Model simulations of flood and debris flow timing in steep catchments after wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rengers, Francis K.; McGuire, Luke; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.; Hobley, D.E.J

2016-01-01

Debris flows are a typical hazard on steep slopes after wildfire, but unlike debris flows that mobilize from landslides, most post-wildfire debris flows are generated from water runoff. The majority of existing debris-flow modeling has focused on landslide-triggered debris flows. In this study we explore the potential for using process-based rainfall-runoff models to simulate the timing of water flow and runoff-generated debris flows in recently burned areas. Two different spatially distributed hydrologic models with differing levels of complexity were used: the full shallow water equations and the kinematic wave approximation. Model parameter values were calibrated in two different watersheds, spanning two orders of magnitude in drainage area. These watersheds were affected by the 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. Input data for the numerical models were constrained by time series of soil moisture, flow stage, and rainfall collected at field sites, as well as high-resolution lidar-derived digital elevation models. The calibrated parameters were used to model a third watershed in the burn area, and the results show a good match with observed timing of flow peaks. The calibrated roughness parameter (Manning's $n$) was generally higher when using the kinematic wave approximation relative to the shallow water equations, and decreased with increasing spatial scale. The calibrated effective watershed hydraulic conductivity was low for both models, even for storms occurring several months after the fire, suggesting that wildfire-induced changes to soil-water infiltration were retained throughout that time. Overall the two model simulations were quite similar suggesting that a kinematic wave model, which is simpler and more computationally efficient, is a suitable approach for predicting flood and debris flow timing in steep, burned watersheds.

Tradeoffs among watershed model calibration targets for parameter estimation

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic models are commonly calibrated by optimizing a single objective function target to compare simulated and observed flows, although individual targets are influenced by specific flow modes. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) emphasizes flood peaks in evaluating simulation f...

Device-scale CFD modeling of gas-liquid multiphase flow and amine absorption for CO 2 capture: Original Research Article: Device-scale CFD modeling of gas-liquid multiphase flow and amine absorption for CO 2 capture

DOE PAGES

Pan, Wenxiao; Galvin, Janine; Huang, Wei Ling; ...

2018-03-25

In this paper we aim to develop a validated device-scale CFD model that can predict quantitatively both hydrodynamics and CO 2 capture efficiency for an amine-based solvent absorber column with random Pall ring packing. A Eulerian porous-media approach and a two-fluid model were employed, in which the momentum and mass transfer equations were closed by literature-based empirical closure models. We proposed a hierarchical approach for calibrating the parameters in the closure models to make them accurate for the packed column. Specifically, a parameter for momentum transfer in the closure was first calibrated based on data from a single experiment. Withmore » this calibrated parameter, a parameter in the closure for mass transfer was next calibrated under a single operating condition. Last, the closure of the wetting area was calibrated for each gas velocity at three different liquid flow rates. For each calibration, cross validations were pursued using the experimental data under operating conditions different from those used for calibrations. This hierarchical approach can be generally applied to develop validated device-scale CFD models for different absorption columns.« less

Device-scale CFD modeling of gas-liquid multiphase flow and amine absorption for CO 2 capture: Original Research Article: Device-scale CFD modeling of gas-liquid multiphase flow and amine absorption for CO 2 capture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Wenxiao; Galvin, Janine; Huang, Wei Ling

In this paper we aim to develop a validated device-scale CFD model that can predict quantitatively both hydrodynamics and CO 2 capture efficiency for an amine-based solvent absorber column with random Pall ring packing. A Eulerian porous-media approach and a two-fluid model were employed, in which the momentum and mass transfer equations were closed by literature-based empirical closure models. We proposed a hierarchical approach for calibrating the parameters in the closure models to make them accurate for the packed column. Specifically, a parameter for momentum transfer in the closure was first calibrated based on data from a single experiment. Withmore » this calibrated parameter, a parameter in the closure for mass transfer was next calibrated under a single operating condition. Last, the closure of the wetting area was calibrated for each gas velocity at three different liquid flow rates. For each calibration, cross validations were pursued using the experimental data under operating conditions different from those used for calibrations. This hierarchical approach can be generally applied to develop validated device-scale CFD models for different absorption columns.« less

Estimation of future flow regime for a spatially varied Himalayan watershed using improved multi-site calibration method of SWAT model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhanang, S. M.; Hasan, M. A.; Booth, P.; Fallatah, O.

2016-12-01

The monsoon and snow driven regime in the Himalayan region has received increasing attention in the recent decade regarding the effects of climate change on hydrologic regimes. Modeling streamflow in such spatially varied catchment requires proper calibration and validation in hydrologic modeling. While calibration and validation are time consuming and computationally intensive, an effective regionalized approach with multi-site information is crucial for flow estimation, especially in daily scale. In this study, we adopted a multi-site approach to calibration and validation of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Karnali river catchment, which is characterized as being the most vulnerable catchment to climate change in the Himalayan region. APHRODITE's (Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) daily gridded precipitation data, one of the accurate and reliable weather date over this region were utilized in this study. The model evaluation of the entire catchment divided into four sub-catchments, utilizing discharge records from 1963 to 2010. In previous studies, multi-site calibration used only a single set of calibration parameters for all sub-catchment of a large watershed. In this study, we introduced a technique that can incorporate different sets of calibration parameters for each sub-basin, which eventually ameliorate the flow of the whole watershed. Results show that the calibrated model with new method can capture almost identical pattern of flow over the region. The predicted daily streamflow matched the observed values, with a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.73 during calibration and 0.71 during validation period. The method perfumed better than existing multi-site calibration methods. To assess the influence of continued climate change on hydrologic processes, we modified the weather inputs for the model using precipitation and temperature changes for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Climate simulation for RCP scenarios were conducted from 1981-2100, where 1981-2005 was considered as baseline and 2006-2100 was considered as the future projection. The result shows that probability of flooding will eventually increase in future years due to increased flow in both scenarios.

Evaluation of four fast-response flow measurement devices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gero, A.J.; Suppers, K.L.; Tomb, T.F.

1988-01-01

The Federal Mine Safety and Health Act of 1977 requires that sampling of dust in coal mine environments be conducted with an approved sampler operating at a flow rate of 2.0 liters of air per minute or at such other flow rate as prescribed by the Secretaries of Labor and of Health and Human Services. Standard procedures for calibration of these samplers within the Mine Safety and Health Administration utilize either a 3.0 liter capacity wet test meter or a 1.0 liter soap film calibrator. Several new flow calibrating devices have become commercially available. This paper describes an evaluation conductedmore » on four such devices: the Mast Model 823-2 bubble flowmeter, the Buck Calibrator, the Kurz Model 541S mass flowmeter and the Kurz Pocket Calibrator. The precision of a series of measurements made with each instrument was compared to the precision of a series of measurements made with the wet test meter. The comparison showed that the variability of calibration measurements obtained with the fast response flow calibrators was between 1.5 and 4.5 times larger than that obtained with the WTM; however, with all of the calibration devices evaluated, three repetitive measurements were sufficient to obtain a precision of {plus minus}0.1 liters per minute. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab.« less

Improving a complex finite-difference ground water flow model through the use of an analytic element screening model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, R.J.; Anderson, M.P.; Kelson, V.A.

1998-01-01

This paper demonstrates that analytic element models have potential as powerful screening tools that can facilitate or improve calibration of more complicated finite-difference and finite-element models. We demonstrate how a two-dimensional analytic element model was used to identify errors in a complex three-dimensional finite-difference model caused by incorrect specification of boundary conditions. An improved finite-difference model was developed using boundary conditions developed from a far-field analytic element model. Calibration of a revised finite-difference model was achieved using fewer zones of hydraulic conductivity and lake bed conductance than the original finite-difference model. Calibration statistics were also improved in that simulated base-flows were much closer to measured values. The improved calibration is due mainly to improved specification of the boundary conditions made possible by first solving the far-field problem with an analytic element model.This paper demonstrates that analytic element models have potential as powerful screening tools that can facilitate or improve calibration of more complicated finite-difference and finite-element models. We demonstrate how a two-dimensional analytic element model was used to identify errors in a complex three-dimensional finite-difference model caused by incorrect specification of boundary conditions. An improved finite-difference model was developed using boundary conditions developed from a far-field analytic element model. Calibration of a revised finite-difference model was achieved using fewer zones of hydraulic conductivity and lake bed conductance than the original finite-difference model. Calibration statistics were also improved in that simulated base-flows were much closer to measured values. The improved calibration is due mainly to improved specification of the boundary conditions made possible by first solving the far-field problem with an analytic element model.

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the Lower Frio River watershed, south Texas, 1961-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lizarraga, Joy S.; Ockerman, Darwin J.

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Fort Worth District; the City of Corpus Christi; the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority; the San Antonio River Authority; and the San Antonio Water System, configured, calibrated, and tested a watershed model for a study area consisting of about 5,490 mi2 of the Frio River watershed in south Texas. The purpose of the model is to contribute to the understanding of watershed processes and hydrologic conditions in the lower Frio River watershed. The model simulates streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater recharge by using a numerical representation of physical characteristics of the landscape, and meteorological and streamflow data. Additional time-series inputs to the model include wastewater-treatment-plant discharges, surface-water withdrawals, and estimated groundwater inflow from Leona Springs. Model simulations of streamflow, ET, and groundwater recharge were done for various periods of record depending upon available measured data for input and comparison, starting as early as 1961. Because of the large size of the study area, the lower Frio River watershed was divided into 12 subwatersheds; separate Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN models were developed for each subwatershed. Simulation of the overall study area involved running simulations in downstream order. Output from the model was summarized by subwatershed, point locations, reservoir reaches, and the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer outcrop. Four long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations and two short-term streamflow-gaging stations were used for streamflow model calibration and testing with data from 1991-2008. Calibration was based on data from 2000-08, and testing was based on data from 1991-99. Choke Canyon Reservoir stage data from 1992-2008 and monthly evaporation estimates from 1999-2008 also were used for model calibration. Additionally, 2006-08 ET data from a U.S. Geological Survey meteorological station in Medina County were used for calibration. Streamflow and ET calibration were considered good or very good. For the 2000-08 calibration period, total simulated flow volume and the flow volume of the highest 10 percent of simulated daily flows were calibrated to within about 10 percent of measured volumes at six U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations. The flow volume of the lowest 50 percent of daily flows was not simulated as accurately but represented a small percent of the total flow volume. The model-fit efficiency for the weekly mean streamflow during the calibration periods ranged from 0.60 to 0.91, and the root mean square error ranged from 16 to 271 percent of the mean flow rate. The simulated total flow volumes during the testing periods at the long-term gaging stations exceeded the measured total flow volumes by approximately 22 to 50 percent at three stations and were within 7 percent of the measured total flow volumes at one station. For the longer 1961-2008 simulation period at the long-term stations, simulated total flow volumes were within about 3 to 18 percent of measured total flow volumes. The calibrations made by using Choke Canyon reservoir volume for 1992-2008, reservoir evaporation for 1999-2008, and ET in Medina County for 2006-08, are considered very good. Model limitations include possible errors related to model conceptualization and parameter variability, lack of data to better quantify certain model inputs, and measurement errors. Uncertainty regarding the degree to which available rainfall data represent actual rainfall is potentially the most serious source of measurement error. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the Upper San Miguel subwatershed model to show the effect of changes to model parameters on the estimated mean recharge, ET, and surface runoff from that part of the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer outcrop. Simulated recharge was most sensitive to the changes in the lower-zone ET (LZ

Experimental calibration and validation of sewer/surface flow exchange equations in steady and unsteady flow conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubinato, Matteo; Martins, Ricardo; Kesserwani, Georges; Leandro, Jorge; Djordjević, Slobodan; Shucksmith, James

2017-09-01

The linkage between sewer pipe flow and floodplain flow is recognised to induce an important source of uncertainty within two-dimensional (2D) urban flood models. This uncertainty is often attributed to the use of empirical hydraulic formulae (the one-dimensional (1D) weir and orifice steady flow equations) to achieve data-connectivity at the linking interface, which require the determination of discharge coefficients. Because of the paucity of high resolution localised data for this type of flows, the current understanding and quantification of a suitable range for those discharge coefficients is somewhat lacking. To fulfil this gap, this work presents the results acquired from an instrumented physical model designed to study the interaction between a pipe network flow and a floodplain flow. The full range of sewer-to-surface and surface-to-sewer flow conditions at the exchange zone are experimentally analysed in both steady and unsteady flow regimes. Steady state measured discharges are first analysed considering the relationship between the energy heads from the sewer flow and the floodplain flow; these results show that existing weir and orifice formulae are valid for describing the flow exchange for the present physical model, and yield new calibrated discharge coefficients for each of the flow conditions. The measured exchange discharges are also integrated (as a source term) within a 2D numerical flood model (a finite volume solver to the 2D Shallow Water Equations (SWE)), which is shown to reproduce the observed coefficients. This calibrated numerical model is then used to simulate a series of unsteady flow tests reproduced within the experimental facility. Results show that the numerical model overestimated the values of mean surcharge flow rate. This suggests the occurrence of additional head losses in unsteady conditions which are not currently accounted for within flood models calibrated in steady flow conditions.

Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerberg, I. K.; Guerrero, J.-L.; Younger, P. M.; Beven, K. J.; Seibert, J.; Halldin, S.; Freer, J. E.; Xu, C.-Y.

2011-07-01

The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models will normally depend on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations with traditional performance measures, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, are challenged by problems including: (1) uncertain discharge data, (2) variable sensitivity of different performance measures to different flow magnitudes, (3) influence of unknown input/output errors and (4) inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. This paper explores a calibration method using flow-duration curves (FDCs) to address these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points (EPs) on the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach. Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested - based on equal intervals of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily four-parameter WASMOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments. An advantage with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application, e.g. using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the method appears less sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than previous use of limits of acceptability applied directly to the time series of discharge, it still requires a reasonable representation of the distribution of inputs. Additional constraints might therefore be required in catchments subject to snow and where peak-flow timing at sub-daily time scales is of high importance. The results suggest that the calibration method can be useful when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. The method could also be suitable for calibration to regional FDCs while taking uncertainties in the hydrological model and data into account.

Highly parameterized model calibration with cloud computing: an example of regional flow model calibration in northeast Alberta, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayley, Kevin; Schumacher, J.; MacMillan, G. J.; Boutin, L. C.

2014-05-01

Expanding groundwater datasets collected by automated sensors, and improved groundwater databases, have caused a rapid increase in calibration data available for groundwater modeling projects. Improved methods of subsurface characterization have increased the need for model complexity to represent geological and hydrogeological interpretations. The larger calibration datasets and the need for meaningful predictive uncertainty analysis have both increased the degree of parameterization necessary during model calibration. Due to these competing demands, modern groundwater modeling efforts require a massive degree of parallelization in order to remain computationally tractable. A methodology for the calibration of highly parameterized, computationally expensive models using the Amazon EC2 cloud computing service is presented. The calibration of a regional-scale model of groundwater flow in Alberta, Canada, is provided as an example. The model covers a 30,865-km2 domain and includes 28 hydrostratigraphic units. Aquifer properties were calibrated to more than 1,500 static hydraulic head measurements and 10 years of measurements during industrial groundwater use. Three regionally extensive aquifers were parameterized (with spatially variable hydraulic conductivity fields), as was the aerial recharge boundary condition, leading to 450 adjustable parameters in total. The PEST-based model calibration was parallelized on up to 250 computing nodes located on Amazon's EC2 servers.

A comparison of hydrologic models for ecological flows and water availability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caldwell, Peter V; Kennen, Jonathan G.; Sun, Ge; Kiang, Julie E.; Butcher, John B; Eddy, Michelle C; Hay, Lauren E.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Hain, Ernie F.; Nelson, Stacy C; McNulty, Steve G

2015-01-01

Robust hydrologic models are needed to help manage water resources for healthy aquatic ecosystems and reliable water supplies for people, but there is a lack of comprehensive model comparison studies that quantify differences in streamflow predictions among model applications developed to answer management questions. We assessed differences in daily streamflow predictions by four fine-scale models and two regional-scale monthly time step models by comparing model fit statistics and bias in ecologically relevant flow statistics (ERFSs) at five sites in the Southeastern USA. Models were calibrated to different extents, including uncalibrated (level A), calibrated to a downstream site (level B), calibrated specifically for the site (level C) and calibrated for the site with adjusted precipitation and temperature inputs (level D). All models generally captured the magnitude and variability of observed streamflows at the five study sites, and increasing level of model calibration generally improved performance. All models had at least 1 of 14 ERFSs falling outside a +/−30% range of hydrologic uncertainty at every site, and ERFSs related to low flows were frequently over-predicted. Our results do not indicate that any specific hydrologic model is superior to the others evaluated at all sites and for all measures of model performance. Instead, we provide evidence that (1) model performance is as likely to be related to calibration strategy as it is to model structure and (2) simple, regional-scale models have comparable performance to the more complex, fine-scale models at a monthly time step.

Pattern-Based Inverse Modeling for Characterization of Subsurface Flow Models with Complex Geologic Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golmohammadi, A.; Jafarpour, B.; M Khaninezhad, M. R.

2017-12-01

Calibration of heterogeneous subsurface flow models leads to ill-posed nonlinear inverse problems, where too many unknown parameters are estimated from limited response measurements. When the underlying parameters form complex (non-Gaussian) structured spatial connectivity patterns, classical variogram-based geostatistical techniques cannot describe the underlying connectivity patterns. Modern pattern-based geostatistical methods that incorporate higher-order spatial statistics are more suitable for describing such complex spatial patterns. Moreover, when the underlying unknown parameters are discrete (geologic facies distribution), conventional model calibration techniques that are designed for continuous parameters cannot be applied directly. In this paper, we introduce a novel pattern-based model calibration method to reconstruct discrete and spatially complex facies distributions from dynamic flow response data. To reproduce complex connectivity patterns during model calibration, we impose a feasibility constraint to ensure that the solution follows the expected higher-order spatial statistics. For model calibration, we adopt a regularized least-squares formulation, involving data mismatch, pattern connectivity, and feasibility constraint terms. Using an alternating directions optimization algorithm, the regularized objective function is divided into a continuous model calibration problem, followed by mapping the solution onto the feasible set. The feasibility constraint to honor the expected spatial statistics is implemented using a supervised machine learning algorithm. The two steps of the model calibration formulation are repeated until the convergence criterion is met. Several numerical examples are used to evaluate the performance of the developed method.

Using passive capillary lysimeter water flux measurements to improve flow predictions in variably saturated soils.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Passive capillary lysimeters (PCLs) are uniquely suited for measuring water fluxes in variably-saturated soils. The objective of this work was to compare PCL flux measurements with simulated fluxes obtained with a calibrated unsaturated flow model. The Richards equation-based model was calibrated us...

Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Poole, Sandra; Wolfe, William J.; Seibert, Jan; Breuer, Lutz; Kraft, Philipp

2016-01-01

Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

Computer simulation of storm runoff for three watersheds in Albuquerque, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knutilla, R.L.; Veenhuis, J.E.

1994-01-01

Rainfall-runoff data from three watersheds were selected for calibration and verification of the U.S. Geological Survey's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model. The watersheds chosen are residentially developed. The conceptually based model uses an optimization process that adjusts selected parameters to achieve the best fit between measured and simulated runoff volumes and peak discharges. Three of these optimization parameters represent soil-moisture conditions, three represent infiltration, and one accounts for effective impervious area. Each watershed modeled was divided into overland-flow segments and channel segments. The overland-flow segments were further subdivided to reflect pervious and impervious areas. Each overland-flow and channel segment was assigned representative values of area, slope, percentage of imperviousness, and roughness coefficients. Rainfall-runoff data for each watershed were separated into two sets for use in calibration and verification. For model calibration, seven input parameters were optimized to attain a best fit of the data. For model verification, parameter values were set using values from model calibration. The standard error of estimate for calibration of runoff volumes ranged from 19 to 34 percent, and for peak discharge calibration ranged from 27 to 44 percent. The standard error of estimate for verification of runoff volumes ranged from 26 to 31 percent, and for peak discharge verification ranged from 31 to 43 percent.

Small Scale Mass Flow Plug Calibration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sasson, Jonathan

2015-01-01

A simple control volume model has been developed to calculate the discharge coefficient through a mass flow plug (MFP) and validated with a calibration experiment. The maximum error of the model in the operating region of the MFP is 0.54%. The model uses the MFP geometry and operating pressure and temperature to couple continuity, momentum, energy, an equation of state, and wall shear. Effects of boundary layer growth and the reduction in cross-sectional flow area are calculated using an in- integral method. A CFD calibration is shown to be of lower accuracy with a maximum error of 1.35%, and slower by a factor of 100. Effects of total pressure distortion are taken into account in the experiment. Distortion creates a loss in flow rate and can be characterized by two different distortion descriptors.

Hydrochemical tracers in the middle Rio Grande Basin, USA: 2. Calibration of a groundwater-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, W.E.; Plummer, Niel; McAda, D.P.; Bexfield, L.M.; Anderholm, S.K.

2004-01-01

The calibration of a groundwater model with the aid of hydrochemical data has demonstrated that low recharge rates in the Middle Rio Grande Basin may be responsible for a groundwater trough in the center of the basin and for a substantial amount of Rio Grande water in the regional flow system. Earlier models of the basin had difficulty reproducing these features without any hydrochemical data to constrain the rates and distribution of recharge. The objective of this study was to use the large quantity of available hydrochemical data to help calibrate the model parameters, including the recharge rates. The model was constructed using the US Geological Survey's software MODFLOW, MODPATH, and UCODE, and calibrated using 14C activities and the positions of certain flow zones defined by the hydrochemical data. Parameter estimation was performed using a combination of nonlinear regression techniques and a manual search for the minimum difference between field and simulated observations. The calibrated recharge values were substantially smaller than those used in previous models. Results from a 30,000-year transient simulation suggest that recharge was at a maximum about 20,000 years ago and at a minimum about 10,000 years ago. ?? Springer-Verlag 2004.

Natural streamflow simulation for two largest river basins in Poland: a baseline for identification of flow alterations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piniewski, Mikołaj

2016-05-01

The objective of this study was to apply a previously developed large-scale and high-resolution SWAT model of the Vistula and the Odra basins, calibrated with the focus of natural flow simulation, in order to assess the impact of three different dam reservoirs on streamflow using the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA). A tailored spatial calibration approach was designed, in which calibration was focused on a large set of relatively small non-nested sub-catchments with semi-natural flow regime. These were classified into calibration clusters based on the flow statistics similarity. After performing calibration and validation that gave overall positive results, the calibrated parameter values were transferred to the remaining part of the basins using an approach based on hydrological similarity of donor and target catchments. The calibrated model was applied in three case studies with the purpose of assessing the effect of dam reservoirs (Włocławek, Siemianówka and Czorsztyn Reservoirs) on streamflow alteration. Both the assessment based on gauged streamflow (Before-After design) and the one based on simulated natural streamflow showed large alterations in selected flow statistics related to magnitude, duration, high and low flow pulses and rate of change. Some benefits of using a large-scale and high-resolution hydrological model for the assessment of streamflow alteration include: (1) providing an alternative or complementary approach to the classical Before-After designs, (2) isolating the climate variability effect from the dam (or any other source of alteration) effect, (3) providing a practical tool that can be applied at a range of spatial scales over large area such as a country, in a uniform way. Thus, presented approach can be applied for designing more natural flow regimes, which is crucial for river and floodplain ecosystem restoration in the context of the European Union's policy on environmental flows.

Dry calibration of electromagnetic flowmeters based on numerical models combining multiple physical phenomena (multiphysics)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, X.; Hu, L.; Lee, K. M.; Zou, J.; Ruan, X. D.; Yang, H. Y.

2010-10-01

This paper presents a method for dry calibration of an electromagnetic flowmeter (EMF). This method, which determines the voltage induced in the EMF as conductive liquid flows through a magnetic field, numerically solves a coupled set of multiphysical equations with measured boundary conditions for the magnetic, electric, and flow fields in the measuring pipe of the flowmeter. Specifically, this paper details the formulation of dry calibration and an efficient algorithm (that adaptively minimizes the number of measurements and requires only the normal component of the magnetic flux density as boundary conditions on the pipe surface to reconstruct the magnetic field involved) for computing the sensitivity of EMF. Along with an in-depth discussion on factors that could significantly affect the final precision of a dry calibrated EMF, the effects of flow disturbance on measuring errors have been experimentally studied by installing a baffle at the inflow port of the EMF. Results of the dry calibration on an actual EMF were compared against flow-rig calibration; excellent agreements (within 0.3%) between dry calibration and flow-rig tests verify the multiphysical computation of the fields and the robustness of the method. As requiring no actual flow, the dry calibration is particularly useful for calibrating large-diameter EMFs where conventional flow-rig methods are often costly and difficult to implement.

The site-scale saturated zone flow model for Yucca Mountain: Calibration of different conceptual models and their impact on flow paths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zyvoloski, G.; Kwicklis, E.; Eddebbarh, A.-A.; Arnold, B.; Faunt, C.; Robinson, B.A.

2003-01-01

This paper presents several different conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient (LHG) region north of Yucca Mountain and describes the impact of those models on groundwater flow near the potential high-level repository site. The results are based on a numerical model of site-scale saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain. This model is used for performance assessment predictions of radionuclide transport and to guide future data collection and modeling activities. The numerical model is calibrated by matching available water level measurements using parameter estimation techniques, along with more informal comparisons of the model to hydrologic and geochemical information. The model software (hydrologic simulation code FEHM and parameter estimation software PEST) and model setup allows for efficient calibration of multiple conceptual models. Until now, the Large Hydraulic Gradient has been simulated using a low-permeability, east-west oriented feature, even though direct evidence for this feature is lacking. In addition to this model, we investigate and calibrate three additional conceptual models of the Large Hydraulic Gradient, all of which are based on a presumed zone of hydrothermal chemical alteration north of Yucca Mountain. After examining the heads and permeabilities obtained from the calibrated models, we present particle pathways from the potential repository that record differences in the predicted groundwater flow regime. The results show that Large Hydraulic Gradient can be represented with the alternate conceptual models that include the hydrothermally altered zone. The predicted pathways are mildly sensitive to the choice of the conceptual model and more sensitive to the quality of calibration in the vicinity on the repository. These differences are most likely due to different degrees of fit of model to data, and do not represent important differences in hydrologic conditions for the different conceptual models. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibration of the computer model describing flows in the water supply system; example of the application of a genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orłowska-Szostak, Maria; Orłowski, Ryszard

2017-11-01

The paper discusses some relevant aspects of the calibration of a computer model describing flows in the water supply system. The authors described an exemplary water supply system and used it as a practical illustration of calibration. A range of measures was discussed and applied, which improve the convergence and effective use of calculations in the calibration process and also the effect of such calibration which is the validity of the results obtained. Drawing up results of performed measurements, i.e. estimating pipe roughnesses, the authors performed using the genetic algorithm implementation of which is a software developed by Resan Labs company from Brazil.

Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerberg, I. K.; Guerrero, J.-L.; Younger, P. M.; Beven, K. J.; Seibert, J.; Halldin, S.; Freer, J. E.; Xu, C.-Y.

2010-12-01

The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models depends on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations with traditional performance measures such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency are challenged by problems including: (1) uncertain discharge data, (2) variable importance of the performance with flow magnitudes, (3) influence of unknown input/output errors and (4) inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. A new calibration method using flow-duration curves (FDCs) was developed which addresses these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points (EPs) of the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach. Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested - based on equal intervals of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily four-parameter WASMOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments without resulting in overpredicted simulated uncertainty. An advantage with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application e.g. using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the new method is less sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than the normal use of limits of acceptability applied directly to the time series of discharge, it still requires a reasonable representation of the distribution of inputs. Additional constraints might therefore be required in catchments subject to snow. The results suggest that the new calibration method can be useful when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. The new method could also be suitable for calibration to regional FDCs while taking uncertainties in the hydrological model and data into account.

Integrated surface-subsurface model to investigate the role of groundwater in headwater catchment runoff generation: A minimalist approach to parameterisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ala-aho, Pertti; Soulsby, Chris; Wang, Hailong; Tetzlaff, Doerthe

2017-04-01

Understanding the role of groundwater for runoff generation in headwater catchments is a challenge in hydrology, particularly so in data-scarce areas. Fully-integrated surface-subsurface modelling has shown potential in increasing process understanding for runoff generation, but high data requirements and difficulties in model calibration are typically assumed to preclude their use in catchment-scale studies. We used a fully integrated surface-subsurface hydrological simulator to enhance groundwater-related process understanding in a headwater catchment with a rich background in empirical data. To set up the model we used minimal data that could be reasonably expected to exist for any experimental catchment. A novel aspect of our approach was in using simplified model parameterisation and including parameters from all model domains (surface, subsurface, evapotranspiration) in automated model calibration. Calibration aimed not only to improve model fit, but also to test the information content of the observations (streamflow, remotely sensed evapotranspiration, median groundwater level) used in calibration objective functions. We identified sensitive parameters in all model domains (subsurface, surface, evapotranspiration), demonstrating that model calibration should be inclusive of parameters from these different model domains. Incorporating groundwater data in calibration objectives improved the model fit for groundwater levels, but simulations did not reproduce well the remotely sensed evapotranspiration time series even after calibration. Spatially explicit model output improved our understanding of how groundwater functions in maintaining streamflow generation primarily via saturation excess overland flow. Steady groundwater inputs created saturated conditions in the valley bottom riparian peatlands, leading to overland flow even during dry periods. Groundwater on the hillslopes was more dynamic in its response to rainfall, acting to expand the saturated area extent and thereby promoting saturation excess overland flow during rainstorms. Our work shows the potential of using integrated surface-subsurface modelling alongside with rigorous model calibration to better understand and visualise the role of groundwater in runoff generation even with limited datasets.

Parameter Identification and Uncertainty Analysis for Visual MODFLOW based Groundwater Flow Model in a Small River Basin, Eastern India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jena, S.

2015-12-01

The overexploitation of groundwater resulted in abandoning many shallow tube wells in the river Basin in Eastern India. For the sustainability of groundwater resources, basin-scale modelling of groundwater flow is essential for the efficient planning and management of the water resources. The main intent of this study is to develope a 3-D groundwater flow model of the study basin using the Visual MODFLOW package and successfully calibrate and validate it using 17 years of observed data. The sensitivity analysis was carried out to quantify the susceptibility of aquifer system to the river bank seepage, recharge from rainfall and agriculture practices, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, and specific yield. To quantify the impact of parameter uncertainties, Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques were implemented. Results from the two techniques were compared and the advantages and disadvantages were analysed. Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) were adopted as two criteria during calibration and validation of the developed model. NSE and R2 values of groundwater flow model for calibration and validation periods were in acceptable range. Also, the MCMC technique was able to provide more reasonable results than SUFI-2. The calibrated and validated model will be useful to identify the aquifer properties, analyse the groundwater flow dynamics and the change in groundwater levels in future forecasts.

Stepwise calibration procedure for regional coupled hydrological-hydrogeological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labarthe, Baptiste; Abasq, Lena; de Fouquet, Chantal; Flipo, Nicolas

2014-05-01

Stream-aquifer interaction is a complex process depending on regional and local processes. Indeed, the groundwater component of hydrosystem and large scale heterogeneities control the regional flows towards the alluvial plains and the rivers. In second instance, the local distribution of the stream bed permeabilities controls the dynamics of stream-aquifer water fluxes within the alluvial plain, and therefore the near-river piezometric head distribution. In order to better understand the water circulation and pollutant transport in watersheds, the integration of these multi-dimensional processes in modelling platform has to be performed. Thus, the nested interfaces concept in continental hydrosystem modelling (where regional fluxes, simulated by large scale models, are imposed at local stream-aquifer interfaces) has been presented in Flipo et al (2014). This concept has been implemented in EauDyssée modelling platform for a large alluvial plain model (900km2) part of a 11000km2 multi-layer aquifer system, located in the Seine basin (France). The hydrosystem modelling platform is composed of four spatially distributed modules (Surface, Sub-surface, River and Groundwater), corresponding to four components of the terrestrial water cycle. Considering the large number of parameters to be inferred simultaneously, the calibration process of coupled models is highly computationally demanding and therefore hardly applicable to a real case study of 10000km2. In order to improve the efficiency of the calibration process, a stepwise calibration procedure is proposed. The stepwise methodology involves determining optimal parameters of all components of the coupled model, to provide a near optimum prior information for the global calibration. It starts with the surface component parameters calibration. The surface parameters are optimised based on the comparison between simulated and observed discharges (or filtered discharges) at various locations. Once the surface parameters have been determined, the groundwater component is calibrated. The calibration procedure is performed under steady state hypothesis (to minimize the procedure time length) using recharge rates given by the surface component calibration and imposed fluxes boundary conditions given by the regional model. The calibration is performed using pilot point where the prior variogram is calculated from observed transmissivities values. This procedure uses PEST (http//:www.pesthomepage.org/Home.php) as the inverse modelling tool and EauDyssée as the direct model. During the stepwise calibration process, each modules, even if they are actually dependant from each other, are run and calibrated independently, therefore contributions between each module have to be determined. For the surface module, groundwater and runoff contributions have been determined by hydrograph separation. Among the automated base-flow separation methods, the one-parameter Chapman filter (Chapman et al 1999) has been chosen. This filter is a decomposition of the actual base-flow between the previous base-flow and the discharge gradient weighted by functions of the recession coefficient. For the groundwater module, the recharge has been determined from surface and sub-surface module. References : Flipo, N., A. Mourhi, B. Labarthe, and S. Biancamaria (2014). Continental hydrosystem modelling : the concept of nested stream-aquifer interfaces. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 11, 451-500. Chapman,TG. (1999). A comparison of algorithms for stream flow recession and base-flow separation. hydrological Processes 13, 701-714.

The role of integrated high resolution stratigraphic and geophysic surveys for groundwater modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margiotta, S.; Mazzone, F.; Negri, S.; Calora, M.

2008-10-01

This work sets out a methodology of integrated geological, hydrogeological and geophysical surveys for the characterization of contaminated sites. The flow model of the shallow aquifer in the Brindisi area (recognized to be at significant environmental risk by the Italian government) and the impact of an antrophic structure on the groundwater flow have been evaluated. The stratigraphic and hydrogeological targets used for the calibration phase of the flow model provide a means of assessing calibration quality. The good calibration of the model point out the key role of a detailed knowledge of the physical-stratigraphycal attributes of the area to be studied and field data collection. Geoelectrical tomography focus the attention on an area resulted of particular interest by the flow model obtained. This method permit to reconstruct in detail the lateral and vertical lithological variations in the geological formations improving the spatial resolution of the data and consequently the scale of observation. Besides, anomaly resistivity values have been correlated with pollution. Chemical analysis have confirmed this correlation.

Simulation of flow and water quality of the Arroyo Colorado, Texas, 1989-99

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raines, Timothy H.; Miranda, Roger M.

2002-01-01

A model parameter set for use with the Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN watershed model was developed to simulate flow and water quality for selected properties and constituents for the Arroyo Colorado from the city of Mission to the Laguna Madre, Texas. The model simulates flow, selected water-quality properties, and constituent concentrations. The model can be used to estimate a total maximum daily load for selected properties and constituents in the Arroyo Colorado. The model was calibrated and tested for flow with data measured during 1989–99 at three streamflow-gaging stations. The errors for total flow volume ranged from -0.1 to 29.0 percent, and the errors for total storm volume ranged from -15.6 to 8.4 percent. The model was calibrated and tested for water quality for seven properties and constituents with 1989–99 data. The model was calibrated sequentially for suspended sediment, water temperature, biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, nitrate nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, and orthophosphate. The simulated concentrations of the selected properties and constituents generally matched the measured concentrations available for the calibration and testing periods. The model was used to simulate total point- and nonpoint-source loads for selected properties and constituents for 1989–99 for urban, natural, and agricultural land-use types. About one-third to one-half of the biochemical oxygen demand and nutrient loads are from urban point and nonpoint sources, although only 13 percent of the total land use in the basin is urban.

The importance of diverse data types to calibrate a watershed model of the Trout Lake Basin, Northern Wisconsin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, R.J.; Feinstein, D.T.; Pint, C.D.; Anderson, M.P.

2006-01-01

As part of the USGS Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets project and the NSF Long-Term Ecological Research work, a parameter estimation code was used to calibrate a deterministic groundwater flow model of the Trout Lake Basin in northern Wisconsin. Observations included traditional calibration targets (head, lake stage, and baseflow observations) as well as unconventional targets such as groundwater flows to and from lakes, depth of a lake water plume, and time of travel. The unconventional data types were important for parameter estimation convergence and allowed the development of a more detailed parameterization capable of resolving model objectives with well-constrained parameter values. Independent estimates of groundwater inflow to lakes were most important for constraining lakebed leakance and the depth of the lake water plume was important for determining hydraulic conductivity and conceptual aquifer layering. The most important target overall, however, was a conventional regional baseflow target that led to correct distribution of flow between sub-basins and the regional system during model calibration. The use of an automated parameter estimation code: (1) facilitated the calibration process by providing a quantitative assessment of the model's ability to match disparate observed data types; and (2) allowed assessment of the influence of observed targets on the calibration process. The model calibration required the use of a 'universal' parameter estimation code in order to include all types of observations in the objective function. The methods described in this paper help address issues of watershed complexity and non-uniqueness common to deterministic watershed models. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Evaluation of Computational Model Used to Support the Integrated Powerhead Demonstration Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steele, W. G.; Molder, K. J.; Hudson, S. T.; Vadasy, K. V.; Rieder, P. T.; Giel, T.

2005-01-01

NASA and the U.S. Air Force are working on a joint project to develop a new hydrogen-fueled, full-flow, staged combustion rocket engine. The initial testing and modeling work for the Integrated Powerhead Demonstrator (IPD) project is being performed by NASA Marshall and Stennis Space Centers. A key factor in the testing of this engine is the ability to predict and measure the transient fluid flow during engine start and shutdown phases of operation. A model built by NASA Marshall in the ROCket Engine Transient Simulation (ROCETS) program is used to predict transient engine fluid flows. The model is initially calibrated to data from previous tests on the Stennis E1 test stand. The model is then used to predict the next run. Data from this run can then be used to recalibrate the model providing a tool to guide the test program in incremental steps to reduce the risk to the prototype engine. In this paper, they define this type of model as a calibrated model. This paper proposes a method to estimate the uncertainty of a model calibrated to a set of experimental test data. The method is similar to that used in the calibration of experiment instrumentation. For the IPD example used in this paper, the model uncertainty is determined for both LOX and LH flow rates using previous data. The successful use of this model is then demonstrated to predict another similar test run within the uncertainty bounds. The paper summarizes the uncertainty methodology when a model is continually recalibrated with new test data. The methodology is general and can be applied to other calibrated models.

The Ames 12-Foot Pressure Tunnel: Tunnel Empty Flow Calibration Results and Discussion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zell, Peter T.; Banducci, David E. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

An empty test section flow calibration of the refurbished NASA Ames 12-Foot Pressure Tunnel was recently completed. Distributions of total pressure, dynamic pressure, Mach number, flow angularity temperature, and turbulence are presented along with results obtained prior to facility demolition. Axial static pressure distributions along tunnel centerline are also compared. Test section model support geometric configurations will be presented along with a discussion of the issues involved with different model mounting schemes.

Base flow calibration in a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Beek, L. P.; Bierkens, M. F.

2006-12-01

Base flow constitutes an important water resource in many parts of the world. Its provenance and yield over time are governed by the storage capacity of local aquifers and the internal drainage paths, which are difficult to capture at the global scale. To represent the spatial and temporal variability in base flow adequately in a distributed global model at 0.5 degree resolution, we resorted to the conceptual model of aquifer storage of Kraaijenhoff- van de Leur (1958) that yields the reservoir coefficient for a linear groundwater store. This model was parameterised using global information on drainage density, climatology and lithology. Initial estimates of aquifer thickness, permeability and specific porosity from literature were linked to the latter two categories and calibrated to low flow data by means of simulated annealing so as to conserve the ordinal information contained by them. The observations used stem from the RivDis dataset of monthly discharge. From this dataset 324 stations were selected with at least 10 years of observations in the period 1958-1991 and an areal coverage of at least 10 cells of 0.5 degree. The dataset was split between basins into a calibration and validation set whilst preserving a representative distribution of lithology types and climate zones. Optimisation involved minimising the absolute differences between the simulated base flow and the lowest 10% of the observed monthly discharge. Subsequently, the reliability of the calibrated parameters was tested by reversing the calibration and validation sets.

Discrete Regularization for Calibration of Geologic Facies Against Dynamic Flow Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaninezhad, Mohammad-Reza; Golmohammadi, Azarang; Jafarpour, Behnam

2018-04-01

Subsurface flow model calibration involves many more unknowns than measurements, leading to ill-posed problems with nonunique solutions. To alleviate nonuniqueness, the problem is regularized by constraining the solution space using prior knowledge. In certain sedimentary environments, such as fluvial systems, the contrast in hydraulic properties of different facies types tends to dominate the flow and transport behavior, making the effect of within facies heterogeneity less significant. Hence, flow model calibration in those formations reduces to delineating the spatial structure and connectivity of different lithofacies types and their boundaries. A major difficulty in calibrating such models is honoring the discrete, or piecewise constant, nature of facies distribution. The problem becomes more challenging when complex spatial connectivity patterns with higher-order statistics are involved. This paper introduces a novel formulation for calibration of complex geologic facies by imposing appropriate constraints to recover plausible solutions that honor the spatial connectivity and discreteness of facies models. To incorporate prior connectivity patterns, plausible geologic features are learned from available training models. This is achieved by learning spatial patterns from training data, e.g., k-SVD sparse learning or the traditional Principal Component Analysis. Discrete regularization is introduced as a penalty functions to impose solution discreteness while minimizing the mismatch between observed and predicted data. An efficient gradient-based alternating directions algorithm is combined with variable splitting to minimize the resulting regularized nonlinear least squares objective function. Numerical results show that imposing learned facies connectivity and discreteness as regularization functions leads to geologically consistent solutions that improve facies calibration quality.

Evaluation of a watershed model for estimating daily flow using limited flow measurements

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was evaluated for estimation of continuous daily flow based on limited flow measurements in the Upper Oyster Creek (UOC) watershed. SWAT was calibrated against limited measured flow data and then validated. The Nash-Sutcliffe model Efficiency (NSE) and...

Learning an Eddy Viscosity Model Using Shrinkage and Bayesian Calibration: A Jet-in-Crossflow Case Study

DOE PAGES

Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; Arunajatesan, Srinivasan; ...

2017-09-07

In this paper, we demonstrate a statistical procedure for learning a high-order eddy viscosity model (EVM) from experimental data and using it to improve the predictive skill of a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulator. The method is tested in a three-dimensional (3D), transonic jet-in-crossflow (JIC) configuration. The process starts with a cubic eddy viscosity model (CEVM) developed for incompressible flows. It is fitted to limited experimental JIC data using shrinkage regression. The shrinkage process removes all the terms from the model, except an intercept, a linear term, and a quadratic one involving the square of the vorticity. The shrunk eddy viscositymore » model is implemented in an RANS simulator and calibrated, using vorticity measurements, to infer three parameters. The calibration is Bayesian and is solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A 3D probability density distribution for the inferred parameters is constructed, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimate. The phenomenal cost of using a 3D flow simulator inside an MCMC loop is mitigated by using surrogate models (“curve-fits”). A support vector machine classifier (SVMC) is used to impose our prior belief regarding parameter values, specifically to exclude nonphysical parameter combinations. The calibrated model is compared, in terms of its predictive skill, to simulations using uncalibrated linear and CEVMs. Finally, we find that the calibrated model, with one quadratic term, is more accurate than the uncalibrated simulator. The model is also checked at a flow condition at which the model was not calibrated.« less

Learning an Eddy Viscosity Model Using Shrinkage and Bayesian Calibration: A Jet-in-Crossflow Case Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; Arunajatesan, Srinivasan

In this paper, we demonstrate a statistical procedure for learning a high-order eddy viscosity model (EVM) from experimental data and using it to improve the predictive skill of a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulator. The method is tested in a three-dimensional (3D), transonic jet-in-crossflow (JIC) configuration. The process starts with a cubic eddy viscosity model (CEVM) developed for incompressible flows. It is fitted to limited experimental JIC data using shrinkage regression. The shrinkage process removes all the terms from the model, except an intercept, a linear term, and a quadratic one involving the square of the vorticity. The shrunk eddy viscositymore » model is implemented in an RANS simulator and calibrated, using vorticity measurements, to infer three parameters. The calibration is Bayesian and is solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. A 3D probability density distribution for the inferred parameters is constructed, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimate. The phenomenal cost of using a 3D flow simulator inside an MCMC loop is mitigated by using surrogate models (“curve-fits”). A support vector machine classifier (SVMC) is used to impose our prior belief regarding parameter values, specifically to exclude nonphysical parameter combinations. The calibrated model is compared, in terms of its predictive skill, to simulations using uncalibrated linear and CEVMs. Finally, we find that the calibrated model, with one quadratic term, is more accurate than the uncalibrated simulator. The model is also checked at a flow condition at which the model was not calibrated.« less

Modeling microelectrode biosensors: free-flow calibration can substantially underestimate tissue concentrations

PubMed Central

Wall, Mark J.

2016-01-01

Microelectrode amperometric biosensors are widely used to measure concentrations of analytes in solution and tissue including acetylcholine, adenosine, glucose, and glutamate. A great deal of experimental and modeling effort has been directed at quantifying the response of the biosensors themselves; however, the influence that the macroscopic tissue environment has on biosensor response has not been subjected to the same level of scrutiny. Here we identify an important issue in the way microelectrode biosensors are calibrated that is likely to have led to underestimations of analyte tissue concentrations. Concentration in tissue is typically determined by comparing the biosensor signal to that measured in free-flow calibration conditions. In a free-flow environment the concentration of the analyte at the outer surface of the biosensor can be considered constant. However, in tissue the analyte reaches the biosensor surface by diffusion through the extracellular space. Because the enzymes in the biosensor break down the analyte, a density gradient is set up resulting in a significantly lower concentration of analyte near the biosensor surface. This effect is compounded by the diminished volume fraction (porosity) and reduction in the diffusion coefficient due to obstructions (tortuosity) in tissue. We demonstrate this effect through modeling and experimentally verify our predictions in diffusive environments. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Microelectrode biosensors are typically calibrated in a free-flow environment where the concentrations at the biosensor surface are constant. However, when in tissue, the analyte reaches the biosensor via diffusion and so analyte breakdown by the biosensor results in a concentration gradient and consequently a lower concentration around the biosensor. This effect means that naive free-flow calibration will underestimate tissue concentration. We develop mathematical models to better quantify the discrepancy between the calibration and tissue environment and experimentally verify our key predictions. PMID:27927788

Modeling microelectrode biosensors: free-flow calibration can substantially underestimate tissue concentrations.

PubMed

Newton, Adam J H; Wall, Mark J; Richardson, Magnus J E

2017-03-01

Microelectrode amperometric biosensors are widely used to measure concentrations of analytes in solution and tissue including acetylcholine, adenosine, glucose, and glutamate. A great deal of experimental and modeling effort has been directed at quantifying the response of the biosensors themselves; however, the influence that the macroscopic tissue environment has on biosensor response has not been subjected to the same level of scrutiny. Here we identify an important issue in the way microelectrode biosensors are calibrated that is likely to have led to underestimations of analyte tissue concentrations. Concentration in tissue is typically determined by comparing the biosensor signal to that measured in free-flow calibration conditions. In a free-flow environment the concentration of the analyte at the outer surface of the biosensor can be considered constant. However, in tissue the analyte reaches the biosensor surface by diffusion through the extracellular space. Because the enzymes in the biosensor break down the analyte, a density gradient is set up resulting in a significantly lower concentration of analyte near the biosensor surface. This effect is compounded by the diminished volume fraction (porosity) and reduction in the diffusion coefficient due to obstructions (tortuosity) in tissue. We demonstrate this effect through modeling and experimentally verify our predictions in diffusive environments. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Microelectrode biosensors are typically calibrated in a free-flow environment where the concentrations at the biosensor surface are constant. However, when in tissue, the analyte reaches the biosensor via diffusion and so analyte breakdown by the biosensor results in a concentration gradient and consequently a lower concentration around the biosensor. This effect means that naive free-flow calibration will underestimate tissue concentration. We develop mathematical models to better quantify the discrepancy between the calibration and tissue environment and experimentally verify our key predictions. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

2017-10-24

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models of 12 river basins in western Iowa will provide water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites and aid in environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects.

Flow and transport model of the Savannah River Site Old Burial Grounds using Data Fusion modeling (DFM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-11-01

The Data Fusion Modeling (DFM) approach has been used to develop a groundwater flow and transport model of the Old Burial Grounds (OBG) at the US Department of Energy`s Savannah River Site (SRS). The resulting DFM model was compared to an existing model that was calibrated via the typical trial-and-error method. The OBG was chosen because a substantial amount of hydrogeologic information is available, a FACT (derivative of VAM3DCG) flow and transport model of the site exists, and the calibration and numerics were challenging with standard approaches. The DFM flow model developed here is similar to the flow model bymore » Flach et al. This allows comparison of the two flow models and validates the utility of DFM. The contaminant of interest for this study is tritium, because it is a geochemically conservative tracer that has been monitored along the seepline near the F-Area effluent and Fourmile Branch for several years.« less

Development and Calibration of Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model of the Tanana River near Tok, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conaway, Jeffrey S.; Moran, Edward H.

2004-01-01

Bathymetric and hydraulic data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey on the Tanana River in proximity to Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities' bridge number 505 at mile 80.5 of the Alaska Highway. Data were collected from August 7-9, 2002, over an approximate 5,000- foot reach of the river. These data were combined with topographic data provided by Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities to generate a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic model was calibrated with water-surface elevations, flow velocities, and flow directions collected at a discharge of 25,600 cubic feet per second. The calibrated model was then used for a simulation of the 100-year recurrence interval discharge of 51,900 cubic feet per second. The existing bridge piers were removed from the model geometry in a second simulation to model the hydraulic conditions in the channel without the piers' influence. The water-surface elevations, flow velocities, and flow directions from these simulations can be used to evaluate the influence of the piers on flow hydraulics and will assist the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities in the design of a replacement bridge.

Calibration of a γ- Re θ transition model and its application in low-speed flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, YunTao; Zhang, YuLun; Meng, DeHong; Wang, GunXue; Li, Song

2014-12-01

The prediction of laminar-turbulent transition in boundary layer is very important for obtaining accurate aerodynamic characteristics with computational fluid dynamic (CFD) tools, because laminar-turbulent transition is directly related to complex flow phenomena in boundary layer and separated flow in space. Unfortunately, the transition effect isn't included in today's major CFD tools because of non-local calculations in transition modeling. In this paper, Menter's γ- Re θ transition model is calibrated and incorporated into a Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) code — Trisonic Platform (TRIP) developed in China Aerodynamic Research and Development Center (CARDC). Based on the experimental data of flat plate from the literature, the empirical correlations involved in the transition model are modified and calibrated numerically. Numerical simulation for low-speed flow of Trapezoidal Wing (Trap Wing) is performed and compared with the corresponding experimental data. It is indicated that the γ- Re θ transition model can accurately predict the location of separation-induced transition and natural transition in the flow region with moderate pressure gradient. The transition model effectively imporves the simulation accuracy of the boundary layer and aerodynamic characteristics.

Modeling Improvements and Users Manual for Axial-flow Turbine Off-design Computer Code AXOD

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glassman, Arthur J.

1994-01-01

An axial-flow turbine off-design performance computer code used for preliminary studies of gas turbine systems was modified and calibrated based on the experimental performance of large aircraft-type turbines. The flow- and loss-model modifications and calibrations are presented in this report. Comparisons are made between computed performances and experimental data for seven turbines over wide ranges of speed and pressure ratio. This report also serves as the users manual for the revised code, which is named AXOD.

Cone-Probe Rake Design and Calibration for Supersonic Wind Tunnel Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Won, Mark J.

1999-01-01

A series of experimental investigations were conducted at the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT) to calibrate cone-probe rakes designed to measure the flow field on 1-2% scale, high-speed wind tunnel models from Mach 2.15 to 2.4. The rakes were developed from a previous design that exhibited unfavorable measurement characteristics caused by a high probe spatial density and flow blockage from the rake body. Calibration parameters included Mach number, total pressure recovery, and flow angularity. Reference conditions were determined from a localized UPWT test section flow survey using a 10deg supersonic wedge probe. Test section Mach number and total pressure were determined using a novel iterative technique that accounted for boundary layer effects on the wedge surface. Cone-probe measurements were correlated to the surveyed flow conditions using analytical functions and recursive algorithms that resolved Mach number, pressure recovery, and flow angle to within +/-0.01, +/-1% and +/-0.1deg , respectively, for angles of attack and sideslip between +/-8deg. Uncertainty estimates indicated the overall cone-probe calibration accuracy was strongly influenced by the propagation of measurement error into the calculated results.

A computer program for calculating relative-transmissivity input arrays to aid model calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiss, Emanuel

1982-01-01

A program is documented that calculates a transmissivity distribution for input to a digital ground-water flow model. Factors that are taken into account in the calculation are: aquifer thickness, ground-water viscosity and its dependence on temperature and dissolved solids, and permeability and its dependence on overburden pressure. Other factors affecting ground-water flow are indicated. With small changes in the program code, leakance also could be calculated. The purpose of these calculations is to provide a physical basis for efficient calibration, and to extend rational transmissivity trends into areas where model calibration is insensitive to transmissivity values.

Parameter Optimisation and Uncertainty Analysis in Visual MODFLOW based Flow Model for predicting the groundwater head in an Eastern Indian Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohanty, B.; Jena, S.; Panda, R. K.

2016-12-01

The overexploitation of groundwater elicited in abandoning several shallow tube wells in the study Basin in Eastern India. For the sustainability of groundwater resources, basin-scale modelling of groundwater flow is indispensable for the effective planning and management of the water resources. The basic intent of this study is to develop a 3-D groundwater flow model of the study basin using the Visual MODFLOW Flex 2014.2 package and successfully calibrate and validate the model using 17 years of observed data. The sensitivity analysis was carried out to quantify the susceptibility of aquifer system to the river bank seepage, recharge from rainfall and agriculture practices, horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities, and specific yield. To quantify the impact of parameter uncertainties, Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (McMC) techniques were implemented. Results from the two techniques were compared and the advantages and disadvantages were analysed. Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE), Coefficient of Determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Percent Deviation (Dv) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) were adopted as criteria of model evaluation during calibration and validation of the developed model. NSE, R2, MAE, Dv and RMSE values for groundwater flow model during calibration and validation were in acceptable range. Also, the McMC technique was able to provide more reasonable results than SUFI-2. The calibrated and validated model will be useful to identify the aquifer properties, analyse the groundwater flow dynamics and the change in groundwater levels in future forecasts.

Watershed model calibration framework developed using an influence coefficient algorithm and a genetic algorithm and analysis of pollutant discharge characteristics and load reduction in a TMDL planning area.

PubMed

Cho, Jae Heon; Lee, Jong Ho

2015-11-01

Manual calibration is common in rainfall-runoff model applications. However, rainfall-runoff models include several complicated parameters; thus, significant time and effort are required to manually calibrate the parameters individually and repeatedly. Automatic calibration has relative merit regarding time efficiency and objectivity but shortcomings regarding understanding indigenous processes in the basin. In this study, a watershed model calibration framework was developed using an influence coefficient algorithm and genetic algorithm (WMCIG) to automatically calibrate the distributed models. The optimization problem used to minimize the sum of squares of the normalized residuals of the observed and predicted values was solved using a genetic algorithm (GA). The final model parameters were determined from the iteration with the smallest sum of squares of the normalized residuals of all iterations. The WMCIG was applied to a Gomakwoncheon watershed located in an area that presents a total maximum daily load (TMDL) in Korea. The proportion of urbanized area in this watershed is low, and the diffuse pollution loads of nutrients such as phosphorus are greater than the point-source pollution loads because of the concentration of rainfall that occurs during the summer. The pollution discharges from the watershed were estimated for each land-use type, and the seasonal variations of the pollution loads were analyzed. Consecutive flow measurement gauges have not been installed in this area, and it is difficult to survey the flow and water quality in this area during the frequent heavy rainfall that occurs during the wet season. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model was used to calculate the runoff flow and water quality in this basin. Using the water quality results, a load duration curve was constructed for the basin, the exceedance frequency of the water quality standard was calculated for each hydrologic condition class, and the percent reduction required to achieve the water quality standard was estimated. The R(2) value for the calibrated BOD5 was 0.60, which is a moderate result, and the R(2) value for the TP was 0.86, which is a good result. The percent differences obtained for the calibrated BOD5 and TP were very good; therefore, the calibration results using WMCIG were satisfactory. From the load duration curve analysis, the WQS exceedance frequencies of the BOD5 under dry conditions and low-flow conditions were 75.7% and 65%, respectively, and the exceedance frequencies under moist and mid-range conditions were higher than under other conditions. The exceedance frequencies of the TP for the high-flow, moist and mid-range conditions were high and the exceedance rate for the high-flow condition was particularly high. Most of the data from the high-flow conditions exceeded the WQSs. Thus, nonpoint-source pollutants from storm-water runoff substantially affected the TP concentration in the Gomakwoncheon. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the quantification uncertainty from flow injection and liquid chromatography transient signals in inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laborda, Francisco; Medrano, Jesús; Castillo, Juan R.

2004-06-01

The quality of the quantitative results obtained from transient signals in high-performance liquid chromatography-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HPLC-ICPMS) and flow injection-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (FI-ICPMS) was investigated under multielement conditions. Quantification methods were based on multiple-point calibration by simple and weighted linear regression, and double-point calibration (measurement of the baseline and one standard). An uncertainty model, which includes the main sources of uncertainty from FI-ICPMS and HPLC-ICPMS (signal measurement, sample flow rate and injection volume), was developed to estimate peak area uncertainties and statistical weights used in weighted linear regression. The behaviour of the ICPMS instrument was characterized in order to be considered in the model, concluding that the instrument works as a concentration detector when it is used to monitorize transient signals from flow injection or chromatographic separations. Proper quantification by the three calibration methods was achieved when compared to reference materials, although the double-point calibration allowed to obtain results of the same quality as the multiple-point calibration, shortening the calibration time. Relative expanded uncertainties ranged from 10-20% for concentrations around the LOQ to 5% for concentrations higher than 100 times the LOQ.

Modeling Streamflow and Water Temperature in the North Santiam and Santiam Rivers, Oregon, 2001-02

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Annett B.; Roundsk, Stewart A.

2004-01-01

To support the development of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) for water temperature in the Willamette Basin, the laterally averaged, two-dimensional model CE-QUAL-W2 was used to construct a water temperature and streamflow model of the Santiam and North Santiam Rivers. The rivers were simulated from downstream of Detroit and Big Cliff dams to the confluence with the Willamette River. Inputs to the model included bathymetric data, flow and temperature from dam releases, tributary flow and temperature, and meteorologic data. The model was calibrated for the period July 1 through November 21, 2001, and confirmed with data from April 1 through October 31, 2002. Flow calibration made use of data from two streamflow gages and travel-time and river-width data. Temperature calibration used data from 16 temperature monitoring locations in 2001 and 5 locations in 2002. A sensitivity analysis was completed by independently varying input parameters, including point-source flow, air temperature, flow and water temperature from dam releases, and riparian shading. Scenario analyses considered hypothetical river conditions without anthropogenic heat inputs, with restored riparian vegetation, with minimum streamflow from the dams, and with a more-natural seasonal water temperature regime from dam releases.

Hydrologic Model Development and Calibration: Contrasting a Single- and Multi-Objective Approach for Comparing Model Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadzadeh, M.; Maclean, A.; Tolson, B. A.; Burn, D. H.

2009-05-01

Hydrologic model calibration aims to find a set of parameters that adequately simulates observations of watershed behavior, such as streamflow, or a state variable, such as snow water equivalent (SWE). There are different metrics for evaluating calibration effectiveness that involve quantifying prediction errors, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient and bias evaluated for the entire calibration period, on a seasonal basis, for low flows, or for high flows. Many of these metrics are conflicting such that the set of parameters that maximizes the high flow NS differs from the set of parameters that maximizes the low flow NS. Conflicting objectives are very likely when different calibration objectives are based on different fluxes and/or state variables (e.g., NS based on streamflow versus SWE). One of the most popular ways to balance different metrics is to aggregate them based on their importance and find the set of parameters that optimizes a weighted sum of the efficiency metrics. Comparing alternative hydrologic models (e.g., assessing model improvement when a process or more detail is added to the model) based on the aggregated objective might be misleading since it represents one point on the tradeoff of desired error metrics. To derive a more comprehensive model comparison, we solved a bi-objective calibration problem to estimate the tradeoff between two error metrics for each model. Although this approach is computationally more expensive than the aggregation approach, it results in a better understanding of the effectiveness of selected models at each level of every error metric and therefore provides a better rationale for judging relative model quality. The two alternative models used in this study are two MESH hydrologic models (version 1.2) of the Wolf Creek Research basin that differ in their watershed spatial discretization (a single Grouped Response Unit, GRU, versus multiple GRUs). The MESH model, currently under development by Environment Canada, is a coupled land-surface and hydrologic model. Results will demonstrate the conclusions a modeller might make regarding the value of additional watershed spatial discretization under both an aggregated (single-objective) and multi-objective model comparison framework.

Model calibration of a variable refrigerant flow system with a dedicated outdoor air system: A case study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Dongsu; Cox, Sam J.; Cho, Heejin

With increased use of variable refrigerant flow (VRF) systems in the U.S. building sector, interests in capability and rationality of various building energy modeling tools to simulate VRF systems are rising. This paper presents the detailed procedures for model calibration of a VRF system with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) by comparing to detailed measured data from an occupancy emulated small office building. The building energy model is first developed based on as-built drawings, and building and system characteristics available. The whole building energy modeling tool used for the study is U.S. DOE’s EnergyPlus version 8.1. The initial modelmore » is, then, calibrated with the hourly measured data from the target building and VRF-DOAS system. In a detailed calibration procedures of the VRF-DOAS, the original EnergyPlus source code is modified to enable the modeling of the specific VRF-DOAS installed in the building. After a proper calibration during cooling and heating seasons, the VRF-DOAS model can reasonably predict the performance of the actual VRF-DOAS system based on the criteria from ASHRAE Guideline 14-2014. The calibration results show that hourly CV-RMSE and NMBE would be 15.7% and 3.8%, respectively, which is deemed to be calibrated. As a result, the whole-building energy usage after calibration of the VRF-DOAS model is 1.9% (78.8 kWh) lower than that of the measurements during comparison period.« less

The use of groundwater age as a calibration target

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konikow, Leonard F.; Hornberger, G.Z.; Putnam, L.D.; Shapiro, A.M.; Zinn, B.A.

2008-01-01

Groundwater age (or residence time), as estimated on the basis of concentrations of one or more environmental tracers, can provide a useful and independent calibration target for groundwater models. However, concentrations of environmental tracers are affected by the complexities and mixing inherent in groundwater flow through heterogeneous media, especially in the presence of pumping wells. An analysis of flow and age distribution in the Madison aquifer in South Dakota, USA, illustrates the additional benefits and difficulties of using age as a calibration target. Alternative numerical approaches to estimating travel time and age with backward particle tracking are assessed, and the resulting estimates are used to refine estimates of effective porosity and to help assess the adequacy and credibility of the flow model.

Calibration of the k- ɛ model constants for use in CFD applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glover, Nina; Guillias, Serge; Malki-Epshtein, Liora

2011-11-01

The k- ɛ turbulence model is a popular choice in CFD modelling due to its robust nature and the fact that it has been well validated. However it has been noted in previous research that the k- ɛ model has problems predicting flow separation as well as unconfined and transient flows. The model contains five empirical model constants whose values were found through data fitting for a wide range of flows (Launder 1972) but ad-hoc adjustments are often made to these values depending on the situation being modeled. Here we use the example of flow within a regular street canyon to perform a Bayesian calibration of the model constants against wind tunnel data. This allows us to assess the sensitivity of the CFD model to changes in these constants, find the most suitable values for the constants as well as quantifying the uncertainty related to the constants and the CFD model as a whole.

Diffuse-flow conceptualization and simulation of the Edwards aquifer, San Antonio region, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindgren, R.J.

2006-01-01

A numerical ground-water-flow model (hereinafter, the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model) of the karstic Edwards aquifer in south-central Texas was developed for a previous study on the basis of a conceptualization emphasizing conduit development and conduit flow, and included simulating conduits as one-cell-wide, continuously connected features. Uncertainties regarding the degree to which conduits pervade the Edwards aquifer and influence ground-water flow, as well as other uncertainties inherent in simulating conduits, raised the question of whether a model based on the conduit-flow conceptualization was the optimum model for the Edwards aquifer. Accordingly, a model with an alternative hydraulic conductivity distribution without conduits was developed in a study conducted during 2004-05 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System. The hydraulic conductivity distribution for the modified Edwards aquifer model (hereinafter, the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model), based primarily on a conceptualization in which flow in the aquifer predominantly is through a network of numerous small fractures and openings, includes 38 zones, with hydraulic conductivities ranging from 3 to 50,000 feet per day. Revision of model input data for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model was limited to changes in the simulated hydraulic conductivity distribution. The root-mean-square error for 144 target wells for the calibrated steady-state simulation for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model is 20.9 feet. This error represents about 3 percent of the total head difference across the model area. The simulated springflows for Comal and San Marcos Springs for the calibrated steady-state simulation were within 2.4 and 15 percent of the median springflows for the two springs, respectively. The transient calibration period for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model was 1947-2000, with 648 monthly stress periods, the same as for the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model. The root-mean-square error for a period of drought (May-November 1956) for the calibrated transient simulation for 171 target wells is 33.4 feet, which represents about 5 percent of the total head difference across the model area. The root-mean-square error for a period of above-normal rainfall (November 1974-July 1975) for the calibrated transient simulation for 169 target wells is 25.8 feet, which represents about 4 percent of the total head difference across the model area. The root-mean-square error ranged from 6.3 to 30.4 feet in 12 target wells with long-term water-level measurements for varying periods during 1947-2000 for the calibrated transient simulation for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model, and these errors represent 5.0 to 31.3 percent of the range in water-level fluctuations of each of those wells. The root-mean-square errors for the five major springs in the San Antonio segment of the aquifer for the calibrated transient simulation, as a percentage of the range of discharge fluctuations measured at the springs, varied from 7.2 percent for San Marcos Springs and 8.1 percent for Comal Springs to 28.8 percent for Leona Springs. The root-mean-square errors for hydraulic heads for the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model are 27, 76, and 30 percent greater than those for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model for the steady-state, drought, and above-normal rainfall synoptic time periods, respectively. The goodness-of-fit between measured and simulated springflows is similar for Comal, San Marcos, and Leona Springs for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model and the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model. The root-mean-square errors for Comal and Leona Springs were 15.6 and 21.3 percent less, respectively, whereas the root-mean-square error for San Marcos Springs was 3.3 percent greater for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model compared to the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model. The root-mean-square errors for San Antonio and San Pedro Springs were appreciably greater, 80.2 and 51.0 percent, respectively, for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model. The simulated water budgets for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model are similar to those for the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model. Differences in percentage of total sources or discharges for a budget component are 2.0 percent or less for all budget components for the steady-state and transient simulations. The largest difference in terms of the magnitude of water budget components for the transient simulation for 1956 was a decrease of about 10,730 acre-feet per year (about 2 per-cent) in springflow for the diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer model compared to the conduit-flow Edwards aquifer model. This decrease in springflow (a water budget discharge) was largely offset by the decreased net loss of water from storage (a water budget source) of about 10,500 acre-feet per year.

Flush Airdata Sensing (FADS) System Calibration Procedures and Results for Blunt Forebodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cobleigh, Brent R.; Whitmore, Stephen A.; Haering, Edward A., Jr.; Borrer, Jerry; Roback, V. Eric

1999-01-01

Blunt-forebody pressure data are used to study the behavior of the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center flush airdata sensing (FADS) pressure model and solution algorithm. The model relates surface pressure measurements to the airdata state. Spliced from the potential flow solution for uniform flow over a sphere and the modified Newtonian impact theory, the model was shown to apply to a wide range of blunt-forebody shapes and Mach numbers. Calibrations of a sphere, spherical cones, a Rankine half body, and the F-14, F/A-18, X-33, X-34, and X-38 configurations are shown. The three calibration parameters are well-behaved from Mach 0.25 to Mach 5.0, an angle-of-attack range extending to greater than 30 deg, and an angle-of-sideslip range extending to greater than 15 deg. Contrary to the sharp calibration changes found on traditional pitot-static systems at transonic speeds, the FADS calibrations are smooth, monotonic functions of Mach number and effective angles of attack and sideslip. Because the FADS calibration is sensitive to pressure port location, detailed measurements of the actual pressure port locations on the flight vehicle are required and the wind-tunnel calibration model should have pressure ports in similar locations. The procedure for calibrating a FADS system is outlined.

Calibration of averaging total pressure flight wake rake and natural-laminar-flow airfoil drag certification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Irani, E.; Snyder, M. H.

1988-01-01

An averaging total pressure wake rake used by the Cessna Aircraft Company in flight tests of a modified 210 airplane with a laminar flow wing was calibrated in wind tunnel tests against a five-tube pressure probe. The model generating the wake was a full-scale model of the Cessna airplane wing. Indications of drag trends were the same for both instruments.

Application of nonlinear-regression methods to a ground-water flow model of the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, C.R.; Kernodle, J.M.; McAda, D.P.

1998-01-01

This report documents the application of nonlinear-regression methods to a numerical model of ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin, New Mexico. In the Albuquerque Basin, ground water is the primary source for most water uses. Ground-water withdrawal has steadily increased since the 1940's, resulting in large declines in water levels in the Albuquerque area. A ground-water flow model was developed in 1994 and revised and updated in 1995 for the purpose of managing basin ground- water resources. In the work presented here, nonlinear-regression methods were applied to a modified version of the previous flow model. Goals of this work were to use regression methods to calibrate the model with each of six different configurations of the basin subsurface and to assess and compare optimal parameter estimates, model fit, and model error among the resulting calibrations. The Albuquerque Basin is one in a series of north trending structural basins within the Rio Grande Rift, a region of Cenozoic crustal extension. Mountains, uplifts, and fault zones bound the basin, and rock units within the basin include pre-Santa Fe Group deposits, Tertiary Santa Fe Group basin fill, and post-Santa Fe Group volcanics and sediments. The Santa Fe Group is greater than 14,000 feet (ft) thick in the central part of the basin. During deposition of the Santa Fe Group, crustal extension resulted in development of north trending normal faults with vertical displacements of as much as 30,000 ft. Ground-water flow in the Albuquerque Basin occurs primarily in the Santa Fe Group and post-Santa Fe Group deposits. Water flows between the ground-water system and surface-water bodies in the inner valley of the basin, where the Rio Grande, a network of interconnected canals and drains, and Cochiti Reservoir are located. Recharge to the ground-water flow system occurs as infiltration of precipitation along mountain fronts and infiltration of stream water along tributaries to the Rio Grande; subsurface flow from adjacent regions; irrigation and septic field seepage; and leakage through the Rio Grande, canal, and Cochiti Reservoir beds. Ground water is discharged from the basin by withdrawal; evapotranspiration; subsurface flow; and flow to the Rio Grande, canals, and drains. The transient, three-dimensional numerical model of ground-water flow to which nonlinear-regression methods were applied simulates flow in the Albuquerque Basin from 1900 to March 1995. Six different basin subsurface configurations are considered in the model. These configurations are designed to test the effects of (1) varying the simulated basin thickness, (2) including a hypothesized hydrogeologic unit with large hydraulic conductivity in the western part of the basin (the west basin high-K zone), and (3) substantially lowering the simulated hydraulic conductivity of a fault in the western part of the basin (the low-K fault zone). The model with each of the subsurface configurations was calibrated using a nonlinear least- squares regression technique. The calibration data set includes 802 hydraulic-head measurements that provide broad spatial and temporal coverage of basin conditions, and one measurement of net flow from the Rio Grande and drains to the ground-water system in the Albuquerque area. Data are weighted on the basis of estimates of the standard deviations of measurement errors. The 10 to 12 parameters to which the calibration data as a whole are generally most sensitive were estimated by nonlinear regression, whereas the remaining model parameter values were specified. Results of model calibration indicate that the optimal parameter estimates as a whole are most reasonable in calibrations of the model with with configurations 3 (which contains 1,600-ft-thick basin deposits and the west basin high-K zone), 4 (which contains 5,000-ft-thick basin de

Predicting ecological flow regime at ungaged sites: A comparison of methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Jennifer C.; Knight, Rodney R.; Wolfe, William J.; Gain, W. Scott

2012-01-01

Nineteen ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics were estimated using published rainfall–runoff and regional regression models for six sites with observed daily streamflow records in Kentucky. The regional regression model produced median estimates closer to the observed median for all but two characteristics. The variability of predictions from both models was generally less than the observed variability. The variability of the predictions from the rainfall–runoff model was greater than that from the regional regression model for all but three characteristics. Eight characteristics predicted by the rainfall–runoff model display positive or negative bias across all six sites; biases are not as pronounced for the regional regression model. Results suggest that a rainfall–runoff model calibrated on a single characteristic is less likely to perform well as a predictor of a range of other characteristics (flow regime) when compared with a regional regression model calibrated individually on multiple characteristics used to represent the flow regime. Poor model performance may misrepresent hydrologic conditions, potentially distorting the perceived risk of ecological degradation. Without prior selection of streamflow characteristics, targeted calibration, and error quantification, the widespread application of general hydrologic models to ecological flow studies is problematic. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Modeling the October 2005 lahars at Panabaj (Guatemala)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C. B.; Connor, L. J.; Sheridan, M. F.; Oliva Hernández, J. P.; Richardson, J. A.

2018-01-01

An extreme rainfall event in October of 2005 triggered two deadly lahars on the flanks of Tolimán volcano (Guatemala) that caused many fatalities in the village of Panabaj. We mapped the deposits of these lahars, then developed computer simulations of the lahars using the geologic data and compared simulated area inundated by the flows to mapped area inundated. Computer simulation of the two lahars was dramatically improved after calibration with geological data. Specifically, detailed field measurements of flow inundation area, flow thickness, flow direction, and velocity estimates, collected after lahar emplacement, were used to calibrate the rheological input parameters for the models, including deposit volume, yield strength, sediment and water concentrations, and Manning roughness coefficients. Simulations of the two lahars, with volumes of 240,200 ± 55,400 and 126,000 ± 29,000 m3, using the FLO-2D computer program produced models of lahar runout within 3% of measured runouts and produced reasonable estimates of flow thickness and velocity along the lengths of the simulated flows. We compare areas inundated using the Jaccard fit, model sensitivity, and model precision metrics, all related to Bayes' theorem. These metrics show that false negatives (areas inundated by the observed lahar where not simulated) and false positives (areas not inundated by the observed lahar where inundation was simulated) are reduced using a model calibrated by rheology. The metrics offer a procedure for tuning model performance that will enhance model accuracy and make numerical models a more robust tool for natural hazard reduction.

Respiratory flow-sound relationship during both wakefulness and sleep and its variation in relation to sleep apnea.

PubMed

Yadollahi, Azadeh; Montazeri, Aman; Azarbarzin, Ali; Moussavi, Zahra

2013-03-01

Tracheal respiratory sound analysis is a simple and non-invasive way to study the pathophysiology of the upper airway and has recently been used for acoustic estimation of respiratory flow and sleep apnea diagnosis. However in none of the previous studies was the respiratory flow-sound relationship studied in people with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), nor during sleep. In this study, we recorded tracheal sound, respiratory flow, and head position from eight non-OSA and 10 OSA individuals during sleep and wakefulness. We compared the flow-sound relationship and variations in model parameters from wakefulness to sleep within and between the two groups. The results show that during both wakefulness and sleep, flow-sound relationship follows a power law but with different parameters. Furthermore, the variations in model parameters may be representative of the OSA pathology. The other objective of this study was to examine the accuracy of respiratory flow estimation algorithms during sleep: we investigated two approaches for calibrating the model parameters using the known data recorded during either wakefulness or sleep. The results show that the acoustical respiratory flow estimation parameters change from wakefulness to sleep. Therefore, if the model is calibrated using wakefulness data, although the estimated respiratory flow follows the relative variations of the real flow, the quantitative flow estimation error would be high during sleep. On the other hand, when the calibration parameters are extracted from tracheal sound and respiratory flow recordings during sleep, the respiratory flow estimation error is less than 10%.

Ground-Water Flow in the Vicinity of the Ho-Chunk Nation Communities of Indian Mission and Sand Pillow, Jackson County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunning, Charles P.; Mueller, Gregory D.; Juckem, Paul F.

2008-01-01

An analytic element ground-water-flow model was constructed to help understand the ground-water-flow system in the vicinity of the Ho-Chunk Nation communities of Indian Mission and Sand Pillow in Jackson County, Wisconsin. Data from interpretive reports, well-drillers' construction reports, and an exploratory augering program in 2003 indicate that sand and gravel of varying thickness (0-150 feet[ft]) and porous sandstone make up a composite aquifer that overlies Precambrian crystalline rock. The geometric mean values for horizontal hydraulic conductivity were estimated from specific-capacity data to be 61.3 feet per day (ft/d) for sand and gravel, 6.6 ft/d for sandstone, and 12.0 ft/d for the composite aquifer. A ground-water flow model was constructed, the near field of which encompassed the Levis and Morrison Creeks Watershed. The flow model was coupled to the parameter-estimation program UCODE to obtain a best fit between simulated and measured values of ground-water levels and estimated Q50 flow duration (base flow). Calibration of the model with UCODE provided a ground-water recharge rate of 9 inches per year and a horizontal hydraulic conductivity of 13 ft/d for the composite aquifer. Using these calibrated parameter values, simulated heads from the model were on average within 5 ft of the measured water levels. In addition, these parameter values provided an acceptable base-flow calibration for Hay, Dickey, and Levis Creeks; the calibration was particularly close for Levis Creek, which was the most frequently measured stream in the study area. The calibrated model was used to simulate ground-water levels and to determine the direction of ground-water flow in the vicinity of Indian Mission and Sand Pillow communities. Backward particle tracking was conducted for Sand Pillow production wells under two pumping simulations to determine their 20-year contributing areas. In the first simulation, new production wells 6, 7, and 8 were each pumped at 50 gallons per minute (gal/min). In the second simulation, new production wells 6, 7, and 8 and existing production well 5 were each pumped at 50 gal/min. The second simulation demonstrated interference between the existing production well 5 and the new production wells when all were pumping at 50 gal/min.

Groundwater flow simulation of the Savannah River Site general separations area

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flach, G.; Bagwell, L.; Bennett, P.

The most recent groundwater flow model of the General Separations Area, Savannah River Site, is referred to as the “GSA/PORFLOW” model. GSA/PORFLOW was developed in 2004 by porting an existing General Separations Area groundwater flow model from the FACT code to the PORFLOW code. The preceding “GSA/FACT” model was developed in 1997 using characterization and monitoring data through the mid-1990’s. Both models were manually calibrated to field data. Significantly more field data have been acquired since the 1990’s and model calibration using mathematical optimization software has become routine and recommended practice. The current task involved updating the GSA/PORFLOW model usingmore » selected field data current through at least 2015, and use of the PEST code to calibrate the model and quantify parameter uncertainty. This new GSA groundwater flow model is named “GSA2016” in reference to the year in which most development occurred. The GSA2016 model update is intended to address issues raised by the DOE Low-Level Waste (LLW) Disposal Facility Federal Review Group (LFRG) in a 2008 review of the E-Area Performance Assessment, and by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in reviews of tank closure and Saltstone Disposal Facility Performance Assessments.« less

A Precipitation-Runoff Model for the Blackstone River Basin, Massachusetts and Rhode Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbaro, Jeffrey R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.

2007-01-01

A Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model of the Blackstone River Basin was developed and calibrated to study the effects of changing land- and water-use patterns on water resources. The 474.5 mi2 Blackstone River Basin in southeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island is experiencing rapid population and commercial growth throughout much of its area. This growth and the corresponding changes in land-use patterns are increasing stress on water resources and raising concerns about the future availability of water to meet residential and commercial needs. Increased withdrawals and wastewater-return flows also could adversely affect aquatic habitat, water quality, and the recreational value of the streams in the basin. The Blackstone River Basin was represented by 19 hydrologic response units (HRUs): 17 types of pervious areas (PERLNDs) established from combinations of surficial geology, land-use categories, and the distribution of public water and public sewer systems, and two types of impervious areas (IMPLNDs). Wetlands were combined with open water and simulated as stream reaches that receive runoff from surrounding pervious and impervious areas. This approach was taken to achieve greater flexibility in calibrating evapotranspiration losses from wetlands during the growing season. The basin was segmented into 50 reaches (RCHRES) to represent junctions at tributaries, major lakes and reservoirs, and drainage areas to streamflow-gaging stations. Climatological, streamflow, water-withdrawal, and wastewater-return data were collected during the study to develop the HSPF model. Climatological data collected at Worcester Regional Airport in Worcester, Massachusetts and T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, Rhode Island, were used for model calibration. A total of 15 streamflow-gaging stations were used in the calibration. Streamflow was measured at eight continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey cooperative streamflow-gaging network, and at seven partial-record stations installed in 2004 for this study. Because the model-calibration period preceded data collection at the partial-record stations, a continuous streamflow record was estimated at these stations by correlation with flows at nearby continuous-record stations to provide additional streamflow data for model calibration. Water-use information was compiled for 1996-2001 and included municipal and commercial/industrial withdrawals, private residential withdrawals, golf-course withdrawals, municipal wastewater-return flows, and on-site septic effluent return flows. Streamflow depletion was computed for all time-varying ground-water withdrawals prior to simulation. Water-use data were included in the model to represent the net effect of water use on simulated hydrographs. Consequently, the calibrated values of the hydrologic parameters better represent the hydrologic response of the basin to precipitation. The model was calibrated for 1997-2001 to coincide with the land-use and water-use data compiled for the study. Four long-term stations (Nipmuc River near Harrisville, Rhode Island; Quinsigamond River at North Grafton, Massachusetts; Branch River at Forestdale, Rhode Island; and Blackstone River at Woonsocket, Rhode Island) that monitor flow at 3.3, 5.4, 19, and 88 percent of the total basin area, respectively, provided the primary model-calibration points. Hydrographs, scatter plots, and flow-duration curves of observed and simulated discharges, along with various model-fit statistics, indicated that the model performed well over a range of hydrologic conditions. For example, the total runoff volume for the calibration period simulated at the Nipmuc River near Harrisville, Rhode Island; Quinsigamond River at North Grafton, Massachusetts; Branch River at Forestdale, Rhode Island; and Blackstone River at Woonsocket, Rhode Island streamflow-gaging stations differed from the observed runoff v

Development of a Tool for an Efficient Calibration of CORSIM Models

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-08-01

This project proposes a Memetic Algorithm (MA) for the calibration of microscopic traffic flow simulation models. The proposed MA includes a combination of genetic and simulated annealing algorithms. The genetic algorithm performs the exploration of ...

Improving transferability strategies for debris flow susceptibility assessment: Application to the Saponara and Itala catchments (Messina, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cama, M.; Lombardo, L.; Conoscenti, C.; Rotigliano, E.

2017-07-01

Debris flows can be described as rapid gravity-induced mass movements controlled by topography that are usually triggered as a consequence of storm rainfalls. One of the problems when dealing with debris flow recognition is that the eroded surface is usually very shallow and it can be masked by vegetation or fast weathering as early as one-two years after a landslide has occurred. For this reason, even areas that are highly susceptible to debris flow might suffer of a lack of reliable landslide inventories. However, these inventories are necessary for susceptibility assessment. Model transferability, which is based on calibrating a susceptibility model in a training area in order to predict the distribution of debris flows in a target area, might provide an efficient solution to dealing with this limit. However, when applying a transferability procedure, a key point is the optimal selection of the predictors to be included for calibrating the model in the source area. In this paper, the issue of optimal factor selection is analysed by comparing the predictive performances obtained following three different factor selection criteria. The study includes: i) a test of the similarity between the source and the target areas; ii) the calibration of the susceptibility model in the (training) source area, using different criteria for the selection of the predictors; iii) the validation of the models, both at the source (self-validation, through random partition) and at the target (transferring, through spatial partition) areas. The debris flow susceptibility is evaluated here using binary logistic regression through a R-scripted based procedure. Two separate study areas were selected in the Messina province (southern Italy) in its Ionian (Itala catchment) and Tyrrhenian sides (Saponara catchment), each hit by a severe debris flow event (in 2009 and 2011, respectively). The investigation attested that the best fitting model in the calibration areas resulted poorly performing in predicting the landslides of the test target area. At the same time, the susceptibility models calibrated with an optimal set of covariates in the source area allowed us to produce a robust and accurate prediction image for the debris flows activated in the Saponara catchment in 2011, exploiting only the data known after the Itala-2009 event.

A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the St. Clair-Detroit River waterway in the Great Lakes basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.; Koschik, John A.

2002-01-01

The St. Clair–Detroit River Waterway connects Lake Huron with Lake Erie in the Great Lakes basin to form part of the international boundary between the United States and Canada. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model is developed to compute flow velocities and water levels as part of a source-water assessment of public water intakes. The model, which uses the generalized finite-element code RMA2, discretizes the waterway into a mesh formed by 13,783 quadratic elements defined by 42,936 nodes. Seven steadystate scenarios are used to calibrate the model by adjusting parameters associated with channel roughness in 25 material zones in sub-areas of the waterway. An inverse modeling code is used to systematically adjust model parameters and to determine their associated uncertainty by use of nonlinear regression. Calibration results show close agreement between simulated and expected flows in major channels and water levels at gaging stations. Sensitivity analyses describe the amount of information available to estimate individual model parameters, and quantify the utility of flow measurements at selected cross sections and water-level measurements at gaging stations. Further data collection, model calibration analysis, and grid refinements are planned to assess and enhance two-dimensional flow simulation capabilities describing the horizontal flow distributions in St. Clair and Detroit Rivers and circulation patterns in Lake St. Clair.

An extended CFD model to predict the pumping curve in low pressure plasma etch chamber

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ning; Wu, Yuanhao; Han, Wenbin; Pan, Shaowu

2014-12-01

Continuum based CFD model is extended with slip wall approximation and rarefaction effect on viscosity, in an attempt to predict the pumping flow characteristics in low pressure plasma etch chambers. The flow regime inside the chamber ranges from slip wall (Kn ˜ 0.01), and up to free molecular (Kn = 10). Momentum accommodation coefficient and parameters for Kn-modified viscosity are first calibrated against one set of measured pumping curve. Then the validity of this calibrated CFD models are demonstrated in comparison with additional pumping curves measured in chambers of different geometry configurations. More detailed comparison against DSMC model for flow conductance over slits with contraction and expansion sections is also discussed.

A Fast Surrogate-facilitated Data-driven Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Quantification of a Regional Groundwater Flow Model with Structural Error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, T.; Valocchi, A. J.; Ye, M.; Liang, F.

2016-12-01

Due to simplification and/or misrepresentation of the real aquifer system, numerical groundwater flow and solute transport models are usually subject to model structural error. During model calibration, the hydrogeological parameters may be overly adjusted to compensate for unknown structural error. This may result in biased predictions when models are used to forecast aquifer response to new forcing. In this study, we extend a fully Bayesian method [Xu and Valocchi, 2015] to calibrate a real-world, regional groundwater flow model. The method uses a data-driven error model to describe model structural error and jointly infers model parameters and structural error. In this study, Bayesian inference is facilitated using high performance computing and fast surrogate models. The surrogate models are constructed using machine learning techniques to emulate the response simulated by the computationally expensive groundwater model. We demonstrate in the real-world case study that explicitly accounting for model structural error yields parameter posterior distributions that are substantially different from those derived by the classical Bayesian calibration that does not account for model structural error. In addition, the Bayesian with error model method gives significantly more accurate prediction along with reasonable credible intervals.

A coupled metabolic-hydraulic model and calibration scheme for estimating of whole-river metabolism during dynamic flow conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payn, Robert A.; Hall, Robert O Jr.; Kennedy, Theodore A.; Poole, Geoff C; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Conventional methods for estimating whole-stream metabolic rates from measured dissolved oxygen dynamics do not account for the variation in solute transport times created by dynamic flow conditions. Changes in flow at hourly time scales are common downstream of hydroelectric dams (i.e. hydropeaking), and hydrologic limitations of conventional metabolic models have resulted in a poor understanding of the controls on biological production in these highly managed river ecosystems. To overcome these limitations, we coupled a two-station metabolic model of dissolved oxygen dynamics with a hydrologic river routing model. We designed calibration and parameter estimation tools to infer values for hydrologic and metabolic parameters based on time series of water quality data, achieving the ultimate goal of estimating whole-river gross primary production and ecosystem respiration during dynamic flow conditions. Our case study data for model design and calibration were collected in the tailwater of Glen Canyon Dam (Arizona, USA), a large hydropower facility where the mean discharge was 325 m3 s 1 and the average daily coefficient of variation of flow was 0.17 (i.e. the hydropeaking index averaged from 2006 to 2016). We demonstrate the coupled model’s conceptual consistency with conventional models during steady flow conditions, and illustrate the potential bias in metabolism estimates with conventional models during unsteady flow conditions. This effort contributes an approach to solute transport modeling and parameter estimation that allows study of whole-ecosystem metabolic regimes across a more diverse range of hydrologic conditions commonly encountered in streams and rivers.

Calibration of numerical models for small debris flows in Yosemite Valley, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bertolo, P.; Wieczorek, G.F.

2005-01-01

This study compares documented debris flow runout distances with numerical simulations in the Yosemite Valley of California, USA, where about 15% of historical events of slope instability can be classified as debris flows and debris slides (Wieczorek and Snyder, 2004). To model debris flows in the Yosemite Valley, we selected six streams with evidence of historical debris flows; three of the debris flow deposits have single channels, and the other three split their pattern in the fan area into two or more channels. From field observations all of the debris flows involved coarse material, with only very small clay content. We applied the one dimensional DAN (Dynamic ANalysis) model (Hungr, 1995) and the two-dimensional FLO2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993) to predict and compare the runout distance and the velocity of the debris flows observed in the study area. As a first step, we calibrated the parameters for the two softwares through the back analysis of three debris- flows channels using a trial-and-error procedure starting with values suggested in the literature. In the second step we applied the selected values to the other channels, in order to evaluate their predictive capabilities. After parameter calibration using three debris flows we obtained results similar to field observations We also obtained a good agreement between the two models for velocities. Both models are strongly influenced by topography: we used the 30 m cell size DTM available for the study area, that is probably not accurate enough for a highly detailed analysis, but it can be sufficient for a first screening. European Geosciences Union ?? 2005 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Effects of linking a soil-water-balance model with a groundwater-flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanton, Jennifer S.; Ryter, Derek W.; Peterson, Steven M.

2013-01-01

A previously published regional groundwater-flow model in north-central Nebraska was sequentially linked with the recently developed soil-water-balance (SWB) model to analyze effects to groundwater-flow model parameters and calibration results. The linked models provided a more detailed spatial and temporal distribution of simulated recharge based on hydrologic processes, improvement of simulated groundwater-level changes and base flows at specific sites in agricultural areas, and a physically based assessment of the relative magnitude of recharge for grassland, nonirrigated cropland, and irrigated cropland areas. Root-mean-squared (RMS) differences between the simulated and estimated or measured target values for the previously published model and linked models were relatively similar and did not improve for all types of calibration targets. However, without any adjustment to the SWB-generated recharge, the RMS difference between simulated and estimated base-flow target values for the groundwater-flow model was slightly smaller than for the previously published model, possibly indicating that the volume of recharge simulated by the SWB code was closer to actual hydrogeologic conditions than the previously published model provided. Groundwater-level and base-flow hydrographs showed that temporal patterns of simulated groundwater levels and base flows were more accurate for the linked models than for the previously published model at several sites, particularly in agricultural areas.

Hierarchical calibration and validation of computational fluid dynamics models for solid sorbent-based carbon capture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lai, Canhai; Xu, Zhijie; Pan, Wenxiao

2016-01-01

To quantify the predictive confidence of a solid sorbent-based carbon capture design, a hierarchical validation methodology—consisting of basic unit problems with increasing physical complexity coupled with filtered model-based geometric upscaling has been developed and implemented. This paper describes the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) multi-phase reactive flow simulations and the associated data flows among different unit problems performed within the said hierarchical validation approach. The bench-top experiments used in this calibration and validation effort were carefully designed to follow the desired simple-to-complex unit problem hierarchy, with corresponding data acquisition to support model parameters calibrations at each unit problem level. A Bayesianmore » calibration procedure is employed and the posterior model parameter distributions obtained at one unit-problem level are used as prior distributions for the same parameters in the next-tier simulations. Overall, the results have demonstrated that the multiphase reactive flow models within MFIX can be used to capture the bed pressure, temperature, CO2 capture capacity, and kinetics with quantitative accuracy. The CFD modeling methodology and associated uncertainty quantification techniques presented herein offer a solid framework for estimating the predictive confidence in the virtual scale up of a larger carbon capture device.« less

Development of a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the shallow aquifer system of Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Masterson, John P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Gesch, Dean B.; Carlson, Carl S.

2013-01-01

A three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed for Assateague Island in eastern Maryland and Virginia to simulate both groundwater flow and solute (salt) transport to evaluate the groundwater system response to sea-level rise. The model was constructed using geologic and spatial information to represent the island geometry, boundaries, and physical properties and was calibrated using an inverse modeling parameter-estimation technique. An initial transient solute-transport simulation was used to establish the freshwater-saltwater boundary for a final calibrated steady-state model of groundwater flow. This model was developed as part of an ongoing investigation by the U.S. Geological Survey Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program to improve capabilities for predicting potential climate-change effects and provide the necessary tools for adaptation and mitigation of potentially adverse impacts.

K-ε Turbulence Model Parameter Estimates Using an Approximate Self-similar Jet-in-Crossflow Solution

DOE PAGES

DeChant, Lawrence; Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; ...

2017-06-09

The k-ε turbulence model has been described as perhaps “the most widely used complete turbulence model.” This family of heuristic Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closures is supported by a suite of model parameters that have been estimated by demanding the satisfaction of well-established canonical flows such as homogeneous shear flow, log-law behavior, etc. While this procedure does yield a set of so-called nominal parameters, it is abundantly clear that they do not provide a universally satisfactory turbulence model that is capable of simulating complex flows. Recent work on the Bayesian calibration of the k-ε model using jet-in-crossflow wind tunnelmore » data has yielded parameter estimates that are far more predictive than nominal parameter values. In this paper, we develop a self-similar asymptotic solution for axisymmetric jet-in-crossflow interactions and derive analytical estimates of the parameters that were inferred using Bayesian calibration. The self-similar method utilizes a near field approach to estimate the turbulence model parameters while retaining the classical far-field scaling to model flow field quantities. Our parameter values are seen to be far more predictive than the nominal values, as checked using RANS simulations and experimental measurements. They are also closer to the Bayesian estimates than the nominal parameters. A traditional simplified jet trajectory model is explicitly related to the turbulence model parameters and is shown to yield good agreement with measurement when utilizing the analytical derived turbulence model coefficients. Finally, the close agreement between the turbulence model coefficients obtained via Bayesian calibration and the analytically estimated coefficients derived in this paper is consistent with the contention that the Bayesian calibration approach is firmly rooted in the underlying physical description.« less

The combined use of MODFLOW and precipitation-runoff modeling to simulate groundwater flow in a diffuse-pollution prone watershed.

PubMed

Elçi, A; Karadaş, D; Fistikoğlu, O

2010-01-01

A numerical modeling case study of groundwater flow in a diffuse pollution prone area is presented. The study area is located within the metropolitan borders of the city of Izmir, Turkey. This groundwater flow model was unconventional in the application since the groundwater recharge parameter in the model was estimated using a lumped, transient water-budget based precipitation-runoff model that was executed independent of the groundwater flow model. The recharge rate obtained from the calibrated precipitation-runoff model was used as input to the groundwater flow model, which was eventually calibrated to measured water table elevations. Overall, the flow model results were consistent with field observations and model statistics were satisfactory. Water budget results of the model revealed that groundwater recharge comprised about 20% of the total water input for the entire study area. Recharge was the second largest component in the budget after leakage from streams into the subsurface. It was concluded that the modeling results can be further used as input for contaminant transport modeling studies in order to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources of the study area to diffuse pollution.

Three-dimensional numerical model of ground-water flow in northern Utah Valley, Utah County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gardner, Philip M.

2009-01-01

A three-dimensional, finite-difference, numerical model was developed to simulate ground-water flow in northern Utah Valley, Utah. The model includes expanded areal boundaries as compared to a previous ground-water flow model of the valley and incorporates more than 20 years of additional hydrologic data. The model boundary was generally expanded to include the bedrock in the surrounding mountain block as far as the surface-water divide. New wells have been drilled in basin-fill deposits near the consolidated-rock boundary. Simulating the hydrologic conditions within the bedrock allows for improved simulation of the effect of withdrawal from these wells. The inclusion of bedrock also allowed for the use of a recharge model that provided an alternative method for spatially distributing areal recharge over the mountains.The model was calibrated to steady- and transient-state conditions. The steady-state simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data that represented average conditions for 1947. The transient-state simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data collected from 1947 to 2004. Areally, the model grid is 79 rows by 70 columns, with variable cell size. Cells throughout most of the model domain represent 0.3 mile on each side. The largest cells are rectangular with dimensions of about 0.3 by 0.6 mile. The largest cells represent the mountain block on the eastern edge of the model domain where the least hydrologic data are available. Vertically, the aquifer system is divided into 4 layers which incorporate 11 hydrogeologic units. The model simulates recharge to the ground-water flow system as (1) infiltration of precipitation over the mountain block, (2) infiltration of precipitation over the valley floor, (3) infiltration of unconsumed irrigation water from fields, lawns, and gardens, (4) seepage from streams and canals, and (5) subsurface inflow from Cedar Valley. Discharge of ground water is simulated by the model to (1) flowing and pumping wells, (2) drains and springs, (3) evapotranspiration, (4) Utah Lake, (5) the Jordan River and mountain streams, and (6) Salt Lake Valley by subsurface outflow through the Jordan Narrows.During steady-state calibration, variables were adjusted within probable ranges to minimize differences between model-computed and measured water levels as well as between model-computed and independently estimated flows that include: recharge by seepage from individual streams and canals, discharge by seepage to individual streams and the Jordan River, discharge to Utah Lake, discharge to drains and springs, discharge by evapotranspiration, and subsurface flows into and out of northern Utah Valley from Cedar Valley and to Salt Lake Valley, respectively. The transient-state simulation was calibrated to measured water levels and water-level changes with consideration given to annual changes in the flows listed above.

Estimation of inhalation flow profile using audio-based methods to assess inhaler medication adherence.

PubMed

Taylor, Terence E; Lacalle Muls, Helena; Costello, Richard W; Reilly, Richard B

2018-01-01

Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients are required to inhale forcefully and deeply to receive medication when using a dry powder inhaler (DPI). There is a clinical need to objectively monitor the inhalation flow profile of DPIs in order to remotely monitor patient inhalation technique. Audio-based methods have been previously employed to accurately estimate flow parameters such as the peak inspiratory flow rate of inhalations, however, these methods required multiple calibration inhalation audio recordings. In this study, an audio-based method is presented that accurately estimates inhalation flow profile using only one calibration inhalation audio recording. Twenty healthy participants were asked to perform 15 inhalations through a placebo Ellipta™ DPI at a range of inspiratory flow rates. Inhalation flow signals were recorded using a pneumotachograph spirometer while inhalation audio signals were recorded simultaneously using the Inhaler Compliance Assessment device attached to the inhaler. The acoustic (amplitude) envelope was estimated from each inhalation audio signal. Using only one recording, linear and power law regression models were employed to determine which model best described the relationship between the inhalation acoustic envelope and flow signal. Each model was then employed to estimate the flow signals of the remaining 14 inhalation audio recordings. This process repeated until each of the 15 recordings were employed to calibrate single models while testing on the remaining 14 recordings. It was observed that power law models generated the highest average flow estimation accuracy across all participants (90.89±0.9% for power law models and 76.63±2.38% for linear models). The method also generated sufficient accuracy in estimating inhalation parameters such as peak inspiratory flow rate and inspiratory capacity within the presence of noise. Estimating inhaler inhalation flow profiles using audio based methods may be clinically beneficial for inhaler technique training and the remote monitoring of patient adherence.

Estimation of inhalation flow profile using audio-based methods to assess inhaler medication adherence

PubMed Central

Lacalle Muls, Helena; Costello, Richard W.; Reilly, Richard B.

2018-01-01

Asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients are required to inhale forcefully and deeply to receive medication when using a dry powder inhaler (DPI). There is a clinical need to objectively monitor the inhalation flow profile of DPIs in order to remotely monitor patient inhalation technique. Audio-based methods have been previously employed to accurately estimate flow parameters such as the peak inspiratory flow rate of inhalations, however, these methods required multiple calibration inhalation audio recordings. In this study, an audio-based method is presented that accurately estimates inhalation flow profile using only one calibration inhalation audio recording. Twenty healthy participants were asked to perform 15 inhalations through a placebo Ellipta™ DPI at a range of inspiratory flow rates. Inhalation flow signals were recorded using a pneumotachograph spirometer while inhalation audio signals were recorded simultaneously using the Inhaler Compliance Assessment device attached to the inhaler. The acoustic (amplitude) envelope was estimated from each inhalation audio signal. Using only one recording, linear and power law regression models were employed to determine which model best described the relationship between the inhalation acoustic envelope and flow signal. Each model was then employed to estimate the flow signals of the remaining 14 inhalation audio recordings. This process repeated until each of the 15 recordings were employed to calibrate single models while testing on the remaining 14 recordings. It was observed that power law models generated the highest average flow estimation accuracy across all participants (90.89±0.9% for power law models and 76.63±2.38% for linear models). The method also generated sufficient accuracy in estimating inhalation parameters such as peak inspiratory flow rate and inspiratory capacity within the presence of noise. Estimating inhaler inhalation flow profiles using audio based methods may be clinically beneficial for inhaler technique training and the remote monitoring of patient adherence. PMID:29346430

CFD Simulations of the IHF Arc-Jet Flow: Compression-Pad/Separation Bolt Wedge Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gokcen, Tahir; Skokova, Kristina A.

2017-01-01

This paper reports computational analyses in support of two wedge tests in a high enthalpy arc-jet facility at NASA Ames Research Center. These tests were conducted using two different wedge models, each placed in a free jet downstream of a corresponding different conical nozzle in the Ames 60-MW Interaction Heating Facility. Panel test articles included a metallic separation bolt imbedded in the compression-pad and heat shield materials, resulting in a circular protuberance over a flat plate. As part of the test calibration runs, surface pressure and heat flux measurements on water-cooled calibration plates integrated with the wedge models were also obtained. Surface heating distributions on the test articles as well as arc-jet test environment parameters for each test configuration are obtained through computational fluid dynamics simulations, consistent with the facility and calibration measurements. The present analysis comprises simulations of the non-equilibrium flow field in the facility nozzle, test box, and flow field over test articles, and comparisons with the measured calibration data.

Adequacy of satellite derived rainfall data for stream flow modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artan, G.; Gadain, Hussein; Smith, Jodie; Asante, Kwasi; Bandaragoda, C.J.; Verdin, J.P.

2007-01-01

Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007.

Prediction of hydrographs and flow-duration curves in almost ungauged catchments: Which runoff measurements are most informative for model calibration?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pool, Sandra; Viviroli, Daniel; Seibert, Jan

2017-11-01

Applications of runoff models usually rely on long and continuous runoff time series for model calibration. However, many catchments around the world are ungauged and estimating runoff for these catchments is challenging. One approach is to perform a few runoff measurements in a previously fully ungauged catchment and to constrain a runoff model by these measurements. In this study we investigated the value of such individual runoff measurements when taken at strategic points in time for applying a bucket-type runoff model (HBV) in ungauged catchments. Based on the assumption that a limited number of runoff measurements can be taken, we sought the optimal sampling strategy (i.e. when to measure the streamflow) to obtain the most informative data for constraining the runoff model. We used twenty gauged catchments across the eastern US, made the assumption that these catchments were ungauged, and applied different runoff sampling strategies. All tested strategies consisted of twelve runoff measurements within one year and ranged from simply using monthly flow maxima to a more complex selection of observation times. In each case the twelve runoff measurements were used to select 100 best parameter sets using a Monte Carlo calibration approach. Runoff simulations using these 'informed' parameter sets were then evaluated for an independent validation period in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of the hydrograph and the mean absolute relative error of the flow-duration curve. Model performance measures were normalized by relating them to an upper and a lower benchmark representing a well-informed and an uninformed model calibration. The hydrographs were best simulated with strategies including high runoff magnitudes as opposed to the flow-duration curves that were generally better estimated with strategies that captured low and mean flows. The choice of a sampling strategy covering the full range of runoff magnitudes enabled hydrograph and flow-duration curve simulations close to a well-informed model calibration. The differences among such strategies covering the full range of runoff magnitudes were small indicating that the exact choice of a strategy might be less crucial. Our study corroborates the information value of a small number of strategically selected runoff measurements for simulating runoff with a bucket-type runoff model in almost ungauged catchments.

Calibration of a distributed routing rainfall-runoff model at four urban sites near Miami, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, W. Harry; Miller, Jeffrey E.

1980-01-01

Urban stormwater data from four Miami, Fla. catchments were collected and compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey and were used for testing the applicability of deterministic modeling for characterizing stormwater flows from small land-use areas. A description of model calibration and verification is presented for: (1) A 40.8 acre single-family residential area, (2) a 58.3-acre highway area, (3) a 20.4-acre commercial area, and (4) a 14.7-acre multifamily residential area. Rainfall-runoff data for 80, 108, 114, and 52 storms at sites, 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively, were collected, analyzed, and stored on direct-access files. Rainfall and runoff data for these storms (at 1-minute time intervals) were used in flow-modeling simulation analyses. A distributed routing Geological Survey rainfall-runoff model was used to determine rainfall excess and route overland and channel flows at each site. Optimization of soil-moisture- accounting and infiltration parameters was performed during the calibration phases. The results of this study showed that, with qualifications, an acceptable verification of the Geological Survey model can be achieved. (Kosco-USGS)

Validation and Calibration of Nuclear Thermal Hydraulics Multiscale Multiphysics Models - Subcooled Flow Boiling Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anh Bui; Nam Dinh; Brian Williams

In addition to validation data plan, development of advanced techniques for calibration and validation of complex multiscale, multiphysics nuclear reactor simulation codes are a main objective of the CASL VUQ plan. Advanced modeling of LWR systems normally involves a range of physico-chemical models describing multiple interacting phenomena, such as thermal hydraulics, reactor physics, coolant chemistry, etc., which occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. To a large extent, the accuracy of (and uncertainty in) overall model predictions is determined by the correctness of various sub-models, which are not conservation-laws based, but empirically derived from measurement data. Suchmore » sub-models normally require extensive calibration before the models can be applied to analysis of real reactor problems. This work demonstrates a case study of calibration of a common model of subcooled flow boiling, which is an important multiscale, multiphysics phenomenon in LWR thermal hydraulics. The calibration process is based on a new strategy of model-data integration, in which, all sub-models are simultaneously analyzed and calibrated using multiple sets of data of different types. Specifically, both data on large-scale distributions of void fraction and fluid temperature and data on small-scale physics of wall evaporation were simultaneously used in this work’s calibration. In a departure from traditional (or common-sense) practice of tuning/calibrating complex models, a modern calibration technique based on statistical modeling and Bayesian inference was employed, which allowed simultaneous calibration of multiple sub-models (and related parameters) using different datasets. Quality of data (relevancy, scalability, and uncertainty) could be taken into consideration in the calibration process. This work presents a step forward in the development and realization of the “CIPS Validation Data Plan” at the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs to enable quantitative assessment of the CASL modeling of Crud-Induced Power Shift (CIPS) phenomenon, in particular, and the CASL advanced predictive capabilities, in general. This report is prepared for the Department of Energy’s Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs program’s VUQ Focus Area.« less

Using noble gas tracers to constrain a groundwater flow model with recharge elevations: A novel approach for mountainous terrain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Jessica M.; Gleeson, Tom; Manning, Andrew H.; Mayer, K. Ulrich

2015-01-01

Environmental tracers provide information on groundwater age, recharge conditions, and flow processes which can be helpful for evaluating groundwater sustainability and vulnerability. Dissolved noble gas data have proven particularly useful in mountainous terrain because they can be used to determine recharge elevation. However, tracer-derived recharge elevations have not been utilized as calibration targets for numerical groundwater flow models. Herein, we constrain and calibrate a regional groundwater flow model with noble-gas-derived recharge elevations for the first time. Tritium and noble gas tracer results improved the site conceptual model by identifying a previously uncertain contribution of mountain block recharge from the Coast Mountains to an alluvial coastal aquifer in humid southwestern British Columbia. The revised conceptual model was integrated into a three-dimensional numerical groundwater flow model and calibrated to hydraulic head data in addition to recharge elevations estimated from noble gas recharge temperatures. Recharge elevations proved to be imperative for constraining hydraulic conductivity, recharge location, and bedrock geometry, and thus minimizing model nonuniqueness. Results indicate that 45% of recharge to the aquifer is mountain block recharge. A similar match between measured and modeled heads was achieved in a second numerical model that excludes the mountain block (no mountain block recharge), demonstrating that hydraulic head data alone are incapable of quantifying mountain block recharge. This result has significant implications for understanding and managing source water protection in recharge areas, potential effects of climate change, the overall water budget, and ultimately ensuring groundwater sustainability.

Inverse modeling of hydraulic tests in fractured crystalline rock based on a transition probability geostatistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blessent, Daniela; Therrien, René; Lemieux, Jean-Michel

2011-12-01

This paper presents numerical simulations of a series of hydraulic interference tests conducted in crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto (Finland), a potential site for the disposal of the Finnish high-level nuclear waste. The tests are in a block of crystalline bedrock of about 0.03 km3 that contains low-transmissivity fractures. Fracture density, orientation, and fracture transmissivity are estimated from Posiva Flow Log (PFL) measurements in boreholes drilled in the rock block. On the basis of those data, a geostatistical approach relying on a transitional probability and Markov chain models is used to define a conceptual model based on stochastic fractured rock facies. Four facies are defined, from sparsely fractured bedrock to highly fractured bedrock. Using this conceptual model, three-dimensional groundwater flow is then simulated to reproduce interference pumping tests in either open or packed-off boreholes. Hydraulic conductivities of the fracture facies are estimated through automatic calibration using either hydraulic heads or both hydraulic heads and PFL flow rates as targets for calibration. The latter option produces a narrower confidence interval for the calibrated hydraulic conductivities, therefore reducing the associated uncertainty and demonstrating the usefulness of the measured PFL flow rates. Furthermore, the stochastic facies conceptual model is a suitable alternative to discrete fracture network models to simulate fluid flow in fractured geological media.

Experimental Investigation of Nozzle/Plume Aerodynamics at Hypersonic Speeds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heinemann, K.; Bogdanoff, David W.; Cambier, Jean-Luc

1992-01-01

The work performed by D. W. Bogdanoff and J.-L. Cambier during the period of 1 Feb. - 31 Oct. 1992 is presented. The following topics are discussed: (1) improvement in the operation of the facility; (2) the wedge model; (3) calibration of the new test section; (4) combustor model; (5) hydrogen fuel system for combustor model; (6) three inch calibration/development tunnel; (7) shock tunnel unsteady flow; (8) pulse detonation wave engine; (9) DCAF flow simulation; (10) high temperature shock layer simulation; and (11) the one dimensional Godunov CFD code.

Parameterisation of rainfall-runoff models for forecasting low and average flows, I: Conceptual modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castiglioni, S.; Toth, E.

2009-04-01

In the calibration procedure of continuously-simulating models, the hydrologist has to choose which part of the observed hydrograph is most important to fit, either implicitly, through the visual agreement in manual calibration, or explicitly, through the choice of the objective function(s). Changing the objective functions it is in fact possible to emphasise different kind of errors, giving them more weight in the calibration phase. The objective functions used for calibrating hydrological models are generally of the quadratic type (mean squared error, correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, etc) and are therefore oversensitive to high and extreme error values, that typically correspond to high and extreme streamflow values. This is appropriate when, like in the majority of streamflow forecasting applications, the focus is on the ability to reproduce potentially dangerous flood events; on the contrary, if the aim of the modelling is the reproduction of low and average flows, as it is the case in water resource management problems, this may result in a deterioration of the forecasting performance. This contribution presents the results of a series of automatic calibration experiments of a continuously-simulating rainfall-runoff model applied over several real-world case-studies, where the objective function is chosen so to highlight the fit of average and low flows. In this work a simple conceptual model will be used, of the lumped type, with a relatively low number of parameters to be calibrated. The experiments will be carried out for a set of case-study watersheds in Central Italy, covering an extremely wide range of geo-morphologic conditions and for whom at least five years of contemporary daily series of streamflow, precipitation and evapotranspiration estimates are available. Different objective functions will be tested in calibration and the results will be compared, over validation data, against those obtained with traditional squared functions. A companion work presents the results, over the same case-study watersheds and observation periods, of a system-theoretic model, again calibrated for reproducing average and low streamflows.

Calibration and validation of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the Ohio River, Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, C.R.; Mueller, D.S.

2001-01-01

The quantification of current patterns is an essential component of a Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) application in a riverine environment. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provided a field validated two-dimensional Resource Management Associates-2 (RMA-2) hydrodynamic model capable of quantifying the steady-flowpatterns in the Ohio River extending from river mile 590 to 630 for the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) water-quality modeling efforts on that reach. Because of the hydrodynamic complexities induced by McAlpine Locks and Dam (Ohio River mile 607), the model was split into two segments: an upstream reach, which extended from the dam upstream to the upper terminus of the study reach at Ohio River mile 590; and a downstream reach, which extended from the dam downstream to a lower terminus at Ohio River mile 636. The model was calibrated to a low-flow hydraulic survey (approximately 35,000 cubic feet per second (ft3/s)) and verified with data collected during a high-flow survey (approximately 390,000 ft3/s). The model calibration and validation process included matching water-surface elevations at 10 locations and velocity profiles at 30 cross sections throughout the study reach. Based on the calibration and validation results, the model is a representative simulation of the Ohio River steady-flow patterns below discharges of approximately 400,000 ft3/s.

Numerical groundwater-flow modeling to evaluate potential effects of pumping and recharge: implications for sustainable groundwater management in the Mahanadi delta region, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Sasmita; Jha, Madan K.

2017-12-01

Process-based groundwater models are useful to understand complex aquifer systems and make predictions about their response to hydrological changes. A conceptual model for evaluating responses to environmental changes is presented, considering the hydrogeologic framework, flow processes, aquifer hydraulic properties, boundary conditions, and sources and sinks of the groundwater system. Based on this conceptual model, a quasi-three-dimensional transient groundwater flow model was designed using MODFLOW to simulate the groundwater system of Mahanadi River delta, eastern India. The model was constructed in the context of an upper unconfined aquifer and lower confined aquifer, separated by an aquitard. Hydraulic heads of 13 shallow wells and 11 deep wells were used to calibrate transient groundwater conditions during 1997-2006, followed by validation (2007-2011). The aquifer and aquitard hydraulic properties were obtained by pumping tests and were calibrated along with the rainfall recharge. The statistical and graphical performance indicators suggested a reasonably good simulation of groundwater flow over the study area. Sensitivity analysis revealed that groundwater level is most sensitive to the hydraulic conductivities of both the aquifers, followed by vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining layer. The calibrated model was then employed to explore groundwater-flow dynamics in response to changes in pumping and recharge conditions. The simulation results indicate that pumping has a substantial effect on the confined aquifer flow regime as compared to the unconfined aquifer. The results and insights from this study have important implications for other regional groundwater modeling studies, especially in multi-layered aquifer systems.

Transient Inverse Calibration of Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts - 1943 to 1996

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Wurstner, Signe K.

2001-05-31

This report describes a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of predictions made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater flow and transport model. The focus is on characterizing major uncertainties in the current model. PNNL will develop and implement a calibration approach and methodology that can be used to evaluate alternative conceptual models of the Hanford aquifer system. The calibration process will involve a three-dimensional transient inverse calibration of each numerical model to historical observations of hydraulic and water quality impacts to the unconfined aquifer system from Hanford operations since the mid-1940s.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

Uncertainty quantification in LES of channel flow

DOE PAGES

Safta, Cosmin; Blaylock, Myra; Templeton, Jeremy; ...

2016-07-12

Here, in this paper, we present a Bayesian framework for estimating joint densities for large eddy simulation (LES) sub-grid scale model parameters based on canonical forced isotropic turbulence direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. The framework accounts for noise in the independent variables, and we present alternative formulations for accounting for discrepancies between model and data. To generate probability densities for flow characteristics, posterior densities for sub-grid scale model parameters are propagated forward through LES of channel flow and compared with DNS data. Synthesis of the calibration and prediction results demonstrates that model parameters have an explicit filter width dependence andmore » are highly correlated. Discrepancies between DNS and calibrated LES results point to additional model form inadequacies that need to be accounted for.« less

Assessment of Debris Flow Hazards, North Mountain, Phoenix, AZ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reavis, K. J.; Wasklewicz, T. A.

2014-12-01

Urban sprawl in many western U.S. cities has expanded development onto alluvial fans. In the case of metropolitan Phoenix, AZ (MPA), urban sprawl has led to an exponential outward growth into surrounding mountainous areas and onto alluvial fans. Building on alluvial fans places humans at greater risk to flooding and debris flow hazards. Recent research has shown debris flows often supply large quantities of material to many alluvial fans in MPA. However, the risk of debris flows to built environments is relatively unknown. We use a 2D debris flow modeling approach, aided by high-resolution airborne LiDAR and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) topographic data, to examine debris flow behavior in a densely populated portion of the MPA to assess the risk and vulnerability of debris flow damage to the built infrastructure. A calibrated 2D debris flow model is developed for a "known" recent debris flow at an undeveloped site in MPA. The calibrated model and two other model scenarios are applied to a populated area with historical evidence of debris flow activity. Results from the modeled scenarios show evidence of debris flow damage to houses built on the alluvial fan. Debris flow inundation is also evident on streets on the fan. We use housing values and building damage to estimate the costs assocaited with various modeled debris flow scenarios.

Can we calibrate simultaneously groundwater recharge and aquifer hydrodynamic parameters ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassane Maina, Fadji; Ackerer, Philippe; Bildstein, Olivier

2017-04-01

By groundwater model calibration, we consider here fitting the measured piezometric heads by estimating the hydrodynamic parameters (storage term and hydraulic conductivity) and the recharge. It is traditionally recommended to avoid simultaneous calibration of groundwater recharge and flow parameters because of correlation between recharge and the flow parameters. From a physical point of view, little recharge associated with low hydraulic conductivity can provide very similar piezometric changes than higher recharge and higher hydraulic conductivity. If this correlation is true under steady state conditions, we assume that this correlation is much weaker under transient conditions because recharge varies in time and the parameters do not. Moreover, the recharge is negligible during summer time for many climatic conditions due to reduced precipitation, increased evaporation and transpiration by vegetation cover. We analyze our hypothesis through global sensitivity analysis (GSA) in conjunction with the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) methodology. We perform GSA by calculating the Sobol indices, which provide a variance-based 'measure' of the effects of uncertain parameters (storage and hydraulic conductivity) and recharge on the piezometric heads computed by the flow model. The choice of PCE has the following two benefits: (i) it provides the global sensitivity indices in a straightforward manner, and (ii) PCE can serve as a surrogate model for the calibration of parameters. The coefficients of the PCE are computed by probabilistic collocation. We perform the GSA on simplified real conditions coming from an already built groundwater model dedicated to a subdomain of the Upper-Rhine aquifer (geometry, boundary conditions, climatic data). GSA shows that the simultaneous calibration of recharge and flow parameters is possible if the calibration is performed over at least one year. It provides also the valuable information of the sensitivity versus time, depending on the aquifer inertia and climatic conditions. The groundwater levels variations during recharge (increase) are sensitive to the storage coefficient whereas the groundwater levels variations after recharge (decrease) are sensitive to the hydraulic conductivity. The performed model calibration on synthetic data sets shows that the parameters and recharge are estimated quite accurately.

Can hydraulic-modelled rating curves reduce uncertainty in high flow data?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerberg, Ida; Lam, Norris; Lyon, Steve W.

2017-04-01

Flood risk assessments rely on accurate discharge data records. Establishing a reliable rating curve for calculating discharge from stage at a gauging station normally takes years of data collection efforts. Estimation of high flows is particularly difficult as high flows occur rarely and are often practically difficult to gauge. Hydraulically-modelled rating curves can be derived based on as few as two concurrent stage-discharge and water-surface slope measurements at different flow conditions. This means that a reliable rating curve can, potentially, be derived much faster than a traditional rating curve based on numerous stage-discharge gaugings. In this study we compared the uncertainty in discharge data that resulted from these two rating curve modelling approaches. We applied both methods to a Swedish catchment, accounting for uncertainties in the stage-discharge gauging and water-surface slope data for the hydraulic model and in the stage-discharge gauging data and rating-curve parameters for the traditional method. We focused our analyses on high-flow uncertainty and the factors that could reduce this uncertainty. In particular, we investigated which data uncertainties were most important, and at what flow conditions the gaugings should preferably be taken. First results show that the hydraulically-modelled rating curves were more sensitive to uncertainties in the calibration measurements of discharge than water surface slope. The uncertainty of the hydraulically-modelled rating curves were lowest within the range of the three calibration stage-discharge gaugings (i.e. between median and two-times median flow) whereas uncertainties were higher outside of this range. For instance, at the highest observed stage of the 24-year stage record, the 90% uncertainty band was -15% to +40% of the official rating curve. Additional gaugings at high flows (i.e. four to five times median flow) would likely substantially reduce those uncertainties. These first results show the potential of the hydraulically-modelled curves, particularly where the calibration gaugings are of high quality and cover a wide range of flow conditions.

Multisite Evaluation of APEX for Water Quality: I. Best Professional Judgment Parameterization.

PubMed

Baffaut, Claire; Nelson, Nathan O; Lory, John A; Senaviratne, G M M M Anomaa; Bhandari, Ammar B; Udawatta, Ranjith P; Sweeney, Daniel W; Helmers, Matt J; Van Liew, Mike W; Mallarino, Antonio P; Wortmann, Charles S

2017-11-01

The Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model is capable of estimating edge-of-field water, nutrient, and sediment transport and is used to assess the environmental impacts of management practices. The current practice is to fully calibrate the model for each site simulation, a task that requires resources and data not always available. The objective of this study was to compare model performance for flow, sediment, and phosphorus transport under two parameterization schemes: a best professional judgment (BPJ) parameterization based on readily available data and a fully calibrated parameterization based on site-specific soil, weather, event flow, and water quality data. The analysis was conducted using 12 datasets at four locations representing poorly drained soils and row-crop production under different tillage systems. Model performance was based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the coefficient of determination () and the regression slope between simulated and measured annualized loads across all site years. Although the BPJ model performance for flow was acceptable (NSE = 0.7) at the annual time step, calibration improved it (NSE = 0.9). Acceptable simulation of sediment and total phosphorus transport (NSE = 0.5 and 0.9, respectively) was obtained only after full calibration at each site. Given the unacceptable performance of the BPJ approach, uncalibrated use of APEX for planning or management purposes may be misleading. Model calibration with water quality data prior to using APEX for simulating sediment and total phosphorus loss is essential. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Groundwater-flow model of the northern High Plains aquifer in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Steven M.; Flynn, Amanda T.; Traylor, Jonathan P.

2016-12-13

The High Plains aquifer is a nationally important water resource underlying about 175,000 square miles in parts of eight states: Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming. Droughts across much of the Northern High Plains from 2001 to 2007 have combined with recent (2004) legislative mandates to elevate concerns regarding future availability of groundwater and the need for additional information to support science-based water-resource management. To address these needs, the U.S. Geological Survey began the High Plains Groundwater Availability Study to provide a tool for water-resource managers and other stakeholders to assess the status and availability of groundwater resources.A transient groundwater-flow model was constructed using the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater-flow model with Newton-Rhapson solver (MODFLOW–NWT). The model uses an orthogonal grid of 565 rows and 795 columns, and each grid cell measures 3,281 feet per side, with one variably thick vertical layer, simulated as unconfined. Groundwater flow was simulated for two distinct periods: (1) the period before substantial groundwater withdrawals, or before about 1940, and (2) the period of increasing groundwater withdrawals from May 1940 through April 2009. A soil-water-balance model was used to estimate recharge from precipitation and groundwater withdrawals for irrigation. The soil-water-balance model uses spatially distributed soil and landscape properties with daily weather data and estimated historical land-cover maps to calculate spatial and temporal variations in potential recharge. Mean annual recharge estimated for 1940–49, early in the history of groundwater development, and 2000–2009, late in the history of groundwater development, was 3.3 and 3.5 inches per year, respectively.Primary model calibration was completed using statistical techniques through parameter estimation using the parameter estimation suite of software with Tikhonov regularization. Calibration targets for the groundwater model included 343,067 groundwater levels measured in wells and 10,820 estimated monthly stream base flows at streamgages. A total of 1,312 parameters were adjusted during calibration to improve the match between calibration targets and simulated equivalents. Comparison of calibration targets to simulated equivalents indicated that, at the regional scale, the model correctly reproduced groundwater levels and stream base flows for 1940–2009. This comparison indicates that the model can be used to examine the likely response of the aquifer system to potential future stresses.Mean calibrated recharge for 1940–49 and 2000–2009 was smaller than that estimated with the soil-water-balance model. This indicated that although the general spatial patterns of recharge estimated with the soil-water-balance model were approximately correct at the regional scale of the Northern High Plains aquifer, the soil-water-balance model had overestimated recharge, and adjustments were needed to decrease recharge to improve the match of the groundwater model to calibration targets. The largest components of the simulated groundwater budgets were recharge from precipitation, recharge from canal seepage, outflows to evapotranspiration, and outflows to stream base flow. Simulated outflows to irrigation wells increased from 7 percent of total outflows in 1940–49 to 38 percent of 1970–79 total outflows and 49 percent of 2000–2009 total outflows.

CFD Simulations of the IHF Arc-Jet Flow: Compression-Pad Separation Bolt Wedge Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gokcen, Tahir; Skokova, Kristina A.

2017-01-01

This paper reports computational analyses in support of two wedge tests in a high enthalpy arc-jet facility at NASA Ames Research Center. These tests were conducted using two different wedge models, each placed in a free jet downstream of a corresponding different conical nozzle in the Ames 60-MW Interaction Heating Facility. Each panel test article included a metallic separation bolt imbedded in Orion compression-pad and heatshield materials, resulting in a circular protuberance over a flat plate. The protuberances produce complex model flowfields, containing shock-shock and shock-boundary layer interactions, and multiple augmented heating regions on the test plate. As part of the test calibration runs, surface pressure and heat flux measurements on water-cooled calibration plates integrated with the wedge models were also obtained. Surface heating distributions on the test articles as well as arc-jet test environment parameters for each test configuration are obtained through computational fluid dynamics simulations, consistent with the facility and calibration measurements. The present analysis comprises simulations of the non-equilibrium flow field in the facility nozzle, test box, and flow field over test articles, and comparisons with the measured calibration data.

Calibration of water distribution network of the Ramnagar zone in Nagpur City using online pressure and flow data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jadhao, Ramrao D.; Gupta, Rajesh

2018-03-01

Calibration of hydraulic model of a water distribution network is required to match the model results of flows and pressures with those obtained in the field. This is a challenging task considering the involvement of a large number of parameters. Having more precise data helps in reducing time and results in better calibration as shown herein with a case study of one hydraulic zone served from the Ramnagar Ground Service Reservoir in Nagpur City. Flow and pressure values for the entire day were obtained through data loggers. Network details regarding pipe lengths, diameters, installation year and material were obtained with the largest possible accuracy. Locations of consumers on the network were noted and average nodal consumptions were obtained from the billing records. The non-revenue water losses were uniformly allocated to all junctions. Valve positions and their operating status were noted from the field and used. The pipe roughness coefficients were adjusted to match the model values with field values of pressures at observation nodes by minimizing the sum of square of difference between them. This paper aims at describing the entire process from collection of the required data to the calibration of the network.

Use of a Stanton Tube for Skin-Friction Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abarbanel, S. S.; Hakkinen, R. J.; Trilling, L.

1959-01-01

A small total-pressure tube resting against a flat-plate surface was used as a Stanton tube and calibrated as a skin-friction meter at various subsonic and supersonic speeds. Laminar flow was maintained for the supersonic runs at a Mach number M(sub infinity) of 2. At speeds between M(sub infinity) = 1.33 and M(sub infinity) = 1.87, the calibrations were carried-out in a turbulent boundary layer. The subsonic flows were found to be in transition. The skin-friction readings of a floating-element type of balance served as the reference values against which the Stanton tube was calibrated. A theoretical model was developed which, for moderate values of the shear parameter tau, accurately predicts the performance of the Stanton tube in subsonic and supersonic flows. A "shear correction factor" was found to explain the deviations from the basic model when T became too large. Compressibility effects were important only in the case of turbulent supersonic flows, and they did not alter the form of the calibration curve. The test Reynolds numbers, based on the distance from the leading edge and free-stream conditions, ranged from 70,000 to 875,000. The turbulent-boundary-layer Reynolds numbers, based on momentum thickness, varied between 650 and 2,300. Both laminar and turbulent velocity profiles were taken and the effect of pressure gradient on the calibration was investigated.

Simulation of the Shallow Ground-Water-Flow System near Grindstone Creek and the Community of New Post, Sawyer County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juckem, Paul F.; Hunt, Randall J.

2007-01-01

A two-dimensional, steady-state ground-water-flow model of Grindstone Creek, the New Post community, and the surrounding areas was developed using the analytic element computer code GFLOW. The parameter estimation code UCODE was used to obtain a best fit of the model to measured water levels and streamflows. The calibrated model was then used to simulate the effect of ground-water pumping on base flow in Grindstone Creek. Local refinements to the regional model were subsequently added in the New Post area, and local water-level data were used to evaluate the regional model calibration. The locally refined New Post model was also used to simulate the areal extent of capture for two existing water-supply wells and two possible replacement wells. Calibration of the regional Grindstone Creek simulation resulted in horizontal hydraulic conductivity values of 58.2 feet per day (ft/d) for the regional glacial and sandstone aquifer and 7.9 ft/d for glacial thrust-mass areas. Ground-water recharge in the calibrated regional model was 10.1 inches per year. Simulation of a golf-course irrigation well, located roughly 4,000 feet away from the creek, and pumping at 46 gallons per minute (0.10 cubic feet per second, ft3/s), reduced base flow in Grindstone Creek by 0.05 ft3/s, or 0.6 percent of the median base flow during water year 2003, compared to the calibrated model simulation without pumping. A simulation of peak pumping periods (347 gallons per minute or 0.77 ft3/s) reduced base flow in Grindstone Creek by 0.4 ft3/s (4.9 percent of the median base flow). Capture zones for existing and possible replacement wells delineated by the local New Post simulation extend from the well locations to an area south of the pumping well locations. Shallow crystalline bedrock, generally located south of the community, limits the extent of the aquifer and thus the southerly extent of the capture zones. Simulated steady-state pumping at a rate of 9,600 gallons per day (gal/d) from a possible replacement well near the Chippewa Flowage induced 70 gal/d of water from the flowage to enter the aquifer. Although no water-quality samples were collected from the Chippewa Flowage or the ground-water system, surface-water leakage into the ground-water system could potentially change the local water quality in the aquifer.

Static Flow Characteristics of a Mass Flow Injecting Valve

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mattern, Duane; Paxson, Dan

1995-01-01

A sleeve valve is under development for ground-based forced response testing of air compression systems. This valve will be used to inject air and to impart momentum to the flow inside the first stage of a multi-stage compressor. The valve was designed to deliver a maximum mass flow of 0.22 lbm/s (0.1 kg/s) with a maximum valve throat area of 0.12 sq. in (80 sq. mm), a 100 psid (689 KPA) pressure difference across the valve and a 68 F, (20 C) air supply. It was assumed that the valve mass flow rate would be proportional to the valve orifice area. A static flow calibration revealed a nonlinear valve orifice area to mass flow relationship which limits the maximum flow rate that the valve can deliver. This nonlinearity was found to be caused by multiple choking points in the flow path. A simple model was used to explain this nonlinearity and the model was compared to the static flow calibration data. Only steady flow data is presented here. In this report, the static flow characteristics of a proportionally controlled sleeve valve are modelled and validated against experimental data.

How does higher frequency monitoring data affect the calibration of a process-based water quality model?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson-Blake, Leah; Helliwell, Rachel

2015-04-01

Process-based catchment water quality models are increasingly used as tools to inform land management. However, for such models to be reliable they need to be well calibrated and shown to reproduce key catchment processes. Calibration can be challenging for process-based models, which tend to be complex and highly parameterised. Calibrating a large number of parameters generally requires a large amount of monitoring data, spanning all hydrochemical conditions. However, regulatory agencies and research organisations generally only sample at a fortnightly or monthly frequency, even in well-studied catchments, often missing peak flow events. The primary aim of this study was therefore to investigate how the quality and uncertainty of model simulations produced by a process-based, semi-distributed catchment model, INCA-P (the INtegrated CAtchment model of Phosphorus dynamics), were improved by calibration to higher frequency water chemistry data. Two model calibrations were carried out for a small rural Scottish catchment: one using 18 months of daily total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) concentration data, another using a fortnightly dataset derived from the daily data. To aid comparability, calibrations were carried out automatically using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo - DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (MCMC-DREAM) algorithm. Calibration to daily data resulted in improved simulation of peak TDP concentrations and improved model performance statistics. Parameter-related uncertainty in simulated TDP was large when fortnightly data was used for calibration, with a 95% credible interval of 26 μg/l. This uncertainty is comparable in size to the difference between Water Framework Directive (WFD) chemical status classes, and would therefore make it difficult to use this calibration to predict shifts in WFD status. The 95% credible interval reduced markedly with the higher frequency monitoring data, to 6 μg/l. The number of parameters that could be reliably auto-calibrated was lower for the fortnightly data, with a physically unrealistic TDP simulation being produced when too many parameters were allowed to vary during model calibration. Parameters should not therefore be varied spatially for models such as INCA-P unless there is solid evidence that this is appropriate, or there is a real need to do so for the model to fulfil its purpose. This study highlights the potential pitfalls of using low frequency timeseries of observed water quality to calibrate complex process-based models. For reliable model calibrations to be produced, monitoring programmes need to be designed which capture system variability, in particular nutrient dynamics during high flow events. In addition, there is a need for simpler models, so that all model parameters can be included in auto-calibration and uncertainty analysis, and to reduce the data needs during calibration.

Calibration strategies for a groundwater model in a highly dynamic alpine floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foglia, L.; Burlando, P.; Hill, Mary C.; Mehl, S.

2004-01-01

Most surface flows to the 20-km-long Maggia Valley in Southern Switzerland are impounded and the valley is being investigated to determine environmental flow requirements. The aim of the investigation is the devel-opment of a modelling framework that simulates the dynamics of the ground-water, hydrologic, and ecologic systems. Because of the multi-scale nature of the modelling framework, large-scale models are first developed to provide the boundary conditions for more detailed models of reaches that are of eco-logical importance. We describe here the initial (large-scale) groundwa-ter/surface water model and its calibration in relation to initial and boundary conditions. A MODFLOW-2000 model was constructed to simulate the inter-action of groundwater and surface water and was developed parsimoniously to avoid modelling artefacts and parameter inconsistencies. Model calibration includes two steady-state conditions, with and without recharge to the aquifer from the adjoining hillslopes. Parameters are defined to represent areal re-charge, hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer (up to 5 classes), and streambed hydraulic conductivity. Model performance was investigated following two system representation. The first representation assumed unknown flow input at the northern end of the groundwater domain and unknown lateral inflow. The second representation used simulations of the lateral flow obtained by means of a raster-based, physically oriented and continuous in time rainfall-runoff (R-R) model. Results based on these two representations are compared and discussed.

Identifying influential data points in hydrological model calibration and their impact on streamflow predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, David; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth

2015-04-01

Highly influential data points are those that have a disproportionately large impact on model performance, parameters and predictions. However, in current hydrological modelling practice the relative influence of individual data points on hydrological model calibration is not commonly evaluated. This presentation illustrates and evaluates several influence diagnostics tools that hydrological modellers can use to assess the relative influence of data. The feasibility and importance of including influence detection diagnostics as a standard tool in hydrological model calibration is discussed. Two classes of influence diagnostics are evaluated: (1) computationally demanding numerical "case deletion" diagnostics; and (2) computationally efficient analytical diagnostics, based on Cook's distance. These diagnostics are compared against hydrologically orientated diagnostics that describe changes in the model parameters (measured through the Mahalanobis distance), performance (objective function displacement) and predictions (mean and maximum streamflow). These influence diagnostics are applied to two case studies: a stage/discharge rating curve model, and a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (GR4J). Removing a single data point from the calibration resulted in differences to mean flow predictions of up to 6% for the rating curve model, and differences to mean and maximum flow predictions of up to 10% and 17%, respectively, for the hydrological model. When using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in calibration, the computationally cheaper Cook's distance metrics produce similar results to the case-deletion metrics at a fraction of the computational cost. However, Cooks distance is adapted from linear regression with inherit assumptions on the data and is therefore less flexible than case deletion. Influential point detection diagnostics show great potential to improve current hydrological modelling practices by identifying highly influential data points. The findings of this study establish the feasibility and importance of including influential point detection diagnostics as a standard tool in hydrological model calibration. They provide the hydrologist with important information on whether model calibration is susceptible to a small number of highly influent data points. This enables the hydrologist to make a more informed decision of whether to (1) remove/retain the calibration data; (2) adjust the calibration strategy and/or hydrological model to reduce the susceptibility of model predictions to a small number of influential observations.

Modeling highly transient flow, mass, and heat transport in the Chattahoochee River near Atlanta, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jobson, Harvey E.; Keefer, Thomas N.

1979-01-01

A coupled flow-temperature model has been developed and verified for a 27.9-km reach of the Chattahoochee River between Buford Dam and Norcross, Ga. Flow in this reach of the Chattahoochee is continuous but highly regulated by Buford Dam, a flood-control and hydroelectric facility located near Buford, Ga. Calibration and verification utilized two sets of data collected under highly unsteady discharge conditions. Existing solution techniques, with certain minor improvements, were applied to verify the existing technology of flow and transport modeling. The linear, implicit finite-difference flow model was calibrated by use of a depth profile obtained at steady low flow and unsteady flow data obtained in March 1976. During the calibration period, the model was generally able to reproduce observed stages to within 0.15 m and discharges at less than 100 m 3 /s, to within 5 percent. Peak discharges of about 200 m 3 /s were under-estimated by about 20 percent. During the verification period, October 1975, the flow model reproduced observed stage changes to within about 0.15 m, and its timing and over-all performance was considered to be very good. Dye was added to the upstream end of the river reach at a constant rate while the river flow was highly unsteady. The numerical solution of either the conservative or nonconservative form of the mass-transport equation did an excellent job of simulating the observed concentrations of dye in the river. The temperature model was capable of predicting temperature changes through this reach of as large as 5.8?C with a RMS (root-mean-square) error of 0.32?C in October 1975 and 0.20?C in March 1976. Hydropulsation has a significant effect on the water temperature below Buford Dam. These effects are very complicated because they are quite dependent on the timing of the release with respect to both the time of day and past releases.

Smoothed particle hydrodynamic modeling of volcanic debris flows: Application to Huiloac Gorge lahars (Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddad, Bouchra; Palacios, David; Pastor, Manuel; Zamorano, José Juan

2016-09-01

Lahars are among the most catastrophic volcanic processes, and the ability to model them is central to mitigating their effects. Several lahars recently generated by the Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico) moved downstream through the Huiloac Gorge towards the village of Santiago Xalitzintla. The most dangerous was the 2001 lahar, in which the destructive power of the debris flow was maintained throughout the extent of the flow. Identifying the zone of hazard can be based either on numerical or empirical models, but a calibration and validation process is required to ensure hazard map quality. The Geoflow-SPH depth integrated numerical model used in this study to reproduce the 2001 lahar was derived from the velocity-pressure version of the Biot-Zienkiewicz model, and was discretized using the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method. The results of the calibrated SPH model were validated by comparing the simulated deposit depth with the field depth measured at 16 cross sections distributed strategically along the gorge channel. Moreover, the dependency of the results on topographic mesh resolution, initial lahar mass shape and dimensions is also investigated. The results indicate that to accurately reproduce the 2001 lahar flow dynamics the channel topography needed to be discretized using a mesh having a minimum 5 m resolution, and an initial lahar mass shape that adopted the source area morphology. Field validation of the calibrated model showed that there was a satisfactory relationship between the simulated and field depths, the error being less than 20% for 11 of the 16 cross sections. This study demonstrates that the Geoflow-SPH model was able to accurately reproduce the lahar path and the extent of the flow, but also reproduced other parameters including flow velocity and deposit depth.

Limits of Predictability in Commuting Flows in the Absence of Data for Calibration

PubMed Central

Yang, Yingxiang; Herrera, Carlos; Eagle, Nathan; González, Marta C.

2014-01-01

The estimation of commuting flows at different spatial scales is a fundamental problem for different areas of study. Many current methods rely on parameters requiring calibration from empirical trip volumes. Their values are often not generalizable to cases without calibration data. To solve this problem we develop a statistical expression to calculate commuting trips with a quantitative functional form to estimate the model parameter when empirical trip data is not available. We calculate commuting trip volumes at scales from within a city to an entire country, introducing a scaling parameter α to the recently proposed parameter free radiation model. The model requires only widely available population and facility density distributions. The parameter can be interpreted as the influence of the region scale and the degree of heterogeneity in the facility distribution. We explore in detail the scaling limitations of this problem, namely under which conditions the proposed model can be applied without trip data for calibration. On the other hand, when empirical trip data is available, we show that the proposed model's estimation accuracy is as good as other existing models. We validated the model in different regions in the U.S., then successfully applied it in three different countries. PMID:25012599

Experimental Validation of ARFI Surveillance of Subcutaneous Hemorrhage (ASSH) Using Calibrated Infusions in a Tissue-Mimicking Model and Dogs.

PubMed

Geist, Rebecca E; DuBois, Chase H; Nichols, Timothy C; Caughey, Melissa C; Merricks, Elizabeth P; Raymer, Robin; Gallippi, Caterina M

2016-09-01

Acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) Surveillance of Subcutaneous Hemorrhage (ASSH) has been previously demonstrated to differentiate bleeding phenotype and responses to therapy in dogs and humans, but to date, the method has lacked experimental validation. This work explores experimental validation of ASSH in a poroelastic tissue-mimic and in vivo in dogs. The experimental design exploits calibrated flow rates and infusion durations of evaporated milk in tofu or heparinized autologous blood in dogs. The validation approach enables controlled comparisons of ASSH-derived bleeding rate (BR) and time to hemostasis (TTH) metrics. In tissue-mimicking experiments, halving the calibrated flow rate yielded ASSH-derived BRs that decreased by 44% to 48%. Furthermore, for calibrated flow durations of 5.0 minutes and 7.0 minutes, average ASSH-derived TTH was 5.2 minutes and 7.0 minutes, respectively, with ASSH predicting the correct TTH in 78% of trials. In dogs undergoing calibrated autologous blood infusion, ASSH measured a 3-minute increase in TTH, corresponding to the same increase in the calibrated flow duration. For a measured 5% decrease in autologous infusion flow rate, ASSH detected a 7% decrease in BR. These tissue-mimicking and in vivo preclinical experimental validation studies suggest the ASSH BR and TTH measures reflect bleeding dynamics. © The Author(s) 2015.

A Data-driven Approach for Forecasting Next-day River Discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Billah, K. S.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on evaluating the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model, a simple Auto-Regressive with eXogenous input (ARX) model, and a Gene expression programming (GEP)-based model in one-day-ahead forecasting of discharge of a subtropical basin (the upper Kentucky River Basin). The three models were calibrated with daily flow at the US Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging station not affected by flow regulation for the period of 2002-2005. The calibrated models were then validated at the same gauging station as well as another USGS gauge 88 km downstream for the period of 2008-2010. The results suggest that simple models outperform a sophisticated hydrological model with GEP having the advantage of being able to generate functional relationships that allow scientific investigation of the complex nonlinear interrelationships among input variables. Unlike SWAT, GEP, and to some extent, ARX are less sensitive to the length of the calibration time series and do not require a spin-up period.

Design and numerical simulation on an auto-cumulative flowmeter in horizontal oil-water two-phase flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Beibei; Kong, Lingfu; Kong, Deming; Kong, Weihang; Li, Lei; Liu, Xingbin; Chen, Jiliang

2017-11-01

In order to accurately measure the flow rate under the low yield horizontal well conditions, an auto-cumulative flowmeter (ACF) was proposed. Using the proposed flowmeter, the oil flow rate in horizontal oil-water two-phase segregated flow can be finely extracted. The computational fluid dynamics software Fluent was used to simulate the fluid of the ACF in oil-water two-phase flow. In order to calibrate the simulation measurement of the ACF, a novel oil flow rate measurement method was further proposed. The models of the ACF were simulated to obtain and calibrate the oil flow rate under different total flow rates and oil cuts. Using the finite-element method, the structure of the seven conductance probes in the ACF was simulated. The response values for the probes of the ACF under the conditions of oil-water segregated flow were obtained. The experiments for oil-water segregated flow under different heights of the oil accumulation in horizontal oil-water two-phase flow were carried out to calibrate the ACF. The validity of the oil flow rate measurement in horizontal oil-water two-phase flow was verified by simulation and experimental results.

Design and numerical simulation on an auto-cumulative flowmeter in horizontal oil-water two-phase flow.

PubMed

Xie, Beibei; Kong, Lingfu; Kong, Deming; Kong, Weihang; Li, Lei; Liu, Xingbin; Chen, Jiliang

2017-11-01

In order to accurately measure the flow rate under the low yield horizontal well conditions, an auto-cumulative flowmeter (ACF) was proposed. Using the proposed flowmeter, the oil flow rate in horizontal oil-water two-phase segregated flow can be finely extracted. The computational fluid dynamics software Fluent was used to simulate the fluid of the ACF in oil-water two-phase flow. In order to calibrate the simulation measurement of the ACF, a novel oil flow rate measurement method was further proposed. The models of the ACF were simulated to obtain and calibrate the oil flow rate under different total flow rates and oil cuts. Using the finite-element method, the structure of the seven conductance probes in the ACF was simulated. The response values for the probes of the ACF under the conditions of oil-water segregated flow were obtained. The experiments for oil-water segregated flow under different heights of the oil accumulation in horizontal oil-water two-phase flow were carried out to calibrate the ACF. The validity of the oil flow rate measurement in horizontal oil-water two-phase flow was verified by simulation and experimental results.

Calibrant-Free Analyte Quantitation via a Variable Velocity Flow Cell.

PubMed

Beck, Jason G; Skuratovsky, Aleksander; Granger, Michael C; Porter, Marc D

2017-01-17

In this paper, we describe a novel method for analyte quantitation that does not rely on calibrants, internal standards, or calibration curves but, rather, leverages the relationship between disparate and predictable surface-directed analyte flux to an array of sensing addresses and a measured resultant signal. To reduce this concept to practice, we fabricated two flow cells such that the mean linear fluid velocity, U, was varied systematically over an array of electrodes positioned along the flow axis. This resulted in a predictable variation of the address-directed flux of a redox analyte, ferrocenedimethanol (FDM). The resultant limiting currents measured at a series of these electrodes, and accurately described by a convective-diffusive transport model, provided a means to calculate an "unknown" concentration without the use of calibrants, internal standards, or a calibration curve. Furthermore, the experiment and concentration calculation only takes minutes to perform. Deviation in calculated FDM concentrations from true values was minimized to less than 0.5% when empirically derived values of U were employed.

NIST/ISAC standardization study: variability in assignment of intensity values to fluorescence standard beads and in cross calibration of standard beads to hard dyed beads.

PubMed

Hoffman, Robert A; Wang, Lili; Bigos, Martin; Nolan, John P

2012-09-01

Results from a standardization study cosponsored by the International Society for Advancement of Cytometry (ISAC) and the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) are reported. The study evaluated the variability of assigning intensity values to fluorophore standard beads by bead manufacturers and the variability of cross calibrating the standard beads to stained polymer beads (hard-dyed beads) using different flow cytometers. Hard dyed beads are generally not spectrally matched to the fluorophores used to stain cells, and spectral response varies among flow cytometers. Thus if hard dyed beads are used as fluorescence calibrators, one expects calibration for specific fluorophores (e.g., FITC or PE) to vary among different instruments. Using standard beads surface-stained with specific fluorophores (FITC, PE, APC, and Pacific Blue™), the study compared the measured intensity of fluorophore standard beads to that of hard dyed beads through cross calibration on 133 different flow cytometers. Using robust CV as a measure of variability, the variation of cross calibrated values was typically 20% or more for a particular hard dyed bead in a specific detection channel. The variation across different instrument models was often greater than the variation within a particular instrument model. As a separate part of the study, NIST and four bead manufacturers used a NIST supplied protocol and calibrated fluorophore solution standards to assign intensity values to the fluorophore beads. Values assigned to the reference beads by different groups varied by orders of magnitude in most cases, reflecting differences in instrumentation used to perform the calibration. The study concluded that the use of any spectrally unmatched hard dyed bead as a general fluorescence calibrator must be verified and characterized for every particular instrument model. Close interaction between bead manufacturers and NIST is recommended to have reliable and uniformly assigned fluorescence standard beads. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

Calibration of a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model for parts of the Allegheny, Monongahela, and Ohio Rivers, Allegheny County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, John W.; Wagner, Chad R.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Allegheny County Sanitary Authority, developed a validated two-dimensional Resource Management Associates2 (RMA2) hydrodynamic model of parts of the Allegheny, Monongahela, and Ohio Rivers (Three Rivers) to help assess the effects of combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and sanitary sewer overflows (SSOs) on the rivers. The hydrodynamic model was used to drive a water-quality model of the study area that was capable of simulating the transport and fate of fecal-indicator bacteria and chemical constituents under open-water conditions. The study area includes 14 tributary streams and parts of the Three Rivers where they enter and exit Allegheny County, an area of approximately 730 square miles (mi2). The city of Pittsburgh is near the center of the county, where the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers join to form the headwaters of the Ohio River. The Three Rivers are regulated by a series of fixed-crest dams, gated dams, and radial (tainter) gates and serve as the receiving waters for tributary streams, CSOs, and SSOs. The RMA2 model was separated into four individual segments on the basis of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers navigational pools in the study area (Dashields; Emsworth; Allegheny River, Pool 2; and Braddock), which were calibrated individually using measured water-surface slope, velocity, and discharge during high- and low-flow conditions. The model calibration process included the comparison of water-surface elevations at five locations and velocity profiles at more than 80 cross sections in the study area. On the basis of the calibration and validation results that included water-surface elevations and velocities, the model is a representative simulation of the Three Rivers flow patterns for discharges ranging from 4,050 to 47,400 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) on the Allegheny River, 2,550 to 40,000 ft3/s on the Monongahela River, and 10,900 to 99,000 ft3/s on the Ohio River. The Monongahela River was characterized by unsteady conditions during low and high flows, which affected the calibration range. The simulated low-flow water-surface elevations typically were within 0.2 feet (ft) of measured values, whereas the simulated high-flow water-surface elevations were typically within 0.3 ft of the measured values. The mean error between simulated and measured velocities was less than 0.07 ft/s for low-flow conditions and less than 0.17 ft/s for high-flow conditions.

Description and calibration of the Langley 6- by 19-inch transonic tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ladson, C. L.

1973-01-01

A description and calibration is presented of the Langley 6- by 19-inch transonic tunnel which is a two-dimensional facility with top and bottom slotted walls used for testing two-dimensional airfoil sections. Basic tunnel-empty Mach number distributions and schlieren flow photographs as well as integrated normal-force coefficients, pitching-moment coefficients, surface-pressure distributions, and schlieren flow photographs of an NACA 0012 airfoil calibration model are presented. The Mach number capability of the facility is from 0.5 to about 1.1 with a corresponding Reynolds number range of 1.5 million to 3 million based on a 4.0-in. model chord. Comparisons of experimental results from the tests with previous data are also presented.

A method of calibrating wind velocity sensors with a modified gas flow calibrator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stump, H. P.

1978-01-01

A procedure was described for calibrating air velocity sensors in the exhaust flow of a gas flow calibrator. The average velocity in the test section located at the calibrator exhaust was verified from the mass flow rate accurately measured by the calibrator's precision sonic nozzles. Air at elevated pressures flowed through a series of screens, diameter changes, and flow straighteners, resulting in a smooth flow through the open test section. The modified system generated air velocities of 2 to 90 meters per second with an uncertainty of about two percent for speeds below 15 meters per second and four percent for the higher speeds. Wind tunnel data correlated well with that taken in the flow calibrator.

The hydrological calibration and validation of a complexly-linked watershed reservoir model for the Occoquan watershed, Virginia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhongyan; Godrej, Adil N.; Grizzard, Thomas J.

2007-10-01

SummaryRunoff models such as HSPF and reservoir models such as CE-QUAL-W2 are used to model water quality in watersheds. Most often, the models are independently calibrated to observed data. While this approach can achieve good calibration, it does not replicate the physically-linked nature of the system. When models are linked by using the model output from an upstream model as input to a downstream model, the physical reality of a continuous watershed, where the overland and waterbody portions are parts of the whole, is better represented. There are some additional challenges in the calibration of such linked models, because the aim is to simulate the entire system as a whole, rather than piecemeal. When public entities are charged with model development, one of the driving forces is to use public-domain models. This paper describes the use of two such models, HSPF and CE-QUAL-W2, in the linked modeling of the Occoquan watershed located in northern Virginia, USA. The description of the process is provided, and results from the hydrological calibration and validation are shown. The Occoquan model consists of six HSPF and two CE-QUAL-W2 models, linked in a complex way, to simulate two major reservoirs and the associated drainage areas. The overall linked model was calibrated for a three-year period and validated for a two-year period. The results show that a successful calibration can be achieved using the linked approach, with moderate additional effort. Overall flow balances based on the three-year calibration period at four stream stations showed agreement ranging from -3.95% to +3.21%. Flow balances for the two reservoirs, compared via the daily water surface elevations, also showed good agreement ( R2 values of 0.937 for Lake Manassas and 0.926 for Occoquan Reservoir), when missing (un-monitored) flows were included. Validation of the models ranged from poor to fair for the watershed models and excellent for the waterbody models, thus indicating that the current model can be used to explore waterbody issues, but should be used with appropriate care for watershed issues. The study objective of being able to use the Occoquan model to study the impact of land use changes on hydrodynamics and water quality in the waterbodies, particularly the Occoquan Reservoir, can be met with the current model. However, appropriate judgment should be exercised when using the model for the prediction of watershed runoff. One of the advantages of using the linked approach is to develop a direct linkage between upstream land use changes and downstream water quality. This makes it easier for decision-makers to evaluate alternative watershed management plans and for the public to understand the decision-making process. The successful calibration of hydrology provides a solid base for further model development and application.

A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chase, Katherine J.; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Stanley, Andrea K.

2014-01-01

This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas they were lower during the evaluation period. The shape of the annual hydrographs for the simulated-natural daily streamflow values matched the shape of the hydrographs for the reconstructed-natural values for most of the calibration period, but daily streamflow values were underestimated during the evaluation period for water years 1996–1998. The model enabled a detailed evaluation of the components of the water budget within the Smith River watershed during the water year 1996–2008 study period. During this study period, simulated mean annual precipitation across the Smith River watershed was 16 inches, out of which 14 inches evaporated or transpired and 2 inches left the basin as streamflow. Per the precipitation-runoff model simulations, during most of the year, surface runoff rarely (less than 2 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008) makes up more than 10 percent of the total streamflow. Subsurface flow (the combination of interflow and groundwater flow) makes up most of the total streamflow (99 or more percent of total streamflow for 71 percent of the time during water years 2002–2008).

One-dimensional modelling of the interactions between heavy rainfall-runoff in an urban area and flooding flows from sewer networks and rivers.

PubMed

Kouyi, G Lipeme; Fraisse, D; Rivière, N; Guinot, V; Chocat, B

2009-01-01

Many investigations have been carried out in order to develop models which allow the linking of complex physical processes involved in urban flooding. The modelling of the interactions between overland flows on streets and flooding flows from rivers and sewer networks is one of the main objectives of recent and current research programs in hydraulics and urban hydrology. This paper outlines the original one-dimensional linking of heavy rainfall-runoff in urban areas and flooding flows from rivers and sewer networks under the RIVES project framework (Estimation of Scenario and Risks of Urban Floods). The first part of the paper highlights the capacity of Canoe software to simulate the street flows. In the second part, we show the original method of connection which enables the modelling of interactions between processes in urban flooding. Comparisons between simulated results and the results of Despotovic et al. or Gomez & Mur show a good agreement for the calibrated one-dimensional connection model. The connection operates likes a manhole with the orifice/weir coefficients used as calibration parameters. The influence of flooding flows from river was taken into account as a variable water depth boundary condition.

Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996--Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vermeul, Vincent R.; Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.

2001-08-29

The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures andmore » parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. These results, however, indicate that additional improvements are required to the conceptual model framework. An investigation was initiated at the end of this basalt inverse modeling effort to determine whether facies-based zonation would improve specific yield parameter estimation results (ACM-2). A description of the justification and methodology to develop this zonation is discussed.« less

Effects of Land-Use Changes and Ground-Water Withdrawals on Stream Base Flow, Pocono Creek Watershed, Monroe County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sloto, Ronald A.

2008-01-01

The Pocono Creek watershed drains 46.5 square miles in eastern Monroe County, Pa. Between 2000 and 2020, the population of Monroe County is expected to increase by 70 percent, which will result in substantial changes in land-use patterns. An evaluation of the effect of reduced recharge from land-use changes and additional ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow was done by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Delaware River Basin Commission as part of the USEPA?s Framework for Sustainable Watershed Management Initiative. Two models were used. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed by the USEPA provided areal recharge values for 2000 land use and projected full buildout land use. The USGS MODFLOW-2000 ground-water-flow model was used to estimate the effect of reduced recharge from changes in land use and additional ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow. This report describes the ground-water-flow-model simulations. The Pocono Creek watershed is underlain by sedimentary rock of Devonian age, which is overlain by a veneer of glacial deposits. All water-supply wells are cased into and derive water from the bedrock. In the ground-water-flow model, the surficial geologic units were grouped into six categories: (1) moraine deposits, (2) stratified drift, (3) lake deposits, (4) outwash, (5) swamp deposits, and (6) undifferentiated deposits. The unconsolidated surficial deposits are not used as a source of water. The ground-water and surface-water systems are well connected in the Pocono Creek watershed. Base flow measured on October 13, 2004, at 27 sites for model calibration showed that streams gained water between all sites measured except in the lower reach of Pocono Creek. The ground-water-flow model included the entire Pocono Creek watershed. Horizontally, the modeled area was divided into a 53 by 155 cell grid with 6,060 active cells. Vertically, the modeled area was discretized into four layers. Layers 1 and 2 represented the unconsolidated surficial deposits where they are present and bedrock where the surficial deposits are absent. Layer 3 represented shallow bedrock and was 200 ft (feet) thick. Layer 4 represented deep bedrock and was 300 ft thick. A total of 873 cells representing streams were assigned to layer 1. Recharge rates for model calibration were provided by the USEPA SWAT model for 2000 land-use conditions. Recharge rates for 2000 for the 29 subwatersheds in the SWAT model ranged from 6.11 to 22.66 inches per year. Because the ground-water-flow model was calibrated to base-flow data collected on October 13, 2004, the 2000 recharge rates were multiplied by 1.18 so the volume of recharge was equal to the volume of streamflow measured at the mouth of Pocono Creek. During model calibration, adjustments were made to aquifer hydraulic conductivity and streambed conductance. Simulated base flows and hydraulic heads were compared to measured base flows and hydraulic heads using the root mean squared error (RMSE) between measured and simulated values. The RMSE of the calibrated model for base flow was 4.7 cubic feet per second for 27 locations, and the RMSE for hydraulic heads for 15 locations was 35 ft. The USEPA SWAT model was used to provide areal recharge values for 2000 and full buildout land-use conditions. The change in recharge ranged from an increase of 37.8 percent to a decrease of 60.8 percent. The ground-water-flow model was used to simulate base flow for 2000 and full buildout land-use conditions using steady-state simulations. The decrease in simulated base flow ranged from 3.8 to 63 percent at the streamflow-measurement sites. Simulated base flow at streamflow-gaging station Pocono Creek above Wigwam Run near Stroudsburg, Pa. (01441495), decreased 25 percent. This is in general agreement with the SWAT model, which estimated a 30.6-percent loss in base flow at the streamflow-gaging station.

Application of the Shiono and Knight Method in asymmetric compound channels with different side slopes of the internal wall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alawadi, Wisam; Al-Rekabi, Wisam S.; Al-Aboodi, Ali H.

2018-03-01

The Shiono and Knight Method (SKM) is widely used to predict the lateral distribution of depth-averaged velocity and boundary shear stress for flows in compound channels. Three calibrating coefficients need to be estimated for applying the SKM, namely eddy viscosity coefficient ( λ), friction factor ( f) and secondary flow coefficient ( k). There are several tested methods which can satisfactorily be used to estimate λ, f. However, the calibration of secondary flow coefficients k to account for secondary flow effects correctly is still problematic. In this paper, the calibration of secondary flow coefficients is established by employing two approaches to estimate correct values of k for simulating asymmetric compound channel with different side slopes of the internal wall. The first approach is based on Abril and Knight (2004) who suggest fixed values for main channel and floodplain regions. In the second approach, the equations developed by Devi and Khatua (2017) that relate the variation of the secondary flow coefficients with the relative depth ( β) and width ratio ( α) are used. The results indicate that the calibration method developed by Devi and Khatua (2017) is a better choice for calibrating the secondary flow coefficients than using the first approach which assumes a fixed value of k for different flow depths. The results also indicate that the boundary condition based on the shear force continuity can successfully be used for simulating rectangular compound channels, while the continuity of depth-averaged velocity and its gradient is accepted boundary condition in simulations of trapezoidal compound channels. However, the SKM performance for predicting the boundary shear stress over the shear layer region may not be improved by only imposing the suitable calibrated values of secondary flow coefficients. This is because difficulties of modelling the complex interaction that develops between the flows in the main channel and on the floodplain in this region.

Modeling Phosphorus Losses through Surface Runoff and Subsurface Drainage Using ICECREAM.

PubMed

Qi, Hongkai; Qi, Zhiming; Zhang, T Q; Tan, C S; Sadhukhan, Debasis

2018-03-01

Modeling soil phosphorus (P) losses by surface and subsurface flow pathways is essential in developing successful strategies for P pollution control. We used the ICECREAM model to simultaneously simulate P losses in surface and subsurface flow, as well as to assess effectiveness of field practices in reducing P losses. Monitoring data from a mineral-P-fertilized clay loam field in southwestern Ontario, Canada, were used for calibration and validation. After careful adjustment of model parameters, ICECREAM was shown to satisfactorily simulate all major processes of surface and subsurface P losses. When the calibrated model was used to assess tillage and fertilizer management scenarios, results point to a 10% reduction in total P losses by shifting autumn tillage to spring, and a 25.4% reduction in total P losses by injecting fertilizer rather than broadcasting. Although the ICECREAM model was effective in simulating surface and subsurface P losses when thoroughly calibrated, further testing is needed to confirm these results with manure P application. As illustrated here, successful use of simulation models requires careful verification of model routines and comprehensive calibration to ensure that site-specific processes are accurately represented. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

40 CFR 1065.325 - Intake-flow calibration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Section 1065.325 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR POLLUTION CONTROLS ENGINE-TESTING PROCEDURES Calibrations and Verifications Flow-Related Measurements § 1065.325 Intake-flow calibration. (a) Calibrate intake-air flow meters upon initial installation. Follow the...

Impacts of Land Use/Cover Uncertainty on Predictions of Ecologically Relevant Flow Metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalin, L.; Dosdogru, F.

2016-12-01

Streamflow regimes are crucial parts of the ecological integrity in river systems. Although species are adopted to natural flow variability, permanent changes in flow regimes as a result of alterations in land use/cover of the watersheds can adversely impact ecosystem health. This study assessed the impacts of land use/cover (LULC) changes on ecologically relevant flow (ERF) metrics in the rapidly urbanizing upper Cahaba River basin in north-central Alabama. Cahaba River is the longest free-flowing river in the state of Alabama and is identified by the Nature Conservancy as one of the only eight "Hotspot of Biodiversity" in the contiguous United States. Cahaba River and its major tributaries support 69 rare and imperiled species, making it one of the most various aquatic ecosystems in the United States. SWAT model was used to generate daily streamflows, which were then fed into the Indicators of Hydrological Alterations (IHA) software to generate 38 key ERF metrics that capture high, low, and median flow, as well as flashiness, which are known to have significant impacts on flora and fauna. SWAT was calibrated and validated twice with two different sources of LULC. Model performances during calibration and validations were very good and were very similar with both LULC. The flow duration curves generated based on each LULC also look very similar. However, when we compared the ERF metrics significant differences were observed signifying the importance of LULC sources. The biggest differences were in Oct-Dec low flows, rise and fall rates of daily flows, annual maximum flow and average during month od October. This study shows that although model calibration can compensate for the differences in differences in LULC sources, when it comes to key ERF metrics the use of the most reliable LULC source is evident.

Parallel computing for automated model calibration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burke, John S.; Danielson, Gary R.; Schulz, Douglas A.

2002-07-29

Natural resources model calibration is a significant burden on computing and staff resources in modeling efforts. Most assessments must consider multiple calibration objectives (for example magnitude and timing of stream flow peak). An automated calibration process that allows real time updating of data/models, allowing scientists to focus effort on improving models is needed. We are in the process of building a fully featured multi objective calibration tool capable of processing multiple models cheaply and efficiently using null cycle computing. Our parallel processing and calibration software routines have been generically, but our focus has been on natural resources model calibration. Somore » far, the natural resources models have been friendly to parallel calibration efforts in that they require no inter-process communication, only need a small amount of input data and only output a small amount of statistical information for each calibration run. A typical auto calibration run might involve running a model 10,000 times with a variety of input parameters and summary statistical output. In the past model calibration has been done against individual models for each data set. The individual model runs are relatively fast, ranging from seconds to minutes. The process was run on a single computer using a simple iterative process. We have completed two Auto Calibration prototypes and are currently designing a more feature rich tool. Our prototypes have focused on running the calibration in a distributed computing cross platform environment. They allow incorporation of?smart? calibration parameter generation (using artificial intelligence processing techniques). Null cycle computing similar to SETI@Home has also been a focus of our efforts. This paper details the design of the latest prototype and discusses our plans for the next revision of the software.« less

Turbulence modeling in simulation of gas-turbine flow and heat transfer.

PubMed

Brereton, G; Shih, T I

2001-05-01

The popular k-epsilon type two-equation turbulence models, which are calibrated by experimental data from simple shear flows, are analyzed for their ability to predict flows involving shear and an extra strain--flow with shear and rotation and flow with shear and streamline curvature. The analysis is based on comparisons between model predictions and those from measurements and large-eddy simulations of homogenous flows involving shear and an extra strain, either from rotation or from streamline curvature. Parameters are identified, which show the conditions under which performance of k-epsilon type models can be expected to be poor.

Statistical Inference of a RANS closure for a Jet-in-Crossflow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyse, Jan; Edeling, Wouter; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2016-11-01

The jet-in-crossflow is found in several engineering applications, such as discrete film cooling for turbine blades, where a coolant injected through hols in the blade's surface protects the component from the hot gases leaving the combustion chamber. Experimental measurements using MRI techniques have been completed for a single hole injection into a turbulent crossflow, providing full 3D averaged velocity field. For such flows of engineering interest, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closure models are often the only viable computational option. However, RANS models are known to provide poor predictions in the region close to the injection point. Since these models are calibrated on simple canonical flow problems, the obtained closure coefficient estimates are unlikely to extrapolate well to more complex flows. We will therefore calibrate the parameters of a RANS model using statistical inference techniques informed by the experimental jet-in-crossflow data. The obtained probabilistic parameter estimates can in turn be used to compute flow fields with quantified uncertainty. Stanford Graduate Fellowship in Science and Engineering.

Modeling the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.; Hill, M.C.

2004-01-01

The development of a regional ground-water flow model of the Death Valley region in the southwestern United States is discussed in the context of the fourteen guidelines of Hill. This application of the guidelines demonstrates how they may be used for model calibration and evaluation, and to direct further model development and data collection.

A combined triggering-propagation modeling approach for the assessment of rainfall induced debris flow susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stancanelli, Laura Maria; Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino; Foti, Enrico

2017-07-01

Rainfall-induced shallow slides can evolve into debris flows that move rapidly downstream with devastating consequences. Mapping the susceptibility to debris flow is an important aid for risk mitigation. We propose a novel practical approach to derive debris flow inundation maps useful for susceptibility assessment, that is based on the integrated use of DEM-based spatially-distributed hydrological and slope stability models with debris flow propagation models. More specifically, the TRIGRS infiltration and infinite slope stability model and the FLO-2D model for the simulation of the related debris flow propagation and deposition are combined. An empirical instability-to-debris flow triggering threshold calibrated on the basis of observed events, is applied to link the two models and to accomplish the task of determining the amount of unstable mass that develops as a debris flow. Calibration of the proposed methodology is carried out based on real data of the debris flow event occurred on 1 October 2009, in the Peloritani mountains area (Italy). Model performance, assessed by receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) indexes, evidences fairly good reproduction of the observed event. Comparison with the performance of the traditional debris flow modeling procedure, in which sediment and water hydrographs are inputed as lumped at selected points on top of the streams, is also performed, in order to assess quantitatively the limitations of such commonly applied approach. Results show that the proposed method, besides of being more process-consistent than the traditional hydrograph-based approach, can potentially provide a more accurate simulation of debris-flow phenomena, in terms of spatial patterns of erosion and deposition as well on the quantification of mobilized volumes and depths, avoiding overestimation of debris flow triggering volume and, thus, of maximum inundation flow depths.

Error-in-variables models in calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lira, I.; Grientschnig, D.

2017-12-01

In many calibration operations, the stimuli applied to the measuring system or instrument under test are derived from measurement standards whose values may be considered to be perfectly known. In that case, it is assumed that calibration uncertainty arises solely from inexact measurement of the responses, from imperfect control of the calibration process and from the possible inaccuracy of the calibration model. However, the premise that the stimuli are completely known is never strictly fulfilled and in some instances it may be grossly inadequate. Then, error-in-variables (EIV) regression models have to be employed. In metrology, these models have been approached mostly from the frequentist perspective. In contrast, not much guidance is available on their Bayesian analysis. In this paper, we first present a brief summary of the conventional statistical techniques that have been developed to deal with EIV models in calibration. We then proceed to discuss the alternative Bayesian framework under some simplifying assumptions. Through a detailed example about the calibration of an instrument for measuring flow rates, we provide advice on how the user of the calibration function should employ the latter framework for inferring the stimulus acting on the calibrated device when, in use, a certain response is measured.

40 CFR 1065.640 - Flow meter calibration calculations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Flow meter calibration calculations... POLLUTION CONTROLS ENGINE-TESTING PROCEDURES Calculations and Data Requirements § 1065.640 Flow meter calibration calculations. This section describes the calculations for calibrating various flow meters. After...

Construction and calibration of a groundwater-flow model to assess groundwater availability in the uppermost principal aquifer systems of the Williston Basin, United States and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Kyle W.; Long, Andrew J.

2018-05-31

The U.S. Geological Survey developed a groundwater-flow model for the uppermost principal aquifer systems in the Williston Basin in parts of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota in the United States and parts of Manitoba and Saskatchewan in Canada as part of a detailed assessment of the groundwater availability in the area. The assessment was done because of the potential for increased demands and stresses on groundwater associated with large-scale energy development in the area. As part of this assessment, a three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed as a tool that can be used to simulate how the groundwater-flow system responds to changes in hydrologic stresses at a regional scale.The three-dimensional groundwater-flow model was developed using the U.S. Geological Survey’s numerical finite-difference groundwater model with the Newton-Rhapson solver, MODFLOW–NWT, to represent the glacial, lower Tertiary, and Upper Cretaceous aquifer systems for steady-state (mean) hydrological conditions for 1981‒2005 and for transient (temporally varying) conditions using a combination of a steady-state period for pre-1960 and transient periods for 1961‒2005. The numerical model framework was constructed based on existing and interpreted hydrogeologic and geospatial data and consisted of eight layers. Two layers were used to represent the glacial aquifer system in the model; layer 1 represented the upper one-half and layer 2 represented the lower one-half of the glacial aquifer system. Three layers were used to represent the lower Tertiary aquifer system in the model; layer 3 represented the upper Fort Union aquifer, layer 4 represented the middle Fort Union hydrogeologic unit, and layer 5 represented the lower Fort Union aquifer. Three layers were used to represent the Upper Cretaceous aquifer system in the model; layer 6 represented the upper Hell Creek hydrogeologic unit, layer 7 represented the lower Hell Creek aquifer, and layer 8 represented the Fox Hills aquifer. The numerical model was constructed using a uniform grid with square cells that are about 1 mile (1,600 meters) on each side with a total of about 657,000 active cells.Model calibration was completed by linking Parameter ESTimation (PEST) software with MODFLOW–NWT. The PEST software uses statistical parameter estimation techniques to identify an optimum set of input parameters by adjusting individual model input parameters and assessing the differences, or residuals, between observed (measured or estimated) data and simulated values. Steady-state model calibration consisted of attempting to match mean simulated values to measured or estimated values of (1) hydraulic head, (2) hydraulic head differences between model layers, (3) stream infiltration, and (4) discharge to streams. Calibration of the transient model consisted of attempting to match simulated and measured temporally distributed values of hydraulic head changes, stream base flow, and groundwater discharge to artesian flowing wells. Hydraulic properties estimated through model calibration included hydraulic conductivity, vertical hydraulic conductivity, aquifer storage, and riverbed hydraulic conductivity in addition to groundwater recharge and well skin.The ability of the numerical model to accurately simulate groundwater flow in the Williston Basin was assessed primarily by its ability to match calibration targets for hydraulic head, stream base flow, and flowing well discharge. The steady-state model also was used to assess the simulated potentiometric surfaces in the upper Fort Union aquifer, the lower Fort Union aquifer, and the Fox Hills aquifer. Additionally, a previously estimated regional groundwater-flow budget was compared with the simulated steady-state groundwater-flow budget for the Williston Basin. The simulated potentiometric surfaces typically compared well with the estimated potentiometric surfaces based on measured hydraulic head data and indicated localized groundwater-flow gradients that were topographically controlled in outcrop areas and more generalized regional gradients where the aquifers were confined. The differences between the measured and simulated (residuals) hydraulic head values for 11,109 wells were assessed, which indicated that the steady-state model generally underestimated hydraulic head in the model area. This underestimation is indicated by a positive mean residual of 11.2 feet for all model layers. Layer 7, which represents the lower Hell Creek aquifer, is the only layer for which the steady-state model overestimated hydraulic head. Simulated groundwater-level changes for the transient model matched within plus or minus 2.5 feet of the measured values for more than 60 percent of all measurements and to within plus or minus 17.5 feet for 95 percent of all measurements; however, the transient model underestimated groundwater-level changes for all model layers. A comparison between simulated and estimated base flows for the steady-state and transient models indicated that both models overestimated base flow in streams and underestimated annual fluctuations in base flow.The estimated and simulated groundwater budgets indicate the model area received a substantial amount of recharge from precipitation and stream infiltration. The steady-state model indicated that reservoir seepage was a larger component of recharge in the Williston Basin than was previously estimated. Irrigation recharge and groundwater inflow from outside the Williston Basin accounted for a relatively small part of total groundwater recharge when compared with recharge from precipitation, stream infiltration, and reservoir seepage. Most of the estimated and simulated groundwater discharge in the Williston Basin was to streams and reservoirs. Simulated groundwater withdrawal, discharge to reservoirs, and groundwater outflow in the Williston Basin accounted for a smaller part of total groundwater discharge.The transient model was used to simulate discharge to 571 flowing artesian wells within the model area. Of the 571 established flowing artesian wells simulated by the model, 271 wells did not flow at any time during the simulation because hydraulic head was always below the land-surface altitude. As hydraulic head declined throughout the simulation, 68 of these wells responded by ceasing to flow by the end of 2005. Total mean simulated discharge for the 571 flowing artesian wells was 55.1 cubic feet per second (ft3/s), and the mean simulated flowing well discharge for individual wells was 0.118 ft3/s. Simulated discharge to individual flowing artesian wells increased from 0.039 to 0.177 ft3/s between 1961 and 1975 and decreased to 0.102 ft3/s by 2005. The mean residual for 34 flowing wells with measured discharge was 0.014 ft3/s, which indicates the transient model overestimated discharge to flowing artesian wells in the model area.Model limitations arise from aspects of the conceptual model and from simplifications inherent in the construction and calibration of a regional-scale numerical groundwater-flow model. Simplifying assumptions in defining hydraulic parameters in space and hydrologic stresses and time-varying observational data in time can limit the capabilities of this tool to simulate how the groundwater-flow system responds to changes in hydrologic stresses, particularly at the local scale; nevertheless, the steady-state model adequately simulated flow in the uppermost principal aquifer systems in the Williston Basin based on the comparison between the simulated and estimated groundwater-flow budget, the comparison between simulated and estimated potentiometric surfaces, and the results of the calibration process.

Simulation of ground-water flow in glaciofluvial aquifers in the Grand Rapids area, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Perry M.

2004-01-01

A calibrated steady-state, finite-difference, ground-waterflow model was constructed to simulate ground-water flow in three glaciofluvial aquifers, defined in this report as the upper, middle, and lower aquifers, in an area of about 114 mi2 surrounding the city of Grand Rapids in north-central Minnesota. The calibrated model will be used by Minnesota Department of Health and communities in the Grand Rapids area in the development of wellhead protection plans for their water supplies. The model was calibrated through comparison of simulated ground-water levels to measured static water levels in 351 wells, and comparison of simulated base-flow rates to estimated base-flow rates for reaches of the Mississippi and Prairie Rivers. Model statistics indicate that the model tends to overestimate ground-water levels. The root mean square errors ranged from +12.83 ft in wells completed in the upper aquifer to +19.10 ft in wells completed in the middle aquifer. Mean absolute differences between simulated and measured water levels ranged from +4.43 ft for wells completed in the upper aquifer to +9.25 ft for wells completed in the middle aquifer. Mean algebraic differences ranged from +9.35 ft for wells completed in the upper aquifer to +14.44 ft for wells completed in the middle aquifer, with the positive differences indicating that the simulated water levels were higher than the measured water levels. Percentage errors between simulated and estimated base-flow rates for the three monitored reaches all were less than 10 percent, indicating good agreement. Simulated ground-water levels were most sensitive to changes in general-head boundary conductance, indicating that this characteristic is the predominant model input variable controlling steady-state water-level conditions. Simulated groundwater flow to stream reaches was most sensitive to changes in horizontal hydraulic conductivity, indicating that this characteristic is the predominant model input variable controlling steady-state flow conditions.

Groundwater availability in the Crouch Branch and McQueen Branch aquifers, Chesterfield County, South Carolina, 1900-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Bruce G.; Landmeyer, James E.

2014-01-01

Chesterfield County is located in the northeastern part of South Carolina along the southern border of North Carolina and is primarily underlain by unconsolidated sediments of Late Cretaceous age and younger of the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Approximately 20 percent of Chesterfield County is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province, and this area of the county is not included in this study. These Atlantic Coastal Plain sediments compose two productive aquifers: the Crouch Branch aquifer that is present at land surface across most of the county and the deeper, semi-confined McQueen Branch aquifer. Most of the potable water supplied to residents of Chesterfield County is produced from the Crouch Branch and McQueen Branch aquifers by a well field located near McBee, South Carolina, in the southwestern part of the county. Overall, groundwater availability is good to very good in most of Chesterfield County, especially the area around and to the south of McBee, South Carolina. The eastern part of Chesterfield County does not have as abundant groundwater resources but resources are generally adequate for domestic purposes. The primary purpose of this study was to determine groundwater-flow rates, flow directions, and changes in water budgets over time for the Crouch Branch and McQueen Branch aquifers in the Chesterfield County area. This goal was accomplished by using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference MODFLOW groundwater-flow code to construct and calibrate a groundwater-flow model of the Atlantic Coastal Plain of Chesterfield County. The model was created with a uniform grid size of 300 by 300 feet to facilitate a more accurate simulation of groundwater-surface-water interactions. The model consists of 617 rows from north to south extending about 35 miles and 884 columns from west to east extending about 50 miles, yielding a total area of about 1,750 square miles. However, the active part of the modeled area, or the part where groundwater flow is simulated, totaled about 1,117 square miles. Major types of data used as input to the model included groundwater levels, groundwater-use data, and hydrostratigraphic data, along with estimates and measurements of stream base flows made specifically for this study. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated to groundwater-level and stream base-flow conditions from 1900 to 2012 using 39 stress periods. The model was calibrated with an automated parameter-estimation approach using the computer program PEST, and the model used regularized inversion and pilot points. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated using field data that included groundwater levels that had been collected between 1940 and 2012 from 239 wells and base-flow measurements from 44 locations distributed within the study area. To better understand recharge and inter-aquifer interactions, seven wells were equipped with continuous groundwater-level recording equipment during the course of the study, between 2008 and 2012. These water levels were included in the model calibration process. The observed groundwater levels were compared to the simulated ones, and acceptable calibration fits were achieved. Root mean square error for the simulated groundwater levels compared to all observed groundwater levels was 9.3 feet for the Crouch Branch aquifer and 8.6 feet for the McQueen Branch aquifer. The calibrated groundwater-flow model was then used to calculate groundwater budgets for the entire study area and for two sub-areas. The sub-areas are the Alligator Rural Water and Sewer Company well field near McBee, South Carolina, and the Carolina Sandhills National Wildlife Refuge acquisition boundary area. For the overall model area, recharge rates vary from 56 to 1,679 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) with a mean of 737 Mgal/d over the simulation period (1900–2012). The simulated water budget for the streams and rivers varies from 653 to 1,127 Mgal/d with a mean of 944 Mgal/d. The simulated “storage-in term” ranges from 0 to 565 Mgal/d with a mean of 276 Mgal/d. The simulated “storage-out term” has a range of 0 to 552 Mgal/d with a mean of 77 Mgal/d. Groundwater budgets for the McBee, South Carolina, area and the Carolina Sandhills National Wildlife Refuge acquisition area had similar results. An analysis of the effects of past and current groundwater withdrawals on base flows in the McBee area indicated a negligible effect of pumping from the Alligator Rural Water and Sewer well field on local stream base flows. Simulate base flows for 2012 for selected streams in and around the McBee area were similar with and without simulated groundwater withdrawals from the well field. Removing all pumping from the model for the entire simulation period (1900–2012) produces a negligible difference in increased base flow for the selected streams. The 2012 flow for Lower Alligator Creek was 5.04 Mgal/d with the wells pumping and 5.08 Mgal/d without the wells pumping; this represents the largest difference in simulated flows for the six streams.

VS2DI: Model use, calibration, and validation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, Richard W.; Essaid, Hedeff I.

2012-01-01

VS2DI is a software package for simulating water, solute, and heat transport through soils or other porous media under conditions of variable saturation. The package contains a graphical preprocessor for constructing simulations, a postprocessor for displaying simulation results, and numerical models that solve for flow and solute transport (VS2DT) and flow and heat transport (VS2DH). Flow is described by the Richards equation, and solute and heat transport are described by advection-dispersion equations; the finite-difference method is used to solve these equations. Problems can be simulated in one, two, or three (assuming radial symmetry) dimensions. This article provides an overview of calibration techniques that have been used with VS2DI; included is a detailed description of calibration procedures used in simulating the interaction between groundwater and a stream fed by drainage from agricultural fields in central Indiana. Brief descriptions of VS2DI and the various types of problems that have been addressed with the software package are also presented.

Automatically calibrating admittances in KATE's autonomous launch operations model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morgan, Steve

1992-01-01

This report documents a 1000-line Symbolics LISP program that automatically calibrates all 15 fluid admittances in KATE's Autonomous Launch Operations (ALO) model. (KATE is Kennedy Space Center's Knowledge-based Autonomous Test Engineer, a diagnosis and repair expert system created for use on the Space Shuttle's various fluid flow systems.) As a new KATE application, the calibrator described here breaks new ground for KSC's Artificial Intelligence Lab by allowing KATE to both control and measure the hardware she supervises. By automating a formerly manual process, the calibrator: (1) saves the ALO model builder untold amounts of labor; (2) enables quick repairs after workmen accidently adjust ALO's hand valves; and (3) frees the modeler to pursue new KATE applications that previously were too complicated. Also reported are suggestions for enhancing the program: (1) to calibrate ALO's TV cameras, pumps, and sensor tolerances; and (2) to calibrate devices in other KATE models, such as the shuttle's LOX and Environment Control System (ECS).

Development and calibration of a ground-water flow model for the Sparta Aquifer of southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana and simulated response to withdrawals, 1998-2027

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKee, Paul W.; Clark, Brian R.

2003-01-01

The Sparta aquifer, which consists of the Sparta Sand, in southeastern Arkansas and north-central Louisiana is a major water resource and provides water for municipal, industrial, and agricultural uses. In recent years, the demand in some areas has resulted in withdrawals from the Sparta aquifer that substantially exceed replenishment of the aquifer. Considerable drawdown has occurred in the potentiometric surface forming regional cones of depression as water is removed from storage by withdrawals. These cones of depression are centered beneath the Grand Prairie area and the cities of Pine Bluff and El Dorado in Arkansas, and Monroe in Louisiana. The rate of decline for hydraulic heads in the aquifer has been greater than 1 foot per year for more than a decade in much of southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana where hydraulic heads are now below the top of the Sparta Sand. Continued hydraulic-head declines have caused water users and managers alike to question the ability of the aquifer to supply water for the long term. Concern over protecting the Sparta aquifer as a sustainable resource has resulted in a continued, cooperative effort by the Arkansas Soil and Water Conservation Commission, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Geological Survey to develop, maintain, and utilize numerical ground-water flow models to manage and further analyze the ground-water system. The work presented in this report describes the development and calibration of a ground-water flow model representing the Sparta aquifer to simulate observed hydraulic heads, documents major differences in the current Sparta model compared to the previous Sparta model calibrated in the mid-1980's, and presents the results of three hypothetical future withdrawal scenarios. The current Sparta model-a regional scale, three-dimensional numerical ground-water flow model-was constructed and calibrated using available hydrogeologic, hydraulic, and water-use data from 1898 to 1997. Significant changes from the previous model include grid rediscretization of the aquifer, extension of the active model area northward beyond the Cane River Formation facies change, and representation of model boundaries. The current model was calibrated with the aid of parameter estimation, a nonlinear regression technique, combined with trial and error parameter adjustment using a total of 795 observations from 316 wells over 4 different years-1970, 1985, 1990, and 1997. The calibration data set provides broad spatial and temporal coverage of aquifer conditions. Analysis of the residual statistics, spatial distribution of residuals, simulated compared to observed hydrographs, and simulated compared to observed potentiometric surfaces were used to analyze the ability of the calibrated model to simulate aquifer conditions within acceptable error. The calibrated model has a root mean square error of 18 feet for all observations, an improvement of more than 12 feet from the previous model. The current Sparta model was used to predict the effects of three hypothetical withdrawal scenarios on hydraulic heads over the period 1998-2027 with one of those extended indefinitely until equilibrium conditions were attained, or steady state. In scenario 1a, withdrawals representing the time period from 1990 to 1997 was held constant for 30 years from 1998 to 2027. Hydraulic heads in the middle of the cone of depression centered on El Dorado decreased by 10 feet from the 1997 simulation to 222 feet below NGVD of 1929 in 2027. Hydraulic heads in the Pine Bluff cone of depression showed a greater decline from 61 feet below NGVD of 1929 to 78 feet below NGVD of 1929 in the center of the cone. With these same withdrawals extended to steady state (scenario 1b), hydraulic heads in the Pine Bluff cone of depression center declined an 2 Development and Calibration of a Ground-Water Flow Model for the Sparta Aquifer of Southeastern Arkansas and North-Central Louisiana and Simulated Response to Withdrawa

KINEROS2-AGWA: Model Use, Calibration, and Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodrich, D C.; Burns, I. S.; Unkrich, C. L.; Semmens, D. J.; Guertin, D. P.; Hernandez, M.; Yatheendradas, S.; Kennedy, J. R.; Levick, L. R..

2013-01-01

KINEROS (KINematic runoff and EROSion) originated in the 1960s as a distributed event-based model that conceptualizes a watershed as a cascade of overland flow model elements that flow into trapezoidal channel model elements. KINEROS was one of the first widely available watershed models that interactively coupled a finite difference approximation of the kinematic overland flow equations to a physically based infiltration model. Development and improvement of KINEROS continued from the 1960s on a variety of projects for a range of purposes, which has resulted in a suite of KINEROS-based modeling tools. This article focuses on KINEROS2 (K2), a spatially distributed, event-based watershed rainfall-runoff and erosion model, and the companion ArcGIS-based Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. AGWA automates the time-consuming tasks of watershed delineation into distributed model elements and initial parameterization of these elements using commonly available, national GIS data layers. A variety of approaches have been used to calibrate and validate K2 successfully across a relatively broad range of applications (e.g., urbanization, pre- and post-fire, hillslope erosion, erosion from roads, runoff and recharge, and manure transport). The case studies presented in this article (1) compare lumped to stepwise calibration and validation of runoff and sediment at plot, hillslope, and small watershed scales; and (2) demonstrate an uncalibrated application to address relative change in watershed response to wildfire.

KINEROS2/AGWA: Model use, calibration and validation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goodrich, D.C.; Burns, I.S.; Unkrich, C.L.; Semmens, Darius J.; Guertin, D.P.; Hernandez, M.; Yatheendradas, S.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Levick, Lainie R.

2012-01-01

KINEROS (KINematic runoff and EROSion) originated in the 1960s as a distributed event-based model that conceptualizes a watershed as a cascade of overland flow model elements that flow into trapezoidal channel model elements. KINEROS was one of the first widely available watershed models that interactively coupled a finite difference approximation of the kinematic overland flow equations to a physically based infiltration model. Development and improvement of KINEROS continued from the 1960s on a variety of projects for a range of purposes, which has resulted in a suite of KINEROS-based modeling tools. This article focuses on KINEROS2 (K2), a spatially distributed, event-based watershed rainfall-runoff and erosion model, and the companion ArcGIS-based Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. AGWA automates the time-consuming tasks of watershed delineation into distributed model elements and initial parameterization of these elements using commonly available, national GIS data layers. A variety of approaches have been used to calibrate and validate K2 successfully across a relatively broad range of applications (e.g., urbanization, pre- and post-fire, hillslope erosion, erosion from roads, runoff and recharge, and manure transport). The case studies presented in this article (1) compare lumped to stepwise calibration and validation of runoff and sediment at plot, hillslope, and small watershed scales; and (2) demonstrate an uncalibrated application to address relative change in watershed response to wildfire.

Hydrogeology and flow of water in a sand and gravel aquifer contaminated by wood-preserving compounds, Pensacola, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franks, B.J.

1988-01-01

The sand and gravel aquifer in southern Escambia County, Florida , is a typical surficial aquifer composed of quartz sands and gravels interbedded locally with silts and clays. Problems of groundwater contamination from leaking surface impoundments are common in surficial aquifers and are a subject of increasing concern and attention. A potentially widespread contamination problem involves organic chemicals from wood-preserving processes. Because creosote is the most extensively used industrial preservative in the United States, an abandoned wood-treatment plant near Pensacola was chosen for investigation. This report describes the hydrogeology and groundwater flow system of the sand and gravel aquifer near the plant. A three-dimensional simulation of groundwater flow in the aquifer was evaluated under steady-state conditions. The model was calibrated on the basis of observed water levels from January 1986. Calibration criteria included reproducing all water levels within the accuracy of the data (one-half contour interval in most cases). Sensitivity analysis showed that the simulations were most sensitive to recharge and vertical leakance of the confining units between layers 1 and 2, and relatively insensitive to changes in hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity and to other changes in vertical leakance. Applications of the results of the calibrated flow model in evaluation of solute transport may require further discretization of the contaminated area, including more sublayers, than were needed for calibration of the groundwater flow system itself. (USGS)

Operating Characteristics of the Multiple Critical Venturi System and Secondary Calibration Nozzles Used for Weight-Flow Measurements in the Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berrier, B. L.; Leavitt, L. D.; Bangert, L. S.

1985-01-01

An investigation has been conducted in the Langley 16 Foot Transonic Tunnel to determine the weight flow measurement characteristics of a multiple critical Venturi system and the nozzle discharge coefficient characteristics of a series of convergent calibration nozzles. The effects on model discharge coefficient of nozzle throat area, model choke plate open area, nozzle pressure ratio, jet total temperature, and number and combination of operating Venturis were investigated. Tests were conducted at static conditions (tunnel wind off) at nozzle pressure ratios from 1.3 to 7.0.

Calibration of an Unsteady Groundwater Flow Model for a Complex, Strongly Heterogeneous Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, Z. K.; Liao, H.; Li, S. G.; Phanikumar, M. S.; Lusch, D.

2016-12-01

Modeling of groundwater systems characterized by complex three-dimensional structure and heterogeneity remains a significant challenge. Most of today's groundwater models are developed based on relatively simple conceptual representations in favor of model calibratibility. As more complexities are modeled, e.g., by adding more layers and/or zones, or introducing transient processes, more parameters have to be estimated and issues related to ill-posed groundwater problems and non-unique calibration arise. Here, we explore the use of an alternative conceptual representation for groundwater modeling that is fully three-dimensional and can capture complex 3D heterogeneity (both systematic and "random") without over-parameterizing the aquifer system. In particular, we apply Transition Probability (TP) geostatistics on high resolution borehole data from a water well database to characterize the complex 3D geology. Different aquifer material classes, e.g., `AQ' (aquifer material), `MAQ' (marginal aquifer material'), `PCM' (partially confining material), and `CM' (confining material), are simulated, with the hydraulic properties of each material type as tuning parameters during calibration. The TP-based approach is applied to simulate unsteady groundwater flow in a large, complex, and strongly heterogeneous glacial aquifer system in Michigan across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The resulting model is calibrated to observed static water level data over a time span of 50 years. The results show that the TP-based conceptualization enables much more accurate and robust calibration/simulation than that based on conventional deterministic layer/zone based conceptual representations.

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

2013-01-01

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

A Two-length Scale Turbulence Model for Single-phase Multi-fluid Mixing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwarzkopf, J. D.; Livescu, D.; Baltzer, J. R.

2015-09-08

A two-length scale, second moment turbulence model (Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes, RANS) is proposed to capture a wide variety of single-phase flows, spanning from incompressible flows with single fluids and mixtures of different density fluids (variable density flows) to flows over shock waves. The two-length scale model was developed to address an inconsistency present in the single-length scale models, e.g. the inability to match both variable density homogeneous Rayleigh-Taylor turbulence and Rayleigh-Taylor induced turbulence, as well as the inability to match both homogeneous shear and free shear flows. The two-length scale model focuses on separating the decay and transport length scales,more » as the two physical processes are generally different in inhomogeneous turbulence. This allows reasonable comparisons with statistics and spreading rates over such a wide range of turbulent flows using a common set of model coefficients. The specific canonical flows considered for calibrating the model include homogeneous shear, single-phase incompressible shear driven turbulence, variable density homogeneous Rayleigh-Taylor turbulence, Rayleigh-Taylor induced turbulence, and shocked isotropic turbulence. The second moment model shows to compare reasonably well with direct numerical simulations (DNS), experiments, and theory in most cases. The model was then applied to variable density shear layer and shock tube data and shows to be in reasonable agreement with DNS and experiments. Additionally, the importance of using DNS to calibrate and assess RANS type turbulence models is highlighted.« less

Determination of YAV-8B Reaction Control System bleed flow usage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borchers, Paul F.; Moralez, Ernesto, III; Merrick, Vernon K.; Stortz, Michael W.; Eames, David J. H.

1992-01-01

Using a calibrated Rolls-Royce Pegasus engine, total Reaction Control System (RCS) bleed flow rates have been measured on a YAV-8B Harrier during typical short takeoff, transition, hover and vertical landing maneuvers. Using existing aircraft instrumentation and pressure taps located in the RCS ducts, bleed flow rates at each RCS valve were also measured directly during flight and ground tests. These data were compared with the calibrated engine data and with the RCS part of a YAV-8B mathematical model used in piloted simulation at NASA Ames Research Center. Areas of disagreement were small, being confined to the estimation of closed RCS valve leakages and the modeling of the RCS butterfly valve pressure losses.

Parameter Estimation of Computationally Expensive Watershed Models Through Efficient Multi-objective Optimization and Interactive Decision Analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, Taimoor; Shoemaker, Christine

2016-04-01

Watershed model calibration is inherently a multi-criteria problem. Conflicting trade-offs exist between different quantifiable calibration criterions indicating the non-existence of a single optimal parameterization. Hence, many experts prefer a manual approach to calibration where the inherent multi-objective nature of the calibration problem is addressed through an interactive, subjective, time-intensive and complex decision making process. Multi-objective optimization can be used to efficiently identify multiple plausible calibration alternatives and assist calibration experts during the parameter estimation process. However, there are key challenges to the use of multi objective optimization in the parameter estimation process which include: 1) multi-objective optimization usually requires many model simulations, which is difficult for complex simulation models that are computationally expensive; and 2) selection of one from numerous calibration alternatives provided by multi-objective optimization is non-trivial. This study proposes a "Hybrid Automatic Manual Strategy" (HAMS) for watershed model calibration to specifically address the above-mentioned challenges. HAMS employs a 3-stage framework for parameter estimation. Stage 1 incorporates the use of an efficient surrogate multi-objective algorithm, GOMORS, for identification of numerous calibration alternatives within a limited simulation evaluation budget. The novelty of HAMS is embedded in Stages 2 and 3 where an interactive visual and metric based analytics framework is available as a decision support tool to choose a single calibration from the numerous alternatives identified in Stage 1. Stage 2 of HAMS provides a goodness-of-fit measure / metric based interactive framework for identification of a small subset (typically less than 10) of meaningful and diverse set of calibration alternatives from the numerous alternatives obtained in Stage 1. Stage 3 incorporates the use of an interactive visual analytics framework for decision support in selection of one parameter combination from the alternatives identified in Stage 2. HAMS is applied for calibration of flow parameters of a SWAT model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) designed to simulate flow in the Cannonsville watershed in upstate New York. Results from the application of HAMS to Cannonsville indicate that efficient multi-objective optimization and interactive visual and metric based analytics can bridge the gap between the effective use of both automatic and manual strategies for parameter estimation of computationally expensive watershed models.

Recent modifications and calibration of the Langley low-turbulence pressure tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcghee, R. J.; Beasley, W. D.; Foster, J. M.

1984-01-01

Modifications to the Langley Low-Turbulence Pressure Tunnel are presented and a calibration of the mean flow parameters in the test section is provided. Also included are the operational capability of the tunnel and typical test results for both single-element and multi-element airfoils. Modifications to the facility consisted of the following: replacement of the original cooling coils and antiturbulence screens and addition of a tunnel-shell heating system, a two dimensional model-support and force-balance system, a sidewall boundary layer control system, a remote-controlled survey apparatus, and a new data acquisition system. A calibration of the mean flow parameters in the test section was conducted over the complete operational range of the tunnel. The calibration included dynamic-pressure measurements, Mach number distributions, flow-angularity measurements, boundary-layer characteristics, and total-pressure profiles. In addition, test-section turbulence measurements made after the tunnel modifications have been included with these calibration data to show a comparison of existing turbulence levels with data obtained for the facility in 1941 with the original screen installation.

Delineating saturated conduit patterns and dimensions in the upper Floridan aquifer through numerical groundwater flow modeling (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kincaid, T. R.; Meyer, B. A.

2009-12-01

In groundwater flow modeling, aquifer permeability is typically defined through model calibration. Since the pattern and size of conduits are part of a karstic permeability framework, those parameters should be constrainable through the same process given a sufficient density of measured conditions. H2H Associates has completed a dual-permeability steady-state model of groundwater flow through the western Santa Fe River Basin, Florida from which a 380.9 km network of saturated conduits was delineated through model calibration to heads and spring discharges. Two calibration datasets were compiled describing average high-water and average low-water conditions based on heads at 145 wells and discharge from 18 springs for the high-water scenario and heads at 188 wells and discharge from 9 springs for the low-water scenario. An initial conduit network was defined by assigning paths along mapped conduits and inferring paths along potentiometric troughs between springs and swallets that had been connected by groundwater tracing. These initial conduit assignments accounted for only 13.75 and 34.1 km of the final conduit network respectively. The model was setup using FEFLOW™ where conduits were described as discrete features embedded in a porous matrix. Flow in the conduits was described by the Manning-Strickler equation where variables for conduit area and roughness were used to adjust the volume and velocity of spring flows. Matrix flow was described by Darcy’s law where hydraulic conductivity variations were limited to three geologically defined internally homogeneous zones that ranged from ~2E-6 m/s to ~4E-3 m/s. Recharge for both the high-water and low-water periods was determined through a water budget analysis where variations were restricted to nine zones defined by land-use. All remaining variations in observed head were then assumed to be due to conduits. The model was iteratively calibrated to the high-water and low-water datasets wherein the location, size and roughness of the conduits were assigned as needed to accurately simulate observed heads and spring discharges while bounding simulated velocities by the tracer test results. Conduit diameters were adjusted to support high-water spring discharges but the locations were best determined by calibration to the low-water head field. The final model calibrated to within 5% of the total head change across the model region at 143 of the 145 wells in the high-water scenario and at 176 of the 188 wells in the low-water scenario. Simulated spring discharges fell within 13% of the observed range under high-water conditions and to within 100% of the observed range under low-water conditions. Simulated velocities ranged from as low as 10-4 m/day in the matrix to as high as 10+3 m/day in the largest conduits. The significance of these results that we emphasize here is two-fold. First, plausible karstic groundwater flow conditions can be reasonably simulated if adequate efforts are made to include springs, swallets, caves, and traced flow paths. And second, detailed saturated conduit networks can be delineated from careful evaluation of hydraulic head data particularly when dense datasets can be constructed by correlating values obtained from different wells under similar hydraulic periods.

Hyporheic flow patterns in relation to large river floodplain attributes

EPA Science Inventory

Field-calibrated models of hyporheic flow have emphasized low-order headwater systems. In many cases, however, hyporheic flow in large lowland river floodplains may be an important contributor to ecosystem services such as maintenance of water quality and habitat. In this study, ...

Hyporheic flow patterns in relation to large river floodplain attributes Journal

EPA Science Inventory

Field-calibrated models of hyporheic flow have emphasized low-order headwater systems. In many cases, however, hyporheic flow in large lowland river floodplains may be an important contributor to ecosystem services such as maintenance of water quality and habitat. In this study, ...

A New Reynolds Stress Algebraic Equation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Tsan-Hsing; Zhu, Jiang; Lumley, John L.

1994-01-01

A general turbulent constitutive relation is directly applied to propose a new Reynolds stress algebraic equation model. In the development of this model, the constraints based on rapid distortion theory and realizability (i.e. the positivity of the normal Reynolds stresses and the Schwarz' inequality between turbulent velocity correlations) are imposed. Model coefficients are calibrated using well-studied basic flows such as homogeneous shear flow and the surface flow in the inertial sublayer. The performance of this model is then tested in complex turbulent flows including the separated flow over a backward-facing step and the flow in a confined jet. The calculation results are encouraging and point to the success of the present model in modeling turbulent flows with complex geometries.

The NASA Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel: Historical Overview, Facility Description, Calibration, Flow Characteristics, and Test Capabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Capone, Francis J.; Bangert, Linda S.; Asbury, Scott C.; Mills, Charles T. L.; Bare, E. Ann

1995-01-01

The Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel is a closed-circuit single-return atmospheric wind tunnel that has a slotted octagonal test section with continuous air exchange. The wind tunnel speed can be varied continuously over a Mach number range from 0.1 to 1.3. Test-section plenum suction is used for speeds above a Mach number of 1.05. Over a period of some 40 years, the wind tunnel has undergone many modifications. During the modifications completed in 1990, a new model support system that increased blockage, new fan blades, a catcher screen for the first set of turning vanes, and process controllers for tunnel speed, model attitude, and jet flow for powered models were installed. This report presents a complete description of the Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel and auxiliary equipment, the calibration procedures, and the results of the 1977 and the 1990 wind tunnel calibration with test section air removal. Comparisons with previous calibrations showed that the modifications made to the wind tunnel had little or no effect on the aerodynamic characteristics of the tunnel. Information required for planning experimental investigations and the use of test hardware and model support systems is also provided.

The effect of inclusion of inlets in dual drainage modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Tsang-Jung; Wang, Chia-Ho; Chen, Albert S.; Djordjević, Slobodan

2018-04-01

In coupled sewer and surface flood modelling approaches, the flow process in gullies is often ignored although the overland flow is drained to sewer network via inlets and gullies. Therefore, the flow entering inlets is transferred to the sewer network immediately, which may lead to a different flood estimation than the reality. In this paper, we compared two modelling approach with and without considering the flow processes in gullies in the coupled sewer and surface modelling. Three historical flood events were adopted for model calibration and validation. The results showed that the inclusion of flow process in gullies can further improve the accuracy of urban flood modelling.

Regional flow in a complex coastal aquifer system: Combining voxel geological modelling with regularized calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Rena; Engesgaard, Peter; Høyer, Anne-Sophie; Jørgensen, Flemming; Vignoli, Giulio; Sonnenborg, Torben O.

2018-07-01

Low-lying coastal regions are often highly populated, constitute sensitive habitats and are at the same time exposed to challenging hydrological environments due to surface flooding from storm events and saltwater intrusion, which both may affect drinking water supply from shallow and deeper aquifers. Near the Wadden Sea at the border of Southern Denmark and Northern Germany, the hydraulic system (connecting groundwater, river water, and the sea) was altered over centuries (until the 19th century) by e.g. the construction of dikes and drains to prevent flooding and allow agricultural use. Today, massive saltwater intrusions extend up to 20 km inland. In order to understand the regional flow, a methodological approach was developed that combined: (1) a highly-resolved voxel geological model, (2) a ∼1 million node groundwater model with 46 hydrofacies coupled to rivers, drains and the sea, (3) Tikhonov regularization calibration using hydraulic heads and average stream discharges as targets and (4) parameter uncertainty analysis. It is relatively new to use voxel models for constructing geological models that often have been simplified to stacked, pseudo-3D layer geology. The study is therefore one of the first to combine a voxel geological model with state-of-the-art flow calibration techniques. The results show that voxel geological modelling, where lithofacies information are transferred to each volumetric element, is a useful method to preserve 3D geological heterogeneity on a local scale, which is important when distinct geological features such as buried valleys are abundant. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that simpler geological models and simpler calibration methods do not perform as well. The proposed approach is applicable to many other systems, because it combines advanced and flexible geological modelling and flow calibration techniques. This has led to new insights in the regional flow patterns and especially about water cycling in the marsh area near the coast based on the ability to define six predictive scenarios from the linear analysis of parameter uncertainty. The results show that the coastal system near the Danish-German border is mainly controlled by flow in the two aquifers separated by a thick clay layer, and several deep high-permeable buried valleys that connect the sea with the interior and the two aquifers. The drained marsh area acts like a huge regional sink limiting submarine groundwater discharge. With respect to water balance, the greatest sensitivity to parameter uncertainty was observed in the drained marsh area, where some scenarios showed increased flow of sea water into the interior and increased drainage. We speculate that the massive salt water intrusion may be caused by a combination of the preferential pathways provided by the buried valleys, the marsh drainage and relatively high hydraulic conductivities in the two main aquifers as described by one of the scenarios. This is currently under investigation by using a salt water transport model.

Conceptual Model Evaluation using Advanced Parameter Estimation Techniques with Heat as a Tracer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naranjo, R. C.; Morway, E. D.; Healy, R. W.

2016-12-01

Temperature measurements made at multiple depths beneath the sediment-water interface has proven useful for estimating seepage rates from surface-water channels and corresponding subsurface flow direction. Commonly, parsimonious zonal representations of the subsurface structure are defined a priori by interpretation of temperature envelopes, slug tests or analysis of soil cores. However, combining multiple observations into a single zone may limit the inverse model solution and does not take full advantage of the information content within the measured data. Further, simulating the correct thermal gradient, flow paths, and transient behavior of solutes may be biased by inadequacies in the spatial description of subsurface hydraulic properties. The use of pilot points in PEST offers a more sophisticated approach to estimate the structure of subsurface heterogeneity. This presentation evaluates seepage estimation in a cross-sectional model of a trapezoidal canal with intermittent flow representing four typical sedimentary environments. The recent improvements in heat as a tracer measurement techniques (i.e. multi-depth temperature probe) along with use of modern calibration techniques (i.e., pilot points) provides opportunities for improved calibration of flow models, and, subsequently, improved model predictions.

Predicting nitrate discharge dynamics in mesoscale catchments using the lumped StreamGEM model and Bayesian parameter inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, Simon James Roy; Wöhling, Thomas; Rode, Michael; Stenger, Roland

2017-09-01

The common practice of infrequent (e.g., monthly) stream water quality sampling for state of the environment monitoring may, when combined with high resolution stream flow data, provide sufficient information to accurately characterise the dominant nutrient transfer pathways and predict annual catchment yields. In the proposed approach, we use the spatially lumped catchment model StreamGEM to predict daily stream flow and nitrate concentration (mg L-1 NO3-N) in four contrasting mesoscale headwater catchments based on four years of daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and stream flow measurements, and monthly or daily nitrate concentrations. Posterior model parameter distributions were estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling code DREAMZS and a log-likelihood function assuming heteroscedastic, t-distributed residuals. Despite high uncertainty in some model parameters, the flow and nitrate calibration data was well reproduced across all catchments (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency against Log transformed data, NSL, in the range 0.62-0.83 for daily flow and 0.17-0.88 for nitrate concentration). The slight increase in the size of the residuals for a separate validation period was considered acceptable (NSL in the range 0.60-0.89 for daily flow and 0.10-0.74 for nitrate concentration, excluding one data set with limited validation data). Proportions of flow and nitrate discharge attributed to near-surface, fast seasonal groundwater and slow deeper groundwater were consistent with expectations based on catchment geology. The results for the Weida Stream in Thuringia, Germany, using monthly as opposed to daily nitrate data were, for all intents and purposes, identical, suggesting that four years of monthly nitrate sampling provides sufficient information for calibration of the StreamGEM model and prediction of catchment dynamics. This study highlights the remarkable effectiveness of process based, spatially lumped modelling with commonly available monthly stream sample data, to elucidate high resolution catchment function, when appropriate calibration methods are used that correctly handle the inherent uncertainties.

Regionalisation of parameters of a large-scale water quality model in Lithuania using PAIC-SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarrineh, Nina; van Griensven, Ann; Sennikovs, Juris; Bekere, Liga; Plunge, Svajunas

2015-04-01

To comply with the EU Water Framework Directive, all water bodies need to achieve good ecological status. To reach these goals, the Environmental Protection Agency (AAA) has to elaborate river basin districts management plans and programmes of measures for all catchments in Lithuania. For this purpose, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was set up for all Lithuanian catchments using the most recent version of SWAT2012 rev627 implemented and imbedded in a Python workflow by the Center of Processes Analysis and Research (PAIC). The model was calibrated and evaluated using all monitoring data of river discharge, nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations and load. A regionalisation strategy has been set up by identifying 13 hydrological regions according to the runoff formation and hydrological conditions. In each region, a representative catchment was selected and calibrated using a combination of manual and automated calibration techniques. After final parameterization and fulfilling of calibrating and validating evaluation criteria, the same parameters sets have been extrapolated to other catchments within the same hydrological region. Multi variable cal/val strategy was implemented for the following variables: river flow and in-stream NO3, Total Nitrogen, PO4 and Total Phosphorous concentrations. The criteria used for calibration, validation and extrapolation are: Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) for flow and R-squared for water quality variables and PBIAS (percentage bias) for all variables. For the hydrological calibration, NSE values greater than 0.5 should be achieved, while for validation and extrapolation the threshold is respectively 0.4 and 0.3. PBIAS errors have to be less than 20% for calibration and for validation and extrapolation less than 25% and 30%, respectively. In water quality calibration, R-squared should be achieved to 0.5 for calibration and for validation and extrapolation to 0.4 and 0.3 respectively for nitrogen variables. Besides PBIAS error should be less than 40% for calibration, and less than 70% for validation and extrapolation for all mentioned water quality variables. For the flow calibration, daily discharge data for 62 stations were provided for the period 1997-2012. For more than 500 stations, water quality data was provided and 135 data-rich stations was pre-processed in a database containing all observations from 1997-2012. Finally by implementing this regionalisation strategy, the model could satisfactorily predict the selected variables so that in the hydrological part more than 90% of stations fulfilled the criteria and in the water quality part more than 95% of stations fulfilled the criteria. Keywords: Water Quality Modelling, Regionalisation, Parameterization, Nitrogen and Phosphorus Prediction, Calibration, PAIC-SWAT.

Knowing requires data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Naranjo, Ramon C.

2017-01-01

Groundwater-flow models are often calibrated using a limited number of observations relative to the unknown inputs required for the model. This is especially true for models that simulate groundwater surface-water interactions. In this case, subsurface temperature sensors can be an efficient means for collecting long-term data that capture the transient nature of physical processes such as seepage losses. Continuous and spatially dense network of diverse observation data can be used to improve knowledge of important physical drivers, conceptualize and calibrate variably saturated groundwater flow models. An example is presented for which the results of such analysis were used to help guide irrigation districts and water management decisions on costly upgrades to conveyance systems to improve water usage, farm productivity and restoration efforts to improve downstream water quality and ecosystems.

Identifying Hydrogeological Controls of Catchment Low-Flow Dynamics Using Physically Based Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cochand, F.; Carlier, C.; Staudinger, M.; Seibert, J.; Hunkeler, D.; Brunner, P.

2017-12-01

Identifying key catchment characteristics and processes which control the hydrological response under low-flow conditions is important to assess the catchments' vulnerability to dry periods. In the context of a Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN) project, the low-flow behaviours of two mountainous catchments were investigated. These neighboring catchments are characterized by the same meteorological conditions, but feature completely different river flow dynamics. The Roethenbach is characterized by high peak flows and low mean flows. Conversely, the Langete is characterized by relatively low peak flows and high mean flow rates. To understand the fundamentally different behaviour of the two catchments, a physically-based surface-subsurface flow HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model for each catchment was developed. The main advantage of a physically-based model is its ability to realistically reproduce processes which play a key role during low-flow periods such as surface-subsurface interactions or evapotranspiration. Both models were calibrated to reproduce measured groundwater heads and the surface flow dynamics. Subsequently, the calibrated models were used to explore the fundamental physics that control hydrological processes during low-flow periods. To achieve this, a comparative sensitivity analysis of model parameters of both catchments was carried out. Results show that the hydraulic conductivity of the bedrock (and weathered bedrock) controls the catchment water dynamics in both models. Conversely, the properties of other geological formations such as alluvial aquifer or soil layer hydraulic conductivity or porosity play a less important role. These results change significantly our perception of the streamflow catchment dynamics and more specifically the way to assess catchment vulnerability to dry period. This study suggests that by analysing catchment scale bedrock properties, the catchment dynamics and the vulnerability to dry period may be assessed.

Inverse models: A necessary next step in ground-water modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poeter, E.P.; Hill, M.C.

1997-01-01

Inverse models using, for example, nonlinear least-squares regression, provide capabilities that help modelers take full advantage of the insight available from ground-water models. However, lack of information about the requirements and benefits of inverse models is an obstacle to their widespread use. This paper presents a simple ground-water flow problem to illustrate the requirements and benefits of the nonlinear least-squares repression method of inverse modeling and discusses how these attributes apply to field problems. The benefits of inverse modeling include: (1) expedited determination of best fit parameter values; (2) quantification of the (a) quality of calibration, (b) data shortcomings and needs, and (c) confidence limits on parameter estimates and predictions; and (3) identification of issues that are easily overlooked during nonautomated calibration.Inverse models using, for example, nonlinear least-squares regression, provide capabilities that help modelers take full advantage of the insight available from ground-water models. However, lack of information about the requirements and benefits of inverse models is an obstacle to their widespread use. This paper presents a simple ground-water flow problem to illustrate the requirements and benefits of the nonlinear least-squares regression method of inverse modeling and discusses how these attributes apply to field problems. The benefits of inverse modeling include: (1) expedited determination of best fit parameter values; (2) quantification of the (a) quality of calibration, (b) data shortcomings and needs, and (c) confidence limits on parameter estimates and predictions; and (3) identification of issues that are easily overlooked during nonautomated calibration.

Accounting for temporal variation in soil hydrological properties when simulating surface runoff on tilled plots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chahinian, Nanée; Moussa, Roger; Andrieux, Patrick; Voltz, Marc

2006-07-01

Tillage operations are known to greatly influence local overland flow, infiltration and depressional storage by altering soil hydraulic properties and soil surface roughness. The calibration of runoff models for tilled fields is not identical to that of untilled fields, as it has to take into consideration the temporal variability of parameters due to the transient nature of surface crusts. In this paper, we seek the application of a rainfall-runoff model and the development of a calibration methodology to take into account the impact of tillage on overland flow simulation at the scale of a tilled plot (3240 m 2) located in southern France. The selected model couples the (Morel-Seytoux, H.J., 1978. Derivation of equations for variable rainfall infiltration. Water Resources Research. 14(4), 561-568). Infiltration equation to a transfer function based on the diffusive wave equation. The parameters to be calibrated are the hydraulic conductivity at natural saturation Ks, the surface detention Sd and the lag time ω. A two-step calibration procedure is presented. First, eleven rainfall-runoff events are calibrated individually and the variability of the calibrated parameters are analysed. The individually calibrated Ks values decrease monotonously according to the total amount of rainfall since tillage. No clear relationship is observed between the two parameters Sd and ω, and the date of tillage. However, the lag time ω increases inversely with the peakflow of the events. Fairly good agreement is observed between the simulated and measured hydrographs of the calibration set. Simple mathematical laws describing the evolution of Ks and ω are selected, while Sd is considered constant. The second step involves the collective calibration of the law of evolution of each parameter on the whole calibration set. This procedure is calibrated on 11 events and validated on ten runoff inducing and four non-runoff inducing rainfall events. The suggested calibration methodology seems robust and can be transposed to other gauged sites.

Description and Evaluation of Numerical Groundwater Flow Models for the Edwards Aquifer, South-Central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindgren, Richard J.; Taylor, Charles J.; Houston, Natalie A.

2009-01-01

A substantial number of public water system wells in south-central Texas withdraw groundwater from the karstic, highly productive Edwards aquifer. However, the use of numerical groundwater flow models to aid in the delineation of contributing areas for public water system wells in the Edwards aquifer is problematic because of the complex hydrogeologic framework and the presence of conduit-dominated flow paths in the aquifer. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, evaluated six published numerical groundwater flow models (all deterministic) that have been developed for the Edwards aquifer San Antonio segment or Barton Springs segment, or both. This report describes the models developed and evaluates each with respect to accessibility and ease of use, range of conditions simulated, accuracy of simulations, agreement with dye-tracer tests, and limitations of the models. These models are (1) GWSIM model of the San Antonio segment, a FORTRAN computer-model code that pre-dates the development of MODFLOW; (2) MODFLOW conduit-flow model of San Antonio and Barton Springs segments; (3) MODFLOW diffuse-flow model of San Antonio and Barton Springs segments; (4) MODFLOW Groundwater Availability Modeling [GAM] model of the Barton Springs segment; (5) MODFLOW recalibrated GAM model of the Barton Springs segment; and (6) MODFLOW-DCM (dual conductivity model) conduit model of the Barton Springs segment. The GWSIM model code is not commercially available, is limited in its application to the San Antonio segment of the Edwards aquifer, and lacks the ability of MODFLOW to easily incorporate newly developed processes and packages to better simulate hydrologic processes. MODFLOW is a widely used and tested code for numerical modeling of groundwater flow, is well documented, and is in the public domain. These attributes make MODFLOW a preferred code with regard to accessibility and ease of use. The MODFLOW conduit-flow model incorporates improvements over previous models by using (1) a user-friendly interface, (2) updated computer codes (MODFLOW-96 and MODFLOW-2000), (3) a finer grid resolution, (4) less-restrictive boundary conditions, (5) an improved discretization of hydraulic conductivity, (6) more accurate estimates of pumping stresses, (7) a long transient simulation period (54 years, 1947-2000), and (8) a refined representation of high-permeability zones or conduits. All of the models except the MODFLOW-DCM conduit model have limitations resulting from the use of Darcy's law to simulate groundwater flow in a karst aquifer system where non-Darcian, turbulent flow might actually dominate. The MODFLOW-DCM conduit model is an improvement in the ability to simulate karst-like flow conditions in conjunction with porous-media-type matrix flow. However, the MODFLOW-DCM conduit model has had limited application and testing and currently (2008) lacks commercially available pre- and post-processors. The MODFLOW conduit-flow and diffuse-flow Edwards aquifer models are limited by the lack of calibration for the northern part of the Barton Springs segment (Travis County) and their reliance on the use of the calibrated hydraulic conductivity and storativity values from the calibrated Barton Springs segment GAM model. The major limitation of the Barton Springs segment GAM and recalibrated GAM models is that they were calibrated to match measured water levels and springflows for a restrictive range of hydrologic conditions, with each model having different hydraulic conductivity and storativity values appropriate to the hydrologic conditions that were simulated. The need for two different sets of hydraulic conductivity and storativity values increases the uncertainty associated with the accuracy of either set of values, illustrates the non-uniqueness of the model solution, and probably most importantly demonstrates the limitations of using a one-layer model to represent the heterogeneous hydrostratigraph

Unconfined aquifer response to infiltration basins and shallow pump tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostendorf, David W.; DeGroot, Don J.; Hinlein, Erich S.

2007-05-01

SummaryWe measure and model the unsteady, axisymmetric response of an unconfined aquifer to delayed, arbitrary recharge. Water table drainage follows the initial elastic aquifer response, as modeled for uniform, instantaneous recharge by Zlotnik and Ledder [Zlotnik, V., Ledder, G., 1992. Groundwater flow in a compressible unconfined aquifer with uniform circular recharge. Water Resources Research 28(6), 1619-1630] and delayed drainage by Moench [Moench, A.F., 1995. Combining the Neuman and Boulton models for flow to a well in an unconfined aquifer. Ground Water 33(3), 378-384]. We extend their analyses with a convolution integral that models the delayed response of an aquifer to infiltration from a circular infiltration basin. The basin routes the hydrograph to the water table with a decay constant dependent on a Brooks and Corey [Brooks, R.H., Corey, A.T., 1966. Properties of porous media affecting fluid flow. Journal of the Irrigation and Drainage Division ASCE 92(2), 61-88] unsaturated permeability exponent. The resulting closed form model approaches Neuman's [Neuman, S.P., 1972. Theory of flow in unconfined aquifers considering delayed response of the water table. Water Resources Research 8(4), 1031-1045] partially penetrating pump test equation for a small source radius, instantaneous, uniform drainage and a shallow screen section. Irrigation pump data at a well characterized part of the Plymouth-Carver Aquifer in southeastern Massachusetts calibrate the small source model, while infiltration data from the closed drainage system of State Route 25 calibrate the infiltration basin model. The calibrated permeability, elasticity, specific yield, and permeability exponent are plausible and consistent for the pump and infiltration data sets.

Model calibration and issues related to validation, sensitivity analysis, post-audit, uncertainty evaluation and assessment of prediction data needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, Claire; Hill, Mary C.

2007-01-01

When simulating natural and engineered groundwater flow and transport systems, one objective is to produce a model that accurately represents important aspects of the true system. However, using direct measurements of system characteristics, such as hydraulic conductivity, to construct a model often produces simulated values that poorly match observations of the system state, such as hydraulic heads, flows and concentrations (for example, Barth et al., 2001). This occurs because of inaccuracies in the direct measurements and because the measurements commonly characterize system properties at different scales from that of the model aspect to which they are applied. In these circumstances, the conservation of mass equations represented by flow and transport models can be used to test the applicability of the direct measurements, such as by comparing model simulated values to the system state observations. This comparison leads to calibrating the model, by adjusting the model construction and the system properties as represented by model parameter values, so that the model produces simulated values that reasonably match the observations.

The Influence of Preferential Flow on Pressure Propagation and Landslide Triggering of the Rocca Pitigliana Landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, W.; Bogaard, T.; Bakker, M.; Berti, M.; Savenije, H. H. G.

2016-12-01

The fast pore water pressure response to rain events is an important triggering factor for slope instability. The fast pressure response may be caused by preferential flow that bypasses the soil matrix. Currently, most of the hydro-mechanical models simulate pore water pressure using a single-permeability model, which cannot quantify the effects of preferential flow on pressure propagation and landslide triggering. Previous studies showed that a model based on the linear-diffusion equation can simulate the fast pressure propagation in near-saturated landslides such as the Rocca Pitigliana landslide. In such a model, the diffusion coefficient depends on the degree of saturation, which makes it difficult to use the model for predictions. In this study, the influence of preferential flow on pressure propagation and slope stability is investigated with a 1D dual-permeability model coupled with an infinite-slope stability approach. The dual-permeability model uses two modified Darcy-Richards equations to simultaneously simulate the matrix flow and preferential flow in hillslopes. The simulated pressure head is used in an infinite-slope stability analysis to identify the influence of preferential flow on the fast pressure response and landslide triggering. The dual-permeability model simulates the height and arrival of the pressure peak reasonably well. Performance of the dual-permeability model is as good as or better than the linear-diffusion model even though the dual-permeability model is calibrated for two single pulse rain events only, while the linear-diffusion model is calibrated for each rain event separately.

Analyzing the biosensor signal in flows: studies with glucose optrodes.

PubMed

Kivirand, K; Floren, A; Kagan, M; Avarmaa, T; Rinken, T; Jaaniso, R

2015-01-01

Responses of enzymatic bio-optrodes in flow regime were studied and an original model was proposed with the aim of establishing a reliable method for a quick determination of biosensor signal parameters, applicable for biosensor calibration. A dual-optrode glucose biosensor, comprising of a glucose bio-optrode and a reference oxygen optrode, both placed into identical flow channels, was developed and used as a model system. The signal parameters of this biosensor at different substrate concentrations were not dependent on the speed of the probe flow and could be determined from the initial part of the biosensor transient phase signal, providing a valuable tool for rapid analysis. In addition, the model helped to design the biosensor system with reduced impact of enzyme inactivation to the system stability (20% decrease of the enzyme activity lead to only a 1% decrease of the slope of the calibration curve) and hence significantly prolong the effective lifetime of bio-optrodes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity analysis of a multilayer, finite-difference model of the Southeastern Coastal Plain regional aquifer system; Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pernik, Meribeth

1987-01-01

The sensitivity of a multilayer finite-difference regional flow model was tested by changing the calibrated values for five parameters in the steady-state model and one in the transient-state model. The parameters that changed under the steady-state condition were those that had been routinely adjusted during the calibration process as part of the effort to match pre-development potentiometric surfaces, and elements of the water budget. The tested steady-state parameters include: recharge, riverbed conductance, transmissivity, confining unit leakance, and boundary location. In the transient-state model, the storage coefficient was adjusted. The sensitivity of the model to changes in the calibrated values of these parameters was evaluated with respect to the simulated response of net base flow to the rivers, and the mean value of the absolute head residual. To provide a standard measurement of sensitivity from one parameter to another, the standard deviation of the absolute head residual was calculated. The steady-state model was shown to be most sensitive to changes in rates of recharge. When the recharge rate was held constant, the model was more sensitive to variations in transmissivity. Near the rivers, the riverbed conductance becomes the dominant parameter in controlling the heads. Changes in confining unit leakance had little effect on simulated base flow, but greatly affected head residuals. The model was relatively insensitive to changes in the location of no-flow boundaries and to moderate changes in the altitude of constant head boundaries. The storage coefficient was adjusted under transient conditions to illustrate the model 's sensitivity to changes in storativity. The model is less sensitive to an increase in storage coefficient than it is to a decrease in storage coefficient. As the storage coefficient decreased, the aquifer drawdown increases, the base flow decreased. The opposite response occurred when the storage coefficient was increased. (Author 's abstract)

Predicting the performance uncertainty of a 1-MW pilot-scale carbon capture system after hierarchical laboratory-scale calibration and validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Zhijie; Lai, Canhai; Marcy, Peter William

2017-05-01

A challenging problem in designing pilot-scale carbon capture systems is to predict, with uncertainty, the adsorber performance and capture efficiency under various operating conditions where no direct experimental data exist. Motivated by this challenge, we previously proposed a hierarchical framework in which relevant parameters of physical models were sequentially calibrated from different laboratory-scale carbon capture unit (C2U) experiments. Specifically, three models of increasing complexity were identified based on the fundamental physical and chemical processes of the sorbent-based carbon capture technology. Results from the corresponding laboratory experiments were used to statistically calibrate the physical model parameters while quantifying some of theirmore » inherent uncertainty. The parameter distributions obtained from laboratory-scale C2U calibration runs are used in this study to facilitate prediction at a larger scale where no corresponding experimental results are available. In this paper, we first describe the multiphase reactive flow model for a sorbent-based 1-MW carbon capture system then analyze results from an ensemble of simulations with the upscaled model. The simulation results are used to quantify uncertainty regarding the design’s predicted efficiency in carbon capture. In particular, we determine the minimum gas flow rate necessary to achieve 90% capture efficiency with 95% confidence.« less

The Site-Scale Saturated Zone Flow Model for Yucca Mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Aziz, E.; James, S. C.; Arnold, B. W.; Zyvoloski, G. A.

2006-12-01

This presentation provides a reinterpreted conceptual model of the Yucca Mountain site-scale flow system subject to all quality assurance procedures. The results are based on a numerical model of site-scale saturated zone beneath Yucca Mountain, which is used for performance assessment predictions of radionuclide transport and to guide future data collection and modeling activities. This effort started from the ground up with a revised and updated hydrogeologic framework model, which incorporates the latest lithology data, and increased grid resolution that better resolves the hydrogeologic framework, which was updated throughout the model domain. In addition, faults are much better represented using the 250× 250- m2 spacing (compared to the previous model's 500× 500-m2 spacing). Data collected since the previous model calibration effort have been included and they comprise all Nye County water-level data through Phase IV of their Early Warning Drilling Program. Target boundary fluxes are derived from the newest (2004) Death Valley Regional Flow System model from the US Geologic Survey. A consistent weighting scheme assigns importance to each measured water-level datum and boundary flux extracted from the regional model. The numerical model is calibrated by matching these weighted water level measurements and boundary fluxes using parameter estimation techniques, along with more informal comparisons of the model to hydrologic and geochemical information. The model software (hydrologic simulation code FEHM~v2.24 and parameter estimation software PEST~v5.5) and model setup facilitates efficient calibration of multiple conceptual models. Analyses evaluate the impact of these updates and additional data on the modeled potentiometric surface and the flowpaths emanating from below the repository. After examining the heads and permeabilities obtained from the calibrated models, we present particle pathways from the proposed repository and compare them to those from the previous model calibration. Specific discharge at a point 5~km from the repository is also examined and found to be within acceptable uncertainty. The results show that updated model yields a calibration with smaller residuals than the previous model revision while ensuring that flowpaths follow measured gradients and paths derived from hydrochemical analyses. This work was supported by the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Office as part of the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management Program, which is managed by the U.S. Department of Energy, Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project. Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE AC04 94AL85000.

Microbubble Sizing and Shell Characterization Using Flow Cytometry

PubMed Central

Tu, Juan; Swalwell, Jarred E.; Giraud, David; Cui, Weicheng; Chen, Weizhong; Matula, Thomas J.

2015-01-01

Experiments were performed to size, count, and obtain shell parameters for individual ultrasound contrast microbubbles using a modified flow cytometer. Light scattering was modeled using Mie theory, and applied to calibration beads to calibrate the system. The size distribution and population were measured directly from the flow cytometer. The shell parameters (shear modulus and shear viscosity) were quantified at different acoustic pressures (from 95 to 333 kPa) by fitting microbubble response data to a bubble dynamics model. The size distribution of the contrast agent microbubbles is consistent with manufacturer specifications. The shell shear viscosity increases with increasing equilibrium microbubble size, and decreases with increasing shear rate. The observed trends are independent of driving pressure amplitude. The shell elasticity does not vary with microbubble size. The results suggest that a modified flow cytometer can be an effective tool to characterize the physical properties of microbubbles, including size distribution, population, and shell parameters. PMID:21622051

Construction of estimated flow- and load-duration curves for Kentucky using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Unthank, Michael D.; Newson, Jeremy K.; Williamson, Tanja N.; Nelson, Hugh L.

2012-01-01

Flow- and load-duration curves were constructed from the model outputs of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources (WATER) application for streams in Kentucky. The WATER application was designed to access multiple geospatial datasets to generate more than 60 years of statistically based streamflow data for Kentucky. The WATER application enables a user to graphically select a site on a stream and generate an estimated hydrograph and flow-duration curve for the watershed upstream of that point. The flow-duration curves are constructed by calculating the exceedance probability of the modeled daily streamflows. User-defined water-quality criteria and (or) sampling results can be loaded into the WATER application to construct load-duration curves that are based on the modeled streamflow results. Estimates of flow and streamflow statistics were derived from TOPographically Based Hydrological MODEL (TOPMODEL) simulations in the WATER application. A modified TOPMODEL code, SDP-TOPMODEL (Sinkhole Drainage Process-TOPMODEL) was used to simulate daily mean discharges over the period of record for 5 karst and 5 non-karst watersheds in Kentucky in order to verify the calibrated model. A statistical evaluation of the model's verification simulations show that calibration criteria, established by previous WATER application reports, were met thus insuring the model's ability to provide acceptably accurate estimates of discharge at gaged and ungaged sites throughout Kentucky. Flow-duration curves are constructed in the WATER application by calculating the exceedence probability of the modeled daily flow values. The flow-duration intervals are expressed as a percentage, with zero corresponding to the highest stream discharge in the streamflow record. Load-duration curves are constructed by applying the loading equation (Load = Flow*Water-quality criterion) at each flow interval.

Transient Calibration of a Variably-Saturated Groundwater Flow Model By Iterative Ensemble Smoothering: Synthetic Case and Application to the Flow Induced During Shaft Excavation and Operation of the Bure Underground Research Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, D. T.; Kerrou, J.; Benabderrahmane, H.; Perrochet, P.

2017-12-01

The calibration of groundwater flow models in transient state can be motivated by the expected improved characterization of the aquifer hydraulic properties, especially when supported by a rich transient dataset. In the prospect of setting up a calibration strategy for a variably-saturated transient groundwater flow model of the area around the ANDRA's Bure Underground Research Laboratory, we wish to take advantage of the long hydraulic head and flowrate time series collected near and at the access shafts in order to help inform the model hydraulic parameters. A promising inverse approach for such high-dimensional nonlinear model, and which applicability has been illustrated more extensively in other scientific fields, could be an iterative ensemble smoother algorithm initially developed for a reservoir engineering problem. Furthermore, the ensemble-based stochastic framework will allow to address to some extent the uncertainty of the calibration for a subsequent analysis of a flow process dependent prediction. By assimilating the available data in one single step, this method iteratively updates each member of an initial ensemble of stochastic realizations of parameters until the minimization of an objective function. However, as it is well known for ensemble-based Kalman methods, this correction computed from approximations of covariance matrices is most efficient when the ensemble realizations are multi-Gaussian. As shown by the comparison of the updated ensemble mean obtained for our simplified synthetic model of 2D vertical flow by using either multi-Gaussian or multipoint simulations of parameters, the ensemble smoother fails to preserve the initial connectivity of the facies and the parameter bimodal distribution. Given the geological structures depicted by the multi-layered geological model built for the real case, our goal is to find how to still best leverage the performance of the ensemble smoother while using an initial ensemble of conditional multi-Gaussian simulations or multipoint simulations as conceptually consistent as possible. Performance of the algorithm including additional steps to help mitigate the effects of non-Gaussian patterns, such as Gaussian anamorphosis, or resampling of facies from the training image using updated local probability constraints will be assessed.

A review of Reynolds stress models for turbulent shear flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Speziale, Charles G.

1995-01-01

A detailed review of recent developments in Reynolds stress modeling for incompressible turbulent shear flows is provided. The mathematical foundations of both two-equation models and full second-order closures are explored in depth. It is shown how these models can be systematically derived for two-dimensional mean turbulent flows that are close to equilibrium. A variety of examples are provided to demonstrate how well properly calibrated versions of these models perform for such flows. However, substantial problems remain for the description of more complex turbulent flows where there are large departures from equilibrium. Recent efforts to extend Reynolds stress models to nonequilibrium turbulent flows are discussed briefly along with the major modeling issues relevant to practical naval hydrodynamics applications.

Characterizing Flow and Suspended Sediment Trends in the Sacramento River Basin, CA Using Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, M. A.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Wright, S. A.; Minear, J. T.

2014-12-01

A watershed model of the Sacramento River Basin, CA was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) for fifty years (1958-2008) using the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF). To compensate for the large model domain and sparse data, rigorous meteorological development and characterization of hydraulic geometry were employed to spatially distribute climate and hydrologic processes in unmeasured locations. Parameterization techniques sought to include known spatial information for tributaries such as soil information and slope, and then parameters were scaled up or down during calibration to retain the spatial characteristics of the land surface in un-gaged areas. Accuracy was assessed by comparing model calibration to measured streamflow. Calibration and validation of the Sacramento River ranged from "good" to "very good" performance based upon a "goodness-of-fit" statistical guideline. Model calibration to measured sediment loads were underestimated on average by 39% for the Sacramento River, and model calibration to suspended sediment concentrations were underestimated on average by 22% for the Sacramento River. Sediment loads showed a slight decreasing trend from 1958-2008 and was significant (p < 0.0025) in the lower 50% of stream flows. Hypothetical climate change scenarios were developed using the Climate Assessment Tool (CAT). Several wet and dry scenarios coupled with temperature increases were imposed on the historical base conditions to evaluate sensitivity of streamflow and sediment on potential changes in climate. Wet scenarios showed an increase of 9.7 - 17.5% in streamflow, a 7.6 - 17.5% increase in runoff, and a 30 - 93% increase in sediment loads. The dry scenarios showed a roughly 5% decrease in flow and runoff, and a 16 - 18% decrease in sediment loads. The base hydrology was most sensitive to a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius and an increase in storm intensity and frequency. The complete calibrated HSPF model will use future climate scenarios to make projections of potential hydrologic and sediment trends to the SFBD from 2000-2100.

Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.

2018-03-01

This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.

Hydrograph structure informed calibration in the frequency domain with time localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumarasamy, K.; Belmont, P.

2015-12-01

Complex models with large number of parameters are commonly used to estimate sediment yields and predict changes in sediment loads as a result of changes in management or conservation practice at large watershed (>2000 km2) scales. As sediment yield is a strongly non-linear function that responds to channel (peak or mean) velocity or flow depth, it is critical to accurately represent flows. The process of calibration in such models (e.g., SWAT) generally involves the adjustment of several parameters to obtain better estimates of goodness of fit metrics such as Nash Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE). However, such indicators only provide a global view of model performance, potentially obscuring accuracy of the timing or magnitude of specific flows of interest. We describe an approach for streamflow calibration that will greatly reduce the black-box nature of calibration, when response from a parameter adjustment is not clearly known. Fourier Transform or the Short Term Fourier Transform could be used to characterize model performance in the frequency domain as well, however, the ambiguity of a Fourier transform with regards to time localization renders its implementation in a model calibration setting rather useless. Brief and sudden changes (e.g. stream flow peaks) in signals carry the most interesting information from parameter adjustments, which are completely lost in the transform without time localization. Wavelet transform captures the frequency component in the signal without compromising time and is applied to contrast changes in signal response to parameter adjustments. Here we employ the mother wavelet called the Mexican hat wavelet and apply a Continuous Wavelet Transform to understand the signal in the frequency domain. Further, with the use of the cross-wavelet spectrum we examine the relationship between the two signals (prior or post parameter adjustment) in the time-scale plane (e.g., lower scales correspond to higher frequencies). The non-stationarity of the streamflow signal does not hinder this assessment and regions of change called boundaries of influence (seasons or time when such change occurs in the hydrograph) for each parameter are delineated. In addition, we can discover the structural component of the signal (e.g., shifts or amplitude change) that has changed.

A fast, calibrated model for pyroclastic density currents kinematics and hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Orsucci, Simone; Cornolti, Fulvio

2016-11-01

Multiphase flow models represent valuable tools for the study of the complex, non-equilibrium dynamics of pyroclastic density currents. Particle sedimentation, flow stratification and rheological changes, depending on the flow regime, interaction with topographic obstacles, turbulent air entrainment, buoyancy reversal, and other complex features of pyroclastic currents can be simulated in two and three dimensions, by exploiting efficient numerical solvers and the improved computational capability of modern supercomputers. However, numerical simulations of polydisperse gas-particle mixtures are quite computationally expensive, so that their use in hazard assessment studies (where there is the need of evaluating the probability of hazardous actions over hundreds of possible scenarios) is still challenging. To this aim, a simplified integral (box) model can be used, under the appropriate hypotheses, to describe the kinematics of pyroclastic density currents over a flat topography, their scaling properties and their depositional features. In this work, multiphase flow simulations are used to evaluate integral model approximations, to calibrate its free parameters and to assess the influence of the input data on the results. Two-dimensional numerical simulations describe the generation and decoupling of a dense, basal layer (formed by progressive particle sedimentation) from the dilute transport system. In the Boussinesq regime (i.e., for solid mass fractions below about 0.1), the current Froude number (i.e., the ratio between the current inertia and buoyancy) does not strongly depend on initial conditions and it is consistent to that measured in laboratory experiments (i.e., between 1.05 and 1.2). For higher density ratios (solid mass fraction in the range 0.1-0.9) but still in a relatively dilute regime (particle volume fraction lower than 0.01), numerical simulations demonstrate that the box model is still applicable, but the Froude number depends on the reduced gravity. When the box model is opportunely calibrated with the numerical simulation results, the prediction of the flow runout is fairly accurate and the model predicts a rapid, non-linear decay of the flow kinetic energy (or dynamic pressure) with the distance from the source. The capability of PDC to overcome topographic obstacles can thus be analysed in the framework of the energy-conoid approach, in which the predicted kinetic energy of the flow front is compared with the potential energy jump associated with the elevated topography to derive a condition for blocking. Model results show that, although preferable to the energy-cone, the energy-conoid approach still has some serious limitations, mostly associated with the behaviour of the flow head. Implications of these outcomes are discussed in the context of probabilistic hazard assessment studies, in which a calibrated box model can be used as a fast pyroclastic density current emulator for Monte Carlo simulations.

An inverse modeling approach to estimate groundwater flow and transport model parameters at a research site at Vandenberg AFB, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasa, E.; Foglia, L.; Mackay, D. M.; Ginn, T. R.; Scow, K. M.

2009-12-01

A numerical groundwater fate and transport model was developed for analyses of data from field experiments evaluating the impacts of ethanol on the natural attenuation of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) and methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Site 60. We used the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) groundwater flow (MODFLOW2000) and transport (MT3DMS) models in conjunction with the USGS universal inverse modeling code (UCODE) to jointly determine flow and transport parameters using bromide tracer data from multiple experiments in the same location. The key flow and transport parameters include hydraulic conductivity of aquifer and aquitard layers, porosity, and transverse and longitudinal dispersivity. Aquifer and aquitard layers were assumed homogenous in this study. Therefore, the calibration parameters were not spatially variable within each layer. A total of 162 monitoring wells in seven transects perpendicular to the mean flow direction were monitored over the course of ten months, resulting in 1,766 bromide concentration data points and 149 head values used as observations for the inverse modeling. The results showed the significance of the concentration observation data in predicting the flow model parameters and indicated the sensitivity of the hydraulic conductivity of different zones in the aquifer including the excavated former contaminant zone. The model has already been used to evaluate alternative designs for further experiments on in situ bioremediation of the tert-butyl alcohol (TBA) plume remaining at the site. We describe the recent applications of the model and future work, including adding reaction submodels to the calibrated flow model.

Low Frequency Error Analysis and Calibration for High-Resolution Optical Satellite's Uncontrolled Geometric Positioning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mi; Fang, Chengcheng; Yang, Bo; Cheng, Yufeng

2016-06-01

The low frequency error is a key factor which has affected uncontrolled geometry processing accuracy of the high-resolution optical image. To guarantee the geometric quality of imagery, this paper presents an on-orbit calibration method for the low frequency error based on geometric calibration field. Firstly, we introduce the overall flow of low frequency error on-orbit analysis and calibration, which includes optical axis angle variation detection of star sensor, relative calibration among star sensors, multi-star sensor information fusion, low frequency error model construction and verification. Secondly, we use optical axis angle change detection method to analyze the law of low frequency error variation. Thirdly, we respectively use the method of relative calibration and information fusion among star sensors to realize the datum unity and high precision attitude output. Finally, we realize the low frequency error model construction and optimal estimation of model parameters based on DEM/DOM of geometric calibration field. To evaluate the performance of the proposed calibration method, a certain type satellite's real data is used. Test results demonstrate that the calibration model in this paper can well describe the law of the low frequency error variation. The uncontrolled geometric positioning accuracy of the high-resolution optical image in the WGS-84 Coordinate Systems is obviously improved after the step-wise calibration.

Steady-state and transient models of groundwater flow and advective transport, Eastern Snake River Plain aquifer, Idaho National Laboratory and vicinity, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerman, Daniel J.; Rousseau, Joseph P.; Rattray, Gordon W.; Fisher, Jason C.

2010-01-01

Three-dimensional steady-state and transient models of groundwater flow and advective transport in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy. The steady-state and transient flow models cover an area of 1,940 square miles that includes most of the 890 square miles of the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A 50-year history of waste disposal at the INL has resulted in measurable concentrations of waste contaminants in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer. Model results can be used in numerical simulations to evaluate the movement of contaminants in the aquifer. Saturated flow in the eastern Snake River Plain aquifer was simulated using the MODFLOW-2000 groundwater flow model. Steady-state flow was simulated to represent conditions in 1980 with average streamflow infiltration from 1966-80 for the Big Lost River, the major variable inflow to the system. The transient flow model simulates groundwater flow between 1980 and 1995, a period that included a 5-year wet cycle (1982-86) followed by an 8-year dry cycle (1987-94). Specified flows into or out of the active model grid define the conditions on all boundaries except the southwest (outflow) boundary, which is simulated with head-dependent flow. In the transient flow model, streamflow infiltration was the major stress, and was variable in time and location. The models were calibrated by adjusting aquifer hydraulic properties to match simulated and observed heads or head differences using the parameter-estimation program incorporated in MODFLOW-2000. Various summary, regression, and inferential statistics, in addition to comparisons of model properties and simulated head to measured properties and head, were used to evaluate the model calibration. Model parameters estimated for the steady-state calibration included hydraulic conductivity for seven of nine hydrogeologic zones and a global value of vertical anisotropy. Parameters estimated for the transient calibration included specific yield for five of the seven hydrogeologic zones. The zones represent five rock units and parts of four rock units with abundant interbedded sediment. All estimates of hydraulic conductivity were nearly within 2 orders of magnitude of the maximum expected value in a range that exceeds 6 orders of magnitude. The estimate of vertical anisotropy was larger than the maximum expected value. All estimates of specific yield and their confidence intervals were within the ranges of values expected for aquifers, the range of values for porosity of basalt, and other estimates of specific yield for basalt. The steady-state model reasonably simulated the observed water-table altitude, orientation, and gradients. Simulation of transient flow conditions accurately reproduced observed changes in the flow system resulting from episodic infiltration from the Big Lost River and facilitated understanding and visualization of the relative importance of historical differences in infiltration in time and space. As described in a conceptual model, the numerical model simulations demonstrate flow that is (1) dominantly horizontal through interflow zones in basalt and vertical anisotropy resulting from contrasts in hydraulic conductivity of various types of basalt and the interbedded sediments, (2) temporally variable due to streamflow infiltration from the Big Lost River, and (3) moving downward downgradient of the INL. The numerical models were reparameterized, recalibrated, and analyzed to evaluate alternative conceptualizations or implementations of the conceptual model. The analysis of the reparameterized models revealed that little improvement in the model could come from alternative descriptions of sediment content, simulated aquifer thickness, streamflow infiltration, and vertical head distribution on the downgradient boundary. Of the alternative estimates of flow to or from the aquifer, only a 20 percent decrease in

Modified APEX model for Simulating Macropore Phosphorus Contributions to Tile Drains.

PubMed

Ford, William I; King, Kevin W; Williams, Mark R; Confesor, Remegio B

2017-11-01

The contribution of macropore flow to phosphorus (P) loadings in tile-drained agricultural landscapes remains poorly understood at the field scale, despite the recognized deleterious impacts of contaminant transport via macropore pathways. A new subroutine that couples existing matrix-excess and matrix-desiccation macropore flow theory and a modified P routine is implemented in the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model. The original and modified formulation were applied and evaluated for a case study in a poorly drained field in Western Ohio with 31 months of surface and subsurface monitoring data. Results highlighted that a macropore subroutine in APEX improved edge-of-field discharge calibration and validation for both tile and total discharge from satisfactory and good, respectively, to very good and improved dissolved reactive P load calibration and validation statistics for tile P loads from unsatisfactory to very good. Output from the calibrated macropore simulations suggested median annual matrix-desiccation macropore flow contributions of 48% and P load contributions of 43%, with the majority of loading occurring in winter and spring. While somewhat counterintuitive, the prominence of matrix-desiccation macropore flow during seasons with less cracking reflects the importance of coupled development of macropore pathways and adequate supply of the macropore flow source. The innovative features of the model allow for assessments of annual macropore P contributions to tile drainage and has the potential to inform P site assessment tools. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Simulated groundwater flow in the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers, Rosebud Indian Reservation area, South Dakota - Revisions with data through water year 2008 and simulations of potential future scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Andrew J.; Putnam, Larry D.

2010-01-01

The Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers are important water resources in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area and are used extensively for irrigation, municipal, and domestic water supplies. Drought or increased withdrawals from the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers in the Rosebud Indian Reservation area have the potential to affect water levels in these aquifers. This report documents revisions and recalibration of a previously published three-dimensional, numerical groundwater-flow model for this area. Data for a 30-year period (water years 1979 through 2008) were used in steady-state and transient numerical simulations of groundwater flow. In the revised model, revisions include (1) extension of the transient calibration period by 10 years, (2) the use of inverse modeling for steady-state calibration, (3) model calibration to base flow for an additional four surface-water drainage basins, (4) improved estimation of transient aquifer recharge, (5) improved delineation of vegetation types, and (6) reduced cell size near large capacity water-supply wells. In addition, potential future scenarios were simulated to assess the potential effects of drought and increased groundwater withdrawals.The model comprised two layers: the upper layer represented the Ogallala aquifer and the lower layer represented the Arikaree aquifer. The model’s grid had 168 rows and 202 columns, most of which were 1,640 feet (500 meters) wide, with narrower rows and columns near large water-supply wells. Recharge to the Ogallala and Arikaree aquifers occurs from precipitation on the outcrop areas. The average recharge rates used for the steady-state simulation were 2.91 and 1.45 inches per year for the Ogallala aquifer and Arikaree aquifer, respectively, for a total rate of 255.4 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). Discharge from the aquifers occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams as base flow and spring flow, and well withdrawals. Discharge rates for the steady-state simulation were 171.3 ft3/s for evapotranspiration, 74.4 ft3/s for net outflow to streams and springs, and 11.6 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Estimated horizontal hydraulic conductivity used for the numerical model ranged from 0.2 to 84.4 feet per day (ft/d) in the Ogallala aquifer and from 0.1 to 4.3 ft/d in the Arikaree aquifer. A uniform vertical hydraulic conductivity value of 4.2x10-4 ft/d was estimated for the Ogallala aquifer. Vertical hydraulic conductivity was estimated for five zones in the Arikaree aquifer and ranged from 8.8x10-5 to 3.7 ft/d. Average rates of recharge, maximum evapotranspiration, and well withdrawals were included in the steady-state simulation, whereas the time-varying rates were included in the transient simulation.Inverse modeling techniques were used for steady-state model calibration. These methods were designed to estimate parameter values that are, statistically, the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed hydraulic heads and base-flow discharges. For the steady-state simulation, the root mean square error for simulated hydraulic heads for all 383 wells was 27.3 feet. Simulated hydraulic heads were within ±50 feet of observed values for 93 percent of the wells. The potentiometric surfaces of the two aquifers calculated by the steady-state simulation established initial conditions for the transient simulation. For the transient simulation, the difference between the simulated and observed means for hydrographs was within ±40 feet for 98 percent of 44 observation wells.A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated steady-state model to changes in model parameters including horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, evapotranspiration, recharge, and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances.To simulate a potential future drought scenario, a synthetic recharge record was created, the mean of which was equal to 64 percent of the average estimated recharge rate for the 30-year calibration period. This synthetic recharge record was used to simulate the last 20 years of the calibration period under drought conditions. Compared with results of the calibrated model, decreases in hydraulic-head values for the drought scenario at the end of the simulation period were as much as 39 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 30-year calibration period for the last 20 years of the calibration period. Compared with results of the calibrated model, decreases in hydraulic-head values for the scenario of increased pumping at the end of the simulation period were as much as 13 feet for the Ogallala aquifer.This numerical model is suitable as a tool to help understand the flow system, to help confirm that previous estimates of aquifer properties were reasonable, and to estimate aquifer properties in areas without data. The model also is useful to help assess the effects of drought and increases in pumping by simulations of these scenarios, the results of which are not precise but may be considered when making water management decisions.

Concurrent flow lanes - phase III.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

This report describes efforts taken to develop and calibrate VISSIM models of existing : concurrent flow lane designs of north- and southbound lanes of I-270 from the interchange at : I-70 to interchanges on I-495 at Connecticut Avenue in Maryland an...

Flight Test Results of an Angle of Attack and Angle of Sideslip Calibration Method Using Output-Error Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siu, Marie-Michele; Martos, Borja; Foster, John V.

2013-01-01

As part of a joint partnership between the NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) and the University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI), research on advanced air data calibration methods has been in progress. This research was initiated to expand a novel pitot-static calibration method that was developed to allow rapid in-flight calibration for the NASA Airborne Subscale Transport Aircraft Research (AirSTAR) facility. This approach uses Global Positioning System (GPS) technology coupled with modern system identification methods that rapidly computes optimal pressure error models over a range of airspeed with defined confidence bounds. Subscale flight tests demonstrated small 2-s error bounds with significant reduction in test time compared to other methods. Recent UTSI full scale flight tests have shown airspeed calibrations with the same accuracy or better as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accepted GPS 'four-leg' method in a smaller test area and in less time. The current research was motivated by the desire to extend this method for inflight calibration of angle of attack (AOA) and angle of sideslip (AOS) flow vanes. An instrumented Piper Saratoga research aircraft from the UTSI was used to collect the flight test data and evaluate flight test maneuvers. Results showed that the output-error approach produces good results for flow vane calibration. In addition, maneuvers for pitot-static and flow vane calibration can be integrated to enable simultaneous and efficient testing of each system.

Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.

2017-12-01

A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.

40 CFR 1065.330 - Exhaust-flow calibration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Section 1065.330 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR POLLUTION CONTROLS ENGINE-TESTING PROCEDURES Calibrations and Verifications Flow-Related Measurements § 1065.330... ultrasonic flow meter for raw exhaust flow measurement, we recommend that you calibrate it as described in...

40 CFR 86.116-94 - Calibrations, frequency and overview.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... positive displacement pump or Critical Flow Venturi shall be calibrated following initial installation... an organic gas retention and calibration on the evaporative emissions enclosure (see § 86.117-90(c)). (4) Calibrate the gas meters or flow instrumentation used for providing total flow measurement for...

Simulated peak flows and water-surface profiles for Scott Creek near Sylva, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pope, B.F.

1996-01-01

Peak flows were simulated for Scott Creek, just upstream from Sylva, in Jackson County, North Carolina, in order to provide Jackson County officials with information that can be used to improve preparation for and response to flash floods along the reach of Scott Creek that flows through Sylva. A U.S. Geological Survey rainfall-runoff model was calibrated using observed rainfall and streamflow data collected from March 1994 through September 1995. Standard errors for calibration were 34 percent for runoff volumes and 21 percent for peak flows. The calibrated model was used to simulate peak flows resulting from syn- thetic rainfall amounts of 1.0, 2.5, 5.0, and 7.5 inches in 24-hour periods. For each rainfall amount, peak flows were simulated under low-, moderate-, and high-antecedent soil-moisture conditions, represented by selected 3-month periods of daily rainfall and evaporation record from nearby climatic-data measuring stations. Simulated peak flows ranged from 89 to 10,100 cubic feet per second. Profiles of water-surface elevations for selected observed and simu- lated peak flows were computed for the reach of Scott Creek that flows through Sylva, North Carolina. The profiles were computed using the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers HEC-2 Water Surface Profiles computer program and channel cross-section data collected by the Tennessee Valley Authority. The stage-discharge relation for Scott Creek at the simulation site has changed since the collection of the cross-section data. These changes, however, are such that the water-surface profiles presented in this report likely overestimate the true water-surface elevations at the simulation site for a given peak flow

The influence of preferential flow on pressure propagation and landslide triggering of the Rocca Pitigliana landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Wei; Bogaard, Thom; Bakker, Mark; Berti, Matteo

2016-12-01

The fast pore water pressure response to rain events is an important triggering factor for slope instability. The fast pressure response may be caused by preferential flow that bypasses the soil matrix. Currently, most of the hydro-mechanical models simulate pore water pressure using a single-permeability model, which cannot quantify the effects of preferential flow on pressure propagation and landslide triggering. Previous studies showed that a model based on the linear-diffusion equation can simulate the fast pressure propagation in near-saturated landslides such as the Rocca Pitigliana landslide. In such a model, the diffusion coefficient depends on the degree of saturation, which makes it difficult to use the model for predictions. In this study, the influence of preferential flow on pressure propagation and slope stability is investigated with a 1D dual-permeability model coupled with an infinite-slope stability approach. The dual-permeability model uses two modified Darcy-Richards equations to simultaneously simulate the matrix flow and preferential flow in hillslopes. The simulated pressure head is used in an infinite-slope stability analysis to identify the influence of preferential flow on the fast pressure response and landslide triggering. The dual-permeability model simulates the height and arrival of the pressure peak reasonably well. Performance of the dual-permeability model is as good as or better than the linear-diffusion model even though the dual-permeability model is calibrated for two single pulse rain events only, while the linear-diffusion model is calibrated for each rain event separately. In conclusion, the 1D dual-permeability model is a promising tool for landslides under similar conditions.

Hydrologic and water-quality characterization and modeling of the Chenoweth Run basin, Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Shipp, Allison A.

2001-01-01

Rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected in the Chenoweth Run Basin during February 1996?January 1998, in combination with the available historical sampling data, were used to characterize hydrologic conditions and to develop and calibrate a Hydrological Simulation Program?Fortran (HSPF) model for continuous simulation of rainfall, streamflow, suspended-sediment, and total-orthophosphate (TPO4) transport relations. Study results provide an improved understanding of basin hydrology and a hydrologic-modeling framework with analytical tools for use in comprehensive waterresource planning and management. Chenoweth Run Basin, encompassing 16.5 mi2 in suburban eastern Jefferson County, Kentucky, contains expanding urban development, particularly in the upper third of the basin. Historical water-quality problems have interfered with designated aquatic-life and recreation uses in the stream main channel (approximately 9 mi in length) and have been attributed to organic enrichment, nutrients, metals, and pathogens in urban runoff and wastewater inflows. Hydrologic conditions in Jefferson County are highly varied. In the Chenoweth Run Basin, as in much of the eastern third of the county, relief is moderately sloping to steep. Also, internal drainage in pervious areas is impeded by the shallow, fine-textured subsoils that contain abundant silts and clays. Thus, much of the precipitation here tends to move rapidly as overland flow and (or) shallow subsurface flow (interflow) to the stream channels. Data were collected at two streamflowgaging stations, one rain gage, and four waterquality- sampling sites in the basin. Precipitation, streamflow, and, consequently, constituent loads were above normal during the data-collection period of this study. Nonpoint sources contributed the largest portion of the sediment loads. However, the three wastewatertreatment plants (WWTP?s) were the source of the majority of estimated total phosphorus (TP) and TPO4 transport downstream from the WWTP?s. HSPF, a hydrologic model capable of simulating mixed-land-use basins, includes land surface, subsurface, and instream waterquantity- and water-quality-modeling components. The HSPF model was used to represent several important hydrologic features of the Chenoweth Run Basin including (1) numerous small lakes and ponds, through which approximately 25 percent of the basin drains; (2) potential seasonal ground-waterseepage losses in stream channels; (3) contributions from WWTP effluents and bypass flows; and (4) the transport and transformations of sediments and nutrients. The HSPF model was calibrated and verified for flow simulation on the basis of measured total, annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, hourly, and 5-minute-interval storm discharge data. The occurrence of numerous storms during the study period permitted a splitsample procedure to be used for a model verification on the basis of storm volumes and peaks. Total simulated and observed discharge during the model calibration period differed by approximately -5.4 percent at the upper gaging station and 3.1 percent at the lower station. The model results for the total and annual water balances were classified as very good on the basis of the calibration criteria reported in other modeling studies. The model had correlation coefficients ranging from 0.89 to 0.98 for hourly to monthly mean flows, respectively. The coefficients of model-fit efficiency for daily and monthly discharge simulations were near the excellent range (exceeding 0.97). However, the model was calibrated for a comparatively short 24-month period during which flows were above normal. Increased model error might be expected during an extended period of nearnormal flows. The model was calibrated for simulation of sediment and TPO4 transport. The simulated mean-annual load (over 24 months) ranged from -33 to -28 percent of the estimated sediment load and within +/- 1 percent of the estimated TPO4 load at the two streamflow-gaging s

Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

2017-04-01

Ensemble forecasting has a long history from meteorological modelling, as an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process the ensembles as the they often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters varying in space and time, while giving a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, which makes it unsuitable for our purpose. Our post-processing method of the ensembles is developed in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu), where we are making forecasts for whole Europe, and based on observations from around 700 catchments. As the target is flood forecasting, we are also more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than in a good prediction of the entire flow regime. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different meteorological forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to estimate the total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but we are adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process to force a spatial correlation of the parameters. The penalty takes distance, stream-connectivity and size of the catchment areas into account. This can in some cases have a slight negative impact on the calibration error, but avoids large differences between parameters of nearby locations, whether stream connected or not. The spatial calibration also makes it easier to interpolate the post-processing parameters to uncalibrated locations. We also look into different methods for handling the non-normal distributions of runoff data and the effect of different data transformations on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Engeland, K. and Steinsland, I.: Probabilistic postprocessing models for flow forecasts for a system of catchments and several lead times, Water Resour. Res., 50(1), 182-197, doi:10.1002/2012WR012757, 2014. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1, 2005.

Hydrological modelling of the Mara River Basin, Kenya: Dealing with uncertain data quality and calibrating using river stage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hulsman, P.; Bogaard, T.; Savenije, H. H. G.

2016-12-01

In hydrology and water resources management, discharge is the main time series for model calibration. Rating curves are needed to derive discharge from continuously measured water levels. However, assuring their quality is demanding due to dynamic changes and problems in accurately deriving discharge at high flows. This is valid everywhere, but even more in African socio-economic context. To cope with these uncertainties, this study proposes to use water levels instead of discharge data for calibration. Also uncertainties in rainfall measurements, especially the spatial heterogeneity needs to be considered. In this study, the semi-distributed rainfall runoff model FLEX-Topo was applied to the Mara River Basin. In this model seven sub-basins were distinguished and four hydrological response units with each a unique model structure based on the expected dominant flow processes. Parameter and process constrains were applied to exclude unrealistic results. To calibrate the model, the water levels were back-calculated from modelled discharges, using cross-section data and the Strickler formula calibrating parameter `k•s1/2', and compared to measured water levels. The model simulated the water depths well for the entire basin and the Nyangores sub-basin in the north. However, the calibrated and observed rating curves differed significantly at the basin outlet, probably due to uncertainties in the measured discharge, but at Nyangores they were almost identical. To assess the effect of rainfall uncertainties on the hydrological model, the representative rainfall in each sub-basin was estimated with three different methods: 1) single station, 2) average precipitation, 3) areal sub-division using Thiessen polygons. All three methods gave on average similar results, but method 1 resulted in more flashy responses, method 2 dampened the water levels due to averaging the rainfall and method 3 was a combination of both. In conclusion, in the case of unreliable rating curves, water level data can be used instead and a new rating curve can be calibrated. The effect of rainfall uncertainties on the hydrological model was insignificant.

MODOPTIM: A general optimization program for ground-water flow model calibration and ground-water management with MODFLOW

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, Keith J.

2006-01-01

MODOPTIM is a non-linear ground-water model calibration and management tool that simulates flow with MODFLOW-96 as a subroutine. A weighted sum-of-squares objective function defines optimal solutions for calibration and management problems. Water levels, discharges, water quality, subsidence, and pumping-lift costs are the five direct observation types that can be compared in MODOPTIM. Differences between direct observations of the same type can be compared to fit temporal changes and spatial gradients. Water levels in pumping wells, wellbore storage in the observation wells, and rotational translation of observation wells also can be compared. Negative and positive residuals can be weighted unequally so inequality constraints such as maximum chloride concentrations or minimum water levels can be incorporated in the objective function. Optimization parameters are defined with zones and parameter-weight matrices. Parameter change is estimated iteratively with a quasi-Newton algorithm and is constrained to a user-defined maximum parameter change per iteration. Parameters that are less sensitive than a user-defined threshold are not estimated. MODOPTIM facilitates testing more conceptual models by expediting calibration of each conceptual model. Examples of applying MODOPTIM to aquifer-test analysis, ground-water management, and parameter estimation problems are presented.

Transient calibration of a groundwater-flow model of Chimacum Creek Basin and vicinity, Jefferson County, Washington: a supplement to Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5160

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Joseph L.; Johnson, Kenneth H.

2013-01-01

A steady-state groundwater-flow model described in Scientific Investigations Report 2013-5160, ”Numerical Simulation of the Groundwater-Flow System in Chimacum Creek Basin and Vicinity, Jefferson County, Washington” was developed to evaluate potential future impacts of growth and of water-management strategies on water resources in the Chimacum Creek Basin. This supplement to that report describes the unsuccessful attempt to perform a calibration to transient conditions on the model. The modeled area is about 64 square miles on the Olympic Peninsula in northeastern Jefferson County, Washington. The geologic setting for the model area is that of unconsolidated deposits of glacial and interglacial origin typical of the Puget Sound Lowlands. The hydrogeologic units representing aquifers are Upper Aquifer (UA, roughly corresponding to recessional outwash) and Lower Aquifer (LA, roughly corresponding to advance outwash). Recharge from precipitation is the dominant source of water to the aquifer system; discharge is primarily to marine waters below sea level and to Chimacum Creek and its tributaries. The model is comprised of a grid of 245 columns and 313 rows; cells are a uniform 200 feet per side. There are six model layers, each representing one hydrogeologic unit: (1) Upper Confining unit (UC); (2) Upper Aquifer unit (UA); (3) Middle Confining unit (MC); (4) Lower Aquifer unit (LA); (5) Lower Confining unit (LC); and (6) Bedrock unit (OE). The transient simulation period (October 1994–September 2009) was divided into 180 monthly stress periods to represent temporal variations in recharge, discharge, and storage. An attempt to calibrate the model to transient conditions was unsuccessful due to instabilities stemming from oscillations in groundwater discharge to and recharge from streamflow in Chimacum Creek. The model as calibrated to transient conditions has mean residuals and standard errors of 0.06 ft ±0.45 feet for groundwater levels and 0.48 ± 0.06 cubic feet per second for flows. Although the expected seasonal trends were observed in model results, the typical observed annual variation of groundwater levels of about 2 feet was not. Streamflow at the most downstream observation point was about three times larger than simulated streamflow. Because the transient version of the model proved inherently unstable, it was not used to simulate forecast conditions for alternate hydrologic or anthropogenic changes. Adaptation of alternate stream simulation packages, such as RIV, or newer versions of MODFLOW, such as MODFLOW-NWT, could possibly assist with achieving calibration to transient conditions.

Development of the Dual Aerodynamic Nozzle Model for the NTF Semi-Span Model Support System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Greg S.; Milholen, William E., II; Goodliff, Scott L.

2011-01-01

The recent addition of a dual flow air delivery system to the NASA Langley National Transonic Facility was experimentally validated with a Dual Aerodynamic Nozzle semi-span model. This model utilized two Stratford calibration nozzles to characterize the weight flow system of the air delivery system. The weight flow boundaries for the air delivery system were identified at mildly cryogenic conditions to be 0.1 to 23 lbm/sec for the high flow leg and 0.1 to 9 lbm/sec for the low flow leg. Results from this test verified system performance and identified problems with the weight-flow metering system that required the vortex flow meters to be replaced at the end of the test.

Application of the International Water Association activated sludge models to describe aerobic sludge digestion.

PubMed

Ghorbani, M; Eskicioglu, C

2011-12-01

Batch and semi-continuous flow aerobic digesters were used to stabilize thickened waste-activated sludge at different initial conditions and mean solids retention times. Under dynamic conditions, total suspended solids, volatile suspended solids (VSS) and total and particulate chemical oxygen demand (COD and PCOD) were monitored in the batch reactors and effluent from the semi-continuous flow reactors. Activated Sludge Model (ASM) no. 1 and ASM no. 3 were applied to measured data (calibration data set) to evaluate the consistency and performances of models at different flow regimes for digester COD and VSS modelling. The results indicated that both ASM1 and ASM3 predicted digester COD, VSS and PCOD concentrations well (R2, Ra2 > or = 0.93). Parameter estimation concluded that compared to ASM1, ASM3 parameters were more consistent across different batch and semi-continuous flow runs with different operating conditions. Model validation on a data set independent from the calibration data successfully predicted digester COD (R2 = 0.88) and VSS (R2 = 0.94) concentrations by ASM3, while ASM1 overestimated both reactor COD (R2 = 0.74) and VSS concentrations (R2 = 0.79) after 15 days of aerobic batch digestion.

Calibration of silicone rubber rods as passive samplers for pesticides at two different flow velocities: Modeling of sampling rates under water boundary layer and polymer control.

PubMed

Martin, Alexis; Margoum, Christelle; Jolivet, Antoine; Assoumani, Azziz; El Moujahid, Bachir; Randon, Jérôme; Coquery, Marina

2018-04-01

There is a need to determine time-weighted average concentrations of polar contaminants such as pesticides by passive sampling in environmental waters. Calibration data for silicone rubber-based passive samplers are lacking for this class of compounds. The calibration data, sampling rate (R s ), and partition coefficient between silicone rubber and water (K sw ) were precisely determined for 23 pesticides and 13 candidate performance reference compounds (PRCs) in a laboratory calibration system over 14 d for 2 water flow velocities, 5 and 20 cm s -1 . The results showed that an in situ exposure duration of 7 d left a silicone rubber rod passive sampler configuration in the linear or curvilinear uptake period for 19 of the pesticides studied. A change in the transport mechanism from polymer control to water boundary layer control was observed for pesticides with a log K sw of approximately 3.3. The PRC candidates were not fully relevant to correct the impact of water flow velocity on R s . We therefore propose an alternative method based on an overall resistance to mass transfer model to adjust R s from laboratory experiments to in situ hydrodynamic conditions. We estimated diffusion coefficients (D s ) and thickness of water boundary layer (δ w ) as adjustable model parameters. Log D s values ranged from -12.13 to -10.07 m 2  s -1 . The estimated δ w value showed a power function correlation with water flow velocity. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1208-1218. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Simulations of groundwater flow, transport, and age in Albuquerque, New Mexico, for a study of transport of anthropogenic and natural contaminants (TANC) to public-supply wells

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heywood, Charles E.

2013-01-01

Vulnerability to contamination from manmade and natural sources can be characterized by the groundwater-age distribution measured in a supply well and the associated implications for the source depths of the withdrawn water. Coupled groundwater flow and transport models were developed to simulate the transport of the geochemical age-tracers carbon-14, tritium, and three chlorofluorocarbon species to public-supply wells in Albuquerque, New Mexico. A separate, regional-scale simulation of transport of carbon-14 that used the flow-field computed by a previously documented regional groundwater flow model was calibrated and used to specify the initial concentrations of carbon-14 in the local-scale transport model. Observations of the concentrations of each of the five chemical species, in addition to water-level observations and measurements of intra-borehole flow within a public-supply well, were used to calibrate parameters of the local-scale groundwater flow and transport models. The calibrated groundwater flow model simulates the mixing of “young” groundwater, which entered the groundwater flow system after 1950 as recharge at the water table, with older resident groundwater that is more likely associated with natural contaminants. Complexity of the aquifer system in the zone of transport between the water table and public-supply well screens was simulated with a geostatistically generated stratigraphic realization based upon observed lithologic transitions at borehole control locations. Because effective porosity was simulated as spatially uniform, the simulated age tracers are more efficiently transported through the portions of the simulated aquifer with relatively higher simulated hydraulic conductivity. Non-pumping groundwater wells with long screens that connect aquifer intervals having different hydraulic heads can provide alternate pathways for contaminant transport that are faster than the advective transport through the aquifer material. Simulation of flow and transport through these wells requires time discretization that adequately represents periods of pumping and non-pumping. The effects of intra-borehole flow are not fully represented in the simulation because it employs seasonal stress periods, which are longer than periods of pumping and non-pumping. Further simulations utilizing daily pumpage data and model stress periods may help quantify the relative effects of intra-borehole versus advective aquifer flow on the transport of contaminants near the public-supply wells. The fraction of young water withdrawn from the studied supply well varies with simulated pumping rates due to changes in the relative contributions to flow from different aquifer intervals. The advective transport of dissolved solutes from a known contaminant source to the public-supply wells was simulated by using particle-tracking. Because of the transient groundwater flow field, scenarios with alternative contaminant release times result in different simulated-particle fates, most of which are withdrawn from the aquifer at wells that are between the source and the studied supply well. The relatively small effective porosity required to simulate advective transport from the simulated contaminant source to the studied supply well is representative of a preferential pathway and not the predominant aquifer effective porosity that was estimated by the calibration of the model to observed chemical-tracer concentrations.

Numerical Simulations of Plasma Based Flow Control Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suzen, Y. B.; Huang, P. G.; Jacob, J. D.; Ashpis, D. E.

2005-01-01

A mathematical model was developed to simulate flow control applications using plasma actuators. The effects of the plasma actuators on the external flow are incorporated into Navier Stokes computations as a body force vector. In order to compute this body force vector, the model solves two additional equations: one for the electric field due to the applied AC voltage at the electrodes and the other for the charge density representing the ionized air. The model is calibrated against an experiment having plasma-driven flow in a quiescent environment and is then applied to simulate a low pressure turbine flow with large flow separation. The effects of the plasma actuator on control of flow separation are demonstrated numerically.

Experimental study on rotating instability mode characteristics of axial compressor tip flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Jie; Yao, Dan; Wu, Yadong; Ouyang, Hua

2018-04-01

This paper investigates the rotating instabilities that occurred on the single-stage axial compressor designed for aerodynamic performance validation, which was tested with two sets of circumferential measuring points in combination. Circumferential mode characteristics of compressors are usually too high to be captured experimentally, and aliasing of the circumferential mode order occurs when not enough sensors are used. A calibration and prediction method to capture the higher circumferential mode of unsteady flow in a compressor was proposed. Unsteady pressure fluctuations near the tip region in an axial compressor were studied, and high circumferential mode characteristics were captured on both the blade passing frequency (BPF) and the rotational instability frequency (RIF) under different flow rate conditions based on this novel method. The characteristic RI spectrum with a broadband hump was present in a large range of flow conditions. Both the frequency range and the dominant circumferential mode order decreased as the flow rate decreased. Based on the calibrated mode characteristics, a rotating aerodynamic source model is used to explain the side-by-side peak of RIF spectrum and rotating characteristics of RI. The calibration and prediction method of the high circumferential mode is beneficial for the research of unsteady flow in an axial compressor.

A comparison of two infiltration models applied to simulation of overland flow over a two-dimensional flume.

PubMed

Mallari, K J B; Kim, H; Pak, G; Aksoy, H; Yoon, J

2015-01-01

At the hillslope scale, where the rill-interrill configuration plays a significant role, infiltration is one of the major hydrologic processes affecting the generation of overland flow. As such, it is important to achieve a good understanding and accurate modelling of this process. Horton's infiltration has been widely used in many hydrologic models, though it has been occasionally found limited in handling adequately the antecedent moisture conditions (AMC) of soil. Holtan's model, conversely, is thought to be able to provide better estimation of infiltration rates as it can directly account for initial soil water content in its formulation. In this study, the Holtan model is coupled to an existing overland flow model, originally using Horton's model to account for infiltration, in an attempt to improve the prediction of runoff. For calibration and validation, experimental data from a two-dimensional flume which is incorporated with hillslope configuration have been used. Calibration and validation results showed that Holtan's model was able to improve the modelling results with better performance statistics than the Horton-coupled model. Holtan's infiltration equation, which allows accounting for AMC, provided an advantage and resulted in better runoff prediction of the model.

Modeling anthropogenic boron in groundwater flow and discharge at Volusia Blue Spring (Florida, USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, Erin M.; Wang, Dingbao; Duranceau, Steven J.

2017-01-01

Volusia Blue Spring (VBS) is the largest spring along the St. Johns River in Florida (USA) and the spring pool is refuge for hundreds of manatees during winter months. However, the water quality of the spring flow has been degraded due to urbanization in the past few decades. A three-dimensional contaminant fate and transport model, utilizing MODFLOW-2000 and MT3DMS, was developed to simulate boron transport in the Upper Florida Aquifer, which sustains the VBS spring discharge. The VBS model relied on information and data related to natural water features, rainfall, land use, water use, treated wastewater discharge, septic tank effluent flows, and fertilizers as inputs to simulate boron transport. The model was calibrated against field-observed water levels, spring discharge, and analysis of boron in water samples. The calibrated VBS model yielded a root-mean-square-error value of 1.8 m for the head and 17.7 μg/L for boron concentrations within the springshed. Model results show that anthropogenic boron from surrounding urbanized areas contributes to the boron found at Volusia Blue Spring.

Death Valley regional groundwater flow system, Nevada and California-Hydrogeologic framework and transient groundwater flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belcher, Wayne R.; Sweetkind, Donald S.

2010-01-01

A numerical three-dimensional (3D) transient groundwater flow model of the Death Valley region was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Department of Energy programs at the Nevada Test Site and at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Decades of study of aspects of the groundwater flow system and previous less extensive groundwater flow models were incorporated and reevaluated together with new data to provide greater detail for the complex, digital model. A 3D digital hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) was developed from digital elevation models, geologic maps, borehole information, geologic and hydrogeologic cross sections, and other 3D models to represent the geometry of the hydrogeologic units (HGUs). Structural features, such as faults and fractures, that affect groundwater flow also were added. The HFM represents Precambrian and Paleozoic crystalline and sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic to Cenozoic intrusive rocks, Cenozoic volcanic tuffs and lavas, and late Cenozoic sedimentary deposits of the Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) region in 27 HGUs. Information from a series of investigations was compiled to conceptualize and quantify hydrologic components of the groundwater flow system within the DVRFS model domain and to provide hydraulic-property and head-observation data used in the calibration of the transient-flow model. These studies reevaluated natural groundwater discharge occurring through evapotranspiration (ET) and spring flow; the history of groundwater pumping from 1913 through 1998; groundwater recharge simulated as net infiltration; model boundary inflows and outflows based on regional hydraulic gradients and water budgets of surrounding areas; hydraulic conductivity and its relation to depth; and water levels appropriate for regional simulation of prepumped and pumped conditions within the DVRFS model domain. Simulation results appropriate for the regional extent and scale of the model were provided by acquiring additional data, by reevaluating existing data using current technology and concepts, and by refining earlier interpretations to reflect the current understanding of the regional groundwater flow system. Groundwater flow in the Death Valley region is composed of several interconnected, complex groundwater flow systems. Groundwater flow occurs in three subregions in relatively shallow and localized flow paths that are superimposed on deeper, regional flow paths. Regional groundwater flow is predominantly through a thick Paleozoic carbonate rock sequence affected by complex geologic structures from regional faulting and fracturing that can enhance or impede flow. Spring flow and ET are the dominant natural groundwater discharge processes. Groundwater also is withdrawn for agricultural, commercial, and domestic uses. Groundwater flow in the DVRFS was simulated using MODFLOW-2000, the U.S. Geological Survey 3D finitedifference modular groundwater flow modeling code that incorporates a nonlinear least-squares regression technique to estimate aquifer parameters. The DVRFS model has 16 layers of defined thickness, a finite-difference grid consisting of 194 rows and 160 columns, and uniform cells 1,500 meters (m) on each side. Prepumping conditions (before 1913) were used as the initial conditions for the transient-state calibration. The model uses annual stress periods with discrete recharge and discharge components. Recharge occurs mostly from infiltration of precipitation and runoff on high mountain ranges and from a small amount of underflow from adjacent basins. Discharge occurs primarily through ET and spring discharge (both simulated as drains) and water withdrawal by pumping and, to a lesser amount, by underflow to adjacent basins simulated by constant-head boundaries. All parameter values estimated by the regression are reasonable and within the range of expected values. The simulated hydraulic heads of the final calibrated transient mode

Potential climate-induced runoff changes and associated uncertainty in four Pacific Northwest estuaries

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steele, Madeline O.; Chang, Heejun; Reusser, Deborah A.; Brown, Cheryl A.; Jung, Il-Won

2012-01-01

As part of a larger investigation into potential effects of climate change on estuarine habitats in the Pacific Northwest, we estimated changes in freshwater inputs into four estuaries: Coquille River estuary, South Slough of Coos Bay, and Yaquina Bay in Oregon, and Willapa Bay in Washington. We used the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to model watershed hydrological processes under current and future climatic conditions. This model allowed us to explore possible shifts in coastal hydrologic regimes at a range of spatial scales. All modeled watersheds are located in rainfall-dominated coastal areas with relatively insignificant base flow inputs, and their areas vary from 74.3 to 2,747.6 square kilometers. The watersheds also vary in mean elevation, ranging from 147 meters in the Willapa to 1,179 meters in the Coquille. The latitudes of watershed centroids range from 43.037 degrees north latitude in the Coquille River estuary to 46.629 degrees north latitude in Willapa Bay. We calibrated model parameters using historical climate grid data downscaled to one-sixteenth of a degree by the Climate Impacts Group, and historical runoff from sub-watersheds or neighboring watersheds. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values for daily flows in calibration sub-watersheds ranged from 0.71 to 0.89. After calibration, we forced the PRMS models with four North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program climate models: Canadian Regional Climate Model-(National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model version 3, Canadian Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3, Hadley Regional Model version 3-Hadley Centre Climate Model version 3, and Regional Climate Model-Canadian Global Climate Model version 3. These are global climate models (GCMs) downscaled with regional climate models that are embedded within the GCMs, and all use the A2 carbon emission scenario developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. With these climate-forcing outputs, we derived the mean change in flow from the period encompassing the 1980s (1971-1995) to the period encompassing the 2050s (2041-2065). Specifically, we calculated percent change in mean monthly flow rate, coefficient of variation, top 5 percent of flow, and 7-day low flow. The trends with the most agreement among climate models and among watersheds were increases in autumn mean monthly flows, especially in October and November, decreases in summer monthly mean flow, and increases in the top 5 percent of flow. We also estimated variance in PRMS outputs owing to parameter uncertainty and the selection of climate model using Latin hypercube sampling. This analysis showed that PRMS low-flow simulations are more uncertain than medium or high flow simulations, and that variation among climate models was a larger source of uncertainty than the hydrological model parameters. These results improve our understanding of how climate change may affect the saltwater-freshwater balance in Pacific Northwest estuaries, with implications for their sensitive ecosystems.

The Value of Hydrograph Partitioning Curves for Calibrating Hydrological Models in Glacierized Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhihua; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Gafurov, Abror; Kalashnikova, Olga; Omorova, Elvira; Merz, Bruno

2018-03-01

This study refines the method for calibrating a glacio-hydrological model based on Hydrograph Partitioning Curves (HPCs), and evaluates its value in comparison to multidata set optimization approaches which use glacier mass balance, satellite snow cover images, and discharge. The HPCs are extracted from the observed flow hydrograph using catchment precipitation and temperature gradients. They indicate the periods when the various runoff processes, such as glacier melt or snow melt, dominate the basin hydrograph. The annual cumulative curve of the difference between average daily temperature and melt threshold temperature over the basin, as well as the annual cumulative curve of average daily snowfall on the glacierized areas are used to identify the starting and end dates of snow and glacier ablation periods. Model parameters characterizing different runoff processes are calibrated on different HPCs in a stepwise and iterative way. Results show that the HPC-based method (1) delivers model-internal consistency comparably to the tri-data set calibration method; (2) improves the stability of calibrated parameter values across various calibration periods; and (3) estimates the contributions of runoff components similarly to the tri-data set calibration method. Our findings indicate the potential of the HPC-based approach as an alternative for hydrological model calibration in glacierized basins where other calibration data sets than discharge are often not available or very costly to obtain.

State updating and calibration period selection to improve dynamic monthly streamflow forecasts for an environmental flow management application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbs, Matthew S.; McInerney, David; Humphrey, Greer; Thyer, Mark A.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.; Kavetski, Dmitri

2018-02-01

Monthly to seasonal streamflow forecasts provide useful information for a range of water resource management and planning applications. This work focuses on improving such forecasts by considering the following two aspects: (1) state updating to force the models to match observations from the start of the forecast period, and (2) selection of a shorter calibration period that is more representative of the forecast period, compared to a longer calibration period traditionally used. The analysis is undertaken in the context of using streamflow forecasts for environmental flow water management of an open channel drainage network in southern Australia. Forecasts of monthly streamflow are obtained using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model combined with a post-processor error model for uncertainty analysis. This model set-up is applied to two catchments, one with stronger evidence of non-stationarity than the other. A range of metrics are used to assess different aspects of predictive performance, including reliability, sharpness, bias and accuracy. The results indicate that, for most scenarios and metrics, state updating improves predictive performance for both observed rainfall and forecast rainfall sources. Using the shorter calibration period also improves predictive performance, particularly for the catchment with stronger evidence of non-stationarity. The results highlight that a traditional approach of using a long calibration period can degrade predictive performance when there is evidence of non-stationarity. The techniques presented can form the basis for operational monthly streamflow forecasting systems and provide support for environmental decision-making.

Constraining Controls on the Emplacement of Long Lava Flows on Earth and Mars Through Modeling in ArcGIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golder, K.; Burr, D. M.; Tran, L.

2017-12-01

Regional volcanic processes shaped many planetary surfaces in the Solar System, often through the emplacement of long, voluminous lava flows. Terrestrial examples of this type of lava flow have been used as analogues for extensive martian flows, including those within the circum-Cerberus outflow channels. This analogy is based on similarities in morphology, extent, and inferred eruptive style between terrestrial and martian flows, which raises the question of how these lava flows appear comparable in size and morphology on different planets. The parameters that influence the areal extent of silicate lavas during emplacement may be categorized as either inherent or external to the lava. The inherent parameters include the lava yield strength, density, composition, water content, crystallinity, exsolved gas content, pressure, and temperature. Each inherent parameter affects the overall viscosity of the lava, and for this work can be considered a subset of the viscosity parameter. External parameters include the effusion rate, total erupted volume, regional slope, and gravity. To investigate which parameter(s) may control(s) the development of long lava flows on Mars, we are applying a computational numerical-modelling to reproduce the observed lava flow morphologies. Using a matrix of boundary conditions in the model enables us to investigate the possible range of emplacement conditions that can yield the observed morphologies. We have constructed the basic model framework in Model Builder within ArcMap, including all governing equations and parameters that we seek to test, and initial implementation and calibration has been performed. The base model is currently capable of generating a lava flow that propagates along a pathway governed by the local topography. At AGU, the results of model calibration using the Eldgá and Laki lava flows in Iceland will be presented, along with the application of the model to lava flows within the Cerberus plains on Mars. We then plan to convert the model into Python, for easy modification and portability within the community.

Remediation scenarios for attenuating peak flows and reducing sediment transport in Fountain Creek, Colorado, 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kohn, Michael S.; Fulton, John W.; Williams, Cory A.; Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Fountain Creek Watershed, Flood Control and Greenway District assessed remediation scenarios to attenuate peak flows and reduce sediment loads in the Fountain Creek watershed. To evaluate these strategies, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) hydrologic and hydraulic models were employed. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Modeling System) version 3.5 was used to simulate runoff in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, associated with storms of varying magnitude and duration. Rain-gage precipitation data and radar-based precipitation data from the April 28–30, 1999, and September 14–15, 2011, storm events were used in the calibration process for the HEC-HMS model. The curve number and lag time for each subwatershed and Manning's roughness coefficients for each channel reach were adjusted within an acceptable range so that the simulated and measured streamflow hydrographs for each of the 12 USGS streamgages approximated each other. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-RAS (River Analysis System) versions 4.1 and 4.2 were used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport, respectively, for the Fountain Creek watershed generated by a particular storm event. Data from 15 USGS streamgages were used for model calibration and 7 of those USGS streamgages were used for model validation. The calibration process consisted of comparing the simulated water-surface elevations and the cross-section-averaged velocities from the model with those surveyed in the field at the cross section at the corresponding 15 and 7 streamgages, respectively. The final Manning’s roughness coefficients were adjusted between –30 and 30 percent at the 15 calibration streamgages from the original left, right, and channel-averaged Manning's roughness coefficients upon completion of calibration. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers modeling system HEC-RAS version 4.2 was used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport for the Fountain Creek watershed generated by a design-storm event. The Laursen-Copeland sediment-transport function was used in conjunction with the Exner 5 sorting method and the Ruby fall-velocity method to predict sediment transport. Six USGS streamgages equipped with suspended-sediment samplers were used to develop sediment-flow rating curves for the sediment-transport-model calibration. The critical Shields number in the Laursen-Copeland sediment-transport function and the volume of sediment available at a given cross section were adjusted during the HEC-RAS sediment-model calibration process. HEC-RAS model simulations used to evaluate the 14 remediation scenarios were based on unsteady-state streamflows associated with a 24-hour, 1-percent annual exceedance probability (100-year) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Type II precipitation event. Scenario 0 represents the baseline or current conditions in the watershed and was used to compare the remaining 13 scenarios. Scenarios 1–8 and 12 rely on side-detention facilities to reduce peak flows and sediment transport. Scenario 9 has a diversion channel, and scenario 10 has a reservoir. Scenarios 11 and 13 incorporate channel armoring and channel widening, respectively. Scenarios 8 and 10, the scenario with the most side-detention facilities, and the scenario with the reservoir, respectively, were the most effective at reducing sediment transport and peak flow at the Pueblo, Colorado, streamgage. Scenarios 8 and 10 altered the peak flow by –58.9 and –56.4 percent, respectively. In turn, scenarios 8 and 10 altered the sediment transport by –17.7 and –62.1 percent, respectively.

FlowCal: A user-friendly, open source software tool for automatically converting flow cytometry data from arbitrary to calibrated units

PubMed Central

Castillo-Hair, Sebastian M.; Sexton, John T.; Landry, Brian P.; Olson, Evan J.; Igoshin, Oleg A.; Tabor, Jeffrey J.

2017-01-01

Flow cytometry is widely used to measure gene expression and other molecular biological processes with single cell resolution via fluorescent probes. Flow cytometers output data in arbitrary units (a.u.) that vary with the probe, instrument, and settings. Arbitrary units can be converted to the calibrated unit molecules of equivalent fluorophore (MEF) using commercially available calibration particles. However, there is no convenient, non-proprietary tool available to perform this calibration. Consequently, most researchers report data in a.u., limiting interpretation. Here, we report a software tool named FlowCal to overcome current limitations. FlowCal can be run using an intuitive Microsoft Excel interface, or customizable Python scripts. The software accepts Flow Cytometry Standard (FCS) files as inputs and is compatible with different calibration particles, fluorescent probes, and cell types. Additionally, FlowCal automatically gates data, calculates common statistics, and produces publication quality plots. We validate FlowCal by calibrating a.u. measurements of E. coli expressing superfolder GFP (sfGFP) collected at 10 different detector sensitivity (gain) settings to a single MEF value. Additionally, we reduce day-to-day variability in replicate E. coli sfGFP expression measurements due to instrument drift by 33%, and calibrate S. cerevisiae mVenus expression data to MEF units. Finally, we demonstrate a simple method for using FlowCal to calibrate fluorescence units across different cytometers. FlowCal should ease the quantitative analysis of flow cytometry data within and across laboratories and facilitate the adoption of standard fluorescence units in synthetic biology and beyond. PMID:27110723

A Novel Protocol for Model Calibration in Biological Wastewater Treatment

PubMed Central

Zhu, Ao; Guo, Jianhua; Ni, Bing-Jie; Wang, Shuying; Yang, Qing; Peng, Yongzhen

2015-01-01

Activated sludge models (ASMs) have been widely used for process design, operation and optimization in wastewater treatment plants. However, it is still a challenge to achieve an efficient calibration for reliable application by using the conventional approaches. Hereby, we propose a novel calibration protocol, i.e. Numerical Optimal Approaching Procedure (NOAP), for the systematic calibration of ASMs. The NOAP consists of three key steps in an iterative scheme flow: i) global factors sensitivity analysis for factors fixing; ii) pseudo-global parameter correlation analysis for non-identifiable factors detection; and iii) formation of a parameter subset through an estimation by using genetic algorithm. The validity and applicability are confirmed using experimental data obtained from two independent wastewater treatment systems, including a sequencing batch reactor and a continuous stirred-tank reactor. The results indicate that the NOAP can effectively determine the optimal parameter subset and successfully perform model calibration and validation for these two different systems. The proposed NOAP is expected to use for automatic calibration of ASMs and be applied potentially to other ordinary differential equations models. PMID:25682959

James Webb Space Telescope Integrated Science Instrument Module Calibration and Verification of High-Accuracy Instrumentation to Measure Heat Flow in Cryogenic Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Comber, Brian; Glazer, Stuart

2012-01-01

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is an upcoming flagship observatory mission scheduled to be launched in 2018. Three of the four science instruments are passively cooled to their operational temperature range of 36K to 40K, and the fourth instrument is actively cooled to its operational temperature of approximately 6K. The requirement for multiple thermal zoned results in the instruments being thermally connected to five external radiators via individual high purity aluminum heat straps. Thermal-vacuum and thermal balance testing of the flight instruments at the Integrated Science Instrument Module (ISIM) element level will take place within a newly constructed shroud cooled by gaseous helium inside Goddard Space Flight Center's (GSFC) Space environment Simulator (SES). The flight external radiators are not available during ISIM-level thermal vacuum/thermal testing, so they will be replaced in test with stable and adjustable thermal boundaries with identical physical interfaces to the flight radiators. Those boundaries are provided by specially designed test hardware which also measures the heat flow within each of the five heat straps to an accuracy of less than 2 mW, which is less than 5% of the minimum predicted heat flow values. Measurement of the heat loads to this accuracy is essential to ISIM thermal model correlation, since thermal models are more accurately correlated when temperature data is supplemented by accurate knowledge of heat flows. It also provides direct verification by test of several high-level thermal requirements. Devices that measure heat flow in this manner have historically been referred to a "Q-meters". Perhaps the most important feature of the design of the JWST Q-meters is that it does not depend on the absolute accuracy of its temperature sensors, but rather on knowledge of precise heater power required to maintain a constant temperature difference between sensors on two stages, for which a table is empirically developed during a calibration campaign in a small chamber at GSFC. This paper provides a brief review of Q-meter design, and discusses the Q-meter calibration procedure including calibration chamber modifications and accommodations, handling of differing conditions between calibration and usage, the calibration process itself, and the results of the tests used to determine if the calibration is successful.

Numerical simulation of the groundwater-flow system in Chimacum Creek Basin and vicinity, Jefferson County, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Joseph L.; Johnson, Kenneth H.; Frans, Lonna M.

2013-01-01

A groundwater-flow model was developed to evaluate potential future effects of growth and of water-management strategies on water resources in the Chimacum Creek Basin. The model covers an area of about 64 square miles (mi2) on the Olympic Peninsula in northeastern Jefferson County, Washington. The Chimacum Creek Basin drains an area of about 53 mi2 and consists of Chimacum Creek and its tributary East Fork Chimacum Creek, which converge near the town of Chimacum and discharge to Port Townsend Bay near the town of Irondale. The topography of the model area consists of north-south oriented, narrow, regularly spaced parallel ridges and valleys that are characteristic of fluted glaciated surfaces. Thick accumulations of peat occur along the axis of East Fork Chimacum Creek and provide rich soils for agricultural use. The study area is underlain by a north-thickening sequence of unconsolidated glacial (till and outwash) and interglacial (fluvial and lacustrine) deposits, and sedimentary and igneous bedrock units that crop out along the margins and the western interior of the model area. Six hydrogeologic units in the model area form the basis of the groundwater-flow model. They are represented by model layers UC (upper confining), UA (upper aquifer), MC (middle confining), LA (lower aquifer), LC (lower confining), and OE (bedrock). Groundwater flow in the Chimacum Creek Basin and vicinity was simulated using the groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW-2005. The finite-difference model grid comprises 245 columns, 313 rows, and 6 layers. Each model cell has a horizontal dimension of 200 × 200 feet (ft). The thickness of model layers varies throughout the model area and ranges from 5 ft in the non-bedrock units to more than 2,400 ft in the bedrock. Groundwater flow was simulated for steady-state conditions, which were simulated for calibration of the model using average recharge, discharge, and water levels for the 180-month period October 1994–September 2009. The model as calibrated has a mean residual of 4.5 ft and a standard error on the mean of 2.1 ft for heads, and 0.64±0.42 cubic feet per second for streamflows. After the model was calibrated, a Current Conditions simulation was developed to reflect current (October 2008–September 2009) hydrologic conditions, with representative pumping, return flows, and “normal” recharge (based on National Weather Service average precipitation for 1981 to 2010). The Current Conditions simulation was used to estimate current flow quantities, and as a basis to compare other simulations.Simulated steady-state inflow to the model area from precipitation and secondary recharge, or “return flow,” was 16,347 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr); groundwater inflow from other basins to the north of the model boundary was 1,518 acre-ft/yr (net, 3,114 acre-ft/yr in and 1,596 acre-ft/yr out) and simulated inflow from lake leakage was 613 acre-ft/yr (net, 684 acre-ft/yr in and 71 acre-ft/yr out). Simulated outflow from the model primarily was through discharge to Puget Sound (10,022 acre-ft/yr), streams (5,424 acre-ft/yr ), springs and seeps (1,521 acre-ft/yr), and through withdrawals from wells (1,506 acre-ft/yr). Four simulations were formulated using the calibrated model—one to represent current conditions (2009, the end of the period used for calibration) and three to provide representative examples of how the model can be used to evaluate the relative effects of potential changes in groundwater withdrawals and consumptive use on groundwater levels and stream base flows: Probable Future Use, based on population projections; Full Beneficial Use, based on Jefferson County Public Utility District #1 water rights; Sanitary Sewer, based on eliminating septic return flows in the Urban Growth Area. Particle tracking was used to assess flowpaths from sources and to sinks, and the effects of the presence of irrigation wells and their depths was assessed.

Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

2013-01-01

The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the smallest differences between simulated and observed values, within a given set of constraints. The potentiometric surface of the aquifer calculated during the 200-year initialization period established initial conditions for the transient simulation. Water levels for 38 observation wells were used to calibrate the 25-year simulation. Simulated hydraulic heads for the transient simulation were within plus or minus 20 feet of observed values for 95 percent of observation wells, and the mean absolute difference was 5.1 feet. Calibrated hydraulic conductivity ranged from 0.9 to 227 feet per day (ft/d). The annual recharge rates for the transient simulation (water years 1985–2009) ranged from 0.60 to 6.96 inches, with a mean of 3.68 inches for the Ogallala aquifer. This represents a mean recharge rate of 280.5 ft3/s for the model area. Discharge from the aquifer occurs through evapotranspiration, discharge to streams through river leakage and flow from springs and seeps, and well withdrawals. Water is withdrawn from wells for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock uses. Simulated mean discharge rates for water years 1985–2009 were about 185 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) for evapotranspiration, 66.7 ft3/s for discharge to streams, and 5.48 ft3/s for well withdrawals. Simulated annual evapotranspiration rates ranged from about 128 to 254 ft3/s, and outflow to streams ranged from 52.2 to 79.9 ft3/s. A sensitivity analysis was used to examine the response of the calibrated model to changes in model parameters for horizontal hydraulic conductivity, recharge, evapotranspiration, and spring and riverbed conductance. The model was most sensitive to recharge and maximum potential evapotranspiration and least sensitive to riverbed and spring conductances. Two potential future scenarios were simulated: a potential drought scenario and a potential increased pumping scenario. To simulate a potential drought scenario, a synthetic drought record was created, the mean of which was equal to 60 percent of the mean estimated recharge rate for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model (non-drought simulation), the simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 30 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. To simulate the effects of potential future increases in pumping, well withdrawal rates were increased by 50 percent from those estimated for the 25-year simulation period. Compared with the results of the calibrated model, the simulation representing an increased pumping scenario resulted in water-level decreases of as much as 26 feet for the Ogallala aquifer. Groundwater budgets for the potential future scenario simulations were compared with the transient simulation representing water years 1985–2009. The simulation representing a potential drought scenario resulted in lower aquifer recharge from precipitation and decreased discharge from streams, springs, seeps, and evapotranspiration. The simulation representing a potential increased pumping scenario was similar to results from the transient simulation, with a slight increase in well withdrawals and a slight decrease in discharge from river leakage and evapotranspiration. This numerical model is suitable as a tool that could be used to better understand the flow system of the Ogallala aquifer, to approximate hydraulic heads in the aquifer, and to estimate discharge to rivers, springs, and seeps in the study area. The model also is useful to help assess the response of the aquifer to additional stresses, including potential drought conditions and increased well withdrawals.

Groundwater flow model for the Little Plover River basin in Wisconsin’s Central Sands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ken Bradbury,; Fienen, Michael N.; Kniffin, Maribeth; Jacob Krause,; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Leaf, Andrew T.; Barlow, Paul M.

2017-01-01

The Little Plover River is a groundwater-fed stream in the sand plains region of central Wisconsin. In this region, sandy sediment deposited during or soon after the last glaciation forms an important unconfined sand and gravel aquifer. This aquifer supplies water for numerous high-capacity irrigation, municipal, and industrial wells that support a thriving agricultural industry. In recent years the addition of many new wells, combined with observed diminished flows in the Little Plover and other nearby rivers, has raised concerns about the impacts of the wells on groundwater levels and on water levels and flows in nearby lakes, streams, and wetlands. Diverse stakeholder groups, including well operators, Growers, environmentalists, local land owners, and regulatory and government officials have sought a better understanding of the local groundwater-surface water system and have a shared desire to balance the water needs of the he liagricultural, industrial, and urban users with the maintenance and protection of groundwater-dependent natural resources. To help address these issues, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources requested that the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey and U.S. Geological Survey cooperatively develop a groundwater flow model that could be used to demonstrate the relationships among groundwater, surface water, and well withdrawals and also be a tool for testing and evaluating alternative water management strategies for the central sands region. Because of an abundance of previous studies, data availability, local interest, and existing regulatory constraints the model focuses on the Little Plover River watershed, but the modeling methodology developed during this study can apply to much of the larger central sands of Wisconsin. The Little Plover River groundwater flow model simulates three-dimensional groundwater movement in and around the Little Plover River basin under steady-state and transient conditions. This model explicitly includes all high-capacity wells in the model domain and simulates seasonal variations in recharge and well pumping. The model represents the Little Plover River, and other significant streams and drainage ditches in the model domain, as fully connected to the groundwater system, computes stream base flow resulting from groundwater discharge, and routes the flow along the stream channel. A separate soil-water-balance (SWB) model was used to develop groundwater recharge arrays as input for the groundwater flow model. The SWB model uses topography, soils, land use, and climatic data to estimate recharge as deep drainage from the soil zone. The SWB model explicitly includes recharge originating as irrigation water, and computes irrigation using techniques similar to those used by local irrigation operators. The groundwater flow model uses the U.S. Geological Survey’s MODFLOW modeling code which is freely available, widely accepted, and commonly used by the groundwater community. The groundwater flow model and the SWB model use identical high-resolution numerical grids having model cells 100 feet on a side, with physical properties assigned to each grid cell. This grid allows accurate geographic placement of wells, streams, and other model features. The 3-dimensional grid has three layers; layers 1 and 2 represent the sand and gravel aquifer and layer 3 represents the underlying sandstone. The distribution of material properties in the model (hydraulic conductivity, aquifer thickness, etc.) comes from previous published geologic studies of the region, updated by calibration to recent streamflow and groundwater level data. The SWB model operates on a daily time step. The groundwater flow model was calibrated to monthly stress periods with time steps ranging from 1 to 16 days. More detailed time discretization is possible. The groundwater model was calibrated to water-level and streamflow data collected during 2013 and 2014 by adjusting model parameters (primarily hydraulic conductivity, storage, and recharge) until the model produced a conditionally optimal fit between field observations and model output, subject to consistency with previously published geologic studies. Calibration was performed under both steady and transient conditions, and used a sophisticated parameter-estimation procedure (PEST) for the calibration process and to identify important model parameters. For the Little Plover River, the two most important parameters are the global recharge multiplier and the hydraulic conductivity of the stream bed. The calibrated model produces water-level and mass-balance results that are consistent with field observations and previous studies of the area. The completed model is a powerful tool for testing and demonstrating alternative water-management scenarios. Example model applications described in this report include simulating how the cumulative impacts of pumping and land-use change have affected average baseflow in the Little Plover River. Depletion-potential mapping represents a method for predicting which wells and well locations have the greatest impact on nearby surface-water resources. The completed model is publicly available, along with a companion user’s guide to assist with its operation, at http://wgnhs.org/littleplover- river-groundwater-model.

Using sensitivity analysis in model calibration efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiedeman, Claire; Hill, Mary C.

2003-01-01

In models of natural and engineered systems, sensitivity analysis can be used to assess relations among system state observations, model parameters, and model predictions. The model itself links these three entities, and model sensitivities can be used to quantify the links. Sensitivities are defined as the derivatives of simulated quantities (such as simulated equivalents of observations, or model predictions) with respect to model parameters. We present four measures calculated from model sensitivities that quantify the observation-parameter-prediction links and that are especially useful during the calibration and prediction phases of modeling. These four measures are composite scaled sensitivities (CSS), prediction scaled sensitivities (PSS), the value of improved information (VOII) statistic, and the observation prediction (OPR) statistic. These measures can be used to help guide initial calibration of models, collection of field data beneficial to model predictions, and recalibration of models updated with new field information. Once model sensitivities have been calculated, each of the four measures requires minimal computational effort. We apply the four measures to a three-layer MODFLOW-2000 (Harbaugh et al., 2000; Hill et al., 2000) model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system (DVRFS), located in southern Nevada and California. D’Agnese et al. (1997, 1999) developed and calibrated the model using nonlinear regression methods. Figure 1 shows some of the observations, parameters, and predictions for the DVRFS model. Observed quantities include hydraulic heads and spring flows. The 23 defined model parameters include hydraulic conductivities, vertical anisotropies, recharge rates, evapotranspiration rates, and pumpage. Predictions of interest for this regional-scale model are advective transport paths from potential contamination sites underlying the Nevada Test Site and Yucca Mountain.

Numerical model of a tracer test on the Santa Clara River, Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nishikawa, Tracy; Paybins, Katherine S.; Izbicki, John A.; Reichard, Eric G.

1999-01-01

To better understand the flow processes, solute-transport processes, and ground-water/surface-water interactions on the Santa Clara River in Ventura County, California, a 24-hour fluorescent-dye tracer study was performed under steady-state flow conditions on a 45-km reach of the river. The study reach includes perennial (uppermost and lowermost) subreaches and ephemeral subreaches of the lower Piru Creek and the middle Santa Clara River. The tracer-test data were used to calibrate a one-dimensional flow model (DAFLOW) and a solute-transport model (BLTM). The dye-arrival times at each sample location were simulated by calibrating the velocity parameters in DAFLOW. The simulations of dye transport indicated that (1) ground-water recharge explains the loss of mass in the ephemeral middle subreaches, and (2) groundwater recharge does not explain the loss of mass in the perennial uppermost and lowermost subreaches. The observed tracer curves in the perennial subreaches were indicative of sorptive dye losses, transient storage, and (or) photodecay - these phenomena were simulated using a linear decay term. However, analysis of the linear decay terms indicated that photodecay was not a dominant source of dye loss.To better understand the flow processes, solute-transport processes, and ground-water/surface-water interactions on the Santa Clara River in Ventura County, California, a 24-hour fluorescent-dye tracer study was performed under steady-state flow conditions on a 45-km reach of the river. The study reach includes perennial (uppermost and lowermost) subreaches and ephemeral subreaches of the lower Piru Creek and the middle Santa Clara River. The tracer-test data were used to calibrate a one-dimension-al flow model (DAFLOW) and a solute-transport model (BLTM). The dye-arrival times at each sample location were simulated by calibrating the velocity parameters in DAFLOW. The simulations of dye transport indicated that (1) ground-water recharge explains the loss of mass in the ephemeral middle subreaches, and (2) ground-water recharge does not explain the loss of mass in the perennial uppermost and lowermost subreaches. The observed tracer curves in the perennial subreaches were indicative of sorptive dye losses, transient storage, and (or) photodecay - these phenomena were simulated using a linear decay term. However, analysis of the linear decay terms indicated that photodecay was not a dominant source of dye loss.

Oxygen-Mass-Flow Calibration Cell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Robert E.

1996-01-01

Proposed calibration standard for mass flow rate of oxygen based on conduction of oxygen ions through solid electrolyte membrane made of zirconia and heated to temperature of 1,000 degrees C. Flow of oxygen ions proportional to applied electric current. Unaffected by variations in temperature and pressure, and requires no measurement of volume. Calibration cell based on concept used to calibrate variety of medical and scientific instruments required to operate with precise rates of flow of oxygen.

Power Doppler signal calibration between ultrasound machines by use of a capillary-flow phantom for pannus vascularity in rheumatoid finger joints: a basic study.

PubMed

Sakano, Ryosuke; Kamishima, Tamotsu; Nishida, Mutsumi; Horie, Tatsunori

2015-01-01

Ultrasound allows the detection and grading of inflammation in rheumatology. Despite these advantages of ultrasound in the management of rheumatoid patients, it is well known that there are significant machine-to-machine disagreements regarding signal quantification. In this study, we tried to calibrate the power Doppler (PD) signal of two models of ultrasound machines by using a capillary-flow phantom. After flow velocity analysis in the perfusion cartridge at various injection rates (0.1-0.5 ml/s), we measured the signal count in the perfusion cartridge at various injection rates and pulse repetition frequencies (PRFs) by using PD, perfusing an ultrasound micro-bubble contrast agent diluted with normal saline simulating human blood. By use of the data from two models of ultrasound machines, Aplio 500 (Toshiba) and Avius (Hitachi Aloka), the quantitative PD (QPD) index [the summation of the colored pixels in a 1 cm × 1 cm rectangular region of interest (ROI)] was calculated via Image J (internet free software). We found a positive correlation between the injection rate and the flow velocity. In Aplio 500 and Avius, we found negative correlations between the PRF and the QPD index when the flow velocity was constant, and a positive correlation between flow velocity and the QPD index at constant PRF. The equation for the relationship of the PRF between Aplio 500 and Avius was: y = 0.023x + 0.36 [y = PRF of Avius (kHz), x = PRF of Aplio 500 (kHz)]. Our results suggested that the signal calibration of various models of ultrasound machines is possible by adjustment of the PRF setting.

Uncertainty analysis of a groundwater flow model in East-central Florida.

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Doherty, John

2015-01-01

A groundwater flow model for east-central Florida has been developed to help water-resource managers assess the impact of increased groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system on heads and spring flows originating from the Upper Floridan Aquifer. The model provides a probabilistic description of predictions of interest to water-resource managers, given the uncertainty associated with system heterogeneity, the large number of input parameters, and a nonunique groundwater flow solution. The uncertainty associated with these predictions can then be considered in decisions with which the model has been designed to assist. The "Null Space Monte Carlo" method is a stochastic probabilistic approach used to generate a suite of several hundred parameter field realizations, each maintaining the model in a calibrated state, and each considered to be hydrogeologically plausible. The results presented herein indicate that the model's capacity to predict changes in heads or spring flows that originate from increased groundwater withdrawals is considerably greater than its capacity to predict the absolute magnitudes of heads or spring flows. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to make predictions that are similar in location and in type to those in the calibration dataset exceeds its capacity to make predictions of different types at different locations. The quantification of these outcomes allows defensible use of the modeling process in support of future water-resources decisions. The model allows the decision-making process to recognize the uncertainties, and the spatial or temporal variability of uncertainties that are associated with predictions of future system behavior in a complex hydrogeological context. © 2014, National Ground Water Association.

Detecting influential observations in nonlinear regression modeling of groundwater flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yager, Richard M.

1998-01-01

Nonlinear regression is used to estimate optimal parameter values in models of groundwater flow to ensure that differences between predicted and observed heads and flows do not result from nonoptimal parameter values. Parameter estimates can be affected, however, by observations that disproportionately influence the regression, such as outliers that exert undue leverage on the objective function. Certain statistics developed for linear regression can be used to detect influential observations in nonlinear regression if the models are approximately linear. This paper discusses the application of Cook's D, which measures the effect of omitting a single observation on a set of estimated parameter values, and the statistical parameter DFBETAS, which quantifies the influence of an observation on each parameter. The influence statistics were used to (1) identify the influential observations in the calibration of a three-dimensional, groundwater flow model of a fractured-rock aquifer through nonlinear regression, and (2) quantify the effect of omitting influential observations on the set of estimated parameter values. Comparison of the spatial distribution of Cook's D with plots of model sensitivity shows that influential observations correspond to areas where the model heads are most sensitive to certain parameters, and where predicted groundwater flow rates are largest. Five of the six discharge observations were identified as influential, indicating that reliable measurements of groundwater flow rates are valuable data in model calibration. DFBETAS are computed and examined for an alternative model of the aquifer system to identify a parameterization error in the model design that resulted in overestimation of the effect of anisotropy on horizontal hydraulic conductivity.

Sediment Transport of Fine Sand to Fine Gravel on Transverse Bed Slopes in Rotating Annular Flume Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baar, Anne W.; de Smit, Jaco; Uijttewaal, Wim S. J.; Kleinhans, Maarten G.

2018-01-01

Large-scale morphology, in particular meander bend depth, bar dimensions, and bifurcation dynamics, are greatly affected by the deflection of sediment transport on transverse bed slopes due to gravity and by secondary flows. Overestimating the transverse bed slope effect in morphodynamic models leads to flattening of the morphology, while underestimating leads to unrealistically steep bars and banks and a higher braiding index downstream. However, existing transverse bed slope predictors are based on a small set of experiments with a minor range of flow conditions and sediment sizes, and in practice models are calibrated on measured morphology. The objective of this research is to experimentally quantify the transverse bed slope effect for a large range of near-bed flow conditions with varying secondary flow intensity, sediment sizes (0.17-4 mm), sediment transport mode, and bed state to test existing predictors. We conducted over 200 experiments in a rotating annular flume with counterrotating floor, which allows control of the secondary flow intensity separate from the streamwise flow velocity. Flow velocity vectors were determined with a calibrated analytical model accounting for rough bed conditions. We isolated separate effects of all important parameters on the transverse slope. Resulting equilibrium transverse slopes show a clear trend with varying sediment mobilities and secondary flow intensities that deviate from known predictors depending on Shields number, and strongly depend on bed state and sediment transport mode. Fitted functions are provided for application in morphodynamic modeling.

Effect of heteroscedasticity treatment in residual error models on model calibration and prediction uncertainty estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruochen; Yuan, Huiling; Liu, Xiaoli

2017-11-01

The heteroscedasticity treatment in residual error models directly impacts the model calibration and prediction uncertainty estimation. This study compares three methods to deal with the heteroscedasticity, including the explicit linear modeling (LM) method and nonlinear modeling (NL) method using hyperbolic tangent function, as well as the implicit Box-Cox transformation (BC). Then a combined approach (CA) combining the advantages of both LM and BC methods has been proposed. In conjunction with the first order autoregressive model and the skew exponential power (SEP) distribution, four residual error models are generated, namely LM-SEP, NL-SEP, BC-SEP and CA-SEP, and their corresponding likelihood functions are applied to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model over the Huaihe River basin, China. Results show that the LM-SEP yields the poorest streamflow predictions with the widest uncertainty band and unrealistic negative flows. The NL and BC methods can better deal with the heteroscedasticity and hence their corresponding predictive performances are improved, yet the negative flows cannot be avoided. The CA-SEP produces the most accurate predictions with the highest reliability and effectively avoids the negative flows, because the CA approach is capable of addressing the complicated heteroscedasticity over the study basin.

Thermal Analysis of a Carbon Fiber Rope Barrier for Use in the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor Nozzle Joint-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, J. Louie

2002-01-01

This study provides development and verification of analysis methods used to assess performance of a carbon fiber rope (CFR) thermal barrier system that is currently being qualified for use in Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle joint-2. Modeled geometry for flow calculations considers the joint to be vented with the porous CFR barriers placed in the 'open' assembly gap. Model development is based on a 1-D volume filling approach where flow resistances (assembly gap and CFRs) are defined by serially connected internal flow and the porous media 'Darcy' relationships. Combustion gas flow rates are computed using the volume filling code by assuming a lumped distribution total joint fill volume on a per linear circumferential inch basis. Gas compressibility, friction and heat transfer are included in the modeling. Gas-to-wall heat transfer is simulated by concurrent solution of the compressible flow equations and a large thermal 2-D finite element (FE) conduction grid. The derived numerical technique loosely couples the FE conduction matrix with the compressible gas flow equations. Free constants that appear in the governing equations are calibrated by parametric model comparison to hot fire subscale test results. The calibrated model is then used to make full-scale motor predictions using RSRM aft dome environments. Model results indicate that CFR thermal barrier systems will provide a thermally benign and controlled pressurization environment for the RSRM nozzle joint-2 primary seal activation.

Thermal Analysis of a Carbon Fiber Rope Barrier for Use in the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor Nozzle Joint-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, J. Louie; Phelps, Lisa (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This study provides for development and verification of analysis methods used to assess performance of a carbon fiber rope (CFR) thermal barrier system that is currently being qualified for use in Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle joint-2. Modeled geometry for flow calculations considers the joint to be vented with the porous CFR barriers placed in the "open' assembly gap. Model development is based on a 1-D volume filling approach where flow resistances (assembly gap and CFRs) are defined by serially connected internal flow and the porous media "Darcy" relationships. Combustion gas flow rates are computed using the volume filling code by assuming a lumped distribution total joint fill volume on a per linear circumferential inch basis. Gas compressibility, friction and heat transfer are included in the modeling. Gas-to-wall heat transfer is simulated by concurrent solution of the compressible flow equations and a large thermal 2-D finite element (FE) conduction grid. The derived numerical technique loosely couples the FE conduction matrix with the compressible gas flow equations, Free constants that appear in the governing equations are calibrated by parametric model comparison to hot fire subscale test results. The calibrated model is then used to make full-scale motor predictions using RSRM aft dome environments. Model results indicate that CFR thermal barrier systems will provide a thermally benign and controlled pressurization environment for the RSRM nozzle joint-2 primary seal activation.

Calibration of Axisymmetric and Quasi-1D Solvers for High Enthalpy Nozzles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Papadopoulos, P. E.; Gochberg, L. A.; Tokarcik-Polsky, S.; Venkatapathy, E.; Deiwert, G. S.; Edwards, Thomas A. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The proposed paper will present a numerical investigation of the flow characteristics and boundary layer development in the nozzles of high enthalpy shock tunnel facilities used for hypersonic propulsion testing. The computed flow will be validated against existing experimental data. Pitot pressure data obtained at the entrance of the test cabin will be used to validate the numerical simulations. It is necessary to accurately model the facility nozzles in order to characterize the test article flow conditions. Initially the axisymmetric nozzle flow will be computed using a Navier Stokes solver for a range of reservoir conditions. The calculated solutions will be compared and calibrated against available experimental data from the DLR HEG piston-driven shock tunnel and the 16-inch shock tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center. The Reynolds number is assumed to be high enough at the throat that the boundary layer flow is assumed turbulent at this point downstream. The real gas affects will be examined. In high Mach number facilities the boundary layer is thick. Attempts will be made to correlate the boundary layer displacement thickness. The displacement thickness correlation will be used to calibrate the quasi-1D codes NENZF and LSENS in order to provide fast and efficient tools of characterizing the facility nozzles. The calibrated quasi-1D codes will be implemented to study the effects of chemistry and the flow condition variations at the test section due to small variations in the driver gas conditions.

Development and application of a hillslope hydrologic model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blain, C.A.; Milly, P.C.D.

1991-01-01

A vertically integrated two-dimensional lateral flow model of soil moisture has been developed. Derivation of the governing equation is based on a physical interpretation of hillslope processes. The lateral subsurface-flow model permits variability of precipitation and evapotranspiration, and allows arbitrary specification of soil-moisture retention properties. Variable slope, soil thickness, and saturation are all accommodated. The numerical solution method, a Crank-Nicolson, finite-difference, upstream-weighted scheme, is simple and robust. A small catchment in northeastern Kansas is the subject of an application of the lateral subsurface-flow model. Calibration of the model using observed discharge provides estimates of the active porosity (0.1 cm3/cm3) and of the saturated horizontal hydraulic conductivity (40 cm/hr). The latter figure is at least an order of magnitude greater than the vertical hydraulic conductivity associated with the silty clay loam soil matrix. The large value of hydraulic conductivity derived from the calibration is suggestive of macropore-dominated hillslope drainage. The corresponding value of active porosity agrees well with a published average value of the difference between total porosity and field capacity for a silty clay loam. ?? 1991.

Towards a simple representation of chalk hydrology in land surface modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mostaquimur; Rosolem, Rafael

2017-01-01

Modelling and monitoring of hydrological processes in the unsaturated zone of chalk, a porous medium with fractures, is important to optimize water resource assessment and management practices in the United Kingdom (UK). However, incorporating the processes governing water movement through a chalk unsaturated zone in a numerical model is complicated mainly due to the fractured nature of chalk that creates high-velocity preferential flow paths in the subsurface. In general, flow through a chalk unsaturated zone is simulated using the dual-porosity concept, which often involves calibration of a relatively large number of model parameters, potentially undermining applications to large regions. In this study, a simplified parameterization, namely the Bulk Conductivity (BC) model, is proposed for simulating hydrology in a chalk unsaturated zone. This new parameterization introduces only two additional parameters (namely the macroporosity factor and the soil wetness threshold parameter for fracture flow activation) and uses the saturated hydraulic conductivity from the chalk matrix. The BC model is implemented in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) and applied to a study area encompassing the Kennet catchment in the southern UK. This parameterization is further calibrated at the point scale using soil moisture profile observations. The performance of the calibrated BC model in JULES is assessed and compared against the performance of both the default JULES parameterization and the uncalibrated version of the BC model implemented in JULES. Finally, the model performance at the catchment scale is evaluated against independent data sets (e.g. runoff and latent heat flux). The results demonstrate that the inclusion of the BC model in JULES improves simulated land surface mass and energy fluxes over the chalk-dominated Kennet catchment. Therefore, the simple approach described in this study may be used to incorporate the flow processes through a chalk unsaturated zone in large-scale land surface modelling applications.

Detached-Eddy Simulation Based on the V2-F Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jee, Sol Keun; Shariff, Karim R.

2012-01-01

Detached-eddy simulation (DES) based on the v(sup 2)-f Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model is developed and tested. The v(sup 2)-f model incorporates the anisotropy of near-wall turbulence which is absent in other RANS models commonly used in the DES community. The v(sup 2)-f RANS model is modified in order the proposed v(sup 2)-f-based DES formulation reduces to a transport equation for the subgrid-scale kinetic energy isotropic turbulence. First, three coefficients in the elliptic relaxation equation are modified, which is tested in channel flows with friction Reynolds number up to 2000. Then, the proposed v(sup 2)-f DES model formulation is derived. The constant, C(sub DES), required in the DES formulation was calibrated by simulating both decaying and statistically-steady isotropic turbulence. After C(sub DES) was calibrated, the v(sub 2)-f DES formulation is tested for flow around a circular cylinder at a Reynolds number of 3900, in which case turbulence develops after separation. Simulations indicate that this model represents the turbulent wake nearly as accurately as the dynamic Smagorinsky model. Spalart-Allmaras-based DES is also included in the cylinder flow simulation for comparison.

Uncertainty analysis of a groundwater flow model in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Doherty, John E.

2014-01-01

A groundwater flow model for east-central Florida has been developed to help water-resource managers assess the impact of increased groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system on heads and spring flows originating from the Upper Floridan aquifer. The model provides a probabilistic description of predictions of interest to water-resource managers, given the uncertainty associated with system heterogeneity, the large number of input parameters, and a nonunique groundwater flow solution. The uncertainty associated with these predictions can then be considered in decisions with which the model has been designed to assist. The “Null Space Monte Carlo” method is a stochastic probabilistic approach used to generate a suite of several hundred parameter field realizations, each maintaining the model in a calibrated state, and each considered to be hydrogeologically plausible. The results presented herein indicate that the model’s capacity to predict changes in heads or spring flows that originate from increased groundwater withdrawals is considerably greater than its capacity to predict the absolute magnitudes of heads or spring flows. Furthermore, the capacity of the model to make predictions that are similar in location and in type to those in the calibration dataset exceeds its capacity to make predictions of different types at different locations. The quantification of these outcomes allows defensible use of the modeling process in support of future water-resources decisions. The model allows the decision-making process to recognize the uncertainties, and the spatial/temporal variability of uncertainties that are associated with predictions of future system behavior in a complex hydrogeological context.

Quantitative blood flow measurements in the small animal cardiopulmonary system using digital subtraction angiography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin Mingde; Marshall, Craig T.; Qi, Yi

Purpose: The use of preclinical rodent models of disease continues to grow because these models help elucidate pathogenic mechanisms and provide robust test beds for drug development. Among the major anatomic and physiologic indicators of disease progression and genetic or drug modification of responses are measurements of blood vessel caliber and flow. Moreover, cardiopulmonary blood flow is a critical indicator of gas exchange. Current methods of measuring cardiopulmonary blood flow suffer from some or all of the following limitations--they produce relative values, are limited to global measurements, do not provide vasculature visualization, are not able to measure acute changes, aremore » invasive, or require euthanasia. Methods: In this study, high-spatial and high-temporal resolution x-ray digital subtraction angiography (DSA) was used to obtain vasculature visualization, quantitative blood flow in absolute metrics (ml/min instead of arbitrary units or velocity), and relative blood volume dynamics from discrete regions of interest on a pixel-by-pixel basis (100x100 {mu}m{sup 2}). Results: A series of calibrations linked the DSA flow measurements to standard physiological measurement using thermodilution and Fick's method for cardiac output (CO), which in eight anesthetized Fischer-344 rats was found to be 37.0{+-}5.1 ml/min. Phantom experiments were conducted to calibrate the radiographic density to vessel thickness, allowing a link of DSA cardiac output measurements to cardiopulmonary blood flow measurements in discrete regions of interest. The scaling factor linking relative DSA cardiac output measurements to the Fick's absolute measurements was found to be 18.90xCO{sub DSA}=CO{sub Fick}. Conclusions: This calibrated DSA approach allows repeated simultaneous visualization of vasculature and measurement of blood flow dynamics on a regional level in the living rat.« less

Simulation of hydrodynamics and solute transport in the Pamlico River estuary, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bales, Jerad; Robbins, Jeanne C.

1995-01-01

An investigation was conducted to characterize flow, circulation, and solute transport in the Pamlico River estuary, North Carolina. The study included a detailed field-measurement program and the calibration, validation, and application of a physically realistic numerical model of hydro- dynamics and transport. Water level, salinity, water temperature, wind speed and direction, and current data were collected during March 1988 through September 1992, and were used to characterize physical conditions in the estuary. Data from pre- existing streamflow gaging stations and meteoro- logical stations were also used. A two-dimensional vertically averaged hydrodynamic and solute transport model was applied to the 48-kilometer study reach. The model domain was discretized into 5,620 separate 200- by 200-meter computational cells. Model calibration was achieved through adjustment of parameters for June 14-30, 1991. Data from selected periods in 1989 and 1991 were used for model validation. Water levels used for model calibration and validation ranged from -0.052 to 0.698 meter; salinities ranged from 0.1 to 13.1 parts per thousand; and wind speeds ranged from calm to 22 meters per second. The model was tested for stratified and unstratified conditions. Simulated and observed data were used to evaluate model performance. The calibrated model was applied for selected periods in 1989 and 1991. Instantaneous flows were simulated at each boundary and at mid- estuary. Circulation patterns were characterized using vector plots, particle tracking, and solute transport. Particle tracks showed that materials released at mid-estuary may remain in the system for 25 days or longer.

Calibrating the Helium Pressurization System for the Space Shuttle Liquid-Hydrogen Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2008-01-01

Analysis of the results from the STS-114 tanking tests and subsequent launch called into question existing thermal and mass models of helium pressurization of the liquid hydrogen tank. This hydrogen tank, which makes up the bottom two-thirds of the External Tank, is pressurized prior to launch to avoid cavitation in the Shuttle Main Engine pumps. At about 2 minutes prior to launch, the main vent valve is closed, and pressurized helium flows into the tank ullage space to achieve set point pressure. As the helium gas cools, its pressure drops, calling for additional helium. Subsequent helium flows are provided in short, timed pulses. The number of pulses is taken as a rough leak indicator. An analysis of thermal models by Marshall Space Flight Center showed considerable uncertainty in the pressure-versus-time behavior of the helium ullage space and the ability to predict the number of pulses normally expected. Kennedy Space Center proposed to calibrate the dime-sized orifice, which together with valves, controls the helium flow quantity (Figure 1). Pressure and temperature sensors were installed to provide upstream and downstream measurements necessary to compute flow rate based on the orifice discharge coefficient. An assessment of flow testing with helium indicated an extremely costly use of this critical resource. In order to reduce costs, we proposed removing the orifices from each Mobile Launcher Platform (MLP) and asking Colorado Engineering Experiment Station Inc. (CEESI) to calibrate the flow. CEESI has a high-pressure air flow system with traceable flow meters capable of handling the large flow rates. However, literature research indicated that square-edged orifices of small diameters often exhibit significant hysteresis and nonrepeatability in the vicinity of choked or sonic flow. Fortunately, the MLP orifices behaved relatively well in testing (Figure 2). Using curve fitting of the air-flow data, in conjunction with ASME orifice modeling equations, a method of relating the helium mass flow to measured air flow data was obtained. This analysis showed that the highest uncertainty in flow occurred in the vicinity of the choking pressure ratio, as would be expected. In addition, analysis of typical flow pulses showed that most of the helium flow occurred either well below or well above this uncertain area. The final result is the ability to provide postlaunch estimates of helium mass flows that are within 1.5 percent of the actual value.

Simulation of Surface-Water Conditions in the Nontidal Passaic River Basin, New Jersey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spitz, Frederick J.

2007-01-01

The Passaic River Basin, the third largest drainage basin in New Jersey, encompasses 950 mi2 (square miles) in the highly urbanized area outside New York City, with a population of 2 million. Water quality in the basin is affected by many natural and anthropogenic factors. Nutrient loading to the Wanaque Reservoir in the northern part of the basin is of particular concern and is caused partly by the diversion of water at two downstream intakes that is transferred back upstream to refill the reservoir. The larger of these diversions, Wanaque South intake, is on the lower Pompton River near Two Bridges, New Jersey. To support the development of a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for nutrients in the nontidal part of the basin (805 mi2), a water-quality transport model was needed. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and New Jersey EcoComplex, developed a flow-routing model to provide the hydraulic inputs to the water-quality model. The Diffusion Analogy Flow model (DAFLOW) described herein was designed for integration with the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) watershed water-quality model. The flow routing model was used to simulate flow in 108 miles of the Passaic River and major tributaries. Flow data from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations represent most of the model's upstream boundaries. Other model inputs include estimated flows for ungaged tributaries and unchanneled drainage along the mainstem, and reported flows for major point-source discharges and diversions. The former flows were calibrated using the drainage-area ratio method. The simulation extended over a 4+ year period representing a range in flow conditions. Simulated channel cross-sectional geometry in the DAFLOW model was calibrated using several different approaches by adjusting area and top width parameters. The model also was calibrated to observed flows for water year 2001 (low flow) at five mainstem gaging stations and one station at which flow was estimated. The model's target range was medium to low flows--the range of typical intake operations. Simulated flow mass balance, hydrographs (flood-wave speed, attenuation, and spread), flow-duration curves, and velocity and depth values were compared to observed counterparts. Mass balance and hydrograph fit were evaluated quantitatively. Simulation results generally were within the accuracy of the flow data at the measurement stations. The model was validated to observed flows for water years 2000 (average flow), 2002 (extreme low flow), and 2003 (high flow). Results for 19 of 20 comparisons indicate average mass-balance and model-fit errors of 6.6 and 15.7 percent, respectively, indicating that the model reasonably represents the time variation of streamflow in the nontidal Passaic River Basin. An algorithm (subroutine) also was developed for DAFLOW to simulate the hydraulic mixing that occurs near the Wanaque South intake upstream from the confluence of the Pompton and Passaic Rivers. The intake draws water from multiple sources, including effluent from a nearby wastewater-treatment plant, all of which have different phosphorus loads. The algorithm determines the proportion of flow from each source and operates within a narrow flow range. The equations used in the algorithm are based on the theory of diffusion and lateral mixing in rivers. Parameters used in the equations were estimated from limited available local flow and water-quality data. As expected, simulation results for water years 2000, 2001, and 2003 indicate that most of the water drawn to the intake comes from the Pompton River; however, during many short periods of low flow and high diversion, particularly in water year 2002, entrainment of the other flow sources compensated for the insufficient flow in the Pompton River. As additional verification of the flow model used in the water-quality model, a Branched Lagrangian Transport Model (B

Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-11-01

Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For peak values taking flood forecasts from each individual member into account is more appropriate.

Use of Cloud Computing to Calibrate a Highly Parameterized Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayley, K. H.; Schumacher, J.; MacMillan, G.; Boutin, L.

2012-12-01

We present a case study using cloud computing to facilitate the calibration of a complex and highly parameterized model of regional groundwater flow. The calibration dataset consisted of many (~1500) measurements or estimates of static hydraulic head, a high resolution time series of groundwater extraction and disposal rates at 42 locations and pressure monitoring at 147 locations with a total of more than one million raw measurements collected over a ten year pumping history, and base flow estimates at 5 surface water monitoring locations. This modeling project was undertaken to assess the sustainability of groundwater withdrawal and disposal plans for insitu heavy oil extraction in Northeast Alberta, Canada. The geological interpretations used for model construction were based on more than 5,000 wireline logs collected throughout the 30,865 km2 regional study area (RSA), and resulted in a model with 28 slices, and 28 hydro stratigraphic units (average model thickness of 700 m, with aquifers ranging from a depth of 50 to 500 m below ground surface). The finite element FEFLOW model constructed on this geological interpretation had 331,408 nodes and required 265 time steps to simulate the ten year transient calibration period. This numerical model of groundwater flow required 3 hours to run on a on a server with two, 2.8 GHz processers and 16 Gb. RAM. Calibration was completed using PEST. Horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity as well as specific storage for each unit were independent parameters. For the recharge and the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the three aquifers with the most transient groundwater use, a pilot point parameterization was adopted. A 7*7 grid of pilot points was defined over the RSA that defined a spatially variable horizontal hydraulic conductivity or recharge field. A 7*7 grid of multiplier pilot points that perturbed the more regional field was then superimposed over the 3,600 km2 local study area (LSA). The pilot point multipliers were implemented so a higher resolution of spatial variability could be obtained where there was a higher density of observation data. Five geologic boundaries were modeled with a specified flux boundary condition and the transfer rate was used as an adjustable parameter for each of these boundaries. This parameterization resulted in 448 parameters for calibration. In the project planning stage it was estimated that the calibration might require as much 15,000 hours (1.7 years) of computing. In an effort to complete the calibration in a timely manner, the inversion was parallelized and implemented on as many as 250 computing nodes located on Amazon's EC2 servers. The results of the calibration provided a better fit to the data than previous efforts with homogenous parameters, and the highly parameterized approach facilitated subspace Monte Carlo analysis for predictive uncertainty. This scale of cloud computing is relatively new for the hydrogeology community and at the time of implementation it was believed to be the first implementation of FEFLOW model at this scale. While the experience provided several challenges, the implementation was successful and provides some valuable learning for future efforts.

Modeling GPR data to interpret porosity and DNAPL saturations for calibration of a 3-D multiphase flow simulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sneddon, Kristen W.; Powers, Michael H.; Johnson, Raymond H.; Poeter, Eileen P.

2002-01-01

Dense nonaqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) are a pervasive and persistent category of groundwater contamination. In an effort to better understand their unique subsurface behavior, a controlled and carefully monitored injection of PCE (perchloroethylene), a typical DNAPL, was performed in conjunction with the University of Waterloo at Canadian Forces Base Borden in 1991. Of the various geophysical methods used to monitor the migration of injected PCE, the U.S. Geological Survey collected 500-MHz ground penetrating radar (GPR) data. These data are used in determining calibration parameters for a multiphase flow simulation. GPR data were acquired over time on a fixed two-dimensional surficial grid as the DNAPL was injected into the subsurface. Emphasis is on the method of determining DNAPL saturation values from this time-lapse GPR data set. Interactive full-waveform GPR modeling of regularized field traces resolves relative dielectric permittivity versus depth profiles for pre-injection and later-time data. Modeled values are end members in recursive calculations of the Bruggeman-Hanai-Sen (BHS) mixing formula, yielding interpreted pre-injection porosity and post-injection DNAPL saturation values. The resulting interpreted physical properties of porosity and DNAPL saturation of the Borden test cell, defined on a grid spacing of 50 cm with 1-cm depth resolution, are used as observations for calibration of a 3-D multiphase flow simulation. Calculated values of DNAPL saturation in the subsurface at 14 and 22 hours after the start of injection, from both the GPR and the multiphase flow modeling, are interpolated volumetrically and presented for visual comparison.

Simulation of Flow, Sediment Transport, and Sediment Mobility of the Lower Coeur d'Alene River, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles; Tranmer, Andrew W.

2008-01-01

A one-dimensional sediment-transport model and a multi-dimensional hydraulic and bed shear stress model were developed to investigate the hydraulic, sediment transport, and sediment mobility characteristics of the lower Coeur d?Alene River in northern Idaho. This report documents the development and calibration of those models, as well as the results of model simulations. The one-dimensional sediment-transport model (HEC-6) was developed, calibrated, and used to simulate flow hydraulics and erosion, deposition, and transport of sediment in the lower Coeur d?Alene River. The HEC-6 modeled reach, comprised of 234 cross sections, extends from Enaville, Idaho, on the North Fork of the Coeur d?Alene River and near Pinehurst, Idaho, on the South Fork of the river to near Harrison, Idaho, on the main stem of the river. Bed-sediment samples collected by previous investigators and samples collected for this study in 2005 were used in the model. Sediment discharge curves from a previous study were updated using suspended-sediment samples collected at three sites since April 2000. The HEC-6 was calibrated using river discharge and water-surface elevations measured at five U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations. The calibrated HEC-6 model allowed simulation of management alternatives to assess erosion and deposition from proposed dredging of contaminated streambed sediments in the Dudley reach. Four management alternatives were simulated with HEC-6. Before the start of simulation for these alternatives, seven cross sections in the reach near Dudley, Idaho, were deepened 20 feet?removing about 296,000 cubic yards of sediments?to simulate dredging. Management alternative 1 simulated stage-discharge conditions from 2000, and alternative 2 simulated conditions from 1997. Results from alternatives 1 and 2 indicated that about 6,500 and 12,300 cubic yards, respectively, were deposited in the dredged reach. These figures represent 2 and 4 percent, respectively, of the total volume of dredged sediments removed before the start of simulation. In alternatives 3 and 4, the incoming total sediment discharges from the South Fork of the river were decreased by one-half. Management alternative 3 simulated stage-discharge conditions from 2000, and alternative 4 simulated conditions from 1997. Reducing incoming sediment discharge from the South Fork did not affect the streambed and deposition in the Dudley and downstream reaches, probably because the distance between the South Fork and the Dudley reach is long enough for sediment supply, transport capacity, and channel geometry to be balanced before reaching the Dudley and downstream reaches. Development and calibration of a multi-dimensional hydraulic and bed shear stress model (FASTMECH) allowed simulation of water-surface elevation, depth, velocity, bed shear stress, and sediment mobility in the Dudley reach (5.3 miles). The computational grid incorporated bathymetric and Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) data, with a node spacing of about 2.5 meters. With the exception of the fourth FASTMECH calibration simulation, results from the FASTMECH calibration simulations indicated that flow depths, flow velocities, and bed shear stresses increased as river discharge increased. Water-surface elevations in the fourth calibration simulation were about 2 feet higher than those in the other simulations because high lake levels in Coeur d?Alene Lake caused backwater conditions. Average simulated velocities along the thalweg ranged from about 3 to 5.3 feet per second, and maximum simulated velocities ranged from 3.9 to 7 feet per second. In the dredged reach, average simulated velocity along the thalweg ranged from 3.5 to 6 feet per second. The model also simulated several back-eddies (flow reversal); the largest eddy encompassed about one-third of the river width. Average bed shear stresses increased more than 200 percent from the first to the last simulation. Simulated sediment mobility, asses

SELECTION AND CALIBRATION OF SUBSURFACE REACTIVE TRANSPORT MODELS USING A SURROGATE-MODEL APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

While standard techniques for uncertainty analysis have been successfully applied to groundwater flow models, extension to reactive transport is frustrated by numerous difficulties, including excessive computational burden and parameter non-uniqueness. This research introduces a...

Hydrology of the Coastal Lowlands aquifer system in parts of Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Angel; Whiteman, C.D.

1999-01-01

Existing data on water levels, water use, water quality, and aquifer properties were used to construct a multilayer digital model to simulate flow in the aquifer system. The report describes the geohydrologic framework of the aquifer system, and the development, calibration, and sensitivity analysis of the ground-water-flow model, but it is primarily focused on the results of the simulations that show the natural flow of ground water throughout the regional aquifer system and the changes from the natural flow caused by development of ground-water supplies.

Simulating groundwater flow and runoff for the Oro Moraine aquifer system. Part II. Automated calibration and mass balance calculations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckers, J.; Frind, E. O.

2001-03-01

A steady-state groundwater model of the Oro Moraine aquifer system in Central Ontario, Canada, is developed. The model is used to identify the role of baseflow in the water balance of the Minesing Swamp, a 70 km 2 wetland of international significance. Lithologic descriptions are used to develop a hydrostratigraphic conceptual model of the aquifer system. The numerical model uses long-term averages to represent temporal variations of the flow regime and includes a mechanism to redistribute recharge in response to near-surface geologic heterogeneity. The model is calibrated to water level and streamflow measurements through inverse modeling. Observed baseflow and runoff quantities validate the water mass balance of the numerical model and provide information on the fraction of the water surplus that contributes to groundwater flow. The inverse algorithm is used to compare alternative model zonation scenarios, illustrating the power of non-linear regression in calibrating complex aquifer systems. The adjoint method is used to identify sensitive recharge areas for groundwater discharge to the Minesing Swamp. Model results suggest that nearby urban development will have a significant impact on baseflow to the swamp. Although the direct baseflow contribution makes up only a small fraction of the total inflow to the swamp, it provides an important steady influx of water over relatively large portions of the wetland. Urban development will also impact baseflow to the headwaters of local streams. The model provides valuable insight into crucial characteristics of the aquifer system although definite conclusions regarding details of its water budget are difficult to draw given current data limitations. The model therefore also serves to guide future data collection and studies of sub-areas within the basin.

Calibration of the Flow in the Test Section of the Research Wind Tunnel at DST Group

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-01

calibration of the flow in the test section of the Research Wind Tunnel at DST Group. The calibration was performed to establish the flow quality and to...of the Flow in the Test Section of the Research Wind Tunnel at DST Group Executive Summary The Defence Science and Technology Group (DST

Important observations and parameters for a salt water intrusion model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoemaker, W.B.

2004-01-01

Sensitivity analysis with a density-dependent ground water flow simulator can provide insight and understanding of salt water intrusion calibration problems far beyond what is possible through intuitive analysis alone. Five simple experimental simulations presented here demonstrate this point. Results show that dispersivity is a very important parameter for reproducing a steady-state distribution of hydraulic head, salinity, and flow in the transition zone between fresh water and salt water in a coastal aquifer system. When estimating dispersivity, the following conclusions can be drawn about the data types and locations considered. (1) The "toe" of the transition zone is the most effective location for hydraulic head and salinity observations. (2) Areas near the coastline where submarine ground water discharge occurs are the most effective locations for flow observations. (3) Salinity observations are more effective than hydraulic head observations. (4) The importance of flow observations aligned perpendicular to the shoreline varies dramatically depending on distance seaward from the shoreline. Extreme parameter correlation can prohibit unique estimation of permeability parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and flow parameters such as recharge in a density-dependent ground water flow model when using hydraulic head and salinity observations. Adding flow observations perpendicular to the shoreline in areas where ground water is exchanged with the ocean body can reduce the correlation, potentially resulting in unique estimates of these parameter values. Results are expected to be directly applicable to many complex situations, and have implications for model development whether or not formal optimization methods are used in model calibration.

Important observations and parameters for a salt water intrusion model.

PubMed

Shoemaker, W Barclay

2004-01-01

Sensitivity analysis with a density-dependent ground water flow simulator can provide insight and understanding of salt water intrusion calibration problems far beyond what is possible through intuitive analysis alone. Five simple experimental simulations presented here demonstrate this point. Results show that dispersivity is a very important parameter for reproducing a steady-state distribution of hydraulic head, salinity, and flow in the transition zone between fresh water and salt water in a coastal aquifer system. When estimating dispersivity, the following conclusions can be drawn about the data types and locations considered. (1) The "toe" of the transition zone is the most effective location for hydraulic head and salinity observations. (2) Areas near the coastline where submarine ground water discharge occurs are the most effective locations for flow observations. (3) Salinity observations are more effective than hydraulic head observations. (4) The importance of flow observations aligned perpendicular to the shoreline varies dramatically depending on distance seaward from the shoreline. Extreme parameter correlation can prohibit unique estimation of permeability parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and flow parameters such as recharge in a density-dependent ground water flow model when using hydraulic head and salinity observations. Adding flow observations perpendicular to the shoreline in areas where ground water is exchanged with the ocean body can reduce the correlation, potentially resulting in unique estimates of these parameter values. Results are expected to be directly applicable to many complex situations, and have implications for model development whether or not formal optimization methods are used in model calibration.

A simple approximation for larval retention around reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cetina-Heredia, Paulina; Connolly, Sean R.

2011-09-01

Estimating larval retention at individual reefs by local scale three-dimensional flows is a significant problem for understanding, and predicting, larval dispersal. Determining larval dispersal commonly involves the use of computationally demanding and expensively calibrated/validated hydrodynamic models that resolve reef wake eddies. This study models variation in larval retention times for a range of reef shapes and circulation regimes, using a reef-scale three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. It also explores how well larval retention time can be estimated based on the "Island Wake Parameter", a measure of the degree of flow turbulence in the wake of reefs that is a simple function of flow speed, reef dimension, and vertical diffusion. The mean residence times found in the present study (0.48-5.64 days) indicate substantial potential for self-recruitment of species whose larvae are passive, or weak swimmers, for the first several days after release. Results also reveal strong and significant relationships between the Island Wake Parameter and mean residence time, explaining 81-92% of the variability in retention among reefs across a range of unidirectional flow speeds and tidal regimes. These findings suggest that good estimates of larval retention may be obtained from relatively coarse-scale characteristics of the flow, and basic features of reef geomorphology. Such approximations may be a valuable tool for modeling connectivity and meta-population dynamics over large spatial scales, where explicitly characterizing fine-scale flows around reef requires a prohibitive amount of computation and extensive model calibration.

Utility of bromide and heat tracers for aquifer characterization affected by highly transient flow conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Rui; Zheng, Chunmiao; Zachara, John M.; Tonkin, Matthew

2012-08-01

A tracer test using both bromide and heat tracers conducted at the Integrated Field Research Challenge site in Hanford 300 Area (300A), Washington, provided an instrument for evaluating the utility of bromide and heat tracers for aquifer characterization. The bromide tracer data were critical to improving the calibration of the flow model complicated by the highly dynamic nature of the flow field. However, most bromide concentrations were obtained from fully screened observation wells, lacking depth-specific resolution for vertical characterization. On the other hand, depth-specific temperature data were relatively simple and inexpensive to acquire. However, temperature-driven fluid density effects influenced heat plume movement. Moreover, the temperature data contained "noise" caused by heating during fluid injection and sampling events. Using the hydraulic conductivity distribution obtained from the calibration of the bromide transport model, the temperature depth profiles and arrival times of temperature peaks simulated by the heat transport model were in reasonable agreement with observations. This suggested that heat can be used as a cost-effective proxy for solute tracers for calibration of the hydraulic conductivity distribution, especially in the vertical direction. However, a heat tracer test must be carefully designed and executed to minimize fluid density effects and sources of noise in temperature data. A sensitivity analysis also revealed that heat transport was most sensitive to hydraulic conductivity and porosity, less sensitive to thermal distribution factor, and least sensitive to thermal dispersion and heat conduction. This indicated that the hydraulic conductivity remains the primary calibration parameter for heat transport.

Utility of Bromide and Heat Tracers for Aquifer Characterization Affected by Highly Transient Flow Conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Rui; Zheng, Chunmiao; Zachara, John M.

A tracer test using both bromide and heat tracers conducted at the Integrated Field Research Challenge site in Hanford 300 Area (300A), Washington, provided an instrument for evaluating the utility of bromide and heat tracers for aquifer characterization. The bromide tracer data were critical to improving the calibration of the flow model complicated by the highly dynamic nature of the flow field. However, most bromide concentrations were obtained from fully screened observation wells, lacking depth-specific resolution for vertical characterization. On the other hand, depth-specific temperature data were relatively simple and inexpensive to acquire. However, temperature-driven fluid density effects influenced heatmore » plume movement. Moreover, the temperature data contained “noise” caused by heating during fluid injection and sampling events. Using the hydraulic conductivity distribution obtained from the calibration of the bromide transport model, the temperature depth profiles and arrival times of temperature peaks simulated by the heat transport model were in reasonable agreement with observations. This suggested that heat can be used as a cost-effective proxy for solute tracers for calibration of the hydraulic conductivity distribution, especially in the vertical direction. However, a heat tracer test must be carefully designed and executed to minimize fluid density effects and sources of noise in temperature data. A sensitivity analysis also revealed that heat transport was most sensitive to hydraulic conductivity and porosity, less sensitive to thermal distribution factor, and least sensitive to thermal dispersion and heat conduction. This indicated that the hydraulic conductivity remains the primary calibration parameter for heat transport.« less

Improving regression-model-based streamwater constituent load estimates derived from serially correlated data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aulenbach, Brent T.

2013-01-01

A regression-model based approach is a commonly used, efficient method for estimating streamwater constituent load when there is a relationship between streamwater constituent concentration and continuous variables such as streamwater discharge, season and time. A subsetting experiment using a 30-year dataset of daily suspended sediment observations from the Mississippi River at Thebes, Illinois, was performed to determine optimal sampling frequency, model calibration period length, and regression model methodology, as well as to determine the effect of serial correlation of model residuals on load estimate precision. Two regression-based methods were used to estimate streamwater loads, the Adjusted Maximum Likelihood Estimator (AMLE), and the composite method, a hybrid load estimation approach. While both methods accurately and precisely estimated loads at the model’s calibration period time scale, precisions were progressively worse at shorter reporting periods, from annually to monthly. Serial correlation in model residuals resulted in observed AMLE precision to be significantly worse than the model calculated standard errors of prediction. The composite method effectively improved upon AMLE loads for shorter reporting periods, but required a sampling interval of at least 15-days or shorter, when the serial correlations in the observed load residuals were greater than 0.15. AMLE precision was better at shorter sampling intervals and when using the shortest model calibration periods, such that the regression models better fit the temporal changes in the concentration–discharge relationship. The models with the largest errors typically had poor high flow sampling coverage resulting in unrepresentative models. Increasing sampling frequency and/or targeted high flow sampling are more efficient approaches to ensure sufficient sampling and to avoid poorly performing models, than increasing calibration period length.

Discharge-nitrate data clustering for characterizing surface-subsurface flow interaction and calibration of a hydrologic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, R. R.; Rode, M.

2008-12-01

Concentration of reactive chemicals has different chemical signatures in baseflow and surface runoff. Previous studies on nitrate export from a catchment indicate that the transport processes are driven by subsurface flow. Therefore nitrate signature can be used for understanding the event and pre-event contributions to streamflow and surface-subsurface flow interactions. The study uses flow and nitrate concentration time series data for understanding the relationship between these two variables. Unsupervised artificial neural network based learning method called self organizing map is used for the identification of clusters in the datasets. Based on the cluster results, five different pattern in the datasets are identified which correspond to (i) baseflow, (ii) subsurface flow increase, (iii) surface runoff increase, (iv) surface runoff recession, and (v) subsurface flow decrease regions. The cluster results in combination with a hydrologic model are used for discharge separation. For this purpose, a multi-objective optimization tool NSGA-II is used, where violation of cluster results is used as one of the objective functions. The results show that the use of cluster results as supplementary information for the calibration of a hydrologic model gives a plausible simulation of subsurface flow as well total runoff at the catchment outlet. The study is undertaken using data from the Weida catchment in the North-Eastern Germany, which is a sub-catchment of the Weisse Elster river in the Elbe river basin.

Controls of channel morphology and sediment concentration on flow resistance in a large sand-bed river: A case study of the lower Yellow River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yuanxu; Huang, He Qing

2016-07-01

Accurate estimation of flow resistance is crucial for flood routing, flow discharge and velocity estimation, and engineering design. Various empirical and semiempirical flow resistance models have been developed during the past century; however, a universal flow resistance model for varying types of rivers has remained difficult to be achieved to date. In this study, hydrometric data sets from six stations in the lower Yellow River during 1958-1959 are used to calibrate three empirical flow resistance models (Eqs. (5)-(7)) and evaluate their predictability. A group of statistical measures have been used to evaluate the goodness of fit of these models, including root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (CD), the Nash coefficient (NA), mean relative error (MRE), mean symmetry error (MSE), percentage of data with a relative error ≤ 50% and 25% (P50, P25), and percentage of data with overestimated error (POE). Three model selection criterions are also employed to assess the model predictability: Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and a modified model selection criterion (MSC). The results show that mean flow depth (d) and water surface slope (S) can only explain a small proportion of variance in flow resistance. When channel width (w) and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) are involved, the new model (7) achieves a better performance than the previous ones. The MRE of model (7) is generally < 20%, which is apparently better than that reported by previous studies. This model is validated using the data sets from the corresponding stations during 1965-1966, and the results show larger uncertainties than the calibrating model. This probably resulted from the temporal shift of dominant controls caused by channel change resulting from varying flow regime. With the advancements of earth observation techniques, information about channel width, mean flow depth, and suspended sediment concentration can be effectively extracted from multisource satellite images. We expect that the empirical methods developed in this study can be used as an effective surrogate in estimation of flow resistance in the large sand-bed rivers like the lower Yellow River.

Climate change effects on extreme flows of water supply area in Istanbul: utility of regional climate models and downscaling method.

PubMed

Kara, Fatih; Yucel, Ismail

2015-09-01

This study investigates the climate change impact on the changes of mean and extreme flows under current and future climate conditions in the Omerli Basin of Istanbul, Turkey. The 15 regional climate model output from the EU-ENSEMBLES project and a downscaling method based on local implications from geophysical variables were used for the comparative analyses. Automated calibration algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdel-ning (HBV) model for the study catchment using observed daily temperature and precipitation. The calibrated HBV model was implemented to simulate daily flows using precipitation and temperature data from climate models with and without downscaling method for reference (1960-1990) and scenario (2071-2100) periods. Flood indices were derived from daily flows, and their changes throughout the four seasons and year were evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. All climate models strongly underestimate precipitation while downscaling improves their underestimation feature particularly for extreme events. Depending on precipitation input from climate models with and without downscaling the HBV also significantly underestimates daily mean and extreme flows through all seasons. However, this underestimation feature is importantly improved for all seasons especially for spring and winter through the use of downscaled inputs. Changes in extreme flows from reference to future increased for the winter and spring and decreased for the fall and summer seasons. These changes were more significant with downscaling inputs. With respect to current time, higher flow magnitudes for given return periods will be experienced in the future and hence, in the planning of the Omerli reservoir, the effective storage and water use should be sustained.

Modeling of ground-water flow in subsurface Austin Chalk and Taylor marl in Ellis County, Texas, near the superconducting super collider site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mace, R.E.

1993-02-01

Numerical models are useful tools for developing an understanding of ground-water flow in sparsely characterized low-permeability aquifers. Finite-difference, cross-sectional models of Cretaceous chalk and marl formations near the Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) were constructed using MODFLOW to evaluate ground-water circulation paths and travel times. Weathered and fractured zones with enhanced permeability were included to assess the effect these features had on flow paths and times. Pump tests, slug tests, packer tests, core tests, and estimates were used to define hydraulic properties for model input. The model was calibrated with water-level data from monitor wells and from wire-line piezometers near amore » test shaft excavated by the SSC project. A ratio of vertical-to-horizontal permeability of 0.0085 was estimated through model calibration. A chalk-to-marl permeability ratio of 18 was needed to reproduce artesian head in a well completed in chalk beneath marl. Hydraulic head distributions and ground-water flow paths reflected local, intermediate, and regional flow systems with recharge beneath upland surface-water divides and discharge in valleys. Most of the flow (99%) occurred in the weathered zone, with average residence times of 5 to 10 years. Residence time in unweathered chalk bedrock was substantially longer, at an average of 1.7 Ma. As expected, the model demonstrated that deep and rapid ground-water circulation might occur in fracture zones. Particle paths calculated using MODPATH showed that ground-water travel times from recharge areas to the SSC subsurface facilities might be 20 to 60 years where flow is through fracture zones.« less

Unifying distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators for hydrologic model assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Qinbo; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Chen, Xi; Schulte, Achim

2014-05-01

The goodness-of-fit indicator, i.e. efficiency criterion, is very important for model calibration. However, recently the knowledge about the goodness-of-fit indicators is all empirical and lacks a theoretical support. Based on the likelihood theory, a unified distance-based goodness-of-fit indicator termed BC-GED model is proposed, which uses the Box-Cox (BC) transformation to remove the heteroscedasticity of model errors and the generalized error distribution (GED) with zero-mean to fit the distribution of model errors after BC. The BC-GED model can unify all recent distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators, and reveals the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) that are widely used goodness-of-fit indicators imply statistic assumptions that the model errors follow the Gaussian distribution and the Laplace distribution with zero-mean, respectively. The empirical knowledge about goodness-of-fit indicators can be also easily interpreted by BC-GED model, e.g. the sensitivity to high flow of the goodness-of-fit indicators with large power of model errors results from the low probability of large model error in the assumed distribution of these indicators. In order to assess the effect of the parameters (i.e. the BC transformation parameter λ and the GED kurtosis coefficient β also termed the power of model errors) of BC-GED model on hydrologic model calibration, six cases of BC-GED model were applied in Baocun watershed (East China) with SWAT-WB-VSA model. Comparison of the inferred model parameters and model simulation results among the six indicators demonstrates these indicators can be clearly separated two classes by the GED kurtosis β: β >1 and β ≤ 1. SWAT-WB-VSA calibrated by the class β >1 of distance-based goodness-of-fit indicators captures high flow very well and mimics the baseflow very badly, but it calibrated by the class β ≤ 1 mimics the baseflow very well, because first the larger value of β, the greater emphasis is put on high flow and second the derivative of GED probability density function at zero is zero as β >1, but discontinuous as β ≤ 1, and even infinity as β < 1 with which the maximum likelihood estimation can guarantee the model errors approach zero as well as possible. The BC-GED that estimates the parameters (i.e. λ and β) of BC-GED model as well as hydrologic model parameters is the best distance-based goodness-of-fit indicator because not only the model validation using groundwater levels is very good, but also the model errors fulfill the statistic assumption best. However, in some cases of model calibration with a few observations e.g. calibration of single-event model, for avoiding estimation of the parameters of BC-GED model the MAE i.e. the boundary indicator (β = 1) of the two classes, can replace the BC-GED, because the model validation of MAE is best.

Modeling the system dynamics for nutrient removal in an innovative septic tank media filter.

PubMed

Xuan, Zhemin; Chang, Ni-Bin; Wanielista, Martin

2012-05-01

A next generation septic tank media filter to replace or enhance the current on-site wastewater treatment drainfields was proposed in this study. Unit operation with known treatment efficiencies, flow pattern identification, and system dynamics modeling was cohesively concatenated in order to prove the concept of a newly developed media filter. A multicompartmental model addressing system dynamics and feedbacks based on our assumed microbiological processes accounting for aerobic, anoxic, and anaerobic conditions in the media filter was constructed and calibrated with the aid of in situ measurements and the understanding of the flow patterns. Such a calibrated system dynamics model was then applied for a sensitivity analysis under changing inflow conditions based on the rates of nitrification and denitrification characterized through the field-scale testing. This advancement may contribute to design such a drainfield media filter in household septic tank systems in the future.

Ensemble engineering and statistical modeling for parameter calibration towards optimal design of microbial fuel cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hongyue; Luo, Shuai; Jin, Ran; He, Zhen

2017-07-01

Mathematical modeling is an important tool to investigate the performance of microbial fuel cell (MFC) towards its optimized design. To overcome the shortcoming of traditional MFC models, an ensemble model is developed through integrating both engineering model and statistical analytics for the extrapolation scenarios in this study. Such an ensemble model can reduce laboring effort in parameter calibration and require fewer measurement data to achieve comparable accuracy to traditional statistical model under both the normal and extreme operation regions. Based on different weight between current generation and organic removal efficiency, the ensemble model can give recommended input factor settings to achieve the best current generation and organic removal efficiency. The model predicts a set of optimal design factors for the present tubular MFCs including the anode flow rate of 3.47 mL min-1, organic concentration of 0.71 g L-1, and catholyte pumping flow rate of 14.74 mL min-1 to achieve the peak current at 39.2 mA. To maintain 100% organic removal efficiency, the anode flow rate and organic concentration should be controlled lower than 1.04 mL min-1 and 0.22 g L-1, respectively. The developed ensemble model can be potentially modified to model other types of MFCs or bioelectrochemical systems.

Use of Inverse-Modeling Methods to Improve Ground-Water-Model Calibration and Evaluate Model-Prediction Uncertainty, Camp Edwards, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walter, Donald A.; LeBlanc, Denis R.

2008-01-01

Historical weapons testing and disposal activities at Camp Edwards, which is located on the Massachusetts Military Reservation, western Cape Cod, have resulted in the release of contaminants into an underlying sand and gravel aquifer that is the sole source of potable water to surrounding communities. Ground-water models have been used at the site to simulate advective transport in the aquifer in support of field investigations. Reasonable models developed by different groups and calibrated by trial and error often yield different predictions of advective transport, and the predictions lack quantitative measures of uncertainty. A recently (2004) developed regional model of western Cape Cod, modified to include the sensitivity and parameter-estimation capabilities of MODFLOW-2000, was used in this report to evaluate the utility of inverse (statistical) methods to (1) improve model calibration and (2) assess model-prediction uncertainty. Simulated heads and flows were most sensitive to recharge and to the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the Buzzards Bay and Sandwich Moraines and the Buzzards Bay and northern parts of the Mashpee outwash plains. Conversely, simulated heads and flows were much less sensitive to vertical hydraulic conductivity. Parameter estimation (inverse calibration) improved the match to observed heads and flows; the absolute mean residual for heads improved by 0.32 feet and the absolute mean residual for streamflows improved by about 0.2 cubic feet per second. Advective-transport predictions in Camp Edwards generally were most sensitive to the parameters with the highest precision (lowest coefficients of variation), indicating that the numerical model is adequate for evaluating prediction uncertainties in and around Camp Edwards. The incorporation of an advective-transport observation, representing the leading edge of a contaminant plume that had been difficult to match by using trial-and-error calibration, improved the match between an observed and simulated plume path; however, a modified representation of local geology was needed to simultaneously maintain a reasonable calibration to heads and flows and to the plume path. Advective-transport uncertainties were expressed as about 68-, 95-, and 99-percent confidence intervals on three dimensional simulated particle positions. The confidence intervals can be graphically represented as ellipses around individual particle positions in the X-Y (geographic) plane and in the X-Z or Y-Z (vertical) planes. The merging of individual ellipses allows uncertainties on forward particle tracks to be displayed in map or cross-sectional view as a cone of uncertainty around a simulated particle path; uncertainties on reverse particle-track endpoints - representing simulated recharge locations - can be geographically displayed as areas at the water table around the discrete particle endpoints. This information gives decisionmakers insight into the level of confidence they can have in particle-tracking results and can assist them in the efficient use of available field resources.

Application of FTLOADDS to Simulate Flow, Salinity, and Surface-Water Stage in the Southern Everglades, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, John D.; Swain, Eric D.; Wolfert, Melinda A.; Langevin, Christian D.; James, Dawn E.; Telis, Pamela A.

2007-01-01

The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan requires numerical modeling to achieve a sufficient understanding of coastal freshwater flows, nutrient sources, and the evaluation of management alternatives to restore the ecosystem of southern Florida. Numerical models include a regional water-management model to represent restoration changes to the hydrology of southern Florida and a hydrodynamic model to represent the southern and western offshore waters. The coastal interface between these two systems, however, has complex surface-water/ground-water and freshwater/saltwater interactions and requires a specialized modeling effort. The Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) code was developed to represent connected surface- and ground-water systems with variable-density flow. The first use of FTLOADDS is the Southern Inland and Coastal Systems (SICS) application to the southeastern part of the Everglades/Florida Bay coastal region. The need to (1) expand the domain of the numerical modeling into most of Everglades National Park and the western coastal area, and (2) better represent the effect of water-delivery control structures, led to the application of the FTLOADDS code to the Tides and Inflows in the Mangroves of the Everglades (TIME) domain. This application allows the model to address a broader range of hydrologic issues and incorporate new code modifications. The surface-water hydrology is of primary interest to water managers, and is the main focus of this study. The coupling to ground water, however, was necessary to accurately represent leakage exchange between the surface water and ground water, which transfers substantial volumes of water and salt. Initial calibration and analysis of the TIME application produced simulated results that compare well statistically with field-measured values. A comparison of TIME simulation results to previous SICS results shows improved capabilities, particularly in the representation of coastal flows. This improvement most likely is due to a more stable numerical representation of the coastal creek outlets. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying frictional resistance, leakage, barriers to flow, and topography. Changing frictional resistance values in inland areas was shown to improve water-level representation locally, but to have a negligible effect on area-wide values. These changes have only local effects and are not physically based (as are the unchanged values), and thus have limited validity. Sensitivity tests indicate that the overall accuracy of the simulation is diminished if leakage between surface water and ground water is not simulated. The inclusion of a major road as a complete barrier to surface-water flow influenced the local distribution and timing of flow; however, the changes in total flow and individual creekflows were negligible. The model land-surface altitude was lowered by 0.1 meter to determine the sensitivity to topographic variation. This topographic sensitivity test produced mixed results in matching field data. Overall, the representation of stage did not improve definitively. A final calibration utilized the results of the sensitivity analysis to refine the TIME application. To accomplish this calibration, the friction coefficient was reduced at the northern boundary inflow and increased in the southwestern corner of the model, the evapotranspiration function was varied, additional data were used for the ground-water head boundary along the southeast, and the frictional resistance of the primary coastal creek outlet was increased. The calibration improved the match between measured and simulated total flows to Florida Bay and coastal salinities. Agreement also was improved at most of the water-level sites throughout the model domain.

Impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism: from a lumped to a semi-distributed approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garavaglia, Federico; Le Lay, Matthieu; Gottardi, Fréderic; Garçon, Rémy; Gailhard, Joël; Paquet, Emmanuel; Mathevet, Thibault

2017-08-01

Model intercomparison experiments are widely used to investigate and improve hydrological model performance. However, a study based only on runoff simulation is not sufficient to discriminate between different model structures. Hence, there is a need to improve hydrological models for specific streamflow signatures (e.g., low and high flow) and multi-variable predictions (e.g., soil moisture, snow and groundwater). This study assesses the impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism using three versions of a hydrological model called MORDOR: the historical lumped structure and a revisited formulation available in both lumped and semi-distributed structures. In particular, the main goal of this paper is to investigate the relative impact of model equations and spatial discretization on flow simulation, snowpack representation and evapotranspiration estimation. Comparison of the models is based on an extensive dataset composed of 50 catchments located in French mountainous regions. The evaluation framework is founded on a multi-criterion split-sample strategy. All models were calibrated using an automatic optimization method based on an efficient genetic algorithm. The evaluation framework is enriched by the assessment of snow and evapotranspiration modeling against in situ and satellite data. The results showed that the new model formulations perform significantly better than the initial one in terms of the various streamflow signatures, snow and evapotranspiration predictions. The semi-distributed approach provides better calibration-validation performance for the snow cover area, snow water equivalent and runoff simulation, especially for nival catchments.

Calibration and use of an interactive-accounting model to simulate dissolved solids, streamflow, and water-supply operations in the Arkansas River basin, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, A.W.

1989-01-01

An interactive-accounting model was used to simulate dissolved solids, streamflow, and water supply operations in the Arkansas River basin, Colorado. Model calibration of specific conductance to streamflow relations at three sites enabled computation of dissolved-solids loads throughout the basin. To simulate streamflow only, all water supply operations were incorporated in the regression relations for streamflow. Calibration for 1940-85 resulted in coefficients of determination that ranged from 0.89 to 0.58, and values in excess of 0.80 were determined for 16 of 20 nodes. The model then incorporated 74 water users and 11 reservoirs to simulate the water supply operations for two periods, 1943-74 and 1975-85. For the 1943-74 calibration, coefficients of determination for streamflow ranged from 0.87 to 0.02. Calibration of the water supply operations resulted in coefficients of determination that ranged from 0.87 to negative for simulated irrigation diversions of 37 selected water users. Calibration for 1975-85 was not evaluated statistically, but average values and plots of reservoir contents indicated reasonableness of the simulation. To demonstrate the utility of the model, six specific alternatives were simulated to consider effects of potential enlargement of Pueblo Reservoir. Three general major alternatives were simulated: the 1975-85 calibrated model data, the calibrated model data with an addition of 30 cu ft/sec in Fountain Creek flows, and the calibrated model data plus additional municipal water in storage. These three major alternatives considered the options of reservoir enlargement or no enlargement. A 40,000-acre-foot reservoir enlargement resulted in average increases of 2,500 acre-ft in transmountain diversions, of 800 acre-ft in storage diversions, and of 100 acre-ft in winter-water storage. (USGS)

Verification of a one-dimensional, unsteady-flow model for the Fox River in Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ishii, Audrey L.; Turner, Mary J.

1996-01-01

The previously-calibrated application of the Full EQuations (FEQ) model of one-dimensional, unsteady flow to a 30.7-mile reach of the Fox River in northeastern Illinois was verified with discharge, stage, and dye-transport data collected during a 12-day period in October-November 1990. The period included unsteady flow induced by the operation of a sluice gate dam located at the upstream end of the reach. The model flow field was input to the Branched Lagrangian Transport Model (BLTM) for the simulation of dye transport. The results of the FEQ and BLTM model simulations are compared with the measured data and sensitivity analyses of the model parameters for this application are presented.

Approaches in highly parameterized inversion: TSPROC, a general time-series processor to assist in model calibration and result summarization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Doherty, John; Walker, John F.; Kelson, Victor A.; Hunt, Randall J.; Cera, Timothy B.

2012-01-01

The TSPROC (Time Series PROCessor) computer software uses a simple scripting language to process and analyze time series. It was developed primarily to assist in the calibration of environmental models. The software is designed to perform calculations on time-series data commonly associated with surface-water models, including calculation of flow volumes, transformation by means of basic arithmetic operations, and generation of seasonal and annual statistics and hydrologic indices. TSPROC can also be used to generate some of the key input files required to perform parameter optimization by means of the PEST (Parameter ESTimation) computer software. Through the use of TSPROC, the objective function for use in the model-calibration process can be focused on specific components of a hydrograph.

An improved Burgers cellular automaton model for bicycle flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Shuqi; Jia, Bin; Jiang, Rui; Li, Xingang; Shan, Jingjing

2017-12-01

As an energy-efficient and healthy transport mode, bicycling has recently attracted the attention of governments, transport planners, and researchers. The dynamic characteristics of the bicycle flow must be investigated to improve the facility design and traffic operation of bicycling. We model the bicycle flow by using an improved Burgers cellular automaton model. Through a following move mechanism, the modified model enables bicycles to move smoothly and increase the critical density to a more rational level than the original model. The model is calibrated and validated by using experimental data and field data. The results show that the improved model can effectively simulate the bicycle flow. The performance of the model under different parameters is investigated and discussed. Strengths and limitations of the improved model are suggested for future work.

Urban stormwater inundation simulation based on SWMM and diffusive overland-flow model.

PubMed

Chen, Wenjie; Huang, Guoru; Zhang, Han

2017-12-01

With rapid urbanization, inundation-induced property losses have become more and more severe. Urban inundation modeling is an effective way to reduce these losses. This paper introduces a simplified urban stormwater inundation simulation model based on the United States Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and a geographic information system (GIS)-based diffusive overland-flow model. SWMM is applied for computation of flows in storm sewer systems and flooding flows at junctions, while the GIS-based diffusive overland-flow model simulates surface runoff and inundation. One observed rainfall scenario on Haidian Island, Hainan Province, China was chosen to calibrate the model and the other two were used for validation. Comparisons of the model results with field-surveyed data and InfoWorks ICM (Integrated Catchment Modeling) modeled results indicated the inundation model in this paper can provide inundation extents and reasonable inundation depths even in a large study area.

Criteria for selecting fluorescent dye tracers for soil hydrological applications using Uranine as an example

EPA Science Inventory

Calibrating and verifying 2-D and 3-D vadose zone flow and transport models requires detailed information on water and solute redistribution. Among the different water flow and mass transfer determination methods, staining tracers have the best spatial resolution allowing visuali...

Simulation of ground-water flow in coastal Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida-predevelopment, 1980, and 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payne, Dorothy F.; Rumman, Malek Abu; Clarke, John S.

2005-01-01

A digital model was developed to simulate steady-state ground-water flow in a 42,155-square-mile area of coastal Georgia and adjacent parts of South Carolina and Florida. The model was developed to (1) understand and refine the conceptual model of regional ground-water flow, (2) serve as a framework for the development of digital subregional ground-water flow and solute-transport models, and (3) serve as a tool for future evaluations of hypothetical pumping scenarios used to facilitate water management in the coastal area. Single-density ground-water flow was simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference code MODFLOW-2000 for mean-annual conditions during predevelopment (pre?1900) and the years 1980 and 2000. The model comprises seven layers: the surficial aquifer system, the Brunswick aquifer system, the Upper Floridan aquifer, the Lower Floridan aquifer, and the intervening confining units. A combination of boundary conditions was applied, including a general-head boundary condition on the top active cells of the model and a time-variable fixed-head boundary condition along part of the southern lateral boundary. Simulated heads for 1980 and 2000 conditions indicate a good match to observed values, based on a plus-or-minus 10-foot (ft) calibration target and calibration statistics. The root-mean square of residual water levels for the Upper Floridan aquifer was 13.0 ft for the 1980 calibration and 9.94 ft for the 2000 calibration. Some spatial patterns of residuals were indicated for the 1980 and 2000 simulations, and are likely a result of model-grid cell size and insufficiently detailed hydraulic-property and pumpage data in some areas. Simulated potentiometric surfaces for predevelopment, 1980, and 2000 conditions all show major flow system features that are indicated by estimated peotentiometric maps. During 1980?2000, simulated water levels at the centers of pumping at Savannah and Brunswick rose more than 20 ft and 8 ft, respectively, in response to decreased pumping. Simulated drawdown exceeded 10 ft in the Upper Floridan aquifer across much of the western half of the model area, with drawdown exceeding 20 ft along parts of the western, northern, and southern boundaries where irrigation pumping increased during this period. From predevelopment to 2000 conditions, the simulated water budget showed an increase in inflow from, and decrease in outflow to, the general-head boundaries, and a reversal from net seaward flow to net landward flow across the coastline. Simulated changes in recharge and discharge distribution from predevelopment to 2000 conditions showed an increase in extent and magnitude of net recharge cells in the northern part of the model area, and a decrease in discharge or change to recharge in cells containing major streams and beneath major pumping centers. The model is relatively sensitive to pumping and the controlling head at the fixed-head boundary and less sensitive to the distribution of aquifer properties in general. Model limitations include: (1) its spatial scale and discretization, (2) the extent to which data are available to physically define the flow system, (3) the type of boundary conditions and controlling parameters used, (4) uncertainty in the distribution of pumping, and (5) uncertainty in field-scale hydraulic properties. The model could be improved with more accurate estimates of ground-water pumpage and better characterization of recharge and discharge.

A Study of the Unsteady Flow over Concave Conic Models at Mach 15 and 20

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

Stream." The Phil. Mag., July 1952. 5) D. Beastall, and J. Turner, "The Effect of a Spike Protruding in front of a Bluff Body at Supersonic Speeds." ARC... Pallant , "A Note on the Design and Construction of a Low Pressure Calibrator and a Comparison with Shock Tube and Static Calibration Methods

Minitrack tracking function description, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Englar, T. S.; Mango, S. A.; Roettcher, C. A.; Watters, D. L.

1973-01-01

The minitrack tracking function is described and specific operations are identified. The subjects discussed are: (1) preprocessor listing, (2) minitrack hardware, (3) system calibration, (4) quadratic listing, and (5) quadratic flow diagram. Detailed information is provided on the construction of the tracking system and its operation. The calibration procedures are supported by mathematical models to show the application of the computer programs.

Estimation of k-ε parameters using surrogate models and jet-in-crossflow data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lefantzi, Sophia; Ray, Jaideep; Arunajatesan, Srinivasan

2014-11-01

We demonstrate a Bayesian method that can be used to calibrate computationally expensive 3D RANS (Reynolds Av- eraged Navier Stokes) models with complex response surfaces. Such calibrations, conditioned on experimental data, can yield turbulence model parameters as probability density functions (PDF), concisely capturing the uncertainty in the parameter estimates. Methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimate the PDF by sampling, with each sample requiring a run of the RANS model. Consequently a quick-running surrogate is used instead to the RANS simulator. The surrogate can be very difficult to design if the model's response i.e., the dependence of themore » calibration variable (the observable) on the parameter being estimated is complex. We show how the training data used to construct the surrogate can be employed to isolate a promising and physically realistic part of the parameter space, within which the response is well-behaved and easily modeled. We design a classifier, based on treed linear models, to model the "well-behaved region". This classifier serves as a prior in a Bayesian calibration study aimed at estimating 3 k - ε parameters ( C μ, C ε2 , C ε1 ) from experimental data of a transonic jet-in-crossflow interaction. The robustness of the calibration is investigated by checking its predictions of variables not included in the cal- ibration data. We also check the limit of applicability of the calibration by testing at off-calibration flow regimes. We find that calibration yield turbulence model parameters which predict the flowfield far better than when the nomi- nal values of the parameters are used. Substantial improvements are still obtained when we use the calibrated RANS model to predict jet-in-crossflow at Mach numbers and jet strengths quite different from those used to generate the ex- perimental (calibration) data. Thus the primary reason for poor predictive skill of RANS, when using nominal values of the turbulence model parameters, was parametric uncertainty, which was rectified by calibration. Post-calibration, the dominant contribution to model inaccuraries are due to the structural errors in RANS.« less

Effects of flood control and other reservoir operations on the water quality of the lower Roanoke River, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, Ana Maria

2012-01-01

The Roanoke River is an important natural resource for North Carolina, Virginia, and the Nation. Flood plains of the lower Roanoke River, which extend from Roanoke Rapids Dam to Batchelor Bay near Albemarle Sound, support a large and diverse population of nesting birds, waterfowl, freshwater and anadromous fish, and other wildlife, including threatened and endangered species. The flow regime of the lower Roanoke River is affected by a number of factors, including flood-management operations at the upstream John H. Kerr Dam and Reservoir. A three-dimensional, numerical water-quality model was developed to explore links between upstream flows and downstream water quality, specifically in-stream dissolved-oxygen dynamics. Calibration of the hydrodynamics and dissolved-oxygen concentrations emphasized the effect that flood-plain drainage has on water and oxygen levels, especially at locations more than 40 kilometers away from the Roanoke Rapids Dam. Model hydrodynamics were calibrated at three locations on the lower Roanoke River, yielding coefficients of determination between 0.5 and 0.9. Dissolved-oxygen concentrations were calibrated at the same sites, and coefficients of determination ranged between 0.6 and 0.8. The model has been used to quantify relations among river flow, flood-plain water level, and in-stream dissolved-oxygen concentrations in support of management of operations of the John H. Kerr Dam, which affects overall flows in the lower Roanoke River. Scenarios have been developed to mitigate the negative effects that timing, duration, and extent of flood-plain inundation may have on vegetation, wildlife, and fisheries in the lower Roanoke River corridor. Under specific scenarios, the model predicted that mean dissolved-oxygen concentrations could be increased by 15 percent by flow-release schedules that minimize the drainage of anoxic flood-plain waters. The model provides a tool for water-quality managers that can help identify options that improve water quality and protect the aquatic habitat of the Roanoke River.

Extrapolating regional probability of drying of headwater streams using discrete observations and gauging networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaufort, Aurélien; Lamouroux, Nicolas; Pella, Hervé; Datry, Thibault; Sauquet, Eric

2018-05-01

Headwater streams represent a substantial proportion of river systems and many of them have intermittent flows due to their upstream position in the network. These intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams have recently seen a marked increase in interest, especially to assess the impact of drying on aquatic ecosystems. The objective of this paper is to quantify how discrete (in space and time) field observations of flow intermittence help to extrapolate over time the daily probability of drying (defined at the regional scale). Two empirical models based on linear or logistic regressions have been developed to predict the daily probability of intermittence at the regional scale across France. Explanatory variables were derived from available daily discharge and groundwater-level data of a dense gauging/piezometer network, and models were calibrated using discrete series of field observations of flow intermittence. The robustness of the models was tested using an independent, dense regional dataset of intermittence observations and observations of the year 2017 excluded from the calibration. The resulting models were used to extrapolate the daily regional probability of drying in France: (i) over the period 2011-2017 to identify the regions most affected by flow intermittence; (ii) over the period 1989-2017, using a reduced input dataset, to analyse temporal variability of flow intermittence at the national level. The two empirical regression models performed equally well between 2011 and 2017. The accuracy of predictions depended on the number of continuous gauging/piezometer stations and intermittence observations available to calibrate the regressions. Regions with the highest performance were located in sedimentary plains, where the monitoring network was dense and where the regional probability of drying was the highest. Conversely, the worst performances were obtained in mountainous regions. Finally, temporal projections (1989-2016) suggested the highest probabilities of intermittence (> 35 %) in 1989-1991, 2003 and 2005. A high density of intermittence observations improved the information provided by gauging stations and piezometers to extrapolate the temporal variability of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams.

A novel Bayesian approach to accounting for uncertainty in fMRI-derived estimates of cerebral oxygen metabolism fluctuations

PubMed Central

Simon, Aaron B.; Dubowitz, David J.; Blockley, Nicholas P.; Buxton, Richard B.

2016-01-01

Calibrated blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) imaging is a multimodal functional MRI technique designed to estimate changes in cerebral oxygen metabolism from measured changes in cerebral blood flow and the BOLD signal. This technique addresses fundamental ambiguities associated with quantitative BOLD signal analysis; however, its dependence on biophysical modeling creates uncertainty in the resulting oxygen metabolism estimates. In this work, we developed a Bayesian approach to estimating the oxygen metabolism response to a neural stimulus and used it to examine the uncertainty that arises in calibrated BOLD estimation due to the presence of unmeasured model parameters. We applied our approach to estimate the CMRO2 response to a visual task using the traditional hypercapnia calibration experiment as well as to estimate the metabolic response to both a visual task and hypercapnia using the measurement of baseline apparent R2′ as a calibration technique. Further, in order to examine the effects of cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) signal contamination on the measurement of apparent R2′, we examined the effects of measuring this parameter with and without CSF-nulling. We found that the two calibration techniques provided consistent estimates of the metabolic response on average, with a median R2′-based estimate of the metabolic response to CO2 of 1.4%, and R2′- and hypercapnia-calibrated estimates of the visual response of 27% and 24%, respectively. However, these estimates were sensitive to different sources of estimation uncertainty. The R2′-calibrated estimate was highly sensitive to CSF contamination and to uncertainty in unmeasured model parameters describing flow-volume coupling, capillary bed characteristics, and the iso-susceptibility saturation of blood. The hypercapnia-calibrated estimate was relatively insensitive to these parameters but highly sensitive to the assumed metabolic response to CO2. PMID:26790354

A novel Bayesian approach to accounting for uncertainty in fMRI-derived estimates of cerebral oxygen metabolism fluctuations.

PubMed

Simon, Aaron B; Dubowitz, David J; Blockley, Nicholas P; Buxton, Richard B

2016-04-01

Calibrated blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) imaging is a multimodal functional MRI technique designed to estimate changes in cerebral oxygen metabolism from measured changes in cerebral blood flow and the BOLD signal. This technique addresses fundamental ambiguities associated with quantitative BOLD signal analysis; however, its dependence on biophysical modeling creates uncertainty in the resulting oxygen metabolism estimates. In this work, we developed a Bayesian approach to estimating the oxygen metabolism response to a neural stimulus and used it to examine the uncertainty that arises in calibrated BOLD estimation due to the presence of unmeasured model parameters. We applied our approach to estimate the CMRO2 response to a visual task using the traditional hypercapnia calibration experiment as well as to estimate the metabolic response to both a visual task and hypercapnia using the measurement of baseline apparent R2' as a calibration technique. Further, in order to examine the effects of cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) signal contamination on the measurement of apparent R2', we examined the effects of measuring this parameter with and without CSF-nulling. We found that the two calibration techniques provided consistent estimates of the metabolic response on average, with a median R2'-based estimate of the metabolic response to CO2 of 1.4%, and R2'- and hypercapnia-calibrated estimates of the visual response of 27% and 24%, respectively. However, these estimates were sensitive to different sources of estimation uncertainty. The R2'-calibrated estimate was highly sensitive to CSF contamination and to uncertainty in unmeasured model parameters describing flow-volume coupling, capillary bed characteristics, and the iso-susceptibility saturation of blood. The hypercapnia-calibrated estimate was relatively insensitive to these parameters but highly sensitive to the assumed metabolic response to CO2. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling and characterization of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) nonscanner and scanner sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halyo, Nesim; Pandey, Dhirendra K.; Taylor, Deborah B.

1989-01-01

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is making high-absolute-accuracy measurements of the reflected solar and Earth-emitted radiation as well as the incoming solar radiation from three satellites: ERBS, NOAA-9, and NOAA-10. Each satellite has four Earth-looking nonscanning radiometers and three scanning radiometers. A fifth nonscanner, the solar monitor, measures the incoming solar radiation. The development of the ERBE sensor characterization procedures are described using the calibration data for each of the Earth-looking nonscanners and scanners. Sensor models for the ERBE radiometers are developed including the radiative exchange, conductive heat flow, and electronics processing for transient and steady state conditions. The steady state models are used to interpret the sensor outputs, resulting in the data reduction algorithms for the ERBE instruments. Both ground calibration and flight calibration procedures are treated and analyzed. The ground and flight calibration coefficients for the data reduction algorithms are presented.

Field study and simulation of diurnal temperature effects on infiltration and variably saturated flow beneath an ephemeral stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudek Ronan, Anne; Prudic, David E.; Thodal, Carl E.; Constantz, Jim

1998-01-01

Two experiments were performed to investigate flow beneath an ephemeral stream and to estimate streambed infiltration rates. Discharge and stream-area measurements were used to determine infiltration rates. Stream and subsurface temperatures were used to interpret subsurface flow through variably saturated sediments beneath the stream. Spatial variations in subsurface temperatures suggest that flow beneath the streambed is dependent on the orientation of the stream in the canyon and the layering of the sediments. Streamflow and infiltration rates vary diurnally: Streamflow is lowest in late afternoon when stream temperature is greatest and highest in early morning when stream temperature is least. The lower afternoon Streamflow is attributed to increased infiltration rates; evapotranspiration is insufficient to account for the decreased Streamflow. The increased infiltration rates are attributed to viscosity effects on hydraulic conductivity from increased stream temperatures. The first set of field data was used to calibrate a two-dimensional variably saturated flow model that includes heat transport. The model was calibrated to (1) temperature fluctuations in the subsurface and (2) infiltration rates determined from measured Streamflow losses. The second set of field data was to evaluate the ability to predict infiltration rates on the basis of temperature measurements alone. Results indicate that the variably saturated subsurface flow depends on downcanyon layering of the sediments. They also support the field observations in indicating that diurnal changes in infiltration can be explained by temperature dependence of hydraulic conductivity. Over the range of temperatures and flows monitored, diurnal stream temperature changes can be used to estimate streambed infiltration rates. It is often impractical to maintain equipment for determining infiltration rates by traditional means; however, once a model is calibrated using both infiltration and temperature data, only relatively inexpensive temperature monitoring can later yield infiltration rates that are within the correct order of magnitude.

Using combined hydrological variables for extracting functional signatures of catchments to better assess the acceptability of model structures in conceptual catchment modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fovet, O.; Hrachowitz, M.; RUIZ, L.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Savenije, H.

2013-12-01

While most hydrological models reproduce the general flow dynamics of a system, they frequently fail to adequately mimic system internal processes. This is likely to make them inadequate to simulate solutes transport. For example, the hysteresis between storage and discharge, which is often observed in shallow hard-rock aquifers, is rarely well reproduced by models. One main reason is that this hysteresis has little weight in the calibration because objective functions are based on time series of individual variables. This reduces the ability of classical calibration/validation procedures to assess the relevance of the conceptual hypothesis associated with hydrological models. Calibrating models on variables derived from the combination of different individual variables (like stream discharge and groundwater levels) is a way to insure that models will be accepted based on their consistency. Here we therefore test the value of this more systems-like approach to test different hypothesis on the behaviour of a small experimental low-land catchment in French Brittany (ORE AgrHys) where a high hysteresis is observed on the stream flow vs. shallow groundwater level relationship. Several conceptual models were applied to this site, and calibrated using objective functions based on metrics of this hysteresis. The tested model structures differed with respect to the storage function in each reservoir, the storage-discharge function in each reservoir, the deep loss expressions (as constant or variable fraction), the number of reservoirs (from 1 to 4) and their organization (parallel, series). The observed hysteretic groundwater level-discharge relationship was not satisfactorily reproduced by most of the tested models except for the most complex ones. Those were thus more consistent, their underlying hypotheses are probably more realistic even though their performance for simulating observed stream flow was decreased. Selecting models based on such systems-like approach is likely to improve their efficiency for environmental application e.g. on solute transport issues. The next step would be to apply the same approach with variables combining hydrological and biogeochemical variables.

A three-dimensional numerical model of predevelopment conditions in the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Agnese, Frank A.; O'Brien, G. M.; Faunt, C.C.; Belcher, W.R.; San Juan, C.

2002-01-01

In the early 1990's, two numerical models of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system were developed by the U.S. Department of Energy. In general, the two models were based on the same basic hydrogeologic data set. In 1998, the U.S. Department of Energy requested that the U.S. Geological Survey develop and maintain a ground-water flow model of the Death Valley region in support of U.S. Department of Energy programs at the Nevada Test Site. The purpose of developing this 'second-generation' regional model was to enhance the knowledge an understanding of the ground-water flow system as new information and tools are developed. The U.S. Geological Survey also was encouraged by the U.S. Department of Energy to cooperate to the fullest extent with other Federal, State, and local entities in the region to take advantage of the benefits of their knowledge and expertise. The short-term objective of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system project was to develop a steady-state representation of the predevelopment conditions of the ground-water flow system utilizing the two geologic interpretations used to develop the previous numerical models. The long-term objective of this project was to construct and calibrate a transient model that simulates the ground-water conditions of the study area over the historical record that utilizes a newly interpreted hydrogeologic conceptual model. This report describes the result of the predevelopment steady-state model construction and calibration. The Death Valley regional ground-water flow system is situated within the southern Great Basin, a subprovince of the Basin and Range physiographic province, bounded by latitudes 35 degrees north and 38 degrees 15 minutes north and by longitudes 115 and 118 degrees west. Hydrology in the region is a result of both the arid climatic conditions and the complex geology. Ground-water flow generally can be described as dominated by interbasinal flow and may be conceptualized as having two main components: a series of relatively shallow and localized flow paths that are superimposed on deeper regional flow paths. A significant component of the regional ground-water flow is through a thick Paleozoic carbonate rock sequence. Throughout the flow system, ground water flows through zones of high transmissivity that have resulted from regional faulting and fracturing. The conceptual model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system used for this study is adapted from the two previous ground-water modeling studies. The three-dimensional digital hydrogeologic framework model developed for the region also contains elements of both of the hydrogeologic framework models used in the previous investigations. As dictated by project scope, very little reinterpretation and refinement were made where these two framework models disagree; therefore, limitations in the hydrogeologic representation of the flow system exist. Despite limitations, the framework model provides the best representation to date of the hydrogeologic units and structures that control regional ground-water flow and serves as an important information source used to construct and calibrate the predevelopment, steady-state flow model. In addition to the hydrogeologic framework, a complex array of mechanisms accounts for flow into, through, and out of the regional ground-water flow system. Natural discharges from the regional ground-water flow system occur by evapotranspiration, springs, and subsurface outflow. In this study, evapotranspiration rates were adapted from a related investigation that developed maps of evapotranspiration areas and computed rates from micrometeorological data collected within the local area over a multiyear period. In some cases, historical spring flow records were used to derive ground-water discharge rates for isolated regional springs. For this investigation, a process-based, numerical model was developed to estimat

When to Make Mountains out of Molehills: The Pros and Cons of Simple and Complex Model Calibration Procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. A.; Barker, L. J.; Harrigan, S.; Prudhomme, C.; Hannaford, J.; Tanguy, M.; Parry, S.

2017-12-01

Earth and environmental models are relied upon to investigate system responses that cannot otherwise be examined. In simulating physical processes, models have adjustable parameters which may, or may not, have a physical meaning. Determining the values to assign to these model parameters is an enduring challenge for earth and environmental modellers. Selecting different error metrics by which the models results are compared to observations will lead to different sets of calibrated model parameters, and thus different model results. Furthermore, models may exhibit `equifinal' behaviour, where multiple combinations of model parameters lead to equally acceptable model performance against observations. These decisions in model calibration introduce uncertainty that must be considered when model results are used to inform environmental decision-making. This presentation focusses on the uncertainties that derive from the calibration of a four parameter lumped catchment hydrological model (GR4J). The GR models contain an inbuilt automatic calibration algorithm that can satisfactorily calibrate against four error metrics in only a few seconds. However, a single, deterministic model result does not provide information on parameter uncertainty. Furthermore, a modeller interested in extreme events, such as droughts, may wish to calibrate against more low flows specific error metrics. In a comprehensive assessment, the GR4J model has been run with 500,000 Latin Hypercube Sampled parameter sets across 303 catchments in the United Kingdom. These parameter sets have been assessed against six error metrics, including two drought specific metrics. This presentation compares the two approaches, and demonstrates that the inbuilt automatic calibration can outperform the Latin Hypercube experiment approach in single metric assessed performance. However, it is also shown that there are many merits of the more comprehensive assessment, which allows for probabilistic model results, multi-objective optimisation, and better tailoring to calibrate the model for specific applications such as drought event characterisation. Modellers and decision-makers may be constrained in their choice of calibration method, so it is important that they recognise the strengths and limitations of their chosen approach.

Spatial and Temporal Self-Calibration of a Hydroeconomic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howitt, R. E.; Hansen, K. M.

2008-12-01

Hydroeconomic modeling of water systems where risk and reliability of water supply are of critical importance must address explicitly how to model water supply uncertainty. When large fluctuations in annual precipitation and significant variation in flows by location are present, a model which solves with perfect foresight of future water conditions may be inappropriate for some policy and research questions. We construct a simulation-optimization model with limited foresight of future water conditions using positive mathematical programming and self-calibration techniques. This limited foresight netflow (LFN) model signals the value of storing water for future use and reflects a more accurate economic value of water at key locations, given that future water conditions are unknown. Failure to explicitly model this uncertainty could lead to undervaluation of storage infrastructure and contractual mechanisms for managing water supply risk. A model based on sequentially updated information is more realistic, since water managers make annual storage decisions without knowledge of yet to be realized future water conditions. The LFN model runs historical hydrological conditions through the current configuration of the California water system to determine the economically efficient allocation of water under current economic conditions and infrastructure. The model utilizes current urban and agricultural demands, storage and conveyance infrastructure, and the state's hydrological history to indicate the scarcity value of water at key locations within the state. Further, the temporal calibration penalty functions vary by year type, reflecting agricultural water users' ability to alter cropping patterns in response to water conditions. The model employs techniques from positive mathematical programming (Howitt, 1995; Howitt, 1998; Cai and Wang, 2006) to generate penalty functions that are applied to deviations from observed data. The functions are applied to monthly flows across key nodes on the network and to annual carryover storage at ground and surface water storage facilities. To our knowledge, this is the first hydroeconomic model to perform spatial and temporal calibration simultaneously. The base for the LFN model is CALVIN, a hydroeconomic optimization model of the California water system developed at the University of California, Davis (Draper, et al. 2003). The LFN model, programmed in GAMS, is nonlinear, which permits incorporation of dynamic groundwater pumping costs that reflect head elevation. Hydropower production, also nonlinear in storage levels, could be added in the future. In this paper, we describe model implementation and performance over a sequence of water years drawn from the historical hydrologic record in California. Preliminary findings indicate that calibration occurs within acceptable limits and simulations replicate base case results well. Cai, X., and Wang, D. 2006. "Calibrating Holistic Water Resources-Economic Models." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management November-December. Draper, A.J., M.W. Jenkins, K.W. Kirby, J.R. Lund, and R.E. Howitt. 2003. "Economic-Engineering Optimization for California Water Management." Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 129(3):155-164. Howitt, R.E. 1995. "Positive Mathematical Programming." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 77:329-342. Howitt, R.E. 1998. "Self-Calibrating Network Flow Models." Working Paper, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis. October 1998. class="ab'>

Flow through electrode with automated calibration

DOEpatents

Szecsody, James E [Richland, WA; Williams, Mark D [Richland, WA; Vermeul, Vince R [Richland, WA

2002-08-20

The present invention is an improved automated flow through electrode liquid monitoring system. The automated system has a sample inlet to a sample pump, a sample outlet from the sample pump to at least one flow through electrode with a waste port. At least one computer controls the sample pump and records data from the at least one flow through electrode for a liquid sample. The improvement relies upon (a) at least one source of a calibration sample connected to (b) an injection valve connected to said sample outlet and connected to said source, said injection valve further connected to said at least one flow through electrode, wherein said injection valve is controlled by said computer to select between said liquid sample or said calibration sample. Advantages include improved accuracy because of more frequent calibrations, no additional labor for calibration, no need to remove the flow through electrode(s), and minimal interruption of sampling.

Numerical simulations of flow fields through conventionally controlled wind turbines & wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emre Yilmaz, Ali; Meyers, Johan

2014-06-01

In the current study, an Actuator-Line Model (ALM) is implemented in our in-house pseudo-spectral LES solver SP-WIND, including a turbine controller. Below rated wind speed, turbines are controlled by a standard-torque-controller aiming at maximum power extraction from the wind. Above rated wind speed, the extracted power is limited by a blade pitch controller which is based on a proportional-integral type control algorithm. This model is used to perform a series of single turbine and wind farm simulations using the NREL 5MW turbine. First of all, we focus on below-rated wind speed, and investigate the effect of the farm layout on the controller calibration curves. These calibration curves are expressed in terms of nondimensional torque and rotational speed, using the mean turbine-disk velocity as reference. We show that this normalization leads to calibration curves that are independent of wind speed, but the calibration curves do depend on the farm layout, in particular for tightly spaced farms. Compared to turbines in a lone-standing set-up, turbines in a farm experience a different wind distribution over the rotor due to the farm boundary-layer interaction. We demonstrate this for fully developed wind-farm boundary layers with aligned turbine arrangements at different spacings (5D, 7D, 9D). Further we also compare calibration curves obtained from full farm simulations with calibration curves that can be obtained at a much lower cost using a minimal flow unit.

Improving Water Balance Estimation in the Nile by Combining Remote Sensing and Hydrological Modelling: a Template for Ungauged Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleason, C. J.; Wada, Y.; Wang, J.

2017-12-01

Declining gauging infrastructure and fractious water politics have decreased available information about river flows globally, especially in international river basins. Remote sensing and water balance modelling are frequently cited as a potential solutions, but these techniques largely rely on the same in decline gauge data to constrain or parameterize discharge estimates, thus creating a circular approach to estimating discharge inapplicable to ungauged basins. To address this, we here combine a discontinued gauge, remotely sensed discharge estimates made via at-many-stations hydraulic geometry (AMHG) and Landsat data, and the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model to estimate discharge for an ungauged time period for the Lower Nile (1978-present). Specifically, we first estimate initial discharges from 86 Landsat images and AMHG (1984-2015), and then use these flow estimates to tune the hydrologic model. Our tuning methodology is purposefully simple and can be easily applied to any model without the need for calibration/parameterization. The resulting tuned modelled hydrograph shows large improvement in flow magnitude over previous modelled hydrographs, and validation of tuned monthly model output flows against the historical gauge yields an RMSE of 343 m3/s (33.7%). By contrast, the original simulation had an order-of-magnitude flow error. This improvement is substantial but not perfect: modelled flows have a one-to two-month wet season lag and a negative bias. More sophisticated model calibration and training (e.g. data assimilation) is needed to improve upon our results, however, our results achieved by coupling physical models and remote sensing is a promising first step and proof of concept toward future modelling of ungauged flows. This is especially true as massive cloud computing via Google Earth Engine makes our method easily applicable to any basin without current gauges. Finally, we purposefully do not offer prescriptive solutions for Nile management, and rather hope that the methods demonstrated herein can prove useful to river stakeholders in managing their own water.

Firefighting and Emergency Response Study of Advanced Composites Aircraft; Objective 1: Composite Material Damage in Minor Aircraft Fires

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-18

26 4.3. 1-D Heat Transfer Model with Pyrolysis and Thermal Damage...Improvements and Added Features ........................................................................31 4.3.4. Pyrolysis Model Calibration... Pyrolysis Model ................................................32 Figure 25. Updated Heat Transfer Algorithm Flow Chart

Eddy interaction model for turbulent suspension in Reynolds-averaged Euler-Lagrange simulations of steady sheet flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Zhen; Chauchat, Julien; Hsu, Tian-Jian; Calantoni, Joseph

2018-01-01

A Reynolds-averaged Euler-Lagrange sediment transport model (CFDEM-EIM) was developed for steady sheet flow, where the inter-granular interactions were resolved and the flow turbulence was modeled with a low Reynolds number corrected k - ω turbulence closure modified for two-phase flows. To model the effect of turbulence on the sediment suspension, the interaction between the turbulent eddies and particles was simulated with an eddy interaction model (EIM). The EIM was first calibrated with measurements from dilute suspension experiments. We demonstrated that the eddy-interaction model was able to reproduce the well-known Rouse profile for suspended sediment concentration. The model results were found to be sensitive to the choice of the coefficient, C0, associated with the turbulence-sediment interaction time. A value C0 = 3 was suggested to match the measured concentration in the dilute suspension. The calibrated CFDEM-EIM was used to model a steady sheet flow experiment of lightweight coarse particles and yielded reasonable agreements with measured velocity, concentration and turbulence kinetic energy profiles. Further numerical experiments for sheet flow suggested that when C0 was decreased to C0 < 3, the simulation under-predicted the amount of suspended sediment in the dilute region and the Schmidt number is over-predicted (Sc > 1.0). Additional simulations for a range of Shields parameters between 0.3 and 1.2 confirmed that CFDEM-EIM was capable of predicting sediment transport rates similar to empirical formulations. Based on the analysis of sediment transport rate and transport layer thickness, the EIM and the resulting suspended load were shown to be important when the fall parameter is less than 1.25.

Evaluation of groundwater pollution in a mining area using analytical solution: a case study of the Yimin open-pit mine in China.

PubMed

Li, Tianxin; Li, Li; Song, Hongqing; Meng, Linglong; Zhang, Shuli; Huang, Gang

2016-01-01

This study focused on using analytical and numerical models to develop and manage groundwater resources, and predict the effects of management measurements in the groundwater system. Movement of contaminants can be studied based on groundwater flow characteristics. This study can be used for prediction of ion concentration and evaluation of groundwater pollution as the theoretical basis. The Yimin open-pit mine is located in the northern part of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China. High concentrations of iron and manganese are observed in Yimin open-pit mine because of exploitation and pumping that have increased the concentration of the ions in groundwater. In this study, iron was considered as an index of contamination, and the solute model was calibrated using concentration observations from 14 wells in 2014. The groundwater flow model and analytical solutions were used in this study to forecast pollution concentration and variation trend after calibration. With continuous pumping, contaminants will migrate, and become enriched, towards the wellhead in the flow direction. The concentration of the contaminants and the range of pollution increase with the flow rate increased. The suitable flow rate of single well should be <380 m/day at Yimin open-pit for the standard value of pollution concentration.

Using Self Potential and Multiphase Flow Modeling to Optimize Groundwater Pumping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasperikova, E.; Zhang, Y.; Hubbard, S.

2008-12-01

Numerical and field hydrological and geophysical studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of groundwater pumping on near-river hydrology for a segment of the Russian River at the Wohler Site, California, which is a riverbed filtration system managed by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Groundwater pumping near streams can cause a creation of unsaturated regions and hence reduce the pumping capacity and change the flow paths. A three-dimensional multiphase flow and transport model can be calibrated to the temperature, and water levels at monitoring wells based on known pumping rates, and the river stage. Streaming (self) potential (SP) is one of the electrokinetic processes that describes the coupled behavior of hydraulic and electrical flow within a porous medium, and is easily measured on the surface or in boreholes. Observing temporal and spatial variations in geophysical signatures provides a powerful approach for monitoring changes in the natural systems due to natural or forced (pumping) system perturbations. Geophysical and hydrological data were collected before, during and after a pumping experiment at the Wohler Site. Using this monitoring dataset, we illustrate how loose coupling between hydrogeological and geophysical (SP) processes and data can be used to calibrate the flow model and to optimize pumping schedules as needed to guide sustainable water resource development.

Numerical simulation of groundwater flow in Dar es Salaam Coastal Plain (Tanzania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luciani, Giulia; Sappa, Giuseppe; Cella, Antonella

2016-04-01

They are presented the results of a groundwater modeling study on the Coastal Aquifer of Dar es Salaam (Tanzania). Dar es Salaam is one of the fastest-growing coastal cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, with with more than 4 million of inhabitants and a population growth rate of about 8 per cent per year. The city faces periodic water shortages, due to the lack of an adequate water supply network. These two factors have determined, in the last ten years, an increasing demand of groundwater exploitation, carried on by quite a number of private wells, which have been drilled to satisfy human demand. A steady-state three dimensional groundwater model has been set up by the MODFLOW code, and calibrated with the UCODE code for inverse modeling. The aim of the model was to carry out a characterization of groundwater flow system in the Dar es Salaam Coastal Plain. The inputs applied to the model included net recharge rate, calculated from time series of precipitation data (1961-2012), estimations of average groundwater extraction, and estimations of groundwater recharge, coming from zones, outside the area under study. Parametrization of the hydraulic conductivities was realized referring to the main geological features of the study area, based on available literature data and information. Boundary conditions were assigned based on hydrogeological boundaries. The conceptual model was defined in subsequent steps, which added some hydrogeological features and excluded other ones. Calibration was performed with UCODE 2014, using 76 measures of hydraulic head, taken in 2012 referred to the same season. Data were weighted on the basis of the expected errors. Sensitivity analysis of data was performed during calibration, and permitted to identify which parameters were possible to be estimated, and which data could support parameters estimation. Calibration was evaluated based on statistical index, maps of error distribution and test of independence of residuals. Further model analysis was performed after calibration, to test model performance under a range of variations of input variables.

Effects of surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows on the hydrology of the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin in Citrus County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Fulkerson, Mark; Basso, Ron; Ryan, Patrick J.

2018-05-21

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Southwest Florida Water Management District, initiated a study to quantify the inflows and outflows in the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools of the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin in Citrus County, Florida. This study assesses hydrologic changes in pool stages, groundwater levels, spring flows, and streamflows caused by the diversion of streamflow from the Withlacoochee River to the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin through water-control structures. A surface-water/groundwater flow model was developed using hydraulic parameters for lakes, streams, the unsaturated zone, and the underlying surficial and Upper Floridan aquifers estimated using an inverse modeling calibration technique. After calibration, the model was used to assess the relation between inflows and outflows in the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin and changes in pool stages.Simulation results using the calibrated surface-water/groundwater flow model showed that leakage rates from the pools to the Upper Floridan aquifer were largest at the deep lake cells and that these leakage rates to the Upper Floridan aquifer were the highest in the model area. Downward leakage to the Upper Floridan aquifer occurred beneath most of the extent of the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools. These leakage rates depended on the lakebed leakance and the difference between lake stages and heads in the Upper Floridan aquifer. Leakage rates were higher for the Floral City pool than for the Inverness pool, and higher for the Inverness pool than for the Hernando pool. Lakebed leakance was higher for the Floral City pool than for the Hernando pool, and higher for the Hernando pool than for the Inverness pool.Simulation results showed that the average recharge rate to the surficial aquifer was 10.3 inches per year for the 2004 to 2012 simulation period. Areas that recharge the surficial aquifer covered about 86 percent of the model area. Simulations identified areas along segments of the Withlacoochee River and within land-surface depressions that receive water from the surficial aquifer. Recharge rates were largest in physiographic regions having a deep water table. Simulated heads in the Upper Floridan aquifer indicated the general flow directions in the active flow model area were from the northeast toward the southwest and then westward toward the coast, and from the southeast toward the northwest and then westward toward the coast, consistent with flow directions inferred from the estimated potentiometric surface map for May 2010. The largest inflow in the water budget of the Upper Floridan aquifer was downward leakage from the overlying hydrogeologic unit. The largest outflow in the water budget of the Upper Floridan aquifer was spring flow.The calibrated surface-water and groundwater flow model was used to simulate hydrologic scenarios that included changes in rainfall rates, projected increases in groundwater pumping rates for 2025 and 2035, no flow for the 2004–12 period through the eight water-control structures in the Tsala Apopka Lake Basin, and the removal of the Inglis Dam and the Inglis Bypass Spillway on Lake Rousseau. Scenario simulation results were compared to annual average calibrated water levels and flows from 2004 to 2012. Simulated declines in the Tsala Apopka Lake pool stages under the 10-percent lower rainfall scenario were about 0.8, 0.3, and 1.3 feet (ft) for the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools, respectively. Simulated groundwater levels under the same scenario declined up to 5.4 ft in the surficial aquifer and up to 2.9 ft in the Upper Floridan aquifer. Under the projected increases in groundwater pumping rates for 2035 that represented an increase of 36 percent from average 2004 to 2012 pumping rates, the simulated declines in the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pool stages were, in downstream order, 0.02, 0.06, and 0.04 ft. The largest drawdown under the projected increases in groundwater pumping rates for 2035 was 2.1 ft in the surficial aquifer and about 1.8 ft in the Upper Floridan aquifer. A scenario of decreased rainfall by 10 percent caused greater declines in water levels and pool stages than projected increases in groundwater pumping rates. The simulation with no flow through the eight Tsala Apopka Lake water-control structures resulted in simulated declines in average pool stage of 1.8, 1.9, and 0.5 ft in the Floral City, Inverness, and Hernando pools, respectively. The simulated removal of the two water-control structures in Lake Rousseau caused flow to increase at Rainbow Springs by 28 cubic feet per second, an increase of 4.7 percent from the average calibrated flow for 2004 to 2012.

A theoretical and experimental study of turbulent particle-laden jets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shuen, J. S.; Solomon, A. S. P.; Zhang, Q. F.; Faeth, G. M.

1983-01-01

Mean and fluctuating velocities of both phases, particle mass fluxes, particle size distributions in turbulent particle-laden jets were measured. The following models are considered: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) model, where slip between the phases was neglected; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, where slip was considered but effects of particle dispersion by turbulence were ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model. The SSF model performed reasonably well with no modifications in the prescriptions for eddy properties from its original calibration. A modified k- model, incorporating direct contributions of interphase transport on turbulence properties (turbulence modulation), was developed within the framework of the SSF model.

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Tiedeman, Claire; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Davis, Jeffrey B.; Burger, Patrick

2012-01-01

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The East-Central Florida Transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into ET, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average ET over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.47 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.58 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.39 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 920 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Groundwater flow and water budget in the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Tiedeman, Claire; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Davis, Jeffery B.; Burger, Patrick

2012-01-01

A numerical transient model of the surficial and Floridan aquifer systems in east-central Florida was developed to (1) increase the understanding of water exchanges between the surficial and the Floridan aquifer systems, (2) assess the recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system from infiltration through the unsaturated zone and (3) obtain a simulation tool that could be used by water-resource managers to assess the impact of changes in groundwater withdrawals on spring flows and on the potentiometric surfaces of the hydrogeologic units composing the Floridan aquifer system. The hydrogeology of east-central Florida was evaluated and used to develop and calibrate the groundwater flow model, which simulates the regional fresh groundwater flow system. The U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional groundwater flow model, MODFLOW-2005, was used to simulate transient groundwater flow in the surficial, intermediate, and Floridan aquifer systems from 1995 to 2006. The east-central Florida transient model encompasses an actively simulated area of about 9,000 square miles. Although the model includes surficial processes-rainfall, irrigation, evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration, lake water levels, and stream water levels and flows-its primary purpose is to characterize and refine the understanding of groundwater flow in the Floridan aquifer system. Model-independent estimates of the partitioning of rainfall into evapotranspiration, streamflow, and aquifer recharge are provided from a water-budget analysis of the surficial aquifer system. The interaction of the groundwater flow system with the surface environment was simulated using the Green-Ampt infiltration method and the MODFLOW-2005 Unsaturated-Zone Flow, Lake, and Streamflow-Routing Packages. The model is intended to simulate the part of the groundwater system that contains freshwater. The bottom and lateral boundaries of the model were established at the estimated depths where the chloride concentration is 5,000 milligrams per liter in the Floridan aquifer system. Potential flow across the interface represented by this chloride concentration is simulated by the General Head Boundary Package. During 1995 through 2006, there were no major groundwater withdrawals near the freshwater and saline-water interface, making the general head boundary a suitable feature to estimate flow through the interface. The east-central Florida transient model was calibrated using the inverse parameter estimation code, PEST. Steady-state models for 1999 and 2003 were developed to estimate hydraulic conductivity (K) using average annual heads and spring flows as observations. The spatial variation of K was represented using zones of constant values in some layers, and pilot points in other layers. Estimated K values were within one order of magnitude of aquifer performance test data. A simulation of the final two years (2005-2006) of the 12-year model, with the K estimates from the steady-state calibration, was used to guide the estimation of specific yield and specific storage values. The final model yielded head and spring-flow residuals that met the calibration criteria for the 12-year transient simulation. The overall mean residual for heads, defining residual as simulated minus measured value, was -0.04 foot. The overall root-mean square residual for heads was less than 3.6 feet for each year in the 1995 to 2006 simulation period. The overall mean residual for spring flows was -0.3 cubic foot per second. The spatial distribution of head residuals was generally random, with some minor indications of bias. Simulated average evapotranspiration (ET) over the 1995 to 2006 period was 34.5 inches per year, compared to the calculated average ET rate of 36.6 inches per year from the model-independent water-budget analysis. Simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system was 3.6 inches per year, compared with the calculated average of 3.2 inches per year from the model-independent waterbudget analysis. Groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system averaged about 800 million gallons per day, which is equivalent to about 2 inches per year over the model area and slightly more than half of the simulated average net recharge to the surficial aquifer system over the same period. Annual net simulated recharge rates to the surficial aquifer system were less than the total groundwater withdrawals from the Floridan aquifer system only during the below-average rainfall years of 2000 and 2006.

Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California -- hydrogeologic framework and transient ground-water flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belcher, Wayne R.

2004-01-01

A numerical three-dimensional (3D) transient ground-water flow model of the Death Valley region was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey for the U.S. Department of Energy programs at the Nevada Test Site and at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Decades of study of aspects of the ground-water flow system and previous less extensive ground-water flow models were incorporated and reevaluated together with new data to provide greater detail for the complex, digital model. A 3D digital hydrogeologic framework model (HFM) was developed from digital elevation models, geologic maps, borehole information, geologic and hydrogeologic cross sections, and other 3D models to represent the geometry of the hydrogeologic units (HGUs). Structural features, such as faults and fractures, that affect ground-water flow also were added. The HFM represents Precambrian and Paleozoic crystalline and sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, Mesozoic to Cenozoic intrusive rocks, Cenozoic volcanic tuffs and lavas, and late Cenozoic sedimentary deposits of the Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System (DVRFS) region in 27 HGUs. Information from a series of investigations was compiled to conceptualize and quantify hydrologic components of the ground-water flow system within the DVRFS model domain and to provide hydraulic-property and head-observation data used in the calibration of the transient-flow model. These studies reevaluated natural ground-water discharge occurring through evapotranspiration and spring flow; the history of ground-water pumping from 1913 through 1998; ground-water recharge simulated as net infiltration; model boundary inflows and outflows based on regional hydraulic gradients and water budgets of surrounding areas; hydraulic conductivity and its relation to depth; and water levels appropriate for regional simulation of prepumped and pumped conditions within the DVRFS model domain. Simulation results appropriate for the regional extent and scale of the model were provided by acquiring additional data, by reevaluating existing data using current technology and concepts, and by refining earlier interpretations to reflect the current understanding of the regional ground-water flow system. Ground-water flow in the Death Valley region is composed of several interconnected, complex ground-water flow systems. Ground-water flow occurs in three subregions in relatively shallow and localized flow paths that are superimposed on deeper, regional flow paths. Regional ground-water flow is predominantly through a thick Paleozoic carbonate rock sequence affected by complex geologic structures from regional faulting and fracturing that can enhance or impede flow. Spring flow and evapotranspiration (ET) are the dominant natural ground-water discharge processes. Ground water also is withdrawn for agricultural, commercial, and domestic uses. Ground-water flow in the DVRFS was simulated using MODFLOW-2000, a 3D finite-difference modular ground-water flow modeling code that incorporates a nonlinear least-squares regression technique to estimate aquifer parameters. The DVRFS model has 16 layers of defined thickness, a finite-difference grid consisting of 194 rows and 160 columns, and uniform cells 1,500 m on each side. Prepumping conditions (before 1913) were used as the initial conditions for the transient-state calibration. The model uses annual stress periods with discrete recharge and discharge components. Recharge occurs mostly from infiltration of precipitation and runoff on high mountain ranges and from a small amount of underflow from adjacent basins. Discharge occurs primarily through ET and spring discharge (both simulated as drains) and water withdrawal by pumping and, to a lesser amount, by underflow to adjacent basins, also simulated by drains. All parameter values estimated by the regression are reasonable and within the range of expected values. The simulated hydraulic heads of the final calibrated transient model gener

Simulation of hydrodynamics, temperature, and dissolved oxygen in Table Rock Lake, Missouri, 1996-1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, W. Reed; Galloway, Joel M.; Richards, Joseph M.; Wesolowski, Edwin A.

2003-01-01

Outflow from Table Rock Lake and other White River reservoirs support a cold-water trout fishery of substantial economic yield in south-central Missouri and north-central Arkansas. The Missouri Department of Conservation has requested an increase in existing minimum flows through the Table Rock Lake Dam from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to increase the quality of fishable waters downstream in Lake Taneycomo. Information is needed to assess the effect of increased minimum flows on temperature and dissolved- oxygen concentrations of reservoir water and the outflow. A two-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic, temperature, and dissolved-oxygen model, CE-QUAL-W2, was developed and calibrated for Table Rock Lake, located in Missouri, north of the Arkansas-Missouri State line. The model simulates water-surface elevation, heat transport, and dissolved-oxygen dynamics. The model was developed to assess the effects of proposed increases in minimum flow from about 4.4 cubic meters per second (the existing minimum flow) to 11.3 cubic meters per second (the increased minimum flow). Simulations included assessing the effect of (1) increased minimum flows and (2) increased minimum flows with increased water-surface elevations in Table Rock Lake, on outflow temperatures and dissolved-oxygen concentrations. In both minimum flow scenarios, water temperature appeared to stay the same or increase slightly (less than 0.37 ?C) and dissolved oxygen appeared to decrease slightly (less than 0.78 mg/L) in the outflow during the thermal stratification season. However, differences between the minimum flow scenarios for water temperature and dissolved- oxygen concentration and the calibrated model were similar to the differences between measured and simulated water-column profile values.

Groundwater-flow budget for the lower Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in southwestern Georgia and parts of Florida and Alabama, 2008–12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, L. Elliott; Painter, Jaime A.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Sifuentes, Dorothy F.

2017-12-29

As part of the National Water Census program in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin, the U.S. Geological Survey evaluated the groundwater budget of the lower ACF, with particular emphasis on recharge, characterizing the spatial and temporal relation between surface water and groundwater, and groundwater pumping. To evaluate the hydrologic budget of the lower ACF River Basin, a groundwater-flow model, constructed using MODFLOW-2005, was developed for the Upper Floridan aquifer and overlying semiconfining unit for 2008–12. Model input included temporally and spatially variable specified recharge, estimated using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the ACF River Basin, and pumping, partly estimated on the basis of measured agricultural pumping rates in Georgia. The model was calibrated to measured groundwater levels and base flows, which were estimated using hydrograph separation.The simulated groundwater-flow budget resulted in a small net cumulative loss of groundwater in storage during the study period. The model simulated a net loss in groundwater storage for all the subbasins as conditions became substantially drier from the beginning to the end of the study period. The model is limited by its conceptualization, the data used to represent and calibrate the model, and the mathematical representation of the system; therefore, any interpretations should be considered in light of these limitations. In spite of these limitations, the model provides insight regarding water availability in the lower ACF River Basin.

Time-dependent correlation of cerebral blood flow with oxygen metabolism in activated human visual cortex as measured by fMRI.

PubMed

Lin, Ai-Ling; Fox, Peter T; Yang, Yihong; Lu, Hanzhang; Tan, Li-Hai; Gao, Jia-Hong

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between relative cerebral blood flow (delta CBF) and relative cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen (delta CMRO(2)) during continuous visual stimulation (21 min at 8 Hz) with fMRI biophysical models by simultaneously measuring of BOLD, CBF and CBV fMRI signals. The delta CMRO(2) was determined by both a newly calibrated single-compartment model (SCM) and a multi-compartment model (MCM) and was in agreement between these two models (P>0.5). The duration-varying delta CBF and delta CMRO(2) showed a negative correlation with time (r=-0.97, P<0.001); i.e., delta CBF declines while delta CMRO(2) increases during continuous stimulation. This study also illustrated that without properly calibrating the critical parameters employed in the SCM, an incorrect and even an opposite appearance of the flow-metabolism relationship during prolonged visual stimulation (positively linear coupling) can result. The time-dependent negative correlation between flow and metabolism demonstrated in this fMRI study is consistent with a previous PET observation and further supports the view that the increase in CBF is driven by factors other than oxygen demand and the energy demands will eventually require increased aerobic metabolism as stimulation continues.

A comparison of calibration techniques for hot-wires operated in subsonic compressible slip flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Gregory S.; Stainback, P. C.; Nagabushana, K. A.

1992-01-01

This paper focuses on the correlation of constant temperature anemometer voltages to velocity, density, and total temperature in the transonic slip flow regime. Three different calibration schemes were evaluated. The ultimate use of these hot-wire calibrations is to obtain fluctuations in the flow variables. Without the appropriate mean flow sensitivities of the heated wire, the measurements of these fluctuations cannot be accurately determined.

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water flow in the upper Deschutes Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gannett, Marshall W.; Lite, Kenneth E.; Risley, John C.; Pischel, Esther M.; La Marche, Jonathan L.

2017-10-20

This report describes a hydrologic model for the upper Deschutes Basin in central Oregon developed using the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) integrated Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow model (GSFLOW). The upper Deschutes Basin, which drains much of the eastern side of the Cascade Range in Oregon, is underlain by large areas of permeable volcanic rock. That permeability, in combination with the large annual precipitation at high elevations, results in a substantial regional aquifer system and a stream system that is heavily groundwater dominated.The upper Deschutes Basin is also an area of expanding population and increasing water demand for public supply and agriculture. Surface water was largely developed for agricultural use by the mid-20th century, and is closed to additional appropriations. Consequently, water users look to groundwater to satisfy the growing demand. The well‑documented connection between groundwater and the stream system, and the institutional and legal restrictions on streamflow depletion by wells, resulted in the Oregon Water Resources Department (OWRD) instituting a process whereby additional groundwater pumping can be permitted only if the effects to streams are mitigated, for example, by reducing permitted surface-water diversions. Implementing such a program requires understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of effects to streams from groundwater pumping. A groundwater model developed in the early 2000s by the USGS and OWRD has been used to provide insights into the distribution of streamflow depletion by wells, but lacks spatial resolution in sensitive headwaters and spring areas.The integrated model developed for this project, based largely on the earlier model, has a much finer grid spacing allowing resolution of sensitive headwater streams and important spring areas, and simulates a more complete set of surface processes as well as runoff and groundwater flow. In addition, the integrated model includes improved representation of subsurface geology and explicitly simulates the effects of hydrologically important fault zones not included in the previous model.The upper Deschutes Basin GSFLOW model was calibrated using an iterative trial and error approach using measured water-level elevations (water levels) from 800 wells, 144 of which have time series of 10 or more measurements. Streamflow was calibrated using data from 21 gage locations. At 14 locations where measured flows are heavily influenced by reservoir operations and irrigation diversions, so called “naturalized” flows, with the effects of reservoirs and diversion removed, developed by the Bureau of Reclamation, were used for calibration. Surface energy and moisture processes such as solar radiation, snow accumulation and melting, and evapotranspiration were calibrated using national datasets as well as data from long-term measurement sites in the basin. The calibrated Deschutes GSFLOW model requires daily precipitation, minimum and maximum air temperature data, and monthly data describing groundwater pumping and artificial recharge from leaking irrigation canals (which are a significant source of groundwater recharge).The calibrated model simulates the geographic distribution of hydraulic head over the 5,000 ft range measured in the basin, with a median absolute residual of about 53 ft. Temporal variations in head resulting from climate cycles, pumping, and canal leakage are well simulated over the model area. Simulated daily streamflow matches gaged flows or calculated naturalized flows for streams including the Crooked and Metolius Rivers, and lower parts of the mainstem Deschutes River. Seasonal patterns of runoff are less well fit in some upper basin streams. Annual water balances of streamflow are good over most of the model domain. Model fit and overall capabilities are appropriate for the objectives of the project.The integrated model results confirm findings from other studies and models indicating that most streamflow in the upper Deschutes Basin comes directly from groundwater discharge. The integrated model provides additional insights about the components of streamflow including direct groundwater discharge to streams, interflow, groundwater discharge to the land surface (Dunnian flow), and direct runoff (Hortonian flow). The new model provides improved capability for exploring the timing and distribution of streamflow capture by wells, and the hydrologic response to changes in other external stresses such as canal operation, irrigation, and drought. Because the model uses basic meteorological data as the primary input; and simulates surface energy and moisture balances, groundwater recharge and flow, and all components of streamflow; it is well suited for exploring the hydrologic response to climate change, although no such simulations are included in this report.The model was developed as a tool for future application; however, example simulations are provided in this report. In the example simulations, the model is used to explore the influence of well location and geologic structure on stream capture by pumping wells. Wells were simulated at three locations within a 12-mi area close to known groundwater discharge areas and crossed by a regional fault zone. Simulations indicate that the magnitude and timing of stream capture from pumping is largely controlled by the geographic location of the wells, but that faults can have a large influence on the propagation of pumping stresses.

Applying genetic algorithms for calibrating a hexagonal cellular automata model for the simulation of debris flows characterised by strong inertial effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iovine, G.; D'Ambrosio, D.; Di Gregorio, S.

2005-03-01

In modelling complex a-centric phenomena which evolve through local interactions within a discrete time-space, cellular automata (CA) represent a valid alternative to standard solution methods based on differential equations. Flow-type phenomena (such as lava flows, pyroclastic flows, earth flows, and debris flows) can be viewed as a-centric dynamical systems, and they can therefore be properly investigated in CA terms. SCIDDICA S 4a is the last release of a two-dimensional hexagonal CA model for simulating debris flows characterised by strong inertial effects. S 4a has been obtained by progressively enriching an initial simplified model, originally derived for simulating very simple cases of slow-moving flow-type landslides. Using an empirical strategy, in S 4a, the inertial character of the flowing mass is translated into CA terms by means of local rules. In particular, in the transition function of the model, the distribution of landslide debris among the cells is obtained through a double cycle of computation. In the first phase, the inertial character of the landslide debris is taken into account by considering indicators of momentum. In the second phase, any remaining debris in the central cell is distributed among the adjacent cells, according to the principle of maximum possible equilibrium. The complexities of the model and of the phenomena to be simulated suggested the need for an automated technique of evaluation for the determination of the best set of global parameters. Accordingly, the model is calibrated using a genetic algorithm and by considering the May 1998 Curti-Sarno (Southern Italy) debris flow. The boundaries of the area affected by the debris flow are simulated well with the model. Errors computed by comparing the simulations with the mapped areal extent of the actual landslide are smaller than those previously obtained without genetic algorithms. As the experiments have been realised in a sequential computing environment, they could be improved by adopting a parallel environment, which allows the performance of a great number of tests in reasonable times.

Automated inverse computer modeling of borehole flow data in heterogeneous aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawdey, J. R.; Reeve, A. S.

2012-09-01

A computer model has been developed to simulate borehole flow in heterogeneous aquifers where the vertical distribution of permeability may vary significantly. In crystalline fractured aquifers, flow into or out of a borehole occurs at discrete locations of fracture intersection. Under these circumstances, flow simulations are defined by independent variables of transmissivity and far-field heads for each flow contributing fracture intersecting the borehole. The computer program, ADUCK (A Downhole Underwater Computational Kit), was developed to automatically calibrate model simulations to collected flowmeter data providing an inverse solution to fracture transmissivity and far-field head. ADUCK has been tested in variable borehole flow scenarios, and converges to reasonable solutions in each scenario. The computer program has been created using open-source software to make the ADUCK model widely available to anyone who could benefit from its utility.

Effects of ring-porous and diffuse-porous stem wood anatomy on the hydraulic parameters used in a water flow and storage model.

PubMed

Steppe, Kathy; Lemeur, Raoul

2007-01-01

Calibration of a recently developed water flow and storage model based on experimental data for a young diffuse-porous beech tree (Fagus sylvatica L.) and a young ring-porous oak tree (Quercus robur L.) revealed that differences in stem wood anatomy between species strongly affect the calibrated values of the hydraulic model parameters. The hydraulic capacitance (C) of the stem storage tissue was higher in oak than in beech (939.8 versus 212.3 mg MPa(-1)). Model simulation of the elastic modulus (epsilon) revealed that this difference was linked to the higher elasticity of the stem storage tissue of oak compared with beech. Furthermore, the hydraulic resistance (R (x)) of beech was about twice that of oak (0.1829 versus 0.1072 MPa s mg(-1)). To determine the physiological meaning of the R (x) parameter identified by model calibration, we analyzed the stem wood anatomy of the beech and oak trees. Calculation of stem specific hydraulic conductivity (k (s)) of beech and oak with the Hagen-Poiseuille equation confirmed the differences in R (x) predicted by the model. The contributions of different vessel diameter classes to the total hydraulic conductivity of the xylem were calculated. As expected, the few big vessels contributed much more to total conductivity than the many small vessels. Compared with beech, the larger vessels of oak resulted in a higher k (s) (10.66 versus 4.90 kg m(-1) s(-1) MPa(-1)). The calculated ratio of k (s) of oak to beech was 2, confirming the R (x) ratio obtained by model calibration. Thus, validation of the R (x) parameter of the model led to identification of its physiological meaning.

A mixture theory model of fluid and solute transport in the microvasculature of normal and malignant tissues. II: Factor sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation.

PubMed

Schuff, M M; Gore, J P; Nauman, E A

2013-12-01

The treatment of cancerous tumors is dependent upon the delivery of therapeutics through the blood by means of the microcirculation. Differences in the vasculature of normal and malignant tissues have been recognized, but it is not fully understood how these differences affect transport and the applicability of existing mathematical models has been questioned at the microscale due to the complex rheology of blood and fluid exchange with the tissue. In addition to determining an appropriate set of governing equations it is necessary to specify appropriate model parameters based on physiological data. To this end, a two stage sensitivity analysis is described which makes it possible to determine the set of parameters most important to the model's calibration. In the first stage, the fluid flow equations are examined and a sensitivity analysis is used to evaluate the importance of 11 different model parameters. Of these, only four substantially influence the intravascular axial flow providing a tractable set that could be calibrated using red blood cell velocity data from the literature. The second stage also utilizes a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the importance of 14 model parameters on extravascular flux. Of these, six exhibit high sensitivity and are integrated into the model calibration using a response surface methodology and experimental intra- and extravascular accumulation data from the literature (Dreher et al. in J Natl Cancer Inst 98(5):335-344, 2006). The model exhibits good agreement with the experimental results for both the mean extravascular concentration and the penetration depth as a function of time for inert dextran over a wide range of molecular weights.

Calibration of Two-dimensional Floodplain Modeling in the Atchafalaya River Basin Using SAR Interferometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Hahn Chul; Jasinski, Michael; Kim, Jin-Woo; Shum, C. K.; Bates, Paul; Lee, Hgongki; Neal, Jeffrey; Alsdorf, Doug

2012-01-01

Two-dimensional (2D) satellite imagery has been increasingly employed to improve prediction of floodplain inundation models. However, most focus has been on validation of inundation extent, with little attention on the 2D spatial variations of water elevation and slope. The availability of high resolution Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imagery offers unprecedented opportunity for quantitative validation of surface water heights and slopes derived from 2D hydrodynamic models. In this study, the LISFLOOD-ACC hydrodynamic model is applied to the central Atchafalaya River Basin, Louisiana, during high flows typical of spring floods in the Mississippi Delta region, for the purpose of demonstrating the utility of InSAR in coupled 1D/2D model calibration. Two calibration schemes focusing on Manning s roughness are compared. First, the model is calibrated in terms of water elevations at a single in situ gage during a 62 day simulation period from 1 April 2008 to 1 June 2008. Second, the model is calibrated in terms of water elevation changes calculated from ALOS PALSAR interferometry during 46 days of the image acquisition interval from 16 April 2008 to 1 June 2009. The best-fit models show that the mean absolute errors are 3.8 cm for a single in situ gage calibration and 5.7 cm/46 days for InSAR water level calibration. The optimum values of Manning's roughness coefficients are 0.024/0.10 for the channel/floodplain, respectively, using a single in situ gage, and 0.028/0.10 for channel/floodplain the using SAR. Based on the calibrated water elevation changes, daily storage changes within the size of approx 230 sq km of the model area are also calculated to be of the order of 107 cubic m/day during high water of the modeled period. This study demonstrates the feasibility of SAR interferometry to support 2D hydrodynamic model calibration and as a tool for improved understanding of complex floodplain hydrodynamics

Estimating regional-scale permeability-depth relations in a fractured-rock terrain using groundwater-flow model calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, Ward E.

2017-03-01

The trend of decreasing permeability with depth was estimated in the fractured-rock terrain of the upper Potomac River basin in the eastern USA using model calibration on 200 water-level observations in wells and 12 base-flow observations in subwatersheds. Results indicate that permeability at the 1-10 km scale (for groundwater flowpaths) decreases by several orders of magnitude within the top 100 m of land surface. This depth range represents the transition from the weathered, fractured regolith into unweathered bedrock. This rate of decline is substantially greater than has been observed by previous investigators that have plotted in situ wellbore measurements versus depth. The difference is that regional water levels give information on kilometer-scale connectivity of the regolith and adjacent fracture networks, whereas in situ measurements give information on near-hole fractures and fracture networks. The approach taken was to calibrate model layer-to-layer ratios of hydraulic conductivity (LLKs) for each major rock type. Most rock types gave optimal LLK values of 40-60, where each layer was twice a thick as the one overlying it. Previous estimates of permeability with depth from deeper data showed less of a decline at <300 m than the regional modeling results. There was less certainty in the modeling results deeper than 200 m and for certain rock types where fewer water-level observations were available. The results have implications for improved understanding of watershed-scale groundwater flow and transport, such as for the timing of the migration of pollutants from the water table to streams.

Estimating regional-scale permeability–depth relations in a fractured-rock terrain using groundwater-flow model calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, Ward E.

2017-01-01

The trend of decreasing permeability with depth was estimated in the fractured-rock terrain of the upper Potomac River basin in the eastern USA using model calibration on 200 water-level observations in wells and 12 base-flow observations in subwatersheds. Results indicate that permeability at the 1–10 km scale (for groundwater flowpaths) decreases by several orders of magnitude within the top 100 m of land surface. This depth range represents the transition from the weathered, fractured regolith into unweathered bedrock. This rate of decline is substantially greater than has been observed by previous investigators that have plotted in situ wellbore measurements versus depth. The difference is that regional water levels give information on kilometer-scale connectivity of the regolith and adjacent fracture networks, whereas in situ measurements give information on near-hole fractures and fracture networks. The approach taken was to calibrate model layer-to-layer ratios of hydraulic conductivity (LLKs) for each major rock type. Most rock types gave optimal LLK values of 40–60, where each layer was twice a thick as the one overlying it. Previous estimates of permeability with depth from deeper data showed less of a decline at <300 m than the regional modeling results. There was less certainty in the modeling results deeper than 200 m and for certain rock types where fewer water-level observations were available. The results have implications for improved understanding of watershed-scale groundwater flow and transport, such as for the timing of the migration of pollutants from the water table to streams.

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

1998 Calibration of the Mach 4.7 and Mach 6 Arc-Heated Scramjet Test Facility Nozzles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Witte, David W.; Irby, Richard G.; Auslender, Aaron H.; Rock, Kenneth E.

2004-01-01

A calibration of the Arc-Heated Scramjet Test Facility (AHSTF) Mach 4.7 and Mach 6 nozzles was performed in 1998. For each nozzle, three different typical facility operating test points were selected for calibration. Each survey consisted of measurements, at 340 separate locations across the 11 inch square nozzle exit plane, of pitot pressure, static pressure, and total temperature. Measurement density was higher (4/inch) in the boundary layer near the nozzle wall than in the core nozzle flow (1/inch). The results generated for each of these calibration surveys were contour plots at the nozzle exit plane of the measured and calculated flow properties which completely defined the thermodynamic state of the nozzle exit flow. An area integration of the mass flux at the nozzle exit for each survey was compared to the AHSTF mass flow meter results to provide an indication of the overall quality of the calibration performed. The percent difference between the integrated nozzle exit mass flow and the flow meter ranged from 0.0 to 1.3 percent for the six surveys. Finally, a comparison of this 1998 calibration was made with the 1986 calibration. Differences of less than 10 percent were found within the nozzle core flow while in the boundary layer differences on the order of 20 percent were quite common.

Evaluation of Parameter Uncertainty Reduction in Groundwater Flow Modeling Using Multiple Environmental Tracers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, B. W.; Gardner, P.

2013-12-01

Calibration of groundwater flow models for the purpose of evaluating flow and aquifer heterogeneity typically uses observations of hydraulic head in wells and appropriate boundary conditions. Environmental tracers have a wide variety of decay rates and input signals in recharge, resulting in a potentially broad source of additional information to constrain flow rates and heterogeneity. A numerical study was conducted to evaluate the reduction in uncertainty during model calibration using observations of various environmental tracers and combinations of tracers. A synthetic data set was constructed by simulating steady groundwater flow and transient tracer transport in a high-resolution, 2-D aquifer with heterogeneous permeability and porosity using the PFLOTRAN software code. Data on pressure and tracer concentration were extracted at well locations and then used as observations for automated calibration of a flow and transport model using the pilot point method and the PEST code. Optimization runs were performed to estimate parameter values of permeability at 30 pilot points in the model domain for cases using 42 observations of: 1) pressure, 2) pressure and CFC11 concentrations, 3) pressure and Ar-39 concentrations, and 4) pressure, CFC11, Ar-39, tritium, and He-3 concentrations. Results show significantly lower uncertainty, as indicated by the 95% linear confidence intervals, in permeability values at the pilot points for cases including observations of environmental tracer concentrations. The average linear uncertainty range for permeability at the pilot points using pressure observations alone is 4.6 orders of magnitude, using pressure and CFC11 concentrations is 1.6 orders of magnitude, using pressure and Ar-39 concentrations is 0.9 order of magnitude, and using pressure, CFC11, Ar-39, tritium, and He-3 concentrations is 1.0 order of magnitude. Data on Ar-39 concentrations result in the greatest parameter uncertainty reduction because its half-life of 269 years is similar to the range of transport times (hundreds to thousands of years) in the heterogeneous synthetic aquifer domain. The slightly higher uncertainty range for the case using all of the environmental tracers simultaneously is probably due to structural errors in the model introduced by the pilot point regularization scheme. It is concluded that maximum information and uncertainty reduction for constraining a groundwater flow model is obtained using an environmental tracer whose half-life is well matched to the range of transport times through the groundwater flow system. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

A model for prediction of STOVL ejector dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, Colin K.

1989-01-01

A semi-empirical control-volume approach to ejector modeling for transient performance prediction is presented. This new approach is motivated by the need for a predictive real-time ejector sub-system simulation for Short Take-Off Verticle Landing (STOVL) integrated flight and propulsion controls design applications. Emphasis is placed on discussion of the approximate characterization of the mixing process central to thrust augmenting ejector operation. The proposed ejector model suggests transient flow predictions are possible with a model based on steady-flow data. A practical test case is presented to illustrate model calibration.

Development and Application of a Process-based River System Model at a Continental Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. S. H.; Dutta, D.; Vaze, J.; Hughes, J. D.; Yang, A.; Teng, J.

2014-12-01

Existing global and continental scale river models, mainly designed for integrating with global climate model, are of very course spatial resolutions and they lack many important hydrological processes, such as overbank flow, irrigation diversion, groundwater seepage/recharge, which operate at a much finer resolution. Thus, these models are not suitable for producing streamflow forecast at fine spatial resolution and water accounts at sub-catchment levels, which are important for water resources planning and management at regional and national scale. A large-scale river system model has been developed and implemented for water accounting in Australia as part of the Water Information Research and Development Alliance between Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and CSIRO. The model, developed using node-link architecture, includes all major hydrological processes, anthropogenic water utilisation and storage routing that influence the streamflow in both regulated and unregulated river systems. It includes an irrigation model to compute water diversion for irrigation use and associated fluxes and stores and a storage-based floodplain inundation model to compute overbank flow from river to floodplain and associated floodplain fluxes and stores. An auto-calibration tool has been built within the modelling system to automatically calibrate the model in large river systems using Shuffled Complex Evolution optimiser and user-defined objective functions. The auto-calibration tool makes the model computationally efficient and practical for large basin applications. The model has been implemented in several large basins in Australia including the Murray-Darling Basin, covering more than 2 million km2. The results of calibration and validation of the model shows highly satisfactory performance. The model has been operalisationalised in BoM for producing various fluxes and stores for national water accounting. This paper introduces this newly developed river system model describing the conceptual hydrological framework, methods used for representing different hydrological processes in the model and the results and evaluation of the model performance. The operational implementation of the model for water accounting is discussed.

Evaluation of blood flow in human exercising muscle by diffuse correlation spectroscopy: a phantom model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakabayashi, Mikie; Ono, Yumie; Ichinose, Masashi

2018-02-01

Diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS) has a potential to noninvasively and quantitatively measure the blood flow in the exercising muscle that could contribute to the fields of sports physiology and medicine. However, the blood flow index (BFI) measured from skin surface by DCS reflects hemodynamic signals from both superficial tissue and muscle layer. Thus, an appropriate calibration technology is required to quantify the absolute blood flow in the muscle layer. We therefore fabricated a realistic two-layer phantom model consisted of a static silicon layer imitating superficial tissue and a dynamic flow layer imitating the muscle blood flow and investigated the relationship between the simulated blood flow rate in the muscle layer and the BFI measured from the surface of the phantom. The absorption coefficient and the reduced scattering coefficient of the forearm were measured from 25 healthy young adults using a time-resolved nearinfrared spectroscopy. The depths of the superficial and muscle layers of forearm were also determined by ultrasound tomography images from 25 healthy young adults. The phantoms were fabricated to satisfy these optical coefficients and anatomical constraints. The simulated blood flow rate were set from 0 mL/ min to 68.7 mL/ min in ten steps, which is considered to cover a physiological range of mean blood flow of the forearm between per 100g of muscle tissue at rest to heavy dynamic handgrip exercise. We found a proportional relationship between the flow rates and BFIs with significant correlation coefficient of R = 0.986. Our results suggest that the absolute exercising muscle blood flow could be estimated by DCS with optimal calibration using phantom models.

Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buccola, Norman L.; Stonewall, Adam J.; Sullivan, Annett B.; Kim, Yoonhee; Rounds, Stewart A.

2013-01-01

Hydrodynamic (CE-QUAL-W2) models of Hills Creek Lake (HCL), Lookout Point Lake (LOP), and Dexter Lake (DEX) on the Middle Fork Willamette River (MFWR), and models of Green Peter Lake and Foster Lake on the South Santiam River systems in western Oregon were updated and recalibrated for a wide range of flow and meteorological conditions. These CE-QUAL-W2 models originally were developed by West Consultants, Inc., for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This study by the U.S. Geological Survey included a reassessment of the models’ calibration in more recent years—2002, 2006, 2008, and 2011—categorized respectively as low, normal, high, and extremely high flow calendar years. These years incorporated current dam-operation practices and more available data than the time period used in the original calibration. Modeled water temperatures downstream of both HCL and LOP-DEX on the MFWR were within an average of 0.68 degree Celsius (°C) of measured values; modeled temperatures downstream of Foster Dam on the South Santiam River were within an average of 0.65°C of measured values. A new CE-QUAL-W2 model was developed and calibrated for the riverine MFWR reach between Hills Creek Dam and the head of LOP, allowing an evaluation of the flow and temperature conditions in the entire MFWR system from HCL to Dexter Dam. The complex bathymetry and long residence time of HCL, combined with the relatively deep location of the power and regulating outlet structures at Hills Creek Dam, led to a HCL model that was highly sensitive to several outlet and geometric parameters related to dam structures (STR TOP, STR BOT, STR WIDTH). Release temperatures from HCL were important and often persisted downstream as they were incorporated in the MFWR model and the LOP-DEX model (downstream of MFWR). The models tended to underpredict the measured temperature of water releases from Dexter Dam during the late-September-through-December drawdown period in 2002, and again (to a lesser extent) in 2011, but simulations were much more accurate in 2006 and 2008. This episodic model bias may have been a result of hot, dry conditions; lower lake elevations; and earlier drawdown at both HCL and LOP in 2002. These dry conditions in 2002 may have contradicted assumptions inherent in the estimation of certain model inputs, such as unmeasured inflows and water temperatures, which may respond differently during dry years than during normal and wet years. This report documents the development and calibration of new and revised flow and water-temperature models for riverine and reservoir reaches in the Middle Fork Willamette River and South Santiam River systems. Methods and model parameter values were established for the accurate simulation of flows and temperatures in these systems under current conditions. By extension, these models should be able to accurately simulate flows and temperatures under potential future conditions in which dam operations and dam outlet structures may be changed as part of a strategy to improve habitat, fish passage, and temperature conditions for endangered fish.

Photogrammetry Applied to Wind Tunnel Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Tian-Shu; Cattafesta, L. N., III; Radeztsky, R. H.; Burner, A. W.

2000-01-01

In image-based measurements, quantitative image data must be mapped to three-dimensional object space. Analytical photogrammetric methods, which may be used to accomplish this task, are discussed from the viewpoint of experimental fluid dynamicists. The Direct Linear Transformation (DLT) for camera calibration, used in pressure sensitive paint, is summarized. An optimization method for camera calibration is developed that can be used to determine the camera calibration parameters, including those describing lens distortion, from a single image. Combined with the DLT method, this method allows a rapid and comprehensive in-situ camera calibration and therefore is particularly useful for quantitative flow visualization and other measurements such as model attitude and deformation in production wind tunnels. The paper also includes a brief description of typical photogrammetric applications to temperature- and pressure-sensitive paint measurements and model deformation measurements in wind tunnels.

Empirical regression models for estimating nitrogen removal in a stormwater wetland during dry and wet days.

PubMed

Guerra, Heidi B; Park, Kisoo; Kim, Youngchul

2013-01-01

Due to the highly variable hydrologic quantity and quality of stormwater runoff, which requires more complex models for proper prediction of treatment, a relatively few and site-specific models for stormwater wetlands have been developed. In this study, regression models based on extensive operational data and wastewater wetlands were adapted to a stormwater wetland receiving both base flow and storm flow from an agricultural area. The models were calibrated in Excel Solver using 15 sets of operational data gathered from random sampling during dry days. The calibrated models were then applied to 20 sets of event mean concentration data from composite sampling during 20 independent rainfall events. For dry days, the models estimated effluent concentrations of nitrogen species that were close to the measured values. However, overestimations during wet days were made for NH(3)-N and total Kjeldahl nitrogen, which resulted from higher hydraulic loading rates and influent nitrogen concentrations during storm flows. The results showed that biological nitrification and denitrification was the major nitrogen removal mechanism during dry days. Meanwhile, during wet days, the prevailing aerobic conditions decreased the denitrification capacity of the wetland, and sedimentation of particulate organic nitrogen and particle-associated forms of nitrogen was increased.

Regional stochastic generation of streamflows using an ARIMA (1,0,1) process and disaggregation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armbruster, Jeffrey T.

1979-01-01

An ARIMA (1,0,1) model was calibrated and used to generate long annual flow sequences at three sites in the Juniata River basin, Pennsylvania. The model preserves the mean, variance, and cross correlations of the observed station data. In addition, it has a desirable blend of both high and low frequency characteristics and therefore is capable of preserving the Hurst coefficient, h. The generated annual flows are disaggregated into monthly sequences using a modification of the Valencia-Schaake model. The low-flow frequency and flow duration characteristics of the generated monthly flows, with length equal to the historical data, compare favorably with the historical data. Once the models were verified, 100-year sequences were generated and analyzed for their low flow characteristics. One-, three- and six- month low-flow frequencies at recurrence intervals greater than 10 years are generally found to be lower than flow computed from the historical flows. A method is proposed for synthesizing flows at ungaged sites. (Kosco-USGS)

Evaluation of the hooghoudt and kirkham tile drain equations in the soil and water assessment tool to simulate tile flow and nitrate-nitrogen.

PubMed

Moriasi, Daniel N; Gowda, Prasanna H; Arnold, Jeffrey G; Mulla, David J; Ale, Srinivasulu; Steiner, Jean L; Tomer, Mark D

2013-11-01

Subsurface tile drains in agricultural systems of the midwestern United States are a major contributor of nitrate-N (NO-N) loadings to hypoxic conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. Hydrologic and water quality models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, are widely used to simulate tile drainage systems. The Hooghoudt and Kirkham tile drain equations in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool have not been rigorously tested for predicting tile flow and the corresponding NO-N losses. In this study, long-term (1983-1996) monitoring plot data from southern Minnesota were used to evaluate the SWAT version 2009 revision 531 (hereafter referred to as SWAT) model for accurately estimating subsurface tile drain flows and associated NO-N losses. A retention parameter adjustment factor was incorporated to account for the effects of tile drainage and slope changes on the computation of surface runoff using the curve number method (hereafter referred to as Revised SWAT). The SWAT and Revised SWAT models were calibrated and validated for tile flow and associated NO-N losses. Results indicated that, on average, Revised SWAT predicted monthly tile flow and associated NO-N losses better than SWAT by 48 and 28%, respectively. For the calibration period, the Revised SWAT model simulated tile flow and NO-N losses within 4 and 1% of the observed data, respectively. For the validation period, it simulated tile flow and NO-N losses within 8 and 2%, respectively, of the observed values. Therefore, the Revised SWAT model is expected to provide more accurate simulation of the effectiveness of tile drainage and NO-N management practices. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

40 CFR 1065.330 - Exhaust-flow calibration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... CONTROLS ENGINE-TESTING PROCEDURES Calibrations and Verifications Flow-Related Measurements § 1065.330... use other reference meters such as laminar flow elements, which are not commonly designed to withstand...

Simulation and video animation of canal flushing created by a tide gate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoellhamer, David H.

1988-01-01

A tide-gate algorithm was added to a one-dimensional unsteady flow model that was calibrated, verified, and used to determine the locations of as many as five tide gates that would maximize flushing in two canal systems. Results from the flow model were used to run a branched Lagrangian transport model to simulate the flushing of a conservative constituent from the canal systems both with and without tide gates. A tide gate produces a part-time riverine flow through the canal system that improves flushing along the flow path created by the tide gate. Flushing with no tide gates and with a single optimally located tide gate are shown with a video animation.

A flow-simulation model of the tidal Potomac River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaffranek, Raymond W.

1987-01-01

A one-dimensional model capable of simulating flow in a network of interconnected channels has been applied to the tidal Potomac River including its major tributaries and embayments between Washington, D.C., and Indian Head, Md. The model can be used to compute water-surface elevations and flow discharges at any of 66 predetermined locations or at any alternative river cross sections definable within the network of channels. In addition, the model can be used to provide tidal-interchange flow volumes and to evaluate tidal excursions and the flushing properties of the riverine system. Comparisons of model-computed results with measured watersurface elevations and discharges demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the model. Tidal-cycle flow volumes computed by the calibrated model have been verified to be within an accuracy of ? 10 percent. Quantitative characteristics of the hydrodynamics of the tidal river are identified and discussed. The comprehensive flow data provided by the model can be used to better understand the geochemical, biological, and other processes affecting the river's water quality.

An Investigation of Slurry Fuel Combustion.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

tit Lil’ sitas wtae f).4 mm ap.art. w w =Q L-1~ rAn Li w > 0 0- - q The propane gas flow rate was metered withi a Matlieson Model 604 rotameter and...controlled by a Harris Model 2515 pressure regulator with an output capacity of 0-0.69 MPa. The flow rate of the iydrog’en gas was metered with a...propane 3nd hydrogen flows were calibrated with a Precision Scientific Companv wet-test meter (2.83 ml/rev). The fuel drops were mounted with a

Mechanosensation and the Primary Cilium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaser, Joseph; Resnick, Andrew

2010-10-01

The primary cilium has come under increased scrutiny as a site for mechano- and chemosensation by cells. We have undertaken a program of study using mouse renal cell lines from the cortical collecting duct to quantify how mechanical forces arising from fluid shear are transduced into cellular responses. Fluid flow through a model nephron has been analyzed to determine the in vivo forces. A novel tissue culture flow chamber permitting accurate reproduction of physiologically relevant conditions has been calibrated. We have determined that in vivo conditions can be accurately modeled in our flow chamber.

Using SCADA Data, Field Studies, and Real-Time Modeling to Calibrate Flint's Hydraulic Model

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has been providing technical assistance to the City of Flint and the State of Michigan in response to the drinking water lead contamination incident. Responders quickly recognized the need for a water distribution system hydraulic model to provide insight on flow patterns an...

[Feasibility Study on Digital Signal Processor and Gear Pump of Uroflowmeter Calibration Device].

PubMed

Yuan, Qing; Ji, Jun; Gao, Jiashuo; Wang, Lixin; Xiao, Hong

2016-08-01

It will cause hidden trouble on clinical application if the uroflowmeter is out of control.This paper introduces a scheme of uroflowmeter calibration device based on digital signal processor(DSP)and gear pump and shows studies of its feasibility.According to the research plan,we analyzed its stability,repeatability and linearity by building a testing system and carried out experiments on it.The flow test system is composed of DSP,gear pump and other components.The test results showed that the system could produce a stable water flow with high precision of repeated measurement and different flow rate.The test system can calibrate the urine flow rate well within the range of 9~50mL/s which has clinical significance,and the flow error is less than 1%,which meets the technical requirements of the calibration apparatus.The research scheme of uroflowmeter calibration device on DSP and gear pump is feasible.

Calibration of discrete element model parameters: soybeans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghodki, Bhupendra M.; Patel, Manish; Namdeo, Rohit; Carpenter, Gopal

2018-05-01

Discrete element method (DEM) simulations are broadly used to get an insight of flow characteristics of granular materials in complex particulate systems. DEM input parameters for a model are the critical prerequisite for an efficient simulation. Thus, the present investigation aims to determine DEM input parameters for Hertz-Mindlin model using soybeans as a granular material. To achieve this aim, widely acceptable calibration approach was used having standard box-type apparatus. Further, qualitative and quantitative findings such as particle profile, height of kernels retaining the acrylic wall, and angle of repose of experiments and numerical simulations were compared to get the parameters. The calibrated set of DEM input parameters includes the following (a) material properties: particle geometric mean diameter (6.24 mm); spherical shape; particle density (1220 kg m^{-3} ), and (b) interaction parameters such as particle-particle: coefficient of restitution (0.17); coefficient of static friction (0.26); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08), and particle-wall: coefficient of restitution (0.35); coefficient of static friction (0.30); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08). The results may adequately be used to simulate particle scale mechanics (grain commingling, flow/motion, forces, etc) of soybeans in post-harvest machinery and devices.

Hydrodynamic modelling of a tidal delta wetland using an enhanced quasi-2D model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wester, Sjoerd J.; Grimson, Rafael; Minotti, Priscilla G.; Booija, Martijn J.; Brugnach, Marcela

2018-04-01

Knowledge about the hydrological regime of wetlands is key to understand their physical and biological properties. Modelling hydrological and hydrodynamic processes within a wetland is therefore becoming increasingly important. 3D models have successfully modelled wetland dynamics but depend on very detailed bathymetry and land topography. Many 1D and 2D models of river deltas highly simplify the interaction between the river and wetland area or simply neglect the wetland area. This study proposes an enhanced quasi-2D modelling strategy that captures the interaction between river discharge and moon tides and the resulting hydrodynamics, while using the scarce data available. The water flow equations are discretised with an interconnected irregular cell scheme, in which a simplification of the 1D Saint-Venant equations is used to define the water flow between cells. The spatial structure of wetlands is based on the ecogeomorphology in complex estuarine deltas. The islands within the delta are modelled with levee cells, creek cells and an interior cell representing a shallow marsh wetland. The model is calibrated for an average year and the model performance is evaluated for another average year and additionally an extreme dry three-month period and an extreme wet three-month period. The calibration and evaluation are done based on two water level measurement stations and two discharge measurement stations, all located in the main rivers. Additional calibration is carried out with field water level measurements in a wetland area. Accurate simulations are obtained for both calibration and evaluation with high correlations between observed and simulated water levels and simulated discharges in the same order of magnitude as observed discharges. Calibration against field measurements showed that the model can successfully simulate the overflow mechanism in wetland areas. A sensitivity analysis for several wetland parameters showed that these parameters are all influencing the water level fluctuation within the wetlands to varying degrees. The enhanced quasi-2D model has the potential to accurately simulate river and wetland dynamics for large wetland areas and help to understand their hydrodynamics.

A one-dimensional, steady-state, dissolved-oxygen model and waste-load assimilation study for Clear Creek, Monroe County, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilber, William G.; Crawford, Charles G.; Peters, J.G.; Girardi, F.P.

1979-01-01

A digital model calibrated to conditions in Clear Creek, Monroe County, IN, was used to develop alternatives for future waste loadings that would be compatible with Indiana stream water-quality standards defined for two critical hydrologic conditions, summer and winter low flows. The Winston Thomas wastewater-treatment facility is the only point-source waste load affecting the modeled reach of Clear Creek. A new waste-water-treatment facility under construction at Dillman Road (river mile 13.78) will replace the Winston Thomas wastewater-treatment facility (river mile 16.96) in 1980. Natural streamflow during the summer and annual 7-day, 10-year low flow is zero, so no benefit from dilution is provided. The model indicates that ammonia-nitrogen toxicity is the most significant factor affecting the stream water quality during summer and winter low flows. The ammonia-nitrogen concentration of the wastewater effluent exceeds the maximum total ammonia-nitrogen concentration of 2.5 milligrams per liter for summer months (June through August) and 4.0 milligrams per liter for winter months (November through March) required for Indiana streams. Nitrification, benthic-oxygen demand, and algal respiration were the most significant factors affecting the dissolved-oxygen concentration in Clear Creek during the model calibration. Nitrification should not significantly affect the dissolved-oxygen concentration in Clear Creek during summer low flows when the ammonia-nitrogen toxicity standards are met. (USGS)

Building and Characterizing Volcanic Landscapes with a Numerical Landscape Evolution Model and Spectral Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, P. W.; Karlstrom, L.

2016-12-01

The competition between constructional volcanic processes such as lava flows, cinder cones, and tumuli compete with physical and chemical erosional processes to control the morphology of mafic volcanic landscapes. If volcanic effusion rates are high, these landscapes are primarily constructional, but over the timescales associated with hot spot volcanism (1-10 Myr) and arcs (10-50 Myr), chemical and physical erosional processes are important. For fluvial incision to occur, initially high infiltration rates must be overcome by chemical weathering or input of fine-grained sediment. We investigate lava flow resurfacing, using a new lava flow algorithm that can be calibrated for specific flows and eruption magnitude/frequency relationships, into a landscape evolution model to complete two modeling experiments to investigate the interplay between volcanic resurfacing and fluvial incision. We use a stochastic spatial vent distribution calibrated from the Hawaiian eruption record to resurface a synthetically produced ocean island. In one experiment, we investigate the consequences of including time-dependent channel incision efficiency. This effectively mimics the behavior of transient hydrological development of lava flows. In the second experiment, we explore the competition between channel incision and lava flow resurfacing. The relative magnitudes of channel incision versus lava flow resurfacing are captured in landscape topography. For example, during the shield building period for ocean islands, effusion rates are high and the signature of lava flow resurfacing dominates. In contrast, after the shield building phase, channel incision begins and eventually dominates the topographic signature. We develop a dimensionless ratio of resurfacing rate to erosion rate to characterize the transition between these processes. We use spectral techniques to characterize volcanic features and to pinpoint the transition between constructional and erosional morphology on modeled landscapes and on the Big Island of Hawaii.

3D aquifer characterization using stochastic streamline calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Minchul

2007-03-01

In this study, a new inverse approach, stochastic streamline calibration is proposed. Using both a streamline concept and a stochastic technique, stochastic streamline calibration optimizes an identified field to fit in given observation data in a exceptionally fast and stable fashion. In the stochastic streamline calibration, streamlines are adopted as basic elements not only for describing fluid flow but also for identifying the permeability distribution. Based on the streamline-based inversion by Agarwal et al. [Agarwal B, Blunt MJ. Streamline-based method with full-physics forward simulation for history matching performance data of a North sea field. SPE J 2003;8(2):171-80], Wang and Kovscek [Wang Y, Kovscek AR. Streamline approach for history matching production data. SPE J 2000;5(4):353-62], permeability is modified rather along streamlines than at the individual gridblocks. Permeabilities in the gridblocks which a streamline passes are adjusted by being multiplied by some factor such that we can match flow and transport properties of the streamline. This enables the inverse process to achieve fast convergence. In addition, equipped with a stochastic module, the proposed technique supportively calibrates the identified field in a stochastic manner, while incorporating spatial information into the field. This prevents the inverse process from being stuck in local minima and helps search for a globally optimized solution. Simulation results indicate that stochastic streamline calibration identifies an unknown permeability exceptionally quickly. More notably, the identified permeability distribution reflected realistic geological features, which had not been achieved in the original work by Agarwal et al. with the limitations of the large modifications along streamlines for matching production data only. The constructed model by stochastic streamline calibration forecasted transport of plume which was similar to that of a reference model. By this, we can expect the proposed approach to be applied to the construction of an aquifer model and forecasting of the aquifer performances of interest.

Simulating groundwater flow in karst aquifers with distributed parameter models—Comparison of porous-equivalent media and hybrid flow approaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuniansky, Eve L.

2016-09-22

Understanding karst aquifers, for purposes of their management and protection, poses unique challenges. Karst aquifers are characterized by groundwater flow through conduits (tertiary porosity), and (or) layers with interconnected pores (secondary porosity) and through intergranular porosity (primary or matrix porosity). Since the late 1960s, advances have been made in the development of numerical computer codes and the use of mathematical model applications towards the understanding of dual (primary [matrix] and secondary [fractures and conduits]) porosity groundwater flow processes, as well as characterization and management of karst aquifers. The Floridan aquifer system (FAS) in Florida and parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina is composed of a thick sequence of predominantly carbonate rocks. Karst features are present over much of its area, especially in Florida where more than 30 first-magnitude springs occur, numerous sinkholes and submerged conduits have been mapped, and numerous circular lakes within sinkhole depressions are present. Different types of mathematical models have been applied for simulation of the FAS. Most of these models are distributed parameter models based on the assumption that, like a sponge, water flows through connected pores within the aquifer system and can be simulated with the same mathematical methods applied to flow through sand and gravel aquifers; these models are usually referred to as porous-equivalent media models. The partial differential equation solved for groundwater flow is the potential flow equation of fluid mechanics, which is used when flow is dominated by potential energy and has been applied for many fluid problems in which kinetic energy terms are dropped from the differential equation solved. In many groundwater model codes (basic MODFLOW), it is assumed that the water has a constant temperature and density and that flow is laminar, such that kinetic energy has minimal impact on flow. Some models have been developed that incorporate the submerged conduits as a one-dimensional pipe network within the aquifer rather than as discrete, extremely transmissive features in a porous-equivalent medium; these submerged conduit models are usually referred to as hybrid models and may include the capability to simulate both laminar and turbulent flow in the one-dimensional pipe network. Comparisons of the application of a porous-equivalent media model with and without turbulence (MODFLOW-Conduit Flow Process mode 2 and basic MODFLOW, respectively) and a hybrid (MODFLOW-Conduit Flow Process mode 1) model to the Woodville Karst Plain near Tallahassee, Florida, indicated that for annual, monthly, or seasonal average hydrologic conditions, all methods met calibration criteria (matched observed groundwater levels and average flows). Thus, the increased effort required, such as the collection of data on conduit location, to develop a hybrid model and its increased computational burden, is not necessary for simulation of average hydrologic conditions (non-laminar flow effects on simulated head and spring discharge were minimal). However, simulation of a large storm event in the Woodville Karst Plain with daily stress periods indicated that turbulence is important for matching daily springflow hydrographs. Thus, if matching streamflow hydrographs over a storm event is required, the simulation of non-laminar flow and the location of conduits are required. The main challenge in application of the methods and approaches for developing hybrid models relates to the difficulty of mapping conduit networks or having high-quality datasets to calibrate these models. Additionally, hybrid models have long simulation times, which can preclude the use of parameter estimation for calibration. Simulation of contaminant transport that does not account for preferential flow through conduits or extremely permeable zones in any approach is ill-advised. Simulation results in other karst aquifers or other parts of the FAS may differ from the comparison demonstrated herein.

ANN-based calibration model of FTIR used in transformer online monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Honglei; Liu, Xian-yong; Zhou, Fangjie; Tan, Kexiong

2005-02-01

Recently, chromatography column and gas sensor have been used in online monitoring device of dissolved gases in transformer oil. But some disadvantages still exist in these devices: consumption of carrier gas, requirement of calibration, etc. Since FTIR has high accuracy, consume no carrier gas and require no calibration, the researcher studied the application of FTIR in such monitoring device. Experiments of "Flow gas method" were designed, and spectrum of mixture composed of different gases was collected with A BOMEM MB104 FTIR Spectrometer. A key question in the application of FTIR is that: the absorbance spectrum of 3 fault key gases, including C2H4, CH4 and C2H6, are overlapped seriously at 2700~3400cm-1. Because Absorbance Law is no longer appropriate, a nonlinear calibration model based on BP ANN was setup to in the quantitative analysis. The height absorbance of C2H4, CH4 and C2H6 were adopted as quantitative feature, and all the data were normalized before training the ANN. Computing results show that the calibration model can effectively eliminate the cross disturbance to measurement.

PolarWindsII_DAWN_DC8_1

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-04-18

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An approximate analytical solution for describing surface runoff and sediment transport over hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Wanghai; Wang, Quanjiu; Lin, Henry

2018-03-01

Soil and water loss from farmland causes land degradation and water pollution, thus continued efforts are needed to establish mathematical model for quantitative analysis of relevant processes and mechanisms. In this study, an approximate analytical solution has been developed for overland flow model and sediment transport model, offering a simple and effective means to predict overland flow and erosion under natural rainfall conditions. In the overland flow model, the flow regime was considered to be transitional with the value of parameter β (in the kinematic wave model) approximately two. The change rate of unit discharge with distance was assumed to be constant and equal to the runoff rate at the outlet of the plane. The excess rainfall was considered to be constant under uniform rainfall conditions. The overland flow model developed can be further applied to natural rainfall conditions by treating excess rainfall intensity as constant over a small time interval. For the sediment model, the recommended values of the runoff erosion calibration constant (cr) and the splash erosion calibration constant (cf) have been given in this study so that it is easier to use the model. These recommended values are 0.15 and 0.12, respectively. Comparisons with observed results were carried out to validate the proposed analytical solution. The results showed that the approximate analytical solution developed in this paper closely matches the observed data, thus providing an alternative method of predicting runoff generation and sediment yield, and offering a more convenient method of analyzing the quantitative relationships between variables. Furthermore, the model developed in this study can be used as a theoretical basis for developing runoff and erosion control methods.

Modeling highly transient flow, mass, and heat transport in the Chattahoochee River near Atlanta, Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jobson, Harvey E.; Keefer, Thomas N.

1979-01-01

A coupled flow-temperature model has been developed and verified for a 27.9-km reach of the Chattahoochee River between Buford Dam and Norcross, Ga. Flow in this reach of the Chattahoochee is continuous but highly regulated by Buford Dam, a flood-control and hydroelectric facility located near Buford, Ga. Calibration and verification utilized two sets of data collected under highly unsteady discharge conditions. Existing solution techniques, with certain minor improvements, were applied to verify the existing technology of flow and transport modeling. A linear, implicit finite-difference flow model was coupled with implicit, finite-difference transport and temperature models. Both the conservative and nonconservative forms of the transport equation were solved, and the difference in the predicted concentrations of dye were found to be insignificant. The temperature model, therefore, was based on the simpler nonconservative form of the transport equation. (Woodard-USGS)

Using large hydrological datasets to create a robust, physically based, spatially distributed model for Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Elizabeth; Kilsby, Chris; Fowler, Hayley

2014-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrological systems requires further quantification in order to inform water management. This study intends to conduct such analysis using hydrological models. Such models are of varying forms, of which conceptual, lumped parameter models and physically-based models are two important types. The majority of hydrological studies use conceptual models calibrated against measured river flow time series in order to represent catchment behaviour. This method often shows impressive results for specific problems in gauged catchments. However, the results may not be robust under non-stationary conditions such as climate change, as physical processes and relationships amenable to change are not accounted for explicitly. Moreover, conceptual models are less readily applicable to ungauged catchments, in which hydrological predictions are also required. As such, the physically based, spatially distributed model SHETRAN is used in this study to develop a robust and reliable framework for modelling historic and future behaviour of gauged and ungauged catchments across the whole of Great Britain. In order to achieve this, a large array of data completely covering Great Britain for the period 1960-2006 has been collated and efficiently stored ready for model input. The data processed include a DEM, rainfall, PE and maps of geology, soil and land cover. A desire to make the modelling system easy for others to work with led to the development of a user-friendly graphical interface. This allows non-experts to set up and run a catchment model in a few seconds, a process that can normally take weeks or months. The quality and reliability of the extensive dataset for modelling hydrological processes has also been evaluated. One aspect of this has been an assessment of error and uncertainty in rainfall input data, as well as the effects of temporal resolution in precipitation inputs on model calibration. SHETRAN has been updated to accept gridded rainfall inputs, and UKCP09 gridded daily rainfall data has been disaggregated using hourly records to analyse the implications of using realistic sub-daily variability. Furthermore, the development of a comprehensive dataset and computationally efficient means of setting up and running catchment models has allowed for examination of how a robust parameter scheme may be derived. This analysis has been based on collective parameterisation of multiple catchments in contrasting hydrological settings and subject to varied processes. 350 gauged catchments all over the UK have been simulated, and a robust set of parameters is being sought by examining the full range of hydrological processes and calibrating to a highly diverse flow data series. The modelling system will be used to generate flow time series based on historical input data and also downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) forecasts using the UKCP09 Weather Generator. This will allow for analysis of flow frequency and associated future changes, which cannot be determined from the instrumental record or from lumped parameter model outputs calibrated only to historical catchment behaviour. This work will be based on the existing and functional modelling system described following some further improvements to calibration, particularly regarding simulation of groundwater-dominated catchments.

Water resources of Borrego Valley and vicinity, San Diego County, California; Phase 2, Development of a ground-water flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mitten, H.T.; Lines, G.C.; Berenbrock, Charles; Durbin, T.J.

1988-01-01

Because of the imbalance between recharge and pumpage, groundwater levels declined as much as 100 ft in some areas of Borrego Valley, California during drinking 1945-80. As an aid to analyzing the effects of pumping on the groundwater system, a three-dimensional finite-element groundwater flow model was developed. The model was calibrated for both steady-state (1945) and transient-state (1946-79) conditions. For the steady-state calibration, hydraulic conductivities of the three aquifers were varied within reasonable limits to obtain an acceptable match between measured and computed hydraulic heads. Recharge from streamflow infiltration (4,800 acre-ft/yr) was balanced by computed evapotranspiration (3,900 acre-ft/yr) and computed subsurface outflow from the model area (930 acre-ft/yr). For the transient state calibration, the volumes and distribution of net groundwater pumpage were estimated from land-use data and estimates of consumptive use for irrigated crops. The pumpage was assigned to the appropriate nodes in the model for each of seventeen 2-year time steps representing the period 1946-79. The specific yields of the three aquifers were varied within reasonable limits to obtain an acceptable match between measured and computed hydraulic heads. Groundwater pumpage input to the model was compensated by declines in both the computed evapotranspiration and the amount of groundwater in storage. (USGS)

Numerical investigation of the flow in axial water turbines and marine propellers with scale-resolving simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgut, Mitja; Jošt, Dragica; Nobile, Enrico; Škerlavaj, Aljaž

2015-11-01

The accurate prediction of the performances of axial water turbines and naval propellers is a challenging task, of great practical relevance. In this paper a numerical prediction strategy, based on the combination of a trusted CFD solver and a calibrated mass transfer model, is applied to the turbulent flow in axial turbines and around a model scale naval propeller, under non-cavitating and cavitating conditions. Some selected results for axial water turbines and a marine propeller, and in particular the advantages, in terms of accuracy and fidelity, of ScaleResolving Simulations (SRS), like SAS (Scale Adaptive Simulation) and Zonal-LES (ZLES) compared to standard RANS approaches, are presented. Efficiency prediction for a Kaplan and a bulb turbine was significantly improved by use of the SAS SST model in combination with the ZLES in the draft tube. Size of cavitation cavity and sigma break curve for Kaplan turbine were successfully predicted with SAS model in combination with robust high resolution scheme, while for mass transfer the Zwart model with calibrated constants were used. The results obtained for a marine propeller in non-uniform inflow, under cavitating conditions, compare well with available experimental measurements, and proved that a mass transfer model, previously calibrated for RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes), can be successfully applied also within the SRS approaches.

Imposing constraints on parameter values of a conceptual hydrological model using baseflow response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunn, S. M.

Calibration of conceptual hydrological models is frequently limited by a lack of data about the area that is being studied. The result is that a broad range of parameter values can be identified that will give an equally good calibration to the available observations, usually of stream flow. The use of total stream flow can bias analyses towards interpretation of rapid runoff, whereas water quality issues are more frequently associated with low flow condition. This paper demonstrates how model distinctions between surface an sub-surface runoff can be used to define a likelihood measure based on the sub-surface (or baseflow) response. This helps to provide more information about the model behaviour, constrain the acceptable parameter sets and reduce uncertainty in streamflow prediction. A conceptual model, DIY, is applied to two contrasting catchments in Scotland, the Ythan and the Carron Valley. Parameter ranges and envelopes of prediction are identified using criteria based on total flow efficiency, baseflow efficiency and combined efficiencies. The individual parameter ranges derived using the combined efficiency measures still cover relatively wide bands, but are better constrained for the Carron than the Ythan. This reflects the fact that hydrological behaviour in the Carron is dominated by a much flashier surface response than in the Ythan. Hence, the total flow efficiency is more strongly controlled by surface runoff in the Carron and there is a greater contrast with the baseflow efficiency. Comparisons of the predictions using different efficiency measures for the Ythan also suggest that there is a danger of confusing parameter uncertainties with data and model error, if inadequate likelihood measures are defined.

Analyzing the effect of transmissivity uncertainty on the reliability of a model of the northwestern Sahara aquifer system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zammouri, Mounira; Ribeiro, Luis

2017-05-01

Groundwater flow model of the transboundary Saharan aquifer system is developed in 2003 and used for management and decision-making by Algeria, Tunisia and Libya. In decision-making processes, reliability plays a decisive role. This paper looks into the reliability assessment of the Saharan aquifers model. It aims to detect the shortcomings of the model considered properly calibrated. After presenting the calibration results of the effort modelling in 2003, the uncertainty in the model which arising from the lack of the groundwater level and the transmissivity data is analyzed using kriging technique and stochastic approach. The structural analysis of piezometry in steady state and logarithms of transmissivity were carried out for the Continental Intercalaire (CI) and the Complexe Terminal (CT) aquifers. The available data (piezometry and transmissivity) were compared to the calculated values, using geostatistics approach. Using a stochastic approach, 2500 realizations of a log-normal random transmissivity field of the CI aquifer has been performed to assess the errors of the model output, due to the uncertainty in transmissivity. Two types of bad calibration are shown. In some regions, calibration should be improved using the available data. In others areas, undertaking the model refinement requires gathering new data to enhance the aquifer system knowledge. Stochastic simulations' results showed that the calculated drawdowns in 2050 could be higher than the values predicted by the calibrated model.

Calibration of the NASA GRC 16 In. Mass-Flow Plug

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, David O.; Friedlander, David J.; Saunders, J. David; Frate, Franco C.; Foster, Lancert E.

2012-01-01

The results of an experimental calibration of the NASA Glenn Research Center 16 in. Mass-Flow Plug (MFP) are presented and compared to a previously obtained calibration of a 15 in. Mass-Flow Plug. An ASME low-beta, long-radius nozzle was used as the calibration reference. The discharge coefficient for the ASME nozzle was obtained by numerically simulating the flow through the nozzle from the WIND-US code. The results showed agreement between the 15 in. and 16 in. MFPs for area ratios (MFP to pipe area ratio) greater than 0.6 but deviate at area ratios below this value for reasons that are not fully understood. A general uncertainty analysis was also performed and indicates that large uncertainties in the calibration are present for low MFP area ratios.

Calibration of the NASA Glenn Research Center 16 in. Mass-Flow Plug

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, David O.; Friedlander, David J.; Saunders, J. David; Frate, Franco C.; Foster, Lancert E.

2014-01-01

The results of an experimental calibration of the NASA Glenn Research Center 16 in. Mass-Flow Plug (MFP) are presented and compared to a previously obtained calibration of a 15 in. Mass-Flow Plug. An ASME low-beta, long-radius nozzle was used as the calibration reference. The discharge coefficient for the ASME nozzle was obtained by numerically simulating the flow through the nozzle from the WIND-US code. The results showed agreement between the 15 and 16 in. MFPs for area ratios (MFP to pipe area ratio) greater than 0.6 but deviate at area ratios below this value for reasons that are not fully understood. A general uncertainty analysis was also performed and indicates that large uncertainties in the calibration are present for low MFP area ratios.

Flow behavior in the Wright Brothers Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genn, S.

1984-01-01

It has become increasingly apparent that a reexamination of the flow characteristics in the low speed Wright Brothers Facility (WBF) is of some importance in view of recent improvements in the precision of the data acquisition system. In particular, the existence of local regions of separation, if any, in back portions of the circuit, and possible related unsteadiness, are of interest. Observations from that initial experiment did indicate some unsteady air flow problems in the cross leg, and thereafter the test region (Section A) was calibrated quantitatively. The intent was to learn something about the effect of upstream intermittent behavior flow on the test section flow, as well as to provide an extensive calibration as a standard for the effects induced by future alteration of the tunnel. Distributions of total pressure coefficients were measured first at one cross-section plane of the test section, namely the model station. Data were obtained for several tunnel speeds. The reduced data yielded an unexpected distribution involving larger pressures along the inside wall.

BAT3 Analyzer: Real-Time Data Display and Interpretation Software for the Multifunction Bedrock-Aquifer Transportable Testing Tool (BAT3)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winston, Richard B.; Shapiro, Allen M.

2007-01-01

The BAT3 Analyzer provides real-time display and interpretation of fluid pressure responses and flow rates measured during geochemical sampling, hydraulic testing, or tracer testing conducted with the Multifunction Bedrock-Aquifer Transportable Testing Tool (BAT3) (Shapiro, 2007). Real-time display of the data collected with the Multifunction BAT3 allows the user to ensure that the downhole apparatus is operating properly, and that test procedures can be modified to correct for unanticipated hydraulic responses during testing. The BAT3 Analyzer can apply calibrations to the pressure transducer and flow meter data to display physically meaningful values. Plots of the time-varying data can be formatted for a specified time interval, and either saved to files, or printed. Libraries of calibrations for the pressure transducers and flow meters can be created, updated and reloaded to facilitate the rapid set up of the software to display data collected during testing with the Multifunction BAT3. The BAT3 Analyzer also has the functionality to estimate calibrations for pressure transducers and flow meters using data collected with the Multifunction BAT3 in conjunction with corroborating check measurements. During testing with the Multifunction BAT3, and also after testing has been completed, hydraulic properties of the test interval can be estimated by comparing fluid pressure responses with model results; a variety of hydrogeologic conceptual models of the formation are available for interpreting fluid-withdrawal, fluid-injection, and slug tests.

Improving Simulations of Extreme Flows by Coupling a Physically-based Hydrologic Model with a Machine Learning Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, K.; Islam, A. S.; Khan, M. J. U.; Das, M. K.

2017-12-01

With the large number of hydrologic models presently available along with the global weather and geographic datasets, streamflows of almost any river in the world can be easily modeled. And if a reasonable amount of observed data from that river is available, then simulations of high accuracy can sometimes be performed after calibrating the model parameters against those observed data through inverse modeling. Although such calibrated models can succeed in simulating the general trend or mean of the observed flows very well, more often than not they fail to adequately simulate the extreme flows. This causes difficulty in tasks such as generating reliable projections of future changes in extreme flows due to climate change, which is obviously an important task due to floods and droughts being closely connected to people's lives and livelihoods. We propose an approach where the outputs of a physically-based hydrologic model are used as an input to a machine learning model to try and better simulate the extreme flows. To demonstrate this offline-coupling approach, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as the physically-based hydrologic model, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as the machine learning model and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river system as the study area. The GBM river system, located in South Asia, is the third largest in the world in terms of freshwater generated and forms the largest delta in the world. The flows of the GBM rivers were simulated separately in order to test the performance of this proposed approach in accurately simulating the extreme flows generated by different basins that vary in size, climate, hydrology and anthropogenic intervention on stream networks. Results show that by post-processing the simulated flows of the SWAT models with ANN models, simulations of extreme flows can be significantly improved. The mean absolute errors in simulating annual maximum/minimum daily flows were minimized from 4967 cusecs to 1294 cusecs for Ganges, from 5695 cusecs to 2115 cusecs for Brahmaputra and from 689 cusecs to 321 cusecs for Meghna. Using this approach, simulations of hydrologic variables other than streamflow can also be improved given that a decent amount of observed data for that variable is available.

A multimethod Global Sensitivity Analysis to aid the calibration of geomechanical models via time-lapse seismic data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, D. C.; Angus, D. A.; Garcia, A.; Fisher, Q. J.; Parsons, S.; Kato, J.

2018-03-01

Time-lapse seismic attributes are used extensively in the history matching of production simulator models. However, although proven to contain information regarding production induced stress change, it is typically only loosely (i.e. qualitatively) used to calibrate geomechanical models. In this study we conduct a multimethod Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to assess the feasibility and aid the quantitative calibration of geomechanical models via near-offset time-lapse seismic data. Specifically, the calibration of mechanical properties of the overburden. Via the GSA, we analyse the near-offset overburden seismic traveltimes from over 4000 perturbations of a Finite Element (FE) geomechanical model of a typical High Pressure High Temperature (HPHT) reservoir in the North Sea. We find that, out of an initially large set of material properties, the near-offset overburden traveltimes are primarily affected by Young's modulus and the effective stress (i.e. Biot) coefficient. The unexpected significance of the Biot coefficient highlights the importance of modelling fluid flow and pore pressure outside of the reservoir. The FE model is complex and highly nonlinear. Multiple combinations of model parameters can yield equally possible model realizations. Consequently, numerical calibration via a large number of random model perturbations is unfeasible. However, the significant differences in traveltime results suggest that more sophisticated calibration methods could potentially be feasible for finding numerous suitable solutions. The results of the time-varying GSA demonstrate how acquiring multiple vintages of time-lapse seismic data can be advantageous. However, they also suggest that significant overburden near-offset seismic time-shifts, useful for model calibration, may take up to 3 yrs after the start of production to manifest. Due to the nonlinearity of the model behaviour, similar uncertainty in the reservoir mechanical properties appears to influence overburden traveltime to a much greater extent. Therefore, reservoir properties must be known to a suitable degree of accuracy before the calibration of the overburden can be considered.

The effects of numerical-model complexity and observation type on estimated porosity values

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starn, Jeffrey; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C.; Green, Christopher T.

2015-01-01

The relative merits of model complexity and types of observations employed in model calibration are compared. An existing groundwater flow model coupled with an advective transport simulation of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah (USA), is adapted for advective transport, and effective porosity is adjusted until simulated tritium concentrations match concentrations in samples from wells. Two calibration approaches are used: a “complex” highly parameterized porosity field and a “simple” parsimonious model of porosity distribution. The use of an atmospheric tracer (tritium in this case) and apparent ages (from tritium/helium) in model calibration also are discussed. Of the models tested, the complex model (with tritium concentrations and tritium/helium apparent ages) performs best. Although tritium breakthrough curves simulated by complex and simple models are very generally similar, and there is value in the simple model, the complex model is supported by a more realistic porosity distribution and a greater number of estimable parameters. Culling the best quality data did not lead to better calibration, possibly because of processes and aquifer characteristics that are not simulated. Despite many factors that contribute to shortcomings of both the models and the data, useful information is obtained from all the models evaluated. Although any particular prediction of tritium breakthrough may have large errors, overall, the models mimic observed trends.

Data for calibrating unsteady-flow sediment-transport models, East Fork River, Wyoming, 1975

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mahoney, Holly A.; Andrews, Edmund D.; Emmett, William W.; Leopold, Luna Bergere; Meade, Robert H.; Myrick, Robert M.; Nordin, Carl F.

1976-01-01

In 1975, data to calibrate a one-dimensional unsteady-flow and sediment-transport routing model were collected on a reach of the East Fork River of western Wyoming. The reach, 3.1 miles (5 kilometers) in length, wan immediately upstream from a previously established bedload sampling station. Nineteen channel cross sections were sounded at regular intervals during the spring-runoff period. Four stage recorders provided continuous records of water-surface elevations. Samples of bed material at most of the cross sections were obtained prior to high water. Streamflow and sediment-discharge measurements were collected at four of the sections.The physiography and hydrology of the contributing watershed, the study reach, and the equipment and techniques used in data collection are described briefly. The bulk of the report is a presentation of data for the several-week period of late May to early June 1975, for which concurrent water discharge data, bedload transport and size data, and cross-section depth measurements were collected. In addition, some data collected in 1973 and 1974 and before and after the calibration period in 1975 are included for completeness.

Flow rate calibration to determine cell-derived microparticles and homogeneity of blood components.

PubMed

Noulsri, Egarit; Lerdwana, Surada; Kittisares, Kulvara; Palasuwan, Attakorn; Palasuwan, Duangdao

2017-08-01

Cell-derived microparticles (MPs) are currently of great interest to screening transfusion donors and blood components. However, the current approach to counting MPs is not affordable for routine laboratory use due to its high cost. The current study aimed to investigate the potential use of flow-rate calibration for counting MPs in whole blood, packed red blood cells (PRBCs), and platelet concentrates (PCs). The accuracy of flow-rate calibration was investigated by comparing the platelet counts of an automated counter and a flow-rate calibrator. The concentration of MPs and their origins in whole blood (n=100), PRBCs (n=100), and PCs (n=92) were determined using a FACSCalibur. The MPs' fold-changes were calculated to assess the homogeneity of the blood components. Comparing the platelet counts conducted by automated counting and flow-rate calibration showed an r 2 of 0.6 (y=0.69x+97,620). The CVs of the within-run and between-run variations of flow-rate calibration were 8.2% and 12.1%, respectively. The Bland-Altman plot showed a mean bias of -31,142platelets/μl. MP enumeration revealed both the difference in MP levels and their origins in whole blood, PRBCs, and PCs. Screening the blood components demonstrated high heterogeneity of the MP levels in PCs when compared to whole blood and PRBCs. The results of the present study suggest the accuracy and precision of flow-rate calibration for enumerating MPs. This flow-rate approach is affordable for assessing the homogeneity of MPs in blood components in routine laboratory practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A pre-dam-removal assessment of sediment transport for four dams on the Kalamazoo River between Plainwell and Allegan, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syed, Atiq U.; Bennett, James P.; Rachol, Cynthia M.

2005-01-01

Four dams on the Kalamazoo River between the cities of Plainwell and Allegan, Mich., are in varying states of disrepair. The Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) are considering removing these dams to restore the river channels to pre-dam conditions. This study was initiated to identify sediment characteristics, monitor sediment transport, and predict sediment resuspension and deposition under varying hydraulic conditions. The mathematical model SEDMOD was used to simulate streamflow and sediment transport using three modeling scenarios: (1) sediment transport simulations for 730 days (Jan. 2001 to Dec. 2002), with existing dam structures, (2) sediment transport simulations based on flows from the 1947 flood at the Kalamazoo River with existing dam structures, and (3) sediment transport simulations based on flows from the 1947 flood at the Kalamazoo River with dams removed. Sediment transport simulations based on the 1947 flood hydrograph provide an estimate of sediment transport rates under maximum flow conditions. These scenarios can be used as an assessment of the sediment load that may erode from the study reach at this flow magnitude during a dam failure. The model was calibrated using suspended sediment as a calibration parameter and root mean squared error (RMSE) as an objective function. Analyses of the calibrated model show a slight bias in the model results at flows higher than 75 m3/s; this means that the model-simulated suspended-sediment transport rates are higher than the observed rates; however, the overall calibrated model results show close agreement between simulated and measured values of suspended sediment. Simulation results show that the Kalamazoo River sediment transport mechanism is in a dynamic equilibrium state. Model results during the 730-day simulations indicate significant sediment erosion from the study reach at flow rates higher than 55 m3/s. Similarly, significant sediment deposition occurs during low to average flows (monthly mean flows between 25.49 m3/s and 50.97 m3/s) after a high-flow event. If the flow continues to stay in the low to average range the system shifts towards equilibrium, resulting in a balancing effect between sediment deposition and erosion rates. The 1947 flood-flow simulations show approximately 30,000 m3 more instream sediments erosion for the first 21 days of the dams removed scenario than for the existing-dams scenario, with the same initial conditions for both scenarios. Application of a locally weighted regression smoothing (LOWESS) function to simulation results of the dams removed scenario indicates a steep downtrend with high sediment transport rates during the first 21 days. In comparison, the LOWESS curve for the existing-dams scenario shows a smooth transition of sediment transport rates in response to the change in streamflow. The high erosion rates during the dams-removed scenario are due to the absence of the dams; in contrast, the presence of dams in the existing-dams scenario helps reduce sediment erosion to some extent. The overall results of 60-day simulations for the 1947 flood show no significant difference in total volume of eroded sediment between the two scenarios, because the dams in the study reach have low heads and no control gates. It is important to note that the existing-dams and dams-removed scenarios simulations are run for only 60 days; therefore, the simulations take into account the changes in sediment erosion and deposition rates only during that time period. Over an extended period, more erosion of instream sediments would be expected to occur if the dams are not properly removed than under the existing conditions. On the basis of model simulations, removal of dams would further lower the head in all the channels. This lowering of head could produce higher flow velocities in the study reach, which ultimately would result in accelerated erosion rates.

Study of the structure of turbulent shear flows at supersonic speeds and high Reynolds number

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smits, A. J.; Bogdonoff, S. M.

1984-01-01

A major effort to improve the accuracies of turbulence measurement techniques is described including the development and testing of constant temperature hot-wire anemometers which automatically compensate for frequency responses. Calibration and data acquisition techniques for normal and inclined wires operated in the constant temperature mode, flow geometries, and physical models to explain the observed behavior of flows are discussed, as well as cooperation with computational groups in the calculation of compression corner flows.

Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel.

PubMed

Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C

2015-05-01

Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect.

Numerical modeling of water spray suppression of conveyor belt fires in a large-scale tunnel

PubMed Central

Yuan, Liming; Smith, Alex C.

2015-01-01

Conveyor belt fires in an underground mine pose a serious life threat to miners. Water sprinkler systems are usually used to extinguish underground conveyor belt fires, but because of the complex interaction between conveyor belt fires and mine ventilation airflow, more effective engineering designs are needed for the installation of water sprinkler systems. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to simulate the interaction between the ventilation airflow, the belt flame spread, and the water spray system in a mine entry. The CFD model was calibrated using test results from a large-scale conveyor belt fire suppression experiment. Simulations were conducted using the calibrated CFD model to investigate the effects of sprinkler location, water flow rate, and sprinkler activation temperature on the suppression of conveyor belt fires. The sprinkler location and the activation temperature were found to have a major effect on the suppression of the belt fire, while the water flow rate had a minor effect. PMID:26190905

Calibration of HEC-Ras hydrodynamic model using gauged discharge data and flood inundation maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Rui; Komma, Jürgen

2017-04-01

The estimation of flood is essential for disaster alleviation. Hydrodynamic models are implemented to predict the occurrence and variance of flood in different scales. In practice, the calibration of hydrodynamic models aims to search the best possible parameters for the representation the natural flow resistance. Recent years have seen the calibration of hydrodynamic models being more actual and faster following the advance of earth observation products and computer based optimization techniques. In this study, the Hydrologic Engineering River Analysis System (HEC-Ras) model was set up with high-resolution digital elevation model from Laser scanner for the river Inn in Tyrol, Austria. 10 largest flood events from 19 hourly discharge gauges and flood inundation maps were selected to calibrate the HEC-Ras model. Manning roughness values and lateral inflow factors as parameters were automatically optimized with the Shuffled complex with Principal component analysis (SP-UCI) algorithm developed from the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA). Different objective functions (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, the timing of peak, peak value and Root-mean-square deviation) were used in single or multiple way. It was found that the lateral inflow factor was the most sensitive parameter. SP-UCI algorithm could avoid the local optimal and achieve efficient and effective parameters in the calibration of HEC-Ras model using flood extension images. As results showed, calibration by means of gauged discharge data and flood inundation maps, together with objective function of Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, was very robust to obtain more reliable flood simulation, and also to catch up with the peak value and the timing of peak.

Informing a hydrological model of the Ogooué with multi-mission remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kittel, Cecile; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Nielsen, Karina; Tøttrup, Christian

2017-04-01

Knowledge on hydrological regimes of river basins is crucial for water management. However, data requirements often limit the applicability of hydrological models in basins with scarce in-situ data. Remote sensing provides a unique possibility to acquire information on hydrological variables in these basins. This study explores how multi-mission remote sensing data can inform a hydrological model. The Ogooué basin in Gabon is used as study area. No previous modelling efforts have been conducted for the basin and only historical flow and precipitation observations are available. Publicly available remote sensing observations are used to parametrize, force, calibrate and validate a hydrological model of the Ogooué. The modelling framework used in the study, is a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on the Budyko framework coupled to a Muskingum routing scheme. Precipitation is a crucial driver of the land-surface water balance, therefore two satellite-based rainfall estimates, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) product 3B42 version 7 and Famine Early Warning System - Rainfall Estimate (FEWS-RFE), are compared. The comparison shows good seasonal and spatial agreement between the products; however, TRMM consistently predicts significantly more precipitation: 1726 mm on average per year against 1556 mm for FEWS-RFE. Best modeling results are obtained with the TRMM precipitation forcing. Model calibration combines historical in-situ flow observations and GRACE total water storage observations using the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) mascon solution in a multi-objective approach. The two models are calibrated using flow duration curves and climatology benchmarks to overcome the lack of simultaneity between simulated and observed discharge. The objectives are aggregated into a global objective function, and the models are calibrated using the Shuffled Complex Evolution Algorithm. Water height observations from drifting orbit altimetry missions are extracted along the river line, using a detailed water mask based on Sentinel-1 SAR imagery. 1399 single CryoSat-2 altimetry observations and 48 ICESat observations are acquired. Additionally, water heights have been measured by the repeat-orbit satellite missions Envisat and Jason-2 at 12 virtual stations along the river. The four missions show generally good agreement in terms of mean annual water height amplitudes. The altimetry observations are used to validate the hydrological model of the Ogooué River. By combining hydrological modelling and remote sensing, new information on an otherwise unstudied basin is obtained. The study shows the potential of using remote sensing observations to parameterize, force, calibrate and validate models of poorly gauged river basins. Specifically, the study shows how Sentinel-1 SAR imagery supports the extraction of satellite altimetry data over rivers. The model can be used to assess climate change scenarios, evaluate hydraulic infrastructure development projects and predict the impact of irrigation diversions.

Three-dimensional DFN Model Development and Calibration: A Case Study for Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, H. V.; Parashar, R.; Sund, N. L.; Pohlmann, K.

2017-12-01

Pahute Mesa, located in the north-western region of the Nevada National Security Site, is an area where numerous underground nuclear tests were conducted. The mesa contains several fractured aquifers that can potentially provide high permeability pathways for migration of radionuclides away from testing locations. The BULLION Forced-Gradient Experiment (FGE) conducted on Pahute Mesa injected and pumped solute and colloid tracers from a system of three wells for obtaining site-specific information about the transport of radionuclides in fractured rock aquifers. This study aims to develop reliable three-dimensional discrete fracture network (DFN) models to simulate the BULLION FGE as a means for computing realistic ranges of important parameters describing fractured rock. Multiple conceptual DFN models were developed using dfnWorks, a parallelized computational suite developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory, to simulate flow and conservative particle movement in subsurface fractured rocks downgradient from the BULLION test. The model domain is 100x200x100 m and includes the three tracer-test wells of the BULLION FGE and the Pahute Mesa Lava-flow aquifer. The model scenarios considered differ from each other in terms of boundary conditions and fracture density. For each conceptual model, a number of statistically equivalent fracture network realizations were generated using data from fracture characterization studies. We adopt the covariance matrix adaptation-evolution strategy (CMA-ES) as a global local stochastic derivative-free optimization method to calibrate the DFN models using groundwater levels and tracer breakthrough data obtained from the three wells. Models of fracture apertures based on fracture type and size are proposed and the values of apertures in each model are estimated during model calibration. The ranges of fracture aperture values resulting from this study are expected to enhance understanding of radionuclide transport in fractured rocks and support development of improved large-scale flow and transport models for Pahute Mesa.

PHYSICAL MODELING OF CONTRACTED FLOW.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Jonathan K.

1987-01-01

Experiments on steady flow over uniform grass roughness through centered single-opening contractions were conducted in the Flood Plain Simulation Facility at the U. S. Geological Survey's Gulf Coast Hydroscience Center near Bay St. Louis, Miss. The experimental series was designed to provide data for calibrating and verifying two-dimensional, vertically averaged surface-water flow models used to simulate flow through openings in highway embankments across inundated flood plains. Water-surface elevations, point velocities, and vertical velocity profiles were obtained at selected locations for design discharges ranging from 50 to 210 cfs. Examples of observed water-surface elevations and velocity magnitudes at basin cross-sections are presented.

Continuous hydrologic simulation of runoff for the Middle Fork and South Fork of the Beargrass Creek basin in Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, G. Lynn; Downs, Aimee C.; Grace-Jarrett, Patricia A.

1998-01-01

The Hydrological Simulation Pro-gram-FORTRAN (HSPF) was applied to an urban drainage basin in Jefferson County, Ky to integrate the large amounts of information being collected on water quantity and quality into an analytical framework that could be used as a management and planning tool. Hydrologic response units were developed using geographic data and a K-means analysis to characterize important hydrologic and physical factors in the basin. The Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN Expert System (HSPEXP) was used to calibrate the model parameters for the Middle Fork Beargrass Creek Basin for 3 years (June 1, 1991, to May 31, 1994) of 5-minute streamflow and precipitation time series, and 3 years of hourly pan-evaporation time series. The calibrated model parameters were applied to the South Fork Beargrass Creek Basin for confirmation. The model confirmation results indicated that the model simulated the system within acceptable tolerances. The coefficient of determination and coefficient of model-fit efficiency between simulated and observed daily flows were 0.91 and 0.82, respectively, for model calibration and 0.88 and 0.77, respectively, for model confirmation. The model is most sensitive to estimates of the area of effective impervious land in the basin; the spatial distribution of rain-fall; and the lower-zone evapotranspiration, lower-zone nominal storage, and infiltration-capacity parameters during recession and low-flow periods. The error contribution from these sources varies with season and antecedent conditions.

Application of the precipitation-runoff model in the Warrior coal field, Alabama

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kidd, Robert E.; Bossong, C.R.

1987-01-01

A deterministic precipitation-runoff model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, was applied in two small basins located in the Warrior coal field, Alabama. Each basin has distinct geologic, hydrologic, and land-use characteristics. Bear Creek basin (15.03 square miles) is undisturbed, is underlain almost entirely by consolidated coal-bearing rocks of Pennsylvanian age (Pottsville Formation), and is drained by an intermittent stream. Turkey Creek basin (6.08 square miles) contains a surface coal mine and is underlain by both the Pottsville Formation and unconsolidated clay, sand, and gravel deposits of Cretaceous age (Coker Formation). Aquifers in the Coker Formation sustain flow through extended rainless periods. Preliminary daily and storm calibrations were developed for each basin. Initial parameter and variable values were determined according to techniques recommended in the user's manual for the modeling system and through field reconnaissance. Parameters with meaningful sensitivity were identified and adjusted to match hydrograph shapes and to compute realistic water year budgets. When the developed calibrations were applied to data exclusive of the calibration period as a verification exercise, results were comparable to those for the calibration period. The model calibrations included preliminary parameter values for the various categories of geology and land use in each basin. The parameter values for areas underlain by the Pottsville Formation in the Bear Creek basin were transferred directly to similar areas in the Turkey Creek basin, and these parameter values were held constant throughout the model calibration. Parameter values for all geologic and land-use categories addressed in the two calibrations can probably be used in ungaged basins where similar conditions exist. The parameter transfer worked well, as a good calibration was obtained for Turkey Creek basin.

40 CFR 86.120-94 - Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration; particulate, methanol and formaldehyde measurement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 19 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Gas meter or flow instrumentation... Procedures § 86.120-94 Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration; particulate, methanol and formaldehyde... or flow instrumentation to determine flow through the particulate filters, methanol impingers and...

40 CFR 86.120-94 - Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration; particulate, methanol and formaldehyde measurement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Gas meter or flow instrumentation... Procedures § 86.120-94 Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration; particulate, methanol and formaldehyde... or flow instrumentation to determine flow through the particulate filters, methanol impingers and...

40 CFR 86.120-94 - Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration; particulate, methanol and formaldehyde measurement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 19 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Gas meter or flow instrumentation... Procedures § 86.120-94 Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration; particulate, methanol and formaldehyde... or flow instrumentation to determine flow through the particulate filters, methanol impingers and...

40 CFR 86.120-94 - Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration; particulate, methanol and formaldehyde measurement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 19 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Gas meter or flow instrumentation... Procedures § 86.120-94 Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration; particulate, methanol and formaldehyde... or flow instrumentation to determine flow through the particulate filters, methanol impingers and...

40 CFR 86.120-94 - Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration; particulate, methanol and formaldehyde measurement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Gas meter or flow instrumentation... Procedures § 86.120-94 Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration; particulate, methanol and formaldehyde... or flow instrumentation to determine flow through the particulate filters, methanol impingers and...

Use of 3H/3He Ages to evaluate and improve groundwater flow models in a complex buried-valley aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sheets, Rodney A.; Bair, E. Scott; Rowe, Gary L.

1998-01-01

Combined use of the tritium/helium 3 (3H/3He) dating technique and particle-tracking analysis can improve flow-model calibration. As shown at two sites in the Great Miami buried-valley aquifer in southwestern Ohio, the combined use of 3H/3He age dating and particle tracking led to a lower mean absolute error between measured heads and simulated heads than in the original calibrated models and/or between simulated travel times and 3H/3He ages. Apparent groundwater ages were obtained for water samples collected from 44 wells at two locations where previously constructed finite difference models of groundwater flow were available (Mound Plant and Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB)). The two-layer Mound Plant model covers 11 km2 within the buried-valley aquifer. The WPAFB model has three layers and covers 262 km2 within the buried-valley aquifer and adjacent bedrock uplands. Sampled wells were chosen along flow paths determined from potentiometric maps or particle-tracking analyses. Water samples were collected at various depths within the aquifer. In the Mound Plant area, samples used for comparison of 3H/3He ages with simulated travel times were from wells completed in the uppermost model layer. Simulated travel times agreed well with 3H/3He ages. The mean absolute error (MAE) was 3.5 years. Agreement in ages at WPAFB decreased with increasing depth in the system. The MAEs were 1.63, 17.2, and 255 years for model layers 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Discrepancies between the simulated travel times and 3H/3He ages were assumed to be due to improper conceptualization or incorrect parameterization of the flow models. Selected conceptual and parameter modifications to the models resulted in improved agreement between 3H/3He ages and simulated travel times and between measured and simulated heads and flows.

Predicting the Rate of River Bank Erosion Caused by Large Wood Log

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, N.; Rutherfurd, I.; Ghisalberti, M.

2016-12-01

When a single tree falls into a river channel, flow is deflected and accelerated between the tree roots and the bank face, increasing shear stress and scouring the bank. The scallop shaped erosion increases the diversity of the channel morphology, but also causes concern for adjacent landholders. Concern about increased bank erosion is one of the main reasons for large wood to still be removed from channels in SE Australia. Further, the hydraulic effect of many logs in the channel can reduce overall bank erosion rates. Although both phenomena have been described before, this research develops a hydraulic model that estimates their magnitude, and tests and calibrates this model with flume and field measurements, with logs with various configurations and sizes. Specifically, the model estimates the change in excess shear stress on the bank associated . The model addresses the effect of the log angle, distance from bank, and log size and flow condition by solving the mass continuity and energy conservation between the cross section at the approaching flow and contracted flow. Then, we evaluate our model against flume experiment preformed with semi-realistic log models to represent logs in different sizes and decay stages by comparing the measured and simulated velocity increase in the gap between the log and the bank. The log angle, distance from bank, and flow condition are systemically varied for each log model during the experiment. Final, the calibrated model is compared with the field data collected in anabranching channels of Murray River in SE Australia where there are abundant instream logs and regulated and consistent high flow for irrigation. Preliminary results suggest that a log can significantly increase the shear stress on the bank, especially when it positions perpendicular to the flow. The shear stress increases with the log angle in a rising curve (The log angle is the angle between log trunk and flow direction. 0o means log is parallel to flow with canopy pointing downstream). However, the shear stress shows insignificant changes as the log is being moved close to the bank.

An efective fractal-tree closure model for simulating blood flow in large arterial networks

PubMed Central

Perdikaris, Paris; Grinberg, Leopold; Karniadakis, George Em.

2014-01-01

The aim of the present work is to address the closure problem for hemodynamic simulations by developing a exible and effective model that accurately distributes flow in the downstream vasculature and can stably provide a physiological pressure out flow boundary condition. To achieve this goal, we model blood flow in the sub-pixel vasculature by using a non-linear 1D model in self-similar networks of compliant arteries that mimic the structure and hierarchy of vessels in the meso-vascular regime (radii 500 μm – 10 μm). We introduce a variable vessel length-to-radius ratio for small arteries and arterioles, while also addressing non-Newtonian blood rheology and arterial wall viscoelasticity effects in small arteries and arterioles. This methodology aims to overcome substantial cut-off radius sensitivities, typically arising in structured tree and linearized impedance models. The proposed model is not sensitive to out flow boundary conditions applied at the end points of the fractal network, and thus does not require calibration of resistance/capacitance parameters typically required for out flow conditions. The proposed model convergences to a periodic state in two cardiac cycles even when started from zero-flow initial conditions. The resulting fractal-trees typically consist of thousands to millions of arteries, posing the need for efficient parallel algorithms. To this end, we have scaled up a Discontinuous Galerkin solver that utilizes the MPI/OpenMP hybrid programming paradigm to thousands of computer cores, and can simulate blood flow in networks of millions of arterial segments at the rate of one cycle per 5 minutes. The proposed model has been extensively tested on a large and complex cranial network with 50 parent, patient-specific arteries and 21 outlets to which fractal trees where attached, resulting to a network of up to 4,392,484 vessels in total, and a detailed network of the arm with 276 parent arteries and 103 outlets (a total of 702,188 vessels after attaching the fractal trees), returning physiological flow and pressure wave predictions without requiring any parameter estimation or calibration procedures. We present a novel methodology to overcome substantial cut-off radius sensitivities PMID:25510364

Economic development, flow of funds, and the equilibrium interaction of financial frictions.

PubMed

Moll, Benjamin; Townsend, Robert M; Zhorin, Victor

2017-06-13

We use a variety of different datasets from Thailand to study not only the extremes of micro and macro variables but also within-country flow of funds and labor migration. We develop a general equilibrium model that encompasses regional variation in the type of financial friction and calibrate it to measured variation in regional aggregates. The model predicts substantial capital and labor flows from rural to urban areas even though these differ only in the underlying financial regime. Predictions for micro variables not used directly provide a model validation. Finally, we estimate the impact of a policy of counterfactual, regional isolationism.

Flow field measurements around a Mars lander model using hot film anemometers under simulated Mars surface conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greene, G. C.; Keafer, L. S., Jr.; Marple, C. G.; Foughner, J. T., Jr.

1972-01-01

Results are presented from a wind-tunnel investigation of the flow field around a 0.45-scale model of a Mars lander. The tests were conducted in air at values of Reynolds number equivalent to those anticipated on Mars. The effects of Reynolds number equivalent to those anticipated on Mars. The effects of Reynolds number, model orientation with respect to the airstream, and the position of a dish-type antenna on the flow field were determined. An appendix is included which describes the calibration and operational characteristics of hot-film anemometers under simulated Mars surface conditions.

Economic development, flow of funds, and the equilibrium interaction of financial frictions

PubMed Central

Moll, Benjamin; Townsend, Robert M.; Zhorin, Victor

2017-01-01

We use a variety of different datasets from Thailand to study not only the extremes of micro and macro variables but also within-country flow of funds and labor migration. We develop a general equilibrium model that encompasses regional variation in the type of financial friction and calibrate it to measured variation in regional aggregates. The model predicts substantial capital and labor flows from rural to urban areas even though these differ only in the underlying financial regime. Predictions for micro variables not used directly provide a model validation. Finally, we estimate the impact of a policy of counterfactual, regional isolationism. PMID:28592655

Hydrogeology and simulation of ground-water flow and land-surface subsidence in the northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kasmarek, Mark C.; Robinson, James L.

2004-01-01

As a part of the Texas Water Development Board Ground- Water Availability Modeling program, the U.S. Geological Survey developed and tested a numerical finite-difference (MODFLOW) model to simulate ground-water flow and land-surface subsidence in the northern part of the Gulf Coast aquifer system in Texas from predevelopment (before 1891) through 2000. The model is intended to be a tool that water-resource managers can use to address future ground-water-availability issues.From land surface downward, the Chicot aquifer, the Evangeline aquifer, the Burkeville confining unit, the Jasper aquifer, and the Catahoula confining unit are the hydrogeologic units of the Gulf Coast aquifer system. Withdrawals of large quantities of ground water have resulted in potentiometric surface (head) declines in the Chicot, Evangeline, and Jasper aquifers and land-surface subsidence (primarily in the Houston area) from depressurization and compaction of clay layers interbedded in the aquifer sediments. In a generalized conceptual model of the aquifer system, water enters the ground-waterflow system in topographically high outcrops of the hydrogeologic units in the northwestern part of the approximately 25,000-square-mile model area. Water that does not discharge to streams flows to intermediate and deep zones of the system southeastward of the outcrop areas where it is discharged by wells and by upward leakage in topographically low areas near the coast. The uppermost parts of the aquifer system, which include outcrop areas, are under water-table conditions. As depth increases in the aquifer system and as interbedded sand and clay accumulate, water-table conditions evolve into confined conditions.The model comprises four layers, one for each of the hydrogeologic units of the aquifer system except the Catahoula confining unit, the assumed no-flow base of the system. Each layer consists of 137 rows and 245 columns of uniformly spaced grid blocks, each block representing 1 square mile. Lateral no-flow boundaries were located on the basis of outcrop extent (northwestern), major streams (southwestern, northeastern), and downdip limit of freshwater (southeastern). The MODFLOW general-head boundary package was used to simulate recharge and discharge in the outcrops of the hydrogeologic units. Simulation of land-surface subsidence (actually, compaction of clays) and release of water from storage in the clays of the Chicot and Evangeline aquifers was accomplished using the Interbed-Storage Package designed for use with the MODFLOW model. The model was calibrated by trial-anderror adjustment of selected model input data in a series of transient simulations until the model output (potentiometric surfaces, land-surface subsidence, and selected water-budget components) reasonably reproduced field measured (or estimated) aquifer responses.Model calibration comprised four elements: The first was qualitative comparison of simulated and measured heads in the aquifers for 1977 and 2000; and quantitative comparison by computation and areal distribution of the root-mean-square error between simulated and measured heads. The second calibration element was comparison of simulated and measured hydrographs from wells in the aquifers in a number of counties throughout the modeled area. The third calibration element was comparison of simulated water-budget componentsprimarily recharge and dischargeto estimates of physically reasonable ranges of actual water-budget components. The fourth calibration element was comparison of simulated land-surface subsidence from predevelopment to 2000 to measured land surface subsidence from 1906 through 1995.

Automated Mounting Bias Calibration for Airborne LIDAR System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Jiang, W.; Jiang, S.

2012-07-01

Mounting bias is the major error source of Airborne LIDAR system. In this paper, an automated calibration method for estimating LIDAR system mounting parameters is introduced. LIDAR direct geo-referencing model is used to calculate systematic errors. Due to LIDAR footprints discretely sampled, the real corresponding laser points are hardly existence among different strips. The traditional corresponding point methodology does not seem to apply to LIDAR strip registration. We proposed a Virtual Corresponding Point Model to resolve the corresponding problem among discrete laser points. Each VCPM contains a corresponding point and three real laser footprints. Two rules are defined to calculate tie point coordinate from real laser footprints. The Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) is used to extract corresponding points in LIDAR strips, and the automatic flow of LIDAR system calibration based on VCPM is detailed described. The practical examples illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed calibration method.

Calibration Uncertainties in the Droplet Measurement Technologies Cloud Condensation Nuclei Counter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibert, Kurt James

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) serve as the nucleation sites for the condensation of water vapor in Earth's atmosphere and are important for their effect on climate and weather. The influence of CCN on cloud radiative properties (aerosol indirect effect) is the most uncertain of quantified radiative forcing changes that have occurred since pre-industrial times. CCN influence the weather because intrinsic and extrinsic aerosol properties affect cloud formation and precipitation development. To quantify these effects, it is necessary to accurately measure CCN, which requires accurate calibrations using a consistent methodology. Furthermore, the calibration uncertainties are required to compare measurements from different field projects. CCN uncertainties also aid the integration of CCN measurements with atmospheric models. The commercially available Droplet Measurement Technologies (DMT) CCN Counter is used by many research groups, so it is important to quantify its calibration uncertainty. Uncertainties in the calibration of the DMT CCN counter exist in the flow rate and supersaturation values. The concentration depends on the accuracy of the flow rate calibration, which does not have a large (4.3 %) uncertainty. The supersaturation depends on chamber pressure, temperature, and flow rate. The supersaturation calibration is a complex process since the chamber's supersaturation must be inferred from a temperature difference measurement. Additionally, calibration errors can result from the Kohler theory assumptions, fitting methods utilized, the influence of multiply-charged particles, and calibration points used. In order to determine the calibration uncertainties and the pressure dependence of the supersaturation calibration, three calibrations are done at each pressure level: 700, 840, and 980 hPa. Typically 700 hPa is the pressure used for aircraft measurements in the boundary layer, 840 hPa is the calibration pressure at DMT in Boulder, CO, and 980 hPa is the average surface pressure at Grand Forks, ND. The supersaturation calibration uncertainty is 2.3, 3.1, and 4.4 % for calibrations done at 700, 840, and 980 hPa respectively. The supersaturation calibration change with pressure is on average 0.047 % supersaturation per 100 hPa. The supersaturation calibrations done at UND are 42-45 % lower than supersaturation calibrations done at DMT approximately 1 year previously. Performance checks confirmed that all major leaks developed during shipping were fixed before conducting the supersaturation calibrations. Multiply-charged particles passing through the Electrostatic Classifier may have influenced DMT's activation curves, which is likely part of the supersaturation calibration difference. Furthermore, the fitting method used to calculate the activation size and the limited calibration points are likely significant sources of error in DMT's supersaturation calibration. While the DMT CCN counter's calibration uncertainties are relatively small, and the pressure dependence is easily accounted for, the calibration methodology used by different groups can be very important. The insights gained from the careful calibration of the DMT CCN counter indicate that calibration of scientific instruments using complex methodology is not trivial.

Hydrologic calibration of paired watersheds using a MOSUM approach

DOE PAGES

Ssegane, H.; Amatya, D. M.; Muwamba, A.; ...

2015-01-09

Paired watershed studies have historically been used to quantify hydrologic effects of land use and management practices by concurrently monitoring two neighboring watersheds (a control and a treatment) during the calibration (pre-treatment) and post-treatment periods. This study characterizes seasonal water table and flow response to rainfall during the calibration period and tests a change detection technique of moving sums of recursive residuals (MOSUM) to select calibration periods for each control-treatment watershed pair when the regression coefficients for daily water table elevation (WTE) were most stable to reduce regression model uncertainty. The control and treatment watersheds included 1–3 year intensively managedmore » loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) with natural understory, same age loblolly pine intercropped with switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum), 14–15 year thinned loblolly pine with natural understory (control), and switchgrass only. Although monitoring during the calibration period spanned 2009 to 2012, silvicultural operational practices that occurred during this period such as harvesting of existing stand and site preparation for pine and switchgrass establishment may have acted as external factors, potentially shifting hydrologic calibration relationships between control and treatment watersheds. Results indicated that MOSUM was able to detect significant changes in regression parameters for WTE due to silvicultural operations. This approach also minimized uncertainty of calibration relationships which could otherwise mask marginal treatment effects. All calibration relationships developed using this MOSUM method were quantifiable, strong, and consistent with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) greater than 0.97 for WTE and NSE greater than 0.92 for daily flow, indicating its applicability for choosing calibration periods of paired watershed studies.« less

Looking beyond general metrics for model evaluation - lessons from an international model intercomparison study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouaziz, Laurène; de Boer-Euser, Tanja; Brauer, Claudia; Drogue, Gilles; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Grelier, Benjamin; de Niel, Jan; Nossent, Jiri; Pereira, Fernando; Savenije, Hubert; Thirel, Guillaume; Willems, Patrick

2016-04-01

International collaboration between institutes and universities is a promising way to reach consensus on hydrological model development. Education, experience and expert knowledge of the hydrological community have resulted in the development of a great variety of model concepts, calibration methods and analysis techniques. Although comparison studies are very valuable for international cooperation, they do often not lead to very clear new insights regarding the relevance of the modelled processes. We hypothesise that this is partly caused by model complexity and the used comparison methods, which focus on a good overall performance instead of focusing on specific events. We propose an approach that focuses on the evaluation of specific events. Eight international research groups calibrated their model for the Ourthe catchment in Belgium (1607 km2) and carried out a validation in time for the Ourthe (i.e. on two different periods, one of them on a blind mode for the modellers) and a validation in space for nested and neighbouring catchments of the Meuse in a completely blind mode. For each model, the same protocol was followed and an ensemble of best performing parameter sets was selected. Signatures were first used to assess model performances in the different catchments during validation. Comparison of the models was then followed by evaluation of selected events, which include: low flows, high flows and the transition from low to high flows. While the models show rather similar performances based on general metrics (i.e. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency), clear differences can be observed for specific events. While most models are able to simulate high flows well, large differences are observed during low flows and in the ability to capture the first peaks after drier months. The transferability of model parameters to neighbouring and nested catchments is assessed as an additional measure in the model evaluation. This suggested approach helps to select, among competing model alternatives, the most suitable model for a specific purpose.

Modelling water flow under glaciers and ice sheets

PubMed Central

Flowers, Gwenn E.

2015-01-01

Recent observations of dynamic water systems beneath the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have sparked renewed interest in modelling subglacial drainage. The foundations of today's models were laid decades ago, inspired by measurements from mountain glaciers, discovery of the modern ice streams and the study of landscapes evacuated by former ice sheets. Models have progressed from strict adherence to the principles of groundwater flow, to the incorporation of flow ‘elements’ specific to the subglacial environment, to sophisticated two-dimensional representations of interacting distributed and channelized drainage. Although presently in a state of rapid development, subglacial drainage models, when coupled to models of ice flow, are now able to reproduce many of the canonical phenomena that characterize this coupled system. Model calibration remains generally out of reach, whereas widespread application of these models to large problems and real geometries awaits the next level of development. PMID:27547082

Modelling water flow under glaciers and ice sheets.

PubMed

Flowers, Gwenn E

2015-04-08

Recent observations of dynamic water systems beneath the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have sparked renewed interest in modelling subglacial drainage. The foundations of today's models were laid decades ago, inspired by measurements from mountain glaciers, discovery of the modern ice streams and the study of landscapes evacuated by former ice sheets. Models have progressed from strict adherence to the principles of groundwater flow, to the incorporation of flow 'elements' specific to the subglacial environment, to sophisticated two-dimensional representations of interacting distributed and channelized drainage. Although presently in a state of rapid development, subglacial drainage models, when coupled to models of ice flow, are now able to reproduce many of the canonical phenomena that characterize this coupled system. Model calibration remains generally out of reach, whereas widespread application of these models to large problems and real geometries awaits the next level of development.

Calibration of 2D Hydraulic Inundation Models with SAR Imagery in the Floodplain Region of the Lower Tagus River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pestana, Rita; Matias, Magda; Canelas, Ricardo; Roque, Dora; Araujo, Amelia; Van Zeller, Emilia; Trigo-Teixeira, Antonio; Ferreira, Rui; Oliveira, Rodrigo; Heleno, Sandra; Falcão, Ana Paula; Gonçalves, Alexandre B.

2014-05-01

Floods account for 40% of all natural hazards worldwide and were responsible for the loss of about 100 thousand human lives and affected more than 1,4 million people in the last decade of the 20th century alone. Floods have been the deadliest natural hazard in Portugal in the last 100 years. In terms of inundated area, the largest floods in Portugal occur in the Lower Tagus (LT) River. On average, the river overflows every 2.5 years, at times blocking roads and causing important agricultural damages. The economical relevance of the area and the high frequency of the relevant flood events make the LT floodplain a good pilot region to conduct a data-driven, systematic calibration work of flood hydraulic models. This paper focus on the calibration of 2D-horizontal flood simulation models for the floods of 1997, 2001 and 2006 on a 70-km stretch of the LT River, between Tramagal and Omnias, using the software Tuflow. This computational engine provides 2D solutions based on the Stelling finite-difference, alternating direction implicit (ADI) scheme that solves the full 2D free surface shallow-water flow equations and allowed the introduction of structures that constrain water flow. The models were based on a digital terrain model (DTM) acquired in 2008 by radar techniques (5m of spatial resolution) and on in situ measurements of water elevation in Omnias (downstream boundary condition) and discharge in Tramagal and Zezere (upstream boundary conditions). Due to the relevancy of several dykes on this stretch of the LT River, non-existent on the available DTM, five of them were introduced in the models. All models have the same boundaries and were simulated using steady-state flow initial conditions. The resolution of the 2D grid mesh was 30m. Land cover data for the study area was retrieved from Corine Land Cover 2006 (CO-ordination of INformation on the Environment) with spatial resolution of 100m, and combined with estimated manning coefficients obtained in literature for the different land cover classes. Flood extent maps, derived from satellite-born Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), namely ERS SAR and ENVISAT ASAR imagery, provided the spatially distributed data needed for the calibration of the hydraulic models for the several floods. The flood extent maps obtained for each simulation were then compared with the flood extent maps derived from SAR imagery for each flood and the roughness coefficients changed accordingly. The models were also calibrated in terms of the stage at the gauging station Almourol, located 12km downriver from Tramagal. The combination of the calibration results for the several past floods provided 100 meters resolution Manning coefficient maps of the study area. An application of the obtained calibrated Manning coefficient maps was made for the largest flood of the 20th century (February 1979), for which no SAR imagery was available. In this case validation of the model was made in terms of the stage at the gauging station Almourol and at flood stage marks distributed throughout the floodplain.

On-site flow calibration of turbine meters for natural gas custody transfer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ting, V.C.; Schexnayder, L.L.; Conkling, D.B.

1991-05-01

This paper presents the design criteria, performance characteristics, and calibration procedures relating to a turbine-meter flow-calibration facility used in the high-volume custody transfer of natural gas. The facility, located in Venice, LA, is owned and operated by Chevron U.S.A. Inc. and is used to meter sales volumes of up to 500 MMscf/D (14.16 {times} 10 std m{sup 3}/d) at a nominal operating pressure of 1,000 psig (6.9 MPa). The system includes three 12-in. (30.48 cm) turbine meters used for sales-volume measurement, a bank of sonic nozzles, and a master turbine meter connected in series with the sales meters. The sonicmore » nozzles and master meter serve as flow-proving and -calibration devices. sonic nozzles are recommended by the turbine-meter standard for meter calibration. This paper examines the performance of on-site calibration of gas turbine meters. The Venice facility successfully demonstrated that on-site calibration of gas-metering devices can ensure accurate gas-flow measurement under field conditions.« less

Automatic Calibration of Global Flow Routing Model Parameters in the Amazon Basin Using Virtual SWOT Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouffe, Melodie; Getirana, Augusto; Ricci, Sophie; Lion, Christine; Biancamaria, Sylvian; Boone, Aaron; Mognard, Nelly; Rogel, Philippe

2013-09-01

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) wide swath altimetry mission will provide measurements of water surface elevations (WSE) at a global scale. The aim of this study is to investigate the potential of these satellite data for the calibration of the hydrological model HyMAP, over the Amazon river basin. Since SWOT has not yet been launched, synthetical observations are used to calibrate the river bed depth and width, the Manning coefficient and the baseflow concentration time. The calibration process stands in the minimization of a cost function using an evolutionnary, global and multi-objective algorithm that describes the difference between the simulated and the observed WSE. We found that the calibration procedure is able to retrieve an optimal set of parameters such that it brings the simulated WSE closer to the observation. Still with a global calibration procedure where a uniform correction is applied, the improvement is limited to a mean correction over the catchment and the simulation period. We conclude that in order to benefit from the high resolution and complete coverage of the SWOT mission, the calibration process should be achieved sequentially in time over sub-domains as observations become available.

Special features of the dayCent modeling package and additional procedures for parameterization, calibration, validation, and applications

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

DayCent (Daily Century) is a biogeochemical model of intermediate complexity used to simulate flows of carbon and nutrients for crop, grassland, forest, and savanna ecosystems. Required model inputs are: soil texture, current and historical land use, vegetation cover, and daily maximum/minimum tempe...

Ground-water flow in the shallow aquifer system at the Naval Weapons Station Yorktown, Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Barry S.

2001-01-01

The Environmental Directorate of the Naval Weapons Station Yorktown, Virginia, is concerned about possible contamination of ground water at the Station. Ground water at the Station flows through a shallow system of layered aquifers and leaky confining units. The units of the shallow aquifer system are the Columbia aquifer, the Cornwallis Cave confining unit, the Cornwallis Cave aquifer, the Yorktown confining unit, and the Yorktown-Eastover aquifer. The Eastover-Calvert confining unit separates the shallow aquifer system from deeper confined aquifers beneath the Station. A three-dimensional, finite-difference, ground-water flow model was used to simulate steady-state ground-water flow of the shallow aquifer system in and around the Station. The model simulated ground-water flow from the peninsular drainage divide that runs across the Lackey Plain near the southern end of the Station north to King Creek and the York River and south to Skiffes Creek and the James River. The model was calibrated by minimizing the root mean square error between 4 7 measured and corresponding simulated water levels. The calibrated model was used to determine the ground-water budget and general directions of ground-water flow. A particle-tracking routine was used with the calibrated model to estimate groundwater flow paths, flow rates, and traveltimes from selected sites at the Station. Simulated ground-water flow velocities of the Station-area model were small beneath the interstream areas of the Lackey Plain and Croaker Flat, but increased outward toward the streams and rivers where the hydraulic gradients are larger. If contaminants from the land surface entered the water table at or near the interstream areas of the Station, where hydraulic gradients are smaller, they would migrate more slowly than if they entered closer to the streams or the shores of the rivers where gradients commonly are larger. The ground-water flow simulations indicate that some ground water leaks downward from the water table to the Yorktown confining unit and, where the confining unit is absent, to the Yorktown-Eastover aquifer. The velocities of advective-driven contaminants would decrease considerably when entering the Yorktown confining unit because the hydraulic conductivity of the confining unit is small compared to that of the aquifers. Any contaminants that moved with advective ground-water flow near the groundwater divide of the Lackey Plain would move relatively slowly because the hydraulic gradients are small there. The direction in which the contaminants would move, however, would be determined by precisely where the contaminants entered the water table. The model was not designed to accurately simulate ground-water flow paths through local karst features. Beneath Croaker Flat, ground water flows downward through the Columbia aquifer and the Yorktown confining unit into the Yorktown-Eastover aquifer. Analyses of the movement of simulated particles from two adjacent sites at Croaker Flat indicated that ground-water flow paths were similar at first but diverged and discharged to different tributaries of Indian Field Creek or to the York River. These simulations indicate that complex and possibly divergent flow paths and traveltimes are possible at the Station. Although the Station-area model is not detailed enough to simulate ground-water flow at the scales commonly used to track and remediate contaminants at specific sites, general concepts about possible contaminant migration at the Station can be inferred from the simulations.

Modeling of Water Flow Processes in the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere System: The Soil-Tree-Atmosphere Continuum Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massoud, E. C.; Vrugt, J. A.

2015-12-01

Trees and forests play a key role in controlling the water and energy balance at the land-air surface. This study reports on the calibration of an integrated soil-tree-atmosphere continuum (STAC) model using Bayesian inference with the DREAM algorithm and temporal observations of soil moisture content, matric head, sap flux, and leaf water potential from the King's River Experimental Watershed (KREW) in the southern Sierra Nevada mountain range in California. Water flow through the coupled system is described using the Richards' equation with both the soil and tree modeled as a porous medium with nonlinear soil and tree water relationships. Most of the model parameters appear to be reasonably well defined by calibration against the observed data. The posterior mean simulation reproduces the observed soil and tree data quite accurately, but a systematic mismatch is observed between early afternoon measured and simulated sap fluxes. We will show how this points to a structural error in the STAC-model and suggest and test an alternative hypothesis for root water uptake that alleviates this problem.

Using SCADA Data, Field Studies, and Real-Time Modeling to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA has been providing technical assistance to the City of Flint and the State of Michigan in response to the drinking water lead contamination incident. Responders quickly recognized the need for a water distribution system hydraulic model to provide insight on flow patterns and water quality as well as to evaluate changes being made to the system operation to enhance corrosion control and improve chlorine residuals. EPA partnered with the City of Flint and the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality to update and calibrate an existing hydraulic model. The City provided SCADA data, GIS data, customer billing data, valve status data, design diagrams, and information on operations. Team members visited all facilities and updated pump and valve types, sizes, settings, elevations, and pump discharge curves. Several technologies were used to support this work including the EPANET-RTX based Polaris real-time modeling software, WaterGEMS, ArcGIS, EPANET, and RTX:LINK. Field studies were conducted to collect pressure and flow data from more than 25 locations throughout the distribution system. An assessment of the model performance compared model predictions for flow, pressure, and tank levels to SCADA and field data, resulting in error measurements for each data stream over the time period analyzed. Now, the calibrated model can be used with a known confidence in its performance to evaluate hydraulic and water quality problems, and the model can be easily

Tracer-aided modelling to explore non-linearities in flow paths, hydrological connectivity and faecal contamination risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neill, A. J.; Tetzlaff, D.; Strachan, N.; Soulsby, C.

2016-12-01

The non-linearities of runoff generation processes are strongly influenced by the connectivity of hillslopes and channel networks, particularly where overland flow is an important runoff mechanism. Despite major advances in understanding hydrological connectivity and runoff generation, the role of connectivity in the contamination of potable water supplies by faecal pathogens from grazing animals remains unclear. This is a water quality issue with serious implications for public health. Here, we sought to understand the dynamics of hydrological connectivity, flow paths and linked faecal pathogen transport in a montane catchment in Scotland with high deer populations. We firstly calibrated, within an uncertainty framework, a parsimonious tracer-aided hydrological model to daily discharge and stream isotope data. The model, developed on the basis of past empirical and tracer studies, conceptualises the catchment as three interacting hydrological source areas (dynamic saturation zone, dynamic hillslope, and groundwater) for which water fluxes, water ages and storage-based connectivity can be simulated. We next coupled several faecal indicator organism (FIO; a common indicator of faecal pathogen contamination) behaviour and transport schemes to the robust hydrological models. A further calibration was then undertaken based on the ability of each coupled model to simulate daily FIO concentrations. This gave us a final set of coupled behavioural models from which we explored how in-stream FIO dynamics could be related to the changing connectivity between the three hydrological source areas, flow paths, water ages and consequent dominant runoff generation processes. We found that high levels of FIOs were transient and episodic, and strongly correlated with periods of high connectivity through overland flow. This non-linearity in connectivity and FIO flux was successfully captured within our dynamic, tracer-aided hydrological model.

Simulation of streamflow and water quality in the Brandywine Creek subbasin of the Christina River basin, Pennsylvania and Delaware, 1994-98

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senior, Lisa A.; Koerkle, Edward H.

2003-01-01

The Christina River Basin drains 565 mi2 (square miles) in Pennsylvania and Delaware. Water from the basin is used for recreation, drinking-water supply, and to support aquatic life. The Christina River Basin includes the major subbasins of Brandywine Creek, Red Clay Creek, White Clay Creek, and Christina River. The Brandywine Creek is the largest of the subbasins and drains an area of 327 mi2. Water quality in some parts of the Christina River Basin is impaired and does not support designated uses of the streams. A multi-agency water-quality management strategy included a modeling component to evaluate the effects of point and nonpoint-source contributions of nutrients and suspended sediment on streamwater quality. To assist in nonpoint-source evaluation, four independent models, one for each of the four main subbasins of the Christina River Basin, were developed and calibrated using the model code Hydrological Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF). Water-quality data for model calibration were collected in each of the four main subbasins and in small subbasins predominantly covered by one land use following a nonpoint-source monitoring plan. Under this plan, stormflow and base-flow samples were collected during 1998 at six sites in the Brandywine Creek subbasin and five sites in the other subbasins.The HSPF model for the Brandywine Creek Basin simulates streamflow, suspended sediment, and the nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In addition, the model simulates water temperature, dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, and plankton as secondary objectives needed to support the sediment and nutrient simulations. For the model, the basin was subdivided into 35 reaches draining areas that ranged from 0.6 to 18 mi2. Three of the reaches contain regulated reservoir. Eleven different pervious land uses and two impervious land uses were selected for simulation. Land-use areas were determined from 1995 land-use data. The predominant land uses in the basin are forested, agricultural, residential, and urban. The hydrologic component of the model was run at an hourly time step and calibrated using streamflow data for eight U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream-flow-measurement stations for the period of January 1, 1994, through October 29, 1998. Daily precipitation data for three National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gages and hourly data for one NOAA gage were used for model input. The difference between observed and simulated streamflow volume ranged from -2.7 to 3.9 percent for the nearly 5-year period at the eight calibration sites. Annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow generally were greater than the overall error. For example, at a site near the bottom of the basin (drainage area of 237 mi2), annual differences between observed and simulated streamflow ranged from -14.0 to 18.8 percent and the overall error for the 5-year period was 1.0 percent. Calibration errors for 36 storm periods at the eight calibration sites for total volume, low-flow-recession rate, 50-percent lowest flows, 10-percent highest flows, and storm peaks were within the recommended criteria of 20 percent or less. Much of the error in simulating storm events on an hourly time step can be attributed to uncertainty in the rainfall data.The water-quality component of the model was calibrated using monitoring data collected at six USGS streamflow-measurement stations with variable water quality monitoring periods ending October 1998. Because of availability, monitoring data for suspended solids concentrations were used as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations, although suspended-solids data may underestimate suspended sediment and affect apparent accuracy of the suspended-sediment simulation. Comparison of observed to simulated loads for two to six individual storms in 1998 at each of the six monitoring sites indicate that simulation error is commonly as large as an order of magnitude for suspended sediment and nutrients. The simulation error tends to be smaller for dissolved nutrients than for particulate nutrients. Errors of 40 percent or less for monthly or annual values indicate a fair to good water-quality calibration according to recommended criteria, with much larger errors possible for individual events. Assessment of the water-quality calibration under stormflow conditions is limited by the relatively small amount of available water-quality data in the basin. Duration curves for simulated and reported sediment concentration at Brandywine Creek at Wilmington, Del., are similar, indicating model performance is better when evaluated over longer periods than when evaluated on individual storm events.

Water level observations from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for improving probabilistic estimations of interaction between rivers and groundwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandini, Filippo; Butts, Michael; Vammen Jacobsen, Torsten; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2016-04-01

Integrated hydrological models are generally calibrated against observations of river discharge and piezometric head in groundwater aquifers. Integrated hydrological models are rarely calibrated against spatially distributed water level observations measured by either in-situ stations or spaceborne platforms. Indeed in-situ observations derived from ground-based stations are generally spaced too far apart to capture spatial patterns in the water surface. On the other hand spaceborne observations have limited spatial resolution. Additionally satellite observations have a temporal resolution which is not ideal for observing the temporal patterns of the hydrological variables during extreme events. UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) offer several advantages: i) high spatial resolution; ii) tracking of the water body better than any satellite technology; iii) timing of the sampling merely depending on the operators. In this case study the Mølleåen river (Denmark) and its catchment have been simulated through an integrated hydrological model (MIKE 11-MIKE SHE). This model was initially calibrated against observations of river discharge retrieved by in-situ stations and against piezometric head of the aquifers. Subsequently the hydrological model has been calibrated against dense spatially distributed water level observations, which could potentially be retrieved by UAVs. Error characteristics of synthetic UAV water level observations were taken from a recent proof-of-concept study. Since the technology for ranging water level is under development, UAV synthetic water level observations were extracted from another model of the river with higher spatial resolution (cross sections located every 10 m). This model with high resolution is assumed to be absolute truth for the purpose of this work. The river model with the coarser resolution has been calibrated against the synthetic water level observations through Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, an efficient global Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in high-dimensional spaces. Calibration against water level has demonstrated a significant improvement of the estimation of the exchange flow between groundwater and river branch. Groundwater flux and direction are now better simulated. Reliability and sharpness of the probabilistic forecasts are assessed with the sharpness, the interval skill score (ISS) of the 95{%} confidence interval, and with the root mean square error (RMSE) of the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP). The binary outcome (either gaining or loosing stream) of the flow direction is assessed with Brier score (BS). After water level calibration the sharpness of the estimations is approximately doubled with respect to the model calibrated only against discharge, ISS has improved from 2.4-7to 7.8-8 m^3/s\\cdot m, RMSE from 9.2-8 to 2.4-8 m^3/s\\cdot m^and BS is halved from 0.58 to 0.25.

Simulation of hydraulic characteristics in the white sturgeon spawning habitat of the Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles

2005-01-01

Hydraulic characterization of the Kootenai River, especially in the white sturgeon spawning habitat reach, is needed by the Kootenai River White Sturgeon Recovery Team to promote hydraulic conditions that improve spawning conditions for the white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in the Kootenai River. The decreasing population and spawning failure of white sturgeon has led to much concern. Few wild juvenile sturgeons are found in the river today. Determining the location of the transition between backwater and free-flowing water in the Kootenai River is a primary focus for biologists who believe that hydraulic changes at the transition affect the location where the sturgeon choose to spawn. The Kootenai River begins in British Columbia, Canada, and flows through Montana, Idaho, and back into British Columbia. The 65.6-mile reach of the Kootenai River in Idaho was studied. The study area encompasses the white sturgeon spawning reach that has been designated as a critical habitat. A one-dimensional hydraulic-flow model of the study reach was developed, calibrated, and used to develop relations between hydraulic characteristics and water-surface elevation, discharge, velocity, and backwater extent. The model used 164 cross sections, most of which came from a previous river survey conducted in 2002-03. The model was calibrated to water-surface elevations at specific discharges at five gaging stations. Calibrated water-surface elevations ranged from about 1,743 to about 1,759 feet, and discharges used in calibration ranged from 5,000 to 47,500 cubic feet per second. Model calibration was considered acceptable when the difference between measured and simulated water-surface elevations was ?0.15 foot or less. Measured and simulated average velocities also were compared. These comparisons indicated agreement between measured and simulated values. The location of the transition between backwater and free-flowing water was determined using the calibrated model. The model was used to simulate hydraulic characteristics for a range of water-surface elevations from 1,741 to 1,762 feet and discharges from 4,000 to 75,000 cubic feet per second. These simulated hydraulic characteristics were used to develop a three-parameter relation-discharge in the study reach, water-surface elevation at Kootenai River at Porthill gaging station (12322000), and the location of the transition between backwater and free-flowing water. Simulated hydraulic characteristics produced backwater locations ranging from river mile (RM) 105.6 (Porthill) to RM 158 (near Crossport), a span of about 52 miles. However, backwater locations from measured data ranged primarily from RM 152 to RM 157, a 5-mile span. The average backwater location from measured data was at about RM 154. Three-parameter relations also were developed for determining the amount of discharge in the Shorty Island side channel and average velocity at selected cross sections in the study reach. Simulated discharge for the side channel relative to measured data ranged from 0 to about 5,500 cubic feet per second, and simulated average velocity relative to measured data ranged from 0 to about 3.5 feet per second. Relations using other hydraulic, sediment/incipient motion, ecological, and biological characteristics also could be developed. The relations also can be used in real time by accessing data from the Web. Discharge and stage data for two gaging stations, Tribal Hatchery (12310100) and Porthill (12322500), are available from the Idaho U.S. Geological Survey web page (URL: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/id/nwis/current/?type=flow). Because the coordinate axes of the three-parameter relations use discharge from the Tribal Hatchery gaging station and water-surface elevation from the Porthill gaging station, the location of the transition between backwater and free-flowing water can be determined for current conditions using the real-time data. Similarly, discharge in the Shorty Island side channel and (or) average velocity at selected cross sections also can be determined for current conditions.

Status, trends, and changes in freshwater inflows to bay systems in the Corpus Christi Bay National Estuary Program study area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, W.H.; Mosier, J. G.; Bush, P.W.

1997-01-01

The watershed simulation model Hydrologic Simulation Program—Fortran (HSPF) was used to generate simulated flow (runoff) from the 13 watersheds to the six bay systems because adequate gaged streamflow data from which to estimate freshwater inflows are not available; only about 23 percent of the adjacent contributing watershed area is gaged. The model was calibrated for the gaged parts of three watersheds—that is, selected input parameters (meteorologic and hydrologic properties and conditions) that control runoff were adjusted in a series of simulations until an adequate match between model-generated flows and a set (time series) of gaged flows was achieved. The primary model input is rainfall and evaporation data and the model output is a time series of runoff volumes. After calibration, simulations driven by daily rainfall for a 26-year period (1968–93) were done for the 13 watersheds to obtain runoff under current (1983–93), predevelopment (pre-1940 streamflow and pre-urbanization), and future (2010) land-use conditions for estimating freshwater inflows and for comparing runoff under the three land-use conditions; and to obtain time series of runoff from which to estimate time series of freshwater inflows for trend analysis.

Self-Calibrating Respiratory-Flowmeter Combination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westenskow, Dwayne R.; Orr, Joseph A.

1990-01-01

Dual flowmeters ensure accuracy over full range of human respiratory flow rates. System for measurement of respiratory flow employs two flowmeters; one compensates for deficiencies of other. Combination yields easily calibrated system accurate over wide range of gas flow.

A sensitivity analysis of low salinity habitats simulated by a hydrodynamic model in the Manatee River estuary in Florida, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, XinJian

2012-06-01

This paper presents a sensitivity study of simulated availability of low salinity habitats by a hydrodynamic model for the Manatee River estuary located in the southwest portion of the Florida peninsula. The purpose of the modeling study was to establish a regulatory minimum freshwater flow rate required to prevent the estuarine ecosystem from significant harm. The model used in the study was a multi-block model that dynamically couples a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model with a laterally averaged (2DV) hydrodynamic model. The model was calibrated and verified against measured real-time data of surface elevation and salinity at five stations during March 2005-July 2006. The calibrated model was then used to conduct a series of scenario runs to investigate effects of the flow reduction on salinity distributions in the Manatee River estuary. Based on simulated salinity distribution in the estuary, water volumes, bottom areas and shoreline lengths for salinity less than certain predefined values were calculated and analyzed to help establish the minimum freshwater flow rate for the estuarine system. The sensitivity analysis conducted during the modeling study for the Manatee River estuary examined effects of the bottom roughness, ambient vertical eddy viscosity/diffusivity, horizontal eddy viscosity/diffusivity, and ungauged flow on the model results and identified the relative importance of these model parameters (input data) to the outcome of the availability of low salinity habitats. It is found that the ambient vertical eddy viscosity/diffusivity is the most influential factor controlling the model outcome, while the horizontal eddy viscosity/diffusivity is the least influential one.

Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

2017-12-01

Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

Gasification in pulverized coal flames. Second annual progress report, July 1976--August 1977. [Pulverized coal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

George, P. E.; Lenzer, R. C.; Thomas, J. F.

1977-08-01

This project concerns the production of power and synthesis gases from pulverized coal via suspension gasification. Swirling flow in both concentric jet and cyclone gasifiers will separate oxidation and reduction zones. Gasifier performance will be correlated with internally measured temperature and concentration profiles. The test cell flow system and electrical system, which includes a safety interlock design, has been installed. Calibration of the UTI-30C mass spectrometer and construction of the gas sampling system are complete. Both the coal feeder, which has been calibrated, and the boiler are ready for integration into the test cell flow system. Construction and testing ofmore » the cyclone reactor, including methane combustion experiments, is complete. The confined jet reactor has been designed and construction is underway. Investigation of combustion and gasification modeling techniques has begun.« less

Digital-computer model of ground-water flow in Tooele Valley, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Razem, Allan C.; Bartholoma, Scott D.

1980-01-01

A two-dimensional, finite-difference digital-computer model was used to simulate the ground-water flow in the principal artesian aquifer in Tooele Valley, Utah. The parameters used in the model were obtained through field measurements and tests, from historical records, and by trial-and-error adjustments. The model was calibrated against observed water-level changes that occurred during 1941-50, 1951-60, 1961-66, 1967-73, and 1974-78. The reliability of the predictions is good in most parts of the valley, as is shown by the ability of the model to match historical water-level changes.

Aero-Thermal Calibration of the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (2012 Test)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pastor-Barsi, Christine M.; Arrington, E. Allen; VanZante, Judith Foss

2012-01-01

A major modification of the refrigeration plant and heat exchanger at the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) occurred in autumn of 2011. It is standard practice at NASA Glenn to perform a full aero-thermal calibration of the test section of a wind tunnel facility upon completion of major modifications. This paper will discuss the tools and techniques used to complete an aero-thermal calibration of the IRT and the results that were acquired. The goal of this test entry was to complete a flow quality survey and aero-thermal calibration measurements in the test section of the IRT. Test hardware that was used includes the 2D Resistive Temperature Detector (RTD) array, 9-ft pressure survey rake, hot wire survey rake, and the quick check survey rake. This test hardware provides a map of the velocity, Mach number, total and static pressure, total temperature, flow angle and turbulence intensity. The data acquired were then reduced to examine pressure, temperature, velocity, flow angle, and turbulence intensity. Reduced data has been evaluated to assess how the facility meets flow quality goals. No icing conditions were tested as part of the aero-thermal calibration. However, the effects of the spray bar air injections on the flow quality and aero-thermal calibration measurements were examined as part of this calibration.

Concentration data and dimensionality in groundwater models: evaluation using inverse modelling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barlebo, H.C.; Hill, M.C.; Rosbjerg, D.; Jensen, K.H.

1998-01-01

A three-dimensional inverse groundwater flow and transport model that fits hydraulic-head and concentration data simultaneously using nonlinear regression is presented and applied to a layered sand and silt groundwater system beneath the Grindsted Landfill in Denmark. The aquifer is composed of rather homogeneous hydrogeologic layers. Two issues common to groundwater flow and transport modelling are investigated: 1) The accuracy of simulated concentrations in the case of calibration with head data alone; and 2) The advantages and disadvantages of using a two-dimensional cross-sectional model instead of a three-dimensional model to simulate contaminant transport when the source is at the land surface. Results show that using only hydraulic heads in the nonlinear regression produces a simulated plume that is profoundly different from what is obtained in a calibration using both hydraulic-head and concentration data. The present study provides a well-documented example of the differences that can occur. Representing the system as a two-dimensional cross-section obviously omits some of the system dynamics. It was, however, possible to obtain a simulated plume cross-section that matched the actual plume cross-section well. The two-dimensional model execution times were about a seventh of those for the three-dimensional model, but some difficulties were encountered in representing the spatially variable source concentrations and less precise simulated concentrations were calculated by the two-dimensional model compared to the three-dimensional model. Summed up, the present study indicates that three dimensional modelling using both hydraulic heads and concentrations in the calibration should be preferred in the considered type of transport studies.

Using groundwater temperature data to constrain parameter estimation in a groundwater flow model of a wetland system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bravo, Hector R.; Jiang, Feng; Hunt, Randall J.

2002-01-01

Parameter estimation is a powerful way to calibrate models. While head data alone are often insufficient to estimate unique parameters due to model nonuniqueness, flow‐and‐heat‐transport modeling can constrain estimation and allow simultaneous estimation of boundary fluxes and hydraulic conductivity. In this work, synthetic and field models that did not converge when head data were used did converge when head and temperature were used. Furthermore, frequency domain analyses of head and temperature data allowed selection of appropriate modeling timescales. Inflows in the Wilton, Wisconsin, wetlands could be estimated over periods such as a growing season and over periods of a few days when heads were nearly steady and groundwater temperature varied during the day. While this methodology is computationally more demanding than traditional head calibration, the results gained are unobtainable using the traditional approach. These results suggest that temperature can efficiently supplement head data in systems where accurate flux calibration targets are unavailable.

A hybrid framework for quantifying the influence of data in hydrological model calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, David P.; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth; McInerney, David

2018-06-01

Influence diagnostics aim to identify a small number of influential data points that have a disproportionate impact on the model parameters and/or predictions. The key issues with current influence diagnostic techniques are that the regression-theory approaches do not provide hydrologically relevant influence metrics, while the case-deletion approaches are computationally expensive to calculate. The main objective of this study is to introduce a new two-stage hybrid framework that overcomes these challenges, by delivering hydrologically relevant influence metrics in a computationally efficient manner. Stage one uses computationally efficient regression-theory influence diagnostics to identify the most influential points based on Cook's distance. Stage two then uses case-deletion influence diagnostics to quantify the influence of points using hydrologically relevant metrics. To illustrate the application of the hybrid framework, we conducted three experiments on 11 hydro-climatologically diverse Australian catchments using the GR4J hydrological model. The first experiment investigated how many data points from stage one need to be retained in order to reliably identify those points that have the hightest influence on hydrologically relevant metrics. We found that a choice of 30-50 is suitable for hydrological applications similar to those explored in this study (30 points identified the most influential data 98% of the time and reduced the required recalibrations by 99% for a 10 year calibration period). The second experiment found little evidence of a change in the magnitude of influence with increasing calibration period length from 1, 2, 5 to 10 years. Even for 10 years the impact of influential points can still be high (>30% influence on maximum predicted flows). The third experiment compared the standard least squares (SLS) objective function with the weighted least squares (WLS) objective function on a 10 year calibration period. In two out of three flow metrics there was evidence that SLS, with the assumption of homoscedastic residual error, identified data points with higher influence (largest changes of 40%, 10%, and 44% for the maximum, mean, and low flows, respectively) than WLS, with the assumption of heteroscedastic residual errors (largest changes of 26%, 6%, and 6% for the maximum, mean, and low flows, respectively). The hybrid framework complements existing model diagnostic tools and can be applied to a wide range of hydrological modelling scenarios.

40 CFR 92.117 - Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration, particulate measurement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Gas meter or flow instrumentation... ENGINES Test Procedures § 92.117 Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration, particulate measurement. (a) Sampling for particulate emissions requires the use of gas meters or flow instrumentation to...

40 CFR 92.117 - Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration, particulate measurement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Gas meter or flow instrumentation... ENGINES Test Procedures § 92.117 Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration, particulate measurement. (a) Sampling for particulate emissions requires the use of gas meters or flow instrumentation to...

40 CFR 92.117 - Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration, particulate measurement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Gas meter or flow instrumentation... ENGINES Test Procedures § 92.117 Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration, particulate measurement. (a) Sampling for particulate emissions requires the use of gas meters or flow instrumentation to...

40 CFR 92.117 - Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration, particulate measurement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Gas meter or flow instrumentation... ENGINES Test Procedures § 92.117 Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration, particulate measurement. (a) Sampling for particulate emissions requires the use of gas meters or flow instrumentation to...

40 CFR 92.117 - Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration, particulate measurement.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Gas meter or flow instrumentation... ENGINES Test Procedures § 92.117 Gas meter or flow instrumentation calibration, particulate measurement. (a) Sampling for particulate emissions requires the use of gas meters or flow instrumentation to...

Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

2016-04-01

Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative impact on the calibration error, but makes it easier to interpolate the post-processing parameters to uncalibrated locations. We also look into different methods for handling the non-normal distributions of runoff data and the effect of different data transformations on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Engeland, K. and Steinsland, I.: Probabilistic postprocessing models for flow forecasts for a system of catchments and several lead times, Water Resour. Res., 50(1), 182-197, doi:10.1002/2012WR012757, 2014. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1, 2005.

Application of a parameter-estimation technique to modeling the regional aquifer underlying the eastern Snake River plain, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garabedian, Stephen P.

1986-01-01

A nonlinear, least-squares regression technique for the estimation of ground-water flow model parameters was applied to the regional aquifer underlying the eastern Snake River Plain, Idaho. The technique uses a computer program to simulate two-dimensional, steady-state ground-water flow. Hydrologic data for the 1980 water year were used to calculate recharge rates, boundary fluxes, and spring discharges. Ground-water use was estimated from irrigated land maps and crop consumptive-use figures. These estimates of ground-water withdrawal, recharge rates, and boundary flux, along with leakance, were used as known values in the model calibration of transmissivity. Leakance values were adjusted between regression solutions by comparing model-calculated to measured spring discharges. In other simulations, recharge and leakance also were calibrated as prior-information regression parameters, which limits the variation of these parameters using a normalized standard error of estimate. Results from a best-fit model indicate a wide areal range in transmissivity from about 0.05 to 44 feet squared per second and in leakance from about 2.2x10 -9 to 6.0 x 10 -8 feet per second per foot. Along with parameter values, model statistics also were calculated, including the coefficient of correlation between calculated and observed head (0.996), the standard error of the estimates for head (40 feet), and the parameter coefficients of variation (about 10-40 percent). Additional boundary flux was added in some areas during calibration to achieve proper fit to ground-water flow directions. Model fit improved significantly when areas that violated model assumptions were removed. It also improved slightly when y-direction (northwest-southeast) transmissivity values were larger than x-direction (northeast-southwest) transmissivity values. The model was most sensitive to changes in recharge, and in some areas, to changes in transmissivity, particularly near the spring discharge area from Milner Dam to King Hill.

Simulation of water level, streamflow, and mass transport for the Cooper and Wando rivers near Charleston, South Carolina, 1992-95

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conrads, P.A.; Smith, P.A.

1996-01-01

The one-dimensional, unsteady-flow model, BRANCH, and the Branched Lagrangian Transport Model (BLTM) were calibrated and validated for the Cooper and Wando Rivers near Charleston, South Carolina. Data used to calibrate the BRANCH model included water-level data at four locations on the Cooper River and two locations on the Wando River, measured tidal-cycle streamflows at five locations on the Wando River, and simulated tidal-cycle streamflows (using an existing validated BRANCH model of the Cooper River) for four locations on the Cooper River. The BRANCH model was used to generate the necessary hydraulic data used in the BLTM model. The BLTM model was calibrated and validated using time series of salinity concentrations at two locations on the Cooper River and at two locations on the Wando River. Successful calibration and validation of the BRANCH and BLTM models to water levels, stream flows, and salinity were achieved after applying a positive 0.45 foot datum correction to the downstream boundary. The sensitivity of the simulated salinity concentrations to changes in the downstream gage datum, channel geometry, and roughness coefficient in the BRANCH model, and to the dispersion factor in the BLTM model was evaluated. The simulated salinity concentrations were most sensitive to changes in the downstream gage datum. A decrease of 0.5 feet in the downstream gage datum increased the simulated 3-day mean salinity concentration by 107 percent (12.7 to 26.3 parts per thousand). The range of the salinity concentration went from a tidal oscillation with a standard deviation of 3.9 parts per thousand to a nearly constant concentration with a standard deviation of 0.0 parts per thousand. An increase in the downstream gage datum decreased the simulated 3-day mean salinity concentration by 47 percent (12.7 to 6.7 parts per thousand) and decreased the standard deviation from 3.9 to 3.4 parts per thousand.

Calibration and Data Analysis of the MC-130 Air Balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Booth, Dennis; Ulbrich, N.

2012-01-01

Design, calibration, calibration analysis, and intended use of the MC-130 air balance are discussed. The MC-130 balance is an 8.0 inch diameter force balance that has two separate internal air flow systems and one external bellows system. The manual calibration of the balance consisted of a total of 1854 data points with both unpressurized and pressurized air flowing through the balance. A subset of 1160 data points was chosen for the calibration data analysis. The regression analysis of the subset was performed using two fundamentally different analysis approaches. First, the data analysis was performed using a recently developed extension of the Iterative Method. This approach fits gage outputs as a function of both applied balance loads and bellows pressures while still allowing the application of the iteration scheme that is used with the Iterative Method. Then, for comparison, the axial force was also analyzed using the Non-Iterative Method. This alternate approach directly fits loads as a function of measured gage outputs and bellows pressures and does not require a load iteration. The regression models used by both the extended Iterative and Non-Iterative Method were constructed such that they met a set of widely accepted statistical quality requirements. These requirements lead to reliable regression models and prevent overfitting of data because they ensure that no hidden near-linear dependencies between regression model terms exist and that only statistically significant terms are included. Finally, a comparison of the axial force residuals was performed. Overall, axial force estimates obtained from both methods show excellent agreement as the differences of the standard deviation of the axial force residuals are on the order of 0.001 % of the axial force capacity.

Turbulence and modeling in transonic flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubesin, Morris W.; Viegas, John R.

1989-01-01

A review is made of the performance of a variety of turbulence models in the evaluation of a particular well documented transonic flow. This is done to supplement a previous attempt to calibrate and verify transonic airfoil codes by including many more turbulence models than used in the earlier work and applying the calculations to an experiment that did not suffer from uncertainties in angle of attack and was free of wind tunnel interference. It is found from this work, as well as in the earlier study, that the Johnson-King turbulence model is superior for transonic flows over simple aerodynamic surfaces, including moderate separation. It is also shown that some field equation models with wall function boundary conditions can be competitive with it.

Structure and application of an interface program between a geographic-information system and a ground-water flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Metre, P.C.

1990-01-01

A computer-program interface between a geographic-information system and a groundwater flow model links two unrelated software systems for use in developing the flow models. The interface program allows the modeler to compile and manage geographic components of a groundwater model within the geographic information system. A significant savings of time and effort is realized in developing, calibrating, and displaying the groundwater flow model. Four major guidelines were followed in developing the interface program: (1) no changes to the groundwater flow model code were to be made; (2) a data structure was to be designed within the geographic information system that follows the same basic data structure as the groundwater flow model; (3) the interface program was to be flexible enough to support all basic data options available within the model; and (4) the interface program was to be as efficient as possible in terms of computer time used and online-storage space needed. Because some programs in the interface are written in control-program language, the interface will run only on a computer with the PRIMOS operating system. (USGS)

High spatial-temporal resolution and integrated surface and subsurface precipitation-runoff modelling for a small stormwater catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hailegeorgis, Teklu T.; Alfredsen, Knut

2018-02-01

Reliable runoff estimation is important for design of water infrastructure and flood risk management in urban catchments. We developed a spatially distributed Precipitation-Runoff (P-R) model that explicitly represents the land cover information, performs integrated modelling of surface and subsurface components of the urban precipitation water cycle and flow routing. We conducted parameter calibration and validation for a small (21.255 ha) stormwater catchment in Trondheim City during Summer-Autumn events and season, and snow-influenced Winter-Spring seasons at high spatial and temporal resolutions of respectively 5 m × 5 m grid size and 2 min. The calibration resulted in good performance measures (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE = 0.65-0.94) and acceptable validation NSE for the seasonal and snow-influenced periods. The infiltration excess surface runoff dominates the peak flows while the contribution of subsurface flow to the sewer pipes also augments the peak flows. Based on the total volumes of simulated flow in sewer pipes (Qsim) and precipitation (P) during the calibration periods, the Qsim/P ranges from 21.44% for an event to 56.50% for the Winter-Spring season, which are in close agreement with the observed volumes (Qobs/P). The lowest percentage of precipitation volume that is transformed to the total simulated runoff in the catchment (QT) is 79.77%. Computation of evapotranspiration (ET) indicated that the ET/P is less than 3% for the events and snow-influenced seasons while it is about 18% for the Summer-Autumn season. The subsurface flow contribution to the sewer pipes are markedly higher than the total surface runoff volume for some events and the Summer-Autumn season. The peakiest flow rates correspond to the Winter-Spring season. Therefore, urban runoff simulation for design and management purposes should include two-way interactions between the subsurface runoff and flow in sewer pipes, and snow-influenced seasons. The developed urban P-R model is useful for better computation of runoff generated from different land cover, for assessments of stormwater management techniques (e.g. the Low Impact Development or LID) and the impacts of land cover and climate change. There are some simplifications or limitations such as the runoff routing does not involve detailed sewer hydraulics, effects of leakages from water supply systems and faulty/illegal connections from sanitary sewer are not considered, the model cannot identify actual locations of the interactions between the subsurface runoff and sewer pipes and lacks parsimony.

Hydrogeology, hydrologic effects of development, and simulation of groundwater flow in the Borrego Valley, San Diego County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia C.; Stamos, Christina L.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Wright, Michael T.; Burgess, Matthew K.; Sneed, Michelle; Brandt, Justin; Martin, Peter; Coes, Alissa L.

2015-11-24

This report documents and presents (1) an analysis of the conceptual model, (2) a description of the hydrologic features, (3) a compilation and analysis of water-quality data, (4) the measurement and analysis of land subsidence by using geophysical and remote sensing techniques, (5) the development and calibration of a two-dimensional borehole-groundwater-flow model to estimate aquifer hydraulic conductivities, (6) the development and calibration of a three-dimensional (3-D) integrated hydrologic flow model, (7) a water-availability analysis with respect to current climate variability and land use, and (8) potential future management scenarios. The integrated hydrologic model, referred to here as the “Borrego Valley Hydrologic Model” (BVHM), is a tool that can provide results with the accuracy needed for making water-management decisions, although potential future refinements and enhancements could further improve the level of spatial and temporal resolution and model accuracy. Because the model incorporates time-varying inflows and outflows, this tool can be used to evaluate the effects of temporal changes in recharge and pumping and to compare the relative effects of different water-management scenarios on the aquifer system. Overall, the development of the hydrogeologic and hydrologic models, data networks, and hydrologic analysis provides a basis for assessing surface and groundwater availability and potential water-resource management guidelines.

Summary of Research 1998, Department of Mechanical Engineering.

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-08-01

thermoacoustic behavior in strong zero-mean oscillatory flows with potential application to the design of heat exchangers in thermoacoustic engines...important feature in the thermal characterization of microtubes , which are to be used in microheat exchangers . DoD KEY TECHNOLOGY AREA: Modeling and...Simulation KEYWORDS: Laminar Duct Flows, Convection and Conduction Heat Transfer, Axial Conduction, Micro- heat Exchang - ers DEVELOPMENT AND CALIBRATION

Effects of recharge, Upper Floridan aquifer heads, and time scale on simulated ground-water exchange with Lake Starr, a seepage lake in central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swancar, Amy; Lee, Terrie Mackin

2003-01-01

Lake Starr and other lakes in the mantled karst terrain of Florida's Central Lake District are surrounded by a conductive surficial aquifer system that receives highly variable recharge from rainfall. In addition, downward leakage from these lakes varies as heads in the underlying Upper Floridan aquifer change seasonally and with pumpage. A saturated three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model was used to simulate the effects of recharge, Upper Floridan aquifer heads, and model time scale on ground-water exchange with Lake Starr. The lake was simulated as an active part of the model using high hydraulic conductivity cells. Simulated ground-water flow was compared to net ground-water flow estimated from a rigorously derived water budget for the 2-year period August 1996-July 1998. Calibrating saturated ground-water flow models with monthly stress periods to a monthly lake water budget will result in underpredicting gross inflow to, and leakage from, ridge lakes in Florida. Underprediction of ground-water inflow occurs because recharge stresses and ground-water flow responses during rainy periods are averaged over too long a time period using monthly stress periods. When inflow is underestimated during calibration, leakage also is underestimated because inflow and leakage are correlated if lake stage is maintained over the long term. Underpredicted leakage reduces the implied effect of ground-water withdrawals from the Upper Floridan aquifer on the lake. Calibrating the weekly simulation required accounting for transient responses in the water table near the lake that generated the greater range of net ground-water flow values seen in the weekly water budget. Calibrating to the weekly lake water budget also required increasing the value of annual recharge in the nearshore region well above the initial estimate of 35 percent of the rainfall, and increasing the hydraulic conductivity of the deposits around and beneath the lake. To simulate the total ground-water inflow to lakes, saturated-flow models of lake basins need to account for the potential effects of rapid and efficient recharge in the surficial aquifer system closest to the lake. In this part of the basin, the ability to accurately estimate recharge is crucial because the water table is shallowest and the response time between rainfall and recharge is shortest. Use of the one-dimensional LEACHM model to simulate the effects of the unsaturated zone on the timing and magnitude of recharge in the nearshore improved the simulation of peak values of ground-water inflow to Lake Starr. Results of weekly simulations suggest that weekly recharge can approach the majority of weekly rainfall on the nearshore part of the lake basin. However, even though a weekly simulation with higher recharge in the nearshore was able to reproduce the extremes of ground-water exchange with the lake more accurately, it was not consistently better at predicting net ground-water flow within the water budget error than a simulation with lower recharge. The more subtle effects of rainfall and recharge on ground-water inflow to the lake were more difficult to simulate. The use of variably saturated flow modeling, with time scales that are shorter than weekly and finer spatial discretization, is probably necessary to understand these processes. The basin-wide model of Lake Starr had difficulty simulating the full spectrum of ground-water inflows observed in the water budget because of insufficient information about recharge to ground water, and because of practical limits on spatial and temporal discretization in a model at this scale. In contrast, the saturated flow model appeared to successfully simulate the effects of heads in the Upper Floridan aquifer on water levels and ground-water exchange with the lake at both weekly and monthly stress periods. Most of the variability in lake leakage can be explained by the average vertical head difference between the lake and a re

Simulation of the cumulative hydrological response to green infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avellaneda, P. M.; Jefferson, A. J.; Grieser, J. M.; Bush, S. A.

2017-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the cumulative hydrologic performance of green infrastructure in a residential area of the city of Parma, Ohio, draining to a tributary of the Cuyahoga River. Green infrastructure included the following spatially distributed devices: 16 street-side bioretention cells, 7 rain gardens, and 37 rain barrels. Data consisted of rainfall and outfall flow records for a wide range of storm events, including pretreatment and treatment periods. The Stormwater Management Model was calibrated and validated to predict the hydrologic response of green infrastructure. The calibrated model was used to quantify annual water budget alterations and discharge frequency over a 6 year simulation period. For the study catchment, we observed a treatment effect with increases of 1.4% in evaporation, 7.6% in infiltration, and a 9.0% reduction in surface runoff. The hydrologic performance of green infrastructure was evaluated by comparing the flow duration curve for pretreatment and treatment outfall flow scenarios. The flow duration curve shifted downward for the green infrastructure scenario. Discharges with a 0.5, 1, 2, and 5 year return period were reduced by an average of 29%. Parameter and predictive uncertainties were inspected by implementing a Bayesian statistical approach.

Conceptual model and numerical simulation of the groundwater-flow system of Bainbridge Island, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Bachmann, Matthew P.; Sumioka, Steve S.; Olsen, Theresa D.

2011-01-01

Groundwater is the sole source of drinking water for the population of Bainbridge Island. Increased use of groundwater supplies on Bainbridge Island as the population has grown over time has created concern about the quantity of water available and whether saltwater intrusion will occur as groundwater usage increases. A groundwater-flow model was developed to aid in the understanding of the groundwater system and the effects of groundwater development alternatives on the water resources of Bainbridge Island. Bainbridge Island is underlain by unconsolidated deposits of glacial and nonglacial origin. The surficial geologic units and the deposits at depth were differentiated into aquifers and confining units on the basis of areal extent and general water-bearing characteristics. Eleven principal hydrogeologic units are recognized in the study area and form the basis of the groundwater-flow model. A transient variable-density groundwater-flow model of Bainbridge Island and the surrounding area was developed to simulate current (2008) groundwater conditions. The model was calibrated to water levels measured during 2007 and 2008 using parameter estimation (PEST) to minimize the weighted differences or residuals between simulated and measured hydraulic head. The calibrated model was used to make some general observations of the groundwater system in 2008. Total flow through the groundwater system was about 31,000 acre-ft/ yr. The recharge to the groundwater system was from precipitation and septic-system returns. Groundwater flow to Bainbridge Island accounted for about 1,000 acre-ft/ yr or slightly more than 5 percent of the recharge amounts. Groundwater discharge was predominately to streams, lakes, springs, and seepage faces (16,000 acre-ft/yr) and directly to marine waters (10,000 acre-ft/yr). Total groundwater withdrawals in 2008 were slightly more than 6 percent (2,000 acre-ft/yr) of the total flow. The calibrated model was used to simulate predevelopment conditions, during which no groundwater pumping or secondary recharge occurred and currently developed land was covered by conifer forests. Simulated water levels in the uppermost aquifer generally were slightly higher at the end of 2008 than under predevelopment conditions, likely due to increased recharge from septic returns and reduced evapotranspiration losses due to conversion of land cover from forests to current conditions. Simulated changes in water levels for the extensively used sea-level aquifer were variable, although areas with declines between zero and 10 feet were common and generally can be traced to withdrawals from public-supply drinking wells. Simulated water-level declines in the deep (Fletcher Bay) aquifer between predevelopment and 2008 conditions ranged from about 10 feet in the northeast to about 25 feet on the western edge of the Island. These declines are related to groundwater withdrawals for public-supply purposes. The calibrated model also was used to simulate the possible effects of increased groundwater pumping and changes to recharge due to changes in land use and climactic conditions between 2008 and 2035 under minimal, expected, and maximum impact conditions. Drawdowns generally were small for most of the Island (less than 10 ft) for the minimal and expected impact scenarios, and were larger for the maximum impact scenario. No saltwater intrusion was evident in any scenario by the year 2035. The direction of flow in the deep Fletcher Bay aquifer was simulated to reverse direction from its predevelopment west to east direction to an east to west direction under the maximum impact scenario.

Behaviour of mudflows realized in a laboratory apparatus and relative numerical calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brezzi, Lorenzo; Gabrieli, Fabio; Kaitna, Roland; Cola, Simonetta

2016-04-01

Nowadays, numerical simulations are indispensable allies for the researchers to reproduce phenomena such as earth-flows, debris-flows and mudflows. One of the most difficult and problematic phases is about the choice and the calibration of the parameters to be included in the model at the real scale. Surely, it can be useful to start from laboratory experiment that simplify as much as possible the case study with the aim of reducing uncertainties related to the trigger and the propagation of a real flow. In this way, geometry of the problem, identification of the triggering mass, are well known and constrained in the experimental tests as in the numerical simulations and the focus of the study may be moved to the material parameters. This article wants to analyze the behavior of different mixtures of water and kaolin, which flow in a laboratory channel. A 10 dm3 prismatic container that discharges the material into a channel 2m long and 0.16 m wide composes the simple experimental apparatus. The chute base was roughened by glued sand and inclined with a 21° angle. Initially, we evaluated the lengths of run-out, the spread and shape of the deposit for five different mixtures. A huge quantity of information were obtained by 3 laser sensors attached to the channel and by photogrammetry, that gives out a 3D model of the deposit shape at the end of the flow. Subsequently, we reproduced these physical phenomena by using the numerical model Geoflow-SPH (Pastor et al., 2008; 2014) , governed by a Bingham rheological law (O'Brien & Julien, 1988), and we calibrated the different tests by back-analysis to assess optimum parameters. The final goal was the comprehension of the relationship that characterizes the parameters with the variation of the kaolin content in the mixtures.

Calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model (RZWQM2) using surrogate global optimization

DOE PAGES

Xi, Maolong; Lu, Dan; Gui, Dongwei; ...

2016-11-27

Robust calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model is critical for simulating crop yield and water quality and making reasonable agricultural management. However, calibration of the agricultural-hydrological system models is challenging because of model complexity, the existence of strong parameter correlation, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near-optimal solution within an affordable time, which greatly restricts the successful application of the model. The goal of this study is to locate the optimal solution of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) given a limited simulation time, so asmore » to improve the model simulation and help make rational and effective agricultural-hydrological decisions. To this end, we propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse-grid based surrogates. We first used advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the actual RZWQM2, and then we calibrate the surrogate model using the global optimization algorithm, Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). As the surrogate model is a polynomial with fast evaluation, it can be efficiently evaluated with a sufficiently large number of times during the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate seven model parameters against five years of yield, drain flow, and NO 3-N loss data from a subsurface-drained corn-soybean field in Iowa. Results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the RZWQM2 with a relatively small number of SG points (i.e., RZWQM2 runs). Compared to the conventional QPSO algorithm, our surrogate-based optimization method can achieve a smaller objective function value and better calibration performance using a fewer number of expensive RZWQM2 executions, which greatly improves computational efficiency.« less

Calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model (RZWQM2) using surrogate global optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xi, Maolong; Lu, Dan; Gui, Dongwei; Qi, Zhiming; Zhang, Guannan

2017-01-01

Robust calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model is critical for simulating crop yield and water quality and making reasonable agricultural management. However, calibration of the agricultural-hydrological system models is challenging because of model complexity, the existence of strong parameter correlation, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near-optimal solution within an affordable time, which greatly restricts the successful application of the model. The goal of this study is to locate the optimal solution of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) given a limited simulation time, so as to improve the model simulation and help make rational and effective agricultural-hydrological decisions. To this end, we propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse-grid based surrogates. We first used advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the actual RZWQM2, and then we calibrate the surrogate model using the global optimization algorithm, Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). As the surrogate model is a polynomial with fast evaluation, it can be efficiently evaluated with a sufficiently large number of times during the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate seven model parameters against five years of yield, drain flow, and NO3-N loss data from a subsurface-drained corn-soybean field in Iowa. Results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the RZWQM2 with a relatively small number of SG points (i.e., RZWQM2 runs). Compared to the conventional QPSO algorithm, our surrogate-based optimization method can achieve a smaller objective function value and better calibration performance using a fewer number of expensive RZWQM2 executions, which greatly improves computational efficiency.

Calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model (RZWQM2) using surrogate global optimization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xi, Maolong; Lu, Dan; Gui, Dongwei

Robust calibration of an agricultural-hydrological model is critical for simulating crop yield and water quality and making reasonable agricultural management. However, calibration of the agricultural-hydrological system models is challenging because of model complexity, the existence of strong parameter correlation, and significant computational requirements. Therefore, only a limited number of simulations can be allowed in any attempt to find a near-optimal solution within an affordable time, which greatly restricts the successful application of the model. The goal of this study is to locate the optimal solution of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) given a limited simulation time, so asmore » to improve the model simulation and help make rational and effective agricultural-hydrological decisions. To this end, we propose a computationally efficient global optimization procedure using sparse-grid based surrogates. We first used advanced sparse grid (SG) interpolation to construct a surrogate system of the actual RZWQM2, and then we calibrate the surrogate model using the global optimization algorithm, Quantum-behaved Particle Swarm Optimization (QPSO). As the surrogate model is a polynomial with fast evaluation, it can be efficiently evaluated with a sufficiently large number of times during the optimization, which facilitates the global search. We calibrate seven model parameters against five years of yield, drain flow, and NO 3-N loss data from a subsurface-drained corn-soybean field in Iowa. Results indicate that an accurate surrogate model can be created for the RZWQM2 with a relatively small number of SG points (i.e., RZWQM2 runs). Compared to the conventional QPSO algorithm, our surrogate-based optimization method can achieve a smaller objective function value and better calibration performance using a fewer number of expensive RZWQM2 executions, which greatly improves computational efficiency.« less

Evaluation of Hydrologic Simulations Developed Using Multi-Model Synthesis and Remotely-Sensed Data within a Portfolio of Calibration Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Markstrom, S. L.

2016-12-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support coordinated, comprehensive and consistent hydrologic model development, and facilitate the application of hydrologic simulations within the conterminous United States (CONUS). As many stream reaches in the CONUS are either not gaged, or are substantially impacted by water use or flow regulation, ancillary information must be used to determine reasonable parameter estimations for streamflow simulations. Hydrologic models for 1,576 gaged watersheds across the CONUS were developed to test the feasibility of improving streamflow simulations linking physically-based hydrologic models with remotely-sensed data products (i.e. snow water equivalent). Initially, the physically-based models were calibrated to measured streamflow data to provide a baseline for comparison across multiple calibration strategy tests. In addition, not all ancillary datasets are appropriate for application to all parts of the CONUS (e.g. snow water equivalent in the southeastern U.S., where snow is a rarity). As it is not expected that any one data product or model simulation will be sufficient for representing hydrologic behavior across the entire CONUS, a systematic evaluation of which data products improve hydrologic simulations for various regions across the CONUS was performed. The resulting portfolio of calibration strategies can be used to guide selection of an appropriate combination of modeled and measured information for hydrologic model development and calibration. In addition, these calibration strategies have been developed to be flexible so that new data products can be assimilated. This analysis provides a foundation to understand how well models work when sufficient streamflow data are not available and could be used to further inform hydrologic model parameter development for ungaged areas.

Man vs. Machine: An interactive poll to evaluate hydrological model performance of a manual and an automatic calibration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wesemann, Johannes; Burgholzer, Reinhard; Herrnegger, Mathew; Schulz, Karsten

2017-04-01

In recent years, a lot of research in hydrological modelling has been invested to improve the automatic calibration of rainfall-runoff models. This includes for example (1) the implementation of new optimisation methods, (2) the incorporation of new and different objective criteria and signatures in the optimisation and (3) the usage of auxiliary data sets apart from runoff. Nevertheless, in many applications manual calibration is still justifiable and frequently applied. The hydrologist performing the manual calibration, with his expert knowledge, is able to judge the hydrographs simultaneously concerning details but also in a holistic view. This integrated eye-ball verification procedure available to man can be difficult to formulate in objective criteria, even when using a multi-criteria approach. Comparing the results of automatic and manual calibration is not straightforward. Automatic calibration often solely involves objective criteria such as Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient or the Kling-Gupta-Efficiency as a benchmark during the calibration. Consequently, a comparison based on such measures is intrinsically biased towards automatic calibration. Additionally, objective criteria do not cover all aspects of a hydrograph leaving questions concerning the quality of a simulation open. This contribution therefore seeks to examine the quality of manually and automatically calibrated hydrographs by interactively involving expert knowledge in the evaluation. Simulations have been performed for the Mur catchment in Austria with the rainfall-runoff model COSERO using two parameter sets evolved from a manual and an automatic calibration. A subset of resulting hydrographs for observation and simulation, representing the typical flow conditions and events, will be evaluated in this study. In an interactive crowdsourcing approach experts attending the session can vote for their preferred simulated hydrograph without having information on the calibration method that produced the respective hydrograph. Therefore, the result of the poll can be seen as an additional quality criterion for the comparison of the two different approaches and help in the evaluation of the automatic calibration method.

Evaluation of a semi-distributed model through an assessment of the spatial coherence of Intercatchment Groundwater Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lavenne, Alban; Thirel, Guillaume; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles; Ramos, Maria-Helena

2016-04-01

Semi-distributed hydrological models aim to provide useful information to understand and manage the spatial distribution of water resources. However, their evaluation is often limited to independent and single evaluations at each sub-catchment within larger catchments. This enables to qualify model performance at different points, but does not provide a coherent assessment of the overall spatial consistency of the model. To cope with these methodological deficiencies, we propose a two-step strategy. First, we apply a sequential spatial calibration procedure to define spatially consistent model parameters. Secondly, we evaluate the hydrological simulations using variables that involve some dependency between sub-catchments to evaluate the overall coherence of model outputs. In this study, we particularly choose to look at the simulated Intercatchment Groundwater Flows (IGF). The idea is that the water that is lost in one place should be recovered somewhere else within the catchment to guarantee a spatially coherent water balance in time. The model used is a recently developed daily semi-distributed model, which is based on a spatial distribution of the lumped GR5J model. The model has five parameters for each sub-catchments and a streamflow velocity parameter for flow routing between them. It implements two reservoirs, one for production and one for routing, and estimates IGF according to the level of the second in a way that catchment can release water to IGF during high flows and receive water through IGF during low flows. The calibration of the model is performed from upstream to downstream, making an efficient use of spatially distributed streamflow measurements. To take model uncertainty into account, we implemented three variants of the original model structure, each one computing in a different way the IGF in each sub-catchment. The study is applied on over 1000 catchments in France. By exploring a wide area and a variability of hydrometeorological conditions, we aim to detect IGF even between catchments which can be quite distant from one another.

The effect of rainfall measurement uncertainties on rainfall-runoff processes modelling.

PubMed

Stransky, D; Bares, V; Fatka, P

2007-01-01

Rainfall data are a crucial input for various tasks concerning the wet weather period. Nevertheless, their measurement is affected by random and systematic errors that cause an underestimation of the rainfall volume. Therefore, the general objective of the presented work was to assess the credibility of measured rainfall data and to evaluate the effect of measurement errors on urban drainage modelling tasks. Within the project, the methodology of the tipping bucket rain gauge (TBR) was defined and assessed in terms of uncertainty analysis. A set of 18 TBRs was calibrated and the results were compared to the previous calibration. This enables us to evaluate the ageing of TBRs. A propagation of calibration and other systematic errors through the rainfall-runoff model was performed on experimental catchment. It was found that the TBR calibration is important mainly for tasks connected with the assessment of peak values and high flow durations. The omission of calibration leads to up to 30% underestimation and the effect of other systematic errors can add a further 15%. The TBR calibration should be done every two years in order to catch up the ageing of TBR mechanics. Further, the authors recommend to adjust the dynamic test duration proportionally to generated rainfall intensity.

Cyclic injection, storage, and withdrawal of heated water in a sandstone aquifer at St. Paul, Minnesota: Analysis of thermal data and nonisothermal modeling of short-term test cycles

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Robert T.; Delin, G.N.

1994-01-01

A three-dimensional, anisotropic, nonisothermal, ground-water-flow, and thermal-energy-transport model was constructed to simulate the four short-term test cycles. The model was used to simulate the entire short-term testing period of approximately 400 days. The only model properties varied during model calibration were longitudinal and transverse thermal dispersivities, which, for final calibration, were simulated as 3.3 and 0.33 meters, respectively. The model was calibrated by comparing model-computed results to (1) measured temperatures at selected altitudes in four observation wells, (2) measured temperatures at the production well, and (3) calculated thermal efficiencies of the aquifer. Model-computed withdrawal-water temperatures were within an average of about 3 percent of measured values and model-computed aquifer-thermal efficiencies were within an average of about 5 percent of calculated values for the short-term test cycles. These data indicate that the model accurately simulated thermal-energy storage within the Franconia-Ironton-Galesville aquifer.

Exploring Several Methods of Groundwater Model Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samani, Saeideh; Ye, Ming; Asghari Moghaddam, Asghar

2017-04-01

Selecting reliable models for simulating groundwater flow and solute transport is essential to groundwater resources management and protection. This work is to explore several model selection methods for avoiding over-complex and/or over-parameterized groundwater models. We consider six groundwater flow models with different numbers (6, 10, 10, 13, 13 and 15) of model parameters. These models represent alternative geological interpretations, recharge estimates, and boundary conditions at a study site in Iran. The models were developed with Model Muse, and calibrated against observations of hydraulic head using UCODE. Model selection was conducted by using the following four approaches: (1) Rank the models using their root mean square error (RMSE) obtained after UCODE-based model calibration, (2) Calculate model probability using GLUE method, (3) Evaluate model probability using model selection criteria (AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC), and (4) Evaluate model weights using the Fuzzy Multi-Criteria-Decision-Making (MCDM) approach. MCDM is based on the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy technique for order performance, which is to identify the ideal solution by a gradual expansion from the local to the global scale of model parameters. The KIC and MCDM methods are superior to other methods, as they consider not only the fit between observed and simulated data and the number of parameter, but also uncertainty in model parameters. Considering these factors can prevent from occurring over-complexity and over-parameterization, when selecting the appropriate groundwater flow models. These methods selected, as the best model, one with average complexity (10 parameters) and the best parameter estimation (model 3).

Numerical simulations with a FSI-calibrated actuator disk model of wind turbines operating in stratified ABLs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gohari, S. M. Iman; Sarkar, Sutanu; Korobenko, Artem; Bazilevs, Yuri

2017-11-01

Numerical simulations of wind turbines operating under different regimes of stability are performed using LES. A reduced model, based on the generalized actuator disk model (ADM), is implemented to represent the wind turbines within the ABL. Data from the fluid-solid interaction (FSI) simulations of wind turbines have been used to calibrate and validate the reduced model. The computational cost of this method to include wind turbines is affordable and incurs an overhead as low as 1.45%. Using this reduced model, we study the coupling of unsteady turbulent flow with the wind turbine under different ABL conditions: (i) A neutral ABL with zero heat-flux and inversion layer at 350m, in which the incoming wind has the maximum mean shear between the heights of upper-tip and lower-tip; (2) A shallow ABL with surface cooling rate of -1 K/hr wherein the low level jet occurs at the wind turbine hub height. We will discuss how the differences in the unsteady flow between the two ABL regimes impact the wind turbine performance.

Relation of sortable silt grain-size to deep-sea current speeds: Calibration of the 'Mud Current Meter'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCave, I. N.; Thornalley, D. J. R.; Hall, I. R.

2017-09-01

Fine grain-size parameters have been used for inference of palaeoflow speeds of near-bottom currents in the deep-sea. The basic idea stems from observations of varying sediment size parameters on a continental margin with a gradient from slower flow speeds at shallower depths to faster at deeper. In the deep-sea, size-sorting occurs during deposition after benthic storm resuspension events. At flow speeds below 10-15 cm s-1 mean grain-size in the terrigenous non-cohesive 'sortable silt' range (denoted by SS bar , mean of 10-63 μm) is controlled by selective deposition, whereas above that range removal of finer material by winnowing is also argued to play a role. A calibration of the SS bar grain-size flow speed proxy based on sediment samples taken adjacent to sites of long-term current meters set within 100 m of the sea bed for more than a year is presented here. Grain-size has been measured by either Sedigraph or Coulter Counter, in some cases both, between which there is an excellent correlation for SS bar (r = 0.96). Size-speed data indicate calibration relationships with an overall sensitivity of 1.36 ± 0.19 cm s-1/μm. A calibration line comprising 12 points including 9 from the Iceland overflow region is well defined, but at least two other smaller groups (Weddell/Scotia Sea and NW Atlantic continental rise/Rockall Trough) are fitted by sub-parallel lines with a smaller constant. This suggests a possible influence of the calibre of material supplied to the site of deposition (not the initial source supply) which, if depleted in very coarse silt (31-63 μm), would limit SS bar to smaller values for a given speed than with a broader size-spectrum supply. Local calibrations, or a core-top grain-size and local flow speed, are thus necessary to infer absolute speeds from grain-size. The trend of the calibrations diverges markedly from the slope of experimental critical erosion and deposition flow speeds versus grain-size, making it unlikely that the SS bar (or any deposit size for that matter) is simply predicted by the deposition threshold. A more probable control is the rate of deposition of the different size fractions under changing flows over several tens of years (the typical averaging period of a centimetre of deposited sediment). This suggestion is supported by a simple depositional model for which the deposited SS bar is calculated from measured currents with a size-varying depositional threshold. More surficial sediment samples taken near long-term current meter sites are needed to make calibrations more robust and explore regional differences.

Exploring calibration strategies of SEDD model in two olive orchard watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burguet Marimón, Maria; Taguas, Encarnación V.; Gómez, José A.

2016-04-01

To optimize soil conservation strategies in catchments, an accurate diagnosis of areas contributing to soil erosion using models such as SEDD (Ferro and Minacapilly, 1995) is required. In this study, different calibration strategies of the SEDD model were explored in two commercial olive microcatchments in Spain, Setenil (6.7 ha) and Conchuela (8 ha) monitored for 6 years. The main objectives were to calibrate the model to the study watersheds with different environmental characteristics, soil management ways, and runoff conditions, and to evaluate the temporal variability of the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) at the event and annual scales. The calibration used five different erosivity scenarios with different weights of precipitation components and concentrated flow. To optimize the calibration, biweekly and annual C-RUSLE values and the weight of the travel times of the different watershed morphological units were evaluated. The SEDD model was calibrated successfully in the Conchuela watershed, whereas poor adjustments were found for the Setenil watershed. In Conchuela, the best calibration scenarios were associated with concentrated flow, while the erosivity of Setenil was only rain-dependent. Biweekly C-RUSLE values provided suitable, consistent results in Conchuela where soil moisture over the year. In contrast, there were no appreciable improvements between annual and biweekly C-RUSLE values in Setenil, probably due to the narrower variation interval. The analysis of the SDR function justified the grouping of the different β values according to their sign (positive or negative) as a calibration strategy in Setenil. The medians of these groups of events allowed them to be adjusted (E = 0.7; RMSE = 6.4). In the Conchuela watershed, this variation in the model calibration produced only minor improvements to an adjustment which was already good. The sediment delivery ratios (SDR) in both watersheds indicate very dynamic sediment transport. The mean annual SDR for Setenil was 64.1% (with a standard deviation of 57.5%), while in Conchuela it was 110.1% (with a standard deviation of 83.7%). Extreme SDR values (>100%) were associated with very humid years and with precipitations 30% above the mean values. At the event scale, similar SDR behaviour was observed. SDR values >100% were associated with a dominant role of the gully in exporting sediments out of the watershed in Conchuela, whereas this was done by rills and an ephemeral gully in the Setenil watershed. REFERENCES Ferro,V., Minacapilli, M. 1995. Sediment delivery processes at basin scale. Hydrological Sciences Journal 40, Issue 6. Renard, K.G., Foster, G.R., Weesies, G.A., McCool, D.K., Yoder, D.C., 1997. Predicting soil erosion by water: a guide to conservation planning with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Handbook N°. 703. US Department of Agriculture, 404 pp.

Future climate scenarios and rainfall--runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain).

PubMed

Bürger, C M; Kolditz, O; Fowler, H J; Blenkinsop, S

2007-08-01

Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system.

A GLM Post-processor to Adjust Ensemble Forecast Traces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Schaake, J. C.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2011-12-01

The skill of hydrologic ensemble forecasts has improved in the last years through a better understanding of climate variability, better climate forecasts and new data assimilation techniques. Having been extensively utilized for probabilistic water supply forecasting, interest is developing to utilize these forecasts in operational decision making. Hydrologic ensemble forecast members typically have inherent biases in flow timing and volume caused by (1) structural errors in the models used, (2) systematic errors in the data used to calibrate those models, (3) uncertain initial hydrologic conditions, and (4) uncertainties in the forcing datasets. Furthermore, hydrologic models have often not been developed for operational decision points and ensemble forecasts are thus not always available where needed. A statistical post-processor can be used to address these issues. The post-processor should (1) correct for systematic biases in flow timing and volume, (2) preserve the skill of the available raw forecasts, (3) preserve spatial and temporal correlation as well as the uncertainty in the forecasted flow data, (4) produce adjusted forecast ensembles that represent the variability of the observed hydrograph to be predicted, and (5) preserve individual forecast traces as equally likely. The post-processor should also allow for the translation of available ensemble forecasts to hydrologically similar locations where forecasts are not available. This paper introduces an ensemble post-processor (EPP) developed in support of New York City water supply operations. The EPP employs a general linear model (GLM) to (1) adjust available ensemble forecast traces and (2) create new ensembles for (nearby) locations where only historic flow observations are available. The EPP is calibrated by developing daily and aggregated statistical relationships form historical flow observations and model simulations. These are then used in operation to obtain the conditional probability density function (PDF) of the observations to be predicted, thus jointly adjusting individual ensemble members. These steps are executed in a normalized transformed space ('z'-space) to account for the strong non-linearity in the flow observations involved. A data window centered on each calibration date is used to minimize impacts from sampling errors and data noise. Testing on datasets from California and New York suggests that the EPP can successfully minimize biases in ensemble forecasts, while preserving the raw forecast skill in a 'days to weeks' forecast horizon and reproducing the variability of climatology for 'weeks to years' forecast horizons.

Simulation of the shallow groundwater-flow system near the Hayward Airport, Sawyer County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Juckem, Paul F.; Dunning, Charles P.

2010-01-01

There are concerns that removal and trimming of vegetation during expansion of the Hayward Airport in Sawyer County, Wisconsin, could appreciably change the character of a nearby cold-water stream and its adjacent environs. In cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Transportation, a two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model of the shallow groundwater-flow system near the Hayward Airport was refined from a regional model of the area. The parameter-estimation code PEST was used to obtain a best fit of the model to additional field data collected in February 2007 as part of this study. The additional data were collected during an extended period of low runoff and consisted of water levels and streamflows near the Hayward Airport. Refinements to the regional model included one additional hydraulic-conductivity zone for the airport area, and three additional parameters for streambed resistance in a northern tributary to the Namekagon River and in the main stem of the Namekagon River. In the refined Hayward Airport area model, the calibrated hydraulic conductivity was 11.2 feet per day, which is within the 58.2 to 7.9 feet per day range reported for the regional glacial and sandstone aquifer, and is consistent with a silty soil texture for the area. The calibrated refined model had a best fit of 8.6 days for the streambed resistance of the Namekagon River and between 0.6 and 1.6 days for the northern tributary stream. The previously reported regional groundwater-recharge rate of 10.1 inches per year was adjusted during calibration of the refined model in order to match streamflows measured during the period of extended low runoff; this resulted in an optimal groundwater-recharge rate of 7.1 inches per year during this period. The refined model was then used to simulate the capture zone of the northern tributary to the Namekagon River.

Analysis of suspended solids transport processes in primary settling tanks.

PubMed

Patziger, Miklós; Kiss, Katalin

2015-01-01

The paper shows the results of a long-term research comprising FLUENT-based numerical modeling, in situ measurements and laboratory tests to analyze suspended solids (SS) transport processes in primary settling tanks (PSTs). The investigated PST was one of the rectangular horizontal flow PSTs at a large municipal wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) of a capacity of 500,000 population equivalent. Many middle-sized and large WWTPs are equipped with such PSTs. The numerical PST model was calibrated and validated based on the results of comprehensive in situ flow and SS concentration measurements from low (5 m/h) up to quite high surface overflow rates of 9.5 and 13.0 m/h and on settling and other laboratory tests. The calibrated and validated PST model was also successfully used for evaluation of some slight modifications of the inlet geometry (removing lamellas, installing a flocculation 'box', shifting the inlet into a 'bottom-near' or into a 'high' position), which largely affect PST behavior and performance. The investigations provided detailed insight into the flow and SS transport processes within the investigated PST, which strongly contributes to hydrodynamically driven design and upgrading of PSTs.

Documentation of a groundwater flow model (SJRRPGW) for the San Joaquin River Restoration Program study area, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Traum, Jonathan A.; Phillips, Steven P.; Bennett, George L.; Zamora, Celia; Metzger, Loren F.

2014-01-01

To better understand the potential effects of restoration flows on existing drainage problems, anticipated as a result of the San Joaquin River Restoration Program (SJRRP), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), developed a groundwater flow model (SJRRPGW) of the SJRRP study area that is within 5 miles of the San Joaquin River and adjacent bypass system from Friant Dam to the Merced River. The primary goal of the SJRRP is to reestablish the natural ecology of the river to a degree that restores salmon and other fish populations. Increased flows in the river, particularly during the spring salmon run, are a key component of the restoration effort. A potential consequence of these increased river flows is the exacerbation of existing irrigation drainage problems along a section of the river between Mendota and the confluence with the Merced River. Historically, this reach typically was underlain by a water table within 10 feet of the land surface, thus requiring careful irrigation management and (or) artificial drainage to maintain crop health. The SJRRPGW is designed to meet the short-term needs of the SJRRP; future versions of the model may incorporate potential enhancements, several of which are identified in this report. The SJRRPGW was constructed using the USGS groundwater flow model MODFLOW and was built on the framework of the USGS Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) within which the SJRRPGW model domain is embedded. The Farm Process (FMP2) was used to simulate the supply and demand components of irrigated agriculture. The Streamflow-Routing Package (SFR2) was used to simulate the streams and bypasses and their interaction with the aquifer system. The 1,300-square mile study area was subdivided into 0.25-mile by 0.25-mile cells. The sediment texture of the aquifer system, which was used to distribute hydraulic properties by model cell, was refined from that used in the CVHM to better represent the natural heterogeneity of aquifer-system materials within the model domain. In addition, the stream properties were updated from the CVHM to better simulate stream-aquifer interactions, and water-budget subregions were refined to better simulate agricultural water supply and demand. External boundary conditions were derived from the CVHM. The SJRRPGW was calibrated for April 1961 to September 2003 by using groundwater-level observations from 133 wells and streamflow observations from 19 streamgages. The model was calibrated using public-domain parameter estimation software (PEST) in a semi-automated manner. The simulated groundwater-level elevations and trends (including seasonal fluctuations) and surface-water flow magnitudes and trends reasonably matched observed data. The calibrated model is planned to be used to assess the potential effects of restoration flows on agricultural lands and the relative capabilities of proposed SJRRP actions to reduce these effects.

The 2016 groundwater flow model for Dane County, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsen, Michael J.; Bradbury, Kenneth R.; Hunt, Randall J.; Feinstein, Daniel T.

2016-01-01

A new groundwater flow model for Dane County, Wisconsin, replaces an earlier model developed in the 1990s by the Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey (WGNHS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). This modeling study was conducted cooperatively by the WGNHS and the USGS with funding from the Capital Area Regional Planning Commission (CARPC). Although the overall conceptual model of the groundwater system remains largely unchanged, the incorporation of newly acquired high-quality datasets, recent research findings, and improved modeling and calibration techniques have led to the development of a more detailed and sophisticated model representation of the groundwater system. The new model is three-dimensional and transient, and conceptualizes the county’s hydrogeology as a 12-layer system including all major unlithified and bedrock hydrostratigraphic units and two high-conductivity horizontal fracture zones. Beginning from the surface down, the model represents the unlithified deposits as two distinct model layers (1 and 2). A single layer (3) simulates the Ordovician sandstone and dolomite of the Sinnipee, Ancell, and Prairie du Chien Groups. Sandstone of the Jordan Formation (layer 4) and silty dolostone of the St. Lawrence Formation (layer 5) each comprise separate model layers. The underlying glauconitic sandstone of the Tunnel City Group makes up three distinct layers: an upper aquifer (layer 6), a fracture feature (layer 7), and a lower aquifer (layer 8). The fracture layer represents a network of horizontal bedding-plane fractures that serve as a preferential pathway for groundwater flow. The model simulates the sandstone of the Wonewoc Formation as an upper aquifer (layer 9) with a bedding-plane fracture feature (layer 10) at its base. The Eau Claire aquitard (layer 11) includes shale beds within the upper portion of the Eau Claire Formation. This layer, along with overlying bedrock units, is mostly absent in the preglacially eroded valleys along the Yahara River valley and in northeastern Dane County. Layer 12 represents the Mount Simon sandstone as the lowermost model layer. It directly overlies the Precambrian crystalline basement rock, whose top surface forms the lower boundary of the model. The model uses the USGS MODFLOW-NWT finite-difference code, a standalone version of MODFLOW-2005 that incorporates the Newton (NWT) solver. MODFLOW-NWT improves the handling of unconfined conditions by smoothing the transition from wet to dry cells. The model explicitly simulates groundwater–surface-water interaction with streamflow routing and lake-level fluctuation. Model input included published and unpublished hydrogeologic data from recent estimates of aquifer hydraulic conductivities. A spatial groundwater recharge distribution was obtained from a recent GIS-based, soil-water-balance model for Dane County. Groundwater withdrawals from pumping were simulated for 572 wells across the entire model domain, which includes Dane County and portions of seven neighboring counties—Columbia, Dodge, Green, Iowa, Jefferson, Lafayette, and Rock. These wells withdrew an average of 60 million gallons per day (mgd) over the 5-year period from 2006 through 2010. Within Dane County, 385 wells were simulated with an average withdrawal rate of 52 mgd.Model calibration used the parameter estimation code PEST, and calibration targets included heads, stream and spring flows, lake levels, and borehole flows. Steady-state calibration focused on the period 2006 through 2010; the transient calibration focused on the 7-week drought period from late May through July 2012. This model represents a significant step forward from previous work because of its finer grid resolution, improved hydrostratigraphic discretization, transient capabilities, and more sophisticated representation of surface-water features and multi-aquifer wells.Potential applications of the model include evaluation of potential sites for and impacts of new high-capacity wells, development of wellhead protection plans, evaluating the effects of changing land use and climate on groundwater, and quantifying the relationships between groundwater and surface water.

Hydraulic Conductivity Calibration of Logging NMR in a Granite Aquifer, Laramie Range, Wyoming.

PubMed

Ren, Shuangpo; Parsekian, Andrew D; Zhang, Ye; Carr, Bradley J

2018-05-15

In granite aquifers, fractures can provide both storage volume and conduits for groundwater. Characterization of fracture hydraulic conductivity (K) in such aquifers is important for predicting flow rate and calibrating models. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) well logging is a method to quickly obtain near-borehole hydraulic conductivity (i.e., K NMR ) at high-vertical resolution. On the other hand, FLUTe flexible liner technology can produce a K profile at comparable resolution but requires a fluid driving force between borehole and formation. For three boreholes completed in a fractured granite, we jointly interpreted logging NMR data and FLUTe K estimates to calibrate an empirical equation for translating borehole NMR data to K estimates. For over 90% of the depth intervals investigated from these boreholes, the estimated K NMR are within one order of magnitude of K FLUTe . The empirical parameters obtained from calibrating the NMR data suggest that "intermediate diffusion" and/or "slow diffusion" during the NMR relaxation time may occur in the flowing fractures when hydraulic aperture are sufficiently large. For each borehole, "intermediate diffusion" dominates the relaxation time, therefore assuming "fast diffusion" in the interpretation of NMR data from fractured rock may lead to inaccurate K NMR estimates. We also compare calibrations using inexpensive slug tests that suggest reliable K NMR estimates for fractured rock may be achieved using limited calibration against borehole hydraulic measurements. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

Analysis of a mesoscale infiltration and water seepage test in unsaturated fractured rock: Spatial variabilities and discrete fracture patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhou, Q.; Salve, R.; Liu, H.-H.; Wang, J.S.Y.; Hudson, D.

2006-01-01

A mesoscale (21??m in flow distance) infiltration and seepage test was recently conducted in a deep, unsaturated fractured rock system at the crossover point of two underground tunnels. Water was released from a 3??m ?? 4??m infiltration plot on the floor of an alcove in the upper tunnel, and seepage was collected from the ceiling of a niche in the lower tunnel. Significant temporal and (particularly) spatial variabilities were observed in both measured infiltration and seepage rates. To analyze the test results, a three-dimensional unsaturated flow model was used. A column-based scheme was developed to capture heterogeneous hydraulic properties reflected by these spatial variabilities observed. Fracture permeability and van Genuchten ?? parameter [van Genuchten, M.T., 1980. A closed-form equation for predicting the hydraulic conductivity of unsaturated soils. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 44, 892-898] were calibrated for each rock column in the upper and lower hydrogeologic units in the test bed. The calibrated fracture properties for the infiltration and seepage zone enabled a good match between simulated and measured (spatially varying) seepage rates. The numerical model was also able to capture the general trend of the highly transient seepage processes through a discrete fracture network. The calibrated properties and measured infiltration/seepage rates were further compared with mapped discrete fracture patterns at the top and bottom boundaries. The measured infiltration rates and calibrated fracture permeability of the upper unit were found to be partially controlled by the fracture patterns on the infiltration plot (as indicated by their positive correlations with fracture density). However, no correlation could be established between measured seepage rates and density of fractures mapped on the niche ceiling. This lack of correlation indicates the complexity of (preferential) unsaturated flow within the discrete fracture network. This also indicates that continuum-based modeling of unsaturated flow in fractured rock at mesoscale or a larger scale is not necessarily conditional explicitly on discrete fracture patterns. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Calibration and Forward Uncertainty Propagation for Large-eddy Simulations of Engineering Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Templeton, Jeremy Alan; Blaylock, Myra L.; Domino, Stefan P.

2015-09-01

The objective of this work is to investigate the efficacy of using calibration strategies from Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) to determine model coefficients for LES. As the target methods are for engineering LES, uncertainty from numerical aspects of the model must also be quantified. 15 The ultimate goal of this research thread is to generate a cost versus accuracy curve for LES such that the cost could be minimized given an accuracy prescribed by an engineering need. Realization of this goal would enable LES to serve as a predictive simulation tool within the engineering design process.

Numerical simulation of the groundwater-flow system of the Kitsap Peninsula, west-central Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frans, Lonna M.; Olsen, Theresa D.

2016-05-05

A groundwater-flow model was developed to improve understanding of water resources on the Kitsap Peninsula. The Kitsap Peninsula is in the Puget Sound lowland of west-central Washington, is bounded by Puget Sound on the east and by Hood Canal on the west, and covers an area of about 575 square miles. The peninsula encompasses all of Kitsap County, Mason County north of Hood Canal, and part of Pierce County west of Puget Sound. The peninsula is surrounded by saltwater, and the hydrologic setting is similar to that of an island. The study area is underlain by a thick sequence of unconsolidated glacial and interglacial deposits that overlie sedimentary and volcanic bedrock units that crop out in the central part of the study area. Twelve hydrogeologic units consisting of aquifers, confining units, and an underlying bedrock unit form the basis of the groundwater-flow model.Groundwater flow on the Kitsap Peninsula was simulated using the groundwater-flow model, MODFLOW‑NWT. The finite difference model grid comprises 536 rows, 362 columns, and 14 layers. Each model cell has a horizontal dimension of 500 by 500 feet, and the model contains a total of 1,227,772 active cells. Groundwater flow was simulated for transient conditions. Transient conditions were simulated for January 1985–December 2012 using annual stress periods for 1985–2004 and monthly stress periods for 2005–2012. During model calibration, variables were adjusted within probable ranges to minimize differences between measured and simulated groundwater levels and stream baseflows. As calibrated to transient conditions, the model has a standard deviation for heads and flows of 47.04 feet and 2.46 cubic feet per second, respectively.Simulated inflow to the model area for the 2005–2012 period from precipitation and secondary recharge was 585,323 acre-feet per year (acre-ft/yr) (93 percent of total simulated inflow ignoring changes in storage), and simulated inflow from stream and lake leakage was 43,905 acre-ft/yr (7 percent of total simulated inflow). Simulated outflow from the model primarily was through discharge to streams, lakes, springs, seeps, and Puget Sound (594,595 acre-ft/yr; 95 percent of total simulated outflow excluding changes in storage) and through withdrawals from wells (30,761 acre-ft/yr; 5 percent of total simulated outflow excluding changes in storage).Six scenarios were formulated with input from project stakeholders and were simulated using the calibrated model to provide representative examples of how the model could be used to evaluate the effects on water levels and stream baseflows of potential changes in groundwater withdrawals, in consumptive use, and in recharge. These included simulations of a steady-state system, no-pumping and return flows, 15-percent increase in current withdrawals in all wells, 80-percent decrease in outdoor water to simulate effects of conservation efforts, 15-percent decrease in recharge from precipitation to simulate a drought, and particle tracking to determine flow paths.Changes in water-level altitudes and baseflow amounts vary depending on the stress applied to the system in these various scenarios. Reducing recharge by 15 percent between 2005 and 2012 had the largest effect, with water-level altitudes declining throughout the model domain and baseflow amounts decreasing by as much as 18 percent compared to baseline conditions. Changes in pumping volumes had a smaller effect on the model. Removing all pumping and resulting return flows caused increased water-level altitudes in many areas and increased baseflow amounts of between 1 and 3 percent.

Flow visualization studies of VTOL aircraft models during Hover in ground effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mourtos, Nikos J.; Couillaud, Stephane; Carter, Dale; Hange, Craig; Wardwell, Doug; Margason, Richard J.

1995-01-01

A flow visualization study of several configurations of a jet-powered vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) aircraft model during hover in ground effect was conducted. A surface oil flow technique was used to observe the flow patterns on the lower surfaces of the model. There were significant configuration effects. Wing height with respect to fuselage, the presence of an engine inlet duct beside the fuselage, and nozzle pressure ratio are seen to have strong effects on the surface flow angles on the lower surface of the wing. This test was part of a program to improve the methods for predicting the hot gas ingestion (HGI) for jet-powered vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) aircraft. The tests were performed at the Jet Calibration and Hover Test (JCAHT) Facility at Ames Research Center.

Calibration and field application of a Sierra Model 235 cascade impactor.

PubMed

Knuth, R H

1984-06-01

A Sierra Model 235 slotted impactor was used to measure the particle size distribution of ore dust in uranium concentrating mills. The impactor was calibrated at a flow rate of 0.21 m3/min, using solid monodisperse particles of methylene blue and an impaction surface of Whatman #41 filter paper soaked in mineral oil. The reduction from the impactor's design flow rate of 1.13 m3/min (40 cfm) to 0.21 m3/min (7.5 cfm), a necessary adjustment because of the anticipated large particles sizes of ore dust, increased the stage cut-off diameters by an average factor of 2.3. Evaluation of field test results revealed that the underestimation of mass median diameters, often caused by the rebound and reentrainment of solid particles from dry impaction surfaces, was virtually eliminated by using the oiled Whatman #41 impaction surface.

Regional groundwater characteristics and hydraulic conductivity based on geological units in Korean peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Suk, H.

2011-12-01

In this study, about 2,000 deep observation wells, stream and/or river distribution, and river's density were analyzed to identify regional groundwater flow trend, based on the regional groundwater survey of four major river watersheds including Geum river, Han river, Youngsan-Seomjin river, and Nakdong river in Korea. Hydrogeologial data were collected to analyze regional groundwater flow characteristics according to geological units. Additionally, hydrological soil type data were collected to estimate direct runoff through SCS-CN method. Temperature and precipitation data were used to quantify infiltration rate. The temperature and precipitation data were also used to quantify evaporation by Thornthwaite method and to evaluate groundwater recharge, respectively. Understanding the regional groundwater characteristics requires the database of groundwater flow parameters, but most hydrogeological data include limited information such as groundwater level and well configuration. In this study, therefore, groundwater flow parameters such as hydraulic conductivities or transmissivities were estimated using observed groundwater level by inverse model, namely PEST (Non-linear Parameter ESTimation). Since groundwater modeling studies have some uncertainties in data collection, conceptualization, and model results, model calibration should be performed. The calibration may be manually performed by changing parameters step by step, or various parameters are simultaneously changed by automatic procedure using PEST program. In this study, both manual and automatic procedures were employed to calibrate and estimate hydraulic parameter distributions. In summary, regional groundwater survey data obtained from four major river watersheds and various data of hydrology, meteorology, geology, soil, and topography in Korea were used to estimate hydraulic conductivities using PEST program. Especially, in order to estimate hydraulic conductivity effectively, it is important to perform in such a way that areas of same or similar hydrogeological characteristics should be grouped into zones. Keywords: regional groundwater, database, hydraulic conductivity, PEST, Korean peninsular Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Radioactive Waste Management of the Korea Institute of Energy Technology Evaluation and Planning (KETEP) grant funded by the Korea government Ministry of Knowledge Economy (2011T100200152)

Shock shapes on blunt bodies in hypersonic-hypervelocity helium, air, and CO2 flows, and calibration results in Langley 6-inch expansion tube

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, C. G., III

1975-01-01

Shock shape results for flat-faced cylinders, spheres, and spherically blunted cones in various test gases, along with preliminary results from a calibration study performed in the Langley 6-inch expansion tube are presented. Free-stream velocities from 5 to 7 km/sec are generated at hypersonic conditions with helium, air, and CO2, resulting in normal shock density ratios from 4 to 19. Ideal-gas shock shape predictions, in which an effective ratio of specific heats is used as input, are compared with the measured results. The effect of model diameter is examined to provide insight to the thermochemical state of the flow in the shock layer. The regime for which equilibrium exists in the shock layer for the present air and CO2 test conditions is defined. Test core flow quality, test repeatability, and comparison of measured and predicted expansion-tube flow quantities are discussed.

PowderSim: Lagrangian Discrete and Mesh-Free Continuum Simulation Code for Cohesive Soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Scott; Walton, Otis; Settgast, Randolph

2013-01-01

PowderSim is a calculation tool that combines a discrete-element method (DEM) module, including calibrated interparticle-interaction relationships, with a mesh-free, continuum, SPH (smoothed-particle hydrodynamics) based module that utilizes enhanced, calibrated, constitutive models capable of mimicking both large deformations and the flow behavior of regolith simulants and lunar regolith under conditions anticipated during in situ resource utilization (ISRU) operations. The major innovation introduced in PowderSim is to use a mesh-free method (SPH-based) with a calibrated and slightly modified critical-state soil mechanics constitutive model to extend the ability of the simulation tool to also address full-scale engineering systems in the continuum sense. The PowderSim software maintains the ability to address particle-scale problems, like size segregation, in selected regions with a traditional DEM module, which has improved contact physics and electrostatic interaction models.

Using an integrated approach between hydrological and crop models to assess surface water balance in ungauged basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negm, Amro; D'Agostino, Daniela; Lamaddalena, Nicola; Bacchi, Baldassare; Iacobellis, Vito

2013-04-01

In the last decades hydrological models have been extensively used in research fields in order to improve water balance assessment and to support integrated water resources management by quantifying the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. Due to complexity of the physical system, the mathematical models can generally represent and simulate only the basic components of the system. On the other hand, calibration and validation processes of the hydrological models in ungauged basins are still complex tasks, due to the lack of reliable methods and the uncertainty in representing the hydrological processes and the physical features of a basin. Therefore, in order to practically apply model's results, there is a continuous needing to assess their accuracy through the calibration and validation processes at gauged sites. In this context, an integrated approach is presented that couples a semi-distributed hydrological model called Distributed model for Runoff, Evapotranspiration, and Antecedent soil Moisture simulation (DREAM) with the FAO's Crop Water Productivity Simulation Model (AQUACROP). DREAM uses rainfall, Leaf Area Index (LAI) and potential evapotranspiration as inputs and streamflow, infiltration, real evapotranspiration, subsurface flow and deep percolation as outputs. Soil moisture content is accounted for as an internal variable. The simulations were done for Lama San Giorgio, a basin located in a wadi area in the central part of Apulia region (Southern Italy) for the period 2001-2005 and the meadow is mainly covered by durum wheat. According to ACLA2 project survey (Caliandro et al., 2005), the depth of the soil upper layers is about 80 cm. Calibration and validation of the DREAM model were carried out by assessing an accurate estimation of soil water content using AQUACROP model which is a more detailed model in terms of soil water dynamics. Instead, one of the most significant features of DREAM model is the evaluation of lateral flow exchanges by means of a redistribution function weighted by the wetness index. The calibration process was done by adjusting a specific parameter of the water balance, the subsurface flow (through a subsurface flow coefficient C), by exploiting the results of soil moisture content provided by AQUACROP model. Then, the outputs of daily soil water content obtained by DREAM model were compared with the estimations of soil behaviour provided by the AQUACROP model. The simulations were done for a certain number of cells in the study area, for different years. The chosen factors were used to obtain an average value of C in time and space, which in this study is equal to 0.5. Finally, the results of the DREAM model in terms of evapotranspiration provided a satisfactory approximation of those obtained by AQUACROP model, while the Canopy Cover, an output of AQUACROP, was compared with the LAI used as input for the DREAM model.

Regional rainfall-runoff relations for simulation of streamflow for watersheds in Du Page County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duncker, James J.; Melching, Charles S.

1998-01-01

Rainfall and streamflow data collected from July 1986 through September 1993 were utilized to calibrate and verify a continuous-simulation rainfall-runoff model for three watersheds (11.8--18.0 square miles in area) in Du Page County. Classification of land cover into three categories of pervious (grassland, forest/wetland, and agricultural land) and one category of impervious subareas was sufficient to accurately simulate the rainfall-runoff relations for the three watersheds. Regional parameter sets were obtained by calibrating jointly all parameters except fraction of ground-water inflow that goes to inactive ground water (DEEPFR), interflow recession constant (IRC), and infiltration (INFILT) for runoff from all three watersheds. DEEPFR and IRC varied among the watersheds because of physical differences among the watersheds. Two values of INFILT were obtained: one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty and clayey soils on the uplands and lake plains that characterize Sawmill Creek, St. Joseph Creek, and eastern Du Page County; and one representing the rainfall-runoff process on the silty soils on uplands that characterize Kress Creek and parts of western Du Page County. Regional rainfall-runoff relations, defined through joint calibration of the rainfall-runoff model and verified for independent periods, presented in this report, allow estimation of runoff for watersheds in Du Page County with an error in the total water balance less than 4.0 percent; an average absolute error in the annual-flow estimates of 17.1 percent with the error rarely exceeding 25 percent for annual flows; and correlation coefficients and coefficients of model-fit efficiency for monthly flows of at least 87 and 76 percent, respectively. Close reproduction of the runoff-volume duration curves was obtained. A frequency analysis of storm-runoff volume indicates a tendency of the model to undersimulate large storms, which may result from underestimation of the amount of impervious land cover in the watershed and errors in measuring rainfall for convective storms. Overall, the results of regional calibration and verification of the rainfall-runoff model indicate the simulated rainfall-runoff relations are adequate for stormwater-management planning and design for watersheds in Du Page County.

Development of Automatic Control of Bayer Plant Digestion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riffaud, J. P.

Supervisory computer control has been achieved in Alcan's Bayer Plants at Arvida, Quebec, Canada. The purpose of the automatic control system is to stabilize and consequently increase, the alumina/caustic ratio within the digester train and in the blow-off liquor. Measurements of the electrical conductivity of the liquor are obtained from electrodeless conductivity meters. These signals, along with several others are scanned by the computer and converted to engineering units, using specific relationships which are updated periodically for calibration purposes. On regular time intervals, values of ratio are compared to target values and adjustments are made to the bauxite flow entering the digesters. Dead time compensation included in the control algorithm enables a faster rate for corrections. Modification of production rate is achieved through careful timing of various flow changes. Calibration of the conductivity meters is achieved by sampling at intervals the liquor flowing through them, and analysing it with a thermometric titrator. Calibration of the thermometric titrator is done at intervals with a standard solution. Calculations for both calibrations are performed by computer from data entered by the analyst. The computer was used for on-line data collection, modelling of the digester system, calculation of disturbances and simulation of control strategies before implementing the most successful strategy in the Plant. Control of ratio has been improved by the integrated system, resulting in increased Plant productivity.

Evaluation of hydrocarbon flow standard facility equipped with double-wing diverter using four types of working liquids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doihara, R.; Shimada, T.; Cheong, K. H.; Terao, Y.

2017-06-01

A flow calibration facility based on the gravimetric method using a double-wing diverter for hydrocarbon flows from 0.1 m3 h-1 to 15 m3 h-1 was constructed as a national measurement standard in Japan. The original working liquids were kerosene and light oil. The calibration facility was modified to calibrate flowmeters with two additional working liquids, industrial gasoline (flash point  >  40 °C) and spindle oil, to achieve calibration over a wide viscosity range at the same calibration test rig. The kinematic viscosity range is 1.2 mm2 s-1 to 24 mm2 s-1. The contributions to the measurement uncertainty due to different types of working liquids were evaluated experimentally in this study. The evaporation error was reduced by using a seal system at the weighing tank inlet. The uncertainty due to droplets from the diverter wings was reduced by a modified diverter operation. The diverter timing errors for all types of working liquids were estimated. The expanded uncertainties for the calibration facility were estimated to be 0.020% for mass flow and 0.030% for volumetric flow for all considered types of liquids. Internal comparisons with other calibration facilities were also conducted, and the agreement was confirmed to be within the claimed expanded uncertainties.

Modeling pesticide loadings from the San Joaquin watershed into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta using SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H.; Zhang, M.

2016-12-01

The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is an ecologically rich, hydrologically complex area that serves as the hub of California's water supply. However, pesticides have been routinely detected in the Delta waterways, with concentrations exceeding the benchmark for the protection of aquatic life. Pesticide loadings into the Delta are partially attributed to the San Joaquin watershed, a highly productive agricultural watershed located upstream. Therefore, this study aims to simulate pesticide loadings to the Delta by applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to the San Joaquin watershed, under the support of the USDA-ARS Delta Area-Wide Pest Management Program. Pesticide use patterns in the San Joaquin watershed were characterized by combining the California Pesticide Use Reporting (PUR) database and GIS analysis. Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses and multi-site calibration were performed in the simulation of stream flow, sediment, and pesticide loads along the San Joaquin River. Model performance was evaluated using a combination of graphic and quantitative measures. Preliminary results indicated that stream flow was satisfactorily simulated along the San Joaquin River and the major eastern tributaries, whereas stream flow was less accurately simulated in the western tributaries, which are ephemeral small streams that peak during winter storm events and are mainly fed by irrigation return flow during the growing season. The most sensitive parameters to stream flow were CN2, SOL_AWC, HRU_SLP, SLSUBBSN, SLSOIL, GWQMN and GW_REVAP. Regionalization of parameters is important as the sensitivity of parameters vary significantly spatially. In terms of evaluation metric, NSE tended to overrate model performance when compared to PBIAS. Anticipated results will include (1) pesticide use pattern analysis, (2) calibration and validation of stream flow, sediment, and pesticide loads, and (3) characterization of spatial patterns and temporal trends of pesticide yield.

Calibration of diffuse correlation spectroscopy blood flow index with venous-occlusion diffuse optical spectroscopy in skeletal muscle

PubMed Central

Li, Zhe; Baker, Wesley B.; Parthasarathy, Ashwin B.; Ko, Tiffany S.; Wang, Detian; Schenkel, Steven; Durduran, Turgut; Li, Gang; Yodh, Arjun G.

2015-01-01

Abstract. We investigate and assess the utility of a simple scheme for continuous absolute blood flow monitoring based on diffuse correlation spectroscopy (DCS). The scheme calibrates DCS using venous-occlusion diffuse optical spectroscopy (VO-DOS) measurements of arm muscle tissue at a single time-point. A calibration coefficient (γ) for the arm is determined, permitting conversion of DCS blood flow indices to absolute blood flow units, and a study of healthy adults (N=10) is carried out to ascertain the variability of γ. The average DCS calibration coefficient for the right (i.e., dominant) arm was γ=(1.24±0.15)×108 (mL·100  mL−1·min−1)/(cm2/s). However, variability can be significant and is apparent in our site-to-site and day-to-day repeated measurements. The peak hyperemic blood flow overshoot relative to baseline resting flow was also studied following arm-cuff ischemia; excellent agreement between VO-DOS and DCS was found (R2=0.95, slope=0.94±0.07, mean difference=−0.10±0.45). Finally, we show that incorporation of subject-specific absolute optical properties significantly improves blood flow calibration accuracy. PMID:26720870

Generating A Strobed Laser Light Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leighty, Bradley D.; Franke, John M.; Rhodes, David B.; Jones, Stephen B.

1994-01-01

An optoelectronic system generating synchronous, strobed sheet of laser light developed for use in making visible flow of air about model helicopter rotor. Used in wind-tunnel tests to determine actual locations of vortices for comparison with locations predicted by mathematical models to validate models. Each blade tip produces vortex. By establishing successive vortex locations, researcher determines trajectory of vortex pattern. Light-sheet strobe circuits provide selection of blade positions, strobe-pulse durations, and multiple pulses per revolution for rotors having two to nine blades. To make flow visible, vaporizing propylene glycol injected upstream of model. System also provides calibrated trigger delay of strobe pulses, adjustable strobe-pulse durations, selectable number of blades, and slip-sync mode to make flow visible as though in slow motion.

RANS Based Methodology for Predicting the Influence of Leading Edge Erosion on Airfoil Performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Langel, Christopher M.; Chow, Raymond C.; van Dam, C. P.

The impact of surface roughness on flows over aerodynamically designed surfaces is of interested in a number of different fields. It has long been known the surface roughness will likely accelerate the laminar- turbulent transition process by creating additional disturbances in the boundary layer. However, there are very few tools available to predict the effects surface roughness will have on boundary layer flow. There are numerous implications of the premature appearance of a turbulent boundary layer. Increases in local skin friction, boundary layer thickness, and turbulent mixing can impact global flow properties compounding the effects of surface roughness. With thismore » motivation, an investigation into the effects of surface roughness on boundary layer transition has been conducted. The effort involved both an extensive experimental campaign, and the development of a high fidelity roughness model implemented in a R ANS solver. Vast a mounts of experimental data was generated at the Texas A&M Oran W. Nicks Low Speed Wind Tunnel for the calibration and validation of the roughness model described in this work, as well as future efforts. The present work focuses on the development of the computational model including a description of the calibration process. The primary methodology presented introduces a scalar field variable and associated transport equation that interacts with a correlation based transition model. The additional equation allows for non-local effects of surface roughness to be accounted for downstream of rough wall sections while maintaining a "local" formulation. The scalar field is determined through a boundary condition function that has been calibrated to flat plate cases with sand grain roughness. The model was initially tested on a NACA 0012 airfoil with roughness strips applied to the leading edge. Further calibration of the roughness model was performed using results from the companion experimental study on a NACA 63 3 -418 airfoil. The refined model demonstrates favorable agreement predicting changes to the transition location, as well as drag, for a number of different leading edge roughness configurations on the NACA 63 3-418 airfoil. Additional tests were conducted on a thicker S814 airfoil, with similar roughness configurations to the NACA 63 3-418. Simulations run with the roughness model compare favorably with the results obtained in the experimental study for both airfoils.« less

Simulation of aquifer tests and ground-water flowpaths at the local scale in fractured shales and sandstones of the Brunswick Group and Lockatong Formation, Lansdale, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, as part of technical assistance to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, has constructed and calibrated models of local-scale ground-water flow in and near Lansdale, Pa., where numerous sources of industrial contamination have been consolidated into the North Penn Area 6 Superfund Site. The local-scale models incorporate hydrogeologic structure of northwest-dipping beds with uniform hydraulic properties identified in previous studies. Computations associated with mapping the dipping-bed structure into the three-dimensional model grid are handled by a preprocessor using a programmed geographic information system (GIS). Hydraulic properties are identified by calibration of the models using measured water levels during pumping and recovery from aquifer tests at three sites. Reduced flow across low-permeability beds is explicitly simulated. The dipping high-permeability beds are extensive in the strike direction but are of limited extent in the dip direction. This model structure yields ground-water-flow patterns characteristic of anisotropic aquifers; preferred flow is in the strike direction. The transmissivities of high-permeability beds in the local-scale models range from 142 to 1,900 ft2/d (feet squared per day) (13 to 177 m2/d). The hydraulic conductivities of low-permeability parts of the aquifer range from 9.6 x 10-4 to 0.26 ft/d (feet per day) (2.9 x 10-4 to 0.079 m/d). Storage coefficients and specific storage are very low, indicating the confined nature of the aquifer system. The calibrated models are used to simulate contributing areas of wells under alternative, hypothetical ground-water-management practices. Predictive contributing areas indicate the general characteristics of ground-water flow towards wells in the Lansdale area. Recharge to wells in Lansdale generally comes from infiltration near the well and over an area that extends upgradient from the well. The contributing areas for two wells pumping at 10 gal/min (gallons per minute) extend about 1,500 ft (feet) upgradient from the wells. The contributing area is more complex at ground-water divides and can extend in more than one direction to capture recharge from more than 3,300 ft away, for pumping at a rate of 30 gal/min. Locally, all recharge in the area of the pumping well is not captured; recharge in the downgradient direction about 150 ft from the pumping well will flow to other discharge locations.

Simulation of Regional Ground-Water Flow in the Suwannee River Basin, Northern Florida and Southern Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Planert, Michael

2007-01-01

The Suwannee River Basin covers a total of nearly 9,950 square miles in north-central Florida and southern Georgia. In Florida, the Suwannee River Basin accounts for 4,250 square miles of north-central Florida. Evaluating the impacts of increased development in the Suwannee River Basin requires a quantitative understanding of the boundary conditions, hydrogeologic framework and hydraulic properties of the Floridan aquifer system, and the dynamics of water exchanges between the Suwannee River and its tributaries and the Floridan aquifer system. Major rivers within the Suwannee River Basin are the Suwannee, Santa Fe, Alapaha, and Withlacoochee. Four rivers west of the Suwannee River are the Aucilla, the Econfina, the Fenholloway, and the Steinhatchee; all drain to the Gulf of Mexico. Perhaps the most notable aspect of the surface-water hydrology of the study area is that large areas east of the Suwannee River are devoid of channelized, surface drainage; consequently, most of the drainage occurs through the subsurface. The ground-water flow system underlying the study area plays a critical role in the overall hydrology of this region of Florida because of the dominance of subsurface drain-age, and because ground-water flow sustains the flow of the rivers and springs. Three principal hydrogeologic units are present in the study area: the surficial aquifer system, the intermediate aquifer system, and the Floridan aquifer system. The surficial aquifer system principally consists of unconsoli-dated to poorly indurated siliciclastic deposits. The intermediate aquifer system, which contains the intermediate confining unit, lies below the surficial aquifer system (where present), and generally consists of fine-grained, uncon-solidated deposits of quartz sand, silt, and clay with interbedded limestone of Miocene age. Regionally, the intermediate aquifer system and intermediate con-fining unit act as a confining unit that restricts the exchange of water between the over-lying surficial and underlying Upper Floridan aquifers. The Upper Floridan aquifer is present throughout the study area and is extremely permeable and typically capable of transmitting large volumes of water. This high permeability largely is due to the widening of fractures and formation of conduits within the aquifer through dissolu-tion of the limestone by infiltrating water. This process has also produced numerous karst features such as springs, sinking streams, and sinkholes. A model of the Upper Floridan aquifer was created to better understand the ground-water system and to provide resource managers a tool to evaluate ground-water and surface-water interactions in the Suwannee River Basin. The model was developed to simulate a single Upper Floridan aquifer layer. Recharge datasets were developed to represent a net flux of water to the top of the aquifer or the water table during a period when the system was assumed to be under steady-state conditions (September 1990). A potentiometric-surface map representing water levels during September 1990 was prepared for the Suwannee River Water Management District (SRWMD), and the heads from those wells were used for calibration of the model. Additionally, flows at gaging sites for the Suwannee, Alapaha, Withlacoochee, Santa Fe, Fenholloway, Aucilla, Ecofina, and Steinhatchee Rivers were used during the calibration process to compare to model computed flows. Flows at seven first-magnitude springs selected by the SRWMD also were used to calibrate the model. Calibration criterion for matching potentiometric heads was to attain an absolute residual mean error of 5 percent or less of the head gradient of the system which would be about 5 feet. An absolute residual mean error of 4.79 feet was attained for final calibration. Calibration criterion for matching streamflow was based on the quality of measurements made in the field. All measurements used were rated ?good,? so the desire was for simulated values to be wi

Calibration and verification of a rainfall-runoff model and a runoff-quality model for several urban basins in the Denver metropolitan area, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindner-Lunsford, J. B.; Ellis, S.R.

1984-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey 's Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model--Version II was calibrated and verified for five urban basins in the Denver metropolitan area. Land-use types in the basins were light commerical, multifamily housing, single-family housing, and a shopping center. The overall accuracy of model predictions of peak flows and runoff volumes was about 15 percent for storms with rainfall intensities of less than 1 inch per hour and runoff volume of greater than 0.01 inch. Predictions generally were unsatisfactory for storm having a rainfall intensity of more than 1 inch per hour, or runoff of 0.01 inch or less. The Distributed Routing Rainfall-Runoff Model-Quality, a multievent runoff-quality model developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was calibrated and verified on four basins. The model was found to be most useful in the prediction of seasonal loads of constituents in the runoff resulting from rainfall. The model was not very accurate in the prediction of runoff loads of individual constituents. (USGS)

Precipitation forecasts for rainfall runoff predictions. A case study in poorly gauged Ribb and Gumara catchments, upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, Mesgana; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Xuan, Yunqing; Amare, Kibreab

Flow forecasting in poorly gauged, flood-prone Ribb and Gumara sub-catchments of the Blue Nile was studied with the aim of testing the performance of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs). Four types of QPFs namely MM5 forecasts with a spatial resolution of 2 km; the Maximum, Mean and Minimum members (MaxEPS, MeanEPS and MinEPS where EPS stands for Ensemble Prediction System) of the fixed, low resolution (2.5 by 2.5 degrees) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System (NOAA GFS) ensemble forecasts were used. Both the MM5 and the EPS were not calibrated (bias correction, downscaling (for EPS), etc.). In addition, zero forecasts assuming no rainfall in the coming days, and monthly average forecasts assuming average monthly rainfall in the coming days, were used. These rainfall forecasts were then used to drive the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s-Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS, hydrologic model for flow predictions. The results show that flow predictions using MaxEPS and MM5 precipitation forecasts over-predicted the peak flow for most of the seven events analyzed, whereas under-predicted peak flow was found using zero- and monthly average rainfall. The comparison of observed and predicted flow hydrographs shows that MM5, MaxEPS and MeanEPS precipitation forecasts were able to capture the rainfall signal that caused peak flows. Flow predictions based on MaxEPS and MeanEPS gave results that were quantitatively close to the observed flow for most events, whereas flow predictions based on MM5 resulted in large overestimations for some events. In follow-up research for this particular case study, calibration of the MM5 model will be performed. The overall analysis shows that freely available atmospheric forecasting products can provide additional information on upcoming rainfall and peak flow events in areas where only base-line forecasts such as no-rainfall or climatology are available.

Calibration and use of filter test facility orifice plates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fain, D. E.; Selby, T. W.

1984-07-01

There are three official DOE filter test facilities. These test facilities are used by the DOE, and others, to test nuclear grade HEPA filters to provide Quality Assurance that the filters meet the required specifications. The filters are tested for both filter efficiency and pressure drop. In the test equipment, standard orifice plates are used to set the specified flow rates for the tests. There has existed a need to calibrate the orifice plates from the three facilities with a common calibration source to assure that the facilities have comparable tests. A project has been undertaken to calibrate these orifice plates. In addition to reporting the results of the calibrations of the orifice plates, the means for using the calibration results will be discussed. A comparison of the orifice discharge coefficients for the orifice plates used at the seven facilities will be given. The pros and cons for the use of mass flow or volume flow rates for testing will be discussed. It is recommended that volume flow rates be used as a more practical and comparable means of testing filters. The rationale for this recommendation will be discussed.

State of charge monitoring of vanadium redox flow batteries using half cell potentials and electrolyte density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ressel, Simon; Bill, Florian; Holtz, Lucas; Janshen, Niklas; Chica, Antonio; Flower, Thomas; Weidlich, Claudia; Struckmann, Thorsten

2018-02-01

The operation of vanadium redox flow batteries requires reliable in situ state of charge (SOC) monitoring. In this study, two SOC estimation approaches for the negative half cell are investigated. First, in situ open circuit potential measurements are combined with Coulomb counting in a one-step calibration of SOC and Nernst potential which doesn't need additional reference SOCs. In-sample and out-of-sample SOCs are estimated and analyzed, estimation errors ≤ 0.04 are obtained. In the second approach, temperature corrected in situ electrolyte density measurements are used for the first time in vanadium redox flow batteries for SOC estimation. In-sample and out-of-sample SOC estimation errors ≤ 0.04 demonstrate the feasibility of this approach. Both methods allow recalibration during battery operation. The actual capacity obtained from SOC calibration can be used in a state of health model.

Trail Creek II: Modeling Flow and E. Coli Concentrations in a Small Urban Stream using SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radcliffe, D. E.; Saintil, T.

2017-12-01

Pathogens are one of the leading causes of stream and river impairment in the State of Georgia. The common presence of fecal bacteria is driven by several factors including rapid population growth stressing pre-existing and ageing infrastructure, urbanization and poor planning, increase percent imperviousness, urban runoff, municipal discharges, sewage, pet/wildlife waste and leaky septic tanks. The Trail Creek watershed, located in Athens-Clarke County, Georgia covers about 33 km2. Stream segments within Trail Creek violate the GA standard due to high levels of fecal coliform bacteria. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling software was used to predict E. coli bacteria concentrations during baseflow and stormflow. Census data from the county was used for human and animal population estimates and the Fecal Indicator Tool to generate the number of colony forming units of E. Coli for each source. The model was calibrated at a daily time step with one year of monitored streamflow and E. coli bacteria data using SWAT-CUP and the SUFI2 algorithm. To simulate leaking sewer lines, we added point sources in the five subbasins in the SWAT model with the greatest length of sewer line within 50 m of the stream. The flow in the point sources were set to 5% of the stream flow and the bacteria count set to that of raw sewage (30,000 cfu/100 mL). The calibrated model showed that the average load during 2003-2013 at the watershed outlet was 13 million cfu per month. Using the calibrated model, we simulated scenarios that assumed leaking sewers were repaired in one of the five subbasins with point sources. The reduction ranged from 10 to 46%, with the largest reduction in subbasin in the downtown area. Future modeling work will focus on the use of green infrastructure to address sources of bacteria.

A Transient Groundwater Flow Model for Evaluating River-Aquifer Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanini, A.; Chelli, A.; Pecoraro, R.; Celico, F.

2014-12-01

The study area is an industrial site (in the North of Italy) contaminated through heavy metal and chlorinated hydrocarbons. The site presents an area of about 5 km2 and a complex geology. During 2013 and 2014 the hydrogeological conceptual model was reviewed and the result was a main unconfined aquifer that presents an impervious bottom at about 30 m below ground. A small portion of the aquifer is split by a non-continuous aquitard. Below the impervious bottom, there are confined aquifers that are not polluted. The boundary conditions of the aquifer are constant head upstream (obtained from a regional piezometry) and constant head downstream that represents a lake stage. Moreover a river inside the study area, that could feed or dry the aquifer depending on its stage, manages the groundwater head levels. The study area presents more than 100 pumping wells that have the objective of realizing a hydraulic barrier and to prevent the flow of pollutants downstream. The area is monitored with about 120 monitoring wells, which are used, through a periodic sampling and monitoring, to control the pollution and to estimate the flow direction. During the last year a numerical flow model has been developed by means of MODFLOW 2000 (Harbaugh, 2000) with the aim at becoming a management tool of the hydraulic barrier. The calibration procedure, initially, was performed in steady state condition using the PEST procedure (Doherty, 2007). The goal was to reproduce the monthly observations at the monitoring wells varying the hydraulic conductivity of the main aquifer and of the aquitard. The second step of the calibration was the extension of the calibration to transient data. The period from September 1st 2013 to June 31st 2014 was reproduced. In order to avoid problem with the starting conditions only the observations collected in 2014 were used to estimate the aquifer parameters. The period September 1st 2013 to December 31st was used as warm up in order to obtain reliable starting conditions for the 2014. The result of the work was a model that allows to reproduce with high reliability the collected observations and to understand the groundwater flow direction depending on the river stage.

Regional statistical assessment of WRF-Hydro and IFC Model stream Flow uncertainties over the State of Iowa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ElSaadani, M.; Quintero, F.; Goska, R.; Krajewski, W. F.; Lahmers, T.; Small, S.; Gochis, D. J.

2015-12-01

This study examines the performance of different Hydrologic models in estimating peak flows over the state of Iowa. In this study I will compare the output of the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) hydrologic model and WRF-Hydro (NFIE configuration) to the observed flows at the USGS stream gauges. During the National Flood Interoperability Experiment I explored the performance of WRF-Hydro over the state of Iowa using different rainfall products and the resulting hydrographs showed a "flashy" behavior of the model output due to lack of calibration and bad initial flows due to short model spin period. I would like to expand this study by including a second well established hydrologic model and include more rain gauge vs. radar rainfall direct comparisons. The IFC model is expected to outperform WRF-Hydro's out of the box results, however, I will test different calibration options for both the Noah-MP land surface model and RAPID, which is the routing component of the NFIE-Hydro configuration, to see if this will improve the model results. This study will explore the statistical structure of model output uncertainties across scales (as a function of drainage areas and/or stream orders). I will also evaluate the performance of different radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) products (e.g. Stage IV, MRMS and IFC's NEXRAD based radar rainfall product. Different basins will be evaluated in this study and they will be selected based on size, amount of rainfall received over the basin area and location. Basin location will be an important factor in this study due to our prior knowledge of the performance of different NEXRAD radars that cover the region, this will help observe the effect of rainfall biases on stream flows. Another possible addition to this study is to apply controlled spatial error fields to rainfall inputs and observer the propagation of these errors through the stream network.

Comparison of Estimated Areas Contributing Recharge to Selected Springs in North-Central Florida by Using Multiple Ground-Water Flow Models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shoemaker, W. Barclay; O'Reilly, Andrew M.; Sepúlveda, Nicasio; Williams, Stanley A.; Motz, Louis H.; Sun, Qing

2004-01-01

Areas contributing recharge to springs are defined in this report as the land-surface area wherein water entering the ground-water system at the water table eventually discharges to a spring. These areas were delineated for Blue Spring, Silver Springs, Alexander Springs, and Silver Glen Springs in north-central Florida using four regional ground-water flow models and particle tracking. As expected, different models predicted different areas contributing recharge. In general, the differences were due to different hydrologic stresses, subsurface permeability properties, and boundary conditions that were used to calibrate each model, all of which are considered to be equally feasible because each model matched its respective calibration data reasonably well. To evaluate the agreement of the models and to summarize results, areas contributing recharge to springs from each model were combined into composite areas. During 1993-98, the composite areas contributing recharge to Blue Spring, Silver Springs, Alexander Springs, and Silver Glen Springs were about 130, 730, 110, and 120 square miles, respectively. The composite areas for all springs remained about the same when using projected 2020 ground-water withdrawals.

Coupling machine learning with mechanistic models to study runoff production and river flow at the hillslope scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marçais, J.; Gupta, H. V.; De Dreuzy, J. R.; Troch, P. A. A.

2016-12-01

Geomorphological structure and geological heterogeneity of hillslopes are major controls on runoff responses. The diversity of hillslopes (morphological shapes and geological structures) on one hand, and the highly non linear runoff mechanism response on the other hand, make it difficult to transpose what has been learnt at one specific hillslope to another. Therefore, making reliable predictions on runoff appearance or river flow for a given hillslope is a challenge. Applying a classic model calibration (based on inverse problems technique) requires doing it for each specific hillslope and having some data available for calibration. When applied to thousands of cases it cannot always be promoted. Here we propose a novel modeling framework based on coupling process based models with data based approach. First we develop a mechanistic model, based on hillslope storage Boussinesq equations (Troch et al. 2003), able to model non linear runoff responses to rainfall at the hillslope scale. Second we set up a model database, representing thousands of non calibrated simulations. These simulations investigate different hillslope shapes (real ones obtained by analyzing 5m digital elevation model of Brittany and synthetic ones), different hillslope geological structures (i.e. different parametrizations) and different hydrologic forcing terms (i.e. different infiltration chronicles). Then, we use this model library to train a machine learning model on this physically based database. Machine learning model performance is then assessed by a classic validating phase (testing it on new hillslopes and comparing machine learning with mechanistic outputs). Finally we use this machine learning model to learn what are the hillslope properties controlling runoffs. This methodology will be further tested combining synthetic datasets with real ones.

Python tools for rapid development, calibration, and analysis of generalized groundwater-flow models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starn, J. J.; Belitz, K.

2014-12-01

National-scale water-quality data sets for the United States have been available for several decades; however, groundwater models to interpret these data are available for only a small percentage of the country. Generalized models may be adequate to explain and project groundwater-quality trends at the national scale by using regional scale models (defined as watersheds at or between the HUC-6 and HUC-8 levels). Coast-to-coast data such as the National Hydrologic Dataset Plus (NHD+) make it possible to extract the basic building blocks for a model anywhere in the country. IPython notebooks have been developed to automate the creation of generalized groundwater-flow models from the NHD+. The notebook format allows rapid testing of methods for model creation, calibration, and analysis. Capabilities within the Python ecosystem greatly speed up the development and testing of algorithms. GeoPandas is used for very efficient geospatial processing. Raster processing includes the Geospatial Data Abstraction Library and image processing tools. Model creation is made possible through Flopy, a versatile input and output writer for several MODFLOW-based flow and transport model codes. Interpolation, integration, and map plotting included in the standard Python tool stack also are used, making the notebook a comprehensive platform within on to build and evaluate general models. Models with alternative boundary conditions, number of layers, and cell spacing can be tested against one another and evaluated by using water-quality data. Novel calibration criteria were developed by comparing modeled heads to land-surface and surface-water elevations. Information, such as predicted age distributions, can be extracted from general models and tested for its ability to explain water-quality trends. Groundwater ages then can be correlated with horizontal and vertical hydrologic position, a relation that can be used for statistical assessment of likely groundwater-quality conditions. Convolution with age distributions can be used to quickly ascertain likely future water-quality conditions. Although these models are admittedly very general and are still being tested, the hope is that they will be useful for answering questions related to water quality at the regional scale.

Modeling complex aquifer systems: a case study in Baton Rouge, Louisiana (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, Hai V.; Tsai, Frank T.-C.

2017-05-01

This study targets two challenges in groundwater model development: grid generation and model calibration for aquifer systems that are fluvial in origin. Realistic hydrostratigraphy can be developed using a large quantity of well log data to capture the complexity of an aquifer system. However, generating valid groundwater model grids to be consistent with the complex hydrostratigraphy is non-trivial. Model calibration can also become intractable for groundwater models that intend to match the complex hydrostratigraphy. This study uses the Baton Rouge aquifer system, Louisiana (USA), to illustrate a technical need to cope with grid generation and model calibration issues. A grid generation technique is introduced based on indicator kriging to interpolate 583 wireline well logs in the Baton Rouge area to derive a hydrostratigraphic architecture with fine vertical discretization. Then, an upscaling procedure is developed to determine a groundwater model structure with 162 layers that captures facies geometry in the hydrostratigraphic architecture. To handle model calibration for such a large model, this study utilizes a derivative-free optimization method in parallel computing to complete parameter estimation in a few months. The constructed hydrostratigraphy indicates the Baton Rouge aquifer system is fluvial in origin. The calibration result indicates hydraulic conductivity for Miocene sands is higher than that for Pliocene to Holocene sands and indicates the Baton Rouge fault and the Denham Springs-Scotlandville fault to be low-permeability leaky aquifers. The modeling result shows significantly low groundwater level in the "2,000-foot" sand due to heavy pumping, indicating potential groundwater upward flow from the "2,400-foot" sand.

Research yields precise uncertainty equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, E.H.; Ferguson, K.R.

1987-08-03

Results of a study of orifice-meter accuracy by Chevron Oil Field Research Co. at its Venice, La., calibration facility have important implications for natural gas custody-transfer measurement. The calibration facility, data collection, and equipment calibration were described elsewhere. This article explains the derivation of uncertainty factors and details the study's findings. The results were based on calibration of two 16-in. orifice-meter runs. The experimental data cover a beta-ratio range of from 0.27 to 0.71 and a Reynolds number range of from 4,000,000 to 35,000,000. Discharge coefficients were determined by comparing the orifice flow to the flow from critical-flow nozzles.

External Peer Review Team Report Underground Testing Area Subproject for Frenchman Flat, Revision 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sam Marutzky

2010-09-01

An external peer review was conducted to review the groundwater models used in the corrective action investigation stage of the Underground Test Area (UGTA) subproject to forecast zones of potential contamination in 1,000 years for the Frenchman Flat area. The goal of the external peer review was to provide technical evaluation of the studies and to assist in assessing the readiness of the UGTA subproject to progress to monitoring activities for further model evaluation. The external peer review team consisted of six independent technical experts with expertise in geology, hydrogeology,'''groundwater modeling, and radiochemistry. The peer review team was tasked withmore » addressing the following questions: 1. Are the modeling approaches, assumptions, and model results for Frenchman Flat consistent with the use of modeling studies as a decision tool for resolution of environmental and regulatory requirements? 2. Do the modeling results adequately account for uncertainty in models of flow and transport in the Frenchman Flat hydrological setting? a. Are the models of sufficient scale/resolution to adequately predict contaminant transport in the Frenchman Flat setting? b. Have all key processes been included in the model? c. Are the methods used to forecast contaminant boundaries from the transport modeling studies reasonable and appropriate? d. Are the assessments of uncertainty technically sound and consistent with state-of-the-art approaches currently used in the hydrological sciences? 3. Are the datasets and modeling results adequate for a transition to Corrective Action Unit monitoring studies—the next stage in the UGTA strategy for Frenchman Flat? The peer review team is of the opinion that, with some limitations, the modeling approaches, assumptions, and model results are consistent with the use of modeling studies for resolution of environmental and regulatory requirements. The peer review team further finds that the modeling studies have accounted for uncertainty in models of flow and transport in the Frenchman Flat except for a few deficiencies described in the report. Finally, the peer review team concludes that the UGTA subproject has explored a wide range of variations in assumptions, methods, and data, and should proceed to the next stage with an emphasis on monitoring studies. The corrective action strategy, as described in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order, states that the groundwater flow and transport models for each corrective action unit will consider, at a minimum, the following: • Alternative hydrostratigraphic framework models of the modeling domain. • Uncertainty in the radiological and hydrological source terms. • Alternative models of recharge. • Alternative boundary conditions and groundwater flows. • Multiple permissive sets of calibrated flow models. • Probabilistic simulations of transport using plausible sets of alternative framework and recharge models, and boundary and groundwater flows from calibrated flow models. • Ensembles of forecasts of contaminant boundaries. • Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of model outputs. The peer review team finds that these minimum requirements have been met. While the groundwater modeling and uncertainty analyses have been quite detailed, the peer review team has identified several modeling-related issues that should be addressed in the next phase of the corrective action activities: • Evaluating and using water-level gradients from the pilot wells at the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site in model calibration. • Re-evaluating the use of geochemical age-dating data to constrain model calibrations. • Developing water budgets for the alluvial and upper volcanic aquifer systems in Frenchman Flat. • Considering modeling approaches in which calculated groundwater flow directions near the water table are not predetermined by model boundary conditions and areas of recharge, all of which are very uncertain. • Evaluating local-scale variations in hydraulic conductivity on the calculated contaminant boundaries. • Evaluating the effects of non-steady-state flow conditions on calculated contaminant boundaries, including the effects of long-term declines in water levels, climatic change, and disruption of groundwater system by potential earthquake faulting along either of the two major controlling fault zones in the flow system (the Cane Spring and Rock Valley faults). • Considering the use of less-complex modeling approaches. • Evaluating the large change in water levels in the vicinity of the Frenchman Flat playa and developing a conceptual model to explain these water-level changes. • Developing a long-term groundwater level monitoring program for Frenchman Flat with regular monitoring of water levels at key monitoring wells. Despite these reservations, the peer review team strongly believes that the UGTA subproject should proceed to the next stage.« less

In vivo flow speed measurement of capillaries by photoacoustic correlation spectroscopy.

PubMed

Chen, Sung-Liang; Xie, Zhixing; Carson, Paul L; Wang, Xueding; Guo, L Jay

2011-10-15

We recently proposed photoacoustic correlation spectroscopy (PACS) and demonstrated a proof-of-concept experiment. Here we use the technique for in vivo flow speed measurement in capillaries in a chick embryo model. The photoacoustic microscopy system is used to render high spatial resolution and high sensitivity, enabling sufficient signals from single red blood cells. The probe beam size is calibrated by a blood-mimicking phantom. The results indicate the feasibility of using PACS to study flow speeds in capillaries.

Development and analysis of closed cycle circulator elements. Final report 31 Jul 978-31 May 1980

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shih, C.C.; Karr, G.R.; Perkins, J.F.

1980-05-01

A series of experiments with various flow rates of laser gas and coolants under several levels of energy inputs has been conducted on the Army Closed Cycle Circulator for pulsed EDL to collect sufficient data for flow calibration and coefficient determination. Verification of the theoretical models depicting the functions of the heat exchangers in maintaining the thermal balance in the flow through the steady and transient states are made through comparison with results of the experimental analysis.

A multiple-scale turbulence model for incompressible flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duncan, B. S.; Liou, W. W.; Shih, T. H.

1993-01-01

A multiple-scale eddy viscosity model is described. This model splits the energy spectrum into a high wave number regime and a low wave number regime. Dividing the energy spectrum into multiple regimes simplistically emulates the cascade of energy through the turbulence spectrum. The constraints on the model coefficients are determined by examining decaying turbulence and homogeneous turbulence. A direct link between the partitioned energies and the energy transfer process is established through the coefficients. This new model was calibrated and tested for boundary-free turbulent shear flows. Calculations of mean and turbulent properties show good agreement with experimental data for two mixing layers, a plane jet and a round jet.

Analysis of the effects of proposed pumping from the principal artesian aquifer, Savannah, Georgia area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Randolph, R.B.; Krause, R.E.

1984-01-01

A two-dimensional finite-difference model of the principal artesian aquifer in the Savannah, Georgia, area, originally developed by Counts and Krause (1976), has been expanded and refined. The model was updated and the grid redesigned to provide more current and accurate detail for ground-water resources management alternatives. Improvements in the definition of the flow system were made possible by the acquisition of additional data in the area and by recently completed regional models that include the area. The model was initially calibrated by using the estimated predevelopment potentiometric surface of 1880. The flow system under predevelopment conditions was sluggish and only 100 cubic feet per second (65 million gallons per day) flowed through the model area. It was then tested for acceptance by using the May 1980 potentiometric surface and corresponding pumping stress of approximately 85 million gallons per day in the Savannah, Georgia-Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, area. The flow through the system under 1980 conditions was about 390 cubic feet per second (250 million gallons per day) and the vertical inflow from the overlying surficial aquifer more than doubled due to formerly rejected recharge that now flows vertically into the aquifer. Calibration was accurate + or - 10 feet. The absolute error per node was 3.4 feet. A hypothetical 25-percent increase in pumpage over the entire area was used to represent a gradual growth in commercial and municipal pumpage over the next 20 to 30 years. The increase produced a maximum decline of 30 feet below the existing water level of 135 feet below sea level at the center of the cone of depression in Savannah, and a 5-foot decline at a radius of 20 miles from the center of the cone of depression. (USGS)

Impact of climate change on freshwater resources in a heterogeneous coastal aquifer of Bremerhaven, Germany: A three-dimensional modeling study.

PubMed

Yang, Jie; Graf, Thomas; Ptak, Thomas

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to induce sea level rise in the German Bight, which is part of the North Sea, Germany. Climate change may also modify river discharge of the river Weser flowing into the German Bight, which will alter both pressure and salinity distributions in the river Weser estuary. To study the long-term interaction between sea level rise, discharge variations, a storm surge and coastal aquifer flow dynamics, a 3D seawater intrusion model was designed using the fully coupled surface-subsurface numerical model HydroGeoSphere. The model simulates the coastal aquifer as an integral system considering complexities such as variable-density flow, variably saturated flow, irregular boundary conditions, irregular land surface and anthropogenic structures (e.g., dyke, drainage canals, water gates). The simulated steady-state groundwater flow of the year 2009 is calibrated using PEST. In addition, four climate change scenarios are simulated based on the calibrated model: (i) sea level rise of 1m, (ii) the salinity of the seaside boundary increases by 4 PSU (Practical Salinity Units), (iii) the salinity of the seaside boundary decreases by 12 PSU, and (iv) a storm surge with partial dyke failure. Under scenarios (i) and (iv), the salinized area expands several kilometers further inland during several years. Natural remediation can take up to 20 years. However, sudden short-term salinity changes in the river Weser estuary do not influence the salinized area in the coastal aquifer. The obtained results are useful for coastal engineering practices and drinking water resource management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flow Control and Measurement in Electric Propulsion Systems: Towards an AIAA Reference Standard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snyder, John Steven; Baldwin, Jeff; Frieman, Jason D.; Walker, Mitchell L. R.; Hicks, Nathan S.; Polzin, Kurt A.; Singleton, James T.

2013-01-01

Accurate control and measurement of propellant flow to a thruster is one of the most basic and fundamental requirements for operation of electric propulsion systems, whether they be in the laboratory or on flight spacecraft. Hence, it is important for the electric propulsion community to have a common understanding of typical methods for flow control and measurement. This paper addresses the topic of propellant flow primarily for the gaseous propellant systems which have dominated laboratory research and flight application over the last few decades, although other types of systems are also briefly discussed. While most flight systems have employed a type of pressure-fed flow restrictor for flow control, both thermal-based and pressure-based mass flow controllers are routinely used in laboratories. Fundamentals and theory of operation of these types of controllers are presented, along with sources of uncertainty associated with their use. Methods of calibration and recommendations for calibration processes are presented. Finally, details of uncertainty calculations are presented for some common calibration methods and for the linear fits to calibration data that are commonly used.

Flight calibration tests of a nose-boom-mounted fixed hemispherical flow-direction sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Armistead, K. H.; Webb, L. D.

1973-01-01

Flight calibrations of a fixed hemispherical flow angle-of-attack and angle-of-sideslip sensor were made from Mach numbers of 0.5 to 1.8. Maneuvers were performed by an F-104 airplane at selected altitudes to compare the measurement of flow angle of attack from the fixed hemispherical sensor with that from a standard angle-of-attack vane. The hemispherical flow-direction sensor measured differential pressure at two angle-of-attack ports and two angle-of-sideslip ports in diametrically opposed positions. Stagnation pressure was measured at a center port. The results of these tests showed that the calibration curves for the hemispherical flow-direction sensor were linear for angles of attack up to 13 deg. The overall uncertainty in determining angle of attack from these curves was plus or minus 0.35 deg or less. A Mach number position error calibration curve was also obtained for the hemispherical flow-direction sensor. The hemispherical flow-direction sensor exhibited a much larger position error than a standard uncompensated pitot-static probe.

Estimation of water table level and nitrate pollution based on geostatistical and multiple mass transport models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matiatos, Ioannis; Varouhakis, Emmanouil A.; Papadopoulou, Maria P.

2015-04-01

As the sustainable use of groundwater resources is a great challenge for many countries in the world, groundwater modeling has become a very useful and well established tool for studying groundwater management problems. Based on various methods used to numerically solve algebraic equations representing groundwater flow and contaminant mass transport, numerical models are mainly divided into Finite Difference-based and Finite Element-based models. The present study aims at evaluating the performance of a finite difference-based (MODFLOW-MT3DMS), a finite element-based (FEFLOW) and a hybrid finite element and finite difference (Princeton Transport Code-PTC) groundwater numerical models simulating groundwater flow and nitrate mass transport in the alluvial aquifer of Trizina region in NE Peloponnese, Greece. The calibration of groundwater flow in all models was performed using groundwater hydraulic head data from seven stress periods and the validation was based on a series of hydraulic head data for two stress periods in sufficient numbers of observation locations. The same periods were used for the calibration of nitrate mass transport. The calibration and validation of the three models revealed that the simulated values of hydraulic heads and nitrate mass concentrations coincide well with the observed ones. The models' performance was assessed by performing a statistical analysis of these different types of numerical algorithms. A number of metrics, such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Bias, Nash Sutcliffe Model Efficiency (NSE) and Reliability Index (RI) were used allowing the direct comparison of models' performance. Spatiotemporal Kriging (STRK) was also applied using separable and non-separable spatiotemporal variograms to predict water table level and nitrate concentration at each sampling station for two selected hydrological stress periods. The predictions were validated using the respective measured values. Maps of water table level and nitrate concentrations were produced and compared with those obtained from groundwater and mass transport numerical models. Preliminary results showed similar efficiency of the spatiotemporal geostatistical method with the numerical models. However data requirements of the former model were significantly less. Advantages and disadvantages of the methods performance were analysed and discussed indicating the characteristics of the different approaches.

Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-04-01

Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

Comparison of ground-water flow model particle-tracking results and isotopic data in the Mojave River ground-water basin, southern California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Izbicki, John A.; Stamos, Christina L.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Martin, Peter

2004-01-01

Flow-path and time-of-travel results for the Mojave River ground-water basin, southern California, calculated using the ground-water flow model MODFLOW and particle-tracking model MODPATH were similar to flow path and time-of-travel interpretations derived from delta-deuterium and carbon-14 data. Model and isotopic data both show short flow paths and young ground-water ages throughout the floodplain aquifer along most the Mojave River. Longer flow paths and older ground-water ages as great as 10,000 years before present were measured and simulated in the floodplain aquifer near the Mojave Valley. Model and isotopic data also show movement of water between the floodplain and regional aquifer and subsequent discharge of water from the river to dry lakes in some areas. It was not possible to simulate the isotopic composition of ground-water in the regional aquifer away from the front of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mountains - because recharge in these areas does not occur under the present-day climatic conditions used for calibration of the model.

Measurements and models of electric fields in the in vivo human brain during transcranial electric stimulation

PubMed Central

Huang, Yu; Liu, Anli A; Lafon, Belen; Friedman, Daniel; Dayan, Michael; Wang, Xiuyuan; Bikson, Marom; Doyle, Werner K; Devinsky, Orrin; Parra, Lucas C

2017-01-01

Transcranial electric stimulation aims to stimulate the brain by applying weak electrical currents at the scalp. However, the magnitude and spatial distribution of electric fields in the human brain are unknown. We measured electric potentials intracranially in ten epilepsy patients and estimated electric fields across the entire brain by leveraging calibrated current-flow models. When stimulating at 2 mA, cortical electric fields reach 0.8 V/m, the lower limit of effectiveness in animal studies. When individual whole-head anatomy is considered, the predicted electric field magnitudes correlate with the recorded values in cortical (r = 0.86) and depth (r = 0.88) electrodes. Accurate models require adjustment of tissue conductivity values reported in the literature, but accuracy is not improved when incorporating white matter anisotropy or different skull compartments. This is the first study to validate and calibrate current-flow models with in vivo intracranial recordings in humans, providing a solid foundation to target stimulation and interpret clinical trials. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18834.001 PMID:28169833

Calibration of sonic valves for the laminar flow control, leading-edge flight test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petley, D. H.; Alexander, W., Jr.; Wright, A. S., Jr.; Vallas, M.

1985-01-01

Sonic needle valves were calibrated to measure and control airflow in the suction system for the leading-edge flight test. The procedure and results for the calibration flow test of 4:41 flight valves are given. Mass-flow rates, which ranged from 0.001 to 0.012 lbm/sec, and maximum back pressure were measured for total temperatures from -30 F to 75 F and total pressures from 120 to 540 psf. Correlating equations are obtained for mass-flow rate as a function of total pressure, total temperature, and valve opening length. The most important aspect of flow measurement and control is found to be the measurement of valve opening length.

Chemistry of groundwater discharge inferred from longitudinal river sampling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batlle-Aguilar, J.; Harrington, G. A.; Leblanc, M.; Welch, C.; Cook, P. G.

2014-02-01

We present an approach for identifying groundwater discharge chemistry and quantifying spatially distributed groundwater discharge into rivers based on longitudinal synoptic sampling and flow gauging of a river. The method is demonstrated using a 450 km reach of a tropical river in Australia. Results obtained from sampling for environmental tracers, major ions, and selected trace element chemistry were used to calibrate a steady state one-dimensional advective transport model of tracer distribution along the river. The model closely reproduced river discharge and environmental tracer and chemistry composition along the study length. It provided a detailed longitudinal profile of groundwater inflow chemistry and discharge rates, revealing that regional fractured mudstones in the central part of the catchment contributed up to 40% of all groundwater discharge. Detailed analysis of model calibration errors and modeled/measured groundwater ion ratios elucidated that groundwater discharging in the top of the catchment is a mixture of local groundwater and bank storage return flow, making the method potentially useful to differentiate between local and regional sourced groundwater discharge. As the error in tracer concentration induced by a flow event applies equally to any conservative tracer, we show that major ion ratios can still be resolved with minimal error when river samples are collected during transient flow conditions. The ability of the method to infer groundwater inflow chemistry from longitudinal river sampling is particularly attractive in remote areas where access to groundwater is limited or not possible, and for identification of actual fluxes of salts and/or specific contaminant sources.

Probabilistic and Other Neural Nets in Multi-Hole Probe Calibration and Flow Angularity Pattern Recognition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baskaran, Subbiah; Ramachandran, Narayanan; Noever, David

1998-01-01

The use of probabilistic (PNN) and multilayer feed forward (MLFNN) neural networks are investigated for calibration of multi-hole pressure probes and the prediction of associated flow angularity patterns in test flow fields. Both types of networks are studied in detail for their calibration and prediction characteristics. The current formalism can be applied to any multi-hole probe, however the test results for the most commonly used five-hole Cone and Prism probe types alone are reported in this article.

Numerical Simulation of the Fluid-Structure Interaction of a Surface Effect Ship Bow Seal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloxom, Andrew L.

Numerical simulations of fluid-structure interaction (FSI) problems were performed in an effort to verify and validate a commercially available FSI tool. This tool uses an iterative partitioned coupling scheme between CD-adapco's STAR-CCM+ finite volume fluid solver and Simulia's Abaqus finite element structural solver to simulate the FSI response of a system. Preliminary verification and validation work (V&V) was carried out to understand the numerical behavior of the codes individually and together as a FSI tool. Verification and Validation work that was completed included code order verification of the respective fluid and structural solvers with Couette-Poiseuille flow and Euler-Bernoulli beam theory. These results confirmed the 2 nd order accuracy of the spatial discretizations used. Following that, a mixture of solution verifications and model calibrations was performed with the inclusion of the physics models implemented in the solution of the FSI problems. Solution verifications were completed for fluid and structural stand-alone models as well as for the coupled FSI solutions. These results re-confirmed the spatial order of accuracy but for more complex flows and physics models as well as the order of accuracy of the temporal discretizations. In lieu of a good material definition, model calibration is performed to reproduce the experimental results. This work used model calibration for both instances of hyperelastic materials which were presented in the literature as validation cases because these materials were defined as linear elastic. Calibrated, three dimensional models of the bow seal on the University of Michigan bow seal test platform showed the ability to reproduce the experimental results qualitatively through averaging of the forces and seal displacements. These simulations represent the only current 3D results for this case. One significant result of this study is the ability to visualize the flow around the seal and to directly measure the seal resistances at varying cushion pressures, seal immersions, forward speeds, and different seal materials. SES design analysis could greatly benefit from the inclusion of flexible seals in simulations, and this work is a positive step in that direction. In future work, the inclusion of more complex seal geometries and contact will further enhance the capability of this tool.

Water-budgets and recharge-area simulations for the Spring Creek and Nittany Creek Basins and parts of the Spruce Creek Basin, Centre and Huntingdon Counties, Pennsylvania, Water Years 2000–06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, John W.; Risser, Dennis W.; Regan, R. Steve; Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Hoffman, Scott A.; Markstrom, Steven

2015-08-17

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with ClearWater Conservancy and the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection to develop a hydrologic model to simulate a water budget and identify areas of greater than average recharge for the Spring Creek Basin in central Pennsylvania. The model was developed to help policy makers, natural resource managers, and the public better understand and manage the water resources in the region. The Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW model (GSFLOW), which is an integration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Modular Groundwater Flow Model (MODFLOW-NWT), was used to simulate surface water and groundwater in the Spring Creek Basin for water years 2000–06. Because the groundwater and surface-water divides for the Spring Creek Basin do not coincide, the study area includes the Nittany Creek Basin and headwaters of the Spruce Creek Basin. The hydrologic model was developed by the use of a stepwise process: (1) develop and calibrate a PRMS model and steady-state MODFLOW-NWT model; (2) re-calibrate the steady-state MODFLOW-NWT model using potential recharge estimates simulated from the PRMS model, and (3) integrate the PRMS and MODFLOW-NWT models into GSFLOW. The individually calibrated PRMS and MODFLOW-NWT models were used as a starting point for the calibration of the fully coupled GSFLOW model. The GSFLOW model calibration was done by comparing observations and corresponding simulated values of streamflow from 11 streamgages and groundwater levels from 16 wells. The cumulative water budget and individual water budgets for water years 2000–06 were simulated by using GSFLOW. The largest source and sink terms are represented by precipitation and evapotranspiration, respectively. For the period simulated, a net surplus in the water budget was computed where inflows exceeded outflows by about 1.7 billion cubic feet (0.47 inches per year over the basin area); storage increased by about the same amount to balance the budget. The rate and distribution of recharge throughout the Spring Creek, Nittany Creek, and Spruce Creek Basins is variable as a result of the high degree of hydrogeologic heterogeneity and karst features. The greatest amount of recharge was simulated in the carbonate-bedrock valley, near the toe slopes of Nittany and Tussey Mountains, in the Scotia Barrens, and along the area coinciding with the Gatesburg Formation. Runoff extremes were observed for water years 2001 (dry year) and 2004 (wet year). Simulated average recharge rates (water reaching the saturated zone as defined in GSFLOW) for 2001 and 2004 were 5.4 in/yr and 22.0 in/yr, respectively. Areas where simulations show large variations in annual recharge between wet and dry years are the same areas where simulated recharge was large. Those areas where rates of groundwater recharge are much higher than average, and are capable of accepting substantially greater quantities of recharge during wet years, might be considered critical for maintaining the flow of springs, stream base flow, or the source of water to supply wells. The slopes of the Bald Eagle, Tussey, and Nittany Mountains are relatively insensitive to variations in recharge, primarily because of reduced infiltration rates and steep slopes.

Effects of different boundary conditions on the simulation of groundwater flow in a multi-layered coastal aquifer system (Taranto Gulf, southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Filippis, Giovanna; Foglia, Laura; Giudici, Mauro; Mehl, Steffen; Margiotta, Stefano; Negri, Sergio L.

2017-11-01

The evaluation of the accuracy or reasonableness of numerical models of groundwater flow is a complex task, due to the uncertainties in hydrodynamic properties and boundary conditions and the scarcity of good-quality field data. To assess model reliability, different calibration techniques are joined to evaluate the effects of different kinds of boundary conditions on the groundwater flow in a coastal multi-layered aquifer in southern Italy. In particular, both direct and indirect approaches for inverse modeling were joined through the calibration of one of the most uncertain parameters, namely the hydraulic conductivity of the karst deep hydrostratigraphic unit. The methodology proposed here, and applied to a real case study, confirmed that the selection of boundary conditions is among the most critical and difficult aspects of the characterization of a groundwater system for conceptual analysis or numerical simulation. The practical tests conducted in this study show that incorrect specification of boundary conditions prevents an acceptable match between the model response to the hydraulic stresses and the behavior of the natural system. Such effects have a negative impact on the applicability of numerical modeling to simulate groundwater dynamics in complex hydrogeological situations. This is particularly important for management of the aquifer system investigated in this work, which represents the only available freshwater resource of the study area, and is threatened by overexploitation and saltwater intrusion.