The Role Of Orbital Forcing On Polar Ice Volume And Global Sea-Level During The Late Pliocene (3.3-.2.6 Ma)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naish, T.; Grant, G.; Dunbar, G. B.; Patterson, M. O.; Kominz, M. A.; Stocchi, P.

2017-12-01

Challenges remain concerning the potentially intractable problem of constraining the absolute magnitude of Pliocene eustatic sea-level change, and the role of orbital forcing on the frequency of ice volume/sea-level change is widely debated. Here, we present three new high-resolution geological archives for the MPWP: (i) ice-berg rafted debris (IBRD) mass accumulation rates from deep ocean sediment core (IODP U1361) off the Wilkes Margin of Antarctica recording fluctuations in the East Antarctic ice sheet; (ii) a continuous shallow-marine record of sea-level change from the Wanganui Basin, New Zealand; and (iii) a record sea-level-controlled terrigenous sedimentation (IODP 1124) to the deep ocean on Hikurangi margin of New Zealand. All three records are dominated by precession-paced cyclicity ( 20ka) in-phase with high-latitude southern hemisphere insolation between 3.3M-2.9Ma, and provide insights into orbital-forcing of ice volume and sea-level independent of the benthic oxygen isotope records. Moreover, we have back-stripped the Wanganui record to reveal glacial-interglacial sea-level changes of 20±10m amplitude. We conclude that during this interval, precession-paced Antarctic ice volume changes largely drove global glacial-interglacial sea-level fluctuations, in the absence of a significant northern hemisphere ice volume contribution. Prior to 3.3Ma, proxy data from IODP U1361 and ANDRILL 1-A records extending back to 5Ma, show that the Antarctic margin experienced warmer ocean temperatures, a lack of perennial sea-ice, and fluctuations in ice extent paced by obliquity. The emergence of precession at 3.3Ma coincident with the M2 glaciation in the benthic d18O record, also coincides with continent-wide cooling, ice expansion and the development of extensive seasonal sea-ice around Antarctica. We argue that a melt threshold response to orbital forcing was crossed, whereby Antarctic ice sheet melt was restricted to peak austral summer insolation (precession), rather than a longer summer melt-season controlled by mean annual insolation (obliquity). An obliquity-paced signal re-emerges in the New Zealand sea-level records after 2.9Ma, while the EAIS IBRD record continues to be paced by precession, implying an increasingly dominant influence of northern hemisphere ice sheets.

Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea. The role of the sea state, forcing frequency and spatial forcing resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, Nina; de Vries, Hylke; Drijfhout, Sybren; van den Brink, Henk; van Meijgaard, Erik; de Vries, Hans

2018-02-01

This study shows that storm surge model performance in the North Sea is mostly unaffected by the application of temporal variations of surface drag due to changes in sea state provided the choice of a suitable constant Charnock parameter in the sea-state-independent case. Including essential meteorological features on smaller scales and minimising interpolation errors by increasing forcing data resolution are shown to be more important for the improvement of model performance particularly at the high tail of the probability distribution. This is found in a modelling study using WAQUA/DCSMv5 by evaluating the influence of a realistic air-sea momentum transfer parameterization and comparing it to the influence of changes in the spatial and temporal resolution of the applied forcing fields in an effort to support the improvement of impact and climate analysis studies. Particular attention is given to the representation of extreme water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5 is forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from a set of different forcing fields, which either (i) include a wave-state-dependent Charnock parameter or (ii) apply a constant Charnock parameter ( α C h = 0.032) tuned for young sea states in the North Sea, but differ in their spatial and/or temporal resolution. Increasing forcing field resolution from roughly 79 to 12 km through dynamically downscaling can reduce the modelled low bias, depending on coastal station, by up to 0.25 m for the modelled extreme water levels with a 1-year return period and between 0.1 m and 0.5 m for extreme surge heights.

On the regional characteristics of past and future sea-level change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermann, A.; McGregor, S.

2010-12-01

Global sea-level rise due to the thermal expansion of the warming oceans and freshwater input from melting glaciers and ice-sheets is threatening to inundate low-lying islands and coast-lines worldwide. At present global mean sea level rises at 3.1 ± 0.7 mm/yr with an accelerating tendency. However, the magnitude of recent decadal sea-level trends varies greatly spatially attaining values of up to 10 mm/yr in some areas of the western tropical Pacific. Identifying the causes of recent regional sea-level trends and understanding the patterns of future projected sea-level change is of crucial importance. Using a wind-forced simplified dynamical ocean model, we show that the regional features of recent decadal and multidecadal sea-level trends in the tropical Indo-Pacific can be attributed to changes in the prevailing wind-regimes. Furthermore it is demonstrated that within an ensemble of ten state-of-the art coupled general circulation models, forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the next century, wind-induced re-distributions of upper-ocean water play a key role in establishing the spatial characteristics of projected regional sea-level rise. Wind-related changes in near- surface mass and heat convergence near the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia oppose, but can not cancel the regional signal of global mean sea-level rise.

The effect of regional sea level atmospheric pressure on sea level variations at globally distributed tide gauge stations with long records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iz, H. Bâki

2018-05-01

This study provides additional information about the impact of atmospheric pressure on sea level variations. The observed regularity in sea level atmospheric pressure depends mainly on the latitude and verified to be dominantly random closer to the equator. It was demonstrated that almost all the annual and semiannual sea level variations at 27 globally distributed tide gauge stations can be attributed to the regional/local atmospheric forcing as an inverted barometric effect. Statistically significant non-linearities were detected in the regional atmospheric pressure series, which in turn impacted other sea level variations as compounders in tandem with the lunar nodal forcing, generating lunar sub-harmonics with multidecadal periods. It was shown that random component of regional atmospheric pressure tends to cluster at monthly intervals. The clusters are likely to be caused by the intraannual seasonal atmospheric temperature changes,which may also act as random beats in generating sub-harmonics observed in sea level changes as another mechanism. This study also affirmed that there are no statistically significant secular trends in the progression of regional atmospheric pressures, hence there was no contribution to the sea level trends during the 20th century by the atmospheric pressure.Meanwhile, the estimated nonuniform scale factors of the inverted barometer effects suggest that the sea level atmospheric pressure will bias the sea level trends inferred from satellite altimetry measurements if their impact is accounted for as corrections without proper scaling.

Responses of East Asian Summer Monsoon to Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in the 17 Latest CMIP5 Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Song, Fengfei; Zhou, Tianjun; Qian, Yun

2014-01-31

In this study, we examined the responses of East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) to natural (solar variability and volcanic aerosols) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gasses and aerosols) forcings simulated in the 17 latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Program phase 5 (CMIP5) models with 105 realizations. The observed weakening trend of low-level EASM circulation during 1958-2001 is partly reproduced under all-forcing runs. A comparison of separate forcing experiments reveals that the aerosol-forcing plays a primary role in driving the weakened low-level monsoon circulation. The preferential cooling over continental East Asia caused by aerosol affects the monsoon circulation through reducing the land-sea thermal contrastmore » and results in higher sea level pressure over northern China. In the upper-level, both natural-forcing and aerosol-forcing contribute to the observed southward shift of East Asian subtropical jet through changing the meridional temperature gradient.« less

Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sweet, William V.; Kopp, Robert E.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha; Horton, Radley M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Zervas, Chris

2017-01-01

The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional factors contributing to sea level change for the entire U.S. coastline, and 3) incorporating these regionally appropriate scenarios within coastal risk management tools and capabilities deployed by individual agencies in support of the needs of specific stakeholder groups and user communities. This technical report focuses on the first two of these tasks and reports on the production of gridded relative sea level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a key technical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

Sensitivity analysis of sea level rise contribution depending on external forcing: A case study of Victoria Land, East Antarctica.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, I. W.; Lee, S. H.; Lee, W. S.; Lee, C. K.; Lee, K. K.

2017-12-01

As global mean temperature increases, it affects increase in polar glacier melt and thermal expansion of sea, which contributed to global sea level rise. Unlike large sea level rise contributors in Western Antarctica (e. g. Pine island glacier, Thwaites glacier), glaciers in East Antarctica shows relatively stable and slow ice velocity. However, recent calving events related to increase of supraglacier lake in Nansen ice shelf arouse the questions in regards to future evolution of ice dynamics at Victoria Land, East Antarctica. Here, using Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a series of numerical simulations were carried out to investigate ice dynamics evolution (grounding line migration, ice velocity) and sea level rise contribution in response to external forcing conditions (surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat). In this study, we used control method to set ice dynamic properties (ice rigidity and friction coefficient) with shallow shelf approximation model and check each external forcing conditions contributing to sea level change. Before 50-year transient simulations were conducted based on changing surface mass balance, floating ice melting rate, and ice front retreat of Drygalski ice tongue and Nansen ice shelf, relaxation was performed for 10 years to reduce non-physical undulation and it was used as initial condition. The simulation results showed that sea level rise contribution were expected to be much less compared to other fast glaciers. Floating ice melting rate was most sensitive parameter to sea level rise, while ice front retreat of Drygalski tongue was negligible. The regional model will be further updated utilizing ice radar topography and measured floating ice melting rate.

Sea level response to ENSO along the central California coast: How the 1997-1998 event compares with the historic record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryan, H.F.; Noble, M.

2002-01-01

Long-term monthly sea level and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from central California show that during winter months, positive anomalies are associated with El Nin??o events and the negative ones with La Nin??a events. There is no significant impact on monthly mean anomalies associated with Pacific decadal oscillations, although there is a tendency for more extreme events and greater variance during positive decadal oscillations. The very strong 1997-1998 El Nin??o was analyzed with respect to the long-term historic record to assess the forcing mechanisms for sea level and SST. Beginning in the spring of 1997, we observed several long-period (> 30days) fluctuations in daily sea level with amplitudes of over 10 cm at San Francisco, California. Fluctuations of poleward long-period alongshore wind stress anomalies (AWSA) are coherent with the sea level anomalies. However, the wind stress cannot entirely account for the observed sea level signals. The sea level fluctuations are also correlated with sea level fluctuations observed further south at Los Angeles and Tumaco, Columbia, which showed a poleward phase propagation of the sea level signal. We suggest that the sea level fluctuations were, to a greater degree, forced by the passage of remotely generated and coastally trapped waves that were generated along the equator and propagated to the north along the west coast of North America. However, both local and remote AWSA can significantly modulate the sea level signals. The arrival of coastally trapped waves began in the spring of 1997, which is earlier than previous strong El Nin??o events such as the 1982-1983 event. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.

Atmospheric forcing on the seasonal variability of sea level at Cochin, southwest coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivas, K.; Dinesh Kumar, P. K.

2006-07-01

The seasonal cycles of some atmospheric parameters at Cochin (southwest coast of India) have been studied with a specific emphasis on the role played by them in forcing the seasonal sea level. Equatorward along-shore wind stress as well as equatorward volume transport by coastal currents along the Indian peninsula could play an important role in the sea level low during the premonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons. During postmonsoon season, along-shore wind stress plays no major role in the high sea level whereas this could be due to the poleward volume transport by the coastal along-shore currents. Atmospheric pressure and river discharge do not seem to influence much the sea level during the southwest monsoon period, even though the river discharge during that period is considerable. The sea level was minimal during the southwest monsoon season, when the river discharge was at its annual maximum. The difference between the seasonal march of observed and pressure corrected sea level (CSL) was not significant for the study region. Harmonic analysis of the climatological data on the various parameters revealed that air temperature is the only parameter with a dominance of the semi-annual over the annual cycle. Cross-shore wind stress indicated strong interannual variability whereas relative density showed strong seasonal variability. The climatological seasonal cycles of CSL at eight other tide gauge stations along the west coast of the Indian subcontinent are also examined, to assess the role of various forcings on the seasonal sea level cycle. The signatures of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon could be seen in some of the parameters (SST, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, along-shore wind stress, relative density and sea level). The signature of ENSO was particularly strong in the case of atmospheric pressure followed by relative density, the variance accounted by the relationship being 47% and 16%, respectively.

Seasonal changes and driving forces of inflow and outflow through the Bohai Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhixin; Qiao, Fangli; Guo, Jingsong; Guo, Binghuo

2018-02-01

This work focuses on analyzing seasonal variation of inflow and outflow through the Bohai Strait that greatly affect the marine environment in the Bohai Sea, using observational data including sea bed mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler currents, CTD salinity data on deck, sea level anomalies of coastal tide gauge stations, and climatological monthly sea level anomalies from Archiving, Validation and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic data. Our results show three patterns of outflow and inflow through the Bohai Strait. The first is such that outflow and inflow occur respectively in the southern and northern parts of the strait, as in the traditional understanding. Our results suggest that this pattern occurs only in autumn and winter. Beginning in late September, Ekman currents driven by the northwesterly monsoon carry Bohai Sea water that piles up in the southern part of that sea and then exits eastward to the Yellow Sea. In this process, the pressure and current fields are continuously adjusted, until a quasi balance state between wind stress, Coriolis force and pressure gradient force is reached in winter. Inflow with a compensating property through the northern channel is close to the outflow through the southern channel in winter. The second pattern is a single inflow in spring, and the current and pressure fields are in adjustment. In early spring, the northwesterly monsoon ceases, Yellow Sea water enters the Bohai Sea under the pressure gradient force. With southeasterly monsoon establishment and strengthening, northern Yellow Sea water continually flows into the Bohai Sea and causes sea level rise northward. In the third pattern, outflow is much greater than inflow in summer. The currents run eastward in the central Bohai Sea and then enter the northern Yellow Sea through the northern channel and upper layer of the southern channel, while a westward current with a compensating property enters via the lower layer of the southern channel. Larger net transport is through the Bohai Strait to the northern Yellow Sea, which is related to strong precipitation and runoff into the Bohai Sea.

Summary of the SeaRISE Project's Experiments on Modeled Ice-Sheet Contributions to Future Sea Level: Linearities and Non-linearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bindschadler, Robert

2013-04-01

The SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) project achieved ice-sheet model ensemble responses to a variety of prescribed changes to surface mass balance, basal sliding and ocean boundary melting. Greenland ice sheet models are more sensitive than Antarctic ice sheet models to likely atmospheric changes in surface mass balance, while Antarctic models are most sensitive to basal melting of its ice shelves. An experiment approximating the IPCC's RCP8.5 scenario produces first century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 7.3 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 17 cm, respectively. By 200 years, these projections increase to 53.2 and 23.4 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 57 cm. The considerable range among models was not only in the magnitude of ice lost, but also in the spatial pattern of response to identical forcing. Despite this variation, the response of any single model to a large range in the forcing intensity was remarkably linear in most cases. Additionally, the results of sensitivity experiments to single types of forcing (i.e., only one of the surface mass balance, or basal sliding, or ocean boundary melting) could be summed to accurately predict any model's result for an experiment when multiple forcings were applied simultaneously. This suggests a limited amount of feedback through the ice sheet's internal dynamics between these types of forcing over the time scale of a few centuries (SeaRISE experiments lasted 500 years).

The 14 month wind stressed residual circulation (pole tide) in the North Sea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oconnor, W. P.

1986-01-01

From published research it is known that a quasi-periodic 14 month atmospheric pressure oscillation of a few tenths of a millibar exists in the region of the North and Baltic Seas. At some time in the cycle the associated wind stress has a westerly component that drives a circulation in the North Sea. The results of a dynamical model and comparisons with several North Sea residual circulation studies show that a large sea level gradient results along the Dutch coast. It is this feature that has been referred to as the enhanced pole tide. The dynamical similarity of this pole tide in the North and Baltic Seas to the annual and seasonal wind forced circulations is considered. It is inferred that the large deviations of the pole tide from equilibrium at coastal stations are the result of this sea level set up forces by the 14 month wind stress cycle.

Attribution of the 1995 and 2006 storm surge events in the southern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klehmet, K.; Rockel, B.; von Storch, H.

2016-12-01

In November 1995 and 2006, the German Baltic Sea coast experienced severe storm surge conditions. Exceptional water level heights of about 1.8m above mean sea level were measured at German tide gauges. Extreme event attribution poses unique challenges trying to distinguish the role of anthropogenic influence, as e.g. greenhouse gas emissions or land-use changes, from natural variability. This study, which is part of the EUCLEIA project (EUropean CLimate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution, www. eucleia.eu), aims to estimate how the contribution of anthropogenic drivers has altered the probability of single extreme events such as the 1995 and 2006 storm surge events. We explore these aspects using two 7-member ensembles of Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3-A (HadGEM3-A), the atmosphere only component of the HadGEM3, provided by the Met Office Hadley Centre. The ensemble of HadGEM3-A consists of two multi-decadal experiments from 1960-2013 - one with anthropogenic forcing factors and natural forcings representing the actual climate. The second experiment represents the natural climate including only natural forcing factors. These two 7-member ensembles of about 60km spatial resolution are used as atmospheric forcing data to drive the regional ocean model TRIM-NP in order to calculate water level in the Baltic Sea in 12.8km spatial resolution. Findings indicate some limitations of the regional model ensemble to reproduce the magnitude of extreme water levels well. It is tested whether increased spatial resolution of atmospheric forcing fields can improve the representation of Baltic Sea extreme water levels along the coast and thus add value in the attribution analysis.

The numerical modeling the sensitivity of coastal wind and ozone concentration to different SST forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Hyun-Jung; Lee, Hwa Woon; Jeon, Won-Bae; Lee, Soon-Hwan

2012-01-01

This study evaluated an atmospheric and air quality model of the spatial variability in low-level coastal winds and ozone concentration, which are affected by sea surface temperature (SST) forcing with different thermal gradients. Several numerical experiments examined the effect of sea surface SST forcing on the coastal atmosphere and air quality. In this study, the RAMS-CAMx model was used to estimate the sensitivity to two different resolutions of SST forcing during the episode day as well as to simulate the low-level coastal winds and ozone concentration over a complex coastal area. The regional model reproduced the qualitative effect of SST forcing and thermal gradients on the coastal flow. The high-resolution SST derived from NGSST-O (New Generation Sea Surface Temperature Open Ocean) forcing to resolve the warm SST appeared to enhance the mean response of low-level winds to coastal regions. These wind variations have important implications for coastal air quality. A higher ozone concentration was forecasted when SST data with a high resolution was used with the appropriate limitation of temperature, regional wind circulation, vertical mixing height and nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) near coastal areas.

Improving the Predictability of Severe Water Levels along the Coasts of Marginal Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, N. N.; de Vries, H.; van den Brink, H.; De Vries, H.

2016-12-01

Extreme water levels can lead to catastrophic consequences with severe societal and economic repercussions. Particularly vulnerable are countries that are largely situated below sea level. To support and optimize forecast models, as well as future adaptation efforts, this study assesses the modeled contribution of storm surges and astronomical tides to total water levels under different air-sea momentum transfer parameterizations in a numerical surge model (WAQUA/DCSMv5) of the North Sea. It particularly focuses on the implications for the representation of extreme and rapidly recurring severe water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5, which is currently used to forecast coastal water levels in the Netherlands, is forced with ERA Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from two different methodologies to parameterize air-sea momentum transfer. The first calculates the governing wind stress forcing using a drag coefficient derived from the conventional approach of wind speed dependent Charnock constants. The other uses instantaneous wind stress from the parameterization of the quasi-linear theory applied within the ECMWF wave model which is expected to deliver a more realistic forcing. The performance of both methods is tested by validating the model output with observations, paying particular attention to their ability to reproduce rapidly succeeding high water levels and extreme events. In a second step, the common features of and connections between these events are analyzed. The results of this study will allow recommendations for the improvement of water level forecasts within marginal seas and support decisions by policy makers. Furthermore, they will strengthen the general understanding of severe and extreme water levels as a whole and help to extend the currently limited knowledge about clustering events.

Revisiting sea level changes in the North Sea during the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Jürgen; Dangendorf, Sönke; Wahl, Thomas; Niehüser, Sebastian

2016-04-01

The North Sea is one of the best instrumented ocean basins in the world. Here we revisit sea level changes in the North Sea region from tide gauges, satellite altimetry, hydrographic profiles and ocean reanalysis data from the beginning of the 19th century to present. This includes an overview of the sea level chapter of the North Sea Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA) complemented by results from more recent investigations. The estimates of long-term changes from tide gauge records are significantly affected by vertical land motion (VLM), which is related to both the large-scale viscoelastic response of the solid earth to ice melting since the last deglaciation and local effects. Removing VLM (estimated from various data sources such as GPS, tide gauge minus altimetry and GIA) significantly reduces the spatial variability of long-term trends in the basin. VLM corrected tide gauge records suggest a transition from relatively moderate changes in the 19th century towards modern trends of roughly 1.5 mm/yr during the 20th century. Superimposed on the long-term changes there is a considerable inter-annual to multi-decadal variability. On inter-annual timescales this variability mainly reflects the barotropic response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing with the inverted barometer effect dominating along the UK and Norwegian coastlines and wind forcing controlling the southeastern part of the basin. The decadal variability is mostly remotely forced and dynamically linked to the North Atlantic via boundary waves in response to long-shore winds along the continental slope. These findings give valuable information about the required horizontal resolution of ocean models and the necessary boundary conditions and are therefore important for the dynamical downscaling of sea level projections for the North Sea coastlines.

Global sea-level change during the next 10,000 years: the end of an icehouse?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Breedam, Jonas; Huybrechts, Philippe; Goelzer, Heiko; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2015-04-01

Because of the long life-time of atmospheric CO2, any realized future warming is likely to persist for many centuries to millennia. As a consequence, sea-level rise will continue on a multi-millennial timescale, especially from the slower components such as oceanic thermal expansion and above all, from melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The two polar ice sheets have the potential to produce a global eustatic sea-level rise of about 65 m, at least an order of magnitude larger than thermal expansion under extreme forcing scenarios. Other components contributing to sea-level change are the melting of glaciers and ice caps and haline contraction of the ocean from fresh water delivery from land ice, but are less important. We have made projections of future sea-level rise over the next 10,000 years with the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM, which includes high resolution models of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Four different model parameter sets are considered to explore the model uncertainty. The climate forcing is based on prolonged Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios with an assumed exponential falloff for carbon dioxide concentrations according to global carbon cycle simulations. Six different forcing scenarios are constructed where the highest scenario includes a positive feedback due to the destabilization of methane hydrates and the subsequent emission of methane. By far the largest contribution in the global sea-level projections arises from the polar ice sheets. For the Greenland ice sheet, the ablation is larger than the accumulation for all forcing scenarios shortly after the start of the experiments. The ice sheet continuously melts and nearly disappears in all cases. The Antarctic ice sheet grows during the first decades under low to intermediate forcing scenarios due to increased accumulation. However, the spread between the different scenarios is very large. Under the highest prolonged RCP scenario (and in case methane hydrate starts to destabilize), the model uncertainty does not exclude melting of the entire Antarctic ice sheet after 10,000 years. This would mark the end of the present icehouse, which has existed for about 34 Myr, and would raise global sea-level by up to 70 m from all contributions combined.

Anthropogenic Influence on the Changes of the Subtropical Gyre Circulation in the South Pacific in the 20th Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albrecht, F.; Pizarro, O.; Montecinos, A.

2016-12-01

The subtropical ocean gyre in the South Pacific is a large scale wind-driven ocean circulation, including the Peru-Chile Current, the westward South Equatorial Current, the East Australian Current, and the eastward South Pacific Current. Large scale ocean circulations play an essential role in the climate of the Earth over long and short term time scales.In the recent years a spin-up of this circulation has been recognized analyzing observations of sea level, temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface temperature and wind. Until now it is not clear whether this spin-up is decadal variability or whether it is a long-term trend introduced by anthropogenic forcing. This study aims to analyze whether and how anthropogenic forcing influences the position and the strength of the gyre in the 20th century. To determine that, yearly means of different variables of an ensemble of CMIP5 models are analyzed. The experiments 'historical' and 'historicalNat' are examined. The 'historical' experiment simulates the climate of the 20th century and the 'historicalNat' experiment covers the same time period, but only includes natural forcings. Comparing the outcomes of these two experiments is supposed to give information about the anthropogenic influence on the subtropical gyre of the South Pacific.The main variable we analyze is sea level change. This is directly related to the gyre circulation. The center of the gyre is characterized by a high pressure zone (high sea level) and the temporal and spatial variability of the sea level height field gives information about changes in the gyre circulation. The CMIP5 databank includes steric and dynamic sea level changes. Steric sea level, that is the contribution of temperature and salinity of the water, describes the major contribution to regional sea level change with respect to the global mean. Density changes contract or expand the water, which also changes the sea surface height. This does not only occur at the surface, but at all layers in the ocean. Sea level change thus integrates ocean variability throughout the depth of the ocean. Sea level simulations of the different experiments are compared using long-term trends, multi-year anomalies and EOF-Analysis. Changes in temperature and salinity in the deeper ocean are used to describe the development of the gyre below the surface.

Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

2016-12-01

As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

Regional Sea Level Changes and Projections over North Pacific Driven by Air-sea interaction and Inter-basin Teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Zhu, J.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

After the launch of the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite since 1992, a series of regional sea level changes have been observed. The northwestern Pacific is among the most rapid sea-level-rise regions all over the world. The rising peak occurs around 40°N, with the value reaching 15cm in the past two decades. Moreover, when investigating the projection of global sea level changes using CMIP5 rcp simulations, we found that the northwestern Pacific remains one of the most rapid sea-level-rise regions in the 21st century. To investigate the physical dynamics of present and future sea level changes over the Pacific, we performed a series of numerical simulations with a hierarchy of climate models, including earth system model, ocean model, and atmospheric models, with different complexity. Simulation results indicate that this regional sea level change during the past two decades is mainly caused by the shift of the Kuroshio, which is largely driven by the surface wind anomaly associated with an intensified and northward shifted north Pacific sub-tropical high. Further analysis and simulations show that these changes of sub-tropical high can be primarily attributed to the regional SST forcing from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the remote SST forcings from the tropical Atlantic and the Indian Ocean. In the rcp scenario, on the other hand, two processes are crucial. Firstly, the meridional temperature SST gradient drives a northward wind anomaly across the equator, raising the sea level all over the North Pacific. Secondly, the atmospheric circulation changes around the sub-tropical Pacific further increase the sea level of the North Western Pacific. The coastal region around the Northwest Pacific is the most densely populated region around the world, therefore more attention must be paid to the sea level changes over this region, as suggested by our study.

Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

2018-05-01

Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

The Nature of Global Large-scale Sea Level Variability in Relation to Atmospheric Forcing: A Modeling Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fukumori, I.; Raghunath, R.; Fu, L. L.

1996-01-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equaiton model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to February 1996. The physical nature of the temporal variability from periods of days to a year, are examined based on spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements.

Indo-Pacific sea level variability during recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamanaka, G.; Tsujino, H.; Nakano, H.; Urakawa, S. L.; Sakamoto, K.

2016-12-01

Decadal variability of sea level in the Indo-Pacific region is investigated using a historical OGCM simulation. The OGCM driven by the atmospheric forcing removing long-term trends clearly exhibits decadal sea level variability in the Pacific Ocean, which is associated with eastern tropical Pacific thermal anomalies. During the period of 1977-1987, the sea level anomalies are positive in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show deviations from a north-south symmetric distribution, with strongly negative anomalies in the western tropical South Pacific. During the period of 1996-2006, in contrast, the sea level anomalies are negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific and show a nearly north-south symmetric pattern, with positive anomalies in both hemispheres. Concurrently, sea level anomalies in the south-eastern Indian Ocean vary with those in the western tropical Pacific. These sea level variations are closely related to large-scale wind fields. Indo-Pacific sea level distributions are basically determined by wind anomalies over the equatorial region as well as wind stress curl anomalies over the off-equatorial region.

North Atlantic sea-level variability during the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehrels, Roland; Long, Antony; Saher, Margot; Barlow, Natasha; Blaauw, Maarten; Haigh, Ivan; Woodworth, Philip

2014-05-01

Climate modelling studies have demonstrated that spatial and temporal sea-level variability observed in North Atlantic tide-gauge records is controlled by a complex array of processes, including ice-ocean mass exchange, freshwater forcing, steric changes, changes in wind fields, and variations in the speed of the Gulf Stream. Longer records of sea-level change, also covering the pre-industrial period, are important as a 'natural' and long-term baseline against which to test model performance and to place recent and future sea-level changes and ice-sheet change into a long-term context. Such records can only be reliably and continuously reconstructed from proxy methods. Salt marshes are capable of recording decimetre-scale sea-level variations with high precision and accuracy. In this paper we present four new high-resolution proxy records of (sub-) decadal sea-level variability reconstructed from salt-marsh sediments in Iceland, Nova Scotia, Maine and Connecticut that span the past 400 to 900 years. Our records, based on more than 100 new radiocarbon analyses, Pb-210 and Cs-137 measurements as well as other biological and geochemical age markers, together with hundreds of new microfossil observations from contemporary and fossil salt marshes, capture not only the rapid 20th century sea-level rise, but also small-scale (decimetre, multi-decadal) sea-level fluctuations during preceding centuries. We show that in Iceland three periods of rapid sea-level rise are synchronous with the three largest positive shifts of the reconstructed North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Along the North American east coast we compare our data with salt-marsh records from New Jersey, North Carolina and Florida and observe a trend of increased pre-industrial sea-level variability from south to north (Florida to Nova Scotia). Mass changes and freshwater forcing cannot explain this pattern. Based on comparisons with instrumental sea-level data and modelling studies we hypothesise that multi-decadal to centennial changes in wind and air pressure are more important than mass flux from land-based ice as drivers of North Atlantic sea-level variability during the last millennium.

Pleistocene reduction of polar ice caps: Evidence from Cariaco Basin marine sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.

2001-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise between 13 and 94 cm over the next 100 yr due to continued climate warming. The sea-level projections assume that polar ice sheets will remain stable or even increase on time scales of centuries, but controversial geologic evidence suggests that current polar ice sheets have been eliminated or greatly reduced during previous Pleistocene interglacials indicating that modern polar ice sheets have become unstable within the natural range of interglacial climates. Sea level may have been more than 20 m higher than today during a presumably very warm interglacial about 400 ka during marine isotope stage 11. Because of the implications for future sea level rise, additional study of the conflicting evidence for warmer conditions and higher sea level during marine isotope stage 11 is needed. Here we present microfossil and isotopic data from marine sediments of the Cariaco Basin supporting the interpretation that global sea level was 10-20 m higher than today during marine isotope stage 11. The increased sea level requires reduction in modern polar ice sheets and is consistent with the interpretation that the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet were absent or greatly reduced during marine isotope stage 11. Our results show a warm marine isotope stage 11 interglacial climate with sea level as high as or above modern sea level that lasted for 25 to 30 k.y. Variations in Earth's orbit around the sun (Milankovitch cycles) are considered to be a primary external force driving glacial-interglacial cycles. Current and marine isotope stage 11 Milankovitch forcing are very similar, suggesting that the present interglacial (Holocene) that began ca. 10 ka will continue for another 15 to 20 k.y. Therefore any anthropogenic climate warming will accelerate the natural process toward reduction in polar ice sheets. The potential for increased rates of sea level rise related to polar ice sheet decay should be considered as a potential natural hazard on centennial time scales.

Wind-induced interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and surface salinity on the Northwest Atlantic shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Chen, Changsheng; Hare, Jonathan A.; Davis, Cabell S.; Beardsley, Robert C.

2014-04-01

In this study, we examine the importance of regional wind forcing in modulating advective processes and hydrographic properties along the Northwest Atlantic shelf, with a focus on the Nova Scotian Shelf (NSS)-Gulf of Maine (GoM) region. Long-term observational data of alongshore wind stress, sea level slope, and along-shelf flow are analyzed to quantify the relationship between wind forcing and hydrodynamic responses on interannual time scales. Additionally, a simplified momentum balance model is used to examine the underlying mechanisms. Our results show significant correlation among the observed interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and alongshore wind stress in the NSS-GoM region. A mechanism is suggested to elucidate the role of wind in modulating the sea level slope and along-shelf flow: stronger southwesterly (northeastward) winds tend to weaken the prevailing southwestward flow over the shelf, building sea level in the upstream Newfoundland Shelf region, whereas weaker southwesterly winds allow stronger southwestward flow to develop, raising sea level in the GoM region. The wind-induced flow variability can influence the transport of low-salinity water from the Gulf of St. Lawrence to the GoM, explaining interannual variations in surface salinity distributions within the region. Hence, our results offer a viable mechanism, besides the freshening of remote upstream sources, to explain interannual patterns of freshening in the GoM.

Palaeogeography and relative sea-level history forcing eco-sedimentary contexts in Late Jurassic epicontinental shelves (Prebetic Zone, Betic Cordillera): An ecostratigraphic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olóriz, Federico; Reolid, Matías; Rodríguez-Tovar, Francisco J.

2012-02-01

The analysis of macroinvertebrate and foraminiferal assemblages from Upper Jurassic (Middle Oxfordian to Lower Kimmeridgian) epicontinental shelf deposits in the Prebetic (Betic Cordillera, southern Spain) reveals the influence of environmental changes. They are expressed as selected parameters in palaeogeographic and stratigraphic trends (litho- and microfacies, faunal composition, taphonomy), which are interpreted in the context of relative sea-level histories. Middle Oxfordian to early Kimmeridgian (Transversarium to Planula Chrones) rocks and faunal assemblages in comparatively distal sectors (distal shelf) show lower sedimentation rates (lumpy lithofacies), and higher proportions of ammonoids, planktic foraminifera, corrasion degree, microboring and encrustation. Landwards, towards the mid-shelf, eco-sedimentary conditions resulted in spongiolithic limestones and marl-limestone rhythmites with local development of microbial-sponge buildups. Greater distance from shore during relative sea-level highs accords with greater: (1) stratigraphic condensation; (2) abundance in ammonoids, planktic foraminifera and nubeculariids; and (3) degrees of corrasion, microboring and encrustation. These trends in faunal composition and taphonomy agree with backstepping phases, increasing ecospace and a longer exposition of shelly remains on the sea bottom. Decreasing distance from shore during relative sea-level lows relates to opposite trends, as evidenced by: (4) increasing terrigenous input and decreasing stratigraphic condensation; (5) impoverishment in ammonoids and planktic foraminifera; and (6) diminution of corrasion, microboring and encrustation. Phases of forestepping/progradation and aggradation, a reduction of ecospace for nekto-planktic organisms, and comparatively rapid burial of shell remains are interpreted to force the recorded trends. An ecostratigraphic approach is used here to correlate and characterise sea-level changes, applying high resolution stratigraphy to sections where the identification of relevant surfaces is more difficult. The changes in distance from shore and ecospace, triggered by relative sea-level fluctuations, are considered prime factors forcing trade-offs in faunal communities of the studied fossil assemblages. Ecostratigraphy was used as a template for the characterization, correlation and interpretation of relative sea-levels and associated sedimentary packages in a time span from just above the Milankovitch band to the million-year scale.

Common behaviour of the Adriatic and Black Seas level in the 20th century as response to a Mediterranean forcing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarascia, Luca; Stanica, Adrian; Dinu, Irina; Lionello, Piero

2017-04-01

The Adriatic and Black Seas are two marginal seas, both connected with the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, through the Otranto and Bosporus straits respectively. This contribution aims to evidence the fraction of the interannual sea level variability that is common to the two basins, likely an effect of the common forcing produced by Mediterranean Sea. In order to identify the common signal, the effect of the main local factors (wind, inverse barometer effect, steric effects, river runoff) determining the larger fraction of the interannual sea level variability have been identified and subtracted. Using 7 and 5 tide gauge timeseries located along the Adriatic and Black Sea coasts respectively, provided by PSMSL (Permanent Service of Mean Sea Level), two seamless timeseries representing the sea level of the basins from 1900 to 2009 have been produced. The comparison with satellite data, between 1993 and 2009, confirms that these reconstructions are representative of the actual sea level in the two basins (values are 0.87 for the Adriatic and 0.72 for the Black Sea). When considering local factors, for the Adriatic Sea the annual cycle of inverse barometer effect, steric contribution due to local temperature and salinity variations, and wind set-up have been computed. For the Black Sea, the wind factor (negligible in this case) has been replaced by the Danube river contribution estimated from the available discharge data of Sulina (one of the exits of the Danube delta). After subtracting these local factors from the observed sea level of each basin, the correlation between the residual time series amounts to 0.47, suggesting the presence of a common factor acting at Mediterranean scale, which can be attributed to the effect of the large-scale circulation on the mass exchange between the Mediterranean and the two local basins. The present analysis is still unable to explain a non-negligible fraction of interannual variability of sea level of the Black Sea. This is likely, to a substantial extent, due to uncertainties of hydrographic data caused by their irregular distribution in space and time and to the lack of regular records of past river discharge for most rivers contributing to the Black Sea.

Recent changes in the summer monsoon circulation and their impact on dynamics and thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratik, Kad; Parekh, Anant; Karmakar, Ananya; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-05-01

The present study examines changes in the low-level summer monsoon circulation over the Arabian Sea and their impact on the ocean dynamics using reanalysis data. The study confirms intensification and northward migration of low-level jet during 1979 to 2015. Further during the study period, an increase in the Arabian Sea upper ocean heat content is found in spite of a decreasing trend in the net surface heat flux, indicating the possible role of ocean dynamics in the upper ocean warming. Increase in the anti-cyclonic wind stress curl associated with the change in the monsoon circulation induces downwelling over the central Arabian Sea, favoring upper ocean warming. The decreasing trend of southward Ekman transport, a mechanism transporting heat from the land-locked north Indian Ocean to southern latitudes, also supports increasing trend of the upper ocean heat content. To reinstate and quantify the role of changing monsoon circulation in increasing the heat content over the Arabian Sea, sensitivity experiment is carried out using ocean general circulation model. In this experiment, the model is forced by inter-annual momentum forcing while rest of the forcing is climatological. Experiment reveals that the changing monsoon circulation increases the upper ocean heat content, effectively by enhancing downwelling processes and reducing southward heat transport, which strongly endorses our hypothesis that changing ocean dynamics associated with low-level monsoon circulation is causing the increasing trend in the heat content of the Arabian Sea.

Atoll groundwater movement and its response to climatic and sea-level fluctuations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oberle, Ferdinand; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Storlazzi, Curt

2017-01-01

Groundwater resources of low-lying atoll islands are threatened due to short-term and long-term changes in rainfall, wave climate, and sea level. A better understanding of how these forcings affect the limited groundwater resources was explored on Roi-Namur in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. As part of a 16-month study, a rarely recorded island-overwash event occurred and the island’s aquifer’s response was measured. The findings suggest that small-scale overwash events cause an increase in salinity of the freshwater lens that returns to pre-overwash conditions within one month. The overwash event is addressed in the context of climate-related local sea-level change, which suggests that overwash events and associated degradations in freshwater resources are likely to increase in severity in the future due to projected rises in sea level. Other forcings, such as severe rainfall events, were shown to have caused a sudden freshening of the aquifer, with salinity levels retuning to pre-rainfall levels within three months. Tidal forcing of the freshwater lens was observed in electrical resistivity profiles, high-resolution conductivity, groundwater-level well measurements and through submarine groundwater discharge calculations. Depth-specific geochemical pore water measurements further assessed and confirmed the distinct boundaries between fresh and saline water masses in the aquifer. The identification of the freshwater lens’ saline boundaries is essential for a quantitative evaluation of the aquifers freshwater resources and help understand how these resources may be impacted by climate change and anthropogenic activities.

Climate, ocean circulation, and sea level changes under stabilization and overshoot pathways to 1.5 K warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palter, Jaime B.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Paynter, David; John, Jasmin G.

2018-06-01

The Paris Agreement has initiated a scientific debate on the role that carbon removal - or net negative emissions - might play in achieving less than 1.5 K of global mean surface warming by 2100. Here, we probe the sensitivity of a comprehensive Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to three different atmospheric CO2 concentration pathways, two of which arrive at 1.5 K of warming in 2100 by very different pathways. We run five ensemble members of each of these simulations: (1) a standard Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5) scenario, which produces 2 K of surface warming by 2100 in our model; (2) a stabilization pathway in which atmospheric CO2 concentration never exceeds 440 ppm and the global mean temperature rise is approximately 1.5 K by 2100; and (3) an overshoot pathway that passes through 2 K of warming at mid-century, before ramping down atmospheric CO2 concentrations, as if using carbon removal, to end at 1.5 K of warming at 2100. Although the global mean surface temperature change in response to the overshoot pathway is similar to the stabilization pathway in 2100, this similarity belies several important differences in other climate metrics, such as warming over land masses, the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean acidification, sea ice coverage, and the global mean sea level change and its regional expressions. In 2100, the overshoot ensemble shows a greater global steric sea level rise and weaker AMOC mass transport than in the stabilization scenario, with both of these metrics close to the ensemble mean of RCP4.5. There is strong ocean surface cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Ocean in response to overshoot forcing due to perturbations in the ocean circulation. Thus, overshoot forcing in this model reduces the rate of sea ice loss in the Labrador, Nordic, Ross, and Weddell seas relative to the stabilized pathway, suggesting a negative radiative feedback in response to the early rapid warming. Finally, the ocean perturbation in response to warming leads to strong pathway dependence of sea level rise in northern North American cities, with overshoot forcing producing up to 10 cm of additional sea level rise by 2100 relative to stabilization forcing.

Sea level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Eemian interglacial: Review of previous work with focus on the surface mass balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plach, Andreas; Hestnes Nisancioglu, Kerim

2016-04-01

The contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) to the global sea level rise during the Eemian interglacial (about 125,000 year ago) was the focus of many studies in the past. A main reason for the interest in this period is the considerable warmer climate during the Eemian which is often seen as an equivalent for possible future climate conditions. Simulated sea level rise during the Eemian can therefore be used to better understand a possible future sea level rise. The most recent assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) gives an overview of several studies and discusses the possible implications for a future sea level rise. The report also reveals the big differences between these studies in terms of simulated GIS extent and corresponding sea level rise. The present study gives a more exhaustive review of previous work discussing sea level rise from the GIS during the Eemian interglacial. The smallest extents of the GIS simulated by various authors are shown and summarized. A focus is thereby given to the methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. A hypothesis of the present work is that the varying results of the previous studies can largely be explained due to the various methods used to calculate the surface mass balance. In addition, as a first step for future work, the surface mass balance of the GIS for a proxy-data derived forcing ("index method") and a direct forcing with a General Circulation Model (GCM) are shown and discussed.

Decadal-timescale estuarine geomorphic change under future scenarios of climate and sediment supply

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, N.K.; Schoellhamer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales. ?? The Author(s) 2009.

Response of the North Atlantic dynamic sea level and circulation to Greenland meltwater and climate change in an eddy-permitting ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saenko, Oleg A.; Yang, Duo; Myers, Paul G.

2017-10-01

The response of the North Atlantic dynamic sea surface height (SSH) and ocean circulation to Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) meltwater fluxes is investigated using a high-resolution model. The model is forced with either present-day-like or projected warmer climate conditions. In general, the impact of meltwater on the North Atlantic SSH and ocean circulation depends on the surface climate. In the two major regions of deep water formation, the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, the basin-mean SSH increases with the increase of the GrIS meltwater flux. This SSH increase correlates with the decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, while in the Labrador Sea the warming forcing and GrIS meltwater input lead to sea level rise, in the Nordic Seas these two forcings have an opposite influence on the convective mixing and basin-mean SSH (relative to the global mean). The warming leads to less sea-ice cover in the Nordic Seas, which favours stronger surface heat loss and deep mixing, lowering the SSH and generally increasing the transport of the East Greenland Current. In the Labrador Sea, the increased SSH and weaker deep convection are reflected in the decreased transport of the Labrador Current (LC), which closes the subpolar gyre in the west. Among the two major components of the LC transport, the thermohaline and bottom transports, the former is less sensitive to the GrIS meltwater fluxes under the warmer climate. The SSH difference across the LC, which is a component of the bottom velocity, correlates with the long-term mean AMOC rate.

Dynamics of Andaman Sea circulation and its role in connecting the equatorial Indian Ocean to the Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Abhisek; Shankar, D.; McCreary, J. P.; Vinayachandran, P. N.; Mukherjee, A.

2017-04-01

Circulation in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is driven not only by local winds, but are also strongly forced by the reflection of equatorial Kelvin waves (EKWs) from the eastern boundary of the Indian Ocean. The equatorial influence attains its peak during the monsoon-transition period when strong eastward currents force the strong EKWs along the equator. The Andaman Sea, lying between the Andaman and Nicobar island chains to its west and Indonesia, Thailand, and Myanmar to the south, east, and north, is connected to the equatorial ocean and the BoB by three primary passages, the southern (6°N), middle (10°N), and northern (15°N) channels. We use ocean circulation models, together with satellite altimeter data, to study the pathways by which equatorial signals pass through the Andaman Sea to the BoB and associated dynamical interactions in the process. The mean coastal circulation within the Andaman Sea and around the islands is primarily driven by equatorial forcing, with the local winds forcing a weak sea-level signal. On the other hand, the current forced by local winds is comparable to that forced remotely from the equator. Our results suggest that the Andaman and Nicobar Islands not only influence the circulation within the Andaman Sea, but also significantly alter the circulation in the interior bay and along the east coast of India, implying that they need to be represented accurately in numerical models of the Indian Ocean.

Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Nazarenko, Larissa

2004-01-13

Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of +0.3 W/m(2) in the Northern Hemisphere. The "efficacy" of this forcing is approximately 2, i.e., for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO(2) in altering global surface air temperature. This indirect soot forcing may have contributed to global warming of the past century, including the trend toward early springs in the Northern Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, and melting land ice and permafrost. If, as we suggest, melting ice and sea level rise define the level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, then reducing soot emissions, thus restoring snow albedos to pristine high values, would have the double benefit of reducing global warming and raising the global temperature level at which dangerous anthropogenic interference occurs. However, soot contributions to climate change do not alter the conclusion that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been the main cause of recent global warming and will be the predominant climate forcing in the future.

Respiratory function in pregnancy at sea level and at high altitude.

PubMed

McAuliffe, Fionnuala; Kametas, Nikos; Espinoza, Jimmy; Greenough, Anne; Nicolaides, Kypros

2004-04-01

To determine the effect of pregnancy on respiratory function in a non-Caucasian group and determine whether there was an interaction between pregnancy and altitude of residence. Prospective cross sectional study. Antenatal clinics in Peru, at sea level in Lima and at high altitude in Cerro de Pasco. Peruvian women with singleton pregnancies; 122 living at sea level and 192 living at 4300 m altitude in the Peruvian Andes. At each location, 19 non-pregnant women were also studied. Respiratory function was measured in pregnant and non-pregnant women living at sea level and at 4300 m. Forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR), total lung capacity (TLC), inspiratory capacity (IC), residual volume (RV), expiratory residual volume (ERV) and functional residual capacity (FRC). At sea level, RV and TLC were higher in the third compared with the first trimester (P < 0.05). At high altitude, FEV1 (P < 0.01), ERV (P < 0.01) and FRC (P < 0.01) were lower in the third compared with the first trimester. Pregnant and non-pregnant women at high altitude were 4 cm shorter (P < 0.0001) and had larger lung volumes (P < 0.01); their total lung capacities were approximately 1 L greater than women living at sea level (P < 0.0001). These results suggest that the effect of pregnancy on the respiratory function of healthy women is influenced by altitude of residence.

Projected Sea Level Rise and Changes in Extreme Storm Surge and Wave Events During the 21st Century in the Region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, M. D.; Cannaby, H.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.

2016-02-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m(0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5(8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaby, H.; Palmer, M. D.; Howard, T.; Bricheno, L.; Calvert, D.; Krijnen, J.; Wood, R.; Tinker, J.; Bunney, C.; Harle, J.; Saulter, A.; O'Neill, C.; Bellingham, C.; Lowe, J.

2015-12-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea-level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the IPCC AR5. Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ~ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled (~ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980-2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) scenarios respectively. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2 year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ~ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

Quantitative controls on location and architecture of carbonate depositional sequences: Upper miocene, cabo de gata region, SE Spain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franseen, E.K.; Goldstein, R.H.; Farr, M.R.

1997-01-01

Sequence stratigraphy, pinning-point relative sea-level curves, and magnetostratigraphy provide the quantitative data necessary to understand how rates of sea-level change and different substrate paleoslopes are dominant controls on accumulation rate, carbonate depositional sequence location, and internal architecture. Five third-order (1-10 my) and fourth-order (0.1-1.0 my) upper Miocene carbonate depositional sequences (DS1A, DS1B, DS2, DS3, TCC) formed with superimposed higher-frequency sea-level cycles in an archipelago setting in SE Spain. Overall, our study indicates when areas of high substrate slope (> 15??) are in shallow water, independent of climate, the location and internal architecture of carbonate deposits are not directly linked to sea-level position but, instead, are controlled by location of gently sloping substrates and processes of bypass. In contrast, if carbonate sediments are generated where substrates of low slope ( 15.6 cm/ky to ??? 2 cm/ky and overall relative sea level rose at rates of 17-21.4 cm/ky. Higher frequency sea-level rates were about 111 to more than 260 cm/ky, producing onlapping, fining- (deepening-) upward cycles. Decreasing accumulation rates resulted from decreasing surface area for shallow-water sediment production, drowning of shallow-water substrates, and complex sediment dispersal related to the archipelago setting. Typical systems tract and parasequence development should not be expected in "bypass ramp" settings; facies of onlapping strata do not track base level and are likely to be significantly different compared to onlapping strata associated with coastal onlap. Basal and upper DS2 reef megabreccias (indicating the transition from cool to warmer climatic conditions) were eroded from steep upslope positions and redeposited downslope onto areas of gentle substrate during rapid sea-level falls (> 22.7 cm/ky) of short duration. Such rapid sea-level falls and presence of steep slopes are not conducive to formation of forced regressive systems tracts composed of down-stepping reef clinoforms. The DS3 reefal platform formed where shallow water coincided with gently sloping substrates created by earlier deposition. Slow progradation (0.39-1.45 km/my) is best explained by the lack of an extensive bank top, progressively falling sea level, and low productivity resulting from siliciclastic debris and excess nutrients shed from nearby volcanic islands. Although DS3 strata were deposited during a third-order relative sea-level cycle, a typical transgressive systems tract is not recognizable, indicating that the initial relative rise in sea level was too rapid (??? 19 cm/ky). Downstepping reefs, forming a forced regressive systems tract, were deposited during the relative sea-level fall at the end of DS3, indicating that relatively slow rates of fall (10 cm/ky or less) over favorable paleoslope conditions are conducive to generation of forced regressive systems tracts consisting of downstepping reef clinoforms. The TCC sequence consists of four shallow-water sedimentary cycles that were deposited during a 400 ky to 100 ky time span. Such shallow-water cycles, typical of many platforms, form only where shallow water intersects gently sloping substrates. The relative thicknesses of cycles (< 2 m to 15 m thick), magnitudes of relative sea-level fluctuations associated with each cycle (25-30 m), high rates of relative sea-level fluctuations (minimum of 25-120 cm/ky), and the widespread distribution of similar TCC cycles in the Mediterranean and elsewhere are supportive of a glacio-eustatic

Quantitative controls on location and architecture of carbonate depositional sequences: upper miocene, cabo de gata region, se Spain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Franseen, E.K.; Goldstein, R.H.; Farr, M.R.

1998-01-01

Sequence stratigraphy, pinning-point relative sea-level curves, and magnetostratigraphy provide the quantitative data necessary to understand how rates of sea-level change and different substrate paleoslopes are dominant controls on accumulation rate, carbonate depositional sequence location, and internal architecture. Five third-order (1-10 my) and fourth-order (0.1-1.0 my) upper Miocene carbonate depositional sequences (DS1A, DS1B, DS2, DS3, TCC) formed with superimposed higher-frequency sea-level cycles in an archipelago setting in SE Spain. Overall, our study indicates when areas of high substrate slope (> 15??) are in shallow water, independent of climate, the location and internal architecture of carbonate deposits are not directly linked to sea-level position but, instead, are controlled by location of gently sloping substrates and processes of bypass. In contrast, if carbonate sediments are generated where substrates of low slope ( 15.6 cm/ky to ??? 2 cm/ky and overall relative sea level rose at rates of 17-21.4 cm/ky. Higher frequency sea-level rates were about 111 to more than 260 cm/ky, producing onlapping, fining- (deepening-) upward cycles. Decreasing accumulation rates resulted from decreasing surface area for shallow-water sediment production, drowning of shallow-water substrates, and complex sediment dispersal related to the archipelago setting. Typical systems tract and parasequence development should not be expected in "bypass ramp" settings; facies of onlapping strata do not track base level and are likely to be significantly different compared to onlapping strata associated with coastal onlap. Basal and upper DS2 reef megabreccias (indicating the transition from cool to warmer climatic conditions) were eroded from steep upslope positions and redeposited downslope onto areas of gentle substrate during rapid sea-level falls (> 22.7 cm/ky) of short duration. Such rapid sea-level falls and presence of steep slopes are not conducive to formation of forced regressive systems tracts composed of downstepping reef clinoforms. The DS3 reefal platform formed where shallow water coincided with gently sloping substrates created by earlier deposition. Slow progradation (0.39-1.45 km/my) is best explained by the lack of an extensive bank top, progressively falling sea level, and low productivity resulting from siliciclastic debris and excess nutrients shed from nearby volcanic islands. Although DS3 strata were deposited during a third-order relative sea-level cycle, a typical transgresse??e systems tract is not recognizable, indicating that the initial relative rise in sea level was too rapid (??? 19 cm/ky). Downstepping reefs, forming a forced regressive systems tract, were deposited during the relative sea-level fall at the end of DS3, indicating that relatively slow rates of fall (10 cm/ky or less) over favorable paleoslope conditions are conducive to generation of forced regressive systems tracts consisting of downstepping reef clinoforms. The TCC sequence consists of four shallow -water sedimentary cycles that were deposited during a 400 ky to 100 ky time span. Such shallow-water cycles, typical of many platforms, form only where shallow water intersects gently sloping substrates. The relative thicknesses of cycles (< 2 m to 15 m thick), magnitudes of relative sea-level fluctuations associated with each cycle (25-30 m), high rates of relative sea-level fluctuations (minimum of 25-120 cm/ky), and the widespread distribution of similar TCC cycles in the Mediterranean and elsewhere are supportive of a glacio-eustati

Measurement of gravitational time dilation: An undergraduate research project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, M. Shane; Leveille, Michael D.; Dominguez, Armand R.; Gebhard, Brian B.; Huestis, Samuel E.; Steele, Jeffrey; Patterson, Brian; Sell, Jerry F.; Serna, Mario; Gearba, M. Alina; Olesen, Robert; O'Shea, Patrick; Schiller, Jonathan

2017-10-01

General relativity predicts that clocks run more slowly near massive objects. The effect is small—a clock at sea level lags behind one 1000 m above sea level by only 9.4 ns/day. Here, we demonstrate that a measurement of this effect can be done by undergraduate students. Our paper describes an experiment conducted by undergraduate researchers at Colorado College and the United States Air Force Academy to measure gravitational time dilation. The measurement was done by comparing the signals generated by a GPS frequency standard (sea-level time) to a Cs-beam frequency standard at seven different altitudes above sea level. We found that our measurements are consistent with the predictions of general relativity.

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade

PubMed Central

Price, Stephen F.; Payne, Antony J.; Howat, Ian M.; Smith, Benjamin E.

2011-01-01

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing. PMID:21576500

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade.

PubMed

Price, Stephen F; Payne, Antony J; Howat, Ian M; Smith, Benjamin E

2011-05-31

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.

Sea-level and deep-sea-temperature variability over the past 5.3 million years.

PubMed

Rohling, E J; Foster, G L; Grant, K M; Marino, G; Roberts, A P; Tamisiea, M E; Williams, F

2014-04-24

Ice volume (and hence sea level) and deep-sea temperature are key measures of global climate change. Sea level has been documented using several independent methods over the past 0.5 million years (Myr). Older periods, however, lack such independent validation; all existing records are related to deep-sea oxygen isotope (δ(18)O) data that are influenced by processes unrelated to sea level. For deep-sea temperature, only one continuous high-resolution (Mg/Ca-based) record exists, with related sea-level estimates, spanning the past 1.5 Myr. Here we present a novel sea-level reconstruction, with associated estimates of deep-sea temperature, which independently validates the previous 0-1.5 Myr reconstruction and extends it back to 5.3 Myr ago. We find that deep-sea temperature and sea level generally decreased through time, but distinctly out of synchrony, which is remarkable given the importance of ice-albedo feedbacks on the radiative forcing of climate. In particular, we observe a large temporal offset during the onset of Plio-Pleistocene ice ages, between a marked cooling step at 2.73 Myr ago and the first major glaciation at 2.15 Myr ago. Last, we tentatively infer that ice sheets may have grown largest during glacials with more modest reductions in deep-sea temperature.

Constraining coastal change: A morpho-sedimentological concept to infer sea-level oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauz, Barbara; Shen, Zhixiong

2016-04-01

One of the responders to Milankovitch-scale climate changes is sea level which, in turn, is a driver of coastal change. In literature, the sedimentary sequences representing the coastal change are often linked to high sea-level stands, to intermediate sea-level positions or to regressive shorelines. We note apparent contradictions that indicate a lack of concept and inconsistent usage of sea level-related terms. To overcome this, we combine an integrated morpho-sedimentological concept for microtidal, mid-latitudinal coasts with chronologies based on Bayesian statistics. The concept regards the coastal sedimentary system as a depositional complex consisting of shallow-marine, aeolian and alluvial facies. These facies are in juxtaposition and respond simultaneously to external forcing. Bayesian statistics constrains the timing of the sequence based on optical or radiocarbon ages. Here, we present the site Hergla located on the North African coast of the central Mediterranean Sea as a case study to illustrate how the approach helps eliminating contradictions. The site has been cited frequently for confirming the hypothesis of a global two peak sea-level highstand during the last interglacial (MIS 5e). The ~2 km cliff exposure at Hergla was surveyed, mapped, logged and sampled for further describing the sediments and their depositional environment through thin section and Bayesian modelling of optical ages. Using our concept based on sequence stratigraphy tools, the section is interpreted as representing a coastal barrier with two bounding surfaces in the succession. Both surfaces mark the falling sea level of, first, MIS 5e and, second, MIS 5a and hence bound the falling stage system tract of a forced regression. Part of the deposits between the two surfaces are pulled up onto the shoulder of a small rising horst and the associated tectonic event coincided with the MIS 5a sea-level rise enhancing locally the accommodation space for a second foreshore environment. Our presentation will provide theoretical background of the concept and critically discuss the global dataset for last interglacial sea-level oscillations using both the stratigraphic record and age distributions.

Coralgal reef morphology records punctuated sea-level rise during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Khanna, Pankaj; Droxler, André W; Nittrouer, Jeffrey A; Tunnell, John W; Shirley, Thomas C

2017-10-19

Coralgal reefs preserve the signatures of sea-level fluctuations over Earth's history, in particular since the Last Glacial Maximum 20,000 years ago, and are used in this study to indicate that punctuated sea-level rise events are more common than previously observed during the last deglaciation. Recognizing the nature of past sea-level rises (i.e., gradual or stepwise) during deglaciation is critical for informing models that predict future vertical behavior of global oceans. Here we present high-resolution bathymetric and seismic sonar data sets of 10 morphologically similar drowned reefs that grew during the last deglaciation and spread 120 km apart along the south Texas shelf edge. Herein, six commonly observed terrace levels are interpreted to be generated by several punctuated sea-level rise events forcing the reefs to shrink and backstep through time. These systematic and common terraces are interpreted to record punctuated sea-level rise events over timescales of decades to centuries during the last deglaciation, previously recognized only during the late Holocene.

Improvement in Simulation of Eurasian Winter Climate Variability with a Realistic Arctic Sea Ice Condition in an Atmospheric GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Ham, Yoo-Geun; Jeong, Jee-Hoon; Kug, Jong-Seong

2012-01-01

The present study investigates how much a realistic Arctic sea ice condition can contribute to improve simulation of the winter climate variation over the Eurasia region. Model experiments are set up using different sea ice boundary conditions over the past 24 years (i.e., 1988-2011). One is an atmospheric model inter-comparison (AMIP) type of run forced with observed sea-surface temperature (SST), sea ice, and greenhouse gases (referred to as Exp RSI), and the other is the same as Exp RSI except for the sea ice forcing, which is a repeating climatological annual cycle (referred to as Exp CSI). Results show that Exp RSI produces the observed dominant pattern of Eurasian winter temperatures and their interannual variation better than Exp CSI (correlation difference up to approx. 0.3). Exp RSI captures the observed strong relationship between the sea ice concentration near the Barents and Kara seas and the temperature anomaly across Eurasia, including northeastern Asia, which is not well captured in Exp CSI. Lagged atmospheric responses to sea ice retreat are examined using observations to understand atmospheric processes for the Eurasian cooling response including the Arctic temperature increase, sea-level pressure increase, upper-level jet weakening and cold air outbreak toward the mid-latitude. The reproducibility of these lagged responses by Exp RSI is also evaluated.

Sea-level records at ~80 ka from tectonically stable platforms: Florida and Bermuda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ludwig, K. R.; Muhs, D.R.; Simmons, K.R.; Halley, R.B.; Shinn, E.A.

1996-01-01

Studies from technically active coasts on New Guinea and Barbados have suggested that sea level at ???80 ka was significantly lower than present, whereas data from the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of North America indicate an ???80 ka sea level close to that of the present. We determined ages of corals from a shallow submerged reef off the Florida Keys and an emergent marine deposit on Bermuda. Both localities are on tectonically stable platforms distant from plate boundaries. Uranium-series ages show that corals at both localities grew during the ???80 ka sea-level highstand, and geologic data show that sea level at that time was no lower than 7-9 m below present (Florida) and may have been 1-2 m above present (Bermuda). The ice-volume discrepancy of the 80 ka sea-level estimates is greater than the volume of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets. Comparison of our ages with high-latitude insolation values indicates that the sea-level stand near the present at ???80 ka could have been orbitally forced.

Regional variability of sea level change using a global ocean model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombard, A.; Garric, G.; Cazenave, A.; Penduff, T.; Molines, J.

2007-12-01

We analyse different runs of a global eddy-permitting (1/4 degree) ocean model driven by atmospheric forcing to evaluate regional variability of sea level change over 1993-2001, 1998-2006 and over the long period 1958-2004. No data assimilation is performed in the model, contrarily to previous similar studies (Carton et al., 2005; Wunsch et al., 2007; Koehl and Stammer, 2007). We compare the model-based regional sea level trend patterns with the one deduced from satellite altimetry data. We examine respective contributions of steric and bottom pressure changes to total regional sea level changes. For the steric component, we analyze separately the contributions of temperature and salinity changes as well as upper and lower ocean contributions.

Arctic Ocean Freshwater Content and Its Decadal Memory of Sea-Level Pressure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Helen L.; Cornish, Sam B.; Kostov, Yavor; Beer, Emma; Lique, Camille

2018-05-01

Arctic freshwater content (FWC) has increased significantly over the last two decades, with potential future implications for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation downstream. We investigate the relationship between Arctic FWC and atmospheric circulation in the control run of a coupled climate model. Multiple linear lagged regression is used to extract the response of total Arctic FWC to a hypothetical step increase in the principal components of sea-level pressure. The results demonstrate that the FWC adjusts on a decadal timescale, consistent with the idea that wind-driven ocean dynamics and eddies determine the response of Arctic Ocean circulation and properties to a change in surface forcing, as suggested by idealized models and theory. Convolving the response of FWC to a change in sea-level pressure with historical sea-level pressure variations reveals that the recent observed increase in Arctic FWC is related to natural variations in sea-level pressure.

The diagnosis and forecast system of hydrometeorological characteristics for the White, Barents, Kara and Pechora Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fomin, Vladimir; Diansky, Nikolay; Gusev, Anatoly; Kabatchenko, Ilia; Panasenkova, Irina

2017-04-01

The diagnosis and forecast system for simulating hydrometeorological characteristics of the Russian Western Arctic seas is presented. It performs atmospheric forcing computation with the regional non-hydrostatic atmosphere model Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with spatial resolution 15 km, as well as computation of circulation, sea level, temperature, salinity and sea ice with the marine circulation model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) with spatial resolution 2.7 km, and the computation of wind wave parameters using the Russian wind-wave model (RWWM) with spatial resolution 5 km. Verification of the meteorological characteristics is done for air temperature, air pressure, wind velocity, water temperature, currents, sea level anomaly, wave characteristics such as wave height and wave period. The results of the hydrometeorological characteristic verification are presented for both retrospective and forecast computations. The retrospective simulation of the hydrometeorological characteristics for the White, Barents, Kara and Pechora Seas was performed with the diagnosis and forecast system for the period 1986-2015. The important features of the Kara Sea circulation are presented. Water exchange between Pechora and Kara Seas is described. The importance is shown of using non-hydrostatic atmospheric circulation model for the atmospheric forcing computation in coastal areas. According to the computation results, extreme values of hydrometeorological characteristics were obtained for the Russian Western Arctic seas.

A Note on the Barotropic Response of Sea Level to Time-Dependent Wind Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Davidson, Roger A.

1995-01-01

This study examines the extent to which sea level variations at periods between 30 days and 1 year and spatial scales greater than 1000 km can be described by the wind- driven linear barotropic vorticity dynamics. The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric observations of sea level and the wind products of the National Meteorological Center are used as the database for the study. Each term of the linear barotropic vorticity equation was evaluated by averaging over regions of 10 deg x 10 deg. In most of the open ocean the result of the analysis suggests that the sea level variabilities at the scales considered cannot be fully described by the equation; the apparent net vorticity change is more than what can be explained by the local wind stress curl. In the few regions where the wind stress curl is strong enough to balance the vorticity budget, predominantly in the northeast Pacific and the southeast Pacific, the balance is basically achieved in terms of the time-dependent topographic Sverdrup relation, namely, the balance between the advection of the planetary vorticity plus the topography-induced vorticity and the forcing by the wind stress curl.

Sea-level variability over the Common Era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Engelhart, Simon; Little, Chris

2017-04-01

The Common Era (CE) sea-level response to climate forcing, and its relationship to centennial-timescale climate variability such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA), is fragmentary relative to other proxy-derived climate records (e.g. atmospheric surface temperature). However, the Atlantic coast of North America provides a rich sedimentary record of CE relative sea level with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to inform mechanisms underlying regional and global sea level variability and their relationship to other climate proxies. This coast has a small tidal range, improving the precision of sea-level reconstructions. Coastal subsidence (from glacial isostatic adjustment, GIA) creates accommodation space that is filled by salt-marsh peat and preserves accurate and precise sea-level indicators and abundant material for radiocarbon dating. In addition to longer term GIA induced land-level change from ongoing collapse of the Laurentide forebulge, these records are ideally situated to capture climate-driven sea level changes. The western North Atlantic Ocean sea level is sensitive to static equilibrium effects from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as well as large-scale changes in ocean circulation and winds. Our reconstructions reveal two distinct patterns in sea-level during the CE along the United States Atlantic coast: (1) South of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to Florida sea-level rise is essentially flat, with the record dominated by long-term geological processes until the onset of historic rates of rise in the late 19th century; (2) North of Cape Hatteras to Connecticut, sea level rise to maximum around 1000CE, a sea-level minimum around 1500 CE, and a long-term sea-level rise through the second half of the second millennium. The northern-intensified sea-level fall beginning 1000 is coincident with shifts toward persistent positive NAO-like atmospheric states inferred from other proxy records and is consistent with climate model simulations forced with sustained NAO-like heat fluxes. Changes in the wind-driven ocean circulation may also contribute to alongshore sea level variability over the CE. To reveal global mean sea level variability, we combine the salt-marsh data from North American Atlantic coast with tide-gauge records and other high resolution proxies from the northern and southern hemispheres. All reconstructions are from coasts that are tectonically stable and are based on four types of proxy archives (archaeological indicators, coral microatolls, salt marsh sediments and vermetid [mollusk] bioconstructions) that are best capable of capturing submeter-scale RSL changes. The database consists of reconstructions from Australasia (n = 2), Europe (n=5), Greenland (n = 3), North America (n = 6), the northern Gulf of Mexico (n = 3), the Mediterranean (n = 1), South Africa (n = 2), South America (n =2) and the South Pacific (n =3). We apply a noisy-input Gaussian process spatio-temporal modeling framework, which identifies a long-term falling global mean sea-level, interrupted in the middle of the 19th century by an acceleration yielding a 20th century rate of rise extremely likely (probability P = 0:95) faster than any previous century in the CE.

Disentangling sea-surface temperature and anthropogenic aerosol influences on recent trends in South Asian monsoon rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Nitin; Venkataraman, Chandra; Muduchuru, Kaushik; Ghosh, Subimal; Mondal, Arpita

2018-05-01

Recent studies point to combined effects of changes in regional land-use, anthropogenic aerosol forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) gradient on declining trends in the South Asian monsoon (SAM). This study attempted disentangling the effects produced by changes in SST gradient from those by aerosol levels in an atmospheric general circulation model. Two pairs of transient ensemble simulations were made, for a 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, with evolving versus climatological SSTs and with anthropogenic aerosol emissions fixed at 1971 versus 2010, in each case with evolution of the other forcing element, as well as GHGs. Evolving SST was linked to a widespread feedback on increased surface temperature, reduced land-sea thermal contrast and a weakened Hadley circulation, with weakening of cross-equatorial transport of moisture transport towards South Asia. Increases in anthropogenic aerosol levels (1971 versus 2010), led to an intensification of drying in the peninsular Indian region, through several regional pathways. Aerosol forcing induced north-south asymmetries in temperature and sea-level pressure response, and a cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal, leading to an easterly flow, which opposes the monsoon flow, suppressing moisture transport over peninsular India. Further, aerosol induced decreases in convection, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, evaporation flux and cloud fraction, in the peninsular region, were spatially congruent with reduced convective and stratiform rainfall. Overall, evolution of SST acted through a weakening of cross-equatorial moisture flow, while increases in aerosol levels acted through suppression of Arabian Sea moisture transport, as well as, of convection and vertical moisture transport, to influence the suppression of SAM rainfall.

Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

2016-05-01

Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically very small under the more severe RCP8.5 scenario. We conclude that changes to long-term mean sea level constitute the dominant signal of change to the projected inundation risk for Singapore during the 21st century. We note that the largest recorded surge residual in the Singapore Strait of ˜ 84 cm lies between the central and upper estimates of sea level rise by 2100, highlighting the vulnerability of the region.

How much can Greenland melt? An upper bound on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through surface melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.

2015-12-01

With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound, assuming negligible longwave radiation and albedo near the maximum observed for freshly fallen snow. Even under this scenarios preliminary estimates suggest tens of centimeters of sea level rise by 2100.

Environmental Assessment: Demolish 452 at Grand Forks Air Force Base

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

Data Sheet MSL Mean Sea Level µg/m3 Micrograms Per Meter Cubed NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NAGPRA Native American Graves...elm, cottonwood, and green ash. Dutch elm disease has killed many of the elms. European buckthorn (a highly invasive exotic species), chokecherry...level, with local relief being less that one foot. Land at the base is relatively flat; with elevations ranging from 880 to 920 ft mean sea level (MSL

Diachronous high-latitude North Atlantic temperature evolution across the last interglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, A. E.; He, F.; Clark, P. U.

2017-12-01

A direct response of Northern Hemisphere temperatures to last interglacial boreal summer insolation forcing and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration would predict early interglacial warmth followed by a gradual cooling trend across the last interglaciation (128-116 ka). In contrast, some Labrador and Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) sea surface temperature (SST) records show relatively cool early last-interglacial SSTs followed by warming in the latter part of the interglaciation. This phenomenon has sometimes been attributed to meltwater forcing from continued retreat of the Greenland ice sheet through the last interglaciation that suppressed North Atlantic overturning circulation, in agreement with proxy records. Here we investigate this observation with the first fully-coupled transient general circulation model simulation of the last interglacial period using CCSM3. Termination II deglacial meltwater forcing is stopped at 129 ka and the subsequent simulation is forced by changing orbital parameters and atmospheric greenhouse gases. We find that Labrador and GIN SSTs remain relatively cool followed by warming to peak interglacial temperatures after 124 ka. We show that this delayed warming is due to reduced convection in the GIN sea, despite a cessation of meltwater forcing at 129 ka, with convection onset at 124 ka and attendant sea-ice retreat in response to orbital- and greenhouse gas-forcing alone. Our results demonstrate that delayed high-latitude North Atlantic SST warming during the last interglaciation does not necessitate meltwater forcing from the Greenland ice sheet, rectifying the apparent disconnect between a small meltwater forcing (<2.5 m of sea-level rise over 8 ka, or <0.004 Sverdrups into the Labrador and GIN seas) and a relatively large North Atlantic overturning response.

The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, Katharine; Grimm, Rosina; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Marino, Gianluca; Rohling, Eelco

2016-04-01

The periodic deposition of organic rich layers or 'sapropels' in eastern Mediterranean sediments can be linked to orbital-driven changes in the strength and location of (east) African monsoon precipitation. Sapropels are therefore an extremely useful tool for establishing orbital chronologies, and for providing insights about African monsoon variability on long timescales. However, the link between sapropel formation, insolation variations, and African monsoon 'maxima' is not straightforward because other processes (notably, sea-level rise) may have contributed to their deposition, and because there are uncertainties about monsoon-sapropel phase relationships. For example, different phasings are observed between Holocene and early Pleistocene sapropels, and between proxy records and model simulations. To address these issues, we have established geochemical and ice-volume-corrected planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records for sapropels S1, S3, S4, and S5 in core LC21 from the southern Aegean Sea. The records have a radiometrically constrained chronology that has already been synchronised with the Red Sea relative sea-level record, and this allows us to examine in detail the timing of sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level, and African monsoon changes. Our records suggest that the onset of sapropel deposition and monsoon run-off was near synchronous, yet insolation-sapropel/monsoon phasings varied, whereby monsoon/sapropel onset was relatively delayed (with respect to insolation maxima) after glacial terminations. We suggest that large meltwater discharges into the North Atlantic modified the timing of sapropel deposition by delaying the timing of peak African monsoon run-off. Hence, the previous assumption of a systematic 3-kyr lag between insolation maxima and sapropel midpoints may lead to overestimated insolation-sapropel phasings. We also surmise that both monsoon run-off and sea-level rise were important buoyancy-forcing mechanisms for the studied sapropels, and their relative influences differed per sapropel case. For instance, sea-level rise was clearly important for sapropel S1, whereas monsoon forcing was likely more important for sapropel S5.

The effect of Ocean resolution, and external forcing in the correlation between SLP and Sea Ice Concentration in the Pre-PRIMAVERA GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Koenigk, Torben

2017-04-01

Recently, an observational study has shown that sea ice variations in Barents Sea seem to be important for the sign of the following winter NAO (Koenigk et al. 2016). It has also been found that amplitude and extension of the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) patterns are modulated by Greenland and Labrador Seas ice areas. Therefore, Earth System Models participating in the PRIMAVERA Project are used to study the impact of resolution in ocean models in reproducing the previously mentioned observed correlation patterns between Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) and the SLP. When using ensembles of high ocean resolution (0.25 degrees) and low ocean resolution (1 degree) simulations, we found that the correlation sign between sea ice concentration over the Central Arctic, the Barents/Kara Seas and the Northern Hemisphere is similar to observations in the higher ocean resolution ensemble, although the amplitude is underestimated. In contrast, the low resolution ensemble shows opposite correlation patterns compared to observations. In general, high ocean resolution simulations show more similar results to observations than the low resolution simulations. Similarly, in order to study the mentioned observed SIC-SLP relationship reported by Koenigk et al (2016), we analyzed the impact of the use of pre-industrial and historical external forcing in the simulations. When using same forcing ensembles, we found that the correlation sign between SIC and SLP does not show a systematic behavior dependent on the use of different external forcing (pre-industrial or present day) as it does when using different ocean resolutions.

Observation-Driven Estimation of the Spatial Variability of 20th Century Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlington, B. D.; Burgos, A.; Thompson, P. R.; Landerer, F. W.; Piecuch, C. G.; Adhikari, S.; Caron, L.; Reager, J. T.; Ivins, E. R.

2018-03-01

Over the past two decades, sea level measurements made by satellites have given clear indications of both global and regional sea level rise. Numerous studies have sought to leverage the modern satellite record and available historic sea level data provided by tide gauges to estimate past sea level rise, leading to several estimates for the 20th century trend in global mean sea level in the range between 1 and 2 mm/yr. On regional scales, few attempts have been made to estimate trends over the same time period. This is due largely to the inhomogeneity and quality of the tide gauge network through the 20th century, which render commonly used reconstruction techniques inadequate. Here, a new approach is adopted, integrating data from a select set of tide gauges with prior estimates of spatial structure based on historical sea level forcing information from the major contributing processes over the past century. The resulting map of 20th century regional sea level rise is optimized to agree with the tide gauge-measured trends, and provides an indication of the likely contributions of different sources to regional patterns. Of equal importance, this study demonstrates the sensitivities of this regional trend map to current knowledge and uncertainty of the contributing processes.

Sea-level response to melting of Antarctic ice shelves on multi-centennial timescales with the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet model (f.ETISh v1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattyn, Frank

2017-08-01

The magnitude of the Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to global sea-level rise is dominated by the potential of its marine sectors to become unstable and collapse as a response to ocean (and atmospheric) forcing. This paper presents Antarctic sea-level response to sudden atmospheric and oceanic forcings on multi-centennial timescales with the newly developed fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model. The f.ETISh model is a vertically integrated hybrid ice sheet-ice shelf model with vertically integrated thermomechanical coupling, making the model two-dimensional. Its marine boundary is represented by two different flux conditions, coherent with power-law basal sliding and Coulomb basal friction. The model has been compared to existing benchmarks. Modelled Antarctic ice sheet response to forcing is dominated by sub-ice shelf melt and the sensitivity is highly dependent on basal conditions at the grounding line. Coulomb friction in the grounding-line transition zone leads to significantly higher mass loss in both West and East Antarctica on centennial timescales, leading to 1.5 m sea-level rise after 500 years for a limited melt scenario of 10 m a-1 under freely floating ice shelves, up to 6 m for a 50 m a-1 scenario. The higher sensitivity is attributed to higher ice fluxes at the grounding line due to vanishing effective pressure. Removing the ice shelves altogether results in a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet and (partially) marine basins in East Antarctica. After 500 years, this leads to a 5 m and a 16 m sea-level rise for the power-law basal sliding and Coulomb friction conditions at the grounding line, respectively. The latter value agrees with simulations by DeConto and Pollard (2016) over a similar period (but with different forcing and including processes of hydrofracturing and cliff failure). The chosen parametrizations make model results largely independent of spatial resolution so that f.ETISh can potentially be integrated in large-scale Earth system models.

Sea level variations during rapid changing Arctic Ocean from tide gauge and satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Ling; Xu, Daohuan

2016-04-01

Sea level variations can introduce the useful information under the circumstance of the rapid changing Arctic. Based on tide gauge records and the satellite altimetry data in the Arctic Ocean, the sea level variations in the 20th century are analyzed with the stochastic dynamic method. The average secular trend of the sea level record is about 1 mm/yr, which is smaller than the global mean cited by the IPCC climate assessment report. The secular trend in the coastal region differs from that in the deep water. After the mid-1970s, a weak acceleration of sea level rise is found along the coasts of the Siberian and Aleutian Islands. Analysis of synchronous TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry data indicates that the amplitude of the seasonal variation is less than that of the inter-annual variation, whose periods vary from 4.7 to 6 years. This relationship is different from that in the mid-latitudes. The climate indices are the pre-cursors of the sea level variations on multi-temporal scales. The model results show that while steric effects contribute significantly to the seasonal variation, the influence of atmospheric wind forcing is an important factor of sea level during ice free region.

Analysis of Sea Level Rise in Singapore Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tkalich, Pavel; Luu, Quang-Hung

2013-04-01

Sea level in Singapore Strait is governed by various scale phenomena, from global to local. Global signals are dominated by the climate change and multi-decadal variability and associated sea level rise; at regional scale seasonal sea level variability is caused by ENSO-modulated monsoons; locally, astronomic tides are the strongest force. Tide gauge records in Singapore Strait are analyzed to derive local sea level trend, and attempts are made to attribute observed sea level variability to phenomena at various scales, from global to local. It is found that at annual scale, sea level anomalies in Singapore Strait are quasi-periodic, of the order of ±15 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level falls are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are related to La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±9 cm. At multi-decadal scale, sea level in Singapore Strait has been rising at the rate 1.2-1.9 mm/year for the period 1975-2009, 2.0±0.3 mm/year for 1984-2009, and 1.3-4.7 mm/year for 1993-2009. When compared with the respective global trends of 2.0±0.3, 2.4, and 2.8±0.8 mm/year, Singapore Strait sea level rise trend was weaker at the earlier period and stronger at the recent decade.

Indo-Pacific Oceanic Connection and ENSO Events Observed and Simulated with a Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Model Forced Over 1980-1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perigaud, C.; Florenchie, P.

2000-01-01

In situ and satellite sea level data sets over 1980-1998 are used to estimate the interannual variations of the geostrophic zonal transport across the opening of the Northwestern Pacific boundary into the Celebes sea.

Short-term climatic fluctuations forced by thermal anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanna, A. F.

1982-01-01

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate was developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic (linear balance). Static stability is variable in the model. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only. Convective adjustment is used to avoid supercritical temperature lapse rates. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a vertical velocity at the lower boundary. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. The differential diabatic heating between land and sea is paramterized. On land and sea ice surfaces, a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. On the oceans, the sea surface temperature is specified as the climatological average for January. The model is used to simulate the January, February and March circulations.

Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Conner, W.H.; From, A.S.

2010-01-01

Tidal freshwater forests in coastal regions of the southeastern United States are undergoing dieback and retreat from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. In many areas, tidal saltwater forests (mangroves) contrastingly are expanding landward in subtropical coastal reaches succeeding freshwater marsh and forest zones. Hydrological characteristics of these low-relief coastal forests in intertidal settings are dictated by the influence of tidal and freshwater forcing. In this paper, we describe the application of the Sea Level Over Proportional Elevation (SLOPE) model to predict coastal forest retreat and migration from projected sea-level rise based on a proxy relationship of saltmarsh/mangrove area and tidal range. The SLOPE model assumes that the sum area of saltmarsh/mangrove habitat along any given coastal reach is determined by the slope of the landform and vertical tide forcing. Model results indicated that saltmarsh and mangrove migration from sea-level rise will vary by county and watershed but greater in western Gulf States than in the eastern Gulf States where millions of hectares of coastal forest will be displaced over the next century with a near meter rise in relative sea level alone. Substantial losses of coastal forests will also occur in the eastern Gulf but mangrove forests in subtropical zones of Florida are expected to replace retreating freshwater forest and affect regional biodiversity. Accelerated global eustacy from climate change will compound the degree of predicted retreat and migration of coastal forests with expected implications for ecosystem management of State and Federal lands in the absence of adaptive coastal management.

Nature of global large-scale sea level variability in relation to atmospheric forcing: A modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukumori, Ichiro; Raghunath, Ramanujam; Fu, Lee-Lueng

1998-03-01

The relation between large-scale sea level variability and ocean circulation is studied using a numerical model. A global primitive equation model of the ocean is forced by daily winds and climatological heat fluxes corresponding to the period from January 1992 to January 1994. The physical nature of sea level's temporal variability from periods of days to a year is examined on the basis of spectral analyses of model results and comparisons with satellite altimetry and tide gauge measurements. The study elucidates and diagnoses the inhomogeneous physics of sea level change in space and frequency domain. At midlatitudes, large-scale sea level variability is primarily due to steric changes associated with the seasonal heating and cooling cycle of the surface layer. In comparison, changes in the tropics and high latitudes are mainly wind driven. Wind-driven variability exhibits a strong latitudinal dependence in itself. Wind-driven changes are largely baroclinic in the tropics but barotropic at higher latitudes. Baroclinic changes are dominated by the annual harmonic of the first baroclinic mode and is largest off the equator; variabilities associated with equatorial waves are smaller in comparison. Wind-driven barotropic changes exhibit a notable enhancement over several abyssal plains in the Southern Ocean, which is likely due to resonant planetary wave modes in basins semienclosed by discontinuities in potential vorticity. Otherwise, barotropic sea level changes are typically dominated by high frequencies with as much as half the total variance in periods shorter than 20 days, reflecting the frequency spectra of wind stress curl. Implications of the findings with regards to analyzing observations and data assimilation are discussed.

Quantifying the Bering Strait Oceanic Fluxes and their Impacts on Sea-Ice and Water Properties in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas and Western Arctic Ocean for 2013-2014

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

Right) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) MODIS/Aqua level 1 image from 26th August 2004 (courtesy of Ocean Color Data Processing Archive, NASA/Goddard...was extremely good. The ADCPs and lower level temperature and salinity sensors all returned complete records. All 3 moorings also carried upper... Pavlov , and M. Kulakov (1999), The Siberian Coastal Current: a wind- and buoyancy-forced Arctic coastal current, J. Geophys. Res., 104(C12), 29697

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

2013-12-03

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Livina, Valerie

2013-01-01

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70°N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

Large-scale forcing of the European Slope Current and associated inflows to the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, Robert; Haigh, Ivan; Cunningham, Stuart; Inall, Mark; Porter, Marie; Moat, Ben

2017-04-01

Drifters drogued at 50 m in the European Slope Current at the Hebridean shelf break follow a wide range of pathways, indicating highly variable Atlantic inflow to the North Sea. Slope Current pathways, timescales and transports over 1988-2007 are further quantified in an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. Particle trajectories calculated with model currents indicate that Slope Current water is largely "recruited" from the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Observations of absolute dynamic topography and climatological density support theoretical expectations that Slope Current transport is to first order associated with meridional density gradients in the eastern subpolar gyre, which support a geostrophic inflow towards the slope. In the model hindcast, Slope Current transport variability is dominated by abrupt 25-50% reductions of these density gradients over 1996-1998. Concurrent changes in wind forcing, expressed in terms of density gradients, act in the same sense to reduce Slope Current transport. This indicates that coordinated regional changes of buoyancy and wind forcing acted together to reduce Slope Current transport during the 1990s. Particle trajectories further show that 10-40% of Slope Current water is destined for the northern North Sea within 6 months of passing to the west of Scotland, with a clear decline in this Atlantic inflow over 1988-2007. The influence of variable Slope Current transport on the northern North Sea is also expressed in salinity variations. A proxy for Atlantic inflow may be found in sea level records. Variability of Slope Current transport is implicit in mean sea level differences between Lerwick (Shetland) and Torshavn (Faeroes), in both tide gauge records and a longer model hindcast spanning 1958-2013. Potential impacts of this variability on North Sea biogeochemistry and ecosystems, via associated changes in temperature and seasonal stratification, are discussed.

Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt; Elias, Edwin P.L.; Berkowitz, Paul

2015-01-01

Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world’s low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands’ shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands’ shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 20; The Climate of the FVCCM-3 Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Chang, Yehui; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Nebuda, Sharon; Shen, Bo-Wen

2001-01-01

This document describes the climate of version 1 of the NASA-NCAR model developed at the Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model consists of a new finite-volume dynamical core and an implementation of the NCAR climate community model (CCM-3) physical parameterizations. The version of the model examined here was integrated at a resolution of 2 degrees latitude by 2.5 degrees longitude and 32 levels. The results are based on assimilation that was forced with observed sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 1979-1995, and are compared with NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and various other observational data sets. The results include an assessment of seasonal means, subseasonal transients including the Madden Julian Oscillation, and interannual variability. The quantities include zonal and meridional winds, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, stream function, velocity potential, precipitation, sea level pressure, and cloud radiative forcing.

Biological-Physical Feedbacks Determine Coastal Environmental Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, L. J.; Duran Vinent, O.; Walters, D.; Fagherazzi, S.; Mariotti, G.; Young, D.; Wolner, C. V.

2012-12-01

As low-lying coastal landforms, transitional between marine and terrestrial realms, barrier islands are especially sensitive to changing environmental conditions. Interactions among biological and physical processes appear to play a critical role in determining how these landscapes will evolve in the future as sea level rises, storm intensity increases and plant species composition changes. Within a new conceptual framework, barrier islands tend to exist in one of two primary states. "Low" islands have little relief above sea level and are dominated by external processes, responding quickly on short time scales to changes in forcing (e.g., storms, sea level rise, etc.), migrating rapidly and generally being low in ecological diversity and productivity. In contrast, "high" islands are less vulnerable to storms, tend to be dominated by internal processes (e.g., sand trapping by vegetation), require long time periods to respond to changes in forcing, migrate slowly (if at all) and host a range of plant species and morphological environments including shrubs, small trees and vegetated secondary and tertiary dunes with intervening swales. The continued existence of barrier island landforms will depend on the degree to which islands can maintain elevation above sea level while also responding to changes in forcing by migrating landward. A long-term morphological-behavior model exploring coupled barrier-marsh evolution and a new ecomorphodynamic model representing the formation/recovery of dunes as a function of storms, shed light on the role of interactions among biological and physical processes on barrier island response to climate change. Results suggest that connections between the marsh and barrier realms, which are mediated by biological processes in the marsh environment, are highly sensitive to factors such as sea level rise rate, antecedent morphology and marsh composition. Results also suggest that feedbacks between sediment transport and vegetation involved in dune building may allow small, gradual changes in storms to cause abrupt, nonlinear transitions from the high to low island state.

Aircraft Nuclear Survivability Methods.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

RD-ft63 218 IRCRAFT NUCLER SURVIVBILITY NETHODS(U IR FORCE 1/3 ID ft6 INST O TECH NRIGNT-PATTERSON AFI OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING H A UNDEM SEP 05...Approach..............VI.7 A Statistical Model of the Radiated Power ........................VI.7 Thermal Vulnerability Modeling.......VI.20 Melt-Mode...6.3 Thermal Power Versus Time--198 Kilotons at Sea Level ...... . . . .............. VI.12 6.4 Thermal Power Versus Time--3.8 Megatons at Sea Level

Atmospheric Profiles, Clouds, and the Evolution of Sea Ice Cover in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas: Atmospheric Observations and Modeling as Part of the Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Surveys

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

to conduct WRF model experiments.  We conducted Weather Research and Forecast ( WRF ) model simulations for the summer of 2014 and compared with the...level winds might be more important forcing for sea ice. In addition, evaluation of Polar- WRF simulations under different synoptic conditions will help

A Bayesian network to predict vulnerability to sea-level rise: data report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert

2011-01-01

During the 21st century, sea-level rise is projected to have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, development, and infrastructure. Consequently, there has been an increased focus on developing modeling or other analytical approaches to evaluate potential impacts to inform coastal management. This report provides the data that were used to develop and evaluate the performance of a Bayesian network designed to predict long-term shoreline change due to sea-level rise. The data include local rates of relative sea-level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline-change rate compiled as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal Vulnerability Index for the U.S. Atlantic coast. In this project, the Bayesian network is used to define relationships among driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal responses. Using this information, the Bayesian network is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline change in response to different future sea-level-rise scenarios.

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns on short-term sea-level fluctuations along the eastern seaboard of the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheridan, S. C.; Lee, C. C.; Pirhalla, D.; Ransi, V.

2017-12-01

Sea-level fluctuations over time are a product of short-term weather events, as well as long-term secular trends in sea-level rise. With sea-levl rise, these fluctuations increasingly have substantial impacts upon coastal ecosystems and impact society through coastal flooding events. In this research, we assess the impact of short-term events, combined with sea-level rise, through synoptic climatological analysis, exploring whether circulation pattern identification can be used to enhance probabilistic forecasts of flood likelihood. Self-organizing maps (SOMs) were created for two discrete atmospheric variables: 700-hPa geopotential height (700z) and sea-level pressure (SLP). For each variable, a SOM array of patterns was created based on data spanning 25°-50°N and 60°-90°W for the period 1979-2014. Sea-level values were derived from tidal gauges between Cape May, New Jersey and Charleston, South Carolina, along the mid-Atlantic coast of the US. Both anomalous sea-level values, as well as nuisance flood occurrence (defined using the local gauge threshold), were assessed. Results show the impacts of both the inverted barometer effect as well as surface wind forcing on sea levels. With SLP, higher sea levels are associated with either patterns that were indicative of on-shore flow or cyclones. At 700z, ridges situated along the east coast are associated with higher sea levels. As the SOM matrix arranges atmospheric patterns in a continuum, the nodes of each SOM show a clear spatial pattern in terms of anomalous sea level, including some significant sea-level anomalies associated with relatively ambiguous pressure patterns. Further, multi-day transitions are also analyzed, showing rapidly deepening cyclones, or persistent onshore flow, can be associated with the greatest likelihood of nuisance floods. Results are weaker with 700z than SLP; however, in some cases, it is clear that the mid-tropospheric circulation can modulate the connection between sea-level anomalies and surface circulation.

Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

2017-08-01

For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not affected by the LBCs. Finally, we argue that a correct configuration of LBCs in the Atlantic should be used for future Mediterranean simulations, which cover hindcast period, but also for scenarios.

Interannual sea level variability in the Pearl River Estuary and its response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Linlin; Li, Qiang; Mao, Xian-zhong; Bi, Hongsheng; Yin, Peng

2018-03-01

The South China coast, especially the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) region, is prosperous and densely populated, but vulnerable to sea level changes. Sea level anomalies (SLA) during 1954-2012 from tide gauge station data and regional SLAs during 1993-2012 from satellite altimetry are analyzed and compare to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results show that sea level declines during El Niño events and rises during La Niña. Sea level in the PRE responds to ENSO with 3-month lag. The ENSO can cause sea level in the PRE to fluctuate from -8.70 to 8.11 cm. Sea level cycles of 3 and 5 years are related to ENSO. The ENSO mechanism affecting sea level in the PRE was analyzed by identifying dominant regional and local forces. Weak/strong SLAs in most El Niño/La Niña events may be attributed to less/more seawater transport driven by anomalously weak/strong north winds and local anomalously high/low sea level pressure. Wind-driven coastal current is the predominant factor. It generated coastal seawater volume transport along a 160 km wide cross section to decrease by 21.07% in a typical El Niño period (January 2010) and increase by 44.03% in a typical La Niña period (January 2011) as compared to an ENSO neutral situation (January 2013). Results of sea level rise and its potential mechanism provide insight for disaster protection during extreme El Niño/La Niña events.

The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

2014-06-01

Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to local departures from the global mean sea level change, through a number of mechanisms including the effect on spatial variations in the change of water density and transport, usually termed dynamic sea level changes. In this study, we focus on the component of dynamic sea level change that might be given by additional freshwater inflow to the ocean under scenarios of 21st-century land-based ice melt. We present regional patterns of dynamic sea level change given by a global-coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model forced by spatially and temporally varying projected ice-melt fluxes from three sources: the Antarctic ice sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet and small glaciers and ice caps. The largest ice melt flux we consider is equivalent to almost 0.7 m of global mean sea level rise over the 21st century. The temporal evolution of the dynamic sea level changes, in the presence of considerable variations in the ice melt flux, is also analysed. We find that the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is small, with the largest changes occurring in the North Atlantic amounting to 3 cm above the global mean rise. Furthermore, the dynamic sea level change associated with the ice melt is similar regardless of whether the simulated ice fluxes are applied to a simulation with fixed CO2 or under a business-as-usual greenhouse gas warming scenario of increasing CO2.

Impact of uncertainty in surface forcing on the new SODA 3 global reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carton, J.; Chepurin, G. A.; Chen, L.

2016-02-01

An updated version of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation reanalysis (SODA 3)has been constructed based on GFDL MOM ocean and sea ice numerics, with improved resolution and other changes. A series of three 30+ year long global ocean reanalysis experiments (1980-2014) have carried out which differ only in the choice of specified daily surface heat, momentum, and freshwater forcing: MERRA2, ERA-Int, and ERA-20. The first two forcing data sets make extensive use of satellite observations while the third only uses surface observations. The differences in the resulting SODA reanalysis experiments allow us to explore a major source of error in ocean reanalyses, which is the uncertainty introduced by errors in the surface forcing. The modest differences among the experiments tend to be concentrated at higher latitude where the MERRA2-SODA has a somewhat cooler (1C), saltier (1psu) surface leading to lower (10cm) sea level. Cooler conditions affect the upper 300m heat content at high latitude (although MERRA2-SODA HC300 is higher in the subtropics). RMS differences are small except for surface salinity at high latitude (1psu). The implications for such issues thermosteric sea level, the overturning circulation, and the rise of global heat storage will be discussed.

The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) Contribution to CMIP6: Investigation of Sea-Level and Ocean Climate Change in Response to CO2 Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gregory, Jonathan M.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Griffies, Stephen M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hurlin, William J.; Jungclaus, Johann; Kelley, Maxwell; Lee, Warren G.; Marshall, John; Romanou, Anastasia;

A new phase in the production of quality-controlled sea level data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quartly, Graham D.; Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Joana Fernandes, M.; Rudenko, Sergei; Carrère, Loren; Nilo García, Pablo; Cipollini, Paolo; Andersen, Ole B.; Poisson, Jean-Christophe; Mbajon Njiche, Sabrina; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

2017-08-01

Sea level is an essential climate variable (ECV) that has a direct effect on many people through inundations of coastal areas, and it is also a clear indicator of climate changes due to external forcing factors and internal climate variability. Regional patterns of sea level change inform us on ocean circulation variations in response to natural climate modes such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and anthropogenic forcing. Comparing numerical climate models to a consistent set of observations enables us to assess the performance of these models and help us to understand and predict these phenomena, and thereby alleviate some of the environmental conditions associated with them. All such studies rely on the existence of long-term consistent high-accuracy datasets of sea level. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) of the European Space Agency was established in 2010 to provide improved time series of some ECVs, including sea level, with the purpose of providing such data openly to all to enable the widest possible utilisation of such data. Now in its second phase, the Sea Level CCI project (SL_cci) merges data from nine different altimeter missions in a clear, consistent and well-documented manner, selecting the most appropriate satellite orbits and geophysical corrections in order to further reduce the error budget. This paper summarises the corrections required, the provenance of corrections and the evaluation of options that have been adopted for the recently released v2.0 dataset (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612). This information enables scientists and other users to clearly understand which corrections have been applied and their effects on the sea level dataset. The overall result of these changes is that the rate of rise of global mean sea level (GMSL) still equates to ˜ 3.2 mm yr-1 during 1992-2015, but there is now greater confidence in this result as the errors associated with several of the corrections have been reduced. Compared with v1.1 of the SL_cci dataset, the new rate of change is 0.2 mm yr-1 less during 1993 to 2001 and 0.2 mm yr-1 higher during 2002 to 2014. Application of new correction models brought a reduction of altimeter crossover variances for most corrections.

Combined effects of projected sea level rise, storm surge, and peak river flows on water levels in the Skagit Floodplain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hamman, Josheph J; Hamlet, Alan F.; Fuller, Roger; Grossman, Eric E.

2016-01-01

Current understanding of the combined effects of sea level rise (SLR), storm surge, and changes in river flooding on near-coastal environments is very limited. This project uses a suite of numerical models to examine the combined effects of projected future climate change on flooding in the Skagit floodplain and estuary. Statistically and dynamically downscaled global climate model scenarios from the ECHAM-5 GCM were used as the climate forcings. Unregulated daily river flows were simulated using the VIC hydrology model, and regulated river flows were simulated using the SkagitSim reservoir operations model. Daily tidal anomalies (TA) were calculated using a regression approach based on ENSO and atmospheric pressure forcing simulated by the WRF regional climate model. A 2-D hydrodynamic model was used to estimate water surface elevations in the Skagit floodplain using resampled hourly hydrographs keyed to regulated daily flood flows produced by the reservoir simulation model, and tide predictions adjusted for SLR and TA. Combining peak annual TA with projected sea level rise, the historical (1970–1999) 100-yr peak high water level is exceeded essentially every year by the 2050s. The combination of projected sea level rise and larger floods by the 2080s yields both increased flood inundation area (+ 74%), and increased average water depth (+ 25 cm) in the Skagit floodplain during a 100-year flood. Adding sea level rise to the historical FEMA 100-year flood resulted in a 35% increase in inundation area by the 2040's, compared to a 57% increase when both SLR and projected changes in river flow were combined.

Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales

PubMed Central

Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.

2013-01-01

On 103- to 106-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely reflects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from five well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-defined and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO2 and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO2 in determining Earth’s climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that influence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relationship between CO2 and sea level we describe portrays the “likely” (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely independent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO2 stabilized at 400–450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted “acceptable warming” of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% confidence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid significantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times. PMID:23292932

Influence of sea ice on Arctic coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnhart, K. R.; Kay, J. E.; Overeem, I.; Anderson, R. S.

2017-12-01

Coasts form the dynamic interface between the terrestrial and oceanic systems. In the Arctic, and in much of the world, the coast is a focal point for population, infrastructure, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. A key difference between Arctic and temperate coasts is the presence of sea ice. Changes in sea ice cover can influence the coast because (1) the length of the sea ice-free season controls the time over which nearshore water can interact with the land, and (2) the location of the sea ice edge controls the fetch over which storm winds can interact with open ocean water, which in turn governs nearshore water level and wave field. We first focus on the interaction of sea ice and ice-rich coasts. We combine satellite records of sea ice with a model for wind-driven storm surge and waves to estimate how changes in the sea ice-free season have impacted the nearshore hydrodynamic environment along Alaska's Beaufort Sea Coast for the period 1979-2012. This region has experienced some of the greatest changes in both sea ice cover and coastal erosion rates in the Arctic: the median length of the open-water season has expanded by 90 percent, while coastal erosion rates have more than doubled from 8.7 to 19 m yr-1. At Drew Point, NW winds increase shoreline water levels that control the incision of a submarine notch, the rate-limiting step of coastal retreat. The maximum water-level setup at Drew Point has increased consistently with increasing fetch. We extend our analysis to the entire Arctic using both satellite-based observations and global coupled climate model output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. This 30-member ensemble employs a 1-degree version of the CESM-CAM5 historical forcing for the period 1920-2005, and RCP 8.5 forcing from 2005-2100. A control model run with constant pre-industrial (1850) forcing characterizes internal variability in a constant climate. Finally, we compare observations and model results to identify locations of both observed and expected rapid sea ice change. Based on satellite observations, the median length of the 2012 open-water season expanded by between 1.5 and 3-fold relative to 1979 over the Arctic Sea region. This results in open water during the stormy Arctic fall, with implications for not only coastal processes but for amplification of warming on land.

Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Little, Christopher M.; Horton, Radley M.; Kopp, Robert E.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yip, Stan

2015-01-01

The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

Sea-level and climate forcing of the Sr isotope composition of marginal basins in the late Miocene Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schildgen, T. F.; Cosentino, D.; Frijia, G.; Castorina, F.; Dudas, F. O.; Iadanza, A.; Cipollari, P.; Caruso, A.; Bowring, S. A.; Strecker, M. R.

2013-12-01

Sr isotope records from marginal marine basins track the mixing between sea water and local continental runoff. Because changes in sea level determine the amount of mixing between global marine and continental water, and climate affects the amount of continental runoff, both sea-level and climate changes can potentially be recorded in marine fossil Sr isotope composition. Our 128 new 87Sr/86Sr analyses on 73 oyster, foraminifera, and coral samples from eight late Miocene stratigraphic sections in southern Turkey, Crete, and Sicily show that 87Sr/86Sr in Mediterranean marginal basins started to depart from global ocean values several million years before the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC), with sub-basin 87Sr/86Sr commonly dropping 0.000100 below contemporaneous global ocean values. The marked departure coincided with tectonic uplift and basin shallowing along the margins of the Mediterranean Basin. In contrast, centrally-located basins within the Mediterranean (e.g., Cyprus, Sicily, Crete) only record departures during the MSC. Besides this general trend, our 57 new 87Sr/86Sr analyses from the astronomically tuned Lower Evaporite unit deposited during the MSC in the central Apennines (Italy) allow us to explore in detail the effect of sea-level and humidity changes on 87Sr/86Sr . Most of the variation in 87Sr/86Sr that we observe can be explained by changes in eustatic sea level, with greatest departures from global ocean values (with differences up to 0.000150) occurring during sea-level lowstands, which were characterized by relatively arid conditions in the Mediterranean. However, in a few cases, the greatest 87Sr/86Sr departures (up to 0.000300) occur during sea-level highstands, which are marked by more humid conditions. Because the correlations between peaks in Sr departures and highstands (humid conditions) occur only after episodes of prolonged aridity, variations of residence time of continental water (particularly groundwater) could have affected its Sr concentration, and hence the degree to which continental water could perturb 87Sr/86Sr in marine sub-basins. Although our results demonstrate that the forcing behind variations in Sr isotope composition in marginal marine basins is more complex than what is typically included in Sr isotope box models, they also imply that high-resolution records, particularly when combined with independent information on sea-level or climate changes, could offer unique insights into local tectonic, climatic, and sea-level variations.

Geologic effects and coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise, erosion, and storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, S.J.; Gutierrez, B.T.; Thieler, E.R.; Pendleton, E.

2008-01-01

A combination of natural and human factors are driving coastal change and making coastal regions and populations increasingly vulnerable. Sea level, a major agent of coastal erosion, has varied greatly from -120 m below present during glacial period low-stands to + 4 to 6 m above present during interglacial warm periods. Geologic and tide gauge data show that global sea level has risen about 12 to 15 cm during the past century with satellite measurements indicating an acceleration since the early 1990s due to thermal expansion and ice-sheet melting. Land subsidence due to tectonic forces and sediment compaction in regions like the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana increase the rate of relative sea-level rise to 40 cm to 100 cm per century. Sea- level rise is predicted to accelerate significantly in the near future due to climate change, resulting in pervasive impacts to coastal regions and putting populations increasingly at risk. The full implications of climate change for coastal systems need to be understood better and long-term plans are needed to manage coasts in order to protect natural resources and mitigate the effects of sea-level rise and increased storms on human infrastructure. 

A new perspective on global mean sea level (GMSL) acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, Phil J.

2016-06-01

The vast body of contemporary climate change science is largely underpinned by the premise of a measured acceleration from anthropogenic forcings evident in key climate change proxies -- greenhouse gas emissions, temperature, and mean sea level. By virtue, over recent years, the issue of whether or not there is a measurable acceleration in global mean sea level has resulted in fierce, widespread professional, social, and political debate. Attempts to measure acceleration in global mean sea level (GMSL) have often used comparatively crude analysis techniques providing little temporal instruction on these key questions. This work proposes improved techniques to measure real-time velocity and acceleration based on five GMSL reconstructions spanning the time frame from 1807 to 2014 with substantially improved temporal resolution. While this analysis highlights key differences between the respective reconstructions, there is now more robust, convincing evidence of recent acceleration in the trend of GMSL.

Assessment of ocean models in Mediterranean Sea against altimetry and gravimetry measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Uebbing, Bernd; Kusche, Jürgen

2017-04-01

This work aims at assessing in a regional study in the Mediterranean Sea the agreement between ocean model outputs and satellite altimetry and satellite gravity observations. Satellite sea level change are from altimeter data made available by the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative (SLCCI) and from satellite gravity data made available by GRACE. We consider two ocean simulations not assimilating satellite altimeter data and one ocean model reanalysis assimilating satellite altimetry. Ocean model simulations can provide some insight on the ocean variability, but they are affected by biases due to errors in model formulation, specification of initial states and forcing, and are not directly constrained by observations. Their trend can be quite different from the altimetric observations due to surface radiation biases, however they are physically consistent. Ocean reanalyses are the combination of ocean models, atmospheric forcing fluxes and ocean observations via data assimilation methods and have the potential to provide more accurate information than observation-only or model-only based ocean estimations. They will be closer to altimetry at long and short timescales, but assimilation may destroy mass consistency. We use two ocean simulations which are part of the Med-CORDEX initiative (https://www.medcordex.eu). The first is the CNRM-RCM4 fully-coupled Regional Climate System Model (RCMS) simulation developed at METEOFRANCE for 1980-2012. The second is the PROTHEUS standalone hindcast simulation developed at ENEA and covers the interval 1960-2012. The third model is the regional model MEDSEA_REANALYSIS_PHIS_006_004 assimilating satellite altimeter data (http://marine.copernicus.eu/) and available over 1987-2014. Comparison at basin and regional scale are made. First the steric, thermo-steric, halosteric and dynamic components output of the models are compared. Then the total sea level given by the models is compared to the altimeter observations. Finally the mass component derived from GRACE is compared to the difference between the total sea level and the steric component. We observe large differences between the ocean models and discuss the model which best agrees with the CCI sea level product at short and at longer timescales. We consider departure in sea level trends, inter-annual variability and seasonal cycle. The work is part of the Sea Level Climate Change Initiative project.

Land-sea coupling of early Pleistocene glacial cycles in the southern North Sea exhibit dominant Northern Hemisphere forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donders, Timme H.; van Helmond, Niels A. G. M.; Verreussel, Roel; Munsterman, Dirk; ten Veen, Johan; Speijer, Robert P.; Weijers, Johan W. H.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Peterse, Francien; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S.; Lourens, Lucas; Kuhlmann, Gesa; Brinkhuis, Henk

2018-03-01

We assess the disputed phase relations between forcing and climatic response in the early Pleistocene with a spliced Gelasian (˜ 2.6-1.8 Ma) multi-proxy record from the southern North Sea basin. The cored sections couple climate evolution on both land and sea during the intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG) in NW Europe, providing the first well-constrained stratigraphic sequence of the classic terrestrial Praetiglian stage. Terrestrial signals were derived from the Eridanos paleoriver, a major fluvial system that contributed a large amount of freshwater to the northeast Atlantic. Due to its latitudinal position, the Eridanos catchment was likely affected by early Pleistocene NHG, leading to intermittent shutdown and reactivation of river flow and sediment transport. Here we apply organic geochemistry, palynology, carbonate isotope geochemistry, and seismostratigraphy to document both vegetation changes in the Eridanos catchment and regional surface water conditions and relate them to early Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles and relative sea level changes. Paleomagnetic and palynological data provide a solid integrated timeframe that ties the obliquity cycles, expressed in the borehole geophysical logs, to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 103 to 92, independently confirmed by a local benthic oxygen isotope record. Marine and terrestrial palynological and organic geochemical records provide high-resolution reconstructions of relative terrestrial and sea surface temperature (TT and SST), vegetation, relative sea level, and coastal influence.During the prominent cold stages MIS 98 and 96, as well as 94, the record indicates increased non-arboreal vegetation, low SST and TT, and low relative sea level. During the warm stages MIS 99, 97, and 95 we infer increased stratification of the water column together with a higher percentage of arboreal vegetation, high SST, and relative sea level maxima. The early Pleistocene distinct warm-cold alterations are synchronous between land and sea, but lead the relative sea level change by 3000-8000 years. The record provides evidence for a dominantly Northern Hemisphere-driven cooling that leads the glacial buildup and varies on the obliquity timescale. Southward migration of Arctic surface water masses during glacials, indicated by cool-water dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, is furthermore relevant for the discussion on the relation between the intensity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ice sheet growth.

Large-scale forcing of the European Slope Current and associated inflows to the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, Robert; Haigh, Ivan D.; Cunningham, Stuart A.; Inall, Mark E.; Porter, Marie; Moat, Ben I.

2017-04-01

The European Slope Current provides a shelf-edge conduit for Atlantic Water, a substantial fraction of which is destined for the northern North Sea, with implications for regional hydrography and ecosystems. Drifters drogued at 50 m in the European Slope Current at the Hebridean shelf break follow a wide range of pathways, indicating highly variable Atlantic inflow to the North Sea. Slope Current pathways, timescales and transports over 1988-2007 are further quantified in an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. Particle trajectories calculated with model currents indicate that Slope Current water is largely recruited from the eastern subpolar North Atlantic. Observations of absolute dynamic topography and climatological density support theoretical expectations that Slope Current transport is to first order associated with meridional density gradients in the eastern subpolar gyre, which support a geostrophic inflow towards the slope. In the model hindcast, Slope Current transport variability is dominated by abrupt 25-50 % reductions of these density gradients over 1996-1998. Concurrent changes in wind forcing, expressed in terms of density gradients, act in the same sense to reduce Slope Current transport. This indicates that coordinated regional changes of buoyancy and wind forcing acted together to reduce Slope Current transport during the 1990s. Particle trajectories further show that 10-40 % of Slope Current water is destined for the northern North Sea within 6 months of passing to the west of Scotland, with a general decline in this percentage over 1988-2007. Salinities in the Slope Current correspondingly decreased, evidenced in ocean analysis data. Further to the north, in the Atlantic Water conveyed by the Slope Current through the Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC), salinity is observed to increase over this period while declining in the hindcast. The observed trend may have broadly compensated for a decline in the Atlantic inflow, limiting salinity changes in the northern North Sea during this period. Proxies for both Slope Current transport and Atlantic inflow to the North Sea are sought in sea level height differences across the FSC and between Shetland and the Scottish mainland (Wick). Variability of Slope Current transport on a wide range of timescales, from seasonal to multi-decadal, is implicit in sea level differences between Lerwick (Shetland) and Tórshavn (Faroes), in both tide gauge records from 1957 and a longer model hindcast spanning 1958-2012. Wick-Lerwick sea level differences in tide gauge records from 1965 indicate considerable decadal variability in the Fair Isle Current transport that dominates Atlantic inflow to the northwest North Sea, while sea level differences in the hindcast are dominated by strong seasonal variability. Uncertainties in the Wick tide gauge record limit confidence in this proxy.

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

DOE PAGES

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2016-10-04

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modesmore » and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this article, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.« less

Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

2017-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

Climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and extreme sea levels in the South Pacific — A regional assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McInnes, Kathleen L.; McBride, John L.

2012-01-01

This paper reviews the current understanding of the effect of climate change on extreme sea levels in the South Pacific region. This region contains many locations that are vulnerable to extreme sea levels in the current climate, and projections indicate that this vulnerability will increase in the future. The recent publication of authoritative statements on the relationship between global warming and global sea level rise, tropical cyclones and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon has motivated this review. Confident predictions of global mean sea level rise are modified by regional differences in the steric (density-related) component of sea level rise and changing gravitational interactions between the ocean and the ice sheets which affect the regional distribution of the eustatic (mass-related) contribution to sea level rise. The most extreme sea levels in this region are generated by tropical cyclones. The intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones is likely to increase, but many climate models project a substantial decrease in tropical cyclone numbers in this region, which may lead to an overall decrease in the total number of intense tropical cyclones. This projection, however, needs to be better quantified using improved high-resolution climate model simulations of tropical cyclones. Future changes in ENSO may lead to large regional variations in tropical cyclone incidence and sea level rise, but these impacts are also not well constrained. While storm surges from tropical cyclones give the largest sea level extremes in the parts of this region where they occur, other more frequent high sea level events can arise from swell generated by distant storms. Changes in wave climate are projected for the tropical Pacific due to anthropogenically-forced changes in atmospheric circulation. Future changes in sea level extremes will be caused by a combination of changes in mean sea level, regional sea level trends, tropical cyclone incidence and wave climate. Recommendations are given for research to increase understanding of the response of these factors to climate change. Implications of the results for adaptation research are also discussed.

Environmental forcing on life history strategies: Evidence for multi-trophic level responses at ocean basin scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Suryan, Robert M.; Saba, Vincent S.; Wallace, Bryan P.; Hatch, Scott A.; Frederiksen, Morten; Wanless, Sarah

2009-01-01

Variation in life history traits of organisms is thought to reflect adaptations to environmental forcing occurring from bottom-up and top-down processes. Such variation occurs not only among, but also within species, indicating demographic plasticity in response to environmental conditions. From a broad literature review, we present evidence for ocean basin- and large marine ecosystem-scale variation in intra-specific life history traits, with similar responses occurring among trophic levels from relatively short-lived secondary producers to very long-lived apex predators. Between North Atlantic and North Pacific Ocean basins, for example, species in the Eastern Pacific exhibited either later maturation, lower fecundity, and/or greater annual survival than conspecifics in the Western Atlantic. Parallel variations in life histories among trophic levels also occur in adjacent seas and between eastern vs. western ocean boundaries. For example, zooplankton and seabird species in cooler Barents Sea waters exhibit lower fecundity or greater annual survival than conspecifics in the Northeast Atlantic. Sea turtles exhibit a larger size and a greater reproductive output in the Western Pacific vs. Eastern Pacific. These examples provide evidence for food-web-wide modifications in life history strategies in response to environmental forcing. We hypothesize that such dichotomies result from frequency and amplitude shifts in resource availability over varying temporal and spatial scales. We review data that supports three primary mechanisms by which environmental forcing affects life history strategies: (1) food-web structure; (2) climate variability affecting the quantity and seasonality of primary productivity; (3) bottom-up vs. top-down forcing. These proposed mechanisms provide a framework for comparisons of ecosystem function among oceanic regions (or regimes) and are essential in modeling ecosystem response to climate change, as well as for creating dynamic ecosystem-based marine conservation strategies.

Tidal energetics: Studies with a barotropic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, James Scott

The tidal energy from luni-solar gravitational forcing is dissipated principally through the dissipation of oceanic tides. Recent estimates using disparate methods, including analysis of satellite orbits and the timing of ancient eclipses, now indicate that this dissipation totals approximately 3.5 terawatts. However, the mechanisms and spatial distribution of this dissipation is not yet fully understood. In this work, three different aspects of tidal energetics are investigated with a variable resolution barotropic tidal model. The distribution of tidal energy, dissipation and energy flux are examined using high resolution models of several marginal seas: the European shelf, the Sea of Okhotsk, the Yellow and East China Seas, the South China Sea and the Bering Sea. Most modern tide models dissipate tidal energy with a quadratic friction parameterization of bottom friction. Since such dissipation depends nonlinearly on the velocity of the tidal current, these models dissipate primarily in shallow seas where current magnitudes are high. Without assimilating observational data, such tidal models have unreasonably high levels of tidal-period averaged kinetic and potential energies. I have added a linear friction parameterization to the traditional quadratic formulation and am able to obtain realistic tidal energy levels with an unassimilated model. The resulting model is used to investigate the tidal energetics of the recent geological past when sea level was 50 meters higher and 120 meters lower than at the present time. Long-period tides are of small enough amplitude that their energetics are an almost negligible part of the total tidal energy budget. However, the behavior of these tides yields insights into the response of the ocean to large scale forcing. We have modeled the lunar fortnightly (M f) and lunar monthly (Mm) tidal components and determined that the ratio of the Mf potential-to-kinetic energy ratio to that of Mm is about 3.9, consistent with values expected for long Rossby wave dynamics. Also, we obtain quality (Q) values for the Mf and Mm tides of 5.9 and 6.2 respectively which is consistent with recent inferences of basin circulation responses of Q of about 5.5 for 5-day synoptic forcing.

Intraseasonal variability of sea level and circulation in the Gulf of Thailand: the role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Eric C. J.

2014-01-01

Intraseasonal variability of the tropical Indo-Pacific ocean is strongly related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Shallow seas in this region, such as the Gulf of Thailand, act as amplifiers of the direct ocean response to surface wind forcing by efficient setup of sea level. Intraseasonal ocean variability in the Gulf of Thailand region is examined using statistical analysis of local tide gauge observations and surface winds. The tide gauges detect variability on intraseasonal time scales that is related to the MJO through its effect on local wind. The relationship between the MJO and the surface wind is strongly seasonal, being most vigorous during the monsoon, and direction-dependent. The observations are then supplemented with simulations of sea level and circulation from a fully nonlinear barotropic numerical ocean model (Princeton Ocean Model). The numerical model reproduces well the intraseasonal sea level variability in the Gulf of Thailand and its seasonal modulations. The model is then used to map the wind-driven response of sea level and circulation in the entire Gulf of Thailand. Finally, the predictability of the setup and setdown signal is discussed by relating it to the, potentially predictable, MJO index.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045.

PubMed

Dahl, Kristina A; Fitzpatrick, Melanie F; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001-2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years.

Sea level oscillations in coastal waters of the Buenos Aires province, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dragani, W. C.; Mazio, C. A.; Nuñez, M. N.

2002-03-01

Sea level oscillations, with periods ranging from a few minutes to almost 2 h, have been observed at various tide stations located on the coast of Buenos Aires. Simultaneous records of sea level elevation measured in Mar de Ajó, Pinamar and Mar del Plata during 1982 have been spectrally analyzed. Significant spectral energy has been detected between 0.85 and 4.69 cycles per hour (cph) and the most energetic peaks have frequencies between 1.17 and 1.49 cph. Spectra, coherence, and phase difference have been analyzed for the most energetic event of the year. During that event, the most intensive spectral peak is at 1.17 cph for Mar de Ajó and Pinamar, and at 1.49 cph for Mar del Plata. Simultaneous total energy peaks at Mar de Ajó, Pinamar and Mar del Plata, and the coherence function estimated between Mar de Ajó and Pinamar suggests that sea level oscillations could be a regional phenomenon. The analyzed data suggest that sea level oscillations could be forced by atmospheric gravity waves associated with frontal passages.

Sea level rise drives increased tidal flooding frequency at tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts: Projections for 2030 and 2045

PubMed Central

Fitzpatrick, Melanie F.; Spanger-Siegfried, Erika

2017-01-01

Tidal flooding is among the most tangible present-day effects of global sea level rise. Here, we utilize a set of NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts to evaluate the potential impact of future sea level rise on the frequency and severity of tidal flooding. Using the 2001–2015 time period as a baseline, we first determine how often tidal flooding currently occurs. Using localized sea level rise projections based on the Intermediate-Low, Intermediate-High, and Highest projections from the U.S. National Climate Assessment, we then determine the frequency and extent of such flooding at these locations for two near-term time horizons: 2030 and 2045. We show that increases in tidal flooding will be substantial and nearly universal at the 52 locations included in our analysis. Long before areas are permanently inundated, the steady creep of sea level rise will force many communities to grapple with chronic high tide flooding in the next 15 to 30 years. PMID:28158209

Dynamics of the last glacial maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing

PubMed Central

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Buckley, Kevin M.

2012-01-01

Retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic ice sheet is thought to have been initiated by changes in ocean heat and eustatic sea level propagated from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as northern ice sheets melted under rising atmospheric temperatures. The extent to which spatial variability in ice dynamics may have modulated the resultant pattern and timing of decay of the Antarctic ice sheet has so far received little attention, however, despite the growing recognition that dynamic effects account for a sizeable proportion of mass-balance changes observed in modern ice sheets. Here we use a 5-km resolution whole-continent numerical ice-sheet model to assess whether differences in the mechanisms governing ice sheet flow could account for discrepancies between geochronological studies in different parts of the continent. We first simulate the geometry and flow characteristics of an equilibrium LGM ice sheet, using pan-Antarctic terrestrial and marine geological data for constraint, then perturb the system with sea level and ocean heat flux increases to investigate ice-sheet vulnerability. Our results identify that fast-flowing glaciers in the eastern Weddell Sea, the Amundsen Sea, central Ross Sea, and in the Amery Trough respond most rapidly to ocean forcings, in agreement with empirical data. Most significantly, we find that although ocean warming and sea-level rise bring about mainly localized glacier acceleration, concomitant drawdown of ice from neighboring areas leads to widespread thinning of entire glacier catchments—a discovery that has important ramifications for the dynamic changes presently being observed in modern ice sheets. PMID:22988078

Dynamics of the last glacial maximum Antarctic ice-sheet and its response to ocean forcing.

PubMed

Golledge, Nicholas R; Fogwill, Christopher J; Mackintosh, Andrew N; Buckley, Kevin M

2012-10-02

Retreat of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) Antarctic ice sheet is thought to have been initiated by changes in ocean heat and eustatic sea level propagated from the Northern Hemisphere (NH) as northern ice sheets melted under rising atmospheric temperatures. The extent to which spatial variability in ice dynamics may have modulated the resultant pattern and timing of decay of the Antarctic ice sheet has so far received little attention, however, despite the growing recognition that dynamic effects account for a sizeable proportion of mass-balance changes observed in modern ice sheets. Here we use a 5-km resolution whole-continent numerical ice-sheet model to assess whether differences in the mechanisms governing ice sheet flow could account for discrepancies between geochronological studies in different parts of the continent. We first simulate the geometry and flow characteristics of an equilibrium LGM ice sheet, using pan-Antarctic terrestrial and marine geological data for constraint, then perturb the system with sea level and ocean heat flux increases to investigate ice-sheet vulnerability. Our results identify that fast-flowing glaciers in the eastern Weddell Sea, the Amundsen Sea, central Ross Sea, and in the Amery Trough respond most rapidly to ocean forcings, in agreement with empirical data. Most significantly, we find that although ocean warming and sea-level rise bring about mainly localized glacier acceleration, concomitant drawdown of ice from neighboring areas leads to widespread thinning of entire glacier catchments-a discovery that has important ramifications for the dynamic changes presently being observed in modern ice sheets.

The role of the oceans in changes of the Earth's climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Schuckmann, K.

2016-12-01

Any changes to the Earth's climate system affect an imbalance of the Earth's energy budget due to natural or human made climate forcing. The current positive Earth's energy imbalance is mostly caused by human activity, and is driving global warming. Variations in the world's ocean heat storage and its associated volume changes are a key factor to gauge global warming, to assess changes in the Earth's energy budget and to estimate contributions to the global sea level budget. Present-day sea-level rise is one of the major symptoms of the current positive Earth Energy Imbalance. Sea level also responds to natural climate variability that is superimposing and altering the global warming signal. The most prominent signature in the global mean sea level interannual variability is caused by El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It has been also shown that sea level variability in other regions of the Indo-Pacific area significantly alters estimates of the rate of sea level rise, i.e. in the Indonesian archipelago. In summary, improving the accuracy of our estimates of global Earth's climate state and variability is critical for advancing the understanding and prediction of the evolution of our climate, and an overview on recent findings on the role of the global ocean in changes of the Earth's climate system with particular focus on sea level variability in the Indo-Pacific region will be given in this contribution.

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

Anthropogenic sea level rise and adaptation in the Yangtze estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, H.; Chen, J.; Chen, Z.; Ruan, R.; Xu, G.; Zeng, G.; Zhu, J.; Dai, Z.; Gu, S.; Zhang, X.; Wang, H.

2016-02-01

Sea level rise is a major projected threat of climate change. There are regional variations in sea level changes, depending on both naturally the tectonic subsidence, geomorphology, naturally changing river inputs and anthropogenic driven forces as artificial reservoir water impoundment within the watershed and urban land subsidence driven by ground water depletion in the river delta. Little is known on regional sea level fall in response to the channel erosion due to the sediment discharge decline by reservoir interception in the upstream watershed, and water level rise driven by anthropogenic measures as the land reclamation, deep waterway regulation and fresh water reservoir construction to the sea level change in estuaries. Changing coastal cities are situated in the delta regions expected to be threatened in various degrees. Shanghai belongs to those cities. Here we show that the anthropogenic driven sea level rise in the Yangtze estuary from the point of view of the continuous hydrodynamic system consisted of river catchment, estuary and coastal sea. Land subsidence is cited as 4 mm/a (2011-2030). Scour depth of the estuarine channel by upstream engineering as Three Gauge Dam is estimated at 2-10 cm (2011-2030). The rise of water level by deep waterway and land reclamation is estimated at 8-10 cm (2011-2030). The relative sea level rise will be speculated about 10 -16 cm (2011-2030), which these anthropogenic sea level changes will be imposed into the absolute sea level rise 2 mm/a and tectonic subsidence 1 mm/a measured in 1990s. The action guideline to the sea level rise strategy in the Shanghai city have been proposed to the Shanghai government as (1) recent actions (2012-2015) to upgrade the city water supply and drainage engineering and protective engineering; (2) interim actions (2016-2020) to improve sea level monitoring and early warning system, and then the special, city, regional planning considering sea level rise; (3) long term actions (2021-2030) to implement both the safety and the transformation and development of the city.

Global Coastal Exposure due to Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points with Multiple Warming Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

Sea-level is observed and estimated to continue rising. In the future, the rise could be abrupt and irreversible in century to millennial timescale even if we conduct strong reduction of greenhouse gas emission. Greenland ice sheet and West Antarctic ice sheet are considered as attributable climate systems which would significantly enhance presently-projected sea-level rise by several meters if global mean temperature passes certain "Tipping points" which would exist around +1-5 degree Celsius above present temperature (1980-1999 average). Therefore, vulnerable coastal low-lying area, especially small islands, deltas or poor developing countries, would suffer from semi-permanent inundation and forced to counteract due to the enhanced sea-level rise. This study estimate range of sea-level rise until the year 2300 and 3000 considering excess of tipping points with using multiple levels of temperature scenarios which consist of excess tipping points and non-excess tipping points pathways. We extract state-of-the-art knowledge of tipping elements from paper reviewing to express reasonable relationship between temperature and abruptly-changing sea-level transition across the ages. This study also calculate coastal exposure globally as affected population, area and asset below the estimated sea-level for each countries with overlaying 30 arc-second gridded topography, population distribution and the sea-level. The result indicates which country would be critically affected if we follow overshooting pathways. Furthermore, this study visualize uncertain coastal exposure due to sea-level rise in the future from the multiple warming pathways. This estimation of possible future beyond tipping point would be useful information for decision-makers to establish new planning of defense, migration or mitigation for the future societies.

Variations in mid-ocean ridge magmatism and carbon emissions driven by glacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, R. F.; Burley, J. M.; Huybers, P. J.; Langmuir, C. H.; Crowley, J. W.; Park, S. H.; Carbotte, S. M.; Ferguson, D.; Proistosescu, C.; Boulahanis, B.

2015-12-01

Glacial cycles transfer ˜5×10^19 kg of water between the oceans and ice sheets, causing pressure changes in the upper mantle with consequences for the melting of Earth's interior. Forced with Plio-Pleistocene sea-level variations, theoretical models of mid-ocean ridge magma/mantle dynamics predict temporal variations up to 10% in melt supply to the base of the crust. Moreover, a transport model for a perfectly incompatible element suggests that CO2 emissions from mid-ocean ridges could vary by a similar proportion, though with a longer time-lag.Bathymetry from the Australian-Antarctic ridge shows statistically significant spectral energy near the Milankovitch periods of 23, 41, and 100 thousand years, which is consistent with model predictions. These results suggest that abyssal hills record the magmatic response to changes in sea level. The mechanism by which variations in the rate of melt supply are expressed in the bathymetry is not understood.The same pressure variations that modulate the melting rate could also modulate the depth of the onset of silicate melting. As ice sheets grow and sea level drops, this onset deepens, causing melting at the base of the silicate melting regime. Excess highly incompatible elements like CO2 enter the melt and begin their journey to the ridge axis. Tens of thousands of years later, this additional CO2 flux is emitted into the climate system. Because of its delay with respect to sea-level change, the predicted variation in CO2 emissions could represent a restoring force on climate (and sea-level) excursions. This mechanism has a response time determined by the time scale of melt transport; it potentially introduces a resonant frequency into the climate system.

Morphodynamics and stratigraphic architecture of shelf-edge deltas subject to constant vs. dynamic environmental forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, K. M.

2017-12-01

When deltas dock at the edge of continental margins they generally construct thick stratigraphic intervals and activate channelized continental slope systems. Deposits of shelf-edge deltas have the capacity to store detailed paleo-environmental records, given their location in the source to sink system. However, present day highstand sea-level conditions have pushed most deltaic systems well inbound of their shelf-edges, making it difficult to study their space-time dynamics and resulting stratigraphic products. Several competing theories describe how deltas and their downslope environments respond to sea-level cycles of varying magnitude and periodicity. We explore these hypotheses in a physical experiment where the topographic evolution of a coupled delta and downdip slope system was monitored at high temporal and spatial resolution. The experiment had three stages. In the first stage a delta aggraded at the shelf-edge under constant water and sediment supply, in addition to a constant generation of accommodation through a sea-level rise. In the second stage the sediment transport system responded to low magnitude and high frequency sea-level cycles. Finally, in the third stage the transport system responded to a high magnitude and long period sea-level cycle. In each stage, fine sediment from the input grain size distribution and dissolved salt in the input water supply promoted plunging hyperpycnal flows. Specifically, we compare the mean and temporal variability of the sediment delivered to the slope system between stages. In addition, we compare stratigraphic architecture and sediment sizes delivered to the slope system in each stage. These results are used to improve inversion of slope deposits for paleo-environmental forcings.

Lung function among 9- to 10-year-old Tibetan and Han Chinese schoolchildren living at different altitudes in Tibet.

PubMed

Yangzong; Berntsen, Sveinung; Bjertness, Espen; Stigum, Hein; Gonggalanzi; Bianba; Nafstad, Per

2013-03-01

Tibetans have lived at high altitude longer than any other high-altitude population. Still little is known about their lung function and especially among children. This study compared lung function values of forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and forced expiratory flow at 50% of FVC (FEF50) in children living at various altitudes in Tibet and with different ancestries. A cross-sectional study of lung function was performed among 9-10-year-old native Tibetan and Han Chinese children living at 3700 meters above sea level, and among native Tibetan children living at 4300 meters above sea level. The adjusted FVC and FEV1 were significantly higher in Tibetan children living at 4300 m above sea level as compared to Tibetans living at 3700 m. Tibetans living at 3700 m had higher FVC and FEV1 than Han Chinese living at the same altitude. All Tibetan children had on average higher FEF50 than Han Chinese. Tibetan children living at an altitude of 4300 m had relatively higher lung function than those living at 3700 m, and there were differences in lung function between Tibetans and Han Chinese who live at the same altitude. It seems likely that genetic factors involved in long-term adaptation to high altitude and cultural attributes could have contributed to the study findings.

The Sensitivity of a Global Ocean Model to Wind Forcing: A Test Using Sea Level and Wind Observations from Satellites and Operational Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

1997-01-01

Investigated in this study is the response of a global ocean general circulation model to forcing provided by two wind products: operational analysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP); observations made by the ERS-1 radar scatterometer.

Mountain Glaciers and Ice Caps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ananichheva, Maria; Arendt, Anthony; Hagen, Jon-Ove; Hock, Regine; Josberger, Edward G.; Moore, R. Dan; Pfeffer, William Tad; Wolken, Gabriel J.

2011-01-01

Projections of future rates of mass loss from mountain glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic focus primarily on projections of changes in the surface mass balance. Current models are not yet capable of making realistic forecasts of changes in losses by calving. Surface mass balance models are forced with downscaled output from climate models driven by forcing scenarios that make assumptions about the future rate of growth of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Thus, mass loss projections vary considerably, depending on the forcing scenario used and the climate model from which climate projections are derived. A new study in which a surface mass balance model is driven by output from ten general circulation models (GCMs) forced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) A1B emissions scenario yields estimates of total mass loss of between 51 and 136 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE) (or 13% to 36% of current glacier volume) by 2100. This implies that there will still be substantial glacier mass in the Arctic in 2100 and that Arctic mountain glaciers and ice caps will continue to influence global sea-level change well into the 22nd century.

Comment on "Sensitivity of seafloor bathymetry to climate-driven fluctuations in mid-ocean ridge magma supply".

PubMed

Huybers, Peter; Langmuir, Charles; Katz, Richard F; Ferguson, David; Proistosescu, Cristian; Carbotte, Suzanne

2016-06-17

Olive et al (Reports, 16 October 2015, p. 310) argue that ~10% fluctuations in melt supply do not produce appreciable changes in ocean ridge bathymetry on time scales less than 100,000 years and thus cannot reflect sea level forcing. Spectral analysis of bathymetry in a region they highlight as being fault controlled, however, shows strong evidence for a signal from sea level variation. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Structural Uncertainty in Antarctic sea ice simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, D. P.

2016-12-01

The inability of the vast majority of historical climate model simulations to reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice has motivated many studies about the quality of the observational record, the role of natural variability versus forced changes, and the possibility of missing or inadequate forcings in the models (such as freshwater discharge from thinning ice shelves or an inadequate magnitude of stratospheric ozone depletion). In this presentation I will highlight another source of uncertainty that has received comparatively little attention: Structural uncertainty, that is, the systematic uncertainty in simulated sea ice trends that arises from model physics and mean-state biases. Using two large ensembles of experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), I will show that the model is predisposed towards producing negative Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979-present, and that this outcome is not simply because the model's decadal variability is out-of-synch with that in nature. In the "Tropical Pacific Pacemaker" ensemble, in which observed tropical Pacific SST anomalies are prescribed, the model produces very realistic atmospheric circulation trends over the Southern Ocean, yet the sea ice trend is negative in every ensemble member. However, if the ensemble-mean trend (commonly interpreted as the forced response) is removed, some ensemble members show a sea ice increase that is very similar to the observed. While this results does confirm the important role of natural variability, it also suggests a strong bias in the forced response. I will discuss the reasons for this systematic bias and explore possible remedies. This an important problem to solve because projections of 21st -Century changes in the Antarctic climate system (including ice sheet surface mass balance changes and related changes in the sea level budget) have a strong dependence on the mean state of and changes in the Antarctic sea ice cover. This problem is not unique to CESM, but is pervasive across CMIP5-class models.

Effect of different implementations of the same ice history in GIA modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barletta, V. R.; Bordoni, A.

2013-11-01

This study shows the effect of changing the way ice histories are implemented in Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) codes to solve the sea level equation. The ice history models are being constantly improved and are provided in different formats. The overall algorithmic design of the sea-level equation solver often forces to implement the ice model in a representation that differs from the one originally provided. We show that using different representations of the same ice model gives important differences and artificial contributions to the sea level estimates, both at global and at regional scale. This study is not a speculative exercise. The ICE-5G model adopted in this work is widely used in present day sea-level analysis, but discrepancies between the results obtained by different groups for the same ice models still exist, and it was the effort to set a common reference for the sea-level community that inspired this work. Understanding this issue is important to be able to reduce the artefacts introduced by a non-suitable ice model representation. This is especially important when developing new GIA models, since neglecting this problem can easily lead to wrong alignment of the ice and sea-level histories, particularly close to the deglaciation areas, like Antarctica.

The role of internal variability in prolonging the California drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buenning, N. H.; Stott, L. D.

2015-12-01

The current drought in California has been one of the driest on record. Using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), recent studies have demonstrated that the low precipitation anomalies observed during the first three winters of the current drought are mostly attributable to changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice forcing. Here we show through AGCM simulations that the fourth and latest winter of the current drought is not attributable to SST and sea ice forcing, but instead a consequence of higher internal variability. Using the Global Spectral Model (GSM) we demonstrate how the surface forcing reproduces dry conditions over California for the first three winters of the current drought, similar to what other models produced. However, when forced with the SST and sea ice conditions for the winter of 2014-2015, GSM robustly simulates high precipitation conditions over California. This significantly differs with observed precipitation anomalies, which suggests a model deficiency or large influence of internal variability within the climate system during the winter of 2014-2015. Ensemble simulations with 234 realizations reveal that the surface forcing created a broader range of precipitation possibilities over California. Thus, the surface forcing caused a greater degree of internal variations, which was driven by a reduced latitudinal temperature gradient and amplified planetary waves over the Pacific. Similar amplified waves are also seen in 21st century climate projections of upper-level geopotential heights, suggesting that 21st century precipitation over California will become more variable and increasingly difficult to predict on seasonal timescales. When an El Nino pattern is applied to the surface forcing the precipitation further increases and the variance amongst model realizations is reduced, which indicates a strong likelihood of an anomalously wet 2015-2016 winter season.

Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barkhordarian, Armineh

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Investigating the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Observed Mean and Extreme Sea Level Pressure Trends over the Mediterranean Region

DOE PAGES

Barkhordarian, Armineh

2012-01-01

We investigate whether the observed mean sea level pressure (SLP) trends over the Mediterranean region in the period from 1975 to 2004 are significantly consistent with what 17 models projected as response of SLP to anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS). Obtained results indicate that the observed trends in mean SLP cannot be explained by natural (internal) variability. Externally forced changes are detectable in all seasons, except spring. The large-scale component (spatial mean) of the GS signal is detectable in all the 17 models in winter and in 12 of the 17 models in summer. However, the small-scalemore » component (spatial anomalies about the spatial mean) of GS signal is only detectable in winter within 11 of the 17 models. We also show that GS signal has a detectable influence on observed decreasing (increasing) tendency in the frequencies of extremely low (high) SLP days in winter and that these changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability. While the detection of GS forcing is robust in winter and summer, there are striking inconsistencies in autumn, where analysis points to the presence of an external forcing, which is not GS forcing.« less

Estimating the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2016-12-01

Rising sea level threatens human societies and coastal habitats and melting ice sheets are a major contributor to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, understanding uncertainty of both forcing and variability within the climate system is essential for assessing long-term risk of SLR given their impact on ice sheet evolution. The predictability of polar climate is limited by uncertainties from the given forcing, the climate model response to this forcing, and the internal variability from feedbacks within the fully coupled climate system. Among those sources of uncertainty, the impact of internal climate variability on ice sheet changes has not yet been robustly assessed. Here we investigate how internal variability affects ice sheet projections using climate fields from two Community Earth System Model (CESM) large-ensemble (LE) experiments to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. Each ensemble member in an LE experiment undergoes the same external forcings but with unique initial conditions. We find that for both LEs, 2m air temperature variability over Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) can lead to significantly different ice sheet responses. Our results show that the internal variability from two fully coupled CESM LEs can cause about 25 35 mm differences of GrIS's contribution to SLR in 2100 compared to present day (about 20% of the total change), and 100m differences of SLR in 2300. Moreover, only using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in ice sheet model can significantly underestimate the melt of GrIS. As the Arctic region becomes warmer, the role of internal variability is critical given the complex nonlinear interactions between surface temperature and ice sheet. Our results demonstrate that internal variability from coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model can affect ice sheet simulations and the resulting sea-level projections. This study highlights an urgent need to reassess associated uncertainties of projecting ice sheet loss over the next few centuries to obtain robust estimates of the contribution of ice sheet melt to SLR.

OMIP contribution to CMIP6: experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffies, Stephen M.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Durack, Paul J.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Balaji, V.; Böning, Claus W.; Chassignet, Eric P.; Curchitser, Enrique; Deshayes, Julie; Drange, Helge; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Gleckler, Peter J.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Haak, Helmuth; Hallberg, Robert W.; Heimbach, Patrick; Hewitt, Helene T.; Holland, David M.; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Komuro, Yoshiki; Krasting, John P.; Large, William G.; Marsland, Simon J.; Masina, Simona; McDougall, Trevor J.; Nurser, A. J. George; Orr, James C.; Pirani, Anna; Qiao, Fangli; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Taylor, Karl E.; Treguier, Anne Marie; Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Uotila, Petteri; Valdivieso, Maria; Wang, Qiang; Winton, Michael; Yeager, Stephen G.

2016-09-01

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is an endorsed project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses CMIP6 science questions, investigating the origins and consequences of systematic model biases. It does so by providing a framework for evaluating (including assessment of systematic biases), understanding, and improving ocean, sea-ice, tracer, and biogeochemical components of climate and earth system models contributing to CMIP6. Among the WCRP Grand Challenges in climate science (GCs), OMIP primarily contributes to the regional sea level change and near-term (climate/decadal) prediction GCs.OMIP provides (a) an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing; and (b) a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) detailing methods for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II (Interannual Forcing) have become the standard methods to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP, HighResMIP (High Resolution MIP), as well as the ocean/sea-ice OMIP simulations.

Intraseasonal variability and tides in Makassar Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susanto, R. Dwi; Gordon, Arnold L.; Sprintall, Janet; Herunadi, Bambang

2000-05-01

Intraseasonal variability and tides along the Makassar Strait, the major route of Indonesian throughflow, are investigated using spectral and time-frequency analyses which are applied to sea level, wind and mooring data. Semidiurnal and diurnal tides are dominant features, with higher (lower) semidiurnal (diurnal) energy in the north compared to the south. Sea levels and mooring data display intraseasonal variability which are probably a response to remotely forced Kelvin waves from the Indian Ocean through Lombok Strait and to Rossby waves from the Pacific Ocean. Sea levels in Tarakan and Balikpapan and Makassar mooring velocities reveal intraseasonal features with periods of 48-62 days associated with Rossby waves from the Sulawesi Sea. Kelvin wave features with periods of 67-100 days are seen in Bali (Lombok Strait), at the mooring sites and in Balikpapan, however, they are not seen in Tarakan, which implies that these waves diminish after passing through the Makassar Strait.

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becherer, Johannes; Hofstede, Jacobus; Gräwe, Ulf; Purkiani, Kaveh; Schulz, Elisabeth; Burchard, Hans

2018-01-01

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010-2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.

On using scatterometer and altimeter data to improve storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajo, Marco; Umgiesser, Georg; De Biasio, Francesco; Vignudelli, Stefano; Zecchetto, Stefano

2017-04-01

Satellite data are seldom used in storm surge forecasting. Among the most important issues related to the storm surge forecasting are the quality of the model wind forcing and the initial condition of the sea surface elevation. In this work, focused on storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea, satellite scatterometer wind data are used to correct the wind speed and direction biases of the ECMWF global atmospheric model by tuning the spatial fields, as an alternative to data assimilation. The capability of such an unbiased wind is tested against that of a high resolution wind, produced by a regional non-hydrostatic model. On the other hand, altimeter Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE) data, which provide the sea level elevation, are used to improve the accuracy of the initial state of the model simulations. This is done by assimilating into a storm surge model the TWLE obtained by the altimeter observations along ground tracks, after subtraction of the tidal components. In order to test the methodology, eleven storm surge events recorded in Venice, from 2008 to 2012, have been simulated using different configurations of forcing wind and altimeter data assimilation. Results show that the relative error on the estimation of the maximum surge peak, averaged over the cases considered, decreases from 13% to 7% using both the unbiased wind and the altimeter data assimilation, while forcing the hydrodynamic model with the high resolution wind (no tuning), the altimeter data assimilation reduces the error from 9% to 6%.

Impact of sea-level rise and coral mortality on the wave dynamics and wave forces on barrier reefs.

PubMed

Baldock, T E; Golshani, A; Callaghan, D P; Saunders, M I; Mumby, P J

2014-06-15

A one-dimensional wave model was used to investigate the reef top wave dynamics across a large suite of idealized reef-lagoon profiles, representing barrier coral reef systems under different sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. The modeling shows that the impacts of SLR vary spatially and are strongly influenced by the bathymetry of the reef and coral type. A complex response occurs for the wave orbital velocity and forces on corals, such that the changes in the wave dynamics vary reef by reef. Different wave loading regimes on massive and branching corals also leads to contrasting impacts from SLR. For many reef bathymetries, wave orbital velocities increase with SLR and cyclonic wave forces are reduced for certain coral species. These changes may be beneficial to coral health and colony resilience and imply that predicting SLR impacts on coral reefs requires careful consideration of the reef bathymetry and the mix of coral species. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms driving variability in the ocean forcing of Pine Island Glacier

PubMed Central

Webber, Benjamin G. M.; Heywood, Karen J.; Stevens, David P.; Dutrieux, Pierre; Abrahamsen, E. Povl; Jenkins, Adrian; Jacobs, Stanley S.; Ha, Ho Kyung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Kim, Tae Wan

2017-01-01

Pine Island Glacier (PIG) terminates in a rapidly melting ice shelf, and ocean circulation and temperature are implicated in the retreat and growing contribution to sea level rise of PIG and nearby glaciers. However, the variability of the ocean forcing of PIG has been poorly constrained due to a lack of multi-year observations. Here we show, using a unique record close to the Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS), that there is considerable oceanic variability at seasonal and interannual timescales, including a pronounced cold period from October 2011 to May 2013. This variability can be largely explained by two processes: cumulative ocean surface heat fluxes and sea ice formation close to PIIS; and interannual reversals in ocean currents and associated heat transport within Pine Island Bay, driven by a combination of local and remote forcing. Local atmospheric forcing therefore plays an important role in driving oceanic variability close to PIIS. PMID:28211473

Dynamics of Monsoon-Induced Biennial Variability in ENSO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Kyu-Myong; Lau, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The mechanism of the quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon coupled system is investigated using an intermediate coupled model. The monsoon wind forcing is prescribed as a function of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies based on the relationship between zonal wind anomalies over the western Pacific to sea level change in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The key mechanism of quasi-biennial tendency in El Nino evolution is found to be in the strong coupling of ENSO to monsoon wind forcing over the western Pacific. Strong boreal summer monsoon wind forcing, which lags the maximum SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific approximately 6 months, tends to generate Kelvin waves of the opposite sign to anomalies in the eastern Pacific and initiates the turnabout in the eastern Pacific. Boreal winter monsoon forcing, which has zero lag with maximum SST in the equatorial eastern Pacific, tends to damp the ENSO oscillations.

Global mean sea level - Indicator of climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, A.; Hansen, J.; Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Moore, E.; Etkins, R.; Epstein, E.

1983-01-01

A critical discussion is presented on the use by Etkins and Epstein (1982) of combined surface air temperature and sea level time series to draw conclusions concerning the discharge of the polar ice sheets. It is objected by Robock that they used Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature records which are unrepresentative of global sea surface temperature, and he suggests that externally imposed volcanic dust and CO2 forcings can adequately account for observed temperature changes over the last century, with global sea level changing in passive response to sea change as a result of thermal expansion. Hansen et al. adduce evidence for global cooling due to ice discharge that has not exceeded a few hundredths of a degree centigrade in the last century, precluding any importance of this phenomenon in the interpretation of global mean temperature trends for this period. Etkins and Epstein reply that since their 1982 report additional evidence has emerged for the hypothesis that the polar ice caps are diminishing. It is reasserted that each of the indices discussed, including global mean sea surface temperature and sea level, polar ice sheet mass balance, water mass characteristics, and the spin rate and axis of rotation displacement of the earth, are physically linked and can be systematically monitored, as is currently being planned under the auspices of the National Climate Program.

Experimental Study on Tsunami Risk Reduction on Coastal Building Fronted by Sea Wall

PubMed Central

Khan, M. T. R.; Shirazi, S. M.

2014-01-01

This experimental study was conducted to idealize the efficacy of sea wall in controlling the tsunami forces on onshore structures. Different types of sea walls were placed in front of the building model. The tsunami forces and the wave heights were measured with and without the sea wall conditions. Types of sea wall, wall height, and wall positions were varied simultaneously to quantify the force reductions. Maximum of 41% forces was reduced by higher sea wall, positioned closer proximity to the model whereas this reduction was about 27% when the wall height was half of the high wall. Experimental investigations revealed that wall with adequate height and placed closer to the structures enables a satisfactory predictor of the force reduction on onshore structures. Another set of tests were performed with perforated wall placing near the building model. Less construction cost makes the provision of perforated sea wall interesting. The overall results showed that the efficacy of perforated wall is almost similar to solid wall. Hence, it can be efficiently used instead of solid wall. Moreover, overtopped water that is stuck behind the wall is readily gone back to the sea through perforations releasing additional forces on the nearby structures. PMID:24790578

A NOAA/NOS Sea Level Advisory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweet, W.

2011-12-01

In order for coastal communities to realize current impacts and become resilient to future changes, sea level advisories/bulletins are necessary that systematically monitor and document non-tidal anomalies (residuals) and flood-watch (elevation) conditions. The need became apparent after an exceptional sea level anomaly along the U.S. East Coast in June - July of 2009 when higher than normal sea levels coincided with a perigean-spring tide and flooded many coastal regions. The event spurred numerous public inquiries to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) from coastal communities concerned because of the lack of any coastal storm signatures normally associated with such an anomaly. A subsequent NOAA report provided insight into some of the mechanisms involved in the event and methods for tracking their reoccurrences. NOAA/CO-OPS is the U.S. authority responsible for defining sea level datums and tracking their relative changes in support of marine navigation and national and state land-use boundaries. These efforts are supported by the National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON), whose long-term and widespread observations largely define a total water level measurement impacting a coastal community. NWLON time series provide estimates of local relative sea level trends, a product increasingly utilized by various stakeholders planning for the future. NWLON data also capture significant short-term changes and conveyance of high-water variations (from surge to seasonal scale) provides invaluable insight into inundation patterns ultimately needed for a more comprehensive planning guide. A NOAA/CO-OPS Sea Level Advisory Project will enhance high-water monitoring capabilities by: - Automatically detecting sea level anomalies and flood-watch occurrences - Seasonally calibrating the anomaly thresholds to a locality in terms of flood potential - Alerting for near-term superposition of non-tidal residuals and large tide-range changes (i.e., spring tides). - Identifying important regional physical forcing mechanisms (both meteorological and oceanographic) to help explain the conditions - Displaying near-real time and archived information to establish a clear and direct communication with a community in regards to its past, present and future flood patterns. An example is presented for Charleston, SC, an area with little remaining free board in terms of its downtown infrastructure. The National Weather Service (NWS) issues multiple flood watches for Charleston every year that largely result from astronomical (earth-sun-moon system) tide forcing alone and NOAA's Coastal Services Center (CSC) often receives inquiries regarding downtown flooding during sunny, nondescript days. This project will allow for a deeper appreciation of surge-to-seasonal patterns of variability and compliment a community's living memory of sea level elevations/impacts needed to motivate societal adaptation as sea levels rise. Coordination with NWS's local Weather Forecasting Offices (WFO) is planned and the project will expand to other incident-prone regions once demonstration is accepted.

Characterization of extreme sea level at the European coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elizalde, Alberto; Jorda, Gabriel; Mathis, Moritz; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2015-04-01

Extreme high sea levels arise as a combination of storm surges and particular high tides events. Future climate simulations not only project changes in the atmospheric circulation, which induces changes in the wind conditions, but also an increase in the global mean sea level by thermal expansion and ice melting. Such changes increase the risk of coastal flooding, which represents a possible hazard for human activities. Therefore, it is important to investigate the pattern of sea level variability and long-term trends at coastal areas. In order to analyze further extreme sea level events at the European coast in the future climate projections, a new setup for the global ocean model MPIOM coupled with the regional atmosphere model REMO is prepared. The MPIOM irregular grid has enhanced resolution in the European region to resolve the North and the Mediterranean Seas (up to 11 x 11 km at the North Sea). The ocean model includes as well the full luni-solar ephemeridic tidal potential for tides simulation. To simulate the air-sea interaction, the regional atmospheric model REMO is interactively coupled to the ocean model over Europe. Such region corresponds to the EuroCORDEX domain with a 50 x 50 km resolution. Besides the standard fluxes of heat, mass (freshwater), momentum and turbulent energy input, the ocean model is also forced with sea level pressure, in order to be able to capture the full variation of sea level. The hydrological budget within the study domain is closed using a hydrological discharge model. With this model, simulations for present climate and future climate scenarios are carried out to study transient changes on the sea level and extreme events. As a first step, two simulations (coupled and uncoupled ocean) driven by reanalysis data (ERA40) have been conducted. They are used as reference runs to evaluate the climate projection simulations. For selected locations at the coast side, time series of sea level are separated on its different components: tides, short time atmospheric process influence (1-30 days), seasonal cycle and interannual variability. Every sea level component is statistically compared with data from local tide gauges.

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

Sea-level rise induced amplification of coastal protection design heights.

PubMed

Arns, Arne; Dangendorf, Sönke; Jensen, Jürgen; Talke, Stefan; Bender, Jens; Pattiaratchi, Charitha

2017-01-06

Coastal protection design heights typically consider the superimposed effects of tides, surges, waves, and relative sea-level rise (SLR), neglecting non-linear feedbacks between these forcing factors. Here, we use hydrodynamic modelling and multivariate statistics to show that shallow coastal areas are extremely sensitive to changing non-linear interactions between individual components caused by SLR. As sea-level increases, the depth-limitation of waves relaxes, resulting in waves with larger periods, greater amplitudes, and higher run-up; moreover, depth and frictional changes affect tide, surge, and wave characteristics, altering the relative importance of other risk factors. Consequently, sea-level driven changes in wave characteristics, and to a lesser extent, tides, amplify the resulting design heights by an average of 48-56%, relative to design changes caused by SLR alone. Since many of the world's most vulnerable coastlines are impacted by depth-limited waves, our results suggest that the overall influence of SLR may be greatly underestimated in many regions.

Explicit Simulation of Networks of Outlet Glaciers to Constrain Greenland's Sea Level Contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ultee, E.; Bassis, J. N.

2017-12-01

Ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet drains to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers, many of which are too small to be accurately resolved in continental-scale ice sheet models. Moreover, despite the fact that dynamic changes in Greenland outlet glaciers are currently responsible for about half of the ice sheet's contribution to global sea level, all but the largest are often excluded from major sea level assessments. We have previously developed and validated a simple model that simulates advance and retreat of networks of marine-terminating glaciers based on the perfect plastic approximation. Here we apply this model to a selection of forcing scenarios, representing both climate persistence and extreme scenarios, to constrain changes in calving flux from the most significant Greenland outlet glaciers. Our model can be implemented in standalone mode or as the calving module in a more sophisticated large-scale model, providing constraints on Greenland's future contribution to global sea level rise under a range of scenarios.

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, M.C.

2003-01-01

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, A.M.; Haywood, A.M.; Hill, D.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hunter, S.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Pickering, S.J.

2011-01-01

The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times where the anti-phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheet retreat is minimised.

Strain transients in the Gulf of Corinth (Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canitano, Alexandre; Bernard, Pascal; Linde, Alan; Sacks, Selwyn; Boudin, Frederick

2010-05-01

The Gulf of Corinth (Greece) is one of the most seismic regions in Europe, producing some earthquakes of magnitude greater than 5.8 in the last 35 years, 1 to 1.5 cm/yr of north-south extension, and frequent seismic swarms. This structure is a 110 km long, N110E oriented graben bounded by systems of very recent normal faults. This zone thus provides an ideal site for investigating in situ the physics of earthquake sources and for developing efficient seismic hazard reduction procedures. The Corinth Rift Laboratory (CRL) project is concentrated in the western part of the rift, around the city of Aigion, where instrumental seismicity and strain rate is highest. The CRL Network is made up about fifteen seismic stations as well as tiltmeters, strainmeters or GPS in order to study the local seismicity, and to observe and model the short and long term mechanics of the normal fault system. The instrumental seismicity in the Aigion zone clearly shows a strong concentration of small earthquakes between 5 and 10 km. In order to study slow transient deformation, two borehole strainmeters have been installed in the Gulf (Trizonia, Monasteraki). The strainmeter installed in the Trizonia island is continuously recording the horizontal strain at 150m depth with a resolution better than 10-9. The dominant signal is the earth and sea tidal effects (few 10-7 strain), this one is modulated by the mechanical effects of the free oscillations of the Gulf with periods between 8 and 40 min. The barometric pressure fluctuations acts in combination with the mean sea level variation at longer periods and both effects are not independant. The comparison between the strain data and the two forcing signals (sea-level, barometric pressure) shows clearly a non zero phase delay of the sea-level. The analysis of time correlations between the signals in differents frequency range exhibits that the sea level delay and the strainmeter/sea-level coupling coefficient are increasing with period (about 1/10 of a period for 10-40 hrs period range). This analysis allows us to estimate a transfert function for each forcing signal but the physical interpretation of the sea-level function is difficult. As the strainmeter is at 150m depth, below the shoreline, a sea water percolation on land would increase the effect of sea level fluctuation, and be more efficient at longer periods. This interpretation and the study of the mechanical effects on strainmeter allow us to accurate the sea level admittance and to remove the water effect from the strain data. This residual signals are studied in order to find slow transient signatures, especially during the reported seismic swarms.

Evaluation of Environmental Information Products for Search and Rescue Optimal Planning System (SAROPS) - Version for Public Release

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-02-01

is called EFS-POM. EFS-POM is forced by surface atmospheric forcing (wind, heating / cooling , sea level pressure) and by boundary forcing derived from...Peter Olsson, University of Alaska Anchorage. Heating and cooling is given by the climatological monthly heat flux from COADS (Comprehensive Ocean...Environmental Information Products for Search and Rescue Optimal Planning System (SAROPS) - Version for Public Release FINAL REPORT February

Global coastal flood hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eilander, Dirk; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Haag, Arjen; Verlaan, Martin; Luo, Tianyi

2017-04-01

Over 10% of the world's population lives in low-lying coastal areas (up to 10m elevation). Many of these areas are prone to flooding from tropical storm surges or extra-tropical high sea levels in combination with high tides. A 1 in 100 year extreme sea level is estimated to expose 270 million people and 13 trillion USD worth of assets to flooding. Coastal flood risk is expected to increase due to drivers such as ground subsidence, intensification of tropical and extra-tropical storms, sea level rise and socio-economic development. For better understanding of the hazard and drivers to global coastal flood risk, a globally consistent analysis of coastal flooding is required. In this contribution we present a comprehensive global coastal flood hazard mapping study. Coastal flooding is estimated using a modular inundation routine, based on a vegetation corrected SRTM elevation model and forced by extreme sea levels. Per tile, either a simple GIS inundation routine or a hydrodynamic model can be selected. The GIS inundation method projects extreme sea levels to land, taking into account physical obstructions and dampening of the surge level land inwards. For coastlines with steep slopes or where local dynamics play a minor role in flood behavior, this fast GIS method can be applied. Extreme sea levels are derived from the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Future sea level projections are based on probabilistic sea level rise for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The approach is validated against observed flood extents from ground and satellite observations. The results will be made available through the online Aqueduct Global Flood Risk Analyzer of the World Resources Institute.

Ice-sheet collapse and sea-level rise at the Bølling warming 14,600 years ago.

PubMed

Deschamps, Pierre; Durand, Nicolas; Bard, Edouard; Hamelin, Bruno; Camoin, Gilbert; Thomas, Alexander L; Henderson, Gideon M; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Yokoyama, Yusuke

2012-03-28

Past sea-level records provide invaluable information about the response of ice sheets to climate forcing. Some such records suggest that the last deglaciation was punctuated by a dramatic period of sea-level rise, of about 20 metres, in less than 500 years. Controversy about the amplitude and timing of this meltwater pulse (MWP-1A) has, however, led to uncertainty about the source of the melt water and its temporal and causal relationships with the abrupt climate changes of the deglaciation. Here we show that MWP-1A started no earlier than 14,650 years ago and ended before 14,310 years ago, making it coeval with the Bølling warming. Our results, based on corals drilled offshore from Tahiti during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project Expedition 310, reveal that the increase in sea level at Tahiti was between 12 and 22 metres, with a most probable value between 14 and 18 metres, establishing a significant meltwater contribution from the Southern Hemisphere. This implies that the rate of eustatic sea-level rise exceeded 40 millimetres per year during MWP-1A.

Relative sea-level rise around East Antarctica during Oligocene glaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocchi, Paolo; Escutia, Carlota; Houben, Alexander J. P.; Vermeersen, Bert L. A.; Bijl, Peter K.; Brinkhuis, Henk; Deconto, Robert M.; Galeotti, Simone; Passchier, Sandra; Pollard, David; Brinkhuis, Henk; Escutia, Carlota; Klaus, Adam; Fehr, Annick; Williams, Trevor; Bendle, James A. P.; Bijl, Peter K.; Bohaty, Steven M.; Carr, Stephanie A.; Dunbar, Robert B.; Flores, Jose Abel; Gonzàlez, Jhon J.; Hayden, Travis G.; Iwai, Masao; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Katsuki, Kota; Kong, Gee Soo; McKay, Robert M.; Nakai, Mutsumi; Olney, Matthew P.; Passchier, Sandra; Pekar, Stephen F.; Pross, Jörg; Riesselman, Christina; Röhl, Ursula; Sakai, Toyosaburo; Shrivastava, Prakash Kumar; Stickley, Catherine E.; Sugisaki, Saiko; Tauxe, Lisa; Tuo, Shouting; van de Flierdt, Tina; Welsh, Kevin; Yamane, Masako

2013-05-01

During the middle and late Eocene (~ 48-34Myr ago), the Earth's climate cooled and an ice sheet built up on Antarctica. The stepwise expansion of ice on Antarctica induced crustal deformation and gravitational perturbations around the continent. Close to the ice sheet, sea level rose despite an overall reduction in the mass of the ocean caused by the transfer of water to the ice sheet. Here we identify the crustal response to ice-sheet growth by forcing a glacial-hydro isostatic adjustment model with an Antarctic ice-sheet model. We find that the shelf areas around East Antarctica first shoaled as upper mantle material upwelled and a peripheral forebulge developed. The inner shelf subsequently subsided as lithosphere flexure extended outwards from the ice-sheet margins. Consequently the coasts experienced a progressive relative sea-level rise. Our analysis of sediment cores from the vicinity of the Antarctic ice sheet are in agreement with the spatial patterns of relative sea-level change indicated by our simulations. Our results are consistent with the suggestion that near-field processes such as local sea-level change influence the equilibrium state obtained by an ice-sheet grounding line.

Sea level forecasts for Pacific Islands based on Satellite Altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, H.; Merrifield, M. A.; Thompson, P. R.; Widlansky, M. J.; Marra, J. J.

2017-12-01

Coastal flooding at tropical Pacific Islands often occurs when positive sea level anomalies coincide with high tides. To help mitigate this risk, a forecast tool for daily-averaged sea level anomalies is developed that can be added to predicted tides at tropical Pacific Island sites. The forecast takes advantage of the observed westward propagation that sea level anomalies exhibit over a range of time scales. The daily near-real time altimetry gridded data from Archiving, Validation, and Interpretation of Satellite Oceanographic (AVISO) is used to specify upstream sea level at each site, with lead times computed based on mode-one baroclinic Rossby wave speeds. To validate the forecast, hindcasts are compared to tide gauge and nearby AVISO gridded time series. The forecast skills exceed persistence at most stations out to a month or more lead time. The skill is highest at stations where eddy variability is relatively weak. The impacts on the forecasts due to varying propagation speed, decay time, and smoothing of the AVISO data are examined. In addition, the inclusion of forecast winds in a forced wave equation is compared to the freely propagating results. Case studies are presented for seasonally high tide events throughout the Pacific Island region.

Shelfal sediment transport by undercurrents forces turbidity current activity during high sea level, Chile continental margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, Anne; Hebbeln, Dierk; Regenberg, Marcus; Lückge, Andreas; Strecker, Manfred. R.

2016-04-01

Understanding the links between terrigenous sediment supply and marine transport and depositional processes along tectonically active margins is essential to decipher turbidite successions as potential archives of climatic and seismic forcings and to comprehend timing and quantity of marine clastic deposition. Sequence stratigraphic models predict coarse-grained terrigenous sediment delivery to deep-marine sites mainly during sea-level fall and lowstand. Marine clastic deposition during periods of transgression and highstand has been attributed to the continued geomorphic connectivity between terrestrial sediment sources and marine sinks (e.g., rivers connected to submarine canyons) often facilitated by narrow shelves, high sediment supply causing delta migration to the shelf edge, and/or abrupt increases in sediment supply due to climatic variability or catastrophic events. To decipher the controls on Holocene highstand turbidite deposition, we analyzed twelve sediment cores of spatially disparate, coeval Holocene turbidite systems along the Chile margin (29-40°S) with changing climatic and geomorphic characteristics but uniform changes of sea level. Intraslope basins in north-central Chile (29-33°S) offshore a narrow to absent shelf record a shut-off of turbidite activity during the Holocene. In contrast, core sites in south-central Chile (36-40°S) offshore a wide continental shelf have repeatedly experienced turbidite deposition during sea-level highstand conditions, even though most of the depocenters are not connected via canyons to sediment sources. The interplay of stable high sediment supply related to strong onshore precipitation in combination with a wide shelf, over which undercurrents move sediment towards the shelf edge, appears to control Holocene turbidite sedimentation and sediment export to the deep sea.

Towards a full representation of tropical cyclones in a global reanalysis of extreme sea levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muis, S.; Verlaan, M.; Lin, N.; Winsemius, H.; Vatvani, D.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

2016-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs), including hurricanes and typhoons, are characterised by high wind speeds and low pressure, and cause dangerous storm surges in coastal areas. Recent disasters like the flooding of New Orleans in 2005 due to Hurricane Katrina and of New York in 2012 due to Hurricane Sandy exemplify the significant TC risk in the United States. In this contribution, we present a new framework to model TC storm surges and probabilities at the Atlantic basin- and, ultimately, global scales. This works builds on the work of Muis et al. (2016), which presented the first dynamically-derived reanalysis dataset of storm surges that covers the entire world's coastline (GTSR dataset). Surge levels for the period 1979-2014 were simulated by forcing the Global Surge and Tide Model (GTSM) with wind speed and atmospheric pressure from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. There is generally a good agreement between simulated and observed sea level extremes in extra-tropical regions; however for areas prone to TCs there is a severe underestimation of extremes. For example, the maximum surge levels during Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans exceeded 8 m, whilst the GTSM surge levels in that area do not exceed 2-3 m. Hence, due to the coarse grid resolution, the strong intensities of TCs are not fully captured in ERA-Interim. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim data set, like other reanalysis datasets, is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TC events in a reliable way. For accurate risk assessments it is essential to improve the representation of TCs in these global reanalysis of extreme sea levels. First, we need a higher resolution of meteorological forcing, which can be modelled with input from the observed best track data. Second, we need to statistically extend the observed record to many thousands of years. We will present the first results of these steps for the east coast of the United States. We will validate the GTSM model forced with best track data using recent extreme events like Katrina and Sandy. We will investigate how the statistics of the extreme sea level will change due to improved representation of TCs.

Exploring the Mass Balance and Sea Level Contribution of Global Glaciers During the Last Interglaciation and Mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S.; Ullman, D. J.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

2017-12-01

Understanding the behavior of the world's glaciers during previous interglaciations is key to interpreting the sensitivity and behavior of the cryosphere under scenarios of future anthropogenic warming. Previous studies of the Last Interglaciation (LIG, 130 ka to 116 ka) indicate elevated global temperatures and higher sea levels than the Holocene, but most assessments of the impact on the cryosphere have focused on the mass balance and volume change of polar ice sheets. In assessing sea-level sources, most studies assume complete deglacation of global glaciers, but this has yet to be tested. In addition, the significant changes in orbital forcing during the LIG and the associated impacts on climate seasonality and variability may have led to unique glacier evolution.Here, we explore the effect of LIG climate on the global glacier budget. We employ the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), forced by simulated LIG equilibrium climate anomalies (127 ka) from the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). OGGM is a glacier mass balance and dynamics model, specifically designed to reconstruct global glacier volume change. Our simulations have been conducted in an equilibrium state to determine the effect of the prolonged climate forcing of the LIG. Due to unknown flow characteristics of glaciers during the LIG, we explore the parametric uncertainty in the mass balance and flow sensitivity parameters. As a point of comparison, we also conduct a series of simulations using forcing anomalies from the CCSM3 mid-Holocene (6 ka) experiment. Results from both experiments show that glacier mass balance is highly sensitive to these sensitivity parameters, pointing at the need for glacier margin calibration for OGGM in paleoclimate applications.

Fluid flow and sediment transport in evolving sedimentary basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swenson, John Bradley

This thesis consists of three studies that focus on groundwater flow and sediment transport in evolving sedimentary basins. The first study considers the subsurface hydrodynamic response to basin-scale transgression and regression and its implications for stratiform ore genesis. I demonstrate that the transgressive sequence focuses marginward-directed, compaction-driven discharge within a basal aquifer during progradation and deposition of the overlying regressive sequence, isolates the basal aquifer from overlying flow systems, and serves as a chemical sink for metal-bearing brines. In the second study, I develop a new theory for the shoreline response to subsidence, sediment supply, and sea level. In this theory, sediment transport in a fluvio-deltaic basin is formally equivalent to heat transfer in a two-phase (liquid and isothermal solid) system: the fluvial system is analogous to a conduction-dominated liquid phase, the shoreline is the melting front, and the water depth at the delta toe is equivalent to the latent heat of fusion. A natural consequence of this theory is that sediment-starved basins do not possess an equilibrium state. In contrast to existing theories, I do not observe either strong phase shifting or attenuation of the shoreline response to low-frequency eustatic forcing; rather, shoreline tracks sea level over a spectrum of forcing frequencies, and its response to low-frequency forcing is amplified relative to the high-frequency response. For the third study, I use a set of dimensionless numbers from the previous study as a mathematical framework for providing a unified treatment of existing stratigraphic theories. In the limit of low-amplitude eustatic forcing, my study suggests that strong phase shifting between shoreline and sea level is a consequence of specifying the sedimentation rate at the shoreline; basins free of this constraint do not develop strong phase shifts.

Atmospheric conditions during the spring and fall transitions in the coastal ocean off western United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strub, P. Ted; James, Corinne

1988-01-01

Atmospheric events which force the spring and fall oceanic transitions in the coastal ocean off the west coast of North America were examined by analyzing the records of adjusted sea level (ASL), coastal wind stress, sea level atmospheric pressure (SLP), and 500-mbar heights for the years 1971-1975 and 1980-1983. The records cover periods of 91 days, centered on the dates of the spring and fall transitions as determined from coastal ASL data. It was found that the dominant mode of the ASL and coastal wind stress are similar around the times of both the spring and fall transitions, and that the time series for these modes are highly correlated with one another. Principal estimator patterns show the spatial patterns of SLP which force the ASL and coastal wind stress during the transitions.

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-01-01

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Uranium-Series Ages of Marine Terrace Corals from the Pacific Coast of North America and Implications for Last-Interglacial Sea Level History

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muhs, D.R.; Kennedy, G.L.; Rockwell, T.K.

1994-01-01

Few of the marine terraces along the Pacific coast of North America have been dated using uranium-series techniques. Ten terrace sequences from southern Oregon to southern Baja California Sur have yielded fossil corals in quantities suitable for U-series dating by alpha spectrometry. U-series-dated terraces representing the ???80,000 yr sea-level high stand are identified in five areas (Bandon, Oregon; Point Arena, San Nicolas Island, and Point Loma, California; and Punta Banda, Baja California); terraces representing the ???125,000 yr sea-level high stand are identified in eight areas (Cayucos, San Luis Obispo Bay, San Nicolas Island, San Clemente Island, and Point Loma, California; Punta Bands and Isla Guadalupe, Baja California; and Cabo Pulmo, Baja California Sur). On San Nicolas Island, Point Loma, and Punta Bands, both the ???80,000 and the ???125,000 yr terraces are dated. Terraces that may represent the ???105,000 sea-level high stand are rarely preserved and none has yielded corals for U-series dating. Similarity of coral ages from midlatitude, erosional marine terraces with coral ages from emergent, constructional reefs on tropical coastlines suggests a common forcing mechanism, namely glacioeustatically controlled fluctuations in sea level superimposed on steady tectonic uplift. The low marine terrace dated at ???125,000 yr on Isla Guadalupe, Baja California, presumed to be tectonically stable, supports evidence from other localities for a +6-m sea level at that time. Data from the Pacific Coast and a compilation of data from other coasts indicate that sea levels at ???80,000 and ???105,000 yr may have been closer to present sea level (within a few meters) than previous studies have suggested.

How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Applegate, Patrick J.; Keller, Klaus

2015-08-01

Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM’s ability to reduce long-term (≫103 yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM’s effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (<103 yr). Here, we assess AM’s ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM’s possible effects on future sea-level rise.

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Effects of sea-level rise and pumpage elimination on saltwater intrusion in the Hilton Head Island area, South Carolina, 2004-2104

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payne, Dorothy F.

2010-01-01

Saltwater intrusion of the Upper Floridan aquifer has been observed in the Hilton Head area, South Carolina since the late 1970s and currently affects freshwater supply. Rising sea level in the Hilton Head Island area may contribute to the occurrence of and affect the rate of saltwater intrusion into the Upper Floridan aquifer by increasing the hydraulic gradient and by inundating an increasing area with saltwater, which may then migrate downward into geologic units that presently contain freshwater. Rising sea level may offset any beneficial results from reductions in groundwater pumpage, and thus needs to be considered in groundwater-management decisions. A variable-density groundwater flow and transport model was modified from a previously existing model to simulate the effects of sea-level rise in the Hilton Head Island area. Specifically, the model was used to (1) simulate trends of saltwater intrusion from predevelopment to the present day (1885-2004) and evaluate the conceptual model, (2) project these trends from the present day into the future based on different potential rates of sea-level change, and (3) evaluate the relative influences of pumpage and sea-level rise on saltwater intrusion. Four scenarios were simulated for 2004-2104: (1) continuation of the estimated sea-level rise rate over the last century, (2) a doubling of the sea-level rise, (3) a cessation of sea-level rise, and (4) continuation of the rate over the last century coupled with an elimination of all pumpage. Results show that, if present-day (year 2004) pumping conditions are maintained, the extent of saltwater in the Upper Floridan aquifer will increase, whether or not sea level continues to rise. Furthermore, if all pumpage is eliminated and sea level continues to rise, the simulated saltwater extent in the Upper Floridan aquifer is reduced. These results indicate that pumpage is a strong driving force for simulated saltwater intrusion, more so than sea-level rise at current rates. However, results must be considered in light of limitations in the model, including, but not limited to uncertainty in field data, the conceptual model, the physical properties and representation of the hydrogeologic framework, and boundary and initial conditions, as well as uncertainty in future conditions, such as the rate of sea-level rise.

Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

PubMed

Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A

2015-07-01

Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end of this century.

Constraining Future Sea Level Rise Estimates from the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nias, I.; Cornford, S. L.; Edwards, T.; Gourmelen, N.; Payne, A. J.

2016-12-01

The Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) is the primary source of mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The catchment is particularly susceptible to grounding line retreat, because the ice sheet is grounded on bedrock that is below sea level and deepening towards its interior. Mass loss from the ASE ice streams, which include Pine Island, Thwaites and Smith glaciers, is a major uncertainty on future sea level rise, and understanding the dynamics of these ice streams is essential to constraining this uncertainty. The aim of this study is to construct a distribution of future ASE sea level contributions from an ensemble of ice sheet model simulations and observations of surface elevation change. A 284 member ensemble was performed using BISICLES, a vertically-integrated ice flow model with adaptive mesh refinement. Within the ensemble parameters associated with basal traction, ice rheology and sub-shelf melt rate were perturbed, and the effect of bed topography and sliding law were also investigated. Initially each configuration was run to 50 model years. Satellite observations of surface height change were then used within a Bayesian framework to assign likelihoods to each ensemble member. Simulations that better reproduced the current thinning patterns across the catchment were given a higher score. The resulting posterior distribution of sea level contributions is narrower than the prior distribution, although the central estimates of sea level rise are similar between the prior and posterior. The most extreme simulations were eliminated and the remaining ensemble members were extended to 200 years, using a simple melt rate forcing.

Interannual Sea Level Variations in the Tropical Indian Ocean from Geosat and Shallow Water Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perigaud, Claire; Delecluse, Pascale

1993-01-01

Sea level variations of the Indian Ocean north of 20 deg S are analyzed from Geosat satellite altimeter data over April 1985-September 1989. These variations are compared and interpreted with numerical simulations derived from a reduced gravity model forced by FSU observed winds over the same period. After decomposition into complex empirical orthogonal functions, the low-frequency anomalies are described by the first two modes for observations as well as for simulations. The sums of the two modes contain 34% and 40% of the observed and simulated variances, respectively. Averaged over the basin, the observed and simulated sea level changes are correlated by 0.92 over 1985-1988. The strongest change happens during the El Ninio 1986-1987: between winter 1986 and summer 1987 the basin-averaged sea level rises by approx. 1 cm. These low-frequency variations can partly be explained by changes in the Sverdrup circulation. The southern tropical Indian Ocean between 1O deg and 20 deg S is the domain where those changes are strongest: the averaged sea level rises by approx. 4.5 cm between winter 1986 and winter 1987. There, the signal propagates southwestward across the basin at a speed similar to free Rossby waves. Sensitivity of observed anomalies is examined over 1987-1988, with different orbit ephemeris, tropospheric corrections, and error reduction processes. The uncertainty of the basin-averaged sea level estimates is mostly due to the way the orbit error is reduced and reaches approx. 1 cm. Nonetheless, spatial correlation is good between the various observations and better than between observations and simulations. Sensitivity of simulated anomalies to the wind uncertainty, examined with Former Soviet Union (FSU) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forcings over 1985-1988, shows that the variance of the simulations driven by ECMWF is 52% smaller, as FSU winds are stronger than ECMWF. Results show that the wind strength also affects the dynamic response of the ocean: anomalies propagate westward across the basin more than twice as fast with FSU than with ECMWF. It is found that the discrepancy is larger between ECMWF and FSU simulations than between observations and FSU simulations.

Historical Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Processes of the Ponto-Caspian Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koriche, Sifan A.; Singarayer, Joy S.; Coe, Michael T.; Nandini, Sri; Prange, Matthias; Cloke, Hannah; Lunt, Dan

2017-04-01

The Ponto-Caspian basin is one of the largest basins globally, composed of a closed basin (Caspian Sea) and open basins connecting to the global ocean (Black and Azov Sea). Over the historical time period (1850-present) Caspian Sea levels have varied between -25 and -29mbsl (Arpe et al., 2012), resulting in considerable changes to the area of the lake (currently 371,000 km2). Given projections of future climate change and the importance of the Caspian Sea for fisheries, agriculture, and industry, it is vital to understand how sea levels may vary in the future. Hydrological models can be used to assess the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes for future forecasts. However, it is critical to first evaluate such models using observational data for the present and recent past, and to understand the key hydrological processes driving past changes in sea level. In this study, the Terrestrial Hydrological Model (THMB) (Coe, 2000, 2002) is applied and evaluated to investigate the hydrological processes of the Ponto-Caspian basin for the historical period 1900 to 2000. The model has been forced using observational reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-20) and historical climate model data outputs (from CESM and HadCM3 models) to investigate the variability in the Caspian Sea level and the major river discharges. We examine the differences produced by driving the hydrological model with reanalysis data or climate models. We evaluate the model performance compared to observational discharge measurements and Caspian Sea level data. Secondly, we investigated the sensitivity of historical Caspian Sea level variations to different aspects of climate changes to examine the most important processes involved over this time period.

Modeling of Long-Term Evolution of Hydrophysical Fields of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorofeyev, V. L.; Sukhikh, L. I.

2017-11-01

The long-term evolution of the Black Sea dynamics (1980-2020) is reconstructed by numerical simulation. The model of the Black Sea circulation has 4.8 km horizontal spatial resolution and 40 levels in z-coordinates. The mixing processes in the upper layer are parameterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulent model. For the sea surface boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing functions were used, provided for the Black Sea region by the Euro mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model. These data have a spatial resolution of 14 km and a daily temporal resolution. To evaluate the quality of the hydrodynamic fields derived from the simulation, they were compared with in-situ hydrological measurements and similar results from physical reanalysis of the Black Sea.

Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Pickering, Steven J.

2016-01-01

With varying CO2, orbit and sea ice albedo values we are able to reproduce proxy temperature records that lean towards modest levels of high latitude warming, but other proxy data showing greater warming remain beyond the reach of our model. This highlights the importance of additional proxy records at high latitudes and ongoing efforts to compare proxy signals between sites.

The contribution to future flood risk in the Severn Estuary from extreme sea level rise due to ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, N.; Bates, P. D.; Siddall, M.

2013-12-01

The rate at which sea levels will rise in the coming century is of great interest to decision makers tasked with developing mitigation policies to cope with the risk of coastal inundation. Accurate estimates of future sea levels are vital in the provision of effective policy. Recent reports from UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggest that mean sea levels in the UK may rise by as much as 80 cm by 2100; however, a great deal of uncertainty surrounds model predictions, particularly the contribution from ice sheets responding to climatic warming. For this reason, the application of semi-empirical modelling approaches for sea level rise predictions has increased of late, the results from which suggest that the rate of sea level rise may be greater than previously thought, exceeding 1 m by 2100. Furthermore, studies in the Red Sea indicate that rapid sea level rise beyond 1m per century has occurred in the past. In light of such research, the latest UKCIP assessment has included a H++ scenario for sea level rise in the UK of up to 1.9 m which is defined as improbable but, crucially, physically plausible. The significance of such low-probability sea level rise scenarios upon the estimation of future flood risk is assessed using the Somerset levels (UK) as a case study. A simple asymmetric probability distribution is constructed to include sea level rise scenarios of up to 1.9 m by 2100 which are added to a current 1:200 year event water level to force a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal inundation. From the resulting ensemble predictions an estimation of risk by 2100 is established. The results indicate that although the likelihood of extreme sea level rise due to rapid ice sheet mass loss is low, the resulting hazard can be large, resulting in a significant (27%) increase to the projected annual risk. Furthermore, current defence construction guidelines for the coming century in the UK are expected to account for 95% of the sea level rise distribution presented in this research, while the larger, low probability scenarios beyond this level are estimated to contribute a residual annual risk of approximately £0.45 million. These findings clearly demonstrate that uncertainty in future sea level rise is a vital component of coastal flood risk, and therefore, needs to be accounted for by decision makers when considering mitigation policies related to coastal flooding.

The Effects of Snow Depth Forcing on Southern Ocean Sea Ice Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Powel, Dylan C.; Markus, Thorsten; Stoessel, Achim

2003-01-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of snow on sea ice is an important factor for sea ice and climate models. First, it acts as an efficient insulator between the ocean and the atmosphere, and second, snow is a source of fresh water for altering the already weak Southern Ocean stratification. For the Antarctic, where the ice thickness is relatively thin, snow can impact the ice thickness in two ways: a) As mentioned above snow on sea ice reduces the ocean-atmosphere heat flux and thus reduces freezing at the base of the ice flows; b) a heavy snow load can suppress the ice below sea level which causes flooding and, with subsequent freezing, a thickening of the sea ice (snow-to-ice conversion). In this paper, we compare different snow fall paramterizations (incl. the incorporation of satellite-derived snow depth) and study the effect on the sea ice using a sea ice model.

Sun-stirred Kraken Mare: Circulation in Titan's seas induced by solar heating and methane precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokano, Tetsuya; Lorenz, Ralph D.

2016-05-01

Density-driven circulation in Titan's seas forced by solar heating and methane evaporation/precipitation is simulated by an ocean circulation model. If the sea is transparent to sunlight, solar heating can induce anti-clockwise gyres near the sea surface and clockwise gyres near the sea bottom. The gyres are in geostrophic balance between the radially symmetric pressure gradient force and Coriolis force. If instead the sea is turbid and most sunlight is absorbed near the sea surface, the sea gets stratified in warm seasons and the circulation remains weak. Precipitation causes compositional stratification of the sea to an extent that the sea surface temperature can be lower than the sea interior temperature without causing a convective overturning. Non-uniform precipitation can also generate a latitudinal gradient in the methane mole fraction and density, which drives a meridional overturning with equatorward currents near the sea surface and poleward currents near the sea bottom. However, gyres are more ubiquitous than meridional overturning.

Response of Arctic Snow and Sea Ice Extents to Melt Season Atmospheric Forcing Across the Land-Ocean Boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliss, A. C.; Anderson, M. R.

2011-12-01

Little research has gone into studying the concurrent variations in the annual loss of continental snow cover and sea ice extent across the land-ocean boundary, however, the analysis of these data averaged spatially over three study regions located in North America and Eastern and Western Russia, reveals a distinct difference in the response of anomalous snow and sea ice conditions to the atmospheric forcing. This study compares the monthly continental snow cover and sea ice extent loss in the Arctic, during the melt season months (May-August) for the period 1979-2007, with regional atmospheric conditions known to influence summer melt including: mean sea level pressures, 925 hPa air temperatures, and mean 2 m U and V wind vectors from NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2. The monthly hemispheric snow cover extent data used are from the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab and sea ice extents for this study are derived from the monthly passive microwave satellite Bootstrap algorithm sea ice concentrations available from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Three case study years (1985, 1996, and 2007) are used to compare the direct response of monthly anomalous sea ice and snow cover areal extents to monthly mean atmospheric forcing averaged spatially over the extent of each study region. This comparison is then expanded for all summer months over the 29 year study period where the monthly persistence of sea ice and snow cover extent anomalies and changes in the sea ice and snow conditions under differing atmospheric conditions are explored further. The monthly anomalous atmospheric conditions are classified into four categories including: warmer temperatures with higher pressures, warmer temperatures with lower pressures, cooler temperatures with higher pressures, and cooler temperatures with lower pressures. Analysis of the atmospheric conditions surrounding anomalous loss of snow and ice cover over the independent study regions indicates that conditions of warmer temperatures advected via southerly winds are effective at forcing melt, while conditions of anomalously cool temperatures with persistent, strong northeasterly winds in the later melt season months are also effective at removing anomalous extents of sea ice cover, likely through ice divergence. Normalized sea ice extent anomalies, regardless of the snow cover, tend to persist in the same positive or negative directions (or remain near normal) from month to month over the summer season in 73.6% of cases from June to July, in 69% of cases from July to August, and in 54% of cases for the entire season (June-August) for the 29 year study period. However, when shifts in the sea ice extent anomaly directions from the conditions present in the early melt season occur, it is generally associated with a shift in the atmospheric conditions forcing the change in sea ice extent loss for the region.

Red Sea circulation during marine isotope stage 5e

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siccha, Michael; Biton, Eli; Gildor, Hezi

2015-04-01

We have employed a regional Massachusetts Institute of Technology oceanic general circulation model of the Red Sea to investigate its circulation during marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, the peak of the last interglacial, approximately 125 ka before present. Compared to present-day conditions, MIS 5e was characterized by higher Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, accompanied by increases in air temperature of more than 2°C and global sea level approximately 8 m higher than today. As a consequence of the increased seasonality, intensified monsoonal conditions with increased winds, rainfall, and humidity in the Red Sea region are evident in speleothem records and supported by model simulations. To assess the dominant factors responsible for the observed changes, we conducted several sensitivity experiments in which the MIS 5 boundary conditions or forcing parameters were used individually. Overall, our model simulation for the last interglacial maximum reconstructs a Red Sea that is colder, less ventilated and probably more oligotrophic than at present day. The largest alteration in Red Sea circulation and properties was found for the simulation of the northward displacement and intensification of the African tropical rain belt during MIS 5e, leading to a notable increase in the fresh water flux into the Red Sea. Such an increase significantly reduced the Red Sea salinity and exchange volume of the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. The Red Sea reacted to the MIS 5e insolation forcing by the expected increase in seasonal sea surface temperature amplitude and overall cooling caused by lower temperatures during deep water formation in winter.

Precession and atmospheric CO2 modulated variability of sea ice in the central Okhotsk Sea since 130,000 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Li; Belt, Simon T.; Lattaud, Julie; Friedrich, Tobias; Zeeden, Christian; Schouten, Stefan; Smik, Lukas; Timmermann, Axel; Cabedo-Sanz, Patricia; Huang, Jyh-Jaan; Zhou, Liping; Ou, Tsong-Hua; Chang, Yuan-Pin; Wang, Liang-Chi; Chou, Yu-Min; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Chen, Min-Te; Wei, Kuo-Yen; Song, Sheng-Rong; Fang, Tien-Hsi; Gorbarenko, Sergey A.; Wang, Wei-Lung; Lee, Teh-Quei; Elderfield, Henry; Hodell, David A.

2018-04-01

Recent reduction in high-latitude sea ice extent demonstrates that sea ice is highly sensitive to external and internal radiative forcings. In order to better understand sea ice system responses to external orbital forcing and internal oscillations on orbital timescales, here we reconstruct changes in sea ice extent and summer sea surface temperature (SSST) over the past 130,000 yrs in the central Okhotsk Sea. We applied novel organic geochemical proxies of sea ice (IP25), SSST (TEX86L) and open water marine productivity (a tri-unsaturated highly branched isoprenoid and biogenic opal) to marine sediment core MD01-2414 (53°11.77‧N, 149°34.80‧E, water depth 1123 m). To complement the proxy data, we also carried out transient Earth system model simulations and sensitivity tests to identify contributions of different climatic forcing factors. Our results show that the central Okhotsk Sea was ice-free during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e and the early-mid Holocene, but experienced variable sea ice cover during MIS 2-4, consistent with intervals of relatively high and low SSST, respectively. Our data also show that the sea ice extent was governed by precession-dominated insolation changes during intervals of atmospheric CO2 concentrations ranging from 190 to 260 ppm. However, the proxy record and the model simulation data show that the central Okhotsk Sea was near ice-free regardless of insolation forcing throughout the penultimate interglacial, and during the Holocene, when atmospheric CO2 was above ∼260 ppm. Past sea ice conditions in the central Okhotsk Sea were therefore strongly modulated by both orbital-driven insolation and CO2-induced radiative forcing during the past glacial/interglacial cycle.

Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: Will projections ever become reliable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, J. K.

2014-12-01

Global sea level rise has the potential to become one of the most costly and least well predicted impacts of human caused climate change. Unlike global surface temperature, the spread of possible scenarios (as little as 1 foot and as much as 6 feet by 2100) is not due to uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, but rather by a fundamental lack of knowledge about how the major ice sheets will behave in a warming climate. Clearly improved projections of sea level rise should become a major research priority in the next decade. At present, controversial techniques based on comparison with historical analogs and rates of recent warming and sea level rise are often used to create projections for the 21st Century. However, many in the scientific community feel that reliable projections must be based on a sound knowledge of the physics governing sea level rise, and particularly ice sheet behavior. In particular, large portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet rest on solid earth that sits below sea level. These regions may be threatened, not by atmospheric warming or changes in precipitation, but rather by direct forcing from the ocean. Fledgling efforts to understand these ocean ice interactions are already underway, as are efforts to make improved models of ice sheet behavior. However a great deal of work is still needed before widely accepted projections of sea level rise become a reality. This paper will highlight the hurdles to making such projections today and suggest ways forward in this critical area of research.

Contribution of atmospheric circulation to recent off-shore sea-level variations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karabil, Sitar; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit

2018-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to quantify the contribution of atmospheric factors to recent off-shore sea-level variability in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea on interannual timescales. For this purpose, we statistically analysed sea-level records from tide gauges and satellite altimetry and several climatic data sets covering the last century. Previous studies had concluded that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the main pattern of atmospheric variability affecting sea level in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea in wintertime. However, we identify a different atmospheric circulation pattern that is more closely connected to sea-level variability than the NAO. This circulation pattern displays a link to sea level that remains stable through the 20th century, in contrast to the much more variable link between sea level and the NAO. We denote this atmospheric variability mode as the Baltic Sea and North Sea Oscillation (BANOS) index. The sea-level pressure (SLP) BANOS pattern displays an SLP dipole with centres of action located over (5° W, 45° N) and (20° E, 70° N) and this is distinct from the standard NAO SLP pattern in wintertime. In summertime, the discrepancy between the SLP BANOS and NAO patterns becomes clearer, with centres of action of the former located over (30° E, 45° N) and (20° E, 60° N). This index has a stronger connection to off-shore sea-level variability in the study area than the NAO in wintertime for the period 1993-2013, explaining locally up to 90 % of the interannual sea-level variance in winter and up to 79 % in summer. The eastern part of the Gulf of Finland is the area where the BANOS index is most sensitive to sea level in wintertime, whereas the Gulf of Riga is the most sensitive region in summertime. In the North Sea region, the maximum sea-level sensitivity to the BANOS pattern is located in the German Bight for both winter and summer seasons. We investigated, and when possible quantified, the contribution of several physical mechanisms which may explain the link between the sea-level variability and the atmospheric pattern described by the BANOS index. These mechanisms include the inverse barometer effect (IBE), freshwater balance, net energy surface flux and wind-induced water transport. We found that the most important mechanism is the IBE in both wintertime and summertime. Assuming a complete equilibration of seasonal sea level to the SLP gradients over this region, the IBE can explain up to 88 % of the sea-level variability attributed to the BANOS index in wintertime and 34 % in summertime. The net energy flux at the surface is found to be an important factor for the variation of sea level, explaining 35 % of sea-level variance in wintertime and a very small amount in summer. The freshwater flux could only explain 27 % of the variability in summertime and a negligible part in winter. In contrast to the NAO, the direct wind forcing associated with the SLP BANOS pattern does not lead to transport of water from the North Sea into the Baltic Sea in wintertime.

Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

2014-12-01

In the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October-December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS has a clear skill in predicting the actual probability distribution of sea level, and it outperforms simple "dressed" PF methods. A probability estimate based on the single DF is shown to be inadequate. However, a PF obtained with a prescribed Gaussian distribution and centered on the DF value performs very similarly to the EPS-based PF.

Allogenic and Autogenic Signals in the Stratigraphic Record of the Deep-Sea Bengal Fan.

PubMed

Blum, Mike; Rogers, Kimberly; Gleason, James; Najman, Yani; Cruz, Jarrett; Fox, Lyndsey

2018-05-22

The Himalayan-sourced Ganges-Brahmaputra river system and the deep-sea Bengal Fan represent Earth's largest sediment-dispersal system. Here we present detrital zircon U-Pb provenance data from Miocene to middle Pleistocene Bengal Fan turbidites, and evaluate the influence of allogenic forcing vs. autogenic processes on signal propagation from the Himalaya to the deep sea. Our data record the strong tectonic and climatic forcing characteristic of the Himalayan system: after up to 2500 km of river transport, and >1400 km of transport by turbidity currents, the U-Pb record faithfully represents Himalayan sources. Moreover, specific U-Pb populations record Miocene integration of the Brahmaputra drainage with the Asian plate, as well as the rapid Plio-Pleistocene incision through, and exhumation of, the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. The record is, however, biased towards glacial periods when rivers were extended across the shelf in response to climate-forced sea-level fall, and discharged directly to slope canyons. Finally, only part of the record represents a Ganges or Brahmaputra provenance end-member, and most samples represent mixing from the two systems. Mixing or the lack thereof likely represents the fingerprint of autogenic delta-plain avulsions, which result in the two rivers delivering sediment separately to a shelf-margin canyon or merging together as they do today.

Evaluating trophic cascades as drivers of regime shifts in different ocean ecosystems

PubMed Central

Pershing, Andrew J.; Mills, Katherine E.; Record, Nicholas R.; Stamieszkin, Karen; Wurtzell, Katharine V.; Byron, Carrie J.; Fitzpatrick, Dominic; Golet, Walter J.; Koob, Elise

2015-01-01

In ecosystems that are strongly structured by predation, reducing top predator abundance can alter several lower trophic levels—a process known as a trophic cascade. A persistent trophic cascade also fits the definition of a regime shift. Such ‘trophic cascade regime shifts' have been reported in a few pelagic marine systems—notably the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and eastern Scotian Shelf—raising the question of how common this phenomenon is in the marine environment. We provide a general methodology for distinguishing top-down and bottom-up effects and apply this methodology to time series from these three ecosystems. We found evidence for top-down forcing in the Black Sea due primarily to gelatinous zooplankton. Changes in the Baltic Sea are primarily bottom-up, strongly structured by salinity, but top-down forcing related to changes in cod abundance also shapes the ecosystem. Changes in the eastern Scotian Shelf that were originally attributed to declines in groundfish are better explained by changes in stratification. Our review suggests that trophic cascade regime shifts are rare in open ocean ecosystems and that their likelihood increases as the residence time of water in the system increases. Our work challenges the assumption that negative correlation between consecutive trophic levels implies top-down forcing.

Sun-stirred Kraken Mare: Circulation in Titan's seas induced by solar heating and methane precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokano, T.; Lorenz, R. D.

2015-10-01

Density-driven circulation in Titan's seas forced by solar heating and methane evaporation/precipitation is simulated by an ocean circulation model. If the sea is transparent to sunlight, solar heating can induce anti-clockwise gyres near the sea surface and clockwise gyres near the sea bottom. The gyres are in geostrophic balance between the radially symmetric pressure gradient force and Coriolis force. If instead the sea is turbid and most sunlight is absorbed near the sea surface, the sea gets stratified in warm seasons and the circulation remains weak. Strong summer precipitation at high latitudes causes compositional stratification and increase of the nearsurface methane mole fraction towards the north pole. The resultant latitudinal density contrast drives a meridional overturning with equatorward currents near the sea surface and poleward currents near the sea bottom. Weak precipitation induces gyres rather than meridional overturning.

The use of EuroCordex in marine climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinker, Jonathan; Palmer, Matthew; Lowe, Jason; Howard, Tom

2017-04-01

The Northwest European Shelf seas (NWS, including the North Sea, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea) are of economic, environmental and cultural importance to a number of European countries. However, their representation by global climate models (GCMs) is very crude, due to their inability to represent the complex geometry and the absence of tides. Therefore, there is a need to employ dynamical downscaling methods when considering the potential impacts of climate change on the European (and other) shelf seas. Using a shelf seas model to dynamically downscale of the ocean component of the GCM is a well established method. While taking open ocean lateral boundary conditions from the GCM ocean is acceptable, using surface flux forcings from the GCM atmosphere is often problematic. The CORDEX project provides an important dataset of high spatial and temporal resolution atmospheric forcings, derived from 'parent' CMIP5 GCM simulations. We drive the NEMO shelf seas model with data from CMIP5 models and EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) data to produce a set of NWS climate projections. We require relatively high temporal resolution output, and run-off (for the river forcings), and so are limited to a subset of the available EURO-CORDEX RCMs. From these we select two CMIP5 GCMs with the same RCM with two emissions scenarios to give a minimum estimate of GCM model structural and emission scenario uncertainty. Other experiments allow an initial estimate of the uncertainty associated with the model structure of both the shelf seas and the RCM. Our analysis is focused on the uncertainty associated with the mean change in a number of physical marine impacts and the drivers of coastal variability and change, including sea level and the propagation of open ocean signals onto the shelf. Our work is part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) and will inform the following UK Climate Change Risk Assessments, required as part of the Climate Change Act.

Interactions of Estuarine Shoreline Infrastructure With Multiscale Sea Level Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ruo-Qian; Herdman, Liv M.; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Hummel, Michelle; Stacey, Mark T.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short-term water-rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level variabilities, coastal infrastructure, and sea level rise. We performed a series of numerical simulations for San Francisco Bay to examine two shoreline scenarios and a series of short-term and long-term sea level variations. The two shoreline configurations include the existing topography and a coherent full-bay containment that follows the existing land boundary with an impermeable wall. The sea level variability consists of a half-meter perturbation, with duration ranging from 2 days to permanent (i.e., sea level rise). The extent of coastal flooding was found to increase with the duration of the high-water-level event. The nonlinear interaction between these intermediate scale events and astronomical tidal forcing only contributes ˜1% of the tidal heights; at the same time, the tides are found to be a dominant factor in establishing the evolution and diffusion of multiday high water events. Establishing containment at existing shorelines can change the tidal height spectrum up to 5%, and the impact of this shoreline structure appears stronger in the low-frequency range. To interpret the spatial and temporal variability at a wide range of frequencies, Optimal Dynamic Mode Decomposition is introduced to analyze the coastal processes and an inverse method is applied to determine the coefficients of a 1-D diffusion wave model that quantify the impact of bottom roughness, tidal basin geometry, and shoreline configuration on the high water events.

A numerical study of the South China Sea Warm Current during winter monsoon relaxation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Cong; Ding, Yang; Bao, Xianwen; Bi, Congcong; Li, Ruixiang; Zhang, Cunjie; Shen, Biao; Wan, Kai

2018-03-01

Using a Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, we investigated the dynamic mechanism of the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) during winter monsoon relaxation. The model reproduces the mean surface circulation of the NSCS during winter, while model-simulated subtidal currents generally capture its current pattern. The model shows that the current over the continental shelf is generally southwestward, under a strong winter monsoon condition, but a northeastward counter-wind current usually develops between 50-and 100-m isobaths, when the monsoon relaxes. Model experiments, focusing on the wind relaxation process, show that sea level is elevated in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS), related to the persistent northeasterly monsoon. Following wind relaxation, a high sea level band builds up along the mid-shelf, and a northeastward current develops, having an obvious vertical barotropic structure. Momentum balance analysis indicates that an along-shelf pressure gradient provides the initial driving force for the SCSWC during the first few days following wind relaxation. The SCSWC subsequently reaches a steady quasi-geostrophic balance in the cross-shelf direction, mainly linked to sea level adjustment over the shelf. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments show that both the southwestward coastal current and slope current contribute to the northeastward movement of the SCSWC during winter monsoon relaxation.

Effect of altitude on spirometric parameters and the performance of peak flow meters.

PubMed Central

Pollard, A. J.; Mason, N. P.; Barry, P. W.; Pollard, R. C.; Collier, D. J.; Fraser, R. S.; Miller, M. R.; Milledge, J. S.

1996-01-01

BACKGROUND: Portable peak flow meters are used in clinical practice for measurement of peak expiratory flow (PEF) at many different altitudes throughout the world. Some PEF meters are affected by gas density. This study was undertaken to establish which type of meter is best for use above sea level and to determine changes in spirometric measurements at altitude. METHODS: The variable orifice mini-Wright peak flow meter was compared with the fixed orifice Micro Medical Microplus turbine microspirometer at sea level and at Everest Base Camp (5300 m). Fifty one members of the 1994 British Mount Everest Medical Expedition were studied (age range, 19-55). RESULTS: Mean forced vital capacity (FVC) fell by 5% and PEF rose by 25.5%. However, PEF recorded with the mini-Wright peak flow meter underestimated PEF by 31%, giving readings 6.6% below sea level values. FVC was lowest in the mornings and did not improve significantly with acclimatisation. Lower PEF values were observed on morning readings and were associated with higher acute mountain sickness scores, although the latter may reflect decreased effort in those with acute mountain sickness. There was no change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) at altitude when measured with the turbine microspirometer. CONCLUSIONS: The cause of the fall in FVC at 5300 m is unknown but may be attributed to changes in lung blood volume, interstitial lung oedema, or early airways closure. Variable orifice peak flow meters grossly underestimate PEF at altitude and fixed orifice devices are therefore preferable where accurate PEF measurements are required above sea level. PMID:8711651

A global low order spectral model designed for climate sensitivity studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanna, A. F.; Stevens, D. E.

1984-01-01

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate is developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only with moist convective adjustment between the two layers. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a lower boundary vertical velocity. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. On land and sea ice surfaces a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. Over the oceans the sea surface temperatures are prescribed from the climatological average of January. The model is integrated to simulate the January climate.

Intraseasonal flow and its impact on the chlorophyll-a concentration in the Sunda Strait and its vicinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Tengfei; Li, Shujiang; Hamzah, Faisal; Setiawan, Agus; Susanto, R. Dwi; Cao, Guojiao; Wei, Zexun

2018-06-01

Sunda Strait is the outflow strait of the South China Sea branch of the Pacific to Indian Ocean Throughflow. The annual mean volume transport through the Sunda Strait is around 0.25 Sv from the Java Sea to the eastern Indian Ocean, only 2.5% of the IndonesianThroughflow, and thus has been ignored by previous investigations. However, the Nutrient concentrations in the Sunda Strait and its vicinity are found highly related to the water transport through the Sunda Strait. Particularly, our observation shows significant intraseasonal variability (ISV) of currents at period around 25-45 days in the Sunda Strait. Both remote and local wind forcing contribute to the ISVs in the Sunda Strait. The intraseasonal oscillation of sea surface wind in the central Indian Ocean drives upwelling/downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves to propagate along the equator and subsequently along the Sumatra-Java coasts, resulting in negative/positive sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait. The local intraseasonal sea surface wind anomalies also tend to induce negative/positive sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait by offshore/onshore Ekman transport while there are upwelling/downwelling events. The ensuring sea level gradient associated with the sea level anomalies in the south of the Sunda Strait induces intraseasonal outflow (from Indian Ocean to Java Sea) and inflow (from Java Sea to Indian Ocean) through the strait. Analyses also show that the chlorophyll-a concentrations in the south of the Sunda Strait are lower/higher during the inflow/outflow period of the ISV events in March through May. The mechanism attributes to both the nutrient-rich water transported by the intraseasonal flow in the Sunda Strait and by the upwelling and Ekman transport driven by the local sea surface wind anomalies.

Osmolyte Adjustments as a Pressure Adaptation in Deep-Sea Chondrichthyan Fishes: An Intraspecific Test in Arctic Skates (Amblyraja hyperborea) along a Depth Gradient.

PubMed

Yancey, Paul H; Speers-Roesch, Ben; Atchinson, Sheila; Reist, James D; Majewski, Andrew R; Treberg, Jason R

Accumulation of trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) by deep-sea animals is proposed to protect proteins against the destabilizing effects of high hydrostatic pressure (the piezolyte hypothesis). Chondrichthyan fishes (sharks, rays, and chimaeras) provide a unique test of this hypothesis because shallow-living species have elevated TMAO levels to counteract the destabilizing effects of high urea levels accumulated for osmoregulation. Limited interspecific studies of chondrichthyans reveal that increasing depth correlates with decreased urea and increased TMAO levels, suggesting a dynamic balance between destabilizing forces on proteins (high urea, hydrostatic pressure) and TMAO to counteract these forces. Indeed, an inability to minimize urea levels or maximize TMAO levels has been proposed to explain why chondrichthyans are absent in the vast abyssal region. An unresolved question is whether the depth-related changes in chondrichthyan osmolytes are a flexible response to depth or whether phylogenetic differences in species-specific physiological set points for osmolytes account for the differences seen with depth. Sampling Arctic skates (Amblyraja hyperborea) across a 1,015-m depth gradient in the Beaufort Sea, we measured organic osmolytes in muscle using spectrophotometry and high-performance liquid chromatography. We found that the urea-to-TMAO ratio decreased linearly with depth, with tighter correlation than that seen in interspecific studies. Minor osmolytes, including betaine, sarcosine, and some α-amino acids, also declined with depth, apparently replaced (as with urea) by TMAO (a stronger piezolyte than those solutes). These data provide the first intraspecific evidence that flexible adjustments of osmolyte combinations are a key response for deep-sea living in individual chondrichthyans, supporting the piezolyte hypothesis.

Seismicity and strain transients in the Gulf of Corinth (Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canitano, A.; Bernard, P.; Linde, A. T.; Sacks, S. I.; Boudin, F.

2009-12-01

The Gulf of Corinth (Greece) is one of the most seismic regions in Europe, producing some earthquakes of magnitude greater than 5.8 in the last 35 years, 1 to 1.5 cm/yr of north-south extension, and frequent seismic swarms. This structure is a 110 km long, N110°E oriented graben bounded by systems of very recent normal faults. This zone thus provides an ideal site for investigating in situ the physics of earthquake sources and for developing efficient seismic hazard reduction procedures. The Corinth Rift Laboratory (CRL) project is concentrated in the western part of the rift, around the city of Aigion, where instrumental seismicity and strain rate is highest. The CRL Network is made up about fifteen seismic stations as well as tiltmeters, strainmeters or GPS in order to study the local seismicity, and to observe and model the short and long term mechanics of the normal fault system. The instrumental seismicity in the Aigion zone clearly shows a strong concentration of small earthquakes between 5 and 10 km. In order to study slow transient deformation, two borehole strainmeters have been installed in the Gulf (Trizonia, Monasteraki). The strainmeter installed in the Trizonia island is continuously recording the horizontal strain at 150m depth with a resolution better than 10-9. The dominant signal is the earth and sea tidal effects (few 10-7 strain), this one is modulated by the mechanical effects of the free oscillations of the Gulf with periods between 8 and 40 min. The barometric pressure fluctuations acts in combination with the mean sea level variation at longer periods and both effects are not independant. The comparison between the strain data and the two forcing signals (sea-level, barometric pressure) shows clearly a non zero phase delay of the sea-level. The analysis of time correlations between the signals in differents frequency range exhibits that the sea level delay and the strainmeter/sea-level coupling coefficient are increasing with period (about 1/10 of a period for 10-40 hrs period range). This analysis allows us to estimate a transfert function for each forcing signal but the physical interpretation of the sea-level function is still unclear. As the strainmeter is at 150m depth, below the shoreline, a sea water percolation on land would increase the effect of sea level fluctuation, and be more efficient at longer periods. This interpretation allow us to study accurately this external perturbations and to remove them from the strain signal. The residual signal is 8 times smaller than the original strain signal for 10mn-1hr period (RMS=0,27.10-9 strain and no sea-level signal delay) and 4 times for 30-40hr (RMS=0,63.10-9 strain). This residual signals are studied in order to find slow transient signatures, especially during the reported seismic swarms.

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

2011-01-01

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the evolution of central California's shoreline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Storlazzi, Curt D.; Griggs, Gary B.

2000-01-01

Significant sea-cliff erosion and storm damage occurred along the central coast of California during the 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño winters. This generated interest among scientists and land-use planners in how historic El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) winters have affected the coastal climate of central California. A relative ENSO intensity index based on oceanographic and meteorologic data defines the timing and magnitude of ENSO events over the past century. The index suggests that five higher intensity (relative values 4–6) and 17 lower intensity (relative values 1–3) ENSO events took place between 1910 and 1995. The ENSO intensity index correlates with fluctuations in the time series of cyclone activity, precipitation, detrended sea level, wave height, sea-surface temperature, and sea-level barometric pressure. Wave height, sea level, and precipitation, which are the primary external forcing parameters in sea-cliff erosion, increase nonlinearly with increasing relative ENSO event intensity. The number of storms that caused coastal erosion or storm damage and the historic occurrence of large-scale sea-cliff erosion along the central coast also increase nonlinearly with increasing relative event intensity. These correlations and the frequency distribution of relative ENSO event intensities indicate that moderate- to high-intensity ENSO events cause the most sea-cliff erosion and shoreline recession over the course of a century.

An Experimental Real-Time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System for Intra America Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, D. S.; Preller, R. H.; Martin, P. J.

2003-04-01

An experimental real-time Ocean Nowcast/Forecast System has been developed for the Intra America Seas (IASNFS). The area of coverage includes the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. The system produces nowcast and up to 72 hours forecast the sea level variation, 3D ocean current, temperature and salinity fields. IASNFS consists an 1/24 degree (~5 km), 41-level sigma-z data-assimilating ocean model based on NCOM. For daily nowcast/forecast the model is restarted from previous nowcast. Once model is restarted it continuously assimilates the synthetic temperature/salinity profiles generated by a data analysis model called MODAS to produce nowcast. Real-time data come from satellite altimeter (GFO, TOPEX/Poseidon, ERS-2) sea surface height anomaly and AVHRR sea surface temperature. Three hourly surface heat fluxes, including solar radiation, wind stresses and sea level air pressure from NOGAPS/FNMOC are applied for surface forcing. Forecasts are produced with available NOGAPS forecasts. Once the nowcast/forecast are produced they are distributed through the Internet via the updated web pages. The open boundary conditions including sea surface elevation, transport, temperature, salinity and currents are provided by the NRL 1/8 degree Global NCOM which is operated daily. An one way coupling scheme is used to ingest those boundary conditions into the IAS model. There are 41 rivers with monthly discharges included in the IASNFS.

Science Support for Climate Change Adaptation in South Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Early, Laura M.; Harvey, Rebecca G.

2010-01-01

Earth's changing climate is among the foremost conservation challenges of the 21st century, threatening to permanently alter entire ecosystems and contribute to extinctions of species. Lying only a few feet above sea level and already suffering effects of anthropogenic stressors, south Florida's ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. Recent research accounting for the gravitational effects of melting ice sheets predicts that sea level rise on U.S. coastlines will be much higher than global averages (Gomez et al. 2010), and the Miami-Dade Climate Change Advisory Task Force predicts that local sea level rise will be at least 3 to 5 ft. (0.9 m to 1.5 m) by 2100 (MDCCATF 2008). In a 5 ft. scenario, up to 873 additional square miles of the Everglades would be inundated with saltwater (see maps below). Accelerated sea level rise is likely to be accompanied by increasing temperatures (IPCC 2007a) and more intense tropical storms and hurricanes (Webster et al. 2005). In addition, changes in amount, timing, and distribution of rainfall in south Florida may lead to more severe droughts and floods (SFWMD 2009).

Hierarchy of sedimentary discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds from the middle Paleozoic of eastern North America: Implications for cratonic sequence stratigraphy

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaughlin, P.I.; Brett, Carlton E.; Wilson, M.A.

2008-01-01

Sedimentological analyses of middle Paleozoic epeiric sea successions in North America suggest a hierarchy of discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds of increasing complexity. Simple firmgrounds and hardgrounds, which are comparatively ephemeral features, form the base of the hierarchy. Composite hardgrounds, reworked concretions, authigenic mineral crusts and monomictic intraformational conglomerates indicate more complex histories. Polymictic intraformational conglomerates, ironstones and phosphorites form the most complex discontinuity surfaces and condensed beds. Complexity of discontinuities is closely linked to depositional environments duration of sediment starvation and degree of reworking which in turn show a relationship to stratigraphic cyclicity. A model of cratonic sequence stratigraphy is generated by combining data on the complexity and lateral distribution of discontinuities in the context of facies successions. Lowstand, early transgressive and late transgressive systems tracts are representative of sea-level rise. Early and late transgressive systems tracts are separated by the maximum starvation surface (typically a polymictic intraformational conglomerate or condensed phosphorite), deposited during the peak rate of sea-level rise. Conversely the maximum flooding surface, representing the highest stand of sea level, is marked by little to no break in sedimentation. The highstand and falling stage systems tracts are deposited during relative sea-level fall. They are separated by the forced-regression surface, a thin discontinuity surface or condensed bed developed during the most rapid rate of sea-level fall. The lowest stand of sea level is marked by the sequence boundary. In subaerially exposed areas it is occasionally modified as a rockground or composite hardground.

Hotspot of accelerated sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.

2012-01-01

Climate warming does not force sea-level rise (SLR) at the same rate everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on a global average rise. These variations are forced by dynamic processes, arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity, and by static equilibrium processes, arising from mass redistributions changing gravity and the Earth's rotation and shape. These sea-level variations form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few observations verifying predicted patterns or fingerprints. Here, we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint of dynamic SLR. Between 1950–1979 and 1980–2009, SLR rate increases in this northeast hotspot were ~ 3–4 times higher than the global average. Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100 at New York City ranges with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario from 36 to 51 cm (ref. 3); lower emission scenarios project 24–36 cm (ref. 7). Extrapolations from data herein range from 20 to 29 cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to flooding, and beaches and wetlands to deterioration.

Wind-driven variations in an overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bringedal, Carina; Eldevik, Tor; Spall, Michael

2017-04-01

The Atlantic overturning circulation and poleward heat transport is balanced by northern heat loss to the atmosphere and corresponding water mass transformation. The structure of this circulation and transformation is particularly manifested - and observed - at the Greenland-Scotland ridge. There is however a rich variability in the exchanges across the ridge on seasonal and yearly time scales. This variability has been almost perfectly captured in atmospherically forced ocean GCMs (e.g. Olsen et al 2008, Sandø et al 2012), suggesting that on shorter time scales the variability of the exchanges are connected to sea level pressure and corresponding wind stress forcing. Focusing on seasonal and yearly time scales, we accordingly propose that the connection between the exchanges of overturning waters across the Greenland-Scotland ridge and the sea level pressure must be direct and simple, and we use idealized simulations to support this hypothesis. The mechanisms underlying the connection are formulated through conceptual models. Although the models and simulations are simplified with respect to bathymetry and hydrography, they can reproduce the main features of the overturning circulation in the Nordic seas. In the observations, the variable exchanges can largely be related to sea level pressure variations and large scale wind patterns, and the idealized simulations and accompanying conceptual models show how these impacts can manifest via coastal downwelling and gyre circulation. S. M. Olsen, B. Hansen, D. Quadfasel and S. Østerhus, Observed and modelled stability of overflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge, Nature 455, (2008) A. B. Sandø, J. E. Ø. Nilsen, T. Eldevik and M. Bentsen, Mechanisms for variable North Atlantic-Nordic seas exchanges, Journal of Geophysical Research 117, (2012)

Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bittermann, K.; Kemp, A.; Vermeer, M.; Rahmstorf, S.

2017-12-01

Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the `Holocene Optimum'. From ­­there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with semi-empirical sea-level models. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., et al. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews, 103, 91-115. Golledge, N.R., et al. 2014. Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning. Nature communications, 5, 5107. Vinther, B.M., et al. 2009. Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet. Nature, 461(7262), 385-388.

Tropical Forcing of the Summer East Atlantic Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wulff, C. Ole; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Gollan, Gereon; Hansen, Felicitas

2017-11-01

The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.

Sea-Level Acceleration Hotspot along the Atlantic Coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sallenger, A. H.; Doran, K. J.; Howd, P.

2012-12-01

Spatial variations of sea level rise (SLR) can be forced by dynamic processes arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity, and by static equilibrium processes arising from mass re-distributions changing gravity and the earth's rotation and shape. The sea-level variations can form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few field observations verifying predicted patterns, or fingerprints. We present evidence of SLR acceleration in a 1,000-km-long hotspot on the North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to above Boston, Massachusetts. By using accelerations, or rate differences, sea level signals that are linear over sub-century records, like the relative sea level changes arising from vertical land movements of glacial isostatic adjustment, do not affect our results. For a 60-yr regression window (between 1950-1979 and 1980-2009), mean increase in the rate of SLR in the hotspot was 1.97 ± 0.64 mm/yr. (For a 40-yr window, the mean rate increase was 3.80 ± 1.06 mm/yr.) South of Cape Hatteras to Key West, Florida, rate differences for either 60 yr or 40 yr windows were not statistically different from zero (e.g. for 60 yr window: mean= 0.11 ± 0.92 mm/yr). This pattern is similar to a fingerprint of dynamic SLR established by sea-level projections in several climate model studies. Correlations were consistent with accelerated SLR associated with a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current.

The rotational feedback on linear-momentum balance in glacial isostatic adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinec, Zdenek; Hagedoorn, Jan

2015-04-01

The influence of changes in surface ice-mass redistribution and associated viscoelastic response of the Earth, known as glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), on the Earth's rotational dynamics has long been known. Equally important is the effect of the changes in the rotational dynamics on the viscoelastic deformation of the Earth. This signal, known as the rotational feedback, or more precisely, the rotational feedback on the sea-level equation, has been mathematically described by the sea-level equation extended for the term that is proportional to perturbation in the centrifugal potential and the second-degree tidal Love number. The perturbation in the centrifugal force due to changes in the Earth's rotational dynamics enters not only into the sea-level equation, but also into the conservation law of linear momentum such that the internal viscoelastic force, the perturbation in the gravitational force and the perturbation in the centrifugal force are in balance. Adding the centrifugal-force perturbation to the linear-momentum balance creates an additional rotational feedback on the viscoelastic deformations of the Earth. We term this feedback mechanism as the rotational feedback on the linear-momentum balance. We extend both the time-domain method for modelling the GIA response of laterally heterogeneous earth models and the traditional Laplace-domain method for modelling the GIA-induced rotational response to surface loading by considering the rotational feedback on linear-momentum balance. The correctness of the mathematical extensions of the methods is validated numerically by comparing the polar motion response to the GIA process and the rotationally-induced degree 2 and order 1 spherical harmonic component of the surface vertical displacement and gravity field. We present the difference between the case where the rotational feedback on linear-momentum balance is considered against that where it is not. Numerical simulations show that the resulting difference in radial displacement and sea-level change between these situations since the Last Glacial Maximum reaches values of ± 25 m and ± 1.8 m, respectively. Furthermore, the surface deformation pattern is modified by up to 10% in areas of former or ongoing glaciation, but by up to 50% at the bottom of the southern Indian ocean. This also results in the movement of coastlines during the last deglaciation to differ between the two cases due to the difference in the ocean loading, which is seen for instance in the area around Hudson Bay, Canada, and along the Chinese, Australian, or Argentinian coastlines.

The rotational feedback on linear-momentum balance in glacial isostatic adjustment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinec, Zdeněk; Hagedoorn, Jan

2014-12-01

The influence of changes in surface ice-mass redistribution and associated viscoelastic response of the Earth, known as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), on the Earth's rotational dynamics has long been known. Equally important is the effect of the changes in the rotational dynamics on the viscoelastic deformation of the Earth. This signal, known as the rotational feedback, or more precisely, the rotational feedback on the sea level equation, has been mathematically described by the sea level equation extended for the term that is proportional to perturbation in the centrifugal potential and the second-degree tidal Love number. The perturbation in the centrifugal force due to changes in the Earth's rotational dynamics enters not only into the sea level equation, but also into the conservation law of linear momentum such that the internal viscoelastic force, the perturbation in the gravitational force and the perturbation in the centrifugal force are in balance. Adding the centrifugal-force perturbation to the linear-momentum balance creates an additional rotational feedback on the viscoelastic deformations of the Earth. We term this feedback mechanism, which is studied in this paper, as the rotational feedback on the linear-momentum balance. We extend both the time-domain method for modelling the GIA response of laterally heterogeneous earth models developed by Martinec and the traditional Laplace-domain method for modelling the GIA-induced rotational response to surface loading by considering the rotational feedback on linear-momentum balance. The correctness of the mathematical extensions of the methods is validated numerically by comparing the polar-motion response to the GIA process and the rotationally induced degree 2 and order 1 spherical harmonic component of the surface vertical displacement and gravity field. We present the difference between the case where the rotational feedback on linear-momentum balance is considered against that where it is not. Numerical simulations show that the resulting difference in radial displacement and sea level change between these situations since the Last Glacial Maximum reaches values of ±25 and ±1.8 m, respectively. Furthermore, the surface deformation pattern is modified by up to 10 per cent in areas of former or ongoing glaciation, but by up to 50 per cent at the bottom of the southern Indian ocean. This also results in the movement of coastlines during the last deglaciation to differ between the two cases due to the difference in the ocean loading, which is seen for instance in the area around Hudson Bay, Canada and along the Chinese, Australian or Argentinian coastlines.

A wind comparison study using an ocean general circulation model for the 1997-1998 El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hackert, Eric C.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Murtugudde, Ragu

2001-02-01

Predictions of the 1997-1998 El Niño exhibited a wide range of forecast skill that were dependent, in part, on the wind-driven initial conditions for the ocean. In this study the results of a reduced gravity, primitive equation, sigma coordinate ocean general circulation model are compared and contrasted when forced by several different wind products for the 1997-1998 El Niño/La Niña. The different wind products include atmospheric model winds, satellite wind products, and a subjective analysis of ship and in situ winds. The model results are verified against fields of observed sea level anomalies from TOPEX/Poseidon data, sea surface temperature analyses, and subsurface temperature from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean buoy array. Depending on which validation data type one chooses, different wind products provide the best forcing fields for simulating the observed signal. In general, the model results forced by satellite winds provide the best simulations of the spatial and temporal signal of the observed sea level. This is due to the accuracy of the meridional gradient of the zonal wind stress component that these products provide. Differences in wind forcing also affect subsurface dynamics and thermodynamics. For example, the wind products with the weakest magnitude best reproduce the sea surface temperature (SST) signal in the eastern Pacific. For these products the mixed layer is shallower, and the thermocline is closer to the surface. For such simulations the subsurface thermocline variability influences the variation in SST more than in reality. The products with the greatest wind magnitude have a strong cold bias of >1.5°C in the eastern Pacific because of increased mixing. The satellite winds along with the analysis winds correctly reproduce the depth of the thermocline and the general subsurface temperature structure.

Climate of the past 2000 years in IPCC AR5 (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masson-Delmotte, V.

2013-12-01

Different aspects of the climate of the past 2000 years are covered in several chapters of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including information from paleoclimate archives, changes in the carbon and biogeochemical cycles, changes in sea level, climate model evaluation and detection and attribution. This presentation will summarize the main findings regarding pre-industrial changes in radiative forcings, reconstructed and simulated temperature variations at the hemispheric and regional scales, as well as global sea level for the past 2000 years, in the perspective of the current and earlier interglacial periods.

Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 Artist Concept

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-09-23

An artist concept of the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 Earth satellite. The Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason 2 is an Earth satellite designed to make observations of ocean topography for investigations into sea-level rise and the relationship between ocean circulation and climate change. The satellite also provides data on the forces behind such large-scale climate phenomena as El Niño and La Niña. The mission is a follow-on to the French-American Jason 1 mission, which began collecting data on sea-surface levels in 1992. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA18158

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-01-01

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change. PMID:24043864

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-10-28

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Low-frequency variability of the Atlantic MOC in the eddying regime : the intrinsic component.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregorio, S.; Penduff, T.; Barnier, B.; Molines, J.-M.; Le Sommer, J.

2012-04-01

A 327-year 1/4° global ocean/sea-ice simulation has been produced by the DRAKKAR ocean modeling consortium. This simulation is forced by a repeated seasonal atmospheric forcing but nevertheless exhibits a substantial low-frequency variability (at interannual and longer timescales), which is therefore of intrinsic origin. This nonlinearly-generated intrinsic variability is almost absent from the coarse-resolution (2°) version of this simulation. Comparing the 1/4° simulation with its fully-forced counterpart, Penduff et al. (2011) have shown that the low-frequency variability of local sea-level is largely generated by the ocean itself in eddying areas, rather than directly forced by the atmosphere. Using the same simulations, the present study quantifies the imprint of the intrinsic low-frequency variability on the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) at interannual-to-decadal timescales in the Atlantic. We first compare the intrinsic and atmospherically-forced interannual variances of the Atlantic MOC calculated in geopotential coordinates. This analysis reveals substantial sources of intrinsic MOC variability in the South Atlantic (driven by the Agulhas mesoscale activity according to Biastoch et al. (2008)), but also in the North Atlantic. We extend our investigation to the MOC calculated in isopycnal coordinates, and identify regions in the basin where the water mass transformation exhibits low-frequency intrinsic variability. In this eddy-permitting regime, intrinsic processes are shown to generate about half the total (geopotential and isopycnal) MOC interannual variance in certain key regions of the Atlantic. This intrinsic variability is absent from 2° simulations. Penduff, T., Juza, M., Barnier, B., Zika, J., Dewar, W.K., Treguier, A.-M., Molines, J.-M., Audiffren, N., 2011: Sea-level expression of intrinsic and forced ocean variabilities at interannual time scales. J. Climate, 24, 5652-5670. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00077.1. Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Lutjeharms, J. R. E., 2008: Agulhas leakage dynamics affects decadal variability in Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature, 456, 489-492, doi: 10.1038/nature07426.

Sea level variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Bruce C.

1992-01-01

Published values for the long-term, global mean sea level rise determined from tide gauge records range from about one to three mm per year. The scatter of the estimates appears to arise largely from the use of data from gauges located at convergent tectonic plate boundaries where changes of land elevation give fictitious sea level trends, and the effects of large interdecadal and longer sea level variations on short (less than 50+ years) or sappy records. In addition, virtually all gauges undergo subsidence or uplift due to isostatic rebound from the last deglaciation at a rate comparable to or greater than the secular rise of sea level. Modeling rebound by the ICE-3G model of Tushingham and Peltier (1990) and avoiding tide gauge records in areas of converging tectonic plates produces a highly consistent set of long sea level records. A global set of 21 such stations in nine oceanic regions with an average record length of 76 years during the period 1880-1980 yields the global sea level rise value 1.8 mm/year +/- 0.1. Greenhouse warming scenarios commonly forecast an additional acceleration of global sea level in the next 5 or 6+ decades in the range 0.1-0.2 mm/yr2. Because of the large power at low frequencies in the sea level spectrum, very long tide gauge records (75 years minimum) have been examined for past apparent sea level acceleration. For the 80-year period 1905-1985, 23 essentially complete tide gauge records in 10 geographic groups are available for analysis. These yielded the apparent global acceleration -0.011 (+/- 0.012) mm/yr2. A larger, less uniform set of 37 records in the same 10 groups with 92 years average length covering the 141 years from 1850-1991 gave 0.001 (+/- 0.008) mm/yr2. Thus there is no evidence for an apparent acceleration in the past 100+ years that is significant either statistically, or in comparison to values associated with global warming. Unfortunately, the large interdecadal fluctuations of sea level severely affect estimates of global sea level acceleration for time spans of less than about 50 years. This means that tide gauges alone cannot serve as a reliable leading indicator of climate change in less than many decades. This time required can be significantly reduced if the interdecadal fluctuations of sea level can be understood in terms of their forcing mechanisms, and then removed from the tide gauge records.

Changes and variations in the turning angle of Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukita, J.; Honda, M.; Ishizuka, S.

2012-12-01

The motion of sea ice is under influences of forcing from winds and currents and of sea ice properties. In facing rapidly changing Arctic climate we are interested in whether we observe and quantify changes in sea ice conditions reflected in its velocity field. Theoretical consideration on the freedrift model predicts a change in the sea ice turning angle with respect to the direction of forcing wind in association with thinning sea ice thickness. Possible changes in atmospheric and ocean boundary layer conditions may be reflected in the sea ice turning angle through modification of both atmospheric and oceanic Ekman spirals. With these in mind this study examines statistical properties of the turning angle of the Arctic sea ice and compares them with atmospheric/ice/ocean conditions for the period of 1979-2010 on the basis of IABP buoy data. Preliminary results indicate that over this period the turning angle has varying trends depending on different seasons. We found weakly significant (>90% level) changes in the turning angle from August to October with the maximum trend in October. The direction of trends is counter-clockwise with respect to the geostrophic wind direction, which is consistent with the thinning of sea ice. The interannual variability of the turning angle for this peak season of the reduced sea ice cover is not the same as that of the Arctic SIE. However, in recent years the turning angle appears to covary with the surface air temperature, providing supporting evidence for the relationship between the angle and sea ice thickness. In the presentation we will provide results on the relationships between the turning angle and atmospheric and oceanic variables and further discuss their implications.

The timing of Mediterranean sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level and African monsoon changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, K. M.; Grimm, R.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Marino, G.; Ziegler, M.; Rohling, E. J.

2016-05-01

The Mediterranean basin is sensitive to global sea-level changes and African monsoon variability on orbital timescales. Both of these processes are thought to be important to the deposition of organic-rich sediment layers or 'sapropels' throughout the eastern Mediterranean, yet their relative influences remain ambiguous. A related issue is that an assumed 3-kyr lag between boreal insolation maxima and sapropel mid-points remains to be tested. Here we present new geochemical and ice-volume-corrected planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope records for sapropels S1 (Holocene), S3, S4, and S5 (Marine Isotope Stage 5) in core LC21 from the southern Aegean Sea. The records have a radiometrically constrained chronology that has already been synchronised with the Red Sea relative sea-level record, and this allows detailed examination of the timing of sapropel deposition relative to insolation, sea-level, and African monsoon changes. We find that sapropel onset was near-synchronous with monsoon run-off into the eastern Mediterranean, but that insolation-sapropel/monsoon phasings were not systematic through the last glacial cycle. These latter phasings instead appear to relate to sea-level changes. We propose that persistent meltwater discharges into the North Atlantic (e.g., at glacial terminations) modified the timing of sapropel deposition by delaying the timing of peak African monsoon run-off. These observations may reconcile apparent model-data offsets with respect to the orbital pacing of the African monsoon. Our observations also imply that the previous assumption of a systematic 3-kyr lag between insolation maxima and sapropel midpoints may lead to overestimated insolation-sapropel phasings. Finally, we surmise that both sea-level rise and monsoon run-off contributed to surface-water buoyancy changes at times of sapropel deposition, and their relative influences differed per sapropel case, depending on their magnitudes. Sea-level rise was clearly important for sapropel S1, whereas monsoon forcing was more important for sapropels S3, S4, and S5.

The role of local and external factors in determining the interannual sea level variability of the Adriatic and Black Seas during the 20th century.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scarascia, Luca; Lionello, Piero

2016-04-01

The Adriatic Sea and the Black Sea are two semienclosed basins connected to the Mediterranean Sea by the Otranto and the Bosporus straits, respectively. This work aims to reconstruction the sea level for both basins in the 20th century and to investigate main sources of interannual variability. Using 7 tide gauge timeseries located along the Adriatic coast and 5 along the Black Sea coast, provided by the PSMSL (Permanent service of mean sea level), a seamless sea level timeseries (1900-2009) has been obtained for each basin on the basis of statistical procedure involving PCA and Least Square Method. The comparison with satellite data in the period 1993 - 2009 confirms that these are reliable representations of the observed sea level for the whole basin, showing a great agreement with a correlation value of 0.87 and 0.72 for Adriatic and Black Sea respectively. The sea level has been decomposed in various contributions in order to analyze the role of the factors responsible for its interannual variability. The annual cycles of the local effect of pressure (inverse barometer effect IB), of the steric effect due to temperature and salinity variation and of the wind effect have been computed. The largest contribute for the Adriatic Sea is due to the wind, whilst inverse barometer effect plays a minor role and the steric effect seems to be almost negligible. For the Black Sea, on the contrary, wind effect is negligible, and the largest source of variability is due to the Danube river, which is estimated from the available discharge data of Sulina (one of the exits of the Danube delta. Steric and IB effects play both a minor role in this basin. A linear regression model, built considering as predictor the SLP gradient identified at large scale after having carried out the correlation analysis, is capable to explain a further percentage of variability (about 20-25%) of the sea level after subtracting all the factors considered above. Finally, residual sea levels show a positive correlation (0.42 about) revealing the likely action of a common boundary forcing associated to the mass exchange with Mediterranean sea. The present analysis is still unable to explain a non-negligible fraction of interannual variability of sea level, in particular for Black Sea. This is likely to a substantial extent due to uncertainties of hydrographic data caused by their irregular distribution in space and time and on the lack of regular records of past river discharge. This study is part of the activities of RISES-AM project (FP7-EU-603396).

Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats.

PubMed

Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

2016-08-01

Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming.

A comparison of remote vs. local influence of El Niño on the coastal circulation of the northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermann, Albert J.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Haidvogel, Dale B.; Dobbins, Elizabeth L.

2009-12-01

A set of spatially nested circulation models is used to explore interannual change in the northeast Pacific (NEP) during 1997-2002, and remote vs. local influence of the 1997-1998 El Niño on this region. Our nested set is based on the primitive equations of motion, and includes a basin-scale model of the north Pacific at ˜40-km resolution (NPac), and a regional model of the Northeast Pacific at ˜10-km resolution. The NEP model spans an area from Baja California through the Bering Sea, from the coast to ˜2000-km offshore. In this context, "remote influence" refers to effects driven by changes in ocean velocity and temperature outside of the NEP domain; "local influence" refers to direct forcing by winds and runoff within the NEP domain. A base run of this model using hindcast winds and runoff for 1996-2002 replicates the dominant spatial modes of sea-surface height anomalies from satellite data, and coastal sea level from tide gauges. We have performed a series of sensitivity runs with the NEP model for 1997-1998, which analyze the response of coastal sea level to: (1) hindcast winds and coastal runoff, as compared to their monthly climatologies and (2) hindcast boundary conditions (from the NPac model), as compared to their monthly climatologies. Results indicate penetration of sea-surface height (SSH) from the basin-scale model into the NEP domain (e.g., remote influence), with propagation as coastal trapped waves from Baja up through Alaska. Most of the coastal sea-level anomaly off Alaska in El Niño years appears due to direct forcing by local winds and runoff (local influence), and such anomalies are much stronger than those produced off California. We quantify these effects as a function of distance along the coastline, and consider how they might impact the coastal ecosystems of the NEP.

Design and skill assessment of an Operational Forecasting System for currents and sea level variability to the Santos Estuarine System - Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godoi Rezende Costa, C.; Castro, B. M.; Blumberg, A. F.; Leite, J. R. B., Sr.

2017-12-01

Santos City is subject to an average of 12 storm tide events per year. Such events bring coastal flooding able to threat human life and damage coastal infrastructure. Severe events have forced the interruption of ferry boat services and ship traffic through Santos Harbor, causing great impacts to Santos Port, the largest in South America, activities. Several studies have focused on the hydrodynamics of storm tide events but only a few of those studies have pursued an operational initiative to predict short term (< 3 days) sea level variability. The goals of this study are (i) to describe the design of an operational forecasting system built to predict sea surface elevation and currents in the Santos Estuarine System and (ii) to evaluate model performance in simulating observed sea surface elevation. The Santos Operational Forecasting System (SOFS) hydrodynamic module is based on the Stevens Institute Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM). The fully automated SOFS is designed to provide up to 71 h forecast of sea surface elevations and currents every day. The system automatically collects results from global models to run the SOFS nested into another sECOM based model for the South Brazil Bight (SBB). Global forecasting results used to force both models come from Mercator Ocean, released by Copernicus Marine Service, and from the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) stablished by the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies (with Portuguese acronym CPTEC). The complete routines task take about 8 hours of run time to finish. SOFS was able to hindcast a severe storm tide event that took place in Santos on August 21-22, 2016. Comparisons with observed sea level provided skills of 0.92 and maximum root mean square errors of 25 cm. The good agreement with observed data shows the potential of the designed system to predict storm tides and to support both human and assets protection.

Marine Corps Vision & Strategy 2025

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

integral part of our history as a Corps. In the South Pacific after Pearl Harbor, in Korea after the communist invasion in 1950, in the jungle outposts...we have experience integrating many organizations with different levels of capability into an effective team. In the future, Marine Corps forces may...and foremost a disciplined warrior. Expeditionary Naval Force. Marines are “soldiers of the sea,” an integral part of the naval Services — lean

KSC-08pd1290

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container is being moved inside the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1292

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container has been moved inside the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1064

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The aircraft carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft arrives at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1284

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the truck carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite arrives at the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1291

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container is being moved inside the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1285

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the truck carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite arrives at the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.; Nowicki, S.; Fastook, J. L.; Frieler, K.; Greve, R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Martin, M. A.; Meinshausen, M.; Mengel, M.; Payne, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Sato, T.; Timmermann, R.; Wang, W. L.; Bindschadler, R. A.

2014-08-01

The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02-0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0-0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01-0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.17 m; 90% range: 0.02-0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 0.07-0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04-0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.

Interannual Variability of Sea Level in Tropical Pacific during 1993-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Greatbatch, R. J.; Claus, M.

2016-12-01

More than 40 years ago, sea level variability in the tropical Pacific was being studied using linear shallow water models driven by observed estimates of the surface wind stress. At that time, the only available sea level data was from the sparse tide gauge record. However, with the advent of satellite data, there has been a revolution in the available data coverage for sea level. Here, a linear model, consisting of the first five baroclinic normal modes, and driven by ERA-Interim monthly wind stress anomalies, is used to investigate interannual variability in tropical Pacific sea level as seen in satellite altimeter data. The model output is fitted to the altimeter data along the equator, in order to derive the vertical profile for the wind forcing, and showing that a signature from modes higher than mode six cannot be extracted from the altimeter data. It is shown that the model has considerable skill at capturing interannual sea level variability both on and off the equator. The correlation between modelled and satellite-derived sea level data exceeds 0.8 over a wide range of longitudes along the equator and readily captures the observed ENSO events. Overall, the combination of the first, second and third and fifth modes can provide a robust estimate of the interannual sea level variability, the second mode being the most dominant. A remarkable feature of both the model and the altimeter data is the presence of a pivot point in the western Pacific on the equator. We show that the westward displacement of the pivot point from the centre of the basin is partly a signature of the recharge/discharge mechanism but is also strongly influenced by the fact that most of the wind stress variance along the equator is found in the western part of the basin. We also show that the Sverdrup transport plays no role in the recharge/discharge mechanism in our model.

Sea-level and solid-Earth deformation feedbacks in ice sheet modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, Hannes; Sasgen, Ingo; Klemann, Volker; Thoma, Malte; Grosfeld, Klaus; Martinec, Zdeněk

2014-05-01

The interactions of ice sheets with the sea level and the solid Earth are important factors for the stability of the ice shelves and the tributary inland ice (e.g. Thomas and Bentley, 1978; Gomez et al, 2012). First, changes in ice extent and ice thickness induce viscoelastic deformation of the Earth surface and Earth's gravity field. In turn, global and local changes in sea level and bathymetry affect the grounding line and, subsequently, alter the ice dynamic behaviour. Here, we investigate these feedbacks for a synthetic ice sheet configuration as well as for the Antarctic ice sheet using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet and shelf model, coupled to a viscoelastic solid-Earth and gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model. The respective ice sheet undergoes a forcing from rising sea level, warming ocean, and/or changing surface mass balance. The coupling is realized by exchanging ice thickness, Earth surface deformation and sea level periodically. We apply several sets of viscoelastic Earth parameters to our coupled model, e.g. simulating a low-viscous upper mantle present at the Antarctic Peninsula (Ivins et al., 2011). Special focus of our study lies on the evolution of Earth surface deformation and local sea level changes, as well as on the accompanying grounding line evolution. N. Gomez, D. Pollard, J. X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P. U. Clark 2012. Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet-sea level model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F01013, doi:10.1029/2011JF002128. E. R. Ivins, M. M. Watkins, D.-N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, and A. Rülke 2011. On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02403, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007607 R. H. Thomas and C. R. Bentley 1978. A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Research, 10 (2), pages 150-170, doi: 10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4.

Surface wave effects in the NEMO ocean model: Forced and coupled experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Mogensen, Kristian; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.

2015-04-01

The NEMO general circulation ocean model is extended to incorporate three physical processes related to ocean surface waves, namely the surface stress (modified by growth and dissipation of the oceanic wavefield), the turbulent kinetic energy flux from breaking waves, and the Stokes-Coriolis force. Experiments are done with NEMO in ocean-only (forced) mode and coupled to the ECMWF atmospheric and wave models. Ocean-only integrations are forced with fields from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. All three effects are noticeable in the extratropics, but the sea-state-dependent turbulent kinetic energy flux yields by far the largest difference. This is partly because the control run has too vigorous deep mixing due to an empirical mixing term in NEMO. We investigate the relation between this ad hoc mixing and Langmuir turbulence and find that it is much more effective than the Langmuir parameterization used in NEMO. The biases in sea surface temperature as well as subsurface temperature are reduced, and the total ocean heat content exhibits a trend closer to that observed in a recent ocean reanalysis (ORAS4) when wave effects are included. Seasonal integrations of the coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model consisting of NEMO, the wave model ECWAM, and the atmospheric model of ECMWF similarly show that the sea surface temperature biases are greatly reduced when the mixing is controlled by the sea state and properly weighted by the thickness of the uppermost level of the ocean model. These wave-related physical processes were recently implemented in the operational coupled ensemble forecast system of ECMWF.

600 kyr of Hydrothermal Activity on the Cleft Segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, J. L.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Langmuir, C. H.; Costa, K.; McManus, J. F.; Katz, R. F.; Huybers, P. J.; Winckler, G.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

Pressure fluctuations caused by glacially driven variations in sea level may modulate magmatic and hydrothermal output at submarine volcanic centers, with falling sea level driving increased volcanic activity. In turn, glacially paced changes in submarine volcanism could induce globally synchronous variations in the delivery of bioavailable iron and CO2 from mid-ocean ridges and thus provide solid-Earth feedbacks into the climate system. While evaluation of submarine volcanic output on orbital-timescales is technically challenging, near-ridge sediment cores hosting hydrothermal plume precipitates provide continuous, spatially integrated, and datable records to investigate the long-term behavior of hydrothermal systems. We will present new sedimentary records of hydrothermal variability spanning the past 600 kyr on the Cleft Segment of the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the Northeast Pacific. As an intermediate spreading-rate ridge, the Juan de Fuca Ridge is hypothesized to be particularly sensitive to sea level forcing at the Milankovitch frequencies of Pleistocene glacial cycles. Thus, the new records can be used to examine the connection between sea level and hydrothermal activity over multiple glacial cycles. Hydrothermal input is determined from iron and copper, with a titanium-based correction for lithogenic contributions. Sedimentary fluxes are then constrained using excess thorium-230 and extraterrestrial helium-3 as constant flux proxies. Preliminary results indicate 10-fold changes in hydrothermal iron and copper fluxes over the past 600 kyr and suggest a quasiperiodic variability in hydrothermal deposition on 100 to 120 kyr cycles. Comparison of the Juan de Fuca record with model predictions for an intermediate spreading ridge forced by Pleistocene glacial cycles finds frequent coincidence between predicted positive anomalies in magmatic output and observed peaks in hydrothermal deposition. This work encourages the continued exploration of the relationship between glacial cycles and submarine volcanic activity.

Quantifying Uncertainty in the Greenland Surface Mass Balance Elevation Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, T.

2015-12-01

As the shape of the Greenland ice sheet responds to changes in surface mass balance (SMB) and dynamics, it affects the surface mass balance through the atmospheric lapse rate and by altering atmospheric circulation patterns. Positive degree day models include simplified representations of this feedback, but it is difficult to simulate with state-of-the-art models because it requires coupling of regional climate models with dynamical ice sheet models, which is technically challenging. This difficulty, along with the high computational expense of regional climate models, also drastically limits opportunities for exploring the impact of modelling uncertainties on sea level projections. We present a parameterisation of the SMB-elevation feedback in the MAR regional climate model that provides a far easier and quicker estimate than atmosphere-ice sheet model coupling, which can be used with any ice sheet model. This allows us to use ensembles of different parameter values and ice sheet models to assess the effect of uncertainty in the feedback and ice sheet model structure on future sea level projections. We take a Bayesian approach to uncertainty in the feedback parameterisation, scoring the results from multiple possible "SMB lapse rates" according to how well they reproduce a MAR simulation with altered ice sheet topography. We test the impact of the resulting parameterisation on sea level projections using five ice sheet models forced by MAR (in turned forced by two different global climate models) under the emissions scenario A1B. The estimated additional sea level contribution due to the SMB-elevation feedback is 4.3% at 2100 (95% credibility interval 1.8-6.9%), and 9.6% at 2200 (3.6-16.0%).

On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dawei; Zhang, Rong; Knutson, Thomas R.

2017-04-01

This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979.

Mechanisms of interannual- to decadal-scale winter Labrador Sea ice variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Close, S.; Herbaut, C.; Houssais, M.-N.; Blaizot, A.-C.

2017-12-01

The variability of the winter sea ice cover of the Labrador Sea region and its links to atmospheric and oceanic forcing are investigated using observational data, a coupled ocean-sea ice model and a fully-coupled model simulation drawn from the CMIP5 archive. A consistent series of mechanisms associated with high sea ice cover are found amongst the various data sets. The highest values of sea ice area occur when the northern Labrador Sea is ice covered. This region is found to be primarily thermodynamically forced, contrasting with the dominance of mechanical forcing along the eastern coast of Baffin Island and Labrador, and the growth of sea ice is associated with anomalously fresh local ocean surface conditions. Positive fresh water anomalies are found to propagate to the region from a source area off the southeast Greenland coast with a 1 month transit time. These anomalies are associated with sea ice melt, driven by the enhanced offshore transport of sea ice in the source region, and its subsequent westward transport in the Irminger Current system. By combining sea ice transport through the Denmark Strait in the preceding autumn with the Greenland Blocking Index and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index, strong correlation with the Labrador Sea ice area of the following winter is obtained. This relationship represents a dependence on the availability of sea ice to be melted in the source region, the necessary atmospheric forcing to transport this offshore, and a further multidecadal-scale link with the large-scale sea surface temperature conditions.

Comparative study of Arctic sea ice response from NEMO-LIM3 to two different atmospheric forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massonnet, Francois; Fichefet, Thierry; Goosse, Hugues; Mathiot, Pierre; König Beatty, Christof; Vancoppenolle, Martin

2010-05-01

Sea ice plays a key role within the climate system as it is, e.g., an efficient barrier to transfers of heat, mass and momentum between atmosphere and ocean. In order to simulate the observed sea ice state, global Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) must benefit from good quality atmospheric forcings. NEMO-LIM3 is one of those OGCMs. This model results from the coupling of the sea ice model LIM3 with the ocean model OPA. So far, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset (2-m atmospheric temperatures and 10-m wind speeds) has been used jointly with monthly climatologies of relative humidity, cloudiness and precipitation to set up and calibrate NEMO-LIM3. Clear biases in model outputs have been tentatively attributed to this forcing. Here, we investigate the consequences of using the ERA-40-based DFS4 forcing on an ORCA1 configuration (1° resolution), with focus on the Arctic sea ice. Using an adequate metric, we measure the discrepancies between the simulations resulting from the respective forcings. A particular attention is paid to the sea ice features along Siberia at the beginning of the 80s, as previous NEMO-LIM3 runs with the NCEP/NCAR forcing exhibit a significant overestimation of ice extent in this area during this time period.

Regional hydroclimate response to freshwater fluxes from the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet during the Last Termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macdonald, F. A.; Schmitz, M. D.; Condon, D. J.; Zhu, M.; Rooney, A. D.; Brandon, A. D.

2014-12-01

Resolving the effects of freshwater forcing during the last glacial-interglacial transition, the Last Termination, is critical to our comprehension of rapid climate change. In particular, the role of Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) and freshwater from the eastern seaboard of the North Atlantic has been entirely disregarded in the context of the abrupt regional hydroclimate shifts that characterized this period. Here we infer freshwater input variations from the FIS to the Nordic Seas based on two accurately dated hydroclimate reconstructions from lake sediment records from Southern Sweden and one SST reconstruction from the Nordic Seas. The records indicate a number of abrupt freshwater discharges into the Nordic Seas at the start of the Bølling interstadial and during the Allerød interstadial. We observe that these intervals of enhanced FIS freshwater outflow correspond to different modalities of hydroclimate regime shifts in Greenland. Using a set of climate model simulations, we show that the dominant Greenland hydroclimate state can be influenced by the degree of FIS freshwater recirculation in the Nordic Seas, which redirects the excess of sea ice partitioned into the Barents Sea towards the eastern Greenland Current. The tradeoff between buildup and recirculation of sea ice in the Nordic Seas generate large-scale sea-level pressure anomalies that may explain the sign and magnitude of the isotopic and temperature changes inferred from Greenland and North European reconstructions. We conclude that air-sea interactions in the North Atlantic are more sensitive to Fennoscandian freshwater forcing than previously thought. These results could help to solve the problematic relationship between origin, timing and magnitude of freshwater perturbations and abrupt deglacial changes in North Atlantic Ocean circulation in numerical simulations.

Geomorphic interaction among climate, sea levels and karst groundwater: the Taranto area (South of Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spilotro, Giuseppe; Fidelibus, Maria Dolores; Argentiero, Ilenia; Pellicani, Roberta; Parisi, Alessandro; Di Modugno, Antonella

2017-04-01

The area of Taranto (Apulia region, Italy) has an extraordinary environmental and landscape value, which derives from its specific geological, geomorphological and hydrogeological conditions: they represent the effect of a complex mechanism of interaction in the geological time among the sea, its level variations and stands driven by climate changes, karst groundwater and the geo lithological frame. The knowledge of this interaction spans over two very different time duration: the first is subsequent to the sedimentary pleistocenic deposition and diagenesis and lasts until the late Holocene; the second spans over a more limited time durations, from the LIA until today, and its knowledge is mainly based on hystorical topographic records and reports. The general geological and stratigraphical setting is represented by marine deposits, which fill the Bradanic Trough, shaped in the upper part as marine terraces bordering the W and SW side of the Murgian carbonate platform (Apulia, South of Italy) as well. This latter constitutes an important karst hydro-structure, fed by precipitation, bordered on the opposite side of the Bradanic Trough by the Adriatic Sea. Fresh groundwater hosted in the huge coastal aquifer freely flows towards the Adriatic coast, while on the opposite W-NW side, the continuous confinement by the impermeable filling of the trough, forces the underground drainage of the aquifer towards the Ionian Sea just in the Taranto area. The overall flow rate of the groundwater through submarine and subaerial coastal springs, according to the current sea level, is significant and currently estimated in about 18 m3/sec. Climate changes have forced over geological time, but also in shorter periods, sea level changes and stands, consequently correlated to groundwater levels. This allowed genesis of selected karst levels, of regional extension, both at the surface or underground, which arise as typical forms, namely polje and karst plane inland, terraces on the sea front, doline and caves near surface and underground. In the area of Taranto the changes in sea level resulted in active or fossil aquifer discharge points; the outflow areas of the aquifer into the sea are associated with specific morphologies distributed at various elevations in form of numerous elliptical sea basins or salt pan at higher elevations. A thorough geological study, accompanied by a significant number of stratigraphic and hydrogeological data, some datations, high resolution DTMs and bathymetric surveys allowed an excellent reconstruction of the geomorphological processes in the long (geological time span) term. Historical investigations allowed a significant recognition of such processes in more recent ages (starting from the Little Ice Age), reported by different levels of hydrological activities in these areas. More generally, it is possible to recognize in the study area the constraining morphogenetic power of groundwater outflow, which reveals in very characteristic morphologies, erosional basins and salt pans in the final evolution, on carbonate mainland and in the overlying marine terraces, at the elevations of the different sea level standstills. Thus, a narrow area embraces all kind of morphologies, whether those related to a still active outflow, or those in the final evolution or fossil condition, in a range of elevations varying between 60 m ASL and 40 m BSL according present knowledges.

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves.

PubMed

Pritchard, H D; Ligtenberg, S R M; Fricker, H A; Vaughan, D G; van den Broeke, M R; Padman, L

2012-04-25

Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

Nitrogen Chemistry in Sea Level Air Following Large Radiation Doses.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-15

majur reactions NO + 0 + M +N0 2 + M (9) ’.o, NO+0 3 +N 2 +0 2 (1) NO + HO2 + NO2 + OH (11) 0 + NO2 NO + U 2 (12) H + NO2 + No + OOH (13) NO + OH...8217 ’, ,-7- 0 DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY DEPARTMENT OF THE AIR FORCE (Continued) 0 Joint Cruise Missiles Project...Ofc Air Force Space Technology Ctr ATTN: JCMG-707 ATTN: YH Naval Air Systems Command Air Force !-!ight Aeronautical Lab/AAAD ATTN: PMA 271 ATjN: W

Multi-decadal trend and space-time variability of sea level over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s: impact of decadal climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Stammer, D.; Meehl, G. A.; Hu, A.; Sienz, F.

2016-12-01

Sea level varies on decadal and multi-decadal timescales over the Indian Ocean. The variations are not spatially uniform, and can deviate considerably from the global mean sea level rise (SLR) due to various geophysical processes. One of these processes is the change of ocean circulation, which can be partly attributed to natural internal modes of climate variability. Over the Indian Ocean, the most influential climate modes on decadal and multi-decadal timescales are the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and decadal variability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD). Here, we first analyze observational datasets to investigate the impacts of IPO and IOD on spatial patterns of decadal and interdecadal (hereafter decal) sea level variability & multi-decadal trend over the Indian Ocean since the 1950s, using a new statistical approach of Bayesian Dynamical Linear regression Model (DLM). The Bayesian DLM overcomes the limitation of "time-constant (static)" regression coefficients in conventional multiple linear regression model, by allowing the coefficients to vary with time and therefore measuring "time-evolving (dynamical)" relationship between climate modes and sea level. For the multi-decadal sea level trend since the 1950s, our results show that climate modes and non-climate modes (the part that cannot be explained by climate modes) have comparable contributions in magnitudes but with different spatial patterns, with each dominating different regions of the Indian Ocean. For decadal variability, climate modes are the major contributors for sea level variations over most region of the tropical Indian Ocean. The relative importance of IPO and decadal variability of IOD, however, varies spatially. For example, while IOD decadal variability dominates IPO in the eastern equatorial basin (85E-100E, 5S-5N), IPO dominates IOD in causing sea level variations in the tropical southwest Indian Ocean (45E-65E, 12S-2S). To help decipher the possible contribution of external forcing to the multi-decadal sea level trend and decadal variability, we also analyze the model outputs from NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Experiments, and compare the results with our observational analyses.

The Role of Air-sea Coupling in the Response of Climate Extremes to Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, S.

2017-12-01

Air-sea interactions dominate the climate of surrounding regions and thus also modulate the climate response to local and remote aerosol forcings. To clearly isolate the role of air-sea coupling in the climate response to aerosols, we conduct experiments with a full complexity atmosphere model that is coupled to a series of ocean models progressively increasing in complexity. The ocean models range from a data ocean model with prescribed SSTs, to a slab ocean model that only allows thermodynamic interactions, to a full dynamic ocean model. In a preliminary study, we have conducted single forcing experiments with black carbon aerosols in an atmosphere GCM coupled to a data ocean model and a slab ocean model. We find that while black carbon aerosols can intensify mean and extreme summer monsoonal precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, air-sea coupling can dramatically modulate this response. Black carbon aerosols in the vicinity of the Arabian Sea result in an increase of sea surface temperatures there in the slab ocean model, which intensify the low-level Somali Jet. The associated increase in moisture transport into Western India enhances the mean as well as extreme precipitation. In prescribed SST experiments, where SSTs are not allowed to respond BC aerosols, the response is muted. We will present results from a hierarchy of GCM simulations that investigate the role of air-sea coupling in the climate response to aerosols in more detail.

Ground air: A first approximation of the Earth's second largest reservoir of carbon dioxide gas.

PubMed

Baldini, James U L; Bertram, Rachel A; Ridley, Harriet E

2018-03-01

It is becoming increasingly clear that a substantial reservoir of carbon exists in the unsaturated zone of aquifers, though the total size of this reservoir on a global scale remains unquantified. Here we provide the first broad estimate of the amount of carbon dioxide gas found in this terrestrial reservoir. We calculate that between 2 and 53 PgC exists as gaseous CO 2 in aquifers worldwide, generated by the slow microbial oxidation of organic particles transported into aquifers by percolating groundwater. Importantly, this carbon reservoir is in the form of CO 2 gas, and is therefore transferable to the Earth's atmosphere without any phase change. On a coarse scale, water table depths are partially controlled by local sea level; sea level lowering therefore allows slow carbon sequestration into the reservoir and sea level increases force rapid CO 2 outgassing from this reservoir. High-resolution cave air pCO 2 data demonstrate that sea level variability does affect CO 2 outgassing rates from the unsaturated zone, and that the CO 2 outgassing due to sea level rise currently occurs on daily (tidal) timescales. We suggest that global mean water table depth must modulate the global unsaturated zone volume and the size of this carbon reservoir, potentially affecting atmospheric CO 2 on geological timescales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inferring tidal wetland stability from channel sediment fluxes: observations and a conceptual model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Nidzieko, Nicholas J.; Kirwan, Matthew L.

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic and climatic forces have modified the geomorphology of tidal wetlands over a range of timescales. Changes in land use, sediment supply, river flow, storminess, and sea level alter the layout of tidal channels, intertidal flats, and marsh plains; these elements define wetland complexes. Diagnostically, measurements of net sediment fluxes through tidal channels are high-temporal resolution, spatially integrated quantities that indicate (1) whether a complex is stable over seasonal timescales and (2) what mechanisms are leading to that state. We estimated sediment fluxes through tidal channels draining wetland complexes on the Blackwater and Transquaking Rivers, Maryland, USA. While the Blackwater complex has experienced decades of degradation and been largely converted to open water, the Transquaking complex has persisted as an expansive, vegetated marsh. The measured net export at the Blackwater complex (1.0 kg/s or 0.56 kg/m2/yr over the landward marsh area) was caused by northwesterly winds, which exported water and sediment on the subtidal timescale; tidally forced net fluxes were weak and precluded landward transport of suspended sediment from potential seaward sources. Though wind forcing also exported sediment at the Transquaking complex, strong tidal forcing and proximity to a turbidity maximum led to an import of sediment (0.031 kg/s or 0.70 kg/m2/yr). This resulted in a spatially averaged accretion of 3.9 mm/yr, equaling the regional relative sea level rise. Our results suggest that in areas where seaward sediment supply is dominant, seaward wetlands may be more capable of withstanding sea level rise over the short term than landward wetlands. We propose a conceptual model to determine a complex's tendency toward stability or instability based on sediment source, wetland channel location, and transport mechanisms. Wetlands with a reliable portfolio of sources and transport mechanisms appear better suited to offset natural and anthropogenic loss.

A global analysis of erosion of sandy beaches and sea-level rise: An application of DIVA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinkel, Jochen; Nicholls, Robert J.; Tol, Richard S. J.; Wang, Zheng B.; Hamilton, Jacqueline M.; Boot, Gerben; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; McFadden, Loraine; Ganopolski, Andrey; Klein, Richard J. T.

2013-12-01

This paper presents a first assessment of the global effects of climate-induced sea-level rise on the erosion of sandy beaches, and its consequent impacts in the form of land loss and forced migration of people. We consider direct erosion on open sandy coasts and indirect erosion near selected tidal inlets and estuaries, using six global mean sea-level scenarios (in the range of 0.2-0.8 m) and six SRES socio-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. Impacts are assessed both without and with adaptation in the form of shore and beach nourishment, based on cost-benefit analysis that includes the benefits of maintaining sandy beaches for tourism. Without nourishment, global land loss would amount to about 6000-17,000 km2 during the 21st century, leading to 1.6-5.3 million people being forced to migrate and migration costs of US 300-1000 billion (not discounted). Optimal beach and shore nourishment would cost about US 65-220 billion (not discounted) during the 21st century and would reduce land loss by 8-14%, forced migration by 56-68% and the cost of forced migration by 77-84% (not discounted). The global share of erodible coast that is nourished increases from about 4% in 2000 to 18-33% in 2100, with beach nourishment being 3-4 times more frequent than shore nourishment, reflecting the importance of tourism benefits. In absolute terms, with or without nourishment, large countries with long shorelines appear to have the largest costs, but in relative terms, small island states appear most impacted by erosion. Considerable uncertainty remains due to the limited availability of basic coastal geomorphological data and models on a global scale. Future work should also further explore the effects of beach tourism, including considering sub-national distributions of beach tourists.

The Influence of the Terrestrial Reference Frame on Studies of Sea Level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nerem, R. S.; Bar-Sever, Y. E.; Haines, B. J.; Desai, S.; Heflin, M. B.

2015-12-01

The terrestrial reference frame (TRF) provides the foundation for the accurate monitoring of sea level using both ground-based (tide gauges) and space-based (satellite altimetry) techniques. For the latter, tide gauges are also used to monitor drifts in the satellite instruments over time. The accuracy of the terrestrial reference frame (TRF) is thus a critical component for both types of sea level measurements. The TRF is central to the formation of geocentric sea-surface height (SSH) measurements from satellite altimeter data. The computed satellite orbits are linked to a particular TRF via the assumed locations of the ground-based tracking systems. The manner in which TRF errors are expressed in the orbit solution (and thus SSH) is not straightforward, and depends on the models of the forces underlying the satellite's motion. We discuss this relationship, and provide examples of the systematic TRF-induced errors in the altimeter derived sea-level record. The TRF is also crucial to the interpretation of tide-gauge measurements, as it enables the separation of vertical land motion from volumetric changes in the water level. TRF errors affect tide gauge measurements through GNSS estimates of the vertical land motion at each tide gauge. This talk will discuss the current accuracy of the TRF and how errors in the TRF impact both satellite altimeter and tide gauge sea level measurements. We will also discuss simulations of how the proposed Geodetic Reference Antenna in SPace (GRASP) satellite mission could reduce these errors and revolutionize how reference frames are computed in general.

Corals record long-term Leeuwin current variability including Ningaloo Niño/Niña since 1795

PubMed Central

Zinke, J.; Rountrey, A.; Feng, M.; Xie, S.-P.; Dissard, D.; Rankenburg, K.; Lough, J.M.; McCulloch, M.T.

2014-01-01

Variability of the Leeuwin current (LC) off Western Australia is a footprint of interannual and decadal climate variations in the tropical Indo-Pacific. La Niña events often result in a strengthened LC, high coastal sea levels and unusually warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs), termed Ningaloo Niño. The rarity of such extreme events and the response of the southeastern Indian Ocean to regional and remote climate forcing are poorly understood owing to the lack of long-term records. Here we use well-replicated coral SST records from within the path of the LC, together with a reconstruction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to hindcast historical SST and LC strength from 1795 to 2010. We show that interannual and decadal variations in SST and LC strength characterized the past 215 years and that the most extreme sea level and SST anomalies occurred post 1980. These recent events were unprecedented in severity and are likely aided by accelerated global ocean warming and sea-level rise. PMID:24686736

Low-frequency western Pacific Ocean sea level and circulation changes due to the connectivity of the Philippine Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Wei; Qiu, Bo; Du, Yan

2013-12-01

Interannual-to-decadal sea level and circulation changes associated with the oceanic connectivity around the Philippine Archipelago are studied using satellite altimeter sea surface height (SSH) data and a reduced gravity ocean model. SSHs in the tropical North Pacific, the Sulu Sea and the eastern South China Sea (ESCS) display very similar low-frequency oscillations that are highly correlated with El Niño and Southern Oscillation. Model experiments reveal that these variations are mainly forced by the low-frequency winds over the North Pacific tropical gyre and affected little by the winds over the marginal seas and the North Pacific subtropical gyre. The wind-driven baroclinic Rossby waves impinge on the eastern Philippine coast and excite coastal Kelvin waves, conveying the SSH signals through the Sibutu Passage-Mindoro Strait pathway into the Sulu Sea and the ESCS. Closures of the Luzon Strait, Karimata Strait, and ITF passages have little impacts on the low-frequency sea level changes in the Sulu Sea and the ESCS. The oceanic pathway west of the Philippine Archipelago modulates the western boundary current system in the tropical North Pacific. Opening of this pathway weakens the time-varying amplitudes of the North Equatorial Current bifurcation latitude and Kuroshio transport. Changes of the amplitudes can be explained by the conceptual framework of island rule that allows for baroclinic adjustment. Although it fails to capture the interannual changes in the strongly nonlinear Mindanao Current, the time-dependent island rule is nevertheless helpful in clarifying the role of the archipelago in regulating its multidecadal variations.

The ICESat/GLAS Instrument Operations Report. Volume 4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jester, Peggy L.

2012-01-01

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) was the primary instrument aboard the first ICESat spacecraft. ICESat's primary objectives are to determine the mass balance of the polar ice sheets and their contributions to global sea level change, and to obtain essential data for prediction of future changes in ice volume and sea-level. ICESat launched successfully from Vandenberg Air Force Base on January 12, 2003 23:45 UT. The ICESat science mission began in February 2003 and ended on October 11, 2009. De-orbit of the spacecraft occurred on August 30, 2010. This document focusses on the GLAS instrument operations during the ICESat mission. This document will not discuss science results.

Magmatic pulse driven by sea-level changes associated with the Messinian salinity crisis

PubMed Central

Sternai, Pietro; Caricchi, Luca; Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel; Jolivet, Laurent; Sheldrake, Tom E.; Castelltort, Sébastien

2017-01-01

Between 5 and 6 million years ago, during the so-called Messinian salinity crisis, the Mediterranean basin became a giant salt repository. The possibility of abrupt and kilometre-scale sea-level changes during this extreme event is debated. Messinian evaporites could signify either deep- or shallow-marine deposits, and ubiquitous erosional surfaces could indicate either subaerial or submarine features. Significant and fast reductions in sea level unload the lithosphere, which can increase the production and eruption of magma. Here we calculate variations in surface load associated with the Messinian salinity crisis and compile the available time constraints for pan-Mediterranean magmatism. We show that scenarios involving a kilometre-scale drawdown of sea level imply a phase of net overall lithospheric unloading at a time that appears synchronous with a magmatic pulse from the pan-Mediterranean igneous provinces. We verify the viability of a mechanistic link between unloading and magmatism using numerical modelling of decompression partial mantle melting and dike formation in response to surface load variations. We conclude that the Mediterranean magmatic record provides an independent validation of the controversial kilometre-scale evaporative drawdown and sheds new light on the sensitivity of magmatic systems to the surface forcing. PMID:29081834

Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Erlandson, Jon M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Rick, Torben C.

2015-03-01

Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80-85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Erlandson, Jon M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Rick, Torben C.

2015-01-01

Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80–85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

Isostasy as a Driver of Paleo Retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, A.; Tabone, I.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.

2016-12-01

During glacial times, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) extended onto the continental shelf, and thus was much more directly affected by changing ocean temperatures through basal melt of the marine ice margins than it is today. The larger glacial ice sheet also induced lithospheric depression of several hundred meters in regions that are near sea level today. As the ice sheet retreated inland under interglacial climatic forcing, the regions significantly affected by local isostatic changes in elevation were exposed to much higher basal melt rates than they would have been given the present-day topography. Here we explore this effect using a hybrid ice sheet model that represents both grounded and floating ice, as well as local isostatic effects, and is driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature anomalies. We find that when transient oceanic forcing is included in the model, isostasy plays an important role in allowing oceanic melting to drive GrIS retreat in some regions. During the last interglacial, for example, this effect can account for a significant additional sea-level contribution, as well as an increase in the rate of sea-level rise. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for ice-ocean-lithosphere interactions in the past, in order to be able to properly reconstruct the evolution of the ice sheet, and for estimating its sensitivity to potential changes in climate in the future.

Monitoring the change of coastal zones from space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazenave, A. A.; Le Cozannet, G.; Benveniste, J.; Woodworth, P. L.

2017-12-01

The world's coastal zones, where an important fraction of the world population is currently living, are under serious threat because of coastal erosion, cyclones, storms, and salinization of estuaries and coastal aquifers. In the future, these hazards are expected to increase due to the combined effects of sea level rise, climate change, human activities and population increase. The response of coastal environments to natural and anthropogenic forcing factors (including climate change) depends on the characteristics of the forcing agents, as well as on the internal properties of the coastal systems, that remain poorly known and mostly un-surveyed at global scale. To better understand changes affecting coastal zones and to provide useful information to decision makers, various types of observations with global coverage need to be collected and analysed. Observations from space appear as an important complement to existing in situ observing systems (e.g., regional tide gauge networks). In this presentation, we discuss the benefit of systematic coastal monitoring from space, addressing both observations of forcing agents and of the coastal response. We highlight the need for a global coastal sea level data set based on retracked nadir altimetry missions and new SAR technology.

The Met Office Coupled Atmosphere/Land/Ocean/Sea-Ice Data Assimilation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lea, Daniel; Mirouze, Isabelle; Martin, Matthew; Hines, Adrian; Guiavarch, Catherine; Shelly, Ann

2014-05-01

The Met Office has developed a weakly-coupled data assimilation (DA) system using the global coupled model HADGEM3 (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 3). This model combines the atmospheric model UM (Unified Model) at 60 km horizontal resolution on 85 vertical levels, the ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean) at 25 km (at the equator) horizontal resolution on 75 vertical levels, and the sea-ice model CICE at the same resolution as NEMO. The atmosphere and the ocean/sea-ice fields are coupled every 1-hour using the OASIS coupler. The coupled model is corrected using two separate 6-hour window data assimilation systems: a 4D-Var for the atmosphere with associated soil moisture content nudging and snow analysis schemes on the one hand, and a 3D-Var FGAT for the ocean and sea-ice on the other hand. The background information in the DA systems comes from a previous 6-hour forecast of the coupled model. To show the impact of coupled DA, one-month experiments have been carried out, including 1) a full atmosphere/land/ocean/sea-ice coupled DA run, 2) an atmosphere-only run forced by OSTIA SSTs and sea-ice with atmosphere and land DA, and 3) an ocean-only run forced by atmospheric fields from run 2 with ocean and sea-ice DA. In addition, 5-day forecast runs, started twice a day, have been produced from initial conditions generated by either run 1 or a combination of runs 2 and 3. The different results have been compared to each other and, whenever possible, to other references such as the Met Office atmosphere and ocean operational analyses or the OSTIA data. These all show the coupled DA system functioning well. Evidence of imbalances and initialisation shocks has also been looked for.

Middle Holocene humidity increase in Florida: climate or sea-level?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donders, Timme H.

2014-11-01

Florida climate in highly sensitive to both high and low latitude climate perturbations due to its latitudinal position surrounded by water masses that transport heat northward. A well-studied aspect is that middle Holocene conditions became significantly wetter in Florida, initiating widespread peat accumulation in the Everglades. This environmental change has been attributed to various climate forcings, such as migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), increases in tropical storm intensity, position of the Bermuda High, intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and post glacial sea level rise (SLR). Discerning between these forcings is only possible with quantitative reconstructions from a transect of sites that are affected differentially. Application of a transfer function on a north-to-south gradient of pollen records from Florida lakes here shows that the pattern of increasing precipitation during the middle Holocene cannot be explained by SLR, but that ENSO intensification is an important contributing factor. Seasonal-resolved proxy records with improved age models are urgently needed to further solve these issues.

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Shannon, Sarah R.; Payne, Antony J.; Bartholomew, Ian D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W. F.; Nienow, Peter W.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F.; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; Sole, Andrew J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-01-01

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone. PMID:23940337

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Shannon, Sarah R; Payne, Antony J; Bartholomew, Ian D; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Edwards, Tamsin L; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W F; Nienow, Peter W; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F; Smeets, C J P Paul; Sole, Andrew J; van de Wal, Roderik S W; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-08-27

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone.

Assessment of extreme hydrological conditions in the Bothnian Bay, Baltic Sea, and the impact of the nuclear power plant "Hanhikivi-1" on the local thermal regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton Y.; Martyanov, Stanislav D.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.; Eremina, Tatjana R.; Isaev, Alexey V.; Sein, Dmitry V.

2017-04-01

The results of the study aimed to assess the influence of future nuclear power plant Hanhikivi-1 upon the local thermal conditions in the Bothnian Bay in the Baltic Sea are presented. A number of experiments with different numerical models were also carried out in order to estimate the extreme hydro-meteorological conditions in the area of the construction. The numerical experiments were fulfilled both with analytically specified external forcing and with real external forcing for 2 years: a cold year (2010) and a warm year (2014). The study has shown that the extreme values of sea level and water temperature and the characteristics of wind waves and sea ice in the vicinity of the future nuclear power plant can be significant and sometimes catastrophic. Permanent release of heat into the marine environment from an operating nuclear power plant will lead to a strong increase in temperature and the disappearance of ice cover within a 2 km vicinity of the station. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future.

KSC-08pd1296

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the shipping container is removed from the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1299

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- A closeup of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft after removal of the shipping container in the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1307

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, a technician oversees the attaching of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1066

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The shipping container with the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft inside is offloaded from the aircraft at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1283

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, the truck carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite is ready to transport the cargo to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1298

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Another view of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft after removal of the shipping container in the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1308

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, technicians examine the attachment of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1065

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The aircraft carrying the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft taxis past the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Stephen Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1305

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is lifted from its stand to be moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1304

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, technicians check the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft before it is moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1297

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is revealed after removal of the shipping container. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1289

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- In front of the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container is on the ground, ready to be moved inside. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1295

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the shipping container is removed from the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1067

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – The shipping container with the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft inside is offloaded from the aircraft at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1280

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- The shipping container with the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft inside is offloaded from the aircraft at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1310

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is lifted to a vertical position on the tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1309

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is lifted to a near-45-degree angle on the tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1311

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft has been lifted to a vertical position on the tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1293

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, an overhead crane is moved over the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft to lift off the shipping container. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1288

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- In front of the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, a forklift has removed the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container off the flatbed truck. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1294

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, an overhead crane is attached to the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft shipping container to remove it. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1303

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, a technician (right) checks the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft before it is moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1306

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1287

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- In front of the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, a forklift begins to lift the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container off the flatbed truck. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1279

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- The shipping container with the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft inside is offloaded from the aircraft at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the last glacial maximum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weber, Michael E.; Clark, Peter U.; Ricken, Werner; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Kuhn, Gerhard

2011-01-01

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Weber, Michael E; Clark, Peter U; Ricken, Werner; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Hostetler, Steven W; Kuhn, Gerhard

2011-12-02

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

The Role of Arctic Sea Ice in Last Millennium Climate Variability: Model-Proxy Comparisons Using Ensemble Members and Novel Model Experiments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gertler, C. G.; Monier, E.; Prinn, R. G.

2016-12-01

Variability in sea ice extent is a prominent feature of forced simulations of the last millennium and reconstructions of paleoclimate using proxy records. The rapid 20th century decline in sea ice extent is most likely due to greenhouse gas forcing, but the accuracy of future projections depend on the characterization of natural variability. Declining sea ice extent affects regional climate and society, but also plays a large role in Arctic amplification, with implications for mid-latitude circulation and even large-scale climate oscillations. To characterize the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on sea ice and the related changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, a combination of instrumental record, paleoclimate reconstructions, and general circulation models can be employed to recreate sea ice extents and the corresponding atmosphere-ocean states. Model output from the last millennium ensemble (LME) is compared to a proxy-based sea ice reconstruction and a global proxy network using a variety of statistical and data assimilation techniques. Further model runs using the Community Earth Systems Model (CESM) are performed with the same inputs as LME but forced with experimental sea ice extents, and results are contextualized within the larger ensemble by a variety of metrics.

Remarkable separability of the circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice loss has an important effect on local climate through increases in ocean to atmosphere heat flux and associated feedbacks, and may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation that can enhance or counter changes that are due to greenhouse gases. The extent to which climate change in a warming world can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by Arctic sea ice loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. Here we use a novel sea ice nudging methodology in the Canadian Earth System Model, which has a fully coupled ocean, to isolate the effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) to determine their additivity and sensitivity to mean state. We find that the separate effects of Arctic sea ice loss and doubled CO2 are remarkably additive and relatively insensitive to mean climate state. This separability is evident in several thermodynamic and dynamic fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. In this model, Arctic sea ice loss enhances the CO2-induced surface air temperature changes nearly everywhere and zonal wind changes over the Pacific sector, whereas sea ice loss counters CO2-induced sea level pressure changes nearly everywhere over land and zonal wind changes over the Atlantic sector. This separability of the response to Arctic sea ice loss from the response to CO2 doubling gives credence to the body of work in which Arctic sea ice loss is isolated from the forcing that modified it, and might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

XXI century projections of wind-wave conditions and sea-level rise in the Black sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonsky, A.; Garmashov, A.; Fomin, V.; Valchev, N.; Trifonova, E.

2012-04-01

Projection of regional climate changes for XXI century is one of the priorities of EC environmental programme. Potential worsening of the waves' statistics, sea level rise and extreme surges are the principal negative consequences of the climate change for marine environment. That is why the main purpose of this presentation is to discuss the above issue for the Black sea region (with a strong focus to the south-west subregion because the maximum heights of waves exceeding 10 m occur just here) using output of several global coupled models (GCM) for XXI century, wave simulation, long-term observations of sea level and statistical techniques. First of all we tried to choose the best coupled model (s) simulated the Black sea climate change and variability using the control experiments for 20 century (203). The principal result is as follows. There is not one model which is simulating adequately even one atmospheric parameter for all seasons. Therefore we considered (for the climate projection) different outputs form various models. When it was possible we calculated also the ensemble mean projection for the selected model (s) and emission scenarios. To calculate the wave projection we used the output of SWAN model forced by the GCM wind projection for 2010 to 2100. To estimate the sea level rise in XXI century and future surges statistics we extrapolate the observed sea level rise tendencies, statistical relation between wave heights and sea level and wave scenarios. Results show that in general, the climate change in XXI century doesn't lead to the catastrophic change of the Black sea wind-wave statistics including the extreme waves in the S-W Black sea. The typical atmospheric pattern leading to the intense storm in the S-W Black sea is characterized by the persistent anticyclonic area to the North of the Black sea and cyclonic conditions in the Southern Black sea region. Such pressure pattern causes persistent and strong eastern or north-eastern wind which generates the high waves in the S-E Black sea. The climate projections show that the frequency of such atmospheric pattern will not principally increase. The recent probability of the extreme wave height (exceeding 8 to10 m) in the S-W Black sea (~1 occurrence per 10 years) will not be much worse in XXI century. Similar conclusion is true for the storm surges along the Bulgarian coastline. Expected sea level rise in the Black sea basin for XXI century due to regional climate changes is about 2 mm per year (±50%). However, some Black sea subregions (such as Odessa and Varna bay) are characterized by fivefold sea level rise because of the local land subsidence. So, this geomorphologic effect is the most dangerous local consequence for the sustainable development and management of the coastal zone in such subregions. This study was supported by EC project "THESEUS".

Challenges faced by ice sheet projections: lessons from the SeaRISE effort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowicki, S.

2013-12-01

Projecting the future evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is a problem of enormous societal importance, as ice sheet influence our future sea levels. This crucial issue is however a non trivial task, as demonstrated by the Sea level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort: prescribing simple external forcings to a group of ice sheet models results in a spread in responses. Understanding the source of the diversity in the model results is therefore crucial in order to reduce the uncertainty in the projection. Just as in any future climate simulation, the analysis presented here demonstrates that the model spread in the SeaRISE effort is due to a number of factors. First is the problem of obtaining an initial configuration for the projection. The two commonly used methods, interglacial spin-up or data assimilation, have both advantages and drawbacks, and will affect the determination of fields that cannot be measured (such as basal slipperiness). Second is the uncertainty in actual observations, which includes but is not limited to surface mass balance, basal topography, ice thickness, and surface velocities. An additional issue with these observations is that they can be transient quantities which are not measured at the same time, but ice sheet models require them to be simultaneous. Third is the uncertainty in the models' physics and discretization, which is limited by our understanding (or lack of understanding) of crucial processes that often occur at subgrid scale relative to the resolution used by continental ice sheet models, and thus require parameterization. Grounding line migration and sliding laws are such an example. Fourth is the determination of the future forcing scenarios and their implementation as the external forcing. Unfortunately, as demonstrated in this analysis, all ice sheet models face these limitations to some degree, so that it is extremely difficult to identify a set of models and projections that should be trusted in preference to others. One model might be more suitable for assessing the impact of a warmer atmosphere because of its initialization procedure, but its deficiencies in capturing grounding line migration, for example, might make its projections for oceanic forcing unreliable. More work is thus required to evaluate individual ice sheet models' skills in projection, but this crucial and challenging task is left for future studies.

Force balance and deformation characteristics of anisotropic Arctic sea ice (a high resolution study)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feltham, D. L.; Heorton, H. D.; Tsamados, M.

2016-12-01

The spatial distribution of Arctic sea ice arises from its deformation, driven by external momentum forcing, thermodynamic growth and melt. The deformation of Arctic sea ice is observed to have structural alignment on a broad range of length scales. By considering the alignment of diamond-shaped sea ice floes, an anisotropic rheology (known as the Elastic Anisotropic Plastic, EAP, rheology) has been developed for use in a climate sea ice model. Here we present investigations into the role of anisotropy in determining the internal ice stress gradient and the complete force balance of Arctic sea ice using a state-of-the-art climate sea ice model. Our investigations are focused on the link between external imposed dynamical forcing, predominantly the wind stress, and the emergent properties of sea ice, including its drift speed and thickness distribution. We analyse the characteristics of deformation events for different sea ice states and anisotropic alignment over different regions of the Arctic Ocean. We present the full seasonal stress balance and sea ice state over the Arctic ocean. We have performed 10 km basin-scale simulations over a 30-year time scale, and 2 km and 500 m resolution simulations in an idealised configuration. The anisotropic EAP sea ice rheology gives higher shear stresses than the more customary isotropic EVP rheology, and these reduce ice drift speed and mechanical thickening, particularly important in the Archipelago. In the central Arctic the circulation of sea ice is reduced allowing it to grow thicker thermodynamically. The emergent stress-strain rate correlations from the EAP model suggest that it is possible to characterise the internal ice stresses of Arctic sea ice from observable basin-wide deformation and drift patterns.

Coastal-storm Inundation and Sea-level Rise in New Zealand Scott A. Stephens and Rob Bell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, S. A.; Bell, R.

2016-12-01

Coastal-storm inundation is a growing problem in New Zealand. It happens occasionally, when the combined forces of weather and sea line up, causing inundation of low-elevation land, coastal erosion, and rivers and stormwater systems to back up causing inland flooding. This becomes a risk where we have placed buildings and infrastructure too close to the coast. Coastal-storm inundation is not a new problem, it has happened historically, but it is becoming more frequent as the sea level continues to rise. From analyses of historic extreme sea-level events, we show how the different sea-level components, such as tide and storm surge, contribute to extreme sea-level and how these components vary around New Zealand. Recent sea-level analyses reveal some large storm surges, bigger than previously reported, and we show the type of weather patterns that drive them, and how this leads to differences in storm surge potential between the east and west coasts. Although large and damaging storm-tides have occurred historically, we show that there is potential for considerably larger elevations to be reached in the "perfect storm", and we estimate the likelihood of such extreme events occurring. Sea-level rise (SLR) will greatly increase the frequency, depth and consequences of coastal-storm inundation in the future. We show an application of a new method to determine the increasing frequency of extreme sea-levels with SLR, one which integrates the extreme tail with regularly-occurring high tides. We present spatial maps of several extreme sea-level threshold exceedance statistics for a case study at Mission Bay, Auckland, New Zealand. The maps show how the local community is likely to face decision points at various SLR thresholds, and we conclude that coastal hazard assessments should ideally use several SLR scenarios and time windows within the next 100 years or more to support the decision-making process for future coastal adaptation and when response options will be needed. In tandem, coastal hazard assessments should also provide information on SLR values linked to expected inundation frequency or depth. This can be linked to plausible timeframes for SLR thresholds to determine when critical decision points for adaptation might be reached, and we show how this might be achieved.

The seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea: model results against satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton; Sein, Dmitry; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Gorchakov, Victor; Pugalova, Svetlana

2015-04-01

This study is aimed at modelling the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea-ice, ocean circulation and marine ecosystems in the Barents Sea in the modern period. Adequate description of marine ecosystems in the ice-covered seas crucially depends on the accuracy in determining of thicknesses of ice and snow on the sea surface which control penetrating photosynthetically active radiation under the ice. One of the few models of ice able to adequately reproduce the dynamics of sea ice is the sea ice model HELMI [1], containing 7 different categories of ice. This model has been imbedded into the Princeton Ocean Model. With this coupled model 2 runs for the period 1998-2007 were performed under different atmospheric forcing prescribed from NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 archives. For prescribing conditions at the open boundary, all the necessary information about the horizontal velocity, level, temperature and salinity of the water, ice thickness and compactness was taken from the results of the global ocean general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Hamburg, Germany) MPIOM [2]. The resulting solution with NCEP forcing with a high accuracy simulates the seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) estimated from MODIS data. The maximum difference between the calculated and satellite-derived SSTs (averaged over 4 selected areas of the Barents Sea) during the period 2000-2007 does not exceed 1.5 °C. Seasonal and inter-annual variations in the area of ice cover are also in good agreement with satellite-derived estimates. Pelagic ecosystem model developed in [3] has been coupled into the above hydrodynamic model and used to calculate the changes in the characteristics of marine ecosystems under NCEP forcing. Preliminarily the ecosystem model has been improved by introducing a parameterization of detritus deposition on the bottom and through the selection of optimal parameters for photosynthesis and zooplankton grazing, providing a solution having acceptable agreement with SeaWiFS estimates of surface chlorophyll "a" concentration. The solution for the period 1998-2007 correctly reproduces the start and end of vegetation period, and, with satisfactory accuracy, the level of the spring phytoplankton bloom, but systematically overestimates the SeaWiFS chlorophyll concentrations in the northern part of the sea and in the summer everywhere except for the southern part. According to the results, the region of phytoplankton blooming during the spring outbreak is bounded by the western boundary of the sea and the edge of solid ice. This work was supported by RFBR project № 13-05-00652 References 1. Haapala, J., Lönnroth, N., Stössel, A., 2005. A numerical study of open water formation in sea ice. J. Geophys. Res., V. 110(C9). P.1-17: doi: 10.1029/2003JC002200. 2. Gröger M., E. Maier-Reimer, U. Mikolajewicz, A. Moll, and D. Sein, 2013. NW European shelf under climate warming: implications for open ocean - shelf exchange, primary production, and carbon absorption. Biogeosciences, vol.10, 3767-3792, doi:10.5194/bg-10-3767-2013. 3. Anderson T.R., V. A. Ryabchenko; M. J. Fasham; V. A. Gorchakov. Denitrification in the Arabian Sea: A 3D ecosystem modeling study. Deep-Sea Research, Part I, V. 54, Issue 12, 2007, 2082-2119

Environmental Assessment: Proposed Construction of Air Force Non-Appropriated Funds Bowling Center at Maxwell Air Force Base, Gunter Annex

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-04-01

indicates that the total residual gasoline constituents (Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, and Xylene [BTEX] and methyl tertiary butyl ether [MTBE]) are...mean sea level MTBE methyl tertiary butyl ether MW monitoring well N/A Not Applicable NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NAF Non...Toluene, Ethylbenzene, and Xylene [BTEX] and methyl tertiary butyl ether [MTBE]) are below concentrations which pose a threat to human health and

Intra-seasonal sea level variability along the west coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhage, Laxmikant; Strub, P. Ted

2016-11-01

The importance of local versus distant forcing is studied for the wind-driven intra-seasonal (30-120 day) sea level anomaly (SLA) variations along the west coast of India. Significant correlations of altimeter-derived SLA on the west coast are found with the mid-basin SLA east of Sri Lanka and SLA as far as Sumatra and the equator, with increased lags, connecting with the remote forcing from the equator in the form of reflected Rossby waves. The highest correlations between SLA on the west coast and winds are found with the winds at the southern tip of India. Coherence calculations help to identify the importance of a narrow band (40-60 day) for the interactions of winds with the intra-seasonal SLA variations. A multivariate regression model, along with the coherences within this narrower band, suggest the lags of SLA on the west coast with winds to range from 0 to 2 days with the local forcing to 11-13 days with the forcing along south east coast of India. Hovmöller diagrams illustrate the propagation of signals by estimating phase speed for Rossby waves (57 cm/s) across the Indian Ocean from Sumatra and Coastal Trapped Waves (CTWs) along the west coast of India (178 cm/s). Propagation from the south-east coast of India is not as robust as Rossby waves from Sumatra.

X-43A Flight-Test-Determined Aerodynamic Force and Moment Characteristics at Mach 7.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Mark C.; White, J. Terry

2008-01-01

The second flight of the Hyper-X program afforded a unique opportunity to determine the aerodynamic force and moment characteristics of an airframe-integrated scramjet-powered aircraft in hypersonic flight. These data were gathered via a repeated series of pitch, yaw, and roll doublets, frequency sweeps, and pushover-pullup maneuvers performed throughout the X-43A cowl-closed descent. Maneuvers were conducted at Mach numbers of 6.80-0.95 and at altitudes from 92,000 ft mean sea level to sea level. The dynamic pressure varied from 1300 to 400 psf with the angle of attack ranging from 0 to 14 deg. The flight-extracted aerodynamics were compared with preflight predictions based on wind-tunnel test data. The X-43A flight-derived axial force was found to be 10-15%higher than prediction. Underpredictions of similar magnitude were observed for the normal force. For Mach numbers above 4.0, the flight-derived stability and control characteristics resulted in larger-than-predicted static margins, with the largest discrepancy approximately 5 in. forward along the x-axis center of gravity at Mach 6.0. This condition would result in less static margin in pitch. The predicted lateral-directional stability and control characteristics matched well with flight data when allowance was made for the high uncertainty in angle of sideslip.

Is climate change an unforeseen, irresistible and external factor - A force majeure in marine environmental law?

PubMed

Saul, Roxanne; Barnes, Richard; Elliott, Michael

2016-12-15

Several environmental laws include provisions on natural causes or force majeure, which except States from their commitments if it can be proven that the failure to meet the commitment is due to factors outside their control. The European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) has a pivotal role in managing EU marine waters. This paper analyses natural causes and force majeure provisions of the MFSD and other marine legislation, and addresses their interaction with climate change and its consequences, especially the effect on the obligation of ensuring seas are in Good Environmental Status. Climate change is an exogenic unmanaged pressure in that it emanates from outside the area being managed but in which the management authority has to respond to the consequences of climate change, such as sea level rise and temperature elevation, rather than its causes. It is suggested that a defence by a Member State of force majeure may be accepted if an event was proven to be due to an externality of control, irresistible and unforeseeable. The analysis contends that countering such a legal defence would centre on the fact that climate change is a well-accepted phenomenon, is foreseen with an accepted level of confidence and probability and is due to human actions. However, as yet, this has not been legally tested. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observed and simulated changes in Antarctic sea ice and sea level pressure: anthropogenic or natural variability? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobbs, W. R.

2013-12-01

Statistically-significant changes in Antarctic sea ice cover and the overlying atmosphere have been observed over the last 30 years, but there is an open question of whether these changes are due to multi-decadal natural variability or an anthropogenically-forced response. A number of recent papers have shown that the slight increase in total sea ice cover is within the bounds of internal variability exhibited by coupled climate models in the CMIP5 suite. Modelled changes for the same time period generally show a decrease, but again with a magnitude that is within internal variability. However, in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice tends in the Antarctic are spatially highly heterogeneous, and consideration of the total ice cover may mask important regional signals. In this work, a robust ';fingerprinting' approach is used to show that the observed spatial pattern of sea ice trends is in fact outside simulated natural variability in west Antarctic, and furthermore that the CMIP5 models consistently show decreased ice cover in the Ross and Weddell Seas, sectors which in fact have an observed increase in cover. As a first step towards understanding the disagreement between models and observations, modelled sea level pressure trends are analysed using and optimal fingerprinting approach, to identify whether atmospheric deficiencies in the models can explain the model-observation discrepancy.

Managing Earth to Make Future Development More Sustainable: Learning From a Megacity Like Hong Kong

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yim, W. W.; Ollier, C. D.

2008-12-01

Selected recent findings related to climate change in Hong Kong include: (1) The Hong Kong seafloor has yielded a ~0.5-million year record of climate and sea-level changes. (2) Greenhouse gases produced naturally from sub-aerially exposed continental shelves were a probable forcing mechanism in triggering the termination of past ice ages. (3) An analysis of annual mean temperature records has revealed that the urban heat island effect has contributed ~75 % of the warming. (4) Past volcanic eruptions are found to lower Hong Kong's temperature and to cause extremely dry and wet years. (5) No evidence can be found for an increase in frequency and intensity of typhoons based on the analysis of an 8,000-year record in the Pearl River Estuary. (6) The observed rate of sea-level rise in the South China Sea is much slower than the predictions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment. For the Earth's management, population growth and the depletion of non-renewable resources must be recognized as unsustainable. The human impact on the natural hydrological cycle is an important forcing mechanism in climate change. In order to delay the demise of the human race, management must include curbing population growth and much more waste recycling than at present.

North-Australian tropical seas circulation study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burrage, Derek; Coleman, R.; Bode, L.; Inoue, M.

1991-01-01

This investigation is intended to fully address the stated objective of the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1986). Hence, we intend to use TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry data to study the large-scale circulation of the Coral Sea Basin and the Arafura Sea and the mass exchange between these and adjoining basins. We will obtain data from two such cruises in 1993 and 1994 and combine them with TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimetry data to identify interannual and seasonal changes in: (1) the location of the major ocean currents and the South Equatorial Current bifurcation in the Coral Sea; (2) the source region of the South Tropical Counter Current (STCC); and (3) the water exchange between the Coral Sea and the adjoining seas. We will also estimate seasonal and interannual variations in the horizontal transport of mass and heat associated with near-surface geostrophic and wind-driven currents. In addition, the tidal components of the Coral Sea will be studied to provide a correction for altimetry subtidal sea level changes and to develop a regional numerical model for tidal forcing in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and Papua New Guinea Reef regions.

Correlated environmental corrections in TOPEX/POSEIDON, with a note on ionospheric accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zlotnicki, V.

1994-01-01

Estimates of the effectiveness of an altimetric correction, and interpretation of sea level variability as a response to atmospheric forcing, both depend upon assuming that residual errors in altimetric corrections are uncorrelated among themselves and with residual sea level, or knowing the correlations. Not surprisingly, many corrections are highly correlated since they involve atmospheric properties and the ocean surface's response to them. The full corrections (including their geographically varying time mean values), show correlations between electromagnetic bias (mostly the height of wind waves) and either atmospheric pressure or water vapor of -40%, and between atmospheric pressure and water vapor of 28%. In the more commonly used collinear differences (after removal of the geographically varying time mean), atmospheric pressure and wave height show a -30% correlation, atmospheric pressure and water vapor a -10% correlation, both pressure and water vapor a 7% correlation with residual sea level, and a bit surprisingly, ionospheric electron content and wave height a 15% correlation. Only the ocean tide is totally uncorrelated with other corrections or residual sea level. The effectiveness of three ionospheric corrections (TOPEX dual-frequency, a smoothed version of the TOPEX dual-frequency, and Doppler orbitography and radiopositioning integrated by satellite (DORIS) is also evaluated in terms of their reduction in variance of residual sea level. Smooth (90-200 km along-track) versions of the dual-frequency altimeter ionosphere perform best both globally and within 20 deg in latitude from the equator. The noise variance in the 1/s TOPEX inospheric samples is approximately (11 mm) squared, about the same as noise in the DORIS-based correction; however, the latter has its error over scales of order 10(exp 3) km. Within 20 deg of the equator, the DORIS-based correction adds (14 mm) squared to the residual sea level variance.

Future sea-level rise from tidewater and ice-shelf tributary glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schannwell, Clemens; Barrand, Nicholas E.; Radić, Valentina

2016-11-01

Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years. As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. In this paper, the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. An ice-sheet model forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs), in response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), projects AP contribution to SLR of 28 ± 16 to 32 ± 16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dominated by tidewater glaciers (∼8-18 mm). In this cooler scenario, 2.4 ± 1 mm is added to global sea levels from ice-shelf tributary drainage basins as fewer ice-shelves are projected to collapse. Sea-level projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers are dominated by drainage basins feeding George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for ∼70% of simulated SLR. Combined total ice dynamical SLR projections to 2300 from the AP vary between 11 ± 2 and 32 ± 16 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), depending on the emission scenario used. These simulations suggest that omission of tidewater glaciers could lead to a substantial underestimation of the ice-sheet's contribution to regional SLR.

Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

2017-12-01

In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

Variation of Marine Geoid Due to Ocean Circulation and Sea Level Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, P. C.

2017-12-01

Sea level (S) change and ocean circulation largely affect the gravity field and in turns the marine geoid (N). Difference between the two, D = S - N, is the dynamic ocean topography (DOT), whose gradient represents the large-scale surface geostrophic circulations. Thus, temporal variability of marine geoid (δN) is caused by the sea level change (δS) and the DOT variation (δD), δN = δS - δD. Here, δS is identified from temporally varying satellite altimeter measures; δD is calculated from the change of DOT. For large-scale processes with conservation of potential vorticity, the geostrophic flows take minimum energy state. Based on that, a new elliptic equation is derived in this study to determine D. Here, H is the water depth; and (X, Y) are forcing functions calculated from the in-situ density. The well-posed elliptic equation is integrated numerically on 1o grids for the world oceans with the boundary values taken from the mean DOT (1993-2006) field at the NASA/JPL website: https://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/data/get-data/dynamic-ocean-typography/, the forcing function F calculated from the three-dimensional temperature and salinity of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) World Ocean Atlas 2013 version 2, and sea-floor topography (H) from the NOAA ETOPO5. The numerical solution compares reasonably well (relative root mean square difference of 0.09) with the NASA/JPL satellite observation of the difference between the time-averaged sea surface height and the geoid. In-situ ocean measurements of temperature, salinity, and velocity have also rapidly advanced such that the global ocean is now continuously monitored by near 4,000 free-drifting profiling floats (called Argo) from the surface to 2000 m depth with all data being relayed and made publicly available within hours after collection (http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/). This provides a huge database of temperature and salinity and in turns the forcing function F for the governing elliptic equation of DOT. Along with satellite altimetry data, the marine geoid (N) can be updated in a short time period. Further application of this elliptic equation method on the high-precision altimetry measurements of SSH such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) is also presented.

Rising sea levels will reduce extreme temperature variations in tide-dominated reef habitats

PubMed Central

Lowe, Ryan Joseph; Pivan, Xavier; Falter, James; Symonds, Graham; Gruber, Renee

2016-01-01

Temperatures within shallow reefs often differ substantially from those in the surrounding ocean; therefore, predicting future patterns of thermal stresses and bleaching at the scale of reefs depends on accurately predicting reef heat budgets. We present a new framework for quantifying how tidal and solar heating cycles interact with reef morphology to control diurnal temperature extremes within shallow, tidally forced reefs. Using data from northwestern Australia, we construct a heat budget model to investigate how frequency differences between the dominant lunar semidiurnal tide and diurnal solar cycle drive ~15-day modulations in diurnal temperature extremes. The model is extended to show how reefs with tidal amplitudes comparable to their depth, relative to mean sea level, tend to experience the largest temperature extremes globally. As a consequence, we reveal how even a modest sea level rise can substantially reduce temperature extremes within tide-dominated reefs, thereby partially offsetting the local effects of future ocean warming. PMID:27540589

Minimum and Maximum Potential Contributions to Future Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deconto, R. M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

New climate and ice-sheet modeling, calibrated to past changes in sea-level, is painting a stark picture of the future fate of the great polar ice sheets if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. This is especially true for Antarctica, where a substantial fraction of the ice sheet rests on bedrock more than 500-meters below sea level. Here, we explore the sensitivity of the polar ice sheets to a warming atmosphere and ocean under a range of future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The ice sheet-climate-ocean model used here considers time-evolving changes in surface mass balance and sub-ice oceanic melting, ice deformation, grounding line retreat on reverse-sloped bedrock (Marine Ice Sheet Instability), and newly added processes including hydrofracturing of ice shelves in response to surface meltwater and rain, and structural collapse of thick, marine-terminating ice margins with tall ice-cliff faces (Marine Ice Cliff Instability). The simulations improve on previous work by using 1) improved atmospheric forcing from a Regional Climate Model and 2) a much wider range of model physical parameters within the bounds of modern observations of ice dynamical processes (particularly calving rates) and paleo constraints on past ice-sheet response to warming. Approaches to more precisely define the climatic thresholds capable of triggering rapid and potentially irreversible ice-sheet retreat are also discussed, as is the potential for aggressive mitigation strategies like those discussed at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference (COP21) to substantially reduce the risk of extreme sea-level rise. These results, including physics that consider both ice deformation (creep) and calving (mechanical failure of marine terminating ice) expand on previously estimated limits of maximum rates of future sea level rise based solely on kinematic constraints of glacier flow. At the high end, the new results show the potential for more than 2m of global mean sea level rise by 2100, implying that physically plausible upper limits on future sea-level rise might need to be reconsidered.

Coastal Geomorphology, Growth Patterns and Stratigraphy of Uplifted Coral-Reef Terraces of Sumba Island, Indonesia: Towards a Re-Evaluation of Quaternary Sea-Level Highstands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigaud, S.; Leclerc, F.; Abidin, H. Z.; Bijaksana, S.; Chiang, H. W.; Ginting Munthe, F. A.; Liu, X.; Meilano, I.; Pradipta, G. C.; Ramdhani, B. D.; Tapponnier, P.; Wang, X.

2016-12-01

The island of Sumba (Indonesia) is uniquely located within the Sunda-Banda forearc, at the transition between oceanic subduction and arc-continent collision, and has experienced vertical movements for the last 7 Myrs (Fortuin et al., 1997). The spectacular flights of coral-reef terraces exposed on the northern coast have served as benchmarks to reconstruct Quaternary sea-level highstands (stages 5 to 23). Sea-level paleo-elevations were established using reef crests and marine notches as geomorphological markers, assuming a constant uplift rate of 0.49 mm/yr and neglecting erosion and weathering processes (Pirazzoli et al., 1991, 1993). Recent and fossil coral reefs of the northern coast of Sumba Island are fringing, leeward reefs. A new examination of the morphology and stratigraphy of fossil terraces shows that they are primarily built by prograding complexes formed during forced regressions. The current geomorphological expression of reef crests, therefore, does not correspond to the highest position of past sea-levels. The same is true for marine notches, which may only indicate intermediary still-stand phases and are barely distinguishable from weathering surfaces in terraces older than stages 5-7. In our study, we use the elevation of the inner edges of coral terraces as indicators of the highest position of the sea-level during Quaternary highstands. At the island scale, our geomorphological investigations, U/Th dating and high-resolution correlations point to high discrepancies in the deformation patterns, especially at Cape Laundi where the position of past sea-level highstands was established. Through a multi-disciplinary study involving geomorphology, stratigraphy, tectonic, sedimentology, paleontology and geochronology, we offer new estimates for uplift rates at the island scale and re-evaluate the elevation of past sea-level highstands. References : Fortuin et al. 1997. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 15, p. 61-88. Pirazzoli et al. 1991. Science 252, p. 1834-1836. Pirazzoli et al. 1993. Marine Geology 109, p. 221-236.

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, M. E.; Clark, P. U.; Ricken, W.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Hostetler, S. W.; Kuhn, G.

2012-04-01

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood because only a few findings with robust chronologies exist for Antarctic ice sheets. We developed a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates the advance to their maximum extent at 29 -28 ka, and retreat from their maximum extent at 19 ka was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (Weber, M.E., Clark, P. U., Ricken, W., Mitrovica, J. X., Hostetler, S. W., and Kuhn, G. (2011): Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the Last Glacial Maximum. - Science, 334, 1265-1269, doi: 10.1126:science.1209299). As for the deglaciation, modeling studies suggest a late ice-sheet retreat starting around 14 ka BP and ending around 7 ka BP with a large impact of an unstable West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and a small impact of a stable East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). However, the Weddell Sea sites studied here, as well as sites from the Scotia Sea, provide evidence that specifically the EAIS responded much earlier, possibly provided a significant contribution to the last sea-level rise, and was much more dynamic than previously thought. Using the results of an atmospheric general circulation we conclude that surface climate forcing of Antarctic ice mass balance would likely cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Furthermore, our new data support teleconnections involving a sea-level fingerprint forced from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets as indicated by gravitational modeling. Also, changes in North Atlantic Deepwater formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines may have contributed to synchronizing the hemispheric ice sheets.

Arctic Interglacial Warmth - can Beringian paleoclimate records inform us concerning the transition we are now in?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigham-Grette, J.

2011-12-01

Contemporary change cannot be evaluated without the perspective of past rates of change in concert with a complete evaluation of associated feedbacks and forcings. Paleoclimate studies offer the only valid context for evaluating trajectories and dynamics in the climate system especially in a warming world driven by anthropogenic CO2. "If it happened before it could happen again" and it is with this adage that most of the paleoclimate community is now screaming déjà vu. The present rate of global scale warming is unprecedented within the resolution of paleorecords. High resolution terrestrial studies (lakes, tree rings and ice cores) of the last 2 ka across the Arctic clearly show that the wholesale warming of the past few decades is unprecedented and likely forced by increases in green house gas emissions. Emerging evidence of earlier warm periods over the past few million years inform us about the sensitivity of the arctic system to change, particularly the rates and magnitudes of warmth that directly impact the seasonal extent and existence of sea ice, the melt of glacial systems and changes in sea level. While there is some consensus about the rapid response of the sea-ice albedo feedback processes, it still remains difficult to model. Large changes in seasonal ice across the Arctic have been documented for parts of the early Holocene due to insolation forcing and sea ice was arguably less extensive during MIS 5e (125ka), and several other interglacials. Along with less sea ice there are data to suggest large northward range extensions of marine flora and fauna that likely accompanied changes in water mass structure. Sustained warmth during the Pliocene (especially 3.0 to 3.6 Ma) suggests several intervals when summer sea ice was absent and even the presence of winter sea ice is debated. While different research groups have each produced a variety estimates for pCO2 in mid Pliocene ranging from 280 ppm to 400 ppm, most agree that pCO2 may have been like today in the 350 to 400 ppm range as a major forcing factor. New continuous interglacial records from the Lake El'gygytgyn core (central Chukotka) correlative with well-known marine isotopic stages 5e, 9, 11 and 31, which each differ in character, presumably due to orbital forcing and feedbacks. Because many of these warm episodes at Lake El'gygytgyn surpass the warmth of the last interglacial when the Greenland Ice Sheet is thought to have been smaller than today, these new data will contribute to modeling efforts that test the vulnerability of Arctic sea ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet to global warming.

Variability of High-Resolution Sea Surface Heights on a Broad, Shallow Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crout, R. L.; Rice, A. E.

2017-12-01

Recent satellite altimeter technologies and processing methodologies are allowing investigation of the dynamics of the continental shelf as never before. The region seaward of 20 km from the coast is a region where winds, tides, currents, river discharge, and bathymetry interact. All of these are important parameters to understand when applying coastal altimetry to coastal sea level monitoring. Processing of 8 years (July 2008 to July 2016) of Jason-2 altimeter 20 Hz data from the L2 AVISO-PISTACH experimental products yields nearly 300 crossings of the broad continental shelf to the southeast of Delaware Bay from Cape May, NJ. Removal of a mean surface yields individual crossings that, plotted together, form an envelope that shows high water level variability near the coast. Water level changes near the coast begin at a hinge point that occurs approximately 50 km from shore in less than 30 meters of water. Comparison of individual Jason-2 passes with regional weather patterns, cold front passages, local winds, tides, surface currents, river discharge, and regional oceanography provides information regarding the forcing factors for these regional water levels. The water levels farther than 20 km from shore show similar patterns to the low pass filtered tide data at Cape May, NJ and respond primarily to regional forcing.

Correspondence of Mesozoic Eustatic Sea-Level Change with Palaeoclimate Proxies: Evidence for Glacio-Eustasy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmons, M.; Davies, A.; Gréselle, B.

2011-12-01

Large-scale changes in stratigraphic architecture and facies that are brought about by changes in relative sea-level have been the focus of much academic and industry study over the last few decades. The authors, plus numerous colleagues, have studied over 11,000 stratigraphic sections worldwide. By applying biostratigraphic and chemostratigraphic calibration in suitable locations from this dataset it is possible to demonstrate over 250 synchronous global sequence stratigraphic events in the Phanerozoic including over 100 in the Mesozoic. This then raises the question - what causes globally synchronous eustatic sea-level change? To answer this question requires an understanding of both the pace and amplitude of the observed eustatic sea-level change. In successions where duration can be deduced from orbital forcing cycles, our observed sea-level changes appear to be relatively rapid - less than 500,000 years, for example, for sea-level rises in the Late Jurassic. The amplitude of such rises is in the order of tens of metres. Such rates and amplitudes as inferred from our global model preclude tectonism as a primary driver and implicate glacio-eustacy as a key driving mechanism, even in supposed "greenhouse times". Given the clear economic importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms driving this eustatic change we have compiled records of key isotopic proxies through the entire Mesozoic in an effort to explore the relationship between global sea-level and palaeoclimate. Our research reveals a clear link between many large-scale maximum flooding events with known episodes of palaeoclimatic warming and between climatic cooling events and lowstand intervals, further implicating glacio-eustacy. In addition to the isotopic proxy evidence we have also compiled direct indicators for the occurrence of cold polar conditions, including the presence of ice sheets, in the Mesozoic (e.g. tillites, glendonites). This has been incorporated into plate tectonic reconstructions in order to explore the relationship with the presence of significant polar land masses. Both isotopic and direct evidence suggest the episodic presence of polar ice sheets for periods previously supposed as ice free and that glacio-eustacy can be suggested as a major driver of Mesozoic eustatic sea-level change.

Arctic Climate and Atmospheric Planetary Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cavalieri, D. J.; Haekkinen, S.

2000-01-01

Analysis of a fifty-year record (1946-1995) of monthly-averaged sea level pressure data provides a link between the phases of planetary-scale sea level pressure waves and Arctic Ocean and ice variability. Results of this analysis show: (1) a breakdown of the dominant wave I pattern in the late 1960's, (2) shifts in the mean phase of waves 1 and 2 since this breakdown, (3) an eastward shift in the phases of both waves 1 and 2 during the years of simulated cyclonic Arctic Ocean circulation relative to their phases during the years of anticyclonic circulation, (4) a strong decadal variability of wave phase associated with simulated Arctic Ocean circulation changes. Finally, the Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns that emerge when waves 1 and 2 are in their extreme eastern and western positions suggest an alternative approach to determine significant forcing patterns of sea ice and high-latitude variability.

Future sea-level rise from tidewater and ice-shelf tributary glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schannwell, C.; Barrand, N. E.; Radic, V.

2016-12-01

Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years. As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. Here the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. The British Antarctic Survey Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Model (BAS-APISM), previously shown to be suitable for the unique topographic setting from the AP, is forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5), simulations project contribution to SLR of 28±16 to 32±16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dominated by tidewater glaciers ( ˜8-18 mm). In this cooler scenario, 2.4±1 mm is added to global sea levels from ice-shelf tributary drainage basins as fewer ice-shelves are projected to collapse. Sea-level projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers are dominated by drainage basins feeding George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for ˜70% of simulated SLR. Combined total ice dynamical SLR projections to 2300 from the AP vary between 11±2 and 32±16 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), depending on the emission scenario used. These simulations suggest that omission of tidewater glaciers could lead to a substantial underestimation of the ice-sheet's contribution to regional SLR. Iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers contribute significant amounts to global sea-level rise (SLR) from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). Owing to ongoing ice dynamical changes (collapse of buttressing ice shelves), these contributions have accelerated in recent years. As the AP is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, further ice dynamical adjustment (increased ice discharge) is expected over the next two centuries. Here the first regional SLR projection of the AP from both iceberg calving and increased ice discharge from ice-shelf tributary glaciers in response to ice-shelf collapse is presented. The British Antarctic Survey Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Model (BAS-APISM), previously shown to be suitable for the unique topographic setting from the AP, is forced by temperature output from 13 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In response to the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)8.5), simulations project contribution to SLR of 28±16 to 32±16 mm by 2300, partitioned approximately equally between contributions from tidewater glaciers and ice-shelf tributary glaciers. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea-level rise projections to 2300 are dominated by tidewater glaciers ( ˜8-18 mm). In this cooler scenario, 2.4±1 mm is added to global sea levels from ice-shelf tributary drainage basins as fewer ice-shelves are projected to collapse. Sea-level projections from ice-shelf tributary glaciers are dominated by drainage basins feeding George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for ˜70% of simulated SLR. Combined total ice dynamical SLR projections to 2300 from the AP vary between 11±2 and 32±16 mm sea-level equivalent (SLE), depending on the emission scenario used. These simulations suggest that omission of tidewater glaciers could lead to a substantial underestimation of the ice-sheet's contribution to regional SLR.

Fractality of eroded coastlines of correlated landscapes.

PubMed

Morais, P A; Oliveira, E A; Araújo, N A M; Herrmann, H J; Andrade, J S

2011-07-01

Using numerical simulations of a simple sea-coast mechanical erosion model, we investigate the effect of spatial long-range correlations in the lithology of coastal landscapes on the fractal behavior of the corresponding coastlines. In the model, the resistance of a coast section to erosion depends on the local lithology configuration as well as on the number of neighboring sea sides. For weak sea forces, the sea is trapped by the coastline and the eroding process stops after some time. For strong sea forces erosion is perpetual. The transition between these two regimes takes place at a critical sea force, characterized by a fractal coastline front. For uncorrelated landscapes, we obtain, at the critical value, a fractal dimension D=1.33, which is consistent with the dimension of the accessible external perimeter of the spanning cluster in two-dimensional percolation. For sea forces above the critical value, our results indicate that the coastline is self-affine and belongs to the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang universality class. In the case of landscapes generated with power-law spatial long-range correlations, the coastline fractal dimension changes continuously with the Hurst exponent H, decreasing from D=1.34 to 1.04, for H=0 and 1, respectively. This nonuniversal behavior is compatible with the multitude of fractal dimensions found for real coastlines.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holt, Jason; Schrum, Corinna; Cannaby, Heather; Daewel, Ute; Allen, Icarus; Artioli, Yuri; Bopp, Laurent; Butenschon, Momme; Fach, Bettina A.; Harle, James; Pushpadas, Dhanya; Salihoglu, Baris; Wakelin, Sarah

2016-01-01

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas' ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton's exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

Evidence of Boundary Reflection of Kelvin and First-Mode Rossby Waves from Topex/Poseidon Sea Level Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Fu, Lee-Lueng

1996-01-01

The TOPEX/POSEIDON sea level data lead to new opportunities to investigate some theoretical mechanisms suggested to be involved in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon in the tropical Pacific ocean. In particular, we are interested in studying the western boundary reflection, a process crucial for the delayed action oscillator theory, by using the TOPEX/POSEIDON data from November 1992 to May 1995. We first projected the sea level data onto Kelvin and first-mode Ross waves. Then we estimated the contribution of wind forcing to these waves by using a single baroclinic mode simple wave model forced by the ERS-1 wind data. Wave propagation was clearly observed with amplitudes well explained by the wind forcing in the ocean interior. Evidence of wave reflection was detected at both the western and eastern boundaries of the tropical Pacific ocean. At the eastern boundary, Kelvin waves were seen to reflect as first-mode Rossby waves during the entire period. The reflection efficiency (in terms of wave amplitude) of the South American coasts was estimated to be 80% of that of an infinite meridional wall. At the western boundary, reflection was observed in April-August 1993, in January-June 1994, and, later, in December 1994 to February 1995. Although the general roles of these reflection events in the variability observed in the equatorial Pacific ocean are not clear, the data suggest that the reflections in January-June 1994 have played a role in the onset of the warm conditions observed in late 1994 to early 1995. Indeed, during the January-June 1994 period, as strong downwelling first-mode Rossby waves reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves, easterly wind and cold sea surface temperature anomalies located near the date line weakened and eventually reversed in June-July 1994. The presence of the warm anomalies near the date line then favored convection and westerly wind anomalies that triggered strong downwelling Kelvin waves propagating throughout the basin simultaneously with the beginning of the 1994-1995 warm conditions.

Propagation of the Sea of Azov plume in the Black Sea and its relation with atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavialov, Ivan; Osadchiev, Alexander

2017-04-01

This work is devoted to research of the influence of wind forcing on propagation of the Sea of Azov water plume in the Black Sea. The Sea of Azov water is characterized by relatively low salinity and high concentrations of suspended matter, terrigenic nutrients, and anthropogenic pollutants. Thus, the Sea of Azov inflow has significant impacts on physical, chemical, and biological processes in the Black Sea. The increased concentration of the suspended matter in the Sea of Azov plume allows to determine accurately its borders based on remote sensing data. For this purpose, data of the satellite color scanner MERIS/EnviSat with 300-meter spatial resolution were used. Atmospheric forcing on the Sea of Azov plume was investigated with the data of 6-hour reanalysis of winds (MERRA and NCAR/NCEP) with spatial resolution at 1/2 degrees in latitude and 2/3 degrees in longitude. Based on satellite images and wind reanalysis data for 2002-2012 period, it was established that the Azov Sea water inflow is favored by strong N and NE winds, which prevail in the region. It is evident in the processed satellite data that the Sea of Azov plume mainly extends along the east coast of the Crimean peninsula. In some cases under sufficiently strong winds, the Azov waters spread to the southern coast of the Crimea, and sometimes even to its south-west extremity. Factors influencing the propagation of the Azov Sea plume include intensity of water exchange between the Azov and the Black seas, the Rim Current, mesoscale eddies and other dynamic processes. However, the study demonstrated that the influence of wind forcing is dominant. Empirical regressions are derived expressing the dependence of the Azov plume area and its orientation on the magnitude and directions of the wind stress. Satellite-derived statistics of the Azov plume in the Black Sea characteristics are obtained.

KSC-08pd1312

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is viewed from another angle after being lifted to a vertical position on the tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1606

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- The Delta II second stage is transported onto Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. It will be lifted into the mobile service tower and installed on the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1615

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II second stage is lowered inside the mobile service tower toward the first stage. The second stage will be mated to the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1082

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Workers prepare to move the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite onto a flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be transported to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1610

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Suspended vertically, the Delta II second stage is ready to be lifted into the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The second stage will be installed on the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1282

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Workers move the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite on a flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be transported to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1327

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, workers center the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft above the launcher in the umbilical tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1328

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, workers attach the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft to the launcher in the umbilical tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1301

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, workers attach an overhead crane to the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The spacecraft will be moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1281

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Workers prepare to move the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite onto a flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be transported to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1614

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II second stage is lowered inside the mobile service tower toward the first stage. The second stage will be mated to the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1286

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base, workers remove the straps holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite shipping container on the flatbed truck. The container will be moved inside the Astrotech processing facility at right. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1084

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Workers adjust the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite after its placement on the flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be transported to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1083

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Workers check the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite after its placement on the flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be transported to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1300

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, an overhead crane is being attached to the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The spacecraft will be moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1086

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Ground support equipment associated with the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite is placed on a flatbed truck at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The equipment will accompany the satellite to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1302

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Inside the Astrotech processing facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, technicians attach an overhead crane to the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The spacecraft will be moved to a tilt dolly. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Mark Mackley

KSC-08pd1608

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Workers on Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California maneuver the transporter with the Delta II second stage into place. It will be lifted into the mobile service tower and installed on the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1079

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-29

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – After arrival of the cargo plane, the shipping container holding the OSTM/Jason-2 satellite is offloaded at Vandenberg Air Force Base. The satellite will be taken to the Astrotech processing facility. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Steve Greenberg, JPL

KSC-08pd1611

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Workers on Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California place protective covers over the engine of the Delta II second stage. It will be lifted into the mobile service tower for installation on the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1326

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft is moved into place above the launcher in the umbilical tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Optically stimulated luminescence age controls on late Pleistocene and Holocene coastal lithosomes, North Carolina, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mallinson, D.; Burdette, K.; Mahan, S.; Brook, G.

2008-01-01

Luminescence ages from a variety of coastal features on the North Carolina Coastal Plain provide age control for shoreline formation and relative sea-level position during the late Pleistocene. A series of paleoshoreline ridges, dating to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5a and MIS 3 have been defined. The Kitty Hawk beach ridges, on the modern Outer Banks, yield ages of 3 to 2??ka. Oxygen-isotope data are used to place these deposits in the context of global climate and sea-level change. The occurrence of MIS 5a and MIS 3 shorelines suggests that glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) of the study area is large (ca. 22 to 26??m), as suggested and modeled by other workers, and/or MIS 3 sea level was briefly higher than suggested by some coral reef studies. Correcting the shoreline elevations for GIA brings their elevation in line with other sea-level indicators. The age of the Kitty Hawk beach ridges places the Holocene shoreline well west of its present location at ca. 3 to 2??ka. The age of shoreline progradation is consistent with the ages of other beach ridge complexes in the southeast USA, suggesting some regionally contemporaneous forcing mechanism. ?? 2007 University of Washington.

Dating glacimarine sediments from the continental shelf in the Amundsen Sea using a multi-tool box: Implications for West Antarctic ice-sheet extent and retreat during the last glacial cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillenbrand, C. D.; Smith, J.; Klages, J. P.; Kuhn, G.; Maher, B.; Moreton, S.; Wacker, L.; Frederichs, T.; Wiers, S.; Jernas, P.; Anderson, J. B.; Ehrmann, W. U.; Graham, A. G. C.; Gohl, K.; Larter, R. D.

2016-02-01

Satellite data and in-situ measurements show that today considerable mass loss is occurring from the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The observational record only spans the past four decades, and until recently the long-term context of the current deglaciation was poorly constrained. This information is, however, crucial for understanding WAIS dynamics, evaluating the role of forcing mechanisms for ice-sheet melting, and testing and calibrating ice-sheet models that attempt to predict future WAIS behavior and its impact on global sea level. Over the past decade several multinational marine expeditions and terrestrial fieldwork campaigns have targeted the Amundsen Sea shelf and its hinterland to reconstruct the WAIS configuration during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and its subsequent deglacial history. The resulting studies succeeded in shedding light on the maximum WAIS extent at the LGM and the style, pattern and speed of its retreat and thinning thereafter. Despite this progress, however, significant uncertainties and discrepancies between marine and terrestrial reconstructions remain, which may arise from difficulties in dating sediment cores from the Antarctic shelf, especially their deglacial sections. Resolving these issues is crucial for understanding the WAIS' contribution to post-LGM sea-level rise, its sensitivity to different forcing mechanisms and its future evolution. Here we present chronological constraints on WAIS advance in the Amundsen Sea and its retreat from 20 ka BP into the Holocene that were obtained by various techniques, such as 14C dating of large ( 10 mg) and small (<<1 mg) sample aliquots of calcareous microfossils, 14C dating of acid-insoluble organic matter combusted at low (300 °C) and high (800 °C) temperatures and dating of sediment cores by using geomagnetic paleointensity. We will compare the different age constraints and discuss their reliability, applicability and implications for WAIS history.

Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: Mean seasonal cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Linghan; McClean, Julie L.; Miller, Arthur J.; Eisenman, Ian; Hendershott, Myrl C.; Papadopoulos, Caroline A.

2014-12-01

The seasonal cycle of sea ice variability in the Bering Sea, together with the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that control it, are examined in a fine resolution (1/10°) global coupled ocean/sea-ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The ocean/sea-ice model consists of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). The model was forced with time-varying reanalysis atmospheric forcing for the time period 1970-1989. This study focuses on the time period 1980-1989. The simulated seasonal-mean fields of sea ice concentration strongly resemble satellite-derived observations, as quantified by root-mean-square errors and pattern correlation coefficients. The sea ice energy budget reveals that the seasonal thermodynamic ice volume changes are dominated by the surface energy flux between the atmosphere and the ice in the northern region and by heat flux from the ocean to the ice along the southern ice edge, especially on the western side. The sea ice force balance analysis shows that sea ice motion is largely associated with wind stress. The force due to divergence of the internal ice stress tensor is large near the land boundaries in the north, and it is small in the central and southern ice-covered region. During winter, which dominates the annual mean, it is found that the simulated sea ice was mainly formed in the northern Bering Sea, with the maximum ice growth rate occurring along the coast due to cold air from northerly winds and ice motion away from the coast. South of St Lawrence Island, winds drive the model sea ice southwestward from the north to the southwestern part of the ice-covered region. Along the ice edge in the western Bering Sea, model sea ice is melted by warm ocean water, which is carried by the simulated Bering Slope Current flowing to the northwest, resulting in the S-shaped asymmetric ice edge. In spring and fall, similar thermodynamic and dynamic patterns occur in the model, but with typically smaller magnitudes and with season-specific geographical and directional differences.

Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bittermann, Klaus; Kemp, Andrew; Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2017-04-01

Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60 m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the 'Holocene Optimum'. From there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with a semi-empirical sea-level model. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., Pollard, D., & Tarasov, L. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews, 103, 91-115. Golledge, N.R., Menviel, L., Carter, L., Fogwill, C.J., England, M.H., Cortese, G., & Levy, R.H. 2014. Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1A from reduced Southern Ocean overturning. Nature communications, 5, 5107. Vinther, B.M., Buchardt, S.L., Clausen, H.B., Dahl-Jensen, D., Johnsen, S.J., Fisher, D.A., Koerner, R.M., Raynaud, D., Lipenkov, V., Andersen, K.K., Blunier, T., Rasmussen, S.O., Steffensen, J.P., & Svensson, A.M. 2009. Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet. Nature, 461(7262), 385-388.

Sea ice and polar climate in the NCAR CSM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weatherly, J.W.; Briegleb, B.P.; Large, W.G.

The Climate System Model (CSM) consists of atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea-ice components linked by a flux coupler, which computes fluxes of energy and momentum between components. The sea-ice component consists of a thermodynamic formulation for ice, snow, and leads within the ice pack, and ice dynamics using the cavitating-fluid ice rheology, which allows for the compressive strength of ice but ignores shear viscosity. The results of a 300-yr climate simulation are presented, with the focus on sea ice and the atmospheric forcing over sea ice in the polar regions. The atmospheric model results are compared to analyses from themore » European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other observational sources. The sea-ice concentrations and velocities are compared to satellite observational data. The atmospheric sea level pressure (SLP) in CSM exhibits a high in the central Arctic displaced poleward from the observed Beaufort high. The Southern Hemisphere SLP over sea ice is generally 5 mb lower than observed. Air temperatures over sea ice in both hemispheres exhibit cold biases of 2--4 K. The precipitation-minus-evaporation fields in both hemispheres are greatly improved over those from earlier versions of the atmospheric GCM.« less

Proceedings of the 1980 Tri-Service Conference on Corrosion, 5-7 November 1980, US Air Force Academy, Colorado. Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-11-01

McCourry Warner Robins ALC/MMETC R obins AFB, Georgia Overview -.4Corrosion of Naval, Sea Systems) 41 George A. Wacker, Head Metals Divisioný David...Materials and Structure / Naval Sea Systems Command ( Sea 05R15) Washington, D. C. 20362 Vincent D. Schafer Materials Engineer David Taylor Naval Ship R&D...IL(USAF) -) 1969 Society Activities/Offices: Air Force Association 40 .- - - - ---i/ AFWAL-TR-81-4019 I! CORROSION OF NAVAL SEA SYSTEMS AN OVERVIEW

Paleo-surfaces of glacio-eustatically forced aggradational successions in the coastal area of Rome: Assessing interplay between tectonics and sea-level during the last ten interglacials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marra, Fabrizio; Florindo, Fabio; Anzidei, Marco; Sepe, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

Recently acquired geochronological and stratigraphic data provide new information on the sedimentary successions deposited by the Paleo-Tiber River in the coastal and near-coastal area of Rome in consequence of the glacio-eustatic changes, allowing to better define their inner geometry and palaeogeographic spatial distribution. In the present work we use this revised sedimentary dataset to provide a geochronologically constrained and tectonically adjusted record of paleo sea-level indicators. Aimed at this scope, we review literature data acquired in the last 35 years and using the new geochronological constraints we pinpoint the coastal-to-fluvial terraces of MIS 5 and MIS 7, mapping their relic surfaces in an area of 30 km along the coast north and south of the Tiber River mouth, and 20 km inland of the fluvial valleys of Tiber and Aniene rivers. The geometry of these paleo-surfaces provides constraints on the relative elevation of the sea-level during the last interglacials and on the uplift rates in this region during the last 200 ka. In particular, we recognize the previously undetected terraces of MIS 5.3 and MIS 5.1 interstadials, and we assess their spatial relationship with respect to MIS 5.5, providing important information on sea-level oscillations during this time span. Comparison with sea-level indicators provided by previous aggradational successions deposited during past interglacials spanning MIS 9 through MIS 21 in the coastal area of Rome, also allows us to reconstruct the tectonic history and investigate its relationships with the Middle-Pleistocene volcanic activity of the Roman Comagmatic Region along the Tyrrhenian Sea margin of Italy in the last 900 ka.

Seasonal variation of the water exchange through the Bohai Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.

2016-02-01

Seasonal variations of the Lubei coastal current off the northern Shandong Peninsula and water exchange between the Bohai and Yellow seas were analyzed, based on current and salinity data measured mainly in 2006, 2007 and 2012. In winter and autumn, the Lubei coastal current flows eastward through the Bohai Strait before ultimately heading southward into the waters off Chengshantou in the east of the Shandong Peninsula. In spring and summer, the Lubei coastal current disappears. There are three kinds of patterns of water exchange between the Bohai and Yellow seas. The first is the "inflow in the north and outflow in the south of the Bohai Strait" in winter and autumn, which is regarded as the permanent pattern during the whole year from literature. The second is "outflow in the surface layer and inflow in the underlying layer" in summer, where the outflow is significantly greater than the inflow related with increased runoff and precipitation. The third is "inflow together in the southern and northern channels of the Bohai Strait" in spring. The low mean sea level and N-S sea-level incline formed in winter in the Bohai Sea lose their dynamic balance because of the reversal of the northeast monsoon in spring. This forces the water from the northern Yellow Sea into the Bohai Sea via the southern and northern channels of the Bohai Strait, which constitutes the largest net inflow of the four seasons.

El Nino influence on Holocene reef accretion in Hawai'i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rooney, J.; Fletcher, C.; Grossman, E.; Engels, M.; Field, M.

2004-01-01

New observations of reef accretion from several locations show that in Hawai'i accretion during early to middle Holocene time occurred in areas where today it is precluded by the wave regime, suggesting an increase in wave energy. Accretion of coral and coralline algae reefs in the Hawaiian Islands today is largely controlled by wave energy. Many coastal areas in the main Hawaiian Islands are periodically exposed to large waves, in particular from North Pacific swell and hurricanes. These are of sufficient intensity to prevent modern net accretion as evidenced by the antecedent nature of the seafloor. Only in areas sheltered from intense wave energy is active accretion observed. Analysis of reef cores reveals patterns of rapid early Holocene accretion in several locations that terminated by middle Holocene time, ca. 5000 yr ago. Previous analyses have suggested that changes in Holocene accretion were a result of reef growth "catching up" to sea level. New data and interpretations indicate that the end of reef accretion in the middle Holocene may be influenced by factors in addition to sea level. Reef accretion histories from the islands of Kaua'i, O'ahu, and Moloka'i may be interpreted to suggest that a change in wave energy contributed to the reduction or termination of Holocene accretion by 5000 yr ago in some areas. In these cases, the decrease in reef accretion occurred before the best estimates of the decrease in relative sea-level rise during the mid-Holocene high stand of sea level in the main Hawaiian Islands. However, reef accretion should decrease following the termination of relative sea-level rise (ca. 3000 yr ago) if reef growth were "catching up" to sea level. Evidence indicates that rapid accretion occurred at these sites in early Holocene time and that no permanent accretion is occurring at these sites today. This pattern persists despite the availability of hard substrate suitable for colonization at a wide range of depths between -30 m and the intertidal zone. We infer that forcing other than relative sea-level rise has altered the natural ability to support reef accretion on Hawaiian insular shelves. The limiting factor in these areas today is wave energy. Numbers of both large North Pacific swell events and hurricanes in Hawai'i are greater during El Nino years. We infer that if these major reef-limiting forces were suppressed, net accretion would occur in some areas in Hawai'i that are now wave-limited. Studies have shown that El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was significantly weakened during early-mid Holocene time, only attaining an intensity similar to the current one ca. 5000 yr ago. We speculate that this shift in ENSO may assist in explaining patterns of Holocene Hawaiian reef accretion that are different from those of the present and apparently not related to relative sen-level rise.

An Investigation of the Radiative Effects and Climate Feedbacks of Sea Ice Sources of Sea Salt Aerosol

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horowitz, H. M.; Alexander, B.; Bitz, C. M.; Jaegle, L.; Burrows, S. M.

2017-12-01

In polar regions, sea ice is a major source of sea salt aerosol through lofting of saline frost flowers or blowing saline snow from the sea ice surface. Under continued climate warming, an ice-free Arctic in summer with only first-year, more saline sea ice in winter is likely. Previous work has focused on climate impacts in summer from increasing open ocean sea salt aerosol emissions following complete sea ice loss in the Arctic, with conflicting results suggesting no net radiative effect or a negative climate feedback resulting from a strong first aerosol indirect effect. However, the radiative forcing from changes to the sea ice sources of sea salt aerosol in a future, warmer climate has not previously been explored. Understanding how sea ice loss affects the Arctic climate system requires investigating both open-ocean and sea ice sources of sea-salt aerosol and their potential interactions. Here, we implement a blowing snow source of sea salt aerosol into the Community Earth System Model (CESM) dynamically coupled to the latest version of the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE5). Snow salinity is a key parameter affecting blowing snow sea salt emissions and previous work has assumed constant regional snow salinity over sea ice. We develop a parameterization for dynamic snow salinity in the sea ice model and examine how its spatial and temporal variability impacts the production of sea salt from blowing snow. We evaluate and constrain the snow salinity parameterization using available observations. Present-day coupled CESM-CICE5 simulations of sea salt aerosol concentrations including sea ice sources are evaluated against in situ and satellite (CALIOP) observations in polar regions. We then quantify the present-day radiative forcing from the addition of blowing snow sea salt aerosol with respect to aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. The relative contributions of sea ice vs. open ocean sources of sea salt aerosol to radiative forcing in polar regions is discussed.

Termination of the Last Glacial Maximum sea-level lowstand: The Sunda-Shelf data revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanebuth, T. J. J.; Stattegger, K.; Bojanowski, A.

2009-03-01

The sea-level history around the last glaciation is in the focus of recent, controversial debates. A profound understanding of sea-level changes during this time interval is, however, essential since sea level is a central parameter in the climate system as well as a major force on continental margin sedimentation. Here, we present a seismic record together with augmented data from the Sunda Shelf [Hanebuth, T.J.J., Stattegger, K., Saito, Y., 2002. The architecture of the central Sunda Shelf (SE Asia) recorded by shallow-seismic surveying. Geo-Marine Letters 22, 86-94.] and compare our results in a careful evaluation with the sparse existing data sets of global validity, i.e. the Bonaparte Gulf record [Yokoyama, Y., Lambeck, K., DeDeckker, P., Johnston, P., Fifield, L.K., 2000. Timing of the Last Glacial Maximum from observed sea-level minima. Nature 406, 713-716.; Yokoyama, Y., De Deckker, P., Lambeck, K., Johnston, P., Fifield, L.K., 2001. Sea-level at the Last Glacial Maximum: evidence from nortwestern Australia to constrain ice volumes for oxygen isotope stage 2. Paleogeography Paleoclimatology Paleoecology 165, 281-297.], the Barbados coral record [Fairbanks, R.G., 1989. A 17,000-year glacio-eustatic sea level record: influence of glacial melting dates on the Younger Dryas event and deep ocean circulation. Nature 342, 637-642.; Peltier, W.R., Fairbanks, R.G., 2006. Global glacial ice volume and Last Glacial Maximum duration from an extended Barbados sea level record. Quaternary Science Reviews 25 (23-24), 3322-3337.] and the latest numerical model of continental deglaciation [Peltier, W.R., Fairbanks, R.G., 2006. Global glacial ice volume and Last Glacial Maximum duration from an extended Barbados sea level record. Quaternary Science Reviews 25 (23-24), 3322-3337.]. Sea level seems to have been lower shortly prior to the conventional Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21-19 cal kyr BP). The time interval around this glacial lowstand is not covered by ages from the Sunda Shelf, but documented by an ancient barrier — tidal-flat system. These palaeo-coastal relict forms indicate such an early lowstand some 5 m deeper than sea level was during LGM times. The LGM sea level on the Sunda shelf is recalculated to - 123 ± 2 m modern water depth. This depth fits nicely with the lowstand data derived from Barbados and the Bonaparte Gulf. The recently assumed 19-kyr sea-level rise is supported by the Sunda and Bonaparte data sets combined, although it might have started already as early as at 19.6 cal kyr BP lasting for some 800 kyr with an amplitude of at least 10 m. This early pulse-like rise might have played a crucial role in the physical preservation of the high-glacial to early deglacial deposits on the Sunda Shelf. The modelled sea-level history is, thus, supported with respect to an initial high-glacial lowstand prior to the LGM, which might be in apparent contrast to observations from Bonaparte. Nevertheless, field data suggest a glacial sea-level evolution about 10 m deeper than the model. Also, the gradual rising trend from 26 to 16 cal kyr BP, as deduced from the model, can definitively not be approved by any field data. However, our knowledge is still unsatisfactory and an expansion of field data from suited areas is urgently needed.

Physical and Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Low Probability Flooding Events on Coastal Communities

PubMed Central

Prime, Thomas; Brown, Jennifer M.; Plater, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to “surge alone” event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as “brick course” maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community. PMID:25710497

Physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise and low probability flooding events on coastal communities.

PubMed

Prime, Thomas; Brown, Jennifer M; Plater, Andrew J

2015-01-01

Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to "surge alone" event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as "brick course" maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community.

Implementation of Black Sea numerical model based on NEMO and 3DVAR data assimilation scheme for operational forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciliberti, Stefania Angela; Peneva, Elisaveta; Storto, Andrea; Rostislav, Kandilarov; Lecci, Rita; Yang, Chunxue; Coppini, Giovanni; Masina, Simona; Pinardi, Nadia

2016-04-01

This study describes a new model implementation for the Black Sea, which uses data assimilation, towards operational forecasting, based on NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean, Madec et al., 2012). The Black Sea domain is resolved with 1/27°×1/36° horizontal resolution (~3 km) and 31 z-levels with partial steps based on the GEBCO bathymetry data (Grayek et al., 2010). The model is forced by momentum, water and heat fluxes interactively computed by bulk formulae using high resolution atmospheric forcing provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast (ECMWF). The initial condition is calculated from long-term climatological temperature and salinity 3D fields. Precipitation field over the basin has been computed from the climatological GPCP rainfall monthly data (Adler et al., 2003; Huffman et al., 2009), while the evaporation is derived from the latent heat flux. The climatological monthly mean runoff of the major rivers in the Black Sea is computed using the hydrological dataset provided by SESAME project (Ludvig et al., 2009). The exchange with Mediterranean Sea through the Bosporus Straits is represented by a surface boundary condition taking into account the barotropic transport calculated to balance the fresh water fluxes on monthly bases (Stanev and Beckers, 1999, Peneva et al., 2001). A multi-annual run 2011-2015 has been completed in order to describe the main characteristics of the Black Sea circulation dynamics and thermohaline structure and the numerical results have been validated using in-situ (ARGO) and satellite (SST, SLA) data. The Black Sea model represents also the core of the new Black Sea Forecasting System, implemented at CMCC operationally since January 2016, which produces at daily frequency 10-day forecasts, 3-days analyses and 1-day simulation. Once a week, the system is run 15-day in the past in analysis mode to compute the new optimal initial condition for the forecast cycle. The assimilation is performed by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (3DVAR) that ingests all hydrographic profiles (mostly ARGO floats), sea level anomaly data from available altimetry missions and sea surface temperature measurements retrieved from infrared sensors on-board polar-orbiting satellites (Storto et al., 2014). All the data are taken from the CMEMS catalogue. The 3DVAR system implements a recursive filter to model horizontal correlations while vertical covariances are formulated through multivariate empirical orthogonal functions. The system produces hourly and daily means for temperature, salinity, currents and sea surface height with online validation against satellite observations for SST and in-situ ARGO measurements. Grayek, S., Stanev, E., Kandilarov, R., 2010. On the response of Black Sea level to external forcing: altimeter data and numerical modelling. Ocean Dyn. 60, 123-140. Ludwig W., E. Dumont, M. Meybeck, and S. Heussner, 2009. River discharges of water and nutrients to the Mediterranean and Black Sea: Major drivers for ecosystem changes during past and future decades? Progress in Oceanography, 80, 199-217. Peneva, E. L., E. Stanev, V. Belokopytov, and P.Y. Le Traon, 2001. Water transport in the Bosporus Straits estimated from hydro-meteorologycal and altimeter data: Seasonal to decadal variability. J. Mar. Sys., 31, 1-3, 21-35. Stanev E. and J.M. Beckers, 1999. Barotropic and baroclinic oscillations in strongly stratified ocean basins: Numerical study of the Black Sea. Journal of Marine Systems, 19, 65-112. Storto A., Masina S., Dobricic S., 2014. Estimation and impact of nonuniform horizontal correlation length scales for Global Ocean physical analyses. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 31: 2330-2349.

Do we have to take an acceleration of sea level rise into account?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dillingh, D.; Baart, F.; de Ronde, J.

2012-04-01

In view of preservation of safety against inundation and of the many values and functions of the coastal zone, coastal retreat is no longer acceptable. That is why it was decided to maintain the Dutch coastline on its position in 1990. Later the preservation concept was extended to the Dutch coastal foundation, which is the area that encompasses all dune area's and hard sea defences and reaches seawards until the 20m depth contour line. Present Dutch coastal policy is to grow with sea level by means of sand nourishments. A main issue for the planning of sand nourishments is the rate of sea level rise, because that is the main parameter for the volume of the sand needed. The question is than relevant if we already have to take into account an acceleration of sea level rise. Six stations with long water level records, well spread along the Dutch coast, were analysed. Correction of the measured data was considered necessary for an adaptation of the NAP in 2005 as a consequence of movements of the top of the pleistoceen, on which the NAP bench marks have been founded, and for the 18.6 year (nodal) cycle in the time series of yearly mean sea levels. It has been concluded that along the Dutch coast no significant acceleration of sea level rise could be detected yet. Over the last 120 years sea level rose with an average speed of 19 cm per century relative to NAP (the Dutch ordnance datum). Time series shorter than about 50 years showed less robust estimates of sea level rise. Future sea level rise also needs consideration in view of the estimate of future sand nourishment volumes. Scenario's for sea level rise have been derived for the years 2050 and 2100 relative to 1990 by the KNMI (Dutch Met Office) in 2006 for the Dutch situation. Plausible curves have been drawn from 1990 tangent to the linear regression line in 1990 and forced through the high and low scenario projections for 2050 and 2100. These curves show discrepancies with measurements of the last decade, particularly for the high scenario. Dutch design levels for coastal water defence structures (dikes and dunes) are based on extreme value statistics of long time series of high water levels. These design levels have typically return periods of 2000, 4000 and 10.000 years, depending on the importance of the protected dike ring. The last statistical analysis for the update of the design levels refers to the sea level situation of 1985. According to the Water Act Dutch design levels must be tested periodically (every 6 years). Due to sea level rise and tidal changes the design levels are corrected for the rise of the mean high waters from 1985 until the end of the testing period under consideration. This demands a tailoring approach for different regions or locations instead of a national average as for coastal preservation. Runs with climate models and coupled hydrodynamic models in the framework of the Essence project and the Delta Committee 2008 showed no indication for a change in the statistics of extreme storm surge levels. For the estimation of sea level rise over the last 120 years a linear regression gives the most robust estimate. Showing decadal variability needs more sophisticated models. For the last update of the design levels the elegant Whittaker smoother has been applied. Dutch policy prescribes to account for a future sea level rise of 60 cm per century for the design of new dikes or dike reinforcements and 85 cm per century for the long term (200 years) allocation of space for future reinforcements, in agreement with the KNMI'06 scenario's for sea level rise (central value and upper limit).

Landfast Sea Ice Breakouts: Stabilizing Ice Features, Oceanic and Atmospheric Forcing at Barrow, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J.; Eicken, H.; Mahoney, A. R.; MV, R.; Kambhamettu, C.; Fukamachi, Y.; Ohshima, K. I.; George, C.

2016-12-01

Landfast sea ice is an important seasonal feature along most Arctic coastlines, such as that of the Chukchi Sea near Barrow, Alaska. Its stability throughout the ice season is determined by many factors but grounded pressure ridges are the primary stabilizing component. Landfast ice breakouts occur when these grounded ridges fail or unground, and previously stationary ice detaches from the coast and drifts away. Using ground-based radar imagery from a coastal ice and ocean observatory at Barrow, we have developed a method to estimate the extent of grounded ridges by tracking ice motion and deformation over the course of winter and have derived ice keel depth and potential for grounding from cumulative convergent ice motion. Estimates of landfast ice grounding strength have been compared to the atmospheric and oceanic stresses acting on the landfast ice before and during breakout events to determine prevailing causes for the failure of stabilizing features. Applying this approach to two case studies in 2008 and 2010, we conclude that a combination of atmospheric and oceanic stresses may have caused the breakouts analyzed in this study, with the latter as the dominant force. Preconditioning (as weakening) of grounded ridges by sea level variations may facilitate failure of the ice sheet leading to breakout events.

Landfast sea ice breakouts: Stabilizing ice features, oceanic and atmospheric forcing at Barrow, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Joshua; Eicken, Hajo; Mahoney, Andrew; MV, Rohith; Kambhamettu, Chandra; Fukamachi, Yasushi; Ohshima, Kay I.; George, J. Craig

2016-09-01

Landfast sea ice is an important seasonal feature along most Arctic coastlines, such as that of the Chukchi Sea near Barrow, Alaska. Its stability throughout the ice season is determined by many factors but grounded pressure ridges are the primary stabilizing component. Landfast ice breakouts occur when these grounded ridges fail or unground, and previously stationary ice detaches from the coast and drifts away. Using ground-based radar imagery from a coastal ice and ocean observatory at Barrow, we have developed a method to estimate the extent of grounded ridges by tracking ice motion and deformation over the course of winter and have derived ice keel depth and potential for grounding from cumulative convergent ice motion. Estimates of landfast ice grounding strength have been compared to the atmospheric and oceanic stresses acting on the landfast ice before and during breakout events to determine prevailing causes for the failure of stabilizing features. Applying this approach to two case studies in 2008 and 2010, we conclude that a combination of atmospheric and oceanic stresses may have caused the breakouts analyzed in this study, with the latter as the dominant force. Preconditioning (as weakening) of grounded ridges by sea level variations may facilitate failure of the ice sheet leading to breakout events.

ISMIP6 - initMIP: Greenland ice sheet model initialisation experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, Heiko; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Tony; Larour, Eric; Abe Ouchi, Ayako; Gregory, Jonathan; Lipscomb, William; Seroussi, Helene; Shepherd, Andrew; Edwards, Tamsin

2016-04-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. This intercomparison exercise (initMIP) aims at comparing, evaluating and improving the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). The experiments are conceived for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet and are designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The latter experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss first results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin H.

2017-12-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kopp, Robert E.; DeConto, Robert M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Hay, Carling C.; Horton, Radley M.; Kulp, Scott; Oppenheimer, Michael; Pollard, David; Strauss, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Mechanisms such as ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice-cliff collapse may rapidly increase discharge from marine-based ice sheets. Here, we link a probabilistic framework for sea-level projections to a small ensemble of Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) simulations incorporating these physical processes to explore their influence on global-mean sea-level (GMSL) and relative sea-level (RSL). We compare the new projections to past results using expert assessment and structured expert elicitation about AIS changes. Under high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5), median projected 21st century GMSL rise increases from 79 to 146 cm. Without protective measures, revised median RSL projections would by 2100 submerge land currently home to 153 million people, an increase of 44 million. The use of a physical model, rather than simple parameterizations assuming constant acceleration of ice loss, increases forcing sensitivity: overlap between the central 90% of simulations for 2100 for RCP 8.5 (93-243 cm) and RCP 2.6 (26-98 cm) is minimal. By 2300, the gap between median GMSL estimates for RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 reaches >10 m, with median RSL projections for RCP 8.5 jeopardizing land now occupied by 950 million people (versus 167 million for RCP 2.6). The minimal correlation between the contribution of AIS to GMSL by 2050 and that in 2100 and beyond implies current sea-level observations cannot exclude future extreme outcomes. The sensitivity of post-2050 projections to deeply uncertain physics highlights the need for robust decision and adaptive management frameworks.

Contributions of the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components to the tropical Atlantic SST bias in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Z.; Lee, S. K.; Wang, C.; Kirtman, B. P.; Qiao, F.

2016-02-01

In order to identify and quantify intrinsic errors in the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and their contributions to the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias in CESM1, we propose a new method of diagnosis and apply it to a set of CESM1 simulations. Our analyses of the model simulations indicate that both the atmosphere-land and ocean-sea ice model components of CESM1 contain large errors in the tropical Atlantic. When the two model components are fully coupled, the intrinsic errors in the two components emerge quickly within a year with strong seasonality in their growth rates. In particular, the ocean-sea ice model contributes significantly in forcing the eastern equatorial Atlantic warm SST bias in early boreal summer. Further analysis shows that the upper thermocline water underneath the eastern equatorial Atlantic surface mixed layer is too warm in a stand-alone ocean-sea ice simulation of CESM1 forced with observed surface flux fields, suggesting that the mixed layer cooling associated with the entrainment of upper thermocline water is too weak in early boreal summer. Therefore, although we acknowledge the potential importance of the westerly wind bias in the western equatorial Atlantic and the low-level stratus cloud bias in the southeastern tropical Atlantic, both of which originate from the atmosphere-land model, we emphasize here that solving those problems in the atmosphere-land model alone does not resolve the equatorial Atlantic warm bias in CESM1.

Oceanic Forcing of Ice-Sheet Retreat: West Antarctica and More

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alley, Richard B.; Anandakrishnan, Sridhar; Christianson, Knut; Horgan, Huw J.; Muto, Atsu; Parizek, Byron R.; Pollard, David; Walker, Ryan T.

2015-05-01

Ocean-ice interactions have exerted primary control on the Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and will continue to do so in the near future, especially through melting of ice shelves and calving cliffs. Retreat in response to increasing marine melting typically exhibits threshold behavior, with little change for forcing below the threshold but a rapid, possibly delayed shift to a reduced state once the threshold is exceeded. For Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, the threshold may already have been exceeded, although rapid change may be delayed by centuries, and the reduced state will likely involve loss of most of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, causing >3 m of sea-level rise. Because of shortcomings in physical understanding and available data, uncertainty persists about this threshold and the subsequent rate of change. Although sea-level histories and physical understanding allow the possibility that ice-sheet response could be quite fast, no strong constraints are yet available on the worst-case scenario. Recent work also suggests that the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets share some of the same vulnerabilities to shrinkage from marine influence.

Assessing coastal flood risk and sea level rise impacts at New York City area airports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohman, K. A.; Kimball, N.; Osler, M.; Eberbach, S.

2014-12-01

Flood risk and sea level rise impacts were assessed for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ) at four airports in the New York City area. These airports included John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, Newark International, and Teterboro Airports. Quantifying both present day and future flood risk due to climate change and developing flood mitigation alternatives is crucial for the continued operation of these airports. During Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 all four airports were forced to shut down, in part due to coastal flooding. Future climate change and sea level rise effects may result in more frequent shutdowns and disruptions in travel to and from these busy airports. The study examined the effects of the 1%-annual-chance coastal flooding event for present day existing conditions and six different sea level rise scenarios at each airport. Storm surge model outputs from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provided the present day storm surge conditions. 50th and 90thpercentile sea level rise projections from the New York Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) 2013 report were incorporated into storm surge results using linear superposition methods. These projections were evaluated for future years 2025, 2035, and 2055. In addition to the linear superposition approach for storm surge at airports where waves are a potential hazard, one dimensional wave modeling was performed to get the total water level results. Flood hazard and flood depth maps were created based on these results. In addition to assessing overall flooding at each airport, major at-risk infrastructure critical to the continued operation of the airport was identified and a detailed flood vulnerability assessment was performed. This assessment quantified flood impacts in terms of potential critical infrastructure inundation and developed mitigation alternatives to adapt to coastal flooding and future sea level changes. Results from this project are advancing the PANYNJ's understanding of the effects of sea level rise on coastal flooding at the airports and guiding decision-making in the selection of effective adaptation actions. Given the importance of these airports to transportation, this project is advancing security and continuity of national and international commerce well into the 21st century.

The Anthropocene and the international law of the sea.

PubMed

Vidas, Davor

2011-03-13

The current law of the sea provides a framework for various specific issues, but is incapable of responding adequately to the overall challenges facing humankind, now conceivably already living in the Anthropocene. The linkages between the development of the law of the sea and the current process towards formal recognition of an Anthropocene epoch are twofold. First, there is a linkage of origin. The ideological foundations of the law of the sea facilitated the emergence of forces that were to lead to the Industrial Revolution and, eventually, to levels of development entailing ever-greater human impacts on the Earth System. Second, there are linkages in interaction. Geological information has prompted key developments in the law of the sea since the introduction of the continental shelf concept in the mid-twentieth century. With the formalization of the Anthropocene epoch, geology might again act as a trigger for new developments needed in the law of the sea. This article explores those two aspects of linkages and examines prospects for further development of the law of the sea framework, through concepts such as the responsibility for the seas as well as those related to new approaches to global sustainability such as the 'planetary boundaries'.

Implications of sea level rise scenarios on land use /land cover classes of the coastal zones of Cochin, India.

PubMed

Mani Murali, R; Dinesh Kumar, P K

2015-01-15

Physical responses of the coastal zones in the vicinity of Cochin, India due to sea level rise are investigated based on analysis of inundation scenarios. Quantification of potential habitat loss was made by merging the Land use/Land cover (LU/LC) prepared from the satellite imagery with the digital elevation model. Scenarios were generated for two different rates of sea level rise and responses of changes occurred were made to ascertain the vulnerability and loss in extent. LU/LC classes overlaid on 1 m and 2 m elevation showed that it was mostly covered by vegetation areas followed by water and urban zones. For the sea level rise scenarios of 1 m and 2 m, the total inundation zones were estimated to be 169.11 km(2) and 598.83 km(2) respectively using Geographic Information System (GIS). The losses of urban areas were estimated at 43 km(2) and 187 km(2) for the 1 m and 2 m sea level rise respectively which is alarming information for the most densely populated state of India. Quantitative comparison of other LU/LC classes showed significant changes under each of the inundation scenarios. The results obtained conclusively point that sea level rise scenarios will bring profound effects on the land use and land cover classes as well as on coastal landforms in the study region. Coastal inundation would leave ocean front and inland properties vulnerable. Increase in these water levels would alter the coastal drainage gradients. Reduction in these gradients would increase flooding attributable to rainstorms which could promote salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers and force water tables to rise. Changes in the coastal landforms associated with inundation generate concern in the background that the coastal region may continue to remain vulnerable in the coming decades due to population growth and development pressures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean on the Antarctic Peninsula and sea ice.

PubMed

Li, Xichen; Holland, David M; Gerber, Edwin P; Yoo, Changhyun

2014-01-23

In recent decades, Antarctica has experienced pronounced climate changes. The Antarctic Peninsula exhibited the strongest warming of any region on the planet, causing rapid changes in land ice. Additionally, in contrast to the sea-ice decline over the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice has not declined, but has instead undergone a perplexing redistribution. Antarctic climate is influenced by, among other factors, changes in radiative forcing and remote Pacific climate variability, but none explains the observed Antarctic Peninsula warming or the sea-ice redistribution in austral winter. However, in the north and tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a leading mode of sea surface temperature variability) has been overlooked in this context. Here we show that sea surface warming related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation reduces the surface pressure in the Amundsen Sea and contributes to the observed dipole-like sea-ice redistribution between the Ross and Amundsen-Bellingshausen-Weddell seas and to the Antarctic Peninsula warming. Support for these findings comes from analysis of observational and reanalysis data, and independently from both comprehensive and idealized atmospheric model simulations. We suggest that the north and tropical Atlantic is important for projections of future climate change in Antarctica, and has the potential to affect the global thermohaline circulation and sea-level change.

Increasing Influence of Societal Response Variables in Coastal Evolution Projections (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayes, P. T.; McCoy, C. A.; Pietrafesa, L. J.

2010-12-01

Recent efforts to project changes in coastal erosion and vulnerability of the state of South Carolina’s (SC’s) oceanfront for different scenarios of future sea level have reinforced the significance of the influence of societal modifications and response to past and anticipated coastal change in these systems. For large reaches of the SC coast human interactions have been a dominant signal driving coastal change across annual to decadal scales. Over the last 20 years, SC’s shoreline has been advanced seawards in many areas due to a combination of sustained societal commitment to beach nourishment and to a lull in atmospheric storms; reversing the long-term erosional trend of shoreline change. Adjacent areas not yet threatened or where coastal defense is unsupported economically have continued to migrate landwards. Locally, efforts focused on stabilizing the subaerial beach have not moderated long-term shoreward migration of the shoreface changing the overall morphology of the coastal boundary waves and currents are operating against. These societal effects, coupled with realistic, substative assessments of future atmospheric storm activity and sea level variability, both over scales of seasons to multi-decades, require consideration to realistically project future coastal behavior across time and spatial scales for planning and resource management. As with future climate and sea level variability effects on the shoreline, the scale and intensity of societal response is not static or precisely projected spatially and temporally into the future. With continued expansion of coastal development and erosion into previously lightly developed and defended coastal areas, societal influences should be expected to increase. Increasing cost of larger scale defenses will likely drive pressure for hardened structures to enhance ”softer” nourishment strategies. However, this strategy would further modify the ability of nature to respond to natural forces. Nourishment programs are strongly cyclic and can act in or out of phase with natural cyclic (inlet migration, sea level variability) or stochastic (storms) drivers with significant effects on coastal response and predictions of coastal behavior. Economic cycles and events may similarly moderate timing and scale of coastal defense relative to natural drivers. Societal decisions to not, enhance and or even abandon and remove existing engineering structures as future forces and costs increase, can result in a disproportional response and potentially failure of a section of coast. Some communities have expressed confidence in the ability to maintain the oceanfront shoreline against most projections of sea level rise over the next 100 years. The long-term trend in sea level change may be less important than naturally occurring regional scale, seasonal to inter-annual to multi-decadal variability in sea level; and these are complex but deterministic. There is less confidence, however, in the ability to combat passive submergence and associated flooding issues behind the immediate oceanfront. To the extent that may influence commitment to defend the oceanfront could strongly influence coastal behavior and stability in the long term.

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Blackport, R.

2016-12-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them.

Forecasting sea cliff retreat in Southern California using process-based models and artificial neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limber, P. W.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.

2016-02-01

Modeling coastal geomorphic change over multi-decadal time and regional spatial scales (i.e. >20 km alongshore) is in high demand due to rising global sea levels and heavily populated coastal zones, but is challenging for several reasons: adequate geomorphic and oceanographic data often does not exist over the entire study area or time period; models can be too computationally expensive; and model uncertainty is high. In the absence of rich datasets and unlimited computer processing power, researchers are forced to leverage existing data, however sparse, and find analytical methods that minimize computation time without sacrificing (too much) model reliability. Machine learning techniques, such as artificial neural networks, can assimilate and efficiently extrapolate geomorphic model behavior over large areas. They can also facilitate ensemble model forecasts over a broad range of parameter space, which is useful when a paucity of observational data inhibits the constraint of model parameters. Here, we assimilate the behavior of two established process-based sea cliff erosion and retreat models into a neural network to forecast the impacts of sea level rise on sea cliff retreat in Southern California ( 400 km) through the 21st century. Using inputs such as historical cliff retreat rates, mean wave power, and whether or not a beach is present, the neural network independently reproduces modeled sea cliff retreat as a function of sea level rise with a high degree of confidence (R2 > 0.9, mean squared error < 0.1 m yr-1). Results will continuously improve as more model scenarios are assimilated into the neural network, and more field data (i.e., cliff composition and rock hardness) becomes available to tune the cliff retreat models. Preliminary results suggest that sea level rise rates of 2 to 20 mm yr-1 during the next century could accelerate historical cliff retreat rates in Southern California by an average of 0.10 - 0.56 m yr-1.

Navy-Marine Corps Amphibious and Maritime Prepositioning Ship Programs: Background and Oversight Issues for Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-26

FY2008. Although the Navy’s proposed force of 31 amphibious ships includes 10 LPD-17 class ships, the Navy is planning to end LPD-17 procurement in...expresses concerns about the planned reduction in amphibious ships, the sea basing concept, and the MPF(F) program, and requires a report on sea basing...Ship Force Structure Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Sea Basing Concept of Operations

KSC-08pd1613

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II second stage is lowered inside the mobile service tower toward the opening above the first stage. The second stage will be mated to the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1317

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, workers on Space Launch Complex 2 prepare to raise the Delta II first stage of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. Once it is vertical, the first stage will be transferred into the mobile service tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1320

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage is being raised to a vertical position in front of the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2. Once it is vertical, the first stage will be transferred into the tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1318

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, workers prepare the equipment on Space Launch Complex 2 to raise the Delta II first stage of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. Once it is vertical, the first stage will be transferred into the mobile service tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1340

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the second solid rocket motor, or SRM, is moved into place alongside the Delta II first stage. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1333

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, a solid rocket motor, or SRM, is lifted alongside the mobile service tower. The SRM will be moved inside the tower and attached to the Delta II first stage, which is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1313

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- In pre-dawn hours at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the mobile service tower/umbilical tower and launcher on Space Launch Complex 2 are being prepared for the arrival of the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1316

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft arrives at the base of the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2. The first stage will be raised to vertical and lifted into the tower. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1315

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft arrives on Space Launch Complex 2. The first stage will be raised to vertical and lifted into the mobile service tower (behind it, at left). The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1609

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-05-05

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- Workers on Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California prepare to attach a sling crane onto the Delta II second stage. The sling will lift the second stage into the mobile service tower for installation on the first stage for launch of the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched on June 20. Photo credit: NASA

KSC-08pd1329

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- The first solid rocket motor arrives on Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. It will be attached to the Delta II first stage inside the mobile service tower. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1325

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the mobile service tower with the Delta II first stage moves closer to the umbilical tower/launcher at right. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1323

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage is ready to be lifted into the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Timing of insolation forcing, CO2 and sea level changes around the current and last four interglacial periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamura, K.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.

2013-12-01

Investigation of the roles of different forcings (e.g. orbital variations and greenhouse gases) on climate and sea level requires a paleoclimate chronology with high accuracy. Such a chronology for the past 360 ky was constructed through orbital tuning of O2/N2 ratio of trapped air in the Dome Fuji and Vostok ice cores with local summer insolation (Kawamura et al., 2007). We extend the O2/N2 chronology back to ~500 kyr by analyzing the second Dome Fuji ice core, and find the duration of 11 ka, 5 ka, 9 ka, and 20 ka for MIS 5e, 7e, 9e and 11c interglacial periods in Antarctica, with similar variations in atmospheric CO2. The termination timings are consistent with the rising phase of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Marine sediment cores from northern North Atlantic contain millennial-scale signatures in various proxy records (e.g. SST, IRD), including abrupt climatic shifts and bipolar seesaw. Based on the bipolar correlation of millennial-scale events, it is possible to transfer our accurate chronology to marine cores from the North Atlantic. As a first attempt, we correlate the planktonic δ18O and IRD records from the marine core ODP 980 with the ice-core δ18O and CH4 around MIS 11. We find that the durations of interglacial plateaus of planktonic δ18O (proxy for sea surface environments) and benthic δ18O (proxy for ice volume and deep-sea temperature) for MIS 11c are 20 and 15 ka, respectively, which are significantly shorter than originally suggested. These durations are similar to that of Antarctic climate and atmospheric CO2. However, the onsets of interglacial levels in ODP980 for MIS 11 are significantly later than those in Antarctic δ18O and atmospheric CO2 (by as much as ~10 ka), suggesting very long duration (more than one precession cycle) for the complete deglaciation and northern high-latitude warming for Termination V. Atmospheric CO2 may have been the critical forcing for this termination. The long duration of Termination V is consistent with our new ice sheet simulations (extended from the work of Abe-Ouchi et al., 2013) in which an ice-sheet/climate model is forced by insolation and CO2 variations. In the presentation, comparisons for other interglacial periods will also be reported.

Evolution of Holocene fluvio-deltaic systems along the Mississippi-Alabama Shelf, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dike, C.; Wallace, D. J.; Miner, M. D.

2017-12-01

Understanding the response of coastal systems to past sea-level rise is paramount to better predicting future scenarios and identifying suitable sand resources for coastal restoration. The Mississippi-Alabama (MS-AL) shelf is an ideal natural laboratory to examine this in detail as there are multiple rivers that discharge into the Mississippi Sound, which is ultimately connected with the Gulf of Mexico. These systems include the Pascagoula, Biloxi, Pearl, and Mobile Rivers, which transport sediment from a combined drainage basin area of 270,000 km2. During the most recent sea-level lowstand, fluvial downcutting produced valley systems that bypassed the exposed shelf producing shelf-edge deltas. During the subsequent transgression, portions of these fluvio-deltaic systems were reworked and generally back-stepped in response to forcing mechanisms (i.e. rate of relative sea-level rise, sediment supply, and accommodation space). The sediment produced from this partial transgressive ravinement likely played a key role in forming the modern barrier islands along the MS-AL chain. While many of the general locations of lowstand valleys and deltas have been previously published, the chronology of valley occupation and infilling, and the detailed response to forcing mechanisms of these paleo-fluvial systems remain largely unclear. Further, the stratigraphic architecture and character of these deposits comprising the lowstand valley fill remains enigmatic due to sparse data coverage. Here we synthesize and analyze prior geophysical data from seven cruises conducted since the mid-1980s. We will present the current knowledge of these fluvial deltaic systems from the shelf slope to modern descendants in the northern Gulf of Mexico, relying on a source-to-sink approach. These shelf deposits not only represent important sand resources to this storm-prone coast, but will also shed light on the nature of the response of these systems to coastal change forcing mechanisms.

Physical and Biological Controls on the Carbonate Chemistry of Coral Reef Waters: Effects of Metabolism, Wave Forcing, Sea Level, and Geomorphology

PubMed Central

Falter, James L.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Zhang, Zhenlin; McCulloch, Malcolm

2013-01-01

We present a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of a wave-driven coral-reef lagoon system using the circulation model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled with the wave transformation model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). Simulations were used to explore the sensitivity of water column carbonate chemistry across the reef system to variations in benthic reef metabolism, wave forcing, sea level, and system geomorphology. Our results show that changes in reef-water carbonate chemistry depend primarily on the ratio of benthic metabolism to the square root of the onshore wave energy flux as well as on the length and depth of the reef flat; however, they are only weakly dependent on channel geometry and the total frictional resistance of the reef system. Diurnal variations in pCO2, pH, and aragonite saturation state (Ωar) are primarily dependent on changes in net production and are relatively insensitive to changes in net calcification; however, net changes in pCO2, pH, and Ωar are more strongly influenced by net calcification when averaged over 24 hours. We also demonstrate that a relatively simple one-dimensional analytical model can provide a good description of the functional dependence of reef-water carbonate chemistry on benthic metabolism, wave forcing, sea level, reef flat morphology, and total system frictional resistance. Importantly, our results indicate that any long-term (weeks to months) net offsets in reef-water pCO2 relative to offshore values should be modest for reef systems with narrow and/or deep lagoons. Thus, the long-term evolution of water column pCO2 in many reef environments remains intimately connected to the regional-scale oceanography of offshore waters and hence directly influenced by rapid anthropogenically driven increases in pCO2. PMID:23326411

Physical and biological controls on the carbonate chemistry of coral reef waters: effects of metabolism, wave forcing, sea level, and geomorphology.

PubMed

Falter, James L; Lowe, Ryan J; Zhang, Zhenlin; McCulloch, Malcolm

2013-01-01

We present a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model of a wave-driven coral-reef lagoon system using the circulation model ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled with the wave transformation model SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore). Simulations were used to explore the sensitivity of water column carbonate chemistry across the reef system to variations in benthic reef metabolism, wave forcing, sea level, and system geomorphology. Our results show that changes in reef-water carbonate chemistry depend primarily on the ratio of benthic metabolism to the square root of the onshore wave energy flux as well as on the length and depth of the reef flat; however, they are only weakly dependent on channel geometry and the total frictional resistance of the reef system. Diurnal variations in pCO(2), pH, and aragonite saturation state (Ω(ar)) are primarily dependent on changes in net production and are relatively insensitive to changes in net calcification; however, net changes in pCO(2), pH, and Ω(ar) are more strongly influenced by net calcification when averaged over 24 hours. We also demonstrate that a relatively simple one-dimensional analytical model can provide a good description of the functional dependence of reef-water carbonate chemistry on benthic metabolism, wave forcing, sea level, reef flat morphology, and total system frictional resistance. Importantly, our results indicate that any long-term (weeks to months) net offsets in reef-water pCO(2) relative to offshore values should be modest for reef systems with narrow and/or deep lagoons. Thus, the long-term evolution of water column pCO(2) in many reef environments remains intimately connected to the regional-scale oceanography of offshore waters and hence directly influenced by rapid anthropogenically driven increases in pCO(2).

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level

PubMed Central

Strauss, Benjamin H.; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

2015-01-01

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3–9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185–1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon. PMID:26460051

Carbon choices determine US cities committed to futures below sea level.

PubMed

Strauss, Benjamin H; Kulp, Scott; Levermann, Anders

2015-11-03

Anthropogenic carbon emissions lock in long-term sea-level rise that greatly exceeds projections for this century, posing profound challenges for coastal development and cultural legacies. Analysis based on previously published relationships linking emissions to warming and warming to rise indicates that unabated carbon emissions up to the year 2100 would commit an eventual global sea-level rise of 4.3-9.9 m. Based on detailed topographic and population data, local high tide lines, and regional long-term sea-level commitment for different carbon emissions and ice sheet stability scenarios, we compute the current population living on endangered land at municipal, state, and national levels within the United States. For unabated climate change, we find that land that is home to more than 20 million people is implicated and is widely distributed among different states and coasts. The total area includes 1,185-1,825 municipalities where land that is home to more than half of the current population would be affected, among them at least 21 cities exceeding 100,000 residents. Under aggressive carbon cuts, more than half of these municipalities would avoid this commitment if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet remains stable. Similarly, more than half of the US population-weighted area under threat could be spared. We provide lists of implicated cities and state populations for different emissions scenarios and with and without a certain collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Although past anthropogenic emissions already have caused sea-level commitment that will force coastal cities to adapt, future emissions will determine which areas we can continue to occupy or may have to abandon.

Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sweet, W.; Kopp, R.E.; Weaver, C.P.; Obeysekera, J; Horton, Radley M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Zervas, C.

2017-01-01

level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a keytechnical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

Simulating Dust Regional Impact on the Middle East Climate and the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osipov, Sergey; Stenchikov, Georgiy

2017-04-01

Dust is one of the most abundant aerosols, however, currently only a few regional climate downscalings account for dust. This study focuses on the Middle East and the Red Sea regional climate response to the dust aerosol radiative forcing. The Red Sea is located between North Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which are first and third largest source regions of dust, respectively. MODIS and SEVIRI satellite observations show extremely high dust optical depths in the region, especially over the southern Red Sea during the summer season. The significant north-to-south gradient of the dust optical depth over the Red Sea persists throughout the entire year. Modeled atmospheric radiative forcing at the surface, top of the atmosphere and absorption in the atmospheric column indicate that dust significantly perturbs radiative balance. Top of the atmosphere modeled forcing is validated against independently derived GERB satellite product. Due to strong radiative forcing at the sea surface (daily mean forcing during summer reaches -32 Wm-2 and 10 Wm-2 in SW and LW, respectively), using uncoupled ocean model with prescribed atmospheric boundary conditions would result in an unrealistic ocean response. Therefore, here we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of dust on the Red Sea thermal regime and circulation. The WRF was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of dust. Daily spectral optical properties of dust are computed using Mie, T-matrix, and geometric optics approaches, and are based on the SEVIRI climatological optical depth. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust causes 0.3-0.5 K cooling of the Red Sea surface waters, and weakens the overturning circulation in the Red Sea. The salinity distribution, freshwater, and heat budgets are significantly perturbed. This indicates that dust plays an important role in the formation of the Red Sea energy balance and circulation regimes, and has to be thoroughly accounted for in future modeling studies.

Impact of the spatial distribution of the atmospheric forcing on water mass formation in the Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

BéRanger, Karine; Drillet, Yann; Houssais, Marie-NoëLle; Testor, Pierre; Bourdallé-Badie, Romain; Alhammoud, Bahjat; Bozec, Alexandra; Mortier, Laurent; Bouruet-Aubertot, Pascale; CréPon, Michel

2010-12-01

The impact of the atmospheric forcing on the winter ocean convection in the Mediterranean Sea was studied with a high-resolution ocean general circulation model. The major areas of focus are the Levantine basin, the Aegean-Cretan Sea, the Adriatic Sea, and the Gulf of Lion. Two companion simulations differing by the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric forcing were compared. The first simulation (MED16-ERA40) was forced by air-sea fields from ERA40, which is the ECMWF reanalysis. The second simulation (MED16-ECMWF) was forced by the ECMWF-analyzed surface fields that have a horizontal resolution twice as high as those of ERA40. The analysis of the standard deviations of the atmospheric fields shows that increasing the resolution of the atmospheric forcing leads in all regions to a better channeling of the winds by mountains and to the generation of atmospheric mesoscale patterns. Comparing the companion ocean simulation results with available observations in the Adriatic Sea and in the Gulf of Lion shows that MED16-ECMWF is more realistic than MED16-ERA40. In the eastern Mediterranean, although deep water formation occurs in the two experiments, the depth reached by the convection is deeper in MED16-ECMWF. In the Gulf of Lion, deep water formation occurs only in MED16-ECMWF. This larger sensitivity of the western Mediterranean convection to the forcing resolution is investigated by running a set of sensitivity experiments to analyze the impact of different time-space resolutions of the forcing on the intense winter convection event in winter 1998-1999. The sensitivity to the forcing appears to be mainly related to the effect of wind channeling by the land orography, which can only be reproduced in atmospheric models of sufficient resolution. Thus, well-positioned patterns of enhanced wind stress and ocean surface heat loss are able to maintain a vigorous gyre circulation favoring efficient preconditioning of the area at the beginning of winter and to drive realistic buoyancy loss and mixing responsible for strong convection at the end of winter.

Detection of the fast Kelvin wave teleconnection due to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, Steven D.; Melsom, Arne; Mitchum, Gary T.; O'Brien, James J.

1998-11-01

Previous analyses of the ocean state along the western American coast have often indicated unexpectedly slow and limited propagation of coastally trapped Kelvin waves associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. In contrast, theoretical and numerical ocean models demonstrate that these Kelvin waves are a rapid and long-range teleconnection between the low- and high-latitude Pacific Ocean, strongly impacting both the surface coastal currents and nutrient upwelling. Sea level variations along the western coast of North America are reexamined under the assumption that tropically forced Kelvin waves are produced in bursts of several months duration. A cross-correlation analysis, restricted to mid-1982 to mid-1983, is performed between Galapagos Island and stations along western Central and North America. A coastally trapped Kelvin wave is revealed to propagate at a speed of 2-3 m s-1 from the tropical Pacific to the Aleutian Island Chain. The observed phase speed agrees with the estimated speed of a Kelvin wave based on the average density profile of the ocean near the coast. Weaker El Niño events in 1986/1987 and 1991/1992 appear to contain a combination of this remote signal and local wind forcing. The wave propagation speed calculated from the spectral phase is shown to be sensitive to the presence of other (noise) processes in the observations. This is demonstrated through an analysis of a synthetic sea level data set that contains many of the essential features of the real sea level data. A relatively small level of red noise can give a 100% expected error in the estimated propagation speed. This suggests a new explanation for this important inconsistency within dynamical oceanography.

Global Aerosol Radiative Forcing Derived from Sea WiFS-Inferred Aerosol Optical Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Ming-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Wang, Menghua

1999-01-01

Aerosol optical properties inferred from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) radiance measurements are used to compute the aerosol shortwave radiative forcing using a radiative transfer model. The aerosol optical thickness at the wavelength of 865-nm is taken from the SeaWIFS archive. It is found that the nominal optical thickness over oceans ranges from 0.1 to 0.2. Using a maritime aerosol model and the radiances measured at the various SeaWiFS channels, the Angstrom exponent is determined to be 0.2174, the single-scattering albedo to be 0.995, and the asymmetry factor to be 0.786. The radiative transfer model has eight bands in the visible and ultraviolet spectral regions and three bands in the near infrared. It includes the absorption due to aerosols, water vapor, carbon dioxide, and oxygen, and the scattering due to aerosols and gases (Rayleigh scattering). The radiative forcing is computed over global oceans for four months (January, April, July, and October, 1998) to represent four seasons. It is found that the aerosol radiative forcing is large and changes significantly with seasons near the continents with large-scale forest fires and desert dust. Averaged over oceans and the four months, the aerosol radiative forcing is approximately 7 W/sq m at the top of the atmosphere. This large radiative forcing is expected to have a significant cooling effect on the Earth's climate as implied from simulations of a number of general circulation models.

Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Marinova, Natasha; Lowe, Jason A; Brown, Sally; Vellinga, Pier; de Gusmão, Diogo; Hinkel, Jochen; Tol, Richard S J

2011-01-13

The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m--the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.

Sensitivity of grounding line dynamics to viscoelastic deformation of the solid Earth: Inferences from a fully coupled ice sheet - solid Earth model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, H.; Sasgen, I.; Thoma, M.; Klemann, V.; Grosfeld, K.; Martinec, Z.

2013-12-01

The interactions of ice sheets with the sea level and the solid Earth are important factors for the stability of the ice shelves and the tributary inland ice (e.g. Thomas and Bentley, 1978; Gomez et al, 2012). First, changes in ice extent and ice thickness induce viscoelastic deformation of the Earth surface and Earth's gravity field. In turn, global and local changes in sea level and bathymetry affect the grounding line and, subsequently, alter the ice dynamic behaviour. Here, we investigate these feedbacks for a synthetic ice sheet configuration as well as for the Antarctic ice sheet using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet and shelf model, coupled to a viscoelastic solid-Earth and gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model. The respective ice sheet undergoes a forcing from rising sea level, warming ocean, and/or changing surface mass balance. The coupling is realized by exchanging ice thickness, Earth surface deformation, and sea level periodically. We apply several sets of viscoelastic Earth parameters to our coupled model, e.g. simulating a low-viscous upper mantle present at the Antarctic Peninsula (Ivins et al., 2011). Special focus of our study lies on the evolution of Earth surface deformation and local sea level changes, as well as on the accompanying grounding line evolution. N. Gomez, D. Pollard, J. X. Mitrovica, P. Huybers, and P. U. Clark 2012. Evolution of a coupled marine ice sheet-sea level model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, F01013, doi:10.1029/2011JF002128. E. R. Ivins, M. M. Watkins, D.-N. Yuan, R. Dietrich, G. Casassa, and A. Rülke 2011. On-land ice loss and glacial isostatic adjustment at the Drake Passage: 2003-2009, J. Geophys. Res. 116, B02403, doi: 10.1029/2010JB007607 R. H. Thomas and C. R. Bentley 1978. A model for Holocene retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Quaternary Research, 10 (2), pages 150-170, doi: 10.1016/0033-5894(78)90098-4.

Last 900 ka river longprofile changes controlled by Yoro fault activity and glacial sea-level changes, Nobi plain, central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugai, T.; Sato, T.

2015-12-01

This paper compared grain size, thickness, and lithological character of ten fluvial gravel layers formed during the glacial sea-level lowstands intervening inner bay mud layers deposited during the interglacial marine transgressional periods since the last 900 ka by integrated analyses of sediment cores including 600 m deep onein the Nobi plain, central Japan. Linkages between river long profile changes and sea-level and climate changes will be discussed. The Nobi basin is one of the representative delta type alluvial lowlands in Japan dominated by longitudinal drainage system named Kiso river system flowing southward from central Japan Alps with abundant water and sediment discharges. The basin bounded by the Yoro fault on the west has been tilted westward by the repetitive faulting activity. The basin stratigraphy and its stacking patterns suggest uniform and rapid subsidence and tilting rates of the basin with the maximum value of 1 mm yr-1 and 10-4 kyr-1 respectively produced by the Yoro fault activity under the W-E compressional regional stress field during the middle and late Quaternary periods. Tephrochronological, paleomagnetic, geochemical, and diatom analyses enabled to identify ten times repeated marine transgression-regression sequences correlated with full glacial-interglacial sea-level changes during the last 900 ka. All of the ten sequence boundaries were characterized by fluvial gravel layers were formed by the Kiso river system. The mean maximum gravel size is proportional to the magnitude of sea level lowering inferred from MIS curve, i.e. gravels deposited in MIS 12 and 16 are the largest, and those in MIS 14 and 8 are the smallest since MIS 16. This suggests that the longitudinal profile of the Kiso river system has been adjusting to the sea level changes and that the steeper longitudinal profile formed in the lower sea level periods can transport larger gravels to the drilling sites. In fact the present river bed gravel size is in proportion with the tractive force and mainly controlled by slope of the rive long-profile.

Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhigang; Xue, Zuo; He, Ruoying; Bao, Xianwen; Xie, Jun; Ge, Qian

2017-02-01

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate's impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system (ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7-10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model's robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry (PI) and the other for the A1FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.

Regional sea level variability in a high-resolution global coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palko, D.; Kirtman, B. P.

2016-12-01

The prediction of trends at regional scales is essential in order to adapt to and prepare for the effects of climate change. However, GCMs are unable to make reliable predictions at regional scales. The prediction of local sea level trends is particularly critical. The main goal of this research is to utilize high-resolution (HR) (0.1° resolution in the ocean) coupled model runs of CCSM4 to analyze regional sea surface height (SSH) trends. Unlike typical, lower resolution (1.0°) GCM runs these HR runs resolve features in the ocean, like the Gulf Stream, which may have a large effect on regional sea level. We characterize the variability of regional SSH along the Atlantic coast of the US using tide gauge observations along with fixed radiative forcing runs of CCSM4 and HR interactive ensemble runs. The interactive ensemble couples an ensemble mean atmosphere with a single ocean realization. This coupling results in a 30% decrease in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; therefore, the HR interactive ensemble is analogous to a HR hosing experiment. By characterizing the variability in these high-resolution GCM runs and observations we seek to understand what processes influence coastal SSH along the Eastern Coast of the United States and better predict future SLR.

Wind-induced circulation in a large tropical lagoon: Chetumal Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palacios, E.; Carrillo, L.

2013-05-01

Chetumal Bay is a large tropical lagoon located at the Mesoamerican Reef System. Windinduced circulation in this basin was investigated by using direct measurements of current, sea level, and 2d barotropic numerical model. Acoustic Doppler Profiler (ADP) transects covering the north of Chetumal Bay during two campaigns September 2006 and March 2007 were used. The 2d barotropic numerical model was ROMs based and wind forced. Wind information was obtained from a meteorological station located at ECOSUR Chetumal. Sea level data was collected from a pressure sensor deployed in the lagoon. A seasonal pattern of circulation was observed. From observations, during September 2006, a northward flow was shown in most part of the bay and a southward flow in the eastern coast was observed with velocities ranged from 6 cm s-1 to 36 cm s-1. In March 2007, the current pattern was more complex; divergences and converges were identified. The dominant circulation was northward in eastern portion, and southward in the central and western zone. The average current speed was 6 cm s-1 with maximum values of 26 -34 cm s-1. During September 2006 predominant wind was easternsoutheastern and during March 2007, northerly wind events were recorded. Sea level amplitude responded quickly to changes in the magnitude and direction of the wind. Results of sea level and circulation from the 2d barotropic numerical model agreed with observations at first approximation.

Observations reveal external driver for Arctic sea-ice retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Notz, Dirk; Marotzke, Jochem

2012-04-01

The very low summer extent of Arctic sea ice that has been observed in recent years is often casually interpreted as an early-warning sign of anthropogenic global warming. For examining the validity of this claim, previously IPCC model simulations have been used. Here, we focus on the available observational record to examine if this record allows us to identify either internal variability, self-acceleration, or a specific external forcing as the main driver for the observed sea-ice retreat. We find that the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self-acceleration as an explanation for the observed long-term trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent sea-ice minima. Instead, the recent retreat is well described by the superposition of an externally forced linear trend and internal variability. For the externally forced trend, we find a physically plausible strong correlation only with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results hence show that the observed evolution of Arctic sea-ice extent is consistent with the claim that virtually certainly the impact of an anthropogenic climate change is observable in Arctic sea ice already today.

Dead Sea drawdown and monsoonal impacts in the Levant during the last interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torfstein, Adi; Goldstein, Steven L.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Enzel, Yehouda; Haug, Gerald; Stein, Mordechai

2015-02-01

Sediment cores recovered by the Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project (DSDDP) from the deepest basin of the hypersaline, terminal Dead Sea (lake floor at ∼725 m below mean sea level) reveal the detailed climate history of the lake's watershed during the last interglacial period (Marine Isotope Stage 5; MIS5). The results document both a more intense aridity during MIS5 than during the Holocene, and the moderating impacts derived from the intense MIS5e African Monsoon. Early MIS5e (∼133-128 ka) was dominated by hyperarid conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean-Levant, indicated by thick halite deposition triggered by a lake-level drop. Halite deposition was interrupted however, during the MIS5e peak (∼128-122 ka) by sequences of flood deposits, which are coeval with the timing of the intense precession-forced African monsoon that generated Mediterranean sapropel S5. A subsequent weakening of this humidity source triggered extreme aridity in the Dead Sea watershed and resulting in the biggest known lake level drawdown in its history, reflected by the deposition of thick salt layers, and a capping pebble layer corresponding to a hiatus at ∼116-110 ka. The DSDDP core provides the first evidence for a direct association of the African monsoon with mid subtropical latitude climate systems effecting the Dead Sea watershed. Combined with coeval deposition of Arabia and southern Negev speleothems, Arava travertines, and calcification of Red Sea corals, the evidence points to a climatically wet corridor that could have facilitated homo sapiens migration "out of Africa" during the MIS5e peak. The hyperaridity documented during MIS5e may provide an important analogue for future warming of arid regions of the Eastern Mediterranean-Levant.

Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols.

PubMed

Evan, Amato T; Kossin, James P; Chung, Chul Eddy; Ramanathan, V

2011-11-02

Throughout the year, average sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea are warm enough to support the development of tropical cyclones, but the atmospheric monsoon circulation and associated strong vertical wind shear limits cyclone development and intensification, only permitting a pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period for cyclogenesis. Thus a recent increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean is thought to be related to the weakening of the climatological vertical wind shear. At the same time, anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased sixfold since the 1930s, leading to a weakening of the southwesterly lower-level and easterly upper-level winds that define the monsoonal circulation over the Arabian Sea. In principle, this aerosol-driven circulation modification could affect tropical cyclone intensity over the Arabian Sea, but so far no such linkage has been shown. Here we report an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the period 1979-2010, and show that this change in storm strength is a consequence of a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions. We use a combination of observational, reanalysis and model data to demonstrate that the anomalous circulation, which is radiatively forced by these anthropogenic aerosols, reduces the basin-wide vertical wind shear, creating an environment more favourable for tropical cyclone intensification. Because most Arabian Sea tropical cyclones make landfall, our results suggest an additional impact on human health from regional air pollution.

The oceanography and ecology of the Ross Sea.

PubMed

Smith, Walker O; Ainley, David G; Arrigo, Kevin R; Dinniman, Michael S

2014-01-01

The continental shelf of the Ross Sea exhibits substantial variations in physical forcing, ice cover, and biological processes on a variety of time and space scales. Its circulation is characterized by advective inputs from the east and exchanges with off-shelf regions via the troughs along the northern portions. Phytoplankton biomass is greater there than anywhere else in the Antarctic, although nitrate is rarely reduced to levels below 10 μmol L(-1). Overall growth is regulated by irradiance (via ice at the surface and by the depths of the mixed layers) and iron concentrations. Apex predators reach exceptional abundances, and the world's largest colonies of Adélie and emperor penguins are found there. Krill are represented by two species (Euphausia superba near the shelf break and Euphausia crystallorophias throughout the continental shelf region). Equally important and poorly known is the Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarcticum), which is also consumed by most upper-trophic-level predators. Future changes in the Ross Sea environment will have profound and unpredictable effects on the food web.

The Oceanography and Ecology of the Ross Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Walker O.; Ainley, David G.; Arrigo, Kevin R.; Dinniman, Michael S.

2014-01-01

The continental shelf of the Ross Sea exhibits substantial variations in physical forcing, ice cover, and biological processes on a variety of time and space scales. Its circulation is characterized by advective inputs from the east and exchanges with off-shelf regions via the troughs along the northern portions. Phytoplankton biomass is greater there than anywhere else in the Antarctic, although nitrate is rarely reduced to levels below 10 μmol L-1. Overall growth is regulated by irradiance (via ice at the surface and by the depths of the mixed layers) and iron concentrations. Apex predators reach exceptional abundances, and the world's largest colonies of Adélie and emperor penguins are found there. Krill are represented by two species (Euphausia superba near the shelf break and Euphausia crystallorophias throughout the continental shelf region). Equally important and poorly known is the Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarcticum), which is also consumed by most upper-trophic-level predators. Future changes in the Ross Sea environment will have profound and unpredictable effects on the food web.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Ryan R.; Regehr, Eric V.; Rode, Karyn D.; St Martin, Michelle

2016-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears.

Mudflat morphodynamics and the impact of sea level rise in South San Francisco Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van der Wegen, Mick; Jaffe, Bruce E.; Foxgrover, Amy C.; Roelvink, Dano

2017-01-01

Estuarine tidal mudflats form unique habitats and maintain valuable ecosystems. Historic measurements of a mudflat in San Fancsico Bay over the past 150 years suggest the development of a rather stable mudflat profile. This raises questions on its origin and governing processes as well as on the mudflats’ fate under scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply. We developed a 1D morphodynamic profile model (Delft3D) that is able to reproduce the 2011 measured mudflat profile. The main, schematised, forcings of the model are a constant tidal cycle and constant wave action. The model shows that wave action suspends sediment that is transported landward during flood. A depositional front moves landward until landward bed levels are high enough to carry an equal amount of sediment back during ebb. This implies that, similar to observations, the critical shear stress for erosion is regularly exceeded during the tidal cycle and that modelled equilibrium conditions include high suspended sediment concentrations at the mudflat. Shear stresses are highest during low water, while shear stresses are lower than critical (and highest at the landward end) along the mudflat during high water. Scenarios of sea level rise and decreasing sediment supply drown the mudflat. In addition, the mudflat becomes more prone to channel incision because landward accumulation is hampered. This research suggests that sea level rise is a serious threat to the presence of many estuarine intertidal mudflats, adjacent salt marshes and their associated ecological values.

Atmospheric forcing of sea ice leads in the Beaufort Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, B. J.; Hutchings, J.; Mahoney, A. R.; Shapiro, L. H.

2016-12-01

Leads in sea ice play an important role in the polar marine environment where they allow heat and moisture transfer between the oceans and atmosphere and act as travel pathways for both marine mammals and ships. Examining AVHRR thermal imagery of the Beaufort Sea, collected between 1994 and 2010, sea ice leads appear in repeating patterns and locations (Eicken et al 2005). The leads, resolved by AVHRR, are at least 250m wide (Mahoney et al 2012), thus the patterns described are for lead systems that extend up to hundreds of kilometers across the Beaufort Sea. We describe how these patterns are associated with the location of weather systems relative to the coastline. Mean sea level pressure and 10m wind fields from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to identify if particular lead patterns can be uniquely forecast based on the location of weather systems. Ice drift data from the NSIDC's Polar Pathfinder Daily 25km EASE-Grid Sea Ice Motion Vectors indicates the role shear along leads has on the motion of ice in the Beaufort Gyre. Lead formation is driven by 4 main factors: (i) coastal features such as promontories and islands influence the origin of leads by concentrating stresses within the ice pack; (ii) direction of the wind forcing on the ice pack determines the type of fracture, (iii) the location of the anticyclone (or cyclone) center determines the length of the fracture for certain patterns; and (iv) duration of weather conditions affects the width of the ice fracture zones. Movement of the ice pack on the leeward side of leads originating at promontories and islands increases, creating shear zones that control ice transport along the Alaska coast in winter. . Understanding how atmospheric conditions influence the large-scale motion of the ice pack is needed to design models that predict variability of the gyre and export of multi-year ice to lower latitudes.

Design and validation of MEDRYS, a Mediterranean Sea reanalysis over the period 1992-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamon, Mathieu; Beuvier, Jonathan; Somot, Samuel; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Greiner, Eric; Jordà, Gabriel; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Arsouze, Thomas; Béranger, Karine; Sevault, Florence; Dubois, Clotilde; Drevillon, Marie; Drillet, Yann

2016-04-01

The French research community in the Mediterranean Sea modeling and the French operational ocean forecasting center Mercator Océan have gathered their skill and expertise in physical oceanography, ocean modeling, atmospheric forcings and data assimilation to carry out a MEDiterranean sea ReanalYsiS (MEDRYS) at high resolution for the period 1992-2013. The ocean model used is NEMOMED12, a Mediterranean configuration of NEMO with a 1/12° ( ˜ 7 km) horizontal resolution and 75 vertical z levels with partial steps. At the surface, it is forced by a new atmospheric-forcing data set (ALDERA), coming from a dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis by the regional climate model ALADIN-Climate with a 12 km horizontal and 3 h temporal resolutions. This configuration is used to carry a 34-year hindcast simulation over the period 1979-2013 (NM12-FREE), which is the initial state of the reanalysis in October 1992. MEDRYS uses the existing Mercator Océan data assimilation system SAM2 that is based on a reduced-order Kalman filter with a three-dimensional (3-D) multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. Altimeter data, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated. This paper describes the configuration we used to perform MEDRYS. We then validate the skills of the data assimilation system. It is shown that the data assimilation restores a good average temperature and salinity at intermediate layers compared to the hindcast. No particular biases are identified in the bottom layers. However, the reanalysis shows slight positive biases of 0.02 psu and 0.15 °C above 150 m depth. In the validation stage, it is also shown that the assimilation allows one to better reproduce water, heat and salt transports through the Strait of Gibraltar. Finally, the ability of the reanalysis to represent the sea surface high-frequency variability is shown.

Ecosystem responses to recent oceanographic variability in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueter, Franz J.; Broms, Cecilie; Drinkwater, Kenneth F.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Hunt, George L., Jr.; Melle, Webjørn; Taylor, Maureen

2009-04-01

As part of the international MENU collaboration, we compared and contrasted ecosystem responses to climate-forced oceanographic variability across several high latitude regions of the North Pacific (Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) and Gulf of Alaska (GOA)) and North Atlantic Oceans (Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank (GOM/GB) and the Norwegian/Barents Seas (NOR/BAR)). Differences in the nitrate content of deep source waters and incoming solar radiation largely explain differences in average primary productivity among these ecosystems. We compared trends in productivity and abundance at various trophic levels and their relationships with sea-surface temperature. Annual net primary production generally increases with annual mean sea-surface temperature between systems and within the EBS, BAR, and GOM/GB. Zooplankton biomass appears to be controlled by both top-down (predation by fish) and bottom-up forcing (advection, SST) in the BAR and NOR regions. In contrast, zooplankton in the GOM/GB region showed no evidence of top-down forcing but appeared to control production of major fish populations through bottom-up processes that are independent of temperature variability. Recruitment of several fish stocks is significantly and positively correlated with temperature in the EBS and BAR, but cod and pollock recruitment in the EBS has been negatively correlated with temperature since the 1977 shift to generally warmer conditions. In each of the ecosystems, fish species showed a general poleward movement in response to warming. In addition, the distribution of groundfish in the EBS has shown a more complex, non-linear response to warming resulting from internal community dynamics. Responses to recent warming differ across systems and appear to be more direct and more pronounced in the higher latitude systems where food webs and trophic interactions are simpler and where both zooplankton and fish species are often limited by cold temperatures.

Assimilating Satellite SST Observations into a Diurnal Cycle Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pimentel, S.; Haines, K.; Nichols, N. K.

2006-12-01

The wealth of satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data now available opens the possibility of large improvements in SST estimation. However the use of such data is not straight forward; a major difficulty in assimilating satellite observations is that they represent a near surface temperature, whereas in ocean models the top level represents the temperature at a greater depth. During the day, under favourable conditions of clear skies and calm winds, the near surface temperature is often seen to have a diurnal cycle that is picked up in satellite observations. Current ocean models do not have the vertical or temporal resolution to adequately represent this daytime warming. The usual approach is to discard daytime observations as they are considered diurnally `corrupted'. A new assimilation technique is developed here that assimilates observations into a diurnal cycle model. The diurnal cycle of SSTs are modelled using a 1-D mixed layer model with fine near surface resolution and 6 hourly forcing from NWP analyses. The accuracy of the SST estimates are hampered by uncertainties in the forcing data. The extent of diurnal SST warming at a particular location and time is predominately governed by a non-linear response to cloud cover and sea surface wind speeds which greatly affect the air-sea fluxes. The method proposed here combines infrared and microwave SST satellite observations in order to derive corrections to the cloud cover and wind speed values over the day. By adjusting the forcing, SST estimation and air-sea fluxes should be improved and are at least more consistent with each other. This new technique for assimilating SST data can be considered a tool for producing more accurate diurnal warming estimates.

A Design for Maintaining Maritime Superiority. Version 1.0

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

global force is the traffic on the oceans, seas, and waterways, including the sea floor – the classic maritime system. For millennia, the seas have...turn driving an accelerating rate of change – from music to medicine, from microfinance to missiles. 2 The third interrelated force is the...continues to grow. Why a “Design?” The scope and complexity of the challenges we face demand a different approach than that offered by a classic

Physical Control of Biological Productivity Off the Coast of Peru During the 1997-1998 El Nino

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, Mary-Elena

1999-01-01

Satellite observations and an ecosystem model are used to understand the variability in the planktonic ecosystem off Peru for the period January 1996 to May 1998. The objective of this study is to quantify the changes in the ecosystem components, carbon pathways, and available food for small pelagic fish that occur associated with the change in physical forcing due to El Nino. Two periods are distinguished based on the observed sea level anomaly: a La Nina (LaN) period (1996) in which sea level was below normal and El Nino (EN), the average conditions for December 1997, in which the sea level was anomalously high. There are three phytoplankton size classes (pico-, nano-, and net-phytoplankton) which compete for nutrients and are eaten by three zooplankton size classes. The ecosystem model is forced by alongshore wind speed measured by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and the European Remote-sensing Satellites (ERS-1 and ERS-2). Larger, slower growing organisms are more sensitive to physical disturbance than smaller organisms (Carr, 1998]. In the present simulation as well, the primary effect of the El Nino (reduced nutrient supply, and increased temperature) is to reduce the biomass of large cells (netphytoplankton) and consequently of the zooplankton that rely on large cells as food source. EN conditions are accompanied by a rearrangement of carbon pathways: comparable uptake goes into reduced biomass accumulation, increased losses to respiration, reduced carbon export, and much reduced carbon available to fish. The star indicates the remotely sensed biomass (assuming a constant carbon to chlorophyll ratio of 60) as measured by the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (Nov.-Dec. 1996) and the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (Dec. 1997). The model, which assumes no light limitation, overestimates total phytoplankton biomass. Additional Information is contained in the original.

Controls on the early Holocene collapse of the Bothnian Sea Ice Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clason, Caroline C.; Greenwood, Sarah L.; Selmes, Nick; Lea, James M.; Jamieson, Stewart S. R.; Nick, Faezeh M.; Holmlund, Per

2016-12-01

New high-resolution multibeam data in the Gulf of Bothnia reveal for the first time the subglacial environment of a Bothnian Sea Ice Stream. The geomorphological record suggests that increased meltwater production may have been important in driving rapid retreat of Bothnian Sea Ice during deglaciation. Here we apply a well-established, one-dimensional flow line model to simulate ice flow through the Gulf of Bothnia and investigate controls on retreat of the ice stream during the post-Younger Dryas deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet. The relative influence of atmospheric and marine forcings are investigated, with the modeled ice stream exhibiting much greater sensitivity to surface melting, implemented through surface mass balance and hydrofracture-induced calving, than to submarine melting or relative sea level change. Such sensitivity is supported by the presence of extensive meltwater features in the geomorphological record. The modeled ice stream does not demonstrate significant sensitivity to changes in prescribed ice stream width or overall bed slope, but local variations in basal topography and ice stream width result in nonlinear retreat of the grounding line, notably demonstrating points of short-lived retreat slowdown on reverse bed slopes. Retreat of the ice stream was most likely governed by increased ice surface meltwater production, with the modeled retreat rate less sensitive to marine forcings despite the marine setting.

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Trends in the components of extreme water levels signal a rotation of winds in strong storms in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pindsoo, Katri; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The water level time series and particularly temporal variations in water level extremes usually do not follow any simple rule. Still, the analysis of linear trends in extreme values of surge levels is a convenient tool to obtain a first approximation of the future projections of the risks associated with coastal floodings. We demonstrate how this tool can be used to extract essential information about concealed changes in the forcing factors of seas and oceans. A specific feature of the Baltic Sea is that sequences of even moderate storms may raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events occur once in a few years. They substantially contribute to the extreme water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea: the most devastating coastal floodings occur when a strong storm from unfortunate direction arrives during such an event. We focus on the separation of subtidal (weekly-scale) processes from those which are caused by a single storm and on establishing how much these two kinds of events have contributed to the increase in the extreme water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea. The analysis relies on numerically reconstructed sea levels produced by the RCO (Rossby Center, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) ocean model for 1961-2005. The reaction of sea surface to single storm events is isolated from the local water level time series using a running average over a fixed interval. The distribution of average water levels has an almost Gaussian shape for averaging lengths from a few days to a few months. The residual (total water level minus the average) can be interpreted as a proxy of the local storm surges. Interestingly, for the 8-day average this residual almost exactly follows the exponential distribution. Therefore, for this averaging length the heights of local storm surges reflect an underlying Poisson process. This feature is universal for the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast. The slopes of the exponential distribution for low and high water levels are different, vary markedly along the coast and provide a useful quantification of the vulnerability of single coastal segments with respect to coastal flooding. The formal linear trends in the extreme values of these water level components exhibit radically different spatial variations. The slopes of the trends in the weekly average are almost constant (~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average) along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast. This first of all indicates that the duration of storm sequences has increased. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level extremes. Their slopes are almost zero at the open Baltic Proper coasts of the Western Estonian archipelago. Therefore, an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area. In contrast, the slopes in question reach 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This feature suggests that wind direction in strongest storms may have rotated in the northern Baltic Sea.

Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael; Stone, Dáithí; Mitchell, Dann; Shiogama, Hideo; Fischer, Erich; Graff, Lise S.; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Sanderson, Benjamin; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-03-01

The half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI) experimental protocol provides a multi-model database to compare the effects of stabilizing anthropogenic global warming of 1.5 °C over preindustrial levels to 2.0 °C over these levels. The HAPPI experiment is based upon large ensembles of global atmospheric models forced by sea surface temperature and sea ice concentrations plausible for these stabilization levels. This paper examines changes in extremes of high temperatures averaged over three consecutive days. Changes in this measure of extreme temperature are also compared to changes in hot season temperatures. We find that over land this measure of extreme high temperature increases from about 0.5 to 1.5 °C over present-day values in the 1.5 °C stabilization scenario, depending on location and model. We further find an additional 0.25 to 1.0 °C increase in extreme high temperatures over land in the 2.0 °C stabilization scenario. Results from the HAPPI models are consistent with similar results from the one available fully coupled climate model. However, a complicating factor in interpreting extreme temperature changes across the HAPPI models is their diversity of aerosol forcing changes.

Conditions leading to the unprecedented low Antarctic sea ice extent during the 2016 austral spring season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuecker, Malte F.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Armour, Kyle C.

2017-09-01

The 2016 austral spring was characterized by the lowest Southern Hemisphere (SH) sea ice extent seen in the satellite record (1979 to present) and coincided with anomalously warm surface waters surrounding most of Antarctica. We show that two distinct processes contributed to this event: First, the extreme El Niño event peaking in December-February 2015/2016 contributed to pronounced extratropical SH sea surface temperature and sea ice extent anomalies in the eastern Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen Seas that persisted in part until the following 2016 austral spring. Second, internal unforced atmospheric variability of the Southern Annular Mode promoted the exceptional low sea ice extent in November-December 2016. These results suggest that a combination of tropically forced and internal SH atmospheric variability contributed to the unprecedented sea ice decline during the 2016 austral spring, on top of a background of slow changes expected from greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

Impact of realistic future ice sheet discharge on the Atlantic ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Berk, Jelle

2015-04-01

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands A high-end scenario of polar ice loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet is presented with separate projections for different mass-loss sites up to the year 2100. The resultant freshwater forcing is applied to a global climate model and the effects on sea-level rise are discussed. The simulations show strong sea level rise on the Antarctic continental shelves. To separate the effects of atmospheric warming and melt water we then ran four simulations. One without either forcing, one with both and two with one of each separately. Melt water leads to a slight additional depression of the Atlantic overturning circulation, but a strong decrease remains absent. The bulk of the strength reduction is due to higher atmospheric temperatures which inhibits deep water formation in the North Atlantic. The melt water freshens the upper layers of the ocean, but does not strongly impact buoyancy. The balance between North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water must then remain relatively unaffected. Only applying the melt water forcing to the Northern Hemisphere does not lead to a stronger effect. We conclude that the meltwater scenario only impacts the overturning circulation superficially because the deeper ocean is not affected. Transport through Bering Strait and across the zonal section at the latitude of Cape Agulhas is increased by increased atmospheric temperatures and adds some inertia to these transports. Reversing the atmospheric forcing bears this out when the transport then further increases. The freshwater, however, mitigates this inertia somewhat.

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2018-06-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

2017-09-01

Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

Formation of well-mixed warm water column in central Bohai Sea during summer: Role of high-frequency atmospheric forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Weiwei; Wan, Xiuquan; Wang, Zhankun; Liu, Yulong; Wan, Kai

2017-12-01

The influence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing on the formation of a well-mixed summer warm water column in the central Bohai Sea is investigated comparing model simulations driven by daily surface forcing and those using monthly forcing data. In the absence of high-frequency atmospheric forcing, numerical simulations have repeatedly failed to reproduce this vertically uniform column of warm water measured over the past 35 years. However, high-frequency surface forcing is found to strongly influence the structure and distribution of the well-mixed warm water column, and simulations are in good agreement with observations. Results show that high frequency forcing enhances vertical mixing over the central bank, intensifies downward heat transport, and homogenizes the water column to form the Bohai central warm column. Evidence presented shows that high frequency forcing plays a dominant role in the formation of the well-mixed warm water column in summer, even without the effects of tidal and surface wave mixing. The present study thus provides a practical and rational way of further improving the performance of oceanic simulations in the Bohai Sea and can be used to adjust parameterization schemes of ocean models.

Protecting Secure Facilities From Underground Intrusion Using Seismic/Acoustic Sensor Arrays

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-08-01

the upper 6 meters of sediments were deposited as part of a delta during a time of higher sea level, when low-gradient rivers carried fine-grained...geological site characterization and stratigraphy and sedimentation processes. Dr. Jason R. McKenna is a geophysicist at the United States Army Engineer...doctrine is being revised to address the engineer force structure at all levels to ensure that emerging lessons learned from Iraq and Afghanistan are

Results of the Greenland Ice Sheet Model Initialisation Experiments ISMIP6 - initMIP-Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goelzer, H.; Nowicki, S.; Edwards, T.; Beckley, M.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Aschwanden, A.; Calov, R.; Gagliardini, O.; Gillet-chaulet, F.; Golledge, N. R.; Gregory, J. M.; Greve, R.; Humbert, A.; Huybrechts, P.; Larour, E. Y.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Le ´h, S.; Lee, V.; Kennedy, J. H.; Pattyn, F.; Payne, A. J.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Rückamp, M.; Saito, F.; Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Shepherd, A.; Sun, S.; Vandewal, R.; Ziemen, F. A.

2016-12-01

Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections e.g. those run during ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives have shown that ice sheet initialisation can have a large effect on the projections and gives rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this intercomparison exercise (initMIP-Greenland) is to compare, evaluate and improve the initialization techniques used in the ice sheet modeling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. It is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without any forcing) and response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly). We present and discuss final results of the intercomparison and highlight important uncertainties with respect to projections of the Greenland ice sheet sea-level contribution.

Severe flooding along the eastern Adriatic coast: the case of 1 December 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Međugorac, Iva; Pasarić, Miroslava; Orlić, Mirko

2015-06-01

This paper addresses an extraordinary storm surge in the Northern Adriatic that was more pronounced on the eastern than on the western shore. On 1 December 2008, Adriatic monitoring stations detected exceptionally high sea levels; the oldest Croatian tide gauge station recorded the highest water level in its operating history at the time. Apart from the Northern Adriatic, large portion of the Dalmatian Coast was also exposed to high water levels, while Venice experienced a less-dramatic event. This marine storm was different from the capital storm of 4 November 1966 during which the surge had the highest impact ahead of Venice and along the north-western coastline. The 2008 event is studied here in detail, and the mechanisms that resulted in the different flooding of the two shores are identified. The study is based on hourly sea level, air pressure and wind data measured along both basin sides together with ECMWF reanalysis fields. Four components of sea-level evolution are identified: the storm surge, tide, Adriatic seiche and, low-frequency variability. The 2008 event was the outcome of a fine interplay between the first three components, which were all superimposed on the raised sea level due to low-frequency variability. The marine storm differed from the 1966 storm in the atmospheric forcing and relative timing of all contributing processes. The 2008 flooding of the eastern coast was mainly due to the Sirocco-wind shear, whereas the 1966 flooding of the western coast was due to the combined effect of almost uniform Sirocco and bottom slope.

Effects of internal tidal dissipation and self-attraction and loading on semidiurnal tides in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea: a numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Fei; Fang, Guohong; Xu, Xiaoqing

2017-09-01

A parameterized internal tide dissipation term and self-attraction and loading (SAL) tide term are introduced in a barotropic numerical model to investigate the dynamics of semidiurnal tidal constituents M 2 and S 2 in the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea (BYECS). The optimal parameters for bottom friction and internal dissipation are obtained through a series of numerical computations. Numerical simulation shows that the tide-generating force contributes 1.2% of M 2 power for the entire BYECS and up to 2.8% for the East China Sea deep basin. SAL tide contributes 4.4% of M 2 power for the BYECS and up to 9.3% for the East China Sea deep basin. Bottom friction plays a major role in dissipating tidal energy in the shelf regions, and the internal tide effect is important in the deep water regions. Numerical experiments show that artificial removal of tide-generating force in the BYECS can cause a significant difference (as much as 30 cm) in model output. Artificial removal of SAL tide in the BYECS can cause even greater difference, up to 40 cm. This indicates that SAL tide should be taken into account in numerical simulations, especially if the tide-generating force is considered.

Behavior associated with forced copulation of juvenile Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardsi) by southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Heather S.; Oates, Stori C.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Tinker, M. Tim; Jessup, David A.; Harvey, James T.; Miller, Melissa A.

2010-01-01

Nineteen occurrences of interspecific sexual behavior between male southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) and juvenile Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardsi) were reported in Monterey Bay, California, between 2000 and 2002. At least three different male sea otters were observed harassing, dragging, guarding, and copulating with harbor seals for up to 7 d postmortem. Carcasses of 15 juvenile harbor seals were recovered, and seven were necropsied in detail by a veterinary pathologist. Necropsy findings from two female sea otters that were recovered dead from male sea otters exhibiting similar behavior are also presented to facilitate a comparison of lesions. The most frequent lesions included superficial skin lacerations; hemorrhage around the nose, eyes, flippers, and perineum; and traumatic corneal erosions or ulcers. The harbor seals sustained severe genital trauma, ranging from vaginal perforation to vagino-cervical transection, and colorectal perforations as a result of penile penetration. One harbor seal developed severe pneumoperitoneum subsequent to vaginal perforation, which was also observed in both female sea otters and has been reported as a postcoital lesion in humans. This study represents the first description of lesions resulting from forced copulation of harbor seals by sea otters and is also the first report of pneu-moperitoneum secondary to forced copulation in a nonhuman animal. Possible explanations for this behavior are discussed in the context of sea otter biology and population demographics.

CLIMLINK: Climate forcing factors for marine environmental change during the mid- and late Holocene - a link between the NE Atlantic and the Baltic Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polovodova Asteman, Irina; Risebrobakken, Bjørg; Bąk, Małgorzata; Binczewska, Anna; Borówka, Ryszard; Dobosz, Sławomir; Jansen, Eystein; Kaniak, Aleksandra; Moros, Matthias; Perner, Kerstin; Sławinska, Joanna

2015-04-01

Climate change has a strong amplifying effect on the environment of marginal seas such as the Baltic Sea. Owing to the connection of the Baltic Sea with the Atlantic (and the resultant pathway of water exchange via the narrow Danish Straits), changes in the Baltic region are suggested to be driven by external oceanic and atmospheric forcing originating in the Atlantic, particularly in the eastern Nordic seas, the Skagerrak, and the Kattegat. CLIMLINK aims to reconstruct mid- to late Holocene ecosystem changes in these regions and identify linkages, common forcing factors and effects for the Baltic Sea on a millennial to decadal time scale. High-resolution sediment records from selected key sites in the Norwegian Trench, and central Baltic Sea are studied by using a multi-proxy approach. Micropalaeontological studies of diatoms and foraminifera are combined with geochemical proxies, such as stable isotopes, Mg/Ca, TOC, TIC, C/N, XRF and magnetic susceptibility in order to achieve a more comprehensive view on environmental changes during the last 6000 to 8000 years. The chronology of the sediment cores is secured by using multiple dating tools: Hg-pollution records, 137Cs, 210Pb, 14C and tephra layers. Herein we present the initial results of the project.

Allogenic and Autogenic Signals in the Detrital Zircon U-Pb Record of the Deep-Sea Bengal Fan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blum, M. D.; Rogers, K. G.; Gleason, J. D.; Najman, Y.

2017-12-01

The Himalayan-sourced Ganges-Brahmaputra river system and the deep-sea Bengal Fan represent Earth's largest sediment-dispersal system. This presentation summarizes a new detrital zircon U-Pb (DZ) provenance record from the Bengal Fan from cores collected during IODP Expedition 354, with coring sites located 1350 km downdip from the shelf margin. Each of our 15 samples were collected from medium- to fine-grained turbidite sand and, based on shipboard biostratigraphic analyses, our samples are late Miocene to late Pleistocene in age. Each sample was analyzed by LA-ICPMS at the Arizona Laserchron facility, with an average of n=270 concordant U-Pb ages per sample. Our goals are to use these data to evaluate the influence of allogenic controls vs. autogenic processes on signal propagation from source-to-sink. At the first order, large-scale sediment transfer to the Bengal Fan clearly records the strong tectonic and climatic forcing associated with the Himalayas and Ganges-Brahmaputra system: after up to 2500 km of river transport, and 1350 km of transport in turbidity currents, the DZ record faithfully represents Himalayan source terrains. The sand-rich turbidite part of the record is nevertheless biased towards glacial periods when rivers extended across the shelf in response to climate-forced sea-level fall, and discharged directly to slope canyons. However, only part of the Bengal Fan DZ record represents either the Ganges or the Brahmaputra, with most samples representing varying degrees of mixing of sediments from the two systems: this mixing, or the lack thereof, represents the signal of autogenic avulsions on the delta plain that result in the two river systems delivering sediment separately to the shelf margin, or together as they do today. Within the allogenic framework established by tectonic processes, the climatic system, and global climate-forced sea-level change, the DZ U-Pb record of sediment mixing or the lack thereof provides a fingerprint of autogenic avulsions on signal transfer from source-to-sink in the world's largest sediment-dispersal system.

Advances in quantifying air-sea gas exchange and environmental forcing.

PubMed

Wanninkhof, Rik; Asher, William E; Ho, David T; Sweeney, Colm; McGillis, Wade R

2009-01-01

The past decade has seen a substantial amount of research on air-sea gas exchange and its environmental controls. These studies have significantly advanced the understanding of processes that control gas transfer, led to higher quality field measurements, and improved estimates of the flux of climate-relevant gases between the ocean and atmosphere. This review discusses the fundamental principles of air-sea gas transfer and recent developments in gas transfer theory, parameterizations, and measurement techniques in the context of the exchange of carbon dioxide. However, much of this discussion is applicable to any sparingly soluble, non-reactive gas. We show how the use of global variables of environmental forcing that have recently become available and gas exchange relationships that incorporate the main forcing factors will lead to improved estimates of global and regional air-sea gas fluxes based on better fundamental physical, chemical, and biological foundations.

Arctic sea ice area in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate model ensembles - variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semenov, V. A.; Martin, T.; Behrens, L. K.; Latif, M.

2015-02-01

The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover observed during the last decades is probably the clearest manifestation of ongoing climate change. While climate models in general reproduce the sea ice retreat in the Arctic during the 20th century and simulate further sea ice area loss during the 21st century in response to anthropogenic forcing, the models suffer from large biases and the model results exhibit considerable spread. The last generation of climate models from World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), when compared to the previous CMIP3 model ensemble and considering the whole Arctic, were found to be more consistent with the observed changes in sea ice extent during the recent decades. Some CMIP5 models project strongly accelerated (non-linear) sea ice loss during the first half of the 21st century. Here, complementary to previous studies, we compare results from CMIP3 and CMIP5 with respect to regional Arctic sea ice change. We focus on September and March sea ice. Sea ice area (SIA) variability, sea ice concentration (SIC) variability, and characteristics of the SIA seasonal cycle and interannual variability have been analysed for the whole Arctic, termed Entire Arctic, Central Arctic and Barents Sea. Further, the sensitivity of SIA changes to changes in Northern Hemisphere (NH) averaged temperature is investigated and several important dynamical links between SIA and natural climate variability involving the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea level pressure gradient (SLPG) in the western Barents Sea opening serving as an index of oceanic inflow to the Barents Sea are studied. The CMIP3 and CMIP5 models not only simulate a coherent decline of the Arctic SIA but also depict consistent changes in the SIA seasonal cycle and in the aforementioned dynamical links. The spatial patterns of SIC variability improve in the CMIP5 ensemble, particularly in summer. Both CMIP ensembles depict a significant link between the SIA and NH temperature changes. Our analysis suggests that, on average, the sensitivity of SIA to external forcing is enhanced in the CMIP5 models. The Arctic SIA variability response to anthropogenic forcing is different in CMIP3 and CMIP5. While the CMIP3 models simulate increased variability in March and September, the CMIP5 ensemble shows the opposite tendency. A noticeable improvement in the simulation of summer SIA by the CMIP5 models is often accompanied by worse results for winter SIA characteristics. The relation between SIA and mean AMOC changes is opposite in September and March, with March SIA changes being positively correlated with AMOC slowing. Finally, both CMIP ensembles demonstrate an ability to capture, at least qualitatively, important dynamical links of SIA to decadal variability of the AMOC, NAO and SLPG. SIA in the Barents Sea is strongly overestimated by the majority of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models, and projected SIA changes are characterized by a large spread giving rise to high uncertainty.

The influence of terrain forcing on the initiation of deep convection over Mediterranean islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthlott, Christian; Kirshbaum, Daniel

2013-04-01

The influence of mountainous islands on the initiation of deep convection is investigated using the Consortium for Small-scale Modeling (COSMO) model. The study day is 26 August 2009 on which moist convection occurred over both the Corsica and Sardinia island in the Mediterranean Sea. Sensitivity runs with systematically modified topography are explored to evaluate the relative importance of the land-sea contrast and the terrain height for convection initiation. Whereas no island precipitation is simulated when the islands are completely removed, all simulations that represent these land surfaces develop convective precipitation. Although convection initiates progressively earlier in the day over taller islands, the precipitation rates and accumulations do not show a fixed relationship with terrain height. This is due to the competing effects of different physical processes. First, whereas the forcing for low-level ascent increases over taller islands, the boundary-layer moisture supply decreases, which diminishes the conditional instability and precipitable water. Second, whereas taller islands enhance the inland propagation speeds of sea-breeze fronts, they also mechanically block these fronts and prevent them from reaching the island interior. As a result, the island precipitation is rather insensitive to island terrain height except for one particular case in which the island precipitation increases considerably due to an optimal superposition of the sea breeze and upslope flow. These results demonstrate the complexity of interactions between sea breezes and orography and reinforce that an adequate representation of detailed topographic features is necessary to account for thermally induced wind systems that initiate deep convection.

Climate forcing for dynamics of dissolved inorganic nutrients at Palmer Station, Antarctica: An interdecadal (1993-2013) analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyewon; Doney, Scott C.; Iannuzzi, Richard A.; Meredith, Michael P.; Martinson, Douglas G.; Ducklow, Hugh W.

2016-09-01

We analyzed 20 years (1993-2013) of observations of dissolved inorganic macronutrients (nitrate, N; phosphate, P; and silicate, Si) and chlorophyll a (Chl) at Palmer Station, Antarctica (64.8°S, 64.1°W) to elucidate how large-scale climate and local physical forcing affect the interannual variability in the seasonal phytoplankton bloom and associated drawdown of nutrients. The leading modes of nutrients (N, P, and Si empirical orthogonal functions 1, EOF1) represent overall negative anomalies throughout growing seasons, showing a mixed signal of variability in the initial levels and drawdown thereafter (low-frequency dynamics). The second most common seasonal patterns of nitrate and phosphate (N and P EOF2) capture prolonged drawdown events during December-March, which are correlated to Chl EOF1. Si EOF2 captures a drawdown event during November-December, which is correlated to Chl EOF2. These different drawdown patterns are shaped by different sets of physical and climate forcing mechanisms. N and P drawdown events during December-March are influenced by the winter and spring Southern Annular Mode (SAM) phase, where nutrient utilization is enhanced in a stabilized upper water column as a consequence of SAM-driven winter sea ice and spring wind dynamics. Si drawdown during November-December is influenced by early sea ice retreat, where ice breakup may induce abrupt water column stratification and a subsequent diatom bloom or release of diatom cells from within the sea ice. Our findings underscore that seasonal nutrient dynamics in the coastal WAP are coupled to large-scale climate forcing and related physics, understanding of which may enable improved projections of biogeochemical responses to climate change.

Educational Attainment and Labor Force Participation of U.S. Immigrant Offspring from Southeast Asia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poch, Bunnak

This study uses the most recent data from the Current Population Survey to examine socioeconomic standing (mainly educational attainment and labor force participation) of Southeast Asian (SEA) immigrants. The study focuses on what progress SEA immigrants and refugees have made after 2 decades of resettlement, whether second generation children…

Response of water temperature to surface wave effects in the Baltic Sea: simulations with the coupled NEMO-WAM model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alari, Victor; Staneva, Joanna; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian; Janssen, Peter

2016-04-01

The effects of wind waves on the Baltic Sea water temperature has been studied by coupling the hydrodynamical model NEMO with the wave model WAM. The wave forcing terms that have been taken into consideration are: Stokes-Coriolis force, seastate dependent energy flux and sea-state dependent momentum flux. The combined role of these processes as well as their individual contributions on simulated temperature is analysed. The results indicate a pronounced effect of waves on surface temperature, on the distribution of vertical temperature and on upwellinǵs. In northern parts of the Baltic Sea a warming of the surface layer occurs in the wave included simulations. This in turn reduces the cold bias between simulated and measured data. The warming is primarily caused by sea-state dependent energy flux. Wave induced cooling is mostly observed in near coastal areas and is mainly due to Stokes-Coriolis forcing. The latter triggers effect of intensifying upwellings near the coasts, depending on the direction of the wind. The effect of sea-state dependent momentum flux is predominantly to warm the surface layer. During the summer the wave induced water temperature changes were up to 1 °C.

An interannual link between Arctic sea-ice cover and the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caian, Mihaela; Koenigk, Torben; Döscher, Ralf; Devasthale, Abhay

2018-01-01

This work investigates links between Arctic surface variability and the phases of the winter (DJF) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on interannual time-scales. The analysis is based on ERA-reanalysis and model data from the EC-Earth global climate model. Our study emphasizes a mode of sea-ice cover variability that leads the NAO index by 1 year. The mechanism of this leading is based on persistent surface forcing by quasi-stationary meridional thermal gradients. Associated thermal winds lead a slow adjustment of the pressure in the following winter, which in turn feeds-back on the propagation of sea-ice anomalies. The pattern of the sea-ice mode leading NAO has positive anomalies over key areas of South-Davis Strait-Labrador Sea, the Barents Sea and the Laptev-Ohkostsk seas, associated to a high pressure anomaly over the Canadian Archipelago-Baffin Bay and the Laptev-East-Siberian seas. These anomalies create a quasi-annular, quasi-steady, positive gradient of sea-ice anomalies about coastal line (when leading the positive NAO phase) and force a cyclonic vorticity anomaly over the Arctic in the following winter. During recent decades in spite of slight shifts in the modes' spectral properties, the same leading mechanism remains valid. Encouraging, actual models appear to reproduce the same mechanism leading model's NAO, relative to model areas of persistent surface forcing. This indicates that the link between sea-ice and NAO could be exploited as a potential skill-source for multi-year prediction by addressing the key problem of initializing the phase of the NAO/AO (Arctic Oscillation).

Greenland ice sheet mass balance: a review.

PubMed

Khan, Shfaqat A; Aschwanden, Andy; Bjørk, Anders A; Wahr, John; Kjeldsen, Kristian K; Kjær, Kurt H

2015-04-01

Over the past quarter of a century the Arctic has warmed more than any other region on Earth, causing a profound impact on the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its contribution to the rise in global sea level. The loss of ice can be partitioned into processes related to surface mass balance and to ice discharge, which are forced by internal or external (atmospheric/oceanic/basal) fluctuations. Regardless of the measurement method, observations over the last two decades show an increase in ice loss rate, associated with speeding up of glaciers and enhanced melting. However, both ice discharge and melt-induced mass losses exhibit rapid short-term fluctuations that, when extrapolated into the future, could yield erroneous long-term trends. In this paper we review the GrIS mass loss over more than a century by combining satellite altimetry, airborne altimetry, interferometry, aerial photographs and gravimetry data sets together with modelling studies. We revisit the mass loss of different sectors and show that they manifest quite different sensitivities to atmospheric and oceanic forcing. In addition, we discuss recent progress in constructing coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models required to project realistic future sea-level changes.

NASA DC-8 Mission Manager Walter Klein and Chilean Air Force Advisor Captain Saez review maps of the Antarctic Peninsula during an AirSAR 2004 mission

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-03-13

NASA DC-8 Mission Manager Walter Klein and Chilean Air Force Advisor Captain Saez review maps of the Antarctic Peninsula during an AirSAR 2004 mission. AirSAR 2004 is a three-week expedition in Central and South America by an international team of scientists that is using an all-weather imaging tool, called the Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AirSAR), located onboard NASA's DC-8 airborne laboratory. Scientists from many parts of the world are combining ground research with NASA's AirSAR technology to improve and expand on the quality of research they are able to conduct. These photos are from the DC-8 aircraft while flying an AirSAR mission over Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula is more similar to Alaska and Patagonia than to the rest of the Antarctic continent. It is drained by fast glaciers, receives abundant precipitation, and melts significantly in the summer months. In recent decades, the Peninsula has experienced significant atmospheric warming (about 2 degrees C since 1950), which has triggered a vast and spectacular retreat of its floating ice shelves, glacier reduction, a decrease in permanent snow cover and a lengthening of the melt season. As a result, the contribution to sea level from this region could be rapid and substantial. With an area of 120,000 km, or ten times the Patagonia ice fields, the Peninsula could contribute as much as 0.4mm/yr sea level rise, which would be the largest single contribution to sea level from anywhere in the world. This region is being studied by NASA using a DC-8 equipped with the Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar developed by scientists from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. AirSAR will provide a baseline model and unprecedented mapping of the region. This data will make it possible to determine whether the warming trend is slowing, continuing or accelerating. AirSAR will also provide reliable information on ice shelf thickness to measure the contribution of the glaciers to sea level.

Simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet over two glacial-interglacial cycles: investigating a sub-ice-shelf melt parameterization and relative sea level forcing in an ice-sheet-ice-shelf model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, Sarah L.; Reerink, Thomas J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Helsen, Michiel M.

2018-05-01

Observational evidence, including offshore moraines and sediment cores, confirm that at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) expanded to a significantly larger spatial extent than seen at present, grounding into Baffin Bay and out onto the continental shelf break. Given this larger spatial extent and its close proximity to the neighbouring Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and Innuitian Ice Sheet (IIS), it is likely these ice sheets will have had a strong non-local influence on the spatial and temporal behaviour of the GrIS. Most previous paleo ice-sheet modelling simulations recreated an ice sheet that either did not extend out onto the continental shelf or utilized a simplified marine ice parameterization which did not fully include the effect of ice shelves or neglected the sensitivity of the GrIS to this non-local bedrock signal from the surrounding ice sheets. In this paper, we investigated the evolution of the GrIS over the two most recent glacial-interglacial cycles (240 ka BP to the present day) using the ice-sheet-ice-shelf model IMAU-ICE. We investigated the solid earth influence of the LIS and IIS via an offline relative sea level (RSL) forcing generated by a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model. The RSL forcing governed the spatial and temporal pattern of sub-ice-shelf melting via changes in the water depth below the ice shelves. In the ensemble of simulations, at the glacial maximums, the GrIS coalesced with the IIS to the north and expanded to the continental shelf break to the southwest but remained too restricted to the northeast. In terms of the global mean sea level contribution, at the Last Interglacial (LIG) and LGM the ice sheet added 1.46 and -2.59 m, respectively. This LGM contribution by the GrIS is considerably higher (˜ 1.26 m) than most previous studies whereas the contribution to the LIG highstand is lower (˜ 0.7 m). The spatial and temporal behaviour of the northern margin was highly variable in all simulations, controlled by the sub-ice-shelf melting which was dictated by the RSL forcing and the glacial history of the IIS and LIS. In contrast, the southwestern part of the ice sheet was insensitive to these forcings, with a uniform response in all simulations controlled by the surface air temperature, derived from ice cores.

Seasonal Forcing of Summer Dissolved Inorganic Carbon and Chlorophyll a on the Western Shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-30

Click Here for Full Article Seasonal forcing of summer dissolved inorganic carbon and chlorophyll a on the western shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula... season characterized by decreased spring sea ice cover or nearshore accumulation of phytoplankton in association with sea ice. The impact of these wind...Stammerjohn, and O. Schofield (2010), Seasonal forcing of summer dissolved inorganic carbon and chlorophyll a on the western shelf of the Antarctic

Simulation of Dust Radiative Impact on the Red Sea Using Coupled Regional Ocean/Atmosphere Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, G. L.; Osipov, S.

2016-12-01

This study focuses on the Middle East regional climate response to the dust aerosol radiative forcing. MODIS and SEVIRI satellite observations show extremely high (exceeding 1) dust optical depths over the southern Red Sea during the summer season. The significant north-to-south gradient of the dust optical depth over the Red Sea persists throughout the entire year. The radiative forcing of dust at the sea surface exceeds 120 Wm-2. The effect of this forcing to the Red Sea thermal regime and circulations is not well quantified yet. Therefore here we employ the Regional Ocean Modeling system (ROMS) fully coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to study the impact of dust on the Red Sea. The WRF was modified to interactively account for the radiative effect of dust. Daily spectral optical properties of dust are computed using Mie, T-matrix and geometric optics approaches, and are based on the SEVIRI climatological optical depth. The WRF model parent and nested domains are configured over the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and over the Red Sea with 30 and 10 km resolution, respectively. The ROMS model over the Red Sea has 2 km grid spacing. The simulations show that, in the equilibrium response, dust causes 0.5-0.7K cooling of the Red Sea surface waters, and weakens the overturning circulation in the Red Sea. The salinity distribution, fresh water and heat budgets are significantly perturbed. This indicates that dust plays an important role in formation of the Red Sea energy balance and circulation regimes, and has to be thoroughly accounted for in the future modeling studies.

Public Health and Mental Health Implications of Environmentally Induced Forced Migration.

PubMed

Shultz, James M; Rechkemmer, Andreas; Rai, Abha; McManus, Katherine T

2018-03-28

ABSTRACTClimate change is increasingly forcing population displacement, better described by the phrase environmentally induced forced migration. Rising global temperatures, rising sea levels, increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters, and progressive depletion of life-sustaining resources are among the drivers that stimulate population mobility. Projections forecast that current trends will rapidly accelerate. This will lead to an estimated 200 million climate migrants by the year 2050 and create dangerous tipping points for public health and security.Among the public health consequences of climate change, environmentally induced forced migration is one of the harshest and most harmful outcomes, always involving a multiplicity of profound resource and social losses and frequently exposing migrants to trauma and violence. Therefore, one particular aspect of forced migration, the effects of population displacement on mental health and psychosocial functioning, deserves dedicated focus. Multiple case examples are provided to elucidate this theme. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 7).

Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Chauvin, Fabrice; Cattiaux, Julien; Terray, Laurent; Cassou, Christophe

2017-12-01

The large-scale and synoptic-scale Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation responses to projected late twenty-first century Arctic sea ice decline induced by increasing Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) concentrations are investigated using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model. An original protocol, based on a flux correction technique, allows isolating the respective roles of GHG direct radiative effect and induced Arctic sea ice loss under RCP8.5 scenario. In winter, the surface atmospheric response clearly exhibits opposing effects between GHGs increase and Arctic sea ice loss, leading to no significant pattern in the total response (particularly in the North Atlantic region). An analysis based on Eady growth rate shows that Arctic sea ice loss drives the weakening in the low-level meridional temperature gradient, causing a general decrease of the baroclinicity in the mid and high latitudes, whereas the direct impact of GHGs increase is more located in the mid-to-high troposphere. Changes in the flow waviness, evaluated from sinuosity and blocking frequency metrics, are found to be small relative to inter-annual variability.

Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Hoffman H. N.; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Zhou, Wen

2018-01-01

We identify that the projected uncertainty of the pan-Arctic sea-ice concentration (SIC) is strongly coupled with the Eurasian circulation in the boreal winter (December-March; DJFM), based on a singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis of the forced response of 11 CMIP5 models. In the models showing a stronger sea-ice decline, the Polar cell becomes weaker and there is an anomalous increase in the sea level pressure (SLP) along 60°N, including the Urals-Siberia region and the Iceland low region. There is an accompanying weakening of both the midlatitude westerly winds and the Ferrell cell, where the SVD signals are also related to anomalous sea surface temperature warming in the midlatitude North Atlantic. In the Mediterranean region, the anomalous circulation response shows a decreasing SLP and increasing precipitation. The anomalous SLP responses over the Euro-Atlantic region project on to the negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern. Altogether, pan-Arctic SIC decline could strongly impact the winter Eurasian climate, but we should be cautious about the causality of their linkage.

An analysis of cost overruns on defense acquisition contracts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, David S.

1994-01-01

This article examines the history of cost overruns reported on 64 completed defense contracts. Its purpose is to formally test the observation of the Under Secretary. Results confirm the observation at the 95 percent level of confidence, and were generally insensitive to the contract type (price, cost), the contract phase (development, production), the type of weapon system (air, ground, sea), and the armed forces service (Air Force, Army, Navy) that managed the contract. After a review of terminology, concepts, and related research for those unfamiliar with the area, the methodology, results, and managerial implications are described.

Assessing tidal marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise in the Skagit Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hood, W. Gregory; Grossman, Eric E.; Curt Veldhuisen,

2016-01-01

Historical aerial photographs, from 1937 to the present, show Skagit Delta tidal marshes prograding into Skagit Bay for most of the record, but the progradation rates have been steadily declining and the marshes have begun to erode in recent decades despite the large suspended sediment load provided by the Skagit River. In an area of the delta isolated from direct riverine sediment supply by anthropogenic blockage of historical distributaries, 0.5-m tall marsh cliffs along with concave marsh profiles indicate wave erosion is contributing to marsh retreat. This is further supported by a “natural experiment” provided by rocky outcrops that shelter high marsh in their lee, while being bounded by 0.5-m lower eroded marsh to windward and on either side. Coastal wetlands with high sediment supply are thought to be resilient to sea level rise, but the case of the Skagit Delta shows this is not necessarily true. A combination of sea level rise and wave-generated erosion may overwhelm sediment supply. Additionally, anthropogenic obstruction of historical distributaries and levee construction along the remaining distributaries likely increase the jet momentum of river discharge, forcing much suspended sediment to bypass the tidal marshes and be exported from Skagit Bay. Adaptive response to the threat of climate change related sea level rise and increased wave frequency or intensity should consider the efficacy of restoring historical distributaries and managed retreat of constrictive river levees to maximize sediment delivery to delta marshes.

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeramony, J.

2016-12-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on surge and inundation due to tropical cyclones is important for coastal adaptation as well as mitigation efforts. Changes in global climate increase vulnerability of coastal environments to the threat posed by severe storms in a number of ways. Both the intensity of future storms as well as the return periods of more severe storms are expected to increase signficantly. Increasing mean sea levels lead to more areas being inundated due to storm surge and bring the threat of inundation further inland. Rainfall associated with severe storms are also expected to increase substantially, which will add to the intensity of inland flooding and coastal inundation. In this study, we will examine the effects of sea level rise and increasing rainfall intensity using Hurricane Ike as the baseline. The Delft3D modeling system will be set up in nested mode, with the outermost nest covering the Gulf of Mexico. The system will be run in a coupled mode, modeling both waves and the hydrodynamics. The baseline simulation will use the atmospheric forcing which consists of the NOAA H*Wind (Powell et all 1998) for the core hurricane characteristics blended with reanalyzed background winds to create a smooth wind field. The rainfall estimates are obtained from TRMM. From this baseline, a set of simulations will be performed to show the impact of sea level rise and increased rainfall activity on flooding and inundation along theTexas-Lousiana coast.

Groundwater movement on a Low-lying Carbonate Atoll Island and its Response to Climatic and Sea-level Fluctuations: Roi Namur, Republic of the Marshall Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oberle, F. J.; Swarzenski, P. W.; Storlazzi, C. D.

2017-12-01

Atoll islands, most of which only average 1-2 meters above today's sea level, provide a tremendous natural laboratory in which to study and better understand the intensifying impacts of high rates of sea-level rise on tropical reef-lined islands. These islands are unique and on the frontline of negative societal impacts due to their geologic structure and limited water supply. Groundwater resources on atolls are typically minimal due to the low elevation and small surface area of the islands and are also subject to recurring droughts, and more frequent, storm-driven seawater overwash events. Although groundwater is the principal means of freshwater storage on atoll islands and is a major factor in determining the overall sustainability of island settlements, hydrological data on how an aquifer will response to changes in sea-level rise or storm-driven overwash remain limited. Here we present high-resolution time series hydrogeological and geochemical data from a 16 month study to determine the role of an atoll's carbonate geology, land use, and atmospheric and oceanographic forcing in driving coastal groundwater exchange including submarine groundwater discharge on the island of Roi-Namur on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. This information can provide new estimates on the recovery and resilience of coastal groundwater resources on similar islands that are expected to experience climate change-driven perturbations.

Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Tony E.; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Future sea-level rise drives severe risks for many coastal communities. Strategies to manage these risks hinge on a sound characterization of the uncertainties. For example, recent studies suggest that large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) may rapidly disintegrate in response to rising global temperatures, leading to potentially several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. It is deeply uncertain, for example, whether such an AIS disintegration will be triggered, how much this would increase sea-level rise, whether extreme storm surges intensify in a warming climate, or which emissions pathway future societies will choose. Here, we assess the impacts of these deep uncertainties on projected flooding probabilities for a levee ring in New Orleans, LA. We use 18 scenarios, presenting probabilistic projections within each one, to sample key deeply uncertain future projections of sea-level rise, radiative forcing pathways, storm surge characterization, and contributions from rapid AIS mass loss. The implications of these deep uncertainties for projected flood risk are thus characterized by a set of 18 probability distribution functions. We use a global sensitivity analysis to assess which mechanisms contribute to uncertainty in projected flood risk over the course of a 50-year design life. In line with previous work, we find that the uncertain storm surge drives the most substantial risk, followed by general AIS dynamics, in our simple model for future flood risk for New Orleans.

Uncertainties in the Antarctic Ice Sheet Contribution to Sea Level Rise: Exploration of Model Response to Errors in Climate Forcing, Boundary Conditions, and Internal Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, N.; Seroussi, H. L.; Boening, C.; Larour, E. Y.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Watkins, M. M.

2017-12-01

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory-University of California at Irvine Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) is a thermo-mechanical 2D/3D parallelized finite element software used to physically model the continental-scale flow of ice at high resolutions. Embedded into ISSM are uncertainty quantification (UQ) tools, based on the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) software. ISSM-DAKOTA offers various UQ methods for the investigation of how errors in model input impact uncertainty in simulation results. We utilize these tools to regionally sample model input and key parameters, based on specified bounds of uncertainty, and run a suite of continental-scale 100-year ISSM forward simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Resulting diagnostics (e.g., spread in local mass flux and regional mass balance) inform our conclusion about which parameters and/or forcing has the greatest impact on century-scale model simulations of ice sheet evolution. The results allow us to prioritize the key datasets and measurements that are critical for the minimization of ice sheet model uncertainty. Overall, we find that Antartica's total sea level contribution is strongly affected by grounding line retreat, which is driven by the magnitude of ice shelf basal melt rates and by errors in bedrock topography. In addition, results suggest that after 100 years of simulation, Thwaites glacier is the most significant source of model uncertainty, and its drainage basin has the largest potential for future sea level contribution. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Church, John A.; White, Neil J.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Domingues, Catia M.; Cogley, J. Graham; Rignot, Eric; Gregory, Jonathan M.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Velicogna, Isabella

2011-01-01

We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 0.2 mm yr-1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 0.2 mm yr -1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 0.4 mm yr-1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr-1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr -1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr -1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr -1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of-0.1 mm yr-1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earth's energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as-0.8 0.4 W m-2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Modeling the Response of Human Altered Natural Barrier Island Dynamics Along Assateague Island National Seashore to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carroll, A.; McNamara, D.; Schupp, C.

2009-12-01

Assateague Island National Seashore comprises a long barrier island located off the coasts of Maryland and Virginia. Geological evidence suggests that over recent centuries Assateague Island has steadily transgressed up the continental shelf in response to rising sea level. More recently, the natural barrier island dynamics governing Assateague’s evolution have been altered by human activity in three ways: the construction of a jetty and the subsequent interruption of alongshore sediment transport on the north end of Assateague and both the ongoing and abandoned maintenance of a continuous dune system along portions of Assateague with the concomitant modification to overwash dynamics. It is unclear how these varied human alterations to the natural barrier island dynamics will influence the response of Assateague to climate change induced shifts in forcing such as increased rates of sea level rise and changing storm patterns. We use LIDAR detected morphological data of Assateague Island as initial conditions in an alongshore extended model for barrier island dynamics including beach erosion, island overwash and inlet cutting during storms, and beach accretion, tidal delta growth and dune and vegetation growth between storms to explore the response of the various human altered segments of Assateague Island to forcing changes. Traditional models exploring barrier island evolution contain only cross-shore dynamics therefore lacking important alongshore-spatial dynamics in aeolian and surf zone sediment transport. Results show that including alongshore dynamics alter the steady state of Assateague relative to simulations that only include cross-shore dynamics. Results will also be presented exploring the potential for regime shifts in steady state behavior under various scenarios for the rate of sea level rise and storm climate and varying management strategies.

Antarctic climate and ice-sheet configuration during the early Pliocene interglacial at 4.23 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Thomas, Zoë A.; Levy, Richard H.; Gasson, Edward G. W.; Naish, Timothy R.; McKay, Robert M.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Fogwill, Christopher J.

2017-07-01

The geometry of Antarctic ice sheets during warm periods of the geological past is difficult to determine from geological evidence, but is important to know because such reconstructions enable a more complete understanding of how the ice-sheet system responds to changes in climate. Here we investigate how Antarctica evolved under orbital and greenhouse gas conditions representative of an interglacial in the early Pliocene at 4.23 Ma, when Southern Hemisphere insolation reached a maximum. Using offline-coupled climate and ice-sheet models, together with a new synthesis of high-latitude palaeoenvironmental proxy data to define a likely climate envelope, we simulate a range of ice-sheet geometries and calculate their likely contribution to sea level. In addition, we use these simulations to investigate the processes by which the West and East Antarctic ice sheets respond to environmental forcings and the timescales over which these behaviours manifest. We conclude that the Antarctic ice sheet contributed 8.6 ± 2.8 m to global sea level at this time, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration identical to present (400 ppm). Warmer-than-present ocean temperatures led to the collapse of West Antarctica over centuries, whereas higher air temperatures initiated surface melting in parts of East Antarctica that over one to two millennia led to lowering of the ice-sheet surface, flotation of grounded margins in some areas, and retreat of the ice sheet into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. The results show that regional variations in climate, ice-sheet geometry, and topography produce long-term sea-level contributions that are non-linear with respect to the applied forcings, and which under certain conditions exhibit threshold behaviour associated with behavioural tipping points.

A New NOAA Research Initiative on the Seasonal Prediction of U.S. Coastal High Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariotti, A.; Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Huang, J.

2017-12-01

A crucial part of NOAA's service mission is to make U.S. communities more resilient to rises in coastal sea level, which on a seasonal timescale may increase the threat for nuisance ("sunny day") flooding, as well as enhance the severity of storm surge events. Over a season, variability in climate or ocean dynamics, in combination with longer-term trends, can influence coastal sea level in a way that is potentially predictable. To leverage these emerging scientific findings, the Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program, in partnership with the National Marine Fisheries Service, has funded a set of three-year projects starting in FY 2017 to help develop NOAA's capability to produce skillful seasonal (i.e, 2-9 month) predictions of coastal high water levels as well as changing living marine resources. This presentation will describe the goals, scope and intended activities of this research initiative and its coordination via a new MAPP Ocean Prediction Task Force.

Patterns and drivers of daily bed-level dynamics on two tidal flats with contrasting wave exposure.

PubMed

Hu, Zhan; Yao, Peng; van der Wal, Daphne; Bouma, Tjeerd J

2017-08-02

Short-term bed-level dynamics has been identified as one of the main factors affecting biota establishment or retreat on tidal flats. However, due to a lack of proper instruments and intensive labour involved, the pattern and drivers of daily bed-level dynamics are largely unexplored in a spatiotemporal context. In this study, 12 newly-developed automatic bed-level sensors were deployed for nearly 15 months on two tidal flats with contrasting wave exposure, proving an unique dataset of daily bed-level changes and hydrodynamic forcing. By analysing the data, we show that (1) a general steepening trend exists on both tidal flats, even with contrasting wave exposure and different bed sediment grain size; (2) daily morphodynamics level increases towards the sea; (3) tidal forcing sets the general morphological evolution pattern at both sites; (4) wave forcing induces short-term bed-level fluctuations at the wave-exposed site, but similar effect is not seen at the sheltered site with smaller waves; (5) storms provoke aggravated erosion, but the impact is conditioned by tidal levels. This study provides insights in the pattern and drivers of daily intertidal bed-level dynamics, thereby setting a template for future high-resolution field monitoring programmes and inviting in-depth morphodynamic modelling for improved understanding and predictive capability.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Rapid changes in the seasonal sea level cycle along the US Gulf coast in the early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Calafat, F. M.; Luther, M. E.

2013-12-01

The seasonal cycle is an energetic component in the sea level spectrum and dominates the intra-annual sea level variability outside the semidiurnal and diurnal tidal bands in most regions. Changes in the annual or semi-annual amplitudes or phase lags have an immediate impact on marine coastal systems. Increases in the amplitudes or phase shifts towards the storm surge season may for instance exacerbate the risk of coastal flooding and/or beach erosion, and the ecological health of estuarine systems is also coupled to the seasonal sea level cycle. Here, we investigate the temporal variability of the seasonal harmonics along the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) coastline using records from 13 tide gauges providing at least 30 years of data in total and at least 15 years for the period after 1990. The longest records go back to the early 20th century. Running Fourier analysis (with a window length of 5-years) is used to extract the seasonal harmonics from the observations. The resulting time series show a considerable decadal variability and no longer-term changes are found in the phase lags and the semi-annual amplitude. The amplitude of the dominating annual cycle in contrast shows a tendency towards higher values since the turn of the century at tide gauges in the eastern part of the GOM. This increase of up to more than 25% is found to be significant at the 90% confidence level for most tide gauges along the coastline of West Florida and at the 75% confidence level for virtually all stations in the eastern GOM (from Key West to Dauphin Island). Monthly mean sea level sub-series show that the changes are partly due to smaller values in the cold season but mostly a result of higher values in the warm season, i.e. sea levels tend to be higher during the hurricane season. We use information on the steric sea level component, sea surface and air temperature, wind forcing, precipitation, and sea level pressure to explain the mechanisms driving the decadal variability in the annual amplitude and the rapid increase over the last decade in the eastern GOM. We have developed several multiple regression models (MRM) with a varying number of independent predictors to reconstruct the temporal changes back to the mid and early 20th century (depending on data availability of the predictors). The models are able to explain up to 85% of the observed variability (70% on average across sites) and major parts of the rapid increase in the early 21st century. Multicollinearity between the predictors makes it difficult to quantify the contribution of individual parameters to the increase but sensitivity tests outline that changes in the annual cycle of the air surface temperature (which in turn directly propagates into the sea surface temperature) played a dominant role. The MRMs allow us to reconstruct the seasonal sea level cycle back to the early 20th century at all tide gauge sites and will be used in a follow-up study in combination with regional climate model output to assess potential future changes.

Identification of Individual Efficiency for Barometric Pressure and Ocean Tide Load Simultaneously Acted on Deep Aquifers Adjacent to the West Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, David Ching-Fang

2018-06-01

Groundwater fluctuation usually reflects the property of aquifer in nature. Actually, water level change can be caused not only by barometric pressure changes resulted from atmospheric motion, but also by the tidal effect from nearby marine system or water body. In confined aquifer, an increase in barometric pressure usually will cause a decrease in water level in well to an amount described by the barometric efficiency. The barometric efficiency can be also used as a correction factor to remove barometric effects on water levels in wells during an aquifer test. With the rise of the tidal sea on the coastal aquifer, it indicates that there will be compensating increases of water pressure and stress in the skeleton of aquifer. External forcing on groundwater level in the coastal aquifer, such as barometric effect and tidal sea, usually affect the water level to fluctuate with different phases to some extent. An adaptive adjustment to remove the combination of barometric and oceanic tidal efficiency is presented in this study. This research suggests that the presented formula can simultaneously identify the individual efficiency for barometric effect and load of tidal sea considering their combined observation of groundwater level in aquifer system. An innovative application has been demonstrated for the deep aquifers adjacent to the West Pacific Ocean.

The Lower Danube River-Danube Delta-North West Black Sea: A pivotal area of major interest for the past, present and future of its fish fauna--A short review.

PubMed

Bănăduc, Doru; Rey, Sonia; Trichkova, Teodora; Lenhardt, Mirjana; Curtean-Bănăduc, Angela

2016-03-01

The complex Danube-Black Sea geoecosystem, created by a unique combination of integrated biotopes and biocoenoses related forces and counter-forces in time and space, forms a rich "ichthyosystem". The equilibrium among the fish species captured in the Danube Delta reveals its structural and functional roles in the connectivity of the Danube and Black Sea. The key role of the delta is evidenced by the fact that 57.26% of the Lower Danube-Danube Delta-North West Black Sea fish species use two or three of the subsystems in terms of habitats. Therefore, this convergence area can be considered to be a dynamic and rich "ichthyosystem", with three subsystems. All three evolved interdependently, which permits their flexibility and adaptation in an interdependent way. The habitat heterogeneity, native economic and conservation priority fish species of the Lower Danube-Danube Delta-North Western Black Sea have decreased significantly, and there are no indications that this trend will be halted soon. The Danube "sub-ichtyosystem" seems to be more directly affected than the others. The Lower Danube-Danube Delta-North Western Black Sea "ichthyosystem" exhibits a significant level of flexibility, resilience and adaptation over geological time, but has become much more sensitive to environmental perturbations due to the last century of human impact. This "ichthyosystem" is affected by non-native fish species. The study area represents an interdependent ecological net, without which the specific "ichthyosystem" formed over geological time will disappear. The studied ecological net fish fauna is an accurate indicator of various human pressures. The Lower Danube-Danube Delta-North West Black Sea geoecosystem, in which the Danube Delta provides the pivotal habitat element, is the matrix for a unique "ichthyosystem." However, human impacts decrease its resilience and can induce its extinction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Philippine Navy’s Strategic Sail Plan 2020: A Strong and Credible Force by 2020

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-09

In his 1990 book, he ranked the Philippines Navy at a 6, offshore territorial defense Navy, with high levels of capability in operations up to about...relatively high levels of capability in defensive (and constabulary) operations up to about 200 miles from their shores”196 but the Philippines “just...South China Sea and the competing claims with the Philippines within this area. Philippine Focus on Maritime Security There are multiple articles

Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard)

PubMed Central

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-01

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21st century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to −4 m a−1 w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario. PMID:25628045

Regional influences on reconstructed global mean sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natarov, Svetlana I.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Becker, Janet M.; Thompson, Phillip R.

2017-04-01

Reconstructions of global mean sea level (GMSL) based on tide gauge measurements tend to exhibit common multidecadal rate fluctuations over the twentieth century. GMSL rate changes may result from physical drivers, such as changes in radiative forcing or land water storage. Alternatively, these fluctuations may represent artifacts due to sampling limitations inherent in the historical tide gauge network. In particular, a high percentage of tide gauges used in reconstructions, especially prior to the 1950s, are from Europe and North America in the North Atlantic region. Here a GMSL reconstruction based on the reduced space optimal interpolation algorithm is deconstructed, with the contributions of individual tide gauge stations quantified and assessed regionally. It is demonstrated that the North Atlantic region has a disproportionate influence on reconstructed GMSL rate fluctuations prior to the 1950s, notably accounting for a rate minimum in the 1920s and contributing to a rate maximum in the 1950s. North Atlantic coastal sea level fluctuations related to wind-driven ocean volume redistribution likely contribute to these estimated GMSL rate inflections. The findings support previous claims that multidecadal rate changes in GMSL reconstructions are likely related to the geographic distribution of tide gauge stations within a sparse global network.

Intercomparison of oceanic and atmospheric forced and coupled mesoscale simulations. Part I: Surface fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josse, P.; Caniaux, G.; Giordani, H.; Planton, S.

1999-04-01

A mesoscale non-hydrostatic atmospheric model has been coupled with a mesoscale oceanic model. The case study is a four-day simulation of a strong storm event observed during the SEMAPHORE experiment over a 500 × 500 km2 domain. This domain encompasses a thermohaline front associated with the Azores current. In order to analyze the effect of mesoscale coupling, three simulations are compared: the first one with the atmospheric model forced by realistic sea surface temperature analyses; the second one with the ocean model forced by atmospheric fields, derived from weather forecast re-analyses; the third one with the models being coupled. For these three simulations the surface fluxes were computed with the same bulk parametrization. All three simulations succeed well in representing the main oceanic or atmospheric features observed during the storm. Comparison of surface fields with in situ observations reveals that the winds of the fine mesh atmospheric model are more realistic than those of the weather forecast re-analyses. The low-level winds simulated with the atmospheric model in the forced and coupled simulations are appreciably stronger than the re-analyzed winds. They also generate stronger fluxes. The coupled simulation has the strongest surface heat fluxes: the difference in the net heat budget with the oceanic forced simulation reaches on average 50 Wm-2 over the simulation period. Sea surface-temperature cooling is too weak in both simulations, but is improved in the coupled run and matches better the cooling observed with drifters. The spatial distributions of sea surface-temperature cooling and surface fluxes are strongly inhomogeneous over the simulation domain. The amplitude of the flux variation is maximum in the coupled run. Moreover the weak correlation between the cooling and heat flux patterns indicates that the surface fluxes are not responsible for the whole cooling and suggests that the response of the ocean mixed layer to the atmosphere is highly non-local and enhanced in the coupled simulation.

Evaluating meteo marine climatic model inputs for the investigation of coastal hydrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellafiore, D.; Bucchignani, E.; Umgiesser, G.

2010-09-01

One of the major aspects discussed in the recent works on climate change is how to provide information from the global scale to the local one. In fact the influence of sea level rise and changes in the meteorological conditions due to climate change in strategic areas like the coastal zone is at the base of the well known mitigation and risk assessment plans. The investigation of the coastal zone hydrodynamics, from a modeling point of view, has been the field for the connection between hydraulic models and ocean models and, in terms of process studies, finite element models have demonstrated their suitability in the reproduction of complex coastal morphology and in the capability to reproduce different spatial scale hydrodynamic processes. In this work the connection between two different model families, the climate models and the hydrodynamic models usually implemented for process studies, is tested. Together, they can be the most suitable tool for the investigation of climate change on coastal systems. A finite element model, SHYFEM (Shallow water Hydrodynamic Finite Element Model), is implemented on the Adriatic Sea, to investigate the effect of wind forcing datasets produced by different downscaling from global climate models in terms of surge and its coastal effects. The wind datasets are produced by the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CIRA), and by EBU-POM model (Belgrade University), both downscaling from ECHAM4. As a first step the downscaled wind datasets, that have different spatial resolutions, has been analyzed for the period 1960-1990 to compare what is their capability to reproduce the measured wind statistics in the coastal zone in front of the Venice Lagoon. The particularity of the Adriatic Sea meteo climate is connected with the influence of the orography in the strengthening of winds like Bora, from North-East. The increase in spatial resolution permits the more resolved wind dataset to better reproduce meteorology and to provide a more realistic forcing for hydrodynamic simulations. After this analysis, effects on water level variations, under different wind forcing, has been analyzed to define what is the local effect on sea level changes in the coastal area of the North Adriatic. Surge statistics produced from different climate model forcings for the IPCC A1B scenario have been studied to provide local information on climate change effects on coastal hydrodynamics due to meteorological effect. This typology of application has been considered a suitable tool for coastal management and can be considered a study field that will increase its importance in the more general investigation on scale interaction processes as the effects of global scale climate phenomena on local areas.

Uncovering the Anthropogenic Sea Level Change using an Improved Sea Level Reconstruction for the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, P.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Han, W.

2016-12-01

Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastal regions, sea level (SL) variability in the Indian Ocean (IO) has received considerably less attention than the Pacific Ocean. Differentiating the internal variability from the long-term trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) at decadal time-scales is vital for planning and mitigation efforts in the IO region. Understanding the dynamics of internal and anthropogenic SL change is essential for understanding the dynamic pathways that link the IO basin to terrestrial climates world-wide. With a sparse pre-satellite observational record of the IO, the Indo-Pacific internal climate variability is difficult to represent accurately. However, an improved representation of pre-satellite SL variability can be achieved by using a multivariate reconstruction technique. By using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) that can capture time-varying spatial patterns, gaps in the historical record when observations are sparse are filled using spatial relationships from time periods when the observational network is dense. This reconstruction method combines SL data and sea surface temperature (SST) to create a SL reconstruction that spans a period from 1900 to present, long enough to study climate signals over interannual to decadal time scales. This study aims at estimating the component of SL rise that relates to anthropogenic forcing by identifying and removing the fraction related to internal variability. An improved understanding of how the internal climate variability can affect the IO SL trend and variability, will provide an insight into the future SL changes. It is also important to study links between SL and climate variability in the past to understand how SL will respond to similar climatic events in the future and if this response will be influenced by the changing climate.

KSC-08pd1319

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage is being raised to a vertical position in front of the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2. Once it is vertical, the first stage will be transferred into the tower. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1337

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-30

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- On Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the second solid rocket motor, or SRM, is being raised to a vertical position. Once vertical, the SRM will be lifted into the mobile service tower and attached to the Delta II first stage inside. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

KSC-08pd1321

NASA Image and Video Library

2008-04-25

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- At Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, the Delta II first stage has been raised to a vertical position in front of the mobile service tower on Space Launch Complex 2. Next, the first stage will be transferred into the tower. The Delta II is the launch vehicle for the OSTM/Jason-2 spacecraft. The OSTM, or Ocean Topography Mission, on the Jason-2 satellite is a follow-on to Jason-1. It will take oceanographic studies of sea surface height into an operational mode for continued climate forecasting research and science and industrial applications. This satellite altimetry data will help determine ocean circulation, climate change and sea-level rise. OSTM is a joint effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NASA, France’s Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales and the European Meteorological Satellite Organisation. OSTM/Jason-2 will be launched aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II 7320 from Vandenberg on June 15. Photo credit: NASA/Dan Liberotti

Adapting to Sea Level Rise to the Year 2100 and Beyond in the State of Florida, USA: A Regional Approach Based upon Common Vulnerabilities and the Utility of Shared Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkinson, R. W.; Harlem, P. W.; Meeder, J.

2014-12-01

We simulate the vulnerability of all 35 Florida coastal counties to the ongoing Anthropocene marine transgression unconstrained by the artificial end date of year 2100. Coastal submergence was emulated using a 'bathtub model' and rising sea level associated with an atmospheric temperature increase of +1 oC to +4 oC (see Levermann et al. [1]). Simulation results are organized into seven regions, each representing an area of common vulnerability characterized in this study as high (9% to 30% land loss), higher (16 to 68% land loss) and highest (48% to 97% land loss). This grouping provides a logical basis for establishing or re-enforcing collaboration based upon a common threat and the utility of shared technical and financial resources. Our bathtub model assumes Florida terrain is simply submerged as the shoreline migrates across a static landscape without change in the physical and biological materials subject to marine transgression. However, geologic studies of past and present Florida shorelines indicate the rate of rise is as important as the magnitude when predicting coastal response. To determine the utility of the bathtub model as a representative simulation of Florida's response to future sea level rise, we considered Florida's coastal response to varying rates of sea level rise over the last 14,000 years. Available data clearly demonstrate predicted rates of sea level rise will result in widespread submergence; the rate of rise will be too fast to be offset by the stabilizing forces of biogenic or physical sediment accumulation. Hence the magnitude of land loss and associated shoreline retreat in each of the seven Florida regions - and likely other coastal zones in the southeast U.S. - will be solely a function of topographic elevation and can therefore be reasonably forecast using a bathtub model. While our focus is on Florida's coastal counties, we recognize in some regions the effects of sea level rise will extend further inland. In these areas, the regional boundaries could be expanded to include adjacent non-coastal counties. However, differences in the perception of risk and associated vulnerability between coastal and inland counties may complicate timely collaboration. References: [1] A. Levermann et al. (2013), The Multi-Millennial Sea-Level Commitment of Global Warming, doi:10.1073/pnas.1219414110.

Effect of specific pathways to 1.5°C global warming on the contribution of Greenland to sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humbert, A.; Rückamp, M.; Falk, U.; Frieler, K.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Here, we estimate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change in terms of different emission scenarios. We investigate the effect of different pathways of global warming on the dynamics and mass balance of the GrIS with a focus on scenarios in line with limiting global warming to 2.0° or even 1.5° by the end of 2100 (Paris Agreement). We particularly address the issue of peak and decline scenarios temporarily exceeding a given temperature limit. This kind of overshooting might have strong effects on the evolution of the GrIS. Furthermore, we investigate the long-term effects of different levels of climate change to estimate the threshold for stabilizing the GrIS. For modeling the flow dynamics and future evolution of the GrIS, we apply the thermo-mechanical coupled Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). The model is forced with anomalies for temperature and surface mass balance derived from different GCM data from the CMIP5 RCP2.6 scenario provided from the ISIMIP2b project. In order to obtain these anomalies from the GCM data, a surface energy balance model is applied.

Invariant polar bear habitat selection during a period of sea ice loss.

PubMed

Wilson, Ryan R; Regehr, Eric V; Rode, Karyn D; St Martin, Michelle

2016-08-17

Climate change is expected to alter many species' habitat. A species' ability to adjust to these changes is partially determined by their ability to adjust habitat selection preferences to new environmental conditions. Sea ice loss has forced polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to spend longer periods annually over less productive waters, which may be a primary driver of population declines. A negative population response to greater time spent over less productive water implies, however, that prey are not also shifting their space use in response to sea ice loss. We show that polar bear habitat selection in the Chukchi Sea has not changed between periods before and after significant sea ice loss, leading to a 75% reduction of highly selected habitat in summer. Summer was the only period with loss of highly selected habitat, supporting the contention that summer will be a critical period for polar bears as sea ice loss continues. Our results indicate that bears are either unable to shift selection patterns to reflect new prey use patterns or that there has not been a shift towards polar basin waters becoming more productive for prey. Continued sea ice loss is likely to further reduce habitat with population-level consequences for polar bears. © 2016 The Author(s).

Coastal wetlands: an integrated ecosystem approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perillo, G. M. E.; Wolanski, E.; Cahoon, D.R.; Brinson, M.M.

2009-01-01

Coastal wetlands are under a great deal of pressure from the dual forces of rising sea level and the intervention of human populations both along the estuary and in the river catchment. Direct impacts include the destruction or degradation of wetlands from land reclamation and infrastructures. Indirect impacts derive from the discharge of pollutants, changes in river flows and sediment supplies, land clearing, and dam operations. As sea level rises, coastal wetlands in most areas of the world migrate landward to occupy former uplands. The competition of these lands from human development is intensifying, making the landward migration impossible in many cases. This book provides an understanding of the functioning of coastal ecosystems and the ecological services that they provide, and suggestions for their management. In this book a CD is included containing color figures of wetlands and estuaries in different parts of the world.

Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica.

PubMed

Joughin, Ian; Smith, Benjamin E; Medley, Brooke

2014-05-16

Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Stress and deformation characteristics of sea ice in a high resolution numerical sea ice model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heorton, Harry; Feltham, Daniel; Tsamados, Michel

2017-04-01

The drift and deformation of sea ice floating on the polar oceans is due to the applied wind and ocean currents. The deformations of sea ice over ocean basin length scales have observable patterns; cracks and leads in satellite images and within the velocity fields generated from floe tracking. In a climate sea ice model the deformation of sea ice over ocean basin length scales is modelled using a rheology that represents the relationship between stresses and deformation within the sea ice cover. Here we investigate the link between observable deformation characteristics and the underlying internal sea ice stresses and force balance using the Los Alamos numerical sea ice climate model. In order to mimic laboratory experiments on the deformation of small cubes of sea ice we have developed an idealised square domain that tests the model response at spatial resolutions of up to 500m. We use the Elastic Anisotropic Plastic and Elastic Viscous Plastic rheologies, comparing their stability over varying resolutions and time scales. Sea ice within the domain is forced by idealised winds in order to compare the confinement of wind stresses and internal sea ice stresses. We document the characteristic deformation patterns of convergent, divergent and rotating stress states.

Lesions and behavior associated with forced copulation of juvenile Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardsi) by southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, H.S.; Oates, S.C.; Staedler, M.M.; Tinker, M.T.; Jessup, David A.; Harvey, J.T.; Miller, M.A.

2010-01-01

Nineteen occurrences of interspecific sexual behavior between male southern sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) and juvenile Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina richardsi) were reported in Monterey Bay, California, between 2000 and 2002. At least three different male sea otters were observed harassing, dragging, guarding, and copulating with harbor seals for up to 7 d postmortem. Carcasses of 15 juvenile harbor seals were recovered, and seven were necropsied in detail by a veterinary pathologist. Necropsy findings from two female sea otters that were recovered dead from male sea otters exhibiting similar behavior are also presented to facilitate a comparison of lesions. The most frequent lesions included superficial skin lacerations; hemorrhage around the nose, eyes, flippers, and perineum; and traumatic corneal erosions or ulcers. The harbor seals sustained severe genital trauma, ranging from vaginal perforation to vagino-cervical transection, and colorectal perforations as a result of penile penetration. One harbor seal developed severe pneumoperitoneum subsequent to vaginal perforation, which was also observed in both female sea otters and has been reported as a postcoital lesion in humans. This study represents the first description of lesions resulting from forced copulation of harbor seals by sea otters and is also the first report of pneumoperitoneum secondary to forced copulation in a nonhuman animal. Possible explanations for this behavior are discussed in the context of sea otter biology and population demographics.

Impact of increasing antarctic glacial freshwater release on regional sea-ice cover in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merino, Nacho; Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Le Sommer, Julien; Goosse, Hugues; Mathiot, Pierre; Durand, Gael

2018-01-01

The sensitivity of Antarctic sea-ice to increasing glacial freshwater release into the Southern Ocean is studied in a series of 31-year ocean/sea-ice/iceberg model simulations. Glaciological estimates of ice-shelf melting and iceberg calving are used to better constrain the spatial distribution and magnitude of freshwater forcing around Antarctica. Two scenarios of glacial freshwater forcing have been designed to account for a decadal perturbation in glacial freshwater release to the Southern Ocean. For the first time, this perturbation explicitly takes into consideration the spatial distribution of changes in the volume of Antarctic ice shelves, which is found to be a key component of changes in freshwater release. In addition, glacial freshwater-induced changes in sea ice are compared to typical changes induced by the decadal evolution of atmospheric states. Our results show that, in general, the increase in glacial freshwater release increases Antarctic sea ice extent. But the response is opposite in some regions like the coastal Amundsen Sea, implying that distinct physical mechanisms are involved in the response. We also show that changes in freshwater forcing may induce large changes in sea-ice thickness, explaining about one half of the total change due to the combination of atmospheric and freshwater changes. The regional contrasts in our results suggest a need for improving the representation of freshwater sources and their evolution in climate models.

Adjustments of a global Finite-Element Sea Ice Ocean Model configuration to improve the general ocean circulation in the North Pacific and its marginal seas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholz, Patrick; Lohmann, Gerrit

2017-04-01

The sub-Arctic oceans like the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea, the Labrador Sea or the Greenland- Irminger-Norwegian (GIN) Sea react particularly sensitive to global climate changes and have the potential to reversely regulate climate change by CO2 uptake in the other areas of the world. So far, the natural processes in the Arctic and Subarctic system, especially over the Pacific realm, remain poorly understood in terms of numerical modeling. As such, in this study we focus on the North Pacific and its adjacent marginal seas (e.g. the Sea of Okhotsk, the Bering Sea and the Sea of Japan), which have nowadays a significant role in the climate system of the Northwest Pacific by influencing the atmospheric and oceanic circulation as well as the hydrology of the Pacific water masses. The Sea of Okhotsk, in particular, is characterized by a highly dynamical sea-ice coverage, where, in autumn and winter, due to massive sea ice formation and brine rejection, the Sea of Okhotsk Intermediate Water (SOIW) is formed which contributes to the mid-depth (500-1000m) water layer of the North Pacific known as newly formed North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW). By employing a Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM), in a global configuration, but with high resolution over the marginal seas of the Northwest Pacific Ocean ( 7 km), we tested different meshes and forcing improvements to correct the general ocean circulation in the North Pacific realm towards a more realistic pattern. By using different forcing data (e.g. CORE2, ERA-40/interim, CCMP-correction), adapting the mesh resolutions in the tropical and subtropical North Pacific and changing the bathymetry over important inflow straits (e.g. Amukta Passage, Kruzenstern Strait), we show that the better results are obtained (when compared with observational data) via a combination of CCMP corrected COREv2 forcing with increased resolution in the pathway of the Kuroshio Extension Current and Northern Equatorial Current.

Impact of using scatterometer and altimeter data on storm surge forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajo, Marco; De Biasio, Francesco; Umgiesser, Georg; Vignudelli, Stefano; Zecchetto, Stefano

2017-05-01

Satellite data are rarely used in storm surge models because of the lack of established methodologies. Nevertheless, they can provide useful information on surface wind and sea level, which can potentially improve the forecast. In this paper satellite wind data are used to correct the bias of wind originating from a global atmospheric model, while satellite sea level data are used to improve the initial conditions of the model simulations. In a first step, the capability of global winds (biased and unbiased) to adequately force a storm surge model are assessed against that of a high resolution local wind. Then, the added value of direct assimilation of satellite altimeter data in the storm surge model is tested. Eleven storm surge events, recorded in Venice from 2008 to 2012, are simulated using different configurations of wind forcing and altimeter data assimilation. Focusing on the maximum surge peak, results show that the relative error, averaged over the eleven cases considered, decreases from 13% to 7%, using both the unbiased wind and assimilating the altimeter data, while, if the high resolution local wind is used to force the hydrodynamic model, the altimeter data assimilation reduces the error from 9% to 6%. Yet, the overall capabilities in reproducing the surge in the first day of forecast, measured by the correlation and by the rms error, improve only with the use of the unbiased global wind and not with the use of high resolution local wind and altimeter data assimilation.

Estimation of the uncertainty of a climate model using an ensemble simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barth, A.; Mathiot, P.; Goosse, H.

2012-04-01

The atmospheric forcings play an important role in the study of the ocean and sea-ice dynamics of the Southern Ocean. Error in the atmospheric forcings will inevitably result in uncertain model results. The sensitivity of the model results to errors in the atmospheric forcings are studied with ensemble simulations using multivariate perturbations of the atmospheric forcing fields. The numerical ocean model used is the NEMO-LIM in a global configuration with an horizontal resolution of 2°. NCEP reanalyses are used to provide air temperature and wind data to force the ocean model over the last 50 years. A climatological mean is used to prescribe relative humidity, cloud cover and precipitation. In a first step, the model results is compared with OSTIA SST and OSI SAF sea ice concentration of the southern hemisphere. The seasonal behavior of the RMS difference and bias in SST and ice concentration is highlighted as well as the regions with relatively high RMS errors and biases such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and near the ice-edge. Ensemble simulations are performed to statistically characterize the model error due to uncertainties in the atmospheric forcings. Such information is a crucial element for future data assimilation experiments. Ensemble simulations are performed with perturbed air temperature and wind forcings. A Fourier decomposition of the NCEP wind vectors and air temperature for 2007 is used to generate ensemble perturbations. The perturbations are scaled such that the resulting ensemble spread matches approximately the RMS differences between the satellite SST and sea ice concentration. The ensemble spread and covariance are analyzed for the minimum and maximum sea ice extent. It is shown that errors in the atmospheric forcings can extend to several hundred meters in depth near the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.

The characteristics and dynamics of wave-driven flow across a platform coral reef in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lentz, S. J.; Churchill, J. H.; Davis, K. A.; Farrar, J. T.; Pineda, J.; Starczak, V.

2016-02-01

Current dynamics across a platform reef in the Red Sea near Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, are examined using 18 months of current profile, pressure, surface wave, and wind observations. The platform reef is 700 m long, 200 m across with spatial and temporal variations in water depth over the reef ranging from 0.6 to 1.6 m. Surface waves breaking at the seaward edge of the reef cause a 2-10 cm setup of sea level that drives cross-reef currents of 5-20 cm s-1. Bottom stress is a significant component of the wave setup balance in the surf zone. Over the reef flat, where waves are not breaking, the cross-reef pressure gradient associated with wave setup is balanced by bottom stress. The quadratic drag coefficient for the depth-average flow decreases with increasing water depth from Cda = 0.17 in 0.4 m of water to Cda = 0.03 in 1.2 m of water. The observed dependence of the drag coefficient on water depth is consistent with open-channel flow theory and a hydrodynamic roughness of zo = 0.06 m. A simple one-dimensional model driven by incident surface waves and wind stress accurately reproduces the observed depth-averaged cross-reef currents and a portion of the weaker along-reef currents over the focus reef and two other Red Sea platform reefs. The model indicates the cross-reef current is wave forced and the along-reef current is partially wind forced.

The Offlap Break Position Vs Sea Level: A Discussion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tropeano, M.; Pieri, P.; Pomar, L.; Sabato, L.

Sedimentary lithosomes with subhorizontal topsets, basinward prograding foresets and subhorizontal bottomsets are common in the geologic record, and most of them display similar bedding architectures and/or seismic reflection patterns (i.e. Gylbert- type deltas and shelf wedges). Nevertheless, in shallow marine settings these bodies may form in distinct sedimentary environments and they result from different sed- imentary processes. The offlap break (topset edge) occurs in relation to the posi- tion of baselevel and two main groups of lithosomes can be differentiated with re- spect to the position of the offlap break within the shelf profile. The baselevel of the first group is the sea level (or lake level); the topsets are mainly composed by continental- or very-shallow-water sedimentary facies and the offlap break practi- cally corresponds to the shoreline. Exemples of these lithosomes are high-constructive deltas (river-dominated deltas) and prograding beaches. For the second group, base- level corresponds to the base of wave/tide traction, and their topsets are mostly composed by shoreface/nearshore deposits. Examples of these lithosomes are high- destructive deltas (wave/tide-dominated deltas) and infralittoral prograding wedges (i.e Hernandez-Molina et al., 2000). The offlap break corresponds to the shelf edge (shoreface edge), which is located at the transition between nearshore and offshore set- tings, where a terrace prodelta- or transition-slope may develop (Pomar &Tropeano, 2001). Two main problems derive from these alternative interpretations of shallow- marine seaward prograding lithosomes: 1) both in ancient sedimentary shallow-marine successios (showing seaward prograding foresets) and in high resolution seismic pro- files (showing shelf wedges), the offlap break is commonly considered to correspond to the sea-level (shoreline) and used to inferr paleo sea-level positions and to construct sea-level curves. Without a good facies control, this use of the offlap break might cause a misinterpretation of the ancient sea-level positions and the inferred relative sea-level changes. 2) both baselevels, the sea level and the wave/tide base, govern sedimentary accumulation in wave/tide dominated shelves and, consequently, two offlap breaks may coexist (beach edge and shoreface edge) in shallow-marine depositional profiles (Carter et al., 1991). In this setting, two seaward-clinobedded lithosomes, separated by an unconformity, may develop during relative still-stand or falls of the sea-level (Hill et al., 1998). In this case, the two stacked lithosomes could be misinterpreted as two different systems tracts, or sequences, and it could led to the construction of an 1 uncorrect curve of sea-level changes. Carter R.M., Abbott S.T., Fulthorpe C.S., Haywick D.W. and Henderson R.A. (1991): Application of global sea-level and sequence-stratigraphic models in Southern Hemi- sphere Neogene strata from New Zealand. Sp. Publ. IAS, 12, 41-65. Hernández- Molina F.J., Fernández-Salas L.M., Lobo F., Somoza L., Diaz-del-Rio V. and Alver- inho Dias J.M. (2000): The infralittoral prograding wedge: a new large-scale prograda- tional sedimentary body in shallow marine environments. Geo-Marine Letters, 20, 109-117. Hill P.R., Longuépée H. and Roberge M. (1998). Live from Canada: forced regression in action; deltaic shoreface sandbodies being formed. Abstracts, 15th Int. Cong. IAS, Alicante (Spain), 427-428. Pomar L. and Tropeano M. (2001). The Cal- carenite di Gravina Formation in Matera (southern Italy): new insights for coarse- grained, large-scale, cross-bedded bodies encased in offshore deposits. AAPG Bull., 85, 661-689. 2

Landscape evolution of Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jamieson, S.S.R.; Sugden, D.E.

2007-01-01

shelf before retreating to its present dimensions at ~13.5 Ma. Subsequent changes in ice extent have been forced mainly by sea-level change. Weathering rates of exposed bedrock have been remarkably slow at high elevations around the margin of East Antarctica under the hyperarid polar climate of the last ~13.5 Ma, offering potential for a long quantitative record of ice-sheet evolution with techniques such as cosmogenic isotope analysis

The Onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Within an Aquaplanet Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colon, Edward; Lindesay, James; Suarez, Max

1997-01-01

A series of numerical experiments using a two-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) were performed for the purpose of investigating the coupling between sea surface temperature (SST) profile and the onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The AGCM was modified to run as an aquaplane with all seasonal forcing removed. SST distributions based on the New Global Sea-Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (GISST) Data Set for 1903-1994 were generated then modified to vary the north-south gradient and tropical temperatures. It was found that the MJO signal did not depend on the SST temperature gradients but rather on the absolute temperature of the equatorial region, EOF analysis revealed that the SST distribution which generated the strongest MJO signal produced a periodic fluctuation in velocity potential at the 250 millibar level with a phase speed of 15 m/s, and a periodicity of 30 days which falls within the shortest limit of observed oscillations. This distribution also possessed the coolest equatorial SSTs which suggests that increased stability in the atmosphere favors the occurrence of organized MJO propagation.

The effects of tectonic deformation and sediment allocation on shelf habitats and megabenthic distribution and diversity in southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switzer, Ryan D.; Parnell, P. Ed; Leichter, James L.; Driscoll, Neal W.

2016-02-01

Landscape and seascape structures are typically complex and manifest as patch mosaics within characteristic biomes, bordering one another in gradual or abrupt ecotones. The underlying patch structure in coastal shelf ecosystems is driven by the interaction of tectonic, sedimentary, and sea level dynamic processes. Animals and plants occupy and interact within these mosaics. Terrestrial landscape ecological studies have shown that patch structure is important for ecological processes such as foraging, connectivity, predation, and species dynamics. The importance of patch structure for marine systems is less clear because far fewer pattern-process studies have been conducted in these systems. For many coastal shelf systems, there is a paucity of information on how species occupy shelf seascapes, particularly for seascapes imbued with complex patch structure and ecotones that are common globally due to tectonic activity. Here, we present the results of a study conducted along a myriameter-scale gradient of bottom and sub-bottom geological forcing altered by tectonic deformation, sea level transgression and sediment allocation. The resulting seascape is dominated by unconsolidated sediments throughout, but also exhibits increasing density and size of outcropping patches along a habitat patch gradient forced by the erosion of a sea level transgressive surface that has been deformed and tilted by tectonic forcing. A combination of sub-bottom profiling, multibeam bathymetry, and ROV surveys of the habitats and the demersal megafauna occupying the habitats indicate (1) significant beta diversity along this gradient, (2) biological diversity does not scale with habitat diversity, and (3) species occupy the patches disproportionately (non-linearly) with regard to the proportional availability of their preferred habitats. These results indicate that shelf habitat patch structure modulates species specific processes and interactions with other species. Further studies are needed to examine experimentally the mechanics of how patch structure modulates ecological processes in shelf systems. Our results also provide further support for including multiple spatial scales of patch structure for the application of remote habitat sensing as a surrogate for biological community structure.

The role of remote wind forcing in the subinertial current variability in the central and northern parts of the South Brazil Bight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Marcelo; Castro, Belmiro Mendes

2018-06-01

Data analysis of continental shelf currents and coastal sea level, together with the application of a semi-analytical model, are used to estimate the importance of remote wind forcing on the subinertial variability of the current in the central and northern areas of the South Brazil Bight. Results from both the data analysis and from the semi-analytical model are robust in showing subinertial variability that propagates along-shelf leaving the coast to the left in accordance with theoretical studies of Continental Shelf Waves (CSW). Both the subinertial variability observed in along-shelf currents and sea level oscillations present different propagation speeds for the narrow northern part of the SBB ( 6-7 m/s) and the wide central SBB region ( 11 m/s), those estimates being in agreement with the modeled CSW propagation speed. On the inner and middle shelf, observed along-shelf subinertial currents show higher correlation coefficients with the winds located southward and earlier in time than with the local wind at the current meter mooring position and at the time of measurement. The inclusion of the remote (located southwestward) wind forcing improves the prediction of the subinertial currents when compared to the currents forced only by the local wind, since the along-shelf-modeled currents present correlation coefficients with observed along-shelf currents up to 20% higher on the inner and middle shelf when the remote wind is included. For most of the outer shelf, on the other hand, this is not observed since usually, the correlation between the currents and the synoptic winds is not statistically significant.

Self-organization and forcing templates in coastal barrier response to storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, E.

2015-12-01

When a storm event pushes water up and over a coastal barrier, cross-shore flow transports sediment from the barrier face to the back-barrier environment. This natural physical process is called "overwash", and "washover" is the sedimentary deposit it forms. Overwash and washover support critical coastal habitats, and enable barriers to maintain their height and width relative to rising sea level. On developed barrier coasts, overwash constitutes a natural hazard, which sea-level rise will exacerbate. Overwash is also a prerequisite for barrier breaching and coastal flooding. Predicting occurrence and characteristics of overwash and washover has significant societal value. Hazard models typically assume that pre-storm barrier morphology determines how the barrier changes during a storm. However, classic work has documented the absence of a relationship between pre/post-storm topography in some cases, and has also identified rhythmic patterns in washover alongshore. Previous explanations for these spatial patterns have looked to forcing templates, forms that get imprinted in the barrier shape. An alternative explanation is that washover patterns self-organize, emerging from feedbacks between water flow and sediment transport. Self-organization and forcing templates are often framed as mutually exclusive, but patterns likely form across a continuum of conditions. Here, I use data from a new physical experiment to suggest that spatial patterns in washover can self-organize within the limit of a forcing template of some critical "strength", beyond which pre/post-storm morphologies are highly correlated. Quantifying spatial patterns in washover deposits opens exciting questions regarding coastal morphodynamic response to storms. Measurement of relative template strength over extended spatial (and temporal) scales has the potential to improve hazard assessment and prediction, particularly where template strength is low and self-organization dominates barrier change.

The role of remote wind forcing in the subinertial current variability in the central and northern parts of the South Brazil Bight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Marcelo; Castro, Belmiro Mendes

2018-05-01

Data analysis of continental shelf currents and coastal sea level, together with the application of a semi-analytical model, are used to estimate the importance of remote wind forcing on the subinertial variability of the current in the central and northern areas of the South Brazil Bight. Results from both the data analysis and from the semi-analytical model are robust in showing subinertial variability that propagates along-shelf leaving the coast to the left in accordance with theoretical studies of Continental Shelf Waves (CSW). Both the subinertial variability observed in along-shelf currents and sea level oscillations present different propagation speeds for the narrow northern part of the SBB ( 6-7 m/s) and the wide central SBB region ( 11 m/s), those estimates being in agreement with the modeled CSW propagation speed. On the inner and middle shelf, observed along-shelf subinertial currents show higher correlation coefficients with the winds located southward and earlier in time than with the local wind at the current meter mooring position and at the time of measurement. The inclusion of the remote (located southwestward) wind forcing improves the prediction of the subinertial currents when compared to the currents forced only by the local wind, since the along-shelf-modeled currents present correlation coefficients with observed along-shelf currents up to 20% higher on the inner and middle shelf when the remote wind is included. For most of the outer shelf, on the other hand, this is not observed since usually, the correlation between the currents and the synoptic winds is not statistically significant.

Relative influences of the metocean forcings on the drifting ice pack and estimation of internal ice stress gradients in the Labrador Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turnbull, I. D.; Torbati, R. Z.; Taylor, R. S.

2017-07-01

Understanding the relative influences of the metocean forcings on the drift of sea ice floes is a crucial component to the overall characterization of an ice environment and to developing an understanding of the factors controlling the ice dynamics. In addition, estimating the magnitude of the internal stress gradients on drifting sea ice floes generated by surrounding ice cover is important for modeling operations, informing the design of offshore structures and vessels in ice environments, and for the proper calibration of Discrete Element Models (DEM) of fields of drifting ice floes. In the spring of 2015 and 2016, four sea ice floes offshore Makkovik, Labrador were tagged with satellite-linked ice tracking buoys along with one satellite-linked weather station on each floe to transmit wind speed and direction. Twenty satellite-linked Lagrangian surface ocean current tracking buoys were also deployed in the open water adjacent to the targeted ice floes. In this paper, the dynamics of the four ice floes are explored in terms of the relative proportions which were forced by the wind, current, sea surface topography, Coriolis, and internal stress gradients. The internal ice stress gradients are calculated as residuals between the observed accelerations of the floes as measured by the tracking buoys and the sums of the other metocean forcings. Results show that internal ice stress gradients accounted for up to 50% of the observed forcing on the floes, and may have reached up to around 0.19 kPa.

Natural and human-induced driving factors in the evolution of tidal channels: case studies in the Venice Lagoon (Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzetto, Federica

2013-04-01

Coastal wetlands are largely affected by a complex variety of both natural and anthropogenic factors, which induce evident, often irreversible, geomorphological transformations. In particular, this research focuses on the main processes that influence the evolution of tidal channels in salt marshes and shows the results derived from the analysis of some case studies in the Venice Lagoon (northwestern Adriatic Sea, Italy). Here tidal network has been recognized as significantly sensitive to sea-level rise and tide oscillations (Rizzetto and Tosi, 2011; Rizzetto and Tosi, 2012), but it is also vulnerable to human impact. The sites were selected in areas characterized by low anthropogenic pressure to prevent strong human interferences from completely masking the effects of natural forces. The interpretation of a large number of high-resolution aerial photographs, taken since the mid 1930s, allowed identifying in detail tidal channel evolution, both in the long- and in the short-term. The observation of historical and recent topographic maps completed the study and provided other important data to define the modifications occurred in the past two centuries. The channel planform changes were determined through the morphometric analysis of the tidal network, carried out using a Geographic Information System software. These modifications were interpreted in the light of sea-level oscillations (i.e. relative sea-level rise and strength/frequency of high tides, which are increasing owing to climate changes), variations of sediment supply, and human activities occurred in the past century. The joint analysis of all the data allowed distinguishing the changes induced by both relative sea-level rise and high tides on planform pattern and evolution of tidal channels, and identifying the effects of human interferences, which magnified the impact of natural factors (e.g. groundwater exploitation responsible for high subsidence rates between 1950 and 1970 and, consequently, for an increase of relative sea-level rise in the same period) and/or produced other hydrodynamic, morphological, sedimentological modifications in the salt marshes, often resulting in erosion. References Rizzetto F., Tosi L., 2011. Aptitude of modern salt marshes to counteract relative sea-level rise, Venice Lagoon (Italy). Geology, 39 (8), 755-758. doi: 10.1130/G31736.1. Rizzetto F., Tosi L., 2012. Rapid response of tidal channel networks to sea-level variations (Venice Lagoon, Italy). Global and Planetary Change, 92-93, 191-197, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.05.022.

Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Sneh; Kar, Sarat C.

2018-02-01

Coupled ocean atmosphere global climate models are increasingly being used for seasonal scale simulation of the South Asian monsoon. In these models, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) evolve as coupled air-sea interaction process. However, sensitivity experiments with various SST forcing can only be done in an atmosphere-only model. In this study, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution has been used to examine the mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing on the monsoon circulation and rainfall. The model has been integrated (ensemble) with observed, climatological and ENSO SST forcing to document the mechanism on how the South Asian monsoon responds to basin-wide SST variations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The model simulations indicate that the internal variability gets modulated by the SSTs with warming in the Pacific enhancing the ensemble spread over the monsoon region as compared to cooling conditions. Anomalous easterly wind anomalies cover the Indian region both at 850 and 200 hPa levels during El Niño years. The locations and intensity of Walker and Hadley circulations are altered due to ENSO SST forcing. These lead to reduction of monsoon rainfall over most parts of India during El Niño events compared to La Niña conditions. However, internally generated variability is a major source of uncertainty in the model-simulated climate.

Operation Stabilise: U.S. Joint Force Operations in East Timor

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-04-01

September 1999, while deliberating the issue, Adm Blair designated the USS Mobile Bay (CG 53) and the USNS Kilauea (T-AE 26) as Joint Task Force-Timor Sea...Timor Sea Operations, 7th Fleet, Pacific Fleet § USS MOBILE BAY (CG 53), CJTF TSO (CAPT Edward Rogers, USN) § USNS KILAUEA (T-AE 26) § USNS SAN JOSE (T

Department of the Navy 1994 Posture Statement. ’Revolutionizing Our Naval Forces’

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-01-01

heavy metals . "* Marine biochemistry and remediation of harbor sediments . "* Vessel anti-fouling coatings based on environmentally benign compounds...Naval: and Coast Guard assets, often in company with foreign navies, are performing Maritime Interception Operations in-theRed Sea and Northern Arabian ...FROM THE SEA : NAVAL FORCES IN ACTION ......................... 7 NATIONAL COMMAND AUTHORITIES ................................. 8

Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, Paul; Blackport, Russell

2017-04-01

In the coupled climate system, projected global warming drives extensive sea-ice loss, but sea-ice loss drives warming that amplifies and can be confounded with the global warming process. This makes it challenging to cleanly attribute the atmospheric circulation response to sea-ice loss within coupled earth-system model (ESM) simulations of greenhouse warming. In this study, many centuries of output from coupled ocean/atmosphere/land/sea-ice ESM simulations driven separately by sea-ice albedo reduction and by projected greenhouse-dominated radiative forcing are combined to cleanly isolate the hemispheric scale response of the circulation to sea-ice loss. To isolate the sea-ice loss signal, a pattern scaling approach is proposed in which the local multidecadal mean atmospheric response is assumed to be separately proportional to the total sea-ice loss and to the total low latitude ocean surface warming. The proposed approach estimates the response to Arctic sea-ice loss with low latitude ocean temperatures fixed and vice versa. The sea-ice response includes a high northern latitude easterly zonal wind response, an equatorward shift of the eddy driven jet, a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, an anticyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over coastal Eurasia, a cyclonic sea level pressure anomaly over the North Pacific, and increased wintertime precipitation over the west coast of North America. Many of these responses are opposed by the response to low-latitude surface warming with sea ice fixed. However, both sea-ice loss and low latitude surface warming act in concert to reduce storm track strength throughout the mid and high latitudes. The responses are similar in two related versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research earth system models, apart from the stratospheric polar vortex response. Evidence is presented that internal variability can easily contaminate the estimates if not enough independent climate states are used to construct them. References: Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2017: Isolating the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in the coupled climate system. J. Climate, in press. Blackport, R. and P. Kushner, 2016: The Transient and Equilibrium Climate Response to Rapid Summertime Sea Ice Loss in CCSM4. J. Climate, 29, 401-417, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0284.1.

The ocean mixed layer under Southern Ocean sea-ice: seasonal cycle and forcing.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Violaine, P.; Sallee, J. B.; Schmidtko, S.; Roquet, F.; Charrassin, J. B.

2016-02-01

The mixed-layer at the surface of the ocean is the gateway for all exchanges between air and sea. A vast area of the Southern Ocean is however seasonally capped by sea-ice, which alters this gateway and the characteristic the ocean mixed-layer. The interaction between the ocean mixed-layer and sea-ice plays a key role for water-mass formation and circulation, carbon cycle, sea-ice dynamics, and ultimately for the climate as a whole. However, the structure and characteristics of the mixed layer, as well as the processes responsible for its evolution, are poorly understood due to the lack of in-situ observations and measurements. We urgently need to better understand the forcing and the characteristics of the ocean mixed-layer under sea-ice if we are to understand and predict the world's climate. In this study, we combine a range of distinct sources of observation to overcome this lack in our understanding of the Polar Regions. Working on Elephant Seal-derived data as well as ship-based observations and Argo float data, we describe the seasonal cycle of the characteristics and stability of the ocean mixed layer over the entire Southern Ocean (South of 40°S), and specifically under sea-ice. Mixed-layer budgets of heat and freshwater are used to investigate the main forcings of the mixed-layer seasonal cycle. The seasonal variability of sea surface salinity and temperature are primarily driven by surface processes, dominated by sea-ice freshwater flux for the salt budget, and by air-sea flux for the heat budget. Ekman advection, vertical diffusivity and vertical entrainment play only secondary role.Our results suggest that changes in regional sea-ice distribution or sea-ice seasonal cycle duration, as currently observed, would widely affect the buoyancy budget of the underlying mixed-layer, and impacts large-scale water-mass formation and transformation.