Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

2017-01-01

This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

Construction of a groundwater-flow model for the Big Sioux Aquifer using airborne electromagnetic methods, Sioux Falls, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Valder, Joshua F.; Delzer, Gregory C.; Carter, Janet M.; Smith, Bruce D.; Smith, David V.

2016-09-28

The city of Sioux Falls is the fastest growing community in South Dakota. In response to this continued growth and planning for future development, Sioux Falls requires a sustainable supply of municipal water. Planning and managing sustainable groundwater supplies requires a thorough understanding of local groundwater resources. The Big Sioux aquifer consists of glacial outwash sands and gravels and is hydraulically connected to the Big Sioux River, which provided about 90 percent of the city’s source-water production in 2015. Managing sustainable groundwater supplies also requires an understanding of groundwater availability. An effective mechanism to inform water management decisions is the development and utilization of a groundwater-flow model. A groundwater-flow model provides a quantitative framework for synthesizing field information and conceptualizing hydrogeologic processes. These groundwater-flow models can support decision making processes by mapping and characterizing the aquifer. Accordingly, the city of Sioux Falls partnered with the U.S. Geological Survey to construct a groundwater-flow model. Model inputs will include data from advanced geophysical techniques, specifically airborne electromagnetic methods.

Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

PubMed

Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

2015-09-15

Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Traffic Flow Management Wrap-Up

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grabbe, Shon

2011-01-01

Traffic Flow Management involves the scheduling and routing of air traffic subject to airport and airspace capacity constraints, and the efficient use of available airspace. Significant challenges in this area include: (1) weather integration and forecasting, (2) accounting for user preferences in the Traffic Flow Management decision making process, and (3) understanding and mitigating the environmental impacts of air traffic on the environment. To address these challenges, researchers in the Traffic Flow Management area are developing modeling, simulation and optimization techniques to route and schedule air traffic flights and flows while accommodating user preferences, accounting for system uncertainties and considering the environmental impacts of aviation. This presentation will highlight some of the major challenges facing researchers in this domain, while also showcasing recent innovations designed to address these challenges.

Resource Analysis of Cognitive Process Flow Used to Achieve Autonomy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

to be used as a decision - making aid to guide system designers and program managers not necessarily familiar with cognitive pro- cessing, or resource...implementing end-to-end cognitive processing flows multiplies and the impact of these design decisions on efficiency and effectiveness increases [1]. The...end-to-end cognitive systems and alternative computing technologies, then system design and acquisition personnel could make systematic analyses and

Discrete event simulation for healthcare organizations: a tool for decision making.

PubMed

Hamrock, Eric; Paige, Kerrie; Parks, Jennifer; Scheulen, James; Levin, Scott

2013-01-01

Healthcare organizations face challenges in efficiently accommodating increased patient demand with limited resources and capacity. The modern reimbursement environment prioritizes the maximization of operational efficiency and the reduction of unnecessary costs (i.e., waste) while maintaining or improving quality. As healthcare organizations adapt, significant pressures are placed on leaders to make difficult operational and budgetary decisions. In lieu of hard data, decision makers often base these decisions on subjective information. Discrete event simulation (DES), a computerized method of imitating the operation of a real-world system (e.g., healthcare delivery facility) over time, can provide decision makers with an evidence-based tool to develop and objectively vet operational solutions prior to implementation. DES in healthcare commonly focuses on (1) improving patient flow, (2) managing bed capacity, (3) scheduling staff, (4) managing patient admission and scheduling procedures, and (5) using ancillary resources (e.g., labs, pharmacies). This article describes applicable scenarios, outlines DES concepts, and describes the steps required for development. An original DES model developed to examine crowding and patient flow for staffing decision making at an urban academic emergency department serves as a practical example.

The Implementation of IS on the Knowledge Management and Mental Models at the Decision-Making Process

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

Management entities can also poll end stations to check the values of certain variables. Polling can be automatic or user initiated, but agents in the...the environment in which knowledge artifacts are created and managed , but the flow of knowledge itself remains almost indirect. For example... interaction of these loops with one another. Thus, the cognitive nature of feedback loops correlates the entity with the environment that the decision was

Improving management decision processes through centralized communication linkages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simanton, D. F.; Garman, J. R.

1985-01-01

Information flow is a critical element to intelligent and timely decision-making. At NASA's Johnson Space Center the flow of information is being automated through the use of a centralized backbone network. The theoretical basis of this network, its implications to the horizontal and vertical flow of information, and the technical challenges involved in its implementation are the focus of this paper. The importance of the use of common tools among programs and some future concerns related to file transfer, graphics transfer, and merging of voice and data are also discussed.

Acute asthma severity identification of expert system flow in emergency department

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, Nurul Atikah Mohd; Ahmad, Norazura; Ahmad, Nazihah; Desa, Wan Laailatul Hanim Mat

2017-11-01

Integration of computerized system in healthcare management help in smoothening the documentation of patient records, highly accesses of knowledge and clinical practices guideline, and advice on decision making. Exploit the advancement of artificial intelligent such as fuzzy logic and rule-based reasoning may improve the management of emergency department in terms of uncertainty condition and medical practices adherence towards clinical guideline. This paper presenting details of the emergency department flow for acute asthma severity identification with the embedding of acute asthma severity identification expert system (AASIES). Currently, AASIES is still in preliminary stage of system validation. However, the implementation of AASIES in asthma bay management is hope can reduce the usage of paper for manual documentation and be a pioneer for the development of a more complex decision support system to smoothen the ED management and more systematic.

Decision-making in irrigation networks: Selecting appropriate canal structures using multi-attribute decision analysis.

PubMed

Hosseinzade, Zeinab; Pagsuyoin, Sheree A; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy; Monem, Mohammad J

2017-12-01

The stiff competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural production sectors makes it necessary to have effective management of irrigation networks in farms. However, the process of selecting flow control structures in irrigation networks is highly complex and involves different levels of decision makers. In this paper, we apply multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methodology to develop a decision analysis (DA) framework for evaluating, ranking and selecting check and intake structures for irrigation canals. The DA framework consists of identifying relevant attributes for canal structures, developing a robust scoring system for alternatives, identifying a procedure for data quality control, and identifying a MADM model for the decision analysis. An application is illustrated through an analysis for automation purposes of the Qazvin irrigation network, one of the oldest and most complex irrigation networks in Iran. A survey questionnaire designed based on the decision framework was distributed to experts, managers, and operators of the Qazvin network and to experts from the Ministry of Power in Iran. Five check structures and four intake structures were evaluated. A decision matrix was generated from the average scores collected from the survey, and was subsequently solved using TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. To identify the most critical structure attributes for the selection process, optimal attribute weights were calculated using Entropy method. For check structures, results show that the duckbill weir is the preferred structure while the pivot weir is the least preferred. Use of the duckbill weir can potentially address the problem with existing Amil gates where manual intervention is required to regulate water levels during periods of flow extremes. For intake structures, the Neyrpic® gate and constant head orifice are the most and least preferred alternatives, respectively. Some advantages of the Neyrpic® gate are ease of operation and capacity to measure discharge flows. Overall, the application to the Qazvin irrigation network demonstrates the utility of the proposed DA framework in selecting appropriate structures for regulating water flows in irrigation canals. This framework systematically aids the decision process by capturing decisions made at various levels (individual farmers to high-level management). It can be applied to other cases where a new irrigation network is being designed, or where changes in irrigation structures need to be identified to improve flow control in existing networks. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A novel personal health system with integrated decision support and guidance for the management of chronic liver disease.

PubMed

Kiefer, Stephan; Schäfer, Michael; Bransch, Marco; Brimmers, Peter; Bartolomé, Diego; Baños, Janie; Orr, James; Jones, Dave; Jara, Maximilian; Stockmann, Martin

2014-01-01

A personal health system platform for the management of patients with chronic liver disease that incorporates a novel approach to integrate decision support and guidance through care pathways for patients and their doctors is presented in this paper. The personal health system incorporates an integrated decision support engine that guides patients and doctors through the management of the disease by issuing tasks and providing recommendations to both the care team and the patient and by controlling the execution of a Care Flow Plan based on the results of tasks and the monitored health status of the patient. This Care Flow Plan represents a formal, business process based model of disease management designed off-line by domain experts on the basis of clinical guidelines, knowledge of care pathways and an organisational model for integrated, patient-centred care. In this way, remote monitoring and treatment are dynamically adapted to the patient's actual condition and clinical symptoms and allow flexible delivery of care with close integration of specialists, therapists and care-givers.

Simulation of groundwater flow and analysis of the effects of water-management options in the North Platte Natural Resources District, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Steven M.; Flynn, Amanda T.; Vrabel, Joseph; Ryter, Derek W.

2015-08-12

The calibrated groundwater-flow model was used with the Groundwater-Management Process for the 2005 version of the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional groundwater model, MODFLOW–2005, to provide a tool for the NPNRD to better understand how water-management decisions could affect stream base flows of the North Platte River at Bridgeport, Nebr., streamgage in a future period from 2008 to 2019 under varying climatic conditions. The simulation-optimization model was constructed to analyze the maximum increase in simulated stream base flow that could be obtained with the minimum amount of reductions in groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. A second analysis extended the first to analyze the simulated base-flow benefit of groundwater withdrawals along with application of intentional recharge, that is, water from canals being released into rangeland areas with sandy soils. With optimized groundwater withdrawals and intentional recharge, the maximum simulated stream base flow was 15–23 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) greater than with no management at all, or 10–15 ft3/s larger than with managed groundwater withdrawals only. These results indicate not only the amount that simulated stream base flow can be increased by these management options, but also the locations where the management options provide the most or least benefit to the simulated stream base flow. For the analyses in this report, simulated base flow was best optimized by reductions in groundwater withdrawals north of the North Platte River and in the western half of the area. Intentional recharge sites selected by the optimization had a complex distribution but were more likely to be closer to the North Platte River or its tributaries. Future users of the simulation-optimization model will be able to modify the input files as to type, location, and timing of constraints, decision variables of groundwater withdrawals by zone, and other variables to explore other feasible management scenarios that may yield different increases in simulated future base flow of the North Platte River.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles.

PubMed

Horne, Avril C; Szemis, Joanna M; Webb, J Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horne, Avril C.; Szemis, Joanna M.; Webb, J. Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J.; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Informed Decision Making Process for Managing Environmental Flows in Small River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padikkal, S.; Rema, K. P.

2013-03-01

Numerous examples exist worldwide of partial or complete alteration to the natural flow regime of river systems as a consequence of large scale water abstraction from upstream reaches. The effects may not be conspicuous in the case of very large rivers, but the ecosystems of smaller rivers or streams may be completely destroyed over a period of time. While restoration of the natural flow regime may not be possible, at present there is increased effort to implement restoration by regulating environmental flow. This study investigates the development of an environmental flow management model at an icon site in the small river basin of Bharathapuzha, west India. To determine optimal environmental flow regimes, a historic flow model based on data assimilated since 1978 indicated a satisfactory minimum flow depth for river ecosystem sustenance is 0.907 m (28.8 m3/s), a value also obtained from the hydraulic model; however, as three of the reservoirs were already operational at this time a flow depth of 0.922 m is considered a more viable estimate. Analysis of daily stream flow in 1997-2006, indicated adequate flow regimes during the monsoons in June-November, but that sections of the river dried out in December-May with alarming water quality conditions near the river mouth. Furthermore, the preferred minimum `dream' flow regime expressed by stakeholders of the region is a water depth of 1.548 m, which exceeds 50 % of the flood discharge in July. Water could potentially be conserved for environmental flow purposes by (1) the de-siltation of existing reservoirs or (2) reducing water spillage in the transfer between river basins. Ultimately environmental flow management of the region requires the establishment of a co-ordinated management body and the regular assimilation of water flow information from which science based decisions are made, to ensure both economic and environmental concerns are adequately addressed.

Predicting the impact of land management decisions on overland flow generation: Implications for cesium migration in forested Fukushima watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R.; Steefel, Carl I.; Williams, Kenneth H.; Birkholzer, Jens T.

2018-03-01

The effects of land use and land cover (LULC) change on environmental systems across the land surface's "critical zone" are highly uncertain, often making prediction and risk management decision difficult. In a series of numerical experiments with an integrated hydrologic model, overland flow generation is quantified for both present day and forest thinning scenarios. A typhoon storm event in a watershed near the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant is used as an example application in which the interplay between LULC change and overland flow generation is important given that sediment-bound radionuclides may cause secondary contamination via surface water transport. Results illustrate the nonlinearity of the integrated system spanning from the deep groundwater to the atmosphere, and provide quantitative tools when determining the tradeoffs of different risk-mitigation strategies.

Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST) v1: Theoretical Documentation

EPA Science Inventory

The Watershed Management Optimization Support Tool (WMOST) is a screening model that is spatially lumped with options for a daily or monthly time step. It is specifically focused on modeling the effect of management decisions on the watershed. The model considers water flows and ...

Ecosystem services and emergent vulnerability in managed ecosystems: A geospatial decision-support tool

Treesearch

Colin M. Beier; Trista M. Patterson; F. Stuart Chapin III

2008-01-01

Managed ecosystems experience vulnerabilities when ecological resilience declines and key flows of ecosystem services become depleted or lost. Drivers of vulnerability often include local management actions in conjunction with other external, larger scale factors. To translate these concepts to management applications, we developed a conceptual model of feedbacks...

Will it rise or will it fall? Managing the complex effects of urbanization on base flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bhaskar, Aditi; Beesley, Leah; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, T. D.; Hamel, Perrine; Oldham, Carolyn; Roy, Allison

2016-01-01

Sustaining natural levels of base flow is critical to maintaining ecological function as stream catchments are urbanized. Research shows a variable response of stream base flow to urbanization, with base flow or water tables rising in some locations, falling in others, or elsewhere remaining constant. The variable baseflow response is due to the array of natural (e.g., physiographic setting and climate) and anthropogenic (e.g., urban development and infrastructure) factors that influence hydrology. Perhaps as a consequence of this complexity, few simple tools exist to assist managers to predict baseflow change in their local urban area. This paper addresses this management need by presenting a decision support tool. The tool considers the natural vulnerability of the landscape, together with aspects of urban development in predicting the likelihood and direction of baseflow change. Where the tool identifies a likely increase or decrease it guides managers toward strategies that can reduce or increase groundwater recharge, respectively. Where the tool finds an equivocal result, it suggests a detailed water balance be performed. The decision support tool is embedded within an adaptive-management framework that encourages managers to define their ecological objectives, assess the vulnerability of their ecological objectives to changes in water table height, and monitor baseflow responses to urbanization. We trial our framework using two very different case studies: Perth, Western Australia, and Baltimore, Maryland, USA. Together, these studies show how pre-development water table height, climate and geology together with aspects of urban infrastructure (e.g., stormwater practices, leaky pipes) interact such that urbanization has overall led to rising base flow (Perth) and falling base flow (Baltimore). Greater consideration of subsurface components of the water cycle will help to protect and restore the ecology of urban freshwaters.

How Green Water Flows structure be a decision indicator for ecological water allocation in arid Ejina Delta, China.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, J.; Du, C.; Zhang, Y.; Liu, X.

2014-12-01

Green water flows, a key ecohydrological process, dominates the hydrological cycle in arid region. The structure of green water flows reflects the landscape water consumption characteristics and can be easily obtained by means of remote sensing approach. In arid region, limited fresh water and fragile environment resulted in sharp contradictions between economy and natural ecosystem concerning water demands. To rationally allocate economic and ecological water use, to maximize the regional freshwater use efficiency, is the route one must take for sustainable development in arid area. The pursuit of the most necessary ecological protection function and the maximum ecological water use efficiency is the key to ecological water allocation. However, we are short of simple and quick detectable variables or indexes to assess ecological water allocation decision. This paper introduced the green water flows structure as a decision variable, chose Heihe river flow allocation to downstream Ejina Delta for ecological protection as an example, put forward why and how green water flows structure could be used for ecological water allocation decision. The authors expect to provide reference for integrated fresh water resources management practice in arid region.

A decision technology system for health care electronic commerce.

PubMed

Forgionne, G A; Gangopadhyay, A; Klein, J A; Eckhardt, R

1999-08-01

Mounting costs have escalated the pressure on health care providers and payers to improve decision making and control expenses. Transactions to form the needed decision data will routinely flow, often electronically, between the affected parties. Conventional health care information systems facilitate flow, process transactions, and generate useful decision information. Typically, such support is offered through a series of stand-alone systems that lose much useful decision knowledge and wisdom during health care electronic commerce (e-commerce). Integrating the stand-alone functions can enhance the quality and efficiency of the segmented support, create synergistic effects, and augment decision-making performance and value for both providers and payers. This article presents an information system that can provide complete and integrated support for e-commerce-based health care decision making. The article describes health care e-commerce, presents the system, examines the system's potential use and benefits, and draws implications for health care management and practice.

Development of prototype decision support systems for real-time freeway traffic routing. Volume I.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

For a traffic management system (TMS) to improve traffic flow, TMS operators must develop effective routing strategies based on the data collected by the system. The purpose of this research was to build prototype decision support systems (DSS) for t...

SUSTAIN – A Framework for Placement of Best Management Practices in Urban Watersheds to Protect Water Quality

EPA Science Inventory

Watershed and stormwater managers need modeling tools to evaluate alternative plans for water quality management and flow abatement techniques in urban and developing areas. A watershed-scale, decision-support framework that is based on cost optimization is needed to support gov...

Multicriteria decision analysis applied to Glen Canyon Dam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flug, M.; Seitz, H.L.H.; Scott, J.F.

2000-01-01

Conflicts in water resources exist because river-reservoir systems are managed to optimize traditional benefits (e.g., hydropower and flood control), which are historically quantified in economic terms, whereas natural and environmental resources, including in-stream and riparian resources, are more difficult or impossible to quantify in economic terms. Multicriteria decision analysis provides a quantitative approach to evaluate resources subject to river basin management alternatives. This objective quantification method includes inputs from special interest groups, the general public, and concerned individuals, as well as professionals for each resource considered in a trade-off analysis. Multicriteria decision analysis is applied to resources and flow alternatives presented in the environmental impact statement for Glen Canyon Dam on the Colorado River. A numeric rating and priority-weighting scheme is used to evaluate 29 specific natural resource attributes, grouped into seven main resource objectives, for nine flow alternatives enumerated in the environmental impact statement.

Characterization of return flow pathways during flood irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claes, N.; Paige, G. B.; Parsekian, A.; Gordon, B. L.; Miller, S. N.

2015-12-01

With a decline in water resources available for private consumption and irrigation, the importance of sustainable water management practices is increasing. Local management decisions, based on models may affect the availability of water both locally and downstream, causing a ripple effect. It is therefore important that the models that these local management decisions are based on, accurately quantify local hydrological processes and the timescales at which they happen. We are focusing on return flow from flood irrigation, which can occur via different pathways back to the streams: overland flow, near-surface return flow and return flow via pathways below the vadose zone. The question addressed is how these different pathways each contribute to the total amount of return flow and the dynamics behind them. We used time-lapse ERT measurements in combination with an ensemble of ERT and seismic lines to answer this question via (1) capturing the process of gradual fragmentation of aqueous environments in the vadose zone during drying stages at field scale; (2) characterization of the formation of preferential flow paths from infiltrating wetting fronts during wetting cycles at field scale. The time-lapse ERT provides the possibility to capture the dynamic processes involved during the occurrence of finger flow or macro-pores when an intensive wetting period during flood irrigation occurs. It elucidates the dynamics of retention in the vadose zone during drying and wetting periods at field scale. This method provides thereby a link to upscale from laboratory experiments to field scale and watershed scale for finger flow and preferential flow paths and illustrates the hysteresis behavior at field scale.

A Watershed-scale Design Optimization Model for Stormwater Best Management Practices

EPA Science Inventory

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency developed a decision-support system, System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis Integration (SUSTAIN), to evaluate alternative plans for stormwater quality management and flow abatement techniques in urban and developing areas. SUSTAI...

Municipal solid waste management planning considering greenhouse gas emission trading under fuzzy environment.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Gordon

2014-03-15

Waste management activities can release greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere, intensifying global climate change. Mitigation of the associated GHG emissions is vital and should be considered within integrated municipal solid waste (MSW) management planning. In this study, a fuzzy possibilistic integer programming (FPIM) model has been developed for waste management facility expansion and waste flow allocation planning with consideration of GHG emission trading in an MSW management system. It can address the interrelationships between MSW management planning and GHG emission control. The scenario of total system GHG emission control is analyzed for reflecting the feature that GHG emission credits may be tradable. An interactive solution algorithm is used to solve the FPIM model based on the uncertainty-averse preferences of decision makers in terms of p-necessity level, which represents the certainty degree of the imprecise objective. The FPIM model has been applied to a hypothetical MSW planning problem, where optimal decision schemes for facility expansion and waste flow allocation have been achieved with consideration of GHG emission control. The results indicate that GHG emission credit trading can decrease total system cost through re-allocation of GHG emission credits within the entire MSW management system. This will be helpful for decision makers to effectively determine the allowable GHG emission permits in practices. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

e-Leadership of School Principals: Increasing School Effectiveness by a School Data Management System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blau, Ina; Presser, Ofer

2013-01-01

In recent years, school management systems have become an important tool for effective e-leadership and data-based decision making. School management systems emphasize information flow and e-communication between teachers, students and parents. This study examines e-leadership by secondary-school principals through the Mashov school management…

Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

2009-01-01

Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

Dynamic analysis for solid waste management systems: an inexact multistage integer programming approach.

PubMed

Li, Yongping; Huang, Guohe

2009-03-01

In this study, a dynamic analysis approach based on an inexact multistage integer programming (IMIP) model is developed for supporting municipal solid waste (MSW) management under uncertainty. Techniques of interval-parameter programming and multistage stochastic programming are incorporated within an integer-programming framework. The developed IMIP can deal with uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval numbers, and can reflect the dynamics in terms of decisions for waste-flow allocation and facility-capacity expansion over a multistage context. Moreover, the IMIP can be used for analyzing various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences. The developed method is applied to a case study of long-term waste-management planning. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated for binary and continuous variables. They can help generate desired decisions of system-capacity expansion and waste-flow allocation with a minimized system cost and maximized system reliability.

Are large-scale manipulations of streamflow for ecological outcomes effective either as experiments or management actions? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, C. P.; Olden, J.

2013-12-01

Dams impose a host of impacts on freshwater and estuary ecosystems. In recent decades, dam releases for ecological outcomes have been increasingly implemented to mitigate for these impacts and are gaining global scope. Many are designed and conducted using an experimental framework. A recent review of large-scale flow experiments (FE) evaluates their effectiveness and identifies ways to enhance their scientific and management value. At least 113 large-scale flow experiments affecting 98 river systems globally have been documented over the last 50 years. These experiments span a range of flow manipulations from single pulse events to comprehensive changes in flow regime across all seasons and different water year types. Clear articulation of experimental objectives, while not universally practiced, was crucial for achieving management outcomes and changing dam operating policies. We found a strong disparity between the recognized ecological importance of a multi faceted flow regimes and discrete flow events that characterized 80% of FEs. Over three quarters of FEs documented both abiotic and biotic outcomes, but only one third examined multiple trophic groups, thus limiting how this information informs future dam management. Large-scale flow experiments represent a unique opportunity for integrated biophysical investigations for advancing ecosystem science. Nonetheless, they must remain responsive to site-specific issues regarding water management, evolving societal values and changing environmental conditions and, in particular, can characterize the incremental benefits from and necessary conditions for changing dam operations to improve ecological outcomes. This type of information is essential for understanding the full context of value based trade-offs in benefits and costs from different dam operations that can serve as an empirical basis for societal decisions regarding water and ecosystem management. FE may be the best approach available to managers for resolving critical uncertainties that impede decision making in adaptive settings, for example, when we lack sufficient understanding to model biophysical responses to alternative operations. Integrated long term monitoring of biotic abiotic responses and defining clear management based objectives highlight ways for improving the efficiency and value of FEs.

Don't panic--prepare: towards crisis-aware models of emergency department operations.

PubMed

Ceglowski, Red; Churilov, Leonid; Wasserheil, Jeff

2005-12-01

The existing models of Emergency Department (ED) operations that are based on the "flow-shop" management logic do not provide adequate decision support in dealing with the ED overcrowding crises. A conceptually different crisis-aware approach to ED modelling and operational decision support is introduced in this paper. It is based on Perrow's theory of "normal accidents" and calls for recognizing the inevitable nature of ED overcrowding crises within current health system setup. Managing the crisis before it happens--a standard approach in crisis management area--should become an integral part of ED operations management. The potential implications of adopting such a crisis-aware perspective for health services research and ED management are outlined.

Proposal for adaptive management to conserve biotic integrity in a regulated segment of the Tallapoosa River, Alabama, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Elise R.; Freeman, Mary C.

2002-01-01

Conserving river biota will require innovative approaches that foster and utilize scientific understanding of ecosystem responses to alternative river-management scenarios. We describe ecological and societal issues involved in flow management of a section of the Tallapoosa River (Alabama, U.S.A.) in which a species-rich native fauna is adversely affected by flow alteration by an upstream hydropower dam. We hypothesize that depleted Iow flows, flow instability and thermal alteration resulting from pulsed flow releases at the hydropower dam are most responsible for changes in the Tallapoosa River biota. However, existing data are insufficient to prescribe with certainty minimum flow levels or the frequency and duration of stable flow periods that would be necessary or sufficient to protect riverine biotic integrity. Rather than negotiate a specific change in the flow regime, we propose that stakeholders--including management agencies, the power utility, and river advocates--engage in a process of adaptive-flow management. This process would require that stakeholders (1) develop and agree to management objectives; (2) model hypothesized relations between dam operations and management objectives; (3) implement a change in dam operations; and (4) evaluate biological responses and other stakeholder benefits through an externally reviewed monitoring program. Models would be updated with monitoring data and stakeholders would agree to further modify flow regimes as necessary to achieve management objectives. A primary obstacle to adaptive management will be a perceived uncertainty of future costs for the power utility and other stakeholders. However, an adaptive, iterative approach offers the best opportunity for improving flow regimes for native biota while gaining information critical to guiding management decisions in other flow-regulated rivers.

Interval-parameter semi-infinite fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for environmental management under multiple uncertainties.

PubMed

Guo, P; Huang, G H

2010-03-01

In this study, an interval-parameter semi-infinite fuzzy-chance-constrained mixed-integer linear programming (ISIFCIP) approach is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing interval-parameter semi-infinite programming (ISIP) and fuzzy-chance-constrained programming (FCCP) by incorporating uncertainties expressed as dual uncertainties of functional intervals and multiple uncertainties of distributions with fuzzy-interval admissible probability of violating constraint within a general optimization framework. The binary-variable solutions represent the decisions of waste-management-facility expansion, and the continuous ones are related to decisions of waste-flow allocation. The interval solutions can help decision-makers to obtain multiple decision alternatives, as well as provide bases for further analyses of tradeoffs between waste-management cost and system-failure risk. In the application to the City of Regina, Canada, two scenarios are considered. In Scenario 1, the City's waste-management practices would be based on the existing policy over the next 25 years. The total diversion rate for the residential waste would be approximately 14%. Scenario 2 is associated with a policy for waste minimization and diversion, where 35% diversion of residential waste should be achieved within 15 years, and 50% diversion over 25 years. In this scenario, not only landfill would be expanded, but also CF and MRF would be expanded. Through the scenario analyses, useful decision support for the City's solid-waste managers and decision-makers has been generated. Three special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it is useful for tackling multiple uncertainties expressed as intervals, functional intervals, probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and their combinations; secondly, it has capability in addressing the temporal variations of the functional intervals; thirdly, it can facilitate dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period and multi-option context. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dashboard visualizations: Supporting real-time throughput decision-making.

PubMed

Franklin, Amy; Gantela, Swaroop; Shifarraw, Salsawit; Johnson, Todd R; Robinson, David J; King, Brent R; Mehta, Amit M; Maddow, Charles L; Hoot, Nathan R; Nguyen, Vickie; Rubio, Adriana; Zhang, Jiajie; Okafor, Nnaemeka G

2017-07-01

Providing timely and effective care in the emergency department (ED) requires the management of individual patients as well as the flow and demands of the entire department. Strategic changes to work processes, such as adding a flow coordination nurse or a physician in triage, have demonstrated improvements in throughput times. However, such global strategic changes do not address the real-time, often opportunistic workflow decisions of individual clinicians in the ED. We believe that real-time representation of the status of the entire emergency department and each patient within it through information visualizations will better support clinical decision-making in-the-moment and provide for rapid intervention to improve ED flow. This notion is based on previous work where we found that clinicians' workflow decisions were often based on an in-the-moment local perspective, rather than a global perspective. Here, we discuss the challenges of designing and implementing visualizations for ED through a discussion of the development of our prototype Throughput Dashboard and the potential it holds for supporting real-time decision-making. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Are large-scale flow experiments informing the science and management of freshwater ecosystems?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olden, Julian D.; Konrad, Christopher P.; Melis, Theodore S.; Kennard, Mark J.; Freeman, Mary C.; Mims, Meryl C.; Bray, Erin N.; Gido, Keith B.; Hemphill, Nina P.; Lytle, David A.; McMullen, Laura E.; Pyron, Mark; Robinson, Christopher T.; Schmidt, John C.; Williams, John G.

2013-01-01

Greater scientific knowledge, changing societal values, and legislative mandates have emphasized the importance of implementing large-scale flow experiments (FEs) downstream of dams. We provide the first global assessment of FEs to evaluate their success in advancing science and informing management decisions. Systematic review of 113 FEs across 20 countries revealed that clear articulation of experimental objectives, while not universally practiced, was crucial for achieving management outcomes and changing dam-operating policies. Furthermore, changes to dam operations were three times less likely when FEs were conducted primarily for scientific purposes. Despite the recognized importance of riverine flow regimes, four-fifths of FEs involved only discrete flow events. Over three-quarters of FEs documented both abiotic and biotic outcomes, but only one-third examined multiple taxonomic responses, thus limiting how FE results can inform holistic dam management. Future FEs will present new opportunities to advance scientifically credible water policies.

A pattern-based analysis of clinical computer-interpretable guideline modeling languages.

PubMed

Mulyar, Nataliya; van der Aalst, Wil M P; Peleg, Mor

2007-01-01

Languages used to specify computer-interpretable guidelines (CIGs) differ in their approaches to addressing particular modeling challenges. The main goals of this article are: (1) to examine the expressive power of CIG modeling languages, and (2) to define the differences, from the control-flow perspective, between process languages in workflow management systems and modeling languages used to design clinical guidelines. The pattern-based analysis was applied to guideline modeling languages Asbru, EON, GLIF, and PROforma. We focused on control-flow and left other perspectives out of consideration. We evaluated the selected CIG modeling languages and identified their degree of support of 43 control-flow patterns. We used a set of explicitly defined evaluation criteria to determine whether each pattern is supported directly, indirectly, or not at all. PROforma offers direct support for 22 of 43 patterns, Asbru 20, GLIF 17, and EON 11. All four directly support basic control-flow patterns, cancellation patterns, and some advance branching and synchronization patterns. None support multiple instances patterns. They offer varying levels of support for synchronizing merge patterns and state-based patterns. Some support a few scenarios not covered by the 43 control-flow patterns. CIG modeling languages are remarkably close to traditional workflow languages from the control-flow perspective, but cover many fewer workflow patterns. CIG languages offer some flexibility that supports modeling of complex decisions and provide ways for modeling some decisions not covered by workflow management systems. Workflow management systems may be suitable for clinical guideline applications.

Graphical User Interface Development and Design to Support Airport Runway Configuration Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Debra G.; Lenox, Michelle; Onal, Emrah; Latorella, Kara A.; Lohr, Gary W.; Le Vie, Lisa

2015-01-01

The objective of this effort was to develop a graphical user interface (GUI) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) System Oriented Runway Management (SORM) decision support tool to support runway management. This tool is expected to be used by traffic flow managers and supervisors in the Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) and Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) facilities.

Uncertainty analysis of a groundwater flow model in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Doherty, John E.

2014-01-01

A groundwater flow model for east-central Florida has been developed to help water-resource managers assess the impact of increased groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system on heads and spring flows originating from the Upper Floridan aquifer. The model provides a probabilistic description of predictions of interest to water-resource managers, given the uncertainty associated with system heterogeneity, the large number of input parameters, and a nonunique groundwater flow solution. The uncertainty associated with these predictions can then be considered in decisions with which the model has been designed to assist. The “Null Space Monte Carlo” method is a stochastic probabilistic approach used to generate a suite of several hundred parameter field realizations, each maintaining the model in a calibrated state, and each considered to be hydrogeologically plausible. The results presented herein indicate that the model’s capacity to predict changes in heads or spring flows that originate from increased groundwater withdrawals is considerably greater than its capacity to predict the absolute magnitudes of heads or spring flows. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to make predictions that are similar in location and in type to those in the calibration dataset exceeds its capacity to make predictions of different types at different locations. The quantification of these outcomes allows defensible use of the modeling process in support of future water-resources decisions. The model allows the decision-making process to recognize the uncertainties, and the spatial/temporal variability of uncertainties that are associated with predictions of future system behavior in a complex hydrogeological context.

Uncertainty analysis of a groundwater flow model in East-central Florida.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Doherty, John

2015-01-01

A groundwater flow model for east-central Florida has been developed to help water-resource managers assess the impact of increased groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system on heads and spring flows originating from the Upper Floridan Aquifer. The model provides a probabilistic description of predictions of interest to water-resource managers, given the uncertainty associated with system heterogeneity, the large number of input parameters, and a nonunique groundwater flow solution. The uncertainty associated with these predictions can then be considered in decisions with which the model has been designed to assist. The "Null Space Monte Carlo" method is a stochastic probabilistic approach used to generate a suite of several hundred parameter field realizations, each maintaining the model in a calibrated state, and each considered to be hydrogeologically plausible. The results presented herein indicate that the model's capacity to predict changes in heads or spring flows that originate from increased groundwater withdrawals is considerably greater than its capacity to predict the absolute magnitudes of heads or spring flows. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to make predictions that are similar in location and in type to those in the calibration dataset exceeds its capacity to make predictions of different types at different locations. The quantification of these outcomes allows defensible use of the modeling process in support of future water-resources decisions. The model allows the decision-making process to recognize the uncertainties, and the spatial or temporal variability of uncertainties that are associated with predictions of future system behavior in a complex hydrogeological context. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

Decision support system based on DPSIR framework for a low flow Mediterranean river basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bangash, Rubab Fatima; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta

2013-04-01

The application of decision making practices are effectively enhanced by adopting a procedural approach setting out a general methodological framework within which specific methods, models and tools can be integrated. Integrated Catchment Management is a process that recognizes the river catchment as a basic organizing unit for understanding and managing ecosystem process. Decision support system becomes more complex by considering unavoidable human activities within a catchment that are motivated by multiple and often competing criteria and/or constraints. DPSIR is a causal framework for describing the interactions between society and the environment. This framework has been adopted by the European Environment Agency and the components of this model are: Driving forces, Pressures, States, Impacts and Responses. The proposed decision support system is a two step framework based on DPSIR. Considering first three component of DPSIR, Driving forces, Pressures and States, hydrological and ecosystem services models are developed. The last two components, Impact and Responses, helped to develop Bayesian Network to integrate the models. This decision support system also takes account of social, economic and environmental aspects. A small river of Catalonia (Northeastern Spain), Francoli River with a low flow (~2 m3/s) is selected for integration of catchment assessment models and to improve knowledge transfer from research to the stakeholders with a view to improve decision making process. DHI's MIKE BASIN software is used to evaluate the low-flow Francolí River with respect to the water bodies' characteristics and also to assess the impact of human activities aiming to achieve good water status for all waters to comply with the WFD's River Basin Management Plan. Based on ArcGIS, MIKE BASIN is a versatile decision support tool that provides a simple and powerful framework for managers and stakeholders to address multisectoral allocation and environmental issues in river basins. While InVEST is a spatially explicit tool, used to model and map a suite of ecosystem services caused by land cover changes or climate change impacts. Moreover, results obtained from low-flow hydrological simulation and ecosystem services models serves as useful tools to develop decision support system based on DPSIR framework by integrating models. Bayesian Networks is used as a knowledge integration and visualization tool to summarize the outcomes of hydrological and ecosystem services models at the "Response" stage of DPSIR. Bayesian Networks provide a framework for modelling the logical relationship between catchment variables and decision objectives by quantifying the strength of these relationships using conditional probabilities. Participatory nature of this framework can provide better communication of water research, particularly in the context of a perceived lack of future awareness-raising with the public that helps to develop more sustainable water management strategies. Acknowledgements The present study was financially supported by Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for its financial support through the project SCARCE (Consolider-Ingenio 2010 CSD2009-00065). R. F. Bangash also received PhD fellowship from AGAUR (Commissioner for Universities and Research of the Department of Innovation, Universities and Enterprise of the "Generalitat de Catalunya" and the European Social Fund).

Bioeconomic Approaches to Sustainable Management of Natural Tropical Forests

Treesearch

Tom Holmes; Erin O. Sills

2016-01-01

Bioeconomic models are idealized representations of human-nature interactions used to describe how the decisions that people make regarding the harvest of biological resources affect the future condition of resource stocks and the flow of net economic benefits. This modeling approach posits an assumed goal or objective that a decision-maker seeks to optimize subject to...

Evaluation of Algorithms for a Miles-in-Trail Decision Support Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bloem, Michael; Hattaway, David; Bambos, Nicholas

2012-01-01

Four machine learning algorithms were prototyped and evaluated for use in a proposed decision support tool that would assist air traffic managers as they set Miles-in-Trail restrictions. The tool would display probabilities that each possible Miles-in-Trail value should be used in a given situation. The algorithms were evaluated with an expected Miles-in-Trail cost that assumes traffic managers set restrictions based on the tool-suggested probabilities. Basic Support Vector Machine, random forest, and decision tree algorithms were evaluated, as was a softmax regression algorithm that was modified to explicitly reduce the expected Miles-in-Trail cost. The algorithms were evaluated with data from the summer of 2011 for air traffic flows bound to the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR) over the ARD, PENNS, and SHAFF fixes. The algorithms were provided with 18 input features that describe the weather at EWR, the runway configuration at EWR, the scheduled traffic demand at EWR and the fixes, and other traffic management initiatives in place at EWR. Features describing other traffic management initiatives at EWR and the weather at EWR achieved relatively high information gain scores, indicating that they are the most useful for estimating Miles-in-Trail. In spite of a high variance or over-fitting problem, the decision tree algorithm achieved the lowest expected Miles-in-Trail costs when the algorithms were evaluated using 10-fold cross validation with the summer 2011 data for these air traffic flows.

Optimally managing water resources in large river basins for an uncertain future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul

2014-01-01

One of the challenges of basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing regional economic development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data by using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to substantially reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of the flow-alteration features after the deepening also is demonstrated.

Technical and Management Information System (TMIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rau, Timothy R.

1987-01-01

The TMIS goals developed to support the Space Station Program (SSP) mission requirements are outlined. The TMIS will provide common capabilities to all SSP centers and facilitate the flow of technical and management information throughout the program as well as SSP decision-making processes. A summary is presented of the various TMIS phases.

A Management Information System in a Library Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutton, Michael J.; Black, John B.

More effective use of diminishing resources was needed to provide the best possible services at the University of Guelph (Ontario, Canada) library. This required the improved decision-making processes of a Library Management Information System (LMIS) to provide systematic information analysis. An information flow model was created, and an…

A Flight Deck Decision Support Tool for Autonomous Airborne Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballin, Mark G.; Sharma, Vivek; Vivona, Robert A.; Johnson, Edward J.; Ramiscal, Ermin

2002-01-01

NASA is developing a flight deck decision support tool to support research into autonomous operations in a future distributed air/ground traffic management environment. This interactive real-time decision aid, referred to as the Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP), will enable the flight crew to plan autonomously in the presence of dense traffic and complex flight management constraints. In assisting the flight crew, the AOP accounts for traffic flow management and airspace constraints, schedule requirements, weather hazards, aircraft operational limits, and crew or airline flight-planning goals. This paper describes the AOP and presents an overview of functional and implementation design considerations required for its development. Required AOP functionality is described, its application in autonomous operations research is discussed, and a prototype software architecture for the AOP is presented.

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grabbe, Shon R.; Sridhar, Banavar; Mukherjee, Avijit

2009-01-01

A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis IntegratioN (SUSTAIN)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

SUSTAIN is a decision support system that assists stormwater management professionals with developing and implementing plans for flow and pollution control measures to protect source waters and meet water quality goals.

Superfund Record of Decision (EPA Region 8): California Gulch, Operable Unit 10, Leadville, CO, August 8, 1997

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-01-01

This decision document presents the Selected Remedy for Oregon Gulch OU10 within the California Gulch Superfund Site in Leadville, Colorado. The Selected Remedy includes active management of the seep currently discharging at the toe of the Oregon Gulch Tailing Impoundment during the interim period from implementation until the seep does not negatively impact surface water quality. Active management of the seep discharge will be performed during non-freezing conditions and will include collection and either pumping or transport of the collected flow to the Yak Tunnel Treatment Plant or other suitable treatment options. Design of the Selected Remedy will include amore » drain system at the toe of the embankment to allow the seep discharge to flow unrestricted and to be collected in a controlled manner.« less

Sustainability in Supply Chain Management: Aggregate Planning from Sustainability Perspective.

PubMed

Türkay, Metin; Saraçoğlu, Öztürk; Arslan, Mehmet Can

2016-01-01

Supply chain management that considers the flow of raw materials, products and information has become a focal issue in modern manufacturing and service systems. Supply chain management requires effective use of assets and information that has far reaching implications beyond satisfaction of customer demand, flow of goods, services or capital. Aggregate planning, a fundamental decision model in supply chain management, refers to the determination of production, inventory, capacity and labor usage levels in the medium term. Traditionally standard mathematical programming formulation is used to devise the aggregate plan so as to minimize the total cost of operations. However, this formulation is purely an economic model that does not include sustainability considerations. In this study, we revise the standard aggregate planning formulation to account for additional environmental and social criteria to incorporate triple bottom line consideration of sustainability. We show how these additional criteria can be appended to traditional cost accounting in order to address sustainability in aggregate planning. We analyze the revised models and interpret the results on a case study from real life that would be insightful for decision makers.

Sustainability in Supply Chain Management: Aggregate Planning from Sustainability Perspective

PubMed Central

Türkay, Metin; Saraçoğlu, Öztürk; Arslan, Mehmet Can

2016-01-01

Supply chain management that considers the flow of raw materials, products and information has become a focal issue in modern manufacturing and service systems. Supply chain management requires effective use of assets and information that has far reaching implications beyond satisfaction of customer demand, flow of goods, services or capital. Aggregate planning, a fundamental decision model in supply chain management, refers to the determination of production, inventory, capacity and labor usage levels in the medium term. Traditionally standard mathematical programming formulation is used to devise the aggregate plan so as to minimize the total cost of operations. However, this formulation is purely an economic model that does not include sustainability considerations. In this study, we revise the standard aggregate planning formulation to account for additional environmental and social criteria to incorporate triple bottom line consideration of sustainability. We show how these additional criteria can be appended to traditional cost accounting in order to address sustainability in aggregate planning. We analyze the revised models and interpret the results on a case study from real life that would be insightful for decision makers. PMID:26807848

Multi-objective optimization of solid waste flows: environmentally sustainable strategies for municipalities.

PubMed

Minciardi, Riccardo; Paolucci, Massimo; Robba, Michela; Sacile, Roberto

2008-11-01

An approach to sustainable municipal solid waste (MSW) management is presented, with the aim of supporting the decision on the optimal flows of solid waste sent to landfill, recycling and different types of treatment plants, whose sizes are also decision variables. This problem is modeled with a non-linear, multi-objective formulation. Specifically, four objectives to be minimized have been taken into account, which are related to economic costs, unrecycled waste, sanitary landfill disposal and environmental impact (incinerator emissions). An interactive reference point procedure has been developed to support decision making; these methods are considered appropriate for multi-objective decision problems in environmental applications. In addition, interactive methods are generally preferred by decision makers as they can be directly involved in the various steps of the decision process. Some results deriving from the application of the proposed procedure are presented. The application of the procedure is exemplified by considering the interaction with two different decision makers who are assumed to be in charge of planning the MSW system in the municipality of Genova (Italy).

[Basic research on digital logistic management of hospital].

PubMed

Cao, Hui

2010-05-01

This paper analyzes and explores the possibilities of digital information-based management realized by equipment department, general services department, supply room and other material flow departments in different hospitals in order to optimize the procedures of information-based asset management. There are various analytical methods of medical supplies business models, providing analytical data for correct decisions made by departments and leaders of hospital and the governing authorities.

Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for preventive management of COPD patients.

PubMed

Velickovski, Filip; Ceccaroni, Luigi; Roca, Josep; Burgos, Felip; Galdiz, Juan B; Marina, Nuria; Lluch-Ariet, Magí

2014-11-28

The use of information and communication technologies to manage chronic diseases allows the application of integrated care pathways, and the optimization and standardization of care processes. Decision support tools can assist in the adherence to best-practice medicine in critical decision points during the execution of a care pathway. The objectives are to design, develop, and assess a clinical decision support system (CDSS) offering a suite of services for the early detection and assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which can be easily integrated into a healthcare providers' work-flow. The software architecture model for the CDSS, interoperable clinical-knowledge representation, and inference engine were designed and implemented to form a base CDSS framework. The CDSS functionalities were iteratively developed through requirement-adjustment/development/validation cycles using enterprise-grade software-engineering methodologies and technologies. Within each cycle, clinical-knowledge acquisition was performed by a health-informatics engineer and a clinical-expert team. A suite of decision-support web services for (i) COPD early detection and diagnosis, (ii) spirometry quality-control support, (iii) patient stratification, was deployed in a secured environment on-line. The CDSS diagnostic performance was assessed using a validation set of 323 cases with 90% specificity, and 96% sensitivity. Web services were integrated in existing health information system platforms. Specialized decision support can be offered as a complementary service to existing policies of integrated care for chronic-disease management. The CDSS was able to issue recommendations that have a high degree of accuracy to support COPD case-finding. Integration into healthcare providers' work-flow can be achieved seamlessly through the use of a modular design and service-oriented architecture that connect to existing health information systems.

Clinical Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for preventive management of COPD patients

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The use of information and communication technologies to manage chronic diseases allows the application of integrated care pathways, and the optimization and standardization of care processes. Decision support tools can assist in the adherence to best-practice medicine in critical decision points during the execution of a care pathway. Objectives The objectives are to design, develop, and assess a clinical decision support system (CDSS) offering a suite of services for the early detection and assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which can be easily integrated into a healthcare providers' work-flow. Methods The software architecture model for the CDSS, interoperable clinical-knowledge representation, and inference engine were designed and implemented to form a base CDSS framework. The CDSS functionalities were iteratively developed through requirement-adjustment/development/validation cycles using enterprise-grade software-engineering methodologies and technologies. Within each cycle, clinical-knowledge acquisition was performed by a health-informatics engineer and a clinical-expert team. Results A suite of decision-support web services for (i) COPD early detection and diagnosis, (ii) spirometry quality-control support, (iii) patient stratification, was deployed in a secured environment on-line. The CDSS diagnostic performance was assessed using a validation set of 323 cases with 90% specificity, and 96% sensitivity. Web services were integrated in existing health information system platforms. Conclusions Specialized decision support can be offered as a complementary service to existing policies of integrated care for chronic-disease management. The CDSS was able to issue recommendations that have a high degree of accuracy to support COPD case-finding. Integration into healthcare providers' work-flow can be achieved seamlessly through the use of a modular design and service-oriented architecture that connect to existing health information systems. PMID:25471545

Sensitivity of Regulated Flow Regimes to Climate Change in the Western United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Tian; Voisin, Nathalie; Leng, Guoyong

Water management activities or flow regulations modify water fluxes at the land surface and affect water resources in space and time. We hypothesize that flow regulations change the sensitivity of river flow to climate change with respect to unmanaged water resources. Quantifying these changes in sensitivity could help elucidate the impacts of water management at different spatiotemporal scales and inform climate adaptation decisions. In this study, we compared the emergence of significant changes in natural and regulated river flow regimes across the Western United States from simulations driven by multiple climate models and scenarios. We find that significant climate change-inducedmore » alterations in natural flow do not cascade linearly through water management activities. At the annual time scale, 50% of the Hydrologic Unit Code 4 (HUC4) sub-basins over the Western U.S. regions tend to have regulated flow regime more sensitive to the climate change than natural flow regime. Seasonality analyses show that the sensitivity varies remarkably across the seasons. We also find that the sensitivity is related to the level of water management. For 35% of the HUC4 sub-basins with the highest level of water management, the summer and winter flows tend to show a heightened sensitivity to climate change due to the complexity of joint reservoir operations. We further demonstrate that the impacts of considering water management in models are comparable to those that arises from uncertainties across climate models and emission scenarios. This prompts further climate adaptation studies research about nonlinearity effects of climate change through water management activities.« less

Decision support system for optimally managing water resources to meet multiple objectives in the Savannah River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul

2015-01-01

Managers of large river basins face conflicting demands for water resources such as wildlife habitat, water supply, wastewater assimilative capacity, flood control, hydroelectricity, and recreation. The Savannah River Basin, for example, has experienced three major droughts since 2000 that resulted in record low water levels in its reservoirs, impacting dependent economies for years. The Savannah River estuary contains two municipal water intakes and the ecologically sensitive freshwater tidal marshes of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge. The Port of Savannah is the fourth busiest in the United States, and modifications to the harbor to expand ship traffic since the 1970s have caused saltwater to migrate upstream, reducing the freshwater marsh’s acreage more than 50 percent. A planned deepening of the harbor includes flow-alteration features to minimize further migration of salinity, whose effectiveness will only be known after all construction is completed.One of the challenges of large basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing regional economic development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to substantially reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge, while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of the flow-alteration features after the deepening also is demonstrated.

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement - An Impact-based Decision Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blondin, Debra

2016-04-01

Historically, convection causes the highest number of air traffic constraints on the United States National Air Space (NAS). Increased NAS predictability allows traffic flow managers to more effectively initiate, amend or terminate planned or active traffic management initiatives, resulting in more efficient use of available airspace. A Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) is an impact-based decision support tool used for the timely delivery of high-confidence, high-relevance aviation convective weather forecasts to air traffic managers. The CAWS is a graphical and textual forecast produced by a collaborative team of meteorologists from the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Center Weather Service Units, and airlines to bring attention to high impact areas of thunderstorms. The CAWS addresses thunderstorm initiation or movement into the airports having the highest volume of traffic or into traffic sensitive jet routes. These statements are assessed by planners at the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) Air Route Traffic Control Centers and are used for planning traffic management initiatives to balance air traffic flow across the United States. The FAA and the airline industry use the CAWS to plan, manage, and execute operations in the NAS, thereby improving the system efficiency and safety and also saving dollars for industry and the traveling public.

Application of hydrologic tools and monitoring to support managed aquifer recharge decision making in the Upper San Pedro River, Arizona, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lacher, Laurel J.; Turner, Dale S.; Gungle, Bruce W.; Bushman, Brooke M.; Richter, Holly E.

2014-01-01

The San Pedro River originates in Sonora, Mexico, and flows north through Arizona, USA, to its confluence with the Gila River. The 92-km Upper San Pedro River is characterized by interrupted perennial flow, and serves as a vital wildlife corridor through this semiarid to arid region. Over the past century, groundwater pumping in this bi-national basin has depleted baseflows in the river. In 2007, the United States Geological Survey published the most recent groundwater model of the basin. This model served as the basis for predictive simulations, including maps of stream flow capture due to pumping and of stream flow restoration due to managed aquifer recharge. Simulation results show that ramping up near-stream recharge, as needed, to compensate for downward pumping-related stress on the water table, could sustain baseflows in the Upper San Pedro River at or above 2003 levels until the year 2100 with less than 4.7 million cubic meters per year (MCM/yr). Wet-dry mapping of the river over a period of 15 years developed a body of empirical evidence which, when combined with the simulation tools, provided powerful technical support to decision makers struggling to manage aquifer recharge to support baseflows in the river while also accommodating the economic needs of the basin.

Characteristics of Pregnant Teen Substance Abuse Treatment Admissions

MedlinePlus

... Set (TEDS) is an administrative data system providing descriptive information about the national flow of admissions aged ... Management Decisions, Inc., Arlington, VA; and RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC. Information and data for this ...

Selected low-flow frequency statistics for continuous-record streamgage locations in Maryland, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doheny, Edward J.; Banks, William S.L.

2010-01-01

According to a 2008 report by the Governor's Advisory Committee on the Management and Protection of the State's Water Resources, Maryland's population grew by 35 percent between 1970 and 2000, and is expected to increase by an additional 27 percent between 2000 and 2030. Because domestic water demand generally increases in proportion to population growth, Maryland will be facing increased pressure on water resources over the next 20 years. Water-resources decisions should be based on sound, comprehensive, long-term data and low-flow frequency statistics from all available streamgage locations with unregulated streamflow and adequate record lengths. To provide the Maryland Department of the Environment with tools for making future water-resources decisions, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated a study in October 2009 to compute low-flow frequency statistics for selected streamgage locations in Maryland with 10 or more years of continuous streamflow records. This report presents low-flow frequency statistics for 114 continuous-record streamgage locations in Maryland. The computed statistics presented for each streamgage location include the mean 7-, 14-, and 30-consecutive day minimum daily low-flow dischages for recurrence intervals of 2, 10, and 20 years, and are based on approved streamflow records that include a minimum of 10 complete climatic years of record as of June 2010. Descriptive information for each of these streamgage locations, including the station number, station name, latitude, longitude, county, physiographic province, and drainage area, also is presented. The statistics are planned for incorporation into StreamStats, which is a U.S. Geological Survey Web application for obtaining stream information, and is being used by water-resource managers and decision makers in Maryland to address water-supply planning and management, water-use appropriation and permitting, wastewater and industrial discharge permitting, and setting minimum required streamflows to protect freshwater biota and ecosystems.

The Development of the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (MCTMA): Traffic Flow Management Research in a Multi-Facility Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Katharine K.; Davis, Thomas J.; Levin, Kerry M.; Rowe, Dennis W.

2001-01-01

The Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) is a decision-support tool for traffic managers and air traffic controllers that provides traffic flow visualization and other flow management tools. TMA creates an efficiently sequenced and safely spaced schedule for arrival traffic that meets but does not exceed specified airspace system constraints. TMA is being deployed at selected facilities throughout the National Airspace System in the US as part of the FAA's Free Flight Phase 1 program. TMA development and testing, and its current deployment, focuses on managing the arrival capacity for single major airports within single terminal areas and single en route centers. The next phase of development for this technology is the expansion of the TMA capability to complex facilities in which a terminal area or airport is fed by multiple en route centers, thus creating a multicenter TMA functionality. The focus of the multi-center TMA (McTMA) development is on the busy facilities in the Northeast comdor of the US. This paper describes the planning and development of McTMA and the challenges associated with adapting a successful traffic flow management tool for a very complex airspace.

Large-scale flow experiments for managing river systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.; Olden, Julian D.; Lytle, David A.; Melis, Theodore S.; Schmidt, John C.; Bray, Erin N.; Freeman, Mary C.; Gido, Keith B.; Hemphill, Nina P.; Kennard, Mark J.; McMullen, Laura E.; Mims, Meryl C.; Pyron, Mark; Robinson, Christopher T.; Williams, John G.

2011-01-01

Experimental manipulations of streamflow have been used globally in recent decades to mitigate the impacts of dam operations on river systems. Rivers are challenging subjects for experimentation, because they are open systems that cannot be isolated from their social context. We identify principles to address the challenges of conducting effective large-scale flow experiments. Flow experiments have both scientific and social value when they help to resolve specific questions about the ecological action of flow with a clear nexus to water policies and decisions. Water managers must integrate new information into operating policies for large-scale experiments to be effective. Modeling and monitoring can be integrated with experiments to analyze long-term ecological responses. Experimental design should include spatially extensive observations and well-defined, repeated treatments. Large-scale flow manipulations are only a part of dam operations that affect river systems. Scientists can ensure that experimental manipulations continue to be a valuable approach for the scientifically based management of river systems.

Interregional flows of ecosystem services: Concepts, typology and four cases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schröter, Matthias; Koellner, Thomas; Alkemade, Rob; Arnhold, Sebastian; Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Frank, Karin; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Kastner, Thomas; Kissinger, Meidad; Liu, Jianguo; López-Hoffman, Laura; Maes, Joachim; Marques, Alexandra; Martín-López, Berta; Meyer, Carsten; Schulp, Catharina J. E.; Thober, Jule; Wolff, Sarah; Bonn, Aletta

2018-01-01

Conserving and managing global natural capital requires an understanding of the complexity of flows of ecosystem services across geographic boundaries. Failing to understand and to incorporate these flows into national and international ecosystem assessments leads to incomplete and potentially skewed conclusions, impairing society’s ability to identify sustainable management and policy choices. In this paper, we synthesise existing knowledge and develop a conceptual framework for analysing interregional ecosystem service flows. We synthesise the types of such flows, the characteristics of sending and receiving socio-ecological systems, and the impacts of ecosystem service flows on interregional sustainability. Using four cases (trade of certified coffee, migration of northern pintails, flood protection in the Danube watershed, and information on giant pandas), we test the conceptual framework and show how an enhanced understanding of interregional telecouplings in socio-ecological systems can inform ecosystem service-based decision making and governance with respect to sustainability goals.

Impact of Probabilistic Weather on Flight Routing Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sheth, Kapil; Sridhar, Banavar; Mulfinger, Daniel

2006-01-01

Flight delays in the United States have been found to increase year after year, along with the increase in air traffic. During the four-month period from May through August of 2005, weather related delays accounted for roughly 70% of all reported delays, The current weather prediction in tactical (within 2 hours) timeframe is at manageable levels, however, the state of forecasting weather for strategic (2-6 hours) timeframe is still not dependable for long-term planning. In the absence of reliable severe weather forecasts, the decision-making for flights longer than two hours is challenging. This paper deals with an approach of using probabilistic weather prediction for Traffic Flow Management use, and a general method using this prediction for estimating expected values of flight length and delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). The current state-of-the-art convective weather forecasting is employed to aid the decision makers in arriving at decisions for traffic flow and flight planing. The six-agency effort working on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) have considered weather-assimilated decision-making as one of the principal foci out of a list of eight. The weather Integrated Product Team has considered integrated weather information and improved aviation weather forecasts as two of the main efforts (Ref. 1, 2). Recently, research has focused on the concept of operations for strategic traffic flow management (Ref. 3) and how weather data can be integrated for improved decision-making for efficient traffic management initiatives (Ref. 4, 5). An overview of the weather data needs and benefits of various participants in the air traffic system along with available products can be found in Ref. 6. Previous work related to use of weather data in identifying and categorizing pilot intrusions into severe weather regions (Ref. 7, 8) has demonstrated a need for better forecasting in the strategic planning timeframes and moving towards a probabilistic description of weather (Ref. 9). This paper focuses on. specified probability in a local region for flight intrusion/deviation decision-making. The process uses a probabilistic weather description, implements that in a air traffic assessment system to study trajectories of aircraft crossing a cut-off probability contour. This value would be useful for meteorologists in creating optimum distribution profiles for severe weather, Once available, the expected values of flight path and aggregate delays are calculated for efficient operations. The current research, however, does not deal with the issue of multiple cell encounters, as well as echo tops, and will be a topic of future work.

A new model to improve aggregate air traffic demand predictions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-08-20

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) air traffic flow management (TFM) : decision-making is based primarily on a comparison of predictions of traffic demand and : available capacity at various National Airspace System (NAS) elements such as airports...

An approach to quantify sources, seasonal change, and biogeochemical processes affecting metal loading in streams: Facilitating decisions for remediation of mine drainage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kimball, B.A.; Runkel, R.L.; Walton-Day, K.

2010-01-01

Historical mining has left complex problems in catchments throughout the world. Land managers are faced with making cost-effective plans to remediate mine influences. Remediation plans are facilitated by spatial mass-loading profiles that indicate the locations of metal mass-loading, seasonal changes, and the extent of biogeochemical processes. Field-scale experiments during both low- and high-flow conditions and time-series data over diel cycles illustrate how this can be accomplished. A low-flow experiment provided spatially detailed loading profiles to indicate where loading occurred. For example, SO42 - was principally derived from sources upstream from the study reach, but three principal locations also were important for SO42 - loading within the reach. During high-flow conditions, Lagrangian sampling provided data to interpret seasonal changes and indicated locations where snowmelt runoff flushed metals to the stream. Comparison of metal concentrations between the low- and high-flow experiments indicated substantial increases in metal loading at high flow, but little change in metal concentrations, showing that toxicity at the most downstream sampling site was not substantially greater during snowmelt runoff. During high-flow conditions, a detailed temporal sampling at fixed sites indicated that Zn concentration more than doubled during the diel cycle. Monitoring programs must account for diel variation to provide meaningful results. Mass-loading studies during different flow conditions and detailed time-series over diel cycles provide useful scientific support for stream management decisions.

Transient flow conditions in probabilistic wellhead protection: importance and ways to manage spatial and temporal uncertainty in capture zone delineation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhoefer, R.; Rodriguez-Pretelin, A.; Nowak, W.

2012-12-01

"From an engineering standpoint, the quantification of uncertainty is extremely important not only because it allows estimating risk but mostly because it allows taking optimal decisions in an uncertain framework" (Renard, 2007). The most common way to account for uncertainty in the field of subsurface hydrology and wellhead protection is to randomize spatial parameters, e.g. the log-hydraulic conductivity or porosity. This enables water managers to take robust decisions in delineating wellhead protection zones with rationally chosen safety margins in the spirit of probabilistic risk management. Probabilistic wellhead protection zones are commonly based on steady-state flow fields. However, several past studies showed that transient flow conditions may substantially influence the shape and extent of catchments. Therefore, we believe they should be accounted for in the probabilistic assessment and in the delineation process. The aim of our work is to show the significance of flow transients and to investigate the interplay between spatial uncertainty and flow transients in wellhead protection zone delineation. To this end, we advance our concept of probabilistic capture zone delineation (Enzenhoefer et al., 2012) that works with capture probabilities and other probabilistic criteria for delineation. The extended framework is able to evaluate the time fraction that any point on a map falls within a capture zone. In short, we separate capture probabilities into spatial/statistical and time-related frequencies. This will provide water managers additional information on how to manage a well catchment in the light of possible hazard conditions close to the capture boundary under uncertain and time-variable flow conditions. In order to save computational costs, we take advantage of super-positioned flow components with time-variable coefficients. We assume an instantaneous development of steady-state flow conditions after each temporal change in driving forces, following an idea by Festger and Walter, 2002. These quasi steady-state flow fields are cast into a geostatistical Monte Carlo framework to admit and evaluate the influence of parameter uncertainty on the delineation process. Furthermore, this framework enables conditioning on observed data with any conditioning scheme, such as rejection sampling, Ensemble Kalman Filters, etc. To further reduce the computational load, we use the reverse formulation of advective-dispersive transport. We simulate the reverse transport by particle tracking random walk in order to avoid numerical dispersion to account for well arrival times.

Adaptive Management of Return Flows: Lessons from a Case Study in Environmental Water Delivery to a Floodplain River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfenden, Benjamin J.; Wassens, Skye M.; Jenkins, Kim M.; Baldwin, Darren S.; Kobayashi, Tsuyoshi; Maguire, James

2018-03-01

For many floodplain rivers, reinstating wetland connectivity is necessary for ecosystems to recover from decades of regulation. Environmental return flows (the managed delivery of wetland water to an adjacent river) can be used strategically to facilitate natural ecosystem connectivity, enabling the transfer of nutrients, energy, and biota from wetland habitats to the river. Using an informal adaptive management framework, we delivered return flows from a forested wetland complex into a large lowland river in south-eastern Australia. We hypothesized that return flows would (a) increase river nutrient concentrations; (b) reduce wetland nutrient concentrations; (c) increase rates of ecosystem metabolism through the addition of potentially limiting nutrients, causing related increases in the concentration of water column chlorophyll-a; and (d) increase the density and species richness of microinvertebrates in riverine benthic habitats. Our monitoring results demonstrated a small increase in the concentrations of several key nutrients but no evidence for significant ecological responses was found. Although return flows can be delivered from forested floodplain areas without risking hypoxic blackwater events, returning nutrient and carbon-rich water to increase riverine productivity is limited by the achievable scale of return flows. Nevertheless, using return flows to flush carbon from floodplains may be a useful management tool to reduce carbon loads, preparing floodplains for subsequent releases (e.g., mitigating the risk of hypoxic blackwater events). In this example, adaptive management benefited from a semi-formal collaboration between science and management that allowed for prompt decision-making.

Use of the partial farm budget technique to predict the economic impact of the flock management decision to use B-mode ultrasonographic pregnancy diagnosis.

PubMed

Sprecher, D J; Ley, W B; Whittier, W D; Bowen, J M; Thatcher, C D; Pelzer, K D; Moore, J M

1989-07-15

A computer spreadsheet was developed to predict the economic impact of a management decision to use B-mode ultrasonographic ovine pregnancy diagnosis. The spreadsheet design and spreadsheet cell formulas are provided. The program used the partial farm budget technique to calculate net return (NR) or cash flow changes that resulted from the decision to use ultrasonography. Using the program, either simple pregnancy diagnosis or pregnancy diagnosis with the ability to determine singleton or multiple pregnancies may be compared with no flock ultrasonographic pregnancy diagnosis. A wide range of user-selected regional variables are used to calculate the cash flow changes associated with the ultrasonography decisions. A variable may be altered through a range of values to conduct a sensitivity analysis of predicted NR. Example sensitivity analyses are included for flock conception rate, veterinary ultrasound fee, and the price of corn. Variables that influence the number of cull animals and the cost of ultrasonography have the greatest impact on predicted NR. Because the determination of singleton or multiple pregnancies is more time consuming, its economic practicality in comparison with simple pregnancy diagnosis is questionable. The value of feed saved by identifying and separately feeding ewes with singleton pregnancies is not offset by the increased ultrasonography cost.

Probabilistic prediction of aggregate traffic demand using uncertainty in individual flight predictions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-01

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) air traffic flow management (TFM) : decision-making is based primarily on a comparison of deterministic predictions of demand : and capacity at National Airspace System (NAS) elements such as airports, fixes and ...

Improving conservation of Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris): conceptualization and contributions toward a regional warm-water network management strategy for sustainable winter habitat.

PubMed

Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig

2013-01-01

We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.

Improving Conservation of Florida Manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris): Conceptualization and Contributions Toward a Regional Warm-Water Network Management Strategy for Sustainable Winter Habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flamm, Richard Owen; Reynolds, John Elliot; Harmak, Craig

2013-01-01

We used southwestern Florida as a case study to lay the groundwork for an intended and organized decision-making process for managing warm-water habitat needed by endangered manatees to survive winters in Florida. Scientists and managers have prioritized (a) projecting how the network of warm-water sites will change over the next 50 years as warmed industrial discharges may expire and as flows of natural springs are reduced through redirection of water for human uses, and (b) mitigating such changes to prevent undue consequences to manatees. Given the complexities introduced by manatee ecology; agency organizational structure; shifting public demands; fluctuating resource availability; and managing within interacting cultural, social, political, and environmental contexts, it was clear that a structured decision process was needed. To help promote such a process, we collected information relevant to future decisions including maps of known and suspected warm-water sites and prototyped a characterization of sites and networks. We propose steps that would lead to models that might serve as core tools in manatee/warm-water decision-making, and we summarized topics relevant for informed decision-making (e.g., manatee spatial cognition, risk of cold-stress morbidity and mortality, and human dimensions). A major impetus behind this effort is to ensure proactively that robust modeling tools are available well in advance of the anticipated need for a critical management decision.

Design and rationale of the MR-INFORM study: stress perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging to guide the management of patients with stable coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Hussain, Shazia T; Paul, Matthias; Plein, Sven; McCann, Gerry P; Shah, Ajay M; Marber, Michael S; Chiribiri, Amedeo; Morton, Geraint; Redwood, Simon; MacCarthy, Philip; Schuster, Andreas; Ishida, Masaki; Westwood, Mark A; Perera, Divaka; Nagel, Eike

2012-09-19

In patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD), decisions regarding revascularisation are primarily driven by the severity and extent of coronary luminal stenoses as determined by invasive coronary angiography. More recently, revascularisation decisions based on invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) have shown improved event free survival. Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) perfusion imaging has been shown to be non-inferior to nuclear perfusion imaging in a multi-centre setting and superior in a single centre trial. In addition, it is similar to invasively determined FFR and therefore has the potential to become the non-invasive test of choice to determine need for revascularisation. The MR-INFORM study is a prospective, multi-centre, randomised controlled non-inferiority, outcome trial. The objective is to compare the efficacy of two investigative strategies for the management of patients with suspected CAD. Patients presenting with stable angina are randomised into two groups: 1) The FFR-INFORMED group has subsequent management decisions guided by coronary angiography and fractional flow reserve measurements. 2) The MR-INFORMED group has decisions guided by stress perfusion CMR. The primary end-point will be the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events (death, myocardial infarction and repeat revascularisation) at one year. Clinical trials.gov identifier NCT01236807. MR INFORM will assess whether an initial strategy of CMR perfusion is non-inferior to invasive angiography supplemented by FFR measurements to guide the management of patients with stable coronary artery disease. Non-inferiority of CMR perfusion imaging to the current invasive reference standard (FFR) would establish CMR perfusion imaging as an attractive non-invasive alternative to current diagnostic pathways.

An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Ascough, J.C.; Liu, J.; Luckai, N.; Mailly, D.; Archambault, L.; Gordon, Andrew M.

2011-01-01

The predictions from most forest ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. However, few evaluation exercises for model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers using these models to develop natural resource management policies, as they cannot evaluate the extent to which predictions stemming from the simulation of alternative management scenarios may result in significant environmental or economic differences. Various numerical methods, such as sensitivity/uncertainty analyses, or bootstrap methods, may be used to evaluate models and the errors associated with their outputs. However, the application of each of these methods carries unique challenges which decision makers do not necessarily understand; guidance is required when interpreting the output generated from each model. This paper proposes a decision flow chart in the form of an analytical framework to help decision makers apply, in an orderly fashion, different steps involved in examining the model outputs. The analytical framework is discussed with regard to the definition of problems and objectives and includes the following topics: model selection, identification of alternatives, modelling tasks and selecting alternatives for developing policy or implementing management scenarios. Its application is illustrated using an on-going exercise in developing silvicultural guidelines for a forest management enterprise in Ontario, Canada.

Ecohydrology and Its Relation to Integrated Groundwater Management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Hayashi, Masaki; Batelaan, Okke

2016-01-01

In the twentieth century, groundwater characterization focused primarily on easily measured hydraulic metrics of water storage and flows. Twenty-first century concepts of groundwater availability, however, encompass other factors having societal value, such as ecological well-being. Effective ecohydrological science is a nexus of fundamental understanding derived from two scientific disciplines: (1) ecology, where scale, thresholds, feedbacks and tipping points for societal questions form the basis for the ecologic characterization, and (2) hydrology, where the characteristics, magnitude, and timing of water flows are characterized for a defined system of interest. In addition to ecohydrology itself, integrated groundwater management requires input from resource managers to understand which areas of the vast world of ecohydrology are important for decision making. Expectations of acceptable uncertainty, or even what ecohydrological outputs have utility, are often not well articulated within societal decision making frameworks, or within the science community itself. Similarly, “acceptable levels of impact” are difficult to define. Three examples are given to demonstrate the use of ecohydrological considerations for long-term sustainability of groundwater resources and their related ecosystem function. Such examples illustrate the importance of accommodating ecohydrogeological aspects into integrated groundwater management of the twenty-first century, regardless of society, climate, or setting.

Linking Guidelines to Electronic Health Record Design for Improved Chronic Disease Management

PubMed Central

Barretto, Sistine A.; Warren, Jim; Goodchild, Andrew; Bird, Linda; Heard, Sam; Stumptner, Markus

2003-01-01

The promise of electronic decision support to promote evidence based practice remains elusive in the context of chronic disease management. We examine the problem of achieving a close relationship of Electronic Health Record (EHR) content to other components of a clinical information system (guidelines, decision support and work-flow), particularly linking the decisions made by providers back to the guidelines. We use the openEHR architecture, which allows extension of a core Reference Model via Archetypes to refine the detailed information recording options for specific classes of encounter. We illustrate the use of openEHR for tracking the relationship of a series of clinical encounters to a guideline via a case study of guideline-compliant treatment of hypertension in diabetes. This case study shows the contribution guideline content can have on problem-specific EHR structure and demonstrates the potential for a constructive interaction of electronic decision support and the EHR. PMID:14728135

Fractional flow reserve-guided management in stable coronary disease and acute myocardial infarction: recent developments

PubMed Central

Berry, Colin; Corcoran, David; Hennigan, Barry; Watkins, Stuart; Layland, Jamie; Oldroyd, Keith G.

2015-01-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading global cause of morbidity and mortality, and improvements in the diagnosis and treatment of CAD can reduce the health and economic burden of this condition. Fractional flow reserve (FFR) is an evidence-based diagnostic test of the physiological significance of a coronary artery stenosis. Fractional flow reserve is a pressure-derived index of the maximal achievable myocardial blood flow in the presence of an epicardial coronary stenosis as a ratio to maximum achievable flow if that artery were normal. When compared with standard angiography-guided management, FFR disclosure is impactful on the decision for revascularization and clinical outcomes. In this article, we review recent developments with FFR in patients with stable CAD and recent myocardial infarction. Specifically, we review novel developments in our understanding of CAD pathophysiology, diagnostic applications, prognostic studies, clinical trials, and clinical guidelines. PMID:26038588

Using Cognitive Work Analysis to fit decision support tools to nurse managers' work flow.

PubMed

Effken, Judith A; Brewer, Barbara B; Logue, Melanie D; Gephart, Sheila M; Verran, Joyce A

2011-10-01

To better understand the environmental constraints on nurse managers that impact their need for and use of decision support tools, we conducted a Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA). A complete CWA includes system analyses at five levels: work domain, decision-making procedures, decision-making strategies, social organization/collaboration, and worker skill level. Here we describe the results of the Work Domain Analysis (WDA) portion in detail then integrate the WDA with other portions of the CWA, reported previously, to generate a more complete picture of the nurse manager's work domain. Data for the WDA were obtained from semi-structured interviews with nurse managers, division directors, CNOs, and other managers (n = 20) on 10 patient care units in three Arizona hospitals. The WDA described the nurse manager's environment in terms of the constraints it imposes on the nurse manager's ability to achieve targeted outcomes through organizational goals and priorities, functions, processes, as well as work objects and resources (e.g., people, equipment, technology, and data). Constraints were identified and summarized through qualitative thematic analysis. The results highlight the competing priorities, and external and internal constraints that today's nurse managers must satisfy as they try to improve quality and safety outcomes on their units. Nurse managers receive a great deal of data, much in electronic format. Although dashboards were perceived as helpful because they integrated some data elements, no decision support tools were available to help nurse managers with planning or answering "what if" questions. The results suggest both the need for additional decision support to manage the growing complexity of the environment, and the constraints the environment places on the design of that technology if it is to be effective. Limitations of the study include the small homogeneous sample and the reliance on interview data targeting safety and quality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental and economic assessment methods for waste management decision-support: possibilities and limitations.

PubMed

Finnveden, Göran; Björklund, Anna; Moberg, Asa; Ekvall, Tomas

2007-06-01

A large number of methods and approaches that can be used for supporting waste management decisions at different levels in society have been developed. In this paper an overview of methods is provided and preliminary guidelines for the choice of methods are presented. The methods introduced include: Environmental Impact Assessment, Strategic Environmental Assessment, Life Cycle Assessment, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Cost-effectiveness Analysis, Life-cycle Costing, Risk Assessment, Material Flow Accounting, Substance Flow Analysis, Energy Analysis, Exergy Analysis, Entropy Analysis, Environmental Management Systems, and Environmental Auditing. The characteristics used are the types of impacts included, the objects under study and whether the method is procedural or analytical. The different methods can be described as systems analysis methods. Waste management systems thinking is receiving increasing attention. This is, for example, evidenced by the suggested thematic strategy on waste by the European Commission where life-cycle analysis and life-cycle thinking get prominent positions. Indeed, life-cycle analyses have been shown to provide policy-relevant and consistent results. However, it is also clear that the studies will always be open to criticism since they are simplifications of reality and include uncertainties. This is something all systems analysis methods have in common. Assumptions can be challenged and it may be difficult to generalize from case studies to policies. This suggests that if decisions are going to be made, they are likely to be made on a less than perfect basis.

Review: Regional groundwater flow modeling in heavily irrigated basins of selected states in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossman, Nathan R.; Zlotnik, Vitaly A.

2013-09-01

Water resources in agriculture-dominated basins of the arid western United States are stressed due to long-term impacts from pumping. A review of 88 regional groundwater-flow modeling applications from seven intensively irrigated western states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska and Texas) was conducted to provide hydrogeologists, modelers, water managers, and decision makers insight about past modeling studies that will aid future model development. Groundwater models were classified into three types: resource evaluation models (39 %), which quantify water budgets and act as preliminary models intended to be updated later, or constitute re-calibrations of older models; management/planning models (55 %), used to explore and identify management plans based on the response of the groundwater system to water-development or climate scenarios, sometimes under water-use constraints; and water rights models (7 %), used to make water administration decisions based on model output and to quantify water shortages incurred by water users or climate changes. Results for 27 model characteristics are summarized by state and model type, and important comparisons and contrasts are highlighted. Consideration of modeling uncertainty and the management focus toward sustainability, adaptive management and resilience are discussed, and future modeling recommendations, in light of the reviewed models and other published works, are presented.

Demonstration of the application of traffic management center decision support tools : [summary].

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

Among the most important advances in transportation systems in recent years has been the development and implementation of intelligent transportation systems (ITS), which relies on several means of monitoring traffic flows, coupled with real-time and...

Ecological-economic assessment of the effects of freshwater flow in the Florida Everglades on recreational fisheries.

PubMed

Brown, Christina Estela; Bhat, Mahadev G; Rehage, Jennifer S; Mirchi, Ali; Boucek, Ross; Engel, Victor; Ault, Jerald S; Mozumder, Pallab; Watkins, David; Sukop, Michael

2018-06-15

This research develops an integrated methodology to determine the economic value to anglers of recreational fishery ecosystem services in Everglades National Park that could result from different water management scenarios. The study first used bio-hydrological models to link managed freshwater inflows to indicators of fishery productivity and ecosystem health, then link those models to anglers' willingness-to-pay for various attributes of the recreational fishing experience and monthly fishing effort. This approach allowed us to estimate the foregone economic benefits of failing to meet monthly freshwater delivery targets. The study found that the managed freshwater delivery to the Park had declined substantially over the years and had fallen short of management targets. This shortage in the flow resulted in the decline of biological productivity of recreational fisheries in downstream coastal areas. This decline had in turn contributed to reductions in the overall economic value of recreational ecosystem services enjoyed by anglers. The study estimated the annual value of lost recreational services at $68.81 million. The losses were greater in the months of dry season when the water shortage was higher and the number of anglers fishing also was higher than the levels in wet season. The study also developed conservative estimates of implicit price of water for recreation, which ranged from $11.88 per AF in November to $112.11 per AF in April. The annual average price was $41.54 per AF. Linking anglers' recreational preference directly to a decision variable such as water delivery is a powerful and effective way to make management decision. This methodology has relevant applications to water resource management, serving as useful decision-support metrics, as well as for policy and restoration scenario analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Data Mining for Understanding and Impriving Decision-Making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao Xun; Sridhar, Banavar

2013-01-01

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions. The work reported in this paper is focused on ground delay programs. Data mining algorithms have the potential to develop associations between weather patterns and the corresponding ground delay program responses. If successful, they can be used to improve and standardize TFM decision resulting in better predictability of traffic flows on days with reliable weather forecasts. The approach here seeks to develop a set of data mining and machine learning models and apply them to historical archives of weather observations and forecasts and TFM initiatives to determine the extent to which the theory can predict and explain the observed traffic flow behaviors.

AQUATOOL, a generalized decision-support system for water-resources planning and operational management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu, J.; Capilla, J.; Sanchís, E.

1996-04-01

This paper describes a generic decision-support system (DSS) which was originally designed for the planning stage of dicision-making associated with complex river basins. Subsequently, it was expanded to incorporate modules relating to the operational stage of decision-making. Computer-assisted design modules allow any complex water-resource system to be represented in graphical form, giving access to geographically referenced databases and knowledge bases. The modelling capability includes basin simulation and optimization modules, an aquifer flow modelling module and two modules for risk assessment. The Segura and Tagus river basins have been used as case studies in the development and validation phases. The value of this DSS is demonstrated by the fact that both River Basin Agencies currently use a version for the efficient management of their water resources.

Innovation in monitoring: The U.S. Geological Survey Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta, California, flow-station network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burau, Jon; Ruhl, Cathy; Work, Paul A.

2016-01-29

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) installed the first gage to measure the flow of water into California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta from the Sacramento River in the late 1800s. Today, a network of 35 hydro-acoustic meters measure flow throughout the delta. This region is a critical part of California’s freshwater supply and conveyance system. With the data provided by this flow-station network—sampled every 15 minutes and updated to the web every hour—state and federal water managers make daily decisions about how much freshwater can be pumped for human use, at which locations, and when. Fish and wildlife scientists, working with water managers, also use this information to protect fish species affected by pumping and loss of habitat. The data are also used to help determine the success or failure of efforts to restore ecosystem processes in what has been called the “most managed and highly altered” watershed in the country.

The Case for Case-Mix: A New Construct for Hospital Management

PubMed Central

Plomann, Marilyn Peacock; Garzino, Fred R.

1981-01-01

Case-mix is a useful methodology for health care management, planning and control. It provides managers with a powerful tool by providing a framework for relating resource consumption profiles with specific treatment patterns. In the long run, it will assist hospital planners in analyzing the demands which different classes of patients bring to the hospital. Decisions concerning capital financing, facilities planning, new services, and the medical and financial implications of physician activities are more efficiently analyzed within a case-mix framework. In the near term, inventory management, staffing policies and the on-going need for the astute management of cash flow will be postively and decisively affected by the use of case-mix measures. The benefits derived from a case-mix system are not limited to hospitals possessing sophisticated management information systems. The case-mix methodology also provides a useful tool for hospitals with less advanced data processing systems and management practices in applying a variety of management science techniques to their planning and control activities.

Re-Construction of Reference Population and Generating Weights by Decision Tree

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-21

2017 Claflin University Orangeburg, SC 29115 DEFENSE EQUAL OPPORTUNITY MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND STRATEGIC...Original Dataset 32 List of Figures in Appendix B Figure 1: Flow and Components of Project 20 Figure 2: Decision Tree 31 Figure 3: Effects of Weight...can compare the sample data. The dataset of this project has the reference population on unit level for group and gender, which is in red-dotted box

A Management Information System Model for Program Management. Ph.D. Thesis - Oklahoma State Univ.; [Computerized Systems Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shipman, D. L.

1972-01-01

The development of a model to simulate the information system of a program management type of organization is reported. The model statistically determines the following parameters: type of messages, destinations, delivery durations, type processing, processing durations, communication channels, outgoing messages, and priorites. The total management information system of the program management organization is considered, including formal and informal information flows and both facilities and equipment. The model is written in General Purpose System Simulation 2 computer programming language for use on the Univac 1108, Executive 8 computer. The model is simulated on a daily basis and collects queue and resource utilization statistics for each decision point. The statistics are then used by management to evaluate proposed resource allocations, to evaluate proposed changes to the system, and to identify potential problem areas. The model employs both empirical and theoretical distributions which are adjusted to simulate the information flow being studied.

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

PubMed Central

Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

2013-01-01

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

A framework for developing and integrating effective routing strategies within the emergency management decision-support system.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-05-01

This report describes the modeling, calibration, and validation of a VISSIM traffic-flow simulation of the San Jos, California, downtown network and examines various evacuation scenarios and first-responder routings to assess strategies that would ...

RTO Technical Publications: A Quarterly Listing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

This is a listing of recent unclassified RTO technical publications processed by the NASA Center for AeroSpace Information from Jan 1, 2002 through Mar 31, 2002. Topics covered included information management, ice accretion, digital flight control systems, supercavitation flows, and tactical decision aids.

Biomarkers: Dynamic "Tools" for Health and Safety Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Today informational flow from biomarkers contributes importantly to various types of health effects research, risk assessment and risk management decisions that impact, or have the potential to impact, public health and safety. Therefore, dependent upon the nature of the health r...

An Agent-Based Model of Private Woodland Owner Management Behavior Using Social Interactions, Information Flow, and Peer-To-Peer Networks

PubMed Central

Huff, Emily Silver; Leahy, Jessica E.; Hiebeler, David; Weiskittel, Aaron R.; Noblet, Caroline L.

2015-01-01

Privately owned woodlands are an important source of timber and ecosystem services in North America and worldwide. Impacts of management on these ecosystems and timber supply from these woodlands are difficult to estimate because complex behavioral theory informs the owner’s management decisions. The decision-making environment consists of exogenous market factors, internal cognitive processes, and social interactions with fellow landowners, foresters, and other rural community members. This study seeks to understand how social interactions, information flow, and peer-to-peer networks influence timber harvesting behavior using an agent-based model. This theoretical model includes forested polygons in various states of ‘harvest readiness’ and three types of agents: forest landowners, foresters, and peer leaders (individuals trained in conservation who use peer-to-peer networking). Agent rules, interactions, and characteristics were parameterized with values from existing literature and an empirical survey of forest landowner attitudes, intentions, and demographics. The model demonstrates that as trust in foresters and peer leaders increases, the percentage of the forest that is harvested sustainably increases. Furthermore, peer leaders can serve to increase landowner trust in foresters. Model output and equations will inform forest policy and extension/outreach efforts. The model also serves as an important testing ground for new theories of landowner decision making and behavior. PMID:26562429

WindWizard: A New Tool for Fire Management Decision Support

Treesearch

Bret W. Butler; Mark Finney; Larry Bradshaw; Jason Forthofer; Chuck McHugh; Rick Stratton; Dan Jimenez

2006-01-01

A new software tool has been developed to simulate surface wind speed and direction at the 100m to 300 m scale. This tool is useful when trying to estimate fire behavior in mountainous terrain. It is based on widely used computational fluid dynamics technology and has been tested against measured wind flows. In recent years it has been used to support fire management...

Opportunities for Launch Site Integrated System Health Engineering and Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waterman, Robert D.; Langwost, Patricia E.; Waterman, Susan J.

2005-01-01

The launch site processing flow involves operations such as functional verification, preflight servicing and launch. These operations often include hazards that must be controlled to protect human life and critical space hardware assets. Existing command and control capabilities are limited to simple limit checking durig automated monitoring. Contingency actions are highly dependent on human recognition, decision making, and execution. Many opportunities for Integrated System Health Engineering and Management (ISHEM) exist throughout the processing flow. This paper will present the current human-centered approach to health management as performed today for the shuttle and space station programs. In addition, it will address some of the more critical ISHEM needs, and provide recommendations for future implementation of ISHEM at the launch site.

Capacity, pressure, demand, and flow: A conceptual framework for analyzing ecosystem service provision and delivery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villamagna, Amy M.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Bennett, Elena M.

2013-01-01

Ecosystem services provide an instinctive way to understand the trade-offs associated with natural resource management. However, despite their apparent usefulness, several hurdles have prevented ecosystem services from becoming deeply embedded in environmental decision-making. Ecosystem service studies vary widely in focal services, geographic extent, and in methods for defining and measuring services. Dissent among scientists on basic terminology and approaches to evaluating ecosystem services create difficulties for those trying to incorporate ecosystem services into decision-making. To facilitate clearer comparison among recent studies, we provide a synthesis of common terminology and explain a rationale and framework for distinguishing among the components of ecosystem service delivery, including: an ecosystem's capacity to produce services; ecological pressures that interfere with an ecosystem's ability to provide the service; societal demand for the service; and flow of the service to people. We discuss how interpretation and measurement of these four components can differ among provisioning, regulating, and cultural services. Our flexible framework treats service capacity, ecological pressure, demand, and flow as separate but interactive entities to improve our ability to evaluate the sustainability of service provision and to help guide management decisions. We consider ecosystem service provision to be sustainable when demand is met without decreasing capacity for future provision of that service or causing undesirable declines in other services. When ecosystem service demand exceeds ecosystem capacity to provide services, society can choose to enhance natural capacity, decrease demand and/or ecological pressure, or invest in a technological substitute. Because regulating services are frequently overlooked in environmental assessments, we provide a more detailed examination of regulating services and propose a novel method for quantifying the flow of regulating services based on estimates of ecological work. We anticipate that our synthesis and framework will reduce inconsistency and facilitate coherence across analyses of ecosystem services, thereby increasing their utility in environmental decision-making.

MILSTAMP: Military Standard Transportation and Movement Procedures. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-03-15

paragraphs changed. As it is a part of the regulation, the register will serve as a permanent, easily traceable record of all DoD transactions which affect ...resulting from political decisions, natural disasters, strikes, local or national regulatory action, or other actions which may affect normal traffic flow...regulatory action, or other actions which may affect normal traffic flow. (13) Evaluates carrier performance. 3. CONUS Airlift Managers a. The AFLC: (1

Governance and decision making in complex socio-hydrological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard; Gober, Patricia; Hassanzadeh, Elmira

2017-04-01

The transboundary Saskatchewan River, originating in the Canadian Rockies in Alberta, flows through Saskatchewan and Manitoba and discharges its water into Lake Winnipeg. It supports irrigated agriculture, hydropower generation, flood protection, municipal water supplies, mining, recreation, and environmental services across a large area and in multiple administrative jurisdictions. Managing the region's water-based economic activities and environmental services, requires decisions at a variety of scales to incorporate competing values and priorities about water use. Current inter-provincial allocations are based on the 1969 Master Agreement of Water Apportionment whereby upstream Alberta must release one-half of the annual natural flows of the Saskatchewan River to Saskatchewan, which in turn must pass one-half of the residual natural flow to the Province of Manitoba. This analysis uses a hydro-economic simulation model, SWAMP, to examine risk-based tradeoffs in Saskatchewan for various types of water use including, agriculture, energy, and flood protection under various scenarios of water availability. The eco-hydrological effects of the scenarios on the largest inland delta in North America - the Saskatchewan River Delta - are also shown. Results enable decision makers to weigh the costs and benefits of implementing particular sector-based future development strategies. Assuming net provincial benefit as a single monetary indicator of economic value, the effects of various scenarios of environmental and policy changes are quantified Results show that improving irrigation technology and expanding irrigated lands in Alberta will positively affect the province's economic development and have compound effects downstream on hydropower generation, environmental flows and the economies of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The implementation of similar policies in Saskatchewan will have different downstream impacts because of the large hydro-power capacity downstream in Manitoba. The model highlights the spatial tradeoffs across the three provinces and sectoral trade-offs among the differing water uses. These trade-offs represent challenging dilemmas for water management decisions in a complex system. The study reveals the need for a holistic framework of water resources analysis that can dynamically capture the feedback loops among hydrological, social, and administrative/political analysis units to support public discussion of critical water tradeoffs and a consensual water value framework to guide future development decisions.

Acquisition Program Transition Workshops: An Element of the DSMC Program Manager Mission Assistance Capability

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

specific modules as needed. The term “startup” is inclusive of any point in a DoD acquisition program. As noted above, methodology for conducting...Acquisition Sustainment =Decision Point =Milestone Review =Decision Point if PDR is not conducted before Milestone B ProgramA B Initiation) C IOC FOC...start a new program 2.2 Background Conclusions flowing from these observations led the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the De - fense Acquisition

A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2013-12-01

Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the probability distribution of the projected flow ensembles enables the selection of appropriate decision options. This process is repeated for each year of the planning horizon--resulting in system outcomes that can be evaluated on their performance and resiliency. The research utilizes the RiverSMART suite of software modeling and analysis tools developed under the Bureau of Reclamation's WaterSMART initiative and built around the RiverWare modeling environment. A case study is developed for the Gunnison and Upper Colorado River Basins. The ability to mitigate vulnerability using the framework is gauged by system performance indicators that measure the ability of the system to meet various water demands (i.e. agriculture, environmental flows, hydropower etc.). Options and strategies for addressing vulnerabilities include measures such as conservation, reallocation and adjustments to operational policy. In addition to being able to mitigate vulnerabilities, options and strategies are evaluated based on benefits, costs and reliability. Flow ensembles are also simulated to incorporate mean and variance from climate change projections for the planning horizon and the above robust decision-making framework is applied to evaluate its performance under changing climate.

Laboratory administration--capital budgeting.

PubMed

Butros, F

1997-01-01

The process of capital budgeting varies among different health-care institutions. Understanding the concept of present value of money, incremental cash flow statements, and the basic budgeting techniques will enable the laboratory manager to make the rational and logical decisions that are needed in today's competitive health-care environment.

Data Mining for Understanding and Improving Decision-making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

2013-01-01

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions.

An inventory-theory-based interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suo, M. Q.; Li, Y. P.; Huang, G. H.

2011-09-01

In this study, an inventory-theory-based interval-parameter two-stage stochastic programming (IB-ITSP) model is proposed through integrating inventory theory into an interval-parameter two-stage stochastic optimization framework. This method can not only address system uncertainties with complex presentation but also reflect transferring batch (the transferring quantity at once) and period (the corresponding cycle time) in decision making problems. A case of water allocation problems in water resources management planning is studied to demonstrate the applicability of this method. Under different flow levels, different transferring measures are generated by this method when the promised water cannot be met. Moreover, interval solutions associated with different transferring costs also have been provided. They can be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help water resources managers to identify desired policies. Compared with the ITSP method, the IB-ITSP model can provide a positive measure for solving water shortage problems and afford useful information for decision makers under uncertainty.

System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shropshire, D.E.

1997-10-01

A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs,more » or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years.« less

Measuring, managing and maximizing refinery performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bascur, O.A.; Kennedy, J.P.

1996-01-01

Implementing continuous quality improvement is a confluence of total quality management, people empowerment, performance indicators and information engineering. Supporting information technologies allow a refiner to narrow the gap between management objectives and the process control level. Dynamic performance monitoring benefits come from production cost savings, improved communications and enhanced decision making. A refinery workgroup information flow model helps automate continuous improvement of processes, performance and the organization. The paper discusses the rethinking of refinery operations, dynamic performance monitoring, continuous process improvement, the knowledge coordinator and repository manager, an integrated plant operations workflow, and successful implementation.

Including spatial data in nutrient balance modelling on dairy farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Leeuwen, Maricke; van Middelaar, Corina; Stoof, Cathelijne; Oenema, Jouke; Stoorvogel, Jetse; de Boer, Imke

2017-04-01

The Annual Nutrient Cycle Assessment (ANCA) calculates the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) balance at a dairy farm, while taking into account the subsequent nutrient cycles of the herd, manure, soil and crop components. Since January 2016, Dutch dairy farmers are required to use ANCA in order to increase understanding of nutrient flows and to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. A nutrient balance calculates the difference between nutrient inputs and outputs. Nutrients enter the farm via purchased feed, fertilizers, deposition and fixation by legumes (nitrogen), and leave the farm via milk, livestock, manure, and roughages. A positive balance indicates to which extent N and/or P are lost to the environment via gaseous emissions (N), leaching, run-off and accumulation in soil. A negative balance indicates that N and/or P are depleted from soil. ANCA was designed to calculate average nutrient flows on farm level (for the herd, manure, soil and crop components). ANCA was not designed to perform calculations of nutrient flows at the field level, as it uses averaged nutrient inputs and outputs across all fields, and it does not include field specific soil characteristics. Land management decisions, however, such as the level of N and P application, are typically taken at the field level given the specific crop and soil characteristics. Therefore the information that ANCA provides is likely not sufficient to support farmers' decisions on land management to minimize nutrient losses to the environment. This is particularly a problem when land management and soils vary between fields. For an accurate estimate of nutrient flows in a given farming system that can be used to optimize land management, the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs (and thus the effect of land management and soil variation) could be essential. Our aim was to determine the effect of the spatial scale of nutrient inputs and outputs on modelled nutrient flows and nutrient use efficiencies at Dutch dairy farms. We selected two dairy farms located on cover sands in the Netherlands. One farm was located on relatively homogeneous soil type, and one on many different soil types within the sandy soils. A full year of data of N and P inputs and outputs on farm and field level were provided by the farmers, including field level yields, yield composition, manure composition, degree of grazing and degree of mowing. Soil heterogeneity was defined as the number of soil units within the farm corrected for surface area, and quantified from the Dutch 1:50.000 soil map. N and P balances at farm and field level were determined, as well as differences in nutrient use efficiency, leaching, and N emission. We will present the effect of the spatial scale on nutrient balance analysis and discuss to which degree any differences are caused by within-farm land management and soil variation. This study highlights to which extent within-farm land management and soil variation should be taken into account when modelling nutrient flows and nutrient use efficiencies at farm level, to contribute to field-based decision making for improved land management.

Mega drought in the Colorado River Basin, water supply, and adaptive scenario planning for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area; simulations using WaterSim 5.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, D. A.

2015-12-01

The Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC), a boundary organization, bridges science and policy (to foster knowledge-based decision making); we study how decisions are made in the face of uncertainty. Our water policy and management model for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (hereafter "Phoenix"), termed WaterSim, represents one such bridging mechanism. We evaluated the effect of varying the length of drought on water availability for Phoenix. We examined droughts (starting in 2000) lasting 15, 25, and 50 years. We picked a 60-year window of runoff estimates from the paleo reconstruction data for the Colorado River (CO) (1121 through 1180 A.D.), and the two local rivers (1391 through 1450 A.D.), and assumed that the proportional difference in median flow between these periods and the long-term record represented an estimate of potential drought reductions on river flows. This resulted in a 12%, and 19% reduction in flows for the CO River and the Salt-Verde (SV) Rivers, respectively. WaterSim uses 30-year trace periods from the historical flow records to simulate river flow for future projections. We used each 30-year trace from the historical record (1906 to present, CO River; 1945 to present SV Rivers) , and default settings, to simulate 60 year projections of Lake Mead elevation and the accompanying Colorado River water shortages to Phoenix. Overall, elevations for Lake Mead fell below the 1st shortage sharing tier (1075 ft) in 83% of the simulations; 74% of the simulations fell below the 2nd tier (1050 ft), and 64% fell below the 3rd (1025 ft). Length of drought, however, determined the shortage tiers met. Median elevations for droughts ending in 2015, 2025, and 2050 were 1036, 1019, and 967 feet msl, respectively. We present the plausible water futures with adaptive anticipatory scenario planning for the projected reductions in surface water availability to demonstrate decision points for water conservation measures to effectively manage shortage conditions.

A multi-agent system for monitoring patient flow.

PubMed

Rosati, Samanta; Tralli, Augusta; Balestra, Gabriella

2013-01-01

Patient flow within a healthcare facility may follow different and, sometimes, complicated paths. Each path phase is associated with the documentation of the activities carried out during it and may require the consultation of clinical guidelines, medical literature and the use of specific software and decision aid systems. In this study we present the design of a Patient Flow Management System (PFMS) based on Multi Agent Systems (MAS) methodology. System requirements were identified by means of process modeling tools and a MAS consisting of six agents was designed and is under construction. Its main goal is to support both the medical staff during the health care process and the hospital managers in assuring that all the required documentation is completed and available. Moreover, such a tool can be used for the assessment and comparison of different clinical pathways, in order to identify possible improvementsand the optimum patient flow.

GeoProMT: A Collaborative Platform Supporting Natural Hazards Project Management From Assessment to Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renschler, C.; Sheridan, M. F.; Patra, A. K.

2008-05-01

The impact and consequences of extreme geophysical events (hurricanes, floods, wildfires, volcanic flows, mudflows, etc.) on properties and processes should be continuously assessed by a well-coordinated interdisciplinary research and outreach approach addressing risk assessment and resilience. Communication between various involved disciplines and stakeholders is the key to a successful implementation of an integrated risk management plan. These issues become apparent at the level of decision support tools for extreme events/disaster management in natural and managed environments. The Geospatial Project Management Tool (GeoProMT) is a collaborative platform for research and training to document and communicate the fundamental steps in transforming information for extreme events at various scales for analysis and management. GeoProMT is an internet-based interface for the management of shared geo-spatial and multi-temporal information such as measurements, remotely sensed images, and other GIS data. This tool enhances collaborative research activities and the ability to assimilate data from diverse sources by integrating information management. This facilitates a better understanding of natural processes and enhances the integrated assessment of resilience against both the slow and fast onset of hazard risks. Fundamental to understanding and communicating complex natural processes are: (a) representation of spatiotemporal variability, extremes, and uncertainty of environmental properties and processes in the digital domain, (b) transformation of their spatiotemporal representation across scales (e.g. interpolation, aggregation, disaggregation.) during data processing and modeling in the digital domain, and designing and developing tools for (c) geo-spatial data management, and (d) geo-spatial process modeling and effective implementation, and (e) supporting decision- and policy-making in natural resources and hazard management at various spatial and temporal scales of interest. GeoProMT is useful for researchers, practitioners, and decision-makers, because it provides an integrated environmental system assessment and data management approach that considers the spatial and temporal scales and variability in natural processes. Particularly in the occurrence or onset of extreme events it can utilize the latest data sources that are available at variable scales, combine them with existing information, and update assessment products such as risk and vulnerability assessment maps. Because integrated geo-spatial assessment requires careful consideration of all the steps in utilizing data, modeling and decision-making formats, each step in the sequence must be assessed in terms of how information is being scaled. At the process scale various geophysical models (e.g. TITAN, LAHARZ, or many other examples) are appropriate for incorporation in the tool. Some examples that illustrate our approach include: 1) coastal parishes impacted by Hurricane Rita (Southwestern Louisiana), 2) a watershed affected by extreme rainfall induced debris-flows (Madison County, Virginia; Panabaj, Guatemala; Casita, Nicaragua), and 3) the potential for pyroclastic flows to threaten a city (Tungurahua, Ecuador). This research was supported by the National Science Foundation.

Framing scenarios of binational water policy with a tool to visualize, quantify and valuate changes in ecosystem services

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norman, Laura M.; Villarreal, Miguel L.; Niraula, Rewati; Meixner, Thomas; Frisvold, George; Labiosa, William

2013-01-01

In the Santa Cruz Watershed, located on the Arizona-Sonora portion of the U.S.-Mexico border, an international wastewater treatment plant treats wastewater from cities on both sides of the border, before discharging it into the river in Arizona. These artificial flows often subsidize important perennial surface water ecosystems in the region. An explicit understanding of the benefits of maintaining instream flow for present and future generations requires the ability to assess and understand the important trade-offs implicit in water-resource management decisions. In this paper, we outline an approach for modeling and visualizing impacts of management decisions in terms of rare terrestrial and aquatic wildlife, vegetation, surface water, groundwater recharge, real-estate values and socio-environmental vulnerable communities. We identify and quantify ecosystem services and model the potential reduction in effluent discharge to the U.S. that is under scrutiny by binational water policy makers and of concern to stakeholders. Results of service provisioning are presented, and implications for policy makers and resource managers are discussed. This paper presents a robust ecosystem services assessment of multiple scenarios of watershed management as a means to discern eco-hydrological responses and consider their potential values for future generations living in the borderlands.

Municipal solid waste system analysis through energy consumption and return approach.

PubMed

Tomić, Tihomir; Schneider, Daniel Rolph

2017-12-01

Inappropriate waste management and poor resource efficiency are two of the biggest problems which European Union is trying to solve through Landfill Directive, Waste Framework Directive and Circular Economy Package by increasing recycling and reuse and reducing waste disposal. In order to meet set goals, new European Union member states must quickly change national legislature and implement appropriate solutions. In the circumstances of strong EU resource and energy dependence, decision makers need to analyse which of the considered waste management systems leads to higher overall benefits ie. which is more sustainable. The main problem in this kind of analysis is a wide range of possible technologies and the difference in inputs and outputs. Sustainability of these systems is analysed through single-score LCA based assessment, using primary energy used to produce materials and energy vectors as a common measure. To ensure reliable results, interoperability between different data sources and material flows of waste and its components are monitored. Tracking external and internal material, and energy flows enable modelling of mutual interactions between different facilities. Resulting PERI, primary energy return based index, is used for comparison of different waste management scenarios. Results show that time and legislation dependent changes have great influence on decision making related to waste management and interconnected systems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How much water flows? Examining water allocations using a mobile decision lab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strickert, G. E.; Gober, P.; Bradford, L. E.; Phillips, P.; Ross, J.

2016-12-01

Management of freshwater resources is a complex and multifaceted issues. Big challenges like scarcity, conflicts over water use and access, and ecosystem degradation are widespread around the world. These issues reflects ineffective past practices and signals the need for a fundamental change. Previous actions to mitigate these problems have been incremental rather than innovative, in part because of inherent conservatism in the water management community and an inability to experiment with water allocations in a safe environment. The influence of transboundary water policies was tested using a mobile decision lab which examined three theory areas: limited territorial sovereignty, absolute territorial sovereignty, and shared risk. The experiment allowed people engaged in the water sector to allocate incoming flows to different sectors: agriculture, municipal, industrial and environmental flows in two flow scenarios; slight shortage and extreme water shortage, and to pass on the remaining water to downstream regions. Mandatory sharing 50% of the natural flows between provinces (i.e. limited territorial sovereignty) achieved the most equitable allocation based on water units and points across the three regions. When there were no allocation rules (i.e. absolute territorial sovereignty) the downstream region received significantly less water (e.g. 8-11%. p < 0.001) less water to fulfill its demand. Allowing communication between up and down stream regions (i.e. shared risk) had a negligible affect on the amount of water flowing through the region. It is also notable that most participants sought a trade-off of water allocations, minimizing the allocations to agriculture and industry and prioritizing the municipal sector particularity under the severe drought scenario.

Corps Water Management System (CWMS) Decision Support Modeling and Integration Use in the June 2007 Texas Floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charley, W. J.; Luna, M.

2007-12-01

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Corps Water Management System (CWMS) is a comprehensive data acquisition and hydrologic modeling system for short-term decision support of water control operations in real time. It encompasses data collection, validation and transformation, data storage, visualization, real time model simulation for decision-making support, and data dissemination. CWMS uses an Oracle database and Sun Solaris workstations for data processes, storage and the execution of models, with a client application (the Control and Visualization Interface, or CAVI) that can run on a Windows PC. CWMS was used by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) to make hydrologic forecasts of flows on the Lower Colorado River and operate reservoirs during the June 2007 event in Texas. The LCRA receives real-time observed gridded spatial rainfall data from OneRain, Inc. that which is a result of adjusting NexRad rainfall data with precipitation gages. This data is used, along with future precipitation estimates, for hydrologic forecasting by the rainfall-runoff modeling program HEC-HMS. Forecasted flows from HEC-HMS and combined with observed flows and reservoir information to simulate LCRA's reservoir operations and help engineers make release decisions based on the results. The river hydraulics program, HEC-RAS, computes river stages and water surface profiles for the computed flow. An inundation boundary and depth map of water in the flood plain can be calculated from the HEC-RAS results using ArcInfo. By varying future precipitation and releases, engineers can evaluate different "What if?" scenarios. What was described as an "extraordinary cluster of thunderstorms" that stalled over Burnet and Llano counties in Texas on June 27, 2007, dropped 17 to 19 inches of rainfall over a 6-hour period. The storm was classified over a 500-year event and the resulting flow over some of the smaller tributaries as a 100-year or better. CWMS was used by LCRA for flood forecasting and reservoir operations. The models accurately forecasting the flows and allowed engineers to determine that only four floodgates needed to be opened for Mansfield dam, in the Chain of Highland lakes. CWMS also forecasted the peak of the flood well before it happened. Smaller rain storms continued for a period of weeks and CWMS was used throughout the event calculating lake levels, closing of gates along with a hydro-generation schedule.

Valuing flexibilities in the design of urban water management systems.

PubMed

Deng, Yinghan; Cardin, Michel-Alexandre; Babovic, Vladan; Santhanakrishnan, Deepak; Schmitter, Petra; Meshgi, Ali

2013-12-15

Climate change and rapid urbanization requires decision-makers to develop a long-term forward assessment on sustainable urban water management projects. This is further complicated by the difficulties of assessing sustainable designs and various design scenarios from an economic standpoint. A conventional valuation approach for urban water management projects, like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, fails to incorporate uncertainties, such as amount of rainfall, unit cost of water, and other uncertainties associated with future changes in technological domains. Such approach also fails to include the value of flexibility, which enables managers to adapt and reconfigure systems over time as uncertainty unfolds. This work describes an integrated framework to value investments in urban water management systems under uncertainty. It also extends the conventional DCF analysis through explicit considerations of flexibility in systems design and management. The approach incorporates flexibility as intelligent decision-making mechanisms that enable systems to avoid future downside risks and increase opportunities for upside gains over a range of possible futures. A water catchment area in Singapore was chosen to assess the value of a flexible extension of standard drainage canals and a flexible deployment of a novel water catchment technology based on green roofs and porous pavements. Results show that integrating uncertainty and flexibility explicitly into the decision-making process can reduce initial capital expenditure, improve value for investment, and enable decision-makers to learn more about system requirements during the lifetime of the project. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tomorrows' Air Transportation System Breakout Series Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

The purpose of this presentation is to discuss tomorrow's air transportation system. Section of this presentation includes: chair comments; other general comments; surface congestion alleviation; runway productivity; enhanced arrival/departure tools; integrated airspace decision support tools; national traffic flow management, runway independent operations; ATM TFM weather; and terminal weather.

Topographic controls on soil nutrient variations in a Silvopasture system

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Topography plays a crucial role in the spatial distribution of nutrients in soils because of its influence on the flow and (re)distribution of water and energy in a landscape. Information on the spatial pattern of soil nutrient distribution would benefit management decisions to maximize crop yield a...

Using Cognitive Work Analysis to Fit Decision Support Tools to Nurse Managers’ Work Flow

PubMed Central

Brewer, Barbara B.; Logue, Melanie D.; Gephart, Sheila; Verran, Joyce A.

2011-01-01

Purpose To better understand the environmental constraints on nurse managers that impact their need for and use of decision support tools, we conducted a Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA). A complete CWA includes system analyses at five levels: work domain, decision-making procedures, decision-making strategies, social organization/collaboration, and worker skill level. Here we describe the results of the Work Domain Analysis (WDA) portion in detail then integrate the WDA with other portions of the CWA, reported previously, to generate a more complete picture of the nurse manager’s work domain. Methods Data for the WDA were obtained from semi-structured interviews with nurse managers, division directors, CNOs, and other managers (n = 20) on 10 patient care units in 3 Arizona hospitals. The WDA described the nurse manager’s environment in terms of the constraints it imposes on the nurse manager’s ability to achieve targeted outcomes through organizational goals and priorities, functions, processes, as well as work objects and resources (e.g., people, equipment, technology, and data). Constraints were identified and summarized through qualitative thematic analysis. Results The results highlight the competing priorities, and external and internal constraints that today’s nurse managers must satisfy as they try to improve quality and safety outcomes on their units. Nurse managers receive a great deal of data, much in electronic format. Although dashboards were perceived as helpful because they integrated some data elements, no decision support tools were available to help nurse managers with planning or answering “what if” questions. The results suggest both the need for additional decision support to manage the growing complexity of the environment, and the constraints the environment places on the design of that technology if it is to be effective. Limitations of the study include the small homogenous sample and the reliance on interview data targeting safety and quality. PMID:21862397

Incorporating User Preferences Within an Optimal Traffic Flow Management Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rios, Joseph Lucio; Sheth, Kapil S.; Guiterrez-Nolasco, Sebastian Armardo

2010-01-01

The effectiveness of future decision support tools for Traffic Flow Management in the National Airspace System will depend on two major factors: computational burden and collaboration. Previous research has focused separately on these two aspects without consideration of their interaction. In this paper, their explicit combination is examined. It is shown that when user preferences are incorporated with an optimal approach to scheduling, runtime is not adversely affected. A benefit-cost ratio is used to measure the influence of user preferences on an optimal solution. This metric shows user preferences can be accommodated without inordinately, negatively affecting the overall system delay. Specifically, incorporating user preferences will increase delays proportionally to increased user satisfaction.

Single-entry models (SEMs) for scheduled services: Towards a roadmap for the implementation of recommended practices.

PubMed

Lopatina, Elena; Damani, Zaheed; Bohm, Eric; Noseworthy, Tom W; Conner-Spady, Barbara; MacKean, Gail; Simpson, Chris S; Marshall, Deborah A

2017-09-01

Long waiting times for elective services continue to be a challenging issue. Single-entry models (SEMs) are used to increase access to and flow through the healthcare system. This paper provides a roadmap for healthcare decision-makers, managers, physicians, and researchers to guide implementation and management of successful and sustainable SEMs. The roadmap was informed by an inductive qualitative synthesis of the findings from a deliberative process (a symposium on SEMs, with clinicians, researchers, senior policy-makers, healthcare managers, and patient representatives) and focus groups with the symposium participants. SEMs are a promising strategy to improve the management of referrals and represent one approach to reduce waiting times. The SEMs roadmap outlines current knowledge about SEMs and critical success factors for SEMs' implementation and management. This SEM roadmap is intended to help clinicians, decision-makers, managers, and researchers interested in developing new or strengthening existing SEMs. We consider this roadmap to be a living document that will continue to evolve as we learn more about implementing and managing sustainable SEMs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Material Flow Analysis as a Tool to improve Waste Management Systems: The Case of Austria.

PubMed

Allesch, Astrid; Brunner, Paul H

2017-01-03

This paper demonstrates the power of material flow analysis (MFA) for designing waste management (WM) systems and for supporting decisions with regards to given environmental and resource goals. Based on a comprehensive case study of a nationwide WM-system, advantages and drawbacks of a mass balance approach are discussed. Using the software STAN, a material flow system comprising all relevant inputs, stocks and outputs of wastes, products, residues, and emissions is established and quantified. Material balances on the level of goods and selected substances (C, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, N, Ni, P, Pb, Zn) are developed to characterize this WM-system. The MFA results serve well as a base for further assessments. Based on given goals, stakeholders engaged in this study selected the following seven criteria for evaluating their WM-system: (i) waste input into the system, (ii) export of waste (iii) gaseous emissions from waste treatment plants, (iv) long-term gaseous and liquid emissions from landfills, (v) waste being recycled, (vi) waste for energy recovery, (vii) total waste landfilled. By scenario analysis, strengths and weaknesses of different measures were identified. The results reveal the benefits of a mass balance approach due to redundancy, data consistency, and transparency for optimization, design, and decision making in WM.

An ecological response model for the Cache la Poudre River through Fort Collins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanahan, Jennifer; Baker, Daniel; Bledsoe, Brian P.; Poff, LeRoy; Merritt, David M.; Bestgen, Kevin R.; Auble, Gregor T.; Kondratieff, Boris C.; Stokes, John; Lorie, Mark; Sanderson, John

2014-01-01

The ERM was designed to represent the multi-dimensional ecological character of the contemporary urban Poudre River. It provides a scientific foundation that can serve as a decision support tool and foster a more informed community discussion about the future of the river as it provides a better understanding of the likely response of the Poudre River ecosystem to environmental flow management and other stewardship activities. In particular, model results can assist managers in developing specific management actions to achieve desirable goals for key indicators of river health.

Modeling and Visualizing Flow of Chemical Agents Across Complex Terrain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kao, David; Kramer, Marc; Chaderjian, Neal

2005-01-01

Release of chemical agents across complex terrain presents a real threat to homeland security. Modeling and visualization tools are being developed that capture flow fluid terrain interaction as well as point dispersal downstream flow paths. These analytic tools when coupled with UAV atmospheric observations provide predictive capabilities to allow for rapid emergency response as well as developing a comprehensive preemptive counter-threat evacuation plan. The visualization tools involve high-end computing and massive parallel processing combined with texture mapping. We demonstrate our approach across a mountainous portion of North California under two contrasting meteorological conditions. Animations depicting flow over this geographical location provide immediate assistance in decision support and crisis management.

Operator decision support system for integrated wastewater management including wastewater treatment plants and receiving water bodies.

PubMed

Kim, Minsoo; Kim, Yejin; Kim, Hyosoo; Piao, Wenhua; Kim, Changwon

2016-06-01

An operator decision support system (ODSS) is proposed to support operators of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in making appropriate decisions. This system accounts for water quality (WQ) variations in WWTP influent and effluent and in the receiving water body (RWB). The proposed system is comprised of two diagnosis modules, three prediction modules, and a scenario-based supporting module (SSM). In the diagnosis modules, the WQs of the influent and effluent WWTP and of the RWB are assessed via multivariate analysis. Three prediction modules based on the k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) method, activated sludge model no. 2d (ASM2d) model, and QUAL2E model are used to forecast WQs for 3 days in advance. To compare various operating alternatives, SSM is applied to test various predetermined operating conditions in terms of overall oxygen transfer coefficient (Kla), waste sludge flow rate (Qw), return sludge flow rate (Qr), and internal recycle flow rate (Qir). In the case of unacceptable total phosphorus (TP), SSM provides appropriate information for the chemical treatment. The constructed ODSS was tested using data collected from Geumho River, which was the RWB, and S WWTP in Daegu City, South Korea. The results demonstrate the capability of the proposed ODSS to provide WWTP operators with more objective qualitative and quantitative assessments of WWTP and RWB WQs. Moreover, the current study shows that ODSS, using data collected from the study area, can be used to identify operational alternatives through SSM at an integrated urban wastewater management level.

System to improve the Understanding of Collected Logistic Data, to Optimize Cycle-Time and Delivery Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Rooijen, Wim-Jan; Rodriguez, Ben

2002-12-01

A complex production mask-house faces the issue of handling and understanding the logistics information from the production process of the masks. We managed to control key performance indicators like cycle-time, flow-factor, line-speed, WIP, etc. To improve the line flow, we set-up rules for optimising batching at operations and forbid batching between operations, we defined maximum and minimum WIP at the operations, scheduled urgency of the different lots and built rules for bottleneck management. Also we restricted the number of "hot lots". By migrating to the modern MES (manufacturing execution system) MaTISSe, which manages the shopfloor control, and a reporting database, we are able to eliminate the time deviations within our data, caused by data-extraction for different reports at different moments. This gives us a better understanding of our fixed bottleneck and a faster recognition of the temporarily bottlenecks caused by missing availability of machines or men. In this paper we describe the features and advantages of our new MES, as well as the migration process. We have already achieved considerable benefits. Our plan is to extend decision support within the MES, to help both managers and operators to make the right decisions. The project behind this paper reaped major benefits described here and we are looking forward to further challenges and successes.

The ebb and flow of airborne pathogens: Monitoring and use in disease management decisions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Perhaps the earliest form of monitoring the regional spread of plant disease was a group of growers gathering together at the market and discussing what they see in their crops. This type of reporting continues to this day through regional extension blogs, by crop consultants and more formal scoutin...

Space Flight Resource Management for ISS Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Lacey L.; Slack, Kelley; Holland, Albert; Huning, Therese; O'Keefe, William; Sipes, Walter E.

2010-01-01

Although the astronaut training flow for the International Space Station (ISS) spans 2 years, each astronaut or cosmonaut often spends most of their training alone. Rarely is it operationally feasible for all six ISS crewmembers to train together, even more unlikely that crewmembers can practice living together before launch. Likewise, ISS Flight Controller training spans 18 months of learning to manage incredibly complex systems remotely in plug-and-play ground teams that have little to no exposure to crewmembers before a mission. How then do all of these people quickly become a team - a team that must respond flexibly yet decisively to a variety of situations? The answer implemented at NASA is Space Flight Resource Management (SFRM), the so-called "soft skills" or team performance skills. Based on Crew Resource Management, SFRM was developed first for shuttle astronauts and focused on managing human errors during time-critical events (Rogers, et al. 2002). Given the nature of life on ISS, the scope of SFRM for ISS broadened to include teamwork during prolonged and routine operations (O'Keefe, 2008). The ISS SFRM model resembles a star with one competency for each point: Communication, Cross-Culture, Teamwork, Decision Making, Team Care, Leadership/Followership, Conflict Management, and Situation Awareness. These eight competencies were developed with international participation by the Human Behavior and Performance Training Working Group. Over the last two years, these competencies have been used to build a multi-modal SFRM training flow for astronaut candidates and flight controllers that integrates team performance skills into the practice of technical skills. Preliminary results show trainee skill increases as the flow progresses; and participants find the training invaluable to performing well and staying healthy during ISS operations. Future development of SFRM training will aim to help support indirect handovers as ISS operations evolve further with the retirement of the Space Shuttle Program.

NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

2010-01-01

This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

Developing decision-relevant data and information systems for California water through listening and collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bales, R. C.; Bernacchi, L.; Conklin, M. H.; Viers, J. H.; Fogg, G. E.; Fisher, A. T.; Kiparsky, M.

2017-12-01

California's historic drought of 2011-2015 provided excellent conditions for researchers to listen to water-management challenges from decision makers, particularly with regard to data and information needs for improved decision making. Through the UC Water Security and Sustainability Research Initiative (http://ucwater.org/) we began a multi-year dialog with water-resources decision makers and state agencies that provide data and technical support for water management. Near-term products of that collaboration will be both a vision for a 21st-century water data and information system, and near-term steps to meet immediate legislative deadlines in a way that is consistent with the longer-term vision. While many university-based water researchers engage with state and local agencies on both science and policy challenges, UC Water's focus was on: i) integrated system management, from headwaters through groundwater and agriculture, and on ii) improved decision making through better water information systems. This focus aligned with the recognition by water leaders that fundamental changes in the way the state manages water were overdue. UC Water is focused on three "I"s: improved water information, empowering Institutions to use and to create new information, and enabling decision makers to make smart investments in both green and grey Infrastructure. Effective communication with water decision makers has led to engagement on high-priority programs where large knowledge gaps remain, including more-widespread groundwater recharge of storm flows, restoration of mountain forests in important source-water areas, governance structures for groundwater sustainability, and filling information gaps by bringing new technology to bear on measurement and data programs. Continuing engagement of UC Water researchers in public dialog around water resources, through opinion pieces, feature articles, blogs, white papers, social media, video clips and a feature documentary film have also been key to our continuing engagement. These novel partnerships are leading to decision-relevant tools and an improved integrated praxis in on-the-ground water-resources management. Our research is becoming more embedded in policies and our network remains interconnected with decision makers at multiple levels.

Implementation of Environmental Flows for Intermittent River Systems: Adaptive Management and Stakeholder Participation Facilitate Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conallin, John; Wilson, Emma; Campbell, Josh

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic pressure on freshwater ecosystems is increasing, and often leading to unacceptable social-ecological outcomes. This is even more prevalent in intermittent river systems where many are already heavily modified, or human encroachment is increasing. Although adaptive management approaches have the potential to aid in providing the framework to consider the complexities of intermittent river systems and improve utility within the management of these systems, success has been variable. This paper looks at the application of an adaptive management pilot project within an environmental flows program in an intermittent stream (Tuppal Creek) in the Murray Darling Basin, Australia. The program focused on stakeholder involvement, participatory decision-making, and simple monitoring as the basis of an adaptive management approach. The approach found that by building trust and ownership through concentrating on inclusiveness and transparency, partnerships between government agencies and landholders were developed. This facilitated a willingness to accept greater risks and unintended consequences allowing implementation to occur.

Linking on-farm dairy management practices to storm-flow fecal coliform loading for California coastal watersheds.

PubMed

Lewis, D J; Atwill, E R; Lennox, M S; Hou, L; Karle, B; Tate, K W

2005-08-01

How and where to improve water quality within an agricultural watershed requires data at a spatial scale that corresponds with individual management decision units on an agricultural operation. This is particularly true in the context of water quality regulations, such as Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs), that identify agriculture as one source of non-point source pollution through larger tributary watershed scale and above and below water quality investigations. We have conducted a systems approach study of 10 coastal dairies and ranches to document fecal coliform concentration and loading to surface waters at the management decision unit scale. Water quality samples were collected on a storm event basis from loading units that included: manure management systems; gutters; storm drains; pastures; and corrals and lots. In addition, in-stream samples were collected above and below the dairy facilities and from a control watershed, managed for light grazing and without a dairy facility or human residence and corresponding septic system. Samples were analyzed for fecal coliform concentration by membrane filtration. Instantaneous discharge was measured for each collected sample. Storm runoff was also calculated using the curve number method (SCS, 1985). Results for a representative dairy as well as the entire 10 dairy data set are presented. Fecal coliform concentrations demonstrate high variability both within and between loading units. Fecal coliform concentrations for pastures range from 206 to 2,288,888 cfu/100 ml and for lots from 1,933 to 166,105,000 cfu/100 ml. Mean concentrations for pastures and lots are 121,298 (SE = 62,222) and 3,155,584 (SE = 1,902,713) cfu/100 ml, respectively. Fecal coliform load from units of concentrated animals and manure are significantly more than units such as pastures while storm flow amounts were significantly less. Compared with results from earlier tributary scale studies in the watershed, this systems approach has generated water quality data that is beneficial for management decisions because of its scale and representation of current management activities. These results are facilitating on-farm changes through the cooperative efforts of dairy managers, regulatory agency staff, and sources of technical and financial assistance.

Regulating services as measures of ecological resilience on DoD lands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angermeier, Paul; Villamagna, Amy M.

2015-01-01

Knowledge of the capacity and flow of ecosystem services can help DoD land managers make decisions that enhance cost-effectiveness, minimize environmental damage, and maximize resources available for military missions. We demonstrated a methodology to quantify and map selected regulating services (RS), which helps land managers envision tradeoffs. Our objectives were to 1) estimate current capacity of and demand for selected RS within DoD lands, 2) examine the effects of future DoD land management and climate changes on the capacity and flow of these RS, and 3) project how land-use and climate changes in nearby lands affect future demand for RS. Our approach incorporates widely accepted models and equations, remote sensing, GIS analysis, and stakeholder involvement. Required data include land cover/use, soil type, precipitation, and air temperature. We integrated data into the a) Surface Curve Number Method and b) Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation to estimate capacity of sediment, nitrogen (N) and surface-water regulation. Capacities and flows of RS vary greatly across landscapes and are likely to vary as climate changes or development occurs. Analyses of RS capacity and flow can help managers and planners prioritize actions in the context of best management practices and compatible use buffers. Staff surveys indicated that our approach was informative and easy to use. Implementation may be most limited by on-installation personnel time.

After flow control: The steps taken by Dade County to ensure continued operation of its solid waste management system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mauriello, P.J.; Ragbeer, D.

1997-12-01

In the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court decision in the Carbone vs. Clarkstown case striking down waste flow control as unconstitutional, Dade County, Florida, one of the most severely impacted communities in the nation, has managed to stabilize its waste stream and balance its solid waste department finances; although the road taken to restabilization has been a difficult one. At its peak in 1995, Dade County experienced an annual loss of solid waste in excess of 1,000,000 tons, or over 40 percent of the waste stream normally handled by the County. This diversion of waste was accompanied by amore » net revenue loss of $30 million per year. The County lost its ability to plan for future capacity needs, or to assure sufficient future waste flows to meet its put-or-pay obligation to the County`s Resources Recovery plant operator. The County`s solid waste management system bonds were downgraded by Moody`s Investors Service and Standard and Poors. With the help of a special solid waste management team, appointed by the County Manager, the department was able to rightsize its waste disposal operations to fit its reduced waste flows, stabilize its waste stream, and develop strategies to solve its long-term funding shortfall.« less

Concerning human well-being and ecosystems sustainability on water resources management for Qishan River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2016-12-01

There are no large hydraulic structures in Qishan River cause the less human interference than other major river in Taiwan. However, the aquatic habitats still suffer disturbance from the discharge changes greatly between wet and drought season, and Jiaxian Weir and Yuemei Weir draw surplus water from Qishan River to Nanhua Reservoir and Agongdian Reservoir respectively. The weir operation rule doesn't clear define how much environmental flow should be preserved for maintaining downstream ecological environment. Hence, the study proposes a process for evaluating environmental flow under considering impact on human well-being and ecosystems sustainability. Empirical formula, hydrological, hydraulic and habitat methodologies were used to propose the environmental flow alternatives. Next, water allocation model and Habitat model were used to analysis the impact of environment flow alternatives on human well-being and ecosystems sustainability. The results show the suggested environmental flow in Qishan River is estimated by MAF10%. The environmental flow is between 8.03 10.83 cms during wet season and is between 1.07 1.44cms during wet season. The simulation results also provide the evidence from diverse aspect to help different authorities realized what they get and lose. The information can advance to reach a consensus during negotiations with different authorities and help decision maker make decisions.

Importance of understanding landscape biases in USGS gage locations: Implications and solutions for managers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; DeWeber, Jefferson Tyrell; Tsang, Yin-Phan; Krueger, Damon; Whittier, Joanna B.; Infante, Dana M.; Whelan, Gary

2014-01-01

Flow and water temperature are fundamental properties of stream ecosystems upon which many freshwater resource management decisions are based. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gages are the most important source of streamflow and water temperature data available nationwide, but the degree to which gages represent landscape attributes of the larger population of streams has not been thoroughly evaluated. We identified substantial biases for seven landscape attributes in one or more regions across the conterminous United States. Streams with small watersheds (<10 km2) and at high elevations were often underrepresented, and biases were greater for water temperature gages and in arid regions. Biases can fundamentally alter management decisions and at a minimum this potential for error must be acknowledged accurately and transparently. We highlight three strategies that seek to reduce bias or limit errors arising from bias and illustrate how one strategy, supplementing USGS data, can greatly reduce bias.

A "simulation chain" to define a Multidisciplinary Decision Support System for landslide risk management in pyroclastic soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damiano, E.; Mercogliano, P.; Netti, N.; Olivares, L.

2012-04-01

This paper proposes a Multidisciplinary Decision Support System (MDSS) as an approach to manage rainfall-induced shallow landslides of the flow type (flowslides) in pyroclastic deposits. We stress the need to combine information from the fields of meteorology, geology, hydrology, geotechnics and economics to support the agencies engaged in land monitoring and management. The MDSS consists of a "simulation chain" to link rainfall to effects in terms of infiltration, slope stability and vulnerability. This "simulation chain" was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change (CMCC) (meteorological aspects), at the Geotechnical Laboratory of the Second University of Naples (hydrological and geotechnical aspects) and at the Department of Economics of the University of Naples "Federico II" (economic aspects). The results obtained from the application of this simulation chain in the Cervinara area during eleven years of research allowed in-depth analysis of the mechanisms underlying a flowslide in pyroclastic soil.

Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow.

PubMed

Afilal, Mohamed; Yalaoui, Farouk; Dugardin, Frédéric; Amodeo, Lionel; Laplanche, David; Blua, Philippe

2016-07-01

Emergency department (ED) have become the patient's main point of entrance in modern hospitals causing it frequent overcrowding, thus hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to the ED in order to provide better quality service for patients. One of the key elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. In this case, forecasting patients flow, which will help decision makers to optimize human (doctors, nurses…) and material(beds, boxs…) resources allocation. The main interest of this research is forecasting daily attendance at an emergency department. The study was conducted on the Emergency Department of Troyes city hospital center, France, in which we propose a new practical ED patients classification that consolidate the CCMU and GEMSA categories into one category and innovative time-series based models to forecast long and short term daily attendance. The models we developed for this case study shows very good performances (up to 91,24 % for the annual Total flow forecast) and robustness to epidemic periods.

SPECT Myocardial Blood Flow Quantitation Concludes Equivocal Myocardial Perfusion SPECT Studies to Increase Diagnostic Benefits.

PubMed

Chen, Lung-Ching; Lin, Chih-Yuan; Chen, Ing-Jou; Ku, Chi-Tai; Chen, Yen-Kung; Hsu, Bailing

2016-01-01

Recently, myocardial blood flow quantitation with dynamic SPECT/CT has been reported to enhance the detection of coronary artery disease in human. This advance has created important clinical applications to coronary artery disease diagnosis and management for areas where myocardial perfusion PET tracers are not available. We present 2 clinical cases that undergone a combined test of 1-day rest/dipyridamole-stress dynamic SPECT and ECG-gated myocardial perfusion SPECT scans using an integrated imaging protocol and demonstrate that flow parameters are capable to conclude equivocal myocardial perfusion SPECT studies, therefore increasing diagnostic benefits to add value in making clinical decisions.

NASA Audit Follow-up Handbook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

This NASA Audit Follow-up Handbook is issued pursuant to the requirements of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-50, Audit Follow-up, dated September 29, 1982. It sets forth policy, uniform performance standards, and procedural guidance to NASA personnel for use when considering reports issued by the Office of Inspector General (OIG), other executive branch audit organizations, the Defense Contract Audit Agency (DCAA), and the General Accounting Office (GAO). It is intended to: specify principal roles; strengthen the procedures for management decisions (resolution) on audit findings and corrective action on audit report recommendations; emphasize the importance of monitoring agreed upon corrective actions to assure actual accomplishment; and foster the use of audit reports as effective tools of management. A flow chart depicting the NASA audit and management decision process is in Appendix A. This handbook is a controlled handbook issued in loose-leaf form and will be revised by page changes. Additional copies for internal use may be obtained through normal distribution channels.

Using an ecosystem service decision support tool to support ridge to reef management: An example of sediment reduction in west Maui, Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falinski, K. A.; Oleson, K.; Htun, H.; Kappel, C.; Lecky, J.; Rowe, C.; Selkoe, K.; White, C.

2016-12-01

Faced with anthropogenic stressors and declining coral reef states, managers concerned with restoration and resilience of coral reefs are increasingly recognizing the need to take a ridge-to-reef, ecosystem-based approach. An ecosystem services framing can help managers move towards these goals, helping to illustrate trade-offs and opportunities of management actions in terms of their impacts on society. We describe a research program building a spatial ecosystem services-based decision-support tool, and being applied to guide ridge-to-reef management in a NOAA priority site in West Maui. We use multiple modeling methods to link biophysical processes to ecosystem services and their spatial flows and social values in an integrating platform. Modeled services include water availability, sediment retention, nutrient retention and carbon sequestration on land. A coral reef ecosystem service model is under development to capture the linkages between terrestrial and coastal ecosystem services. Valuation studies are underway to quantify the implications for human well-being. The tool integrates techniques from decision science to facilitate decision making. We use the sediment retention model to illustrate the types of analyses the tool can support. The case study explores the tradeoffs between road rehabilitation costs and sediment export avoided. We couple the sediment and cost models with trade-off analysis to identify optimal distributed solutions that are most cost-effective in reducing erosion, and then use those models to estimate sediment exposure to coral reefs. We find that cooperation between land owners reveals opportunities for maximizing the benefits of fixing roads and minimizes costs. This research forms the building blocks of an ecosystem service decision support tool that we intend to continue to test and apply in other Pacific Island settings.

Hidden flows and waste processing--an analysis of illustrative futures.

PubMed

Schiller, F; Raffield, T; Angus, A; Herben, M; Young, P J; Longhurst, P J; Pollard, S J T

2010-12-14

An existing materials flow model is adapted (using Excel and AMBER model platforms) to account for waste and hidden material flows within a domestic environment. Supported by national waste data, the implications of legislative change, domestic resource depletion and waste technology advances are explored. The revised methodology offers additional functionality for economic parameters that influence waste generation and disposal. We explore this accounting system under hypothetical future waste and resource management scenarios, illustrating the utility of the model. A sensitivity analysis confirms that imports, domestic extraction and their associated hidden flows impact mostly on waste generation. The model offers enhanced utility for policy and decision makers with regard to economic mass balance and strategic waste flows, and may promote further discussion about waste technology choice in the context of reducing carbon budgets.

Design of a naturalized flow regime—An example from the Lower Missouri River, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Galat, David L.

2008-01-01

 group of river managers, stakeholders, and scientists met during summer 2005 to design a more naturalized flow regime for the Lower Missouri River (LMOR). The objective was to comply with requirements under the U.S. Endangered Species Act to support reproduction and survival of threatened and endangered species, with emphasis on the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), while minimizing negative effects to existing social and economic benefits of prevailing river management. Specific hydrograph requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction are unknown, hence much of the design process was based on features of the natural flow regime. Environmental flow components (EFCs) extracted from the reference natural flow regime were used to design and assess performance of alternative flow regimes.The design process incorporated a primary stage in which conceptual hydrographs were developed and assessed for their general ecological and social-economic performance. The second stage accounted for hydroclimatic variation by coding the conceptual hydrographs into reservoir release rules, adding constraints for downstream flooding and low-storage precludes, and running the rules through 100 years of hydroclimatic simulation. The output flow regimes were then evaluated for presumed ecological benefits based on how closely they resembled EFCs in the reference natural flow regime. Flow regimes also were assessed for social-economic cost indicators, including days of flooding of low-lying agricultural land, days over flood stage, and storage levels in system reservoirs.Our experience with flow-regime design on the LMOR underscored the lack of confidence the stakeholders place in the value of the natural flow regime as a measure of ecosystem benefit in the absence of fundamental scientific documentation. Stakeholders desired proof of ecological benefits commensurate with the certainty of economic losses. We also gained insight into the processes of integrating science into a collaborative management exercise. Although the 2005 collaborative effort failed to reach a consensus among stakeholders on a naturalized flow regime, the process was successful in pilot-testing a design approach; it helped focus scienctific efforts on key knowledge gaps; and it demonstrated the potential for collaborations among scientists, stakeholders, and managers in river management decision making.

Bottlenecks in Geospatial Data-Driven Decision-Making for Natural Disaster Management: A Case Study of Forest Fire Prevention and Control in Guatemala's Maya Biosphere Reserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berenter, J. S.; Mueller, J. M.; Morrison, I.

2016-12-01

Annual forest fires are a source of great economic and environmental cost in the Maya Biosphere Reserve (MBR), a region of high ecological and historical value in Guatemala's department of Petén. Scarce institutional resources, limited local response capacity, and difficult terrain place a premium on the use of Earth observation data for forest fire management in the MBR, but also present significant institutional barriers to optimizing the value of this data. Drawing upon key informant interviews and a contingent valuation survey of national and local actors conducted during a three-year performance evaluation of the USAID/NASA Regional Visualization and Monitoring System (SERVIR), this paper traces the flow of SERVIR data from acquisition to decision in order to assess the institutional and contextual factors affecting the value of Earth observation data for forest fire management in the MBR. Findings indicate that the use of satellite data for forest fire management in the MBR is widespread and multi-dimensional: historical assessments of land use and land cover, fire scarring, and climate data help central-level fire management agencies identify and regulate fire-sensitive areas; regular monitoring and dissemination of climate data enables coordination between agricultural burning activities and fire early warning systems; and daily satellite detection of thermal anomalies in land surface temperature permits first responders to monitor and react to "hotspot" activity. Findings also suggest, however, that while the decentralized operations of Petén's fire management systems foster the use of Earth observation data, systemic bottlenecks, including budgetary constraints, inadequate data infrastructure and interpretation capacity, and obstacles to regulatory enforcement, impede the flow of information and use of technology and thus impact the value of that data, particularly in remote and under-resourced areas of the MBR. A geographic expansion and fortification of support systems for use of Earth observation data is thus required to maximize the value of data-driven forest fire management in the MBR. Findings further validate a need for continued cooperation between scientific and governance institutions to disseminate and integrate geospatial data into environmental decision-making.

An Experiment of Student Understanding of Accruals versus Cash Flows

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miranda-Lopez, Jose Eduardo; Nichols, Linda M.

2007-01-01

The concepts of both accrual accounting and cash basis accounting need to be thoroughly understood by accounting graduates as they enter the workplace. In making decisions, both managers and investors often may need to make adjustments from one basis to the other. But do students really understand these concepts? This study uses an experimental…

Coupled ecological-social dynamics in a forested landscape: spatial interactions and information flow.

PubMed

Satake, Akiko; Leslie, Heather M; Iwasa, Yoh; Levin, Simon A

2007-06-21

We develop an agent-based model for forest harvesting to study how interactions between neighboring land parcels and the degree of information flow among landowners influence harvesting patterns. We assume a forest is composed of a number of land parcels that are individually managed. Each parcel is either mature forested, just-harvested, or immature forested. The state transition of each parcel is described by a Markov chain that incorporates the successional dynamics of the forest ecosystem and landowners' decisions about harvesting. Landowners decide to cut trees based on the expected discounted utility of forested vs. harvested land. One landowner's decision to cut trees is assumed to cause the degradation of ecosystem services on the downstream forested parcels. We investigated two different scenarios: in a strongly-connected society, landowners are familiar with each other and have full information regarding the behavior of other landowners. In a weakly-connected society, landowners do not communicate and therefore need to make subjective predictions about the behavior of others without adequate information. Regardless of the type of society, we observed that the spatial interaction between management units caused a chain reaction of tree harvesting in the neighborhood even when healthy forested land provided greater utility than harvested land. The harvest rate was higher in a weakly-connected society than that in a strongly-connected society. If landowners employed a long-term perspective, the harvest rate declined, and a more robust forested landscape emerged. Our results highlight the importance of institutional arrangements that encourage a long-term perspective and increased information flow among landowners in order to achieve successful forest management.

Decision Making Training in the Mission Operations Directorate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Keefe, William S.

2013-01-01

At JSC, we train our new flight controllers on a set of team skills that we call Space Flight Resource Management (SFRM). SFRM is akin to Crew Resource Management for the airlines and trains flight controllers to work as an effective team to reduce errors and improve safety. We have developed this training over the years with the assistance of Ames Research Center, Wyle Labs and University of Central Florida. One of the skills we teach is decision making/ problem solving (DM/PS). We teach DM/PS first in several classroom sessions, reinforce it in several part task training environments, and finally practice it in full-mission, full-team simulations. What I am proposing to talk about is this training flow: its content and how we teach it.

Environmental-Economic Assessment Of Generation, Flow And Efficiency Of Use Of Production And Consumption Waste

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikhailov, V. G.; Golofastova, N. N.; Galanina, T. V.; Koroleva, T. G.; Mikhailova, Ya S.

2017-01-01

The article deals with the issues of environmental and economic analysis of industrial and economic activities of an enterprise to assess the generation, flow and efficiency of production and consumption waste. The purpose of research is the analysis and the development of theoretical propositions for the functioning of the system of environmental and economic indicators for the effective management of production and consumption waste in the enterprise. The analysis of the existing systems of environmental and economic indicators taking into consideration the industry characteristics and the types of negative impacts is carried out. The main result of the study is the development of the system of environmental and economic indicators of production and consumption waste, adapted to the modern requirements. The results of the study can be recommended to support the effective management decision-making concerning waste management and the establishment of appropriate infrastructure.

Assessing climate-change risks to cultural and natural resources in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, James R.; Waste, Stephen M.; Maule, Alec G.

2014-01-01

We provide an overview of an interdisciplinary special issue that examines the influence of climate change on people and fish in the Yakima River Basin, USA. Jenni et al. (2013) addresses stakeholder-relevant climate change issues, such as water availability and uncertainty, with decision analysis tools. Montag et al. (2014) explores Yakama Tribal cultural values and well-being and their incorporation into the decision-making process. Graves and Maule (2012) simulates effects of climate change on stream temperatures under baseline conditions (1981–2005) and two future climate scenarios (increased air temperature of 1 °C and 2 °C). Hardiman and Mesa (2013) looks at the effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth with a bioenergetics model. Finally, Hatten et al. (2013) examines how changes in stream flow will affect salmonids with a rule-based fish habitat model. Our simulations indicate that future summer will be a very challenging season for salmonids when low flows and high water temperatures can restrict movement, inhibit or alter growth, and decrease habitat. While some of our simulations indicate salmonids may benefit from warmer water temperatures and increased winter flows, the majority of simulations produced less habitat. The floodplain and tributary habitats we sampled are representative of the larger landscape, so it is likely that climate change will reduce salmonid habitat potential throughout particular areas of the basin. Management strategies are needed to minimize potential salmonid habitat bottlenecks that may result from climate change, such as keeping streams cool through riparian protection, stream restoration, and the reduction of water diversions. An investment in decision analysis and support technologies can help managers understand tradeoffs under different climate scenarios and possibly improve water and fish conservation over the next century.

Interaction of Technology Adoption Constraints and Multi-level Policy Coherence at the Energy-Food Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerst, M.; Cox, M. E.; Laser, M.; Locke, K. A.; Kapuscinski, A. R.

2017-12-01

Policy- and decision-making at the food-energy-water (FEW) nexus entails additional complexities due to the multi-objective nature of FEW socio-technical systems: policies and decisions meant to improve one facet of the nexus might be less beneficial, or even detrimental, to achieving goals for other facets. In addition, implementing policies and decisions may be more difficult due to increasing coordination required among stakeholders across each nexus facet. We highlight these issues in an economic, material/energy flow, and institutional assessment of dairy farms that produce power from anaerobic digestion of cow manure. This socio-technical system is an example of an integrated food-energy system (IFES), which co-produces food and energy. In the case of dairy farms, water is also a significant consideration because cow manure, if improperly managed, can negatively impact water bodies. Our assessment asks the questions (i) of whether or not adopting an IFES improves farm resilience under potential economic and environment futures and (ii) how decisions, policies, and information can best be tailored to the FEW nexus. Our study consists of semi-structured interviews of 60 farms split between the US states of New York and Vermont, both of which have enacted policies to encourage digester adoption. Each interview asks farmers about their material and energy flows, costs, and decision-making process for adopting (or not) an anaerobic digester. In addition, farmers are asked questions about challenges and barriers they might have faced and future drivers of change. Preliminary results highlight important interactions between policy and decision-making. Foremost, an analysis of policy cohesion shows that environmental objectives cross sectors and governance levels, as state-level greenhouse gas mitigation policies interact with federal-level nutrient management policies. This form of potential policy incoherence may introduce additional problems that hinder digester adoption and operation because technology options might be constrained and information needs may be too great for farmer's to consider adopting a digester.

Combination of uncertainty theories and decision-aiding methods for natural risk management in a context of imperfect information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Dupouy, Guillaume; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

In mountain areas, natural phenomena such as snow avalanches, debris-flows and rock-falls, put people and objects at risk with sometimes dramatic consequences. Risk is classically considered as a combination of hazard, the combination of the intensity and frequency of the phenomenon, and vulnerability which corresponds to the consequences of the phenomenon on exposed people and material assets. Risk management consists in identifying the risk level as well as choosing the best strategies for risk prevention, i.e. mitigation. In the context of natural phenomena in mountainous areas, technical and scientific knowledge is often lacking. Risk management decisions are therefore based on imperfect information. This information comes from more or less reliable sources ranging from historical data, expert assessments, numerical simulations etc. Finally, risk management decisions are the result of complex knowledge management and reasoning processes. Tracing the information and propagating information quality from data acquisition to decisions are therefore important steps in the decision-making process. One major goal today is therefore to assist decision-making while considering the availability, quality and reliability of information content and sources. A global integrated framework is proposed to improve the risk management process in a context of information imperfection provided by more or less reliable sources: uncertainty as well as imprecision, inconsistency and incompleteness are considered. Several methods are used and associated in an original way: sequential decision context description, development of specific multi-criteria decision-making methods, imperfection propagation in numerical modeling and information fusion. This framework not only assists in decision-making but also traces the process and evaluates the impact of information quality on decision-making. We focus and present two main developments. The first one relates to uncertainty and imprecision propagation in numerical modeling using both classical Monte-Carlo probabilistic approach and also so-called Hybrid approach using possibility theory. Second approach deals with new multi-criteria decision-making methods which consider information imperfection, source reliability, importance and conflict, using fuzzy sets as well as possibility and belief function theories. Implemented methods consider information imperfection propagation and information fusion in total aggregation methods such as AHP (Saaty, 1980) or partial aggregation methods such as the Electre outranking method (see Soft Electre Tri ) or decisions in certain but also risky or uncertain contexts (see new COWA-ER and FOWA-ER- Cautious and Fuzzy Ordered Weighted Averaging-Evidential Reasoning). For example, the ER-MCDA methodology considers expert assessment as a multi-criteria decision process based on imperfect information provided by more or less heterogeneous, reliable and conflicting sources: it mixes AHP, fuzzy sets theory, possibility theory and belief function theory using DSmT (Dezert-Smarandache Theory) framework which provides powerful fusion rules.

Inter-City Virtual Water Transfers Within a Large Metropolitan Area: A Case Study of the Phoenix Metropolitan Area in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rushforth, R.; Ruddell, B. L.

2014-12-01

Water footprints have been proposed as potential sustainability indicators, but these analyses have thus far focused at the country-level or regional scale. However, for many countries, especially the United States, the most relevant level of water decision-making is the city. For water footprinting to inform urban sustainability, the boundaries for analysis must match the relevant boundaries for decision-making and economic development. Initial studies into city-level water footprints have provided insight into how large cities across the globe—Delhi, Lagos, Berlin, Beijing, York—create virtual water trade linkages with distant hinterlands. This study hypothesizes that for large cities the most direct and manageable virtual water flows exist at the metropolitan area scale and thus should provide the most policy-relevant information. This study represents an initial attempt at quantifying intra-metropolitan area virtual water flows. A modified commodity-by-industry input-output model was used to determine virtual water flows destined to, occurring within, and emanating from the Phoenix metropolitan area (PMA). Virtual water flows to and from the PMA were calculated for each PMA city using water consumption data as well as economic and industry statistics. Intra-PMA virtual water trade was determined using county-level traffic flow data, water consumption data, and economic and industry statistics. The findings show that there are archetypal cities within metropolitan areas and that each type of city has a distinct water footprint profile that is related to the value added economic processes occuring within their boundaries. These findings can be used to inform local water managers about the resilience of outsourced water supplies.

Developing user-friendly habitat suitability tools from regional stream fish survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zorn, T.G.; Seelbach, P.; Wiley, M.J.

2011-01-01

We developed user-friendly fish habitat suitability tools (plots) for fishery managers in Michigan; these tools are based on driving habitat variables and fish population estimates for several hundred stream sites throughout the state. We generated contour plots to show patterns in fish biomass for over 60 common species (and for 120 species grouped at the family level) in relation to axes of catchment area and low-flow yield (90% exceedance flow divided by catchment area) and also in relation to axes of mean and weekly range of July temperatures. The plots showed distinct patterns in fish habitat suitability at each level of biological organization studied and were useful for quantitatively comparing river sites. We demonstrate how these plots can be used to support stream management, and we provide examples pertaining to resource assessment, trout stocking, angling regulations, chemical reclamation of marginal trout streams, indicator species, instream flow protection, and habitat restoration. These straightforward and effective tools are electronically available so that managers can easily access and incorporate them into decision protocols and presentations.

Miles In Trail (MIT) Restrictions: A Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopardekar, Parimal; Green, Steven; Roherty, Tom; Aston, John

2003-01-01

Miles-in-trail restrictions are issued to meet the airport and/or airspace capacity. The purpose of this paper is to review the currently practiced miles-in-trail operations for traffic flow management at a typical en route Air Traffic Control Center. The paper describes roles and considerations of both traffic management coordinators and the controllers in planning, coordination, execution, and monitoring of miles-in-trail restrictions. The paper addresses the type of decisions that traffic management coordinators must make and the different information required to plan and monitor miles-in-trail restrictions. The implications of miles-in-trail restrictions on controller workload are also addressed. Using the Cleveland center as an example, the paper also identified some challenging traffic situations that required miles-in-trail restrictions on a regular basis. The paper is expected to benefit the research and development community as it provides the current challenges in traffic flow management and strengths and weakness of miles-in-trail operations.

Progression in Complexity: Contextualizing Sustainable Marine Resources Management in a 10th Grade Classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bravo-Torija, Beatriz; Jiménez-Aleixandre, María-Pilar

2012-01-01

Sustainable management of marine resources raises great challenges. Working with this socio-scientific issue in the classroom requires students to apply complex models about energy flow and trophic pyramids in order to understand that food chains represent transfer of energy, to construct meanings for sustainable resources management through discourse, and to connect them to actions and decisions in a real-life context. In this paper we examine the process of elaboration of plans for resources management in a marine ecosystem by 10th grade students (15-16 year) in the context of solving an authentic task. A complete class ( N = 14) worked in a sequence about ecosystems. Working in small groups, the students made models of energy flow and trophic pyramids, and used them to solve the problem of feeding a small community for a long time. Data collection included videotaping and audiotaping of all of the sessions, and collecting the students' written productions. The research objective is to examine the process of designing a plan for sustainable resources management in terms of the discursive moves of the students across stages in contextualizing practices, or different degrees of complexity (Jiménez-Aleixandre & Reigosa International Journal of Science Education, 14(1): 51-61 2006), understood as transformations from theoretical statements to decisions about the plan. The analysis of students' discursive moves shows how the groups progressed through stages of connecting different models, between them and with the context, in order to solve the task. The challenges related to taking this sustainability issue to the classroom are discussed.

Evaluating Vegetation Potential for Wildfire Impacted Watershed Using a Bayesian Network Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaramillo, L. V.; Stone, M. C.; Morrison, R. R.

2017-12-01

Decision-making for natural resource management is complex especially for fire impacted watersheds in the Southwestern US because of the vital importance of water resources, exorbitant cost of fire management and restoration, and the risks of the wildland-urban interface (WUI). While riparian and terrestrial vegetation are extremely important to ecosystem health and provide ecosystem services, loss of vegetation due to wildfire, post-fire flooding, and debris flows can lead to further degradation of the watershed and increased vulnerability to erosion and debris flow. Land managers are charged with taking measures to mitigate degradation of the watershed effectively and efficiently with limited time, money, and data. For our study, a Bayesian network (BN) approach is implemented to understand vegetation potential for Kashe-Katuwe Tent Rocks National Monument in the fire-impacted Peralta Canyon Watershed, New Mexico, USA. We implement both two-dimensional hydrodynamic and Bayesian network modeling to incorporate spatial variability in the system. Our coupled modeling framework presents vegetation recruitment and succession potential for three representative plant types (native riparian, native terrestrial, and non-native) under several hydrologic scenarios and management actions. In our BN model, we use variables that address timing, hydrologic, and groundwater conditions as well as recruitment and succession constraints for the plant types based on expert knowledge and literature. Our approach allows us to utilize small and incomplete data, incorporate expert knowledge, and explicitly account for uncertainty in the system. Our findings can be used to help land managers and local decision-makers determine their plan of action to increase watershed health and resilience.

Factors influencing the work efficiency of district health managers in low-resource settings: a qualitative study in Ghana.

PubMed

Bonenberger, Marc; Aikins, Moses; Akweongo, Patricia; Wyss, Kaspar

2016-01-14

There is increasing evidence that good district management practices can improve health system performance and conversely, that poor and inefficient management practices have detrimental effects. The aim of the present study was to identify factors contributing to inefficient management practices of district health managers and ways to improve their overall efficiency. Nineteen semi-structured interviews were conducted with district health managers in three districts of the Eastern Region in Ghana. The 19 interviews conducted comprised 90% of the managerial workforce in these districts in 2013. A thematic analysis was carried out using the WHO's leadership and management strengthening framework to structure the results. Key factors for inefficient district health management practices were identified to be: human resource shortages, inadequate planning and communication skills, financial constraints, and a narrow decision space that constrains the authority of district health managers and their ability to influence decision-making. Strategies that may improve managerial efficiency at both an individual and organizational level included improvements to planning, communication, and time management skills, and ensuring the timely release of district funds. Filling District Health Management Team vacancies, developing leadership and management skills of district health managers, ensuring a better flow of district funds, and delegating more authority to the districts seems to be a promising intervention package, which may result in better and more efficient management practices and stronger health system performance.

Decision support system for drinking water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janža, M.

2012-04-01

The problems in drinking water management are complex and often solutions must be reached under strict time constrains. This is especially distinct in case of environmental accidents in the catchment areas of the wells that are used for drinking water supply. The beneficial tools that can help decision makers and make program of activities more efficient are decision support systems (DSS). In general they are defined as computer-based support systems that help decision makers utilize data and models to solve unstructured problems. The presented DSS was developed in the frame of INCOME project which is focused on the long-term stable and safe drinking water supply in Ljubljana. The two main water resources Ljubljana polje and Barje alluvial aquifers are characterized by a strong interconnection of surface and groundwater, high vulnerability, high velocities of groundwater flow and pollutant transport. In case of sudden pollution, reactions should be very fast to avoid serious impact to the water supply. In the area high pressures arising from urbanization, industry, traffic, agriculture and old environmental burdens. The aim of the developed DSS is to optimize the activities in cases of emergency water management and to optimize the administrative work regarding the activities that can improve groundwater quality status. The DSS is an interactive computer system that utilizes data base, hydrological modelling, and experts' and stakeholders' knowledge. It consists of three components, tackling the different abovementioned issues in water management. The first one utilizes the work on identification, cleaning up and restoration of illegal dumpsites that are a serious threat to the qualitative status of groundwater. The other two components utilize the predictive capability of the hydrological model and scenario analysis. The user interacts with the system by a graphical interface that guides the user step-by-step to the recommended remedial measures. Consequently, the acquisition of information to support the water management's decisions is simplified and faster, thus contributing to more efficient water management and a safer supply of drinking water.

A Risk-Based Ecohydrological Approach to Assessing Environmental Flow Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcgregor, Glenn B.; Marshall, Jonathan C.; Lobegeiger, Jaye S.; Holloway, Dean; Menke, Norbert; Coysh, Julie

2018-03-01

For several decades there has been recognition that water resource development alters river flow regimes and impacts ecosystem values. Determining strategies to protect or restore flow regimes to achieve ecological outcomes is a focus of water policy and legislation in many parts of the world. However, consideration of existing environmental flow assessment approaches for application in Queensland identified deficiencies precluding their adoption. Firstly, in managing flows and using ecosystem condition as an indicator of effectiveness, many approaches ignore the fact that river ecosystems are subjected to threatening processes other than flow regime alteration. Secondly, many focus on providing flows for responses without considering how often they are necessary to sustain ecological values in the long-term. Finally, few consider requirements at spatial-scales relevant to the desired outcomes, with frequent focus on individual places rather than the regions supporting sustainability. Consequently, we developed a risk-based ecohydrological approach that identifies ecosystem values linked to desired ecological outcomes, is sensitive to flow alteration and uses indicators of broader ecosystem requirements. Monitoring and research is undertaken to quantify flow-dependencies and ecological modelling is used to quantify flow-related ecological responses over an historical flow period. The relative risk from different flow management scenarios can be evaluated at relevant spatial-scales. This overcomes the deficiencies identified above and provides a robust and useful foundation upon which to build the information needed to support water planning decisions. Application of the risk assessment approach is illustrated here by two case studies.

[Technology and progress in the use of information systems in the dental office].

PubMed

Walther, K

1989-09-01

The numerous DP systems used in dental offices are designed for administrative work. Data storage and management is limited to accountancy applications, and the advantages of the flow of information are restricted to operational purposes. Data of medical use are available only to a moderate extent. It should be possible, however, to use these information systems for processing purely medical data, for the structured input of comprehensive diagnostic information, and to have these data available for specific decisions. The use of a "decision-supporting system" has been tested in the documentation of dental diagnostic findings.

Electricity decision-making: New techniques for calculating statewide economic impacts from new power supply and demand-side management programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tegen, Suzanne Isabel Helmholz

This dissertation introduces new techniques for calculating and comparing statewide economic impacts from new coal, natural gas and wind power plants, as well as from demand-side management programs. The impetus for this work was two-fold. First, reviews of current literature and projects revealed that there was no standard way to estimate statewide economic impacts from new supply- and demand-side electricity options. Second, decision-makers who were interviewed stated that they were overwhelmed with data in general, but also lacked enough specific information about economic development impacts to their states from electricity, to make informed choices. This dissertation includes chapters on electricity decision-making and on economic impacts from supply and demand. The supply chapter compares different electricity options in three states which vary in natural resource content: Arizona, Colorado and Michigan. To account for differing capacity factors, resources are compared on a per-megawatt-hour basis. The calculations of economic impacts from new supply include: materials and labor for construction, operations, maintenance, fuel extraction, fuel transport, as well as property tax, financing and landowner revenues. The demand-side chapter compares residential, commercial and industrial programs in Iowa. Impact calculations include: incremental labor and materials for program planning, installation and operations, as well as sales taxes and electricity saved. Results from supply-side calculations in the three states analyzed indicate that adding new wind power can have a greater impact to a state's economy than adding new gas or coal power due to resource location, taxes and infrastructure. Additionally, demand-side management programs have a higher relative percentage of in-state dollar flow than supply-side solutions, though demand-side programs typically involve fewer MWh and dollars than supply-side generation. Methods for this dissertation include researching existing models and data, gathering new data and interviews with industry representatives and policy makers. The new techniques are important for decision-makers, utilities, energy advocates and others who are concerned with economic development and in-state dollar flows from new electricity decisions.

The radiology digital dashboard: effects on report turnaround time.

PubMed

Morgan, Matthew B; Branstetter, Barton F; Lionetti, David M; Richardson, Jeremy S; Chang, Paul J

2008-03-01

As radiology departments transition to near-complete digital information management, work flows and their supporting informatics infrastructure are becoming increasingly complex. Digital dashboards can integrate separate computerized information systems and summarize key work flow metrics in real time to facilitate informed decision making. A PACS-integrated digital dashboard function designed to alert radiologists to their unsigned report queue status, coupled with an actionable link to the report signing application, resulted in a 24% reduction in the time between transcription and report finalization. The dashboard was well received by radiologists who reported high usage for signing reports. Further research is needed to identify and evaluate other potentially useful work flow metrics for inclusion in a radiology clinical dashboard.

Elements of an environmental decision support system for seasonal wetland salt management in a river basin subjected to water quality regulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinn, N.W.T.

Seasonally managed wetlands in the Grasslands Basin on the west-side of California's San Joaquin Valley provide food and shelter for migratory wildfowl during winter months and sport for waterfowl hunters during the annual duck season. Surface water supply to these wetlands contain salt which, when drained to the San Joaquin River during the annual drawdown period, can negatively impact water quality and cause concern to downstream agricultural riparian water diverters. Recent environmental regulation, limiting discharges salinity to the San Joaquin River and primarily targeting agricultural non-point sources, now also targets return flows from seasonally managed wetlands. Real-time water quality managementmore » has been advocated as a means of continuously matching salt loads discharged from agricultural, wetland and municipal operations to the assimilative capacity of the San Joaquin River. Past attempts to build environmental monitoring and decision support systems (EDSS's) to implement this concept have enjoyed limited success for reasons that are discussed in this paper. These reasons are discussed in the context of more general challenges facing the successful implementation of a comprehensive environmental monitoring, modelling and decision support system for the San Joaquin River Basin.« less

Clinical information systems: cornerstone for an efficient hospital management.

PubMed

Lovis, Christian

2011-01-01

The university hospitals of Geneva are the largest consortium of public hospitals in Switzerland. This organization is born in 1995, after a political decision to merge the seven public and teaching hospitals of the Canton of Geneva. From an information technologies perspective, it took several years to reach a true unified vision of the complete organization. The clinical information system is deployed in all sites covering in- and outpatient cares. It is seen as the cornerstone of information management and flow in the organization, for direct patient care and decision support, but also for the management to drive, improve and leverage the activities, for better efficiency, quality and safety of care, but also to drive processes. As the system has become more important for the organization, it has required progressive changes in its governance. The high importance of interoperability and use of formal representation has become a major challenge in order to be able to reuse clinical information for real-time care and management activities, and for secondary usage such as billing, resource management, strategic planning and clinical research. This paper proposes a short overview of the tools allowing to leverage the management for physicians, nurses, human resources and hospital governance.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Two online resources help fleets evaluate the economic soundness of a compressed natural gas program. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Vehicle Infrastructure and Cash-Flow Evaluation (VICE 2.0) model and the accompanying report, Building a Business Case for Compressed Natural Gas in Fleet Applications, are uniquely designed for fleet managers considering an investment in CNG and can help ensure wise investment decisions about CNG vehicles and infrastructure.

The ABCs of Technology Leasing: Get the Facts on the Pros and Cons of Leasing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aldridge, Robb

2005-01-01

Ownership means control. What one buys is easier to manage with respect to upgrading or getting rid of equipment that is no longer adequate for the job. Purchasing can put severe demands on cash flow, however, so sometimes the budget drives the decision to lease. Not surprisingly, leasing reverses the advantages and disadvantages of ownership. For…

A Conceptual Design of a Departure Planner Decision Aid

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anagnostakis, Ioannis; Idris, Husni R.; Clark, John-Paul; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Odoni, Amedeo R.; Hall, William D.

2000-01-01

Terminal area Air Traffic Management handles both arriving and departing traffic. To date, research work on terminal area operations has focused primarily on the arrival flow and typically departures are taken into account only in an approximate manner. However, arrivals and departures are highly coupled processes especially in the terminal airspace, with complex interactions and sharing of the same airport resources between arrivals and departures taking place in practically every important terminal area. Therefore, the addition of automation aids for departures, possibly in co-operation with existing arrival flow automation systems, could have a profound contribution in enhancing the overall efficiency of airport operations. This paper presents the conceptual system architecture for such an automation aid, the Departure Planner (DP). This architecture can be used as a core in the development of decision-aiding systems to assist air traffic controllers in improving the performance of departure operations and optimize runway time allocation among different operations at major congested airports. The design of such systems is expected to increase the overall efficiency of terminal area operations and yield benefits for all stakeholders involved in Air Traffic Management (ATM) operations, users as well as service providers.

Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar; Kim, Douglas

2003-01-01

The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

Optimally managing water resources in large river basins for an uncertain future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edwin A. Roehl, Jr.; Conrads, Paul

2014-01-01

Managers of large river basins face conflicting needs for water resources such as wildlife habitat, water supply, wastewater assimilative capacity, flood control, hydroelectricity, and recreation. The Savannah River Basin for example, has experienced three major droughts since 2000 that resulted in record low water levels in its reservoirs, impacting local economies for years. The Savannah River Basin’s coastal area contains municipal water intakes and the ecologically sensitive freshwater tidal marshes of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge. The Port of Savannah is the fourth busiest in the United States, and modifications to the harbor have caused saltwater to migrate upstream, reducing the freshwater marsh’s acreage more than 50 percent since the 1970s. There is a planned deepening of the harbor that includes flow-alteration features to minimize further migration of salinity. The effectiveness of the flow-alteration features will only be known after they are constructed. One of the challenges of basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data by using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to significantly reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of the flow-alteration features after the deepening also is demonstrated

Historical analysis of riparian vegetation change in response to shifting management objectives on the Middle Rio Grande

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petrakis, Roy; van Leeuwen, Willem J.D.; Villarreal, Miguel; Tashjian, Paul; Dello Russo, Regina; Scott, Christopher A.

2017-01-01

Riparian ecosystems are valuable to the ecological and human communities that depend on them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use and ecosystem services, creating a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem. This has necessitated research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation change. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations, resulting in threats to its riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research uses remote sensing data, GIS, a review of management decisions, and an assessment of climate to both quantify how riparian vegetation has been altered over time and provide interpretations of the relationships between riparian change and shifting climate and management objectives. This research focused on four management phases from 1935 to 2014, each highlighting different management practices and climate-driven river patterns, providing unique opportunities to observe a direct relationship between river management, climate, and riparian response. Overall, we believe that management practices coupled with reduced surface river-flows with limited overbank flooding influenced the compositional and spatial patterns of vegetation, including possibly increasing non-native vegetation coverage. However, recent restoration efforts have begun to reduce non-native vegetation coverage.

A methodology for quantifying and mapping ecosystem services provided by watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villamagna, Amy M.; Angermeier, Paul L.

2015-01-01

Watershed processes – physical, chemical, and biological – are the foundation for many benefits that ecosystems provide for human societies. A crucial step toward accurately representing those benefits, so they can ultimately inform decisions about land and water management, is the development of a coherent methodology that can translate available data into the ecosystem services (ES) produced by watersheds. Ecosystem services (ES) provide an instinctive way to understand the tradeoffs associated with natural resource management. We provide a synthesis of common terminology and explain a rationale and framework for distinguishing among the components of ecosystem service delivery, including: an ecosystem’s capacity to produce a service; societal demand for the service; ecological pressures on this service; and flow of the service to people. We discuss how interpretation and measurement of these components can differ among provisioning, regulating, and cultural services and describe selected methods for quantifying ES components as well as constraints on data availability. We also present several case studies to illustrate our methods, including mapping capacity of several water purification services and demand for two forms of wildlife-based recreation, and discuss future directions for ecosystem service assessments. Our flexible framework treats service capacity, demand, ecological pressure, and flow as separate but interactive entities to better evaluate the sustainability of service provision across space and time and to help guide management decisions.

Practice management companies improve practices' financial position.

PubMed

Dupell, T

1997-11-01

To maintain control over healthcare delivery and financial decisions, as well as increase access to capital markets, some group practices are forming their own physician practice management companies. These companies should be organized to balance the expectations of physicians with the values of capital markets. This organization should include retained earnings, financial reporting in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), predictable earnings and cash flow, physician ownership and leadership, and incentives for high-quality management. Three large, primary care and multispecialty clinics that merged to form a new physician practice management company increased their access to capital markets and improved their overall financial position, which will help them achieve long-term survival.

Optimizing model: insemination, replacement, seasonal production, and cash flow.

PubMed

DeLorenzo, M A; Spreen, T H; Bryan, G R; Beede, D K; Van Arendonk, J A

1992-03-01

Dynamic programming to solve the Markov decision process problem of optimal insemination and replacement decisions was adapted to address large dairy herd management decision problems in the US. Expected net present values of cow states (151,200) were used to determine the optimal policy. States were specified by class of parity (n = 12), production level (n = 15), month of calving (n = 12), month of lactation (n = 16), and days open (n = 7). Methodology optimized decisions based on net present value of an individual cow and all replacements over a 20-yr decision horizon. Length of decision horizon was chosen to ensure that optimal policies were determined for an infinite planning horizon. Optimization took 286 s of central processing unit time. The final probability transition matrix was determined, in part, by the optimal policy. It was estimated iteratively to determine post-optimization steady state herd structure, milk production, replacement, feed inputs and costs, and resulting cash flow on a calendar month and annual basis if optimal policies were implemented. Implementation of the model included seasonal effects on lactation curve shapes, estrus detection rates, pregnancy rates, milk prices, replacement costs, cull prices, and genetic progress. Other inputs included calf values, values of dietary TDN and CP per kilogram, and discount rate. Stochastic elements included conception (and, thus, subsequent freshening), cow milk production level within herd, and survival. Validation of optimized solutions was by separate simulation model, which implemented policies on a simulated herd and also described herd dynamics during transition to optimized structure.

Cognitive task analysis of network analysts and managers for network situational awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erbacher, Robert F.; Frincke, Deborah A.; Wong, Pak Chung; Moody, Sarah; Fink, Glenn

2010-01-01

The goal of our project is to create a set of next-generation cyber situational-awareness capabilities with applications to other domains in the long term. The situational-awareness capabilities being developed focus on novel visualization techniques as well as data analysis techniques designed to improve the comprehensibility of the visualizations. The objective is to improve the decision-making process to enable decision makers to choose better actions. To this end, we put extensive effort into ensuring we had feedback from network analysts and managers and understanding what their needs truly are. This paper discusses the cognitive task analysis methodology we followed to acquire feedback from the analysts. This paper also provides the details we acquired from the analysts on their processes, goals, concerns, etc. A final result we describe is the generation of a task-flow diagram.

Season-ahead Drought Forecast Models for the Lower Colorado River Authority in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, P. J.; Zimmerman, B.; Grzegorzewski, M.; Watkins, D. W., Jr.; Anderson, R.

2014-12-01

The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) in Austin, Texas, manages the Highland Lakes reservoir system in Central Texas, a series of six lakes on the Lower Colorado River. This system provides water to approximately 1.1 million people in Central Texas, supplies hydropower to a 55-county area, supports rice farming along the Texas Gulf Coast, and sustains in-stream flows in the Lower Colorado River and freshwater inflows to Matagorda Bay. The current, prolonged drought conditions are severely taxing the LCRA's system, making allocation and management decisions exceptionally challenging, and affecting the ability of constituents to conduct proper planning. In this work, we further develop and evaluate season-ahead statistical streamflow and precipitation forecast models for integration into LCRA decision support models. Optimal forecast lead time, predictive skill, form, and communication are all considered.

Advancing beyond the system: telemedicine nurses' clinical reasoning using a computerised decision support system for patients with COPD - an ethnographic study.

PubMed

Barken, Tina Lien; Thygesen, Elin; Söderhamn, Ulrika

2017-12-28

Telemedicine is changing traditional nursing care, and entails nurses performing advanced and complex care within a new clinical environment, and monitoring patients at a distance. Telemedicine practice requires complex disease management, advocating that the nurses' reasoning and decision-making processes are supported. Computerised decision support systems are being used increasingly to assist reasoning and decision-making in different situations. However, little research has focused on the clinical reasoning of nurses using a computerised decision support system in a telemedicine setting. Therefore, the objective of the study is to explore the process of telemedicine nurses' clinical reasoning when using a computerised decision support system for the management of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The factors influencing the reasoning and decision-making processes were investigated. In this ethnographic study, a combination of data collection methods, including participatory observations, the think-aloud technique, and a focus group interview was employed. Collected data were analysed using qualitative content analysis. When telemedicine nurses used a computerised decision support system for the management of patients with complex, unstable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, two categories emerged: "the process of telemedicine nurses' reasoning to assess health change" and "the influence of the telemedicine setting on nurses' reasoning and decision-making processes". An overall theme, termed "advancing beyond the system", represented the connection between the reasoning processes and the telemedicine work and setting, where being familiar with the patient functioned as a foundation for the nurses' clinical reasoning process. In the telemedicine setting, when supported by a computerised decision support system, nurses' reasoning was enabled by the continuous flow of digital clinical data, regular video-mediated contact and shared decision-making with the patient. These factors fostered an in-depth knowledge of the patients and acted as a foundation for the nurses' reasoning process. Nurses' reasoning frequently advanced beyond the computerised decision support system recommendations. Future studies are warranted to develop more accurate algorithms, increase system maturity, and improve the integration of the digital clinical information with clinical experiences, to support telemedicine nurses' reasoning process.

Progress in and prospects for fluvial flood modelling.

PubMed

Wheater, H S

2002-07-15

Recent floods in the UK have raised public and political awareness of flood risk. There is an increasing recognition that flood management and land-use planning are linked, and that decision-support modelling tools are required to address issues of climate and land-use change for integrated catchment management. In this paper, the scientific context for fluvial flood modelling is discussed, current modelling capability is considered and research challenges are identified. Priorities include (i) appropriate representation of spatial precipitation, including scenarios of climate change; (ii) development of a national capability for continuous hydrological simulation of ungauged catchments; (iii) improved scientific understanding of impacts of agricultural land-use and land-management change, and the development of new modelling approaches to represent those impacts; (iv) improved representation of urban flooding, at both local and catchment scale; (v) appropriate parametrizations for hydraulic simulation of in-channel and flood-plain flows, assimilating available ground observations and remotely sensed data; and (vi) a flexible decision-support modelling framework, incorporating developments in computing, data availability, data assimilation and uncertainty analysis.

A hydrologic primer for New Jersey watershed management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watt, Martha K.

2000-01-01

Hydrologic data collected by Federal and State government agencies are invaluable as resources to policymakers who make decisions that affect the use of water in a particular watershed. The purpose of this report is to educate water-resource managers, policymakers, government officials, and the public about hydrologic concepts and the water-resource data needed to make informed decisions about water-management issues. (“Hydrologic” means relating to the occurrence, distribution, movement, and chemistry of all waters of the Earth (Fetter, 1980)). The first part of the report describes basic hydrologic concepts and includes explanations of the hydrologic cycle, the water budget, the surfacewater and ground-water flow systems, water-quality concepts and standards, and water use. The second part of the report summarizes the types of waterresource data that are available from Federal and State government agencies. Instructions on how to obtain the data and contact the appropriate Federal and State agencies, as well as suggestions for additional reading, also are included.

Human health improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa through integrated management of arthropod transmitted diseases and natural resources.

PubMed

Baumgärtner, J; Bieri, M; Buffoni, G; Gilioli, G; Gopalan, H; Greiling, J; Tikubet, G; Van Schayk, I

2001-01-01

A concept of an ecosystem approach to human health improvement in Sub-Saharan Africa is presented here. Three factors mainly affect the physical condition of the human body: the abiotic environment, vector-transmitted diseases, and natural resources. Our concept relies on ecological principles embedded in a social context and identifies three sets of subsystems for study and management: human disease subsystems, natural resource subsystems, and decision-support subsystems. To control human diseases and to secure food from resource subsystems including livestock or crops, integrated preventive approaches are preferred over exclusively curative and sectorial approaches. Environmental sustainability - the basis for managing matter and water flows - contributes to a healthy human environment and constitutes the basis for social sustainability. For planning and implementation of the human health improvement scheme, participatory decision-support subsystems adapted to the local conditions need to be designed through institutional arrangements. The applicability of this scheme is demonstrated in urban and rural Ethiopia.

Evaluating management tradeoffs between economic fiber production and other ecosystem services in a Chinese-fir dominated forest plantation in Fujian Province.

PubMed

Kang, Haijun; Seely, Brad; Wang, Guangyu; Innes, John; Zheng, Dexiang; Chen, Pingliu; Wang, Tongli; Li, Qinglin

2016-07-01

Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) is not only a valuable timber species, but also plays an important role in the provision of ecosystem services. Forest management decisions to increase the production of fiber for economic gain may have negative impacts on the long-term flow of ecosystem services from forest resources. Such tradeoffs should be taken into account to fulfill the requirements of sustainable forest management. Here we employed an established, ecosystem-based, stand-level model (FORECAST) in combination with a simplified harvest-scheduling model to evaluate the potential tradeoffs among indicators of provisional, regulating and supporting ecosystem services in a Chinese-fir-dominated landscape located in Fujian Province as a case study. Indicators included: merchantable volume harvested, biomass harvested, ecosystem carbon storage, CO2 fixation, O2 released, biomass nitrogen content, pollutant absorption, and soil fertility. A series of alternative management scenarios, representing different combinations of rotation length and harvest intensity, were simulated to facilitate the analysis. Results from the analysis were summarized in the form of a decision matrix designed to provide a method for forest managers to evaluate management alternatives and tradeoffs in the context of key indicators of ecosystem services. The scenario analysis suggests that there are considerable tradeoffs in terms of ecosystem services associated with stand and landscape-level management decisions. Longer rotations and increased retention tended to favor regulating and supporting services while the opposite was true for provisional services. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Decision Support System For The Real-Time Allocation Of The Water Resource Of The Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J.; Wang, G.; Liu, R.

2008-12-01

The Tarim River Basin is the longest inland river in China. Due to water scarcity, ecologically-fragile is becoming a significant constraint to sustainable development in this region. To effectively manage the limited water resources for ecological purposes and for conventional water utilization purposes, a real-time water resources allocation Decision Support System (DSS) has been developed. Based on workflows of the water resources regulations and comprehensive analysis of the efficiency and feasibility of water management strategies, the DSS includes information systems that perform data acquisition, management and visualization, and model systems that perform hydrological forecast, water demand prediction, flow routing simulation and water resources optimization of the hydrological and water utilization process. An optimization and process control strategy is employed to dynamically allocate the water resources among the different stakeholders. The competitive targets and constraints are taken into considered by multi-objective optimization and with different priorities. The DSS of the Tarim River Basin has been developed and been successfully utilized to support the water resources management of the Tarim River Basin since 2005.

Water Accounting Plus (WA+) - a water accounting procedure for complex river basins based on satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karimi, P.; Bastiaanssen, W. G. M.; Molden, D.

2012-11-01

Coping with the issue of water scarcity and growing competition for water among different sectors requires proper water management strategies and decision processes. A pre-requisite is a clear understanding of the basin hydrological processes, manageable and unmanageable water flows, the interaction with land use and opportunities to mitigate the negative effects and increase the benefits of water depletion on society. Currently, water professionals do not have a common framework that links hydrological flows to user groups of water and their benefits. The absence of a standard hydrological and water management summary is causing confusion and wrong decisions. The non-availability of water flow data is one of the underpinning reasons for not having operational water accounting systems for river basins in place. In this paper we introduce Water Accounting Plus (WA+), which is a new framework designed to provide explicit spatial information on water depletion and net withdrawal processes in complex river basins. The influence of land use on the water cycle is described explicitly by defining land use groups with common characteristics. Analogous to financial accounting, WA+ presents four sheets including (i) a resource base sheet, (ii) a consumption sheet, (iii) a productivity sheet, and (iv) a withdrawal sheet. Every sheet encompasses a set of indicators that summarize the overall water resources situation. The impact of external (e.g. climate change) and internal influences (e.g. infrastructure building) can be estimated by studying the changes in these WA+ indicators. Satellite measurements can be used for 3 out of the 4 sheets, but is not a precondition for implementing WA+ framework. Data from hydrological models and water allocation models can also be used as inputs to WA+.

Beyond Prediction: the Many Ways in which Climate Science can Inform Adaptation Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R. J.

2017-12-01

Climate science provides an increasingly rich understanding of current and future climate, but this understanding is often not fully incorporated into climate adaptation decisions. In particular, the provision of climate information is still trapped in a narrow prediction-based framework, which envisions a sequential process that begins with model-based forecasts of future climate and decision makers then acting on those forecasts. Among its challenges, this framework can discourage action when climate predictions are deemed too uncertain, encourage overconfidence when climate scientists and decision makers fail to focus on decision-relevant but poorly understood extreme events, and offers a too-narrow communication path among climate scientists and decision makers. This talk will describe how robust decision approaches, organized around the idea of stress testing proposed adaptation decisions over a wide range of futures, can enable a richer flow information among climate scientists and decision makers. The talk illustrates these themes with two examples: 1) conservation management that explores the tradeoffs among alternative climate information products with different combinations of ensemble size and spatial resolution and 2) water quality implementation planning that focuses on the handling of extremes.

Dairy cow culling strategies: making economical culling decisions.

PubMed

Lehenbauer, T W; Oltjen, J W

1998-01-01

The purpose of this report was to examine important economic elements of culling decisions, to review progress in development of culling decision support systems, and to discern some of the potentially rewarding areas for future research on culling models. Culling decisions have an important influence on the economic performance of the dairy but are often made in a nonprogrammed fashion and based partly on the intuition of the decision maker. The computer technology that is available for dairy herd management has made feasible the use of economic models to support culling decisions. Financial components--including profit, cash flow, and risk--are major economic factors affecting culling decisions. Culling strategies are further influenced by short-term fluctuations in cow numbers as well as by planned herd expansion. Changes in herd size affect the opportunity cost for postponed replacement and may alter the relevance of optimization strategies that assume a fixed herd size. Improvements in model components related to biological factors affecting future cow performance, including milk production, reproductive status, and mastitis, appear to offer the greatest economic potential for enhancing culling decision support systems. The ultimate value of any culling decision support system for developing economic culling strategies will be determined by its results under field conditions.

Estimating the waiting time of multi-priority emergency patients with downstream blocking.

PubMed

Lin, Di; Patrick, Jonathan; Labeau, Fabrice

2014-03-01

To characterize the coupling effect between patient flow to access the emergency department (ED) and that to access the inpatient unit (IU), we develop a model with two connected queues: one upstream queue for the patient flow to access the ED and one downstream queue for the patient flow to access the IU. Building on this patient flow model, we employ queueing theory to estimate the average waiting time across patients. Using priority specific wait time targets, we further estimate the necessary number of ED and IU resources. Finally, we investigate how an alternative way of accessing ED (Fast Track) impacts the average waiting time of patients as well as the necessary number of ED/IU resources. This model as well as the analysis on patient flow can help the designer or manager of a hospital make decisions on the allocation of ED/IU resources in a hospital.

Disaster Management with a Next Generation Disaster Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y.

2015-12-01

As populations become increasingly concentrated in large cities, the world is experiencing an inevitably growing trend towards the urbanisation of disasters. Scientists have contributed significant advances in understanding the geophysical causes of natural hazards and have developed sophisticated tools to predict their effects; while, much less attention has been devoted to tools that increase situational awareness, facilitate leadership, provide effective communication channels and data flow and enhance the cognitive abilities of decision makers and first responders. In this paper, we envisioned the capabilities of a next generation disaster decision support system and hence proposed a state-of-the-art system architecture design to facilitate the decision making process in natural catastrophes such as flood and bushfire by utilising a combination of technologies for multi-channel data aggregation, disaster modelling, visualisation and optimisation. Moreover, we put our thoughts into action by implementing an Intelligent Disaster Decision Support System (IDDSS). The developed system can easily plug in to external disaster models and aggregate large amount of heterogeneous data from government agencies, sensor networks, and crowd sourcing platforms in real-time to enhance the situational awareness of decision makers and offer them a comprehensive understanding of disaster impacts from diverse perspectives such as environment, infrastructure and economy, etc. Sponsored by the Australian Government and the Victorian Department of Justice (Australia), the system was built upon a series of open-source frameworks (see attached figure) with four key components: data management layer, model application layer, processing service layer and presentation layer. It has the potential to be adopted by a range of agencies across Australian jurisdictions to assist stakeholders in accessing, sharing and utilising available information in their management of disaster events.

Distant testing in laboratory hematology and flow cytometry--the Indian experience.

PubMed

Das Gupta, Amar

2012-06-01

Outsourcing or sending out of patients' samples to other laboratories for hematologic investigations is a common practice these days. Preanalytic variables that alter cellular parameters and levels of analytes in transit and on storage can significantly and adversely affect interpretation of test results in hematology. Awareness of these changes is necessary to avoid misinterpretation of results that in turn could influence medical management decisions.

The watershed and river systems management program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Markstrom, S.L.; Frevert, D.; Leavesley, G.H.; ,

2005-01-01

The Watershed and River System Management Program (WaRSMP), a joint effort between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), is focused on research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among diverse water resource management demands. Considerations include: (1) legal and political constraints; (2) stake holder and consensus-building; (3) sound technical knowledge; (4) flood control, consumptive use, and hydropower; (5) water transfers; (6) irrigation return flows and water quality; (7) recreation; (8) habitat for endangered species; (9) water supply and proration; (10) near-surface groundwater; and (11) water ownership, accounting, and rights. To address the interdisciplinary and multi-stake holder needs of real-time watershed management, WaRSMP has developed a decision support system toolbox. The USGS Object User Interface facilitates the coupling of Reclamation's RiverWare reservoir operations model with the USGS Modular Modeling and Precipitation Runoff Modeling Systems through a central database. This integration is accomplished through the use of Model and Data Management Interfaces. WaRSMP applications include Colorado River Main stem and Gunnison Basin, the Yakima Basin, the Middle Rio Grande Basin, the Truckee-Carson Basin, and the Umatilla Basin.

Information gathering, management and transfering for geospacial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Paulo; Correia, Anacleto; Teodoro, M. Filomena

2017-07-01

Information is a key subject in modern organization operations. The success of joint and combined operations with organizations partners depends on the accurate information and knowledge flow concerning the operations theatre: provision of resources, environment evolution, markets location, where and when an event occurred. As in the past and nowadays we cannot conceive modern operations without maps and geo-spatial information (GI). Information and knowledge management is fundamental to the success of organizational decisions in an uncertainty environment. The georeferenced information management is a process of knowledge management, it begins in the raw data and ends on generating knowledge. GI and intelligence systems allow us to integrate all other forms of intelligence and can be a main platform to process and display geo-spatial-time referenced events. Combining explicit knowledge with peoples know-how to generate a continuous learning cycle that supports real time decisions mitigates the influences of fog of everyday competition and provides the knowledge supremacy. Extending the preliminary analysis done in [1], this work applies the exploratory factor analysis to a questionnaire about the GI and intelligence management in an organization company allowing to identify future lines of action to improve information process sharing and exploration of all the potential of this important resource.

Multi-agent Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

2011-12-01

Increasing environmental awareness and emerging trends such as water trading, energy market, deregulation and democratization of water-related services are challenging integrated water resources planning and management worldwide. The traditional approach to water management design based on sector-by-sector optimization has to be reshaped to account for multiple interrelated decision-makers and many stakeholders with increasing decision power. Centralized management, though interesting from a conceptual point of view, is unfeasible in most of the modern social and institutional contexts, and often economically inefficient. Coordinated management, where different actors interact within a full open trust exchange paradigm under some institutional supervision is a promising alternative to the ideal centralized solution and the actual uncoordinated practices. This is a significant issue in most of the Southern Alps regulated lakes, where upstream hydropower reservoirs maximize their benefit independently form downstream users; it becomes even more relevant in the case of transboundary systems, where water management upstream affects water availability downstream (e.g. the River Zambesi flowing through Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique or the Red River flowing from South-Western China through Northern Vietnam. In this study we apply Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) theory to design an optimal management in a decentralized way, considering a set of multiple autonomous agents acting in the same environment and taking into account the pay-off of individual water users, which are inherently distributed along the river and need to coordinate to jointly reach their objectives. In this way each real-world actor, representing the decision-making entity (e.g. the operator of a reservoir or a diversion dam) can be represented one-to-one by a computer agent, defined as a computer system that is situated in some environment and that is capable of autonomous action in this environment in order to meet its design objectives. The proposed approach is numerically tested on a synthetic case study, characterized by two multi-purpose reservoirs in cascade, two diversion dams and four different conflicting water uses: hydropower energy production, drinking supply, flooding prevention along the reservoir shores and irrigation supply. The system is therefore composed by four agents: the two operators of the diversion dams, which are purely reactive agents since they simply respond directly to the environment, and the operators of the two reservoirs, which are more complex agents because they have an internal state and their decisions are taken according to a closed-loop control scheme. In particular, the set of agents can act considering only their own objectives or they can coordinate to jointly reach better compromise solutions. Different interaction scenarios between the two extreme behaviours of centralized management and completely non-cooperation are simulated and analysed.

Bottom-up, decision support system development : a wetlandsalinity management application in California's San Joaquin Valley

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinn, Nigel W.T.

Seasonally managed wetlands in the Grasslands Basin ofCalifornia's San Joaquin Valley provide food and shelter for migratorywildfowl during winter months and sport for waterfowl hunters during theannual duck season. Surface water supply to these wetland contain saltwhich, when drained to the San Joaquin River during the annual drawdownperiod, negatively impacts downstream agricultural riparian waterdiverters. Recent environmental regulation, limiting discharges salinityto the San Joaquin River and primarily targeting agricultural non-pointsources, now addresses return flows from seasonally managed wetlands.Real-time water quality management has been advocated as a means ofmatching wetland return flows to the assimilative capacity of the SanJoaquin River. Past attemptsmore » to build environmental monitoring anddecision support systems to implement this concept have failed forreasons that are discussed in this paper. These reasons are discussed inthe context of more general challenges facing the successfulimplementation of environmental monitoring, modelling and decisionsupport systems. The paper then provides details of a current researchand development project which will ultimately provide wetland managerswith the means of matching salt exports with the available assimilativecapacity of the San Joaquin River, when fully implemented. Manipulationof the traditional wetland drawdown comes at a potential cost to thesustainability of optimal wetland moist soil plant habitat in thesewetlands - hence the project provides appropriate data and a feedback andresponse mechanism for wetland managers to balance improvements to SanJoaquin River quality with internally-generated information on the healthof the wetland resource. The author concludes the paper by arguing thatthe architecture of the current project decision support system, whencoupled with recent advances in environmental data acquisition, dataprocessing and information dissemination technology, holds significantpromise to address some of the problems described earlier in the paperthat have limited past efforts to improve Basin water qualitymanagement.« less

The Ebb and Flow of Airborne Pathogens: Monitoring and Use in Disease Management Decisions.

PubMed

Mahaffee, Walter F; Stoll, Rob

2016-05-01

Perhaps the earliest form of monitoring the regional spread of plant disease was a group of growers gathering together at the market and discussing what they see in their crops. This type of reporting continues to this day through regional extension blogs, by crop consultants and more formal scouting of sentential plots in the IPM PIPE network (http://www.ipmpipe.org/). As our knowledge of plant disease epidemiology has increased, we have also increased our ability to detect and monitor the presence of pathogens and use this information to make management decisions in commercial production systems. The advent of phylogenetics, next-generation sequencing, and nucleic acid amplification technologies has allowed for development of sensitive and accurate assays for pathogen inoculum detection and quantification. The application of these tools is beginning to change how we manage diseases with airborne inoculum by allowing for the detection of pathogen movement instead of assuming it and by targeting management strategies to the early phases of the epidemic development when there is the greatest opportunity to reduce the rate of disease development. While there are numerous advantages to using data on inoculum presence to aid management decisions, there are limitations in what the data represent that are often unrecognized. In addition, our understanding of where and how to effectively monitor airborne inoculum is limited. There is a strong need to improve our knowledge of the mechanisms that influence inoculum dispersion across scales as particles move from leaf to leaf, and everything in between.

A web platform for integrated surface water - groundwater modeling and data management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatkhutdinov, Aybulat; Stefan, Catalin; Junghanns, Ralf

2016-04-01

Model-based decision support systems are considered to be reliable and time-efficient tools for resources management in various hydrology related fields. However, searching and acquisition of the required data, preparation of the data sets for simulations as well as post-processing, visualization and publishing of the simulations results often requires significantly more work and time than performing the modeling itself. The purpose of the developed software is to combine data storage facilities, data processing instruments and modeling tools in a single platform which potentially can reduce time required for performing simulations, hence decision making. The system is developed within the INOWAS (Innovative Web Based Decision Support System for Water Sustainability under a Changing Climate) project. The platform integrates spatially distributed catchment scale rainfall - runoff, infiltration and groundwater flow models with data storage, processing and visualization tools. The concept is implemented in a form of a web-GIS application and is build based on free and open source components, including the PostgreSQL database management system, Python programming language for modeling purposes, Mapserver for visualization and publishing the data, Openlayers for building the user interface and others. Configuration of the system allows performing data input, storage, pre- and post-processing and visualization in a single not disturbed workflow. In addition, realization of the decision support system in the form of a web service provides an opportunity to easily retrieve and share data sets as well as results of simulations over the internet, which gives significant advantages for collaborative work on the projects and is able to significantly increase usability of the decision support system.

Fire behavior and risk analysis in spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedman, Robert; Sacksteder, Kurt R.

1988-01-01

Practical risk management for present and future spacecraft, including space stations, involves the optimization of residual risks balanced by the spacecraft operational, technological, and economic limitations. Spacecraft fire safety is approached through three strategies, in order of risk: (1) control of fire-causing elements, through exclusion of flammable materials for example; (2) response to incipient fires through detection and alarm; and (3) recovery of normal conditions through extinguishment and cleanup. Present understanding of combustion in low gravity is that, compared to normal gravity behavior, fire hazards may be reduced by the absence of buoyant gas flows yet at the same time increased by ventilation flows and hot particle expulsion. This paper discusses the application of low-gravity combustion knowledge and appropriate aircraft analogies to fire detection, fire fighting, and fire-safety decisions for eventual fire-risk management and optimization in spacecraft.

Compounding Effects of Agricultural Land Use and Water Use in Free-Flowing Rivers: Confounding Issues for Environmental Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardie, Scott A.; Bobbi, Chris J.

2018-03-01

Defining the ecological impacts of water extraction from free-flowing river systems in altered landscapes is challenging as multiple stressors (e.g., flow regime alteration, increased sedimentation) may have simultaneous effects and attributing causality is problematic. This multiple-stressor context has been acknowledged in environmental flows science, but is often neglected when it comes to examining flow-ecology relationships, and setting and implementing environmental flows. We examined the impacts of land and water use on rivers in the upper Ringarooma River catchment in Tasmania (south-east Australia), which contains intensively irrigated agriculture, to support implementation of a water management plan. Temporal and spatial and trends in river condition were assessed using benthic macroinvertebrates as bioindicators. Relationships between macroinvertebrate community structure and environmental variables were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses, focusing on the impacts of agricultural land use and water use. Structural changes in macroinvertebrate communities in rivers in the catchment indicated temporal and spatial declines in the ecological condition of some stretches of river associated with agricultural land and water use. Moreover, water extraction appeared to exacerbate impairment associated with agricultural land use (e.g., reduced macroinvertebrate density, more flow-avoiding taxa). The findings of our catchment-specific bioassessments will underpin decision-making during the implementation of the Ringarooma water management plan, and highlight the need to consider compounding impacts of land and water use in environmental flows and water planning in agricultural landscapes.

Compounding Effects of Agricultural Land Use and Water Use in Free-Flowing Rivers: Confounding Issues for Environmental Flows.

PubMed

Hardie, Scott A; Bobbi, Chris J

2018-03-01

Defining the ecological impacts of water extraction from free-flowing river systems in altered landscapes is challenging as multiple stressors (e.g., flow regime alteration, increased sedimentation) may have simultaneous effects and attributing causality is problematic. This multiple-stressor context has been acknowledged in environmental flows science, but is often neglected when it comes to examining flow-ecology relationships, and setting and implementing environmental flows. We examined the impacts of land and water use on rivers in the upper Ringarooma River catchment in Tasmania (south-east Australia), which contains intensively irrigated agriculture, to support implementation of a water management plan. Temporal and spatial and trends in river condition were assessed using benthic macroinvertebrates as bioindicators. Relationships between macroinvertebrate community structure and environmental variables were examined using univariate and multivariate analyses, focusing on the impacts of agricultural land use and water use. Structural changes in macroinvertebrate communities in rivers in the catchment indicated temporal and spatial declines in the ecological condition of some stretches of river associated with agricultural land and water use. Moreover, water extraction appeared to exacerbate impairment associated with agricultural land use (e.g., reduced macroinvertebrate density, more flow-avoiding taxa). The findings of our catchment-specific bioassessments will underpin decision-making during the implementation of the Ringarooma water management plan, and highlight the need to consider compounding impacts of land and water use in environmental flows and water planning in agricultural landscapes.

River management impacts on riparian forest vegetation along the Middle Rio Grande: 1935-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrakis, Roy E.

Riparian ecosystems of the southwestern United States are highly valuable to both the ecological and human communities which surround them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use, control, ecosystem service, and conservation. This creates a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem necessitating research on spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande, a 60 mile stretch from the San Acacia Diversion Dam to San Marcial, has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations over the past 80 years, resulting in threats to riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research was completed through the use and analysis of multi-source remote sensing data, GIS, and a review of the on-the-ground management decisions to better understand how the location and composition of the riparian vegetation has been affected by these shifting practices. This research focused on four phases, each highlighting different management practices and river flow patterns during the last 80-years. Each of these periods provides a unique opportunity to observe a direct relationship between river management and riparian land cover response and change. Overall, management practices reduced surface river flows and limited overbank flooding and resulted in changes in the composition, density, and spatial patterns of the vegetation, including increased non-native vegetation growth. Restoration efforts over the past few decades have begun to reduce the presence of non-native species. Despite these changes, this ecosystem was shown to be extremely resilient in maintaining its function/service throughout the entire study time frame.

Wetland Flow and Salinity Budgets and Elements of a Decision Support System toward Implementation of Real-Time Seasonal Wetland Salinity Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinn, N.W.T.; Ortega, R.; Rahilly, P.

2011-12-17

The project has provided science-based tools for the long-term management of salinity in drainage discharges from wetlands to the San Joaquin River. The results of the project are being used to develop best management practices (BMP) and a decision support system to assist wetland managers adjust the timing of salt loads delivered to the San Joaquin River during spring drawdown. Adaptive drainage management scheduling has the potential to improve environmental compliance with salinity objectives in the Lower San Joaquin River by reducing the frequency of violation of Vernalis salinity standards, especially in dry and critically dry years. The paired approachmore » to project implementation whereby adaptively managed and traditional practices were monitored in a side-by-side fashion has provided a quantitative measure of the impacts of the project on the timing of salt loading to the San Joaquin River. The most significant accomplishments of the project has been the technology transfer to wetland biologists, ditch tenders and water managers within the Grasslands Ecological Area. This “learning by doing” has build local community capacity within the Grassland Water District and California Department of Fish and Game providing these institutions with new capability to assess and effectively manage salinity within their wetlands while simultaneously providing benefits to salinity management of the San Joaquin River.« less

Sensor to User - NASA/EOS Data for Coastal Zone Management Applications Developed from Integrated Analyses: Verification, Validation and Benchmark Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Callie; Arnone, Robert

2006-01-01

The NASA Applied Sciences Program seeks to transfer NASA data, models, and knowledge into the hands of end-users by forming links with partner agencies and associated decision support tools (DSTs). Through the NASA REASoN (Research, Education and Applications Solutions Network) Cooperative Agreement, the Oceanography Division of the Naval Research Laboratory (NRLSSC) is developing new products through the integration of data from NASA Earth-Sun System assets with coastal ocean forecast models and other available data to enhance coastal management in the Gulf of Mexico. The recipient federal agency for this research effort is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The contents of this report detail the effort to further the goals of the NASA Applied Sciences Program by demonstrating the use of NASA satellite products combined with data-assimilating ocean models to provide near real-time information to maritime users and coastal managers of the Gulf of Mexico. This effort provides new and improved capabilities for monitoring, assessing, and predicting the coastal environment. Coastal managers can exploit these capabilities through enhanced DSTs at federal, state and local agencies. The project addresses three major issues facing coastal managers: 1) Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs); 2) hypoxia; and 3) freshwater fluxes to the coastal ocean. A suite of ocean products capable of describing Ocean Weather is assembled on a daily basis as the foundation for this semi-operational multiyear effort. This continuous realtime capability brings decision makers a new ability to monitor both normal and anomalous coastal ocean conditions with a steady flow of satellite and ocean model conditions. Furthermore, as the baseline data sets are used more extensively and the customer list increased, customer feedback is obtained and additional customized products are developed and provided to decision makers. Continual customer feedback and response with new improved products are required between the researcher and customer. This document details the methods by which these coastal ocean products are produced including the data flow, distribution, and verification. Product applications and the degree to which these products are used successfully within NOAA and coordinated with the Mississippi Department of Marine Resources (MDMR) is benchmarked.

Capacity planning for waste management systems: an interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming approach.

PubMed

Nie, Xianghui; Huang, Guo H; Li, Yongping

2009-11-01

This study integrates the concepts of interval numbers and fuzzy sets into optimization analysis by dynamic programming as a means of accounting for system uncertainty. The developed interval fuzzy robust dynamic programming (IFRDP) model improves upon previous interval dynamic programming methods. It allows highly uncertain information to be effectively communicated into the optimization process through introducing the concept of fuzzy boundary interval and providing an interval-parameter fuzzy robust programming method for an embedded linear programming problem. Consequently, robustness of the optimization process and solution can be enhanced. The modeling approach is applied to a hypothetical problem for the planning of waste-flow allocation and treatment/disposal facility expansion within a municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. Interval solutions for capacity expansion of waste management facilities and relevant waste-flow allocation are generated and interpreted to provide useful decision alternatives. The results indicate that robust and useful solutions can be obtained, and the proposed IFRDP approach is applicable to practical problems that are associated with highly complex and uncertain information.

Cognitive Task Analysis of Network Analysts and Managers for Network Situational Awareness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erbacher, Robert; Frincke, Deborah A.; Wong, Pak C.

The goal of the project was to create a set of next generation cyber situational awareness capabilities with applications to other domains in the long term. The goal is to improve the decision making process such that decision makers can choose better actions. To this end, we put extensive effort into ensuring we had feedback from network analysts and managers and understood what their needs truly were. Consequently, this is the focus of this portion of the research. This paper discusses the methodology we followed to acquire this feedback from the analysts, namely a cognitive task analysis. Additionally, this papermore » provides the details we acquired from the analysts. This essentially provides details on their processes, goals, concerns, the data and meta-data they analyze, etc. A final result we describe is the generation of a task-flow diagram.« less

Quantifying human behavior uncertainties in a coupled agent-based model for water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hyun, J. Y.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Tidwell, V. C.; Macknick, J.

2017-12-01

Modeling human behaviors and decisions in water resources management is a challenging issue due to its complexity and uncertain characteristics that affected by both internal (such as stakeholder's beliefs on any external information) and external factors (such as future policies and weather/climate forecast). Stakeholders' decision regarding how much water they need is usually not entirely rational in the real-world cases, so it is not quite suitable to model their decisions with a centralized (top-down) approach that assume everyone in a watershed follow the same order or pursue the same objective. Agent-based modeling (ABM) uses a decentralized approach (bottom-up) that allow each stakeholder to make his/her own decision based on his/her own objective and the belief of information acquired. In this study, we develop an ABM which incorporates the psychological human decision process by the theory of risk perception. The theory of risk perception quantifies human behaviors and decisions uncertainties using two sequential methodologies: the Bayesian Inference and the Cost-Loss Problem. The developed ABM is coupled with a regulation-based water system model: Riverware (RW) to evaluate different human decision uncertainties in water resources management. The San Juan River Basin in New Mexico (Figure 1) is chosen as a case study area, while we define 19 major irrigation districts as water use agents and their primary decision is to decide the irrigated area on an annual basis. This decision will be affected by three external factors: 1) upstream precipitation forecast (potential amount of water availability), 2) violation of the downstream minimum flow (required to support ecosystems), and 3) enforcement of a shortage sharing plan (a policy that is currently undertaken in the region for drought years). Three beliefs (as internal factors) that correspond to these three external factors will also be considered in the modeling framework. The objective of this study is to use the two-way coupling between ABM and RW to mimic how stakeholders' uncertain decisions that have been made through the theory of risk perception will affect local and basin-wide water uses.

Management of complex abdominal wall defects associated with penetrating abdominal trauma.

PubMed

Arul, G Suren; Sonka, B J; Lundy, J B; Rickard, R F; Jeffery, S L A

2015-03-01

The paradigm of Damage Control Surgery (DCS) has radically improved the management of abdominal trauma, but less well described are the options for managing the abdominal wall itself in an austere environment. This article describes a series of patients with complex abdominal wall problems managed at the UK-led Role 3 Medical Treatment Facility (MTF) in Camp Bastion, Afghanistan. Contemporaneous review of a series of patients with complex abdominal wall injuries who presented to the Role 3 MTF between July and November 2012. Five patients with penetrating abdominal trauma associated with significant damage to the abdominal wall were included. All patients were managed using DCS principles, leaving the abdominal wall open at the end of the first procedure. Subsequent management of the abdominal wall was determined by a multidisciplinary team of general and plastic surgeons, intensivists and specialist nurses. The principles of management identified included minimising tissue loss on initial laparotomy by joining adjacent wounds and marginal debridement of dead tissue; contraction of the abdominal wall was minimised by using topical negative pressure dressing and dermal-holding sutures. Definitive closure was timed to allow oedema to settle and sepsis to be controlled. Closure techniques include delayed primary closure with traction sutures, components separation, and mesh closure with skin grafting. A daily multidisciplinary team discussion was invaluable for optimal decision making regarding the most appropriate means of abdominal closure. Dermal-holding sutures were particularly useful in preventing myostatic contraction of the abdominal wall. A simple flow chart was developed to aid decision making in these patients. This flow chart may prove especially useful in a resource-limited environment in which returning months or years later for closure of a large ventral hernia may not be possible. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Ending on a positive: Examining the role of safety leadership decisions, behaviours and actions in a safety critical situation.

PubMed

Donovan, Sarah-Louise; Salmon, Paul M; Horberry, Timothy; Lenné, Michael G

2018-01-01

Safety leadership is an important factor in supporting safe performance in the workplace. The present case study examined the role of safety leadership during the Bingham Canyon Mine high-wall failure, a significant mining incident in which no fatalities or injuries were incurred. The Critical Decision Method (CDM) was used in conjunction with a self-reporting approach to examine safety leadership in terms of decisions, behaviours and actions that contributed to the incidents' safe outcome. Mapping the analysis onto Rasmussen's Risk Management Framework (Rasmussen, 1997), the findings demonstrate clear links between safety leadership decisions, and emergent behaviours and actions across the work system. Communication and engagement based decisions featured most prominently, and were linked to different leadership practices across the work system. Further, a core sub-set of CDM decision elements were linked to the open flow and exchange of information across the work system, which was critical to supporting the safe outcome. The findings provide practical implications for the development of safety leadership capability to support safety within the mining industry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

2017-04-01

Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on the PROMETHEE II outranking method. Future work on the SASSCAL DSS will entail automation of this process, as well as its application to other hydrological models and land-use and/or climate change scenarios.

Mapping debris flow susceptibility using analytical network process in Kodaikkanal Hills, Tamil Nadu (India)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sujatha, Evangelin Ramani; Sridhar, Venkataramana

2017-12-01

Rapid debris flows, a mixture of unconsolidated sediments and water travelling at speeds > 10 m/s are the most destructive water related mass movements that affect hill and mountain regions. The predisposing factors setting the stage for the event are the availability of materials, type of materials, stream power, slope gradient, aspect and curvature, lithology, land use and land cover, lineament density, and drainage. Rainfall is the most common triggering factor that causes debris flow in the Palar subwatershed and seismicity is not considered as it is a stable continental region and moderate seismic zone. Also, there are no records of major seismic activities in the past. In this study, one of the less explored heuristic methods known as the analytical network process (ANP) is used to map the spatial propensity of debris flow. This method is based on top-down decision model and is a multi-criteria, decision-making tool that translates subjective assessment of relative importance to weights or scores and is implemented in the Palar subwatershed which is part of the Western Ghats in southern India. The results suggest that the factors influencing debris flow susceptibility in this region are the availability of material on the slope, peak flow, gradient of the slope, land use and land cover, and proximity to streams. Among all, peak discharge is identified as the chief factor causing debris flow. The use of micro-scale watersheds demonstrated in this study to develop the susceptibility map can be very effective for local level planning and land management.

Assessing the Value of Information of Geophysical Data For Groundwater Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trainor, W. J.; Caers, J. K.; Mukerji, T.; Auken, E.; Knight, R. J.

2008-12-01

Effective groundwater management requires hydrogeologic models informed by various data sources. The long-term goal of our research is to develop methodologies that quantify the value of information (VOI) of geophysical data for water managers. We present an initial sensitivity study on assessing the reliability of airborne electro-magnetic (EM) data for detecting channel orientation. The reliability results are used to calculate VOI regarding decisions of artificial recharge to mitigate seawater intrusion. To demonstrate how a hydrogeologic problem can be framed in decision analysis terms, a hypothetical example is built, where water managers are considering artificial recharge to remediate seawater intrusion. Is the cost of recharge justified given the large uncertainty of subsurface heterogeneity that may interfere in a successful recharge? Thus, the decision is should recharge be performed, and if yes, where should recharge wells be located? This decision is difficult because of the large uncertainty of the aquifer heterogeneity that influences flow. The expected value of all possible outcomes to the decision without gathering additional EM information is the prior value VPRIOR. The value of information (VOI) is calculated as the expected gain in value after including the relevant new information, or the difference between the value after a free experiment (VFE) and the value prior (VPRIOR): VOI = VFE - VPRIOR Airborne EM has been used to detect confining clay layers and flow barriers. However, geophysical information rarely identifies the subsurface perfectly. Many challenges impact data quality and the resulting models (interpretation uncertainty). To evaluate how well airborne EM data detect the orientation of subsurface channel systems, 125 alternative binary, fluvial lithology models are generated, each categorized into one of three subsurface scenarios: northwest, southwest and mixed channel orientation. Using rock property relations, the lithology models are converted into electrical resistivity models for EM forward modeling, to generate time-domain EM data. Noise is added to the late times of the EM data to better represent typical airborne acquisition. Inversions are performed to obtain 125 inverted resistivity images. From the images, we calculate the angle of maximum spatial correlation at every cell, and compare it with the truth - the original lithology model. These synthetic models serve as a proxy to estimate misclassification probabilities of channel orientation from actual EM data. The misclassification probabilities are then used in the VOI calculations. Results are presented demonstrating how the reliability measure and the pumping schedule can impact VOI. Lastly, reliability and VOI are calculated and compared for land-based EM data, which has different spatial sampling and resolution than air-borne data.

Inventory decision in a closed-loop supply chain with inspection, sorting, and waste disposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwicahyani, A. R.; Jauhari, W. A.; Kurdhi, N. A.

2016-02-01

The study of returned item inventory management in a closed-loop supply chain system has become an important issue in recent years. So far, investigations about inventory decision making in a closed-loop supply chain system have been confined to traditional forward and reverse oriented material flow supply chain. In this study, we propose an integrated inventory model consisting a supplier, a manufacturer, and a retailer where the manufacturer inspects all of the returned items collected from the customers and classifies them as recoverable or waste. Returned items that recovered through the remanufacturing process and the newly manufactured products are then used to meet the demand of the retailer. However, some recovered items which are not comparable to the ones in quality, classified as refurbished items, are sold to a secondary market at a reduced price. This study also suggests that the flow of returned items is controlled by a decision variable, namely an acceptance quality level of recoverable item in the system. We apply multiple remanufacturing cycle and multiple production cycle policy to the proposed model and give the corresponding iterative procedure to determine the optimal solutions. Further, numerical examples are presented for illustrative purpose.

Mathematical models frame environmental dispute [Review of the article Useless arithmetic: Ten points to ponder when using mathematical models in environmental decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamb, Berton Lee; Burkardt, Nina

2008-01-01

When Linda Pilkey- Jarvis and Orrin Pilkey state in their article, "Useless Arithmetic," that "mathematical models are simplified, generalized representations of a process or system," they probably do not mean to imply that these models are simple. Rather, the models are simpler than nature and that is the heart of the problem with predictive models. We have had a long professional association with the developers and users of one of these simplifications of nature in the form of a mathematical model known as Physical Habitat Simulation (PHABSIM), which is part of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM). The IFIM is a suite of techniques, including PHABSIM, that allows the analyst to incorporate hydrology , hydraulics, habitat, water quality, stream temperature, and other variables into a tradeoff analysis that decision makers can use to design a flow regime to meet management objectives (Stalnaker et al. 1995). Although we are not the developers of the IFIM, we have worked with those who did design it, and we have tried to understand how the IFIM and PHABSIM are actually used in decision making (King, Burkardt, and Clark 2006; Lamb 1989).

Adaptive management of ecosystem services across different land use regimes.

PubMed

Ruhl, J B

2016-12-01

Using adaptive management to manage desired flows of ecosystem services may seem on the surface to be a good fit, but many social, economic, environmental, legal, and political factors influence how good a fit. One strongly influential factor is the land use regime within which the profile of ecosystem services is being managed. Shaped largely by legal mandates, market forces, and social and cultural practices, different land use regimes present different opportunities for and constraints on goals for ecosystem services and pose different decision making environments. Even where all other conditions appear amenable to using adaptive management, therefore, it is essential to consider the constraining (or liberating) effects of different land use regimes when deciding whether to adopt adaptive management to achieve those goals and, if so, how to implement it. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bridging groundwater models and decision support with a Bayesian network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, Michael N.; Masterson, John P.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Thieler, E. Robert

2013-01-01

Resource managers need to make decisions to plan for future environmental conditions, particularly sea level rise, in the face of substantial uncertainty. Many interacting processes factor in to the decisions they face. Advances in process models and the quantification of uncertainty have made models a valuable tool for this purpose. Long-simulation runtimes and, often, numerical instability make linking process models impractical in many cases. A method for emulating the important connections between model input and forecasts, while propagating uncertainty, has the potential to provide a bridge between complicated numerical process models and the efficiency and stability needed for decision making. We explore this using a Bayesian network (BN) to emulate a groundwater flow model. We expand on previous approaches to validating a BN by calculating forecasting skill using cross validation of a groundwater model of Assateague Island in Virginia and Maryland, USA. This BN emulation was shown to capture the important groundwater-flow characteristics and uncertainty of the groundwater system because of its connection to island morphology and sea level. Forecast power metrics associated with the validation of multiple alternative BN designs guided the selection of an optimal level of BN complexity. Assateague island is an ideal test case for exploring a forecasting tool based on current conditions because the unique hydrogeomorphological variability of the island includes a range of settings indicative of past, current, and future conditions. The resulting BN is a valuable tool for exploring the response of groundwater conditions to sea level rise in decision support.

Disaster waste management in Italy: Analysis of recent case studies.

PubMed

Gabrielli, Francesco; Amato, Alessia; Balducci, Susanna; Magi Galluzzi, Lorenzo; Beolchini, Francesca

2018-01-01

The geomorphology of the Italian territory causes the incidence of many disasters like earthquakes and floods, with the consequent production of large volumes of waste. The management of such huge flows, produced in a very short time, may have a high impact on the whole emergency response. Moreover, historical data related to disaster waste management are often not easily accessible; on the other hand, the availability of data concerning previous events could support the emergency managers, that have to take a decision in a very short time. In this context, the present paper analyses four relevant recent case studies in Italy, dealing with disaster waste management after geologic and hydrologic natural events. Significant differences have been observed in the quantity and types of generated wastes, and, also, in the management approach. Such differences are mainly associated with the kind of disaster (i.e. earthquake vs. flood), to the geographical location (i.e. internal vs. coastal area), to the urbanisation level (i.e. industrial vs. urban). The study allowed the identification of both strengths and weaknesses of the applied waste management strategies, that represent "lessons to learn" for future scenarios. Even though it deals with Italian case studies, this manuscript may have a high impact also at international level, making available for the first-time emergency waste management data, that are considered an indispensable support for decision makers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advancements in Risk-Informed Performance-Based Asset Management for Commercial Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liming, James K.; Ravindra, Mayasandra K.

2006-07-01

Over the past several years, ABSG Consulting Inc. (ABS Consulting) and the South Texas Project Nuclear Operating Company (STPNOC) have developed a decision support process and associated software for risk-informed, performance-based asset management (RIPBAM) of nuclear power plant facilities. RIPBAM applies probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) tools and techniques in the realm of plant physical and financial asset management. The RIPBAM process applies a tiered set of models and supporting performance measures (or metrics) that can ultimately be applied to support decisions affecting the allocation and management of plant resources (e.g., funding, staffing, scheduling, etc.). In general, the ultimate goal ofmore » the RIPBAM process is to continually support decision-making to maximize a facility's net present value (NPV) and long-term profitability for its owners. While the initial applications of RIPBAM have been for nuclear power stations, the methodology can easily be adapted to other types of power station or complex facility decision-making support. RIPBAM can also be designed to focus on performance metrics other than NPV and profitability (e.g., mission reliability, operational availability, probability of mission success per dollar invested, etc.). Recent advancements in the RIPBAM process focus on expanding the scope of previous RIPBAM applications to include not only operations, maintenance, and safety issues, but also broader risk perception components affecting plant owner (stockholder), operator, and regulator biases. Conceptually, RIPBAM is a comprehensive risk-informed cash flow model for decision support. It originated as a tool to help manage plant refueling outage scheduling, and was later expanded to include the full spectrum of operations and maintenance decision support. However, it differs from conventional business modeling tools in that it employs a systems engineering approach with broadly based probabilistic analysis of organizational 'value streams'. The scope of value stream inclusion in the process can be established by the user, but in its broadest applications, RIPBAM can be used to address how risk perceptions of plant owners and regulators are impacted by plant performance. Plant staffs can expand and refine RIPBAM models scope via a phased program of activities over time. This paper shows how the multi-metric uncertainty analysis feature of RIPBAM can apply a wide spectrum of decision-influencing factors to support decisions designed to maximize the probability of achieving, maintaining, and improving upon plant goals and objectives. In this paper, the authors show how this approach can be extremely valuable to plant owners and operators in supporting plant value-impacting decision-making processes. (authors)« less

Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations - An Opportunity to Improve Water Supply Reliability Lake Mendocino Demonstration Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasperse, J.; Ralph, F. M.

2016-12-01

Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a management strategy that is gaining interest in the western United States as a means to improve the performance of reservoirs to provide more reliable water supply for municipal, agricultural, and environmental water needs as well as enhancing the flood protection capacity of reservoirs. Many surface water reservoirs were built decades ago and are operated in accordance with rules that were developed based on the best information at the time of construction. Over time there have been increasing stressors that impact effective reservoir operations including: increasing water demand; providing in-stream flows for habitat of aquatic species; and climate change. Few new reservoirs are being constructed, therefore there is motivation by water managers to more effectively operate existing reservoirs by optimizing operational rules under a decision framework that considers forecasting. The viability of FIRO is being investigated at Lake Mendocino in northern California. This facility is managed for flood protection by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) while the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA) is responsible for the management of the water supply pool. Reductions of reservoir inflow due to recent operational license conditions of an upstream hydroelectric facility coupled with highly variable precipitation (due to the significance of atmospheric rivers in the region) has led to difficulties in maintaining reservoir storage to meet stream flows for agricultural and municipal water users and to meet in-stream flow requirements for three salmonid species listed under the Endangered Species Act. The reduced water supply reliability of the reservoir has motivated water managers and scientists from local, state, and federal agencies to investigate whether FIRO could help address this challenge. This effort is led by a Steering Committee comprised of members from SCWA, Scripps-UC San Diego, USACE, NOAA, California Department of Water Resources, USGS, and Bureau of Reclamation. The partnership is involved with: conducting a preliminary viability assessment; evaluating operational strategies and decision support tools should FIRO be found to be viable; and coordinating research to support advances in new technology and improved forecasting skill.

Many-objective reservoir policy identification and refinement to reduce policy inertia and myopia in water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, M.; Herman, J. D.; Castelletti, A.; Reed, P.

2014-04-01

This study contributes a decision analytic framework to overcome policy inertia and myopia in complex river basin management contexts. The framework combines reservoir policy identification, many-objective optimization under uncertainty, and visual analytics to characterize current operations and discover key trade-offs between alternative policies for balancing competing demands and system uncertainties. The approach is demonstrated on the Conowingo Dam, located within the Lower Susquehanna River, USA. The Lower Susquehanna River is an interstate water body that has been subject to intensive water management efforts due to competing demands from urban water supply, atomic power plant cooling, hydropower production, and federally regulated environmental flows. We have identified a baseline operating policy for the Conowingo Dam that closely reproduces the dynamics of current releases and flows for the Lower Susquehanna and thus can be used to represent the preferences structure guiding current operations. Starting from this baseline policy, our proposed decision analytic framework then combines evolutionary many-objective optimization with visual analytics to discover new operating policies that better balance the trade-offs within the Lower Susquehanna. Our results confirm that the baseline operating policy, which only considers deterministic historical inflows, significantly overestimates the system's reliability in meeting the reservoir's competing demands. Our proposed framework removes this bias by successfully identifying alternative reservoir policies that are more robust to hydroclimatic uncertainties while also better addressing the trade-offs across the Conowingo Dam's multisector services.

Streamflow alteration and habitat ramifications for a threatened fish species in the Central United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.; Eng, Kenny; Carlisle, Daren M.; Wolock, David M.

2017-01-01

In the Central United States, the Arkansas darter (Etheostoma cragini) is listed as a threatened fish species by the State of Kansas. Survival of the darter is threatened by loss of habitat caused by changing streamflow conditions, in particular flow depletion. Future management of darter populations and habitats requires an understanding of streamflow conditions and how those conditions may have changed over time in response to natural and anthropogenic factors. In Kansas, streamflow alteration was assessed at 9 U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in 6 priority basins with no pronounced long-term trends in precipitation. The assessment was based on a comparison of observed (O) and predicted expected (E) reference conditions for 29 flow metrics. The O/E results indicated a likely or possible diminished flow condition in 2 basins; the primary cause of which is groundwater-level declines resulting from groundwater pumping for irrigated agriculture. In these 2 basins, habitat characteristics adversely affected by flow depletion may include stream connectivity, pools, and water temperature. The other 4 basins were minimally affected, or unaffected, by flow depletion and therefore may provide the best opportunity for preservation of darter habitat. Through the O/E analysis, anthropogenic streamflow alteration was quantified and the results will enable better-informed decisions pertaining to the future management of darters in Kansas.

Water and rock geochemistry, geologic cross sections, geochemical modeling, and groundwater flow modeling for identifying the source of groundwater to Montezuma Well, a natural spring in central Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Raymond H.; DeWitt, Ed; Wirt, Laurie; Arnold, L. Rick; Horton, John D.

2011-01-01

The National Park Service (NPS) seeks additional information to better understand the source(s) of groundwater and associated groundwater flow paths to Montezuma Well in Montezuma Castle National Monument, central Arizona. The source of water to Montezuma Well, a flowing sinkhole in a desert setting, is poorly understood. Water emerges from the middle limestone facies of the lacustrine Verde Formation, but the precise origin of the water and its travel path are largely unknown. Some have proposed artesian flow to Montezuma Well through the Supai Formation, which is exposed along the eastern margin of the Verde Valley and underlies the Verde Formation. The groundwater recharge zone likely lies above the floor of the Verde Valley somewhere to the north or east of Montezuma Well, where precipitation is more abundant. Additional data from groundwater, surface water, and bedrock geology are required for Montezuma Well and the surrounding region to test the current conceptual ideas, to provide new details on the groundwater flow in the area, and to assist in future management decisions. The results of this research will provide information for long-term water resource management and the protection of water rights.

AI techniques for optimizing multi-objective reservoir operation upon human and riverine ecosystem demands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Wen-Ping; Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Herricks, Edwin E.

2015-11-01

Flow regime is the key driver of the riverine ecology. This study proposes a novel hybrid methodology based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for quantifying riverine ecosystems requirements and delivering suitable flow regimes that sustain river and floodplain ecology through optimizing reservoir operation. This approach addresses issues to better fit riverine ecosystem requirements with existing human demands. We first explored and characterized the relationship between flow regimes and fish communities through a hybrid artificial neural network (ANN). Then the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) was established for river flow management over the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. The ecosystem requirement took the form of maximizing fish diversity, which could be estimated by the hybrid ANN. The human requirement was to provide a higher satisfaction degree of water supply. The results demonstrated that the proposed methodology could offer a number of diversified alternative strategies for reservoir operation and improve reservoir operational strategies producing downstream flows that could meet both human and ecosystem needs. Applications that make this methodology attractive to water resources managers benefit from the wide spread of Pareto-front (optimal) solutions allowing decision makers to easily determine the best compromise through the trade-off between reservoir operational strategies for human and ecosystem needs.

Science to Manage a Very Rare Fish in a Very Large River - Pallid Sturgeon in the Missouri River, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, R. B.; Colvin, M. E.; Marmorek, D.; Randall, M.

2017-12-01

The Missouri River Recovery Program (MRRP) seeks to revise river-management strategies to avoid jeopardizing the existence of three species: pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), interior least tern (Sterna antillarum)), and piping plover (Charadrius melodus). Managing the river to maintain populations of the two birds (terns and plovers) is relatively straightforward: reproductive success can be modeled with some certainty as a direct, increasing function of exposed sandbar area. In contrast, the pallid sturgeon inhabits the benthic zone of a deep, turbid river and many parts of its complex life history are not directly observable. Hence, pervasive uncertainties exist about what factors are limiting population growth and what management actions may reverse population declines. These uncertainties are being addressed by the MRRP through a multi-step process. The first step was an Effects Analysis (EA), which: documented what is known and unknown about the river and the species; documented quality and quantity of existing information; used an expert-driven process to develop conceptual ecological models and to prioritize management hypotheses; and developed quantitative models linking management actions (flows, channel reconfigurations, and stocking) to population responses. The EA led to development of a science and adaptive-management plan with prioritized allocation of investment among 4 levels of effort ranging from fundamental research to full implementation. The plan includes learning from robust, hypothesis-driven effectiveness monitoring for all actions, with statistically sound experimental designs, multiple metrics, and explicit decision criteria to guide management. Finally, the science plan has been fully integrated with a new adaptive-management structure that links science to decision makers. The reinvigorated investment in science stems from the understanding that costly river-management decisions are not socially or politically supportable without better understanding of how this endangered fish will respond. While some hypotheses can be evaluated without actually implementing management actions in the river, assessing the effectiveness of other forms of habitat restoration requires in-river implementation within a rigorous experimental design.

Integrating Hydrologic and Water Quality Models as a Decision Support Tool for Implementation of Low Impact Development in a Coastal Urban Watershed under Climate Variability and Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, N. B.

2016-12-01

Many countries concern about development and redevelopment efforts in urban regions to reduce the flood risk by considering hazards such as high-tide events, storm surge, flash floods, stormwater runoff, and impacts of sea level rise. Combining these present and future hazards with vulnerable characteristics found throughout coastal communities such as majority low-lying areas and increasing urban development, create scenarios for increasing exposure of flood hazard. As such, the most vulnerable areas require adaptation strategies and mitigation actions for flood hazard management. In addition, in the U.S., Numeric Nutrient Criteria (NNC) are a critical tool for protecting and restoring the designated uses of a waterbody with regard to nitrogen and phosphorus pollution. Strategies such as low impact development (LID) have been promoted in recent years as an alternative to traditional stormwater management and drainage to control both flooding and water quality impact. LID utilizes decentralized multifunctional site designs and incorporates on-site storm water management practices rather than conventional storm water management approaches that divert flow toward centralized facilities. How to integrate hydrologic and water quality models to achieve the decision support becomes a challenge. The Cross Bayou Watershed of Pinellas County in Tampa Bay, a highly urbanized coastal watershed, is utilized as a case study due to its sensitivity to flood hazards and water quality management within the watershed. This study will aid the County, as a decision maker, to implement its stormwater management policy and honor recent NNC state policy via demonstration of an integrated hydrologic and water quality model, including the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing Model v.4 (ICPR4) and the BMPTRAIN model as a decision support tool. The ICPR4 can be further coupled with the ADCIRC/SWAN model to reflect the storm surge and seal level rise in coastal regions.

Quantifying water requirements of riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia: Implications for the management of environmental flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doody, Tanya M.; Colloff, Matthew J.; Davies, Micah; Koul, Vijay; Benyon, Richard G.; Nagler, Pamela L.

2015-01-01

Water resource development and drought have altered river flow regimes, increasing average flood return intervals across floodplains in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, causing health declines in riparian river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) forests and woodlands. Environmental flow allocations helped to alleviate water stress during the recent Millennium Drought (1997–2010), however, quantification of the flood frequency required to support healthy E. camaldulensis communities is still needed. We quantified water requirements of E. camaldulensis for two years across a flood gradient (trees inundated at frequencies of 1:2, 1:5 and 1:10 years) at Yanga National Park, New South Wales to help inform management decision-making and design of environmental flows. Sap flow, evaporative losses and soil moisture measurements were used to determine transpiration, evapotranspiration and plant-available soil water before and after flooding. A formula was developed using plant-available soil water post-flooding and average annual rainfall, to estimate maintenance time of soil water reserves in each flood frequency zone. Results indicated that soil water reserves could sustain 1:2 and 1:5 trees for 15 months and six years, respectively. Trees regulated their transpiration rates, allowing them to persist within their flood frequency zone, and showed reduction in active sapwood area and transpiration rates when flood frequencies exceeded 1:2 years. A leaf area index of 0.5 was identified as a potential threshold indicator of severe drought stress. Our results suggest environmental water managers may have greater flexibility to adaptively manage floodplains in order to sustain E. camaldulensis forests and woodlands than has been appreciated hitherto.

A brief history of decision making.

PubMed

Buchanan, Leigh; O'Connell, Andrew

2006-01-01

Sometime around the middle of the past century, telephone executive Chester Barnard imported the term decision making from public administration into the business world. There it began to replace narrower terms, like "resource allocation" and "policy making," shifting the way managers thought about their role from continuous, Hamlet-like deliberation toward a crisp series of conclusions reached and actions taken. Yet, decision making is, of course, a broad and ancient human pursuit, flowing back to a time when people sought guidance from the stars. From those earliest days, we have strived to invent better tools for the purpose, from the Hindu-Arabic systems for numbering and algebra, to Aristotle's systematic empiricism, to friar Occam's advances in logic, to Francis Bacon's inductive reasoning, to Descartes's application of the scientific method. A growing sophistication with managing risk, along with a nuanced understanding of human behavior and advances in technology that support and mimic cognitive processes, has improved decision making in many situations. Even so, the history of decision-making strategies--captured in this time line and examined in the four accompanying essays on risk, group dynamics, technology, and instinct--has not marched steadily toward perfect rationalism. Twentieth-century theorists showed that the costs of acquiring information lead executives to make do with only good-enough decisions. Worse, people decide against their own economic interests even when they know better. And in the absence of emotion, it's impossible to make any decisions at all. Erroneous framing, bounded awareness, excessive optimism: The debunking of Descartes's rational man threatens to swamp our confidence in our choices. Is it really surprising, then, that even as technology dramatically increases our access to information, Malcolm Gladwell extols the virtues of gut decisions made, literally, in the blink of an eye?

Disaster Response Modeling Through Discrete-Event Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jeffrey; Gilmer, Graham

2012-01-01

Organizations today are required to plan against a rapidly changing, high-cost environment. This is especially true for first responders to disasters and other incidents, where critical decisions must be made in a timely manner to save lives and resources. Discrete-event simulations enable organizations to make better decisions by visualizing complex processes and the impact of proposed changes before they are implemented. A discrete-event simulation using Simio software has been developed to effectively analyze and quantify the imagery capabilities of domestic aviation resources conducting relief missions. This approach has helped synthesize large amounts of data to better visualize process flows, manage resources, and pinpoint capability gaps and shortfalls in disaster response scenarios. Simulation outputs and results have supported decision makers in the understanding of high risk locations, key resource placement, and the effectiveness of proposed improvements.

Holes in the Bathtub: Water Table Dependent Services and Threshold Behavior in an Economic Model of Groundwater Extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirk-lawlor, N. E.; Edwards, E. C.

2012-12-01

In many groundwater systems, the height of the water table must be above certain thresholds for some types of surface flow to exist. Examples of flows that depend on water table elevation include groundwater baseflow to river systems, groundwater flow to wetland systems, and flow to springs. Meeting many of the goals of sustainable water resource management requires maintaining these flows at certain rates. Water resource management decisions invariably involve weighing tradeoffs between different possible usage regimes and the economic consequences of potential management choices are an important factor in these tradeoffs. Policies based on sustainability may have a social cost from forgoing present income. This loss of income may be worth bearing, but should be well understood and carefully considered. Traditionally, the economic theory of groundwater exploitation has relied on the assumption of a single-cell or "bathtub" aquifer model, which offers a simple means to examine complex interactions between water user and hydrologic system behavior. However, such a model assumes a closed system and does not allow for the simulation of groundwater outflows that depend on water table elevation (e.g. baseflow, springs, wetlands), even though those outflows have value. We modify the traditional single-cell aquifer model by allowing for outflows when the water table is above certain threshold elevations. These thresholds behave similarly to holes in a bathtub, where the outflow is a positive function of the height of the water table above the threshold and the outflow is lost when the water table drops below the threshold. We find important economic consequences to this representation of the groundwater system. The economic value of services provided by threshold-dependent outflows (including non-market value), such as ecosystem services, can be incorporated. The value of services provided by these flows may warrant maintaining the water table at higher levels than would be the case if only the benefits and costs of groundwater extraction were considered. This hole-in-the-bathtub model can motivate managers to consider the costs of the loss of such flows, which may be very costly (in terms of loss of environmental services, loss of access to surface water, etc.). Alternatively, the decision to maintain the water table at an elevation that sustains a threshold-dependent outflow may cause income loss from the imposition of lower groundwater extraction rates. Weighing the benefits of maintaining threshold-dependent flows (including non-market benefits) with the net benefits of increased extraction is an important step in a prudent water management framework. To illustrate the usefulness of the modified model in a joint economic-hydrologic context, we provide a short case study of the Ojos de San Pedro area of the Rio Loa Basin in northern Chile. Evidence indicates that a wetland and lacustrine environment and a village dependent on that environment disappeared due to water extraction for industrial use. We demonstrate how the key features of the model provide important insight in understanding the tradeoffs that were made in this case.

Issues in system boundary definition for substance flow analysis: the case of nitrogen cycle management in Catalonia.

PubMed

Bartrolí, J; Martin, M J; Rigola, M

2001-10-16

The great complexity of the nitrogen cycle, including anthropogenic contributions, makes it necessary to carry out local studies, which allow us to identify the specific cause-effect links in a particular society. Models of local societies that are based on methods such as Substance Flow Analysis (SFA), which study and characterise the performance of metabolic exchanges between human society and the environment, are a useful tools for directing local policy towards sustainable management of the nitrogen cycle. In this paper, the selection of geographical boundaries for SFA application is discussed. Data availability and accuracy, and the possibility of linking the results with instructions for decision making, are critical aspects for proper scale selection. The experience obtained in the construction of the model for Catalonia is used to draw attention to the difficulties found in regional studies.

Developing a Framework to Link Catchment Modelling tools to Decision Support Systems for Catchment Management and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Russell; Owen, Gareth

2015-04-01

Over the past few years a series of catchment monitoring studies in the UK have developed a wide range of tools to enable managers and planners to make informed decisions to target several key outcomes. These outcomes include the mitigation of diffuse pollution and the reduction of flood risk. Good progress has been but additional steps are still required to link together more detailed models that represent catchment processes with the decision support systems (often termed matrices; i.e. DSMs) which form the basis of these planning and management tools. Examples include: (i) the FARM tools developed by the PROACTIVE team at Newcastle University to assess different catchment management options for mitigating against flooding events, (ii) TOPMANAGE, a suite of algorithms that link with high resolution DEMs to enable surface flow pathways, having the potential to be mitigated by Natural Flood Management (NFM) features (in order to target diffuse pollution due to nutrients and sediments) to be identified. To date, these DSMs have not been underpinned by models that can be run in real-time to quantify the benefits in terms of measurable reductions in flood or nutrient pollution risks. Their use has therefore been mostly as qualitative assessment tools. This study aims to adapt an existing spreadsheet-based model, the CRAFT, in order for it to become fully coupled to a DSM approach. Previous catchment scale applications of the CRAFT have focussed on meso-scale studies where any management interventions at a local scale are unlikely to be detectable at the monitoring point (the catchment outlet). The model has however been reasonably successful in identifying potential flow and transport pathways that link the headwater subcatchments to the outlet. Furthermore, recent enhancements to the model enable features such as sedimentation ponds and lagoons that can trap and remove nutrients and sediments to be added, once data become available from different types of NFM features to parameterise these. The model can be used to investigate runoff attenuation (in this case primarily through a lagged routing term applied to surface runoff) as a result of implementing mitigation measures. However to be fully integrated within a DSM framework requires the CRAFT to be linked to a user-friendly interface that will allow the user to modify key parameters, preferably using a web-based expert system, which will be explored further.

Designing Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Support: A Cognitive Engineering Enterprise.

PubMed

Militello, Laura G; Saleem, Jason J; Borders, Morgan R; Sushereba, Christen E; Haverkamp, Donald; Wolf, Steven P; Doebbeling, Bradley N

2016-03-01

Adoption of clinical decision support has been limited. Important barriers include an emphasis on algorithmic approaches to decision support that do not align well with clinical work flow and human decision strategies, and the expense and challenge of developing, implementing, and refining decision support features in existing electronic health records (EHRs). We applied decision-centered design to create a modular software application to support physicians in managing and tracking colorectal cancer screening. Using decision-centered design facilitates a thorough understanding of cognitive support requirements from an end user perspective as a foundation for design. In this project, we used an iterative design process, including ethnographic observation and cognitive task analysis, to move from an initial design concept to a working modular software application called the Screening & Surveillance App. The beta version is tailored to work with the Veterans Health Administration's EHR Computerized Patient Record System (CPRS). Primary care providers using the beta version Screening & Surveillance App more accurately answered questions about patients and found relevant information more quickly compared to those using CPRS alone. Primary care providers also reported reduced mental effort and rated the Screening & Surveillance App positively for usability.

Designing Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Support: A Cognitive Engineering Enterprise

PubMed Central

Militello, Laura G.; Saleem, Jason J.; Borders, Morgan R.; Sushereba, Christen E.; Haverkamp, Donald; Wolf, Steven P.; Doebbeling, Bradley N.

2016-01-01

Adoption of clinical decision support has been limited. Important barriers include an emphasis on algorithmic approaches to decision support that do not align well with clinical work flow and human decision strategies, and the expense and challenge of developing, implementing, and refining decision support features in existing electronic health records (EHRs). We applied decision-centered design to create a modular software application to support physicians in managing and tracking colorectal cancer screening. Using decision-centered design facilitates a thorough understanding of cognitive support requirements from an end user perspective as a foundation for design. In this project, we used an iterative design process, including ethnographic observation and cognitive task analysis, to move from an initial design concept to a working modular software application called the Screening & Surveillance App. The beta version is tailored to work with the Veterans Health Administration’s EHR Computerized Patient Record System (CPRS). Primary care providers using the beta version Screening & Surveillance App more accurately answered questions about patients and found relevant information more quickly compared to those using CPRS alone. Primary care providers also reported reduced mental effort and rated the Screening & Surveillance App positively for usability. PMID:26973441

SRM Internal Flow Tests and Computational Fluid Dynamic Analysis. Volume 4; Cold Flow Analyses and CFD Analysis Capability Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

An evaluation of the effect of model inlet air temperature drift during a test run was performed to aid in the decision on the need for and/or the schedule for including heaters in the SRMAFTE. The Sverdrup acceptance test data was used to determine the drift in air temperature during runs over the entire range of delivered flow rates and pressures. The effect of this temperature drift on the model Reynolds number was also calculated. It was concluded from this study that a 2% change in absolute temperature during a test run could be adequately accounted for by the data analysis program. A handout package of these results was prepared and presented to ED35 management.

The economic value of the flow regulation environmental service in a Brazilian urban watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Guilherme F.; de Souza, Verônica B. F. S.; Moraes, Natália V.

2017-11-01

Urban flood management have often focused either on the capacity expansion of drainage systems or on artificial detention storage. While flood control should take part early on urban planning, not enough is known to guide such plans and provide incentive to land use decisions that minimize the vulnerability to localized floods. In this paper, we offer a broader perspective on flood protection, by treating the original hydrologic flow regulation as an environmental service, and exploring how the value of this environmental service drives economic land use decisions that convert original (permeable) land into urbanized (impermeable). We investigate the relationship between land use decisions and their hydrologic consequences explicitly, and use this relationship to simulate resulting land use scenarios depending on the value attached to the environmental service of flow regulation. Rainfall-runoff simulation model results are combined to an optimization model based on two-stage stochastic programming approach to model economic land use decisions. The objective function maximizes the total expected land use benefit in an urban area, considering the opportunity cost of permeable areas in the first stage and the resulting loss of the environmental service of flow regulation on the second stage, under several probable hydrological events. A watershed in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, is used to demonstrate the approach. Different values attached to the environmental service were tested, from zero to higher than the opportunity cost of land, and artificial detention infrastructure was included to calculate the resulting land use change and the loss in the environmental service value. Results indicate that by valuing the environmental service loss and discounting it from the economic benefits of land use, alternative solutions to land use are found, with decreased peak flows and lower flood frequency. Combined solutions including structural and non-structural techniques provide more cost effective results, avoiding both the depletion of the environmental service and the high opportunity cost associated to valuable commercial urban areas. Urban development under such premises will be more resilient and adapted to local flooding, instead of relying on increasingly expensive infrastructure.

Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security - assessing trade-offs for reservoir operation and irrigation investment in Kenya's Tana basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurford, A. P.; Harou, J. J.

2014-01-01

Competition for water between key economic sectors and the environment means agreeing on allocation is challenging. Managing releases from the three major dams in Kenya's Tana River basin with its 4.4 million inhabitants, 567 MW of installed hydropower capacity, 33 000 ha of irrigation and ecologically important wetlands and forests is a pertinent example. This research seeks to identify and help decision-makers visualise reservoir management strategies which result in the best possible (Pareto-optimal) allocation of benefits between sectors. Secondly we seek to show how trade-offs between achievable benefits shift with the implementation of new proposed rice, cotton and biofuel irrigation projects. To identify the Pareto-optimal trade-offs we link a water resources management model to a multi-criteria search algorithm. The decisions or "levers" of the management problem are volume dependent release rules for the three major dams and extent of investment in new irrigation schemes. These decisions are optimised for objectives covering provision of water supply and irrigation, energy generation and maintenance of ecosystem services which underpin tourism and local livelihoods. Visual analytic plots allow decision makers to assess multi-reservoir rule-sets by understanding their impacts on different beneficiaries. Results quantify how economic gains from proposed irrigation schemes trade-off against disturbance of the flow regime which supports ecosystem services. Full implementation of the proposed schemes is shown to be Pareto-optimal, but at high environmental and social cost. The clarity and comprehensiveness of "best-case" trade-off analysis is a useful vantage point from which to tackle the interdependence and complexity of water-energy-food "nexus" challenges.

A Multi-criteria Decision Analysis System for Prioritizing Sites and Types of Low Impact Development Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jae Yeol; Chung, Eun-Sung

2017-04-01

This study developed a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to prioritize sites and types of low impact development (LID) practices. This framework was systemized as a web-based system coupled with the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Using the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), which is a type of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method, multiple types and sites of designated LID practices are prioritized. This system is named the Water Management Prioritization Module (WMPM) and is an improved version of the Water Management Analysis Module (WMAM) that automatically generates and simulates multiple scenarios of LID design and planning parameters for a single LID type. WMPM can simultaneously determine the priority of multiple LID types and sites. In this study, an infiltration trench and permeable pavement were considered for multiple sub-catchments in South Korea to demonstrate the WMPM procedures. The TOPSIS method was manually incorporated to select the vulnerable target sub-catchments and to prioritize the LID planning scenarios for multiple types and sites considering socio-economic, hydrologic and physical-geometric factors. In this application, the Delphi method and entropy theory were used to determine the subjective and objective weights, respectively. Comparing the ranks derived by this system, two sub-catchments, S16 and S4, out of 18 were considered to be the most suitable places for installing an infiltration trench and porous pavement to reduce the peak and total flow, respectively, considering both socio-economic factors and hydrological effectiveness. WMPM can help policy-makers to objectively develop urban water plans for sustainable development. Keywords: Low Impact Development, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, SWMM, TOPSIS, Water Management Prioritization Module (WMPM)

Determinants of corporate dividend policy in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lestari, H. S.

2018-01-01

This study aims to investigate the determinants factors that effect the dividend policy. The sample used in this research is manufacture companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and the period 2011 - 2015. There are independent variables such as earning, cash flow, free cash flow, debt, growth opportunities, investment opportunities, firm size, largest shareholder, firm risk, lagged dividend and dividend policy used as dependent variable. The study examines a total of 32 manufacture companies. After analyzing the data using the program software Eviews 9.0 by multiples regression analysis reveal that earning, cash flow, free cash flow, firm size, and lagged dividend have significant effect on dividend policy, whereas debt, growth opportunities, investment opportunities, largest shareholder, and firm risk have no significant effect on dividend policy. The results of this study are expected to be implemented by the financial managers in improving corporate profits and basic information as return on investment decisions.

Hydrogeology, hydrologic effects of development, and simulation of groundwater flow in the Borrego Valley, San Diego County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia C.; Stamos, Christina L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Wright, Michael T.; Burgess, Matthew K.; Sneed, Michelle; Brandt, Justin; Martin, Peter; Coes, Alissa L.

2015-11-24

This report documents and presents (1) an analysis of the conceptual model, (2) a description of the hydrologic features, (3) a compilation and analysis of water-quality data, (4) the measurement and analysis of land subsidence by using geophysical and remote sensing techniques, (5) the development and calibration of a two-dimensional borehole-groundwater-flow model to estimate aquifer hydraulic conductivities, (6) the development and calibration of a three-dimensional (3-D) integrated hydrologic flow model, (7) a water-availability analysis with respect to current climate variability and land use, and (8) potential future management scenarios. The integrated hydrologic model, referred to here as the “Borrego Valley Hydrologic Model” (BVHM), is a tool that can provide results with the accuracy needed for making water-management decisions, although potential future refinements and enhancements could further improve the level of spatial and temporal resolution and model accuracy. Because the model incorporates time-varying inflows and outflows, this tool can be used to evaluate the effects of temporal changes in recharge and pumping and to compare the relative effects of different water-management scenarios on the aquifer system. Overall, the development of the hydrogeologic and hydrologic models, data networks, and hydrologic analysis provides a basis for assessing surface and groundwater availability and potential water-resource management guidelines.

Application of an enhanced spill management information system to inland waterways.

PubMed

Camp, Janey S; LeBoeuf, Eugene J; Abkowitz, Mark D

2010-03-15

Spill response managers on inland waterways have indicated the need for an improved decision-support system, one that provides advanced modeling technology within a visual framework. Efforts to address these considerations led the authors to develop an enhanced version of the Spill Management Information System (SMIS 2.0). SMIS 2.0 represents a state-of-the-art 3D hydrodynamic and chemical spill modeling system tool that provides for improved predictive spill fate and transport capability, combined with a geographic information systems (GIS) spatial environment in which to communicate propagation risks and locate response resources. This paper focuses on the application of SMIS 2.0 in a case study of several spill scenarios involving the release of diesel fuel and trichloroethylene (TCE) that were simulated on the Kentucky Lake portion of the Tennessee River, each analyzed at low, average, and high flow conditions. A discussion of the decision-support implications of the model results is also included, as are suggestions for future enhancements to this evolving platform. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Use of multi-node wells in the Groundwater-Management Process of MODFLOW-2005 (GWM-2005)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ahlfeld, David P.; Barlow, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Many groundwater wells are open to multiple aquifers or to multiple intervals within a single aquifer. These types of wells can be represented in numerical simulations of groundwater flow by use of the Multi-Node Well (MNW) Packages developed for the U.S. Geological Survey’s MODFLOW model. However, previous versions of the Groundwater-Management (GWM) Process for MODFLOW did not allow the use of multi-node wells in groundwater-management formulations. This report describes modifications to the MODFLOW–2005 version of the GWM Process (GWM–2005) to provide for such use with the MNW2 Package. Multi-node wells can be incorporated into a management formulation as flow-rate decision variables for which optimal withdrawal or injection rates will be determined as part of the GWM–2005 solution process. In addition, the heads within multi-node wells can be used as head-type state variables, and, in that capacity, be included in the objective function or constraint set of a management formulation. Simple head bounds also can be defined to constrain water levels at multi-node wells. The report provides instructions for including multi-node wells in the GWM–2005 data-input files and a sample problem that demonstrates use of multi-node wells in a typical groundwater-management problem.

Psychosis during pregnancy: treatment considerations.

PubMed

Pinkofsky, H B

1997-09-01

The onset of psychosis during pregnancy presents several difficult management decisions and a careful risk-benefit analysis is required. Withholding antipsychotic treatment may produce more risks than benefits. Studies on neuroleptic teratogenicity are contradictory. Most of the commonly used neuroleptics exhibit a pregnancy risk of category C. Neuroleptic use during pregnancy may be associated with adverse effects in the pre- and postnatal period. These concerns include compromising uterine blood flow, post-partum neonatal sedation, and extrapyramidal signs expressed in the neonate. Each neuroleptic exhibits a unique pharmacokinetic profile. The antipsychotic properties and side effects considered most significant include sedation, half-life, hypotension, and apparent hydrophilicity. In this case study a decision to select molindone was based on these parameters.

TERSSE: Definition of the Total Earth Resources System for the Shuttle Era. Volume 5: Detailed system requirements: Two case studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Major resource management missions to be performed by the TERSSE are examined in order to develop an understanding of the form and function of a system designed to perform an operational mission. Factors discussed include: resource manager (user) functions, methods of performing their function, the information flows and information requirements embodied in their function, and the characteristics of the observation system which assists in the management of the resource involved. The missions selected for study are: world crop survey and land resources management. These missions are found to represent opposite ends of the TERSSE spectrum and to support the conclusion that different missions require different systems and must be analyzed in detail to permit proper system development decisions.

The Intelligent Technologies of Electronic Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xianyu

2017-08-01

Based upon the synopsis of system intelligence and information services, this paper puts forward the attributes and the logic structure of information service, sets forth intelligent technology framework of electronic information system, and presents a series of measures, such as optimizing business information flow, advancing data decision capability, improving information fusion precision, strengthening deep learning application and enhancing prognostic and health management, and demonstrates system operation effectiveness. This will benefit the enhancement of system intelligence.

Groundwater quality, age, and susceptibility and vulnerability to nitrate contamination with linkages to land use and groundwater flow, Upper Black Squirrel Creek Basin, Colorado, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wellman, Tristan P.; Rupert, Michael G.

2016-03-03

The results of this investigation offer the foundational information needed for developing best management practices to mitigate nitrate contamination, basic concepts on water quality to aid public education, and information to guide regulatory measures if policy makers determine this is warranted. Science-based decision making will require continued monitoring and analysis of water quality in the future.

Modeling Skill Growth and Decay in Edge Organizations: Near-Optimizing Knowledge and Power Flows (Phase Two)

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-06-01

cost to hold it. With respect to knowledge inventory, each policy exhibits both desirable and undesirable traits. JIT seeks to accrue knowledge...Management approach. Introduction and Motivation Edge organizations [1] can only achieve their putative effectiveness through the...EOQ) and cost analysis, as well as inventory doctrines of Just-In-Case (JIC), Just-In-Time ( JIT ), and make vs. buy decisions, we examined knowledge

Capital Budgeting Decisions with Post-Audit Information

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-08

estimates that were used during project selection. In similar fashion, this research introduces the equivalent sample size concept that permits the... equivalent sample size is extended to include the user’s prior beliefs. 4. For a management tool, the concepts for Cash Flow Control Charts are...Acoxxting Research , vol. 7, no. 2, Autumn 1969, pp. 215-244. [9] Gaynor, Edwin W., "Use of Control Charts in Cost Control ", National Association of Cost

Water Management Decisions within a Changing Hydrologic Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, D. L.

2013-12-01

Across the United States and around the world we are facing unprecedented demands on our surface and ground water. Increasing population demands coupled with maintaining water quality, supporting species and ecosystem services, distribution of supply, hydrologic variability associated with changing climatic conditions - all require us to look more rigorously at the intersection of policy, management and science. The water supply and hydroelectric constituencies has embraced the concept of Adaptive Management in balancing the needs of resources, people, economies and providing ecosystem support. In its infancy Adaptive Management was employed as a way to move forward on dam operation and reservoir management decisions while recognizing the unknowns of how up or downstream physical and biological elements of freshwater systems would respond. River science at the time was not mature or expansive enough to address the interrelated and complex impacts of the nuances of changing operations of dams. Adaptive Management, the concept, made good sense and has provided a framework to inform management and policy decisions while keeping the door open for integrating new knowledge into a management matrix - the essence of adaptation. The application of Adaptive Management principles has continued to expand as water management demands increase. The application and reality of the use of Adaptive Management has had variable success. In the United States we have over 25 federal agencies that have water in their mission statements. Combine this with 50 states with their own water management requirements, Native American Tribes, and countless watershed and local water supply constraints and you get a sense of the challenge associated with collaborating and addressing water management issues. Without having a set of national water objectives and goals (a National Water Policy) it is up to the collaboration and integration of the multiple water silos with appropriate science. It is within this context that river restoration and management case studies will be explored to evaluate opportunities, challenges, the process of integrating science-policy-management, and some perspectives on the possible options for building a water future. A water future that embraces the essence of Adaptive Management without using the concept as a convenient mechanism for avoiding having to make difficult decisions on water management. The review will include assessing the application of various tools including hydrologic and ecosystem models, experimental floods, channel-cleansing flows, manipulation of habitats, and seasonal allocation of water to provide flooding of estuary habitats and river mouths for water volume and water quality purposes.

Assessing climate change and socio-economic uncertainties in long term management of water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Dawson, Richard; Walsh, Claire; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Glenis, Vassilis

2015-04-01

Long term management of water resources is challenging for decision makers given the range of uncertainties that exist. Such uncertainties are a function of long term drivers of change, such as climate, environmental loadings, demography, land use and other socio economic drivers. Impacts of climate change on frequency of extreme events such as drought make it a serious threat to water resources and water security. The release of probabilistic climate information, such as the UKCP09 scenarios, provides improved understanding of some uncertainties in climate models. This has motivated a more rigorous approach to dealing with other uncertainties in order to understand the sensitivity of investment decisions to future uncertainty and identify adaptation options that are as far as possible robust. We have developed and coupled a system of models that includes a weather generator, simulations of catchment hydrology, demand for water and the water resource system. This integrated model has been applied in the Thames catchment which supplies the city of London, UK. This region is one of the driest in the UK and hence sensitive to water availability. In addition, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the UK and plays an important economic role. Key uncertainties in long term water resources in the Thames catchment, many of which result from earth system processes, are identified and quantified. The implications of these uncertainties are explored using a combination of uncertainty analysis and sensitivity testing. The analysis shows considerable uncertainty in future rainfall, river flow and consequently water resource. For example, results indicate that by the 2050s, low flow (Q95) in the Thames catchment will range from -44 to +9% compared with the control scenario (1970s). Consequently, by the 2050s the average number of drought days are expected to increase 4-6 times relative to the 1970s. Uncertainties associated with urban growth increase these risks further. Adaptation measures, such as new reservoirs can manage these risks to a certain extent, but our sensitivity testing demonstrates that they are less robust to future uncertainties than measures taken to reduce water demand. Keywords: Climate change, Uncertainty, Decision making, Drought, Risk, Water resources management.

Research on the theory and methodology of integrating GIS and MAS and its application in simulating of pedestrians flows in a crowd's activity centre of Shanghai metropolitan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Miaolong; Chen, Peng

2006-10-01

Based on the development trend of research on urban morphology and its evolution from macro scale to micro scale, a new tight-coupling integrating method of GIS and MAS has been discussed briefly in this paper. After analyzing the characteristics and mechanism of pedestrian's flows in a crowds' activity center in a metropolitan, a prototype and mathematical expression of pedestrian's flows simulation have been put forward in the paper. A few key expressions and techniques for treating the specific behaviors of pedestrians flows, especially how the individuals of the flows make a decision to follow a original designed direction, how to make a decision whether stop or change his movement and select a new direction when the individuals meet a obstacle have been explored and discussed in detail. Using some tools provided by general GIS systems (such as ArcGIS 9) and a few specific programming languages, a new software system integrating GIS and MAS applicable for simulating pedestrians flows in a crowd activity centre has been developed successfully. Under the environment supported by the software system, as an applicable case, a dynamic evolution process of the pedestrian's flows (dispersed process for the spectators) in a crowds' activity center - The Shanghai Stadium has been simulated successfully. The successful simulating of a case of emergence when one or more exits emerge accidents will be very useful for managing and treating crowds' safety in a lot of assembling centers. At the end of the paper, some new research problems have been pointed out for the future.

7 CFR 3052.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Management decision. 3052.405 Section 3052.405... and Pass-Through Entities § 3052.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall... the management decision, the Federal agency or pass-through entity may request additional information...

7 CFR 3052.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Management decision. 3052.405 Section 3052.405... and Pass-Through Entities § 3052.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall... the management decision, the Federal agency or pass-through entity may request additional information...

7 CFR 3052.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Management decision. 3052.405 Section 3052.405... and Pass-Through Entities § 3052.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall... the management decision, the Federal agency or pass-through entity may request additional information...

7 CFR 3052.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Management decision. 3052.405 Section 3052.405... and Pass-Through Entities § 3052.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall... the management decision, the Federal agency or pass-through entity may request additional information...

Management of Hyposalivation and Xerostomia: Criteria for Treatment Strategies.

PubMed

Epstein, Joel B; Beier Jensen, Siri

2015-09-01

Saliva management in patients with hyposalivation is potentially complex. Future development of oral care products and treatment strategies requires attention to the biology of saliva and the best means of providing a continuum of relief for people with xerostomia--the sensation of dry mouth--and hyposalivation--documented reduction in saliva flow. Improvement in patient care requires that clinicians be aware of approaches to management, desirable qualities of methods and products, and that they seek the development of products that support the functions of saliva and promote comfort and health. In this brief review of the epidemiology of hyposalivation, the biology and functions of saliva are presented in order to guide clinical decision-making to address the needs of patients with dry mouth.

Culture, intangibles and metrics in environmental management.

PubMed

Satterfield, Terre; Gregory, Robin; Klain, Sarah; Roberts, Mere; Chan, Kai M

2013-03-15

The demand for better representation of cultural considerations in environmental management is increasingly evident. As two cases in point, ecosystem service approaches increasingly include cultural services, and resource planners recognize indigenous constituents and the cultural knowledge they hold as key to good environmental management. Accordingly, collaborations between anthropologists, planners, decision makers and biodiversity experts about the subject of culture are increasingly common-but also commonly fraught. Those whose expertise is culture often engage in such collaborations because they worry a practitioner from 'elsewhere' will employ a 'measure of culture' that is poorly or naively conceived. Those from an economic or biophysical training must grapple with the intangible properties of culture as they intersect with economic, biological or other material measures. This paper seeks to assist those who engage in collaborations to characterize cultural benefits or impacts relevant to decision-making in three ways; by: (i) considering the likely mindset of would-be collaborators; (ii) providing examples of tested approaches that might enable innovation; and (iii) characterizing the kinds of obstacles that are in principle solvable through methodological alternatives. We accomplish these tasks in part by examining three cases wherein culture was a critical variable in environmental decision making: risk management in New Zealand associated with Māori concerns about genetically modified organisms; cultural services to assist marine planning in coastal British Columbia; and a decision-making process involving a local First Nation about water flows in a regulated river in western Canada. We examine how 'culture' came to be manifest in each case, drawing from ethnographic and cultural-models interviews and using subjective metrics (recommended by theories of judgment and decision making) to express cultural concerns. We conclude that the characterization of cultural benefits and impacts is least amenable to methodological solution when prevailing cultural worldviews contain elements fundamentally at odds with efforts to quantify benefits/impacts, but that even in such cases some improvements are achievable if decision-makers are flexible regarding processes for consultation with community members and how quantification is structured. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeled streamflow metrics on small, ungaged stream reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2016-01-20

Modeling streamflow is an important approach for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no streamgage records. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Colorado State University, the objectives were to model streamflow metrics on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and identify streams that are potentially threatened with becoming intermittent under drier climate conditions. The Upper Colorado River Basin is a region that is critical for water resources and also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drying climate. A random forest modeling approach was used to model the relationship between streamflow metrics and environmental variables. Flow metrics were then projected to ungaged reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin using environmental variables for each stream, represented as raster cells, in the basin. Last, the projected random forest models of minimum flow coefficient of variation and specific mean daily flow were used to highlight streams that had greater than 61.84 percent minimum flow coefficient of variation and less than 0.096 specific mean daily flow and suggested that these streams will be most threatened to shift to intermittent flow regimes under drier climate conditions. Map projection products can help scientists, land managers, and policymakers understand current hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin and make informed decisions regarding water resources. With knowledge of which streams are likely to undergo significant drying in the future, managers and scientists can plan for stream-dependent ecosystems and human water users.

Evaluation of Pushback Decision-Support Tool Concept for Charlotte Douglas International Airport Ramp Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hayashi, Miwa; Hoang, Ty; Jung, Yoon C.; Malik, Waqar; Lee, Hanbong; Dulchinos, Victoria L.

2015-01-01

This paper proposes a new departure pushback decision-support tool (DST) for airport ramp-tower controllers. It is based on NASA's Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) collaborative decision-making concept, except with the modification that the gate releases now are controlled by tactical pushback (or gate-hold) advisories instead of strategic pre-assignments of target pushback times to individual departure flights. The proposed ramp DST relies on data exchange with the airport traffic control tower (ATCT) to coordinate pushbacks with the ATCT's flow-management intentions under current operational constraints, such as Traffic Management Initiative constraints. Airlines would benefit in reduced taxi delay and fuel burn. The concept was evaluated in a human-in-the-loop simulation experiment with current ramp-tower controllers at the Charlotte Douglas International Airport as participants. The results showed that the tool helped reduce taxi time by one minute per flight and overall departure flight fuel consumption by 10-12% without reducing runway throughput. Expect Departure Clearance Time (EDCT) conformance also was improved when advisories were provided. These benefits were attained without increasing the ramp-tower controllers' workload. Additionally, the advisories reduced the ATCT controllers' workload.

Nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.

PubMed

Shirey, Maria R; Ebright, Patricia R; McDaniel, Anna M

2013-01-01

  The present study provides insight into nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.   Little is known about nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. Because nurse manager decisions have the potential to impact patient care quality and safety, understanding their decision-making processes is useful for designing supportive interventions.   This qualitative descriptive study interviewed 21 nurse managers from three hospitals to answer the research question: What decision-making processes do nurse managers utilize to address stressful situations in their nurse manager role? Face-to-face interviews incorporating components of the Critical Decision Method illuminated expert-novice practice differences. Content analysis identified one major theme and three sub-themes.   The present study produced a cognitive model that guides nurse manager decision-making related to stressful situations. Experience in the role, organizational context and situation factors influenced nurse manager cognitive decision-making processes.   Study findings suggest that chronic exposure to stress and work complexity negatively affects nurse manager health and their decision-making processes potentially threatening individual, patient and organizational outcomes.   Cognitive decision-making varies based on nurse manager experience and these differences have coaching and mentoring implications. This present study contributes a current understanding of nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Analysis of magnitude and duration of floods and droughts in the context of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eshetu Debele, Sisay; Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Strupczewski, Witold

2016-04-01

Research and scientific information are key elements of any decision-making process. There is also a strong need for tools to describe and compare in a concise way the regime of hydrological extreme events in the context of presumed climate change. To meet these demands, two complementary methods for estimating high and low-flow frequency characteristics are proposed. Both methods deal with duration and magnitude of extreme events. The first one "flow-duration-frequency" (known as QdF) has already been applied successfully to low-flow analysis, flood flows and rainfall intensity. The second one called "duration-flow-frequency" (DqF) was proposed by Strupczewski et al. in 2010 to flood frequency analysis. The two methods differ in the treatment of flow and duration. In the QdF method the duration (d-consecutive days) is a chosen fixed value and the frequency analysis concerns the annual or seasonal series of mean value of flows exceeded (in the case of floods) or non-exceeded (in the case of droughts) within d-day period. In the second method, DqF, the flows are treated as fixed thresholds and the duration of flows exceeding (floods) and non-exceeding (droughts) these thresholds are a subject of frequency analysis. The comparison of characteristics of floods and droughts in reference period and under future climate conditions for catchments studied within the CHIHE project is presented and a simple way to show the results to non-professionals and decision-makers is proposed. The work was undertaken within the project "Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Extremes (CHIHE)", which is supported by the Norway-Poland Grants Program administered by the Norwegian Research Council. The observed time series were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland. Strupczewski, W. G., Kochanek, K., Markiewicz, I., Bogdanowicz, E., Weglarczyk, S., & Singh V. P. (2010). On the Tails of Distributions of Annual Peak Flow. Hydrology Research, 42, 171-192. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.062

Discourse coalitions in Swiss waste management: gridlock or winds of change?

PubMed

Duygan, Mert; Stauffacher, Michael; Meylan, Grégoire

2018-02-01

As a complex socio-technical system, waste management is crucially important for the sustainable management of material and energy flows. Transition to better performing waste management systems requires not only determining what needs to be changed but also finding out how this change can be realized. Without understanding the political context, insights from decision support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) are likely to be lost in translation to decision and policy making. This study strives to provide a first insight into the political context and address the opportunities and barriers pertinent to initiating a change in Swiss waste management. For this purpose, the discourses around a major policy process are analysed to uncover the policy beliefs and preferences of actors. Discourse coalitions are delineated by referring to the Advocacy Coalition Framework (Sabatier, 1998) and using the Discourse Network Analysis (Leifeld and Haunss, 2012) method. The results display an incoherent regime (Fuenfschilling and Truffer, 2014) with divergent belief clusters on core issues in waste management. Yet, some actors holding different beliefs appear to have overlapping interests on secondary issues such as the treatment of biogenic waste or plastics. Although the current political context hinders a system-wide disruptive change, transitions can be initiated at local or regional scale by utilizing the shared interest across different discourse coalitions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Final Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelland, Shawn A.; Capps, Richard; Day, Kevin Brian; Kistler, Matthew Stephen; Gaither, Frank; Juro, Greg

2013-01-01

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows that may be subject to constraints that create localized demand/capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and Frontline Managers (FLMs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool, based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release time is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that improves tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions and departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas/Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations. This paper presents research results from the PDRC research activity. Companion papers present the Concept of Operations and a Technology Description.

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC): NASA to FAA Research Transition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelland, Shawn; Davis, Thomas J.

2013-01-01

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demand-capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) and Frontline Managers (FLMs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release time is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that improves tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions and departure runway assignments to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept reduces uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs and FLMs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations.

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A modeling framework for water- and environmental-resources management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.

2004-01-01

The interdisciplinary nature and increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require the use of modeling approaches that can incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific disciplines. The large number of distributed hydrological and ecosystem models currently available are composed of a variety of different conceptualizations of the associated processes they simulate. Assessment of the capabilities of these distributed models requires evaluation of the conceptualizations of the individual processes, and the identification of which conceptualizations are most appropriate for various combinations of criteria, such as problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application. With this knowledge, "optimal" models for specific sets of criteria can be created and applied. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Modular Modeling System (MMS) is an integrated system of computer software that has been developed to provide these model development and application capabilities. MMS supports the integration of models and tools at a variety of levels of modular design. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully-integrated decision support systems. A variety of visualization and statistical tools are also provided. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, under a joint USGS-BOR program called the Watershed and River System Management Program. MMS and RiverWare are linked using a shared relational database. The resulting database-centered decision support system provides tools for evaluating and applying optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. Management issues being addressed include efficiency of water-resources management, environmental concerns such as meeting flow needs for endangered species, and optimizing operations within the constraints of multiple objectives such as power generation, irrigation, and water conservation. This decision support system approach is being developed, tested, and implemented in the Gunni-son, Yakima, San Juan, Rio Grande, and Truckee River basins of the western United States. Copyright ASCE 2004.

Electronic Risk Assessment System as an Appropriate Tool for the Prevention of Cancer: a Qualitative Study.

PubMed

Javan Amoli, Amir Hossein; Maserat, Elham; Safdari, Reza; Zali, Mohammad Reza

2015-01-01

Decision making modalities for screening for many cancer conditions and different stages have become increasingly complex. Computer-based risk assessment systems facilitate scheduling and decision making and support the delivery of cancer screening services. The aim of this article was to survey electronic risk assessment system as an appropriate tool for the prevention of cancer. A qualitative design was used involving 21 face-to-face interviews. Interviewing involved asking questions and getting answers from exclusive managers of cancer screening. Of the participants 6 were female and 15 were male, and ages ranged from 32 to 78 years. The study was based on a grounded theory approach and the tool was a semi- structured interview. Researchers studied 5 dimensions, comprising electronic guideline standards of colorectal cancer screening, work flow of clinical and genetic activities, pathways of colorectal cancer screening and functionality of computer based guidelines and barriers. Electronic guideline standards of colorectal cancer screening were described in the s3 categories of content standard, telecommunications and technical standards and nomenclature and classification standards. According to the participations' views, workflow and genetic pathways of colorectal cancer screening were identified. The study demonstrated an effective role of computer-guided consultation for screening management. Electronic based systems facilitate real-time decision making during a clinical interaction. Electronic pathways have been applied for clinical and genetic decision support, workflow management, update recommendation and resource estimates. A suitable technical and clinical infrastructure is an integral part of clinical practice guidline of screening. As a conclusion, it is recommended to consider the necessity of architecture assessment and also integration standards.

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yao Xun

2011-01-01

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Decision making in a human population living sustainably.

PubMed

Hicks, John S; Burgman, Mark A; Marewski, Julian N; Fidler, Fiona; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-10-01

The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000-8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decision makers and their decision-making strategies. We hypothesized that principles of bounded rationality, namely, the use of efficient rules to navigate complex decision problems, explain how Tiwi managers use simple decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) to make robust decisions. Tiwi natural resource managers reduced complexity in decision making through a process that gathers incomplete and uncertain information to quickly guide decisions toward effective outcomes. They used management feedback to validate decisions through an information loop that resulted in long-term sustainability of environmental use. We examined the Tiwi decision-making processes relative to management of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fisheries and contrasted their management with the state government's management of barramundi. Decisions that enhanced the status of individual people and their attainment of aspiration levels resulted in reliable resource availability for Tiwi consumers. Different decision processes adopted by the state for management of barramundi may not secure similarly sustainable outcomes. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Structured decision making as a framework for large-scale wildlife harvest management decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.; Hurst, Jeremy E.; Swift, Bryan L.; Kirsch, Arthur; Farquhar, James F.; Decker, Daniel J.; Siemer, William F.

2016-01-01

Fish and wildlife harvest management at large spatial scales often involves making complex decisions with multiple objectives and difficult tradeoffs, population demographics that vary spatially, competing stakeholder values, and uncertainties that might affect management decisions. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a formal decision analytic framework for evaluating difficult decisions by breaking decisions into component parts and separating the values of stakeholders from the scientific evaluation of management actions and uncertainty. The result is a rigorous, transparent, and values-driven process. This decision-aiding process provides the decision maker with a more complete understanding of the problem and the effects of potential management actions on stakeholder values, as well as how key uncertainties can affect the decision. We use a case study to illustrate how SDM can be used as a decision-aiding tool for management decision making at large scales. We evaluated alternative white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) buck-harvest regulations in New York designed to reduce harvest of yearling bucks, taking into consideration the values of the state wildlife agency responsible for managing deer, as well as deer hunters. We incorporated tradeoffs about social, ecological, and economic management concerns throughout the state. Based on the outcomes of predictive models, expert elicitation, and hunter surveys, the SDM process identified management alternatives that optimized competing objectives. The SDM process provided biologists and managers insight about aspects of the buck-harvest decision that helped them adopt a management strategy most compatible with diverse hunter values and management concerns.

Connecting Past to Present and Watersheds to Ocean: Modeling 165 Years of Incremental Changes to Flows into the San Francisco Bay Delta System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacVean, L. J.; Thompson, S. E.; Huttom, P. H.; Sivapalan, M.

2016-02-01

California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta sits at the intersection of vast agricultural and population centers, and supplies fresh water for the diverse and often competing needs of ecosystems, farmers, and millions of Californians. Managing and allocating this resource is a complex feat of economics, politics, and engineering, made increasingly contentious by the ongoing drought. The objective of this research is to augment the scientific foundation of management decisions by addressing the question of how flows into the Delta have evolved in response to human intervention since 1850. In particular, quantifying the dynamic components of water usage through vegetative uptake and evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, flood conveyance, and water exports at incremental levels of development is a key ambition. This approach emphasizes the built environment, which is subject to the local regulatory framework, rather than climate change, which is generally considered immovable without united global effort. This work encompasses the creation of a hydrologic model representing the watersheds of the San Francisco Bay-Delta system, and quantifies the impacts of changes in land use and the gradual construction of levees, reservoirs, and diversion infrastructure. The model is run using the same climatological forcing at each level of development, thus elucidating the effects of local anthropogenic activity on the Delta and the inflows to the San Francisco Bay estuary. Our results provide a timeline of change, giving decision-makers a scientifically established baseline to aid in the sustainable management of the Bay-Delta system.

29 CFR 99.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

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29 CFR 99.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 29 Labor 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Management decision. 99.405 Section 99.405 Labor Office of... Agencies and Pass-through Entities § 99.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall... the management decision, the Federal agency or pass-through entity may request additional information...

29 CFR 99.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 29 Labor 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Management decision. 99.405 Section 99.405 Labor Office of... Agencies and Pass-through Entities § 99.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall... the management decision, the Federal agency or pass-through entity may request additional information...

29 CFR 99.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 29 Labor 1 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Management decision. 99.405 Section 99.405 Labor Office of... Agencies and Pass-through Entities § 99.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall... the management decision, the Federal agency or pass-through entity may request additional information...

29 CFR 99.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Management decision. 99.405 Section 99.405 Labor Office of... Agencies and Pass-through Entities § 99.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall... the management decision, the Federal agency or pass-through entity may request additional information...

Application of a groundwater flow model for real-time well field management - lessons learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marti, B.; Kaiser, H.-P.; Kuhlmann, U.; Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.; Kinzelbach, W.

2012-04-01

The Hardhof well field, which lies in the city of Zurich, Switzerland, provides roughly 15 % of the towns drinking water demand from the Limmat valley aquifer. Groundwater and river filtrate are withdrawn in four large horizontal wells, each with a capacity of up to 48'000 m3 per day. The well field is threatened by potential pollution from leachate of a nearby land fill, possible accidents on the adjacent rail and road lines, and by diffuse pollution from former industrial sites and sewers located upstream of the well field. A line of recharge wells and basins forms a hydraulic barrier against the potentially contaminated water and increases the capacity of the well field. Currently, a genetic algorithm coupled to a 3-dimensional groundwater flow model is applied at the well field to determine optimal infiltration rates on a daily basis. This real-time control is based on particle backtracking in a quasi-stationary flow field. It estimates the origin of the water in the four horizontal wells and calculates the amount of potentially contaminated water in each well. Running the model iteratively and refining the parameters of the genetic algorithm at the end of each step yields the recommended daily infiltration rates. The current model accurately predicts the change of piezometric head due to changes in the river stage. However, during periods of large abstraction rates, the model underestimates the piezometric heads in the Hardhof area. In addition, the infiltration rates suggested by the control do not always agree with the experience of the Zurich water works (e.g. during periods with large abstraction rates) and hence the actually applied infiltration rates are sometimes chosen differently from the calculated ones. This work analyzes the performance of the model and the control during the year 2011. The computed heads of the on-line model are compared to the measured piezometric heads in over 80 measurement locations in the model area. Furthermore, differences between the computed management decisions and the actual management decisions are analyzed and suggestions for an improved management are made.

Predicting bed shear stress and its role in sediment dynamics and restoration potential of the Everglades and other vegetated flow systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larsen, Laurel G.; Harvey, Judson; Crimaldi, John P.

2009-01-01

Entrainment of sediment by flowing water affects topography, habitat suitability, and nutrient cycling in vegetated floodplains and wetlands, impacting ecosystem evolution and the success of restoration projects. Nonetheless, restoration managers lack simple decision-support tools for predicting shear stresses and sediment redistribution potential in different vegetation communities. Using a field-validated numerical model, we developed state-space diagrams that provide these predictions over a range of water-surface slopes, depths, and associated velocities in Everglades ridge and slough vegetation communities. Diminished bed shear stresses and a consequent decrease in bed sediment redistribution are hypothesized causes of a recent reduction in the topographic and vegetation heterogeneity of this ecosystem. Results confirmed the inability of present-day flows to entrain bed sediment. Further, our diagrams showed bed shear stresses to be highly sensitive to emergent vegetation density and water-surface slope but less sensitive to water depth and periphyton or floating vegetation abundance. These findings suggested that instituting a pulsing flow regime could be the most effective means to restore sediment redistribution to the Everglades. However, pulsing flows will not be sufficient to erode sediment from sloughs with abundant spikerush, unless spikerush density first decreases by natural or managed processes. Our methods provide a novel tool for identifying restoration parameters and performance measures in many types of vegetated aquatic environments where sediment erosion and deposition are involved.

Sensitivity analysis of a ground-water-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torak, Lynn J.; ,

1991-01-01

A sensitivity analysis was performed on 18 hydrological factors affecting steady-state groundwater flow in the Upper Floridan aquifer near Albany, southwestern Georgia. Computations were based on a calibrated, two-dimensional, finite-element digital model of the stream-aquifer system and the corresponding data inputs. Flow-system sensitivity was analyzed by computing water-level residuals obtained from simulations involving individual changes to each hydrological factor. Hydrological factors to which computed water levels were most sensitive were those that produced the largest change in the sum-of-squares of residuals for the smallest change in factor value. Plots of the sum-of-squares of residuals against multiplier or additive values that effect change in the hydrological factors are used to evaluate the influence of each factor on the simulated flow system. The shapes of these 'sensitivity curves' indicate the importance of each hydrological factor to the flow system. Because the sensitivity analysis can be performed during the preliminary phase of a water-resource investigation, it can be used to identify the types of hydrological data required to accurately characterize the flow system prior to collecting additional data or making management decisions.

Expert systems applied to spacecraft fire safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Richard L.; Kashiwagi, Takashi

1989-01-01

Expert systems are problem-solving programs that combine a knowledge base and a reasoning mechanism to simulate a human expert. The development of an expert system to manage fire safety in spacecraft, in particular the NASA Space Station Freedom, is difficult but clearly advantageous in the long-term. Some needs in low-gravity flammability characteristics, ventilating-flow effects, fire detection, fire extinguishment, and decision models, all necessary to establish the knowledge base for an expert system, are discussed.

Reducing Design Cycle Time and Cost Through Process Resequencing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, James L.

2004-01-01

In today's competitive environment, companies are under enormous pressure to reduce the time and cost of their design cycle. One method for reducing both time and cost is to develop an understanding of the flow of the design processes and the effects of the iterative subcycles that are found in complex design projects. Once these aspects are understood, the design manager can make decisions that take advantage of decomposition, concurrent engineering, and parallel processing techniques to reduce the total time and the total cost of the design cycle. One software tool that can aid in this decision-making process is the Design Manager's Aid for Intelligent Decomposition (DeMAID). The DeMAID software minimizes the feedback couplings that create iterative subcycles, groups processes into iterative subcycles, and decomposes the subcycles into a hierarchical structure. The real benefits of producing the best design in the least time and at a minimum cost are obtained from sequencing the processes in the subcycles.

A dynamic simulation based water resources education tool.

PubMed

Williams, Alison; Lansey, Kevin; Washburne, James

2009-01-01

Educational tools to assist the public in recognizing impacts of water policy in a realistic context are not generally available. This project developed systems with modeling-based educational decision support simulation tools to satisfy this need. The goal of this model is to teach undergraduate students and the general public about the implications of common water management alternatives so that they can better understand or become involved in water policy and make more knowledgeable personal or community decisions. The model is based on Powersim, a dynamic simulation software package capable of producing web-accessible, intuitive, graphic, user-friendly interfaces. Modules are included to represent residential, agricultural, industrial, and turf uses, as well as non-market values, water quality, reservoir, flow, and climate conditions. Supplementary materials emphasize important concepts and lead learners through the model, culminating in an open-ended water management project. The model is used in a University of Arizona undergraduate class and within the Arizona Master Watershed Stewards Program. Evaluation results demonstrated improved understanding of concepts and system interactions, fulfilling the project's objectives.

Analysis of Convective Weather Impact on Pre-Departure Routing of Flights from Fort Worth Center to New York Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arneson, Heather; Bombelli, Alessandro; Segarra-Torne, Adria; Tse, Elmer

2017-01-01

In response to severe weather conditions, Traffic Managers specify flow constraints and reroutes to route air traffic around affected regions of airspace. Providing analysis and recommendations of available reroute options and associated airspace capacities would assist Traffic Managers in making more efficient decisions in response to convective weather. These recommendations can be developed by examining historical data to determine which previous reroute options were used in similar weather and traffic conditions. This paper describes the initial steps and methodology used towards this goal. The focus of this work is flights departing from Fort Worth Center destined for New York Center. Dominant routing structures used in the absence of convective weather are identified. A method to extract relevant features from the large volume of weather data available to quantify the impact of convective weather on this routing structure over a given time range is presented. Finally, a method of estimating flow rate capacity along commonly used routes during convective weather events is described. Results show that the flow rates drop exponentially as a function of the values of the proposed feature and that convective weather on the final third of the route was found to have a greater impact on the flow rate restriction than other portions of the route.

Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

2016-01-01

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes, and risk tolerance.

A regional-scale ecological risk framework for environmental flow evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, Gordon C.; Dickens, Chris; Hines, Eleanor; Wepener, Victor; Stassen, Retha; Quayle, Leo; Fouchy, Kelly; MacKenzie, James; Graham, P. Mark; Landis, Wayne G.

2018-02-01

Environmental flow (E-flow) frameworks advocate holistic, regional-scale, probabilistic E-flow assessments that consider flow and non-flow drivers of change in a socio-ecological context as best practice. Regional-scale ecological risk assessments of multiple stressors to social and ecological endpoints, which address ecosystem dynamism, have been undertaken internationally at different spatial scales using the relative-risk model since the mid-1990s. With the recent incorporation of Bayesian belief networks into the relative-risk model, a robust regional-scale ecological risk assessment approach is available that can contribute to achieving the best practice recommendations of E-flow frameworks. PROBFLO is a holistic E-flow assessment method that incorporates the relative-risk model and Bayesian belief networks (BN-RRM) into a transparent probabilistic modelling tool that addresses uncertainty explicitly. PROBFLO has been developed to evaluate the socio-ecological consequences of historical, current and future water resource use scenarios and generate E-flow requirements on regional spatial scales. The approach has been implemented in two regional-scale case studies in Africa where its flexibility and functionality has been demonstrated. In both case studies the evidence-based outcomes facilitated informed environmental management decision making, with trade-off considerations in the context of social and ecological aspirations. This paper presents the PROBFLO approach as applied to the Senqu River catchment in Lesotho and further developments and application in the Mara River catchment in Kenya and Tanzania. The 10 BN-RRM procedural steps incorporated in PROBFLO are demonstrated with examples from both case studies. PROBFLO can contribute to the adaptive management of water resources and contribute to the allocation of resources for sustainable use of resources and address protection requirements.

Application of a New Integrated Decision Support Tool (i-DST) for Urban Water Infrastructure: Analyzing Water Quality Compliance Pathways for Three Los Angeles Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallo, E. M.; Hogue, T. S.; Bell, C. D.; Spahr, K.; McCray, J. E.

2017-12-01

The water quality of receiving streams and waterbodies in urban watersheds are increasingly polluted from stormwater runoff. The implementation of Green Infrastructure (GI), which includes Low Impact Developments (LIDs) and Best Management Practices (BMPs), within a watershed aim to mitigate the effects of urbanization by reducing pollutant loads, runoff volume, and storm peak flow. Stormwater modeling is generally used to assess the impact of GIs implemented within a watershed. These modeling tools are useful for determining the optimal suite of GIs to maximize pollutant load reduction and minimize cost. However, stormwater management for most resource managers and communities also includes the implementation of grey and hybrid stormwater infrastructure. An integrated decision support tool, called i-DST, that allows for the optimization and comprehensive life-cycle cost assessment of grey, green, and hybrid stormwater infrastructure, is currently being developed. The i-DST tool will evaluate optimal stormwater runoff management by taking into account the diverse economic, environmental, and societal needs associated with watersheds across the United States. Three watersheds from southern California will act as a test site and assist in the development and initial application of the i-DST tool. The Ballona Creek, Dominguez Channel, and Los Angeles River Watersheds are located in highly urbanized Los Angeles County. The water quality of the river channels flowing through each are impaired by heavy metals, including copper, lead, and zinc. However, despite being adjacent to one another within the same county, modeling results, using EPA System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Analysis INtegration (SUSTAIN), found that the optimal path to compliance in each watershed differs significantly. The differences include varied costs, suites of BMPs, and ancillary benefits. This research analyzes how the economic, physical, and hydrological differences between the three watersheds shape the optimal plan for stormwater management.

The ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA): A new framework for developing regional environmental flow standards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poff, N.L.; Richter, B.D.; Arthington, A.H.; Bunn, S.E.; Naiman, R.J.; Kendy, E.; Acreman, M.; Apse, C.; Bledsoe, B.P.; Freeman, Mary C.; Henriksen, J.; Jacobson, R.B.; Kennen, J.G.; Merritt, D.M.; O'Keeffe, J. H.; Olden, J.D.; Rogers, K.; Tharme, R.E.; Warner, A.

2010-01-01

The flow regime is a primary determinant of the structure and function of aquatic and riparian ecosystems for streams and rivers. Hydrologic alteration has impaired riverine ecosystems on a global scale, and the pace and intensity of human development greatly exceeds the ability of scientists to assess the effects on a river-by-river basis. Current scientific understanding of hydrologic controls on riverine ecosystems and experience gained from individual river studies support development of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. 2. This paper presents a consensus view from a group of international scientists on a new framework for assessing environmental flow needs for many streams and rivers simultaneously to foster development and implementation of environmental flow standards at the regional scale. This framework, the ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA), is a synthesis of a number of existing hydrologic techniques and environmental flow methods that are currently being used to various degrees and that can support comprehensive regional flow management. The flexible approach allows scientists, water-resource managers and stakeholders to analyse and synthesise available scientific information into ecologically based and socially acceptable goals and standards for management of environmental flows. 3. The ELOHA framework includes the synthesis of existing hydrologic and ecological databases from many rivers within a user-defined region to develop scientifically defensible and empirically testable relationships between flow alteration and ecological responses. These relationships serve as the basis for the societally driven process of developing regional flow standards. This is to be achieved by first using hydrologic modelling to build a 'hydrologic foundation' of baseline and current hydrographs for stream and river segments throughout the region. Second, using a set of ecologically relevant flow variables, river segments within the region are classified into a few distinctive flow regime types that are expected to have different ecological characteristics. These river types can be further subclassified according to important geomorphic features that define hydraulic habitat features. Third, the deviation of current-condition flows from baseline-condition flow is determined. Fourth, flow alteration-ecological response relationships are developed for each river type, based on a combination of existing hydroecological literature, expert knowledge and field studies across gradients of hydrologic alteration. 4. Scientific uncertainty will exist in the flow alteration-ecological response relationships, in part because of the confounding of hydrologic alteration with other important environmental determinants of river ecosystem condition (e.g. temperature). Application of the ELOHA framework should therefore occur in a consensus context where stakeholders and decision-makers explicitly evaluate acceptable risk as a balance between the perceived value of the ecological goals, the economic costs involved and the scientific uncertainties in functional relationships between ecological responses and flow alteration. 5. The ELOHA framework also should proceed in an adaptive management context, where collection of monitoring data or targeted field sampling data allows for testing of the proposed flow alteration-ecological response relationships. This empirical validation process allows for a fine-tuning of environmental flow management targets. The ELOHA framework can be used both to guide basic research in hydroecology and to further implementation of more comprehensive environmental flow management of freshwater sustainability on a global scale. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A Primer for Using Transgenic Insecticidal Cotton in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

Showalter, Ann M.; Heuberger, Shannon; Tabashnik, Bruce E.; Carrière, Yves

2009-01-01

Many developing countries face the decision of whether to approve the testing and commercial use of insecticidal transgenic cotton and the task of developing adequate regulations for its use. In this review, we outline concepts and provide information to assist farmers, regulators and scientists in making decisions concerning this technology. We address seven critical topics: 1) molecular and breeding techniques used for the development of transgenic cotton cultivars, 2) properties of transgenic cotton cultivars and their efficacy against major insect pests, 3) agronomic performance of transgenic cotton in developing countries, 4) factors affecting transgene expression, 5) impact of gene flow between transgenic and non-transgenic cotton, 6) non-target effects of transgenic cotton, and 7) management of pest resistance to transgenic cotton. PMID:19613464

National Aeronautics and Space Administration fundamental research program. Information utilization and evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, J. E.; Eisgruber, L.

1981-01-01

In the second half of the 1980's NASA can expect to face difficult choices among alternative fundamental and applied research, and development projects that could potentially lead to improvements in the information systems used to manage renewable resources. The working group on information utilization and evaluation believes that effective choices cannot be made without a better understanding of the current and prospective problems and opportunities involved in the application of remote sensing to improve renewable research information systems. A renewable resources information system is defined in a broad context to include a flow of data/information from: acquisition through processing, storage, integration with other data, analysis, graphic presentation, decision making, and assessment of the affects of those decisions.

Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

PubMed

Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl

2012-01-01

Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

Dissociated Neural Processing for Decisions in Managers and Non-Managers

PubMed Central

Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G.; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl

2012-01-01

Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing. PMID:22927984

Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2013-01-01

[1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

Advanced Distribution Network Modelling with Distributed Energy Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connell, Alison

The addition of new distributed energy resources, such as electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and storage, to low voltage distribution networks means that these networks will undergo major changes in the future. Traditionally, distribution systems would have been a passive part of the wider power system, delivering electricity to the customer and not needing much control or management. However, the introduction of these new technologies may cause unforeseen issues for distribution networks, due to the fact that they were not considered when the networks were originally designed. This thesis examines different types of technologies that may begin to emerge on distribution systems, as well as the resulting challenges that they may impose. Three-phase models of distribution networks are developed and subsequently utilised as test cases. Various management strategies are devised for the purposes of controlling distributed resources from a distribution network perspective. The aim of the management strategies is to mitigate those issues that distributed resources may cause, while also keeping customers' preferences in mind. A rolling optimisation formulation is proposed as an operational tool which can manage distributed resources, while also accounting for the uncertainties that these resources may present. Network sensitivities for a particular feeder are extracted from a three-phase load flow methodology and incorporated into an optimisation. Electric vehicles are the focus of the work, although the method could be applied to other types of resources. The aim is to minimise the cost of electric vehicle charging over a 24-hour time horizon by controlling the charge rates and timings of the vehicles. The results demonstrate the advantage that controlled EV charging can have over an uncontrolled case, as well as the benefits provided by the rolling formulation and updated inputs in terms of cost and energy delivered to customers. Building upon the rolling optimisation, a three-phase optimal power flow method is developed. The formulation has the capability to provide optimal solutions for distribution system control variables, for a chosen objective function, subject to required constraints. It can, therefore, be utilised for numerous technologies and applications. The three-phase optimal power flow is employed to manage various distributed resources, such as photovoltaics and storage, as well as distribution equipment, including tap changers and switches. The flexibility of the methodology allows it to be applied in both an operational and a planning capacity. The three-phase optimal power flow is employed in an operational planning capacity to determine volt-var curves for distributed photovoltaic inverters. The formulation finds optimal reactive power settings for a number of load and solar scenarios and uses these reactive power points to create volt-var curves. Volt-var curves are determined for 10 PV systems on a test feeder. A universal curve is also determined which is applicable to all inverters. The curves are validated by testing them in a power flow setting over a 24-hour test period. The curves are shown to provide advantages to the feeder in terms of reduction of voltage deviations and unbalance, with the individual curves proving to be more effective. It is also shown that adding a new PV system to the feeder only requires analysis for that system. In order to represent the uncertainties that inherently occur on distribution systems, an information gap decision theory method is also proposed and integrated into the three-phase optimal power flow formulation. This allows for robust network decisions to be made using only an initial prediction for what the uncertain parameter will be. The work determines tap and switch settings for a test network with demand being treated as uncertain. The aim is to keep losses below a predefined acceptable value. The results provide the decision maker with the maximum possible variation in demand for a given acceptable variation in the losses. A validation is performed with the resulting tap and switch settings being implemented, and shows that the control decisions provided by the formulation keep losses below the acceptable value while adhering to the limits imposed by the network.

Nurse managers' decision-making in daily unit operation in peri-operative settings: a cross-sectional descriptive study.

PubMed

Siirala, Eriikka; Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Lundgrén-Laine, Heljä; Salanterä, Sanna; Junttila, Kristiina

2016-09-01

To describe the tactical and the operational decisions made by nurse managers when managing the daily unit operation in peri-operative settings. Management is challenging as situations change rapidly and decisions are constantly made. Understanding decision-making in this complex environment helps to develop decision support systems to support nurse managers' operative and tactical decision-making. Descriptive cross-sectional design. Data were collected from 20 nurse managers with the think-aloud method during the busiest working hours and analysed using thematic content analysis. Nurse managers made over 700 decisions; either ad hoc (n = 289), near future (n = 268) or long-term (n = 187) by nature. Decisions were often made simultaneously with many interruptions. Ad hoc decisions covered staff allocation, ensuring adequate staff, rescheduling surgical procedures, confirmation tangible resources and following-up the daily unit operation. Decisions in the near future were: planning of surgical procedures and tangible resources, and planning staff allocation. Long-term decisions were: human recourses, nursing development, supplies and equipment, and finances in the unit. Decision-making was vulnerable to interruptions, which sometimes complicated the managing tasks. The results can be used when planning decision support systems and when defining the nurse managers' tasks in peri-operative settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions.

PubMed

Beck, Nicole G; Conley, Gary; Kanner, Lisa; Mathias, Margaret

2017-05-15

We present an urban runoff model designed for stormwater managers to quantify runoff reduction benefits of mitigation actions that has lower input data and user expertise requirements than most commonly used models. The stormwater tool to estimate load reductions (TELR) employs a semi-distributed approach, where landscape characteristics and process representation are spatially-lumped within urban catchments on the order of 100 acres (40 ha). Hydrologic computations use a set of metrics that describe a 30-year rainfall distribution, combined with well-tested algorithms for rainfall-runoff transformation and routing to generate average annual runoff estimates for each catchment. User inputs include the locations and specifications for a range of structural best management practice (BMP) types. The model was tested in a set of urban catchments within the Lake Tahoe Basin of California, USA, where modeled annual flows matched that of the observed flows within 18% relative error for 5 of the 6 catchments and had good regional performance for a suite of performance metrics. Comparisons with continuous simulation models showed an average of 3% difference from TELR predicted runoff for a range of hypothetical urban catchments. The model usually identified the dominant BMP outflow components within 5% relative error of event-based measured flow data and simulated the correct proportionality between outflow components. TELR has been implemented as a web-based platform for use by municipal stormwater managers to inform prioritization, report program benefits and meet regulatory reporting requirements (www.swtelr.com). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Using global Climate Impact Indicators to assess water resource availability in a Mediterranean mountain catchment: the Sierra Nevada study case (Spain) in the SWICCA platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Sáenz de Rodrigáñez, Marta; Gulliver, Zacarias; José Polo, María

2017-04-01

Climate services provide water resource managements and users with science-based information on the likely impacts associated to the future climate scenarios. Mountainous areas are especially vulnerable to climate variations due to the expected changes in the snow regime, among others; in Mediterranean regions, this shift involves significant effects on the river flow regime and water resource availability and management. The Guadalfeo River Basin is a 1345 km2 mountainous, coastal catchment in southern Spain, ranging from the Mediterranean Sea coastline to the Sierra Nevada mountains to the north (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) within a 40-km distance. The climate variability adds complexity to this abrupt topography and heterogeneous area. The uncertainty associated to snow occurrence and persistence for the next decades poses a challenge for the current and future water resource uses in the area. The development of easy-to-use local climate indicators and derived decision-making variables is key to assess and face the economic impact of the potential changes. The SWICCA (Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation) Platform (http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/) has been developed under the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and provides global climate and hydrology indicators on a Pan-European scale. Different case studies are included to assess the platform development and contents, and analyse the indicators' performance from a proof-of-concept approach that includes end-users feedbacks. The Guadalfeo River Basin is one of these case studies. This work presents the work developed so far to analyse and use the SWICCA Climate Impact Indicators (CIIs) related to river flow in this mountainous area, and the first set of local indicators specifically designed to assess selected end-users on the potential impact associated to different climate scenarios. Different CIIs were extracted from the SWICCA interface and tested against the local information available in the case study. The Essential Climate Variables used were precipitation and flow daily values, obtained at different spatial scales. The analysis led to the use of SWICCA-river flow on a catchment scale as the most suitable global CIIs in this area. Further treatment included local downscaling by means of transfer functions and a final relative anomaly correction. Three final end-users (clients) were identified within the water resource management framework: 1) mini hydropower facilities at the head areas, 2) urban supply at the southern area, and 3) water management decision makers (reservoir operation). From the corrected CIIs, local indicators were defined from the interaction with each client, to tailor water services easily and readily usable. Knowledge brokering from this interaction resulted in a first identification of a set of 4, 3 and 4 indicators for hydropower generation, urban users and water resource decision-makers, respectively, with different time scales. The projections of three future climate scenarios were assessed for each indicator and presented to each client. Local indicators are an efficient tool to assess the potential range of water allocation possibilities in this area on an annual and decadal basis, and get a deeper insight of the seasonal future potential regime of water resource availability. The results are good examples of key information for decision making in the future, and show how to derive local indicators with impact in the short and medium term planning in heterogeneous catchments in this region.

Coronary Computed Tomographic Angiography-Derived Fractional Flow Reserve for Therapeutic Decision Making.

PubMed

Tesche, Christian; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; Duguay, Taylor M; De Cecco, Carlo N; Albrecht, Moritz H; De Santis, Domenico; Langenbach, Marcel C; Varga-Szemes, Akos; Jacobs, Brian E; Jochheim, David; Baquet, Moritz; Bayer, Richard R; Litwin, Sheldon E; Hoffmann, Ellen; Steinberg, Daniel H; Schoepf, U Joseph

2017-12-15

This study investigated the performance of coronary computed tomography angiography (cCTA) with cCTA-derived fractional flow reserve (CT-FFR) compared with invasive coronary angiography (ICA) with fractional flow reserve (FFR) for therapeutic decision making in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). Seventy-four patients (62 ± 11 years, 62% men) with at least 1 coronary stenosis of ≥50% on clinically indicated dual-source cCTA, who had subsequently undergone ICA with FFR measurement, were retrospectively evaluated. CT-FFR values were computed using an on-site machine-learning algorithm to assess the functional significance of CAD. The therapeutic strategy (optimal medical therapy alone vs revascularization) and the appropriate revascularization procedure (percutaneous coronary intervention vs coronary artery bypass grafting) were selected using cCTA-CT-FFR. Thirty-six patients (49%) had a functionally significant CAD based on ICA-FFR. cCTA-CT-FFR correctly identified a functionally significant CAD and the need of revascularization in 35 of 36 patients (97%). When revascularization was deemed indicated, the same revascularization procedure (32 percutaneous coronary interventions and 3 coronary artery bypass grafting) was chosen in 35 of 35 patients (100%). Overall, identical management strategies were selected in 73 of the 74 patients (99%). cCTA-CT-FFR shows excellent performance to identify patients with and without the need for revascularization and to select the appropriate revascularization strategy. cCTA-CT-FFR as a noninvasive "one-stop shop" has the potential to change diagnostic workflows and to directly inform therapeutic decision making in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimization techniques using MODFLOW-GWM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grava, Anna; Feinstein, Daniel T.; Barlow, Paul M.; Bonomi, Tullia; Buarne, Fabiola; Dunning, Charles; Hunt, Randall J.

2015-01-01

An important application of optimization codes such as MODFLOW-GWM is to maximize water supply from unconfined aquifers subject to constraints involving surface-water depletion and drawdown. In optimizing pumping for a fish hatchery in a bedrock aquifer system overlain by glacial deposits in eastern Wisconsin, various features of the GWM-2000 code were used to overcome difficulties associated with: 1) Non-linear response matrices caused by unconfined conditions and head-dependent boundaries; 2) Efficient selection of candidate well and drawdown constraint locations; and 3) Optimizing against water-level constraints inside pumping wells. Features of GWM-2000 were harnessed to test the effects of systematically varying the decision variables and constraints on the optimized solution for managing withdrawals. An important lesson of the procedure, similar to lessons learned in model calibration, is that the optimized outcome is non-unique, and depends on a range of choices open to the user. The modeler must balance the complexity of the numerical flow model used to represent the groundwater-flow system against the range of options (decision variables, objective functions, constraints) available for optimizing the model.

Challenges to Applying a Metamodel for Groundwater Flow Beyond Underlying Numerical Model Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeves, H. W.; Fienen, M. N.; Feinstein, D.

2015-12-01

Metamodels of environmental behavior offer opportunities for decision support, adaptive management, and increased stakeholder engagement through participatory modeling and model exploration. Metamodels are derived from calibrated, computationally demanding, numerical models. They may potentially be applied to non-modeled areas to provide screening or preliminary analysis tools for areas that do not yet have the benefit of more comprehensive study. In this decision-support mode, they may be fulfilling a role often accomplished by application of analytical solutions. The major challenge to transferring a metamodel to a non-modeled area is how to quantify the spatial data in the new area of interest in such a way that it is consistent with the data used to derive the metamodel. Tests based on transferring a metamodel derived from a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin to other glacial settings across the northern U.S. show that the spatial scale of the numerical model must be appropriately scaled to adequately represent different settings. Careful GIS analysis of the numerical model, metamodel, and new area of interest is required for successful transfer of results.

25 CFR 217.5 - Management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2012-04-01 2011-04-01 true Management decisions. 217.5 Section 217.5 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR ENERGY AND MINERALS MANAGEMENT OF TRIBAL ASSETS OF UTE... Management decisions. In arriving at management decisions concerning the assets, the business committee shall...

38 CFR 41.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Management decision. 41... Entities § 41.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall clearly state whether or... completed corrective action, a timetable for follow-up should be given. Prior to issuing the management...

25 CFR 217.5 - Management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Management decisions. 217.5 Section 217.5 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR ENERGY AND MINERALS MANAGEMENT OF TRIBAL ASSETS OF UTE... Management decisions. In arriving at management decisions concerning the assets, the business committee shall...

38 CFR 41.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Management decision. 41... Entities § 41.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall clearly state whether or... completed corrective action, a timetable for follow-up should be given. Prior to issuing the management...

25 CFR 217.5 - Management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Management decisions. 217.5 Section 217.5 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR ENERGY AND MINERALS MANAGEMENT OF TRIBAL ASSETS OF UTE... Management decisions. In arriving at management decisions concerning the assets, the business committee shall...

38 CFR 41.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Management decision. 41... Entities § 41.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall clearly state whether or... completed corrective action, a timetable for follow-up should be given. Prior to issuing the management...

25 CFR 217.5 - Management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Management decisions. 217.5 Section 217.5 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR ENERGY AND MINERALS MANAGEMENT OF TRIBAL ASSETS OF UTE... Management decisions. In arriving at management decisions concerning the assets, the business committee shall...

38 CFR 41.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Management decision. 41... Entities § 41.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall clearly state whether or... completed corrective action, a timetable for follow-up should be given. Prior to issuing the management...

25 CFR 217.5 - Management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Management decisions. 217.5 Section 217.5 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR ENERGY AND MINERALS MANAGEMENT OF TRIBAL ASSETS OF UTE... Management decisions. In arriving at management decisions concerning the assets, the business committee shall...

38 CFR 41.405 - Management decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Management decision. 41... Entities § 41.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall clearly state whether or... completed corrective action, a timetable for follow-up should be given. Prior to issuing the management...

Data Management for Mars Exploration Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snyder, Joseph F.; Smyth, David E.

2004-01-01

Data Management for the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) project is a comprehensive system addressing the needs of development, test, and operations phases of the mission. During development of flight software, including the science software, the data management system can be simulated using any POSIX file system. During testing, the on-board file system can be bit compared with files on the ground to verify proper behavior and end-to-end data flows. During mission operations, end-to-end accountability of data products is supported, from science observation concept to data products within the permanent ground repository. Automated and human-in-the-loop ground tools allow decisions regarding retransmitting, re-prioritizing, and deleting data products to be made using higher level information than is available to a protocol-stack approach such as the CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP).

Practical application of game theory based production flow planning method in virtual manufacturing networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olender, M.; Krenczyk, D.

2016-08-01

Modern enterprises have to react quickly to dynamic changes in the market, due to changing customer requirements and expectations. One of the key area of production management, that must continuously evolve by searching for new methods and tools for increasing the efficiency of manufacturing systems is the area of production flow planning and control. These aspects are closely connected with the ability to implement the concept of Virtual Enterprises (VE) and Virtual Manufacturing Network (VMN) in which integrated infrastructure of flexible resources are created. In the proposed approach, the players role perform the objects associated with the objective functions, allowing to solve the multiobjective production flow planning problems based on the game theory, which is based on the theory of the strategic situation. For defined production system and production order models ways of solving the problem of production route planning in VMN on computational examples for different variants of production flow is presented. Possible decision strategy to use together with an analysis of calculation results is shown.

Population Viability Analysis of Riverine Fishes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bates, P.; Chandler, J.; Jager, H.I.

Many utilities face conflkts between two goals: cost-efficient hydropower generation and protecting riverine fishes. Research to develop ecological simulation tools that can evaluate alternative mitigation strategies in terms of their benefits to fish populations is vital to informed decision-making. In this paper, we describe our approach to population viability analysis of riverine fishes in general and Snake River white sturgeon in particular. We are finding that the individual-based modeling approach used in previous in-stream flow applications is well suited to addressing questions about the viability of species of concern for several reasons. Chief among these are: (1) the abiIity tomore » represent the effects of individual variation in life history characteristics on predicted population viabili~, (2) the flexibili~ needed to quanti~ the ecological benefits of alternative flow management options by representing spatial and temporal variation in flow and temperaturty and (3) the flexibility needed to quantifi the ecological benefits of non-flow related manipulations (i.e., passage, screening and hatchery supplementation).« less

A gain-loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage-wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courdent, Vianney; Grum, Morten; Munk-Nielsen, Thomas; Mikkelsen, Peter S.

2017-05-01

Precipitation is the cause of major perturbation to the flow in urban drainage and wastewater systems. Flow forecasts, generated by coupling rainfall predictions with a hydrologic runoff model, can potentially be used to optimize the operation of integrated urban drainage-wastewater systems (IUDWSs) during both wet and dry weather periods. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have significantly improved in recent years, having increased their spatial and temporal resolution. Finer resolution NWP are suitable for urban-catchment-scale applications, providing longer lead time than radar extrapolation. However, forecasts are inevitably uncertain, and fine resolution is especially challenging for NWP. This uncertainty is commonly addressed in meteorology with ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). Handling uncertainty is challenging for decision makers and hence tools are necessary to provide insight on ensemble forecast usage and to support the rationality of decisions (i.e. forecasts are uncertain and therefore errors will be made; decision makers need tools to justify their choices, demonstrating that these choices are beneficial in the long run). This study presents an economic framework to support the decision-making process by providing information on when acting on the forecast is beneficial and how to handle the EPS. The relative economic value (REV) approach associates economic values with the potential outcomes and determines the preferential use of the EPS forecast. The envelope curve of the REV diagram combines the results from each probability forecast to provide the highest relative economic value for a given gain-loss ratio. This approach is traditionally used at larger scales to assess mitigation measures for adverse events (i.e. the actions are taken when events are forecast). The specificity of this study is to optimize the energy consumption in IUDWS during low-flow periods by exploiting the electrical smart grid market (i.e. the actions are taken when no events are forecast). Furthermore, the results demonstrate the benefit of NWP neighbourhood post-processing methods to enhance the forecast skill and increase the range of beneficial uses.

Hybrid supply chain model for material requirement planning under financial constraints: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curci, Vita; Dassisti, Michele; Josefa, Mula Bru; Manuel, Díaz Madroñero

2014-10-01

Supply chain model (SCM) are potentially capable to integrate different aspects in supporting decision making for enterprise management tasks. The aim of the paper is to propose an hybrid mathematical programming model for optimization of production requirements resources planning. The preliminary model was conceived bottom-up from a real industrial case analysed oriented to maximize cash flow. Despite the intense computational effort required to converge to a solution, optimisation done brought good result in solving the objective function.

Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

2013-01-01

Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

Transforming clinical practice guidelines and clinical pathways into fast-and-frugal decision trees to improve clinical care strategies.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok; Dale, William

2018-02-27

Contemporary delivery of health care is inappropriate in many ways, largely due to suboptimal Q5 decision-making. A typical approach to improve practitioners' decision-making is to develop evidence-based clinical practice guidelines (CPG) by guidelines panels, who are instructed to use their judgments to derive practice recommendations. However, mechanisms for the formulation of guideline judgments remains a "black-box" operation-a process with defined inputs and outputs but without sufficient knowledge of its internal workings. Increased explicitness and transparency in the process can be achieved by implementing CPG as clinical pathways (CPs) (also known as clinical algorithms or flow-charts). However, clinical recommendations thus derived are typically ad hoc and developed by experts in a theory-free environment. As any recommendation can be right (true positive or negative), or wrong (false positive or negative), the lack of theoretical structure precludes the quantitative assessment of the management strategies recommended by CPGs/CPs. To realize the full potential of CPGs/CPs, they need to be placed on more solid theoretical grounds. We believe this potential can be best realized by converting CPGs/CPs within the heuristic theory of decision-making, often implemented as fast-and-frugal (FFT) decision trees. This is possible because FFT heuristic strategy of decision-making can be linked to signal detection theory, evidence accumulation theory, and a threshold model of decision-making, which, in turn, allows quantitative analysis of the accuracy of clinical management strategies. Fast-and-frugal provides a simple and transparent, yet solid and robust, methodological framework connecting decision science to clinical care, a sorely needed missing link between CPGs/CPs and patient outcomes. We therefore advocate that all guidelines panels express their recommendations as CPs, which in turn should be converted into FFTs to guide clinical care. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; McCright, Aaron M.

2016-01-01

Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

Environmental flows and water quality objectives for the River Murray.

PubMed

Gippel, C; Jacobs, T; McLeod, T

2002-01-01

Over the past decade, there intense consideration of managing flows in the River Murray to provide environmental benefits. In 1990 the Murray-Darling Basin Ministerial Council adopted a water quality policy: To maintain and, where necessary, improve existing water quality in the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin for all beneficial uses - agricultural, environmental, urban, industrial and recreational, and in 1994 a flow policy: To maintain and where necessary improve existing flow regimes in the waterways of the Murray-Darling Basin to protect and enhance the riverine environment. The Audit of Water Use followed in 1995, culminating in the decision of the Ministerial Council to implement an interim cap on new diversions for consumptive use (the "Cap") in a bid to halt declining river health. In March 1999 the Environmental Flows and Water Quality Objectives for the River Murray Project (the Project) was set up, primarily to establish be developed that aims to achieve a sustainable river environment and water quality, in accordance with community needs, and including an adaptive approach to management and operation of the River. It will lead to objectives for water quality and environmental flows that are feasible, appropriate, have the support of the scientific, management and stakeholder communities, and carry acceptable levels of risk. This paper describes four key aspects of the process being undertaken to determine the objectives, and design the flow options that will meet those objectives: establishment of an appropriate technical, advisory and administrative framework; establishing clear evidence for regulation impacts; undergoing assessment of environmental flow needs; and filling knowledge gaps. A review of the impacts of flow regulation on the health of the River Murray revealed evidence for decline, but the case for flow regulation as the main cause is circumstantial or uncertain. This is to be expected, because the decline of the River Murray results from many factors acting over a long period. Also, the health of the river varies along its length, from highly degraded to reasonably healthy, so it is clear that different approaches will be needed in the various river zones, with some problems requiring reach or even point scale solutions. Environmental flow needs have been determined through two major Expert Panel reports that identified the ecological priorities for the river. The next step is to translate these needs into feasible flow management actions that will provide the necessary hydrological conditions. Several investigations are underway to recommend options for flow management. Two important investigations are described in this paper: how to enhance flows to wetlands of national and international significance, and how to physically alter or change the operation of structures (including a dam, weir, lock, regulator, barrage or causeway), to provide significant environmental benefits. Early modelling suggests that the only option which has a positive environmental effect in all zones of the River is a reduction in overall water consumption.

A dashboard-based system for supporting diabetes care.

PubMed

Dagliati, Arianna; Sacchi, Lucia; Tibollo, Valentina; Cogni, Giulia; Teliti, Marsida; Martinez-Millana, Antonio; Traver, Vicente; Segagni, Daniele; Posada, Jorge; Ottaviano, Manuel; Fico, Giuseppe; Arredondo, Maria Teresa; De Cata, Pasquale; Chiovato, Luca; Bellazzi, Riccardo

2018-05-01

To describe the development, as part of the European Union MOSAIC (Models and Simulation Techniques for Discovering Diabetes Influence Factors) project, of a dashboard-based system for the management of type 2 diabetes and assess its impact on clinical practice. The MOSAIC dashboard system is based on predictive modeling, longitudinal data analytics, and the reuse and integration of data from hospitals and public health repositories. Data are merged into an i2b2 data warehouse, which feeds a set of advanced temporal analytic models, including temporal abstractions, care-flow mining, drug exposure pattern detection, and risk-prediction models for type 2 diabetes complications. The dashboard has 2 components, designed for (1) clinical decision support during follow-up consultations and (2) outcome assessment on populations of interest. To assess the impact of the clinical decision support component, a pre-post study was conducted considering visit duration, number of screening examinations, and lifestyle interventions. A pilot sample of 700 Italian patients was investigated. Judgments on the outcome assessment component were obtained via focus groups with clinicians and health care managers. The use of the decision support component in clinical activities produced a reduction in visit duration (P ≪ .01) and an increase in the number of screening exams for complications (P < .01). We also observed a relevant, although nonstatistically significant, increase in the proportion of patients receiving lifestyle interventions (from 69% to 77%). Regarding the outcome assessment component, focus groups highlighted the system's capability of identifying and understanding the characteristics of patient subgroups treated at the center. Our study demonstrates that decision support tools based on the integration of multiple-source data and visual and predictive analytics do improve the management of a chronic disease such as type 2 diabetes by enacting a successful implementation of the learning health care system cycle.

An integrated decision support system for wastewater nutrient recovery and recycling to agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, E. D.; Bomeisl, L.; Cornbrooks, P.; Mo, W.

2017-12-01

Nutrient recovery and recycling has become a key research topic within the wastewater engineering and nutrient management communities. Several technologies now exist that can effectively capture nutrients from wastewater, and innovation in this area continues to be an important research pursuit. However, practical nutrient recycling solutions require more than capable nutrient capture technologies. We also need to understand the role that wastewater nutrient recovery and recycling can play within broader nutrient management schemes at the landscape level, including important interactions at the nexus of food, energy, and water. We are developing an integrated decision support system that combines wastewater treatment data, agricultural data, spatial nutrient balance modeling, life cycle assessment, stakeholder knowledge, and multi-criteria decision making. Our goals are to: (1) help guide design decisions related to the implementation of sustainable nutrient recovery technology, (2) support innovations in watershed nutrient management that operate at the interface of the built environment and agriculture, and (3) aid efforts to protect aquatic ecosystems while supporting human welfare in a circular nutrient economy. These goals will be realized partly through the assessment of plausible alternative scenarios for the future. In this presentation, we will describe the tool and focus on nutrient balance results for the New England region. These results illustrate that both centralized and decentralized wastewater nutrient recovery schemes have potential to transform nutrient flows in many New England watersheds, diverting wastewater N and P away from aquatic ecosystems and toward local or regional agricultural soils where they can offset a substantial percentage of imported fertilizer. We will also highlight feasibility criteria and next steps to integrate stakeholder knowledge, economics, and life cycle assessment into the tool.

Knowing requires data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naranjo, Ramon C.

2017-01-01

Groundwater-flow models are often calibrated using a limited number of observations relative to the unknown inputs required for the model. This is especially true for models that simulate groundwater surface-water interactions. In this case, subsurface temperature sensors can be an efficient means for collecting long-term data that capture the transient nature of physical processes such as seepage losses. Continuous and spatially dense network of diverse observation data can be used to improve knowledge of important physical drivers, conceptualize and calibrate variably saturated groundwater flow models. An example is presented for which the results of such analysis were used to help guide irrigation districts and water management decisions on costly upgrades to conveyance systems to improve water usage, farm productivity and restoration efforts to improve downstream water quality and ecosystems.

Recent trends, drivers, and projections of carbon cycle processes in forests and grasslands of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domke, G. M.; Williams, C. A.; Birdsey, R.; Pendall, E.

2017-12-01

In North America forest and grassland ecosystems play a major role in the carbon cycle. Here we present the latest trends and projections of United States and North American carbon cycle processes, stocks, and flows in the context of interactions with global scale budgets and climate change impacts in managed and unmanaged grassland and forest ecosystems. We describe recent trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in these ecosystems as well as the carbon dynamics associated with land use and land cover change. We also highlight carbon management science and tools for informing decisions and opportunities for improving carbon measurements, observations, and projections in forests and grasslands.

Health Information Management System for Elderly Health Sector: A Qualitative Study in Iran

PubMed Central

Sadoughi, Farahnaz; Shahi, Mehraban; Ahmadi, Maryam; Davaridolatabadi, Nasrin

2016-01-01

Background: There are increasing change and development of information in healthcare systems. Given the increase in aging population, managers are in need of true and timely information when making decision. Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the current status of the health information management system for the elderly health sector in Iran. Materials and Methods: This qualitative study was conducted in two steps. In the first step, required documents for administrative managers were collected using the data gathering form and observed and reviewed by the researcher. In the second step, using an interview guide, the required information was gathered through interviewing experts and faculty members. The convenience, purposeful and snowball sampling methods were applied to select interviewees and the sampling continued until reaching the data saturation point. Finally, notes and interviews were transcribed and content analysis was used to analyze them. Results: The results of the study showed that there was a health information management system for the elderly health sector in Iran. However, in all primary health care centers the documentation of data was done manually; the data flow was not automated; and the analysis and reporting of data are also manually. Eventually, decision makers are provided with delayed information. Conclusions: It is suggested that the steward of health in Iran, the ministry of health, develops an appropriate infrastructure and finally puts a high priority on the implementation of the health information management system for elderly health sector in Iran. PMID:27186383

A decision support system for adaptive real-time management ofseasonal wetlands in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quinn, Nigel W.T.; Hanna, W. Mark

This paper describes the development of a comprehensive flow and salinity monitoring system and application of a decision support system (DSS) to improve management of seasonal wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley of California. The Environmental Protection Agency regulates salinity discharges from non-point sources to the San Joaquin River using a procedure known as the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) to allocate the assimilative capacity of the River for salt among watershed sources. Management of wetland sources of salt load will require the development of monitoring systems, more integrative management strategies and coordination with other entities. To obtain local cooperationmore » the Grassland Water District, whose primary function is to supply surface water to private duck clubs and managed wetlands, needs to communicate to local landowners the likely impacts of salinity regulation on the long term health and function of wildfowl habitat. The project described in this paper will also provide this information. The models that form the backbone of the DSS develop salinity balances at both a regional and local scale. The regional scale concentrates on deliveries to and exports from the Grasland Water District while the local scale focuses on an individual wetland unit where more intensive monitoring is being conducted. The design of the DSS is constrained to meet the needs of busy wetland managers and is being designed from the bottom up utilizing tools and procedures familiar to these individuals.« less

Health Information Management System for Elderly Health Sector: A Qualitative Study in Iran.

PubMed

Sadoughi, Farahnaz; Shahi, Mehraban; Ahmadi, Maryam; Davaridolatabadi, Nasrin

2016-02-01

There are increasing change and development of information in healthcare systems. Given the increase in aging population, managers are in need of true and timely information when making decision. The aim of this study was to investigate the current status of the health information management system for the elderly health sector in Iran. This qualitative study was conducted in two steps. In the first step, required documents for administrative managers were collected using the data gathering form and observed and reviewed by the researcher. In the second step, using an interview guide, the required information was gathered through interviewing experts and faculty members. The convenience, purposeful and snowball sampling methods were applied to select interviewees and the sampling continued until reaching the data saturation point. Finally, notes and interviews were transcribed and content analysis was used to analyze them. The results of the study showed that there was a health information management system for the elderly health sector in Iran. However, in all primary health care centers the documentation of data was done manually; the data flow was not automated; and the analysis and reporting of data are also manually. Eventually, decision makers are provided with delayed information. It is suggested that the steward of health in Iran, the ministry of health, develops an appropriate infrastructure and finally puts a high priority on the implementation of the health information management system for elderly health sector in Iran.

A baker's dozen of new particle flows for nonlinear filters, Bayesian decisions and transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daum, Fred; Huang, Jim

2015-05-01

We describe a baker's dozen of new particle flows to compute Bayes' rule for nonlinear filters, Bayesian decisions and learning as well as transport. Several of these new flows were inspired by transport theory, but others were inspired by physics or statistics or Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.

Health Care Decision Support System for the Pediatric Emeregency Department Management.

PubMed

Ben Othman, Sarah; Hammadi, Slim; Quilliot, Alain; Martinot, Alain; Renard, Jean-Marie

2015-01-01

Health organization management is facing a high amount of complexity due to the inherent dynamics of the processes and the distributed organization of hospitals. It is therefore necessary for health care institutions to focus on this issue in order to deal with patients' requirements and satisfy their needs. The main objective of this study is to develop and implement a Decision Support System which can help physicians to better manage their organization, to anticipate the overcrowding feature, and to establish avoidance proposals for it. This work is a part of HOST project (Hospital: Optimization, Simulation, and Crowding Avoidance) of the French National Research Agency (ANR). It aims to optimize the functioning of the Pediatric Emergency Department characterized by stochastic arrivals of patients which leads to its overcrowding and services overload. Our study is a set of tools to smooth out patient flows, enhance care quality and minimize long waiting times and costs due to resources allocation. So we defined a decision aided tool based on Multi-agent Systems where actors negotiate and cooperate under some constraints in a dynamic environment. These entities which can be either physical agents representing real actors in the health care institution or software agents allowing the implementation of optimizing tools, cooperate to satisfy the demands of patients while respecting emergency degrees. This paper is concerned with agents' negotiation. It proposes a new approach for multi-skill tasks scheduling based on interactions between agents.

Mobile task management tool that improves workflow of an acute general surgical service.

PubMed

Foo, Elizabeth; McDonald, Rod; Savage, Earle; Floyd, Richard; Butler, Anthony; Rumball-Smith, Alistair; Connor, Saxon

2015-10-01

Understanding and being able to measure constraints within a health system is crucial if outcomes are to be improved. Current systems lack the ability to capture decision making with regard to tasks performed within a patient journey. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of a mobile task management tool on clinical workflow within an acute general surgical service by analysing data capture and usability of the application tool. The Cortex iOS application was developed to digitize patient flow and provide real-time visibility over clinical decision making and task performance. Study outcomes measured were workflow data capture for patient and staff events. Usability was assessed using an electronic survey. There were 449 unique patient journeys tracked with a total of 3072 patient events recorded. The results repository was accessed 7792 times. The participants reported that the application sped up decision making, reduced redundancy of work and improved team communication. The mode of the estimated time the application saved participants was 5-9 min/h of work. Of the 14 respondents, nine discarded their analogue methods of tracking tasks by the end of the study period. The introduction of a mobile task management system improved the working efficiency of junior clinical staff. The application allowed capture of data not previously available to hospital systems. In the future, such data will contribute to the accurate mapping of patient journeys through the health system. © 2015 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Decision Support for Ecosystem Management (Chapter 28)

Treesearch

Keith Reynolds; Jennifer Bjork; Rachel Riemann Hershey; Dan Schmoldt; John Payne; Susan King; Lee DeCola; Mark J. Twery; Pat Cunningham

1999-01-01

This chapter presents a management perspective on decision support for ecosystem management.The Introduction provides a brief historical overview of decision support technology as it has been used in natural resource management, discusses the role of decision support in ecosystem management as we see it, and summarizes the current state of the technology.

Process-driven information management system at a biotech company: concept and implementation.

PubMed

Gobbi, Alberto; Funeriu, Sandra; Ioannou, John; Wang, Jinyi; Lee, Man-Ling; Palmer, Chris; Bamford, Bob; Hewitt, Robin

2004-01-01

While established pharmaceutical companies have chemical information systems in place to manage their compounds and the associated data, new startup companies need to implement these systems from scratch. Decisions made early in the design phase usually have long lasting effects on the expandability, maintenance effort, and costs associated with the information management system. Careful analysis of work and data flows, both inter- and intradepartmental, and identification of existing dependencies between activities are important. This knowledge is required to implement an information management system, which enables the research community to work efficiently by avoiding redundant registration and processing of data and by timely provision of the data whenever needed. This paper first presents the workflows existing at Anadys, then ARISE, the research information management system developed in-house at Anadys. ARISE was designed to support the preclinical drug discovery process and covers compound registration, analytical quality control, inventory management, high-throughput screening, lower throughput screening, and data reporting.

Findings from an Organizational Network Analysis to Support Local Public Health Management

PubMed Central

Caldwell, Michael; Rockoff, Maxine L.; Gebbie, Kristine; Carley, Kathleen M.; Bakken, Suzanne

2008-01-01

We assessed the feasibility of using organizational network analysis in a local public health organization. The research setting was an urban/suburban county health department with 156 employees. The goal of the research was to study communication and information flow in the department and to assess the technique for public health management. Network data were derived from survey questionnaires. Computational analysis was performed with the Organizational Risk Analyzer. Analysis revealed centralized communication, limited interdependencies, potential knowledge loss through retirement, and possible informational silos. The findings suggested opportunities for more cross program coordination but also suggested the presences of potentially efficient communication paths and potentially beneficial social connectedness. Managers found the findings useful to support decision making. Public health organizations must be effective in an increasingly complex environment. Network analysis can help build public health capacity for complex system management. PMID:18481183

Hydrologic characteristics of freshwater mussel habitat: novel insights from modeled flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, C. Ashton; Eddy, Michele; Kwak, Thomas J.; Cope, W. Gregory; Augspurger, Tom

2018-01-01

The ability to model freshwater stream habitat and species distributions is limited by the spatially sparse flow data available from long-term gauging stations. Flow data beyond the immediate vicinity of gauging stations would enhance our ability to explore and characterize hydrologic habitat suitability. The southeastern USA supports high aquatic biodiversity, but threats, such as landuse alteration, climate change, conflicting water-resource demands, and pollution, have led to the imperilment and legal protection of many species. The ability to distinguish suitable from unsuitable habitat conditions, including hydrologic suitability, is a key criterion for successful conservation and restoration of aquatic species. We used the example of the critically endangered Tar River Spinymussel (Parvaspina steinstansana) and associated species to demonstrate the value of modeled flow data (WaterFALL™) to generate novel insights into population structure and testable hypotheses regarding hydrologic suitability. With ordination models, we: 1) identified all catchments with potentially suitable hydrology, 2) identified 2 distinct hydrologic environments occupied by the Tar River Spinymussel, and 3) estimated greater hydrological habitat niche breadth of assumed surrogate species associates at the catchment scale. Our findings provide the first demonstrated application of complete, continuous, regional modeled hydrologic data to freshwater mussel distribution and management. This research highlights the utility of modeling and data-mining methods to facilitate further exploration and application of such modeled environmental conditions to inform aquatic species management. We conclude that such an approach can support landscape-scale management decisions that require spatial information at fine resolution (e.g., enhanced National Hydrology Dataset catchments) and broad extent (e.g., multiple river basins).

District decision-making for health in low-income settings: a case study of the potential of public and private sector data in India and Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Bhattacharyya, Sanghita; Berhanu, Della; Taddesse, Nolawi; Srivastava, Aradhana; Wickremasinghe, Deepthi; Schellenberg, Joanna

2016-01-01

Many low- and middle-income countries have pluralistic health systems where private for-profit and not-for-profit sectors complement the public sector: data shared across sectors can provide information for local decision-making. The third article in a series of four on district decision-making for health in low-income settings, this study shows the untapped potential of existing data through documenting the nature and type of data collected by the public and private health systems, data flow and sharing, use and inter-sectoral linkages in India and Ethiopia. In two districts in each country, semi-structured interviews were conducted with administrators and data managers to understand the type of data maintained and linkages with other sectors in terms of data sharing, flow and use. We created a database of all data elements maintained at district level, categorized by form and according to the six World Health Organization health system blocks. We used content analysis to capture the type of data available for different health system levels. Data flow in the public health sectors of both counties is sequential, formal and systematic. Although multiple sources of data exist outside the public health system, there is little formal sharing of data between sectors. Though not fully operational, Ethiopia has better developed formal structures for data sharing than India. In the private and public sectors, health data in both countries are collected in all six health system categories, with greatest focus on service delivery data and limited focus on supplies, health workforce, governance and contextual information. In the Indian private sector, there is a better balance than in the public sector of data across the six categories. In both India and Ethiopia the majority of data collected relate to maternal and child health. Both countries have huge potential for increased use of health data to guide district decision-making. PMID:27591203

Scotland's Water Map: Understanding water sector links to support decision making for the Hydro Nation Agenda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falconer, Ruth E.; Gilmour, Daniel; Duffy, Alison; Isaacs, John; Stojanovic, Vladeta; O'Keeffe, Juliette; Blackwood, David

2015-04-01

The value of Scotland's water and sewerage market is projected to grow to £1.24bn by 2016/17. Developing future opportunities must take place alongside maintaining current service provision; however the demand on water and waste water services is constantly evolving. An integrated approach to water management requires an understanding of complex interactions that exist between key actors in the sector to allow water management strategies to exploit inter-sectorial links. Successful integrated analysis of the water sector in Scotland will support management activities key to responding to the Hydro Nation themes of 1) Governance and international development 2) Environmental protection 3) Economic opportunities 4) Research development. In order to deliver on these objectives an approach is required to capture and communicate the scope and scale of the water sector and its interconnectedness. The methodology required to determine scope, scale and interconnectedness of water sector involved the identification and application of an appropriate range of techniques from the Information and Knowledge Management disciplines combined with the Information Visualisation field. Scope and scale of the water sector was identified by a desk based study and this data was visualized using a geographic map. Sector interconnectedness was determined by interviewing key actors. The interviews identified the stakeholders associated with information flows, and the purpose of the information transfer through Reporting/Managing (R/M), Influence and Information sharing (I) or Control (C) activities. Primary information flows were also scored with respect to importance against the 4 key Hydro Nation agenda themes. Many organisations were identified who interact within Scotland's water sector including the Scottish Government and Ministers, the Regulators (WICS, DWQR, SEPA), Scottish Water (core and non-core functions), plus many other stakeholders ranging from research institutions to private sector businesses. This data was used in a water wheel visualisation where connections between stakeholders are shown as links and the width of the link represents the importance of the information exchage. Both maps will be used by the Scottish Government and its stakeholders to support decision making and illustrate the management and control aspects of the water sector.

Thresholds for conservation and management: structured decision making as a conceptual framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Martin, Julien; Edited by Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2014-01-01

changes in system dynamics. They are frequently incorporated into ecological models used to project system responses to management actions. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. Decision thresholds are derived from the other components of the decision process.We advocate a structured decision making (SDM) approach within which the following components are identified: objectives (possibly including utility thresholds), potential actions, models (possibly including ecological thresholds), monitoring program, and a solution algorithm (which produces decision thresholds). Adaptive resource management (ARM) is described as a special case of SDM developed for recurrent decision problems that are characterized by uncertainty. We believe that SDM, in general, and ARM, in particular, provide good approaches to conservation and management. Use of SDM and ARM also clarifies the distinct roles of ecological thresholds, utility thresholds, and decision thresholds in informed decision processes.

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Technology Description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelland, Shawn A.; Capps, Richard; Day, Kevin; Robinson, Corissia; Null, Jody R.

2013-01-01

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demand-capacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity, Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center TMC to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that uses this technology to improve tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept helps reduce uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station (NTX) in Dallas-Fort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations. This paper presents the Technology Description. Companion papers include the Final Report and a Concept of Operations.

Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) Concept of Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engelland, Shawn; Capps, Richard A.; Day, Kevin Brian

2013-01-01

After takeoff, aircraft must merge into en route (Center) airspace traffic flows which may be subject to constraints that create localized demandcapacity imbalances. When demand exceeds capacity Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) often use tactical departure scheduling to manage the flow of departures into the constrained Center traffic flow. Tactical departure scheduling usually involves use of a Call for Release (CFR) procedure wherein the Tower must call the Center TMC to coordinate a release time prior to allowing the flight to depart. In present-day operations release times are computed by the Center Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) decision support tool based upon manual estimates of aircraft ready time verbally communicated from the Tower to the Center. The TMA-computed release is verbally communicated from the Center back to the Tower where it is relayed to the Local controller as a release window that is typically three minutes wide. The Local controller will manage the departure to meet the coordinated release time window. Manual ready time prediction and verbal release time coordination are labor intensive and prone to inaccuracy. Also, use of release time windows adds uncertainty to the tactical departure process. Analysis of more than one million flights from January 2011 indicates that a significant number of tactically scheduled aircraft missed their en route slot due to ready time prediction uncertainty. Uncertainty in ready time estimates may result in missed opportunities to merge into constrained en route flows and lead to lost throughput. Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) plans call for development of Tower automation systems capable of computing surface trajectory-based ready time estimates. NASA has developed the Precision Departure Release Capability (PDRC) concept that uses this technology to improve tactical departure scheduling by automatically communicating surface trajectory-based ready time predictions to the Center scheduling tool. The PDRC concept also incorporates earlier NASA and FAA research into automation-assisted CFR coordination. The PDRC concept helps reduce uncertainty by automatically communicating coordinated release times with seconds-level precision enabling TMCs to work with target times rather than windows. NASA has developed a PDRC prototype system that integrates the Center's TMA system with a research prototype Tower decision support tool. A two-phase field evaluation was conducted at NASA's North Texas Research Station (NTX) in DallasFort Worth. The field evaluation validated the PDRC concept and demonstrated reduced release time uncertainty while being used for tactical departure scheduling of more than 230 operational flights over 29 weeks of operations. This paper presents the Concept of Operations. Companion papers include the Final Report and a Technology Description. ? SUBJECT:

A multi-phase network situational awareness cognitive task analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erbacher, Robert; Frincke, Deborah A.; Wong, Pak C.

Abstract The goal of our project is to create a set of next-generation cyber situational-awareness capabilities with applications to other domains in the long term. The objective is to improve the decision-making process to enable decision makers to choose better actions. To this end, we put extensive effort into making certain that we had feedback from network analysts and managers and understand what their genuine needs are. This article discusses the cognitive task-analysis methodology that we followed to acquire feedback from the analysts. This article also provides the details we acquired from the analysts on their processes, goals, concerns, themore » data and metadata that they analyze. Finally, we describe the generation of a novel task-flow diagram representing the activities of the target user base.« less

AQMAN; linear and quadratic programming matrix generator using two-dimensional ground-water flow simulation for aquifer management modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lefkoff, L.J.; Gorelick, S.M.

1987-01-01

A FORTRAN-77 computer program code that helps solve a variety of aquifer management problems involving the control of groundwater hydraulics. It is intended for use with any standard mathematical programming package that uses Mathematical Programming System input format. The computer program creates the input files to be used by the optimization program. These files contain all the hydrologic information and management objectives needed to solve the management problem. Used in conjunction with a mathematical programming code, the computer program identifies the pumping or recharge strategy that achieves a user 's management objective while maintaining groundwater hydraulic conditions within desired limits. The objective may be linear or quadratic, and may involve the minimization of pumping and recharge rates or of variable pumping costs. The problem may contain constraints on groundwater heads, gradients, and velocities for a complex, transient hydrologic system. Linear superposition of solutions to the transient, two-dimensional groundwater flow equation is used by the computer program in conjunction with the response matrix optimization method. A unit stress is applied at each decision well and transient responses at all control locations are computed using a modified version of the U.S. Geological Survey two dimensional aquifer simulation model. The program also computes discounted cost coefficients for the objective function and accounts for transient aquifer conditions. (Author 's abstract)

Preliminary Optimization for Spring-Run Chinook Salmon Environmental Flows in Lassen Foothill Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ta, J.; Kelsey, R.; Howard, J.; Hall, M.; Lund, J. R.; Viers, J. H.

2014-12-01

Stream flow controls physical and ecological processes in rivers that support freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity vital for services that humans depend on. This master variable has been impaired by human activities like dam operations, water diversions, and flood control infrastructure. Furthermore, increasing water scarcity due to rising water demands and droughts has further stressed these systems, calling for the need to find better ways to identify and allocate environmental flows. In this study, a linear optimization model was developed for environmental flows in river systems that have minimal or no regulation from dam operations, but still exhibit altered flow regimes due to surface water diversions and groundwater abstraction. Flow regime requirements for California Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) life history were used as a test case to examine how alterations to the timing and magnitude of water diversions meet environmental flow objectives while minimizing impact to local water supply. The model was then applied to Mill Creek, a tributary of the Sacramento River, in northern California, and its altered flow regime that currently impacts adult spring-run Chinook spawning and migration. The resulting optimized water diversion schedule can be used to inform water management decisions that aim to maximize benefit for the environment while meeting local water demands.

Spatial dynamics of ecosystem service flows: a comprehensive approach to quantifying actual services

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Johnson, Gary W.; Voigt, Brian; Villa, Ferdinando

2013-01-01

Recent ecosystem services research has highlighted the importance of spatial connectivity between ecosystems and their beneficiaries. Despite this need, a systematic approach to ecosystem service flow quantification has not yet emerged. In this article, we present such an approach, which we formalize as a class of agent-based models termed “Service Path Attribution Networks” (SPANs). These models, developed as part of the Artificial Intelligence for Ecosystem Services (ARIES) project, expand on ecosystem services classification terminology introduced by other authors. Conceptual elements needed to support flow modeling include a service's rivalness, its flow routing type (e.g., through hydrologic or transportation networks, lines of sight, or other approaches), and whether the benefit is supplied by an ecosystem's provision of a beneficial flow to people or by absorption of a detrimental flow before it reaches them. We describe our implementation of the SPAN framework for five ecosystem services and discuss how to generalize the approach to additional services. SPAN model outputs include maps of ecosystem service provision, use, depletion, and flows under theoretical, possible, actual, inaccessible, and blocked conditions. We highlight how these different ecosystem service flow maps could be used to support various types of decision making for conservation and resource management planning.

RECOVER - An Automated Burned Area Emergency Response Decision Support System for Post-fire Rehabilitation Management of Savanna Ecosystems in the Western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, K.; Schnase, J. L.; Carroll, M.; Brown, M. E.; Gill, R.; Haskett, G.; Gardner, T.

2013-12-01

In partnership with the Department of Interior's Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Idaho Department of Lands (IDL), we are building and evaluating the RECOVER decision support system. RECOVER - which stands for Rehabilitation Capability Convergence for Ecosystem Recovery - is an automatically deployable, context-aware decision support system for savanna wildfires that brings together in a single application the information necessary for post-fire rehabilitation decision-making and long-term ecosystem monitoring. RECOVER uses state-of-the-art cloud-based data management technologies to improve performance, reduce cost, and provide site-specific flexibility for each fire. The RECOVER Server uses Integrated Rule-Oriented Data System (iRODS) data grid technology deployed in the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2). The RECOVER Client is an Adobe Flex web map application that is able to provide a suite of convenient GIS analytical capabilities. In a typical use scenario, the RECOVER Server is provided a wildfire name and geospatial extent. The Server then automatically gathers Earth observational data and other relevant products from various geographically distributed data sources. The Server creates a database in the cloud where all relevant information about the wildfire is stored. This information is made available to the RECOVER Client and ultimately to fire managers through their choice of web browser. The Server refreshes the data throughout the burn and subsequent recovery period (3-5 years) with each refresh requiring two minutes to complete. Since remediation plans must be completed within 14 days of a fire's containment, RECOVER has the potential to significantly improve the decision-making process. RECOVER adds an important new dimension to post-fire decision-making by focusing on ecosystem rehabilitation in semiarid savannas. A novel aspect of RECOVER's approach involves the use of soil moisture estimates, which are an important but difficult-to-obtain element of post-fire rehabilitation planning. We will use downscaled soil moisture data from three primary observational sources to begin evaluation of soil moisture products and build the technology needed for RECOVER to use future SMAP products. As a result, RECOVER, BLM, and the fire applications community will be ready customers for data flowing out of new NASA missions, such as NPP, LDCM, and SMAP.

The effectiveness of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare: a systematic review.

PubMed

Sarkies, Mitchell N; Bowles, Kelly-Ann; Skinner, Elizabeth H; Haas, Romi; Lane, Haylee; Haines, Terry P

2017-11-14

It is widely acknowledged that health policy and management decisions rarely reflect research evidence. Therefore, it is important to determine how to improve evidence-informed decision-making. The primary aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the effectiveness of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare. The secondary aim of the review was to describe factors perceived to be associated with effective strategies and the inter-relationship between these factors. An electronic search was developed to identify studies published between January 01, 2000, and February 02, 2016. This was supplemented by checking the reference list of included articles, systematic reviews, and hand-searching publication lists from prominent authors. Two reviewers independently screened studies for inclusion, assessed methodological quality, and extracted data. After duplicate removal, the search strategy identified 3830 titles. Following title and abstract screening, 96 full-text articles were reviewed, of which 19 studies (21 articles) met all inclusion criteria. Three studies were included in the narrative synthesis, finding policy briefs including expert opinion might affect intended actions, and intentions persisting to actions for public health policy in developing nations. Workshops, ongoing technical assistance, and distribution of instructional digital materials may improve knowledge and skills around evidence-informed decision-making in US public health departments. Tailored, targeted messages were more effective in increasing public health policies and programs in Canadian public health departments compared to messages and a knowledge broker. Sixteen studies (18 articles) were included in the thematic synthesis, leading to a conceptualisation of inter-relating factors perceived to be associated with effective research implementation strategies. A unidirectional, hierarchal flow was described from (1) establishing an imperative for practice change, (2) building trust between implementation stakeholders and (3) developing a shared vision, to (4) actioning change mechanisms. This was underpinned by the (5) employment of effective communication strategies and (6) provision of resources to support change. Evidence is developing to support the use of research implementation strategies for promoting evidence-informed policy and management decisions in healthcare. The design of future implementation strategies should be based on the inter-relating factors perceived to be associated with effective strategies. This systematic review was registered with Prospero (record number: 42016032947).

Restoration of contaminated ecosystems: adaptive management in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farag, Aida; Larson, Diane L.; Stauber, Jenny; Stahl, Ralph; Isanhart, John; McAbee, Kevin T.; Walsh, Christopher J.

2017-01-01

Three case studies illustrate how adaptive management (AM) has been used in ecological restorations that involve contaminants. Contaminants addressed include mercury, selenium, and contaminants and physical disturbances delivered to streams by urban stormwater runoff. All three cases emphasize the importance of broad stakeholder input early and consistently throughout decision analysis for AM. Risk of contaminant exposure provided input to the decision analyses (e.g. selenium exposure to endangered razorback suckers, Stewart Lake; multiple contaminants in urban stormwater runoff, Melbourne) and was balanced with the protection of resources critical for a desired future state (e.g. preservation old growth trees, South River). Monitoring also played a critical role in the ability to conduct the decision analyses necessary for AM plans. For example, newer technologies in the Melbourne case provided a testable situation where contaminant concentrations and flow disturbance were reduced to support a return to good ecological condition. In at least one case (Stewart Lake), long-term monitoring data are being used to document the potential effects of climate change on a restoration trajectory. Decision analysis formalized the process by which stakeholders arrived at the priorities for the sites, which together constituted the desired future condition towards which each restoration is aimed. Alternative models were developed that described in mechanistic terms how restoration can influence the system towards the desired future condition. Including known and anticipated effects of future climate scenarios in these models will make them robust to the long-term exposure and effects of contaminants in restored ecosystems.

Optimizing water resources management in large river basins with integrated surface water-groundwater modeling: A surrogate-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Bin; Zheng, Yi; Wu, Xin; Tian, Yong; Han, Feng; Liu, Jie; Zheng, Chunmiao

2015-04-01

Integrated surface water-groundwater modeling can provide a comprehensive and coherent understanding on basin-scale water cycle, but its high computational cost has impeded its application in real-world management. This study developed a new surrogate-based approach, SOIM (Surrogate-based Optimization for Integrated surface water-groundwater Modeling), to incorporate the integrated modeling into water management optimization. Its applicability and advantages were evaluated and validated through an optimization research on the conjunctive use of surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) for irrigation in a semiarid region in northwest China. GSFLOW, an integrated SW-GW model developed by USGS, was employed. The study results show that, due to the strong and complicated SW-GW interactions, basin-scale water saving could be achieved by spatially optimizing the ratios of groundwater use in different irrigation districts. The water-saving potential essentially stems from the reduction of nonbeneficial evapotranspiration from the aqueduct system and shallow groundwater, and its magnitude largely depends on both water management schemes and hydrological conditions. Important implications for water resources management in general include: first, environmental flow regulation needs to take into account interannual variation of hydrological conditions, as well as spatial complexity of SW-GW interactions; and second, to resolve water use conflicts between upper stream and lower stream, a system approach is highly desired to reflect ecological, economic, and social concerns in water management decisions. Overall, this study highlights that surrogate-based approaches like SOIM represent a promising solution to filling the gap between complex environmental modeling and real-world management decision-making.

43 CFR 4190.1 - Effect of wildfire management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Effect of wildfire management decisions... ALASKA Effect of Wildfire Management Decisions § 4190.1 Effect of wildfire management decisions. (a... on the public lands are at substantial risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other...

43 CFR 4190.1 - Effect of wildfire management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Effect of wildfire management decisions... ALASKA Effect of Wildfire Management Decisions § 4190.1 Effect of wildfire management decisions. (a... on the public lands are at substantial risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other...

43 CFR 4190.1 - Effect of wildfire management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Effect of wildfire management decisions... ALASKA Effect of Wildfire Management Decisions § 4190.1 Effect of wildfire management decisions. (a... on the public lands are at substantial risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other...

43 CFR 4190.1 - Effect of wildfire management decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Effect of wildfire management decisions... ALASKA Effect of Wildfire Management Decisions § 4190.1 Effect of wildfire management decisions. (a... on the public lands are at substantial risk of wildfire due to drought, fuels buildup, or other...

Towards catchment classification in data-scarce regions

DOE PAGES

Auerbach, Daniel A.; Buchanan, Brian P.; Alexiades, Alex V.; ...

2016-01-29

Assessing spatial variation in hydrologic processes can help to inform freshwater management and advance ecological understanding, yet many areas lack sufficient flow records on which to base classifications. Seeking to address this challenge, we apply concepts developed in data-rich settings to public, global data in order to demonstrate a broadly replicable approach to characterizing hydrologic variation. The proposed approach groups the basins associated with reaches in a river network according to key environmental drivers of hydrologic conditions. This initial study examines Colorado (USA), where long-term streamflow records permit comparison to previously distinguished flow regime types, and the Republic of Ecuador,more » where data limitations preclude such analysis. The flow regime types assigned to gages in Colorado corresponded reasonably well to the classes distinguished from environmental features. The divisions in Ecuador reflected major known biophysical gradients while also providing a higher resolution supplement to an existing depiction of freshwater ecoregions. Although freshwater policy and management decisions occur amidst uncertainty and imperfect knowledge, this classification framework offers a rigorous and transferrable means to distinguish catchments in data-scarce regions. The maps and attributes of the resulting ecohydrologic classes offer a departure point for additional study and data collection programs such as the placement of stations in under-monitored classes, and the divisions may serve as a preliminary template with which to structure conservation efforts such as environmental flow assessments.« less

Many-Objective Reservoir Policy Identification and Refinement to Reduce Institutional Myopia in Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, M.; Herman, J. D.; Castelletti, A.; Reed, P. M.

2013-12-01

Institutional inertia strongly limits our ability to adapt water reservoir operations to better manage growing water demands as well as their associated uncertainties in a changing climate. Although it has long been recognized that these systems are generally framed in heterogeneous socio-economic contexts involving a myriad of conflicting, non-commensurable operating objectives, our broader understanding of the multiobjective consequences of current operating rules as well as their vulnerability to hydroclimatic uncertainties is severely limited. This study proposes a decision analytic framework to overcome policy inertia and myopia in complex river basin management contexts. The framework combines reservoir policy identification and many-objective optimization under uncertainty to characterize current operations and discover key tradeoffs between alternative policies for balancing evolving demands and system uncertainties. The approach is demonstrated on the Conowingo Dam, located within the Lower Susquehanna River, USA. The Lower Susquehanna River is an interstate water body that has been subject to intensive water management efforts due to the system's competing demands from urban water supply, atomic power plant cooling, hydropower production, and federally regulated environmental flows. Initially our proposed framework uses available streamflow observations to implicitly identify the Conowingo Dam's current but unknown operating policy. This baseline policy is identified by fitting radial basis functions to existing system dynamics. Our assumption in the baseline policy is that the dam operator is represented as a rational agent seeking to maximize primary operational objectives (i.e., guaranteeing the public water supply and maximizing the hydropower revenue). The quality of the identified baseline policy is evaluated by its ability to replicate historical release dynamics. Once identified, the historical baseline policy then provides a means of representing the decision preferences guiding current operations. Our results show that the estimated policy closely captures the dynamics of current releases and flows for the Lower Susquehanna. After identifying the historical baseline policy, our proposed decision analytic framework then combines evolutionary many-objective optimization with visual analytics to discover improved operating policies. Our Lower Susquehanna results confirm that the system's current history-based operations are negatively biased to overestimate the reliability of the reservoir's multi-sector services. Moreover, our proposed framework has successfully identified alternative reservoir policies that are more robust to hydroclimatic uncertainties while being capable of better addressing the tradeoffs across the Conowingo Dam's multi-sector services.

Description of inpatient medication management using cognitive work analysis.

PubMed

Pingenot, Alleene Anne; Shanteau, James; Sengstacke, L T C Daniel N

2009-01-01

The purpose of this article was to describe key elements of an inpatient medication system using the cognitive work analysis method of Rasmussen et al (Cognitive Systems Engineering. Wiley Series in Systems Engineering; 1994). The work of nurses and physicians were observed in routine care of inpatients on a medical-surgical unit and attached ICU. Interaction with pharmacists was included. Preoperative, postoperative, and medical care was observed. Personnel were interviewed to obtain information not easily observable during routine work. Communication between healthcare workers was projected onto an abstraction/decomposition hierarchy. Decision ladders and information flow charts were developed. Results suggest that decision making on an inpatient medical/surgical unit or ICU setting is a parallel, distributed process. Personnel are highly mobile and often are working on multiple issues concurrently. In this setting, communication is key to maintaining organization and synchronization for effective care. Implications for research approaches to system and interface designs and decision support for personnel involved in the process are discussed.

What's it worth? A general manager's guide to valuation.

PubMed

Luehrman, T A

1997-01-01

Behind every major resource-allocation decision a company makes lies some calculation of what that move is worth. So it is not surprising that valuation is the financial analytical skill general managers want to learn more than any other. Managers whose formal training is more than a few years old, however, are likely to have learned approaches that are becoming obsolete. What do generalists need in an updated valuation tool kit? In the 1970s, discounted-cash-flow analysis (DCF) emerged as best practice for valuing corporate assets. And one version of DCF-using the weighted-average cost of capital (WACC)-became the standard. Over the years, WACC has been used by most companies as a one-size-fits-all valuation tool. Today the WACC standard is insufficient. Improvements in computers and new theoretical insights have given rise to tools that outperform WACC in the three basic types of valuation problems managers face. Timothy Luehrman presents an overview of the three tools, explaining how they work and when to use them. For valuing operations, the DCF methodology of adjusted present value allows managers to break a problem into pieces that make managerial sense. For valuing opportunities, option pricing captures the contingent nature of investments in areas such as R&D and marketing. And for valuing ownership claims, the tool of equity cash flows helps managers value their company's stake in a joint venture, a strategic alliance, or an investment that uses project financing.

Designing a Decision Support System (DSS) for Academic Library Managers Using Preprogrammed Application Software on a Microcomputer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McDonald, Joseph

1986-01-01

Focusing on management decisions in academic libraries, this article compares management information systems (MIS) with decision support systems (DSS) and discusses the decision-making process, information needs of library managers, sources of data, reasons for choosing microcomputer, preprogrammed application software, prototyping a system, and…

Modelling strategies to predict the multi-scale effects of rural land management change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulygina, N.; Ballard, C. E.; Jackson, B. M.; McIntyre, N.; Marshall, M.; Reynolds, B.; Wheater, H. S.

2011-12-01

Changes to the rural landscape due to agricultural land management are ubiquitous, yet predicting the multi-scale effects of land management change on hydrological response remains an important scientific challenge. Much empirical research has been of little generic value due to inadequate design and funding of monitoring programmes, while the modelling issues challenge the capability of data-based, conceptual and physics-based modelling approaches. In this paper we report on a major UK research programme, motivated by a national need to quantify effects of agricultural intensification on flood risk. Working with a consortium of farmers in upland Wales, a multi-scale experimental programme (from experimental plots to 2nd order catchments) was developed to address issues of upland agricultural intensification. This provided data support for a multi-scale modelling programme, in which highly detailed physics-based models were conditioned on the experimental data and used to explore effects of potential field-scale interventions. A meta-modelling strategy was developed to represent detailed modelling in a computationally-efficient manner for catchment-scale simulation; this allowed catchment-scale quantification of potential management options. For more general application to data-sparse areas, alternative approaches were needed. Physics-based models were developed for a range of upland management problems, including the restoration of drained peatlands, afforestation, and changing grazing practices. Their performance was explored using literature and surrogate data; although subject to high levels of uncertainty, important insights were obtained, of practical relevance to management decisions. In parallel, regionalised conceptual modelling was used to explore the potential of indices of catchment response, conditioned on readily-available catchment characteristics, to represent ungauged catchments subject to land management change. Although based in part on speculative relationships, significant predictive power was derived from this approach. Finally, using a formal Bayesian procedure, these different sources of information were combined with local flow data in a catchment-scale conceptual model application , i.e. using small-scale physical properties, regionalised signatures of flow and available flow measurements.

Improved water resource management using three dimensional groundwater modelling for a highly complex environmental

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moeck, Christian; Affolter, Annette; Radny, Dirk; Auckenthaler, Adrian; Huggenberger, Peter; Schirmer, Mario

2017-04-01

Proper allocation and management of groundwater is an important and critical challenge under rising water demands of various environmental sectors but good groundwater quality is often limited because of urbanization and contamination of aquifers. Given the predictive capability of groundwater models, they are often the only viable means of providing input to water management decisions. However, modelling flow and transport processes can be difficult due to their unknown subsurface heterogeneity and typically unknown distribution of contaminants. As a result water resource management tasks are based on uncertain assumption on contaminants patterns and this uncertainty is typically not incorporated into the assessment of risks associated with different proposed management scenarios. A three-dimensional groundwater model was used to improve water resource management for a study area, where drinking water production is close to different former landfills and industrial areas. To avoid drinking water contamination, artificial groundwater recharge with surface water into the gravel aquifer is used to create a hydraulic barrier between contaminated sites and drinking water extraction wells. The model was used for simulating existing and proposed water management strategies as a tool to ensure the utmost security for drinking water. A systematic evaluation of the flow direction and magnitude between existing observation points using a newly developed three point estimation method for a large amount of scenarios was carried out. Due to the numerous observation points 32 triangles (three-points) were created which cover the entire area around the Hardwald. We demonstrated that systematically applying our developed methodology helps to identify important locations which are sensitive to changing boundary conditions and where additional protection is required without highly computational demanding transport modelling. The presented integrated approach using the flow direction between observation points can be easily transferred to a variety of hydrological settings to evaluate systematically groundwater modelling scenarios.

Integrating info-gap decision theory with robust population management: a case study using the Mountain Plover.

PubMed

van der Burg, Max Post; Tyre, Andrew J

2011-01-01

Wildlife managers often make decisions under considerable uncertainty. In the most extreme case, a complete lack of data leads to uncertainty that is unquantifiable. Information-gap decision theory deals with assessing management decisions under extreme uncertainty, but it is not widely used in wildlife management. So too, robust population management methods were developed to deal with uncertainties in multiple-model parameters. However, the two methods have not, as yet, been used in tandem to assess population management decisions. We provide a novel combination of the robust population management approach for matrix models with the information-gap decision theory framework for making conservation decisions under extreme uncertainty. We applied our model to the problem of nest survival management in an endangered bird species, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus). Our results showed that matrix sensitivities suggest that nest management is unlikely to have a strong effect on population growth rate, confirming previous analyses. However, given the amount of uncertainty about adult and juvenile survival, our analysis suggested that maximizing nest marking effort was a more robust decision to maintain a stable population. Focusing on the twin concepts of opportunity and robustness in an information-gap model provides a useful method of assessing conservation decisions under extreme uncertainty.

Optimizing medicines management: From compliance to concordance

PubMed Central

Cushing, Annie; Metcalfe, Richard

2007-01-01

Medication prescribed but not consumed represents a huge loss in drug and prescribing costs and an enormous waste of expensive medical time. In this article we discuss what is known about compliance and adherence, explore the concept of concordance and demonstrate its fundamental difference from both. Not all patients are ready or suitable for shared decision making in management of their condition, some still preferring a doctor-led decision but an increasing number want a partnership approach. By opening up and rebalancing the discussion about medication, we can expect a consultation which is more satisfying for both parties and flowing from this, more effective, focused prescribing of medication which is more likely to be adhered to by the patient. We examine the extent to which doctor and patient behaviors are currently compatible with this change of concept and practice, look at available consultation models which might be useful to the reflective practitioner and consider what actions on the part of the doctor and the healthcare system could promote medicine prescription and utilization in line with this new approach based on partnership. PMID:18516274

Earth Observation Data Quality Monitoring and Control: A Case Study of STAR Central Data Repository

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Jochum, M.

2017-12-01

Earth observation data quality is very important for researchers and decision makers involved in weather forecasting, severe weather warning, disaster and emergency response, environmental monitoring, etc. Monitoring and control earth observation data quality, especially accuracy, completeness, and timeliness, is very useful in data management and governance to optimize data flow, discover potential transmission issues, and better connect data providers and users. Taking a centralized near real-time satellite data repository, STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research of NOAA) Central Data Repository (SCDR), as an example, this paper describes how to develop new mechanism to verify data integrity, check data completeness, and monitor data latency in an operational data management system. Such quality monitoring and control of large volume satellite data help data providers and managers improve data transmission of near real-time satellite data, enhance its acquisition and management, and overcome performance and management issues to better serve research and development activities.

Managing water and riparian habitats on the Bill Williams River with scientific benefit for other desert river systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

John Hickey,; Woodrow Fields,; Andrew Hautzinger,; Steven Sesnie,; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Dick Gilbert,

2016-01-01

This report details modeling to: 1) codify flow-ecology relationships for riparian species of the Bill Williams River as operational guidance for water managers, 2) test the guidance under different climate scenarios, and 3) revise the operational guidance as needed to address the effects of climate change. Model applications detailed herein include the River Analysis System  (HEC-RAS) and the Ecosystem Functions Model  (HEC-EFM), which was used to generate more than three million estimates of local seedling recruitment areas. Areas were aggregated and compared to determine which scenarios generated the most seedling area per unit volume of water. Scenarios that maximized seedling area were grouped into a family of curves that serve as guidance for water managers. This work has direct connections to water management decision-making and builds upon and adds to the rich history of science-based management for the Bill Williams River, Arizona, USA. 

Establishing a Conceptual Foundation for Addressing Challenges Facing Food-Energy-Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldsby, M.; Padowski, J.; Katz, S.; Brady, M.; Hampton, S. E.

2017-12-01

Ensuring the security of food, energy and water in the face of a changing environment is a top societal priority. In order to make sound policy decisions aimed at meeting those needs, policy-makers need decision-relevant information. As such, considerable effort and resources have recently been devoted to investigating the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Nexus in order to better provide that information. However, despite the increased research activity into FEW systems and FEW problems, little attention has been devoted to the fundamental conceptual issues underlying contemporary FEW systems. Consequently, this inattention has led to conceptual confusion about what is and what is not a FEW system. This project aims to fill that lacuna in order to better facilitate the FEW research agenda. Toward that end, we identify three features that distinguish FEW problems from other resource management problems: (1) the production and management of the resources in each sector of a FEW system is specialized to its own sector; (2) interdependencies exist between sectors such that overproduction in one sector, for example, may have impacts on other sectors; and (3) there are real limits to FEW resource availability as well as limits on the ability to transact across sector boundaries. We contend that once armed with this distinction, one can model the stocks and flows of FEW capital in a conceptually rigorous way that may lead to operational innovations of FEW management.

Modeling Water Resource Systems Accounting for Water-Related Energy Use, GHG Emissions and Water-Dependent Energy Generation in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escriva-Bou, A.; Lund, J. R.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Medellin-Azuara, J.

2015-12-01

Most individual processes relating water and energy interdependence have been assessed in many different ways over the last decade. It is time to step up and include the results of these studies in management by proportionating a tool for integrating these processes in decision-making to effectively understand the tradeoffs between water and energy from management options and scenarios. A simple but powerful decision support system (DSS) for water management is described that includes water-related energy use and GHG emissions not solely from the water operations, but also from final water end uses, including demands from cities, agriculture, environment and the energy sector. Because one of the main drivers of energy use and GHG emissions is water pumping from aquifers, the DSS combines a surface water management model with a simple groundwater model, accounting for their interrelationships. The model also explicitly includes economic data to optimize water use across sectors during shortages and calculate return flows from different uses. Capabilities of the DSS are demonstrated on a case study over California's intertied water system. Results show that urban end uses account for most GHG emissions of the entire water cycle, but large water conveyance produces significant peaks over the summer season. Also the development of more efficient water application on the agricultural sector has increased the total energy consumption and the net water use in the basins.

Patient participation, decision-makers and information flow in surgical treatment.

PubMed

Heggland, Liv-Helen; Hausken, Kjell

2014-05-01

To clarify patient participation by specifying three kinds of information flows between healthcare professionals and patients in four models such as the paternalistic, shared, informed and nonpaternalistic models. The relationship between healthcare professionals and patients has evolved from a traditional paternalistic model where 'doctors know best' and patients are passive recipients, to a partnership where patients act as active participants. A qualitative study. Qualitative data from interviews with four doctors, seven nurses and seven patients illustrate these relationships. A 3 × 3 matrix is developed where healthcare professionals can make decisions unilaterally, patients can make decisions unilaterally, or these can make decisions jointly. Information can flow from healthcare professionals to patient, from patient to healthcare professionals or both ways. This conceptualisation provides a rich understanding of decision-making and information flow in surgical hospitals. The paper illustrates how practice can be assessed empirically to determine how it fits into the structure. Strategies can be implemented to move practice from one part of the structure to another part. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Information gathering, management and transferring for geospatial intelligence - A conceptual approach to create a spatial data infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, Paulo; Correia, Anacleto; Teodoro, M. Filomena

2017-06-01

Since long ago, information is a key factor for military organizations. In military context the success of joint and combined operations depends on the accurate information and knowledge flow concerning the operational theatre: provision of resources, environment evolution, targets' location, where and when an event will occur. Modern military operations cannot be conceive without maps and geospatial information. Staffs and forces on the field request large volume of information during the planning and execution process, horizontal and vertical geospatial information integration is critical for decision cycle. Information and knowledge management are fundamental to clarify an environment full of uncertainty. Geospatial information (GI) management rises as a branch of information and knowledge management, responsible for the conversion process from raw data collect by human or electronic sensors to knowledge. Geospatial information and intelligence systems allow us to integrate all other forms of intelligence and act as a main platform to process and display geospatial-time referenced events. Combining explicit knowledge with person know-how to generate a continuous learning cycle that supports real time decisions, mitigates the influences of fog of war and provides the knowledge supremacy. This paper presents the analysis done after applying a questionnaire and interviews about the GI and intelligence management in a military organization. The study intended to identify the stakeholder's requirements for a military spatial data infrastructure as well as the requirements for a future software system development.

Irrigating The Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamson, D.

2017-12-01

Water insecurity and water inequality are international issues that reduce economic growth. Countries are adopting alternative approaches to rebalance the share of water between all users to mitigate economic loss for this and future generations. However, recent reforms have struggled to provide the necessary arguments to obtain political protection of the process. In the absence of proof, rent-seeking arguments have challenged the benefit of restoring environmental flows by arguing that policy design fails to maximise the environmental benefits. This is a problem in Australia's Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), where despite establishing 3,200GL of environmental water, the policy is still under threat. Applied water economic policy advice fails, when it does not deal with uncertainty. The state-contingent analysis approach can map how individual decision makers can adapt to alternative states of water supply (i.e. drought, normal and wet) by reallocating inputs to obtain state-described outputs. By modelling changes to the states, or the frequency of the states occurring, climate change can modelled, and decision management responses explored. By treating the environment as another set of production systems, lessons learnt from managing perennial and annual agricultural production systems during the Millennium Drought in the MDB can be applied to explore the limits of irrigating the environment. The demand for water by a production system is a combination of state-general (must be irrigated every year e.g. perennial crop or permanent wetland) and state specific inputs (irrigate in response to the realise state). In simple terms, the greater the component of state-general water requirements a production system has, the less resilience it has when water supply is highly variable and if water is not available then production systems are irreversibly lost. While production systems that only need state-allocable water can adapt to alternative levels of scarcity without irreversible losses. This relationship then helps evaluate the alternative strategies for as environmental manager to maximise the gains from environmental flows. By utilizing a directed flow network, the trade-offs between hard and soft targets, and trading between alternative water users can be explored.

How Managers' everyday decisions create or destroy your company's strategy.

PubMed

Bower, Joseph L; Gilbert, Clark G

2007-02-01

Senior executives have long been frustrated by the disconnection between the plans and strategies they devise and the actual behavior of the managers throughout the company. This article approaches the problem from the ground up, recognizing that every time a manager allocates resources, that decision moves the company either into or out of alignment with its announced strategy. A well-known story--Intel's exit from the memory business--illustrates this point. When discussing what businesses Intel should be in, Andy Grove asked Gordon Moore what they would do if Intel were a company that they had just acquired. When Moore answered, "Get out of memory," they decided to do just that. It turned out, though, that Intel's revenues from memory were by this time only 4% of total sales. Intel's lower-level managers had already exited the business. What Intel hadn't done was to shut down the flow of research funding into memory (which was still eating up one-third of all research expenditures); nor had the company announced its exit to the outside world. Because divisional and operating managers-as well as customers and capital markets-have such a powerful impact on the realized strategy of the firm, senior management might consider focusing less on the company's formal strategy and more on the processes by which the company allocates resources. Top managers must know the track record of the people who are making resource allocation proposals; recognize the strategic issues at stake; reach down to operational managers to work across division lines; frame resource questions to reflect the corporate perspective, especially when large sums of money are involved and conditions are highly uncertain; and create a new context that allows top executives to circumvent the regular resource allocation process when necessary.

Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

Treesearch

Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy Ascher

2011-01-01

Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

Sustainable MSD prevention: management for continuous improvement between prevention and production. Ergonomic intervention in two assembly line companies.

PubMed

Caroly, S; Coutarel, F; Landry, A; Mary-Cheray, I

2010-07-01

To increase output and meet customers' needs, companies have turned to the development of production management systems: Kaizen, one piece flow, Kanban, etc. The aim of such systems is to accelerate decisions, react to environmental issues and manage various productions. In the main, this type of management system has led to the continuous improvement of production performance. Consequently, such production management systems can have unexpected negative effects on operators' health and safety. Conversely, regulation and control systems focusing on work-related risks have obliged firms to implement health and safety management systems such as OHSAS 18001. The purpose of this type of system, also based on continuous improvement, is to reduce risks, facilitate work-related activities and identify solutions in terms of equipment and tools. However, the prevention actions introduced through health and safety systems often result in other unexpected and unwanted effects on production. This paper shows how companies can improve the way they are run by taking into account both types of management system. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aquatic Habitat Studies on the Lower Mississippi River, River Mile 480 to 530. Report 7. Management of Ecological Data in Large River Ecosystems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

operational. Many times at the startup of a project, variable selection and research data formats are often tentative because of the unknown biological...previously. This flow of data is shown in Figure 1. ELPROGI also made quality control decisions; when a variable for a given observation failed a...a series MENT OF ECOLOGICAL DATA IN LARGE RIVER ECOSYSTEMS s. PERFORMING ONG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTNOlt.s) S. CONTRACT O GRANT N UNMSE-) Michael P

Gray-box reservoir routing to compute flow propagation in operational forecasting and decision support systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russano, Euan; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo

2017-04-01

Operational forecasting and decision support systems for flood mitigation and the daily management of water resources require computationally efficient flow routing models. If backwater effects do not play an important role, a hydrological routing approach is often a pragmatic choice. It offers a reasonable accuracy at low computational costs in comparison to a more detailed hydraulic model. This work presents a nonlinear reservoir routing scheme as well as its implementation for the flow propagation between the hydro reservoir Três Marias and a downstream inundation-affected city Pirapora in Brazil. We refer to the model as a gray-box approach due to the identification of the parameter k by a data-driven approach for each reservoir of the cascade, instead of using estimates based on physical characteristics. The model reproduces the discharge at the gauge Pirapora, using 15 reservoirs in the cascade. The obtained results are compared with the ones obtained from the full-hydrodynamic model SOBEK. Results show a relatively good performance for the validation period, with a RMSE of 139.48 for the gray-box model, while the full-hydrodynamic model shows a RMSE of 136.67. The simulation time for a period of several years for the full-hydrodynamic took approximately 64s, while the gray-box model only required about 0.50s. This provides a significant speedup of the computation by only a little trade-off in accuracy, pointing at the potential of the simple approach in the context of time-critical, operational applications. Key-words: flow routing, reservoir routing, gray-box model

Structured decision making: Chapter 5

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III

2013-01-01

Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

Modelling white-water rafting suitability in a hydropower regulated Alpine River.

PubMed

Carolli, Mauro; Zolezzi, Guido; Geneletti, Davide; Siviglia, Annunziato; Carolli, Fabiano; Cainelli, Oscar

2017-02-01

Cultural and recreational river ecosystem services and their relations with the flow regime are still poorly investigated. We develop a modelling-based approach to assess recreational flow requirements and the spatially distributed river suitability for white-water rafting, a typical service offered by mountain streams, with potential conflicts of interest with hydropower regulation. The approach is based on the principles of habitat suitability modelling using water depth as the main attribute, with preference curves defined through interviews with local rafting guides. The methodology allows to compute streamflow thresholds for conditions of suitability and optimality of a river reach in relation to rafting. Rafting suitability response to past, present and future flow management scenarios can be predicted on the basis of a hydrological model, which is incorporated in the methodology and is able to account for anthropic effects. Rafting suitability is expressed through a novel metric, the "Rafting hydro-suitability index" (RHSI) which quantifies the cumulative duration of suitable and optimal conditions for rafting. The approach is applied on the Noce River (NE Italy), an Alpine River regulated by hydropower production and affected by hydropeaking, which influences suitability at a sub-daily scale. A dedicated algorithm is developed within the hydrological model to resemble hydropeaking conditions with daily flow data. In the Noce River, peak flows associated with hydropeaking support rafting activities in late summer, highlighting the dual nature of hydropeaking in regulated rivers. Rafting suitability is slightly reduced under present, hydropower-regulated flow conditions compared to an idealized flow regime characterised by no water abstractions. Localized water abstractions for small, run-of-the-river hydropower plants are predicted to negatively affect rafting suitability. The proposed methodology can be extended to support decision making for flow management in hydropower regulated streams, as it has the potential to quantify the response of different ecosystem services to flow regulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conceptualizing and communicating ecological river restoration: Chapter 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Berkley, Jim

2011-01-01

We present a general conceptual model for communicating aspects of river restoration and management. The model is generic and adaptable to most riverine settings, independent of size. The model has separate categories of natural and social-economic drivers, and management actions are envisioned as modifiers of naturally dynamic systems. The model includes a decision-making structure in which managers, stakeholders, and scientists interact to define management objectives and performance evaluation. The model depicts a stress to the riverine ecosystem as either (1) deviation in the regimes (flow, sediment, temperature, light, biogeochemical, and genetic) by altering the frequency, magnitude, duration, timing, or rate of change of the fluxes or (2) imposition of a hard structural constraint on channel form. Restoration is depicted as naturalization of those regimes or removal of the constraint. The model recognizes the importance of river history in conditioning future responses. Three hierarchical tiers of essential ecosystem characteristics (EECs) illustrate how management actions typically propagate through physical/chemical processes to habitat to biotic responses. Uncertainty and expense in modeling or measuring responses increase in moving from tiers 1 to 3. Social-economic characteristics are shown in a parallel structure that emphasizes the need to quantify trade-offs between ecological and social-economic systems. Performance measures for EECs are also hierarchical, showing that selection of measures depend on participants’ willingness to accept uncertainty. The general form is of an adaptive management loop in which the performance measures are compared to reference conditions or success criteria and the information is fed back into the decision-making process.

Dynamic waste management (DWM): towards an evolutionary decision-making approach.

PubMed

Rojo, Gabriel; Glaus, Mathias; Laforest, Valerie; Laforest, Valérie; Bourgois, Jacques; Bourgeois, Jacques; Hausler, Robert

2013-12-01

To guarantee sustainable and dynamic waste management, the dynamic waste management approach (DWM) suggests an evolutionary new approach that maintains a constant flow towards the most favourable waste treatment processes (facilities) within a system. To that end, DWM is based on the law of conservation of energy, which allows the balancing of a network, while considering the constraints of incoming (h1 ) and outgoing (h2 ) loads, as well as the distribution network (ΔH) characteristics. The developed approach lies on the identification of the prioritization index (PI) for waste generators (analogy to h1 ), a global allocation index for each of the treatment processes (analogy to h2 ) and the linear index load loss (ΔH) associated with waste transport. To demonstrate the scope of DWM, we outline this approach, and then present an example of its application. The case study shows that the variable monthly waste from the three considered sources is dynamically distributed in priority to the more favourable processes. Moreover, the reserve (stock) helps temporarily store waste in order to ease the global load of the network and favour a constant feeding of the treatment processes. The DWM approach serves as a decision-making tool by evaluating new waste treatment processes, as well as their location and new means of transport for waste.

Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goebel, Kai; Saxena, Abhinav; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita

2012-01-01

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by providing a reliable estimate of future system states. This estimate is a key for planning and decision making in an operational setting. While technology solutions have made considerable advances, the tie-in into the systems engineering process is lagging behind, which delays fielding of PHM-enabled systems. The derivation of specifications from high level requirements for algorithm performance to ensure quality predictions is not well developed. From an engineering perspective some key parameters driving the requirements for prognostics performance include: (1) maximum allowable Probability of Failure (PoF) of the prognostic system to bound the risk of losing an asset, (2) tolerable limits on proactive maintenance to minimize missed opportunity of asset usage, (3) lead time to specify the amount of advanced warning needed for actionable decisions, and (4) required confidence to specify when prognosis is sufficiently good to be used. This paper takes a systems engineering view towards the requirements specification process and presents a method for the flowdown process. A case study based on an electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (e-UAV) scenario demonstrates how top level requirements for performance, cost, and safety flow down to the health management level and specify quantitative requirements for prognostic algorithm performance.

Factors Influencing the Decisions and Actions of Pilots and Air Traffic Controllers in Three Plausible NextGen Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vu, Kim-Phuong L.; Strybel, Thomas Z.; Battiste, Vernol; Johnson, Walter

2011-01-01

In the current air traffic management (ATM) system, pilots and air traffic controllers have well-established roles and responsibilities: pilots fly aircraft and are concerned with energy management, fuel efficiency, and passenger comfort; controllers separate aircraft and are concerned with safety and management of traffic flows. Despite having different goals and obligations, both groups must be able to effectively communicate and interact with each other for the ATM system to work. This interaction will become even more challenging as traffic volume increases dramatically in the near future. To accommodate this increase, by 2025 the national air transportation system in the U.S. will go through a transformation that will modernize the ATM system and make it safer, more effective, and more efficient. This new system, NextGen, will change how pilots and controllers perform their tasks by incorporating advanced technologies and employing new procedures. It will also distribute responsibility between pilots, controllers and automation over such tasks as maintaining aircraft separation. The present chapter describes three plausible concepts of operations that allocate different ATM responsibilities to these groups. We describe how each concept changes the role of each operator and the types of decisions and actions performed by them.

Applying total quality management concepts to public health organizations.

PubMed Central

Kaluzny, A D; McLaughlin, C P; Simpson, K

1992-01-01

Total quality management (TQM) is a participative, systematic approach to planning and implementing a continuous organizational improvement process. Its approach is focused on satisfying customers' expectations, identifying problems, building commitment, and promoting open decision-making among workers. TQM applies analytical tools, such as flow and statistical charts and check sheets, to gather data about activities within an organization. TQM uses process techniques, such as nominal groups, brainstorming, and consensus forming to facilitate communication and decision making. TQM applications in the public sector and particularly in public health agencies have been limited. The process of integrating TQM into public health agencies complements and enhances the Model Standards Program and assessment methodologies, such as the Assessment Protocol for Excellence in Public Health (APEX-PH), which are mechanisms for establishing strategic directions for public health. The authors examine the potential for using TQM as a method to achieve and exceed standards quickly and efficiently. They discuss the relationship of performance standards and assessment methodologies with TQM and provide guidelines for achieving the full potential of TQM in public health organizations. The guidelines include redefining the role of management, defining a common corporate culture, refining the role of citizen oversight functions, and setting realistic estimates of the time needed to complete a task or project. PMID:1594734

Warm Season Storms, Floods, and Tributary Sand Inputs below Glen Canyon Dam: Investigating Salience to Adaptive Management in the Context of a 10-Year Long Controlled Flooding Experiment in Grand Canyon National Park, AZ, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, S.; Melis, T. S.; Topping, D. J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Eischeid, J.

2013-12-01

The planning and decision processes in the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (GCDAMP) strive to balance numerous, often competing, objectives, such as, water supply, hydropower generation, low flow maintenance, maximizing conservation of downstream tributary sand supply, endangered native fish, and other sociocultural resources of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park. In this context, use of monitored and predictive information on the warm season floods (at point-to-regional scales) has been identified as lead-information for a new 10-year long controlled flooding experiment (termed the High-Flow Experiment Protocol) intended to determine management options for rebuilding and maintaining sandbars in Grand Canyon; an adaptive strategy that can potentially facilitate improved planning and dam operations. In this work, we focus on a key concern identified by the GCDAMP, related to the timing and volume of tributary sand input from the Paria and Little Colorado Rivers (located 26 and 124 km below the dam, respectively) into the Colorado River in Grand Canyon National Park. Episodic and intraseasonal variations (with links to equatorial and sub-tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability) in the southwest hydroclimatology are investigated to understand the magnitude, timing and spatial scales of warm season floods from this relatively small, but prolific sand producing drainage of the semi-arid Colorado Plateau. The coupled variations of the flood-driven sediment input (magnitude and timing) from these two drainages into the Colorado River are also investigated. The physical processes, including diagnosis of storms and moisture sources, are mapped alongside the planning and decision processes for the ongoing experimental flood releases from the Glen Canyon Dam which are aimed at achieving restoration and maintenance of sandbars and instream ecology. The GCDAMP represents one of the most visible and widely recognized adaptive management efforts in the world to manage resources under growing environmental uncertainty as climate change and global warming continues.

Simulating land-use changes and stormwater-detention basins and evaluating their effect on peak streamflows and stream-water quality in Irondequoit Creek basin, New York—A user's manual for HSPF and GenScn

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.

2003-01-01

A computer model of hydrologic and water-quality processes of the Irondequoit Creek basin in Monroe and Ontario Counties, N.Y., was developed during 2000-02 to enable water-resources managers to simulate the effects of future development and stormwater-detention basins on peak flows and water quality of Irondequoit Creek and its tributaries. The model was developed with the program Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) such that proposed or hypothetical land-use changes and instream stormwater-detention basins could be simulated, and their effects on peak flows and loads of total suspended solids, total phosphorus, ammonia-plus-organic nitrogen, and nitrate-plus-nitrite nitrogen could be analyzed, through an interactive computer program known as Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios for Watersheds (GenScn). This report is a user's manual written to guide the Irondequoit Creek Watershed Collaborative in (1) the creation of land-use and flow-detention scenarios for simulation by the HSPF model, and (2) the use of GenScn to analyze the results of these simulations. These analyses can, in turn, aid the group in making basin-wide water-resources-management decisions.

Thermal Simulation of a Zero Energy Glazed Pavilion in Sofia, Bulgaria. New Strategies for Energy Management by Means of Water Flow Glazing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Ama Gonzalo, Fernando; Hernandez Ramos, Juan A.; Moreno, Belen

2017-10-01

The building sector is primarily responsible for a major part of total energy consumption. The European Energy Performance of Buildings Directives (EPBD) emphasized the need to reduce the energy consumption in buildings, and put forward the rationale for developing Near to Zero Energy Buildings (NZEB). Passive and active strategies help architects to minimize the use of active HVAC systems, taking advantage of the available natural resources such as solar radiation, thermal variability and daylight. The building envelope plays a decisive role in passive and active design strategies. The ideal transparent façade would be one with optical properties, such as Solar Heat Gain Coefficient (SHGC) and Visible Transmittance (VT), that could readily adapt in response to changing climatic conditions or occupant preferences. The aim of this article consists of describing the system to maintain a small glazed pavilion located in Sofia (Bulgaria) at the desired interior temperature over a whole year. The system comprises i) the use of Water Flow Glazing facades (WFG) and Radiant Interior Walls (RIW), ii) the use of free cooling devices along with traditional heat pump connected to photo-voltaic panels and iii) the use of a new Energy Management System that collects data and acts accordingly by controlling all components. The effect of these strategies and the use of active systems, like Water Flow Glazing, are analysed by means of simulating the prototype over one year. Summer and Winter energy management strategies are discussed in order to change the SHGC value of the Water Flow Glazing and thus, reduce the required energy to maintain comfort conditions.

IMPRESS: medical location-aware decision making during emergencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gkotsis, I.; Eftychidis, G.; Leventakis, G.; Mountzouris, M.; Diagourtas, D.; Kostaridis, A.; Hedel, R.; Olunczek, A.; Hahmann, S.

2017-09-01

Emergency situations and mass casualties involve several agencies and public authorities, which need to gather data from the incident scene and exchange geo-referenced information to provide fast and accurate first aid to the people in need. Tracking patients on their way to the hospitals can prove critical in taking lifesaving decisions. Increased and continuous flow of information combined by vital signs and geographic location of emergency victims can greatly reduce the response time of the medical emergency chain and improve the efficiency of disaster medicine activity. Recent advances in mobile positioning systems and telecommunications are providing the technology needed for the development of location-aware medical applications. IMPRESS is an advanced ICT platform based on adequate technologies for developing location-aware medical response during emergencies. The system incorporates mobile and fixed components that collect field data from diverse sources, support medical location and situation-based services and share information on the patient's transport from the field to the hospitals. In IMPRESS platform tracking of victims, ambulances and emergency services vehicles is integrated with medical, traffic and crisis management information into a common operational picture. The Incident Management component of the system manages operational resources together with patient tracking data that contain vital sign values and patient's status evolution. Thus, it can prioritize emergency transport decisions, based on medical and location-aware information. The solution combines positioning and information gathered and owned by various public services involved in MCIs or large-scale disasters. IMPRESS solution, were validated in field and table top exercises in cooperation with emergency services and hospitals.

How seasonal forecast could help a decision maker: an example of climate service for water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viel, Christian; Beaulant, Anne-Lise; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Céron, Jean-Pierre

2016-04-01

The FP7 project EUPORIAS was a great opportunity for the climate community to co-design with stakeholders some original and innovative climate services at seasonal time scales. In this framework, Météo-France proposed a prototype that aimed to provide to water resource managers some tailored information to better anticipate the coming season. It is based on a forecasting system, built on a refined hydrological suite, forced by a coupled seasonal forecast model. It particularly delivers probabilistic river flow prediction on river basins all over the French territory. This paper presents the work we have done with "EPTB Seine Grands Lacs" (EPTB SGL), an institutional stakeholder in charge of the management of 4 great reservoirs on the upper Seine Basin. First, we present the co-design phase, which means the translation of classical climate outputs into several indices, relevant to influence the stakeholder's decision making process (DMP). And second, we detail the evaluation of the impact of the forecast on the DMP. This evaluation is based on an experiment realised in collaboration with the stakeholder. Concretely EPTB SGL has replayed some past decisions, in three different contexts: without any forecast, with a forecast A and with a forecast B. One of forecast A and B really contained seasonal forecast, the other only contained random forecasts taken from past climate. This placebo experiment, realised in a blind test, allowed us to calculate promising skill scores of the DMP based on seasonal forecast in comparison to a classical approach based on climatology, and to EPTG SGL current practice.

Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts’ Decision Making

PubMed Central

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

2016-01-01

Background Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. Objective The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. Method After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. Results We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Conclusion Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Application Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design. PMID:27275019

Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts' Decision Making.

PubMed

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

2014-09-01

Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design.

Modelling and evaluating municipal solid waste management strategies in a mega-city: the case of Ho Chi Minh City.

PubMed

ThiKimOanh, Le; Bloemhof-Ruwaard, Jacqueline M; van Buuren, Joost Cl; van der Vorst, Jack Gaj; Rulkens, Wim H

2015-04-01

Ho Chi Minh City is a large city that will become a mega-city in the near future. The city struggles with a rapidly increasing flow of municipal solid waste and a foreseeable scarcity of land to continue landfilling, the main treatment of municipal solid waste up to now. Therefore, additional municipal solid waste treatment technologies are needed. The objective of this article is to support decision-making towards more sustainable and cost-effective municipal solid waste strategies in developing countries, in particular Vietnam. A quantitative decision support model is developed to optimise the distribution of municipal solid waste from population areas to treatment plants, the treatment technologies and their capacities for the near future given available infrastructure and cost factors. © The Author(s) 2015.

Gene Flow Patterns of the Mayfly Fallceon quilleri in San Diego County, California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickovich, J.; Bohonak, A. J.

2005-05-01

Management decisions and conservation strategies for freshwater invertebrates critically depend on an understanding of gene flow and genetic structure. We collected the mayfly Fallceon quilleri (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae) from 15 streams across three geographically distinct watersheds in San Diego County, California (San Dieguito, Santa Margarita, and Tijuana) and one site in Anza-Borrego desert. We sequenced a 667 base pair region of the mitochondrial DNA (COI) to assess genetic structure and gene flow. We found eight haplotypes across all populations. San Dieguito and Santa Margarita each contained six haplotypes. Tijuana and Anza Borrego each contained four haplotypes. The expected heterozygosity for San Dieguito, Santa Margarita, Tijuana, and Anza Borrego was 0.81, 0.83, 0.75, and 1.0, respectively. A hierarchical AMOVA analysis indicated restricted gene flow and a pairwise comparison indicated that Tijuana watershed differs significantly from San Dieguito and Anza Borrego. A haplotype cladogram revealed two internal ancestral haplotypes and six derived tip haplotypes that are unique to particular watersheds. These results suggest that Tijuana (the southernmost and the most impacted watershed) is more genetically distinct and isolated than the other watersheds sampled.

A new cellular automata model of traffic flow with negative exponential weighted look-ahead potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xiao; Zheng, Wei-Fan; Jiang, Bao-Shan; Zhang, Ji-Ye

2016-10-01

With the development of traffic systems, some issues such as traffic jams become more and more serious. Efficient traffic flow theory is needed to guide the overall controlling, organizing and management of traffic systems. On the basis of the cellular automata model and the traffic flow model with look-ahead potential, a new cellular automata traffic flow model with negative exponential weighted look-ahead potential is presented in this paper. By introducing the negative exponential weighting coefficient into the look-ahead potential and endowing the potential of vehicles closer to the driver with a greater coefficient, the modeling process is more suitable for the driver’s random decision-making process which is based on the traffic environment that the driver is facing. The fundamental diagrams for different weighting parameters are obtained by using numerical simulations which show that the negative exponential weighting coefficient has an obvious effect on high density traffic flux. The complex high density non-linear traffic behavior is also reproduced by numerical simulations. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11572264, 11172247, 11402214, and 61373009).

Further Development and Application of GEOFRAC-FLOW to a Geothermal Reservoir

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Einstein, Herbert; Vecchiarelli, Alessandra

2014-05-01

GEOFRAC is a three-dimensional, geology-based, geometric-mechanical, hierarchical, stochastic model of natural rock fracture systems. The main characteristics of GEOFRAC are its use of statistical input representing fracture patterns in the field in form of the fracture intensity P32 (fracture area per volume) and the best estimate fracture size E(A). This information can be obtained from boreholes or scanlines on the surface, on the one hand, and from window sampling of fracture traces on the other hand. In the context of this project, “Recovery Act - Decision Aids for Geothermal Systems”, GEOFRAC was further developed into GEOFRAC-FLOW as has been reportedmore » in the reports, “Decision Aids for Geothermal Systems - Fracture Pattern Modelling” and “Decision Aids for Geothermal Systems - Fracture Flow Modeling”. GEOFRAC-FLOW allows one to determine preferred, interconnected fracture paths and the flow through them.« less

An Alternative Futures Analysis of Ecosystem Service Trade-offs in Agricultural Production, Water Quality and Water Yield from the Soyang Lake Watershed in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tenhunen, J. D.; Kang, S.; Huwe, B.; Kim, B.; Koellner, T.; Ok, Y.; Nguyen, T.

2009-12-01

The international consortium project TERRECO (Complex Terrain and Ecological Heterogeneity) applies a transdisciplinary modelling approach to examine current and potential future natural resource use within the largest reservoir system of South Korea, Soyang Lake Watershed. Due to intensive fertilization, small catchments within the watershed export some of the world’s highest levels for N and P, while steep terrain and monsoon rains result in extremely high material transport. To consider alternative future management, integrated modelling approaches are required for land surface processes and production, for hydrological phenomena and transport, for economic evaluation of ecosystem services, and for management and decision-making. These in turn are supported by ground-based studies of ecosystem physiology and agricultural yield, of soil properties and erosion, of runoff and stream transport and flows, of groundwater exchange, of farm economic balances, of county and provincial statistical data bases, and of individual preferences in decision-making within a particular regulatory and economic framework. Experimental design and intial results from these project components are reported. A required partnership with agencies that currently have the mission to carry out land use planning and to advise in policy making is described. A common interest among project participants and agency planners exists, since scenarios should quantify the effects of land use decisions that are in tune with stakeholder demands. Additional evaluations go beyond stakeholder desires to consider land use contributing to sustainable ecosystem services. Progress is reported in addressing the scaling issues critical to transdisciplinary integration, which over the long-term will allow assessments of alternative futures in resource use and in ecosystem services. Information flows and bridging undertaken and planned within the TERRECO project which examines trade-offs in agricultural production versus water quality and water yield in the Soyang Lake watershed of South Korea.

Strategic Air Traffic Planning Using Eulerian Route Based Modeling and Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bombelli, Alessandro

Due to a soaring air travel growth in the last decades, air traffic management has become increasingly challenging. As a consequence, planning tools are being devised to help human decision-makers achieve a better management of air traffic. Planning tools are divided into two categories, strategic and tactical. Strategic planning generally addresses a larger planning domain and is performed days to hours in advance. Tactical planning is more localized and is performed hours to minutes in advance. An aggregate route model for strategic air traffic flow management is presented. It is an Eulerian model, describing the flow between cells of unidirectional point-to-point routes. Aggregate routes are created from flight trajectory data based on similarity measures. Spatial similarity is determined using the Frechet distance. The aggregate routes approximate actual well-traveled traffic patterns. By specifying the model resolution, an appropriate balance between model accuracy and model dimension can be achieved. For a particular planning horizon, during which weather is expected to restrict the flow, a procedure for designing airborne reroutes and augmenting the traffic flow model is developed. The dynamics of the traffic flow on the resulting network take the form of a discrete-time, linear time-invariant system. The traffic flow controls are ground holding, pre-departure rerouting and airborne rerouting. Strategic planning--determining how the controls should be used to modify the future traffic flow when local capacity violations are anticipated--is posed as an integer programming problem of minimizing a weighted sum of flight delays subject to control and capacity constraints. Several tests indicate the effectiveness of the modeling and strategic planning approach. In the final, most challenging, test, strategic planning is demonstrated for the six western-most Centers of the 22-Center national airspace. The planning time horizon is four hours long, and there is weather predicted that causes significant delays to the scheduled flights. Airborne reroute options are computed and added to the route model, and it is shown that the predicted delays can be significantly reduced. The test results also indicate the computational feasibility of the approach for a planning problem of this size.

An Estimation of Profitability of Investment Projects in The Oil and Gas Industry Using Real Options Theory / Ocena Opłacalności Projektów Inwestycyjnych W Przemyśle Naftowym Z Wykorzystaniem Teorii Opcji Realnych

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosowski, Piotr; Stopa, Jerzy

2012-11-01

Paper discusses issues relating to the valuation of investment efficiency in the oil and gas industry using a real options theory. The example of investment pricing using real options was depicted and it was confronted with the analysis executed with the use of traditional methods. Indicators commonly used to evaluate profitability of investment projects, based on a discounted cash flow method, have a few significant drawbacks, the most meaningful of which is staticity which means that any changes resulting from a decision process during the time of investment cannot be taken into consideration. In accordance with a methodology that is currently used, investment projects are analysed in a way that all the key decisions are made at the beginning and are irreversible. This approach assumes, that all the cash flows are specified and does not let the fact that during the time of investment there may appear new information, which could change its original form. What is also not analysed is the possibility of readjustment, due to staff managment's decisions, to the current market conditions, by expanding, speeding up/slowing down, abandoning or changing an outline of the undertaking. In result, traditional methods of investment projects valuation may lead to taking wrong decisions, e.g. giving up an owned exploitation licence or untimely liquidation of boreholes, which seem to be unprofitable. Due to all the above-mentioned there appears the necessity of finding some other methods which would let one make real and adequate estimations about investments in a petroleum industry especially when it comes to unconventional resources extraction. One of the methods which has been recently getting more and more approval in a world petroleum economics, is a real options pricing method. A real option is a right (but not an obligation) to make a decision connected with an investment in a specified time or time interval. According to the method a static model of pricing using DCF is no longer used; an investment project is divided into a series of steps and after each one there is a range of possible investment decisions, technical and organizational issues and all the others called `real options'. This lets one take many different varieties of modyfiying a strategy while pricing the project. This also makes it possible to react to the changing inner and outer situation and introducing new information while accomplishing the investment project. Owing to those, the decision process is a continuous operation, what is an actual vision of a real investment project management in the petroleum industry.

Voice, perceived fairness, agency trust, and acceptance of management decisions among Minnesota anglers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.

2017-01-01

Although researchers agree that public participation in natural resource decision making is critical to institutional acceptance by stakeholders and the general public, the processes to gain public perceptions of fairness, agency trust, and acceptance of management decisions are not clear. Using results from a mail survey of Minnesota resident anglers, we used structural equation modeling to examine how instrumental versus symbolic motives related to anglers’ perceptions of agency fairness, trustworthiness, and ultimately acceptance of fisheries management decisions. We applied laboratory research on relationships among procedural fairness, trust, and management acceptance, and then tested models incorporating anglers’ perceptions of voice for anglers and nonanglers in management decisions. Results suggested that trust fully mediated the relationship between procedural fairness and management acceptance. Angler perceptions of angler and nonangler voice both related to views of procedural fairness, but angler voice was more strongly related and was also significantly related to acceptance of management decisions.

Integrating Land Cover Modeling and Adaptive Management to Conserve Endangered Species and Reduce Catastrophic Fire Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

2014-01-01

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources and then decision makers can use this to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision making, where science allows us to learn to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuels monitoring with decision making focused on dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy, but habitat trajectories suggest tradeoffs. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state and by ideas about fire behavior. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility for and cover modeling programs intended to inform decision making.

Nursing Information Flow in Long-Term Care Facilities.

PubMed

Wei, Quan; Courtney, Karen L

2018-04-01

 Long-term care (LTC), residential care requiring 24-hour nursing services, plays an important role in the health care service delivery system. The purpose of this study was to identify the needed clinical information and information flow to support LTC Registered Nurses (RNs) in care collaboration and clinical decision making.  This descriptive qualitative study combines direct observations and semistructured interviews, conducted at Alberta's LTC facilities between May 2014 and August 2015. The constant comparative method (CCM) of joint coding was used for data analysis.  Nine RNs from six LTC facilities participated in the study. The RN practice environment includes two essential RN information management aspects: information resources and information spaces. Ten commonly used information resources by RNs included: (1) RN-personal notes; (2) facility-specific templates/forms; (3) nursing processes/tasks; (4) paper-based resident profile; (5) daily care plans; (6) RN-notebooks; (7) medication administration records (MARs); (8) reporting software application (RAI-MDS); (9) people (care providers); and (10) references (i.e., books). Nurses used a combination of shared information spaces, such as the Nurses Station or RN-notebook, and personal information spaces, such as personal notebooks or "sticky" notes. Four essential RN information management functions were identified: collection, classification, storage, and distribution. Six sets of information were necessary to perform RN care tasks and communication, including: (1) admission, discharge, and transfer (ADT); (2) assessment; (3) care plan; (4) intervention (with two subsets: medication and care procedure); (5) report; and (6) reference. Based on the RN information management system requirements, a graphic information flow model was constructed.  This baseline study identified key components of a current LTC nursing information management system. The information flow model may assist health information technology (HIT) developers to consolidate the design of HIT solutions for LTC, and serve as a communication tool between nurses and information technology (IT) staff to refine requirements and support further LTC HIT research. Schattauer GmbH Stuttgart.

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mogollón, Beatriz; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.; Hoegh, Andrew B.; Angermeier, Paul

2016-01-01

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m3/s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m3/s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m3/s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m3/s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods.

Keys to success for data-driven decision making: Lessons from participatory monitoring and collaborative adaptive management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent years have witnessed a call for evidence-based decisions in conservation and natural resource management, including data-driven decision-making. Adaptive management (AM) is one prevalent model for integrating scientific data into decision-making, yet AM has faced numerous challenges and limit...

Game theory model of traffic participants within amber time at signalized intersection.

PubMed

Qi, Weiwei; Wen, Huiying; Fu, Chuanyun; Song, Mo

2014-01-01

The traffic light scheme is composed of red, green, and amber lights, and it has been defined clearly for the traffic access of red and green lights; however, the definition of that for the amber light is indistinct, which leads to the appearance of uncertainty factors and serious traffic conflicts during the amber light. At present, the traffic administrations are faced with the decision of whether to forbid passing or not during the amber light in the cities of China. On one hand, it will go against the purpose of setting amber lights if forbidding passing; on the other hand, it may lead to a mess of traffic flow running if not. And meanwhile the drivers are faced with the decision of passing the intersection or stopping during the amber light as well. So the decision-making behavior of traffic administrations and drivers can be converted into a double game model. And through quantification of their earnings in different choice conditions, the optimum decision-making plan under specific conditions could be solved via the Nash equilibrium solution concept. Thus the results will provide a basis for the formulation of the traffic management strategy.

Game Theory Model of Traffic Participants within Amber Time at Signalized Intersection

PubMed Central

Qi, Weiwei; Wen, Huiying; Fu, Chuanyun; Song, Mo

2014-01-01

The traffic light scheme is composed of red, green, and amber lights, and it has been defined clearly for the traffic access of red and green lights; however, the definition of that for the amber light is indistinct, which leads to the appearance of uncertainty factors and serious traffic conflicts during the amber light. At present, the traffic administrations are faced with the decision of whether to forbid passing or not during the amber light in the cities of China. On one hand, it will go against the purpose of setting amber lights if forbidding passing; on the other hand, it may lead to a mess of traffic flow running if not. And meanwhile the drivers are faced with the decision of passing the intersection or stopping during the amber light as well. So the decision-making behavior of traffic administrations and drivers can be converted into a double game model. And through quantification of their earnings in different choice conditions, the optimum decision-making plan under specific conditions could be solved via the Nash equilibrium solution concept. Thus the results will provide a basis for the formulation of the traffic management strategy. PMID:25580108

The Need for Modernized Operational Snow Models: A Tale of Two Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winstral, A. H.; Marks, D. G.

2014-12-01

The Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho, USA contains three major reservoirs totaling nearly 1,000,000 acre-feet of storage capacity. The primary goals for water managers are water supply and flood protection. In terms of observed SWE at monitoring sites throughout the basin, water years 2012 and 2014 were similar and near normal. In WY 2014 inflows into the BRB reservoir system followed historic patterns and reservoir releases were ideally controlled for management goals. WY2012 however was warmer than average and the winter snowpack had uncharacteristically high melt susceptibility. Subsequent energy fluxes produced late winter inflows much higher than normally encountered. The uncharacteristic flow patterns and inability of traditional operational modeling tools to handle this situation challenged water managers. Through late March and early April 2012 near flood stage flows were pushed through the city of Boise in order to increase storage and prevent more catastrophic flooding. While in this case a greater catastrophe was narrowly averted, the shortcomings of the traditional modeling approaches taken by operational agencies were exposed. "Uncharacteristic" events such as these are becoming more and more frequent as the effects of climate change are realized. The need for modernized methods - ones based on the physical controlling processes rather than historic patterns - is imperative. This presentation outlines the latest developments in the application of a physically-based, high-resolution spatial snow model to aid operational water management decisions.

Administrative decision making: a stepwise method.

PubMed

Oetjen, Reid M; Oetjen, Dawn M; Rotarius, Timothy

2008-01-01

Today's health care organizations face tremendous challenges and fierce competition. These pressures impact the decisions that managers must execute on any given day, not to mention the ever-present constraints of time, personnel, competencies, and finances. The importance of making quality and informed decisions cannot be underestimated. Traditional decision making methods are inadequate for today's larger, more complex health care organizations and the rapidly changing health care environment. As a result, today's health care managers and their teams need new approaches to making decisions for their organizations. This article examines the managerial decision making process and offers a model that can be used as a decision making template to help managers successfully navigate the choppy health care seas. The administrative decision making model will enable health care managers and other key decision makers to avoid the common pitfalls of poor decision making and guide their organizations to success.

A hydrological model for interprovincial water resource planning and management: A case study in the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanington, Peter; To, Quang Toan; Van, Pham Dang Tri; Doan, Ngoc Anh Vu; Kiem, Anthony S.

2017-04-01

In this paper we present the results of the development and calibration of a fine-scaled quasi-2D hydrodynamic model (IWRM-LXQ) for the Long Xuyen Quadrangle - an important interprovincial agricultural region in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. We use the Long Xuyen Quadrangle as a case study to highlight the need for further investment in hydrodynamic modelling at scales relevant to the decisions facing water resource managers and planners in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. The IWRM-LXQ was calibrated using existing data from a low flood year (2010) and high flood year (2011), including dry season and wet season flows. The model performed well in simulating low flood and high flood events in both dry and wet seasons where good spatial and temporal data exists. However, our study shows that there are data quality issues and key data gaps that need to be addressed before the model can be further refined, validated and then used for decision making. The development of the IWRM-LXQ is timely, as significant investments in land and water resource development and infrastructure are in planning for the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. In order to define the scope of such investments and their feasibility, models such as the IWRM-LXQ are an essential tool to provide objective assessment of investment options and build stakeholder consensus around potentially contentious development decisions.

A Web-Based Decision Support System for Assessing Regional Water-Quality Conditions and Management Actions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booth, N.L.; Everman, E.J.; Kuo, I.-L.; Sprague, L.; Murphy, L.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program has completed a number of water-quality prediction models for nitrogen and phosphorus for the conterminous United States as well as for regional areas of the nation. In addition to estimating water-quality conditions at unmonitored streams, the calibrated SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) models can be used to produce estimates of yield, flow-weighted concentration, or load of constituents in water under various land-use condition, change, or resource management scenarios. A web-based decision support infrastructure has been developed to provide access to SPARROW simulation results on stream water-quality conditions and to offer sophisticated scenario testing capabilities for research and water-quality planning via a graphical user interface with familiar controls. The SPARROW decision support system (DSS) is delivered through a web browser over an Internet connection, making it widely accessible to the public in a format that allows users to easily display water-quality conditions and to describe, test, and share modeled scenarios of future conditions. SPARROW models currently supported by the DSS are based on the modified digital versions of the 1:500,000-scale River Reach File (RF1) and 1:100,000-scale National Hydrography Dataset (medium-resolution, NHDPlus) stream networks. ?? 2011 American Water Resources Association. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The Glen Canyon Dam adaptive management program: progress and immediate challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamill, John F.; Melis, Theodore S.; Boon, Philip J.; Raven, Paul J.

2012-01-01

Adaptive management emerged as an important resource management strategy for major river systems in the United States (US) in the early 1990s. The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (‘the Program’) was formally established in 1997 to fulfill a statutory requirement in the 1992 Grand Canyon Protection Act (GCPA). The GCPA aimed to improve natural resource conditions in the Colorado River corridor in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona that were affected by the Glen Canyon dam. The Program achieves this by using science and a variety of stakeholder perspectives to inform decisions about dam operations. Since the Program started the ecosystem is now much better understood and several biological and physical improvements have been achieved. These improvements include: (i) an estimated 50% increase in the adult population of endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) between 2001 and 2008, following previous decline; (ii) a 90% decrease in non-native rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), which are known to compete with and prey on native fish, as a result of removal experiments; and (iii) the widespread reappearance of sandbars in response to an experimental high-flow release of dam water in March 2008.Although substantial progress has been made, the Program faces several immediate challenges. These include: (i) defining specific, measurable objectives and desired future conditions for important natural, cultural and recreational attributes to inform science and management decisions; (ii) implementing structural and operational changes to improve collaboration among stakeholders; (iii) establishing a long-term experimental programme and management plan; and (iv) securing long-term funding for monitoring programmes to assess ecosystem and other responses to management actions. Addressing these challenges and building on recent progress will require strong and consistent leadership from the US Department of the Interior officials who guide the Program.

Development of the management for parenteral nutrition traceability in a standard hospital.

PubMed

Bernabeu Soria, Beatriz; Mateo García, Máxima; Wanden-Berghe, Carmina; Cervera Peris, Mercedes; Piñeiro Corrales, Guadalupe; Sanz-Valero, Javier

2015-11-01

to develop the traceability control and the hazard analysis in the processes of parenteral nutrients (PN). a standardized graphical notation was generated, describing in detail each of the stages in the overall process. The presence of hazards was analysed by sequencing decisions. The existence of Control Points (CP) or Critical Control Points (CCP) was estimated by Criticality Index (CI) for each hazard taking into account the probability of occurrence and the severity of the damage. The threshold for the IC was set in 6. a specific flow chart for the management and traceability of PN was obtained, defining each of the stages in CPs (validation and transcription of the prescription and administration) or CCPs (preparation, storage and infusion pump -flow and filter-). Stages regarding the delivery, the recovery and the recycle of the packing material of PNs are not considered CPs and, therefore, they were not included in the dashboard. PN must be dealt with in the frame of a standardized management system in order to improve patient safety, clinical relevance, maximize resource efficiency and minimize procedural issues. The proposed system provides a global management model whose steps are fully defined, allowing monitoring and verification of PN. It would be convenient to make use of a software application to support the monitoring of the traceability management and to store the historical records in order to evaluate the system. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

"Making Do" Decisions: How Home Healthcare Personnel Manage Their Exposure to Home Hazards.

PubMed

Wills, Celia E; Polivka, Barbara J; Darragh, Amy; Lavender, Steven; Sommerich, Carolyn; Stredney, Donald

2016-04-01

This study describes the decision-making processes home healthcare personnel (HHP) use to manage their personal health and safety when managing hazards in client homes. A professionally diverse national sample of 68 HHP participated in individual semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions, and described their decision making and strategies for hazard management in their work environments. HHP described 353 hazard management dilemmas within 394 specifically identified hazards, which were clustered within three broader categories: electrical/fire, slip/trip/lift, and environmental exposures. HHP described multiple types of "making do" decisions for hazard management solutions in which perceived and actual resource limitations constrained response options. A majority of hazard management decisions in the broader hazards categories (72.5%, 68.5%, and 63.5%, respectively) were classifiable as less than optimal. These findings stress the need for more support of HHPs, including comprehensive training, to improve HHP decision making and hazard management strategies, especially in context of resource constraints. © The Author(s) 2015.

“Making Do” Decisions: How Home Healthcare Personnel Manage Their Exposure to Home Hazards

PubMed Central

Wills, Celia E.; Polivka, Barbara J.; Darragh, Amy; Lavender, Steven; Sommerich, Carolyn; Stredney, Donald

2016-01-01

This study describes the decision-making processes home healthcare personnel (HHP) use to manage their personal health and safety when managing hazards in client homes. A professionally diverse national sample of 68 HHP participated in individual semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions, and described their decision making and strategies for hazard management in their work environments. HHP described 353 hazard management dilemmas within 394 specifically identified hazards, which were clustered within three broader categories: electrical/fire, slip/trip/lift, and environmental exposures. HHP described multiple types of “making do” decisions for hazard management solutions in which perceived and actual resource limitations constrained response options. A majority of hazard management decisions in the broader hazards categories (72.5%, 68.5%, and 63.5%, respectively) were classifiable as less than optimal. These findings stress the need for more support of HHPs, including comprehensive training, to improve HHP decision making and hazard management strategies, especially in context of resource constraints. PMID:26669605

Operations research in intensive care unit management: a literature review.

PubMed

Bai, Jie; Fügener, Andreas; Schoenfelder, Jan; Brunner, Jens O

2018-03-01

The intensive care unit (ICU) is a crucial and expensive resource largely affected by uncertainty and variability. Insufficient ICU capacity causes many negative effects not only in the ICU itself, but also in other connected departments along the patient care path. Operations research/management science (OR/MS) plays an important role in identifying ways to manage ICU capacities efficiently and in ensuring desired levels of service quality. As a consequence, numerous papers on the topic exist. The goal of this paper is to provide the first structured literature review on how OR/MS may support ICU management. We start our review by illustrating the important role the ICU plays in the hospital patient flow. Then we focus on the ICU management problem (single department management problem) and classify the literature from multiple angles, including decision horizons, problem settings, and modeling and solution techniques. Based on the classification logic, research gaps and opportunities are highlighted, e.g., combining bed capacity planning and personnel scheduling, modeling uncertainty with non-homogenous distribution functions, and exploring more efficient solution approaches.

Inside 'bed management': ethnographic insights from the vantage point of UK hospital nurses.

PubMed

Allen, Davina

2015-03-01

In the face of unprecedented financial and demographic challenges, optimising acute bed utilisation by the proactive management of patient flows is a pressing policy concern in high-income countries. Despite the growing literature on this topic, bed management has received scant sociological attention. Drawing on practice-based approaches, this article deploys ethnographic data to examine bed management from the perspective of UK hospital nurses. While the nursing contribution to bed management is recognised formally in their widespread employment in patient access and discharge liaison roles, nurses at all levels in the study site were enrolled in this organisational priority. Rather than the rational, centrally controlled processes promulgated by policymakers, bed management emerges as a predominantly distributed activity, described here as match-making. An example of micro-level rationing, for the most part, match-making was not informed by explicit criteria nor did it hinge on clearly identifiable decisions to grant or deny access. Rather it was embedded in the everyday practices and situated rationalities through which nurses accomplished the accommodations necessary to balance demand with resources. © 2014 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness.

Aquatics Systems Branch: transdisciplinary research to address water-related environmental problems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dong, Quan; Walters, Katie D.

2015-01-01

The Aquatic Systems Branch at the Fort Collins Science Center is a group of scientists dedicated to advancing interdisciplinary science and providing science support to solve water-related environmental issues. Natural resource managers have an increasing need for scientific information and stakeholders face enormous challenges of increasing and competing demands for water. Our scientists are leaders in ecological flows, riparian ecology, hydroscape ecology, ecosystem management, and contaminant biology. The Aquatic Systems Branch employs and develops state-of-the-science approaches in field investigations, laboratory experiments, remote sensing, simulation and predictive modeling, and decision support tools. We use the aquatic experimental laboratory, the greenhouse, the botanical garden and other advanced facilities to conduct unique research. Our scientists pursue research on the ground, in the rivers, and in the skies, generating and testing hypotheses and collecting quantitative information to support planning and design in natural resource management and aquatic restoration.

Perceptions of risk, risk aversion, and barriers to adoption of decision support systems and integrated pest management: an introduction.

PubMed

Gent, David H; De Wolf, Erick; Pethybridge, Sarah J

2011-06-01

Rational management of plant diseases, both economically and environmentally, involves assessing risks and the costs associated with both correct and incorrect tactical management decisions to determine when control measures are warranted. Decision support systems can help to inform users of plant disease risk and thus assist in accurately targeting events critical for management. However, in many instances adoption of these systems for use in routine disease management has been perceived as slow. The under-utilization of some decision support systems is likely due to both technical and perception constraints that have not been addressed adequately during development and implementation phases. Growers' perceptions of risk and their aversion to these perceived risks can be reasons for the "slow" uptake of decision support systems and, more broadly, integrated pest management (IPM). Decision theory provides some tools that may assist in quantifying and incorporating subjective and/or measured probabilities of disease occurrence or crop loss into decision support systems. Incorporation of subjective probabilities into IPM recommendations may be one means to reduce grower uncertainty and improve trust of these systems because management recommendations could be explicitly informed by growers' perceptions of risk and economic utility. Ultimately though, we suggest that an appropriate measure of the value and impact of decision support systems is grower education that enables more skillful and informed management decisions independent of consultation of the support tool outputs.

A new spatial multi-criteria decision support tool for site selection for implementation of managed aquifer recharge.

PubMed

Rahman, M Azizur; Rusteberg, Bernd; Gogu, R C; Lobo Ferreira, J P; Sauter, Martin

2012-05-30

This study reports the development of a new spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (SMCDA) software tool for selecting suitable sites for Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) systems. The new SMCDA software tool functions based on the combination of existing multi-criteria evaluation methods with modern decision analysis techniques. More specifically, non-compensatory screening, criteria standardization and weighting, and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) have been combined with Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA). This SMCDA tool may be implemented with a wide range of decision maker's preferences. The tool's user-friendly interface helps guide the decision maker through the sequential steps for site selection, those steps namely being constraint mapping, criteria hierarchy, criteria standardization and weighting, and criteria overlay. The tool offers some predetermined default criteria and standard methods to increase the trade-off between ease-of-use and efficiency. Integrated into ArcGIS, the tool has the advantage of using GIS tools for spatial analysis, and herein data may be processed and displayed. The tool is non-site specific, adaptive, and comprehensive, and may be applied to any type of site-selection problem. For demonstrating the robustness of the new tool, a case study was planned and executed at Algarve Region, Portugal. The efficiency of the SMCDA tool in the decision making process for selecting suitable sites for MAR was also demonstrated. Specific aspects of the tool such as built-in default criteria, explicit decision steps, and flexibility in choosing different options were key features, which benefited the study. The new SMCDA tool can be augmented by groundwater flow and transport modeling so as to achieve a more comprehensive approach to the selection process for the best locations of the MAR infiltration basins, as well as the locations of recovery wells and areas of groundwater protection. The new spatial multicriteria analysis tool has already been implemented within the GIS based Gabardine decision support system as an innovative MAR planning tool. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy risk explicit interval linear programming model for end-of-life vehicle recycling planning in the EU.

PubMed

Simic, Vladimir

2015-01-01

End-of-life vehicles (ELVs) are vehicles that have reached the end of their useful lives and are no longer registered or licensed for use. The ELV recycling problem has become very serious in the last decade and more and more efforts are made in order to reduce the impact of ELVs on the environment. This paper proposes the fuzzy risk explicit interval linear programming model for ELV recycling planning in the EU. It has advantages in reflecting uncertainties presented in terms of intervals in the ELV recycling systems and fuzziness in decision makers' preferences. The formulated model has been applied to a numerical study in which different decision maker types and several ELV types under two EU ELV Directive legislative cases were examined. This study is conducted in order to examine the influences of the decision maker type, the α-cut level, the EU ELV Directive and the ELV type on decisions about vehicle hulks procuring, storing unprocessed hulks, sorting generated material fractions, allocating sorted waste flows and allocating sorted metals. Decision maker type can influence quantity of vehicle hulks kept in storages. The EU ELV Directive and decision maker type have no influence on which vehicle hulk type is kept in the storage. Vehicle hulk type, the EU ELV Directive and decision maker type do not influence the creation of metal allocation plans, since each isolated metal has its regular destination. The valid EU ELV Directive eco-efficiency quotas can be reached even when advanced thermal treatment plants are excluded from the ELV recycling process. The introduction of the stringent eco-efficiency quotas will significantly reduce the quantities of land-filled waste fractions regardless of the type of decision makers who will manage vehicle recycling system. In order to reach these stringent quotas, significant quantities of sorted waste need to be processed in advanced thermal treatment plants. Proposed model can serve as the support for the European vehicle recycling managers in creating more successful ELV recycling plans. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management.

PubMed

Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

2017-01-17

Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

PubMed Central

Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

2017-01-01

Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members’ capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches. PMID:28094787

A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

2017-01-01

Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

How stakeholder roles, power, and negotiation impact natural resource policy: A political economy view

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caughlan, L.

2002-01-01

Natural resource management decisions are complicated by multiple property rights, management objectives, and stakeholders with varying degrees of influence over the decision making process. In order to make efficient decisions, managers must incorporate the opinions and values of the involved stakeholders as well as understand the complex institutional constraints and opportunities that influence the decision-making process. Often this type of information is not understood until after a decision has been made, which can result in wasted time and effort.The purpose of my dissertation was to show how institutional frameworks and stakeholder involvement influence the various phases of the resource management decision-making process in a public choice framework. The intent was to assist decision makers and stakeholders by developing a methodology for formally incorporating stakeholders'' objectives and influence into the resource management planning process and to predict the potential success of rent-seeking activity based on stakeholder preferences and level of influence. Concepts from decision analysis, institutional analysis, and public choice economics were used in designing this interdisciplinary framework. The framework was then applied to an actual case study concerning elk and bison management on the National Elk Refuge and Grand Teton National Park near Jackson, Wyoming. The framework allowed for the prediction of the level of support and conflict for all relevant policy decisions, and the identification of each stakeholder''s level of support or opposition for each management decision.

A proactive transfer policy for critical patient flow management.

PubMed

González, Jaime; Ferrer, Juan-Carlos; Cataldo, Alejandro; Rojas, Luis

2018-02-17

Hospital emergency departments are often overcrowded, resulting in long wait times and a public perception of poor attention. Delays in transferring patients needing further treatment increases emergency department congestion, has negative impacts on their health and may increase their mortality rates. A model built around a Markov decision process is proposed to improve the efficiency of patient flows between the emergency department and other hospital units. With each day divided into time periods, the formulation estimates bed demand for the next period as the basis for determining a proactive rather than reactive transfer decision policy. Due to the high dimensionality of the optimization problem involved, an approximate dynamic programming approach is used to derive an approximation of the optimal decision policy, which indicates that a certain number of beds should be kept free in the different units as a function of the next period demand estimate. Testing the model on two instances of different sizes demonstrates that the optimal number of patient transfers between units changes when the emergency patient arrival rate for transfer to other units changes at a single unit, but remains stable if the change is proportionally the same for all units. In a simulation using real data for a hospital in Chile, significant improvements are achieved by the model in key emergency department performance indicators such as patient wait times (reduction higher than 50%), patient capacity (21% increase) and queue abandonment (from 7% down to less than 1%).

Integrating Disciplines, Sectors, and Societies to Improve the Definition and Implementation of Environmental Flows for Dammed Amazonian Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, D. A.; Livino, A.; Arias, M. E.; Crouch, T. D.; Anderson, E.; Marques, E.; Dutka-Gianelli, J.

2017-12-01

The Amazon River watershed is the world's largest river basin and provides US$30 billion/yr in ecosystem services to local populations, national societies, and humanity at large. The Amazon is also a relatively untapped source of hydroelectricity for Latin America, and construction of >30 large hydroelectric dams and >170 small dams is currently underway. Hydropower development will have a cascade of physical, ecological, and social effects at local to global scales. While Brazil has well-defined environmental impact assessment and mitigation programs, these efforts often fail to integrate data and knowledge across disciplines, sectors, and societies throughout the dam planning process. Resulting failures of science, policy, and management have had widespread environmental, economic, and social consequences, highlighting the need for an improved theoretical and practical framework for understanding the impacts of Amazon dams and guiding improved management that respects the needs and knowledge of diverse set of stakeholders. We present a conceptual framework that links four central goals: 1) connecting research in different disciplines (interdisciplinarity); 2) incorporating new knowledge into decision making (adaptive management); 3) including perspectives and participation of non-academic participants in knowledge generation (transdisciplinarity); and 4) extending the idea of environmental flows ("how much water does a river need?") to better consider human uses and users through the concept of fluvial anthropology ("how much water does a society need?"). We use this framework to identify opportunities for improved integration strategies within the (Brazilian) hydroelectric power plant planning and implementation "lifecycle." We applied this approach to the contentious Belo Monte dam, where compliance with regulatory requirements, including monitoring for environmental flows, exemplifies the opportunity for applying adaptive management, but also highlights an urgent need for much improved communication with and participation of affected communities.

Manager`s views of public involvement

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Branch, K.M.; Heerwagen, J.; Bradbury, J.

1995-12-01

Four issues commonly form the framework for debates about the acceptability of proposed projects or technologies--the substantive decision or technological choice; the treatment of the community by the proponent organization; the way the decision-making process has been structured and managed; and the status of institutional safeguards and protection. One of the clear messages of cultural theory is that differences in perspectives are a normal and inevitable part of society, and that attempts to resolve differences by persuasion are not likely to work. These findings are useful when considering the goals and possibilities of public involvement as a decision-making tool, andmore » when designing or evaluating public involvement training programs for managers. The research reported here examines the viewpoints and concerns of managers and decision-makers about the four issues identified above, with particular emphasis on their perspectives and concerns about opening decision-making processes to the public and about managers` roles and responsibilities for structuring and managing open decision-making processes. Implications of these findings for public involvement training for managers is also discussed. The data presented in this paper were obtained from face-to-face interviews with managers and decision-makers with experience managing a variety of hazardous waste management decision-making processes. We conducted these interviews in the course of four separate research projects: needs assessments to support the design and development of a public involvement training program for managers; a study of community residents` and managers` perspectives on the chemical stockpile disposal program; an evaluation of the effectiveness of public involvement training for managers in the Department of Energy; and a study to develop indicators of the benefits and costs of public involvement.« less

Trust between managers and physicians in community hospitals: the effects of power over hospital decisions.

PubMed

Succi, M J; Lee, S Y; Alexander, J A

1998-01-01

Trust is a key element of effective work relationships between managers and physicians. Despite its importance, little is known about the factors that promote trust between these two professional groups. We examine whether manager and physician power over hospital decisions fosters manager-physician trust. We expect that with more power, managers and physicians will have greater control to enforce decisions that benefit the interests of both groups. Subsequently, they may gain confidence that their interests are supported and have more trust for each other. We test proposed hypotheses with data collected in a national study of chief executive officers and physician leaders in community hospitals in 1993. Findings indicate that power of managers and physicians over hospital decisions is related to manager-physician trust. Consistent with our expectations, physicians perceive greater trust between the two groups when they hold more power in four separate decision-making areas. Our hypotheses, however, are only partially supported in the manager sample. The relationship between power and trust holds in only one decision area: cost/quality management. Our findings have important implications for physician integration in hospitals. A direct implication is that physicians should be given the opportunity to influence hospital decisions. New initiatives, such as task force committees with open membership or open forums on hospital management, allow physicians a more substantial involvement in decisions. Such initiatives will give physicians more "voice" in hospital decision making, thus creating opportunities for physicians to express their interests and play a more active role in the pursuit of the hospital's mission and objectives.

Comparison of Lumped and Distributed Hydrologic Models Used for Planning and Water Resources Management at the Combeima River Basin, Colombia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salgado, F., II; Vélez, J.

2014-12-01

The catchment area is considered as the planning unit of natural resources where multiple factors as biotic, abiotic and human interact in a web of relationships making this unit a complex system. It is also considered by several authors as the most suitable unit for studying the water movement in nature and a tool for the understanding of natural processes. This research implements several hydrological models commonly used in water resources management and planning. It is the case of Témez, abcd, T, P, ARMA (1,1), and the lumped conceptual model TETIS. This latest model has been implemented in its distributed version for comparison purposes and it has been the basis for obtaining information, either through the reconstruction of natural flow series, filling missing data, forecasting or simulation. Hydrological models make use of lumped data of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as the following parameters for each one of the models which are related to soil properties as capillary storage capacity; the hydraulic saturated conductivity of the upper and lower layers of the soil, and residence times in the flow surface, subsurface layers and base flow. The calibration and the validation process of the models were performed making adjustments to the parameters listed above, taking into account the consistency in the efficiency indexes and the adjustment between the observed and simulated flows using the flow duration curve. The Nash index gave good results for the TETIS model and acceptable values were obtained to the other models. The calibration of the distributed model was complex and its results were similar to those obtained with the aggregated model. This comparison allows planners to use the hydrological multimodel techniques to reduce the uncertainty associated with planning processes in developing countries. Moreover, taking into account the information limitations required to implement a hydrological models, this application can be a good approach to water resources management. This project can be an important tool for decision making of different actors, such as local government, environmental agencies (CORTOLIMA), risk management office. Finally, the establishment of an improved network of hydro-meteorological stations that allow acquiring a better quality information.

Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California: A Framework for Objectively Leveraging Weather and Climate Forecasts in a Decision Support Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.

2017-12-01

Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC. The ESP hindcast was developed using Global Ensemble Forecast System version 10 precipitation reforecasts processed with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System to generate daily reforecasts of 61 flow ensemble members for a 15-day forecast horizon. Model simulation results demonstrate that the EFO alternative may improve water supply reliability for Lake Mendocino yet not increase flood risk for downstream areas. The developed operations framework can directly leverage improved skill in the second week of the forecast and is extendable into the S2S time domain given the demonstration of improved skill through a reliable reforecast of adequate historical duration and consistent with operationally available numerical weather predictions.

Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

PubMed

Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

2011-06-01

Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

Multiverse data-flow control.

PubMed

Schindler, Benjamin; Waser, Jürgen; Ribičić, Hrvoje; Fuchs, Raphael; Peikert, Ronald

2013-06-01

In this paper, we present a data-flow system which supports comparative analysis of time-dependent data and interactive simulation steering. The system creates data on-the-fly to allow for the exploration of different parameters and the investigation of multiple scenarios. Existing data-flow architectures provide no generic approach to handle modules that perform complex temporal processing such as particle tracing or statistical analysis over time. Moreover, there is no solution to create and manage module data, which is associated with alternative scenarios. Our solution is based on generic data-flow algorithms to automate this process, enabling elaborate data-flow procedures, such as simulation, temporal integration or data aggregation over many time steps in many worlds. To hide the complexity from the user, we extend the World Lines interaction techniques to control the novel data-flow architecture. The concept of multiple, special-purpose cursors is introduced to let users intuitively navigate through time and alternative scenarios. Users specify only what they want to see, the decision which data are required is handled automatically. The concepts are explained by taking the example of the simulation and analysis of material transport in levee-breach scenarios. To strengthen the general applicability, we demonstrate the investigation of vortices in an offline-simulated dam-break data set.

Modeling the relations between flow regime components, species traits, and spawning success of fishes in warmwater streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craven, S.W.; Peterson, J.T.; Freeman, Mary C.; Kwak, T.J.; Irwin, E.

2010-01-01

Modifications to stream hydrologic regimes can have a profound influence on the dynamics of their fish populations. Using hierarchical linear models, we examined the relations between flow regime and young-of-year fish density using fish sampling and discharge data from three different warmwater streams in Illinois, Alabama, and Georgia. We used an information theoretic approach to evaluate the relative support for models describing hypothesized influences of five flow regime components representing: short-term high and low flows; short-term flow stability; and long-term mean flows and flow stability on fish reproductive success during fish spawning and rearing periods. We also evaluated the influence of ten fish species traits on fish reproductive success. Species traits included spawning duration, reproductive strategy, egg incubation rate, swimming locomotion morphology, general habitat preference, and food habits. Model selection results indicated that young-of-year fish density was positively related to short-term high flows during the spawning period and negatively related to flow variability during the rearing period. However, the effect of the flow regime components varied substantially among species, but was related to species traits. The effect of short-term high flows on the reproductive success was lower for species that broadcast their eggs during spawning. Species with cruiser swimming locomotion morphologies (e.g., Micropterus) also were more vulnerable to variable flows during the rearing period. Our models provide insight into the conditions and timing of flows that influence the reproductive success of warmwater stream fishes and may guide decisions related to stream regulation and management. ?? 2010 US Government.

Effects of risk attitudes on extended attack fire management decisionmaking

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

Fire management inherently involves the assessment and management of risk, and decision making under uncertainty. Although organizational standards and guides are an important determinant of how decision problems are structured and framed, decision makers may view risk-based decisions from a perspective that is unique to their background and experience. Previous...

Electronic decision support for diagnostic imaging in a primary care setting

PubMed Central

Reed, Martin H

2011-01-01

Methods Clinical guideline adherence for diagnostic imaging (DI) and acceptance of electronic decision support in a rural community family practice clinic was assessed over 36 weeks. Physicians wrote 904 DI orders, 58% of which were addressed by the Canadian Association of Radiologists guidelines. Results Of those orders with guidelines, 76% were ordered correctly; 24% were inappropriate or unnecessary resulting in a prompt from clinical decision support. Physicians followed suggestions from decision support to improve their DI order on 25% of the initially inappropriate orders. The use of decision support was not mandatory, and there were significant variations in use rate. Initially, 40% reported decision support disruptive in their work flow, which dropped to 16% as physicians gained experience with the software. Conclusions Physicians supported the concept of clinical decision support but were reluctant to change clinical habits to incorporate decision support into routine work flow. PMID:21486884

Interdisciplinary approach for disaster risk reduction in Valtellina Valley, northern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, Carolina; Blahut, Jan; Luna, Byron Quan; Poretti, Ilaria; Camera, Corrado; de Amicis, Mattia; Sterlacchini, Simone

2010-05-01

Inside the framework of the European research network Mountain Risks, an interdisciplinary research group has been working in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (northern Italy). This area has been continuously affected by several mountain hazards such as landslides, debris flows and floods that directly affect the population, and in some cases caused several deaths and million euros of losses. An aim of the interdisciplinary work in this study area, is to integrate different scientific products of the research group, in the areas of risk assessment, management and governance, in order to generate, among others, risk reduction tools addressed to general public and stakeholders. Two types of phenomena have been particularly investigated: debris flows and floods. The scientific products range from modeling to mapping of hazard and risk, emergency planning based on real time decision support systems, surveying for the evaluation of risk perception and preparedness, among others. Outputs from medium scale hazard and risk modeling could be used for decision makers and spatial planners as well as civil protection authorities to have a general overview of the area and indentify hot spots for further detailed analysis. Subsequently, local scale analysis is necessary to define possible events and risk scenarios for emergency planning. As for the modeling of past events and new scenarios of debris flows, physical outputs were used as inputs into physical vulnerability assessment and quantitative risk analysis within dynamic runout models. On a pilot zone, the physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability and different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained. Prospective economic direct losses were estimated. For floods hazard assessment, different approaches and models are being tested, in order to produce flood maps for various return periods, and related to registered rainfalls. About Civil Protection topics, the main aim is to set up and manage contingency plans in advance; that is, to identify and prepare people in charge to take action to define the activities to be performed, to be aware of available resources and to optimize the communication system among the people involved, in order to efficiently face a prospective crisis phase. For this purpose, a real time emergency plan has been develop based GIS (Geographical Information Systems), DSS (Decision Support Systems), and ICT (Information & Communication Technology).

Solving multi-objective water management problems using evolutionary computation.

PubMed

Lewis, A; Randall, M

2017-12-15

Water as a resource is becoming increasingly more valuable given the changes in global climate. In an agricultural sense, the role of water is vital to ensuring food security. Therefore the management of it has become a subject of increasing attention and the development of effective tools to support participative decision-making in water management will be a valuable contribution. In this paper, evolutionary computation techniques and Pareto optimisation are incorporated in a model-based system for water management. An illustrative test case modelling optimal crop selection across dry, average and wet years based on data from the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area in Australia is presented. It is shown that sets of trade-off solutions that provide large net revenues, or minimise environmental flow deficits can be produced rapidly, easily and automatically. The system is capable of providing detailed information on optimal solutions to achieve desired outcomes, responding to a variety of factors including climate conditions and economics. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capturing the multiple benefits associated with nature-based solutions: lessons from natural flood management project in the Cotswolds, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Short, Chrisopher; Clarke, Lucy; Uttley, Chris; Smith, Brian

2017-04-01

Following severe flooding in 2007, and subsequent smaller flood events, a decision was taken in 2012 to explore nature-based solutions in 250km2 river catchment in the southern Cotswolds in the UK. A major tributary within the catchment has been designated as rapid response; with a primarily limestone geology limestone and a mixture of spring and surface drained sources along a number of tributaries feeding in the river, with one main population centre where the water bodies converge. The project involves landscape and land management interventions aimed at attenuating high flows to reduce flood risk through changes in land management practices in both agriculture and forestry and slowing peak flows in surface flows through increased infiltration and attenuation areas. After three years of the project it is clear that the threshold for effectiveness requires the majority of the upstream catchment area to be implementing these measures. However, the cost effectiveness of the approach seems to be substantial compared to traditional hard-engineering approaches. The level of community involvement, including local flood forums, is high and the social, and natural, capital has been enhanced through the project. Early results suggest that there have been localized improvements in water quality and biodiversity as well as a reduction in peak flow but such changes are difficult to directly associate to the project. What is clear is the role of communities, landowners and partners to implement natural flood management on a catchment wide scale. In this sense the project has adopted a co-management or adaptive management approach which brings together the knowledges of hydrologists, ecologists, farmers, woodland owners and the local community to implement locally be-spoke solutions within a broader project framework. This paper will outline the initial findings and the governance structure that has assisted in the early success of the project within a theoretical framework of co-management and suggest how this type of framework is suitable for a range of nature-based solutions across Europe. However, the challenge remains of capturing the multiple-benefits that such projects offer as these are often missed through conventional approaches such as cost-benefit analysis and some reflections on this will also be presented along with a potential way forward.

Integrating observations and models to help understanding how flooding impacts upon catchments as a basis for decision making.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, Gareth; Quinn, Paul; O'Donnell, Greg

2014-05-01

This paper explains how flood management projects might be better informed in the future by using more observations and a novel impact modelling tool in a simple transparent framework. The understanding of how local scale impacts propagate downstream to impact on the downstream hydrograph is difficult to determine using traditional rainfall runoff and hydraulic routing methods. The traditional approach to modelling essentially comprises selecting a fixed model structure and then calibrating to an observational hydrograph, which make those model predictions highly uncertain. Here, a novel approach is used in which the structure of the runoff generation is not specified a priori and incorporates expert knowledge. Rather than using externally for calibration, the observed outlet hydrographs are used directly within the model. Essentially the approach involves the disaggregation of the outlet hydrograph by making assumptions about the spatial distribution of runoff generated. The channel network is parameterised through a comparison of the timing of observed hydrographs at a number of nested locations within the catchment. The user is then encouraged to use their expert knowledge to define how runoff is generated locally and what the likely impact of any local mitigation is. Therefore the user can specify any hydrological model or flow estimation method that captures their expertise. Equally, the user is encouraged to install as many instruments as they can afford to cover the catchment network. A Decision Support Matrix (DSM) is used to encapsulate knowledge of the runoff dynamics gained from simulation in a simple visual way and hence to convey the likely impacts that arise from a given flood management scenario. This tool has been designed primarily to inform and educate landowners, catchment managers and decision makers. The DSM outlines scenarios that are likely to increase or decrease runoff rates and allows the user to contemplate the implications and uncertainty of their decisions. The tool can also be used to map the likely changes in flood peak due to land use management options. An example case study will be shown for a 35km2 catchment in Northern England which is prone to flooding. The method encourages end users to instrument and quantify their own catchment network and to make informed, evidence based decisions appropriate to their own flooding problems.

Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

2014-01-01

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

Identifying ecological "sweet spots" underlying cyanobacteria functional group dynamics from long-term observations using a statistical machine learning approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, N.; Munoz-Carpena, R.; Phlips, E. J.

2017-12-01

Diversity in the eco-physiological adaptations of cyanobacteria genera creates challenges for water managers who are tasked with developing appropriate actions for controlling not only the intensity and frequency of cyanobacteria blooms, but also reducing the potential for blooms of harmful taxa (e.g., toxin producers, N2 fixers). Compounding these challenges, the efficacy of nutrient management strategies (phosphorus-only versus nitrogen-and-phosphorus) for cyanobacteria bloom abatement is the subject of an ongoing debate, which increases uncertainty associated with bloom mitigation decision-making. In this work, we analyze a unique long-term (17-year) dataset composed of monthly observations of cyanobacteria genera abundances, zooplankton abundances, water quality, and flow from Lake George, a bloom-impacted flow-through lake of the St. Johns River (FL, USA). Using the Random Forests machine learning algorithm, an assumption-free ensemble modeling approach, the dataset was evaluated to quantify and characterize relationships between environmental conditions and seven cyanobacteria groupings: five genera (Anabaena, Cylindrospermopsis, Lyngbya, Microcystis, and Oscillatoria) and two functional groups (N2 fixers and non-fixers). Results highlight the selectivity of nitrogen in describing genera and functional group dynamics, and potential for physical effects to limit the efficacy of nutrient management as a mechanism for cyanobacteria bloom mitigation.

Conceptualizing and Communicating River Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobosn, R. B.

2007-12-01

River restoration increasingly involves collaboration with stakeholders having diverse values and varying technical understanding. In cases where river restoration proceeds through collaborative processes, scientists are required to communicate complex understanding about riverine ecosystem processes to broad audiences. Of particular importance is communication of uncertainties in predictions of ecosystem responses to restoration actions, and how those uncertainties affect monitoring and evaluation strategies. I present a relatively simple conceptual model of how riverine ecosystems operate. The model, which has been used to conceptualize and communicate various river-restoration and management processes in the Lower Missouri River, emphasizes a) the interdependencies of driving regimes (for example, flow, sediment, and water quality), b) the filtering effect of management history, c) the typical hierarchical nature of information about how ecosystems operate, and d) how scientific understanding interacts with decision making. I provide an example of how the conceptual model has been used to illustrate the effects of extensive channel re-engineering of the Lower Missouri River which is intended to mitigate the effects of channelization and flow regulation on aquatic and flood-plain ecosystems. The conceptual model illustrates the logic for prioritizing investments in monitoring and evaluation, interactions among ecosystem components, tradeoffs between ecological and social-commercial benefits, and the feedback loop necessary for successful adaptive management.

Simulation of Streamflow and Selected Water-Quality Constituents through a Model of the Onondaga Lake Basin, Onondaga County, New York - A Guide to Model Application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coon, William F.

2008-01-01

A computer model of hydrologic and water-quality processes of the Onondaga Lake basin in Onondaga County, N.Y., was developed during 2003-07 to assist water-resources managers in making basin-wide management decisions that could affect peak flows and the water quality of tributaries to Onondaga Lake. The model was developed with the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and was designed to allow simulation of proposed or hypothetical land-use changes, best-management practices (BMPs), and instream stormwater-detention basins such that their effects on flows and loads of suspended sediment, orthophosphate, total phosphorus, ammonia, organic nitrogen, and nitrate could be analyzed. Extreme weather conditions, such as intense storms and prolonged droughts, can be simulated through manipulation of the precipitation record. Model results obtained from different scenarios can then be compared and analyzed through an interactive computer program known as Generation and Analysis of Model Simulation Scenarios for Watersheds (GenScn). Background information on HSPF and GenScn is presented to familiarize the user with these two programs. Step-by-step examples are provided on (1) the creation of land-use, BMP, and stormflow-detention scenarios for simulation by the HSPF model, and (2) the analysis of simulation results through GenScn.

A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

2011-12-01

Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used with existing or proposed operating rules to explore the range of potential climate impacts on lake levels, drought trigger frequency, hydropower generation, and low-flow statistics. Initial system implementation of the Climate Change DSS was focused in the State of Colorado working with water supply agencies in the Front Range to assess local water supply vulnerability to climate change. To facilitate national implementation, the system capitalizes on National Weather Service (NWS) watershed models currently used for operational river forecasting. These models are well calibrated and available for the entire country. The system has been extended to include the ACF and the Sacramento River basins because of the importance of the water resources in these basins. Plans are now being made to expand coverage to include the Baltimore-Washington, D.C. water supply area. The DSS is operational and publicly available (www.climatechangedss.com).

The secrets to successful strategy execution.

PubMed

Neilson, Gary L; Martin, Karla L; Powers, Elizabeth

2008-06-01

When a company finds itself unable to execute strategy, all too often the first reaction is to redraw the organization chart or tinker with incentives. Far more effective would be to clarify decision rights and improve the flow of information both up the line of command and across the organization. Then, the right structures and motivators tend to fall into place. That conclusion is borne out by the authors' decades of experience as Booz & Company consultants and by the survey data that they have been collecting for almost five years from more than 125,000 employees of some 1,000 organizations in more than 50 countries. From this data they have distilled--and ranked in order of importance--the top 17 traits exhibited by the organizations that are most effective at executing strategy. The single most common attribute of such companies is that their employees are clear about which decisions and actions they are responsible for. As a result, decisions are rarely second-guessed, and accurate competitive information quickly finds its way up the hierarchy and across organizational boundaries. Managers communicate the key drivers of success, so frontline employees have the information they need to understand the impact of their day-to-day actions. Motivators--like performance appraisals that distinguish high, adequate, and low performers and rewards for fulfilling particular commitments--are also important but are most effective when applied after decision rights and information flows have been addressed. That holds true for structural moves as well. Surprisingly, the most effective structural moves turn out to be promoting people laterally--and more slowly. How can you make the most educated and cost-efficient decisions about which change initiatives to implement? The authors have developed a powerful online diagnostic and simulation tool that can help you test the effectiveness of various approaches virtually, without risking significant amounts of time and money.

A novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization.

PubMed

Bi, Ya

2015-01-01

Accurately planning the procurement volume is an effective measure for controlling the medicine inventory cost. Due to uncertain demand it is difficult to make accurate decision on procurement volume. As to the biomedicine sensitive to time and season demand, the uncertain demand fitted by the fuzzy mathematics method is obviously better than general random distribution functions. To establish a novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization. A novel optimal management and decision model under uncertain demand has been presented based on fuzzy mathematics and a new comprehensive improved particle swarm algorithm. The optimal management and decision model can effectively reduce the medicine inventory cost. The proposed improved particle swarm optimization is a simple and effective algorithm to improve the Fuzzy interference and hence effectively reduce the calculation complexity of the optimal management and decision model. Therefore the new model can be used for accurate decision on procurement volume under uncertain demand.

Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

2015-05-01

Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

Distributed traffic signal control using fuzzy logic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, Stephen

1992-01-01

We present a distributed approach to traffic signal control, where the signal timing parameters at a given intersection are adjusted as functions of the local traffic condition and of the signal timing parameters at adjacent intersections. Thus, the signal timing parameters evolve dynamically using only local information to improve traffic flow. This distributed approach provides for a fault-tolerant, highly responsive traffic management system. The signal timing at an intersection is defined by three parameters: cycle time, phase split, and offset. We use fuzzy decision rules to adjust these three parameters based only on local information. The amount of change in the timing parameters during each cycle is limited to a small fraction of the current parameters to ensure smooth transition. We show the effectiveness of this method through simulation of the traffic flow in a network of controlled intersections.

Decision space for health workforce management in decentralized settings: a case study in Uganda.

PubMed

Alonso-Garbayo, Alvaro; Raven, Joanna; Theobald, Sally; Ssengooba, Freddie; Nattimba, Milly; Martineau, Tim

2017-11-01

The aim of this paper is to improve understanding about how district health managers perceive and use their decision space for human resource management (HRM) and how this compares with national policies and regulatory frameworks governing HRM. The study builds upon work undertaken by PERFORM Research Consortium in Uganda using action-research to strengthen human resources management in the health sector. To assess the decision space that managers have in six areas of HRM (e.g. policy, planning, remuneration and incentives, performance management, education and information) the study compares the roles allocated by Uganda's policy and regulatory frameworks with the actual room for decision-making that district health managers perceive that they have. Results show that in some areas District Health Management Team (DHMT) members make decisions beyond their conferred authority while in others they do not use all the space allocated by policy. DHMT members operate close to the boundaries defined by public policy in planning, remuneration and incentives, policy and performance management. However, they make decisions beyond their conferred authority in the area of information and do not use all the space allocated by policy in the area of education. DHMTs' decision-making capacity to manage their workforce is influenced by their own perceived authority and sometimes it is constrained by decisions made at higher levels. We can conclude that decentralization, to improve workforce performance, needs to devolve power further down from district authorities onto district health managers. DHMTs need not only more power and authority to make decisions about their workforce but also more control over resources to be able to implement these decisions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

2013-01-01

We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

A pharmacy business management simulation exercise as a practical application of business management material and principles.

PubMed

Rollins, Brent L; Gunturi, Rahul; Sullivan, Donald

2014-04-17

To implement a pharmacy business management simulation exercise as a practical application of business management material and principles and assess students' perceived value. As part of a pharmacy management and administration course, students made various calculations and management decisions in the global categories of hours of operation, inventory, pricing, and personnel. The students entered the data into simulation software and a realistic community pharmacy marketplace was modeled. Course topics included accounting, economics, finance, human resources, management, marketing, and leadership. An 18-item posttest survey was administered. Students' slightly to moderately agreed the pharmacy simulation program enhanced their knowledge and understanding, particularly of inventory management, cash flow statements, balance sheets, and income statements. Overall attitudes toward the pharmacy simulation program were also slightly positive and students also slightly agreed the pharmacy simulation program enhanced their learning of pharmacy business management. Inventory management was the only area in which students felt they had at least "some" exposure to the assessed business management topics during IPPEs/internship, while all other areas of experience ranged from "not at all" to "a little." The pharmacy simulation program is an effective active-learning exercise and enhanced students' knowledge and understanding of the business management topics covered.

A Pharmacy Business Management Simulation Exercise as a Practical Application of Business Management Material and Principles

PubMed Central

Rollins, Brent L.; Gunturi, Rahul; Sullivan, Donald

2014-01-01

Objective. To implement a pharmacy business management simulation exercise as a practical application of business management material and principles and assess students’ perceived value. Design. As part of a pharmacy management and administration course, students made various calculations and management decisions in the global categories of hours of operation, inventory, pricing, and personnel. The students entered the data into simulation software and a realistic community pharmacy marketplace was modeled. Course topics included accounting, economics, finance, human resources, management, marketing, and leadership. Assessment. An 18-item posttest survey was administered. Students’ slightly to moderately agreed the pharmacy simulation program enhanced their knowledge and understanding, particularly of inventory management, cash flow statements, balance sheets, and income statements. Overall attitudes toward the pharmacy simulation program were also slightly positive and students also slightly agreed the pharmacy simulation program enhanced their learning of pharmacy business management. Inventory management was the only area in which students felt they had at least “some” exposure to the assessed business management topics during IPPEs/internship, while all other areas of experience ranged from “not at all” to “a little.” Conclusion. The pharmacy simulation program is an effective active-learning exercise and enhanced students’ knowledge and understanding of the business management topics covered. PMID:24761023

Improving IT Portfolio Management Decision Confidence Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Hypervariate Display Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Landmesser, John Andrew

2014-01-01

Information technology (IT) investment decision makers are required to process large volumes of complex data. An existing body of knowledge relevant to IT portfolio management (PfM), decision analysis, visual comprehension of large volumes of information, and IT investment decision making suggest Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and…

Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Kendall, W.L.

2009-01-01

Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives component, and ecological thresholds may be embedded in models projecting consequences of management actions. Decision thresholds are determined by the above-listed components of a structured decision process. These components may themselves vary over time, inducing variation in the decision thresholds inherited from them. These dynamic decision thresholds can then be determined using adaptive management. We provide numerical examples (that are based on patch occupancy models) of structured decision processes that include all three kinds of thresholds. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Remote Sensing for Hydrology: Surface Water Dynamics from Three Decades of Landsat Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulbure, M. G.; Broich, M.; Kingsford, R.; Lucas, R.; Keith, D.

2014-12-01

Surface water is a vital resource affected by changes in climate and anthropogenic factors. Knowledge of surface water dynamics provides critical information for flood and drought management. Here we focused on the on the entire Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) of Australia, a large semi-arid region with scarce water resources, high hydroclimatic variability and competing water demands, impacted by climate change, altered flow regimes and land use changes. The MDB is also an area where substantial investment in environmental water allocation of large volumes of environmental flow was made. We used Landsat TM and ETM+ time series to synoptically map the dynamic of surface water extent with an internally consistent algorithm (Tulbure and Broich, 2013) over decades (1986-2011). We used a subset of Landsat path/rows for image training in both wet and dry years. Results show high interannual variability in number and size of flooded areas, with flooded areas during the Millennium Drought (until 2009) being substantially smaller than during the excessive 2010-2011 La Nina flooding. Flooding frequency in 2006, a very dry year was lower than in 2010, the La Nina year when extensive floods occurred. More developed areas of the basin showed different inter-annual patterns from natural areas of the basin. At Barmah-Millewa, the largest river red gum forest in the world, we also mapped flooded forest and tracked changes in NDVI. Higher NDVI values were found in areas more frequently flooded. Knowledge of the spatial and temporal dynamics of flooding and the response of riparian vegetation communities to flooding is important for management of floodplain wetlands and vegetation communities and for investigating effectiveness of environmental flows and flow regimes in the MDB. Existing maps of inundated areas are linked with river flow to quantify the relationship between river flow and inundated area in the MDB. Historic flood inundation extent mapped via remote sensing can be used to quantify spatially explicit changes in surface water dynamics and vegetation communities as outcomes of management scenarios in response to water management decisions. This methodology is globally applicable and relevant to areas prone to flooding with competing water demands and can be used for mapping water availability in data scarce regions.

Two-Stage Fracturing Wastewater Management in Shale Gas Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Sun, Alexander Y.; Duncan, Ian J.

Here, management of shale gas wastewater treatment, disposal, and reuse has become a significant environmental challenge, driven by an ongoing boom in development of U.S. shale gas reservoirs. Systems-analysis based decision support is helpful for effective management of wastewater, and provision of cost-effective decision alternatives from a whole-system perspective. Uncertainties are inherent in many modeling parameters, affecting the generated decisions. In order to effectively deal with the recourse issue in decision making, in this work a two-stage stochastic fracturing wastewater management model, named TSWM, is developed to provide decision support for wastewater management planning in shale plays. Using the TSWMmore » model, probabilistic and nonprobabilistic uncertainties are effectively handled. The TSWM model provides flexibility in generating shale gas wastewater management strategies, in which the first-stage decision predefined by decision makers before uncertainties are unfolded is corrected in the second stage to achieve the whole-system’s optimality. Application of the TSWM model to a comprehensive synthetic example demonstrates its practical applicability and feasibility. Optimal results are generated for allowable wastewater quantities, excess wastewater, and capacity expansions of hazardous wastewater treatment plants to achieve the minimized total system cost. The obtained interval solutions encompass both optimistic and conservative decisions. Trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives are made depending on decision makers’ knowledge and judgment, as well as site-specific information. In conclusion, the proposed model is helpful in forming informed decisions for wastewater management associated with shale gas development.« less

Two-Stage Fracturing Wastewater Management in Shale Gas Development

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Xiaodong; Sun, Alexander Y.; Duncan, Ian J.; ...

2017-01-19

Here, management of shale gas wastewater treatment, disposal, and reuse has become a significant environmental challenge, driven by an ongoing boom in development of U.S. shale gas reservoirs. Systems-analysis based decision support is helpful for effective management of wastewater, and provision of cost-effective decision alternatives from a whole-system perspective. Uncertainties are inherent in many modeling parameters, affecting the generated decisions. In order to effectively deal with the recourse issue in decision making, in this work a two-stage stochastic fracturing wastewater management model, named TSWM, is developed to provide decision support for wastewater management planning in shale plays. Using the TSWMmore » model, probabilistic and nonprobabilistic uncertainties are effectively handled. The TSWM model provides flexibility in generating shale gas wastewater management strategies, in which the first-stage decision predefined by decision makers before uncertainties are unfolded is corrected in the second stage to achieve the whole-system’s optimality. Application of the TSWM model to a comprehensive synthetic example demonstrates its practical applicability and feasibility. Optimal results are generated for allowable wastewater quantities, excess wastewater, and capacity expansions of hazardous wastewater treatment plants to achieve the minimized total system cost. The obtained interval solutions encompass both optimistic and conservative decisions. Trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives are made depending on decision makers’ knowledge and judgment, as well as site-specific information. In conclusion, the proposed model is helpful in forming informed decisions for wastewater management associated with shale gas development.« less

District decision-making for health in low-income settings: a case study of the potential of public and private sector data in India and Ethiopia.

PubMed

Bhattacharyya, Sanghita; Berhanu, Della; Taddesse, Nolawi; Srivastava, Aradhana; Wickremasinghe, Deepthi; Schellenberg, Joanna; Iqbal Avan, Bilal

2016-09-01

Many low- and middle-income countries have pluralistic health systems where private for-profit and not-for-profit sectors complement the public sector: data shared across sectors can provide information for local decision-making. The third article in a series of four on district decision-making for health in low-income settings, this study shows the untapped potential of existing data through documenting the nature and type of data collected by the public and private health systems, data flow and sharing, use and inter-sectoral linkages in India and Ethiopia. In two districts in each country, semi-structured interviews were conducted with administrators and data managers to understand the type of data maintained and linkages with other sectors in terms of data sharing, flow and use. We created a database of all data elements maintained at district level, categorized by form and according to the six World Health Organization health system blocks. We used content analysis to capture the type of data available for different health system levels. Data flow in the public health sectors of both counties is sequential, formal and systematic. Although multiple sources of data exist outside the public health system, there is little formal sharing of data between sectors. Though not fully operational, Ethiopia has better developed formal structures for data sharing than India. In the private and public sectors, health data in both countries are collected in all six health system categories, with greatest focus on service delivery data and limited focus on supplies, health workforce, governance and contextual information. In the Indian private sector, there is a better balance than in the public sector of data across the six categories. In both India and Ethiopia the majority of data collected relate to maternal and child health. Both countries have huge potential for increased use of health data to guide district decision-making. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Interdisciplinary Collaborative Learning: Using Decision Analysts to Enhance Undergraduate International Management Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palocsay, Susan W.; White, Marion M.; Zimmerman, D. Kent

2004-01-01

This article describes an experiential learning activity designed to promote the development of decision-making skills in international management students at the undergraduate level. Students from an undergraduate management science course in decision analysis served as consultants on a case assigned to teams in an international management class.…

43 CFR 1610.6 - Management decision review by Congress.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... respect to a tract of 100,000 acres or more, shall be reported by the Secretary to Congress before it can... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Management decision review by Congress... Resource Management Planning § 1610.6 Management decision review by Congress. The Federal Land Policy and...

43 CFR 1610.6 - Management decision review by Congress.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... respect to a tract of 100,000 acres or more, shall be reported by the Secretary to Congress before it can... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Management decision review by Congress... Resource Management Planning § 1610.6 Management decision review by Congress. The Federal Land Policy and...

43 CFR 1610.6 - Management decision review by Congress.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... respect to a tract of 100,000 acres or more, shall be reported by the Secretary to Congress before it can... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Management decision review by Congress... Resource Management Planning § 1610.6 Management decision review by Congress. The Federal Land Policy and...

DECISION-MAKING IN THE SCHOOLS: AN OUTSIDER’S VIEW,

DTIC Science & Technology

DECISION MAKING , EDUCATION), (*EDUCATION, MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL), (*MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, EDUCATION), BUDGETS, MANAGEMENT ENGINEERING, PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT, STUDENTS, LEARNING, OPTIMIZATION

Review of experimental studies in social psychology of small groups when an optimal choice exists and application to operating room management decision-making.

PubMed

Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Braun, Michael T; Van Swol, Lyn

2013-11-01

Because operating room (OR) management decisions with optimal choices are made with ubiquitous biases, decisions are improved with decision-support systems. We reviewed experimental social-psychology studies to explore what an OR leader can do when working with stakeholders lacking interest in learning the OR management science but expressing opinions about decisions, nonetheless. We considered shared information to include the rules-of-thumb (heuristics) that make intuitive sense and often seem "close enough" (e.g., staffing is planned based on the average workload). We considered unshared information to include the relevant mathematics (e.g., staffing calculations). Multiple studies have shown that group discussions focus more on shared than unshared information. Quality decisions are more likely when all group participants share knowledge (e.g., have taken a course in OR management science). Several biases in OR management are caused by humans' limited abilities to estimate tails of probability distributions in their heads. Groups are more susceptible to analogous biases than are educated individuals. Since optimal solutions are not demonstrable without groups sharing common language, only with education of most group members can a knowledgeable individual influence the group. The appropriate model of decision-making is autocratic, with information obtained from stakeholders. Although such decisions are good quality, the leaders often are disliked and the decisions considered unjust. In conclusion, leaders will find the most success if they do not bring OR management operational decisions to groups, but instead act autocratically while obtaining necessary information in 1:1 conversations. The only known route for the leader making such decisions to be considered likable and for the decisions to be considered fair is through colleagues and subordinates learning the management science.

Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karmperis, Athanasios C., E-mail: athkarmp@mail.ntua.gr; Army Corps of Engineers, Hellenic Army General Staff, Ministry of Defence; Aravossis, Konstantinos

Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decisionmore » support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.« less

Decision analysis framing study; in-valley drainage management strategies for the western San Joaquin Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Presser, Theresa S.; Jenni, Karen E.; Nieman, Timothy; Coleman, James

2010-01-01

Constraints on drainage management in the western San Joaquin Valley and implications of proposed approaches to management were recently evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS found that a significant amount of data for relevant technical issues was available and that a structured, analytical decision support tool could help optimize combinations of specific in-valley drainage management strategies, address uncertainties, and document underlying data analysis for future use. To follow-up on USGS's technical analysis and to help define a scientific basis for decisionmaking in implementing in-valley drainage management strategies, this report describes the first step (that is, a framing study) in a Decision Analysis process. In general, a Decision Analysis process includes four steps: (1) problem framing to establish the scope of the decision problem(s) and a set of fundamental objectives to evaluate potential solutions, (2) generation of strategies to address identified decision problem(s), (3) identification of uncertainties and their relationships, and (4) construction of a decision support model. Participation in such a systematic approach can help to promote consensus and to build a record of qualified supporting data for planning and implementation. In December 2008, a Decision Analysis framing study was initiated with a series of meetings designed to obtain preliminary input from key stakeholder groups on the scope of decisions relevant to drainage management that were of interest to them, and on the fundamental objectives each group considered relevant to those decisions. Two key findings of this framing study are: (1) participating stakeholders have many drainage management objectives in common; and (2) understanding the links between drainage management and water management is necessary both for sound science-based decisionmaking and for resolving stakeholder differences about the value of proposed drainage management solutions. Citing ongoing legal processes associated with drainage management in the western San Joaquin Valley, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) withdrew from the Decision Analysis process early in the proceedings. Without the involvement of the USBR, the USGS discontinued further development of this study.

A critical review on sustainability assessment of recycled water schemes.

PubMed

Chen, Zhuo; Ngo, Huu Hao; Guo, Wenshan

2012-06-01

Recycled water provides a viable opportunity to supplement water supplies as well as alleviate environmental loads. To further expand current schemes and explore new recycled water end uses, this study reviews several environmental assessment tools, including Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Material Flow Analysis (MFA) and Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) in terms of their types, characteristics and weaknesses in evaluating the sustainability of recycled water schemes. Due to the limitations in individual models, the integrated approaches are recommended in most cases, of which the outputs could be further combined with additional economic and social assessments in multi-criteria decision making framework. The study also proposes several management strategies in improving the environmental scores. The discussion and suggestions could help decision makers in making a sound judgement as well as recognising the challenges and tasks in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multicriteria decision-aid method to evaluate the performance of stormwater infiltration systems over the time.

PubMed

Moura, P; Barraud, S; Baptista, M B; Malard, F

2011-01-01

Nowadays, stormwater infiltration systems are frequently used because of their ability to reduce flows and volumes in downstream sewers, decrease overflows in surface waters and make it possible to recharge groundwater. Moreover, they come in various forms with different uses. Despite these advantages the long term sustainability of these systems is questionable and their real performances have to be assessed taking into account various and sometimes conflicting aspects. To address this problem a decision support system is proposed. It is based on a multicriteria method built to help managers to evaluate the performance of an existing infiltration system at different stages of its lifespan and identify whether it performs correctly or not, according to environmental, socio-economic, technical and sanitary aspects. The paper presents successively: the performance indicators and the way they were built, the multicriteria method to identify if the system works properly and a case study.

Innovative Tools for Water Quality/Quantity Management: New York City's Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Porter, J.; Sheer, D. P.; Pyke, G.

2011-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies more than 1 billion gallons of water per day to over 9 million customers. Recently, DEP has initiated design of an Operations Support Tool (OST), a state-of-the-art decision support system to provide computational and predictive support for water supply operations and planning. This presentation describes the technical structure of OST, including the underlying water supply and water quality models, data sources and database management, reservoir inflow forecasts, and the functionalities required to meet the needs of a diverse group of end users. OST is a major upgrade of DEP's current water supply - water quality model, developed to evaluate alternatives for controlling turbidity in NYC's Catskill reservoirs. While the current model relies on historical hydrologic and meteorological data, OST can be driven by forecasted future conditions. It will receive a variety of near-real-time data from a number of sources. OST will support two major types of simulations: long-term, for evaluating policy or infrastructure changes over an extended period of time; and short-term "position analysis" (PA) simulations, consisting of multiple short simulations, all starting from the same initial conditions. Typically, the starting conditions for a PA run will represent those for the current day and traces of forecasted hydrology will drive the model for the duration of the simulation period. The result of these simulations will be a distribution of future system states based on system operating rules and the range of input ensemble streamflow predictions. DEP managers will analyze the output distributions and make operation decisions using risk-based metrics such as probability of refill. Currently, in the developmental stages of OST, forecasts are based on antecedent hydrologic conditions and are statistical in nature. The statistical algorithm is a relatively simple and versatile, but lacks short-term skill critical for water quality and spill management. To improve short-term skill, OST will ultimately operate with meteorologically driven hydrologic forecasts provided by the National Weather Service (NWS). OST functionalities will support a wide range of DEP uses, including short term operational projections, outage planning and emergency management, operating rule development, and water supply planning. A core use of OST will be to inform reservoir management strategies to control and mitigate turbidity events while ensuring water supply reliability. OST will also allow DEP to manage its complex reservoir system to meet multiple objectives, including ecological flows, tailwater fisheries and recreational releases, and peak flow mitigation for downstream communities.

Restoring and Managing Gulf of Mexico Fisheries: A Path Toward Creative Decision-Making

EPA Science Inventory

This chapter introduces decision analysis concepts with examples for managing fisheries. Decision analytic methods provide useful tools for structuring environmental management problems and separating technical judgments from preference judgments to better weigh the prospects fro...

Flood Early Warning in Bridge Management System: from idea to implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerin, Igor; Bekić, Damir; Michalis, Panagiotis; Šolman, Hrvoje; Cahill, Paul; Gilja, Gordon; Pakrashi, Vikram; Lapthorne, John; McKeogh, Eamon

2017-04-01

Recent advances in computational speed, cloud systems and GPRS data are some of the factors that have resulted in an increased number of operational and fully automatized Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS). Flood forecasting is becoming a well-recognised solution for flood management as an indirect measure for minimising the risk should preventive or defence measures prove ineffective or are not feasible for implementation. Public acceptance of FEWS as a standalone solution is still considered to be at low level. Further public engagement regarding engineering risks and providing timely notifications and warnings can, however, establish the true value of such a system to the society in general. Flood risks can be direct, resulting in damage to buildings, infrastructure and natural resources, or indirect, which can be related to disaster losses leading to declines in commercial output or revenue and impact on wellbeing of people, typically from disruptions to the flow of goods and services. Flood risk and structural risks are closely related, thereby impacting the maintenance and management of bridges assets over watercourses. Many studies indicate that most bridge collapses are related to hydraulic effects and consequently scour issues (i.e. the removal of riverbed around bridge foundations due to flowing water). Consequently, hydraulic, hydrologic and geotechnical expertise and knowledge can lead to introducing FEWS as a key tool for Bridge Scour Management System (BSMS), forming a part of a BMS. The implementation of this concept was initiated with the EU/FP7 funded project BRIDGE SMS. The project introduces BSMS into the overall BMS to develop a reliable decision support tool which would efficiently manage bridge failure risks in a cost-effective way. This is accomplished through the development of FEWS, alongside monitoring systems that can provide important information about environmental and structural conditions at the catchment area and bridge site respectively. The recorded rainfall from instrumentation deployed over a catchment is used as input data for hydrological modelling and now-casting, which results in flow hydrographs at the bridge containing flow rates and water level information. Soil moisture data is also used to determine the appropriate hydrological model set-up, such as dry, medium or saturated catchment conditions. The output from the hydrological model is a now-cast flow hydrograph, with a lag time of up to 24 hours. Discharge hydrograph is correlated to water levels using an existing rating curve and to the flow velocity using discharge-flow velocity curve. Water levels and flow rates are correlated to the flow velocity which provide the basis for the prediction of scour depth. FEWS in BMS introduces readiness for extreme flood events, pointing out key indicators prior to an event. Also, by considering climate change effects which is resulting in more extreme weather phenomena's, FEWS provides important information about bridge safety and assists to coordinate resources in an efficient and cost-effective way. Acknowledgement The authors wish to acknowledge the financial support of the European Commission, through the Marie-Curie Industry-Academia Partnership and Pathways Network BRIDGE SMS (Intelligent Bridge Assessment Maintenance and Management System) - FP7-People-2013-IAPP- 612517.

Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4

Treesearch

Matthew Thompson; David Calkin; Joe H. Scott; Michael Hand

2017-01-01

Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range...

Power and Flow Experience in Time-Intensive Business Simulation Game

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiili, Kristian; Lainema, Timo

2010-01-01

Power is an influential component of social interaction and there are reasons for thinking that it may have important effects both on decision-making and psychological and interpersonal processes. The aim of this paper was to study the relations between the feeling of power, decision-making and flow experience in a collaborative business…

Application of decision science to resilience management in Jamaica Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell; Fuller, Angela K.; Johnson, Fred A.; Hare, M. P.; Stedman, Richard C.; Sanderson, E.W.; Solecki, W. D.; Waldman, J.R.; Paris, A. S.

2016-01-01

This book highlights the growing interest in management interventions designed to enhance the resilience of the Jamaica Bay socio-ecological system. Effective management, whether the focus is on managing biological processes or human behavior or (most likely) both, requires decision makers to anticipate how the managed system will respond to interventions (i.e., via predictions or projections). In systems characterized by many interacting components and high uncertainty, making probabilistic predictions is often difficult and requires careful thinking not only about system dynamics, but also about how management objectives are specified and the analytic method used to select the preferred action(s). Developing a clear statement of the problem(s) and articulation of management objectives is often best achieved by including input from managers, scientists and other stakeholders affected by the decision through a process of joint problem framing (Marcot and others 2012; Keeney and others 1990). Using a deliberate, coherent and transparent framework for deciding among management alternatives to best meet these objectives then ensures a greater likelihood for successful intervention. Decision science provides the theoretical and practical basis for developing this framework and applying decision analysis methods for making complex decisions under uncertainty and risk.

Evidence-based decision making in health care settings: from theory to practice.

PubMed

Kohn, Melanie Kazman; Berta, Whitney; Langley, Ann; Davis, David

2011-01-01

The relatively recent attention that evidence-based decision making has received in health care management has been at least in part due to the profound influence of evidence-based medicine. The result has been several comparisons in the literature between the use of evidence in health care management decisions and the use of evidence in medical decision making. Direct comparison, however, may be problematic, given the differences between medicine and management as they relate to (1) the nature of evidence that is brought to bear on decision making; (2) the maturity of empirical research in each field (in particular, studies that have substantiated whether or not and how evidence-based decision making is enacted); and (3) the context within which evidence-based decisions are made. By simultaneously reviewing evidence-based medicine and management, this chapter aims to inform future theorizing and empirical research on evidence-based decision making in health care settings.

Simulation of the impact of managed aquifer recharge on the groundwater system in Hanoi, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glass, Jana; Via Rico, Daniela A.; Stefan, Catalin; Nga, Tran Thi Viet

2018-05-01

A transient numerical groundwater flow model using MODFLOW-NWT was set up and calibrated for Hanoi city, Vietnam, to understand the local groundwater flow system and to suggest solutions for sustainable water resource management. Urban development in Hanoi has caused a severe decline of groundwater levels. The present study evaluates the actual situation and investigates the suitability of managed aquifer recharge (MAR) to stop further depletion of groundwater resources. The results suggest that groundwater is being overexploited, as vast cones of depression exist in parts of the study area. Suitable locations to implement two MAR techniques—riverbank filtration and injection wells—were identified using multi-criteria decision analysis based on geographic information system (GIS). Three predictive scenarios were simulated. The relocation of pumping wells towards the Red River to induce riverbank filtration (first scenario) demonstrates that groundwater levels can be increased, especially in the depression cones. Groundwater levels can also be improved locally by the infiltration of surplus water into the upper aquifer (Holocene) via injection wells during the rainy season (second scenario), but this is not effective to raise the water table in the depression cones. Compared to the first scenario, the combination of riverbank filtration and injection wells (third scenario) shows a slightly raised overall water table. Groundwater flow modeling suggests that local overexploitation can be stopped by a smart relocation of wells from the main depression cones and the expansion of riverbank filtration. This could also avoid further land subsidence while the city's water demand is met.

A decision support framework for water management in the Upper Delaware River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bovee, Ken D.; Waddle, Terry J.; Bartholow, John; Burris, Lucy

2007-01-01

The Delaware River Basin occupies an area of 12,765 square miles, in portions of south central New York, northeast Pennsylvania, northeast Delaware, and western New Jersey (fig. 1). The river begins as two streams in the Catskill Mountains, the East and West Branches. The two tributaries flow in a southwesterly direction until they meet at Hancock, N.Y. The length of the river from the mouth of Delaware Bay to the confluence at Hancock is 331 miles. Approximately 200 miles of the river between Hancock, N.Y., and Trenton, N.J., is nontidal.

Water resources in the Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schneider, William J.

1966-01-01

Aerial photography is playing an important role in the evaluation of the water resources of the almost-inaccessible 1,400 square miles of Everglades in southern Florida. Color, infrared, and panchromatic photographs show salient features that permit evaluation of the overall water resources picture. The fresh water-salt water interface, drainage patterns, ecologic changes resulting from flood and drought, quantities of flow, and other hydrologic features are easily observed or measured from the photographs. Such data permit areal extension of very limited point observations of water resources data, and will assist in providing the necessary guidelines for decisions in water management in the Everglades.

Effective Monitoring and Control of Outsourced Software Development Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponisio, Laura; Vruggink, Peter

In our study of four outsourcing projects we discover mechanisms to support managerial decision making during software development processes. We report on Customer Office, a framework used in practice that facilitates reasoning about projects by highlighting information paths and making co-ordination issues explicit. The results suggest a key role of modularisation and standardisation to assist in value creation, by facilitating information flow and keeping the overview of the project. The practical implications of our findings are guidelines for managing outsourcing projects such as to have a modularised view of the project based on knowledge domains and to standardise co-ordination operations.

E-mail as the Appropriate Method of Communication for the Decision-Maker When Soliciting Advice for an Intellective Decision Task.

PubMed

Prahl, Andrew; Dexter, Franklin; Swol, Lyn Van; Braun, Michael T; Epstein, Richard H

2015-09-01

For many problems in operating room and anesthesia group management, there are tasks with optimal decisions, and yet experienced personnel tend to make decisions that are worse or no better than random chance. Such decisions include staff scheduling, case scheduling, moving cases among operating rooms, and choosing patient arrival times. In such settings, operating room management leadership decision-making should typically be autocratic rather than participative. Autocratic-style decision-making calls for managers to solicit and consider feedback from stakeholders in the decision outcome but to make the decision themselves using their expert knowledge and the facts received. For this to be effective, often the manager will obtain expert advice from outside the organization (e.g., health system). In this narrative review, we evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of using prompt asynchronous written communication (i.e., e-mail) as a communication channel for such interaction between a decision-maker (manager) and advisor. A detailed Appendix (Supplemental Digital Content, http://links.lww.com/AA/B72) lists each observational and experimental result. We find that the current ubiquitous role of e-mail for such communication is appropriate. Its benefits include improved time management via asynchronicity, low cognitive load (e.g., relative to Web conferencing), the ability to hide undesirable and irrelevant cues (e.g., physical appearance), the appropriateness of adding desirable cues (e.g., titles and degrees), the opportunity to provide written expression of confidence, and the ability for the advisor to demonstrate the answer for the decision-maker. Given that the manager is e-mailing an advisor whose competence the manager trusts, it is unnecessary to use a richer communication channel to develop trust. Finally, many of the limitations of e-mail can be rectified through training. We expect that decades from now, e-mail (i.e., asynchronous writing) between an expert and decision-maker will remain the dominant means of communication for intellective tasks.

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Lower Missouri River: Annual report 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeLonay, Aaron J.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Papoulias, Diana M.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Chojnacki, Kimberly A.; Pherigo, Emily K.; Haas, Justin D.; Mestl, Gerald E.

2012-01-01

The Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project is a multiyear, multiagency collaborative research framework developed to provide information to support pallid sturgeon recovery and Missouri River management decisions. The project strategy integrates field and laboratory studies of sturgeon reproductive ecology, early life history, habitat requirements, and physiology. The project scope of work is developed annually with cooperating research partners and in collaboration with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Recovery—Integrated Science Program. The research consists of several interdependent and complementary tasks that engage multiple disciplines. The research tasks in the 2010 scope of work primarily address spawning as a probable factor limiting pallid sturgeon survival and recovery, although limited pilot studies also have been initiated to examine the requirements of early life stages. The research is designed to inform management decisions affecting channel re-engineering, flow modification, and pallid sturgeon population augmentation on the Missouri River, and throughout the range of the species. Research and progress made through this project are reported to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers annually. This annual report details the research effort and progress made by the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project during 2010.

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Lower Missouri River: Annual report 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeLonay, Aaron J.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Papoulias, Diana M.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Chojnacki, Kimberly A.; Pherigo, Emily K.; Bergthold, Casey L.; Mestl, Gerald E.

2010-01-01

The Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project is a multiyear, multiagency collaborative research framework developed to provide information to support pallid sturgeon recovery and Missouri River management decisions. The general Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project strategy is to integrate field and laboratory studies of sturgeon reproductive ecology, habitat requirements, and physiology to produce a predictive understanding of sturgeon population dynamics. The project scope of work is developed annually with cooperating research partners and in collaboration with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Recovery-Integrated Science Program. The research consists of several interdependent and complementary research tasks engaging multiple disciplines that primarily address spawning as a probable limiting factor in reproduction and survival of the pallid sturgeon. The research is multifaceted and is designed to provide information needed for management decisions impacting habitat restoration, flow modification, and pallid sturgeon population augmentation on the Missouri River, and throughout the range of the species. Research activities and progress towards understanding of the species are reported to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers annually. This annual report details the research effort and progress made by Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project during 2009.

Estuary ecosystem restoration: implementing and institutionalizing adaptive management: Institutionalizing adaptive management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ebberts, Blaine D.; Zelinsky, Ben D.; Karnezis, Jason P.

We successfully implemented and institutionalized an adaptive management (AM) process for the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program, which is a large-scale restoration program focused on improving ecosystem conditions in the 234-km lower Columbia River and estuary. For our purpose, “institutionalized” means the AM process and restoration program are embedded in the work flow of the implementing agencies and affected parties. While plans outlining frameworks, processes, or approaches to AM of ecosystem restoration programs are commonplace, establishment for the long term is not. This paper presents the basic AM framework and explains how AM was implemented and institutionalized. Starting with amore » common goal, we pursued included a well-understood governance and decision-making structure, routine coordination and communication activities, data and information sharing, commitment from partners and upper agency management to the AM process, and meaningful cooperation among program managers and partners. The overall approach and steps to implement and institutionalize AM for ecosystem restoration explained here are applicable to situations where it has been less than successful or, as in our case, the restoration program is just getting started.« less

Extreme groundwater levels caused by extreme weather conditions - the highest ever measured groundwater levels in Middle Germany and their management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinstorf, F.; Kramer, S.; Koch, T.; Pfützner, B.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather conditions during the years 2009 - 2011 in combination with changes in the regional water management led to maximum groundwater levels in large areas of Germany in 2011. This resulted in extensive water logging, with problems especially in urban areas near rivers, where water logging produced huge problems for buildings and infrastructure. The acute situation still exists in many areas and requires the development of solution concepts. Taken the example of the Elbe-Saale-Region in the Federal State of Saxony-Anhalt, were a pilot research project was carried out, the analytical situation, the development of a management tool and the implementation of a groundwater management concept are shown. The central tool is a coupled water budget - groundwater flow model. In combination with sophisticated multi-scale parameter estimation, a high-resolution groundwater level simulation was carried out. A decision support process with an intensive stakeholder interaction combined with high-resolution simulations enables the development of a management concept for extreme groundwater situations in consideration of sustainable and environmentally sound solutions mainly on the base of passive measures.

Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees.

PubMed

Simon, Svenja; Guthke, Reinhard; Kamradt, Thomas; Frey, Oliver

2012-01-01

Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called "induction of decision trees" in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees' quality, we used stratified fivefold cross validation and chose the "best" tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

Integrating urban recharge uncertainty into standard groundwater modeling practice: A case study on water main break predictions for the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer, Austin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinner, K.; Teasley, R. L.

2016-12-01

Groundwater models serve as integral tools for understanding flow processes and informing stakeholders and policy makers in management decisions. Historically, these models tended towards a deterministic nature, relying on historical data to predict and inform future decisions based on model outputs. This research works towards developing a stochastic method of modeling recharge inputs from pipe main break predictions in an existing groundwater model, which subsequently generates desired outputs incorporating future uncertainty rather than deterministic data. The case study for this research is the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer near Austin, Texas. Researchers and water resource professionals have modeled the Edwards Aquifer for decades due to its high water quality, fragile ecosystem, and stakeholder interest. The original case study and model that this research is built upon was developed as a co-design problem with regional stakeholders and the model outcomes are generated specifically for communication with policy makers and managers. Recently, research in the Barton Springs segment demonstrated a significant contribution of urban, or anthropogenic, recharge to the aquifer, particularly during dry period, using deterministic data sets. Due to social and ecological importance of urban water loss to recharge, this study develops an evaluation method to help predicted pipe breaks and their related recharge contribution within the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer. To benefit groundwater management decision processes, the performance measures captured in the model results, such as springflow, head levels, storage, and others, were determined by previous work in elicitation of problem framing to determine stakeholder interests and concerns. The results of the previous deterministic model and the stochastic model are compared to determine gains to stakeholder knowledge through the additional modeling

In-network adaptation of SHVC video in software-defined networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Awobuluyi, Olatunde; Nightingale, James; Wang, Qi; Alcaraz Calero, Jose Maria; Grecos, Christos

2016-04-01

Software Defined Networks (SDN), when combined with Network Function Virtualization (NFV) represents a paradigm shift in how future networks will behave and be managed. SDN's are expected to provide the underpinning technologies for future innovations such as 5G mobile networks and the Internet of Everything. The SDN architecture offers features that facilitate an abstracted and centralized global network view in which packet forwarding or dropping decisions are based on application flows. Software Defined Networks facilitate a wide range of network management tasks, including the adaptation of real-time video streams as they traverse the network. SHVC, the scalable extension to the recent H.265 standard is a new video encoding standard that supports ultra-high definition video streams with spatial resolutions of up to 7680×4320 and frame rates of 60fps or more. The massive increase in bandwidth required to deliver these U-HD video streams dwarfs the bandwidth requirements of current high definition (HD) video. Such large bandwidth increases pose very significant challenges for network operators. In this paper we go substantially beyond the limited number of existing implementations and proposals for video streaming in SDN's all of which have primarily focused on traffic engineering solutions such as load balancing. By implementing and empirically evaluating an SDN enabled Media Adaptation Network Entity (MANE) we provide a valuable empirical insight into the benefits and limitations of SDN enabled video adaptation for real time video applications. The SDN-MANE is the video adaptation component of our Video Quality Assurance Manager (VQAM) SDN control plane application, which also includes an SDN monitoring component to acquire network metrics and a decision making engine using algorithms to determine the optimum adaptation strategy for any real time video application flow given the current network conditions. Our proposed VQAM application has been implemented and evaluated on an SDN allowing us to provide important benchmarks for video streaming over SDN and for SDN control plane latency.

Relationship Between Cybernetics Management and Organizational Trust Among Librarians of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences.

PubMed

Ghiasi, Mitra; Shahrabi, Afsaneh; Siamian, Hasan

2017-12-01

Organization must keep current skills, abilities, and in the current field of competition, and move one step ahead of other competitors; for this purpose, must be a high degree of trust inside the organization. Cybernetic management is a new approach in management of organizations that its main task according to internal issues. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between cybernetics management and organizational trust among librarians of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. This is applied and analytical survey. which its population included all librarians of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, amounting to 42 people which were selected by census and participated in this research. There has no relationship between components of Cybernetics management (participative decision making, commitment, pay equity, Correct flow of information, develop a sense of ownership, online education) with organizational trust amongst librarians of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. And there has a significant relationship between flat Structure of cybernetics management and organizational trust. For data analysis was used Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and linear regression. There is no significant relationship between Cybernetic management and organizational trust amongst librarians of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences.

Relationship Between Cybernetics Management and Organizational Trust Among Librarians of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences

PubMed Central

Ghiasi, Mitra; Shahrabi, Afsaneh; Siamian, Hasan

2017-01-01

Background and purpose: Organization must keep current skills, abilities, and in the current field of competition, and move one step ahead of other competitors; for this purpose, must be a high degree of trust inside the organization. Cybernetic management is a new approach in management of organizations that its main task according to internal issues. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between cybernetics management and organizational trust among librarians of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. Materials and methods: This is applied and analytical survey. which its population included all librarians of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, amounting to 42 people which were selected by census and participated in this research. Results: There has no relationship between components of Cybernetics management (participative decision making, commitment, pay equity, Correct flow of information, develop a sense of ownership, online education) with organizational trust amongst librarians of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. And there has a significant relationship between flat Structure of cybernetics management and organizational trust. For data analysis was used Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and linear regression. Conclusion: There is no significant relationship between Cybernetic management and organizational trust amongst librarians of Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences. PMID:29284914

An Analysis of Category Management of Service Contracts

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

management teams a way to make informed , data-driven decisions. Data-driven decisions derived from clustering not only align with Category...savings. Furthermore, this methodology provides a data-driven visualization to inform sound business decisions on potential Category Management ...Category Management initiatives. The Maptitude software will allow future research to collect data and develop visualizations to inform Category

78 FR 32442 - Record of Decision for the General Management Plan, Blue Ridge Parkway, Virginia and North Carolina

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-30

....YP0000] Record of Decision for the General Management Plan, Blue Ridge Parkway, Virginia and North... the availability of the Record of Decision (ROD) for the General Management Plan (GMP) for Blue Ridge... will provide a better balance between traditional parkway experiences and modern-day management...

Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard.

PubMed

Dolan, James G; Veazie, Peter J; Russ, Ann J

2013-04-21

For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care.Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5.9, clarification of values 6.5, reduction in decisional uncertainty 6.1, and provision of decision-related information 6.0. Qualitative findings were similarly positive. Interactive decision dashboards can be adapted for clinical use and have the potential to foster informed decision making. Additional research is warranted to more rigorously test the effectiveness and efficiency of patient decision dashboards for supporting informed decision making and other aspects of patient-centered care, including shared decision making.

Integrated Modeling System for Analysis of Watershed Water Balance: A Case Study in the Tims Branch Watershed, South Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setegn, S. G.; Mahmoudi, M.; Lawrence, A.; Duque, N.

2015-12-01

The Applied Research Center at Florida International University (ARC-FIU) is supporting the soil and groundwater remediation efforts of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS) by developing a surface water model to simulate the hydrology and the fate and transport of contaminants and sediment in the Tims Branch watershed. Hydrological models are useful tool in water and land resource development and decision-making for watershed management. Moreover, simulation of hydrological processes improves understanding of the environmental dynamics and helps to manage and protect water resources and the environment. MIKE SHE, an advanced integrated modeling system is used to simulate the hydrological processes of the Tim Branch watershed with the objective of developing an integrated modeling system to improve understanding of the physical, chemical and biological processes within the Tims Branch watershed. MIKE SHE simulates water flow in the entire land based phase of the hydrological cycle from rainfall to river flow, via various flow processes such as, overland flow, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and groundwater flow. In this study a MIKE SHE model is developed and applied to the Tim branch watershed to study the watershed response to storm events and understand the water balance of the watershed under different climatic and catchment characteristics. The preliminary result of the integrated model indicated that variation in the depth of overland flow highly depend on the amount and distribution of rainfall in the watershed. The ultimate goal of this project is to couple the MIKE SHE and MIKE 11 models to integrate the hydrological component in the land phase of hydrological cycle and stream flow process. The coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model will further be integrated with an Ecolab module to represent a range of water quality, contaminant transport, and ecological processes with respect to the stream, surface water and groundwater in the Tims Branch watershed at Savannah River Site.

Achieving a Risk-Informed Decision-Making Environment at NASA: The Emphasis of NASA's Risk Management Policy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the evolution of risk management (RM) at NASA. The aim of the RM approach at NASA is to promote an approach that is heuristic, proactive, and coherent across all of NASA. Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is a decision making process that uses a diverse set of performance measures along with other considerations within a deliberative process to inform decision making. RIDM is invoked for key decisions such as architecture and design decisions, make-buy decisions, and budget reallocation. The RIDM process and how it relates to the continuous Risk Management (CRM) process is reviewed.

Addressing BI Transactional Flows in the Real-Time Enterprise Using GoldenGate TDM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pareek, Alok

It's time to visit low latency and reliable real-time (RT) infrastructures to support next generation BI applications instead of continually debating the need and notion of real-time. The last few years have illuminated some key paradigms affecting data management. The arguments put forth to move away from traditional DBMS architectures have proven persuasive - and specialized architectural data stores are being adopted in the industry [1]. The change from traditional database pull methods towards intelligent routing/push models is underway, causing applications to be redesigned, redeployed, and re-architected. One direct result of this is that despite original warnings about replication [2] - enterprises continue to deploy multiple replicas to support both performance, and high availability of RT applications, with an added complexity around manageability of heterogeneous computing systems. The enterprise is overflowing with data streams that require instantaneous processing and integration, to deliver faster visibility and invoke conjoined actions for RT decision making, resulting in deployment of advanced BI applications as can be seen by stream processing over RT feeds from operational systems for CEP [3]. Given these various paradigms, a multitude of new challenges and requirements have emerged, thereby necessitating different approaches to management of RT applications for BI. The purpose of this paper is to offer a viewpoint on how RT affects critical operational applications, evolves the weight of non-critical applications, and pressurizes availability/data-movement requirements in the underlying infrastructure. I will discuss how the GoldenGate TDM platform is being deployed within the RTE to manage some of these challenges particularly around RT dissemination of transactional data to reduce latency in data integration flows, to enable real-time reporting/DW, and to increase availability of underlying operational systems. Real world case studies will be used to support the various discussion points. The paper is an argument to augment traditional DI flows with a real-time technology (referred to as transactional data management) to support operational BI requirements.