18 CFR 281.210 - Conflicting data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Conflicting data. 281.210 Section 281.210 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... Conflicting data. (a) Interstate pipelines. Notwithstanding any other provision of this subpart, if the...

18 CFR 281.210 - Conflicting data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Conflicting data. 281.210 Section 281.210 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... Conflicting data. (a) Interstate pipelines. Notwithstanding any other provision of this subpart, if the...

18 CFR 281.210 - Conflicting data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Conflicting data. 281.210 Section 281.210 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... Conflicting data. (a) Interstate pipelines. Notwithstanding any other provision of this subpart, if the...

18 CFR 281.210 - Conflicting data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Conflicting data. 281.210 Section 281.210 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION... Conflicting data. (a) Interstate pipelines. Notwithstanding any other provision of this subpart, if the...

78 FR 7296 - Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Small, Large, and Very Large...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-01

... prices will likely be forecasted using trends from the Energy Information Administration's most recent... forecasted energy prices, using shipment projections and average energy efficiency projections. DOE... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 10 CFR Part 431 [Docket No. EERE-2013-BT-STD-0007] RIN 1904-AC95 Energy...

Forecasting in Military Affairs. A Soviet View,

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-01-01

particular, forecasting models must take adequate account of time. This applies especially to models of processes of armed conflict, as the most complex and...too varied for permanently fixed rules to be applied to them."’ Combat situations are always more complex and varied than thosereferred to in various...writing this book was to make up for the lack of Soviet literature on the subject of forecasting as it applies specifically to military activities

Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

PubMed

Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

2013-10-01

Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Volume, Conservation and Instruction: A Classroom Based Solomon Four Group Study of Conflict.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rowell, J. A.; Dawson, C. J.

1981-01-01

Summarizes a study to widen the applicability of Piagetian theory-based conflict methodology from individual situations to entire classes. A Solomon four group design was used to study effects of conflict instruction on students' (N=127) ability to conserve volume of noncompressible matter and to apply that knowledge to gas volume. (Author/JN)

Warfare in biodiversity hotspots.

PubMed

Hanson, Thor; Brooks, Thomas M; Da Fonseca, Gustavo A B; Hoffmann, Michael; Lamoreux, John F; Machlis, Gary; Mittermeier, Cristina G; Mittermeier, Russell A; Pilgrim, John D

2009-06-01

Conservation efforts are only as sustainable as the social and political context within which they take place. The weakening or collapse of sociopolitical frameworks during wartime can lead to habitat destruction and the erosion of conservation policies, but in some cases, may also confer ecological benefits through altered settlement patterns and reduced resource exploitation. Over 90% of the major armed conflicts between 1950 and 2000 occurred within countries containing biodiversity hotspots, and more than 80% took place directly within hotspot areas. Less than one-third of the 34 recognized hotspots escaped significant conflict during this period, and most suffered repeated episodes of violence. This pattern was remarkably consistent over these 5 decades. Evidence from the war-torn Eastern Afromontane hotspot suggests that biodiversity conservation is improved when international nongovernmental organizations support local protected area staff and remain engaged throughout the conflict. With biodiversity hotspots concentrated in politically volatile regions, the conservation community must maintain continuous involvement during periods of war, and biodiversity conservation should be incorporated into military, reconstruction, and humanitarian programs in the world's conflict zones. ©2009 Society for Conservation Biology.

Fine-resolution conservation planning with limited climate-change information.

PubMed

Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L; Ando, Amy W; Guntenspergen, Glenn R

2017-04-01

Climate-change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation-planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk-diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate-change scenarios for carrying out fine-resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate-change information and full climate-change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate-change forecasts such that the best possible risk-return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate-change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Fine‐resolution conservation planning with limited climate‐change information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L.; Ando , Amy W.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2017-01-01

Climate‐change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation‐related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation‐planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk‐diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate‐change scenarios for carrying out fine‐resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk‐return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate‐change information and full climate‐change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate‐change forecasts such that the best possible risk‐return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate‐change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches.

7 CFR 612.1 - Purpose and scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION OPERATIONS SNOW SURVEYS AND WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS § 612.1 Purpose and scope. This... administration of a cooperative snow survey and water supply forecast program. The program provides agricultural water users and other water management groups in the western states area with water supply forecasts to...

A Conceptual Examination of College Athletes' Role Conflict through the Lens of Conservation of Resources Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wendling, Elodie; Kellison, Timothy B.; Sagas, Michael

2018-01-01

In this conceptual article, we seek to extend the domain of the conservation of resources (COR) theory to the collegiate student-athlete population in the context of academic-athletic role conflict and stress. Aside from reviewing the direct effects academic-athletic role conflict may have on psychological strain, this conceptual study also…

7 CFR 612.4 - Eligible individuals or groups.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION OPERATIONS SNOW SURVEYS AND WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS § 612.4 Eligible individuals or groups. (a) Any individual or group who is a significant water user and who would benefit from a water supply forecast may obtain forecasts from NRCS on a regular basis provided data are...

7 CFR 612.3 - Data collected and forecasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION OPERATIONS SNOW SURVEYS AND WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS § 612.3 Data..., and wind. (b) Water supply forecasts in the western states area are generally made monthly from.... Data sites generally include a snow course where both snow depth and water equivalent of snow are...

An empirically grounded agent based model for modeling directs, conflict detection and resolution operations in air traffic management.

PubMed

Bongiorno, Christian; Miccichè, Salvatore; Mantegna, Rosario N

2017-01-01

We present an agent based model of the Air Traffic Management socio-technical complex system aiming at modeling the interactions between aircraft and air traffic controllers at a tactical level. The core of the model is given by the conflict detection and resolution module and by the directs module. Directs are flight shortcuts that are given by air controllers to speed up the passage of an aircraft within a certain airspace and therefore to facilitate airline operations. Conflicts between flight trajectories can occur for two main reasons: either the planning of the flight trajectory was not sufficiently detailed to rule out all potential conflicts or unforeseen events during the flight require modifications of the flight plan that can conflict with other flight trajectories. Our model performs a local conflict detection and resolution procedure. Once a flight trajectory has been made conflict-free, the model searches for possible improvements of the system efficiency by issuing directs. We give an example of model calibration based on real data. We then provide an illustration of the capability of our model in generating scenario simulations able to give insights about the air traffic management system. We show that the calibrated model is able to reproduce the existence of a geographical localization of air traffic controllers' operations. Finally, we use the model to investigate the relationship between directs and conflict resolutions (i) in the presence of perfect forecast ability of controllers, and (ii) in the presence of some degree of uncertainty in flight trajectory forecast.

An empirically grounded agent based model for modeling directs, conflict detection and resolution operations in air traffic management

PubMed Central

Bongiorno, Christian; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2017-01-01

We present an agent based model of the Air Traffic Management socio-technical complex system aiming at modeling the interactions between aircraft and air traffic controllers at a tactical level. The core of the model is given by the conflict detection and resolution module and by the directs module. Directs are flight shortcuts that are given by air controllers to speed up the passage of an aircraft within a certain airspace and therefore to facilitate airline operations. Conflicts between flight trajectories can occur for two main reasons: either the planning of the flight trajectory was not sufficiently detailed to rule out all potential conflicts or unforeseen events during the flight require modifications of the flight plan that can conflict with other flight trajectories. Our model performs a local conflict detection and resolution procedure. Once a flight trajectory has been made conflict-free, the model searches for possible improvements of the system efficiency by issuing directs. We give an example of model calibration based on real data. We then provide an illustration of the capability of our model in generating scenario simulations able to give insights about the air traffic management system. We show that the calibrated model is able to reproduce the existence of a geographical localization of air traffic controllers’ operations. Finally, we use the model to investigate the relationship between directs and conflict resolutions (i) in the presence of perfect forecast ability of controllers, and (ii) in the presence of some degree of uncertainty in flight trajectory forecast. PMID:28419160

Cost-effective priorities for global mammal conservation.

PubMed

Carwardine, Josie; Wilson, Kerrie A; Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Naidoo, Robin; Iwamura, Takuya; Hajkowicz, Stefan A; Possingham, Hugh P

2008-08-12

Global biodiversity priority setting underpins the strategic allocation of conservation funds. In identifying the first comprehensive set of global priority areas for mammals, Ceballos et al. [Ceballos G, Ehrlich PR, Soberón J, Salazar I, Fay JP (2005) Science 309:603-607] found much potential for conflict between conservation and agricultural human activity. This is not surprising because, like other global priority-setting approaches, they set priorities without socioeconomic objectives. Here we present a priority-setting framework that seeks to minimize the conflicts and opportunity costs of meeting conservation goals. We use it to derive a new set of priority areas for investment in mammal conservation based on (i) agricultural opportunity cost and biodiversity importance, (ii) current levels of international funding, and (iii) degree of threat. Our approach achieves the same biodiversity outcomes as Ceballos et al.'s while reducing the opportunity costs and conflicts with agricultural human activity by up to 50%. We uncover shortfalls in the allocation of conservation funds in many threatened priority areas, highlighting a global conservation challenge.

Conservation businesses and conservation planning in a biological diversity hotspot.

PubMed

Di Minin, Enrico; Macmillan, Douglas Craig; Goodman, Peter Styan; Escott, Boyd; Slotow, Rob; Moilanen, Atte

2013-08-01

The allocation of land to biological diversity conservation competes with other land uses and the needs of society for development, food, and extraction of natural resources. Trade-offs between biological diversity conservation and alternative land uses are unavoidable, given the realities of limited conservation resources and the competing demands of society. We developed a conservation-planning assessment for the South African province of KwaZulu-Natal, which forms the central component of the Maputaland-Pondoland-Albany biological diversity hotspot. Our objective was to enhance biological diversity protection while promoting sustainable development and providing spatial guidance in the resolution of potential policy conflicts over priority areas for conservation at risk of transformation. The conservation-planning assessment combined spatial-distribution models for 646 conservation features, spatial economic-return models for 28 alternative land uses, and spatial maps for 4 threats. Nature-based tourism businesses were competitive with other land uses and could provide revenues of >US$60 million/year to local stakeholders and simultaneously help meeting conservation goals for almost half the conservation features in the planning region. Accounting for opportunity costs substantially decreased conflicts between biological diversity, agricultural use, commercial forestry, and mining. Accounting for economic benefits arising from conservation and reducing potential policy conflicts with alternative plans for development can provide opportunities for successful strategies that combine conservation and sustainable development and facilitate conservation action. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Biodiversity conservation and armed conflict: a warfare ecology perspective.

PubMed

Hanson, Thor

2018-04-23

The activities involved in preparing for, executing, and recovering from armed conflict are globally pervasive and consequential, with significant impacts on natural systems. Effects on biodiversity are predominantly negative, produced by direct and indirect battlefield impacts, as well as the general breakdown of social, economic, and governance systems during wartime. Certain conservation opportunities do occur, however, particularly on lands set aside for training exercises, buffer zones, and peace parks. Here, the relationship between armed conflict and biodiversity is reviewed using the temporal framework of warfare ecology, which defines warfare as an ongoing process of three overlapping stages: preparations, war (armed conflict), and postwar activities. Several themes emerge from recent studies, including a heightened awareness of biodiversity conservation on military lands, the potential for scientific and conservation engagement to mitigate negative biodiversity impacts in war zones, and the importance of the postwar period for incorporating biodiversity priorities into reconstruction and recovery efforts. Research limitations and knowledge gaps are also discussed. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Intentional systems management: managing forests for biodiversity.

Treesearch

A.B. Carey; B.R. Lippke; J. Sessions

1999-01-01

Conservation of biodiversity provides for economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Intentional management is designed to manage conflicts among groups with conflicting interests. Our goal was to ascertain if intentional management and principles of conservation of biodiversity could be combined into upland and riparian forest management strategies that would...

An interdisciplinary review of current and future approaches to improving human-predator relations.

PubMed

Pooley, S; Barua, M; Beinart, W; Dickman, A; Holmes, G; Lorimer, J; Loveridge, A J; Macdonald, D W; Marvin, G; Redpath, S; Sillero-Zubiri, C; Zimmermann, A; Milner-Gulland, E J

2017-06-01

In a world of shrinking habitats and increasing competition for natural resources, potentially dangerous predators bring the challenges of coexisting with wildlife sharply into focus. Through interdisciplinary collaboration among authors trained in the humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences, we reviewed current approaches to mitigating adverse human-predator encounters and devised a vision for future approaches to understanding and mitigating such encounters. Limitations to current approaches to mitigation include too much focus on negative impacts; oversimplified equating of levels of damage with levels of conflict; and unsuccessful technical fixes resulting from failure to engage locals, address hidden costs, or understand cultural (nonscientific) explanations of the causality of attacks. An emerging interdisciplinary literature suggests that to better frame and successfully mitigate negative human-predator relations conservation professionals need to consider dispensing with conflict as the dominant framework for thinking about human-predator encounters; work out what conflicts are really about (they may be human-human conflicts); unravel the historical contexts of particular conflicts; and explore different cultural ways of thinking about animals. The idea of cosmopolitan natures may help conservation professionals think more clearly about human-predator relations in both local and global context. These new perspectives for future research practice include a recommendation for focused interdisciplinary research and the use of new approaches, including human-animal geography, multispecies ethnography, and approaches from the environmental humanities notably environmental history. Managers should think carefully about how they engage with local cultural beliefs about wildlife, work with all parties to agree on what constitutes good evidence, develop processes and methods to mitigate conflicts, and decide how to monitor and evaluate these. Demand for immediate solutions that benefit both conservation and development favors dispute resolution and technical fixes, which obscures important underlying drivers of conflicts. If these drivers are not considered, well-intentioned efforts focused on human-wildlife conflicts will fail. © 2016 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Fishing for Novel Approaches to Ecosystem Service Forecasts

EPA Science Inventory

The ecosystem service concept provides a powerful framework for conserving species and the environments they depend upon. Describing current distributions of ecosystem services and forecasting their future distributions have therefore become central objectives in many conservati...

Minimizing conflict between recreation and nature conservation

Treesearch

David N. Cole

1993-01-01

Most greenways are created with multiple goals in mind. Two of the foremost are providing recreational opportunities and conserving nature. Although these two goals frequently enhance each other, sometimes pursuing both simultaneously can result in conflicts. In some cases, recreational use can so severely degrade an area that not only is the environment damaged but...

Promoting inclusive water governance and forecasting the structure of water consumption based on compositional data: A case study of Beijing.

PubMed

Wei, Yigang; Wang, Zhichao; Wang, Huiwen; Yao, Tang; Li, Yan

2018-09-01

Water is centrally important for agricultural security, environment, people's livelihoods, and socio-economic development, particularly in the face of extreme climate changes. Due to water shortages in many cities, the conflicts between various stakeholders and sectors over water use and allocation are becoming more common and intense. Effective inclusive governance of water use is critical for relieving water use conflicts. In addition, reliable forecasting of the structure of water usage among different sectors is a basic need for effective water governance planning. Although a large number of studies have attempted to forecast water use, little is known about the forecasted structure and trends of water use in the future. This paper aims to develop a forecasting model for the structure of water usage based on compositional data. Compositional data analysis is an effective approach for investigating the internal structure of a system. A host of data transformation methods and forecasting models were adopted and compared in order to derive the best-performing model. According to mean absolute percent error for compositional data (CoMAPE), a hyperspherical-transformation-based vector autoregression model for compositional data (VAR-DRHT) is the best-performing model. The proportions of the agricultural, industrial, domestic and environmental water will be 6.11%, 5.01%, 37.48% and 51.4% by 2020. Several recommendations for water inclusive development are provided to give a better account for the optimization of the water use structure, alleviation of water shortages, and improving stake holders' wellbeing. Overall, although we focus on groundwater, this study presents a powerful framework broadly applicable to resource management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anticipating Terrorist Safe Havens from Instability Induced Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shearer, Robert; Marvin, Brett

This chapter presents recent methods developed at the Center for Army Analysis to classify patterns of nation-state instability that lead to conflict. The ungoverned areas endemic to failed nation-states provide terrorist organizations with safe havens from which to plan and execute terrorist attacks. Identification of those states at risk for instability induced conflict should help to facilitate effective counter terrorism policy planning efforts. Nation-states that experience instability induced conflict are similar in that they share common instability factors that make them susceptible to experiencing conflict. We utilize standard pattern classification algorithms to identify these patterns. First, we identify features (political, military, economic and social) that capture the instability of a nation-state. Second, we forecast the future levels of these features for each nation-state. Third, we classify each future state’s conflict potential based upon the conflict level of those states in the past most similar to the future state.

Relative availability of natural prey versus livestock predicts landscape suitability for cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus in Botswana

PubMed Central

Winterbach, Christiaan W.; Boast, Lorraine K.; Klein, Rebecca; Somers, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Prey availability and human-carnivore conflict are strong determinants that govern the spatial distribution and abundance of large carnivore species and determine the suitability of areas for their conservation. For wide-ranging large carnivores such as cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), additional conservation areas beyond protected area boundaries are crucial to effectively conserve them both inside and outside protected areas. Although cheetahs prefer preying on wild prey, they also cause conflict with people by predating on especially small livestock. We investigated whether the distribution of cheetahs’ preferred prey and small livestock biomass could be used to explore the potential suitability of agricultural areas in Botswana for the long-term persistence of its cheetah population. We found it gave a good point of departure for identifying priority areas for land management, the threat to connectivity between cheetah populations, and areas where the reduction and mitigation of human-cheetah conflict is critical. Our analysis showed the existence of a wide prey base for cheetahs across large parts of Botswana’s agricultural areas, which provide additional large areas with high conservation potential. Twenty percent of wild prey biomass appears to be the critical point to distinguish between high and low probable levels of human-cheetah conflict. We identified focal areas in the agricultural zones where restoring wild prey numbers in concurrence with effective human-cheetah conflict mitigation efforts are the most immediate conservation strategies needed to maintain Botswana’s still large and contiguous cheetah population. PMID:26213646

Relative availability of natural prey versus livestock predicts landscape suitability for cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus in Botswana.

PubMed

Winterbach, Hanlie E K; Winterbach, Christiaan W; Boast, Lorraine K; Klein, Rebecca; Somers, Michael J

2015-01-01

Prey availability and human-carnivore conflict are strong determinants that govern the spatial distribution and abundance of large carnivore species and determine the suitability of areas for their conservation. For wide-ranging large carnivores such as cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), additional conservation areas beyond protected area boundaries are crucial to effectively conserve them both inside and outside protected areas. Although cheetahs prefer preying on wild prey, they also cause conflict with people by predating on especially small livestock. We investigated whether the distribution of cheetahs' preferred prey and small livestock biomass could be used to explore the potential suitability of agricultural areas in Botswana for the long-term persistence of its cheetah population. We found it gave a good point of departure for identifying priority areas for land management, the threat to connectivity between cheetah populations, and areas where the reduction and mitigation of human-cheetah conflict is critical. Our analysis showed the existence of a wide prey base for cheetahs across large parts of Botswana's agricultural areas, which provide additional large areas with high conservation potential. Twenty percent of wild prey biomass appears to be the critical point to distinguish between high and low probable levels of human-cheetah conflict. We identified focal areas in the agricultural zones where restoring wild prey numbers in concurrence with effective human-cheetah conflict mitigation efforts are the most immediate conservation strategies needed to maintain Botswana's still large and contiguous cheetah population.

Effects of using a posteriori methods for the conservation of integral invariants. [for weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takacs, Lawrence L.

1988-01-01

The nature and effect of using a posteriori adjustments to nonconservative finite-difference schemes to enforce integral invariants of the corresponding analytic system are examined. The method of a posteriori integral constraint restoration is analyzed for the case of linear advection, and the harmonic response associated with the a posteriori adjustments is examined in detail. The conservative properties of the shallow water system are reviewed, and the constraint restoration algorithm applied to the shallow water equations are described. A comparison is made between forecasts obtained using implicit and a posteriori methods for the conservation of mass, energy, and potential enstrophy in the complete nonlinear shallow-water system.

Correlations and forecast of death tolls in the Syrian conflict.

PubMed

Fujita, Kazuki; Shinomoto, Shigeru; Rocha, Luis E C

2017-11-16

The Syrian armed conflict has been ongoing since 2011 and has already caused thousands of deaths. The analysis of death tolls helps to understand the dynamics of the conflict and to better allocate resources and aid to the affected areas. In this article, we use information on the daily number of deaths to study temporal and spatial correlations in the data, and exploit this information to forecast events of deaths. We found that the number of violent deaths per day in Syria varies more widely than that in England in which non-violent deaths dominate. We have identified strong positive auto-correlations in Syrian cities and non-trivial cross-correlations across some of them. The results indicate synchronization in the number of deaths at different times and locations, suggesting respectively that local attacks are followed by more attacks at subsequent days and that coordinated attacks may also take place across different locations. Thus the analysis of high temporal resolution data across multiple cities makes it possible to infer attack strategies, warn potential occurrence of future events, and hopefully avoid further deaths.

Volume, conservation and instruction: A classroom based solomon four group study of conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowell, J. A.; Dawson, C. J.

The research reported is an attempt to widen the applicability of Piagetian theory-based conflict methodology from individual situations to whole classes. A Solomon four group experimental design augmented by a delayed posttest, was used to provide a controlled framework for studying the effects of conflict instruction on Grade 8 students' ability to conserve volume of noncompressible matter, and to apply that knowledge to gas volume. The results, reported for individuals and groups, show the methodology can be effective, particularly when instruction is preceded by a pretest. Immediate posttest differences in knowledge of gas volume between spontaneous (pretest) conservers and instructed conservers of volume of noncompressible matter were no longer in evidence on the delayed posttest. This observation together with the effects of pretesting and of the instructional sequence are shown to have a consistent Piagetian interpretation. Practical implications are discussed.

Conflict Resolution for Wind-Optimal Aircraft Trajectories in North Atlantic Oceanic Airspace with Wind Uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodionova, Olga; Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.

2016-01-01

Air traffic in the North Atlantic oceanic airspace (NAT) experiences very strong winds caused by jet streams. Flying wind-optimal trajectories increases individual flight efficiency, which is advantageous when operating in the NAT. However, as the NAT is highly congested during peak hours, a large number of potential conflicts between flights are detected for the sets of wind-optimal trajectories. Conflict resolution performed at the strategic level of flight planning can significantly reduce the airspace congestion. However, being completed far in advance, strategic planning can only use predicted environmental conditions that may significantly differ from the real conditions experienced further by aircraft. The forecast uncertainties result in uncertainties in conflict prediction, and thus, conflict resolution becomes less efficient. This work considers wind uncertainties in order to improve the robustness of conflict resolution in the NAT. First, the influence of wind uncertainties on conflict prediction is investigated. Then, conflict resolution methods accounting for wind uncertainties are proposed.

Stochastic Model of Seasonal Runoff Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, Roman; Watada, Leslie M.

1986-03-01

Each year the National Weather Service and the Soil Conservation Service issue a monthly sequence of five (or six) categorical forecasts of the seasonal snowmelt runoff volume. To describe uncertainties in these forecasts for the purposes of optimal decision making, a stochastic model is formulated. It is a discrete-time, finite, continuous-space, nonstationary Markov process. Posterior densities of the actual runoff conditional upon a forecast, and transition densities of forecasts are obtained from a Bayesian information processor. Parametric densities are derived for the process with a normal prior density of the runoff and a linear model of the forecast error. The structure of the model and the estimation procedure are motivated by analyses of forecast records from five stations in the Snake River basin, from the period 1971-1983. The advantages of supplementing the current forecasting scheme with a Bayesian analysis are discussed.

A Two-Study Examination of Work-Family Conflict, Production Deviance and Gender

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferguson, Merideth; Carlson, Dawn; Hunter, Emily M.; Whitten, Dwayne

2012-01-01

Building on the spillover and crossover literatures of work-family conflict and the theoretical framework of Conservation of Resources Theory (Hobfoll, 1989) we examine the effects of conflict on production deviance. Using a two-study constructive replication and extension design, we examine how partner work-to-family conflict contributes to job…

Modeling Aircraft Position and Conservatively Calculating Airspace Violations for an Autonomous Collision Awareness System for Unmanned Aerial Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueunten, Kevin K.

With the scheduled 30 September 2015 integration of Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) into the national airspace, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is concerned with UAS capabilities to sense and avoid conflicts. Since the operator is outside the cockpit, the proposed collision awareness plugin (CAPlugin), based on probability and error propagation, conservatively predicts potential conflicts with other aircraft and airspaces, thus increasing the operator's situational awareness. The conflict predictions are calculated using a forward state estimator (FSE) and a conflict calculator. Predicting an aircraft's position, modeled as a mixed Gaussian distribution, is the FSE's responsibility. Furthermore, the FSE supports aircraft engaged in the following three flight modes: free flight, flight path following and orbits. The conflict calculator uses the FSE result to calculate the conflict probability between an aircraft and airspace or another aircraft. Finally, the CAPlugin determines the highest conflict probability and warns the operator. In addition to discussing the FSE free flight, FSE orbit and the airspace conflict calculator, this thesis describes how each algorithm is implemented and tested. Lastly two simulations demonstrates the CAPlugin's capabilities.

Human-carnivore conflict in China: a review of current approaches with recommendations for improved management.

PubMed

Pettigrew, Melissa; Xie, Yan; Kang, Aili; Rao, Madhu; Goodrich, John; Liu, Tong; Berger, Joshua

2012-06-01

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) is a conservation concern that increasingly threatens the continued existence of some of the world's most endangered species. With an increase in human population, urban sprawl and subsequent encroachment on wild land, human and wildlife interaction has become inevitable. In the majority of cases, this interaction results in a negative outcome for humans, wildlife or both. In China, these key elements, along with a decrease in wild prey species, have resulted in the expansion of HWC encounters, and the need for alleviating this conflict has become a conservation priority. Loss of human life, livestock and/or crops is most often the catalysts that fuel HWC. Techniques to alleviate conflict around the world have included preventative measures and mitigation techniques, such as financial compensation and other incentive programs. Both types of measures have had variable success. We review the current status of human-carnivore conflict management in China, and, drawing lessons from around the globe, we make recommendations for improving conservation management in China. For example, an increase in law enforcement in nature reserves is vital to reducing human disturbance in prime carnivore habitat, thereby reducing conflict encounters. Also, modifications to current wildlife compensation programs, so that they are linked with preventative measures, will ensure that moral hazards are avoided. Furthermore, investigating the potential for a community self-financed insurance scheme to fund compensation and increasing efforts to restore wild prey populations will improve the outcome for wildlife conservation. Ultimately, HWC management in China will greatly benefit from an integrative approach. © 2012 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

Equity trade-offs in conservation decision making.

PubMed

Law, Elizabeth A; Bennett, Nathan J; Ives, Christopher D; Friedman, Rachel; Davis, Katrina J; Archibald, Carla; Wilson, Kerrie A

2018-04-01

Conservation decisions increasingly involve multiple environmental and social objectives, which result in complex decision contexts with high potential for trade-offs. Improving social equity is one such objective that is often considered an enabler of successful outcomes and a virtuous ideal in itself. Despite its idealized importance in conservation policy, social equity is often highly simplified or ill-defined and is applied uncritically. What constitutes equitable outcomes and processes is highly normative and subject to ethical deliberation. Different ethical frameworks may lead to different conceptions of equity through alternative perspectives of what is good or right. This can lead to different and potentially conflicting equity objectives in practice. We promote a more transparent, nuanced, and pluralistic conceptualization of equity in conservation decision making that particularly recognizes where multidimensional equity objectives may conflict. To help identify and mitigate ethical conflicts and avoid cases of good intentions producing bad outcomes, we encourage a more analytical incorporation of equity into conservation decision making particularly during mechanistic integration of equity objectives. We recommend that in conservation planning motivations and objectives for equity be made explicit within the problem context, methods used to incorporate equity objectives be applied with respect to stated objectives, and, should objectives dictate, evaluation of equity outcomes and adaptation of strategies be employed during policy implementation. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Balancing alternative land uses in conservation prioritization.

PubMed

Moilanen, Atte; Anderson, Barbara J; Eigenbrod, Felix; Heinemeyer, Andreas; Roy, David B; Gillings, Simon; Armsworth, Paul R; Gaston, Kevin J; Thomas, Chris D

2011-07-01

Pressure on ecosystems to provide various different and often conflicting services is immense and likely to increase. The impacts and success of conservation prioritization will be enhanced if the needs of competing land uses are recognized at the planning stage. We develop such methods and illustrate them with data about competing land uses in Great Britain, with the aim of developing a conservation priority ranking that balances between needs of biodiversity conservation, carbon storage, agricultural value, and urban development potential. While both carbon stocks and biodiversity are desirable features from the point of view of conservation, they compete with the needs of agriculture and urban development. In Britain the greatest conflicts exist between biodiversity and urban areas, while the largest carbon stocks occur mostly in Scotland in areas with low agricultural or urban pressure. In our application, we were able successfully to balance the spatial allocation of alternative land uses so that conflicts between them were much smaller than had they been developed separately. The proposed methods and software, Zonation, are applicable to structurally similar prioritization problems globally.

The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections.

PubMed

Benjamin, Daniel M; Budescu, David V

2018-01-01

Scientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline. Disagreement among climate projections is attributable to the complexity of climate models that differ in their structure, parameters, initial conditions, etc. We examine how different sources of uncertainty affect people's interpretation of, and reaction to, information about climate change by presenting participants forecasts from multiple experts. Participants viewed three types of sets of sea-level rise projections: (1) precise, but conflicting ; (2) imprecise , but agreeing, and (3) hybrid that were both conflicting and imprecise. They estimated the most likely sea-level rise, provided a range of possible values and rated the sets on several features - ambiguity, credibility, completeness, etc. In Study 1, everyone saw the same hybrid set. We found that participants were sensitive to uncertainty between sources, but not to uncertainty about which model was used. The impacts of conflict and imprecision were combined for estimation tasks and compromised for feature ratings . Estimates were closer to the experts' original projections, and sets were rated more favorably under imprecision. Estimates were least consistent with (narrower than) the experts in the hybrid condition, but participants rated the conflicting set least favorably. In Study 2, we investigated the hybrid case in more detail by creating several distinct interval sets that combine conflict and imprecision. Two factors drive perceptual differences: overlap - the structure of the forecast set (whether intersecting, nested, tangent, or disjoint) - and a symmetry - the balance of the set. Estimates were primarily driven by asymmetry, and preferences were primarily driven by overlap. Asymmetric sets were least consistent with the experts: estimated ranges were narrower, and estimates of the most likely value were shifted further below the set mean. Intersecting and nested sets were rated similarly to imprecision, and ratings of disjoint and tangent sets were rated like conflict. Our goal was to determine which underlying factors of information sets drive perceptions of uncertainty in consistent, predictable ways. The two studies lead us to conclude that perceptions of agreement require intersection and balance, and overly precise forecasts lead to greater perceptions of disagreement and a greater likelihood of the public discrediting and misinterpreting information.

The Role of Type and Source of Uncertainty on the Processing of Climate Models Projections

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel M.; Budescu, David V.

2018-01-01

Scientists agree that the climate is changing due to human activities, but there is less agreement about the specific consequences and their timeline. Disagreement among climate projections is attributable to the complexity of climate models that differ in their structure, parameters, initial conditions, etc. We examine how different sources of uncertainty affect people’s interpretation of, and reaction to, information about climate change by presenting participants forecasts from multiple experts. Participants viewed three types of sets of sea-level rise projections: (1) precise, but conflicting; (2) imprecise, but agreeing, and (3) hybrid that were both conflicting and imprecise. They estimated the most likely sea-level rise, provided a range of possible values and rated the sets on several features – ambiguity, credibility, completeness, etc. In Study 1, everyone saw the same hybrid set. We found that participants were sensitive to uncertainty between sources, but not to uncertainty about which model was used. The impacts of conflict and imprecision were combined for estimation tasks and compromised for feature ratings. Estimates were closer to the experts’ original projections, and sets were rated more favorably under imprecision. Estimates were least consistent with (narrower than) the experts in the hybrid condition, but participants rated the conflicting set least favorably. In Study 2, we investigated the hybrid case in more detail by creating several distinct interval sets that combine conflict and imprecision. Two factors drive perceptual differences: overlap – the structure of the forecast set (whether intersecting, nested, tangent, or disjoint) – and asymmetry – the balance of the set. Estimates were primarily driven by asymmetry, and preferences were primarily driven by overlap. Asymmetric sets were least consistent with the experts: estimated ranges were narrower, and estimates of the most likely value were shifted further below the set mean. Intersecting and nested sets were rated similarly to imprecision, and ratings of disjoint and tangent sets were rated like conflict. Our goal was to determine which underlying factors of information sets drive perceptions of uncertainty in consistent, predictable ways. The two studies lead us to conclude that perceptions of agreement require intersection and balance, and overly precise forecasts lead to greater perceptions of disagreement and a greater likelihood of the public discrediting and misinterpreting information. PMID:29636717

Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2013-01-01

[1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

Defining conservation priorities using fragmentation forecasts

Treesearch

David Wear; John Pye; Kurt H. Riitters

2004-01-01

Methods are developed for forecasting the effects of population and economic growth on the distribution of interior forest habitat. An application to the southeastern United States shows that models provide significant explanatory power with regard to the observed distribution of interior forest. Estimates for economic and biophysical variables are significant and...

Kickoff to Conflict: A Sequence Analysis of Intra-State Conflict-Preceding Event Structures

PubMed Central

D'Orazio, Vito; Yonamine, James E.

2015-01-01

While many studies have suggested or assumed that the periods preceding the onset of intra-state conflict are similar across time and space, few have empirically tested this proposition. Using the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System's domestic event data in Asia from 1998–2010, we subject this proposition to empirical analysis. We code the similarity of government-rebel interactions in sequences preceding the onset of intra-state conflict to those preceding further periods of peace using three different metrics: Euclidean, Levenshtein, and mutual information. These scores are then used as predictors in a bivariate logistic regression to forecast whether we are likely to observe conflict in neither, one, or both of the states. We find that our model accurately classifies cases where both sequences precede peace, but struggles to distinguish between cases in which one sequence escalates to conflict and where both sequences escalate to conflict. These findings empirically suggest that generalizable patterns exist between event sequences that precede peace. PMID:25951105

Identifying causal linkages between environmental variables and African conflicts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguy-Robertson, A. L.; Dartevelle, S.

2017-12-01

Environmental variables that contribute to droughts, flooding, and other natural hazards are often identified as factors contributing to conflict; however, few studies attempt to quantify these causal linkages. Recent research has demonstrated that the environment operates within a dynamical system framework and the influence of variables can be identified from convergent cross mapping (CCM) between shadow manifolds. We propose to use CCM to identify causal linkages between environmental variables and incidences of conflict. This study utilizes time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and MODIS satellite sensors processed using Google Earth Engine to aggregate country and regional trends. These variables are then compared to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project observations at similar scales. Results provide relative rankings of variables and their linkage to conflict. Being able to identify which factors contributed more strongly to a conflict can allow policy makers to prepare solutions to mitigate future crises. Knowledge of the primary environmental factors can lead to the identification of other variables to examine in the causal network influencing conflict.

Improving Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vermote, E.; Franch, B.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Claverie, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, J.; Sobrino, J. A.

2014-12-01

Wheat is the most important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include the Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: United States of America, Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest) while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

Games as Tools to Address Conservation Conflicts.

PubMed

Redpath, Steve M; Keane, Aidan; Andrén, Henrik; Baynham-Herd, Zachary; Bunnefeld, Nils; Duthie, A Bradley; Frank, Jens; Garcia, Claude A; Månsson, Johan; Nilsson, Lovisa; Pollard, Chris R J; Rakotonarivo, O Sarobidy; Salk, Carl F; Travers, Henry

2018-06-01

Conservation conflicts represent complex multilayered problems that are challenging to study. We explore the utility of theoretical, experimental, and constructivist approaches to games to help to understand and manage these challenges. We show how these approaches can help to develop theory, understand patterns in conflict, and highlight potentially effective management solutions. The choice of approach should be guided by the research question and by whether the focus is on testing hypotheses, predicting behaviour, or engaging stakeholders. Games provide an exciting opportunity to help to unravel the complexity in conflicts, while researchers need an awareness of the limitations and ethical constraints involved. Given the opportunities, this field will benefit from greater investment and development. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying Thiessen Polygon Catchment Areas and Gridded Population Weights to Estimate Conflict-Driven Population Changes in South Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, L.

2017-10-01

Recent violence in South Sudan produced significant levels of conflict-driven migration undermining the accuracy and utility of both national and local level population forecasts commonly used in demographic estimates, public health metrics and food security proxies. This article explores the use of Thiessen Polygons and population grids (Gridded Population of the World, WorldPop and LandScan) as weights for estimating the catchment areas for settlement locations that serve large populations of internally displaced persons (IDP), in order to estimate the county-level in- and out-migration attributable to conflict-driven displacement between 2014-2015. Acknowledging IDP totals improves internal population estimates presented by global population databases. Unlike other forecasts, which produce spatially uniform increases in population, accounting for displaced population reveals that 15 percent of counties (n = 12) increased in population over 20 percent, and 30 percent of counties (n = 24) experienced zero or declining population growth, due to internal displacement and refugee out-migration. Adopting Thiessen Polygon catchment zones for internal migration estimation can be applied to other areas with United Nations IDP settlement data, such as Yemen, Somalia, and Nigeria.

When Waves Collide: Future Conflict

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-01-01

predictions merely guesswork, and forecasts often nothing more than co- herent fiction masquerading as fact.2 Trends and megatrends , which are linear...transportation, on-site inspection, and environmental cleanup—including radi- ological, chemical, and biological —as well as enforcement of the

Conservation conflicts across Africa.

PubMed

Balmford, A; Moore, J L; Brooks, T; Burgess, N; Hansen, L A; Williams, P; Rahbek, C

2001-03-30

There is increasing evidence that areas of outstanding conservation importance may coincide with dense human settlement or impact. We tested the generality of these findings using 1 degree-resolution data for sub-Saharan Africa. We find that human population density is positively correlated with species richness of birds, mammals, snakes, and amphibians. This association holds for widespread, narrowly endemic, and threatened species and looks set to persist in the face of foreseeable population growth. Our results contradict earlier expectations of low conflict based on the idea that species richness decreases and human impact increases with primary productivity. We find that across Africa, both variables instead exhibit unimodal relationships with productivity. Modifying priority-setting to take account of human density shows that, at this scale, conflicts between conservation and development are not easily avoided, because many densely inhabited grid cells contain species found nowhere else.

Harmonizing recreational fisheries and conservation objectives for aquatic biodiversity in inland waters.

PubMed

Cowx, I G; Arlinghaus, R; Cooke, S J

2010-06-01

The importance of recreational fisheries to local and national economies, and as a generator of immense social welfare throughout the developed world, is well established. Development in the sector and its interaction with non-fishery-related nature conservation objectives for aquatic biodiversity, however, have the potential to generate conflict. This article reviews the intersection between recreational fisheries and nature conservation goals for aquatic biodiversity with specific reference to inland waters in industrialized countries, and the principal management activities and constraints that can lead to conflicts. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis was used to review the issues facing sectoral development and identify options for future advancement of recreational fisheries to ameliorate potential conflicts with nature conservation goals. It is concluded that reconciliation of recreational fisheries and modern conservation perspectives is both possible and desirable, because many conservation problems also benefit fisheries quality. Angler buy-in to conservation is probable if (1) management scales are small, (2) threats to conservation originate from outside the fisheries sectors and (3) ecological awareness for the conservation problem is high. If these aspects are not present, reconciliation of recreational fisheries and nature conservation goals is less likely, risking both the aquatic biodiversity and the future of angling. To address these issues, enforcement of legislation and continued communication with angler communities is necessary, as well as development of integrated management policies that build on the instrumental values of aquatic biodiversity for recreational fisheries, while curtailing the more insidious threats to such biodiversity that originate directly from the recreational fisheries sector.

Understanding the role of representations of human-leopard conflict in Mumbai through media-content analysis.

PubMed

Bhatia, Saloni; Athreya, Vidya; Grenyer, Richard; MacDonald, David W

2013-06-01

Attempts to minimize the effects of human-wildlife conflict (HWC) on conservation goals require an understanding of the mechanisms by which such conflicts are caused and sustained. This necessitates looking beyond the natural sciences to the human dimensions of wildlife management. Public dissemination of information regarding HWC occurs largely through the mass media. We conducted a content analysis of print media articles on human-leopard conflict in Mumbai, India. We sought to understand the framing of HWC and the changes in media coverage over a 10-year period (2001-2011) during which a large number of attacks on people prior to 2005 were followed by a program of trapping and relocation. After 2005, when there was a decrease in the level of conflict, the tone of English-language media reports changed. The perpetrator framing was over 5 times more likely before 2005, whereas a neutral framing was twice as likely after 2005. English-language and non-English-language print media differed significantly in their framing of HWC and in the kinds of solutions advocated. Our results also suggest the print mass media in Mumbai could be an influential conduit for content that diminishes HWC. These media outlets seem attentive to human-leopard conflict, capable of correcting erroneous perceptions and facilitating mitigation and effective management. We believe better contact and mutual understanding between conservation professionals and the mass media could be an important component of managing HWC. We further suggest that in such interactions conservation professionals need to be aware of cultural and linguistic differences in reporting within the country. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Human-Wildlife Conflicts in Nepal: Patterns of Human Fatalities and Injuries Caused by Large Mammals.

PubMed

Acharya, Krishna Prasad; Paudel, Prakash Kumar; Neupane, Prem Raj; Köhl, Michael

2016-01-01

Injury and death from wildlife attacks often result in people feeling violent resentment and hostility against the wildlife involved and, therefore, may undermine public support for conservation. Although Nepal, with rich biodiversity, is doing well in its conservation efforts, human-wildlife conflicts have been a major challenge in recent years. The lack of detailed information on the spatial and temporal patterns of human-wildlife conflicts at the national level impedes the development of effective conflict mitigation plans. We examined patterns of human injury and death caused by large mammals using data from attack events and their spatiotemporal dimensions collected from a national survey of data available in Nepal over five years (2010-2014). Data were analyzed using logistic regression and chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. The results show that Asiatic elephants and common leopards are most commonly involved in attacks on people in terms of attack frequency and fatalities. Although one-horned rhinoceros and bears had a higher frequency of attacks than Bengal tigers, tigers caused more fatalities than each of these two species. Attacks by elephants peaked in winter and most frequently occurred outside protected areas in human settlements. Leopard attacks occurred almost entirely outside protected areas, and a significantly greater number of attacks occurred in human settlements. Attacks by one-horned rhinoceros and tigers were higher in the winter, mainly in forests inside protected areas; similarly, attacks by bears occurred mostly within protected areas. We found that human settlements are increasingly becoming conflict hotspots, with burgeoning incidents involving elephants and leopards. We conclude that species-specific conservation strategies are urgently needed, particularly for leopards and elephants. The implications of our findings for minimizing conflicts and conserving these imperiled species are discussed.

Human-Wildlife Conflicts in Nepal: Patterns of Human Fatalities and Injuries Caused by Large Mammals

PubMed Central

Acharya, Krishna Prasad; Paudel, Prakash Kumar; Neupane, Prem Raj; Köhl, Michael

2016-01-01

Injury and death from wildlife attacks often result in people feeling violent resentment and hostility against the wildlife involved and, therefore, may undermine public support for conservation. Although Nepal, with rich biodiversity, is doing well in its conservation efforts, human-wildlife conflicts have been a major challenge in recent years. The lack of detailed information on the spatial and temporal patterns of human-wildlife conflicts at the national level impedes the development of effective conflict mitigation plans. We examined patterns of human injury and death caused by large mammals using data from attack events and their spatiotemporal dimensions collected from a national survey of data available in Nepal over five years (2010–2014). Data were analyzed using logistic regression and chi-square or Fisher's exact tests. The results show that Asiatic elephants and common leopards are most commonly involved in attacks on people in terms of attack frequency and fatalities. Although one-horned rhinoceros and bears had a higher frequency of attacks than Bengal tigers, tigers caused more fatalities than each of these two species. Attacks by elephants peaked in winter and most frequently occurred outside protected areas in human settlements. Leopard attacks occurred almost entirely outside protected areas, and a significantly greater number of attacks occurred in human settlements. Attacks by one-horned rhinoceros and tigers were higher in the winter, mainly in forests inside protected areas; similarly, attacks by bears occurred mostly within protected areas. We found that human settlements are increasingly becoming conflict hotspots, with burgeoning incidents involving elephants and leopards. We conclude that species-specific conservation strategies are urgently needed, particularly for leopards and elephants. The implications of our findings for minimizing conflicts and conserving these imperiled species are discussed. PMID:27612174

Inhibition, Conflict Detection, and Number Conservation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lubin, Amélie; Simon, Grégory; Houdé, Olivier; De Neys, Wim

2015-01-01

The acquisition of number conservation is a critical step in children's numerical and mathematical development. Classic developmental studies have established that children's number conservation is often biased by misleading intuitions. However, the precise nature of these conservation errors is not clear. A key question is whether conservation…

76 FR 9696 - Equipment Price Forecasting in Energy Conservation Standards Analysis

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-22

... for particular efficiency design options, an empirical experience curve fit to the available data may be used to forecast future costs of such design option technologies. If a statistical evaluation indicates a low level of confidence in estimates of the design option cost trend, this method should not be...

Evolutionary conservation advice for despotic populations: habitat heterogeneity favours conflict and reduces productivity in Seychelles magpie robins.

PubMed

López-Sepulcre, Andrés; Kokko, Hanna; Norris, Ken

2010-11-22

Individual preferences for good habitat are often thought to have a beneficial stabilizing effect for populations. However, if individuals preferentially compete for better-quality territories, these may become hotspots of conflict. We show that, in an endangered species, this process decreases the productivity of favoured territories to the extent that differences in productivity between territories disappear. Unlike predictions from current demographic theory on site-dependent population regulation (ideal despotic distribution), we show that population productivity is reduced if resources are distributed unevenly in space. Competition for high-quality habitat can thus have detrimental consequences for populations even though it benefits individuals. Manipulating conflict (e.g. by reducing variation in habitat quality) can therefore prove an effective conservation measure in species with strong social or territorial conflict.

Offense-defense aspects of nanotechnologies: a forecast of potential military applications.

PubMed

Shipbaugh, Calvin

2006-01-01

Potential military applications of nanotechnology will evolve in the next few decades. The implications for both defense and offense should be carefully assessed. Nanotechnology can push major changes in stability, and shape the consequences of future conflict.

Forecasting the effects of land-use and climate change on wildlife communities and habitats in the lower Mississippi Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faulkner, Stephen P.

2010-01-01

Landscape patterns and processes reflect both natural ecosystem attributes and the policy and management decisions of individual Federal, State, county, and private organizations. Land-use regulation, water management, and habitat conservation and restoration efforts increasingly rely on landscape-level approaches that incorporate scientific information into the decision-making process. Since management actions are implemented to affect future conditions, decision-support models are necessary to forecast potential future conditions resulting from these decisions. Spatially explicit modeling approaches enable testing of different scenarios and help evaluate potential outcomes of management actions in conjunction with natural processes such as climate change. The ability to forecast the effects of changing land use and climate is critically important to land and resource managers since their work is inherently site specific, yet conservation strategies and practices are expressed at higher spatial and temporal scales that must be considered in the decisionmaking process.

Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

PubMed

Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

2018-01-18

Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of extractable mineral resources, or various metrics of development and governance. Our results suggest that sustained conservation activity in conflict zones-and rapid interventions following ceasefires-may help to save many at-risk populations and species.

Integrated wildlife management: western working group

Treesearch

Beaumont C. McClure

1993-01-01

This session, attended by 90-100 people, focused on current wildlife management practices in the West, how they conflict with neotropical migratory bird conservation, and possible solutions for resolving these conflicts.

The ambiguity of "watershed": the politics of people and conservation in northern Thailand.

PubMed

Pinkaew Laungaramsri

2000-04-01

The current conflict over watershed management between the lowlanders and highlanders in Chomthong has unveiled various aspects of the politics of people versus nature conservation. What is important is that the conflict has exposed the shifting and inconsistent views of the Thai state towards the peripheral areas and its people. Thus, on the one hand, the official discourse on "watershed" was appropriated by the urban middle-class conservationists and lowlanders to legitimize their control of highland resources to the exclusion of the highland minorities. The two groups also used ethnic differences to justify their control over the highland resources. On the other hand, the conflict also showed that the control by the dominant power could never be absolute. Highlanders responded to the "watershed regime" by redefining watershed integrity, adapting to the state conservation pressure, and seeking and forming alliances with other groups.

Forest Conservation, Value Conflict, and Interest Formation in a Honduran National Park

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pfeffer, Max J.; Schelhas, John W.; Day, Leyla Ann

2001-01-01

We argue that attempts to superimpose park regulatory regimes on existing land uses in the tropics represent conflicts between alternative cultural models of natural resource management. The results of such conflicts are unique regulatory regimes emerging from distinctive processes that redefine the terms and limits of natural resource use. In…

Human-Wildlife Conflict and Environmental Education: Evaluating a Community Program to Protect the Andean Bear in Ecuador

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Espinosa, Santiago; Jacobson, Susan K.

2012-01-01

Environmental education is a widespread, yet relatively unexamined strategy to reduce human-wildlife conflicts. We evaluated knowledge, attitudes and behavioral intentions toward bear conservation after five years of environmental education in a Quichua community. Conflicts with livestock predation created mixed attitudes and behaviors toward bear…

Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate-mediated range shifts.

PubMed

Crase, Beth; Liedloff, Adam; Vesk, Peter A; Fukuda, Yusuke; Wintle, Brendan A

2014-08-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to forecast changes in the spatial distributions of species and communities in response to climate change. However, spatial autocorrelation (SA) is rarely accounted for in these models, despite its ubiquity in broad-scale ecological data. While spatial autocorrelation in model residuals is known to result in biased parameter estimates and the inflation of type I errors, the influence of unmodeled SA on species' range forecasts is poorly understood. Here we quantify how accounting for SA in SDMs influences the magnitude of range shift forecasts produced by SDMs for multiple climate change scenarios. SDMs were fitted to simulated data with a known autocorrelation structure, and to field observations of three mangrove communities from northern Australia displaying strong spatial autocorrelation. Three modeling approaches were implemented: environment-only models (most frequently applied in species' range forecasts), and two approaches that incorporate SA; autologistic models and residuals autocovariate (RAC) models. Differences in forecasts among modeling approaches and climate scenarios were quantified. While all model predictions at the current time closely matched that of the actual current distribution of the mangrove communities, under the climate change scenarios environment-only models forecast substantially greater range shifts than models incorporating SA. Furthermore, the magnitude of these differences intensified with increasing increments of climate change across the scenarios. When models do not account for SA, forecasts of species' range shifts indicate more extreme impacts of climate change, compared to models that explicitly account for SA. Therefore, where biological or population processes induce substantial autocorrelation in the distribution of organisms, and this is not modeled, model predictions will be inaccurate. These results have global importance for conservation efforts as inaccurate forecasts lead to ineffective prioritization of conservation activities and potentially to avoidable species extinctions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Negotiating Nature: Collaboration and Conflict between Aboriginal and Conservation Interests in New South Wales, Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adams, Michael

2004-01-01

Faced with the paradox of a large global increase in conservation reserves and a simultaneous global decrease in actual effective protection for biodiversity, conservation scientists and policymakers are questioning established conservation theory and practice. I argue that the fundamental premises, the foundational myths, for Western-style…

Moral dimensions of human-wildlife conflict.

PubMed

Lute, Michelle L; Navarrete, Carlos David; Nelson, Michael Paul; Gore, Meredith L

2016-12-01

Despite increasing support for conservation globally, controversy over specific conservation policies persists among diverse stakeholders. Investigating the links between morals in relation to conservation can help increase understanding about why humans support or oppose policy, especially related to human-wildlife conflict or human conflict over wildlife. Yet the moral dimension of human-wildlife conflict has mostly gone unconsidered and unmeasured; thus, policy and programmatic efforts to reduce controversy may be missing a key part of the equation. We conducted a web-based survey (n = 1239 respondents) in Michigan (U.S.A.) to investigate cognitive and emotional influences on the value-behavior relationship. Respondents were identified by their interest and involvement in Michigan wolf management. The survey consisted of questions about values, emotions, cognitions, and behaviors relative to wolves in Michigan. We used path analysis to explore whether emotions and cognitions mediated the relationship between value and behavior. Most respondents attributed intrinsic value to wolves (n = 734) and all life (n = 773) and engaged in behaviors that benefited wolf populations and ecosystems regardless of stakeholder group (e.g., environmentalist, farmer). Attributing intrinsic value to wolves was positively related to favorable emotions toward wolves and cognitive assessments that hunting and trapping of wolves is unacceptable. Despite similarities in attribution of intrinsic value, groups differed in emotions and cognitions about wolf hunting. These differences provide a useful way to predict stakeholder behavior. Our findings may inform interventions aimed at increasing support for wolf management policies and positive interactions among stakeholders and wildlife. Leveraging agreement over intrinsic value may foster cooperation among stakeholders and garner support for controversial conservation policy. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Courts and You.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Truby, Roy

This paper selectively reviews education law since 1954 and forecasts trends and major issues for the 1980's. Two trends are foreseen: increasing conflict between social goals and individual rights, and greater emphasis on "housekeeping" issues. Five upcoming issues are then examined with reference to recent litigation and legislation…

Forecasting in the presence of expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, R.; Zivin, J. G.; Shrader, J.

2016-05-01

Physical processes routinely influence economic outcomes, and actions by economic agents can, in turn, influence physical processes. This feedback creates challenges for forecasting and inference, creating the potential for complementarity between models from different academic disciplines. Using the example of prediction of water availability during a drought, we illustrate the potential biases in forecasts that only take part of a coupled system into account. In particular, we show that forecasts can alter the feedbacks between supply and demand, leading to inaccurate prediction about future states of the system. Although the example is specific to drought, the problem of feedback between expectations and forecast quality is not isolated to the particular model-it is relevant to areas as diverse as population assessments for conservation, balancing the electrical grid, and setting macroeconomic policy.

Conserving Conflict? Transfrontier Conservation, Development Discourses and Local Conflict Between South Africa and Lesotho

PubMed Central

Büscher, Bram

2010-01-01

This paper describes and analyses how discourses of conservation and development as well as migrant labour practices can be understood as transnational dynamics that both cement and complicate transnational relations. It also looks into how these dynamics articulate with, shape and are being shaped by ‘the local’. Focusing on the north-eastern boundary of Lesotho in the area of the ‘Maloti-Drakensberg transfrontier conservation and development project’, we show how conflictual situations put the ethnographic spotlight on the ways in which ‘local people’ in Lesotho deal with dual forces of localisation and transnationalisation. We argue that they accommodate, even appropriate, these dual pressures by adopting an increasingly flexible stance in terms of identity, alliances, livelihood options and discourses. PMID:21258433

Policy challenges and approaches for the conservation of mangrove forests in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Friess, Daniel A; Thompson, Benjamin S; Brown, Ben; Amir, A Aldrie; Cameron, Clint; Koldewey, Heather J; Sasmito, Sigit D; Sidik, Frida

2016-10-01

Many drivers of mangrove forest loss operate over large scales and are most effectively addressed by policy interventions. However, conflicting or unclear policy objectives exist at multiple tiers of government, resulting in contradictory management decisions. To address this, we considered four approaches that are being used increasingly or could be deployed in Southeast Asia to ensure sustainable livelihoods and biodiversity conservation. First, a stronger incorporation of mangroves into marine protected areas (that currently focus largely on reefs and fisheries) could resolve some policy conflicts and ensure that mangroves do not fall through a policy gap. Second, examples of community and government comanagement exist, but achieving comanagement at scale will be important in reconciling stakeholders and addressing conflicting policy objectives. Third, private-sector initiatives could protect mangroves through existing and novel mechanisms in degraded areas and areas under future threat. Finally, payments for ecosystem services (PES) hold great promise for mangrove conservation, with carbon PES schemes (known as blue carbon) attracting attention. Although barriers remain to the implementation of PES, the potential to implement them at multiple scales exists. Closing the gap between mangrove conservation policies and action is crucial to the improved protection and management of this imperiled coastal ecosystem and to the livelihoods that depend on them. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. PMID:28257501

A simple Lagrangian forecast system with aviation forecast potential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petersen, R. A.; Homan, J. H.

1983-01-01

A trajectory forecast procedure is developed which uses geopotential tendency fields obtained from a simple, multiple layer, potential vorticity conservative isentropic model. This model can objectively account for short-term advective changes in the mass field when combined with fine-scale initial analyses. This procedure for producing short-term, upper-tropospheric trajectory forecasts employs a combination of a detailed objective analysis technique, an efficient mass advection model, and a diagnostically proven trajectory algorithm, none of which require extensive computer resources. Results of initial tests are presented, which indicate an exceptionally good agreement for trajectory paths entering the jet stream and passing through an intensifying trough. It is concluded that this technique not only has potential for aiding in route determination, fuel use estimation, and clear air turbulence detection, but also provides an example of the types of short range forecasting procedures which can be applied at local forecast centers using simple algorithms and a minimum of computer resources.

76 FR 18425 - Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison With Forecasted Unit Sales of Five...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-04

... Program: Data Collection and Comparison With Forecasted Unit Sales of Five Lamp Types AGENCY: Office of...) Collect unit sales data for each of the five lamp types for calendar years 1990 through 2006 in order to... continue to track rough service lamp sales data and will not initiate regulatory action for this lamp type...

The 4th order GISS model of the global atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay-Rivas, E.; Bayliss, A.; Storch, J.

1977-01-01

The new GISS 4th order model of the global atmosphere is described. It is based on 4th order quadratically conservative differences with the periodic application of a 16th order filter on the sea level pressure and potential temperature equations, a combination which is approximately enstrophy conserving. Several short range forecasts indicate a significant improvement over 2nd order forecasts with the same resolution (approximately 400 km). However the 4th order forecasts are somewhat inferior to 2nd order forecasts with double resolution. This is probably due to the presence of short waves in the range between 1000 km and 2000 km, which are computed more accurately by the 2nd order high resolution model. An operation count of the schemes indicates that with similar code optimization, the 4th order model will require approximately the same amount of computer time as the 2nd order model with the same resolution. It is estimated that the 4th order model with a grid size of 200 km provides enough accuracy to make horizontal truncation errors negligible over a period of a week for all synoptic scales (waves longer than 1000 km).

Balancing the Needs of China's Wetland Conservation and Rice Production.

PubMed

Chen, Hongjun; Wang, Guoping; Lu, Xianguo; Jiang, Ming; Mendelssohn, Irving A

2015-06-02

China's rice policy for protecting paddy fields and constructing rice production bases is in conflict with its wetland conservation strategy. The policy will increase the rice planting area, the loss of remaining wetlands, and environmental pollution, with intensive application of fertilizers and heavy use of pesticides. The key to resolving this conflict is to bring rice production in compliance with wetland conservation and sustainable agriculture. An operational, sound regulatory program is needed to improve China's wetland conservation. Using wetland conservation in the US as an example, we argue that more effective technical guidelines for wetland inventory and monitoring are necessary to support the implementation of the regulatory program. Agricultural conservation programs are also needed to stop further wetland loss from agricultural usages. An ecoagricultural strategy and practice should be adopted for rice production to reduce pollution and loss of remaining wetlands. Agroecological engineering tools can be used to reduce the impacts of nutrient- and pesticide-enriched agricultural runoff to wetlands.

The Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Managing Energy Resources.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown Weiss, Edith

1982-04-01

Research and interviews with officials of the United States energy industry and a systems analysis of decision making in a natural gas utility lead to the conclusion that seasonal climate forecasts would only have limited value in fine tuning the management of energy supply, even if the forecasts were more reliable and detailed than at present.On the other hand, reliable forecasts could be useful to state and local governments both as a signal to adopt long-term measures to increase the efficiency of energy use and to initiate short-term measures to reduce energy demand in anticipation of a weather-induced energy crisis.To be useful for these purposes, state governments would need better data on energy demand patterns and available energy supplies, staff competent to interpret climate forecasts, and greater incentive to conserve. The use of seasonal climate forecasts is not likely to be constrained by fear of legal action by those claiming to be injured by a possible incorrect forecast.

Evaluating adaptive co-management as conservation conflict resolution: Learning from seals and salmon.

PubMed

Butler, J R A; Young, J C; McMyn, I A G; Leyshon, B; Graham, I M; Walker, I; Baxter, J M; Dodd, J; Warburton, C

2015-09-01

By linking iterative learning and knowledge generation with power-sharing, adaptive co-management (ACM) provides a potential solution to resolving complex social-ecological problems. In this paper we evaluate ACM as a mechanism for resolving conservation conflict using a case study in Scotland, where seal and salmon fishery stakeholders have opposing and entrenched objectives. ACM emerged in 2002, successfully resolving this long-standing conflict. Applying evaluation approaches from the literature, in 2011 we interviewed stakeholders to characterise the evolution of ACM, and factors associated with its success over 10 years. In common with other ACM cases, triggers for the process were shifts in slow variables controlling the system (seal and salmon abundance, public perceptions of seal shooting), and exogenous shocks (changes in legal mandates, a seal disease outbreak). Also typical of ACM, three phases of evolution were evident: emerging local leadership preparing the system for change, a policy window of opportunity, and stakeholder partnerships building the resilience of the system. Parameters maintaining ACM were legal mechanisms and structures, legal power held by government, and the willingness of all stakeholders to reach a compromise and experiment with an alternative governance approach. Results highlighted the critical role of government power and support in resolving conservation conflict, which may constrain the extent of local stakeholder-driven ACM. The evaluation also demonstrated how, following perceived success, the trajectory of ACM has shifted to a 'stakeholder apathy' phase, with declining leadership, knowledge exchange, stakeholder engagement, and system resilience. We discuss remedial actions required to revive the process, and the importance of long term government resourcing and alternative financing schemes for successful conflict resolution. Based on the results we present a generic indicator framework and participatory method for the longitudinal evaluation of ACM applied to conservation conflict resolution. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dating conflicts: rethinking dating violence and youth conflict.

PubMed

Adelman, Madelaine; Kil, Sang Hea

2007-12-01

Dating couples are tied to each other's friends who have expectations about dating, such as who constitutes an acceptable date and how to balance friendship and dating. We explore the place of friends in dating conflicts (i.e., conflicts and violence associated with heterosexual teen dating) and ask: (a) How are friends implicated in teen dating/violence not only as targets or confidants, but also as participants in conflict that stems from their friends' relationships, and (b) in what ways do dating conflicts conserve or challenge the power of gender and sexual conformity that underlies heterosexual dating and dating violence?

Forecast Verification: Identification of small changes in weather forecasting skill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherhead, E. C.; Jensen, T. L.

2017-12-01

Global and regonal weather forecasts have improved over the past seven decades most often because of small, incrmental improvements. The identificaiton and verification of forecast improvement due to proposed small changes in forecasting can be expensive and, if not carried out efficiently, can slow progress in forecasting development. This presentation will look at the skill of commonly used verification techniques and show how the ability to detect improvements can depend on the magnitude of the improvement, the number of runs used to test the improvement, the location on the Earth and the statistical techniques used. For continuous variables, such as temperture, wind and humidity, the skill of a forecast can be directly compared using a pair-wise statistical test that accommodates the natural autocorrelation and magnitude of variability. For discrete variables, such as tornado outbreaks, or icing events, the challenges is to reduce the false alarm rate while improving the rate of correctly identifying th discrete event. For both continuus and discrete verification results, proper statistical approaches can reduce the number of runs needed to identify a small improvement in forecasting skill. Verification within the Next Generation Global Prediction System is an important component to the many small decisions needed to make stat-of-the-art improvements to weather forecasting capabilities. The comparison of multiple skill scores with often conflicting results requires not only appropriate testing, but also scientific judgment to assure that the choices are appropriate not only for improvements in today's forecasting capabilities, but allow improvements that will come in the future.

Associations between Parental Ideology and Neural Sensitivity to Cognitive Conflict in Children

PubMed Central

Dennis, Tracy A.; Amodio, David; O’Toole, Laura J.

2014-01-01

Processes through which parental ideology is transmitted to children—especially at a young age prior to the formation of political beliefs—remain poorly understood. Given recent evidence that political ideology is associated with neural responses to cognitive conflict in adults, we tested the exploratory hypothesis that children’s neurocognitive responses to conflict may also differ depending on their parents’ ideology. We assessed relations between parental political ideology and children’s neurocognitive responses to conflict, as measured by the N2 component of the event-related potential. Children aged 5–7 completed an age-appropriate flanker task while EEG was recorded, and the N2 was scored to incongruent versus congruent flankers to index conflict processing. Because previous research documents heightened liberal-conservative differences in threat-relevant contexts, each trial of the task was preceded by an angry face (threat-relevant) or comparison face (happy or neutral). An effect of parental ideology on the conflict-related N2 emerged in the threat condition, such that the N2 was larger among children of liberals compared with children of moderates and conservatives. These findings suggest that individual differences in neurocognitive responses to conflict, heightened in the context of threat, may reflect a more general pattern of individual differences that, in adults, relates to political ideology. PMID:25319060

Associations between parental ideology and neural sensitivity to cognitive conflict in children.

PubMed

Dennis, Tracy A; Amodio, David M; O'Toole, Laura J

2015-04-01

Processes through which parental ideology is transmitted to children-especially at a young age prior to the formation of political beliefs-remain poorly understood. Given recent evidence that political ideology is associated with neural responses to cognitive conflict in adults, we tested the exploratory hypothesis that children's neurocognitive responses to conflict may also differ depending on their parents' ideology. We assessed relations between parental political ideology and children's neurocognitive responses to conflict, as measured by the N2 component of the event-related potential. Children aged 5-7 completed an age-appropriate flanker task while electroencephalography was recorded, and the N2 was scored to incongruent versus congruent flankers to index conflict processing. Because previous research documents heightened liberal-conservative differences in threat-relevant contexts, each trial of the task was preceded by an angry face (threat-relevant) or comparison face (happy or neutral). An effect of parental ideology on the conflict-related N2 emerged in the threat condition, such that the N2 was larger among children of liberals compared with children of moderates and conservatives. These findings suggest that individual differences in neurocognitive responses to conflict, heightened in the context of threat, may reflect a more general pattern of individual differences that, in adults, relates to political ideology.

Anterior cingulate cortex and intuitive bias detection during number conservation.

PubMed

Simon, Grégory; Lubin, Amélie; Houdé, Olivier; De Neys, Wim

2015-01-01

Children's number conservation is often biased by misleading intuitions but the precise nature of these conservation errors is not clear. A key question is whether children detect that their erroneous conservation judgment is unwarranted. The present study reanalyzed available fMRI data to test the implication of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in this detection process. We extracted mean BOLD (Blood Oxygen Level Dependent) signal values in an independently defined ACC region of interest (ROI) during presentation of classic and control number conservation problems. In classic trials, an intuitively cued visuospatial response conflicted with the correct conservation response, whereas this conflict was not present in the control trials. Results showed that ACC activation increased when solving the classic conservation problems. Critically, this increase did not differ between participants who solved the classic problems correctly (i.e., so-called conservers) and incorrectly (i.e., so-called non-conservers). Additional control analyses of inferior and lateral prefrontal ROIs showed that the group of conservers did show stronger activation in the right inferior frontal gyrus and right lateral middle frontal gyrus. In line with recent behavioral findings, these data lend credence to the hypothesis that even non-conserving children detect the biased nature of their judgment. The key difference between conservers and non-conservers seems to lie in a differential recruitment of inferior and lateral prefrontal regions associated with inhibitory control.

Forum on energy conservation in buildings : implications for transportation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-12-01

In a transportation-dependent society constrained by potential : shortages and the high costs of conventional fuels, as well as by : sometimes conflicting national objectives for increased energy : conservation, improved environmental quality, enhanc...

Evolving conservation paradigms for the Anthropocene

Treesearch

Ariel E. Lugo

2014-01-01

The Anthropocene will have fundamental effects on the species composition, function, and structure of the ecosystems of the world. Land management agencies such as the USDA Forest Service will need to adapt their policies and conservation activities to avoid engaging in continuous conflict with natural processes and unfamiliar biotic assemblages. Conservation paradigms...

A two wave cross-lagged study of work-role conflict, work-family conflict and emotional exhaustion.

PubMed

Jensen, Maria Therese

2016-12-01

By using a two-wave panel design, the present study aimed to study causal, reversed, and reciprocal relations among work-role conflict, work-family conflict, and emotional exhaustion. The Conservation of Resources theory was applied as a theoretical framework. The study was conducted in a large Norwegian oil and gas company (n = 1703). The results demonstrated positive cross-lagged effects of work-role conflict and work-family conflict on emotional exhaustion. In addition, emotional exhaustion predicted work-family conflict over time, and work-family conflict predicted work-role conflict over time, indicating the presence of reciprocal effects. The current study adds new knowledge to the positioning of work-family conflict in relation to perceived conflict in the workplace and emotional exhaustion. © 2016 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Increasing Storm Water Capture for Water Supply using Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) in Orange County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchinson, A.; Woodside, G.; Ralph, F. M.

2017-12-01

Stormwater represents a significant source of water used by the Orange County Water District (OCWD) to recharge the Orange County groundwater basin. Over the last 20 years, OCWD has captured and recharged an average of 50,000 acre-feet per year (afy) of stormwater. Much of this recharge is made possible by the capture of stormwater in the Prado Dam Conservation Pool. OCWD has and continues to work closely with the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) to manage the conservation pool and to increase the amount of water that can be temporarily impounded in the conservation pool. Currently, the Conservation Pool is allowed to rise to elevation 498 ft msl (approx. 10,000 af of storage) during the storm season and to 505 ft msl (approx. 20,000 af of storage) during the non-storm season. OCWD has been working with the USACE on a Feasibility Study to permanently allow for storage of stormwater up to elevation 505 msl year-round. Even though increasing the Conservation Pool will increase the amount of stormwater captured, the weather forecasting used to manage the conservation pool can be improved in order to minimize lost opportunities to capture water or unnecessary releases of water to the ocean. To increase the efficiency of stormwater capture, OCWD is partnering with the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (http://cw3e.ucsd.edu/) to study the viability of using Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) at Prado Dam. FIRO represents the next generation of operating water reservoirs using the best available technology. Moreover, given the importance of atmospheric river (AR) storms on water supplies in California, FIRO represents a methodology to take advantage of our increasing understanding of AR storms which are infrequent but provide a large percentage of total precipitation.

Futures of global urban expansion: uncertainties and implications for biodiversity conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Güneralp, B.; Seto, K. C.

2013-03-01

Urbanization will place significant pressures on biodiversity across the world. However, there are large uncertainties in the amount and location of future urbanization, particularly urban land expansion. Here, we present a global analysis of urban extent circa 2000 and probabilistic forecasts of urban expansion for 2030 near protected areas and in biodiversity hotspots. We estimate that the amount of urban land within 50 km of all protected area boundaries will increase from 450 000 km2 circa 2000 to 1440 000 ± 65 000 km2 in 2030. Our analysis shows that protected areas around the world will experience significant increases in urban land within 50 km of their boundaries. China will experience the largest increase in urban land near protected areas with 304 000 ± 33 000 km2 of new urban land to be developed within 50 km of protected area boundaries. The largest urban expansion in biodiversity hotspots, over 100 000 ± 25 000 km2, is forecasted to occur in South America. Uncertainties in the forecasts of the amount and location of urban land expansion reflect uncertainties in their underlying drivers including urban population and economic growth. The forecasts point to the need to reconcile urban development and biodiversity conservation strategies.

Catalyzing sustainability: Cornell University's field practicum in conservation and sustainable development

Treesearch

John Schelhas

2000-01-01

Human society is increasingly facing a variety of complex, intertwined environmental conservation and rural development issues. For example, national park objectives have expanded from the conservation of biological diversity to also include contributing to the livelihood and development needs of local people. Human settlements in fragile uplands create conflicts...

Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dippner, Joachim W.; Kröncke, Ingrid

2015-10-01

Regime shifts may cause an intrinsic decrease in the potential predictability of marine ecosystems. In such cases, forecasts of biological variables fail. To improve prediction of long-term variability in environmental variables, we constructed a multivariate climate index and applied it to forecast ecological time series. The concept is demonstrated herein using climate and macrozoobenthos data from the southern North Sea. Special emphasis is given to the influence of selection of length of fitting period to the quality of forecast skill especially in the presence of regime shifts. Our results indicate that the performance of multivariate predictors in biological forecasts is much better than that of single large-scale climate indices, especially in the presence of regime shifts. The approach used to develop the index is generally applicable to all geographical regions in the world and to all areas of marine biology, from the species level up to biodiversity. Such forecasts are of vital interest for practical aspects of the sustainable management of marine ecosystems and the conservation of ecosystem goods and services.

Home is Private…Do Not Enter! Introversion and Sensitivity to Work-Home Conflict.

PubMed

Baer, Stacy M; Jenkins, Jade S; Barber, Larissa K

2016-10-01

This study examined extraversion as a moderator of the relationship between negative work-home conflict and stress-related outcomes among US employees using conservation of resources theory and privacy regulation theory. Introverts only experienced stronger negative effects of negative work-home conflict on work-related resource depletion (job burnout, low engagement, low satisfaction with balance) rather than general resource depletion (personal burnout) and strain (physical and psychological). This finding suggests that introverts selectively withdraw from the work domain to conserve resources when privacy at home is threatened. Employers may want to consider ways to help introverts increase work-home segmentation, such as reducing workplace norms that encourage employees to be continuously accessible. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayou Vista: A Market-Driven Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Izzo, G. Martin; Teal, Elisabeth J.

2012-01-01

The case touches on several areas of marketing: ethics, sales issues, conflicts of interest, marketing forecasts, and issues of pricing. Joe Brice, the visionary and real estate broker for a 36-lot subdivision of moderately priced single-family homes targeting the $190,000 to $260,000 range, seems to have identified an unmet housing market,…

Geographic overlaps between priority areas for forest carbon-storage efforts and those for delivering peacebuilding programs: implications for policy design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castro-Nunez, Augusto; Mertz, Ole; Sosa, Chrystian C.

2017-05-01

Of the countries considering national-level policies for incentivizing reductions in forest-based greenhouse gas emissions (REDD+), some 25 are experiencing (or are emerging from) armed-conflicts. It has been hypothesized that the outcomes of the interactions between carbon-storage and peacebuilding efforts could result in either improved or worsened forest conservation and likewise increased or decreased conflict. Hence, for this study we explore potential interactions between forest carbon-storage and peacebuilding efforts, with Colombia as a case study. Spatial associations between biomass carbon and three conflict-related variables suggest that such interactions may exist. Nonetheless, while priority areas for carbon-focused conservation are presumably those at highest risks of deforestation, our research indicates that forests with lower risk of deforestation are typically those affected by armed-conflict. Our findings moreover highlight three possible roles played by Colombian forested municipalities in armed groups’ military strategies: venues for battle, hideouts, and sources of natural resources to finance war.

Coexistence and Conflict between the Island Flying fox (Pteropus hypomelanus) and Humans on Tioman Island, Peninsular Malaysia.

PubMed

Aziz, Sheema Abdul; Clements, Gopalasamy Reuben; Giam, Xingli; Forget, Pierre-Michel; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa

2017-01-01

As tropical landscapes become increasingly human-dominated, conflicts between people and wildlife threaten ecological processes. Old World fruit bats such as flying foxes are especially susceptible to extinction risk because there is low interest in their conservation, particularly when they are considered pests. In order to arrest fruit bat declines, there is an urgent need to understand human-bat conflict and its implications. On a tropical island in Peninsular Malaysia, we conducted a questionnaire survey to investigate coexistence between people and the island flying fox ( Pteropus hypomelanus ). Among 119 respondents, knowledge of ecosystem services provided by flying foxes was extremely low. Most respondents held negative attitudes towards the bats, and older male locals were more likely to support killing them. This was also true for older owners of fruit trees who derived income from selling fruit, and experienced flying fox raids. Our results can be used to design appropriate interventions to support conservation efforts, and has important implications for managing conflicts between humans and synanthropic wildlife.

The Carrot or the Stick? Evaluation of Education and Enforcement as Management Tools for Human-Wildlife Conflicts

PubMed Central

Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; Breck, Stewart W.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Broderick, John

2011-01-01

Evidence-based decision-making is critical for implementing conservation actions, especially for human-wildlife conflicts, which have been increasing worldwide. Conservation practitioners recognize that long-term solutions should include altering human behaviors, and public education and enforcement of wildlife-related laws are two management actions frequently implemented, but with little empirical evidence evaluating their success. We used a system where human-black bear conflicts were common, to experimentally test the efficacy of education and enforcement in altering human behavior to better secure attractants (garbage) from bears. We conducted 3 experiments in Aspen CO, USA to evaluate: 1) on-site education in communal dwellings and construction sites, 2) Bear Aware educational campaign in residential neighborhoods, and 3) elevated law enforcement at two levels in the core business area of Aspen. We measured human behaviors as the response including: violation of local wildlife ordinances, garbage availability to bears, and change in use of bear-resistance refuse containers. As implemented, we found little support for education, or enforcement in the form of daily patrolling in changing human behavior, but found more support for proactive enforcement, i.e., dispensing warning notices. More broadly we demonstrated the value of gathering evidence before and after implementing conservation actions, and the dangers of measuring responses in the absence of ecological knowledge. We recommend development of more effective educational methods, application of proactive enforcement, and continued evaluation of tools by directly measuring change in human behavior. We provide empirical evidence adding to the conservation managers' toolbox, informing policy makers, and promoting solutions to human-wildlife conflicts. PMID:21264267

Safety and Convergence Analysis of Intersecting Aircraft Flows Under Decentralized Collision Avoidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallal, Ahmed H.

Safety is an essential requirement for air traffic management and control systems. Aircraft are not allowed to get closer to each other than a specified safety distance, to avoid any conflicts and collisions between aircraft. Forecast analysis predicts a tremendous increase in the number of flights. Subsequently, automated tools are needed to help air traffic controllers resolve air born conflicts. In this dissertation, we consider the problem of conflict resolution of aircraft flows with the assumption that aircraft are flowing through a fixed specified control volume at a constant speed. In this regard, several centralized and decentralized resolution rules have been proposed for path planning and conflict avoidance. For the case of two intersecting flows, we introduce the concept of conflict touches, and a collaborative decentralized conflict resolution rule is then proposed and analyzed for two intersecting flows. The proposed rule is also able to resolved airborne conflicts that resulted from resolving another conflict via the domino effect. We study the safety conditions under the proposed conflict resolution and collision avoidance rule. Then, we use Lyapunov analysis to analytically prove the convergence of conflict resolution dynamics under the proposed rule. The analysis show that, under the proposed conflict resolution rule, the system of intersecting aircraft flows is guaranteed to converge to safe, conflict free, trajectories within a bounded time. Simulations are provided to verify the analytically derived conclusions and study the convergence of the conflict resolution dynamics at different encounter angles. Simulation results show that lateral deviations taken by aircraft in each flow, to resolve conflicts, are bounded, and aircraft converged to safe and conflict free trajectories, within a finite time.

Integrating biological and social values when prioritizing places for biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Whitehead, Amy L; Kujala, Heini; Ives, Christopher D; Gordon, Ascelin; Lentini, Pia E; Wintle, Brendan A; Nicholson, Emily; Raymond, Christopher M

2014-08-01

The consideration of information on social values in conjunction with biological data is critical for achieving both socially acceptable and scientifically defensible conservation planning outcomes. However, the influence of social values on spatial conservation priorities has received limited attention and is poorly understood. We present an approach that incorporates quantitative data on social values for conservation and social preferences for development into spatial conservation planning. We undertook a public participation GIS survey to spatially represent social values and development preferences and used species distribution models for 7 threatened fauna species to represent biological values. These spatially explicit data were simultaneously included in the conservation planning software Zonation to examine how conservation priorities changed with the inclusion of social data. Integrating spatially explicit information about social values and development preferences with biological data produced prioritizations that differed spatially from the solution based on only biological data. However, the integrated solutions protected a similar proportion of the species' distributions, indicating that Zonation effectively combined the biological and social data to produce socially feasible conservation solutions of approximately equivalent biological value. We were able to identify areas of the landscape where synergies and conflicts between different value sets are likely to occur. Identification of these synergies and conflicts will allow decision makers to target communication strategies to specific areas and ensure effective community engagement and positive conservation outcomes. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Real-time drought forecasting system for irrigation management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceppi, A.; Ravazzani, G.; Corbari, C.; Salerno, R.; Meucci, S.; Mancini, M.

2014-09-01

In recent years frequent periods of water scarcity have enhanced the need to use water more carefully, even in European areas which traditionally have an abundant supply of water, such as the Po Valley in northern Italy. In dry periods, water shortage problems can be enhanced by conflicting uses of water, such as irrigation, industry and power production (hydroelectric and thermoelectric). Furthermore, in the last decade the social perspective in relation to this issue has been increasing due to the possible impact of climate change and global warming scenarios which emerge from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2013). Hence, the increased frequency of drought periods has stimulated the improvement of irrigation and water management. In this study we show the development and implementation of the PREGI real-time drought forecasting system; PREGI is an Italian acronym that means "hydro-meteorological forecast for irrigation management". The system, planned as a tool for irrigation optimization, is based on meteorological ensemble forecasts (20 members) at medium range (30 days) coupled with hydrological simulations of water balance to forecast the soil water content on a maize field in the Muzza Bassa Lodigiana (MBL) consortium in northern Italy. The hydrological model was validated against measurements of latent heat flux acquired by an eddy-covariance station, and soil moisture measured by TDR (time domain reflectivity) probes; the reliability of this forecasting system and its benefits were assessed in the 2012 growing season. The results obtained show how the proposed drought forecasting system is able to have a high reliability of forecast at least for 7-10 days ahead of time.

Seasonal drought ensemble predictions based on multiple climate models in the upper Han River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Feng; Ye, Aizhong; Duan, Qingyun

2017-03-01

An experimental seasonal drought forecasting system is developed based on 29-year (1982-2010) seasonal meteorological hindcasts generated by the climate models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project. This system made use of a bias correction and spatial downscaling method, and a distributed time-variant gain model (DTVGM) hydrologic model. DTVGM was calibrated using observed daily hydrological data and its streamflow simulations achieved Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.727 and 0.724 during calibration (1978-1995) and validation (1996-2005) periods, respectively, at the Danjiangkou reservoir station. The experimental seasonal drought forecasting system (known as NMME-DTVGM) is used to generate seasonal drought forecasts. The forecasts were evaluated against the reference forecasts (i.e., persistence forecast and climatological forecast). The NMME-DTVGM drought forecasts have higher detectability and accuracy and lower false alarm rate than the reference forecasts at different lead times (from 1 to 4 months) during the cold-dry season. No apparent advantage is shown in drought predictions during spring and summer seasons because of a long memory of the initial conditions in spring and a lower predictive skill for precipitation in summer. Overall, the NMME-based seasonal drought forecasting system has meaningful skill in predicting drought several months in advance, which can provide critical information for drought preparedness and response planning as well as the sustainable practice of water resource conservation over the basin.

Optimal approaches for balancing invasive species eradication and endangered species management.

PubMed

Lampert, Adam; Hastings, Alan; Grosholz, Edwin D; Jardine, Sunny L; Sanchirico, James N

2014-05-30

Resolving conflicting ecosystem management goals-such as maintaining fisheries while conserving marine species or harvesting timber while preserving habitat-is a widely recognized challenge. Even more challenging may be conflicts between two conservation goals that are typically considered complementary. Here, we model a case where eradication of an invasive plant, hybrid Spartina, threatens the recovery of an endangered bird that uses Spartina for nesting. Achieving both goals requires restoration of native Spartina. We show that the optimal management entails less intensive treatment over longer time scales to fit with the time scale of natural processes. In contrast, both eradication and restoration, when considered separately, would optimally proceed as fast as possible. Thus, managers should simultaneously consider multiple, potentially conflicting goals, which may require flexibility in the timing of expenditures. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A Fuel-Efficient Conflict Resolution Maneuver for Separation Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowe, Aisha Ruth; Santiago, Confesor

2012-01-01

Automated separation assurance algorithms are envisioned to play an integral role in accommodating the forecasted increase in demand of the National Airspace System. Developing a robust, reliable, air traffic management system involves safely increasing efficiency and throughput while considering the potential impact on users. This experiment seeks to evaluate the benefit of augmenting a conflict detection and resolution algorithm to consider a fuel efficient, Zero-Delay Direct-To maneuver, when resolving a given conflict based on either minimum fuel burn or minimum delay. A total of twelve conditions were tested in a fast-time simulation conducted in three airspace regions with mixed aircraft types and light weather. Results show that inclusion of this maneuver has no appreciable effect on the ability of the algorithm to safely detect and resolve conflicts. The results further suggest that enabling the Zero-Delay Direct-To maneuver significantly increases the cumulative fuel burn savings when choosing resolution based on minimum fuel burn while marginally increasing the average delay per resolution.

Forecasting biodiversity in breeding birds using best practices

PubMed Central

Taylor, Shawn D.; White, Ethan P.

2018-01-01

Biodiversity forecasts are important for conservation, management, and evaluating how well current models characterize natural systems. While the number of forecasts for biodiversity is increasing, there is little information available on how well these forecasts work. Most biodiversity forecasts are not evaluated to determine how well they predict future diversity, fail to account for uncertainty, and do not use time-series data that captures the actual dynamics being studied. We addressed these limitations by using best practices to explore our ability to forecast the species richness of breeding birds in North America. We used hindcasting to evaluate six different modeling approaches for predicting richness. Hindcasts for each method were evaluated annually for a decade at 1,237 sites distributed throughout the continental United States. All models explained more than 50% of the variance in richness, but none of them consistently outperformed a baseline model that predicted constant richness at each site. The best practices implemented in this study directly influenced the forecasts and evaluations. Stacked species distribution models and “naive” forecasts produced poor estimates of uncertainty and accounting for this resulted in these models dropping in the relative performance compared to other models. Accounting for observer effects improved model performance overall, but also changed the rank ordering of models because it did not improve the accuracy of the “naive” model. Considering the forecast horizon revealed that the prediction accuracy decreased across all models as the time horizon of the forecast increased. To facilitate the rapid improvement of biodiversity forecasts, we emphasize the value of specific best practices in making forecasts and evaluating forecasting methods. PMID:29441230

Strengthening Connections between Dendrohydrology and Water Management in the Mediterranean Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Touchan, R.; Freitas, R. J.

2017-12-01

Dendrochronology can provide the knowledge upon which to base sound decisions for water resources. In general, water managers are limited to using short continuous instrumental records for forecasting streamflows and reservoir levels. Longer hydrological records are required. Proxy data such as annual tree-ring growth provide us with knowledge of the past frequency and severity of climatic anomalies, such as drought and wet periods, and can be used to improve probability calculations of future events. By improving probability input to these plans, water managers can use this information for water allocations, water conservation measures, and water efficiency methods. Accurate planning is critical in water deficit regions with histories of conflict over land and limited water. Here, we link the science of dendrohydrology with water management, and identify appropriate forums for scientists, policy decision makers, and water managers to collaborate in translating science into effective actions anticipating extreme events, such drought or floods. We will present examples of several dendrohydrological reconstructions from the eastern Mediterranean and North Africa as input for water management plans. Different disciplines are needed to work together, and we identify possible mechanisms to collaborate in order to reach this crucial necessity to use scarce water wisely.

Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations.

PubMed

Crone, Elizabeth E; Ellis, Martha M; Morris, William F; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N; Knight, Tiffany M; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L; Doak, Daniel F; Ganesan, Rengaian; McEachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S; Menges, Eric S

2013-10-01

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage-based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts' 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data-collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk-averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

'Nature Knows No Boundaries': The Role of Nature Conservation in Peacebuilding.

PubMed

Roulin, Alexandre; Abu Rashid, Mansour; Spiegel, Baruch; Charter, Motti; Dreiss, Amélie N; Leshem, Yossi

2017-05-01

Humanity is facing a biodiversity crisis. To solve environmental problems, we bring people from Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority to the same table. Conservation efforts are beneficial for all communities and facilitate constructive dialog across divides in conflict zones. This pleads for the integration of nature conservation into peacebuilding interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal Relations Between Constructive and Destructive Conflict and Couples’ Sleep

PubMed Central

El-Sheikh, Mona; Koss, Kalsea J.; Kelly, Ryan J.; Rauer, Amy J.

2016-01-01

We examined longitudinal relations between interpartner constructive (negotiation) and destructive (psychological and physical aggression) conflict strategies and couples’ sleep over 1 year. Toward explicating processes of effects, we assessed the intervening role of internalizing symptoms in associations between conflict tactics and couples’ sleep. Participants were 135 cohabiting couples (M age = 37 years for women and 39 years for men). The sample included a large representation of couples exposed to economic adversity. Further, 68% were European American and the remainder were primarily African American. At Time 1 (T1), couples reported on their conflict and their mental health (depression, anxiety). At T1 and Time 2, sleep was examined objectively with actigraphs for 7 nights. Three sleep parameters were derived: efficiency, minutes, and latency. Actor–partner interdependence models indicated that husbands’ use of constructive conflict forecasted increases in their own sleep efficiency as well as their own and their wives’ sleep duration over time. Actor and partner effects emerged, and husbands’ and wives’ use of destructive conflict strategies generally predicted worsening of some sleep parameters over time. Several mediation and intervening effects were observed for destructive conflict strategies. Some of these relations reveal that destructive conflict is associated with internalizing symptoms, which in turn are associated with some sleep parameters longitudinally. These findings build on a small, albeit growing, literature linking sleep with marital functioning, and illustrate that consideration of relationship processes including constructive conflict holds promise for gaining a better understanding of factors that influence the sleep of men and women. PMID:25915089

Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending.

PubMed

Waldron, Anthony; Miller, Daniel C; Redding, Dave; Mooers, Arne; Kuhn, Tyler S; Nibbelink, Nate; Roberts, J Timmons; Tobias, Joseph A; Gittleman, John L

2017-11-16

Halting global biodiversity loss is central to the Convention on Biological Diversity and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, but success to date has been very limited. A critical determinant of success in achieving these goals is the financing that is committed to maintaining biodiversity; however, financing decisions are hindered by considerable uncertainty over the likely impact of any conservation investment. For greater effectiveness, we need an evidence-based model that shows how conservation spending quantitatively reduces the rate of biodiversity loss. Here we demonstrate such a model, and empirically quantify how conservation investment reduced biodiversity loss in 109 countries (signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals), by a median average of 29% per country between 1996 and 2008. We also show that biodiversity changes in signatory countries can be predicted with high accuracy, using a dual model that balances the effects of conservation investment against those of economic, agricultural and population growth (human development pressures). Decision-makers can use this model to forecast the improvement that any proposed biodiversity budget would achieve under various scenarios of human development pressure, and then compare these forecasts to any chosen policy target. We find that the impact of spending decreases as human development pressures grow, which implies that funding may need to increase over time. The model offers a flexible tool for balancing the Sustainable Development Goals of human development and maintaining biodiversity, by predicting the dynamic changes in conservation finance that will be needed as human development proceeds.

Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waldron, Anthony; Miller, Daniel C.; Redding, Dave; Mooers, Arne; Kuhn, Tyler S.; Nibbelink, Nate; Roberts, J. Timmons; Tobias, Joseph A.; Gittleman, John L.

2017-11-01

Halting global biodiversity loss is central to the Convention on Biological Diversity and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, but success to date has been very limited. A critical determinant of success in achieving these goals is the financing that is committed to maintaining biodiversity; however, financing decisions are hindered by considerable uncertainty over the likely impact of any conservation investment. For greater effectiveness, we need an evidence-based model that shows how conservation spending quantitatively reduces the rate of biodiversity loss. Here we demonstrate such a model, and empirically quantify how conservation investment between 1996 and 2008 reduced biodiversity loss in 109 countries (signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals), by a median average of 29% per country. We also show that biodiversity changes in signatory countries can be predicted with high accuracy, using a dual model that balances the effects of conservation investment against those of economic, agricultural and population growth (human development pressures). Decision-makers can use this model to forecast the improvement that any proposed biodiversity budget would achieve under various scenarios of human development pressure, and then compare these forecasts to any chosen policy target. We find that the impact of spending decreases as human development pressures grow, which implies that funding may need to increase over time. The model offers a flexible tool for balancing the Sustainable Development Goals of human development and maintaining biodiversity, by predicting the dynamic changes in conservation finance that will be needed as human development proceeds.

Agricultural implications of providing soil-based constraints on urban expansion: Land use forecasts to 2050.

PubMed

Smidt, Samuel J; Tayyebi, Amin; Kendall, Anthony D; Pijanowski, Bryan C; Hyndman, David W

2018-07-01

Urbanization onto adjacent farmlands directly reduces the agricultural area available to meet the resource needs of a growing society. Soil conservation is a common objective in urban planning, but little focus has been placed on targeting soil value as a metric for conservation. This study assigns commodity and water storage values to the agricultural soils across all of the watersheds in Michigan's Lower Peninsula to evaluate how cities might respond to a soil conservation-based urbanization strategy. Land Transformation Model (LTM) simulations representing both traditional and soil conservation-based urbanization, are used to forecast urban area growth from 2010 to 2050 at five year intervals. The expansion of urban areas onto adjacent farmland is then evaluated to quantify the conservation effects of soil-based development. Results indicate that a soil-based protection strategy significantly conserves total farmland, especially more fertile soils within each soil type. In terms of revenue, ∼$88 million (in current dollars) would be conserved in 2050 using soil-based constraints, with the projected savings from 2011 to 2050 totaling more than $1.5 billion. Soil-based urbanization also increased urban density for each major metropolitan area. For example, there were 94,640 more acres directly adjacent to urban land by 2050 under traditional development compared to the soil-based urbanization strategy, indicating that urban sprawl was more tightly contained when including soil value as a metric to guide development. This study indicates that implementing a soil-based urbanization strategy would better satisfy future agricultural resource needs than traditional urban planning. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Initial Evaluation of a Conflict Detection Tool in the Terminal Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Verma Savita Arora; Tang, Huabin; Ballinger, Deborah S.; Kozon, Thomas E.; Farrahi, Amir Hossein

2012-01-01

Despite the recent economic recession and its adverse impact on air travel, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) continues to forecast an increase in air traffic demand that may see traffic double or triple by the year 2025. Increases in air traffic will burden the air traffic management system, and higher levels of safety and efficiency will be required. The air traffic controllers primary task is to ensure separation between aircraft in their airspace and keep the skies safe. As air traffic is forecasted to increase in volume and complexity [1], there is an increased likelihood of conflicts between aircraft, which adds risk and inefficiency to air traffic management and increases controller workload. To attenuate these factors, recent ATM research has shown that air and ground-based automation tools could reduce controller workload, especially if the automation is focused on conflict detection and resolution. Conflict Alert is a short time horizon conflict detection tool deployed in the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON), which has limited utility due to the high number of false alerts generated and its use of dead reckoning to predict loss of separation between aircraft. Terminal Tactical Separation Assurance Flight Environment (T-TSAFE) is a short time horizon conflict detection tool that uses both flight intent and dead reckoning to detect conflicts. Results of a fast time simulation experiment indicated that TTSAFE provided a more effective alert lead-time and generated less false alerts than Conflict Alert [2]. TSAFE was previously tested in a Human-In-The-Loop (HITL) simulation study that focused on the en route phase of flight [3]. The current study tested the T-TSAFE tool in an HITL simulation study, focusing on the terminal environment with current day operations. The study identified procedures, roles, responsibilities, information requirements and usability, with the help of TRACON controllers who participated in the experiment. Metrics such as lead alert time, alert response time, workload, situation awareness and other measures were statistically analyzed. These metrics were examined from an overall perspective and comparisons between conditions (altitude resolutions via keyboard entry vs. ADS-B entry) and controller positions (two final approach sectors and two feeder sectors) were also examined. Results of these analyses and controller feedback provided evidence of T-TSAFE s potential promise as a useful air traffic controller tool. Heuristic analysis also provided information on ways in which the T-TSAFE tool can be improved. Details of analyses results will be presented in the full paper.

Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

1981-01-01

The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

1981-06-01

The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

Problems with mitigation translocation of herpetofauna.

PubMed

Sullivan, Brian K; Nowak, Erika M; Kwiatkowski, Matthew A

2015-02-01

Mitigation translocation of nuisance animals is a commonly used management practice aimed at resolution of human-animal conflict by removal and release of an individual animal. Long considered a reasonable undertaking, especially by the general public, it is now known that translocated subjects are negatively affected by the practice. Mitigation translocation is typically undertaken with individual adult organisms and has a much lower success rate than the more widely practiced conservation translocation of threatened and endangered species. Nonetheless, the public and many conservation practitioners believe that because population-level conservation translocations have been successful that mitigation translocation can be satisfactorily applied to a wide variety of human-wildlife conflict situations. We reviewed mitigation translocations of reptiles, including our own work with 3 long-lived species (Gila monsters [Heloderma suspectum], Sonoran desert tortoises [Gopherus morafkai], and western diamond-backed rattlesnakes [Crotalus atrox]). Overall, mitigation translocation had a low success rate when judged either by effects on individuals (in all studies reviewed they exhibited increased movement or increased mortality) or by the success of the resolution of the human-animal conflict (translocated individuals often returned to the capture site). Careful planning and identification of knowledge gaps are critical to increasing success rates in mitigation translocations in the face of increasing pressure to find solutions for species threatened by diverse anthropogenic factors, including climate change and exurban and energy development. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogués-Bravo, D.; Veloz, S.; Holt, B. G.; Singarayer, J.; Valdes, P.; Davis, B.; Brewer, S. C.; Williams, J. W.; Rahbek, C.

2016-12-01

Conservation decisions are informed by twenty-first-century climate impact projections that typically predict high extinction risk. Conversely, the palaeorecord shows strong sensitivity of species abundances and distributions to past climate changes, but few clear instances of extinctions attributable to rising temperatures. However, few studies have incorporated palaeoecological data into projections of future distributions. Here we project changes in abundance and conservation status under a climate warming scenario for 187 European and North American plant taxa using niche-based models calibrated against taxa-climate relationships for the past 21,000 years. We find that incorporating long-term data into niche-based models increases the magnitude of projected future changes for plant abundances and community turnover. The larger projected changes in abundances and community turnover translate into different, and often more threatened, projected IUCN conservation status for declining tree taxa, compared with traditional approaches. An average of 18.4% (North America) and 15.5% (Europe) of taxa switch IUCN categories when compared with single-time model results. When taxa categorized as `Least Concern' are excluded, the palaeo-calibrated models increase, on average, the conservation threat status of 33.2% and 56.8% of taxa. Notably, however, few models predict total disappearance of taxa, suggesting resilience for these taxa, if climate were the only extinction driver. Long-term studies linking palaeorecords and forecasting techniques have the potential to improve conservation assessments.

Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

2015-09-01

This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Darkessence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Je-An

2014-01-01

Darkessence, the dark source of anti-gravity and that of attractive gravity, serves as the largest testing ground of the interplay between quantum matter and classical gravity. We expect it to shed light on the conflict between quantum physics and gravity, the most important puzzle in fundamental physics in the 21st century. In this paper we attempt to reveal the guidelines hinted by darkessence for clarifying or even resolving the conflict. To this aim, we question (1) the compatibility of the renormalization-group (RG) running with the energy conservation, (2) the effectiveness of an effective action in quantum field theory for describing the gravitation of quantum matter, and (3) the way quantum vacuum energy gravitates. These doubts illustrate the conflict and suggest several guidelines on the resolution: the preservation of the energy conservation and the equivalence principle (or its variant) under RG running, and a natural relief of the vacuum energy catastrophe.

Illicit crops and armed conflict as constraints on biodiversity conservation in the Andes region.

PubMed

Fjeldså, Jon; Alvarez, María D; Lazcano, Juan Mario; León, Blanca

2005-05-01

Coca, once grown for local consumption in the Andes, is now produced for external markets, often in areas with armed conflict. Internationally financed eradication campaigns force traffickers and growers to constantly relocate, making drug-related activities a principal cause of forest loss. The impact on biodiversity is known only in general terms, and this article presents the first regional analysis to identify areas of special concern, using bird data as proxy. The aim of conserving all species may be significantly constrained in the Santa Marta and Perijá mountains, Darién, some parts of the Central Andes in Colombia, and between the middle Marañón and middle Huallaga valleys in Peru. Solutions to the problem must address the root causes: international drug markets, long-lasting armed conflict, and lack of alternative income for the rural poor.

Conservation challenge: human-herbivore conflict in Chebera Churchura National Park, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Datiko, Demeke; Bekele, Afework

2013-12-01

An investigation on human-herbivore conflict was carried out in CCNP between 2011 and 2012 in seven randomly selected villages (Chebera, Serri, Yora, Shita, Delba, Chuchra, Chewda) around the Park. A total of 312 household samples were identified for interview. Group discussion and field observation were also carried out. Among the respondents, the majority (83.9%) faced crop damage. African elephant (Loxodonta africana), Hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibious), African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), Desert warthog (Phacochoerus aethiopicus), Wild pig (Sus scrofa), Porcupine (Hystrix cristata), Vervet monkey (Cercopithecus aethiops) and Anubis baboon (Papio anubis) were identified as the most problematic animals in the area. However, buffalo, monkey and warthog were considered as the notorious pest. Crop damage and threats to human safety were the major problems encountered resulting in conflict between human and wildlife. Most respondents had a negative attitude towards the problem-posing animals. This will lead to a change in public attitude from one that supports wildlife conservation to sees wild herbivores as a threat and a potential negative consequence for wildlife conservation. Active measures have to be implemented to solve the problems and safeguard the future of the wildlife management in the park.

Energy demand forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Energy demand forecasting and its connection with national energy policies and decisions is examined in light of recent, sharply revised estimates of future energy requirements. Techniques of economic projects are examined. Modeling of energy demands is discussed. Renewable energy sources are discussed. The shift away from reliance of domestic users on oil and natural gas toward electricity as a primary energy resource is examined in the context of the need to conserve energy and expand generating capacity in order to avoid a significant electricity shortfall.

Marine Planning for Potential Wave Energy Facility Placement Amongst a Crowded Sea of Existing Resource Uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feist, B. E.; Fuller, E.; Plummer, M. L.

2016-12-01

Conversion to renewable energy sources is a logical response to increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Ocean wave energy is the least developed renewable energy source, despite having the highest energy per unit area. While many hurdles remain in developing wave energy, assessing potential conflicts and evaluating tradeoffs with existing uses is essential. Marine planning encompasses a broad array of activities that take place in and affect large marine ecosystems, making it an ideal tool for evaluating wave energy resource use conflicts. In this study, we focus on the potential conflicts between wave energy conversion (WEC) facilities and existing marine uses in the context of marine planning, within the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. First, we evaluated wave energy facility development using the Wave Energy Model (WEM) of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) toolkit. Second, we ran spatial analyses on model output to identify conflicts with existing marine uses including AIS based vessel traffic, VMS and observer based measures of commercial fishing effort, and marine conservation areas. We found that regions with the highest wave energy potential were distant from major cities and that infrastructure limitations (cable landing sites) restrict integration with existing power grids. We identified multiple spatial conflicts with existing marine uses; especially shipping vessels and various commercial fishing fleets, and overlap with marine conservation areas varied by conservation designation. While wave energy generation facilities may be economically viable in the California Current, this viability must be considered within the context of the costs associated with conflicts that arise with existing marine uses. Our analyses can be used to better inform placement of WEC devices (as well as other types of renewable energy facilities) in the context of marine planning by accounting for economic tradeoffs and providing spatially explicit site prioritization.

The Struggle for the Forest: Conservation and Development in the Sierra Juarez.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bray, David Barton

1991-01-01

Traces the struggle of southern Mexican communities to resist established outside exploitation and gain control of local rainforest resources. Discusses the role of local politics in resolving the conflict between economic development and conservation adherents and pursuing the goal of sustainable production. (SV)

Emotional Support Consistency and Teacher-Child Relationships Forecast Social Competence and Problem Behaviors in Prekindergarten and Kindergarten

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brock, Laura L.; Curby, Timothy W.

2014-01-01

Teachers' ratings of conflict and closeness as well as observed emotional support are known predictors of children's social functioning. Consistency in emotional support represents an emerging line of research. The goal of the present study is to understand whether the relation between the consistency of teachers' emotional support and children's…

Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-06

climate change , stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the...instability that fosters terrorism. The National Security Act of 2010 will formally address climate change and the planning requirement for the threat...of Responsibility (AOR). He will need to integrate multinational and multiagency cooperation to address climate change forecasts. The author

Preschool-age problem behavior and teacher-child conflict in school: direct and moderation effects by preschool organization.

PubMed

Skalická, Věra; Belsky, Jay; Stenseng, Frode; Wichstrøm, Lars

2015-01-01

The hypothesis was tested that the new open-group Norwegian day-care centers would more than traditionally organized centers negatively affect (a) current and (b) future teacher-child relationships, and (c) the developmental legacy of preschool problem behavior. The focus was on eight hundred and fifty 4-year-olds from 153 centers who were followed up in first grade. Results of this natural quasi-experiment revealed that children from open-group centers (a) experienced less teacher-child closeness in preschool and (b) more teacher-child conflict in first grade, and (c) that high levels of preschool problem behavior forecast especially high levels of future teacher-child conflict, but only for children from open-group centers. Results highlight the importance of spatial and social organization of day care and their translational implications. © 2015 The Authors. Child Development © 2015 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Mapping environmental land use conflict potentials and ecosystem services in agricultural watersheds.

PubMed

Kim, Ilkwon; Arnhold, Sebastian

2018-07-15

In mountainous watersheds, agricultural land use cause changes in ecosystem services, with trade-offs between crop production and erosion regulation. Management of these watersheds can generate environmental land use conflicts among regional stakeholders with different interests. Although several researches have made a start in mapping land use conflicts between human activities and conservation, spatial assessment of land use conflicts on environmental issues and ecosystem service trade-offs within agricultural areas has not been fully considered. In this study, we went further to map land use conflicts between agricultural preferences for crop production and environmental emphasis on erosion regulation. We applied an agricultural land suitability index, based on multi-criteria analysis, to estimate the spatial preference of agricultural activities, while applying the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) to reflect the environmental importance of soil erosion. Then, we classified the agricultural catchment into four levels of land use conflicts (lowest, low, high and highest) according to preference and importance of farmland areas, and we compared the classes by crop type. Soil loss in agricultural areas was estimated as 45.1thayr, and agricultural suitability as 0.873; this indicated that land use conflicts in the catchment could arise between severe soil erosion (environmental importance) and agricultural suitability (land preferences). Dry-field farms are mainly located in areas of low land use conflict level, where land preference outweighs environmental importance. When we applied farmland management scenarios with consideration of services, conversion to highest-conflict areas (Scenario 1) as 7.5% of the total area could reduce soil loss by 24.6%, while fallow land management (Scenario 2) could decrease soil loss 19.4% more than the current scenario (Business as usual). The result could maximize land management plans by extracting issues of spatial priority and use-versus-conservation conflicts as ecosystem service trade-offs from arguments over land use policy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Resolving the conflict between ecosystem protection and land use in protected areas of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico.

PubMed

Cortina-Villar, Sergio; Plascencia-Vargas, Héctor; Vaca, Raúl; Schroth, Götz; Zepeda, Yatziri; Soto-Pinto, Lorena; Nahed-Toral, José

2012-03-01

Livelihoods of people living in many protected areas (PAs) around the world are in conflict with biodiversity conservation. In Mexico, the decrees of creation of biosphere reserves state that rural communities with the right to use buffer zones must avoid deforestation and their land uses must become sustainable, a task which is not easily accomplished. The objectives of this paper are: (a) to analyze the conflict between people's livelihoods and ecosystem protection in the PAs of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas (SMC), paying special attention to the rates and causes of deforestation and (b) to review policy options to ensure forest and ecosystem conservation in these PAs, including the existing payments for environmental services system and improvements thereof as well as options for sustainable land management. We found that the three largest PAs in the SMC are still largely forested, and deforestation rates have decreased since 2000. Cases of forest conversion are located in specific zones and are related to agrarian and political conflicts as well as growing economic inequality and population numbers. These problems could cause an increase in forest loss in the near future. Payments for environmental services and access to carbon markets are identified as options to ensure forest permanence but still face problems. Challenges for the future are to integrate these incentive mechanisms with sustainable land management and a stronger involvement of land holders in conservation.

Resolving the Conflict Between Ecosystem Protection and Land Use in Protected Areas of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortina-Villar, Sergio; Plascencia-Vargas, Héctor; Vaca, Raúl; Schroth, Götz; Zepeda, Yatziri; Soto-Pinto, Lorena; Nahed-Toral, José

2012-03-01

Livelihoods of people living in many protected areas (PAs) around the world are in conflict with biodiversity conservation. In Mexico, the decrees of creation of biosphere reserves state that rural communities with the right to use buffer zones must avoid deforestation and their land uses must become sustainable, a task which is not easily accomplished. The objectives of this paper are: (a) to analyze the conflict between people's livelihoods and ecosystem protection in the PAs of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas (SMC), paying special attention to the rates and causes of deforestation and (b) to review policy options to ensure forest and ecosystem conservation in these PAs, including the existing payments for environmental services system and improvements thereof as well as options for sustainable land management. We found that the three largest PAs in the SMC are still largely forested, and deforestation rates have decreased since 2000. Cases of forest conversion are located in specific zones and are related to agrarian and political conflicts as well as growing economic inequality and population numbers. These problems could cause an increase in forest loss in the near future. Payments for environmental services and access to carbon markets are identified as options to ensure forest permanence but still face problems. Challenges for the future are to integrate these incentive mechanisms with sustainable land management and a stronger involvement of land holders in conservation.

From cheetahs to chimpanzees: a comparative review of the drivers of human-carnivore conflict and human-primate conflict.

PubMed

Dickman, Amy J

2012-01-01

Human-wildlife conflict is a growing conservation threat, and is increasingly of importance to primate conservationists. Despite this, relatively little work has been done to date on the drivers of human-primate conflict, especially compared to other conflict-causing taxa such as large carnivores. However, the drivers of conflict are often very similar across species, so conflict researchers can learn important lessons from work conducted on other taxa. This paper discusses 8 key factors which are likely to affect how hostile people are towards wildlife and any damage they cause--6 of these are common to both carnivores and primates, while one is much more applicable to carnivores and the other is specific to primates. These conflict drivers involve numerous social and cultural factors, and highlight the importance of truly understanding the local drivers of conflict in order to develop effective mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Environmental land use conflicts in catchments: A major cause of amplified nitrate in river water.

PubMed

Pacheco, F A L; Sanches Fernandes, L F

2016-04-01

Environmental land use conflicts are uses of the land that ignore soil capability. In this study, environmental land use conflicts were investigated in mainland Portugal, using Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression combined with GIS modeling and a group of 85 agricultural watersheds (with >50% occupation by agriculture) as work sample. The results indicate a dominance of conflicts in a region where vineyards systematically invaded steep hillsides (the River Douro basin), where forests would be the most appropriate use. As a consequence of the conflicts, nitrate concentrations in rivers and lakes from these areas have increased, sometimes beyond the legal limit of 50mg/L imposed by the European and Portuguese laws. Excessive nitrate concentrations were also observed along the Atlantic coast of continental Portugal, but associated to a combination of other factors: large population densities, and incomplete coverage by sewage systems and inadequate functioning of wastewater treatment plants. Before this study, environmental land use conflicts were never recognized as possible boost of nitrate concentrations in surface water. Bearing in mind the consequences of drinking water nitrate for human health, a number of land use change scenarios were investigated to forecast their impact on freshwater nitrate concentrations. It was seen that an aggravation of the conflicts would duplicate the number of watersheds with maximum nitrate concentrations above 50mg/L (from 11 to 20 watersheds), while the elimination of the conflicts would greatly reduce that number (to 3 watersheds). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conservation and Management for Fish-eating Birds and Endangered Salmon

Treesearch

D. D. Roby; K. Collis; D. E. Lyons

2005-01-01

A conflict involving piscivorous birds and salmonids in the Pacific Northwest pits the conservation of protected migratory waterbirds against the restoration of Columbia Basin salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) that are listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The Columbia River Avian Predation Project is a cooperative, collaborative research project...

Conservatism in America--What Does it Mean for Teacher Education?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dolce, Carl J.

The current conflict among opposing sets of cultural ideals is illustrated by several interrelated conditions. The conservative phenomenon is more complex than the traditional liberal-conservative dichotomy would suggest. Changes in societal conditions invite a reexamination of basic assumptions across the broad spectrum of political ideology.…

Teaching Social Welfare History and Social Welfare Policy from a Conflict Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reisch, Michael; Staller, Karen M.

2011-01-01

In schools of social work, policy courses are frequently taught assuming debates occur along a liberal-conservative ideological continuum in which liberals favor equitable distribution of societal benefits and burdens, whereas conservatives emphasize individual political and property rights and personal responsibility. This dichotomous approach…

A Study of the Development of Scientific Literacy in Students of Conservative Christian Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johns, Christopher D.

2012-01-01

A collision of concepts often occurs within the science classrooms of Christian schools. Students are faced with the task of accommodating biblical teachings with science theories that are not only incompatible but often directly conflicting. Teachers in the Christian school must choose to what extent and how this conflicting information will be…

The International Politics of Peace Education: The Conflict between Deterrence and Disarmament.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willers, Jack Conrad

The main impetus for peace education is the arms race, which places peace education in the conflict between conservatives advocating increased nuclear deterrence and liberals supporting nuclear disarmament. In the United States, education for peace is still in its infancy. Other developed nations, such as the Scandinavian countries and to a lesser…

Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis Version 4.0 Brings Forecasting Speed, Accuracy, and Capability Improvements to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sterling, K.; Denbo, D. W.; Eble, M. C.

2016-12-01

Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) software was developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) for use in tsunami forecasting and has been used by both U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) since 2012, when SIFTv3.1 was operationally accepted. Since then, advancements in research and modeling have resulted in several new features being incorporated into SIFT forecasting. Following the priorities and needs of the TWCs, upgrades to SIFT forecasting were implemented into SIFTv4.0, scheduled to become operational in October 2016. Because every minute counts in the early warning process, two major time saving features were implemented in SIFT 4.0. To increase processing speeds and generate high-resolution flooding forecasts more quickly, the tsunami propagation and inundation codes were modified to run on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). To reduce time demand on duty scientists during an event, an automated DART inversion (or fitting) process was implemented. To increase forecasting accuracy, the forecasted amplitudes and inundations were adjusted to include dynamic tidal oscillations, thereby reducing the over-estimates of flooding common in SIFTv3.1 due to the static tide stage conservatively set at Mean High Water. Further improvements to forecasts were gained through the assimilation of additional real-time observations. Cabled array measurements from Bottom Pressure Recorders (BPRs) in the Oceans Canada NEPTUNE network are now available to SIFT for use in the inversion process. To better meet the needs of harbor masters and emergency managers, SIFTv4.0 adds a tsunami currents graphical product to the suite of disseminated forecast results. When delivered, these new features in SIFTv4.0 will improve the operational tsunami forecasting speed, accuracy, and capabilities at NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers.

Forecasting relative impacts of land use on anadromous fish habitat to guide conservation planning.

PubMed

Lohse, Kathleen A; Newburn, David A; Opperman, Jeff J; Merenlender, Adina M

2008-03-01

Land use change can adversely affect water quality and freshwater ecosystems, yet our ability to predict how systems will respond to different land uses, particularly rural-residential development, is limited by data availability and our understanding of biophysical thresholds. In this study, we use spatially explicit parcel-level data to examine the influence of land use (including urban, rural-residential, and vineyard) on salmon spawning substrate quality in tributaries of the Russian River in California. We develop a land use change model to forecast the probability of losses in high-quality spawning habitat and recommend priority areas for incentive-based land conservation efforts. Ordinal logistic regression results indicate that all three land use types were negatively associated with spawning substrate quality, with urban development having the largest marginal impact. For two reasons, however, forecasted rural-residential and vineyard development have much larger influences on decreasing spawning substrate quality relative to urban development. First, the land use change model estimates 10 times greater land use conversion to both rural-residential and vineyard compared to urban. Second, forecasted urban development is concentrated in the most developed watersheds, which already have poor spawning substrate quality, such that the marginal response to future urban development is less significant. To meet the goals of protecting salmonid spawning habitat and optimizing investments in salmon recovery, we suggest investing in watersheds where future rural-residential development and vineyards threaten high-quality fish habitat, rather than the most developed watersheds, where land values are higher.

Longitudinal relations between constructive and destructive conflict and couples' sleep.

PubMed

El-Sheikh, Mona; Kelly, Ryan J; Koss, Kalsea J; Rauer, Amy J

2015-06-01

We examined longitudinal relations between interpartner constructive (negotiation) and destructive (psychological and physical aggression) conflict strategies and couples' sleep over 1 year. Toward explicating processes of effects, we assessed the intervening role of internalizing symptoms in associations between conflict tactics and couples' sleep. Participants were 135 cohabiting couples (M age = 37 years for women and 39 years for men). The sample included a large representation of couples exposed to economic adversity. Further, 68% were European American and the remainder were primarily African American. At Time 1 (T1), couples reported on their conflict and their mental health (depression, anxiety). At T1 and Time 2, sleep was examined objectively with actigraphs for 7 nights. Three sleep parameters were derived: efficiency, minutes, and latency. Actor-partner interdependence models indicated that husbands' use of constructive conflict forecasted increases in their own sleep efficiency as well as their own and their wives' sleep duration over time. Actor and partner effects emerged, and husbands' and wives' use of destructive conflict strategies generally predicted worsening of some sleep parameters over time. Several mediation and intervening effects were observed for destructive conflict strategies. Some of these relations reveal that destructive conflict is associated with internalizing symptoms, which in turn are associated with some sleep parameters longitudinally. These findings build on a small, albeit growing, literature linking sleep with marital functioning, and illustrate that consideration of relationship processes including constructive conflict holds promise for gaining a better understanding of factors that influence the sleep of men and women. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

2017-12-01

Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

The Chicago to Iowa City intercity passenger rail route : business plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-21

Business Plan Highlights : -No Iowa General Fund or RIIF appropriations : -State/local partnership : -Funds operation for the first 10 years : -Local cash commitment to passenger rail : -Conservative and practical financial forecasts : -Three compone...

Proceedings of the Annual Meeting of the Association for Education in Journalism and Mass Communication (85th, Miami, Florida, August 5-8, 2002). Law Division.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

2002

The Law Division of the proceedings contains the following 8 papers: "Trademarks and the First Amendment: The Anatomy of a Conflict" (Retha J. Martin); "Exit Polls and Other Bad Habits: An Analysis of First Amendment Considerations Concerning Policy Recommendations to Control or Prohibit Media Election Forecasts" (Niels…

Social Support from Work and Family Domains as an Antecedent or Moderator of Work-Family Conflicts?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seiger, Christine P.; Wiese, Bettina S.

2009-01-01

On the basis of Conservation of Resources theory, we investigated how social support from supervisor, co-workers, life partner, and family members is associated with work-family conflicts in N=107 working mothers. We used data from a cross-sectional questionnaire and a standardized diary to examine two possible forms of interplay: (a) Social…

Do Workers Who Experience Conflict between the Work and Family Domains Hit a "Glass Ceiling?": A Meta-Analytic Examination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoobler, Jenny M.; Hu, Jia; Wilson, Morgan

2010-01-01

Based in Conservation of Resources (COR; Hobfoll, 1989) and self-verification (Swann, 1987) theories, we argue that when workers experience conflict between the work and family domains, this should have implications for evaluations of their work performance and ultimately affect more "objective" career outcomes such as salary and hierarchical…

Positive Justice Reasoning in Deaf and Hearing Children before and after Exposure to Cognitive Conflict.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Candida C.; Peterson, James L.

1989-01-01

A study comparing 65 deaf and hearing Australian children, aged 7-13, found that deaf subjects were delayed in number and liquid conservation, but equally mature in justice reasoning. Deaf subjects were less likely to disagree with a reward allocation proposed by an adult and to make cognitive progress when encountering conflict. (Author/JDD)

Cry Wolf!: Narratives of Wolf Recovery in France and Norway

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Skogen, Ketil; Mauz, Isabelle; Krange, Olve

2008-01-01

Due to strict protection through the last decades, wolves have returned to many areas from which they have been absent for a long time. This is a conservation success story, but the wolves also cause conflicts wherever they arrive. We have studied the situation in southeastern Norway and in the French Alps, where the conflict patterns are similar.…

Renewable energy and wildlife conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Khalil, Mona

2016-09-09

The renewable energy sector is rapidly expanding and diversifying the power supply of the country. Yet, as our Nation works to advance renewable energy and to conserve wildlife, some conflicts arise. To address these challenges, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting innovative research and developing workable solutions to reduce impacts of renewable energy production on wildlife.

36 CFR 254.1 - Scope and applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... equalization payments made available through the Land and Water Conservation Act of 1965, as amended (16 U.S.C... exchanges of land or interests in land, including but not limited to minerals, water rights, and timber... Conservation Act (16 U.S.C. 3192), shall be limited to those provisions which do not conflict with the...

36 CFR 254.1 - Scope and applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... equalization payments made available through the Land and Water Conservation Act of 1965, as amended (16 U.S.C... exchanges of land or interests in land, including but not limited to minerals, water rights, and timber... Conservation Act (16 U.S.C. 3192), shall be limited to those provisions which do not conflict with the...

36 CFR 254.1 - Scope and applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... equalization payments made available through the Land and Water Conservation Act of 1965, as amended (16 U.S.C... exchanges of land or interests in land, including but not limited to minerals, water rights, and timber... Conservation Act (16 U.S.C. 3192), shall be limited to those provisions which do not conflict with the...

36 CFR 254.1 - Scope and applicability.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... equalization payments made available through the Land and Water Conservation Act of 1965, as amended (16 U.S.C... exchanges of land or interests in land, including but not limited to minerals, water rights, and timber... Conservation Act (16 U.S.C. 3192), shall be limited to those provisions which do not conflict with the...

Exploring Children's Perceptions of Cheetahs through Storytelling: Implications for Cheetah Conservation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Courtney

2013-01-01

Namibia's cheetah population has predominantly been threatened by human conflict related to livestock farming and habitat loss. Cheetahs have been indiscriminately persecuted as a mortal threat to livestock, as well as suffered from human-caused land use change. The Cheetah Conservation Fund (CCF) in Otjiwarongo, Namibia conducts cheetah research…

Chapter 17. Information needs: Great gray owls

Treesearch

Gregory D. Hayward

1994-01-01

Current understanding of great gray owl biology and ecology is based on studies of less than five populations. In an ideal world, a strong conservation strategy would require significant new information. However, current knowledge suggests that conservation of this forest owl should involve fewer conflicts than either the boreal or flammulated owl. The mix of forest...

Does sex matter? Temporal and spatial patterns of cougar-human conflict in British Columbia.

PubMed

Teichman, Kristine J; Cristescu, Bogdan; Nielsen, Scott E

2013-01-01

Wildlife-human conflicts occur wherever large carnivores overlap human inhabited areas. Conflict mitigation can be facilitated by understanding long-term dynamics and examining sex-structured conflict patterns. Predicting areas with high probability of conflict helps focus management strategies in order to proactively decrease carnivore mortality. We investigated the importance of cougar (Puma concolor) habitat, human landscape characteristics and the combination of habitat and human features on the temporal and spatial patterns of cougar-human conflicts in British Columbia. Conflicts (n = 1,727; 1978-2007) involved similar numbers of male and female cougars with conflict rate decreasing over the past decade. Conflicts were concentrated within the southern part of the province with the most conflicts per unit area occurring on Vancouver Island. For both sexes, the most supported spatial models for the most recent (1998-2007) conflicts contained both human and habitat variables. Conflicts were more likely to occur close to roads, at intermediate elevations and far from the northern edge of the cougar distribution range in British Columbia. Male cougar conflicts were more likely to occur in areas of intermediate human density. Unlike cougar conflicts in other regions, cattle density was not a significant predictor of conflict location. With human populations expanding, conflicts are expected to increase. Conservation tools, such as the maps predicting conflict hotspots from this study, can help focus management efforts to decrease carnivore-human conflict.

Forecast Mekong: navigating changing waters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powell, Janine

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using research and data from the Mekong River Delta in Southeast Asia to compare restoration, conservation, and management efforts there with those done in other major river deltas, such as the Mississippi River Delta in the United States. The project provides a forum to engage regional partners in the Mekong Basin countries to share data and support local research efforts. Ultimately, Forecast Mekong will lead to more informed decisions about how to make the Mekong and Mississippi Deltas resilient in the face of climate change, economic stresses, and other impacts.

Competing conservation objectives for predators and prey: estimating killer whale prey requirements for Chinook salmon.

PubMed

Williams, Rob; Krkošek, Martin; Ashe, Erin; Branch, Trevor A; Clark, Steve; Hammond, Philip S; Hoyt, Erich; Noren, Dawn P; Rosen, David; Winship, Arliss

2011-01-01

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of marine resources attempts to conserve interacting species. In contrast to single-species fisheries management, EBM aims to identify and resolve conflicting objectives for different species. Such a conflict may be emerging in the northeastern Pacific for southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) and their primary prey, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Both species have at-risk conservation status and transboundary (Canada-US) ranges. We modeled individual killer whale prey requirements from feeding and growth records of captive killer whales and morphometric data from historic live-capture fishery and whaling records worldwide. The models, combined with caloric value of salmon, and demographic and diet data for wild killer whales, allow us to predict salmon quantities needed to maintain and recover this killer whale population, which numbered 87 individuals in 2009. Our analyses provide new information on cost of lactation and new parameter estimates for other killer whale populations globally. Prey requirements of southern resident killer whales are difficult to reconcile with fisheries and conservation objectives for Chinook salmon, because the number of fish required is large relative to annual returns and fishery catches. For instance, a U.S. recovery goal (2.3% annual population growth of killer whales over 28 years) implies a 75% increase in energetic requirements. Reducing salmon fisheries may serve as a temporary mitigation measure to allow time for management actions to improve salmon productivity to take effect. As ecosystem-based fishery management becomes more prevalent, trade-offs between conservation objectives for predators and prey will become increasingly necessary. Our approach offers scenarios to compare relative influence of various sources of uncertainty on the resulting consumption estimates to prioritise future research efforts, and a general approach for assessing the extent of conflict between conservation objectives for threatened or protected wildlife where the interaction between affected species can be quantified.

Competing Conservation Objectives for Predators and Prey: Estimating Killer Whale Prey Requirements for Chinook Salmon

PubMed Central

Williams, Rob; Krkošek, Martin; Ashe, Erin; Branch, Trevor A.; Clark, Steve; Hammond, Philip S.; Hoyt, Erich; Noren, Dawn P.; Rosen, David; Winship, Arliss

2011-01-01

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of marine resources attempts to conserve interacting species. In contrast to single-species fisheries management, EBM aims to identify and resolve conflicting objectives for different species. Such a conflict may be emerging in the northeastern Pacific for southern resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) and their primary prey, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Both species have at-risk conservation status and transboundary (Canada–US) ranges. We modeled individual killer whale prey requirements from feeding and growth records of captive killer whales and morphometric data from historic live-capture fishery and whaling records worldwide. The models, combined with caloric value of salmon, and demographic and diet data for wild killer whales, allow us to predict salmon quantities needed to maintain and recover this killer whale population, which numbered 87 individuals in 2009. Our analyses provide new information on cost of lactation and new parameter estimates for other killer whale populations globally. Prey requirements of southern resident killer whales are difficult to reconcile with fisheries and conservation objectives for Chinook salmon, because the number of fish required is large relative to annual returns and fishery catches. For instance, a U.S. recovery goal (2.3% annual population growth of killer whales over 28 years) implies a 75% increase in energetic requirements. Reducing salmon fisheries may serve as a temporary mitigation measure to allow time for management actions to improve salmon productivity to take effect. As ecosystem-based fishery management becomes more prevalent, trade-offs between conservation objectives for predators and prey will become increasingly necessary. Our approach offers scenarios to compare relative influence of various sources of uncertainty on the resulting consumption estimates to prioritise future research efforts, and a general approach for assessing the extent of conflict between conservation objectives for threatened or protected wildlife where the interaction between affected species can be quantified. PMID:22096495

Land Suitability Assessment in the Catchment Area of Four Southwestern Atlantic Coastal Lagoons: Multicriteria and Optimization Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez-Gallego, Lorena; Achkar, Marcel; Conde, Daniel

2012-07-01

In the present study, a land suitability assessment was conducted in the basin of four Uruguayan coastal lagoons (Southwestern Atlantic) to analyze the productive development while minimizing eutrophication, biodiversity loss and conflicts among different land uses. Suitable land for agriculture, forest, livestock ranching, tourism and conservation sectors were initially established based on a multi-attribute model developed using a geographic information system. Experts were consulted to determine the requirements for each land use sector and the incompatibilities among land use types. The current and potential conflicts among incompatible land use sectors were analyzed by overlapping land suitability maps. We subsequently applied a multi-objective model where land (pixels) with similar suitability was clustered into "land suitability groups", using a two-phase cluster analysis and the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally, a linear programming optimization procedure was applied to allocate land use sectors into land suitable groups, maximizing total suitability and minimizing interference among sectors. Results indicated that current land use overlapped by 4.7 % with suitable land of other incompatible sectors. However, the suitable land of incompatible sectors overlapped in 20.3 % of the study area, indicating a high potential for the occurrence of future conflict. The highest competition was between agriculture and conservation, followed by forest and agriculture. We explored scenarios where livestock ranching and tourism intensified, and found that interference with conservation and agriculture notably increased. This methodology allowed us to analyze current and potential land use conflicts and to contribute to the strategic planning of the study area.

International consensus principles for ethical wildlife control.

PubMed

Dubois, Sara; Fenwick, Nicole; Ryan, Erin A; Baker, Liv; Baker, Sandra E; Beausoleil, Ngaio J; Carter, Scott; Cartwright, Barbara; Costa, Federico; Draper, Chris; Griffin, John; Grogan, Adam; Howald, Gregg; Jones, Bidda; Littin, Kate E; Lombard, Amanda T; Mellor, David J; Ramp, Daniel; Schuppli, Catherine A; Fraser, David

2017-08-01

Human-wildlife conflicts are commonly addressed by excluding, relocating, or lethally controlling animals with the goal of preserving public health and safety, protecting property, or conserving other valued wildlife. However, declining wildlife populations, a lack of efficacy of control methods in achieving desired outcomes, and changes in how people value animals have triggered widespread acknowledgment of the need for ethical and evidence-based approaches to managing such conflicts. We explored international perspectives on and experiences with human-wildlife conflicts to develop principles for ethical wildlife control. A diverse panel of 20 experts convened at a 2-day workshop and developed the principles through a facilitated engagement process and discussion. They determined that efforts to control wildlife should begin wherever possible by altering the human practices that cause human-wildlife conflict and by developing a culture of coexistence; be justified by evidence that significant harms are being caused to people, property, livelihoods, ecosystems, and/or other animals; have measurable outcome-based objectives that are clear, achievable, monitored, and adaptive; predictably minimize animal welfare harms to the fewest number of animals; be informed by community values as well as scientific, technical, and practical information; be integrated into plans for systematic long-term management; and be based on the specifics of the situation rather than negative labels (pest, overabundant) applied to the target species. We recommend that these principles guide development of international, national, and local standards and control decisions and implementation. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Land suitability assessment in the catchment area of four Southwestern Atlantic coastal lagoons: multicriteria and optimization modeling.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Gallego, Lorena; Achkar, Marcel; Conde, Daniel

2012-07-01

In the present study, a land suitability assessment was conducted in the basin of four Uruguayan coastal lagoons (Southwestern Atlantic) to analyze the productive development while minimizing eutrophication, biodiversity loss and conflicts among different land uses. Suitable land for agriculture, forest, livestock ranching, tourism and conservation sectors were initially established based on a multi-attribute model developed using a geographic information system. Experts were consulted to determine the requirements for each land use sector and the incompatibilities among land use types. The current and potential conflicts among incompatible land use sectors were analyzed by overlapping land suitability maps. We subsequently applied a multi-objective model where land (pixels) with similar suitability was clustered into "land suitability groups", using a two-phase cluster analysis and the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally, a linear programming optimization procedure was applied to allocate land use sectors into land suitable groups, maximizing total suitability and minimizing interference among sectors. Results indicated that current land use overlapped by 4.7 % with suitable land of other incompatible sectors. However, the suitable land of incompatible sectors overlapped in 20.3 % of the study area, indicating a high potential for the occurrence of future conflict. The highest competition was between agriculture and conservation, followed by forest and agriculture. We explored scenarios where livestock ranching and tourism intensified, and found that interference with conservation and agriculture notably increased. This methodology allowed us to analyze current and potential land use conflicts and to contribute to the strategic planning of the study area.

Work-family conflicts and work performance.

PubMed

Roth, Lawrence; David, Emily M

2009-08-01

Prior research indicates that work-family conflict interferes with family far more than it interferes with work. Conservation of resources provides a possible explanation: when shifting resources from family is no longer sufficient to maintain satisfactory work performance, then workers must acquire additional resources or reduce investments in work. One source of such additional resources could be high performance peers in the work group. The performance of workers with resource-rich peers may be less adversely affected by work-family conflict. In this study, 136 employees of a wholesale distribution firm (61% women, 62% minority) working in groups of 7 to 11 in manual labor and low-level administrative jobs rated their own work-to-family conflict. Their supervisors rated workers' performance. Hierarchical regression analysis indicated that work-to-family conflict increasingly adversely affected job performance as work group performance decreased. Hence, work group performance may be an important moderator of the effects of work-family conflict.

Using HexSim to simulate complex species, landscape, and stressor interactions

EPA Science Inventory

Background / Question / Methods The use of simulation models in conservation biology, landscape ecology, and other disciplines is increasing. Models are essential tools for researchers who, for example, need to forecast future conditions, weigh competing recovery and mitigation...

USING ECO-EVOLUTIONARY INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODELS TO INVESTIGATE SPATIALLY-DEPENDENT PROCESSES IN CONSERVATION GENETICS

EPA Science Inventory

Eco-evolutionary population simulation models are powerful new forecasting tools for exploring management strategies for climate change and other dynamic disturbance regimes. Additionally, eco-evo individual-based models (IBMs) are useful for investigating theoretical feedbacks ...

Forecasting runoff from Pennsylvania landscapes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Identifying sites prone to surface runoff has been a cornerstone of conservation and nutrient management programs, relying upon site assessment tools that support strategic, as opposed to operational, decision making. We sought to develop simple, empirical models to represent two highly different me...

Improving social impact assessment of protected areas: A review of the literature and directions for future research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Nikoleta, E-mail: nikoleta.jones@anglia.ac.uk; McGinlay, James, E-mail: jimmcginlay@hotmail.com; Dimitrakopoulos, Panayiotis G., E-mail: pdimi@env.aegean.gr

Protected areas are the most widely applied policy tool for biodiversity conservation. However, effective management of protected areas is often obstructed by conflicts mainly associated with the social impacts imposed on local communities and other users by their establishment. Despite the importance of these social impacts they remain significantly under-researched. There is now an increasing need to incorporate social impacts in decision making processes by providing accurate estimations and develop ways to forecast their change in the future. Considering the increase of studies identifying this need, the present paper aims to indicate three main directions that will assist in designingmore » effective tools for measuring and most importantly understanding social impacts: a) perceptions on social impacts of individuals who are directly affected by protected areas need to be incorporated in management evaluation techniques in a meaningful and accurate way and be combined with objective measurements of impact; b) understanding the factors determining the actual and perceived levels of social impacts is a key step for the design of effective management frameworks of protected areas and c) social impacts should not be seen as static concepts but should be seen as a dynamic and long-term factor which needs to be incorporated in decision-making processes.« less

Ameliorating conflicts among deer, elk, cattle and/or other ungulates and other forest uses: a synthesis

Treesearch

Russell T. Graham; Theresa B. Jain; James L. Kingery

2010-01-01

In many boreal and temperate forests, ungulates are an important feature valued by many stakeholders. However, conflicts often arise due to the use of a forest by both domestic and wild ungulates and other uses such as timber production, recreation and conservation. In this paper, we present and synthesize several concepts and suggestions that have applicability for...

Wartime Automation Requirements for Maintenance.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-10-01

of training and humanitarian missions, it is difficult to distinguish between levels of conflict, which may vary due to escalation and de -escalation...the pipeline full of materiel and offset costly requisition and transportation time. The one situation which has changed today is not airbase I Rich...forecast requirements far enough ahead to allow our overtaxed transportation system enough time to move them to the right place at the right time. The

Managing conflict between large carnivores and livestock.

PubMed

van Eeden, Lily M; Crowther, Mathew S; Dickman, Chris R; Macdonald, David W; Ripple, William J; Ritchie, Euan G; Newsome, Thomas M

2018-02-01

Large carnivores are persecuted globally because they threaten human industries and livelihoods. How this conflict is managed has consequences for the conservation of large carnivores and biodiversity more broadly. Mitigating human-predator conflict should be evidence-based and accommodate people's values while protecting carnivores. Despite much research into human and large-carnivore coexistence strategies, there have been few attempts to document the success of conflict-mitigation strategies on a global scale. We conducted a meta-analysis of global research on conflict mitigation related to large carnivores and humans. We focused on conflicts that arise from the threat large carnivores pose to livestock. We first used structured and unstructured searching to identify replicated studies that used before-after or control-impact design to measure change in livestock loss as a result of implementing a management intervention. We then extracted relevant data from these studies to calculate an overall effect size for each intervention type. Research effort and focus varied among continents and aligned with the histories and cultures that shaped livestock production and attitudes toward carnivores. Livestock guardian animals most effectively reduced livestock losses. Lethal control was the second most effective control, although its success varied the most, and guardian animals and lethal control did not differ significantly. Financial incentives have promoted tolerance of large carnivores in some settings and reduced retaliatory killings. We suggest coexistence strategies be location-specific, incorporate cultural values and environmental conditions, and be designed such that return on financial investment can be evaluated. Improved monitoring of mitigation measures is urgently required to promote effective evidence-based policy. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Alternative large-scale conservation visions for northern Maine: interviews with decision leaders in Maine

Treesearch

Elizabeth Dennis Baldwin; Laura S. Kenefic; Will F. LaPage

2007-01-01

Based on confidential interviews with 21 decision leaders in Maine, Elizabeth Baldwin, Laura Kenefic, and Will LaPage examine the complexity of the conflicts over alternate visions for large-scale conservation in Maine. Exploring models that may be useful for policymakers grappling with competing values for Maine's forests, they present four alternatives: national...

Evaluation of Ensemble Water Supply and Demands Forecasts for Water Management in the Klamath River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.; McGuire, M.; Wood, A.; Leady, Z.; Tansey, M. K.; Nelson, K.; Dahm, K.

2017-12-01

The Upper Klamath River Basin in south central Oregon and north central California is home to the Klamath Irrigation Project, which is operated by the Bureau of Reclamation and provides water to around 200,000 acres of agricultural lands. The project is managed in consideration of not only water deliveries to irrigators, but also wildlife refuge water demands, biological opinion requirements for Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed fish, and Tribal Trust responsibilities. Climate change has the potential to impact water management in terms of volume and timing of water and the ability to meet multiple objectives. Current operations use a spreadsheet-based decision support tool, with water supply forecasts from the National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). This tool is currently limited in its ability to incorporate in ensemble forecasts, which offer the potential for improved operations by quantifying forecast uncertainty. To address these limitations, this study has worked to develop a RiverWare based water resource systems model, flexible enough to use across multiple decision time-scales, from short-term operations out to long-range planning. Systems model development has been accompanied by operational system development to handle data management and multiple modeling components. Using a set of ensemble hindcasts, this study seeks to answer several questions: A) Do a new set of ensemble streamflow forecasts have additional skill beyond what?, and allow for improved decision making under changing conditions? B) Do net irrigation water requirement forecasts developed in this project to quantify agricultural demands and reservoir evaporation forecasts provide additional benefits to decision making beyond water supply forecasts? C) What benefit do ensemble forecasts have in the context of water management decisions?

The social function of technology assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huddle, F. P.

1972-01-01

The problem of preserving the uneasy balance between a dynamic society and the equilibrium of man-environment society is discussed. Four sets of activities involved in technology assessment are considered: (1) Technology forecasting is necessary to warn of future dangers and opportunities, for effective timing, and to identify tradeoffs and alternatives. But forecasting is also chancy at best. (2) Social indicators need to be developed for the characterization of social status and measurement of social progress, as well as a better understanding of social needs. (3) With respect to technology assessment, the conflict between profitable directions of innovations and socially desirable directions is described, and a systematic way is needed to determine in advance what is technologically feasible to meet social needs. (4) National goals with respect to scientific and technological developments are also required.

Does Sex Matter? Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Cougar-Human Conflict in British Columbia

PubMed Central

Teichman, Kristine J.; Cristescu, Bogdan; Nielsen, Scott E.

2013-01-01

Wildlife-human conflicts occur wherever large carnivores overlap human inhabited areas. Conflict mitigation can be facilitated by understanding long-term dynamics and examining sex-structured conflict patterns. Predicting areas with high probability of conflict helps focus management strategies in order to proactively decrease carnivore mortality. We investigated the importance of cougar (Puma concolor) habitat, human landscape characteristics and the combination of habitat and human features on the temporal and spatial patterns of cougar-human conflicts in British Columbia. Conflicts (n = 1,727; 1978–2007) involved similar numbers of male and female cougars with conflict rate decreasing over the past decade. Conflicts were concentrated within the southern part of the province with the most conflicts per unit area occurring on Vancouver Island. For both sexes, the most supported spatial models for the most recent (1998–2007) conflicts contained both human and habitat variables. Conflicts were more likely to occur close to roads, at intermediate elevations and far from the northern edge of the cougar distribution range in British Columbia. Male cougar conflicts were more likely to occur in areas of intermediate human density. Unlike cougar conflicts in other regions, cattle density was not a significant predictor of conflict location. With human populations expanding, conflicts are expected to increase. Conservation tools, such as the maps predicting conflict hotspots from this study, can help focus management efforts to decrease carnivore-human conflict. PMID:24040312

You Can Help Keep the Air Cleaner -- Every Day

MedlinePlus

... to be high: Conserve electricity and set your air conditioner at a higher temperature. Choose a cleaner commute—share a ride to work or use public transportation. Bicycle or walk to errands when ... quality is forecast. Pesticides Days when particle pollution ...

Analysis of Factors Influencing Energy Consumption at an Air Force Base.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-12-01

include them in energy consumption projections. 28 Table 2-3 Selected Independent Variables ( Morill , 1985) Dependent Variable Energy Conservation...most appropriate method for forecasting energy consumption (Weck, 1981; Tinsley, 1981; and Morill , 1985). This section will present a brief

Watershed Conservation, Groundwater Management, and Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roumasset, J.; Burnett, K.; Wada, C.

2009-12-01

Sustainability science is transdisciplinary, organizing research to deliver meaningful and practical contributions to critical issues of resource management. As yet, however, sustainability science has not been integrated with the policy sciences. We provide a step towards integration by providing an integrated model of optimal groundwater management and investment in watershed conservation. The joint optimization problem is solved under alternative forecasts of the changing rainfall distribution for the Koolau Watershed in Oahu, Hawaii. Optimal groundwater management is solved using a simplified one-dimensional model of the groundwater aquifer for analytical tractability. For a constant aquifer recharge, the model solves for the optimal trajectories of water extraction up to the desalination steady state and an incentive compatible pricing scheme. The Koolau Watershed is currently being degraded, however, by invasive plants such as Miconia calvescens and feral animals, especially wild pigs. Runoff and erosion have increased and groundwater recharge is at risk. The Koolau Partnership, a coalition of private owners, the State Department of Land and Natural Resources have proposed a $5 million (present value) conservation plan that promises to halt further losses of recharge. We compare this to the enhanced present value of the aquifer, showing the benefits are an order of magnitude greater than the costs. If conservation is done in the absence of efficient groundwater management, however, more than 40% of the potential benefits would be wasted by under-pricing and overconsumption. We require an estimate of the rainfall-generating distribution and how that distribution is changing over time. We obtain these from statistical downsizing of IPCC climate models. Despite the finding that global warming will increase precipitation for most of the world, the opposite is forecast for Hawaii. A University of Hawaii study finds that the most likely precipitation scenario is a 5-10% reduction in wet season mean precipitation and a 5% increase during the dry season by the end of the 21st century. These trends will be used to condition the time series analysis through Bayesian updating. The resulting distributions, conditioned for seasonality and long-run climate change, will be used to recursively simulate daily rainfalls, thereby allowing for serial correlation and forming a basis for the watershed model to recursively determine components of the water balance equation. The methodology will allow us to generate different sequences of rainfall from the estimated distribution and the corresponding recharge functions. These in turn are used as the basis of optimizing groundwater management under both the watershed conservation program and no conservation. We calculate how much adaptation via joint optimization of watershed conservation and groundwater management decreases the damages from declining precipitation. Inasmuch as groundwater scarcity increases with the forecasted climate change, even under optimal groundwater management, the value of watershed conservation also increases.

The North American model and captive cervid facilities—What is the threat?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Organ, John F.; Decker, Thomas A.; Lama, Tanya M.

2016-01-01

The North American Model of Wildlife Conservation represents the key principles that in combination resulted in a distinct form of wildlife conservation in the United States and Canada. How and to what extent captive cervid facilities comport with or conflict with these principles has implications for wildlife conservation. Greatest threats appear to be toward principles of public ownership of wildlife, allocation of wildlife by law, and in policy decisions based on science. Captive cervid facilities have potential to contribute to erosion of the underlying principles of the Model and could undermine public support for conservation initiatives.

Laying the foundations for a human-predator conflict solution: assessing the impact of Bonelli's eagle on rabbits and partridges.

PubMed

Moleón, Marcos; Sánchez-Zapata, José A; Gil-Sánchez, José M; Barea-Azcón, José M; Ballesteros-Duperón, Elena; Virgós, Emilio

2011-01-01

Predation may potentially lead to negative effects on both prey (directly via predators) and predators (indirectly via human persecution). Predation pressure studies are, therefore, of major interest in the fields of theoretical knowledge and conservation of prey or predator species, with wide ramifications and profound implications in human-wildlife conflicts. However, detailed works on this issue in highly valuable--in conservation terms--Mediterranean ecosystems are virtually absent. This paper explores the predator-hunting conflict by examining a paradigmatic, Mediterranean-wide (endangered) predator-two prey (small game) system. We estimated the predation impact ('kill rate' and 'predation rate', i.e., number of prey and proportion of the prey population eaten, respectively) of Bonelli's eagle Aquila fasciata on rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus and red-legged partridge Alectoris rufa populations in two seasons (the eagle's breeding and non-breeding periods, 100 days each) in SE Spain. The mean estimated kill rate by the seven eagle reproductive units in the study area was c. 304 rabbits and c. 262 partridges in the breeding season, and c. 237 rabbits and c. 121 partridges in the non-breeding period. This resulted in very low predation rates (range: 0.3-2.5%) for both prey and seasons. The potential role of Bonelli's eagles as a limiting factor for rabbits and partridges at the population scale was very poor. The conflict between game profitability and conservation interest of either prey or predators is apparently very localised, and eagles, quarry species and game interests seem compatible in most of the study area. Currently, both the persecution and negative perception of Bonelli's eagle (the 'partridge-eating eagle' in Spanish) have a null theoretical basis in most of this area.

Laying the Foundations for a Human-Predator Conflict Solution: Assessing the Impact of Bonelli's Eagle on Rabbits and Partridges

PubMed Central

Moleón, Marcos; Sánchez-Zapata, José A.; Gil-Sánchez, José M.; Barea-Azcón, José M.; Ballesteros-Duperón, Elena; Virgós, Emilio

2011-01-01

Background Predation may potentially lead to negative effects on both prey (directly via predators) and predators (indirectly via human persecution). Predation pressure studies are, therefore, of major interest in the fields of theoretical knowledge and conservation of prey or predator species, with wide ramifications and profound implications in human-wildlife conflicts. However, detailed works on this issue in highly valuable –in conservation terms– Mediterranean ecosystems are virtually absent. This paper explores the predator-hunting conflict by examining a paradigmatic, Mediterranean-wide (endangered) predator-two prey (small game) system. Methodology/Principal Findings We estimated the predation impact (‘kill rate’ and ‘predation rate’, i.e., number of prey and proportion of the prey population eaten, respectively) of Bonelli's eagle Aquila fasciata on rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus and red-legged partridge Alectoris rufa populations in two seasons (the eagle's breeding and non-breeding periods, 100 days each) in SE Spain. The mean estimated kill rate by the seven eagle reproductive units in the study area was c. 304 rabbits and c. 262 partridges in the breeding season, and c. 237 rabbits and c. 121 partridges in the non-breeding period. This resulted in very low predation rates (range: 0.3–2.5%) for both prey and seasons. Conclusions/Significance The potential role of Bonelli's eagles as a limiting factor for rabbits and partridges at the population scale was very poor. The conflict between game profitability and conservation interest of either prey or predators is apparently very localised, and eagles, quarry species and game interests seem compatible in most of the study area. Currently, both the persecution and negative perception of Bonelli's eagle (the ‘partridge-eating eagle’ in Spanish) have a null theoretical basis in most of this area. PMID:21818399

The British Conservative Government and the Raising of the School Leaving Age, 1959-1964

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCulloch, Gary; Cowan, Steven; Woodin, Tom

2012-01-01

This paper establishes and explains the important role of the Conservative Government of 1959-1964 in supporting the raising of the school leaving age in Britain from the age of 15 to 16. This was a significant and high-profile national issue that generated much educational, social and political debate around conflicting priorities during this…

The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-01

Climate skeptics The climate change-conflict nexus has its fair share of skeptics. Many observers remain unconvinced that climate change, whether due...implications of climate change remain specula- tive. In addition, they observe that none of the consequences forecast in the authoritative reports of the...modern practices and relocate to the few remaining habitable regions at the extreme north- ern and southern hemispheres.33 Essam El Hinnawi first

The Design and Implementation of Eco-Evolutionary PVA Models: An Integrative Approach Using HexSim

EPA Science Inventory

To persist into the future, species of conservation concern must remain both demographically and genetically viable. Developing mitigation and recovery strategies to ensure species’ viability necessitates the use of forecasting models that can incorporate ecological and/or...

Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Systems under Uncertain Forecasts: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall'Anese, Emiliano; Baker, Kyri; Summers, Tyler

2016-12-01

The paper focuses on distribution systems featuring renewable energy sources and energy storage devices, and develops an optimal power flow (OPF) approach to optimize the system operation in spite of forecasting errors. The proposed method builds on a chance-constrained multi-period AC OPF formulation, where probabilistic constraints are utilized to enforce voltage regulation with a prescribed probability. To enable a computationally affordable solution approach, a convex reformulation of the OPF task is obtained by resorting to i) pertinent linear approximations of the power flow equations, and ii) convex approximations of the chance constraints. Particularly, the approximate chance constraints provide conservative boundsmore » that hold for arbitrary distributions of the forecasting errors. An adaptive optimization strategy is then obtained by embedding the proposed OPF task into a model predictive control framework.« less

Incorporating Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Seasonal Crop Scenarios over the Greater Horn of Africa to Support National/Regional/Local Decision Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

2015-12-01

The USAID's Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) provides seasonal assessments of crop conditions over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and other food insecure regions. These assessments and current livelihood, nutrition, market conditions and conflicts are used to generate food security scenarios that help national, regional and local decision makers target their resources and mitigate socio-economic losses. Among the various tools that FEWS NET uses is the FAO's Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI). The WRSI is a simple yet powerful crop assessment model that incorporates current moisture conditions (at the time of the issuance of forecast), precipitation scenarios, potential evapotranspiration and crop parameters to categorize crop conditions into different classes ranging from "failure" to "very good". The WRSI tool has been shown to have a good agreement with local crop yields in the GHA region. At present, the precipitation scenarios used to drive the WRSI are based on either a climatological forecast (that assigns equal chances of occurrence to all possible scenarios and has no skill over the forecast period) or a sea-surface temperature anomaly based scenario (which at best have skill at the seasonal scale). In both cases, the scenarios fail to capture the skill that can be attained by initial atmospheric conditions (i.e., medium-range weather forecasts). During the middle of a cropping season, when a week or two of poor rains can have a devastating effect, two weeks worth of skillful precipitation forecasts could improve the skill of the crop scenarios. With this working hypothesis, we examine the value of incorporating medium-range weather forecasts in improving the skill of crop scenarios in the GHA region. We use the NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecast system (GEFS) weather forecasts and examine the skill of crop scenarios generated using the GEFS weather forecasts with respect to the scenarios based solely on the climatological forecast. The period of analysis is from 1985-2010 (over which the reforecasts of GEFS is available) and the focus season is October-November-December. We examine the improvement (if any) in long-term skill, and present results for several recent drought events in the region.

Common and conflicting interests in the engagements between conservation organizations and corporations.

PubMed

Robinson, John G

2012-12-01

The conservation community increasingly views the corporate sector as a positive force for conservation. Collaborations between corporations and nongovernmental conservation organizations (NGOs) seek to mitigate the negative effects of corporate activities and augment positive conservation outcomes. I reviewed the establishment of corporate social responsibility (CSR) policies by corporations; the emerging focus on environmental practices and sustainability; and the history of engagement between corporations and nongovernmental organizations. I considered the ethical and reputation vulnerabilities of these collaborations, which depend especially on the financial nature of the relationship and reviewed how CSR approaches have influenced corporate practices. I concluded that whereas CSR practices can act to mitigate negative environmental impact, to date they have had limited positive effect on biodiversity conservation. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Assessing patterns of human-wildlife conflicts and compensation around a Central Indian protected area.

PubMed

Karanth, Krithi K; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M; DeFries, Ruth; Ballal, Natasha

2012-01-01

Mitigating crop and livestock loss to wildlife and improving compensation distribution are important for conservation efforts in landscapes where people and wildlife co-occur outside protected areas. The lack of rigorously collected spatial data poses a challenge to management efforts to minimize loss and mitigate conflicts. We surveyed 735 households from 347 villages in a 5154 km(2) area surrounding Kanha Tiger Reserve in India. We modeled self-reported household crop and livestock loss as a function of agricultural, demographic and environmental factors, and mitigation measures. We also modeled self-reported compensation received by households as a function of demographic factors, conflict type, reporting to authorities, and wildlife species involved. Seventy-three percent of households reported crop loss and 33% livestock loss in the previous year, but less than 8% reported human injury or death. Crop loss was associated with greater number of cropping months per year and proximity to the park. Livestock loss was associated with grazing animals inside the park and proximity to the park. Among mitigation measures only use of protective physical structures were associated with reduced livestock loss. Compensation distribution was more likely for tiger related incidents, and households reporting loss and located in the buffer. Average estimated probability of crop loss was 0.93 and livestock loss was 0.60 for surveyed households. Estimated crop and livestock loss and compensation distribution were higher for households located inside the buffer. Our approach modeled conflict data to aid managers in identifying potential conflict hotspots, influential factors, and spatially maps risk probability of crop and livestock loss. This approach could help focus allocation of conservation efforts and funds directed at conflict prevention and mitigation where high densities of people and wildlife co-occur.

Assessing Patterns of Human-Wildlife Conflicts and Compensation around a Central Indian Protected Area

PubMed Central

Karanth, Krithi K.; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; DeFries, Ruth; Ballal, Natasha

2012-01-01

Mitigating crop and livestock loss to wildlife and improving compensation distribution are important for conservation efforts in landscapes where people and wildlife co-occur outside protected areas. The lack of rigorously collected spatial data poses a challenge to management efforts to minimize loss and mitigate conflicts. We surveyed 735 households from 347 villages in a 5154 km2 area surrounding Kanha Tiger Reserve in India. We modeled self-reported household crop and livestock loss as a function of agricultural, demographic and environmental factors, and mitigation measures. We also modeled self-reported compensation received by households as a function of demographic factors, conflict type, reporting to authorities, and wildlife species involved. Seventy-three percent of households reported crop loss and 33% livestock loss in the previous year, but less than 8% reported human injury or death. Crop loss was associated with greater number of cropping months per year and proximity to the park. Livestock loss was associated with grazing animals inside the park and proximity to the park. Among mitigation measures only use of protective physical structures were associated with reduced livestock loss. Compensation distribution was more likely for tiger related incidents, and households reporting loss and located in the buffer. Average estimated probability of crop loss was 0.93 and livestock loss was 0.60 for surveyed households. Estimated crop and livestock loss and compensation distribution were higher for households located inside the buffer. Our approach modeled conflict data to aid managers in identifying potential conflict hotspots, influential factors, and spatially maps risk probability of crop and livestock loss. This approach could help focus allocation of conservation efforts and funds directed at conflict prevention and mitigation where high densities of people and wildlife co-occur. PMID:23227173

Developing Multi-model Ensemble for Precipitation and Temperature Seasonal Forecasts: Implications for Karkheh River Basin in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Husain; Massah Bavani, Ali Reza; Wanders, Niko; Wood, Eric; Irannejad, Parviz; Robertson, Andrew

2017-04-01

Water resource managers can utilize reliable seasonal forecasts for allocating water between different users within a water year. In the west of Iran where a decline of renewable water resources has been observed, basin-wide water management has been the subject of many inter-provincial conflicts in recent years. The problem is exacerbated when the environmental water requirements is not provided leaving the Hoor-al-Azim marshland in the downstream dry. It has been argued that information on total seasonal rainfall can support the Iranian Ministry of Energy within the water year. This study explores the skill of the North America Multi Model Ensemble for Karkheh River Basin in the of west Iran. NMME seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts from eight models are evaluated against PERSIANN-CDR and Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets. Analysis suggests that anomaly correlation for both precipitation and temperature is greater than 0.4 for all individual models. Lead time-dependent seasonal forecasts are improved when a multi-model ensemble is developed for the river basin using stepwise linear regression model. MME R-squared exceeds 0.6 for temperature for almost all initializations suggesting high skill of NMME in Karkheh river basin. The skill of MME for rainfall forecasts is high for 1-month lead time for October, February, March and October initializations. However, for months when the amount of rainfall accounts for a significant proportion of total annual rainfall, the skill of NMME is limited a month in advance. It is proposed that operational regional water companies incorporate NMME seasonal forecasts into water resource planning and management, especially during growing seasons that are essential for agricultural risk management.

Effects of payments for ecosystem services on wildlife habitat recovery.

PubMed

Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Viña, Andrés; Yang, Wu; Chen, Xiaodong; Shortridge, Ashton M; Liu, Jianguo

2016-08-01

Conflicts between local people's livelihoods and conservation have led to many unsuccessful conservation efforts and have stimulated debates on policies that might simultaneously promote sustainable management of protected areas and improve the living conditions of local people. Many government-sponsored payments-for-ecosystem-services (PES) schemes have been implemented around the world. However, few empirical assessments of their effectiveness have been conducted, and even fewer assessments have directly measured their effects on ecosystem services. We conducted an empirical and spatially explicit assessment of the conservation effectiveness of one of the world's largest PES programs through the use of a long-term empirical data set, a satellite-based habitat model, and spatial autoregressive analyses on direct measures of change in an ecosystem service (i.e., the provision of wildlife species habitat). Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) habitat improved in Wolong Nature Reserve of China after the implementation of the Natural Forest Conservation Program. The improvement was more pronounced in areas monitored by local residents than those monitored by the local government, but only when a higher payment was provided. Our results suggest that the effectiveness of a PES program depends on who receives the payment and on whether the payment provides sufficient incentives. As engagement of local residents has not been incorporated in many conservation strategies elsewhere in China or around the world, our results also suggest that using an incentive-based strategy as a complement to command-and-control, community- and norm-based strategies may help achieve greater conservation effectiveness and provide a potential solution for the park versus people conflict. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Short-term Forecasting Tools for Agricultural Nutrient Management.

PubMed

Easton, Zachary M; Kleinman, Peter J A; Buda, Anthony R; Goering, Dustin; Emberston, Nichole; Reed, Seann; Drohan, Patrick J; Walter, M Todd; Guinan, Pat; Lory, John A; Sommerlot, Andrew R; Sharpley, Andrew

2017-11-01

The advent of real-time, short-term farm management tools is motivated by the need to protect water quality above and beyond the general guidance offered by existing nutrient management plans. Advances in high-performance computing and hydrologic or climate modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of real-time information that can assist landowners and conservation personnel with short-term management planning. This paper reviews short-term decision support tools for agriculture that are under various stages of development and implementation in the United States: (i) Wisconsin's Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) System, (ii) New York's Hydrologically Sensitive Area Prediction Tool, (iii) Virginia's Saturated Area Forecast Model, (iv) Pennsylvania's Fertilizer Forecaster, (v) Washington's Application Risk Management (ARM) System, and (vi) Missouri's Design Storm Notification System. Although these decision support tools differ in their underlying model structure, the resolution at which they are applied, and the hydroclimates to which they are relevant, all provide forecasts (range 24-120 h) of runoff risk or soil moisture saturation derived from National Weather Service Forecast models. Although this review highlights the need for further development of robust and well-supported short-term nutrient management tools, their potential for adoption and ultimate utility requires an understanding of the appropriate context of application, the strategic and operational needs of managers, access to weather forecasts, scales of application (e.g., regional vs. field level), data requirements, and outreach communication structure. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

Conservation biology in Asia: the major policy challenges.

PubMed

McNeely, Jeffrey A; Kapoor-Vijay, Promila; Zhi, Lu; Olsvig-Whittaker, Linda; Sheikh, Kashif M; Smith, Andrew T

2009-08-01

With about half the world's human population and booming economies, Asia faces numerous challenges to its biodiversity. The Asia Section of the Society for Conservation Biology has identified some key policy issues in which significant progress can be made. These include developing new sources of funding for forest conservation; identifying potential impacts of energy alternatives on the conservation of biodiversity; curbing the trade in endangered species of plants and animals; a special focus on the conservation of mountain biodiversity; enhancing relevant research; ensuring that conservation biology contributes to major international conventions and funding mechanisms; using conservation biology to build a better understanding of zoonotic diseases; more effectively addressing human-animal conflicts; enhancing community-based conservation; and using conservation biology to help address the pervasive water-deficit problems in much of Asia. These challenges can be met through improved regional cooperation among the relevant stakeholders.

Human-elephant conflict in western Thailand: Socio-economic drivers and potential mitigation strategies

PubMed Central

Matteson, Kevin

2018-01-01

Understanding human-wildlife conflict is an important first step in the conservation of highly endangered species that can have adverse effects on human communities, such as elephants. To gain insights into variables that shape attitudes toward elephant conservation in Asia, we surveyed 410 households and 46 plantation owners in seven villages around the Salakpra Wildlife Sanctuary in western Thailand, an area of high human-elephant conflict. We sought to evaluate how past experiences with elephants (positive or negative), as well as socio-economic variables (age, income level, gender, and employment type) affect attitudes toward elephant conservation and coexistence in this area. In addition, we quantified deterrence methods currently used and identify potential mitigation strategies supported by community members. In general, less supportive attitudes toward elephant conservation and coexistence were held by individuals older than 35 years of age, those who had previously had experienced negative interactions with elephants, those with lower incomes, and those working in the agricultural sector. Conversely, those who had received benefits from living near elephants (e.g., supplemental income or feelings of pride from hosting volunteers or participating in conservation work) had more supportive views of elephant coexistence. Plantation owners reported using a variety of deterrence methods with varying success, with firecrackers being the most commonly utilized method. Community members identified several potentially beneficial mitigation strategies including forest restorations and patrol teams, adding water sources to wild elephant habitat, and education of local school and community groups. Overall, our results highlight the value of community members receiving benefits from living near elephants and suggest that special incentives may be needed for demographic groups disproportionately affected by elephants (e.g. those at lower income levels, those working in agriculture). A combination of these and other approaches will be required if human-elephant coexistence in western Thailand is to be realized. PMID:29856740

Work-Family Conflict and Employee Well-Being Over Time: The Loss Spiral Effect.

PubMed

Neto, Mariana; Carvalho, Vânia Sofia; Chambel, Maria José; Manuel, Sérgio; Pereira Miguel, José; de Fátima Reis, Maria

2016-05-01

The development of work-family conflict over time was analyzed using Conservation of Resources Theory. The reciprocal effect between work-family conflict and employee well-being was tested with cross-lagged analyses on the basis of three waves. The sample comprised 713 employees of a Portuguese service organization. Structural equation modeling analyses, with sex, age, and parental demand controlled, indicated that the work-family conflict at T1 and T2 decreases the employee psychological well-being at T2 and T3, respectively. Furthermore, employee psychological well-being at T2 had a longitudinal cross-lagged effect on work-family at T3. We concluded that employee psychological well-being at T2 predicted work-family at T3, which was a subsequent outcome of work-family conflict on T1. This paper highlighted the importance of organizations to consider work-family conflict to ensure employees' well-being because they develop reciprocal relationship with a loss spiral effect.

The Elephant Vanishes: impact of human-elephant conflict on people's wellbeing.

PubMed

Jadhav, Sushrut; Barua, Maan

2012-11-01

Human-wildlife conflicts impact upon the wellbeing of marginalised people, worldwide. Although tangible losses from such conflicts are well documented, hidden health consequences remain under-researched. Based on preliminary clinical ethnographic inquiries and sustained fieldwork in Assam, India, this paper documents mental health antecedents and consequences including severe untreated psychiatric morbidity and substance abuse. The case studies presented make visible the hidden mental health dimensions of human-elephant conflict. The paper illustrates how health impacts of conflicts penetrate far deeper than immediate physical threat from elephants, worsens pre-existing mental illness of marginalised people, and leads to newer psychiatric and social pathologies. These conflicts are enacted and perpetuated in institutional spaces of inequality. The authors argue that both wildlife conservation and community mental health disciplines would be enhanced by coordinated intervention. The paper concludes by generating questions that are fundamental for a new interdisciplinary paradigm that bridges ecology and the clinic. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resolving Conflicts between Agriculture and the Natural Environment.

PubMed

Tanentzap, Andrew J; Lamb, Anthony; Walker, Susan; Farmer, Andrew

2015-01-01

Agriculture dominates the planet. Yet it has many environmental costs that are unsustainable, especially as global food demand rises. Here, we evaluate ways in which different parts of the world are succeeding in their attempts to resolve conflict between agriculture and wild nature. We envision that coordinated global action in conserving land most sensitive to agricultural activities and policies that internalise the environmental costs of agriculture are needed to deliver a more sustainable future.

Drought Resilience and Water Conservation - Agency-Wide Actions and Research

EPA Science Inventory

In many areas of the United States, the frequency and duration of drought events are increasing. This pattern is expected to continue and to shift outside of historical trends, making forecasting our water quality and supply more difficult. EPA is conducting research and working ...

Forecast of the World's Electrical Demands until 2025.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Claverie, Maurice J.; Dupas, Alain P.

1979-01-01

Models of global energy demand, a lower-growth-rate model developed at Case Western Reserve University and the H5 model of the Conservation Committee of the World Energy Conference, assess the features of decentralized and centralized electricity generation in the years 2000 and 2025. (BT)

Assessing Variability and Errors in Historical Runoff Forecasting with Physical Models and Alternative Data Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penn, C. A.; Clow, D. W.; Sexstone, G. A.

2017-12-01

Water supply forecasts are an important tool for water resource managers in areas where surface water is relied on for irrigating agricultural lands and for municipal water supplies. Forecast errors, which correspond to inaccurate predictions of total surface water volume, can lead to mis-allocated water and productivity loss, thus costing stakeholders millions of dollars. The objective of this investigation is to provide water resource managers with an improved understanding of factors contributing to forecast error, and to help increase the accuracy of future forecasts. In many watersheds of the western United States, snowmelt contributes 50-75% of annual surface water flow and controls both the timing and volume of peak flow. Water supply forecasts from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Weather Service, and similar cooperators use precipitation and snowpack measurements to provide water resource managers with an estimate of seasonal runoff volume. The accuracy of these forecasts can be limited by available snowpack and meteorological data. In the headwaters of the Rio Grande, NRCS produces January through June monthly Water Supply Outlook Reports. This study evaluates the accuracy of these forecasts since 1990, and examines what factors may contribute to forecast error. The Rio Grande headwaters has experienced recent changes in land cover from bark beetle infestation and a large wildfire, which can affect hydrological processes within the watershed. To investigate trends and possible contributing factors in forecast error, a semi-distributed hydrological model was calibrated and run to simulate daily streamflow for the period 1990-2015. Annual and seasonal watershed and sub-watershed water balance properties were compared with seasonal water supply forecasts. Gridded meteorological datasets were used to assess changes in the timing and volume of spring precipitation events that may contribute to forecast error. Additionally, a spatially-distributed physics-based snow model was used to assess possible effects of land cover change on snowpack properties. Trends in forecasted error are variable while baseline model results show a consistent under-prediction in the recent decade, highlighting possible compounding effects of climate and land cover changes.

Disaggregating residential water demand for improved forecasts and decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodard, G.; Brookshire, D.; Chermak, J.; Krause, K.; Roach, J.; Stewart, S.; Tidwell, V.

2003-04-01

Residential water demand is the product of population and per capita demand. Estimates of per capita demand often are based on econometric models of demand, usually based on time series data of demand aggregated at the water provider level. Various studies have examined the impact of such factors as water pricing, weather, and income, with many other factors and details of water demand remaining unclear. Impacts of water conservation programs often are estimated using simplistic engineering calculations. Partly as a result of this, policy discussions regarding water demand management often focus on water pricing, water conservation, and growth control. Projecting water demand is often a straight-forward, if fairly uncertain process of forecasting population and per capita demand rates. SAHRA researchers are developing improved forecasts of residential water demand by disaggregating demand to the level of individuals, households, and specific water uses. Research results based on high-resolution water meter loggers, household-level surveys, economic experiments and recent census data suggest that changes in wealth, household composition, and individual behavior may affect demand more than changes in population or the stock of landscape plants, water-using appliances and fixtures, generally considered the primary determinants of demand. Aging populations and lower fertility rates are dramatically reducing household size, thereby increasing the number of households and residences for a given population. Recent prosperity and low interest rates have raised home ownership rates to unprecented levels. These two trends are leading to increased per capita outdoor water demand. Conservation programs have succeeded in certain areas, such as promoting drought-tolerant native landscaping, but have failed in other areas, such as increasing irrigation efficiency or curbing swimming pool water usage. Individual behavior often is more important than the household's stock of water-using fixtures, and ranges from hedonism (installing pools and whirlpool tubs) to satisficing (adjusting irrigation timers only twice per year) to acting on deeply-held conservation ethics in ways that not only fail any benefit-cost test, but are discouraged, or even illegal (reuse of gray water and black water). Research findings are being captured in dynamic simulation models that integrate social and natural science to create tools to assist water resource managers in providing sustainable water supplies and improving residential water demand forecasts. These models feature simple, graphical user interfaces and output screens that provide decision makers with visual, easy-to-understand information at the basin level. The models reveal connections between various supply and demand components, and highlight direct impacts and feedback mechanisms associated with various policy options.

From forest to farm: systematic review of cultivar feeding by chimpanzees--management implications for wildlife in anthropogenic landscapes.

PubMed

Hockings, Kimberley J; McLennan, Matthew R

2012-01-01

Crop-raiding is a major source of conflict between people and wildlife globally, impacting local livelihoods and impeding conservation. Conflict mitigation strategies that target problematic wildlife behaviours such as crop-raiding are notoriously difficult to develop for large-bodied, cognitively complex species. Many crop-raiders are generalist feeders. In more ecologically specialised species crop-type selection is not random and evidence-based management requires a good understanding of species' ecology and crop feeding habits. Comprehensive species-wide studies of crop consumption by endangered wildlife are lacking but are important for managing human-wildlife conflict. We conducted a comprehensive literature search of crop feeding records by wild chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes), a ripe-fruit specialist. We assessed quantitatively patterns of crop selection in relation to species-specific feeding behaviour, agricultural exposure, and crop availability. Crop consumption by chimpanzees is widespread in tropical Africa. Chimpanzees were recorded to eat a considerable range of cultivars (51 plant parts from 36 species). Crop part selection reflected a species-typical preference for fruit. Crops widely distributed in chimpanzee range countries were eaten at more sites than sparsely distributed crops. We identified 'high' and 'low' conflict crops according to their attractiveness to chimpanzees, taking account of their importance as cash crops and/or staple foods to people. Most (86%) high conflict crops were fruits, compared to 13% of low conflict crops. Some widely farmed cash or staple crops were seldom or never eaten by chimpanzees. Information about which crops are most frequently consumed and which are ignored has enormous potential for aiding on-the-ground stakeholders (i.e. farmers, wildlife managers, and conservation and agricultural extension practitioners) develop sustainable wildlife management schemes for ecologically specialised and protected species in anthropogenic habitats. However, the economic and subsistence needs of local people, and the crop-raiding behaviour of sympatric wildlife, must be considered when assessing suitability of particular crops for conflict prevention and mitigation.

Political ideology and labor arbitrators' decision making in work-family conflict cases.

PubMed

Biernat, Monica; Malin, Martin H

2008-07-01

Labor arbitrators were asked to render decisions about grievances brought by employees who had been fired because of problems created by work conflicts with family responsibilities. The study examined the effects of experimentally manipulated grievant attributes (gender, type of work-family conflict) as well as arbitrator attributes (gender, political ideology) on decision making. When employees were depicted as having had child care problems, liberal arbitrators tended to favor female over male grievants, and political conservatism predicted more favorable judgments rendered toward male grievants. Overall, the data suggest that child care responsibilities cue different patterns of gender bias among liberal and conservative decision makers.

Value of Adaptive Drought Forecasting and Management for the ACF River Basin in the Southeast U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakakos, A. P.; Kistenmacher, M.

2016-12-01

In recent times, severe droughts in the southeast U.S. occur every 6 to 10 years and last for up to 4 years. During such drought episodes, the ACF River Basin supplies decline by up to 50 % of their normal levels, and water stresses increase rather markedly, exacerbating stakeholder anxiety and conflicts. As part of the ACF Stakeholder planning process, GWRI has developed new tools and carried out comprehensive assessments to provide quantitative answers to several important questions related to drought prediction and management: (i) Can dry and wet climatic periods be reliably anticipated with sufficiently long lead times? What drought indices can support reliable, skillful, and long-lead forecasts? (ii) What management objectives can seasonal climate forecasts benefit? How should benefits/impacts be shared? (iii) What operational adjustments are likely to mitigate stakeholder impacts or increase benefits consistent with stakeholder expectations? Regarding drought prediction, a large number of indices were defined and tested at different basin locations and lag times. These included local/cumulative unimpaired flows (UIFs) at 10 river nodes; Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP); Standard Precipitation Index (SPI); Palmer Drought Severity Index; Palmer Modified Drought Index; Palmer Z-Index; Palmer Hydrologic Drought Severity Index; and Soil Moisture—GWRI watershed model. Our findings show that all ACF sub-basins exhibit good forecast skill throughout the year and with sufficient lead time. Index variables with high explanatory value include: previous UIFs, soil moisture states (generated by the GWRI watershed model), and PDSI. Regarding drought management, assessments with coupled forecast-management schemes demonstrate that the use of adaptive forecast-management procedures improves reservoir operations and meets basin demands more reliably. Such improvements can support better management of lake levels, higher environmental and navigation flows, higher dependable power generation hours, and better management of consumptive uses without adverse impacts on other stakeholder interests. However, realizing these improvements requires (1) usage of adaptive reservoir management procedures (incorporating forecasts), and (2) stakeholder agreement on equitable benefit sharing.

Monthly forecasting of agricultural pests in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirschi, M.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Samietz, J.; Calanca, P.; Weigel, A. P.; Fischer, A. M.; Rotach, M. W.

2012-04-01

Given the repercussions of pests and diseases on agricultural production, detailed forecasting tools have been developed to simulate the degree of infestation depending on actual weather conditions. The life cycle of pests is most successfully predicted if the micro-climate of the immediate environment (habitat) of the causative organisms can be simulated. Sub-seasonal pest forecasts therefore require weather information for the relevant habitats and the appropriate time scale. The pest forecasting system SOPRA (www.sopra.info) currently in operation in Switzerland relies on such detailed weather information, using hourly weather observations up to the day the forecast is issued, but only a climatology for the forecasting period. Here, we aim at improving the skill of SOPRA forecasts by transforming the weekly information provided by ECMWF monthly forecasts (MOFCs) into hourly weather series as required for the prediction of upcoming life phases of the codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. Due to the probabilistic nature of operational monthly forecasts and the limited spatial and temporal resolution, their information needs to be post-processed for use in a pest model. In this study, we developed a statistical downscaling approach for MOFCs that includes the following steps: (i) application of a stochastic weather generator to generate a large pool of daily weather series consistent with the climate at a specific location, (ii) a subsequent re-sampling of weather series from this pool to optimally represent the evolution of the weekly MOFC anomalies, and (iii) a final extension to hourly weather series suitable for the pest forecasting model. Results show a clear improvement in the forecast skill of occurrences of upcoming codling moth life phases when incorporating MOFCs as compared to the operational pest forecasting system. This is true both in terms of root mean squared errors and of the continuous rank probability scores of the probabilistic forecasts vs. the mean absolute errors of the deterministic system. Also, the application of the climate conserving recalibration (CCR, Weigel et al. 2009) technique allows for successful correction of the under-confidence in the forecasted occurrences of codling moth life phases. Reference: Weigel, A. P.; Liniger, M. A. & Appenzeller, C. (2009). Seasonal Ensemble Forecasts: Are Recalibrated Single Models Better than Multimodels? Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1460-1479.

Spatial occupancy models for predicting metapopulation dynamics and viability following reintroduction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chandler, Richard B.; Muths, Erin L.; Sigafus, Brent H.; Schwalbe, Cecil R.; Jarchow, Christopher J.; Hossack, Blake R.

2015-01-01

Synthesis and applications. This work demonstrates how spatio-temporal statistical models based on ecological theory can be applied to forecast the outcomes of conservation actions such as reintroduction. Our spatial occupancy model should be particularly useful when management agencies lack the funds to collect intensive individual-level data.

Forecasting the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors on polar bears

Treesearch

Todd C. Atwood; Bruce G. Marcot; David C. Douglas; Steven C. Amstrup; Karyn D. Rode; George M. Durner; Jeffrey F. Bromaghin

2016-01-01

Effective conservation planning requires understanding and ranking threats to wildlife populations. We developed a Bayesian network model to evaluate the relative influence of environmental and anthropogenic stressors, and their mitigation, on the persistence of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Overall sea ice conditions, affected by rising global...

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keitz, J. F.

1982-01-01

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 1 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 1 compares flight plans based on forecasts with plans based on the verifying analysis from 33 days during the summer and fall of 1979. The comparisons show that: (1) potential fuel savings conservatively estimated to be between 1.2 and 2.5 percent could result from using more timely and accurate weather data in flight planning and route selection; (2) the Suitland forecast generally underestimates wind speeds; and (3) the track selection methodology of many airlines operating on the North Atlantic may not be optimum resulting in their selecting other than the optimum North Atlantic Organized Track about 50 percent of the time.

Forecast Mekong

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turnipseed, D. Phil

2011-01-01

Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

Resolving Conflicts between Agriculture and the Natural Environment

PubMed Central

Tanentzap, Andrew J.; Lamb, Anthony; Walker, Susan; Farmer, Andrew

2015-01-01

Agriculture dominates the planet. Yet it has many environmental costs that are unsustainable, especially as global food demand rises. Here, we evaluate ways in which different parts of the world are succeeding in their attempts to resolve conflict between agriculture and wild nature. We envision that coordinated global action in conserving land most sensitive to agricultural activities and policies that internalise the environmental costs of agriculture are needed to deliver a more sustainable future. PMID:26351851

Key actions towards the sustainable management of European geese.

PubMed

Stroud, David A; Madsen, Jesper; Fox, Anthony D

2017-03-01

Increasing abundance of geese in North America and Europe constitutes a major conservation success, but has caused increasing conflicts with economic, health and safety interests, as well as ecosystem impacts. Potential conflict resolution through a single, 'one size fits all' policy is hindered by differences in species' ecology, behaviour, abundance and population status, and in contrasting political and socio-economic environments across the flyways. Effective goose management requires coordinated application of a suite of tools from the local level to strategic flyway management actions. The European Goose Management Platform, established under the Agreement on the Conservation of African-Eurasian Migratory Waterbirds, aims to harmonise and prioritise management, monitoring and conservation efforts, sharing best practice internationally by facilitating agreed policies, coordinating flyway efforts, and sharing and exchanging experiences and information. This depends crucially upon adequate government financing, the collection of necessary monitoring data (e.g., on distribution, abundance, hunting bags, demography, ecosystem and agricultural damage), the collation and effective use of such data and information, as well as the evaluation of outcomes of existing management measures.

Mobile Phone Use and Human-Wildlife Conflict in Northern Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Ashley L.; Baird, Timothy D.; Sorice, Michael G.

2016-07-01

Throughout the developing world, mobile phones are spreading rapidly into rural areas where subsistence livelihoods, biodiversity conservation, and human-wildlife conflict (HWC) are each common. Despite this trend, little is known about the relationship between mobile phones and HWC in conservation landscapes. This paper examines this relationship within ethnically Maasai communities in northern Tanzania on the border of Tarangire National Park. Mixed qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis are used to (1) describe how Maasai agro-pastoralists use phones to manage human-wildlife interactions; and (2) assess the relationship between phone use and measures of HWC, controlling for other factors. The findings indicate that households use phones to reduce the number and severity of HWC events and that the relationship between phones and HWC varies according to the type of HWC.

Mobile Phone Use and Human-Wildlife Conflict in Northern Tanzania.

PubMed

Lewis, Ashley L; Baird, Timothy D; Sorice, Michael G

2016-07-01

Throughout the developing world, mobile phones are spreading rapidly into rural areas where subsistence livelihoods, biodiversity conservation, and human-wildlife conflict (HWC) are each common. Despite this trend, little is known about the relationship between mobile phones and HWC in conservation landscapes. This paper examines this relationship within ethnically Maasai communities in northern Tanzania on the border of Tarangire National Park. Mixed qualitative and quantitative methods of data collection and analysis are used to (1) describe how Maasai agro-pastoralists use phones to manage human-wildlife interactions; and (2) assess the relationship between phone use and measures of HWC, controlling for other factors. The findings indicate that households use phones to reduce the number and severity of HWC events and that the relationship between phones and HWC varies according to the type of HWC.

Opinions from the Front Lines of Cat Colony Management Conflict

PubMed Central

Peterson, M. Nils; Hartis, Brett; Rodriguez, Shari; Green, Matthew; Lepczyk, Christopher A.

2012-01-01

Outdoor cats represent a global threat to terrestrial vertebrate conservation, but management has been rife with conflict due to differences in views of the problem and appropriate responses to it. To evaluate these differences we conducted a survey of opinions about outdoor cats and their management with two contrasting stakeholder groups, cat colony caretakers (CCCs) and bird conservation professionals (BCPs) across the United States. Group opinions were polarized, for both normative statements (CCCs supported treating feral cats as protected wildlife and using trap neuter and release [TNR] and BCPs supported treating feral cats as pests and using euthanasia) and empirical statements. Opinions also were related to gender, age, and education, with females and older respondents being less likely than their counterparts to support treating feral cats as pests, and females being less likely than males to support euthanasia. Most CCCs held false beliefs about the impacts of feral cats on wildlife and the impacts of TNR (e.g., 9% believed feral cats harmed bird populations, 70% believed TNR eliminates cat colonies, and 18% disagreed with the statement that feral cats filled the role of native predators). Only 6% of CCCs believed feral cats carried diseases. To the extent the beliefs held by CCCs are rooted in lack of knowledge and mistrust, rather than denial of directly observable phenomenon, the conservation community can manage these conflicts more productively by bringing CCCs into the process of defining data collection methods, defining study/management locations, and identifying common goals related to caring for animals. PMID:22970269

The role of macroinvertebrates for conservation of freshwater systems.

PubMed

Nieto, Carolina; Ovando, Ximena M C; Loyola, Rafael; Izquierdo, Andrea; Romero, Fátima; Molineri, Carlos; Rodríguez, José; Rueda Martín, Paola; Fernández, Hugo; Manzo, Verónica; Miranda, María José

2017-07-01

Freshwater ecosystems are the most threatened ecosystems worldwide. Argentinian-protected areas have been established mainly to protect vertebrates and plants in terrestrial ecosystems. In order to create a comprehensive biodiverse conservation plan, it is crucial to integrate both aquatic and terrestrial systems and to include macroinvertebrates. Here, we address this topic by proposing priority areas of conservation including invertebrates, aquatic ecosystems, and their connectivity and land uses. Northwest of Argentina. We modeled the ecological niches of different taxa of macroinvertebrates such as Coleoptera, Ephemeroptera, Hemiptera, Megaloptera, Lepidoptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, Trichoptera, Acari, and Mollusca. Based on these models, we analyzed the contribution of currently established protected areas in the conservation of the aquatic biodiversity and we propose a spatial prioritization taking into account possible conflict regarding different land uses. Our analysis units were the real watersheds, to which were added longitudinal connectivity up and down the rivers. A total of 132 species were modeled in the priority area analyses. The analysis 1 showed that only an insignificant percentage of the macroinvertebrates distribution is within the protected areas in the North West of Argentina. The analyses 2 and 3 recovered similar values of protection for the macroinvertebrate species. The upper part of Bermejo, Salí-Dulce, San Francisco, and the Upper part of Juramento basins were identified as priority areas of conservation. The aquatic ecosystems need special protection and 10% or even as much as 17% of land conservation is insufficient for species of macroinvertebrates. In turn the protected areas need to combine the aquatic and terrestrial systems and need to include macroinvertebrates as a key group to sustain the biodiversity. In many cases, the land uses are in conflict with the conservation of biodiversity; however, it is possible to apply the connectivity of the watersheds and create multiple-use modules.

The Role of Datasets on Scientific Influence within Conflict Research.

PubMed

Van Holt, Tracy; Johnson, Jeffery C; Moates, Shiloh; Carley, Kathleen M

2016-01-01

We inductively tested if a coherent field of inquiry in human conflict research emerged in an analysis of published research involving "conflict" in the Web of Science (WoS) over a 66-year period (1945-2011). We created a citation network that linked the 62,504 WoS records and their cited literature. We performed a critical path analysis (CPA), a specialized social network analysis on this citation network (~1.5 million works), to highlight the main contributions in conflict research and to test if research on conflict has in fact evolved to represent a coherent field of inquiry. Out of this vast dataset, 49 academic works were highlighted by the CPA suggesting a coherent field of inquiry; which means that researchers in the field acknowledge seminal contributions and share a common knowledge base. Other conflict concepts that were also analyzed-such as interpersonal conflict or conflict among pharmaceuticals, for example, did not form their own CP. A single path formed, meaning that there was a cohesive set of ideas that built upon previous research. This is in contrast to a main path analysis of conflict from 1957-1971 where ideas didn't persist in that multiple paths existed and died or emerged reflecting lack of scientific coherence (Carley, Hummon, and Harty, 1993). The critical path consisted of a number of key features: 1) Concepts that built throughout include the notion that resource availability drives conflict, which emerged in the 1960s-1990s and continued on until 2011. More recent intrastate studies that focused on inequalities emerged from interstate studies on the democracy of peace earlier on the path. 2) Recent research on the path focused on forecasting conflict, which depends on well-developed metrics and theories to model. 3) We used keyword analysis to independently show how the CP was topically linked (i.e., through democracy, modeling, resources, and geography). Publically available conflict datasets developed early on helped shape the operationalization of conflict. In fact, 94% of the works on the CP that analyzed data either relied on publically available datasets, or they generated a dataset and made it public. These datasets appear to be important in the development of conflict research, allowing for cross-case comparisons, and comparisons to previous works.

Examination of the costs, benefits and enery conservation aspects of the NASA aircraft fuel conservation technology program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The costs and benefits of the NASA Aircraft Fuel Conservation Technology Program are discussed. Consideration is given to a present worth analysis of the planned program expenditures, an examination of the fuel savings to be obtained by the year 2005 and the worth of this fuel savings relative to the investment required, a comparison of the program funding with that planned by other Federal agencies for energy conservation, an examination of the private industry aeronautical research and technology financial posture for the period FY 76 - FY 85, and an assessment of the potential impacts on air and noise pollution. To aid in this analysis, a computerized fleet mix forecasting model was developed. This model enables the estimation of fuel consumption and present worth of fuel expenditures for selected commerical aircraft fleet mix scenarios.

Season-ahead streamflow forecast informed tax strategies for semi-arid water rights markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delorit, J. D.; Block, P. J.

2016-12-01

In many semi-arid regions multisectoral demands stress available water supplies. The Elqui River valley of north central Chile, which draws on limited capacity reservoirs supplied largely by annually variable snowmelt, is one of these cases. This variability forces water managers to develop demand-based allocation strategies which have typically resulted in water right volume reductions, applied equally per right. Compounding this issue is often deferred or delayed infrastructure investments, which has been linked Chile's Coasian approach to water markets, under which rights holders do not pay direct procurement costs, non-use fees, nor taxes. Here we build upon our previous research using forecasts of likely water rights reductions, informed by season-ahead prediction models of October-January (austral growing season) streamflow, to construct annual, forecast-sensitive, per right tax. We believe this tax, to be borne by right holders, will improve the beneficial use of water resources by stimulating water rights trading and improving system efficiency by generating funds for infrastructure investment, thereby reducing free-ridership and conflict between rights holders. Research outputs will include sectoral per right tax assessments, tax revenue generation, Elqui River valley economic output, and water rights trading activity.

77 FR 16183 - Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison With Forecasted Unit Sales of Five...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-20

... . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Table of Contents I. Background II. Definitions A. Rough Service Lamps B. Vibration... Department did not receive any comments challenging this assumption or the general approach. II. Definitions... the definition of a ``rough service lamp.'' The statutory definition reads as follows: ``The term...

76 FR 68332 - International Fisheries; Pacific Tuna Fisheries; Fishing Restrictions in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-04

...://www.iattc.org/ResolutionsActiveENG.htm . Changes to Tuna Conservation Measures for 2011-2013... fishing vessels that often leads to loss of data critical to weather forecasting, tsunami warnings, search... of Climate Observations at http://osmc.noaa.gov/Monitor/OSMC/OSMC.html , also provides information...

Participatory planning of interventions to mitigate human-wildlife conflicts.

PubMed

Treves, Adrian; Wallace, R B; White, S

2009-12-01

Conservation of wildlife is especially challenging when the targeted species damage crops or livestock, attack humans, or take fish or game. Affected communities may retaliate and destroy wildlife or their habitats. We summarize recommendations from the literature for 13 distinct types of interventions to mitigate these human-wildlife conflicts. We classified eight types as direct (reducing the severity or frequency of encounters with wildlife) and five as indirect (raising human tolerance for encounters with wildlife) interventions. We analyzed general cause-and-effect relationships underlying human-wildlife conflicts to clarify the focal point of intervention for each type. To organize the recommendations on interventions we used three standard criteria for feasibility: cost-effective design, wildlife specificity and selectivity, and sociopolitical acceptability. The literature review and the feasibility criteria were integrated as decision support tools in three multistakeholder workshops. The workshops validated and refined our criteria and helped the participants select interventions. Our approach to planning interventions is systematic, uses standard criteria, and optimizes the participation of experts, policy makers, and affected communities. We argue that conservation action generally will be more effective if the relative merits of alternative interventions are evaluated in an explicit, systematic, and participatory manner.

Accounting for results: how conservation organizations report performance information.

PubMed

Rissman, Adena R; Smail, Robert

2015-04-01

Environmental program performance information is in high demand, but little research suggests why conservation organizations differ in reporting performance information. We compared performance measurement and reporting by four private-land conservation organizations: Partners for Fish and Wildlife in the US Fish and Wildlife Service (national government), Forest Stewardship Council-US (national nonprofit organization), Land and Water Conservation Departments (local government), and land trusts (local nonprofit organization). We asked: (1) How did the pattern of performance reporting relationships vary across organizations? (2) Was political conflict among organizations' principals associated with greater performance information? and (3) Did performance information provide evidence of program effectiveness? Based on our typology of performance information, we found that most organizations reported output measures such as land area or number of contracts, some reported outcome indicators such as adherence to performance standards, but few modeled or measured environmental effects. Local government Land and Water Conservation Departments reported the most types of performance information, while local land trusts reported the fewest. The case studies suggest that governance networks influence the pattern and type of performance reporting, that goal conflict among principles is associated with greater performance information, and that performance information provides unreliable causal evidence of program effectiveness. Challenging simple prescriptions to generate more data as evidence, this analysis suggests (1) complex institutional and political contexts for environmental program performance and (2) the need to supplement performance measures with in-depth evaluations that can provide causal inferences about program effectiveness.

Gendered risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict: implications for participatory conservation.

PubMed

Gore, Meredith L; Kahler, Jessica S

2012-01-01

This research aims to foster discourse about the extent to which gender is important to consider within the context of participatory approaches for biological conservation. Our objectives are to: (1) gender-disaggregate data about stakeholders' risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict (HWC) in a participatory conservation context, and (2) highlight insights from characterizing gendered similarities and differences in the way people think about HWC-related risks. Two communal conservancies in Caprivi, Namibia served as case study sites. We analyzed data from focus groups (n = 2) to create gendered concept maps about risks to wildlife and livelihoods and any associations of those risks with HWC, and semi-structured interviews (n = 76; men = 38, women = 38) to measure explicit risk attitudes associated with HWC. Concept maps indicated some divergent perceptions in how groups characterized risks to wildlife and livelihoods; however, not only were identified risks to wildlife (e.g., pollution, hunting) dissimilar in some instances, descriptions of risks varied as well. Study groups reported similar risk perceptions associated with HWC with the exception of worry associated with HWC effects on local livelihoods. Gendered differences in risk perceptions may signal different priorities or incentives to participate in efforts to resolve HWC-related risks. Thus, although shared goals and interests may seem to be an obvious reason for cooperative wildlife management, it is not always obvious that management goals are shared. Opportunity exists to move beyond thinking about gender as an explanatory variable for understanding how different groups think about participating in conservation activities.

Accounting for Results: How Conservation Organizations Report Performance Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rissman, Adena R.; Smail, Robert

2015-04-01

Environmental program performance information is in high demand, but little research suggests why conservation organizations differ in reporting performance information. We compared performance measurement and reporting by four private-land conservation organizations: Partners for Fish and Wildlife in the US Fish and Wildlife Service (national government), Forest Stewardship Council—US (national nonprofit organization), Land and Water Conservation Departments (local government), and land trusts (local nonprofit organization). We asked: (1) How did the pattern of performance reporting relationships vary across organizations? (2) Was political conflict among organizations' principals associated with greater performance information? and (3) Did performance information provide evidence of program effectiveness? Based on our typology of performance information, we found that most organizations reported output measures such as land area or number of contracts, some reported outcome indicators such as adherence to performance standards, but few modeled or measured environmental effects. Local government Land and Water Conservation Departments reported the most types of performance information, while local land trusts reported the fewest. The case studies suggest that governance networks influence the pattern and type of performance reporting, that goal conflict among principles is associated with greater performance information, and that performance information provides unreliable causal evidence of program effectiveness. Challenging simple prescriptions to generate more data as evidence, this analysis suggests (1) complex institutional and political contexts for environmental program performance and (2) the need to supplement performance measures with in-depth evaluations that can provide causal inferences about program effectiveness.

Identification of human-carnivore conflict hotspots to prioritize mitigation efforts.

PubMed

Broekhuis, Femke; Cushman, Samuel A; Elliot, Nicholas B

2017-12-01

Human-carnivore conflict is a primary driver of carnivore declines worldwide and resolving these conflicts is a conservation priority. However, resources to mitigate conflicts are limited and should be focused on areas of highest priority. We conducted 820 semistructured interviews with community members living within Kenya's Maasai Mara ecosystem. A multiscale analysis was used to determine the influence of husbandry and environmental factors on livestock depredation inside livestock enclosures (bomas). Areas with a high proportion of closed habitat and protected areas had the highest risk of depredation. Depredation was most likely to occur at weak bomas and at households where there were fewer dogs. We used the results to identify potential conflict hotspots by mapping the probability of livestock depredation across the landscape. 21.4% of the landscape was classified as high risk, and within these areas, 53.4% of the households that were interviewed had weak bomas. Synthesis and applications . With limited resources available to mitigate human-carnivore conflicts, it is imperative that areas are identified where livestock is most at risk of depredation. Focusing mitigation measures on high-risk areas may reduce conflict and lead to a decrease in retaliatory killings of predators.

Impacts of the Midwestern Drought Forecasts of 2000.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

2002-10-01

In March of 2000 (and again in April and May) NOAA issued long-range forecasts indicating that an existing Midwestern drought would continue and intensify through the upcoming summer. These forecasts received extensive media coverage and wide public attention. If the drought persisted and intensified during the summer of 2000, significant agricultural and water supply problems would occur. However, in late May, June, and July heavy rains fell throughout most of the Midwest, ending the drought in most areas and revealing that the forecast was incorrect for most of the Midwest. Significant media coverage was devoted to the `failed' forecast, with considerable speculation that major economic hardship had resulted from the forecast. This study assesses the effects of the failed drought forecast on agricultural and water agency actions in the Midwest. Assessment of the agricultural and water management sectors revealed notable commonalities. Most people surveyed were aware of the drought forecasts, and the information sources were diverse. One-third of those surveyed indicated they did nothing as a result of the forecasts. The decisions and actions taken by others as a result of the forecasts provided mixed impacts. The water resource actions such as conserving water, seeking new sources, and convening state drought groups resulted in little cost and were considered to be beneficial. However, in the three areas of agricultural impacts (crop production shifts, crop insurance purchases, and grain market choices), mainly negative outcomes occurred. The 13 March issuance of the forecast was too late for producers to make sizable changes in production practices or to alter insurance coverage greatly, and most forecast-based actions taken in these two areas were considered to be negative but financially minor losses. However, 48% of the 1017 producers sampled altered their normal crop marketing practices, which in 84% of the cases led to sizable losses in revenue. This loss can be extrapolated as $1.1 billion for the entire Midwest if the sample statistics are representative of the region. A common result of the failed drought forecast among its users was a loss of credibility in climate predictions and a reluctance to use them in the future. Credibility is a fragile commodity that is difficult to obtain and is easy to lose.

The Role of Datasets on Scientific Influence within Conflict Research

PubMed Central

Van Holt, Tracy; Johnson, Jeffery C.; Moates, Shiloh; Carley, Kathleen M.

2016-01-01

We inductively tested if a coherent field of inquiry in human conflict research emerged in an analysis of published research involving “conflict” in the Web of Science (WoS) over a 66-year period (1945–2011). We created a citation network that linked the 62,504 WoS records and their cited literature. We performed a critical path analysis (CPA), a specialized social network analysis on this citation network (~1.5 million works), to highlight the main contributions in conflict research and to test if research on conflict has in fact evolved to represent a coherent field of inquiry. Out of this vast dataset, 49 academic works were highlighted by the CPA suggesting a coherent field of inquiry; which means that researchers in the field acknowledge seminal contributions and share a common knowledge base. Other conflict concepts that were also analyzed—such as interpersonal conflict or conflict among pharmaceuticals, for example, did not form their own CP. A single path formed, meaning that there was a cohesive set of ideas that built upon previous research. This is in contrast to a main path analysis of conflict from 1957–1971 where ideas didn’t persist in that multiple paths existed and died or emerged reflecting lack of scientific coherence (Carley, Hummon, and Harty, 1993). The critical path consisted of a number of key features: 1) Concepts that built throughout include the notion that resource availability drives conflict, which emerged in the 1960s-1990s and continued on until 2011. More recent intrastate studies that focused on inequalities emerged from interstate studies on the democracy of peace earlier on the path. 2) Recent research on the path focused on forecasting conflict, which depends on well-developed metrics and theories to model. 3) We used keyword analysis to independently show how the CP was topically linked (i.e., through democracy, modeling, resources, and geography). Publically available conflict datasets developed early on helped shape the operationalization of conflict. In fact, 94% of the works on the CP that analyzed data either relied on publically available datasets, or they generated a dataset and made it public. These datasets appear to be important in the development of conflict research, allowing for cross-case comparisons, and comparisons to previous works. PMID:27124569

Work-Family Conflict, Family-Supportive Supervisor Behaviors (FSSB), and Sleep Outcomes

PubMed Central

Crain, Tori L.; Hammer, Leslie B.; Bodner, Todd; Kossek, Ellen Ernst; Moen, Phyllis; Lilienthal, Richard; Buxton, Orfeu M.

2014-01-01

Although critical to health and well-being, relatively little research has been conducted in the organizational literature on linkages between the work-family interface and sleep. Drawing on Conservation of Resources theory, we use a sample of 623 information technology workers to examine the relationships between work-family conflict, family-supportive supervisor behaviors (FSSB), and sleep quality and quantity. Validated wrist actigraphy methods were used to collect objective sleep quality and quantity data over a one week period of time, and survey methods were used to collect information on self-reported work-family conflict, FSSB, and sleep quality and quantity. Results demonstrated that the combination of predictors (i.e., work-to-family conflict, family-to-work conflict, FSSB) was significantly related to both objective and self-report measures of sleep quantity and quality. Future research should further examine the work-family interface to sleep link and make use of interventions targeting the work-family interface as a means for improving sleep health. PMID:24730425

The psychological well-being of disability caregivers: examining the roles of family strain, family-to-work conflict, and perceived supervisor support.

PubMed

Li, Andrew; Shaffer, Jonathan; Bagger, Jessica

2015-01-01

We draw on the cross-domain model of work-family conflict and conservation of resources theory to examine the relationship between disability caregiving demands and the psychological well-being of employed caregivers. Using a sample of employed disability caregivers from a national survey, we found that the relationship between caregiving demands and family-to-work conflict was stronger when employees experienced high levels of strain from family. Additionally, we found high levels of family to-work conflict were subsequently associated with decreases in life satisfaction and increases in depression, but only when perceived supervisor support was low. Overall, our findings suggest an indirect relationship between caregiving demands and psychological well-being that is mediated by family-to-work conflict and is conditional on family strain and perceived supervisor support. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Scenarios of large mammal loss in Europe for the 21st century.

PubMed

Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero

2015-08-01

Distributions and populations of large mammals are declining globally, leading to an increase in their extinction risk. We forecasted the distribution of extant European large mammals (17 carnivores and 10 ungulates) based on 2 Rio+20 scenarios of socioeconomic development: business as usual and reduced impact through changes in human consumption of natural resources. These scenarios are linked to scenarios of land-use change and climate change through the spatial allocation of land conversion up to 2050. We used a hierarchical framework to forecast the extent and distribution of mammal habitat based on species' habitat preferences (as described in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List database) within a suitable climatic space fitted to the species' current geographic range. We analyzed the geographic and taxonomic variation of habitat loss for large mammals and the potential effect of the reduced impact policy on loss mitigation. Averaging across scenarios, European large mammals were predicted to lose 10% of their habitat by 2050 (25% in the worst-case scenario). Predicted loss was much higher for species in northwestern Europe, where habitat is expected to be lost due to climate and land-use change. Change in human consumption patterns was predicted to substantially improve the conservation of habitat for European large mammals, but not enough to reduce extinction risk if species cannot adapt locally to climate change or disperse. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Use of an action-selection framework for human-carnivore conflict in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.

PubMed

Barlow, Adam C D; Greenwood, Christina J; Ahmad, Ishtiaq U; Smith, James L D

2010-10-01

Human-carnivore conflict is manifested in the death of humans, livestock, and carnivores. The resulting negative local attitudes and retribution killings imperil the future of many endangered carnivores. We tailored existing management tools to create a framework to facilitate the selection of actions to alleviate human-carnivore conflict and applied the framework to the human-tiger conflict in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We identified potential actions that consider previous management efforts, local knowledge, cost-effectiveness, fieldwork experience of authors and project staff, previous research on tiger ecology by the authors, and recommendations from human-carnivore conflict studies in other countries. Our framework includes creation of a profile to improve understanding of the nature of the conflict and its underlying causality. Identified actions include deterrents, education, direct tiger management, and response teams. We ranked actions by their potential to reduce conflict and the monetary cost of their implementation. We ranked tiger-response teams and monitoring problem tigers as the two best actions because both had relatively high impact and cost-effectiveness. We believe this framework could be used under a wide range of human-wildlife conflict situations because it provides a structured approach to selection of mitigating actions. © 2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

Fearing Colleges Slight "Traditional Values," Conservatives Back "Free Enterprise" Chairs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Evangelauf, Jean

1987-01-01

In the last 25 years, 80 to 100 chairs or institutes focusing on the study of capitalism have been established on college campuses, sometimes facing criticism because of potential conflict with the institution's mission. (MSE)

50 CFR 600.305 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., and integrate the diversity of public and private interests. If objectives are in conflict, priorities... and Fisheries FISHERY CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION... management objectives, and to propose management measures that will achieve the objectives. The Secretary...

Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making.

PubMed

Driscoll, Don A; Bode, Michael; Bradstock, Ross A; Keith, David A; Penman, Trent D; Price, Owen F

2016-02-01

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland-urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Global patterns and trends in human-wildlife conflict compensation.

PubMed

Ravenelle, Jeremy; Nyhus, Philip J

2017-12-01

Human-wildlife conflict is a major conservation challenge, and compensation for wildlife damage is a widely used economic tool to mitigate this conflict. The effectiveness of this management tool is widely debated. The relative importance of factors associated with compensation success is unclear, and little is known about global geographic or taxonomic differences in the application of compensation programs. We reviewed research on wildlife-damage compensation to determine geographic and taxonomic gaps, analyze patterns of positive and negative comments related to compensation, and assess the relative magnitude of global compensation payments. We analyzed 288 publications referencing wildlife compensation and identified 138 unique compensation programs. These publications reported US$222 million (adjusted for inflation) spent on compensation in 50 countries since 1980. Europeans published the most articles, and compensation funding was highest in Europe, where depredation by wolves and bears was the most frequently compensated damage. Authors of the publications we reviewed made twice as many negative comments as positive comments about compensation. Three-quarters of the negative comments related to program administration. Conversely, three-quarters of the positive comments related to program outcomes. The 3 most common suggestions to improve compensation programs included requiring claimants to employ damage-prevention practices, such as improving livestock husbandry or fencing of crops to receive compensation (n = 25, 15%); modifying ex post compensation schemes to some form of outcome-based performance payment (n = 21, 12%); and altering programs to make compensation payments more quickly (n = 14, 8%). We suggest that further understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of compensation as a conflict-mitigation tool will require more systematic evaluation of the factors driving these opinions and that differentiating process and outcomes and understanding linkages between them will result in more fruitful analyses and ultimately more effective conflict mitigation. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

The conflicting influences of religiosity on attitude toward torture.

PubMed

Malka, Ariel; Soto, Christopher J

2011-08-01

This research examines the thesis that religiosity has conflicting influences on Americans' attitudes about the use of torture on terrorism suspects: an organic influence favoring opposition to torture and a discursively driven influence favoring support of torture. In each of two national samples, religiosity had both a direct effect toward opposition to torture and an indirect effect-via conservative political alignment-toward support of torture. Multiple-group analyses revealed that the direct effect toward opposition to torture did not vary across Americans with differing levels of exposure to political discourse, whereas the indirect effect toward support of torture via conservative political alignment was much stronger among Americans highly exposed to political discourse. Among such individuals, the indirect effect was so strong that it completely counteracted the competing direct effect. Discussion focuses on the competing influences that a single nonpolitical psychological characteristic may have on a political preference.

Local understandings of conservation in southeastern Mexico and their implications for community-based conservation as an alternative paradigm.

PubMed

Reyes-Garcia, Victoria; Ruiz-Mallen, Isabel; Porter-Bolland, Luciana; Garcia-Frapolli, Eduardo; Ellis, Edward A; Mendez, Maria-Elena; Pritchard, Diana J; Sanchez-Gonzalez, María-Consuelo

2013-08-01

Since the 1990s national and international programs have aimed to legitimize local conservation initiatives that might provide an alternative to the formal systems of state-managed or otherwise externally driven protected areas. We used discourse analysis (130 semistructured interviews with key informants) and descriptive statistics (679 surveys) to compare local perceptions of and experiences with state-driven versus community-driven conservation initiatives. We conducted our research in 6 communities in southeastern Mexico. Formalization of local conservation initiatives did not seem to be based on local knowledge and practices. Although interviewees thought community-based initiatives generated less conflict than state-managed conservation initiatives, the community-based initiatives conformed to the biodiversity conservation paradigm that emphasizes restricted use of and access to resources. This restrictive approach to community-based conservation in Mexico, promoted through state and international conservation organizations, increased the area of protected land and had local support but was not built on locally relevant and multifunctional landscapes, a model that community-based conservation is assumed to advance. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Kyri; Dall'Anese, Emiliano; Summers, Tyler

This paper outlines a data-driven, distributionally robust approach to solve chance-constrained AC optimal power flow problems in distribution networks. Uncertain forecasts for loads and power generated by photovoltaic (PV) systems are considered, with the goal of minimizing PV curtailment while meeting power flow and voltage regulation constraints. A data- driven approach is utilized to develop a distributionally robust conservative convex approximation of the chance-constraints; particularly, the mean and covariance matrix of the forecast errors are updated online, and leveraged to enforce voltage regulation with predetermined probability via Chebyshev-based bounds. By combining an accurate linear approximation of the AC power flowmore » equations with the distributionally robust chance constraint reformulation, the resulting optimization problem becomes convex and computationally tractable.« less

Separate and joint effects of alcohol and caffeine on conflict monitoring and adaptation.

PubMed

Bailey, Kira; Amlung, Michael T; Morris, David H; Price, Mason H; Von Gunten, Curtis; McCarthy, Denis M; Bartholow, Bruce D

2016-04-01

Caffeine is commonly believed to offset the acute effects of alcohol, but some evidence suggests that cognitive processes remain impaired when caffeine and alcohol are coadministered. No previous study has investigated the separate and joint effects of alcohol and caffeine on conflict monitoring and adaptation, processes thought to be critical for self-regulation. This was the purpose of the current study. Healthy, young adult social drinkers recruited from the community completed a flanker task after consuming one of four beverages in a 2 × 2 experimental design: Alcohol + caffeine, alcohol + placebo caffeine, placebo alcohol + caffeine, or placebo alcohol + placebo caffeine. Accuracy, response time, and the amplitude of the N2 component of the event-related potential (ERP), a neural index of conflict monitoring, were examined as a function of whether or not conflict was present (i.e., whether or not flankers were compatible with the target) on both the previous trial and the current trial. Alcohol did not abolish conflict monitoring or adaptation. Caffeine eliminated conflict adaptation in sequential trials but also enhanced neural conflict monitoring. The combined effect of alcohol and caffeine was apparent only in how previous conflict affected the neural conflict monitoring response. Together, the findings suggest that caffeine leads to exaggeration of attentional resource utilization, which could provide short-term benefits but lead to problems conserving resources for when they are most needed.

A quantitative analysis on the effects of critical factors limiting the effectiveness of species conservation in future time.

PubMed

Alagador, Diogo; Cerdeira, Jorge Orestes

2018-03-01

The effectiveness of conservation plans depends on environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic factors. Global change makes conservation decisions even more challenging. Among others, the components of most concern in modern-day conservation assessments are as follows: the magnitude of climate and land-use changes; species dispersal abilities; competition with harmful socioeconomic activities for land use; the number of threatened species to consider; and, relatedly, the available budget to act. Here, we provide a unified framework that quantifies the relative effects of those factors on conservation. We conducted an area-scheduling work plan in order to identify sets of areas along time in which the persistence expectancies of species are optimized. The approach was illustrated using data of potential distribution of ten nonvolant mammal species in Iberia Peninsula from current time up to 2080. Analyses were conducted considering possible setups among the factors that are likely to critically impact conservation success: three climate/land-use scenarios; four species' dispersal kernel curves; six land-use layer types; and two planning designs, in which assessments were made independently for each species, or joining all species in a single plan. We identified areas for an array of investments levels capable to circumvent the spatial conflicts with socioeconomic activities. The effect of each factor on the estimated species persistence scores was assessed using linear mixed models. Our results evidence that conservation success is highly reliant on the resources available to abate land-use conflicts. Nonetheless, under the same investment levels, planning design and climate change were the factors that most shaped species persistence scores. The persistence of five species was especially affected by the sole effect of planning design and consequently, larger conservation investments may retard climatic debts. For three species, the negative effects of a changing climate and of multiple-species planning designs added up, making these species especially at risk. Integrated assessments of the factors most likely to limit species persistence are pivotal to achieve effectiveness.

An optimization based sampling approach for multiple metrics uncertainty analysis using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Rurui; Li, Yu; Lu, Di; Liu, Haixing; Zhou, Huicheng

2016-09-01

This paper investigates the use of an epsilon-dominance non-dominated sorted genetic algorithm II (ɛ-NSGAII) as a sampling approach with an aim to improving sampling efficiency for multiple metrics uncertainty analysis using Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). The effectiveness of ɛ-NSGAII based sampling is demonstrated compared with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) through analyzing sampling efficiency, multiple metrics performance, parameter uncertainty and flood forecasting uncertainty with a case study of flood forecasting uncertainty evaluation based on Xinanjiang model (XAJ) for Qing River reservoir, China. Results obtained demonstrate the following advantages of the ɛ-NSGAII based sampling approach in comparison to LHS: (1) The former performs more effective and efficient than LHS, for example the simulation time required to generate 1000 behavioral parameter sets is shorter by 9 times; (2) The Pareto tradeoffs between metrics are demonstrated clearly with the solutions from ɛ-NSGAII based sampling, also their Pareto optimal values are better than those of LHS, which means better forecasting accuracy of ɛ-NSGAII parameter sets; (3) The parameter posterior distributions from ɛ-NSGAII based sampling are concentrated in the appropriate ranges rather than uniform, which accords with their physical significance, also parameter uncertainties are reduced significantly; (4) The forecasted floods are close to the observations as evaluated by three measures: the normalized total flow outside the uncertainty intervals (FOUI), average relative band-width (RB) and average deviation amplitude (D). The flood forecasting uncertainty is also reduced a lot with ɛ-NSGAII based sampling. This study provides a new sampling approach to improve multiple metrics uncertainty analysis under the framework of GLUE, and could be used to reveal the underlying mechanisms of parameter sets under multiple conflicting metrics in the uncertainty analysis process.

Initialization and assimilation of cloud and rainwater in a regional model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raymond, William H.; Olson, William S.

1990-01-01

The initialization and assimilation of cloud and rainwater quantities in a mesoscale regional model was examined. Forecasts of explicit cloud and rainwater are made using conservation equations. The physical processes include condensation, evaporation, autoconversion, accretion, and the removal of rainwater by fallout. These physical processes, some of which are parameterized, represent source and sink in terms in the conservation equations. The question of how to initialize the explicit liquid water calculations in numerical models and how to retain information about precipitation processes during the 4-D assimilation cycle are important issues that are addressed.

On optimal control problem for conservation law modelling one class of highly re-entrant production systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Apice, Ciro; Kogut, Peter I.

2017-07-01

We discuss the optimal control problem stated as the minimization in the L2-sense of the mismatch between the actual out-flux and a demand forecast for a hyperbolic conservation law that models a highly re-entrant production system. The output of the factory is described as a function of the work in progress and the position of the so-called push-pull point (PPP) where we separate the beginning of the factory employing a push policy from the end of the factory, which uses a pull policy.

Shrugging it off: Does psychological detachment from work mediate the relationship between workplace aggression and work-family conflict?

PubMed

Demsky, Caitlin A; Ellis, Allison M; Fritz, Charlotte

2014-04-01

The current study investigates workplace aggression and psychological detachment from work as possible antecedents of work-family conflict. We draw upon Conservation of Resources theory and the Effort-Recovery Model to argue that employees who fail to psychologically detach from stressful events in the workplace experience a relative lack of resources that is negatively associated with functioning in the nonwork domain. Further, we extend prior research on antecedents of work-family conflict by examining workplace aggression, a prevalent workplace stressor. Utilizing multisource data (i.e., employee, significant other, and coworker reports), our findings indicate that self-reported psychological detachment mediates the relationship between coworker-reported workplace aggression and both self- and significant other-reported work-family conflict. Findings from the current study speak to the value of combining perspectives from research on recovery from work stress and the work-family interface, and point toward implications for research and practice.

Polar bear attacks on humans: Implications of a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilder, James; Vongraven, Dag; Atwood, Todd C.; Hansen, Bob; Jessen, Amalie; Kochnev, Anatoly A.; York, Geoff; Vallender, Rachel; Hedman, Daryll; Gibbons, Melissa

2017-01-01

Understanding causes of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) attacks on humans is critical to ensuring both human safety and polar bear conservation. Although considerable attention has been focused on understanding black (U. americanus) and grizzly (U. arctos) bear conflicts with humans, there have been few attempts to systematically collect, analyze, and interpret available information on human-polar bear conflicts across their range. To help fill this knowledge gap, a database was developed (Polar Bear-Human Information Management System [PBHIMS]) to facilitate the range-wide collection and analysis of human-polar bear conflict data. We populated the PBHIMS with data collected throughout the polar bear range, analyzed polar bear attacks on people, and found that reported attacks have been extremely rare. From 1870–2014, we documented 73 attacks by wild polar bears, distributed among the 5 polar bear Range States (Canada, Greenland, Norway, Russia, and United States), which resulted in 20 human fatalities and 63 human injuries. We found that nutritionally stressed adult male polar bears were the most likely to pose threats to human safety. Attacks by adult females were rare, and most were attributed to defense of cubs. We judged that bears acted as a predator in most attacks, and that nearly all attacks involved ≤2 people. Increased concern for both human and bear safety is warranted in light of predictions of increased numbers of nutritionally stressed bears spending longer amounts of time on land near people because of the loss of their sea ice habitat. Improved conflict investigation is needed to collect accurate and relevant data and communicate accurate bear safety messages and mitigation strategies to the public. With better information, people can take proactive measures in polar bear habitat to ensure their safety and prevent conflicts with polar bears. This work represents an important first step towards improving our understanding of factors influencing human-polar bear conflicts. Continued collection and analysis of range-wide data on interactions and conflicts will help increase human safety and ensure the conservation of polar bears for future generations.

A Beacon Transmission Power Control Algorithm Based on Wireless Channel Load Forecasting in VANETs.

PubMed

Mo, Yuanfu; Yu, Dexin; Song, Jun; Zheng, Kun; Guo, Yajuan

2015-01-01

In a vehicular ad hoc network (VANET), the periodic exchange of single-hop status information broadcasts (beacon frames) produces channel loading, which causes channel congestion and induces information conflict problems. To guarantee fairness in beacon transmissions from each node and maximum network connectivity, adjustment of the beacon transmission power is an effective method for reducing and preventing channel congestion. In this study, the primary factors that influence wireless channel loading are selected to construct the KF-BCLF, which is a channel load forecasting algorithm based on a recursive Kalman filter and employs multiple regression equation. By pre-adjusting the transmission power based on the forecasted channel load, the channel load was kept within a predefined range; therefore, channel congestion was prevented. Based on this method, the CLF-BTPC, which is a transmission power control algorithm, is proposed. To verify KF-BCLF algorithm, a traffic survey method that involved the collection of floating car data along a major traffic road in Changchun City is employed. By comparing this forecast with the measured channel loads, the proposed KF-BCLF algorithm was proven to be effective. In addition, the CLF-BTPC algorithm is verified by simulating a section of eight-lane highway and a signal-controlled urban intersection. The results of the two verification process indicate that this distributed CLF-BTPC algorithm can effectively control channel load, prevent channel congestion, and enhance the stability and robustness of wireless beacon transmission in a vehicular network.

A Beacon Transmission Power Control Algorithm Based on Wireless Channel Load Forecasting in VANETs

PubMed Central

Mo, Yuanfu; Yu, Dexin; Song, Jun; Zheng, Kun; Guo, Yajuan

2015-01-01

In a vehicular ad hoc network (VANET), the periodic exchange of single-hop status information broadcasts (beacon frames) produces channel loading, which causes channel congestion and induces information conflict problems. To guarantee fairness in beacon transmissions from each node and maximum network connectivity, adjustment of the beacon transmission power is an effective method for reducing and preventing channel congestion. In this study, the primary factors that influence wireless channel loading are selected to construct the KF-BCLF, which is a channel load forecasting algorithm based on a recursive Kalman filter and employs multiple regression equation. By pre-adjusting the transmission power based on the forecasted channel load, the channel load was kept within a predefined range; therefore, channel congestion was prevented. Based on this method, the CLF-BTPC, which is a transmission power control algorithm, is proposed. To verify KF-BCLF algorithm, a traffic survey method that involved the collection of floating car data along a major traffic road in Changchun City is employed. By comparing this forecast with the measured channel loads, the proposed KF-BCLF algorithm was proven to be effective. In addition, the CLF-BTPC algorithm is verified by simulating a section of eight-lane highway and a signal-controlled urban intersection. The results of the two verification process indicate that this distributed CLF-BTPC algorithm can effectively control channel load, prevent channel congestion, and enhance the stability and robustness of wireless beacon transmission in a vehicular network. PMID:26571042

Conservation challenges for the Austral and Neotropical America section.

PubMed

Ceballos, Gerardo; Vale, Mariana M; Bonacic, Cristian; Calvo-Alvarado, Julio; List, Rurik; Bynum, Nora; Medellín, Rodrigo A; Simonetti, Javier A; Rodríguez, Jon Paul

2009-08-01

The Austral and Neotropical America (ANA) section of the Society for Conservation Biology includes a vast territory with some of the largest relatively pristine ecosystems in the world. With more than 573 million people, the economic growth of the region still depends strongly on natural resource exploitation and still has high rates of environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. A survey among the ANA section membership, with more than 700 members, including most of the section's prominent ecologists and conservationists, indicates that lack of capacity building for conservation, corruption, and threats such as deforestation and illegal trade of species, are among the most urgent problems that need to be addressed to improve conservation in the region. There are, however, strong universities and ecology groups taking the lead in environmental research and conservation, a most important issue to enhance the ability of the region to solve conservation and development conflicts.

Understanding the lessons and limitations of conservation and development.

PubMed

Oldekop, Johan A; Bebbington, Anthony J; Brockington, Dan; Preziosi, Richard F

2010-04-01

The lack of concrete instances in which conservation and development have been successfully merged has strengthened arguments for strict exclusionist conservation policies. Research has focused more on social cooperation and conflict of different management regimes and less on how these factors actually affect the natural environments they seek to conserve. Consequently, it is still unknown which strategies yield better conservation outcomes? We conducted a meta-analysis of 116 published case studies on common resource management regimes from Africa, south and central America, and southern and Southeast Asia. Using ranked sociodemographic, political, and ecological data, we analyzed the effect of land tenure, population size, social heterogeneity, as well as internally devised resource-management rules and regulations (institutions) on conservation outcome. Although land tenure, population size, and social heterogeneity did not significantly affect conservation outcome, institutions were positively associated with better conservation outcomes. There was also a significant interaction effect between population size and institutions, which implies complex relationships between population size and conservation outcome. Our results suggest that communities managing a common resource can play a significant role in conservation and that institutions lead to management regimes with lower environmental impacts.

Integrating Agriculture and Conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandever, Mark W.

2010-01-01

The USGS produces the needed science-based information to guide management actions and policy decisions that support wildlife habitat and other environmental services compatible with USDA conservation goals and farm operations. The Policy Analysis and Science Assistance Branch of the Fort Collins Science Center (FORT) has conducted research involving a national landowner survey and numerous short- and long-term evaluations regarding vegetation responses to land management practices. This research helps land and resource managers to make informed decisions and resolve resource management conflicts.

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Tack, Jason D.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development. PMID:26262876

Landscapes for energy and wildlife: conservation prioritization for golden eagles across large spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tack, Jason D.; Fedy, Bradley C.

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

Landscapes for Energy and Wildlife: Conservation Prioritization for Golden Eagles across Large Spatial Scales.

PubMed

Tack, Jason D; Fedy, Bradley C

2015-01-01

Proactive conservation planning for species requires the identification of important spatial attributes across ecologically relevant scales in a model-based framework. However, it is often difficult to develop predictive models, as the explanatory data required for model development across regional management scales is rarely available. Golden eagles are a large-ranging predator of conservation concern in the United States that may be negatively affected by wind energy development. Thus, identifying landscapes least likely to pose conflict between eagles and wind development via shared space prior to development will be critical for conserving populations in the face of imposing development. We used publically available data on golden eagle nests to generate predictive models of golden eagle nesting sites in Wyoming, USA, using a suite of environmental and anthropogenic variables. By overlaying predictive models of golden eagle nesting habitat with wind energy resource maps, we highlight areas of potential conflict among eagle nesting habitat and wind development. However, our results suggest that wind potential and the relative probability of golden eagle nesting are not necessarily spatially correlated. Indeed, the majority of our sample frame includes areas with disparate predictions between suitable nesting habitat and potential for developing wind energy resources. Map predictions cannot replace on-the-ground monitoring for potential risk of wind turbines on wildlife populations, though they provide industry and managers a useful framework to first assess potential development.

78 FR 15891 - Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison With Forecasted Unit Sales of Five...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-13

...: [email protected] . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Table of Contents I. Background II. Definitions A... general approach. II. Definitions A. Rough Service Lamps Section 321(a)(1)(B) of EISA 2007 amended section 321(30) of EPCA by adding the definition of a ``rough service lamp.'' The statutory definition reads...

A bayesian cross-validation approach to evaluate genetic baselines and forecast the necessary number of informative single nucleotide polymorphisms

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mixed stock analysis (MSA) is a powerful tool used in the management and conservation of numerous species. Its function is to estimate the sources of contributions in a mixture of populations of a species, as well as to estimate the probabilities that individuals originated at a source. Considerable...

A Neurology of the Conservative-Liberal Dimension of Political Ideology.

PubMed

Mendez, Mario F

2017-01-01

Differences in political ideology are a major source of human disagreement and conflict. There is increasing evidence that neurobiological mechanisms mediate individual differences in political ideology through effects on a conservative-liberal axis. This review summarizes personality, evolutionary and genetic, cognitive, neuroimaging, and neurological studies of conservatism-liberalism and discusses how they might affect political ideology. What emerges from this highly variable literature is evidence for a normal right-sided "conservative-complex" involving structures sensitive to negativity bias, threat, disgust, and avoidance. This conservative-complex may be damaged with brain disease, sometimes leading to a pathological "liberal shift" or a reduced tendency to conservatism in political ideology. Although not deterministic, these findings recommend further research on politics and the brain.

A statistical approach to quasi-extinction forecasting.

PubMed

Holmes, Elizabeth Eli; Sabo, John L; Viscido, Steven Vincent; Fagan, William Fredric

2007-12-01

Forecasting population decline to a certain critical threshold (the quasi-extinction risk) is one of the central objectives of population viability analysis (PVA), and such predictions figure prominently in the decisions of major conservation organizations. In this paper, we argue that accurate forecasting of a population's quasi-extinction risk does not necessarily require knowledge of the underlying biological mechanisms. Because of the stochastic and multiplicative nature of population growth, the ensemble behaviour of population trajectories converges to common statistical forms across a wide variety of stochastic population processes. This paper provides a theoretical basis for this argument. We show that the quasi-extinction surfaces of a variety of complex stochastic population processes (including age-structured, density-dependent and spatially structured populations) can be modelled by a simple stochastic approximation: the stochastic exponential growth process overlaid with Gaussian errors. Using simulated and real data, we show that this model can be estimated with 20-30 years of data and can provide relatively unbiased quasi-extinction risk with confidence intervals considerably smaller than (0,1). This was found to be true even for simulated data derived from some of the noisiest population processes (density-dependent feedback, species interactions and strong age-structure cycling). A key advantage of statistical models is that their parameters and the uncertainty of those parameters can be estimated from time series data using standard statistical methods. In contrast for most species of conservation concern, biologically realistic models must often be specified rather than estimated because of the limited data available for all the various parameters. Biologically realistic models will always have a prominent place in PVA for evaluating specific management options which affect a single segment of a population, a single demographic rate, or different geographic areas. However, for forecasting quasi-extinction risk, statistical models that are based on the convergent statistical properties of population processes offer many advantages over biologically realistic models.

Merging paleobiology with conservation biology to guide the future of terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Barnosky, Anthony D; Hadly, Elizabeth A; Gonzalez, Patrick; Head, Jason; Polly, P David; Lawing, A Michelle; Eronen, Jussi T; Ackerly, David D; Alex, Ken; Biber, Eric; Blois, Jessica; Brashares, Justin; Ceballos, Gerardo; Davis, Edward; Dietl, Gregory P; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Doremus, Holly; Fortelius, Mikael; Greene, Harry W; Hellmann, Jessica; Hickler, Thomas; Jackson, Stephen T; Kemp, Melissa; Koch, Paul L; Kremen, Claire; Lindsey, Emily L; Looy, Cindy; Marshall, Charles R; Mendenhall, Chase; Mulch, Andreas; Mychajliw, Alexis M; Nowak, Carsten; Ramakrishnan, Uma; Schnitzler, Jan; Das Shrestha, Kashish; Solari, Katherine; Stegner, Lynn; Stegner, M Allison; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Wake, Marvalee H; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-02-10

Conservation of species and ecosystems is increasingly difficult because anthropogenic impacts are pervasive and accelerating. Under this rapid global change, maximizing conservation success requires a paradigm shift from maintaining ecosystems in idealized past states toward facilitating their adaptive and functional capacities, even as species ebb and flow individually. Developing effective strategies under this new paradigm will require deeper understanding of the long-term dynamics that govern ecosystem persistence and reconciliation of conflicts among approaches to conserving historical versus novel ecosystems. Integrating emerging information from conservation biology, paleobiology, and the Earth sciences is an important step forward on the path to success. Maintaining nature in all its aspects will also entail immediately addressing the overarching threats of growing human population, overconsumption, pollution, and climate change. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Gendered Risk Perceptions Associated with Human-Wildlife Conflict: Implications for Participatory Conservation

PubMed Central

Gore, Meredith L.; Kahler, Jessica S.

2012-01-01

This research aims to foster discourse about the extent to which gender is important to consider within the context of participatory approaches for biological conservation. Our objectives are to: (1) gender-disaggregate data about stakeholders' risk perceptions associated with human-wildlife conflict (HWC) in a participatory conservation context, and (2) highlight insights from characterizing gendered similarities and differences in the way people think about HWC-related risks. Two communal conservancies in Caprivi, Namibia served as case study sites. We analyzed data from focus groups (n = 2) to create gendered concept maps about risks to wildlife and livelihoods and any associations of those risks with HWC, and semi-structured interviews (n = 76; men = 38, women = 38) to measure explicit risk attitudes associated with HWC. Concept maps indicated some divergent perceptions in how groups characterized risks to wildlife and livelihoods; however, not only were identified risks to wildlife (e.g., pollution, hunting) dissimilar in some instances, descriptions of risks varied as well. Study groups reported similar risk perceptions associated with HWC with the exception of worry associated with HWC effects on local livelihoods. Gendered differences in risk perceptions may signal different priorities or incentives to participate in efforts to resolve HWC-related risks. Thus, although shared goals and interests may seem to be an obvious reason for cooperative wildlife management, it is not always obvious that management goals are shared. Opportunity exists to move beyond thinking about gender as an explanatory variable for understanding how different groups think about participating in conservation activities. PMID:22403722

Dissatisfaction with Veterinary Services Is Associated with Leopard (Panthera pardus) Predation on Domestic Animals

PubMed Central

Khaleghi Hamidi, Amirhossein; Ghoddousi, Arash; Waltert, Matthias

2015-01-01

Human-carnivore conflicts challenge biodiversity conservation and local livelihoods, but the role of diseases of domestic animals in their predation by carnivores is poorly understood. We conducted a human-leopard (Panthera pardus) conflict study throughout all 34 villages around Golestan National Park, Iran in order to find the most important conflict determinants and to use them in predicting the probabilities of conflict and killing of cattle, sheep and goats, and dogs. We found that the more villagers were dissatisfied with veterinary services, the more likely they were to lose livestock and dogs to leopard predation. Dissatisfaction occurred when vaccination crews failed to visit villages at all or, in most cases, arrived too late to prevent diseases from spreading. We suggest that increased morbidity of livestock makes them particularly vulnerable to leopard attacks. Moreover, conflicts and dog killing were higher in villages located closer to the boundaries of the protected area than in distant villages. Therefore, we appeal for improved enforcement and coordination of veterinary services in our study area, and propose several priority research topics such as veterinarian studies, role of wild prey in diseases of domestic animals, and further analysis of potential conflict predictors. PMID:26114626

Dissatisfaction with Veterinary Services Is Associated with Leopard (Panthera pardus) Predation on Domestic Animals.

PubMed

Khorozyan, Igor; Soofi, Mahmood; Khaleghi Hamidi, Amirhossein; Ghoddousi, Arash; Waltert, Matthias

2015-01-01

Human-carnivore conflicts challenge biodiversity conservation and local livelihoods, but the role of diseases of domestic animals in their predation by carnivores is poorly understood. We conducted a human-leopard (Panthera pardus) conflict study throughout all 34 villages around Golestan National Park, Iran in order to find the most important conflict determinants and to use them in predicting the probabilities of conflict and killing of cattle, sheep and goats, and dogs. We found that the more villagers were dissatisfied with veterinary services, the more likely they were to lose livestock and dogs to leopard predation. Dissatisfaction occurred when vaccination crews failed to visit villages at all or, in most cases, arrived too late to prevent diseases from spreading. We suggest that increased morbidity of livestock makes them particularly vulnerable to leopard attacks. Moreover, conflicts and dog killing were higher in villages located closer to the boundaries of the protected area than in distant villages. Therefore, we appeal for improved enforcement and coordination of veterinary services in our study area, and propose several priority research topics such as veterinarian studies, role of wild prey in diseases of domestic animals, and further analysis of potential conflict predictors.

Forest conflict in Thailand: northern minorities in focus.

PubMed

Hares, Minna

2009-03-01

This paper aims at exploring the local background of and solutions to the forest conflict in upland areas inhabited by ethnic minorities, who are called hill tribes, in northern Thailand. A so-called hill tribe problem has been officially identified as a result of the slash-and-burn cultivation and other perceived problems, such as opium poppy cultivation, illegal immigration, and the suspicion of disloyalty to the state. This has created distrust and tension between the groups and authorities. The local conflict has recently been related to the dilemma of conserving the forest from all human interference, while many people live and make their livelihood within and adjacent to the protected areas. Furthermore, as the results imply, strictly protected areas and reforestation have also increased the competition over land and natural resources and, thereby, the likelihood of local conflicts. The scarcity and pollution of water, illegal logging, and poor fire control have contributed to the conflicts between local communities. The conflicts between the local communities and officials have been nourished by political and public discussions. Using definitions and terms with negative connotations and ignoring the heterogeneity between the groups or labeling some groups as malevolent have increased distrust and strengthened existing stereotypical images. Conflict resolution starts with efforts toward better mutual understanding, and changes in structures and attitudes are necessary. Local cooperation, utilization of traditional methods, and local institutions are central to conflict solving.

Forest Conflict in Thailand: Northern Minorities in Focus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hares, Minna

2009-03-01

This paper aims at exploring the local background of and solutions to the forest conflict in upland areas inhabited by ethnic minorities, who are called hill tribes, in northern Thailand. A so-called hill tribe problem has been officially identified as a result of the slash-and-burn cultivation and other perceived problems, such as opium poppy cultivation, illegal immigration, and the suspicion of disloyalty to the state. This has created distrust and tension between the groups and authorities. The local conflict has recently been related to the dilemma of conserving the forest from all human interference, while many people live and make their livelihood within and adjacent to the protected areas. Furthermore, as the results imply, strictly protected areas and reforestation have also increased the competition over land and natural resources and, thereby, the likelihood of local conflicts. The scarcity and pollution of water, illegal logging, and poor fire control have contributed to the conflicts between local communities. The conflicts between the local communities and officials have been nourished by political and public discussions. Using definitions and terms with negative connotations and ignoring the heterogeneity between the groups or labeling some groups as malevolent have increased distrust and strengthened existing stereotypical images. Conflict resolution starts with efforts toward better mutual understanding, and changes in structures and attitudes are necessary. Local cooperation, utilization of traditional methods, and local institutions are central to conflict solving.

Application research on big data in energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Bingdong; Chen, Jing; Wang, Mei; Yao, Jingjing

2017-06-01

In the context of big data age, the energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation is a natural big data industry. The planning, management, decision-making of energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation and other aspects should be supported by the analysis and forecasting of large amounts of data. Now, with the development of information technology, such as intelligent city, sensor road and so on, information collection technology in the direction of the Internet of things gradually become popular. The 3G/4G network transmission technology develop rapidly, and a large number of energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation data is growing into a series with different ways. The government not only should be able to make good use of big data to solve the problem of energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation, but also to explore and use a large amount of data behind the hidden value. Based on the analysis of the basic characteristics and application technology of energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation data, this paper carries out its application research in energy conservation and emission reduction of transportation industry, so as to provide theoretical basis and reference value for low carbon management.

An approach to consider behavioral plasticity as a source of uncertainty when forecasting species' response to climate change

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2015-01-01

The rapid ecological shifts that are occurring due to climate change present major challenges for managers and policymakers and, therefore, are one of the main concerns for environmental modelers and evolutionary biologists. Species distribution models (SDM) are appropriate tools for assessing the relationship between species distribution and environmental conditions, so being customarily used to forecast the biogeographical response of species to climate change. A serious limitation of species distribution models when forecasting the effects of climate change is that they normally assume that species behavior and climatic tolerances will remain constant through time. In this study, we propose a new methodology, based on fuzzy logic, useful for incorporating the potential capacity of species to adapt to new conditions into species distribution models. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to include different behavioral responses of species when predicting the effects of climate change on species distribution. Favorability models offered in this study show two extremes: one considering that the species will not modify its present behavior, and another assuming that the species will take full advantage of the possibilities offered by an increase in environmental favorability. This methodology may mean a more realistic approach to the assessment of the consequences of global change on species' distribution and conservation. Overlooking the potential of species' phenotypical plasticity may under- or overestimate the predicted response of species to changes in environmental drivers and its effects on species distribution. Using this approach, we could reinforce the science behind conservation planning in the current situation of rapid climate change. PMID:26120426

An approach to consider behavioral plasticity as a source of uncertainty when forecasting species' response to climate change.

PubMed

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2015-06-01

The rapid ecological shifts that are occurring due to climate change present major challenges for managers and policymakers and, therefore, are one of the main concerns for environmental modelers and evolutionary biologists. Species distribution models (SDM) are appropriate tools for assessing the relationship between species distribution and environmental conditions, so being customarily used to forecast the biogeographical response of species to climate change. A serious limitation of species distribution models when forecasting the effects of climate change is that they normally assume that species behavior and climatic tolerances will remain constant through time. In this study, we propose a new methodology, based on fuzzy logic, useful for incorporating the potential capacity of species to adapt to new conditions into species distribution models. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to include different behavioral responses of species when predicting the effects of climate change on species distribution. Favorability models offered in this study show two extremes: one considering that the species will not modify its present behavior, and another assuming that the species will take full advantage of the possibilities offered by an increase in environmental favorability. This methodology may mean a more realistic approach to the assessment of the consequences of global change on species' distribution and conservation. Overlooking the potential of species' phenotypical plasticity may under- or overestimate the predicted response of species to changes in environmental drivers and its effects on species distribution. Using this approach, we could reinforce the science behind conservation planning in the current situation of rapid climate change.

Use of frequency analysis and the extended streamflow prediction procedure to estimate evacuation dates for the joint-use pool of Pueblo Reservoir, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuhn, Gerhard; Nickless, R.C.

1994-01-01

Part of the storage space of Pueblo Reservoir consists of a 65,950 acre-foot joint-use pool (JUP) that can be used to provide additional conservation capacity from November 1 to April 14; however, the JUP must be evacuated by April 15 and used only for flood-control capacity until November 1. A study was completed to determine if the JUP possibly could be used for conservation storage for any number of days from April 15 through May 14 under certain hydrologic conditions. The methods of the study were: (1) Frequency analysis of recorded daily mean discharge data for streamflow-gaging stations upstream and downstream from Pueblo Reservoir, and (2) Implementation of the extended streamflow prediction (ESP) procedure for the Arkansas River basin upstream from the reservoir. The frequency analyses enabled estimation of daily discharges at selected exceedance probabilities (EP's), including the 0.01 EP that was used in design of the flood- storage capacity of Pueblo Reservoir. The ESP procedure enabled probabilistic forecasts of inflow volume to the reservoir for April 15 through May 14. Daily discharges derived from the frequency analyses were routed through Pueblo Reservoir to estimate evacuation dates of the JUP for different reservoir inflow volumes; the estimates indicated a relation between the inflow volume and the JUP evacuation date. To apply the study results, only a ESP forecast of the April 15-May 14 reservoir inflow volume is needed. Study results indicate the JUP possibly could be used as late as May 5 depending on the forecast inflow volume.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall'Anese, Emiliano; Baker, Kyri; Summers, Tyler

The paper focuses on distribution systems featuring renewable energy sources and energy storage devices, and develops an optimal power flow (OPF) approach to optimize the system operation in spite of forecasting errors. The proposed method builds on a chance-constrained multi-period AC OPF formulation, where probabilistic constraints are utilized to enforce voltage regulation with a prescribed probability. To enable a computationally affordable solution approach, a convex reformulation of the OPF task is obtained by resorting to i) pertinent linear approximations of the power flow equations, and ii) convex approximations of the chance constraints. Particularly, the approximate chance constraints provide conservative boundsmore » that hold for arbitrary distributions of the forecasting errors. An adaptive optimization strategy is then obtained by embedding the proposed OPF task into a model predictive control framework.« less

Climate, weather, space weather: model development in an operational context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folini, Doris

2018-05-01

Aspects of operational modeling for climate, weather, and space weather forecasts are contrasted, with a particular focus on the somewhat conflicting demands of "operational stability" versus "dynamic development" of the involved models. Some common key elements are identified, indicating potential for fruitful exchange across communities. Operational model development is compelling, driven by factors that broadly fall into four categories: model skill, basic physics, advances in computer architecture, and new aspects to be covered, from costumer needs over physics to observational data. Evaluation of model skill as part of the operational chain goes beyond an automated skill score. Permanent interaction between "pure research" and "operational forecast" people is beneficial to both sides. This includes joint model development projects, although ultimate responsibility for the operational code remains with the forecast provider. The pace of model development reflects operational lead times. The points are illustrated with selected examples, many of which reflect the author's background and personal contacts, notably with the Swiss Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. In view of current and future challenges, large collaborations covering a range of expertise are a must - within and across climate, weather, and space weather. To profit from and cope with the rapid progress of computer architectures, supercompute centers must form part of the team.

Group-focused morality is associated with limited conflict detection and resolution capacity: Neuroanatomical evidence.

PubMed

Nash, Kyle; Baumgartner, Thomas; Knoch, Daria

2017-02-01

Group-focused moral foundations (GMFs) - moral values that help protect the group's welfare - sharply divide conservatives from liberals and religiously devout from non-believers. However, there is little evidence about what drives this divide. Moral foundations theory and the model of motivated social cognition both associate group-focused moral foundations with differences in conflict detection and resolution capacity, but in opposing directions. Individual differences in conflict detection and resolution implicate specific neuroanatomical differences. Examining neuroanatomy thus affords an objective and non-biased opportunity to contrast these influential theories. Here, we report that increased adherence to group-focused moral foundations was strongly associated (whole-brain corrected) with reduced gray matter volume in key regions of the conflict detection and resolution system (anterior cingulate cortex and lateral prefrontal cortex). Because reduced gray matter is reliably associated with reduced neural and cognitive capacity, these findings support the idea outlined in the model of motivated social cognition that belief in group-focused moral values is associated with reduced conflict detection and resolution capacity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bird Use of Grassland Habitat Patches at a Military Airfield

EPA Science Inventory

In light of reported declines in grassland bird populations in North America, information about their use of airfield habitats can help inform management decisions in the context of conflicting objectives of minimizing wildlife-aircraft collisions and helping to conserve grasslan...

AgRISTARS: Agriculture and resources inventory surveys through aerospace remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The rationale, objectives, participants, and approach of the AgRISTARS program are described. Progress is reported in activities related to early warning and crop condition assessment; inventory technology development (formerly foreign commodity production forecasting); yield model development; supporting research; soil moisture; renewable resources inventory; domestic crops and land cover; and conservation and pollution. Emphasis is on technological highlights.

Preservation of physical properties with Ensemble-type Kalman Filter Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janjic, T.

2017-12-01

We show the behavior of the localized Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with respect to preservation of positivity, conservation of mass, energy and enstrophy in toy models that conserve these properties. In order to preserve physical properties in the analysis as well as to deal with the non-Gaussianity in an EnKF framework, Janjic et al. 2014 proposed the use of physically based constraints in the analysis step to constrain the solution. In particular, constraints were used to ensure that the ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. In the study, mass and positivity were both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate nonnegativity constraints. Simple numerical experiments indicated that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that were more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. Moreover, in experiments designed to mimic the most important characteristics of convective motion, it is shown that the mass conservation- and positivity-constrained rain significantly suppresses noise seen in localized EnKF results. This is highly desirable in order to avoid spurious storms from appearing in the forecast starting from this initial condition (Lange and Craig 2014). In addition, the root mean square error is reduced for all fields and total mass of the rain is correctly simulated. Similarly, the enstrophy, divergence, as well as energy spectra can as well be strongly affected by localization radius, thinning interval, and inflation and depend on the variable that is observed (Zeng and Janjic, 2016). We constructed the ensemble data assimilation algorithm that conserves mass, total energy and enstrophy (Zeng et al., 2017). With 2D shallow water model experiments, it is found that the conservation of enstrophy within the data assimilation effectively avoids the spurious energy cascade of rotational part and thereby successfully suppresses the noise generated by the data assimilation algorithm. The 14-day deterministic and ensemble free forecast, starting from the initial condition enforced by both total energy and enstrophy constraints, produces the best prediction.

Wildlife resource utilisation at Moremi Game Reserve and Khwai community area in the Okavango Delta, Botswana.

PubMed

Mbaiwa, Joseph E

2005-10-01

This paper uses the concept of sustainable development to examine the utilisation of wildlife resources at Moremi Game Reserve (MGR) and Khwai community area (NG 18/19) in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Using both secondary and primary data sources, results show that the establishment of MGR in 1963 led to the displacement of Khwai residents from their land; affected Basarwa's hunting and gathering economy; marked the beginning of resource conflicts between Khwai residents and wildlife managers; and, led to the development of negative attitudes of Khwai residents towards wildlife conservation. Since the late 1980s, a predominantly foreign owned tourism industry developed in and around MGR, however, Khwai residents derive insignificant benefits from it and hence resource conflicts increased. In an attempt to address problems of resource conflicts and promote sustainable wildlife utilisation, the Botswana Government adopted the Community-Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) programme, which started operating at Khwai village in 2000. The CBNRM programme promotes local participation in natural resource management and rural development through tourism. It is beginning to have benefits to Khwai residents such as income generation, employment opportunities and local participation in wildlife management. These benefits from CBNRM are thus having an impact in the development of positive attitudes of Khwai residents towards wildlife conservation and tourism development. This paper argues that if extended to MGR, CBNRM has the potential of minimising wildlife conflicts between Khwai residents and the wildlife-tourism sectors. This approach may in the process promote the sustainable wildlife use in and around MGR.

Living with wildlife and mitigating conflicts around three Indian protected areas.

PubMed

Karanth, Krithi K; Naughton-Treves, Lisa; Defries, Ruth; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2013-12-01

Crop and livestock losses to wildlife are a concern for people neighboring many protected areas (PAs) and can generate opposition to conservation. Examining patterns of conflict and associated tolerance is important to devise policies to reduce conflict impacts on people and wildlife. We surveyed 398 households from 178 villages within 10 km of Ranthambore, Kanha, and Nagarahole parks in India. We compared different attitudes toward wildlife, and presented hypothetical response scenarios, including killing the problem animal(s). Eighty percent of households reported crop losses to wildlife and 13 % livestock losses. Higher crop loss was associated with more cropping months per year, greater crop variety, and more harvest seasons per year but did not vary with proximity to the PA, suggesting that PAs are not necessarily "sources" for crop raiders. By contrast, complaints of "depredating carnivores" were associated with people-grazing animals and collecting resources from PAs. Many households (83 %) engaged in mitigation efforts. We found that only fencing and guard animals reduce crop losses, and no efforts to lower livestock losses. Contrary to our expectations, carnivores were not viewed with more hostility than crop-raiding wildlife. Households reported greater inclination to kill herbivores destroying crops or carnivores harming people, but not carnivores preying on livestock.Our model estimated probability of [corrected] crop loss was 82 % across surveyed households (highest in Kanha),while the livestock loss experienced was 27 % (highest in Ranthambore). Our comparative study provides insights into factors associated with conflict loss and tolerance, and aids in improving ongoing conservation and compensation efforts.

Patterns of Livestock Predation by Carnivores: Human-Wildlife Conflict in Northwest Yunnan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xueyou; Buzzard, Paul; Chen, Yongchun; Jiang, Xuelong

2013-12-01

Alleviating human-carnivore conflict is central to large carnivore conservation and is often of economic importance, where people coexist with carnivores. In this article, we report on the patterns of predation and economic losses from wild carnivores preying on livestock in three villages of northern Baima Xueshan Nature Reserve, northwest Yunnan during a 2-year period between January 2010 and December 2011. We analyzed claims from 149 households that 258 head of livestock were predated. Wolves ( Canis lupus) were responsible for 79.1 % of livestock predation; Asiatic black bears ( Selenarctos thibetanus) and dholes ( Cuon alpinus) were the other predators responsible. Predation frequency varied between livestock species. The majority of livestock killed were yak-cattle hybrids or dzo (40.3 %). Wolves killed fewer cattle than expected, and more donkeys and horses than expected. Wolves and bears killed more adult female and fewer adult male livestock than expected. Intensified predation in wet season coincided with livestock being left to graze unattended in alpine meadows far away from villages. On average, carnivore attacks claimed 2.1 % of range stock annually. This predation represented an economic loss of 17 % (SD = 14 %) of the annual household income. Despite this loss and a perceived increase in carnivore conflict, a majority of the herders (66 %) still supported the reserve. This support is primarily due to the benefits from the collection of nontimber resources such as mushrooms and medicinal plants. Our study also suggested that improvement of husbandry techniques and facilities will reduce conflicts and contribute to improved conservation of these threatened predators.

Patterns of livestock predation by carnivores: human-wildlife conflict in northwest Yunnan, China.

PubMed

Li, Xueyou; Buzzard, Paul; Chen, Yongchun; Jiang, Xuelong

2013-12-01

Alleviating human-carnivore conflict is central to large carnivore conservation and is often of economic importance, where people coexist with carnivores. In this article, we report on the patterns of predation and economic losses from wild carnivores preying on livestock in three villages of northern Baima Xueshan Nature Reserve, northwest Yunnan during a 2-year period between January 2010 and December 2011. We analyzed claims from 149 households that 258 head of livestock were predated. Wolves (Canis lupus) were responsible for 79.1 % of livestock predation; Asiatic black bears (Selenarctos thibetanus) and dholes (Cuon alpinus) were the other predators responsible. Predation frequency varied between livestock species. The majority of livestock killed were yak-cattle hybrids or dzo (40.3 %). Wolves killed fewer cattle than expected, and more donkeys and horses than expected. Wolves and bears killed more adult female and fewer adult male livestock than expected. Intensified predation in wet season coincided with livestock being left to graze unattended in alpine meadows far away from villages. On average, carnivore attacks claimed 2.1 % of range stock annually. This predation represented an economic loss of 17 % (SD = 14 %) of the annual household income. Despite this loss and a perceived increase in carnivore conflict, a majority of the herders (66 %) still supported the reserve. This support is primarily due to the benefits from the collection of nontimber resources such as mushrooms and medicinal plants. Our study also suggested that improvement of husbandry techniques and facilities will reduce conflicts and contribute to improved conservation of these threatened predators.

Predicting Near-surface Winds with WindNinja for Wind Energy Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagenbrenner, N. S.; Forthofer, J.; Shannon, K.; Butler, B.

2016-12-01

WindNinja is a high-resolution diagnostic wind model widely used by operational wildland fire managers to predict how near-surface winds may influence fire behavior. Many of the features which have made WindNinja successful for wildland fire are also important for wind energy applications. Some of these features include flexible runtime options which allow the user to initialize the model with coarser scale weather model forecasts, sparse weather station observations, or a simple domain-average wind for what-if scenarios; built-in data fetchers for required model inputs, including gridded terrain and vegetation data and operational weather model forecasts; relatively fast runtimes on simple hardware; an extremely user-friendly interface; and a number of output format options, including KMZ files for viewing in Google Earth and GeoPDFs which can be viewed in a GIS. The recent addition of a conservation of mass and momentum solver based on OpenFOAM libraries further increases the utility of WindNinja to modelers in the wind energy sector interested not just in mean wind predictions, but also in turbulence metrics. Here we provide an evaluation of WindNinja forecasts based on (1) operational weather model forecasts and (2) weather station observations provided by the MesoWest API. We also compare the high-resolution WindNinja forecasts to the coarser operational weather model forecasts. For this work we will use the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model and the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. Forecasts will be evaluated with data collected in the Birch Creek valley of eastern Idaho, USA between June-October 2013. Near-surface wind, turbulence data, and vertical wind and temperature profiles were collected at very high spatial resolution during this field campaign specifically for use in evaluating high-resolution wind models like WindNinja. This work demonstrates the ability of WindNinja to generate very high-resolution wind forecasts for wind energy applications and evaluates the forecasts produced by two different initialization methods with data collected in a broad valley surrounded by complex terrain.

The Public Health Implications of Resource Wars

PubMed Central

Klare, Michael T.; Sidel, Victor W.

2011-01-01

Competition for resources between or within nations is likely to become an increasingly common cause of armed conflict. Competition for petroleum is especially likely to trigger armed conflict because petroleum is a highly valuable resource whose supply is destined to contract. Wars fought over petroleum and other resources can create public health concerns by causing morbidity and mortality, damaging societal infrastructure, diverting resources, uprooting people, and violating human rights. Public health workers and the organizations with which they are affiliated can help prevent resource wars and minimize their consequences by (1) promoting renewable energy and conservation, (2) documenting the impact of past and potential future resource wars, (3) protecting the human rights of affected noncombatant civilian populations during armed conflict, and (4) developing and advocating for policies that promote peaceful dispute resolution. PMID:21778501

The seasonal timing of warming that controls onset of the growing season.

PubMed

Clark, James S; Melillo, Jerry; Mohan, Jacqueline; Salk, Carl

2014-04-01

Forecasting how global warming will affect onset of the growing season is essential for predicting terrestrial productivity, but suffers from conflicting evidence. We show that accurate estimates require ways to connect discrete observations of changing tree status (e.g., pre- vs. post budbreak) with continuous responses to fluctuating temperatures. By coherently synthesizing discrete observations with continuous responses to temperature variation, we accurately quantify how increasing temperature variation accelerates onset of growth. Application to warming experiments at two latitudes demonstrates that maximum responses to warming are concentrated in late winter, weeks ahead of the main budbreak period. Given that warming will not occur uniformly over the year, knowledge of when temperature variation has the most impact can guide prediction. Responses are large and heterogeneous, yet predictable. The approach has immediate application to forecasting effects of warming on growing season length, requiring only information that is readily available from weather stations and generated in climate models. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Short-term Operation of Multi-purpose Reservoir using Model Predictive Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, Gokcen; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Sensoy, Aynur; Arda Sorman, Ali

2017-04-01

Operation of water structures especially with conflicting water supply and flood mitigation objectives is under more stress attributed to growing water demand and changing hydro-climatic conditions. Model Predictive Control (MPC) based optimal control solutions has been successfully applied to different water resources applications. In this study, Feedback Control (FBC) and MPC get combined and an improved joint optimization-simulation operating scheme is proposed. Water supply and flood control objectives are fulfilled by incorporating the long term water supply objectives into a time-dependent variable guide curve policy whereas the extreme floods are attenuated by means of short-term optimization based on MPC. A final experiment is carried out to assess the lead time performance and reliability of forecasts in a hindcasting experiment with imperfect, perturbed forecasts. The framework is tested in Yuvacık Dam reservoir where the main water supply reservoir of Kocaeli City in the northwestern part of Turkey (the Marmara region) and it requires a challenging gate operation due to restricted downstream flow conditions.

Conservation of wading birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kushlan, J.A.

1996-01-01

The conservation and management of wading birds has received considerable attention over the past twenty years, through research, population monitoring, habitat protection, and through activities of specialist groups devoted to all three groups, the herons, ibises and allies, and flamingos. While populations are best known in North America, greatest advances in knowledge may have come in Australasia. The status of most species and many populations is now sufficiently known to allow assessment of risk. Conservation and management techniques allow creation of global and regional action plans for conservation of many species. Global action plans are being developed, but few regional plans have been undertaken. Management of nesting sites is now particularly well appreciated. Although known in broad stroke, much remains to be learned about managing feeding habitat. Problems related to disturbance, conflict with humans, habitat loss, contaminants and other environmental stresses remain for some species and many populations. New challenges lie in creating conservation action that account for genetic stocks.

Natural landscape features, human-related attractants, and conflict hotspots: A spatial analysis of human-grizzly bear conflicts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, S.M.; Madel, M.J.; Mattson, D.J.; Graham, J.M.; Burchfield, J.A.; Belsky, J.M.

2005-01-01

There is a long history of conflict in the western United States between humans and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) involving agricultural attractants. However, little is known about the spatial dimensions of this conflict and the relative importance of different attractants. This study was undertaken to better understand the spatial and functional components of conflict between humans and grizzly bears on privately owned agricultural lands in Montana. Our investigations focused on spatial associations of rivers and creeks, livestock pastures, boneyards (livestock carcass dump sites), beehives, and grizzly bear habitat with reported human-grizzly bear conflicts during 1986-2001. We based our analysis on a survey of 61 of 64 livestock producers in our study in the Rocky Mountain East Front, Montana. With the assistance of livestock and honey producers, we mapped the locations of cattle and sheep pastures, boneyards, and beehives. We used density surface mapping to identify seasonal clusters of conflicts that we term conflict hotspots. Hotspots accounted for 75% of all conflicts and encompassed approximately 8% of the study area. We also differentiated chronic (4 or more years of conflicts) from non-chronic hotspots (fewer than 4 years of conflict). The 10 chronic hotpots accounted for 58% of all conflicts. Based on Monte Carlo simulations, we found that conflict locations were most strongly associated with rivers and creeks followed by sheep lambing areas and fall sheep pastures. Conflicts also were associated with cattle calving areas, spring cow-calf pastures, summer and fall cattle pastures, and boneyards. The Monte Carlo simulations indicated associations between conflict locations and unprotected beehives at specific analysis scales. Protected (fenced) beehives were less likely to experience conflicts than unprotected beehives. Conflicts occurred at a greater rate in riparian and wetland vegetation than would be expected. The majority of conflicts occurred in a small portion of the study area, where concentrations of attractants existed that overlapped with bear habitat. These hotspots should be the target of management and conservation efforts that focus on removing or protecting attractants using non-lethal techniques.

Science implementation of Forecast Mekong for food and environmental security

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turnipseed, D. Phil

2012-01-01

Forecast Mekong is a significant international thrust under the Delta Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and was launched in 2009 by the U.S. Department of State and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam under U.S. Department of State Secretary Hillary R. Clinton's Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. Since 2009, the USGS has worked closely with the U.S. Department of State; personnel from Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam; nongovernmental organizations; and academia to collect and use research and data from the Lower Mekong River Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decisionmakers in future planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the Lower Mekong River Basin. In 2012 Forecast Mekong is highlighting the increasing cooperation between the United States and Lower Mekong River Basin countries in the areas of food and environmental security. Under the DRAGON, Forecast Mekong continues work in interactive data integration, modeling, and visualization system by initiating three-dimensional bathymetry and river flow data along with a pilot study of fish distribution, population, and migratory patterns in the Lower Mekong River Basin. When fully developed by the USGS, in partnership with local governments and universities throughout the Mekong River region, Forecast Mekong will provide valuable planning tools to visualize the consequences of climate change and river management.

Winter wheat production forecast in United States of America using AVHRR historical data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claverie, M.; Franch, B.; Vermote, E.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.

2015-12-01

Wheat is one of the key cereals crop grown worldwide. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production using combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. Recently, Franch et al. (2015) included Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts between a month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (i.e. 1-2.5 months prior to harvest), while conserving the accuracy of the original model. In this study, we apply these methods to historical data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). We apply both the original and the modified model to United States of America from 1990 to 2014 and inter-compare the AVHRR results to MODIS from 2000 to 2014.

Ecosystem-based analysis of a marine protected area where fisheries and protected species coexist.

PubMed

Espinoza-Tenorio, Alejandro; Montaño-Moctezuma, Gabriela; Espejel, Ileana

2010-04-01

The Gulf of California Biosphere Reserve (UGC&CRDBR) is a Marine Protected Area that was established in 1993 with the aim of preserving biodiversity and remediating environmental impacts. Because remaining vigilant is hard and because regulatory measures are difficult to enforce, harvesting has been allowed to diminish poaching. Useful management strategies have not been implemented, however, and conflicts remain between conservation legislation and the fisheries. We developed a transdisciplinary methodological scheme (pressure-state-response, loop analysis, and Geographic Information System) that includes both protected species and fisheries modeled together in a spatially represented marine ecosystem. We analyzed the response of this marine ecosystem supposing that conservation strategies were successful and that the abundance of protected species had increased. The final aim of this study was to identify ecosystem-level management alternatives capable of diminishing the conflict between conservation measures and fisheries. This methodological integration aimed to understand the functioning of the UGC&CRDBR community as well as to identify implications of conservation strategies such as the recovery of protected species. Our results suggest research hypotheses related to key species that should be protected within the ecosystem, and they point out the importance of considering spatial management strategies. Counterintuitive findings underline the importance of understanding how the community responds to disturbances and the effect of indirect pathways on the abundance of ecosystem constituents. Insights from this research are valuable in defining policies in marine reserves where fisheries and protected species coexist.

Ecosystem-Based Analysis of a Marine Protected Area Where Fisheries and Protected Species Coexist

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinoza-Tenorio, Alejandro; Montaño-Moctezuma, Gabriela; Espejel, Ileana

2010-04-01

The Gulf of California Biosphere Reserve (UGC&CRDBR) is a Marine Protected Area that was established in 1993 with the aim of preserving biodiversity and remediating environmental impacts. Because remaining vigilant is hard and because regulatory measures are difficult to enforce, harvesting has been allowed to diminish poaching. Useful management strategies have not been implemented, however, and conflicts remain between conservation legislation and the fisheries. We developed a transdisciplinary methodological scheme (pressure-state-response, loop analysis, and Geographic Information System) that includes both protected species and fisheries modeled together in a spatially represented marine ecosystem. We analyzed the response of this marine ecosystem supposing that conservation strategies were successful and that the abundance of protected species had increased. The final aim of this study was to identify ecosystem-level management alternatives capable of diminishing the conflict between conservation measures and fisheries. This methodological integration aimed to understand the functioning of the UGC&CRDBR community as well as to identify implications of conservation strategies such as the recovery of protected species. Our results suggest research hypotheses related to key species that should be protected within the ecosystem, and they point out the importance of considering spatial management strategies. Counterintuitive findings underline the importance of understanding how the community responds to disturbances and the effect of indirect pathways on the abundance of ecosystem constituents. Insights from this research are valuable in defining policies in marine reserves where fisheries and protected species coexist.

Understanding the diversity of public interests in wildlife conservation.

PubMed

Teel, Tara L; Manfredo, Michael J

2010-02-01

North American state wildlife agencies are increasingly faced with the challenge of effectively representing a diverse public. With increasing social conflict over wildlife issues, the future of wildlife conservation hinges on preparedness of the profession to respond to this challenge. In the interest of finding ways to improve response, 19 agencies in the western U.S. joined forces to initiate an investigation that would provide a better understanding of the diversity of wildlife-related interests in the region. Specific objectives, accomplished through use of a mail survey administered in 2004, were to categorize people on the basis of their value orientations toward wildlife and explore how different groups were distributed across states and to examine differences on sociodemographic characteristics and attitudes toward wildlife-related topics among groups. The focus was on two orientations: domination (view of wildlife that prioritizes human well-being over wildlife and treats wildlife in utilitarian terms); and mutualism (view of wildlife as capable of relationships of trust with humans and defined by a desire for companionship with wildlife). Four types of people were identified on the basis of these orientations. Types differed in their geographic distribution and wildlife-related attitudes and behaviors, revealing how value orientations can form the foundation for conflict on wildlife issues. Our characterizations of stakeholder groups offer a framework that can be applied over time and across geographic scales to improve conservation planning efforts and inform broader thinking about the social aspects of wildlife conservation.

Community Resource Uses and Ethiopian Wolf Conservation in Mount Abune Yosef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eshete, Girma; Tesfay, Girmay; Bauer, Hans; Ashenafi, Zelealem Tefera; de Iongh, Hans; Marino, Jorgelina

2015-09-01

People who perceive economic benefits and enjoy unrestricted access to natural resources tend to support ecosystem conservation efforts. Our study explores whether this remains true in remnant patches of Afroalpine ecosystem in North Ethiopia, where communal land provides valuable natural resources for the local communities and also sustain small populations of the endangered Ethiopian wolf ( Canis simensis). Questionnaires were designed to assess ecological and socio-economic characteristics of the livelihoods of the Amhara people living in Mount Abune Yosef and their attitudes toward Afroalpine and Ethiopian wolf conservation. Of the 120 households interviewed, selected randomly from across eight villages, 80 % benefited from natural resources by grazing their livestock and harvesting firewood and grasses. The majority (90 %) also suffered from livestock predation by Ethiopian wolves and common jackals (Canis aureus) and crop raiding by geladas ( Theropithecus gelada), birds, and rodents, yet more than half reported a positive attitudes toward Ethiopian wolves (66 %). People with positive attitudes tended to live close to the communal land, to own more livestock, and to be unaffected by conflict. Many also recognized the need to protect the Afroalpine habitats of Abune Yosef (71 %), and this attitude predominated among the literate, households that owned land, had smaller herds and were further away. We discussed how people's attitudes were modulated by human-wildlife conflicts and by the benefits derived from the access to natural resources in communal land, and the implications for the conservation of Afroalpine ecosystem and the flagship Ethiopian wolf.

Toward Human-Carnivore Coexistence: Understanding Tolerance for Tigers in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Inskip, Chloe; Roberts, Thomas; MacMillan, Douglas

2016-01-01

Fostering local community tolerance for endangered carnivores, such as tigers (Panthera tigris), is a core component of many conservation strategies. Identification of antecedents of tolerance will facilitate the development of effective tolerance-building conservation action and secure local community support for, and involvement in, conservation initiatives. We use a stated preference approach for measuring tolerance, based on the ‘Wildlife Stakeholder Acceptance Capacity’ concept, to explore villagers’ tolerance levels for tigers in the Bangladesh Sundarbans, an area where, at the time of the research, human-tiger conflict was severe. We apply structural equation modeling to test an a priori defined theoretical model of tolerance and identify the experiential and psychological basis of tolerance in this community. Our results indicate that beliefs about tigers and about the perceived current tiger population trend are predictors of tolerance for tigers. Positive beliefs about tigers and a belief that the tiger population is not currently increasing are both associated with greater stated tolerance for the species. Contrary to commonly-held notions, negative experiences with tigers do not directly affect tolerance levels; instead, their effect is mediated by villagers’ beliefs about tigers and risk perceptions concerning human-tiger conflict incidents. These findings highlight a need to explore and understand the socio-psychological factors that encourage tolerance towards endangered species. Our research also demonstrates the applicability of this approach to tolerance research to a wide range of socio-economic and cultural contexts and reveals its capacity to enhance carnivore conservation efforts worldwide. PMID:26760035

Toward Human-Carnivore Coexistence: Understanding Tolerance for Tigers in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Inskip, Chloe; Carter, Neil; Riley, Shawn; Roberts, Thomas; MacMillan, Douglas

2016-01-01

Fostering local community tolerance for endangered carnivores, such as tigers (Panthera tigris), is a core component of many conservation strategies. Identification of antecedents of tolerance will facilitate the development of effective tolerance-building conservation action and secure local community support for, and involvement in, conservation initiatives. We use a stated preference approach for measuring tolerance, based on the 'Wildlife Stakeholder Acceptance Capacity' concept, to explore villagers' tolerance levels for tigers in the Bangladesh Sundarbans, an area where, at the time of the research, human-tiger conflict was severe. We apply structural equation modeling to test an a priori defined theoretical model of tolerance and identify the experiential and psychological basis of tolerance in this community. Our results indicate that beliefs about tigers and about the perceived current tiger population trend are predictors of tolerance for tigers. Positive beliefs about tigers and a belief that the tiger population is not currently increasing are both associated with greater stated tolerance for the species. Contrary to commonly-held notions, negative experiences with tigers do not directly affect tolerance levels; instead, their effect is mediated by villagers' beliefs about tigers and risk perceptions concerning human-tiger conflict incidents. These findings highlight a need to explore and understand the socio-psychological factors that encourage tolerance towards endangered species. Our research also demonstrates the applicability of this approach to tolerance research to a wide range of socio-economic and cultural contexts and reveals its capacity to enhance carnivore conservation efforts worldwide.

Community Resource Uses and Ethiopian Wolf Conservation in Mount Abune Yosef.

PubMed

Eshete, Girma; Tesfay, Girmay; Bauer, Hans; Ashenafi, Zelealem Tefera; de Iongh, Hans; Marino, Jorgelina

2015-09-01

People who perceive economic benefits and enjoy unrestricted access to natural resources tend to support ecosystem conservation efforts. Our study explores whether this remains true in remnant patches of Afroalpine ecosystem in North Ethiopia, where communal land provides valuable natural resources for the local communities and also sustain small populations of the endangered Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis). Questionnaires were designed to assess ecological and socio-economic characteristics of the livelihoods of the Amhara people living in Mount Abune Yosef and their attitudes toward Afroalpine and Ethiopian wolf conservation. Of the 120 households interviewed, selected randomly from across eight villages, 80 % benefited from natural resources by grazing their livestock and harvesting firewood and grasses. The majority (90 %) also suffered from livestock predation by Ethiopian wolves and common jackals (Canis aureus) and crop raiding by geladas (Theropithecus gelada), birds, and rodents, yet more than half reported a positive attitudes toward Ethiopian wolves (66 %). People with positive attitudes tended to live close to the communal land, to own more livestock, and to be unaffected by conflict. Many also recognized the need to protect the Afroalpine habitats of Abune Yosef (71 %), and this attitude predominated among the literate, households that owned land, had smaller herds and were further away. We discussed how people's attitudes were modulated by human-wildlife conflicts and by the benefits derived from the access to natural resources in communal land, and the implications for the conservation of Afroalpine ecosystem and the flagship Ethiopian wolf.

A Right to Counsel? Courtside.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zirkel, Perry A.

1996-01-01

Describes a suit against the East Lansing (Michigan) Schools, brought by conservative religious parents dissatisfied with counseling, music, and conflict-resolution activities provided for their third-grade son. The plaintiffs' action failed. The Hatch Act has limitations. However, there is strong public sentiment against entrusting schools with…

Physical restoration of eroded soils in the Northern Great Plains (NA)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Management of agricultural lands often seeks to modify or control non-human environmental factors so as to support diverse (and often conflicting) objectives, such as extraction of resources, profitability, human survival, soil and water conservation, maintenance of wildlife habitat, food security, ...

The importance of resident environmental awareness in conservation of urban wildlife populations

EPA Science Inventory

The proximity of humans and wildlife to each other along the wildland-urban interface results in constant potential conflict between human activity and wildlife populations. Since 2002, California biologists have observed a drastic increase in carnivore mortalities that are asso...

New Technological Interventions in Conservation Conflicts: Countering Emotions and Contested Knowledge.

PubMed

Verma, Audrey; van der Wal, René; Fischer, Anke

2017-01-01

New technologies have increasingly featured in environmental conservation conflicts. We examined the deployment of imaging devices such as sonar equipment and cameras to survey the Fal estuary in Cornwall, UK. Due to heavy use of these waters, there have been several disputes coalescing around protected marine features, including the estuary's rare maerl beds. A comparison of two cases, scallop dredging and docks development, showed technical instruments being deployed to produce information about the marine environment as evidence to inform decision-making. The use of imaging devices stimulated political action and was regarded as a move away from emotion-based decision-making towards desired objectivity. Simultaneously, however, the process of deploying these devices was challenged and there was recognition that the resultant information could be used to construct the estuary as a politically charged space. Thus, rather than clarifying and resolving contentious issues, technological interventions generated new baselines for knowledge contestation and amplified ongoing battles for credibility and authority.

HONDA'S IDEA ABOUT THE UTILIZATION OF NATURAL SCENERY ON "THE USE OF SCENIC LANDSCAPES"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogawa, Toru; Sanada, Junko

Essentially, natural scenery area plan must include scenery conservation and utilization as well as natural conservation, actually however, it is said that natural scenery area plan leans much toward natural conservation. So this study aims to focus on Seiroku Honda who has a major thinking about "utilization of scenery" in the Japanese national park's formation stage and clarify Honda's idea about the utilization of natural scenery by analyzing his "the Use of Scenic Landscapes". As a result, following three points are clarified. 1) Honda has four ideas in the base of each plans. 2) scenic landscape as resources in Honda's own ideas. 3) there was some conflict between modification ways and landscape resources.

Ten things to get right for marine conservation planning in the Coral Triangle.

PubMed

Weeks, Rebecca; Pressey, Robert L; Wilson, Joanne R; Knight, Maurice; Horigue, Vera; Abesamis, Rene A; Acosta, Renerio; Jompa, Jamaluddin

2014-01-01

Systematic conservation planning increasingly underpins the conservation and management of marine and coastal ecosystems worldwide. Amongst other benefits, conservation planning provides transparency in decision-making, efficiency in the use of limited resources, the ability to minimise conflict between diverse objectives, and to guide strategic expansion of local actions to maximise their cumulative impact. The Coral Triangle has long been recognised as a global marine conservation priority, and has been the subject of huge investment in conservation during the last five years through the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security. Yet conservation planning has had relatively little influence in this region. To explore why this is the case, we identify and discuss 10 challenges that must be resolved if conservation planning is to effectively inform management actions in the Coral Triangle. These are: making conservation planning accessible; integrating with other planning processes; building local capacity for conservation planning; institutionalising conservation planning within governments; integrating plans across governance levels; planning across governance boundaries; planning for multiple tools and objectives; understanding limitations of data; developing better measures of progress and effectiveness; and making a long term commitment. Most important is a conceptual shift from conservation planning undertaken as a project, to planning undertaken as a process, with dedicated financial and human resources committed to long-term engagement.

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds.

PubMed

Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

2015-07-01

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union.

Landscape Suitability in Botswana for the Conservation of Its Six Large African Carnivores

PubMed Central

Winterbach, Hanlie E. K.; Winterbach, Christiaan W.; Somers, Michael J.

2014-01-01

Wide-ranging large carnivores often range beyond the boundaries of protected areas into human-dominated areas. Mapping out potentially suitable habitats on a country-wide scale and identifying areas with potentially high levels of threats to large carnivore survival is necessary to develop national conservation action plans. We used a novel approach to map and identify these areas in Botswana for its large carnivore guild consisting of lion (Panthera leo), leopard (Panthera pardus), spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta), brown hyaena (Hyaena brunnea), cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) and African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). The habitat suitability for large carnivores depends primarily on prey availability, interspecific competition, and conflict with humans. Prey availability is most likely the strongest natural determinant. We used the distribution of biomass of typical wild ungulate species occurring in Botswana which is preyed upon by the six large carnivores to evaluate the potential suitability of the different management zones in the country to sustain large carnivore populations. In areas where a high biomass of large prey species occurred, we assumed interspecific competition between dominant and subordinated competitors to be high. This reduced the suitability of these areas for conservation of subordinate competitors, and vice versa. We used the percentage of prey biomass of the total prey and livestock biomass to identify areas with potentially high levels of conflict in agricultural areas. High to medium biomass of large prey was mostly confined to conservation zones, while small prey biomass was more evenly spread across large parts of the country. This necessitates different conservation strategies for carnivores with a preference for large prey, and those that can persist in the agricultural areas. To ensure connectivity between populations inside Botswana and also with its neighbours, a number of critical areas for priority management actions exist in the agricultural zones. PMID:24949735

Landscape suitability in Botswana for the conservation of its six large African carnivores.

PubMed

Winterbach, Hanlie E K; Winterbach, Christiaan W; Somers, Michael J

2014-01-01

Wide-ranging large carnivores often range beyond the boundaries of protected areas into human-dominated areas. Mapping out potentially suitable habitats on a country-wide scale and identifying areas with potentially high levels of threats to large carnivore survival is necessary to develop national conservation action plans. We used a novel approach to map and identify these areas in Botswana for its large carnivore guild consisting of lion (Panthera leo), leopard (Panthera pardus), spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta), brown hyaena (Hyaena brunnea), cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) and African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). The habitat suitability for large carnivores depends primarily on prey availability, interspecific competition, and conflict with humans. Prey availability is most likely the strongest natural determinant. We used the distribution of biomass of typical wild ungulate species occurring in Botswana which is preyed upon by the six large carnivores to evaluate the potential suitability of the different management zones in the country to sustain large carnivore populations. In areas where a high biomass of large prey species occurred, we assumed interspecific competition between dominant and subordinated competitors to be high. This reduced the suitability of these areas for conservation of subordinate competitors, and vice versa. We used the percentage of prey biomass of the total prey and livestock biomass to identify areas with potentially high levels of conflict in agricultural areas. High to medium biomass of large prey was mostly confined to conservation zones, while small prey biomass was more evenly spread across large parts of the country. This necessitates different conservation strategies for carnivores with a preference for large prey, and those that can persist in the agricultural areas. To ensure connectivity between populations inside Botswana and also with its neighbours, a number of critical areas for priority management actions exist in the agricultural zones.

Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

PubMed Central

Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

2015-01-01

Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union. PMID:26681982

Lost in translation: conflicting views of deforestation, land use and identity in western Madagascar.

PubMed

Scales, Ivan R

2012-01-01

This paper focuses on the interplay between environmental narratives, identity politics and the management of forest resources in Madagascar. While efforts to conserve the island's biological diversity have centred primarily on the designation of protected areas, policies have increasingly focused on local communities. The experiences of the last 20 years have shown that community-based approaches to conservation offer considerable challenges due to the complex politics of natural resource use, which involve multiple and diverse stakeholders, often with very different and sometimes conflicting values. In this paper, I focus on the environmental perceptions and values of two groups in the Central Menabe region of western Madagascar – conservation organisations and rural households – revealing a contrasting set of views regarding the region's forest. I show that the conservation discourse has changed over time, increasingly emphasising the biological diversity of the region's tropical dry-deciduous forest and prioritising non-consumptive uses of natural resources. Although policy has changed in response to changing values, I show that it has been underpinned by the notion that hatsake (‘slash-and-burn’ agriculture) is an irrational practice driven by necessity rather than choice. Policy has thus sought to provide livelihood alternatives, firstly through forestry, then through changes in cultivation and increasingly through tourism. This misunderstands the local view of the forest, which sees hatsake as a way to make the land productive, as long as it is carried out responsibly according to local fady (taboos). As well as facing problems of translating conservation goals into local values and misunderstanding the motives for forest clearance, policy has been based on a narrative that attaches particular land use practices to ethnic identities. I argue that this ignores the history and fluid reality of both identity and land use.

Work–Family Conflict and Mental Health Among Female Employees: A Sequential Mediation Model via Negative Affect and Perceived Stress

PubMed Central

Zhou, Shiyi; Da, Shu; Guo, Heng; Zhang, Xichao

2018-01-01

After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, more and more working women have found themselves caught in the dilemma of whether to raise a baby or be promoted, which exacerbates work–family conflicts among Chinese women. Few studies have examined the mediating effect of negative affect. The present study combined the conservation of resources model and affective events theory to examine the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and perceived stress in the relationship between work–family conflict and mental health. A valid sample of 351 full-time Chinese female employees was recruited in this study, and participants voluntarily answered online questionnaires. Pearson correlation analysis, structural equation modeling, and multiple mediation analysis were used to examine the relationships between work–family conflict, negative affect, perceived stress, and mental health in full-time female employees. We found that women’s perceptions of both work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict were significant negatively related to mental health. Additionally, the results showed that negative affect and perceived stress were negatively correlated with mental health. The 95% confidence intervals indicated the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and stress in the relationship between work–family conflict and mental health was significant, which supported the hypothesized sequential mediation model. The findings suggest that work–family conflicts affected the level of self-reported mental health, and this relationship functioned through the two sequential mediators of negative affect and perceived stress. PMID:29719522

A regional strategy for ecological sustainability: A case study in Southwest China.

PubMed

Wu, Xue; Liu, Shiliang; Cheng, Fangyan; Hou, Xiaoyun; Zhang, Yueqiu; Dong, Shikui; Liu, Guohua

2018-03-01

Partitioning, a method considering environmental protection and development potential, is an effective way to provide regional management strategies to maintain ecological sustainability. In this study, we provide a large-scale regional division approach and present a strategy for Southwest China, which also has extremely high development potential because of the "Western development" policy. Based on the superposition of 15 factors, including species diversity, pattern restriction, agricultural potential, accessibility, urbanization potential, and topographical limitations, the environmental value and development benefit in the region were quantified spatially by weighting the sum of indicators within environmental and development categories. By comparing the scores with their respective median values, the study area was divided into four different strategy zones: Conserve zones (34.94%), Construction zones (32.95%), Conflict zones (16.96%), and Low-tension zones (15.16%). The Conflict zones in which environmental value and development benefit were both higher than the respective medians were separated further into the following 5 levels: Extreme conflict (36.20%), Serious conflict (28.07%), Moderate conflict (12.28%), Minor conflict (6.55%), and Slight conflict (16.91%). We found that 9.04% of nature reserves were in Conflict zones, and thus should be given more attention. This study provides a simple and feasible method for regional partitioning, as well as comprehensive support that weighs both the environmental value and development benefit for China's current Ecological Red Line and space planning and for regional management in similar situations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Work-Family Conflict and Mental Health Among Female Employees: A Sequential Mediation Model via Negative Affect and Perceived Stress.

PubMed

Zhou, Shiyi; Da, Shu; Guo, Heng; Zhang, Xichao

2018-01-01

After the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, more and more working women have found themselves caught in the dilemma of whether to raise a baby or be promoted, which exacerbates work-family conflicts among Chinese women. Few studies have examined the mediating effect of negative affect. The present study combined the conservation of resources model and affective events theory to examine the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and perceived stress in the relationship between work-family conflict and mental health. A valid sample of 351 full-time Chinese female employees was recruited in this study, and participants voluntarily answered online questionnaires. Pearson correlation analysis, structural equation modeling, and multiple mediation analysis were used to examine the relationships between work-family conflict, negative affect, perceived stress, and mental health in full-time female employees. We found that women's perceptions of both work-to-family conflict and family-to-work conflict were significant negatively related to mental health. Additionally, the results showed that negative affect and perceived stress were negatively correlated with mental health. The 95% confidence intervals indicated the sequential mediating effect of negative affect and stress in the relationship between work-family conflict and mental health was significant, which supported the hypothesized sequential mediation model. The findings suggest that work-family conflicts affected the level of self-reported mental health, and this relationship functioned through the two sequential mediators of negative affect and perceived stress.

Predicting and mapping potential Whooping Crane stopover habitat to guide site selection for wind energy projects.

PubMed

Belaire, J Amy; Kreakie, Betty J; Keitt, Timothy; Minor, Emily

2014-04-01

Migratory stopover habitats are often not part of planning for conservation or new development projects. We identified potential stopover habitats within an avian migratory flyway and demonstrated how this information can guide the site-selection process for new development. We used the random forests modeling approach to map the distribution of predicted stopover habitat for the Whooping Crane (Grus americana), an endangered species whose migratory flyway overlaps with an area where wind energy development is expected to become increasingly important. We then used this information to identify areas for potential wind power development in a U.S. state within the flyway (Nebraska) that minimize conflicts between Whooping Crane stopover habitat and the development of clean, renewable energy sources. Up to 54% of our study area was predicted to be unsuitable as Whooping Crane stopover habitat and could be considered relatively low risk for conflicts between Whooping Cranes and wind energy development. We suggest that this type of analysis be incorporated into the habitat conservation planning process in areas where incidental take permits are being considered for Whooping Cranes or other species of concern. Field surveys should always be conducted prior to construction to verify model predictions and understand baseline conditions. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Advances in Energy Conservation of China Steel Industry

PubMed Central

Sun, Wenqiang; Cai, Jiuju; Ye, Zhu

2013-01-01

The course, technical progresses, and achievements of energy conservation of China steel industry (CSI) during 1980–2010 were summarized. Then, the paper adopted e-p method to analyze the variation law and influencing factors of energy consumptions of large- and medium-scale steel plants within different stages. It is pointed out that energy consumption per ton of crude steel has been almost one half lower in these thirty years, with 60% as direct energy conservation owing to the change of process energy consumption and 40% as indirect energy conservation attributed to the adjustment of production structure. Next, the latest research progress of some key common technologies in CSI was introduced. Also, the downtrend of energy consumption per ton of crude steel and the potential energy conservation for CSI during 2011–2025 were forecasted. Finally, it is indicated that the key topic of the next 15 years' research on the energy conservation of CSI is the synergistic operation of material flow and energy flow. It could be achieved by the comprehensive study on energy flow network optimization, such as production, allocation, utilization, recovery, reuse, and resource, according to the energy quantity, quality, and user demand following the first and second laws of thermodynamics. PMID:23533344

Advances in energy conservation of China steel industry.

PubMed

Sun, Wenqiang; Cai, Jiuju; Ye, Zhu

2013-01-01

The course, technical progresses, and achievements of energy conservation of China steel industry (CSI) during 1980-2010 were summarized. Then, the paper adopted e-p method to analyze the variation law and influencing factors of energy consumptions of large- and medium-scale steel plants within different stages. It is pointed out that energy consumption per ton of crude steel has been almost one half lower in these thirty years, with 60% as direct energy conservation owing to the change of process energy consumption and 40% as indirect energy conservation attributed to the adjustment of production structure. Next, the latest research progress of some key common technologies in CSI was introduced. Also, the downtrend of energy consumption per ton of crude steel and the potential energy conservation for CSI during 2011-2025 were forecasted. Finally, it is indicated that the key topic of the next 15 years' research on the energy conservation of CSI is the synergistic operation of material flow and energy flow. It could be achieved by the comprehensive study on energy flow network optimization, such as production, allocation, utilization, recovery, reuse, and resource, according to the energy quantity, quality, and user demand following the first and second laws of thermodynamics.

Leadership: a new frontier in conservation science.

PubMed

Manolis, Jim C; Chan, Kai M; Finkelstein, Myra E; Stephens, Scott; Nelson, Cara R; Grant, Jacqualine B; Dombeck, Michael P

2009-08-01

Leadership is a critical tool for expanding the influence of conservation science, but recent advances in leadership concepts and practice remain underutilized by conservation scientists. Furthermore, an explicit conceptual foundation and definition of leadership in conservation science are not available in the literature. Here we drew on our diverse leadership experiences, our reading of leadership literature, and discussions with selected conservation science leaders to define conservation-science leadership, summarize an exploratory set of leadership principles that are applicable to conservation science, and recommend actions to expand leadership capacity among conservation scientists and practitioners. We define 2 types of conservation-science leadership: shaping conservation science through path-breaking research, and advancing the integration of conservation science into policy, management, and society at large. We focused on the second, integrative type of leadership because we believe it presents the greatest opportunity for improving conservation effectiveness. We identified 8 leadership principles derived mainly from the "adaptive leadership" literature: recognize the social dimension of the problem; cycle frequently through action and reflection; get and maintain attention; combine strengths of multiple leaders; extend your reach through networks of relationships; strategically time your effort; nurture productive conflict; and cultivate diversity. Conservation scientists and practitioners should strive to develop themselves as leaders, and the Society for Conservation Biology, conservation organizations, and academia should support this effort through professional development, mentoring, teaching, and research.

The Prediction of the Work of Friction Force on the Arbitrary Path

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matehkolaee, Mehdi Jafari; Majidian, Kourosh

2013-01-01

In this paper we have calculated the work of friction force on the arbitrary path. In our method didn't use from energy conservative conceptions any way. The distinction of this procedure is that at least do decrease measurement on the path once. Thus we can forecast the amount of work of friction force without information about speed of…

Cost/benefit tradeoffs for reducing the energy consumption of the commercial air transportation system. Volume 2: Market and economic analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vanabkoude, J. C.

1976-01-01

The impact of the most promising fuel conserving options on fuel consumption, passenger demand, operating costs, and airline profits when implemented into the U.S. domestic and international airline fleets is assessed. The potential fuel savings achievable in the U.S. scheduled air transportation system over the forecast period, 1973-1990, are estimated.

Students and the Conflicts of the Sixties.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Altbach, Philip G.

1989-01-01

Reviews four books about the student protest movements of the 1960s. Two books, by Todd Gitlin and Tom Hayden, focus on the United States, while the others consider international events; all four examine student political activism, but none considers the resultant conservative political and social reactions. (DHP)

Scale dependence of felid predation risk: Identifying predictors of livestock kills by tiger and leopard in Bhutan

Treesearch

Susana Rostro-Garcia; Lhendup Tharchen; Leandro Abade; Christos Astaras; Samuel A. Cushman; David W. Macdonald

2016-01-01

Livestock predation by tiger and leopard in Bhutan is a major threat to the conservation of these felids. Conflict mitigation planning would benefit from an improved understanding of the spatial pattern of livestock kills by the two predators.

When Worldviews Collide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haynes, Charles C.

2012-01-01

Escalating conflicts over issues involving sexual orientation in public schools often pit conservative Christians against proponents of gay rights--with school leaders caught in the crossfire. Some beleaguered school administrators attempt to put a lid on the controversy by censoring student expression on one side or the other. But that tactic…

Prioritizing bird conservation actions in the Prairie Hardwood transition of the Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Crimmins, Shawn M.; Pearce, Jennie

2014-01-01

Large-scale planning for the conservation of species is often hindered by a poor understanding of factors limiting populations. In regions with declining wildlife populations, it is critical that objective metrics of conservation success are developed to ensure that conservation actions achieve desired results. Using spatially explicit estimates of bird abundance, we evaluated several management alternatives for conserving bird populations in the Prairie Hardwood Transition of the United States. We designed landscapes conserving species at 50% of their current predicted abundance as well as landscapes attempting to achieve species population targets (which often required the doubling of current abundance). Conserving species at reduced (half of current) abundance led to few conservation conflicts. However, because of extensive modification of the landscape to suit human use, strategies for achieving regional population targets for forest bird species would be difficult under even ideal circumstances, and even more so if maintenance of grassland bird populations is also desired. Our results indicated that large-scale restoration of agricultural lands to native grassland and forest habitats may be the most productive conservation action for increasing bird population sizes but the level of landscape transition required to approach target bird population sizes may be societally unacceptable.

Distribution-Agnostic Stochastic Optimal Power Flow for Distribution Grids: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Kyri; Dall'Anese, Emiliano; Summers, Tyler

2016-09-01

This paper outlines a data-driven, distributionally robust approach to solve chance-constrained AC optimal power flow problems in distribution networks. Uncertain forecasts for loads and power generated by photovoltaic (PV) systems are considered, with the goal of minimizing PV curtailment while meeting power flow and voltage regulation constraints. A data- driven approach is utilized to develop a distributionally robust conservative convex approximation of the chance-constraints; particularly, the mean and covariance matrix of the forecast errors are updated online, and leveraged to enforce voltage regulation with predetermined probability via Chebyshev-based bounds. By combining an accurate linear approximation of the AC power flowmore » equations with the distributionally robust chance constraint reformulation, the resulting optimization problem becomes convex and computationally tractable.« less

Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dietze, Michael C.; Fox, Andrew; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Keitt, Tim H.; Kenney, Melissa; Laney, Christine; Larsen, Laurel; Loescher, Henry W.; Lunch, Claire; Pijanowski, Bryan; Randerson, James T.; Read, Emily; Tredennick, Andrew T.; Weathers, Kathleen; White, Ethan P.

2016-01-01

A fundamental environmental challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond is predicting the impacts of global environmental change. This challenge is complicated by the fact that we live on a non-stationary, unreplicated planet that is rapidly moving outside the envelope of natural variability into an historical non-analog world. In other words, while the past helps inform us about how the world has worked, it may no longer be the relevant frame of reference for management, conservation, and sustainability. In this future world the two questions at the foundation of sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect this trajectory?” These are, at their heart, questions about ecological forecasting.

COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Weber, Elke; Berger, Loïc; Budescu, David V.; Liu, Ning; Tavoni, Massimo

2017-02-01

Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models' forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models' forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest.

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions

PubMed Central

Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

2015-01-01

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change. PMID:26551357

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions.

PubMed

Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

2015-01-01

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.

Forecasting runout of rock and debris avalanches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Richard M.; Evans, S.G.; Mugnozza, G.S.; Strom, A.; Hermanns, R.L.

2006-01-01

Physically based mathematical models and statistically based empirical equations each may provide useful means of forecasting runout of rock and debris avalanches. This paper compares the foundations, strengths, and limitations of a physically based model and a statistically based forecasting method, both of which were developed to predict runout across three-dimensional topography. The chief advantage of the physically based model results from its ties to physical conservation laws and well-tested axioms of soil and rock mechanics, such as the Coulomb friction rule and effective-stress principle. The output of this model provides detailed information about the dynamics of avalanche runout, at the expense of high demands for accurate input data, numerical computation, and experimental testing. In comparison, the statistical method requires relatively modest computation and no input data except identification of prospective avalanche source areas and a range of postulated avalanche volumes. Like the physically based model, the statistical method yields maps of predicted runout, but it provides no information on runout dynamics. Although the two methods differ significantly in their structure and objectives, insights gained from one method can aid refinement of the other.

On the effect of gyroscopic forces on the instability of certain fluid-elastic systems. Part 1: Definitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kornecki, A.

1983-09-01

This study was motivated by work on the stability of nonconservative elastic systems and flutter of certain fluid-elastic systems. A literature review revealed that the concepts of conservative forces (and systems) and gyroscopic forces (and systems) need clarifications, and the definitions formulated by different authors for the forces and systems are sometimes conflicting. In this report, these controversies are thoroughly discussed and conservative and gyroscopic systems are redefined within the framework of the classical dynamics of a system of particles.

A Near Real-time Decision Support System Improving Forest Management in the Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabor, K.; Musinsky, J.; Ledezma, J.; Rasolohery, A.; Mendoza, E.; Kistler, H.; Steininger, M.; Morton, D. C.; Melton, F. S.; Manwell, J.; Koenig, K.

2013-12-01

Conservation International (CI) has a decade of experience developing near real-time fire and deforestation monitoring and forecasting systems that channel monitoring information from satellite observations directly to national and sub-national government agencies, Non-Government Organizations (NGOs), and local communities. These systems are used to strengthen forest surveillance and monitoring, fire management and prevention, protected areas management and sustainable land use planning. With support from a NASA Wildland Fires grant, in September 2013 CI will launch a brand new near real-time alert system (FIRECAST) to better meet the outstanding needs and challenges users face in addressing ecosystem degradation from wildland fire and illegal forest activities. Outreach efforts and user feedback have indicated the need for seasonal fire forecasts for effective land use planning, faster alert delivery to enhance response to illegal forest activities, and expanded forest monitoring capabilities that enable proactive responses and that strengthen forest conservation and sustainable development actions. The new FIRECAST system addresses these challenges by integrating the current fire alert and deforestation systems and adding improved ecological forecasting of fire risk; expanding data exchange capabilities with mobile technologies; and delivering a deforestation alert product that can inform policies related to land use management and Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). In addition to demonstrating the capabilities of this new real-time alert system, we also highlight how coordination with host-country institutions enhances the system's capacity to address the implementation needs of REDD+ forest carbon projects, improve tropical forest management, strengthen environmental law enforcement, and facilitate the uptake of near real-time satellite monitoring data into business practices of these national/sub-national institutions.

Work, family, support, and depression: employed mothers in Israel, Korea, and the United States.

PubMed

O'Brien, Karen M; Ganginis Del Pino, Heather V; Yoo, Sung-Kyung; Cinamon, Rachel Gali; Han, Young-Joo

2014-07-01

Our research revealed differences in work-family constructs for employed mothers in 3 countries, Israel (N = 105), Korea (N = 298), and the United States (N = 305). Although levels of work-family conflict were comparable, the Korean women had the lowest levels of work-family enrichment compared with the Israeli and American mothers. Moreover, Korean women reported the most depression and the least support from both spouses and employers. Spousal support mediated the relationship between work-family conflict and depression for employed mothers in Israel, Korea, and the United States. As hypothesized by conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989, 1998, 2001), threat of resource loss (operationalized as work-family conflict) was related to depression more strongly than was resource gain (i.e., work-family enrichment). PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

The influence of workplace injuries on work-family conflict: job and financial insecurity as mechanisms.

PubMed

Lawrence, Ericka R; Halbesleben, Jonathon R B; Paustian-Underdahl, Samantha C

2013-10-01

Research examining the outcomes of workplace injuries has focused on high costs to the organization. In this study, we utilize conservation of resources theory to develop and test a model that explains how and under what circumstances workplace injuries impact employees' perceptions of how their work interferes with their family. Results from 194 registered nurses (along with 85 of their spouses), using path analytic tests of moderated mediation, provide support for the prediction that the mediated effect of workplace injury severity on work-family conflict (through job and financial insecurity) is weaker when employees perceive high levels of supervisor support. We discuss the implications of these findings for the study of job and financial insecurity and work-family conflict. Limitations of this study and directions for future research are also presented.

Social and economic ideologies differentially predict prejudice across the political spectrum, but social issues are most divisive.

PubMed

Crawford, Jarret T; Brandt, Mark J; Inbar, Yoel; Chambers, John R; Motyl, Matt

2017-03-01

Liberals and conservatives both express prejudice toward ideologically dissimilar others (Brandt et al., 2014). Previous work on ideological prejudice did not take advantage of evidence showing that ideology is multidimensional, with social and economic ideologies representing related but separable belief systems. In 5 studies (total N = 4912), we test 3 competing hypotheses of a multidimensional account of ideological prejudice. The dimension-specific symmetry hypothesis predicts that social and economic ideologies differentially predict prejudice against targets who are perceived to vary on the social and economic political dimensions, respectively. The social primacy hypothesis predicts that such ideological worldview conflict is experienced more strongly along the social than economic dimension. The social-specific asymmetry hypothesis predicts that social conservatives will be more prejudiced than social liberals, with no specific hypotheses for the economic dimension. Using multiple target groups, multiple prejudice measures (e.g., global evaluations, behavior), and multiple social and economic ideology measures (self-placement, issue positions), we found relatively consistent support for the dimension-specific symmetry and social primacy hypotheses, and no support for the social-specific asymmetry hypothesis. These results suggest that worldview conflict and negative intergroup attitudes and behaviors are dimension-specific, but that the social dimension appears to inspire more political conflict than the economic dimension. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A generalized approach to wheat yield forecasting using earth observations: Data considerations, application and relevance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker-Reshef, Inbal

In recent years there has been a dramatic increase in the demand for timely, comprehensive global agricultural intelligence. The issue of food security has rapidly risen to the top of government agendas around the world as the recent lack of food access led to unprecedented food prices, hunger, poverty, and civil conflict. Timely information on global crop production is indispensable for combating the growing stress on the world's crop production, for stabilizing food prices, developing effective agricultural policies, and for coordinating responses to regional food shortages. Earth Observations (EO) data offer a practical means for generating such information as they provide global, timely, cost-effective, and synoptic information on crop condition and distribution. Their utility for crop production forecasting has long been recognized and demonstrated across a wide range of scales and geographic regions. Nevertheless it is widely acknowledged that EO data could be better utilized within the operational monitoring systems and thus there is a critical need for research focused on developing practical robust methods for agricultural monitoring. Within this context this dissertation focused on advancing EO-based methods for crop yield forecasting and on demonstrating the potential relevance for adopting EO-based crop forecasts for providing timely reliable agricultural intelligence. This thesis made contributions to this field by developing and testing a robust EO-based method for wheat production forecasting at state to national scales using available and easily accessible data. The model was developed in Kansas (KS) using coarse resolution normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series data in conjunction with out-of-season wheat masks and was directly applied in Ukraine to assess its transferability. The model estimated yields within 7% in KS and 10% in Ukraine of final estimates 6 weeks prior to harvest. The relevance of adopting such methods to provide timely reliable information to crop commodity markets is demonstrated through a 2010 case study.

Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict

PubMed Central

Miller, Jennifer R. B.; Jhala, Yadvendradev V.; Schmitz, Oswald J.

2016-01-01

Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people’s perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners’ perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict. PMID:27617831

Conflict Misleads Large Carnivore Management and Conservation: Brown Bears and Wolves in Spain.

PubMed

Fernández-Gil, Alberto; Naves, Javier; Ordiz, Andrés; Quevedo, Mario; Revilla, Eloy; Delibes, Miguel

2016-01-01

Large carnivores inhabiting human-dominated landscapes often interact with people and their properties, leading to conflict scenarios that can mislead carnivore management and, ultimately, jeopardize conservation. In northwest Spain, brown bears Ursus arctos are strictly protected, whereas sympatric wolves Canis lupus are subject to lethal control. We explored ecological, economic and societal components of conflict scenarios involving large carnivores and damages to human properties. We analyzed the relation between complaints of depredations by bears and wolves on beehives and livestock, respectively, and bear and wolf abundance, livestock heads, number of culled wolves, amount of paid compensations, and media coverage. We also evaluated the efficiency of wolf culling to reduce depredations on livestock. Bear damages to beehives correlated positively to the number of female bears with cubs of the year. Complaints of wolf predation on livestock were unrelated to livestock numbers; instead, they correlated positively to the number of wild ungulates harvested during the previous season, the number of wolf packs, and to wolves culled during the previous season. Compensations for wolf complaints were fivefold higher than for bears, but media coverage of wolf damages was thirtyfold higher. Media coverage of wolf damages was unrelated to the actual costs of wolf damages, but the amount of news correlated positively to wolf culling. However, wolf culling was followed by an increase in compensated damages. Our results show that culling of the wolf population failed in its goal of reducing damages, and suggest that management decisions are at least partly mediated by press coverage. We suggest that our results provide insight to similar scenarios, where several species of large carnivores share the landscape with humans, and management may be reactive to perceived conflicts.

Human Perceptions Mirror Realities of Carnivore Attack Risk for Livestock: Implications for Mitigating Human-Carnivore Conflict.

PubMed

Miller, Jennifer R B; Jhala, Yadvendradev V; Schmitz, Oswald J

2016-01-01

Human-carnivore conflict is challenging to quantify because it is shaped by both the realities and people's perceptions of carnivore threats. Whether perceptions align with realities can have implications for conflict mitigation: misalignments can lead to heightened and indiscriminant persecution of carnivores whereas alignments can offer deeper insights into human-carnivore interactions. We applied a landscape-scale spatial analysis of livestock killed by tigers and leopards in India to model and map observed attack risk, and surveyed owners of livestock killed by tigers and leopards for their rankings of threats across habitats to map perceived attack risk. Observed tiger risk to livestock was greatest near dense forests and at moderate distances from human activity while leopard risk was greatest near open vegetation. People accurately perceived spatial differences between tiger and leopard hunting patterns, expected greater threat in areas with high values of observed risk for both carnivores. Owners' perception of threats largely did not depend on environmental conditions surrounding their village (spatial location, dominant land-use or observed carnivore risk). Surveys revealed that owners who previously lost livestock to carnivores used more livestock protection methods than those who had no prior losses, and that owners who had recently lost livestock for the first time expressed greater interest in changing their protection methods than those who experienced prior losses. Our findings suggest that in systems where realities and perceptions of carnivore risk align, conservation programs and policies can optimize conservation outcomes by (1) improving the effectiveness of livestock protection methods and (2) working with owners who have recently lost livestock and are most willing to invest effort in adapting protection strategies to mitigate human-carnivore conflict.

Conflict Misleads Large Carnivore Management and Conservation: Brown Bears and Wolves in Spain

PubMed Central

Fernández-Gil, Alberto; Naves, Javier; Ordiz, Andrés; Quevedo, Mario; Revilla, Eloy; Delibes, Miguel

2016-01-01

Large carnivores inhabiting human-dominated landscapes often interact with people and their properties, leading to conflict scenarios that can mislead carnivore management and, ultimately, jeopardize conservation. In northwest Spain, brown bears Ursus arctos are strictly protected, whereas sympatric wolves Canis lupus are subject to lethal control. We explored ecological, economic and societal components of conflict scenarios involving large carnivores and damages to human properties. We analyzed the relation between complaints of depredations by bears and wolves on beehives and livestock, respectively, and bear and wolf abundance, livestock heads, number of culled wolves, amount of paid compensations, and media coverage. We also evaluated the efficiency of wolf culling to reduce depredations on livestock. Bear damages to beehives correlated positively to the number of female bears with cubs of the year. Complaints of wolf predation on livestock were unrelated to livestock numbers; instead, they correlated positively to the number of wild ungulates harvested during the previous season, the number of wolf packs, and to wolves culled during the previous season. Compensations for wolf complaints were fivefold higher than for bears, but media coverage of wolf damages was thirtyfold higher. Media coverage of wolf damages was unrelated to the actual costs of wolf damages, but the amount of news correlated positively to wolf culling. However, wolf culling was followed by an increase in compensated damages. Our results show that culling of the wolf population failed in its goal of reducing damages, and suggest that management decisions are at least partly mediated by press coverage. We suggest that our results provide insight to similar scenarios, where several species of large carnivores share the landscape with humans, and management may be reactive to perceived conflicts. PMID:26974962

Changing stakeholder relationships in nature reserve management: a case study on Snake Island-Laotie Mountain National Nature Reserve, Liaoning, China.

PubMed

Zhou, Dan; Wang, Ziyan; Lassoie, James; Wang, Xiaoping; Sun, Lixin

2014-12-15

The number and total area of nature reserves in China has increased rapidly over the past couple of decades; however, the ability to effectively manage these reserves has not kept pace and conflicts between conservation efforts and economic development have emerged. The Snake Island-Laotie Mountain National Nature Reserve (SILMNNR) currently is experiencing the challenges of balancing conservation with local community development. This paper uses components analysis of human ecosystems (HEC) to examine conflicts arising from the management of the nature reserve and uses a stakeholder analysis to identify and better understand stakeholder inter-relationships in the SILMNNR-HEC. The goal of this study is to identify critical factors influencing stakeholder relationships in order to find ways of relieving conflicts between the reserve management and development. The stakeholder analysis revealed that the key stakeholders in the SILMNNR-HEC are natural resources, the Liaoning SILMNNR Authority, local residents, and enterprise developers; however, there was unequal power among stakeholders in the decision making process affecting the nature reserve. The paper evaluated the conditions and processes of SILMNNR-HEC through a framework of stakeholder relationships where critical factors, such as policy, finance, technology, and labor, and their respective strengths and feedbacks among stakeholders, were assessed and showed unequal flows of power among stakeholders. Two approaches are provided for transforming the unbalanced relationships into a stable and sustainable framework to sustainably manage the nature reserve: the first is by changing stakeholder relationships from opposition to cooperation; and the second by enhancing feedbacks and dynamics among stakeholders. The analysis used in this paper can be used as a model to assess conflicts around other protected areas in China and elsewhere. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clarifying values, risk perceptions, and attitudes to resolve or avoid social conflicts in invasive species management.

PubMed

Estévez, Rodrigo A; Anderson, Christopher B; Pizarro, J Cristobal; Burgman, Mark A

2015-02-01

Decision makers and researchers recognize the need to effectively confront the social dimensions and conflicts inherent to invasive species research and management. Yet, despite numerous contentious situations that have arisen, no systematic evaluation of the literature has examined the commonalities in the patterns and types of these emergent social issues. Using social and ecological keywords, we reviewed trends in the social dimensions of invasive species research and management and the sources and potential solutions to problems and conflicts that arise around invasive species. We integrated components of cognitive hierarchy theory and risk perceptions theory to provide a conceptual framework to identify, distinguish, and provide understanding of the driving factors underlying disputes associated with invasive species. In the ISI Web of Science database, we found 15,915 peer-reviewed publications on biological invasions, 124 of which included social dimensions of this phenomenon. Of these 124, 28 studies described specific contentious situations. Social approaches to biological invasions have emerged largely in the last decade and have focused on both environmental social sciences and resource management. Despite being distributed in a range of journals, these 124 articles were concentrated mostly in ecology and conservation-oriented outlets. We found that conflicts surrounding invasive species arose based largely on differences in value systems and to a lesser extent stakeholder and decision maker's risk perceptions. To confront or avoid such situations, we suggest integrating the plurality of environmental values into invasive species research and management via structured decision making techniques, which enhance effective risk communication that promotes trust and confidence between stakeholders and decision makers. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Assisting upon entry: Helping type and approach as moderators of how role conflict affects newcomer resource drain.

PubMed

Bamberger, Peter A; Geller, Dvora; Doveh, Etti

2017-12-01

We extend recent research on the costs and benefits of helping to help providers by asking whether and under what conditions newcomer help giving may amplify or mitigate the role-conflict-based resource drain such individuals may experience in the context of their initial socialization. Drawing from conservation of resources (COR) theory, we propose that whether providing assistance to peers enhances or weakens newcomer help providers' resilience to such conflict-based resource drain (i.e., exhaustion) depends on both the type of help given (instrumental vs. emotional) and the orientation (more vs. less empowering) that newcomers adopt when providing it. We test our propositions on the basis of time-lagged data collected from newly hired call center representatives at the end of their first and sixth months on the job. Results largely support our predictions, with instrumental assistance mitigating, and emotional assistance exacerbating, the role-conflict-based resource drain experienced by newcomer help providers. Moreover, these amplifying effects of emotional help provision on the conflict-exhaustion relationship are largely eliminated among those newcomer help providers reporting a more empowering approach to help provision. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

"Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

2014-05-01

Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities in risk-taking rather than the "downside" and the general notion that catastrophes will get worse. The focus will be on the industry's ability to hedge and optimize risk more efficiently in a changing environment.

Central America's "Peace Parks" and Regional Conflict Resolution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weed, Timothy J.

1994-01-01

Examines the development of transborder conservation zones, known as "peace parks," in terms of their potential importance as proving grounds for international cooperation and sustainable development, and then in their role as symbols and outright manifestations of the peace process. Includes case studies of La Amistad Biosphere Reserve,…

Authority, Freedom and Liberal Judgment: The Presumptions and Presumptuousness of Whately, Mill and Tocqueville.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whedbee, Karen

1998-01-01

Examines the conflict between individualism and communitarianism (and its implications for rhetorical theory) by examining the historical debate between liberals and conservatives during and after the French Revolution. Shows how Richard Whately's notions of "presumption" and "burden of proof" (further developed by Mill and…

Putting multiple use and sustained yield into a landscape context

Treesearch

Thomas R. Crow

2002-01-01

When managing natural resources, foresters, wildlife biologists, and other practitioners need to consider a vast array of technical information, along with a multitude of values, opinions, and perspectives - many of which may be in conflict and therefore difficult to resolve. Ongoing discussions about ecosystem management, conserving biological diversiry, adaptive...

Transforming conservation science and practice for a postnormal world.

PubMed

Colloff, Matthew J; Lavorel, Sandra; van Kerkhoff, Lorrae E; Wyborn, Carina A; Fazey, Ioan; Gorddard, Russell; Mace, Georgina M; Foden, Wendy B; Dunlop, Michael; Prentice, I Colin; Crowley, John; Leadley, Paul; Degeorges, Patrick

2017-10-01

We examine issues to consider when reframing conservation science and practice in the context of global change. New framings of the links between ecosystems and society are emerging that are changing peoples' values and expectations of nature, resulting in plural perspectives on conservation. Reframing conservation for global change can thus be regarded as a stage in the evolving relationship between people and nature rather than some recent trend. New models of how conservation links with transformative adaptation include how decision contexts for conservation can be reframed and integrated with an adaptation pathways approach to create new options for global-change-ready conservation. New relationships for conservation science and governance include coproduction of knowledge that supports social learning. New processes for implementing adaptation for conservation outcomes include deliberate practices used to develop new strategies, shift world views, work with conflict, address power and intergenerational equity in decisions, and build consciousness and creativity that empower agents to act. We argue that reframing conservation for global change requires scientists and practitioners to implement approaches unconstrained by discipline and sectoral boundaries, geopolitical polarities, or technical problematization. We consider a stronger focus on inclusive creation of knowledge and the interaction of this knowledge with societal values and rules is likely to result in conservation science and practice that meets the challenges of a postnormal world. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only. PMID:23840330

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

PubMed

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

Ten things to get right for marine conservation planning in the Coral Triangle

PubMed Central

Weeks, Rebecca; Pressey, Robert L.; Wilson, Joanne R.; Knight, Maurice; Horigue, Vera; Abesamis, Rene A.; Acosta, Renerio; Jompa, Jamaluddin

2015-01-01

Systematic conservation planning increasingly underpins the conservation and management of marine and coastal ecosystems worldwide. Amongst other benefits, conservation planning provides transparency in decision-making, efficiency in the use of limited resources, the ability to minimise conflict between diverse objectives, and to guide strategic expansion of local actions to maximise their cumulative impact. The Coral Triangle has long been recognised as a global marine conservation priority, and has been the subject of huge investment in conservation during the last five years through the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security. Yet conservation planning has had relatively little influence in this region. To explore why this is the case, we identify and discuss 10 challenges that must be resolved if conservation planning is to effectively inform management actions in the Coral Triangle. These are: making conservation planning accessible; integrating with other planning processes; building local capacity for conservation planning; institutionalising conservation planning within governments; integrating plans across governance levels; planning across governance boundaries; planning for multiple tools and objectives; understanding limitations of data; developing better measures of progress and effectiveness; and making a long term commitment. Most important is a conceptual shift from conservation planning undertaken as a project, to planning undertaken as a process, with dedicated financial and human resources committed to long-term engagement. PMID:25110579

Forecasting in an integrated surface water-ground water system: The Big Cypress Basin, South Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butts, M. B.; Feng, K.; Klinting, A.; Stewart, K.; Nath, A.; Manning, P.; Hazlett, T.; Jacobsen, T.

2009-04-01

The South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) manages and protects the state's water resources on behalf of 7.5 million South Floridians and is the lead agency in restoring America's Everglades - the largest environmental restoration project in US history. Many of the projects to restore and protect the Everglades ecosystem are part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). The region has a unique hydrological regime, with close connection between surface water and groundwater, and a complex managed drainage network with many structures. Added to the physical complexity are the conflicting needs of the ecosystem for protection and restoration, versus the substantial urban development with the accompanying water supply, water quality and flood control issues. In this paper a novel forecasting and real-time modelling system is presented for the Big Cypress Basin. The Big Cypress Basin includes 272 km of primary canals and 46 water control structures throughout the area that provide limited levels of flood protection, as well as water supply and environmental quality management. This system is linked to the South Florida Water Management District's extensive real-time (SCADA) data monitoring and collection system. Novel aspects of this system include the use of a fully distributed and integrated modeling approach and a new filter-based updating approach for accurately forecasting river levels. Because of the interaction between surface- and groundwater a fully integrated forecast modeling approach is required. Indeed, results for the Tropical Storm Fay in 2008, the groundwater levels show an extremely rapid response to heavy rainfall. Analysis of this storm also shows that updating levels in the river system can have a direct impact on groundwater levels.

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species.

PubMed

Rougier, Thibaud; Lassalle, Géraldine; Drouineau, Hilaire; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Faure, Thierry; Deffuant, Guillaume; Rochard, Eric; Lambert, Patrick

2015-01-01

Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa), an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution) which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well.

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species

PubMed Central

Rougier, Thibaud; Lassalle, Géraldine; Drouineau, Hilaire; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Faure, Thierry; Deffuant, Guillaume; Rochard, Eric; Lambert, Patrick

2015-01-01

Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa), an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution) which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well. PMID:26426280

Future battlegrounds for conservation under global change

PubMed Central

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2008-01-01

Global biodiversity is under significant threat from the combined effects of human-induced climate and land-use change. Covering 12% of the Earth's terrestrial surface, protected areas are crucial for conserving biodiversity and supporting ecological processes beneficial to human well-being, but their selection and design are usually uninformed about future global change. Here, we quantify the exposure of the global reserve network to projected climate and land-use change according to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and set these threats in relation to the conservation value and capacity of biogeographic and geopolitical regions. We find that geographical patterns of past human impact on the land cover only poorly predict those of forecasted change, thus revealing the inadequacy of existing global conservation prioritization templates. Projected conservation risk, measured as regional levels of land-cover change in relation to area protected, is the greatest at high latitudes (due to climate change) and tropics/subtropics (due to land-use change). Only some high-latitude nations prone to high conservation risk are also of high conservation value, but their high relative wealth may facilitate additional conservation efforts. In contrast, most low-latitude nations tend to be of high conservation value, but they often have limited capacity for conservation which may exacerbate the global biodiversity extinction crisis. While our approach will clearly benefit from improved land-cover projections and a thorough understanding of how species range will shift under climate change, our results provide a first global quantitative demonstration of the urgent need to consider future environmental change in reserve-based conservation planning. They further highlight the pressing need for new reserves in target regions and support a much extended ‘north–south’ transfer of conservation resources that maximizes biodiversity conservation while mitigating global climate change. PMID:18302999

The conservation of sea otters: a prelude

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Larson, Shawn E.

2015-01-01

The story of sea otters over the past 275 years chronicles their decline to near extinction and the roads to recovery that cross various conflicts, and in the end provides lessons that will aid the conservation of other threatened species and compromised ecosystems. Sea otters inspire strong human emotions ranging from adoration to disdain. They are protected internationally, federally, and at state and local levels, yet still face a diversity of threats, representing the legacy of their decline as well as emerging consequences from the ever-deepening imprint of the human endeavor. Here we briefly introduce the species, chronicle its history of near-demise and subsequent recovery, and highlight several conservation successes and challenges. In this volume we bring together scientists with significant knowledge of and experience with the sea otter and its ecosystems to share lessons learned and consider how these might be used to aid in the enterprise of conservation more broadly.

A horizon scan for species conservation by zoos and aquariums.

PubMed

Gusset, Markus; Fa, John E; Sutherland, William J

2014-01-01

We conducted the first horizon scan for zoos and aquariums to identify the 10 most important emerging issues for species conservation. This involved input from more than 100 experts from both the wider conservation community and the world zoo and aquarium community. Some of the issues are globally important: diseases, zoonoses, and biosecurity issues; new (communication) technologies; global water shortage and food insecurity; developing economies and markets for wildlife consumption; changes in wildlife population dynamics; and political instability and conflicts. Other issues are more specific to zoos and aquariums: need for extractive reserves; space shortage in zoos and aquariums; need for metapopulation management; and demand for caring of more species in zoos and aquariums. We also identified some broad approaches to these issues. Addressing the emerging issues identified in our horizon scan will further increase the contribution of the world zoo and aquarium community to global biodiversity conservation. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Embeddedness and well-being in the United States and Singapore: the mediating effects of work-to-family and family-to-work conflict.

PubMed

Ng, Thomas W H; Feldman, Daniel C

2014-07-01

Guided by conservation of resources theory, we propose that both organizational and community embeddedness are associated with increased work-to-family conflict (WFC) and family to-work conflict (FWC), which in turn are associated with strain-related outcomes. Because stress can have both short-term and long-term consequences, we examined negative mood as an immediate reaction to stress and chronic insomnia as a longer-term reaction to stress. We examined these relationships in 2-career couples in both the United States (n = 416) and Singapore (n = 400). Results provided full support for the mediating effects of WFC and FWC in the U.S. sample, with only limited support for those mediating effects in the Singaporean sample. In addition, we found that the effects of community embeddedness on FWC were significantly stronger in the U.S. sample than in the Singaporean sample.

Coastal Marsh Monitoring for Persistent Saltwater Intrusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Callie M.

2008-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews NASA's work on the project that supports the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) Governors Action Plan to monitor the coastal wetlands for saltwater intrusion. The action items that relate to the task are: (1) Obtain information on projected relative sea level rise, subsidence, and storm vulnerability to help prioritize conservation projects, including restoration, enhancement, and acquisition, and (2) Develop and apply ecosystem models to forecast the habitat structure and succession following hurricane disturbance and changes in ecological functions and services that impact vital socio-economic aspects of coastal systems. The objectives of the program are to provide resource managers with remote sensing products that support ecosystem forecasting models requiring salinity and inundation data. Specifically, the proposed work supports the habitat-switching modules in the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) model, which provides scientific evaluation for restoration management.

Forecasting and evaluating patterns of energy development in southwestern Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garman, Steven L.

2015-01-01

The effects of future oil and natural gas development in southwestern Wyoming on wildlife populations are topical to conservation of the sagebrush steppe ecosystem. To aid in understanding these potential effects, the U.S. Geological Survey developed an Energy Footprint simulation model that forecasts the amount and pattern of energy development under different assumptions of development rates and well-drilling methods. The simulated disturbance patterns produced by the footprint model are used to assess the potential effects on wildlife habitat and populations. A goal of this modeling effort is to use measures of energy production (number of simulated wells), well-pad and road-surface disturbance, and potential effects on wildlife to identify build-out designs that minimize the physical and ecological footprint of energy development for different levels of energy production and development costs.

Locking horns with Hawai‘i’s non-native ungulate issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steve

2014-01-01

Conservation and management interests for sustained-yield hunting of non-native ungulates in Hawai‘i have conflicted with the conservation of native biota for several decades. Hawaiian ecosystems evolved in the absence of large mammals and all currently hunted animals in Hawai‘i are non-native species. The best-studied aspects of Hawai‘i’s ungulates have dealt primarily with direct negative effects on native biota in natural areas, but there has been little research in population dynamics for sustained-yield management. Ungulates have been removed from approximately 750 km2 throughout the Hawaiian Islands to protect these natural areas, thereby reducing the amount of land area available for hunting activities and the maintenance of game populations. At the same time, unauthorized introductions of additional wild ungulate species between Hawaiian Islands have recently increased in frequency. The majority of hunting activities are of feral domestic livestock species for subsistence purposes, which typically do not generate sufficient revenue to offset costs of game management. Moreover, bag limits and seasons are generally not determined from biological criteria because harvest reporting is voluntary and game populations are rarely monitored. Consequently, ungulate populations cannot be managed for any particular level of abundance or other objectives. Research and monitoring which emphasize population dynamics and productivity would enable more precisely regulated sustained-yield game management programs and may reduce potential conflicts with the conservation of native biota.

Extraction and Measurement of Multi-Level Parallelism in Productions Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-14

the conflict set (agenda): (RULE.A (RULEB ( MATCHA ) (MATCHB) (ACTA)) (ACTB)) where the MATCH predicates are sets of rules in working memory and the act...ACTAfnMATCHB = 0 ) A ( MATCHA n ACTB = 0 )). The non-interference criteria above is conservative and may not detect all possible paral- lelism, but more

A Nation under Joint Custody: How Conflicting Family Models Divide US Politics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wehling, Eva Elisabeth

2013-01-01

Across the globe and throughout history, politics are regularly divided into "left-leaning" and "right-leaning" camps. Explaining the sources of this conservative-liberal divide has become a major quest in the cognitive and social sciences. Early attempts have focused on self-interest as a possible explanation. However, as the…

Is Management for Golden-winged Warblers and Cerulean Warblers Compatible?

Treesearch

Kenneth V. Rosenberg Paul B. Hamel

2005-01-01

Conservation of species with high Partners in Flight concern scores may suggest management for apparently conflicting habitat needs on a given property or specific site, such as birds requiring early-successional vs. latersuccessional broadleaved forests. Two species of concern with distinctly different habitat needs provide a case study for consideration. Declining...

Traditional Values/Contemporary Pressures: The Conflicting Needs of America's Rural Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunne, Faith

Rural American women number well over 25 million and represent all socio-economic and ethnic classifications, yet they share a conservative orientation towards sex roles and appropriate life styles, characteristic social and geographic isolation, and the dilemma of how to manage the traditional demands of rural culture and the contemporary…

Energy Is the Capacity to Do Work -- Or Is It?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, Nancy

1983-01-01

Discusses the definition of energy found in many high school and college level physics texts, the conflict of that definition with the second law of thermodynamics, and the relation to the concept of the conservation of energy. Suggests not using a definition of energy and provides some alternative strategies. (JM)

Natural enemies: people-wildlife conflicts in anthropological perspective

Treesearch

John Schelhas

2004-01-01

Human relationships with wildlife are complex and multifaceted. It is not uncommon for conservationists, in an effort to raise awareness and build support for biodiversity conservation, to focus on the positive side of human relations with wildlife such as the role of wild species in controlling pests and pollinating crops, sacred and totemic associations, and...

Where can wolves live and how can we live with them?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David

2017-01-01

In the contiguous 48 United States, southern Canada, and in Europe, wolves (Canis lupus) have greatly increased and expanded their range during the past few decades.They are prolific, disperse long distances, readily recolonize new areas where humans allow them, and are difficult to control when populations become established.Because wolves originally lived nearly everywhere throughout North America and Eurasia, and food in the form of wild and domestic prey is abundant there, many conservation-minded people favor wolves inhabiting even more areas.On the other hand, wolves conflict in several ways with rural residents who prefer fewer wolves. This article discusses the recovery of wolves, their benefits and values, the ways in which they conflict with humans, and the potential for their expansion into new areas.It concludes that wolf conservation will best be accomplished by each responsible political entity adaptively prescribing different management strategies for different zones within its purview.Some zones for some periods can support total protection, whereas in others, wolf numbers will have to be reduced to various degrees or removed.

Politics of energy. [Conflict between producing and consuming states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Copulos, M.R.

1978-01-01

Conflict between energy-consuming and energy-producing states is predicted to be the issue of the future rather than the traditional ''guns and butter'' division in Congress. Regional divisions based on energy status have brought together new alliances of moderates and conservatives of opposing parties. A combination of intense lobbying and some serious flaws in the original Carter energy proposals have made it difficult for Congress to develop a satisfactory policy. The National Energy Plan's major flaw, a disregard for developing new energy supplies and a refusal to compromise, resulted in a Senate bill that omitted proposed tax provisions. Policymaking within themore » White House is judged to lack objectivity because of the environmental bias of White House staff, whose positions are viewed as both contradictory and counter-productive. The energy plan could have been withdrawn for revision when its goals were declared to be unattainable in the areas of conservation and reduced imports. The foreign policy implications inherent in a reliance on Persian Gulf oil and in opposition to nuclear fuel reprocessing will affect U.S. leadership in the balance of power.« less

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keitz, J. F.

1982-01-01

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 2 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 2 compares various catagories of flight plans and flight tracking data produced by a simulation system developed for the Federal Aviation Administrations by SRI International. (Flight tracking data simulate actual flight tracks of all aircraft operating at a given time and provide for rerouting of flights as necessary to resolve traffic conflicts.) The comparisons of flight plans on the forecast to flight plans on the verifying analysis confirm Task 1 findings that wind speeds are generally underestimated. Comparisons involving flight tracking data indicate that actual fuel burn is always higher than planned, in either direction, and even when the same weather data set is used. Since the flight tracking model output results in more diversions than is known to be the case, it was concluded that there is an error in the flight tracking algorithm.

Mapping Distribution and Forecasting Invasion of Prosopis juliflora in Ethiopia's Afar Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, A. M.; Wakie, T.; Luizza, M.; Evangelista, P.

2014-12-01

Invasion of non-native species is among the most critical threats to natural ecosystems and economies world-wide. Mesquite (which includes some 45 species) is an invasive deciduous tree which is known to have an array of negative impacts on ecosystems and rural livelihoods in arid and semi-arid regions around the world, dominating millions of hectares of land in Asia, Africa, Australia and the Americas. In Ethiopia, Prosopis juliflora (the only reported mesquite) is the most pervasive plant invader, threatening local livelihoods and the country's unique biodiversity. Due to its rapid spread and persistence, P. juliflora has been ranked as one of the leading threats to traditional land use, exceeded only by drought and conflict. This project utilized NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) data and species distribution modeling to map current infestations of P. juliflora in the Afar region of northeastern Ethiopia, and forecast its suitable habitat across the entire country. This project provided a time and cost-effective strategy for conducting risk assessments of invasive mesquite and subsequent monitoring and mitigation efforts by land managers and local communities.

Successes and challenges from formation to implementation of eleven broad-extent conservation programs.

PubMed

Beever, Erik A; Mattsson, Brady J; Germino, Matthew J; Burg, Max Post Van Der; Bradford, John B; Brunson, Mark W

2014-04-01

Integration of conservation partnerships across geographic, biological, and administrative boundaries is increasingly relevant because drivers of change, such as climate shifts, transcend these boundaries. We explored successes and challenges of established conservation programs that span multiple watersheds and consider both social and ecological concerns. We asked representatives from a diverse set of 11 broad-extent conservation partnerships in 29 countries 17 questions that pertained to launching and maintaining partnerships for broad-extent conservation, specifying ultimate management objectives, and implementation and learning. Partnerships invested more funds in implementing conservation actions than any other aspect of conservation, and a program's context (geographic extent, United States vs. other countries, developed vs. developing nation) appeared to substantially affect program approach. Despite early successes of these organizations and benefits of broad-extent conservation, specific challenges related to uncertainties in scaling up information and to coordination in the face of diverse partner governance structures, conflicting objectives, and vast uncertainties regarding future system dynamics hindered long-term success, as demonstrated by the focal organizations. Engaging stakeholders, developing conservation measures, and implementing adaptive management were dominant challenges. To inform future research on broad-extent conservation, we considered several challenges when we developed detailed questions, such as what qualities of broad-extent partnerships ensure they complement, integrate, and strengthen, rather than replace, local conservation efforts and which adaptive management processes yield actionable conservation strategies that account explicitly for dynamics and uncertainties regarding multiscale governance, environmental conditions, and knowledge of the system? © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

A comparison of three approaches for simulating fine-scale surface winds in support of wildland fire management: Part I. Model formulation and comparison against measurements

Treesearch

Jason M. Forthofer; Bret W. Butler; Natalie S. Wagenbrenner

2014-01-01

For this study three types of wind models have been defined for simulating surface wind flow in support of wildland fire management: (1) a uniform wind field (typically acquired from coarse-resolution (,4 km) weather service forecast models); (2) a newly developed mass-conserving model and (3) a newly developed mass and momentumconserving model (referred to as the...

Evaluation of electrical power alternatives for the Pacific Northwest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This study evaluates the concept of implementation of large-scale energy conservation to reduce end-use demand for electrical energy as an alternative to the need for continued construction of new power plants to meet projected energy requirements for the Pacific Northwest. In particular, the numerical accuracy, economic feasibility, and institutional impact of a conservation-oriented scenario developed by the Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., is assessed, relative to the energy forecast prepared by the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Commission. The results of this study are presented in four detailed sections following an introductory and summary section: Reconstruction and Numerical Evaluation of Alternativemore » Scenario; Economic Analysis; Institutional Impact; and Impact of New National Energy Policy.« less

Economic Benefits, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Reductions, and Water Conservation Benefits from 1,000 Megawatts (MW) of New Wind Power in Maine (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2008-10-01

The U.S. Department of Energy?s Wind Powering America Program is committed to educating state-level policymakers and other stakeholders about the economic, CO2 emissions, and water conservation impacts of wind power. This analysis highlights the expected impacts of 1000 MW of wind power in Maine. Although construction and operation of 1000 MW of wind power is a significant effort, six states have already reached the 1000-MW mark. We forecast the cumulative economic benefits from 1000 MW of development in Maine to be $1.3 billion, annual CO2 reductions are estimated at 2.8 million tons, and annual water savings are 1,387 million gallons.

Economic Benefits, Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions Reductions, and Water Conservation Benefits from 1,000 Megawatts (MW) of New Wind Power in Wisconsin (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2008-10-01

The U.S. Department of Energy?s Wind Powering America Program is committed to educating state-level policymakers and other stakeholders about the economic, CO2 emissions, and water conservation impacts of wind power. This analysis highlights the expected impacts of 1000 MW of wind power in Wisconsin. Although construction and operation of 1000 MW of wind power is a significant effort, six states have already reached the 1000-MW mark. We forecast the cumulative economic benefits from 1000 MW of development in Wisconsin to be $1.1 billion, annual CO2 reductions are estimated at 3.2 million tons, and annual water savings are 1,476 million gallons.

Portrait of a pragmatic conservative: Senator James A. McClure of Idaho and the politics of United States energy and Middle Eastern affairs, 1967--1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods-Davis, Wilma

This dissertation examines the political career of Senator James A. McClure as it relates to United States energy policy and Middle Eastern affairs, 1967-1990 and within the context of the modern (post-World War II) conservative movement. A pragmatic conservative, McClure sought a balance between the extremes of issues, especially as they related to energy and United States foreign policy toward the Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East. More often than not, this quiet senator from Idaho was the voice of reason and moderation, carefully analyzing all sides of the issue before submitting his views on the subject. His approach to energy policy represents his conservative expression of policy, while his approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East demonstrates his moderation, reason, and pragmatism. He called for a national energy plan that would promote domestic production of natural energy resources, energy conservation, and peace in the Middle East. He early warned that if the United States did not develop a comprehensive energy policy, the nation would soon face energy shortages. His cautionary statements went unnoticed until the first energy crisis in 1973 and 1974. Although McClure did not support reliance on imported oil to meet energy demand, he did advocate a change in direction in foreign policy. The United States must take a more even-handed approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict and consider the Arab position too in the historic debate. He continually urged a pro-Israeli congress to rethink its policies in this area. In addition to his senate duties, McClure acted as an unofficial goodwill ambassador to many of the Arab leaders in the Middle East. He made at least nine trips to the Middle East to discuss issues of energy, trade, peace, and war. He developed a working rapport with some Arab leaders, and did much to enhance the United States image in the region. He did this at a time in American history when Congress and the public were slow to consider the Arab position. While some individuals thought McClure pro-Arab, or even anti-Semitic, he was not. He maintained throughout his career that he was neither pro-Arab, nor pro-Israeli, but pro-United States. Senator James A. McClure offered the voice of moderation, pragmatism, and balance in contentious issues both national and international. His reasoned approach to politics provides one model that politicians today could imitate.

Hydro-meteorological evaluation of downscaled global ensemble rainfall forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaborit, Étienne; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Pelletier, Geneviève

2013-04-01

Ensemble rainfall forecasts are of high interest for decision making, as they provide an explicit and dynamic assessment of the uncertainty in the forecast (Ruiz et al. 2009). However, for hydrological forecasting, their low resolution currently limits their use to large watersheds (Maraun et al. 2010). In order to bridge this gap, various implementations of the statistic-stochastic multi-fractal downscaling technique presented by Perica and Foufoula-Georgiou (1996) were compared, bringing Environment Canada's global ensemble rainfall forecasts from a 100 by 70-km resolution down to 6 by 4-km, while increasing each pixel's rainfall variance and preserving its original mean. For comparison purposes, simpler methods were also implemented such as the bi-linear interpolation, which disaggregates global forecasts without modifying their variance. The downscaled meteorological products were evaluated using different scores and diagrams, from both a meteorological and a hydrological view points. The meteorological evaluation was conducted comparing the forecasted rainfall depths against nine days of observed values taken from Québec City rain gauge database. These 9 days present strong precipitation events occurring during the summer of 2009. For the hydrologic evaluation, the hydrological models SWMM5 and (a modified version of) GR4J were implemented on a small 6 km2 urban catchment located in the Québec City region. Ensemble hydrologic forecasts with a time step of 3 hours were then performed over a 3-months period of the summer of 2010 using the original and downscaled ensemble rainfall forecasts. The most important conclusions of this work are that the overall quality of the forecasts was preserved during the disaggregation procedure and that the disaggregated products using this variance-enhancing method were of similar quality than bi-linear interpolation products. However, variance and dispersion of the different members were, of course, much improved for the variance-enhanced products, compared to the bi-linear interpolation, which is a decisive advantage. The disaggregation technique of Perica and Foufoula-Georgiou (1996) hence represents an interesting way of bridging the gap between the meteorological models' resolution and the high degree of spatial precision sometimes required by hydrological models in their precipitation representation. References Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A. M., Chandler, R. E., Kendon, E. J., Widmann, M., Brienen, S., Rust, H. W., Sauter, T., Themeßl, M., Venema, V. K. C., Chun, K. P., Goodess, C. M., Jones, R. G., Onof, C., Vrac, M., and Thiele-Eich, I. 2010. Precipitation downscaling under climate change: recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Reviews of Geophysics, 48 (3): RG3003, [np]. Doi: 10.1029/2009RG000314. Perica, S., and Foufoula-Georgiou, E. 1996. Model for multiscale disaggregation of spatial rainfall based on coupling meteorological and scaling descriptions. Journal Of Geophysical Research, 101(D21): 26347-26361. Ruiz, J., Saulo, C. and Kalnay, E. 2009. Comparison of Methods Used to Generate Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts over South America. Weather and forecasting, 24: 319-336. DOI: 10.1175/2008WAF2007098.1 This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License together with an author copyright. This license does not conflict with the regulations of the Crown Copyright.

Project AProWa: a national view on managing trade-offs between agricultural production and conservation of aquatic ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietzel, Anne; Rahn, Eric; Stamm, Christian

2014-05-01

Swiss agriculture is legally committed to fulfill several, partially conflicting goals such as agricultural production on the one hand and the conservation of natural resources on the other hand. In the context of the research project AProWa ("Agricultural Production and Water"), the relationships between the production aspect and the conservation of aquatic ecosystems is analyzed with a holistic approach. Agricultural production and the protection of water resources have high potential for conflicts: Farmers use ground and surface water to irrigate their fields. On the other hand, drainage systems enable the production on otherwise unfavorably wet soils. These in turn often affect ground water recharge and divert precipitation directly into surface waters, which changes their hydrological regime. Typically, drainage systems also elevate the input of nutrients and pesticides into the water bodies. In general, applied fertilizers, plant protection products, veterinary drugs and phytohormones of cultivated plants are introduced into the ground and surface waters through different processes such as drift, leaching, runoff, preferential flow or erosion. They influence the nutrient cycles and ecological health of aquatic systems. The nutrient and pesticide loss processes themselves can be altered by tillage operations and other agricultural practices. Furthermore, the competition for space can lead to additional conflicts between agriculture and the protection of aquatic ecosystems. For example, channelized or otherwise morphologically changed rivers do not have a natural discharge pattern and are often not suitable for the local flora and fauna; but naturally meandering rivers need space that cannot be used for agriculture. In a highly industrialized and densely populated country like Switzerland, all these potential conflicts are of importance. Although it is typically seen as a water-rich country, local and seasonal overexploitation of rivers through water extraction for irrigation can already be documented. Due to drier summers induced by climate change, this phenomenon is expected to gain more importance in the future. Related to water quantity and quality it is crucial to think about the diverging interests between the supply of the population with national agricultural products and the preservation of the water bodies, their ecological value and their other ecosystem services (e.g. drinking water supply). The project AProWa attempts to elucidate trade-offs of national goals for water protection and agricultural production in Switzerland by involving stakeholders from agricultural administration (Federal Office for Agriculture, FOAG), agricultural research (Agroscope), water research (Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag) and environmental protection (Federal Office for the Environment, FOEN). This is done by applying multi-criteria decision analysis facilitating consensus regarding goals and possible activities and alternatives to reach these goals. This is followed by an evaluation of main conflicts and prioritized research gaps. We present preliminary results from workshops and interdisciplinary discussion groups that encompass an objectives hierarchy reflecting agricultural production and water conservation goals. Furthermore, an inventory of agricultural practices and water protection measures is presented, enabling their evaluation for the provision of agricultural production while sustaining aquatic ecosystems.

Mechanistic understanding of human-wildlife conflict through a novel application of dynamic occupancy models.

PubMed

Goswami, Varun R; Medhi, Kamal; Nichols, James D; Oli, Madan K

2015-08-01

Crop and livestock depredation by wildlife is a primary driver of human-wildlife conflict, a problem that threatens the coexistence of people and wildlife globally. Understanding mechanisms that underlie depredation patterns holds the key to mitigating conflicts across time and space. However, most studies do not consider imperfect detection and reporting of conflicts, which may lead to incorrect inference regarding its spatiotemporal drivers. We applied dynamic occupancy models to elephant crop depredation data from India between 2005 and 2011 to estimate crop depredation occurrence and model its underlying dynamics as a function of spatiotemporal covariates while accounting for imperfect detection of conflicts. The probability of detecting conflicts was consistently <1.0 and was negatively influenced by distance to roads and elevation gradient, averaging 0.08-0.56 across primary periods (distinct agricultural seasons within each year). The probability of crop depredation occurrence ranged from 0.29 (SE 0.09) to 0.96 (SE 0.04). The probability that sites raided by elephants in primary period t would not be raided in primary period t + 1 varied with elevation gradient in different seasons and was influenced negatively by mean rainfall and village density and positively by distance to forests. Negative effects of rainfall variation and distance to forests best explained variation in the probability that sites not raided by elephants in primary period t would be raided in primary period t + 1. With our novel application of occupancy models, we teased apart the spatiotemporal drivers of conflicts from factors that influence how they are observed, thereby allowing more reliable inference on mechanisms underlying observed conflict patterns. We found that factors associated with increased crop accessibility and availability (e.g., distance to forests and rainfall patterns) were key drivers of elephant crop depredation dynamics. Such an understanding is essential for rigorous prediction of future conflicts, a critical requirement for effective conflict management in the context of increasing human-wildlife interactions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Aquaculture expansion in Brazilian freshwaters against the Aichi Biodiversity Targets.

PubMed

Lima Junior, Dilermando Pereira; Magalhães, André Lincoln Barroso; Pelicice, Fernando Mayer; Vitule, Jean Ricardo Simões; Azevedo-Santos, Valter M; Orsi, Mário Luís; Simberloff, Daniel; Agostinho, Angelo Antônio

2018-05-01

The Convention on Biological Diversity proposed the Aichi Biodiversity Targets to improve conservation policies and to balance economic development, social welfare, and the maintenance of biodiversity/ecosystem services. Brazil is a signatory of the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and is the most diverse country in terms of freshwater fish, but its national policies have supported the development of unsustainable commercial and ornamental aquaculture, which has led to serious disturbances to inland ecosystems and natural resources. We analyzed the development of Brazilian aquaculture to show how current aquaculture expansion conflicts with all 20 Aichi Targets. This case suggests that Brazil and many other megadiverse developing countries will not meet international conservation targets, stressing the need for new strategies, such as the environmental management system, to improve biodiversity conservation.

Going with the flow: using species-discharge relationships to forecast losses in fish biodiversity.

PubMed

Xenopoulos, Marguerite A; Lodge, David M

2006-08-01

In response to the scarcity of tools to make quantitative forecasts of the loss of aquatic species from anthropogenic effects, we present a statistical model that relates fish species richness to river discharge. Fish richness increases logarithmically with discharge, an index of habitat space, similar to a species-area curve in terrestrial systems. We apply the species-discharge model as a forecasting tool to build scenarios of changes in riverine fish richness from climate change, water consumption, and other anthropogenic drivers that reduce river discharge. Using hypothetical reductions in discharges (of magnitudes that have been observed in other rivers), we predict that reductions of 20-90% in discharge would result in losses of 2-38% of the fish species in two biogeographical regions in the United States (Lower Ohio-Upper Mississippi and Southeastern). Additional data on the occurrence of specific species relative to specific discharge regimes suggests that fishes found exclusively in high discharge environments (e.g., Shovelnose sturgeon) would be most vulnerable to reductions in discharge. Lag times in species extinctions after discharge reduction provide a window of opportunity for conservation efforts. Applications of the species-discharge model can help prioritize such management efforts among species and rivers.

Myanmar Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Monitor, Map, and Analyze Mangrove Forests in Myanmar for Enhanced Conservation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weber, Samuel J.; Keddell, Louis; Kemal, Mohammed

2014-01-01

Mangroves supply many essential environmental amenities, such as preventing soil erosion, filtering water pollution, and protecting shorelines from harmful waves, floods, storms and winds. The Mangroves in Myanmar not only provide citizens with a food source, but they also offer firewood, charcoal, and construction materials. The depletion of mangroves is threatening more than the biodiversity however; Myanmar's fiscal livelihood is also in harm's way. Mangroves are valued at $100,000 to $277,000 per square kilometer and if managed in a sustainable fashion, can infuse constant income to the emerging Myanmarese economy. This study analyzed three coastline regions, the Ayeyarwady Delta, Rakhine and Tanintharyi, and mapped the spatial extent of mangrove forest during the dry season in 2000 and 2013. The classifications were derived from Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operation Land Imager (OLI) imagery, as well as the Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) digital elevation model information. This data was atmospherically corrected, mosaicked, masked and classified in ENVI, followed by ArcGIS to perform raster calculations and create final products. Forest degradation collected from 2000 to 2013 was later used to forecast the density and health of Mangroves in the year 2030. These results were subsequently presented to project partners Dr. Peter Leimgruber and Ellen Aiken at the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute in Front Royal, VA. After the presentation of the project to the partners, these organizations formally passed on to the Myanmar Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Forestry for policy makers and forest managers to utilize in order to protect the Myanmar mangrove ecosystem while sustaining a healthy economy.

Predicting Hotspots of Human-Elephant Conflict to Inform Mitigation Strategies in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China.

PubMed

Chen, Ying; Marino, Jorgelina; Chen, Yong; Tao, Qing; Sullivan, Casey D; Shi, Kun; Macdonald, David W

2016-01-01

Research on the spatial patterns of human-wildlife conflict is fundamental to understanding the mechanisms underlying it and to identifying opportunities for mitigation. In the state of Xishuangbanna, containing China's largest tropical forest, an imbalance between nature conservation and economic development has led to increasing conflicts between humans and Asian elephants (Elephas maximus), as both elephant numbers and conversion of habitable land to rubber plantations have increased over the last several decades. We analyzed government data on the compensation costs of elephant-caused damage in Xishuangbanna between 2008 and 2012 to understand the spatial and temporal patterns of conflict, in terms of their occurrence, frequency and distribution. More than 18,261 incidents were reported, including episodes involving damage to rubber trees (n = 10,999), damage to crops such as paddy, upland rice, corn, bananas and sugarcane (n = 11,020), property loss (n = 689) and attacks on humans (n = 19). The conflict data reconfirmed the presence of elephants in areas which have lacked records since the late 1990s. Zero Altered Negative Binomial models revealed that the risk of damage to crops and plantations increased with proximity to protected areas, increasing distance from roads, and lower settlement density. The patterns were constant across seasons and types of crop damaged. Damage to rubber trees was essentially incidental as elephants searched for crops to eat. A predictive map of risks revealed hotspots of conflict within and around protected areas, the last refuges for elephants in the region, and along habitat corridors connecting them. Additionally, we analyzed how mitigation efforts can best diminish the risk of conflict while minimizing financial costs and adverse biological impacts. Our analytical approach can be adopted, adjusted and expanded to other areas with historical records of human-wildlife conflict.

Enviro-HIRLAM online integrated meteorology-chemistry modelling system: strategy, methodology, developments and applications (v7.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, Alexander; Smith Korsholm, Ulrik; Nuterman, Roman; Mahura, Alexander; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Hansen Sass, Bent; Rasmussen, Alix; Zakey, Ashraf; Kaas, Eigil; Kurganskiy, Alexander; Sørensen, Brian; González-Aparicio, Iratxe

2017-08-01

The Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model (Enviro-HIRLAM) is developed as a fully online integrated numerical weather prediction (NWP) and atmospheric chemical transport (ACT) model for research and forecasting of joint meteorological, chemical and biological weather. The integrated modelling system is developed by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) in collaboration with several European universities. It is the baseline system in the HIRLAM Chemical Branch and used in several countries and different applications. The development was initiated at DMI more than 15 years ago. The model is based on the HIRLAM NWP model with online integrated pollutant transport and dispersion, chemistry, aerosol dynamics, deposition and atmospheric composition feedbacks. To make the model suitable for chemical weather forecasting in urban areas, the meteorological part was improved by implementation of urban parameterisations. The dynamical core was improved by implementing a locally mass-conserving semi-Lagrangian numerical advection scheme, which improves forecast accuracy and model performance. The current version (7.2), in comparison with previous versions, has a more advanced and cost-efficient chemistry, aerosol multi-compound approach, aerosol feedbacks (direct and semi-direct) on radiation and (first and second indirect effects) on cloud microphysics. Since 2004, the Enviro-HIRLAM has been used for different studies, including operational pollen forecasting for Denmark since 2009 and operational forecasting atmospheric composition with downscaling for China since 2017. Following the main research and development strategy, further model developments will be extended towards the new NWP platform - HARMONIE. Different aspects of online coupling methodology, research strategy and possible applications of the modelling system, and fit-for-purpose model configurations for the meteorological and air quality communities are discussed.

Avoiding the ensemble decorrelation problem using member-by-member post-processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2014-05-01

Forecast calibration or post-processing has become a standard tool in atmospheric and climatological science due to the presence of systematic initial condition and model errors. For ensemble forecasts the most competitive methods derive from the assumption of a fixed ensemble distribution. However, when independently applying such 'statistical' methods at different locations, lead times or for multiple variables the correlation structure for individual ensemble members is destroyed. Instead of reastablishing the correlation structure as in Schefzik et al. (2013) we instead propose a calibration method that avoids such problem by correcting each ensemble member individually. Moreover, we analyse the fundamental mechanisms by which the probabilistic ensemble skill can be enhanced. In terms of continuous ranked probability score, our member-by-member approach amounts to skill gain that extends for lead times far beyond the error doubling time and which is as good as the one of the most competitive statistical approach, non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (Gneiting et al. 2005). Besides the conservation of correlation structure, additional benefits arise including the fact that higher-order ensemble moments like kurtosis and skewness are inherited from the uncorrected forecasts. Our detailed analysis is performed in the context of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and different simple models but the results extent succesfully to the ensemble forecast of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem, 2013, 2014) . References [1] Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A., Goldman, T., 2005: Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation. Mon. Weather Rev. 133, 1098-1118. [2] Schefzik, R., T.L. Thorarinsdottir, and T. Gneiting, 2013: Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Simulation Models Using Ensemble Copula Coupling. To appear in Statistical Science 28. [3] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2013: Reliable probabilities through statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts. Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems 2012, Springer proceedings on complexity, XVI, p. 347-352. [4] Van Schaeybroeck, B., and S. Vannitsem, 2014: Ensemble post-processing using member-by-member approaches: theoretical aspects, under review.

Successes and challenges from formation to implementation of eleven broad-extent conservation programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik A.; Bradford, John B.; Germino, Matthew J.; Mattsson, Brady J.; Post van der Burg, Max; Brunson, Mark

2014-01-01

Integration of conservation partnerships across geographic, biological, and administrative boundaries is increasingly relevant because drivers of change, such as climate shifts, transcend these boundaries. We explored successes and challenges of established conservation programs that span multiple watersheds and consider both social and ecological concerns. We asked representatives from a diverse set of 11 broadextent conservation partnerships in 29 countries 17 questions that pertained to launching and maintaining partnerships for broad-extent conservation, specifying ultimate management objectives, and implementation and learning. Partnerships invested more funds in implementing conservation actions than any other aspect of conservation, and a program’s context (geographic extent, United States vs. other countries, developed vs. developing nation) appeared to substantially affect program approach. Despite early successes of these organizations and benefits of broad-extent conservation, specific challenges related to uncertainties in scaling up information and to coordination in the face of diverse partner governance structures, conflicting objectives, and vast uncertainties regarding future system dynamics hindered long-term success, as demonstrated by the focal organizations. Engaging stakeholders, developing conservation measures, and implementing adaptive management were dominant challenges. To inform future research on broad-extent conservation, we considered several challenges when we developed detailed questions, such as what qualities of broad-extent partnerships ensure they complement, integrate, and strengthen, rather than replace, local conservation efforts and which adaptive management processes yield actionable conservation strategies that account explicitly for dynamics and uncertainties regarding multiscale governance, environmental conditions, and knowledge of the system?

Impacts of rural development on Yellowstone wildlife: linking grizzly bear Ursus arctos demographics with projected residential growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Charles C.; Gude, Patricia H.; Landenburger, Lisa; Haroldson, Mark A.; Podruzny, Shannon

2012-01-01

Exurban development is consuming wildlife habitat within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem with potential consequences to the long-term conservation of grizzly bears Ursus arctos. We assessed the impacts of alternative future land-use scenarios by linking an existing regression-based simulation model predicting rural development with a spatially explicit model that predicted bear survival. Using demographic criteria that predict population trajectory, we portioned habitats into either source or sink, and projected the loss of source habitat associated with four different build out (new home construction) scenarios through 2020. Under boom growth, we predicted that 12 km2 of source habitat were converted to sink habitat within the Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone (RZ), 189 km2 were converted within the current distribution of grizzly bears outside of the RZ, and 289 km2 were converted in the area outside the RZ identified as suitable grizzly bear habitat. Our findings showed that extremely low densities of residential development created sink habitats. We suggest that tools, such as those outlined in this article, in addition to zoning and subdivision regulation may prove more practical, and the most effective means of retaining large areas of undeveloped land and conserving grizzly bear source habitat will likely require a landscape-scale approach. We recommend a focus on land conservation efforts that retain open space (easements, purchases and trades) coupled with the implementation of ‘bear community programmes’ on an ecosystem wide basis in an effort to minimize human-bear conflicts, minimize management-related bear mortalities associated with preventable conflicts and to safeguard human communities. Our approach has application to other species and areas, and it has illustrated how spatially explicit demographic models can be combined with models predicting land-use change to help focus conservation priorities.

Domestic Dogs in Rural Communities around Protected Areas: Conservation Problem or Conflict Solution?

PubMed Central

Sepúlveda, Maximiliano A.; Singer, Randall S.; Silva-Rodríguez, Eduardo; Stowhas, Paulina; Pelican, Katharine

2014-01-01

Although domestic dogs play many important roles in rural households, they can also be an important threat to the conservation of wild vertebrates due to predation, competition and transmission of infectious diseases. An increasing number of studies have addressed the impact of dogs on wildlife but have tended to ignore the motivations and attitudes of the humans who keep these dogs and how the function of dogs might influence dog-wildlife interactions. To determine whether the function of domestic dogs in rural communities influences their interactions with wildlife, we conducted surveys in rural areas surrounding protected lands in the Valdivian Temperate Forests of Chile. Sixty percent of farm animal owners reported the use of dogs as one of the primary means of protecting livestock from predators. The probability of dog–wild carnivore interactions was significantly associated with the raising of poultry. In contrast, dog–wild prey interactions were not associated with livestock presence but had a significant association with poor quality diet as observed in previous studies. Dog owners reported that they actively encouraged the dogs to chase off predators, accounting for 25–75% of the dog–wild carnivore interactions observed, depending on the predator species. Humans controlled the dog population by killing pups and unwanted individuals resulting in few additions to the dog population through breeding; the importation of predominantly male dogs from urban areas resulted in a sex ratios highly dominated by males. These results indicate that dog interactions with wildlife are related to the role of the dog in the household and are directly influenced by their owners. To avoid conflict with local communities in conservation areas, it is important to develop strategies for managing dogs that balance conservation needs with the roles that dogs play in these rural households. PMID:24465930

Balancing Conservation with National Development: A Socio-Economic Case Study of the Alternatives to the Serengeti Road.

PubMed

Hopcraft, J Grant C; Bigurube, Gerald; Lembeli, James Daudi; Borner, Markus

2015-01-01

Developing countries often have rich natural resources but poor infrastructure to capitalize on them, which leads to significant challenges in terms of balancing poverty alleviation with conservation. The underlying premise in development strategies is to increase the socio-economic welfare of the people while simultaneously ensuring environmental sustainability, however these objectives are often in direct conflict. National progress is dependent on developing infrastructure such as effective transportation networks, however roads can be ecologically catastrophic in terms of disrupting habitat connectivity and facilitating illegal activity. How can national development and conservation be balanced? The proposed Serengeti road epitomizes the conflict between poverty alleviation on one hand, and the conservation of a critical ecosystem on the other. We use the Serengeti as an exemplar case-study in which the relative economic and social benefits of a road can be assessed against the ecological impacts. Specifically, we compare three possible transportation routes and ask which route maximizes the socio-economic returns for the people while minimizing the ecological costs. The findings suggest that one route in particular that circumnavigates the Serengeti links the greatest number of small and medium sized entrepreneurial businesses to the largest labour force in the region. Furthermore, this route connects the most children to schools, provisions the greatest access to hospitals, and opens the most fertile crop and livestock production areas, and does not compromise the ecology and tourism revenue of the Serengeti. This route would improve Tanzania's food security and self-reliance and would facilitate future infrastructure development which would not be possible if the road were to pass through the Serengeti. This case study provides a compelling example of how a detailed spatial analysis can balance the national objectives of poverty alleviation while maintaining ecological integrity.

Domestic dogs in rural communities around protected areas: conservation problem or conflict solution?

PubMed

Sepúlveda, Maximiliano A; Singer, Randall S; Silva-Rodríguez, Eduardo; Stowhas, Paulina; Pelican, Katharine

2014-01-01

Although domestic dogs play many important roles in rural households, they can also be an important threat to the conservation of wild vertebrates due to predation, competition and transmission of infectious diseases. An increasing number of studies have addressed the impact of dogs on wildlife but have tended to ignore the motivations and attitudes of the humans who keep these dogs and how the function of dogs might influence dog-wildlife interactions. To determine whether the function of domestic dogs in rural communities influences their interactions with wildlife, we conducted surveys in rural areas surrounding protected lands in the Valdivian Temperate Forests of Chile. Sixty percent of farm animal owners reported the use of dogs as one of the primary means of protecting livestock from predators. The probability of dog-wild carnivore interactions was significantly associated with the raising of poultry. In contrast, dog-wild prey interactions were not associated with livestock presence but had a significant association with poor quality diet as observed in previous studies. Dog owners reported that they actively encouraged the dogs to chase off predators, accounting for 25-75% of the dog-wild carnivore interactions observed, depending on the predator species. Humans controlled the dog population by killing pups and unwanted individuals resulting in few additions to the dog population through breeding; the importation of predominantly male dogs from urban areas resulted in a sex ratios highly dominated by males. These results indicate that dog interactions with wildlife are related to the role of the dog in the household and are directly influenced by their owners. To avoid conflict with local communities in conservation areas, it is important to develop strategies for managing dogs that balance conservation needs with the roles that dogs play in these rural households.

Balancing Conservation with National Development: A Socio-Economic Case Study of the Alternatives to the Serengeti Road

PubMed Central

Hopcraft, J. Grant C.; Bigurube, Gerald; Lembeli, James Daudi; Borner, Markus

2015-01-01

Developing countries often have rich natural resources but poor infrastructure to capitalize on them, which leads to significant challenges in terms of balancing poverty alleviation with conservation. The underlying premise in development strategies is to increase the socio-economic welfare of the people while simultaneously ensuring environmental sustainability, however these objectives are often in direct conflict. National progress is dependent on developing infrastructure such as effective transportation networks, however roads can be ecologically catastrophic in terms of disrupting habitat connectivity and facilitating illegal activity. How can national development and conservation be balanced? The proposed Serengeti road epitomizes the conflict between poverty alleviation on one hand, and the conservation of a critical ecosystem on the other. We use the Serengeti as an exemplar case-study in which the relative economic and social benefits of a road can be assessed against the ecological impacts. Specifically, we compare three possible transportation routes and ask which route maximizes the socio-economic returns for the people while minimizing the ecological costs. The findings suggest that one route in particular that circumnavigates the Serengeti links the greatest number of small and medium sized entrepreneurial businesses to the largest labour force in the region. Furthermore, this route connects the most children to schools, provisions the greatest access to hospitals, and opens the most fertile crop and livestock production areas, and does not compromise the ecology and tourism revenue of the Serengeti. This route would improve Tanzania’s food security and self-reliance and would facilitate future infrastructure development which would not be possible if the road were to pass through the Serengeti. This case study provides a compelling example of how a detailed spatial analysis can balance the national objectives of poverty alleviation while maintaining ecological integrity. PMID:26200107

Using species distribution models to define nesting habitat of the eastern metapopulation of double-crested cormorants.

PubMed

Sheehan, Kate L; Esswein, Samuel T; Dorr, Brian S; Yarrow, Greg K; Johnson, Ron J

2017-01-01

When organisms with similar phenotypes have conflicting management and conservation initiatives, approaches are needed to differentiate among subpopulations or discrete groups. For example, the eastern metapopulation of the double-crested cormorant ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) has a migratory phenotype that is culled because they are viewed as a threat to commercial and natural resources, whereas resident birds are targeted for conservation. Understanding the distinct breeding habitats of resident versus migratory cormorants would aid in identification and management decisions. Here, we use species distribution models (SDM: Maxent) of cormorant nesting habitat to examine the eastern P. auritus metapopulation and the predicted breeding sites of its phenotypes. We then estimate the phenotypic identity of breeding colonies of cormorants where management plans are being developed. We transferred SDMs trained on data from resident bird colonies in Florida and migratory bird colonies in Minnesota to South Carolina in an effort to identify the phenotype of breeding cormorants there based on the local landscape characteristics. Nesting habitat characteristics of cormorant colonies in South Carolina more closely resembled those of the Florida phenotype than those of birds of the Minnesota phenotype. The presence of the resident phenotype in summer suggests that migratory and resident cormorants will co-occur in South Carolina in winter. Thus, there is an opportunity for separate management strategies for the two phenotypes in that state. We found differences in nesting habitat characteristics that could be used to refine management strategies and reduce human conflicts with abundant winter migrants and, at the same time, conserve less common colonies of resident cormorants. The models we use here show potential for advancing the study of geographically overlapping phenotypes with differing conservation and management priorities.

Extension and Validation of Research on Acquisition and Retention of Cognitive versus Perceptually Oriented Training Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-06-01

Conservative/Experimenting V2d Q2 Group-dependent/Sel f-sufficient V29 Q3 Undisciplined Self-conflict/ Controlled V30 Q4 Relaxed/Tense V4C GZPS Guilford...d7 O 6.5738 2. 1327 61 V2h 02 5.0984 2.2709 61 V29 03 7.3164 1.9958 61 V00 04 4 .98 3o 2.0453 61 V40 GZpS 33.1475 10.0?27 61 Isr 1 95574 5.3899 61 114...sufficient V29 Q3 Undisciplined Self-conflict/ Controlled V30 Q4 Relaxed/Tense V40 GZPS Guilford Zimmerman Perceptual Speed ZR6 ZOVERALL Standardized

Wildfire and management of forests and native fishes: Conflict or opportunity for convergent solutions?

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; Paul F. Hessburg; Charles Luce; Matthew R. Dare

2010-01-01

Wildfire is a critical land management issue in the western United States. Efforts to mitigate the effects of altered fire regimes have led to debate over ecological restoration versus species conservation framed at the conjuncture of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their respective management regimes. Fire-related management activities may disrupt watershed...

Workshop on the Transition to a Conserver Society: The Role of the Media (March 21-23, 1974)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porter, Arthur

In March of 1974, a conference was held to advise the Ontario Educational Communications Authority (OECA) on the nature of future global problems (energy use, population growth, economic and technological expansion). Participants were asked to examine conflicting interpretations of these problems and the assumptions on which the viewpoints are…

Nonsexual Touch, Self-Disclosure, and Friendship in the Therapeutic Setting: A Discussion of Boundary Issues.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boller, Janet L.; Lee, Sandra S.

Conflict over appropriate treatment boundaries has been an issue since the time of Freud. To better understand these boundaries, some traditional, humanistic and feminist models which range from conservative, strict boundaries to more liberal or relaxed boundaries are considered here. The ethical considerations and implications of nonsexual touch,…

Rookery Bay: Can Conservation and Development Coexist? Instructional Activities Series IA/S-5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bright, Keith L.; Lambert, Jack R.

This activity is one of a series of 17 teacher-developed instructional activities for geography at the secondary grade level described in SO 009 140. This activity investigates land-use conflict between conservationists and developers in Florida, through dialogue and discussion approaches. A dialogue between two main characters is Presented which…

Science and ecosystem management in the interior Columbia basin.

Treesearch

Richard W. Haynes; Thomas M. Quigley; Jodi L. Clifford; Rebecca A. Gravenmier

2001-01-01

Significant changes over the past 150 years in aquatic, terrestrial, landscape, and socioeconomic systems have altered biophysical systems in the interior Columbia basin. Changes and conflict in public policy concerns, such as resource use vs. restoration vs. conservation are especially evident in more than 34% of total forest and rangeland in the United States that...

Multi-resource and multi-scale approaches for meeting the challenge of managing multiple species

Treesearch

Frank R. Thompson; Deborah M. Finch; John R. Probst; Glen D. Gaines; David S. Dobkin

1999-01-01

The large number of Neotropical migratory bird (NTMB) species and their diverse habitat requirements create conflicts and difficulties for land managers and conservationists. We provide examples of assessments or conservation efforts that attempt to address the problem of managing for multiple NTMB species. We advocate approaches at a variety of spatial and geographic...

Irrigated agriculture and wildlife conservation: conflict on a global scale

Treesearch

A. Dennis Lemly; Richard T. Kingsford; Julian R. Thompson

2000-01-01

The demand for water to support irrigated agriculture has led to the demise of wetlands and their associated wildlife for decades. This thirst for water is so pervasive that many wetlands considered to be hemispheric reserves for waterbirds have been heavily affected, for example, the California and Nevada wetlands in North America, the Macquarie Marshes in Australia,...

Constructing nature as constructing science: expertise, activist science, and public conflict in the Chicago wilderness

Treesearch

Reid M. Helford

2000-01-01

In April 1996 an exciting new project was announced, an unprecedented conservation undertaking in one of the nation's most densely populated regions. Chicago Wilderness is a collaborative effort among the more than 90 organizations that make up the Chicago Region Biodiversity Council (CRBC) to protect, restore, and manage the region's natural landscapes...

Study on SOC wavelet analysis for LiFePO4 battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xuepeng; Zhao, Dongmei

2017-08-01

Improving the prediction accuracy of SOC can reduce the complexity of the conservative and control strategy of the strategy such as the scheduling, optimization and planning of LiFePO4 battery system. Based on the analysis of the relationship between the SOC historical data and the external stress factors, the SOC Estimation-Correction Prediction Model based on wavelet analysis is established. Using wavelet neural network prediction model is of high precision to achieve forecast link, external stress measured data is used to update parameters estimation in the model, implement correction link, makes the forecast model can adapt to the LiFePO4 battery under rated condition of charge and discharge the operating point of the variable operation area. The test results show that the method can obtain higher precision prediction model when the input and output of LiFePO4 battery are changed frequently.

Improving Energy Use Forecast for Campus Micro-grids using Indirect Indicators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aman, Saima; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

2011-12-11

The rising global demand for energy is best addressed by adopting and promoting sustainable methods of power consumption. We employ an informatics approach towards forecasting the energy consumption patterns in a university campus micro-grid which can be used for energy use planning and conservation. We use novel indirect indicators of energy that are commonly available to train regression tree models that can predict campus and building energy use for coarse (daily) and fine (15-min) time intervals, utilizing 3 years of sensor data collected at 15min intervals from 170 smart power meters. We analyze the impact of individual features used inmore » the models to identify the ones best suited for the application. Our models show a high degree of accuracy with CV-RMSE errors ranging from 7.45% to 19.32%, and a reduction in error from baseline models by up to 53%.« less

Natural turbidity variability and weather forecasts in risk management of anthropogenic sediment discharge near sensitive environments.

PubMed

Orpin, Alan R; Ridd, Peter V; Thomas, Séverine; Anthony, Kenneth R N; Marshall, Paul; Oliver, Jamie

2004-10-01

Coastal development activities can cause local increases in turbidity and sedimentation. This study characterises the spatial and temporal variability of turbidity near an inshore fringing coral reef in the central Great Barrier Reef, under a wide range of natural conditions. Based on the observed natural variability, we outline a risk management scheme to minimise the impact of construction-related turbidity increases. Comparison of control and impact sites proved unusable for real-time management of turbidity risks. Instead, we suggest using one standard deviation from ambient conditions as a possible conservative upper limit of an acceptable projected increase in turbidity. In addition, the use of regional weather forecast as a proxy for natural turbidity is assessed. This approach is simple and cheap but also has limitations in very rough conditions, when an anthropogenic turbidity increase could prove fatal to corals that are already stressed under natural conditions.

Software reliability: Additional investigations into modeling with replicated experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagel, P. M.; Schotz, F. M.; Skirvan, J. A.

1984-01-01

The effects of programmer experience level, different program usage distributions, and programming languages are explored. All these factors affect performance, and some tentative relational hypotheses are presented. An analytic framework for replicated and non-replicated (traditional) software experiments is presented. A method of obtaining an upper bound on the error rate of the next error is proposed. The method was validated empirically by comparing forecasts with actual data. In all 14 cases the bound exceeded the observed parameter, albeit somewhat conservatively. Two other forecasting methods are proposed and compared to observed results. Although demonstrated relative to this framework that stages are neither independent nor exponentially distributed, empirical estimates show that the exponential assumption is nearly valid for all but the extreme tails of the distribution. Except for the dependence in the stage probabilities, Cox's model approximates to a degree what is being observed.

Advanced Intelligent System Application to Load Forecasting and Control for Hybrid Electric Bus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Momoh, James; Chattopadhyay, Deb; Elfayoumy, Mahmoud

1996-01-01

The primary motivation for this research emanates from providing a decision support system to the electric bus operators in the municipal and urban localities which will guide the operators to maintain an optimal compromise among the noise level, pollution level, fuel usage etc. This study is backed up by our previous studies on study of battery characteristics, permanent magnet DC motor studies and electric traction motor size studies completed in the first year. The operator of the Hybrid Electric Car must determine optimal power management schedule to meet a given load demand for different weather and road conditions. The decision support system for the bus operator comprises three sub-tasks viz. forecast of the electrical load for the route to be traversed divided into specified time periods (few minutes); deriving an optimal 'plan' or 'preschedule' based on the load forecast for the entire time-horizon (i.e., for all time periods) ahead of time; and finally employing corrective control action to monitor and modify the optimal plan in real-time. A fully connected artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for forecasting the kW requirement for hybrid electric bus based on inputs like climatic conditions, passenger load, road inclination, etc. The ANN model is trained using back-propagation algorithm employing improved optimization techniques like projected Lagrangian technique. The pre-scheduler is based on a Goal-Programming (GP) optimization model with noise, pollution and fuel usage as the three objectives. GP has the capability of analyzing the trade-off among the conflicting objectives and arriving at the optimal activity levels, e.g., throttle settings. The corrective control action or the third sub-task is formulated as an optimal control model with inputs from the real-time data base as well as the GP model to minimize the error (or deviation) from the optimal plan. These three activities linked with the ANN forecaster proving the output to the GP model which in turn produces the pre-schedule of the optimal control model. Some preliminary results based on a hypothetical test case will be presented for the load forecasting module. The computer codes for the three modules will be made available fe adoption by bus operating agencies. Sample results will be provided using these models. The software will be a useful tool for supporting the control systems for the Electric Bus project of NASA.

A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

2017-04-01

Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land surface model-flood inundation model to produce hydrological variables and indices at daily, 0.25-degree resolution, globally. The system is updated in near real-time (< 2 days) using satellite precipitation and weather model data, and produces forecasts at short-term (out to 7 days) based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) and seasonal (up to 6 months) based on U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts. Climate change projections are based on bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate data that is used to force the hydrological model. Example products from the system include real-time and forecast drought indices for precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow, and flood magnitude and extent indices. The model outputs are complemented by satellite based products and indices based on satellite data for vegetation health (MODIS NDVI) and soil moisture (SMAP). We show examples of the validation of the system at regional scales, including how local information can significantly improve predictions, and examples of how the system can be used to understand large-scale water resource issues, and in real-world contexts for early warning, decision making and planning.

Information fusion for the Gray Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenstermacher, Laurie

2016-05-01

United States Special Operations Command (SOCOM) recently published a white paper describing the "Gray Zone", security challenges characterized by "ambiguity about the nature of the conflict, opacity of the parties involved…competitive interactions among and within state and non-state actors that fall between the traditional war and peace duality."1 Ambiguity and related uncertainty about actors, situations, relationships, and intent require new approaches to information collection, processing and fusion. General Votel, the current SOCOM commander, during a recent speech on "Operating in the Gray Zone" emphasized that it would be important to get left of the next crises and stated emphatically, "to do that we must understand the Human Domain."2 This understanding of the human domain must come from making meaning based on different perspectives, including the "emic" or first person/participant and "etic" or third person/observer perspectives. Much of the information currently collected and processed is etic. Incorporation and fusion with the emic perspective enables forecasting of behaviors/events and provides context for etic information (e.g., video).3 Gray zone challenges are perspective-dependent; for example, the conflict in Ukraine is interpreted quite differently by Russia, the US and Ukraine. Russia views it as war, necessitating aggressive action, the US views it as a security issue best dealt with by economic sanctions and diplomacy and the Ukraine views it as a threat to its sovereignty.4 General Otto in the Air Force ISR 2023 vision document stated that Air Force ISR is needed to anticipate strategic surprise.5 Anticipatory analysis enabling getting left of a crisis inherently requires a greater focus on information sources that elucidate the human environment as well as new methods that elucidate not only the "who's" and "what's", but the "how's and "why's," extracting features and/or patterns and subtle cues useful for forecasting behaviors and events; for example discourse patterns related to social identity and integrative complexity.6 AFRL has been conducting research to enable analysts to understand the "emic" perspective based on discourse analysis methods and/or text analytics.7 Previous results demonstrated the value of fusion of emic and etic information in terms of improved accuracy (from 39% to 86%) in forecasting violent events.8 This paper will describe new work to extend this to anticipatory analysis in the gray zone.

Graduate student's guide to necessary skills for nonacademic conservation careers.

PubMed

Blickley, Jessica L; Deiner, Kristy; Garbach, Kelly; Lacher, Iara; Meek, Mariah H; Porensky, Lauren M; Wilkerson, Marit L; Winford, Eric M; Schwartz, Mark W

2013-02-01

Graduate education programs in conservation science generally focus on disciplinary training and discipline-specific research skills. However, nonacademic conservation professionals often require an additional suite of skills. This discrepancy between academic training and professional needs can make it difficult for graduate students to identify the skills and experiences that will best prepare them for the conservation job market. We analyzed job advertisements for conservation-science positions and interviewed conservation professionals with experience hiring early-career conservation scientists to determine what skills employers of conservation professionals seek; whether the relative importance of skills varies by job sector (government, nonprofit, and private); and how graduate students interested in careers in conservation science might signal competency in key skills to potential employers. In job advertisements, disciplinary, interpersonal, and project-management skills were in the top 5 skills mentioned across all job sectors. Employers' needs for additional skills, like program leadership, conflict resolution and negotiation, and technical and information technology skills, varied across sectors. Our interview results demonstrated that some skills are best signaled to employers via experiences obtained outside thesis or dissertation work. Our findings suggest that graduate students who wish to be competitive in the conservation job market can benefit by gaining skills identified as important to the job sector in which they hope to work and should not necessarily expect to be competent in these skills simply by completing their chosen degree path. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

New horizons. [assessment of technology developed and utilized under various NASA programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

The contribution of space exploration and space related research to the future of man and the accomplishments of the space program are assessed. Topics discussed include: the role of applications satellites in crop surveillance, land use surveys, weather forecasting, education, communications, and pollution monitoring; planetary studies which examine the origin and evolution of the solar system, including dynamic processes that bear directly on earth's environment; and fuel conservation and development of new energy sources.

Conservation planning for imperiled aquatic species in an urbanizing environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wenger, Seth J.; Freeman, Mary C.; Fowler, Laurie A.; Freeman, Byron J.; Peterson, James T.

2010-01-01

As the global area devoted to urban uses grows, an increasing number of freshwater species will face imperilment due to urbanization effects. Management of these impacts on both private and public lands is necessary to ensure species persistence. Such management entails several hallenges: (1) development of a management policy appropriate to the stressors; (2) linking stressor levels to species population attributes; (3) forecasting the effects of alternative management policy decisions on the species, and (4) using adaptive management to adjust the policy in the future. We illustrate how these challenges were addressed under the Etowah Habitat Conservation Plan (Etowah HCP), a management plan for three federally protected fish species in Georgia, USA. The plan involved the creation of a management policy to address the impacts of the greatest stressor, stormwater runoff, as well as other stressors. Models were constructed to link population indices of the three species with a key indicator of stormwater runoff, effective impervious area (EIA). Then, models were applied to projected levels of EIA under full watershed buildout to fine-tune the parameters of the management policy. Forecasting indicated that the most sensitive species, the Etowah darter, was likely to decline by 84% in the absence of the Etowah HCP, but only 23% if the Etowah HCP were implemented. Although there was substantial uncertainty in model predictions, an adaptive management plan was established to incorporate new data and to adjust management policies as necessary.

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

Cautious to a Fault: Self-Protection and the Trajectory of Marital Satisfaction

PubMed Central

Murray, Sandra L.; Holmes, John G.; Derrick, Jaye L.; Harris, Brianna; Griffin, Dale W.; Pinkus, Rebecca T.

2012-01-01

A contextual model of self-protection is proposed to explain when adhering to cautious “if-then” rules in daily interaction erodes marital satisfaction. People can self-protect against partner non-responsiveness by distancing when a partner seems rejecting, promoting a partner’s dependence when feeling unworthy, or by devaluing a partner in the face of costs. The model implies that being less trusting elicits self-protection, and that mismatches between self-protective practices and encountered risk accelerate declines in satisfaction. A longitudinal study of newlyweds revealed that the fit between self-protection practices and risk predicted declines in satisfaction over three years. When people self-protected more initially, satisfaction declined more in low-risk (i.e., low conflict, resilient partner) than high-risk relationships (i.e., high conflict, vulnerable partner). However, when people self-protected less initially, satisfaction declined more in high-risk than low-risk relationships. Process evidence was consistent with moderated mediation: In low-risk relationships only, being less trusting predicted higher levels of self-protective caution that forecast later declines in satisfaction. PMID:25013236

Emerging conservation challenges and prospects in an era of offshore hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation.

PubMed

Kark, Salit; Brokovich, Eran; Mazor, Tessa; Levin, Noam

2015-12-01

Globally, extensive marine areas important for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning are undergoing exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas resources. Such operations are expanding to previously inaccessible deep waters and other frontier regions, while conservation-related legislation and planning is often lacking. Conservation challenges arising from offshore hydrocarbon development are wide-ranging. These challenges include threats to ecosystems and marine species from oil spills, negative impacts on native biodiversity from invasive species colonizing drilling infrastructure, and increased political conflicts that can delay conservation actions. With mounting offshore operations, conservationists need to urgently consider some possible opportunities that could be leveraged for conservation. Leveraging options, as part of multi-billion dollar marine hydrocarbon operations, include the use of facilities and costly equipment of the deep and ultra-deep hydrocarbon industry for deep-sea conservation research and monitoring and establishing new conservation research, practice, and monitoring funds and environmental offsetting schemes. The conservation community, including conservation scientists, should become more involved in the earliest planning and exploration phases and remain involved throughout the operations so as to influence decision making and promote continuous monitoring of biodiversity and ecosystems. A prompt response by conservation professionals to offshore oil and gas developments can mitigate impacts of future decisions and actions of the industry and governments. New environmental decision support tools can be used to explicitly incorporate the impacts of hydrocarbon operations on biodiversity into marine spatial and conservation plans and thus allow for optimum trade-offs among multiple objectives, costs, and risks. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Efficacy of two lion conservation programs in Maasailand, Kenya.

PubMed

Hazzah, Leela; Dolrenry, Stephanie; Naughton-Treves, Lisa; Naughton, Lisa; Edwards, Charles T T; Mwebi, Ogeto; Kearney, Fiachra; Frank, Laurence

2014-06-01

Lion (Panthera leo) populations are in decline throughout most of Africa. The problem is particularly acute in southern Kenya, where Maasai pastoralists have been spearing and poisoning lions at a rate that will ensure near term local extinction. We investigated 2 approaches for improving local tolerance of lions: compensation payments for livestock lost to predators and Lion Guardians, which draws on local cultural values and knowledge to mitigate livestock-carnivore conflict and monitor carnivores. To gauge the overall influence of conservation intervention, we combined both programs into a single conservation treatment variable. Using 8 years of lion killing data, we applied Manski's partial identification approach with bounded assumptions to investigate the effect of conservation treatment on lion killing in 4 contiguous areas. In 3 of the areas, conservation treatment was positively associated with a reduction in lion killing. We then applied a generalized linear model to assess the relative efficacy of the 2 interventions. The model estimated that compensation resulted in an 87-91% drop in the number of lions killed, whereas Lion Guardians (operating in combination with compensation and alone) resulted in a 99% drop in lion killing. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Conflicts between conservative Christian institutions and secular groups in sub-Saharan Africa: Ideological discourses on sexualities, reproduction, and HIV/AIDS

PubMed Central

Mantell, Joanne E.; Correale, Jacqueline; Adams-Skinner, Jessica; Stein, Zena A.

2011-01-01

Religious and secular institutions advocate strategies that represent all points on the continuum to reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS. Drawing on an extensive literature review of studies conducted in sub-Saharan Africa, we focus on those secular institutions that support all effective methods of reducing HIV/AIDS transmission and those conservative religious institutions that support a limited set of prevention methods. We conclude by identifying topics for dialogue between these viewpoints that should facilitate cooperation by expanding the generally acceptable HIV/AIDS prevention methods, and especially the use of condoms. PMID:21834733

Control of avian influenza: philosophy and perspectives on behalf of migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friend, Milton

1992-01-01

Aquatic birds are considered the primary reservoir for influenza A viruses (Nettles et al., 1987).  However, there is little concern about avian influenza among conservation agencies responsible for the welfare of those species.  IN contrast, the poultry industry has great concern about avian influenza and view aquatic birds as a source for infection of poultry flocks.  In some instances, differences in these perspectives created conflict between conservation agencies and the poultry industry.  I speak on behalf of migratory birds, but philosophy and perspectives offered are intended to be helpful to the poultry industry in their efforts to combat avian influenza.

Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate.

PubMed

Mills, Morena; Nicol, Sam; Wells, Jessie A; Lahoz-Monfort, José J; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J M; Runge, Michael C; Possingham, Hugh P; Madden, Eve McDonald

2014-06-01

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Impact of Tactical and Strategic Weather Avoidance on Separation Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Refai, Mohamad S.; Windhorst, Robert

2011-01-01

The ability to keep flights away from weather hazards while maintaining aircraft-to-aircraft separation is critically important. The Advanced Airspace Concept is an automation concept that implements a ground-based strategic conflict resolution algorithm for management of aircraft separation. The impact of dynamic and uncertain weather avoidance on this concept is investigated. A strategic weather rerouting system is integrated with the Advanced Airspace Concept, which also provides a tactical weather avoidance algorithm, in a fast time simulation of the Air Transportation System. Strategic weather rerouting is used to plan routes around weather in the 20 minute to two-hour time horizon. To address forecast uncertainty, flight routes are revised at 15 minute intervals. Tactical weather avoidance is used for short term trajectory adjustments (30 minute planning horizon) that are updated every minute to address any weather conflicts (instances where aircraft are predicted to pass through weather cells) that are left unresolved by strategic weather rerouting. The fast time simulation is used to assess the impact of tactical weather avoidance on the performance of automated conflict resolution as well as the impact of strategic weather rerouting on both conflict resolution and tactical weather avoidance. The results demonstrate that both tactical weather avoidance and strategic weather rerouting increase the algorithm complexity required to find aircraft conflict resolutions. Results also demonstrate that tactical weather avoidance is prone to higher airborne delay than strategic weather rerouting. Adding strategic weather rerouting to tactical weather avoidance reduces total airborne delays for the reported scenario by 18% and reduces the number of remaining weather violations by 13%. Finally, two features are identified that have proven important for strategic weather rerouting to realize these benefits; namely, the ability to revise reroutes and the use of maneuvers that start far ahead of encountering a weather cell when rerouting around weather.

Multiscale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change.

PubMed

Dilt, Thomas E; Weisberg, Peter J; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D; Inman, Richard D; Nussear, Kenneth E; Esque, Todd C

2016-06-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multiscale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods, including graph theory, circuit theory, and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this threatened Californian species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously distributed habitat and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

A Socio-Hydrological Model of the Voluntary Urban Water Conservation Behavior during Droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangwan, N.; Eisma, J. A.; Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.

2016-12-01

Several cities across the globe are increasingly struggling to meet the water demands of their population. By 2050, nearly 160 million urban dwellers are likely to face perennial water shortage due to ever rising population numbers and climate change. As observed once again during recent drought in California, voluntary water conservation is a key approach for managing urban water availability during periods of constrained supply. It relies on behavioral adaptation that is critical for long-term reductions in water use and building drought resilient communities. Strong interdependencies between human group behavior and regional hydrology in this context entail that the two components be coupled together in a socio-hydrology model to fully understand the dynamics of urban water systems. This work proposes a conceptual framework for one such model and simulates the dynamics of a voluntary conservation program in Marin Municipal Water District, California using dynamic systems modeling approach. Through this model, we plan to assess the effects of different social factors (such as social concern and conformist tendencies) and climato-hydrological conditions (viz. storage levels and weather forecast) on the trajectory of a voluntary conservation program. Our preliminary results have indicated several `tipping points' which can be capitalized on by policy makers to boost conservation at low social costs.

Minimizing the cost of keeping options open for conservation in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Morena; Nicol, Samuel; Wells, Jessie A.; Lahoz-Monfort, José J.; Wintle, Brendan; Bode, Michael; Wardrop, Martin; Walshe, Terry; Probert, William J. M.; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; McDonald Madden, Eve

2014-01-01

Policy documents advocate that managers should keep their options open while planning to protect coastal ecosystems from climate-change impacts. However, the actual costs and benefits of maintaining flexibility remain largely unexplored, and alternative approaches for decision making under uncertainty may lead to better joint outcomes for conservation and other societal goals. For example, keeping options open for coastal ecosystems incurs opportunity costs for developers. We devised a decision framework that integrates these costs and benefits with probabilistic forecasts for the extent of sea-level rise to find a balance between coastal ecosystem protection and moderate coastal development. Here, we suggest that instead of keeping their options open managers should incorporate uncertain sea-level rise predictions into a decision-making framework that evaluates the benefits and costs of conservation and development. In our example, based on plausible scenarios for sea-level rise and assuming a risk-neutral decision maker, we found that substantial development could be accommodated with negligible loss of environmental assets. Characterization of the Pareto efficiency of conservation and development outcomes provides valuable insight into the intensity of trade-offs between development and conservation. However, additional work is required to improve understanding of the consequences of alternative spatial plans and the value judgments and risk preferences of decision makers and stakeholders.

Quantifying killing of orangutans and human-orangutan conflict in Kalimantan, Indonesia.

PubMed

Meijaard, Erik; Buchori, Damayanti; Hadiprakarsa, Yokyok; Utami-Atmoko, Sri Suci; Nurcahyo, Anton; Tjiu, Albertus; Prasetyo, Didik; Nardiyono; Christie, Lenny; Ancrenaz, Marc; Abadi, Firman; Antoni, I Nyoman Gede; Armayadi, Dedy; Dinato, Adi; Ella; Gumelar, Pajar; Indrawan, Tito P; Kussaritano; Munajat, Cecep; Priyono, C Wawan Puji; Purwanto, Yadi; Puspitasari, Dewi; Putra, M Syukur Wahyu; Rahmat, Abdi; Ramadani, Harri; Sammy, Jim; Siswanto, Dedi; Syamsuri, Muhammad; Andayani, Noviar; Wu, Huanhuan; Wells, Jessie Anne; Mengersen, Kerrie

2011-01-01

Human-orangutan conflict and hunting are thought to pose a serious threat to orangutan existence in Kalimantan, the Indonesian part of Borneo. No data existed prior to the present study to substantiate these threats. We investigated the rates, spatial distribution and causes of conflict and hunting through an interview-based survey in the orangutan's range in Kalimantan, Indonesia. Between April 2008 and September 2009, we interviewed 6983 respondents in 687 villages to obtain socio-economic information, assess knowledge of local wildlife in general and orangutan encounters specifically, and to query respondents about their knowledge on orangutan conflicts and killing, and relevant laws. This survey revealed estimated killing rates of between 750 and 1800 animals killed in the last year, and between 1950 and 3100 animals killed per year on average within the lifetime of the survey respondents. These killing rates are higher than previously thought and are high enough to pose a serious threat to the continued existence of orangutans in Kalimantan. Importantly, the study contributes to our understanding of the spatial variation in threats, and the underlying causes of those threats, which can be used to facilitate the development of targeted conservation management.

Quantifying Killing of Orangutans and Human-Orangutan Conflict in Kalimantan, Indonesia

PubMed Central

Meijaard, Erik; Buchori, Damayanti; Hadiprakarsa, Yokyok; Utami-Atmoko, Sri Suci; Nurcahyo, Anton; Tjiu, Albertus; Prasetyo, Didik; Nardiyono; Christie, Lenny; Ancrenaz, Marc; Abadi, Firman; Antoni, I Nyoman Gede; Armayadi, Dedy; Dinato, Adi; Ella; Gumelar, Pajar; Indrawan, Tito P.; Kussaritano; Munajat, Cecep; Priyono, C. Wawan Puji; Purwanto, Yadi; Puspitasari, Dewi; Putra, M. Syukur Wahyu; Rahmat, Abdi; Ramadani, Harri; Sammy, Jim; Siswanto, Dedi; Syamsuri, Muhammad; Andayani, Noviar; Wu, Huanhuan; Wells, Jessie Anne; Mengersen, Kerrie

2011-01-01

Human-orangutan conflict and hunting are thought to pose a serious threat to orangutan existence in Kalimantan, the Indonesian part of Borneo. No data existed prior to the present study to substantiate these threats. We investigated the rates, spatial distribution and causes of conflict and hunting through an interview-based survey in the orangutan's range in Kalimantan, Indonesia. Between April 2008 and September 2009, we interviewed 6983 respondents in 687 villages to obtain socio-economic information, assess knowledge of local wildlife in general and orangutan encounters specifically, and to query respondents about their knowledge on orangutan conflicts and killing, and relevant laws. This survey revealed estimated killing rates of between 750 and 1800 animals killed in the last year, and between 1950 and 3100 animals killed per year on average within the lifetime of the survey respondents. These killing rates are higher than previously thought and are high enough to pose a serious threat to the continued existence of orangutans in Kalimantan. Importantly, the study contributes to our understanding of the spatial variation in threats, and the underlying causes of those threats, which can be used to facilitate the development of targeted conservation management. PMID:22096582

Cost/benefit tradeoffs for reducing the energy consumption of the commercial air transportation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kraus, E. F.; Vanabkoude, J. C.

1976-01-01

The fuel saving potential and cost effectiveness of numerous operational and technical options proposed for reducing the fuel consumption of the U.S. commercial airline fleet was examined and compared. The impact of the most promising fuel conserving options on fuel consumption, passenger demand, operating costs and airline profits when implemented in the U.S. domestic and international airline fleets was determined. A forecast estimate was made of the potential fuel savings achievable in the U.S. scheduled air transportation system. Specifically, the means for reducing the jet fuel consumption of the U.S. scheduled airlines in domestic and international passenger operations were investigated. A design analysis was made of two turboprop aircraft as possible fuel conserving derivatives of the DC-9-30.

Remote sensing techniques for conservation and management of natural vegetation ecosystems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Verdesio, J. J.; Dossantos, J. R.

1981-01-01

The importance of using remote sensing techniques, in the visible and near-infrared ranges, for mapping, inventory, conservation and management of natural ecosystems is discussed. Some examples realized in Brazil or other countries are given to evaluate the products from orbital platform (MSS and RBV imagery of LANDSAT) and aerial level (photography) for ecosystems study. The maximum quantitative and qualitative information which can be obtained from each sensor, at different level, are discussed. Based on the developed experiments it is concluded that the remote sensing technique is a useful tool in mapping vegetation units, estimating biomass, forecasting and evaluation of fire damage, disease detection, deforestation mapping and change detection in land-use. In addition, remote sensing techniques can be used in controling implantation and planning natural/artificial regeneration.

EEC focuses new energy budget on solar and conservation R and D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1979-12-17

Solar energy, followed by conservation and geothermal energy, will have top priority for the European Economic Community's (ECC) $142 million energy research budget through 1983. Proposals for the cost-shared projects, of which EEC will pay half, are being accepted by eligible companies and research organizations. Committees for each technology advise the European Commission on which proposals to accept and suggest an appropriate funding level. The EEC also funds demonstrations of promising research to determine economic feasibility. Major emphasis will be placed during the present four-year budget for solar research on photovoltaics. Other projects include a European solar-insolation atlas and solar-heatingmore » manual, advanced batteries, and energy storage systems. Geothermal projects will focus on resource mapping, exploratory drilling, hydrogen production, and energy forecasting. (DCK)« less

A conceptual analysis of the application of tradable permits to biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Wissel, Silvia; Wätzold, Frank

2010-04-01

Tradable permits have been applied in many areas of environmental policy and may be a response to increasing calls for flexible conservation instruments that successfully conserve biodiversity while allowing for economic development. The idea behind applying tradable permits to conservation is that developers wishing to turn land to economic purposes, thereby destroying valuable habitat, may only do so if they submit a permit to the conservation agency showing that habitat of at least the equivalent ecological value is restored elsewhere. The developer himself does not need to carry out the restoration, but may buy a permit from a third party, thus allowing a market to emerge. Nevertheless, the application of tradable permits to biodiversity conservation is a complex issue because destroyed and restored habitats are likely to differ. There may be various trade-offs between the ecological requirements that destroyed and restored habitats be as similar as possible, and the need for a certain level of market activity to have a functioning trading system. The success of tradable permits as an instrument for reconciling the conflicts between economic development and conservation depends on the existence of certain economic, institutional, and ecological preconditions, for example, a functioning institutional framework, sufficient expert knowledge, and adequate monitoring and enforcement mechanisms.

Global priorities for national carnivore conservation under land use change

PubMed Central

Di Minin, Enrico; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke T. B.; Montesino Pouzols, Federico; Toivonen, Tuuli; Verburg, Peter H.; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Petracca, Lisanne; Moilanen, Atte

2016-01-01

Mammalian carnivores have suffered the biggest range contraction among all biodiversity and are particularly vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Therefore, we identified priority areas for the conservation of mammalian carnivores, while accounting for species-specific requirements for connectivity and expected agricultural and urban expansion. While prioritizing for carnivores only, we were also able to test their effectiveness as surrogates for 23,110 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and reptiles and 867 terrestrial ecoregions. We then assessed the risks to carnivore conservation within each country that makes a contribution to global carnivore conservation. We found that land use change will potentially lead to important range losses, particularly amongst already threatened carnivore species. In addition, the 17% of land targeted for protection under the Aichi Target 11 was found to be inadequate to conserve carnivores under expected land use change. Our results also highlight that land use change will decrease the effectiveness of carnivores to protect other threatened species, especially threatened amphibians. In addition, the risk of human-carnivore conflict is potentially high in countries where we identified spatial priorities for their conservation. As meeting the global biodiversity target will be inadequate for carnivore protection, innovative interventions are needed to conserve carnivores outside protected areas to compliment any proposed expansion of the protected area network. PMID:27034197

Adaptive evolutionary conservation: towards a unified concept for defining conservation units.

PubMed

Fraser, D J; Bernatchez, L

2001-12-01

Recent years have seen a debate over various methods that could objectively prioritize conservation value below the species level. Most prominent among these has been the evolutionarily significant unit (ESU). We reviewed ESU concepts with the aim of proposing a more unified concept that would reconcile opposing views. Like species concepts, conflicting ESU concepts are all essentially aiming to define the same thing: segments of species whose divergence can be measured or evaluated by putting differential emphasis on the role of evolutionary forces at varied temporal scales. Thus, differences between ESU concepts lie more in the criteria used to define the ESUs themselves rather than in their fundamental essence. We provide a context-based framework for delineating ESUs which circumvents much of this situation. Rather than embroil in a befuddled debate over an optimal criterion, the key to a solution is accepting that differing criteria will work more dynamically than others and can be used alone or in combination depending on the situation. These assertions constitute the impetus behind adaptive evolutionary conservation.

Water management, purification, and conservation in arid climates. Volume 3: Water conservation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goosen, M.F.A.; Shayya, W.H.

1999-07-01

Arid regions are already feeling the severe restraining effects of potable water shortages. In coming years, humid and sub-humid regions of the world will also have to face many of these same problems. In the future, serious conflicts may arise not because of a lack of oil, but due to water shortages. Are there solutions to these problems? Aside from increasing public awareness about the importance of water, society needs to take a three pronged approach: water needs to be effectively managed, it needs to be economically purified, and it needs to be conserved. Only by doing these three thingsmore » in unison can they hope to alleviate the water problems faced by arid regions of the world. This book presents information valuable to seeking, finding and using current technologies to help solve these problems now. Volume 3 addresses aspects of water conservation and includes rainwater harvesting and wastewater reuse and reclamation.« less

Graphic comparison of reserve-growth models for conventional oil and accumulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, T.R.

2003-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) periodically assesses crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids resources of the world. The assessment procedure requires estimated recover-able oil and natural gas volumes (field size, cumulative production plus remaining reserves) in discovered fields. Because initial reserves are typically conservative, subsequent estimates increase through time as these fields are developed and produced. The USGS assessment of petroleum resources makes estimates, or forecasts, of the potential additions to reserves in discovered oil and gas fields resulting from field development, and it also estimates the potential fully developed sizes of undiscovered fields. The term ?reserve growth? refers to the commonly observed upward adjustment of reserve estimates. Because such additions are related to increases in the total size of a field, the USGS uses field sizes to model reserve growth. Future reserve growth in existing fields is a major component of remaining U.S. oil and natural gas resources and has therefore become a necessary element of U.S. petroleum resource assessments. Past and currently proposed reserve-growth models compared herein aid in the selection of a suitable set of forecast functions to provide an estimate of potential additions to reserves from reserve growth in the ongoing National Oil and Gas Assessment Project (NOGA). Reserve growth is modeled by construction of a curve that represents annual fractional changes of recoverable oil and natural gas volumes (for fields and reservoirs), which provides growth factors. Growth factors are used to calculate forecast functions, which are sets of field- or reservoir-size multipliers. Comparisons of forecast functions were made based on datasets used to construct the models, field type, modeling method, and length of forecast span. Comparisons were also made between forecast functions based on field-level and reservoir- level growth, and between forecast functions based on older and newer data. The reserve-growth model used in the 1995 USGS National Assessment and the model currently used in the NOGA project provide forecast functions that yield similar estimates of potential additions to reserves. Both models are based on the Oil and Gas Integrated Field File from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), but different vintages of data (from 1977 through 1991 and 1977 through 1996, respectively). The model based on newer data can be used in place of the previous model, providing similar estimates of potential additions to reserves. Fore-cast functions for oil fields vary little from those for gas fields in these models; therefore, a single function may be used for both oil and gas fields, like that used in the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000. Forecast functions based on the field-level reserve growth model derived from the NRG Associates databases (from 1982 through 1998) differ from those derived from EIA databases (from 1977 through 1996). However, the difference may not be enough to preclude the use of the forecast functions derived from NRG data in place of the forecast functions derived from EIA data. Should the model derived from NRG data be used, separate forecast functions for oil fields and gas fields must be employed. The forecast function for oil fields from the model derived from NRG data varies significantly from that for gas fields, and a single function for both oil and gas fields may not be appropriate.

Feedbacks between conservation and social-ecological systems

PubMed Central

Miller, Brian W.; Caplow, Susan C.; Leslie, Paul W.

2012-01-01

Robust ways to meet objectives of environmental conservation and social and economic development remain elusive. This struggle may in part be related to insufficient understanding of the feedbacks between conservation initiatives and social-ecological systems, specifically, the ways in which conservation initiatives result in social changes that have secondary effects on the environments targeted by conservation. To explore this idea we sampled peer-reviewed articles addressing the social and environmental dimensions of conservation and coded each paper according to its research focus and characterization of these feedbacks. The majority of articles in our sample focused either on the effect of conservation initiatives on people (e.g., relocation, employment) or the effect of people on the environment (e.g., fragmentation, conservation efficacy of traditional management systems). Few studies in our sample empirically addressed both the social dynamics resulting from conservation initiatives and subsequent environmental effects. In many cases, one was measured and the other was discussed anecdotally. Among the studies that describe feedbacks between social and environmental variables, there was more evidence of positive (amplifying) feedbacks between social and environmental outcomes (i.e., undesirable social outcomes yielded undesirable environmental effects, and desirable social outcomes yielded desirable environmental effects). The major themes within the sampled literature include conflict between humans and wild animals, social movements, adaptive comanagement, loss of traditional management systems, traditional ecological knowledge, human displacement and risks to livelihoods, and conservation and development. The narratives associated with each theme can serve as hypotheses for facilitating further discussion about conservation issues and for catalyzing future studies of the feedbacks between conservation and social-ecological systems. PMID:22443128

[Lumbar disc herniation: Natural history, role of physical examination, timing of surgery, treatment options and conflicts of interests].

PubMed

Delgado-López, Pedro David; Rodríguez-Salazar, Antonio; Martín-Alonso, Javier; Martín-Velasco, Vicente

Indication for surgery in lumbar disc herniation (LDH) varies widely depending on the geographical area. A literature review is presented on the natural history, role of physical examination, timing of surgery, evidence-based treatment, and conflicts of interests in LDH. Surgery is shown to provide significant faster relief of pain compared to conservative therapy, although the effect fades after a year. There is no treatment modality better than the rest in terms of pain control and neurological recovery, nor is there a surgical technique clearly superior to simple discectomy. The lack of sound scientific evidence on the surgical indication may contribute to its great geographical variability. Since LDH has a favourable natural history, neuroimaging and surgery should not be considered until after a 6-week period. It is necessary to specify and respect the surgical indications for LDH, avoiding conflicts of interests. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Neurocirugía. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Australia seeks free science debate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pockley, Peter

2008-04-01

A major theme of the Australian election last November was the conflicting views of the competing parties on climate change. The former Conservative government under Prime Minister John Howard stuck to its refusal, alone with US President George Bush, to ratify the Kyoto accord. However, it was heavily criticized for suppressing the evidence for global warming from scientists who were dependent on government support.

Conflicting short and long-term management goals: Fire effects in endangered golden-cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia) habitat

Treesearch

Christina M. Andruk; Norma L. Fowler

2015-01-01

Decades of fire suppression have significantly altered the vegetation structure and composition of savannas, woodlands, and forests. The presence of endangered species and other species of conservation concern in these fire-suppressed systems makes re-introducing fire more challenging. In oak-juniper woodlands of central Texas, we are presented with the challenge of re...

A Workshop to Resolve Conflicts in the Conservation of Migratory Landbirds in Bottomland Hardwood Forests

Treesearch

Winston Paul Smith; David N. Pashley; [Editors

1994-01-01

Today's land stewards are faced with the challenge of managing natural resources in a social climate with increasing expectations of accountability for an even broader spectrum of ecological and social values. The "buzz" words of days past (i.e., biodiversity, wetland values and functions) are becoming the realities of ecosystem management. Nowhere is...

A potential conflict between preserving regional plant diversity and biotic resistance to an invasive grass, Microstegium vimineum

Treesearch

J. Stephen Brewer

2010-01-01

The relevance of diversity-biotic resistance studies to conservation of biodiversity could be improved by simultaneously examining the drivers of regional diversity and their effects on local species diversity and invasion. Using path analysis, I examined direct and indirect effects of various abiotic factors (i.e., flooding, treefall gaps, soil texture, proximity to...

Conflict between conservation and development: cash forest encroachment in Asian elephant distributions.

PubMed

Liu, Peng; Wen, Hui; Harich, Franziska K; He, Changhuan; Wang, Lanxin; Guo, Xianming; Zhao, Jianwei; Luo, Aidong; Yang, Hongpei; Sun, Xiao; Yu, Yang; Zheng, Shaobo; Guo, Jing; Li, Li; Zhang, Li

2017-08-03

Over the last 4 decades, China has undergone major economic development, resulting in considerable impacts on its wildlife populations and habitats. It is essential to quantify the conflict between development and conservation to assist with policy-making because forestry policies and market trends affected indirectly the distribution of Asian elephants. Here, we mapped the historical distribution of elephants versus human land use. Elephant distributions appear to occur in unbroken natural forests only. However, over the 40-year period, the distribution ranges have become smaller and fragmented, with natural forest area also declining by 16%. The monoculture of cash trees is encroaching on natural forests. Over the past 10 years, rubber plantations have become concentrated in the south, with extensive natural forests and scattered rubber farms being converted to tea plantations, due to changes in governmental policies and product prices. Through mapping the spatial changes in the distribution of rubber and tea plantations, our study is expected to help local managers to incorporate the needs of endangered elephants through creating space when planning plantations, especially in Xishuangbanna and the south part of Pu'er. In conclusion, restoring elephant habitat and establishing ecological corridors are critical for the survival of elephants in this region.

A study on the tolerance level of farmers toward human-wildlife conflict in the forest buffer zones of Tamil Nadu

PubMed Central

Senthilkumar, K.; Mathialagan, P.; Manivannan, C.; Jayathangaraj, M. G.; Gomathinayagam, S.

2016-01-01

Aim: The aim of this work was to study the tolerance level of farmers toward different human-wildlife conflict (HWC) situations. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted in 24 villages of nine blocks from Kancheepuram, Coimbatore, Erode, and Krishnagiri districts of Tamil Nadu by personally interviewing 240 farmers affected with four different HWC situations such as human-elephant conflict (HEC), human-wild pig conflict (HPC), human-gaur conflict (HGC), and human-monkey conflict (HMC). A scale developed for this purpose was used to find out the tolerance level of the farmers. Results: In general, the majority (61.70%) of the farmers had medium level of tolerance toward HWC, whereas 25.40% and 12.90% belonged to a high and low category, respectively. The mean tolerance level of the farmer’s encountering HMC is low (8.77) among the other three wild animal conflicts. In tackling HWC, the majority (55.00%) of the HEC farmers drove the elephant once it entered into their farmland. In the HPC, more than three-fourths of the respondents drove away the wild pig once they were found in farmlands. With regard to the HMC, a less number of them (1.70%) drove the monkey away if monkeys were spotted in their village. With regard to HGC, 95.00% of the respondents frightened the gaurs if their family members were threatened by gaurs. Conclusion: The present study suggests that that majority of the farmers had medium level of tolerance toward HWC. The tolerance level of the HMC farmers was lower than other three HWC affected farmers. This study emphasizes the need for necessary training to tackle the problem in an effective manner for wild animal conservation. PMID:27536037

A study on the tolerance level of farmers toward human-wildlife conflict in the forest buffer zones of Tamil Nadu.

PubMed

Senthilkumar, K; Mathialagan, P; Manivannan, C; Jayathangaraj, M G; Gomathinayagam, S

2016-07-01

The aim of this work was to study the tolerance level of farmers toward different human-wildlife conflict (HWC) situations. This study was conducted in 24 villages of nine blocks from Kancheepuram, Coimbatore, Erode, and Krishnagiri districts of Tamil Nadu by personally interviewing 240 farmers affected with four different HWC situations such as human-elephant conflict (HEC), human-wild pig conflict (HPC), human-gaur conflict (HGC), and human-monkey conflict (HMC). A scale developed for this purpose was used to find out the tolerance level of the farmers. In general, the majority (61.70%) of the farmers had medium level of tolerance toward HWC, whereas 25.40% and 12.90% belonged to a high and low category, respectively. The mean tolerance level of the farmer's encountering HMC is low (8.77) among the other three wild animal conflicts. In tackling HWC, the majority (55.00%) of the HEC farmers drove the elephant once it entered into their farmland. In the HPC, more than three-fourths of the respondents drove away the wild pig once they were found in farmlands. With regard to the HMC, a less number of them (1.70%) drove the monkey away if monkeys were spotted in their village. With regard to HGC, 95.00% of the respondents frightened the gaurs if their family members were threatened by gaurs. The present study suggests that that majority of the farmers had medium level of tolerance toward HWC. The tolerance level of the HMC farmers was lower than other three HWC affected farmers. This study emphasizes the need for necessary training to tackle the problem in an effective manner for wild animal conservation.

Energy: An annotated selected bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blow, S. J. (Compiler); Peacock, R. W. (Compiler); Sholy, J. J. (Compiler)

1979-01-01

This updated bibliography contains approximately 7,000 selected references on energy and energy related topics from bibliographic and other data sources from June 1977. Under each subject heading the entries are arranged by the data, with the latest works first. Subject headings include: resources supply/demand, and forecasting; policy, legislation, and regulation; environment; consumption, conservation, and economics; analysis, systems, and modeling, and information sources and documentation. Fossil fuels, hydrogen and other fuels, liquid/solid wastes and biomass, waste heat utilization, and nuclear power sources are also included.

Phase 1 Environmental Baseline Survey for Construction of a Wastewater Transmission Pipeline by the City of North Las Vegas on Nellis Air Force Base Clark County, Nevada

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

preliminary assessment , that no longer pose a significant risk or require further activity under CERCLA. Resource Conservation and Recovery Act...facts regarding, or prediction or forecast of, any environmental risk for any property. Only a Phase I Environmental Site Assessment performed by an... Assessments (E 1527-05) or custom requirements developed for the evaluation of environmental risk associated with a parcel of real estate. TARGET PROPERTY

Agricultural intensification and drought frequency increases may have landscape-level consequences for ephemeral ecosystems.

PubMed

Dalu, Tatenda; Wasserman, Ryan J; Dalu, Mwazvita T B

2017-03-01

Ephemeral wetlands in arid regions are often degraded or destroyed through poor land-use practice long before they are ever studied or prioritized for conservation. Climate change will likely also have implications for these ecosystems given forecast changes in rainfall patterns in many arid environments. Here, we present a conceptual diagram showing typical and modified ephemeral wetlands in agricultural landscapes and how modification impacts on species diversity and composition. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forecasting Corrosion of Steel in Concrete Introducing Chloride Threshold Dependence on Steel Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez, Andrea Nathalie

Corrosion initiates in reinforced concrete structures exposed to marine environments when the chloride ion concentration at the surface of an embedded steel reinforcing bar exceeds the chloride corrosion threshold (CT) value. The value of CT is generally assumed to have a conservative fixed value ranging from 0.2% to - 0.5 % of chloride ions by weight of cement. However, extensive experimental investigations confirmed that C T is not a fixed value and that the value of CT depends on many variables. Among those, the potential of passive steel embedded in concrete is a key influential factor on the value of CT and has received little attention in the literature. The phenomenon of a potential-dependent threshold (PDT) permits accounting for corrosion macrocell coupling between active and passive steel assembly components in corrosion forecast models, avoiding overly conservative long-term damage projections and leading to more efficient design. The objectives of this investigation was to 1) expand by a systematic experimental assessment the knowledge and data base on how dependent the chloride threshold is on the potential of the steel embedded in concrete and 2) introduce the chloride threshold dependence on steel potential as an integral part of corrosion-related service life prediction of reinforced concrete structures. Experimental assessments on PDT were found in the literature but for a limited set of conditions. Therefore, experiments were conducted with mortar and concrete specimens and exposed to conditions more representative of the field than those previously available. The experimental results confirmed the presence of the PDT effect and provided supporting information to use a value of -550 mV per decade of Cl- for the cathodic prevention slope betaCT, a critical quantitative input for implementation in a practical model. A refinement of a previous corrosion initiation-propagation model that incorporated PDT in a partially submerged reinforced concrete column in sea water was developed. Corrosion was assumed to start when the chloride corrosion threshold was reached in an active steel zone of a given size, followed by recalculating the potential distribution and update threshold values over the entire system at each time step. Notably, results of this work indicated that when PDT is ignored, as is the case in present forecasting model practice, the corrosion damage prediction can be overly conservative which could lead to structural overdesign or misguided future damage management planning. Implementation of PDT in next-generation models is therefore highly desirable. However, developing a mathematical model that forecasts the corrosion damage of an entire marine structure with a fully implemented PDT module can result in excessive computational complexity. Hence, a provisional simplified approach for incorporating the effect of PDT was developed. The approach uses a correction function to be applied to projections that have been computed using the traditional procedures.

Mass Conservation and Positivity Preservation with Ensemble-type Kalman Filter Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janjic, Tijana; McLaughlin, Dennis B.; Cohn, Stephen E.; Verlaan, Martin

2013-01-01

Maintaining conservative physical laws numerically has long been recognized as being important in the development of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In the broader context of data assimilation, concerted efforts to maintain conservation laws numerically and to understand the significance of doing so have begun only recently. In order to enforce physically based conservation laws of total mass and positivity in the ensemble Kalman filter, we incorporate constraints to ensure that the filter ensemble members and the ensemble mean conserve mass and remain nonnegative through measurement updates. We show that the analysis steps of ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) algorithm and ensemble Kalman filter algorithm (EnKF) can conserve the mass integral, but do not preserve positivity. Further, if localization is applied or if negative values are simply set to zero, then the total mass is not conserved either. In order to ensure mass conservation, a projection matrix that corrects for localization effects is constructed. In order to maintain both mass conservation and positivity preservation through the analysis step, we construct a data assimilation algorithms based on quadratic programming and ensemble Kalman filtering. Mass and positivity are both preserved by formulating the filter update as a set of quadratic programming problems that incorporate constraints. Some simple numerical experiments indicate that this approach can have a significant positive impact on the posterior ensemble distribution, giving results that are more physically plausible both for individual ensemble members and for the ensemble mean. The results show clear improvements in both analyses and forecasts, particularly in the presence of localized features. Behavior of the algorithm is also tested in presence of model error.

Health care mergers and acquisitions: implications of robbers cave realistic conflict theory and prisoner's dilemma game theory.

PubMed

Creasy, Todd; Kinard, Jerry

2013-01-01

Many health care mergers and acquisitions have proven highly successful because of the geographic proximity of the institutions, coalignment strategies, complementary services, and improved financial performance. Other health care mergers and acquisitions, however, have been dismal failures. This article seeks to explain a primary cause of less successful mergers or acquisitions through the prism of a multiscale, iterative prisoner's dilemma that occurs between department managers. Aspects of "Coping Theory," "Resource (Conservation) Theory," and "Social Comparison Theory" are used to analyze the experience of employees charged with making mergers or acquisitions successful. Lastly, this article suggests possible culture clash remedies drawn from the realistic conflict experiment conducted by Muzafer Sherif near Robbers Cave State Park in Oklahoma.

Ethics and epistemology of accurate prediction in clinical research.

PubMed

Hey, Spencer Phillips

2015-07-01

All major research ethics policies assert that the ethical review of clinical trial protocols should include a systematic assessment of risks and benefits. But despite this policy, protocols do not typically contain explicit probability statements about the likely risks or benefits involved in the proposed research. In this essay, I articulate a range of ethical and epistemic advantages that explicit forecasting would offer to the health research enterprise. I then consider how some particular confidence levels may come into conflict with the principles of ethical research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

2017-12-01

Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas. Improving water demand forecasts will help planners understand and optimize future investments in water supply infrastructure and related programs.

Changes in the relation between snow station observations and basin scale snow water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sexstone, G. A.; Penn, C. A.; Clow, D. W.; Moeser, D.; Liston, G. E.

2017-12-01

Snow monitoring stations that measure snow water equivalent or snow depth provide fundamental observations used for predicting water availability and flood risk in mountainous regions. In the western United States, snow station observations provided by the Natural Resources Conservation Service Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) network are relied upon for forecasting spring and summer streamflow volume. Streamflow forecast accuracy has declined for many regions over the last several decades. Changes in snow accumulation and melt related to climate, land use, and forest cover are not accounted for in current forecasts, and are likely sources of error. Therefore, understanding and updating relations between snow station observations and basin scale snow water resources is crucial to improve accuracy of streamflow prediction. In this study, we investigated the representativeness of snow station observations when compared to simulated basin-wide snow water resources within the Rio Grande headwaters of Colorado. We used the combination of a process-based snow model (SnowModel), field-based measurements, and remote sensing observations to compare the spatiotemporal variability of simulated basin-wide snow accumulation and melt with that of SNOTEL station observations. Results indicated that observations are comparable to simulated basin-average winter precipitation but overestimate both the simulated basin-average snow water equivalent and snowmelt rate. Changes in the representation of snow station observations over time in the Rio Grande headwaters were also investigated and compared to observed streamflow and streamflow forecasting errors. Results from this study provide important insight in the context of non-stationarity for future water availability assessments and streamflow predictions.

An Improved Approach for Forecasting Ecological Impacts from Future Drilling in Unconventional Shale Oil and Gas Plays.

PubMed

Wolaver, Brad D; Pierre, Jon Paul; Ikonnikova, Svetlana A; Andrews, John R; McDaid, Guinevere; Ryberg, Wade A; Hibbitts, Toby J; Duran, Charles M; Labay, Benjamin J; LaDuc, Travis J

2018-04-13

Directional well drilling and hydraulic fracturing has enabled energy production from previously inaccessible resources, but caused vegetation conversion and landscape fragmentation, often in relatively undisturbed habitats. We improve forecasts of future ecological impacts from unconventional oil and gas play developments using a new, more spatially-explicit approach. We applied an energy production outlook model, which used geologic and economic data from thousands of wells and three oil price scenarios, to map future drilling patterns and evaluate the spatial distribution of vegetation conversion and habitat impacts. We forecast where future well pad construction may be most intense, illustrating with an example from the Eagle Ford Shale Play of Texas. We also illustrate the ecological utility of this approach using the Spot-tailed Earless Lizard (Holbrookia lacerata) as the focal species, which historically occupied much of the Eagle Ford and awaits a federal decision for possible Endangered Species Act protection. We found that ~17,000-45,500 wells would be drilled 2017‒2045 resulting in vegetation conversion of ~26,485-70,623 ha (0.73-1.96% of pre-development vegetation), depending on price scenario ($40-$80/barrel). Grasslands and row crop habitats were most affected (2.30 and 2.82% areal vegetation reduction). Our approach improves forecasts of where and to what extent future energy development in unconventional plays may change land-use and ecosystem services, enabling natural resource managers to anticipate and direct on-the-ground conservation actions to places where they will most effectively mitigate ecological impacts of well pads and associated infrastructure.

Transforming Conflict into Effective Action: A Case Study on the Effects of Anthropogenic Sound on Marine Mammals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowski, Jill K.

Like many wicked environmental problems of our time, marine sound and its potential effects on marine mammals is characterized by high levels of scientific uncertainty, diversified values across many stakeholder groups, political and regulatory complexities, and a continually evolving ecological and social environment. Further, the history of conflict and the relationships between major actors has rooted the issue firmly in identity conflict where prejudices lead to avoidance of working together. What results is continuing controversy, failed management decisions, litigation and an increasing frustration by all parties on why a better solution cannot be found. Ultimately, the intractability of the issue is not about the science, nor will the science ever tame the issue on its own. Rather, the issue is intractable because of the conflict between people about the most appropriate path forward. It is then imperative to understand, address, and transform this conflict in order to move off the decision carousel toward improved conservation outcomes and sustainable decisions for all. This research used an explanatory case study approach to quantitatively and qualitatively investigate the context and reasoning underlying conflict on this issue. Three methods were used in order to triangulate the data, and thus add rigor, including: (1) a document review of 230 publications: (2) exploratory interviews with 10 collaborative action experts and semi-structured interviews with 58 marine mammals and sound stakeholders; and (3) participant review of selected analyses. Data elucidate how different stakeholder groups define the problem and potential solutions, how they see their role and view the role of other stakeholders, specific experiences that increased or decrease conflict, and design preferences for a collaborative effort. These data are combined with conflict transformation principles to provide recommendations for a collaborative, transformative framework designed to help build capacity for groups to work together and ultimately tame this wicked issue.

When Is Momentum Conserved, and What About Car Crashes in Virginia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehrlich, Robert

2005-10-01

Many years ago I consulted on the reconstruction of an automobile accident for an attorney. After writing a report on the accident, I was deposed by the other side's attorney, and my report was challenged. One key calculation in my report made use of the conservation of momentum in the crash, and the attorney notified me that arguments involving conservation of momentum are not recognized by courts in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Apparently the situation today is more mixed, according to an accident reconstructionist I recently spoke with, who noted that about half the judges (the "more open-minded ones") do admit such arguments in court. This real-world experience with a conflict between the laws of physics and the laws of man made me reflect on whether there might be some validity to the disinclination of many judges to acknowledge a law of physics in their courtrooms.

Characterization of 12 microsatellite loci for the Pacific lamprey, Entosphenus tridentatus (Petromyzontidae), and cross-amplification in five other lamprey species.

PubMed

Spice, E K; Whitesel, T A; McFarlane, C T; Docker, M F

2011-12-22

The Pacific lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) is an anadromous fish that is of conservation concern in North America and Asia. Data on Pacific lamprey population structure are scarce and conflicting, impeding conservation efforts. We optimized 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci for the Pacific lamprey. Three to 13 alleles per locus were observed in a sample of 51 fish collected from the West Fork Illinois River, Oregon. Observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.235 to 0.902 and expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.214 to 0.750. Cross-species amplification produced 8 to 12 polymorphic loci in four other Entosphenus species and in the western brook lamprey (Lampetra richardsoni). Two loci appear to be diagnostic for distinguishing Entosphenus from Lampetra. These markers will be valuable for evaluating population structure and making conservation decisions for E. tridentatus and other lamprey species.

Biodiversity and Archeological Conservation Connected: Aragonite Shell Middens Increase Plant Diversity

PubMed Central

Vanderplank, Sula E.; Mata, Sergio; Ezcurra, Exequiel

2014-01-01

Natural and cultural heritage sites frequently have nonoverlapping or even conflicting conservation priorities, because human impacts have often resulted in local extirpations and reduced levels of native biodiversity. Over thousands of years, the predictable winter rains of northwestern Baja California have weathered calcium from the clam shells deposited by indigenous peoples in middens along the coast. The release of this calcium has changed soil properties, remediated sodic and saline soils, and resulted in a unique microhabitat that harbors plant assemblages very different from those of the surrounding matrix. Native plant biodiversity and landscape heterogeneity are significantly increased on the anthropogenic soils of these shell middens. Protection of this cultural landscape in the Anthropocene will further both archeological and biodiversity conservation in these anthropogenic footprints from the Holocene. Along these coasts, natural and cultural heritage priorities are overlapping and mutually beneficial. PMID:26955068

Stakeholder management for conservation projects: a case study of Ream National Park, Cambodia.

PubMed

De Lopez, T T

2001-07-01

The paper gives an account of the development and implementation of a stakeholder management framework at Ream National Park, Cambodia. Firstly, the concept of stakeholder is reviewed in management and in conservation literatures. Secondly, the context in which the stakeholder framework was implemented is described. Thirdly, a five-step methodological framework is suggested: (1) stakeholder analysis, (2) stakeholder mapping, (3) development of generic strategies and workplan, (4) presentation of the workplan to stakeholders, and (5) implementation of the workplan. This framework classifies stakeholders according to their level of influence on the project and their potential for the conservation of natural resources. In a situation characterized by conflicting claims on natural resources, park authorities were able to successfully develop specific strategies for the management of stakeholders. The conclusion discusses the implications of the Ream experience and the generalization of the framework to other protected areas.

Relation between Ocean SST Dipoles and Downwind Continental Croplands Assessed for Early Management Using Satellite-based Photosynthesis Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, Daijiro

2015-04-01

Crop-monitoring systems with the unit of carbon-dioxide sequestration for environmental issues related to climate adaptation to global warming have been improved using satellite-based photosynthesis and meteorological conditions. Early management of crop status is desirable for grain production, stockbreeding, and bio-energy providing that the seasonal climate forecasting is sufficiently accurate. Incorrect seasonal forecasting of crop production can damage global social activities if the recognized conditions are unsatisfied. One cause of poor forecasting related to the atmospheric dynamics at the Earth surface, which reflect the energy budget through land surface, especially the oceans and atmosphere. Recognition of the relation between SST anomalies (e.g. ENSO, Atlantic Niño, Indian dipoles, and Ningaloo Niño) and crop production, as expressed precisely by photosynthesis or the sequestrated-carbon rate, is necessary to elucidate the mechanisms related to poor production. Solar radiation, surface air temperature, and water stress all directly affect grain vegetation photosynthesis. All affect stomata opening, which is related to the water balance or definition by the ratio of the Penman potential evaporation and actual transpiration. Regarding stomata, present data and reanalysis data give overestimated values of stomata opening because they are extended from wet models in forests rather than semi-arid regions commonly associated with wheat, maize, and soybean. This study applies a complementary model based on energy conservation for semi-arid zones instead of the conventional Penman-Monteith method. Partitioning of the integrated Net PSN enables precise estimation of crop yields by modifying the semi-closed stomata opening. Partitioning predicts production more accurately using the cropland distribution already classified using satellite data. Seasonal crop forecasting should include near-real-time monitoring using satellite-based process crop models to avoid social difficulties that can derive from uncertain seasonal predictions produced from long-term forecasting. Acknowledgement The author appreciates scientific discussions held with the application team of seasonal prediction at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. Key words: crop production, monitoring, forecasting, SST anomaly, remote sensing

McGill algorithm for precipitation nowcasting by lagrangian extrapolation (MAPLE) applied to the South Korean radar network. Part I: Sensitivity studies of the Variational Echo Tracking (VET) technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellon, Aldo; Zawadzki, Isztar; Kilambi, Alamelu; Lee, Hee Choon; Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, Gyuwon

2010-08-01

A Variational Echo Tracking (VET) technique has been applied to four months of archived data from the South Korean radar network in order to examine the influence of the various user-selectable parameters on the skill of the resulting 20-min to 4-h nowcasts. The latter are computed over a (512 × 512) array at 2-km resolution. After correcting the original algorithm to take into account the motion of precipitation across the boundaries of such a smaller radar network, we concluded that the set of default input parameters initially assumed is very close to the optimum combination. Decreasing to (5 sx 5) or increasing to (50 × 50) the default vector density of (25 × 25), using two or three maps for velocity determination, varying the relative weights for the constraints of conservation of reflectivity and of the smoothing of the velocity vectors, and finally the application of temporal smoothing all had only marginal effects on the skill of the forecasts. The relatively small sensitivity to significant variations of the VET default parameters is a direct consequence of the fact that the major source of the loss in forecast skill cannot be attributed to errors in the forecast motion, but to the unpredictable nature of the storm growth and decay. Changing the time interval between maps, from 20 to 10 minutes, and significantly increasing the reflectivity threshold from 15 to 30 dBZ had a more noticeable reduction on the forecast skill. Comparisons with the Eulerian "zero velocity" forecast and with a "single" vector forecast have also been performed in order to determine the accrued skill of the VET algorithm. Because of the extensive stratiform nature of the precipitation areas affecting the Korean peninsula, the increased skill is not as large as may have been anticipated. This can be explained by the greater extent of the precipitation systems relative to the size of the radar coverage domain.

A prescription for controlling the air pollution resulting from the use of prescribed biomass fire: clouds

Treesearch

L.F. Radke; D.E. Ward; P.J. Riggan

2001-01-01

Forestry, conservation, wildfire risk reduction, and agricultural uses of planned or prescribed fires as a tool for meeting the needs of wildland managers are increasingly in collision at the air pollution control and climate change cross-roads. The inevitable conflict resulting from the disparate goals of users has long been the subject of a combination of both...

Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE PAGES

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie; ...

2016-11-08

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

Collaborative Resource Allocation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Yeou-Fang; Wax, Allan; Lam, Raymond; Baldwin, John; Borden, Chester

2007-01-01

Collaborative Resource Allocation Networking Environment (CRANE) Version 0.5 is a prototype created to prove the newest concept of using a distributed environment to schedule Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna times in a collaborative fashion. This program is for all space-flight and terrestrial science project users and DSN schedulers to perform scheduling activities and conflict resolution, both synchronously and asynchronously. Project schedulers can, for the first time, participate directly in scheduling their tracking times into the official DSN schedule, and negotiate directly with other projects in an integrated scheduling system. A master schedule covers long-range, mid-range, near-real-time, and real-time scheduling time frames all in one, rather than the current method of separate functions that are supported by different processes and tools. CRANE also provides private workspaces (both dynamic and static), data sharing, scenario management, user control, rapid messaging (based on Java Message Service), data/time synchronization, workflow management, notification (including emails), conflict checking, and a linkage to a schedule generation engine. The data structure with corresponding database design combines object trees with multiple associated mortal instances and relational database to provide unprecedented traceability and simplify the existing DSN XML schedule representation. These technologies are used to provide traceability, schedule negotiation, conflict resolution, and load forecasting from real-time operations to long-range loading analysis up to 20 years in the future. CRANE includes a database, a stored procedure layer, an agent-based middle tier, a Web service wrapper, a Windows Integrated Analysis Environment (IAE), a Java application, and a Web page interface.

Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

The construction of feelings of justice in environmental management: An empirical study of multiple biodiversity conflicts in Calakmul, Mexico.

PubMed

Lecuyer, Lou; White, Rehema M; Schmook, Birgit; Lemay, Violaine; Calmé, Sophie

2018-05-01

A failure to address social concerns in biodiversity conservation can lead to feelings of injustice among some actors, and hence jeopardize conservation goals. The complex socio-cultural and political context of the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, Mexico, has historically led to multiple biodiversity conflicts. Our goal, in this case study, was to explore perceptions of justice held by local actors in relation to biodiversity conflicts. We then aimed to determine the following: 1) people's definitions of their feelings of justice; 2) the criteria used in this assessment; 3) variability in the criteria influencing them; and 4) implications for environmental management in the region and beyond. We worked with five focus groups, exploring three examples of biodiversity conflict around forest, water and jaguar management with a total of 41 ranchers, farmers and representatives of local producers. Our results demonstrated that people constructed their feelings of justice around four dimensions of justice: recognition (acknowledging individuals' rights, values, cultures and knowledge systems); ecological (fair and respectful treatment of the natural environment), procedural (fairness in processes of environmental management), distributive (fairness in the distribution of costs and benefits). We identified a list of criteria the participants used in their appraisal of justice and sources of variation such as the social scale of focus and participant role, and whom they perceived to be responsible for resource management. We propose a new framework that conceptualizes justice-as-recognition and ecological justice as forms of conditional justices, and procedural and distributive justices as forms of practical justice. Conditional justice allows us to define who is a legitimate source of justice norms and if nature should be integrated in the scope of justice; hence, conditional justice underpins other dimensions of justice. On the other hand, procedural and distributive address the daily practices of fair processes and distribution. We propose that the perception of justice is a neglected but important aspect to include in integrative approaches to managing biodiversity conflicts. Addressing demands of justice in environmental management will require us to consider more than the distribution of costs and benefits among actors. We also need to respect the plurality of fairness perspectives and to recognize the benefits of dialogical approaches to achieve more successful environmental management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conserving the Greater Sage-grouse: A social-ecological systems case study from the California-Nevada region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duvall, Alison L; Metcalf, Alexander L.; Coates, Peter S.

2016-01-01

The Endangered Species Act (ESA) continues to serve as one of the most powerful and contested federal legislative mandates for conservation. In the midst of heated debates, researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners champion the importance of cooperative conservation and social-ecological systems approaches, which forge partnerships at multiple levels and scales to address complex ecosystem challenges. However, few real-world examples exist to demonstrate how multifaceted collaborations among stakeholders who share a common goal of conserving at-risk species may be nested within a systems framework to achieve social and ecological goals. Here, we present a case study of Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) conservation efforts in the “Bi-State” region of California and Nevada, United States. Using key-informant interviews, we explored dimensions and drivers of this landscape-scale conservation effort. Three themes emerged from the interviews, including 1) ESA action was transformed into opportunity for system-wide conservation; 2) a diverse, locally based partnership anchored collaboration and engagement across multiple levels and scales; and 3) best-available science combined with local knowledge led to “certainty of effectiveness and implementation”—the criteria used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to evaluate conservation efforts when making listing decisions. Ultimately, collaborative conservation through multistakeholder engagement at various levels and scales led to proactive planning and implementation of conservation measures and precluded the need for an ESA listing of the Bi-State population of Greater Sage-grouse. This article presents a potent example of how a systems approach integrating policy, management, and learning can be used to successfully overcome the conflict-laden and “wicked” challenges that surround at-risk species conservation.

Paradigm shifts in fish conservation: moving to the ecosystem services concept.

PubMed

Cowx, I G; Portocarrero Aya, M

2011-12-01

Various factors constrain the existence and development of inland fishes and fisheries, such as pollution, habitat degradation, alien invasive species, local user conflicts, low social priority and inadequate research and funding. In many cases, however, degradation of the environment and loss of aquatic habitat are the predominant concerns for the conservation of freshwater aquatic biota. The need for concerted effort to prevent and reduce environmental degradation, as well as protection of freshwater fishes and fisheries as renewable common pool resources or entities in their own right, are the greatest challenges facing the conservation of fishes in inland waters. Unfortunately, traditional conservation practices such as regulation of exploitation, protected areas and habitat restoration have failed to arrest the alarming increase in number of threatened freshwater fish species worldwide. This paper examines the shifting paradigm of fisheries management from rule-based regulation, through fishery enhancement towards the ecosystem approach to fisheries, with reference to inland waters, and how the emerging concept of ecosystem services coupled with traditional fish conservation management practices, institutional restructuring and integrated management planning should provide a more sustainable thrust to formulation and promotion of fish conservation initiatives. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Stakeholder Participation in Marine Spatial Plan Making Process in Lampung Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asirin; Asbi, A. M.; Pakpahan, V. H.

2018-05-01

Lampung Province has coastal areas, seas and small islands facing conflicts of interest between tourism, conservation areas for defense, environmental conservation, and the threat of unsustainable marine resource utilization. Indonesia (including Lampung Province) has committed itself to achieving the objectives of conservation and sustainable use of oceans, seas and marine resources in view of sustainable development. One of the instruments used to achieve this goal is by using marine spatial planning (MSP). The purpose of this research was to analyse the marine spatial plan making process in Lampung Province. This research also evaluated the participation process and participation level based on plan-making process criteria and the stakeholder participation ladder. This research can be useful as a recommendation in the evaluation step to improve the plan-making process in order to address conflicts of interest between various related interest groups, so that planning can be accomplished with the involvement of all relevant parties to reach consensus on how to achieve a sustainable marine environment. This research used a qualitative research method as well as a case study approach. The scope of this study was limited by the conceptual framework of marine spatial planning and the stakeholder participation ladder. The authors recommend study of the preparation of marine spatial planning in addition to a technocratic approach considering the results of the study aspects of spatial allocation and physical aspects of marine resources, while prioritizing building consensus among various interest groups related to the utilization of marine resources. Thus, it is necessary to develop technical steps to build consensus in the marine spatial plan-making process.

Landscape equivalency analysis: methodology for estimating spatially explicit biodiversity credits.

PubMed

Bruggeman, Douglas J; Jones, Michael L; Lupi, Frank; Scribner, Kim T

2005-10-01

We propose a biodiversity credit system for trading endangered species habitat designed to minimize and reverse the negative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation, the leading cause of species endangerment in the United States. Given the increasing demand for land, approaches that explicitly balance economic goals against conservation goals are required. The Endangered Species Act balances these conflicts based on the cost to replace habitat. Conservation banking is a means to manage this balance, and we argue for its use to mitigate the effects of habitat fragmentation. Mitigating the effects of land development on biodiversity requires decisions that recognize regional ecological effects resulting from local economic decisions. We propose Landscape Equivalency Analysis (LEA), a landscape-scale approach similar to HEA, as an accounting system to calculate conservation banking credits so that habitat trades do not exacerbate regional ecological effects of local decisions. Credits purchased by public agencies or NGOs for purposes other than mitigating a take create a net investment in natural capital leading to habitat defragmentation. Credits calculated by LEA use metapopulation genetic theory to estimate sustainability criteria against which all trades are judged. The approach is rooted in well-accepted ecological, evolutionary, and economic theory, which helps compensate for the degree of uncertainty regarding the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on endangered species. LEA requires application of greater scientific rigor than typically applied to endangered species management on private lands but provides an objective, conceptually sound basis for achieving the often conflicting goals of economic efficiency and long-term ecological sustainability.

Solving multi-objective optimization problems in conservation with the reference point method

PubMed Central

Dujardin, Yann; Chadès, Iadine

2018-01-01

Managing the biodiversity extinction crisis requires wise decision-making processes able to account for the limited resources available. In most decision problems in conservation biology, several conflicting objectives have to be taken into account. Most methods used in conservation either provide suboptimal solutions or use strong assumptions about the decision-maker’s preferences. Our paper reviews some of the existing approaches to solve multi-objective decision problems and presents new multi-objective linear programming formulations of two multi-objective optimization problems in conservation, allowing the use of a reference point approach. Reference point approaches solve multi-objective optimization problems by interactively representing the preferences of the decision-maker with a point in the criteria (objectives) space, called the reference point. We modelled and solved the following two problems in conservation: a dynamic multi-species management problem under uncertainty and a spatial allocation resource management problem. Results show that the reference point method outperforms classic methods while illustrating the use of an interactive methodology for solving combinatorial problems with multiple objectives. The method is general and can be adapted to a wide range of ecological combinatorial problems. PMID:29293650

How Christians reconcile their personal political views and the teachings of their faith: Projection as a means of dissonance reduction

PubMed Central

Ross, Lee D.; Lelkes, Yphtach; Russell, Alexandra G.

2012-01-01

The present study explores the dramatic projection of one's own views onto those of Jesus among conservative and liberal American Christians. In a large-scale survey, the relevant views that each group attributed to a contemporary Jesus differed almost as much as their own views. Despite such dissonance-reducing projection, however, conservatives acknowledged the relevant discrepancy with regard to “fellowship” issues (e.g., taxation to reduce economic inequality and treatment of immigrants) and liberals acknowledged the relevant discrepancy with regard to “morality” issues (e.g., abortion and gay marriage). However, conservatives also claimed that a contemporary Jesus would be even more conservative than themselves on the former issues whereas liberals claimed that Jesus would be even more liberal than themselves on the latter issues. Further reducing potential dissonance, liberal and conservative Christians differed markedly in the types of issues they claimed to be more central to their faith. A concluding discussion considers the relationship between individual motivational processes and more social processes that may underlie the present findings, as well as implications for contemporary social and political conflict. PMID:22308413

Motivated emotion and the rally around the flag effect: liberals are motivated to feel collective angst (like conservatives) when faced with existential threat.

PubMed

Porat, Roni; Tamir, Maya; Wohl, Michael J A; Gur, Tamar; Halperin, Eran

2018-04-18

A careful look at societies facing threat reveals a unique phenomenon in which liberals and conservatives react emotionally and attitudinally in a similar manner, rallying around the conservative flag. Previous research suggests that this rally effect is the result of liberals shifting in their attitudes and emotional responses toward the conservative end. Whereas theories of motivated social cognition provide a motivation-based account of cognitive processes (i.e. attitude shift), it remains unclear whether emotional shifts are, in fact, also a motivation-based process. Herein, we propose that under threat, liberals are motivated to feel existential concern about their group's future vitality (i.e. collective angst) to the same extent as conservatives, because this group-based emotion elicits support for ingroup protective action. Within the context of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, we tested and found support for this hypothesis both inside (Study 1) and outside (Study 2) the laboratory. We did so using a behavioural index of motivation to experience collective angst. We discuss the implications of our findings for understanding motivated emotion regulation in the context of intergroup threat.

Modeling soil conservation, water conservation and their tradeoffs: a case study in Beijing.

PubMed

Bai, Yang; Ouyang, Zhiyun; Zheng, Hua; Li, Xiaoma; Zhuang, Changwei; Jiang, Bo

2012-01-01

Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With the rapid increase in human populations and excessive utilization of natural resources, humans frequently enhance the production of some services at the expense of the others. Although the need for tradeoffs between conservation and development is urgent, the lack of efficient methods to assess such tradeoffs has impeded progress. Three land use strategy scenarios (development scenario, plan trend scenario and conservation scenario) were created to forecast potential changes in ecosystem services from 2007 to 2050 in Beijing, China. GIS-based techniques were used to map spatial and temporal distribution and changes in ecosystem services for each scenario. The provision of ecosystem services differed spatially, with significant changes being associated with different scenarios. Scenario analysis of water yield (as average annual yield) and soil retention (as retention rate per unit area) for the period 2007 to 2050 indicated that the highest values for these parameters were predicted for the forest habitat under all three scenarios. Annual yield/retention of forest, shrub, and grassland ranked the highest in the conservation scenario. Total water yield and soil retention increased in the conservation scenario and declined dramatically in the other two scenarios, especially the development scenario. The conservation scenario was the optimal land use strategy, resulting in the highest soil retention and water yield. Our study suggests that the evaluation and visualization of ecosystem services can effectively assist in understanding the tradeoffs between conservation and development. Results of this study have implications for planning and monitoring future management of natural capital and ecosystem services, which can be integrated into land use decision-making.

The impact of zoo live animal presentations on students' propensity to engage in conservation behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchgessner, Mandy L.

Zoos frequently deploy outreach programs, often called "Zoomobiles," to schools; these programs incorporate zoo resources, such as natural artifacts and live animals, in order to teach standardized content and in hopes of inspiring students to protect the environment. Educational research at zoos is relatively rare, and research on their outreach programs is non-existent. This leaves zoos vulnerable to criticisms as they have little to no evidence that their strategies support their missions, which target conservation outcomes. This study seeks to shed light on this gap by analyzing the impact that live animals have on offsite program participants' interests in animals and subsequent conservation outcomes. The theoretical lens is derived from the field of Conservation Psychology, which believes personal connections with nature serve as the motivational component to engagement with conservation efforts. Using pre, post, and delayed surveys combined with Zoomobile presentation observations, I analyzed the roles of sensory experiences in students' (N=197) development of animal interest and conservation behaviors. Results suggest that touching even one animal during presentations has a significant impact on conservation intents and sustainment of those intents. Although results on interest outcomes are conflicting, this study points to ways this kind of research can make significant contributions to zoo learning outcomes. Other significant variables, such as emotional predispositions and animal-related excitement, are discussed in light of future research directions.

Do Farmers Using Conventional and Non-Conventional Systems of Agriculture Have Different Perceptions of the Diversity of Wild Birds? Implications for Conservation.

PubMed

Silva-Andrade, Horasa Lima; de Andrade, Luciano Pires; Muniz, Lauana Souza; Telino-Júnior, Wallace Rodrigues; Albuquerque, Ulysses Paulino; Lyra-Neves, Rachel Maria

2016-01-01

Farmers' perceptions of birds' interactions with agricultural production systems are fundamental to species conservation efforts. In the present study, we evaluated the perceptions of birds held by farmers who engage in conventional and non-conventional agricultural production processes and the implications of potential differences in these perceptions on species conservation. To accomplish this, data were collected using questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and other complementary sources of information gathered from 191 farmers in northeastern Brazil. Although some similarities were identified among the farmers in their perceptions and local ecological knowledge (LEK) of birds, differences existed between the conventional and non-conventional farmers in their attitudes toward, conflicts with, and usage of bird species. Compared to the conventional farmers, the non-conventional farmers could identify more bird species, possessed more favorable attitudes toward birds, and engaged in practices more beneficial to the conservation of avifauna. The perceptions that were identified were related to the type of agriculture practiced, and such perceptions may affect the conservation of bird species. Therefore, the adoption of certain agricultural practices has important implications for conservation. Our results indicate the need for investment in public policies, programs and actions that account for farmers' knowledge and perceptions. Such investments will contribute to the development and adoption of practices supporting wild bird conservation in agricultural areas.

Effects of Governance on Availability of Land for Agriculture and Conservation in Brazil.

PubMed

Sparovek, Gerd; Barretto, Alberto Giaroli de Oliveira Pereira; Matsumoto, Marcelo; Berndes, Göran

2015-09-01

The 2012 revision of the Brazilian Forest Act changed the relative importance of private and public governance for nature conservation and agricultural production. We present a spatially explicit land-use model for Brazilian agricultural production and nature conservation that considers the spatial distribution of agricultural land suitability, technological and management options, legal command, and control frameworks including the Atlantic Forest Law, the revised Forest Act, and the Amazonian land-titling, "Terra Legal," and also market-driven land use regulations. The model is used to analyze land use allocation under three scenarios with varying priorities among agricultural production and environmental protection objectives. In all scenarios, the legal command and control frameworks were the most important determinants of conservation outcomes, protecting at least 80% of the existing natural vegetation. Situations where such frameworks are not expected to be effective can be identified and targeted for additional conservation (beyond legal requirements) through voluntary actions or self-regulation in response to markets. All scenarios allow for a substantial increase in crop production, using an area 1.5-2.7 times the current cropland area, with much of new cropland occurring on current pastureland. Current public arrangements that promote conservation can, in conjunction with voluntary schemes on private lands where conversion to agriculture is favored, provide important additional nature conservation without conflicting with national agricultural production objectives.

Conservation of the Eastern Taiwan Strait Chinese White Dolphin (Sousa chinensis): Fishers' Perspectives and Management Implications.

PubMed

Liu, Ta-Kang; Wang, Yu-Cheng; Chuang, Laurence Zsu-Hsin; Chen, Chih-How

2016-01-01

The abundance of the eastern Taiwan Strait (ETS) population of the Chinese white dolphin (Sousa chinensis) has been estimated to be less than 100 individuals. It is categorized as critically endangered in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Thus, immediate measures of conservation should be taken to protect it from extinction. Currently, the Taiwanese government plans to designate its habitat as a Major Wildlife Habitat (MWH), a type of marine protected area (MPA) for conservation of wildlife species. Although the designation allows continuing the current exploitation, however, it may cause conflicts among multiple stakeholders with competing interests. The study is to explore the attitude and opinions among the stakeholders in order to better manage the MPA. This study employs a semi-structured interview and a questionnaire survey of local fishers. Results from interviews indicated that the subsistence of fishers remains a major problem. It was found that stakeholders have different perceptions of the fishers' attitude towards conservation and also thought that the fishery-related law enforcement could be difficult. Quantitative survey showed that fishers are generally positive towards the conservation of the Chinese white dolphin but are less willing to participate in the planning process. Most fishers considered temporary fishing closure as feasible for conservation. The results of this study provide recommendations for future efforts towards the goal of better conservation for this endangered species.

Conservation of the Eastern Taiwan Strait Chinese White Dolphin (Sousa chinensis): Fishers' Perspectives and Management Implications

PubMed Central

Liu, Ta-Kang; Wang, Yu-Cheng; Chuang, Laurence Zsu-Hsin; Chen, Chih-How

2016-01-01

The abundance of the eastern Taiwan Strait (ETS) population of the Chinese white dolphin (Sousa chinensis) has been estimated to be less than 100 individuals. It is categorized as critically endangered in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Thus, immediate measures of conservation should be taken to protect it from extinction. Currently, the Taiwanese government plans to designate its habitat as a Major Wildlife Habitat (MWH), a type of marine protected area (MPA) for conservation of wildlife species. Although the designation allows continuing the current exploitation, however, it may cause conflicts among multiple stakeholders with competing interests. The study is to explore the attitude and opinions among the stakeholders in order to better manage the MPA. This study employs a semi-structured interview and a questionnaire survey of local fishers. Results from interviews indicated that the subsistence of fishers remains a major problem. It was found that stakeholders have different perceptions of the fishers’ attitude towards conservation and also thought that the fishery-related law enforcement could be difficult. Quantitative survey showed that fishers are generally positive towards the conservation of the Chinese white dolphin but are less willing to participate in the planning process. Most fishers considered temporary fishing closure as feasible for conservation. The results of this study provide recommendations for future efforts towards the goal of better conservation for this endangered species. PMID:27526102

Do Farmers Using Conventional and Non-Conventional Systems of Agriculture Have Different Perceptions of the Diversity of Wild Birds? Implications for Conservation

PubMed Central

de Andrade, Luciano Pires; Muniz, Lauana Souza; Telino-Júnior, Wallace Rodrigues; Albuquerque, Ulysses Paulino; Lyra-Neves, Rachel Maria

2016-01-01

Farmers’ perceptions of birds’ interactions with agricultural production systems are fundamental to species conservation efforts. In the present study, we evaluated the perceptions of birds held by farmers who engage in conventional and non-conventional agricultural production processes and the implications of potential differences in these perceptions on species conservation. To accomplish this, data were collected using questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, and other complementary sources of information gathered from 191 farmers in northeastern Brazil. Although some similarities were identified among the farmers in their perceptions and local ecological knowledge (LEK) of birds, differences existed between the conventional and non-conventional farmers in their attitudes toward, conflicts with, and usage of bird species. Compared to the conventional farmers, the non-conventional farmers could identify more bird species, possessed more favorable attitudes toward birds, and engaged in practices more beneficial to the conservation of avifauna. The perceptions that were identified were related to the type of agriculture practiced, and such perceptions may affect the conservation of bird species. Therefore, the adoption of certain agricultural practices has important implications for conservation. Our results indicate the need for investment in public policies, programs and actions that account for farmers’ knowledge and perceptions. Such investments will contribute to the development and adoption of practices supporting wild bird conservation in agricultural areas. PMID:27243222

Multi-scale connectivity and graph theory highlight critical areas for conservation under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dilts, Thomas E.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Leitner, Phillip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Inman, Richard D.; Nussear, Ken E.; Esque, Todd C.

2016-01-01

Conservation planning and biodiversity management require information on landscape connectivity across a range of spatial scales from individual home ranges to large regions. Reduction in landscape connectivity due changes in land-use or development is expected to act synergistically with alterations to habitat mosaic configuration arising from climate change. We illustrate a multi-scale connectivity framework to aid habitat conservation prioritization in the context of changing land use and climate. Our approach, which builds upon the strengths of multiple landscape connectivity methods including graph theory, circuit theory and least-cost path analysis, is here applied to the conservation planning requirements of the Mohave ground squirrel. The distribution of this California threatened species, as for numerous other desert species, overlaps with the proposed placement of several utility-scale renewable energy developments in the American Southwest. Our approach uses information derived at three spatial scales to forecast potential changes in habitat connectivity under various scenarios of energy development and climate change. By disentangling the potential effects of habitat loss and fragmentation across multiple scales, we identify priority conservation areas for both core habitat and critical corridor or stepping stone habitats. This approach is a first step toward applying graph theory to analyze habitat connectivity for species with continuously-distributed habitat, and should be applicable across a broad range of taxa.

Conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in southwestern Kansas: from the wells to people, a holistic coupled natural-human model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aistrup, Joseph A.; Bulatewicz, Tom; Kulcsar, Laszlo J.; Peterson, Jeffrey M.; Welch, Stephen M.; Steward, David R.

2017-12-01

The impact of water policy on conserving the Ogallala Aquifer in Groundwater Management District 3 (GMD3) in southwestern Kansas is analyzed using a system-level theoretical approach integrating agricultural water and land use patterns, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In so doing, we (1) model the current hyper-extractive coupled natural-human (CNH) system, (2) forecast outcomes of policy scenarios transitioning the current groundwater-based economic system toward more sustainable paths for the social, economic, and natural components of the integrated system, and (3) develop public policy options for enhanced conservation while minimizing the economic costs for the region's communities. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities. However, we also find that the expanded presence of irrigated acreage reduces the impact of an increasingly drier climate on the region's economy and creates greater long-term stability in the farming sector along with increased employment and population in the region. On the negative side, conservation lowers the net present value of farmers' current investments and there is not a policy scenario that achieves a truly sustainable solution as defined by Peter H. Gleick. This study reinforces the salience of interdisciplinary linked CNH models to provide policy prescriptions to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues.

Targeted conservation to safeguard a biodiversity hotspot from climate and land-cover change.

PubMed

Struebig, Matthew J; Wilting, Andreas; Gaveau, David L A; Meijaard, Erik; Smith, Robert J; Fischer, Manuela; Metcalfe, Kristian; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie

2015-02-02

Responses of biodiversity to changes in both land cover and climate are recognized [1] but still poorly understood [2]. This poses significant challenges for spatial planning as species could shift, contract, expand, or maintain their range inside or outside protected areas [2-4]. We examine this problem in Borneo, a global biodiversity hotspot [5], using spatial prioritization analyses that maximize species conservation under multiple environmental-change forecasts. Climate projections indicate that 11%-36% of Bornean mammal species will lose ≥ 30% of their habitat by 2080, and suitable ecological conditions will shift upslope for 23%-46%. Deforestation exacerbates this process, increasing the proportion of species facing comparable habitat loss to 30%-49%, a 2-fold increase on historical trends. Accommodating these distributional changes will require conserving land outside existing protected areas, but this may be less than anticipated from models incorporating deforestation alone because some species will colonize high-elevation reserves. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of upland reserves and that relatively small additions (16,000-28,000 km(2)) to the current conservation estate could provide substantial benefits to biodiversity facing changes to land cover and climate. On Borneo, much of this land is under forestry jurisdiction, warranting targeted conservation partnerships to safeguard biodiversity in an era of global change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The social ecology of resolving family conflict among West African immigrants in New York: a grounded theory approach.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Andrew; Chu, Tracy; Akinsulure-Smith, Adeyinka M; Keatley, Eva

2013-09-01

The current study employs a grounded theory approach to examine West African immigrants' resolution of parent-child conflict and intimate partner conflict. Data from 59 participants present an interactive social ecological framework, where a lack of resolution at one level results in attempts to resolve problems at higher levels. Four levels are identified within West African immigrants' problem solving ecology, each with specific actors in positions of authority: individual/dyadic (parents and spouses), extended family (which includes distant relatives and relatives living in home countries), community leadership (non-family elders and religious leaders), and state authorities. From participants' descriptions of family challenges emerged a picture of a social ecology in flux, with traditional, socially conservative modes of resolving family conflict transposed across migration into the more liberal and state-oriented familial context of the United States. This transposition results in a loss spiral for the traditional social ecology, differentially affecting individual actors within families. Implications for helping professionals working with new immigrant communities include identifying variability in openness to adapting structures that are not working well (e.g., patriarchal protection of abusive husbands) and supporting structures known to be associated with well being (e.g., collective monitoring of youth).

When the customer is unethical: the explanatory role of employee emotional exhaustion onto work-family conflict, relationship conflict with coworkers, and job neglect.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Rebecca L; Quade, Matthew J; Mawritz, Mary B; Kim, Joongseo; Crosby, Durand

2014-11-01

We integrate deontological ethics (Folger, 1998, 2001; Kant, 1785/1948, 1797/1991) with conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) to propose that an employee's repeated exposure to violations of moral principle can diminish the availability of resources to appropriately attend to other personal and work domains. In particular, we identify customer unethical behavior as a morally charged work demand that leads to a depletion of resources as captured by employee emotional exhaustion. In turn, emotionally exhausted employees experience higher levels of work-family conflict, relationship conflict with coworkers, and job neglect. Employee emotional exhaustion serves as the mediator between customer unethical behavior and such outcomes. To provide further evidence of a deontological effect, we demonstrate the unique effect of customer unethical behavior onto emotional exhaustion beyond perceptions of personal mistreatment and trait negative affectivity. In Study 1, we found support for our theoretical model using multisource field data from customer-service professionals across a variety of industries. In Study 2, we also found support for our theoretical model using multisource, longitudinal field data from service employees in a large government organization. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

A Reanalysis of Occupation and Suicide: Negative Perceptions of the Workplace Linked to Suicide Attempts.

PubMed

Howard, Matt; Krannitz, Morgan

2017-11-17

Suicide is the ultimate outcome of poor psychological well-being; however, there is a paucity of research examining the link between occupation and suicide, despite early academic interest and the known importance of work to our everyday lives. We propose that this body of research was abandoned prematurely, and we provide a reanalysis by integrating the Job Characteristics Model and the Conservation of Resources model with extant suicide research. Specifically, we hypothesize that work design characteristics (job autonomy, task variety, physical demands) and threats to personal resources (absence of viewing work-as-career, work-family conflict, family-work conflict, job dissatisfaction) are linked to suicide attempts via depression and suicidal ideation. Utilizing three measurement occasions and 2,855 participants from the AddHealth database, our findings indicate that job autonomy, task variety, work-family conflict, family-work conflict, and job dissatisfaction all indirectly contribute to employees' suicide attempts via depression and suicidal ideation. Thus, negative employee perceptions of the workplace environment have much more severe consequences than is typically examined. Based on these results, we provide recommendations for developing a theoretically derived nomological net around suicidal behavior in an organizational context, and offer strategies for managers and employees to construct a work environment that is conducive to employee well-being.

Evaluation of participatory planning: Lessons from Hungarian Natura 2000 management planning processes.

PubMed

Kovács, Eszter; Kelemen, Eszter; Kiss, Gabriella; Kalóczkai, Ágnes; Fabók, Veronika; Mihók, Barbara; Megyesi, Boldizsár; Pataki, György; Bodorkós, Barbara; Balázs, Bálint; Bela, Györgyi; Margóczi, Katalin; Roboz, Ágnes; Molnár, Dániel

2017-12-15

Stakeholder participation in nature conservation policies and especially in the management of protected areas has gained importance in the last decades. These changes are underlined by democratic principles and the perceived contribution of stakeholder involvement to the effectiveness of conservation management. Evaluating participatory processes is essential to learn about the past and thus increase the quality of future processes. The evaluation can be useful for the organisations responsible for planning and management, stakeholders and policy makers as well. The present paper shows the results of a systematic evaluation of 25 participatory processes related to the development of management plans for Natura 2000 sites in Hungary between 2007 and 2015. A conceptual framework was developed to evaluate the process and outcome of participatory management planning processes. Criteria were based on the scientific literature on public participation and tailored to conservation-related management planning and stakeholder involvement. Evaluated processes were grouped in three cases based on their time range and financial sources. Overall, the analysed processes scored at a medium level, showing better performance in the process criteria than in the outcome criteria. The best case scored significantly higher in four criteria compared to the other cases: representativeness, resource availability for facilitation, new, creative ideas and impact on the plan. The main factors behind the success were (1) embeddedness of the planning process in a larger project, where the plan was a tool for conservation, (2) carrying out only one process at a time, (3) previous experience of facilitators and planners with participatory planning and (4) the opportunity and capacity to propose a payment scheme as an incentive. But even this case received low scores in some criteria: conflict resolution, early involvement and well defined goals. Based on the results we suggest that more data is needed to evaluate the implementation of the plans and, in many cases, the impact of the process on the plan. Performance can be improved with the assistance of policy makers by further developing guidelines, harmonising payment schemes with the conservation measures of the plans and providing training on conflict resolution. The evaluation framework proved to be suitable for the assessment of a large set of conservation related management planning processes, but it also had some limitations, e.g. concerning the incorporation of stakeholders' views in the evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Resource Wars and Conflict Ivory: The Impact of Civil Conflict on Elephants in the Democratic Republic of Congo - The Case of the Okapi Reserve

PubMed Central

Beyers, Rene L.; Hart, John A.; Sinclair, Anthony R. E.; Grossmann, Falk; Klinkenberg, Brian; Dino, Simeon

2011-01-01

Human conflict generally has substantial negative impacts on wildlife and conservation. The recent civil war (1995-2006) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) resulted in a significant loss of wildlife, including elephants, due to institutional collapse, lawlessness and unbridled exploitation of natural resources such as minerals, wood, ivory and bushmeat. We used data from distance sampling surveys conducted before and after the war in a protected forest, the Okapi Faunal Reserve, to document changes in elephant abundance and distribution. We employed Generalized Additive Models to relate changes in elephant distribution to human and environmental factors. Populations declined by nearly fifty percent coinciding with a major increase in elephant poaching as indicated by reports of ivory trade during the war. Our results suggest that humans influenced elephant distribution far more than habitat, both before and after the war, but post-war models explained more of the variation. Elephant abundance declined more, closer to the park boundary and to areas of intense human activity. After the war, elephant densities were relatively higher in the centre of the park where they were better protected, suggesting that this area may have acted as a refuge. In other sites in Eastern DRC, where no protection was provided, elephants were even more decimated. Post-war dynamics, such as weakened institutions, human movements and availability of weapons, continue to affect elephants. Survival of remaining populations and recovery will be determined by these persistent factors and by new threats associated with growing human populations and exploitation of natural resources. Prioritizing wildlife protection, curbing illegal trade in ivory and bushmeat, and strengthening national institutions and organizations in charge of conservation will be crucial to counter these threats. PMID:22096529

Resource wars and conflict ivory: the impact of civil conflict on elephants in the Democratic Republic of Congo--the case of the Okapi Reserve.

PubMed

Beyers, Rene L; Hart, John A; Sinclair, Anthony R E; Grossmann, Falk; Klinkenberg, Brian; Dino, Simeon

2011-01-01

Human conflict generally has substantial negative impacts on wildlife and conservation. The recent civil war (1995-2006) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) resulted in a significant loss of wildlife, including elephants, due to institutional collapse, lawlessness and unbridled exploitation of natural resources such as minerals, wood, ivory and bushmeat. We used data from distance sampling surveys conducted before and after the war in a protected forest, the Okapi Faunal Reserve, to document changes in elephant abundance and distribution. We employed Generalized Additive Models to relate changes in elephant distribution to human and environmental factors. Populations declined by nearly fifty percent coinciding with a major increase in elephant poaching as indicated by reports of ivory trade during the war. Our results suggest that humans influenced elephant distribution far more than habitat, both before and after the war, but post-war models explained more of the variation. Elephant abundance declined more, closer to the park boundary and to areas of intense human activity. After the war, elephant densities were relatively higher in the centre of the park where they were better protected, suggesting that this area may have acted as a refuge. In other sites in Eastern DRC, where no protection was provided, elephants were even more decimated. Post-war dynamics, such as weakened institutions, human movements and availability of weapons, continue to affect elephants. Survival of remaining populations and recovery will be determined by these persistent factors and by new threats associated with growing human populations and exploitation of natural resources. Prioritizing wildlife protection, curbing illegal trade in ivory and bushmeat, and strengthening national institutions and organizations in charge of conservation will be crucial to counter these threats.

Detusking fence-breaker elephants as an approach in human-elephant conflict mitigation.

PubMed

Mutinda, Matthew; Chenge, Geoffrey; Gakuya, Francis; Otiende, Moses; Omondi, Patrick; Kasiki, Samuel; Soriguer, Ramón C; Alasaad, Samer

2014-01-01

Human-elephant conflict (HEC) is a recurring problem that appears wherever the range of elephants and humans overlap. Different methods including the use of electric fences are used worldwide to mitigate this conflict. Nonetheless, elephants learn quickly that their tusks do not conduct electricity and use them to break down fences (fence-breakers). In Lewa Wildlife Conservancy, Kenya, destructive elephants (Loxodonta africana) were monitored between 2010 and 2013. The fence-breaking rate reached four incidents (fence-breaking) per elephant per 100 days. Ten bull males and 57 females were identified as fence-breakers. The bulls were involved in 85.07% and the females in 14.93% of incidents. The Kenya Wildlife Service approved detusking (partial cutting of tusks) in four of the 10 fence-breakers as a way of preventing them from breaking down fences, thereby mitigating HEC in the Conservancy. The result of the detusking was a drastic six-fold reduction in damage to fences (range: 1.67 to 14.5 times less fence-breaking) by the four worst fence-breaker elephants, because with trimmed tusks elephants lack the tools to break down fences. Detusking could not totally eliminate fence destruction because, despite lacking their tools, elephants can still destroy fences using their heads, bodies and trunks, albeit less effectively. On the other hand, apart from inherent aesthetic considerations, the detusking of elephants may have certain negative effects on factors such as elephants' social hierarchies, breeding, mate selection and their access to essential minerals and food. Elephant detusking seems to be effective in drastically reducing fence-breaking incidents, nonetheless its negative effects on behaviour, access to food and its aesthetical consequences still need to be further studied and investigated.

Detusking Fence-Breaker Elephants as an Approach in Human-Elephant Conflict Mitigation

PubMed Central

Mutinda, Matthew; Chenge, Geoffrey; Gakuya, Francis; Otiende, Moses; Omondi, Patrick; Kasiki, Samuel; Soriguer, Ramón C.; Alasaad, Samer

2014-01-01

Background Human-elephant conflict (HEC) is a recurring problem that appears wherever the range of elephants and humans overlap. Different methods including the use of electric fences are used worldwide to mitigate this conflict. Nonetheless, elephants learn quickly that their tusks do not conduct electricity and use them to break down fences (fence-breakers). Methodology/Principal Findings In Lewa Wildlife Conservancy, Kenya, destructive elephants (Loxodonta africana) were monitored between 2010 and 2013. The fence-breaking rate reached four incidents (fence-breaking) per elephant per 100 days. Ten bull males and 57 females were identified as fence-breakers. The bulls were involved in 85.07% and the females in 14.93% of incidents. The Kenya Wildlife Service approved detusking (partial cutting of tusks) in four of the 10 fence-breakers as a way of preventing them from breaking down fences, thereby mitigating HEC in the Conservancy. The result of the detusking was a drastic six-fold reduction in damage to fences (range: 1.67 to 14.5 times less fence-breaking) by the four worst fence-breaker elephants, because with trimmed tusks elephants lack the tools to break down fences. Detusking could not totally eliminate fence destruction because, despite lacking their tools, elephants can still destroy fences using their heads, bodies and trunks, albeit less effectively. On the other hand, apart from inherent aesthetic considerations, the detusking of elephants may have certain negative effects on factors such as elephants' social hierarchies, breeding, mate selection and their access to essential minerals and food. Conclusions Elephant detusking seems to be effective in drastically reducing fence-breaking incidents, nonetheless its negative effects on behaviour, access to food and its aesthetical consequences still need to be further studied and investigated. PMID:24614538

Patterns of livestock depredation by tiger (Panthera tigris) and leopard (Panthera pardus) in and around Corbett Tiger Reserve, Uttarakhand, India.

PubMed

Bargali, Harendra Singh; Ahmed, Tanveer

2018-01-01

India with estimated more than 2000 tigers (across 18 states) accounts for more than half of the remaining tigers across its range countries. Long-term conservation requires measures to protect the large carnivores and its prey base beyond the Protect Areas. The Corbett Tiger Reserve (CTR) and adjoining forest divisions with high density of tigers play a crucial role in conservation of tiger in Uttarakhand state as well as the Terai-Arc Landscape. However, CTR is surrounded with multiple-use forest (forest divisions), agriculture land, human habitation, townships and developmental projects. The movement of large carnivores and other wildlife through such habitats adds to the chances of human-wildlife conflict. The aim of the current study was to understand the patterns of livestock depredation by tigers and leopards in and around CTR. We examined a total of 8365 incidents of livestock depredation between 2006 and 2015 with tigers killing more livestock in a year (573.3±41.2) than leopards (263.2±9.9). Geographically, in north zone of CTR leopards were the major livestock predator (166.6±11), whereas tigers (547.7±40.1) in south zone. Examination of livestock kills indicated cows (75%) as the main victim, followed by buffaloes and other species. Analysis revealed that the livestock depredation by tigers varied significantly among seasons in south zone but not in north zone. However, such an explicit seasonal variation was not observed for leopards in north and south zone of CTR. Hotspots of livestock predation were identified around CTR. Addressing a conflict situation in a time-bound manner, timely disbursement of ex-gratia payment, involving locals at various tourism related activities and consistent rapport building initiatives are required to mitigate the human-wildlife conflict.

Ecological ethics in captivity: balancing values and responsibilities in zoo and aquarium research under rapid global change.

PubMed

Minteer, Ben A; Collins, James P

2013-01-01

Ethical obligations to animals in conservation research and management are manifold and often conflicting. Animal welfare concerns often clash with the ethical imperative to understand and conserve a population or ecosystem through research and management intervention. The accelerating pace and impact of global environmental change, especially climate change, complicates our understanding of these obligations. One example is the blurring of the distinction between ex situ (zoo- and aquarium-based) conservation and in situ (field-based) approaches as zoos and aquariums become more active in field conservation work and as researchers and managers consider more intensive interventions in wild populations and ecosystems to meet key conservation goals. These shifts, in turn, have consequences for our traditional understanding of the ethics of wildlife research and management, including our relative weighting of animal welfare and conservation commitments across rapidly evolving ex situ and in situ contexts. Although this changing landscape in many ways supports the increased use of captive wildlife in conservation-relevant research, it raises significant ethical concerns about human intervention in populations and ecosystems, including the proper role of zoos and aquariums as centers for animal research and conservation in the coming decades. Working through these concerns requires a pragmatic approach to ethical analysis, one that is able to make trade-offs among the many goods at stake (e.g., animal welfare, species viability, and ecological integrity) as we strive to protect species from further decline and extinction in this century.

Winners and losers of national and global efforts to reconcile agricultural intensification and biodiversity conservation.

PubMed

Egli, Lukas; Meyer, Carsten; Scherber, Christoph; Kreft, Holger; Tscharntke, Teja

2018-05-01

Closing yield gaps within existing croplands, and thereby avoiding further habitat conversions, is a prominently and controversially discussed strategy to meet the rising demand for agricultural products, while minimizing biodiversity impacts. The agricultural intensification associated with such a strategy poses additional threats to biodiversity within agricultural landscapes. The uneven spatial distribution of both yield gaps and biodiversity provides opportunities for reconciling agricultural intensification and biodiversity conservation through spatially optimized intensification. Here, we integrate distribution and habitat information for almost 20,000 vertebrate species with land-cover and land-use datasets. We estimate that projected agricultural intensification between 2000 and 2040 would reduce the global biodiversity value of agricultural lands by 11%, relative to 2000. Contrasting these projections with spatial land-use optimization scenarios reveals that 88% of projected biodiversity loss could be avoided through globally coordinated land-use planning, implying huge efficiency gains through international cooperation. However, global-scale optimization also implies a highly uneven distribution of costs and benefits, resulting in distinct "winners and losers" in terms of national economic development, food security, food sovereignty or conservation. Given conflicting national interests and lacking effective governance mechanisms to guarantee equitable compensation of losers, multinational land-use optimization seems politically unlikely. In turn, 61% of projected biodiversity loss could be avoided through nationally focused optimization, and 33% through optimization within just 10 countries. Targeted efforts to improve the capacity for integrated land-use planning for sustainable intensification especially in these countries, including the strengthening of institutions that can arbitrate subnational land-use conflicts, may offer an effective, yet politically feasible, avenue to better reconcile future trade-offs between agriculture and conservation. The efficiency gains of optimization remained robust when assuming that yields could only be increased to 80% of their potential. Our results highlight the need to better integrate real-world governance, political and economic challenges into sustainable development and global change mitigation research. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.