Drought-induced changes in flow regimes lead to long-term losses in mussel-provided ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Vaughn, Caryn C; Atkinson, Carla L; Julian, Jason P

2015-01-01

Extreme hydro-meteorological events such as droughts are becoming more frequent, intense, and persistent. This is particularly true in the south central USA, where rapidly growing urban areas are running out of water and human-engineered water storage and management are leading to broad-scale changes in flow regimes. The Kiamichi River in southeastern Oklahoma, USA, has high fish and freshwater mussel biodiversity. However, water from this rural river is desired by multiple urban areas and other entities. Freshwater mussels are large, long-lived filter feeders that provide important ecosystem services. We ask how observed changes in mussel biomass and community composition resulting from drought-induced changes in flow regimes might lead to changes in river ecosystem services. We sampled mussel communities in this river over a 20-year period that included two severe droughts. We then used laboratory-derived physiological rates and river-wide estimates of species-specific mussel biomass to estimate three aggregate ecosystem services provided by mussels over this time period: biofiltration, nutrient recycling (nitrogen and phosphorus), and nutrient storage (nitrogen, phosphorus, and carbon). Mussel populations declined over 60%, and declines were directly linked to drought-induced changes in flow regimes. All ecosystem services declined over time and mirrored biomass losses. Mussel declines were exacerbated by human water management, which has increased the magnitude and frequency of hydrologic drought in downstream reaches of the river. Freshwater mussels are globally imperiled and declining around the world. Summed across multiple streams and rivers, mussel losses similar to those we document here could have considerable consequences for downstream water quality although lost biofiltration and nutrient retention. While we cannot control the frequency and severity of climatological droughts, water releases from reservoirs could be used to augment stream flows and prevent compounded anthropogenic stressors. PMID:25859334

Effect of three commercially available chewing gums on salivary flow rate and pH in caries-active and caries-free children: An in vivo study.

PubMed

Vantipalli, Usha Kiran; Avula, Sai Sankar Jogendra; Enuganti, Sridevi; Bandi, Sujatha; Kakarla, Pranitha; Kuravadi, Raja Vardhan

2017-01-01

Adequate salivary flow is an important requisite in the maintenance of oral health. Salivary flow increases in response to both gustatory (taste) and mechanical (chewing) stimuli. Hence, the aim of the present study was to know the efficacy of commercially available chewing gums (sugar free and sugared) on salivary flow rate (SFR) and pH in caries-active and caries-free children. One hundred school children aged between 10 and 12 years were divided into two groups on the basis of their caries status into caries free and caries active. Unstimulated saliva was collected before start of the study. Both groups were subjected to three commercially available chewing gums (2 sugar free, 1 sugared) on consecutive days, and saliva was collected at intervals of 2 min (T2), 10 min (T10), and 30 min (T30). The pH and flow rate of saliva samples were measured before and specified time intervals after gum chewing. In both the groups, gum chewing increased the SFR, significantly at T2, and gradually declined at T30 which was significantly higher than baseline values. The pH raised significantly at T2 and gradually declined at T30 which was significantly higher than baseline values with sugar-free gums, but with sugared gums, the pH raised slightly at T2 and dropped significantly at T30. However, no statistically significant differences in pH and flow rate were noticed in both the groups. Chewing of sugar-free gums in both caries-active and caries-free children may aid in reducing the incidence of dental caries.

Temperate tree species show identical response in tree water deficit but different sensitivities in sap flow to summer soil drying.

PubMed

Brinkmann, Nadine; Eugster, Werner; Zweifel, Roman; Buchmann, Nina; Kahmen, Ansgar

2016-12-01

Temperate forests are expected to be particularly vulnerable to drought and soil drying because they are not adapted to such conditions and perform best in mesic environments. Here we ask (i) how sensitively four common temperate tree species (Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Acer pseudoplatanus and Fraxinus excelsior) respond in their water relations to summer soil drying and seek to determine (ii) if species-specific responses to summer soil drying are related to the onset of declining water status across the four species. Throughout 2012 and 2013 we determined tree water deficit (TWD) as a proxy for tree water status from recorded stem radius changes and monitored sap flow rates with sensors on 16 mature trees studied in the field at Lägeren, Switzerland. All tree species responded equally in their relative maximum TWD to the onset of declining soil moisture. This implies that the water supply of all tree species was affected by declining soil moisture and that none of the four species was able to fully maintain its water status, e.g., by access to alternative water sources in the soil. In contrast we found strong and highly species-specific responses of sap flow to declining soil moisture with the strongest decline in P. abies (92%), followed by F. sylvatica (53%) and A. pseudoplatanus (48%). F. excelsior did not significantly reduce sap flow. We hypothesize the species-specific responses in sap flow to declining soil moisture that occur despite a simultaneous increase in relative TWD in all species reflect how fast these species approach critical levels of their water status, which is most likely influenced by species-specific traits determining the hydraulic properties of the species tree. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hydrogeology of parts of the Central Platte and Lower Loup Natural Resources Districts, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peckenpaugh, J.M.; Dugan, J.T.

1983-01-01

Water-level declines of at least 15 feet have occurred in this heavily irrigated area of central Nebraska since the 1930's, and potential for additonal declines is high. To test the effects of additional irrigation development on water levels and streamflow , computer programs were developed that represent the surface-water system, soil zone, and saturated zone. A two-dimensional, finite-difference ground-water flow model of the 3,374 square-mile study area was developed and calibrated using steady-state and transient conditions. Three management alternatives were examined. First, 125,000 acre-feet of water would be diverted annually from the Platte River. During a water year in which flows are similar to those in 1957, months of zero streamflow at Grand Island increased from the historical 2, to 7. After 5 years of such low flows, in 36 nodes (997.4 acres per node) water levels declined more than 5 feet, with a maximum decline of 10.7 feet. A second alternative would allow no new ground-water development after 1980. The third alternative would allow irrigable but unirrigated land to be developed at an annual rate of 2, 5, and 8 percent and to apply irrigation water at 80, 100, and 120 percent of consumptive irrigation requirements. The maximum projected declines by 2020 are 119 and 139 feet, respectively, for the second and third alternatives. (USGS)

Breakdown characteristics of atmospheric dielectric barrier discharge in gas flow condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Zhihui; Yan, Huijie; Wang, Yuying; Liu, Yidi; Guo, Hongfei; Ren, Chunsheng

2018-05-01

Experimental investigations of the breakdown characteristics of plate-to-plate dielectric barrier discharge excited by an AC source at different gas flow conditions are carried out. The ignition voltage for the appearance of the very first discharge filament and the breakdown voltage in each discharge half cycle in continuous operation are examined. As revealed by the results of the indoor air experiment, the ignition voltage manifests a monotonous increase with the increase in the gas flow rate, while the breakdown voltage has a marked decline at the low gas flow rate and increases slightly as the gas flow rate is higher than 10 m/s. As regards the obvious decreases in the ignition voltage and breakdown voltage, the decrease in the humidity with the increase in the gas flow rate plays a dominant role. As regards the increase in breakdown voltage, the memory effect from the preceding discharge is considered. The losses of metastable particles, together with particles having high translational energy in the gas flow, are considered to be the most critical factors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bodvarsson, G.S.; Pruess, K.; Stefansson, V.

A detailed three-dimensional well-by-well model of the East Olkaria geothermal field in Kenya has been developed. The model matches reasonably well the flow rate and enthalpy data from all wells, as well as the overall pressure decline in the reservoir. The model is used to predict the generating capacity of the field, well decline, enthalpy behavior, the number of make-up wells needed and the effects of injection on well performance and overall reservoir depletion. 26 refs., 10 figs.

Dehydration affects cerebral blood flow but not its metabolic rate for oxygen during maximal exercise in trained humans.

PubMed

Trangmar, Steven J; Chiesa, Scott T; Stock, Christopher G; Kalsi, Kameljit K; Secher, Niels H; González-Alonso, José

2014-07-15

Intense exercise is associated with a reduction in cerebral blood flow (CBF), but regulation of CBF during strenuous exercise in the heat with dehydration is unclear. We assessed internal (ICA) and common carotid artery (CCA) haemodynamics (indicative of CBF and extra-cranial blood flow), middle cerebral artery velocity (MCA Vmean), arterial-venous differences and blood temperature in 10 trained males during incremental cycling to exhaustion in the heat (35°C) in control, dehydrated and rehydrated states. Dehydration reduced body mass (75.8 ± 3 vs. 78.2 ± 3 kg), increased internal temperature (38.3 ± 0.1 vs. 36.8 ± 0.1°C), impaired exercise capacity (269 ± 11 vs. 336 ± 14 W), and lowered ICA and MCA Vmean by 12-23% without compromising CCA blood flow. During euhydrated incremental exercise on a separate day, however, exercise capacity and ICA, MCA Vmean and CCA dynamics were preserved. The fast decline in cerebral perfusion with dehydration was accompanied by increased O2 extraction (P < 0.05), resulting in a maintained cerebral metabolic rate for oxygen (CMRO2). In all conditions, reductions in ICA and MCA Vmean were associated with declining cerebral vascular conductance, increasing jugular venous noradrenaline, and falling arterial carbon dioxide tension (P aCO 2) (R(2) ≥ 0.41, P ≤ 0.01) whereas CCA flow and conductance were related to elevated blood temperature. In conclusion, dehydration accelerated the decline in CBF by decreasing P aCO 2 and enhancing vasoconstrictor activity. However, the circulatory strain on the human brain during maximal exercise does not compromise CMRO2 because of compensatory increases in O2 extraction. © 2014 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Physiological Society.

Dehydration affects cerebral blood flow but not its metabolic rate for oxygen during maximal exercise in trained humans

PubMed Central

Trangmar, Steven J; Chiesa, Scott T; Stock, Christopher G; Kalsi, Kameljit K; Secher, Niels H; González-Alonso, José

2014-01-01

Intense exercise is associated with a reduction in cerebral blood flow (CBF), but regulation of CBF during strenuous exercise in the heat with dehydration is unclear. We assessed internal (ICA) and common carotid artery (CCA) haemodynamics (indicative of CBF and extra-cranial blood flow), middle cerebral artery velocity (MCA Vmean), arterial–venous differences and blood temperature in 10 trained males during incremental cycling to exhaustion in the heat (35°C) in control, dehydrated and rehydrated states. Dehydration reduced body mass (75.8 ± 3 vs. 78.2 ± 3 kg), increased internal temperature (38.3 ± 0.1 vs. 36.8 ± 0.1°C), impaired exercise capacity (269 ± 11 vs. 336 ± 14 W), and lowered ICA and MCA Vmean by 12–23% without compromising CCA blood flow. During euhydrated incremental exercise on a separate day, however, exercise capacity and ICA, MCA Vmean and CCA dynamics were preserved. The fast decline in cerebral perfusion with dehydration was accompanied by increased O2 extraction (P < 0.05), resulting in a maintained cerebral metabolic rate for oxygen (CMRO2). In all conditions, reductions in ICA and MCA Vmean were associated with declining cerebral vascular conductance, increasing jugular venous noradrenaline, and falling arterial carbon dioxide tension () (R2 ≥ 0.41, P ≤ 0.01) whereas CCA flow and conductance were related to elevated blood temperature. In conclusion, dehydration accelerated the decline in CBF by decreasing and enhancing vasoconstrictor activity. However, the circulatory strain on the human brain during maximal exercise does not compromise CMRO2 because of compensatory increases in O2 extraction. PMID:24835170

Simulation of groundwater flow and pumping scenarios for 1900–2050 near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fine, Jason M.; Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

2017-10-31

Groundwater withdrawals from the Upper Cretaceous-age Middendorf aquifer in South Carolina have created a large, regional cone of depression in the potentiometric surface of the Middendorf aquifer in Charleston and Berkeley Counties, South Carolina. Groundwater-level declines of as much as 249 feet have been observed in wells over the past 125 years and are a result of groundwater use for public water supply, irrigation, and private industry. To address the concerns of users of the Middendorf aquifer, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Mount Pleasant Waterworks (MPW), recalibrated an existing groundwater-flow model to incorporate additional groundwater-use and water-level data since 2008. This recalibration process consisted of a technique of parameter estimation that uses regularized inversion and employs “pilot points” for spatial hydraulic property characterization. The groundwater-flow system of the Coastal Plain physiographic province of South Carolina and parts of Georgia and North Carolina was simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference computer code MODFLOW-2000.After the model recalibration, the following six predictive water-management scenarios were created to simulate potential changes in groundwater flow and groundwater-level conditions in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area: Scenario 1—maximize MPW reverse-osmosis plant capacity by increasing groundwater withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), which was the amount withdrawn in 2015, to 8.58 Mgal/d; Scenario 2—same as Scenario 1, but with the addition of a 0.5 Mgal/d supply well in the Middendorf aquifer near Moncks Corner, South Carolina; Scenario 3—same as Scenario 1, but with the addition of a 1.5 Mgal/d supply well in the Middendorf aquifer near Moncks Corner, South Carolina; Scenario 4—maximize MPW well capacity by increasing withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 Mgal/d (in 2015) to 10.16 Mgal/d; Scenario 5—minimize MPW surface-water purchase from the Charleston Water System by adding supply wells and increasing withdrawals from the Middendorf aquifer from 3.9 Mgal/d (in 2015) to 12.16 Mgal/d; and Scenario 6—same as Scenario 1, but with he addition of quarterly model stress periods to simulate seasonal variations in the groundwater withdrawals. Results from the simulations indicated further decline of groundwater levels creating cones of depressions near pumping wells in the Middendorf aquifer in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area between 2015 and 2050 for all six scenarios.Simulation results from Scenario 1 showed an average decline of about 150 feet in the groundwater levels of the MPW production wells. Simulated hydrographs for two area observation wells illustrate the gradual decline in groundwater levels with overall changes in water-level altitudes of –92 and –33 feet, respectively. Simulated groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field declined 121 feet between 2015 and 2050.Scenarios 2 and 3 have the same pumping rates as Scenario 1 for the MPW production wells; however, a single hypothetical pumping well was added in the Middendorf aquifer near the town of Moncks Corner, South Carolina. This hypothetical pumping well has a withdrawal rate of 0.5 Mgal/d for Scenario 2 and 1.5 Mgal/d for Scenario 3. A comparison to the 2050 Scenario 1 simulation indicates groundwater altitudes for Scenarios 2 and Scenario 3 are 3 feet and 8 feet lower, respectively, at the MPW production wells.Scenario 4 simulates the maximum pumping capacity of 10.16 Mgal/d for the MPW network of production wells. Simulated 2050 groundwater altitudes for this simulation declined to –359 feet. Simulated hydrographs for two observation wells show groundwater-level declines of 116 and 41 feet, respectively. Simulated differences in groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field indicate a water-level decline of 164 feet between 2015 and 2050.Scenario 5 is a modification of Scenario 4 with the addition of two new MPW production wells. For this scenario, the MPW network of production wells were simulated the same as in Scenario 4, but withdrawals from the two new production wells were added in 2020. Simulated 2050 groundwater altitudes for this simulation declined to – 405 feet. Simulated hydrographs for two observation wells show groundwater-level declines of 143 and 51 feet, respectively. Simulated groundwater altitudes at a hypothetical observation well located in the MPW well field declined 199 feet between 2015 and 2050.Scenario 6 is a modification of Scenario 1, in which 140 additional quarterly stress periods were added to simulate MPW seasonal demands. Simulated groundwater altitudes for Scenario 6 declined to –353 feet during 2050. For Scenario 6, simulated hydrographs for two observation wells and the hypothetical observation well show similar groundwater-level declines as seen in Scenario 1, but with seasonal fluctuations of as much as 56 feet in the hypothetical observation well.Water budgets for the model area immediately surrounding Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, were calculated for 2015 and for 2050. The water budget for 2015 is equal for all of the scenarios because it represents the year prior to the hypothetical pumping beginning in 2016. The largest flow component in the 2015 water budget for the Mount Pleasant area is discharge to wells at a rate of 4.17 Mgal/d. Additionally, 0.23 Mgal/d flows laterally out of the Middendorf aquifer in this area of the model due to the regional horizontal hydraulic gradient. Flow into this zone consists predominantly of lateral flow within the Middendorf aquifer at 4.08 Mgal/d. Additionally, 0.02 Mgal/d is released into this zone from aquifer storage. Vertically, 0.06 Mgal/d flows down from the Middendorf confining unit located above the Middendorf aquifer, and 0.25 Mgal/d flows up from the Cape Fear confining unit below.The largest flow component in the 2050 water budget for all six scenarios is discharge to wells in the Mount Pleasant area at rates between 8.89 and 12.47 Mgal/d. Flow into this zone consists mostly of lateral flow between 8.47 and 11.77 Mgal/d within the Middendorf aquifer. Between 0.003 and 0.46 Mgal/d is released into this zone from aquifer storage. Between 0.004 and 0.15 Mgal/d flows laterally out of this zone into adjacent areas of the Middendorf aquifer due to the regional horizontal hydraulic gradient. Finally, between 0.15 and 0.22 Mgal/d flows vertically into this zone from confining units above and below the Middendorf aquifer.

Groundwater status and trends for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Erick R.; Snyder, Daniel T.; Haynes, Jonathan V.; Waibel, Michael S.

2012-01-01

Well information and groundwater-level measurements for the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, were compiled from data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and seven other organizations. From the full set of about 60,000 wells and 450,000 water-level measurements a subset of 761 wells within the aquifers of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) then was used to develop a simple linear groundwater-level trend map for 1968–2009. The mean of the trends was a decline of 1.9 feet per year (ft/yr), with 72 percent of the water levels in wells declining. Rates of declines greater than 1.0 ft/yr were measured in 50 percent of wells, declines greater than 2.0 ft/yr in 38 percent of wells, declines greater than 4.0 ft/yr in 29 percent of wells, and declines greater than 8.0 ft/yr in 4 percent of wells. Water-level data were used to identify groups of wells with similar hydraulic heads and temporal trends to delineate areas of overall similar groundwater conditions. Discontinuities in hydraulic head between well groups were used to help infer the presence of barriers to groundwater flow such as changes in lithology or the occurrence of folds and faults. In areas without flow barriers, dissimilarities in response of well groups over time resulted from the formation of groundwater mounds caused by recharge from irrigation or regions of decline caused by pumping. The areas of focus for this analysis included the Umatilla area, Oregon, and the Palouse Slope/eastern Yakima Fold Belt in the Columbia Basin Ground Water Management Area (GWMA) consisting of Adams, Franklin, Grant, and Lincoln Counties, Washington. In the Umatilla area, water levels from 286 wells were used to identify multiple areas of high hydraulic gradient that indicate vertical and horizontal barriers to groundwater flow. These barriers divide the groundwater-flow system into several compartments with varying degrees of interconnection. Horizontal flow barriers commonly correspond to mapped geologic structure and result in horizontal hydraulic gradients that progressively become steeper from north to south corresponding to an increase in structural complexity that may be impeding recharge from the uplands into the heavily developed areas. Most CRBG aquifers in the Umatilla area are declining and since 1970, cumulative declines range from about 100 to 300 feet. Significant vertical hydraulic gradients are documented for relatively small areas near Umatilla, and since the 1970s, downward vertical gradients in these areas have been increasing as hydraulic heads in the deeper units have declined. The absence of vertical gradients over much of the area may be a consequence of flow through commingling wells that results in the equilibration of the heads between aquifers. On the Palouse Slope in the central GWMA, large groundwater declines occurred during 1968–2009 along a north-south swath in the middle of the region. An analysis of 1,195 wells along major flow paths and through the area of persistent groundwater-level declines indicates that barriers to flow are not as evident in this area as in Umatilla. This is consistent with the geologic interpretation of the Palouse Slope as being a gently folded structure created by voluminous sheet flows of CRBG lavas. Groundwater discharge into the sediment-filled coulees, where the upper aquifers are intersected at land surface by incised canyons, is proposed as an alternative to explain local steepening of the hydraulic gradient along the Palouse Slope previously attributed to the presence of a groundwater dam. Comparison of generalized potentiometric surface maps developed for pre-development conditions and post-2000 conditions indicate that pre-development groundwater flow was from the uplands toward the Columbia and Snake River and that post-2000 flow patterns in the area are controlled by irrigation practices that have resulted in broad regions of elevated or depressed hydraulic head. In some cases, irrigation-related changes in head have reversed groundwater flow directions. Evidence of significant vertical hydraulic gradients exists, although much of the aquifer thickness is affected by commingling of wells. The effect of commingling and its relative contribution to problems related to groundwater-level declines remains unclear.

Myocardial perfusion characteristics during machine perfusion for heart transplantation.

PubMed

Peltz, Matthias; Cobert, Michael L; Rosenbaum, David H; West, LaShondra M; Jessen, Michael E

2008-08-01

Optimal parameters for machine perfusion preservation of hearts prior to transplantation have not been determined. We sought to define regional myocardial perfusion characteristics of a machine perfusion device over a range of conditions in a large animal model. Dog hearts were connected to a perfusion device (LifeCradle, Organ Transport Systems, Inc, Frisco, TX) and cold perfused at differing flow rates (1) at initial device startup and (2) over the storage interval. Myocardial perfusion was determined by entrapment of colored microspheres. Myocardial oxygen consumption (MVO(2)) was estimated from inflow and outflow oxygen differences. Intra-myocardial lactate was determined by (1)H magnetic resonance spectroscopy. MVO(2) and tissue perfusion increased up to flows of 15 mL/100 g/min, and the ratio of epicardial:endocardial perfusion remained near 1:1. Perfusion at lower flow rates and when low rates were applied during startup resulted in decreased capillary flow and greater non-nutrient flow. Increased tissue perfusion correlated with lower myocardial lactate accumulation but greater edema. Myocardial perfusion is influenced by flow rates during device startup and during the preservation interval. Relative declines in nutrient flow at low flow rates may reflect greater aortic insufficiency. These factors may need to be considered in clinical transplant protocols using machine perfusion.

Extraction of long-chain fatty acids in isolated rat heart during acute low-flow ischemia.

PubMed

Richter, W S; Fischer, S; Ernst, N; Munz, D L

2001-07-01

Although beta-oxidation of fatty acids is suppressed rapidly during ischemia, the behavior of fatty acid extraction at different flow rates is incompletely understood. This study assessed the relationship between flow and extraction of (123)I-iodophenylpentadecanoic acid (IPPA) in the isolated heart model, especially at low flow. Isolated hearts from male Wistar rats (n = 15) were subjected to retrograde perfusion with constant flow (Krebs Henseleit solution containing 10 mmol/L glucose). A latex balloon in the left ventricle allowed isovolumetric contractions and ventricular pressure measurements. The extraction of (123)I-IPPA was assessed with the indicator dilution technique and (99m)Tc-albumin as the intravascular reference. The flow was either increased from the control flow (8 mL/min) until 300% or reduced until 10%. (123)I-IPPA extraction was measured three times before and 10 min after flow alteration. The tracer uptake was estimated from the product of net extraction and flow. The mean (123)I-IPPA extraction at the control flow (third measurement) was 51.6% +/- 2.8%. Between flow rates of approximately 25% and 300%, (123)I-IPPA extraction increased exponentially at decreasing flow rates. At flow rates < or =25% of the control flow, (123)I-IPPA extraction was exponentially higher than predicted. (123)I-IPPA uptake and flow changed largely in parallel. During low flow, the rate-pressure product showed the expected decline (perfusion-contraction matching). The extraction of (123)I-IPPA is preserved and slightly increased (relative to flow) during acute low-flow ischemia.

Groundwater Conditions During 2009 and Changes in Groundwater Levels from 1984 to 2009, Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, Daniel T.; Haynes, Jonathan V.

2010-01-01

Groundwater elevations in three basalt units and one unconsolidated hydrogeologic unit in the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System were measured and evaluated to provide a regional overview of groundwater conditions in spring 2009. Water levels for the Saddle Mountains unit, the Wanapum unit, the Grande Ronde unit, and for the overlying Overburden unit were measured in 1,752 wells during spring 2009 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and 10 other Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies, including 66 wells located and measured by the USGS specifically for this study. These data were analyzed to determine the presence of spatial correlation of groundwater levels with distance and direction from each other. Groundwater flow in the Palouse Slope structural region showed evidence of being more continuous relative to groundwater flow in the Yakima Fold Belt, where the geologic complexity may contribute to compartmentalization of groundwater flow. This information was used to interpolate the generalized groundwater elevations for each of the basalt hydrogeologic units and to provide information on regional flow. Water-level change maps were constructed for the three basalt hydrogeologic units and the Overburden (unconsolidated) unit. Groundwater levels measured in spring 1984 and 2009 in 470 wells were compared. Small to moderate groundwater-level declines were measured in most wells, although declines greater than 100 ft and as great as 300 ft were measured in many wells. Essentially unchanged groundwater levels were measured in other wells. Of the wells measured in 1984 and 2009, water levels declined in 83 percent of the wells, and declines greater than 25 ft were measured in 29 percent of all wells. The groundwater-level changes were greatest in the deeper hydrogeologic units. Mean groundwater-level changes ranged from a 7 ft decline for the Overburden unit to a 51 ft decline for the Grande Ronde unit. The average annual rates of groundwater-level change for the 25-year period ranged from a 0.3 ft/yr decline for the Overburden unit to a 2.0 ft/yr decline for the Grande Ronde unit. Groundwater level declines were identified throughout the Columbia Plateau, but areas with large and widespread declines were located in the central northern part of the study area, in parts of the Yakima River basin in Washington, in the Pullman-Moscow area in Washington and Idaho, and in parts of the Umatilla River basin in Oregon. These declines are in areas known to rely heavily on groundwater for irrigation and other uses.

Regional evaluation of hydrologic factors and effects of pumping, St Peter-Jordan aquifer, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkart, M.R.; Buchmiller, Robert

1990-01-01

Pumping has caused changes in the flow system that include regional declines in the potentiometric surface of the aquifer. Simulation indicates that pumping through 1980 increased net vertical leakage into the aquifer to about double the predevelopment rate. Discharge across lateral boundaries has been substantially reduced or reversed by pumping. Aquifer storage provided about one-third of the water required to supply pumping in the 1970's. Simulation of future conditions, assuming no increase in pumping rates, indicates that the rate of decline in water levels will decrease by the year 2020. As equilibrium with pumping is approached in 2020, 75 percent of the pumpage will be balanced by vertical leakage, eight percent by water released from aquifer storage, and 17 percent by increases in boundary recharge or decreases in boundary discharge. Future pumping at an increasing rate of about 10 percent per decade of the average pumping rate in 1975 will require about one and one-half times the vertical leakage of the 1971-1980 period and about fivetimes the net inflow from lateral boundaries; however, the rate of water released from aquifer storage will be about half the 1970's rate. Under these conditions, the head in the aquifer will continue to decline at an almost constant rate until 2020.

Flow management and fish density regulate salmonid recruitment and adult size in tailwaters across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Budy, Phaedra E.

2015-01-01

The mean lengths of adult rainbow and brown trout were influenced by similar flow and catch metrics. Length in both species was positively correlated with high annual flow but declined in tailwaters with high daily fluctuations in flow, high catch rates of conspecifics, and when large cohorts recruited to adult size. Whereas brown trout did not respond to the proportion of water allocated between seasons, rainbow trout length increased in rivers that released more water during winter than in spring. Rainbow trout length was primarily related to high catch rates of conspecifics, whereas brown trout length was mainly related to large cohorts recruiting to the adult size class. Species-specific responses to flow management are likely attributable to differences in seasonal timing of key life history events such as spawning, egg hatching, and fry emergence.

Effect of laughter on salivary flow rates and levels of chromogranin A in young adults and elderly people.

PubMed

Toda, Masahiro; Ichikawa, Hiroe

2012-11-01

Salivary chromogranin A (CgA) levels and salivary flow rates were measured to evaluate the stress relief effect of laughter on the young and the elderly. Thirty healthy volunteers (15 aged 20-25 years; 15 aged 62-83 years) performed a serial arithmetic task for 15 min and then watched a comedy video for 30 min. On a different day, as a control, they watched a non-humorous video after performing a task similar to the first one. Saliva samples were collected immediately before and after the arithmetic task, 30 min after completing the task (immediately after watching the film), and 30 min after watching the film (60 min after completing mental task). Salivary CgA levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. In the elderly group, salivary flow rates, which had declined by the end of the arithmetic task, were statistically significantly higher after watching the comedy video. In the young group, salivary CgA levels, which had increased by the end of the task, had statistically significantly declined after watching the comedy video. No such post-task changes were apparent in control results; in the young group, there was a statistically significant interprotocol difference in salivary CgA levels. These findings suggest that laughter may relieve stress, particularly in the young people.

A Day in the Life of the Suwannee River: Lagrangian Sampling of Process Rates Along the River Continuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, M. J.; Hensley, R. T.; Spangler, M.; Gooseff, M. N.

2017-12-01

A key organizing idea in stream ecology is the river continuum concept (RCC) which makes testable predictions about network-scale variation in metabolic and community attributes. Using high resolution (ca. 0.1 Hz) Lagrangian sampling of a wide suite of solutes - including nitrate, fDOM, dissolved oyxgen and specific conductance, we sampled the river continuum from headwaters to the sea in the Suwannee River (Florida, USA). We specifically sought to test two predictions that follow from the RCC: first, that changes in metabolism and hydraulics lead to progressive reduction in total N retention but greater diel variation with increasing stream order; and second, that variation in metabolic and nutrient processing rates is larger across stream orders than between low order streams. In addition to providing a novel test of theory, these measurements enabled new insights into the evolution of water quality through a complex landscape, in part because main-stem profiles were obtained for both high and historically low flow conditions. We observed strong evidence of metabolism and nutrient retention at low flow. Both the rate of uptake velocity and the mass retention per unit area declined with increasing stream order, and declined dramatically at high flow. Clear evidence for time varying retention (i.e., diel variation) was observed at low flow, but was masked or absent at high flow. In this geologically complex river - with alluvial, spring-fed, and blackwater headwater streams - variation across low-order streams was large, suggesting the presence of many river continuua across the network. This application of longitudinal sampling and inference underscores the utility of changing reference frames to draw new insights, but also highlights some of the challenges that need to be considered and, where possible, controlled.

Simulation of groundwater flow in the Edwards-Trinity and related aquifers in the Pecos County region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Brian R.; Bumgarner, Johnathan R.; Houston, Natalie A.; Foster, Adam L.

2014-01-01

The model was used to simulate groundwater-level altitudes resulting from prolonged pumping to evaluate sustainability of current and projected water-use demands. Each of three scenarios utilized a continuation of the calibrated model. Scenario 1 extended recent (2008) irrigation and nonirrigation pumping values for a 30-year period from 2010 to 2040. Projected groundwater-level changes in and around the Fort Stockton area under scenario 1 change little from current conditions, indicating that the groundwater system is near equilibrium with respect to recent (2008) pumping stress. Projected groundwater-level declines in the eastern part of the model area ranging from 5.0 to 15.0 feet are likely the result of nonequilibrium conditions associated with recent increases in pumping after a prolonged water-level recovery period of little or no pumping. Projected groundwater-level declines (from 15.0 to 31.0 feet) occurred in localized areas by the end of scenario 1 in the Leon-Belding area. Scenario 2 evaluated the effects of extended recent (2008) pumping rates as assigned in scenario 1 with year-round maximum permitted pumping rates in the Belding area. Results of scenario 2 are similar in water-level decline and extent as those of scenario 1. The extent of the projected groundwater-level decline in the range from 5.0 to 15.0 feet in the Leon-Belding irrigation area expanded slightly (about a 2-percent increase) from that of scenario 1. Maximum projected groundwater-level declines in the Leon-Belding irrigation area were approximately 31.3 feet in small isolated areas. Scenario 3 evaluated the effects of periodic increases in pumping rates over the 30-year extended period. Results of scenario 3 are similar to those of scenario 2 in terms of the areas of groundwater-level decline; however, the maximum projected groundwater-level decline increased to approximately 34.5 feet in the Leon-Belding area, and the extent of the decline was larger in area (about a 17-percent increase) than that of scenario 2. Additionally, the area of projected groundwater-level declines in the eastern part of the model area increased from that of scenario 2—two individual areas of decline coalesced into one larger area. The localized nature of the projected groundwater-level declines is a reflection of the high degree of fractured control on storage and hydraulic conductivity in the Edwards-Trinity aquifer. Additionally, the finding that simulated spring flow is highly dependent on the transient nature of hydraulic heads in the underlying aquifer indicates the importance of adequately understanding and characterizing the entire groundwater system.

Solar-Cycle Variation of Subsurface-Flow Divergence: A Proxy of Magnetic Activity?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komm, R.; Howe, R.; Hill, F.

2017-09-01

We study the solar-cycle variation of subsurface flows from the surface to a depth of 16 Mm. We have analyzed Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Dopplergrams with a ring-diagram analysis covering about 15 years and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Dopplergrams covering more than 6 years. After subtracting the average rotation rate and meridional flow, we have calculated the divergence of the horizontal residual flows from the maximum of Solar Cycle 23 through the declining phase of Cycle 24. The subsurface flows are mainly divergent at quiet regions and convergent at locations of high magnetic activity. The relationship is essentially linear between divergence and magnetic activity at all activity levels at depths shallower than about 10 Mm. At greater depths, the relationship changes sign at locations of high activity; the flows are increasingly divergent at locations with a magnetic activity index (MAI) greater than about 24 G. The flows are more convergent by about a factor of two during the rising phase of Cycle 24 than during the declining phase of Cycle 23 at locations of medium and high activity (about 10 to 40 G MAI) from the surface to at least 10 Mm. The subsurface divergence pattern of Solar Cycle 24 first appears during the declining phase of Cycle 23 and is present during the extended minimum. It appears several years before the magnetic pattern of the new cycle is noticeable in synoptic maps. Using linear regression, we estimate the amount of magnetic activity that would be required to generate the precursor pattern and find that it should be almost twice the amount of activity that is observed.

Bat reproduction declines when conditions mimic climate change projections for western North America.

PubMed

Adams, Rick A

2010-08-01

Climate change models predict that much of western North America is becoming significantly warmer and drier, resulting in overall reductions in availability of water for ecosystems. Herein, I demonstrate that significant declines in the reproductive success of female insectivorous bats occur in years when annual environmental conditions mimic the long-term predictions of regional climate change models. Using a data set gathered on bat populations from 1996 through 2008 along the Front Range of Colorado, I compare trends in population numbers and reproductive outcomes of six species of vespertilionid bats with data on mean annual high temperature, precipitation, snow pack, and stream discharge rates. I show that levels of precipitation and flow rates of small streams near maternity colonies is fundamentally tied to successful reproduction in female bats, particularly during the lactation phase. Across years that experienced greater than average mean temperatures with less than average precipitation and stream flow, bat populations responded by slight to profound reductions in reproductive output depending on the severity of drought conditions. In particular, reproductive outputs showed profound declines (32-51%) when discharge rates of the largest stream in the field area dropped below 7 m3/s, indicating a threshold response. Such sensitivity to environmental change portends severe impacts to regional bat populations if current scenarios for climate change in western North America are accurate. In addition, bats act as early-warning indicators of large-scale ecological effects resulting from further regional warming and drying trends currently at play in western North America.

Relationship between stirring rate and Reynolds number in the chaotically advected steady flow in a container with exactly counter-rotating lids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lackey, Tahirih C.; Sotiropoulos, Fotis

2006-05-01

We solve numerically the three-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations to simulate the flow in a cylindrical container of aspect ratio one with exactly counter-rotating lids for a range of Reynolds numbers for which the flow is steady and three dimensional (300⩽Re⩽850). In agreement with linear stability results [C. Nore et al., J. Fluid Mech. 511, 45 (2004)] we find steady, axisymmetric solutions for Re <300. For Re >300 the equatorial shear layer becomes unstable to steady azimuthal modes and a complex vortical flow emerges, which consists of cat's eye radial vortices at the shear layer and azimuthally inclined axial vortices. Upon the onset of the three-dimensional instability the Lagrangian dynamics of the flow become chaotic. A striking finding of our work is that there is an optimal Reynolds number at which the stirring rate in the chaotically advected flow is maximized. Above this Reynolds number, the integrable (unmixed) part of the flow begins to grow and the stirring rate is shown conclusively to decline. This finding is explained in terms of and appears to support a recently proposed theory of chaotic advection [I. Mezić, J. Fluid Mech. 431, 347 (2001)]. Furthermore, the calculated rate of decay of the stirring rate with Reynolds numbers is consistent with the Re-1/2 upper bound predicted by the theory.

Hydraulic characterization of overpressured tuffs in central Yucca Flat, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, Keith J.; Laczniak, Randell J.; Galloway, Devin L.

2005-01-01

A sequence of buried, bedded, air-fall tuffs has been used extensively as a host medium for underground nuclear tests detonated in the central part of Yucca Flat at the Nevada Test Site. Water levels within these bedded tuffs have been elevated hundreds of meters in areas where underground nuclear tests were detonated below the water table. Changes in the ground-water levels within these tuffs and changes in the rate and distribution of land-surface subsidence above these tuffs indicate that pore-fluid pressures have been slowly depressurizing since the cessation of nuclear testing in 1992. Declines in ground-water levels concurrent with regional land subsidence are explained by poroelastic deformation accompanying ground-water flow as fluids pressurized by underground nuclear detonations drain from the host tuffs into the overlying water table and underlying regional carbonate aquifer. A hydraulic conductivity of about 3 x 10-6 m/d and a specific storage of 9 x 10-6 m-1 are estimated using ground-water flow models. Cross-sectional and three-dimensional ground-water flow models were calibrated to measured water levels and to land-subsidence rates measured using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar. Model results are consistent and indicate that about 2 million m3 of ground water flowed from the tuffs to the carbonate rock as a result of pressurization caused by underground nuclear testing. The annual rate of inflow into the carbonate rock averaged about 0.008 m/yr between 1962 and 2005, and declined from 0.005 m/yr in 2005 to 0.0005 m/yr by 2300.

Peak expiratory flow rate in handloom weavers.

PubMed

Tiwari, R R; Zodpey, S P; Deshpande, S G; Vasudeo, N D

1998-04-01

The present cross-sectional study with a comparison group was carried out to investigate peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) in handloom weavers and to study relationship between reduction in PEFR with age, smoking, duration of cotton dust exposure and respiratory morbidity. This study include 319 handloom weavers and equal number of individuals (group matched for age and pair matched for sex) in comparison group. The decline in PEFR was significantly associated with advancing age, longer duration of exposure to cotton dust, tobacco smoking and presence of respiratory morbidity on univariate analysis, whereas on multivariate analysis longer duration of exposure to cotton dust and tobacco smoking was found to be non significant.

Modeling the Declining Positivity Rates for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Testing in New York State.

PubMed

Martin, Erika G; MacDonald, Roderick H; Smith, Lou C; Gordon, Daniel E; Lu, Tao; OʼConnell, Daniel A

2015-01-01

New York health care providers have experienced declining percentages of positive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) tests among patients. Furthermore, observed positivity rates are lower than expected on the basis of the national estimate that one-fifth of HIV-infected residents are unaware of their infection. We used mathematical modeling to evaluate whether this decline could be a result of declining numbers of HIV-infected persons who are unaware of their infection, a measure that is impossible to measure directly. A stock-and-flow mathematical model of HIV incidence, testing, and diagnosis was developed. The model includes stocks for uninfected, infected and unaware (in 4 disease stages), and diagnosed individuals. Inputs came from published literature and time series (2006-2009) for estimated new infections, newly diagnosed HIV cases, living diagnosed cases, mortality, and diagnosis rates in New York. Primary model outcomes were the percentage of HIV-infected persons unaware of their infection and the percentage of HIV tests with a positive result (HIV positivity rate). In the base case, the estimated percentage of unaware HIV-infected persons declined from 14.2% in 2006 (range, 11.9%-16.5%) to 11.8% in 2010 (range, 9.9%-13.1%). The HIV positivity rate, assuming testing occurred independent of risk, was 0.12% in 2006 (range, 0.11%-0.15%) and 0.11% in 2010 (range, 0.10%-0.13%). The observed HIV positivity rate was more than 4 times the expected positivity rate based on the model. HIV test positivity is a readily available indicator, but it cannot distinguish causes of underlying changes. Findings suggest that the percentage of unaware HIV-infected New Yorkers is lower than the national estimate and that the observed HIV test positivity rate is greater than expected if infected and uninfected individuals tested at the same rate, indicating that testing efforts are appropriately targeting undiagnosed cases.

Long-term monitoring data provide evidence of declining species richness in a river valued for biodiversity conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Mary C.; Hagler, Megan M.; Bumpers, Phillip M.; Wheeler, Kit; Wengerd, Seth J.; Freeman, Byron J.

2017-01-01

Free-flowing river segments provide refuges for many imperiled aquatic biota that have been extirpated elsewhere in their native ranges. These biodiversity refuges are also foci of conservation concerns because species persisting within isolated habitat fragments may be particularly vulnerable to local environmental change. We have analyzed long-term (14- and 20-y) survey data to assess evidence of fish species declines in two southeastern U.S. rivers where managers and stakeholders have identified potentially detrimental impacts of current and future land uses. The Conasauga River (Georgia and Tennessee) and the Etowah River (Georgia) form free-flowing headwaters of the extensively dammed Coosa River system. These rivers are valued in part because they harbor multiple species of conservation concern, including three federally endangered and two federally threatened fishes. We used data sets comprising annual surveys for fish species at multiple, fixed sites located at river shoals to analyze occupancy dynamics and temporal changes in species richness. Our analyses incorporated repeated site-specific surveys in some years to estimate and account for incomplete species detection, and test for species-specific (rarity, mainstem-restriction) and year-specific (elevated frequencies of low- or high-flow days) covariates on occupancy dynamics. In the Conasauga River, analysis of 26 species at 13 sites showed evidence of temporal declines in colonization rates for nearly all taxa, accompanied by declining species richness. Four taxa (including one federally endangered species) had reduced occupancy across the Conasauga study sites, with three of these taxa apparently absent for at least the last 5 y of the study. In contrast, a similar fauna of 28 taxa at 10 sites in the Etowah River showed no trends in species persistence, colonization, or occupancy. None of the tested covariates showed strong effects on persistence or colonization rates in either river. Previous studies and observations identified contaminants, nutrient loading, or changes in benthic habitat as possible causes for fish species declines in the Conasauga River. Our analysis provides baseline information that could be used to assess effectiveness of future management actions in the Conasauga or Etowah rivers, and illustrates the use of dynamic occupancy models to evaluate evidence of faunal decline from time-series data.

Anatomic and physiologic changes of the aging kidney.

PubMed

Karam, Zeina; Tuazon, Jennifer

2013-08-01

Aging is associated with structural and functional changes in the kidney. Structural changes include glomerulosclerosis, thickening of the basement membrane, increase in mesangial matrix, tubulointerstitial fibrosis and arteriosclerosis. Glomerular filtration rate is maintained until the fourth decade of life, after which it declines. Parallel reductions in renal blood flow occur with redistribution of blood flow from the cortex to the medulla. Other functional changes include an increase in glomerular basement permeability and decreased ability to dilute or concentrate urine. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hydraulic responses to extreme drought conditions in three co-dominant tree species in shallow soil over bedrock.

PubMed

Kukowski, Kelly R; Schwinning, Susanne; Schwartz, Benjamin F

2013-04-01

An important component of the hydrological niche involves the partitioning of water sources, but in landscapes characterized by shallow soils over fractured bedrock, root growth is highly constrained. We conducted a study to determine how physical constraints in the root zone affected the water use of three tree species that commonly coexist on the Edwards Plateau of central Texas; cedar elm (Ulmus crassifolia), live oak (Quercus fusiformis), and Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei). The year of the study was unusually dry; minimum predawn water potentials measured in August were -8 MPa in juniper, less than -8 MPa in elm, and -5 MPa in oak. All year long, species used nearly identical water sources, based on stable isotope analysis of stem water. Sap flow velocities began to decline simultaneously in May, but the rate of decline was fastest for oak and slowest for juniper. Thus, species partitioned water by time when they could not partition water by source. Juniper lost 15-30 % of its stem hydraulic conductivity, while percent loss for oak was 70-75 %, and 90 % for elm. There was no tree mortality in the year of the study, but 2 years later, after an even more severe drought in 2011, we recorded 34, 14, 6, and 1 % mortality among oak, elm, juniper, and Texas persimmon (Diospyros texana), respectively. Among the study species, mortality rates ranked in the same order as the rate of sap flow decline in 2009. Among the angiosperms, mortality rates correlated with wood density, lending further support to the hypothesis that species with more cavitation-resistant xylem are more susceptible to catastrophic hydraulic failure under acute drought.

Elevation in blood flow and shear rate prevents hyperglycemia-induced endothelial dysfunction in healthy subjects and those with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Greyling, Arno; Schreuder, Tim H A; Landman, Thijs; Draijer, Richard; Verheggen, Rebecca J H M; Hopman, Maria T E; Thijssen, Dick H J

2015-03-01

Hyperglycemia, commonly present after a meal, causes transient impairment in endothelial function. We examined whether increases in blood flow (BF) protect against the hyperglycemia-mediated decrease in endothelial function in healthy subjects and patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Ten healthy subjects and 10 age- and sex-matched patients with T2DM underwent simultaneous bilateral assessment of brachial artery endothelial function by means of flow-mediated dilation (FMD) using high-resolution echo-Doppler. FMD was examined before and 60, 120, and 150 min after a 75-g oral glucose challenge. We unilaterally manipulated BF by heating one arm between minute 30 and minute 60. Oral glucose administration caused a statistically significant, transient increase in blood glucose in both groups (P < 0.001). Forearm skin temperature, brachial artery BF, and shear rate significantly increased in the heated arm (P < 0.001), and to a greater extent compared with the nonheated arm in both groups (interaction effect P < 0.001). The glucose load caused a transient decrease in FMD% (P < 0.05), whereas heating significantly prevented the decline (interaction effect P < 0.01). Also, when correcting for changes in diameter and shear rate, we found that the hyperglycemia-induced decrease in FMD can be prevented by local heating (P < 0.05). These effects on FMD were observed in both groups. Our data indicate that nonmetabolically driven elevation in BF and shear rate can similarly prevent the hyperglycemia-induced decline in conduit artery endothelial function in healthy volunteers and in patients with type 2 diabetes. Additional research is warranted to confirm that other interventions that increase BF and shear rate equally protect the endothelium when challenged by hyperglycemia. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

A century of changing flows: Forest management changed flow magnitudes and warming advanced the timing of flow in a southwestern US river

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The continued provision of water from rivers in the southwestern United States to downstream cities, natural communities and species is at risk due to higher temperatures and drought conditions in recent decades. Snowpack and snowfall levels have declined, snowmelt and peak spring flows are arriving earlier, and summer flows have declined. Concurrent to climate change and variation, a century of fire suppression has resulted in dramatic changes to forest conditions, and yet, few studies have focused on determining the degree to which changing forests have altered flows. In this study, we evaluated changes in flow, climate, and forest conditions in the Salt River in central Arizona from 1914–2012 to compare and evaluate the effects of changing forest conditions and temperatures on flows. After using linear regression models to remove the influence of precipitation and temperature, we estimated that annual flows declined by 8–29% from 1914–1963, coincident with a 2-fold increase in basal area, a 2-3-fold increase in canopy cover, and at least a 10-fold increase in forest density within ponderosa pine forests. Streamflow volumes declined by 37–56% in summer and fall months during this period. Declines in climate-adjusted flows reversed at mid-century when spring and annual flows increased by 10–31% from 1964–2012, perhaps due to more winter rainfall. Additionally, peak spring flows occurred about 12 days earlier in this period than in the previous period, coincident with winter and spring temperatures that increased by 1–2°C. While uncertainties remain, this study adds to the knowledge gained in other regions that forest change has had effects on flow that were on par with climate variability and, in the case of mid-century declines, well before the influence of anthropogenic warming. Current large-scale forest restoration projects hold some promise of recovering seasonal flows. PMID:29176868

Computer simulation of reservoir depletion and oil flow from the Macondo well following the Deepwater Horizon blowout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hsieh, Paul

2010-01-01

This report describes the application of a computer model to simulate reservoir depletion and oil flow from the Macondo well following the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Reservoir and fluid data used for model development are based on (1) information released in BP's investigation report of the incident, (2) information provided by BP personnel during meetings in Houston, Texas, and (3) calibration by history matching to shut-in pressures measured in the capping stack during the Well Integrity Test. The model is able to closely match the measured shut-in pressures. In the simulation of the 86-day period from the blowout to shut in, the simulated reservoir pressure at the well face declines from the initial reservoir pressure of 11,850 pounds per square inch (psi) to 9,400 psi. After shut in, the simulated reservoir pressure recovers to a final value of 10,300 psi. The pressure does not recover back to the initial pressure owing to reservoir depletion caused by 86 days of oil discharge. The simulated oil flow rate declines from 63,600 stock tank barrels per day just after the Deepwater Horizon blowout to 52,600 stock tank barrels per day just prior to shut in. The simulated total volume of oil discharged is 4.92 million stock tank barrels. The overall uncertainty in the simulated flow rates and total volume of oil discharged is estimated to be + or - 10 percent.

Landslide initiation, runout, and deposition within clearcuts and old-growth forests of Alaska.

Treesearch

A.C. Johnson; D.N. Swanston; K.E. McGee

2000-01-01

More than 300 landslides and debris flows were triggered by an October 1993 storm on Prince of Wales Island, southeast Alaska. Initiation, runout, and deposition patterns of landslides that occurred within clearcuts, second-growth, and old-growth forests were examined. Blowdown and snags, associated with cedar decline and "normal" rates of mortality, were...

St. Lawrence River Freeze-Up Forecast Procedure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Assel, R. A.

A standard operating procedure (SOP) is presented for calculating the date of freeze-up on the St. Lawrence River at Massena, N.Y. The SOP is based on two empirical temperature decline equations developed for Kingston, Ontario, and Massena, N.Y., respectively. Input data needed to forecast freeze-up consist of the forecast December flow rate and…

Ceramic pot filters lifetime study in coastal Guatemala.

PubMed

Salvinelli, C; Elmore, A C; García Hernandez, B R; Drake, K D

2017-02-01

Ceramic pot filters (CPFs) are an effective means of household water treatment, but the characterization of CPF lifetimes is ongoing. This paper describes a lifetime field study in Guatemala which was made possible by a collaboration between researchers, CPF-using households, and local non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Disinfection data were collected periodically for two years using field coliform enumeration kits as were flow rate data with the assistance of NGO staff. Consumer acceptance was characterized by surveying householders in the four subject villages at the beginning and end of the study. Flow rate data showed that average CPF flow rates decreased below the recommended minimum of 1 L h -1 after 10 months of use; however, the survey results indicated that the consumers were tolerant of the lower flow rates, and it is reasonable to assume that the daily volume of treated water can be readily increased by refilling the CPFs more frequently. Of greater concern was the finding that disinfection efficacy decreased below the recommended bacterial reduction after 14 months of use because it would not be obvious to users that effectiveness had declined. Finally, the follow-up visits by the researchers and the NGO staff appeared to increase consumer acceptance of the CPFs.

Water quality in simulated eutrophic shallow lakes in the presence of periphyton under different flow conditions.

PubMed

Chen, Shu; Yang, Guolu; Lu, Jing; Wang, Lei

2018-02-01

Although the effects of periphyton on water quality and its relationship with flow conditions have been studied by researchers, our understanding about their combined action in eutrophic shallow lakes is poor. In this research, four aquatic model ecosystems with different water circulation rates and hydraulic conditions were constructed to investigate the effect of periphyton and flow condition on water quality. The concentrations of NH 4 + , TP, and chlorophyll-a and flow conditions were determined. The results show that, as a result of the rising nutrient level at the early stage and the decline in the lower limit, the presence of periphyton can make the ecosystem adaptable to a wider range of nutrients concentration. In terms of the flow condition, the circulation rate and hydraulic condition are influential factors for aquatic ecosystem. Higher circulation rate in the ecosystem, on one hand, facilitates the metabolism by accelerating nutrient cycling which is beneficial to water quality; on the other hand, high circulation rate leads to the nutrient lower limit rising which is harmful to water quality improvement. At low velocities, slight differences in hydraulic conditions, vertical velocity gradient and turbulence intensity gradient could affect the quantity of phytoplankton. Our study suggests that, considering environmental effect of periphyton, flow conditions and their combined action is essential for water quality improvement and ecological restoration in eutrophic shallow lakes.

Channels and valleys on Mars: Cold climate features formed as a result of a thickening cryosphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carr, M.H.

1996-01-01

Large flood channels, valley networks, and a variety of features attributed to the action of ground ice indicate that Mars emerged from heavy bombardment around 3.8Gyr ago, with an inventory of water at the surface equivalent to at least a few hundred meters spread over the whole planet, as compared with 3 km for the Earth. The surface water resided primarily in a porous, kilometers thick, megaregolith created by the high impact rates. At the end of heavy bombardment a rapid decline in erosion rates by a factor of 1000 suggests a major change in the global climate. It is proposed that at this time the climate became similar to today's and that this climate has been maintained throughout the rest of Mars' history. The various drainage features represent an adjustment of the distribution of water to the surface relief inherited from the period of heavy bombardment and to a thickening of the cryosphere as the heat flow declined. The valley networks formed mostly at the end of heavy bombardment when erosion rates were high and climatic conditions permitted an active water cycle. They continued to form after heavy bombardment when the cryosphere started to form by a combination of episodic flooding and mass-wasting aided by the presence of liquid water at shallow depths. As the cryosphere thickened with declining heat flow, water could no longer easily access the surface and the rate of valley formation declined. Hydrostatic pressures built below the cryosphere. Eruptions of groundwater became more catastrophic and massive floods resulted, mainly in upper Hesperian time. Flood sources were preferentially located in low-lying, low-latitude areas where the cryosphere was thin, or near volcanoes where a thinner than typical cryosphere is also expected. Floods caused a drawdown in the global water table so that few formed in the second half of Mars' history. The floodwaters pooled in low-lying areas, mostly in the northern plains. Some of the water may still be present as thick ice deposits, some has been lost to space, particularly during periods of high obliquity. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Theoretical Investigation For The Effect of Fuel Quality on Gas Turbine Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AbdulRazzak khudair, Omar; Alwan Abass, Khetam; Saadi Abed, Noor; Hussain Ali, Khalid; AbdulAziz, Saad; Chlaib Shaboot, Ali

2018-05-01

Gas turbine engine power generation is declined dramatically because of the reduction in thermodynamic parameters as a work of turbine, compressor ratio, compressor work, and air mass flow rate and fuel consumption. There are two main objectives of this work, the first is related with the effect of fuel kinds and their quality on the operation of fuel flow divider and its performance specifically gear pump displacement and fuel flow rate to the combustion chambers of gas power plant. AL-DORA gas turbine power plant 35MW was chosen to predict these effects on its performance MATLAB Software program is used to perform thermodynamic calculations. Fuel distribution stage before the process of combustion and as a result of the kind and its quality, chemical reaction will occur between the fuel and the parts of the gear system of each pump of the flow divider, which causes the erosion of the internal pump wall and the teeth of the gear system, thus hampering the pump operation in terms of fuel discharge. The discharge of fuel form the eight external gates of flow divider is decreased and varied when going to the combustion chambers, so that, flow divider does not give reliable mass flow rate due to absence of accurate pressure in each of eight exit pipes. The second objective deals with the stage of fuel combustion process inside the combustion chamber. A comparative study based upon performance parameters, such as specific fuel consumption for gas and gasoil and power generation. Fuel poor quality causes incomplete combustion and increased its consumption, so that combustion products are interacted with the surface of the turbine blades, causing the erosion and create surface roughness of the blade and disruption of gas flow. As a result of this situation, turbulence flow of these gases will increase causing the separation of gas boundary layers over the suction surface of the blade. Therefore the amount of extracted gas will decrease causing retreat work done by turbine, as a result decline of power and gas turbine power plant efficiency causing the drop in the level of electric generation. The fuel quality is found to be a strong function of specific fuel consumption and its effects on the power generation and the efficiency of the gas turbine power plants and hence, the cycle performance shifts towards favorable conditions.

Trends in Rainbow Trout recruitment, abundance, survival, and growth during a boom-and-bust cycle in a tailwater fishery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Yard, Micheal D.; Kennedy, Theodore A.

2017-01-01

Data from a large-scale mark-recapture study was used in an open population model to determine the cause for long-term trends in growth and abundance of a Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss population in the tailwater of Glen Canyon Dam, AZ. Reduced growth affected multiple life stages and processes causing negative feedbacks that regulated the abundance of the population, including: higher mortality of larger fish; lower rates of recruitment (young of year) in years when growth was reduced; and lower rates of sexual maturation the following year. High and steady flows during spring and summer of 2011 resulted in very large recruitment event. The population declined 10-fold by 2016 due a combination of lower recruitment and reduced survival of larger trout. Survival rates for trout ≥ 225 mm in 2014, 2015, and 2016 were 11%, 21%, and 22% lower than average survival rates between 2012 and 2013, respectively. Abundance at the end of the study would have been three- to five-fold higher had survival rates for larger trout remained at the elevated levels estimated for 2012 and 2013. Growth declined between 2012 and 2014 owing to reduced prey availability, which led to very poor fish condition by fall of 2014 (~0.9-0.95). Poor condition in turn resulted in low survival rates of larger fish during fall of 2014 and winter of 2015, which contributed to the population collapse. In Glen Canyon, large recruitment events driven by high flows can lead to increases in the population that cannot be sustained due to limitations in prey supply. In the absence of being able to regulate prey supply, flows which reduce the probability of large recruitment events can be used to avoid boom-and-bust population cycles. Our study demonstrates that mark-recapture is a very informative approach for understanding the dynamics of tailwater trout populations.

Secondary wastewater polishing with ultrafiltration membranes for unrestricted reuse: fouling and flushing modeling.

PubMed

Gillerman, Leonid; Bick, Amos; Buriakovsky, Nisan; Oron, Gideon

2006-11-01

The effects of operating parameters such astransmembrane pressure, retentate, and recirculation volumetric flow rates on the productivity of an ultrafiltration membrane were studied using field data and development of a management model. Correlation equations for predicting the volumetric permeate flow rates were derived from general membrane blocking laws and experimental data. The experimental data were obtained from a pilot study carried out in the Arad wastewater treatment system (a pilot plant operating in feed and bleed operation mode) located several kilometers west of the City of Arad, Israel. Correlation predictions were confirmed with the independent experimental results. The results enabled us to develop a mathematical expression accurately describing the decline in flux due to fouling.

Current and future water issues in the Oldman River Basin of Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Byrne, J; Kienzle, S; Johnson, D; Duke, G; Gannon, V; Selinger, B; Thomas, J

2006-01-01

Long-term trends in alpine and prairie snow pack accumulation and melt are affecting streamflow within the Oldman River Basin in southern Alberta, Canada. Unchecked rural and urban development also has contributed to changes in water quality, including enhanced microbial populations and increased waterborne pathogen occurrence. In this study we look at changing environment within the Oldman River Basin and its impact on water quality and quantity. The cumulative effects include a decline in net water supplies, and declining quality resulting in increased risk of disease. Our data indicates that decreases in the rate of flow of water can result in sedimentation of bacterial contaminants within the water column. Water for ecosystems, urban consumption, recreation and distribution through irrigation is often drawn from waterholding facilities such as dams and weirs, and concern must be expressed over the potential for contaminate build-up and disproportionate potential of these structures to pose a risk to human and animal health. With disruption of natural flow rates for water resulting from environmental change such as global warming and/or human intervention, increased attention needs to be paid to use of best management practices to protect source water supplies.

Hydrogeology and simulated groundwater flow and availability in the North Fork Red River aquifer, southwest Oklahoma, 1980–2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, S. Jerrod; Ellis, John H.; Wagner, Derrick L.; Peterson, Steven M.

2017-09-28

On September 8, 1981, the Oklahoma Water Resources Board established regulatory limits on the maximum annual yield of groundwater (343,042 acre-feet per year) and equal-proportionate-share (EPS) pumping rate (1.0 acre-foot per acre per year) for the North Fork Red River aquifer. The maximum annual yield and EPS were based on a hydrologic investigation that used a numerical groundwater-flow model to evaluate the effects of potential groundwater withdrawals on groundwater availability in the North Fork Red River aquifer. The Oklahoma Water Resources Board is statutorily required (every 20 years) to update the hydrologic investigation on which the maximum annual yield and EPS were based. Because 20 years have elapsed since the final order was issued, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, conducted an updated hydrologic investigation and evaluated the effects of potential groundwater withdrawals on groundwater flow and availability in the North Fork Red River aquifer in Oklahoma. This report describes a hydrologic investigation of the North Fork Red River aquifer that includes an updated summary of the aquifer hydrogeology. As part of this investigation, groundwater flow and availability were simulated by using a numerical groundwater-flow model.The North Fork Red River aquifer in Beckham, Greer, Jackson, Kiowa, and Roger Mills Counties in Oklahoma is composed of about 777 square miles (497,582 acres) of alluvium and terrace deposits along the North Fork Red River and tributaries, including Sweetwater Creek, Elk Creek, Otter Creek, and Elm Fork Red River. The North Fork Red River is the primary source of surface-water inflow to Lake Altus, which overlies the North Fork Red River aquifer. Lake Altus is a U.S. Bureau of Reclamation reservoir with the primary purpose of supplying irrigation water to the Lugert-Altus Irrigation District.A hydrogeologic framework was developed for the North Fork Red River aquifer and included a definition of the aquifer extent and potentiometric surface, as well as a description of the textural and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The hydrogeologic framework was used in the construction of a numerical groundwater-flow model of the North Fork Red River aquifer described in this report. A conceptual model of aquifer inflows and outflows was developed for the North Fork Red River aquifer to constrain the construction and calibration of a numerical groundwater-flow model that reasonably represented the groundwater-flow system. The conceptual-model water budget estimated mean annual inflows to and outflows from the North Fork Red River aquifer for the period 1980–2013 and included a sub-accounting of mean annual inflows and outflows for the portions of the aquifer that were upgradient and downgradient from Lake Altus. The numerical groundwater-flow model simulated the period 1980–2013 and was calibrated to water-table-altitude observations at selected wells, monthly base flow at selected streamgages, net streambed seepage as estimated for the conceptual model, and Lake Altus stage.Groundwater-availability scenarios were performed by using the calibrated numerical groundwater-flow model to (1) estimate the EPS pumping rate that guarantees a minimum 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of the aquifer, (2) quantify the potential effects of projected well withdrawals on groundwater storage over a 50-year period, and (3) simulate the potential effects of a hypothetical (10-year) drought on base flow and groundwater storage. The results of the groundwater-availability scenarios could be used by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board to reevaluate the maximum annual yield of groundwater from the North Fork Red River aquifer.EPS scenarios for the North Fork Red River aquifer were run for periods of 20, 40, and 50 years. The 20-, 40-, and 50-year EPS pumping rates under normal recharge conditions were 0.59, 0.52, and 0.52 acre-foot per acre per year, respectively. Given the 497,582-acre aquifer area, these rates correspond to annual yields of about 294,000, 259,000, and 259,000 acre-feet per year, respectively. Groundwater storage at the end of the 20-year EPS scenario was about 951,000 acre-feet, or about 1,317,000 acre-feet (58 percent) less than the starting EPS scenario storage. This decrease in storage was equivalent to a mean water-level decline of about 22 feet. Most areas of the active alluvium near the North Fork Red River, Elk Creek, and Elm Fork Red River remained partially saturated through the end of the EPS scenario because of streambed seepage. Lake Altus storage was reduced to zero after 6–7 years of EPS pumping in each scenario.Projected 50-year pumping scenarios were used to simulate the effects of selected well withdrawal rates on groundwater storage of the North Fork Red River aquifer and base flows in the North Fork Red River upstream from Lake Altus. The effects of well withdrawals were evaluated by comparing changes in groundwater storage and base flow between four 50-year scenarios using (1) no groundwater pumping, (2) mean pumping rates for the study period (1980–2013), (3) 2013 pumping rates, and (4) increasing demand pumping rates. The increasing demand pumping rates assumed a 20.4-percent increase in pumping over 50 years based on 2010–60 demand projections for southwest Oklahoma.Groundwater storage after 50 years with no pumping was about 2,606,000 acre-feet, or 137,000 acre-feet (5.5 percent) greater than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage increase is equivalent to a mean water-level increase of 2.3 feet. Groundwater storage after 50 years with the mean pumping rate for the study period (1980–2013) was about 2,476,000 acre-feet, or about 7,000 acre-feet (0.3 percent) greater than the initial groundwater storage; this groundwater storage increase is equivalent to a mean water-level increase of 0.1 foot. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with 2013 pumping rates was about 2,398,000 acre-feet, or about 70,000 acre-feet (2.8 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-level decline of 1.2 feet. Groundwater storage at the end of the 50-year period with increasing demand pumping rates was about 2,361,000 acre-feet, or about 107,000 acre-feet (4.3 percent) less than the initial storage; this groundwater storage decrease is equivalent to a mean water-level decline of 1.8 feet. Mean annual base flow simulated at the Carter streamgage (07301500) on North Fork Red River increased by about 4,000 acre-feet (10 percent) after 50 years with no pumping and decreased by about 5,400 acre-feet (13 percent) after 50 years with increasing demand pumping rates. Mean annual base flow simulated at the North Fork Red River inflow to Lake Altus increased by about 7,400 acre-feet (15 percent) after 50 years with no pumping and decreased by about 5,800 acre-feet (12 percent) after 50 years with increasing demand pumping rates.A hypothetical 10-year drought scenario was used to simulate the effects of a prolonged period of reduced recharge on groundwater storage and Lake Altus stage and storage. Drought effects were quantified by comparing the results of the drought scenario to those of the calibrated numerical model (no drought). To simulate the hypothetical drought, recharge in the calibrated numerical model was reduced by 50 percent during the simulated drought period (1984–1993). Groundwater storage at the end of the drought period was about 2,271,000 acre-feet, or about 426,000 acre-feet (15.8 percent) less than the groundwater storage of the calibrated numerical model. This decrease in groundwater storage is equivalent to a mean water-table-altitude decline of 7.1 feet. At the end of the 10-year hypothetical drought period, base flows at the Sweetwater (07301420), Carter (07301500), Headrick (07305000), and Snyder (07307010) streamgages had decreased by about 37, 61, 44, and 45 percent, respectively. The minimum Lake Altus storage simulated during the drought period was 403 acre-feet, which was a decline of 92 percent from the nondrought storage. Reduced base flows in the North Fork Red River were the primary cause of Lake Altus storage declines.

Flow Glottogram and Subglottal Pressure Relationship in Singers and Untrained Voices.

PubMed

Sundberg, Johan

2018-01-01

This article combines results from three earlier investigations of the glottal voice source during phonation at varying degrees of vocal loudness (1) in five classically trained baritone singers (Sundberg et al., 1999), (2) in 15 female and 14 male untrained voices (Sundberg et al., 2005), and (3) in voices rated as hyperfunctional by an expert panel (Millgård et al., 2015). Voice source data were obtained by inverse filtering. Associated subglottal pressures were estimated from oral pressure during the occlusion for the consonant /p/. Five flow glottogram parameters, (1) maximum flow declination rate (MFDR), (2) peak-to-peak pulse amplitude, (3) level difference between the first and the second harmonics of the voice source, (4) closed quotient, and (5) normalized amplitude quotient, were averaged across the singer subjects and related to associated MFDR values. Strong, quantitative relations, expressed as equations, are found between subglottal pressure and MFDR and between MFDR and each of the other flow glottogram parameters. The values for the untrained voices, as well as those for the voices rated as hyperfunctional, deviate systematically from the values derived from the equations. Copyright © 2018 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Changes in cardiac output and tibial artery flow during and after progressive LBNP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

A 3.0 MHz Pulsed Doppler velocity meter (PD) was used to determine blood velocities in the ascending aorta from the suprasternal notch before, during and after progressive 5 min stages of lower body negative pressure (LBNP) in 7 subjects. Changes in stroke volume were calculated from the systolic velocity integrals. A unique 20 MHz PD was used to estimate bloodflow in the posterior tibial artery. With -20 torr mean stroke volume fell 11% and then continued to decline by 48% before LBNP was terminated. Mean tibial flow fell progressively with LBNP stress, due to an increase in reverse flow component and a reduction in peak forward flow and diameter. Stroke volume increased and heart rate fell dramatically during the first 15 sec of recovery. The LBNP was terminated early in 2 subjects because of vasovagal symptons (V). During V the stroke volume rose 86% which more than compensated for the drop in heart rate. This implies that V is accompanied by a paradoxical increase in venous return and that the reduction in HR is the primary cardiovascular event. During the first 15 sec of recovery these 2 subjects had a distinctive marked rise to heart rate reminiscent of the Bainbridge reflex.

In situ effects of pesticides on amphibians in the Sierra Nevada.

PubMed

Sparling, Donald W; Bickham, John; Cowman, Deborah; Fellers, Gary M; Lacher, Thomas; Matson, Cole W; McConnell, Laura

2015-03-01

For more than 20 years, conservationists have agreed that amphibian populations around the world are declining. Results obtained through laboratory or mesocosm studies and measurement of contaminant concentrations in areas experiencing declines have supported a role of contaminants in these declines. The current study examines the effects of contaminant exposure to amphibians in situ in areas actually experiencing declines. Early larval Pseudacris regilla were translocated among Lassen Volcanic, Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks, California, USA and caged in wetlands in 2001 and 2002 until metamorphosis. Twenty contaminants were identified in tadpoles with an average of 1.3-5.9 (maximum = 10) contaminants per animal. Sequoia National Park, which had the greatest variety and concentrations of contaminants in 2001, also had tadpoles that experienced the greatest mortality, slowest developmental rates and lowest cholinesterase activities. Yosemite and Sequoia tadpoles and metamorphs had greater genotoxicity than those in Lassen during 2001, as determined by flow cytometry. In 2001 tadpoles at Yosemite had a significantly higher rate of malformations, characterized as hemimelia (shortened femurs), than those at the other two parks but no significant differences were observed in 2002. Fewer differences in contaminant types and concentrations existed among parks during 2002 compared to 2001. In 2002 Sequoia tadpoles had higher mortality and slower developmental rates but there was no difference among parks in cholinesterase activities. Although concentrations of most contaminants were below known lethal concentrations, simultaneous exposure to multiple chemicals and other stressors may have resulted in lethal and sublethal effects.

Brain microvascular function during cardiopulmonary bypass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorensen, H.R.; Husum, B.; Waaben, J.

1987-11-01

Emboli in the brain microvasculature may inhibit brain activity during cardiopulmonary bypass. Such hypothetical blockade, if confirmed, may be responsible for the reduction of cerebral metabolic rate for glucose observed in animals subjected to cardiopulmonary bypass. In previous studies of cerebral blood flow during bypass, brain microcirculation was not evaluated. In the present study in animals (pigs), reduction of the number of perfused capillaries was estimated by measurements of the capillary diffusion capacity for hydrophilic tracers of low permeability. Capillary diffusion capacity, cerebral blood flow, and cerebral metabolic rate for glucose were measured simultaneously by the integral method, different tracersmore » being used with different circulation times. In eight animals subjected to normothermic cardiopulmonary bypass, and seven subjected to hypothermic bypass, cerebral blood flow, cerebral metabolic rate for glucose, and capillary diffusion capacity decreased significantly: cerebral blood flow from 63 to 43 ml/100 gm/min in normothermia and to 34 ml/100 gm/min in hypothermia and cerebral metabolic rate for glucose from 43.0 to 23.0 mumol/100 gm/min in normothermia and to 14.1 mumol/100 gm/min in hypothermia. The capillary diffusion capacity declined markedly from 0.15 to 0.03 ml/100 gm/min in normothermia but only to 0.08 ml/100 gm/min in hypothermia. We conclude that the decrease of cerebral metabolic rate for glucose during normothermic cardiopulmonary bypass is caused by interruption of blood flow through a part of the capillary bed, possibly by microemboli, and that cerebral blood flow is an inadequate indicator of capillary blood flow. Further studies must clarify why normal microvascular function appears to be preserved during hypothermic cardiopulmonary bypass.« less

Water supply of the Dakota sandstone in the Ellendale-Jamestown area, North Dakota, with reference to changes between 1923 and 1938

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wenzel, Leland Keith; Sand, H.H.

1942-01-01

The Dakota sandstone underlies most of North Dakota and South Dakota and considerable parts of nearby States. In most of the area that it occupies it is covered with thick deposits of younger formations, chiefly shale, that confine the water in the sandstone under considerable pressure. Where the topography is favorable, as it is in the Ellendale-Jamestown area in southeastern North Dakota, wells that tap the sandstone flow at the surface.The first well in North Dakota to tap the Dakota sandstone was drilled in 1886 in the city of Ellendale. It was started as an 8- or 10-inch hole and was finished at a depth of 1,087 feet with a 3%-inch casing. It flowed 600 to 700 gallons a minute and had a pressure reported by different persons as being from 115 to 175 pounds to the square inch.The expense of drilling such large and deep wells discouraged their construction for a time. About 1900, however, the jetting method of drilling was introduced^ and during the following two decades hundreds of farm wells 1 inch to 2 inches in diameter were sunk to the sandstone. The decline in artesian head that resulted from the increased draft on the basin was not apparent at first, but by about 1915 the flow of most wells had decreased noticeably and the flow of a few wells in the western part of the area of flow stopped entirely. It is estimated that by 1923 the artesian head at the western boundary of the area of artesian flow had fallen about 330 feet from its original level.In 1916 steps were taken to initiate measures for conserving the artesian water in North Dakota, but it was not until 1921 that the State legislature passed a law providing for the reduction of flow of artesian wells to that which could be used beneficially. The enforcement of the law was placed in the office of the State geologist, and this difficult task was assigned to H. E. Simpson, who directed the work until his death in 1938. Between 1923 and 1928 each artesian well in the Ellendale-Jamestown area was visited and advice was given the owner regarding the flow to which his well should be reduced. Many of the wells were visited again between 1928 and 1935 in order to check on whether the flow had been sufficiently reduced. Through this program much artesian water was conserved and much valuable information was obtained on the discharge from the basin. It is estimated that between 1920 and 1923 the artesian head in the western part of the Ellendale-Jamestown area declined at an annual rate of about 4 feet, whereas in 1938 the rate of decline was only about 0.5 foot a year. Between 1915 and 1923 the part of the area of artesian flow in the Edgeley quadrangle was reduced an average of 16.5 square miles a year as a result of the eastward movement of the western boundary of the area. Between 1923 and 1938, however, the average rate of shrinkage of this part of the area of artesian flow was only about 4.5 square miles a year. The perennial recharge to each row of townships in the area of artesian flow has been estimated to be about 500 gallons a minute. In 1923 the flow from wells in T. 129 N., Rs. 50 to 65 W., was about 1,000 gallons a minute, or twice the estimated recharge. In 1938 the flow from wells in this row of townships was about 520 gallons a minute, or only slightly more than the estimated recharge. Thus it appears that a balance is being approached between the withdrawal of water from the basin and the perennial recharge to it.It is believed that the water withdrawn from the basin in excess of the perennial recharge has been obtained from storage by the compression of .the sandstone and associated beds of shale due to the increased load placed upon them by the decline in artesian pressure. Calculations made on this theory indicate that the coefficient of storage is about 0.001 that is, about 0.001 cubic foot of water is released from each column of sandstone and shale 1 foot square for each foot of decline in artesian head. Additional computations show that the effect of the large decline in artesian pressure in southeastern North Dakota probably has caused only a few feet of lowering of artesian head at distances of more than 100 miles west of the area of artesian flow.The quality of the artesian water is very poor and much of it is unfit for human consumption. Of the 33 analyses included in this report, all show total dissolved solids of more than 2,200 parts per million. Much of the water is salty, and all contains sufficient fluoride to cause mottling of the enamel of the teeth. The temperature of the water from flowing wells ranges from 47° to 69° F.

A 184-year record of river meander migration from tree rings, aerial imagery, and cross sections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schook, Derek M.; Rathburn, Sara L.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Wolf, J. Marshall

2017-09-01

Channel migration is the primary mechanism of floodplain turnover in meandering rivers and is essential to the persistence of riparian ecosystems. Channel migration is driven by river flows, but short-term records cannot disentangle the effects of land use, flow diversion, past floods, and climate change. We used three data sets to quantify nearly two centuries of channel migration on the Powder River in Montana. The most precise data set came from channel cross sections measured an average of 21 times from 1975 to 2014. We then extended spatial and temporal scales of analysis using aerial photographs (1939-2013) and by aging plains cottonwoods along transects (1830-2014). Migration rates calculated from overlapping periods across data sets mostly revealed cross-method consistency. Data set integration revealed that migration rates have declined since peaking at 5 m/year in the two decades after the extreme 1923 flood (3000 m3/s). Averaged over the duration of each data set, cross section channel migration occurred at 0.81 m/year, compared to 1.52 m/year for the medium-length air photo record and 1.62 m/year for the lengthy cottonwood record. Powder River peak annual flows decreased by 48% (201 vs. 104 m3/s) after the largest flood of the post-1930 gaged record (930 m3/s in 1978). Declining peak discharges led to a 53% reduction in channel width and a 29% increase in sinuosity over the 1939-2013 air photo record. Changes in planform geometry and reductions in channel migration make calculations of floodplain turnover rates dependent on the period of analysis. We found that the intensively studied last four decades do not represent the past two centuries.

A 184-year record of river meander migration from tree rings, aerial imagery, and cross sections

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schook, Derek M.; Rathburn, Sara L.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Wolf, J. Marshall

2017-01-01

Channel migration is the primary mechanism of floodplain turnover in meandering rivers and is essential to the persistence of riparian ecosystems. Channel migration is driven by river flows, but short-term records cannot disentangle the effects of land use, flow diversion, past floods, and climate change. We used three data sets to quantify nearly two centuries of channel migration on the Powder River in Montana. The most precise data set came from channel cross sections measured an average of 21 times from 1975 to 2014. We then extended spatial and temporal scales of analysis using aerial photographs (1939–2013) and by aging plains cottonwoods along transects (1830–2014). Migration rates calculated from overlapping periods across data sets mostly revealed cross-method consistency. Data set integration revealed that migration rates have declined since peaking at 5 m/year in the two decades after the extreme 1923 flood (3000 m3/s). Averaged over the duration of each data set, cross section channel migration occurred at 0.81 m/year, compared to 1.52 m/year for the medium-length air photo record and 1.62 m/year for the lengthy cottonwood record. Powder River peak annual flows decreased by 48% (201 vs. 104 m3/s) after the largest flood of the post-1930 gaged record (930 m3/s in 1978). Declining peak discharges led to a 53% reduction in channel width and a 29% increase in sinuosity over the 1939–2013 air photo record. Changes in planform geometry and reductions in channel migration make calculations of floodplain turnover rates dependent on the period of analysis. We found that the intensively studied last four decades do not represent the past two centuries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu Junji; Yan Xing; Gao Runtao

Purpose: To evaluate the effect of irradiation on microvascular endothelial cells in miniature pig parotid glands. Methods and Materials: A single 25-Gy dose of irradiation (IR) was delivered to parotid glands of 6 miniature pigs. Three other animals served as non-IR controls. Local blood flow rate in glands was measured pre- and post-IR with an ultrasonic Doppler analyzer. Samples of parotid gland tissue were taken at 4 h, 24 h, 1 week, and 2 weeks after IR for microvascular density (MVD) analysis and sphingomyelinase (SMase) assay. Histopathology and immunohistochemical staining (anti-CD31 and anti-AQP1) were used to assess morphological changes. MVDmore » was determined by calculating the number of CD31- or AQP1-stained cells per field. A terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) apoptosis assay was used to detect apoptotic cells. The activity of acid and neutral Mg{sup 2+}-dependent SMase (ASMase and NSMase, respectively) was also assayed. Results: Local parotid gland blood flow rate decreased rapidly at 4 h post-IR and remained below control levels throughout the 14-day observation period. Parotid MVD also declined from 4 to 24 hours and remained below control levels thereafter. The activity levels of ASMase and NSMase in parotid glands increased rapidly from 4 to 24 h post-IR and then declined gradually. The frequency of detecting apoptotic nuclei in the glands followed similar kinetics. Conclusions: Single-dose IR led to a significant reduction of MVD and local blood flow rate, indicating marked damage to microvascular endothelial cells in miniature pig parotid glands. The significant and rapid increases of ASMase and NSMase activity levels may be important in this IR-induced damage.« less

Volcanic signature of Basin and Range extension on the shrinking Cascade arc, Klamath Falls-Keno area, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priest, George R.; Hladky, Frank R.; Mertzman, Stanley A.; Murray, Robert B.; Wiley, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

geologic mapping of the Klamath Falls-Keno area revealed the complex relationship between subduction, crustal extension, and magmatic composition of the southern Oregon Cascade volcanic arc. Volcanism in the study area at 7-4 Ma consisted of calc-alkaline basaltic andesite and andesite lava flowing over a relatively flat landscape. Local angular unconformities are evidence that Basin and Range extension began at by at least 4 Ma and continues today with fault blocks tilting at a long-term rate of 2°/Ma to 3°/Ma. Minimum NW-SE extension is 1.5 km over 28 km ( 5%). High-alumina olivine tholeiite (HAOT) or low-K, low-Ti transitional high-alumina olivine tholeiite (LKLT) erupted within and adjacent to the back edge of the calc-alkaline arc as the edge receded westward at a rate of 10 km/Ma at 2.7-0.45 Ma. The volcanic front migrated east much slower than the back arc migrated west: 0 km/Ma for 6-0.4 Ma calc-alkaline rocks; 0.7 km/Ma, if 6 Ma HAOT-LKLT is included; and 1 km/Ma, if highly differentiated 17-30 Ma volcanic rocks of the early Western Cascades are included. Declining convergence probably decreased asthenospheric corner flow, decreasing width of calc-alkaline and HAOT-LKLT volcanism and the associated heat flow anomaly, the margins of which focused on Basin and Range extension and leakage of HAOT-LKLT magma to the surface. This declining corner flow combined with steepening slab dip shifted the back arc west. Compensation of extension by volcanic intrusion and extrusion allowed growth of imposing range-front fault scarps only behind the trailing edge of the shrinking arc.

Hospital level analysis to improve patient flow.

PubMed

Khanna, Sankalp; Boyle, Justin; Good, Norm; Bugden, Simon; Scott, Mark

2013-01-01

The complexity of hospital operations ensures that one-size-fits-all solutions seldom work. As hospitals turn to evidence based strategies to redesign flow, it is critical that they tailor the strategies to suit their individual service. This paper analyses the effect of hospital occupancy on inpatient and emergency department patient flow parameters at the Caboolture hospital in Queensland, Australia, and identifies critical levels, or choke points, that result in performance decline. The effect of weekdays and weekends on patient flow is also investigated. We compare these findings to a previous study that has analysed patient flow across Queensland hospitals grouped by size, and discover several differences in the interaction between rising occupancy and patient flow parameters including rates of patient flow, length of stay, and access block. We also identify significantly higher choke points for Caboolture hospital as compared to other similarly sized Queensland hospitals, which suggest that patient flow here can be redesigned to operate at higher levels of occupancy without degrading flow performance. The findings support arguments for hospitals to analyse patient flow at a service level to deliver optimum service improvement.

Baobab trees (Adansonia) in Madagascar use stored water to flush new leaves but not to support stomatal opening before the rainy season.

PubMed

Chapotin, Saharah Moon; Razanameharizaka, Juvet H; Holbrook, N Michele

2006-01-01

Baobab trees (Adansonia, Bombacaceae) are widely thought to store water in their stems for use when water availability is low. We tested this hypothesis by assessing the role of stored water during the dry season in three baobab species in Madagascar. In the dry season, leaves are present only during and after leaf flush. We quantified the relative contributions of stem and soil water during this period through measures of stem water content, sap flow and stomatal conductance. Rates of sap flow at the base of the trunk were near zero, indicating that leaf flushing was almost entirely dependent on stem water. Stem water content declined by up to 12% during this period, yet stomatal conductance and branch sap flow rates remained very low. Stem water reserves were used to support new leaf growth and cuticular transpiration, but not to support stomatal opening before the rainy season. Stomatal opening coincided with the onset of sap flow at the base of the trunk and occurred only after significant rainfall.

Flow testing of the Newberry 2 research drillhole, Newberry volcano, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ingebritsen, S.E.; Carothers, W.W.; Mariner, R.H.; Gudmundsson, J.S.; Sammel, E.A.

1986-01-01

A 20 hour flow test of the Newberry 2 research drillhole at Newberry Volcano produced about 33,000 kilograms of fluid. The flow rate declined from about 0.8 kilograms per sec to less than 0.3 kilograms per sec during the course of the test. The mass ratio of liquid water to vapor was about 3:2 at the separator and stayed fairly constant throughout the test. The vapor phase was about half steam and half CO2 by weight. The average enthalpy of the steam/water mixture at the separator was about 1 ,200 kilojoules per kilogram. Because of the low flow rate and the large temperature gradient into the surrounding rocks, heat loss from the wellbore was high; a simple conductive model gives overall losses of about 1,200 kilojoules per kilogram of H2O produced. The actual heat loss may have been even higher due to convective effects, and it is likely that the fluid entering the bottom of the wellbore was largely or entirely steam and CO2. (Author 's abstract)

Estimation of mussel population response to hydrologic alteration in a southeastern U.S. stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.T.; Wisniewski, J.M.; Shea, C.P.; Rhett, Jackson C.

2011-01-01

The southeastern United States has experienced severe, recurrent drought, rapid human population growth, and increasing agricultural irrigation during recent decades, resulting in greater demand for the water resources. During the same time period, freshwater mussels (Unioniformes) in the region have experienced substantial population declines. Consequently, there is growing interest in determining how mussel population declines are related to activities associated with water resource development. Determining the causes of mussel population declines requires, in part, an understanding of the factors influencing mussel population dynamics. We developed Pradel reverse-time, tag-recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment, and population growth rates for three federally endangered mussel species in the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Georgia. The models were parameterized using mussel tag-recapture data collected over five consecutive years from Sawhatchee Creek, located in southwestern Georgia. Model estimates indicated that mussel survival was strongly and negatively related to high flows during the summer, whereas recruitment was strongly and positively related to flows during the spring and summer. Using these models, we simulated mussel population dynamics under historic (1940-1969) and current (1980-2008) flow regimes and under increasing levels of water use to evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative minimum flow regulations. The simulations indicated that the probability of simulated mussel population extinction was at least 8 times greater under current hydrologic regimes. In addition, simulations of mussel extinction under varying levels of water use indicated that the relative risk of extinction increased with increased water use across a range of minimum flow regulations. The simulation results also indicated that our estimates of the effects of water use on mussel extinction were influenced by the assumptions about the dynamics of the system, highlighting the need for further study of mussel population dynamics. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

Effects of a Semioccluded Vocal Tract on Laryngeal Muscle Activity and Glottal Adduction in a Single Female Subject

PubMed Central

Laukkanen, Anne-Maria; Titze, Ingo R.; Hoffman, Henry; Finnegan, Eileen

2015-01-01

Voice training exploits semiocclusives, which increase vocal tract interaction with the source. Modeling results suggest that vocal economy (maximum flow declination rate divided by maximum area declination rate, MADR) is improved by matching the glottal and vocal tract impedances. Changes in MADR may be correlated with thyroarytenoid (TA) muscle activity. Here the effects of impedance matching are studied for laryngeal muscle activity and glottal resistance. One female repeated [pa:p:a] before and immediately after (a) phonation into different-sized tubes and (b) voiced bilabial fricative [β:]. To allow estimation of subglottic pressure from the oral pressure, [p] was inserted also in the repetitions of the semiocclusions. Airflow was registered using a flow mask. EMG was registered from TA, cricothyroid (CT) and lateral cricoarytenoid (LCA) muscles. Phonation was simulated using a 7 × 5 × 5 point-mass model of the vocal folds, allowing inputs of simulated laryngeal muscle activation. The variables were TA, CT and LCA activities. Increased vocal tract impedance caused the subject to raise TA activity compared to CT and LCA activities. Computer simulation showed that higher glottal economy and efficiency (oral radiated power divided by aerodynamic power) were obtained with a higher TA/CT ratio when LCA activity was tuned for ideal adduction. PMID:19011306

Evaluation of long-term water-level declines in basalt aquifers near Mosier, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Erick R.; Morgan, David S.; Lee, Karl K.; Haynes, Jonathan V.; Conlon, Terrence D.

2012-01-01

The Mosier area lies along the Columbia River in northwestern Wasco County between the cities of Hood River and The Dalles, Oregon. Major water uses in the area are irrigation, municipal supply for the city of Mosier, and domestic supply for rural residents. The primary source of water is groundwater from the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG) aquifers that underlie the area. Concerns regarding this supply of water arose in the mid-1970s, when groundwater levels in the orchard tract area began to steadily decline. In the 1980s, the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) conducted a study of the aquifer system, which resulted in delineation of an administrative area where parts of the Pomona and Priest Rapids aquifers were withdrawn from further appropriations for any use other than domestic supply. Despite this action, water levels continued to drop at approximately the same, nearly constant annual rate of about 4 feet per year, resulting in a current total decline of between 150 and 200 feet in many wells with continued downward trends. In 2005, the Mosier Watershed Council and the Wasco Soil and Water Conservation District began a cooperative investigation of the groundwater system with the U.S. Geological Survey. The objectives of the study were to advance the scientific understanding of the hydrology of the basin, to assess the sustainability of the water supply, to evaluate the causes of persistent groundwater-level declines, and to evaluate potential management strategies. An additional U.S. Geological Survey objective was to advance the understanding of CRBG aquifers, which are the primary source of water across a large part of Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. In many areas, significant groundwater level declines have resulted as these aquifers were heavily developed for agricultural, municipal, and domestic water supplies. Three major factors were identified as possible contributors to the water-level declines in the study area: (1) pumping at rates that are not sustainable, (2) well construction practices that have resulted in leakage from aquifers into springs and streams, and (3) reduction in aquifer recharge resulting from long-term climate variations. Historical well construction practices, specifically open, unlined, uncased boreholes that result in cross-connecting (or commingling) multiple aquifers, allow water to flow between these aquifers. Water flowing along the path of least resistance, through commingled boreholes, allows the drainage of aquifers that previously stored water more efficiently. The study area is in the eastern foothills of the Cascade Range in north central Oregon in a transitional zone between the High Cascades to the west and the Columbia Plateau to the east. The 78-square mile (mi2) area is defined by the drainages of three streams - Mosier Creek (51.8 mi2), Rock Creek (13.9 mi2), and Rowena Creek (6.9 mi2) - plus a small area that drains directly to the Columbia River.The three major components of the study are: (1) a 2-year intensive data collection period to augment previous streamflow and groundwater-level measurements, (2) precipitation-runoff modeling of the watersheds to determine the amount of recharge to the aquifer system, and (3) groundwater-flow modeling and analysis to evaluate the cause of groundwater-level declines and to evaluate possible water resource management strategies. Data collection included the following: 1. Water-level measurements were made in 37 wells. Bi-monthly or quarterly measurements were made in 30 wells, and continuous water-level monitoring instruments were installed in 7 wells. The measurements principally were made to capture the seasonal patterns in the groundwater system, and to augment the available long-term record. 2. Groundwater pumping was measured, reported, or estimated from irrigation, municipal and domestic wells. Flowmeters were installed on 74 percent of all high-capacity irrigation wells in the study area. 3. Borehole geophysical data were collected from a known commingling well. These data measured geologic properties and vertical flow through the well. 4. Streamflow measurements were made in Rock, Rowena, and Mosier Creeks. A long-term recording stream-gaging station was reestablished on Mosier Creek to provide a continuous record of streamflow. Streamflow measurements also were made along the creeks periodically to evaluate seasonal patterns of exchange between streams and the groundwater system. Major findings from the study include: 1. Annual average precipitation ranges from 20 to 54 inches across the study area with an average value of about 30 inches. Based on rainfall-runoff modeling, about one-third of this water infiltrates into the aquifer system. 2. Currently, about 3 percent of the water infiltrated into the groundwater system is extracted for municipal, agricultural, and rural residential use. The remainder of the water flows through the aquifer system, discharging into local streams and the Columbia River. About 80 percent of recent pumping supports crop production. The city of Mosier public supply wells account for about 10 percent of total pumping, with the remaining 10 percent being pumped from the private wells of rural residents. 3. Groundwater-flow simulation results indicate that leakage through commingling wells is a significant and likely the dominant cause of water level declines. Leakage patterns can be complex, but most of the leaked water likely flows out the CRBG aquifer system through very permeable sediments into Mosier Creek and its tributary streams in the OWRD administrative area. Model-derived estimates attribute 80-90 percent of the declines to commingling, with pumping accounting for the remaining 10-20 percent. Although decadal trends in precipitation have occurred, associated changes in aquifer recharge are likely not a significant contributor to the current water level declines. 4. As many as 150 wells might be commingling. To evaluate whether or not the local combination of geology and well construction have resulted in aquifer commingling at a particular well, the well needs to be tested by measuring intraborehole flow. During geophysical testing of one known commingling well, the flow rate through the well between aquifers ranged between 70 and 135 gallons per minute (11-22 percent of total annual pumping in the study area). Historically, when aquifer water levels were 150-200 feet higher, this flow rate would have been correspondingly higher. 5. Because aquifer commingling through well boreholes is likely the dominant cause of aquifer declines, flow simulations were conducted to evaluate the benefit of repairing wells in specified locations and the benefit of recharging aquifers using diverted flow from study area creeks. As part of this analysis, maps were generated that show which areas are more vulnerable to commingling. These maps indicate that the value of repairing wells in the area generally coincident with the OWRD administrative area is higher than in areas farther upstream in the watershed. Simulation results also indicate that artificial recharge of the aquifers using diverted creek water will not significantly improve water levels in the aquifer system unless at least some commingling wells are repaired first. Repairs would entail construction of wells in a manner that prevents commingling of multiple aquifers. The value of artificially recharging the aquifers improves as more wells are repaired because the aquifer system more efficiently stores water.

Impacts of Declining Mississippi River Sediment Load on Subaqueous Delta Front Sedimentation and Geomorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maloney, J. M.; Bentley, S. J.; Xu, K.; Georgiou, I. Y.; Miner, M. D.

2016-02-01

The Mississippi River delta system is undergoing unprecedented changes due to the effects of climate change and anthropogenic alterations to the river and its delta. Since the 1950s, the suspended sediment load of the Mississippi River has decreased by approximately 50% due to the construction of >50,000 dams in the Mississippi basin. The impact of this decreased sediment load has been observed in subaerial environments, but the impact on sedimentation and geomorphology of the subaqueous delta front has yet to be examined. To identify historic trends in sedimentation patterns, we compiled bathymetric datasets, including historical charts, industry and academic surveys, and NOAA data, collected between 1764 and 2009. Sedimentation rates are variable across the delta front, but are highest near the mouth of Southwest Pass, which carries the largest percentage of Mississippi River flow and sediment into the Gulf of Mexico. The progradation rate of Southwest Pass (measured at the 10 m depth contour) has slowed from 67 m/yr between 1764 and 1940 to 26 m/yr between 1940 and 1979, with evidence of further deceleration from 1979-2009. Decreased rates of progradation are also observed at South Pass and Pass A Loutre, with the 10 m contour retreating at rates >20 m/yr at both passes. Advancement of the delta front also decelerated in deeper water (15-90 m) offshore from Southwest Pass. In this area, from 1940-1979, depth contours advanced seaward 30 m/yr, but rates declined from 1979-2005. Furthermore, over the same area, the sediment accumulation rate decreased by 81% for the same period. The Mississippi River delta front appears to be entering a phase of decline, which will likely be accelerated by future upstream management practices. This decline has implications for offshore ecosystems, biogeochemical cycling, pollutant dispersal, mudflow hazard, and the continued use of the delta as an economic and population center.

Influence of Hydrological Flow Paths on Rates and Forms of Nitrogen Losses from Mediterranean Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohse, K. A.; Sanderman, J.; Amundson, R. G.

2005-12-01

Patterns of precipitation and runoff in California are changing and likely to influence the structure and functioning of watersheds. Studies have demonstrated that hydrologic flushing during seasonal transitions in Mediterranean ecosystems can exert a strong control on nitrogen (N) export, yet few studies have examined the influence of different hydrological flow paths on rates and forms of nitrogen (N) losses. Here we illuminate the influence of variations in precipitation and hydrological pathways on the rate and form of N export along a toposequence of a well-characterized Mediterranean catchment in northern California. As a part of a larger study examining particulate and dissolved carbon loss, we analyzed seasonal patterns of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), nitrate and ammonium concentrations in rainfall, throughfall, matrix and preferential flow, and stream samples over the course of one water year. We also analyzed seasonal soil N dynamics along this toposequence. During the transition to the winter rain season, but prior to any soil water displacement to the stream, DON and nitrate moved through near-surface soils as preferential flow. Once hillslope soils became saturated, saturated subsurface flow flushed nitrate from the hollow resulting in high stream nitrate/DON concentrations. Between storms, stream nitrate/DON concentrations were lower and appeared to reflect deep subsurface water flow chemistry. During the transition to the wet season, rates of soil nitrate production were high in the hollow relative to the hillslope soils. In the spring, these rates systematically declined as soil moisture decreased. Results from our study suggest seasonal fluctuations in soil moisture control soil N cycling and seasonal changes in the hydrological connection between hillslope soils and streams control the seasonal production and export of hydrologic N.

Population and development in Asia and the Pacific: a demographic analysis.

PubMed

Debavalya, N

1982-06-01

Close examinations of population trends shows that the new trends reflect demographic changes that have occurred in many developing countries in Asia and the Pacific. In East Asia the population growth rate has declined rather rapidly from 1.94% in 1960-65 to 1.38% in 1975-80 and 1.24% in 1980-85. Since nearly 85% of this region's population is accounted for by China, demographic trends there virtually dictate the trends for the region as a whole. The available data suggest that the growth rate in China declined from 2.02% in 1970-75 to 1.4% in 1975-80 and is expected to reach 1.27% during 1980-85. The sharp decline in China's population growth rate is expected to continue. It is anticipated that the population of East Asia will increase to 1.4 billion by the year 2000. In addition, the growth rate has declined significantly in Japan and the Republic of Korea. The growth rate is declining in Eastern South and Middle South Asia as well. Longterm declines have brought growth rates down in Sri Lanka and Singapore. More recently, the rate of growth also has begun to fall in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, while it remains generally at high levels in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan. In the Oceania region, 79% of which is made up of Australia and New Zealand, the growth rate is also steadily decreasing. Despite the decrease in the growth rate of Asia and the Pacific, especially during 1980-2000, in absolute terms its growth will be the largest in the world during these 29 years; 908 million out of 1687 million of the total growth. Asia and the Pacific will contribute more than 45 million people a year during the final 20 years of this century. For the world as a whole, the new estimates and projections indicate a slow but steady decline of the crude birthrate from 36.3/1000 in 1950-55 to 28.5 in 1975-80, then to 23.9 in 1995-2000, and finally to 17.9 in 2020-2025. China had a birthrate estimated at about 21 in 1975-80; and India and Indonesia had estimated rates in the range of 33-35. Japan, Australia, and New Zealand had estimated birthrates in the range of 15-18 in 1975-80. As was the case with fertility, the largest gains in mortality reduction have accrued among the less developed regions. In Asia mortality declines have slowed during recent years. Some substantial shifts in patterns of international migration have occurred in the flow of workers into the oil rich countries of Middle and Western South Asia. Migrants come closely from countries within the region, and there are growing numbers from India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and elsewhere. The number of people living in urban centers in Asia is increasing very rapidly. Meeting basic needs requires a dual target for each less developed country--an increase in gross national product per capita and a redistribution of income.

The Induced Seismicity Roller Coaster: Up, and then Down, and then Up Again

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riffault, J.; Dempsey, D.

2017-12-01

Diverse industries from oil & gas, to geothermal and CO2 storage have triggered significant numbers of earthquakes in the last decade. There is broad agreement that the underlying cause is injection of large volumes of fluid and subsequent pressure rise in the disposal and connected formations. Thus, it stands to reason that reducing injection will have a flow-through effect on the seismicity. For example, in an attempt to mitigate earthquakes in Oklahoma, a 40% injection rate reduction was enforced, resulting in a significant decrease in the seismicity rate. Here, we show that, under certain conditions, cutting the injection rate leads to transients in the seismicity rate that could mislead operators and regulators into a false sense of security. We used semi-analytic solutions of injection and fluid flow in a radial geometry coupled with a model that links the pressure rise with the rate of induced seismicity. We find that cutting the injection rate causes complex pressure transients around the injection well: (i) initially, pressure will continue to increase; (ii), then, it reaches a peak and starts to decline; (iii) finally, the decline is reversed and pressure starts to increase again. Depending on the stress criticality of the system and the size of the injection rate cut, the outcome can be a short-term decrease, or even a total cessation, of the seismicity. However, over the longer term, seismicity will increase to a new steady-state (which is nevertheless lower than that preceding the rate cut.) Our results imply that it can be misleading to rely on observations of the seismicity rate shortly after mitigation measures are implemented as an indicator of their efficacy. It is also possible to use this model to interpret the results injection well step tests, with the aim of quantifying aspects of the crustal stress state.

Primary weathering rates, water transit times, and concentration-discharge relations: A theoretical analysis for the critical zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ameli, Ali A.; Beven, Keith; Erlandsson, Martin; Creed, Irena F.; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; Bishop, Kevin

2017-01-01

The permeability architecture of the critical zone exerts a major influence on the hydrogeochemistry of the critical zone. Water flow path dynamics drive the spatiotemporal pattern of geochemical evolution and resulting streamflow concentration-discharge (C-Q) relation, but these flow paths are complex and difficult to map quantitatively. Here we couple a new integrated flow and particle tracking transport model with a general reversible Transition State Theory style dissolution rate law to explore theoretically how C-Q relations and concentration in the critical zone respond to decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) with soil depth. We do this for a range of flow rates and mineral reaction kinetics. Our results show that for minerals with a high ratio of equilibrium concentration (Ceq) to intrinsic weathering rate (Rmax), vertical heterogeneity in Ks enhances the gradient of weathering-derived solute concentration in the critical zone and strengthens the inverse stream C-Q relation. As CeqRmax decreases, the spatial distribution of concentration in the critical zone becomes more uniform for a wide range of flow rates, and stream C-Q relation approaches chemostatic behavior, regardless of the degree of vertical heterogeneity in Ks. These findings suggest that the transport-controlled mechanisms in the hillslope can lead to chemostatic C-Q relations in the stream while the hillslope surface reaction-controlled mechanisms are associated with an inverse stream C-Q relation. In addition, as CeqRmax decreases, the concentration in the critical zone and stream become less dependent on groundwater age (or transit time).

Simulation of the ground-water-flow system in the Kalamazoo County area, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luukkonen, Carol L.; Blumer, Stephen P.; Weaver, T.L.; Jean, Julie

2004-01-01

A ground-water-flow model was developed to investigate the ground-water resources of Kalamazoo County. Ground water is widely used as a source of water for drinking and industry in Kalamazoo County and the surrounding area. Additionally, lakes and streams are valued for their recreational and aesthetic uses. Stresses on the ground-water system, both natural and human-induced, have raised concerns about the long-term availability of ground water for people to use and for replenishment of lakes and streams. Potential changes in these stresses, including withdrawals and recharge, were simulated using a ground-water-flow model. Simulations included steady-state conditions (in which stresses remained constant and changes in storage were not included) and transient conditions (in which stresses changed in seasonal and monthly time scales and storage within the system was included). Steady-state simulations were used to investigate the long-term effects on water levels and streamflow of a reduction in recharge or an increase in pumping to projected 2010 withdrawal rates, withdrawal and application of water for irrigation, and a reduction in recharge in urban areas caused by impervious surfaces. Transient simulations were used to investigate changes in withdrawals to match seasonal and monthly patterns under various recharge conditions, and the potential effects of the use of water for irrigation over the summer months. With a reduction in recharge, simulated water levels declined over most of the model area in Kalamazoo County; with an increase in pumping, water levels declined primarily near pumping centers. Because withdrawals by wells intercept water that would have discharged possibly to a stream or lake, model simulations indicated that streamflow was reduced with increased withdrawals. With withdrawal and consumption of water for irrigation, simulated water levels declined. Assuming a reduction in recharge due to urbanization, water levels declined and flow to streams was reduced based on steady-state simulation results. Transient results indicated a reduction of water levels with the simulated use of water for irrigation over the summer months. Generally the transient simulation with recharge only in the winter provided the best fit to observed water levels collected during synoptic water-level measurements in some wells and to the trends observed in water levels for other wells. Analysis of the regional hydrologic budgets provides an increased understanding of water movement within the ground-water-flow system in Kalamazoo County. Budgets for the steady-state simulations indicated that with reduced recharge, less water was available for streamflow and less water left the model area through the model boundaries. Similarly, with an increase in pumping rates, less water was available to enter streams and become streamflow. When recharge was assumed to remain constant and when it was allowed to vary throughout the year, the amount of water that entered storage was greater than that which left storage. However, when recharge was distributed through October?May only or when recharge rates were reduced from October to May, the amount of water that entered storage was less than that which left storage. Thus, on the basis of model simulations, with reduced recharge or increased withdrawals, water must come from storage, rivers, or from ground-flow-system boundaries to meet withdrawal demands.

In situ effects of pesticides on amphibians in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparling, Donald W.; Bickham, John W.; Cowman, Deborah; Fellers, Gary M.; Lacher, Thomas E.; Matson, Cole W.; McConnell, Laura

2015-01-01

For more than 20 years, conservationists have agreed that amphibian populations around the world are declining. Results obtained through laboratory or mesocosm studies and measurement of contaminant concentrations in areas experiencing declines have supported a role of contaminants in these declines. The current study examines the effects of contaminant exposure to amphibians in situ in areas actually experiencing declines. Early larval Pseudacris regilla were translocated among Lassen Volcanic, Yosemite and Sequoia National Parks, California, USA and caged in wetlands in 2001 and 2002 until metamorphosis. Twenty contaminants were identified in tadpoles with an average of 1.3–5.9 (maximum = 10) contaminants per animal. Sequoia National Park, which had the greatest variety and concentrations of contaminants in 2001, also had tadpoles that experienced the greatest mortality, slowest developmental rates and lowest cholinesterase activities. Yosemite and Sequoia tadpoles and metamorphs had greater genotoxicity than those in Lassen during 2001, as determined by flow cytometry. In 2001 tadpoles at Yosemite had a significantly higher rate of malformations, characterized as hemimelia (shortened femurs), than those at the other two parks but no significant differences were observed in 2002. Fewer differences in contaminant types and concentrations existed among parks during 2002 compared to 2001. In 2002 Sequoia tadpoles had higher mortality and slower developmental rates but there was no difference among parks in cholinesterase activities. Although concentrations of most contaminants were below known lethal concentrations, simultaneous exposure to multiple chemicals and other stressors may have resulted in lethal and sublethal effects.

CO2-vegetation feedbacks and other climate changes implicated in reducing base flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trancoso, Ralph; Larsen, Joshua R.; McVicar, Tim R.; Phinn, Stuart R.; McAlpine, Clive A.

2017-03-01

Changes in the hydrological cycle have a significant impact in water limited environments. Globally, some of these regions are experiencing declining precipitation yet are simultaneously becoming greener, partly due to vegetation feedbacks associated with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Reduced precipitation together with increasing rates of actual evapotranspiration diminishes streamflow, especially base flow, a critical freshwater dry-season resource. Here we assess recent changes in base flow in Australia from 1981-2013 and 1950-2013 and separate the contribution of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and other factors on base flow trends. Our findings reveal that these other factors influencing the base flow trends are best explained by an increase in photosynthetic activity. These results provide the first robust observational evidence that increasing atmospheric CO2 and its associated vegetation feedbacks are reducing base flow in addition to other climatic impacts. These findings have broad implications for water resource management, especially in the world's water limited regions.

The water-water cycle is a major electron sink in Camellia species when CO2 assimilation is restricted.

PubMed

Cai, Yan-Fei; Yang, Qiu-Yun; Li, Shu-Fa; Wang, Ji-Hua; Huang, Wei

2017-03-01

The water-water cycle (WWC) is thought to dissipate excess excitation energy and balance the ATP/NADPH energy budget under some conditions. However, the importance of the WWC in photosynthetic regulation remains controversy. We observed that three Camellia cultivars exhibited high rates of photosynthetic electron flow under high light when photosynthesis was restricted. We thus tested the hypothesis that the WWC is a major electron sink in the three Camellia cultivars when CO 2 assimilation is restricted. Light response curves indicated that the WWC was strongly increased with photorespiration and was positively correlated with extra ATP supplied from other flexible mechanisms excluding linear electron flow, implying that the WWC is an important alternative electron sink to balance ATP/NADPH energy demand for sustaining photorespiration in Camellia cultivars. Interestingly, when photosynthesis was depressed by the decreases in stomatal and mesophyll conductance, the rates of photosynthetic electron flow through photosystem II declined slightly and the rates of WWC was enhanced. Furthermore, the increased electron flow of WWC was positively correlated with the ratio of Rubisco oxygenation to carboxylation, supporting the involvement of alternative electron flow in balancing the ATP/NADPH energy budget. We propose that the WWC is a crucial electron sink to regulate ATP/NADPH energy budget and dissipate excess energy excitation in Camellia species when CO 2 assimilation is restricted. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Ecosystem warming increases sap flow rates of northern red oak trees

DOE PAGES

Juice, Stephanie M.; Templer, Pamela H.; Phillips, Nathan G.; ...

2016-03-17

Over the next century, air temperature increases up to 5°C are projected for the northeastern United States. As evapotranspiration strongly influences water loss from terrestrial ecosystems, the ecophysiological response of trees to warming will have important consequences for forest water budgets. We measured growing season sap flow rates in mature northern red oak ( Quercus rubra L.) trees in a combined air (up to 5.5°C above ambient) and soil (up to 1.85°C above ambient at 6-cm depth) warming experiment at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, United States. Through principal components analysis, we found air and soil temperatures explained the largest amount ofmore » variance in environmental variables associated with rates of sap flow, with relative humidity, photosynthetically active radiation and vapor pressure deficit having significant, but smaller, effects. On average, each 1°C increase in temperature increased sap flow rates by approximately 1100 kg H 2O m -2 sapwood area day-1 throughout the growing season and by 1200 kg H 2O m -2 sapwood area day -1 during the early growing season. Reductions in the number of cold winter days correlated positively with increased sap flow during the early growing season (a decrease in 100 heating-degree days was associated with a sapflow increase in approximately 5 kg H 2O m -2 sapwood area day -1). Soil moisture declined with increased treatment temperatures, and each soil moisture percentage decrease resulted in a decrease in sap flow of approximately 360 kg H2O m -22 sapwood area day -1. At night, soil moisture correlated positively with sap flow. Finally, these results demonstrate that warmer air and soil temperatures in winter and throughout the growing season lead to increased sap flow rates, which could affect forest water budgets throughout the year.« less

Ecosystem warming increases sap flow rates of northern red oak trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Juice, Stephanie M.; Templer, Pamela H.; Phillips, Nathan G.

Over the next century, air temperature increases up to 5°C are projected for the northeastern United States. As evapotranspiration strongly influences water loss from terrestrial ecosystems, the ecophysiological response of trees to warming will have important consequences for forest water budgets. We measured growing season sap flow rates in mature northern red oak ( Quercus rubra L.) trees in a combined air (up to 5.5°C above ambient) and soil (up to 1.85°C above ambient at 6-cm depth) warming experiment at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, United States. Through principal components analysis, we found air and soil temperatures explained the largest amount ofmore » variance in environmental variables associated with rates of sap flow, with relative humidity, photosynthetically active radiation and vapor pressure deficit having significant, but smaller, effects. On average, each 1°C increase in temperature increased sap flow rates by approximately 1100 kg H 2O m -2 sapwood area day-1 throughout the growing season and by 1200 kg H 2O m -2 sapwood area day -1 during the early growing season. Reductions in the number of cold winter days correlated positively with increased sap flow during the early growing season (a decrease in 100 heating-degree days was associated with a sapflow increase in approximately 5 kg H 2O m -2 sapwood area day -1). Soil moisture declined with increased treatment temperatures, and each soil moisture percentage decrease resulted in a decrease in sap flow of approximately 360 kg H2O m -22 sapwood area day -1. At night, soil moisture correlated positively with sap flow. Finally, these results demonstrate that warmer air and soil temperatures in winter and throughout the growing season lead to increased sap flow rates, which could affect forest water budgets throughout the year.« less

DETECTING FOREST STRESS AND DECLINE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING RIVER FLOW IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Forest stress and decline resulting from increased river flows were investigated in Myakka River State Park (MRSP), Florida, USA. Since 1977, land-use changes around the upper Myakka River watershed have resulted in significant increases in water entering the river, which have...

Effect of advective flow in fractures and matrix diffusion on natural gas production

DOE PAGES

Karra, Satish; Makedonska, Nataliia; Viswanathan, Hari S.; ...

2015-10-12

Although hydraulic fracturing has been used for natural gas production for the past couple of decades, there are significant uncertainties about the underlying mechanisms behind the production curves that are seen in the field. A discrete fracture network based reservoir-scale work flow is used to identify the relative effect of flow of gas in fractures and matrix diffusion on the production curve. With realistic three dimensional representations of fracture network geometry and aperture variability, simulated production decline curves qualitatively resemble observed production decline curves. The high initial peak of the production curve is controlled by advective fracture flow of freemore » gas within the network and is sensitive to the fracture aperture variability. Matrix diffusion does not significantly affect the production decline curve in the first few years, but contributes to production after approximately 10 years. These results suggest that the initial flushing of gas-filled background fractures combined with highly heterogeneous flow paths to the production well are sufficient to explain observed initial production decline. Lastly, these results also suggest that matrix diffusion may support reduced production over longer time frames.« less

Simulation of Ground-Water Flow and Optimization of Withdrawals from Aquifers at the Naval Air Station Patuxent River, St. Mary's County, Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dieter, Cheryl A.; Fleck, William B.

2008-01-01

Potentiometric surfaces in the Piney Point-Nanjemoy, Aquia, and Upper Patapsco aquifers have declined from 1950 through 2000 throughout southern Maryland. In the vicinity of Lexington Park, Maryland, the potentiometric surface in the Aquia aquifer in 2000 was as much as 170 feet below sea level, approximately 150 feet lower than estimated pre-pumping levels before 1940. At the present rate, the water levels will have declined to the regulatory allowable maximum of 80 percent of available drawdown in the Aquia aquifer by about 2050. The effect of the withdrawals from these aquifers by the Naval Air Station Patuxent River and surrounding users on the declining potentiometric surface has raised concern for future availability of ground water. Growth at Naval Air Station Patuxent River may increase withdrawals, resulting in further drawdown. A ground-water-flow model, combined with optimization modeling, was used to develop withdrawal scenarios that minimize the effects (drawdown) of hypothetical future withdrawals. A three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water-flow model was developed to simulate the ground-water-flow system in the Piney Point-Nanjemoy, Aquia, and Upper Patapsco aquifers beneath the Naval Air Station Patuxent River. Transient and steady-state conditions were simulated to give water-resource managers additional tools to manage the ground-water resources. The transient simulation, representing 1900 through 2002, showed that the magnitude of withdrawal has increased over that time, causing ground-water flow to change direction in some areas. The steady-state simulation was linked to an optimization model to determine optimal solutions to hypothetical water-management scenarios. Two optimization scenarios were evaluated. The first scenario was designed to determine the optimal pumping rates for wells screened in the Aquia aquifer within three supply groups to meet a 25-percent increase in withdrawal demands, while minimizing the drawdown at a control location. The resulting optimal solution showed that pumping six wells above the rate required for maintenance produced the least amount of drawdown in the local potentiometric surface. The second hypothetical scenario was designed to determine the optimal location for an additional well in the Aquia aquifer in the northeastern part of the main air station. The additional well was needed to meet an increase in withdrawal of 43,000 cubic feet per day. The optimization model determined the optimal location for the new well, out of a possible 10 locations, while minimizing drawdown at control nodes located outside the western boundary of the main air station. The optimal location is about 1,500 feet to the east-northeast of the existing well.

Extirpation and recolonization in a metapopulation of an endangered fish, the tidewater goby

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, K.D.; Swift, C.C.; Ambrose, R.F.

1999-01-01

The tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi), an endangered species in the United States, occurs in a series of isolated coastal wetlands in California. Using historical presence-absence data and our own surveys, we estimated annual rates of extirpation and recolonization for several populations of the goby in southern California. As predicted, large wetlands had lower rates of extirpation than small wetlands. There was a negative but statistically nonsignificant correlation between recolonization rate and distance to the nearest northerly source population. Populations at small sites were sensitive to drought, presumably because droughts can eliminate suitable habitat at small wetlands. Populations in small wetlands have declined over time, even after accounting for variation in stream flow, supporting the species' endangered status. Our study emphasizes the need to understand metapopulation dynamics for conserving species where the unit of conservation is a local population. It is also emphasizes the importance of not treating metapopulations as identical units. Finally, our results provide a means for describing the decline of a species that is complex in time and space and provide insight into how to target protection measures among metapopulations.

Geomagnetic fluctuations during a polarity transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Audunsson, Haraldur; Levi, Shaul

1997-01-01

The extensive Roza Member of the Columbia River Basalt Group (Washington State) has intermediate paleomagnetic directions, bracketed by underlying normal and overlying reverse polarity flows. A consistent paleomagnetic direction was measured at 11 widely distributed outcrops; the average direction has a declination of 189° and an inclination of -5°, with greater variation in the inclination [Rietman, 1966]. In this study the Roza Member was sampled in two Pasco Basin drillcores, where it is a single cooling unit and its thickness exceeds 50 m. Excellent core recovery allowed uniform and dense sampling of the drillcores. During its protracted cooling, the Roza flow in the drillcores recorded part of a 15.5 Ma geomagnetic polarity transition. The inclination has symmetric, quasicyclic intraflow variation, while the declination is nearly constant, consistent with the results from the outcrops. Thermal models of the cooling flow provide the timing for remanence acquisition. The inclination is inferred to have progressed from 0° to -15° and back to -3°over a period of 15 to 60 years, at rates of 1.6° to 0.5°/yr. Because the geomagnetic intensity was probably weak during the transition, these apparently high rates of change are not significantly different from present-day secular variation. These results agree with the hypothesis that normal secular variation persists through geomagnetic transitions. The Iow-amplitude quasicyclical fluctuations of the field over tens of years, recorded by Roza, suggest that the geomagnetic field reverses in discrete steps, and that more than 15-60 years were required to complete this reversal.

Ground-water flow and numerical simulation of recharge from streamflow infiltration near Pine Nut Creek, Douglas County, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, Douglas K.

2002-01-01

Ground-water flow and recharge from infiltration near Pine Nut Creek, east of Gardnerville, Nevada, were simulated using a single-layer numerical finite-difference model as part of a study made by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Carson Water Subconservancy District. The model was calibrated to 190 water-level measurements made in 27 wells in December 2000, and in 9 wells from August 1999 through April 2001. The purpose of this study was to estimate reasonable limits for the approximate volume of water that may be stored by recharge through infiltration basins, and the rate at which recharged water would dissipate or move towards the valley floor. Measured water levels in the study area show that infiltration from the Allerman Canal and reservoir has created a water-table mound beneath them that decreases the hydraulic gradient east of the canal and increases the gradient west of the canal. North of Pine Nut Creek, the mound causes ground water to flow toward the northern end of the reservoir. South of Pine Nut Creek, relatively high water levels probably are maintained by the mound beneath the Allerman Canal and possibly by greater rates of recharge from the southeast. Water-level declines near Pine Nut Creek from August 1999 through April 2001 probably are caused by dissipation of recharge from infiltration of Pine Nut Creek streamflow in the springs of 1998 and 1999. Using the calibrated model, a simulation of recharge through a hypothetical infiltration basin covering 12.4 acres near Pine Nut Creek applied 700 acre-feet per year of recharge over a six-month period, for a total of 3,500 acre-feet after 5 consecutive years. This recharge requires a diversion rate of about 2 cubic feet per second and an infiltration rate of 0.3 foot per day. The simulations showed that recharge of 3,500 acre-feet caused water levels near the basin to rise over 70 feet, approaching land surface, indicating 3,500 acre-feet is the maximum that may be stored in a 5-year period, given the basin location and surface area used in the simulations. Greater amounts probably could be stored if separate infiltration basins were installed at different locations along the Pine Nut Creek alluvial fan, applying the recharge over a larger area. The water-table mound resulting from recharge extended 7,000 feet north, west, and south of the infiltration basin. After recharge ceased, water levels near the center of the mound declined rapidly to within 20 feet of initial levels after 2 years, and within 10 feet of initial levels after 7 years. The recharge mound dissipates laterally across the modeled area at decreasing rates over time. A water-level rise of 1 foot moved westward towards the valley floor 660 feet from peak conditions after 1 year, and averaged 550 feet, 440 feet, and 330 feet per year for the periods 1-4, 4-7, and 7-10 years, respectively, after recharge ceased. Simulations of subsequent pumping from hypothetical wells near the infiltration basin were made by applying pumping near the basin beginning 1 year after recharge of 3,500 acre-feet ceased. Pumping was applied over a 6-month period for 4 years from one well at 400 acre-feet per year, withdrawing 1,600 acre-feet or 45 percent of that recharged, and from two wells totaling 800 acre-feet per year, withdrawing 3,200 acre-feet or 90 percent of that recharged. Pumping of 1,600 acre-feet caused water-levels near the infiltration basin to decline only slightly below initial levels. Pumping of 3,200 acre-feet caused water-levels near the infiltration basin to decline a maximum of 30 feet below initial levels, with smaller declines extending laterally in all directions for 4,000 feet from the pumping wells. Water-level declines are a result of pumping at a rate sufficient to withdraw the majority of the water recharged through the infiltration basin. Although the declines may affect water levels in nearby domestic wells, the simulations show that water levels recover quickly after

Microstructural Evolution and Dynamic Softening Mechanisms of Al-Zn-Mg-Cu Alloy during Hot Compressive Deformation

PubMed Central

Shi, Cangji; Lai, Jing; Chen, X.-Grant

2014-01-01

The hot deformation behavior and microstructural evolution of an Al-Zn-Mg-Cu (7150) alloy was studied during hot compression at various temperatures (300 to 450 °C) and strain rates (0.001 to 10 s−1). A decline ratio map of flow stresses was proposed and divided into five deformation domains, in which the flow stress behavior was correlated with different microstructures and dynamic softening mechanisms. The results reveal that the dynamic recovery is the sole softening mechanism at temperatures of 300 to 400 °C with various strain rates and at temperatures of 400 to 450 °C with strain rates between 1 and 10 s−1. The level of dynamic recovery increases with increasing temperature and with decreasing strain rate. At the high deformation temperature of 450 °C with strain rates of 0.001 to 0.1 s−1, a partially recrystallized microstructure was observed, and the dynamic recrystallization (DRX) provided an alternative softening mechanism. Two kinds of DRX might operate at the high temperature, in which discontinuous dynamic recrystallization was involved at higher strain rates and continuous dynamic recrystallization was implied at lower strain rates. PMID:28788454

Very low dose gamma irradiation stimulates gaseous exchange and carboxylation efficiency, but inhibits vascular sap flow in groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.).

PubMed

Ahuja, Sumedha; Singh, Bhupinder; Gupta, Vijay Kumar; Singhal, R K; Venu Babu, P

2014-02-01

An experiment was carried out to determine the effect of low dose gamma radiation on germination, plant growth, nitrogen and carbon fixation and carbon flow and release characteristics of groundnut. Dry seeds of groundnut variety Trombay groundnut 37A (TG 37A), a radio mutant type developed by Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Mumbai, India, were subjected to the pre-sowing treatment of gamma radiation within low to high dose physiological range, i.e., 0.0, 0.0082, 0.0164. 0.0328, 0.0656, 0.1312, 5, 25, 100, 500 Gray (Gy) from a cobalt source ((60)Co). Observations were recorded for the radiation effect on percentage germination, vigour, gas exchange attributes such as photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance and transpiration rate, chlorophyll content, root exudation in terms of (14)C release, vascular sap flow rate and activities of rate defining carbon and nitrogen assimilating enzymes such as ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase (rubisco) and nitrate reductase (NR). Seed germination was increased by 10-25% at the lower doses up to 5 Gy while the improvement in plant vigour in the same dose range was much higher (22-84%) than the unirradiated control. For radiation exposure above 5 Gy, a dose-dependent decline in germination and plant vigour was measured. No significant effect was observed on the photosynthesis at radiation exposure below 5 Gy but above 5 Gy dose there was a decline in the photosynthetic rate. Stomatal conductance and transpiration rate, however, were only inhibited at a high dose of 500 Gy. Leaf rubisco activity and NR activities remained unaffected at all the investigated doses of gamma irradiation. Mean root exudation and sap flow rate of the irradiated plants, irrespective of the dose, was reduced over the unirradiated control more so in a dose-dependent manner. Results indicated that a very low dose of gamma radiation, in centigray to gray range, did not pose any threat and in fact stimulated metabolic functions in such a way to aid growth and development of groundnut plants. It further showed that the radiation threshold for the gas exchange traits and rubisco activity, which ultimately determine the plant health and yield, were higher than compared to the other metabolic attributes and were well beyond 500 Gy and that the dose range above 500 Gy should be targeted to measure lethal effects of radiation on carbon assimilation attributes in leguminous crops, in general, and groundnut in particular.

Ground-water hydrology and simulated effects of development in the Milford area, an arid basin in southwestern Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, James L.

1998-01-01

A three-dimensional, finite-difference model was constructed to simulate ground-water flow in the Milford area. The purpose of the study was to evaluate present knowledge and concepts of the groundwater system, to analyze the ability of the model to represent past and current (1984) conditions, and to estimate the effects of various groundwater development alternatives. The alternative patterns of groundwater development might prove effective in capturing natural discharge from the basin-fill aquifer while limiting water-level declines. Water levels measured during this study indicate that ground water in the Milford area flows in a northwesterly direction through consolidated rocks in the northern San Francisco Mountains toward Sevier Lake. The revised potentiometric surface shows a large area for probable basin outflow, indicating that more water leaves the Milford area than the 8 acre-feet per year estimated previously.Simulations made to calibrate the model were able to approximate steady-state conditions for 1927, before ground-water development began, and transient conditions for 1950-82, during which groundwater withdrawal increased. Basin recharge from the consolidated rocks and basin outflow were calculated during the calibration process. Transient simulations using constant and variable recharge from surface water were made to test effects of large flows in the Beaver River.Simulations were made to project water-level declines over a 37- year period (1983-2020) using the present pumping distribution. Ground-water withdrawals were simulated at 1, 1.5, and 2 times the 1979-82 average rate.The concepts of "sustained" yield, ground-water mining, and the capture of natural discharge were tested using several hypothetical pumping distributions over a 600-year simulation period. Simulations using concentrated pumping centers were the least efficient at capturing natural discharge and produced the largest water-level declines. Simulations using strategically placed ground-water withdrawals in the discharge area were the most efficient at eliminating natural discharge with small water-level declines.

Modeling the influence of preferential flow on the spatial variability and time-dependence of mineral weathering rates

DOE PAGES

Pandey, Sachin; Rajaram, Harihar

2016-12-05

Inferences of weathering rates from laboratory and field observations suggest significant scale and time-dependence. Preferential flow induced by heterogeneity (manifest as permeability variations or discrete fractures) has been suggested as one potential mechanism causing scale/time-dependence. In this paper, we present a quantitative evaluation of the influence of preferential flow on weathering rates using reactive transport modeling. Simulations were performed in discrete fracture networks (DFNs) and correlated random permeability fields (CRPFs), and compared to simulations in homogeneous permeability fields. The simulations reveal spatial variability in the weathering rate, multidimensional distribution of reactions zones, and the formation of rough weathering interfaces andmore » corestones due to preferential flow. In the homogeneous fields and CRPFs, the domain-averaged weathering rate is initially constant as long as the weathering front is contained within the domain, reflecting equilibrium-controlled behavior. The behavior in the CRPFs was influenced by macrodispersion, with more spread-out weathering profiles, an earlier departure from the initial constant rate and longer persistence of weathering. DFN simulations exhibited a sustained time-dependence resulting from the formation of diffusion-controlled weathering fronts in matrix blocks, which is consistent with the shrinking core mechanism. A significant decrease in the domain-averaged weathering rate is evident despite high remaining mineral volume fractions, but the decline does not follow a math formula dependence, characteristic of diffusion, due to network scale effects and advection-controlled behavior near the inflow boundary. Finally, the DFN simulations also reveal relatively constant horizontally averaged weathering rates over a significant depth range, challenging the very notion of a weathering front.« less

Modeling the influence of preferential flow on the spatial variability and time-dependence of mineral weathering rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pandey, Sachin; Rajaram, Harihar

Inferences of weathering rates from laboratory and field observations suggest significant scale and time-dependence. Preferential flow induced by heterogeneity (manifest as permeability variations or discrete fractures) has been suggested as one potential mechanism causing scale/time-dependence. In this paper, we present a quantitative evaluation of the influence of preferential flow on weathering rates using reactive transport modeling. Simulations were performed in discrete fracture networks (DFNs) and correlated random permeability fields (CRPFs), and compared to simulations in homogeneous permeability fields. The simulations reveal spatial variability in the weathering rate, multidimensional distribution of reactions zones, and the formation of rough weathering interfaces andmore » corestones due to preferential flow. In the homogeneous fields and CRPFs, the domain-averaged weathering rate is initially constant as long as the weathering front is contained within the domain, reflecting equilibrium-controlled behavior. The behavior in the CRPFs was influenced by macrodispersion, with more spread-out weathering profiles, an earlier departure from the initial constant rate and longer persistence of weathering. DFN simulations exhibited a sustained time-dependence resulting from the formation of diffusion-controlled weathering fronts in matrix blocks, which is consistent with the shrinking core mechanism. A significant decrease in the domain-averaged weathering rate is evident despite high remaining mineral volume fractions, but the decline does not follow a math formula dependence, characteristic of diffusion, due to network scale effects and advection-controlled behavior near the inflow boundary. Finally, the DFN simulations also reveal relatively constant horizontally averaged weathering rates over a significant depth range, challenging the very notion of a weathering front.« less

Hydrogeology and simulation of flow between the alluvial and bedrock aquifers in the upper Black Squirrel Creek basin, El Paso County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watts, K.R.

1995-01-01

Anticipated increases in pumping from the bedrock aquifers in El Paso County potentially could affect the direction and rate of flow between the alluvial and bedrock aquifers and lower water levels in the overlying alluvial aquifer. The alluvial aquifer underlies about 90 square miles in the upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin of eastern El Paso County. The alluvial aquifer consists of unconsolidated alluvial deposits that unconformably overlie siltstones, sandstones, and conglomerate (bedrock aquifers) and claystone, shale, and coal (bedrock confining units) of the Denver Basin. The bedrock aquifers (Dawson, Denver, Arapahoe, and Laramie-Fox Hills aquifers) are separated by confining units (upper and lower Denver and the Laramie confining units) and overlie a relatively thick and impermeable Pierre confining unit. The Pierre confining unit is assumed to be a no-flow boundary at the base of the alluvial/ bedrock aquifer system. During 1949-90, substantial water-level declines, as large as 50 feet, in the alluvial aquifer resulted from withdrawals from the alluvial aquifer for irrigation and municipal supplies. Average recharge to the alluvial aquifer from infiltration of precipitation and surface water was an estimated 11.97 cubic feet per second and from the underlying bedrock aquifers was an estimated 0.87 cubic foot per second. Water-level data from eight bedrock observation wells and eight nearby alluvial wells indicate that, locally, the alluvial and bedrock aquifers probably are hydraulically connected and that the alluvial aquifer in the upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin receives recharge from the Denver and Arapahoe aquifers but-locally recharges the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer. Subsurface-temperature profiles were evaluated as a means of estimating specific discharge across the bedrock surface (the base of the alluvial aquifer). However, assumptions of the analytical method were not met by field conditions and, thus, analyses of subsurface-temperature profiles did not reliably estimate specific discharge across the bedrock surface. The vertical hydraulic diffusivity of a siltstone and sandstone in the lower Denver confining unit was estimated, by an aquifer test, to be about 8 x 10'4 square foot per day. Physical and chemical characteristics of water from the bedrock aquifers in the study area generally differ from the physical and chemical characteristics of water from the alluvial aquifer, except for the physical and chemical characteristics of water from one bedrock well, which is completed in the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer. In the southern part of the study area, physical and chemical characteristics of ground water indicate downward flow of water from the alluvial aquifer to the Laramie-Fox Hills aquifer. A three-dimensional numerical model was used to evaluate flow of water between the alluvial aquifer and underlying bedrock. Simulation of steady-state conditions indicates that flow from the bedrock aquifers to the alluvial aquifer was about 7 percent of recharge to the alluvial aquifer, about 0.87 cubic foot per second. The potential effects of withdrawal from the alluvial and bedrock aquifers at estimated (October 1989 to September 1990) rates and from the bedrock aquifers at two larger hypothetical rates were simulated for a 50-year projection period. The model simulations indicate that water levels in the alluvial aquifer will decline an average of 8.6 feet after 50 years of pumping at estimated October 1989 to September 1990 rates. Increases in withdrawals from the bedrock aquifers in El Paso County were simulated to: (1) Capture flow that currently discharges from the bedrock aquifers to springs and streams in upland areas and to the alluvial aquifer, (2) induce flow downward from the alluvial aquifer, and (3) accelerate the rate of waterlevel decline in the alluvial aquifer.

Changes in Stream Peak Flow and Regulation in Naoli River Watershed as a Result of Wetland Loss

PubMed Central

Yao, Yunlong; Wang, Lei; Lv, Xianguo; Yu, Hongxian; Li, Guofu

2014-01-01

Hydrology helps determine the character of wetlands; wetlands, in turn, regulate water flow, which influences regional hydrology. To understand these dynamics, we studied the Naoli basin where, from 1954 to 2005, intensive marshland cultivation took place, and the watershed's wetland area declined from 94.4 × 104 ha to 17.8 × 104 ha. More than 80% of the wetland area loss was due to conversion to farmland, especially from 1976 to 1986. The processes of transforming wetlands to cultivated land in the whole Naoli basin and subbasins can be described using a first order exponential decay model. To quantify the effects of wetlands cultivation, we analyzed daily rainfall and streamflow data measured from 1955 to 2005 at two stations (Baoqing Station and Caizuizi Station). We defined a streamflow regulation index (SRI) and applied a Mann-Kendall-Sneyers test to further analyze the data. As the wetland area decreased, the peak streamflow at the Caizuizi station increased, and less precipitation generated heavier peak flows, as the runoff was faster than before. The SRI from 1959 to 2005 showed an increasing trend; the SRI rate of increase was 0.05/10a, demonstrating that the watershed's regulation of streamflow regulation was declined as the wetlands disappeared. PMID:25114956

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow and land-surface subsidence in the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers, Houston area, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Strom, Eric W.

2002-01-01

In November 1997, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Houston Utilities Planning Section and the City of Houston Department of Public Works & Engineering, began an investigation of the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers in the greater Houston area in Texas to better understand the hydrology, flow, and associated land-surface subsidence. The principal part of the investigation was a numerical finite-difference model (MODFLOW) developed to simulate ground-water flow and land-surface subsidence in an 18,100-square-mile area encompassing greater Houston.The focus of the study was Harris and Galveston Counties, but other counties were included to achieve the appropriate boundary conditions. The model was vertically discretized into three 103-row by 109-column layers resulting in a total of 33,681 grid cells. Layer 1 represents the water table using a specified head, layer 2 represents the Chicot aquifer, and layer 3 represents the Evangeline aquifer.Simulations were made under transient conditions for 31 ground-water-withdrawal (stress) periods spanning 1891–1996. The years 1977 and 1996 were chosen as potentiometric-surface calibration periods for the model. Simulated and measured potentiometric surfaces of the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers for 1977 match closely. Waterlevel measurements indicate that by 1977, large ground-water withdrawals in east-central and southeastern areas of Harris County had caused the potentiometric surfaces to decline as much as 250 feet below sea level in the Chicot aquifer and as much as 350 feet below sea level in the Evangeline aquifer. Simulated and measured potentiometric surfaces of the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers for 1996 also match closely. The large potentiometric-surface decline in 1977 in the southeastern Houston area showed significant recovery by 1996. The 1996 centers of potentiometric-surface decline are located much farther northwest. Potentiometric-surface declines of more than 200 feet below sea level in the Chicot aquifer and more than 350 feet below sea level in the Evangeline aquifer were measured in observation wells and simulated in the flow model.Simulation of land-surface subsidence and water released from storage in the clay layers was accomplished using the Interbed-Storage Package of the MODFLOW model. Land-surface subsidence was calibrated by comparing simulated long-term (1891–1995) and short-term (1978–95) land-surface subsidence with published maps of land-surface subsidence for about the same period until acceptable matches were achieved.Simulated 1996 Chicot aquifer flow rates indicate that a net flow of 562.5 cubic feet per second enters the Chicot aquifer in the outcrop area, and a net flow of 459.5 cubic feet per second passes through the Chicot aquifer into the Evangeline aquifer. The remaining 103.0 cubic feet per second of flow is withdrawn as pumpage, with a shortfall of about 84.9 cubic feet per second supplied to the wells from storage in sands and clays. Water simulated from storage in clays in the Chicot aquifer is about 19 percent of the total water withdrawn from the aquifer.Simulated 1996 Evangeline aquifer flow rates indicate that a net flow of 14.8 cubic feet per second enters the Evangeline aquifer in the outcrop area, and a net flow of 459.5 cubic feet per second passes through the Chicot aquifer into the Evangeline aquifer for a total inflow of 474.3 cubic feet per second. A greater amount, 528.6 cubic feet per second, is withdrawn by wells; the shortfall of about 54.8 cubic feet per second is supplied from storage in sands and clays. Water simulated from storage in clays in the Evangeline aquifer is about 10 percent of the total water withdrawn from the aquifer.

Cardiorespiratory fitness modifies the relationship between myocardial function and cerebral blood flow in older adults.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathan F; Gold, Brian T; Bailey, Alison L; Clasey, Jody L; Hakun, Jonathan G; White, Matthew; Long, Doug E; Powell, David K

2016-05-01

A growing body of evidence indicates that cardiorespiratory fitness attenuates some age-related cerebral declines. However, little is known about the role that myocardial function plays in this relationship. Brain regions with high resting metabolic rates, such as the default mode network (DMN), may be especially vulnerable to age-related declines in myocardial functions affecting cerebral blood flow (CBF). This study explored the relationship between a measure of myocardial mechanics, global longitudinal strain (GLS), and CBF to the DMN. In addition, we explored how cardiorespiratory affects this relationship. Participants were 30 older adults between the ages of 59 and 69 (mean age=63.73years, SD=2.8). Results indicated that superior cardiorespiratory fitness and myocardial mechanics were positively associated with DMN CBF. Moreover, results of a mediation analysis revealed that the relationship between GLS and DMN CBF was accounted for by individual differences in fitness. Findings suggest that benefits of healthy heart function to brain function are modified by fitness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Why do they not answer and do they really learn? A case study in analysing student response flows in introductory physics using an audience response system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jääskeläinen, Markku; Lagerkvist, Andreas

2017-07-01

In this paper we investigate teaching with a classroom response system in introductory physics with emphasis on two issues. First, we discuss retention between question rounds and the reasons why students avoid answering the question a second time. A question with declining response rate was followed by a question addressing the student reasons for not answering. We find that there appear to be several reasons for the observed decline, and that the students need to be reminded. We argue that small drops are unimportant as the process appears to work despite the drops. Second, we discuss the dynamics of learning in a concept-sequence in electromagnetism, where a majority of the students, despite poor statistics in a first round, manage to answer a followup question correctly. In addition, we analyse the response times for both situations to connect with research on student reasoning on situations with misconception-like answers. From the combination of the answer flows and response time behaviours we find it plausible that conceptual learning occurred during the discussion phase.

Onset of and recovery from nitrogen stress during reproductive growth of soybean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henry, L. T.; Raper, C. D. Jr; Rideout, J. W.; Raper CD, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1992-01-01

Photosynthetic rates and allocation of dry matter, nitrogen, and nonstructural carbohydrates were determined during onset of and recovery from a nitrogen stress for reproductive soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merrill cv Ransom) plants. Until the beginning of seed fill, non-nodulated plants were grown in flowing solution culture with 1.0 mM NO3- in a complete nutrient solution. One set of plants then was transferred to minus-nitrogen solution for 24 d of seed fill; a second set was transferred to a minus-nitrogen solution for 14 d followed by return to the complete solution with 1.0 mM NO3- for the remaining 10 d of seed fill; and a third set was continued on the complete solution. Net CO2 exchange rates of individual leaves, which remained nearly constant during seed fill for nonstressed plants, declined at an accelerated rate during onset of nitrogen stress as the specific content of reduced nitrogen in the leaves was decreased by remobilization of nitrogen to support pod growth. The rate of nitrogen remobilization out of leaves initially was relatively greater than the decrease in photosynthetic rate. While rate of pod growth declined in response to the developing nitrogen stress, photosynthetic assimilation of carbon exceeded reproductive demand and nonstructural carbohydrates accumulated within tissues. Following resupply of exogenous NO3-, specific rate of NO3- uptake by roots was enhanced relative to nonstressed plants. While there was little increase in content of reduced nitrogen in leaves, net remobilization of nitrogen out of leaves ceased, and the decline in photosynthetic rate stabilized at about 51% of that for nonstressed plants. This level of photosynthesis, combined with the availability of elevated pools of carbohydrates accumulated during stress, was sufficient to support the increases in both the specific rates of NO3- uptake and the rate of pod growth during recovery.

Three-year decline of magmatic CO2 emissions from soils of a Mammoth Mountain tree kill: Horseshoe Lake, CA, 1995-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerlach, T.M.; Doukas, M.P.; McGee, K.A.; Kessler, R.

1998-01-01

We used the closed chamber method to measure soil CO2 efflux over a three-year period at the Horseshoe Lake tree kill (HLTK) - the largest tree kill on Mammoth Mountain in central eastern California. Efflux contour maps show a significant decline in the areas and rates of CO2 emission from 1995 to 1997. The emission rate fell from 350 t d-1 (metric tons per day) in 1995 to 130 t d-1 in 1997. The trend suggests a return to background soil CO2 efflux levels by early to mid 1999 and may reflect exhaustion of CO2 in a deep reservoir of accumulated gas and/or mechanical closure or sealing of fault conduits transmitting gas to the surface. However, emissions rose to 220 t d-1 on 23 September 1997 at the onset of a degassing event that lasted until 5 December 1997. Recent reservoir recharge and/or extension-enhanced gas flow may have caused the degassing event.

Maple sap uptake, exudation, and pressure changes correlated with freezing exotherms and thawing endotherms.

PubMed

Tyree, M T

1983-10-01

Sap flow rates and sap pressure changes were measured in dormant sugar maple trees (Acer saccharum Marsh.). In the forest, sap flow rates and pressure changes were measured from tap holes drilled into tree trunks in mature trees and sap flow rates were measured from the base of excised branches. Excised branches were also brought into the laboratory where air temperature could be carefully controlled in a refrigerated box and sap flow rates and sap pressures were measured from the cut base of the branches.Under both forest and laboratory conditions, sap uptake occurred as the wood temperature declined but much more rapid sap uptake correlated with the onset of the freezing exotherm. When sap pressures were measured under conditions of negligible volume displacement, the sap pressure rapidly fell to -60 to -80 kilopascals at the start of the freezing exotherm. The volume of water uptake and the rate of uptake depended on the rate of freezing. A slow freezing rate correlated with a large volume of water uptake, a fast freezing rate induced a smaller volume of water uptake. The volume of water uptake ranged from 0.02 to 0.055 grams water per gram dry weight of sapwood. The volume of water exuded after thawing was usually less than the volume of uptake so that after several freezing and thawing cycles the sapwood water content increased from 0.7 to 0.8 grams water per gram dry weight.These results are discussed in terms of a physical model of the mechanism of maple sap uptake and exudation first proposed by P. E. R. O'Malley. The proposed mechanism of sap uptake is by vapor distillation in air filled wood fiber lumina during the freezing of minor branches. Gravity and pressurized air bubbles (compressed during freezing) cause sap flow from the canopy down the tree after the thaw.

Maple Sap Uptake, Exudation, and Pressure Changes Correlated with Freezing Exotherms and Thawing Endotherms 1

PubMed Central

Tyree, Melvin T.

1983-01-01

Sap flow rates and sap pressure changes were measured in dormant sugar maple trees (Acer saccharum Marsh.). In the forest, sap flow rates and pressure changes were measured from tap holes drilled into tree trunks in mature trees and sap flow rates were measured from the base of excised branches. Excised branches were also brought into the laboratory where air temperature could be carefully controlled in a refrigerated box and sap flow rates and sap pressures were measured from the cut base of the branches. Under both forest and laboratory conditions, sap uptake occurred as the wood temperature declined but much more rapid sap uptake correlated with the onset of the freezing exotherm. When sap pressures were measured under conditions of negligible volume displacement, the sap pressure rapidly fell to −60 to −80 kilopascals at the start of the freezing exotherm. The volume of water uptake and the rate of uptake depended on the rate of freezing. A slow freezing rate correlated with a large volume of water uptake, a fast freezing rate induced a smaller volume of water uptake. The volume of water uptake ranged from 0.02 to 0.055 grams water per gram dry weight of sapwood. The volume of water exuded after thawing was usually less than the volume of uptake so that after several freezing and thawing cycles the sapwood water content increased from 0.7 to 0.8 grams water per gram dry weight. These results are discussed in terms of a physical model of the mechanism of maple sap uptake and exudation first proposed by P. E. R. O'Malley. The proposed mechanism of sap uptake is by vapor distillation in air filled wood fiber lumina during the freezing of minor branches. Gravity and pressurized air bubbles (compressed during freezing) cause sap flow from the canopy down the tree after the thaw. PMID:16663208

Declining ambient air pollution and lung function improvement in Austrian children

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuberger, Manfred; Moshammer, Hanns; Kundi, Michael

Three thousand four hundred fifty-one Austrian elementary school children were examined (between 2 and 8 times) by spirometry by standardized methods, over a 5 yr period. The districts where they lived were grouped into those where NO 2 declined during this period (by at least 30 μg/m 3 measured as half year means) and those with less or no decline in ambient NO 2. In both groups of districts, SO 2 and TSP fell by similar amounts over this period. A continuous improvement of MEF25 (maximum exspiratory flow rate at 25% vital capacity) was found in districts with declining ambient NO 2. Populations did not differ in respect of anthropometric factors, passive smoking or socioeconomic status. A birth cohort from this study population which was followed up to age 18 confirmed the improved growth of MEF25 with decline in NO 2, while the improved growth of forced vital capacity was more related to decline in SO 2. This study provides the first evidence that improvements in the outdoor air quality during the 1980s are correlated with health benefits, and suggest that adverse effects on lung function related to ambient air pollution are reversible before adulthood. Improvement of small airway functions appeared to be more dependent on reductions of NO 2 than reduction in SO 2 and TSP.

Effects of stream flow intermittency on riparian vegetation of a semiarid region river (San Pedro River, Arizona)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stromberg, J.C.; Bagstad, K.J.; Leenhouts, J.M.; Lite, S.J.; Makings, E.

2005-01-01

The San Pedro River in the southwestern United States retains a natural flood regime and has several reaches with perennial stream flow and shallow ground water. However, much of the river flows intermittently. Urbanization-linked declines in regional ground-water levels have raised concerns over the future status of the riverine ecosystem in some parts of the river, while restoration-linked decreases in agricultural ground-water pumping are expected to increase stream flows in other parts. This study describes the response of the streamside herbaceous vegetation to changes in stream flow permanence. During the early summer dry season, streamside herbaceous cover and species richness declined continuously across spatial gradients of flow permanence, and composition shifted from hydric to mesic species at sites with more intermittent flow. Hydrologic threshold values were evident for one plant functional group: Schoenoplectus acutus, Juncus torreyi, and other hydric riparian plants declined sharply in cover with loss of perennial stream flow. In contrast, cover of mesic riparian perennials (including Cynodon dactylon, an introduced species) increased at sites with intermittent flow. Patterns of hydric and mesic riparian annuals varied by season: in the early summer dry season their cover declined continuously as flow became more intermittent, while in the late summer wet season their cover increased as the flow became more intermittent. Periodic drought at the intermittent sites may increase opportunities for establishment of these annuals during the monsoonal flood season. During the late summer flood season, stream flow was present at most sites, and fewer vegetation traits were correlated with flow permanence; cover and richness were correlated with other environmental factors including site elevation and substrate nitrate level and particle size. Although perennial-flow and intermittent-flow sites support different streamside plant communities, all of the plant functional groups are abundant at perennial-flow sites when viewing the ecosystem at broader spatial and temporal scales: mesic riparian perennials are common in the floodplain zone adjacent to the river channel and late-summer hydric and mesic annuals are periodically abundant after large floods. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In-situ observations of a bi-modal ion distribution in the outer coma of comet P/Halley

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomsen, M. F.; Feldman, W. C.; Wilken, B.; Jockers, K.; Stuedemann, W.

1987-01-01

Observations obtained by the Johnstone Plasma Analyzer on the Giotto fly-by of comet Halley showed a fairly sudden decrease in the count rate of energetic (about 30 KeV) water-group ions inside about 500,000 km from the nucleus. This decrease was accompanied by the appearance of a new water-group ion population at slightly lower energies (less than 10 KeV). Close inspection reveals that this lower-energy peak was also present somewhat earlier in the postshock flow but only became prominent near the sudden transition just described. It is shown that the observed bimodal ion distribution is well explained in terms of the velocity history of the accreting solar wind flow in the outer coma. The decline in count rate of the energetic pick-up distribution is due to a relatively sudden slowing of the bulk flow there and not to a loss of particles. Hence, charge-exchange cooling of the flow is probably not important at these distances from the nucleus. The observations suggest that pitch-angle scattering is fairly efficient at least after the bow shock, but that energy diffusion is probably not very efficient.

Functional electrical stimulation to the abdominal wall muscles synchronized with the expiratory flow does not induce muscle fatigue.

PubMed

Okuno, Yukako; Takahashi, Ryoichi; Sewa, Yoko; Ohse, Hirotaka; Imura, Shigeyuki; Tomita, Kazuhide

2017-03-01

[Purpose] Continuous electrical stimulation of abdominal wall muscles is known to induce mild muscle fatigue. However, it is not clear whether this is also true for functional electrical stimulation delivered only during the expiratory phase of breathing. This study aimed to examine whether or not intermittent electrical stimulation delivered to abdominal wall muscles induces muscle fatigue. [Subjects and Methods] The subjects were nine healthy adults. Abdominal electrical stimulation was applied for 1.5 seconds from the start of expiration and then turned off during inspiration. The electrodes were attached to both sides of the abdomen at the lower margin of the 12th rib. Abdominal electrical stimulation was delivered for 15 minutes with the subject in a seated position. Expiratory flow was measured during stimulus. Trunk flexor torque and electromyography activity were measured to evaluate abdominal muscle fatigue. [Results] The mean stimulation on/off ratio was 1:2.3. The declining rate of abdominal muscle torque was 61.1 ± 19.1% before stimulus and 56.5 ± 20.9% after stimulus, not significantly different. The declining rate of mean power frequency was 47.8 ± 11.7% before stimulus and 47.9 ± 10.2% after stimulus, not significantly different. [Conclusion] It was found that intermittent electrical stimulation to abdominal muscles synchronized with the expiratory would not induce muscle fatigue.

Wash water waste pretreatment system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

Investigations were completed on wash waters based on each candidate personal cleansing agent. Evaluations of coagulants, antifoam agents, and the effect of promising antifoams on the chemical precipitation were included. Based on these evaluations two candidate soaps as well as their companion antifoam agents were selected for further work. Operating parameters included the effect of soap concentration, ferric chloride concentration, duration of mixing, and pore size of depth filters on the degree of soap removal. The effect of pressure on water flow through filter cartridges and on the rate of decline of water flow was also investigated. The culmination of the program was the recommendation of a pretreatment concept based on chemical precipitation followed by pressure filtration.

The hyperventilation-induced ischaemia model in human neuropharmacology: neurophysiological and psychometric studies of aniracetam and 3-OH aniracetam.

PubMed

Kraaier, V; van Huffelen, A C; Wieneke, G H

1989-01-01

Standardized hyperventilation in young subjects induces changes in the EEG, a decrease in the velocity of the cerebral blood flow and a decline in cognitive performance, which are comparable to those occurring in patients with cerebral ischaemia. The anti-ischaemic properties of aniracetam and 3-OH aniracetam were tested in this model. A single oral dose of 3-OH aniracetam 1500 mg appeared to have the most pronounced effect on hyperventilation-induced EEG changes and cognitive deterioration. The test drugs had no effect on the heart rate or blood flow velocity. The effects agree with those of other drugs classified as noötropics.

PET imaging in the assessment of normal and impaired cognitive function.

PubMed

Silverman, Daniel H S; Alavi, Abass

2005-01-01

PET has been used to directly quantify several processes relevant to the status of cerebral health and function, including cerebral blood flow, cerebral blood volume, cerebral rate of oxygen metabolism, and cerebral glucose use. Clinically, the most commonly performed PET studies of the brain are performed with fluorine-18-fluorodeoxyglucose as the imaged radiopharmaceutical. Such scans have demonstrated diagnostic and prognostic use in evaluating patients who have cognitive impairment, and in distinguishing among primary neurodegenerative dementias and other causes of cognitive decline. In certain pathologic circumstances, the normal coupling between blood flow and metabolic needs may be disturbed, and changes in oxygen extraction fraction can have significant prognostic value.

Twenty-year inter-annual trends and seasonal variations in precipitation and stream water chemistry at the Bear Brook Watershed in Maine, USA.

PubMed

Navrátil, Tomas; Norton, Stephen A; Fernandez, Ivan J; Nelson, Sarah J

2010-12-01

Mean annual concentration of SO4(-2) in wet-only deposition has decreased between 1988 and 2006 at the paired watershed study at Bear Brook Watershed in Maine, USA (BBWM) due to substantially decreased emissions of SO(2). Emissions of NO(x) have not changed substantially, but deposition has declined slightly at BBWM. Base cations, NH4+, and Cl(-) concentrations were largely unchanged, with small irregular changes of <1 μeq L(-1) per year from 1988 to 2006. Precipitation chemistry, hydrology, vegetation, and temperature drive seasonal stream chemistry. Low flow periods were typical in June-October, with relatively greater contributions of deeper flow solutions with higher pH; higher concentrations of acid-neutralizing capacity, Si, and non-marine Na; and low concentrations of inorganic Al. High flow periods during November-May were typically dominated by solutions following shallow flow paths, which were characterized by lower pH and higher Al and DOC concentrations. Biological activity strongly controlled NO3- and K(+). They were depressed during the growing season and elevated in the fall. Since 1987, East Bear Brook (EB), the reference stream, has been slowly responding to reduced but still elevated acid deposition. Calcium and Mg have declined fairly steadily and faster than SO4(-2), with consequent acidification (lower pH and higher inorganic Al). Eighteen years of experimental treatment with (NH(4))(2)SO(4) enhanced acidification of West Bear Brook's (WB) watershed. Despite the manipulation, NH4+ concentration remained below detection limits at WB, while leaching of NO3- increased. The seasonal pattern for NO3- concentrations in WB, however, remained similar to EB. Mean monthly concentrations of SO4(-2) have increased in WB since 1989, initially only during periods of high flow, but gradually also during base flow. Increases in mean monthly concentrations of Ca(2+), Mg(2+), and K(+) due to the manipulation occurred from 1989 until about 1995, during the depletion of base cations in shallow flow paths in WB. Progressive depletion of Ca and Mg at greater soil depth occurred, causing stream concentrations to decline to pre-manipulation values. Mean monthly Si concentrations did not change in EB or WB, suggesting that the manipulation had no effect on mineral weathering rates. DOC concentrations in both streams did not exhibit inter- or intra-annual trends.

Physiological thermoregulation in a crustacean? Heart rate hysteresis in the freshwater crayfish Cherax destructor.

PubMed

Goudkamp, Jacqueline E; Seebacher, Frank; Ahern, Mark; Franklin, Craig E

2004-07-01

Differential heart rates during heating and cooling (heart rate hysteresis) are an important thermoregulatory mechanism in ectothermic reptiles. We speculate that heart rate hysteresis has evolved alongside vascularisation, and to determine whether this phenomenon occurs in a lineage with vascularised circulatory systems that is phylogenetically distant from reptiles, we measured the response of heart rate to convective heat transfer in the Australian freshwater crayfish, Cherax destructor. Heart rate during convective heating (from 20 to 30 degrees C) was significantly faster than during cooling for any given body temperature. Heart rate declined rapidly immediately following the removal of the heat source, despite only negligible losses in body temperature. This heart rate 'hysteresis' is similar to the pattern reported in many reptiles and, by varying peripheral blood flow, it is presumed to confer thermoregulatory benefits particularly given the thermal sensitivity of many physiological rate functions in crustaceans.

Increased Circulating Endothelial Apoptotic Microparticle to Endothelial Progenitor Cell Ratio Is Associated with Subsequent Decline in Glomerular Filtration Rate in Hypertensive Patients

PubMed Central

Hsu, Chien-Yi; Huang, Po-Hsun; Chiang, Chia-Hung; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Huang, Chin-Chou; Chen, Jaw-Wen; Lin, Shing-Jong

2013-01-01

Background Recent research indicates hypertensive patients with microalbuminuria have decreased endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) and increased levels of endothelial apoptotic microparticles (EMP). However, whether these changes are related to a subsequent decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) remains unclear. Methods and Results We enrolled totally 100 hypertensive out-patients with eGFR ≥30 mL/min/1.73 m2. The mean annual rate of GFR decline (△GFR/y) was −1.49±3.26 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year during the follow-up period (34±6 months). Flow cytometry was used to assess circulating EPC (CD34+/KDR+) and EMP levels (CD31+/annexin V+) in peripheral blood. The △GFR/y was correlated with the EMP to EPC ratio (r = −0.465, p<0.001), microalbuminuria (r = −0.329, p = 0.001), and the Framingham risk score (r = −0.245, p = 0.013). When we divided the patients into 4 groups according to the EMP to EPC ratio, there was an association between the EMP to EPC ratio and the ΔGFR/y (mean ΔGFR/y: 0.08±3.04 vs. −0.50±2.84 vs. −1.25±2.49 vs. −4.42±2.82, p<0.001). Multivariate analysis indicated that increased EMP to EPC ratio is an independent predictor of ΔeGFR/y. Conclusions An increased circulating EMP to EPC ratio is associated with subsequent decline in GFR in hypertensive patients, which suggests endothelial damage with reduced vascular repair capacity may contribute to further deterioration of renal function in patients with hypertension. PMID:23874701

No evidence of metabolic depression in Western Alaskan juvenile Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus).

PubMed

Hoopes, Lisa A; Rea, Lorrie D; Christ, Aaron; Worthy, Graham A J

2014-01-01

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) populations have undergone precipitous declines through their western Alaskan range over the last four decades with the leading hypothesis to explain this decline centering around changing prey quality, quantity, or availability for this species (i.e., nutritional stress hypothesis). Under chronic conditions of reduced food intake sea lions would conserve energy by limiting energy expenditures through lowering of metabolic rate known as metabolic depression. To examine the potential for nutritional stress, resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body composition were measured in free-ranging juvenile Steller sea lions (N = 91) at three distinct geographical locations (Southeast Alaska, Prince William Sound, Central Aleutian Islands) using open-flow respirometry and deuterium isotope dilution, respectively. Average sea lion RMR ranged from 6.7 to 36.2 MJ d(-1) and was influenced by body mass, total body lipid, and to a lesser extent, ambient air temperature and age. Sea lion pups captured in the Aleutian Islands (region of decline) had significantly greater body mass and total body lipid stores when compared to pups from Prince William Sound (region of decline) and Southeast Alaska (stable region). Along with evidence of robust body condition in Aleutian Island pups, no definitive differences were detected in RMR between sea lions sampled between eastern and western populations that could not be accounted for by higher percent total body lipid content, suggesting that that at the time of this study, Steller sea lions were not experiencing metabolic depression in the locations studied.

A framework to assess the impacts of climate change on stream health indicators in Michigan watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woznicki, S. A.; Nejadhashemi, A. P.; Tang, Y.; Wang, L.

2016-12-01

Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse impacts to aquatic ecosystem health at the reach-scale, watershed climate change adaptation strategies can be developed and prioritized. The objective of this research was to quantify the impacts of climate change on stream health in seven Michigan watersheds. A process-based watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was linked to adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferenced (ANFIS) stream health models. SWAT models were used to simulate reach-scale flow regime (magnitude, frequency, timing, duration, and rate of change) and water quality variables. The ANFIS models were developed based on relationships between the in-stream variables and sampling points of four stream health indicators: the fish index of biotic integrity (IBI), macroinvertebrate family index of biotic integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI), and number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa. The combined SWAT-ANFIS models extended stream health predictions to all watershed reaches. A climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was used to develop projections of changes to flow regime (using SWAT) and stream health indicators (using ANFIS) from a baseline of 1980-2000 to 2020-2040. Flow regime variables representing variability, duration of extreme events, and timing of low and high flow events were sensitive to changes in climate. The stream health indicators were relatively insensitive to changing climate at the watershed scale. However, there were many instances of individual reaches that were projected to experience declines in stream health. Using the probability of stream health decline coupled with the magnitude of the decline, maps of vulnerable stream ecosystems were developed, which can be used in the watershed management decision-making process.

Ongoing hydrothermal heat loss from the 1912 ash-flow sheet, Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hogeweg, N.; Keith, T.E.C.; Colvard, E.M.; Ingebritsen, S.E.

2005-01-01

The June 1912 eruption of Novarupta filled nearby glacial valleys on the Alaska Peninsula with ash-flow tuff (ignimbrite), and post-eruption observations of thousands of steaming fumaroles led to the name 'Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes' (VTTS). By the late 1980s most fumarolic activity had ceased, but the discovery of thermal springs in mid-valley in 1987 suggested continued cooling of the ash-flow sheet. Data collected at the mid-valley springs between 1987 and 2001 show a statistically significant correlation between maximum observed chloride (Cl) concentration and temperature. These data also show a statistically significant decline in the maximum Cl concentration. The observed variation in stream chemistry across the sheet strongly implies that most solutes, including Cl, originate within the area of the VTTS occupied by the 1912 deposits. Numerous measurements of Cl flux in the Ukak River just below the ash-flow sheet suggest an ongoing heat loss of ???250 MW. This represents one of the largest hydrothermal heat discharges in North America. Other hydrothermal discharges of comparable magnitude are related to heat obtained from silicic magma bodies at depth, and are quasi-steady on a multidecadal time scale. However, the VTTS hydrothermal flux is not obviously related to a magma body and is clearly declining. Available data provide reasonable boundary and initial conditions for simple transient modeling. Both an analytical, conduction-only model and a numerical model predict large rates of heat loss from the sheet 90 years after deposition.

Aging blunts hyperventilation-induced hypocapnia and reduction in cerebral blood flow velocity during maximal exercise.

PubMed

Marsden, K R; Haykowsky, M J; Smirl, J D; Jones, H; Nelson, M D; Altamirano-Diaz, Luis A; Gelinas, J C; Tzeng, Y C; Smith, K J; Willie, C K; Bailey, D M; Ainslie, P N

2012-06-01

Cerebral blood flow (CBF) increases from rest to ∼60% of peak oxygen uptake (VO(2peak)) and thereafter decreases towards baseline due to hyperventilation-induced hypocapnia and subsequent cerebral vasoconstriction. It is unknown what happens to CBF in older adults (OA), who experience a decline in CBF at rest coupled with a blunted ventilatory response during VO(2peak). In 14 OA (71 ± 10 year) and 21 young controls (YA; 23 ± 4 years), we hypothesized that OA would experience less hyperventilation-induced cerebral vasoconstriction and therefore an attenuated reduction in CBF at VO(2peak). Incremental exercise was performed on a cycle ergometer, whilst bilateral middle cerebral artery blood flow velocity (MCA V (mean); transcranial Doppler ultrasound), heart rate (HR; ECG) and end-tidal PCO(2) (P(ET)CO(2)) were monitored continuously. Blood pressure (BP) was monitored intermittently. From rest to 50% of VO(2peak), despite greater elevations in BP in OA, the change in MCA V(mean) was greater in YA compared to OA (28% vs. 15%, respectively; P < 0.0005). In the YA, at intensities >70% of VO(2peak), the hyperventilation-induced declines in both P(ET)CO(2) (14 mmHg (YA) vs. 4 mmHg (OA); P < 0.05) and MCA V(mean) (-21% (YA) vs. -7% (OA); P < 0.0005) were greater in YA compared to OA. Our findings show (1), from rest-to-mild intensity exercise (50% VO(2peak)), elevations in CBF are reduced in OA and (2) age-related declines in hyperventilation during maximal exercise result in less hypocapnic-induced cerebral vasoconstriction.

Industry contributions to aggregate workplace injury and illness rate trends: 1992-2008.

PubMed

Ruser, John W

2014-10-01

Aggregate workplace injury and illness rates have generally declined over the past quarter century. Assessing which industries contributed to these declines is hampered by industry coding changes that broke time series data. Ratios were estimated to convert older incidence rate data to current industry codes and to create long industry time series from data of the BLS Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses. These data were used to assess contributions to aggregate trends from within-industry incidence rate trends and across-industry hours shifts. Hours shifts toward safer industries do not explain aggregate incidence rate declines. Rather declines resulted from within-industry declines. The top 20 contributors out of 307 industries account for 40 percent of the decline and include both goods-producing and service-providing industries. These data help focus future research on industries responsible for rate declines and factors hypothesized as contributing to declines. © Published 2014 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Simulated effects of ground-water management scenarios on the Santa Fe group aquifer system, Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico, 2001-40

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bexfield, Laura M.; McAda, Douglas P.

2003-01-01

Future conditions in the Santa Fe Group aquifer system through 2040 were simulated using the most recent revision of the U.S. Geological Survey groundwater- flow model for the Middle Rio Grande Basin. Three simulations were performed to investigate the likely effects of different scenarios of future groundwater pumping by the City of Albuquerque on the ground-water system. For simulation I, pumping was held constant at known year-2000 rates. For simulation II, pumping was increased to simulate the use of pumping to meet all projected city water demand through 2040. For simulation III, pumpingwas reduced in accordance with a plan by the City of Albuquerque to use surfacewater to meet most of the projectedwater demand. The simulations indicate that for each of the three pumping scenarios, substantial additional watertable declines would occur in some areas of the basin through 2040. However, the reduced pumping scenario of simulation III also results in water-table rise over a broad area of the city. All three scenarios indicate that the contributions of aquifer storage and river leakage to the ground-water system would change between 2000 and 2040. Comparisons among the results for simulations I, II, and III indicate that the various pumping scenarios have substantially different effects on water-level declines in the Albuquerque area and on the contribution of each water-budget component to the total budget for the ground-water system. Between 2000 and 2040, water-level declines for continued pumping at year-2000 rates are as much as 120 feet greater than for reduced pumping; water-level declines for increased pumping to meet all projected city demand are as much as 160 feet greater. Over the same time period, reduced pumping results in retention in aquifer storage of about 1,536,000 acre-feet of ground water as compared with continued pumping at year- 2000 rates and of about 2,257,000 acre-feet as compared with increased pumping. The quantity of water retained in the Rio Grande as a result of reduced pumping and the associated decrease in induced recharge from the river is about 731,000 acre-feet as compared with continued pumping at year-2000 rates and about 872,000 acre-feet as compared with increased pumping. Reduced pumping results in slight increases in the quantity of water lost from the groundwater system to evapotranspiration and agriculturaldrain flow compared with the other pumping scenarios.

Impact of microbial activity on the hydraulic properties of fractured chalk.

PubMed

Arnon, Shai; Adar, Eilon; Ronen, Zeev; Yakirevich, Alexander; Nativ, Ronit

2005-02-01

The impact of microbial activity on fractured chalk transmissivity was investigated on a laboratory scale. Long-term experiments were conducted on six fractured chalk cores (20 cm diameter, 23-44 cm long) containing a single natural fracture embedded in a porous matrix. Biodegradation experiments were conducted under various conditions, including several substrate and oxygen concentrations and flow rates. 2,4,6-Tribromophenol (TBP) was used as a model contaminant (substrate). TBP biodegradation efficiency depended mainly on the amount of oxygen. However, under constant oxygen concentration at the core inlet, elevating the flow rates increased the removal rate of TBP. Transmissivity reduction was clearly related to TBP removal rate, following an initial slow decline and a further sharp decrease with time. The fracture's transmissivity was reduced by as much as 97% relative to the initial value, with no leveling off of the clogging process. For the most extreme cases, reductions of 262 and 157 microm in the equivalent hydraulic apertures were recorded for fractures with initial apertures of 495 and 207 microm, respectively. The reductions in fracture transmissivity occurred primarily because of clogging by bacterial cells and extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) produced by the bacteria. Most of the biodegradation activity was concentrated near the fracture inlet, where the most suitable biodegradation conditions (nutrients and oxygen) prevailed, suggesting that the clogging had occurred in that vicinity. The clogging must have changed the structure of the fracture void, thereby reducing the active volume participating in flow and transport processes. This phenomenon caused accelerated transport of non-reactive tracers and doubled the fracture's dispersivity under constant flow rates.

26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is... declining balance rate may be determined without resort to formula. Such rate determined under section 167(b...

26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is... declining balance rate may be determined without resort to formula. Such rate determined under section 167(b...

Application of decline curve analysis to estimate recovery factors for carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jahediesfanjani, Hossein

2017-07-17

IntroductionIn the decline curve analysis (DCA) method of estimating recoverable hydrocarbon volumes, the analyst uses historical production data from a well, lease, group of wells (or pattern), or reservoir and plots production rates against time or cumu­lative production for the analysis. The DCA of an individual well is founded on the same basis as the fluid-flow principles that are used for pressure-transient analysis of a single well in a reservoir domain and therefore can provide scientifically reasonable and accurate results. However, when used for a group of wells, a lease, or a reservoir, the DCA becomes more of an empirical method. Plots from the DCA reflect the reservoir response to the oil withdrawal (or production) under the prevailing operating and reservoir conditions, and they continue to be good tools for estimating recoverable hydrocarbon volumes and future production rates. For predicting the total recov­erable hydrocarbon volume, the DCA results can help the analyst to evaluate the reservoir performance under any of the three phases of reservoir productive life—primary, secondary (waterflood), or tertiary (enhanced oil recovery) phases—so long as the historical production data are sufficient to establish decline trends at the end of the three phases.

Pulmonary functions in air conditioner users.

PubMed

Khaliq, Farah; Sharma, Sameer; Tandon, O P

2006-01-01

Air conditioning may affect human health since it has profound effect on our environment, than just lowering temperature. The present study was planned to assess the effect of air conditioners (AC) on pulmonary functions in young healthy non-smoker males. The study group comprised of ten subjects who were using AC's in their cars for at least 1 hr daily since last 6 months. While ten subjects who did not use AC at all served as controls. The pulmonary functions were assessed using PK Morgan 232 spirometer in a closed room. The peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) and Forced expiratory flow between 25-75% of vital capacity (FEF25-75) were significantly reduced in subjects using car AC's. Inspiratory flow rates also showed a trend towards decline in AC users but could not reach the level of significance. The lung volumes and capacities were not significantly different in the two groups except for forced expiratory volume in 0.5 sec (FEV 0.5 sec), which also decreased in AC users. The airway resistance and lung compliance did not show significant change. In the presence of normal FEV1, reduced FEF25-75% which is the flow rate over the middle half of vital capacity, is an evidence of mild airflow limitation. The result is suggestive of predisposition of AC users towards respiratory disorders in form of mild airflow restriction.

Creep of Ni(3)Al in the temperature regime of anomalous flow behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchic, Michael David

Much attention has been paid to understanding the dynamics of dislocation motion and substructure formation in Ni3Al in the anomalous flow regime. However, most of the experimental work that has been performed in the lowest temperatures of the anomalous flow regime has been under constant-strain-rate conditions. An alternative and perhaps more fundamental way to probe the plastic behavior of materials is a monotonic creep test, in which the stress and temperature are held constant while the time-dependent strain is measured. The aim of this study is to use constant-stress experiments to further explore the plastic flow anomaly in L12 alloys at low temperatures. Tension creep experiments have been carried out on <123> oriented single crystals of Ni75Al24Ta1 at temperatures between 293 and 473 K. We have observed primary creep leading to exhaustion at all temperatures and stresses, with creep rates declining faster than predicted by the logarithmic creep law. The total strain and creep strain have an anomalous dependence on temperature, which is consistent with the flow stress anomaly. We have also observed other unusual behavior in our creep experiments; for example, the reinitiation of plastic flow at low temperatures after a modest increment in applied stress shows a sigmoidal response, i.e., there is a significant time delay before the plastic strain rate accelerates to a maximum value. We also examined the ability to reinitiate plastic flow in samples that have been crept to exhaustion by simply lowering the test temperature. In addition, we have also performed conventional constant-displacement-rate experiments in the same temperature range. From these experiments, we have discovered that unlike most metals, Ni3Al displays a negative dependence of the work hardening rate (WHR) with increasing strain rate. For tests at intermediate temperatures (373 and 423 K), the WHRs of crystals tested at moderately high strain rates (10-2 s-1) are half the WHRs of crystals tested at conventional strain rates (10 -5 s-1), and this anomalous dependence has also been shown to be reversible with changes in strain rate. The implications of all results are discussed in light of our efforts to model plastic deformation in these alloys.

Potential climate change impacts on a tropical estuary: Hilo Bay, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolf, J.; LaPinta, J.; Marusek, J.; Pascoe, K.; Pugh, A.

2016-02-01

Hilo Bay is a tropical estuarine ecosystem on the northeast (windward) coast of Hawai`i Island that is potentially vulnerable to climate change effects mediated through elevated water temperatures and/or changing rainfall patterns that impact river and groundwater fluxes. Here, we document trends in water temperature, river flow and phytoplankton dynamics in Hilo Bay. Hilo Bay is fed by two major rivers, Wailuku and Honoli`i, both of which have shown long term declines in output over their 85 and 38 year monitoring periods (USGS), respectively. Time series of groundwater inputs to Hilo Bay do not exist, but the average estimated rate rivals that of average river inputs. Daily average Hilo Bay water temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.35 degrees C per year (p < 0.001) since measurement by the Hilo Bay water quality buoy began in 2010, with the warmest temperatures on record recorded Sept 2015. Salinity did not show a trend over this same time period. Phytoplankton showed a pronounced seasonal cycle in Hilo Bay with a long term average of 3.7 mg m-3 and dominance by diatoms that exploit the co-availability of silica and nitrate in this environment. On shorter time scales of days to < 1 week, flood events dramatically reduce Hilo Bay salinity, temperature and phytoplankton biomass. Coincidental atmospheric warming, SST warming in the adjacent North Pacific ocean, and declining river flows will likely work together to result in elevated SST in Hilo Bay if observed trends continue. The El Nino event that started this year is expected to exacerbate this warming through reduce river flow and warmer regional SST.

Analysis of urban-rural population dynamics for China.

PubMed

Shen, J

1991-12-01

The population dynamics of China are presented in a multiregional demographic model using regional estimates or mortality and migration based on the 1% population sample survey in 1987. An open ended population account is generated for period cohort a, gender g of region i (urban) and j (rural) using population, birth, death, and migration. Demographic rates and equations for flows of nonsurviving migrants of period cohort a of gender g are estimated using the forward demographic rate definition. Out-migration rates for period cohort a of gender g are defined by migration flow divided by the initial population. The death rate for period cohort A1 and A are estimated using a single region method. Death and migration rates are simultaneously estimated with an iterative procedure. The population accounts estimates and demographic rates are provided for the period ending 1986-87 for male births, males in period cohorts 10 and 20, female births, and females in period cohorts 10 and 20. The urban and rural population projection model is based on the population accounts concept and assumes fixed rates of mortality, migration, and normal fertility for the base year 1987. The results of this projection are a population of 1090 million that will grow to 1304 million in 2000, 1720 million in 2050, and 1791 million in 2087. Urban population will expand from 44.2% in 1988 to 46.6% in 2000, and 54.7% in 2087. The labor population of males 18-65 years and females 18-60 years will increase from 58.8% in 1988 to 59.7% in 2000 and decline to 58.4% by 2087. The old age population of males 65 years and females 60 years will increase from 6.5% in 1988 to 7.9% in 2000, and 16.3% in 2087. The mean age increased from 28.3 years in 1988 to 37 in 2087. Urban population may be underprojected; migration problems are recognized. Fertility also is likely to decline. An alternative projection (B) is given to account for the U-shape distribution and urban fertility of 1.8 in 2000, increasing to and stabilizing at 2.2 in 2020, such that population estimates for 2000 are 1291 and 1524 for 2087 with a peak in 2048 of 1573. A faster fertility decline is also used to generate projection C. The author's projections A, B, and C, which are based on more recent data and a more realistic model, are than the "objective projection" and than the "warning projection" generated by China's Population Census Office based on 1982 census data.

Hydrological conditions and evaluation of sustainable groundwater use in the Sierra Vista Subwatershed, Upper San Pedro Basin, southeastern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gungle, Bruce; Callegary, James B.; Paretti, Nicholas V.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Eastoe, Christopher J.; Turner, Dale S.; Dickinson, Jesse; Levick, Lainie R.; Sugg, Zachary P.

2016-08-18

Looking at the subwatershed as a whole, base flow was in decline along the entire river reach, but determination of the specific cause of the decline was beyond the scope of this report. Conditions in the area from the municipal pumping center of Sierra Vista and Fort Huachuca northeast to the river (from about the Charleston to Tombstone gaging stations) were more commonly in decline than in regions further south. Both long-term indicators, such as regional aquifer groundwater levels and horizontal gradients, and the isotope analysis indicated that groundwater discharge to the river and thus base flow may continue to decline in that area. South of Charleston, indicators were more mixed. Some indicators in the Hereford reach suggest groundwater discharge to the San Pedro River may be increasing there, whereas some indicators in the Palominas reach suggest groundwater discharge to the river there may be declining.

Effects of ozone and other pollutants on the pulmonary function of adult hikers.

PubMed Central

Korrick, S A; Neas, L M; Dockery, D W; Gold, D R; Allen, G A; Hill, L B; Kimball, K D; Rosner, B A; Speizer, F E

1998-01-01

This study evaluated the acute effects of ambient ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and strong aerosol acidity on the pulmonary function of exercising adults. During the summers of 1991 and 1992, volunteers (18-64 years of age) were solicited from hikers on Mt. Washington, New Hampshire. Volunteer nonsmokers with complete covariates (n = 530) had pulmonary function measured before and after their hikes. We calculated each hiker's posthike percentage change in forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), the ratio of these two (FEV1/FVC), forced expiratory flow between 25 and 75% of FVC(FEF25-75%), and peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR). Average O3 exposures ranged from 21 to 74 ppb. After adjustment for age,sex, smoking status (former versus never), history of asthma or wheeze, hours hiked, ambient temperature, and other covariates, there was a 2.6% decline in FEV1 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.4-4.7; p = 0.02] and a 2.2% decline in FVC (CI, 0.8-3.5; p =0.003) for each 50 ppb increment in mean O3. There were consistent associations of decrements in both FVC (0.4% decline; CI,0.2-0.6, p = 0.001) and PEFR (0.8% decline; CI, 0.01-1.6; p = 0.05) with PM2.5 and of decrements in PEFR (0.4% decline; CI, 0.1-0.7; p = 0.02) with strong aerosol acidity across the interquartile range of these exposures. Hikers with asthma or a history of wheeze (n = 40) had fourfold greater responsiveness to ozone than others. With prolonged outdoor exercise, low-level exposures to O3, PM2.5, and strong aerosol acidity were associated with significant effects on pulmonary function among adults. Hikers with a history of asthma or wheeze had significantly greater air pollution-related changes in pulmonary function. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 PMID:9435151

Longevity of acid discharges from underground mines located above the regional water table.

PubMed

Demchak, J; Skousen, J; McDonald, L M

2004-01-01

The duration of acid mine drainage flowing out of underground mines is important in the design of watershed restoration and abandoned mine land reclamation projects. Past studies have reported that acid water flows from underground mines for hundreds of years with little change, while others state that poor drainage quality may last only 20 to 40 years. More than 150 above-drainage (those not flooded after abandonment) underground mine discharges from Pittsburgh and Upper Freeport coal seams were located and sampled during 1968 in northern West Virginia, and we revisited 44 of those sites in 1999-2000 and measured water flow, pH, acidity, Fe, sulfate, and conductivity. We found no significant difference in flows between 1968 and 1999-2000. Therefore, we felt the water quality data could be compared and the data represented real changes in pollutant concentrations. There were significant water quality differences between year and coal seam, but no effect of disturbance. While pH was not significantly improved, average total acidity declined 79% between 1968 and 1999-2000 in Pittsburgh mines (from 66.8 to 14 mmol H+ L(-1)) and 56% in Upper Freeport mines (from 23.8 to 10.4 mmol H+ L(-1)). Iron decreased an average of about 80% across all sites (from an average of 400 to 72 mg L(-1)), while sulfate decreased between 50 and 75%. Pittsburgh seam discharge water was much worse in 1968 than Upper Freeport seam water. Twenty of our 44 sites had water quality information in 1980, which served as a midpoint to assess the slope of the decline in acidity and metal concentrations. Five of 20 sites (25%) showed an apparent exponential rate of decline in acidity and iron, while 10 of 20 sites (50%) showed a more linear decline. Drainage from five Upper Freeport sites increased in acidity and iron. While it is clear that surface mines and below-drainage underground mines improve in discharge quality relatively rapidly (20-40 years), above-drainage underground mines are not as easily predicted. In total, the drainage from 34 out of 44 (77%) above-drainage underground mines showed significant improvement in acidity over time, some exponentially and some linearly. Ten discharges showed no improvement and three of these got much worse.

Global Change Drought in the Southwest: New Management Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, B. H.; Overpeck, J. T.

2015-12-01

Long held worries about future runoff declines in the Colorado River under climate change are proving to be more than just theory. Fifteen years into this century flows of the Colorado are already declining due mostly to unprecedented temperatures, and as warming proceeds, declines in river flow will grow larger. Temperature-driven droughts, some lasting decades and much more severe than the current 15-year drought, will also become more commonplace if climate change continues unabated. Current projections of future water availability almost universally understate the risk of large Colorado flow reductions under business-as-usual warming. Betting on highly uncertain projections of increased precipitation to overcome even part of the flow reductions due to virtually certain warming is a poor risk management strategy. Many of the existing water policy arrangements in the Colorado River Basin will fail in the 21st century unless innovative new solutions are developed under leadership from the federal government and its basin state partners.

The effects of site factors on the rate of hemlock decline: a case study in New Jersey

Treesearch

Denise Royle; Richard Lathrop

2000-01-01

The rate of decline of hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) trees infested with hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) appears to be highly variable and site dependent. Rates of hemlock forest decline have not been quantified at the landscape scale and reasons for observed variations in the rate of decline remain unknown. Others have...

Hepatic sinusoid is not well-stirred: estimation of the degree of axial mixing by analysis of lobular concentration gradients formed during uptake of thyroxine by the perfused rat liver

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weisiger, R.A.; Mendel, C.M.; Cavalieri, R.R.

1986-03-01

Two general models have been proposed for predicting the effects of metabolism, protein binding, and plasma flow on the removal of drugs by the liver. These models differ in the degree of plasma mixing assumed to exist within each hepatic sinusoid. The venous equilibrium model treats the sinusoid as a single well-stirred compartment, whereas the sinusoidal model effectively breaks up the sinusoid into a large number of sequentially perfused compartments which do not exchange their contents except through plasma flow. As a consequence, the sinusoidal model, but not the venous equilibrium model, predicts that the concentration of highly extracted drugsmore » will decline as the plasma flows through the hepatic lobule. To determine which of these alternative models best describes the hepatic uptake process, we looked for evidence that concentration gradients are formed during the uptake of (/sup 125/I)thyroxine by the perfused rat liver. Autoradiography of tissue slices after perfusion of the portal vein at physiologic flow rates with protein-free buffer containing (/sup 125/I)thyroxine demonstrated a rapid exponential fall in grain density with distance from the portal venule, declining by half for each 8% of the mean length of the sinusoid. Reversing the direction of perfusate flow reversed the direction of the autoradiographic gradients, indicating that they primarily reflect differences in the concentration of thyroxine within the hepatic sinusoids rather than differences in the uptake capacity of portal and central hepatocytes. Analysis of the data using models in which each sinusoid was represented by different numbers of sequentially perfused compartments (1-20) indicated that at least eight compartments were necessary to account for the magnitude of the gradients seen.« less

Primary weathering rates, water transit times and concentration-discharge relations: A theoretical analysis for the critical zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ameli, Ali; Erlandsson, Martin; Beven, Keith; Creed, Irena; McDonnell, Jeffrey; Bishop, Kevin

2017-04-01

The permeability architecture of the critical zone exerts a major influence on the hydrogeochemistry of the critical zone. Water flowpath dynamics drive the spatio-temporal pattern of geochemical evolution and resulting streamflow concentration-discharge (C-Q) relation, but these flowpaths are complex and difficult to map quantitatively. Here, we couple a new integrated flow and particle tracking transport model with a general reversible Transition-State-Theory style dissolution rate-law to explore theoretically how C-Q relations and concentration in the critical zone respond to decline in saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) with soil depth. We do this for a range of flow rates and mineral reaction kinetics. Our results show that for minerals with a high ratio of equilibrium concentration to intrinsic weathering rate, vertical heterogeneity in Ks enhances the gradient of weathering-derived solute concentration in the critical zone and strengthens the inverse stream C-Q relation. As the ratio of equilibrium concentration to intrinsic weathering rate decreases, the spatial distribution of concentration in the critical zone becomes more uniform for a wide range of flow rates, and stream C-Q relation approaches chemostatic behaviour, regardless of the degree of vertical heterogeneity in Ks. These findings suggest that the transport-controlled mechanisms in the hillslope can lead to chemostatic C-Q relations in the stream while the hillslope surface reaction-controlled mechanisms are associated with an inverse stream C-Q relation. In addition, as the ratio of equilibrium concentration to intrinsic weathering rate decreases, the concentration in the critical zone and stream become less dependent on groundwater age (or transit time)

Observations on preferential flow and horizontal transport of nitrogen fertilizer in the unsaturated zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilkison, D.H.; Blevins, D.W.

1999-01-01

A study site underlain by a claypan soil was instrumented to examine the transport of fertilizer nitrogen (N) under corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation. The study was designed to examine N transport within the unsaturated zone and in interflow (the saturated flow of water on top of the claypan). A 15N- labeled fertilizer (labeled N), bromide (Br), and chloride (Cl) were used as field tracers. Rapid or prolonged infiltration events allowed water and dissolved solutes to perch on the claypan for brief periods. However, a well- developed network of preferential flow paths quickly diverted water and solutes through the claypan and into the underlying glacial till aquifer. Excess fertilizer N in the unsaturated zone supplied a continuous, but declining input of N to ground water for a period of 15 mo after a single fertilizer application. Calculated solute velocities through the claypan matrix (6.4 x 10-6 cm s-1) were similar to horizontal transport rates along the claypan (3.5 to 7.3 x 10-6 cm s-1) but much slower than infiltration rates determined for preferential flow paths (1.67 x 10-3 cm s-1). These flow paths accounted for 35% of the transport. A seasonally variable, dual mode of transport (matrix and preferential flow) prevented the claypan from being an effective barrier to vertical transport. Simulations of selected field observations, conducted using the variably saturated two- dimensional flow and transport model, VS2DT, confirmed the presence of a dual flow regime in the claypan.

Disk irradiation and light curves of x ray novae

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, S.-W.; Wheeler, J. C.; Mineshige, S.

1994-01-01

We study the disk instability and the effect of irradiation on outbursts in the black hole X-ray nova system. In both the optical and soft X-rays, the light curves of several X-ray novae, A0620-00, GH 2000+25, Nova Muscae 1991 (GS 1124-68), and GRO J0422+32, show a main peak, a phase of exponential decline, a secondary maximum or reflare, and a final bump in the late decay followed by a rapid decline. Basic disk thermal limit cycle instabilities can account for the rapid rise and overall decline, but not the reflare and final bump. The rise time of the reflare, about 10 days, is too short to represent a viscous time, so this event is unlikely to be due to increased mass flow from the companion star. We explore the possibility that irradiation by X-rays produced in the inner disk can produce these secondary effects by enhancing the mass flow rate within the disk. Two plausible mechanisms of irradiation of the disk are considered: direct irradiation from the inner hot disk and reflected radiation from a corona or other structure above the disk. Both of these processes will be time dependent in the context of the disk instability model and result in more complex time-dependent behavior of the disk structure. We test both disk instability and mass transfer burst models for the secondary flares in the presence of irradiation.

Data network, collection, and analysis in the Diamond Valley flow system, central Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knochenmus, Lari A.; Berger, David L.; Moreo, Michael T.; Smith, J. LaRue

2011-01-01

Future groundwater development and its effect on future municipal, irrigation, and alternative energy uses in the Diamond Valley flow system are of concern for officials in Eureka County, Nevada. To provide a better understanding of the groundwater resources, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Eureka County, commenced a multi-phase study of the Diamond Valley flow system in 2005. Groundwater development primarily in southern Diamond Valley has resulted in water-level declines since the 1960s ranging from less than 5 to 100 feet. Groundwater resources in the Diamond Valley flow system outside of southern Diamond Valley have been relatively undeveloped. Data collected during phase 2 of the study (2006-09) included micrometeorological data at 4 evapotranspiration stations, 3 located in natural vegetation and 1 located in an agricultural field; groundwater levels in 95 wells; water-quality constituents in aquifers and springs at 21 locations; lithologic information from 7 recently drilled wells; and geophysical logs from 3 well sites. This report describes what was accomplished during phase 2 of the study, provides the data collected, and presents the approaches to strengthen relations between evapotranspiration rates measured at micrometeorological stations and spatially distributed groundwater discharge. This report also presents the approach to improve delineation of areas of groundwater discharge and describes the current methodology used to improve the accuracy of spatially distributed groundwater discharge rates in the Diamond Valley flow system.

Chemical reaction for Carreau-Yasuda nanofluid flow past a nonlinear stretching sheet considering Joule heating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Mair; Shahid, Amna; Malik, M. Y.; Salahuddin, T.

2018-03-01

Current analysis has been made to scrutinize the consequences of chemical response against magneto-hydrodynamic Carreau-Yasuda nanofluid flow induced by a non-linear stretching surface considering zero normal flux, slip and convective boundary conditions. Joule heating effect is also considered. Appropriate similarity approach is used to convert leading system of PDE's for Carreau-Yasuda nanofluid into nonlinear ODE's. Well known mathematical scheme namely shooting method is utilized to solve the system numerically. Physical parameters, namely Weissenberg number We , thermal slip parameter δ , thermophoresis number NT, non-linear stretching parameter n, magnetic field parameter M, velocity slip parameter k , Lewis number Le, Brownian motion parameter NB, Prandtl number Pr, Eckert number Ec and chemical reaction parameter γ upon temperature, velocity and concentration profiles are visualized through graphs and tables. Numerical influence of mass and heat transfer rates and friction factor are also represented in tabular as well as graphical form respectively. Skin friction coefficient reduces when Weissenberg number We is incremented. Rate of heat transfer enhances for large values of Brownian motion constraint NB. By increasing Lewis quantity Le rate of mass transfer declines.

No Evidence of Metabolic Depression in Western Alaskan Juvenile Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus)

PubMed Central

Hoopes, Lisa A.; Rea, Lorrie D.; Christ, Aaron; Worthy, Graham A. J.

2014-01-01

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) populations have undergone precipitous declines through their western Alaskan range over the last four decades with the leading hypothesis to explain this decline centering around changing prey quality, quantity, or availability for this species (i.e., nutritional stress hypothesis). Under chronic conditions of reduced food intake sea lions would conserve energy by limiting energy expenditures through lowering of metabolic rate known as metabolic depression. To examine the potential for nutritional stress, resting metabolic rate (RMR) and body composition were measured in free-ranging juvenile Steller sea lions (N = 91) at three distinct geographical locations (Southeast Alaska, Prince William Sound, Central Aleutian Islands) using open-flow respirometry and deuterium isotope dilution, respectively. Average sea lion RMR ranged from 6.7 to 36.2 MJ d−1 and was influenced by body mass, total body lipid, and to a lesser extent, ambient air temperature and age. Sea lion pups captured in the Aleutian Islands (region of decline) had significantly greater body mass and total body lipid stores when compared to pups from Prince William Sound (region of decline) and Southeast Alaska (stable region). Along with evidence of robust body condition in Aleutian Island pups, no definitive differences were detected in RMR between sea lions sampled between eastern and western populations that could not be accounted for by higher percent total body lipid content, suggesting that that at the time of this study, Steller sea lions were not experiencing metabolic depression in the locations studied. PMID:24416394

Cerebral small vessel disease: Capillary pathways to stroke and cognitive decline

PubMed Central

Engedal, Thorbjørn S; Moreton, Fiona; Hansen, Mikkel B; Wardlaw, Joanna M; Dalkara, Turgay; Markus, Hugh S; Muir, Keith W

2015-01-01

Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) gives rise to one in five strokes worldwide and constitutes a major source of cognitive decline in the elderly. SVD is known to occur in relation to hypertension, diabetes, smoking, radiation therapy and in a range of inherited and genetic disorders, autoimmune disorders, connective tissue disorders, and infections. Until recently, changes in capillary patency and blood viscosity have received little attention in the aetiopathogenesis of SVD and the high risk of subsequent stroke and cognitive decline. Capillary flow patterns were, however, recently shown to limit the extraction efficacy of oxygen in tissue and capillary dysfunction therefore proposed as a source of stroke-like symptoms and neurodegeneration, even in the absence of physical flow-limiting vascular pathology. In this review, we examine whether capillary flow disturbances may be a shared feature of conditions that represent risk factors for SVD. We then discuss aspects of capillary dysfunction that could be prevented or alleviated and therefore might be of general benefit to patients at risk of SVD, stroke or cognitive decline. PMID:26661176

Canopy Defoliation has More Impact on Carbohydrate Availability than on Hydraulic Function in Declining Scots Pine Populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poyatos, R.; Aguadé, D.; Gómez, M.; Mencuccini, M.; Martínez-Vilalta, J.

2013-12-01

Drought-induced defoliation has recently been associated with depletion of carbohydrate reserves and increased mortality risk in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) at its dry limit. Are defoliated pines hydraulically impaired compared to non-defoliated pines? Moreover, how do defoliated pines cope with potentially lethal droughts, as compared to non-defoliated pines in the same population? In order to address these questions, we measured the seasonal dynamics of sap flow and needle water potentials (2010-2012), hydraulic function and non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) (2012) in healthy and defoliated pines in the Prades mountains (NE Spain). The summer drought was mild in 2010, intense in 2012 and extremely long in 2011. Defoliated Scots pines showed higher sap flow per unit leaf area during spring, but they were more sensitive to summer drought (Figure 1). This pattern was associated with a steeper decline in soil-to-leaf hydraulic conductance, which could not be explained by differences in branch vulnerability to embolism across defoliation classes. Accordingly, the native loss of xylem conductivity in branches, measured in 2012, remained similar across defoliation classes and reached >65% at the peak of the drought. However, a steeper vulnerability curve was observed for root xylem of defoliated pines. Xylem diameter variations (2011-2012) will be used to further investigate possible differences in the aboveground/belowground partitioning of hydraulic resistance across defoliation classes. NSC levels varied across tree organs (leaves>branches>roots>trunk) and strongly declined with drought. Defoliated pines displayed reduced NSC levels throughout the study period, despite enhanced water transport capacity and increased gas exchange rates during spring. Overall, the defoliated vs. healthy status seems to be more associated to differences in carbohydrate storage and dynamics than to hydraulic differences per se. However, starch conversion to soluble sugars during drought also suggests that NSC may be actively involved in the maintenance of xylem and phloem transport. These results highlight the close connection between carbon and water relations in declining Scots pines. Seasonal course (2010-2012) of VPD (upper panel), soil moisture (mid panel) and sap flow per unit leaf area of defoliated and non defoliated Scots pines (lower panel).

Arc dynamics of a pulsed DC nitrogen rotating gliding arc discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Fengsen; Zhang, Hao; Li, Xiaodong; Wu, Angjian; Yan, Jianhua; Ni, Mingjiang; Tu, Xin

2018-03-01

In this study, a novel pulsed direct current (DC) rotating gliding arc (RGA) plasma reactor co-driven by an external magnetic field and a tangential gas flow has been developed. The dynamic characteristics of the rotating gliding arc have been investigated by means of numerical simulation and experiment. The simulation results show that a highly turbulent vortex flow can be generated at the bottom of the RGA reactor to accelerate the arc rotation after arc ignition, whereas the magnitude of gas velocity declined significantly along the axial direction of the RGA reactor. The calculated arc rotation frequency (14.4 Hz) is reasonably close to the experimental result (18.5 Hz) at a gas flow rate of 10 l min-1. In the presence of an external magnet, the arc rotation frequency is around five times higher than that of the RGA reactor without using a magnet, which suggests that the external magnetic field plays a dominant role in the maintenance of the arc rotation in the upper zone of the RGA reactor. In addition, when the magnet is placed outside the reactor reversely to form a reverse external magnetic field, the arc can be stabilized at a fixed position in the inner wall of the outer electrode at a critical gas flow rate of 16 l min-1.

Analysis of ground-water flow in the Catahoula aquifer system in the vicinity of Laurel and Hattiesburg, Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, K.J.; Barber, N.L.

1995-01-01

The upper, middle, and lower Catahoula aquifers in the vicinity of the cites of Laurel and Hattiesburg in southern Mississippi are made up of irregular, discontinuous sand zones in the Catahoula Formation of Miocene age. In places thee three aquifers may be hydraulically well connected, and are referred to as the Catahoula aquifer system. Withdrawal from the Catahoula aquifers increased from 28 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) to 41 Mgal/d during 1970 to 1985, and decreased to 38 Mgal/d during 1990. Most withdrawal in the Laurel area is from the lower and middle Catahoula, and most withdrawal in the Hattiesburg area is from the middle and upper Catahoula aquifers. In the Laurel area, water levels in selected wells in the lower Catahoula aquifer declined at rates ranging from about 1 to 3.6 feet/ year until the late 1980's in response to the increase in pumping. A three-dimensional model was developed to represent ground-water flow in the Catahoula aquifers. Simulated water levels in the lower Catahoula aquifer, the layer most affected by pumping, were lowered from predevelopment levels as much as 130 feet in the Laurel area and 100 feet in the Hattiesburg area, according to the model analysis of 1992 conditions. Three scenarios of increased pumpage, for the period 1992-2020, were simulated. Under the low-growth scenario, water- level declines would be 20 feet or less below 1992 water levels in the middle and upper Catahoula aquifer in the Hattiesburg area, and about 60 feet in the lower Catahoula aquifer in the Laurel area. Under the moderate-growth scenario, water-level declines would be 40 feet or less below 1992 water levels in the middle Catahoula aquifer in the Hattiesburg area. Water-level declines would be about 110 feet in the lower Catahoula aquifer in the Laurel area, and water levels would approach the top of the aquifer. Under the high-growth scenario, water-level declines would be 40 feet or less in the upper Catahoula aquifer and about 80 feet in the middle Catahoula, with the largest declines occurring in the Hattiesburg area. Water levels would decline about 130 feet and would be drawn down below the top of the lower Catahoula aquifer in the Laurel area under the high-growth scenario.

[Difference of water relationships of poplar trees in Zhangbei County, Hebei, China based on stable isotope and thermal dissipation method].

PubMed

Miao, Bo; Meng, Ping; Zhang, Jin Song; He, Fang Jie; Sun, Shou Jia

2017-07-18

The water sources and transpiration of poplar trees in Zhangbei County were measured using stable hydrogen isotope and thermal dissipation method. The differences in water relationships between dieback and non-dieback poplar trees were analyzed. The results showed that the dieback trees mainly used shallow water from 0-30 cm soil layer during growing season while the non-dieback trees mainly used water from 30-80 cm soil layer. There was a significant difference in water source between them. The non-dieback trees used more water from middle and deep soil layers than that of the dieback trees during the dry season. The percentage of poplar trees using water from 0-30 cm soil layer increased in wet season, and the increase of dieback trees was higher than that of non-dieback trees. The contributions of water from 30-180 cm soil layer of dieback and non-dieback trees both decreased in wet season. The sap flow rate of non-dieback trees was higher than that of dieback trees. There was a similar variation tend of sap flow rate between dieback and non-dieback trees in different weather conditions, but the start time of sap flow of non-dieback trees was earlier than that of dieback trees. Correlation analysis showed that the sap flow rate of either dieback or non-dieback poplar trees strongly related to soil temperature, wind speed, photosynthetically active radiation, relative humidity and air temperature. The sap flow rate of die-back poplar trees strongly negatively related to soil temperature and relative humidity, and strongly positively related to the other factors. The sap flow rate of non-dieback poplar trees only strongly negatively related to relative humidity but positively related to the other factors. The results revealed transpiration of both poplar trees was easily affected by environmental factors. The water consumption of dieback trees was less than non-dieback trees because the cumulative sap flow amount of dieback trees was lower. Reduced transpiration of dieback trees couldn't help to prevent poplar forest declining due to shallow water source.

Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, W. R.; Hashim, M.

2015-03-01

The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

Accelerating rates of cognitive decline and imaging markers associated with β-amyloid pathology.

PubMed

Insel, Philip S; Mattsson, Niklas; Mackin, R Scott; Schöll, Michael; Nosheny, Rachel L; Tosun, Duygu; Donohue, Michael C; Aisen, Paul S; Jagust, William J; Weiner, Michael W

2016-05-17

To estimate points along the spectrum of β-amyloid pathology at which rates of change of several measures of neuronal injury and cognitive decline begin to accelerate. In 460 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), we estimated the points at which rates of florbetapir PET, fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET, MRI, and cognitive and functional decline begin to accelerate with respect to baseline CSF Aβ42. Points of initial acceleration in rates of decline were estimated using mixed-effects regression. Rates of neuronal injury and cognitive and even functional decline accelerate substantially before the conventional threshold for amyloid positivity, with rates of florbetapir PET and FDG PET accelerating early. Temporal lobe atrophy rates also accelerate prior to the threshold, but not before the acceleration of cognitive and functional decline. A considerable proportion of patients with MCI would not meet inclusion criteria for a trial using the current threshold for amyloid positivity, even though on average, they are experiencing cognitive/functional decline associated with prethreshold levels of CSF Aβ42. Future trials in early Alzheimer disease might consider revising the criteria regarding β-amyloid thresholds to include the range of amyloid associated with the first signs of accelerating rates of decline. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Accelerating rates of cognitive decline and imaging markers associated with β-amyloid pathology

PubMed Central

Mattsson, Niklas; Mackin, R. Scott; Schöll, Michael; Nosheny, Rachel L.; Tosun, Duygu; Donohue, Michael C.; Aisen, Paul S.; Jagust, William J.; Weiner, Michael W.

2016-01-01

Objective: To estimate points along the spectrum of β-amyloid pathology at which rates of change of several measures of neuronal injury and cognitive decline begin to accelerate. Methods: In 460 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), we estimated the points at which rates of florbetapir PET, fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET, MRI, and cognitive and functional decline begin to accelerate with respect to baseline CSF Aβ42. Points of initial acceleration in rates of decline were estimated using mixed-effects regression. Results: Rates of neuronal injury and cognitive and even functional decline accelerate substantially before the conventional threshold for amyloid positivity, with rates of florbetapir PET and FDG PET accelerating early. Temporal lobe atrophy rates also accelerate prior to the threshold, but not before the acceleration of cognitive and functional decline. Conclusions: A considerable proportion of patients with MCI would not meet inclusion criteria for a trial using the current threshold for amyloid positivity, even though on average, they are experiencing cognitive/functional decline associated with prethreshold levels of CSF Aβ42. Future trials in early Alzheimer disease might consider revising the criteria regarding β-amyloid thresholds to include the range of amyloid associated with the first signs of accelerating rates of decline. PMID:27164667

Accelerating rates of cognitive decline and imaging markers associated with β-amyloid pathology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Insel, Philip S.; Mattsson, Niklas; Mackin, R. Scott

Objective: Our objective is to estimate points along the spectrum of β-amyloid pathology at which rates of change of several measures of neuronal injury and cognitive decline begin to accelerate. Methods: In 460 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), we estimated the points at which rates of florbetapir PET, fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET, MRI, and cognitive and functional decline begin to accelerate with respect to baseline CSF Aβ 42. Points of initial acceleration in rates of decline were estimated using mixed-effects regression. Results: Rates of neuronal injury and cognitive and even functional decline accelerate substantially before the conventional threshold for amyloidmore » positivity, with rates of florbetapir PET and FDG PET accelerating early. Temporal lobe atrophy rates also accelerate prior to the threshold, but not before the acceleration of cognitive and functional decline. Conclusions: A considerable proportion of patients with MCI would not meet inclusion criteria for a trial using the current threshold for amyloid positivity, even though on average, they are experiencing cognitive/functional decline associated with prethreshold levels of CSF Aβ 42. Lastly, future trials in early Alzheimer disease might consider revising the criteria regarding β-amyloid thresholds to include the range of amyloid associated with the first signs of accelerating rates of decline.« less

Accelerating rates of cognitive decline and imaging markers associated with β-amyloid pathology

DOE PAGES

Insel, Philip S.; Mattsson, Niklas; Mackin, R. Scott; ...

2016-04-15

Objective: Our objective is to estimate points along the spectrum of β-amyloid pathology at which rates of change of several measures of neuronal injury and cognitive decline begin to accelerate. Methods: In 460 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), we estimated the points at which rates of florbetapir PET, fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET, MRI, and cognitive and functional decline begin to accelerate with respect to baseline CSF Aβ 42. Points of initial acceleration in rates of decline were estimated using mixed-effects regression. Results: Rates of neuronal injury and cognitive and even functional decline accelerate substantially before the conventional threshold for amyloidmore » positivity, with rates of florbetapir PET and FDG PET accelerating early. Temporal lobe atrophy rates also accelerate prior to the threshold, but not before the acceleration of cognitive and functional decline. Conclusions: A considerable proportion of patients with MCI would not meet inclusion criteria for a trial using the current threshold for amyloid positivity, even though on average, they are experiencing cognitive/functional decline associated with prethreshold levels of CSF Aβ 42. Lastly, future trials in early Alzheimer disease might consider revising the criteria regarding β-amyloid thresholds to include the range of amyloid associated with the first signs of accelerating rates of decline.« less

The origin and evolution of safe-yield policies in the Kansas groundwater management districts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sophocleous, M.

2000-01-01

The management of groundwater resources in Kansas continues to evolve. Declines in the High Plains aquifer led to the establishment of groundwater management districts in the mid-1970s and reduced streamflows prompted the enactment of minimum desirable streamflow standards in the mid-1980s. Nonetheless, groundwater levels and streamflows continued to decline, although at reduced rates compared to premid-1980s rates. As a result, "safe-yield" policies were revised to take into account natural groundwater discharge in the form of stream baseflow. These policies, although a step in the right direction, are deficient in several ways. In addition to the need for more accurate recharge data, pumping-induced streamflow depletion, natural stream losses, and groundwater evapotranspiration need to be accounted for in the revised safe-yield policies. Furthermore, the choice of the 90% flow-duration statistic as a measure of baseflow needs to be reevaluated, as it significantly underestimates mean baseflow estimated from baseflow separation computer programs; moreover, baseflow estimation needs to be refined and validated. ?? 2000 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Martian channels and valleys - Their characteristics, distribution, and age

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, M. H.; Clow, G. D.

1981-01-01

The distribution and ages of Martian channels and valleys, which are generally believed to have been cut by running water, are examined with particular emphasis on the small branching networks referred to as runoff channels or valley networks. Valleys at latitudes from 65 deg S to 65 deg N were surveyed on Viking images at resolutions between 125 and 300 m. Almost all of the valleys are found in the old cratered terrain, in areas characterized by high elevations, low albedos and low violet/red ratios. The networks are deduced to have formed early in the history of the planet, with a formation rate declining rapidly shortly after the decline of the cratering rate 3.9 billion years ago. Two types of outflow channels are distinguished: unconfined, in which broad swaths of terrain are scoured, and confined, in which flow is restricted to discrete channels. Both types start at local sources, and have formed episodically throughout Martian history. Fretted channels, found mainly in two latitude belts characterized by relatively rapid erosion along escarpments, are explained by the lateral enlargement of other channels by mass wasting.

Effect of impact stress on microbial recovery on an agar surface.

PubMed Central

Stewart, S L; Grinshpun, S A; Willeke, K; Terzieva, S; Ulevicius, V; Donnelly, J

1995-01-01

Microbial stress due to the impaction of microorganisms onto an agar collection surface was studied experimentally. The relative recovery rates of aerosolized Pseudomonas fluorescens and Micrococcus luteus were determined as a function of the impaction velocity by using a moving agar slide impactor operating over a flow rate range from 3.8 to 40 liters/min yielding impaction velocities from 24 to 250 m/s. As a reference, the sixth stage of the Andersen Six-Stage Viable Particle Sizing Sampler was used at its operating flow rate of 28.3 liters/min (24 m/s). At a collection efficiency of close to 100% for the agar slide impactor, an increase in sampling flow rate and, therefore, in impaction velocity produced a significant decline in the percentage of microorganisms recovered. Conversely, when the collection efficiency was less than 100%, greater recovery and lower injury rates occurred. The highest relative rate of recovery (approximately 51% for P. fluorescens and approximately 62% for M. luteus) was obtained on the complete (Trypticase soy agar) medium at 40 and 24 m/s (6.4 and 3.8 liters/min), respectively. M. luteus demonstrated less damage than P. fluorescens, suggesting the hardy nature of the gram-positive strain versus that of the gram-negative microorganism. Comparison of results from the agar slide and Andersen impactors at the same sampling velocity showed that recovery and injury due to collection depends not only on the magnitude of the impaction velocity but also on the degree to which the microorganisms may be embedded in the collection medium.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) PMID:7747946

Demonstration optimization analyses of pumping from selected Arapahoe aquifer municipal wells in the west-central Denver Basin, Colorado, 2010–2109

USGS Publications Warehouse

Banta, Edward R.; Paschke, Suzanne S.

2012-01-01

Declining water levels caused by withdrawals of water from wells in the west-central part of the Denver Basin bedrock-aquifer system have raised concerns with respect to the ability of the aquifer system to sustain production. The Arapahoe aquifer in particular is heavily used in this area. Two optimization analyses were conducted to demonstrate approaches that could be used to evaluate possible future pumping scenarios intended to prolong the productivity of the aquifer and to delay excessive loss of saturated thickness. These analyses were designed as demonstrations only, and were not intended as a comprehensive optimization study. Optimization analyses were based on a groundwater-flow model of the Denver Basin developed as part of a recently published U.S. Geological Survey groundwater-availability study. For each analysis an optimization problem was set up to maximize total withdrawal rate, subject to withdrawal-rate and hydraulic-head constraints, for 119 selected municipal water-supply wells located in 96 model cells. The optimization analyses were based on 50- and 100-year simulations of groundwater withdrawals. The optimized total withdrawal rate for all selected wells for a 50-year simulation time was about 58.8 cubic feet per second. For an analysis in which the simulation time and head-constraint time were extended to 100 years, the optimized total withdrawal rate for all selected wells was about 53.0 cubic feet per second, demonstrating that a reduction in withdrawal rate of about 10 percent may extend the time before the hydraulic-head constraints are violated by 50 years, provided that pumping rates are optimally distributed. Analysis of simulation results showed that initially, the pumping produces water primarily by release of water from storage in the Arapahoe aquifer. However, because confining layers between the Denver and Arapahoe aquifers are thin, in less than 5 years, most of the water removed by managed-flows pumping likely would be supplied by depleting overlying hydrogeologic units, substantially increasing the rate of decline of hydraulic heads in parts of the overlying Denver aquifer.

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

PubMed Central

Wenger, Seth J.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Luce, Charles H.; Neville, Helen M.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Dunham, Jason B.; Dauwalter, Daniel C.; Young, Michael K.; Elsner, Marketa M.; Rieman, Bruce E.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Williams, Jack E.

2011-01-01

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species’ physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations. PMID:21844354

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wenger, S.J.; Isaak, D.J.; Luce, C.H.; Neville, H.M.; Fausch, K.D.; Dunham, J.B.; Dauwalter, D.C.; Young, M.K.; Elsner, M.M.; Rieman, B.E.; Hamlet, A.F.; Williams, J.E.

2011-01-01

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.

Predicting clinical decline in progressive agrammatic aphasia and apraxia of speech.

PubMed

Whitwell, Jennifer L; Weigand, Stephen D; Duffy, Joseph R; Clark, Heather M; Strand, Edythe A; Machulda, Mary M; Spychalla, Anthony J; Senjem, Matthew L; Jack, Clifford R; Josephs, Keith A

2017-11-28

To determine whether baseline clinical and MRI features predict rate of clinical decline in patients with progressive apraxia of speech (AOS). Thirty-four patients with progressive AOS, with AOS either in isolation or in the presence of agrammatic aphasia, were followed up longitudinally for up to 4 visits, with clinical testing and MRI at each visit. Linear mixed-effects regression models including all visits (n = 94) were used to assess baseline clinical and MRI variables that predict rate of worsening of aphasia, motor speech, parkinsonism, and behavior. Clinical predictors included baseline severity and AOS type. MRI predictors included baseline frontal, premotor, motor, and striatal gray matter volumes. More severe parkinsonism at baseline was associated with faster rate of decline in parkinsonism. Patients with predominant sound distortions (AOS type 1) showed faster rates of decline in aphasia and motor speech, while patients with segmented speech (AOS type 2) showed faster rates of decline in parkinsonism. On MRI, we observed trends for fastest rates of decline in aphasia in patients with relatively small left, but preserved right, Broca area and precentral cortex. Bilateral reductions in lateral premotor cortex were associated with faster rates of decline of behavior. No associations were observed between volumes and decline in motor speech or parkinsonism. Rate of decline of each of the 4 clinical features assessed was associated with different baseline clinical and regional MRI predictors. Our findings could help improve prognostic estimates for these patients. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Development of Xerostomia during Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Randall, Ken; Stevens, Jason; Yepes, Juan Fernando; Randall, Marcus E.; Kudrimoti, Mahesh; Feddock, Jonathan; Xi, Jing; Kryscio, Richard J.; Miller, Craig S.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVES Factors influencing xerostomia during intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) were assessed. METHODS A 6-week study of 32 head and neck cancer (HNC) patients was performed. Subjects completed the Xerostomia Inventory (XI) and provided stimulated saliva (SS) at baseline, week two and at end of IMRT. Influence of SS flow rate (SSFR), calcium and mucin 5b (MUC5b) concentrations and radiation dose on xerostomia was determined. RESULTS HNC subjects experienced mean SSFR decline of 36% by visit two (N=27; p=0.012) and 57% by visit three (N=20; p=0.0004), Concentrations of calcium and MUC5b increased, but not significantly during IMRT (p>0.05). Xerostomia correlated most with decreasing salivary flow rate as determined by Spearman correlations (p<0.04) and linear mixed models (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS Although IMRT is sparing to the parotid glands, it has an early effect on SSFR and the constituents in saliva in a manner that is associated with the perception of xerostomia. PMID:23523462

Turbulent Mixing in Gravity Currents with Transverse Shear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Brian; Helfrich, Karl; Scotti, Alberto

2010-11-01

A parallel flow with horizontal shear and horizontal density gradient undergoes an intensification of the shear by gravitational tilting and stretching, rapidly breaking down into turbulence. Such flows have the potential for substantial mixing in estuaries and the coastal ocean. We present high-resolution numerical results for the mixing efficiency of these flows, which can be viewed as gravity currents with transverse shear, and contrast them with the well-studied case of stably stratified, homogeneous turbulence (uniform vertical density and velocity gradients). For a sheared gravity current, the buoyancy flux, turbulent Reynolds stress, and dissipation are well out of equilibrium. The total kinetic energy first increases as potential energy is transferred to the gravity current, but rapidly decays once turbulence sets in. Despite the non-equilibrium character, mixing efficiencies are slightly higher but qualitatively similar to homogeneous stratified turbulence. Efficiency decreases in the highly energetic regime where the dissipation rate is large compared with viscosity and stratification, ɛ/(νN^2)>100, further declining as turbulence decays and kinetic energy dissipation dominates the buoyancy flux. In general, the mixing rate, parameterized by a turbulent eddy diffusivity, increases with the strength of the transverse shear.

Diffusive Imaging of Hydraulically Induced and Natural Fracture Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftekhari, B.; Marder, M. P.; Patzek, T. W.

2017-12-01

Hydraulic fracturing of tight shales continues to provide the US with a major source of energy. Efficiency of gas recovery in shales depends upon the geometry of the resulting network of fractures, the details of which are not yet fully understood. The present research explores how much of the underlying geometry can be deduced from the time dependence of the flow of gas out of the reservoir. We consider both ideal and real gas. In the case of real gas, we calculate production rate for parallel planar hydrofractures embedded in an infinite reservoir. Transport is governed by a nonlinear diffusion equation, which we solve exactly with a scaling curve. The scaling curve production rate declines initially as 1 over square root time, then as an exponential, and finally as 1 over square root of time again at late time. We show that for a given hydraulically fractured well, the onsets of transition between different decline regimes provides a direct estimate of a characteristic spacing of the underlying fracture network. We show that the scaling solution accurately fits the production history of more than 15,000 wells in the Barnett Shale. Almost all of the wells either have not yet transitioned into the late time decline or have been refractured while in exponential decline. However, there are 36 wells which show the late time transition. These allow us to calculate the characteristic spacing, which turns out to have a mode at about 10 m, a minimum at 1.6 m and a maximum at 13.3 m. We estimate that over 30 years these wells will produce on average about 45% more gas because of diffusion from the infinite external reservoir than they would if this contribution is neglected. Finally, we compute the rate at which ideal gas diffuses within an infinite region of rock into a specific absorbing fractal fracture network, which we model using geological constraints and percolation theory. Our solution employs a Brownian walk and the first passage kinetic Monte Carlo algorithm that is robust and efficient. A striking feature of this solution is the presence of a power law decline.

Effect of fishing effort on catch rate and catchability of largemouth bass in small impoundments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wegener, M. G.; Schramm, Harold; Neal, J. W.; Gerard, P.D.

2018-01-01

Largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides (Lacepède) catch rates decline with sustained fishing effort, even without harvest. It is unclear why declines in catch rate occur, and little research has been directed at how to improve catch rate. Learning has been proposed as a reason for declining catch rate, but has never been tested on largemouth bass. If catch rate declines because fish learn to avoid lures, periods of no fishing could be a management tool for increasing catch rate. In this study, six small impoundments with established fish populations were fished for two May to October fishing seasons to evaluate the effect of fishing effort on catch rate. Closed seasons were implemented to test whether a 2‐month period of no fishing improved catch rates and to determine whether conditioning from factors other than being captured reduced catch rate. Mixed‐model analysis indicated catch rate and catchability declined throughout the fishing season. Catch rate and catchability increased after a 2‐month closure but soon declined to the lowest levels of the fishing season. These changes in catch rate and catchability support the conclusion of learned angler avoidance, but sustained catchability of fish not previously caught does not support that associative or social learning affected catchability.

Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibition and the kidney

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollenberg, N. K.

1988-01-01

Angiotensin II (Ang II) induces a marked reduction in renal blood flow at doses well below those required to induce a pressor response, and as blood flow falls there is a decline in glomerular filtration rate and sodium excretion. This striking sensitivity of the renal blood supply led many workers to consider the possibility that angiotensin functions as a local renal hormone. As angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) was found in particular abundance in the lung, it seemed reasonable to suspect that most of the conversion occurred there, and that the function of Ang II would be primarily systemic, rather than intrarenal. In this review, I will explore the evidence that has accumulated on these two possibilities, since they have important implications for our current understanding of normal kidney function and derangements of kidney function in disease.

Effects of water immersion on renal hemodynamics in normal man

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Epstein, M.; Levinson, R.; Loutzenhiser, R.

1976-01-01

The present study was undertaken to delineate the effects of water immersion to the neck (NI) on renal plasma flow and glomerular filtration rate as assessed by the clearance of p-aminohippuric acid (PAH) and inulin, respectively. Nine normal male subjects were studied on two occasions, control and NI. The conditions of seated posture and time of day were identical. Immersion did not alter either clearance at a time when sodium excretion was increasing markedly. The constancy of PAH clearance during NI suggests that renal blood flow is unaltered and that the natriuresis of NI is mediated independently of alterations in overall renal perfusion. The sluggish decline of a natriuresis during recovery is consistent with the presence of a humoral factor contributing to the encountered natriuresis.

Teen Birth Rates for Urban and Rural Areas in the United States, 2007-2015.

PubMed

Hamilton, Brady E; Rossen, Lauren M; Branum, Amy M

2016-11-01

Data from the National Vital Statistics System •Birth rates for teenagers aged 15-19 declined in urban and rural counties from 2007 through 2015, with the largest declines in large urban counties and the smallest declines in rural counties. •From 2007 through 2015, the teen birth rate was lowest in large urban counties and highest in rural counties. •Declines in teen birth rates in all urban counties between 2007 and 2015 were largest in Arizona, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Minnesota, and Colorado, with 17 states experiencing a decline of 50% or more. •Declines in teen birth rates in all rural counties between 2007 and 2015 were largest (50% or more) in Colorado and Connecticut. •In 2015, teen birth rates were highest in rural counties and lowest in large urban counties for non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic females. Teen birth rates have demonstrated an unprecedented decline in the United States since 2007 (1). Declines occurred in all states and among all major racial and Hispanic-origin groups, yet disparities by both geography and demographic characteristics persist (2,3). Although teen birth rates and related declines have been described by state, patterns by urban-rural location have not yet been examined. This report describes trends in teen birth rates in urban (metropolitan) and rural (nonmetropolitan) areas in the United States overall and by state from 2007 through 2015 and by race and Hispanic origin for 2015. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Endothelium-dependent control of cerebrovascular functions through age: exercise for healthy cerebrovascular aging.

PubMed

Bolduc, Virginie; Thorin-Trescases, Nathalie; Thorin, Eric

2013-09-01

Cognitive performances are tightly associated with the maximal aerobic exercise capacity, both of which decline with age. The benefits on mental health of regular exercise, which slows the age-dependent decline in maximal aerobic exercise capacity, have been established for centuries. In addition, the maintenance of an optimal cerebrovascular endothelial function through regular exercise, part of a healthy lifestyle, emerges as one of the key and primary elements of successful brain aging. Physical exercise requires the activation of specific brain areas that trigger a local increase in cerebral blood flow to match neuronal metabolic needs. In this review, we propose three ways by which exercise could maintain the cerebrovascular endothelial function, a premise to a healthy cerebrovascular function and an optimal regulation of cerebral blood flow. First, exercise increases blood flow locally and increases shear stress temporarily, a known stimulus for endothelial cell maintenance of Akt-dependent expression of endothelial nitric oxide synthase, nitric oxide generation, and the expression of antioxidant defenses. Second, the rise in circulating catecholamines during exercise not only facilitates adequate blood and nutrient delivery by stimulating heart function and mobilizing energy supplies but also enhances endothelial repair mechanisms and angiogenesis. Third, in the long term, regular exercise sustains a low resting heart rate that reduces the mechanical stress imposed to the endothelium of cerebral arteries by the cardiac cycle. Any chronic variation from a healthy environment will perturb metabolism and thus hasten endothelial damage, favoring hypoperfusion and neuronal stress.

Sri Lanka. Spotlight.

PubMed

Hoque, M N

1985-01-01

Sri Lanka, an island country off the southeastern coast of India, populated by an estimated 16.1 million inhabitants, was one of the 1st developing countries to adopt a population policy aimed at reducing population growth and redistributing the population more equitably throughout the country. Population density is high. There are 636 persons/square mile, and 2/3 of the population lives in the southwestern and central regions of the country. Government redistribution policies seek to increase internal migration flows to the drier and less populated areas. The country's birth rate was 27 in 1982, the death rate was 6 in 1981, and the infant mortality rate was 34.4 in 1980. The rate of natural increase in 1982 was 2.1%, and the population growth rate declined from 2.5% prior to 1970 to 1.7% in 1980. The total fertility rate declined between 1963-74 from 5.0-3.4 and then increased to 3.7 in recent years. Given the age structure of the population, the population is expected to continue growing at a high rate in the coming years; however, the age at marriage is increasing and the proportion of young married women in the population is declining, and these trends will have an impact on population growth. These trends are due in part to increased educational and employment opportunities for women. The delay in marriage may also be linked to the dowry system. Given the high rate of poverty, it is difficult for parents to accummulate sufficient resources to provide dowries for their daughters. Sri lanka's economy is predominantly agricultural, with only 15% of the gross national product derived from manufacturing. Approximately 22% of thepopulation lives in urban areas. In 1981 exports totaled US$1.1 billion, and major export items were tea and rubber. In the same year, imports totaled US$1.8 billion and consisted primarily of food, petroleum, and fertilizers. The per capita gross national product was US$320 in 1982. Sri Lanka receives considerable foreign aid, and the country's family planning program receives substantial outside support.

Recent deformation rates on Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grimm, Robert E.

1994-01-01

Constraints on the recent geological evolution of Venus may be provided by quantitative estimates of the rates of the principal resurfacing processes, volcanism and tectonism. This paper focuses on the latter, using impact craters as strain indicators. The total postimpact tectonic strain lies in the range 0.5-6.5%, which defines a recent mean strain rate of 10(exp -18)-10(exp -17)/s when divided by the mean surface age. Interpretation of the cratering record as one of pure production requires a decline in resurfacing rates at about 500 Ma (catastrophic resurfacing model). If distributed tectonic resurfacing contributed strongly before that time, as suggested by the widespread occurrence of tessera as inliers, the mean global strain rate must have been at least approximately 10(exp -15)/s, which is also typical of terrestrial active margins. Numerical calculations of the response of the lithosphere to inferred mantle convective forces were performed to test the hypothesis that a decrease in surface strain rate by at least two orders of magnitude could be caused by a steady decline in heat flow over the last billion years. Parameterized convection models predict that the mean global thermal gradient decreases by only about 5 K/km over this time; even with the exponential dependence of viscosity upon temperature, the surface strain rate drops by little more than one order of magnitude. Strongly unsteady cooling and very low thermal gradients today are necessary to satisfy the catastrophic model. An alternative, uniformitarian resurfacing hypothesis holds that Venus is resurfaced in quasi-random 'patches' several hundred kilometers in size that occur in response to changing mantle convection patterns.

Effect of Temperature Reversion on Hot Ductility and Flow Stress-Strain Curves of C-Mn Continuously Cast Steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Zhihua; Li, Wei; Long, Mujun; Gui, Lintao; Chen, Dengfu; Huang, Yunwei; Vitos, Levente

2015-08-01

The influence of temperature reversion in secondary cooling and its reversion rate on hot ductility and flow stress-strain curve of C-Mn steel has been investigated. Tensile specimens were cooled at various regimes. One cooling regime involved cooling at a constant rate of 100 °C min-1 to the test temperature, while the others involved temperature reversion processes at three different reversion rates before deformation. After hot tensile test, the evolution of mechanical properties of steel was analyzed at various scales by means of microstructure observation, ab initio prediction, and thermodynamic calculation. Results indicated that the temperature reversion in secondary cooling led to hot ductility trough occurring at higher temperature with greater depth. With increasing temperature reversion rate, the low temperature end of ductility trough extended toward lower temperature, leading to wider hot ductility trough with slightly reducing depth. Microstructure examinations indicated that the intergranular fracture related to the thin film-like ferrite and (Fe,Mn)S particles did not changed with varying cooling regimes; however, the Widmanstatten ferrite surrounding austenite grains resulted from the temperature reversion process seriously deteriorated the ductility. In addition, after the temperature reversion in secondary cooling, the peak stress on the flow curve slightly declined and the peak of strain to peak stress occurred at higher temperature. With increasing temperature reversion rate, the strain to peak stress slightly increased, while the peak stress showed little variation. The evolution of plastic modulus and strain to peak stress of austenite with varying temperature was in line with the theoretical prediction on Fe.

40 CFR 73.19 - Certain units with declining SO2 rates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Certain units with declining SO2 rates... declining SO2 rates. (a) Eligibility. A unit is eligible for allowance allocations under this section if it... generator with nameplate capacity equal to or greater than 75 MWe; (3) Its 1985 actual SO2 emissions rate...

Slowdown in the decline of stroke mortality in the United States, 1978-1986.

PubMed

Cooper, R; Sempos, C; Hsieh, S C; Kovar, M G

1990-09-01

The gradual decline in stroke mortality rates observed in the United States since 1900 accelerated markedly around 1973 for whites and around 1968 for blacks. During the next decade stroke mortality rates decreased by almost 50% so that the United States now experiences one of the lowest stroke mortality rates in the world. Beginning in 1979, however the annual rate of decline in stroke mortality began to slow considerably. Comparing the period 1979-1986 with the previous decade, a 57% slowing in the absolute rate of decline (as estimated by the slope of the linear portion of the mortality curve) was observed for white men; the corresponding slowdowns in the rate of decline were 58% for white women, 44% for black men, and 62% for black women. If the decline during the 1980s had continued at the rate observed for the period 1968/73-1978, there would have been 131,000 fewer stroke deaths during the period 1979-1986, 28,000 fewer in 1986 alone. This slowdown in the rate of decline in stroke mortality is occurring while mortality rates for both coronary heart disease and all causes are leveling off. The reasons for this change in the mortality trend remain unknown, and corresponding trends in the treatment and control of hypertension do not provide an entirely satisfactory explanation.

Long-term hydrothermal temperature and pressure monitoring equipped with a Kuroko cultivation apparatus on the deep-sea artificial hydrothermal vent at the middle Okinawa Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masaki, Y.; Nozaki, T.; Saruhashi, T.; Kyo, M.; Sakurai, N.; Yokoyama, T.; Akiyama, K.; Watanabe, M.; Kumagai, H.; Maeda, L.; Kinoshita, M.

2017-12-01

The middle Okinawa Trough, located along the Ryukyu- arc on the margin of the East China Sea, has several active hydrothermal fields. From February to March 2016, Cruise CK16-01 by D/V Chikyu targeted the Iheya-North Knoll and southern flank of the Iheya Minor Ridge to comprehend sub-seafloor geological structure and polymetallic sulfide mineralization. In this cruise, we installed two Kuroko cultivation apparatuses equipped with P/T sensors, flowmeter and load cell to monitor pressure, temperature and flow rate of hydrothermal fluid discharged from the artificial hydrothermal vent together with weight of hydrothermal precipitate. During Cruise KR16-17 in January 2017, two cultivation cells with sensor loggers were successfully recovered by ROV Kaiko MK-IV and R/V Kairei. We report these physical sensor data obtained by more than 10 months monitoring at two deep-sea artificial hydrothermal vents through many first and challenging operations.Hole C9017B at southern flank of the Iheya Minor Ridge (water depth of 1,500 mbsl), fluid temperature was constant ca. 75 ºC for 5 months from the beginning of monitoring. Then temperature gradually decrease to be 40 ºC. In November 2016, temperature and pressure suddenly dropped and quickly recovered due to the disturbance of subseafloor hydrology, induced by another drilling operation at Hole C9017A which is 10.8 meters northeastward from Hole C9017B during Cruise CK16-05. Temperature data exhibit conspicuous periodic 12.4hour cycles and this is attributable to oceanic tidal response. The amplitude of temperature variations increased along with decline of the temperature variations increased along with decline of the temperature. The average flow rate was 67 L/min for 9 hours from the onset of monitoring.Hole C9024A at the Iheya-North Knoll (water depth of 1,050 msl), the maximum temperature reached 308 ºC, which is similar to the maximum value of 311 ºC obtained from the ROV thermometer. The average flow rate was 289 L/min for 8 days from onset of monitoring.

Simulation of Ground-Water Flow in the Irwin Basin Aquifer System, Fort Irwin National Training Center, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Densmore, Jill N.

2003-01-01

Ground-water pumping in the Irwin Basin at Fort Irwin National Training Center, California resulted in water-level declines of about 30 feet from 1941 to 1996. Since 1992, artificial recharge from wastewater-effluent infiltration and irrigation-return flow has stabilized water levels, but there is concern that future water demands associated with expansion of the base may cause a resumption of water-level declines. To address these concerns, a ground-water flow model of the Irwin Basin was developed to help better understand the aquifer system, assess the long-term availability and quality of ground water, and evaluate ground-water conditions owing to current pumping and to plan for future water needs at the base. Historical data show that ground-water-level declines in the Irwin Basin between 1941 and 1996, caused the formation of a pumping depression near the pumped wells, and that recharge from the wastewater-treatment facility and disposal area caused the formation of a recharge mound. There have been two periods of water-level recovery in the Irwin Basin since the development of ground water in this basin; these periods coincide with a period of decreased pumpage from the basin and a period of increased recharge of water imported from the Bicycle Basin beginning in 1967 and from the Langford Basin beginning in 1992. Since 1992, artificial recharge has exceeded pumpage in the Irwin Basin and has stabilized water-level declines. A two-layer ground-water flow model was developed to help better understand the aquifer system, assess the long-term availability and quality of ground water, and evaluate ground-water conditions owing to current pumping and to plan for future water needs at the base. Boundary conditions, hydraulic conductivity, altitude of the bottom of the layers, vertical conductance, storage coefficient, recharge, and discharge were determined using existing geohydrologic data. Rates and distribution of recharge and discharge were determined from existing data and estimated when unavailable. Results of predictive simulations indicate that in 50 years, if artificial recharge continues to exceed pumpage in Irwin Basin, water levels could rise as much as 65 feet beneath the pumping depression, and as much as 10 feet in the wastewater-treatment facility and disposal area. Particle-tracking simulations were used to determine the pathlines and the traveltimes of water high in dissolved solids into the main pumping area. The pathlines of particles from two areas with high dissolved-solids concentrations show that in 50 years water from these areas almost reaches the nearest pumped well.

Geohydrology and simulated ground-water flow, Plymouth-Carver Aquifer, southeastern Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Bruce P.; Lapham, Wayne W.

1992-01-01

The Plymouth-Carver aquifer underlies an area of 140 square miles and is the second largest aquifer in areal extent in Massachusetts. It is composed primarily of saturated glacial sand and gravel. The water-table and bedrock surface were mapped and used to determine saturated thickness of the aquifer, which ranged from less than 20 feet to greater than 200 feet. Ground water is present mainly under unconfined conditions, except in a few local areas such as beneath Plymouth Harbor. Recharge to the aquifer is derived almost entirely from precipitation and averages about 1.15 million gallons per day per square mile. Water discharges from the aquifer by pumping, evapotranspiration, direct evaporation from the water table, and seepage to streams, ponds, wetlands, bogs, and the ocean. In 1985, water use was about 59.6 million gallons per day, of which 82 percent was used for cranberry production. The Plymouth-Carver aquifer was simulated by a three-dimensional, finite difference ground-water-flow model. Most model boundaries represent the natural hydrologic boundaries of the aquifer. The model simulates aquifer recharge, withdrawals by pumped wells, leakage through streambeds, and discharge to the ocean. The model was calibrated for steady-state and transient conditions. Model results were compared with measured values of hydraulic head and ground-water discharge. Results of simulations indicate that the modeled ground-water system closely simulates actual aquifer conditions. Four hypothetical ground-water development alternatives were simulated to demonstrate the use of the model and to examine the effects on the ground-water system. Simulation of a 2-year period of no recharge and average pumping rates that occurred from 1980-85 resulted in water-level declines exceeding 5 feet throughout most of the aquifer and a decrease of 54 percent in average ground-water discharge to streams. In a second simulation, four wells in the northern part of the area were pumped at 10.4 million gallons per day in excess of rates simulated in the steady-state model for the four wells. This resulted in water-level declines of 2 feet or more in an area of 25 square miles and a decline in average ground-water discharge to streams of 6 percent. When this pumpage was simulated as recharge to the aquifer, water levels beneath the recharge area rose more than 40 feet, and ground-water discharge remained equal to average discharge in the calibrated steady-state model. In a third simulation, all 21 existing production wells were pumped at nearly the design capacity of 17.8 million gallons per day; this pumping rate produced water-level declines of less than 2 feet throughout most of the aquifer. When simulated pumpage was increased to 32.8 million gallons per day from existing wells and from 15 additional wells, the area where water-level declines exceeded 2 feet significantly increased. In another set of simulations, a well field close to a stream was pumped at rates of 2, 4, and 6 million gallons per day. At a pumping rate of 6 million gallons per day, ground-water discharge to the stream decreased 34 percent during periods of normal precipitation and 56 percent during drought conditions.

Deep brain stimulation reveals emotional impact processing in ventromedial prefrontal cortex.

PubMed

Gjedde, Albert; Geday, Jacob

2009-12-07

We tested the hypothesis that modulation of monoaminergic tone with deep-brain stimulation (DBS) of subthalamic nucleus would reveal a site of reactivity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex that we previously identified by modulating serotonergic and noradrenergic mechanisms by blocking serotonin-noradrenaline reuptake sites. We tested the hypothesis in patients with Parkinson's disease in whom we had measured the changes of blood flow everywhere in the brain associated with the deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus. We determined the emotional reactivity of the patients as the average impact of emotive images rated by the patients off the DBS. We then searched for sites in the brain that had significant correlation of the changes of blood flow with the emotional impact rated by the patients. The results indicate a significant link between the emotional impact when patients are not stimulated and the change of blood flow associated with the DBS. In subjects with a low emotional impact, activity measured as blood flow rose when the electrode was turned on, while in subjects of high impact, the activity at this site in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex declined when the electrode was turned on. We conclude that changes of neurotransmission in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex had an effect on the tissue that depends on changes of monoamine concentration interacting with specific combinations of inhibitory and excitatory monoamine receptors.

Resistance properties of coal-water slurry flowing through local piping fittings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Meng; Duan, Yu Feng

2009-07-15

Local resistance characteristics of coal-water slurry (CWS) flowing through three types of piping components, namely gradual contractions, sudden contractions and 90 horizontal bends, were investigated at a transportation test facility. The results show that CWS exhibits different rheological behaviors, i.e., the shear-thinning, Newtonian, and shear-thicken, at different shear rates. When CWS flows through the gradual contractions, the local pressure loss firstly decreases to a minimum, and then increases as the gradual contraction angle ({theta}) increases. When the CWS flow through the sudden contractions, with the increase of pipe diameter ratio ({beta}), the local pressure loss increases for the two kindsmore » of CWS, SHEN-HUA (S-H) CWS and YAN-ZHOU (Y-Z) CWS whose mass concentration range from 57% to 59% and 59% to 62%, respectively. For 90 horizontal bends, there is an optimal value of the bend diameter ratio (Rc/D) at which the local pressure loss is the least. Furthermore, the local resistance coefficient (K) in the empirical correlations is determined from the experimental data. The correlations show that as Re increases, K of the three fittings declines quickly at first. However, with further increase in Re, K shows different behaviors for the three fittings due to the special rheological property of CWS at higher shear rates. The factors of {theta}, {beta} and Rc/D have minor effects on K. (author)« less

Resistance properties of coal-water slurry flowing through local piping fittings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meng, L.; Duan, Y.F.

2009-07-15

Local resistance characteristics of coal-water slurry (CWS) flowing through three types of piping components, namely gradual contractions, sudden contractions and 90 horizontal bends, were investigated at a transportation test facility. The results show that CWS exhibits different rheological behaviors, i.e., the shear-thinning, Newtonian, and shear-thicken, at different shear rates. When CWS flows through the gradual contractions, the local pressure loss firstly decreases to a minimum, and then increases as the gradual contraction angle {theta} increases. When the CWS flow through the sudden contractions, with the increase of pipe diameter ratio {beta}, the local pressure loss increases for the two kindsmore » of CWS, SHEN-HUA (S-H) CWS and YAN-ZHOU (Y-Z) CWS whose mass concentration range from 57% to 59% and 59% to 62%, respectively. For 90 horizontal bends, there is an optimal value of the bend diameter ratio (Rc/D) at which the local pressure loss is the least. Furthermore, the local resistance coefficient (K) in the empirical correlations is determined from the experimental data. The correlations show that as Re increases, K of the three fittings declines quickly at first. However, with further increase in Re, K shows different behaviors for the three fittings due to the special rheological property of CWS at higher shear rates. The factors of theta, beta and Rc/D have minor effects on K.« less

Accounting for sap flow from different parts of the root system improves the prediction of xylem ABA concentration in plants grown with heterogeneous soil moisture.

PubMed

Dodd, Ian C; Egea, Gregorio; Davies, William J

2008-01-01

When soil moisture is heterogeneous, sap flow from, and ABA status of, different parts of the root system impact on leaf xylem ABA concentration ([X-ABA]leaf). The robustness of a model for predicting [X-ABA]leaf was assessed. 'Two root-one shoot' grafted sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) plants received either deficit irrigation (DI, each root system received the same irrigation volumes) or partial rootzone drying (PRD, only one root system was watered and the other dried the soil). Irrespective of whether relative sap flow was assessed using sap flow sensors in vivo or by pressurization of de-topped roots, each root system contributed similarly to total sap flow during DI, while sap flow from roots in drying soil declined linearly with soil water potential (Psisoil) during PRD. Although Psisoil of the irrigated pot determined the threshold Psisoil at which sap flow from roots in drying soil decreased, the slope of this decrease was independent of the wet pot Psisoil. Irrespective of whether sap was collected from the wet or dry root system of PRD plants, or a DI plant, root xylem ABA concentration increased as Psisoil declined. The model, which weighted ABA contributions of each root system according to the sap flow from each, almost perfectly explained [X-ABA] immediately above the graft union. That the model overestimated measured [X-ABA]leaf may result from changes in [X-ABA] along the transport pathway or an artefact of collecting xylem sap from detached leaves. The implications of declining sap flow through partially dry roots during PRD for the control of stomatal behaviour and irrigation scheduling are discussed.

Porting Inition and Failure to Linked Cheetah

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vitello, P; Souers, P C

2007-07-18

Linked CHEETAH is a thermo-chemical code coupled to a 2-D hydrocode. Initially, a quadratic-pressure dependent kinetic rate was used, which worked well in modeling prompt detonation of explosives of large size, but does not work on other aspects of explosive behavior. The variable-pressure Tarantula reactive flow rate model was developed with JWL++ in order to also describe failure and initiation, and we have moved this model into Linked CHEETAH. The model works by turning on only above a pressure threshold, where a slow turn-on creates initiation. At a higher pressure, the rate suddenly leaps to a large value over amore » small pressure range. A slowly failing cylinder will see a rapidly declining rate, which pushes it quickly into failure. At a high pressure, the detonation rate is constant. A sequential validation procedure is used, which includes metal-confined cylinders, rate-sticks, corner-turning, initiation and threshold, gap tests and air gaps. The size (diameter) effect is central to the calibration.« less

Dryland Salinity in the North Stirling Land Conservation District, Western Australia: Simulation and Management Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomboso, J.; Ghassemi, F.; Appleyard, S. J.

1997-01-01

The North Stirling Land Conservation District consists of approximately 100,000 hectares north of the Stirling Range National Park, Western Australia. Clearing of land for agriculture occurred in the 1960's and early 1970's. The groundwater is highly saline, and, since clearing, the water table has risen by as much as 12 m; it is now generally less than 3 m below ground level throughout the area. The rise in groundwater levels following clearing and the use of crops and pastures requiring low water use have caused dramatic secondary salinisation over a short period of time. Groundwater flow was simulated with models of steady-state and transient groundwater flow. By incorporating economic simulations with the calibrated transient hydrogeological model, estimates of the expected gross margin losses were made. Three salinity-management strategies were simulated. Results indicate that 1) under the `do-nothing' strategy, future gross margins are expected to decline; 2) under the agronomic strategy, the rate of water-table rise would be reduced and foregone agricultural production losses would be less than the `do-nothing' strategy; and 3) under the agroforestry strategy, the water table is expected to decline in the long term, which would increase future agricultural production levels and, hence, profitability.

Influence of a water regulation event on the age of Yellow River water in the Bohai

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhen; Wang, Haiyan; Guo, Xinyu; Liu, Zhe; Gao, Huiwang; Zhang, Guiling

2017-10-01

Abrupt changes in freshwater inputs from large rivers usually imply regime shifts in coastal water environments. The influence of a water regulation event on the age of the Yellow River water in the Bohai was modeled using constituent-oriented age and residence time theory to better understand the change in the environmental function of the hydrodynamic field owing to human activities. The water ages in Laizhou Bay, the central basin, and the Bohai strait are sensitive to water regulation. The surface ages in those areas can decrease by about 300 days, particularly in July, and the age stratification is also strengthened. A water regulation event can result in declines in the water age in early July ahead of declines in the water age under climatological conditions (without the regulation event) by about 1 and 5 months in the central basin and Laizhou Bay, respectively. The change in the coastal circulation due to the water regulation event is the primary reason for the change in the Yellow River water age. The high Yellow River flow rate can enhance the density flow and, therefore, reduce the age of the Yellow River water. The subsequent impact of a single water regulation event can last about 1.0 to 4.0 years in different subregions.

Investigating recent trends in the U.S. teen birth rate.

PubMed

Kearney, Melissa S; Levine, Phillip B

2015-05-01

We investigate trends in the U.S. rate of teen childbearing between 1981 and 2010, focusing specifically on the sizable decline since 1991. We focus on establishing the role of state-level demographic changes, economic conditions, and targeted policies in driving recent aggregate trends. We offer three main observations. First, the recent decline cannot be explained by the changing racial and ethnic composition of teens. Second, the only targeted policies that have had a statistically discernible impact on aggregate teen birth rates are declining welfare benefits and expanded access to family planning services through Medicaid, but these policies can account for only 12.6 percent of the observed decline since 1991. Third, higher unemployment rates lead to lower teen birth rates and can account for 16 percent of the decline in teen birth rates since the Great Recession began. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Basic Experiment on the Aerodynamics of Sniffing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Settles, Gary S.; Kester, Douglas A.

1999-11-01

Our previous work (APS/DFD97:Ii1 and 98:FA10) used flow visualization to observe canine olfaction. The results raised some basic questions about the aerodynamics of sniffing, e.g. what flow rate is required, as a function of distance from a scent source, to acquire a detectable scent? Commercial sampler technology does not address such questions. A basic experiment was thus designed to investigate the aerodynamic phenomena and performance of sniffing. A stable thermal layer on a horizontal plane was used as a "scent" source per Reynolds Analogy. The detector was a thermocouple inside a sniffer tube. Flow patterns were observed by schlieren. Results show the importance of sniffer proximity to localize a scent source. A transient scent spike occurs at the sniff onset, followed by signal decline due to source depletion. Sniffing shows extreme sensitivity to disruptive air currents. Unstably-stratified scent sources (thermal plumes) are also considered. These results help us understand evolved sniffing behavior, and they suggest sampler design criteria for electronic-nose devices. (Research supported by DARPA.)

FEV1 decline in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease associated with biomass exposure.

PubMed

Ramírez-Venegas, Alejandra; Sansores, Raul H; Quintana-Carrillo, Roger H; Velázquez-Uncal, Monica; Hernandez-Zenteno, Rafael J; Sánchez-Romero, Candelaria; Velazquez-Montero, Alejandra; Flores-Trujillo, Fernando

2014-11-01

Biomass exposure is an important risk factor for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, the time-course behavior of FEV1 in subjects exposed to biomass is unknown. We undertook this study to determine the FEV1 rate decline in subjects exposed to biomass. Pulmonary function was assessed every year in a Mexican cohort of patients with COPD associated with biomass or tobacco during a 15-year follow-up period. The mean rate of decline was significantly lower for the biomass exposure COPD group (BE-COPD) than for the tobacco smoke COPD group (TS-COPD) (23 vs. 42 ml, respectively; P < 0.01). Of the TS-COPD group, 11% were rapid decliners, whereas only one rapid decliner was found in the BE-COPD group; 69 and 21% of smokers versus 17 and 83% of the BE-COPD group were slow decliners and sustainers, respectively. A higher FEV1 both as % predicted and milliliters was a predictive factor for decline for BE-COPD and TS-COPD, whereas reversibility to bronchodilator was a predictive factor for both groups when adjusted by FEV1% predicted and only for the TS-COPD group when adjusted by milliliters. In the biomass exposure COPD group the rate of FEV1 decline is slower and shows a more homogeneous rate of decline over time in comparison with smokers. The rapid rate of FEV1 decline is a rare feature of biomass-induced airflow limitation.

Simulation of Reclaimed-Water Injection and Pumping Scenarios and Particle-Tracking Analysis near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petkewich, Matthew D.; Campbell, Bruce G.

2009-01-01

The effect of injecting reclaimed water into the Middendorf aquifer beneath Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, was simulated using a groundwater-flow model of the Coastal Plain Physiographic Province of South Carolina and parts of Georgia and North Carolina. Reclaimed water, also known as recycled water, is wastewater or stormwater that has been treated to an appropriate level so that the water can be reused. The scenarios were simulated to evaluate potential changes in groundwater flow and groundwater-level conditions caused by injecting reclaimed water into the Middendorf aquifer. Simulations included a Base Case and two injection scenarios. Maximum pumping rates were simulated as 6.65, 8.50, and 10.5 million gallons per day for the Base Case, Scenario 1, and Scenario 2, respectively. The Base Case simulation represents a non-injection estimate of the year 2050 groundwater levels for comparison purposes for the two injection scenarios. For Scenarios 1 and 2, the simulated injection of reclaimed water at 3 million gallons per day begins in 2012 and continues through 2050. The flow paths and time of travel for the injected reclaimed water were simulated using particle-tracking analysis. The simulations indicated a general decline of groundwater altitudes in the Middendorf aquifer in the Mount Pleasant, South Carolina, area between 2004 and 2050 for the Base Case and two injection scenarios. For the Base Case, groundwater altitudes generally declined about 90 feet from the 2004 groundwater levels. For Scenarios 1 and 2, although groundwater altitudes initially increased in the Mount Pleasant area because of the simulated injection, these higher groundwater levels declined as Mount Pleasant Waterworks pumping increased over time. When compared to the Base Case simulation, 2050 groundwater altitudes for Scenario 1 are between 15 feet lower to 23 feet higher for production wells, between 41 and 77 feet higher for the injection wells, and between 9 and 23 feet higher for observation wells in the Mount Pleasant area. When compared to the Base Case simulation, 2050 groundwater altitudes for Scenario 2 are between 2 and 106 feet lower for production wells and observation wells and between 11 and 27 feet higher for the injection wells in the Mount Pleasant area. Water budgets for the model area immediately surrounding the Mount Pleasant area were calculated for 2011 and for 2050. The largest flow component for the 2050 water budget in the Mount Pleasant area is discharge through wells at rates between 7.1 and 10.9 million gallons of water per day. This groundwater is replaced predominantly by between 6.0 and 7.8 million gallons per day of lateral groundwater flow within the Middendorf aquifer for the Base Case and two scenarios and through reclaimed-water injection of 3 million gallons per day for Scenarios 1 and 2. In addition, between 175,000 and 319,000 gallons of groundwater are removed from this area per day because of the regional hydraulic gradient. Additional sources of water to this area are groundwater storage releases at rates between 86,800 and 116,000 gallons per day and vertical flow from over- and underlying confining units at rates between 69,100 and 150,000 gallons per day. Reclaimed water injected into the Middendorf aquifer at three hypothetical injection wells moved to the Mount Pleasant Waterworks production wells in 18 to 256 years as indicated by particle-tracking simulations. Time of travel varied from 18 to 179 years for simulated conditions of 20 percent uniform aquifer porosity and between 25 to 256 years for 30 percent uniform aquifer porosity.

Quantifying seepage using heat as a tracer in selected irrigation canals, Walker River Basin, Nevada, 2012 and 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naranjo, Ramon C.; Smith, David W.

2016-11-16

The Walker River is an important source of water for western Nevada. The river provides water for agriculture and recharge to local aquifers used by several communities. Farmers began diverting water from the Walker River in the 1860s to support growing agricultural development. Over time, the reduced inflows into Walker Lake from upstream reservoirs and diversions have resulted in 170 feet of lake level decline and increased dissolved-solids concentrations to levels that threaten aquatic ecosystems, including survival of Lahonton cutthroat trout, a native species listed in the Endangered Species Act. Investigations of the water-budget components in the Walker River Basin have revealed uncertainty in the recharge to aquifers from irrigation canals. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted an extensive field study from March 2012 through October 2013 to quantify seepage losses in selected canals in the Smith Valley, Mason Valley, and Walker Lake Valley irrigation areas.The seepage rates estimated for the 2012 and 2013 irrigation seasons in the Smith Valley transect sites (Saroni and Plymouth canals) ranged between 0.01 to 2.5 feet per day (ft/d) (0.01 to 0.68 cubic feet per second per mile [ft3/s-mi]). From 2012 to 2013, the average number of days the canals had flowing water decreased from 190 to 125 due to drier climate and lack of water available for diversion from the Walker River. The nearly 50-percent reductions in volumetric loss rates between 2012 and 2013 were associated with less than average diversions into canals from the Walker River and reductions in infiltration rates following routine canal maintenance.Models developed for the Saroni canal in 2012 were recalibrated in 2013 to evaluate changes in seepage as a result of siltation. Just prior to the 2012 irrigation season, nearly the entire length of the canal was cleared of vegetation and debris to improve flow conveyance. In 2013, following the first year of maintenance, a 90-percent reduction in seepage was observed at one of the transect sites. The removal of sediment-clogged layers during canal maintenance may have more profound effects on seepage rates beyond what was observed at the transect sites. The seepage rates for the Saroni canal in 2012 ranged from 0.02 to 1.6 ft/d (0.03 to 0.4 ft3/s-mi). The total seepage loss in the Saroni canal for the 2012 and 2013 irrigation seasons was estimated to be 1,100 and 590 acre-feet (acre-ft), respectively.Seepage rates on the Plymouth canal in Smith Valley in 2012 were among the lowest, ranging from 0.01 to 0.2 ft/d (0.01 to 0.1 ft3/s-mi). In 2013, the seepage rate on the Plymouth canal was similar to 2012; however, the volumetric loss was reduced by 50 percent due to the 50-percent reduction in number of canal flow days. Lower rates of seepage on the Plymouth canal for the 2012 and 2013 irrigation seasons were estimated to be 210 and 130 acre-ft, respectively.The seepage rates estimated for the 2012 and 2013 irrigation seasons in the Mason Valley transect sites (Fox, Mickey, and Campbell ditches) ranged from 0.1 to 3.3 ft/d (0.2 to 1.3 ft3/s-mi). The influence of water-table declines on seepage was observed at the Mickey and Campbell ditches. In 2012, the estimated seepage on the Mickey ditch was 1.6 ft/d during a period when the water-table altitude was at or above the canal altitude. Following extensive declines in the water table, the hydraulic gradient increased between the canal and the shallow aquifer, thereby increasing the seepage rates to 3.2 ft/d in 2013. During the period of hydraulic disconnection, seepage rates increased to 9.5 ft/d during intermittent periods of canal flow. For the Mickey ditch, the seepage loss in 2013 was 1.5 times the rate estimated in 2012 despite the canal having 45 days less flow. Similarly, the Campbell ditch seepage loss increased slightly from 660 to 700 acre-ft, a factor of 1.1, with 49 days less flow. The seepage loss for the Fox ditch did not exhibit significant year to year variability. The annual seepage loss estimated for 2012 and 2013 in the Fox ditch was 2,100 and 2,200 acre-ft, respectively.The seepage rates estimated for the 2013 irrigation season in the Walker Lake Valley transect sites (Schurz Lateral Canals 1A and 2A, and Canal 2) ranged from 0.7 to 0.9 ft/d (0.4 to 1.3 ft3/s-mi). In Walker Lake Valley, diversions into Lateral Canals 1A and 2A during the 2013 irrigation season were highly intermittent, a characteristic common of lateral diversions. The annual estimated seepage loss in Walker Lake Valley ranged between 50 and 725 acre-ft among the transect sites.

Hierarchy and Speed of Loss in Physical Functioning: A Comparison Across Older U.S. and English Men and Women.

PubMed

Bendayan, Rebecca; Cooper, Rachel; Wloch, Elizabeth G; Hofer, Scott M; Piccinin, Andrea M; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela

2017-08-01

We aimed to identify the hierarchy of rates of decline in 16 physical functioning measures in U.S. and English samples, using a systematic and integrative coordinated data analysis approach. The U.S. sample consisted of 13,612 Health and Retirement Study participants, and the English sample consisted of 5,301 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing participants. Functional loss was ascertained using self-reported difficulties performing 6 activities of daily living and 10 mobility tasks. The variables were standardized, rates of decline were computed, and mean rates of decline were ranked. Mann-Whitney U tests were performed to compare rates of decline between studies. In both studies, the rates of decline followed a similar pattern; difficulty with eating was the activity that showed the slowest decline and climbing several flights of stairs and stooping, kneeling, or crouching the fastest declines. There were statistical differences in the speed of decline in all 16 measures between countries. American women had steeper declines in 10 of the measures than English women. Similar differences were found between American and English men. Reporting difficulties climbing several flights of stairs without resting, and stooping, kneeling, or crouching are the first indicators of functional loss reported in both populations. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America.

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

2013-01-01

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

Nest success of snowy plovers (Charadrius nivosus) in the Southern high plains of Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saalfeld, S.T.; Conway, Warren C.; Haukos, D.A.; Johnson, W.P.

2011-01-01

Snowy Plovers (Charadrius nivosus) nesting on edges of saline lakes within the Southern High Plains (SHP) of Texas are threatened by habitat degradation due to reduced artesian spring flow, making many saline lakes unsuitable for nesting and migrating shorebirds. Factors influencing nest success were evaluated, current nest success estimates in the SHP of Texas were compared to estimates obtained ten years prior, and causes and timing of nest failures determined. Overall, 215 nests were monitored from three saline lakes in 20082009, with nest success estimates from Program MARK ranging from 7-33% ( x??= 22%). The leading causes of nest failures were attributed to predation (40%) and weather (36%). Nest success was negatively influenced by number of plants within 707-cm 2 plot, positively influenced by percent surface water availability, and at one saline lake, negatively influenced by day during the nesting season (i.e., nest success declined later in the nesting season). When compared to estimates ten years prior (19981999), mean nest success has declined by 31%. If nesting Snowy Plovers continue to experience increased predation rates, decreased hydrological integrity, and habitat alterations, populations will continue to decline throughout this region.

The natural history of cardiac and pulmonary function decline in patients with duchenne muscular dystrophy.

PubMed

Roberto, Rolando; Fritz, Anto; Hagar, Yolanda; Boice, Braden; Skalsky, Andrew; Hwang, Hosun; Beckett, Laurel; McDonald, Craig; Gupta, Munish

2011-07-01

Retrospective review of scoliosis progression, pulmonary and cardiac function in a series of patients with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). To determine whether operative treatment of scoliosis decreases the rate of pulmonary function loss in patients with DMD. It is generally accepted that surgical intervention should be undertaken in DMD scoliosis once curve sizes reach 35° to allow intervention before critical respiratory decline has occurred. There are conflicting reports, however, regarding the effect of scoliosis stabilization on the rate of pulmonary function decline when compared to nonoperative cohorts. We reviewed spinal radiographs, echocardiograms, and spirometry, hospital, and operative records of all patients seen at our tertiary referral center from July 1, 1992 to June 1, 2007. Data were recorded to Microsoft Excel (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) and analyzed with SAS (SAS Institute, Cary, NC) and R statistical processing software (www.r-project.org). The percent predicted forced vital capacity (PPFVC) decreased 5% per year before operation. The mean PPFVC was 54% (SD = 21%) before operation with a mean postoperative PPFVC of 43% (SD = 14%). Surgical treatment was associated with a 12% decline in PPFVC independent of other treatment variables. PPFVC after operation declined at a rate of 1% per year and while this rate was lower, it was not significantly different than the rate of decline present before operation (P = 0.18). Cardiac function as measured by left ventricular fractional shortening declined at a rate of 1% per year with most individuals exhibiting a left ventricular fractional shortening rate of more than 30 before operation. Operative treatment of scoliosis in DMD using the Luque Galveston method was associated with a reduction of forced vital capacity related to operation. The rate of pulmonary function decline after operation was not significantly reduced when compared with the rate of preoperative forced vital capacity decline.

Clinical Use of Dornase Alfa Is Associated with a Slower Rate of FEV1 Decline in Cystic Fibrosis

PubMed Central

Konstan, Michael W.; Wagener, Jeffrey S.; Pasta, David J.; Millar, Stefanie J.; Jacobs, Joan R.; Yegin, Ashley; Morgan, Wayne J.

2014-01-01

SUMMARY Objectives Randomized controlled trials of dornase alfa have shown forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) to improve in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) but have not assessed change in the rate of lung function decline. We assessed the relationship of dornase alfa use and FEV1 decline using the Epidemiologic Study of CF (ESCF). Methodology Patients aged 8–38 years who had been enrolled in ESCF for 2 years when initially treated with dornase alfa were selected if they remained on treatment during the following 2 years. A comparator group included patients aged 8–38 who were not yet reported to have received dornase alfa. For each patient we estimated the annual rate of decline in FEV1 % predicted before and after the index using a mixed-effects model adjusted for age, gender, pulmonary exacerbations, respiratory therapies, and nutritional supplements. Results The dornase alfa group (n = 2,230) had a lower FEV1 % predicted at index and a more rapid decline during the pre-index period. The mean rate of FEV1 decline improved for the dornase alfa group; the improvement was similar in adults and children 8–17 years old but was not statistically significant in adults. The comparator group (n = 5,970) showed no change among adults and an increased rate of decline among children 8–17 years old. Conclusions The use of dornase alfa for a 2-year period is associated with a reduction in the rate of FEV1 decline. These results also demonstrate the value of using an observational study to assess the association of instituting new therapies in the clinical setting with changes in the rate of FEV1 decline in patients with CF. PMID:21438174

Functional decline in Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Feigin, A; Kieburtz, K; Bordwell, K; Como, P; Steinberg, K; Sotack, J; Zimmerman, C; Hickey, C; Orme, C; Shoulson, I

1995-03-01

We prospectively evaluated 129 patients with manifest Huntington's disease (HD) to determine the rate of illness progression and the clinical features that correlate with functional decline. A single examiner evaluated each patient using the HD Functional Capacity Scale. Standardized motor performance was also assessed in 94 of the patients (73%) using the HD Rating Scale. Total Functional Capacity declined at a rate of 0.63 +/- 0.75 U per year. As functional capacity worsened, chorea lessened, and dystonia intensified. There was no correlation between rate of functional decline and age at onset of HD, body weight, gender of affected parent, or history of neuroleptic use.

Downward Spirals, Boiled Frogs, and Catastrophes: Examining the Rate of School Decline

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hochbein, Craig

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the validity of common assumptions about the rate at which school decline manifests. From a population of 981 elementary schools in the state of Virginia, the author uses three operational definitions of school decline to identify samples of declining schools: Absolute (n = 217), Relational (n = 510), and…

Oak decline risk rating for the southeastern United States

Treesearch

S. Oak; F. Tainter; J. Williams; D. Starkey

1996-01-01

Oak decline risk rating models were developed for upland hardwood forests in the southeastern United States using data gathered during regional oak decline surveys. Stepwise discriminant analyses were used to relate 12 stand and site variables with major oak decline incidence for each of three subregions plus one incorporating all subregions. The best model for the...

Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

2009-09-01

Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

Effect of Inlet and Outlet Flow Conditions on Natural Gas Parameters in Supersonic Separation Process

PubMed Central

Yang, Yan; Wen, Chuang; Wang, Shuli; Feng, Yuqing

2014-01-01

A supersonic separator has been introduced to remove water vapour from natural gas. The mechanisms of the upstream and downstream influences are not well understood for various flow conditions from the wellhead and the back pipelines. We used a computational model to investigate the effect of the inlet and outlet flow conditions on the supersonic separation process. We found that the shock wave was sensitive to the inlet or back pressure compared to the inlet temperature. The shock position shifted forward with a higher inlet or back pressure. It indicated that an increasing inlet pressure declined the pressure recovery capacity. Furthermore, the shock wave moved out of the diffuser when the ratio of the back pressure to the inlet one was greater than 0.75, in which the state of the low pressure and temperature was destroyed, resulting in the re-evaporation of the condensed liquids. Natural gas would be the subsonic flows in the whole supersonic separator, if the mass flow rate was less than the design value, and it could not reach the low pressure and temperature for the condensation and separation of the water vapor. These results suggested a guidance mechanism for natural gas supersonic separation in various flow conditions. PMID:25338207

QuickStats: Birth Rates Among Teens Aged 15-19 Years, by Race/Hispanic Ethnicity* - National Vital Statistics System, United States,(†) 2007 and 2015(§).

PubMed

2016-08-19

From 2007 to 2015, the birth rate for female teens aged 15-19 years declined 46%, from 41.5 to 22.3 births per 1,000, the lowest rate ever recorded for this population in the United States. In 2015, rates declined to record lows for all racial/ethnic populations, with declines ranging from 41% for non-Hispanic white teens to 54% for Hispanic teens. Despite the declines, teen birth rates by race/Hispanic ethnicity continued to reflect wide disparities, with rates ranging from 6.9 per 1,000 for Asian or Pacific Islander teens to 34.9 for Hispanic teens in 2015.

Trends in fatal occupational injuries and industrial restructuring in North Carolina in the 1980s.

PubMed Central

Richardson, D; Loomis, D

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the relationship between changes in employment in North Carolina in the 1980s and fatal occupational injury rates. METHODS: Unintentional fatal occupational injuries (n = 1989) in North Carolina between 1978 and 1991 were identified via the medical examiner's system. RESULTS: Overall fatal injury rates declined during the 1980s, but rates increased 9.6% per year among manufacturing industries that declined in employment size; rates fell among service sector and manufacturing industries that grew. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing occupational fatal injury rates accompanied the decline in workforce in North Carolina's traditional, labor-intensive manufacturing industries during the 1980s, while service sector and expanding manufacturing industries have experienced declining fatal injury rates. PMID:9224194

Paleomagnetic secular variation at the Azores during the last 3 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Chiara, Anita; Speranza, Fabio; Porreca, Massimiliano

2012-07-01

We report on 33 new paleomagnetic directions obtained from 16 lava flows emplaced in the last 3 ka on São Miguel, the largest island of the Azores. The data provide 27 well-dated directions from historical or 14C dated flows which, together with 6 directions previously gathered from the same flows by Johnson et al. (1998), yield the first paleomagnetic directional record of the last 3 ka from the Atlantic Ocean. Within-flow directions are consistent, suggesting that inclination swings from 60° to 25° and declination changes between -10° to 20° reflect variations in the geomagnetic field over the last 3 ka. To a first approximation, the declination record is consistent with predictions from CALS3k.4 and gufm1 global field models. Conversely, inclination values are lower than model predictions at two different ages: 1) four sites from the 1652 AD flow yield I = 48° instead of I = 63° predicted by gufm1; 2) data from several flows nicely mimic the inclination minimum of 800-1400 AD, but inclination values are lower by ˜10° than CALS3k.4 model predictions. By interpolating a cubic spline fit on declination / inclination versus age data, we tentatively infer the directional evolution of the geomagnetic field at the Azores from 1000 BC to 1600 AD. The obtained curve shows three tracks in virtual overlap during the 1000-800 BC, 800-500 BC, and 400-700 AD time spans.

Climatic Variation and River Flows in Himalayan Basins Upstream of Large Dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eaton, D.; Collins, D. N.

2014-12-01

High specific discharges from Himalayan headwater basins feed major reservoirs generating hydropower and supplying water to irrigation schemes across the Punjab plains of north-west India and Pakistan. Flow arises from seasonal winter snow cover, summer monsoon precipitation and melting glacier ice in varying proportions and differing absolute quantities along west -east axes of the Karakoram and western Himalaya. Discharge records for stations above Tarbela (Indus), Mangla (Jhelum), Marala (Chenab) and Bhakra (Sutlej) dams have been examined for periods between 1920 and 2009, together with precipitation and air temperature data for stations with long records (within the period 1893 to 2013) at elevations between 234 and 3015 m a.s.l. Ice-cover age in the basins above the dams was between 1 and 12 %. Flows in the Sutlej, Chenab and Jhelum reached maxima in the 1950s before declining to the 1970s. Flow in the Chenab and Jhelum increased to 1950s levels in the 1990s, before falling steeply into the 2000s mimicking variations in winter and monsoon precipitation. Discharge in the Indus at Tarbela increased from the 1970s, reaching a maximum in the late 1980s/early 1990s, before declining back to 1970s levels in the 2000s, flow being influenced not only by precipitation fluctuations but also by changes in air temperature affecting glacier melt in headwater basins. Runoff at Bhakra was augmented by flow from the Beas-Sutlej link canal after 1977, but natural flow in the Sutlej above Luhri reduced considerably from the 1990s influenced by declining flows in the relatively dry but large Tibetan portion of the basin area. Large year-to-year fluctuations of reservoir inflows are nonetheless based on significant sustained underlying discharge levels at all four reservoirs.

Predicting membrane flux decline from complex mixtures using flow-field flow fractionation measurements and semi-empirical theory.

PubMed

Pellegrino, J; Wright, S; Ranvill, J; Amy, G

2005-01-01

Flow-Field Flow Fractionation (FI-FFF) is an idealization of the cross flow membrane filtration process in that, (1) the filtration flux and crossflow velocity are constant from beginning to end of the device, (2) the process is a relatively well-defined laminar-flow hydrodynamic condition, and (3) the solutes are introduced as a pulse-input that spreads due to interactions with each other and the membrane in the dilute-solution limit. We have investigated the potential for relating FI-FFF measurements to membrane fouling. An advection-dispersion transport model was used to provide 'ideal' (defined as spherical, non-interacting solutes) solute residence time distributions (RTDs) for comparison with 'real' RTDs obtained experimentally at different cross-field velocities and solution ionic strength. An RTD moment analysis based on a particle diameter probability density function was used to extract "effective" characteristic properties, rather than uniquely defined characteristics, of the standard solute mixture. A semi-empirical unsteady-state, flux decline model was developed that uses solute property parameters. Three modes of flux decline are included: (1) concentration polarization, (2) cake buildup, and (3) adsorption on/in pores, We have used this model to test the hypothesis-that an analysis of a residence time distribution using FI-FFF can describe 'effective' solute properties or indices that can be related to membrane flux decline in crossflow membrane filtration. Constant flux filtration studies included the changes of transport hydrodynamics (solvent flux to solute back diffusion (J/k) ratios), solution ionic strength, and feed water composition for filtration using a regenerated cellulose ultrafiltration membrane. Tests of the modeling hypothesis were compared with experimental results from the filtration measurements using several correction parameters based on the mean and variance of the solute RTDs. The corrections used to modify the boundary layer mass transfer coefficient and the specific resistance of cake or adsorption layers demonstrated that RTD analysis is potentially useful technique to describe colloid properties but requires improvements.

Progress has Stalled in U.S. Stroke Death Rates after Decades of Decline

MedlinePlus

... Library (PHIL) Progress has stalled in US stroke death rates after decades of decline More timely stroke ... cdc.gov/vitalsigns/stroke/infographic.html#graphic) Stroke death declines have stalled in 3 out of every ...

Experimental Investigation of Rainfall Impact on Overland Flow Driven Erosion Processes and Flow Hydrodynamics on a Steep Hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, P.; Xu, X.; Pan, C.; Hsu, K. L.; Yang, T.

2016-12-01

Few attempts have been made to investigate the quantitative effects of rainfall on overland flow driven erosion processes and flow hydrodynamics on steep hillslopes under field conditions. Field experiments were performed in flows for six inflow rates (q: 6-36 Lmin-1m-1) with and without rainfall (60 mm h-1) on a steep slope (26°) to investigate: (1) the quantitative effects of rainfall on runoff and sediment yield processes, and flow hydrodynamics; (2) the effect of interaction between rainfall and overland flow on soil loss. Results showed that the rainfall increased runoff coefficients and the fluctuation of temporal variations in runoff. The rainfall significantly increased soil loss (10.6-68.0%), but this increment declined as q increased. When the interrill erosion dominated (q=6 Lmin-1m-1), the increment in the rill erosion was 1.5 times that in the interrill erosion, and the effect of the interaction on soil loss was negative. When the rill erosion dominated (q=6-36 Lmin-1m-1), the increment in the interrill erosion was 1.7-8.8 times that in the rill erosion, and the effect of the interaction on soil loss became positive. The rainfall was conducive to the development of rills especially for low inflow rates. The rainfall always decreased interrill flow velocity, decreased rill flow velocity (q=6-24 Lmin-1m-1), and enhanced the spatial uniformity of the velocity distribution. Under rainfall disturbance, flow depth, Reynolds number (Re) and resistance were increased but Froude number was reduced, and lower Re was needed to transform a laminar flow to turbulent flow. The rainfall significantly increased flow shear stress (τ) and stream power (φ), with the most sensitive parameters to sediment yield being τ (R2=0.994) and φ (R2=0.993), respectively, for non-rainfall and rainfall conditions. Compared to non-rainfall conditions, there was a reduction in the critical hydrodynamic parameters of mean flow velocity, τ, and φ by the rainfall. These findings provide a better understanding on the influence mechanism of rainfall impact on hillslope erosion processes.

Simulated water-level and water-quality changes in the bolson-fill aquifer, Post Headquarters area, White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risser, D.W.

1988-01-01

The quantity of freshwater available in the Post Headquarters well field, White Sand Missile Range, New Mexico, is limited and its quality is threatened by saltwater enroachment. A three-dimensional, finite-difference, groundwater flow model and a cross-sectional, density-dependent solute-transport model were constructed to simulate possible future water level declines and water quality changes in the Post Headquarters well field. A six-layer flow model was constructed using hydraulic-conductivity values in the upper 600 ft of saturated aquifer ranging from 0.1 to 10 ft/day, specific yield of 0.15, and average recharge of about 1,590 acre-ft/yr. Water levels simulated by the model closely matched measured water levels for 1948-82. Possible future water level changes for 1983-2017 were simulated using rates of groundwater withdrawal of 1,033 and 2 ,066 acre-ft/year and wastewater return flow of 0 or 30% of the groundwater withdrawal rate. The cross-sectional solute-transport model indicated that the freshwater zone is about 1,500 to 2,000 ft thick beneath the well field. Transient simulations show that solutes probably will move laterally toward the well field rather than from beneath the well field. (USGS)

Three-dimensional modeling of air flow and pollutant dispersion in an urban street canyon with thermal effects.

PubMed

Tsai, Mong-Yu; Chen, Kang-Shin; Wu, Chung-Hsing

2005-08-01

Effects of excess ground and building temperatures on airflow and dispersion of pollutants in an urban street canyon with an aspect ratio of 0.8 and a length-to-width ratio of 3 were investigated numerically. Three-dimensional governing equations of mass, momentum, energy, and species were modeled using the RNG k-epsilon turbulence model and Boussinesq approximation, which were solved using the finite volume method. Vehicle emissions were estimated from the measured traffic flow rates and modeled as banded line sources, with a street length and bandwidths equal to typical vehicle widths. Both measurements and simulations reveal that pollutant concentrations typically follow the traffic flow rate; they decline as the height increases and are higher on the leeward side than on the windward side. Three-dimensional simulations reveal that the vortex line, joining the centers of cross-sectional vortexes of the street canyon, meanders between street buildings and shifts toward the windward side when heating strength is increased. Thermal boundary layers are very thin. Entrainment of outside air increases, and pollutant concentration decreases with increasing heating condition. Also, traffic-produced turbulence enhances the turbulent kinetic energy and the mixing of temperature and admixtures in the canyon. Factors affecting the inaccuracy of the simulations are addressed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goltz, M.N.; Oxley, M.E.

Aquifer cleanup efforts at contaminated sites frequently involve operation of a system of extraction wells. It has been found that contaminant load discharged by extraction wells typically declines with time, asymptotically approaching a residual level. Such behavior could be due to rate-limited desorption of an organic contaminant from aquifer solids. An analytical model is presented which accounts for rate-limited desorption of an organic solute during cleanup of a contaminated site. Model equations are presented which describe transport of a sorbing contaminant in a converging radial flow field, with sorption described by (1) equilibrium, (2) first-order rate, and (3) Fickian diffusionmore » expressions. The model equations are solved in the Laplace domain and numerically inverted to simulate contaminant concentrations at an extraction well. A Laplace domain solution for the total contaminant mass remaining in the aquifer is also derived. It is shown that rate-limited sorption can have a significant impact upon aquifer remediation. Approximate equivalence among the various rate-limited models is also demonstrated.« less

Fish assemblage responses to water withdrawals and water supply reservoirs in Piedmont streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Freeman, Mary C.; Marcinek, P.A.

2006-01-01

Understanding effects of flow alteration on stream biota is essential to developing ecologically sustainable water supply strategies. We evaluated effects of altering flows via surface water withdrawals and instream reservoirs on stream fish assemblages, and compared effects with other hypothesized drivers of species richness and assemblage composition. We sampled fishes during three years in 28 streams used for municipal water supply in the Piedmont region of Georgia, U.S.A. Study sites had permitted average withdrawal rates that ranged from 13 times the stream?s seven-day, ten-year recurrence low flow (7Q10), and were located directly downstream either from a water supply reservoir or from a withdrawal taken from an unimpounded stream. Ordination analysis of catch data showed a shift in assemblage composition at reservoir sites corresponding to dominance by habitat generalist species. Richness of fluvial specialists averaged about 3 fewer species downstream from reservoirs, and also declined as permitted withdrawal rate increased above about 0.5 to one 7Q10-equivalent of water. Reservoir presence and withdrawal rate, along with drainage area, accounted for 70% of the among-site variance in fluvial specialist richness and were better predictor variables than percent of the catchment in urban land use or average streambed sediment size. Increasing withdrawal rate also increased the odds that a site?s Index of Biotic Integrity score fell below a regulatory threshold indicating biological impairment. Estimates of reservoir and withdrawal effects on stream biota could be used in predictive landscape models to support adaptive water supply planning intended to meet societal needs while conserving biological resources.

Flow-specific trends in river-water quality resulting from the effects of the Clean Air Act in three mesoscale, forested river basins in the northeastern United States through 2002.

PubMed

Murdoch, Peter S; Shanley, James B

2006-09-01

Two new methods for assessing temporal trends in stream-solute concentrations at specific streamflow ranges were applied to long (40 to 50-year) but sparse (bi-weekly to quarterly sampling) stream-water quality data collected at three forested mesoscale basins along an atmospheric deposition gradient in the northeastern United States (one in north-central Pennsylvania, one in southeastern New York, and one in eastern Maine). The three data sets span the period since the implementation of the Clean Air Act in 1970 and its subsequent amendments. Declining sulfate (O4(2-)) trends since the mid 1960s were identified for all 3 rivers by one or more of the 4 methods of trend detection used. Flow-specific trends were assessed by segmenting the data sets into 3-year and 6-year blocks, then determining concentration-discharge relationships for each block. Declining sulfate (O4(2-)) trends at median flow were similar to trends determined using a Seasonal Kendall Tau test and Sen slope estimator. The trend of declining O4(2-) concentrations differed at high, median and low flow since the mid 1980s at YWC and NR, and at high and low flow at WR, but the trends leveled or reversed at high flow from 1999 through 2002. Trends for the period of record at high flows were similar to medium- and low-flow trends for Ca2++ Mg2+ concentrations at WR, non-significant at YWC, and were more negative at low flow than at high flow at NR; trends in nitrate (NO3-), and alkalinity (ALK) concentrations were different at different flow conditions, and in ways that are consistent with the hydrology and deposition history at each watershed. Quarterly sampling is adequate for assessing average-flow trends in the chemical parameters assessed over long time periods (approximately decades). However, with even a modest effort at sampling a range of flow conditions within each year, trends at specified flows for constituents with strong concentration-discharge relationships can be evaluated and may allow early detection of ecosystem response to climate change and pollution management strategies.

Digital model of the Arikaree Aquifer near Wheatland, southeastern Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoxie, Dwight T.

1977-01-01

A digital model that mathematically simulates the flow of ground water, approximating the flow system as two-dimensional, has been applied to predict the long-term effects of irrigation and proposed industrial pumping from the unconfined Arikaree aquifer in a 400 square-mile area in southeastern Wyoming. Three cases that represent projected maximum, mean, and minimum combined irrigation and industrial ground-water withdrawals at annual rates of 16,176, 11,168, and 6,749 acre-feet, respectively, were considered. Water-level declines of more than 5 feet over areas of 124, 120, and 98 square miles and depletions in streamflow of 14.4, 8.9, and 7.2 cfs from the Laramie and North Laramie Rivers were predicted to occur at the end of a 40-year simulation period for these maximum, mean, and minimum withdrawal rates, respectively. A tenfold incrase in the vertical hydraulic conductivity that was assumed for the streambeds results in smaller predicted drawdowns near the Laramie and North Laramie Rivers and a 36 percent increase in the predicted depletion in streamflow for the North Laramie River. (Woodard-USGS)

No place like home: older adults and their housing.

PubMed

Fisher, Jonathan D; Johnson, David S; Marchand, Joseph T; Smeeding, Timothy M; Torrey, Barbara Boyle

2007-03-01

The home is both older Americans' largest asset and their largest consumption good. This article employs new data on the consumption and assets of older Americans to investigate what role the home plays in the economic lives of older adults. We used 20 years of data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey to examine the asset and consumption trends of four cohorts of older Americans. We compared the data with other survey results. Older Americans' homeownership rates were stable until age 80. The homes were increasingly mortgage free; home equity increased with age, and relatively few older adults took out home equity loans or reverse annuity mortgages. Housing consumption flows increased with age; nonhousing consumption flows declined after age 60 at a rate of approximately 1.4% per year. The results suggest that the consumption of cohorts of older Americans does not decrease dramatically over a 20-year period and that they are also not converting their housing assets into other types of income or consumption, at least up to age 80. A number of reasons, including the bequest motive and the life cycle hypothesis, might explain this behavior.

Analysis of factors influencing the development of xerostomia during intensity-modulated radiotherapy.

PubMed

Randall, Ken; Stevens, Jason; Yepes, Juan Fernando; Randall, Marcus E; Kudrimoti, Mahesh; Feddock, Jonathan; Xi, Jing; Kryscio, Richard J; Miller, Craig S

2013-06-01

Factors influencing xerostomia during intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) were assessed. A 6-week study of 32 head and neck cancer (HNC) patients was performed. Subjects completed the Xerostomia Inventory (XI) and provided stimulated saliva (SS) at baseline, week 2 and at end of IMRT. Influence of SS flow rate (SSFR), calcium and mucin 5b (MUC5b) concentrations and radiation dose on xerostomia was determined. HNC subjects experienced mean SSFR decline of 36% by visit 2 (N = 27; P = .012) and 57% by visit 3 (N = 20; P = .0004). Concentrations of calcium and MUC5b increased, but not significantly during IMRT (P > .05). Xerostomia correlated most with decreasing salivary flow rate as determined by Spearman correlations (P < .04) and linear mixed models (P < .0001). Although IMRT is sparing to the parotid glands, it has an early effect on SSFR and the constituents in saliva in a manner that is associated with the perception of xerostomia. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimal harvesting of fish stocks under a time-varying discount rate.

PubMed

Duncan, Stephen; Hepburn, Cameron; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

2011-01-21

Optimal control theory has been extensively used to determine the optimal harvesting policy for renewable resources such as fish stocks. In such optimisations, it is common to maximise the discounted utility of harvesting over time, employing a constant time discount rate. However, evidence from human and animal behaviour suggests that we have evolved to employ discount rates which fall over time, often referred to as "hyperbolic discounting". This increases the weight on benefits in the distant future, which may appear to provide greater protection of resources for future generations, but also creates challenges of time-inconsistent plans. This paper examines harvesting plans when the discount rate declines over time. With a declining discount rate, the planner reduces stock levels in the early stages (when the discount rate is high) and intends to compensate by allowing the stock level to recover later (when the discount rate will be lower). Such a plan may be feasible and optimal, provided that the planner remains committed throughout. However, in practice there is a danger that such plans will be re-optimized and adjusted in the future. It is shown that repeatedly restarting the optimization can drive the stock level down to the point where the optimal policy is to harvest the stock to extinction. In short, a key contribution of this paper is to identify the surprising severity of the consequences flowing from incorporating a rather trivial, and widely prevalent, "non-rational" aspect of human behaviour into renewable resource management models. These ideas are related to the collapse of the Peruvian anchovy fishery in the 1970's. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating regional-scale permeability-depth relations in a fractured-rock terrain using groundwater-flow model calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, Ward E.

2017-03-01

The trend of decreasing permeability with depth was estimated in the fractured-rock terrain of the upper Potomac River basin in the eastern USA using model calibration on 200 water-level observations in wells and 12 base-flow observations in subwatersheds. Results indicate that permeability at the 1-10 km scale (for groundwater flowpaths) decreases by several orders of magnitude within the top 100 m of land surface. This depth range represents the transition from the weathered, fractured regolith into unweathered bedrock. This rate of decline is substantially greater than has been observed by previous investigators that have plotted in situ wellbore measurements versus depth. The difference is that regional water levels give information on kilometer-scale connectivity of the regolith and adjacent fracture networks, whereas in situ measurements give information on near-hole fractures and fracture networks. The approach taken was to calibrate model layer-to-layer ratios of hydraulic conductivity (LLKs) for each major rock type. Most rock types gave optimal LLK values of 40-60, where each layer was twice a thick as the one overlying it. Previous estimates of permeability with depth from deeper data showed less of a decline at <300 m than the regional modeling results. There was less certainty in the modeling results deeper than 200 m and for certain rock types where fewer water-level observations were available. The results have implications for improved understanding of watershed-scale groundwater flow and transport, such as for the timing of the migration of pollutants from the water table to streams.

Estimating regional-scale permeability–depth relations in a fractured-rock terrain using groundwater-flow model calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, Ward E.

2017-01-01

The trend of decreasing permeability with depth was estimated in the fractured-rock terrain of the upper Potomac River basin in the eastern USA using model calibration on 200 water-level observations in wells and 12 base-flow observations in subwatersheds. Results indicate that permeability at the 1–10 km scale (for groundwater flowpaths) decreases by several orders of magnitude within the top 100 m of land surface. This depth range represents the transition from the weathered, fractured regolith into unweathered bedrock. This rate of decline is substantially greater than has been observed by previous investigators that have plotted in situ wellbore measurements versus depth. The difference is that regional water levels give information on kilometer-scale connectivity of the regolith and adjacent fracture networks, whereas in situ measurements give information on near-hole fractures and fracture networks. The approach taken was to calibrate model layer-to-layer ratios of hydraulic conductivity (LLKs) for each major rock type. Most rock types gave optimal LLK values of 40–60, where each layer was twice a thick as the one overlying it. Previous estimates of permeability with depth from deeper data showed less of a decline at <300 m than the regional modeling results. There was less certainty in the modeling results deeper than 200 m and for certain rock types where fewer water-level observations were available. The results have implications for improved understanding of watershed-scale groundwater flow and transport, such as for the timing of the migration of pollutants from the water table to streams.

Physical activity and motor decline in older persons.

PubMed

Buchman, A S; Boyle, P A; Wilson, R S; Bienias, Julia L; Bennett, D A

2007-03-01

We tested the hypothesis that physical activity modifies the course of age-related motor decline. More than 850 older participants of the Rush Memory and Aging Project underwent baseline assessment of physical activity and annual motor testing for up to 8 years. Nine strength measures and nine motor performance measures were summarized into composite measures of motor function. In generalized estimating equation models, global motor function declined during follow-up (estimate, -0.072; SE, 0.008; P < 0.001). Each additional hour of physical activity at baseline was associated with about a 5% decrease in the rate of global motor function decline (estimate, 0.004; SE, 0.001; P = 0.007). Secondary analyses suggested that the association of physical activity with motor decline was mostly due to the effect of physical activity on the rate of motor performance decline. Thus, higher levels of physical activity are associated with a slower rate of motor decline in older persons.

Migratory Patterns of Wild Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Returning to a Large, Free-Flowing River Basin

PubMed Central

Eiler, John H.; Evans, Allison N.; Schreck, Carl B.

2015-01-01

Upriver movements were determined for Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returning to the Yukon River, a large, virtually pristine river basin. These returns have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and information is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio tagged during 2002–2004. Most (97.5%) of the fish tracked upriver to spawning areas displayed continual upriver movements and strong fidelity to the terminal tributaries entered. Movement rates were substantially slower for fish spawning in lower river tributaries (28–40 km d-1) compared to upper basin stocks (52–62 km d-1). Three distinct migratory patterns were observed, including a gradual decline, pronounced decline, and substantial increase in movement rate as the fish moved upriver. Stocks destined for the same region exhibited similar migratory patterns. Individual fish within a stock showed substantial variation, but tended to reflect the regional pattern. Differences between consistently faster and slower fish explained 74% of the within-stock variation, whereas relative shifts in sequential movement rates between “hares” (faster fish becoming slower) and “tortoises” (slow but steady fish) explained 22% of the variation. Pulses of fish moving upriver were not cohesive. Fish tagged over a 4-day period took 16 days to pass a site 872 km upriver. Movement rates were substantially faster and the percentage of atypical movements considerably less than reported in more southerly drainages, but may reflect the pristine conditions within the Yukon River, wild origins of the fish, and discrete run timing of the returns. Movement data can provide numerous insights into the status and management of salmon returns, particularly in large river drainages with widely scattered fisheries where management actions in the lower river potentially impact harvests and escapement farther upstream. However, the substantial variation exhibited among individual fish within a stock can complicate these efforts. PMID:25919286

Migratory Patterns of Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Returning to a Large, Free-flowing River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eiler, John H.; Evans, Allison N.; Schreck, Carl B.

2015-01-01

Upriver movements were determined for Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returning to the Yukon River, a large, virtually pristine river basin. These returns have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and information is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio tagged during 2002–2004. Most (97.5%) of the fish tracked upriver to spawning areas displayed continual upriver movements and strong fidelity to the terminal tributaries entered. Movement rates were substantially slower for fish spawning in lower river tributaries (28–40 km d-1) compared to upper basin stocks (52–62 km d-1). Three distinct migratory patterns were observed, including a gradual decline, pronounced decline, and substantial increase in movement rate as the fish moved upriver. Stocks destined for the same region exhibited similar migratory patterns. Individual fish within a stock showed substantial variation, but tended to reflect the regional pattern. Differences between consistently faster and slower fish explained 74% of the within-stock variation, whereas relative shifts in sequential movement rates between “hares” (faster fish becoming slower) and “tortoises” (slow but steady fish) explained 22% of the variation. Pulses of fish moving upriver were not cohesive. Fish tagged over a 4-day period took 16 days to pass a site 872 km upriver. Movement rates were substantially faster and the percentage of atypical movements considerably less than reported in more southerly drainages, but may reflect the pristine conditions within the Yukon River, wild origins of the fish, and discrete run timing of the returns. Movement data can provide numerous insights into the status and management of salmon returns, particularly in large river drainages with widely scattered fisheries where management actions in the lower river potentially impact harvests and escapement farther upstream. However, the substantial variation exhibited among individual fish within a stock can complicate these efforts.

Analysis of 1997–2008 groundwater level changes in the upper Deschutes Basin, Central Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gannett, Marshall W.; Lite, Kenneth E.

2013-01-01

Groundwater-level monitoring in the upper Deschutes Basin of central Oregon from 1997 to 2008 shows water-level declines in some places that are larger than might be expected from climate variations alone, raising questions regarding the influence of groundwater pumping, canal lining (which decreases recharge), and other human influences. Between the mid-1990s and mid-2000s, water levels in the central part of the basin near Redmond steadily declined as much as 14 feet. Water levels in the Cascade Range, in contrast, rose more than 20 feet from the mid-1990s to about 2000, and then declined into the mid-2000s, with little or no net change. An existing U.S. Geological Survey regional groundwater-flow model was used to gain insights into groundwater-level changes from 1997 to 2008, and to determine the relative influence of climate, groundwater pumping, and irrigation canal lining on observed water-level trends. To utilize the model, input datasets had to be extended to include post-1997 changes in groundwater pumping, changes in recharge from precipitation, irrigation canal leakage, and deep percolation of applied irrigation water (also known as on-farm loss). Mean annual groundwater recharge from precipitation during the 1999–2008 period was 25 percent less than during the 1979–88 period because of drying climate conditions. This decrease in groundwater recharge is consistent with measured decreases in streamflow and discharge to springs. For example, the mean annual discharge of Fall River, which is a spring-fed stream, decreased 12 percent between the 1979–88 and 1999–2008 periods. Between the mid-1990s and late 2000s, groundwater pumping for public-supply and irrigation uses increased from about 32,500 to 52,000 acre-feet per year, partially because of population growth. Between 1997 and 2008, the rate of recharge from leaking irrigation canals decreased by about 58,000 acre-feet per year as a result of lining and piping of canals. Decreases in recharge from on-farm losses over the past decade were relatively small, approaching an estimated 1,000 acre-feet per year by the late 2000s. All these changes in the hydrologic budget contributed to declines in groundwater levels. Groundwater flow model simulations indicate that climate variations have the largest influence on groundwater levels throughout the upper Deschutes Basin, and that impacts from pumping and canal lining also contribute but are largely restricted to the central part of the basin that extends north from near Benham Falls to Lower Bridge, and east from Sisters to the community of Powell Butte. Outside of this central area, the water-level response from changes in pumping and irrigation canal leakage cannot be discerned from the larger response to climate-driven changes in recharge. Within this central area, where measured water-level declines have generally ranged from about 5 to 14 feet since the mid-1990s, climate variations are still the dominant factor influencing groundwater levels, accounting for approximately 60–70 percent of the measured declines. Post-1994 increases in groundwater pumping account for about 20–30 percent of the measured declines in the central part of the basin, depending on location, and decreases in recharge due to canal lining account for about 10 percent of the measured declines. Decreases in recharge from on-farm losses were simulated, but the effects were negligible compared to climate influences, groundwater pumping, and the effects of canal lining and piping. Observation well data and model simulation results indicate that water levels in the Cascade Range rose and declined tens of feet in response to wet and dry climate cycles over the past two decades. Water levels in the central part of the basin, in contrast, steadily declined during the same period, with the rate of decline lessening during wet periods. This difference is because the water-level response from recharge is damped as water moves (diffuses) from the principal recharge area in the Cascade Range to discharge points along the main stems of the Deschutes, Crooked, and Metolius Rivers in the central part of the basin. Water levels in the central part of the basin respond more to multi-decadal climate trends than shorter term changes. Groundwater-flow simulations show that the effects from increased pumping and decreased irrigation canal leakage extend south into the Bend area. However, the only wells presently monitored in the Bend area are heavily influenced by the Deschutes River, which dampens any response of water levels to external stresses such as groundwater pumping, changes in canal leakage, or climate variations.

California's Youth and Young Adult Arrest Rates Continue a Historic Decline. Fact Sheet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Males, Mike

2016-01-01

This Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice (CJCJ) fact sheet shows that, in 2015, arrests of young people under age 25 dropped below 2014 levels and continue a decades-long trend of decline. While the causes of these declines are unknown, falling youth arrests rates coupled with decreased youth incarceration suggest that high rates of…

Ecosystem ecology meets adaptive management: food web response to a controlled flood on the Colorado River, Glen Canyon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cross, Wyatt F.; Baxter, Colden V.; Donner, Kevin C.; Rosi-Marshall, Emma J.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Hall, Robert O.; Wellard Kelly, Holly A.; Rogers, R. Scott

2011-01-01

Large dams have been constructed on rivers to meet human demands for water, electricity, navigation, and recreation. As a consequence, flow and temperature regimes have been altered, strongly affecting river food webs and ecosystem processes. Experimental high-flow dam releases, i.e., controlled floods, have been implemented on the Colorado River, USA, in an effort to reestablish pulsed flood events, redistribute sediments, improve conditions for native fishes, and increase understanding of how dam operations affect physical and biological processes. We quantified secondary production and organic matter flows in the food web below Glen Canyon dam for two years prior and one year after an experimental controlled flood in March 2008. Invertebrate biomass and secondary production declined significantly following the flood (total biomass, 55% decline; total production, 56% decline), with most of the decline driven by reductions in two nonnative invertebrate taxa, Potamopyrgus antipodarum and Gammarus lacustris. Diatoms dominated the trophic basis of invertebrate production before and after the controlled flood, and the largest organic matter flows were from diatoms to the three most productive invertebrate taxa (P. antipodarum, G. lacustris, and Tubificida). In contrast to invertebrates, production of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) increased substantially (194%) following the flood, despite the large decline in total secondary production of the invertebrate assemblage. This counterintuitive result is reconciled by a post-flood increase in production and drift concentrations of select invertebrate prey (i.e., Chironomidae and Simuliidae) that supported a large proportion of trout production but had relatively low secondary production. In addition, interaction strengths, measured as species impact values, were strongest between rainbow trout and these two taxa before and after the flood, demonstrating that the dominant consumer—resource interactions were not necessarily congruent with the dominant organic matter flows. Our study illustrates the value of detailed food web analysis for elucidating pathways by which dam management may alter production and strengths of species interactions in river food webs. We suggest that controlled floods may increase production of nonnative rainbow trout, and this information can be used to help guide future dam management decisions.

Geographic and racial variation in teen pregnancy rates in Wisconsin.

PubMed

Layde, Molly M; Remington, Patrick L

2013-08-01

Despite recent declines in teen birth rates, teenage pregnancy remains an important public health problem in Wisconsin with significant social, economic, and health-related effects. Compare and contrast teen birth rate trends by race, ethnicity, and county in Wisconsin. Teen (ages 15-19 years) birth rates (per 1000 teenage females) in Wisconsin from 2001-2010 were compared by racelethnicity and county of residence using data from the Wisconsin Interactive Statistics on Health. Teen birth rates in Wisconsin have declined by 20% over the past decade, from 35.5/1000 teens in 2001 to 28.3/1000 teens in 2010-a relative decline of 20.3%. However, trends vary by race, with declines among blacks (-33%) and whites (-26%) and increases among American Indians (+21%) and Hispanics (+30%). Minority teen birth rates continue to be 3 to 5 times greater than birth rates among whites. Rates varied even more by county, with an over 14-fold difference between Ozaukee County (7.8/1000) and Menominee County (114.2). Despite recent declines, teen pregnancy continues to be an important public health problem in Wisconsin. Pregnancy prevention programs should be targeted toward the populations and counties with the highest rates.

Functional relationships between vegetation, channel morphology, and flow efficiency in an alluvial (anabranching) river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jansen, John D.; Nanson, Gerald C.

2010-12-01

Water and sediment flux interactions are examined in Magela Creek, an alluvial (anabranching) sand bed river in the northern Australian tropics. Dense riparian vegetation stabilizes the channels and floodplains thereby preventing erosional instability at flow depths up to 6.2 times bankfull and discharges up to 15 times bankfull. Narrow anabranching channels characterize >92% of the alluvial reach and transport bed load more efficiently than short reaches of wide single-channels, yet overall 29 ± 12% of the bed load is sequestered and the average vertical accretion rate is 0.41 ± 0.17 mm yr-1 along the 12 km study reach. The most effective discharge for transporting sediment (40-45 m3 s-1) is consistent at all 5 stations (10 channels) examined and is equivalent to the channel-forming discharge. It has an average recurrence interval of 1.01 years, occurs for an exceptionally long portion (13-15%) of the annual flow duration, and averages a remarkable 2.1 times bankfull. The high flow efficiency (i.e., bed load transport rate to stream power ratio) of the anabranches is facilitated by low width/depth channels with banks reinforced by vegetation. Colonnades of bank top trees confine high-velocity flows overbed (i.e., over the channel bed) at stages well above bankfull. At even larger overbank flows, momentum exchange between the channels and forested floodplains restrains overbed velocities, in some cases causing them to decline, thereby limiting erosion. Magela Creek exhibits a complicated set of planform, cross-sectional and vegetative adjustments that boost overbed velocities and enhance bed load yield in multiple channels while restraining velocities and erosion at the largest discharges.

State of newborn health in India.

PubMed

Sankar, M J; Neogi, S B; Sharma, J; Chauhan, M; Srivastava, R; Prabhakar, P K; Khera, A; Kumar, R; Zodpey, S; Paul, V K

2016-12-01

About 0.75 million neonates die every year in India, the highest for any country in the world. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined from 52 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 28 per 1000 live births in 2013, but the rate of decline has been slow and lags behind that of infant and under-five child mortality rates. The slower decline has led to increasing contribution of neonatal mortality to infant and under-five mortality. Among neonatal deaths, the rate of decline in early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) is much lower than that of late NMR. The high level and slow decline in early NMR are also reflected in a high and stagnant perinatal mortality rate. The rate of decline in NMR, and to an extent ENMR, has accelerated with the introduction of National Rural Health Mission in mid-2005. Almost all states have witnessed this phenomenon, but there is still a huge disparity in NMR between and even within the states. The disparity is further compounded by rural-urban, poor-rich and gender differentials. There is an interplay of different demographic, educational, socioeconomic, biological and care-seeking factors, which are responsible for the differentials and the high burden of neonatal mortality. Addressing inequity in India is an important cross-cutting action that will reduce newborn mortality.

State of newborn health in India

PubMed Central

Sankar, M J; Neogi, S B; Sharma, J; Chauhan, M; Srivastava, R; Prabhakar, P K; Khera, A; Kumar, R; Zodpey, S; Paul, V K

2016-01-01

About 0.75 million neonates die every year in India, the highest for any country in the world. The neonatal mortality rate (NMR) declined from 52 per 1000 live births in 1990 to 28 per 1000 live births in 2013, but the rate of decline has been slow and lags behind that of infant and under-five child mortality rates. The slower decline has led to increasing contribution of neonatal mortality to infant and under-five mortality. Among neonatal deaths, the rate of decline in early neonatal mortality rate (ENMR) is much lower than that of late NMR. The high level and slow decline in early NMR are also reflected in a high and stagnant perinatal mortality rate. The rate of decline in NMR, and to an extent ENMR, has accelerated with the introduction of National Rural Health Mission in mid-2005. Almost all states have witnessed this phenomenon, but there is still a huge disparity in NMR between and even within the states. The disparity is further compounded by rural–urban, poor–rich and gender differentials. There is an interplay of different demographic, educational, socioeconomic, biological and care-seeking factors, which are responsible for the differentials and the high burden of neonatal mortality. Addressing inequity in India is an important cross-cutting action that will reduce newborn mortality. PMID:27924104

Progress in reducing premature deaths in Wisconsin counties, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Nonnweiler, Thomas; Pollock, Elizabeth A; Rudolph, Barbara; Remington, Patrick L

2013-10-01

Measuring trends in a county's premature death rate is a straightforward method that can be used to assess a county's progress in improving the health of the population. Age-adjusted premature death rate data from Wisconsin Interactive Statistics on Health for persons less than 75 years of age were collected for the years 2000-2010. Overall 10-year percent change was calculated, compared, and ranked for all Wisconsin counties during this time period. Progress was assessed as excellent (25.0% or greater decline), very good (20.0%-24.9% decline), good (10.0%-19.9% decline), fair (0.0%-9.9% decline), or poor (any increase). Overall, premature death rates in counties declined by 16.8% over the 10-year period 2000-2010 in Wisconsin. Trends varied by county, with 8, 15, 37, 9, and 3 counties having excellent, very good, good, fair, and poor progress, respectively. The most improvement was seen in Kewaunee County (decreasing 38.3%) and the least progress in Lafayette County (increasing 4.8%). Trends in premature death rates were not related to the county's initial death rate, population, rurality, or income. Although premature death rates declined overall in Wisconsin during the 2000s, this progress varied across counties and was not related to baseline mortality rates or other county characteristics.

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of projected water use for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer, western and central Oklahoma

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellis, John H.; Mashburn, Shana L.; Graves, Grant M.; Peterson, Steven M.; Smith, S. Jerrod; Fuhrig, Leland T.; Wagner, Derrick L.; Sanford, Jon E.

2017-02-13

This report describes a study of the hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer in western and central Oklahoma conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Oklahoma Water Resources Board. The report (1) quantifies the groundwater resources of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer by developing a conceptual model, (2) summarizes the general water quality of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer groundwater by using data collected during August and September 2013, (3) evaluates the effects of estimated equal proportionate share (EPS) on aquifer storage and streamflow for time periods of 20, 40, and 50 years into the future by using numerical groundwater-flow models, and (4) evaluates the effects of present-day groundwater pumping over a 50-year period and sustained hypothetical drought conditions over a 10-year period on stream base flow and groundwater in storage by using numerical flow models. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer is a Quaternary-age alluvial and terrace unit consisting of beds of clay, silt, sand, and fine gravel sediments unconformably overlying Tertiary-, Permian-, and Pennsylvanian-age sedimentary rocks. For groundwater-flow modeling purposes, the Canadian River was divided into Reach I, extending from the Texas border to the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), and Reach II, extending downstream from the Canadian River at the Bridgeport, Okla., streamgage (07228500), to the confluence of the river with Eufaula Lake. The Canadian River alluvial aquifer spans multiple climate divisions, ranging from semiarid in the west to humid subtropical in the east. The average annual precipitation in the study area from 1896 to 2014 was 34.4 inches per year (in/yr).A hydrogeologic framework of the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was developed that includes the areal and vertical extent of the aquifer and the distribution, texture variability, and hydraulic properties of aquifer materials. The aquifer areal extent ranged from less than 0.2 to 8.5 miles wide. The maximum aquifer thickness was 120 feet (ft), and the average aquifer thickness was 50 ft. Average horizontal hydraulic conductivity for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was calculated to be 39 feet per day, and the maximum horizontal hydraulic conductivity was calculated to be 100 feet per day.Recharge rates to the Canadian River alluvial aquifer were estimated by using a soil-water-balance code to estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater recharge and a water-table fluctuation method to estimate localized recharge rates. By using daily precipitation and temperature data from 39 climate stations, recharge was estimated to average 3.4 in/yr, which corresponds to 8.7 percent of precipitation as recharge for the Canadian River alluvial aquifer from 1981 to 2013. The water-table fluctuation method was used at one site where continuous water-level observation data were available to estimate the percentage of precipitation that becomes groundwater recharge. Estimated annual recharge at that site was 9.7 in/yr during 2014.Groundwater flow in the Canadian River alluvial aquifer was identified and quantified by a conceptual flow model for the period 1981–2013. Inflows to the Canadian River alluvial aquifer include recharge to the water table from precipitation, lateral flow from the surrounding bedrock, and flow from the Canadian River, whereas outflows include flow to the Canadian River (base-flow gain), evapotranspiration, and groundwater use. Total annual recharge inflows estimated by the soil-water-balance code were multiplied by the area of each reach and then averaged over the simulated period to produce an annual average of 28,919 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) for Reach I and 82,006 acre-ft/yr for Reach II. Stream base flow to the Canadian River was estimated to be the largest outflow of groundwater from the aquifer, measured at four streamgages, along with evapotranspiration and groundwater use, which were relatively minor discharge components.Objectives for the numerical groundwater-flow models included simulating groundwater flow in the Canadian River alluvial aquifer from 1981 to 2013 to address groundwater use and drought scenarios, including calculation of the EPS pumping rates. The EPS for the alluvial and terrace aquifers is defined by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board as the amount of fresh water that each landowner is allowed per year per acre of owned land to maintain a saturated thickness of at least 5 ft in at least 50 percent of the overlying land of the groundwater basin for a minimum of 20 years.The groundwater-flow models were calibrated to water-table altitude observations, streamgage base flows, and base-flow gain to the Canadian River. The Reach I water-table altitude observation root-mean-square error was 6.1 ft, and 75 percent of residuals were within ±6.7 ft of observed measurements. The average simulated stream base-flow residual at the Bridgeport streamgage (07228500) was 8.8 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), and 75 percent of residuals were within ±30 ft3/s of observed measurements. Simulated base-flow gain in Reach I was 8.8 ft3/s lower than estimated base-flow gain. The Reach II water-table altitude observation root-mean-square error was 4 ft, and 75 percent of residuals were within ±4.3 ft of the observations. The average simulated stream base-flow residual in Reach II was between 35 and 132 ft3/s. The average simulated base-flow gain residual in Reach II was between 11.3 and 61.1 ft3/s.Several future predictive scenarios were run, including estimating the EPS pumping rate for 20-, 40-, and 50-year life of basin scenarios, determining the effects of current groundwater use over a 50-year period into the future, and evaluating the effects of a sustained drought on water availability for both reaches. The EPS pumping rate was determined to be 1.35 acre-feet per acre per year ([acre-ft/acre]/yr) in Reach I and 3.08 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II for a 20-year period. For the 40- and 50-year periods, the EPS rate was determined to be 1.34 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach I and 3.08 (acre-ft/acre)/yr in Reach II. Storage changes decreased in tandem with simulated groundwater pumping and were minimal after the first 15 simulated years for Reach I and the first 8 simulated years for Reach II.Groundwater pumping at year 2013 rates for a period of 50 years resulted in a 0.2-percent decrease in groundwater-storage volumes in Reach I and a 0.6-percent decrease in the groundwater-storage volumes in Reach II. The small changes in storage are due to groundwater use by pumping, which composes a small percentage of the total groundwater-flow model budgets for Reaches I and II.A sustained drought scenario was used to evaluate the effects of a hypothetical 10-year drought on water availability. A 10-year period was chosen where the effects of drought conditions would be simulated by decreasing recharge by 75 percent. In Reach I, average simulated stream base flow at the Bridgeport streamgage (07228500) decreased by 58 percent during the hypothetical 10-year drought compared to average simulated stream base flow during the nondrought period. In Reach II, average simulated stream base flows at the Purcell streamgage (07229200) and Calvin streamgage (07231500) decreased by 64 percent and 54 percent, respectively. In Reach I, the groundwater-storage drought scenario resulted in a storage decline of 30 thousand acre-feet, or an average decline in the water table of 1.2 ft. In Reach II, the groundwater-storage drought scenario resulted in a storage decline of 71 thousand acre-feet, or an average decline in the water table of 2.0 ft.

Nutrient recovery from the dry grind process using sequential micro and ultrafiltration of thin stillage.

PubMed

Arora, Amit; Dien, Bruce S; Belyea, Ronald L; Singh, Vijay; Tumbleson, M E; Rausch, Kent D

2010-06-01

The effectiveness of microfiltration (MF) and ultrafiltration (UF) for nutrient recovery from a thin stillage stream was determined. When a stainless steel MF membrane (0.1microm pore size) was used, the content of solids increased from 7.0% to 22.8% with a mean permeate flux rate of 45L/m(2)/h (LMH), fat increased and ash content decreased. UF experiments were conducted in batch mode under constant temperature and flow rate conditions. Permeate flux profiles were evaluated for regenerated cellulose membranes (YM1, YM10 and YM100) with molecular weight cut offs of 1, 10 and 100kDa. UF increased total solids, protein and fat and decreased ash in retentate stream. When permeate streams from MF were subjected to UF, retentate total solids concentrations similar to those of commercial syrup (23-28.8%) were obtained. YM100 had the highest percent permeate flux decline (70% of initial flux) followed by YM10 and YM1 membranes. Sequential filtration improved permeate flux rates of the YM100 membrane (32.6-73.4LMH) but the percent decline was also highest in a sequential MF+YM100 system. Protein recovery was the highest in YM1 retentate. Removal of solids, protein and fat from thin stillage may generate a permeate stream that may improve water removal efficiency and increase water recycling. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ground-water resources and potential hydrologic effects of surface coal mining in the northern Powder River basin, southeastern Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slagle, Steven E.; Lewis, Barney D.; Lee, Roger W.

1985-01-01

The shallow ground-water system in the northern Powder River Basin consists of Upper Cretaceous to Holocene aquifers overlying the Bearpaw Shale--namely, the Fox Hills Sandstone; Hell Creek, Fort Union, and Wasatch Formations; terrace deposits; and alluvium. Ground-water flow above the Bearpaw Shale can be divided into two general flow patterns. An upper flow pattern occurs in aquifers at depths of less than about 200 feet and occurs primarily as localized flow controlled by the surface topography. A lower flow pattern occurs in aquifers at depths from about 200 to 1,200 feet and exhibits a more regional flow, which is generally northward toward the Yellowstone River with significant flow toward the Powder and Tongue Rivers. The chemical quality of water in the shallow ground-water system in the study area varies widely, and most of the ground water does not meet standards for dissolved constituents in public drinking water established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Water from depths less than 200 feet generally is a sodium sulfate type having an average dissolved-solids concentration of 2,100 milligrams per liter. Sodium bicarbonate water having an average dissolved-solids concentration of 1,400 milligrams per liter is typical from aquifers in the shallow ground-water system at depths between 200 and 1,200 feet. Effects of surface coal mining on the water resources in the northern Powder River Basin are dependent on the stratigraphic location of the mine cut. Where the cut lies above the water-yielding zone, the effects will be minimal. Where the mine cut intersects a water-ielding zone, effects on water levels and flow patterns can be significant locally, but water levels and flow patterns will return to approximate premining conditions after mining ceases. Ground water in and near active and former mines may become more mineralized, owing to the placement of spoil material from the reducing zone in the unsaturated zone where the minerals are subject to oxidation. Regional effects probably will be small because of the limited areal extent of ground-water flow systems where mining is feasible. Results of digital models are presented to illustrate the effects of varying hydraulic properties on water-level changes resulting from mine dewatering. The model simulations were designed to depict maximum-drawdown situations. One simulation indicates that after 20 years of continuous dewatering of an infinite, homogeneous, isotropic aquifer that is 10 feet thick and has an initial potentiometric surface 10 feet above the top of the aquifer, water-level declines greater than 1 foot would generally be limited to within 7.5 miles of the center of the mine excavation; declines greater than 2 feet to within about 6 miles; declines greater than 5 feet to within about 3.7 miles; declines greater than 10 feet to within about 1.7 miles; and declines greater than 15 feet to within 1.2 miles.

Effect of two mouthwashes on salivary ph.

PubMed

Belardinelli, Paola A; Morelatto, Rosana A; Benavidez, Tomás E; Baruzzi, Ana M; López de Blanc, Silvia A

2014-01-01

To analyze the effect of two mouthwashes on salivary pH and correlate it with age, buffer capacity and saliva flow rate in healthy volunteers, a crossover phase IV clinical study involving three age-based groups was designed. Two commercial mouthwashes (MW), Cool Mint ListerineR (MWa) and Periobacter R (MWb) were used. The unstimulated saliva of each individual was first characterized by measuring flow rate, pH, and buffer capacity. Salivary pH was evaluated before rinsing with a given MW, immediately after rinsing, 5 minutes later, and then every 10 min (at 15, 25, 35 min) until the baseline pH was recovered. Paired t-test, ANOVA with a randomized block design, and Pearson correlation tests were used. Averages were 0.63 mL/min, 7.06, and 0.87 for flow rate, pH, and buffer capacity, respectively. An immediate significant increase in salivary pH was observed after rinsing, reaching average values of 7.24 (MWb) and 7.30 (MWa), which declined to an almost stable value 15 minutes. The great increase in salivary pH, after MW use shows that saliva is a dynamic system, and that the organism is capable of responding to a stimulus with changes in its composition. It is thus evident that pH of the external agent alone is not a good indicator for its erosive potential because biological systems tend to neutralize it. The results of this study enhance the importance of in vivo measurements and reinforce the concept of the protective action of saliva.

Electrochemically-induced reduction of nitrate in aqueous solution

PubMed Central

Rajic, Lj.; Berroa, D.; Gregor, S.; Elbakri, S.; MacNeil, M.; Alshawabkeh, A.N.

2018-01-01

In this study, we evaluated the removal of nitrate from synthetic groundwater by a cathode followed by an anode electrode sequence in the electrochemical flow-through reactor. We also tested the feasibility of the used electrode sequence to minimize the production of ammonia during the nitrate reduction. The performance of monometallic Fe, Cu, Ni and carbon foam cathodes was tested under different current intensities, flow rates/regimes and the presence of Pd and Ag catalyst coating. With the use of monometallic Fe and an increase in current intensity from 60 mA to 120 mA, the nitrate removal rate increased from 7.6% to 25.0%, but values above 120 mA caused a decrease in removal due to excessive gas formation at the electrodes. Among tested materials, monometallic Fe foam cathode showed the highest nitrates removal rate and increased significantly in the presence of Pd catalyst: from 25.0% to 39.8%. Further, the circulation under 3 mL min−1 elevated the nitrate removal by 33% and the final nitrate concentration fell below the maximum contaminant level of 10 mg L−1 nitrate–nitrogen (NO3-N). During the treatment, the yield of ammonia production after the cathode was 92±4% while after the anode (Ti/IrO2/Ta2O5), the amount of ammonia significantly declined to 50%. The results proved that flow-through, undivided electrochemical systems can be used to remove nitrate from groundwater with the possibility of simultaneously controlling the generation of ammonia. PMID:29657554

Arbuscular Mycorrhiza Alleviates Restrictions to Substrate Water Flow and Delays Transpiration Limitation to Stronger Drought in Tomato.

PubMed

Bitterlich, Michael; Sandmann, Martin; Graefe, Jan

2018-01-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) proliferate in soil pores, on the surface of soil particles and affect soil structure. Although modifications in substrate moisture retention depend on structure and could influence plant water extraction, mycorrhizal impacts on water retention and hydraulic conductivity were rarely quantified. Hence, we asked whether inoculation with AMF affects substrate water retention, water transport properties and at which drought intensity those factors become limiting for plant transpiration. Solanum lycopersicum plants were set up in the glasshouse, inoculated or not with Funneliformis mosseae , and grown for 35 days under ample water supply. After mycorrhizal establishment, we harvested three sets of plants, one before (36 days after inoculation) and the second (day 42) and third (day 47) within a sequential drying episode. Sampling cores were introduced into pots before planting. After harvest, moisture retention and substrate conductivity properties were assessed and water retention and hydraulic conductivity models were fitted. A root water uptake model was adopted in order to identify the critical substrate moisture that induces soil derived transpiration limitation. Neither substrate porosity nor saturated water contents were affected by inoculation, but both declined after substrates dried. Drying also caused a decline in pot water capacity and hydraulic conductivity. Plant available water contents under wet (pF 1.8-4.2) and dry (pF 2.5-4.2) conditions increased in mycorrhizal substrates and were conserved after drying. Substrate hydraulic conductivity was higher in mycorrhizal pots before and during drought exposure. After withholding water from pots, higher substrate drying rates and lower substrate water potentials were found in mycorrhizal substrates. Mycorrhiza neither affected leaf area nor root weight or length. Consistently with higher substrate drying rates, AMF restored the plant hydraulic status, and increased plant transpiration when soil moisture declined. The water potential at the root surface and the resistance to water flow in the rhizosphere were restored in mycorrhizal pots although the bulk substrate dried more. Finally, substrates colonized by AMF can be more desiccated before substrate water flux quantitatively limits transpiration. This is most pronounced under high transpiration demands and complies with a difference of over 1,000 hPa in substrate water potential.

Co-evolution of Riparian Vegetation and Channel Dynamics in an Aggrading Braided River System, Mount Pinatubo, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gran, K. B.; Michal, T.

2014-12-01

Increased bank stability by riparian vegetation in braided rivers can decrease bed reworking rates and focus the flow. The magnitude of influence and resulting channel morphology are functions of vegetation strength vs. channel dynamics, a concept encapsulated in a dimensionless ratio between timescales for vegetation growth and channel reworking known as T*. We investigate this relationship in an aggrading braided river at Mount Pinatubo, Philippines, and compare results to numerical and physical models. Gradual reductions in post-eruption sediment loads have reduced bed reworking rates, allowing vegetation to persist year-round and impact channel dynamics on the Pasig-Potrero and Sacobia Rivers. From 2009-2011, we collected data detailing vegetation extent, type, density, and root strength. Incorporating these data into RipRoot and BSTEM models shows cohesion due to roots increased from zero in unvegetated conditions to >10.2 kPa in densely-growing grasses. Field-based parameters were incorporated into a cellular model comparing vegetation growth and sediment mobility effects on braided channel dynamics. The model shows that both low sediment mobility and high vegetation strength lead to less active systems, reflecting trends observed in the field. An estimated T* between 0.8 - 2.3 for the Pasig-Potrero River suggests channels were mobile enough to maintain the braidplain width clear of vegetation and even experience slight gains in area through annual removal of existing vegetation. However, persistent vegetation focused flow and thus aggradation over the unvegetated fraction of braidplain, leading to an aggradational imbalance and transition to a more avulsive state. While physical models predict continued narrowing of the active braidplain as T* declines, the future trajectory of channel-vegetation interactions at Pinatubo as sedimentation rates decline appears more complicated due to strong seasonal variability in precipitation and sediment loads. By 2011, seasonal incision in the dry season had started to occur, lowering the water-table, and impeding vegetation growth.

Trends in death rates among U.S. adults with and without diabetes between 1997 and 2006: findings from the National Health Interview Survey.

PubMed

Gregg, Edward W; Cheng, Yiling J; Saydah, Sharon; Cowie, Catherine; Garfield, Sanford; Geiss, Linda; Barker, Lawrence

2012-06-01

To determine whether all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) death rates declined between 1997 and 2006, a period of continued advances in treatment approaches and risk factor control, among U.S. adults with and without diabetes. We compared 3-year death rates of four consecutive nationally representative samples (1997-1998, 1999-2000, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004) of U.S. adults aged 18 years and older using data from the National Health Interview Surveys linked to National Death Index. Among diabetic adults, the CVD death rate declined by 40% (95% CI 23-54) and all-cause mortality declined by 23% (10-35) between the earliest and latest samples. There was no difference in the rates of decline in mortality between diabetic men and women. The excess CVD mortality rate associated with diabetes (i.e., compared with nondiabetic adults) decreased by 60% (from 5.8 to 2.3 CVD deaths per 1,000) while the excess all-cause mortality rate declined by 44% (from 10.8 to 6.1 deaths per 1,000). Death rates among both U.S. men and women with diabetes declined substantially between 1997 and 2006, reducing the absolute difference between adults with and without diabetes. These encouraging findings, however, suggest that diabetes prevalence is likely to rise in the future if diabetes incidence is not curtailed.

Recovery from chronic and snowmelt acidification: Long-term trends in stream and soil water chemistry at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuss, Colin B.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Campbell, John L.

2015-11-01

Atmospheric acid deposition of sulfate and nitrate has declined markedly in the northeastern United States due to emissions controls. We investigated long-term trends in soil water (1984-2011) and stream water (1982-2011) chemistry along an elevation gradient of a forested watershed to evaluate the progress of recovery of drainage waters from acidic deposition at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, USA. We found slowed losses of base cations from soil and decreased mobilization of dissolved inorganic aluminum. Stream water pH at the watershed outlet increased at a rate of 0.01 units yr-1, and the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) gained 0.88 µeq L-1 yr-1. Dissolved organic carbon generally decreased in stream water and soil solutions, contrary to trends observed at many North American and European sites. We compared whole-year hydrochemical trends with those during snowmelt, which is the highest-flow and lowest ANC period of the year, indicative of episodic acidification. Stream water during snowmelt had long-term trends of increasing ANC and pH at a rate very similar to the whole-year record, with closely related steady decreases in sulfate. A more rapid decline in stream water nitrate during snowmelt compared with the whole-year trend may be due, in part, to the marked decrease in atmospheric nitrate deposition during the last decade. The similarity between the whole-year trends and those of the snowmelt period is an important finding that demonstrates a consistency between recovery from chronic acidification during base flow and abatement of snowmelt acidification.

Forecasting production in Liquid Rich Shale plays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikfarman, Hanieh

Production from Liquid Rich Shale (LRS) reservoirs is taking center stage in the exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs. Production from the low and ultra-low permeability LRS plays is possible only through multi-fractured horizontal wells (MFHW's). There is no existing workflow that is applicable to forecasting multi-phase production from MFHW's in LRS plays. This project presents a practical and rigorous workflow for forecasting multiphase production from MFHW's in LRS reservoirs. There has been much effort in developing workflows and methodology for forecasting in tight/shale plays in recent years. The existing workflows, however, are applicable only to single phase flow, and are primarily used in shale gas plays. These methodologies do not apply to the multi-phase flow that is inevitable in LRS plays. To account for complexities of multiphase flow in MFHW's the only available technique is dynamic modeling in compositional numerical simulators. These are time consuming and not practical when it comes to forecasting production and estimating reserves for a large number of producers. A workflow was developed, and validated by compositional numerical simulation. The workflow honors physics of flow, and is sufficiently accurate while practical so that an analyst can readily apply it to forecast production and estimate reserves in a large number of producers in a short period of time. To simplify the complex multiphase flow in MFHW, the workflow divides production periods into an initial period where large production and pressure declines are expected, and the subsequent period where production decline may converge into a common trend for a number of producers across an area of interest in the field. Initial period assumes the production is dominated by single-phase flow of oil and uses the tri-linear flow model of Erdal Ozkan to estimate the production history. Commercial software readily available can simulate flow and forecast production in this period. In the subsequent Period, dimensionless rate and dimensionless time functions are introduced that help identify transition from initial period into subsequent period. The production trends in terms of the dimensionless parameters converge for a range of rock permeability and stimulation intensity. This helps forecast production beyond transition to the end of life of well. This workflow is applicable to single fluid system.

Freshwater Ecosystem Services and Hydrologic Alteration in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasarer, L.; Taylor, J.; Rigby, J.; Locke, M. A.

2017-12-01

Flowing freshwater ecosystems provide a variety of essential ecosystem services including: consumptive water for domestic, industrial, and agricultural use; transportation of goods; maintenance of aquatic biodiversity and water quality; and recreation. However, freshwater ecosystem services can oftentimes be at odds with each other. For example, the over-consumption of water for agricultural production or domestic use may alter hydrologic patterns and diminish the ability of flowing waters to sustain healthy aquatic ecosystems. In the Lower Mississippi River Basin there has been a substantial increase in groundwater-irrigated cropland acreage over the past several decades and subsequent declines in regional aquifer levels. Changes in aquifer levels potentially impact surface water hydrology throughout the region. This study tests the hypothesis that flowing water systems in lowland agricultural watersheds within the Lower Mississippi River Basin have greater hydrologic alteration compared to upland non-agricultural watersheds, particularly with declines in base flow and an increase in extreme low flows. Long-term streamflow records from USGS gauges located in predominantly agricultural and non-agricultural watersheds in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee were evaluated from 1969 -2016 using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) software. Preliminary results from 8 non-agricultural and 5 agricultural watersheds demonstrate a substantial decline in base flow in the agricultural watersheds, which is not apparent in the non-agricultural watersheds. This exploratory study will analyze the trade-off between gains in agricultural productivity and changes in ecohydrological indicators over the last half century in diverse watersheds across the Lower Mississippi River Basin. By quantifying the changes in ecosystem services provided by flowing waters in the past, we can inform sustainable management pathways to better balance services in the future.

Declining Admission Rates And Thirty-Day Readmission Rates Positively Associated Even Though Patients Grew Sicker Over Time.

PubMed

Dharmarajan, Kumar; Qin, Li; Lin, Zhenqiu; Horwitz, Leora I; Ross, Joseph S; Drye, Elizabeth E; Keshawarz, Amena; Altaf, Faseeha; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Krumholz, Harlan M; Bernheim, Susannah M

2016-07-01

Programs from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services simultaneously promote strategies to lower hospital admissions and readmissions. However, there is concern that hospitals in communities that successfully reduce admissions may be penalized, as patients that are ultimately hospitalized may be sicker and at higher risk of readmission. We therefore examined the relationship between changes from 2010 to 2013 in admission rates and thirty-day readmission rates for elderly Medicare beneficiaries. We found that communities with the greatest decline in admission rates also had the greatest decline in thirty-day readmission rates, even though hospitalized patients did grow sicker as admission rates declined. The relationship between changing admission and readmission rates persisted in models that measured observed readmission rates, risk-standardized readmission rates, and the combined rate of readmission and death. Our findings suggest that communities can reduce admission rates and readmission rates in parallel, and that federal policy incentivizing reductions in both outcomes does not create contradictory incentives. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

A decomposition analysis of recent fertility decline in Fiji.

PubMed

Gubhaju, B; Shahidullah, M

1990-12-01

Over the period 1966-86, both the Fijian and Indian populations of Fiji demonstrated declines in fertility. Differentials in the decline were, however, noted with the total fertility rate (TFR) of the Fijian population declining by 26% over the period compared to a 50% decline in the Indian TFR. Moreover, rate declines were not smooth and consistent over the period. Faster fertility decline was experienced in the 1st decade for both groups, slowing in the 2nd decade for Indian women, and stabilizing among the Fijians. This paper decomposes these differential changes in fertility rate into marital structure and marital fertility. The study was conducted using data from the censuses of 1966, 1976, and 1986. For the period 1966-76, declines in marital fertility contributed most to overall TFR decline for both ethnic groups. Marital structure had a reducing effect upon TFR among Indian women in the 1st decaed, but not during the 2nd. Fijian women experienced an overall negative impact from marital structure. Contraception plays an important role in limiting fertility in these 2 populations. Accordingly, differentials in acceptance were noticed, the family planning acceptance rate for Indians being almost twice that of Fijians; 35.6% and 18.7%, respectively in 1986. Compared to Indian women, Fijian women were more literate, more economically active, had higher life expectancies, and experience lower infant mortality rates. Nonetheless, they are not motivated to use family planning. Motivational, cultural, religious, and behavioral factors are suggested as causal factors determining acceptance and use of modern contraceptive methods.

Cardiopulmonary capacities of Malaysian females.

PubMed

Singh, R; Singh, H J; Sirisinghe, R G

1995-04-01

Aerobic capacity (VO2max) and lung capacities were measured in 66 healthy females ranging in age from 13 to 49 years. Forced vital capacity (FVC) and peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) were measured using a dry spirometer and Wrights peak flow meter respectively. Cardiopulmonary parameters were obtained from a progressive ergocycle test to exhaustion. Mean FVC and PEFR obtained were 2.73 +/- 0.07 L and 412 +/- 8.5 L/min respectively. FVC correlated negatively with age in subjects from the 3rd to 5th decade of age (r = 0.38, p < 0.05). Mean VO2max was 43.2 +/- 0.9 ml/kg/min in the 2nd decade compared to 30.3 +/- 0.7 ml/kg/min in the fifth decade. Regression analysis revealed an age related decline in VO2max of 0.45 +/- 0.8 ml/kg/min/year, which was found to be somewhat higher compared to other studies.

Emplacement of Pahoehoe Toe Networks: Observations of May, 2010 Tube-fed Flows at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crown, D. A.; Ramsey, M.; Hon, K.

2010-12-01

Pahoehoe lava flows are compound features that consist of multiple overlapping and interfingering lobes and exhibit morphologically diverse surfaces characterized by channelized zones, smooth-surfaced sheets, and numerous, small toe networks. Previous work compiled detailed planform maps of solidified pahoehoe toe networks to document their morphology, morphometry and connective relationships in order to provide constraints on lava transport models. In order to expand this research to active flow emplacement, we observed slow-moving, tube-fed pahoehoe flows on the coastal plain near Kalapana, Hawaii in May, 2010. The evolution of pahoehoe toe and toe network characteristics over their emplacement history was examined and the role of small-scale flow inflation on the advance of pahoehoe lobes evaluated. We collected both visible video footage and high-speed, high-precision thermal infrared (TIR) data using a FLIR S-40 camera. The TIR data provide surface temperature maps that can be easily used to identify formation of new toes and track their growth and surface cooling. From these maps, lobe development, connective relationships, and frontal and lateral spreading rates can be analyzed. Preliminary results suggest that regular cycles of activity characterize the development of these pahoehoe lobes: 1) emplacement of new toes in local topographic lows at the front, margin, and within the interior of an active lobe forming small interconnected networks, 2) decline and sometimes temporary cessation in the production of new pahoehoe toes, 3) inflation of the recently emplaced flow surface, either partially or en masse depending on the rate of influx of new lava, the degree of irregularity of the pre-flow surface, and/or the slope across the recently emplaced lava surface, and 4) fracturing of the recently emplaced surface crust that feeds emplacement of new toes. Inflation fractures typically cut across several previously emplaced toes and can occur at the front, along the margins, or within the active lobe, even at significant distances behind the flow front.

The effects of experimentally induced hyperthyroidism on the diving physiology of harbor seals (Phoca vitulina)

PubMed Central

Weingartner, Gundula M.; Thornton, Sheila J.; Andrews, Russel D.; Enstipp, Manfred R.; Barts, Agnieszka D.; Hochachka, Peter W.

2012-01-01

Many phocid seals are expert divers that remain submerged longer than expected based on estimates of oxygen storage and utilization. This discrepancy is most likely due to an overestimation of diving metabolic rate. During diving, a selective redistribution of blood flow occurs, which may result in reduced metabolism in the hypoperfused tissues and a possible decline in whole-body metabolism to below the resting level (hypometabolism). Thyroid hormones are crucial in regulation of energy metabolism in vertebrates and therefore their control might be an important part of achieving a hypometabolic state during diving. To investigate the effect of thyroid hormones on diving physiology of phocid seals, we measured oxygen consumption, heart rate, and post-dive lactate concentrations in five harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) conducting 5 min dives on command, in both euthyroid and experimentally induced hyperthyroid states. Oxygen consumption during diving was significantly reduced (by 25%) in both euthyroid and hyperthyroid states, confirming that metabolic rate during diving falls below resting levels. Hyperthyroidism increased oxygen consumption (by 7–8%) when resting in water and during diving, compared with the euthyroid state, illustrating the marked effect of thyroid hormones on metabolic rate. Consequently, post-dive lactate concentrations were significantly increased in the hyperthyroid state, suggesting that the greater oxygen consumption rates forced seals to make increased use of anaerobic metabolic pathways. During diving, hyperthyroid seals also exhibited a more profound decline in heart rate than seals in the euthyroid state, indicating that these seals were pushed toward their aerobic limit and required a more pronounced cardiovascular response. Our results demonstrate the powerful role of thyroid hormones in metabolic regulation and support the hypothesis that thyroid hormones play a role in modulating the at-sea metabolism of phocid seals. PMID:23060807

Observed decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation 2004 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunningham, Stuart; Smeed, David; Johns, William; Meinen, Chris; Rayner, Darren; Moat, Ben; Duchez, Aurelie; Bryden, Harry; Baringer Molly, O.; McCarthy, Gerard

2014-05-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been observed continuously at 26° N since April 2004. The AMOC and its component parts are monitored by combining a transatlantic array of moored instruments with submarine-cable based measurements of the Gulf Stream and satellite derived Ekman transport. The time series has recently been extended to October 2012 and the results show a downward trend since 2004. From April~2008 to March 2012 the AMOC was an average of 2.7 Sv weaker than in the first four years of observation (95% confidence that the reduction is 0.3 Sv or more). Ekman transport reduced by about 0.2 Sv and the Gulf Stream by 0.5 Sv but most of the change (2.0 Sv) is due to the mid-ocean geostrophic flow. The change of the mid-ocean geostrophic flow represents a strengthening of the subtropical gyre above the thermocline. The increased southward flow of warm waters is balanced by a decrease in the southward flow of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water below 3000 m. The transport of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water slowed by 7% per year (95% confidence that the rate of slowing is greater than 2.5% per year).

Change in motor function and adverse health outcomes in older African-Americans.

PubMed

Buchman, Aron S; Wilson, Robert S; Leurgans, Sue E; Bennett, David A; Barnes, Lisa L

2015-10-01

We tested whether declining motor function accelerates with age in older African-Americans. Eleven motor performances were assessed annually in 513 older African-Americans. During follow-up of 5 years, linear mixed-effect models showed that motor function declined by about 0.03 units/year (Estimate, -0.026, p<0.001); about 4% more rapidly for each additional year of age at baseline. A proportional hazard model showed that both baseline motor function level and its rate of change were independent predictors of death and incident disability (all p's<0.001). These models showed that the additional annual amount of motor decline in 85 year old persons at baseline versus 65 year old persons was associated with a 1.5-fold higher rate of death and a 3-fold higher rate of developing Katz disability. The rate of declining motor function accelerates with increasing age and its rate of decline predicts adverse health outcomes in older African-Americans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Change in Motor Function and Adverse Health Outcomes in Older African Americas

PubMed Central

Buchman, Aron S.; Wilson, Robert S.; Leurgans, Sue E.; Bennett, David A.; Barnes, Lisa L.

2015-01-01

Objective We tested whether declining motor function accelerates with age in older African Americans. Methods Eleven motor performances were assessed annually in 513 older African Americans. Results During follow-up of 5 years, linear mixed-effect models showed that motor function declined by about 0.03 units/yr (Estimate, −0.026, p<0.001); about 4% more rapidly for each additional year of age at baseline. A proportional hazard model showed that both baseline motor function level and its rate of change were independent predictors of death and incident disability (all p’s <0.001). These models showed that the additional annual amount of motor decline in 85 year old persons at baseline versus 65 year old persons was associated with a 1.5-fold higher rate of death and a 3-fold higher rate of developing Katz disability. Conclusions The rate of declining motor function accelerates with increasing age and its rate of decline predicts adverse health outcomes in older African Americans. PMID:26209439

Epidemiologic trends in the evaluation and treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms in elderly male Medicare patients from 1991 to 1995.

PubMed

Baine, W B; Yu, W; Summe, J P; Weis, K A

1998-09-01

We describe utilization of procedures to reveal recent epidemiologic trends in evaluation and management of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). Medicare claims data reflect clinical practice in the vast majority of elderly Americans. The standard 5% beneficiary sample from Medicare claims files for 1991 to 1995 was searched to identify men 65 years old or older with invoices containing diagnostic and procedure codes indicative of prostate disease or lower urinary tract symptoms. Physician/supplier file claims for this sample of patients were used to identify diagnostic and therapeutic procedures relevant to BPH. During these 5 years claims for uroflowmetry peaked in 1993, filling cystometry gradually declined and pressure flow studies increased. Transurethral resection of the prostate decreased 43%, with even steeper reductions for open prostatectomy. The proportion of transurethral resections performed in hospital inpatients ebbed from 96 to 88%. Age specific operative rates for transurethral resection were highest in the ninth decade, and during the 5 years operative rates generally declined more among white than black men of the same age. Although urethrocystoscopy and excretory urography explicitly for BPH decreased markedly, from 1992 to 1995 the proportion of transurethral resections preceded by urethrocystoscopy for any indication increased from 45 to 47%, while excretory urograms were still obtained before 36% of these operations in 1992 and decreased to 26% in 1995. Evaluation and treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms in elderly men in the United States changed rapidly between 1991 and 1995, with a sharp decline in invasive therapy for BPH.

Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smeed, D. A.; McCarthy, G. D.; Cunningham, S. A.; Frajka-Williams, E.; Rayner, D.; Johns, W. E.; Meinen, C. S.; Baringer, M. O.; Moat, B. I.; Duchez, A.; Bryden, H. L.

2014-02-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has been observed continuously at 26° N since April 2004. The AMOC and its component parts are monitored by combining a transatlantic array of moored instruments with submarine-cable-based measurements of the Gulf Stream and satellite derived Ekman transport. The time series has recently been extended to October 2012 and the results show a downward trend since 2004. From April 2008 to March 2012, the AMOC was an average of 2.7 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1) weaker than in the first four years of observation (95% confidence that the reduction is 0.3 Sv or more). Ekman transport reduced by about 0.2 Sv and the Gulf Stream by 0.5 Sv but most of the change (2.0 Sv) is due to the mid-ocean geostrophic flow. The change of the mid-ocean geostrophic flow represents a strengthening of the southward flow above the thermocline. The increased southward flow of warm waters is balanced by a decrease in the southward flow of lower North Atlantic deep water below 3000 m. The transport of lower North Atlantic deep water slowed by 7% per year (95% confidence that the rate of slowing is greater than 2.5% per year).

Analysis of levels of support and resonance demonstrated by an elite singing teacher

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherer, Ronald C.; Radhakrishnan, Nandhakumar; Poulimenos, Andreas

2003-04-01

This was a study of levels of singing expertise demonstrated by an elite operatic singer and teacher. This approach may prove advantageous because the teacher demonstrates what he thinks is important, not what the nonsinging scientist thinks should be important. Two pedagogical sequences were studied: (1) the location of support-glottis (poor), chest (better), abdomen (best); (2) locations of resonance-hard palate/straight tone (poor), mouth (better), sinus/head (best). Measures were obtained for a single frequency (196 Hz), the vowel /ae/, and for mezzo-forte loudness using the /pae pae pae/ technique. Sequence differences: The support sequence was characterized by formant frequency lowering suggestive of vocal tract lengthening. The resonance sequence was characterized by flow (AC, mean flow) and abduction increases. Sequence similarities: The best locations had the widest F2 bandwidths. The better and best locations had the largest dB difference between F2 and F3. Although acoustic power increased through the sequences, the acoustic efficiency was not a discriminating factor. Open and speed quotients were not differentiating. The flow resistance was highest and aerodynamic power the lowest for the first of each sequence. Combined data: The maximum flow declination rate correlated highly with the AC flow (r=-0.92) and SPL (r=0.901).

Effect of human activities on overall trend of sedimentation in the lower Yellow River, China.

PubMed

Jiongxin, Xu

2004-05-01

The Yellow River has been intensively affected by human activities, particularly in the past 50 years, including soil-water conservation in the upper and middle drainage basin, flood protection in the lower reaches, and flow regulation and water diversion in the whole drainage basin. All these changes may impact sedimentation process of the lower Yellow River in different ways. Assessing these impacts comprehensively is important for more effective environmental management of the drainage basin. Based on the data of annual river flow, sediment load, and channel sedimentation in the lower Yellow River between 1950 and 1997, the purpose of this paper is to analyze the overall trend of channel sedimentation rate at a time scale of 50 years, and its formative cause. It was found in this study that erosion control measures and water diversion have counteractive impacts on sedimentation rate in the lower Yellow River. Although both annual river flow and sediment decreased, there was no change in channel sedimentation rate. A regression analysis indicated that the sedimentation in the lower Yellow River decreased with the sediment input to the lower Yellow River but increased with the river flow input. In the past 30-40 years, the basin-wide practice of erosion and sediment control measures resulted in a decline in sediment supply to the Yellow River; at the same time, the human development of water resources that required river flow regulation and water diversion caused great reduction in river flow. The former may reduce the sedimentation in the lower Yellow River, but the reduction of river flow increased the sedimentation. When their effects counterbalanced each other, the overall trend of channel sedimentation in the lower Yellow River remained unchanged. This fact may help us to better understand the positive and negative effects of human activities in the Yellow River basin and to pay more attention to the negative effect of the development of water resources. The results of this study demonstrate that, if the overuse of river water cannot be controlled, the reduction of channel sedimentation in the lower Yellow River cannot be realized through the practice of erosion and sediment control measures.

Virus transport during infiltration of a wetting front into initially unsaturated sand columns.

PubMed

Kenst, Andrew B; Perfect, Edmund; Wilhelm, Steven W; Zhuang, Jie; McCarthy, John F; McKay, Larry D

2008-02-15

We investigated the effect of different flow conditions on the transport of bacteriophage phiX174 in Memphis aquifer sand. Virus transport associated with a wetting front moving into an initially unsaturated horizontal sand column was experimentally compared with that observed under steady-state saturated vertical flow. Results obtained by sectioning the sand columns showthattotal (retained and free) resident virus concentrations decreased approximately exponentially with the travel distance. The rate of decline was similar under both transient unsaturated flow and steady-state saturated flow conditions. Total resident virus concentrations near the inlet were an order of magnitude greater than the virus concentration of the influent solution in both experiments, indicating continuous virus sorption during flow through this zone. Virus retardation was quantified using the ratio of the centroids of the relative saturation and virus concentration versus relative distance functions. The mean retardation factors were 6.43 (coefficient of variation, CV = 14.4%) and 8.22 (CV = 8.22%) for the transient unsaturated and steady-state saturated flow experiments, respectively. Attest indicated no significant difference between these values at P < 0.05. Air-water and air-water-solid interfaces are thought to enhance virus inactivation and sorption to solid particles. The similar retardation factors obtained may be attributable to the reduced presence of these interfaces in the two flow systems investigated as compared to steady-state unsaturated flow experiments in which these interfaces occur throughout the entire column.

Effects of height on treetop transpiration and stomatal conductance in coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens).

PubMed

Ambrose, Anthony R; Sillett, Stephen C; Koch, George W; Van Pelt, Robert; Antoine, Marie E; Dawson, Todd E

2010-10-01

Treetops become increasingly constrained by gravity-induced water stress as they approach maximum height. Here we examine the effects of height on seasonal and diurnal sap flow dynamics at the tops of 12 unsuppressed Sequoia sempervirens (D. Don) Endl. (coast redwood) trees 68-113 m tall during one growing season. Average treetop sap velocity (V(S)), transpiration per unit leaf area (E(L)) and stomatal conductance per unit leaf area (G(S)) significantly decreased with increasing height. These differences in sap flow were associated with an unexpected decrease in treetop sapwood area-to-leaf area ratios (A(S):A(L)) in the tallest trees. Both E(L) and G(S) declined as soil moisture decreased and vapor pressure deficit (D) increased throughout the growing season with a greater decline in shorter trees. Under high soil moisture and light conditions, reference G(S) (G(Sref); G(S) at D = 1 kPa) and sensitivity of G(S) to D (-δ; dG(S)/dlnD) significantly decreased with increasing height. The close relationship we observed between G(Sref) and -δ is consistent with the role of stomata in regulating E(L) and leaf water potential (Ψ(L)). Our results confirm that increasing tree height reduces gas exchange of treetop foliage and thereby contributes to lower carbon assimilation and height growth rates as S. sempervirens approaches maximum height.

Estimates of performance in the rate of decline of under-five mortality for 113 low- and middle-income countries, 1970-2010.

PubMed

Verguet, Stéphane; Jamison, Dean T

2014-03-01

BACKGROUND; Measuring country performance in health has focused on assessing predicted vs observed levels of outcomes, an indicator that varies slowly over time. An alternative is to measure performance in terms of the rate of change in how a selected outcome compares to what would be expected given contextual determinants. Rates of change in health indicators can prove more sensitive than levels to changes in social, intersectoral or health policy context. It is thus similar to the growth rate of gross domestic product in the economic context. We assess performance in the rate of change (decline) of under-five mortality for 113 low- and middle-income countries. For 1970-2010, we study the evolution in rates of decline of under-five mortality. For each decade, we define performance as the average of the difference between the observed rate of decline and a rate of decline predicted by a model controlling for the contextual factors of income, female education levels, decade and geographical location. In the 1970s, the top performer in the rate of decline of under-five mortality was Costa Rica. In the 2000s, the top performer was Turkey. Overall, performance in rates of decline correlated little with performance in levels of under-five mortality. A major transition in performance between decades suggests a change in underlying determinants and we report the magnitude of these transitions. For example, heavily AIDS impacted countries, such as Botswana, experienced major drops in performance between the 1980s and the 1990s and some, including Botswana, experienced major compensatory improvements between the 1990s and the 2000s. Rate-based measures of country performance in health provide a starting point for assessments of the importance of health system, social and intersectoral determinants of performance.

Forecasting the burden of future postmenopausal hip fractures.

PubMed

Omsland, T K; Magnus, J H

2014-10-01

A growing elderly population is expected worldwide, and the rate of hip fractures is decisive for the future fracture burden. Significant declines in hip fracture rates in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK are required to counteract the impact of the ageing effects. This study aims to evaluate the consequences of the expected growth of the elderly population worldwide on the hip fracture burden using Norway as an example. Furthermore, we wanted to estimate the decline in hip fracture rates required to counteract the anticipated increase in the burden of hip fracture for Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. The burden of future postmenopausal hip fractures in Norway were estimated given (1) constant age-specific rates, (2) continued decline, and (3) different cohort scenarios. Based on population projection estimates and population age-specific hip fracture rates in women 65 years and older, we calculated the required declines in hip fracture rates needed to counteract the growing elderly populations in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. The level of age-specific hip fracture rates had a huge impact on the future hip fracture burden in Norway. Even if the hip fracture rates decline at the same speed, a 22 % increase in the burden of hip fractures can be expected by 2040. An annual decline in hip fracture rates of 1.1-2.2 % until 2040 is required to counteract the effects of the growing elderly population on the future burden of hip fractures in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. Hip fracture rates have a great impact on the burden of hip fractures. The rates will have to decline significantly to counteract the impact of a growing elderly population. A change in preventive strategies and further studies are warranted to identify the complex causes associated to hip fractures.

The impact of retirement on age related cognitive decline - a systematic review.

PubMed

Meng, Annette; Nexø, Mette Andersen; Borg, Vilhelm

2017-07-21

Knowledge on factors affecting the rate of cognitive decline and how to maintain cognitive functioning in old age becomes increasingly relevant. The purpose of the current study was to systematically review the evidence for the impact of retirement on cognitive functioning and on age related cognitive decline. We conducted a systematic literature review, following the principles of the PRISMA statement, of longitudinal studies on the association between retirement and cognition. Only seven studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. We found weak evidence that retirement accelerates the rate of cognitive decline in crystallised abilities, but only for individuals retiring from jobs high in complexity with people. The evidence of the impact of retirement on the rate of decline in fluid cognitive abilities is conflicting. The review revealed a major knowledge gap in regards to the impact of retirement on cognitive decline. More knowledge on the association between retirement and age related cognitive decline as well as knowledge on the mechanisms behind these associations is needed.

Sequential Gaussian co-simulation of rate decline parameters of longwall gob gas ventholes.

PubMed

Karacan, C Özgen; Olea, Ricardo A

2013-04-01

Gob gas ventholes (GGVs) are used to control methane inflows into a longwall mining operation by capturing the gas within the overlying fractured strata before it enters the work environment. Using geostatistical co-simulation techniques, this paper maps the parameters of their rate decline behaviors across the study area, a longwall mine in the Northern Appalachian basin. Geostatistical gas-in-place (GIP) simulations were performed, using data from 64 exploration boreholes, and GIP data were mapped within the fractured zone of the study area. In addition, methane flowrates monitored from 10 GGVs were analyzed using decline curve analyses (DCA) techniques to determine parameters of decline rates. Surface elevation showed the most influence on methane production from GGVs and thus was used to investigate its relation with DCA parameters using correlation techniques on normal-scored data. Geostatistical analysis was pursued using sequential Gaussian co-simulation with surface elevation as the secondary variable and with DCA parameters as the primary variables. The primary DCA variables were effective percentage decline rate, rate at production start, rate at the beginning of forecast period, and production end duration. Co-simulation results were presented to visualize decline parameters at an area-wide scale. Wells located at lower elevations, i.e., at the bottom of valleys, tend to perform better in terms of their rate declines compared to those at higher elevations. These results were used to calculate drainage radii of GGVs using GIP realizations. The calculated drainage radii are close to ones predicted by pressure transient tests.

Sequential Gaussian co-simulation of rate decline parameters of longwall gob gas ventholes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karacan, C. Özgen; Olea, Ricardo A.

2013-01-01

Gob gas ventholes (GGVs) are used to control methane inflows into a longwall mining operation by capturing the gas within the overlying fractured strata before it enters the work environment. Using geostatistical co-simulation techniques, this paper maps the parameters of their rate decline behaviors across the study area, a longwall mine in the Northern Appalachian basin. Geostatistical gas-in-place (GIP) simulations were performed, using data from 64 exploration boreholes, and GIP data were mapped within the fractured zone of the study area. In addition, methane flowrates monitored from 10 GGVs were analyzed using decline curve analyses (DCA) techniques to determine parameters of decline rates. Surface elevation showed the most influence on methane production from GGVs and thus was used to investigate its relation with DCA parameters using correlation techniques on normal-scored data. Geostatistical analysis was pursued using sequential Gaussian co-simulation with surface elevation as the secondary variable and with DCA parameters as the primary variables. The primary DCA variables were effective percentage decline rate, rate at production start, rate at the beginning of forecast period, and production end duration. Co-simulation results were presented to visualize decline parameters at an area-wide scale. Wells located at lower elevations, i.e., at the bottom of valleys, tend to perform better in terms of their rate declines compared to those at higher elevations. These results were used to calculate drainage radii of GGVs using GIP realizations. The calculated drainage radii are close to ones predicted by pressure transient tests.

Sequential Gaussian co-simulation of rate decline parameters of longwall gob gas ventholes

PubMed Central

Karacan, C.Özgen; Olea, Ricardo A.

2015-01-01

Gob gas ventholes (GGVs) are used to control methane inflows into a longwall mining operation by capturing the gas within the overlying fractured strata before it enters the work environment. Using geostatistical co-simulation techniques, this paper maps the parameters of their rate decline behaviors across the study area, a longwall mine in the Northern Appalachian basin. Geostatistical gas-in-place (GIP) simulations were performed, using data from 64 exploration boreholes, and GIP data were mapped within the fractured zone of the study area. In addition, methane flowrates monitored from 10 GGVs were analyzed using decline curve analyses (DCA) techniques to determine parameters of decline rates. Surface elevation showed the most influence on methane production from GGVs and thus was used to investigate its relation with DCA parameters using correlation techniques on normal-scored data. Geostatistical analysis was pursued using sequential Gaussian co-simulation with surface elevation as the secondary variable and with DCA parameters as the primary variables. The primary DCA variables were effective percentage decline rate, rate at production start, rate at the beginning of forecast period, and production end duration. Co-simulation results were presented to visualize decline parameters at an area-wide scale. Wells located at lower elevations, i.e., at the bottom of valleys, tend to perform better in terms of their rate declines compared to those at higher elevations. These results were used to calculate drainage radii of GGVs using GIP realizations. The calculated drainage radii are close to ones predicted by pressure transient tests. PMID:26190930

Adsorption kinetic and desorption studies of Cd2+ on Multi-Carboxylic-Functionalized Silica Gel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Min; Wei, Jian; Meng, Xiaojing; Wu, Zhuqiang; Liang, Xiuke

2018-01-01

In the present study, the adsorption behavior of cadmium (II) ion from aqueous solution onto multi-carboxylic-functionalized silica gel (SG-MCF) has been investigated in detail by means of batch and column experiments. Batch experiments were performed to evaluate the effects of contact time on adsorption capacity of cadmium (II) ion. The kinetic data were analyzed on the basis of the pseudo-first-order kinetic and the pseudo-second-order kinetic models and consequently, the pseudo-second-order kinetic can better describe the adsorption process than the pseudo-first-order kinetic model. And the adsorption mechanism of the process was studied by intra-particle and film diffusion, it was found out that the adsorption rate was governed primarily by film diffusion to the adsorption onto the SG-MCF. In addition, column experiments were conducted to assess the effects initial inlet concentration and the flow rate on breakthrough time and adsorption capacity ascertaining the practical applicability of the adsorbent. The results suggest that the total amount of adsorbed cadmium (II) ion increased with declined flow rate and increased the inlet concentration. The adsorption-desorption experiment confirmed that adsorption capacity of cadmium (II) ion didn’t present an obvious decrease after five cycles.

Adsorption kinetic and desorption studies of Cu2+ on Multi-Carboxylic-Functionalized Silica Gel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Min; Meng, Xiaojing; Liu, Yushuang; Hu, Xinju; Liang, Xiuke

2018-01-01

In the present study, the adsorption behavior of copper (II) ion from aqueous solution onto multi-carboxylic-functionalized silica gel (SG-MCF) has been investigated in detail by means of batch and column experiments. Batch experiments were performed to evaluate the effects of contact time on adsorption capacity of copper (II) ion. The kinetic data were analyzed on the basis of the pseudo-first-order kinetic and the pseudo-second-order kinetic models and consequently, the pseudo-second-order kinetic can better describe the adsorption process than the pseudo-first-order kinetic model. And the adsorption mechanism of the process was studied by intra-particle and film diffusion, it was found out that the adsorption rate was governed primarily by film diffusion to the adsorption onto the SG-MCF. In addition, column experiments were conducted to assess the effects initial inlet concentration and the flow rate on breakthrough time and adsorption capacity ascertaining the practical applicability of the adsorbent. The results suggest that the total amount of adsorbed copper (II) ion increased with declined flow rate and increased the inlet concentration. The adsorption-desorption experiment confirmed that adsorption capacity of copper (II) ion didn’t present an obvious decrease after five cycles.

Ohia forest decline: its spread and severity in Hawaii

Treesearch

Edwin Q. P. Petteys; Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

1975-01-01

Ohia forest decline–its severity and rate of spread–was studied by aerial photographic techniques on a 197,000-acre (80,000-ha) portion of the island of Hawaii. In 1954, only 300 acres (121 ha) showed signs of severe decline; by 1972, the acreage of severely affected forest had increased to 85,200 acres (34,480 ha). Rate of decline and current severity were related to...

Outside-xylem pathways, not xylem embolism, drive leaf hydraulic decline with dehydration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Leaf hydraulic supply is crucial to enable the maintenance of open stomata for CO2 capture and plant growth. During drought-induced leaf dehydration, the capacity for water flow through the leaf (Kleaf) declines, a phenomenon surprisingly attributed for the past fifty years solely to the formation o...

Hemoglobin Decline in Children with Chronic Kidney Disease: Baseline Results from the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Fadrowski, Jeffrey J.; Pierce, Christopher B.; Cole, Stephen R.; Moxey-Mims, Marva; Warady, Bradley A.; Furth, Susan L.

2008-01-01

Background and objectives: The level of glomerular filtration rate at which hemoglobin declines in chronic kidney disease is poorly described in the pediatric population. Design, setting, participants, & measurements: This cross-sectional study of North American children with chronic kidney disease examined the association of glomerular filtration rate, determined by the plasma disappearance of iohexol, and hemoglobin concentration. Results: Of the 340 patients studied, the mean age was 11 ± 4 yr, the mean glomerular filtration rate was 42 ± 14 ml/min per 1.73 m2, and the mean hemoglobin was 12.5 ± 1.5. Below a glomerular filtration rate of 43, the hemoglobin declined by 0.3 g/dl (95% confidence interval −0.2 to −0.5) for every 5-ml/min per 1.73 m2 decrease in glomerular filtration rate. Above a glomerular filtration rate of 43 ml/min per 1.73 m2, the hemoglobin showed a nonsignificant decline of 0.1 g/dl for every 5-ml/min per 1.73 m2 decrease in glomerular filtration rate. Conclusions: In pediatric patients with chronic kidney disease, hemoglobin declines as an iohexol-determined glomerular filtration rate decreases below 43 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Because serum creatinine–based estimated glomerular filtration rates may overestimate measured glomerular filtration rate in this population, clinicians need to be mindful of the potential for hemoglobin decline and anemia even at early stages of chronic kidney disease, as determined by current Schwartz formula estimates. Future longitudinal analyses will further characterize the relationship between glomerular filtration rate and hemoglobin, including elucidation of reasons for the heterogeneity of this association among individuals. PMID:18235140

Gene flow in genetically modified wheat.

PubMed

Rieben, Silvan; Kalinina, Olena; Schmid, Bernhard; Zeller, Simon L

2011-01-01

Understanding gene flow in genetically modified (GM) crops is critical to answering questions regarding risk-assessment and the coexistence of GM and non-GM crops. In two field experiments, we tested whether rates of cross-pollination differed between GM and non-GM lines of the predominantly self-pollinating wheat Triticum aestivum. In the first experiment, outcrossing was studied within the field by planting "phytometers" of one line into stands of another line. In the second experiment, outcrossing was studied over distances of 0.5-2.5 m from a central patch of pollen donors to adjacent patches of pollen recipients. Cross-pollination and outcrossing was detected when offspring of a pollen recipient without a particular transgene contained this transgene in heterozygous condition. The GM lines had been produced from the varieties Bobwhite or Frisal and contained Pm3b or chitinase/glucanase transgenes, respectively, in homozygous condition. These transgenes increase plant resistance against pathogenic fungi. Although the overall outcrossing rate in the first experiment was only 3.4%, Bobwhite GM lines containing the Pm3b transgene were six times more likely than non-GM control lines to produce outcrossed offspring. There was additional variation in outcrossing rate among the four GM-lines, presumably due to the different transgene insertion events. Among the pollen donors, the Frisal GM line expressing a chitinase transgene caused more outcrossing than the GM line expressing both a chitinase and a glucanase transgene. In the second experiment, outcrossing after cross-pollination declined from 0.7-0.03% over the test distances of 0.5-2.5 m. Our results suggest that pollen-mediated gene flow between GM and non-GM wheat might only be a concern if it occurs within fields, e.g. due to seed contamination. Methodologically our study demonstrates that outcrossing rates between transgenic and other lines within crops can be assessed using a phytometer approach and that gene-flow distances can be efficiently estimated with population-level PCR analyses. © 2011 Rieben et al.

Gene Flow in Genetically Modified Wheat

PubMed Central

Rieben, Silvan; Kalinina, Olena; Schmid, Bernhard; Zeller, Simon L.

2011-01-01

Understanding gene flow in genetically modified (GM) crops is critical to answering questions regarding risk-assessment and the coexistence of GM and non-GM crops. In two field experiments, we tested whether rates of cross-pollination differed between GM and non-GM lines of the predominantly self-pollinating wheat Triticum aestivum. In the first experiment, outcrossing was studied within the field by planting “phytometers” of one line into stands of another line. In the second experiment, outcrossing was studied over distances of 0.5–2.5 m from a central patch of pollen donors to adjacent patches of pollen recipients. Cross-pollination and outcrossing was detected when offspring of a pollen recipient without a particular transgene contained this transgene in heterozygous condition. The GM lines had been produced from the varieties Bobwhite or Frisal and contained Pm3b or chitinase/glucanase transgenes, respectively, in homozygous condition. These transgenes increase plant resistance against pathogenic fungi. Although the overall outcrossing rate in the first experiment was only 3.4%, Bobwhite GM lines containing the Pm3b transgene were six times more likely than non-GM control lines to produce outcrossed offspring. There was additional variation in outcrossing rate among the four GM-lines, presumably due to the different transgene insertion events. Among the pollen donors, the Frisal GM line expressing a chitinase transgene caused more outcrossing than the GM line expressing both a chitinase and a glucanase transgene. In the second experiment, outcrossing after cross-pollination declined from 0.7–0.03% over the test distances of 0.5–2.5 m. Our results suggest that pollen-mediated gene flow between GM and non-GM wheat might only be a concern if it occurs within fields, e.g. due to seed contamination. Methodologically our study demonstrates that outcrossing rates between transgenic and other lines within crops can be assessed using a phytometer approach and that gene-flow distances can be efficiently estimated with population-level PCR analyses. PMID:22216349

Mixing Time Effects on the Dispersion Performance of Adhesive Mixtures for Inhalation

PubMed Central

Grasmeijer, Floris; Hagedoorn, Paul; Frijlink, Henderik W.; de Boer, H. Anne

2013-01-01

This paper deals with the effects of mixing time on the homogeneity and dispersion performance of adhesive mixtures for inhalation. Interactions between these effects and the carrier size fraction, the type of drug and the inhalation flow rate were studied. Furthermore, it was examined whether or not changes in the dispersion performance as a result of prolonged mixing can be explained with a balance of three processes that occur during mixing, knowing drug redistribution over the lactose carrier; (de-) agglomeration of the drug (and fine lactose) particles; and compression of the drug particles onto the carrier surface. For this purpose, mixtures containing salmeterol xinafoate or fluticasone propionate were mixed for different periods of time with a fine or coarse crystalline lactose carrier in a Turbula mixer. Drug detachment experiments were performed using a classifier based inhaler at different flow rates. Scanning electron microscopy and laser diffraction techniques were used to measure drug distribution and agglomeration, whereas changes in the apparent solubility were measured as a means to monitor the degree of mechanical stress imparted on the drug particles. No clear trend between mixing time and content uniformity was observed. Quantitative and qualitative interactions between the effect of mixing time on drug detachment and the type of drug, the carrier size fraction and the flow rate were measured, which could be explained with the three processes mentioned. Generally, prolonged mixing caused drug detachment to decrease, with the strongest decline occurring in the first 120 minutes of mixing. For the most cohesive drug (salmeterol) and the coarse carrier, agglomerate formation seemed to dominate the overall effect of mixing time at a low inhalation flow rate, causing drug detachment to increase with prolonged mixing. The optimal mixing time will thus depend on the formulation purpose and the choice for other, interacting variables. PMID:23844256

Patients with ALS show highly correlated progression rates in left and right limb muscles.

PubMed

Rushton, David J; Andres, Patricia L; Allred, Peggy; Baloh, Robert H; Svendsen, Clive N

2017-07-11

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) progresses at different rates between patients, making clinical trial design difficult and dependent on large cohorts of patients. Currently, there are few data showing whether the left and right limbs progress at the same or different rates. This study addresses rates of decline in specific muscle groups of patients with ALS and assesses whether there is a relationship between left and right muscles in the same patient, regardless of overall progression. A large cohort of patients was used to assess decline in muscle strength in right and left limbs over time using 2 different methods: The Tufts Quantitative Neuromuscular Exam and Accurate Test of Limb Isometric Strength protocol. Then advanced linear regression statistical methods were applied to assess progression rates in each limb. This report shows that linearized progression models can predict general slopes of decline with good accuracy. Critically, the data demonstrate that while overall decline is variable, there is a high degree of correlation between left and right muscle decline in ALS. This implies that irrespective of which muscle starts declining soonest or latest, their rates of decline following onset are more consistent. First, this study demonstrates a high degree of power when using unilateral treatment approaches to detect a slowing in disease progression in smaller groups of patients, thus allowing for paired statistical tests. These findings will be useful in transplantation trials that use muscle decline to track disease progression in ALS. Second, these findings discuss methods, such as tactical selection of muscle groups, which can improve the power efficiency of all ALS clinical trials. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.

Annual summary of vital statistics--1995.

PubMed

Guyer, B; Strobino, D M; Ventura, S J; MacDorman, M; Martin, J A

1996-12-01

Recent trends in the vital statistics of the United States continued in 1995, including decreases in the number of births, the birth rate, the age-adjusted death rate, and the infant mortality rate; life expectancy at birth increased to a level equal to the record high of 75.8 years in 1992. Marriages and divorces both decreased. An estimated 3,900,089 infants were born during 1995, a decline of 1% from 1994. The preliminary birth rate for 1995 was 14.8 live births per 1000 total population, a 3% decline, and the lowest recorded in nearly two decades. The fertility rate, which relates births to women in the childbearing ages, declined to 65.6 live births per 1000 women 15 to 44 years old, the lowest rate since 1986. According to preliminary data for 1995, fertility rates declined for all racial groups with the gap narrowing between black and white rates. The fertility rate for black women declined 7% to a historic low level (71.7); the preliminary rate for white women (64.5) dropped just 1%. Fertility rates continue to be highest for Hispanic, especially Mexican-American, women. Preliminary data for 1995 suggest a 2% decline in the rate for Hispanic women to 103.7. The birth rate for teenagers has now decreased for four consecutive years, from a high of 62.1 per 1000 women 15 to 19 years old in 1991 to 56.9 in 1995, an overall decline of 8%. The rate of childbearing by unmarried mothers dropped 4% from 1994 to 1995, from 46.9 births per 1000 unmarried women 15 to 44 years old to 44.9, the first decline in the rate in nearly two decades. The proportion of all births occurring to unmarried women dropped as well in 1995, to 32.0% from 32.6% in 1994. Smoking during pregnancy dropped steadily from 1989 (19.5%) to 1994 (14.6%), a decline of about 25%. Prenatal care utilization continued to improve in 1995 with 81.2% of all mothers receiving care in the first trimester compared with 78.9% in 1993. Preliminary data for 1995 suggests continued improvement to 81.2%. The percent of infants delivered by cesarean delivery declined slightly to 20.8% in 1995. The percent of low birth weight (LBW) infants continued to climb in 1994 rising to 7.3%, from 7.2% in 1993. The proportion of LBW improved slightly among black infants, declining from 13.3% to 13.2% between 1993 and 1994. Preliminary figures for 1995 suggest continued decline in LBW for black infants (13.0%). The multiple birth ratio rose to 25.7 per 1000 births for 1994, an increase of 2% over 1993 and 33% since 1980. Age-adjusted death rates in 1995 were lower for heart disease, malignant neoplasms, accidents, and homicide. Although the total number of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection deaths increased slightly from 42,114 in 1994 to an estimated 42,506 in 1995, the age-adjusted death rate for HIV infection did not increase, which may indicate a leveling off of the steep upward trend in mortality from HIV infection since 1987. Nearly 15,000 children between the ages of 1-14 years died in the United States (US) in 1995. The death rate for children 1 to 4 years old in 1995 was 40.4 per 100,000 population aged 1 to 4 years, 6% lower than the rate of 42.9 in 1994. The 1995 death rate for 5- to 14-year-olds was 22.1, 2% lower than the rate of 22.5 in 1994. Since 1979, death rates have declined by 37% for children 1 to 4 years old, and by 30% for children 5 to 14 years old. For children 1 to 4 years old, the leading cause of death was injuries, which accounted for for an estimated 2277 deaths in 1995, 36% of all deaths in this age group. Injuries were the leading cause of death for 5- to 14-year-olds as well, accounting for an ever higher percentage (41%) of all deaths. In 1995, the preliminary infant mortality rate was 7.5 per 1000live births, 6% lower than 1994, and the lowest ever recorded in the US. The decline occurred for neonatal as well as postneonatal mortality rates, and among white and black infants alike.

Environmental flows in the context of unconventional natural gas development in the Marcellus Shale

DOE PAGES

Buchanan, Brian P.; Auerbach, Daniel A.; McManamay, Ryan A.; ...

2017-01-04

Quantitative flow-ecology relationships are needed to evaluate how water withdrawals for unconventional natural gas development may impact aquatic ecosystems. Addressing this need, we studied current patterns of hydrologic alteration in the Marcellus Shale region and related the estimated flow alteration to fish community measures. We then used these empirical flow-ecology relationships to evaluate alternative surface water withdrawals and environmental flow rules. Reduced high-flow magnitude, dampened rates of change, and increased low-flow magnitudes were apparent regionally, but changes in many of the flow metrics likely to be sensitive to withdrawals also showed substantial regional variation. Fish community measures were significantly relatedmore » to flow alteration, including declines in species richness with diminished annual runoff, winter low-flow, and summer median-flow. In addition, the relative abundance of intolerant taxa decreased with reduced winter high-flow and increased flow constancy, while fluvial specialist species decreased with reduced winter and annual flows. Stream size strongly mediated both the impact of withdrawal scenarios and the protection afforded by environmental flow standards. Under the most intense withdrawal scenario, 75% of reference headwaters and creeks (drainage areas <99 km 2) experienced at least 78% reduction in summer flow, whereas little change was predicted for larger rivers. Moreover, the least intense withdrawal scenario still reduced summer flows by at least 21% for 50% of headwaters and creeks. The observed 90th quantile flow-ecology relationships indicate that such alteration could reduce species richness by 23% or more. Seasonally varying environmental flow standards and high fixed minimum flows protected the most streams from hydrologic alteration, but common minimum flow standards left numerous locations vulnerable to substantial flow alteration. This study clarifies how additional water demands in the region may adversely affect freshwater biological integrity. Furthermore, the results make clear that policies to limit or prevent water withdrawals from smaller streams can reduce the risk of ecosystem impairment.« less

Environmental flows in the context of unconventional natural gas development in the Marcellus Shale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buchanan, Brian P.; Auerbach, Daniel A.; McManamay, Ryan A.

Quantitative flow-ecology relationships are needed to evaluate how water withdrawals for unconventional natural gas development may impact aquatic ecosystems. Addressing this need, we studied current patterns of hydrologic alteration in the Marcellus Shale region and related the estimated flow alteration to fish community measures. We then used these empirical flow-ecology relationships to evaluate alternative surface water withdrawals and environmental flow rules. Reduced high-flow magnitude, dampened rates of change, and increased low-flow magnitudes were apparent regionally, but changes in many of the flow metrics likely to be sensitive to withdrawals also showed substantial regional variation. Fish community measures were significantly relatedmore » to flow alteration, including declines in species richness with diminished annual runoff, winter low-flow, and summer median-flow. In addition, the relative abundance of intolerant taxa decreased with reduced winter high-flow and increased flow constancy, while fluvial specialist species decreased with reduced winter and annual flows. Stream size strongly mediated both the impact of withdrawal scenarios and the protection afforded by environmental flow standards. Under the most intense withdrawal scenario, 75% of reference headwaters and creeks (drainage areas <99 km 2) experienced at least 78% reduction in summer flow, whereas little change was predicted for larger rivers. Moreover, the least intense withdrawal scenario still reduced summer flows by at least 21% for 50% of headwaters and creeks. The observed 90th quantile flow-ecology relationships indicate that such alteration could reduce species richness by 23% or more. Seasonally varying environmental flow standards and high fixed minimum flows protected the most streams from hydrologic alteration, but common minimum flow standards left numerous locations vulnerable to substantial flow alteration. This study clarifies how additional water demands in the region may adversely affect freshwater biological integrity. Furthermore, the results make clear that policies to limit or prevent water withdrawals from smaller streams can reduce the risk of ecosystem impairment.« less

Sensitivity Monitoring of the SECCHI COR1 Telescopes on STEREO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, William T.

2018-03-01

Measurements of bright stars passing through the fields of view of the inner coronagraphs (COR1) on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) are used to monitor changes in the radiometric calibration over the course of the mission. Annual decline rates are found to be 0.648 ± 0.066%/year for COR1-A on STEREO Ahead and 0.258 ± 0.060%/year for COR1-B on STEREO Behind. These rates are consistent with decline rates found for other space-based coronagraphs in similar radiation environments. The theorized cause for the decline in sensitivity is darkening of the lenses and other optical elements due to exposure to high-energy solar particles and photons, although other causes are also possible. The total decline in the COR-B sensitivity when contact with Behind was lost on 1 October 2014 was 1.7%, while COR1-A was down by 4.4%. As of 1 November 2017, the COR1-A decline is estimated to be 6.4%. The SECCHI calibration routines will be updated to take these COR1 decline rates into account.

The world population explosion: causes, backgrounds and projections for the future

PubMed Central

Van Bavel, J.

2013-01-01

At the beginning of the nineteenth century, the total world population crossed the threshold of 1 billion people for the first time in the history of the homo sapiens sapiens. Since then, growth rates have been increasing exponentially, reaching staggeringly high peaks in the 20th century and slowing down a bit thereafter. Total world population reached 7 billion just after 2010 and is expected to count 9 billion by 2045. This paper first charts the differences in population growth between the world regions. Next, the mechanisms behind unprecedented population growth are explained and plausible scenarios for future developments are discussed. Crucial for the long term trend will be the rate of decline of the number of births per woman, called total fertility. Improvements in education, reproductive health and child survival will be needed to speed up the decline of total fertility, particularly in Africa. But in all scenarios, world population will continue to grow for some time due to population momentum. Finally, the paper outlines the debate about the consequences of the population explosion, involving poverty and food security, the impact on the natural environment, and migration flows. Key words: Fertility, family planning, world population, population growth, demographic transition, urbanization, population momentum, population projections. PMID:24753956

Flow-specific trends in river-water quality resulting from the effects of the clean air act in three mesoscale, forested river basins in the northeastern United States through 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murdoch, Peter S.; Shanley, J.B.

2006-01-01

Two new methods for assessing temporal trends in stream-solute concentrations at specific streamflow ranges were applied to long (40 to 50-year) but sparse (bi-weekly to quarterly sampling) stream-water quality data collected at three forested mesoscale basins along an atmospheric deposition gradient in the northeastern United States (one in north-central Pennsylvania, one in southeastern New York, and one in eastern Maine). The three data sets span the period since the implementation of the Clean Air Act in 1970 and its subsequent amendments. Declining sulfate (SO2-4) trends since the mid 1960s were identified for all 3 rivers by one or more of the 4 methods of trend detection used. Flow-specific trends were assessed by segmenting the data sets into 3-year and 6-year blocks, then determining concentration-discharge relationships for each block. Declining sulfate (SO2-4) trends at median flow were similar to trends determined using a Seasonal Kendall Tau test and Sen slope estimator. The trend of declining SO2-4 concentrations differed at high, median and low flow since the mid 1980s at YWC and NR, and at high and low flow at WR, but the trends leveled or reversed at high flow from 1999 through 2002. Trends for the period of record at high flows were similar to medium- and low-flow trends for Ca2+ + Mg2+ concentrations at WR, non-significant at YWC, and were more negative at low flow than at high flow at NR; trends in nitrate (NO-3), and alkalinity (ALK) concentrations were different at different flow conditions, and in ways that are consistent with the hydrology and deposition history at each watershed. Quarterly sampling is adequate for assessing average-flow trends in the chemical parameters assessed over long time periods (???decades). However, with even a modest effort at sampling a range of flow conditions within each year, trends at specified flows for constituents with strong concentration-discharge relationships can be evaluated and may allow early detection of ecosystem response to climate change and pollution management strategies. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, B.V. 2006.

Historical habitat barriers prevent ring-like genetic continuity throughout the distribution of threatened Alameda Striped Racers (Coluber lateralis euryxanthus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richmond, Jonathan Q.; Wood, Dustin A.; Swaim, Karen; Fisher, Robert N.; Vandergast, Amy

2016-01-01

We used microsatellites and mtDNA sequences to examine the mixed effects of geophysical, habitat, and contemporary urban barriers on the genetics of threatened Alameda Striped Racers (Coluber lateralis euryxanthus), a species with close ties to declining coastal scrub and chaparral habitat in the eastern San Francisco Bay area of California. We used cluster assignments to characterize population genetic structuring with respect to land management units and approximate Bayesian analysis to rank the ability of five alternative evolutionary hypotheses to explain the inferred structure. Then, we estimated rates of contemporary and historical migration among the major clusters and measured the fit of different historical migration models to better understand the formation of the current population structure. Our results reveal a ring-like pattern of historical connectivity around the Tri-Valley area of the East Bay (i.e., San Ramon, Amador, and Livermore valleys), with clusters largely corresponding to different management units. We found no evidence of continuous gene flow throughout the ring, however, and that the main gap in continuity is centered across the Livermore Valley. Historical migration models support higher rates of gene flow away from the terminal ends of the ring on the north and south sides of the Valley, compared with rates into those areas from western sites that border the interior San Francisco Bay. We attribute the break in ring-like connectivity to the presence of unsuitable habitat within the Livermore Valley that has been reinforced by 20th century urbanization, and the asymmetry in gene flow rates to spatial constraints on movement and east–west environmental gradients influenced by the proximity of the San Francisco Bay.

Aortic Blood Flow Reversal Determines Renal Function: Potential Explanation for Renal Dysfunction Caused by Aortic Stiffening in Hypertension.

PubMed

Hashimoto, Junichiro; Ito, Sadayoshi

2015-07-01

Aortic stiffness determines the glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and predicts the progressive decline of the GFR. However, the underlying pathophysiological mechanism remains obscure. Recent evidence has shown a close link between aortic stiffness and the bidirectional (systolic forward and early diastolic reverse) flow characteristics. We hypothesized that the aortic stiffening-induced renal dysfunction is attributable to altered central flow dynamics. In 222 patients with hypertension, Doppler velocity waveforms were recorded at the proximal descending aorta to calculate the reverse/forward flow ratio. Tonometric waveforms were recorded to measure the carotid-femoral (aortic) and carotid-radial (peripheral) pulse wave velocities, to estimate the aortic pressure from the radial waveforms, and to compute the aortic characteristic impedance. In addition, renal hemodynamics was evaluated by duplex ultrasound. The estimated GFR was inversely correlated with the aortic pulse wave velocity, reverse/forward flow ratio, pulse pressure, and characteristic impedance, whereas it was not correlated with the peripheral pulse wave velocity or mean arterial pressure. The association between aortic pulse wave velocity and estimated GFR was independent of age, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and antihypertensive medication. However, further adjustment for the aortic reverse/forward flow ratio and pulse pressure substantially weakened this association, and instead, the reverse/forward flow ratio emerged as the strongest determinant of estimated GFR (P=0.001). A higher aortic reverse/forward flow ratio was also associated with lower intrarenal forward flow velocities. These results suggest that an increase in aortic flow reversal (ie, retrograde flow from the descending thoracic aorta toward the aortic arch), caused by aortic stiffening and impedance mismatch, reduces antegrade flow into the kidney and thereby deteriorates renal function. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Reduction in CD4 central memory T-cell subset in costimulation modulator abatacept-treated patients with recent-onset type 1 diabetes is associated with slower C-peptide decline.

PubMed

Orban, Tihamer; Beam, Craig A; Xu, Ping; Moore, Keith; Jiang, Qi; Deng, Jun; Muller, Sarah; Gottlieb, Peter; Spain, Lisa; Peakman, Mark

2014-10-01

We previously reported that continuous 24-month costimulation blockade by abatacept significantly slows the decline of β-cell function after diagnosis of type 1 diabetes. In a mechanistic extension of that study, we evaluated peripheral blood immune cell subsets (CD4, CD8-naive, memory and activated subsets, myeloid and plasmacytoid dendritic cells, monocytes, B lymphocytes, CD4(+)CD25(high) regulatory T cells, and invariant NK T cells) by flow cytometry at baseline and 3, 6, 12, 24, and 30 months after treatment initiation to discover biomarkers of therapeutic effect. Using multivariable analysis and lagging of longitudinally measured variables, we made the novel observation in the placebo group that an increase in central memory (CM) CD4 T cells (CD4(+)CD45R0(+)CD62L(+)) during a preceding visit was significantly associated with C-peptide decline at the subsequent visit. These changes were significantly affected by abatacept treatment, which drove the peripheral contraction of CM CD4 T cells and the expansion of naive (CD45R0(-)CD62L(+)) CD4 T cells in association with a significantly slower rate of C-peptide decline. The findings show that the quantification of CM CD4 T cells can provide a surrogate immune marker for C-peptide decline after the diagnosis of type 1 diabetes and that costimulation blockade may exert its beneficial therapeutic effect via modulation of this subset. © 2014 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Generation of Accurate Lateral Boundary Conditions for a Surface-Water Groundwater Interaction Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khambhammettu, P.; Tsou, M.; Panday, S. M.; Kool, J.; Wei, X.

2010-12-01

The 106 mile long Peace River in Florida flows south from Lakeland to Charlotte Harbor and has a drainage basin of approximately 2,350 square miles. A long-term decline in stream flows and groundwater potentiometric levels has been observed in the region. Long-term trends in rainfall, along with effects of land use changes on runoff, surface-water storage, recharge and evapotranspiration patterns, and increased groundwater and surface-water withdrawals have contributed to this decline. The South West Florida Water Management District (SWFWMD) has funded the development of the Peace River Integrated Model (PRIM) to assess the effects of land use, water use, and climatic changes on stream flows and to evaluate the effectiveness of various management alternatives for restoring stream flows. The PRIM was developed using MODHMS, a fully integrated surface-water groundwater flow and transport simulator developed by HydroGeoLogic, Inc. The development of the lateral boundary conditions (groundwater inflow and outflow) for the PRIM in both historical and predictive contexts is discussed in this presentation. Monthly-varying specified heads were used to define the lateral boundary conditions for the PRIM. These head values were derived from the coarser Southern District Groundwater Model (SDM). However, there were discrepancies between the simulated SDM heads and measured heads: the likely causes being spatial (use of a coarser grid) and temporal (monthly average pumping rates and recharge rates) approximations in the regional SDM. Finer re-calibration of the SDM was not feasible, therefore, an innovative approach was adopted to remove the discrepancies. In this approach, point discrepancies/residuals between the observed and simulated heads were kriged with an appropriate variogram to generate a residual surface. This surface was then added to the simulated head surface of the SDM to generate a corrected head surface. This approach preserves the trends associated with groundwater pumping / recharge in the SDM and adds the kriged residual surface as variations back to the trend. The variations could be from the scale effects of grid resolution and from the temporal averaging of stresses (pumping, recharge, etc.,). The validity of the approach is demonstrated by visual and statistical comparison of the observed and simulated heads before and after correction. For predictive simulations, an Artificial Neural Network was trained to predict heads at monitoring wells based on precipitation and pumping. These predicted head values could then be used as surrogate observations for correcting the results of the regional SDM. In summary, an appropriate approach to link a regional groundwater model to a detailed surface-water groundwater interaction model is demonstrated with an example.

Blood Leukocyte Concentrations, FEV1 Decline, and Airflow Limitation. A 15-Year Longitudinal Study of World Trade Center-exposed Firefighters.

PubMed

Zeig-Owens, Rachel; Singh, Ankura; Aldrich, Thomas K; Hall, Charles B; Schwartz, Theresa; Webber, Mayris P; Cohen, Hillel W; Kelly, Kerry J; Nolan, Anna; Prezant, David J; Weiden, Michael D

2018-02-01

Rescue/recovery work at the World Trade Center disaster site (WTC) caused a proximate decline in lung function in Fire Department of the City of New York firefighters. A subset of this cohort experienced an accelerated rate of lung function decline over 15 years of post-September 11, 2001 (9/11) follow-up. To determine if early postexposure blood leukocyte concentrations are biomarkers for subsequent FEV 1 decline and incident airflow limitation. Individual rates of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1 ) change were calculated for 9,434 firefighters using 88,709 spirometric measurements taken between September 11, 2001, and September 10, 2016. We categorized FEV 1 change rates into three trajectories: accelerated FEV 1 decline (FEV 1 loss >64 ml/yr), expected FEV 1 decline (FEV 1 loss between 0 and 64 ml/yr), and improved FEV 1 (positive rate of change >0 ml/yr). Occurrence of FEV 1 /FVC less than 0.70 after 9/11 defined incident airflow limitation. Using regression models, we assessed associations of post-9/11 blood eosinophil and neutrophil concentrations with subsequent FEV 1 decline and airflow limitation, adjusted for age, race, smoking, height, WTC exposure level, weight change, and baseline lung function. Accelerated FEV 1 decline occurred in 12.7% of participants (1,199 of 9,434), whereas post-9/11 FEV 1 improvement occurred in 8.3% (780 of 9,434). Higher blood eosinophil and neutrophil concentrations were each associated with accelerated FEV 1 decline after adjustment for covariates (odds ratio [OR], 1.10 per 100 eosinophils/μl; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.15; and OR, 1.10 per 1,000 neutrophils/μl; 95% CI, 1.05-1.15, respectively). Multivariable-adjusted linear regression models showed that a higher blood neutrophil concentration was associated with a faster rate of FEV 1 decline (1.14 ml/yr decline per 1,000 neutrophils/μl; 95% CI, 0.69-1.60 ml/yr; P < 0.001). Higher blood eosinophil concentrations were associated with a faster rate of FEV 1 decline in ever-smokers (1.46 ml/yr decline per 100 eosinophils/μl; 95% CI, 0.65-2.26 ml/yr; P < 0.001) but not in never-smokers (P for interaction = 0.004). Higher eosinophil concentrations were also associated with incident airflow limitation (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.10 per 100 eosinophils/μl; 95% CI, 1.04-1.15). Compared with the expected FEV 1 decline group, individuals experiencing accelerated FEV 1 decline were more likely to have incident airflow limitation (adjusted OR, 4.12; 95% CI, 3.30-5.14). Higher post-9/11 blood neutrophil and eosinophil concentrations were associated with subsequent accelerated FEV 1 decline in WTC-exposed firefighters. Both higher blood eosinophil concentrations and accelerated FEV 1 decline were associated with incident airflow limitation in WTC-exposed firefighters.

Implications of climate change for potamodromous fishes.

PubMed

Beatty, Stephen J; Morgan, David L; Lymbery, Alan J

2014-06-01

There is little understanding of how climate change will impact potamodromous freshwater fishes. Since the mid 1970s, a decline in annual rainfall in south-western Australia (a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot) has resulted in the rivers of the region undergoing severe reductions in surface flows (ca. 50%). There is universal agreement amongst Global Climate Models that rainfall will continue to decline in this region. Limited data are available on the movement patterns of the endemic freshwater fishes of south-western Australia or on the relationship between their life histories and hydrology. We used this region as a model to determine how dramatic hydrological change may impact potamodromous freshwater fishes. Migration patterns of fishes in the largest river in south-western Australia were quantified over a 4 year period and were related to a number of key environmental variables including discharge, temperature, pH, conductivity and dissolved oxygen. Most of the endemic freshwater fishes were potamodromous, displaying lateral seasonal spawning migrations from the main channel into tributaries, and there were significant temporal differences in movement patterns between species. Using a model averaging approach, amount of discharge was clearly the best predictor of upstream and downstream movement for most species. Given past and projected reductions in surface flow and groundwater, the findings have major implications for future recruitment rates and population viabilities of potamodromous fishes. Freshwater ecosystems in drying climatic regions can only be managed effectively if such hydro-ecological relationships are considered. Proactive management and addressing existing anthropogenic stressors on aquatic ecosystems associated with the development of surface and groundwater resources and land use is required to increase the resistance and resilience of potamodromous fishes to ongoing flow reductions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of vegetable oil in a pilot-scale denitrifying barrier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, William J.

2001-12-01

Nitrate in drinking water is a hazard to both humans and animals. Contaminated water can cause methemoglobinemia and may pose a cancer risk. Permeable barriers containing innocuous oils, which stimulate denitrification, can remove nitrate from flowing groundwater. For this study, a sand tank (1.1×2.0×0.085 m in size) containing sand was used as a one-dimensional open-top scale model of an aquifer. A meter-long area near the center of the tank contained sand coated with soybean oil. This region served as a permeable denitrifying barrier. Water containing 20 mg l -1 nitrate-N was pumped through the barrier at a high flow rate, 1112 l week -1, for 30 weeks. During the 30-week study, the barrier removed 39% of the total nitrate-N present in the water. The barrier was most efficient during the first 10 weeks of the study when almost all of the nitrate and nitrogen was removed. Efficiency declined with time so that by week 30 almost no nitrate was removed by the system. Nitrite levels in the effluent water remained low throughout the study. Barriers could be used to protect groundwater from nitrate contamination or for the in situ treatment of contaminated water. At the low flow rates that exist in most aquifers, such barriers should be effective at removing nitrate from groundwater for a much longer period of time.

Primary and secondary battery consumption trends in Sweden 1996–2013: Method development and detailed accounting by battery type

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patrício, João, E-mail: joao.patricio@chalmers.se; Kalmykova, Yuliya; Berg, Per E.O.

2015-05-15

Highlights: • Developed MFA method was validated by the national statistics. • Exponential increase of EEE sales leads to increase in integrated battery consumption. • Digital convergence is likely to be a cause for primary batteries consumption decline. • Factors for estimation of integrated batteries in EE are provided. • Sweden reached the collection rates defined by European Union. - Abstract: In this article, a new method based on Material Flow Accounting is proposed to study detailed material flows in battery consumption that can be replicated for other countries. The method uses regularly available statistics on import, industrial production andmore » export of batteries and battery-containing electric and electronic equipment (EEE). To promote method use by other scholars with no access to such data, several empirically results and their trends over time, for different types of batteries occurrence among the EEE types are provided. The information provided by the method can be used to: identify drivers of battery consumption; study the dynamic behavior of battery flows – due to technology development, policies, consumers behavior and infrastructures. The method is exemplified by the study of battery flows in Sweden for years 1996–2013. The batteries were accounted, both in units and weight, as primary and secondary batteries; loose and integrated; by electrochemical composition and share of battery use between different types of EEE. Results show that, despite a fivefold increase in the consumption of rechargeable batteries, they account for only about 14% of total use of portable batteries. Recent increase in digital convergence has resulted in a sharp decline in the consumption of primary batteries, which has now stabilized at a fairly low level. Conversely, the consumption of integrated batteries has increased sharply. In 2013, 61% of the total weight of batteries sold in Sweden was collected, and for the particular case of alkaline manganese dioxide batteries, the value achieved 74%.« less

Design and performance of limestone drains to increase pH and remove metals from acidic mine drainage, Chapter 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cravotta,, Charles A.; Watzlaf, George R.

2002-01-01

Data on the construction characteristics and the composition of influent and effluent at 13 underground, limestone-filled drains in Pennsylvania and Maryland are reported to evaluate the design and performance of limestone drains for the attenuation of acidity and dissolved metals in acidic mine drainage. On the basis of the initial mass of limestone, dimensions of the drains, and average flow rates, the initial porosity and average detention time for each drain were computed. Calculated porosity ranged from 0.12 to 0.50 with corresponding detention times at average flow from 1.3 to 33 h. The effectiveness of treatment was dependent on influent chemistry, detention time, and limestone purity. At two sites where influent contained elevated dissolved Al (>5 mg/liter), drain performance declined rapidly; elsewhere the drains consistently produced near-neutral effluent, even when influent contained small concentrations of dissolved Fe^+ (<5 mg/liter). Rates of limestone dissolution computed on the basis of average long-term Ca ion flux normalized by initial mass and purity of limestone at each of the drains ranged from 0.008 to 0.079 year-1. Data for alkalinity concentration and flux during 11-day closed-container tests using an initial mass of 4kg crushed limestone and a solution volume of 2.3 liter yielded dissolution rate constants that were comparable to these long-term field rates. An analytical method is proposed using closed-container test data to evaluate long-term performance (longevity) or to estimate the mass of limestone needed for a limestone treatment. This method condisers flow rate, influent alkalinity, steady-state alkalinity of effluent, and desired effluent alkalinity or detention time at a future time(s) and aplies first-order rate laws for limestone dissolution (continuous) and production of alkalinity (bounded).

Post-earthquake denudation and its impacts on ancient civilizations in the Chengdu Longmenshan region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ningsheng; Li, Jun; Liu, Lihong; Yang, Chenglin; Liu, Mei

2018-05-01

This study characterizes significant changes in denudation and disasters in mountainous areas induced in the humid Chengdu Longmenshan region by the Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008. A study focusing on the Longxi-Baisha River Basin was conducted to investigate the amount of denudation triggered by specific flash flood and debris flow events in 2009-2014. The following results were obtained through a comparison of pre-seismic regional denudation rates and denudation characteristics of other seismically active mountain regions. (1) Regional denudation processes occurred in a wave-like process of initial increase then decline, with a peak exhibiting a hyperbolic attenuation trend. This trend indicates that the denudation rate in the Chengdu Longmenshan region is expected to return to the pre-seismic rate of 0.3 mm a-1 after 81 years. In 22 years after the earthquake (Year 2030), debris flow disasters are expected to be rare. (2) Disasters increased significantly in the Chengdu Longmenshan region after the Wenchuan earthquake, with an average of 29.5 people missing or dead per year (22 times greater than the pre-earthquake rate) and average economic losses of 192 million Yuan per year (1.6 times greater than the pre-earthquake rate). (3) The denudation process was jointly controlled by the quantities of loose solid material and precipitation after the Wenchuan earthquake. The amount of loose solid material influenced the extent of denudation, while vegetation coverage rates and soil consolidation determined the overall denudation trend in the region, and changes in precipitation led to denudation fluctuations. (4) The results can be used to analyze the relationship between the potential flash flood-debris flow disasters after earthquakes in the ancient Shu kingdom and changes in historical social settlements. The results can also be used to predict denudation processes and disaster risks from earthquakes in humid mountainous regions around the world, such as the southern slope of the Himalayas, Japan and the Taiwan mountains.

Is exercise an acceptable and practical therapy for people with or cured of cancer? A systematic review.

PubMed

Maddocks, Matthew; Mockett, Simon; Wilcock, Andrew

2009-06-01

Therapeutic exercise, although potentially beneficial, does not appear acceptable to many cancer patients. A greater understanding of the reasons for this is required. We have systematically reviewed the use of exercise in this group, identifying rates of uptake, adherence and completion along with factors influencing acceptability. Searches were completed using relevant key words. Data on study design, patient group, exercise intervention, patient flow data and reasons for declining or withdrawing from a programme were independently extracted by two researchers. Rates of study uptake, completion and adherence were compared according to dichotomised patient or programme characteristics using Mann Whitney U test (p=0.05). Reasons provided when declining or withdrawing from a study were categorised. Sixty five studies were included. The majority contained groups made up entirely or predominantly of patients with breast cancer offered an aerobic or resistance exercise programme. The median [IQR] rates of uptake, adherence and completion were 63 [33-80]%, 84 [72-93]% and 87 [80-96]%, respectively. No characteristic influenced the proportion of patients taking up or completing a programme. The main reasons for refusal were disinterest or the impracticality of undertaking the programme and for withdrawal, medical complication or deterioration. The invitation to undertake a programme of therapeutic exercise is accepted by about two-thirds of patients. Rates of adherence and completion are relatively high, but overall, only about half of patients offered a programme complete one. There is a need to modify exercise programmes if they are to be acceptable for the majority of patients.

Land subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, 2007-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sneed, M.; Brandt, J. T.

2015-11-01

Rapid land subsidence was recently measured using multiple methods in two areas of the San Joaquin Valley (SJV): between Merced and Fresno (El Nido), and between Fresno and Bakersfield (Pixley). Recent land-use changes and diminished surface-water availability have led to increased groundwater pumping, groundwater-level declines, and land subsidence. Differential land subsidence has reduced the flow capacity of water-conveyance systems in these areas, exacerbating flood hazards and affecting the delivery of irrigation water. Vertical land-surface changes during 2007-2014 were determined by using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS), and extensometer data. Results of the InSAR analysis indicate that about 7600 km2 subsided 50-540 mm during 2008-2010; CGPS and extensometer data indicate that these rates continued or accelerated through December 2014. The maximum InSAR-measured rate of 270 mm yr-1 occurred in the El Nido area, and is among the largest rates ever measured in the SJV. In the Pixley area, the maximum InSAR-measured rate during 2008-2010 was 90 mm yr-1. Groundwater was an important part of the water supply in both areas, and pumping increased when land use changed or when surface water was less available. This increased pumping caused groundwater-level declines to near or below historical lows during the drought periods 2007-2009 and 2012-present. Long-term groundwater-level and land-subsidence monitoring in the SJV is critical for understanding the interconnection of land use, groundwater levels, and subsidence, and evaluating management strategies that help mitigate subsidence hazards to infrastructure while optimizing water supplies.

ACCRETION FLOW DYNAMICS OF MAXI J1836-194 DURING ITS 2011 OUTBURST FROM TCAF SOLUTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jana, Arghajit; Debnath, Dipak; Chakrabarti, Sandip K.

2016-03-20

The Galactic transient X-ray binary MAXI J1836-194 was discovered on 2011 August 29. Here we make a detailed study of the spectral and timing properties of its 2011 outburst using archival data from the RXTE Proportional Counter Array instrument. The evolution of accretion flow dynamics of the source during the outburst through spectral analysis with Chakrabarti–Titarchuk’s two-component advective flow (TCAF) solution as a local table model in XSPEC. We also fitted spectra with combined disk blackbody and power-law models and compared it with the TCAF model fitted results. The source is found to be in hard and hard-intermediate spectral states onlymore » during the entire phase of this outburst. No soft or soft-intermediate spectral states are observed. This could be due to the fact that this object belongs to a special class of sources (e.g., MAXI J1659-152, Swift J1753.5-0127, etc.) that have very short orbital periods and that the companion is profusely mass-losing or the disk is immersed inside an excretion disk. In these cases, flows in the accretion disk are primarily dominated by low viscous sub-Keplerian flow and the Keplerian rate is not high enough to initiate softer states. Low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) are observed sporadically although as in normal outbursts of transient black holes, monotonic evolutions of QPO frequency during both rising and declining phases are observed. From the TCAF fits, we find the mass of the black hole in the range of 7.5–11 M{sub ⊙}, and from time differences between peaks of the Keplerian and sub-Keplerian accretion rates we obtain a viscous timescale for this particular outburst, ∼10 days.« less

Quantifying water requirements of riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia: Implications for the management of environmental flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doody, Tanya M.; Colloff, Matthew J.; Davies, Micah; Koul, Vijay; Benyon, Richard G.; Nagler, Pamela L.

2015-01-01

Water resource development and drought have altered river flow regimes, increasing average flood return intervals across floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, causing health declines in riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) forests and woodlands. Environmental flow allocations helped to alleviate water stress during the recent Millennium Drought (1997–2010), however, quantification of the flood frequency required to support healthy E. camaldulensis communities is still needed. We quantified water requirements of E. camaldulensis for two years across a flood gradient (trees inundated at frequencies of 1:2, 1:5 and 1:10 years) at Yanga National Park, New South Wales to help inform management decision-making and design of environmental flows. Sap flow, evaporative losses and soil moisture measurements were used to determine transpiration, evapotranspiration and plant-available soil water before and after flooding. A formula was developed using plant-available soil water post-flooding and average annual rainfall, to estimate maintenance time of soil water reserves in each flood frequency zone. Results indicated that soil water reserves could sustain 1:2 and 1:5 trees for 15 months and six years, respectively. Trees regulated their transpiration rates, allowing them to persist within their flood frequency zone, and showed reduction in active sapwood area and transpiration rates when flood frequencies exceeded 1:2 years. A leaf area index of 0.5 was identified as a potential threshold indicator of severe drought stress. Our results suggest environmental water managers may have greater flexibility to adaptively manage floodplains in order to sustain E. camaldulensis forests and woodlands than has been appreciated hitherto.

Modeling the effects of urban expansion on natural capital stocks and ecosystem service flows: A case study in the Puget Sound, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zank, Ben; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Voigt, Brian; Villa, Ferdinando

2016-01-01

Urban expansion and its associated landscape modifications are important drivers of changes in ecosystem service (ES). This study examined the effects of two alternative land use-change development scenarios in the Puget Sound region of Washington State on natural capital stocks and ES flows. Land-use change model outputs served as inputs to five ES models developed using the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) platform. While natural capital stocks declined under managed (1.3–5.8%) and unmanaged (2.8–11.8%) development scenarios, ES flows increased by 18.5–56% and 23.2–55.7%, respectively. Human development of natural landscapes reduced their capacity for service provision, while simultaneously adding beneficiaries, particularly along the urban fringe. Using global and local Moran’s I, we identified three distinct patterns of change in ES due to projected landuse change. For services with location-dependent beneficiaries – open space proximity, viewsheds, and flood regulation – urbanization led to increased clustering and hot-spot intensities. ES flows were greatest in the managed land-use change scenario for open space proximity and flood regulation, and in the unmanaged land-use change scenario for viewsheds—a consequence of the differing ES flow mechanisms underpinning these services. We observed a third pattern – general declines in service provision – for carbon storage and sediment retention, where beneficiaries in our analysis were not location dependent. Contrary to past authors’ finding of ES declines under urbanization, a more nuanced analysis that maps and quantifies ES provision, beneficiaries, and flows better identifies gains and losses for specific ES beneficiaries as urban areas expand.

Temperature decline thermography for laminar-turbulent transition detection in aerodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Hoesslin, Stefan; Stadlbauer, Martin; Gruendmayer, Juergen; Kähler, Christian J.

2017-09-01

Detailed knowledge about laminar-turbulent transition and heat transfer distribution of flows around complex aerodynamic components are crucial to achieve highest efficiencies in modern aerodynamical systems. Several measurement techniques have been developed to determine those parameters either quantitatively or qualitatively. Most of them require extensive instrumentation or give unreliable results as the boundary conditions are often not known with the required precision. This work introduces the simple and robust temperature decline method to qualitatively detect the laminar-turbulent transition and the respective heat transfer coefficients on a surface exposed to an air flow, according to patent application Stadlbauer et al. (Patentnr. WO2014198251 A1, 2014). This method provides results which are less sensitive to control parameters such as the heat conduction into the blade material and temperature inhomogeneities in the flow or blade. This method was applied to measurements with NACA0018 airfoils exposed to the flow of a calibration-free jet at various Reynolds numbers and angles of attack. For data analysis, a post-processing method was developed and qualified to determine a quantity proportional to the heat transfer coefficient into the flow. By plotting this quantity for each pixel of the surface, a qualitative, two-dimensional heat transfer map was obtained. The results clearly depicted the areas of onset and end of transition over the full span of the model and agreed with the expected behavior based on the respective flow condition. To validate the approach, surface hotfilm measurements were conducted simultaneously on the same NACA profile. Both techniques showed excellent agreement. The temperature decline method allows to visualize laminar-turbulent transitions on static or moving parts and can be applied on a very broad range of scales—from tiny airfoils up to large airplane wings.

Porcine model characterizing various parameters assessing the outcome after acetaminophen intoxication induced acute liver failure

PubMed Central

Thiel, Karolin; Klingert, Wilfried; Klingert, Kathrin; Morgalla, Matthias H; Schuhmann, Martin U; Leckie, Pamela; Sharifi, Yalda; Davies, Nathan A; Jalan, Rajiv; Peter, Andreas; Grasshoff, Christian; Königsrainer, Alfred; Schenk, Martin; Thiel, Christian

2017-01-01

AIM To investigate the changes of hemodynamic and laboratory parameters during the course of acute liver failure following acetaminophen overdose. METHODS Eight pigs underwent a midline laparotomy following jejunal catheter placement for further acetaminophen intoxication and positioning of a portal vein Doppler flow-probe. Acute liver failure was realized by intrajejunal acetaminophen administration in six animals, two animals were sham operated. All animals were invasively monitored and received standardized intensive care support throughout the study. Portal blood flow, hemodynamic and ventilation parameters were continuously recorded. Laboratory parameters were analysed every eight hours. Liver biopsies were sampled every 24 h following intoxication and upon autopsy. RESULTS Acute liver failure (ALF) occurred after 28 ± 5 h resulted in multiple organ failure and death despite maximal support after further 21 ± 1 h (study end). Portal blood flow (baseline 1100 ± 156 mL/min) increased to a maximum flow of 1873 ± 175 mL/min at manifestation of ALF, which was significantly elevated (P < 0.01). Immediately after peaking, portal flow declined rapidly to 283 ± 135 mL/min at study end. Thrombocyte values (baseline 307 × 103/µL ± 34 × 103/µL) of intoxicated animals declined slowly to values of 145 × 103/µL ± 46 × 103/µL when liver failure occurred. Subsequent appearance of severe thrombocytopenia in liver failure resulted in values of 11 × 103/µL ± 3 × 103/µL preceding fatality within few hours which was significant (P > 0.01). CONCLUSION Declining portal blood flow and subsequent severe thrombocytopenia after acetaminophen intoxication precede fatality in a porcine acute liver failure model. PMID:28321158

Meta-regression analysis of commensal and pathogenic Escherichia coli survival in soil and water.

PubMed

Franz, Eelco; Schijven, Jack; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria; Blaak, Hetty

2014-06-17

The extent to which pathogenic and commensal E. coli (respectively PEC and CEC) can survive, and which factors predominantly determine the rate of decline, are crucial issues from a public health point of view. The goal of this study was to provide a quantitative summary of the variability in E. coli survival in soil and water over a broad range of individual studies and to identify the most important sources of variability. To that end, a meta-regression analysis on available literature data was conducted. The considerable variation in reported decline rates indicated that the persistence of E. coli is not easily predictable. The meta-analysis demonstrated that for soil and water, the type of experiment (laboratory or field), the matrix subtype (type of water and soil), and temperature were the main factors included in the regression analysis. A higher average decline rate in soil of PEC compared with CEC was observed. The regression models explained at best 57% of the variation in decline rate in soil and 41% of the variation in decline rate in water. This indicates that additional factors, not included in the current meta-regression analysis, are of importance but rarely reported. More complete reporting of experimental conditions may allow future inference on the global effects of these variables on the decline rate of E. coli.

Economic development and family size.

PubMed

Rios, R J

1991-01-01

The demographic transition in Latin America has resulted in increased family size rather than the Western European model of reduced family size. In 1905, both fertility and mortality were high in Latin America, but mortality declined more rapidly in Latin America than in Europe. In 1905, the crude birth rate for 15 selected countries averaged 44/1000 population. Western fertility at a comparable transition point was much lower at 30/1000. Between 1905 and 1960, fertility declines were evident in Uruguay, Argentina, Cuba, and Chile. Between 1960 and 1985, fertility declines appeared in Costa Rica, Panama, Brazil, and Colombia. Fertility declines were smaller in the other Latin American countries. Crude birth rates declined markedly by 1985 but may overestimate fertility decline, which is more accurately measured by standardized birth rates. Fertility decline was evident in Argentina, Chile, and Costa Rica for standardized birth rates, survivorship ratio, and births surviving past the age of 15 years. Theoretically, families are expected to reduce family size when survivorship is assured; when mortality is 25%, only four children need be planned instead of six when mortality is 50%. A result of falling mortality is a cheaper cost of producing children, which may stimulate parents to raise bigger families. Western fertility decline has been attributed to mortality decline, urbanization, increased female labor force participation, rising wages, and more efficient contraception. Comparable economic development in Latin America has not resulted in large enough changes to encourage family size limitation. A table of fertility and economic indicators for selected countries in Latin America and Europe reflects the inverse relationship between income growth, urban growth, and growth in female educational status and fertility. The regression equation explains 60% of the variation in fertility rates among Latin American countries. Explanatory power increases to 75% when female high school enrollment is added to per capita gross national product. Fertility declines in Latin America in the future will be dependent on economic development, educational advancement for women, and a reduction in rural population.

Effects of a drag-reducing polyelectrolyte of microscopic linear dimension (Separan AP-273) on rat hemodynamics.

PubMed

Coleman, P B; Ottenbreit, B T; Polimeni, P I

1987-12-01

Separan AP-273, a polydisperse, high molecular weight (10(5)-10(7) dalton range), anionic polyacrylamide, demonstrates polymer drag reduction (Toms effect) in the flows of several substances including blood. That is, under appropriate conditions, pipe flow can be increased markedly for a given pressure gradient, sometimes threefold or more, by nanomolar concentrations of linear macropolymers. The effect of intact and degraded Separan was tested in the open-chest, anesthetized rat, and left ventricular and carotid pressures, aortic blood flow (electromagnetic flow probe on ascending aorta), and the electrocardiogram were recorded. The results indicate that aortic flow, which in control animals was about half the flow reported for conscious rats, increases markedly after injection of Separan. The effect on blood pressure after an initial fall was variable, but the slope of arterial diastolic pressure was consistently steepened. Electrocardiographic changes were unremarkable except for a slow decline in heart rate. Although secondary reflexes undoubtedly influenced the results, the primary mechanism of the polymer appears to involve a reduced resistance to flow. The results are compatible with the proposal that the Toms effect, or some variant of it, is operative in vivo under favorable conditions. If this view is correct, then Separan and two other chemically different macropolymers with similar hemodynamic effects and physical attributes, i.e., linearity and molecular lengths approaching 100 micron, might be prototypes of a novel category of cardiovascular drugs.

Aβ-related memory decline in APOE ε4 noncarriers: Implications for Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Lim, Yen Ying; Laws, Simon M; Villemagne, Victor L; Pietrzak, Robert H; Porter, Tenielle; Ames, David; Fowler, Christopher; Rainey-Smith, Stephanie; Snyder, Peter J; Martins, Ralph N; Salvado, Olivier; Bourgeat, Pierrick; Rowe, Christopher C; Masters, Colin L; Maruff, Paul

2016-04-26

As the absence of Aβ-related memory decline in APOE ε4 noncarriers may be due to the relative brevity of previous studies, we aimed to characterize Aβ-related cognitive decline over 72 months in APOE ε4 carriers and noncarriers who were cognitively normal (CN). CN older adults (n = 423) underwent Aβ imaging and APOE genotyping. Participants completed comprehensive neuropsychological testing at baseline 18-, 36-, 54-, and 72-month assessments. Relative to Aβ- CN ε4 noncarriers, both Aβ+ CN ε4 carriers and noncarriers showed significantly increased decline in measures of memory, language, and executive function as well as higher rates of progression to a clinical classification of mild cognitive impairment. Memory decline was greater in Aβ+ CN ε4 carriers than in Aβ+ CN ε4 noncarriers. No cognitive decline was evident in Aβ- CN ε4 carriers. In CN older adults, Aβ+ is associated with memory decline in ε4 noncarriers; however, the rate of this decline is much slower than that observed in ε4 carriers. These data indicate that the processes by which ε4 carriage increases the rate of Aβ-related cognitive decline occur in the preclinical stage of Alzheimer disease. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Change in physical mobility over 10 years in post-polio syndrome.

PubMed

Bickerstaffe, A; Beelen, A; Nollet, F

2015-03-01

Post-polio syndrome is characterised by progressive muscle weakness and other symptoms which can limit physical mobility. We assessed the rate of decline in mobility over 10 years in relation to strength decline; and investigated potential predictors for the rate of decline of walking capacity, a measure of mobility, in 48 patients with post-polio syndrome and proven quadriceps dysfunction at baseline. Average walking capacity and self-reported physical mobility declined over 10 years, by 6 and 14%, respectively. Concomitantly people lost an average of 15% of isometric quadriceps strength. Significantly more people used walking aids offering greater support at follow-up. Notably, there was much individual variation, with 18% of participants losing a substantial amount of walking capacity (27% decline) and concomitant self-reported physical mobility (38% decline). Loss of quadriceps strength only explained a small proportion of the variance of the decline in walking capacity (R = 11%) and the rate of decline could not be predicted from baseline values for strength, walking capacity, self-reported physical mobility or basic demographics. The individual variability, yet lack of predictive factors, underscores the need for personally tailored care based on actual functional decline in patients with post-polio syndrome. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Measles, mumps, and rubella antibody patterns of persistence and rate of decline following the second dose of the MMR vaccine.

PubMed

Seagle, Emma E; Bednarczyk, Robert A; Hill, Tenisha; Fiebelkorn, Amy Parker; Hickman, Carole J; Icenogle, Joseph P; Belongia, Edward A; McLean, Huong Q

2018-02-01

Antibodies to measles, mumps, and rubella decline 3% per year on average, and have a high degree of individual variation. Yet, individual variations and differences across antigens are not well understood. To better understand potential implications on individual and population susceptibility, we reanalyzed longitudinal data to identify patterns of seropositivity and persistence. Children vaccinated with the second dose of measles, mumps, rubella vaccine (MMR2) at 4-6 years of age were followed up to 12 years post-vaccination. The rates of antibody decline were assessed using regression models, accounting for differences between and within subjects. Most of the 302 participants were seropositive throughout follow-up (96% measles, 88% mumps, 79% rubella). The rate of antibody decline was associated with MMR2 response and baseline titer for measles and age at first dose of MMR (MMR1) for rubella. No demographic or clinical factors were associated with mumps rate of decline. One month post-MMR2, geometric mean titer (GMT) to measles was high (3892 mIU/mL), but declined on average 9.7% per year among those with the same baseline titer and <2-fold increase post-MMR2. Subjects with ≥2-fold experienced a slower decline (≤7.4%). GMT to rubella was 149 one month post-MMR2, declining 2.6% and 5.9% per year among those who received MMR1 at 12-15 months and >15 months, respectively. GMT to mumps one month post-MMR2 was 151, declining 9.2% per year. Only 14% of subjects had the same persistence trends for all antigens. The rate of antibody decay varied substantially among individuals and the 3 antigen groups. A fast rate of decline coupled with high variation was observed for mumps, yet no predictors were identified. Future research should focus on better understanding waning titers to mumps and its impacts on community protection and individual susceptibility, in light of recent outbreaks in vaccinated populations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeled intermittency risk for small streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Poff, N. LeRoy

2015-01-01

Longer, drier summers projected for arid and semi-arid regions of western North America under climate change are likely to have enormous consequences for water resources and river-dependent ecosystems. Many climate change scenarios for this region involve decreases in mean annual streamflow, late summer precipitation and late-summer streamflow in the coming decades. Intermittent streams are already common in this region, and it is likely that minimum flows will decrease and some perennial streams will shift to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in timing and magnitude of precipitation and runoff, combined with increases in temperature. To understand current intermittency among streams and analyze the potential for streams to shift from perennial to intermittent under a warmer climate, we analyzed historic flow records from streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Approximately two-thirds of 115 gaged stream reaches included in our analysis are currently perennial and the rest have some degree of intermittency. Dry years with combinations of high temperatures and low precipitation were associated with more zero-flow days. Mean annual flow was positively related to minimum flows, suggesting that potential future declines in mean annual flows will correspond with declines in minimum flows. The most important landscape variables for predicting low flow metrics were precipitation, percent snow, potential evapotranspiration, soils, and drainage area. Perennial streams in the UCRB that have high minimum-flow variability and low mean flows are likely to be most susceptible to increasing streamflow intermittency in the future.

Extension tectonics: The Neogene opening of the north-south trending basins of central Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCabe, Robert; Celaya, Michael; Cole, Jay; Han, Hyun-Chul; Ohnstad, Tiffany; Paijitprapapon, Vivat; Thitipawarn, Veeravat

1988-10-01

Paleomagnetic samples were collected from late Neogene basalt flows from Thailand. All of these flows are horizontal and are relatively unaltered in thin section. These rocks possess a stable magnetization which is believed to be primary. Samples from 48 lava flows were collected from sites located within the Khorat Plateau, the Chao Phraya-Phitsanulok Basin, and the mountainous terrane west of the Chao Phraya-Phitsanulok Basin. These data were combined with previously reported late Neogene data from five flows from western Thailand. Although the average inclination from the 53 sites is indistiguishable from the expected dipole inclination, the average declination has a net clockwise rotation of 13.5±5.8 from the geocentric dipole field. Furthermore, the mean declination values from the 29 flows from the Khorat Plateau are indistinguishable from the present dipole field direction (Dm = 4.3°±7.5°) and indistinguishable from the mean declination from 28 late Neogene volcanic flows from Vietnam. In contrast, the mean declinations from 24 flows collected from central and western Thailand are deflected significantly clockwise (Dm = 24.4°±7.7°) from the geocentric dipole field direction. The differential rotation between western and central Thailand versus the Khorat Plateau suggests that Indochina is composed of at least two structural blocks which underwent a different rotational history. These observations, when combined with geologic and geophysical data from the Chao Phraya-Phitsanulok Basin, Gulf of Thailand, and the intermontane basins of western Thailand, suggest that the rotations are recording a late Neogene phase of E-W extension of these basins. We suggest that the formation of these basins and the related basaltic volcanism developed in reponse to subduction of the Indian plate under western Burma. We envision the tectonics of this region is similar in style to the Basin and Range region of the western United States. Last, we have observed field relationships from some of the rhyolites located in the central basin. Although these rhyolites are reported to be Mesozoic or Paleozoic in age, our field observations and a K-Ar age date show that at least some of these rhyolites are younger than the basalts. We suggest that the rhyolites form a bimodal suite with the basaltic rocks which were erupted in the later stages of the extension.

Regional hydrology and simulation of deep ground-water flow in the Southeastern Coastal Plain aquifer system in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, R.A.; Pernik, Maribeth

1994-01-01

The Southeastern Coastal Plain aquifer system is a coastward-sloping, wedge-shaped sand and gravel reservoir exposed in outcrop to a humid climate and drained by an extensive surface-water network. Ground-water pumpage has increased to about 765 cubic feet per second since 1900, causing water-level declines of more than 150 feet in places, while base flow to major streams has decreased about 350 cubic feet per second. The water-level declines and adjustments in recharge and discharge are not expected to seriously restrict future ground-water development.

Water-level trends and potentiometric surfaces in the Nacatoch Aquifer in northeastern and southwestern Arkansas and in the Tokio Aquifer in southwestern Arkansas, 2014–15

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodgers, Kirk D.

2017-09-20

The Nacatoch Sand in northeastern and southwestern Arkansas and the Tokio Formation in southwestern Arkansas are sources of groundwater for agricultural, domestic, industrial, and public use. Water-level altitudes measured in 51 wells completed in the Nacatoch Sand and 42 wells completed in the Tokio Formation during 2014 and 2015 were used to create potentiometric-surface maps of the two areas. Aquifers in the Nacatoch Sand and Tokio Formation are hereafter referred to as the Nacatoch aquifer and the Tokio aquifer, respectively.Potentiometric surfaces show that groundwater in the Nacatoch aquifer flows southeast toward the Mississippi River in northeastern Arkansas. Groundwater flow direction is towards the south and southeast in Hempstead, Little River, and Nevada Counties in southwestern Arkansas. An apparent cone of depression exists in southern Clark County and likely alters groundwater flow from a regional direction toward the depression.In southwestern Arkansas, potentiometric surfaces indicate that groundwater flow in the Tokio aquifer is towards the city of Hope. Northwest of Hope, an apparent cone of depression exists. In southwestern Pike, northwestern Nevada, and northeastern Hempstead Counties, an area of artesian flow (water levels are at or above land surface) exists.Water-level changes in wells were identified using two methods: (1) linear regression analysis of hydrographs from select wells with a minimum of 20 years of water-level data, and (2) a direct comparison between water-level measurements from 2008 and 2014–15 at each well. Of the six hydrographs analyzed in the Nacatoch aquifer, four indicated a decline in water levels. Compared to 2008 measurements, the largest rise in water levels was 35.14 feet (ft) in a well in Clark County, whereas the largest decline was 14.76 ft in a well in Nevada County, both located in southwestern Arkansas.Of the four hydrographs analyzed in the Tokio aquifer, one indicated a decline in water levels, while the others remained relatively unchanged. Compared to 2008 measurements, the largest rise in water levels was 21.34 ft in Hempstead County, and the largest water-level decline was 39.37 ft in Clark County. Although changes in water levels since 2008 are spatially varied; long-term trends indicate an overall decline in water levels in both aquifers.

Scarcity of ecosystem services: an experimental manipulation of declining pollination rates and its economic consequences for agriculture.

PubMed

Sandhu, Harpinder; Waterhouse, Benjamin; Boyer, Stephane; Wratten, Steve

2016-01-01

Ecosystem services (ES) such as pollination are vital for the continuous supply of food to a growing human population, but the decline in populations of insect pollinators worldwide poses a threat to food and nutritional security. Using a pollinator (honeybee) exclusion approach, we evaluated the impact of pollinator scarcity on production in four brassica fields, two producing hybrid seeds and two producing open-pollinated ones. There was a clear reduction in seed yield as pollination rates declined. Open-pollinated crops produced significantly higher yields than did the hybrid ones at all pollination rates. The hybrid crops required at least 0.50 of background pollination rates to achieve maximum yield, whereas in open-pollinated crops, 0.25 pollination rates were necessary for maximum yield. The total estimated economic value of pollination services provided by honeybees to the agricultural industry in New Zealand is NZD $1.96 billion annually. This study indicates that loss of pollination services can result in significant declines in production and have serious implications for the market economy in New Zealand. Depending on the extent of honeybee population decline, and assuming that results in declining pollination services, the estimated economic loss to New Zealand agriculture could be in the range of NZD $295-728 million annually.

Scarcity of ecosystem services: an experimental manipulation of declining pollination rates and its economic consequences for agriculture

PubMed Central

Waterhouse, Benjamin; Wratten, Steve

2016-01-01

Ecosystem services (ES) such as pollination are vital for the continuous supply of food to a growing human population, but the decline in populations of insect pollinators worldwide poses a threat to food and nutritional security. Using a pollinator (honeybee) exclusion approach, we evaluated the impact of pollinator scarcity on production in four brassica fields, two producing hybrid seeds and two producing open-pollinated ones. There was a clear reduction in seed yield as pollination rates declined. Open-pollinated crops produced significantly higher yields than did the hybrid ones at all pollination rates. The hybrid crops required at least 0.50 of background pollination rates to achieve maximum yield, whereas in open-pollinated crops, 0.25 pollination rates were necessary for maximum yield. The total estimated economic value of pollination services provided by honeybees to the agricultural industry in New Zealand is NZD $1.96 billion annually. This study indicates that loss of pollination services can result in significant declines in production and have serious implications for the market economy in New Zealand. Depending on the extent of honeybee population decline, and assuming that results in declining pollination services, the estimated economic loss to New Zealand agriculture could be in the range of NZD $295–728 million annually. PMID:27441108

Preparing for Sea-level Rise: Conflicts and Opportunities in Coastal Wetlands Coexisting with Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, J. F.; Saco, P. M.; Sandi, S. G.; Saintilan, N.; Riccardi, G.

2017-12-01

Even though on a large scale the sustainability and resilience of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise depends on the slope of the landscape and a balance between the rates of soil accretion and the sea-level rise, local man-made flow disturbances can have comparable effects. Coastal infrastructure controlling flow in the wetlands can pose an additional constraint on the adaptive capacity of these ecosystems, but can also present opportunities for targeted flow management to increase their resilience. Coastal wetlands in SE Australia are heavily managed and typically present infrastructure including flow control devices. How these flow control structures are operated respond to different ecological conservation objectives (i.e. bird, frog or fish habitat) that can sometimes be mutually exclusive. For example, promoting mangrove establishment to enhance fish habitat results in saltmarsh decline thus affecting bird habitat. Moreover, sea-level rise will change hydraulic conditions in wetlands and may result in some flow control structures and strategies becoming obsolete or even counterproductive. In order to address these problems and in support of future management of flows in coastal wetlands, we have developed a predictive tool for long-term wetland evolution that incorporates the effects of infrastructure and other perturbations to the tidal flow within the wetland (i.e. vegetation resistance) and determines how these flow conditions affect vegetation establishment and survival. We use the model to support management and analyse different scenarios of sea-level rise and flow control measures aimed at preserving bird habitat. Our results show that sea-level rise affects the efficiency of management measures and in some cases may completely override their effect. It also shows the potential of targeted flow management to compensate for the effects of sea-level rise.

Predictive abilities of cardiovascular biomarkers to rapid decline of renal function in Chinese community-dwelling population: a 5-year prospective analysis.

PubMed

Fu, Shihui; Liu, Chunling; Luo, Leiming; Ye, Ping

2017-11-09

Predictive abilities of cardiovascular biomarkers to renal function decline are more significant in Chinese community-dwelling population without glomerular filtration rate (GFR) below 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 , and long-term prospective study is an optimal choice to explore this problem. Aim of this analysis was to observe this problem during the follow-up of 5 years. In a large medical check-up program in Beijing, there were 948 participants with renal function evaluated at baseline and follow-up of 5 years. Physical examinations were performed by well-trained physicians. Blood samples were analyzed by qualified technicians in central laboratory. Median rate of renal function decline was 1.46 (0.42-2.91) mL/min/1.73m 2 /year. Rapid decline of renal function had a prevalence of 23.5% (223 participants). Multivariate linear and Logistic regression analyses confirmed that age, sex, baseline GFR, homocysteine and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) had independently predictive abilities to renal function decline rate and rapid decline of renal function (p < 0.05 for all). High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), carotid femoral pulse wave velocity and central augmentation index had no statistically independent association with renal function decline rate and rapid decline of renal function (p > 0.05 for all). Homocysteine and NT-proBNP rather than hs-cTnT had independently predictive abilities to rapid decline of renal function in Chinese community-dwelling population without GFR below 60 ml/min/1.73m 2 . Baseline GFR was an independent factor predicting the rapid decline of renal function. Arterial stiffness and compliance had no independent effect on rapid decline of renal function. This analysis has a significant implication for public health, and changing the homocysteine and NT-proBNP levels might slow the rapid decline of renal function.

Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's disease: effects of gender, butyrylcholinesterase genotype and rivastigmine treatment

PubMed Central

Ferris, Steven; Nordberg, Agneta; Soininen, Hilkka; Darreh-Shori, Taher; Lane, Roger

2014-01-01

Objective Evaluate the influence of gender and butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) genotype on incidence of progression to AD, rate of cognitive and functional decline, and response to rivastigmine treatment in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) subjects. Methods This retrospective exploratory analysis from a 3–4 year, randomized, placebo-controlled study of rivastigmine in MCI subjects included participants who consented to pharmacogenetic testing. Results Of 1018 total patients, 490 (253 [52%] female) were successfully genotyped for BuChE. In subjects receiving placebo, the BuChE wt/wt genotype was associated with a statistically significantly higher rate of progression to AD and functional decline in women, compared with men with the BuChE wt/wt genotype. In subjects with a BuChE-K allele receiving placebo, incidence of progression to AD and rate of functional decline were not significantly different by gender, however cognitive decline was significantly faster in men. Statistically significant benefits of rivastigmine treatment on progression to AD, functional decline, ventricular volume expansion, whole brain atrophy and white matter loss were evident in female BuChE wt/wt. Conclusion Gender appears to differentially influence the type of decline in MCI subjects according to BuChE genotype, with more rapid progression of cognitive decline in male BuChE-K, and more rapid progression to AD and functional decline in female BuChE wt/wt. Cognitive decline in male BuChE-K and functional decline and progression to AD in female BuChE wt/wt were significantly attenuated by rivastigmine. Rivastigmine treatment also significantly reduced ventricular expansion, whole brain atrophy rate and white matter loss in female BuChE wt/wt, suggesting a possible disease-modifying effect. PMID:19617863

Stream seepage and groundwater levels, Wood River Valley, south-central Idaho, 2012-13

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartolino, James R.

2014-01-01

Stream discharge and water levels in wells were measured at multiple sites in the Wood River Valley, south-central Idaho, in August 2012, October 2012, and March 2013, as a component of data collection for a groundwater-flow model of the Wood River Valley aquifer system. This model is a cooperative and collaborative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Idaho Department of Water Resources. Stream-discharge measurements for determination of seepage were made during several days on three occasions: August 27–28, 2012, October 22–24, 2012, and March 27–28, 2013. Discharge measurements were made at 49 sites in August and October, and 51 sites in March, on the Big Wood River, Silver Creek, their tributaries, and nearby canals. The Big Wood River generally gains flow between the Big Wood River near Ketchum streamgage (13135500) and the Big Wood River at Hailey streamgage (13139510), and loses flow between the Hailey streamgage and the Big Wood River at Stanton Crossing near Bellevue streamgage (13140800). Shorter reaches within these segments may differ in the direction or magnitude of seepage or may be indeterminate because of measurement uncertainty. Additional reaches were measured on Silver Creek, the North Fork Big Wood River, Warm Springs Creek, Trail Creek, and the East Fork Big Wood River. Discharge measurements also were made on the Hiawatha, Cove, District 45, Glendale, and Bypass Canals, and smaller tributaries to the Big Wood River and Silver Creek. Water levels in 93 wells completed in the Wood River Valley aquifer system were measured during October 22–24, 2012; these wells are part of a network established by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2006. Maps of the October 2012 water-table altitude in the unconfined aquifer and the potentiometric-surface altitude of the confined aquifer have similar topology to those on maps of October 2006 conditions. Between October 2006 and October 2012, water-table altitude in the unconfined aquifer rose by as much as 1.86 feet in 6 wells and declined by as much as 14.28 feet in 77 wells; average decline was 2.9 feet. A map of changes in the water‑table altitude of the unconfined aquifer shows that the largest declines were in tributary canyons and in an area roughly between Baseline and Glendale Roads. From October 2006 to October 2012, the potentiometric-surface altitude in 10 wells completed in the confined aquifer declined between 0.12 and 20.50 feet; average decline was 6.8 feet. A map of changes in the potentiometric-surface altitude of the confined aquifer shows that the largest declines were in the southwestern part of the Bellevue fan. Reduced precipitation prior to the October 2012 water-level measurements likely is partially responsible for 2006–12 water-table declines in the unconfined aquifer; the relative contribution of precipitation deficit and groundwater withdrawals to the declines is not known. Although the confined aquifer may not receive direct recharge from precipitation or streams, groundwater withdrawal from the confined aquifer induces flow from the unconfined aquifer. Declines in the confined aquifer are likely due to groundwater withdrawals and declines in the water table of the unconfined aquifer. A statistical analysis of five long-term monitoring wells (three completed in the unconfined aquifer, one in the confined aquifer, and one outside the aquifer system boundary) showed statistically significant declining trends in four wells.

Hydrology of Cache Valley, Cache County, Utah, and adjacent part of Idaho, with emphasis on simulation of ground-water flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kariya, Kim A.; Roark, D. Michael; Hanson, Karen M.

1994-01-01

A hydrologic investigation of Cache Valley was done to better understand the ground-water system in unconsolidated basin-fill deposits and the interaction between ground water and surface water. Ground-water recharge occurs by infiltration of precipitation and unconsumed irrigation water, seepage from canals and streams, and subsurface inflow from adjacent consolidated rock and adjacent unconsolidated basin-fill deposit ground-water systems. Ground-water discharge occurs as seepage to streams and reservoirs, spring discharge, evapotranspiration, and withdrawal from wells.Water levels declined during 1984-90. Less-than-average precipitation during 1987-90 and increased pumping from irrigation and public-supply wells contributed to the declines.A ground-water-flow model was used to simulate flow in the unconsolidated basin-fill deposits. Data primarily from 1969 were used to calibrate the model to steady-state conditions. Transient-state calibration was done by simulating ground-water conditions on a yearly basis for 1982-90.A hypothetical simulation in which the dry conditions of 1990 were continued for 5 years projected an average lO-foot water-level decline between Richmond and Hyrum. When increased pumpage was simulated by adding three well fields, each pumping 10 cubic feet per second, in the Logan, Smithfield, and College Ward areas, water-level declines greater than 10 feet were projected in most of the southeastern part of the valley and discharge from springs and seepage to streams and reservoirs decreased.

Metabolic rates of benthic deep-sea decapod crustaceans decline with increasing depth primarily due to the decline in temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childress, J. J.; Cowles, D. L.; Favuzzi, J. A.; Mickel, T. J.

1990-06-01

The oxygen consumption rates of 11 species of benthic deep-sea decapod crustaceans were measured at a variety of temperatures to test the hypothesis that the metabolic rates of benthic crustaceans decline with increasing depth of occurrence only to the extent explained by the decline in temperature with depth. The species were captured at depths between 150 and 2000m off Southern California using an epibenthic beam trawl equipped with a thermally protecting cod-end to bring the animals to the surface uncontaminated by sediment and at the depth temperature. The data, combined with those for six species of shallower-living crustaceans from California waters, showed a significant decline in oxygen consumption rate with increased species' depths of occurrence, when the measurements were made at temperatures appropriate to each species' depth range. There was no significant relation between wet weight and depth of occurrence in these species. When the data were adjusted to 10°C using a moderate temperature effect factor (corresponding to Q10 values of 2-2.3 depending on the species and temperature range), the significant relationship between oxygen consumption rate and depth was lost, indicating that the observed decline with depth was due to the decline in temperature with depth. When the relationship between metabolic rate and depth of occurrence for the most active (carideans and penaeid) species were compared (ANCOVA) with that for the rest of the species, the active species had significantly higher rates. By combining this data set with data from the literature for a wide variety of shallow-living benthic decapod crustaceans, it was possible to create a data set of 35 species in which the effects of temperature, minimum depth of occurrence and body mass could be separated by multiple linear regression. This demonstrated highly significant effects of size and temperature, but no significant effect of depth for the entire data set and for the data set excluding penaeids and carideans. In contrast, the carideans showed a significant effect of depth on metabolic rate. This is discussed in terms of the adaptive and selective factors responsible for the well-known decline in metabolic rates of midwater crustaceans and fishes, an effect which does exceed the effect of temperature. It is suggested that the typical pattern for deeper living animals may be that metabolic rates on average vary as a function of depth due primarily to variation in temperature, except for the visually orienting pelagic groups (cephalopods, crustaceans and fishes). For those benthic forms which are particularly visually oriented and/or partially pelagic some significant depth-related decline in metabolism beyond that due to the decline in temperature is expected.

Effects of Hurricane Katrina on nursing facility resident mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline.

PubMed

Dosa, David; Feng, Zhanlian; Hyer, Kathy; Brown, Lisa M; Thomas, Kali; Mor, Vincent

2010-09-01

The study was designed to examine the 30- and 90-day mortality and hospitalization rates among nursing facility (NF) residents in the affected areas of Louisiana and Mississippi following Hurricane Katrina and to assess the rate of significant posthurricane functional decline. A secondary data analysis was conducted using Medicare claims merged with NF resident data from the Minimum Data Set. Thirty- and 90-day mortality and hospitalization rates for long-stay (>90 days) residents residing in 141 at-risk NFs during Hurricane Katrina were compared to rates for residents residing at the same facilities during the same time period in prior nonhurricane years (2003 and 2004). Functional decline was assessed as a 4+ drop in function using a 28-point Minimum Data Set Activities of Daily Living Scale. There were statistically significant differences (all P < .0001) in mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline among residents exposed to Hurricane Katrina. At 30 days, the mortality rate was 3.88% among the exposed cohort compared with 2.10% and 2.28% for residents in 2003 and 2004, respectively. The 90-day mortality rate was 9.27% compared with 6.71% and 6.31%, respectively. These mortality differences translated into an additional 148 deaths at 30 days and 230 deaths at 90 days. The 30-day hospitalization rate was 9.87% compared with 7.21% and 7.53%, respectively. The 90-day hospitalization rate was 20.39% compared with 18.61% and 17.82%, respectively. Finally, the rate of significant functional decline among survivors was 6.77% compared with 5.81% in 2003 and 5.10% in 2004. NF residents experienced a significant increase in mortality, hospitalization, and functional decline during Hurricane Katrina.

Declines in Employer-Sponsored Insurance between 2000 and 2008: Examining the Components of Coverage by Firm Size

PubMed Central

Vistnes, Jessica; Zawacki, Alice; Simon, Kosali; Taylor, Amy

2012-01-01

Objective To examine trends in employer-sponsored health insurance coverage rates and its associated components between 2000 and 2008, to provide a baseline for later evaluations of the Affordable Care Act, and to provide information to policy makers as they design the implementation details of the law. Data Sources Private sector employer data from the 2000, 2001, and 2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey-Insurance Component (MEPS-IC). Study Design We examine time trends in employer offer, eligibility, and take-up rates. We add a new dimension to the literature by examining dependent coverage and decomposing its trends. We investigate heterogeneity in trends by firm size. Data Collection The MEPS-IC is an annual survey, sponsored by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. The MEPS-IC obtains information on establishment characteristics, whether an establishment offers health insurance, and details on up to four plans. Principal Findings We find that coverage rates for workers declined in both small and large firms. In small firms, coverage declined due to a drop in both offer and take-up rates. In the largest firms, offer rates were stable and the decline was due to falling take-up rates. In addition, enrollment shifted toward single coverage and away from dependent coverage in both small and large firms. For small firms, this shift was due to declining offer and take-up rates for dependent coverage. In large firms, offers of dependent coverage were stable but take-up rates dropped. Within the category of dependent coverage, the availability of employee-plus-one plans increased in all firm size categories, but take-up rates for these plans declined in small firms. PMID:22250730

Flow behaviour, suspended sediment transport and transmission losses in a small (sub-bank-full) flow event in an Australian desert stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunkerley, David; Brown, Kate

1999-08-01

The behaviour of a discrete sub-bank-full flow event in a small desert stream in western NSW, Australia, is analysed from direct observation and sediment sampling during the flow event and from later channel surveys. The flow event, the result of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm, had a peak discharge of 9 m3/s at an upstream station. Transmission loss totally consumed the flow over the following 7·6 km. Suspended sediment concentration was highest at the flow front (not the discharge peak) and declined linearly with the log of time since passage of the flow front, regardless of discharge variation. The transmission loss responsible for the waning and eventual cessation of flow occurred at a mean rate of 13.2% per km. This is quite rapid, and is more than twice the corresponding figure for bank-full flows estimated by Dunkerley (1992) on the same stream system. It is proposed that transmission losses in ephemeral streams of the kind studied may be minimized in flows near bank-full stage, and be higher in both sub-bank-full and overbank flows. Factors contributing to enhanced flow loss in the sub-bank-full flow studied included abstractions of flow to pools, scour holes and other low points along the channel, and overflow abstractions into channel filaments that did not rejoin the main flow. On the other hand, losses were curtailed by the shallow depth of banks wetted and by extensive mud drapes that were set down over sand bars and other porous channel materials during the flow. Thus, in contrast with the relatively regular pattern of transmission loss inferred from large floods, losses from low flows exhibit marked spatial variability and depend to a considerable extent on streamwise variations in channel geometry, in addition to the depth and porosity of channel perimeter sediments.

The effect of illicit financial flows on time to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal in Sub-Saharan Africa: a quantitative analysis.

PubMed

O'Hare, Bernadette; Makuta, Innocent; Bar-Zeev, Naor; Chiwaula, Levison; Cobham, Alex

2014-04-01

This paper sets out to estimate the cost of illicit financial flows (IFF) in terms of the amount of time it could take to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) in 34 African countries. We have calculated the percentage increase in gross domestic product (GDP) if IFFs were curtailed using IFF/GDP ratios. We applied the income (GDP) elasticity of child mortality to the increase in GDP to estimate the reduction in time to reach the fourth MDG in 34 African countries. children aged under five years. 34 countries in SSA. Reduction in time to reach the first indicator of the fourth MDG, under-five mortality rate in the absence of IFF. We found that in the 34 SSA countries, six countries will achieve their fourth MDG target at the current rates of decline. In the absence of IFF, 16 countries would reach their fourth MDG target by 2015 and there would be large reductions for all other countries. This drain on development is facilitated by financial secrecy in other jurisdictions. Rich and poor countries alike must stem the haemorrhage of IFF by taking decisive steps towards improving financial transparency.

Experimental study on removal of NO using adsorption of activated carbon/reduction decomposition of microwave heating.

PubMed

Shuang-Chen, Ma; Yao, Juan-Juan; Gao, Li

2012-01-01

Experimental studies were carried out on flue gas denitrification using activated carbon irradiated by microwave. The effects of microwave irradiation power (reaction temperature), the flow rate of flue gas, the concentration of NO and the flue gas coexisting compositions on the adsorption property of activated carbon and denitrification efficiency were investigated. The results show that: the higher of microwave power, the higher of denitrification efficiency; denitrification efficiency would be greater than 99% and adsorption capacity of NO is relatively stable after seven times regeneration if the microwave power is more than 420 W; adsorption capacity of NO in activated carbon bed is 33.24 mg/g when the space velocity reaches 980 per hour; adsorption capacity declines with increasing of the flow rate of flue gas; the change in denitrification efficiency is not obvious with increasing oxygen content in the flue gas; and the maximum adsorption capacity of NO was observed when moisture in flue gas was about 5.88%. However, the removal efficiency of NO reduces with increasing moisture, and adsorption capacity and removal efficiency of NO reduce with increasing of SO2 concentration in the flue gas.

Differential rate in decline in ovarian reserve markers in women with polycystic ovary syndrome compared with control subjects: results of a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Ahmad, Asima K; Kao, Chia-Ning; Quinn, Molly; Lenhart, Nikolaus; Rosen, Mitchell; Cedars, Marcelle I; Huddleston, Heather

2018-03-01

To estimate rates of ovarian aging in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) subjects versus a community control population. Longitudinal. Tertiary academic center. PCOS subjects diagnosed according to the 2004 Rotterdam criteria were systematically enrolled in a PCOS cohort study. The comparison control subjects were from the Ovarian Aging study, a prospective longitudinal study of ovarian aging in healthy women with regular menstrual cycles. Clinical data collection over two study visits. Antral follicle count (AFC), ovarian volume (OV), and antimüllerian hormone level (AMH). PCOS subjects were found to have higher baseline values for all ovarian reserve markers compared with control subjects. Univariate models indicated that, compared with control subjects, PCOS patients experienced significantly faster rates of decline for both AFC and AMH. Change in OV did not differ significantly. To account for potential confounder effects, multiple analysis of covariance models were evaluated for the best fit, considering age, body mass index, and baseline ovarian reserve markers. Adjusted models demonstrated that PCOS patients do not experience a significant difference in AFC decline compared with control subjects, but they do experience a faster rate of decline in AMH (P<.01) and slower rate of decline in OV (P<.01). Ovarian aging in PCOS is characterized by a more rapid decline in AMH and a slower decline in OV compared with control subjects. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population growth, agrarian peasant economy and environmental degradation in Tanzania.

PubMed

Madulu, N F

1995-03-01

Population strategies to relieve the density pressures on land and resources in Tanzania have not considered the basic causes of population growth. Resettlement results in the same environmental degradation as in the original settlement. There should be a reduction in the population growth and planning of proper land use and resource exploitation before resettlement. Rural development must include a decline in the dependency on subsistence agriculture. Population in Tanzania increased by 213% during 1948-88. An absolute increase in population size during 1978-88 is recorded despite a slight decline in the rate of growth. Death rates declined, but birth rates were relatively stable at around 50 per 1000 population. Regions with the highest growth rates were Dar es Salaam (4.8%), Rukwa (4.3%), Arusha (3.8%), Mbeya (3.1%), and Ruvuma (3.2%). The regions with the lowest rates were Tanga and Kilimanjaro (2.1%), Coast (2.1%), Lindi (2%), and Mtwara (1.4%). Low growth rates are attributed to low fertility and high infertility. Other factors affecting high growth rates are culture, rates of natural increase, intensity of internal and international migration, climatic conditions, and availability of resources. In 1988 46% of the population was under 15 years old. Per capita land availability declined from 11.8 hectares in 1948 to 3.8 hectares in 1988. The number of landless peasants increased. Productivity declined, and distances to farms increased. The total fertility rate was 6.5 children per woman in 1988 and 6.1 during 1991-92. Slight declines were apparent in the crude birth rate also. High fertility was a response to universal marriage, low contraceptive use (7% using modern methods during 1991-92), declining lactation periods, high mortality rates, and old traditions favoring large families. Children were used extensively in time-consuming and labor-intensive activities, such as fetching water. The mean number of children ever born was higher among women with 1-4 years of schooling compared to women with no formal education and women with 5 or more years of education. Population growth contributes to deforestation, soil erosion, desertification, famine, drought, flooding, and demand for firewood.

Contaminant Dynamics and Trends in Hyperalkaline Urban Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, Alex; Mayes, William

2015-04-01

Streams in post-industrial urban areas can have multiple contemporary and historic pressures impacting upon their chemical and ecological status. This paper presents analysis of long term data series (up to 36 years in length) from two small streams in northern England (catchment areas 0.5-0.6km2). Around 3.5 million m3 of steel making slags and other wastes were deposited in the headwater areas of the Howden Burn and Dene Burn in northeast England up to the closure of the workings in the early 1980s. This has led to streams draining from the former workings which have a hyperalkaline ambient pH (mean of 10.3 in both streams), elevated alkalinity (up to 487 mg/L as CaCO3) from leaching of lime and other calcium oxides / silicates within the slag, and enrichment of some trace elements (e.g. aluminium (Al), lithium (Li) and zinc (Zn)) including those which form oxyanions mobile at high pH such as vanadium (V). The high ionic strength of the waters and calcium enrichment also leads to waters highly supersaturated with calcium carbonate. Trace contaminant concentrations are strongly positively correlated, and concentrations generally diminish with increased flow rate suggesting the key source of metals in the system is the highly alkaline groundwater draining from the slag mounds. Some contaminants (notably Cr and ammonium) increase with high flow suggesting sources related to urban runoff and drainage from combined sewer overflows into one of the catchments. Loading estimates instream show that many of the contaminants (e.g. Al, V and Zn) are rapidly attenuated in secondary calcium carbonate-dominated deposits that precipitate vigorously on the streambeds with rates of up to 250 g CaCO3/m2/day. These secondary sinks limit the mobility of many contaminants in the water column, while concentrations in secondary deposits are relatively low given the rapid rates at which Ca is also attenuated. Long-term trend analysis showed modest declines in calcium and alkalinity over the monitoring period and these are not accompanied by significant declines in water pH. If the monotonic trends of decline in alkalinity and calcium continue in the largest of the receiving streams, it will be in the region of 50-80 years before calcite precipitation would be expected to be close to baseline levels, where ecological impacts would be negligible. The data show the value of long-term water quality datasets in managing post-industrial catchments where there may be multiple pressures on water quality.

Trajectories of impairment in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: Insights from the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials cohort.

PubMed

Thakore, Nimish J; Lapin, Brittany R; Pioro, Erik P

2018-06-01

Rate of decline of the Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale-Revised (ALSFRS-R) score is a common outcome measure and a powerful predictor of mortality in ALS. Observed rate of decline (postslope) of ALSFRS-R, its linearity, and its relationship to decline at first visit (preslope) were examined in the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials cohort by using longitudinal mixed effects models. Mean ALSFRS-R postslope in 3,367 patients was -0.99 points/month. Preslope and postslope were correlated and had powerful effects on survival. ALSFRS-R trajectories were slightly accelerated overall, but slope and direction/degree of curvature varied. Subscore decline was sequential by site of onset. Respiratory subscore decline was the least steep. Variable curvilinearity of ALSFRS-R trajectories confounds interpretation in clinical studies that assume linear decline. Subscore trajectories recapitulate phenotypic diversity and topographical progression of ALS. ALSFRS-R is better used as a multidimensional measure. Muscle Nerve 57: 937-945, 2018. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Aquifer geometry, lithology, and water levels in the Anza–Terwilliger area—2013, Riverside and San Diego Counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Landon, Matthew K.; Morita, Andrew Y.; Nawikas, Joseph M.; Christensen, Allen H.; Faunt, Claudia C.; Langenheim, Victoria E.

2015-11-24

On the basis of data from 33 wells, water levels mostly declined between the fall of 2006 and the fall of 2013; the median decline was 5.1 feet during this period, for a median rate of decline of about 0.7 feet/year. Based on data from 40 wells, water-level changes between fall 2004 and fall 2013 were variable in magnitude and trend, but had a median decline of 2.4 feet and a median rate of decline of about 0.3 feet/ year. These differences in apparent rates of groundwater-level change highlight the value of ongoing water-level measurements to distinguish decadal, or longer term, trends in groundwater storage often associated with climatic variability and trends. Fifty-four long-term hydrographs indicated the sensitivity of groundwater levels to climatic conditions; they also showed a general decline in water levels across the study area since 1986 and, in some cases, dating back to the 1950s.

Adjustment, social sectors, and demographic change in Sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Ekouevi, K; Adepoju, A

1995-01-01

This discussion concludes that the economic crises of the 1980s resulted in a halt to the social and economic development of sub-Saharan Africa. Employment, health, and education sectors all deteriorated under structural adjustment programs (SAPs) and poor economic performance. SAPs are considered inadequate solutions to long-term problems. Economic crises were found to affect countries differently in their demographic impact. Delayed demographic transition occurred both through economic development as a prerequisite and as a result of poor economic development. Case studies of each country are considered the appropriate geographic unit of analysis of demographic change rather than regional or comparative studies. The economic crises in sub-Saharan Africa occurred due to both external (commodity prices, high real interest rates, and decreasing net capital flows) and internal distortions (strategies of development such as import substitution, neglect of the agricultural sector, and government control of prices and trade). The unfavorable external context reduced export prices and earnings while increasing the costs of imports. Internal controls were detrimental to farmers. During the 1970s and 1980s African countries experienced declines in both the volume and value of exports, increases in import volume, and imbalances in the balance of payments. Large domestic borrowing and foreign borrowing was done by governments, which was at the expense of the private sector. Economic management and corruption were rampant. SAPs restrained demand, reduced public expenditures, adjusted exchange rates, contracted the size of the public sector, liberalized trade, deregulated the interest rate, stimulated domestic production, and used market forces for balancing optimum allocation of resources. SAPs were the fix for trade imbalances and government debt. Development was slowed or stopped. During 1980-87 spending on health care, education, and infrastructure was drastically reduced. These already weak sectors were further weakened. Inflation rose. Public sector employment was reduced. Wages declined, which resulted in a massive demoralization, unemployment, and poverty. Manpower development was threatened by declines in education.

Leukocyte Telomere Length in Alzheimer's Disease Patients with a Different Rate of Progression.

PubMed

Tedone, Enzo; Arosio, Beatrice; Colombo, Federico; Ferri, Evelyn; Asselineau, Delphine; Piette, Francois; Gussago, Cristina; Belmin, Joel; Pariel, Sylvie; Benlhassan, Khadija; Casati, Martina; Bornand, Anne; Rossi, Paolo Dionigi; Mazzola, Paolo; Annoni, Giorgio; Doulazmi, Mohamed; Mariani, Jean; Porretti, Laura; Bray, Dorothy H; Mari, Daniela

2015-01-01

Age and short leukocyte telomeres have been associated with a higher risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Inflammation is involved in AD and it is suggested that anti-inflammatory interleukin-10 (IL-10) may partly antagonize these processes. The aim is to correlate telomere length (TL) in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from patients with AD to disease progression rate. Moreover, we evaluated whether TL was associated with IL-10 production by unstimulated or amyloid-β (Aβ)-stimulated PBMC. We enrolled 31 late-onset AD and 20 age-matched healthy elderly (HE). After a two-year follow-up period, patients were retrospectively evaluated as slow-progressing (ADS) (Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) decline over the two years of follow-up ≤3 points) or fast progressing AD (ADF) (MMSE decline ≥5 points). TL was measured by flow cytometry and in vitro IL-10 production by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. TL (mean±SD) for HE, ADS, and ADF was 2.3±0.1, 2.0±0.1, and 2.5±0.1 Kb, respectively. ADS showed a shorter TL compared to HE (p = 0.034) and to ADF (p = 0.005). MMSE decline correlated with TL in AD (R2 = 0.284; p = 0.008). We found a significant difference in IL-10 production between unstimulated and Aβ-stimulated PBMC from ADS (40.7±13.7 versus 59.0±27.0; p = 0.004) but not from ADF (39.7±14.4 versus 42.2±22.4). HE showed a trend toward significance (47.1±25.4 versus 55.3±27.9; p = 0.10). PBMC from ADF may be characterized by an impaired response induced by Aβ and by a reduced proliferative response responsible for the longer telomeres. TL might be a contributing factor in predicting the rate of AD progression.

Births to teenagers in the United States, 1940-2000.

PubMed

Ventura, S J; Mathews, T J; Hamilton, B E

2001-09-25

This report presents trends in national birth rates for teenagers, with particular focus on the decade of the 1990s. The percent change in rates for 1991-2000 is presented for the United States, and the change for 1991-99 is presented for States. Tabular and graphical descriptions of the trends in teenage birth rates for the Nation and each State, by age group, race, and Hispanic origin, are discussed. Birth rates for teenagers 15-19 years generally declined in the United States since the late 1950s, except for a brief, but steep, upward climb in the late 1980s until 1991. The 2000 rate (49 births per 1,000) is about half the peak rate recorded in 1957 (96 per 1,000). Still the U.S. rate is considerably higher than rates for other developed countries. During the 1990s rate declines were especially large for black teenagers. State-specific rates fell significantly in all States for ages 15-19 and 15-17 years, and in all but three States for ages 18-19 years. Overall the range of decline in State rates for ages 15-19 years was 11 to 36 percent. For teenagers 15-17 years, the range of decline by State was 13 to 43 percent. Reductions by State were largest for black teenagers 15-19 years, with rates falling 40 percent or more in seven States. The factors accounting for these declines include decreased sexual activity reflecting changing attitudes towards premarital sex, increases in condom use, and adoption of newly available hormonal contraception, implants, and injectables.

Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

PubMed

Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

1993-07-01

Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

Characteristics of the population below the poverty level: 1984.

PubMed

Mcneil, J M

1986-06-01

This report presents detailed social and economic characteristics of the US population below the poverty level in 1984 based on the March 1985 Current Population Survey (CPS). Poverty data are cross-classified by such characteristics as race, family relationship, type of residence, education, work experience, and type of income received. The average poverty threshold for a family of 4 was $10,609 in 1984, compared with $10,178 in 1983. Reflecting the general improvement in the economy, the number of persons below the poverty level declined from 35.3 million in 1983 to 33.7 million in 1984. During the same period, the poverty rate fell from 15.2 to 14.4%. The decline in poverty was the 1st statistically significant decline since 1975-1976. The number of persons in poverty in 1977 was about the same as in 1976, but from 1978 to 1983, the number of poor persons increased from 24.5 to 35.3 million. The poverty rate declined for both whites and blacks between 1983 and 1984. The rate for whites dropped from 12.1 to 11.5%, and the rate for blacks fell from 35.7 to 33.8%. No statistically significant changes were recorded in the number or percentage of Spanish-origin persons in poverty. There was some evidence of a decline in the poverty rate among white children under 18 years old, but there were no significant changes in the rate among black or Spanish-origin children. Between 1983 and 1984, the total number of poor families declined as did the number of poor married-couple families. Among the 4 major regions, both the number of persons below the poverty level and the poverty rate declined in the South and West regions, while the Northeast and Midwest regions did not exprience any significant changes. The poverty rate for the South was 16.2%, higher than that of any other region.

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change [includes Supporting Information

Treesearch

Seth J. Wenger; Daniel J. Isaak; Charlie Luce; Helen M. Neville; Kurt D. Fausch; Jason B. Dunham; Daniel C. Dauwalter; Michael K. Young; Marketa M. Elsner; Bruce E. Rieman; Alan F. Hamlet; Jack E. Williams

2011-01-01

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout...

Report to the nation finds continuing declines in cancer death rates

Cancer.gov

Death rates from all cancers combined for men, women, and children continued to decline in the United States between 2004 and 2008, according to the Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975-2008. The overall rate of new cancer diagnoses,

Heterogeneity in Rate of Decline in Grip, Hip, and Knee Strength and the Risk of All-Cause Mortality: The Women’s Health and Aging Study II

PubMed Central

Xue, Qian-Li; Beamer, Brock A.; Chaves, Paulo H.M.; Guralnik, Jack M.; Fried, Linda P.

2010-01-01

OBJECTIVES To assess the relationship between rate of change in muscle strength and all-cause mortality. DESIGN A prospective observational study of the causes and course of physical disability. SETTING Twelve contiguous ZIP code areas in Baltimore, Maryland. PARTICIPANTS Three hundred and seven community-dwelling women aged 70–79 years at study baseline. MEASUREMENTS The outcome is all-cause mortality (1994–2009); predictors include up to seven repeated measurements of handgrip, knee extension, and hip flexion strength, with a median follow-up time of 9 years. Demographic factors, body mass index, smoking status, number of chronic diseases, depressive symptoms, physical activity, Interlukin-6, and albumin were assessed at baseline and included as confounders. The associations between declining muscle strength and mortality were assessed using a joint longitudinal and survival model.. RESULTS Grip and hip strength declined an average of 1.10 and 1.31 kg per year between age 70 and 75and 0.50 and 0.39 kg/year thereafter, respectively; knee strength declined at a constant rate of 0.57 kg/year. Faster rates of decline in grip and hip strength, but not knee strength, independently predicted of mortality after accounting for their baseline levels and potential confounders (Hazard Ratio (HR)=1.33 (95% confidence interval (CI)=1.06–1.67), 1.14 (CI=0.91–1.41), and 2.62 (CI=1.43–4.78) for every 0.5 standard deviation increase in rate of decline in grip, knee, and hip strength, respectively. CONCLUSION Monitoring the rate of decline in grip and hip flexion strength in addition to the absolute levels may greatly improve the identification of women most at risk of dying. PMID:21054287

Change in employment status of 5-year cancer survivors.

PubMed

Torp, Steffen; Nielsen, Roy A; Fosså, Sophie D; Gudbergsson, Saevar B; Dahl, Alv A

2013-02-01

To follow the employment status of 5-year cancer survivors for 5 years after diagnosis with their first lifetime invasive cancer and to identify socio-demographic, work-related and cancer-related predictors of employment status after 5 years. This prospective registry study concerned all 3278 people in Norway (18-61 years old) diagnosed with their first lifetime invasive cancer in 1999 and alive in 2004 and a cancer-free control group (n = 6368) matched by sex, age, educational level and employment status in 1998. The employment rate among male cancer survivors declined steadily every year, from 94% the year before diagnosis (1998) to 77% 5 years after diagnosis (2004). This change did not differ significantly from that of male controls. The employment rate of female survivors also declined steadily, from 87% (1998) to 69% (2004). This decline was greater than that among female controls, and in 2004 survivors had a significantly lower employment rate. For both men and women, the significant pre-diagnosis predictors of being employed in 2004 concerned higher socio-economic position. For both sexes, lung cancer survivors had the highest decline in employment rate, and male skin cancer survivors had a lower decline in employment rate than controls. Socio-demographic and work-related factors explained more of the variance in employment status than did cancer diagnosis. The employment rate among 5-year cancer survivors did not change significantly except for female survivors. Low socio-economic position is a risk factor for decline in employment rate and should be focused on to prevent cancer-related inequity.

Racial and Residential Differences in U.S. Infant Death Rates: A Temporal Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Nan E.; Zaki, Khalida P.

1988-01-01

Compares annual rates of neonatal, postneonatal mortality to annual rates of low birth weight, 1963-1982. Shows that same level of decline in incidence of low birth weight is associated with greater decline in mortality rates of non-White than White infants and for nonmetro than metro infants. Contains 15 references. (Author/DHP)

Population Group Abortion Rates and Lifetime Incidence of Abortion: United States, 2008-2014.

PubMed

Jones, Rachel K; Jerman, Jenna

2017-12-01

To assess the prevalence of abortion among population groups and changes in rates between 2008 and 2014. We used secondary data from the Abortion Patient Survey, the American Community Survey, and the National Survey of Family Growth to estimate abortion rates. We used information from the Abortion Patient Survey to estimate the lifetime incidence of abortion. Between 2008 and 2014, the abortion rate declined 25%, from 19.4 to 14.6 per 1000 women aged 15 to 44 years. The abortion rate for adolescents aged 15 to 19 years declined 46%, the largest of any group. Abortion rates declined for all racial and ethnic groups but were larger for non-White women than for non-Hispanic White women. Although the abortion rate decreased 26% for women with incomes less than 100% of the federal poverty level, this population had the highest abortion rate of all the groups examined: 36.6. If the 2014 age-specific abortion rates prevail, 24% of women aged 15 to 44 years in that year will have an abortion by age 45 years. The decline in abortion was not uniform across all population groups.

Declining death rates from hyperglycemic crisis among adults with diabetes, U.S., 1985-2002.

PubMed

Wang, Jing; Williams, Desmond E; Narayan, K M Venkat; Geiss, Linda S

2006-09-01

To examine trends in death rates for hyperglycemic crisis (diabetic ketoacidosis or hyperglycemic hyperosmolar state) among adults with diabetes in the U.S. from 1985 to 2002. Deaths with hyperglycemic crisis as the underlying cause were identified from national mortality data. Death rates were calculated using estimates of adults with diabetes from the National Health Interview Survey as the denominator and age adjusted to the 2000 U.S. population. The trends from 1985 to 2002 were tested using joinpoint regression analysis. Deaths due to hyperglycemic crisis dropped from 2,989 in 1985 to 2,459 in 2002. During the time period, age-adjusted death rates decreased from 42.4 to 23.8 per 100,000 adults with diabetes (4.4% decrease per year, P for trend <0.01). Death rates declined in all age-groups, with the greatest decrease occurring among individuals aged > or =65 years. Age-adjusted death rates fell for all race-sex subgroups, with black men experiencing the smallest decline. About one-fifth of deaths occurred at home or on arrival at the hospital, and the death rates for hyperglycemic crisis occurring at these places declined only modestly over time (2.1% decrease per year, P for trend = 0.049). Overall death rates due to hyperglycemic crisis among adults with diabetes have declined in the U.S. However, scope for further improvement remains, especially to further reduce death rates among black men and to prevent deaths occurring at home.

Does increasing daylength control seasonal changes in clutch sizes of Northern Pintails (Anas acuta)?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krapu, G.L.; Sargeant, G.A.; Perkins, A.E.H.

2002-01-01

We evaluated spatiotemporal variation in clutch sizes of Northern Pintails (pintails; Anas acuta) nesting in California (1985 to 1996), North Dakota (1982 to 1985), Saskatchewan (1982 to 1985) and Alaska (1991 to 1993) to determine whether seasonal declines in clutch size varied in ways that were consistent with a controlling influence of increasing day length. Pintails began nesting in mid-March in California, mid-April in North Dakota and Saskatchewan, and mid-May in Alaska. Observed durations of nesting were 70 ± 2.6 days (SE) in California, 60 ± 6.3 days in North Dakota, 66 ± 1.3 days in Saskatchewan, and 42 ± 0.7 days in Alaska. Annual differences were the principal source of variation in mean clutch sizes (σ̂Y2 = 0.15, SE = 0.049), which varied little among study locations (σ̂A2 = 0.002, SE = 0.013). Predicted rates of seasonal decline in clutch sizes increased with latitude early in the nesting season, but declined as the nesting season progressed, except in California. Rates of decline in clutch sizes thus were not directly related to rates of increase in day length. Predicted declines in numbers of eggs per clutch over the nesting season were similar for all four locations (range, 3.05–3.12) despite wide variation in durations of nesting. Evidence suggests that reduced nutrient availability during nesting contributes to a higher rate of decline in clutch sizes in Alaska than in temperate regions. Pintails that nest early lay large initial clutches, but thereafter clutch sizes decline rapidly and breeding terminates early. This reproductive strategy is adaptive because young that hatch earliest exhibit the highest survival rates; however, the conversion of grassland to cropland on the primary prairie breeding grounds has reduced hatching rates of clutches laid early in the nesting season. Under these conditions, the limited capacity to renest in late spring on their prairie breeding grounds probably has contributed to Pintail population declines.

Single neuropsychological test scores associated with rate of cognitive decline in early Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

Parikh, Mili; Hynan, Linda S; Weiner, Myron F; Lacritz, Laura; Ringe, Wendy; Cullum, C Munro

2014-01-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) characteristically begins with episodic memory impairment followed by other cognitive deficits; however, the course of illness varies, with substantial differences in the rate of cognitive decline. For research and clinical purposes it would be useful to distinguish between persons who will progress slowly from persons who will progress at an average or faster rate. Our objective was to use neurocognitive performance features and disease-specific and health information to determine a predictive model for the rate of cognitive decline in participants with mild AD. We reviewed the records of a series of 96 consecutive participants with mild AD from 1995 to 2011 who had been administered selected neurocognitive tests and clinical measures. Based on Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) of functional and cognitive decline over 2 years, participants were classified as Faster (n = 45) or Slower (n = 51) Progressors. Stepwise logistic regression analyses using neurocognitive performance features, disease-specific, health, and demographic variables were performed. Neuropsychological scores that distinguished Faster from Slower Progressors included Trail Making Test - A, Digit Symbol, and California Verbal Learning Test (CVLT) Total Learned and Primacy Recall. No disease-specific, health, or demographic variable predicted rate of progression; however, history of heart disease showed a trend. Among the neuropsychological variables, Trail Making Test - A best distinguished Faster from Slower Progressors, with an overall accuracy of 68%. In an omnibus model including neuropsychological, disease-specific, health, and demographic variables, only Trail Making Test - A distinguished between groups. Several neuropsychological performance features were associated with the rate of cognitive decline in mild AD, with baseline Trail Making Test - A performance best separating those who declined at an average or faster rate from those who showed slower progression.

Effects of High-Flow Experiments from Glen Canyon Dam on Abundance, Growth, and Survival Rates of Early Life Stages of Rainbow Trout in the Lees Ferry Reach of the Colorado River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Kaplinski, Matthew; Melis, Theodore S.

2010-01-01

High-flow experiments (HFEs) from Glen Canyon Dam are primarily intended to conserve fine sediment and improve habitat conditions for native fish in the Colorado River as it flows through Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. These experimental flows also have the potential to affect the rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) population in the Lees Ferry tailwater reach immediately below the dam, which supports a highly valued recreational fishery and likely influences the abundance of rainbow trout in Grand Canyon. Understanding how flow regimes affect the survival and growth of juvenile rainbow trout is critical to interpreting trends in adult abundance. This study reports on the effects of HFEs in 2004 and 2008 on early life stages of rainbow trout in the Lees Ferry reach on the basis of monthly sampling of redds (egg nests) and the abundance of the age-0 trout (fertilization to about 1 to 2 months from emergence) and their growth during a 7-year period between 2003 and 2009. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that the March 2008 HFE resulted in a large increase in early survival rates of age-0 trout because of an improvement in habitat conditions. A stock-recruitment analysis demonstrated that age-0 abundance in July 2008 was more than fourfold higher than expected, given the number of viable eggs that produced these fish. A hatch-date analysis showed that early survival rates were much higher for cohorts that hatched about 1 month after the 2008 HFE (about April 15, 2008) relative to those fish that hatched before this date. These cohorts, fertilized after the 2008 HFE, would have emerged into a benthic invertebrate community that had recovered, and was possibly enhanced by, the HFE. Interannual differences in growth of age-0 trout, determined on the basis of otolith microstructure, support this hypothesis. Growth rates in the summer and fall of 2008 (0.44 mm/day) were virtually the same as in 2006 (0.46 mm/day), the highest recorded during 6 years, even though abundance was eightfold greater in 2008. We speculate that the 60-hour-long 2008 HFE (with peak magnitude about twice that of the annual peak flow during the previous 4 years) increased interstitial spaces in the gravel bed substrate and food availability or quality, leading to higher early survival of recently emerged trout and better growth of these fish through summer and fall. Abundance in 2009 was more than twofold higher than expected, given the estimated number of viable eggs deposited in that year, perhaps indicating that the effect of the 2008 HFE on early life stages was somewhat persistent. In a 3-week interval that spanned the November 2004 HFE, abundance of age-0 trout that were approximately 7 months old from hatch experienced about a threefold decline, compared to the approximately twofold decrease observed between November and December 2008. Abundance of age-0 trout that were approximately 10 months old from hatch was very similar across sampling trips that spanned the March 2008 HFE. It is uncertain whether the decline in abundance after the November 2004 HFE was the result of higher flow-induced mortality or higher flow-induced downstream dispersal. A focused monitoring effort in Marble Canyon (the reach immediately downstream of the Lees Ferry tailwater) before and after future HFEs is recommended to resolve this uncertainty. Relatively detailed monitoring of early life stages-such as the program described in this study-is essential to establish linkages between Glen Canyon Dam operations, or possibly other factors, and trends in the abundance of important nonnative and native fish populations living downstream within Grand Canyon National Park.

Multi-decadal Decline of Southeast United States Streamflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tootle, G. A.; Lakshmi, V.; Therrell, M.; Huffaker, R.; Elliott, E. A.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented population growth combined with environmental and energy demands have led to water conflict in the Southeastern United States. The states of Florida, Georgia and Alabama have recently engaged in litigation on minimum in-stream flows to maintain ecosystems, fisheries and energy demands while satisfying a growing thirst in metropolitan Atlanta. A study of Southeastern United States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee) streamflow identified a declining pattern of flow over the past 25 years with increased dry periods being observed in the last decade. When evaluating calendar year streamflow for (56) unimpaired streamflow stations, a robust period of streamflow in the 1970's was followed by a consistent decline in streamflow from 1990 to present. In evaluating 20-year, 10-year and 5-year time periods of annual streamflow volume, the past decade reveals historic lows for each of these periods. When evaluating the influence of high frequency (e.g., El Nino-Southern Oscillation - ENSO) and low frequency (e.g., Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation - AMO) climatic phenomenon, the shift of the AMO from a cold phase to a warm phase in the 1990's combined with multiple La Nina events may be associated with the streamflow decline.

Potentiometric surfaces, summer 2013 and winter 2015, and select hydrographs for the Southern High Plains aquifer, Cannon Air Force Base, Curry County, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collison, Jake

2016-04-07

Cannon Air Force Base (Cannon AFB) is located in the High Plains physiographic region of east-central New Mexico, about 5 miles west of Clovis, New Mexico. The area surrounding Cannon AFB is primarily used for agriculture, including irrigated cropland and dairies. The Southern High Plains aquifer is the principal source of water for Cannon AFB, for the nearby town of Clovis, and for local agriculture and dairies. The Southern High Plains aquifer in the vicinity of Cannon AFB consists of three subsurface geological formations: the Chinle Formation of Triassic age, the Ogallala Formation of Tertiary age, and the Blackwater Draw Formation of Quaternary age. The Ogallala Formation is the main water-yielding formation of the Southern High Plains aquifer. Groundwater-supplied, center-pivot irrigation dominates pumping from the Southern High Plains aquifer in the area surrounding Cannon AFB, where the irrigation season typically extends from early March through October. The U.S. Geological Survey has been monitoring groundwater levels in the vicinity of Cannon AFB since 1954 and has developed general potentiometric-surface maps that show groundwater flow from northwest to southeast in the study area. While previous potentiometric-surface maps show the general direction of groundwater flow, a denser well network is needed to show details of groundwater flow at a local scale. Groundwater levels were measured in 93 wells during summer 2013 and 100 wells during winter 2015.The summer and winter potentiometric-surface maps display the presence of what is interpreted to be a groundwater trough trending from the northwest to the southeast through the study area. This groundwater trough may be the hydraulic expression of a Tertiary-age paleochannel. Groundwater north of the trough flows in a southerly direction into the trough, and groundwater south of the trough flows in an easterly direction into the trough.During the 18-month period between summer 2013 and winter 2015, changes in groundwater levels ranged from a rise of 10.0 to a decline of 3.8 feet. The regions to the north and south of the groundwater trough contained the majority of the rises in groundwater levels, whereas the regions within the trough contained the majority of the declines in groundwater levels. In contrast, the long-term groundwater-level trend in wells with 20 to 60 years of record is a steady decline in average annual water levels, with declines ranging from 0.41 to 2.81 feet per year. Overall, the northwestern part of the study area exhibits the smallest average annual declines, while the southeastern part of the study area exhibits the largest average annual declines.

Measuring maximum and standard metabolic rates using intermittent-flow respirometry: a student laboratory investigation of aerobic metabolic scope and environmental hypoxia in aquatic breathers.

PubMed

Rosewarne, P J; Wilson, J M; Svendsen, J C

2016-01-01

Metabolic rate is one of the most widely measured physiological traits in animals and may be influenced by both endogenous (e.g. body mass) and exogenous factors (e.g. oxygen availability and temperature). Standard metabolic rate (SMR) and maximum metabolic rate (MMR) are two fundamental physiological variables providing the floor and ceiling in aerobic energy metabolism. The total amount of energy available between these two variables constitutes the aerobic metabolic scope (AMS). A laboratory exercise aimed at an undergraduate level physiology class, which details the appropriate data acquisition methods and calculations to measure oxygen consumption rates in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, is presented here. Specifically, the teaching exercise employs intermittent flow respirometry to measure SMR and MMR, derives AMS from the measurements and demonstrates how AMS is affected by environmental oxygen. Students' results typically reveal a decline in AMS in response to environmental hypoxia. The same techniques can be applied to investigate the influence of other key factors on metabolic rate (e.g. temperature and body mass). Discussion of the results develops students' understanding of the mechanisms underlying these fundamental physiological traits and the influence of exogenous factors. More generally, the teaching exercise outlines essential laboratory concepts in addition to metabolic rate calculations, data acquisition and unit conversions that enhance competency in quantitative analysis and reasoning. Finally, the described procedures are generally applicable to other fish species or aquatic breathers such as crustaceans (e.g. crayfish) and provide an alternative to using higher (or more derived) animals to investigate questions related to metabolic physiology. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Association Between the Decline in Workers’ Compensation Claims and Workforce Composition and Job Characteristics in Ontario, Canada

PubMed Central

Breslin, F. Curtis; Tompa, Emile; Mustard, Cameron; Zhao, Ryan; Smith, Peter; Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah

2007-01-01

We examined associations between workforce demographics and job characteristics, grouped by industrial sector, and declines in workers’ compensation claim rates in Ontario, Canada, between 1990 and 2003. Gender, age, occupation, and job tenure were predictors for claim rates in 12 industrial sectors. The decline in claims was significantly associated with a decline in the proportion of employment in occupations with high physical demands. These findings should generate interest in economic incentives and regulatory policies designed to encourage investment in safer production processes. PMID:17267716

Association between the decline in workers' compensation claims and workforce composition and job characteristics in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Breslin, F Curtis; Tompa, Emile; Mustard, Cameron; Zhao, Ryan; Smith, Peter; Hogg-Johnson, Sheilah

2007-03-01

We examined associations between workforce demographics and job characteristics, grouped by industrial sector, and declines in workers' compensation claim rates in Ontario, Canada, between 1990 and 2003. Gender, age, occupation, and job tenure were predictors for claim rates in 12 industrial sectors. The decline in claims was significantly associated with a decline in the proportion of employment in occupations with high physical demands. These findings should generate interest in economic incentives and regulatory policies designed to encourage investment in safer production processes.

State Efforts to Promote Reading and Literary Activities in Communities. NGA Center for Best Practices Issue Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Governors Association, 2006

2006-01-01

Rates of reading in the United States have been declining for at least two decades, with the steepest decline occurring among young adults. Fewer than half of adults read literature--poetry, plays, short stories or novels--in their leisure time. At the current rate of decline, literary reading will virtually disappear in the next half-century. Few…

The Wages of Older Men.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carliner, Geoffrey

1982-01-01

Net depreciation rates in human capital are estimated from wage data on a longitudinal sample of men aged 45 to 64. The results indicate that wage rates begin to decline in the early 50s at rates under one percent annually and decline at about two percent annually after age 60. (Author)

Decreases in bone blood flow and bone material properties in aging Fischer-344 rats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloomfield, Susan A.; Hogan, Harry A.; Delp, Michael D.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this study was to quantify precisely aging-induced changes in skeletal perfusion and bone mechanical properties in a small rodent model. Blood flow was measured in conscious juvenile (2 months old), adult (6 months old), and aged (24 months old) male Fischer-344 rats using radiolabeled microspheres. There were no significant differences in bone perfusion rate or vascular resistance between juvenile and adult rats. However, blood flow was lower in aged versus adult rats in the forelimb bones, scapulas, and femurs. To test for functional effects of this decline in blood flow, bone mineral density and mechanical properties were measured in rats from these two age groups. Bone mineral density and cross-sectional moment of inertia in femoral and tibial shafts and the femoral neck were significantly larger in the aged versus adult rats, resulting in increased (+14%-53%) breaking strength and stiffness. However, intrinsic material properties at midshaft of the long bones were 12% to 25% lower in the aged rats. Although these data are consistent with a potential link between decreased perfusion and focal alterations in bone remodeling activity related to clinically relevant bone loss, additional studies are required to establish the mechanisms for this putative relationship.

Time-dependent correlation of cerebral blood flow with oxygen metabolism in activated human visual cortex as measured by fMRI.

PubMed

Lin, Ai-Ling; Fox, Peter T; Yang, Yihong; Lu, Hanzhang; Tan, Li-Hai; Gao, Jia-Hong

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between relative cerebral blood flow (delta CBF) and relative cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (delta CMRO(2)) during continuous visual stimulation (21 min at 8 Hz) with fMRI biophysical models by simultaneously measuring of BOLD, CBF and CBV fMRI signals. The delta CMRO(2) was determined by both a newly calibrated single-compartment model (SCM) and a multi-compartment model (MCM) and was in agreement between these two models (P>0.5). The duration-varying delta CBF and delta CMRO(2) showed a negative correlation with time (r=-0.97, P<0.001); i.e., delta CBF declines while delta CMRO(2) increases during continuous stimulation. This study also illustrated that without properly calibrating the critical parameters employed in the SCM, an incorrect and even an opposite appearance of the flow-metabolism relationship during prolonged visual stimulation (positively linear coupling) can result. The time-dependent negative correlation between flow and metabolism demonstrated in this fMRI study is consistent with a previous PET observation and further supports the view that the increase in CBF is driven by factors other than oxygen demand and the energy demands will eventually require increased aerobic metabolism as stimulation continues.

Using population genetic tools to develop a control strategy for feral cats (Felis catus) in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, H.; Hess, S.C.; Cole, D.; Banko, P.C.

2007-01-01

Population genetics can provide information about the demographics and dynamics of invasive species that is beneficial for developing effective control strategies. We studied the population genetics of feral cats on Hawai'i Island by microsatellite analysis to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure, assess gene flow and connectivity among three populations, identify potential source populations, characterise population dynamics, and evaluate sex-biased dispersal. High genetic diversity, low structure, and high number of migrants per generation supported high gene flow that was not limited spatially. Migration rates revealed that most migration occurred out of West Mauna Kea. Effective population size estimates indicated increasing cat populations despite control efforts. Despite high gene flow, relatedness estimates declined significantly with increased geographic distance and Bayesian assignment tests revealed the presence of three population clusters. Genetic structure and relatedness estimates indicated male-biased dispersal, primarily from Mauna Kea, suggesting that this population should be targeted for control. However, recolonisation seems likely, given the great dispersal ability that may not be inhibited by barriers such as lava flows. Genetic monitoring will be necessary to assess the effectiveness of future control efforts. Management of other invasive species may benefit by employing these population genetic tools. ?? CSIRO 2007.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish.

PubMed

Sakaris, Peter C; Irwin, Elise R

2010-03-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotic fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes.

Budgets and chemical characterization of groundwater for the Diamond Valley flow system, central Nevada, 2011–12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berger, David L.; Mayers, C. Justin; Garcia, C. Amanda; Buto, Susan G.; Huntington, Jena M.

2016-07-29

The pre-development, steady state, groundwater budget for the Diamond Valley flow system was estimated at about 70,000 acre-ft/yr of inflow and outflow. During years 2011–12, inflow components of groundwater recharge from precipitation and subsurface inflow from adjacent basins totaled 70,000 acre-ft/yr for the DVFS, whereas outflow components included 64,000 acre-ft/yr of groundwater evapotranspiration and 69,000 acre-ft/yr of net groundwater withdrawals, or net pumpage. Spring discharge in northern Diamond Valley declined about 6,000 acre-ft/yr between pre-development time and years 2011–12. Assuming net groundwater withdrawals minus spring flow decline is equivalent to the storage change, the 2011–12 summation of inflow and storage change was balanced with outflow at about 133,000 acre-ft/yr.

Antihypertensive treatment and US trends in stroke mortality, 1962 to 1980.

PubMed Central

Casper, M; Wing, S; Strogatz, D; Davis, C E; Tyroler, H A

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVES. This study examines the association between increases in antihypertensive pharmacotherapy and declines in stroke mortality among 96 US groups stratified by race, sex, age, metropolitan status, and region from 1962 to 1980. METHODS. Data on the prevalence of controlled hypertension and socioeconomic profiles were obtained from three successive national health surveys. Stroke mortality rates were calculated using data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the Bureau of the Census. The association between controlled hypertension trends and stroke mortality declines was assessed with weighted regression. RESULTS. Prior to 1972, there was no association between trends in controlled hypertension and stroke mortality declines (beta = 0.04, P = .69). After 1972, groups with larger increases in controlled hypertension experienced slower rates of decline in stroke mortality (beta = 0.16, P = .003). Faster rates of decline were modestly but consistently related to improvements in socioeconomic indicators only for the post-1972 period. CONCLUSIONS. These results do not support the hypothesis that increased antihypertensive pharmacotherapy has been the primary determinant of recent declines in stroke mortality. Additional studies should address the association between declining stroke mortality and trends in socioeconomic resources, dietary patterns, and cigarette smoking. PMID:1456333

Simulation of a multistage fractured horizontal well in a water-bearing tight fractured gas reservoir under non-Darcy flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rui-Han; Zhang, Lie-Hui; Wang, Rui-He; Zhao, Yu-Long; Huang, Rui

2018-06-01

Reservoir development for unconventional resources such as tight gas reservoirs is in increasing demand due to the rapid decline of production in conventional reserves. Compared with conventional reservoirs, fluid flow in water-bearing tight gas reservoirs is subject to more nonlinear multiphase flow and gas slippage in nano/micro matrix pores because of the strong collisions between rock and gas molecules. Economic gas production from tight gas reservoirs depends on extensive application of water-based hydraulic fracturing of horizontal wells, associated with non-Darcy flow at a high flow rate, geomechanical stress sensitivity of un-propped natural fractures, complex flow geometry and multiscale heterogeneity. How to efficiently and accurately predict the production performance of a multistage fractured horizontal well (MFHW) is challenging. In this paper, a novel multicontinuum, multimechanism, two-phase simulator is established based on unstructured meshes and the control volume finite element method to analyze the production performance of MFHWs. The multiple interacting continua model and discrete fracture model are coupled to integrate the unstimulated fractured reservoir, induced fracture networks (stimulated reservoir volumes, SRVs) and irregular discrete hydraulic fractures. Several simulations and sensitivity analyses are performed with the developed simulator for determining the key factors affecting the production performance of MFHWs. Two widely applied fracturing models, classic hydraulic fracturing which generates long double-wing fractures and the volumetric fracturing aimed at creating large SRVs, are compared to identify which of them can make better use of tight gas reserves.

Coalescent genealogy samplers: windows into population history

PubMed Central

Kuhner, Mary K.

2016-01-01

Coalescent genealogy samplers attempt to estimate past qualities of a population, such as its size, growth rate, patterns of gene flow or time of divergence from another population, based on samples of molecular data. Genealogy samplers are increasingly popular because of their potential to disentangle complex population histories. In the last decade they have been widely applied to systems ranging from humans to viruses. Findings include detection of unexpected reproductive inequality in fish, new estimates of historical whale abundance, exoneration of humans for the prehistoric decline of bison and inference of a selective sweep on the human Y chromosome. This review summarizes available genealogy-sampler software, including data requirements and limitations on the use of each program. PMID:19101058

Coalescent genealogy samplers: windows into population history.

PubMed

Kuhner, Mary K

2009-02-01

Coalescent genealogy samplers attempt to estimate past qualities of a population, such as its size, growth rate, patterns of gene flow or time of divergence from another population, based on samples of molecular data. Genealogy samplers are increasingly popular because of their potential to disentangle complex population histories. In the last decade they have been widely applied to systems ranging from humans to viruses. Findings include detection of unexpected reproductive inequality in fish, new estimates of historical whale abundance, exoneration of humans for the prehistoric decline of bison and inference of a selective sweep on the human Y chromosome. This review summarizes available genealogy-sampler software, including data requirements and limitations on the use of each program.

An appraisal of ground water for irrigation in the Appleton area, west-central Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larson, Steven P.

1976-01-01

Mathematical models of a part of the aquifer were made to evaluate the effects of 20 successive years of ground-water withdrawal for three irrigation-development patterns. It was estimated that the present annual withdrawal rate of 1,410 acre-ft (1.74 hm3) would result in water-level declines of less than 3 feet (0.9 m). However, annual withdrawals of 8,450 acre-ft (10.4 hm3) would cause aquifer dewatering and decreased well yields in some places. After a new state of equilibrium was established in response to withdrawals, most of the withdrawal would be supplied by diverted base flow from the Pomme de Terre River.

What do male singers mean by modal and falsetto register? An investigation of the glottal voice source.

PubMed

Salomão, Gláucia Laís; Sundberg, Johan

2009-01-01

The voice source differs between modal and falsetto registers, but singers often try to reduce the associated timbral differences, some even doubting that there are any. A total of 54 vowel sounds sung in falsetto and modal register by 13 male more or less experienced choir singers were analyzed by inverse filtering and electroglottography. Closed quotient, maximum flow declination rate, peak-to-peak airflow amplitude, normalized amplitude quotient, and level difference between the two lowest source spectrum partials were determined, and systematic differences were found in all singers, regardless of experience of singing. The observations seem compatible with previous observations of thicker vocal folds in modal register.

US lung cancer trends by histologic type.

PubMed

Lewis, Denise Riedel; Check, David P; Caporaso, Neil E; Travis, William D; Devesa, Susan S

2014-09-15

Lung cancer incidence rates overall are declining in the United States. This study investigated the trends by histologic type and demographic characteristics. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program rates of microscopically confirmed lung cancer overall and squamous cell, small cell, adenocarcinoma, large cell, other, and unspecified carcinomas among US whites and blacks diagnosed from 1977 to 2010 and white non-Hispanics, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and white Hispanics diagnosed from 1992 to 2010 were analyzed by sex and age. Squamous and small cell carcinoma rates declined since the 1990s, although less rapidly among females than males. Adenocarcinoma rates decreased among males and only through 2005, after which they then rose during 2006 to 2010 among every racial/ethnic/sex group; rates for unspecified type declined. Male/female rate ratios declined among whites and blacks more than among other groups. Recent rates among young females were higher than among males for adenocarcinoma among all racial/ethnic groups and for other specified carcinomas among whites. US lung cancer trends vary by sex, histologic type, racial/ethnic group, and age, reflecting historical cigarette smoking rates, duration, cessation, cigarette composition, and exposure to other carcinogens. Substantial excesses among males have diminished and higher rates of adenocarcinoma among young females have emerged as rates among males declined more rapidly. The recognition of EGFR mutation and ALK rearrangements that occur primarily in adenocarcinomas are the primary basis for the molecular revolution that has transformed lung cancer diagnosis and treatment over the past decade, and these changes have affected recent type-specific trends. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Conceptualization and analysis of ground-water flow system in the Coastal Plain of Virginia and adjacent parts of Maryland and North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harsh, John F.; Laczniak, Randell J.

1990-01-01

The ground-water flow system in the Coastal Plain of Virginia and adjacent parts of Maryland and North Carolina consists of a water table aquifer and an underlying sequence of confined aquifers and intervening confining units composed of unconsolidated sand and clay. A digital flow model was developed to enhance knowledge of the behavior of the ground-water flow system in response to its development. Ten pumping periods covering 90 yr of withdrawal simulated the history of ground-water development. Simulated potentiometric-surface maps for 1980 show lowered water levels and the development of coalescing cones of depression around the cities of Franklin, Suffolk, and Williamsburg and the town of West Point, all in Virginia. The largest simulated decline in water level, about 210 ft was near Franklin. Water budgets indicate that over the period of simulation (1891-1980): (1) pumpage from the model area increased by about 105 Mgal/d; (2) lateral boundary outflow increased by about 5 Mgal/d; (3) ground-water flow to streams and coastal water decreased by about 107.5 Mgal/d; (4) lateral boundary inflow increased by about 0.7 Mgal/d, and (5) water released from aquifer storage increased by about 1.6 Mgal/d. Simulated rates of recharge into the confined aquifer system at the end of the final pumping period (1980) varied up to 3.8 in/yr. and simulated rates of discharge out of the confined system varied up to 2.2 in/yr. Results of simulations show an increase of about 110 Mgal/d into the confined system from the unconfined system over the period of simulation. This increase in flow into the confined system affected local discharge of ground water to streams and regional discharge to coastal water. Lowering the storage coefficient of the aquifer had a minimal effect simulated water levels, whereas increasing the storage coefficient had a much more significant effect.

[Fertility in rural and urban areas of Mexico].

PubMed

Garcia Y Garma, I O

1989-01-01

Data from 6 fertility surveys conducted in Mexico between 1969-87 were used to compare rural and urban fertility and to determine whether a significant level of contraceptive usage could be achieved in rural areas despite their lack of socioeconomic development. Age-specific marital fertility rates were calculated for the 4 national-level and 2 rural fertility surveys. The index of fertility control developed by Coale and Trussel was calculated for rural, urban, and all areas. The marital total fertility rate in rural areas declined from 10.6 in 1970 to 7.4 in 1982, a decline of 2.5% annually. From 1982-87 the annual rate of decline in rural fertility slowed to 1.6%, reaching 6.8 children in 1987. The urban marital total fertility rate declined from 7.72 in 1976 to 5.03 in 1987, while the marital total fertility rate for Mexico as a whole declined from 9.04 in 1976 to 5.85 in 1987. The indices of fertility control showed slowly increasing use of contraception in rural areas starting from the very low level of 1969. The urban index of fertility control showed some contraceptive use for all age groups in all surveys. The increases in contraceptive usage were considerable in rural areas from 1976-82 and much less marked in urban areas. From 1982-87 the inverse was observed and the fertility decline in urban areas was more marked. The condition of natural fertility found in rural areas in 1969 subsequently disappeared. Over time, fertility decline and use of contraception have intensified. Contraception is widely practiced in urban areas and is continuing to become more prevalent. The rural fertility decline in 1976-82 suggests that at least sometimes increases in fertility control are more important in rural areas than in urban areas. The theory of modernization, which holds that fertility decline in developed countries is attributable to factors associated with the process of modernization, thus comes into question. However, it is probable that a sustained fertility decline in the most depressed rural areas will be achieved only with substantial socioeconomic change.

Arbuscular Mycorrhiza Alleviates Restrictions to Substrate Water Flow and Delays Transpiration Limitation to Stronger Drought in Tomato

PubMed Central

Bitterlich, Michael; Sandmann, Martin; Graefe, Jan

2018-01-01

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) proliferate in soil pores, on the surface of soil particles and affect soil structure. Although modifications in substrate moisture retention depend on structure and could influence plant water extraction, mycorrhizal impacts on water retention and hydraulic conductivity were rarely quantified. Hence, we asked whether inoculation with AMF affects substrate water retention, water transport properties and at which drought intensity those factors become limiting for plant transpiration. Solanum lycopersicum plants were set up in the glasshouse, inoculated or not with Funneliformis mosseae, and grown for 35 days under ample water supply. After mycorrhizal establishment, we harvested three sets of plants, one before (36 days after inoculation) and the second (day 42) and third (day 47) within a sequential drying episode. Sampling cores were introduced into pots before planting. After harvest, moisture retention and substrate conductivity properties were assessed and water retention and hydraulic conductivity models were fitted. A root water uptake model was adopted in order to identify the critical substrate moisture that induces soil derived transpiration limitation. Neither substrate porosity nor saturated water contents were affected by inoculation, but both declined after substrates dried. Drying also caused a decline in pot water capacity and hydraulic conductivity. Plant available water contents under wet (pF 1.8–4.2) and dry (pF 2.5–4.2) conditions increased in mycorrhizal substrates and were conserved after drying. Substrate hydraulic conductivity was higher in mycorrhizal pots before and during drought exposure. After withholding water from pots, higher substrate drying rates and lower substrate water potentials were found in mycorrhizal substrates. Mycorrhiza neither affected leaf area nor root weight or length. Consistently with higher substrate drying rates, AMF restored the plant hydraulic status, and increased plant transpiration when soil moisture declined. The water potential at the root surface and the resistance to water flow in the rhizosphere were restored in mycorrhizal pots although the bulk substrate dried more. Finally, substrates colonized by AMF can be more desiccated before substrate water flux quantitatively limits transpiration. This is most pronounced under high transpiration demands and complies with a difference of over 1,000 hPa in substrate water potential. PMID:29503655

Child Poverty Was Lower at End of 1990s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rogers, Carolyn C.

2001-01-01

Poverty rates increased in the early 1990s, but between 1994 and 1999 the metro child poverty rate declined 6 percentage points and the nonmetro rate declined 4 percent. In 1999, the poverty rate for nonmetro Black children was about double that of nonmetro White children, but the Black-White gap in poverty narrowed between 1985 and 1999. (TD)

Variations in teenage birth rates, 1991-98: national and state trends.

PubMed

Ventura, S J; Curtin, S C; Mathews, T J

2000-04-24

This report presents national birth rates for teenagers for 1991-98 and the percent change, 1991-98. State-specific teenage birth rates by age, race, and Hispanic origin for 1991 and 1998 and the percent change, 1991 to 1998, are also presented. Tabular and graphical descriptions of the trends in teenage birth rates for the Nation and each State, by age group, race, and Hispanic origin of the mother, are discussed. Birth rates for teenagers 15-19 years declined nationally between 1991 and 1998 for all age and race and Hispanic origin populations, with the steepest declines recorded for black teenagers. State-specific rates fell significantly in all States for ages 15-19 years; declines ranged from 10 to 38 percent. In general, rates by State fell more for younger than for older teenagers, ranging by State from 10 to 46 percent for ages 15-17 years. Statistically significant reductions for older teenagers ranged from 3 to 39 percent. Reductions by State were largest for black teenagers 15-19 years, with rates falling 30 percent or more in 15 States. Among the factors accounting for these declines are decreased sexual activity, increases in condom use, and the adoption of the implant and injectable contraceptives.

Mauna Loa lava accumulation rates at the Hilo drill site: Formation of lava deltas during a period of declining overall volcanic growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lipman, P.W.; Moore, J.G.

1996-01-01

Accumulation rates for lava flows erupted from Mauna Loa, as sampled in the uppermost 280 m of the Hilo drill hole, vary widely for short time intervals (several thousand years), but overall are broadly similar to those documented elsewhere on this volcano since 100 ka. Thickness variations and accumulation rates for Mauna Loa lavas at the Hilo drill site have been strongly affected by local paleotopography, including funneling and ponding between Mauna Kea and Kilauea. In addition, gentle submerged slopes of Mauna Kea in Hilo Bay have permitted large shoreline displacements by Mauna Loa flows. Ages of eruptive intervals have been determined from published isotopic data and from eustatic sea level curves modified to include the isostatic subsidence of the island of Hawaii at 2.2-2.6 mm/yr. Prior to 10 ka, rates of Mauna Loa lava accumulation at the drill site varied from 0.6 to 4.3 mm/yr for dateable intervals, with an overall rate of 1.8 mm/yr. Major eruptive pulses at about 1.3 and 10 ka, each probably representing a single long-lived eruption based on lack of weathering between flow units, increase the overall accumulation rate to 2.4 mm/yr. The higher rate since 10 ka reflects construction of thick near-shoreline lava deltas as postglacial sea levels rose rapidly. Large lava deltas form only along coastal segments where initially subaerial slopes have been submerged by the combined effects of eustatic sea level rise, isostatic subsidence, or spreading of volcano flanks. Overall accumulation of 239 m of lava at the drill site since 100-120 ka closely balances submergence of the Hilo area, suggesting that processes of coastal lava deposition have been modulated by rise in sea level. The Hilo accumulation rate is slightly higher than average rates of 1-2 mm/yr determined elsewhere along the Mauna Loa coast, based on rates of shoreline coverage and dated sea cliff and fault scarp exposures. Low rates of coastal lava accumulation since 100 ka, near or below the rate of island-wide isostatic subsidence, indicate that Mauna Loa is no longer growing vigorously or even maintaining its size above sea level.

Declines in stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Europe between 2004 and 2010: results from the Euro-Peristat project

PubMed Central

Zeitlin, Jennifer; Mortensen, Laust; Cuttini, Marina; Lack, Nicholas; Nijhuis, Jan; Haidinger, Gerald; Blondel, Béatrice; Hindori-Mohangoo, Ashna D

2016-01-01

Background Stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates declined in Europe between 2004 and 2010. We hypothesised that declines might be greater for countries with higher mortality in 2004 and disproportionally affect very preterm infants at highest risk. Methods Data about live births, stillbirths and neonatal deaths by gestational age (GA) were collected using a common protocol by the Euro-Peristat project in 2004 and 2010. We analysed stillbirths at ≥28 weeks GA in 22 countries and live births ≥24 weeks GA for neonatal mortality in 18 countries. Per cent changes over time were assessed by calculating risk ratios (RR) for stillbirth, neonatal mortality and preterm birth rates in 2010 vs 2004. We used meta-analysis techniques to derive pooled RR using random-effects models overall, by GA subgroups and by mortality level in 2004. Results Between 2004 and 2010, stillbirths declined by 17% (95% CI 10% to 23%), with a range from 1% to 39% by country. Neonatal mortality declined by 29% (95% CI 23% to 35%) with a range from 9% to 67%. Preterm birth rates did not change: 0% (95% CI −3% to 3%). Mortality declines were of a similar magnitude at all GA; mortality levels in 2004 were not associated with RRs. Conclusions Stillbirths and neonatal deaths declined at all gestational ages in countries with both high and low levels of mortality in 2004. These results raise questions about how low-mortality countries achieve continued declines and highlight the importance of improving care across the GA spectrum. PMID:26719590

Hypolimnetic dissolved-oxygen dynamics within selected White River reservoirs, northern Arkansas-southern Missouri, 1974-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Lanois, Jeanne L.; Green, W. Reed

2011-01-01

Dissolved oxygen is a critical constituent in reservoirs and lakes because it is essential for metabolism by all aerobic aquatic organisms. In general, hypolimnetic temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentrations vary from summer to summer in reservoirs, more so than in natural lakes, largely in response to the magnitude of flow into and release out of the water body. Because eutrophication is often defined as the acceleration of biological productivity resulting from increased nutrient and organic loading, hypolimnetic oxygen consumption rates or deficits often provide a useful tool in analyzing temporal changes in water quality. This report updates a previous report that evaluated hypolimnetic dissolved-oxygen dynamics for a 21-year record (1974-94) in Beaver, Table Rock, Bull Shoals, and Norfork Lakes, as well as analyzed the record for Greers Ferry Lake. Beginning in 1974, vertical profiles of temperature and dissolved-oxygen concentrations generally were collected monthly from March through December at sites near the dam of each reservoir. The rate of change in the amount of dissolved oxygen present below a given depth at the beginning and end of the thermal stratification period is referred to as the areal hypolimnetic oxygen deficit. Areal hypolimnetic oxygen deficit was normalized for each reservoir based on seasonal flushing rate between April 15 and October 31 to adjust for wet year and dry year variability. Annual cycles in thermal stratification within Beaver, Table Rock, Bull Shoals, Norfork, and Greers Ferry Lakes exhibited typical monomictic (one extended turnover period per year) characteristics. Flow dynamics drive reservoir processes and need to be considered when analyzing areal hypolimnetic oxygen deficit rates. A nonparametric, locally weighted scatter plot smooth line describes the relation between areal hypolimnetic oxygen deficit and seasonal flushing rates, without assuming linearity or normality of the residuals. The results in this report are consistent with earlier findings that oxygen deficit rates and flushing-rate adjusted areal hypolimnetic oxygen deficit in Beaver and Table Rock Lakes were decreasing between 1974 and 1994. The additional data (1995-2008) demonstrate that the decline in flushing-rate adjusted areal hypolimnetic oxygen deficit in Beaver Lake has continued, whereas that in Table Rock Lake has flattened out in recent years. The additional data demonstrate the flushing-rate adjusted areal hypolimnetic oxygen deficit in Bull Shoals and Norfork Lakes have declined since 1995 (improved water quality), which was not indicated in earlier studies, while Greers Ferry Lake showed little net change over the period of record. Given the amount of data (35 years) for these reservoirs, developing an equation or model to predict areal hypolimnetic oxygen deficit and, therefore, areal hypolimnetic oxygen content, on any given day during future stratification seasons may be useful for reservoir managers.

Net present value probability distributions from decline curve reserves estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpson, D.E.; Huffman, C.H.; Thompson, R.S.

1995-12-31

This paper demonstrates how reserves probability distributions can be used to develop net present value (NPV) distributions. NPV probability distributions were developed from the rate and reserves distributions presented in SPE 28333. This real data study used practicing engineer`s evaluations of production histories. Two approaches were examined to quantify portfolio risk. The first approach, the NPV Relative Risk Plot, compares the mean NPV with the NPV relative risk ratio for the portfolio. The relative risk ratio is the NPV standard deviation (a) divided the mean ({mu}) NPV. The second approach, a Risk - Return Plot, is a plot of themore » {mu} discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR) versus the {sigma} for the DCFROR distribution. This plot provides a risk-return relationship for comparing various portfolios. These methods may help evaluate property acquisition and divestiture alternatives and assess the relative risk of a suite of wells or fields for bank loans.« less

Summer water use by mixed-age and young forest stands, Mattole River, northern California, U.S.A

Treesearch

Andrew Stubblefield; Max Kaufman; Greg Blomstrom; John Rogers

2012-01-01

Resource managers have noted a decline in summer flow levels in the last decade in the Mattole River watershed, Humboldt County, California. Reduced river flows pose a threat to endangered coho and chinook salmon in the watershed, as stream heating is inversely proportional to discharge. While the cause of the reduced flow is unclear, several factors have been cited:...

Porting Initiation and Failure into Linked CHEETAH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souers, Clark; Vitello, Peter

2007-06-01

Linked CHEETAH is a thermo-chemical code coupled to a 2-D hydrocode. Initially, a quadratic-pressure dependent kinetic rate was used, which worked well in modeling prompt detonation of explosives of large size, but does not work on other aspects of explosive behavior. The variable-pressure Tarantula reactive flow rate model was developed with JWL++ in order to also describe failure and initiation, and we have moved this model into Linked CHEETAH. The model works by turning on only above a pressure threshold, where a slow turn-on creates initiation. At a higher pressure, the rate suddenly leaps to a large value over a small pressure range. A slowly failing cylinder will see a rapidly declining rate, which pushes it quickly into failure. At a high pressure, the detonation rate is constant. A sequential validation procedure is used, which includes metal-confined cylinders, rate-sticks, corner-turning, initiation and threshold, gap tests and air gaps. The size (diameter) effect is central to the calibration. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract No. W-7405-Eng-48.

[Study on Oxygen Consumption, Oxygen Consumption Rate and Asphyxiation Point of Poecilobdella manillensis].

PubMed

Zhou, Wei-guan; Lv, Wei-ping; Qiu, Yi; Zhou, Wei-hai

2014-12-01

To investigate the oxygen consumption, oxygen consumption rate and asphyxiation point of Poecilobdella ma- nillensis. Oxygen consumption, oxygen consumption rate and asphyxiation point on juvenile (the average weight of 0. 29 g) and adult leech (the average weight of 2.89 g) of Poecilobdella manillensis were measured at water temperature conditions of 20. 2 and 30. 4 °C respectively using an airtight container with flowing water. Oxygen consumptions of Poecilobdella manillensis were increased with the increase of temperature and body weight respectively; However, their oxygen consumption rates circadian variation and the aver- age oxygen consumption rate at daytime were higher than those at night. In addition, their asphyxiation point was declined accordingly with the increase of temperature and body weight respectively. Oxygen consumption and oxygen consumption rate of Poeci- lobdella manillensis were closely associated with their activities and influenced by circadian variation, the preferable feeding time were the period of 6:00-10:00 in the morning or 17:00-19:00 in the afternoon; Meanwhile, Poecilobdella manillensis had a higher ability of the hypoxia tolerance for high density or factory farming, the long time living preservation and the long distance transport.

Influence of Lorentz force, Cattaneo-Christov heat flux and viscous dissipation on the flow of micropolar fluid past a nonlinear convective stretching vertical surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnaneswara Reddy, Machireddy

2017-12-01

The problem of micropolar fluid flow over a nonlinear stretching convective vertical surface in the presence of Lorentz force and viscous dissipation is investigated. Due to the nature of heat transfer in the flow past vertical surface, Cattaneo-Christov heat flux model effect is properly accommodated in the energy equation. The governing partial differential equations for the flow and heat transfer are converted into a set of ordinary differential equations by employing the acceptable similarity transformations. Runge-Kutta and Newton's methods are utilized to resolve the altered governing nonlinear equations. Obtained numerical results are compared with the available literature and found to be an excellent agreement. The impacts of dimensionless governing flow pertinent parameters on velocity, micropolar velocity and temperature profiles are presented graphically for two cases (linear and nonlinear) and analyzed in detail. Further, the variations of skin friction coefficient and local Nusselt number are reported with the aid of plots for the sundry flow parameters. The temperature and the related boundary enhances enhances with the boosting values of M. It is found that fluid temperature declines for larger thermal relaxation parameter. Also, it is revealed that the Nusselt number declines for the hike values of Bi.

Utilizing Wavelet Analysis to assess hydrograph change in northwestern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, W.; Carey, S. K.

2017-12-01

Historical streamflow data in the mountainous regions of northwestern North America suggest that changes flows are driven by warming temperature, declining snowpack and glacier extent, and large-scale teleconnections. However, few sites exist that have robust long-term records for statistical analysis, and pervious research has focussed on high and low-flow indices along with trend analysis using Mann-Kendal test and other similar approaches. Furthermore, there has been less emphasis on ascertaining the drivers of change in changes in shape of the streamflow hydrograph compared with traditional flow metrics. In this work, we utilize wavelet analysis to evaluate changes in hydrograph characteristics for snowmelt driven rivers in northwestern North America across a range of scales. Results suggest that wavelets can be used to detect a lengthening and advancement of freshet with a corresponding decline in peak flows. Furthermore, the gradual transition of flows from nival to pluvial regimes in more southerly catchments is evident in the wavelet spectral power through time. This method of change detection is challenged by evaluating the statistical significance of changes in wavelet spectra as related to hydrograph form, yet ongoing work seeks to link these patters to driving weather and climate along with larger scale teleconnections.

Water-level conditions in the Black Creek and upper Cape Fear aquifers, 1992, in parts of Bladen and Robeson counties, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strickland, Alfred Gerald

1994-01-01

Water-level measurements were made in 68 wells throughout an area of about 860 square miles in Bladen and Robeson Counties, North Carolina, during September and October 1992. Water levels from 58 wells were used to determine the configuration of the potentiometric surface of the Black Creek aquifer. A map of the potentiometric surface shows the potential for ground water to flow from recharge areas in the local uplands to discharge areas, such as local streams and wells. Pumping from wells at major pumping centers, such as Elizabethtown in Bladen County and Lumberton in Robeson County, where water-level declines of more than 12 feet were recorded from 1988 to 1992, has resulted in cones of depression in the potentiometric surface. The cones were about 4 and 6 miles long across the major axes beneath the Elizabethtown and Lumberton areas, respectively, in 1992. Water levels measured in eight wells in 1988 and 1992, supplemented with water levels in two additional wells from driller's well- construction records, were used to estimate average yearly rates of ground-water change for the upper Cape Fear aquifer for part of the study area. During 1988-92, water-level declines occurred in the aquifer throughout much of the area as a result of pumping. The greatest decline, an average of 4.1 feet per year, was in Bladen County.

Cerebral metabolic and cognitive decline in persons at genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease

PubMed Central

Small, Gary W.; Ercoli, Linda M.; Silverman, Daniel H. S.; Huang, S.-C.; Komo, Scott; Bookheimer, Susan Y.; Lavretsky, Helen; Miller, Karen; Siddarth, Prabha; Rasgon, Natalie L.; Mazziotta, John C.; Saxena, Sanjaya; Wu, H. M.; Mega, Michael S.; Cummings, Jeffrey L.; Saunders, Ann M.; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A.; Roses, Allen D.; Barrio, Jorge R.; Phelps, Michael E.

2000-01-01

The major known genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD), apolipoprotein E-4 (APOE-4), is associated with lowered parietal, temporal, and posterior cingulate cerebral glucose metabolism in patients with a clinical diagnosis of AD. To determine cognitive and metabolic decline patterns according to genetic risk, we investigated cerebral metabolic rates by using positron emission tomography in middle-aged and older nondemented persons with normal memory performance. A single copy of the APOE-4 allele was associated with lowered inferior parietal, lateral temporal, and posterior cingulate metabolism, which predicted cognitive decline after 2 years of longitudinal follow-up. For the 20 nondemented subjects followed longitudinally, memory performance scores did not decline significantly, but cortical metabolic rates did. In APOE-4 carriers, a 4% left posterior cingulate metabolic decline was observed, and inferior parietal and lateral temporal regions demonstrated the greatest magnitude (5%) of metabolic decline after 2 years. These results indicate that the combination of cerebral metabolic rates and genetic risk factors provides a means for preclinical AD detection that will assist in response monitoring during experimental treatments. PMID:10811879

Climate change and runoff in south-western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silberstein, R. P.; Aryal, S. K.; Durrant, J.; Pearcey, M.; Braccia, M.; Charles, S. P.; Boniecka, L.; Hodgson, G. A.; Bari, M. A.; Viney, N. R.; McFarlane, D. J.

2012-12-01

SummaryThis paper presents the results of computer simulations of runoff from 13 major fresh and brackish river basins in south-western Australia (SWA) under climate projections obtained from 15 GCMs with three future global warming scenarios equivalent to global temperature rises of 0.7 °C, 1.0 °C and 1.3 °C by 2030. The objective was to apply an efficient methodology, consistent across a large region, to examine the implications of the best available projections in climate trends for future surface water resources. An ensemble of rainfall-runoff models was calibrated on stream flow data from 1975 to 2007 from 106 gauged catchments distributed throughout the basins of the study area. The sensitivity of runoff to projected changes in mean annual rainfall is examined using the climate 'elasticity' concept. Averaged across the study area, all 15 GCMs project declines in rainfall under all global warming scenarios with a median decline of 8% resulting in a median decline in runoff of 25%. Such uniformity in projections from GCMs is unusual. Over SWA the average annual runoff under the 5th wettest and 5th driest of the 45 projections of the 2030 climate declines by 10 and 42%, respectively. Under the 5th driest projection the runoff decline ranges from 53% in the northern region to 40% in the southern region. Strong regional variations in climate sensitivity are found with the proportional decline in runoff greatest in the northern region and the greatest volumetric declines in the wetter basins in the south. Since the mid 1970s stream flows into the major water supply reservoirs in SWA have declined by more than 50% following a 16% rainfall reduction. This has already had major implications for water resources planning and for the preservation of aquatic and riparian ecosystems in the region. Our results indicate that this reduction in runoff is likely to continue if future climate projections eventuate.

Demography of Symbiotic Nitrogen-Fixing Trees Explains Their Rarity and Successional Decline in Temperate Forests in the United States.

PubMed

Liao, Wenying; Menge, Duncan N L

2016-01-01

Symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation is the major N input to many ecosystems. Although temperate forests are commonly N limited, symbiotic N-fixing trees ("N fixers") are rare and decline in abundance as succession proceeds-a challenging paradox that remains unexplained. Understanding demographic processes that underlie N fixers' rarity and successional decline would provide a proximate answer to the paradox. Do N fixers grow slower, die more frequently, or recruit less in temperate forests? We quantified demographic rates of N-fixing and non-fixing trees across succession using U.S. forest inventory data. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the relative contribution of each demographic process to community dynamics. Compared to non-fixers, N fixers had lower growth rates, higher mortality rates, and lower recruitment rates throughout succession. The mortality effect contributed more than the growth effect to N fixers' successional decline. Canopy and understory N fixers experienced these demographic disadvantages, indicating that factors in addition to light limitation likely contribute to N fixers' successional decline. We show that the rarity and successional decline of N-fixing trees in temperate forests is due more to their survival disadvantage than their growth disadvantage, and a recruitment disadvantage might also play a large role.

Explaining the Decline in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Effect of the Great Recession

PubMed Central

Villarreal, Andrés

2014-01-01

The rate of Mexico-U.S. migration has declined precipitously in recent years. From 25 migrants per thousand in 2005, the annual international migration rate for Mexican men dropped to 7 per thousand by 2012. If sustained, this low migration rate is likely to have a profound effect on the ethnic and national-origin composition of the U.S. population. This study examines the origins of the migration decline using a nationally representative panel survey of Mexican households. The results support an explanation that attributes a large part of the decline to lower labor demand for Mexican immigrants in the United States. Decreases in labor demand in industrial sectors that employ a large percentage of Mexican-born workers, such as construction, are found to be strongly associated with lower rates of migration for Mexican men. Second, changes in migrant selectivity are also consistent with an economic explanation for the decline in international migration. The largest declines in migration occurred precisely among the demographic groups most affected by the Great Recession: namely, economically active young men with low education. Results from the statistical analysis also show that the reduction in labor demand in key sectors of the U.S. economy resulted in a more positive educational selectivity of young migrants. PMID:25407844

Demography of Symbiotic Nitrogen-Fixing Trees Explains Their Rarity and Successional Decline in Temperate Forests in the United States

PubMed Central

Liao, Wenying; Menge, Duncan N. L.

2016-01-01

Symbiotic nitrogen (N) fixation is the major N input to many ecosystems. Although temperate forests are commonly N limited, symbiotic N-fixing trees (“N fixers”) are rare and decline in abundance as succession proceeds–a challenging paradox that remains unexplained. Understanding demographic processes that underlie N fixers’ rarity and successional decline would provide a proximate answer to the paradox. Do N fixers grow slower, die more frequently, or recruit less in temperate forests? We quantified demographic rates of N-fixing and non-fixing trees across succession using U.S. forest inventory data. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the relative contribution of each demographic process to community dynamics. Compared to non-fixers, N fixers had lower growth rates, higher mortality rates, and lower recruitment rates throughout succession. The mortality effect contributed more than the growth effect to N fixers’ successional decline. Canopy and understory N fixers experienced these demographic disadvantages, indicating that factors in addition to light limitation likely contribute to N fixers’ successional decline. We show that the rarity and successional decline of N-fixing trees in temperate forests is due more to their survival disadvantage than their growth disadvantage, and a recruitment disadvantage might also play a large role. PMID:27780268

Explaining the decline in Mexico-U.S. Migration: the effect of the Great Recession.

PubMed

Villarreal, Andrés

2014-12-01

The rate of Mexico-U.S. migration has declined precipitously in recent years. From 25 migrants per thousand in 2005, the annual international migration rate for Mexican men dropped to 7 per thousand by 2012. If sustained, this low migration rate is likely to have a profound effect on the ethnic and national-origin composition of the U.S. population. This study examines the origins of the migration decline using a nationally representative panel survey of Mexican households. The results support an explanation that attributes a large part of the decline to lower labor demand for Mexican immigrants in the United States. Decreases in labor demand in industrial sectors that employ a large percentage of Mexican-born workers, such as construction, are found to be strongly associated with lower rates of migration for Mexican men. Second, changes in migrant selectivity are also consistent with an economic explanation for the decline in international migration. The largest declines in migration occurred precisely among the demographic groups most affected by the Great Recession: namely, economically active young men with low education. Results from the statistical analysis also show that the reduction in labor demand in key sectors of the U.S. economy resulted in a more positive educational selectivity of young migrants.

Hydrobiogeochemical interactions in 'anoxic' limestone drains for neutralization of acidic mine drainage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, E.I.; Cravotta, C.A.; Savela, C.E.; Nord, G.L.

1999-01-01

Processes affecting neutralization of acidic coal mine drainage were evaluated within 'anoxic' limestone drains (ALDs). Influents had pH???3.5 and dissolved oxygen <2 mg/l. Even though effluents were near neutral (pH 6 and alkalinity acidity), two of the four ALDs were failing due to clogging. Mineral-saturation indices indicated the potential for dissolution of calcite and gypsum, and precipitation of Al3+ and Fe3+ compounds. Cleavage mounts of calcite and gypsum that were suspended within the ALDs and later examined microscopically showed dissolution features despite coatings by numerous bacteria, biofilms, and Fe-Al-Si precipitates. In the drain exhibiting the greatest flow reduction, Al-hydroxysulfates had accumulated on limestone surfaces and calcite etch points, thus causing the decline in transmissivity and dissolution. Therefore, where Al loadings are high and flow rates are low, a pre-treatment step is indicated to promote Al removal before diverting acidic mine water into alkalinity-producing materials. ?? 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Home Telecare for Chronic Disease Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-10-25

in USA. Mortality rate rose 32.9% from 1979 to 1991 and age adjusted death rates for COPD rose 71% from 1966 to 1986.Over the same two decades death ... rates from all causes declined by 22% and for heart and cerebral vascular disease declined by 45% and 58% respectively. Increases in morbidity and

HIV/HCV Co-infection, Liver Disease Progression, and Age-Related IGF-1 Decline.

PubMed

Quinn, Jeffrey; Astemborski, Jacquie; Mehta, Shruti H; Kirk, Gregory D; Thomas, David L; Balagopal, Ashwin

2017-01-01

We have previously reported that persons co-infected with HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) had liver disease stages similar to HIV-uninfected individuals who were approximately 10 years older. Insulin-like growth factor 1(IGF-1) levels have long been known to decline with advancing age in humans and non-humans alike. We examined whether HIV infection affects the expected decline in IGF-1 in persons with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and if that alteration in IGF-1 decline contributes to the link between HIV, aging, and liver disease progression. A total of 553 individuals with HCV infection were studied from the AIDS Linked to the Intravenous Experience (ALIVE) cohort for whom more than 10 years of follow-up was available. Serum IGF-1 levels were determined by ELISA and evaluated according to baseline characteristics and over time by HIV status and liver disease progression. Linear regression with generalized estimating equations was used to determine whether IGF-1 decline over time was independently associated with liver disease progression. Baseline IGF-1 levels were strongly associated with age ( P < 0.0001) but not with gender or HIV infection. Levels of IGF-1 declined at a rate of -1.75 ng/mL each year in HCV mono-infected individuals and at a rate of -1.23 ng/mL each year in HIV/HCV co-infected individuals ( P < 0.05). In a multivariable linear regression model, progression of liver fibrosis was associated with HIV infection and age, as well as with a slower rate of IGF-1 decline ( P = 0.001); however, the rate of IGF-1 decline did not alter the strength of the associations between HIV, liver disease, and age. The normal decline in IGF-1 levels with age was attenuated in HIV/HCV co-infected individuals compared to those with HCV mono-infection, and slower IGF-1 decline was independently associated with liver disease progression.

Urban Growth and Decline in the United States: A Study of Migration's Effects in Two Cities. Paper Series No. 5234.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Peter A.

The United States is a highly urbanized nation with space in abundance, yet large portions of its national territory are emptying out. The counterpart of this pervasive population decline is a highly selective pattern of growth, conferred by a national system of migration flows that has increasingly favored a certain few metropolitan areas. This…

Land subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley, California, USA, 2007-14

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sneed, Michelle; Brandt, Justin

2015-01-01

Rapid land subsidence was recently measured using multiple methods in two areas of the San Joaquin Valley (SJV): between Merced and Fresno (El Nido), and between Fresno and Bakersfield (Pixley). Recent land-use changes and diminished surface-water availability have led to increased groundwater pumping, groundwater-level declines, and land subsidence. Differential land subsidence has reduced the flow capacity of water-conveyance systems in these areas, exacerbating flood hazards and affecting the delivery of irrigation water. Vertical land-surface changes during 2007–2014 were determined by using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Continuous Global Positioning System (CGPS), and extensometer data. Results of the InSAR analysis indicate that about 7600 km2 subsided 50–540 mm during 2008–2010; CGPS and extensometer data indicate that these rates continued or accelerated through December 2014. The maximum InSAR-measured rate of 270 mm yr−1 occurred in the El Nido area, and is among the largest rates ever measured in the SJV. In the Pixley area, the maximum InSAR-measured rate during 2008–2010 was 90 mm yr−1. Groundwater was an important part of the water supply in both areas, and pumping increased when land use changed or when surface water was less available. This increased pumping caused groundwater-level declines to near or below historical lows during the drought periods 2007–2009 and 2012–present. Long-term groundwater-level and land-subsidence monitoring in the SJV is critical for understanding the interconnection of land use, groundwater levels, and subsidence, and evaluating management strategies that help mitigate subsidence hazards to infrastructure while optimizing water supplies.

Persistent high rates of smoking among Israeli Arab males with concomitant decrease among Jews.

PubMed

Baron-Epel, Orna; Keinan-Boker, Lital; Weinstein, Ruth; Shohat, Tamy

2010-12-01

During the last few decades much effort has been invested into lowering smoking rates due to its heavy burden on the population's health and on costs for the health care services. To compare trends in smoking rates between adult Arab men and Jewish men and women during 2000-2008. Six random telephone surveys were conducted by the Israel Center for Disease Control in 2000-2008 to investigate smoking rates. The number of respondents was 24,976 Jewish men and women and 2564 Arab men. The percent of respondents reporting being current smokers was calculated for each population group (Jews and Arabs) by age, gender and education, and were studied in relation to time. Among Jewish men aged 21-64 smoking declined during 2000-2008 by about 3.5%. In the 21-44 age group this decline occurred only among respondents with an academic education. Among Jewish women this decline also occurred at ages 21-64, and in the 45-64 age group this decline was due only to a decline in smoking among those with an academic education. Among Arab men aged 21-64 an increase in smoking rates of about 6.5% was observed among both educated and less educated respondents. Smoking prevalence is declining in Israel among Jews, but not among Arab men. The larger decrease in smoking rates among academics will, in the future, add to the inequalities in health between the lower and higher socioeconomic status groups and between Arabs and Jews. This calls for tailored interventions among the less educated Jews and all Arab men.

Application of empirical Bayes methods to predict the rate of decline in ERG at the individual level among patients with retinitis pigmentosa.

PubMed

Qiu, Weiliang; Sandberg, Michael A; Rosner, Bernard

2018-05-31

Retinitis pigmentosa is one of the most common forms of inherited retinal degeneration. The electroretinogram (ERG) can be used to determine the severity of retinitis pigmentosa-the lower the ERG amplitude, the more severe the disease is. In practice for career, lifestyle, and treatment counseling, it is of interest to predict the ERG amplitude of a patient at a future time. One approach is prediction based on the average rate of decline for individual patients. However, there is considerable variation both in initial amplitude and in rate of decline. In this article, we propose an empirical Bayes (EB) approach to incorporate the variations in initial amplitude and rate of decline for the prediction of ERG amplitude at the individual level. We applied the EB method to a collection of ERGs from 898 patients with 3 or more visits over 5 or more years of follow-up tested in the Berman-Gund Laboratory and observed that the predicted values at the last (kth) visit obtained by using the proposed method based on data for the first k-1 visits are highly correlated with the observed values at the kth visit (Spearman correlation =0.93) and have a higher correlation with the observed values than those obtained based on either the population average decline rate or those obtained based on the individual decline rate. The mean square errors for predicted values obtained by the EB method are also smaller than those predicted by the other methods. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Falling teen pregnancy, birthrates: what's behind the declines?

PubMed

Donovan, P

1998-10-01

About half of the almost 1 million US teenagers who become pregnant each year carry their pregnancies to term and give birth. However, after years of steady increases, teen birthrates in the US are lower and pregnancy rates have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years. Teenage sexual activity is also declining. Over the period 1991-96, the birthrate in the US among teens declined from the 20-year high of 62.1 births/1000 females aged 15-19 to 54.4/1000. This 12% decline comes after a 24% increase in the birthrate between 1986 and 1991. Declines in the teen birthrate were observed for the nation overall, as well as in each state, ranging from 6% in Alabama to 29% in Alaska. The teen birthrate among Blacks declined 21% to reach a record low of 91.4/1000 in 1996, while the rate for Hispanic teens barely changed during 1991-95, but eventually declined 5% during 1995-96 to 101.8/1000. The birthrate among non-Hispanic White teens declined 9% during the period to 48.1/1000, while the birthrate for teens aged 15-17 fell 13% during the period and 9% for 18-19 year olds. Pregnancy rates among women aged 15-19 years declined 14% between 1990 and 1995, to 101.1/1000, the lowest level since the mid-1970s. Although researchers are unsure why teen pregnancy and birthrates have fallen, recent survey data suggest that the declines have occurred because both fewer teens are having sex and more sexually active adolescents are using contraception.

Sustained 35-GHz radiofrequency irradiation induces circulatory failure.

PubMed

Frei, M R; Ryan, K L; Berger, R E; Jauchem, J R

1995-10-01

The objective of this study was to determine the thermal distribution and concomitant cardiovascular changes produced by whole-body exposure of ketamine-anesthetized rats to radiofrequency radiation of millimeter wave (MMW) length. Rats (n = 13) were implanted with a flow probe on the superior mesenteric artery and with a catheter in the carotid artery for the measurement of arterial blood pressure. Temperature was measured at five sites: left (Tsl) and right subcutaneous (sides toward and away From the MMW source, respectively), colonic (Tc), tympanic, and tail. The animals were exposed until death to MMW (35 GHz) at a power density that resulted in a whole-body specific absorption rate of 13 W/kg. During irradiation, the Tsl increase was significantly greater than the Tc increase. Heart rate increased throughout irradiation. Mean arterial pressure (MAP) as well maintained until Tsl reached 42 degrees C, at which point MAP declined until death. Mesenteric vascular resistance tended to increase during the early stages of irradiation but began to decrease at Tsl > or = 41 degrees C. The declines in both mesenteric vascular resistance and MAP began at Tc < 37.5 degrees C; death occurred at Tc = 40.3 +/- .3 degrees C and Tsl = 48.0 +/- .4 degrees C. These data indicate that circulatory failure and subsequent death may occur when skin temperature is rapidly elevated, even in the presence of relatively normal Tc.

Temporal variation in survival and recovery rates of lesser scaup

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, Todd W.; Afton, Alan D.; Anteau, Michael J.; Koons, David N.; Nicolai, Chris

2016-01-01

Management of lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) has been hindered by access to reliable data on population trajectories and vital rates. We conducted a Bayesian analysis of historical (1951–2011) band-recovery data throughout North America to estimate annual survival and recovery rates for juvenile and adult male and female lesser scaup to determine if increasing harvest or declining survival rates have contributed to population changes and to determine if harvest has been primarily additive or compensatory. Annual recovery rates were low, ranging from 1% to 4% for adults and 2% to 10% for juveniles during most years, with trend models indicating that recovery rates have declined through time for all age–sex classes. Annual survival (mid-Aug to mid-Aug) averaged 0.402 (σ ̂ 0.043) for juvenile males, 0.416 (σ ̂ 0.067) for juvenile females, 0.689 (σ ̂ 0.109) for adult males, and 0.602 (σ ̂ 0.115) for adult females, where σ ̂ represents an estimate of annual process variation in each survival rate. Annual survival rates exhibited no evidence of long-term declines or negative correlations with annual recovery rates (i.e., an index of harvest intensity) for any age–sex class, suggesting that declining fecundity was the most likely explanation for population declines during 1975–2005. We conclude that hunting mortality played a minor role in affecting population dynamics of lesser scaup and waterfowl managers could take a less cautious approach in managing harvest, especially if recruiting or maintaining waterfowl hunters are viewed as important management objectives.

Recent trends in elderly suicide rates in England and Wales.

PubMed

Hoxey, K; Shah, A

2000-03-01

The proportion of elderly in the population is increasing due to increased life expectancy and falling birth rate, and suicide rates increase with age. This study examined the following in England and Wales: (i) recent trends in the elderly suicide rate; (ii) recent trends in method-specific elderly suicide rate; (iii) the relationship between elderly population size and elderly suicide rate in recent years; and (iv) the sex difference in overall and method-specific elderly suicide rate. Data on the various suicide variables were ascertained from the annually published mortality data for years 1985 to 1996. The main findings of this study were: (i) there is a trend towards decline in the overall pure and combined suicide rates for elderly men and women over the 12 year study period; (ii) the main contributors to this decline are suicides due to poisoning by solid and liquid substances (E950), hanging, strangulation and suffocation (E953), drowning (E954), firearms and explosives (E955), and jumping from high places (E957); (iii) the overall pure and combined suicide rates and that for most categories of suicide was higher in men compared to women; and (iv) suicide rates decreased with an increase in the elderly population size. Suicide rates can decline due to a number of reasons. The challenge now is to ensure further decline in suicide rates to meet the Our Healthier Nations target.

Effects of Sex and Education on Cognitive Change Over a 27-Year Period in Older Adults: The Rancho Bernardo Study.

PubMed

Reas, Emilie T; Laughlin, Gail A; Bergstrom, Jaclyn; Kritz-Silverstein, Donna; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; McEvoy, Linda K

2017-08-01

This study investigated how cognitive function changes with age and whether rates of decline vary by sex or education in a large, homogenous longitudinal cohort characterized by high participation rates, long duration of follow-up, and minimal loss to follow-up. Between 1988 and 2016, 2,225 community-dwelling participants of the Rancho Bernardo Study, aged 31 to 99 years at their initial cognitive assessment, completed neuropsychological testing approximately every 4 years, over a maximum 27-year follow-up. Linear mixed effects regression models defined sex-specific cognitive trajectories, adjusting for education and retest effects. Significant decline across all cognitive domains began around age 65 years and accelerated after age 80 years. Patterns of decline were generally similar between sexes, although men declined more rapidly than women on the global function test. Higher education was associated with slower decline on the tests of executive and global functions. After excluding 517 participants with evidence of cognitive impairment, accelerating decline with age remained for all tests, and women declined more rapidly than men on the executive function test. Accelerating decline with advancing age occurs across multiple cognitive domains in community-dwelling older adults, with few differences in rates of decline between men and women. Higher education may provide some protection against executive and global function decline with age. These findings better characterize normal cognitive aging, a critical prerequisite for identifying individuals at risk for cognitive impairment, and lay the groundwork for future studies of health and behavioral factors that affect age-related decline in this cohort. Copyright © 2017 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Treatment of High Flow Arteriovenous Fistulas after Successful Renal Transplant Using a Simple Precision Banding Technique.

PubMed

Gkotsis, Georgios; Jennings, William C; Malik, Jan; Mallios, Alexandros; Taubman, Kevin

2016-02-01

Observation versus ligation of a functional arteriovenous fistula (AVF) after successful renal transplantation (SRT) has been a controversial topic of debate. Congestive heart failure and pulmonary hypertension are common in dialysis patients, and more frequent when vascular access flow is excessive. Renal transplant failure may occur in up to 34% of patients after 5 years, therefore maintaining a moderate flow AVF appears warranted. We review SRT patients with high flow-AVFs (HF-AVF) and clinical signs of heart failure where a modified precision banding procedure was used for access flow reduction. Patients referred for HF-AVF evaluation after SRT were identified and records reviewed retrospectively. In addition to recording clinical signs of heart failure, each patient had ultrasound AVF flow measurement before and after temporary AVF occlusion of the access by digital compression. Pulse rate and the presence or absence of a cardiac murmur was noted before and after AVF compression. Adequacy of access flow restriction was evaluated intraoperatively using ultrasound flow measurements, adjusting the banding diameter in 0.5 mm increments to achieve the targeted AVF flow. Twelve patients were evaluated over a 19-month period. Eight (66%) were male and one (8%) obese. Ages were 15-73 years (mean = 42). The AVFs were established 24-86 months previously. The mean pulse rate declined after AVF compression from 90/min to 72/min (range 110-78). Six patients had a precompression cardiac flow murmur that disappeared with temporary AVF compression. One patient with poor cardiac function underwent immediate AVF ligation with dramatic improvement in cardiac status. All other patients underwent a precision banding procedure with real-time flow monitoring. Mean access flow was 2,280 mL/min (1,148-3,320 mL/min) before access banding and was 598 mL/min (481-876) after flow reduction. The clinical signs of heart failure disappeared in all patients. All AVFs remained patent although one individual later requested ligation for cosmesis. Two patients had renal transplant failure and later successfully used the AVF. Follow-up postbanding was 1-18 months (mean = 12). Patients with successful renal transplants and HF-AVFs had resolution of heart failure findings and maintenance of access patency using a modified precision banding procedure. Flow reduction in symptomatic renal transplant patients with elevated access flow is recommended. Further study is warranted to substantiate these recommendations and clarify the appropriate thresholds for such interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulation and prediction the impact of climate change into water resources in Bengawan Solo watershed based on CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sipayung, Sinta B.; Nurlatifah, Amalia; Siswanto, Bambang

2018-05-01

Bengawan Solo Watershed is one of the largest watersheds in Indonesia. This watershed flows in many areas both in Central Java and East Java. Therefore, the water resources condition greatly affects many people. This research will be conducted on prediction of climate change effect on water resources condition in terms of rainfall conditions in Bengawan Solo River Basin. The goal of this research is to know and predict the climate change impact on water resources based on CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmosphere Model) with downscaling baseline (historical) model data from 1949 to 2005 and RCP 4.5 from 2006 to 2069. The modeling data was validated with in-situ data (measurement data). To analyse the water availability condition in Bengawan Solo Watershed, the simulation of river flow and water balance condition were done in Bengawan Solo River. Simulation of river flow and water balance conditions were done with ArcSWAT model using climate data from CCAM, DEM SRTM 90 meter, soil type, and land use data. The results of this simulation indicate there is (i) The CCAM data itself after validation has a pretty good result when compared to the insitu data. Based on CCAM simulation results, it is predicted that in 2040-2069 rainfall in Bengawan Solo River Basin will decrease, to a maximum of only about 1 mm when compared to 1971-2000. (ii) The CCAM rainfall prediction itself shows that rainfall in Bengawan Solo River basin will decline until 2069 although the decline itself is not significant and tends to be negligible (rainfall is considered unchanged) (iii) Both in the DJF and JJA seasons, precipitation is predicted to decline as well despite the significant decline. (iv) The river flow simulation show that the water resources in Bengawan Solo River did not change significantly. This event occurred because the rainfall also did not change greatly and close to 0 mm/month.

The relationship of self-rated function and self-rated health to concurrent functional ability, functional decline, and mortality: findings from the Nun Study.

PubMed

Greiner, P A; Snowdon, D A; Greiner, L H

1996-09-01

We investigated the relationship of self-rated function (i.e., the ability to take care of oneself) and self-rated health to concurrent functional ability, functional decline, and mortality in participants in the Nun Study, a longitudinal study of aging and Alzheimer's disease. A total of 629 of the 678 study participants self-rated their function and health and completed an initial functional assessment in 1991-93. Survivors completed a second assessment in 1993-94. Overall, self-rated function had a stronger relationship to functional ability at the first assessment and to functional decline between the first and second assessments than did self-rated health. Self-rated function also had a stronger relationship to mortality than did self-rated health. Self-rated function may be a better marker of global function than is self-rated health and may be a useful addition to clinical assessment and scientific investigation of the relationships among function, health, and disease.

Analysis of long-term groundwater storage trends in the Wairau aquifer, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wöhling, Thomas; Gosses, Moritz; Davidson, Peter; Wilson, Scott

2016-04-01

The Wairau Aquifer covers a small proportion of the Wairau catchment in the Marlborough District of New Zealand just prior to the river discharging into the sea. The aquifer is almost exclusively recharged by surface water from the Wairau River and serves as the major drinking water resource for Blenheim and the surrounding settlements on the Wairau Plain. Because a small but constantly declining trend in aquifer levels and spring flows have been observed over the past decades, it has been made a high priority by the Marlborough District Council to better understand the limits and the mechanics of the recharge mechanism. While previous research efforts have been centred at water budgets during low-flow conditions and steady-state modelling, this study aims at understanding the dynamics of river-groundwater exchange fluxes using information of Wairau river flows at three new gauging stations, time series of groundwater observations, spring flows and qualitative (soft-)knowledge. Both qualitative and quantitative observations were integrated into a transient numerical MODFLOW model and simulations were conducted with the calibrated model for a 20-year time period. The gravels of the Wairau aquifer are highly conductive with estimated lateral conductivity values exceeding 1km per day. Although there is also evidence for anisotropy of the aquifer materials, it was found that river recharge at the upper slopes of the Wairau aquifer was consistently happening under perched conditions. In addition, exchange fluxes seem to have a functional relationship with river discharge only under low flow conditions while the exchange fluxes appear to be capped at about 16-20 m³/s for medium and large river flows. Therefore, the Wairau aquifer storage seems to be vulnerable more to the occurrence and duration of extreme low flow periods. To analyse this further, we have analysed the frequency and re-occurrence of low flow periods from the Wairau river record and found that the days of flow below a critical threshold in a given year have increased in recent years. To link the river flow record to large-scale climatic drivers, we analysed the precipitation record from several rainfall stations in the Wairau catchment as well as daily time series of precipitation data from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) virtual climate station (VCS) network. The areal annual precipitation totals calculated from the VCS station data show a clear decline of precipitation since 1960. Shorter precipitation records from weather stations in the hilly ranges of the Wairau catchment seem to confirm the trend, while data from stations in the valleys or the Wairau Plains doesn't support the trend. The decline in areal precipitation and the corresponding increase in low flow periods of the Wairau river flows have a strong correspondence to the long-term trend in Wairau aquifer water levels, but other factors such as changes in the river bed morphology could also contribute. The reason for the decline of precipitation in the Wairau catchment is not yet known.

Presence of the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in threatened corroboree frog populations in the Australian Alps.

PubMed

Hunter, David A; Speare, Rick; Marantelli, Gerry; Mendez, Diana; Pietsch, Rod; Osborne, Will

2010-11-01

Since the early 1980s, the southern corroboree frog Pseudophryne corroboree and northern corroboree frog P. pengilleyi have been in a state of decline from their sub-alpine and high montane bog environments on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. To date, there has been no adequate explanation as to what is causing the decline of these species. We investigated the possibility that a pathogen associated with other recent frog declines in Australia, the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, may have been implicated in the decline of the corroboree frogs. We used histology of toe material and real-time PCR of skin swabs to investigate the presence and infection rates with B. dendrobatidis in historic and extant populations of both corroboree frog species. Using histology, we did not detect any B. dendrobatidis infections in corroboree frog populations prior to their decline. However, using the same technique, high rates of infection were observed in populations of both species after the onset of substantial population declines. The real-time PCR screening of skin swabs identified high overall infection rates in extant populations of P. corroboree (between 44 and 59%), while significantly lower rates of infection were observed in low-altitude P. pengilleyi populations (14%). These results suggest that the initial and continued decline of the corroboree frogs may well be attributed to the emergence of B. dendrobatidis in populations of these species.

Modeling potential river management conflicts between frogs and salmonids

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Sarah J. Kupferberg; Margaret M. Lang; Scott McBain; Hart H. Welsh

2016-01-01

Management of regulated rivers for yellow-legged frogs (Rana boylii) and salmonids exemplifies potential conflicts among species adapted to different parts of the natural flow and temperature regimes. Yellow-legged frogs oviposit in rivers in spring and depend on declining flows and warming temperatures for egg and tadpole survival and growth,...

DISTRIBUTION AND COMPOSITION OF DISSOLVED AND PARTICULATE ORGANIC CARBON IN NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY DURING LOW FRESHWATER FLOW CONDITIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The distribution of dissolved and particulate organic matter was studied in northern San Francisco Bay on seven dates during declining flow conditions from April to October 1996. Measurements were made at 3 to 11 stations (usually 8) along the salinity gradient from the Sacrament...

Studying Faculty Flows Using an Interactive Spreadsheet Model. AIR 1997 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Wayne

This paper describes a spreadsheet-based faculty flow model developed and implemented at the University of Calgary (Canada) to analyze faculty retirement, turnover, and salary issues. The study examined whether, given expected faculty turnover, the current salary increment system was sustainable in a stable or declining funding environment, and…

Evaluation of Salivary Flow Rate, pH and Buffer in Pre, Post & Post Menopausal Women on HRT.

PubMed

D R, Mahesh; G, Komali; K, Jayanthi; D, Dinesh; T V, Saikavitha; Dinesh, Preeti

2014-02-01

Climateric is considered to be a natural phase of life which by definition is the period of life starting from decline in ovarian activity until after the end of ovarian function. It is accompanied by various health consequences that include the changes in saliva too. This study was carried out to evaluate the salivary flow rate, pH, buffering capacity in pre-menopausal, post-menopausal and post-menopausal women on HRT. (1) To evaluate the salivary flow rate, pH of resting saliva and stimulated saliva and buffer capacity of stimulated saliva in pre-menopausal, post-menopausal and post-menopausal women on Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT). (2) To compare the above salivary findings between pre-menopausal, post-menopausal and post-menopausal women on HRT. The study was carried out on 60 patients. These patients were divided into three groups of 20 patients: Group 1: Pre-menopausal women (control), Group 2: post-menopausal women (case), Group 3: post-menopausal women on HRT (case). The control group consisted of 20 women volunteers, having regular ovulatory menstrual cycles with no known systemic illness and deleterious habits and Group 2 consists of 20 post-menopausal women and Group 3 will consist of 20 post-menopausal women on HRT. After clearing the mouth by swallowing, stimulated saliva was collected after chewing paraffin for 10 mins in to a glass centrifuge tube graded in 0.1 mL increments up to 10mL.in rare cases the collection time will be reduced or extended (5-15 min), salivary flow rate will be determined as ml/min, immediately after collection, pH was determined by dipping pH test paper directly into the sample of oral fluid, salivary buffer capacity was determined by using saliva check buffer kit (GC corporation). The data obtained was statistically evaluated using chi-square test, fisher exact test ANOVA analysis. In our study we found salivary flow rate significantly lower in the post-menopausal women in comparison with the menstruating women and also there was improvement in the flow rate in individuals who were on HRT, it was also observed that salivary pH of the post-menopausal group was significantly lower than that of the control group, statistically significant difference in buffer capacity values was found between the groups however buffer capacity values were higher in the post-menopausal group than the control group. From the above study it is clear that post-menopausal women will present with oral discomfort, while HRT can improve the same. Hence our role as physicians and health care providers is to incorporate preventive dental health care in post-menopausal women and clearly inform patients about both the benefits and the limitations of HRT.

Managing American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) population qrowth by targeting nesting season vital rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felton, Shilo K.; Hostetter, Nathan J.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2017-01-01

In populations of long-lived species, adult survival typically has a relatively high influence on population growth. From a management perspective, however, adult survival can be difficult to increase in some instances, so other component rates must be considered to reverse population declines. In North Carolina, USA, management to conserve the American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) targets component vital rates related to fecundity, specifically nest and chick survival. The effectiveness of such a management approach in North Carolina was assessed by creating a three-stage female-based deterministic matrix model. Isoclines were produced from the matrix model to evaluate minimum nest and chick survival rates necessary to reverse population decline, assuming all other vital rates remained stable at mean values. Assuming accurate vital rates, breeding populations within North Carolina appear to be declining. To reverse this decline, combined nest and chick survival would need to increase from 0.14 to ≤ 0.27, a rate that appears to be attainable based on historical estimates. Results are heavily dependent on assumptions of other vital rates, most notably adult survival, revealing the need for accurate estimates of all vital rates to inform management actions. This approach provides valuable insights for evaluating conservation goals for species of concern.

Contrast-enhanced ultrasound measurement of pancreatic blood flow dynamics predicts type 1 diabetes progression in preclinical models.

PubMed

St Clair, Joshua R; Ramirez, David; Passman, Samantha; Benninger, Richard K P

2018-05-01

In type 1 diabetes (T1D), immune-cell infiltration into the islets of Langerhans (insulitis) and β-cell decline occurs many years before diabetes clinically presents. Non-invasively detecting insulitis and β-cell decline would allow the diagnosis of eventual diabetes, and provide a means to monitor therapeutic intervention. However, there is a lack of validated clinical approaches for specifically and non-invasively imaging disease progression leading to T1D. Islets have a denser microvasculature that reorganizes during diabetes. Here we apply contrast-enhanced ultrasound measurements of pancreatic blood-flow dynamics to non-invasively and predictively assess disease progression in T1D pre-clinical models. STZ-treated mice, NOD mice, and adoptive-transfer mice demonstrate altered islet blood-flow dynamics prior to diabetes onset, consistent with islet microvasculature reorganization. These assessments predict both time to diabetes onset and future responders to antiCD4-mediated disease prevention. Thus contrast-enhanced ultrasound measurements of pancreas blood-flow dynamics may provide a clinically deployable predictive marker for disease progression in pre-symptomatic T1D and therapeutic reversal.

The Effects of Antifoam Agent on Dead End Filtration Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamad Pauzi, S.; Ahmad, N.; Yahya, M. F.; Arifin, M. A.

2018-05-01

The formation of foam as a result from introducing gases during cell culture process in the bioprocess industry has indirectly affected the throughput of the product of interest. Due to that, antifoams were developed and established as one of the means to minimize the formation of foam in the cell culture. There are many types of antifoams but the silicone-type of antifoams are widely used in the bioprocess industry. Although the establishment of antifoam has aided the cell culture process, the impacts of its presence in the cell culture to the downstream process especially the dead end filtration is not widely discussed. The findings in the study emphasized on the dead end filtration performance that includes flux rate profile and the resulted filtration capacity. In this study, the concentrations of antifoam injected into the solution were varied from 0.2% v/v – 1.0% v/v and the solutions were filtered using constant flow method. The resulted maximum pressure readings and final flux rates indicated that the resistance exerted to the feed flow rate increased as the concentration of antifoam loaded in the solution increased. This later has led to the decline in the flux rates with percentage reduction between 32 – 68%. The calculated filter capacity for flux rate of 1000LMH ranged from 53 – 63L/m2 while it is in the range of 40 – 43L/m2 for flux rate of 2000LMH. The presence of antifoam agents in the feed load was determined to have negative effects on the dead end filtration performance and it may reduce the efficiency of the dead end filtration process.

Ecological correlates of fish movement in a network of Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albanese, B.; Angermeier, P.L.; Dorai-Raj, S.

2004-01-01

Identifying factors that influence fish movement is a key step in predicting how populations respond to environmental change. Using mark-recapture (four species) and trap capture (eight species) data, we examined relationships between three attributes of movement and 15 ecological variables. The probability of emigrating from a reach was positively related to intermittency (one species) and body size (one species) and negatively related to distance from the mainstem creek (two species) and habitat complexity (one species). The number of fish moving upstream through traps was positively related to increases in flow (five species), day length (three species), and water temperature (two species); the number moving through downstream traps was positively associated with increases in flow (three species). Distance moved was greater for fish moving through unsuitable reaches (one species). Floods have a pervasive effect on fish movement, and human activities that affect flows will have widespread implications. The importance of other factors varies interspecifically, which may translate into variation in persistence and colonization rates. For example, species that exhibit reach fidelity in complex habitats may increase movement if habitats are homogenized. These species may suffer population declines because of the cost of increased movement and may ultimately be replaced by ecological generalists.

Demographics and diaspora, gender and genealogy: anthropological notes on Greek population policy.

PubMed

Paxson, H

1997-01-01

Since World War II, Greece's birth rate has fallen into a worsening decline. With the steady emigration of Greeks throughout the century to North America, Australia, and Germany, Greece has experienced one of the most rapid population declines in Europe. In 1991, the PASOK government convened a special Parliamentary Commission to study the demographic problem and develop recommendations for its resolution. Released in 1993, and comparing Greece's depressed population growth rates with the markedly higher ones of Albania and Turkey, the report argues that the demographic problem is one of national survival because a decline in the population undermines the territorial integrity and national independence of the country. At least half of all pregnancies in Greece end in abortion, and the report attributes 40% of the declining population growth rate to women who have repeat abortions. To confront the population dilemma, Greek officials are downplaying the diaspora and encouraging women at home to produce more babies. Maternal pensions forwarded by the state as family and population policies are being criticized by Athenian women as a means of professionalizing motherhood and perpetuating a limited vision of female adulthood. The author explores why the declining birth rate is considered to be such a problem in Greece, even though the other countries of Europe are also experiencing birth rate declines; why and how women are blamed for the demographic situation; and why the state, despite its vehement rhetoric, has failed to implement a family policy capable of boosting fertility.

Effects of groundwater withdrawals associated with combined-cycle combustion turbine plants in west Tennessee and northern Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haugh, Connor J.

2012-01-01

The Mississippi Embayment Regional Aquifer Study groundwater-flow model was used to simulate the potential effects on future groundwater withdrawals at five powerplant sites-Gleason, Weakley County, Tennessee; Tenaska, Haywood County, Tennessee; Jackson, Madison County, Tennessee; Southaven, DeSoto County, Mississippi; and Magnolia, Benton County, Mississippi. The scenario used in the simulation consisted of a 30-year average water-use period followed by a 30-day peak water-demand period. Effects of the powerplants on the aquifer system were evaluated by comparing the difference in simulated water levels in the aquifers at the end of the scenario (30 years plus 30 days) with and without the combined-cycle-plant withdrawals. Simulated potentiometric surface declines in source aquifers at potential combined-cycle-plant sites ranged from 56 feet in the upper Wilcox aquifer at the Magnolia site to 20 feet in the Memphis aquifer at the Tenaska site. The affected areas in the source aquifers at the sites delineated by the 4-foot potentiometric surface-decline contour ranged from 11,362 acres at Jackson to 535,143 acres at Southaven. The extent of areas affected by potentiometric surface declines was similar at the Gleason and Magnolia sites. The affected area at the Tenaska site was smaller than the affected areas at the other sites, most likely as a result of lower withdrawal rates and greater aquifer thickness. The extent of effect was smallest at the Jackson site, where the nearby Middle Fork Forked Deer River may act as a recharge boundary. Additionally, the Jackson site lies in the Memphis aquifer outcrop area where model-simulated recharge rates are higher than in areas where the Memphis aquifer underlies less permeable deposits. The potentiometric surface decline in aquifers overlying or underlying a source aquifer was generally 2 feet or less at all the sites except Gleason. At the Gleason site, withdrawals from the Memphis aquifer resulted in declines of as much as 9 feet in the underlying Fort Pillow aquifer. The simulated potentiometric surface change occurring in the Fort Pillow aquifer appears to be the result of leakage through the Flour Island Formation separating the Memphis and Fort Pillow aquifers where this confining unit is thin, sandy, or absent.

Achieving the Goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy: Declining HIV Diagnoses, Improving Clinical Outcomes, and Diminishing Racial/Ethnic Disparities in King County, WA (2004-2013).

PubMed

Golden, Matthew R; Bennett, Amy B; Dombrowski, Julia C; Buskin, Susan E

2016-05-01

The US National HIV/AIDS Strategy defines national objectives related to HIV prevention and care. The extent to which US cities are meeting those objectives is uncertain. We analyzed King County, WA, HIV surveillance data collected between 2004 and 2013. The study population included 9539 persons diagnosed as having and living with HIV infection and 3779 persons with newly diagnosed HIV infection. Between 2004 and 2013, the rate of new HIV diagnosis decreased from 18.4 to 13.2 per 100,000 residents (decline of 28%); AIDS diagnosis rates declined 42% from 12 to 7 per 100,000; and age-adjusted death rates decreased from 27 to 15 per 1000 persons living with HIV/AIDS (decline of 42%; P<0.0001 for all 3 trends). The rate of new HIV diagnosis declined 26% among men who have sex with men (MSM; P=0.0002), with the largest decline occurring in black MSM (44%). Among 8679 individuals with laboratory results reported to National HIV Surveillance System from 2006 through 2013, viral suppression (viral load<200 copies/mL) increased from 45% to 86% (P<0.0001), with all racial/ethnic groups achieving greater than 80% viral suppression in 2013. The rates of new HIV diagnosis, AIDS diagnoses, and mortality in persons living with HIV in King County, WA, have significantly declined over the last decade. These changes have occurred concurrent with a dramatic increase in HIV viral suppression and have affected diverse populations, including MSM and African American MSM. These findings demonstrate substantial local success in achieving the goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy.

Declining incidence of chickenpox in the absence of universal childhood immunisation

PubMed Central

Lowe, G; Salmon, R; Thomas, D; Evans, M

2004-01-01

Objective: To examine the epidemiology of chickenpox in Wales from 1986 to 2001. Design: Descriptive analysis of chickenpox consultations reported by the Welsh general practice sentinel surveillance scheme for infectious diseases, compared with annual shingles consultation rates from the same scheme to exclude reporting fatigue and data from a general practice morbidity database to validate results. Setting: A total of 226 884 patients registered with one of 30 volunteer general practices participating in the sentinel surveillance scheme. Main outcome measures: Age standardised and age specific incidence of chickenpox. Results: Crude and age standardised consultation rates for chickenpox declined from 1986 to 2001, with loss of epidemic cycling. Rates remained stable in 0–4 year olds but declined in all older age groups, particularly those aged 5–14 years. Shingles consultation rates remained constant over the same period. Data from the morbidity database displayed similar trends. Conclusion: General practitioner consultation rates for chickenpox are declining in Wales except in pre-school children. These findings are unlikely to be a reporting artefact but may be explained either by an overall decline in transmission or increased social mixing in those under 5 years old, through formal child care and earlier school entry, and associated increasing rates of mild or subclinical infection in this age group. Further investigation, particularly by serological surveillance, is necessary before universal varicella immunisation can be considered in the UK. PMID:15383443

[Peruvian demographic transition].

PubMed

Carbajal Chirinos, C

1988-06-01

The demographic transition is conceptualized as the historic change from high to low fertility and mortality rates in a population. Peru's population was reduced by an estimated 80% as a result of new diseases, destruction of the economy, and the brutal regime of colonial exploitation after the Spanish conquest. From colonial times to the least the 1940s, Peru's principal population problem was the scarcity of manpower. The population grew at an annual rate of about .03% between 1650 and 1800, increasing to about 1.3% between 1876 and 1940. High fertility throughout the 19th century and a stabilization of mortality due to reduced incidence and deadliness of epidemics contributed to the increased growth rate. In the 1940s the process of demographic transition was initiated by abrupt declines in mortality. The crude death rate declined from 27/1000 in 1940 to 16/1000 in 1961 and 9/1000 in 1988, with the rate still declining. Fertility remained high and possibly increased slightly. The crude birth rate was estimated at 45/1000 in 1940 and 45.4/1000 in 1961. Improvements in infant and general mortality rates in developing countries like Peru result from diffusion of technological advances in prevention and control of diseases and improvement in health services rather than from changes in the economic and social structure. The 3rd phase of the demographic transition began with declines in fertility from 45.4/1000 in 1961 to 42.0/1000 in 1972 and 36.0/1000 in 1981. Despite declines, mortality and fertility continue to be elevated in Peru. The theory of demographic transition views the reduction of infant mortality, improvements in health and educational conditions and the condition of women, and more equitable income distribution as essential for a true decline in birth rates. In Peru, however, fertility has declined in a context of deteriorating living conditions and in the absence of effective family planning programs. The process of demographic transition must be accelerated, which will require improvements in education, income, and availability of sanitary services among other changes.

Child mortality after Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Kanter, Robert K

2010-03-01

Age-specific pediatric health consequences of community disruption after Hurricane Katrina have not been analyzed. Post-Katrina vital statistics are unavailable. The objectives of this study were to validate an alternative method to estimate child mortality rates in the greater New Orleans area and compare pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates. Pre-Katrina 2004 child mortality was estimated from death reports in the local daily newspaper and validated by comparison with pre-Katrina data from the Louisiana Department of Health. Post-Katrina child mortality rates were analyzed as a measure of health consequences. Newspaper-derived estimates of mortality rates appear to be valid except for possible underreporting of neonatal rates. Pre-Katrina and post-Katrina mortality rates were similar for all age groups except infants. Post-Katrina, a 92% decline in mortality rate occurred for neonates (<28 days), and a 57% decline in mortality rate occurred for postneonatal infants (28 days-1 year). The post-Katrina decline in infant mortality rate exceeds the pre-Katrina discrepancy between newspaper-derived and Department of Health-reported rates. A declining infant mortality rate raises questions about persistent displacement of high-risk infants out of the region. Otherwise, there is no evidence of long-lasting post-Katrina excess child mortality. Further investigation of demographic changes would be of interest to local decision makers and planners for recovery after public health emergencies in other regions.

A remote sensing-assisted risk rating study to predict oak decline and recovery in the Missouri Ozark Highlands, USA

Treesearch

Cuizhen Wang; Hong S. He; John M. Kabrick

2008-01-01

Forests in the Ozark Highlands underwent widespread oak decline affected by severe droughts in 1999-2000. In this study, the differential normalized difference water index was calculated to detect crown dieback. A multi-factor risk rating system was built to map risk levels of stands. As a quick response to drought, decline in 2000 mostly occurred in stands at low to...

Continued Declines in Teen Births in the United States, 2015.

PubMed

Hamilton, Brady E; Mathews, T J

2016-09-01

•The teen birth rate declined to another historic low for the United States in 2015, down 8% from 2014 to 22.3 births per 1,000 females aged 15-19. •The birth rates for teenagers aged 15-17 and 18-19 declined in 2015 to 9.9 and 40.7, respectively, which are record lows for both groups. •In 2015, birth rates declined to 6.9 for Asian or Pacific Islander, 16.0 for non-Hispanic white, 25.7 for American Indian or Alaska Native, 31.8 for non-Hispanic black, and 34.9 for Hispanic female teenagers aged 15-19. •Birth rates fell to record lows for nearly all race and Hispanic-origin groups of females aged 15-19, 15-17, and 18-19 in 2015. The birth rate for teenagers aged 15-19 has fallen almost continuously since 1991, reaching historic lows for the nation every year since 2009 (1-4). Despite declines in all racial and ethnic groups, teen birth rates continue to vary considerably by race and ethnicity. Moreover, the U.S. teen birth rate remains higher than in other industrialized countries (5). Childbearing by teenagers continues to be a matter of public concern. This report presents the recent and long-term trends and disparity in teen childbearing by race and Hispanic origin. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Therapeutic milestone: stroke declines from the second to the third leading organ- and disease-specific cause of death in the United States.

PubMed

Towfighi, Amytis; Ovbiagele, Bruce; Saver, Jeffrey L

2010-03-01

Stroke mortality rates declined for much of the second half of the 20th century, but recent trends and their relation to other organ- and disease-specific causes of death have not been characterized. Using the National Center for Health Statistics mortality data, leading organ- and disease-specific causes of death were assessed for the most recent 10-year period (1996 to 2005) in the United States with a specific focus on stroke deaths. Age-adjusted stroke death rates declined by 25.4%; as a result, lung cancer (which only declined by 9.2%) surpassed stroke as the second leading cause of death in 2003. Despite a 31.9% decline in age-adjusted ischemic heart disease death rates, it remains the leading cause of death. Stroke is now the fifth leading cause of death in men and the fourth leading cause of death in whites but remains the second leading cause of death in women and blacks. With stroke death rates decreasing substantially in the United States from 1996 to 2005, stroke moved from the second to the third leading organ- and disease-specific cause of death. Women and blacks may warrant attention for targeted stroke prevention and treatment because they continue to have disproportionately high stroke death rates.

Elderly suicide rates in the United Kingdom: trends from 1979 to 2002.

PubMed

Shah, Ajit

2007-01-01

The proportion of elderly in the population is increasing due to a falling birth rate and increased life expectancy, and suicide rates increase with age. Trends in elderly suicide rates over a 24-year period, 1979 to 2002, were examined. Differences in suicide rates between elderly men and women and between the age-bands 65 to 74 years and 75+ years were examined. Data was ascertained from the WHO website. Suicide rates for men and women for the age-bands 65 to 74 years and 75+ years declined over the 24-year study period. Suicide rates were higher in men than women for both the age bands. In men, suicide rates were higher in the 75+ age-band than in the 65 to 74 years age-band. Various national initiatives may have contributed to the decline in suicide rates. The challenge will be to sustain the decline, given that the population is ageing and suicide rates generally increase with age.

Potentiometric surfaces of aquifers in the Cockfield Formation in southeastern Arkansas and the Wilcox Group in southern and northeastern Arkansas, 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schrader, Tony P.; Joseph, Robert L.

2000-01-01

The Cockfield and lower Wilcox aquifers are sources of water for local use in southern and northeastern Arkansas, where in 1995 more than 51 million gallons per day of water was withdrawn. During January through April 2000, 54 water-level measurements were made in wells completed in the Cockfield aquifer, 13 water-level measurements were made in wells completed in the lower Wilcox aquifer in southern Arkansas, and 43 water-level measurements were made in wells completed in the lower Wilcox aquifer in northeastern Arkansas. The potentiometric surface data reveal spatial trends in both aquifers across the study areas. The regional direction of ground-water flow of the Cockfield aquifer is generally toward the east and south, away from the outcrop area, except in areas of intense ground-water withdrawals. The configuration of the potentiometric surface indicates that heavy pumpage has probably altered or reversed the natural direction of flow in these areas. A potentiometric low caused by the pumpage near Greenville, Mississippi, extends into Chicot, Desha, and Drew Counties. Water levels in five wells showed average declines between 0.5 and 0.8 foot per year. The regional direction of ground-water flow in the lower Wilcox aquifers is generally east and south, away from the outcrop, except in areas of intense ground-water withdrawals. Potentiometric depressions, where flow is toward centers of pumping, indicate that heavy pumpage has probably altered or reversed the natural direction of flow. Two potentiometric depressions are centered in the vicinity of Paragould and West Memphis, Arkansas, where ground-water withdrawals probably have altered the natural direction of flow. Long-term hydrographs of seven wells show water-level declines in the lower Wilcox aquifer in northeastern Arkansas. The average water-level decline in two wells was between 0.8 and 1.0 foot per year and in five wells was between 1.2 and 1.8 foot per year.

Teen Birth Rate. CTS Facts at a Glance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Kristin Anderson, Comp.; Papillo, Angela Romano, Comp.; Williams, Stephanie, Comp.; Jager, Justin, Comp.; Jones, Fanette, Comp.

This fact sheet presents several data tables related to teen pregnancy, birth rates, abortion, contraceptive use, and sexually transmitted diseases. The data reveal that during the 1990s, rates of teen childbearing have declined, returning to the levels reached in the mid-1980s. Declines come from a lower proportion of teens having sex and a…

Abrupt Decline in Tuberculosis among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States

PubMed Central

Baker, Brian J.; Winston, Carla A.; Liu, Yecai; France, Anne Marie; Cain, Kevin P.

2016-01-01

While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB) cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1) changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2) changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3) changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry), we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases) beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000–2007) and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011–2014). Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%–100%) the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry), we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases) that resulted entirely (100%) from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control) as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted testing of high-risk subgroups among non-recent entrants) will be necessary to achieve further declines in TB morbidity among foreign-born persons. PMID:26863004

The influence of climate, topography and land-use on the hydrology of ephemeral upland catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, E.; Webb, J.; Dresel, E.

2016-12-01

We report on an on-going project aimed at determining the effects of climate variability and land use change on water resources in ephemeral productive catchments. Meteorological data (including rainfall, solar radiation, air temperature, humidity and wind speed), streamflow and groundwater levels were collected continuously for over five years in seven ephemeral catchments in southeastern Australia. The catchments, dominated by either pasture for grazing (four) or Eucalyptus globulus (blue gum) plantations of different ages (three), were located in three different geological settings. Rainfall varied from higher than the long-term average of this area for the initial years of the study period to much drier than the long-term average for the last two years. Groundwater levels in the farm sites remained stable or slightly increased through the study period, while levels declined in all the plantation catchments, where evapotranspiration rates were greater than rainfall. The trees intercept groundwater recharge and in some areas of the catchments directly access groundwater. Streamflow occurred mainly during winter, with short-term flows in summer caused by sporadic large rainfall events. Despite the large annual rainfall variability, flow rates in each year were similar in most catchments, with the duration of flow being important in determining the annual flow. The frequency rather than the amount of rainfall events determines the generation of streamflow in the two catchments with steeper slopes. The effect of the tree plantations on streamflow varied from a substantial reduction in one catchment to no effect in another, where the tree rows are oriented predominantly downslope, allowing greater runoff. In the third plantation catchment, geology is the main driver of runoff due to capture into underlying karst conduits.

Coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes controlling variability of nitrogen species in streamflow during autumn in an upland forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Shanley, James B.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Kendall, Carol; Doctor, Daniel H.

2014-01-01

Autumn is a season of dynamic change in forest streams of the northeastern United States due to effects of leaf fall on both hydrology and biogeochemistry. Few studies have explored how interactions of biogeochemical transformations, various nitrogen sources, and catchment flow paths affect stream nitrogen variation during autumn. To provide more information on this critical period, we studied (1) the timing, duration, and magnitude of changes to stream nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and ammonium concentrations; (2) changes in nitrate sources and cycling; and (3) source areas of the landscape that most influence stream nitrogen. We collected samples at higher temporal resolution for a longer duration than typical studies of stream nitrogen during autumn. This sampling scheme encompassed the patterns and extremes that occurred during base flow and stormflow events of autumn. Base flow nitrate concentrations decreased by an order of magnitude from 5.4 to 0.7 µmol L−1 during the week when most leaves fell from deciduous trees. Changes to rates of biogeochemical transformations during autumn base flow explained the low nitrate concentrations; in-stream transformations retained up to 72% of the nitrate that entered a stream reach. A decrease of in-stream nitrification coupled with heterotrophic nitrate cycling were primary factors in the seasonal nitrate decline. The period of low nitrate concentrations ended with a storm event in which stream nitrate concentrations increased by 25-fold. In the ensuing weeks, peak stormflow nitrate concentrations progressively decreased over closely spaced, yet similarly sized events. Most stormflow nitrate originated from nitrification in near-stream areas with occasional, large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate, which has rarely been reported for nonsnowmelt events. A maximum input of 33% unprocessed atmospheric nitrate to the stream occurred during one event. Large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate show direct and rapid effects on forest streams that may be widespread, although undocumented, throughout nitrogen-polluted temperate forests. In contrast to a week-long nitrate decline during peak autumn litterfall, base flow DON concentrations increased after leaf fall and remained high for 2 months. Dissolved organic nitrogen was hydrologically flushed to the stream from riparian soils during stormflow. In contrast to distinct seasonal changes in base flow nitrate and DON concentrations, ammonium concentrations were typically at or below the detection limit, similar to the rest of the year. Our findings reveal couplings among catchment flow paths, nutrient sources, and transformations that control seasonal extremes of stream nitrogen in forested landscapes.

Declines in stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Europe between 2004 and 2010: results from the Euro-Peristat project.

PubMed

Zeitlin, Jennifer; Mortensen, Laust; Cuttini, Marina; Lack, Nicholas; Nijhuis, Jan; Haidinger, Gerald; Blondel, Béatrice; Hindori-Mohangoo, Ashna D

2016-06-01

Stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates declined in Europe between 2004 and 2010. We hypothesised that declines might be greater for countries with higher mortality in 2004 and disproportionally affect very preterm infants at highest risk. Data about live births, stillbirths and neonatal deaths by gestational age (GA) were collected using a common protocol by the Euro-Peristat project in 2004 and 2010. We analysed stillbirths at ≥28 weeks GA in 22 countries and live births ≥24 weeks GA for neonatal mortality in 18 countries. Per cent changes over time were assessed by calculating risk ratios (RR) for stillbirth, neonatal mortality and preterm birth rates in 2010 vs 2004. We used meta-analysis techniques to derive pooled RR using random-effects models overall, by GA subgroups and by mortality level in 2004. Between 2004 and 2010, stillbirths declined by 17% (95% CI 10% to 23%), with a range from 1% to 39% by country. Neonatal mortality declined by 29% (95% CI 23% to 35%) with a range from 9% to 67%. Preterm birth rates did not change: 0% (95% CI -3% to 3%). Mortality declines were of a similar magnitude at all GA; mortality levels in 2004 were not associated with RRs. Stillbirths and neonatal deaths declined at all gestational ages in countries with both high and low levels of mortality in 2004. These results raise questions about how low-mortality countries achieve continued declines and highlight the importance of improving care across the GA spectrum. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945-1979.

PubMed

Sweet, J A; Rindfuss, R R

1983-01-01

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.

Apolipoprotein E e4 allele is associated with more rapid motor decline in older persons.

PubMed

Buchman, Aron S; Boyle, Patricia A; Wilson, Robert S; Beck, Todd L; Kelly, Jeremiah F; Bennett, David A

2009-01-01

We tested the hypothesis that apolipoprotein E allele status predicts the rate of motor decline in the elderly. Eight hundred seventy-six older participants without dementia underwent baseline and annual motor testing for up to 10 years. In a generalized estimating equation controlling for age, sex, and education, motor function declined by about 0.03 U/y. The presence of epsilon4 allele was associated with a 2-fold increase in rate of motor decline epsilon4 allele x time: estimate=-0.027 (SE 0.012, P=0.025)]. The association of epsilon4 allele with motor decline persisted even after controlling for cognitive status, race, body mass index, vascular risk factors, and diseases. Further analyses suggested that the association of epsilon4 with motor decline was for the most part explained by the association between epsilon4 allele and change in muscle strength. These results suggest that the presence of epsilon4 allele is a risk factor for more rapid motor decline in the elderly.

26 CFR 1.167(b)-2 - Declining balance method.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Declining balance method. 1.167(b)-2 Section 1... Declining balance method. (a) Application of method. Under the declining balance method a uniform rate is.... While salvage is not taken into account in determining the annual allowances under this method, in no...

The effect of donepezil on increased regional cerebral blood flow in the posterior cingulate cortex of a patient with Parkinson's disease dementia.

PubMed

Imamura, Keiko; Wada-Isoe, Kenji; Kowa, Hisanori; Tanabe, Yoshio; Nakashima, Kenji

2008-01-01

It has been reported that the cholinesterase inhibitor, donepezil, improves cognitive decline in patients with Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD). However, this improvement was dominant for frontal lobe dysfunction, and the increase in the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score was minimal. We report a PDD patient with a decline of regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) in the posterior cingulate cortex, precunei, and bilateral parietotemporal association cortex, as determined by single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) using the easy Z-scores imaging system (e-ZIS). Upon administration of donepezil, both the rCBF and MMSE score increased. The effectiveness of donepezil may vary based on the rCBF pattern in PDD.

WCPSS High School Graduation Rates: 4-Year and 5-Year Cohort Rates 2011-12. Measuring Up. D&A Report No. 13.04

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Regan, Roger

2013-01-01

The Wake County Public School System (WCPSS) four-year cohort graduation rate declined slightly to 80.6% in 2011-12 from 80.9% in the previous year. Disaggregated graduation rates for most racial and ethnic groups stayed nearly the same or declined slightly in 2011-12, but the rate for African-American students rose from 67.9% to 69.6%. The other…

The Decline in Mobility and Its Impact on Passenger Travel

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-01

Residential mobility rates in the United States (US) have historically been among the highest in the world (Molloy et al, 2011); however, these rates have been in steady decline for the last two decades. While most planning models have ignored migrat...

Paradoxical physiological transitions from aging to late life in Drosophila.

PubMed

Shahrestani, Parvin; Quach, Julie; Mueller, Laurence D; Rose, Michael R

2012-02-01

In a variety of organisms, adulthood is divided into aging and late life, where aging is a period of exponentially increasing mortality rates and late life is a period of roughly plateaued mortality rates. In this study we used ∼57,600 Drosophila melanogaster from six replicate populations to examine the physiological transitions from aging to late life in four functional characters that decline during aging: desiccation resistance, starvation resistance, time spent in motion, and negative geotaxis. Time spent in motion and desiccation resistance declined less quickly in late life compared to their patterns of decline during aging. Negative geotaxis declined at a faster rate in late life compared to its rate of decline during aging. These results yield two key findings: (1) Late-life physiology is distinct from the physiology of aging, in that there is not simply a continuation of the physiological trends which characterize aging; and (2) late life physiology is complex, in that physiological characters vary with respect to their stabilization, deceleration, or acceleration in the transition from aging to late life. These findings imply that a correct understanding of adulthood requires identifying and appropriately characterizing physiology during properly delimited late-life periods as well as aging periods.

Occupational cognitive requirements and late-life cognitive aging.

PubMed

Pool, Lindsay R; Weuve, Jennifer; Wilson, Robert S; Bültmann, Ute; Evans, Denis A; Mendes de Leon, Carlos F

2016-04-12

To examine whether occupational cognitive requirements, as a marker of adulthood cognitive activity, are associated with late-life cognition and cognitive decline. Main lifetime occupation information for 7,637 participants aged >65 years of the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP) was linked with standardized data on worker attributes and job characteristics from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET). Ratings of cognitive processes required in 10 work-related tasks were used to create a summary measure of occupational cognitive requirements (possible range 0-7). Multivariable-adjusted linear mixed models were used to estimate the association of occupational cognitive requirements score (OCRS) with cognitive function and rate of cognitive decline. Higher OCRS corresponded to significantly better late-life cognitive performance at baseline in 1993 (p < 0.001) and to slower decline in global cognitive function over time (p = 0.004). Within a genotyped subsample (n = 4,104), the associations of OCRS with rate of cognitive decline did not differ significantly by APOE ε4 carriership (p = 0.11). Findings suggest that occupational cognitive requirements are associated with better cognition and a slower rate of cognitive decline in older age. Adulthood cognitive activity may contribute to cognitive reserve in late life. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

Paradoxical Physiological Transitions from Aging to Late Life in Drosophila

PubMed Central

Quach, Julie; Mueller, Laurence D.; Rose, Michael R.

2012-01-01

Abstract In a variety of organisms, adulthood is divided into aging and late life, where aging is a period of exponentially increasing mortality rates and late life is a period of roughly plateaued mortality rates. In this study we used ∼57,600 Drosophila melanogaster from six replicate populations to examine the physiological transitions from aging to late life in four functional characters that decline during aging: desiccation resistance, starvation resistance, time spent in motion, and negative geotaxis. Time spent in motion and desiccation resistance declined less quickly in late life compared to their patterns of decline during aging. Negative geotaxis declined at a faster rate in late life compared to its rate of decline during aging. These results yield two key findings: (1) Late-life physiology is distinct from the physiology of aging, in that there is not simply a continuation of the physiological trends which characterize aging; and (2) late life physiology is complex, in that physiological characters vary with respect to their stabilization, deceleration, or acceleration in the transition from aging to late life. These findings imply that a correct understanding of adulthood requires identifying and appropriately characterizing physiology during properly delimited late-life periods as well as aging periods. PMID:22233126

Dynamics of Severe and Non-Severe Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Young Children in Israel Following PCV7/PCV13 Introduction.

PubMed

Glikman, Daniel; Dagan, Ron; Barkai, Galia; Averbuch, Diana; Guri, Alex; Givon-Lavi, Noga; Ben-Shimol, Shalom

2018-05-10

The introduction of the pneumococcal conjugated vaccines (PCVs) resulted in a substantial reduction of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) rates. However, impact on non-severe IPD (mostly occult bacteremia) has not yet been fully elucidated.We assessed severe and non-severe IPD (SIPD and NSIPD, respectively) rate dynamics in children <5 years in Israel before and after PCV7/PCV13 implementation. A prospective, population-based, nationwide surveillance. All IPD episodes recorded from 1999 through 2015, were included. NSIPD was defined as IPD episodes without meningitis, pneumonia or mastoiditis in a child with a favorable outcome (not-hospitalized or hospitalized in a non-intensive care unit <5 days, without mortality). Three sub-periods were defined: pre-PCV (1999-2008), PCV7 (2010-2011) and PCV13 (2013-2015). Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated. Overall, 4,457 IPD episodes were identified; 3,398 (76.2%) SIPD, 1,022 (22.9%) NSIPD and 37 (0.8%) unknown. In 90% of NSIPD episodes, no focus was identified.In the PCV7 period, NSIPD rates significantly declined by 52%, while SIPD rates declined less prominently by 24%. Following PCV13 introduction, compared with the PCV7 period, NSIPD rates declined non-significantly by 17% while SIPD rates declined significantly further by an additional 53%. These trends resulted in overall reductions (comparing PCV13 and pre-PCV periods) of NSIPD and SIPD of 60% (IRR=0.4; 0.32-0.51) and 64% (IRR=0.36; 0.32-0.42), respectively. Following PCV7/PCV13 introduction, SIPD and NSIPD rates substantially declined, with differences in rate-dynamics, alluding to differences in serotype distribution between the two groups. Future surveillance is warranted when considering modification in treatment protocols for suspected occult bacteremia/NSIPD cases.

Decline in stroke mortality in North Carolina. Description, predictions, and a possible underlying cause.

PubMed

Howard, G

1993-09-01

Data from the National Center for Health Statistics were used to describe the decline in age-adjusted stroke mortality rates from 1962 to 1987 for North Carolina and for six regions of the state. For the state as a whole, stroke mortality decreased from 0.0050 to 0.0018 (64% decrease) for white males, 0.0039 to 0.0016 (59% decrease) for white females, 0.0072 to 0.0030 (58% decrease) for black males, and 0.0064 to 0.0025 (61% decrease) for black females. Under the hypothesis that the rate of decline in stroke mortality will slow and approach a "floor," a four-parameter logistic model was fit to the data. This model suggests that most of the decline in North Carolina stroke rates had occurred by 1987 and that the rates are now approaching the floor. For example, the estimated 1987 white male stroke mortality rate was 0.00190 and the floor 0.00176, suggesting only a 7% decline in the future. Similar percentage differences between 1987 levels and the floor were estimated for the three other race-gender groups. This analysis also suggested that while the absolute disparity by sex and race decreased between 1962 and 1987, the ratio of black to white mortality rates and the ratio of male to female mortality rates remained relatively constant. Estimates of 1-year case-fatality rates from two surveys of hospitalized stroke patients in a high-mortality five-county region of North Carolina decreased from 51% in 1970 to 38% in 1980. This decrease in stroke fatality rate is sufficient to account for 64% of the decrease in mortality estimated for this region over the same period.

Declining survival of black brant from subarctic and arctic breeding areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leach, Alan G.; Ward, David H.; Sedinger, James S.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Boyd, W. Sean; Hupp, Jerry W.; Ritchie, Robert J.

2017-01-01

Since the mid 1990s, the number of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) nests on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), Alaska, USA, the historically predominant breeding area of brant, has declined steadily. This has caused researchers and managers to question if arctic breeding populations can compensate for the reduction in brant nests on the YKD. An important component of the assessment of brant population dynamics is having current estimates of first‐year and adult survival. We banded brant at 4 locations in Arctic Alaska and western Canada, and at 1 location in the subarctic, the Tutakoke River (TR) colony on the YKD, 1990–2015. We used joint live and dead mark‐recapture models to estimate first‐year and adult (≥1 yr old) survival of brant. We also used band recovery rates from a Brownie model to assess temporal trends in band recovery rates of adult brant. First‐year survival of brant hatched at TR declined from approximately 0.60 to <0.20 and, although first‐year survival generally was higher for goslings marked in the Arctic, their survival declined from approximately 0.70 in the early 1990s to ≤0.45 in the 2010s. Annual survival of adult females decreased from an average of 0.881 (95% CI = 0.877–0.885) to 0.822 (95% CI = 0.815–0.829) at TR and from 0.851 (95% CI = 0.843–0.860) to 0.821 (95% CI = 0.805–0.836) in the Arctic, from 1990 to 2014. Band recovery rates of adults generally were <1.25% until the last several years of study, when they reached ≤3.5%. Although the current harvest rates may be partially additive to natural mortality, we do not believe that harvest is the main influence on the declines in survival. The general decline in survival rates of brant breeding across a large geographic area may be influenced by a reduction in the quality of migration and wintering ground habitats. We suggest an analysis of seasonal survival of brant to test the hypothesis that declining habitat quality on wintering or spring migration areas is reducing survival. Our results suggest that the number of breeding pairs at TR will continue to decline and also brings into question the ability of arctic breeding populations to grow at a rate necessary to offset the declines on the YKD. Researchers should continue to closely monitor survival and harvest rates of brant, and assess methods currently used to monitor their abundance.

Timescales and controls on phosphorus loss from a grassland hillslope following a cessation in P application.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassidy, Rachel; Doody, Donnacha; Watson, Catherine

2016-04-01

Despite the implementation of EU regulations controlling the use of fertilisers in agriculture, reserves of phosphorus (P) in soils continue to pose a threat to water quality. Mobilisation and transport of legacy P from soil to surface waters has been highlighted as a probable cause of many water bodies continuing to fail to achieve targets under the Water Framework Directive. However, the rates and quantities lost from farmland, and the timescales for positive change to water quality, following cessation of P inputs, remain poorly understood. Monitoring data from an instrumented grassland research site in Northern Ireland provide some insights. The site is located in a hydrologically 'flashy' landscape characterised by steep gradients and poorly drained soils over impermeable bedrock. Between 2000 and 2005 soil Olsen P concentrations were altered in five 0.2 ha hydrologically isolated grazed grassland plots through chemical fertiliser applications of 0, 10, 20, 40, 80 kg P ha-1yr-1. By 2004 this had resulted in soil Olsen P concentrations of 19, 24, 28, 38 and 67 mg P L-1 across the plots, after which applications ceased. Subsequently, until 2012, changes in soil Olsen P across the plots and losses to overland flow and drainage were monitored, with near-continuous flow measurement and water samples abstracted for chemical analysis. Runoff events were sampled at 20 minute intervals while drainage flows were taken as a weekly composite of 4-hourly samples. Overland flow events were defined by at least 24 hours without flow being recorded at the respective plot outlets. Drainage flow was examined on a weekly basis as it was continuous except during prolonged dry periods. To examine the hydrological drivers of overland flow and drainage losses the dissolved reactive P (DRP) and total P (TP) time series were synchronised with rainfall data and modelled soil moisture deficits. Results demonstrated that from 2005-2012 there was no significant difference among plots in the recorded TP and DRP time series for either overland flow or drainage flow despite the large variation in soil Olsen P. Flow-weighted mean concentrations for overland flow losses declined slightly over the period but remained in excess of the chemical Environmental Quality Standard in all plots (EQS; 0.035 mg/L). In individual events the plot receiving zero P fertiliser inputs since 2000 often lost as much, or more, P than the plot which received 80 kg ha-1 yr-1 up to 2005. Annual loads also reflect this. Drainage losses showed no decline over the period. The hydrological drivers, particularly the antecedent dry period and soil moisture, were observed to have a greater influence on P loss from the plots than soil P status. Given that Olsen P often forms the basis of nutrient management advice this raises questions on the environmental sustainability of current nutrient advice for some soil types under similar geoclimatic conditions.

Timescales of AMOC decline in response to fresh water forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Laura C.; Wood, Richard A.

2017-12-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is predicted to weaken over the coming century due to warming from greenhouse gases and increased input of fresh water into the North Atlantic, however there is considerable uncertainty as to the amount and rate of AMOC weakening. Understanding what controls the rate and timescale of AMOC weakening may help to reduce this uncertainty and hence reduce the uncertainty surrounding associated impacts. As a first step towards this we consider the timescales associated with weakening in response to idealized freshening scenarios. Here we explore timescales of AMOC weakening in response to a freshening of the North Atlantic in a suite of experiments with an eddy-permitting global climate model (GCM). When the rate of fresh water added to the North Atlantic is small (0.1 Sv; 1 Sv =1× 10^6 m^3 /s), the timescale of AMOC weakening depends mainly on the rate of fresh water input itself and can be longer than a century. When the rate of fresh water added is large (≥ 0.3 Sv) however, the timescale is a few decades and is insensitive to the actual rate of fresh water input. This insensitivity is because with a greater rate of fresh water input the advective feedbacks become more important at exporting fresh anomalies, so the rate of freshening is similar. We find advective feedbacks from: an export of fresh anomalies by the mean flow; less volume import through the Bering Strait; a weakening AMOC transporting less subtropical water northwards; and anomalous subtropical circulations which amplify export of the fresh anomalies. This latter circulation change is driven itself by the presence of fresh anomalies exported from the subpolar gyre through geostrophy. This feedback has not been identified in previous model studies and when the rate of freshening is strong it is found to dominate the total export of fresh anomalies, and hence the timescale of AMOC decline. Although results may be model dependent, qualitatively similar mechanisms are also found in a single experiment with a different GCM.

Declining populations of the fingernail clam Musculium transversum in the upper Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, D.M.; Naimo, T.J.; Weiner, J.G.; Anderson, R.V.; Sandheinrich, M.B.; Sparks, Richard E.

1995-01-01

We examined recent temporal trends in the abundance of fingernail clams Musculium transversum (formerly Sphaerium transversum) in the upper Mississippi River. Historical data on densities of fingernail clams were obtained from regional scientists and published literature. We also sampled benthos in six navigation pools in summer 1991, finding very few fingernail clams. The combined data set, including historical data and sampling results, extended from 1973 to 1992 and was sufficient to statistically evaluate trends in densities of fingernail clams in eight pools. Populations of fingernail clams declined significantly in five of the eight pools examined (Pools 2, 5, 7, 9, and 19), which spanned a 700-km reach of river from St. Paul, Minnesota, to Keokuk, Iowa. Densities in Pool 19, which had the longest historical record on fingernail clam abundance, averaged 30 000 m super(-2) in 1985 and progressively declined to zero in 1990. Combined data from all eight pools showed a significant decline in abundance of fingernail clams. An evaluation of potential causal factors led us to hypothesize that the population declines in Pools 2 to 9 were linked to point-source pollution rather than to dredging activity or commercial navigation traffic. In Pool 19, the declines of fingernail clams may have resulted from low-flow conditions during drought periods, but the causal mechanisms by which low flow influences fingernail clam abundance are unclear. The decrease in fingernail clam populations may adversely affect certain fish and wildlife, such as migrating lesser scaup Aythya affinis, which feed heavily on the small mollusk. Moreover, the decreases in populations of this pollution-sensitive mollusk may signal a large-scale deterioration in the health of this riverine ecosystem.

Connecting ground water influxes with fish species diversity in an urbanized watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steffy, L.Y.; McGinty, A.L.; Welty, C.; Kilham, S.S.

2004-01-01

Valley Creek watershed is a small stream system that feeds the Schuylkill River near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The watershed is highly urbanized, including over 17 percent impervious surface cover (ISC) by area. Imperviousness in a watershed has been linked to fish community structure and integrity. Generally, above 10 to 12 percent ISC there is marked decline in fish assemblages with fish being absent above 25 percent ISC. This study quantifies the importance of ground water in maintaining fish species diversity in subbasins with over 30 percent ISC. Valley Creek contains an atypical fish assemblage in that the majority of the fish are warm-water species, and the stream supports naturally reproducing brown trout, which were introduced and stocked from the early 1900s to 1985. Fish communities were quantified at 13 stations throughout the watershed, and Simpson's species diversity index was calculated. One hundred and nine springs were located, and their flow rates measured. A cross covariance analysis between Simpson's species diversity index and spring flow rates upstream of fish stations was performed to quantify the spatial correlation between these two variables. The correlation was found to be highest at lag distances up to about 400 m and drop off significantly beyond lag distances of about 800 m.

Exploratory drilling and aquifer testing at the Kipahulu District, Haleakala National Park, Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Souza, W.R.

1983-01-01

An exploratory well, located at 388 feet above sea level in Kipahulu Valley on Maui, Hawaii, was completed and tested in October 1980. The 410-foot well penetrates a series of very dense basaltic lava flows of the Hana Formation. At an elevation of 10 feet above mean sea level, the well penetrated a water-bearing zone of permeable basaltic rock. Water from this zone had a head of about 76 feet above sea level. In October of 1980, the well was pump tested for 9 hours at various discharge rates up to 350 gallons per minute with a maximum drawdown of about 12 feet. Based on the test data, the well should produce water at a rate of 200 gallons per minute with a drawdown of less than 3 feet. The water level in the well was continuously monitored from October 1980 to mid-November 1981, during which period a maximum decline of 20 feet was recorded. Water level fluctuations in the well can be correlated to the flow in nearby Palikea Stream. The long-term water level in the well should stabilize at about 75 feet above sea level. Water quality was excellent. The total dissolved-solids content was 49 milligrams per liter and the chloride content was 4.2 milligrams per liter. (USGS)

The effect of illicit financial flows on time to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal in Sub-Saharan Africa: a quantitative analysis

PubMed Central

Makuta, Innocent; Bar-Zeev, Naor; Chiwaula, Levison; Cobham, Alex

2014-01-01

Objectives This paper sets out to estimate the cost of illicit financial flows (IFF) in terms of the amount of time it could take to reach the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG) in 34 African countries. Design We have calculated the percentage increase in gross domestic product (GDP) if IFFs were curtailed using IFF/GDP ratios. We applied the income (GDP) elasticity of child mortality to the increase in GDP to estimate the reduction in time to reach the fourth MDG in 34 African countries. Participants children aged under five years. Settings 34 countries in SSA. Main outcome measures Reduction in time to reach the first indicator of the fourth MDG, under-five mortality rate in the absence of IFF. Results We found that in the 34 SSA countries, six countries will achieve their fourth MDG target at the current rates of decline. In the absence of IFF, 16 countries would reach their fourth MDG target by 2015 and there would be large reductions for all other countries. Conclusions This drain on development is facilitated by financial secrecy in other jurisdictions. Rich and poor countries alike must stem the haemorrhage of IFF by taking decisive steps towards improving financial transparency. PMID:24334911

CD4 decline is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death in virally suppressed patients with HIV.

PubMed

Helleberg, Marie; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S; Pedersen, Gitte; Pedersen, Court; Obel, Niels; Gerstoft, Jan

2013-07-01

The clinical implications of a considerable CD4 decline despite antiretroviral treatment and viral suppression are unknown. We aimed to test the hypothesis that a major CD4 decline could be a marker of cardiovascular disease or undiagnosed cancer. Patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) were followed in the Danish nationwide, population-based cohort study in the period 1995-2010 with quarterly CD4 measurements. Associations between a CD4 decline of ≥30% and cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death were analyzed using Poisson regression with date of CD4 decline as a time-updated variable. We followed 2584 virally suppressed HIV patients for 13 369 person-years (PY; median observation time, 4.7 years). Fifty-six patients developed CD4 decline (incidence rate, 4.2/1000 PY [95% confidence interval {CI}, 3.2-5.4]). CD4 counts dropped from a median of 492 cells/µL to 240 cells/µL. CD8, CD3, and total lymphocyte counts dropped concomitantly. No HIV-related factors, apart from treatment with didanosine, were associated with CD4 decline. The risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death increased markedly ≤6 months after CD4 decline (incidence rate ratio, 11.7 [95% CI, 3.6-37.4] and 13.7 [95% CI, 4.3-43.6], respectively, and mortality rate ratio 4.3 [95% CI, 1.1-17.6]). A major decline in CD4 count is associated with a marked increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and death among virally suppressed HIV patients.

Basal area growth of sugar maple in relation to acid deposition, stand health, and soil nutrients.

PubMed

Duchesne, Louis; Ouimet, Rock; Houle, Daniel

2002-01-01

Previous studies have shown in noncalcareous soils that acid deposition may have increased soil leaching of basic cations above the input rate from soil weathering and atmospheric depositions. This phenomenon may have increased soil acidity levels, and, as a consequence, may have reduced the availability of these essential nutrients for forest growth. Fourteen plots of the Forest Ecosystem Research and Monitoring Network in Québec were used to examine the relation between post-industrial growth trends of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and acid deposition (N and S), stand decline rate, and soil exchangeable nutrient concentrations. Atmospheric N and S deposition and soil exchangeable acidity were positively associated with stand decline rate, and negatively with the average tree basal area increment trend. The growth rate reduction reached on average 17% in declining stands compared with healthy ones. The results showed a significant sugar maple growth rate reduction since 1960 on acid soils. The appearance of the forest decline phenomenon in Québec can be attributed, at least partially, to soil acidification and acid deposition levels.

Last call: Passive acoustic monitoring shows continued rapid decline of critically endangered vaquita.

PubMed

Thomas, Len; Jaramillo-Legorreta, Armando; Cardenas-Hinojosa, Gustavo; Nieto-Garcia, Edwyna; Rojas-Bracho, Lorenzo; Ver Hoef, Jay M; Moore, Jeffrey; Taylor, Barbara; Barlow, Jay; Tregenza, Nicholas

2017-11-01

The vaquita is a critically endangered species of porpoise. It produces echolocation clicks, making it a good candidate for passive acoustic monitoring. A systematic grid of sensors has been deployed for 3 months annually since 2011; results from 2016 are reported here. Statistical models (to compensate for non-uniform data loss) show an overall decline in the acoustic detection rate between 2015 and 2016 of 49% (95% credible interval 82% decline to 8% increase), and total decline between 2011 and 2016 of over 90%. Assuming the acoustic detection rate is proportional to population size, approximately 30 vaquita (95% credible interval 8-96) remained in November 2016.

Development of ground water in the Houston District, Texas, 1970-74

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gabrysch, R.K.

1977-01-01

Total withdrawals of ground water in the Houston district, Texas , increased 9 percent from about 488 million gallons per day in 1970 to about 532 million gallons per day in 1974. The average annual rate of increase from 1960 to 1969 was about 6.3 percent. During 1970-74, increases in pumpage occurred in the Houston, Katy, and NASA areas; decreases occurred in the Pasadena and Alta Loma areas; and the pumpage in the Baytown-La Porte and Texas City areas remained almost constant. Water levels continued to decline throughout the district during 1970-74, but the rate of decline generally was not as great as in previous years. The greatest declines in the past several years were in the Houston area, but the center of decline is still in the Pasadena and Baytown-La Porte areas. The decrease in the rate of decline suggests that the aquifers in the Houston district could support the amount of pumping during 1970-74 with little, if any , further decline. Although saltwater encroachment has probably occurred in the district, particularly in Galveston County, no large increases in chloride were measured at the monitoring points. (Woodard-USGS)

Declining mortality from smoking in the United States.

PubMed

Rodu, Brad; Cole, Philip

2007-07-01

The proportion of Americans who smoke cigarettes has declined 50% since 1965. The effect on mortality of this considerable reduction has received little attention and is described in this study. U.S. national data were used to enumerate current, former, and never-smokers aged 35 years or older in 1987 and 2002. Mortality rate ratios were used to estimate smoking-attributable deaths among these groups, and corresponding age-adjusted smoking-attributable mortality rates (SAMRs) were calculated. There were 402,000 deaths attributable to smoking in 1987 and 322,000 in 2002. The SAMR for men aged 35 years or more was 556 deaths per 100,000 person-years in 1987, accounting for 24% of all male deaths. By 2002 the SAMR declined 41% to 329 and accounted for only 17% of deaths. The SAMR for women in 1987 was 175, accounting for 12% of deaths. By 2002 the SAMR among women had declined 30% to 122, representing 9% of deaths. The U.S. mortality rate attributable to smoking declined about 35% between 1987 and 2002. The impact of smoking on American society will diminish even further in the foreseeable future as smoking prevalence continues its decline among men and women.

Changes in Echocardiographic Parameters According to the Rate of Residual Renal Function Decline in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Koo, Hyang Mo; Doh, Fa Mee; Kim, Chan Ho; Lee, Mi Jung; Kim, Eun Jin; Han, Jae Hyun; Han, Ji Suk; Ryu, Dong-Ryeol; Oh, Hyung Jung; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung Hyeok; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Kang, Shin-Wook

2015-01-01

Abstract Residual renal function (RRF) is associated with left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy as well as all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease. However, no studies have yet examined the serial changes in echocardiographic findings according to the rate of RRF decline in incident dialysis patients. A total of 81 patients who started peritoneal dialysis (PD) between 2005 and 2012 at Yonsei University Health System, Seoul, South Korea, and who underwent baseline and follow-up echocardiography within the first year of PD were recruited. Patients were dichotomized into “faster” and “slower” RRF decline groups according to the median values of RRF decline slope (−1.60 mL/min/y/1.73 m2). Baseline RRF and echocardiographic parameters were comparable between the 2 groups. During the first year of PD, there were no significant changes in LV end-diastolic volume index (LVEDVI), left atrial volume index (LAVI), or LV mass index (LVMI) in the “faster” RRT decline group, while these indices decreased in the “slower” RRT decline group. The rate of RRF decline was a significant determinant of 1-year changes in LVEDVI, LAVI, and LVMI. The linear mixed model further confirmed that there were significant differences in the changes in LVEDVI, LAVI, and LVMI between the 2 groups (P = 0.047, 0.048, and 0.001, respectively). During a mean follow-up duration of 31.9 months, 4 (4.9%) patients died. Compared with the “slower” RRF decline group, CV composite (20.29/100 vs 7.18/100 patient-years [PY], P = 0.098), technique failure (18.80/100 vs 4.19/100 PY, P = 0.006), and PD peritonitis (15.73/100 vs 4.95/100 PY, P = 0.064) developed more frequently in patients with “faster” RRF decline rate. On multivariate Cox regression analysis, patients with “faster” RRF decline rate showed 4.82-, 4.44-, and 7.37-fold higher risks, respectively, for each clinical outcome. Preservation of RRF is important for conserving cardiac performance, resulting in an improvement in clinical outcomes of incident PD patients. PMID:25700308

Recalibration of a ground-water flow model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer of northeastern Arkansas, 1918-1998, with simulations of water levels caused by projected ground-water withdrawals through 2049

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Thomas B.

2003-01-01

A digital model of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in eastern Arkansas was used to simulate ground-water flow for the period from 1918 to 2049. The model results were used to evaluate effects on water levels caused by demand for ground water from the alluvial aquifer, which has increased steadily for the last 40 years. The model results showed that water currently (1998) is being withdrawn from the aquifer at rates greater than what can be sustained for the long term. The saturated thickness of the alluvial aquifer has been reduced in some areas resulting in dry wells, degraded water quality, decreased water availability, increased pumping costs, and lower well yields. The model simulated the aquifer from a line just north of the Arkansas-Missouri border to south of the Arkansas River and on the east from the Mississippi River westward to the less permeable geologic units of Paleozoic age. The model consists of 2 layers, a grid of 184 rows by 156 columns, and comprises 14,118 active cells each measuring 1 mile on a side. It simulates time periods from 1918 to 1998 along with further time periods to 2049 testing different pumping scenarios. Model flux boundary conditions were specified for rivers, general head boundaries along parts of the western side of the model and parts of Crowleys Ridge, and a specified head boundary across the aquifer further north in Missouri. Model calibration was conducted for observed water levels for the years 1972, 1982, 1992, and 1998. The average absolute residual was 4.69 feet and the root-mean square error was 6.04 feet for the hydraulic head observations for 1998. Hydraulic-conductivity values obtained during the calibration process were 230 feet per day for the upper layer and ranged from 230 to 730 feet per day for the lower layer with the maximum mean for the combined aquifer of 480 feet per day. Specific yield values were 0.30 throughout the model and specific storage values were 0.000001 inverse-feet throughout the model. Areally specified recharge rates ranged from 0 to about 30 inches and total recharge increased from 1972 to 1998 by a factor of about four. Water levels caused by projected ground-water withdrawals were simulated using the calibrated model. Simulations represented a period of 50 years into the future in three scenarios with either unchanged pumpage, pumpage increased by historic trends, or pumpage increased by historic trends except in two areas of the Grand Prairie. If pumping remains at 1997 rates, this produces extreme water-level declines (areas where model cells have gone dry or where the water level in the aquifer is equal to or less than the original saturated thickness, assuming confined conditions in the aquifer everywhere in the formation in predevelopment times) in the aquifer in two areas of the aquifer (one in the Grand Prairie area between the Arkansas and White Rivers and the other west of Crowleys Ridge along the Cache River) with about 400 square miles going dry. Increasing the pumping rates to that which would be projected using historic data led to increased extreme water-level declines in both areas with about 1,300 square miles going dry. Declines in both scenarios generally occurred most rapidly between 2009 and 2019. Reducing the pumping rates to 90 percent of that used for projected historic rates in areas between the Arkansas and White Rivers relating to two diversion projects of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and other agencies did little to decrease the extreme water-level declines. However, these pumpage reductions are small (amounting to about 16 percent of the reductions that could result from implementation of these diversion projects).

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

PubMed

Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

2017-01-20

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications

PubMed Central

Mensah, George A.; Wei, Gina S.; Sorlie, Paul D.; Fine, Lawrence J.; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G.; Mussolino, Michael E.; Hsu, Lucy L.; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M.; Gordon, David

2016-01-01

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke has been the success story of the century’s last 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in CHD and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the U.S. population aged. However, in 1978 the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) concluded that a significant recent downtick in CHD and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the U.S. Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from CHD and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one-third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The NHLBI, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference in order to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. PMID:28104770

Great expectations: Flow restoration and sediment transport in the Waimea River, Kaua'i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez, Basil

2018-04-01

Conventional and novel observations made in the Waimea River basin between 1960 and 1995 permit the total riverine mass flux to be estimated and the influence that flow restoration will have on sediment dynamics in the river's lower reaches to be assessed. Flows between the threshold for sediment transport ( 6.0 m3 s-1) and the most effective flow (80.7 m3 s-1) recur annually and transport 60% of the Waimea River's suspended sediment load. Discharges of this magnitude essentially were unaffected by plantation era agricultural diversions of 2.3 ± 0.7 m3 s-1. The modern-day mass flux from the Waimea River basin is 155 ± 38 t km-2 y-1, and comparison with an independent cosmogenic nuclide-based estimate implies that it has remained at about this level for the past 10 ky. Previous work indicated that: (i) most of the sand the Waimea River transports to the coast is derived from steep, rapidly eroding, sparsely vegetated, bedrock-dominated hillslopes; and (ii) the sediment transport regime of the Waimea River is supply-limited at very high discharges (recurrence interval > 2.5 years). Consequently, major floods tend to remove sand from the estuary. Climate change has caused a statewide decline in heavy rainfall, and a commensurate decline in the magnitude of peak flows in the basin's pristine, undiverted headwaters over the past 97 years. The effect this secular change in climate presently is having on streamflow was foreshadowed in the late 1970s by a naturally occurring, warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase reduction in the magnitude of flows with low exceedance probabilities. Additionally, the controlling base level at the river mouth has risen and been displaced seaward. Simple proportionality approximations show that, for a constant sediment supply, aggradation will occur if either the magnitude of flows with a low exceedance probability declines and/or base level rises. Thus, anthropogenic stresses on Waimea River's lower reaches are not derived from the within-basin influence agricultural diversions exert on the flow regime and will not be resolved by restoring flow to the river. These stresses primarily accrue from extrinsic factors that will continue to influence the river's hydrologic and sediment transport regimes until global, offsetting, climate-ameliorating measures are implemented.

2006 Washington State collision data summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-06-11

Between 1980 and 2006, the U.S. fatality rate has declined by 58% (from 3.35 to 1.42 fatalities per 100 million VMT). By comparison, during the same period, Washington states overall fatality rate has declined by 67% (from 3.43 to 1.12 fatalities ...

Diversification rates have declined in the Malagasy herpetofauna.

PubMed

Scantlebury, Daniel P

2013-09-07

The evolutionary origins of Madagascar's biodiversity remain mysterious despite the fact that relative to land area, there is no other place with consistently high levels of species richness and endemism across a range of taxonomic levels. Most efforts to explain diversification on the island have focused on geographical models of speciation, but recent studies have begun to address the island's accumulation of species through time, although with conflicting results. Prevailing hypotheses for diversification on the island involve either constant diversification rates or scenarios where rates decline through time. Using relative-time-calibrated phylogenies for seven endemic vertebrate clades and a model-fitting framework, I find evidence that diversification rates have declined through time on Madagascar. I show that diversification rates have clearly declined throughout the history of each clade, and models invoking diversity-dependent reductions to diversification rates best explain the diversification histories for each clade. These results are consistent with the ecological theory of adaptive radiation, and, coupled with ancillary observations about ecomorphological and life-history evolution, strongly suggest that adaptive radiation was an important formative process for one of the most species-rich regions on the Earth. These results cast the Malagasy biota in a new light and provide macroevolutionary justification for conservation initiatives.

A hybrid of monopoly and perfect competition model for hi-tech products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, P. C.; Wee, H. M.; Pai, S.; Yang, H. J.; Wee, P. K. P.

2010-11-01

For Hi-tech products, the demand rate, the component cost as well as the selling price usually decline significantly with time. In the case of perfect competition, shortages usually result in lost sales; while in a monopoly, shortages will be completely backordered. However, neither perfect competition nor monopoly exists. Therefore, there is a need to develop a replenishment model considering a hybrid of perfect competition and monopoly when the cost, price and demand are decreasing simultaneously. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis are carried out to illustrate this model. The results show that a higher decline-rate in the component cost leads to a smaller service level and a larger replenishment interval. When the component cost decline rate increases and the selling price decline rate decreases simultaneously, the replenishment interval decreases. In perfect competition it is better to have a high service level, while for the case with monopoly, keeping a low service level is better due to complete backordering.

Incorporating benthic community changes into hydrochemical-based projections of coral reef calcium carbonate production under ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Emily C.; Hamylton, Sarah M.; Phinn, Stuart R.

2016-06-01

The existence of coral reefs is dependent on the production and maintenance of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) framework that is produced through calcification. The net production of CaCO3 will likely decline in the future, from both declining net calcification rates (decreasing calcification and increasing dissolution) and shifts in benthic community composition from calcifying organisms to non-calcifying organisms. Here, we present a framework for hydrochemical studies that allows both declining net calcification rates and changes in benthic community composition to be incorporated into projections of coral reef CaCO3 production. The framework involves upscaling net calcification rates for each benthic community type using mapped proportional cover of the benthic communities. This upscaling process was applied to the reef flats at One Tree and Lady Elliot reefs (Great Barrier Reef) and Shiraho Reef (Okinawa), and compared to existing data. Future CaCO3 budgets were projected for Lady Elliot Reef, predicting a decline of 53 % from the present value by end-century (800 ppm CO2) without any changes to benthic community composition. A further 5.7 % decline in net CaCO3 production is expected for each 10 % decline in calcifier cover, and net dissolution is predicted by end-century if calcifier cover drops below 18 % of the present extent. These results show the combined negative effect of both declining net calcification rates and changing benthic community composition on reefs and the importance of considering both processes for determining future reef CaCO3 production.

Education and trajectories of cognitive decline over 9 years in very old people: methods and risk analysis.

PubMed

Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Matthews, Fiona; Dening, Tom; Huppert, Felicia A; Brayne, Carol

2009-05-01

the investigation of cognitive decline in the older population has been hampered by analytical considerations. Most studies of older people over prolonged periods suffer from loss to follow-up, yet this has seldom been investigated fully to date. Such considerations limit our understanding of how basic variables such as education can affect cognitive trajectories. we examined cognitive trajectories in a population-based cohort study in Cambridge, UK, of people aged 75 and over in whom multiple interviews were conducted over time. Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Socio-demographic variables were measured, including educational level and social class. An age-based quadratic latent growth model was fitted to cognitive scores. The effect of socio-demographic variables was examined on all latent variables and the probability of death and dropout. at baseline, age, education, social class and mobility were associated with cognitive performance. Education and social class were not related to decline or its rate of change. In contrast, poor mobility was associated with lower cognitive performance, increased cognitive decline and increased rate of change of cognitive decline. Gender, age, mobility and cognitive ability predicted death and dropout contrary to much of the current literature, education was not related to rate of cognitive decline or change in this rate as measured by MMSE. Higher levels of education do not appear to protect against cognitive decline, though if the MMSE is used in the diagnostic process, individuals with less education may be diagnosed as having dementia somewhat earlier.

Long-term flow-through column experiments and their relevance to natural granitoid weathering rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, Arthur F.; Schulz, Marjorie S.; Lawrence, Corey R.; Vivit, Davison V.; Stonestrom, David A.

2017-01-01

Four pairs of fresh and partly-weathered granitoids, obtained from well-characterized watersheds—Merced River, CA, USA; Panola, GA, USA; Loch Vale, CO, USA, and Rio Icacos, Puerto Rico—were reacted in columns under ambient laboratory conditions for 13.8 yrs, the longest running experimental weathering study to date. Low total column mass losses (<1 wt. %), correlated with the absence of pitting or surface roughening of primary silicate grains. BET surface area (SBET) increased, primarily due to Fe-oxyhydroxide precipitation. Surface areas returned to within factors of 2 to 3 of their original values after dithionite extraction. Miscible displacement experiments indicated homogeneous plug flow with negligible immobile water, commonly cited for column experiments. Fresh granitoid effluent solute concentrations initially declined rapidly, followed by much slower decreases over the next decade. Weathered granitoid effluent concentrations increased modestly over the same time period, indicating losses of natural Fe-oxide and/or clay coatings and the increased exposure of primary mineral surfaces. Corresponding (fresh and weathered) elemental effluent concentrations trended toward convergence during the last decade of reaction. NETPATH/PHREEQC code simulations indicated non-stoichiometric dissolution involving Ca release from disseminated calcite and excess K release from interlayer biotite. Effluent 87Sr/85Sr ratios reflected a progressive weathering sequence beginning and ending with 87Sr/85Sr values of plagioclase with an additional calcite input and a radiogenic biotite excursion proportional to the granitoid ages.Effluents became thermodynamically saturated with goethite and gibbsite, slightly under-saturated with kaolinite and strongly under-saturated with plagioclase, consistent with kinetically-limited weathering in which solutes such as Na varied with column flow rates. Effluent Na concentrations showed no clear trend with time during the last decade of reaction (fresh granitoids) or increased slowly with time (weathered granitoids). Analysis of cumulative Na release indicated that plagioclase dissolution achieved steady state in 3 of the 4 fresh granitoids during the last decade of reaction. Surface-area normalized plagioclase dissolution rates exhibited a narrow range (0.95 to 1.26 10-13 moles m-2 s-1), in spite of significant stoichiometric differences (An0.21 to An0.50). Rates were an order of magnitude slower than previously reported in shorter duration experiments but generally 2 to 3 orders of magnitude faster than corresponding natural analogs. CrunchFlow simulations indicated that more than a hundredfold decrease in column flow rates would be required to produce near-saturation reaction affinities that would start to slow plagioclase weathering to real-world levels. Extending simulations to approximate long term weathering in naturally weathered profiles required additional decreases in the intrinsic plagioclase dissolution and kaolinite precipitation rates and relatively large decreases in the fluid flow rate, implying that exposure to reactive mineral surfaces is significantly limited in the natural environment compared to column experiments.

Long-term flow-through column experiments and their relevance to natural granitoid weathering rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Art F.; Schulz, Marjorie S.; Lawrence, Corey R.; Vivit, Davison V.; Stonestrom, David A.

2017-04-01

Four pairs of fresh and partly-weathered granitoids, obtained from well-characterized watersheds-Merced River, CA, USA; Panola, GA, USA; Loch Vale, CO, USA, and Rio Icacos, Puerto Rico-were reacted in columns under ambient laboratory conditions for 13.8 yrs, the longest running experimental weathering study to date. Low total column mass losses (<1 wt.%), correlated with the absence of pitting or surface roughening of primary silicate grains. BET surface area (SBET) increased, primarily due to Fe-oxyhydroxide precipitation. Surface areas returned to within factors of 2-3 of their original values after dithionite extraction. Miscible displacement experiments indicated homogeneous plug flow with negligible immobile water, commonly cited for column experiments. Fresh granitoid effluent solute concentrations initially declined rapidly, followed by much slower decreases over the next decade. Weathered granitoid effluent concentrations increased modestly over the same time period, indicating losses of natural Fe-oxide and/or clay coatings and the increased exposure of primary mineral surfaces. Corresponding (fresh and weathered) elemental effluent concentrations trended toward convergence during the last decade of reaction. NETPATH/PHREEQC code simulations indicated non-stoichiometric dissolution involving Ca release from disseminated calcite and excess K release from interlayer biotite. Effluent 87Sr/85Sr ratios reflected a progressive weathering sequence beginning and ending with 87Sr/85Sr values of plagioclase with an additional calcite input and a radiogenic biotite excursion proportional to the granitoid ages. Effluents became thermodynamically saturated with goethite and gibbsite, slightly under-saturated with kaolinite and strongly under-saturated with plagioclase, consistent with kinetically-limited weathering in which solutes such as Na varied with column flow rates. Effluent Na concentrations showed no clear trend with time during the last decade of reaction (fresh granitoids) or increased slowly with time (weathered granitoids). Analysis of cumulative Na release indicated that plagioclase dissolution achieved steady state in 3 of the 4 fresh granitoids during the last decade of reaction. Surface-area normalized plagioclase dissolution rates exhibited a narrow range (0.95-1.26 10-13 moles m-2 s-1), in spite of significant stoichiometric differences (An0.21 to An0.50). Rates were an order of magnitude slower than previously reported in shorter duration experiments but generally 2-3 orders of magnitude faster than corresponding natural analogs. CrunchFlow simulations indicated that more than a hundredfold decrease in column flow rates would be required to produce near-saturation reaction affinities that would start to slow plagioclase weathering to real-world levels. Extending simulations to approximate long term weathering in naturally weathered profiles required additional decreases in the intrinsic plagioclase dissolution and kaolinite precipitation rates and relatively large decreases in the fluid flow rate, implying that exposure to reactive mineral surfaces is significantly limited in the natural environment compared to column experiments.

Effects of Maternal Age and Age-Specific Preterm Birth Rates on Overall Preterm Birth Rates - United States, 2007 and 2014.

PubMed

Ferré, Cynthia; Callaghan, William; Olson, Christine; Sharma, Andrea; Barfield, Wanda

2016-11-04

Reductions in births to teens and preterm birth rates are two recent public health successes in the United States (1,2). From 2007 to 2014, the birth rate for females aged 15-19 years declined 42%, from 41.5 to 24.2 per 1,000 females. The preterm birth rate decreased 8.4%, from 10.41% to 9.54% of live births (1). Rates of preterm births vary by maternal age, being higher among the youngest and oldest mothers. It is unknown how changes in the maternal age distribution in the United States have affected preterm birth rates. CDC used birth data to assess the relative contributions of changes in the maternal age distribution and in age-specific preterm birth rates to the overall decrease in preterm birth rates. The preterm birth rate declined in all age groups. The effects of age distribution changes on the preterm birth rate decrease were different in younger and older mothers. The decrease in the proportion of births to mothers aged ≤19 and 20-24 years and reductions in age-specific preterm rates in all age groups contributed to the overall decline in the preterm birth rate. The increase in births to mothers aged ≥30 years had no effect on the overall preterm birth rate decrease. The decline in preterm births from 2007 to 2014 is related, in part, to teen pregnancy prevention and the changing maternal age distribution. Effective public health strategies for further reducing preterm birth rates need to be tailored to different age groups.

Effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug treatments on cognitive decline vary by phase of pre-clinical Alzheimer disease: findings from the randomized controlled Alzheimer's Disease Anti-inflammatory Prevention Trial.

PubMed

Leoutsakos, Jeannie-Marie S; Muthen, Bengt O; Breitner, John C S; Lyketsos, Constantine G

2012-04-01

We examined the effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs on cognitive decline as a function of phase of pre-clinical Alzheimer disease. Given recent findings that cognitive decline accelerates as clinical diagnosis is approached, we used rate of decline as a proxy for phase of pre-clinical Alzheimer disease. We fit growth mixture models of Modified Mini-Mental State (3MS) Examination trajectories with data from 2388 participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Anti-inflammatory Prevention Trial and included class-specific effects of naproxen and celecoxib. We identified three classes: "no decline", "slow decline", and "fast decline", and examined the effects of celecoxib and naproxen on linear slope and rate of change by class. Inclusion of quadratic terms improved fit of the model (-2 log likelihood difference: 369.23; p < 0.001) but resulted in reversal of effects over time. Over 4 years, participants in the slow-decline class on placebo typically lost 6.6 3MS points, whereas those on naproxen lost 3.1 points (p-value for difference: 0.19). Participants in the fast-decline class on placebo typically lost 11.2 points, but those on celecoxib first declined and then gained points (p-value for difference from placebo: 0.04), whereas those on naproxen showed a typical decline of 24.9 points (p-value for difference from placebo: <0.0001). Our results appeared statistically robust but provided some unexpected contrasts in effects of different treatments at different times. Naproxen may attenuate cognitive decline in slow decliners while accelerating decline in fast decliners. Celecoxib appeared to have similar effects at first but then attenuated change in fast decliners. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Catechin treatment improves cerebrovascular flow-mediated dilation and learning abilities in atherosclerotic mice

PubMed Central

Drouin, Annick; Bolduc, Virginie; Thorin-Trescases, Nathalie; Bélanger, Élisabeth; Fernandes, Priscilla; Baraghis, Edward; Lesage, Frédéric; Gillis, Marc-Antoine; Villeneuve, Louis; Hamel, Edith; Ferland, Guylaine; Thorin, Eric

2013-01-01

Severe dyslipidemia and the associated oxidative stress could accelerate the age-related decline in cerebrovascular endothelial function and cerebral blood flow (CBF), leading to neuronal loss and impaired learning abilities. We hypothesized that a chronic treatment with the polyphenol catechin would prevent endothelial dysfunction, maintain CBF responses, and protect learning abilities in atherosclerotic (ATX) mice. We treated ATX (C57Bl/6-LDLR−/− hApoB+/+; 3 mo old) mice with catechin (30 mg·kg−1·day−1) for 3 mo, and C57Bl/6 [wild type (WT), 3 and 6 mo old] mice were used as controls. ACh- and flow-mediated dilations (FMD) were recorded in pressurized cerebral arteries. Basal CBF and increases in CBF induced by whisker stimulation were measured by optical coherence tomography and Doppler, respectively. Learning capacities were evaluated with the Morris water maze test. Compared with 6-mo-old WT mice, cerebral arteries from 6-mo-old ATX mice displayed a higher myogenic tone, lower responses to ACh and FMD, and were insensitive to NOS inhibition (P < 0.05), suggesting endothelial dysfunction. Basal and increases in CBF were lower in 6-mo-old ATX than WT mice (P < 0.05). A decline in the learning capabilities was also observed in ATX mice (P < 0.05). Catechin 1) reduced cerebral superoxide staining (P < 0.05) in ATX mice, 2) restored endothelial function by reducing myogenic tone, improving ACh- and FMD and restoring the sensitivity to nitric oxide synthase inhibition (P < 0.05), 3) increased the changes in CBF during stimulation but not basal CBF, and 4) prevented the decline in learning abilities (P < 0.05). In conclusion, catechin treatment of ATX mice prevents cerebrovascular dysfunctions and the associated decline in learning capacities. PMID:21186270

Arterial stiffness and decline of renal function in a primary care population.

PubMed

van Varik, Bernard J; Vossen, Liv M; Rennenberg, Roger J; Stoffers, Henri E; Kessels, Alfons G; de Leeuw, Peter W; Kroon, Abraham A

2017-01-01

Arterial stiffness is an important pathophysiological factor linking cardiovascular disease and kidney disease. Controversy exists as to whether arterial stiffness causes renal function decline, or kidney dysfunction leads to stiffening or whether the association is mutual. We aimed to investigate the longitudinal association between arterial stiffness and annual rate of renal function decline. We prospectively investigated in a primary care population whether carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) was associated with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and annual decline in eGFR in participants aged ⩾40 years without overt kidney disease. Baseline data on PWV and eGFR were available for 587 participants; follow-up measurements with a mean duration of 5.6 years were available for 222 patients. PWV, female gender and mean arterial pressure were independently associated with eGFR at baseline, although age confounded this association. More importantly, baseline PWV, age and eGFR were independent predictors of renal function decline. Stratification for age showed that the effect of PWV on rate of eGFR decline was amplified with advancing age. On the other hand, baseline eGFR did not determine annual change in PWV, suggesting a unidirectional association between arterial stiffness and eGFR. Arterial stiffness amplifies age-related renal function decline, suggesting that arterial stiffness plays a causal role in the development of renal damage, at least at later stages of age-related renal function decline, possibly through impaired renal autoregulation and increased arterial blood pressure pulsatility.

The effect of vitamin E and aspirin on the uterine artery blood flow in women with recurrent abortion: A single-blind randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Mesdaghinia, Elaheh; Mohammad-Ebrahimi, Behnaz; Foroozanfard, Fatemeh; Banafshe, Hamid Reza

2017-10-01

Recurrent spontaneous abortion has high incidence rate. The etiology is unknown in 30-40%. However high uterine artery resistance is accounted as one of the recurrent abortion reasons. The objective of the current study was to determine the impacts of vitamin E and aspirin on the uterine artery blood flow in women having recurrent abortions due to impaired uterine blood flow. This randomized clinical trial was conducted on 99 women having uterine pulsatility index (PI) more than 2.5 and the history of more than two times abortions. The candidates were categorized into three groups; receiving aspirin, only vitamin E, and aspirin+vitamin E. After 2 months, uterine PIs were compared with each other. All drug regimens caused an enhancement in uterine perfusion with a significant decline in uterine artery PI value. The women receiving vitamin E in accompanied with aspirin had the least mean PI of the uterine artery (p<0.001). The total average PI score of the right and left uterine arteries in groups receiving vitamin E in accompanied with aspirin was lower than the two counterparts significantly (p<0.001). Vitamin E, aspirin and especially their combination are effective in improving uterine artery blood flow in women with recurrent abortion due to impaired uterine blood flow. More well-designed studies are needed to find out whether the enhancement of uterine perfusion may lead to a better pregnancy outcome.

Landscape genetic structure of coastal tailed frogs (Ascaphus truei) in protected vs. managed forests.

PubMed

Spear, Stephen F; Storfer, Andrew

2008-11-01

Habitat loss and fragmentation are the leading causes of species' declines and extinctions. A key component of studying population response to habitat alteration is to understand how fragmentation affects population connectivity in disturbed landscapes. We used landscape genetic analyses to determine how habitat fragmentation due to timber harvest affects genetic population connectivity of the coastal tailed frog (Ascaphus truei), a forest-dwelling, stream-breeding amphibian. We compared rates of gene flow across old-growth (Olympic National Park) and logged landscapes (Olympic National Forest) and used spatial autoregression to estimate the effect of landscape variables on genetic structure. We detected higher overall genetic connectivity across the managed forest, although this was likely a historical signature of continuous forest before timber harvest began. Gene flow also occurred terrestrially, as connectivity was high across unconnected river basins. Autoregressive models demonstrated that closed forest and low solar radiation were correlated with increased gene flow. In addition, there was evidence for a temporal lag in the correlation of decreased gene flow with harvest, suggesting that the full genetic impact may not appear for several generations. Furthermore, we detected genetic evidence of population bottlenecks across the Olympic National Forest, including at sites that were within old-growth forest but surrounded by harvested patches. Collectively, this research suggests that absence of forest (whether due to natural or anthropogenic changes) is a key restrictor of genetic connectivity and that intact forested patches in the surrounding environment are necessary for continued gene flow and population connectivity.

Increased planned delivery contributes to declining rates of pregnancy hypertension in Australia: a population-based record linkage study.

PubMed

Roberts, Christine L; Algert, Charles S; Morris, Jonathan M; Ford, Jane B

2015-10-05

Since the 1990s, pregnancy hypertension rates have declined in some countries, but not all. Increasing rates of early planned delivery (before the due date) have been hypothesised as the reason for the decline. The aim of this study was to explore whether early planned delivery can partly explain the declining pregnancy hypertension rates in Australia. Population-based record linkage study utilising linked birth and hospital records. A cohort of 1,076,122 deliveries in New South Wales, Australia, 2001-2012. Pregnancy hypertension (including gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia and eclampsia) was the main outcome; pre-eclampsia was a secondary outcome. From 2001 to 2012, pregnancy hypertension rates declined by 22%, from 9.9% to 7.7%, and pre-eclampsia by 27%, from 3.3% to 2.4% (trend p<0.0001). At the same time, planned deliveries increased: prelabour caesarean section by 43% (12.9-18.4%) and labour inductions by 10% (24.8-27.2%). Many maternal risk factors for pregnancy hypertension significantly increased (p<0.01) over the study period including nulliparity, age ≥35 years, diabetes, overweight and obesity, and use of assisted reproductive technologies; some risk factors decreased including multifetal pregnancies, age <20 years, autoimmune diseases and previous pregnancy hypertension. Given these changes in risk factors, the pregnancy hypertension rate was predicted to increase to 10.5%. Examination of annual gestational age distributions showed that pregnancy hypertension rates actually declined from 38 weeks gestation and were steepest from 41 weeks; at least 36% of the decrease could be attributed to planned deliveries. The risk factors for pregnancy hypertension were also risk factors for planned delivery. It appears that an unanticipated consequence of increasing early planned deliveries is a decline in the incidence of pregnancy hypertension. Women with risk factors for hypertension were relatively more likely to be selected for early delivery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Disease progression among 446 children with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes located in Scandinavia, Europe, and North America during the last 27 yr.

PubMed

Max Andersen, Marie Louise; Nielsen, Lotte B; Svensson, Jannet; Pörksen, Sven; Hougaard, Philip; Beam, Craig; Greenbaum, Carla; Becker, Dorothy; Petersen, Jacob S; Hansen, Lars; Mortensen, Henrik B

2014-08-01

To clarify whether the rate of decline in stimulated C-peptide (SCP) from 2 to 15 months after diagnosis has changed over an interval of 27 yr. The rate of decline in SCP levels at 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15 months after diagnosis was compared in four paediatric cohorts from Scandinavian and European countries including 446 children with new onset type 1 diabetes (T1D, 1982-2004). Findings were evaluated against 78 children (2004-2009) from the TrialNet studies. The mean rate of decline [%/month (±SEM)] in SCP for a 10-yr-old child was 7.7%/month (±1.5) in the 1982-1985 Cohort, 6.3%/month (±1.7) in the 1995-1998 Cohort, 7.8%/month (±0.7) in the 1999-2000 Cohort, and 10.7%/month (±0.9) in the latest 2004-2005 Cohort (p = 0.05). Including the TrialNet Cohort with a rate of decline in SCP of 10.0%/month (±0.9) the differences between the cohorts are still significant (p = 0.039). The rate of decline in SCP was negatively associated with age (p < 0.0001), insulin antibodies (IA) (p = 0.003), and glutamic acid decarboxylase-65 (GAD65A) (p = 0.03) initially with no statistically significant effect of body mass index (BMI) Z-score at 3 months. Also, at 3 months the time around partial remission, the effect of age on SCP was significantly greater in children ≤5 yr compared with older children (p ≤ 0.0001). During the past 27 yr, initial C-peptide as well as the rate of C-peptide decline seem to have increased. The rate of decline was affected significantly by age, GAD65A, and IA, but not BMI Z-score or initial C-peptide. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Use of age-period-cohort models to estimate effects of vehicle age, year of crash and year of vehicle manufacture on driver injury and fatality rates in single vehicle crashes in New South Wales, 2003-2010.

PubMed

Anderson, R W G; Searson, D J

2015-02-01

A novel application of age-period-cohort methods are used to explain changes in vehicle based crash rates in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2003-2010. Models are developed using vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort to explain changes in the rate of single vehicle driver fatalities and injuries in vehicles less than 13 years of age. Large declines in risk are associated with vehicle cohorts built after about 1996. The decline in risk appears to have accelerated to 12 percent per vehicle cohort year for cohorts since 2004. Within each cohort, the risk of crashing appears to be a minimum at two years of age and increases as the vehicle ages beyond this. Period effects (i.e., other road safety measures) between 2003 and 2010 appear to have contributed to declines of up to about two percent per annum to the driver-fatality single vehicle crash rate, and possibly only negligible improvements to the driver-injury single vehicle crash rate. Vehicle improvements appear to have been responsible for a decline in per-vehicle crash risk of at least three percent per calendar year for both severity levels over the same period. Given the decline in risk associated with more recent vehicle cohorts and the dynamics of fleet turnover, continued declines in per-vehicle crash risk over coming years are almost certain. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Microbleeds do not affect rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease.

PubMed

van der Vlies, Annelies E; Goos, Jeroen D C; Barkhof, Frederik; Scheltens, Philip; van der Flier, Wiesje M

2012-08-21

To investigate the relationship between brain microbleeds (MBs) and the rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer disease (AD). In this cohort study, we studied 221 patients with AD with available baseline MRI scans (1.0 or 1.5 T) and at least 2 Mini-Mental State Examinations (MMSE) scores obtained more than 1 year apart from our memory clinic. Mean ± SD follow-up time was 3 ± 1 years, and patients had a median of 4 MMSE scores (range 2-17). We used linear mixed models with sex and age as covariates to investigate whether MBs influenced the rate of cognitive decline. Mean age was 68 ± 9 years, 109 (49%) patients were female, and the baseline MMSE score was 22 ± 4. There were 39 patients (18%) with MBs (median 2, range 1-27) and 182 without. Linear mixed models showed that overall patients declined 2 MMSE points per year. We found no association of the presence of MBs with baseline MMSE or change in MMSE. Adjustment for atrophy, white matter hyperintensities, lacunes, and vascular risk factors did not change the results nor did stratification for MB location, APOE ε4 carriership, or age at onset (≤65 years vs >65 years). Repeating the analyses with number of MBs as predictor rendered similar results. MBs did not influence the rate of cognitive decline in patients with AD. The formerly reported increased risk of mortality in patients with MBs seems not to be attributable to a steeper rate of decline per se but might be due to vascular events, including (hemorrhagic) stroke.

Photosynthetic declines are induced by Phytophthora ramorum infection and exposure to elicitins

Treesearch

Daniel K. Manter; Rick G. Kelsey; Joseph J. Karchesy

2008-01-01

Infection of compatible plants by Phytophthora spp. often leads to a decline in stomatal conductance and photosynthesis, although the mechanistic basis for such declines is not completely understood. In many cases, declines in leaf gas exchange rates have been linked to losses in water supply capacity associated with root and/or xylem. However, the...

Rates of speciation in the fossil record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1998-01-01

Data from palaeontology and biodiversity suggest that the global biota should produce an average of three new species per year. However, the fossil record shows large variation around this mean. Rates of origination have declined through the Phanerozoic. This appears to have been largely a function of sorting among higher taxa (especially classes), which exhibit characteristic rates of speciation (and extinction) that differ among them by nearly an order of magnitude. Secular decline of origination rates is hardly constant, however; many positive deviations reflect accelerated speciation during rebounds from mass extinctions. There has also been general decline in rates of speciation within major taxa through their histories, although rates have tended to remain higher among members in tropical regions. Finally, pulses of speciation appear sometimes to be associated with climate change, although moderate oscillations of climate do not necessarily promote speciation despite forcing changes in species' geographical ranges.

Well blowout rates in California Oil and Gas District 4--Update and Trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jordan, Preston D.; Benson, Sally M.

2009-10-01

Well blowouts are one type of event in hydrocarbon exploration and production that generates health, safety, environmental and financial risk. Well blowouts are variously defined as 'uncontrolled flow of well fluids and/or formation fluids from the wellbore' or 'uncontrolled flow of reservoir fluids into the wellbore'. Theoretically this is irrespective of flux rate and so would include low fluxes, often termed 'leakage'. In practice, such low-flux events are not considered well blowouts. Rather, the term well blowout applies to higher fluxes that rise to attention more acutely, typically in the order of seconds to days after the event commences. Itmore » is not unusual for insurance claims for well blowouts to exceed US$10 million. This does not imply that all blowouts are this costly, as it is likely claims are filed only for the most catastrophic events. Still, insuring against the risk of loss of well control is the costliest in the industry. The risk of well blowouts was recently quantified from an assembled database of 102 events occurring in California Oil and Gas District 4 during the period 1991 to 2005, inclusive. This article reviews those findings, updates them to a certain extent and compares them with other well blowout risk study results. It also provides an improved perspective on some of the findings. In short, this update finds that blowout rates have remained constant from 2005 to 2008 within the limits of resolution and that the decline in blowout rates from 1991 to 2005 was likely due to improved industry practice.« less

Decadal surface water quality trends under variable climate, land use, and hydrogeochemical setting in Iowa, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Christopher T.; Bekins, Barbara A.; Kalkhoff, Stephen J.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Liao, Lixia; Barnes, Kimberlee K.

2014-01-01

Understanding how nitrogen fluxes respond to changes in agriculture and climate is important for improving water quality. In the midwestern United States, expansion of corn cropping for ethanol production led to increasing N application rates in the 2000s during a period of extreme variability of annual precipitation. To examine the effects of these changes, surface water quality was analyzed in 10 major Iowa Rivers. Several decades of concentration and flow data were analyzed with a statistical method that provides internally consistent estimates of the concentration history and reveals flow-normalized trends that are independent of year-to-year streamflow variations. Flow-normalized concentrations of nitrate+nitrite-N decreased from 2000 to 2012 in all basins. To evaluate effects of annual discharge and N loading on these trends, multiple conceptual models were developed and calibrated to flow-weighted annual concentrations. The recent declining concentration trends can be attributed to both very high and very low discharge in the 2000s and to the long (e.g., 8 year) subsurface residence times in some basins. Dilution of N and depletion of stored N occurs in years with high discharge. Reduced N transport and increased N storage occurs in low-discharge years. Central Iowa basins showed the greatest reduction in flow-normalized concentrations, likely because of smaller storage volumes and shorter residence times. Effects of land-use changes on the water quality of major Iowa Rivers may not be noticeable for years or decades in peripheral basins of Iowa, and may be obscured in the central basins where extreme flows strongly affect annual concentration trends.

Population pressures in Latin America. [Updated reprint].

PubMed

Merrick, T W

1991-04-01

This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.

Trends in rates of occupational fatal injuries in the United States (1983-92).

PubMed

Bailer, A J; Stayner, L T; Stout, N A; Reed, L D; Gilbert, S J

1998-07-01

An updated version of a national surveillance system of traumatic occupational fatalities was used to explore adjusted and unadjusted trends in rates of fatal injury. Data from the national traumatic occupational fatalities surveillance system were combined with data on employment from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poisson regression was then used to examine trends in rates of occupational fatality injuries while controlling for demographic and workplace characteristics. Adjusted annual changes in rates of fatal injuries ranged from a decline of 6.2% for workers in technical and administrative support occupations--for example, health, science, and engineering technicians, pilots, computer programmers--to an increase of 1.6% in machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors. For industries, annual changes ranged from a decline of 5.3% for workers in public administration--for example, justice, public order, and safety workers--to an increase of 2.6% for workers in the wholesale trade. By comparison, the annual decline over all industries and occupations was 3.1%. In many industries and occupations, an effect modification of annual trends by the age of the worker was also found with the oldest workers experiencing either no decline or a significant increase in rates of fatal injuries. This general pattern of decline, adjusted for the effects of demographic characteristics of the worker population, is encouraging; however, increases in rates of fatal injuries found in particular industries and occupations, suggest appropriate targets for increased injury prevention efforts.

Trends in rates of occupational fatal injuries in the United States (1983-92)

PubMed Central

Bailer, A. J.; Stayner, L. T.; Stout, N. A.; Reed, L. D.; Gilbert, S. J.

1998-01-01

OBJECTIVES: An updated version of a national surveillance system of traumatic occupational fatalities was used to explore adjusted and unadjusted trends in rates of fatal injury. METHODS: Data from the national traumatic occupational fatalities surveillance system were combined with data on employment from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Poisson regression was then used to examine trends in rates of occupational fatality injuries while controlling for demographic and workplace characteristics. RESULTS: Adjusted annual changes in rates of fatal injuries ranged from a decline of 6.2% for workers in technical and administrative support occupations--for example, health, science, and engineering technicians, pilots, computer programmers--to an increase of 1.6% in machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors. For industries, annual changes ranged from a decline of 5.3% for workers in public administration--for example, justice, public order, and safety workers--to an increase of 2.6% for workers in the wholesale trade. By comparison, the annual decline over all industries and occupations was 3.1%. In many industries and occupations, an effect modification of annual trends by the age of the worker was also found with the oldest workers experiencing either no decline or a significant increase in rates of fatal injuries. CONCLUSIONS: This general pattern of decline, adjusted for the effects of demographic characteristics of the worker population, is encouraging; however, increases in rates of fatal injuries found in particular industries and occupations, suggest appropriate targets for increased injury prevention efforts.   PMID:9816383

Evaluation of Borama tuberculosis control program in Somaliland, Somalia.

PubMed

Qayad, Mohamed Gedi; Tarsitani, Gianfranco

2017-02-28

The Borama TB program in Somalia lost resources for TB operations in 2003. We evaluated the impact of the loss on the program. Pre-event (2002-2003) and post-event (2007) design were used. All TB patients registered in Borama and a sample of four months from Hargeisa (comparison) TB patients in both periods were abstracted. The following TB treatment outcomes were estimated: treatment success, treatment failure, case fatality, treatment interruption and transfer rates, along with percentage of patients with sputum specimen prior to treatment, percentage of patients from neighboring countries, and monthly average patients enrolled in treatment. The pre-event to post-event outcomes and measures were compared using descriptive and multivariate analyses. In total, 3,367 TB cases were abstracted. In Borama, the TB treatment success rate increased 6% in the post-event. The treatment failure and interruption rates both declined 75%. Monthly average TB patients declined 55%. Percentage of patients smear tested prior to the initiation of the treatment declined 9%. Percentage of TB patients from neighboring countries and other parts of Somalia declined 51%. Treatment interruption/transfer rates declined significantly in the post-event, compared to the pre-event period. Treatment failure/death rate did not change in the post-event period. In Hargeisa, the treatment success, failure/death, and interruption/transfer rates were similar in both periods. The RR did not change in these measures after adjusting for age and gender. This study indicates a significant setback to the Borama TB control program in the majority of measures evaluated, except the TB success rate.

Geohydrologic characteristics and simulated response to pumping stresses in the Sparta aquifer in East-Central Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzpatrick, Daniel J.; Kilpatrick, John M.; McWreath, Harry

1990-01-01

A finite difference digital model of the Sparta aquifer system in Arkansas was developed to aid in assessing the geohydrologic characteristics of the aquifer as well as the impact of withdrawals on water-level declines in the aquifer. The model consists of two layers. The Cockfield aquifer, represented by layer 1, was modeled as a constant head surface. The Sparta aquifer is represented by layer 2. The base of the Sparta aquifer was modeled as a no-flow boundary. The model boundaries to the north, south, and east in Mississippi were represented by specified heads, while boundaries to the west in Louisiana were represented as no flow. The model period of 1989 to 1985 was divided into 25 stress periods. Appropriate aquifer withdrawals were assigned to each stress period. Calibrated hydraulic conductivities of the Sparta aquifer, ranged from 1 to 35 ft/day. Calibrated hydraulic vertical conductivities of the Cook Mountain confining unit ranged from 0.0003 to 0.000009 ft/day. The calibrated storage coefficient of the aquifer was 0.0001. More than 80% of the recharge to the aquifer came from vertical leakage and from direct recharge on the outcrop. Greater than 90 % of outflow from the aquifer was from pumpage or leakage to rivers. Theoretical pumping schemes to the year 2005 indicated that virtually no change to the potentiometric surface occurred when 1985 pumping rates were extended to 2005. Doubling of pumpage over the entire study area resulted in additional water-level declines of up to 130 ft. 

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xue; Ye, Si-Yuan; Wei, Ai-Hua; Zhou, Peng-Peng; Wang, Li-Heng

2017-09-01

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011-2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961-2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.

Early body composition, but not body mass, is associated with future accelerated decline in muscle quality

PubMed Central

Chiles Shaffer, Nancy; Gonzalez‐Freire, Marta; Shardell, Michelle D.; Zoli, Marco; Studenski, Stephanie A.; Ferrucci, Luigi

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Muscle quality (MQ) or strength‐to‐mass ratio declines with aging, but the rate of MQ change with aging is highly heterogeneous across individuals. The identification of risk factors for accelerated MQ decline may offer clues to identity the underpinning physiological mechanisms and indicate targets for prevention and treatment. Using data from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, we tested whether measures of body mass and body composition are associated with differential rates of changes in MQ with aging. Methods Participants included 511 men and women, aged 50 years or older, followed for an average of 4 years (range: 1–8). MQ was operationalized as ratio between knee‐extension isokinetic strength and CT‐thigh muscle cross‐sectional area. Predictors included body mass and body composition measures: weight (kg), body mass index (BMI, kg/m2), dual‐energy x‐ray absorptiometry‐measured total body fat mass (TFM, kg) and lean mass (TLM, kg), and body fatness (TFM/weight). Covariates were baseline age, sex, race, and body height. Results Muscle quality showed a significant linear decline over the time of the follow up (average rate of decline 0.02 Nm/cm2 per year, P < .001). Independent of covariates, neither baseline body weight (P = .756) nor BMI (P = .777) was predictive of longitudinal rate of decline in MQ. Instead, higher TFM and lower TLM at baseline predicted steeper longitudinal decline in MQ (P = .036 and P < .001, respectively). In particular, participants with both high TFM and low TLM at baseline experienced the most dramatic decline compared with those with low TFM and high TLM (about 3% per year vs. 0.5% per year, respectively). Participants in the higher tertile of baseline body fatness presented a significantly faster decline of MQ than the rest of the population (P = .021). Similar results were observed when body mass, TFM, and TLM were modeled as time‐dependent predictors. Conclusions Body composition, but not weight nor BMI, is associated with future MQ decline, suggesting that preventive strategies aimed at maintaining good MQ with aging should specifically target body composition features. PMID:28198113

Population genetic structure and disease in montane boreal toads: More heterozygous individuals are more likely to be infected with amphibian chytrid

USGS Publications Warehouse

Addis, Brett; Lowe, Winsor; Hossack, Blake R.; Allendorf, Fred

2015-01-01

Amphibians are more threatened than any other vertebrate group, with 41 % of species classified as threatened. The causes of most declines are not well understood, though many declines have been linked to disease. Additionally, amphibians are physiologically constrained to moist habitats and considered poor dispersers; thus, they may suffer genetic consequences of population isolation. To understand threats to the persistence of boreal toads (Bufo boreas) in Glacier National Park, USA, we genotyped 551 individuals at 11 microsatellite loci and used Bayesian clustering methods to describe population genetic structure and identify barriers to gene flow. We found evidence of two primary genetic groups that differed substantially in elevation and two secondary groups within the high elevation group. There was also evidence of further substructure within the southern high elevation group, suggesting mountain ridges are barriers to gene flow at local scales. Overall, genetic variation was high, but allelic richness declined with increasing elevation, reflecting greater isolation or smaller effective population sizes of high altitude populations. We tested for Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the fungal pathogen which causes chytridiomycosis, and we found that 35 of 199 toads were positive for Bd. Unexpectedly, more heterozygous individuals were more likely to be infected. This suggests that dispersal facilitates the spread of disease because heterozygosity may be highest where dispersal and gene flow are greatest.

Using landscape epidemiological models to understand the distribution of chronic wasting disease in the Midwestern USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Stacie J.; Samuel, Michael D.; Rolley, Robert E.; Shelton, Paul

2013-01-01

Animal movement across the landscape plays a critical role in the ecology of infectious wildlife diseases. Dispersing animals can spread pathogens between infected areas and naïve populations. While tracking free-ranging animals over the geographic scales relevant to landscape-level disease management is challenging, landscape features that influence gene flow among wildlife populations may also influence the contact rates and disease spread between populations. We used spatial diffusion and barriers to white-tailed deer gene flow, identified through landscape genetics, to model the distribution of chronic wasting disease (CWD) in the infected region of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois, USA. Our generalized linear model showed that risk of CWD infection declined exponentially with distance from current outbreaks, and inclusion of gene flow barriers dramatically improved fit and predictive power of the model. Our results indicate that CWD is spreading across the Midwestern landscape from these two endemic foci, but spread is strongly influenced by highways and rivers that also reduce deer gene flow. We used our model to plot a risk map, providing important information for CWD management by identifying likely routes of disease spread and providing a tool for prioritizing disease monitoring and containment efforts. The current analysis may serve as a framework for modeling future disease risk drawing on genetic information to investigate barriers to spread and extending management and monitoring beyond currently affected regions.

Water-level decline in the Apalachicola River, Florida, from 1954 to 2004, and effects on floodplain habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Light, Helen M.; Vincent, Kirk R.; Darst, Melanie R.; Price, Franklin D.

2006-01-01

From 1954 to 2004, water levels declined in the nontidal reach of the Apalachicola River, Florida, as a result of long-term changes in stage-discharge relations. Channel widening and deepening, which occurred throughout much of the river, apparently caused the declines. The period of most rapid channel enlargement began in 1954 and occurred primarily as a gradual erosional process over two to three decades, probably in response to the combined effect of a dam located at the head of the study reach (106 miles upstream from the mouth of the river), river straightening, dredging, and other activities along the river. Widespread recovery has not occurred, but channel conditions in the last decade (1995-2004) have been relatively stable. Future channel changes, if they occur, are expected to be minor. The magnitude and extent of water-level decline attributable to channel changes was determined by comparing pre-dam stage (prior to 1954) and recent stage (1995-2004) in relation to discharge. Long-term stage data for the pre-dam period and recent period from five streamflow gaging stations were related to discharge data from a single gage just downstream from the dam, by using a procedure involving streamflow lag times. The resulting pre-dam and recent stage-discharge relations at the gaging stations were used in combination with low-flow water-surface profile data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to estimate magnitude of water-level decline at closely spaced locations (every 0.1 mile) along the river. The largest water-level declines occurred at the lowest discharges and varied with location along the river. The largest water-level decline, 4.8 feet, which occurred when sediments were scoured from the streambed just downstream from the dam, has been generally known and described previously. This large decline progressively decreased downstream to a magnitude of 1 foot about 40 river miles downstream from the dam, which is the location that probably marks the downstream limit of the influence of the dam on bed scour. Downstream from that location, previously unreported water-level declines progressively increased to 3 feet at a location 68 miles downstream from the dam, probably as a result of various channel modifications conducted in that part of the river. Water-level declines in the river have substantially changed long-term hydrologic conditions in more than 200 miles of off-channel floodplain sloughs, streams, and lakes and in most of the 82,200 acres of floodplain forests in the nontidal reach of the Apalachicola River. Decreases in duration of floodplain inundation at low discharges were large in the upstream-most 10 miles of the river (20-45 percent) and throughout most of the remaining 75 miles of the nontidal reach (10-25 percent). As a consequence of this decreased inundation, the quantity and quality of floodplain habitats for fish, mussels, and other aquatic organisms have declined, and wetland forests of the floodplain are changing in response to drier conditions. Water-level decline caused by channel change is probably the most serious anthropogenic impact that has occurred so far in the Apalachicola River and floodplain. This decline has been exacerbated by long-term reductions in spring and summer flow, especially during drought periods. Although no trends in total annual flow volumes were detected, long-term decreases in discharge for April, May, July, and August were apparent, and water-level declines during drought conditions resulting from decreased discharge in those 4 months were similar in magnitude to the water-level declines caused by channel changes. The observed changes in seasonal discharge are probably caused by a combination of natural climatic changes and anthropogenic activities in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin. Continued research is needed for geomorphic studies to assist in the design of future floodplain restoration efforts and for hydrologic studies to monitor change

Vascular Function Is Improved After an Environmental Enrichment Program: The Train the Brain-Mind the Vessel Study.

PubMed

Bruno, Rosa Maria; Stea, Francesco; Sicari, Rosa; Ghiadoni, Lorenzo; Taddei, Stefano; Ungar, Andrea; Bonuccelli, Ubaldo; Tognoni, Gloria; Cintoli, Simona; Del Turco, Serena; Sbrana, Silverio; Gargani, Luna; D'Angelo, Gennaro; Pratali, Lorenza; Berardi, Nicoletta; Maffei, Lamberto; Picano, Eugenio

2018-06-01

Environmental enrichment may slow cognitive decay possibly acting through an improvement in vascular function. Aim of the study was to assess the effects of a 7-month cognitive, social, and physical training program on cognitive and vascular function in patients with mild cognitive impairment. In a single-center, randomized, parallel-group study, 113 patients (age, 65-89 years) were randomized to multidomain training (n=55) or usual care (n=58). All participants underwent neuropsychological tests and vascular evaluation, including brachial artery flow-mediated dilation, carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, carotid distensibility, and assessment of circulating hematopoietic CD34+ and endothelial progenitor cells. At study entry, an age-matched control group (n=45) was also studied. Compared with controls, patients had at study entry a reduced flow-mediated dilation (2.97±2.14% versus 3.73±2.06%; P =0.03) and hyperemic stimulus (shear rate area under the curve, 19.1±15.7 versus 25.7±15.1×10 -3 ; P =0.009); only the latter remained significant after adjustment for confounders ( P =0.03). Training improved Alzheimer disease assessment scale cognitive (training, 14.0±4.8 to 13.1±5.5; nontraining, 12.1±3.9 to 13.2±4.8; P for interaction visit×training=0.02), flow-mediated dilation (2.82±2.19% to 3.40±1.81%, 3.05±2.08% to 2.24±1.59%; P =0.006; P =0.023 after adjustment for diameter and shear rate area under the curve), and circulating hematopoietic CD34 + cells and prevented the decline in carotid distensibility (18.4±5.3 to 20.0±6.6, 23.9±11.0 to 19.5±7.1 Pa -1 ; P =0.005). The only clinical predictor of improvement of cognitive function after training was established hypertension. There was no correlation between changes in measures of cognitive and vascular function. In conclusion, a multidomain training program slows cognitive decline, especially in hypertensive individuals. This effect is accompanied by improved systemic endothelial function, mobilization of progenitor CD34 + cells, and preserved carotid distensibility. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01725178. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Reproductive change in Bangladesh: evidence from recent data.

PubMed

Amin, R; Chowdhury, J; Ahmed, A U; Hill, R B; Kabir, M

1993-12-01

This analysis pertains to an examination of fertility trends, differences, contraceptive use, and fertility preferences in Bangladesh. Data were obtained from the 1969 National Impact Survey of Family Planning; the 1975 and 1989 Bangladesh Fertility Surveys; and the 1983, 1985, and 1991 Contraceptive Prevalence Surveys. Age specific fertility rates (ASFR), current pregnancy rates, and the mean number of children ever born (CEB) are the estimated fertility measures. The P/F ratios show a significant fertility decline since 1983. Total marital fertility declined from 7 births in the 1960s to 5.2 in the late 1980s. The average number of CEB declined from 4.3 in 1969 to 3.7 in 1991. The percentage of pregnant women declined from 13.3 to 10.6. The ASFR declined primarily among older married women. Fertility declined among all groups including landowners and landless, the educated and the uneducated, rural and urban populations. The extent of decline varies by group. The total marital fertility rate (TMFR) declined more for the educated and the urban populations. Chittagong region had the higher fertility regardless of the period. TMFR was lower among contraceptive users compared to nonusers. The increase in contraceptive use was from 4 to 40% between 1969 and 1991. The following factors affected the extent of fertility decline: contraceptive use, reduced child mortality concomitant with extended lactation and amenorrhea, increased malnutrition, and/or improvements in child survival. Fertility was depressed under conditions of increased poverty, which may stimulate contraceptive use and lead to malnutrition and subfecundity. The higher Chittagong fertility pattern is not explained by regional comparisons of pregnancy wastage, stillbirths, and induced abortion. Desire for no more children increased from 46 to 58% during 1969-91. The average preferred family size is declining. High density and deep-seated poverty explain fertility decline in regions other than Chittagong. Demand for contraception may increase with increases in family planning home visits and educational opportunities.

Seagrass on the brink: Decline of threatened seagrass Posidonia australis continues following protection

PubMed Central

Evans, Suzanna M.; Blick, Ray A. J.; Poore, Alistair G. B.; Vergés, Adriana

2018-01-01

Seagrasses are in decline globally due to sustained pressure from coastal development, water quality declines and the ongoing threat from climate change. The result of this decline has been a change in coastal productivity, a reduction in critical fisheries habitat and increased erosion. Attempts to slow this decline have included legislative protection of habitat and direct restoration efforts. Monitoring the success of these approaches requires tracking changes in the abundance of seagrasses, but such monitoring is frequently conducted at either too coarse a spatial scale, or too infrequently to adequately detect changes within individual meadows. Here, we used high resolution aerial imagery to quantify the change in meadows dominated by Posidonia australis over five years at 14 sites in five estuaries in south-eastern Australia. Australia has some of the world's most diverse and extensive seagrass meadows, but the widely distributed P. australis has a slow growth rate, recovers poorly after disturbance, and suffers runaway attrition if the conditions for recovery are not met. In 2010, after declines of 12–57% between the 1940s and 1980s, P. australis was listed as a threatened ecological community in New South Wales. We quantified changes in area at fine spatial scales and, where loss was observed, describe the general patterns of temporal decline within each meadow. Our results demonstrate that seagrass meadows dominated by P. australis underwent declines of ~ 2–40% total area at 11 out of 14 study sites between 2009 and 2014. In the iconic Sydney Harbour, our analyses suggest that P. australis meadows are declining at an average rate greater than 10% yr-1, exceeding the global rate of seagrass decline. Highlighting these alarming declines across the study region should serve as means to prioritise management action and review the effectiveness of legislative listing as a method to limit impacts at an ecosystem level. PMID:29624579

Projected ground-water development, ground-water levels, and stream-aquifer leakage in the South Fork Solomon River Valley between Webster Reservoir and Waconda Lake, north-central Kansas, 1979-2020

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kume, Jack; Lindgren, R.J.; Stullken, L.E.

1985-01-01

A two-dimensional finite difference computer model was used to project changes in the potentiometric surface, saturated thickness, and stream aquifer leakage in an alluvial aquifer resulting from four instances of projected groundwater development. The alluvial aquifer occurs in the South Fork Solomon River valley between Webster Reservoir and Waconda Lake in north-central Kansas. In the first two projections, pumpage for irrigation was held constant at 1978 rates throughout the projection period (1979-2020). In the second two projections, the 1978 pumpage was progressively increased each yr through 2020. In the second and fourth projections, surface water diversions in the Osborne Irrigation Canal were decreased by 50 %. For the third and fourth projections, each grid-block in the modeled area was classified initially as one of six types according to whether it represented irrigable or nonirrigable land, to its saturated thickness, to its location inside or outside the canal-river area, and to its pumping rate. The projected base-flow rates (leakage from the aquifer to the river) were lower during the irrigation season (June, July, and August) than during the other months of the yr because of the decline in hydraulic head produced by groundwater pumpage. Stream depletion, calculated as a decrease below the average (1970-78) estimated winter base-flow rate of 16.5 cu ft/sec, varied inversely with base flow. For the first two projections, a constant annual cycle of well pumpage and recharge was used throughout the projection period. Aquifer leakage to the river was nearly constant by the mid-to-late 1990's, implying that flow conditions had attained a stabilized annual cycle. The third and fourth projections never attained an annual stabilized cycle because the irrigation pumpage rate was increased each year. By the early 1980's, the hydraulic head had fallen below river stage, reversing the hydraulic gradient at the stream-aquifer interface and resulting in net leakage from the river to the aquifer during the summer months. By the early 1990 's, the projected potentiometric surface of the aquifer was lower than the river stage even during the winter and spring months. (Author 's abstract)

What's behind the Good News: The Decline in Teen Pregnancy Rates during the 1990s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flanigan, Christine

Noting that rates of teen pregnancies and births have declined over the past decade, this analysis examined how much of the progress is due to fewer teens having sex and how much to lower rates of pregnancy among sexually active teens. The analysis drew on data from the federal government's National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), a large,…

Understanding the Declining Canadian Homicide Rate: A Test of Holinger's Relative Cohort Size Hypothesis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leenaars, Antoon A.; Lester, David

2004-01-01

Homicide rates in Canada have shown a decline since 1975, but there has been little empirical study of this trend. P. Holinger (1987) predicted and confirmed that the size of the cohort aged 15-24 in the United States population was associated with the rise and fall of the homicide rate in that country. This study was designed to test this…

Trends in Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Bronchiolitis Hospitalization Rates in High-Risk Infants in a United States Nationally Representative Database, 1997–2012

PubMed Central

Doucette, Abigail; Jiang, Xiaohui; Fryzek, Jon; Coalson, Jenna; McLaurin, Kimmie; Ambrose, Christopher S.

2016-01-01

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant pediatric morbidity and is the most common cause of bronchiolitis. Bronchiolitis hospitalizations declined among US infants from 2000‒2009; however, rates in infants at high risk for RSV have not been described. This study examined RSV and unspecified bronchiolitis (UB) hospitalization rates from 1997‒2012 among US high-risk infants. Methods The Kids’ Inpatient Database (KID) infant annual RSV (ICD-9 079.6, 466.11, 480.1) and UB (ICD-9 466.19, 466.1) hospitalization rates were estimated using weighted counts. Denominators were based on birth hospitalizations with conditions associated with high-risk for RSV: chronic perinatal respiratory disease (chronic lung disease [CLD]); congenital airway anomalies (CAA); congenital heart disease (CHD); Down syndrome (DS); and other genetic, metabolic, musculoskeletal, and immunodeficiency conditions. Preterm infants could not be identified. Hospitalizations were characterized by mechanical ventilation, inpatient mortality, length of stay, and total cost (2015$). Poisson and linear regression were used to test statistical significance of trends. Results RSV and UB hospitalization rates were substantially elevated for infants with higher-risk CHD, CLD, CAA and DS without CHD compared with all infants. RSV rates declined by 47.0% in CLD and 49.7% in higher-risk CHD infants; no other declines in high-risk groups were observed. UB rates increased in all high-risk groups except for a 22.5% decrease among higher-risk CHD. Among high-risk infants, mechanical ventilation increased through 2012 to 20.4% and 13.5% of RSV and UB hospitalizations; geometric mean cost increased to $31,742 and $25,962, respectively, and RSV mortality declined to 0.9%. Conclusions Among high-risk infants between 1997 and 2012, RSV hospitalization rates declined among CLD and higher-risk CHD infants, coincident with widespread RSV immunoprophylaxis use in these populations. UB hospitalization rates increased in all high-risk groups except higher-risk CHD, suggesting improvement in the health status of higher-risk CHD infants, potentially due to enhanced surgical interventions. Mechanical ventilation use and RSV and UB hospitalization costs increased while RSV mortality declined. PMID:27050095

Field-scale Thermal Testing in a Generic Salt Disposal Environment Underground Research Laboratory (URL): Delineation of Principal Purpose Objectives and Hypotheses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sassani, David C.; Hardin, Ernest L.; Kuhlman, Kristopher L

The amount of brine present in domal salt formation is far less than in bedded salts (e.g., 0.01 to 0.1% compared with 1 to 3%). In salt domes, shear deformation associated with diapirism has caused existing brine to coalesce, leading to flow and expulsion. Brine migration behavior was investigated in bedded salt at WIPP (Nowak and McTigue 1987, SAND87-0880), and in domal salt at Asse (Coyle et al. 1987, BMI/ONWI-624). Test methods were not standardized, and the tests involved large diameter boreholes (17 to 36 in. diameter) and large apparatus. The tested intervals were proximal to mined openings (within approximatelymore » 1 diameter) where in situ stresses are redistributed due to excavation. The tests showed that (1) brine inflow rates can range over at least 2 orders of magnitude for domal vs. bedded salt, (2) that brine inflow is strongly associated with clay and interbedded permeable layers in bedded salt, and (3) that measurement systems can readily collect very small quantities of moisture over time frames of 2 years or longer. Brine inflow rates declined slightly with time in both test series, but neither series approached a state of apparent depletion. This range of flow magnitude could be significant to repository design and performance assessment, especially if inflow rates can be predicted using stratigraphic and geomechanical inputs, and can be shown to approach zero in a predictable manner.« less

Cardiovascular disease mortality in the Americas: current trends and disparities.

PubMed

de Fatima Marinho de Souza, Maria; Gawryszewski, Vilma Pinheiro; Orduñez, Pedro; Sanhueza, Antonio; Espinal, Marcos A

2012-08-01

To describe the current situation and trends in mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Americas and explore their association with economic indicators. This time series study analysed mortality data from 21 countries in the region of the Americas from 2000 to the latest available year. Age-adjusted death rates, annual variation in death rates. Regression analysis was used to estimate the annual variation and the association between age-adjusted rates and country income. Currently, CVD comprised 33.7% of all deaths in the Americas. Rates were higher in Guyana (292/100 000), Trinidad and Tobago (289/100 000) and Venezuela (246/100 000), and lower in Canada (108/100 000), Puerto Rico (121/100 000) and Chile (125/100 000). Male rates were higher than female rates in all countries. The trend analysis showed that CVD death rates in the Americas declined -19% overall (-20% among women and -18% among men). Most countries had a significant annual decline, except Guatemala, Guyana, Suriname, Paraguay and Panama. The largest annual declines were observed in Canada (-4.8%), the USA (-3.9%) and Puerto Rico (-3.6%). Minor declines were in Mexico (-0.8%) and Cuba (-1.1%). Compared with high-income countries the difference between the median of death rates in lower middle-income countries was 56.7% higher and between upper middle-income countries was 20.6% higher. CVD death rates have been decreasing in most countries in the Americas. Considerable disparities still remain in the current rates and trends.

Marked Campylobacteriosis Decline after Interventions Aimed at Poultry, New Zealand

PubMed Central

Sears, Ann; Wilson, Nick; Marshall, Jonathan; Muellner, Petra; Campbell, Donald M.; Lake, Robin J.; French, Nigel P.

2011-01-01

Beginning in the 1980s, New Zealand experienced rising annual rates of campylobacteriosis that peaked in 2006. We analyzed notification, hospitalization, and other data to explore the 2007–2008 drop in campylobacteriosis incidence. Source attribution techniques based on genotyping of Campylobacter jejuni isolates from patients and environmental sources were also used to examine the decline. In 2008, the annual campylobacteriosis notification rate was 161.5/100,000 population, representing a 54% decline compared with the average annual rate of 353.8/100,000 for 2002–2006. A similar decline was seen for hospitalizations. Source attribution findings demonstrated a 74% (95% credible interval 49%–94%) reduction in the number of cases attributed to poultry. These reductions coincided with the introduction of a range of voluntary and regulatory interventions to reduce Campylobacter spp. contamination of poultry. The apparent success of these interventions may inform approaches other countries could consider to help control foodborne campylobacteriosis. PMID:21749761

Aging, Brain Size, and IQ.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bigler, Erin D.; And Others

1995-01-01

Whether cross-sectional rates of decline for brain volume and the Performance Intellectual Quotient of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised were equivalent over the years 16 to 65 was studied with 196 volunteers. Results indicate remarkably similar rates of decline in perceptual-motor functions and aging brain volume loss. (SLD)

Species-specific declines in the linear extension of branching corals at a subtropical reef, Lord Howe Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Kristen D.; Heron, Scott F.; Pratchett, Morgan S.

2015-06-01

Reef-building corals are extremely sensitive to changing temperature regimes, such that sustained increases in ocean temperatures are generally expected to have negative effects on coral growth and survivorship. At high-latitude reefs, however, projected increases in ocean temperature may actually increase coral growth (relaxing constraints imposed by cool winter temperatures), though this will depend upon on the rate and extent of declines in aragonite saturation, which is already much lower at high latitudes. This study quantified linear extension rates of six scleractinian corals, Acropora yongei, Isopora cuneata, Pocillopora damicornis, Porites heronensis, Seriatopora hystrix, and Stylophora pistillata, at Lord Howe Island in 2010/11. Contemporary growth rates were compared to equivalent data collected in 1994/95. There was marked interspecific variation in growth rates, with A. yongei growing almost twice the rate of all other species. Temporal changes in annual growth also varied among species. Growth rates of both A. yongei and Pocillopora damicornis were 30 % of that recorded in 1994/95. However, growth rates of Porites heronensis had not changed. Declines in the growth rates of these branching species may be attributable to declines in aragonite saturation or increases in summertime temperatures above limits for optimal growth, but either way it appears that climate change is having negative effects on corals, even at subtropical locations.

Terminal decline of episodic memory and perceptual speed in a biracial population.

PubMed

Wilson, Robert S; Rajan, Kumar B; Barnes, Lisa L; Jansen, Willemijn; Amofa, Priscilla; Weuve, Jennifer; Evans, Denis A

2018-05-01

We compared trajectories of terminal cognitive decline in older Black (n = 3372) and White (n = 1756) persons from a defined population who completed tests of episodic memory and perceptual speed at 3-year intervals for up to 18 years. During a mean of 9.9 years of observation, 1608 Black persons and 902 White persons died. Preterminal decline of episodic memory did not differ by race. Terminal episodic memory decline began earlier in Black persons (mean of 4.3 years before death) than in White persons (mean = 3.9 years) and progressed more slowly. By contrast, terminal decline of perceptual speed began earlier in White persons (mean = 5.0 years) than in Black persons (mean = 4.5 years). Rate of perceptual speed decline was more rapid in White persons than in Black persons in both the preterminal and terminal periods. The results indicate that terminal cognitive decline occurs in Black persons but suggest that the rate of cognitive decline during the terminal period is less rapid in Black persons than in White persons.

The MMSE orientation for time domain is a strong predictor of subsequent cognitive decline in the elderly.

PubMed

Guerrero-Berroa, Elizabeth; Luo, Xiaodong; Schmeidler, James; Rapp, Michael A; Dahlman, Karen; Grossman, Hillel T; Haroutunian, Vahram; Beeri, Michal Schnaider

2009-12-01

The mini-mental state exam (MMSE) has been used to address questions such as determination of appropriate cutoff scores for differentiation of individuals with intact cognitive function from patients with dementia and rate of cognitive decline. However, little is known about the relationship of performance in specific cognitive domains to subsequent overall decline. To examine the specific and/or combined contribution of four MMSE domains (orientation for time, orientation for place, delayed recall, and attention) to prediction of overall cognitive decline on the MMSE. Linear mixed models were applied to 505 elderly nursing home residents (mean age = 85, > 12 years education = 27%; 79% F, mean follow-up = 3.20 years) to examine the relationship between baseline scores of these domains and total MMSE scores over time. Orientation for time was the only domain significantly associated with MMSE decline over time. Combination of poor delayed recall with either attention or orientation for place was associated with significantly increased decline on the MMSE. The MMSE orientation for time predicts overall decline on MMSE scores over time. A good functioning domain added to good functioning delayed recall was associated with slower rate of decline. Copyright (c) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Longitudinal associations between physical and cognitive performance among community-dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Tolea, Magdalena I; Morris, John C; Galvin, James E

2015-01-01

To assess the directionality of the association between physical and cognitive decline in later life, we compared patterns of decline in performance across groups defined by baseline presence of cognitive and/or physical impairment [none (n = 217); physical only (n = 169); cognitive only (n = 158), or both (n = 220)] in a large sample of participants in a cognitive aging study at the Knight Alzheimer's Disease Research Center at Washington University in St. Louis who were followed for up to 8 years (3,079 observations). Rates of decline reached 20% for physical performance and varied across cognitive tests (global, memory, speed, executive function, and visuospatial skills). We found that physical decline was better predicted by baseline cognitive impairment (slope = -1.22, p<0.001), with baseline physical impairment not contributing to further decline in physical performance (slope = -0.25, p = 0.294). In turn, baseline physical impairment was only marginally associated with rate of cognitive decline across various cognitive domains. The cognitive-functional association is likely to operate in the direction of cognitive impairment to physical decline although physical impairment may also play a role in cognitive decline/dementia. Interventions to prevent further functional decline and development of disability and complete dependence may benefit if targeted to individuals with cognitive impairment who are at increased risk.

Hypertension is associated with cognitive decline in elderly people at high risk for dementia.

PubMed

Wysocki, Michael; Luo, Xiaodong; Schmeidler, James; Dahlman, Karen; Lesser, Gerson T; Grossman, Hillel; Haroutunian, Vahram; Beeri, Michal Schnaider

2012-02-01

Cardiovascular risk factors including hypertension (HTN) have been shown to increase the risk of Alzheimer disease. The current study investigated whether individuals with HTN are more susceptible to increased cognitive decline and whether the influence of HTN on cognitive decline varied as a function of dementia severity. A total of 224 nursing home and assisted living residents, with a mean age of 84.9 (±7.6) years, were assessed longitudinally with Mini Mental State Exams (MMSEs) and Clinical Dementia Ratings (CDR). Baseline dementia status was defined by the CDR score. As described in , MMSE scores in persons with HTN and questionable dementia (CDR = 0.5) declined significantly faster than nonhypertensive questionably demented persons. Hypertensive participants did not decline significantly faster than nonhypertensive participants in persons with intact cognition (CDR = 0) or frank dementia (CDR ≥ 1). These results suggest an increased risk of subsequent cognitive decline in hypertensive individuals who are especially vulnerable to developing dementia and raises the possibility that avoiding or controlling HTN might reduce the rate of cognitive decline in cognitively vulnerable individuals, potentially delaying their conversion to full-fledged dementia.

Modelling lamb carcase pH and temperature decline parameters: relationship to shear force and abattoir variation.

PubMed

Hopkins, David L; Holman, Benjamin W B; van de Ven, Remy J

2015-02-01

Carcase pH and temperature decline rates influence lamb tenderness; therefore pH decline parameters are beneficial when modelling tenderness. These include pH at temperature 18 °C (pH@Temp18), temperature when pH is 6 (Temp@pH6), and pH at 24 h post-mortem (pH24). This study aimed to establish a relationship between shear force (SF) as a proxy for tenderness and carcase pH decline parameters estimated using both linear and spline estimation models for the m. longissimus lumborum (LL). The study also compared abattoirs regarding their achievement of ideal pH decline, indicative of optimal tenderness. Based on SF measurements of LL and m. semimembranosus collected as part of the Information Nucleus slaughter programme (CRC for Sheep Industry Innovation) this study found significant relationships between tenderness and pH24LL, consistent across the meat cuts and ageing periods examined. Achievement of ideal pH decline was shown not to have significantly differed across abattoirs, although rates of pH decline varied significantly across years within abattoirs.

Evaluation of the ground-water resources of parts of Lancaster and Berks Counties, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhart, J.M.; Lazorchick, G.J.

1984-01-01

Secondary openings in bedrock are the avenues for virtually all ground-water flow in a 626-sqare-mile area in Lancaster and Berks Counties, Pennsylvania. The number, size, and interconnection of secondary openings are functions of lithology, depth, and topography. Ground water actively circulates to depths of 150 to 300 feet below land surface. Total average annual ground-water recharge for the area is 388 million gallons per day, most of which discharges to streams from local, unconfined flow systems. A digital ground-water flow model was developed to simulate unconfined flow under several different recharge and withdrawal scenarios. On the basis of lithologic and hydrologic differences, the modeled area was sub-divided into 22 hydrogeologic units. A finite-difference grid with rectangular blocks, each 2,015 by 2,332 feet, was used. The model was calibrated under steady-state and transient conditions. The steady-state calibration was used to determine hydraulic conductivities and stream leakage coefficients and the transient calibration was used to determine specific yields. The 22 hydrogeologic units fall into four general lithologies: Carbonate rocks, metamorphic rocks, Paleozoic sedimentary rocks, and Triassic sedimentary rocks. Average hydraulic conductivity ranges from about 8.8 feet per day in carbonate units to about .5 feet per day in metamorphic units. The Stonehenge Formation (limestone) has the greatest average hydraulic conductivity--85.2 feet per day in carbonate units to about 0.11 feet per day in the greatest gaining-strem leakage coefficient--16.81 feet per day. Specific yield ranges from 0.06 to 0.09 in carbonate units, and is 0.02 to 0.015, and 0.012 in metamorphic, Paleozoic sedimentary, and Triassic sedimentary units, respectively. Transient simulations were made to determine the effects of four different combinations of natural and artificial stresses. Natural aquifer conditions (no ground-water withdrawals) and actual aquifer conditions (current ground-water withdrawals) were simulated for two years under normal seasonal and hypothetical drought (60-percent reduction in winter-spring recharge) conditions. In October, 6 months after the hypothetical drought, simulated declines in water-table altitude due to the drought occurred everywhere and ranged from a median of 3.6 feet in carbonate units to 8.7 feet in carbonate units. Simulated base flows for five major streams were reduced by 33 to 51 percent during the hypothetical drought. Also in October, maximum simulated declines in water-table altitude due to ground-water withdrawls ranged from 33 feet in carbonate units to 79 feet in Triassic sedimentary units. Simulated base flows for five major streams were reduced by the amount of ground water withdrawn. Finally, again in October, maximum simulated declines in water-table altitude due to the combination of hypothetical drought and ground-water withdrawls ranged from 38 feet in carbonate units to 109 feet in Triassic sedimentary units. Due to aquifer dewatering, simulated declines were as much as 24 feet greater than the sum of the separate simulated declines that were caused by hypothetical drought and ground-water withdrawals. Some of the greatest simulated declines were in well fields, operated by three municipalities that experienced water-supply problems during the 1980-81 drought.

Ecogeomorphic feedbacks in regrowth of travertine step-pool morphology after dam decommissioning, Fossil Creek, Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuller, Brian M.; Sklar, Leonard S.; Compson, Zacchaeus G.; Adams, Kenneth J.; Marks, Jane C.; Wilcox, Andrew C.

2011-03-01

The linkages between fluvial geomorphology and aquatic ecosystems are commonly conceptualized as a one-way causal chain in which geomorphic processes create the physical template for ecological dynamics. In streams with a travertine step-pool morphology, however, biotic processes strongly influence the formation and growth of travertine dams, creating the potential for numerous feedbacks. Here we take advantage of the decommissioning of a hydroelectric project on Fossil Creek, Arizona, where restoration of CaCO 3-rich baseflow has triggered rapid regrowth of travertine dams, to explore the interactions between biotic and abiotic factors in travertine morphodynamics. We consider three conceptual frameworks, where biotic factors independently modulate the rate of physical and chemical processes that produce travertine dams; combine with abiotic factors in a set of feedback loops; and work in opposition to abiotic processes, such that the travertine step-pool morphology reflects a dynamic balance between dominantly-biotic constructive processes and dominantly-abiotic destructive processes. We consider separately three phases of an idealized life cycle of travertine dams: dam formation, growth, and destruction by erosive floods. Dam formation is catalyzed by abiotic factors (e.g. channel constrictions, and bedrock steps) and biotic factors (e.g. woody debris, and emergent vegetation). From measurements of changes over time in travertine thickness on a bedrock step, we find evidence for a positive feedback between flow hydraulics and travertine accrual. Measurements of organic content in travertine samples from this step show that algal growth contributes substantially to travertine accumulation and suggest that growth is most rapid during seasonal algal blooms. To document vertical growth of travertine dams, we embedded 252 magnets into nascent travertine dams, along a 10 km stretch of river. Growth rates are calculated from changes over time in the magnetic field intensity at the dam surface. At each magnet we record a range of hydraulic and travertine composition variables to characterize the dominant mechanism of growth: abiotic precipitation, algal growth, trapping of organic material, or in situ plant growth. We find: (1) rapid growth of travertine dams following flow restoration, averaging more than 2 cm/year; (2) growth rates decline downstream, consistent with loss of dissolved constituents because of upstream travertine deposition, but also parallel to a decline in organic content in dam surface material and a downstream shift in dominant biotic mechanism; (3) biotic mechanisms are associated with faster growth rates; and (4) correlations between hydraulic attributes and growth rates are more consistent with biotic than abiotic controls. We conclude that the strong influence of living organisms on rates of travertine growth, coupled with the beneficial effects of travertine on ecosystem dynamics, demonstrate a positive feedback between biology and geomorphology. During our two-year study period, erosive flood flows occurred causing widespread removal of travertine. The temporal distribution of travertine growth and erosion over the study period is consistent with a bimodal magnitude-frequency relation in which growth dominates except when large, infrequent storms occur. This model may be useful in other systems where biology exerts strong controls on geomorphic processes.

Land cover effects on infiltration and preferential flow pathways in the high rainfall zone of Madagascar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwartendijk, Bob; van Meerveld, Ilja; Ravelona, Maafaka; Razakamanarivo, Herintsitohaina; Ghimire, Chandra; Bruijnzeel, Sampurno; Jones, Julia

2015-04-01

Shortened slash-and-burn cycles exhaust agricultural land and have resulted in extensive tracts of highly degraded land across the tropics. Land degradation typically results in decreased rainfall infiltration due to a reduced field-saturated hydraulic conductivity of the topsoil because of a progressive decline in soil organic matter, exposure to raindrop impact, surface sealing and compaction. This results, in turn, in enhanced surface runoff and erosion, and consequently less subsurface flow and groundwater recharge. On the other hand, natural vegetation regrowth or active reforestation can lead to a renewed accumulation of soil organic matter, macropore development and increased infiltration rates. As part of the P4GES project (Can Paying 4 Global Ecosystem Services values reduce poverty?; www.p4ges.org), we study the effects of land use change and reforestation on water resources in the Corridor Ankeniheny-Zahamena (CAZ) in eastern Madagascar. In this poster, we present the results of infiltration and preferential flow measurements in four different land uses in the southern part of the CAZ: (i) closed canopy forest, (ii) 3-14 year-old regrowth on fallow land (savokas), (iii) exhausted and severely degraded land (tany maty), and (iv) recently reforested sites (6-8 years old). The results show that infiltrability increases significantly after several years of forest regrowth after land abandonment, but it remains unclear whether active replanting decreases the time required for restoration of soil hydrological functioning. Preferential flow pathways differed strikingly between the respective land cover types: infiltration in mature forests was predominantly characterized by macropore flow (preferential flow pathways), whereas infiltration in exhausted agricultural land was dominated by matrix flow (few preferential flow pathways). Occurrence of preferential flow pathways in reforestation and fallow sites varied considerably. These results suggest that land cover significantly affects hydrological flow pathways and that natural regeneration and active reforestation of degraded land can result in increased infiltration and a reduced likelihood for surface runoff.

Teenage childbearing in the United States, 1960-1997.

PubMed

Ventura, S J; Freedman, M A

2000-07-01

Teenage childbearing in the United States has declined significantly in the 1990s. Still the U.S. teen birth rate is higher than in other developed countries; in 1997 it was 52.3 births per 1000 women aged 15 to 19. A steep rise in teen birth rates in the late 1980s generated a great deal of public concern and a variety of initiatives targeted to reducing teen births. Data from the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System are used to review and describe trends and variations in births and birth rates for teenagers for the period 1960-1997. Teen birth rates were much higher in the early 1960s than at present; in fact, rates for 18- to 19-year-olds were double what they are currently. In the 1990s, birth rates for teenagers dropped for younger and older teenagers, with greater declines recorded for younger teens. While rates have fallen in all population groups, the greatest declines have been experienced by black teenagers, whose rates have dropped 24% on average. %Trends in teen births and birth rates since 1960 have been affected by a variety of factors. These include wide swings in the number of female teenagers, substantial declines in marriage among older teens, falling birth rates for married teens concurrent with rapidly rising birth rates for unmarried teens, and sharp increases in sexual activity among teens that have abated only recently, according to the National Center for Health Statistics' National Survey of Family Growth. This review article also tracks changes in contraceptive practice and abortion rates.

Historic evidence for a link between riparian vegetation and bank erosion in the context of instream habitat restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salant, N.; Baillie, M. B.; Schmidt, J. C.; Intermountain CenterRiver Rehabilitation; Restoration

2010-12-01

An analysis of historic aerial photographs of the upper Strawberry River, Utah, demonstrates that rates of lateral bank erosion peaked with the loss of riparian cover during periods of willow removal for livestock grazing. Erosion rates have declined over the past two decades, concurrent with the removal of livestock grazing, modest increases in riparian cover, and the return of natural flows. Contrary to perception, present-day erosion rates are actually lower than pre-disturbance rates. Recent restoration activities to stabilize stream banks were based on the assumption that high erosion rates were contributing excess sediment to the streambed and degrading spawning gravels. However, our results show that while the historic loss of riparian vegetation contributed to an increase in bank erosion rates, bank erosion rates were not high prior to restoration. Furthermore, streambed samples show that the percentage of fine sediment in the substrate is insufficient to have a significant biological impact, supporting the finding that present-day bank erosion rates are not excessive relative to pre-disturbance rates. Current bank stabilization efforts were therefore motivated by a limited understanding of system conditions and history, suggesting that these restoration activities are unnecessary and misconceived. Our results demonstrate the large influence of riparian vegetation on bank erosion and instream habitat, as well as the importance of incorporating system history into restoration design.

QuickStats: Age-Adjusted Death Rates* for Males Aged 15-44 Years, by the Five Leading Causes of Death(†) - United States, 1999 and 2014.

PubMed

2016-08-12

The age-adjusted death rate for males aged 15-44 years was 10% lower in 2014 (156.6 per 100,000 population) than in 1999 (174.1). Among the five leading causes of death, the age-adjusted rates for three were lower in 2014 than in 1999: cancer (from 17.1 to 12.8; 25% decline), heart disease (20.1 to 17.0; 15% decline), and homicide (15.7 to 13.8; 12% decline). The age-adjusted death rates for two of the five causes were higher in 2014 than in 1999: suicide (20.1 to 22.5; 12% increase), and unintentional injuries (from 48.7 to 51.0; 5% increase).

Nutritional Status is Associated with Faster Cognitive Decline and Worse Functional Impairment in the Progression of Dementia: The Cache County Dementia Progression Study1

PubMed Central

Sanders, Chelsea; Behrens, Stephanie; Schwartz, Sarah; Wengreen, Heidi; Corcoran, Chris D.; Lyketsos, Constantine G.; Tschanz, JoAnn T.

2017-01-01

Nutritional status may be a modifiable factor in the progression of dementia. We examined the association of nutritional status and rate of cognitive and functional decline in a U.S. population-based sample. Study design was an observational longitudinal study with annual follow-ups up to 6 years of 292 persons with dementia (72% Alzheimer’s disease, 56% female) in Cache County, UT using the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-sb), and modified Mini Nutritional Assessment (mMNA). mMNA scores declined by approximately 0.50 points/year, suggesting increasing risk for malnutrition. Lower mMNA score predicted faster rate of decline on the MMSE at earlier follow-up times, but slower decline at later follow-up times, whereas higher mMNA scores had the opposite pattern (mMNA by time β = 0.22, p = 0.017; mMNA by time2 β = −0.04, p = 0.04). Lower mMNA score was associated with greater impairment on the CDR-sb over the course of dementia (β = 0.35, p < 0.001). Assessment of malnutrition may be useful in predicting rates of progression in dementia and may provide a target for clinical intervention. PMID:26967207

Nutritional Status is Associated with Faster Cognitive Decline and Worse Functional Impairment in the Progression of Dementia: The Cache County Dementia Progression Study1.

PubMed

Sanders, Chelsea; Behrens, Stephanie; Schwartz, Sarah; Wengreen, Heidi; Corcoran, Chris D; Lyketsos, Constantine G; Tschanz, JoAnn T

2016-02-27

Nutritional status may be a modifiable factor in the progression of dementia. We examined the association of nutritional status and rate of cognitive and functional decline in a U.S. population-based sample. Study design was an observational longitudinal study with annual follow-ups up to 6 years of 292 persons with dementia (72% Alzheimer's disease, 56% female) in Cache County, UT using the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDR-sb), and modified Mini Nutritional Assessment (mMNA). mMNA scores declined by approximately 0.50 points/year, suggesting increasing risk for malnutrition. Lower mMNA score predicted faster rate of decline on the MMSE at earlier follow-up times, but slower decline at later follow-up times, whereas higher mMNA scores had the opposite pattern (mMNA by time β= 0.22, p = 0.017; mMNA by time2 β= -0.04, p = 0.04). Lower mMNA score was associated with greater impairment on the CDR-sb over the course of dementia (β= 0.35, p <  0.001). Assessment of malnutrition may be useful in predicting rates of progression in dementia and may provide a target for clinical intervention.

Respiratory Muscle Strength Predicts Decline in Mobility in Older Persons

PubMed Central

Buchman, A.S.; Boyle, P.A.; Wilson, R.S.; Leurgans, S.; Shah, R.C.; Bennett, D.A.

2008-01-01

Objectives To test the hypothesis that respiratory muscle strength is associated with the rate of change in mobility even after controlling for leg strength and physical activity. Methods Prospective study of 890 ambulatory older persons without dementia who underwent annual clinical evaluations to examine change in the rate of mobility over time. Results In a linear mixed-effect model adjusted for age, sex, and education, mobility declined about 0.12 unit/year, and higher levels of respiratory muscle strength were associated with a slower rate of mobility decline (estimate 0.043, SE 0.012, p < 0.001). Respiratory muscle strength remained associated with the rate of change in mobility even after controlling for lower extremity strength (estimate 0.036, SE 0.012, p = 0.004). In a model that included terms for respiratory muscle strength, lower extremity strength and physical activity together, all three were independent predictors of mobility decline in older persons. These associations remained significant even after controlling for body composition, global cognition, the development of dementia, parkinsonian signs, possible pulmonary disease, smoking, joint pain and chronic diseases. Conclusion Respiratory muscle strength is associated with mobility decline in older persons independent of lower extremity strength and physical activity. Clinical interventions to improve respiratory muscle strength may decrease the burden of mobility impairment in the elderly. PMID:18784416

Temporal associations with declining Trichomonas vaginalis diagnosis rates among women in the state of Victoria, Australia, 1947 to 2005.

PubMed

Marrone, John; Fairley, Christopher K; Saville, Marian; Bradshaw, Catriona; Bowden, Francis J; Horvath, Leonie B; Donovan, Basil; Chen, Marcus; Hocking, Jane S

2008-06-01

To investigate the temporal associations between Trichomonas vaginalis (TV) diagnoses in women at a large urban sexual health clinic and a major Papanicolaou (Pap) smear screening laboratory in Victoria, Australia with Pap smear screening rates and the introduction of nitroimidazole treatments. An ecological analysis of TV diagnosis rates at the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre and the Victorian Cytology Service, Pap smear screening rates and nitroimidazole prescription data. Diagnoses of TV at the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre peaked in the 1950s at 20% to 30% and then rapidly declined through the 1960s and 1970s to below 1% in 1990. A similar pattern was observed at the Victorian Cytology Service. Metronidazole prescribing and opportunistic Pap smear screening began in Victoria in the 1960s coinciding with declining TV. The availability of tinidazole in 1976 led to further declines in TV in the late 1970s. A national cervical screening program introduced in 1991 was temporally associated with further declines in TV. Our analyses suggest that the introduction of metronidazole was associated with a large reduction in TV among Victorian women in the 1960s. The subsequent availability of tinidazole and increased Pap smear screening may have contributed to the current low TV prevalence in Victoria.