of critical spots prone to flooding along roads: i) topography, ii) soil type, and iii) land use. The main drivers among the PCDs considered were a topographical wetness index, road density in the catchment, soil properties in the catchment (mainly the amount of gravel substrate) and local channel slope at the site of a road-stream intersection. These can be proposed as strong indicators for predicting the flood probability in ungauged river basins in this region, but some care is needed in generalising the case study results other potential factors are also likely to influence the flood hazard probability. Overall, the method proposed represents a straightforward and consistent way to estimate flooding hazards to inform both the planning of future roadways and the maintenance of existing roadways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Use of Flood Seasonality in Pooling-Group Formation and Quantile Estimation: An Application in Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Bell, Victoria; Stewart, Elizabeth

2018-02-01

Regional flood frequency analysis is one of the most commonly applied methods for estimating extreme flood events at ungauged sites or locations with short measurement records. It is based on: (i) the definition of a homogeneous group (pooling-group) of catchments, and on (ii) the use of the pooling-group data to estimate flood quantiles. Although many methods to define a pooling-group (pooling schemes, PS) are based on catchment physiographic similarity measures, in the last decade methods based on flood seasonality similarity have been contemplated. In this paper, two seasonality-based PS are proposed and tested both in terms of the homogeneity of the pooling-groups they generate and in terms of the accuracy in estimating extreme flood events. The method has been applied in 420 catchments in Great Britain (considered as both gauged and ungauged) and compared against the current Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) PS. Results for gauged sites show that, compared to the current PS, the seasonality-based PS performs better both in terms of homogeneity of the pooling-group and in terms of the accuracy of flood quantile estimates. For ungauged locations, a national-scale hydrological model has been used for the first time to quantify flood seasonality. Results show that in 75% of the tested locations the seasonality-based PS provides an improvement in the accuracy of the flood quantile estimates. The remaining 25% were located in highly urbanized, groundwater-dependent catchments. The promising results support the aspiration that large-scale hydrological models complement traditional methods for estimating design floods.

A Review of Flood-Related Storage and Remobilization of Heavy Metal Pollutants in River Systems.

PubMed

Ciszewski, Dariusz; Grygar, Tomáš Matys

Recently observed rapid climate changes have focused the attention of researchers and river managers on the possible effects of increased flooding frequency on the mobilization and redistribution of historical pollutants within some river systems. This text summarizes regularities in the flood-related transport, channel-to-floodplain transfer, and storage and remobilization of heavy metals, which are the most persistent environmental pollutants in river systems. Metal-dispersal processes are essentially much more variable in alluvia than in soils of non-inundated areas due to the effects of flood-sediment sorting and the mixing of pollutants with grains of different origins in a catchment, resulting in changes of one to two orders of magnitude in metal content over distances of centimetres. Furthermore, metal remobilization can be more intensive in alluvia than in soils as a result of bank erosion, prolonged floodplain inundation associated with reducing conditions alternating with oxygen-driven processes of dry periods and frequent water-table fluctuations, which affect the distribution of metals at low-lying strata. Moreover, metal storage and remobilization are controlled by river channelization, but their influence depends on the period and extent of the engineering works. Generally, artificial structures such as groynes, dams or cut-off channels performed before pollution periods favour the entrapment of polluted sediments, whereas the floodplains of lined river channels that adjust to new, post-channelization hydraulic conditions become a permanent sink for fine polluted sediments, which accumulate solely during overbank flows. Metal mobilization in such floodplains takes place only by slow leaching, and their sediments, which accrete at a moderate rate, are the best archives of the catchment pollution with heavy metals.

Refining the site conceptual model at a former uranium mill site in Riverton, Wyoming, USA

DOE PAGES

Dam, William; Campbell, Sam; Johnson, Ray; ...

2015-07-07

Milling activities at a former uranium mill site near Riverton, Wyoming, USA, contaminated the shallow groundwater beneath and downgradient of the site. Although the mill operated for <6 years (1958-1963), its impact remains an environmental liability. Groundwater modeling predicted that contaminant concentrations were declining steadily, which confirmed the conceptual site model (CSM). However, local flooding in 2010 mobilized contaminants that migrated downgradient from the Riverton site and resulted in a dramatic increase in groundwater contaminant concentrations. This observation indicated that the original CSM was inadequate to explain site conditions and needed to be refined. In response to the new observationsmore » after the flood, a collaborative investigation to better understand site conditions and processes commenced. This investigation included installing 103 boreholes to collect soil and groundwater samples, sampling and analysis of evaporite minerals along the bank of the Little Wind River, an analysis of evaportranspiration in the shallow aquifer, and sampling naturally organic-rich sediments near groundwater discharge areas. The enhanced characterization revealed that the existing CSM did not account for high uranium concentrations in groundwater remaining on the former mill site and groundwater plume stagnation near the Little Wind River. Observations from the flood and subsequent investigations indicate that additional characterization is still needed to continue refining the CSM and determine the viability of the natural flushing compliance strategy. Additional sampling, analysis, and testing of soil and groundwater are necessary to investigate secondary contaminant sources, mobilization of contaminants during floods, geochemical processes, contaminant plume stagnation, distribution of evaporite minerals and organic-rich sediments, and mechanisms and rates of contaminant transfer from soil to groundwater. Future data collection will be used to continually revise the CSM and evaluate the compliance strategy at the site.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dam, William; Campbell, Sam; Johnson, Ray

Milling activities at a former uranium mill site near Riverton, Wyoming, USA, contaminated the shallow groundwater beneath and downgradient of the site. Although the mill operated for <6 years (1958-1963), its impact remains an environmental liability. Groundwater modeling predicted that contaminant concentrations were declining steadily, which confirmed the conceptual site model (CSM). However, local flooding in 2010 mobilized contaminants that migrated downgradient from the Riverton site and resulted in a dramatic increase in groundwater contaminant concentrations. This observation indicated that the original CSM was inadequate to explain site conditions and needed to be refined. In response to the new observationsmore » after the flood, a collaborative investigation to better understand site conditions and processes commenced. This investigation included installing 103 boreholes to collect soil and groundwater samples, sampling and analysis of evaporite minerals along the bank of the Little Wind River, an analysis of evaportranspiration in the shallow aquifer, and sampling naturally organic-rich sediments near groundwater discharge areas. The enhanced characterization revealed that the existing CSM did not account for high uranium concentrations in groundwater remaining on the former mill site and groundwater plume stagnation near the Little Wind River. Observations from the flood and subsequent investigations indicate that additional characterization is still needed to continue refining the CSM and determine the viability of the natural flushing compliance strategy. Additional sampling, analysis, and testing of soil and groundwater are necessary to investigate secondary contaminant sources, mobilization of contaminants during floods, geochemical processes, contaminant plume stagnation, distribution of evaporite minerals and organic-rich sediments, and mechanisms and rates of contaminant transfer from soil to groundwater. Future data collection will be used to continually revise the CSM and evaluate the compliance strategy at the site.« less

Flood Extent Mapping for Namibia Using Change Detection and Thresholding with SAR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Long, Stephanie; Fatoyinbo, Temilola E.; Policelli, Frederick

2014-01-01

A new method for flood detection change detection and thresholding (CDAT) was used with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to delineate the extent of flooding for the Chobe floodplain in the Caprivi region of Namibia. This region experiences annual seasonal flooding and has seen a recent renewal of severe flooding after a long dry period in the 1990s. Flooding in this area has caused loss of life and livelihoods for the surrounding communities and has caught the attention of disaster relief agencies. There is a need for flood extent mapping techniques that can be used to process images quickly, providing near real-time flooding information to relief agencies. ENVISAT/ASAR and Radarsat-2 images were acquired for several flooding seasons from February 2008 to March 2013. The CDAT method was used to determine flooding from these images and includes the use of image subtraction, decision based classification with threshold values, and segmentation of SAR images. The total extent of flooding determined for 2009, 2011 and 2012 was about 542 km2, 720 km2, and 673 km2 respectively. Pixels determined to be flooded in vegetation were typically <0.5 % of the entire scene, with the exception of 2009 where the detection of flooding in vegetation was much greater (almost one third of the total flooded area). The time to maximum flooding for the 2013 flood season was determined to be about 27 days. Landsat water classification was used to compare the results from the new CDAT with SAR method; the results show good spatial agreement with Landsat scenes.

1976 Big Thompson Flood, Colorado - Thirty Years Later

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, Robert D.; Costa, John E.

2006-01-01

In the early evening of Saturday, July 31, 1976, a large stationary thunderstorm released as much as 7.5 inches of rainfall in about an hour (about 12 inches in a few hours) in the middle reaches of the Big Thompson River Basin and to a lesser extent in parts of the Cache la Poudre River Basin. In steep mountain terrain with thin or no soil, this large amount of rainfall in such a short period of time produced a flash flood that caught residents and tourists by surprise. The sudden flood that churned down the narrow Big Thompson Canyon scoured the river channel that night, caused over $35 million in damages (1977 dollars) to 418 homes and businesses, many mobile homes, 438 automobiles, numerous bridges, paved and unpaved roads, power and telephone lines, and many other structures. The tragedy claimed the lives of 144 people, including two law enforcement officers trying to evacuate people in danger, and there were 250 reported injuries. Scores of other people narrowly escaped with their lives. More than 800 people were evacuated by helicopter the following morning. This fact sheet presents a summary of the hydrologic conditions of the 1976 flood, describes some of the advances in U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) flood science as a consequence of this disaster, and provides a reminder that extreme floods like the 1976 Big Thompson flood have occurred in other locations in Colorado in the past and will occur again.

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to drive urban expansion based on numerous policies visions to mitigate future flood risk along the Meuse River. In particular, we assess the impacts on future flood risk of the prohibition of urban development in high and/or medium flood hazard zones. Acknowledgements The research was funded through the ARC grant for Concerted Research Actions, financed by the Wallonia-Brussels Federation.

38 CFR 36.4701 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... political subdivision of a State that has zoning and building code jurisdiction over a particular area having special flood hazards. (e) Designated loan means a loan secured by a building or mobile home that... of Veterans Affairs. (c) Building means a walled and roofed structure, other than a gas or liquid...

38 CFR 36.4701 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... political subdivision of a State that has zoning and building code jurisdiction over a particular area having special flood hazards. (e) Designated loan means a loan secured by a building or mobile home that... of Veterans Affairs. (c) Building means a walled and roofed structure, other than a gas or liquid...

38 CFR 36.4701 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... political subdivision of a State that has zoning and building code jurisdiction over a particular area having special flood hazards. (e) Designated loan means a loan secured by a building or mobile home that... of Veterans Affairs. (c) Building means a walled and roofed structure, other than a gas or liquid...

38 CFR 36.4701 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... political subdivision of a State that has zoning and building code jurisdiction over a particular area having special flood hazards. (e) Designated loan means a loan secured by a building or mobile home that... of Veterans Affairs. (c) Building means a walled and roofed structure, other than a gas or liquid...

12 CFR 572.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... zoning and building code jurisdiction over a particular area having special flood hazards. (e) Designated loan means a loan secured by a building or mobile home that is located or to be located in a special...) Building means a walled and roofed structure, other than a gas or liquid storage tank, that is principally...

38 CFR 36.4707 - Determination fees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Determination fees. 36...) LOAN GUARANTY Sale of Loans, Guarantee of Payment, and Flood Insurance § 36.4707 Determination fees. (a... a reasonable fee for determining whether the building or mobile home securing the loan is located or...

Evaluation of Contractor Quality Control of Built-Up Roofing.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-10-01

flood coat Mnd surfacing applied. 1144 - -- , -. .. - -. .. . J - - - - .- o 7. APLICATION OF ROOFrNG. 7.1. GKNERA REUIZNTS. The entire roofing...ATTN: Chief, HNDED-M USA-WES 39180 Mobile 36628 ATTN: Chief, HNDED-SR ATTN: C/Structures ATTN: Chief, SA14EN-D Lower Mississippi 39180 ATTN: Soils

Social Data Analytics Using Tensors and Sparse Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Miao

2014-01-01

The development of internet and mobile technologies is driving an earthshaking social media revolution. They bring the internet world a huge amount of social media content, such as images, videos, comments, etc. Those massive media content and complicate social structures require the analytic expertise to transform those flood of information into…

Modeling urban coastal flood severity from crowd-sourced flood reports using Poisson regression and Random Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

2018-04-01

Sea level rise has already caused more frequent and severe coastal flooding and this trend will likely continue. Flood prediction is an essential part of a coastal city's capacity to adapt to and mitigate this growing problem. Complex coastal urban hydrological systems however, do not always lend themselves easily to physically-based flood prediction approaches. This paper presents a method for using a data-driven approach to estimate flood severity in an urban coastal setting using crowd-sourced data, a non-traditional but growing data source, along with environmental observation data. Two data-driven models, Poisson regression and Random Forest regression, are trained to predict the number of flood reports per storm event as a proxy for flood severity, given extensive environmental data (i.e., rainfall, tide, groundwater table level, and wind conditions) as input. The method is demonstrated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 to October 2016. Quality-controlled, crowd-sourced street flooding reports ranging from 1 to 159 per storm event for 45 storm events are used to train and evaluate the models. Random Forest performed better than Poisson regression at predicting the number of flood reports and had a lower false negative rate. From the Random Forest model, total cumulative rainfall was by far the most dominant input variable in predicting flood severity, followed by low tide and lower low tide. These methods serve as a first step toward using data-driven methods for spatially and temporally detailed coastal urban flood prediction.

Rural livelihoods and household adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motsholapheko, M. R.; Kgathi, D. L.; Vanderpost, C.

Adaptation to flooding is now widely adopted as an appropriate policy option since flood mitigation measures largely exceed the capability of most developing countries. In wetlands, such as the Okavango Delta, adaptation is more appropriate as these systems serve as natural flood control mechanisms. The Okavango Delta system is subject to annual variability in flooding with extreme floods resulting in adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. This study therefore seeks to improve the general understanding of rural household livelihood adaptation to extreme flooding in the Okavango Delta. Specific objectives are: (1) to assess household access to forms of capital necessary for enhanced capacity to adapt, (2) to assess the impacts of extreme flooding on household livelihoods, and (3) to identify and assess household livelihood responses to extreme flooding. The study uses the sustainable livelihood and the socio-ecological frameworks to analyse the livelihood patterns and resilience to extreme flooding. Results from a survey of 623 households in five villages, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and review of literature, indicate that access to natural capital was generally high, but low for financial, physical, human and social capital. Households mainly relied on farm-based livelihood activities, some non-farm activities, limited rural trade and public transfers. In 2004 and 2009, extreme flooding resulted in livelihood disruptions in the study areas. The main impacts included crop damage, household displacement, destruction of household property, livestock drowning and mud-trapping, the destruction of public infrastructure and disruption of services. The main household coping strategies were labour switching to other livelihood activities, temporary relocation to less affected areas, use of canoes for early harvesting or evacuation and government assistance, particularly for the most vulnerable households. Household adaptive strategies included livelihood diversification, long-term mobility and training in non-agricultural skills. The study concludes that household capacity to adapt to extreme flooding in the study villages largely depends on access to natural capital. This is threatened by population growth, land use changes, policy shifts, upstream developments, global economic changes and flood variations due to climate variability and change.

The 9 September 2010 torrential rain and flash flood in the Dragone catchment, Atrani, Amalfi Coast (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Violante, C.; Braca, G.; Esposito, E.; Tranfaglia, G.

2015-08-01

In this paper we use a multi-hazard approach to analyse the 9 September 2010 flash-flood occurred in the Dragone basin, a 9 km2 catchment located along the Amalfi rocky coastal range, Southern Italy. In this area, alluvial-fan-flooding is the most frequent and destructive geologic hazards since Roman time. Sudden torrent of waters (flash flood) are caused by high-intensity and very localized cloudbursts of short duration inducing slope erosion and sediment delivery from slope-to-stream. The elevated bed load transport produces fast-moving hyperconcentrated flows with significant catastrophic implications for communities living at stream mouth. The 9 September 2010 rainstorm event lasted 1 h with an intensity rainfall peak nearly to 120 mm h-1. High topographic relief of the Amalfi coastal range and positive anomalies of the coastal waters conditioned the character of the convective system. Based on geological data and post-event field evidence and surveys, as well as homemade-videos, and eyewitness accounts the consequent flash-flood mobilized some 25 000 m3 of materials with a total (water and sediment) peak flow of 80 m3 s-1. The estimated peak discharge of only clear water was about 65 m3 s-1. This leads to a sediment bulking factor of 1.2 that corresponds to a flow with velocities similar to those of water during a flood.

Results of rapid needs assessments in rural and urban Iowa following large-scale flooding events in 2008.

PubMed

Quinlisk, Patricia; Jones, Mary J; Bostick, Nathan A; Walsh, Lauren E; Curtiss, Rebecca; Walker, Robert; Mercer, Steve; Subbarao, Italo

2011-12-01

On June 8 and 9, 2008, more than 4 inches of rain fell in the Iowa-Cedars River Basin causing widespread flooding along the Cedar River in Benton, Linn, Johnson, and Cedar Counties. As a result of the flooding, there were 18 deaths, 106 injuries, and over 38,000 people displaced from their homes; this made it necessary for the Iowa Department of Health to conduct a rapid needs assessment to quantify the scope and effect of the floods on human health. In response, the Iowa Department of Public Health mobilized interview teams to conduct rapid needs assessments using Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based cluster sampling techniques. The information gathered was subsequently employed to estimate the public health impact and significant human needs that resulted from the flooding. While these assessments did not reveal significant levels of acute injuries resulting from the flood, they did show that many households had been temporarily displaced and that future health risks may emerge as the result of inadequate access to prescription medications or the presence of environmental health hazards. This exercise highlights the need for improved risk communication measures and ongoing surveillance and relief measures. It also demonstrates the utility of rapid needs assessment survey tools and suggests that increasing use of such surveys can have significant public health benefits.

Ice flood velocity calculating approach based on single view metrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, X.; Xu, L.

2017-02-01

Yellow River is the river in which the ice flood occurs most frequently in China, hence, the Ice flood forecasting has great significance for the river flood prevention work. In various ice flood forecast models, the flow velocity is one of the most important parameters. In spite of the great significance of the flow velocity, its acquisition heavily relies on manual observation or deriving from empirical formula. In recent years, with the high development of video surveillance technology and wireless transmission network, the Yellow River Conservancy Commission set up the ice situation monitoring system, in which live videos can be transmitted to the monitoring center through 3G mobile networks. In this paper, an approach to get the ice velocity based on single view metrology and motion tracking technique using monitoring videos as input data is proposed. First of all, River way can be approximated as a plane. On this condition, we analyze the geometry relevance between the object side and the image side. Besides, we present the principle to measure length in object side from image. Secondly, we use LK optical flow which support pyramid data to track the ice in motion. Combining the result of camera calibration and single view metrology, we propose a flow to calculate the real velocity of ice flood. At last we realize a prototype system by programming and use it to test the reliability and rationality of the whole solution.

Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merz, Bruno; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

2016-10-01

The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role.

Flood area and damage estimation in Zhejiang, China.

PubMed

Liu, Renyi; Liu, Nan

2002-09-01

A GIS-based method to estimate flood area and damage is presented in this paper, which is oriented to developing countries like China, where labor is readily available for GIS data collecting, and tools such as, HEC-GeoRAS might not be readily available. At present local authorities in developing countries are often not predisposed to pay for commercial GIS platforms. To calculate flood area, two cases, non-source flood and source flood, are distinguished and a seed-spread algorithm suitable for source-flooding is described. The flood damage estimation is calculated in raster format by overlaying the flood area range with thematic maps and relating this to other socioeconomic data. Several measures used to improve the geometric accuracy and computing efficiency are presented. The management issues related to the application of this method, including the cost-effectiveness of approximate method in practice and supplementing two technical lines (self-programming and adopting commercial GIS software) to each other, are also discussed. The applications show that this approach has practical significance to flood fighting and control in developing countries like China.

Development of method for evaluating estimated inundation area by using river flood analysis based on multiple flood scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono, T.; Takahashi, T.

2017-12-01

Non-structural mitigation measures such as flood hazard map based on estimated inundation area have been more important because heavy rains exceeding the design rainfall frequently occur in recent years. However, conventional method may lead to an underestimation of the area because assumed locations of dike breach in river flood analysis are limited to the cases exceeding the high-water level. The objective of this study is to consider the uncertainty of estimated inundation area with difference of the location of dike breach in river flood analysis. This study proposed multiple flood scenarios which can set automatically multiple locations of dike breach in river flood analysis. The major premise of adopting this method is not to be able to predict the location of dike breach correctly. The proposed method utilized interval of dike breach which is distance of dike breaches placed next to each other. That is, multiple locations of dike breach were set every interval of dike breach. The 2D shallow water equations was adopted as the governing equation of river flood analysis, and the leap-frog scheme with staggered grid was used. The river flood analysis was verified by applying for the 2015 Kinugawa river flooding, and the proposed multiple flood scenarios was applied for the Akutagawa river in Takatsuki city. As the result of computation in the Akutagawa river, a comparison with each computed maximum inundation depth of dike breaches placed next to each other proved that the proposed method enabled to prevent underestimation of estimated inundation area. Further, the analyses on spatial distribution of inundation class and maximum inundation depth in each of the measurement points also proved that the optimum interval of dike breach which can evaluate the maximum inundation area using the minimum assumed locations of dike breach. In brief, this study found the optimum interval of dike breach in the Akutagawa river, which enabled estimated maximum inundation area to predict efficiently and accurately. The river flood analysis by using this proposed method will contribute to mitigate flood disaster by improving the accuracy of estimated inundation area.

Numerical Analysis of Flood modeling of upper Citarum River under Extreme Flood Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siregar, R. I.

2018-02-01

This paper focuses on how to approach the numerical method and computation to analyse flood parameters. Water level and flood discharge are the flood parameters solved by numerical methods approach. Numerical method performed on this paper for unsteady flow conditions have strengths and weaknesses, among others easily applied to the following cases in which the boundary irregular flow. The study area is in upper Citarum Watershed, Bandung, West Java. This paper uses computation approach with Force2 programming and HEC-RAS to solve the flow problem in upper Citarum River, to investigate and forecast extreme flood condition. Numerical analysis based on extreme flood events that have occurred in the upper Citarum watershed. The result of water level parameter modeling and extreme flood discharge compared with measurement data to analyse validation. The inundation area about flood that happened in 2010 is about 75.26 square kilometres. Comparing two-method show that the FEM analysis with Force2 programs has the best approach to validation data with Nash Index is 0.84 and HEC-RAS that is 0.76 for water level. For discharge data Nash Index obtained the result analysis use Force2 is 0.80 and with use HEC-RAS is 0.79.

Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

PubMed

Reed, Duncan W

2002-07-15

Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin?

Brief communication: On-site data collection of damage caused by flash floods: Experiences from Braunsbach, Germany, in May/June 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laudan, Jonas; Rözer, Viktor; Sieg, Tobias; Vogel, Kristin; Thieken, Annegret

2017-04-01

At the end of May and beginning of June 2016, several municipalities in Southern Germany suffered from severe flash floods and debris flows which have been triggered by intense rainfall in Central Europe. Overall, the insured losses of these events amounted to EUR 1.2 billion in Germany. Especially the strong and unexpected flash flood on May 29th in Braunsbach (Baden Wurttemberg) - a small village counting about 1,000 residents - attracted media and policymakers due to its devastating character. The understanding of damage caused by flash floods requires ex-post collection of relevant but yet sparsely available information, linking process intensities to damage by using adequate methods of data gathering. Thus, on-site data collection was carried out after the flash flood event in Braunsbach, using open source software as helpful and efficient tool for data acquisition and evaluation. A digital survey was designed and conducted by a team of five researchers who investigated all buildings affected by water and debris flows. The collected data includes an estimation of a particular damage class, the inundation depth, and other relevant information. A post - hoc data analysis was done with R 3.3.1 and QGIS 2.14.3, performing both, a Random Forest Model (RF) and Random Generalized Linear Model (RGLM) as well as preparing a Spearman's rank correlation matrix. For visual interpretation and better overview of the study area and analysis results, a "process intensity" map was created, revealing important links of damage driving factors. We find that not only the water depth, which is often considered as only damage driving factor in riverine flood loss modelling, but also the exposition of a building to the flow direction and susceptible building parts like e.g. shop windows seem to be risk factors in flash-flood prone regions. Although no significant correlations were found, the analyses indicate that also building material (i.e. half-timbered or masonry) and structural precaution could play a role on the extent of damage and therefore offer options of damage mitigation. It is revealed that the damage driving as well as damage reducing factors are complex, contingent upon the surrounding and remarkably different from riverine floods. Further, it can be concluded that open source data collection software for mobile use has great potential as a scientific tool to generate extensive valuable data under challenging conditions.

Stream-sediment geochemistry in mining-impacted streams : sediment mobilized by floods in the Coeur d'Alene-Spokane River system, Idaho and Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Box, Stephen E.; Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Ikramuddin, Mohammed

2005-01-01

Environmental problems associated with the dispersion of metal-enriched sediment into the Coeur d'Alene-Spokane River system downstream from the Coeur d'Alene Mining District in northern Idaho have been a cause of litigation since 1903, 18 years after the initiation of mining for lead, zinc, and silver. Although direct dumping of waste materials into the river by active mining operations stopped in 1968, metal-enriched sediment continues to be mobilized during times of high runoff and deposited on valley flood plains and in Coeur d'Alene Lake (Horowitz and others, 1993). To gauge the geographic and temporal variations in the metal contents of flood sediment and to provide constraints on the sources and processes responsible for those variations, we collected samples of suspended sediment and overbank deposits during and after four high-flow events in 1995, 1996, and 1997 in the Coeur d'Alene-Spokane River system with estimated recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 100 years. Suspended sediment enriched in lead, zinc, silver, antimony, arsenic, cadmium, and copper was detected over a distance of more than 130 mi (the downstream extent of sampling) downstream of the mining district. Strong correlations of all these elements in suspended sediment with each other and with iron and manganese are apparent when samples are grouped by reach (tributaries to the South Fork of the Coeur d'Alene River, the South Fork of the Coeur d'Alene River, the main stem of the Coeur d'Alene River, and the Spokane River). Elemental correlations with iron and manganese, along with observations by scanning electron microscopy, indicate that most of the trace metals are associated with Fe and Mn oxyhydroxide compounds. Changes in elemental correlations by reach suggest that the sources of metal-enriched sediment change along the length of the drainage. Metal contents of suspended sediment generally increase through the mining district along the South Fork of the Coeur d'Alene River, decrease below the confluence of the North and South Forks, and then increase again downstream of the gradient flattening below Cataldo. Metal contents of suspended sediment in the Spokane River below Coeur d'Alene Lake were comparable to those of suspended sediment in the main stem of the Coeur d'Alene River above the lake during the 1997 spring runoff, but with somewhat higher Zn contents. Daily suspended-sediment loads were about 100 times larger in the 1996 flood (50-100-year recurrence interval) than in the smaller 1997 floods (2-5-year recurrence intervals). Significant differences in metal ratios and contents are also apparent between the two flood types. The predominant source of suspended sediment in the larger 1996 flood was previously deposited, metal-enriched flood-plain sediment, identified by its Zn/Pb ratio less than 1. Suspended sediment in the smaller 1997 floods had metal ratios distinct from those of the flood-plain deposits and was primarily derived from metal-enriched sediment stored within the stream channel, identified by a Zn/Pb ratio greater than 1. Sediment deposited during overbank flooding on the immediate streambank or natural levee of the river typically consists of sandy material with metal ratios and contents similar to those of the sandy streambed sediment in the adjacent river reach. Samples of overbank deposits in backlevee marshes collected after the 1996 flood have metal ratios similar to those of peak-flow suspended sediment in the same river reach, but generally lower metal contents.

Quantifying peak discharges for historical floods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cook, J.L.

1987-01-01

It is usually advantageous to use information regarding historical floods, if available, to define the flood-frequency relation for a stream. Peak stages can sometimes be determined for outstanding floods that occurred many years ago before systematic gaging of streams began. In the United States, this information is usually not available for more than 100-200 years, but in countries with long cultural histories, such as China, historical flood data are available at some sites as far back as 2,000 years or more. It is important in flood studies to be able to assign a maximum discharge rate and an associated error range to the historical flood. This paper describes the significant characteristics and uncertainties of four commonly used methods for estimating the peak discharge of a flood. These methods are: (1) rating curve (stage-discharge relation) extension; (2) slope conveyance; (3) slope area; and (4) step backwater. Logarithmic extensions of rating curves are based on theoretical plotting techniques that results in straight line extensions provided that channel shape and roughness do not change significantly. The slope-conveyance and slope-area methods are based on the Manning equation, which requires specific data on channel size, shape and roughness, as well as the water-surface slope for one or more cross-sections in a relatively straight reach of channel. The slope-conveyance method is used primarily for shaping and extending rating curves, whereas the slope-area method is used for specific floods. The step-backwater method, also based on the Manning equation, requires more cross-section data than the slope-area ethod, but has a water-surface profile convergence characteristic that negates the need for known or estimated water-surface slope. Uncertainties in calculating peak discharge for historical floods may be quite large. Various investigations have shown that errors in calculating peak discharges by the slope-area method under ideal conditions for recent floods (i.e., when flood elevations, slope and channel characteristics are reasonably certain), may be on the order of 10-25%. Under less than ideal conditions, where streams are hydraulically steep and rough, errors may be much larger. The additional uncertainties for historical floods created by the passage of time may result in even larger errors of peak discharge. ?? 1987.

Real-time simulation of large-scale floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Q.; Qin, Y.; Li, G. D.; Liu, Z.; Cheng, D. J.; Zhao, Y. H.

2016-08-01

According to the complex real-time water situation, the real-time simulation of large-scale floods is very important for flood prevention practice. Model robustness and running efficiency are two critical factors in successful real-time flood simulation. This paper proposed a robust, two-dimensional, shallow water model based on the unstructured Godunov- type finite volume method. A robust wet/dry front method is used to enhance the numerical stability. An adaptive method is proposed to improve the running efficiency. The proposed model is used for large-scale flood simulation on real topography. Results compared to those of MIKE21 show the strong performance of the proposed model.

Regional flood-frequency relations for streams with many years of no flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hjalmarson, Hjalmar W.; Thomas, Blakemore E.; ,

1990-01-01

In the southwestern United States, flood-frequency relations for streams that drain small arid basins are difficult to estimate, largely because of the extreme temporal and spatial variability of floods and the many years of no flow. A method is proposed that is based on the station-year method. The new method produces regional flood-frequency relations using all available annual peak-discharge data. The prediction errors for the relations are directly assessed using randomly selected subsamples of the annual peak discharges.

Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

2016-04-01

Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

Estimation of design floods in ungauged catchments using a regional index flood method. A case study of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobert, Joel; Mugo, Margaret; Gadain, Hussein

Reliable estimation of flood magnitudes corresponding to required return periods, vital for structural design purposes, is impacted by lack of hydrological data in the study area of Lake Victoria Basin in Kenya. Use of regional information, derived from data at gauged sites and regionalized for use at any location within a homogenous region, would improve the reliability of the design flood estimation. Therefore, the regional index flood method has been applied. Based on data from 14 gauged sites, a delineation of the basin into two homogenous regions was achieved using elevation variation (90-m DEM), spatial annual rainfall pattern and Principal Component Analysis of seasonal rainfall patterns (from 94 rainfall stations). At site annual maximum series were modelled using the Log normal (LN) (3P), Log Logistic Distribution (LLG), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distributions. The parameters of the distributions were estimated using the method of probability weighted moments. Goodness of fit tests were applied and the GEV was identified as the most appropriate model for each site. Based on the GEV model, flood quantiles were estimated and regional frequency curves derived from the averaged at site growth curves. Using the least squares regression method, relationships were developed between the index flood, which is defined as the Mean Annual Flood (MAF) and catchment characteristics. The relationships indicated area, mean annual rainfall and altitude were the three significant variables that greatly influence the index flood. Thereafter, estimates of flood magnitudes in ungauged catchments within a homogenous region were estimated from the derived equations for index flood and quantiles from the regional curves. These estimates will improve flood risk estimation and to support water management and engineering decisions and actions.

Predicting Flood Hazards in Systems with Multiple Flooding Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, A.; Schubert, J.; Cheng, L.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.

2014-12-01

Delineating flood zones in systems that are susceptible to flooding from a single mechanism (riverine flooding) is a relatively well defined procedure with specific guidance from agencies such as FEMA and USACE. However, there is little guidance in delineating flood zones in systems that are susceptible to flooding from multiple mechanisms such as storm surge, waves, tidal influence, and riverine flooding. In this study, a new flood mapping method which accounts for multiple extremes occurring simultaneously is developed and exemplified. The study site in which the method is employed is the Tijuana River Estuary (TRE) located in Southern California adjacent to the U.S./Mexico border. TRE is an intertidal coastal estuary that receives freshwater flows from the Tijuana River. Extreme discharge from the Tijuana River is the primary driver of flooding within TRE, however tide level and storm surge also play a significant role in flooding extent and depth. A comparison between measured flows at the Tijuana River and ocean levels revealed a correlation between extreme discharge and ocean height. Using a novel statistical method based upon extreme value theory, ocean heights were predicted conditioned up extreme discharge occurring within the Tijuana River. This statistical technique could also be applied to other systems in which different factors are identified as the primary drivers of flooding, such as significant wave height conditioned upon tide level, for example. Using the predicted ocean levels conditioned upon varying return levels of discharge as forcing parameters for the 2D hydraulic model BreZo, the 100, 50, 20, and 10 year floodplains were delineated. The results will then be compared to floodplains delineated using the standard methods recommended by FEMA for riverine zones with a downstream ocean boundary.

Bed-material entrainment potential, Roaring Fork River at Basalt, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, John G.

2002-01-01

The Roaring Fork River at Basalt, Colorado, has a frequently mobile streambed composed of gravel, cobbles, and boulders. Recent urban and highway development on the flood plain, earlier attempts to realign and confine the channel, and flow obstructions such as bridge openings and piers have altered the hydrology, hydraulics, sediment transport, and sediment deposition areas of the Roaring Fork. Entrainment and deposition of coarse sediment on the streambed and in large alluvial bars have reduced the flood-conveying capacity of the river. Previous engineering studies have identified flood-prone areas and hazards related to inundation and high streamflow velocity, but those studies have not evaluated the potential response of the channel to discharges that entrain the coarse streambed. This study builds upon the results of earlier flood studies and identifies some potential areas of concern associated with bed-material entrainment. Cross-section surveys and simulated water-surface elevations from a previously run HEC?RAS model were used to calculate the boundary shear stress on the mean streambed, in the thalweg, and on the tops of adjacent alluvial bars for four reference streamflows. Sediment-size characteristics were determined for surficial material on the streambed, on large alluvial bars, and on a streambank. The median particle size (d50) for the streambed samples was 165 millimeters and for the alluvial bars and bank samples was 107 millimeters. Shear stresses generated by the 10-, 50-, and 100-year floods, and by a more common flow that just inundated most of the alluvial bars in the study reach were calculated at 14 of the cross sections used in the Roaring Fork River HEC?RAS model. The Shields equation was used with a Shields parameter of 0.030 to estimate the critical shear stress for entrainment of the median sediment particle size on the mean streambed, in the thalweg, and on adjacent alluvial bar surfaces at the 14 cross sections. Sediment-entrainment potential for a specific geomorphic surface was expressed as the ratio of the flood-generated boundary shear stress to the critical shear stress (to/tc) with respect to two threshold conditions. The partial entrainment threshold (to/tc=1) is the condition where the mean boundary shear stress (to) equals the critical shear stress for the median particle size (tc) at that cross section. At this threshold discharge, the d50 particle size becomes entrained, but movement of d50-size particles may be limited to a few individual particles or in a small area of the streambed surface. The complete entrainment threshold (to/tc=2) is the condition where to is twice the critical shear stress for the median particle size, the condition where complete or widespread mobilization of the d50 particle-size fraction is anticipated. Entrainment potential for a specific reference streamflow varied greatly in the downstream direction. At some cross sections, the bed or bar material was mobile, whereas at other cross sections, the bed or bar material was immobile for the same discharge. The significance of downstream variability is that sediment entrained at one cross section may be transported into, but not through, a cross section farther downstream, a situation resulting in sediment deposition and possibly progressive aggradation and loss of channel conveyance. Little or no sediment in the d50-size range is likely to be entrained or transported through much of the study reach by the bar-inundating streamflow. However, the entrainment potential at this discharge increases abruptly to more than twice the critical value, then decreases abruptly, at a series of cross sections located downstream from the Emma and Midland Avenue Bridges. Median particle-size sediment is mobile at most cross sections in the study reach during the 10-year flood; however, the bed material is immobile at cross sections just upstream from the Upper Bypass and Midland Avenue Bridges. A similar s

Regional L-Moment-Based Flood Frequency Analysis in the Upper Vistula River Basin, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, A.; Żelazny, M.; Kohnová, S.; Łyp, M.; Banasik, K.

2017-02-01

The Upper Vistula River basin was divided into pooling groups with similar dimensionless frequency distributions of annual maximum river discharge. The cluster analysis and the Hosking and Wallis (HW) L-moment-based method were used to divide the set of 52 mid-sized catchments into disjoint clusters with similar morphometric, land use, and rainfall variables, and to test the homogeneity within clusters. Finally, three and four pooling groups were obtained alternatively. Two methods for identification of the regional distribution function were used, the HW method and the method of Kjeldsen and Prosdocimi based on a bivariate extension of the HW measure. Subsequently, the flood quantile estimates were calculated using the index flood method. The ordinary least squares (OLS) and the generalised least squares (GLS) regression techniques were used to relate the index flood to catchment characteristics. Predictive performance of the regression scheme for the southern part of the Upper Vistula River basin was improved by using GLS instead of OLS. The results of the study can be recommended for the estimation of flood quantiles at ungauged sites, in flood risk mapping applications, and in engineering hydrology to help design flood protection structures.

Annual timing of river floods in the Northeast United States: seasonal characterization and temporal trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, M. J.

2016-12-01

Increases in flood magnitude and frequency have been documented in climate-sensitive watersheds in the Northeast United States. Associated changes in inundation frequency and/or magnitude, or changes in stream channel form and function, can affect human uses of floodplain environments (e.g., dwellings or transportation infrastructure) as well as aquatic and riparian habitats. Historical changes in flood magnitude and frequency also have important implications for designing floodplain infrastructure and channel modifications because well-accepted statistical methods for design-flood prediction require flood records with stationary means and variances. Changes in flood timing during the year may also be impactful, but have not been studied in detail for the Northeast United States. For example, relatively modest shifts in the timing of winter/spring floods can affect the incidence of ice jam complications. Or, changes in spring or fall flood timing may positively or negatively affect a vulnerable life stage for a migratory fish (e.g., egg setting) depending on whether floods occur more frequently before or after the life history event. With this study I apply an objective, probabilistic method for identifying flood seasonality in climate-sensitive watersheds of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions (Hydrologic Unit Codes 01 and 02). Temporal trends in the timing of floods within significant flood seasons at a site are then analyzed using a method that employs directional statistics. The analyses are based on partial duration flood series that are an average of 85 years long. Documented changes in flood timing during the year are considered in the context of both potential historical impacts and expectations for future flood timing given regional climate change projections.

Polymers for enhanced oil recovery: fundamentals and selection criteria.

PubMed

Rellegadla, Sandeep; Prajapat, Ganshyam; Agrawal, Akhil

2017-06-01

With a rising population, the demand for energy has increased over the years. As per the projections, both fossil fuel and renewables will remain as major energy source (678 quadrillion BTU) till 2030 with fossil fuel contributing 78% of total energy consumption. Hence, attempts are continuously made to make fossil fuel production more sustainable and cheaper. From the past 40 years, polymer flooding has been carried out in marginal oil fields and have proved to be successful in many cases. The common expectation from polymer flooding is to obtain 50% ultimate recovery with 15 to 20% incremental recovery over secondary water flooding. Both naturally derived polymers like xanthan gum and synthetic polymers like partially hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM) have been used for this purpose. Earlier laboratory and field trials revealed that salinity and temperature are the major issues with the synthetic polymers that lead to polymer degradation and adsorption on the rock surface. Microbial degradation and concentration are major issues with naturally derived polymers leading to loss of viscosity and pore throat plugging. Earlier studies also revealed that polymer flooding is successful in the fields where oil viscosity is quite higher (up to 126 cp) than injection water due to improvement in mobility ratio during polymer flooding. The largest successful polymer flood was reported in China in 1990 where both synthetic and naturally derived polymers were used in nearly 20 projects. The implementation of these projects provides valuable suggestions for further improving the available processes in future. This paper examines the selection criteria of polymer, field characteristics that support polymer floods and recommendation to design a large producing polymer flooding.

Geomorphic impacts of flash flooding in a forested headwater basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, Jonathan D.

2002-12-01

Geomorphic impacts of a July 2001 flood in the Hungry Mother basin near Marion, Virginia, were examined to shed light on the relationships between channel characteristics and the frequency of channel-modifying discharges. Creeks in the study area have been observed for many years, with no significant channel changes since at least 1985. The 2001 flood had a recurrence interval of >200 years, and caused the only channel change, bank erosion, and transport of coarse channel material observed in recent decades. The paucity of fines in channels before or after the flood, and the absence of sub-sand sized material in the flood deposits, indicates that normal, frequent, well-below-bankfull flows are sufficient to transport the (apparently limited) supply of fines. The large particles transported during the 2001 flood after years of inactivity indicate that relatively rare floods are necessary to mobilize this material. This suggests the notion of a bimodal 'dominant' discharge. On the one hand frequent flows considerably below bankfull levels are sufficient to maintain the channel and prevent significant accumulation of fine sediments and organic matter. On the other hand, rare floods are necessary to transport the coarser bed material and erode channel banks. In the Hungry Mother area, bed material has no relationship to normal flows, or to flows with recurrence intervals on the order of 1-3 years. Bankfull discharge is apparently not related to either the maintenance or channel-changing dominant discharges. These results suggest that the use of channel dimensions and/or bed material as surrogate indicators of hydrologic regimes can be quite complicated, and that in some streams bankfull flow has no particular significance in terms of sediment transport and channel modifications.

Effects of the First Floods on Water Quality and Sediment Transport in the Sierra Nevada Foothill Streams, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Baca, J.; He, Z.; Blunmenshine, S.

2010-12-01

The typical Mediterranean climate of California (wet winter and spring season followed by dry summer and fall season) makes it necessary to closely monitor the first few floods in early November or December when the accumulated surface matters in the past rainless months would be flushed into the streams causing water quality impairment and sediment mobilization. In order to evaluate the effects of the first floods, two storm water samplers were installed, one on the main stem of the Fresno River and the other on the Coarsegold tributary. The storm water sampler collects two different samples during a storm event. The “first flush” sample is collected at the beginning of a storm event and the “time weighted” composite sample is collected at selected intervals during the storm. Nutrient contents in all the water samples were measured to evaluate water quality status, and the fine particle size distributions of the suspended sediments in the flood water were measured using laser diffraction. Results show that: (1)The effects of the first floods are significant: it cleans the tributary (nutrient losing) streams while aggravating nutrient loadings in the main stem of the river; (2) The sediment flux in the upper areas of the watershed is generally low, however it increases ten folds during the flood in the lower part of the watershed, loading large amounts of sediments in the Hensley Lake; and (3) After the first floods, the river channel is typically deposited with increased amount of very fine (< 2 micros) and very coarse particles (>200 microns), causing significant substrate siltation thus affecting habitat quality for the stream biota. The hydrology of the first floods needs to be further studied for water quality assessment in the Mediterranean climate regions.

An integrated approach to flood hazard assessment on alluvial fans using numerical modeling, field mapping, and remote sensing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pelletier, J.D.; Mayer, L.; Pearthree, P.A.; House, P.K.; Demsey, K.A.; Klawon, J.K.; Vincent, K.R.

2005-01-01

Millions of people in the western United States live near the dynamic, distributary channel networks of alluvial fans where flood behavior is complex and poorly constrained. Here we test a new comprehensive approach to alluvial-fan flood hazard assessment that uses four complementary methods: two-dimensional raster-based hydraulic modeling, satellite-image change detection, fieldbased mapping of recent flood inundation, and surficial geologic mapping. Each of these methods provides spatial detail lacking in the standard method and each provides critical information for a comprehensive assessment. Our numerical model simultaneously solves the continuity equation and Manning's equation (Chow, 1959) using an implicit numerical method. It provides a robust numerical tool for predicting flood flows using the large, high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) necessary to resolve the numerous small channels on the typical alluvial fan. Inundation extents and flow depths of historic floods can be reconstructed with the numerical model and validated against field- and satellite-based flood maps. A probabilistic flood hazard map can also be constructed by modeling multiple flood events with a range of specified discharges. This map can be used in conjunction with a surficial geologic map to further refine floodplain delineation on fans. To test the accuracy of the numerical model, we compared model predictions of flood inundation and flow depths against field- and satellite-based flood maps for two recent extreme events on the southern Tortolita and Harquahala piedmonts in Arizona. Model predictions match the field- and satellite-based maps closely. Probabilistic flood hazard maps based on the 10 yr, 100 yr, and maximum floods were also constructed for the study areas using stream gage records and paleoflood deposits. The resulting maps predict spatially complex flood hazards that strongly reflect small-scale topography and are consistent with surficial geology. In contrast, FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) based on the FAN model predict uniformly high flood risk across the study areas without regard for small-scale topography and surficial geology. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

A new automatic SAR-based flood mapping application hosted on the European Space Agency's grid processing on demand fast access to imagery environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hostache, Renaud; Chini, Marco; Matgen, Patrick; Giustarini, Laura

2013-04-01

There is a clear need for developing innovative processing chains based on earth observation (EO) data to generate products supporting emergency response and flood management at a global scale. Here an automatic flood mapping application is introduced. The latter is currently hosted on the Grid Processing on Demand (G-POD) Fast Access to Imagery (Faire) environment of the European Space Agency. The main objective of the online application is to deliver flooded areas using both recent and historical acquisitions of SAR data in an operational framework. It is worth mentioning that the method can be applied to both medium and high resolution SAR images. The flood mapping application consists of two main blocks: 1) A set of query tools for selecting the "crisis image" and the optimal corresponding pre-flood "reference image" from the G-POD archive. 2) An algorithm for extracting flooded areas using the previously selected "crisis image" and "reference image". The proposed method is a hybrid methodology, which combines histogram thresholding, region growing and change detection as an approach enabling the automatic, objective and reliable flood extent extraction from SAR images. The method is based on the calibration of a statistical distribution of "open water" backscatter values inferred from SAR images of floods. Change detection with respect to a pre-flood reference image helps reducing over-detection of inundated areas. The algorithms are computationally efficient and operate with minimum data requirements, considering as input data a flood image and a reference image. Stakeholders in flood management and service providers are able to log onto the flood mapping application to get support for the retrieval, from the rolling archive, of the most appropriate pre-flood reference image. Potential users will also be able to apply the implemented flood delineation algorithm. Case studies of several recent high magnitude flooding events (e.g. July 2007 Severn River flood, UK and March 2010 Red River flood, US) observed by high-resolution SAR sensors as well as airborne photography highlight advantages and limitations of the online application. A mid-term target is the exploitation of ESA SENTINEL 1 SAR data streams. In the long term it is foreseen to develop a potential extension of the application for systematically extracting flooded areas from all SAR images acquired on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. On-going research activities investigate the usefulness of the method for mapping flood hazard at global scale using databases of historic SAR remote sensing-derived flood inundation maps.

Mobilization and attenuation of metals downstream from a base-metal mining site in the Matra Mountains, northeastern Hungary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Odor, L.; Wanty, R.B.; Horvath, I.; Fugedi, U.; ,

1999-01-01

Regional geochemical baseline values have been established for Hungary by the use of low-density stream-sediment surveys of flood-plain deposits of large drainage basins and of the fine fraction of stream sediments. The baseline values and anomaly thresholds thus produced helped to evaluate the importance of high toxic element concentrations found in soils in a valley downstream of a polymetallic vein-type base-metal mine. Erosion of the mine dumps and flotation dump, losses of metals during filtering, storage and transportation, human neglects, and operational breakdowns, have all contributed to the contamination of a small catchment basin in a procession of releases of solid waste. The sulfide-rich waste material weathers to a yellow color; this layer of 'yellow sand' blankets a narrow strip of the floodplain of Toka Creek in the valley near the town of Gyongyosoroszi. Contamination was spread out in the valley by floods. Metals present in the yellow sand include Pb, As, Cd, Cu, Zn, and Sb. Exposure of the local population to these metals may occur through inhalation of airborne particulates or by ingestion of these metals that are taken up by crops grown in the valley. To evaluate the areal extent and depth of the contamination, active stream sediment, flood-plain deposits, lake or reservoir sediments, soils, and surface water were sampled along the erosion pathways downstream of the mine and dumps. The flood-plain profile was sampled in detail to see the vertical distribution of elements and to relate the metal concentrations to the sedimentation and contamination histories of the flood plain. Downward migration of mobile Zn and Cd from the contaminated upper layers under supergene conditions is observed, while vertical migration of Pb, As, Hg and Sb appears to be insignificant. Soil profiles of 137Cs which originated from above-ground atomic bomb tests and the Chernobyl accident, provide good evidence that the upper 30-40 cm of the flood-plain sections, which includes the yellow sand contamination, were deposited in the last 30-40 years.The regional geochemical baseline values are established for Hungary using low-density stream-sediment surveys of flood-plain deposits of large drainage basins and of the fine fraction of stream sediments. The baseline values and anomaly thresholds allowed the evaluation of the importance of high toxic element concentrations in soils in a valley, downstream of a polymetallic vein-type base-metal mine. The metals present in the yellow sand include Pb, As, Cd, Cu, Zn and Sb. To evaluate the areal extent and depth of the contamination, active stream sediment, flood-plain deposits, lake or reservoir sediments, the soils and surface water were sampled along the erosion pathways downstream of the mine and dumps.

Flood magnitude-frequency analysis and sediment transport capacity rate assessment in a mixed alluvial-bedrock channel at Val Lumnezia, Eastern Switzerland, (Graubünden)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekaddour, T.

2012-04-01

There is growing evidence in the literature that flood frequency has a large impact on the effective time scale of hillslope-derived sediment transport. Here, we present quantitative data on sediment transport in the mountainous Glenner River that drains the 120 km2-large Val Lumnezia basin, eastern Swiss Alps. The longitudinal profile of this stream is characterized by the presence of three ca. 500 m-long knickzones where channel gradients range from 0.02 to 0.2 mm-1 and the stream narrows to < 2 m wide gorges. Upstream and downstream of these knickzone reaches, the stream is flat with gradients < 0.01 mm-1, and cross-sectional widths ≥ 30 m. Measurements of the grain size distribution along the stream yield d84 values that range from ca. 10 to 28 cm, whereas the d50 values scatter around 10 cm. We explore the consequences of the channel morphology and the grain size distribution for the time scales of sediment transport by using a 1-D step-back water hydraulic model (HEC-RAS), to estimate hydraulic conditions at number of flood events and to predict hydraulic parameters and the boundary shear stress. The results reveal that along the knickzone reaches, a 2 years return period flood event Q2 is capable of mobilizing the d84 fraction where boundary critical shear stress exceeds the Shields critical shear stress value at incipient motion. In all other flat stream segments, the d84 fraction is barely attaining incipient motion where the critical boundary shear stress is approximately equal to the Shields critical shear stress at incipient motion. The results differ for smaller grain sizes , where Q2 is capable of mobilizing the d50 fraction along the entire stream. We anticipate that the overall effect of Q2 floods is the enrichment of coarse-grained sediment in the flat channel reaches by the entrainment of the d50 fraction, shifting to a better sorting of the bed particles. As a result, the degree of interlocking of coarse grain material may increases, which ultimately leads to enhanced stabilization of the channel bed and thus to a higher threshold of critical stress of incipient motion. Q10 floods, in contrast, are capable of moving both the d50 and d84 fractions, which implies that Q10 represents an effective flood that is results in the evacuation of hillslope-derived material over longer distances. Our results thus support the idea that the mechanisms and timescales of sediment transport in high mountain streams strongly depend on stream geometry and flood magnitude-frequency.

From Big Data to Small Transportable Products for Decision Support for Floods in Namibia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandl, D.; Frye, S.; Cappelaere, P.; Policelli, F.; Handy, M.; Sohlberg, R. A.; Grossman, R.

2013-12-01

During the past four years, a team from NASA, Oklahoma University, University of Maryland and University of Chicago in collaboration with the Namibia Hydrological Services (NHS) has explored ways to provide decision support products for floods. The products include a variety of data including a hydrological model, ground measurements such as river gauges, and earth remote sensing data. This poster or presentation highlights the lessons learned in acquiring, storing, managing big data on the cloud and turning it into relevant products for GEOSS users. Technology that has been explored includes the use of Hadoop/MapReduce and Accumulo to process and manage the large data sets. OpenStreetMap was explored for use in cataloging water boundaries and enabling collaborative mapping of the base water mask and floods. A Flood Dashboard was created to customize displays of various data products. Finally, a higher level Geo-Social Application Processing Interface (API) was developed so that users can discover, generate products dynamically for their specific needs/societal benefit areas and then share them with their Community of Practice over social networks. Results of this experiment have included 100x reduction in size of some flood products, making it possible to distribute these products to mobile platforms and/or bandwidth-limited users.

Looking at flood trends with different eyes: the value of a fuzzy flood classification scheme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikorska, A. E.; Viviroli, D.; Brunner, M. I.; Seibert, J.

2016-12-01

Natural floods can be governed by several processes such as heavy rainfall or intense snow- or glacier-melt. These processes result in different flood characteristics in terms of flood shape and magnitude. Pooling floods of different types might therefore impair the analyses of flood frequencies and trends. Thus, the categorization of flood events into different flood type classes and the determination of their respective frequencies is essential for a better understanding and for the prediction of floods. In reality however most flood events are caused by a mix of processes and a unique determination of a flood type per event often becomes difficult. This study proposes an innovative method for a more reliable categorization of floods according to similarities in flood drivers. The categorization of floods into subgroups relies on a fuzzy decision tree. While the classical (crisp) decision tree allows for the identification of only one flood type per event, the fuzzy approach enables the detection of mixed types. Hence, events are represented as a spectrum of six possible flood types, while a degree of acceptance attributed to each of them specifies the importance of each type during the event formation. Considered types are flash, short rainfall, long rainfall, snow-melt, rainfall-on-snow, and, in high altitude watersheds, also glacier-melt floods. The fuzzy concept also enables uncertainty present in the identification of flood processes and in the method to be incorporated into the flood categorization process. We demonstrate, for a set of nine Swiss watersheds and 30 years of observations, that this new concept provides more reliable flood estimates than the classical approach as it allows for a more dedicated flood prevention technique adapted to a specific flood type.

Visual Sensing for Urban Flood Monitoring

PubMed Central

Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

2015-01-01

With the increasing climatic extremes, the frequency and severity of urban flood events have intensified worldwide. In this study, image-based automated monitoring of flood formation and analyses of water level fluctuation were proposed as value-added intelligent sensing applications to turn a passive monitoring camera into a visual sensor. Combined with the proposed visual sensing method, traditional hydrological monitoring cameras have the ability to sense and analyze the local situation of flood events. This can solve the current problem that image-based flood monitoring heavily relies on continuous manned monitoring. Conventional sensing networks can only offer one-dimensional physical parameters measured by gauge sensors, whereas visual sensors can acquire dynamic image information of monitored sites and provide disaster prevention agencies with actual field information for decision-making to relieve flood hazards. The visual sensing method established in this study provides spatiotemporal information that can be used for automated remote analysis for monitoring urban floods. This paper focuses on the determination of flood formation based on image-processing techniques. The experimental results suggest that the visual sensing approach may be a reliable way for determining the water fluctuation and measuring its elevation and flood intrusion with respect to real-world coordinates. The performance of the proposed method has been confirmed; it has the capability to monitor and analyze the flood status, and therefore, it can serve as an active flood warning system. PMID:26287201

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Hydrologic risk analysis in the Yangtze River basin through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Y. R.; Huang, W. W.; Huang, G. H.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, K.; Li, Z.

2016-02-01

In this study, a bivariate hydrologic risk framework is proposed through coupling Gaussian mixtures into copulas, leading to a coupled GMM-copula method. In the coupled GMM-Copula method, the marginal distributions of flood peak, volume and duration are quantified through Gaussian mixture models and the joint probability distributions of flood peak-volume, peak-duration and volume-duration are established through copulas. The bivariate hydrologic risk is then derived based on the joint return period of flood variable pairs. The proposed method is applied to the risk analysis for the Yichang station on the main stream of the Yangtze River, China. The results indicate that (i) the bivariate risk for flood peak-volume would keep constant for the flood volume less than 1.0 × 105 m3/s day, but present a significant decreasing trend for the flood volume larger than 1.7 × 105 m3/s day; and (ii) the bivariate risk for flood peak-duration would not change significantly for the flood duration less than 8 days, and then decrease significantly as duration value become larger. The probability density functions (pdfs) of the flood volume and duration conditional on flood peak can also be generated through the fitted copulas. The results indicate that the conditional pdfs of flood volume and duration follow bimodal distributions, with the occurrence frequency of the first vertex decreasing and the latter one increasing as the increase of flood peak. The obtained conclusions from the bivariate hydrologic analysis can provide decision support for flood control and mitigation.

Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

2017-09-01

Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

Establishing a rainfall threshold for flash flood warnings based on the DFFG method in Yunnan province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, M.; Wang, H.; Chen, Y.; Tang, G.; Hong, Z.; Zhang, K.; Hong, Y.

2017-12-01

Flash floods, one of the deadliest natural hazards worldwide due to their multidisciplinary nature, rank highly in terms of heavy damage and casualties. Such as in the United States, flash flood is the No.1 cause of death and the No. 2 most deadly weather-related hazard among all storm-related hazards, with approximately 100 lives lost each year. According to China Floods and Droughts Disasters Bullet in 2015 (http://www.mwr.gov.cn/zwzc/hygb/zgshzhgb), about 935 deaths per year on average were caused by flash floods from 2000 to 2015, accounting for 73 % of the fatalities due to floods. Therefore, significant efforts have been made toward understanding flash flood processes as well as modeling and forecasting them, it still remains challenging because of their short response time and limited monitoring capacity. This study advances the use of high-resolution Global Precipitation Measurement forecasts (GPMs), disaster data obtained from the government officials in 2011 and 2016, and the improved Distributed Flash Flood Guidance (DFFG) method combining the Distributed Hydrologic Model and Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers. The objectives of this paper are (1) to examines changes in flash flood occurrence, (2) to estimate the effect of the rainfall spatial variability ,(2) to improve the lead time in flash floods warning and get the rainfall threshold, (3) to assess the DFFG method applicability in Dongchuan catchments, and (4) to yield the probabilistic information about the forecast hydrologic response that accounts for the locational uncertainties of the GPMs. Results indicate: (1) flash flood occurrence increased in the study region, (2) the occurrence of predicted flash floods show high sensitivity to total infiltration and soil water content, (3) the DFFG method is generally capable of making accurate predictions of flash flood events in terms of their locations and time of occurrence, and (4) the accumulative rainfall over a certain time span is an appropriate threshold for flash flood warnings. Finally, the article highlights the importance of accurately simulating the hydrological processes and high-resolution satellite rainfall data on the accurate forecasting of rainfall triggered flash flood events.

floodX: urban flash flood experiments monitored with conventional and alternative sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moy de Vitry, Matthew; Dicht, Simon; Leitão, João P.

2017-09-01

The data sets described in this paper provide a basis for developing and testing new methods for monitoring and modelling urban pluvial flash floods. Pluvial flash floods are a growing hazard to property and inhabitants' well-being in urban areas. However, the lack of appropriate data collection methods is often cited as an impediment for reliable flood modelling, thereby hindering the improvement of flood risk mapping and early warning systems. The potential of surveillance infrastructure and social media is starting to draw attention for this purpose. In the floodX project, 22 controlled urban flash floods were generated in a flood response training facility and monitored with state-of-the-art sensors as well as standard surveillance cameras. With these data, it is possible to explore the use of video data and computer vision for urban flood monitoring and modelling. The floodX project stands out as the largest documented flood experiment of its kind, providing both conventional measurements and video data in parallel and at high temporal resolution. The data set used in this paper is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.830513.

Multi-temporal clustering of continental floods and associated atmospheric circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Yongqiang

2017-12-01

Investigating clustering of floods has important social, economic and ecological implications. This study examines the clustering of Australian floods at different temporal scales and its possible physical mechanisms. Flood series with different severities are obtained by peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling in four flood thresholds. At intra-annual scale, Cox regression and monthly frequency methods are used to examine whether and when the flood clustering exists, respectively. At inter-annual scale, dispersion indices with four-time variation windows are applied to investigate the inter-annual flood clustering and its variation. Furthermore, the Kernel occurrence rate estimate and bootstrap resampling methods are used to identify flood-rich/flood-poor periods. Finally, seasonal variation of horizontal wind at 850 hPa and vertical wind velocity at 500 hPa are used to investigate the possible mechanisms causing the temporal flood clustering. Our results show that: (1) flood occurrences exhibit clustering at intra-annual scale, which are regulated by climate indices representing the impacts of the Pacific and Indian Oceans; (2) the flood-rich months occur from January to March over northern Australia, and from July to September over southwestern and southeastern Australia; (3) stronger inter-annual clustering takes place across southern Australia than northern Australia; and (4) Australian floods are characterised by regional flood-rich and flood-poor periods, with 1987-1992 identified as the flood-rich period across southern Australia, but the flood-poor period across northern Australia, and 2001-2006 being the flood-poor period across most regions of Australia. The intra-annual and inter-annual clustering and temporal variation of flood occurrences are in accordance with the variation of atmospheric circulation. These results provide relevant information for flood management under the influence of climate variability, and, therefore, are helpful for developing flood hazard mitigation schemes.

Control of Sediment Availability on the Path of Channel Recovery in Bedload-Dominated Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, H.; Renshaw, C. E.; Magilligan, F. J.

2015-12-01

Following a disturbance, a channel can recover to an equilibrium form by adjusting its slope, width, depth, grain size, or some combination of these dimensions that define the recovery path. In this study we relate the channel recovery path to the quantity and caliber of sediment introduced due to dam construction/removal or erosion caused by flooding. We suggest that the recovery path of a channel depends on the availability of sediment of a size that is transported as bedload during bankfull flows (the "mobile fraction"). We define a ratio, S*, of the sediment volume added to the channel because of the disturbance to the average annual sediment flux. We compare S* values to the recovery path of New England gravel-bedded streams following two dam emplacements and removals and flooding related to Tropical Storm Irene. Pelham Dam in Pelham, MA (removed 2012) and Kendrick Dam in Pittsford, VT (removed 2014) were on similar streams: drainage areas ~25 km2, slopes 1-2%, and bankfull widths ~10 m. Sediment was excavated from both impoundments prior to removal, resulting in lower S* values. Irene-affected study sites are on ~10 gravel-bedded streams in VT, NH, and MA. Sediment input at these sites is due to bank failures and landslides, many of which continue to supply sediment to the channel four years after flooding. To track recovery we collected annual topographic and sediment size data and calculated Shields numbers to determine if channels had reached an equilibrium form. We define equilibrium for bedload rivers as Shields numbers at bankfull discharge equal to that required to initiate bedload transport. Following dam emplacements the channels failed to recover because mobile sediment was unavailable. Fining dominated the recovery at Irene-affected sites (~10% reduction in sediment size) and dam removal sites (up to 30-60% reduction) with little post-disturbance change in channel geometry, possibly due to the limited mobile fraction.

Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

2016-04-01

Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs according to the flooding season, cultivation type and the agro-climatic zone. The flood damage equivalence to constructions summed up to reach 32 M for residential structures, 29 M for non-residential structures, and 5 M for the Syrian refugees tents, while structures' content losses were estimated at 27M, 54M, 7 M respectively for the same flood frequency. The total length of affected road networks during flooding is 1589km with an estimated cost of 565M. The total number of affected population reached 82,000 while the number of effected vehicles is 62,000 for a 50year recurrence period

Acceptance of Using an Ecosystem of Mobile Apps for Use in Diabetes Clinic for Self-Management of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Pais, Sarita; Parry, Dave; Petrova, Krassie; Rowan, Janet

2017-01-01

Mobile applications (apps) for self-management of diseases such as diabetes and for general well-being, including keeping track of food, diet, and exercise, are widely available. However, consumers face a flood of new mobile apps in the app stores and have no guidance from clinicians about choosing the appropriate app. As much as clinicians would like to support a patient-centered approach and promote health and wellness mobile apps, they may be unable to provide advice due to the lack of comprehensive and reliable app reviews. This research reviewed a selection of health and wellness mobile apps suitable for the self-management of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). A prototype of an ecosystem that integrated the data generated by the apps was built and its usefulness and ease of use were evaluated. The results show that the ecosystem can provide support for GDM self-management by sharing health and wellness data across the diabetes clinic.

The 9 September 2010 torrential rain and flash flood in the Dragone catchment, Atrani, Amalfi Coast (southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Violante, C.; Braca, G.; Esposito, E.; Tranfaglia, G.

2016-02-01

In this paper we use a multi-hazard approach to analyse the 9 September 2010 flash flood in the Dragone basin, a 9 km2 catchment located along the Amalfi rocky coastal range, southern Italy. In this area, alluvial fan flooding has been the most frequent and destructive geologic hazard since Roman times. Sudden torrents of water (flash floods) are caused by high-intensity and very localized cloudbursts of short duration, inducing slope erosion and sediment delivery from slope to stream. The elevated bed load transport produces fast-moving hyperconcentrated flows with significant catastrophic implications for communities living at the stream mouth. The 9 September 2010 rainstorm event lasted 1 h with an intensity rainfall peak of nearly 120 mm h-1. High topographic relief of the Amalfi coastal range and positive anomalies of the coastal waters conditioned the character of the convective system. Based on geological data and post-event field evidence and surveys, as well as homemade videos and eyewitness accounts, it is reported that the flash flood mobilized some 25 000 m3 of materials with a total (water and sediment) peak flow of 80 m3 s-1. The estimated peak discharge of only clear water was about 65 m3 s-1. This leads to a sediment bulking factor of 1.2 that corresponds to a flow with velocities similar to those of water during a flood.

The model of flood control using servqual method and importance performance analysis in Surakarta City – Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titi Purwantini, V.; Sutanto, Yusuf

2018-05-01

This research is to create a model of flood control in the city of Surakarta using Servqual method and Importance Performance Analysis. Service quality is generally defined as the overall assessment of a service by the customersor the extent to which a service meets customer’s needs or expectations. The purpose of this study is to find the first model of flood control that is appropriate to the condition of the community. Surakarta This means looking for a model that can provide satisfactory service for the people of Surakarta who are in the location of the flood. The second is to find the right model to improve service performance of Surakarta City Government in serving the people in flood location. The method used to determine the satisfaction of the public on the quality of service is to see the difference in the quality of service expected by the community with the reality. This method is Servqual Method While to assess the performance of city government officials is by comparing the actual performance with the quality of services provided, this method is This means looking for a model that can provide satisfactory service for the people of Surakarta who are in the location of the flood.The second is to find the right model to improve service performance of Surakarta City Government in serving the people in flood location. The method used to determine the satisfaction of the public on the quality of service is to see the difference in the quality of service expected by the community with the reality. This method is Servqual Method While to assess the performance of city government officials is by comparing the actual performance with the quality of services provided, this method is Importance Performance Analysis. Samples were people living in flooded areas in the city of Surakarta. Result this research is Satisfaction = Responsiveness+ Realibility + Assurance + Empathy+ Tangible (Servqual Model) and Importance Performance Analysis is From Cartesian diagram can be made Flood Control Formula as follow: Food Control = High performance

New mechanism under International Flood Initiative toward robustness for flood management in the Asia Pacific region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murase, M.; Yoshitani, J.; Takeuchi, K.; Koike, T.

2015-12-01

Climate change is likely to result in increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events. It is imperative that a good understanding is developed of how climate change affects the events that are reflected in hydrological extremes such as floods and how practitioners in water resources management deal with them. Since there is still major uncertainty as to how the impact of climate change affect actual water resources management, it is important to build robustness into management schemes and communities. Flood management under such variety of uncertainty favors the flexible and adaptive implementation both in top-down and bottom-up approaches. The former uses projections of global or spatially downscaled models to drive resource models and project resource impacts. The latter utilizes policy or planning tools to identify what changes in climate would be most threatening to their long-range operations. Especially for the bottom-up approaches, it is essential to identify the gap between what should be done and what has not been achieved for disaster risks. Indicators or index are appropriate tools to measure such gaps, but they are still in progress to cover the whole world. The International Flood Initiative (IFI), initiated in January 2005 by UNESCO and WMO in close cooperation with UNU and ISDR, IAHS and IAHR, has promoted an integrated approach to flood management to take advantage of floods and use of flood plains while reducing the social, environmental and economic risks. Its secretariat is located in ICHARM. The initiative objective is to support national platforms to practice evidence-based disaster risk reduction through mobilizing scientific and research networks at national, regional and international levels. The initiative is now preparing for a new mechanism to facilitate the integrated approach for flood management on the ground regionally in the Asia Pacific (IFI-AP) through monitoring, assessment and capacity building.

Flood hydrology for Dry Creek, Lake County, Northwestern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, C.; Jarrett, R.D.

2004-01-01

Dry Creek drains about 22.6 square kilometers of rugged mountainous terrain upstream from Tabor Dam in the Mission Range near St. Ignatius, Montana. Because of uncertainty about plausible peak discharges and concerns regarding the ability of the Tabor Dam spillway to safely convey these discharges, the flood hydrology for Dry Creek was evaluated on the basis of three hydrologic and geologic methods. The first method involved determining an envelope line relating flood discharge to drainage area on the basis of regional historical data and calculating a 500-year flood for Dry Creek using a regression equation. The second method involved paleoflood methods to estimate the maximum plausible discharge for 35 sites in the study area. The third method involved rainfall-runoff modeling for the Dry Creek basin in conjunction with regional precipitation information to determine plausible peak discharges. All of these methods resulted in estimates of plausible peak discharges that are substantially less than those predicted by the more generally applied probable maximum flood technique. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Real-time flood extent maps based on social media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, Dirk; van Loenen, Arnejan; Roskam, Ruud; Wagemaker, Jurjen

2015-04-01

During a flood event it is often difficult to get accurate information about the flood extent and the people affected. This information is very important for disaster risk reduction management and crisis relief organizations. In the post flood phase, information about the flood extent is needed for damage estimation and calibrating hydrodynamic models. Currently, flood extent maps are derived from a few sources such as satellite images, areal images and post-flooding flood marks. However, getting accurate real-time or maximum flood extent maps remains difficult. With the rise of social media, we now have a new source of information with large numbers of observations. In the city of Jakarta, Indonesia, the intensity of unique flood related tweets during a flood event, peaked at 8 tweets per second during floods in early 2014. A fair amount of these tweets also contains observations of water depth and location. Our hypothesis is that based on the large numbers of tweets it is possible to generate real-time flood extent maps. In this study we use tweets from the city of Jakarta, Indonesia, to generate these flood extent maps. The data-mining procedure looks for tweets with a mention of 'banjir', the Bahasa Indonesia word for flood. It then removes modified and retweeted messages in order to keep unique tweets only. Since tweets are not always sent directly from the location of observation, the geotag in the tweets is unreliable. We therefore extract location information using mentions of names of neighborhoods and points of interest. Finally, where encountered, a mention of a length measure is extracted as water depth. These tweets containing a location reference and a water level are considered to be flood observations. The strength of this method is that it can easily be extended to other regions and languages. Based on the intensity of tweets in Jakarta during a flood event we can provide a rough estimate of the flood extent. To provide more accurate flood extend information, we project the water depth observations in tweets on a digital elevation model using a flood-fill algorithm. Based on statistical methods we combine the large numbers of observations in order to create time series of flood extent maps. Early results indicate this method is very promising.

Optical and Physical Methods for Mapping Flooding with Satellite Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fayne, Jessica Fayne; Bolten, John; Lakshmi, Venkat; Ahamed, Aakash

2016-01-01

Flood and surface water mapping is becoming increasingly necessary, as extreme flooding events worldwide can damage crop yields and contribute to billions of dollars economic damages as well as social effects including fatalities and destroyed communities (Xaio et al. 2004; Kwak et al. 2015; Mueller et al. 2016).Utilizing earth observing satellite data to map standing water from space is indispensable to flood mapping for disaster response, mitigation, prevention, and warning (McFeeters 1996; Brakenridge and Anderson 2006). Since the early 1970s(Landsat, USGS 2013), researchers have been able to remotely sense surface processes such as extreme flood events to help offset some of these problems. Researchers have demonstrated countless methods and modifications of those methods to help increase knowledge of areas at risk and areas that are flooded using remote sensing data from optical and radar systems, as well as free publically available and costly commercial datasets.

Global Rapid Flood Mapping System with Spaceborne SAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, S. H.; Owen, S. E.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Fattahi, H.; Liang, C.; Manipon, G.; Fielding, E. J.; Rosen, P. A.; Webb, F.; Simons, M.

2017-12-01

As part of the Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project for Natural Hazards, at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and California Institute of Technology, we have developed an automated system that produces derived products for flood extent map generation using spaceborne SAR data. The system takes user's input of area of interest polygons and time window for SAR data search (pre- and post-event). Then the system automatically searches and downloads SAR data, processes them to produce coregistered SAR image pairs, and generates log amplitude ratio images from each pair. Currently the system is automated to support SAR data from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1A/B satellites. We have used the system to produce flood extent maps from Sentinel-1 SAR data for the May 2017 Sri Lanka floods, which killed more than 200 people and displaced about 600,000 people. Our flood extent maps were delivered to the Red Cross to support response efforts. Earlier we also responded to the historic August 2016 Louisiana floods in the United States, which claimed 13 people's lives and caused over $10 billion property damage. For this event, we made synchronized observations from space, air, and ground in close collaboration with USGS and NOAA. The USGS field crews acquired ground observation data, and NOAA acquired high-resolution airborne optical imagery within the time window of +/-2 hours of the SAR data acquisition by JAXA's ALOS-2 satellite. The USGS coordinates of flood water boundaries were used to calibrate our flood extent map derived from the ALOS-2 SAR data, and the map was delivered to FEMA for estimating the number of households affected. Based on the lessons learned from this response effort, we customized the ARIA system automation for rapid flood mapping and developed a mobile friendly web app that can easily be used in the field for data collection. Rapid automatic generation of SAR-based global flood maps calibrated with independent observations from ground, air, and space will provide reliable snapshot extent of many flooding events. SAR missions with easy data access, such as the Sentinel-1 and NASA's upcoming NISAR mission, combined with the ARIA system, will enable forming a library of flood extent maps, which can soon support flood modeling community, by providing observation-based constraints.

Determining the most suitable areas for artificial groundwater recharge via an integrated PROMETHEE II-AHP method in GIS environment (case study: Garabaygan Basin, Iran).

PubMed

Nasiri, Hossein; Boloorani, Ali Darvishi; Sabokbar, Hassan Ali Faraji; Jafari, Hamid Reza; Hamzeh, Mohamad; Rafii, Yusef

2013-01-01

Flood spreading is a suitable strategy for controlling and benefiting from floods. Selecting suitable areas for flood spreading and directing the floodwater into permeable formations are amongst the most effective strategies in flood spreading projects. Having combined geographic information systems (GIS) and multi-criteria decision analysis approaches, the present study sought to locate the most suitable areas for flood spreading operation in the Garabaygan Basin of Iran. To this end, the data layers relating to the eight effective factors were prepared in GIS environment. This stage was followed by elimination of the exclusionary areas for flood spreading while determining the potentially suitable ones. Having closely examined the potentially suitable areas using the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) II and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) methods, the land suitability map for flood spreading was produced. The PROMETHEE II and AHP were used for ranking all the alternatives and weighting the criteria involved, respectively. The results of the study showed that most suitable areas for the artificial groundwater recharge are located in Quaternary Q(g) and Q(gsc) geologic units and in geomorphological units of pediment and Alluvial fans with slopes not exceeding 3%. Furthermore, significant correspondence between the produced map and the control areas, where the flood spreading projects were successfully performed, provided further evidence for the acceptable efficiency of the integrated PROMETHEE II-AHP method in locating suitable flood spreading areas.

PH Sensitive Polymers for Improving Reservoir Sweep and Conformance Control in Chemical Flooring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mukul Sharma; Steven Bryant; Chun Huh

There is an increasing opportunity to recover bypassed oil from depleted, mature oilfields in the US. The recovery factor in many reservoirs is low due to inefficient displacement of the oil by injected fluids (typically water). The use of chemical flooding methods to increase recovery efficiencies is severely constrained by the inability of the injected chemicals to contact the bypassed oil. Low sweep efficiencies are the primary cause of low oil recoveries observed in the field in chemical flooding operations even when lab studies indicate high oil recovery efficiency. Any technology that increases the ability of chemical flooding agents tomore » better contact the remaining oil and reduce the amount of water produced in conjunction with the produced oil will have a significant impact on the cost of producing oil domestically in the US. This translates directly into additional economically recoverable reserves, which extends the economic lives of marginal and mature wells. The objective of this research project was to develop a low-cost, pH-triggered polymer for use in IOR processes to improve reservoir sweep efficiency and reservoir conformance in chemical flooding. Rheological measurements made on the polymer solution, clearly show that it has a low viscosity at low pH and exhibits a sudden increase in viscosity (by 2 orders of magnitude or more) at a pH of 3.5 to 4. This implies that the polymer would preferentially flow into zones containing water since the effective permeability to water is highest in these zones. As the pH of the zone increases due to the buffering capacity of the reservoir rock, the polymer solution undergoes a liquid to gel transition causing a sharp increase in the viscosity of the polymer solution in these zones. This allows operationally robust, in-depth conformance treatment of such water bearing zones and better mobility control. The rheological properties of HPAM solutions were measured. These include: steady-shear viscosity and viscoelastic behavior as functions of pH; shear rate; polymer concentration; salinity, including divalent ion effects; polymer molecular weight; and degree of hydrolysis. A comprehensive rheological model was developed for HPAM solution rheology in terms of: shear rate; pH; polymer concentration; and salinity, so that the spatial and temporal changes in viscosity during the polymer flow in the reservoir can be accurately modeled. A series of acid coreflood experiments were conducted to understand the geochemical reactions relevant for both the near-wellbore injection profile control and for conformance control applications. These experiments showed that the use hydrochloric acid as a pre-flush is not viable because of the high reaction rate with the rock. The use of citric acid as a pre-flush was found to be quite effective. This weak acid has a slow rate of reaction with the rock and can buffer the pH to below 3.5 for extended periods of time. With the citric acid pre-flush the polymer could be efficiently propagated through the core in a low pH environment i.e. at a low viscosity. The transport of various HPAM solutions was studied in sandstones, in terms of permeability reduction, mobility reduction, adsorption and inaccessible pore volume with different process variables: injection pH, polymer concentration, polymer molecular weight, salinity, degree of hydrolysis, and flow rate. Measurements of polymer effluent profiles and tracer tests show that the polymer retention increases at the lower pH. A new simulation capability to model the deep-penetrating mobility control or conformance control using pH-sensitive polymer was developed. The core flood acid injection experiments were history matched to estimate geochemical reaction rates. Preliminary scale-up simulations employing linear and radial geometry floods in 2-layer reservoir models were conducted. It is clearly shown that the injection rate of pH-sensitive polymer solutions can be significantly increased by injecting it at a pH below 3.5 (at a fixed bottom-hole pressure). This improvement in injectivity by a factor of 2 to 10 can have a significant impact on the economics of chemical flooding and conformance control applications. Simulation tools and experimental data presented in this report help to design and implement such polymer injection projects.« less

Integrated flood hazard assessment based on spatial ordered weighted averaging method considering spatial heterogeneity of risk preference.

PubMed

Xiao, Yangfan; Yi, Shanzhen; Tang, Zhongqian

2017-12-01

Flood is the most common natural hazard in the world and has caused serious loss of life and property. Assessment of flood prone areas is of great importance for watershed management and reduction of potential loss of life and property. In this study, a framework of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) incorporating geographic information system (GIS), fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and spatial ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method was developed for flood hazard assessment. The factors associated with geographical, hydrological and flood-resistant characteristics of the basin were selected as evaluation criteria. The relative importance of the criteria was estimated through fuzzy AHP method. The OWA method was utilized to analyze the effects of different risk attitudes of the decision maker on the assessment result. The spatial ordered weighted averaging method with spatially variable risk preference was implemented in the GIS environment to integrate the criteria. The advantage of the proposed method is that it has considered spatial heterogeneity in assigning risk preference in the decision-making process. The presented methodology has been applied to the area including Hanyang, Caidian and Hannan of Wuhan, China, where flood events occur frequently. The outcome of flood hazard distribution presents a tendency of high risk towards populated and developed areas, especially the northeast part of Hanyang city, which has suffered frequent floods in history. The result indicates where the enhancement projects should be carried out first under the condition of limited resources. Finally, sensitivity of the criteria weights was analyzed to measure the stability of results with respect to the variation of the criteria weights. The flood hazard assessment method presented in this paper is adaptable for hazard assessment of a similar basin, which is of great significance to establish counterplan to mitigate life and property losses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hierarchical Bayesian GEV model for improving local and regional flood quantile estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Carlos H. R.; Lall, Upmanu; Troy, Tara; Devineni, Naresh

2016-10-01

We estimate local and regional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters for flood frequency analysis in a multilevel, hierarchical Bayesian framework, to explicitly model and reduce uncertainties. As prior information for the model, we assume that the GEV location and scale parameters for each site come from independent log-normal distributions, whose mean parameter scales with the drainage area. From empirical and theoretical arguments, the shape parameter for each site is shrunk towards a common mean. Non-informative prior distributions are assumed for the hyperparameters and the MCMC method is used to sample from the joint posterior distribution. The model is tested using annual maximum series from 20 streamflow gauges located in an 83,000 km2 flood prone basin in Southeast Brazil. The results show a significant reduction of uncertainty estimates of flood quantile estimates over the traditional GEV model, particularly for sites with shorter records. For return periods within the range of the data (around 50 years), the Bayesian credible intervals for the flood quantiles tend to be narrower than the classical confidence limits based on the delta method. As the return period increases beyond the range of the data, the confidence limits from the delta method become unreliable and the Bayesian credible intervals provide a way to estimate satisfactory confidence bands for the flood quantiles considering parameter uncertainties and regional information. In order to evaluate the applicability of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model for regional flood frequency analysis, we estimate flood quantiles for three randomly chosen out-of-sample sites and compare with classical estimates using the index flood method. The posterior distributions of the scaling law coefficients are used to define the predictive distributions of the GEV location and scale parameters for the out-of-sample sites given only their drainage areas and the posterior distribution of the average shape parameter is taken as the regional predictive distribution for this parameter. While the index flood method does not provide a straightforward way to consider the uncertainties in the index flood and in the regional parameters, the results obtained here show that the proposed Bayesian method is able to produce adequate credible intervals for flood quantiles that are in accordance with empirical estimates.

Organizing MySpace: Youth Walkouts, Pleasure, Politics, and New Media

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, K. Wayne

2007-01-01

While the major urban centers around the country were flooded by millions of protesters demanding immigrant rights in March 2006, the San Francisco Bay Area remained relatively quiet. A coalition of organizers, including Centro Legal de la Raza, Deporten A La Migra, and the Bay Area Immigrant Rights Coalition mobilized a one-week hunger strike,…

Field guide for mapping post-fire soil burn severity

Treesearch

Annette Parson; Peter R. Robichaud; Sarah A. Lewis; Carolyn Napper; Jess T. Clark

2010-01-01

Following wildfires in the United States, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of the Interior mobilize Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams to assess immediate post-fire watershed conditions. BAER teams must determine threats from flooding, soil erosion, and instability. Developing a postfire soil burn severity map is an important first step...

Influence Assessment of Multiple Large-sized Reservoirs on Flooding in the Huai River Watershed, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, X. Y.

2017-12-01

The extensive constructions of reservoirs change the hydrologic characteristics of the associated watersheds, which obviously increases the complexity of watershed flood control decisions. By evaluating the impacts of the multi-reservoir system on the flood hydrograph, it becomes possible to improve the effectiveness of the flood control decisions. In this paper we compare the non-reservoir flood hydrograph with the actual observed flood hydrograph using the Lutaizi upstream of Huai river in East China as a representative case, where 20 large-scale/large-sized reservoirs have been built. Based on the total impact of the multi-reservoir system, a novel strategy, namely reservoir successively added (RSA) method, is presented to evaluate the contribution of each reservoir to the total impact. According each reservoir contribution, the "highly effective" reservoirs for watershed flood control are identified via hierarchical clustering. Moreover, we estimate further the degree of impact of the reservoir current operation rules on the flood hydrograph on the base of the impact of dams themselves. As a result, we find that the RSA method provides a useful method for analysis of multi-reservoir systems by partitioning the contribution of each reservoir to the total impacts on the flooding at the downstream section. For all the historical large floods examined, the multi-reservoir system in the Huai river watershed has a significant impact on flooding at the downstream Lutaizi section, on average reducing the flood volume and peak discharge by 13.92 × 108 m3 and 18.7% respectively. It is more informative to evaluate the maximum impact of each reservoir (on flooding at the downstream section) than to examine the average impact. Each reservoir has a different impact on the flood hydrograph at the Lutaizi section. In particular, the Meishan, Xianghongdian, Suyahu, Nanwan, Nianyushan and Foziling reservoirs exert a strong influence on the flood hydrograph, and are therefore important for flood control on the Huai river. Under the current operation rules, the volume and peak discharge of flooding at the Lutaizi section are reduced by 13.69 × 108m3 and 1429 m3/s respectively, accounting for 98% and 80.5% of the real reduction respectively.

Long-term effects of flooding on mortality in England and Wales, 1994-2005: controlled interrupted time-series analysis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Limited evidence suggests that being flooded may increase mortality and morbidity among affected householders not just at the time of the flood but for months afterwards. The objective of this study is to explore the methods for quantifying such long-term health effects of flooding by analysis of routine mortality registrations in England and Wales. Methods Mortality data, geo-referenced by postcode of residence, were linked to a national database of flood events for 1994 to 2005. The ratio of mortality in the post-flood year to that in the pre-flood year within flooded postcodes was compared with that in non-flooded boundary areas (within 5 km of a flood). Further analyses compared the observed number of flood-area deaths in the year after flooding with the number expected from analysis of mortality trends stratified by region, age-group, sex, deprivation group and urban-rural status. Results Among the 319 recorded floods, there were 771 deaths in the year before flooding and 693 deaths in the year after (post-/pre-flood ratio of 0.90, 95% CI 0.82, 1.00). This ratio did not vary substantially by age, sex, population density or deprivation. A similar post-flood 'deficit' of deaths was suggested by the analyses based on observed/expected deaths. Conclusions The observed post-flood 'deficit' of deaths is counter-intuitive and difficult to interpret because of the possible influence of population displacement caused by flooding. The bias that might arise from such displacement remains unquantified but has important implications for future studies that use place of residence as a marker of exposure. PMID:21288358

Suppression of the Saffman-Taylor instability through injection of a finite slug of polymer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beeson-Jones, Timothy H.; Woods, Andrew W.

2014-11-01

During secondary oil recovery, relatively mobile water can channel through oil owing to the Saffman-Taylor instability. Injection of a finite slug of polymer solution from a central well prior to the water flood suppresses the growth of the instability by reducing the adverse mobility ratio at the leading interface. A linear stability analysis of an axisymmetric base state identifies how perturbations on the leading and trailing interfaces become coupled. It also reveals the dependence of the long-time algebraic growth of each mode on the mobility ratios across the two interfaces. The viscosity of the polymer solution which minimizes the growth rate of the instability is identified, and the impact of different slug sizes on this growth is described. Funded by EPSRC & BP.

Water-surface profile and flood boundaries for the computed 100-year flood, lower Salt River, Lincoln County, Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Kirk A.; Mason, John P.

2000-01-01

The water-surface profile and flood boundaries for the computed 100-year flood were determined for a part of the lower Salt River in Lincoln County, Wyoming. Channel cross-section data were provided by Lincoln County. Cross-section data for bridges and other structures were collected and compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey. Roughness coefficients ranged from 0.034 to 0.100. The 100-year flood was computed using standard methods, ranged from 5,170 to 4,120 cubic feet per second through the study reach, and was adjusted proportional to contributing drainage area. Water-surface elevations were determined by the standard step-backwater method. Flood boundaries were plotted on digital basemaps.

Origin, enzymatic response and fate of dissolved organic matter during flood and non-flood conditions in a river-floodplain system of the Danube (Austria).

PubMed

Sieczko, Anna; Peduzzi, Peter

2014-01-01

Spectroscopic techniques and extracellular enzyme activity measurements were combined with assessments of bacterial secondary production (BSP) to elucidate flood-pulse-linked differences in carbon (C) sources and related microbial processes in a river-floodplain system near Vienna (Austria). Surface connection with the main channel significantly influenced the quantity and quality of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in floodplain backwaters. The highest values of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chromophoric DOM (CDOM) were observed during the peak of the flood, when DOC increased from 1.36 to 4.37 mg l -1 and CDOM from 2.94 to 14.32 m -1 . The flood introduced DOC which consisted of more allochthonously-derived, aromatic compounds. Bacterial enzymatic activity, as a proxy to track the response to changes in DOM, indicated elevated utilization of imported allochthonous material. Based on the enzyme measurements, new parameters were calculated: metabolic effort and enzymatic indices (EEA 1 and EEA 2). During connection, bacterial glucosidase and protease activity were dominant, whereas during disconnected phases a switch to lignin degradation (phenol oxidase) occurred. The enzymatic activity analysis revealed that flooding mobilized reactive DOM, which then supported bacterial metabolism. No significant differences in overall BSP between the two phases were detected, indicating that heterogeneous sources of C sufficiently support BSP. The study demonstrates that floods are important for delivering DOM, which, despite its allochthonous origin, is reactive and can be effectively utilized by aquatic bacteria in this river-floodplain systems. The presence of active floodplains, characterized by hydrological connectivity with the main channel, creates the opportunity to process allochthonous DOC. This has potential consequences for carbon flux, enhancing C sequestration and mineralization processes in this river-floodplain system.

Telling and measuring urban floods: event reconstruction by means of public-domain media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macchia, S.; Gallo, E.; Claps, P.

2012-04-01

In the last decade, the diffusion of mobile telephones and ond of low-cost digital cameras have changed the public approach to catastrophes. As regards floods, it has become widespread the availability of images and videos taken in urban areas. Searching into Youtube or Youreporter, for example, one can understand how often citizen are considering to report even scary events. Nowadays these amateurs videos are often used in news world reports, which often increase or dampen the public perception of flood risk. More importantly, these amateur videos can play a crucial role in a didactic and technical representation of media flooding problems. The question so arise: why don't use the amateur videos for civil protection purposes? This work shows a new way to use flood images and videos to obtain technical data and spread safety information. Specifically, we show how to determine the height and speed of water flow, which have been achieved in some places during Genoa flood - 4th November 2011 - For this event we have downloaded more than 50 videos from different websites, where the authors have provided information about the time of recording, the geographical coordinates and the height above ground of the point of recording. The support by Google tools, such as Google maps and StreetWiew © has allowed us to geographically locate the recording points, so to put together shots and slides necessary to put together a whole reconstruction of the event. Future research will be in the direction of using these videos to generate a tool for the Google platforms, in order to address an easily achievable, yet accurate, information to the public, so to warn people on how to behave in front of imminent floods.

Mobile health use in low- and high-income countries: an overview of the peer-reviewed literature

PubMed Central

Bastawrous, Andrew; Armstrong, Matthew J

2013-01-01

The evolution of mobile phone technology has introduced new possibilities to the field of medicine. Combining technological advances with medical expertise has led to the use of mobile phones in all healthcare areas including diagnostics, telemedicine, research, reference libraries and interventions. This article provides an overview of the peer-reviewed literature, published between 1 August 2006 and 1 August 2011, for the application of mobile/cell phones (from basic text-messaging systems to smartphones) in healthcare in both resource-poor and high-income countries. Smartphone use is paving the way in high-income countries, while basic text-messaging systems of standard mobile phones are proving to be of value in low- and middle-income countries. Ranging from infection outbreak reporting, anti-HIV therapy adherence to gait analysis, resuscitation training and radiological imaging, the current uses and future possibilities of mobile phone technology in healthcare are endless. Multiple mobile phone based applications are available for healthcare workers and healthcare consumers; however, the absolute majority lack an evidence base. Therefore, more rigorous research is required to ensure that healthcare is not flooded with non-evidence based applications and is maximized for patient benefit. PMID:23564897

Flooding and Mental Health: A Systematic Mapping Review

PubMed Central

Fernandez, Ana; Black, John; Jones, Mairwen; Wilson, Leigh; Salvador-Carulla, Luis; Astell-Burt, Thomas; Black, Deborah

2015-01-01

Background Floods are the most common type of global natural disaster. Floods have a negative impact on mental health. Comprehensive evaluation and review of the literature are lacking. Objective To systematically map and review available scientific evidence on mental health impacts of floods caused by extended periods of heavy rain in river catchments. Methods We performed a systematic mapping review of published scientific literature in five languages for mixed studies on floods and mental health. PUBMED and Web of Science were searched to identify all relevant articles from 1994 to May 2014 (no restrictions). Results The electronic search strategy identified 1331 potentially relevant papers. Finally, 83 papers met the inclusion criteria. Four broad areas are identified: i) the main mental health disorders—post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety; ii] the factors associated with mental health among those affected by floods; iii) the narratives associated with flooding, which focuses on the long-term impacts of flooding on mental health as a consequence of the secondary stressors; and iv) the management actions identified. The quantitative and qualitative studies have consistent findings. However, very few studies have used mixed methods to quantify the size of the mental health burden as well as exploration of in-depth narratives. Methodological limitations include control of potential confounders and short-term follow up. Limitations Floods following extreme events were excluded from our review. Conclusions Although the level of exposure to floods has been systematically associated with mental health problems, the paucity of longitudinal studies and lack of confounding controls precludes strong conclusions. Implications We recommend that future research in this area include mixed-method studies that are purposefully designed, using more rigorous methods. Studies should also focus on vulnerable groups and include analyses of policy and practical responses. PMID:25860572

After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

2015-04-01

In early June 2013, severe flooding hit Central and Eastern Europe, causing extensive damage, in particular along the Danube and Elbe main watersheds. The situation was particularly severe in Eastern Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Based on the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) approach, developed by Zurich Insurance's Flood Resilience Program to provide independent review of large flood events, we examine what has worked well (best practice) and opportunities for further improvement. The PERC overall aims to thoroughly examine aspects of flood resilience, flood risk management and catastrophe intervention in order to help build back better after events and learn for future events. As our research from post event analyses shows a lot of losses are in fact avoidable by taking the right measures pre-event and these measures are economically - efficient with a return of 4 Euro on losses saved for every Euro invested in prevention on average (Wharton/IIASA flood resilience alliance paper on cost benefit analysis, Mechler et al. 2014) and up to 10 Euros for certain countries. For the 2013 flood events we provide analysis on the following aspects and in general identify a number of factors that worked in terms of reducing the loss and risk burden. 1. Understanding risk factors of the Central European Floods 2013 We review the precursors leading up to the floods in June, with an extremely wet May 2013 and an atypical V-b weather pattern that brought immense precipitation in a very short period to the watersheds of Elbe, Donau and partially the Rhine in the D-A-CH countries and researched what happened during the flood and why. Key questions we asked revolve around which protection and risk reduction approaches worked well and which did not, and why. 2. Insights and recommendations from the post event review The PERC identified a number of risk factors, which need attention if risk is to be reduced over time. • Yet another "100-year flood" - risk perception and understanding of risk in the population. • Residual risk and the levee shadow effect - why the population "felt safe." • What is the overload case and how to implement it in flood protection systems? • Decision-making for the future under uncertainty - how to design to acceptable flood protection levels if we haven't seen yet what's physically possible. 3. How to protect - practical examples Finally, we outline practical examples for reducing the loss burden and risk over time. • "Flood protection hierarchy" - from location choice under a hazard perspective to mobile flood protection. • Risk-based approach and identification of critical infrastructure. • Integrated flood risk management in theory and practical application. • Role of insurance.

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity I. A simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

The stationarity of annual flood peak records is the traditional assumption of flood frequency analysis. In some cases, however, as a result of land-use and/or climate change, this assumption is no longer valid. Therefore, new statistical models are needed to capture dynamically the change of probability density functions over time, in order to obtain reliable flood estimation. In this study, an innovative method for nonstationary flood frequency analysis was presented. Here, the new method is based on detrending the flood series and applying the L-moments along with the GEV distribution to the transformed ;stationary; series (hereafter, this is called the LM-NS). The LM-NS method was assessed through a comparative study with the maximum likelihood (ML) method for the nonstationary GEV model, as well as with the stationary (S) GEV model. The comparative study, based on Monte Carlo simulations, was carried out for three nonstationary GEV models: a linear dependence of the mean on time (GEV1), a quadratic dependence of the mean on time (GEV2), and linear dependence in both the mean and log standard deviation on time (GEV11). The simulation results indicated that the LM-NS method performs better than the ML method for most of the cases studied, whereas the stationary method provides the least accurate results. An additional advantage of the LM-NS method is to avoid the numerical problems (e.g., convergence problems) that may occur with the ML method when estimating parameters for small data samples.

The influence of an extended Atlantic hurricane season on inland flooding potential in the southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Monica H.; Cohen, Sagy

2017-03-01

Recent tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Katrina, have been some of the worst the United States has experienced. Tropical cyclones are expected to intensify, bringing about 20 % more precipitation, in the near future in response to global climate warming. Further, global climate warming may extend the hurricane season. This study focuses on four major river basins (Neches, Pearl, Mobile, and Roanoke) in the southeastern United States that are frequently impacted by tropical cyclones. An analysis of the timing of tropical cyclones that impact these river basins found that most occur during the low-discharge season and thus rarely produce riverine flooding conditions. However, an extension of the current hurricane season of June-November could encroach upon the high-discharge seasons in these basins, increasing the susceptibility for riverine hurricane-induced flooding. Our results indicate that 28-180 % more days would be at risk of flooding from an average tropical cyclone with an extension of the hurricane season to May-December (just 2 months longer). Future research should aim to extend this analysis to all river basins in the United States that are impacted by tropical cyclones in order to provide a bigger picture of which areas are likely to experience the worst increases in flooding risk due to a probable extension of the hurricane season with expected global climate change in the near future.

Towards the optimal fusion of high-resolution Digital Elevation Models for detailed urban flood assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leitão, J. P.; de Sousa, L. M.

2018-06-01

Newly available, more detailed and accurate elevation data sets, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) generated on the basis of imagery from terrestrial LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) systems or Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), can be used to improve flood-model input data and consequently increase the accuracy of the flood modelling results. This paper presents the first application of the MBlend merging method and assesses the impact of combining different DEMs on flood modelling results. It was demonstrated that different raster merging methods can have different and substantial impacts on these results. In addition to the influence associated with the method used to merge the original DEMs, the magnitude of the impact also depends on (i) the systematic horizontal and vertical differences of the DEMs, and (ii) the orientation between the DEM boundary and the terrain slope. The greater water depth and flow velocity differences between the flood modelling results obtained using the reference DEM and the merged DEMs ranged from -9.845 to 0.002 m, and from 0.003 to 0.024 m s-1 respectively; these differences can have a significant impact on flood hazard estimates. In most of the cases investigated in this study, the differences from the reference DEM results were smaller for the MBlend method than for the results of the two conventional methods. This study highlighted the importance of DEM merging when conducting flood modelling and provided hints on the best DEM merging methods to use.

Radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting using Spatial-scale Decomposition Method for Urban Flood Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, S.; Lee, B.; Nakakita, E.; Lee, G.

2016-12-01

Recent climate changes and abnormal weather phenomena have resulted in increased occurrences of localized torrential rainfall. Urban areas in Korea have suffered from localized heavy rainfall, including the notable Seoul flood disaster in 2010 and 2011. The urban hydrological environment has changed in relation to precipitation, such as reduced concentration time, a decreased storage rate, and increased peak discharge. These changes have altered and accelerated the severity of damage to urban areas. In order to prevent such urban flash flood damages, we have to secure the lead time for evacuation through the improvement of radar-based quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). The purpose of this research is to improve the QPF products using spatial-scale decomposition method for considering the life time of storm and to assess the accuracy between traditional QPF method and proposed method in terms of urban flood management. The layout of this research is as below. First, this research applies the image filtering to separate the spatial-scale of rainfall field. Second, the separated small and large-scale rainfall fields are extrapolated by each different forecasting method. Third, forecasted rainfall fields are combined at each lead time. Finally, results of this method are evaluated and compared with the results of uniform advection model for urban flood modeling. It is expected that urban flood information using improved QPF will help to reduce casualties and property damage caused by urban flooding through this research.

Developing a Decision Support System for Flood Response: NIMS/ICS Fundamentals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutenson, J. L.; Zhang, X.; Ernest, A. N. S.; Oubeidillah, A.; Zhu, L.

2015-12-01

Effective response to regional disasters such as floods requires a multipronged, non-linear approach to reduce loss of life, property and harm to the environment. These coordinated response actions are typically undertaken by multiple jurisdictions, levels of government, functional agencies and other responsible entities. A successful response is highly dependent on the effectiveness and efficiency of each coordinated response action undertaken across a broad spectrum of organizations and activities. In order to provide a unified framework for those responding to incidents or planned events, FEMA provides a common and flexible approach for managing incidents, regardless of cause, size, location or complexity, referred to as the National Incident Management System (NIMS). Integral to NIMS is the Incident Command System (ICS), which establishes a common, pre-defined organizational structure to ensure coordination and management of procedures, resources and communications, for efficient incident management. While being both efficient and rigorous, NIMS, and ICS to a lesser extent, is an inherently complex framework that requires significant amount of training for planners, responders and managers to master, especially considering the wide array of incident types that Local Emergency Planning Committees (LEPCs) must be prepared to respond to. The existing Water-Wizard Decision Support System (DSS), developed to support water distribution system recovery operations for Decontamination (Decon), Operational Optimization (WDS), and Economic Consequence Assessment (Econ), is being evolved to integrate incident response functions. Water-Wizard runs on both mobile and desktop devices, and is being extended to utilize smartphone and mobile device specific data streams (e.g GPS location) to augment its fact-base in real-time for situational-aware DSS recommendations. In addition, the structured NIMS and ICS frameworks for incident management and response are being incorporated into the Water-Wizard knowledgebase, with a mid-term goal of integrating flood-specific emergency response domain knowledge to provide a real-time flood responder decision support.

Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

2016-04-01

The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Experimental modelling of flow - bed interactions in Jökulhlaups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrivick, J. L.; Xie, Z.; Sleigh, A.; Hubbard, M.

2009-04-01

Jökulhlaups (glacial outburst floods) are a sudden release and advancing wave of water and sediment from a glacier, with a peak discharge that is often several orders of magnitude greater than perennial flows. Jökulhlaup hazards are regularly incorporated into risk assessments for glaciated areas because the associated flood hazards are numerous. Jökulhlaup hazards are primarily due to direct impacts, caused by a frontal surge wave, from debris within a flow body, and from the mass and consistency of the flows. A number of secondary impacts also pose hazards, including widespread deposition of sediment and blocked tributary streams. It is rapid landscape change, which is achieved the mobilization and redistribution of sediment that causes one of the greatest hazards due to jökulhlaups. However, direct measurement of such phenomena is virtually impossible. The aim of this project is therefore to parameterise hydrodynamic - sedimentary interactions in experimental jökulhlaups. Specifically, this project applies laboratory flume modelling, which offers a hitherto untapped opportunity for examining complex interactions between water and sediment within outburst floods. The experimental set-up is of a tradition lock-gate design with a straight 4 m long tank. Hydraulics are scaled at 1:20 froude scale and the following controls on frontal wave flow-bed interactions and hence on rapid landscape change are being investigated: 1. Pre-existing mobile sediment effects, fixed bed roughness effects, sediment concentration effects, mobile bed effects. An emphasis is being maintained on examining the downstream temporal and spatial change in physical character of the water / sediment frontal wave. Facilities are state-of-the-art with a fully-automated laser bed-profiler to measure bed elevation after a run, Seatek arrays to measure transient flow depths, 0.5 Hz Ultrasonic Velocimeter Profiling to measure within-flow velocities, and Ultrasonic High-Concentration Meter (UHCM) to measure sediment concentrations, for example, all at increments of space and time. These instruments can only be used without a mobile sediment bed and some could be rendered as a source of error because they are intrusive to the flow. Digital video and automated still photography is therefore also important for recording hydraulic and bedform changes through time in flows with freely-moving sediment. This paper will report initial results.

Designing Financial Instruments for Rapid Flood Response Using Remote Sensed and Archival Hazard and Exposure Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.; Allaire, M.; Ceccato, P.; Haraguchi, M.; Cian, F.; Bavandi, A.

2017-12-01

Catastrophic floods can pose a significant challenge for response and recovery. A key bottleneck in the speed of response is the availability of funds to a country or regions finance ministry to mobilize resources. Parametric instruments, where the release of funs is tied to the exceedance of a specified index or threshold, rather than to loss verification are well suited for this purpose. However, designing and appropriate index, that is not subject to manipulation and accurately reflects the need is a challenge, especially in developing countries which have short hydroclimatic and loss records, and where rapid land use change has led to significant changes in exposure and hydrology over time. The use of long records of rainfall from climate re-analyses, flooded area and land use from remote sensing to design and benchmark a parametric index considering the uncertainty and representativeness of potential loss is explored with applications to Bangladesh and Thailand. Prospects for broader applicability and limitations are discussed.

Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

2017-12-01

Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

Computation of backwater and discharge at width constrictions of heavily vegetated flood plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, V.R.; Board, J.W.; Colson, B.E.; Lee, F.N.; Druffel, Leroy

1977-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, cooperated with the Federal Highway Administration and the State Highway Departments of Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana, to develop a proposed method for computing backwater and discharge at width constrictions of heavily vegetated flood plains. Data were collected at 20 single opening sites for 31 floods. Flood-plain width varied from 4 to 14 times the bridge opening width. The recurrence intervals of peak discharge ranged from a 2-year flood to greater than a 100-year flood, with a median interval of 6 years. Measured backwater ranged from 0.39 to 3.16 feet. Backwater computed by the present standard Geological Survey method averaged 29 percent less than the measured, and that computed by the currently used Federal Highway Administration method averaged 47 percent less than the measured. Discharge computed by the Survey method averaged 21 percent more then the measured. Analysis of data showed that the flood-plain widths and the Manning 's roughness coefficient are larger than those used to develop the standard methods. A method to more accurately compute backwater and discharge was developed. The difference between the contracted and natural water-surface profiles computed using standard step-backwater procedures is defined as backwater. The energy loss terms in the step-backwater procedure are computed as the product of the geometric mean of the energy slopes and the flow distance in the reach was derived from potential flow theory. The mean error was 1 percent when using the proposed method for computing backwater and 3 percent for computing discharge. (Woodard-USGS)

A new approach for computing a flood vulnerability index using cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Paulo; Mourato, Sandra; Moreira, Madalena; Pereira, Luísa

2016-08-01

A Flood Vulnerability Index (FloodVI) was developed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and a new aggregation method based on Cluster Analysis (CA). PCA simplifies a large number of variables into a few uncorrelated factors representing the social, economic, physical and environmental dimensions of vulnerability. CA groups areas that have the same characteristics in terms of vulnerability into vulnerability classes. The grouping of the areas determines their classification contrary to other aggregation methods in which the areas' classification determines their grouping. While other aggregation methods distribute the areas into classes, in an artificial manner, by imposing a certain probability for an area to belong to a certain class, as determined by the assumption that the aggregation measure used is normally distributed, CA does not constrain the distribution of the areas by the classes. FloodVI was designed at the neighbourhood level and was applied to the Portuguese municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia where several flood events have taken place in the recent past. The FloodVI sensitivity was assessed using three different aggregation methods: the sum of component scores, the first component score and the weighted sum of component scores. The results highlight the sensitivity of the FloodVI to different aggregation methods. Both sum of component scores and weighted sum of component scores have shown similar results. The first component score aggregation method classifies almost all areas as having medium vulnerability and finally the results obtained using the CA show a distinct differentiation of the vulnerability where hot spots can be clearly identified. The information provided by records of previous flood events corroborate the results obtained with CA, because the inundated areas with greater damages are those that are identified as high and very high vulnerability areas by CA. This supports the fact that CA provides a reliable FloodVI.

Crowdsourcing detailed flood data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walliman, Nicholas; Ogden, Ray; Amouzad*, Shahrzhad

2015-04-01

Over the last decade the average annual loss across the European Union due to flooding has been 4.5bn Euros, but increasingly intense rainfall, as well as population growth, urbanisation and the rising costs of asset replacements, may see this rise to 23bn Euros a year by 2050. Equally disturbing are the profound social costs to individuals, families and communities which in addition to loss of lives include: loss of livelihoods, decreased purchasing and production power, relocation and migration, adverse psychosocial effects, and hindrance of economic growth and development. Flood prediction, management and defence strategies rely on the availability of accurate information and flood modelling. Whilst automated data gathering (by measurement and satellite) of the extent of flooding is already advanced it is least reliable in urban and physically complex geographies where often the need for precise estimation is most acute. Crowdsourced data of actual flood events is a potentially critical component of this allowing improved accuracy in situations and identifying the effects of local landscape and topography where the height of a simple kerb, or discontinuity in a boundary wall can have profound importance. Mobile 'App' based data acquisition using crowdsourcing in critical areas can combine camera records with GPS positional data and time, as well as descriptive data relating to the event. This will automatically produce a dataset, managed in ArcView GIS, with the potential for follow up calls to get more information through structured scripts for each strand. Through this local residents can provide highly detailed information that can be reflected in sophisticated flood protection models and be core to framing urban resilience strategies and optimising the effectiveness of investment. This paper will describe this pioneering approach that will develop flood event data in support of systems that will advance existing approaches such as developed in the in the UK in the more generalised RASP project (DEFRA and the Environment Agency), and in line with the expressed needs of the ABI (Association of British Insurers) and National Flood Forum. The detailed data produced will also support improved flood risk assessment for the provision of affordable insurance.

Flood susceptibility mapping using a novel ensemble weights-of-evidence and support vector machine models in GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tehrany, Mahyat Shafapour; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Jebur, Mustafa Neamah

2014-05-01

Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters that occur frequently in Terengganu, Malaysia. Recently, ensemble based techniques are getting extremely popular in flood modeling. In this paper, weights-of-evidence (WoE) model was utilized first, to assess the impact of classes of each conditioning factor on flooding through bivariate statistical analysis (BSA). Then, these factors were reclassified using the acquired weights and entered into the support vector machine (SVM) model to evaluate the correlation between flood occurrence and each conditioning factor. Through this integration, the weak point of WoE can be solved and the performance of the SVM will be enhanced. The spatial database included flood inventory, slope, stream power index (SPI), topographic wetness index (TWI), altitude, curvature, distance from the river, geology, rainfall, land use/cover (LULC), and soil type. Four kernel types of SVM (linear kernel (LN), polynomial kernel (PL), radial basis function kernel (RBF), and sigmoid kernel (SIG)) were used to investigate the performance of each kernel type. The efficiency of the new ensemble WoE and SVM method was tested using area under curve (AUC) which measured the prediction and success rates. The validation results proved the strength and efficiency of the ensemble method over the individual methods. The best results were obtained from RBF kernel when compared with the other kernel types. Success rate and prediction rate for ensemble WoE and RBF-SVM method were 96.48% and 95.67% respectively. The proposed ensemble flood susceptibility mapping method could assist researchers and local governments in flood mitigation strategies.

Probabilistic modelling of flood events using the entropy copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Fan; Zheng, Qian

2016-11-01

The estimation of flood frequency is vital for the flood control strategies and hydraulic structure design. Generating synthetic flood events according to statistical properties of observations is one of plausible methods to analyze the flood frequency. Due to the statistical dependence among the flood event variables (i.e. the flood peak, volume and duration), a multidimensional joint probability estimation is required. Recently, the copula method is widely used for multivariable dependent structure construction, however, the copula family should be chosen before application and the choice process is sometimes rather subjective. The entropy copula, a new copula family, employed in this research proposed a way to avoid the relatively subjective process by combining the theories of copula and entropy. The analysis shows the effectiveness of the entropy copula for probabilistic modelling the flood events of two hydrological gauges, and a comparison of accuracy with the popular copulas was made. The Gibbs sampling technique was applied for trivariate flood events simulation in order to mitigate the calculation difficulties of extending to three dimension directly. The simulation results indicate that the entropy copula is a simple and effective copula family for trivariate flood simulation.

Identification and delineation of areas flood hazard using high accuracy of DEM data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riadi, B.; Barus, B.; Widiatmaka; Yanuar, M. J. P.; Pramudya, B.

2018-05-01

Flood incidents that often occur in Karawang regency need to be mitigated. These expectations exist on technologies that can predict, anticipate and reduce disaster risks. Flood modeling techniques using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can be applied in mitigation activities. High accuracy DEM data used in modeling, will result in better flooding flood models. The result of high accuracy DEM data processing will yield information about surface morphology which can be used to identify indication of flood hazard area. The purpose of this study was to identify and describe flood hazard areas by identifying wetland areas using DEM data and Landsat-8 images. TerraSAR-X high-resolution data is used to detect wetlands from landscapes, while land cover is identified by Landsat image data. The Topography Wetness Index (TWI) method is used to detect and identify wetland areas with basic DEM data, while for land cover analysis using Tasseled Cap Transformation (TCT) method. The result of TWI modeling yields information about potential land of flood. Overlay TWI map with land cover map that produces information that in Karawang regency the most vulnerable areas occur flooding in rice fields. The spatial accuracy of the flood hazard area in this study was 87%.

Global and local scale flood discharge simulations in the Rhine River basin for flood risk reduction benchmarking in the Flagship Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Gusyev, Maksym; Magome, Jun; Sugiura, Ai; Cullmann, Johannes; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

2015-04-01

The global flood risk assessment is prerequisite to set global measurable targets of post-Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) that mobilize international cooperation and national coordination towards disaster risk reduction (DRR) and requires the establishment of a uniform flood risk assessment methodology on various scales. To address these issues, the International Flood Initiative (IFI) has initiated a Flagship Project, which was launched in year 2013, to support flood risk reduction benchmarking at global, national and local levels. In the Flagship Project road map, it is planned to identify the original risk (1), to identify the reduced risk (2), and to facilitate the risk reduction actions (3). In order to achieve this goal at global, regional and local scales, international research collaboration is absolutely necessary involving domestic and international institutes, academia and research networks such as UNESCO International Centres. The joint collaboration by ICHARM and BfG was the first attempt that produced the first step (1a) results on the flood discharge estimates with inundation maps under way. As a result of this collaboration, we demonstrate the outcomes of the first step of the IFI Flagship Project to identify flood hazard in the Rhine river basin on the global and local scale. In our assessment, we utilized a distributed hydrological Block-wise TOP (BTOP) model on 20-km and 0.5-km scales with local precipitation and temperature input data between 1980 and 2004. We utilized existing 20-km BTOP model, which is applied globally, and constructed the local scale 0.5-km BTOP model for the Rhine River basin. For the BTOP model results, both calibrated 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP models had similar statistical performance and represented observed flood river discharges, epecially for 1993 and 1995 floods. From 20-km and 0.5-km BTOP simulation, the flood discharges of the selected return period were estimated using flood frequency analysis and were comparable to the the river gauging station data at the German part of the Rhine river basin. This is an important finding that both 0.5-km and 20-km BTOP models produce similar flood peak discharges although the 0.5-km BTOP model results indicate the importance of scale in the local flood hazard assessment. In summary, we highlight that this study serves as a demonstrative example of institutional collaboration and is stepping stone for the next step implementation of the IFI Flagship Project.

New method for assessing the susceptibility of glacial lakes to outburst floods in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, A.; Vilímek, V.

2014-09-01

This paper presents a new and easily repeatable method for assessing the susceptibility of glacial lakes to outburst floods (GLOFs) within the Peruvian region of the Cordillera Blanca. The presented method was designed to: (a) be repeatable (from the point of view of the demands on input data), (b) be reproducible (to provide an instructive guide for different assessors), (c) provide multiple results for different GLOF scenarios and (d) be regionally focused on the lakes of the Cordillera Blanca. Based on the input data gained from remotely sensed images and digital terrain models/topographical maps, the susceptibility of glacial lakes to outburst floods is assessed using a combination of decision trees for clarity and numerical calculation for repeatability and reproducibility. A total of seventeen assessed characteristics are used, of which seven have not been used in this context before. Also, several ratios and calculations are defined for the first time. We assume that it is not relevant to represent the overall susceptibility of a particular lake to outburst floods by one result (number), thus it is described in the presented method by five separate results (representing five different GLOF scenarios). These are potentials for (a) dam overtopping resulting from a fast slope movement into the lake, (b) dam overtopping following the flood wave originating in a lake situated upstream, (c) dam failure resulting from a fast slope movement into the lake, (d) dam failure following the flood wave originating in a lake situated upstream and (e) dam failure following a strong earthquake. All of these potentials include two or three components and theoretically range from 0 to 1. The presented method was verified on the basis of assessing the pre-flood conditions of seven lakes which have produced ten glacial lake outburst floods in the past and ten lakes which have not. A comparison of these results showed that the presented method successfully identified lakes susceptible to outburst floods (pre-flood conditions of lakes which have already produced GLOFs).

Flood Hazards: Communicating Hydrology and Complexity to the Public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, R. R.; Blanchard, S. F.; Mason, R. R.

2010-12-01

Floods have a major impact on society and the environment. Since 1952, approximately 1,233 of 1,931 (64%) Federal disaster declarations were due directly to flooding, with an additional 297 due to hurricanes which had associated flooding. Although the overall average annual number of deaths due to flooding has decreased in the United States, the average annual flood damage is rising. According to the Munich Reinsurance Company in their publication “Schadenspiegel 3/2005”, during 1990s the world experienced as much as $500 billion in economic losses due to floods, highlighting the serious need for continued emphasis on flood-loss prevention measures. Flood-loss prevention has two major elements: mitigation (including structural flood-control measures and land-use planning and regulation) and risk awareness. Of the two, increasing risk awareness likely offers the most potential for protecting lives over the near-term and long-term sustainability in the coming years. Flood-risk awareness and risk-aware behavior is dependent on communication, involving both prescriptive and educational measures. Prescriptive measures (for example, flood warnings and stormwater ordinances) are and have been effective, but there is room for improvement. New communications technologies, particularly social media utilizing mobile, smart phones and text devices, for example, could play a significant role in increasing public awareness of long-term risk and near-term flood conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), for example, the Federal agency that monitors the Nation’s rivers, recently released a new service that can better connect the to the public to information about flood hazards. The new service, WaterAlert (URL: http://water.usgs.gov/wateralert/), allows users to set flood notification thresholds of their own choosing for any USGS real-time streamgage. The system then sends emails or text messages to subscribers whenever the threshold conditions are met, as often as the user specifies. In the future, with new GPS enabled cell-phones, notifications could be sent to users based on their proximity to flood hazards. Educational measures also should communicate the hydrologic underpinnings and uncertainties of the complex science of flood hydrology in an understandable manner to a non-technical public. Education can be especially beneficial and important for those in a policy-making role or those who find themselves in an area of potential flood hazards. Case studies, such as the fatal June 11, 2010 flash flood on the Little Missouri River in Arkansas, if presented in a way that the public will absorb, powerfully illustrate the importance of flood hazard awareness and the cost of living unaware. Additionally, such crucial points as the connection between the accuracy of flood-probability estimates and the density (and longevity) of the basic data sources (such as the USGS streamgage or the National Weather Service raingage networks) and the residual risks that both communities and individuals face have to continually be stressed to the general public and policy makers alike. In short, success in flood hazards communication (both prescriptive warnings and education) requires a fusion of the social sciences and hydrology.

Analysis of initial changes in the proteins of soybean root tip under flooding stress using gel-free and gel-based proteomic techniques.

PubMed

Yin, Xiaojian; Sakata, Katsumi; Nanjo, Yohei; Komatsu, Setsuko

2014-06-25

Flooding has a severe negative effect on soybean cultivation in the early stages of growth. To obtain a better understanding of the response mechanisms of soybean to flooding stress, initial changes in root tip proteins under flooding were analyzed using two proteomic techniques. Two-day-old soybeans were treated with flooding for 3, 6, 12, and 24h. The weight of soybeans increased during the first 3h of flooding, but root elongation was not observed. Using gel-based and gel-free proteomic techniques, 115 proteins were identified in root tips, of which 9 proteins were commonly detected by both methods. The 71 proteins identified by the gel-free proteomics were analyzed by a hierarchical clustering method based on induction levels during the flooding, and the proteins were divided into 5 clusters. Additional interaction analysis of the proteins revealed that ten proteins belonging to cluster I formed the center of a protein interaction network. mRNA expression analysis of these ten proteins showed that citrate lyase and heat shock protein 70 were down-regulated, whereas calreticulin was up-regulated in initial phase of flooding. These results suggest that flooding stress to soybean induces calcium-related signal transduction, which might play important roles in the early responses to flooding. Flooding has a severe negative effect on soybean cultivation, particularly in the early stages of growth. To better understand the response mechanisms of soybean to the early stages of flooding stress, two proteomic techniques were used. Two-day-old soybeans were treated without or with flooding for 3, 6, 12, and 24h. The fresh weight of soybeans increased during the first 3h of flooding stress, but the growth then slowed and no root elongation was observed. Using gel-based and gel-free proteomic techniques, 115 proteins were identified in root tips, of which 9 proteins were commonly detected by both methods. The 71 proteins identified by the gel-free proteomics were analyzed by a hierarchical clustering method based on induction levels during the flooding stress, and 5 protein clusters were recognized. Protein interaction analysis revealed that ten proteins belonging to cluster I formed the center of a protein interaction network. mRNA expression analysis of these ten proteins showed that citrate lyase and heat shock protein 70 were down-regulated in response to flooding stress, whereas calreticulin was up-regulated. These results suggest that flooding stress to soybean induces calcium-related signal transduction, which might play important roles in the early responses to flooding. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the hydrophysical soil properties as a part of self-regulated flood dams projection in gis-environment for sustainable urban development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikonorov, Aleksandr; Terleev, Vitaly; Badenko, Vladimir; Mirschel, Wilfried; Abakumov, Evgeny; Ginevsky, Roman; Lazarev, Viktor; Togo, Issa; Volkova, Yulia; Melnichuk, Aleksandr; Dunaieva, Ielizaveta; Akimov, Luka

2017-10-01

The problem of flood protection measures are considered in the paper. The regulation of river flow by the system of Self-Regulated Flood Dams (SRFD) is analyzed. The method of SRFD modeling in GIS environment is proposed. The question of the ecological aspect of the SRFD management is considered based on the hydrophysical properties of the soil. The improved Mualem-Van Genuchted method is proposed for the evaluation of the possible SRFD location influence on the soil of flooded territory - the temporary reservoirs. The importance and utility of the proposed complex method is stated.

The influence of pore structure parameters on the digital core recovery degree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Huifen; Zhao, Ling; Sun, Yanyu; Yuan, Shi

2017-05-01

Constructing digital core in the research of water flooding or polymer flooding oil displacement efficiency has its unique advantage. Using mercury injection experiment measured pore throat size distribution frequency, coordination number measured by CT scanning method and imbibition displacement method is used to measure the wettability of the data, on the basis of considering pore throat ratio, wettability, using the principle of adaptive porosity, on the basis of fitting the permeability to complete the construction of digital core. The results show that the model of throat distribution is concentrated water flooding recovery degree is higher, and distribution is more decentralized model polymer flooding recovery degree is higher. Around the same number of PV in poly, coordination number model of water flooding and polymer flooding recovery degree is higher.

Preliminary report on mercury geochemistry of placer gold dredge tailings, sediments, bedrock, and waters in the Clear Creek restoration area, Shasta County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ashley, Roger P.; Rytuba, James J.; Rogers, Ronald; Kotlyar, Boris B.; Lawler, David

2002-01-01

Clear Creek, one of the major tributaries of the upper Sacramento River, drains the eastern Trinity Mountains. Alluvial plain and terrace gravels of lower Clear Creek, at the northwest edge of the Sacramento Valley, contain placer gold that has been mined since the Gold Rush by various methods including dredging. In addition, from the 1950s to the 1980s aggregate-mining operations removed gravel from the lower Clear Creek flood plain. Since Clear Creek is an important stream for salmon production, a habitat restoration program is underway to repair damage from mining and improve conditions for spawning. This program includes using dredge tailings to fill in gravel pits in the flood plain, raising the concern that mercury lost to these tailings in the gold recovery process may be released and become available to biota. The purposes of our study are to determine concentrations and speciation of mercury in sediments, tailings, and water in the lower Clear Creek area, and to determine its mobility. Mercury concentrations in bedrock and unmined gravels both within and above the mined area are low, and are taken to represent background concentrations. Bulk mercury values in flood-plain sediments and dry tailings are elevated to several times these background concentrations. Mercury in sediments and tailings is associated with fine size fractions. Although methylmercury levels are generally low in sediments, shallow ponds in the flood plain may have above-normal methylation potential. Stream waters in the area show low mercury and methylmercury levels. Ponds with elevated methylmercury in sediments have more methylmercury in their waters as well. One seep in the area is highly saline, and enriched in mercury, lithium, and boron, similar to connate waters that are expelled along thrust faults to the south on the west side of the Sacramento Valley. This occurrence suggests that mercury in waters may at least in part be from sources other than placer mining.

Diachronic 3D modelling to monitor fluvial morphodynamics in a restored hydrosystem (Upper Rhine, Rohrschollen island)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koehl, Mathieu; Eschbach, David; Grussenmeyer, Pierre; Schmitt, Laurent; Guillemin, Samuel

2017-04-01

The Rohrschollen artificial island is a Natural Reserve located 8 km South-East the city of Strasbourg. The island results from several engineering works (correction and canalization) lead on the reach since the beginning of the 19th century to improve flood control, agriculture, navigation and to produce hydropower. Consequently, the main channel of the island (called old channel) was upstream disconnected, hydromorphological functioning was altered (narrowing and clogging, decreasing of morphodynamics and of surface water-groundwater exchanges…) and specific alluvial biodiversity declined drastically. In the framework of a LIFE+ European program, an ambitious restoration project was carried out by the city of Strasbourg with the aims to restore hydromorphological dynamics and improve typical ecological characteristics of the hydrosystem: bedload dynamics, channel mobility, surface water-groundwater exchanges and renewal of pioneer ecosystems… To achieve these objectives, a new upstream channel was dug in the floodplain and a large floodgate was built in order to reconnect the old channel with the Rhine. Water input is about 2 m3.s-1 and could attain a maximum of 80 m3.s-1 during Rhine's floods. This new hydrological dynamics allowed to recover dynamic floods and high morphological activities, especially on the new channel which was intentionally undersized. As part of the partnership between the LIVE laboratory and the INSA of Strasbourg, a monitoring of fluvial morphodynamics was carried out, based on a diachronic 3D modelling survey. Focused on three bending sectors of the channel, the initial state was realized in 2014, before the first flood, by a geo-referenced 3D model recorded by Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) and panoramic images. This method was used as a 3D digital reference model and setup by differential GNSS techniques. The long-term diachronic monitoring was based on terrestrial photogrammetry surveys followed by dense matching techniques after each flood. This low cost method has the advantage to be very fast in the acquisition. Bathymetrical data were collected by tacheometry and total station on the whole channel. Based on a diachronic comparison of the obtained models, morphological changes were analyzed and volumes of eroded/deposed sediments were quantified in detailed morphological budgets (elementary 20 m long sections). The 3D models will be complementary with other field techniques like the tracking of passive integrated transponders, active layer evolution and floodplain deposition survey. The results show the interest of the diachronic 3D modelling methods to estimate the intensity of the morphodynamic adjustments of the restored hydrosystem. These methods allows to (i) refine the understanding of the river dynamics on fine scale (sections), (ii) quantify sedimentary budgets on large scale (channel) and, (iii) predict evolutionary perspectives on the middle term. The PICO reports the various stages of the implementation of a topographic survey of the channel as well as an overview of the obtained results, in particular a morphological diachronic comparison of the channel.

Global Near Real-Time Satellite-based Flood Monitoring and Product Dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M.; Slayback, D. A.; Policelli, F.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Tokay, M.

2012-12-01

Flooding is among the most destructive, frequent, and costly natural disasters faced by modern society, with several major events occurring each year. In the past few years, major floods have devastated parts of China, Thailand, Pakistan, Australia, and the Philippines, among others. The toll of these events, in financial costs, displacement of individuals, and deaths, is substantial and continues to rise as climate change generates more extreme weather events. When these events do occur, the disaster management community requires frequently updated and easily accessible information to better understand the extent of flooding and better coordinate response efforts. With funding from NASA's Applied Sciences program, we have developed, and are now operating, a near real-time global flood mapping system to help provide critical flood extent information within 24-48 hours after flooding events. The system applies a water detection algorithm to MODIS imagery received from the LANCE (Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS) system at NASA Goddard. The LANCE system typically processes imagery in less than 3 hours after satellite overpass, and our flood mapping system can output flood products within ½ hour of acquiring the LANCE products. Using imagery from both the Terra (10:30 AM local time overpass) and Aqua (1:30 PM) platforms allows an initial assessment of flooding extent by late afternoon, every day, and more robust assessments after accumulating imagery over a longer period; the MODIS sensors are optical, so cloud cover remains an issue, which is partly overcome by using multiple looks over one or more days. Other issues include the relatively coarse scale of the MODIS imagery (250 meters), the difficulty of detecting flood waters in areas with continuous canopy cover, confusion of shadow (cloud or terrain) with water, and accurately identifying detected water as flood as opposed to normal water extents. We have made progress on some of these issues, and are working to develop higher resolution flood detection using alternate sensors, including Landsat and various radar sensors. Although these provide better spatial resolution, this comes at the cost of being less timely. As of late 2011, the system expanded to fully global daily flood monitoring, with free public access to the generated products. These include GIS-ready files of flood and normal water extent (KML, shapefile, raster), and small scale graphic maps (10 degrees square) showing regional flood extent. We are now expanding product distribution channels to include live web services (WMS, etc), allowing easier access via standalone apps. We are also working to bring our product into the Pacific Disaster Center's Disaster Alert system and mobile app for wider accessibility.

Phosphorus exchangeability and leaching losses from two grassland soils.

PubMed

Sinaj, S; Stamm, C; Toor, G S; Condron, L M; Hendry, T; Di, H J; Cameron, K C; Frossard, E

2002-01-01

Although phosphate phosphorus (P) is strongly sorbed in many soils, it may be quickly transported through the soil by preferential flow. Under flood irrigation, preferential flow is especially pronounced and associated solute losses may be important. Phosphorus losses induced by flood irrigation were investigated in a lysimeter study. Detailed soil chemical analyses revealed that P was very mobile in the topsoil, but the higher P-fixing capacity of the subsoil appeared to restrict P mobility. Application of a dye tracer enabled preferential flow pathways to be identified. Soil sampling according to dye staining patterns revealed that exchangeable P was significantly greater in preferential flow areas as compared with the unstained soil matrix. This could be partly attributed to the accumulation of organic carbon and P, together with enhanced leaching of Al- and Fe-oxides in the preferential flow areas, which resulted in reduced P sorption. The irrigation water caused a rapid hydrologic response by displacement of resident water from the subsoil. Despite the occurrence of preferential flow, most of the outflowing water was resident soil water and very low in P. In these soils the occurrence of preferential flow per se is not sufficient to cause large P losses even if the topsoil is rich in P. It appears that the P was retained in lower parts of the soil profile characterized by a very high P-fixing capacity. This study demonstrates the risks associated with assessing potential P losses on the basis of P mobility in the topsoil alone.

Channel widening due to urbanization and a major flood can alter bed particle organization and bed stability in an urban boulder-bed channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prestegaard, K. L.; Behrns, K.; Blanchet, Z.; Hankin, E.

2007-12-01

The Anacostia River is a tributary of the Potomac River north of Washington D.C. that has become progressively more urbanized in the past 50 years. Bankfull discharge and bankfull width in the Anacostia have increased by 3- 4x in the past 50 years. Nearby watersheds of similar size and geology, but without significant urbanization, contain threshold gravel-bed streams. The Anacostia, however, is not a threshold channel; it exhibits break-up of boulder-bed channels in upstream reaches and significant gravel bar formation in downstream reaches. These gravel bars have grown and migrated considerably in the past 10-15 years, contributing significantly to local channel widening that can be twice that of adjacent reaches. The purpose of this study is to determine bedload transport rates and grain size distributions and their relationship to discharge, bed organization and sediment supply. Bed mobility data come from both bedload transport measurements and measurements of channel bed changes. Channel bed changes were obtained from a) repeated channel cross section surveys, b) surface and subsurface size distributions, and c) bed particle organization measurements (measurements of location of particles within reaches). These measurements were made prior to and after the floods of 2006, which equalled the largest floods on record for most parts of the Anacostia River. In some boulder bed reaches, boulders were removed from the center of the channel and deposited along and on the channel banks. The mid-channel boulders were replaced by sheets of gravel and cobbles, significantly altering the bed mobility of the channels.

Tangible Results and Progress in Flood Risks Management with the PACTES Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costes, Murielle; Abadie, Jean-Paul; Ducuing, Jean-Louis; Denier, Jean-Paul; Stéphane

The PACTES project (Prévention et Anticipation des Crues au moyen des Techniques Spatiales), initiated by CNES and the French Ministry of Research, aims at improving flood risk management, over the following three main phases : - Prevention : support and facilitate the analysis of flood risks and socio-economic impacts (risk - Forecasting and alert : improve the capability to predict and anticipate the flooding event - Crisis management : allow better situation awareness, communication and sharing of In order to achieve its ambitious objectives, PACTES: - integrates state-of-the-art techniques and systems (integration of the overall processing chains, - takes advantage of integrating recent model developments in wheather forecasting, rainfall, In this approach, space technology is thus used in three main ways : - radar and optical earth observation data are used to produce Digital Elevation Maps, land use - earth observation data are also an input to wheather forecasting, together with ground sensors; - satellite-based telecommunication and mobile positioning. Started in December 2000, the approach taken in PACTES is to work closely with users such as civil security and civil protection organisms, fire fighter brigades and city councils for requirements gathering and during the validation phase. It has lead to the development and experimentation of an integrated pre-operational demonstrator, delivered to different types of operational users. Experimentation has taken place in three watersheds representative of different types of floods (flash and plain floods). After a breaf reminder of what the PACTES project organization and aims are, the PACTES integrated pre-operational demonstrator is presented. The main scientific inputs to flood risk management are summarized. Validation studies for the three watersheds covered by PACTES (Moselle, Hérault and Thoré) are detailed. Feedback on the PACTES tangible results on flood risk management from an user point of view are given. Costs of what an operational PACTES demonstrator could be, are discussed.

Lessons From the Largest Historic Floods Documented by the U.S. Geological Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, J. E.

2003-12-01

A recent controversy over the flood risk downstream from a USGS streamgaging station in southern California that recorded a large debris flow led to the decision to closely examine a sample of the largest floods documented in the US. Twenty-nine floods that define the envelope curve of the largest rainfall-runoff floods were examined in detail, including field visits. These floods have a profound impact on local, regional, and national interpretations of potential peak discharges and flood risk. These 29 floods occured throughout the US from the northern Chesapeake Bay in Maryland to Kauai, Hawaii, and over time from 1935-1978. Methods used to compute peak discharges were slope-area (21/29), culvert computations (2/29), measurements lost or not available for study (2/29), bridge contraction, culvert flow, and flow over road (1/29), rating curve extension (1/29), current meter measurement (1/29), and rating curve and current meter measurement (1/29). While field methods and tools have improved significantly over the last 70 years (e.g. total stations, GPS, GIS, hydroacoustics, digital plotters and computer programs like SAC and CAP), the primary methods of hydraulic analysis for indirect measurements of outstanding floods has not changed: today flow is still assumed to be 1-D and gradually varied. Unsteady or multi-dimensional flow models are rarely if ever used to determine peak discharges. Problems identified in this sample of 29 floods include debris flows misidentified as water floods, small drainage areas determined from small-scale maps and mislocated sites, high-water marks set by transient hydraulic phenomena, possibility of disconnected flow surfaces, scour assumptions in sand channels, poor site selection, incorrect approach angle for road overflow, and missing or lost records. Each published flood magnitude was checked by applying modern computer models with original field data, or by re-calculating computations. Four of 29 floods in this sample were found to have errors resulting in a change of the peak discharge of more than 10%.

Direct local building inundation depth determination in 3-D point clouds generated from user-generated flood images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griesbaum, Luisa; Marx, Sabrina; Höfle, Bernhard

2017-07-01

In recent years, the number of people affected by flooding caused by extreme weather events has increased considerably. In order to provide support in disaster recovery or to develop mitigation plans, accurate flood information is necessary. Particularly pluvial urban floods, characterized by high temporal and spatial variations, are not well documented. This study proposes a new, low-cost approach to determining local flood elevation and inundation depth of buildings based on user-generated flood images. It first applies close-range digital photogrammetry to generate a geo-referenced 3-D point cloud. Second, based on estimated camera orientation parameters, the flood level captured in a single flood image is mapped to the previously derived point cloud. The local flood elevation and the building inundation depth can then be derived automatically from the point cloud. The proposed method is carried out once for each of 66 different flood images showing the same building façade. An overall accuracy of 0.05 m with an uncertainty of ±0.13 m for the derived flood elevation within the area of interest as well as an accuracy of 0.13 m ± 0.10 m for the determined building inundation depth is achieved. Our results demonstrate that the proposed method can provide reliable flood information on a local scale using user-generated flood images as input. The approach can thus allow inundation depth maps to be derived even in complex urban environments with relatively high accuracies.

A New Approach to Flood Protection Design and Riparian Management

Treesearch

Philip B. Williams; Mitchell L. Swanson

1989-01-01

Conventional engineering methods of flood control design focus narrowly on the efficient conveyance of water, with little regard for environmental resource planning and natural geomorphic processes. Consequently, flood control projects are often environmentally disastrous, expensive to maintain, and even inadequate to control floods. In addition, maintenance programs...

Announcement/Subscription/Publication: Message Based Communication for Heterogeneous Mobile Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ristau, Henry

Many tasks in smart environments can be implemented using message based communication paradigms that decouple applications in time, space, synchronization and semantics. Current solutions for decoupled message based communication either do not support message processing and thus semantic decoupling or rely on clearly defined network structures. In this paper we present ASP, a novel concept for such communication that can directly operate on neighbor relations between brokers and does not rely on a homogeneous addressing scheme or anymore than simple link layer communication. We show by simulation that ASP performs well in a heterogeneous scenario with mobile nodes and decreases network or processor load significantly compared to message flooding.

Enter Sandbox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clucas, T.; Wirth, G. S.

2015-12-01

Interactive geospatial education tools can excite students and public audiences alike. Alaska EPSCoR and UAF GINA have taken one such tool - an augmented-reality sandbox invented at UC-Davis - and created a completely mobile version, which can be easily transported and deployed on and off the road system. In addition, EPSCoR has developed model curricula that use the sandbox to teach basic topography and hydrology skills. More advanced curricular modules in development will teach about flooding, tsunamis, and other hydrologic and landscape hazards. Instructions on building a mobile sandbox, curricula, and video of the sandbox in action are available at www.alaska.edu/epscor/Augmented-Reality%20Sandbox/

A Qualitative Analysis of the Spontaneous Volunteer Response to the 2013 Sudan Floods: Changing the Paradigm.

PubMed

Albahari, Amin; Schultz, Carl H

2017-06-01

Introduction While the concept of community resilience is gaining traction, the role of spontaneous volunteers during the initial response to disasters remains controversial. In an attempt to resolve some of the debate, investigators examined the activities of a spontaneous volunteer group called Nafeer after the Sudan floods around the city of Khartoum in August of 2013. Hypothesis Can spontaneous volunteers successfully initiate, coordinate, and deliver sustained assistance immediately after a disaster? This retrospective, descriptive case study involved: (1) interviews with Nafeer members that participated in the disaster response to the Khartoum floods; (2) examination of documents generated during the event; and (3) subsequent benchmarking of their efforts with the Sphere Handbook. Members who agreed to participate were requested to provide all documents in their possession relating to Nafeer. The response by Nafeer was then benchmarked to the Sphere Handbook's six core standards, as well as the 11 minimum standards in essential health services. A total of 11 individuals were interviewed (six from leadership and five from active members). Nafeer's activities included: food provision; delivery of basic health care; environmental sanitation campaigns; efforts to raise awareness; and construction and strengthening of flood barricades. Its use of electronic platforms and social media to collect data and coordinate the organization's response was effective. Nafeer adopted a flat-management structure, dividing itself into 14 committees. A Coordination Committee was in charge of liaising between all committees. The Health and Sanitation Committee supervised two health days which included mobile medical and dentistry clinics supported by a mobile laboratory and pharmacy. The Engineering Committee managed to construct and maintain flood barricades. Nafeer used crowd-sourcing to fund its activities, receiving donations locally and internationally using supporters outside Sudan. Nafeer completely fulfilled three of Sphere's core standards and partially fulfilled the other three, but none of the essential health services standards were fulfilled. Even though the Sphere Handbook was chosen as the best available "gold standard" to benchmark Nafeer's efforts, it showed significant limitations in effectively measuring this group. It appears that independent spontaneous volunteer initiatives, like Nafeer, potentially can improve community resilience and play a significant role in the humanitarian response. Such organizations should be the subject of increased research activity. Relevant bodies should consider issuing separate guidelines supporting spontaneous volunteer organizations. Albahari A , Schultz CH . A qualitative analysis of the spontaneous volunteer response to the 2013 Sudan floods: changing the paradigm. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(3):240-248.

Field Testing of Energy-Efficient Flood-Damage-Resistant Residential Envelope Systems Summary Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aglan, H.

2005-08-04

The primary purpose of the project was to identify materials and methods that will make the envelope of a house flood damage resistant. Flood damage resistant materials and systems are intended to be used to repair houses subsequent to flooding. This project was also intended to develop methods of restoring the envelopes of houses that have been flooded but are repairable and may be subject to future flooding. Then if the house floods again, damage will not be as extensive as in previous flood events and restoration costs and efforts will be minimized. The purpose of the first pair ofmore » field tests was to establish a baseline for typical current residential construction practice. The first test modules used materials and systems that were commonly found in residential envelopes throughout the U.S. The purpose of the second pair of field tests was to begin evaluating potential residential envelope materials and systems that were projected to be more flood-damage resistant and restorable than the conventional materials and systems tested in the first pair of tests. The purpose of testing the third slab-on-grade module was to attempt to dry flood proof the module (no floodwater within the structure). If the module could be sealed well enough to prevent water from entering, then this would be an effective method of making the interior materials and systems flood damage resistant. The third crawl space module was tested in the same manner as the previous modules and provided an opportunity to do flood tests of additional residential materials and systems. Another purpose of the project was to develop the methodology to collect representative, measured, reproducible (i.e. scientific) data on how various residential materials and systems respond to flooding conditions so that future recommendations for repairing flood damaged houses could be based on scientific data. An additional benefit of collecting this data is that it will be used in the development of a standard test procedure which could lead to the certification of building materials and systems as flood damage resistant.« less

An Evaluation of the Feasibility of Combining Carbon Dioxide Flooding Technologies with Microbial Enhanced Oil Recovery Technologies in Order To Sequester Carbon Dioxide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Todd French; Lew Brown; Rafael Hernandez

2009-08-19

The need for more energy as our population grows results in an increase in the amount of CO2 introduced into the atmosphere. The effect of this introduction is currently debated intensely as to the severity of the effect of this. The bjective of this investigation was to determine if the production of more energy (i.e. petroleum) and the sequestration of CO2 could be coupled into one process. Carbon dioxide flooding is a well-established technique that introduces Compressed CO2 into a subsurface oil-bearing formation to aide in liquefying harder to extract petroleum and enhancing its mobility towards the production wells.

The mobility of thiobencarb and fipronil in two flooded rice-growing soils.

PubMed

Doran, Gregory; Eberbach, Philip; Helliwell, Stuart

2008-08-01

The mobility of the rice pesticides thiobencarb (S-[(4-chlorophenyl) methyl] diethylcarbamothioate) and fipronil ([5-amino-3-cyano-1-[2,6-dichloro-4-(trifluoromethyl)phenyl]-4-[(trifluoromethyl)sulfinyl]pyrazole) were investigated in the glasshouse under flooded conditions using two Australian rice-growing soils. When using leakage rates of 10 mm day(-1), less than 20% of applied thiobencarb and fipronil remained in the water column after 10 days due to rapid transfer to the soil phase. Up to 70% and 65% of the applied thiobencarb and fipronil, respectively, were recovered from the 0-1 cm layer of soils. Only 5-7% of each pesticide was recovered from the 1-2 cm layer, and less than 2% was recovered from each 1 cm layer in the 2-10 cm region of the soils. Analysis of the water leaking from the base of the soil cores showed between 5-10% of the applied thiobencarb and between 10-20% of the applied fipronil leaching from the soil cores. The high levels of pesticide in the effluent was attributed to preferential flow of pesticide-laden water via soil macropores resulting from the wetting and drying process, worm holes and root channels.

Flood type specific construction of synthetic design hydrographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brunner, Manuela I.; Viviroli, Daniel; Sikorska, Anna E.; Vannier, Olivier; Favre, Anne-Catherine; Seibert, Jan

2017-02-01

Accurate estimates of flood peaks, corresponding volumes, and hydrographs are required to design safe and cost-effective hydraulic structures. In this paper, we propose a statistical approach for the estimation of the design variables peak and volume by constructing synthetic design hydrographs for different flood types such as flash-floods, short-rain floods, long-rain floods, and rain-on-snow floods. Our approach relies on the fitting of probability density functions to observed flood hydrographs of a certain flood type and accounts for the dependence between peak discharge and flood volume. It makes use of the statistical information contained in the data and retains the process information of the flood type. The method was tested based on data from 39 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland and provides catchment specific and flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs for all of these catchments. We demonstrate that flood type specific synthetic design hydrographs are meaningful in flood-risk management when combined with knowledge on the seasonality and the frequency of different flood types.

Design flood estimation in ungauged basins: probabilistic extension of the design-storm concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

Design flood estimation in ungauged basins is an important hydrological task, which is in engineering practice typically solved with the design storm concept. However, neglecting the uncertainty in the hydrological response of the catchment through the assumption of average-recurrence-interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff can lead to flawed design flood estimates. Additionally, selecting a single critical rainfall duration neglects the contribution of other rainfall durations on the probability of extreme flood events. In this study, the design flood problem is approached with concepts from structural reliability that enable a consistent treatment of multiple uncertainties in estimating the design flood. The uncertainty of key model parameters are represented probabilistically and the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM) is used to compute the flood exceedance probability. As an important by-product, the FORM analysis provides the most likely parameter combination to lead to a flood with a certain exceedance probability; i.e. it enables one to find representative scenarios for e.g., a 100 year or a 1000 year flood. Possible different rainfall durations are incorporated by formulating the event of a given design flood as a series system. The method is directly applicable in practice, since for the description of the rainfall depth-duration characteristics, the same inputs as for the classical design storm methods are needed, which are commonly provided by meteorological services. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study of Trauchgauer Ach catchment in Bavaria, SCS Curve Number (CN) and Unit hydrograph models are used for modeling the hydrological process. The results indicate, in accordance with past experience, that the traditional design storm concept underestimates design floods.

Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-12-01

The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.

Effects of episodic sediment supply on bedload transport rate in mountain rivers. Detecting debris flow activity using continuous monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchida, Taro; Sakurai, Wataru; Iuchi, Takuma; Izumiyama, Hiroaki; Borgatti, Lisa; Marcato, Gianluca; Pasuto, Alessandro

2018-04-01

Monitoring of sediment transport from hillslopes to channel networks as a consequence of floods with suspended and bedload transport, hyperconcentrated flows, debris and mud flows is essential not only for scientific issues, but also for prevention and mitigation of natural disasters, i.e. for hazard assessment, land use planning and design of torrent control interventions. In steep, potentially unstable terrains, ground-based continuous monitoring of hillslope and hydrological processes is still highly localized and expensive, especially in terms of manpower. In recent years, new seismic and acoustic methods have been developed for continuous bedload monitoring in mountain rivers. Since downstream bedload transport rate is controlled by upstream sediment supply from tributary channels and bed-external sources, continuous bedload monitoring might be an effective tool for detecting the sediments mobilized by debris flow processes in the upper catchment and thus represent an indirect method to monitor slope instability processes at the catchment scale. However, there is poor information about the effects of episodic sediment supply from upstream bed-external sources on downstream bedload transport rate at a single flood time scale. We have examined the effects of sediment supply due to upstream debris flow events on downstream bedload transport rate along the Yotagiri River, central Japan. To do this, we have conducted continuous bedload observations using a hydrophone (Japanese pipe microphone) located 6.4 km downstream the lower end of a tributary affected by debris flows. Two debris flows occurred during the two-years-long observation period. As expected, bedload transport rate for a given flow depth showed to be larger after storms triggering debris flows. That is, although the magnitude of sediment supply from debris flows is not large, their effect on bedload is propagating >6 km downstream at a single flood time scale. This indicates that continuous bedload observations could be effective for detecting sediment supply as a consequence of debris flow events.

Quantification of Uncertainty in the Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasiapillai Sudalaimuthu, K.; He, J.; Swami, D.

2017-12-01

Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is usually carried out for planning and designing of water resources and hydraulic structures. Owing to the existence of variability in sample representation, selection of distribution and estimation of distribution parameters, the estimation of flood quantile has been always uncertain. Hence, suitable approaches must be developed to quantify the uncertainty in the form of prediction interval as an alternate to deterministic approach. The developed framework in the present study to include uncertainty in the FFA discusses a multi-objective optimization approach to construct the prediction interval using ensemble of flood quantile. Through this approach, an optimal variability of distribution parameters is identified to carry out FFA. To demonstrate the proposed approach, annual maximum flow data from two gauge stations (Bow river at Calgary and Banff, Canada) are used. The major focus of the present study was to evaluate the changes in magnitude of flood quantiles due to the recent extreme flood event occurred during the year 2013. In addition, the efficacy of the proposed method was further verified using standard bootstrap based sampling approaches and found that the proposed method is reliable in modeling extreme floods as compared to the bootstrap methods.

Aqueous flooding methods for tertiary oil recovery

DOEpatents

Peru, Deborah A.

1989-01-01

A method of aqueous flooding of subterranean oil bearing formation for tertiary oil recovery involves injecting through a well into the formation a low alkaline pH aqueous sodium bicarbonate flooding solution. The flooding solution's pH ranges from about 8.25 to 9.25 and comprises from 0.25 to 5 weight percent and preferably about 0.75 to 3.0 weight percent of sodium bicarbonate and includes a petroleum recovery surfactant of 0.05 to 1.0 weight percent and between 1 and 20 weight percent of sodium chloride. After flooding, an oil and water mixture is withdrawn from the well and the oil is separated from the oil and water mixture.

Flood Extent Mapping Using Dual-Polarimetric SENTINEL-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar Imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, M.-J.; Osmanoglu, B.; Zhang, B.; Wdowinski, S.

2018-04-01

Rapid generation of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) based flood extent maps provide valuable data in disaster response efforts thanks to the cloud penetrating ability of microwaves. We present a method using dual-polarimetric SAR imagery acquired on Sentinel-1a/b satellites. A false-colour map is generated using pre- and post- disaster imagery, allowing operators to distinguish between existing standing water pre-flooding, and recently flooded areas. The method works best in areas of standing water and provides mixed results in urban areas. A flood depth map is also estimated by using an external DEM. We will present the methodology, it's estimated accuracy as well as investigations into improving the response in urban areas.

Assessment of the spatial scaling behaviour of floods in the United Kingdom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria

2017-04-01

Floods are among the most dangerous natural hazards, causing loss of life and significant damage to private and public property. Regional flood-frequency analysis (FFA) methods are essential tools to assess the flood hazard and plan interventions for its mitigation. FFA methods are often based on the well-known index flood method that assumes the invariance of the coefficient of variation of floods with drainage area. This assumption is equivalent to the simple scaling or self-similarity assumption for peak floods, i.e. their spatial structure remains similar in a particular, relatively simple, way to itself over a range of scales. Spatial scaling of floods has been evaluated at national scale for different countries such as Canada, USA, and Australia. According our knowledge. Such a study has not been conducted for the United Kingdom even though the standard FFA method there is based on the index flood assumption. In this work we present an integrated approach to assess of the spatial scaling behaviour of floods in the United Kingdom using three different methods: product moments (PM), probability weighted moments (PWM), and quantile analysis (QA). We analyse both instantaneous and daily annual observed maximum floods and performed our analysis both across the entire country and in its sub-climatic regions as defined in the Flood Studies Report (NERC, 1975). To evaluate the relationship between the k-th moments or quantiles and the drainage area we used both regression with area alone and multiple regression considering other explanatory variables to account for the geomorphology, amount of rainfall, and soil type of the catchments. The latter multiple regression approach was only recently demonstrated being more robust than the traditional regression with area alone that can lead to biased estimates of scaling exponents and misinterpretation of spatial scaling behaviour. We tested our framework on almost 600 rural catchments in UK considered as entire region and split in 11 sub-regions with 50 catchments per region on average. Preliminary results from the three different spatial scaling methods are generally in agreement and indicate that: i) only some of the peak flow variability is explained by area alone (approximately 50% for the entire country and ranging between the 40% and 70% for the sub-regions); ii) this percentage increases to 90% for the entire country and ranges between 80% and 95% for the sub-regions when the multiple regression is used; iii) the simple scaling hypothesis holds in all sub-regions with the exception of weak multi-scaling found in the regions 2 (North), and 5 and 6 (South East). We hypothesize that these deviations can be explained by heterogeneity in large scale precipitation and by the influence of the soil type (predominantly chalk) on the flood formation process in regions 5 and 6.

Fire flood method for recovering petroleum from oil reservoirs of low permeability and temperature

DOEpatents

Kamath, Krishna

1984-08-14

The present invention is directed to a method of enhanced oil recovery by fire flooding petroleum reservoirs characterized by a temperature of less than the critical temperature of carbon dioxide, a pore pressure greater than the saturated vapor pressure of carbon dioxide at said temperature (87.7.degree. F. at 1070 psia), and a permeability in the range of about 20 to 100 millidarcies. The in situ combustion of petroleum in the reservoir is provided by injecting into the reservoir a combustion supporting medium consisting essentially of oxygen, ozone, or a combination thereof. The heat of combustion and the products of this combustion which consist essentially of gaseous carbon dioxide and water vapor sufficiently decrease the viscosity of oil adjacent to fire front to form an oil bank which moves through the reservoir towards a recovery well ahead of the fire front. The gaseous carbon dioxide and the water vapor are driven into the reservoir ahead of the fire front by pressure at the injection well. As the gaseous carbon dioxide cools to less than about 88.degree. F. it is converted to liquid which is dissolved in the oil bank for further increasing the mobility thereof. By using essentially pure oxygen, ozone, or a combination thereof as the combustion supporting medium in these reservoirs the permeability requirements of the reservoirs are significantly decreased since the liquid carbon dioxide requires substantially less voidage volume than that required for gaseous combustion products.

A Mixed-Method Study of Princeville's Rebuilding from the Flood of 1999: Lessons on the Importance of Invisible Community Assets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yoon, Intae

2009-01-01

Guided by previous studies and the community assets perspective, a concurrent mixed-method case study was conducted five years after a devastating flood to investigate how invisible community assets played a role in Princeville's rebuilding process from the flood of 1999. The independent variables in this study included retrospectively assessed…

Methods for delineating flood-prone areas in the Great Basin of Nevada and adjacent states

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkham, D.E.

1988-01-01

The Great Basin is a region of about 210,000 square miles having no surface drainage to the ocean; it includes most of Nevada and parts of Utah, California, Oregon, Idaho, and Wyoming. The area is characterized by many parallel mountain ranges and valleys trending north-south. Stream channels usually are well defined and steep within the mountains, but on reaching the alluvial fan at the canyon mouth, they may diverge into numerous distributary channels, be discontinuous near the apex of the fan, or be deeply entrenched in the alluvial deposits. Larger rivers normally have well-defined channels to or across the valley floors, but all terminate at lakes or playas. Major floods occur in most parts of the Great Basin and result from snowmelt, frontal-storm rainfall, and localized convective rainfall. Snowmelt floods typically occur during April-June. Floods resulting from frontal rain and frontal rain on snow generally occur during November-March. Floods resulting from convective-type rainfall during localized thunderstorms occur most commonly during the summer months. Methods for delineating flood-prone areas are grouped into five general categories: Detailed, historical, analytical, physiographic, and reconnaissance. The detailed and historical methods are comprehensive methods; the analytical and physiographic are intermediate; and the reconnaissance method is only approximate. Other than the reconnaissance method, each method requires determination of a T-year discharge (the peak rate of flow during a flood with long-term average recurrence interval of T years) and T-year profile and the development of a flood-boundary map. The procedure is different, however, for each method. Appraisal of the applicability of each method included consideration of its technical soundness, limitations and uncertainties, ease of use, and costs in time and money. Of the five methods, the detailed method is probably the most accurate, though most expensive. It is applicable to hydraulic and topographic conditions found in many parts of the Great Basin. The historical method is also applicable over a wide range of conditions and is less expensive than the detailed method. However, it requires more historical flood data than are usually available, and experience and judgement are needed to obtain meaningful results. The analytical method is also less expensive than the detailed method and can be used over a wide range of conditions in which the T-year discharge can be determined directly. Experience, good judgement, and thorough knowledge of hydraulic principles are required to obtain adequate results, and the method has limited application in other than rigid-channel situations. The physiographic method is applicable to rigid-boundary channels and is less accurate than the detailed method. The reconnaissance method is relatively imprecise, but it may be the most rational method to use on alluvial fans or valley floors with discontinuous channels. In general, a comprehensive method is most suitable for use with rigid-bank streams in urban areas; only an approximate method seems justified in undeveloped areas.

Use of an innovative design mobile hospital in the medical response to Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Blackwell, Thomas; Bosse, Michael

2007-05-01

On August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina caused widespread devastation to the Gulf Coast region of the United States. Although New Orleans had extensive damage from flooding, many communities in Mississippi had equal damage from storm surge and wind. Because the medical resources in many of these areas were incapacitated, resources from North Carolina were deployed to assist in the medical mission. This response included the initial use of Carolinas MED-1, a mobile hospital that incorporates an emergency department, surgical suite, critical care beds, and general treatment and admitting area. This asset, along with additional state resources, provided comprehensive diagnostic and definitive patient care until the local medical infrastructure was rebuilt and functional. The use of a mobile hospital may be advantageous for future deployments to large-scale disasters, especially when integrated with specialty teams.

The weighted function method: A handy tool for flood frequency analysis or just a curiosity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Strupczewski, Witold G.

2018-04-01

The idea of the Weighted Function (WF) method for estimation of Pearson type 3 (Pe3) distribution introduced by Ma in 1984 has been revised and successfully applied for shifted inverse Gaussian (IGa3) distribution. Also the conditions of WF applicability to a shifted distribution have been formulated. The accuracy of WF flood quantiles for both Pe3 and IGa3 distributions was assessed by Monte Caro simulations under the true and false distribution assumption versus the maximum likelihood (MLM), moment (MOM) and L-moments (LMM) methods. Three datasets of annual peak flows of Polish catchments serve the case studies to compare the results of the WF, MOM, MLM and LMM performance for the real flood data. For the hundred-year flood the WF method revealed the explicit superiority only over the MLM surpassing the MOM and especially LMM both for the true and false distributional assumption with respect to relative bias and relative mean root square error values. Generally, the WF method performs well and for hydrological sample size and constitutes good alternative for the estimation of the flood upper quantiles.

Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, J.; Song, L.; Zou, Q.; Guo, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-02-01

In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

Proposal for a quantitative index of flood disasters.

PubMed

Feng, Lihua; Luo, Gaoyuan

2010-07-01

Drawing on calculations of wind scale and earthquake magnitude, this paper develops a new quantitative method for measuring flood magnitude and disaster intensity. Flood magnitude is the quantitative index that describes the scale of a flood; the flood's disaster intensity is the quantitative index describing the losses caused. Both indices have numerous theoretical and practical advantages with definable concepts and simple applications, which lend them key practical significance.

Do Natural Disasters Affect Voting Behavior? Evidence from Croatian Floods

PubMed Central

Bovan, Kosta; Banai, Benjamin; Pavela Banai, Irena

2018-01-01

Introduction: Studies show that natural disasters influence voters’ perception of incumbent politicians. To investigate whether voters are prone to punish politicians for events that are out of their control, this study was conducted in the previously unstudied context of Croatia, and by considering some of the methodological issues of previous studies. Method: Matching method technique was used, which ensures that affected and non-affected areas are matched on several control variables. The cases of natural disaster in the present study were floods that affected Croatia in 2014 and 2015. Results: Main results showed that, prior to matching, floods had an impact on voting behaviour in the 2014 and 2015 elections. Voters from flooded areas decreased their support for the incumbent government and president in the elections following the floods. However, once we accounted for differences in control variables between flooded and non-flooded areas, the flood effect disappeared. Furthermore, results showed that neither the presence nor the amount of the government’s relief spending had an impact on voting behaviour. Discussion: Presented results imply that floods did not have an impact on the election outcome. Results are interpreted in light of the retrospective voter model. PMID:29770268

Mapping Infected Area after a Flash-Flooding Storm Using Multi Criteria Analysis and Spectral Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Akad, S.; Akensous, Y.; Hakdaoui, M.

2017-11-01

This research article is summarize the applications of remote sensing and GIS to study the urban floods risk in Al Mukalla. Satellite acquisition of a flood event on October 2015 in Al Mukalla (Yemen) by using flood risk mapping techniques illustrate the potential risk present in this city. Satellite images (The Landsat and DEM images data were atmospherically corrected, radiometric corrected, and geometric and topographic distortions rectified.) are used for flood risk mapping to afford a hazard (vulnerability) map. This map is provided by applying image-processing techniques and using geographic information system (GIS) environment also the application of NDVI, NDWI index, and a method to estimate the flood-hazard areas. Four factors were considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the hazardous areas: flow accumulation, slope, land use, geology and elevation. The multi-criteria analysis, allowing to deal with vulnerability to flooding, as well as mapping areas at the risk of flooding of the city Al Mukalla. The main object of this research is to provide a simple and rapid method to reduce and manage the risks caused by flood in Yemen by take as example the city of Al Mukalla.

Comparison of methods for estimating flood magnitudes on small streams in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Glen W.; Price, McGlone

1989-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has collected flood data for small, natural streams at many sites throughout Georgia during the past 20 years. Flood-frequency relations were developed for these data using four methods: (1) observed (log-Pearson Type III analysis) data, (2) rainfall-runoff model, (3) regional regression equations, and (4) map-model combination. The results of the latter three methods were compared to the analyses of the observed data in order to quantify the differences in the methods and determine if the differences are statistically significant.

Group decision-making approach for flood vulnerability identification using the fuzzy VIKOR method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, G.; Jun, K. S.; Chung, E.-S.

2015-04-01

This study proposes an improved group decision making (GDM) framework that combines the VIKOR method with data fuzzification to quantify the spatial flood vulnerability including multiple criteria. In general, GDM method is an effective tool for formulating a compromise solution that involves various decision makers since various stakeholders may have different perspectives on their flood risk/vulnerability management responses. The GDM approach is designed to achieve consensus building that reflects the viewpoints of each participant. The fuzzy VIKOR method was developed to solve multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problems with conflicting and noncommensurable criteria. This comprising method can be used to obtain a nearly ideal solution according to all established criteria. This approach effectively can propose some compromising decisions by combining the GDM method and fuzzy VIKOR method. The spatial flood vulnerability of the southern Han River using the GDM approach combined with the fuzzy VIKOR method was compared with the spatial flood vulnerability using general MCDM methods, such as the fuzzy TOPSIS and classical GDM methods (i.e., Borda, Condorcet, and Copeland). As a result, the proposed fuzzy GDM approach can reduce the uncertainty in the data confidence and weight derivation techniques. Thus, the combination of the GDM approach with the fuzzy VIKOR method can provide robust prioritization because it actively reflects the opinions of various groups and considers uncertainty in the input data.

Using cost-benefit concepts in design floods improves communication of uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganora, Daniele; Botto, Anna; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis, i.e. the study of the relationships between the magnitude and the rarity of high flows in a river, is the usual procedure adopted to assess flood hazard, preliminary to the plan/design of flood protection measures. It grounds on the fit of a probability distribution to the peak discharge values recorded in gauging stations and the final estimates over a region are thus affected by uncertainty, due to the limited sample availability and of the possible alternatives in terms of the probabilistic model and the parameter estimation methods used. In the last decade, the scientific community dealt with this issue by developing a number of methods to quantify such uncertainty components. Usually, uncertainty is visually represented through confidence bands, which are easy to understand, but are not yet demonstrated to be useful for design purposes: they usually disorient decision makers, as the design flood is no longer univocally defined, making the decision process undetermined. These considerations motivated the development of the uncertainty-compliant design flood estimator (UNCODE) procedure (Botto et al., 2014) that allows one to select meaningful flood design values accounting for the associated uncertainty by considering additional constraints based on cost-benefit criteria. This method suggests an explicit multiplication factor that corrects the traditional (without uncertainty) design flood estimates to incorporate the effects of uncertainty in the estimate at the same safety level. Even though the UNCODE method was developed for design purposes, it can represent a powerful and robust tool to help clarifying the effects of the uncertainty in statistical estimation. As the process produces increased design flood estimates, this outcome demonstrates how uncertainty leads to more expensive flood protection measures, or insufficiency of current defenses. Moreover, the UNCODE approach can be used to assess the "value" of data, as the costs of flood prevention can get down by reducing uncertainty with longer observed flood records. As the multiplication factor is dimensionless, some examples of application provided show how this approach allows simple comparisons of the effects of uncertainty in different catchments, helping to build ranking procedures for planning purposes. REFERENCES Botto, A., Ganora, D., Laio, F., and Claps, P.: Uncertainty compliant design flood estimation, Water Resources Research, 50, doi:10.1002/2013WR014981, 2014.

Data assimilation of citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayama, T.; Takara, K. T.

2017-12-01

Many studies in data assimilation in hydrology have focused on the integration of satellite remote sensing and in-situ monitoring data into hydrologic or land surface models. For flood predictions also, recent studies have demonstrated to assimilate remotely sensed inundation information with flood inundation models. In actual flood disaster situations, citizen collected information including local reports by residents and rescue teams and more recently tweets via social media also contain valuable information. The main interest of this study is how to effectively use such citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping. Here we propose a new data assimilation technique based on pre-conducted ensemble inundation simulations and update inundation depth distributions sequentially when local data becomes available. The propose method is composed by the following two-steps. The first step is based on weighting average of preliminary ensemble simulations, whose weights are updated by Bayesian approach. The second step is based on an optimal interpolation, where the covariance matrix is calculated from the ensemble simulations. The proposed method was applied to case studies including an actual flood event occurred. It considers two situations with more idealized one by assuming continuous flood inundation depth information is available at multiple locations. The other one, which is more realistic case during such a severe flood disaster, assumes uncertain and non-continuous information is available to be assimilated. The results show that, in the first idealized situation, the large scale inundation during the flooding was estimated reasonably with RMSE < 0.4 m in average. For the second more realistic situation, the error becomes larger (RMSE 0.5 m) and the impact of the optimal interpolation becomes comparatively less effective. Nevertheless, the applications of the proposed data assimilation method demonstrated a high potential of this method for assimilating citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping in the future.

Stability of a secondary-type recovery process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, S.C.

1970-04-21

To provide good mobility control and to protect the components of the micellar dispersion displacing fluid from ''leaching'' into the drive fluid (water), the front portion of the drive fluid contained a mobility reducing agent, an electrolyte, and a semipolar organic compound. Berea sandstone cores (20.2 percent porosity, 336 md permeability) were saturated with water from Henry lease in Illinois (18,000 ppM TDS), flooded with sweet black crude oil (7 cp at 72/sup 0/F) from the Henry lease, and waterflooded with Henry lease water. A recovery of 93.9 percent of original oil in place was obtained by a micellar dispersionmore » followed by the mobility buffer. The micellar dispersion contained ammonium petroleum sulfonate, crude column overhead (a heavy naptha), isopropanol, p-nonyl phenol, water and sodium hydroxide. No. 530 Pusher, water from the Palestine water reservoir in Palestine, Illinois (450 ppM TDS), 50 ppM ammonium thiocyanate, n-butanol, and isopropyl alcohol (to facilitate the solubilization of the polymer) were in the mobility buffer.« less

Stability of a secondary-type recovery process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, S.C.

1970-07-14

To provide good mobility control and to protect the components of the micellar dispersion displacing fluid from ''leaching'' into the drive fluid (water), the front portion of the drive fluid contained a mobility reducing agent, an electrolyte, and a semipolar organic compound. Berea sandstone cores (20.2 percent porosity, 336 md permeability) were saturated with water from Henry lease in Illinois (18,000 ppM TDS), flooded with sweet black crude oil (7 cp at 72/sup 0/F) from the Henry lease, and waterflooded with Henry lease water. A recovery of 93.9 percent of original oil in place was obtained by a micellar dispersionmore » followed by the mobility buffer. The micellar dispersion contained ammonium petroleum sulfonate, crude column overhead (a heavy naptha), isopropanol, p-nonyl phenol, water and sodium hydroxide. No. 530 Pusher, water from the Palestine water reservoir in Palestine, Illinois (450 ppM TDS), 50 ppM ammonium thiocyanate, n-butanol, and isopropyl alcohol (to facilitate the solubilization of the polymer) were in the mobility buffer.« less

Designing an 'expert knowledge' based approach for the quantification of historical floods - the case study of the Kinzig catchment in Southwest Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bösmeier, Annette; Glaser, Rüdiger; Stahl, Kerstin; Himmelsbach, Iso; Schönbein, Johannes

2017-04-01

Future estimations of flood hazard and risk for developing optimal coping and adaption strategies inevitably include considerations of the frequency and magnitude of past events. Methods of historical climatology represent one way of assessing flood occurrences beyond the period of instrumental measurements and can thereby substantially help to extend the view into the past and to improve modern risk analysis. Such historical information can be of additional value and has been used in statistical approaches like Bayesian flood frequency analyses during recent years. However, the derivation of quantitative values from vague descriptive information of historical sources remains a crucial challenge. We explored possibilities of parametrization of descriptive flood related data specifically for the assessment of historical floods in a framework that combines a hermeneutical approach with mathematical and statistical methods. This study forms part of the transnational, Franco-German research project TRANSRISK2 (2014 - 2017), funded by ANR and DFG, with the focus on exploring the floods history of the last 300 years for the regions of Upper and Middle Rhine. A broad data base of flood events had been compiled, dating back to AD 1500. The events had been classified based on hermeneutical methods, depending on intensity, spatial dimension, temporal structure, damages and mitigation measures associated with the specific events. This indexed database allowed the exploration of a link between descriptive data and quantitative information for the overlapping time period of classified floods and instrumental measurements since the end of the 19th century. Thereby, flood peak discharges as a quantitative measure of the severity of a flood were used to assess the discharge intervals for flood classes (upper and lower thresholds) within different time intervals for validating the flood classification, as well as examining the trend in the perception threshold over time. Furthermore, within a suitable time period, flood classes and other quantifiable indicators of flood intensity (number of damaged locations mentioned in historical sources, general availability of reports associated with a specific event) were combined with available peak discharges measurements. We argue that this information can be considered as 'expert knowledge' and used it to develop a fuzzy rule based model for deriving peak discharge estimates of pre-instrumental events that can finally be introduced into a flood frequency analysis.

Development of a Recommender System based on Personal History

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Katsuaki; Hori, Koichi; Yamamoto, Masato

The flood of information on the Internet makes a person who surf it without some strong intention strayed into it. One of the ways to control the balance between a person and the flood is a recommender system by computer, and many web sites use it. These systems work on a web site for the same kind of items. However the field of personal activity is not limited to handle the same kind of thing and a web site, but also offline area in the real world. To handle personal offline activities, LifeLog is proposed as method to record it, but the main purpose of LifeLog is recording a personal history. How to use a history has still been studied stage. The authors have developed a recommender system that captures personal context from history of personal online and offline activities, treats information on web sites as a large set of context, and finds out and extends overlap of them, then recommends information located there. The aim of the system is that a person can enjoy waves of information again. The system worked as a part of My-life Assist Service. It was a service for mobile phones provided by NTT DoCoMo, Inc. as a field experiment from Dec. 2007 to Feb. 2008.

A Mixed Method to Evaluate Burden of Malaria Due to Flooding and Waterlogging in Mengcheng County, China: A Case Study

PubMed Central

Ding, Guoyong; Gao, Lu; Li, Xuewen; Zhou, Maigeng; Liu, Qiyong; Ren, Hongyan; Jiang, Baofa

2014-01-01

Background Malaria is a highly climate-sensitive vector-borne infectious disease that still represents a significant public health problem in Huaihe River Basin. However, little comprehensive information about the burden of malaria caused by flooding and waterlogging is available from this region. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of flooding and waterlogging on the burden of malaria in a county of Anhui Province, China. Methods A mixed method evaluation was conducted. A case-crossover study was firstly performed to evaluate the relationship between daily number of cases of malaria and flooding and waterlogging from May to October 2007 in Mengcheng County, China. Stratified Cox models were used to examine the lagged time and hazard ratios (HRs) of the risk of flooding and waterlogging on malaria. Years lived with disability (YLDs) of malaria attributable to flooding and waterlogging were then estimated based on the WHO framework of calculating potential impact fraction in the Global Burden of Disease study. Results A total of 3683 malaria were notified during the study period. The strongest effect was shown with a 25-day lag for flooding and a 7-day lag for waterlogging. Multivariable analysis showed that an increased risk of malaria was significantly associated with flooding alone [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR)  = 1.467, 95% CI = 1.257, 1.713], waterlogging alone (AHR = 1.879, 95% CI = 1.696, 2.121), and flooding and waterlogging together (AHR = 2.926, 95% CI = 2.576, 3.325). YLDs per 1000 of malaria attributable to flooding alone, waterlogging alone and flooding and waterlogging together were 0.009 per day, 0.019 per day and 0.022 per day, respectively. Conclusion Flooding and waterlogging can lead to higher burden of malaria in the study area. Public health action should be taken to avoid and control a potential risk of malaria epidemics after these two weather disasters. PMID:24830808

Organ-specific proteomics of soybean seedlings under flooding and drought stresses.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Khodadadi, Ehsaneh; Fakheri, Baratali; Komatsu, Setsuko

2017-06-06

Organ-specific analyses enrich the understanding of plant growth and development under abiotic stresses. To elucidate the cellular responses in soybean seedlings exposed to flooding and drought stresses, organ-specific analysis was performed using a gel-free/label-free proteomic technique. Physiological analysis indicated that enzyme activities of alcohol dehydrogenase and delta-1-pyrroline-5-carboxylate synthase were markedly increased in leaf and root of plants treated with 6days of flooding and drought stresses, respectively. Proteins related to photosynthesis, RNA, DNA, signaling, and the tricarboxylic acid cycle were predominately affected in leaf, hypocotyl, and root in response to flooding and drought. Notably, the tricarboxylic acid cycle was suppressed in leaf and root under both stresses. Moreover, 17 proteins, including beta-glucosidase 31 and beta-amylase 5, were identified in soybean seedlings under both stresses. The protein abundances of beta-glucosidase 31 and beta-amylase 5 were increased in leaf and root under both stresses. Additionally, the gene expression of beta-amylase 5 was upregulated in leaf exposed to the flooding and drought, and the expression level was highly correlated with the protein abundance. These results suggest that beta-amylase 5 may be involved in carbohydrate mobilization to provide energy to the leaf of soybean seedlings exposed to flooding and drought. This study examined the effects of flooding and drought on soybean seedlings in different organs using a gel-free/label-free proteomic approach. Physiological responses indicated that enzyme activities of alcohol dehydrogenase and delta-1-pyrroline-5-carboxylate synthase were increased in leaf and root of soybean seedlings exposed to flooding and drought for 6days. Functional analysis of acquired protein profiles exhibited that proteins related to photosynthesis, RNA, DNA, signaling, and the tricarboxylic acid cycle were predominated affected in leaf, hypocotyl, and root under both stresses. Moreover, the tricarboxylic acid cycle was suppressed in leaf and root of stressed soybean seedlings. Additionally, increased protein abundance of beta-amylase 5 was consistent with upregulated gene expression in the leaf under both stresses, suggesting that carbohydrate metabolism might be governed in response to flooding and drought of soybean seedlings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Computational hydraulics of a cascade of experimental-scale landside dam failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, N.; Guan, M.

2015-12-01

Abstract: Landslide dams typically comprise unconsolidated and poorly sorted material, and are vulnerable to rapid failure and breaching, particularly in mountainous areas during high intense rainfalls. A large flash flood with high-concentrated sediment can be formed in a short period, and the magnitude is likely to be amplified along the flow direction due to the inclusion of a large amount of sediment. This can result in significant and sudden flood risk downstream for human life and property. Numerous field evidence has indicated the various risks of landslide dam failures. In general, cascading landslide dams can be formed along the sloping channel due to the randomness and unpredictability of landslides, which complexes the hydraulics of landslide dam failures. The failure process of a single dam and subsequent floods has attracted attention in multidisciplinary studies. However, the dynamic failure process of cascading landslide dams has been poorly understood. From a viewpoint of simulation, this study evaluates the formation and development of rapid sediment-charged floods due to cascading failure of landslide dams through detailed hydro-morphodynamic modelling. The model used is based on shallow water theory and it has been successful in predicting the flow and morphological process during sudden dam-break, as well as full and partial dyke-breach. Various experimental-scale scenarios are modelled, including: (1) failure of a single full dam in a sloping channel, (2) failure of two dams in a sloping channel, (3) failure of multiple landslide dams (four) in a sloping channel. For each scenario, different failure modes (sudden/gradual) and bed boundary (fixed /mobile) are assumed and simulated. The study systematically explores the tempo-spatial evolution of landslide-induced floods (discharge, flow velocity, and flow concentration) and geomorphic properties along the sloping channel. The effects of in-channel erosion and flow-driven sediment from dams on the development of flood process are investigated. The results improve the understanding of the formation and development mechanism of flash floods due to cascading landslide dam failures. The findings are beneficial for downstream flood risk assessment and developing control strategies for landslide-induced floods.

Flood lavas on Earth, Io and Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keszthelyi, L.; Self, S.; Thordarson, T.

2006-01-01

Flood lavas are major geological features on all the major rocky planetary bodies. They provide important insight into the dynamics and chemistry of the interior of these bodies. On the Earth, they appear to be associated with major and mass extinction events. It is therefore not surprising that there has been significant research on flood lavas in recent years. Initial models suggested eruption durations of days and volumetric fluxes of order 107 m3 s-1 with flows moving as turbulent floods. However, our understanding of how lava flows can be emplaced under an insulating crust was revolutionized by the observations of actively inflating pahoehoe flows in Hawaii. These new ideas led to the hypothesis that flood lavas were emplaced over many years with eruption rates of the order of 104 m3 s-1. The field evidence indicates that flood lava flows in the Columbia River Basalts, Deccan Traps, Etendeka lavas, and the Kerguelen Plateau were emplaced as inflated pahoehoe sheet flows. This was reinforced by the observation of active lava flows of ??? 100 km length on Io being formed as tube-fed flow fed by moderate eruption rates (102-103 m3 s-1). More recently it has been found that some flood lavas are also emplaced in a more rapid manner. New high-resolution images from Mars revealed 'platy-ridged' flood lava flows, named after the large rafted plates and ridges formed by compression of the flow top. A search for appropriate terrestrial analogues found an excellent example in Iceland: the 1783-1784 Laki Flow Field. The brecciated Laki flow top consists of pieces of pahoehoe, not aa clinker, leading us to call this 'rubbly pahoehoe'. Similar flows have been found in the Columbia River Basalts and the Kerguelen Plateau. We hypothesize that these flows form with a thick, insulating, but mobile crust, which is disrupted when surges in the erupted flux are too large to maintain the normal pahoehoe mode of emplacement Flood lavas emplaced in this manner could have (intermittently) reached effusion rates of the order of 106 m3 s-1.

Characterisation of seasonal flood types according to timescales in mixed probability distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Svenja; Schumann, Andreas; Schulte, Markus

2016-08-01

When flood statistics are based on annual maximum series (AMS), the sample often contains flood peaks, which differ in their genesis. If the ratios among event types change over the range of observations, the extrapolation of a probability distribution function (pdf) can be dominated by a majority of events that belong to a certain flood type. If this type is not typical for extraordinarily large extremes, such an extrapolation of the pdf is misleading. To avoid this breach of the assumption of homogeneity, seasonal models were developed that differ between winter and summer floods. We show that a distinction between summer and winter floods is not always sufficient if seasonal series include events with different geneses. Here, we differentiate floods by their timescales into groups of long and short events. A statistical method for such a distinction of events is presented. To demonstrate their applicability, timescales for winter and summer floods in a German river basin were estimated. It is shown that summer floods can be separated into two main groups, but in our study region, the sample of winter floods consists of at least three different flood types. The pdfs of the two groups of summer floods are combined via a new mixing model. This model considers that information about parallel events that uses their maximum values only is incomplete because some of the realisations are overlaid. A statistical method resulting in an amendment of statistical parameters is proposed. The application in a German case study demonstrates the advantages of the new model, with specific emphasis on flood types.

Flood Hazard Mapping by Applying Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, K. Y.; Lee, J. Y.; Keum, H.; Kim, B. J.; Kim, T. H.

2017-12-01

There are lots of technical methods to integrate various factors for flood hazard mapping. The purpose of this study is to suggest the methodology of integrated flood hazard mapping using MCDM(Multi Criteria Decision Making). MCDM problems involve a set of alternatives that are evaluated on the basis of conflicting and incommensurate criteria. In this study, to apply MCDM to assessing flood risk, maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time are considered as criterion, and each applied elements are considered as alternatives. The scheme to find the efficient alternative closest to a ideal value is appropriate way to assess flood risk of a lot of element units(alternatives) based on various flood indices. Therefore, TOPSIS which is most commonly used MCDM scheme is adopted to create flood hazard map. The indices for flood hazard mapping(maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time) have uncertainty concerning simulation results due to various values according to flood scenario and topographical condition. These kind of ambiguity of indices can cause uncertainty of flood hazard map. To consider ambiguity and uncertainty of criterion, fuzzy logic is introduced which is able to handle ambiguous expression. In this paper, we made Flood Hazard Map according to levee breach overflow using the Fuzzy TOPSIS Technique. We confirmed the areas where the highest grade of hazard was recorded through the drawn-up integrated flood hazard map, and then produced flood hazard map can be compared them with those indicated in the existing flood risk maps. Also, we expect that if we can apply the flood hazard map methodology suggested in this paper even to manufacturing the current flood risk maps, we will be able to make a new flood hazard map to even consider the priorities for hazard areas, including more varied and important information than ever before. Keywords : Flood hazard map; levee break analysis; 2D analysis; MCDM; Fuzzy TOPSIS Acknowlegement This research was supported by a grant (17AWMP-B079625-04) from Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Development and application of an atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting model driven by TIGGE ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Hongjun; Zhao, Linna

2012-02-01

A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecasting model, driven by The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data, has been developed for flood forecasting over the Huaihe River. The incorporation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) information into flood forecasting systems may increase forecast lead time from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP model forecast from a single forecast center, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and leads to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble NWP systems through TIGGE offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Xinanjiang model used for hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling and the one-dimensional unsteady flow model applied to channel flood routing are coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office (UKMO), and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The developed ensemble flood forecasting model is applied to flood forecasting of the 2007 flood season as a test case. The test case is chosen over the upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station with flood diversion and retarding areas. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The Muskingum method is used for flood routing in the flood diversion area. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. The results demonstrate satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to a few days in advance, and show that TIGGE ensemble forecast data are a promising tool for forecasting of flood inundation, comparable with that driven by raingauge observations.

The Use of LIDAR and Volunteered Geographic Information to Map Flood Extents and Inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDougall, K.; Temple-Watts, P.

2012-07-01

Floods are one of the most destructive natural disasters that threaten communities and properties. In recent decades, flooding has claimed more lives, destroyed more houses and ruined more agricultural land than any other natural hazard. The accurate prediction of the areas of inundation from flooding is critical to saving lives and property, but relies heavily on accurate digital elevation and hydrologic models. The 2011 Brisbane floods provided a unique opportunity to capture high resolution digital aerial imagery as the floods neared their peak, allowing the capture of areas of inundation over the various city suburbs. This high quality imagery, together with accurate LiDAR data over the area and publically available volunteered geographic imagery through repositories such as Flickr, enabled the reconstruction of flood extents and the assessment of both area and depth of inundation for the assessment of damage. In this study, approximately 20 images of flood damaged properties were utilised to identify the peak of the flood. Accurate position and height values were determined through the use of RTK GPS and conventional survey methods. This information was then utilised in conjunction with river gauge information to generate a digital flood surface. The LiDAR generated DEM was then intersected with the flood surface to reconstruct the area of inundation. The model determined areas of inundation were then compared to the mapped flood extent from the high resolution digital imagery to assess the accuracy of the process. The paper concludes that accurate flood extent prediction or mapping is possible through this method, although its accuracy is dependent on the number and location of sampled points. The utilisation of LiDAR generated DEMs and DSMs can also provide an excellent mechanism to estimate depths of inundation and hence flood damage

Empirical relations between large wood transport and catchment characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steeb, Nicolas; Rickenmann, Dieter; Rickli, Christian; Badoux, Alexandre

2017-04-01

The transport of vast amounts of large wood (LW) in water courses can considerably aggravate hazardous situations during flood events, and often strongly affects resulting flood damage. Large wood recruitment and transport are controlled by various factors which are difficult to assess and the prediction of transported LW volumes is difficult. Such information are, however, important for engineers and river managers to adequately dimension retention structures or to identify critical stream cross-sections. In this context, empirical formulas have been developed to estimate the volume of transported LW during a flood event (Rickenmann, 1997; Steeb et al., 2017). The data base of existing empirical wood load equations is, however, limited. The objective of the present study is to test and refine existing empirical equations, and to derive new relationships to reveal trends in wood loading. Data have been collected for flood events with LW occurrence in Swiss catchments of various sizes. This extended data set allows us to derive statistically more significant results. LW volumes were found to be related to catchment and transport characteristics, such as catchment size, forested area, forested stream length, water discharge, sediment load, or Melton ratio. Both the potential wood load and the fraction that is effectively mobilized during a flood event (effective wood load) are estimated. The difference of potential and effective wood load allows us to derive typical reduction coefficients that can be used to refine spatially explicit GIS models for potential LW recruitment.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems for Remote Estimation of Flooded Areas Based on Complex Image Processing.

PubMed

Popescu, Dan; Ichim, Loretta; Stoican, Florin

2017-02-23

Floods are natural disasters which cause the most economic damage at the global level. Therefore, flood monitoring and damage estimation are very important for the population, authorities and insurance companies. The paper proposes an original solution, based on a hybrid network and complex image processing, to this problem. As first novelty, a multilevel system, with two components, terrestrial and aerial, was proposed and designed by the authors as support for image acquisition from a delimited region. The terrestrial component contains a Ground Control Station, as a coordinator at distance, which communicates via the internet with more Ground Data Terminals, as a fixed nodes network for data acquisition and communication. The aerial component contains mobile nodes-fixed wing type UAVs. In order to evaluate flood damage, two tasks must be accomplished by the network: area coverage and image processing. The second novelty of the paper consists of texture analysis in a deep neural network, taking into account new criteria for feature selection and patch classification. Color and spatial information extracted from chromatic co-occurrence matrix and mass fractal dimension were used as well. Finally, the experimental results in a real mission demonstrate the validity of the proposed methodologies and the performances of the algorithms.

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems for Remote Estimation of Flooded Areas Based on Complex Image Processing

PubMed Central

Popescu, Dan; Ichim, Loretta; Stoican, Florin

2017-01-01

Floods are natural disasters which cause the most economic damage at the global level. Therefore, flood monitoring and damage estimation are very important for the population, authorities and insurance companies. The paper proposes an original solution, based on a hybrid network and complex image processing, to this problem. As first novelty, a multilevel system, with two components, terrestrial and aerial, was proposed and designed by the authors as support for image acquisition from a delimited region. The terrestrial component contains a Ground Control Station, as a coordinator at distance, which communicates via the internet with more Ground Data Terminals, as a fixed nodes network for data acquisition and communication. The aerial component contains mobile nodes—fixed wing type UAVs. In order to evaluate flood damage, two tasks must be accomplished by the network: area coverage and image processing. The second novelty of the paper consists of texture analysis in a deep neural network, taking into account new criteria for feature selection and patch classification. Color and spatial information extracted from chromatic co-occurrence matrix and mass fractal dimension were used as well. Finally, the experimental results in a real mission demonstrate the validity of the proposed methodologies and the performances of the algorithms. PMID:28241479

Beaver assisted river valley formation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westbrook, Cherie J.; Cooper, D.J.; Baker, B.W.

2011-01-01

We examined how beaver dams affect key ecosystem processes, including pattern and process of sediment deposition, the composition and spatial pattern of vegetation, and nutrient loading and processing. We provide new evidence for the formation of heterogeneous beaver meadows on riverine system floodplains and terraces where dynamic flows are capable of breaching in-channel beaver dams. Our data show a 1.7-m high beaver dam triggered overbank flooding that drowned vegetation in areas deeply flooded, deposited nutrient-rich sediment in a spatially heterogeneous pattern on the floodplain and terrace, and scoured soils in other areas. The site quickly de-watered following the dam breach by high stream flows, protecting the deposited sediment from future re-mobilization by overbank floods. Bare sediment either exposed by scouring or deposited by the beaver flood was quickly colonized by a spatially heterogeneous plant community, forming a beaver meadow. Many willow and some aspen seedlings established in the more heavily disturbed areas, suggesting the site may succeed to a willow carr plant community suitable for future beaver re-occupation. We expand existing theory beyond the beaver pond to include terraces within valleys. This more fully explains how beavers can help drive the formation of alluvial valleys and their complex vegetation patterns as was first postulated by Ruedemann and Schoonmaker in 1938. ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Real-time flood forecasts & risk assessment using a possibility-theory based fuzzy neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, U. T.

2016-12-01

Globally floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters and improved flood forecasting methods are essential for better flood protection in urban areas. Given the availability of high resolution real-time datasets for flood variables (e.g. streamflow and precipitation) in many urban areas, data-driven models have been effectively used to predict peak flow rates in river; however, the selection of input parameters for these types of models is often subjective. Additionally, the inherit uncertainty associated with data models along with errors in extreme event observations means that uncertainty quantification is essential. Addressing these concerns will enable improved flood forecasting methods and provide more accurate flood risk assessments. In this research, a new type of data-driven model, a quasi-real-time updating fuzzy neural network is developed to predict peak flow rates in urban riverine watersheds. A possibility-to-probability transformation is first used to convert observed data into fuzzy numbers. A possibility theory based training regime is them used to construct the fuzzy parameters and the outputs. A new entropy-based optimisation criterion is used to train the network. Two existing methods to select the optimum input parameters are modified to account for fuzzy number inputs, and compared. These methods are: Entropy-Wavelet-based Artificial Neural Network (EWANN) and Combined Neural Pathway Strength Analysis (CNPSA). Finally, an automated algorithm design to select the optimum structure of the neural network is implemented. The overall impact of each component of training this network is to replace the traditional ad hoc network configuration methods, with one based on objective criteria. Ten years of data from the Bow River in Calgary, Canada (including two major floods in 2005 and 2013) are used to calibrate and test the network. The EWANN method selected lagged peak flow as a candidate input, whereas the CNPSA method selected lagged precipitation and lagged mean daily flow as candidate inputs. Model performance metric show that the CNPSA method had higher performance (with an efficiency of 0.76). Model output was used to assess the risk of extreme peak flows for a given day using an inverse possibility-to-probability transformation.

Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

2017-05-01

The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from Twitter messages that mention locations of flooding. A deterministic flood map created for the December 2015 flood in the city of York (UK) showed good performance (F(2) = 0.69; a statistic ranging from 0 to 1, with 1 expressing a perfect fit with validation data). The probabilistic flood maps we created showed that, in the York case study, the uncertainty in flood extent was mainly induced by errors in the precise locations of flood observations as derived from Twitter data. Errors in the terrain elevation data or in the parameters of the applied algorithm contributed less to flood extent uncertainty. Although these maps tended to overestimate the actual probability of flooding, they gave a reasonable representation of flood extent uncertainty in the area. This study illustrates that inherently uncertain data from social media can be used to derive information about flooding.

Designing a Software for Flood Risk Assessment Based on Multi Criteria Desicion Analysis and Information Diffusion Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musaoglu, N.; Saral, A.; Seker, D. Z.

2012-12-01

Flooding is one of the major natural disasters not only in Turkey but also in all over the world and it causes serious damage and harm. It is estimated that of the total economic loss caused by all kinds of disasters, 40% was due to floods. In July 1995, the Ayamama Creek in Istanbul was flooded, the insurance sector received around 1,200 claims notices during that period, insurance companies had to pay a total of $40 million for claims. In 2009, the same creek was flooded again and killed 31 people over two days and insurance firms paid for damages around cost €150 million for claims. To solve these kinds of problems modern tools such as GIS and Remote Sensing should be utilized. In this study, a software was designed for the flood risk analysis with Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Information Diffusion( InfoDif) methods.In the developed sofware, five evaluation criterias were taken into account, which were slope, aspect, elevation, geology and land use which were extracted from the satellite sensor data. The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the Ayamama River Basin was acquired from the SPOT 5 satellite image with 2.5 meter spatial resolution. Slope and aspect values of the study basin were extracted from this DEM. The land use of the Ayamama Creek was obtained by performing object-oriented nearest neighbor classification method by image segmentation on SPOT 5 image dated 2010. All produced data were used as an input for the part of Multi Criteria Desicion Analysis (MCDA) method of this software. Criterias and their each sub criteras were weighted and flood vulnerability was determined with MCDA-AHP. Also, daily flood data was collected from Florya Meteorological Station, between 1975 to 2009 years and the daily flood peak discharge was calculated with the method of Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) and were used as an input in the software for the part of InfoDif.Obtained results were verified using ground truth data and it has been clearly seen that the developed (TRA) software which uses two different methods for flood risk analysis, can be more effective for achieving different decision problems, from conventional techniques and produce more reliable results in a short time.; Study Area

Social vulnerability analysis of the event flood puddle (case study in Lamongan regency, East Java province)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soegiyanto; Rindawati

2018-01-01

This research was conducted in the flood plain Bonorowo in Lamongan East Java Province. The area was inundated almost every year, but people still survive and remain settled at the sites. This research is to identify and analyze the social vulnerability in the flood plains on the characteristics puddle Bonorowo This research method is the study of the characteristics and livelihood strategies of the communities living on marginal lands (floodplains Bonorowo) are regions prone to flooding / inundation. Based on the object of this study is a survey research method mix / mix method, which merge or combination of methods of quantitative and qualitative methods, so it will be obtained a description of a more comprehensive and holistic. The results obtained in this study are; Social vulnerability is not affected by the heightened puddles. Social capital is abundant making society safer and more comfortable to keep their activities and settle in the region

Study on reservoir time-varying design flood of inflow based on Poisson process with time-dependent parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiqing; Huang, Jing; Li, Jianchang

2018-06-01

The time-varying design flood can make full use of the measured data, which can provide the reservoir with the basis of both flood control and operation scheduling. This paper adopts peak over threshold method for flood sampling in unit periods and Poisson process with time-dependent parameters model for simulation of reservoirs time-varying design flood. Considering the relationship between the model parameters and hypothesis, this paper presents the over-threshold intensity, the fitting degree of Poisson distribution and the design flood parameters are the time-varying design flood unit period and threshold discriminant basis, deduced Longyangxia reservoir time-varying design flood process at 9 kinds of design frequencies. The time-varying design flood of inflow is closer to the reservoir actual inflow conditions, which can be used to adjust the operating water level in flood season and make plans for resource utilization of flood in the basin.

Flooding and mental health: a systematic mapping review.

PubMed

Fernandez, Ana; Black, John; Jones, Mairwen; Wilson, Leigh; Salvador-Carulla, Luis; Astell-Burt, Thomas; Black, Deborah

2015-01-01

Floods are the most common type of global natural disaster. Floods have a negative impact on mental health. Comprehensive evaluation and review of the literature are lacking. To systematically map and review available scientific evidence on mental health impacts of floods caused by extended periods of heavy rain in river catchments. We performed a systematic mapping review of published scientific literature in five languages for mixed studies on floods and mental health. PUBMED and Web of Science were searched to identify all relevant articles from 1994 to May 2014 (no restrictions). The electronic search strategy identified 1331 potentially relevant papers. Finally, 83 papers met the inclusion criteria. Four broad areas are identified: i) the main mental health disorders-post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety; ii] the factors associated with mental health among those affected by floods; iii) the narratives associated with flooding, which focuses on the long-term impacts of flooding on mental health as a consequence of the secondary stressors; and iv) the management actions identified. The quantitative and qualitative studies have consistent findings. However, very few studies have used mixed methods to quantify the size of the mental health burden as well as exploration of in-depth narratives. Methodological limitations include control of potential confounders and short-term follow up. Floods following extreme events were excluded from our review. Although the level of exposure to floods has been systematically associated with mental health problems, the paucity of longitudinal studies and lack of confounding controls precludes strong conclusions. We recommend that future research in this area include mixed-method studies that are purposefully designed, using more rigorous methods. Studies should also focus on vulnerable groups and include analyses of policy and practical responses.

Participatory approaches to understanding practices of flood management across borders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bracken, L. J.; Forrester, J.; Oughton, E. A.; Cinderby, S.; Donaldson, A.; Anness, L.; Passmore, D.

2012-04-01

The aim of this paper is to outline and present initial results from a study designed to identify principles of and practices for adaptive co-management strategies for resilience to flooding in borderlands using participatory methods. Borderlands are the complex and sometimes undefined spaces existing at the interface of different territories and draws attention towards messy connections and disconnections (Strathern 2004; Sassen 2006). For this project the borderlands concerned are those between professional and lay knowledge, between responsible agencies, and between one nation and another. Research was focused on the River Tweed catchment, located on the Scottish-English border. This catchment is subject to complex environmental designations and rural development regimes that make integrated management of the whole catchment difficult. A multi-method approach was developed using semi-structured interviews, Q methodology and participatory GIS in order to capture wide ranging practices for managing flooding, the judgements behind these practices and to 'scale up' participation in the study. Professionals and local experts were involved in the research. The methodology generated a useful set of options for flood management, with research outputs easily understood by key management organisations and the wider public alike. There was a wide endorsement of alternative flood management solutions from both managers and local experts. The role of location was particularly important for ensuring communication and data sharing between flood managers from different organisations and more wide ranging stakeholders. There were complex issues around scale; both the mismatch between communities and evidence of flooding and the mismatch between governance and scale of intervention for natural flood management. The multi-method approach was essential in capturing practice and the complexities around governance of flooding. The involvement of key flood management organisations was integral to making the research of relevance to professionals.

Methods of Knowledge Exchange and Learning Focused on Local Authorities' Experiences of Flood Science Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stokes, Alison; Roberts, Carolyn; Crowley, Kate; McEwen, Lindsey

2015-01-01

Devastating floods in 2007 across western England resulted in legislative changes which have placed increased responsibility on local government for managing and mitigating local flood risk. For these changes to be effective, professional stakeholders need to understand fundamental concepts in flood science of which they may have no prior…

Generation of synthetic flood hydrographs by hydrological donors (SHYDONHY method)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paquet, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

For the design of hydraulic infrastructures like dams, a design hydrograph is required in most of the cases. Some of its features (e.g. peak value, duration, volume) corresponding to a given return period are computed thanks to a wide range of methods: historical records, mono or multivariate statistical analysis, stochastic simulation, etc. Then various methods have been proposed to construct design hydrographs having such characteristics, ranging from traditional unit-hydrograph to statistical methods (Yue et al., 2002). A new method to build design hydrographs (or more generally synthetic hydrographs) is introduced here, named SHYDONHY, French acronym for "Synthèse d'HYdrogrammes par DONneurs HYdrologiques". It is based on an extensive database of 100 000 flood hydrographs recorded at hourly time-step on 1300 gauging stations in France and Switzerland, covering a wide range of catchment size and climatology. For each station, an average of two hydrographs per year of record has been selected by a peak-over-threshold (POT) method with independence criteria (Lang et al., 1999). This sampling ensures that only hydrographs of intense floods are gathered in the dataset. For a given catchment, where few or no hydrograph is available at the outlet, a sub-set of 10 "donor stations" is selected within the complete dataset, considering several criteria: proximity, size, mean annual values and regimes for both total runoff and POT-selected floods. This sub-set of stations (and their corresponding flood hydrographs) will allow to: • Estimate a characteristic duration of flood hydrographs (e.g. duration for which the discharge is above 50% of the peak value). • For a given duration (e.g. one day), estimate the average peak-to- volume ratio of floods. • For a given duration and peak-to-volume ratio, generation of a synthetic reference hydrograph by combining appropriate hydrographs of the sub-set. • For a given daily discharge sequence, being observed or generated for extreme flood estimation, generate a suitable synthetic hydrograph, also by combining selected hydrographs of the sub-set. The reliability of the method is assessed by performing a jackknife validation on the whole dataset of stations, in particular by reconstructing the hydrograph of the biggest flood of each station and comparing it to the actual one. Some applications are presented, e.g. the coupling of SHYDONHY with the SCHADEX method (Paquet et al., 2003) for the stochastic simulation of extreme reservoir level in dams. References: Lang, M., Ouarda, T. B. M. J., & Bobée, B. (1999). Towards operational guidelines for over-threshold modeling. Journal of hydrology, 225(3), 103-117. Paquet, E., Garavaglia, F., Garçon, R., & Gailhard, J. (2013). The SCHADEX method: A semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation. Journal of Hydrology, 495, 23-37. Yue, S., Ouarda, T. B., Bobée, B., Legendre, P., & Bruneau, P. (2002). Approach for describing statistical properties of flood hydrograph. Journal of hydrologic engineering, 7(2), 147-153.

A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, R. A.

2017-12-01

The two standard methods for flood estimation in ungauged basins, regression-based statistical models and rainfall-runoff models using a design rainfall event, have survived relatively unchanged as the methods of choice for more than 40 years. Their technical implementation has developed greatly, but the models' representation of hydrological processes has not, despite a large volume of hydrological research. I suggest it is time to introduce more hydrology into flood estimation. The reliability of the current methods can be unsatisfactory. For example, despite the UK's relatively straightforward hydrology, regression estimates of the index flood are uncertain by +/- a factor of two (for a 95% confidence interval), an impractically large uncertainty for design. The standard error of rainfall-runoff model estimates is not usually known, but available assessments indicate poorer reliability than statistical methods. There is a practical need for improved reliability in flood estimation. Two promising candidates to supersede the existing methods are (i) continuous simulation by rainfall-runoff modelling and (ii) event-based derived distribution methods. The main challenge with continuous simulation methods in ungauged basins is to specify the model structure and parameter values, when calibration data are not available. This has been an active area of research for more than a decade, and this activity is likely to continue. The major challenges for the derived distribution method in ungauged catchments include not only the correct specification of model structure and parameter values, but also antecedent conditions (e.g. seasonal soil water balance). However, a much smaller community of researchers are active in developing or applying the derived distribution approach, and as a result slower progress is being made. A change in needed: surely we have learned enough about hydrology in the last 40 years that we can make a practical hydrological advance on our methods for flood estimation! A shift to new methods for flood estimation will not be taken lightly by practitioners. However, the standard for change is clear - can we develop new methods which give significant improvements in reliability over those existing methods which are demonstrably unsatisfactory?

Role of large wood (LW) in rivers affected by the 2008 Chaitén volcano explosive eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iroume, A.; Andreoli, A.; Ulloa, H.; Merino, A.; da Canal, M.; Iroume, A., Jr.

2010-12-01

In January 2010 we begun a research to study LW quantity, spatial distribution and transport rate, sediment and discharge quantification and channel morphology in different rivers affected by 2008 Chaitén volcano eruption. This document presents some insights from a first survey on LW characterization and its effect on river channel morphology. We monitored the following streams in the Chaiten area: Rio Chaitén (Rio Blanco) heavily impacted by pyroclastic flow, lahars flow and seasonal floods, the Rio Negro affected by ash deposits and seasonal flows and the Rio Rayas impacted by lahars flow and glacial melting. In this document we concentrated on Rio Chaitén. We are characterizing longitudinal distribution, volume and structures of LW (wood elements of more than 10 cm of diameter and 1 m of longitude) through field sampling and photogrammetric interpretation and studying LW mobilization using active (RFID) and passive tags. We select representative cross-sections for repeated measurements. Future surveys will include seasonal suspended and bedload sampling, LW spatial distribution and influence on channel morphology and bank erosion and LW mobilization linked with floods and channel geometry changes. During the first field survey we found huge LW input rate due to eruption influence (killed trees and pyroclastic flows and floods), erosion of different terraces generated from intense debris-flow sedimentations caused by Chaitén Volcano explosion, typical on stream LW structures (log-steps, jams) contributing to streambed stability and channel avulsion caused by log-dams. Also, LW deposited parallel to stream indicates high mobilization and LW deposited on external curve contribute to bank stabilization. We measured high sediment transport rate also in low-flow conditions due to huge availability of fine volcanic sediments. Associated risks to LW are: dam break processes, more channel avulsion caused by log accumulations, flow resistance increase favoring channel divagation (especially important for town segment) and logs floating downstream can obstruct/damage bridges and culverts. Funding for this research has been provided by Chile's National Research Foundation through FONDECYT Projects N 1080249 and 1090774. The authors thank USGS and SERNAGEOMIN for their cooperation.

Construction of digital core by adaptive porosity method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Huifen; Liu, Ting; Zhao, Ling; Sun, Yanyu; Pan, Junliang

2017-05-01

The construction of digital core has its unique advantages in the study of water flooding or polymer flooding oil displacement efficiency. The frequency distribution of pore size is measured by mercury injection experiment, the coordination number by CT scanning method, and the wettability data by imbibition displacement was measured, on the basis of considering the ratio of pore throat ratio and wettability, the principle of adaptive porosity is used to construct the digital core. The results show that the water flooding recovery, the degree of polymer flooding and the results of the Physical simulation experiment are in good agreement.

Quality assurance flood source and method of making

DOEpatents

Fisher, Darrell R [Richland, WA; Alexander, David L [West Richland, WA; Satz, Stanley [Surfside, FL

2002-12-03

Disclosed is a is an improved flood source, and method of making the same, which emits an evenly distributed flow of energy from a gamma emitting radionuclide dispersed throughout the volume of the flood source. The flood source is formed by filling a bottom pan with a mix of epoxy resin with cobalt-57, preferably at 10 to 20 millicuries and then adding a hardener. The pan is secured to a flat, level surface to prevent the pan from warping and to act as a heat sink for removal of heat from the pan during the curing of the resin-hardener mixture.

Integration of social vulnerability into emergency management plans: designing of evacuation routes against flood disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aroca-Jimenez, Estefanía; Bodoque, Jose Maria; Garcia, Juan Antonio; Diez-Herrero, Andres

2017-04-01

Flash floods are highly spatio-temporal localized flood events characterized by reaching a high peak flow in a very short period of time, i.e., generally with times of concentration lower than six hours. Its short duration, which limits or even voids any warning time, means that flash floods are considered to be one of the most destructive natural hazards with the greatest capacity to generate risk, either in terms of the number of people affected globally or the proportion of individual fatalities. The above highlights the importance of a realistic and appropriate design of evacuation strategies in order to reduce flood-related losses, being evacuation planning considered of critical importance for disaster management. Traditionally, evacuation maps have been based on flood-prone areas, shelters or emergency residences location and evacuation routes information. However, evacuation plans rarely consider the spatial distribution of vulnerable population (i.e., people with special needs, mobility constraints or economic difficulties), which usually require assistance from emergency responders. The goal of this research is to elaborate an evacuation map against the occurrence of flash floods by combining geographic information (e.g. roads, health facilities location, sanitary helicopters) and social vulnerability patterns, which are previously obtained from socioeconomic variables (e.g. population, unemployment, dwelling characteristics). To do this, ArcGis Network Analyst tool is used, which allows to calculate the optimal evacuation routes. The methodology proposed here is implemented in the region of Castilla y León (94,230 km2). Urban areas prone to flash flooding are identified taking into account the following requirements: i) city centers are crossed by rivers or streams with a longitudinal slope higher than 0.01 m m-1; ii) city centers are potentially affected by flash floods; and iii) city centers are affected by an area with low or exceptional probability of flooding (i.e., 500-year flood). A total of 3 evacuation routes were designed and automatically traced for each of the 39 urban areas identified as interest, considering the nearest: i) health facility, ii) hospital; and iii) evacuation area (i.e. sports halls or any other). The suitable elaboration of evacuation plans is really important in small mountainous areas prone to flash flooding as they are managed by local organisms where available economic resources are often limited. Furthermore, the short response time obliges emergency responders to act efficiently, which requires the design of evacuation plans taking into account certain social characteristics for evacuation routes designing.

Geohazard assessment through the analysis of historical alluvial events in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo

2015-04-01

The risk associated with extreme water events such as flash floods, results from a combination of overflows and landslides hazards. A multi-hazard approach have been utilized to analyze the 1773 flood that occurred in conjunction with heavy rainfall, causing major damage in terms of lost lives and economic cost over an area of 200 km2, including both the coastal strip between Salerno and Maiori and the Apennine hinterland, Campania region - Southern Italy. This area has been affected by a total of 40 flood events over the last five centuries, 26 of them occurred between 1900 and 2000. Streamflow events have produced severe impacts on Cava de' Tirreni (SA) and its territory and in particular four catastrophic floods in 1581, 1773, 1899 and 1954, caused a pervasive pattern of destruction. In the study area, rainstorm events typically occur in small and medium-sized fluvial system, characterized by small catchment areas and high-elevation drainage basins, causing the detachment of large amount of volcaniclastic and siliciclastic covers from the carbonate bedrock. The mobilization of these deposits (slope debris) mixed with rising floodwaters along the water paths can produce fast-moving streamflows of large proportion with significant hazardous implications (Violante et al., 2009). In this context the study of 1773 historical flood allows the detection and the definition of those areas where catastrophic events repeatedly took place over the time. Moreover, it improves the understanding of the phenomena themselves, including some key elements in the management of risk mitigation, such as the restoration of the damage suffered by the buildings and/or the environmental effects caused by the floods.

Adaptive finite volume methods with well-balanced Riemann solvers for modeling floods in rugged terrain: Application to the Malpasset dam-break flood (France, 1959)

USGS Publications Warehouse

George, D.L.

2011-01-01

The simulation of advancing flood waves over rugged topography, by solving the shallow-water equations with well-balanced high-resolution finite volume methods and block-structured dynamic adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), is described and validated in this paper. The efficiency of block-structured AMR makes large-scale problems tractable, and allows the use of accurate and stable methods developed for solving general hyperbolic problems on quadrilateral grids. Features indicative of flooding in rugged terrain, such as advancing wet-dry fronts and non-stationary steady states due to balanced source terms from variable topography, present unique challenges and require modifications such as special Riemann solvers. A well-balanced Riemann solver for inundation and general (non-stationary) flow over topography is tested in this context. The difficulties of modeling floods in rugged terrain, and the rationale for and efficacy of using AMR and well-balanced methods, are presented. The algorithms are validated by simulating the Malpasset dam-break flood (France, 1959), which has served as a benchmark problem previously. Historical field data, laboratory model data and other numerical simulation results (computed on static fitted meshes) are shown for comparison. The methods are implemented in GEOCLAW, a subset of the open-source CLAWPACK software. All the software is freely available at. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Soil Moisture Estimation Across Scales with Mobile Sensors for Cosmic-Ray Neutrons from the Ground and Air

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrön, Martin; Köhler, Mandy; Bannehr, Lutz; Köhli, Markus; Fersch, Benjamin; Rebmann, Corinna; Mai, Juliane; Cuntz, Matthias; Kögler, Simon; Schröter, Ingmar; Wollschläger, Ute; Oswald, Sascha; Dietrich, Peter; Zacharias, Steffen

2016-04-01

Soil moisture is a key variable for environmental sciences, but its determination at various scales and depths is still an open challenge. Cosmic-ray neutron sensing has become a well accepted and unique method to monitor an effective soil water content, covering tens of hectares in area and tens of centimeters in depth. The technology is famous for its low maintanance, non-invasiveness, continous measurement, and most importantly its large footprint and penetration depth. Beeing more representative than point data, and finer resolved plus deeper penetrating than remote-sensing products, cosmic-ray neutron derived soil moisture products provide unrivaled advantage for agriculture, regional hydrologic and land surface models. The method takes advantage of omnipresent neutrons which are extraordinarily sensitive to hydrogen in soil, plants, snow and air. Unwanted hydrogen sources in the footprint can be excluded by local calibration to extract the pure soil water information. However, this procedure is not feasible for mobile measurements, where neutron detectors are mounted on a car to do catchment-scale surveys. As a solution to that problem, we suggest strategies to correct spatial neutron data with the help of available spatial data of soil type, landuse and vegetation. We further present results of mobile rover campaigns at various scales and conditions, covering small sites from 0.2 km2 to catchments of 100 km2 area, and complex terrain from agricultural fields, urban areas, forests, to snowy alpine sites. As the rover is limited to accessible roads, we further investigated the applicability of airborne measurements. First tests with a gyrocopter at 150 to 200m heights proofed the concept of airborne neutron detection for environmental sciences. Moreover, neutron transport simulations confirm an improved areal coverage during these campaigns. Mobile neutron measurements at the ground or air are a promising tool for the detection of water sources across many scales. The method has a great potential to improve spatial performance of hydrological models, and help to assess regional soil moisture states for agriculture and flood risk management.

Spillway sizing of large dams in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reszler, Ch.; Gutknecht, D.; Blöschl, G.

2003-04-01

This paper discusses the basic philosophy of defining and calculating design floods for large dams in Austria, both for the construction of new dams and for a re-assessment of the safety of existing dams. Currently the consensus is to choose flood peak values corresponding to a probability of exceedance of 2*10-4 for a given year. A two step procedure is proposed to estimate the design flood discharges - a rapid assessment and a detailed assessment. In the rapid assessment the design discharge is chosen as a constant multiple of flood values read from a map of regionalised floods. The safety factor or multiplier takes care of the uncertainties of the local estimation and the regionalisation procedure. If the current design level of a spillway exceeds the value so estimated, no further calculations are needed. Otherwise (and for new dams) a detailed assessment is required. The idea of the detailed assessment is to draw upon all existing sources of information to constrain the uncertainties. The three main sources are local flood frequency analysis, where flood data are available; regional flood estimation from hydrologically similar catchments; and rainfall-runoff modelling using design storms as inputs. The three values obtained by these methods are then assessed and weighted in terms of their reliability to facilitate selection of the design flood. The uncertainty assessment of the various methods is based on confidence intervals, estimates of regional heterogeneity, data availability and sensitivity analyses of the rainfall-runoff model. As the definition of the design floods discussed above is based on probability concepts it is also important to examine the excess risk, i.e. the possibility of the occurrence of a flood exceeding the design levels. The excess risk is evaluated based on a so called Safety Check Flood (SCF), similar to the existing practice in other countries in Europe. The SCF is a vehicle to analyse the damage potential of an event of this magnitude. This is to provide guidance for protective measures to dealing with very extreme floods. The SCF is used to check the vulnerability of the system with regard to structural stability, morphological effects, etc., and to develop alarm plans and disaster mitigation procedures. The basis for estimating the SCF are the uncertainty assessments of the design flood values estimated by the three methods including unlikely combinations of the controlling factors and attending uncertainties. Finally we discuss the impact on the downstream valley of floods exceeding the design values and of smaller floods and illustrate the basic concepts by examples from the recent flood in August 2002.

Assessing public flood risk perception for understanding the level of risk preparedness - Evidence from a community-based survey (the Bend Subcarpathians, Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balteanu, Dan; Micu, Dana; Dumitrascu, Monica; Chendes, Viorel; Dragota, Carmen; Kucsicsa, Gheorghita; Grigorescu, Ines; Persu, Mihaela; Costache, Andra

2016-04-01

Floods (slow-onset and rapid) are among the costliest hydro-meteorological hazards in Romania, with strong societal and economic impacts, especially in small rural settlements, with a limited adaptive capacity to their adverse effects induced by the regional socio-economic context (e.g. aging population, low economic power). The study-area is located in the Bend Subcarpathians (Romania), a region with high tectonic mobility (the Seismic Vrancea Region), active slope processes (e.g. shallow and deep-seated landslides, mud flow, gully erosion) and increasing frequency of flash floods associated to heavy rainfalls. The study was conducted in the framework of the project "Vulnerability of the environment and human settlements to floods in the context of Global Environmental Change - VULMIN" (PN-II-PT-PCCA-2011-3.1-1587), funded by the Ministry of National Education over the 2012-2016 period (http://www.igar-vulmin.ro). Prior research derived valuable insights into the local population vulnerability to extreme hydro-meteorological events, revealing an increased individual experience to past hydrological events, a high level of worry associated to flood recurrence, a low rate of the perceived trustworthiness in national institutions and authorities, as well as evident differences between the perception of community members and local authorities in terms of risk preparedness. In the present study, an attempt has been made for developing an advanced understanding of the current level of flood risk preparedness within some communities strongly affected by the floods of 1970-1975, 2005 and 2010. The recent events had a significant impact on local communities and infrastructure in terms of the financial losses, causing a visible stress and even psychological trauma on some residents of the most affected households. The selected communities are located in areas affected by recurrent hydro-meteorological hazards (floods and flash floods), with return periods below 10 years. A flash flood susceptibility index developed within the project was also used to identify the rural communities located in areas with high susceptibility to flash floods with return periods of 50 and 100 years. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted in 12 rural settlements located in the Teleajen-Buzau hydrographic area (Buzǎu and Prahova counties), in 2014 and 2015, totally addressed to nearly 100 residents who experienced or witnessed past flood events in their current living area. The findings reflect a generally good level of awareness of flood exposure of the living areas among the community members, which is closely connected to the high worry level and large damages associated to past floods events. The results showed that the increased level of awareness and worry is not resulting in an increased level of preparedness at the level of affected communities. Several important gaps have been identified in terms of existing capacity for prevention and reduction of adverse effects of floods within the flood prone and already flood affected areas that explain the decreased resilience of all selected rural communities: e.g. a low efficiency of the early flood warning process; a limited effectiveness of the implemented structural measures aimed to improve the community resilience, to respond and cope with floods; the lack of training activities and exercises on flood prevention, protection and mitigation for the exposed population. These gaps are related to the limited financial support of the authorities to implement long-term measures for human safety, as well as for the protection of goods and property in the flood prone areas.

Spatial Information in Support of 3D Flood Damage Assessment of Buildings at Micro Level: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amirebrahimi, S.; Rajabifard, A.; Sabri, S.; Mendis, P.

2016-10-01

Floods, as the most common and costliest natural disaster around the globe, have adverse impacts on buildings which are considered as major contributors to the overall economic damage. With emphasis on risk management methods for reducing the risks to structures and people, estimating damage from potential flood events becomes an important task for identifying and implementing the optimal flood risk-reduction solutions. While traditional Flood Damage Assessment (FDA) methods focus on simple representation of buildings for large-scale damage assessment purposes, recent emphasis on buildings' flood resilience resulted in development of a sophisticated method that allows for a detailed and effective damage evaluation at the scale of building and its components. In pursuit of finding the suitable spatial information model to satisfy the needs of implementing such frameworks, this article explores the technical developments for an effective representation of buildings, floods and other required information within the built environment. The search begins with the Geospatial domain and investigates the state-of-the-art and relevant developments from data point of view in this area. It is further extended to other relevant disciplines in the Architecture, Engineering and Construction domain (AEC/FM) and finally, even some overlapping areas between these domains are considered and explored.

Flood analysis in mixed-urban areas reflecting interactions with the complete water cycle through coupled hydrologic-hydraulic modelling.

PubMed

Sto Domingo, N D; Refsgaard, A; Mark, O; Paludan, B

2010-01-01

The potential devastating effects of urban flooding have given high importance to thorough understanding and management of water movement within catchments, and computer modelling tools have found widespread use for this purpose. The state-of-the-art in urban flood modelling is the use of a coupled 1D pipe and 2D overland flow model to simultaneously represent pipe and surface flows. This method has been found to be accurate for highly paved areas, but inappropriate when land hydrology is important. The objectives of this study are to introduce a new urban flood modelling procedure that is able to reflect system interactions with hydrology, verify that the new procedure operates well, and underline the importance of considering the complete water cycle in urban flood analysis. A physically-based and distributed hydrological model was linked to a drainage network model for urban flood analysis, and the essential components and concepts used were described in this study. The procedure was then applied to a catchment previously modelled with the traditional 1D-2D procedure to determine if the new method performs similarly well. Then, results from applying the new method in a mixed-urban area were analyzed to determine how important hydrologic contributions are to flooding in the area.

Projections of Flood Risk using Credible Climate Signals in the Ohio River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlef, K.; Robertson, A. W.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

Estimating future hydrologic flood risk under non-stationary climate is a key challenge to the design of long-term water resources infrastructure and flood management strategies. In this work, we demonstrate how projections of large-scale climate patterns can be credibly used to create projections of long-term flood risk. Our study area is the northwest region of the Ohio River Basin in the United States Midwest. In the region, three major teleconnections have been previously demonstrated to affect synoptic patterns that influence extreme precipitation and streamflow: the El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American pattern, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These teleconnections are strongest during the winter season (January-March), which also experiences the greatest number of peak flow events. For this reason, flood events are defined as the maximum daily streamflow to occur in the winter season. For each gage in the region, the location parameter of a log Pearson type 3 distribution is conditioned on the first principal component of the three teleconnections to create a statistical model of flood events. Future projections of flood risk are created by forcing the statistical model with projections of the teleconnections from general circulation models selected for skill. We compare the results of our method to the results of two other methods: the traditional model chain (i.e., general circulation model projections to downscaling method to hydrologic model to flood frequency analysis) and that of using the historic trend. We also discuss the potential for developing credible projections of flood events for the continental United States.

Can we (actually) assess global risk?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2013-04-01

The evaluation of the dynamic interactions of the different components of global risk (e.g. hazard, exposure, vulnerability or resilience) is one of the main challenges in risk assessment and management. In state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of risk, natural and socio-economic systems are typically treated separately by using different methods. In flood risk studies, for instance, physical scientists typically focus on the study of the probability of flooding (i.e. hazard), while social scientists mainly examine the exposure, vulnerability or resilience to flooding. However, these different components are deeply interconnected. Changes in flood hazard might trigger changes in vulnerability, and vice versa. A typical example of these interactions is the so-called "levee effect", whereby heightening levees to reduce the probability of flooding often leads to increase the potential adverse consequences of flooding as people often perceive that flood risk was completely eliminated once the levee was raised. These interconnections between the different components of risk remain largely unexplored and poorly understood. This lack of knowledge is of serious concern as it limits our ability to plan appropriate risk prevention measures. To design flood control structures, for example, state-of-the-art models can indeed provide quantitative assessments of the corresponding risk reduction associated to the lower probability of flooding. Nevertheless, current methods cannot estimate how, and to what extent, such a reduction might trigger a future increase of the potential adverse consequences of flooding (the aforementioned "levee effect"). Neither can they evaluate how the latter might (in turn) lead to the requirement of additional flood control structures. Thus, while many progresses have been made in the static assessment of flood risk, more inter-disciplinary research is required for the development of methods for dynamic risk assessment, which is very much needed in a rapidly changing world. This presentation will discuss these challenges and describe a few initial attempts aiming to better understand the interactions between the different components of flood risk with reference to diverse case studies in Europe, Central America, and Africa.

Copula-based assessment of the relationship between food peaks and flood volumes using information on historical floods by Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaál, Ladislav; Szolgay, Ján.; Bacigál, Tomáå.¡; Kohnová, Silvia

2010-05-01

Copula-based estimation methods of hydro-climatological extremes have increasingly been gaining attention of researchers and practitioners in the last couple of years. Unlike the traditional estimation methods which are based on bivariate cumulative distribution functions (CDFs), copulas are a relatively flexible tool of statistics that allow for modelling dependencies between two or more variables such as flood peaks and flood volumes without making strict assumptions on the marginal distributions. The dependence structure and the reliability of the joint estimates of hydro-climatological extremes, mainly in the right tail of the joint CDF not only depends on the particular copula adopted but also on the data available for the estimation of the marginal distributions of the individual variables. Generally, data samples for frequency modelling have limited temporal extent, which is a considerable drawback of frequency analyses in practice. Therefore, it is advised to deal with statistical methods that improve any part of the process of copula construction and result in more reliable design values of hydrological variables. The scarcity of the data sample mostly in the extreme tail of the joint CDF can be bypassed, e.g., by using a considerably larger amount of simulated data by rainfall-runoff analysis or by including historical information on the variables under study. The latter approach of data extension is used here to make the quantile estimates of the individual marginals of the copula more reliable. In the presented paper it is proposed to use historical information in the frequency analysis of the marginal distributions in the framework of Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) simulations. Generally, a Bayesian approach allows for a straightforward combination of different sources of information on floods (e.g. flood data from systematic measurements and historical flood records, respectively) in terms of a product of the corresponding likelihood functions. On the other hand, the MCMC algorithm is a numerical approach for sampling from the likelihood distributions. The Bayesian MCMC methods therefore provide an attractive way to estimate the uncertainty in parameters and quantile metrics of frequency distributions. The applicability of the method is demonstrated in a case study of the hydroelectric power station Orlík on the Vltava River. This site has a key role in the flood prevention of Prague, the capital city of the Czech Republic. The record length of the available flood data is 126 years from the period 1877-2002, while the flood event observed in 2002 that caused extensive damages and numerous casualties is treated as a historic one. To estimate the joint probabilities of flood peaks and volumes, different copulas are fitted and their goodness-of-fit are evaluated by bootstrap simulations. Finally, selected quantiles of flood volumes conditioned on given flood peaks are derived and compared with those obtained by the traditional method used in the practice of water management specialists of the Vltava River.

Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Feilin; Zhong, Ping-An; Sun, Yimeng; Yeh, William W.-G.

2017-12-01

Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability.

Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

PubMed

Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

2018-05-01

Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing various approaches for flash flood forecasting in the Yzeron periurban catchment (150 km2) south-east Lyon, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braud, Isabelle; Breil, Pascal; Javelle, Pierre; Pejakovic, Nikola; Guérin, Stéphane

2017-04-01

The Yzeron periurban catchment (150 km2) is prone to flash floods leading to overflow in the downstream part of the catchment. A prevention and management plan has been approved and the set-up of a flood forecasting system is planned. The present study presents a comparison of several solutions for flood forecasting in the catchment. It is based on an extensive data collection (rain gauges, radar/rain gauge reanalyses, discharge and water level data) from this experimental catchment. A set of rainfall-runoff events leading to floods (problematic and non-problematic floods) was extracted and formed the basis for the definition of a first forecasting method. It is based on data analysis and the identification of explaining factors amongst the following: rainfall amount, intensity, antecedent rainfall, initial discharge. Several statistical methods including Factorial Analysis of Mixed Data and Classification and Regression Tree were used for this purpose. They showed that several classes of problematic floods can be identified. The first one is related to wet conditions characterized with high initial discharge and antecedent rainfall. The second class is driven by rainfall amount, initial discharge and rainfall intensity. Thresholds of these variables can be identified to provide a first warning. The second forecasting method assessed in the study is the system that will be operational in France in 2017, based on the AIGA method (Javelle et al., 2016). For this purpose, 18-year discharge simulation using the hydrological model of the AIGA method, forced using radar/rain gauges reanalysis were available at 44 locations within the catchment. The dates for which quantiles of a given return period were overtopped were identified and compared with the list of problematic events. The AIGA method was found relevant in identifying the most problematic events, but the lead time needs further investigation in order to assess the usefulness for population warning. References: Pierre Javelle, Didier Organde, Julie Demargne, Clotilde Saint-Martin, Céline de Saint-Aubin, Léa Garandeau and Bruno Janet (2016). Setting up a French national flash flood warning system for ungauged catchments based on the AIGA method. E3S Web of Conferences 7, 18010 (2016), 3rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management (FLOODrisk 2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160718010

A simple statistical method for analyzing flood susceptibility with incorporating rainfall and impervious surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Shou-Hao; Chen, Chi-Farn

2016-04-01

Flood, as known as the most frequent natural hazard in Taiwan, has induced severe damages of residents and properties in urban areas. The flood risk is even more severe in Tainan since 1990s, with the significant urban development over recent decades. Previous studies have indicated that the characteristics and the vulnerability of flood are affected by the increase of impervious surface area (ISA) and the changing climate condition. Tainan City, in southern Taiwan is selected as the study area. This study uses logistic regression to functionalize the relationship between rainfall variables, ISA and historical flood events. Specifically, rainfall records from 2001 to 2014 were collected and mapped, and Landsat images of year 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2014 were used to generate the ISA with SVM (support vector machine) classifier. The result shows that rainfall variables and ISA are significantly correlated to the flood occurrence in Tainan City. With applying the logistic function, the likelihood of flood occurrence can be estimated and mapped over the study area. This study suggests the method is simple and feasible for rapid flood susceptibility mapping, when real-time rainfall observations can be available, and it has potential for future flood assessment, with incorporating climate change projections and urban growth prediction.

Cyber Surveillance for Flood Disasters

PubMed Central

Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

2015-01-01

Regional heavy rainfall is usually caused by the influence of extreme weather conditions. Instant heavy rainfall often results in the flooding of rivers and the neighboring low-lying areas, which is responsible for a large number of casualties and considerable property loss. The existing precipitation forecast systems mostly focus on the analysis and forecast of large-scale areas but do not provide precise instant automatic monitoring and alert feedback for individual river areas and sections. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an easy method to automatically monitor the flood object of a specific area, based on the currently widely used remote cyber surveillance systems and image processing methods, in order to obtain instant flooding and waterlogging event feedback. The intrusion detection mode of these surveillance systems is used in this study, wherein a flood is considered a possible invasion object. Through the detection and verification of flood objects, automatic flood risk-level monitoring of specific individual river segments, as well as the automatic urban inundation detection, has become possible. The proposed method can better meet the practical needs of disaster prevention than the method of large-area forecasting. It also has several other advantages, such as flexibility in location selection, no requirement of a standard water-level ruler, and a relatively large field of view, when compared with the traditional water-level measurements using video screens. The results can offer prompt reference for appropriate disaster warning actions in small areas, making them more accurate and effective. PMID:25621609

Can CO2 help save Venice from the Sea?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comerlati, Andrea; Ferronato, Massimiliano; Gambolati, Giuseppe; Putti, Mario; Teatini, Pietro

On 14 May this year, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi cut the ribbon on a multi-billion-dollar project named MOSE that is aimed at solving the problem of “acqua alta,” the increasingly frequent floods that jeopardize the survival of Venice. Cost is estimated (a few say conservatively) at 3 billion euros and construction time (a few say optimistically) at 8 years. MOSE involves building mobile barriers at the Venice Lagoon inlets to prevent severe Adriatic Sea storms from flooding the city. Although the Italian government and the local administrations have given their final approval, MOSE still has several opponents who believe it will cause severe threats to the lagoon ecosystem, and will soon become obsolete because of the expected sea level rise due to global warming.

Global Near Real-Time MODIS and Landsat Flood Mapping and Product Delivery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Policelli, F. S.; Slayback, D. A.; Tokay, M. M.; Brakenridge, G. R.

2014-12-01

Flooding is the most destructive, frequent, and costly natural disaster faced by modern society, and is increasing in frequency and damage (deaths, displacements, and financial costs) as populations increase and climate change generates more extreme weather events. When major flooding events occur, the disaster management community needs frequently updated and easily accessible information to better understand the extent of flooding and coordinate response efforts. With funding from NASA's Applied Sciences program, we developed and are now operating a near real-time global flood mapping system to help provide flood extent information within 24-48 hours of events. The principal element of the system applies a water detection algorithm to MODIS imagery, which is processed by the LANCE (Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS) system at NASA Goddard within a few hours of satellite overpass. Using imagery from both the Terra (10:30 AM local time overpass) and Aqua (1:30 PM) platforms allows the system to deliver an initial daily assessment of flood extent by late afternoon, and more robust assessments after accumulating cloud-free imagery over several days. Cloud cover is the primary limitation in detecting surface water from MODIS imagery. Other issues include the relatively coarse scale of the MODIS imagery (250 meters) for some events, the difficulty of detecting flood waters in areas with continuous canopy cover, confusion of shadow (cloud or terrain) with water, and accurately identifying detected water as flood as opposed to normal water extent. We are working on improvements to address these limitations. We have also begun delivery of near real time water maps at 30 m resolution from Landsat imagery. Although Landsat is not available daily globally, but only every 8 days if imagery from both operating platforms (Landsat 7 and 8) is accessed, it can provide useful higher resolution data on water extent when a clear acquisition coincides with an active flood event. These data products are provided in various formats on our website, and also via live OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) services, and ArcGIS Online accessible web maps, allowing easy access from a variety of platforms, from desktop GIS software to web browsers on mobile phones. https://oas.gsfc.nasa.gov/floodmap

Local community perception and awareness of flash floods vulnerability at a small catchment scale in the Bend Subcarpathians, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micu, Dana; Balteanu, Dan; Sima, Mihaela; Dumitrascu, Monica; Chendes, Viorel; Grigorescu, Ines; Dragota, Carmen; Dogaru, Diana; Costache, Andra

2015-04-01

The study aims to identify local communities perception and awareness in terms of hydro-meteorological extreme events in order to better understand the local context of vulnerability and communities resilience to flash floods as well as the mitigation measures undertaken by local authorities to cope with these phenomena. The study-area is located in the Bend Subcarpathians, Romania, a region well known for high tectonic mobility and dynamics of hydro-geomorphic processes (e.g. floods and flash floods, landslides). The study was conducted in the framework of VULMIN project (PN-II-PT-PCCA-2011-3.1-1587), funded by the Ministry of National Education for the period 2012-2016 (http://www.igar-vulmin.ro). The previous analyses conducted in the project showed a high exposure to flash floods of small river catchments (generally below 200 km2 ) located in the study-area (Teleajen-Buzau hydrographic area). Some of the most recent events (2005, 2008, 2010 and 2014) had a high impact on local communities in terms of important losses to their assets and psychological effects. Thus, in the summer 2014, a questionnaire-based survey was addressed to over 50 households (from 5 villages), significantly affected by flash floods and structured interviews were held with local authorities (local municipalities, county Civil Protection Inspectorates). The questionnaire was focused on the perception of human vulnerability to environmental change and extreme events, mainly floods, aiming to outline the personal experience, post-disaster rehabilitation, awareness, worrying and opinion on the measures aimed to prevent and mitigate the effects of flooding. The flash flood events are of major concern for local community, due to their high return period (1-5 years) and magnitude in the recent years. This influences also the population response and adaptive capacity to these events, which is limited to individual measures (e.g. buildings consolidations and relocations). The survey showed a discrepancy between the people's perception on the local authorities reaction during and post-event and the local authorities' perception on their response and preparedness measures. It was noticed a high interest of local authorities to access scientific data (flash flood hazard and risk maps, climate change projections) to support the development of adequate mitigation measures. However, the lack of funds is still limiting their implementation as well as the development of a long-term strategy.

City-scale accessibility of emergency responders operating during flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Daniel; Yu, Dapeng; Pattison, Ian; Wilby, Robert; Bosher, Lee; Patel, Ramila; Thompson, Philip; Trowell, Keith; Draycon, Julia; Halse, Martin; Yang, Lili; Ryley, Tim

2017-01-01

Emergency responders often have to operate and respond to emergency situations during dynamic weather conditions, including floods. This paper demonstrates a novel method using existing tools and datasets to evaluate emergency responder accessibility during flood events within the city of Leicester, UK. Accessibility was quantified using the 8 and 10 min legislative targets for emergency provision for the ambulance and fire and rescue services respectively under "normal" no-flood conditions, as well as flood scenarios of various magnitudes (1 in 20-year, 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year recurrence intervals), with both surface water and fluvial flood conditions considered. Flood restrictions were processed based on previous hydrodynamic inundation modelling undertaken and inputted into a Network Analysis framework as restrictions for surface water and fluvial flood events. Surface water flooding was shown to cause more disruption to emergency responders operating within the city due to its widespread and spatially distributed footprint when compared to fluvial flood events of comparable magnitude. Fire and rescue 10 min accessibility was shown to decrease from 100, 66.5, 39.8 and 26.2 % under the no-flood, 1 in 20-year, 1 in 100-year and 1 in 1000-year surface water flood scenarios respectively. Furthermore, total inaccessibility was shown to increase with flood magnitude from 6.0 % under the 1 in 20-year scenario to 31.0 % under the 1 in 100-year flood scenario. Additionally, the evolution of emergency service accessibility throughout a surface water flood event is outlined, demonstrating the rapid impact on emergency service accessibility within the first 15 min of the surface water flood event, with a reduction in service coverage and overlap being observed for the ambulance service during a 1 in 100-year flood event. The study provides evidence to guide strategic planning for decision makers prior to and during emergency response to flood events at the city scale. It also provides a readily transferable method for exploring the impacts of natural hazards or disruptions in other cities or regions based on historic, scenario-based events or real-time forecasting, if such data are available.

Assessment of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2013-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. The Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Therefore, investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of adaptation strategy for future climate change. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published 'Statistics of flood', which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. By using these flood data, we estimated damage by inundation inside a levee for each prefecture based on a statistical method. On the basis of estimated damage, we developed flood risk curves in the Tokyo metropolitan area, representing relationship between damage and exceedance probability of flood for the period 1976-2008 for each prefecture. Based on the flood risk curve, we attempted evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause for regional difference of flood risk. By analyzing flood risk curves, we found out regional differences of flood risk. We identified high flood risk in Tokyo and Saitama prefecture. On the other hand, flood risk was relatively low in Ibaraki and Chiba prefecture. We found that these regional differences of flood risk can be attributed to spatial distribution of entire property value and ratio of damaged housing units in each prefecture.We also attempted to evaluate influence of climate change on potential flood risk by considering variation of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Results shows that we can evaluate potential impact of precipitation change on flood risk with high accuracy by using our methodology. Acknowledgments This study is conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA) and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan

Hot wet spots of Swiss buildings - detecting clusters of flood exposure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Veronika; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2016-04-01

Where are the hotspots of flood exposure in Switzerland? There is no single answer but rather a wide range of findings depending on the databases and methods used. In principle, the analysis of flood exposure is the overlay of two spatial datasets, one on flood hazard and one on assets, e.g. buildings. The presented study aims to test a new developed approach which is based on public available Swiss data. On the hazard side, these are two different types of flood hazard maps each representing a similar return period beyond the dimensioning of structural protection systems. When it comes to assets we use nationwide harmonized data on building, namely a complete dataset of building polygons to which we assign features as volume, residents and monetary value. For the latter we apply findings of multivariate analyses of insurance data. By overlaying building polygons with the flood hazard map we identify the exposed buildings. We analyse the resulting spatial distribution of flood exposure at different levels of scales (local to regional) using administrative units (e.g. municipalities) but also artificial grids with a corresponding size (e.g. 5 000 m). The presentation focuses on the identification of hotspots highlighting the influence of the applied data and methods, e.g. local scan statistics testing intensities within and without potential clusters or log relative exposure surfaces based on kernel intensity estimates. We find a major difference of identified hotspots between absolute values and normalized values of exposure. Whereas the hotspots of flood exposure in absolute figures mirrors the underlying distribution of buildings, the hotspots of flood exposure ratios show very different pictures. We conclude that findings on flood exposure vary depending on the data and moreover the methods used and therefore need to be communicated carefully and appropriate to different stakeholders who may use the information for decision making on flood risk management.

Frequency analyses for recent regional floods in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melcher, Nick B.; Martinez, Patsy G.; ,

1996-01-01

During 1993-95, significant floods that resulted in record-high river stages, loss of life, and significant property damage occurred in the United States. The floods were caused by unique global weather patterns that produced large amounts of rain over large areas. Standard methods for flood-frequency analyses may not adequately consider the probability of recurrence of these global weather patterns.

Channel evolution on the dammed Elwha River, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draut, A.E.; Logan, J.B.; Mastin, M.C.

2011-01-01

Like many rivers in the western U.S., the Elwha River, Washington, has changed substantially over the past century in response to natural and human forcing. The lower river is affected by two upstream dams that are slated for removal as part of a major river restoration effort. In preparation for studying the effects of dam removal, we present a comprehensive field and aerial photographic analysis of dam influence on an anabranching, gravel-bed river. Over the past century with the dams in place, loss of the upstream sediment supply has caused spatial variations in the sedimentary and geomorphic character of the lower Elwha River channel. Bed sediment is armored and better sorted than on the naturally evolving bed upstream of the dams. On time scales of flood seasons, the channel immediately below the lower dam is fairly stable, but progresses toward greater mobility downstream such that the lowermost portion of the river responded to a recent 40-year flood with bank erosion and bed-elevation changes on a scale approaching that of the natural channel above the dams. In general, channel mobility in the lowest 4 km of the Elwha River has not decreased substantially with time. Enough fine sediment remains in the floodplain that – given sufficient flood forcing – the channel position, sinuosity, and braiding index change substantially. The processes by which this river accesses new fine sediment below the dams (rapid migration into noncohesive banks and avulsion of new channels) allow it to compensate for loss of upstream sediment supply more readily than would a dammed river with cohesive banks or a more limited supply of alluvium. The planned dam removal will provide a valuable opportunity to evaluate channel response to the future restoration of natural upstream sediment supply.

Sources of land-derived runoff to a coral reef-fringed embayment identified using geochemical tracers in nearshore sediment traps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Takesue, Renee K.; Bothner, Michael H.; Reynolds, Richard L.

2009-01-01

Geochemical tracers, including Ba, Co, Th, 7Be, 137Cs and 210Pb, and magnetic properties were used to characterize terrestrial runoff collected in nearshore time-series sediment traps in Hanalei Bay, Kauai, during flood and dry conditions in summer 2006, and to fingerprint possible runoff sources in the lower watershed. In combination, the tracers indicate that runoff during a flood in August could have come from cultivated taro fields bordering the lower reach of the river. Land-based runoff associated with summer floods may have a greater impact on coral reef communities in Hanalei Bay than in winter because sediment persists for several months. During dry periods, sediment carried by the Hanalei River appears to have been mobilized primarily by undercutting of low 7Be, low 137Cs riverbanks composed of soil weathered from tholeiitic basalt with low Ba and Co concentrations. Following a moderate rainfall event in September, high 7Be sediment carried by the Hanalei River was probably mobilized by overland flow in the upper watershed. Ba-desorption in low-salinity coastal water limited its use to a qualitative runoff tracer in nearshore sediment. 210Pb had limited usefulness as a terrestrial tracer in the nearshore due to a large dissolved oceanic source and scavenging onto resuspended bottom sediment. 210Pb-scavenging does, however, illustrate the role resuspension could play in the accumulation of particle-reactive contaminants in nearshore sediment. Co and 137Cs were not affected by desorption or geochemical scavenging and showed the greatest potential as quantitative sediment provenance indicators in material collected in nearshore sediment traps.

Flood Mapping in the Lower Mekong River Basin Using Daily MODIS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fayne, Jessica V.; Bolten, John D.; Doyle, Colin S.; Fuhrmann, Sven; Rice, Matthew T.; Houser, Paul R.; Lakshmi, Venkat

2017-01-01

In flat homogenous terrain such as in Cambodia and Vietnam, the monsoon season brings significant and consistent flooding between May and November. To monitor flooding in the Lower Mekong region, the near real-time NASA Flood Extent Product (NASA-FEP) was developed using seasonal normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) differences from the 250 m resolution Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor compared to daily observations. The use of a percentage change interval classification relating to various stages of flooding reduces might be confusing to viewers or potential users, and therefore reducing the product usage. To increase the product usability through simplification, the classification intervals were compared with other commonly used change detection schemes to identify the change classification scheme that best delineates flooded areas. The percentage change method used in the NASA-FEP proved to be helpful in delineating flood boundaries compared to other change detection methods. The results of the accuracy assessments indicate that the -75% NDVI change interval can be reclassified to a descriptive 'flood' classification. A binary system was used to simplify the interpretation of the NASA-FEP by removing extraneous information from lower interval change classes.

Flash flood hazard assessment through modelling in small semi-arid watersheds. The example of the Beni Mellal watershed in Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werren, G.; Balin, D.; Reynard, E.; Lane, S. N.

2012-04-01

Flood modelling is essential for flood hazard assessment. Modelling becomes a challenge in small, ungauged watersheds prone to flash floods, like the ones draining the town of Beni Mellal (Morocco). Four temporary streams meet in the urban area of Beni Mellal, producing every year sheet floods, harmful to infrastructure and to people. Here, statistical analysis may not give realistic results, but the study of these repeated real flash flood events may provide a better understanding of watershed specific hydrology. This study integrates a larger cooperation project between Switzerland and Morroco, aimed at knowledge transfer in disaster risk reduction, especially through hazard mapping and land-use planning, related to implementation of hazard maps. Hydrologic and hydraulic modelling was carried out to obtain hazard maps. An important point was to find open source data and methods that could still produce a realistic model for the area concerned, in order to provide easy-to-use, cost-effective tools for risk management in developing countries like Morocco, where routine data collection is largely lacking. The data used for modelling is the Web available TRMM 3-Hour 0.25 degree rainfall data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Project (TRMM). Hydrologic modelling for discharge estimation was undertaken using methods available in the HEC-HMS software provided by the US Army Corps of Engineers® (USACE). Several transfer models were used, so as to choose the best-suited method available. As no model calibration was possible for no measured flow data was available, a one-at-the-time sensitivity analysis was performed on the parameters chosen, in order to detect their influence on the results. But the most important verification method remained field observation, through post-flood field campaigns aimed at mapping water surfaces and depths in the flooded areas, as well as river section monitoring, where rough discharge estimates could be obtained using empirical equations. Another information source was local knowledge, as people could give a rough estimation of concentration time by describing flood evolution. Finally, hydraulic modelling of the flooded areas in the urban perimeter was performed using the USACE HEC-RAS® software capabilities. A specific challenge at this stage was field morphology, as the flooded areas form large alluvial fans, with very different flood behaviour compared to flood plains. Model "calibration" at this stage was undertaken using the mapped water surfaces and depths. Great care was taken for field geometry design, where field observations, measured cross sections and field images were used to improve the existing DTM data. The model included protection dikes already built by local authorities in their flood-fight effort. Because of flash-flood specific behaviour, only maximal flooded surfaces and flow velocities were simulated through steady flow analysis in HEC-RAS. The discharge estimates obtained for the chosen event were comparable to 10-year return periods as estimated by the watershed authorities. Times of concentration correspond to this previous estimation and to local people descriptions. The modelled water surfaces reflect field reality. Flash-flood modelling demands extensive knowledge of the studied field in order to compensate data scarcity. However, more precise data, like radar rainfall estimates available in Morocco, would definitely improve outputs. In this perspective, better data access at the local level and good use of the available methods could benefit the disaster risk reduction effort as a whole.

An Evaluation of Selected Extraordinary Floods in the United States Reported by the U.S. Geological Survey and Implications for Future Advancement of Flood Science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costa, John E.; Jarrett, Robert D.

2008-01-01

Thirty flood peak discharges determine the envelope curve of maximum floods documented in the United States by the U.S. Geological Survey. These floods occurred from 1927 to 1978 and are extraordinary not just in their magnitude, but in their hydraulic and geomorphic characteristics. The reliability of the computed discharge of these extraordinary floods was reviewed and evaluated using current (2007) best practices. Of the 30 flood peak discharges investigated, only 7 were measured at daily streamflow-gaging stations that existed when the flood occurred, and 23 were measured at miscellaneous (ungaged) sites. Methods used to measure these 30 extraordinary flood peak discharges consisted of 21 slope-area measurements, 2 direct current-meter measurements, 1 culvert measurement, 1 rating-curve extension, and 1 interpolation and rating-curve extension. The remaining four peak discharges were measured using combinations of culvert, slope-area, flow-over-road, and contracted-opening measurements. The method of peak discharge determination for one flood is unknown. Changes to peak discharge or rating are recommended for 20 of the 30 flood peak discharges that were evaluated. Nine floods retained published peak discharges, but their ratings were downgraded. For two floods, both peak discharge and rating were corrected and revised. Peak discharges for five floods that are subject to significant uncertainty due to complex field and hydraulic conditions, were re-rated as estimates. This study resulted in 5 of the 30 peak discharges having revised values greater than about 10 percent different from the original published values. Peak discharges were smaller for three floods (North Fork Hubbard Creek, Texas; El Rancho Arroyo, New Mexico; South Fork Wailua River, Hawaii), and two peak discharges were revised upward (Lahontan Reservoir tributary, Nevada; Bronco Creek, Arizona). Two peak discharges were indeterminate because they were concluded to have been debris flows with peak discharges that were estimated by an inappropriate method (slope-area) (Big Creek near Waynesville, North Carolina; Day Creek near Etiwanda, California). Original field notes and records could not be found for three of the floods, however, some data (copies of original materials, records of reviews) were available for two of these floods. A rating was assigned to each of seven peak discharges that had no rating. Errors identified in the reviews include misidentified flow processes, incorrect drainage areas for very small basins, incorrect latitude and longitude, improper field methods, arithmetic mistakes in hand calculations, omission of measured high flows when developing rating curves, and typographical errors. Common problems include use of two-section slope-area measurements, poor site selection, uncertainties in Manning's n-values, inadequate review, lost data files, and insufficient and inadequately described high-water marks. These floods also highlight the extreme difficulty in making indirect discharge measurements following extraordinary floods. Significantly, none of the indirect measurements are rated better than fair, which indicates the need to improve methodology to estimate peak discharge. Highly unsteady flow and resulting transient hydraulic phenomena, two-dimensional flow patterns, debris flows at streamflow-gaging stations, and the possibility of disconnected flow surfaces are examples of unresolved problems not well handled by current indirect discharge methodology. On the basis of a comprehensive review of 50,000 annual peak discharges and miscellaneous floods in California, problems with individual flood peak discharges would be expected to require a revision of discharge or rating curves at a rate no greater than about 0.10 percent of all floods. Many extraordinary floods create complex flow patterns and processes that cannot be adequately documented with quasi-steady, uniform one-dimensional analyses. These floods are most accura

Deglacial climate modulated by the storage and release of Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Condron, A.; Coletti, A. J.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

Periods of abrupt climate cooling during the last deglaciation (20 - 8 kyr ago) are often attributed to glacial outburst floods slowing the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we present results from a series of climate model simulations showing that the episodic break-up and mobilization of thick, perennial, Arctic sea ice during this time would have released considerable volumes of freshwater directly to the Nordic Seas, where processes regulating large-scale climate occur. Massive sea ice export events to the North Atlantic are generated whenever the transport of sea ice is enhanced, either by changes in atmospheric circulation, rising sea level submerging the Bering land bridge, or glacial outburst floods draining into the Arctic Ocean from the Mackenzie River. We find that the volumes of freshwater released to the Nordic Seas are similar to, or larger than, those estimated to have come from terrestrial outburst floods, including the discharge at the onset of the Younger Dryas. Our results provide the first evidence that the storage and release of Arctic sea ice helped drive deglacial climate change by modulating the strength of the AMOC.

Is mosquito larval source management appropriate for reducing malaria in areas of extensive flooding in The Gambia? A cross-over intervention trial.

PubMed

Majambere, Silas; Pinder, Margaret; Fillinger, Ulrike; Ameh, David; Conway, David J; Green, Clare; Jeffries, David; Jawara, Musa; Milligan, Paul J; Hutchinson, Robert; Lindsay, Steven W

2010-02-01

Larviciding to control malaria was assessed in rural areas with extensive seasonal flooding. Larval and adult mosquitoes and malaria incidence were surveyed routinely in four 100-km(2) areas either side of the Gambia River. Baseline data were collected in 2005. Microbial larvicide was applied to all water bodies by hand application with water-dispersible granular formulations and corn granules weekly from May to November in two areas in 2006 and in the other two areas in 2007 in a cross-over design. The intervention was associated with a reduction in habitats with late stage anopheline larvae and an 88% reduction in larval densities (P < 0.001). The effect of the intervention on mosquito densities was not pronounced and was confounded by the distance of villages to the major breeding sites and year (P = 0.002). There was no reduction in clinical malaria or anemia. Ground applications of non-residual larvicides with simple equipment are not effective in riverine areas with extensive flooding, where many habitats are poorly demarcated, highly mobile, and inaccessible on foot.

Flooding and Flood Management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

2011-01-01

Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

Long-distance flights and high-risk breeding by nomadic waterbirds on desert salt lakes.

PubMed

Pedler, Reece D; Ribot, Raoul F H; Bennett, Andrew T D

2018-02-01

Understanding and conserving mobile species presents complex challenges, especially for animals in stochastic or changing environments. Nomadic waterbirds must locate temporary water in arid biomes where rainfall is highly unpredictable in space and time. To achieve this they need to travel over vast spatial scales and time arrival to exploit pulses in food resources. How they achieve this is an enduring mystery.  We investigated these challenges in the colonial-nesting Banded Stilt (Cladorhynchus leucocephalus), a nomadic shorebird of conservation concern. Hitherto, Banded Stilts were hypothesized to have only 1-2 chances to breed during their long lifetime, when flooding rain fills desert salt lakes, triggering mass-hatching of brine shrimp. Over 6 years, we satellite tagged 57 individuals, conducted 21 aerial surveys to detect nesting colonies on 14 Australian desert salt lakes, and analyzed 3 decades of Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to quantify salt-lake flood frequency and extent. Within days of distant inland rainfall, Banded Stilts flew 1,000-2,000 km to reach flooded salt lakes. On arrival, females laid over half their body weight in eggs. We detected nesting episodes across the species' range at 7 times the frequency reported during the previous 80 years. Nesting colonies of thousands formed following minor floods, yet most were subsequently abandoned when the water rapidly evaporated prior to egg hatching. Satellite imagery revealed twice as many flood events sufficient for breeding-colony initiation as recorded colonies, suggesting that nesting at remote sites has been underdetected. Individuals took risk on uncertain breeding opportunities by responding to frequent minor flood events between infrequent extensive flooding, exemplifying the extreme adaptability and trade-offs of species exploiting unstable environments. The conservation challenges of nest predation by overabundant native gulls and anthropogenic modifications to salt lakes filling frequencies require investigation, as do the physiological and navigational mechanisms that enable such extreme strategies. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Use of water-external micellar dispersions in oil recovery

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, S.C.

1970-04-14

A water-external micellar dispersion followed by a mobility buffer and a water drive were used for enhanced oil recovery. Field Berea sandstone cores (19.6 percent porosity, 387 md permeability) were saturated with brine (16,500 ppM sodium chloride), flooded with crude oil from the Henry lease in Illinois (viscosity of 5.9 cp at 72/sup 0/F, specific gravity of 0.833), and waterflooded with water from Henry lease (17,210 ppM TDS). The micellar dispersion followed by the mobility buffer produced 99.6 percent of the oil in the core. The micellar slug contained ammonium petroleum sulfonate (MW 450), Henry crude oil, isopropanol, nonyl phenol,more » sodium hydroxide, and water from the Palestine water reservoir in Palestine, Illinois (412 ppM TDS). No. 530 Pusher, ammonium thiocyanate, isopropanol, and Palestine water were in the mobility buffer.« less

A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas

PubMed Central

Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

2016-01-01

Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation. PMID:27527202

Effects of flooding and aging on phytoremediation of typical polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in mangrove sediments by Kandelia obovata seedlings.

PubMed

Li, Rui-Long; Liu, Bei-Bei; Zhu, Ya-Xian; Zhang, Yong

2016-06-01

A laboratory experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of flooding and aging on the phytoremediation of naphthalene (Nap), anthracene (Ant) and benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) in mangrove sediment by Kandelia obovata (K. obovata) Druce seedlings. Flooding increased dissipation efficiency in the rhizosphere zone from 69.47% to 82.45%, 64.27% to 80.41%, and 61.55% to 78.31% for Nap, Ant and B[a]P, respectively. Aging decreased dissipation efficiency significantly. Further investigation demonstrated that increased enzyme activity was one of important factors for increasing PAHs dissipation rates in flooded mangrove sediments. Moreover, a novel method for in situ quantitative investigation of PAHs distribution in root tissues was established using microscopic fluorescence spectra analysis. Subsequently, the effects of flooding and aging on the distribution of PAHs in root tissues were evaluated using this established method. The order of bioavailable fractions of PAHs after phytoremediation was as follows: non-aging/non-flooding>flooding>aging. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond 'flood hotspots': Modelling emergency service accessibility during flooding in York, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coles, Daniel; Yu, Dapeng; Wilby, Robert L.; Green, Daniel; Herring, Zara

2017-03-01

This paper describes the development of a method that couples flood modelling with network analysis to evaluate the accessibility of city districts by emergency responders during flood events. We integrate numerical modelling of flood inundation with geographical analysis of service areas for the Ambulance Service and the Fire & Rescue Service. The method was demonstrated for two flood events in the City of York, UK to assess the vulnerability of care homes and sheltered accommodation. We determine the feasibility of emergency services gaining access within the statutory 8- and 10-min targets for high-priority, life-threatening incidents 75% of the time, during flood episodes. A hydrodynamic flood inundation model (FloodMap) simulates the 2014 pluvial and 2015 fluvial flood events. Predicted floods (with depth >25 cm and areas >100 m2) were overlain on the road network to identify sites with potentially restricted access. Accessibility of the city to emergency responders during flooding was quantified and mapped using; (i) spatial coverage from individual emergency nodes within the legislated timeframes, and; (ii) response times from individual emergency service nodes to vulnerable care homes and sheltered accommodation under flood and non-flood conditions. Results show that, during the 2015 fluvial flood, the area covered by two of the three Fire & Rescue Service stations reduced by 14% and 39% respectively, while the remaining station needed to increase its coverage by 39%. This amounts to an overall reduction of 6% and 20% for modelled and observed floods respectively. During the 2014 surface water flood, 7 out of 22 care homes (32%) and 15 out of 43 sheltered accommodation nodes (35%) had modelled response times above the 8-min threshold from any Ambulance station. Overall, modelled surface water flooding has a larger spatial footprint than fluvial flood events. Hence, accessibility of emergency services may be impacted differently depending on flood mechanism. Moreover, we expect emergency services to face greater challenges under a changing climate with a growing, more vulnerable population. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other cities, as well as for scenario-based evaluation of emergency preparedness to support strategic decision making, and in real-time forecasting to guide operational decisions where heavy rainfall lead-time and spatial resolution are sufficient.

Hydrological change: Towards a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne F.

2018-01-01

Several studies have found that the frequency, magnitude and spatio-temporal distribution of droughts and floods have significantly increased in many regions of the world. Yet, most of the methods used in detecting trends in hydrological extremes 1) focus on either floods or droughts, and/or 2) base their assessment on characteristics that, even though useful for trend identification, cannot be directly used in decision making, e.g. integrated water resources management and disaster risk reduction. In this paper, we first discuss the need for a consistent approach to assess changes on both floods and droughts, and then propose a method based on the theory of runs and threshold levels. Flood and drought changes were assessed in terms of frequency, length and surplus/deficit volumes. This paper also presents an example application using streamflow data from two hydrometric stations along the Po River basin (Italy), Piacenza and Pontelagoscuro, and then discuss opportunities and challenges of the proposed method.

Development of cost-effective surfactant flooding technology. Annual report for the period, September 30, 1993--September 29, 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pope, G.; Sepehrnoori, K.

1995-08-01

This research consists of the parallel development of a new chemical flooding simulator and the application of our existing UTCHEM simulation code to model surfactant flooding. The new code is based upon a completely new numerical method that combines for the first time higher-order finite-difference methods, flux limiters, and implicit algorithms. Results indicate that this approach has significant advantages in some problems and will likely enable us to simulate much larger and more realistic chemical floods once it is fully developed. Additional improvements have also been made to the UTCHEM code, and it has been applied to the study ofmore » stochastic reservoirs with and without horizontal wells to evaluate methods to reduce the cost and risk of surfactant flooding. During the second year of this contract, we have already made significant progress on both of these tasks and are ahead of schedule on both of them.« less

Spatial Analysis of Land Subsidence and Flood Pattern Based on DInSAR Method in Sentinel Sar Imagery and Weighting Method in Geo-Hazard Parameters Combination in North Jakarta Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasetyo, Y.; Yuwono, B. D.; Ramadhanis, Z.

2018-02-01

The reclamation program carried out in most cities in North Jakarta is directly adjacent to the Jakarta Bay. Beside this program, the density of population and development center in North Jakarta office has increased the need for underground water excessively. As a result of these things, land subsidence in North Jakarta area is relatively high and so intense. The research methodology was developed based on the method of remote sensing and geographic information systems, expected to describe the spatial correlation between the land subsidence and flood phenomenon in North Jakarta. The DInSAR (Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) method with satellite image data Radar (SAR Sentinel 1A) for the years 2015 to 2016 acquisitions was used in this research. It is intended to obtain a pattern of land subsidence in North Jakarta and then combined with flood patterns. For the preparation of flood threat zoning pattern, this research has been modeling in spatial technique based on a weighted parameter of rainfall, elevation, flood zones and land use. In the final result, we have obtained a flood hazard zonation models then do the overlap against DInSAR processing results. As a result of the research, Geo-hazard modelling has a variety results as: 81% of flood threat zones consist of rural area, 12% consists of un-built areas and 7% consists of water areas. Furthermore, the correlation of land subsidence to flood risk zone is divided into three levels of suitability with 74% in high class, 22% in medium class and 4% in low class. For the result of spatial correlation area between land subsidence and flood risk zone are 77% detected in rural area, 17% detected in un-built area and 6% detected in a water area. Whereas the research product is the geo-hazard maps in North Jakarta as the basis of the spatial correlation analysis between the land subsidence and flooding phenomena.double point.

Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for El-Awali River Catchment-Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Hijazi, Samar

2016-04-01

River flooding prediction and flood forecasting has become an essential stage in the major flood mitigation plans worldwide. Delineation of floodplains resulting from a river flooding event requires coupling between a Hydrological rainfall-runoff model to calculate the resulting outflows of the catchment and a hydraulic model to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along the river main course. In this study several methods were applied to predict the flood discharge of El-Awali River using the available historical data and gauging records and by conducting several site visits. The HEC-HMS Rainfall-Runoff model was built and applied to calculate the flood hydrographs along several outlets on El-Awali River and calibrated using the storm that took place on January 2013 and caused flooding of the major Lebanese rivers and by conducting additional site visits to calculate proper river sections and record witnesses of the locals. The Hydraulic HEC-RAS model was then applied to calculate the corresponding water surface profiles along El-Awali River main reach. Floodplain delineation and Hazard mapping for 10,50 and 100 years return periods was performed using the Watershed Modeling System WMS. The results first show an underestimation of the flood discharge recorded by the operating gauge stations on El-Awali River, whereas, the discharge of the 100 years flood may reach up to 506 m3/s compared by lower values calculated using the traditional discharge estimation methods. Second any flooding of El-Awali River may be catastrophic especially to the coastal part of the catchment and can cause tragic losses in agricultural lands and properties. Last a major floodplain was noticed in Marj Bisri village this floodplain can reach more than 200 meters in width. Overall, performance was good and the Rainfall-Runoff model can provide valuable information about flows especially on ungauged points and can perform a great aid for the floodplain delineation and flood prediction methods in poorly gauged basins, but further model updates and calibration is always required to compensate the weaknesses in such model and attain better results.

Methods for estimating flood frequency in Montana based on data through water year 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parrett, Charles; Johnson, Dave R.

2004-01-01

Annual peak discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years (T-year floods) were determined for 660 gaged sites in Montana and in adjacent areas of Idaho, Wyoming, and Canada, based on data through water year 1998. The updated flood-frequency information was subsequently used in regression analyses, either ordinary or generalized least squares, to develop equations relating T-year floods to various basin and climatic characteristics, equations relating T-year floods to active-channel width, and equations relating T-year floods to bankfull width. The equations can be used to estimate flood frequency at ungaged sites. Montana was divided into eight regions, within which flood characteristics were considered to be reasonably homogeneous, and the three sets of regression equations were developed for each region. A measure of the overall reliability of the regression equations is the average standard error of prediction. The average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics ranged from 37.4 percent to 134.1 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on active-channel width ranged from 57.2 percent to 141.3 percent. Average standard errors of prediction for the equations based on bankfull width ranged from 63.1 percent to 155.5 percent. In most regions, the equations based on basin and climatic characteristics generally had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on active-channel or bankfull width. An exception was the Southeast Plains Region, where all equations based on active-channel width had smaller average standard errors of prediction than equations based on basin and climatic characteristics or bankfull width. Methods for weighting estimates derived from the basin- and climatic-characteristic equations and the channel-width equations also were developed. The weights were based on the cross correlation of residuals from the different methods and the average standard errors of prediction. When all three methods were combined, the average standard errors of prediction ranged from 37.4 percent to 120.2 percent. Weighting of estimates reduced the standard errors of prediction for all T-year flood estimates in four regions, reduced the standard errors of prediction for some T-year flood estimates in two regions, and provided no reduction in average standard error of prediction in two regions. A computer program for solving the regression equations, weighting estimates, and determining reliability of individual estimates was developed and placed on the USGS Montana District World Wide Web page. A new regression method, termed Region of Influence regression, also was tested. Test results indicated that the Region of Influence method was not as reliable as the regional equations based on generalized least squares regression. Two additional methods for estimating flood frequency at ungaged sites located on the same streams as gaged sites also are described. The first method, based on a drainage-area-ratio adjustment, is intended for use on streams where the ungaged site of interest is located near a gaged site. The second method, based on interpolation between gaged sites, is intended for use on streams that have two or more streamflow-gaging stations.

Development of evaluation metod of flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirano, J.; Dairaku, K.

2012-12-01

Flood is one of the most significant natural hazards in Japan. In particular, the Tokyo metropolitan area has been affected by several large flood disasters. Investigating potential flood risk in Tokyo metropolitan area is important for development of climate change adaptation strategy. We aim to develop a method for evaluating flood risk in Tokyo Metropolitan area by considering effect of historical land use and land cover change, socio-economic change, and climatic change. Ministry of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism in Japan published "Statistics of flood", which contains data for flood causes, number of damaged houses, area of wetted surface, and total amount of damage for each flood at small municipal level. Based on these flood data, we constructed a flood database system for Tokyo metropolitan area for the period from 1961 to 2008 by using ArcGIS software.Based on these flood data , we created flood risk curve, representing the relation ship between damage and exceedbability of flood for the period 1976-2008. Based on the flood risk cruve, we aim to evaluate potential flood risk in the Tokyo metropolitan area and clarify the cause of regional difference in flood risk at Tokyo metropolitan area by considering effect of socio-economic change and climate change

Estimating the long-term historic evolution of exposure to flooding of coastal populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, A. J.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Wadey, M. P.

2015-06-01

Coastal managers face the task of assessing and managing flood risk. This requires knowledge of the area of land, the number of people, properties and other infrastructure potentially affected by floods. Such analyses are usually static; i.e. they only consider a snapshot of the current situation. This misses the opportunity to learn about the role of key drivers of historical changes in flood risk, such as development and population rise in the coastal flood plain, as well as sea-level rise. In this paper, we develop and apply a method to analyse the temporal evolution of residential population exposure to coastal flooding. It uses readily available data in a GIS environment. We examine how population and sea-level change have modified exposure over two centuries in two neighbouring coastal sites: Portsea and Hayling Islands on the UK south coast. The analysis shows that flood exposure changes as a result of increases in population, changes in coastal population density and sea level rise. The results indicate that to date, population change is the dominant driver of the increase in exposure to flooding in the study sites, but climate change may outweigh this in the future. A full analysis of changing flood risk is not possible as data on historic defences and wider vulnerability are not available. Hence, the historic evolution of flood exposure is as close as we can get to a historic evolution of flood risk. The method is applicable anywhere that suitable floodplain geometry, sea level and population data sets are available and could be widely applied, and will help inform coastal managers of the time evolution in coastal flood drivers.

The human impact of floods: a historical review of events 1980-2009 and systematic literature review.

PubMed

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Murray, Sarah; Kirsch, Thomas D

2013-04-16

Background. Floods are the most common natural disaster and the leading cause of natural disaster fatalities worldwide. Risk of catastrophic losses due to flooding is significant given deforestation and the increasing proximity of large populations to coastal areas, river basins and lakeshores. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of flood events on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters Methods. Data on the impact of floods were compiled using two methods, a historical review of flood events from 1980 to 2009 from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics, bivariate tests for associations and multinomial logistic regression of flood characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 539,811 deaths (range: 510,941 to 568,680), 361,974 injuries and 2,821,895,005 people affected by floods between 1980 and 2009. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of flood-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries being in a motor-vehicle and male gender are associated with increased mortality, whereas female gender may be linked to higher mortality in low-income countries. Conclusions. Expanded monitoring of floods, improved mitigation measures, and effective communication with civil authorities and vulnerable populations has the potential to reduce loss of life in future flood events.

The Human Impact of Floods: a Historical Review of Events 1980-2009 and Systematic Literature Review

PubMed Central

Doocy, Shannon; Daniels, Amy; Murray, Sarah; Kirsch, Thomas D.

2013-01-01

Background. Floods are the most common natural disaster and the leading cause of natural disaster fatalities worldwide. Risk of catastrophic losses due to flooding is significant given deforestation and the increasing proximity of large populations to coastal areas, river basins and lakeshores. The objectives of this review were to describe the impact of flood events on human populations in terms of mortality, injury, and displacement and, to the extent possible, identify risk factors associated with these outcomes. This is one of five reviews on the human impact of natural disasters Methods. Data on the impact of floods were compiled using two methods, a historical review of flood events from 1980 to 2009 from multiple databases and a systematic literature review of publications ending in October 2012. Analysis included descriptive statistics, bivariate tests for associations and multinomial logistic regression of flood characteristics and mortality using Stata 11.0. Findings. There were 539,811 deaths (range: 510,941 to 568,680), 361,974 injuries and 2,821,895,005 people affected by floods between 1980 and 2009. Inconsistent reporting suggests this is an underestimate, particularly in terms of the injured and affected populations. The primary cause of flood-related mortality is drowning; in developed countries being in a motor-vehicle and male gender are associated with increased mortality, whereas female gender may be linked to higher mortality in low-income countries. Conclusions. Expanded monitoring of floods, improved mitigation measures, and effective communication with civil authorities and vulnerable populations has the potential to reduce loss of life in future flood events. PMID:23857425

Explosive eruption of coal and basalt and the end-Permian mass extinction

PubMed Central

Ogden, Darcy E.; Sleep, Norman H.

2012-01-01

The end-Permian extinction decimated up to 95% of carbonate shell-bearing marine species and 80% of land animals. Isotopic excursions, dissolution of shallow marine carbonates, and the demise of carbonate shell-bearing organisms suggest global warming and ocean acidification. The temporal association of the extinction with the Siberia flood basalts at approximately 250 Ma is well known, and recent evidence suggests these flood basalts may have mobilized carbon in thick deposits of organic-rich sediments. Large isotopic excursions recorded in this period are potentially explained by rapid venting of coal-derived methane, which has primarily been attributed to metamorphism of coal by basaltic intrusion. However, recently discovered contemporaneous deposits of fly ash in northern Canada suggest large-scale combustion of coal as an additional mechanism for rapid release of carbon. This massive coal combustion may have resulted from explosive interaction with basalt sills of the Siberian Traps. Here we present physical analysis of explosive eruption of coal and basalt, demonstrating that it is a viable mechanism for global extinction. We describe and constrain the physics of this process including necessary magnitudes of basaltic intrusion, mixing and mobilization of coal and basalt, ascent to the surface, explosive combustion, and the atmospheric rise necessary for global distribution. PMID:22184229

The link between land use and flood risk assessment in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sörensen, Johanna; Kalantari, Zahra

2017-04-01

Densification of urban areas rises a concern for increased pluvial flooding. Flood risk in urban areas might rise under impact of land use changes. Urbanisation involves conversion of natural areas to impermeable areas giving lower infiltration rates and increased runoff. When high-intense rainfall excess the capacity of the drainage system in a city, high runoff causes pluvial flooding in low-laying areas. In the present study, a long time series (20 years) of geo-referenced flood claims from property owners has been collected and analysed in detail to assess flood risk under impact of land use changes in urban areas. The flood claim data come from property owners with flood insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls, as well as flooding from the drainage system, and are used as a proxy for flood severity. The spatial relationships between land use change and flood occurrences in different urban areas were analysed. Special emphasis were put on how nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure relates to flood risk. The relationships defined by a statistical method explaining the tendencies where the land use change contributes to flood risk changes and others engaged factors.

Development of Probabilistic Flood Inundation Mapping For Flooding Induced by Dam Failure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C.; Yeh, J. J. J.

2017-12-01

A primary function of flood inundation mapping is to forecast flood hazards and assess potential losses. However, uncertainties limit the reliability of inundation hazard assessments. Major sources of uncertainty should be taken into consideration by an optimal flood management strategy. This study focuses on the 20km reach downstream of the Shihmen Reservoir in Taiwan. A dam failure induced flood herein provides the upstream boundary conditions of flood routing. The two major sources of uncertainty that are considered in the hydraulic model and the flood inundation mapping herein are uncertainties in the dam break model and uncertainty of the roughness coefficient. The perturbance moment method is applied to a dam break model and the hydro system model to develop probabilistic flood inundation mapping. Various numbers of uncertain variables can be considered in these models and the variability of outputs can be quantified. The probabilistic flood inundation mapping for dam break induced floods can be developed with consideration of the variability of output using a commonly used HEC-RAS model. Different probabilistic flood inundation mappings are discussed and compared. Probabilistic flood inundation mappings are hoped to provide new physical insights in support of the evaluation of concerning reservoir flooded areas.

Flood-plain and channel aggradation of selected bridge sites in the Iowa and Skunk River basins, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eash, D.A.

1996-01-01

Flood-plain and channel-aggradation rates were estimated at 10 bridge sites on the Iowa River upstream of Coralville Lake and at two bridge sites in the central part of the Skunk River Basin. Four measurement methods were used to quantify aggradation rates: (1) a dendrogeomorphic method that used tree-age data and sediment-deposition depths, (2) a bridge-opening cross-section method that compared historic and recent cross sections of bridge openings, (3) a stage-discharge rating-curve method that compared historic and recent stages for the 5-year flood discharge and the average discharge, and (4) nine sediment pads that were installed on the Iowa River flood plain at three bridge sites in the vicinity of Marshalltown. The sediment pads were installed prior to overbank flooding in 1993. Sediments deposited on the pads as a result of the 1993 flood ranged in depth from 0.004 to 2.95 feet. Measurement periods used to estimate average aggradation rates ranged from 1 to 98 years and varied among methods and sites. The highest aggradation rates calculated for the Iowa River Basin using the dendrogeomorphic and rating- curve measurement methods were for the State Highway 14 crossing at Marshalltown, where these highest rates were 0.045 and 0.124 feet per year, respectively. The highest aggradation rates calculated for the Skunk River Basin were for the U.S. Highway 63 crossing of the South Skunk River near Oskaloosa, where these highest rates were 0.051 and 0.298 feet per year, respectively.

Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

2017-04-01

Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Characterization of extreme flood and drought events in Singapore and investigation of their relationships with ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

2016-04-01

Flood and drought are hydrologic extreme events that have significant impact on human and natural systems. Characterization of flood and drought in terms of their start, duration and strength, and investigation of the impact of natural climate variability (i.e., ENSO) and anthropogenic climate change on them can help decision makers to facilitate adaptions to mitigate potential enormous economic costs. To date, numerous studies in this area have been conducted, however, they are primarily focused on extra-tropical regions. Therefore, this study presented a detailed framework to characterize flood and drought events in a tropical urban city-state (i.e., Singapore), based on daily data from 26 precipitation stations. Flood and drought events are extracted from standardized precipitation anomalies from monthly to seasonal time scales. Frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought at all the stations are analyzed based on crossing theory. In addition, spatial variation of flood and drought characteristics in Singapore is investigated using ordinary kriging method. Lastly, the impact of ENSO condition on flood and drought characteristics is analyzed using regional regression method. The results show that Singapore can be prone to extreme flood and drought events at both monthly and seasonal time scales. ENSO has significant influence on flood and drought characteristics in Singapore, but mainly during the South West Monsoon season. During the El Niño phase, drought can become more extreme. The results have implications for water management practices in Singapore.

Improving flash flood frequency analyses by using non-systematic dendrogeomorphic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mediero, Luis; María Bodoque, Jose; Garrote, Julio; Ballesteros-Cánovas, Juan Antonio; Aroca-Jimenez, Estefania

2017-04-01

Flash floods have a rapid hydrological response in catchments with short lag times, characterized by ''peaky'' hydrographs. The peak flows are reached within a few hours, thus giving little or no advance warning to prevent and mitigate flood damage. As a result, flash floods may result in a high social risk, as shown for instance by the 1997 Biescas disaster in Spain. The analysis and management of flood risk are clearly conditioned by data availability, especially in mountain areas where usually flash-floods occur. Nevertheless, in mountain basins there is often short data series available that are not accurate in terms of statistical significance. In addition, when flow data is ready for use maximum annual values are generally not as reliable as average flow values, since conventional stream gauge stations may not record the extreme floods, leading to gaps in the time series. Dendrogeomorphology has been shown to be especially useful for improving flood frequency analyses in catchments where short flood series limit the use of conventional hydrological methods. This study presents pros and cons of using a given probability distribution function, such as the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to account for non-systematic data provided by dendrogeomorphic techniques, in order to asses flood quantile estimates accuracy. To this end, we have considered a set of locations in Central Spain, where systematic flow available at a gauging site can be extended with non-systematic data obtained from implementation of dendrogeomorphic techniques.

Nonstationary decision model for flood risk decision scaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, Caitlin M.; Brown, Casey M.

2016-11-01

Hydroclimatic stationarity is increasingly questioned as a default assumption in flood risk management (FRM), but successor methods are not yet established. Some potential successors depend on estimates of future flood quantiles, but methods for estimating future design storms are subject to high levels of uncertainty. Here we apply a Nonstationary Decision Model (NDM) to flood risk planning within the decision scaling framework. The NDM combines a nonstationary probability distribution of annual peak flow with optimal selection of flood management alternatives using robustness measures. The NDM incorporates structural and nonstructural FRM interventions and valuation of flows supporting ecosystem services to calculate expected cost of a given FRM strategy. A search for the minimum-cost strategy under incrementally varied representative scenarios extending across the plausible range of flood trend and value of the natural flow regime discovers candidate FRM strategies that are evaluated and compared through a decision scaling analysis (DSA). The DSA selects a management strategy that is optimal or close to optimal across the broadest range of scenarios or across the set of scenarios deemed most likely to occur according to estimates of future flood hazard. We illustrate the decision framework using a stylized example flood management decision based on the Iowa City flood management system, which has experienced recent unprecedented high flow episodes. The DSA indicates a preference for combining infrastructural and nonstructural adaptation measures to manage flood risk and makes clear that options-based approaches cannot be assumed to be "no" or "low regret."

Large wood recruitment and transport during large floods: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comiti, F.; Lucía, A.; Rickenmann, D.

2016-09-01

Large wood (LW) elements transported during large floods are long known to have the capacity to induce dangerous obstructions along the channel network, mostly at bridges and at hydraulic structures such as weirs. However, our current knowledge of wood transport dynamics during high-magnitude flood events is still very scarce, mostly because these are (locally) rare and thus unlikely to be directly monitored. Therefore, post-event surveys are invaluable ways to get insights (although indirectly) on LW recruitment processes, transport distance, and factors inducing LW deposition - all aspects that are crucial for the proper management of river basins related to flood hazard mitigation. This paper presents a review of the (quite limited) literature available on LW transport during large floods, drawing extensively on the authors' own experience in mountain and piedmont rivers, published and unpublished. The overall picture emerging from these studies points to a high, catchment-specific variability in all the different processes affecting LW dynamics during floods. Specifically, in the LW recruitment phase, the relative floodplain (bank erosion) vs. hillslope (landslide and debris flows) contribution in mountain rivers varies substantially, as it relates to the extent of channel widening (which depends on many variables itself) but also to the hillslope-channel connectivity of LW mobilized on the slopes. As to the LW transport phase within the channel network, it appears to be widely characterized by supply-limited conditions; whereby LW transport rates (and thus volumes) are ultimately constrained by the amount of LW that is made available to the flow. Indeed, LW deposition during floods was mostly (in terms of volume) observed at artificial structures (bridges) in all the documented events. This implies that the estimation of LW recruitment and the assessment of clogging probabilities for each structure (for a flood event of given magnitude) are the most important aspects for the prediction of LW transport magnitude at any cross section along the river network. Finally, the review discusses the optimal strategies to manage LW-related hazard, which should consider riparian vegetation and in-channel dead wood as key components of river ecosystems and thus should interfere with LW (as well as with sediment) transport dynamics only for limited spatial and temporal scales.

Modeling and simulation of surfactant-polymer flooding using a new hybrid method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daripa, Prabir; Dutta, Sourav

2017-04-01

Chemical enhanced oil recovery by surfactant-polymer (SP) flooding has been studied in two space dimensions. A new global pressure for incompressible, immiscible, multicomponent two-phase porous media flow has been derived in the context of SP flooding. This has been used to formulate a system of flow equations that incorporates the effect of capillary pressure and also the effect of polymer and surfactant on viscosity, interfacial tension and relative permeabilities of the two phases. The coupled system of equations for pressure, water saturation, polymer concentration and surfactant concentration has been solved using a new hybrid method in which the elliptic global pressure equation is solved using a discontinuous finite element method and the transport equations for water saturation and concentrations of the components are solved by a Modified Method Of Characteristics (MMOC) in the multicomponent setting. Numerical simulations have been performed to validate the method, both qualitatively and quantitatively, and to evaluate the relative performance of the various flooding schemes for several different heterogeneous reservoirs.

Topography- and nightlight-based national flood risk assessment in Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbagy, Amin; Bharath, Raja; Lakhanpal, Anchit; Ceola, Serena; Montanari, Alberto; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich

2017-04-01

In Canada, flood analysis and water resource management, in general, are tasks conducted at the provincial level; therefore, unified national-scale approaches to water-related problems are uncommon. In this study, a national-scale flood risk assessment approach is proposed and developed. The study focuses on using global and national datasets available with various resolutions to create flood risk maps. First, a flood hazard map of Canada is developed using topography-based parameters derived from digital elevation models, namely, elevation above nearest drainage (EAND) and distance from nearest drainage (DFND). This flood hazard mapping method is tested on a smaller area around the city of Calgary, Alberta, against a flood inundation map produced by the city using hydraulic modelling. Second, a flood exposure map of Canada is developed using a land-use map and the satellite-based nightlight luminosity data as two exposure parameters. Third, an economic flood risk map is produced, and subsequently overlaid with population density information to produce a socioeconomic flood risk map for Canada. All three maps of hazard, exposure, and risk are classified into five classes, ranging from very low to severe. A simple way to include flood protection measures in hazard estimation is also demonstrated using the example of the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba. This could be done for the entire country if information on flood protection across Canada were available. The evaluation of the flood hazard map shows that the topography-based method adopted in this study is both practical and reliable for large-scale analysis. Sensitivity analysis regarding the resolution of the digital elevation model is needed to identify the resolution that is fine enough for reliable hazard mapping, but coarse enough for computational tractability. The nightlight data are found to be useful for exposure and risk mapping in Canada; however, uncertainty analysis should be conducted to investigate the effect of the overglow phenomenon on flood risk mapping.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

2015-08-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Mesh versus bathtub - effects of flood models on exposure analysis in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Veronika; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2016-04-01

In Switzerland, mainly two types of maps that indicate potential flood zones are available for flood exposure analyses: 1) Aquaprotect, a nationwide overview provided by the Federal Office for the Environment and 2) communal flood hazard maps available from the 26 cantons. The model used to produce Aquaprotect can be described as a bathtub approach or linear superposition method with three main parameters, namely the horizontal and vertical distance of a point to water features and the size of the river sub-basin. Whereas the determination of flood zones in Aquaprotect is based on a uniform, nationwide model, the communal flood hazard maps are less homogenous, as they have been elaborated either at communal or cantonal levels. Yet their basic content (i.e. indication of potential flood zones for three recurrence periods, with differentiation of at least three inundation depths) is described in national directives and the vast majority of communal flood hazard maps are based on 2D inundation simulations using meshes. Apart from the methodical differences between Aquaprotect and the communal flood hazard maps (and among different communal flood hazard maps), all of these maps include a layer with a similar recurrence period (i.e. Aquaprotect 250 years, flood hazard maps 300 years) beyond the intended protection level of installed structural systems. In our study, we compare the resulting exposure by overlaying the two types of flood maps with a complete, harmonized, and nationwide dataset of building polygons. We assess the different exposure at the national level, and also consider differences among the 26 cantons and the six biogeographically unique regions, respectively. It was observed that while the nationwide exposure rates for both types of flood maps are similar, the differences within certain cantons and biogeographical regions are remarkable. We conclude that flood maps based on bathtub models are appropriate for assessments at national levels, while maps based on 2D simulations are preferable at sub-national levels.

Flood Frequency Curves - Use of information on the likelihood of extreme floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faber, B.

2011-12-01

Investment in the infrastructure that reduces flood risk for flood-prone communities must incorporate information on the magnitude and frequency of flooding in that area. Traditionally, that information has been a probability distribution of annual maximum streamflows developed from the historical gaged record at a stream site. Practice in the United States fits a Log-Pearson type3 distribution to the annual maximum flows of an unimpaired streamflow record, using the method of moments to estimate distribution parameters. The procedure makes the assumptions that annual peak streamflow events are (1) independent, (2) identically distributed, and (3) form a representative sample of the overall probability distribution. Each of these assumptions can be challenged. We rarely have enough data to form a representative sample, and therefore must compute and display the uncertainty in the estimated flood distribution. But, is there a wet/dry cycle that makes precipitation less than independent between successive years? Are the peak flows caused by different types of events from different statistical populations? How does the watershed or climate changing over time (non-stationarity) affect the probability distribution floods? Potential approaches to avoid these assumptions vary from estimating trend and shift and removing them from early data (and so forming a homogeneous data set), to methods that estimate statistical parameters that vary with time. A further issue in estimating a probability distribution of flood magnitude (the flood frequency curve) is whether a purely statistical approach can accurately capture the range and frequency of floods that are of interest. A meteorologically-based analysis produces "probable maximum precipitation" (PMP) and subsequently a "probable maximum flood" (PMF) that attempts to describe an upper bound on flood magnitude in a particular watershed. This analysis can help constrain the upper tail of the probability distribution, well beyond the range of gaged data or even historical or paleo-flood data, which can be very important in risk analyses performed for flood risk management and dam and levee safety studies.

Estimated value of insurance premium due to Citarum River flood by using Bayesian method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Aisah, I.; Tampubolon, Y. R. H.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.; Subiyanto; Sidi, P.

2018-03-01

Citarum river flood in South Bandung, West Java Indonesia, often happens every year. It causes property damage, producing economic loss. The risk of loss can be mitigated by following the flood insurance program. In this paper, we discussed about the estimated value of insurance premiums due to Citarum river flood by Bayesian method. It is assumed that the risk data for flood losses follows the Pareto distribution with the right fat-tail. The estimation of distribution model parameters is done by using Bayesian method. First, parameter estimation is done with assumption that prior comes from Gamma distribution family, while observation data follow Pareto distribution. Second, flood loss data is simulated based on the probability of damage in each flood affected area. The result of the analysis shows that the estimated premium value of insurance based on pure premium principle is as follows: for the loss value of IDR 629.65 million of premium IDR 338.63 million; for a loss of IDR 584.30 million of its premium IDR 314.24 million; and the loss value of IDR 574.53 million of its premium IDR 308.95 million. The premium value estimator can be used as neither a reference in the decision of reasonable premium determination, so as not to incriminate the insured, nor it result in loss of the insurer.

'System-Risk' Flood Task Force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Ridder, Nina; Tavares da Costa, Ricardo; Diederen, Dirk; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Current scientific methods and engineering practice in flood risk assessment do not consider the full complexity of flood risk systems. Fundamental spatio-temporal dependencies, interactions and feedbacks need to be addressed to comprehensively quantify the effects of measures at various levels, ranging from local technical to high-level policy options. As each flood is unique, each event offers an unparalleled opportunity to collect data and to gain insights into system's behavior under extreme conditions potentially revealing exceptional circumstances, unexpected failures and cascading effects, and thus a chance to learn and to improve methods and models. To make use of this the Marie-Skłodowska-Curie European Training Network 'System-Risk' (www.system-risk.eu) establishes a Flood Task Force (FTF) that aims to learn about successful practical approaches, but also potential pitfalls and failures in the management of real flood events. The FTF consists of an interdisciplinary group of researchers who will apply in situ their latest methods and knowledge of e.g. how the event developed, how the risk management responded, and what the consequences were. This multi-layered perspective is intended to deepen the understanding of the complexity of flood risk systems as for instance in terms of interactions between hazard, the natural and the built environment, societal institutions and coping capacities. This contribution gives an overview of the conceptual approach to the System-Risk FTF.

Self-Organized Link State Aware Routing for Multiple Mobile Agents in Wireless Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oda, Akihiro; Nishi, Hiroaki

Recently, the importance of data sharing structures in autonomous distributed networks has been increasing. A wireless sensor network is used for managing distributed data. This type of distributed network requires effective information exchanging methods for data sharing. To reduce the traffic of broadcasted messages, reduction of the amount of redundant information is indispensable. In order to reduce packet loss in mobile ad-hoc networks, QoS-sensitive routing algorithm have been frequently discussed. The topology of a wireless network is likely to change frequently according to the movement of mobile nodes, radio disturbance, or fading due to the continuous changes in the environment. Therefore, a packet routing algorithm should guarantee QoS by using some quality indicators of the wireless network. In this paper, a novel information exchanging algorithm developed using a hash function and a Boolean operation is proposed. This algorithm achieves efficient information exchanges by reducing the overhead of broadcasting messages, and it can guarantee QoS in a wireless network environment. It can be applied to a routing algorithm in a mobile ad-hoc network. In the proposed routing algorithm, a routing table is constructed by using the received signal strength indicator (RSSI), and the neighborhood information is periodically broadcasted depending on this table. The proposed hash-based routing entry management by using an extended MAC address can eliminate the overhead of message flooding. An analysis of the collision of hash values contributes to the determination of the length of the hash values, which is minimally required. Based on the verification of a mathematical theory, an optimum hash function for determining the length of hash values can be given. Simulations are carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and to validate the theory in a general wireless network routing algorithm.

Premature Mobility of Boulders in Constructed Step-pool River Structures in the Carmel River, CA: The Role of Fish-centric Design Constraints, and Flow on Structural Stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, D. P.; Chow, K.; Luna, L.

2017-12-01

The 32 m tall San Clemente Dam (Carmel River, CA) was removed in 2015 to eliminate seismic risk and to improve fish passage for all life stages of steelhead (O. mykiss). Reservoir sediment was sequestered in place, rather than released, and a new 1000 m long channel/floodplain system was constructed to circumvent the stored sediment. The channel comprised a 250 m long, meandering low-gradient reach and a 750 m reach with alternating step-pool sections, plane beds, and resting pools. The floodprone surfaces were compacted, wrapped in geotechnical fabric and vegetated. This study analyzes the geomorphic evolution of the new channel system during its first two years of service based upon detailed field inspection, SfM photogrammetry, orthophoto analysis, and 2d hydraulic modeling. A significant proportion of the step-pool structures experienced premature mobility and several reaches of engineered stream banks were eroded in the first year. Individual, six-tonne boulders were mobilized despite experiencing less than the 3 yr flow. The channel and floodplain were fully repaired following the first year. Strong flows (two 10-yr floods and a 30-yr flood) during the second year catastrophically altered the constructed channel and floodplain. While the low-gradient reach remained intact, each of the original step-pool structures was either completely mobilized and destroyed, buried by gravel, or bypassed by the subsequent channel. Despite the overall structural failure of the constructed channel, the new channel does not block steelhead migration, and can be serendipitously considered an ecological success. Step-pool design was constrained by a fish-centric requirement that steps be 1 ft tall or less. Some constructed "resting pools" filled rather than transport sediment. Using fish-centric constraints in the design, rather than strictly fluvial geomorphic principles may have contributed to early failure of the step-pool structures and other parts of the system.

Rapid Offline-Online Post-Disaster Landslide Mapping Tool: A case study from Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Derron, Marc-Henri; Devkota, Sanjaya

2016-04-01

One of the crucial components of post disaster management is the efficient mapping of impacted areas. Here we present a tool designed to map landslides and affected objects after the earthquakes of 2015 in Nepal as well as for intense rainfall impact. Because internet is not available in many rural areas of Nepal, we developed an offline-online prototype based on Open-Source WebGIS technologies to make data on hazard impacts, including damaged infrastructure, landslides or flooding events available to authorities and the general public. This mobile application was designed as a low-cost, rapid and participatory method for recording impacts from hazard events. It is possible to record such events offline and upload them through a server, where internet connection is available. This application allows user authentication, image capturing, and information collation such as geolocation, event description, interactive mapping and finally storing all the data in the server for further analysis and visualisation. This application can be accessed by a mobile phone (Android) or a tablet as a hybrid version for both offline and online versions. The offline version has an interactive-offline map function which allows users to upload satellites image in order to improve ground truthing interpretation. After geolocation, the user can start mapping and then save recorded data into Geojson-TXT files that can be easily uploaded to the server whenever internet is available. This prototype was tested specifically for a rapid assessment of landslides and relevant land use characteristics such as roads, forest area, rivers in the Phewa Lake watershed near Pokhara, Nepal where a large number landslides were activated or reactivated after the 2015 monsoon season. More than 60 landslides were recorded during two days of field trip. Besides, it is possible to use this application for any other kind of hazard event like flood, avalanche, etc. Keywords: Offline, Online, Open source, WebGIS, Android, Post-Disaster, Landslide mapping

Flood inundation extent mapping based on block compressed tracing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Dingtao; Rui, Yikang; Wang, Jiechen; Zhang, Yu; Cheng, Liang

2015-07-01

Flood inundation extent, depth, and duration are important factors affecting flood hazard evaluation. At present, flood inundation analysis is based mainly on a seeded region-growing algorithm, which is an inefficient process because it requires excessive recursive computations and it is incapable of processing massive datasets. To address this problem, we propose a block compressed tracing algorithm for mapping the flood inundation extent, which reads the DEM data in blocks before transferring them to raster compression storage. This allows a smaller computer memory to process a larger amount of data, which solves the problem of the regular seeded region-growing algorithm. In addition, the use of a raster boundary tracing technique allows the algorithm to avoid the time-consuming computations required by the seeded region-growing. Finally, we conduct a comparative evaluation in the Chin-sha River basin, results show that the proposed method solves the problem of flood inundation extent mapping based on massive DEM datasets with higher computational efficiency than the original method, which makes it suitable for practical applications.

Spatiotemporal Detection of Unusual Human Population Behavior Using Mobile Phone Data

PubMed Central

Dobra, Adrian; Williams, Nathalie E.; Eagle, Nathan

2015-01-01

With the aim to contribute to humanitarian response to disasters and violent events, scientists have proposed the development of analytical tools that could identify emergency events in real-time, using mobile phone data. The assumption is that dramatic and discrete changes in behavior, measured with mobile phone data, will indicate extreme events. In this study, we propose an efficient system for spatiotemporal detection of behavioral anomalies from mobile phone data and compare sites with behavioral anomalies to an extensive database of emergency and non-emergency events in Rwanda. Our methodology successfully captures anomalous behavioral patterns associated with a broad range of events, from religious and official holidays to earthquakes, floods, violence against civilians and protests. Our results suggest that human behavioral responses to extreme events are complex and multi-dimensional, including extreme increases and decreases in both calling and movement behaviors. We also find significant temporal and spatial variance in responses to extreme events. Our behavioral anomaly detection system and extensive discussion of results are a significant contribution to the long-term project of creating an effective real-time event detection system with mobile phone data and we discuss the implications of our findings for future research to this end. PMID:25806954

Application of satellite radar altimetry for near-real time monitoring of floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.; Calmant, S.; Shum, C.; Kim, J.; Huang, Z.; Bettadpur, S. V.; Alsdorf, D. E.

2011-12-01

According to the 2004 UNESCO World Disasters Report, it is estimated that flooding affected 116 million people globally, causing about 7000 deaths and leading to $7.5 billion in losses. The report also indicates that flood is the most frequently occurring disaster type among all other natural disasters. Hence, timely monitoring of changing of river, wetland and lake/reservoir levels is important to support disaster monitoring and proper response. Yet, we have surprisingly poor knowledge of the spatial and temporal dynamics of surface water discharge and storage changes globally. Although satellite radar altimetry has been successfully used to observe water height changes over rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands, there have been few studies for near-real time monitoring of floods mainly due to its limited spatial and temporal sampling of surface water elevations. In this study, we monitor flood by examining its spatial and temporal origin of the flooding and its timely propagation using multiple altimeter-river intersections over the entire hydrologic basin. We apply our method to the Amazon 2009 flood event that caused the most severe flooding in more than two decades. We also compare our results with inundated areas estimated from ALOS PALSAR ScanSAR measurements and GRACE 15-day Quick-Look (QL) gravity field data product. Our developed method would potentially enhance the capability of satellite altimeter toward near-real time monitoring of floods and mitigating their hazards.

An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Baier, W.G.

1997-01-01

This paper presents the expected moments algorithm (EMA), a simple and efficient method for incorporating historical and paleoflood information into flood frequency studies. EMA can utilize three types of at-site flood information: systematic stream gage record; information about the magnitude of historical floods; and knowledge of the number of years in the historical period when no large flood occurred. EMA employs an iterative procedure to compute method-of-moments parameter estimates. Initial parameter estimates are calculated from systematic stream gage data. These moments are then updated by including the measured historical peaks and the expected moments, given the previously estimated parameters, of the below-threshold floods from the historical period. The updated moments result in new parameter estimates, and the last two steps are repeated until the algorithm converges. Monte Carlo simulations compare EMA, Bulletin 17B's [United States Water Resources Council, 1982] historically weighted moments adjustment, and maximum likelihood estimators when fitting the three parameters of the log-Pearson type III distribution. These simulations demonstrate that EMA is more efficient than the Bulletin 17B method, and that it is nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The experiments also suggest that EMA has two advantages over MLE when dealing with the log-Pearson type III distribution: It appears that EMA estimates always exist and that they are unique, although neither result has been proven. EMA can be used with binomial or interval-censored data and with any distributional family amenable to method-of-moments estimation.

An algorithm for computing moments-based flood quantile estimates when historical flood information is available

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohn, T. A.; Lane, W. L.; Baier, W. G.

This paper presents the expected moments algorithm (EMA), a simple and efficient method for incorporating historical and paleoflood information into flood frequency studies. EMA can utilize three types of at-site flood information: systematic stream gage record; information about the magnitude of historical floods; and knowledge of the number of years in the historical period when no large flood occurred. EMA employs an iterative procedure to compute method-of-moments parameter estimates. Initial parameter estimates are calculated from systematic stream gage data. These moments are then updated by including the measured historical peaks and the expected moments, given the previously estimated parameters, of the below-threshold floods from the historical period. The updated moments result in new parameter estimates, and the last two steps are repeated until the algorithm converges. Monte Carlo simulations compare EMA, Bulletin 17B's [United States Water Resources Council, 1982] historically weighted moments adjustment, and maximum likelihood estimators when fitting the three parameters of the log-Pearson type III distribution. These simulations demonstrate that EMA is more efficient than the Bulletin 17B method, and that it is nearly as efficient as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The experiments also suggest that EMA has two advantages over MLE when dealing with the log-Pearson type III distribution: It appears that EMA estimates always exist and that they are unique, although neither result has been proven. EMA can be used with binomial or interval-censored data and with any distributional family amenable to method-of-moments estimation.

Forecasting snowmelt flooding over Britain using the Grid-to-Grid model: a review and assessment of methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Seonaid R. A.; Moore, Robert J.; Cole, Steven J.; Wells, Steven C.

2017-04-01

In many regions of high annual snowfall, snowmelt modelling can prove to be a vital component of operational flood forecasting and warning systems. Although Britain as a whole does not experience prolonged periods of lying snow, with the exception of the Scottish Highlands, the inclusion of snowmelt modelling can still have a significant impact on the skill of flood forecasts. Countrywide operational flood forecasts over Britain are produced using the national Grid-to-Grid (G2G) distributed hydrological model. For Scotland, snowmelt is included in these forecasts through a G2G snow hydrology module involving temperature-based snowfall/rainfall partitioning and functions for temperature-excess snowmelt, snowpack storage and drainage. Over England and Wales, the contribution of snowmelt is included by pre-processing the precipitation prior to input into G2G. This removes snowfall diagnosed from weather model outputs and adds snowmelt from an energy budget land surface scheme to form an effective liquid water gridded input to G2G. To review the operational options for including snowmelt modelling in G2G over Britain, a project was commissioned by the Environment Agency through the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) for England and Wales and in partnership with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and Natural Resources Wales (NRW). Results obtained from this snowmelt review project will be reported on here. The operational methods used by the FFC and SEPA are compared on past snowmelt floods, alongside new alternative methods of treating snowmelt. Both case study and longer-term analyses are considered, covering periods selected from the winters 2009-2010, 2012-2013, 2013-2014 and 2014-2015. Over Scotland, both of the snowmelt methods used operationally by FFC and SEPA provided a clear improvement to the river flow simulations. Over England and Wales, fewer and less significant snowfall events occurred, leading to less distinction in the results between the methods. It is noted that, for all methods considered, large uncertainties remain in flood forecasts influenced by snowmelt. Understanding and quantifying these uncertainties should lead to more informed flood forecasts and associated guidance information.

The role of interactions along the flood process chain and implications for risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Apel, Heiko; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Guse, Björn; Kreibich, Heidi; Lüdtke, Stefan; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

2017-04-01

Floods with their manifold characteristics are shaped by various processes along the flood process chain - from triggering meteorological extremes through catchment and river network process down to impacts on societies. In flood risk systems numerous interactions and feedbacks along the process chain may occur which finally shape spatio-temporal flood patterns and determine the ultimate risk. In this talk, we review some important interactions in the atmosphere-catchment, river-dike-floodplain and vulnerability compartments of the flood risk system. We highlight the importance of spatial interactions for flood hazard and risk assessment. For instance, the role of spatial rainfall structure or wave superposition in river networks is elucidated with selected case studies. In conclusion, we show the limits of current methods in assessment of large-scale flooding and outline the approach to more comprehensive risk assessment based on our regional flood risk model (RFM) for Germany.

Methods for Estimating Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in Rural Basins in the Southeastern United States: South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Gotvald, Anthony J.; Weaver, J. Curtis

2009-01-01

For more than 50 years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations that can be used to estimate flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. Flood magnitude relates to the volume of flow that occurs over some period of time and usually is presented in cubic feet per second. Flood frequency relates to the probability of occurrence of a flood; that is, on average, what is the likelihood that a flood with a specified magnitude will occur in any given year (1 percent chance, 10 percent chance, 50 percent chance, and so on). Such flood estimates are needed for the efficient design of bridges, highway embankments, levees, and other structures near streams. In addition, these estimates are needed for the effective planning and management of land and water resources, to protect lives and property in flood-prone areas, and to determine flood-insurance rates.

Extension of classical hydrological risk analysis to non-stationary conditions due to climate change - application to the Fulda catchment, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, G.; Koch, M.

2010-12-01

An important aspect in water resources and hydrological engineering is the assessment of hydrological risk, due to the occurrence of extreme events, e.g. droughts or floods. When dealing with the latter - as is the focus here - the classical methods of flood frequency analysis (FFA) are usually being used for the proper dimensioning of a hydraulic structure, for the purpose of bringing down the flood risk to an acceptable level. FFA is based on extreme value statistics theory. Despite the progress of methods in this scientific branch, the development, decision, and fitting of an appropriate distribution function stills remains a challenge, particularly, when certain underlying assumptions of the theory are not met in real applications. This is, for example, the case when the stationarity-condition for a random flood time series is not satisfied anymore, as could be the situation when long-term hydrological impacts of future climate change are to be considered. The objective here is to verify the applicability of classical (stationary) FFA to predicted flood time series in the Fulda catchment in central Germany, as they may occur in the wake of climate change during the 21st century. These discharge time series at the outlet of the Fulda basin have been simulated with a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) that is forced by predicted climate variables of a regional climate model for Germany (REMO). From the simulated future daily time series, annual maximum (extremes) values are computed and analyzed for the purpose of risk evaluation. Although the 21st century estimated extreme flood series of the Fulda river turn out to be only mildly non-stationary, alleviating the need for further action and concern at the first sight, the more detailed analysis of the risk, as quantified, for example, by the return period, shows non-negligent differences in the calculated risk levels. This could be verified by employing a new method, the so-called flood series maximum analysis (FSMA) method, which consists in the stochastic simulation of numerous trajectories of a stochastic process with a given GEV-distribution over a certain length of time (> larger than a desired return period). Then the maximum value for each trajectory is computed, all of which are then used to determine the empirical distribution of this maximum series. Through graphical inversion of this distribution function the size of the design flood for a given risk (quantile) and given life duration can be inferred. The results of numerous simulations show that for stationary flood series, the new FSMA method results, expectedly, in nearly identical risk values as the classical FFA approach. However, once the flood time series becomes slightly non-stationary - for reasons as discussed - and regardless of whether the trend is increasing or decreasing, large differences in the computed risk values for a given design flood occur. Or in other word, for the same risk, the new FSMA method would lead to different values in the design flood for a hydraulic structure than the classical FFA method. This, in turn, could lead to some cost savings in the realization of a hydraulic project.

Technique for estimating depth of floods in Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamble, C.R.

1983-01-01

Estimates of flood depths are needed for design of roadways across flood plains and for other types of construction along streams. Equations for estimating flood depths in Tennessee were derived using data for 150 gaging stations. The equations are based on drainage basin size and can be used to estimate depths of the 10-year and 100-year floods for four hydrologic areas. A method also was developed for estimating depth of floods having recurrence intervals between 10 and 100 years. Standard errors range from 22 to 30 percent for the 10-year depth equations and from 23 to 30 percent for the 100-year depth equations. (USGS)

Virtual reality in urban water management: communicating urban flooding with particle-based CFD simulations.

PubMed

Winkler, Daniel; Zischg, Jonatan; Rauch, Wolfgang

2018-01-01

For communicating urban flood risk to authorities and the public, a realistic three-dimensional visual display is frequently more suitable than detailed flood maps. Virtual reality could also serve to plan short-term flooding interventions. We introduce here an alternative approach for simulating three-dimensional flooding dynamics in large- and small-scale urban scenes by reaching out to computer graphics. This approach, denoted 'particle in cell', is a particle-based CFD method that is used to predict physically plausible results instead of accurate flow dynamics. We exemplify the approach for the real flooding event in July 2016 in Innsbruck.

Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

2013-04-01

Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged sites or estimated extremes at ungauged sites in the considered region, is an efficient way to reduce uncertainties in flood frequency studies.

Method of improving heterogeneous oil reservoir polymer flooding effect by positively-charged gel profile control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Ling; Xia, Huifen

2018-01-01

The project of polymer flooding has achieved great success in Daqing oilfield, and the main oil reservoir recovery can be improved by more than 15%. But, for some strong oil reservoir heterogeneity carrying out polymer flooding, polymer solution will be inefficient and invalid loop problem in the high permeability layer, then cause the larger polymer volume, and a significant reduction in the polymer flooding efficiency. Aiming at this problem, it is studied the method that improves heterogeneous oil reservoir polymer flooding effect by positively-charged gel profile control. The research results show that the polymer physical and chemical reaction of positively-charged gel with the residual polymer in high permeability layer can generate three-dimensional network of polymer, plugging high permeable layer, and increase injection pressure gradient, then improve the effect of polymer flooding development. Under the condition of the same dosage, positively-charged gel profile control can improve the polymer flooding recovery factor by 2.3∼3.8 percentage points. Under the condition of the same polymer flooding recovery factor increase value, after positively-charged gel profile control, it can reduce the polymer volume by 50 %. Applying mechanism of positively-charged gel profile control technology is feasible, cost savings, simple construction, and no environmental pollution, therefore has good application prospect.

An approach for flood monitoring by the combined use of Landsat 8 optical imagery and COSMO-SkyMed radar imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Xiaohua; Luo, Xin; Liu, Shuguang; Xie, Huan; Chao, Wei; Liu, Shuang; Liu, Shijie; Makhinov, A. N.; Makhinova, A. F.; Jiang, Yuying

2018-02-01

Remote sensing techniques offer potential for effective flood detection with the advantages of low-cost, large-scale, and real-time surface observations. The easily accessible data sources of optical remote sensing imagery provide abundant spectral information for accurate surface water body extraction, and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems represent a powerful tool for flood monitoring because of their all-weather capability. This paper introduces a new approach for flood monitoring by the combined use of both Landsat 8 optical imagery and COSMO-SkyMed radar imagery. Specifically, the proposed method applies support vector machine and the active contour without edges model for water extent determination in the periods before and during the flood, respectively. A map difference method is used for the flood inundation analysis. The proposed approach is particularly suitable for large-scale flood monitoring, and it was tested on a serious flood that occurred in northeastern China in August 2013, which caused immense loss of human lives and properties. High overall accuracies of 97.46% for the optical imagery and 93.70% for the radar imagery are achieved by the use of the techniques presented in this study. The results show that about 12% of the whole study area was inundated, corresponding to 5466 km2 of land surface.

Urban Flood Prevention and Early Warning System in Jinan City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Shiyuan; Li, Qingguo

2018-06-01

The system construction of urban flood control and disaster reduction in China is facing pressure and challenge from new urban water disaster. Under the circumstances that it is difficult to build high standards of flood protection engineering measures in urban areas, it is particularly important to carry out urban flood early warning. In Jinan City, a representative inland area, based on the index system of early warning of flood in Jinan urban area, the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation was adopted to evaluate the level of early warning. Based on the cumulative rainfall of 3 hours, the CAflood simulation results based on cellular automaton model of urban flooding were used as evaluation indexes to realize the accuracy and integration of urban flood control early warning.

Updating flood maps efficiently using existing hydraulic models, very-high-accuracy elevation data, and a geographic information system; a pilot study on the Nisqually River, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Joseph L.; Haluska, Tana L.; Kresch, David L.

2001-01-01

A method of updating flood inundation maps at a fraction of the expense of using traditional methods was piloted in Washington State as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Urban Geologic and Hydrologic Hazards Initiative. Large savings in expense may be achieved by building upon previous Flood Insurance Studies and automating the process of flood delineation with a Geographic Information System (GIS); increases in accuracy and detail result from the use of very-high-accuracy elevation data and automated delineation; and the resulting digital data sets contain valuable ancillary information such as flood depth, as well as greatly facilitating map storage and utility. The method consists of creating stage-discharge relations from the archived output of the existing hydraulic model, using these relations to create updated flood stages for recalculated flood discharges, and using a GIS to automate the map generation process. Many of the effective flood maps were created in the late 1970?s and early 1980?s, and suffer from a number of well recognized deficiencies such as out-of-date or inaccurate estimates of discharges for selected recurrence intervals, changes in basin characteristics, and relatively low quality elevation data used for flood delineation. FEMA estimates that 45 percent of effective maps are over 10 years old (FEMA, 1997). Consequently, Congress has mandated the updating and periodic review of existing maps, which have cost the Nation almost 3 billion (1997) dollars. The need to update maps and the cost of doing so were the primary motivations for piloting a more cost-effective and efficient updating method. New technologies such as Geographic Information Systems and LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) elevation mapping are key to improving the efficiency of flood map updating, but they also improve the accuracy, detail, and usefulness of the resulting digital flood maps. GISs produce digital maps without manual estimation of inundated areas between cross sections, and can generate working maps across a broad range of scales, for any selected area, and overlayed with easily updated cultural features. Local governments are aggressively collecting very-high-accuracy elevation data for numerous reasons; this not only lowers the cost and increases accuracy of flood maps, but also inherently boosts the level of community involvement in the mapping process. These elevation data are also ideal for hydraulic modeling, should an existing model be judged inadequate.

Cascade reservoir flood control operation based on risk grading and warning in the Upper Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xuejiao, M.; Chang, J.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

Flood risk reduction with non-engineering measures has become the main idea for flood management. It is more effective for flood risk management to take various non-engineering measures. In this paper, a flood control operation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River was proposed to lower the flood risk of the water system with multi-reservoir by combining the reservoir flood control operation (RFCO) and flood early warning together. Specifically, a discharge control chart was employed to build the joint RFCO simulation model for cascade reservoirs in the Upper Yellow River. And entropy-weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to establish a multi-factorial risk assessment model for flood warning grade. Furthermore, after determining the implementing mode of countermeasures with future inflow, an intelligent optimization algorithm was used to solve the optimization model for applicable water release scheme. In addition, another model without any countermeasure was set to be a comparative experiment. The results show that the model developed in this paper can further decrease the flood risk of water system with cascade reservoirs. It provides a new approach to flood risk management by coupling flood control operation and flood early warning of cascade reservoirs.

Introduction of the Mobile Platform for the Meteorological Observations in Seoul Metropolitan City of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, K. T.; Lee, S.; Kang, M.; Lee, G.

2016-12-01

Traffic accidents due to adverse weather such as fog, heavy rainfall, flooding and road surface freezing have been increasing in Korea. To reduce damages caused by the severe weather on the road, a forecast service of combined real-time road-wise weather and the traffic situation is required. Conventional stationary meteorological observations in sparse location system are limited to observe the detailed road environment. For this reason, a mobile meteorological observation platform has been coupled in Weather Information Service Engine (WISE) which is the prototype of urban-scale high resolution weather prediction system in Seoul metropolitan area of Korea in early August 2016. The instruments onboard are designed to measure 15 meteorological parameters; pressure, temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, up/down net radiation, up/down longwave radiation, up/down shortwave radiation, road surface condition, friction coefficient, water depth, wind direction and speed. The observations from mobile platform show a distinctive advantage of data collection in need for road conditions and inputs for the numerical forecast model. In this study, we introduce and examine the feasibility of mobile observations in urban weather prediction and applications.

Alternative Opportunistic Alert Diffusion to Support Infrastructure Failure during Disasters

PubMed Central

Mezghani, Farouk; Mitton, Nathalie

2017-01-01

Opportunistic communications present a promising solution for disaster network recovery in emergency situations such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods, where infrastructure might be destroyed. Some recent works in the literature have proposed opportunistic-based disaster recovery solutions, but they have omitted the consideration of mobile devices that come with different network technologies and various initial energy levels. This work presents COPE, an energy-aware Cooperative OPportunistic alErt diffusion scheme for trapped survivors to use during disaster scenarios to report their position and ease their rescue operation. It aims to maintain mobile devices functional for as long as possible for maximum network coverage until reaching proximate rescuers. COPE deals with mobile devices that come with an assortment of networks and aims to perform systematic network interface selection. Furthermore, it considers mobile devices with various energy levels and allows low-energy nodes to hold their charge for longer time with the support of high-energy nodes. A proof-of-concept implementation has been performed to study the doability and efficiency of COPE, and to highlight the lessons learned. PMID:29039770

Managing ecological drought and flood within a nature-based approach. Reality or illusion?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, Rares; Finger, David; Stolte, Jannes

2017-04-01

Water hazards events, emphasized by an improperly implemented water management, may lead to ecological degradation of ecosystems. Traditional water management has generally sought to dampen the natural variability of water flows in different types of ecosystems to attain steady and dependable water supplies for domestic and industrial uses, irrigation, navigation, and hydropower, and to moderate extreme water conditions such as floods and droughts. Ecological drought can be defined as a prolonged and widespread deficit in available water supplies — including changes in natural and managed hydrology — that create multiple stresses across ecosystems, becomes a critical concern among researchers being a phenomenon much more complex than the other types of drought and requesting a specific approach. The impact of drought on ecosystem services lead to the necessity of identifying and implementing eco-reclamation measures which can generate better ecological answers to droughts. Ecological flood is the type of flood analyzed in full consideration with ecological issues, in the analyze process being approached 4 key aspects: connectivity of water system, landscapes of river and lakes, mobility of water bodies, and safety of flood control. As a consequence, both ecological drought and ecological flood represents high challenges for ecological sustainable water management in the process of identifying structural and non-structural measures for covering human demands without causing affected ecosystems to degrade or simplify. An ecological flood and drought control system will combine both the needs of the ecosystems as well as and flood and drought control measures. The components ecosystems' natural flow regime defined by magnitude, frequency, duration and peak timing (high or low flows) interact to maintain the ecosystem productivity. This productivity can be impaired by altered flow regimes generally due to structural measures designed to control flooding. However, from an ecological perspective, floods are not disasters in the sense that human society typically views them. Considering all previous aspects, it is clear that events like floods and droughts can't be avoided, but the hydrological extremes related to these events can be sustainable managed using a series of actions based on two inter-connected approaches: prevention approach and post-event management approach. The main objective remains the necessity of limiting the consequences of water hazards on socio-economic sectors but also the need of quickly and sustainable recovering after an event like this. However, the question still remains valid: Ecological flood and ecological drought can be managed through a nature-based approach? This paper will focus on a theoretical analysis of these "ecological" hydro-meteorological events and will debate a possible nature-based approach for their sustainable management.

Large wood mobility processes in low-order Chilean river channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iroumé, Andrés; Mao, Luca; Andreoli, Andrea; Ulloa, Héctor; Ardiles, María Paz

2015-01-01

Large wood (LW) mobility was studied over several time periods in channel segments of four low-order mountain streams, southern Chile. All wood pieces found within the bankfull channels and on the streambanks extending into the channel with dimensions more than 10 cm in diameter and 1 m in length were measured and their position was referenced. Thirty six percent of measured wood pieces were tagged to investigate log mobility. All segments were first surveyed in summer and then after consecutive rainy winter periods. Annual LW mobility ranged between 0 and 28%. Eighty-four percent of the moved LW had diameters ≤ 40 cm and 92% had lengths ≤ 7 m. Large wood mobility was higher in periods when maximum water level (Hmax) exceeded channel bankfull depth (HBk) than in periods with flows less than HBk, but the difference was not statistically significant. Dimensions of moved LW showed no significant differences between periods with flows exceeding and with flows less than bankfull stage. Statistically significant relationships were found between annual LW mobility (%) and unit stream power (for Hmax) and Hmax/HBk. The mean diameter of transported wood pieces per period was significantly correlated with unit stream power for H15% and H50% (the level above which the flow remains for 15 and 50% of the time, respectively). These results contribute to an understanding of the complexity of LW mobilization processes in mountain streams and can be used to assess and prevent potential damage caused by LW mobilization during floods.

Long-term psychological outcomes of flood survivors of hard-hit areas of the 1998 Dongting Lake flood in China: Prevalence and risk factors

PubMed Central

Dai, Wenjie; Kaminga, Atipatsa C.; Tan, Hongzhuan; Wang, Jieru; Lai, Zhiwei; Wu, Xin; Liu, Aizhong

2017-01-01

Background Although numerous studies have indicated that exposure to natural disasters may increase survivors’ risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and anxiety, studies focusing on the long-term psychological outcomes of flood survivors are limited. Thus, this study aimed to estimate the prevalence of PTSD and anxiety among flood survivors 17 years after the 1998 Dongting Lake flood and to identify the risk factors for PTSD and anxiety. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in December 2015, 17 years after the 1998 Dongting Lake flood. Survivors in hard-hit areas of the flood disaster were enrolled in this study using a stratified, systematic random sampling method. Well qualified investigators conducted face-to-face interviews with participants using the PTSD Checklist-Civilian version, the Zung Self-Rating Anxiety Scale, the Chinese version of the Social Support Rating Scale and the Revised Eysenck Personality Questionnaire-Short Scale for Chinese to assess PTSD, anxiety, social support and personality traits, respectively. Logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with PTSD and anxiety. Results A total of 325 participants were recruited in this study, and the prevalence of PTSD and anxiety was 9.5% and 9.2%, respectively. Multivariable logistic regression analyses indicated that female sex, experiencing at least three flood-related stressors, having a low level of social support, and having the trait of emotional instability were risk factors for long-term adverse psychological outcomes among flood survivors after the disaster. Conclusions PTSD and anxiety were common long-term adverse psychological outcomes among flood survivors. Early and effective psychological interventions for flood survivors are needed to prevent the development of PTSD and anxiety in the long run after a flood, especially for individuals who are female, experience at least three flood-related stressors, have a low level of social support and have the trait of emotional instability. PMID:28170427

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyaupane, Narayan; Parajuli, Ranjan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most severe and costlier natural hazard in US. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The flood plain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural area in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on a HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows extreme increase in future design flood. The future design flood could be more than the historic 500yr flood. At the same time, the extent of flooding could go beyond the historic flood of 0.2% annual probability. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer and stake holders.

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems. Chapter 6; [Case Study: 2011 Flooding in Southeast Asia

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahamed, Aakash; Bolten, John; Doyle, Colin; Fayne, Jessica

2016-01-01

Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data, researchers can develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts resulting from flood disaster events.

Flood Risk Assessments of Architectural Heritage - Case of Changgyeonggung Palace

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyosang; Kim, Ji-sung; Lee, Ho-jin

2014-05-01

The risk of natural disasters such as flood and earthquake has increased due to recent extreme weather events. Therefore, the necessity of the risk management system to protect architectural properties, a cultural heritage of humanity, from natural disasters has been consistently felt. The solutions for managing flood risk focusing on architectural heritage are suggested and applied to protect Changgyeonggung Palace, a major palace heritage in Seoul. After the probable rainfall scenario for risk assessment (frequency: 100 years, 200 years, and 500 years) and the scenario of a probable maximum precipitation (PMP) are made and a previous rainfall event (from July 26th to 28th in 2011) is identified, they are used for the model (HEC-HMS, SWMM) to assess flood risk of certain areas covering Changgyeonggung Palace to do flood amount. Such flood amount makes it possible to identify inundation risks based on GIS models to assess flood risk of individual architectural heritage. The results of assessing such risk are used to establish the disaster risk management system that managers of architectural properties can utilize. According to the results of assessing flood risk of Changgyeonggung Palace, inundation occurs near outlets of Changgyeonggung Palace and sections of river channel for all scenarios of flood risk but the inundation risk of major architectural properties was estimated low. The methods for assessing flood risk of architectural heritage proposed in this study and the risk management system for Changgyeonggung Palace using the methods show thorough solutions for flood risk management and the possibility of using the solutions seems high. A comprehensive management system for architectural heritage will be established in the future through the review on diverse factors for disasters.

Flood impacts on a water distribution network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

2017-12-01

Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Water distribution systems are particularly exposed, since water treatment plants are often located next to the rivers. Failure of the system leads to both direct losses, for instance damage to equipment and pipework contamination, and indirect impact, since it may lead to service disruption and thus affect populations far from the event through the functional dependencies of the network. In this work, we present an analysis of direct and indirect damages on a drinking water supply system, considering the hazard of riverine flooding as well as the exposure and vulnerability of active system components. The method is based on interweaving, through a semi-automated GIS procedure, a flood model and an EPANET-based pipe network model with a pressure-driven demand approach, which is needed when modelling water distribution networks in highly off-design conditions. Impact measures are defined and estimated so as to quantify service outage and potential pipe contamination. The method is applied to the water supply system of the city of Florence, Italy, serving approximately 380 000 inhabitants. The evaluation of flood impact on the water distribution network is carried out for different events with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to estimate their residual functionality and to simulate failure scenarios. Results show that in the worst failure scenario (no residual functionality of the lifting station and a 500-year flood), 420 km of pipework would require disinfection with an estimated cost of EUR 21 million, which is about 0.5 % of the direct flood losses evaluated for buildings and contents. Moreover, if flood impacts on the water distribution network are considered, the population affected by the flood is up to 3 times the population directly flooded.

Global coastal flood hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, Dirk; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Haag, Arjen; Verlaan, Martin; Luo, Tianyi

2017-04-01

Over 10% of the world's population lives in low-lying coastal areas (up to 10m elevation). Many of these areas are prone to flooding from tropical storm surges or extra-tropical high sea levels in combination with high tides. A 1 in 100 year extreme sea level is estimated to expose 270 million people and 13 trillion USD worth of assets to flooding. Coastal flood risk is expected to increase due to drivers such as ground subsidence, intensification of tropical and extra-tropical storms, sea level rise and socio-economic development. For better understanding of the hazard and drivers to global coastal flood risk, a globally consistent analysis of coastal flooding is required. In this contribution we present a comprehensive global coastal flood hazard mapping study. Coastal flooding is estimated using a modular inundation routine, based on a vegetation corrected SRTM elevation model and forced by extreme sea levels. Per tile, either a simple GIS inundation routine or a hydrodynamic model can be selected. The GIS inundation method projects extreme sea levels to land, taking into account physical obstructions and dampening of the surge level land inwards. For coastlines with steep slopes or where local dynamics play a minor role in flood behavior, this fast GIS method can be applied. Extreme sea levels are derived from the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Future sea level projections are based on probabilistic sea level rise for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The approach is validated against observed flood extents from ground and satellite observations. The results will be made available through the online Aqueduct Global Flood Risk Analyzer of the World Resources Institute.

A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged UK Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giani, Giulia; Woods, Ross

2017-04-01

The standard regression-based method for estimating the median annual flood in ungauged UK catchments has a high standard error (95% confidence interval is +/- a factor of 2). This is also the dominant source of uncertainty in statistical estimates of the 100-year flood. Similarly large uncertainties have been reported elsewhere. These large uncertainties make it difficult to do reliable flood design estimates for ungauged catchments. If the uncertainty could be reduced, flood protection schemes could be made significantly more cost-effective. Here we report on attempts to develop a new practical method for flood estimation in ungauged UK catchments, by making more use of knowledge about rainfall-runoff processes. Building on recent research on the seasonality of flooding, we first classify more than 1000 UK catchments into groups according to the seasonality of extreme rainfall and floods, and infer possible causal mechanisms for floods (e.g. Berghuijs et al, Geophysical Research Letters, 2016). For each group we are developing simplified rainfall-runoff-routing relationships (e.g. Viglione et al, Journal of Hydrology, 2010) which can account for spatial and temporal variability in rainfall and flood processes, as well as channel network routing effects. An initial investigation by Viglione et al suggested that the relationship between rainfall amount and flood peak could be summarised through a dimensionless response number that represents the product of the event runoff coefficient and a measure of hydrograph peakedness. Our hypothesis is that this approach is widely applicable, and can be used as the basis for flood estimation. Using subdaily and daily rainfall-runoff data for more than 1000 catchments, we identify a subset of catchments in the west of the UK where floods are generated predominantly in winter through the coincidence of heavy rain and low soil moisture deficits. Floods in these catchments can reliably be simulated with simple rainfall-runoff models, so it is reasonable to expect simple flood estimators. We will report on tests of the several components of the dimensionless response number hypothesis for these catchments.

Flood Hazard Mapping Assessment for Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdallah, Chadi; Darwich, Talal; Hamze, Mouin; Zaarour, Nathalie

2014-05-01

Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. In fact, floods are responsible for over one third of people affected by natural disasters; almost 190 million people in more than 90 countries are exposed to catastrophic floods every year. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase, therefore, flood prediction and prevention has become a necessity in many places around the globe to decrease damages caused by flooding. Available evidence hints at an increasing frequency of flooding disasters being witnessed in the last 25 years in Lebanon. The consequences of such events are tragic including annual financial losses of around 15 million dollars. In this work, a hydrologic-hydraulic modeling framework for flood hazard mapping over Lebanon covering 19 watershed was introduced. Several empirical, statistical and stochastic methods to calculate the flood magnitude and its related return periods, where rainfall and river gauge data are neither continuous nor available on a long term basis with an absence of proper river sections that under estimate flows during flood events. TRMM weather satellite information, automated drainage networks, curve numbers and other geometrical characteristics for each basin was prepared using WMS-software and then exported into HMS files to implement the hydrologic modeling (rainfall-runoff) for single designed storm of uniformly distributed depth along each basin. The obtained flow hydrographs were implemented in the hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) where relative water surface profiles are calculated and flood plains are delineated. The model was calibrated using the last flood event of January 2013, field investigation, and high resolution satellite images. Flow results proved to have an accuracy ranging between 83-87% when compared to the computed statistical and stochastic methods. Results included the generation of recurrence flood plain maps of 10, 50 & 100 years intensity maps along with flood hazard maps for each watershed. It is of utmost significance for this study to be effective that the produced flood intensity and hazard maps will be made available to decision-makers, planners and relevant community stakeholders.

The role of Natural Flood Management in managing floods in large scale basins during extreme events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; ODonnell, Greg; Nicholson, Alex; Hetherington, David

2016-04-01

There is a strong evidence database showing the negative impacts of land use intensification and soil degradation in NW European river basins on hydrological response and to flood impact downstream. However, the ability to target zones of high runoff production and the extent to which we can manage flood risk using nature-based flood management solution are less known. A move to planting more trees and having less intense farmed landscapes is part of natural flood management (NFM) solutions and these methods suggest that flood risk can be managed in alternative and more holistic ways. So what local NFM management methods should be used, where in large scale basin should they be deployed and how does flow is propagate to any point downstream? Generally, how much intervention is needed and will it compromise food production systems? If we are observing record levels of rainfall and flow, for example during Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 in the North West of England, what other flood management options are really needed to complement our traditional defences in large basins for the future? In this paper we will show examples of NFM interventions in the UK that have impacted at local scale sites. We will demonstrate the impact of interventions at local, sub-catchment (meso-scale) and finally at the large scale. These tools include observations, process based models and more generalised Flood Impact Models. Issues of synchronisation and the design level of protection will be debated. By reworking observed rainfall and discharge (runoff) for observed extreme events in the River Eden and River Tyne, during Storm Desmond, we will show how much flood protection is needed in large scale basins. The research will thus pose a number of key questions as to how floods may have to be managed in large scale basins in the future. We will seek to support a method of catchment systems engineering that holds water back across the whole landscape as a major opportunity to management water in large scale basins in the future. The broader benefits of engineering landscapes to hold water for pollution control, sediment loss and drought minimisation will also be shown.

NEON's Mobile Deployment Platform: A Resource for Community Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanclements, M.

2015-12-01

Here we provide an update on construction and validation of the NEON Mobile Deployment Platforms (MDPs) as well as a description of the infrastructure and sensors available to researchers in the future. The MDPs will provide the means to observe stochastic or spatially important events, gradients, or quantities that cannot be reliably observed using fixed location sampling (e.g. fires and floods). Due to the transient temporal and spatial nature of such events, the MDPs will be designed to accommodate rapid deployment for time periods up to ~ 1 year. Broadly, the MDPs will be comprised of infrastructure and instrumentation capable of functioning individually or in conjunction with one another to support observations of ecological change, as well as education, training and outreach.

A uniform technique for flood frequency analysis.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, W.O.

1985-01-01

This uniform technique consisted of fitting the logarithms of annual peak discharges to a Pearson Type III distribution using the method of moments. The objective was to adopt a consistent approach for the estimation of floodflow frequencies that could be used in computing average annual flood losses for project evaluation. In addition, a consistent approach was needed for defining equitable flood-hazard zones as part of the National Flood Insurance Program. -from ASCE Publications Information

An active monitoring method for flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zeqiang; Chen, Nengcheng; Du, Wenying; Gong, Jianya

2018-07-01

Timely and active detecting and monitoring of a flood event are critical for a quick response, effective decision-making and disaster reduction. To achieve the purpose, this paper proposes an active service framework for flood monitoring based on Sensor Web services and an active model for the concrete implementation of the active service framework. The framework consists of two core components-active warning and active planning. The active warning component is based on a publish-subscribe mechanism implemented by the Sensor Event Service. The active planning component employs the Sensor Planning Service to control the execution of the schemes and models and plans the model input data. The active model, called SMDSA, defines the quantitative calculation method for five elements, scheme, model, data, sensor, and auxiliary information, as well as their associations. Experimental monitoring of the Liangzi Lake flood in the summer of 2010 is conducted to test the proposed framework and model. The results show that 1) the proposed active service framework is efficient for timely and automated flood monitoring. 2) The active model, SMDSA, is a quantitative calculation method used to monitor floods from manual intervention to automatic computation. 3) As much preliminary work as possible should be done to take full advantage of the active service framework and the active model.

SIMULATION OF FLOOD HYDROGRAPHS FOR GEORGIA STREAMS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, E.J.; Armbruster, J.T.

1986-01-01

Flood hydrographs are needed for the design of many highway drainage structures and embankments. A method for simulating these flood hydrographs at urban and rural ungauged sites in Georgia is presented. The O'Donnell method was used to compute unit hydrographs from 355 flood events from 80 stations. An average unit hydrograph and an average lag time were computed for each station. These average unit hydrographs were transformed to unit hydrographs having durations of one-fourth, one-third, one-half, and three-fourths lag time and then reduced to dimensionless terms by dividing the time by lag time and the discharge by peak discharge. Hydrographs were simulated for these 355 flood events and their widths were compared with the widths of the observed hydrographs at 50 and 75 percent of peak flow. For simulating hydrographs at sites larger than 500 mi**2, the U. S. Geological Survey computer model CONROUT can be used.

A review on applications of nanotechnology in the enhanced oil recovery part B: effects of nanoparticles on flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheraghian, Goshtasp; Hendraningrat, Luky

2016-11-01

Chemical flooding is of increasing interest and importance due to high oil prices and the need to increase oil production. Research in nanotechnology in the petroleum industry is advancing rapidly, and an enormous progress in the application of nanotechnology in this area is to be expected. The nanotechnology has been widely used in several other industries, and the interest in the oil industry is increasing. Nanotechnology has the potential to profoundly change enhanced oil recovery and to improve mechanism of recovery, and it is chosen as an alternative method to unlock the remaining oil resources and applied as a new enhanced oil recovery method in last decade. This paper therefore focuses on the reviews of the application of nanotechnology in chemical flooding process in oil recovery and reviews the applications of nanomaterials for improving oil recovery that have been proposed to explain oil displacement by polymer flooding within oil reservoirs, and also this paper highlights the research advances of polymer in oil recovery. Nanochemical flooding is an immature method from an application point of view.

BRIDGING THE STRATEGIC TO OPERATIONAL GAP: AIR MOBILTY IN NATURAL DISASTER RELIEF

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Earthquake and subsequent Fukushima -Daiichi nuclear fallout crisis. The air mobility enterprise resides at the seam between the strategic and...nature of disasters . At the strategic level, there is a lack of detail to predict how best to conduct relief operations. After his experience with the... disaster can vary immensely. The needs and authorities for the DoD response to the 2010 Pakistan floods are severely different than those in the

Data Integration Framework Data Management Plan Remote Sensing Dataset

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-01

performed by the Coastal Observations and Analysis Branch (CEERD-HFA) of the Flood and Storm Protection Division (CEERD-HF), U.S. Army Engineer Research... Protection Division, Coastal Observations and Analysis Branch CESAM U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Mobile District CESAM-OP-J U.S. Army Corps of Engineers...ER D C/ CH L SR -1 6- 2 Coastal Ocean Data Systems Program Data Integration Framework Data Management Plan Remote Sensing Dataset Co

The Incidence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder After Floods: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Long; Liu, Aizhong

2015-06-01

This study analyzes the incidence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among flood victims, between different flood intensities, and between different time points after a flood. A search of several electronic literature databases was conducted to collect data on the incidence of PTSD after a flood. Loney criteria for research quality were used to evaluate the quality of selected search results. The combined incidence of PTSD was estimated using the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation method. Subgroup analyses were conducted on different trauma intensities and different time points after a flood. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of research quality. Fourteen articles were included in this meta-analysis, including a total of 40 600 flood victims; 3862 victims were diagnosed with PTSD. The combined incidence of PTSD was 15.74%. The subgroup analyses showed that the incidence of PTSD in victims who experienced severe and moderate flood intensity was higher than that in victims who experienced mild flood intensity. The incidence of PTSD was lower at 6 or more months after a flood (11.45%) than within 6 months (16.01%) of a flood. In conclusion, the incidence of PTSD among floods of different trauma intensities was statistically significant.

Improving the accuracy of flood forecasting with transpositions of ensemble NWP rainfall fields considering orographic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wansik; Nakakita, Eiichi; Kim, Sunmin; Yamaguchi, Kosei

2016-08-01

The use of meteorological ensembles to produce sets of hydrological predictions increased the capability to issue flood warnings. However, space scale of the hydrological domain is still much finer than meteorological model, and NWP models have challenges with displacement. The main objective of this study to enhance the transposition method proposed in Yu et al. (2014) and to suggest the post-processing ensemble flood forecasting method for the real-time updating and the accuracy improvement of flood forecasts that considers the separation of the orographic rainfall and the correction of misplaced rain distributions using additional ensemble information through the transposition of rain distributions. In the first step of the proposed method, ensemble forecast rainfalls from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are separated into orographic and non-orographic rainfall fields using atmospheric variables and the extraction of topographic effect. Then the non-orographic rainfall fields are examined by the transposition scheme to produce additional ensemble information and new ensemble NWP rainfall fields are calculated by recombining the transposition results of non-orographic rain fields with separated orographic rainfall fields for a generation of place-corrected ensemble information. Then, the additional ensemble information is applied into a hydrologic model for post-flood forecasting with a 6-h interval. The newly proposed method has a clear advantage to improve the accuracy of mean value of ensemble flood forecasting. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon 'Talas' of 2011 over the two catchments, which are Futatsuno (356.1 km2) and Nanairo (182.1 km2) dam catchments of Shingu river basin (2360 km2), which is located in the Kii peninsula, Japan.

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

PubMed Central

Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-01-01

Abstract This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non‐fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation. PMID:27840456

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, José Luis; Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-09-01

This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non-fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

A fuzzy Bayesian approach to flood frequency estimation with imprecise historical information.

PubMed

Salinas, José Luis; Kiss, Andrea; Viglione, Alberto; Viertl, Reinhard; Blöschl, Günter

2016-09-01

This paper presents a novel framework that links imprecision (through a fuzzy approach) and stochastic uncertainty (through a Bayesian approach) in estimating flood probabilities from historical flood information and systematic flood discharge data. The method exploits the linguistic characteristics of historical source material to construct membership functions, which may be wider or narrower, depending on the vagueness of the statements. The membership functions are either included in the prior distribution or the likelihood function to obtain a fuzzy version of the flood frequency curve. The viability of the approach is demonstrated by three case studies that differ in terms of their hydromorphological conditions (from an Alpine river with bedrock profile to a flat lowland river with extensive flood plains) and historical source material (including narratives, town and county meeting protocols, flood marks and damage accounts). The case studies are presented in order of increasing fuzziness (the Rhine at Basel, Switzerland; the Werra at Meiningen, Germany; and the Tisza at Szeged, Hungary). Incorporating imprecise historical information is found to reduce the range between the 5% and 95% Bayesian credibility bounds of the 100 year floods by 45% and 61% for the Rhine and Werra case studies, respectively. The strengths and limitations of the framework are discussed relative to alternative (non-fuzzy) methods. The fuzzy Bayesian inference framework provides a flexible methodology that fits the imprecise nature of linguistic information on historical floods as available in historical written documentation.

Historical floods reconstruction using NOAA 20CR global climate reanalysis over the last 150 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathevet, T.; Brigode, P.; Jégonday, S.; Hingray, B.; Gailhard, J.; Wilhelm, B.

2017-12-01

Since several years, climatologists are producing long reanalysis for studying the variability of global climate over the last 150 years. For hydrologists, these datasets offer interesting opportunities for reconstructing historical flood events, and thus increasing the sample size used for flood frequency analysis. In this study, a streamflow reconstruction method based on the analogy of atmospheric situations (using NOAA 20CR reanalysis) for the reconstruction of climatic series and on a rainfall-runoff model for the streamflow reconstruction has been applied over different French catchments at the daily timestep. The studied catchments have been selected because of the availability of long observed streamflow series (used for quantifying the performances of the flood reconstructions) and for their different hydro-climatological regimes. Different methodologies have been tested for the reconstruction of daily climatic series over the 1851-2014 period, using geopotential heights and additional variables available within the 20CR reanalysis (relative humidity, precipitable water, etc.). Long observed climatic series have also been used when available as a reference for the climatic reconstructions. The different reconstruction methods have been finally ranked in terms of their historical flood reconstruction performances, quantified by flood types (autumn or winter floods) and atmospheric genesis (using a weather pattern classification). The obtained results indicate that using additional 20CR variables to the geopotential heights only slightly improve the flood reconstructions, while using observed climatic series improves significantly the flood reconstruction over the different catchments.

Techniques for estimating flood hydrographs for ungaged urban watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stricker, V.A.; Sauer, V.B.

1984-01-01

The Clark Method, modified slightly was used to develop a synthetic, dimensionless hydrograph which can be used to estimate flood hydrographs for ungaged urban watersheds. Application of the technique results in a typical (average) flood hydrograph for a given peak discharge. Input necessary to apply the technique is an estimate of basin lagtime and the recurrence interval peak discharge. Equations for this purpose were obtained from a recent nationwide study on flood frequency in urban watersheds. A regression equation was developed which relates flood volumes to drainage area size, basin lagtime, and peak discharge. This equation is useful where storage of floodwater may be a part of design of flood prevention. (USGS)

Flood Scenario Simulation and Disaster Estimation of Ba-Ma Creek Watershed in Nantou County, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, S. H.; Hsu, Y. K.

2018-04-01

The present study proposed several scenario simulations of flood disaster according to the historical flood event and planning requirement in Ba-Ma Creek Watershed located in Nantou County, Taiwan. The simulations were made using the FLO-2D model, a numerical model which can compute the velocity and depth of flood on a two-dimensional terrain. Meanwhile, the calculated data were utilized to estimate the possible damage incurred by the flood disaster. The results thus obtained can serve as references for disaster prevention. Moreover, the simulated results could be employed for flood disaster estimation using the method suggested by the Water Resources Agency of Taiwan. Finally, the conclusions and perspectives are presented.

Evaluation of design flood frequency methods for Iowa streams : final report, June 2009.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

The objective of this project was to assess the predictive accuracy of flood frequency estimation for small Iowa streams based : on the Rational Method, the NRCS curve number approach, and the Iowa Runoff Chart. The evaluation was based on : comparis...

Paleohydrology of flash floods in small desert watersheds in western Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, P. Kyle; Baker, Victor R.

2001-06-01

In this study, geological, historical, and meteorological data were combined to produce a regional chronology of flood magnitude and frequency in nine small basins (7-70 km2). The chronology spans more than 1000 years and demonstrates that detailed records of flood magnitude and frequency can be compiled in arid regions with little to no conventional hydrologic information. The recent (i.e., post-1950) flood history was evaluated by comparing a 50-year series of aerial photographs with precipitation data, ages of flood-transported beer cans, anthropogenic horizons in flood sediments, postbomb 14C dates on flotsam, and anecdotal accounts. Stratigraphic analysis of paleoflood deposits extended the regional flood record in time, and associated flood magnitudes were determined by incorporating relict high-water evidence into a hydraulic model. The results reveal a general consistency among the magnitudes of the largest floods in the historical and the paleoflood records and indicate that the magnitudes and relative frequencies of actual large floods are at variance with "100-year" flood magnitudes predicted by regional flood frequency models. This suggests that the predictive equations may not be appropriate for regulatory, management, or design purposes in the absence of additional, real data on flooding. Augmenting conventional approaches to regional flood magnitude and frequency analysis with real information derived from the alternative methods described here is a viable approach to improving assessments of regional flood characteristics in sparsely gaged desert areas.

Analyzing Future Flooding under Climate Change Scenario using CMIP5 Streamflow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, Ranjan; Nyaupane, Narayan; Kalra, Ajay

2017-12-01

Flooding is a severe and costlier natural hazard. The effect of climate change has intensified the scenario in recent years. Flood prevention practice along with a proper understanding of flooding event can mitigate the risk of such hazard. The floodplain mapping is one of the technique to quantify the severity of the flooding. Carson City, which is one of the agricultural areas in the desert of Nevada has experienced peak flood in the recent year. The underlying probability distribution for the area, latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) streamflow data of Carson River were analyzed for 27 different statistical distributions. The best-fitted distribution underlying was used to forecast the 100yr flood (design flood). The data from 1950-2099 derived from 31 model and total 97 projections were used to predict the future streamflow. Delta change method is adopted to quantify the amount of future (2050-2099) flood. To determine the extent of flooding 3 scenarios (i) historic design flood, (ii) 500yr flood and (iii) future 100yr flood were routed on an HEC-RAS model, prepared using available terrain data. Some of the climate projection shows an extreme increase in future design flood. This study suggests an approach to quantify the future flood and floodplain using climate model projections. The study would provide helpful information to the facility manager, design engineer, and stakeholders.

Development of a national Flash flood warning system in France using the AIGA method: first results and main issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Demargne, Julie; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Garandeau, Léa; Janet, Bruno; Saint-Martin, Clotilde; Fouchier, Catherine

2016-04-01

Developing a national flash flood (FF) warning system is an ambitious and difficult task. On one hand it rises huge expectations from exposed populations and authorities since induced damages are considerable (ie 20 casualties in the recent October 2015 flood at the French Riviera). But on the other hand, many practical and scientific issues have to be addressed and limitations should be clearly stated. The FF warning system to be implemented by 2016 in France by the SCHAPI (French national service in charge of flood forecasting) will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). The AIGA method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km² resolution to reference flood quantiles of different return periods, at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France. Model calibration was based on ~700 hydrometric stations over the 2002-2015 period and then hourly discharges were computed at ~76 000 catchment outlets, with areas ranging from 10 to 3 500 km², over the last 19 years. This product makes it possible to calculate reference flood quantiles at each outlet. The on-going evaluation of the FF warnings is currently made at two levels: in a 'classical' way, using discharges available at the hydrometric stations, but also in a more 'exploratory' way, by comparing past flood reports and warnings issued by the system over the 76 000 catchment outlets. The interest of the last method is that it better fit the system objectives since it is designed to monitor small ungauged catchments. Javelle, P., Demargne, J., Defrance, D, .Pansu, J, .Arnaud, P. (2014). Evaluating flash-flood warnings at ungauged locations using post-event surveys: a case study with the AIGA warning system. Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 59(7), 1390-1402. doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.923970

Back analysis of Swiss flood danger map to define local flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choffet, Marc; Derron, Marc-Henri; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Leroi, Eric; Mayis, Arnaud

2010-05-01

The flood hazard maps for the entire Switzerland will be available at the end of 2011. Furthermore, the Swiss territory has been covered by aerial laser scanning (ALS) providing high resolution digital elevation model (DEM). This paper describes the development of a method for analyzing the local flood hazard based on Swiss hazard maps and HR-DEM. In their original state, Swiss hazard maps are constructed on the basis of an aggregation of information, a matrix intensity, and frequency. The degree of danger represented by the yellow, blue and red zones gives no information on the water level at each point of the territory. The developed method is based on a superposition of the danger map with the HR-DEM to determine the water level in a hazard area. To perform this method, (1) a triangulation is based on the intersection of the hazard map with the HR-DEM. It uses the limits of area where information is contrain. The hazard map perimeter and the boundaries of hazard areas give information on the widest possible overflow in case of flooding. It is also possible to associate it with a return period. (2) Based on these areas and the difference with the DEM, it is possible to calibrate the highest flood level and the extract water levels for the entire area. This analysis of existing documents opens up interesting perspectives for understanding how infrastructures are threatened by flood hazard by predicting water levels and potential damages to buildings while proposing remedial measures. Indeed, this method allows estimating the water level at each point of a building in case of flooding. It is designed to provide spatial information on water height levels; this offers a different approach of buildings in danger zones. Indeed, it is possible to discern several elements, such as areas of water accumulation involving longer flood duration, possible structural damages to buildings due to high hydrostatic pressure, determination of a local hazard, or the display of water levels in 3D.

Research on classified real-time flood forecasting framework based on K-means cluster and rough set.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Peng, Yong

2015-01-01

This research presents a new classified real-time flood forecasting framework. In this framework, historical floods are classified by a K-means cluster according to the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the time variance of precipitation intensity and other hydrological factors. Based on the classified results, a rough set is used to extract the identification rules for real-time flood forecasting. Then, the parameters of different categories within the conceptual hydrological model are calibrated using a genetic algorithm. In real-time forecasting, the corresponding category of parameters is selected for flood forecasting according to the obtained flood information. This research tests the new classified framework on Guanyinge Reservoir and compares the framework with the traditional flood forecasting method. It finds that the performance of the new classified framework is significantly better in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, the framework can be considered in a catchment with fewer historical floods.

Long-term reactions of plants and macroinvertebrates to extreme floods in floodplain grasslands.

PubMed

Ilg, Christiane; Dziock, Frank; Foeckler, Francis; Follner, Klaus; Gerisch, Michael; Glaeser, Judith; Rink, Anke; Schanowski, Arno; Scholz, Mathias; Deichner, Oskar; Henle, Klaus

2008-09-01

Extreme summertime flood events are expected to become more frequent in European rivers due to climate change. In temperate areas, where winter floods are common, extreme floods occurring in summer, a period of high physiological activity, may seriously impact floodplain ecosystems. Here we report on the effects of the 2002 extreme summer flood on flora and fauna of the riverine grasslands of the Middle Elbe (Germany), comparing pre- and post-flooding data collected by identical methods. Plants, mollusks, and carabid beetles differed considerably in their response in terms of abundance and diversity. Plants and mollusks, displaying morphological and behavioral adaptations to flooding, showed higher survival rates than the carabid beetles, the adaptation strategies of which were mainly linked to life history. Our results illustrate the complexity of responses of floodplain organisms to extreme flood events. They demonstrate that the efficiency of resistance and resilience strategies is widely dependent on the mode of adaptation.

Effects of initial saturation on properties modification and displacement of tetrachloroethene with aqueous isobutanol.

PubMed

Boyd, Glen R; Ocampo-Gómez, Ana M; Li, Minghua; Husserl, Johana

2006-11-20

Packed column experiments were conducted to study effects of initial saturation of tetrachloroethene (PCE) in the range of 1.0-14% pore volume (PV) on mobilization and downward migration of the non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) product upon contact with aqueous isobutanol ( approximately 10 vol.%). This study focused on the consequences of swelling beyond residual saturation. Columns were packed with mixtures of neat PCE, water and glass beads and waterflooded to establish a desired homogeneous residual saturation, and then flooded with aqueous isobutanol under controlled hydraulic conditions. Results showed a critical saturation of approximately 8% PV for these packed column experimental conditions. At low initial PCE saturations (<8% PV), experimental results showed reduced risk of NAPL-product migration upon contact with aqueous isobutanol. At higher initial PCE saturations (>8% PV), results showed NAPL-product mobilization and downward migration which was attributed to interfacial tension (IFT) reduction, swelling of the NAPL-product, and reduced density modification. Packed column results were compared with good agreement to theoretical predictions of NAPL-product mobilization using the total trapping number, N(T). In addition to the packed column study, preliminary batch experiments were conducted to study the effects of PCE volumetric fraction in the range of 0.5-20% on density, viscosity, and IFT modification as a function of time following contact with aqueous isobutanol ( approximately 10 vol.%). Modified NAPL-product fluid properties approached equilibrium within approximately 2 h of contact for density and viscosity. IFT reduction occurred immediately as expected. Measured fluid properties were compared with good agreement to theoretical equilibrium predictions based on UNIQUAC. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of initial DNAPL saturation, and the associated risk of downward NAPL-product migration, in applying alcohol flooding for remediation of DNAPL contaminated ground water sites.

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity II. Statistical analysis of floods in Quebec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

This paper, the second of a two-part paper, investigates the nonstationary behaviour of flood peaks in Quebec (Canada) by analyzing the annual maximum flow series (AMS) available for the common 1966-2001 period from a network of 32 watersheds. Temporal trends in the mean of flood peaks were examined by the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. The significance of the detected trends over the whole province is also assessed by a bootstrap test that preserves the cross-correlation structure of the network. Furthermore, The LM-NS method (introduced in the first part) is used to parametrically model the AMS, investigating its applicability to real data, to account for temporal trends in the moments of the time series. In this study two probability distributions (GEV & Gumbel) were selected to model four different types of time-varying moments of the historical time series considered, comprising eight competing models. The selected models are: two stationary models (GEV0 & Gumbel0), two nonstationary models in the mean as a linear function of time (GEV1 & Gumbel1), two nonstationary models in the mean as a parabolic function of time (GEV2 & Gumbel2), and two nonstationary models in the mean and the log standard deviation as linear functions of time (GEV11 & Gumbel11). The eight models were applied to flood data available for each watershed and their performance was compared to identify the best model for each location. The comparative methodology involves two phases: (1) a descriptive ability based on likelihood-based optimality criteria such as the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and the deviance statistic; and (2) a predictive ability based on the residual bootstrap. According to the Mann-Kendall test and the LM-NS method, a quarter of the analyzed stations show significant trends in the AMS. All of the significant trends are negative, indicating decreasing flood magnitudes in Quebec. It was found that the LM-NS method could provide accurate flood estimates in the context of nonstationarity. The results have indicated the importance of taking into consideration the nonstationary behaviour of the flood series in order to improve the quality of flood estimation. The results also provided a general impression on the possible impacts of climate change on flood estimation in the Quebec province.

Risk assessment of tropical cyclone rainfall flooding in the Delaware River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, P.; Lin, N.; Smith, J. A.; Emanuel, K.

2016-12-01

Rainfall-induced inland flooding is a leading cause of death, injury, and property damage from tropical cyclones (TCs). In the context of climate change, it has been shown that extreme precipitation from TCs is likely to increase during the 21st century. Assessing the long-term risk of inland flooding associated with landfalling TCs is therefore an important task. Standard risk assessment techniques, which are based on observations from rain gauges and stream gauges, are not broadly applicable to TC induced flooding, since TCs are rare, extreme events with very limited historical observations at any specific location. Also, rain gauges and stream gauges can hardly capture the complex spatial variation of TC rainfall and flooding. Furthermore, the utility of historically based assessments is compromised by climate change. Regional dynamical downscaling models can resolve many features of TC precipitation. In terms of risk assessment, however, it is computationally demanding to run such models to obtain long-term climatology of TC induced flooding. Here we apply a computationally efficient climatological-hydrological method to assess the risk of inland flooding associated with landfalling TCs. It includes: 1) a deterministic TC climatology modeling method to generate large numbers of synthetic TCs with physically correlated characteristics (i.e., track, intensity, size) under observed and projected climates; 2) a simple physics-based tropical cyclone rainfall model which is able to simulate rainfall fields associated with each synthetic storm; 3) a hydrologic modeling system that takes in rainfall fields to simulate flood peaks over an entire drainage basin. We will present results of this method applied to the Delaware River Basin in the mid-Atlantic US.

Spatiotemporal floodplain mapping and prediction using HEC-RAS - GIS tools: Case of the Mejerda river, Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Khalfallah, C.; Saidi, S.

2018-06-01

The floods have become a scourge in recent years (Floods of, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2011, and 2012), increasingly frequent and devastating. Tunisia does not escape flooding problems, the flood management requires basically a better knowledge of the phenomenon (flood), and the use of predictive methods. In order to limit this risk, we became interested in hydrodynamics modeling of Medjerda basin. To reach this aim, rainfall distribution is studied and mapped using GIS tools. In addition, flood and return period estimation of rainfall are calculated using Hyfran. Also, Simulations of recent floods are calculated and mapped using HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS for the most recent flood occurred in February-March 2015 in Medjerda basin. The analysis of the results shows a good correlation between simulated parameters and those measured. There is a flood of the river exceeding 240 m3/s (DGRE, 2015) and more flowing sections are observed in the future simulations; for return periods of 10yr, 20yr and 50yr.

The world's largest floods, past and present: Their causes and magnitudes

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connor, Jim E.; Costa, John E.

2004-01-01

Floods are among the most powerful forces on earth. Human societies worldwide have lived and died with floods from the very beginning, spawning a prominent role for floods within legends, religions, and history. Inspired by such accounts, geologists, hydrologists, and historians have studied the role of floods on humanity and its supporting ecosystems, resulting in new appreciation for the many-faceted role of floods in shaping our world. Part of this appreciation stems from ongoing analysis of long-term streamflow measurements, such as those recorded by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) streamflow gaging network. But the recognition of the important role of flooding in shaping our cultural and physical landscape also owes to increased understanding of the variety of mechanisms that cause floods and how the types and magnitudes of floods can vary with time and space. The USGS has contributed to this understanding through more than a century of diverse research activities on many aspects of floods, including their causes, effects, and hazards. This Circular summarizes a facet of this research by describing the causes and magnitudes of the world's largest floods, including those measured and described by modern methods in historic times, as well as floods of prehistoric times, for which the only records are those left by the floods themselves.

Bacteriological water quality in the Lake Pontchartrain basin Louisiana following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, September 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stoeckel, Donald M.; Bushon, Rebecca N.; Demcheck, Dennis K.; Skrobialowski, Stanley C.; Kephart, Christopher M.; Bertke, Erin E.; Mailot, Brian E.; Mize, Scott V.; Fendick, Robert B.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality, monitored bacteriological quality of water at 22 sites in and around Lake Pontchartrain, La., for three consecutive weeks beginning September 13, 2005, following hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the associated flooding. Samples were collected and analyzed by USGS personnel from the USGS Louisiana Water Science Center and the USGS Ohio Water Microbiology Laboratory. Fecal-indicator bacteria (Escherichia coli, enterococci, and fecal coliform) concentrations ranged from the detection limit to 36,000 colony-forming units per 100 milliliters. Data are presented in tabular form and as plots of data in the context of available historical data and water-quality standards and criteria for each site sampled. Quality-control data were reviewed to ensure that methods performed as expected in a mobile laboratory setting.

Spatio-Temporal Process Simulation of Dam-Break Flood Based on SPH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Ye, F.; Ouyang, S.; Li, Z.

2018-04-01

On the basis of introducing the SPH (Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics) simulation method, the key research problems were given solutions in this paper, which ere the spatial scale and temporal scale adapting to the GIS(Geographical Information System) application, the boundary condition equations combined with the underlying surface, and the kernel function and parameters applicable to dam-break flood simulation. In this regards, a calculation method of spatio-temporal process emulation with elaborate particles for dam-break flood was proposed. Moreover the spatio-temporal process was dynamic simulated by using GIS modelling and visualization. The results show that the method gets more information, objectiveness and real situations.

Application research for 4D technology in flood forecasting and evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ziwei; Liu, Yutong; Cao, Hongjie

1998-08-01

In order to monitor the region which disaster flood happened frequently in China, satisfy the great need of province governments for high accuracy monitoring and evaluated data for disaster and improve the efficiency for repelling disaster, under the Ninth Five-year National Key Technologies Programme, the method was researched for flood forecasting and evaluation using satellite and aerial remoted sensed image and land monitor data. The effective and practicable flood forecasting and evaluation system was established and DongTing Lake was selected as the test site. Modern Digital photogrammetry, remote sensing and GIS technology was used in this system, the disastrous flood could be forecasted and loss can be evaluated base on '4D' (DEM -- Digital Elevation Model, DOQ -- Digital OrthophotoQuads, DRG -- Digital Raster Graph, DTI -- Digital Thematic Information) disaster background database. The technology of gathering and establishing method for '4D' disaster environment background database, application technology for flood forecasting and evaluation based on '4D' background data and experimental results for DongTing Lake test site were introduced in detail in this paper.

A Study on Estimation on Flood Warning Trigger Rainfall in medium and small Stream Affected by Urban Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Youngseok, Song; Moojong, Park; JungHo, Lee; HeeSup, Lee

2013-04-01

As extreme floods occur frequently in recent years due to global climate changes, an in sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration is becoming the significant danger and loss of life and property in the Korean Peninsula as well as most parts of the world. The desire for living without hazardous damages grows these days, the city strategy to make the safer community has become an issue. Previously most of flood prevention efforts have been made for relatively large watersheds near to channel flow. However, as economical development and the expansion of city near medium and small stream, human casualty and property by flood occurs frequently. Therefore, to reduce the damage of human lives and property by flood, we develop an assessment method for flood warning trigger rainfall considering urban effect. Considering complex land use, HEC-HMS is used for rural area and SWMM is adopted for sewer networks runoff. And relationship between runoff and stream water level, HEC-RAS is accompanied with runoff results. Proposed flood warning trigger rainfall assessment method shows good agreement with gauged data and could be used for another case to mitigate damage. Acknowledgement: "This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-NH-2011-45] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of Korea." Keyword: HEC-HMS, HEC-RAS, critical precipitation, medium and small stream

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Peak flood estimation using gene expression programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zorn, Conrad R.; Shamseldin, Asaad Y.

2015-12-01

As a case study for the Auckland Region of New Zealand, this paper investigates the potential use of gene-expression programming (GEP) in predicting specific return period events in comparison to the established and widely used Regional Flood Estimation (RFE) method. Initially calibrated to 14 gauged sites, the GEP derived model was further validated to 10 and 100 year flood events with a relative errors of 29% and 18%, respectively. This is compared to the RFE method providing 48% and 44% errors for the same flood events. While the effectiveness of GEP in predicting specific return period events is made apparent, it is argued that the derived equations should be used in conjunction with those existing methodologies rather than as a replacement.

A mixed method to evaluate burden of malaria due to flooding and waterlogging in Mengcheng County, China: a case study.

PubMed

Ding, Guoyong; Gao, Lu; Li, Xuewen; Zhou, Maigeng; Liu, Qiyong; Ren, Hongyan; Jiang, Baofa

2014-01-01

Malaria is a highly climate-sensitive vector-borne infectious disease that still represents a significant public health problem in Huaihe River Basin. However, little comprehensive information about the burden of malaria caused by flooding and waterlogging is available from this region. This study aims to quantitatively assess the impact of flooding and waterlogging on the burden of malaria in a county of Anhui Province, China. A mixed method evaluation was conducted. A case-crossover study was firstly performed to evaluate the relationship between daily number of cases of malaria and flooding and waterlogging from May to October 2007 in Mengcheng County, China. Stratified Cox models were used to examine the lagged time and hazard ratios (HRs) of the risk of flooding and waterlogging on malaria. Years lived with disability (YLDs) of malaria attributable to flooding and waterlogging were then estimated based on the WHO framework of calculating potential impact fraction in the Global Burden of Disease study. A total of 3683 malaria were notified during the study period. The strongest effect was shown with a 25-day lag for flooding and a 7-day lag for waterlogging. Multivariable analysis showed that an increased risk of malaria was significantly associated with flooding alone [adjusted hazard ratio (AHR)  = 1.467, 95% CI = 1.257, 1.713], waterlogging alone (AHR = 1.879, 95% CI = 1.696, 2.121), and flooding and waterlogging together (AHR = 2.926, 95% CI = 2.576, 3.325). YLDs per 1000 of malaria attributable to flooding alone, waterlogging alone and flooding and waterlogging together were 0.009 per day, 0.019 per day and 0.022 per day, respectively. Flooding and waterlogging can lead to higher burden of malaria in the study area. Public health action should be taken to avoid and control a potential risk of malaria epidemics after these two weather disasters.

Fault tree analysis for urban flooding.

PubMed

ten Veldhuis, J A E; Clemens, F H L R; van Gelder, P H A J M

2009-01-01

Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk generally focus on heavy storm events as the principal cause of flooding. Conversely, fault tree analysis is a technique that aims at modelling all potential causes of flooding. It quantifies both overall flood probability and relative contributions of individual causes of flooding. This paper presents a fault model for urban flooding and an application to the case of Haarlem, a city of 147,000 inhabitants. Data from a complaint register, rainfall gauges and hydrodynamic model calculations are used to quantify probabilities of basic events in the fault tree. This results in a flood probability of 0.78/week for Haarlem. It is shown that gully pot blockages contribute to 79% of flood incidents, whereas storm events contribute only 5%. This implies that for this case more efficient gully pot cleaning is a more effective strategy to reduce flood probability than enlarging drainage system capacity. Whether this is also the most cost-effective strategy can only be decided after risk assessment has been complemented with a quantification of consequences of both types of events. To do this will be the next step in this study.

Magnitude and frequency of floods in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodge, Scott A.; Tasker, Gary D.

1995-01-01

Methods are presented for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams in Arkansas. Regression analyses were developed in which a stream's physical and flood characteristics were related. Four sets of regional regression equations were derived to predict peak discharges with selected recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years on streams draining less than 7,770 square kilometers. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods. The region of influence method is included in this report. This method is still being improved and is to be considered only as a second alternative to the standard method of producing regional regression equations. This method estimates unique regression equations for each recurrence interval for each ungaged site. The regression analyses indicate that size of drainage area, main channel slope, mean annual precipitation, mean basin elevation, and the basin shape factor were the most significant basin and climatic characteristics that affect magnitude and frequency of floods for this method. Certain recommendations on the use of this method are provided. A method is described for estimating the magnitude and frequency of peak discharges of streams for urban areas in Arkansas. The method is from a nationwide U.S. Geeological Survey flood frequency report which uses urban basin characteristics combined with rural discharges to estimate urban discharges. Annual peak discharges from 204 gaging stations, with drainage areas less than 7,770 square kilometers and at least 10 years of unregulated record, were used in the analysis. These data provide the basis for this analysis and are published in the Appendix of this report as supplemental data. Large rivers such as the Red, Arkansas, White, Black, St. Francis, Mississippi, and Ouachita Rivers have floodflow characteristics that differ from those of smaller tributary streams and were treated individually. Regional regression equations are not applicable to these large rivers. The magnitude and frequency of floods along these rivers are based on specific station data. This section is provided in the Appendix and has not been updated since the last Arkansas flood frequency report (1987b), but is included at the request of the cooperator.

Biogeochemical cycling in Rice Agroecosystems Resulting From Water and Si management: Implications for As abatement and Sustainable Rice Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyfferth, A.; Limmer, M. A.; Amaral, D.; Teasley, W.

2017-12-01

Flooded rice agroecosystems favor geochemical conditions that mobilize soil-bound arsenic (As) and produce methane (CH4). These negative outcomes of flooded rice may lead to As exposure upon As-laden rice grain consumption and enhanced greenhouse gas emissions. Periodic draining of fields (e.g., alternate wetting and drying) is effective at minimizing these negative outcomes, but may reduce rice yield, increase toxic Cd in grain, and increase nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Because 3 of the 4 dominant chemical form of As in flooded paddy soil share the efficient Si uptake pathway, increasing plant-available Si can decrease toxic As in grain and boost yield, particularly when plants are stressed with As. We used combined pot and field studies to examine the biogeochemical cycling of As, Fe, Si, and C when plants are grown with water and/or Si management, the latter of which under both low and high As conditions. We show that increasing plant-available Si can be used alone or in conjunction with water management to improve rice yields depending on the edaphic conditions. These processes and findings will be discussed in the larger context of global food security.

Non-parametric data-based approach for the quantification and communication of uncertainties in river flood forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Steenbergen, N.; Willems, P.

2012-04-01

Reliable flood forecasts are the most important non-structural measures to reduce the impact of floods. However flood forecasting systems are subject to uncertainty originating from the input data, model structure and model parameters of the different hydraulic and hydrological submodels. To quantify this uncertainty a non-parametric data-based approach has been developed. This approach analyses the historical forecast residuals (differences between the predictions and the observations at river gauging stations) without using a predefined statistical error distribution. Because the residuals are correlated with the value of the forecasted water level and the lead time, the residuals are split up into discrete classes of simulated water levels and lead times. For each class, percentile values are calculated of the model residuals and stored in a 'three dimensional error' matrix. By 3D interpolation in this error matrix, the uncertainty in new forecasted water levels can be quantified. In addition to the quantification of the uncertainty, the communication of this uncertainty is equally important. The communication has to be done in a consistent way, reducing the chance of misinterpretation. Also, the communication needs to be adapted to the audience; the majority of the larger public is not interested in in-depth information on the uncertainty on the predicted water levels, but only is interested in information on the likelihood of exceedance of certain alarm levels. Water managers need more information, e.g. time dependent uncertainty information, because they rely on this information to undertake the appropriate flood mitigation action. There are various ways in presenting uncertainty information (numerical, linguistic, graphical, time (in)dependent, etc.) each with their advantages and disadvantages for a specific audience. A useful method to communicate uncertainty of flood forecasts is by probabilistic flood mapping. These maps give a representation of the probability of flooding of a certain area, based on the uncertainty assessment of the flood forecasts. By using this type of maps, water managers can focus their attention on the areas with the highest flood probability. Also the larger public can consult these maps for information on the probability of flooding for their specific location, such that they can take pro-active measures to reduce the personal damage. The method of quantifying the uncertainty was implemented in the operational flood forecasting system for the navigable rivers in the Flanders region of Belgium. The method has shown clear benefits during the floods of the last two years.

Rainfall Threshold for Flash Flood Early Warning Based on Rational Equation: A Case Study of Zuojiao Watershed in Yunnan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Wang, Y. L.; Li, H. C.; Zhang, M.; Li, C. Z.; Chen, X.

2017-12-01

Rainfall threshold plays an important role in flash flood warning. A simple and easy method, using Rational Equation to calculate rainfall threshold, was proposed in this study. The critical rainfall equation was deduced from the Rational Equation. On the basis of the Manning equation and the results of Chinese Flash Flood Survey and Evaluation (CFFSE) Project, the critical flow was obtained, and the net rainfall was calculated. Three aspects of the rainfall losses, i.e. depression storage, vegetation interception, and soil infiltration were considered. The critical rainfall was the sum of the net rainfall and the rainfall losses. Rainfall threshold was estimated after considering the watershed soil moisture using the critical rainfall. In order to demonstrate this method, Zuojiao watershed in Yunnan Province was chosen as study area. The results showed the rainfall thresholds calculated by the Rational Equation method were approximated to the rainfall thresholds obtained from CFFSE, and were in accordance with the observed rainfall during flash flood events. Thus the calculated results are reasonable and the method is effective. This study provided a quick and convenient way to calculated rainfall threshold of flash flood warning for the grass root staffs and offered technical support for estimating rainfall threshold.

Assessment of flood susceptible areas using spatially explicit, probabilistic multi-criteria decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Zhongqian; Zhang, Hua; Yi, Shanzhen; Xiao, Yangfan

2018-03-01

GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support flood risk assessment. However, conventional GIS-MCDA methods fail to adequately represent spatial variability and are accompanied with considerable uncertainty. It is, thus, important to incorporate spatial variability and uncertainty into GIS-based decision analysis procedures. This research develops a spatially explicit, probabilistic GIS-MCDA approach for the delineation of potentially flood susceptible areas. The approach integrates the probabilistic and the local ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods via Monte Carlo simulation, to take into account the uncertainty related to criteria weights, spatial heterogeneity of preferences and the risk attitude of the analyst. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the Gucheng County, central China, heavily affected by the hazardous 2012 flood. A GIS database of six geomorphological and hydrometeorological factors for the evaluation of susceptibility was created. Moreover, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to investigate the robustness of the model. The results indicate that the ensemble method improves the robustness of the model outcomes with respect to variation in criteria weights and identifies which criteria weights are most responsible for the variability of model outcomes. Therefore, the proposed approach is an improvement over the conventional deterministic method and can provides a more rational, objective and unbiased tool for flood susceptibility evaluation.

[The assessment of vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level].

PubMed

Zhu, Qi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong-hui; Luo, Yuan; Wei, Yao; Xiao, Jian-peng; Zeng, Si-qing; Ma, Wen-jun

2012-11-01

To evaluate the vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level. Data were collected from the sixth census, the 2010 Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong, the 2010 Health Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong and China Disease Prevention and Control information systems, etc. The weight of each indicator was determined based on subjective method and objective method respectively; and finally the results of the two methods were compared. 13 indicators were selected for the assessment of vulnerability to floods, including 6 sensitivity indicators, 5 adaptability indicators and 2 exposure indicators. Indicators with large weight (subjective weight/objective weight) were the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.31/0.30), the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.16/0.23), infant mortality rate (0.18/0.20), the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (0.33/0.21), the proportion of illiterate in the population older than 15 years old (0.19/0.28), history frequency of floods (0.75/0.75). The mean vulnerability index (VI) calculated by subjective method was 0.35 with the standard deviation of 0.10; the mean vulnerability index calculated by objective method was 0.31 with the standard deviation of 0.08. The two weighting methods showed consistent results of vulnerability index (ICC = 0.975, P < 0.01). VI of most districts dropped in the interval of 0.30 - 0.39. Districts with subjective VI > 0.50 or objective VI > 0.40 should pay more attention to floods, including parts of the coastal areas, Beijiang River Basin, the eastern tributary area of Dongjiang River and the northern part of Pearl River Delta. Dapu district of Meizhou (0.55/0.45), Dianbai district and Maogang district of Maoming (0.54/0.48) were most vulnerable. Districts of Heyuan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Huizhou were less vulnerable, Yuancheng district of Heyuan showed least vulnerable to floods (0.15/0.12) followed by Dongguan (0.18/0.16), Duanzhou district (0.18/0.16) and Guangning (0.17/0.15) district of Zhaoqing. The score of indicators differed among different level of vulnerability (P < 0.05). Different regions of Guangdong province showed different vulnerability to floods, vulnerable areas should be priority in the prevention and control of floods.

Using risk-based analysis and geographic information systems to assess flooding problems in an urban watershed in Rhode Island.

PubMed

Hardmeyer, Kent; Spencer, Michael A

2007-04-01

This article provides an overview of the use of risk-based analysis (RBA) in flood damage assessment, and it illustrates the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in identifying flood-prone areas, which can aid in flood-mitigation planning assistance. We use RBA to calculate expected annual flood damages in an urban watershed in the state of Rhode Island, USA. The method accounts for the uncertainty in the three primary relationships used in computing flood damage: (1) the probability that a given flood will produce a given amount of floodwater, (2) the probability that a given amount of floodwater will reach a certain stage or height, and (3) the probability that a certain stage of floodwater will produce a given amount of damage. A greater than 50% increase in expected annual flood damage is estimated for the future if previous development patterns continue and flood-mitigation measures are not taken. GIS is then used to create a map that shows where and how often floods might occur in the future, which can help (1) identify priority areas for flood-mitigation planning assistance and (2) disseminate information to public officials and other decision-makers.

Hydrometeorological network for flood monitoring and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstratiadis, Andreas; Koussis, Antonis D.; Lykoudis, Spyros; Koukouvinos, Antonis; Christofides, Antonis; Karavokiros, George; Kappos, Nikos; Mamassis, Nikos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

2013-08-01

Due to its highly fragmented geomorphology, Greece comprises hundreds of small- to medium-size hydrological basins, in which often the terrain is fairly steep and the streamflow regime ephemeral. These are typically affected by flash floods, occasionally causing severe damages. Yet, the vast majority of them lack flow-gauging infrastructure providing systematic hydrometric data at fine time scales. This has obvious impacts on the quality and reliability of flood studies, which typically use simplistic approaches for ungauged basins that do not consider local peculiarities in sufficient detail. In order to provide a consistent framework for flood design and to ensure realistic predictions of the flood risk -a key issue of the 2007/60/EC Directive- it is essential to improve the monitoring infrastructures by taking advantage of modern technologies for remote control and data management. In this context and in the research project DEUCALION, we have recently installed and are operating, in four pilot river basins, a telemetry-based hydro-meteorological network that comprises automatic stations and is linked to and supported by relevant software. The hydrometric stations measure stage, using 50-kHz ultrasonic pulses or piezometric sensors, or both stage (piezometric) and velocity via acoustic Doppler radar; all measurements are being temperature-corrected. The meteorological stations record air temperature, pressure, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation. Data transfer is made via GPRS or mobile telephony modems. The monitoring network is supported by a web-based application for storage, visualization and management of geographical and hydro-meteorological data (ENHYDRIS), a software tool for data analysis and processing (HYDROGNOMON), as well as an advanced model for flood simulation (HYDROGEIOS). The recorded hydro-meteorological observations are accessible over the Internet through the www-application. The system is operational and its functionality has been implemented as open-source software for use in a wide range of applications in the field of water resources monitoring and management, such as the demonstration case study outlined in this work.

Integrated Flood Forecast and Virtual Dam Operation System for Water Resources and Flood Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Ikoma, Eiji; Lawford, Peter; Oyanagi, Misa; Kanauchi, Shizu; Koudelova, Petra; Kitsuregawa, Masaru; Koike, Toshio

2014-05-01

While availability of hydrological- and hydrometeorological data shows growing tendency and advanced modeling techniques are emerging, such newly available data and advanced models may not always be applied in the field of decision-making. In this study we present an integrated system of ensemble streamflow forecast (ESP) and virtual dam simulator, which is designed to support river and dam manager's decision making. The system consists of three main functions: real time hydrological model, ESP model, and dam simulator model. In the real time model, the system simulates current condition of river basins, such as soil moisture and river discharges, using LSM coupled distributed hydrological model. The ESP model takes initial condition from the real time model's output and generates ESP, based on numerical weather prediction. The dam simulator model provides virtual dam operation and users can experience impact of dam control on remaining reservoir volume and downstream flood under the anticipated flood forecast. Thus the river and dam managers shall be able to evaluate benefit of priori dam release and flood risk reduction at the same time, on real time basis. Furthermore the system has been developed under the concept of data and models integration, and it is coupled with Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) - a Japanese national project for integrating and analyzing massive amount of observational and model data. Therefore it has advantage in direct use of miscellaneous data from point/radar-derived observation, numerical weather prediction output, to satellite imagery stored in data archive. Output of the system is accessible over the web interface, making information available with relative ease, e.g. from ordinary PC to mobile devices. We have been applying the system to the Upper Tone region, located northwest from Tokyo metropolitan area, and we show application example of the system in recent flood events caused by typhoons.

Developing a Global Database of Historic Flood Events to Support Machine Learning Flood Prediction in Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kuhn, C.; Doyle, C.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing need to understand flood vulnerability as the societal and economic effects of flooding increases. Risk models from insurance companies and flood models from hydrologists must be calibrated based on flood observations in order to make future predictions that can improve planning and help societies reduce future disasters. Specifically, to improve these models both traditional methods of flood prediction from physically based models as well as data-driven techniques, such as machine learning, require spatial flood observation to validate model outputs and quantify uncertainty. A key dataset that is missing for flood model validation is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Currently, the most advanced database of historical flood extent is hosted and maintained at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) that has catalogued 4320 floods (1985-2015) but has only mapped 5% of these floods. We are addressing this data gap by mapping the inventory of floods in the DFO database to create a first-of- its-kind, comprehensive, global and historical geospatial database of flood events. To do so, we combine water detection algorithms on MODIS and Landsat 5,7 and 8 imagery in Google Earth Engine to map discrete flood events. The created database will be available in the Earth Engine Catalogue for download by country, region, or time period. This dataset can be leveraged for new data-driven hydrologic modeling using machine learning algorithms in Earth Engine's highly parallelized computing environment, and we will show examples for New York and Senegal.

Hyper-resolution monitoring of urban flooding with social media and crowdsourcing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruo-Qian; Mao, Huina; Wang, Yuan; Rae, Chris; Shaw, Wesley

2018-02-01

Hyper-resolution datasets for urban flooding are rare. This problem prevents detailed flooding risk analysis, urban flooding control, and the validation of hyper-resolution numerical models. We employed social media and crowdsourcing data to address this issue. Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision techniques are applied to the data collected from Twitter and MyCoast (a crowdsourcing app). We found these big data based flood monitoring approaches can complement the existing means of flood data collection. The extracted information is validated against precipitation data and road closure reports to examine the data quality. The two data collection approaches are compared and the two data mining methods are discussed. A series of suggestions is given to improve the data collection strategy.

Floodflow characteristics at proposed bridge site on Fishkill Creek, Fishkill, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zembrzuski, Thomas J.; Dunn, Bernard

1976-01-01

An evaluation of floodflow characteristics of Fishkill Creek at the proposed bridge site at Fishkill, N.Y., was made for the 50- and 100-year floods. The flood-frequency analysis revealed that the magnitude of the 50- and 100-year floods are 8,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) and 10,000 cfs, respectively. The normal water-surface elevation at the approach cross section was determined by the slope-conveyance method to be 209.8 feet during a 50-year flood and 210.8 feet during a 100-year flood. Also included is an analysis of the effect of the existing bridge and of two alternative bridge designs on the profiles of floods having recurrence intervals of 50 and 100 years. (Woodard-USGS)

Uncertainties in the palaeoflood record - interpreting geomorphology since 12 500 BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moloney, Jessica; Coulthard, Tom; Freer, Jim; Rogerson, Mike

2017-04-01

Recent floods in the UK have reinvigorated the national debate within academic and non-academic organisations of how we quantify risk and improve the resilience of communities to flooding. One critical aspect of that debate is to better understand and quantify the frequency of extreme floods occurring. The research presented in this study explores the challenges and uncertainties of using longer term palaeoflood data records to improve the quantification of flood risk. The frequency of floods has been studied on short (under 100 years) and long-time (over 200 years) scales. Long term flood frequency records rely on the radiocarbon dating and interpretation of geomorphological evidence within fluvial depositional environments. However, there are limitations with the methods used to do this. Notably, the use of probability distribution functions of fluvial deposits dates does not consider any other information, such as the geomorphological context of material and/ or the type of depositional environment. This study re-analyses 776 radiocarbon dated fluvial deposits from the UK, which have been compiled into a database, to interpret the geomorphological flood record. Initial findings indicate that even this large number of samples may be unsuitable for probabilistic methods and shows an unusual sensitivity to the number of records present in the database.

Low cost, multiscale and multi-sensor application for flooded area mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giordan, Daniele; Notti, Davide; Villa, Alfredo; Zucca, Francesco; Calò, Fabiana; Pepe, Antonio; Dutto, Furio; Pari, Paolo; Baldo, Marco; Allasia, Paolo

2018-05-01

Flood mapping and estimation of the maximum water depth are essential elements for the first damage evaluation, civil protection intervention planning and detection of areas where remediation is needed. In this work, we present and discuss a methodology for mapping and quantifying flood severity over floodplains. The proposed methodology considers a multiscale and multi-sensor approach using free or low-cost data and sensors. We applied this method to the November 2016 Piedmont (northwestern Italy) flood. We first mapped the flooded areas at the basin scale using free satellite data from low- to medium-high-resolution from both the SAR (Sentinel-1, COSMO-Skymed) and multispectral sensors (MODIS, Sentinel-2). Using very- and ultra-high-resolution images from the low-cost aerial platform and remotely piloted aerial system, we refined the flooded zone and detected the most damaged sector. The presented method considers both urbanised and non-urbanised areas. Nadiral images have several limitations, in particular in urbanised areas, where the use of terrestrial images solved this limitation. Very- and ultra-high-resolution images were processed with structure from motion (SfM) for the realisation of 3-D models. These data, combined with an available digital terrain model, allowed us to obtain maps of the flooded area, maximum high water area and damaged infrastructures.

Water Resources Study for Metropolitan Chester Creek Basin, Pennsylvania.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-09-01

premium is the second most effective method of calling attention to the flood risk . The first is a flood itself. Presumably the cost will encourage the...communities in the Basin. Due to the high risks in- volved people should strive to keep the coverage current and at the maximim level allowed. Permanent Flood...result of future development of upstream areas, and the eight lives lost in the flood of record and future risk of the loss of lives. I have determined

Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

2014-05-01

Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some appropriate uses of global scale hazard maps and explore how this new approach can be invaluable in areas of the world where flood hazard and risk have not previously been assessed.

Assessment of watershed regionalization for the land use change parameterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randusová, Beata; Kohnová, Silvia; Studvová, Zuzana; Marková, Romana; Nosko, Radovan

2016-04-01

The estimation of design discharges and water levels of extreme floods is one of the most important parts of the design process for a large number of engineering projects and studies. Floods and other natural hazards initiated by climate, soil, and land use changes are highly important in the 21st century. Flood risks and design flood estimation is particularly challenging. Methods of design flood estimation can be applied either locally or regionally. To obtain the design values in such cases where no recorded data exist, many countries have adopted procedures that fit the local conditions and requirements. One of these methods is the Soil Conservation Service - Curve number (SCS-CN) method which is often used in design flood estimation for ungauged sites. The SCS-CN method is an empirical rainfall-runoff model developed by the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or SCS). The runoff curve number (CN) is based on the hydrological soil characteristics, land use, land management and antecedent saturation conditions of soil. This study is focused on development of the SCS-CN methodology for the changing land use conditions in Slovak basins (with the pilot site of the Myjava catchment), which regionalize actual state of land use data and actual rainfall and discharge measurements of the selected river basins. In this study the state of the water erosion and sediment transport along with a subsequent proposal of erosion control measures was analyzed as well. The regionalized SCS-CN method was subsequently used for assessing the effectiveness of this control measure to reduce runoff from the selected basin. For the determination of the sediment transport from the control measure to the Myjava basin, the SDR (Sediment Delivery Ratio) model was used.

Decadal oscillations and extreme value distribution of river peak flows in the Meuse catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Niel, Jan; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

In flood risk management, flood probabilities are often quantified through Generalized Pareto distributions of river peak flows. One of the main underlying assumptions is that all data points need to originate from one single underlying distribution (i.i.d. assumption). However, this hypothesis, although generally assumed to be correct for variables such as river peak flows, remains somehow questionable: flooding might indeed be caused by different hydrological and/or meteorological conditions. This study confirms these findings from previous research by showing a clear indication of the link between atmospheric conditions and flooding for the Meuse river in The Netherlands: decadal oscillations of river peak flows can (at least partially) be attributed to the occurrence of westerly weather types. The study further proposes a method to take this correlation between atmospheric conditions and river peak flows into account when calibrating an extreme value distribution for river peak flows. Rather than calibrating one single distribution to the data and potentially violating the i.i.d. assumption, weather type depending extreme value distributions are derived and composed. The study shows that, for the Meuse river in The Netherlands, such approach results in a more accurate extreme value distribution, especially with regards to extrapolations. Comparison of the proposed method with a traditional extreme value analysis approach and an alternative model-based approach for the same case study shows strong differences in the peak flow extrapolation. The design-flood for a 1,250 year return period is estimated at 4,800 m3s-1 for the proposed method, compared with 3,450 m3s-1 and 3,900 m3s-1 for the traditional method and a previous study. The methods were validated based on instrumental and documentary flood information of the past 500 years.

Benchmarking an operational procedure for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Salamon, Peter; Kalas, Milan; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The development of real-time methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is crucial to improve emergency response and mitigate flood impacts. This work describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on the flood predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The daily forecasts produced for the major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, based on the hydro-meteorological dataset of EFAS. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in near real-time in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, affected population, infrastructures and cities. An extensive testing of the operational procedure is carried out using the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-derived flood footprints, while ground-based estimations of economic damage and affected population is compared against modelled estimates. We evaluated the skill of flood hazard and risk estimations derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations. The assessment includes a comparison of several alternative approaches to produce and present the information content, in order to meet the requests of EFAS users. The tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Investigating fluvial pattern and delta-planform geometry based on varying intervals of flood and interflood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rambo, J. E.; Kim, W.; Miller, K.

2017-12-01

Physical modeling of a delta's evolution can represent how changing the intervals of flood and interflood can alter a delta's fluvial pattern and geometry. Here we present a set of six experimental runs in which sediment and water were discharged at constant rates over each experiment. During the "flood" period, both sediment and water were discharged at rates of 0.25 cm3/s and 15 ml/s respectively, and during the "interflood" period, only water was discharged at 7.5 ml/s. The flood periods were only run for 30 minutes to keep the total volume of sediment constant. Run 0 did not have an interflood period and therefore ran with constant sediment and water discharge for the duration of the experiment.The other five runs had either 5, 10, or 15-min intervals of flood with 5, 10, or 15-min intervals of interflood. The experimental results show that Run 0 had the smallest topset area. This is due to a lack of surface reworking that takes place during interflood periods. Run 1 had 15-minute intervals of flood and 15-minute intervals of interflood, and it had the largest topset area. Additionally, the experiments that had longer intervals of interflood than flood had more elongated delta geometries. Wetted fraction color maps were also created to plot channel locations during each run. The maps show that the runs with longer interflood durations had channels occurring predominantly down the middle with stronger incisions; these runs produced deltas with more elongated geometries. When the interflood duration was even longer, however, strong channels started to occur at multiple locations. This increased interflood period allowed for the entire area over the delta's surface to be reworked, thus reducing the downstream slope and allowing channels to be more mobile laterally. Physical modeling of a delta allows us to predict a delta's resulting geometry given a set of conditions. This insight is needed especially with delta's being the home to many populations of people and a habitat for various other species.

Production and decomposition of forest litter fall on the Apalachicola River flood plain, Florida: Chapter B, Apalachicola River quality assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elder, John F.; Cairns, Duncan J.

1982-01-01

Measurements of litter fall (leaves and other particulate organic material) and leaf decomposition were made on the bottom-land hardwood swamp of the Apalachicola River flood plain in 1979-80. Litter fall was collected monthly from nets located in 16 study plots. The plots represented five forest types in the swamp and levee areas of the Apalachicola River flood plain. Forty-three species of trees, vines, and other plants contributed to the total litter fall, but more than 90 percent of the leaf material originated from 12 species. Nonleaf material made up 42 percent of the total litter fall. Average litter fall was determined to be 800 grams per square meter per year, resulting in an annual deposition of 3.6 ? 105 metric tons of organic material in the 454-square-kilometer flood plain. The levee communities have less tree biomass but greater tree diversity than do swamp communities. The levee vegetation, containing less tree biomass, produces slightly more litter fall per unit of ground surface area than does the swamp vegetation. The swamps are dominated by three genera: tupelo (Nyssa), cypress (Taxodium) and ash (Fraxinus). These genera account for more than 50 percent of the total leaf fall in the flood plain, but they are the least productive, on a weight-perbiomass basis, of any of the 12 major leaf producers. Decomposition rates of leaves from five common floodplain tree species were measured using a standard leaf-bag technique. Leaf decomposition was highly species dependent. Tupelo (Nyssa spp.) and sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) leaves decomposed completely in 6 months when flooded by river water. Leaves of baldcypress (Taxodium distichum) and diamond-leaf oak (Quercus laurifolia) were much more resistant. Water hickory (Carya aquatica) leaves showed intermediate decomposition rates. Decomposition of all species was greatly reduced in dry environments. Carbon and biomass loss rates from the leaves were nearly linear over a 6-month period, but nitrogen and phosphorus leaching was nearly complete within 1 month. Much of the organic substance may be recycled in the forest ecosystem, but annual flooding of the river provides an important mechanism for mobilization of the litter-fall products.

Simulation of extreme reservoir level distribution with the SCHADEX method (EXTRAFLO project)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Garavaglia, Federico

2013-04-01

The standard practice for the design of dam spillways structures and gates is to consider the maximum reservoir level reached for a given hydrologic scenario. This scenario has several components: peak discharge, flood volumes on different durations, discharge gradients etc. Within a probabilistic analysis framework, several scenarios can be associated with different return times, although a reference return level (e.g. 1000 years) is often prescribed by the local regulation rules or usual practice. Using continuous simulation method for extreme flood estimation is a convenient solution to provide a great variety of hydrological scenarios to feed a hydraulic model of dam operation: flood hydrographs are explicitly simulated by a rainfall-runoff model fed by a stochastic rainfall generator. The maximum reservoir level reached will be conditioned by the scale and the dynamics of the generated hydrograph, by the filling of the reservoir prior to the flood, and by the dam gates and spillway operation during the event. The simulation of a great number of floods will allow building a probabilistic distribution of maximum reservoir levels. A design value can be chosen at a definite return level. An alternative approach is proposed here, based on the SCHADEX method for extreme flood estimation, proposed by Paquet et al. (2006, 2013). SCHADEX is a so-called "semi-continuous" stochastic simulation method in that flood events are simulated on an event basis and are superimposed on a continuous simulation of the catchment saturation hazard using rainfall-runoff modelling. The SCHADEX process works at the study time-step (e.g. daily), and the peak flow distribution is deduced from the simulated daily flow distribution by a peak-to-volume ratio. A reference hydrograph relevant for extreme floods is proposed. In the standard version of the method, both the peak-to-volume and the reference hydrograph are constant. An enhancement of this method is presented, with variable peak-to-volume ratios and hydrographs applied to each simulated event. This allows accounting for different flood dynamics, depending on the season, the generating precipitation event, the soil saturation state, etc. In both cases, a hydraulic simulation of dam operation is performed, in order to compute the distribution of maximum reservoir levels. Results are detailed for an extreme return level, showing that a 1000 years return level reservoir level can be reached during flood events whose components (peaks, volumes) are not necessarily associated with such return level. The presentation will be illustrated by the example of a fictive dam on the Tech River at Reynes (South of France, 477 km²). This study has been carried out within the EXTRAFLO project, Task 8 (https://extraflo.cemagref.fr/). References: Paquet, E., Gailhard, J. and Garçon, R. (2006), Evolution of the GRADEX method: improvement by atmospheric circulation classification and hydrological modeling, La Houille Blanche, 5, 80-90. doi:10.1051/lhb:2006091. Paquet, E., Garavaglia, F., Garçon, R. and Gailhard, J. (2012), The SCHADEX method: a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme food estimation, Journal of Hydrology, under revision

Research of Water Level Prediction for a Continuous Flood due to Typhoons Based on a Machine Learning Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakatsugawa, M.; Kobayashi, Y.; Okazaki, R.; Taniguchi, Y.

2017-12-01

This research aims to improve accuracy of water level prediction calculations for more effective river management. In August 2016, Hokkaido was visited by four typhoons, whose heavy rainfall caused severe flooding. In the Tokoro river basin of Eastern Hokkaido, the water level (WL) at the Kamikawazoe gauging station, which is at the lower reaches exceeded the design high-water level and the water rose to the highest level on record. To predict such flood conditions and mitigate disaster damage, it is necessary to improve the accuracy of prediction as well as to prolong the lead time (LT) required for disaster mitigation measures such as flood-fighting activities and evacuation actions by residents. There is the need to predict the river water level around the peak stage earlier and more accurately. Previous research dealing with WL prediction had proposed a method in which the WL at the lower reaches is estimated by the correlation with the WL at the upper reaches (hereinafter: "the water level correlation method"). Additionally, a runoff model-based method has been generally used in which the discharge is estimated by giving rainfall prediction data to a runoff model such as a storage function model and then the WL is estimated from that discharge by using a WL discharge rating curve (H-Q curve). In this research, an attempt was made to predict WL by applying the Random Forest (RF) method, which is a machine learning method that can estimate the contribution of explanatory variables. Furthermore, from the practical point of view, we investigated the prediction of WL based on a multiple correlation (MC) method involving factors using explanatory variables with high contribution in the RF method, and we examined the proper selection of explanatory variables and the extension of LT. The following results were found: 1) Based on the RF method tuned up by learning from previous floods, the WL for the abnormal flood case of August 2016 was properly predicted with a lead time of 6 h. 2) Based on the contribution of explanatory variables, factors were selected for the MC method. In this way, plausible prediction results were obtained.

MEDICAL PREPAREDNESS FOR DISASTER

PubMed Central

Stein, Justin J.

1959-01-01

The Federal Civil Defense Administration has been consolidated under the President's Reorganization Plan No. 1 of 1958 with the Office of Defense Mobilization. The new organization, the Office of Civil and Defense Mobilization, should be able to deal more efficiently with the problem of mobilization and management of all resources and production of the nation in time of disaster. As preparation for possible enemy attack, organized plans entailing training, supplies, equipment and communications for use in major peacetime disasters—floods, earthquakes, tornado damage—should be carried forward vigorously. Apathy must be overcome. From the local to the highest level all civil defense and disaster plans must be developed and kept flexible enough to be operable during any kind of emergency. Physicians must learn as much as they can about the mass care of casualties, how to survive under the most trying of circumstances. Drills in dealing with simulated disaster are of utmost importance for finding out ahead of time what must be done and the personnel and supplies needed for doing it. PMID:13651962

Suspended-sediment and fresh-water discharges in the Ob and Yenisey rivers, 1960-1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meade, R.H.; Bobrovitskaya, N.N.; Babkin, V.I.

2000-01-01

Of the world's great rivers, the Ob and Yenisey rank among the largest suppliers of fresh water and among the smallest suppliers of suspended sediment to the coastal ocean. Sediment in the middle reaches of the rivers is mobilized from bordering terraces and exchanged between channels and flood plains. Sediment in the lower reaches of these great rivers is deposited and stored (permanently, on a millennial time scale) in flood plains. Sediment discharges, already small under natural conditions, are diminished further by large manmade reservoirs that trap significant proportions of the moving solids. The long winter freeze and sudden spring breakup impose a peakedness in seasonal water runoff and sediment discharge that contrasts markedly with that in rivers of the tropics and more temperate climates. Very little sediment from the Ob and Yenisey rivers is being transported to the open waters of the Arctic Ocean under present conditions.