Sample records for forecasting dissolved gases

  1. An experimental study on the cavitation of water with dissolved gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Buxuan; Gu, Youwei; Chen, Min

    2017-12-01

    Cavitation inception is generally determined by the tensile strengths of liquids. Investigations on the tensile strength of water, which is essential in many fields, will help understand the promotion/prevention of cavitation and related applications in water. Previous experimental studies, however, vary in their conclusions about the value of tensile strength of water; the difference is commonly attributed to the existence of impurities in water. Dissolved gases, especially oxygen and nitrogen from the air, are one of the most common kinds of impurities in water. The influence of these gases on the tensile strength of water is still unclear. This study investigated the effects of dissolved gases on water cavitation through experiments. Cavitation in water is generated by acoustic method. Water samples are prepared with dissolved oxygen and nitrogen in different gas concentrations. Results show that under the same temperature, the tensile strength of water with dissolved oxygen or nitrogen decreases with increased gas concentration compared with that of ultrapure water. Under the same gas concentration and temperature, water with dissolved oxygen shows a lower tensile strength than that with dissolved nitrogen. Possible reasons of these results are also discussed.

  2. Geochemistry of dissolved gases in the hypersaline Orca basin. Technical report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wiesenburg, D.A.

    1980-12-01

    Hypersaline, anoxic waters significantly affect the biogeochemistry of dissolved gases in the Orca Basin (Northern Gulf of Mexico). The high stability of the Orca brine pool makes it an ideal laboratory for studying production and consumption of dissolved gases during anaerobic decomposition. Depth distributions were determined for nitrogen, oxygen, argon, methane, ethane, propane, ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, and nitrous oxide. Physical stratification of the water column strongly influences Orca Basin gas distributions. The high salinity brine (approx. 250%) is internally well mixed due to convective overturning, but transfer across the brine-sea water interface is controlled by molecular diffusion. With a molecularmore » diffusivity of 0.00001 sq cm/sec, it will take 1,000,000 years for all salts to diffuse from the basin. Heat diffuses faster than salt and is lost from the basin at a rate of 0.5 microcal sq cm/sec. If geothermal heat input from the sediments is slightly higher, this input could account for the higher temperature in the brine (5.6C) compared to the deep Gulf waters (4.2 C). This study has shown the utility of dissolved gases in examining water chemistry of unusual areas. Since sources of dissolved gases are independent of the sources of major ions in solution, calculations of gas distributions on a salt-free basis are useful in examining production and consumption processes.« less

  3. Transport of dissolved gases through unsaturated porous media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maryshev, B. S.

    2017-06-01

    The natural porous media (e.g. soil, sand, peat etc.) usually are partially saturated by groundwater. The saturation of soil depends on hydrostatic pressure which is linearly increased with depth. Often some gases (e.g. nitrogen, oxygen, carbon dioxide, methane etc.) are dissolved into the groundwater. The solubility of gases is very small because of that two assumptions is applied: I. The concentration of gas is equal to solubility, II. Solubility depends only on pressure (for isothermal systems). In this way some part of dissolved gas transfers from the solution to the bubble phase. The gas bubbles are immovably trapped in a porous matrix by surface-tension forces and the dominant mechanism of transport of gas mass becomes the diffusion of gas molecules through the liquid. If the value of water content is small then the transport of gas becomes slow and gas accumulates into bubble phase. The presence of bubble phase additionally decreases the water content and slows down the transport. As result the significant mass of gas should be accumulated into the massif of porous media. We derive the transport equations and find the solution which is demonstrated the accumulation of gases. The influence of saturation, porosity and filtration velocity to accumulation process is investigated and discussed.

  4. A Ni-Doped Carbon Nanotube Sensor for Detecting Oil-Dissolved Gases in Transformers.

    PubMed

    Lu, Jia; Zhang, Xiaoxing; Wu, Xiaoqing; Dai, Ziqiang; Zhang, Jinbin

    2015-06-09

    C2H2, C2H4, and C2H6 are important oil-dissolved gases in power transformers. Detection of the composition and content of oil-dissolved gases in transformers is very significant in the diagnosis and assessment of the state of transformer operations. The commonly used oil-gas analysis methods have many disadvantages, so this paper proposes a Ni-doped carbon nanotube (Ni-CNT) gas sensor to effectively detect oil-dissolved gases in a transformer. The gas-sensing properties of the sensor to C2H2, C2H4, and C2H6 were studied using the test device. Based on the density functional theory (DFT) the adsorption behaviors of the three gases on intrinsic carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and Ni-CNTs were calculated. The adsorption energy, charge transfer, and molecular frontier orbital of the adsorption system were also analyzed. Results showed that the sensitivity of the CNT sensor to the three kinds of gases was in the following order: C2H2 > C2H4 > C2H6. Moreover, the doped Ni improved the sensor response, and the sensor response and gas concentration have a good linear relationship.

  5. A Ni-Doped Carbon Nanotube Sensor for Detecting Oil-Dissolved Gases in Transformers

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Jia; Zhang, Xiaoxing; Wu, Xiaoqing; Dai, Ziqiang; Zhang, Jinbin

    2015-01-01

    C2H2, C2H4, and C2H6 are important oil-dissolved gases in power transformers. Detection of the composition and content of oil-dissolved gases in transformers is very significant in the diagnosis and assessment of the state of transformer operations. The commonly used oil-gas analysis methods have many disadvantages, so this paper proposes a Ni-doped carbon nanotube (Ni-CNT) gas sensor to effectively detect oil-dissolved gases in a transformer. The gas-sensing properties of the sensor to C2H2, C2H4, and C2H6 were studied using the test device. Based on the density functional theory (DFT) the adsorption behaviors of the three gases on intrinsic carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and Ni-CNTs were calculated. The adsorption energy, charge transfer, and molecular frontier orbital of the adsorption system were also analyzed. Results showed that the sensitivity of the CNT sensor to the three kinds of gases was in the following order: C2H2 > C2H4 > C2H6. Moreover, the doped Ni improved the sensor response, and the sensor response and gas concentration have a good linear relationship. PMID:26066989

  6. Thermodynamic properties of gases dissolved in electrolyte solutions.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tiepel, E. W.; Gubbins, K. E.

    1973-01-01

    A method based on perturbation theory for mixtures is applied to the prediction of thermodynamic properties of gases dissolved in electrolyte solutions. The theory is compared with experimental data for the dependence of the solute activity coefficient on concentration, temperature, and pressure; calculations are included for partial molal enthalpy and volume of the dissolved gas. The theory is also compared with previous theories for salt effects and found to be superior. The calculations are best for salting-out systems. The qualitative feature of salting-in is predicted by the theory, but quantitative predictions are not satisfactory for such systems; this is attributed to approximations made in evaluating the perturbation terms.

  7. Effect of Greenhouse Gases Dissolved in Seawater

    PubMed Central

    Matsunaga, Shigeki

    2015-01-01

    A molecular dynamics simulation has been performed on the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane dissolved in a sodium chloride aqueous solution, as a simple model of seawater. A carbon dioxide molecule is also treated as a hydrogen carbonate ion. The structure, coordination number, diffusion coefficient, shear viscosity, specific heat, and thermal conductivity of the solutions have been discussed. The anomalous behaviors of these properties, especially the negative pressure dependence of thermal conductivity, have been observed in the higher-pressure region. PMID:26729101

  8. Effect of Greenhouse Gases Dissolved in Seawater.

    PubMed

    Matsunaga, Shigeki

    2015-12-30

    A molecular dynamics simulation has been performed on the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane dissolved in a sodium chloride aqueous solution, as a simple model of seawater. A carbon dioxide molecule is also treated as a hydrogen carbonate ion. The structure, coordination number, diffusion coefficient, shear viscosity, specific heat, and thermal conductivity of the solutions have been discussed. The anomalous behaviors of these properties, especially the negative pressure dependence of thermal conductivity, have been observed in the higher-pressure region.

  9. Adsorption of Dissolved Gases (CH4, CO2, H2, Noble Gases) by Water-Saturated Smectite Clay Minerals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourg, I. C.; Gadikota, G.; Dazas, B.

    2016-12-01

    Adsorption of dissolved gases by water-saturated clay minerals plays important roles in a range of fields. For example, gas adsorption in on clay minerals may significantly impact the formation of CH4 hydrates in fine-grained sediments, the behavior of CH4 in shale, CO2 leakage across caprocks of geologic CO2 sequestration sites, H2 leakage across engineered clay barriers of high-level radioactive waste repositories, and noble gas geochemistry reconstructions of hydrocarbon migration in the subsurface. Despite its importance, the adsorption of gases on clay minerals remains poorly understood. For example, some studies have suggested that clay surfaces promote the formation of CH4 hydrates, whereas others indicate that clay surfaces inhibit the formation of CH4 hydrates. Here, we present molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the adsorption of a range of gases (CH4, CO2, H2, noble gases) on clay mineral surfaces. Our results indicate that the affinity of dissolved gases for clay mineral surfaces has a non-monotone dependence on the hydrated radius of the gas molecules. This non-monotone dependence arises from a combination of two effects: the polar nature of certain gas molecules (in particular, CO2) and the templating of interfacial water structure by the clay basal surface, which results in the presence of interfacial water "cages" of optimal size for intermediate-size gas molecules (such as Ne or Ar).

  10. Greenhouse gases dissolved in soil solution - often ignored, but important?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weymann, Daniel; Brueggemann, Nicolas; Puetz, Thomas; Vereecken, Harry

    2014-05-01

    Flux measurements of climate-relevant trace gases from soils are frequently undertaken in contemporary ecosystem studies and substantially contribute to our understanding of greenhouse gas balances of the biosphere. While the great majority of such investigations builds on closed chamber and eddy covariance measurements, where upward gas fluxes to the atmosphere are measured, fewest concurrently consider greenhouse gas dissolution in the seepage and leaching of dissolved gases via the vadose zone to the groundwater. Here we present annual leaching losses of dissolved N2O and CO2 from arable, grassland, and forest lysimeter soils from three sites differing in altitude and climate. We aim to assess their importance in comparison to direct N2O emission, soil respiration, and further leaching parameters of the C- and N cycle. The lysimeters are part of the Germany-wide lysimeter network initiative TERENO-SoilCan, which investigates feedbacks of climate change to the pedosphere on a long-term scale. Soil water samples were collected weekly from different depths of the profiles by means of suction cups. A laboratory pre-experiment proved that no degassing occurred under those sampling conditions. We applied the headspace equilibration technique to determine dissolved gas concentrations by gas chromatography. The seepage water of all lysimeters was consistently supersaturated with N2O and CO2 compared to water equilibrated ambient air. In terms of N2O, leaching losses increased in the ascending order forest, grassland, and arable soils, respectively. In case of the latter soils, we observed a strong variability of N2O, with dissolved concentrations up to 23 μg N L-1. However, since seepage discharge of the arable lysimeters was comparatively small and mostly limited to the hydrological winter season, leached N2O appeared to be less important than direct N2O emissions. In terms of dissolved CO2,our measurements revealed considerable leaching losses from the mountainous

  11. Influence of Gases Dissolved in Water to the Emergence of Ice Crystals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikula, V.

    2010-04-01

    Composition of gases dissolved in the body determines if the organism survives hypothermia or not. My work could have a major impact in terms of freezing and thawing of tissues, organs or whole organisms for their survival.

  12. Characterizing spatial and temporal variability of dissolved gases in aquatic environments with in situ mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Camilli, Richard; Duryea, Anthony N

    2009-07-01

    The TETHYS mass spectrometer is intended for long-term in situ observation of dissolved gases and volatile organic compounds in aquatic environments. Its design maintains excellent low mass range sensitivity and stability during long-term operations, enabling characterization of low-frequency variability in many trace dissolved gases. Results are presented from laboratory trials and a 300-h in situ trial in a shallow marine embayment in Massachusetts, U.S.A. This time series consists of over 15000 sample measurements and represents the longest continuous record made by an in situ mass spectrometer in an aquatic environment. These measurements possess sufficient sampling density and duration to apply frequency analysis techniques for study of temporal variability in dissolved gases. Results reveal correlations with specific environmental periodicities. Numerical methods are presented for converting mass spectrometer ion peak ratios to absolute-scale dissolved gas concentrations across wide temperature regimes irrespective of ambient pressure, during vertical water column profiles in a hypoxic deep marine basin off the coast of California, U.S.A. Dissolved oxygen concentration values obtained with the TETHYS instrument indicate close correlation with polarographic oxygen sensor data across the entire depth range. These methods and technology enable observation of aquatic environmental chemical distributions and dynamics at appropriate scales of resolution.

  13. Dissolved Gases and Ice Fracturing During the Freezing of a Multicellular Organism: Lessons from Tardigrades.

    PubMed

    Kletetschka, Gunther; Hruba, Jolana

    2015-01-01

    Three issues are critical for successful cryopreservation of multicellular material: gases dissolved in liquid, thermal conductivity of the tissue, and localization of microstructures. Here we show that heat distribution is controlled by the gas amount dissolved in liquids and that when changing the liquid into solid, the dissolved gases either form bubbles due to the absence of space in the lattice of solids and/or are migrated toward the concentrated salt and sugar solution at the cost of amount of heat required to be removed to complete a solid-state transition. These factors affect the heat distribution in the organs to be cryopreserved. We show that the gas concentration issue controls fracturing of ice when freezing. There are volumetric changes not only when changing the liquid into solid (volume increases) but also reduction of the volume when reaching lower temperatures (volume decreases). We discuss these issues parallel with observations of the cryosurvivability of multicellular organisms, tardigrades, and discuss their analogy for cryopreservation of large organs.

  14. Validation of reactive gases and aerosols in the MACC global analysis and forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eskes, H.; Huijnen, V.; Arola, A.; Benedictow, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Botek, E.; Boucher, O.; Bouarar, I.; Chabrillat, S.; Cuevas, E.; Engelen, R.; Flentje, H.; Gaudel, A.; Griesfeller, J.; Jones, L.; Kapsomenakis, J.; Katragkou, E.; Kinne, S.; Langerock, B.; Razinger, M.; Richter, A.; Schultz, M.; Schulz, M.; Sudarchikova, N.; Thouret, V.; Vrekoussis, M.; Wagner, A.; Zerefos, C.

    2015-11-01

    The European MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project is preparing the operational Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), one of the services of the European Copernicus Programme on Earth observation and environmental services. MACC uses data assimilation to combine in situ and remote sensing observations with global and regional models of atmospheric reactive gases, aerosols, and greenhouse gases, and is based on the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The global component of the MACC service has a dedicated validation activity to document the quality of the atmospheric composition products. In this paper we discuss the approach to validation that has been developed over the past 3 years. Topics discussed are the validation requirements, the operational aspects, the measurement data sets used, the structure of the validation reports, the models and assimilation systems validated, the procedure to introduce new upgrades, and the scoring methods. One specific target of the MACC system concerns forecasting special events with high-pollution concentrations. Such events receive extra attention in the validation process. Finally, a summary is provided of the results from the validation of the latest set of daily global analysis and forecast products from the MACC system reported in November 2014.

  15. Continuous monitoring of dissolved gases with membrane inlet mass spectrometry to fingerprint river biochemical activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vautier, Camille; Chatton, Eliot; Abbott, Benjamin; Harjung, Astrid; Labasque, Thierry; Guillou, Aurélie; Pannard, Alexandrine; Piscart, Christophe; Laverman, Anniet; Kolbe, Tamara; Massé, Stéphanie; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; Thomas, Zahra; Aquilina, Luc; Pinay, Gilles

    2017-04-01

    Water quality in rivers results from biogeochemical processes in contributing hydrological compartments (soils, aquifers, hyporheic and riparian zones) and biochemical activity in the river network itself. Consequently, chemical fluxes fluctuate on multiple spatial and temporal scales, leading eventually to complex concentration signals in rivers. We characterized these fluctuations with innovative continuous monitoring of dissolved gases, to quantify transport and reaction processes occurring in different hydrological compartments. We performed stream-scale experiments in two headwater streams in Brittany, France. Factorial injections of inorganic nitrogen (NH4NO3), inorganic phosphate (P2O5) and multiple sources of labile carbon (acetate, tryptophan) were implemented in the two streams. We used a new field application of membrane inlet mass spectrometry to continuously monitor dissolved gases for multiple day-night periods (Chatton et al., 2016). Quantified gases included He, O2, N2, CO2, CH4, N2O, and 15N of dissolved N2 and N2O. We calibrated and assessed the methodology with well-established complementary techniques including gas chromatography and high-frequency water quality sensors. Wet chemistry and radon analysis complemented the study. The analyses provided several methodological and ecological insights and demonstrated that high frequency variations linked to background noise can be efficiently determined and filtered to derive effective fluxes. From a more fundamental point of view, the tested stream segments were fully characterized with extensive sampling of riverbeds and laboratory experiments, allowing scaling of point-level microbial and invertebrate diversity and activity on in-stream processing. This innovative technology allows fully-controlled in-situ experiments providing rich information with a high signal to noise ratio. We present the integrated nutrient demand and uptake and discuss limiting processes and elements at the reach and

  16. Dissolved Gases and Ice Fracturing During the Freezing of a Multicellular Organism: Lessons from Tardigrades

    PubMed Central

    Kletetschka, Gunther; Hruba, Jolana

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Three issues are critical for successful cryopreservation of multicellular material: gases dissolved in liquid, thermal conductivity of the tissue, and localization of microstructures. Here we show that heat distribution is controlled by the gas amount dissolved in liquids and that when changing the liquid into solid, the dissolved gases either form bubbles due to the absence of space in the lattice of solids and/or are migrated toward the concentrated salt and sugar solution at the cost of amount of heat required to be removed to complete a solid-state transition. These factors affect the heat distribution in the organs to be cryopreserved. We show that the gas concentration issue controls fracturing of ice when freezing. There are volumetric changes not only when changing the liquid into solid (volume increases) but also reduction of the volume when reaching lower temperatures (volume decreases). We discuss these issues parallel with observations of the cryosurvivability of multicellular organisms, tardigrades, and discuss their analogy for cryopreservation of large organs. PMID:26309797

  17. Dissolved gases in hydrothermal (phreatic) and geyser eruptions at Yellowstone National Park, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hurwitz, Shaul; Clor, Laura; McCleskey, R. Blaine; Nordstrom, D. Kirk; Hunt, Andrew G.; Evans, William C.

    2016-01-01

    Multiphase and multicomponent fluid flow in the shallow continental crust plays a significant role in a variety of processes over a broad range of temperatures and pressures. The presence of dissolved gases in aqueous fluids reduces the liquid stability field toward lower temperatures and enhances the explosivity potential with respect to pure water. Therefore, in areas where magma is actively degassing into a hydrothermal system, gas-rich aqueous fluids can exert a major control on geothermal energy production, can be propellants in hazardous hydrothermal (phreatic) eruptions, and can modulate the dynamics of geyser eruptions. We collected pressurized samples of thermal water that preserved dissolved gases in conjunction with precise temperature measurements with depth in research well Y-7 (maximum depth of 70.1 m; casing to 31 m) and five thermal pools (maximum depth of 11.3 m) in the Upper Geyser Basin of Yellowstone National Park, USA. Based on the dissolved gas concentrations, we demonstrate that CO2 mainly derived from magma and N2 from air-saturated meteoric water reduce the near-surface saturation temperature, consistent with some previous observations in geyser conduits. Thermodynamic calculations suggest that the dissolved CO2 and N2 modulate the dynamics of geyser eruptions and are likely triggers of hydrothermal eruptions when recharged into shallow reservoirs at high concentrations. Therefore, monitoring changes in gas emission rate and composition in areas with neutral and alkaline chlorine thermal features could provide important information on the natural resources (geysers) and hazards (eruptions) in these areas.

  18. The suitability of using dissolved gases to determine groundwater discharge to high gradient streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gleeson, Tom; Manning, Andrew H.; Popp, Andrea; Zane, Mathew; Clark, Jordan F.

    2018-01-01

    Determining groundwater discharge to streams using dissolved gases is known to be useful over a wide range of streamflow rates but the suitability of dissolved gas methods to determine discharge rates in high gradient mountain streams has not been sufficiently tested, even though headwater streams are critical as ecological habitats and water resources. The aim of this study is to test the suitability of using dissolved gases to determine groundwater discharge rates to high gradient streams by field experiments in a well-characterized, high gradient mountain stream and a literature review. At a reach scale (550 m) we combined stream and groundwater radon activity measurements with an in-stream SF6 tracer test. By means of numerical modeling we determined gas exchange velocities and derived very low groundwater discharge rates (∼15% of streamflow). These groundwater discharge rates are below the uncertainty range of physical streamflow measurements and consistent with temperature, specific conductance and streamflow measured at multiple locations along the reach. At a watershed-scale (4 km), we measured CFC-12 and δ18O concentrations and determined gas exchange velocities and groundwater discharge rates with the same numerical model. The groundwater discharge rates along the 4 km stream reach were highly variable, but were consistent with the values derived in the detailed study reach. Additionally, we synthesized literature values of gas exchange velocities for different stream gradients which show an empirical relationship that will be valuable in planning future dissolved gas studies on streams with various gradients. In sum, we show that multiple dissolved gas tracers can be used to determine groundwater discharge to high gradient mountain streams from reach to watershed scales.

  19. The suitability of using dissolved gases to determine groundwater discharge to high gradient streams

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleeson, Tom; Manning, Andrew H.; Popp, Andrea; Zane, Matthew; Clark, Jordan F.

    2018-02-01

    Determining groundwater discharge to streams using dissolved gases is known to be useful over a wide range of streamflow rates but the suitability of dissolved gas methods to determine discharge rates in high gradient mountain streams has not been sufficiently tested, even though headwater streams are critical as ecological habitats and water resources. The aim of this study is to test the suitability of using dissolved gases to determine groundwater discharge rates to high gradient streams by field experiments in a well-characterized, high gradient mountain stream and a literature review. At a reach scale (550 m) we combined stream and groundwater radon activity measurements with an in-stream SF6 tracer test. By means of numerical modeling we determined gas exchange velocities and derived very low groundwater discharge rates (∼15% of streamflow). These groundwater discharge rates are below the uncertainty range of physical streamflow measurements and consistent with temperature, specific conductance and streamflow measured at multiple locations along the reach. At a watershed-scale (4 km), we measured CFC-12 and δ18O concentrations and determined gas exchange velocities and groundwater discharge rates with the same numerical model. The groundwater discharge rates along the 4 km stream reach were highly variable, but were consistent with the values derived in the detailed study reach. Additionally, we synthesized literature values of gas exchange velocities for different stream gradients which show an empirical relationship that will be valuable in planning future dissolved gas studies on streams with various gradients. In sum, we show that multiple dissolved gas tracers can be used to determine groundwater discharge to high gradient mountain streams from reach to watershed scales.

  20. Validation of reactive gases and aerosols in the MACC global analysis and forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eskes, H.; Huijnen, V.; Arola, A.; Benedictow, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Botek, E.; Boucher, O.; Bouarar, I.; Chabrillat, S.; Cuevas, E.; Engelen, R.; Flentje, H.; Gaudel, A.; Griesfeller, J.; Jones, L.; Kapsomenakis, J.; Katragkou, E.; Kinne, S.; Langerock, B.; Razinger, M.; Richter, A.; Schultz, M.; Schulz, M.; Sudarchikova, N.; Thouret, V.; Vrekoussis, M.; Wagner, A.; Zerefos, C.

    2015-02-01

    The European MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project is preparing the operational Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), one of the services of the European Copernicus Programme on Earth observation and environmental services. MACC uses data assimilation to combine in-situ and remote sensing observations with global and regional models of atmospheric reactive gases, aerosols and greenhouse gases, and is based on the Integrated Forecast System of the ECMWF. The global component of the MACC service has a dedicated validation activity to document the quality of the atmospheric composition products. In this paper we discuss the approach to validation that has been developed over the past three years. Topics discussed are the validation requirements, the operational aspects, the measurement data sets used, the structure of the validation reports, the models and assimilation systems validated, the procedure to introduce new upgrades, and the scoring methods. One specific target of the MACC system concerns forecasting special events with high pollution concentrations. Such events receive extra attention in the validation process. Finally, a summary is provided of the results from the validation of the latest set of daily global analysis and forecast products from the MACC system reported in November 2014.

  1. A simple device for the collection of water and dissolved gases at defined depths

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    A device, consisting of a jar fitted with an inlet comprised of a gas-tight check valve and 2-way ball valve outlet connected via tubing to a portable peristaltic pump, was constructed to collect water samples without atmospheric contamination or loss of dissolved gases. A headspace void for dissol...

  2. Forecasting of dissolved oxygen in the Guanting reservoir using an optimized NGBM (1,1) model.

    PubMed

    An, Yan; Zou, Zhihong; Zhao, Yanfei

    2015-03-01

    An optimized nonlinear grey Bernoulli model was proposed by using a particle swarm optimization algorithm to solve the parameter optimization problem. In addition, each item in the first-order accumulated generating sequence was set in turn as an initial condition to determine which alternative would yield the highest forecasting accuracy. To test the forecasting performance, the optimized models with different initial conditions were then used to simulate dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Guanting reservoir inlet and outlet (China). The empirical results show that the optimized model can remarkably improve forecasting accuracy, and the particle swarm optimization technique is a good tool to solve parameter optimization problems. What's more, the optimized model with an initial condition that performs well in in-sample simulation may not do as well as in out-of-sample forecasting. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Gasometer: An inexpensive device for continuous monitoring of dissolved gases and supersaturation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bouck, G.R.

    1982-01-01

    The “gasometer” is a device that measures differential dissolved-gas pressures (δP) in water relative to barometric pressure (as does the “Weiss saturometer”), but operates continuously without human attention. The gasometer can be plumbed into a water-supply system and requires 8 liters/minute of water or more at 60 kilopascals. The gasometer's surfaces are nontoxic, and flow-through water can be used for fish culture. The gasometer may be connected to a small submersible pump and operated as a portable unit. The gasometer can activate an alarm system and thus protect fish from hyperbaric (supersaturation) or hypobaric gas pressures (usually due to low dissolved oxygen). Instructions are included for calculating and reporting data including the pressure and saturation of individual gases. Construction and performance standards are given for the gasometer. Occasional cleaning is required to remove biofouling from the gas-permeable tubing.PDF

  4. Epstein-Plesset theory based measurements of concentration of nitrogen gases dissolved in aerated water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sasaki, Masashi; Yamashita, Tatsuya; Ando, Keita

    2016-11-01

    Microbubble aeration is used to dissolved gases into water and is an important technique in agriculture and industry. We can measure concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO) in aerated water by commercial DO meters. However, there do not exist commercially available techniques to measure concentration to dissolved nitrogen (DN). In the present study, we propose the method to measure DN in aerated water with the aid of Epstein-Plesset-type analysis. Gas-supersaturated tap water is produced by applying aeration with micro-sized air bubbles and is then stored in a glass container open to the atmosphere. Diffusion-driven growth of bubbles nucleated at the container surface is recorded with a video camera. The bubble growth rate is compare to the extended Epstein-Plesset theory that models mass transfer of both DO and DN into the surface-attached bubbles base on the diffusion equation. Given the DO measurements, we can obtain the DN level by fitting in the comparison.

  5. Field continuous measurement of dissolved gases with a CF-MIMS: Applications to the physics and biogeochemistry of groundwater flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chatton, Eliot; Labasque, Thierry; de La Bernardie, Jérôme; Guihéneuf, Nicolas; Bour, Olivier; Aquilina, Luc

    2017-04-01

    In the perspective of a temporal and spatial exploration of aquatic environments (surface and ground water), we developed a technique for precise field continuous measurements of dissolved gases (N2, O2, CO2, CH4, N2O, H2, He, Ne, Ar, Kr, Xe). With a large resolution (from 1×10-9 to 1×10-2 ccSTP/g) and a capability of high frequency analysis (1 measure every 2 seconds), the CF-MIMS (Continuous Flow Membrane Inlet Mass Spectrometer) is an innovative tool allowing the investigation of a large panel of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in aquatic systems. Based on the available MIMS technology, this study introduces the development of the CF-MIMS (conception for field experiments, membrane choices, ionisation) and an original calibration procedure allowing the quantification of mass spectral overlaps and temperature effects on membrane permeability. This study also presents two field applications of the CF-MIMS (Chatton et al, 2016) involving the well-logging of dissolved gases and the implementation of groundwater tracer tests with dissolved 4He. The results demonstrate the analytical capabilities of the CF-MIMS in the field. Therefore, the CF-MIMS is a valuable tool for the field characterisation of biogeochemical reactivity, aquifer transport properties, groundwater recharge, groundwater residence time and aquifer-river exchanges from few hours to several weeks experiments. Eliot Chatton, Thierry Labasque, Jérôme de La Bernardie, Nicolas Guihéneuf, Olivier Bour and Luc Aquilina; Field Continuous Measurement of Dissolved Gases with a CF-MIMS: Applications to the Physics and Biogeochemistry of Groundwater Flow; Environmental Science & Technology, in press, 2016.

  6. Effect of dissolved gases in water on acoustic cavitation and bubble growth rate in 0.83 MHz megasonic of interest to wafer cleaning.

    PubMed

    Kang, Bong-Kyun; Kim, Min-Su; Park, Jin-Goo

    2014-07-01

    Changes in the cavitation intensity of gases dissolved in water, including H2, N2, and Ar, have been established in studies of acoustic bubble growth rates under ultrasonic fields. Variations in the acoustic properties of dissolved gases in water affect the cavitation intensity at a high frequency (0.83 MHz) due to changes in the rectified diffusion and bubble coalescence rate. It has been proposed that acoustic bubble growth rates rapidly increase when water contains a gas, such as hydrogen faster single bubble growth due to rectified diffusion, and a higher rate of coalescence under Bjerknes forces. The change of acoustic bubble growth rate in rectified diffusion has an effect on the damping constant and diffusivity of gas at the acoustic bubble and liquid interface. It has been suggested that the coalescence reaction of bubbles under Bjerknes forces is a reaction determined by the compressibility and density of dissolved gas in water associated with sound velocity and density in acoustic bubbles. High acoustic bubble growth rates also contribute to enhanced cavitation effects in terms of dissolved gas in water. On the other hand, when Ar gas dissolves into water under ultrasound field, cavitation behavior was reduced remarkably due to its lower acoustic bubble growth rate. It is shown that change of cavitation intensity in various dissolved gases were verified through cleaning experiments in the single type of cleaning tool such as particle removal and pattern damage based on numerically calculated acoustic bubble growth rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Field Continuous Measurement of Dissolved Gases with a CF-MIMS: Applications to the Physics and Biogeochemistry of Groundwater Flow.

    PubMed

    Chatton, Eliot; Labasque, Thierry; de La Bernardie, Jérôme; Guihéneuf, Nicolas; Bour, Olivier; Aquilina, Luc

    2017-01-17

    In the perspective of a temporal and spatial exploration of aquatic environments (surface and groundwater), we developed a technique for field continuous measurements of dissolved gases with a precision better than 1% for N 2 , O 2 , CO 2 , He, Ar, 2% for Kr, 8% for Xe, and 3% for CH 4 , N 2 O and Ne. With a large resolution (from 1 × 10 -9 to 1 × 10 -2 ccSTP/g) and a capability of high frequency analysis (1 measure every 2 s), the CF-MIMS (Continuous Flow Membrane Inlet Mass Spectrometer) is an innovative tool allowing the investigation of a large panel of hydrological and biogeochemical processes in aquatic systems. Based on the available MIMS technology, this study introduces the development of the CF-MIMS (conception for field experiments, membrane choices, ionization) and an original calibration procedure allowing the quantification of mass spectral overlaps and temperature effects on membrane permeability. This study also presents two field applications of the CF-MIMS involving the well-logging of dissolved gases and the implementation of groundwater tracer tests with dissolved 4 He. The results demonstrate the analytical capabilities of the CF-MIMS in the field. Therefore, the CF-MIMS is a valuable tool for the field characterization of biogeochemical reactivity, aquifer transport properties, groundwater recharge, groundwater residence time and aquifer-river exchanges from few hours to several weeks experiments.

  8. Towards uncertainty estimates in global operational forecasts of trace gases in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huijnen, V.; Bouarar, I.; Chabrillat, S. H.; Christophe, Y.; Thierno, D.; Karydis, V.; Marecal, V.; Pozzer, A.; Flemming, J.

    2017-12-01

    Operational atmospheric composition analyses and forecasts such as developed in the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) rely on modules describing emissions, chemical conversion, transport and removal processing, as well as data assimilation methods. The CAMS forecasts can be used to drive regional air quality models across the world. Critical analyses of uncertainties in any of these processes are continuously needed to advance the quality of such systems on a global scale, ranging from the surface up to the stratosphere. With regard to the atmospheric chemistry to describe the fate of trace gases, the operational system currently relies on a modified version of the CB05 chemistry scheme for the troposphere combined with the Cariolle scheme to describe stratospheric ozone, as integrated in ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). It is further constrained by assimilation of satellite observations of CO, O3 and NO2. As part of CAMS we have recently developed three fully independent schemes to describe the chemical conversion throughout the atmosphere. These parameterizations originate from parent model codes in MOZART, MOCAGE and a combination of TM5/BASCOE. In this contribution we evaluate the correspondence and elemental differences in the performance of the three schemes in an otherwise identical model configuration (excluding data-assimilation) against a large range of in-situ and satellite-based observations of ozone, CO, VOC's and chlorine-containing trace gases for both troposphere and stratosphere. This analysis aims to provide a measure of model uncertainty in the operational system for tracers that are not, or poorly, constrained by data assimilation. It aims also to provide guidance on the directions for further model improvement with regard to the chemical conversion module.

  9. Laser Calorimetry Spectroscopy for ppm-level Dissolved Gas Detection and Analysis

    PubMed Central

    K. S., Nagapriya; Sinha, Shashank; R., Prashanth; Poonacha, Samhitha; Chaudhry, Gunaranjan; Bhattacharya, Anandaroop; Choudhury, Niloy; Mahalik, Saroj; Maity, Sandip

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we report a newly developed technique – laser calorimetry spectroscopy (LCS), which is a combination of laser absorption spectroscopy and calorimetry - for the detection of gases dissolved in liquids. The technique involves determination of concentration of a dissolved gas by irradiating the liquid with light of a wavelength where the gas absorbs, and measuring the temperature change caused by the absorbance. Conventionally, detection of dissolved gases with sufficient sensitivity and specificity was done by first extracting the gases from the liquid and then analyzing the gases using techniques such as gas chromatography. Using LCS, we have been able to detect ppm levels of dissolved gases without extracting them from the liquid. In this paper, we show the detection of dissolved acetylene in transformer oil in the mid infrared (MIR) wavelength (3021 nm) region. PMID:28218304

  10. Laser Calorimetry Spectroscopy for ppm-level Dissolved Gas Detection and Analysis.

    PubMed

    K S, Nagapriya; Sinha, Shashank; R, Prashanth; Poonacha, Samhitha; Chaudhry, Gunaranjan; Bhattacharya, Anandaroop; Choudhury, Niloy; Mahalik, Saroj; Maity, Sandip

    2017-02-20

    In this paper we report a newly developed technique - laser calorimetry spectroscopy (LCS), which is a combination of laser absorption spectroscopy and calorimetry - for the detection of gases dissolved in liquids. The technique involves determination of concentration of a dissolved gas by irradiating the liquid with light of a wavelength where the gas absorbs, and measuring the temperature change caused by the absorbance. Conventionally, detection of dissolved gases with sufficient sensitivity and specificity was done by first extracting the gases from the liquid and then analyzing the gases using techniques such as gas chromatography. Using LCS, we have been able to detect ppm levels of dissolved gases without extracting them from the liquid. In this paper, we show the detection of dissolved acetylene in transformer oil in the mid infrared (MIR) wavelength (3021 nm) region.

  11. On the Role of Dissolved Gases in the Atmosphere Retention of Low-mass Low-density Planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chachan, Yayaati; Stevenson, David J.

    2018-02-01

    Low-mass low-density planets discovered by Kepler in the super-Earth mass regime typically have large radii for their inferred masses, implying the presence of H2–He atmospheres. These planets are vulnerable to atmospheric mass loss due to heating by the parent star’s XUV flux. Models coupling atmospheric mass loss with thermal evolution predicted a bimodal distribution of planetary radii, which has gained observational support. However, a key component that has been ignored in previous studies is the dissolution of these gases into the molten core of rock and iron that constitute most of their mass. Such planets have high temperatures (>2000 K) and pressures (∼kbars) at the core-envelope boundary, ensuring a molten surface and a subsurface reservoir of hydrogen that can be 5–10 times larger than the atmosphere. This study bridges this gap by coupling the thermal evolution of the planet and the mass loss of the atmosphere with the thermodynamic equilibrium between the dissolved H2 and the atmospheric H2 (Henry’s law). Dissolution in the interior allows a planet to build a larger hydrogen repository during the planet formation stage. We show that the dissolved hydrogen outgasses to buffer atmospheric mass loss. The slow cooling of the planet also leads to outgassing because solubility decreases with decreasing temperature. Dissolution of hydrogen in the interior therefore increases the atmosphere retention ability of super-Earths. The study highlights the importance of including the temperature- and pressure-dependent solubility of gases in magma oceans and coupling outgassing to planetary evolution models.

  12. Characterizing Dissolved Gases in Cryogenic Liquid Fuels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richardson, Ian A.

    Pressure-Density-Temperature-Composition (PrhoT-x) measurements of cryogenic fuel mixtures are a historical challenge due to the difficulties of maintaining cryogenic temperatures and precision isolation of a mixture sample. For decades NASA has used helium to pressurize liquid hydrogen propellant tanks to maintain tank pressure and reduce boil off. This process causes helium gas to dissolve into liquid hydrogen creating a cryogenic mixture with thermodynamic properties that vary from pure liquid hydrogen. This can lead to inefficiencies in fuel storage and instabilities in fluid flow. As NASA plans for longer missions to Mars and beyond, small inefficiencies such as dissolved helium in liquid propellant become significant. Traditional NASA models are unable to account for dissolved helium due to a lack of fundamental property measurements necessary for the development of a mixture Equation Of State (EOS). The first PrhoT-x measurements of helium-hydrogen mixtures using a retrofitted single-sinker densimeter, magnetic suspension microbalance, and calibrated gas chromatograph are presented in this research. These measurements were used to develop the first multi-phase EOS for helium-hydrogen mixtures which was implemented into NASA's Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) to determine the significance of mixture non-idealities. It was revealed that having dissolved helium in the propellant does not have a significant effect on the tank pressurization rate but does affect the rate at which the propellant temperature rises. PrhoT-x measurements are conducted on methane-ethane mixtures with dissolved nitrogen gas to simulate the conditions of the hydrocarbon seas of Saturn's moon Titan. Titan is the only known celestial body in the solar system besides Earth with stable liquid seas accessible on the surface. The PrhoT-x measurements are used to develop solubility models to aid in the design of the Titan Submarine. NASA is currently designing the submarine

  13. Dissolved gas concentrations of the geothermal fluids in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ai-Ti; Yang, Tsanyao Frank

    2010-05-01

    Taiwan, a geologically active island, is located on the boundary of the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate. High heat flow and geothermal gradient generated by the complex collision and orogeny, warm up the meteoric water and/or the ground water. The heated water becomes geothermal fluids. In previous studies, researchers tried to categorize hot springs based on the appearance, chemical compositions and lithological areas. Because of the chemical inertness, the concentrations and isotopic composition of dissolved noble gases are good indicators of the mantle degassing, geothermal conditions, and so on. In this study, 55 hot springs were collected from different tectonic units. It is the first time to systematically study the hot springs in Taiwan in terms of dissolved gases. Hot spring water is sampled and stored in pre-evacuated glass bottles for analyzing gas compositions. The abundances of noble gases were determined by a quadrupole mass spectrometer based on the isotope dilution technique. Samples with glass vials are introduced to RAD 7 and GC for dissolved Rn and major dissolved gases analyses. Furthermore, helium isotopic ratios and helium-neon ratios are measured on a conventional noble gas mass spectrometer. For hydrochemistry analysis, water samples are analyzed by IC, ICP-MS and titration. We can classify the hot springs samples into three major groups from main anion concentration data; and then, subdivide them into nine minor groups by cation concentration data. Moreover, according to major dissolved gases compositions, three major gas components: CH4, N2 and CO2, are identified. Dissolved noble gases provided more detailed clues about hot springs sources in Taiwan, such as the degree of mixing between meteoric water and deep-source water, which will be further discussed in this study.

  14. Dynamics of submarine groundwater discharge and associated fluxes of dissolved nutrients, carbon, and trace gases to the coastal zone (Okatee River estuary, South Carolina)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porubsky, W.P.; Weston, N.B.; Moore, W.S.; Ruppel, C.; Joye, S.B.

    2014-01-01

    Multiple techniques, including thermal infrared aerial remote sensing, geophysical and geological data, geochemical characterization and radium isotopes, were used to evaluate the role of groundwater as a source of dissolved nutrients, carbon, and trace gases to the Okatee River estuary, South Carolina. Thermal infrared aerial remote sensing surveys illustrated the presence of multiple submarine groundwater discharge sites in Okatee headwaters. Significant relationships were observed between groundwater geochemical constituents and 226Ra activity in groundwater with higher 226Ra activity correlated to higher concentrations of organics, dissolved inorganic carbon, nutrients, and trace gases to the Okatee system. A system-level radium mass balance confirmed a substantial submarine groundwater discharge contribution of these constituents to the Okatee River. Diffusive benthic flux measurements and potential denitrification rate assays tracked the fate of constituents in creek bank sediments. Diffusive benthic fluxes were substantially lower than calculated radium-based submarine groundwater discharge inputs, showing that advection of groundwater-derived nutrients dominated fluxes in the system. While a considerable potential for denitrification in tidal creek bank sediments was noted, in situ denitrification rates were nitrate-limited, making intertidal sediments an inefficient nitrogen sink in this system. Groundwater geochemical data indicated significant differences in groundwater chemical composition and radium activity ratios between the eastern and western sides of the river; these likely arose from the distinct hydrological regimes observed in each area. Groundwater from the western side of the Okatee headwaters was characterized by higher concentrations of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon, dissolved organic nitrogen, inorganic nutrients and reduced metabolites and trace gases, i.e. methane and nitrous oxide, than groundwater from the eastern side

  15. Forecasting models for flow and total dissolved solids in Karoun river-Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salmani, Mohammad Hassan; Salmani Jajaei, Efat

    2016-04-01

    Water quality is one of the most important factors contributing to a healthy life. From the water quality management point of view, TDS (total dissolved solids) is the most important factor and many water developing plans have been implemented in recognition of this factor. However, these plans have not been perfect and very successful in overcoming the poor water quality problem, so there are a good volume of related studies in the literature. We study TDS and the water flow of the Karoun river in southwest Iran. We collected the necessary time series data from the Harmaleh station located in the river. We present two Univariate Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Movement Average (ARIMA) models to forecast TDS and water flow in this river. Then, we build up a Transfer Function (TF) model to formulate the TDS as a function of water flow volume. A performance comparison between the Seasonal ARIMA and the TF models are presented.

  16. The detection of dissolved gases in transformer oil by gas chromatography with helium ionization detector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Xian-qin; Fang, Hua; Li, Min-xian

    2017-07-01

    The GC-PDD with the technology of valve cutting and helium ionization detector was used to analyze the dissolved gases in ultra-high voltage(UHV) and extra-high voltage(EHV) transformer oil. The detection limit(DL) reached ppb grade, especially for the featuring gas—C2H2 and H2, whose DL could reach 5ppb and 11ppb respectively. The test reproducibility of the instrument was about 1% and the correlation coefficient of standard curve-r is greater or equal to 0.99, which showed obvious advantage compared with normal GC. In addition, the auxiliary gas of H2 was not used in this instrument, which completely improved the safety performance. Thus, the application of GC-PDD has significant meaning in warning potential malfunction inside the ultra-high voltage transformer in advance.

  17. Simultaneous determination of dissolved gases and moisture in mineral insulating oils by static headspace gas chromatography with helium photoionization pulsed discharge detection.

    PubMed

    Jalbert, J; Gilbert, R; Tétreault, P

    2001-07-15

    This paper presents the development of a static headspace capillary gas chromatographic method (HS-GC) for simultaneously determining dissolved gases (H2, O2, N2, CO, CO2, CH4, C2H6, C2H4, C2H2, C3H8) and moisture from a unique 15-mL mineral oil sample. A headspace sampler device is used to equilibrate the sample species in a two-phase system under controlled temperature and agitation conditions. A portion of the equilibrated species is then automatically split-injected into two chromatographic channels mounted on the same GC for their separation. The hydrocarbons and the lighter gases are separated on the first channel by a GS-Q column coupled with a MolSieve 5-A column via a bypass valve, while the moisture is separated on the second channel using a Stabilwax column. The analytes are detected by using two universal pulsed-discharge helium ionization detectors (PDHID). The performance of the method was established using equilibrated vials containing known amounts of gas mixture, water, and blank oil. The signal is linear over the concentration ranges normally found for samples collected from open-breathing power transformers. Determination sensitivity varies with the nature of the species considered with values as high as 21 500 A x 10(-9) s (microg/ g)(-1) for H2O, 46-216 A x 10(-9) s (microL/L)(-1) for the hydrocarbons and carbon oxides, and as low as 8-21 A x 10(-9) s (microL/L)(-1) for the O2 and N2 permanent gases. The detection limit of the method is between 0.08 and 6 microL/L for the dissolved gases, except for O2, N2, and CO2, where higher values are observed due to air intrusion during sampler operations, and 0.1 microg/g for the dissolved water. Ten consecutive measurements in the low and high levels of the calibration curves have shown a precision better than 12% and 6%, respectively, in all cases. A comparison study between the HS-GC method and the ASTM standard procedures on 31 field samples showed a very good agreement of the results. The advantages

  18. Recharge processes and vertical transfer investigated through long-term monitoring of dissolved gases in shallow groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Montety, V.; Aquilina, L.; Labasque, T.; Chatton, E.; Fovet, O.; Ruiz, L.; Fourré, E.; de Dreuzy, J. R.

    2018-05-01

    We investigated temporal variations and vertical evolution of dissolved gaseous tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6, and noble gases), as well as 3H/3He ratio to determine groundwater recharge processes of a shallow unconfined, hard-rock aquifer in an agricultural catchment. We sampled dissolved gas concentration at 4 locations along the hillslope of a small experimental watershed, over 6 hydrological years, between 2 and 6 times per years, for a total of 20 field campaigns. We collected groundwater samples in the fluctuation zone and the permanently saturated zone using piezometers from 5 to 20 m deep. The purpose of this work is i) to assess the benefits of using gaseous tracers like CFCs and SF6 to study very young groundwater with flows suspected to be heterogeneous and variable in time, ii) to characterize the processes that control dissolved gas concentrations in groundwater during the recharge of the aquifer, and iii) to understand the evolution of recharge flow processes by repeated measurement campaigns, taking advantage of a long monitoring in a site devoted to recharge processes investigation. Gas tracer profiles are compared at different location of the catchment and for different hydrologic conditions. In addition, we compare results from CFCs and 3H/3He analysis to define the flow model that best explains tracer concentrations. Then we discuss the influence of recharge events on tracer concentrations and residence time and propose a temporal evolution of residence times for the unsaturated zone and the permanently saturated zone. These results are used to gain a better understanding of the conceptual model of the catchment and flow processes especially during recharge events.

  19. High resolution spatial and temporal evolution of dissolved gases in groundwater during a controlled natural gas release experiment.

    PubMed

    Cahill, Aaron G; Parker, Beth L; Mayer, Bernhard; Mayer, K Ulrich; Cherry, John A

    2018-05-01

    Fugitive gas comprised primarily of methane (CH 4 ) with traces of ethane and propane (collectively termed C 1-3 ) may negatively impact shallow groundwater when unintentionally released from oil and natural gas wells. Currently, knowledge of fugitive gas migration, subsurface source identification and oxidation potential in groundwater is limited. To advance understanding, a controlled release experiment was performed at the Borden Research Aquifer, Canada, whereby 51m 3 of natural gas was injected into an unconfined sand aquifer over 72days with dissolved gases monitored over 323days. During active gas injection, a dispersed plume of dissolved C 1-3 evolved in a depth discrete and spatially complex manner. Evolution of the dissolved gas plume was driven by free-phase gas migration controlled by small-scale sediment layering and anisotropy. Upon cessation of gas injection, C 1-3 concentrations increased to the greatest levels observed, particularly at 2 and 6m depths, reaching up to 31.5, 1.5 and 0.1mg/L respectively before stabilizing and persisting. At no time did groundwater become fully saturated with natural gas at the scale of sampling undertaken. Throughout the experiment the isotopic composition of injected methane (δ 13 C of -42.2‰) and the wetness parameter (i.e. the ratio of C 1 to C 2+ ) constituted excellent tracers for the presence of fugitive gas at concentrations >2mg/L. At discrete times C 1-3 concentrations varied by up to 4 orders of magnitude over 8m of aquifer thickness (e.g. from <0.01 to 30mg/L for CH 4 ), while some groundwater samples lacked evidence of fugitive gas, despite being within 10m of the injection zone. Meanwhile, carbon isotope ratios of dissolved CH 4 showed no evidence of oxidation. Our results show that while impacts to aquifers from a fugitive gas event are readily detectable at discrete depths, they are spatially and temporally variable and dissolved methane has propensity to persist. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All

  20. Solubility of non-polar gases in electrolyte solutions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, R. L., Jr.

    1970-01-01

    Solubility theory describes the effects of both concentration and temperature on solute activity coefficients. It predicts the salting-out effect and the decrease in solubility of non-polar gases with increased electrolyte concentration, and can be used to calculate heats of solution, entropies, and partial molal volumes of dissolved gases

  1. Colorimetric Detection Of Substances In Liquids And Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, J. Milton; Mcgill, R. Andrew; Paley, Mark S.

    1992-01-01

    Thin polymer films containing solvatochromic dyes used as sensing elements to detect substances dissolved in liquids and gases. Dyes do not react with liquids in which dissolved, but do respond to changes in chemical compositions by changing color. Concentration determined visually by comparison of color with predetermined standard chart, or spectrophotometrically.

  2. Dissolved gas geochemical signatures of the ground waters related to the 2011 El Hierro magmatic reactivation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez, F.; Hernández, P. A.; Padrón, E.; Pérez, N. M.; Sumino, H.; Melián, G. V.; Padilla, G. D.; Barrancos, J.; Dionis, S.; Nolasco, D.; Calvo, D.; Hernández, I.; Peraza, M. D.

    2012-04-01

    significant changes in relation to the release of seismic energy. The results observed on this dissolved gases study have been tremendously beneficial on the volcanic surveillance tools to study and forecast the evolution of the seismic-volcanic crisis.

  3. Use of dissolved and vapor‐phase gases to investigate methanogenic degradation of petroleum hydrocarbon contamination in the subsurface

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amos, Richard T.; Mayer, K. Ulrich; Bekins, Barbara A.; Delin, Geoffrey N.; Williams, Randi L.

    2005-01-01

    At many sites contaminated with petroleum hydrocarbons, methanogenesis is a significant degradation pathway. Techniques to estimate CH4 production, consumption, and transport processes are needed to understand the geochemical system, provide a complete carbon mass balance, and quantify the hydrocarbon degradation rate. Dissolved and vapor‐phase gas data collected at a petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated site near Bemidji, Minnesota, demonstrate that naturally occurring nonreactive or relatively inert gases such as Ar and N2 can be effectively used to better understand and quantify physical and chemical processes related to methanogenic activity in the subsurface. In the vadose zone, regions of Ar and N2 depletion and enrichment are indicative of methanogenic and methanotrophic zones, and concentration gradients between the regions suggest that reaction‐induced advection can be an important gas transport process. In the saturated zone, dissolved Ar and N2 concentrations are used to quantify degassing driven by methanogenesis and also suggest that attenuation of methane along the flow path, into the downgradient aquifer, is largely controlled by physical processes. Slight but discernable preferential depletion of N2 over Ar, in both the saturated and unsaturated zones near the free‐phase oil, suggests reactivity of N2 and is consistent with other evidence indicating that nitrogen fixation by microbial activity is taking place at this site.

  4. Quantitation of dissolved gas content in emulsions and in blood using mass spectrometric detection

    PubMed Central

    Grimley, Everett; Turner, Nicole; Newell, Clayton; Simpkins, Cuthbert; Rodriguez, Juan

    2011-01-01

    Quantitation of dissolved gases in blood or in other biological media is essential for understanding the dynamics of metabolic processes. Current detection techniques, while enabling rapid and convenient assessment of dissolved gases, provide only direct information on the partial pressure of gases dissolved in the aqueous fraction of the fluid. The more relevant quantity known as gas content, which refers to the total amount of the gas in all fractions of the sample, can be inferred from those partial pressures, but only indirectly through mathematical modeling. Here we describe a simple mass spectrometric technique for rapid and direct quantitation of gas content for a wide range of gases. The technique is based on a mass spectrometer detector that continuously monitors gases that are rapidly extracted from samples injected into a purge vessel. The accuracy and sample processing speed of the system is demonstrated with experiments that reproduce within minutes literature values for the solubility of various gases in water. The capability of the technique is further demonstrated through accurate determination of O2 content in a lipid emulsion and in whole blood, using as little as 20 μL of sample. The approach to gas content quantitation described here should greatly expand the range of animals and conditions that may be used in studies of metabolic gas exchange, and facilitate the development of artificial oxygen carriers and resuscitation fluids. PMID:21497566

  5. Comparison of depth-specific groundwater sampling methods and their influence on hydrochemistry, isotopy and dissolved gases - Experiences from the Fuhrberger Feld, Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houben, Georg J.; Koeniger, Paul; Schloemer, Stefan; Gröger-Trampe, Jens; Sültenfuß, Jürgen

    2018-02-01

    Depth-specific sampling of groundwater is important for a variety of hydrogeological applications. Several sampling methods are available but comparably little is known about how their results compare. Therefore, samples from regular observation wells (short screen), micro-filters and direct push were compared for two sites with differing hydrogeological conditions and land use, both located in the Fuhrberger Feld, Germany. The encountered hydrochemical zonation requires a high resolution of 1 m or better, which the available small number of regular observation wells could only roughly mirror. Because the three methods employ significantly varying pumping rates and therefore, have varying spatial origins of the sample, individual concentrations at similar depths may differ significantly. In a hydrologically and chemically dynamical environment such as the agricultural site, this effect becomes more pronounced than for the more stable forest site. The micro-filters are probably the most depth-specific, but showed distinctly lower concentrations for dissolved gases than the other two methods, due to degassing during sampling. They should thus not be used for any method that relies on dissolved gas analysis.

  6. Effect of dissolved carbon dioxide on penicillin fermentations: mycelial growth and penicillin production. [Penicillium chrysogenum

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ho, C.S.; Smith, M.D.

    The effect of dissolved carbon dioxide on the specific growth rate and the penicillin production rate of Penicillium chrysogenum was examined experimentally. The dissolved carbon dioxide was found to inhibit the specific growth rate and the penicillin production rate when the aerated submerged penicillin fermentation was exposed to influent gases of 12.6 and 20% carbon dioxide, respectively. Upon exposure to influent gases of 3 and 5% carbon dioxide, no pronounced metabolic inhibition was noted.

  7. Quantitation of dissolved gas content in emulsions and in blood using mass spectrometric detection.

    PubMed

    Grimley, Everett; Turner, Nicole; Newell, Clayton; Simpkins, Cuthbert; Rodriguez, Juan

    2011-06-01

    Quantitation of dissolved gases in blood or in other biological media is essential for understanding the dynamics of metabolic processes. Current detection techniques, while enabling rapid and convenient assessment of dissolved gases, provide only direct information on the partial pressure of gases dissolved in the aqueous fraction of the fluid. The more relevant quantity known as gas content, which refers to the total amount of the gas in all fractions of the sample, can be inferred from those partial pressures, but only indirectly through mathematical modeling. Here we describe a simple mass spectrometric technique for rapid and direct quantitation of gas content for a wide range of gases. The technique is based on a mass spectrometer detector that continuously monitors gases that are rapidly extracted from samples injected into a purge vessel. The accuracy and sample processing speed of the system is demonstrated with experiments that reproduce within minutes literature values for the solubility of various gases in water. The capability of the technique is further demonstrated through accurate determination of O(2) content in a lipid emulsion and in whole blood, using as little as 20 μL of sample. The approach to gas content quantitation described here should greatly expand the range of animals and conditions that may be used in studies of metabolic gas exchange, and facilitate the development of artificial oxygen carriers and resuscitation fluids. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Solubilities of nitrogen and noble gases in basalt melt

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miyazaki, A.; Hiyagon, H.; Sugiura, N.

    1994-01-01

    Nitrogen and noble gases are important tracers in geochemistry and chosmochemistry. Compared to noble gases, however, physicochemical properties of nitrogen, such as solubility in melt or melt/silicate partition, are not well known. Solubility of nitrogen in basalt melt depends on redox condition of the atmosphere. For example, solubility of nitrogen in E chondrite melt under reducing conditions is as high as 2 mol percent at 1500 C, suggesting that nitrogen is chemically dissolved in silicate melts, i.e., being dissolved as free anions or replacing oxygen sites in silicate network. However, the solubility and the dissolution mechanism of nitrogen under oxidizing conditions are not well investigated. To obtain nitrogen solubility in silicate melts under various redox conditions and to understand its mechanism, we are conducting experiments by using (15)N(15)N-labeled nitrogen gas. This makes it easy to distinguish dissolved nitrogen from later contamination of atmospheric nitrogen, and hence enables us to measure the nitrogen solubility accurately. As a preliminary experiment, we have measured solubility of nitrogen in basalt melt under the atmospheric oxygen pressure.

  9. Evaluation of headspace equilibration methods for quantifying greenhouse gases in groundwater.

    PubMed

    Jahangir, M M R; Johnston, P; Khalil, M I; Grant, J; Somers, C; Richards, K G

    2012-11-30

    The objective of the study was to evaluate the different headspace equilibration methods for the quantification of dissolved greenhouse gases in groundwater. Groundwater samples were collected from wells with contrasting hydrogeochemical properties and degassed using the headspace equilibration method. One hundred samples from each well were randomly selected, treatments were applied and headspace gases analysed by gas chromatography. Headspace equilibration treatments varied helium (He):water ratio, shaking time and standing time. Mean groundwater N(2)O, CO(2) and CH(4) concentrations were 0.024 mg N L(-1), 13.71 mg C L(-1) and 1.63 μg C L(-1), respectively. All treatments were found to significantly influence dissolved gas concentrations. Considerable differences in the optimal He:water ratio and standing time were observed between the three gases. For N(2)O, CO(2) and CH(4) the optimum operating points for He:water ratio was 4.4:1, 3:1 and 3.4:1; shaking time was 13, 12 and 13 min; and standing time was 63, 17 and 108 min, respectively. The headspace equilibration method needs to be harmonised to ensure comparability between studies. The experiment reveals that He:water ratio 3:1 and shaking time 13 min give better estimation of dissolved gases than any lower or higher ratios and shaking times. The standing time 63, 17 and 108 min should be applied for N(2)O, CO(2) and CH(4), respectively. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Dissolved oxygen content prediction in crab culture using a hybrid intelligent method

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Huihui; Chen, Yingyi; Hassan, ShahbazGul; Li, Daoliang

    2016-01-01

    A precise predictive model is needed to obtain a clear understanding of the changing dissolved oxygen content in outdoor crab ponds, to assess how to reduce risk and to optimize water quality management. The uncertainties in the data from multiple sensors are a significant factor when building a dissolved oxygen content prediction model. To increase prediction accuracy, a new hybrid dissolved oxygen content forecasting model based on the radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) data fusion method and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) with an optimal improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO) is developed. In the modelling process, the RBFNN data fusion method is used to improve information accuracy and provide more trustworthy training samples for the IPSO-LSSVM prediction model. The LSSVM is a powerful tool for achieving nonlinear dissolved oxygen content forecasting. In addition, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to determine the optimal parameters for the LSSVM with high accuracy and generalizability. In this study, the comparison of the prediction results of different traditional models validates the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed hybrid RBFNN-IPSO-LSSVM model for dissolved oxygen content prediction in outdoor crab ponds. PMID:27270206

  11. Dissolved oxygen content prediction in crab culture using a hybrid intelligent method.

    PubMed

    Yu, Huihui; Chen, Yingyi; Hassan, ShahbazGul; Li, Daoliang

    2016-06-08

    A precise predictive model is needed to obtain a clear understanding of the changing dissolved oxygen content in outdoor crab ponds, to assess how to reduce risk and to optimize water quality management. The uncertainties in the data from multiple sensors are a significant factor when building a dissolved oxygen content prediction model. To increase prediction accuracy, a new hybrid dissolved oxygen content forecasting model based on the radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN) data fusion method and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) with an optimal improved particle swarm optimization(IPSO) is developed. In the modelling process, the RBFNN data fusion method is used to improve information accuracy and provide more trustworthy training samples for the IPSO-LSSVM prediction model. The LSSVM is a powerful tool for achieving nonlinear dissolved oxygen content forecasting. In addition, an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is developed to determine the optimal parameters for the LSSVM with high accuracy and generalizability. In this study, the comparison of the prediction results of different traditional models validates the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed hybrid RBFNN-IPSO-LSSVM model for dissolved oxygen content prediction in outdoor crab ponds.

  12. Evaluation of the Giggenbach bottle method using artificial fumarolic gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, S.; Jeong, H. Y.

    2013-12-01

    Volcanic eruption is one of the most dangerous natural disasters. Mt. Baekdu, located on the border between North Korea and China, has been recently showing multiple signs of its eruption. The magmatic activity of a volcano strongly affects the composition of volcanic gases, which can provide a useful tool for predicting the eruption. Among various volcanic gas monitoring methods, the Giggenbach bottle method involves the on-site sampling of volcanic gases and the subsequent laboratory analysis, thus making it possible to detect a range of volcanic gases at low levels. In this study, we aim to evaluate the effectiveness of the Giggenbach bottle method and develop the associated analytical tools using artificial fumarolic gases with known compositions. The artificial fumarolic gases are generated by mixing CO2, CO, H2S, SO2, Ar, and H2 gas streams with a N2 stream sparged through an acidic medium containing HCl and HF. The target compositions of the fumarolic gases are selected to cover those reported for various volcanoes under different tectonic environments as follows: CO2 (2-12 mol %), CO (0.3-1 mol %), H2S (0.7-2 mol %), SO2 (0.6-4 mol %), Ar (0.3-0.7 mol %), H2 (0.3-0.7 mol %), HCl (0.2-1 mol %), and HF (< 0.015 mol %). The artificial fumarolic gases are collected into an evacuated bottle partially filled with 4 M NaOH solution containing 0.5 mM Cd(CH3COO)2. While non-condensable components such as CO, Ar, H2, and N2 accumulate in the headspace of the bottle, acidic components including CO2, SO2, HCl, and HF dissolve into the alkaline solution. In case of H2S, it reacts with dissolved Cd2+ to precipitate as CdS(s). The gas accumulated in the headspace can be analyzed for CO, Ar, H2, and N2 on a gas chromatography. The alkaline solution is first separated from yellowish CdS precipitates by filtration, and then pretreated with hydrogen peroxide to oxidize dissolved SO2 (H2SO3) to SO42-. The resultant solution can be analyzed for SO2 as SO42-, HCl as Cl-, and HF

  13. Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, Christoph A.; Knowland, K. Emma; Nielsen, Jon E.; Orbe, Clara; Ott, Lesley; Pawson, Steven; Saunders, Emily; Duncan, Bryan; Follette-Cook, Melanie; Liu, Junhua; hide

    2018-01-01

    We provide an introduction to a new high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition forecast produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (25 km). Previously, this combination of detailed chemistry and resolution was only provided by regional models. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 11) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest resolution compared to current, publically-available global composition forecasts. Evaluation and validation of modeled trace gases and aerosols compared to surface and satellite observations will be presented for constituents relative to health air quality standards. Comparisons of modeled trace gases and aerosols against satellite observations show that the model produces realistic concentrations of atmospheric constituents in the free troposphere. Model comparisons against surface observations highlight the model's capability to capture the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. The GEOS-5 composition forecasting system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community, and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. Potential applications include air quality warnings, flight campaign planning and exposure studies using the archived analysis fields.

  14. Process for coal liquefaction in staged dissolvers

    DOEpatents

    Roberts, George W.; Givens, Edwin N.; Skinner, Ronald W.

    1983-01-01

    There is described an improved liquefaction process by which coal is converted to a low ash and low sulfur carbonaceous material that can be used as a fuel in an environmentally acceptable manner without costly gas scrubbing equipment. In the process, coal is slurried with a pasting oil, passed through a preheater and at least two dissolvers in series in the presence of hydrogen-rich gases at elevated temperatures and pressures. Solids, including mineral ash and unconverted coal macerals, are separated from the condensed reactor effluent. In accordance with the improved process, the first dissolver is operated at a higher temperature than the second dissolver. This temperature sequence produces improved product selectivity and permits the incorporation of sufficient hydrogen in the solvent for adequate recycle operations.

  15. Use of gases in dairy manufacturing: A review.

    PubMed

    Adhikari, Bhaskar Mani; Truong, Tuyen; Bansal, Nidhi; Bhandari, Bhesh

    2017-06-13

    Use of gases (air, carbon dioxide and nitrogen) has been practiced in the manufacture of dairy products (i.e., ice cream, whipped cream and butter) to improve their texture, mouthfeel and shelf-life extension. Many attempts have also been made to incorporate other gases such as hydrogen, nitrous oxide, argon, xenon, and helium into the dairy systems for various product functionalities such as whipping, foaming, texture, aroma enhancement, and therapeutic properties. The gases can be dissolved in aqueous and fat phases or remain in the form of bubbles stabilized by protein or fat particles. The gas addition or infusion processes are typically simple and have been used commercially. This review focuses on the use of various gases in relation to their individually physical properties along with their specific roles in manufacturing and controlling quality of dairy products. It also recaps on how gases are included in the dairy systems. The information is important in understanding of addition of specific gas(es) into food systems, particularly dairy products, that potentially provide intervention opportunities for modifying and/or creating innovative food structures and functionalities.

  16. Dissolved atmospheric gas in xylem sap measured with membrane inlet mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Schenk, H Jochen; Espino, Susana; Visser, Ate; Esser, Bradley K

    2016-04-01

    A new method is described for measuring dissolved gas concentrations in small volumes of xylem sap using membrane inlet mass spectrometry. The technique can be used to determine concentrations of atmospheric gases, such as argon, as reported here, or for any dissolved gases and their isotopes for a variety of applications, such as rapid detection of trace gases from groundwater only hours after they were taken up by trees and rooting depth estimation. Atmospheric gas content in xylem sap directly affects the conditions and mechanisms that allow for gas removal from xylem embolisms, because gas can dissolve into saturated or supersaturated sap only under gas pressure that is above atmospheric pressure. The method was tested for red trumpet vine, Distictis buccinatoria (Bignoniaceae), by measuring atmospheric gas concentrations in sap collected at times of minimum and maximum daily temperature and during temperature increase and decline. Mean argon concentration in xylem sap did not differ significantly from saturation levels for the temperature and pressure conditions at any time of collection, but more than 40% of all samples were supersaturated, especially during the warm parts of day. There was no significant diurnal pattern, due to high variability between samples. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Evaluation of the MACC operational forecast system - potential and challenges of global near-real-time modelling with respect to reactive gases in the troposphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Bouarar, I.; Brunke, E.-G.; Clerbaux, C.; Cupeiro, M.; Cristofanelli, P.; Eskes, H.; Flemming, J.; Flentje, H.; George, M.; Gilge, S.; Hilboll, A.; Inness, A.; Kapsomenakis, J.; Richter, A.; Ries, L.; Spangl, W.; Stein, O.; Weller, R.; Zerefos, C.

    2015-03-01

    Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC/MACCII) currently represents the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) (http://www.copernicus.eu), which will become fully operational in the course of 2015. The global near-real-time MACC model production run for aerosol and reactive gases provides daily analyses and 5 day forecasts of atmospheric composition fields. It is the only assimilation system world-wide that is operational to produce global analyses and forecasts of reactive gases and aerosol fields. We have investigated the ability of the MACC analysis system to simulate tropospheric concentrations of reactive gases (CO, O3, and NO2) covering the period between 2009 and 2012. A validation was performed based on CO and O3 surface observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network, O3 surface observations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and furthermore, NO2 tropospheric columns derived from the satellite sensors SCIAMACHY and GOME-2, and CO total columns derived from the satellite sensor MOPITT. The MACC system proved capable of reproducing reactive gas concentrations in consistent quality, however, with a seasonally dependent bias compared to surface and satellite observations: for northern hemispheric surface O3 mixing ratios, positive biases appear during the warm seasons and negative biases during the cold parts of the years, with monthly Modified Normalised Mean Biases (MNMBs) ranging between -30 and 30% at the surface. Model biases are likely to result from difficulties in the simulation of vertical mixing at night and deficiencies in the model's dry deposition parameterization. Observed tropospheric columns of NO2 and CO could be reproduced correctly during the warm seasons, but are mostly underestimated by the model during the cold seasons, when anthropogenic emissions are at a highest, especially over the US, Europe and Asia

  18. Evaluation of the MACC operational forecast system - potential and challenges of global near-real-time modelling with respect to reactive gases in the troposphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, A.; Blechschmidt, A.-M.; Bouarar, I.; Brunke, E.-G.; Clerbaux, C.; Cupeiro, M.; Cristofanelli, P.; Eskes, H.; Flemming, J.; Flentje, H.; George, M.; Gilge, S.; Hilboll, A.; Inness, A.; Kapsomenakis, J.; Richter, A.; Ries, L.; Spangl, W.; Stein, O.; Weller, R.; Zerefos, C.

    2015-12-01

    The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project represents the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) (http://www.copernicus.eu/), which became fully operational during 2015. The global near-real-time MACC model production run for aerosol and reactive gases provides daily analyses and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition fields. It is the only assimilation system worldwide that is operational to produce global analyses and forecasts of reactive gases and aerosol fields. We have investigated the ability of the MACC analysis system to simulate tropospheric concentrations of reactive gases covering the period between 2009 and 2012. A validation was performed based on carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) surface observations from the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) network, the O3 surface observations from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and, furthermore, NO2 tropospheric columns, as well as CO total columns, derived from satellite sensors. The MACC system proved capable of reproducing reactive gas concentrations with consistent quality; however, with a seasonally dependent bias compared to surface and satellite observations - for northern hemispheric surface O3 mixing ratios, positive biases appear during the warm seasons and negative biases during the cold parts of the year, with monthly modified normalised mean biases (MNMBs) ranging between -30 and 30 % at the surface. Model biases are likely to result from difficulties in the simulation of vertical mixing at night and deficiencies in the model's dry deposition parameterisation. Observed tropospheric columns of NO2 and CO could be reproduced correctly during the warm seasons, but are mostly underestimated by the model during the cold seasons, when anthropogenic emissions are at their highest level, especially over the US, Europe and Asia. Monthly MNMBs of the satellite data

  19. Supersaturation of Dissolved Hydrogen and Methane in Rumen of Tibetan Sheep

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Min; Ungerfeld, Emilio M.; Wang, Rong; Zhou, Chuan She; Basang, Zhu Zha; Ao, Si Man; Tan, Zhi Liang

    2016-01-01

    Hydrogen (H2) is an essential substrate for methanogens to produce methane (CH4), and also influences pathways of volatile fatty acids (VFA) production in the rumen. Dissolved H2 (H2 (aq)) is the form of H2 available to microbes, and dissolved CH4 (CH4 (aq)) is important for indicating methanogens activity. Rumen H2 (aq) concentration has been estimated by assuming equilibrium with headspace gaseous H2 (H2 (g)) concentration using Henry's law, and has also been directly measured in the liquid phase in some in vitro and in vivo experiments. In this in vivo study, H2 (aq) and CH4 (aq) concentration measured directly in rumen fluid and their corresponding concentrations estimated from their gaseous phase concentrations, were compared to investigate the existence of equilibrium between the gas and liquid phases. Twenty-four Tibetan sheep were randomly assigned to two mixed diets containing the same concentrate mixed with oat grass (OG diet) or barley straw (BS diet). Rumen gaseous phase and contents were sampled using rumenocentesis and oral stomach tubing, respectively. Rumen H2 (aq) and CH4 (aq) concentration and VFA profile differed between sheep fed OG and BS diets. Measured H2 (aq) and CH4 (aq) concentration were greater than H2 (aq) and CH4 (aq) concentrations estimated using gas concentrations, indicating lack of equilibrium between gas and liquid phase and supersaturation of H2 and CH4 in rumen fluid. As a consequence, Gibbs energy changes (ΔG) estimated for various metabolic pathways were different when calculated using dissolved gases concentrations directly measured and when using dissolved gases concentrations assuming equilibrium with the gaseous phase. Dissolved CH4, but not CH4 (g), was positively correlated with H2 (aq). Both H2 (aq) and H2 (g) concentrations were positively correlated with the molar percentage of butyrate and negatively correlated with the molar percentage of acetate. In summary, rumen fluid was supersaturated with both H2 and CH4

  20. A new device for continuous monitoring the CO2 dissolved in water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Gregorio, S.; Camarda, M.; Cappuzzo, S.; Giudice, G.; Gurrieri, S.; Longo, M.

    2009-04-01

    The measurements of dissolved CO2 in water are common elements of industrial processes and scientific research. In order to perform gas dissolved measurements is required to separate the dissolved gaseous phase from water. We developed a new device able to separate the gases phase directly in situ and well suitable for continuous measuring the CO2 dissolved in water. The device is made by a probe of a polytetrafluorethylene (PTFE) tube connected to an I.R. spectrophotometer (I.R.) and a pump. The PTFE is a polymeric semi-permeable membrane and allows the permeation of gas in the system. Hence, this part of the device is dipped in water in order to equilibrate the probe headspace with the dissolved gases. The partial pressure of the gas i in the headspace at equilibrium (Pi) follows the Henry's law: Pi=Hi•Ci, where Hi is the Henry's constant and Ci is the dissolved concentration of gas i. After the equilibrium is achieved, the partial pressure of CO2 inside the tube is equal to the partial pressure of dissolved CO2. The concentration of CO2 is measured by the I.R. connected to the tube. The gas is moved from the tube headspace to the I.R. by using the pump. In order to test the device and assess the best operating condition, several experimental were performed in laboratory. All the test were executed in a special apparatus where was feasible to create controlled atmospheres. Afterward the device has been placed in a draining tunnel sited in the Mt. Etna Volcano edifice (Italy). The monitored groundwater intercepts the Pernicana Fault, along which degassing phenomena are often observed. The values recorded by the station result in agreement with monthly directly measurements of dissolved CO2 partial pressure.

  1. Removal of sulfur and nitrogen containing pollutants from discharge gases

    DOEpatents

    Joubert, James I.

    1986-01-01

    Oxides of sulfur and of nitrogen are removed from waste gases by reaction with an unsupported copper oxide powder to form copper sulfate. The resulting copper sulfate is dissolved in water to effect separation from insoluble mineral ash and dried to form solid copper sulfate pentahydrate. This solid sulfate is thermally decomposed to finely divided copper oxide powder with high specific surface area. The copper oxide powder is recycled into contact with the waste gases requiring cleanup. A reducing gas can be introduced to convert the oxide of nitrogen pollutants to nitrogen.

  2. Consumption trend analysis in the industrial sector: Existing forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1981-08-01

    The Gas Research Institute (GRI) is engaged in medium- to long-range research and development in various sectors of the economy that depend on gasing technologies and equipment. To assess the potential demand for natural gas in the industrial sector, forecasts available from private and public sources were compared and analyzed. More than 20 projections were examined, and 10 of the most appropriate long-range demand forecasts were analyzed and compared with respect to the various assumptions, methodologies and criteria on which each was based.

  3. Novel Apparatus for the Real-Time Quantification of Dissolved Gas Concentrations and Isotope Ratios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, M.; Leen, J.; Baer, D. S.; Owano, T. G.; Liem, J.

    2013-12-01

    Measurements of dissolved gases and their isotopic composition are critical in studying a variety of phenomena, including underwater greenhouse gas generation, air-surface exchange, and pollution migration. These studies typically involve obtaining water samples from streams, lakes, or ocean water and transporting them to a laboratory, where they are degased. The gases obtained are then generally measured using gas chromatography and isotope ratio mass spectrometry for concentrations and isotope ratios, respectively. This conventional, off-line methodology is time consuming, significantly limits the number of the samples that can be measured and thus severely inhibits detailed spatial and temporal mapping of gas concentrations and isotope ratios. In this work, we describe the development of a new membrane-based degassing device that interfaces directly to Los Gatos Research (cavity enhanced laser absorption or Off-Axis ICOS) gas analyzers (cavity enhanced laser absorption or Off-Axis ICOS analyzers) to create an autonomous system that can continuously and quickly measure concentrations and isotope ratios of dissolved gases in real time in the field. By accurately controlling the water flow rate through the membrane degasser, gas pressure on the outside of the membrane, and water pressure on the inside of the membrane, the system is able to generate precise and highly reproducible results. Moreover, by accurately measuring the gas flow rates in and out of the degasser, the gas-phase concentrations (ppm) could be converted into dissolved gas concentrations (nM). We will present detailed laboratory test data that quantifies the linearity, precision, and dynamic range of the system for the concentrations and isotope ratios of dissolved methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide. By interfacing the degassing device to a novel cavity-enhanced spectrometer (developed by LGR), preliminary data will also be presented for dissolved volatile organics (VOC) and other

  4. In situ Measurements of Dissolved Gas Dynamics and Root Uptake in the Wetland Rhizosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, Matthew; Jaffe, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Anaerobic wetland soils are important natural sources of various atmospheric trace gases that are detrimental to the environment, including methane (CH4), nitrous oxide, elemental mercury (Hg°), and halomethanes. The balance between production and uptake in soils depends, in part, on mass transfer within the soil and between soil and the atmosphere. Observed volatilization rates of trace gases are highly variable and poorly described by models, however, so there is a clear need for new process measurements to clarify the rates of these transport mechanisms. Here we present results from mesocosm push-pull tests intended to quantify transport processes of dissolved gases in wetland sediments, with a focus on uptake by wetland plant roots and partitioning into trapped gas bubbles. This technique uses a suite of nonreactive volatile tracers to pinpoint transport mechanisms without the confounding influence of biochemical transformations. Mass balance approaches are used to determine transport kinetics, and a new analytical method to interpret dissolved gas push-pull test data is presented and compared to traditional analytical techniques. Results confirm the key role of vegetation in dramatically enhancing removal rates of dissolved gases from wetland soils. Root uptake is shown to be diffusion-limited and relative root uptake rates are modeled as an empirical function of molecular size. We use the porewater removal rates measured here to estimate potential volatilization fluxes of CH4, methyl chloride, and Hg° from wetlands vegetated with Typha latifolia and Scirpus acutus. The implementation of this new push-pull test methodology to field settings will be discussed.

  5. Attractive forces between hydrophobic solid surfaces measured by AFM on the first approach in salt solutions and in the presence of dissolved gases.

    PubMed

    Azadi, Mehdi; Nguyen, Anh V; Yakubov, Gleb E

    2015-02-17

    Interfacial gas enrichment of dissolved gases (IGE) has been shown to cover hydrophobic solid surfaces in water. The atomic force microscopy (AFM) data has recently been supported by molecular dynamics simulation. It was demonstrated that IGE is responsible for the unexpected stability and large contact angle of gaseous nanobubbles at the hydrophobic solid-water interface. Here we provide further evidence of the significant effect of IGE on an attractive force between hydrophobic solid surfaces in water. The force in the presence of dissolved gas, i.e., in aerated and nonaerated NaCl solutions (up to 4 M), was measured by the AFM colloidal probe technique. The effect of nanobubble bridging on the attractive force was minimized or eliminated by measuring forces on the first approach of the AFM probe toward the flat hydrophobic surface and by using high salt concentrations to reduce gas solubility. Our results confirm the presence of three types of forces, two of which are long-range attractive forces of capillary bridging origin as caused by either surface nanobubbles or gap-induced cavitation. The third type is a short-range attractive force observed in the absence of interfacial nanobubbles that is attributed to the IGE in the form of a dense gas layer (DGL) at hydrophobic surfaces. Such a force was found to increase with increasing gas saturation and to decrease with decreasing gas solubility.

  6. DISSOLVED OXYGEN AND METHANE IN WATER BY A GC HEADSPACE EQUILIBRATION TECHNIQUE

    EPA Science Inventory

    An analytical procedure is described for the determination of dissolved oxygen and methane in groundwater samples. The method consists of generating a helium gas headspace in a water filled bottle, and analysis of the headspace by gas chromatography. Other permanent gases such as...

  7. Process for the removal of acid forming gases from exhaust gases and production of phosphoric acid

    DOEpatents

    Chang, Shih-Ger; Liu, David K.

    1992-01-01

    Exhaust gases are treated to remove NO or NO.sub.x and SO.sub.2 by contacting the gases with an aqueous emulsion or suspension of yellow phosphorous preferably in a wet scrubber. The addition of yellow phosphorous in the system induces the production of O.sub.3 which subsequently oxidizes NO to NO.sub.2. The resulting NO.sub.2 dissolves readily and can be reduced to form ammonium ions by dissolved SO.sub.2 under appropriate conditions. In a 20 acfm system, yellow phosphorous is oxidized to yield P.sub.2 O.sub.5 which picks up water to form H.sub.3 PO.sub.4 mists and can be collected as a valuable product. The pressure is not critical, and ambient pressures are used. Hot water temperatures are best, but economics suggest about 50.degree. C. The amount of yellow phosphorus used will vary with the composition of the exhaust gas, less than 3% for small concentrations of NO, and 10% or higher for concentrations above say 1000 ppm. Similarly, the pH will vary with the composition being treated, and it is adjusted with a suitable alkali. For mixtures of NO.sub.x and SO.sub.2, alkalis that are used for flue gas desulfurization are preferred. With this process, better than 90% of SO.sub.2 and NO in simulated flue gas can be removed. Stoichiometric ratios (P/NO) ranging between 0.6 and 1.5 were obtained.

  8. [Prospects for Application of Gases and Gas Hydrates to Cryopreservation].

    PubMed

    Shishova, N V; Fesenko, E E

    2015-01-01

    In the present review, we tried to evaluate the known properties of gas hydrates and gases participating in the formation of gas hydrates from the point of view of the mechanisms of cryoinjury and cryoprotection, to consider the papers on freezing biological materials in the presence of inert gases, and to analyze the perspectives for the development of this direction. For the purpose, we searched for the information on the physical properties of gases and gas hydrates, compared processes occured during the formation of gas hydrates and water ice, analyzed the influence of the formation and growth of gas hydrates on the structure of biological objects. We prepared a short review on the biological effects of xenon, krypton, argon, carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, and carbon monoxide especially on hypothermal conditions and probable application of these properties in cryopreservation technologies. The description of the existing experiments on cryopreservation of biological objects with the use of gases was analyzed. On the basis of the information we found, the most perspective directions of work in the field of cryopreservation of biological objects with the use of gases were outlined. An attempt was made to forecast the potential problems in this field.

  9. Continuous high-frequency dissolved O2/Ar measurements by equilibrator inlet mass spectrometry.

    PubMed

    Cassar, Nicolas; Barnett, Bruce A; Bender, Michael L; Kaiser, Jan; Hamme, Roberta C; Tilbrook, Bronte

    2009-03-01

    The oxygen (O(2)) concentration in the surface ocean is influenced by biological and physical processes. With concurrent measurements of argon (Ar), which has similar solubility properties as oxygen, we can remove the physical contribution to O(2) supersaturation and determine the biological oxygen supersaturation. Biological O(2) supersaturation in the surface ocean reflects the net metabolic balance between photosynthesis and respiration, i.e., the net community productivity (NCP). We present a new method for continuous shipboard measurements of O(2)/Ar by equilibrator inlet mass spectrometry (EIMS). From these measurements and an appropriate gas exchange parametrization, NCP can be estimated at high spatial and temporal resolution. In the EIMS configuration, seawater from the ship's continuous intake flows through a cartridge enclosing a gas-permeable microporous membrane contactor. Gases in the headspace of the cartridge equilibrate with dissolved gases in the flowing seawater. A fused-silica capillary continuously samples headspace gases, and the O(2)/Ar ratio is measured by mass spectrometry. The ion current measurements on the mass spectrometer reflect the partial pressures of dissolved gases in the water flowing through the equilibrator. Calibration of the O(2)/Ar ion current ratio (32/40) is performed automatically every 2 h by sampling ambient air through a second capillary. A conceptual model demonstrates that the ratio of gases reaching the mass spectrometer is dependent on several parameters, such as the differences in molecular diffusivities and solubilities of the gases. Laboratory experiments and field observations performed by EIMS are discussed. We also present preliminary evidence that other gas measurements, such as N(2)/Ar and pCO(2) measurements, may potentially be performed with EIMS. Finally, we compare the characteristics of the EIMS with the previously described membrane inlet mass spectrometry (MIMS) approach.

  10. Dissolution of multicomponent bubbles. [gases in glass melts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinberg, M. C.; Subramanian, R. S.

    1980-01-01

    The behavior of an isolated, stationary, multicomponent gas bubble in a glassmelt containing several dissolved gases is considered. The relevant mass-transport equations are formulated and calculations are performed for the case of two diffusing gases using a quasi-stationary model and a numerical solution of the exact mass-transfer equations. The results obtained from these two approaches are compared. The factors which govern the dissolution or growth of a bubble are thermodynamic and kinetic in origin. The tendency of a bubble to grow or shrink at long times is controlled by departure from overall equilibrium, whereas the short-time bubble dynamics may be dominated by kinetic effects. As a result of the existence of these dual influences, maxima and/or minima occur in the functional dependence of the bubble radius on time.

  11. Dating base flow in streams using dissolved gases and diurnal temperature changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanford, Ward E.; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Haase, Karl B.

    2015-01-01

    A method is presented for using dissolved CFCs or SF6 to estimate the apparent age of stream base flow by indirectly estimating the mean concentration of the tracer in the inflowing groundwater. The mean value is estimated simultaneously with the mean residence times of the gas and water in the stream by sampling the stream for one or both age tracers, along with dissolved nitrogen and argon at a single location over a period of approximately 12–14 h. The data are fitted to an equation representing the temporal in-stream gas exchange as it responds to the diurnal temperature fluctuation. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated by collecting and analyzing samples at six different stream locations across parts of northern Virginia, USA. The studied streams drain watersheds with areas of between 2 and 122 km2 during periods when the diurnal stream temperature ranged between 2 and 5°C. The method has the advantage of estimating the mean groundwater residence time of discharge from the watershed to the stream without the need for the collection of groundwater infiltrating to streambeds or local groundwater sampled from shallow observation wells near the stream.

  12. Mass balances of dissolved gases at river network scales across biomes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wollheim, W. M.; Stewart, R. J.; Sheehan, K.

    2016-12-01

    Estimating aquatic metabolism and gas fluxes at broad spatial scales is needed to evaluate the role of aquatic ecosystems in continental carbon cycles. We applied a river network model, FrAMES, to quantify the mass balances of dissolved oxygen at river network scales across five river networks in different biomes. The model accounts for hydrology; spatially varying re-aeration rates due to flow, slope, and water temperature; gas inputs via terrestrial runoff; variation in light due to canopy cover and water depth; benthic gross primary production; and benthic respiration. The model was parameterized using existing groundwater information and empirical relationships of GPP, R, and re-aeration, and was tested using dissolved oxygen patterns measured throughout river networks. We found that during summers, internal aquatic production dominates the river network mass balance of Kings Cr., Konza Prairie, KS (16.3 km2), whereas terrestrial inputs and aeration dominate the network mass balance at Coweeta Cr., Coweeta Forest, NC (15.7 km2). At network scales, both river networks are net heterotrophic, with Coweeta more so than Kings Cr. (P:R 0.6 vs. 0.7, respectively). The river network of Kings Creek showed higher network-scale GPP and R compared to Coweeta, despite having a lower drainage density because streams are on average wider so cumulative benthic surface areas are similar. Our findings suggest that the role of aquatic systems in watershed carbon balances will depend on interactions of drainage density, channel hydraulics, terrestrial vegetation, and biological activity.

  13. Application of polymer-coated metal-insulator-semiconductor sensors for the detection of dissolved hydrogen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dongmei; Medlin, J. W.; Bastasz, R.

    2006-06-01

    The detection of dissolved hydrogen in liquids is crucial to many industrial applications, such as fault detection for oil-filled electrical equipment. To enhance the performance of metal-insulator-semiconductor (MIS) sensors for dissolved hydrogen detection, a palladium MIS sensor has been modified by depositing a polyimide (PI) layer above the palladium surface. Response measurements of the PI-coated sensors in mineral oil indicate that hydrogen is sensitively detected, while the effect of interfering gases on sensor response is minimized.

  14. Forecasting volcanic air pollution in Hawaii: Tests of time series models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2012-12-01

    Volcanic air pollution, known as vog (volcanic smog) has recently become a major issue in the Hawaiian islands. Vog is caused when volcanic gases react with oxygen and water vapor. It consists of a mixture of gases and aerosols, which include sulfur dioxide and other sulfates. The source of the volcanic gases is the continuing eruption of Mount Kilauea. This paper studies predicting vog using statistical methods. The data sets include time series for SO2 and SO4, over locations spanning the west, south and southeast coasts of Hawaii, and the city of Hilo. The forecasting models include regressions and neural networks, and a frequency domain algorithm. The most typical pattern for the SO2 data is for the frequency domain method to yield the most accurate forecasts over the first few hours, and at the 24 h horizon. The neural net places second. For the SO4 data, the results are less consistent. At two sites, the neural net generally yields the most accurate forecasts, except at the 1 and 24 h horizons, where the frequency domain technique wins narrowly. At one site, the neural net and the frequency domain algorithm yield comparable errors over the first 5 h, after which the neural net dominates. At the remaining site, the frequency domain method is more accurate over the first 4 h, after which the neural net achieves smaller errors. For all the series, the average errors are well within one standard deviation of the actual data at all the horizons. However, the errors also show irregular outliers. In essence, the models capture the central tendency of the data, but are less effective in predicting the extreme events.

  15. Using dissolved gas analysis to investigate the performance of an organic carbon permeable reactive barrier for the treatment of mine drainage

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, R.L.; Mayer, K.U.; Amos, R.T.; Blowes, D.W.; Ptacek, C.J.; Bain, J.G.

    2007-01-01

    The strongly reducing nature of permeable reactive barrier (PRB) treatment materials can lead to gas production, potentially resulting in the formation of gas bubbles and ebullition. Degassing in organic C based PRB systems due to the production of gases (primarily CO2 and CH4) is investigated using the depletion of naturally occurring non-reactive gases Ar and N2, to identify, confirm, and quantify chemical and physical processes. Sampling and analysis of dissolved gases were performed at the Nickel Rim Mine Organic Carbon PRB, which was designed for the treatment of groundwater contaminated by low quality mine drainage characterized by slightly acidic pH, and elevated Fe(II) and SO4 concentrations. A simple 4-gas degassing model was used to analyze the dissolved gas data, and the results indicate that SO4 reduction is by far the dominant process of organic C consumption within the barrier. The data provided additional information to delineate rates of microbially mediated SO4 reduction and confirm the presence of slow and fast flow zones within the barrier. Degassing was incorporated into multicomponent reactive transport simulations for the barrier and the simulations were successful in reproducing observed dissolved gas trends.

  16. Dissolved gases in the DOSECC Cajon Pass well: first year results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Evans, William C.; White, L.D.; Kharaka, Y.K.

    1988-01-01

    Fluid sampled from granitic rock near the 2 km depth in the DOSECC Cajon Pass well contained He, H2, CH4, C2H6, and C2 H4 in concentrations much greater than in air-saturated water. Measured pCO2 values were very low, about 10-5 atm., and the carbon isotopes (??13C = -18.9 per mil) point to an organic source such as plant root respiration for the dissolved carbonate species. No evidence of mantle volatiles was found despite proximity of the well to the San Andreas fault. -from Authors

  17. Forecasting, Forecasting

    Treesearch

    Michael A. Fosberg

    1987-01-01

    Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

  18. Investigation of arterial gas occlusions. [effect of noncondensable gases on high performance heat pipes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Saaski, E. W.

    1974-01-01

    The effect of noncondensable gases on high-performance arterial heat pipes was investigated both analytically and experimentally. Models have been generated which characterize the dissolution of gases in condensate, and the diffusional loss of dissolved gases from condensate in arterial flow. These processes, and others, were used to postulate stability criteria for arterial heat pipes under isothermal and non-isothermal condensate flow conditions. A rigorous second-order gas-loaded heat pipe model, incorporating axial conduction and one-dimensional vapor transport, was produced and used for thermal and gas studies. A Freon-22 (CHCIF2) heat pipe was used with helium and xenon to validate modeling. With helium, experimental data compared well with theory. Unusual gas-control effects with xenon were attributed to high solubility.

  19. ANALYSIS OF DISSOLVED METHANE, ETHANE, AND ETHYLENE IN GROUND WATER BY A STANDARD GAS CHROMATOGRAPHIC TECHNIQUE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The measurement of dissolved gases such as methane, ethane, and ethylene in ground water is important in determining whether intrinsic bioremediation is occurring in a fuel- or solvent-contaminated aquifer. A simple procedure is described for the collection and subsequent analys...

  20. Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knowland, E. Emma; Keller, Christoph; Nielsen, J. Eric; Orbe, Clara; Ott, Lesley; Pawson, Steven; Saunders, Emily; Duncan, Bryan; Cook, Melanie; Liu, Junhua; hide

    2017-01-01

    We provide an introduction to a new high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition forecast produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km). Previously, this combination of detailed chemistry and resolution was only provided by regional models. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 11) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest resolution compared to current, publically-available global composition forecasts. Evaluation and validation of modeled trace gases and aerosols compared to surface and satellite observations will be presented for constituents relative to health air quality standards. Comparisons of modeled trace gases and aerosols against satellite observations show that the model produces realistic concentrations of atmospheric constituents in the free troposphere. Model comparisons against surface observations highlight the model's capability to capture the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. The GEOS-5 composition forecasting system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community, and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. Potential applications include air quality warnings, flight campaign planning and exposure studies using the archived analysis fields.

  1. Analysis of dissolved gas and fluid chemistry in mountainous region of Goaping river watershed in southern Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Kai-Wen; Chen, Cheng-Hong; Liu, Tsung-Kwei

    2016-04-01

    Annual rainfall in Taiwan is up to 2500 mm, about 2.5 times the average value of the world. However due to high topographic relief of the Central Mountain Range in Taiwan, groundwater storage is critical for water supply. Mountain region of the Goaping river watershed in southern Taiwan is one of the potential areas to develop groundwater recharge model. Therefore the target of this study is to understand sources of groundwater and surface water using dissolved gas and fluid chemistry. Four groundwater and 6 surface water samples were collected from watershed, 5 groundwater and 13 surface water samples were collected from downstream. All samples were analyzed for stable isotopes (hydrogen and oxygen), dissolved gases (including nitrogen, oxygen, argon, methane and carbon dioxide), noble gases (helium and radon) and major ions. Hydrogen and oxygen isotopic ratios of surface water and groundwater samples aligned along meteoric water line. For surface water, dissolved gases are abundant in N2 (>80%) and O2 (>10%); helium isotopic ratio is approximately equal to 1 RA (RA is 3He/4He ratio of air); radon-222 concentration is below the detection limit (<200 Bq/m3); and concentrations of major anions and cations are low (Na+ <20 ppm, Ca2+ < 60 ppm, Cl- <2 ppm). All these features indicate that surface waters are predominately recharged by precipitation. For groundwater, helium isotopic ratios (0.9˜0.23 RA) are lower and radon-222 concentrations (300˜6000 Bq/m3) are much higher than the surface water. Some samples have high amounts of dissolved gases, such as CH4 (>20%) or CO2 (>10%), most likely contributed by biogenic or geogenic sources. On the other hand, few samples that have temperature 5° higher than the average of other samples, show significantly high Na+ (>1000 ppm), Ca2+ (>150 ppm) and Cl- (>80 ppm) concentrations. An interaction between such groundwater and local hot springs is inferred. Watershed and downstream samples differ in dissolved gas species and

  2. Method to Estimate the Dissolved Air Content in Hydraulic Fluid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hauser, Daniel M.

    2011-01-01

    In order to verify the air content in hydraulic fluid, an instrument was needed to measure the dissolved air content before the fluid was loaded into the system. The instrument also needed to measure the dissolved air content in situ and in real time during the de-aeration process. The current methods used to measure the dissolved air content require the fluid to be drawn from the hydraulic system, and additional offline laboratory processing time is involved. During laboratory processing, there is a potential for contamination to occur, especially when subsaturated fluid is to be analyzed. A new method measures the amount of dissolved air in hydraulic fluid through the use of a dissolved oxygen meter. The device measures the dissolved air content through an in situ, real-time process that requires no additional offline laboratory processing time. The method utilizes an instrument that measures the partial pressure of oxygen in the hydraulic fluid. By using a standardized calculation procedure that relates the oxygen partial pressure to the volume of dissolved air in solution, the dissolved air content is estimated. The technique employs luminescent quenching technology to determine the partial pressure of oxygen in the hydraulic fluid. An estimated Henry s law coefficient for oxygen and nitrogen in hydraulic fluid is calculated using a standard method to estimate the solubility of gases in lubricants. The amount of dissolved oxygen in the hydraulic fluid is estimated using the Henry s solubility coefficient and the measured partial pressure of oxygen in solution. The amount of dissolved nitrogen that is in solution is estimated by assuming that the ratio of dissolved nitrogen to dissolved oxygen is equal to the ratio of the gas solubility of nitrogen to oxygen at atmospheric pressure and temperature. The technique was performed at atmospheric pressure and room temperature. The technique could be theoretically carried out at higher pressures and elevated

  3. Ice Harbor Spillway Dissolved Gas Field Studies: Before and After Spillway Deflectors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-07-01

    Executive Summary The operation of spillways on the Columbia and Snake Rivers causes the absorption of atmospheric gases (chiefly nitrogen and oxygen) to...chiefly nitrogen and oxygen) to super- saturated levels. For many operations, the total dissolved gas (TDG) levels exceed state and National...powerhouse releases. However, these mass- balance calculations conclusively show that a substantial portion of the powerhouse discharge becomes entrained

  4. Process for removal of ammonia and acid gases from contaminated waters

    DOEpatents

    King, C. Judson; MacKenzie, Patricia D.

    1985-01-01

    Contaminating basic gases, i.e., ammonia, and acid gases, e.g., carbon dioxide, are removed from process waters or waste waters in a combined extraction and stripping process. Ammonia in the form of ammonium ion is extracted by an immiscible organic phase comprising a liquid cation exchange component, especially an organic phosphoric acid derivative, and preferably di-2-ethyl hexyl phosphoric acid, dissolved in an alkyl hydrocarbon, aryl hydrocarbon, higher alcohol, oxygenated hydrocarbon, halogenated hydrocarbon, and mixtures thereof. Concurrently, the acidic gaseous contaminants are stripped from the process or waste waters by stripping with steam, air, nitrogen, or the like. The liquid cation exchange component has the ammonia stripped therefrom by heating, and the component may be recycled to extract additional amounts of ammonia.

  5. Process for removal of ammonia and acid gases from contaminated waters

    DOEpatents

    King, C.J.; Mackenzie, P.D.

    1982-09-03

    Contaminating basic gases, i.e., ammonia and acid gases, e.g., carbon dioxide, are removed from process waters or waste waters in a combined extraction and stripping process. Ammonia in the form of ammonium ion is extracted by an immiscible organic phase comprising a liquid cation exchange component, especially an organic phosphoric acid derivative, and preferably di-2-ethyl hexyl phosphoric acid, dissolved in an alkyl hydrocarbon, aryl hydrocarbon, higher alcohol, oxygenated hydrocarbon, halogenated hydrocarbon, and mixtures thereof. Concurrently, the acidic gaseous contaminants are stripped from the process or waste waters by stripping with stream, air, nitrogen, or the like. The liquid cation exchange component has the ammonia stripped therefrom by heating, and the component may be recycled to extract additional amounts of ammonia.

  6. Tracing Acetylene Dissolved in Transformer Oil by Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectrum.

    PubMed

    Ma, Guo-Ming; Zhao, Shu-Jing; Jiang, Jun; Song, Hong-Tu; Li, Cheng-Rong; Luo, Ying-Ting; Wu, Hao

    2017-11-02

    Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) is widely used in monitoring and diagnosing of power transformer, since the insulation material in the power transformer decomposes gases under abnormal operation condition. Among the gases, acetylene, as a symbol of low energy spark discharge and high energy electrical faults (arc discharge) of power transformer, is an important monitoring parameter. The current gas detection method used by the online DGA equipment suffers from problems such as cross sensitivity, electromagnetic compatibility and reliability. In this paper, an optical gas detection system based on TDLAS technology is proposed to detect acetylene dissolved in transformer oil. We selected a 1530.370 nm laser in the near infrared wavelength range to correspond to the absorption peak of acetylene, while using the wavelength modulation strategy and Herriott cell to improve the detection precision. Results show that the limit of detection reaches 0.49 ppm. The detection system responds quickly to changes of gas concentration and is easily to maintenance while has no electromagnetic interference, cross-sensitivity, or carrier gas. In addition, a complete detection process of the system takes only 8 minutes, implying a practical prospect of online monitoring technology.

  7. Incorporation of Solar Noble Gases from a Nebula-Derived Atmosphere During Magma Ocean Cooling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Woolum, D. S.; Cassen, P.; Wasserburg, G. J.; Porcelli, D.; DeVincenzi, Donald (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    The presence of solar noble gases in the deep interior of the Earth is inferred from the Ne isotopic compositions of MORB (Mid-ocean Ridge Basalts) and OIB (Oceanic Island Basalt); Ar data may also consistent with a solar component in the deep mantle. Models of the transport and distribution of noble gases in the earth's mantle allow for the presence of solar Ar/Ne and Xe/Ne ratios and permit the calculation of lower mantle noble gas concentrations. These mantle data and models also indicate that the Earth suffered early (0.7 to 2 x 10(exp 8) yr) and large (greater than 99 percent) losses of noble gases from the interior, a result previously concluded for atmospheric Xe. We have pursued the suggestion that solar noble gases were incorporated in the forming Earth from a massive, nebula-derived atmosphere which promoted large-scale melting, so that gases from this atmosphere dissolved in the magma ocean and were mixed downward. Models of a primitive atmosphere captured from the solar nebula and supported by accretion luminosity indicate that pressures at the Earth's surface were adequate (and largely more than the required 100 Atm) to dissolve sufficient gases. We have calculated the coupled evolution of the magma ocean and the overlying atmosphere under conditions corresponding to the cessation (or severe attenuation) of the sustaining accretion luminosity, prior to the complete removal of the solar nebula. Such a condition was likely to obtain, for instance, when most of the unaccumulated mass resided in large bodies which were only sporadically accreted. The luminosity supporting the atmosphere is then that provided by the cooling Earth, consideration of which sets a lower limit to the time required to solidify the mantle and terminate the incorporation of atmospheric gases within it. In our initial calculations, we have fixed the nebula temperature at To = 300K, a value likely to be appropriate for nebular temperatures at lAU in the early planet-building epoch

  8. A hybrid intelligent method for three-dimensional short-term prediction of dissolved oxygen content in aquaculture.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yingyi; Yu, Huihui; Cheng, Yanjun; Cheng, Qianqian; Li, Daoliang

    2018-01-01

    A precise predictive model is important for obtaining a clear understanding of the changes in dissolved oxygen content in crab ponds. Highly accurate interval forecasting of dissolved oxygen content is fundamental to reduce risk, and three-dimensional prediction can provide more accurate results and overall guidance. In this study, a hybrid three-dimensional (3D) dissolved oxygen content prediction model based on a radial basis function (RBF) neural network, K-means and subtractive clustering was developed and named the subtractive clustering (SC)-K-means-RBF model. In this modeling process, K-means and subtractive clustering methods were employed to enhance the hyperparameters required in the RBF neural network model. The comparison of the predicted results of different traditional models validated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed hybrid SC-K-means-RBF model for three-dimensional prediction of dissolved oxygen content. Consequently, the proposed model can effectively display the three-dimensional distribution of dissolved oxygen content and serve as a guide for feeding and future studies.

  9. Investigating ebullition in a sand column using dissolved gas analysis and reactive transport modeling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amos, Richard T.; Mayer, K. Ulrich

    2006-01-01

    Ebullition of gas bubbles through saturated sediments can enhance the migration of gases through the subsurface, affect the rate of biogeochemical processes, and potentially enhance the emission of important greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. To better understand the parameters controlling ebullition, methanogenic conditions were produced in a column experiment and ebullition through the column was monitored and quantified through dissolved gas analysis and reactive transport modeling. Dissolved gas analysis showed rapid transport of CH4 vertically through the column at rates several times faster than the bromide tracer and the more soluble gas CO2, indicating that ebullition was the main transport mechanism for CH4. An empirically derived formulation describing ebullition was integrated into the reactive transport code MIN3P allowing this process to be investigated on the REV scale in a complex geochemical framework. The simulations provided insights into the parameters controlling ebullition and show that, over the duration of the experiment, 36% of the CH4 and 19% of the CO2 produced were transported to the top of the column through ebullition.

  10. Bubble growth as a means to measure dissolved nitrogen concentration in aerated water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ando, Keita; Yamashita, Tatsuya

    2017-11-01

    Controlling the amount of dissolved gases in water is important, for example, to food processing; it is essential to quantitatively evaluate dissolved gas concentration. The concentration of dissolved oxygen (DO) can be measured by commercial DO meters, but that of dissolved nitrogen (DN) cannot be obtained easily. Here, we propose a means to measure DN concentration based on Epstein-Plesset-type analysis of bubble growth under dissolved gas supersaturation. DO supersaturation in water is produced by oxygen microbubble aeration. The diffusion-driven growth of bubbles nucleated at glass surfaces in contact with the aerated water is first observed. The observed growth is then compared to the extended Epstein-Plesset theory that considers Fick's mass transfer of both DO and DN across bubble interfaces; in this comparison, the unknown DN concentration is treated as a fitting parameter. Comparisons between the experiment and the theory suggest, as expected, that DN can be effectively purged by oxygen microbubble aeration. This study was supported in part by the Mizuho Foundation for the Promotion of Science and by a MEXT Grant-in-Aid for the Program for Leading Graduate Schools.

  11. The solubility of noble gases in crude oil at 25-100°C

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kharaka, Yousif K.; Specht, Daniel J.

    1988-01-01

    The solubility of the noble gases He, Ne, Ar, Kr and Xe was measured in two typical crude oils at temperatures of 25–100°C. The oil samples were obtained from the Elk Hills oil field located in southern San Joaquin Valley, California. The experimental procedure consisted of placing a known amount of gas with a known volume of crude oil in a stainless steel hydrothermal pressure vessel. The vessel was housed inside an oven and the entire unit rotates providing continuous mixing. The amount of gas dissolved in oil at a measured temperature and partial pressure of gas was used to calculate the solubility constants for these gases. Results show that the solubility of He and Ne in both oils is approximately the same; solubility then increases with atomic mass, with the solubility of Xe at 25°C being two orders of magnitude higher than that of He. The gas solubilities are somewhat higher in the lower density (higher API gravity) oil. The solubility of Ar is approximately constant in the range of temperatures of this study. The solubilities of He and Ne increase, but those of Kr and Xe decrease with increasing temperatures. Solubilities of noble gases in crude oil are significantly higher than their solubilities in water. For example, the solubilities of He and Xe at 25°C in the light oil of this study are, respectively, 3 and 24 times higher than their solubilities in pure water, and they are 15 and 300 times higher than in a brine with a salinity of 350,000 mg/l dissolved solids. These large and variable differences in the solubilities of noble gases in oil and water indicate that, in sedimentary basins with oil, these gases must be partitioned between oil, water and natural gas before they are used to deduce the origin and residence time of these fluids.

  12. Aqueous Mesocosm Techniques Enabling the Real-Time Measurement of the Chemical and Isotopic Kinetics of Dissolved Methane and Carbon Dioxide.

    PubMed

    Chan, Eric W; Kessler, John D; Shiller, Alan M; Joung, DongJoo; Colombo, Frank

    2016-03-15

    Previous studies of microbially mediated methane oxidation in oceanic environments have examined the many different factors that control the rates of oxidation. However, there is debate on what factor(s) are limiting in these types of environments. These factors include the availability of methane, O2, trace metals, nutrients, the density of cell population, and the influence that CO2 production may have on pH. To look at this process in its entirety, we developed an automated mesocosm incubation system with a Dissolved Gas Analysis System (DGAS) coupled to a myriad of analytical tools to monitor chemical changes during methane oxidation. Here, we present new high temporal resolution techniques for investigating dissolved methane and carbon dioxide concentrations and stable isotopic dynamics during aqueous mesocosm and pure culture incubations. These techniques enable us to analyze the gases dissolved in solution and are nondestructive to both the liquid media and the analyzed gases enabling the investigation of a mesocosm or pure culture experiment in a completely closed system, if so desired.

  13. Acquisition and Early Losses of Rare Gases from the Deep Earth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Porcelli, D.; Cassen, P.; Woolum, D.; Wasserburg, G. J.

    1998-01-01

    Direct observations show that the deep Earth contains rare gases of solar composition distinct from those in the atmosphere. We examine the implications of mantle rare gas characteristics on acquisition of rare gases from the solar nebula and subsequent losses due to a large impact. Deep mantle rare gas concentrations and isotopic compositions can be obtained from a model of transport and distribution of mantle rare gases. This model assumes the lower mantle closed early, while the upper mantle is open to subduction from the atmosphere and mass transfer from the lower mantle. Constraints are derived that can be incorporated into models for terrestrial volatile acquisition: (1) Calculated lower-mantle Xe-isotopic ratios indicate that the fraction of radiogenic Xe produced by I-129 and Pu-244 during the first about 10(exp 8) yr was lost, a conclusion also drawn for atmospheric Xe. Thus, either the Earth was made from materials that had lost >99% of rare gases about (0.7-2) x 10(exp 8) yr after the solar system formed, or gases were then lost from the fully formed Earth. (2) Concentrations of 3He and 20Ne in the lower mantle were established after these losses. (3) Neon-isotopic data indicates that mantle Ne has solar composition. The model allows for solar Ar/Ne and Xe/Ne in the lower mantle if a dominant fraction of upper mantle Ar and Xe are subduction-derived. If Earth formed in the presence of the solar nebula, it could have been melted by accretional energy and the blanketing effect of a massive, nebula-derived atmosphere. Gases from this atmosphere would have been sequestered within the molten Earth by dissolution at the surface and downward mixing. It was found that too much Ne would be dissolved in the Earth unless the atmosphere began to escape when the Earth was only partially assembled. Here we consider conditions required to initially dissolve sufficient rare gases to account for the present lower mantle concentrations after subsequent losses at 10(exp 8

  14. AIRS: Improving Weather Forecasting and Providing New Data on Greenhouse Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chahine, Moustafa T.; Pagano, Thomas S.; Aumann, Hartmut H.; Atlas, Robert; Barnet, Christopher; Blaisdell, John; Chen, Luke; Divakarla, Murty; Fetzer, Eric J.; Goldberg, Mitch; hide

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the performance of AIRS and examines how it is meeting its operational and research objectives based on the experience of more than 2 yr with AIRS data. We describe the science background and the performance of AIRS in terms of the accuracy and stability of its observed spectral radiances. We examine the validation of the retrieved temperature and water vapor profiles against collocated operational radiosondes, and then we assess the impact thereof on numerical weather forecasting of the assimilation of the AIRS spectra and the retrieved temperature. We close the paper with a discussion on the retrieval of several minor tropospheric constituents from AIRS spectra.

  15. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  16. Dissolved Gases in Seawater and Sediments (Paper 7R0315)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Key, R. M.

    1987-07-01

    Certainly the most controversial results derived from the study of any dissolved gas concerned oxygen utilization rates in the North Atlantic. Jenkins (1982) estimated a net oxy-gen utilization rate (OUR) for the Beta triangle region of the North Atlantic (apices 26.5°N x 38.5°W, 32.5°N x 30.0°W, and 22.5°N x 28.5°W) of 5.7 moles of oxygen consumed m-2 yr-1 for the zone below 100m. He assumed that the oxygen distribution below the euphotic zone was stationary and steady state and therfore that the in situ oxygen consumption must be balanced by physical transport of oxygen into the area. His estimates were based on measured distributions of dissolved oxygen and the tracers 3He and 3H and a simple model which assumed lateral advection was small. The derived value or OUR was several times higher that previous estimates based on 14C and 15N incubation techniques. The OUR requires a downward flux of carbon from the photic zone of approximately 50 gCm-2yr-1 , which is again much higher that previous results. Jenkins and Goldman (1985) amplified the arguments in a study of seasonal oxygen cycling and primary production based on a ten year time series of measurements from the Panulirus station near Bermuda. Considering insolation, heat budgets and 3He/3H data they estimated a vertically integrated oxygen production rate of 5 Mm-2yr-1 and a subsequent new production of 50 gCm-2yr-1. The results were supported by calculations based on a second order turbulence closure model (Klein and Coste, 1984). These results have been challenged primarily on the basis of the spatial variability of the phenomenon!. Whatever the final outcome Jenkins has clearly demonstrated that the time has come to take a fresh look at oxygen utilization rates and primary productivity given the tools and modelling capabilities now at hand. The TTO data set will go a long way toward providing the necessary data set for the North Atlantic when the analyses are complete. Other studies have dealt with

  17. A hybrid intelligent method for three-dimensional short-term prediction of dissolved oxygen content in aquaculture

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Huihui; Cheng, Yanjun; Cheng, Qianqian; Li, Daoliang

    2018-01-01

    A precise predictive model is important for obtaining a clear understanding of the changes in dissolved oxygen content in crab ponds. Highly accurate interval forecasting of dissolved oxygen content is fundamental to reduce risk, and three-dimensional prediction can provide more accurate results and overall guidance. In this study, a hybrid three-dimensional (3D) dissolved oxygen content prediction model based on a radial basis function (RBF) neural network, K-means and subtractive clustering was developed and named the subtractive clustering (SC)-K-means-RBF model. In this modeling process, K-means and subtractive clustering methods were employed to enhance the hyperparameters required in the RBF neural network model. The comparison of the predicted results of different traditional models validated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed hybrid SC-K-means-RBF model for three-dimensional prediction of dissolved oxygen content. Consequently, the proposed model can effectively display the three-dimensional distribution of dissolved oxygen content and serve as a guide for feeding and future studies. PMID:29466394

  18. Measuring Concentrations of Dissolved Methane and Ethane and the 13 C of Methane in Shale and Till.

    PubMed

    Hendry, M Jim; Barbour, S Lee; Schmeling, Erin E; Mundle, Scott O C

    2017-01-01

    Baseline characterization of concentrations and isotopic values of dissolved natural gases is needed to identify contamination caused by the leakage of fugitive gases from oil and gas activities. Methods to collect and analyze baseline concentration-depth profiles of dissolved CH 4 and C 2 H 6 and δ 13 C-CH 4 in shales and Quaternary clayey tills were assessed at two sites in the Williston Basin, Canada. Core and cuttings samples were stored in Isojars ® in a low O 2 headspace prior to analysis. Measurements and multiphase diffusion modeling show that the gas concentrations in core samples yield well-defined and reproducible depth profiles after 31-d equilibration. No measurable oxidative loss or production during core sample storage was observed. Concentrations from cuttings and mud gas logging (including IsoTubes ® ) were much lower than from cores, but correlated well. Simulations suggest the lower concentrations from cuttings can be attributed to drilling time, and therefore their use to define gas concentration profiles may have inherent limitations. Calculations based on mud gas logging show the method can provide estimates of core concentrations if operational parameters for the mud gas capture cylinder are quantified. The δ 13 C-CH 4 measured from mud gas, IsoTubes ® , cuttings, and core samples are consistent, exhibiting slight variations that should not alter the implications of the results in identifying the sources of the gases. This study shows core and mud gas techniques and, to a lesser extent, cuttings, can generate high-resolution depth profiles of dissolved hydrocarbon gas concentrations and their isotopes. © 2016, National Ground Water Association.

  19. Investigation of spray characteristics for flashing injection of fuels containing dissolved air and superheated fuels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Solomon, A. S. P.; Chen, L. D.; Faeth, G. M.

    1982-01-01

    The flow, atomization and spreading of flashing injector flowing liquids containing dissolved gases (jet/air) as well as superheated liquids (Freon II) were considered. The use of a two stage expansion process separated by an expansion chamber, ws found to be beneficial for flashing injection particularly for dissolved gas systems. Both locally homogeneous and separated flow models provided good predictions of injector flow properties. Conventional correlations for drop sizes from pressure atomized and airblast injectors were successfully modified, using the separated flow model to prescribe injector exit conditions, to correlate drop size measurements. Additional experimental results are provided for spray angle and combustion properties of sprays from flashing injectors.

  20. Vesicles in Apollo 15 Green Glasses: The Nature of Ancient Lunar Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas-Keprta, K. L.; Clemett, S. J.; Berger, E. L.; Rahman, Z.; McKay, D. S.; Gibson, E. K.; Wentworth, S. J.

    2014-01-01

    Detailed studies of Apollo 15 green glass and related beads have shown they were formed in gas-rich fire fountains.. As the magmatic fluid became super-saturated in volatile gas, bubbles or vesicles formed within the magma. These exsolved gases became trapped within vesicles as the glasses were ejected from the fire-fountain and subsequently quenched. One of the keys to understanding formation processes on the ancient moon includes determining the composition of volatile species and elements, including metals, dissolved in magmatic gases. Here we report the nature of mineral phases spatially associated with vesicles in a green glass bead from Apollo sample 15411,42. The phases reflect the composition of the cooling/degassing magmatic vapors and fluids present at the time of bead formation approx, 3 Ga ago

  1. Lagrangian Aerosol and Ozone Precursor Forecasts Utilizing NASA Aura OMI NO2 and NOAA GOES-GASP AOD Observations

    EPA Science Inventory

    Over the past decade, the remote sensing of trace gases and aerosols from space has dramatically improved. The emergence and application of these measurements adds a new dimension to air quality Management and forecasting by enabling consistent observations of pollutants over l...

  2. Volcanic Gases and Hot Spring Water to Evaluate the Volcanic Activity of the Mt. Baekdusan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yun, S. H.; Lee, S.; Chang, C.

    2017-12-01

    This study performed the analysis on the volcanic gases and hot spring waters from the Julong hot spring at Mt. Baekdu, also known as Changbaishan on the North Korea(DPRK)-China border, during the period from July 2015 to August 2016. Also, we confirmed the errors that HCO3- concentrations of hot spring waters in the previous study (Lee et al. 2014) and tried to improve the problem. Dissolved CO2 in hot spring waters was analyzed using gas chromatograph in Lee et al.(2014). Improving this, from 2015, we used TOC-IC to analysis dissolved CO2. Also, we analyzed the Na2CO3 standard solutions of different concentrations using GC, and confirmed the correlation between the analytical concentrations and the real concentrations. However, because the analytical results of the Julong hot spring water were in discord with the estimated values based on this correlation, we can't estimate the HCO3-concentrations of 2014 samples. During the period of study, CO2/CH4 ratios in volcanic gases are gradually decreased, and this can be interpreted in two different ways. The first interpretation is that the conditions inside the volcanic edifice are changing into more reduction condition, and carbon in volcanic gases become more favorable to distribute into CH4 or CO than CO2. The second interpretation is that the interaction between volcanic gases and water becomes greater than past, and the concentrations of CO2which have much higher solubility in water decreased, relatively. In general, the effect of scrubbing of volcanic gas is strengthened during the quiet periods of volcanic activity rather than active periods. Meanwhile, the analysis of hot spring waters was done on the anion of acidic gases species, the major cations, and some trace elements (As, Cd, Re).This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-3060.

  3. Emissions of biogenic sulfur gases from northern bogs and fens

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demello, William Zamboni; Hines, Mark E.; Bayley, Suzanne E.

    1992-01-01

    Sulfur gases are important components of the global cycle of S. They contribute to the acidity of precipitation and they influence global radiation balance and climate. The role of terrestrial sources of biogenic S and their effect on atmospheric chemistry remain as major unanswered questions in our understanding of the natural S cycle. The role of northern wetlands as sources and sinks of gaseous S by measuring rates of S gas exchange as a function of season, hydrologic conditions, and gradients in tropic status was investigated. Experiments were conducted in wetlands in New Hampshire, particularly a poor fen, and in Mire 239, a poor fen at the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) in Ontario. Emissions were determined using Teflon enclosures, gas cryotrapping methods and gas chromatography (GC) with flame photometric detection. Dynamic (sweep flow) and static enclosures were employed which yielded similar results. Dissolved S gases and methane were determined by gas stripping followed by GC.

  4. Understanding and forecasting phreatic eruptions driven by magmatic degassing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stix, John; de Moor, J. Maarten

    2018-05-01

    This paper examines phreatic eruptions which are driven by inputs of magma and magmatic gas. We synthesize data from several significant phreatic systems, including two in Costa Rica (Turrialba and Poás) which are currently highly active and hazardous. We define two endmember types of phreatic eruptions, the first (type 1) in which a deeper hydrothermal system fed by magmatic gases is sealed and produces overpressure sufficient to drive explosive eruptions, and the second (type 2) where magmatic gases are supplied via open-vent degassing to a near-surface hydrothermal system, vaporizing liquid water which drives the phreatic eruptions. The surficial source of type 2 eruptions is characteristic, while the source depth of type 1 eruptions is commonly greater. Hence, type 1 eruptions tend to be more energetic than type 2 eruptions. The first type of eruption we term "phreato-vulcanian", and the second we term "phreato-surtseyan". Some systems (e.g., Ruapehu, Poás) can produce both type 1 and type 2 eruptions, and all systems can undergo sealing at various timescales. We examine a number of precursory signals which appear to be important in understanding and forecasting phreatic eruptions; these include very long period events, banded tremor, and gas ratios, in particular H2S/SO2 and CO2/SO2. We propose that if these datasets are carefully integrated during a monitoring program, it may be possible to accurately forecast phreatic eruptions.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

  5. [Roles of soil dissolved organic carbon in carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems: a review].

    PubMed

    Li, Ling; Qiu, Shao-Jun; Liu, Jing-Tao; Liu, Qing; Lu, Zhao-Hua

    2012-05-01

    Soil dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is an active fraction of soil organic carbon pool, playing an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems. In view of the importance of the carbon cycling, this paper summarized the roles of soil DOC in the soil carbon sequestration and greenhouse gases emission, and in considering of our present ecological and environmental problems such as soil acidification and climate warming, discussed the effects of soil properties, environmental factors, and human activities on the soil DOC as well as the response mechanisms of the DOC. This review could be helpful to the further understanding of the importance of soil DOC in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems and the reduction of greenhouse gases emission.

  6. Canonical partition functions: ideal quantum gases, interacting classical gases, and interacting quantum gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Chi-Chun; Dai, Wu-Sheng

    2018-02-01

    In statistical mechanics, for a system with a fixed number of particles, e.g. a finite-size system, strictly speaking, the thermodynamic quantity needs to be calculated in the canonical ensemble. Nevertheless, the calculation of the canonical partition function is difficult. In this paper, based on the mathematical theory of the symmetric function, we suggest a method for the calculation of the canonical partition function of ideal quantum gases, including ideal Bose, Fermi, and Gentile gases. Moreover, we express the canonical partition functions of interacting classical and quantum gases given by the classical and quantum cluster expansion methods in terms of the Bell polynomial in mathematics. The virial coefficients of ideal Bose, Fermi, and Gentile gases are calculated from the exact canonical partition function. The virial coefficients of interacting classical and quantum gases are calculated from the canonical partition function by using the expansion of the Bell polynomial, rather than calculated from the grand canonical potential.

  7. Export of Dissolved Methane and Carbon Dioxide with Effluents from Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants.

    PubMed

    Alshboul, Zeyad; Encinas-Fernández, Jorge; Hofmann, Hilmar; Lorke, Andreas

    2016-06-07

    Inland waters play an important role for regional and global scale carbon cycling and are significant sources of the atmospheric greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2). Although most studies considered the input of terrestrially derived organic and inorganic carbon as the main sources for these emissions, anthropogenic sources have rarely been investigated. Municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) could be additional sources of carbon by discharging the treated wastewater into the surrounding aquatic ecosystems. Here we analyze seasonally resolved measurements of dissolved CH4 and CO2 concentrations in effluents and receiving streams at nine WWTPs in Germany. We found that effluent addition significantly altered the physicochemical properties of the streamwater. Downstream of the WWTPs, the concentrations of dissolved CH4 and CO2 were enhanced and the atmospheric fluxes of both gases increased by a factor of 1.2 and 8.6, respectively. The CH4 exported with discharged effluent, however, accounted for only a negligible fraction (0.02%) of the estimated total CH4 emissions during the treatment process. The CH4 concentration in the effluent water was linearly related to the organic load of the wastewater, which can provide an empirical basis for future attempts to add WWTPs inputs to regional-scale models for inland water-carbon fluxes.

  8. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat modelsmore » of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.« less

  9. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  10. Long-term simulations of dissolved oxygen concentrations in Lake Trout lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jabbari, A.; Boegman, L.; MacKay, M.; Hadley, K.; Paterson, A.; Jeziorski, A.; Nelligan, C.; Smol, J. P.

    2016-02-01

    Lake Trout are a rare and valuable natural resource that are threatened by multiple environmental stressors. With the added threat of climate warming, there is growing concern among resource managers that increased thermal stratification will reduce the habitat quality of deep-water Lake Trout lakes through enhanced oxygen depletion. To address this issue, a three-part study is underway, which aims to: analyze sediment cores to understand the past, develop empirical formulae to model the present and apply computational models to forecast the future. This presentation reports on the computational modeling efforts. To this end, a simple dissolved oxygen sub-model has been embedded in the one-dimensional bulk mixed-layer thermodynamic Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM). This model is currently being incorporated into the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), the primary land surface component of Environment Canada's global and regional climate modelling systems. The oxygen model was calibrated and validated by hind-casting temperature and dissolved oxygen profiles from two Lake Trout lakes on the Canadian Shield. These data sets include 5 years of high-frequency (10 s to 10 min) data from Eagle Lake and 30 years of bi-weekly data from Harp Lake. Initial results show temperature and dissolved oxygen was predicted with root mean square error <1.5 °C and <3 mgL-1, respectively. Ongoing work is validating the model, over climate-change relevant timescales, against dissolved oxygen reconstructions from the sediment cores and predicting future deep-water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentrations in Canadian Lake Trout lakes under future climate change scenarios. This model will provide a useful tool for managers to ensure sustainable fishery resources for future generations.

  11. Improved arterial blood oxygenation following intravenous infusion of cold supersaturated dissolved oxygen solution.

    PubMed

    Grady, Daniel J; Gentile, Michael A; Riggs, John H; Cheifetz, Ira M

    2014-01-01

    One of the primary goals of critical care medicine is to support adequate gas exchange without iatrogenic sequelae. An emerging method of delivering supplemental oxygen is intravenously rather than via the traditional inhalation route. The objective of this study was to evaluate the gas-exchange effects of infusing cold intravenous (IV) fluids containing very high partial pressures of dissolved oxygen (>760 mm Hg) in a porcine model. Juvenile swines were anesthetized and mechanically ventilated. Each animal received an infusion of cold (13 °C) Ringer's lactate solution (30 mL/kg/hour), which had been supersaturated with dissolved oxygen gas (39.7 mg/L dissolved oxygen, 992 mm Hg, 30.5 mL/L). Arterial blood gases and physiologic measurements were repeated at 15-minute intervals during a 60-minute IV infusion of the supersaturated dissolved oxygen solution. Each animal served as its own control. Five swines (12.9 ± 0.9 kg) were studied. Following the 60-minute infusion, there were significant increases in PaO2 and SaO2 (P < 0.05) and a significant decrease in PaCO2 (P < 0.05), with a corresponding normalization in arterial blood pH. Additionally, there was a significant decrease in core body temperature (P < 0.05) when compared to the baseline preinfusion state. A cold, supersaturated dissolved oxygen solution may be intravenously administered to improve arterial blood oxygenation and ventilation parameters and induce a mild therapeutic hypothermia in a porcine model.

  12. Summary and Preliminary Interpretation of Tritium and Dissolved Noble Gas Data from Site 300

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Visser, A.; Singleton, M.; Madrid, V.

    2014-01-29

    In October 2013, groundwater samples were collected from 10 wells from Site 300 and analyzed by the Environmental Radiochemistry Laboratory at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Groundwater samples were analyzed for groundwater age tracers: tritium, the helium isotope ratio of dissolved helium and the concentrations of dissolved noble gases (Helium, Neon, Argon, Krypton, and Xenon). A subset of the samples was also analyzed for excess nitrogen due to saturated zone denitrification. The age-dating data were used to evaluate the degree to which groundwater at a particular monitoring well was derived from pre-modern and/or modern sources. More specifically, the analyses canmore » be used to determine whether the recharge age of the groundwater beneath the site pre-dates anthropogenic activities at the site.« less

  13. Hydrothermal gases in a shallow aquifer at Mt. Amiata, Italy: insights from stable isotopes and geochemical modelling.

    PubMed

    Pierotti, Lisa; Cortecci, Gianni; Gherardi, Fabrizio

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the interaction between hydrothermal gases and groundwater in a major aquifer exploited for potable supply in the geothermal-volcanic area of Mt. Amiata, Central Italy. Two springs and two wells located on different sides of the volcanic edifice have been repeatedly sampled over the last 11 years. More than 160 chemical analyses and 10 isotopic analyses of total dissolved carbon (δ(13)C - total dissolved inorganic carbon (TDIC) = -15.9 to -7.8 ‰ vs. V-PDB) and sulphate (δ(34)S-SO4 = -6.9 to 5.1 ‰ vs. V-CDT) have been processed with geochemical modelling techniques. Best-fitting conditions between analytical data and model outputs have been achieved by numerical optimization, allowing for a quantitative description of gas-water-rock interactions occurring in this aquifer. Numerical calculations support a conceptual model that considers water-rock interactions to occur in the volcanic aquifer after inflow of deep-seated gases (CO2(g) and H2S(g)), and total conversion of H2S(g) to SO4, in the absence of mixing with geothermal waters from reservoirs currently exploited for electricity generation.

  14. Separation of polar gases from nonpolar gases

    DOEpatents

    Kulprathipanja, S.

    1986-08-19

    The separation of polar gases from nonpolar gases may be effected by passing a mixture of nonpolar gases over the face of a multicomponent membrane at separation conditions. The multicomponent membrane which is used to effect the separation will comprise a mixture of a glycol plasticizer having a molecular weight of from about 200 to about 600 and an organic polymer cast on a porous support. The porous support is pretreated prior to casting of the mixture thereon by contact with a polyhydric alcohol whereby the pores of the support are altered, thus adding to the increased permeability of the polar gas.

  15. [What you should know of the arterial blood gases during the watch].

    PubMed

    Márquez-González, Horacio; Pámanes-González, Jesús; Márquez-Flores, Horacio; Gómez-Negrete, Alonso; Muñoz-Ramírez, Mireya C; Villa-Romero, Antonio Rafael

    2012-01-01

    Gasometry is the measurement of dissolved gases in the blood, by measuring pH, carbon dioxide pressure (pCO(2)), serum bicarbonate (HCO(3-)), and lactate and serum electrolytes: sodium, potassium and chlorine you can make a diagnosis, etiology and treatment in the critically ill patient. The aim is to provide five steps for the interpretation of blood gases by: 1. The definition of acidemia or acidosis, or alkalemia or alkalosis. 2. Defining the metabolic component or respiratory. 3. To determine the anion gap; levels above 15 ± 2 determine other likely causes of excess anions (methanol, uremia, diabetic ketoacidosis, paraldehyde, ionized, lactic acidosis, ethylene glycol and salicylates. 4. Compensation, using the Winter formula. 5. The delta gap, with the formula for determining intrinsic and metabolic alkalosis. When anion gap is normal, is calculated urinary anion gap; the value is negative if the loss is extrarenal, contrary to the positive result is renal etiology.

  16. Separation of polar gases from nonpolar gases

    DOEpatents

    Kulprathipanja, Santi; Kulkarni, Sudhir S.

    1986-01-01

    Polar gases such as hydrogen sulfide, sulfur dioxide and ammonia may be separated from nonpolar gases such as methane, nitrogen, hydrogen or carbon dioxide by passing a mixture of polar and nonpolar gases over the face of a multicomponent membrane at separation conditions. The multicomponent membrane which is used to effect the separation will comprise a mixture of a glycol plasticizer having a molecular weight of from about 200 to about 600 and an organic polymer cast on a porous support. The use of such membranes as exemplified by polyethylene glycol and silicon rubber composited on polysulfone will permit greater selectivity accompanied by a high flux rate in the separation process.

  17. Separation of polar gases from nonpolar gases

    DOEpatents

    Kulprathipanja, S.; Kulkarni, S.S.

    1986-08-26

    Polar gases such as hydrogen sulfide, sulfur dioxide and ammonia may be separated from nonpolar gases such as methane, nitrogen, hydrogen or carbon dioxide by passing a mixture of polar and nonpolar gases over the face of a multicomponent membrane at separation conditions. The multicomponent membrane which is used to effect the separation will comprise a mixture of a glycol plasticizer having a molecular weight of from about 200 to about 600 and an organic polymer cast on a porous support. The use of such membranes as exemplified by polyethylene glycol and silicon rubber composited on polysulfone will permit greater selectivity accompanied by a high flux rate in the separation process.

  18. Chlorofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and dissolved permanent gases in ground water from selected sites in and near the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, Idaho, 1994-97

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Busenberg, Eurybiades; Plummer, Niel; Bartholomay, Roy C.; Wayland, Julian E.

    1998-01-01

    From July 1994 through May 1997, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Department of Energy, sampled 86 wells completed in the Snake River Plain aquifer at and near the Idaho N ationa1 Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). The wells were sampled for a variety of constituents including one- and two-carbon halocarbons. Concentrations of dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12), trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) and trichlorotrifluororoethane (CFC-113) were determined. The samples for halocarbon analysis were collected in 62-milliliter flame sealed borosilicate glass ampoules in the field. The data will be used to evaluate the ages of ground waters at INEEL. The ages of the ground water will be used to determine recharge rates, residence time, and travel time of water in the Snake River Plain aquifer in and near INEEL. The chromatograms of 139 ground waters are presented showing a large number of halomethanes, haloethanes, and haloethenes present in the ground waters underlying the INEEL. The chromatograms can be used to qualitatively evaluate a large number of contaminants at parts per trillion to parts per billion concentrations. The data can be used to study temporal and spatial distribution of contaminants in the Snake River Plain aquifer. Representative compressed chromatograms for all ground waters sampled in this study are available on two 3.5-inch high density computer disks. The data and the program required to decompress the data can be obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey office at Idaho Falls, Idaho. Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) concentrations were measured in selected wells to determine the feasibility of using this environmental tracer as an age dating tool of ground water. Concentrations of dissolved nitrogen, argon, carbon dioxide, oxygen, and methane were measured in 79 ground waters. Concentrations of dissolved permanent gases are tabulated and will be used to evaluate the temperature of recharge of ground water in and near the INEEL.

  19. Improved Arterial Blood Oxygenation Following Intravenous Infusion of Cold Supersaturated Dissolved Oxygen Solution

    PubMed Central

    Grady, Daniel J; Gentile, Michael A; Riggs, John H; Cheifetz, Ira M

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND One of the primary goals of critical care medicine is to support adequate gas exchange without iatrogenic sequelae. An emerging method of delivering supplemental oxygen is intravenously rather than via the traditional inhalation route. The objective of this study was to evaluate the gas-exchange effects of infusing cold intravenous (IV) fluids containing very high partial pressures of dissolved oxygen (>760 mm Hg) in a porcine model. METHODS Juvenile swines were anesthetized and mechanically ventilated. Each animal received an infusion of cold (13 °C) Ringer’s lactate solution (30 mL/kg/hour), which had been supersaturated with dissolved oxygen gas (39.7 mg/L dissolved oxygen, 992 mm Hg, 30.5 mL/L). Arterial blood gases and physiologic measurements were repeated at 15-minute intervals during a 60-minute IV infusion of the supersaturated dissolved oxygen solution. Each animal served as its own control. RESULTS Five swines (12.9 ± 0.9 kg) were studied. Following the 60-minute infusion, there were significant increases in PaO2 and SaO2 (P < 0.05) and a significant decrease in PaCO2 (P < 0.05), with a corresponding normalization in arterial blood pH. Additionally, there was a significant decrease in core body temperature (P < 0.05) when compared to the baseline preinfusion state. CONCLUSIONS A cold, supersaturated dissolved oxygen solution may be intravenously administered to improve arterial blood oxygenation and ventilation parameters and induce a mild therapeutic hypothermia in a porcine model. PMID:25249764

  20. Residence times of transient riverbank exchanges traced by dissolved gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popp, A. L.; Brennwald, M. S.; Kipfer, R.

    2016-12-01

    Ecosystem functioning of streams heavily depends on nutrient and pollutant fluxes between the stream and the adjacent groundwater. To study potential reactions, we have to estimate the residence time of water exchanges through the streambed and bank sediment. These exchanges within the hyporheic zone have already been thoroughly investigated. However, most previous studies assumed steady-state conditions, despite the fact that the magnitude and timing of riverbank exchanges are highly dynamic. In this study, we estimate residence times of riverbank exchange under transient conditions at a restored river reach in Switzerland. In the stream and in two adjacent observation wells (in 1 m distance to the stream), we continuously analyzed dissolved gas concentrations (O2, N2, O2, Ar, He, Kr, Ne) with a portable mass spectrometer for five months on a 30 m river reach. Additionally, we continuously measured electric conductivity, water tables, and water and air temperatures at all sampling points. At the observation wells we also employed slug tests to estimate the hydraulic conductivity of the investigated stream reach. The obtained time series of tracer data reveals how residence times depend on changes in the hydraulic connectivity of the stream and the adjacent groundwater. Changes in the hydraulic state are induced by (i) different groundwater pumping rates of nearby groundwater abstraction wells, (ii) increased river discharge and (iii) subsequent changes in the hydraulic conductivity of the streambed as a result of unclogging the streambed after floods. Our results contribute to existing knowledge in this research area by identifying non-stationary processes such as the unclogging of the riverbed after flood events. In order to test our hypotheses, our next step is to use our experimental data to constrain a numerical model.

  1. Origin, speciation, and fluxes of trace-element gases at Augustine volcano, Alaska: Insights into magma degassing and fumarolic processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Symonds, Robert B.; Reed, Mark H.; Rose, William I.

    1992-02-01

    Thermochemical modeling predicts that trace elements in the Augustine gas are transported from near-surface magma as simple chloride (NaCl, KCl, FeCl 2, ZnCl 2, PbCl 2, CuCl, SbCl 3, LiCl, MnCl 2, NiCl 2, BiCl, SrCl 2), oxychloride (MoO 2Cl 2), sulfide (AsS), and elemental (Cd) gas species. However, Si, Ca, Al, Mg, Ti, V, and Cr are actually more concentrated in solids, beta-quartz (SiO 2), wollastonite (CaSiO 3), anorthite (CaAl 2Si 2O 8), diopside (CaMgSi 2O 6), sphene (CaTiSiO 5), V 2O 3(c), and Cr 2O 3(c), respectively, than in their most abundant gaseous species, SiF 4, CaCl 2, AlF 2O, MgCl 2 TiCl 4, VOCl 3, and CrO 2Cl 2. These computed solids are not degassing products, but reflect contaminants in our gas condensates or possible problems with our modeling due to "missing" gas species in the thermochemical data base. Using the calculated distribution of gas species and the COSPEC SO 2 fluxes, we have estimated the emission rates for many species (e.g., COS, NaCl, KCl, HBr, AsS, CuCl). Such forecasts could be useful to evaluate the effects of these trace species on atmospheric chemistry. Because of the high volatility of metal chlorides (e.g., FeCl 2, NaCl, KCl, MnCl 2, CuCl), the extremely HCl-rich Augustine volcanic gases are favorable for transporting metals from magma. Thermochemical modeling shows that equilibrium degassing of magma near 870°C can account for the concentrations of Fe, Na, K, Mn, Cu, Ni and part of the Mg in the gases escaping from the dome fumaroles on the 1986 lava dome. These calculations also explain why gases escaping from the lower temperature but highly oxidized moat vents on the 1976 lava dome should transport less Fe, Na, K, Mn and Ni, but more Cu; oxidation may also account for the larger concentrations of Zn and Mo in the moat gases. Nonvolatile elements (e.g., Al, Ca, Ti, Si) in the gas condensates came from eroded rock particles that dissolved in our samples or, for Si, from contamination from the silica sampling tube. Only a

  2. Improved Anvil Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

  3. Electrolytic dissolver

    DOEpatents

    Wheelwright, E.J.; Fox, R.D.

    1975-08-26

    This patent related to an electrolytic dissolver wherein dissolution occurs by solution contact including a vessel of electrically insulative material, a fixed first electrode, a movable second electrode, means for insulating the electrodes from the material to be dissolved while permitting a free flow of electrolyte therebetween, means for passing a direct current between the electrodes and means for circulating electrolyte through the dissolver. (auth)

  4. On The Usage Of Fire Smoke Emissions In An Air Quality Forecasting System To Reduce Particular Matter Forecasting Error

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, H. C.; Pan, L.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; ONeill, S. M.; Ruminski, M.; Shafran, P.; DiMego, G.; Huang, J.; Stajner, I.; Upadhayay, S.; Larkin, N. K.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires contribute to air quality problems not only towards primary emissions of particular matters (PM) but also emitted ozone precursor gases that can lead to elevated ozone concentration. Wildfires are unpredictable and can be ignited by natural causes such as lightning or accidently by human negligent behavior such as live cigarette. Although wildfire impacts on the air quality can be studied by collecting fire information after events, it is extremely difficult to predict future occurrence and behavior of wildfires for real-time air quality forecasts. Because of the time constraints of operational air quality forecasting, assumption of future day's fire behavior often have to be made based on observed fire information in the past. The United States (U.S.) NOAA/NWS built the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) based on the U.S. EPA CMAQ to provide air quality forecast guidance (prediction) publicly. State and local forecasters use the forecast guidance to issue air quality alerts in their area. The NAQFC fine particulates (PM2.5) prediction includes emissions from anthropogenic and biogenic sources, as well as natural sources such as dust storms and fires. The fire emission input to the NAQFC is derived from the NOAA NESDIS HMS fire and smoke detection product and the emission module of the US Forest Service BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework. This study focuses on the error estimation of NAQFC PM2.5 predictions resulting from fire emissions. The comparisons between the NAQFC modeled PM2.5 and the EPA AirNow surface observation show that present operational NAQFC fire emissions assumption can lead to a huge error in PM2.5 prediction as fire emissions are sometimes placed at wrong location and time. This PM2.5 prediction error can be propagated from the fire source in the Northwest U.S. to downstream areas as far as the Southeast U.S. From this study, a new procedure has been identified to minimize the aforementioned error. An additional 24 hours

  5. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  6. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2012-01-01

    Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation. PMID:22615533

  7. Influence of dissolved gases and heat treatments on the oxidative degradation of polyunsaturated fatty acids enriched dairy beverage.

    PubMed

    Giroux, Hélène J; Acteau, Geneviève; Sabik, Hassan; Britten, Michel

    2008-07-23

    The combined effect of dissolved gas composition and heat treatment on the oxidative degradation of a dairy beverage enriched with 2% linseed oil was studied. The dairy beverage was saturated with air, nitrogen, or a nitrogen/hydrogen mixture (4% hydrogen) before pasteurization or sterilization. Saturation with either nitrogen or a nitrogen/hydrogen mixture decreased the dissolved oxygen concentration in dairy beverages (Delta = 7.7 ppm), and the presence of hydrogen significantly reduced the redox potential (Delta = 287 mV). Heat treatments also reduced the oxygen content and redox potential, sterilization being more effective than pasteurization. Both pasteurization and sterilization induced the oxidative degradation of the beverages. On average, the propanal concentration increased by a factor of 2.3 after pasteurization and by a factor of 6.2 after sterilization. However, during storage, sterilized beverages resisted light-induced oxidation better than unheated or pasteurized beverages. Furthermore, saturation with nitrogen or a nitrogen/hydrogen mixture significantly reduced oxidative degradation and provided some protection against color changes during storage.

  8. [Gases in vitreoretinal surgery].

    PubMed

    Janco, L; Vida, R; Bartos, M; Villémová, K; Izák, M

    2012-02-01

    To evaluate the importance and benefits of using gases in vitreoretinal surgery. The gases represent a wide group of substances used in eye surgery for more than 100 years. The role of intraocular gases in vitreoretinal surgery is irreplaceable. Their use is still considered to be the "gold standard". An important step in eye surgery was the introduction of expanding gases--sulfur hexafluoride and perfluorocarbons into routine clinical practice. The most common indications for the use of intraocular gases are: retinal detachment, idiopathic macular hole, complications of vitreoretinal surgery and others. The introduction of intraocular gases into routine clinical practice, along with other modern surgical techniques resulted in significant improvement of postoperative outcomes in a wide range of eye diseases. Understanding the principles of intraocular gases use brings the benefits to the patient and physician as well. Due to their physical and chemical properties they pose far the best and most appropriate variant of intraocular tamponade. Gases also bring some disadvantages, such as difficulties in detailed fundus examination, visual acuity testing, ultrasonographic examination, difficulties in application of intravitreal drugs or reduced possibility of retina laser treatment. The gases significantly change optical system properties of the eye. The use of gases in vitreoretinal surgery has significantly increased success rate of retinal detachment surgery, complicated posterior segment cases, trauma, surgery of the macula and other diseases.

  9. Marine cycling of the climate relevant trace gases carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and carbon disulfide (CS2) in the Peruvian upwelling regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lennartz, Sinikka; von Hobe, Marc; Booge, Dennis; Gonçalves-Araujo, Rafael; Bracher, Astrid; Röttgers, Rüdiger; Ksionzek, Kerstin B.; Koch, Boris P.; Fischer, Tim; Bittig, Henry; Quack, Birgit; Krüger, Kirstin; Marandino, Christa A.

    2017-04-01

    The ocean is a major source for the climate relevant trace gases carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and carbon disulfide (CS2). While the greenhouse gas CS2 quickly oxidizes to OCS in the atmosphere, the atmospheric lifetime of OCS of 2-7 years leads to an accumulation of this gas and makes it the most abundant reduced sulfur compound in the atmosphere. OCS has a counteracting effect on the climate: in the troposphere, it acts as a greenhouse gas causing warming, whereas it also sustains the stratospheric aerosol layer, and thus increases Earth's albedo causing cooling. To better constrain the important oceanic source of these trace gases, the marine cycling needs to be well understood and quantified. For OCS, the production and consumption processes are identified, but photoproduction and light-independent production rates remain to be quantified across different regions. In contrast, the processes that influence the oceanic cycling of CS2 are less well understood. Here we present new data from a cruise to the Peruvian upwelling regime and relate measurements of OCS and CS2 to key parameters, such as dissolved organic sulfur, chromophoric and fluorescent dissolved organic matter. We use a 1D water column model to further constrain their production and degradation rates. A focus is set on the influence of oxygen on the marine cycling of these two gases in oxygen depleted zones in the ocean, which are expected to expand in the future.

  10. Noble gases, stable isotopes, and radiocarbon as tracers of flow in the Dakota aquifer, Colorado and Kansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, J.F.; Davisson, M.L.; Hudson, G.B.; Macfarlane, P.A.

    1998-01-01

    A suite of chemical and isotope tracers (dissolved noble gases, stable isotopes of water, radiocarbon, and CI) have been analyzed along a flow path in the Dakota aquifer system to determine likely recharge sources, ground water residence times, and the extent of mixing between local and intermediate flow systems, presumably caused by large well screens. Three water types were distinguished with the tracers, each having a very different history. Two of the water types were found in south-eastern Colorado where the Dakota is poorly confined. The tracer data suggest that the first group recharged locally during the last few thousand years and the second group was composed of ground water that recharged earlier during a cooler climate, presumably during the last glacial period (LGP) and mixed aged water. The paleotemperature record archived in this groundwater system indicates that south-eastern Colorado was about 5??C cooler during the LGP than during the late Holocene. Similar temperature changes derived from dissolved noble gases in other aquifer systems have been reported earlier for the south-western United States. The third water type was located down gradient of the first two in the confined Dakota in western and central Kansas. Groundwater residence time of this water mass is on the order of 104-105 yrs and its recharge location is near the Colorado and Kansas border down gradient of the other water types. The study shows the importance of using multiple tracers when investigating ground water systems.A suite of chemical and isotope tracers (dissolved noble gases, stable isotopes of water, radiocarbon, and CL) were analyzed along a flow path in the Dakota aquifer system to determine likely recharge sources, ground water residence times, and the extent of mixing between local and intermediate flow systems. Three water types were distinguished with the tracers, each having a very different history. Two of the water types were located in south-eastern Colorado

  11. Transport of Asian Aerosols and Trace Gases to North America During the INTEX-B Field Campaign: A Regional Chemical Transport Model Analysis.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikary, B.; Kulkarni, S.; Carmichael, G. R.; Tang, Y.; Dallura, A.; Mena, M.; Streets, D.; Zhang, Q.

    2007-12-01

    The Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B (INTEX-B) was conducted over the Pacific Ocean during the 2006 North American spring season. One of the scientific objectives of the INTEX-B field campaign was to quantify the transport and chemical evolution/aging of Asian air pollution into North America. The field campaign deployed multiple experimental platforms such as satellites, aircrafts and surface measurements stations to study the pollution outflow to North America. Three dimensional chemical transport models were used to provide chemical weather forecasts and assist in flight planning during the mission. The Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM) is a regional chemical transport model developed at the University of Iowa. The STEM model was involved in providing chemical weather forecasts and assist in flight planning during the INTEX-B intensive field campaign. In this study we will report the STEM model performance of aerosols and trace gases in its ability to capture the pollutant plume with experimental observations obtained from the field campaign. The study will then relate the emissions of trace gases and aerosols to atmospheric composition, sources and sinks using the newly developed emissions inventory for the INTEX-B field campaign.

  12. Bacterial Degradation of Phosphonates Bound to High-Molecular-Weight Dissolved Organic Matter Produces Methane and Other Hydrocarbons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sosa, O.; Ferron Smith, S.; Karl, D. M.; DeLong, E.; Repeta, D.

    2016-02-01

    The biological degradation of dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays important roles in the carbon cycle and energy balance of the ocean. Yet, the biochemical pathways that drive DOM turnover remain to be fully characterized. In this study, we tested the ability of two open ocean bacterial isolates (a Pseudomonas stutzeri strain (Gammaproteobacteria) and a Sulfitobacter isolate (Alphaproteobacteria)) to degrade DOM phosphonates. Each isolate encoded a complete phosphonate degradation pathway in its genome, and each was able to degrade simple alkyl-phosphonates like methyl phosphonate, releasing methane (or other short chain hydrocarbon gases) as a result. We found that cultures incubated in the presence of HMW DOM polysaccharides also produced methane and other trace gases under aerobic conditions. To demonstrate that phosphonates were the source of these gases, we constructed a P. stutzeri mutant disabled in the phosphonate degradation pathway. Unlike the wild type, the mutant strain was deficient in the production of methane and other gases from HMW DOM-associated phosphonates. These observations support the hypothesis that DOM-bound methyl phosphonates may be a significant source of methane in the water column, and that bacterial degradation of these compounds likely contribute to the subsurface methane maxima observed throughout the world's oceans.

  13. Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Rienecker, Michele M.; Suarez, Max J.; Vikhliaev, Yury; Zhao, Bin; Marshak, Jelena; Vernieres, Guillaume; Schubert, Siegfried D.

    2013-01-01

    A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's (GMAO's) GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 percent improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the sub-polar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

  14. Forecasting Skill

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  15. Fertiliser management effects on dissolved inorganic nitrogen in runoff from Australian sugarcane farms.

    PubMed

    Fraser, Grant; Rohde, Ken; Silburn, Mark

    2017-08-01

    Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) movement from Australian sugarcane farms is believed to be a major cause of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks which have reduced the Great Barrier Reef coral cover by ~21% (1985-2012). We develop a daily model of DIN concentration in runoff based on >200 field monitored runoff events. Runoff DIN concentrations were related to nitrogen fertiliser application rates and decreased after application with time and cumulative rainfall. Runoff after liquid fertiliser applications had higher initial DIN concentrations, though these concentrations diminished more rapidly in comparison to granular fertiliser applications. The model was validated using an independent field dataset and provided reasonable estimates of runoff DIN concentrations based on a number of modelling efficiency score results. The runoff DIN concentration model was combined with a water balance cropping model to investigate temporal aspects of sugarcane fertiliser management. Nitrogen fertiliser application in December (start of wet season) had the highest risk of DIN movement, and this was further exacerbated in years with a climate forecast for 'wet' seasonal conditions. The potential utility of a climate forecasting system to predict forthcoming wet months and hence DIN loss risk is demonstrated. Earlier fertiliser application or reducing fertiliser application rates in seasons with a wet climate forecast may markedly reduce runoff DIN loads; however, it is recommended that these findings be tested at a broader scale.

  16. EDITORIAL: Cold Quantum GasesEditorial: Cold Quantum Gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vassen, W.; Hemmerich, A.; Arimondo, E.

    2003-04-01

    This Special Issue of Journal of Optics B: Quantum and Semiclassical Optics brings together the contributions of various researchers working on theoretical and experimental aspects of cold quantum gases. Different aspects of atom optics, matter wave interferometry, laser manipulation of atoms and molecules, and production of very cold and degenerate gases are presented. The variety of subjects demonstrates the steadily expanding role associated with this research area. The topics discussed in this issue, extending from basic physics to applications of atom optics and of cold atomic samples, include: bulletBose--Einstein condensation bulletFermi degenerate gases bulletCharacterization and manipulation of quantum gases bulletCoherent and nonlinear cold matter wave optics bulletNew schemes for laser cooling bulletCoherent cold molecular gases bulletUltra-precise atomic clocks bulletApplications of cold quantum gases to metrology and spectroscopy bulletApplications of cold quantum gases to quantum computing bulletNanoprobes and nanolithography. This special issue is published in connection with the 7th International Workshop on Atom Optics and Interferometry, held in Lunteren, The Netherlands, from 28 September to 2 October 2002. This was the last in a series of Workshops organized with the support of the European Community that have greatly contributed to progress in this area. The scientific part of the Workshop was managed by A Hemmerich, W Hogervorst, W Vassen and J T M Walraven, with input from members of the International Programme Committee who are listed below. The practical aspects of the organization were ably handled by Petra de Gijsel from the Vrije Universiteit in Amsterdam. The Workshop was funded by the European Science Foundation (programme BEC2000+), the European Networks 'Cold Quantum Gases (CQG)', coordinated by E Arimondo, and 'Cold Atoms and Ultraprecise Atomic Clocks (CAUAC)', coordinated by J Henningsen, by the German Physical Society (DFG), by

  17. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  18. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  19. Development of a method for comprehensive water quality forecasting and its application in Miyun reservoir of Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Lei; Zou, Zhihong; Shan, Wei

    2017-06-01

    Water quality forecasting is an essential part of water resource management. Spatiotemporal variations of water quality and their inherent constraints make it very complex. This study explored a data-based method for short-term water quality forecasting. Prediction of water quality indicators including dissolved oxygen, chemical oxygen demand by KMnO 4 and ammonia nitrogen using support vector machine was taken as inputs of the particle swarm algorithm based optimal wavelet neural network to forecast the whole status index of water quality. Gubeikou monitoring section of Miyun reservoir in Beijing, China was taken as the study case to examine effectiveness of this approach. The experiment results also revealed that the proposed model has advantages of stability and time reduction in comparison with other data-driven models including traditional BP neural network model, wavelet neural network model and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model. It can be used as an effective approach to perform short-term comprehensive water quality prediction. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Characterizing Gas Transport in Wetland Soil-Root Systems with Dissolved Gas Tracer Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, M. C.; Jaffe, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    Soil fluxes of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and other biogenic gases depend on coupling between microbial and physiochemical processes within soil media. The importance of plant-mediated transport in wetland CH4 emissions is well known, but a generalized understanding of gas transfer between pore water and root aerenchyma, and how this process competes with biogeochemical production/consumption of gases beyond CH4, is incomplete [1]. A lack of experimental approaches to characterize transport processes in complex soil-water-plant systems at field scale has limited efforts to close this knowledge gap. In this presentation we describe dissolved gas tracer techniques to tease apart effects of transport from simultaneous biochemical reaction on trace gas dynamics in soils. We discuss a push-pull test with helium and sulfur hexafluoride gas tracers to quantify in situ root-mediated gas transfer kinetics in a wetland soil [2]. A Damköhler number analysis is introduced to interpret the results and evaluate the balance between biochemical reaction and root-driven gas transfer in controlling the fate of CH4 and N2O in vegetated wetland soils. We conclude with a brief discussion of other problems in soil gas dynamics that can be addressed with gas tracer approaches. [1] Blagodatsky and Smith 2012. Soil physics meets soil biology: Towards better mechanistic prediction of greenhouse gas emissions from soil. Soil Biology and Biochemistry 47, 78-92. [2] Reid et al. 2015. Dissolved gas dynamics in wetland soils: Root-mediated gas transfer kinetics determind via push-pull tracer tests. Water Resour. Res. 51, doi:10.1002/2014WR016803.

  1. Stochastic demographic forecasting.

    PubMed

    Lee, R D

    1992-11-01

    "This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions. The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary.... Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented." excerpt

  2. Recent Experimental Advances to Determine (noble) Gases in Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kipfer, R.; Brennwald, M. S.; Huxol, S.; Mächler, L.; Maden, C.; Vogel, N.; Tomonaga, Y.

    2013-12-01

    In aquatic systems noble gases, radon, and bio-geochemically conservative transient trace gases (SF6, CFCs) are frequently applied to determine water residence times and to reconstruct past environmental and climatic conditions. Recent experimental breakthroughs now enable ● to apply the well-established concepts of terrestrial noble gas geochemistry in waters to the minute water amounts stored in sediment pore space and in fluid inclusions (A), ● to determine gas exchange processes on the bio-geochemical relevant time scales of minutes - hours (B), and ● to separate diffusive and advective gas transport in soil air (C). A. Noble-gas analysis in water samples (< 1 g) facilitates determining the solute transport in the pore space and identifying the origin of bio- and geogenic fluids in (un) consolidated sediments [1]. Advanced techniques that combine crushing and sieving speleothem samples in ultra-high-vacuum to a specific grain size allow to separate air and water-bearing fluid inclusions and thus enables noble-gas-based reconstruction of environmental conditions from water masses as small as 1mg [2]. B. The coupling of noble gas analysis with approaches of gas chromatography permits combined analysis of noble gases and other gases species (e.g., SF6, CFCs, O2, N2) from a single water sample. The new method substantially improves ground water dating by SF6 and CFCs as excess air is quantified from the same sample and hence can adequately be corrected for [3]. Portable membrane-inlet mass spectrometers enable the quasi-continuous and real-time analysis of noble gases and other dissolved gases directly in the field, allowing, for instance, quantification of O2 turnover rates on small time scales [4]. C. New technical developments perfect 222Rn analysis in water by the synchronous the determination of the short-lived 220Rn. The combined 220,222Rn analysis sheds light on the emanation behaviour of radon by identifying soil water content to be the crucial

  3. Trends in source gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ehhalt, D. H.; Fraser, P. J.; Albritton, D.; Cicerone, R. J.; Khalil, M. A. K.; Legrand, M.; Makide, Y.; Rowland, F. S.; Steele, L. P.; Zander, R.

    1989-01-01

    Source gases are defined as those gases that, by their breakdown, introduce into the stratosphere halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen compounds that are important in stratospheric ozone destruction. Given here is an update of the existing concentration time series for chlorocarbons, nitrous oxide, and methane. Also reviewed is information on halogen containing species and the use of these data for establishing trends. Also reviewed is evidence on trends in trace gases that influence tropospheric chemistry and thus the tropospheric lifetimes of source gases, such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, or nitrogen oxides. Much of the information is given in tabular form.

  4. Marine Point Forecasts

    Science.gov Websites

    with smartphones and other mobile platforms new Marine Point Forecasts are a forecast for a specific maps providing zone/point marine forecasts Mobile, AL Eureka, CA San Francisco, CA Los Angeles, CA San

  5. Dissolver vessel bottom assembly

    DOEpatents

    Kilian, Douglas C.

    1976-01-01

    An improved bottom assembly is provided for a nuclear reactor fuel reprocessing dissolver vessel wherein fuel elements are dissolved as the initial step in recovering fissile material from spent fuel rods. A shock-absorbing crash plate with a convex upper surface is disposed at the bottom of the dissolver vessel so as to provide an annular space between the crash plate and the dissolver vessel wall. A sparging ring is disposed within the annular space to enable a fluid discharged from the sparging ring to agitate the solids which deposit on the bottom of the dissolver vessel and accumulate in the annular space. An inlet tangential to the annular space permits a fluid pumped into the annular space through the inlet to flush these solids from the dissolver vessel through tangential outlets oppositely facing the inlet. The sparging ring is protected against damage from the impact of fuel elements being charged to the dissolver vessel by making the crash plate of such a diameter that the width of the annular space between the crash plate and the vessel wall is less than the diameter of the fuel elements.

  6. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  7. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  8. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  9. [Characterization of severe acute occupational poisoning accidents related to irritating gases in China between 1989 and 2003].

    PubMed

    Du, Xie-Yi; Zhang, Min; Wang, Huan-Qiang; Li, Tao; Wang, Hong-Fei; Chen, Shu-Yang; Zhang, Shuang; Qin, Jian; Ji, Li-Ying

    2006-12-01

    To analyze severe acute occupational poisoning accidents related to irritating gases reported in China between 1989 and 2003, and to study the characteristics of severe acute occupational poisoning accidents and provide scientific evidences for prevention and control strategies. The data from the national occupational poisoning case reporting system were analyzed with descriptive methods. (1) There were 92 severe acute occupational poisoning accidents related to asphyxiating gases during 15 years, which showed that there were 14.5 accidents occurred each year. Forty types of chemicals were reported to cause poisoning accidents directly. On average, there were 14.5 persons poisoned and 0.8 persons died of poisoning in each event. The number of death of poisoning reached 7 in most of the severe accidents. Chlorine was the main irritating gas resulting in poisoning accidents according to the number of accidents, cases and death. (1) The severe acute occupational poisoning related to irritating gases are more dangerous than others because of it is involved in more cases in each accident. (2) The accidents have concentricity in the certain types of chemicals, industries and jobs, and should be focused on control. (3) It is important to develop the program about early warning and forecast and the first aid.

  10. Air Quality Modeling and Forecasting over the United States Using WRF-Chem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boxe, C.; Hafsa, U.; Blue, S.; Emmanuel, S.; Griffith, E.; Moore, J.; Tam, J.; Khan, I.; Cai, Z.; Bocolod, B.; Zhao, J.; Ahsan, S.; Gurung, D.; Tang, N.; Bartholomew, J.; Rafi, R.; Caltenco, K.; Rivas, M.; Ditta, H.; Alawlaqi, H.; Rowley, N.; Khatim, F.; Ketema, N.; Strothers, J.; Diallo, I.; Owens, C.; Radosavljevic, J.; Austin, S. A.; Johnson, L. P.; Zavala-Gutierrez, R.; Breary, N.; Saint-Hilaire, D.; Skeete, D.; Stock, J.; Salako, O.

    2016-12-01

    WRF-Chem is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry. The model simulates the emission, transport, mixing, and chemical transformation of trace gases and aerosols simultaneously with the meteorology. The model is used for investigation of regional-scale air quality, field program analysis, and cloud-scale interactions between clouds and chemistry. The development of WRF-Chem is a collaborative effort among the community led by NOAA/ESRL scientists. The Official WRF-Chem web page is located at the NOAA web site. Our model development is closely linked with both NOAA/ESRL and DOE/PNNL efforts. Description of PNNL WRF-Chem model development is located at the PNNL web site as well as the PNNL Aerosol Modeling Testbed. High school and undergraduate students, representative of academic institutions throughout USA's Tri-State Area (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut), set up WRF-Chem on CUNY CSI's High Performance Computing Center. Students learned the back-end coding that governs WRF-Chems structure and the front-end coding that displays visually specified weather simulations and forecasts. Students also investigated the impact, to select baseline simulations/forecasts, due to the reaction, NO2 + OH + M → HOONO + M (k = 9.2 × 10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1, Mollner et al. 2010). The reaction of OH and NO2 to form gaseous nitric acid (HONO2) is among the most influential and in atmospheric chemistry. Till a few years prior, its rate coefficient remained poorly determined under tropospheric conditions because of difficulties in making laboratory measurements at 760 torr. These activities fosters student coding competencies and deep insights into weather forecast and air quality.

  11. Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

    2010-05-01

    Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive

  12. 46 CFR 194.15-17 - Compressed gases other than inert gases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Compressed gases other than inert gases. 194.15-17 Section 194.15-17 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VESSELS HANDLING, USE, AND CONTROL OF EXPLOSIVES AND OTHER HAZARDOUS MATERIALS Chemistry Laboratory and...

  13. 46 CFR 194.15-17 - Compressed gases other than inert gases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Compressed gases other than inert gases. 194.15-17 Section 194.15-17 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OCEANOGRAPHIC RESEARCH VESSELS HANDLING, USE, AND CONTROL OF EXPLOSIVES AND OTHER HAZARDOUS MATERIALS Chemistry Laboratory and...

  14. Distribution of dissolved green-house gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) in Lakes Edward and George: Results from the first field cruise of the HIPE project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borges, Alberto V.; Morana, Cédric D. T.; Lambert, Thibault; Okello, William; Bouillon, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Inland waters (streams, rivers, lakes, reservoirs) are quantitatively important components of the global budgets of atmospheric emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) (CO2, CH4, N2O). Available data indicate that a very large fraction of CO2 and CH4 emissions from rivers and reservoirs occurs at tropical latitudes. Data on GHGs at tropical latitudes from lakes however are much more scarse, and the relative importance of emissions, in particular in Africa, remains to be determined. Large tropical lakes are net autotrophic (hence potentially sinks for atmospheric CO2) due generally low dissolved organic carbon concentrations, seasonally near constant light and temperature conditions, and generally deep water columns favourable for export of organic matter to depth. This sharply contrasts with their much better documented temperate and boreal counterparts, usually considered as CO2 sources to the atmosphere sustained by net heterotrophy. Here, we report a data-set of dissolved CO2, CH4, N2O obtained in October 2016 in Lakes Edward and George and adjacent streams and crater lakes in the frame of Belgian Science Policy (BELSPO) HIPE (Human impacts on ecosystem health and resources of Lake Edward, http://www.co2.ulg.ac.be/hipe/) project. Lake George and part of Lake Edward were sinks for atmospheric CO2 and N2O due to high primary production and denitrification in sediments, respectively, and modest sources of CH4 to the atmosphere. Sampled rivers and streams were oversaturated in CO2 and CH4 and close to atmospheric equilibrium with regards to N2O. Spatial variations within rivers and streams were related to elevation and vegetation characteristics on the catchments (savannah versus forest). Levels of CO2, CH4, and N2O were within the range of those we reported in other African rivers. Crater lakes acted as sinks for atmospheric CO2 and N2O but were extremely over-saturated in CH4, due to intense primary production sustained by cyanobacteria. These CH4 levels

  15. Forecast Verification: Identification of small changes in weather forecasting skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weatherhead, E. C.; Jensen, T. L.

    2017-12-01

    Global and regonal weather forecasts have improved over the past seven decades most often because of small, incrmental improvements. The identificaiton and verification of forecast improvement due to proposed small changes in forecasting can be expensive and, if not carried out efficiently, can slow progress in forecasting development. This presentation will look at the skill of commonly used verification techniques and show how the ability to detect improvements can depend on the magnitude of the improvement, the number of runs used to test the improvement, the location on the Earth and the statistical techniques used. For continuous variables, such as temperture, wind and humidity, the skill of a forecast can be directly compared using a pair-wise statistical test that accommodates the natural autocorrelation and magnitude of variability. For discrete variables, such as tornado outbreaks, or icing events, the challenges is to reduce the false alarm rate while improving the rate of correctly identifying th discrete event. For both continuus and discrete verification results, proper statistical approaches can reduce the number of runs needed to identify a small improvement in forecasting skill. Verification within the Next Generation Global Prediction System is an important component to the many small decisions needed to make stat-of-the-art improvements to weather forecasting capabilities. The comparison of multiple skill scores with often conflicting results requires not only appropriate testing, but also scientific judgment to assure that the choices are appropriate not only for improvements in today's forecasting capabilities, but allow improvements that will come in the future.

  16. An overview of health forecasting.

    PubMed

    Soyiri, Ireneous N; Reidpath, Daniel D

    2013-01-01

    Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specific health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no defined health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: definitions, principles of health forecasting, and the properties of health data, which influence the choices of health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.

  17. Trace Gases and Aerosols Simulated Over the Indian Domain: Evaluation of the Model Wrf-Chem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michael, M.; Yadav, A.; Tripathi, S. N.; Venkataraman, C.; Kanawade, V. P.

    2012-12-01

    As the anthropogenic emissions from the Asian countries contribute substantially to the global aerosol loading, the study of the distribution of trace gases and aerosols over this region has received increasing attention in recent years. In the present work, the aerosol properties over the Indian domain during the pre-monsoon season has been addressed. The "online" meteorological and chemical transport Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model has been implemented over Indian subcontinent for three consecutive summers in 2008, 2009 and 2010.The initial and boundary conditions are obtained from NCAR reanalysis data. The global emission inventories (REanalysis of the TROpospheric chemical composition (RETRO) and Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR)) have been used and are projected for the period of study using the method provided in Ohara et al. (2007). The emission rates of sulfur dioxide, black carbon, organic carbon and PM2.5 available in the global inventory are replaced with the high resolution emission inventory developed over India for the present study. The model simulates meteorological parameters, trace gases and particulate matter. Simulated mixing ratios of trace gases (Ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and SO2) are compared with ground based as well as satellite observations over India with specific focus on Indo-Gangetic Plain. Simulated aerosol optical depth are in good agreement with those observed by Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The vertical profiles of extinction coefficient have been compared with the Micro Pulse Lidar Network (MPLnet) data. The simulated mass concentration of BC shows very good agreement with those observed at a few ground stations. The vertical profiles of BC have also been compared with aircraft observations carried out during summer of 2008 and 2009, resulting in good agreement. This study shows that WRF-Chem model captures many important features of the observations and

  18. Online dissolved methane and total dissolved sulfide measurement in sewers.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yiwen; Sharma, Keshab R; Fluggen, Markus; O'Halloran, Kelly; Murthy, Sudhir; Yuan, Zhiguo

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies using short-term manual sampling of sewage followed by off-line laboratory gas chromatography (GC) measurement have shown that a substantial amount of dissolved methane is produced in sewer systems. However, only limited data has been acquired to date due to the low frequency and short span of this method, which cannot capture the dynamic variations of in-sewer dissolved methane concentrations. In this study, a newly developed online measuring device was used to monitor dissolved methane concentrations at the end of a rising main sewer network, over two periods of three weeks each, in summer and early winter, respectively. This device uses an online gas-phase methane sensor to measure methane under equilibrium conditions after being stripped from the sewage. The data are then converted to liquid-phase methane concentrations according to Henry's Law. The detection limit and range are suitable for sewer application and can be adjusted by varying the ratio of liquid-to-gas phase volume settings. The measurement presented good linearity (R² > 0.95) during field application, when compared to off-line measurements. The overall data set showed a wide variation in dissolved methane concentration of 5-15 mg/L in summer and 3.5-12 mg/L in winter, resulting in a significant average daily production of 24.6 and 19.0 kg-CH₄/d, respectively, from the network with a daily average sewage flow of 2840 m³/day. The dissolved methane concentration demonstrated a clear diurnal pattern coinciding with flow and sulfide fluctuation, implying a relationship with the wastewater hydraulic retention time (HRT). The total dissolved sulfide (TDS) concentration in sewers can be determined simultaneously with the same principle.

  19. Greenhouse gases emissions in rivers of the Tibetan Plateau.

    PubMed

    Qu, Bin; Aho, Kelly Sue; Li, Chaoliu; Kang, Shichang; Sillanpää, Mika; Yan, Fangping; Raymond, Peter A

    2017-11-29

    Greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions from streams are important to regional biogeochemical budgets. This study is one of the first to incorporate stream GHGs (CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O) concentrations and emissions in rivers of the Tibetan Plateau. With one-time sampling from 32 sites in rivers of the plateau, we found that most of the rivers were supersaturated with CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O during the study period. Medians of partial pressures of CO 2 (pCO 2 ), pCH 4 and pN 2 O were presented 864 μatm, 6.3 μatm, and 0.25 μatm respectively. Based on a scaling model of the flux of gas, the calculated fluxes of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O (3,452 mg-C m 2 d -1 , 26.7 mg-C m 2 d -1 and 0.18 mg-N m 2 d -1 , respectively) in rivers of the Tibetan Plateau were found comparable with most other rivers in the world; and it was revealed that the evasion rates of CO 2 and CH 4 in tributaries of the rivers of the plateau were higher than those in the mainstream despite its high altitude. Furthermore, concentrations of GHGs in the studied rivers were related to dissolved carbon and nitrogen, indicating that riverine dissolved components could be used to scale GHGs envision in rivers of the Tibetan Plateau.

  20. Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error.

    PubMed

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2012-03-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  1. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  2. Intermediate-term forecasting of aftershocks from an early aftershock sequence: Bayesian and ensemble forecasting approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omi, Takahiro; Ogata, Yosihiko; Hirata, Yoshito; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-04-01

    Because aftershock occurrences can cause significant seismic risks for a considerable time after the main shock, prospective forecasting of the intermediate-term aftershock activity as soon as possible is important. The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model with the maximum likelihood estimate effectively reproduces general aftershock activity including secondary or higher-order aftershocks and can be employed for the forecasting. However, because we cannot always expect the accurate parameter estimation from incomplete early aftershock data where many events are missing, such forecasting using only a single estimated parameter set (plug-in forecasting) can frequently perform poorly. Therefore, we here propose Bayesian forecasting that combines the forecasts by the ETAS model with various probable parameter sets given the data. By conducting forecasting tests of 1 month period aftershocks based on the first 1 day data after the main shock as an example of the early intermediate-term forecasting, we show that the Bayesian forecasting performs better than the plug-in forecasting on average in terms of the log-likelihood score. Furthermore, to improve forecasting of large aftershocks, we apply a nonparametric (NP) model using magnitude data during the learning period and compare its forecasting performance with that of the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) formula. We show that the NP forecast performs better than the G-R formula in some cases but worse in other cases. Therefore, robust forecasting can be obtained by employing an ensemble forecast that combines the two complementary forecasts. Our proposed method is useful for a stable unbiased intermediate-term assessment of aftershock probabilities.

  3. Socioeconomic Forecasting

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2012-05-01

    The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI : PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI P...

  4. Socioeconomic forecasting.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2012-05-01

    The role of the REMI Policy Insight+ model in socioeconomic forecasting and economic impact analysis of transportation projects was assessed. The REMI : PI+ model is consistent with the state of the practice in forecasting and impact analysis. REMI P...

  5. CO.sub.2 separation from low-temperature flue gases

    DOEpatents

    Dilmore, Robert; Allen, Douglas; Soong, Yee; Hedges, Sheila

    2010-11-30

    Two methods are provide for the separation of carbon dioxide from the flue gases. The first method utilizes a phase-separating moiety dissolved in an aqueous solution of a basic moiety to capture carbon dioxide. The second method utilizes a phase-separating moiety as a suspended solid in an aqueous solution of a basic moiety to capture carbon dioxide. The first method takes advantage of the surface-independent nature of the CO.sub.2 absorption reactions in a homogeneous aqueous system. The second method also provides permanent sequestration of the carbon dioxide. Both methods incorporate the kinetic rate enhancements of amine-based scrubbing while eliminating the need to heat the entire amine solution (80% water) in order to regenerate and release CO.sub.2. Both methods also take advantage of the low-regeneration temperatures of CO.sub.2-bearing mineral systems such as Na.sub.2CO.sub.3/NaHCO.sub.3 and K.sub.2CO.sub.3/KHCO.sub.3.

  6. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    PubMed Central

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  7. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    PubMed

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  8. Development of a pre-concentration system and auto-analyzer for dissolved methane, ethane, propane, and butane concentration measurements with a GC-FID

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chepigin, A.; Leonte, M.; Colombo, F.; Kessler, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Dissolved methane, ethane, propane, and butane concentrations in natural waters are traditionally measured using a headspace equilibration technique and gas chromatograph with flame ionization detector (GC-FID). While a relatively simple technique, headspace equilibration suffers from slow equilibration times and loss of sensitivity due to concentration dilution with the pure gas headspace. Here we present a newly developed pre-concentration system and auto-analyzer for use with a GC-FID. This system decreases the time required for each analysis by eliminating the headspace equilibration time, increases the sensitivity and precision with a rapid pre-concentration step, and minimized operator time with an autoanalyzer. In this method, samples are collected from Niskin bottles in newly developed 1 L plastic sample bags rather than glass vials. Immediately following sample collection, the sample bags are placed in an incubator and individually connected to a multiport sampling valve. Water is pumped automatically from the desired sample bag through a small (6.5 mL) Liqui-Cel® membrane contactor where the dissolved gas is vacuum extracted and directly flushed into the GC sample loop. The gases of interest are preferentially extracted with the Liqui-Cel and thus a natural pre-concentration effect is obtained. Daily method calibration is achieved in the field with a five-point calibration curve that is created by analyzing gas standard-spiked water stored in 5 L gas-impermeable bags. Our system has been shown to substantially pre-concentrate the dissolved gases of interest and produce a highly linear response of peak areas to dissolved gas concentration. The system retains the high accuracy, precision, and wide range of measurable concentrations of the headspace equilibration method while simultaneously increasing the sensitivity due to the pre-concentration step. The time and labor involved in the headspace equilibration method is eliminated and replaced with the

  9. Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.; Barthélemy, A.; Chevallier, M.; Cullather, R.; Fučkar, N.; Massonnet, F.; Posey, P.; Wang, W.; Zhang, J.; Ardilouze, C.; Bitz, C. M.; Vernieres, G.; Wallcraft, A.; Wang, M.

    2017-08-01

    Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or forecast post-processing (bias correction) techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored.

  10. Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum

    2017-04-01

    ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts), in collaboration with the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) and GLOFAS (GLObal Flood Awareness System) teams, has developed a new operational system that post-processes grid box rainfall forecasts from its ensemble forecasting system to provide global probabilistic point-rainfall predictions. The project attains a higher forecasting skill by applying an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals. In turn this approach facilitates identification of cases in which very localized extreme totals are much more likely. This approach aims also to improve the rainfall input required in different hydro-meteorological applications. Flash flood forecasting, in particular in urban areas, is a good example. In flash flood scenarios precipitation is typically characterised by high spatial variability and response times are short. In this case, to move beyond radar based now casting, the classical approach has been to use very high resolution hydro-meteorological models. Of course these models are valuable but they can represent only very limited areas, may not be spatially accurate and may give reasonable results only for limited lead times. On the other hand, our method aims to use a very cost-effective approach to downscale global rainfall forecasts to a point scale. It needs only rainfall totals from standard global reporting stations and forecasts over a relatively short period to train it, and it can give good results even up to day 5. For these reasons we believe that this approach better satisfies user needs around the world. This presentation aims to describe two phases of the project: The first phase, already completed, is the implementation of this new system to provide 6 and 12 hourly point-rainfall accumulation probabilities. To do this we use a limited number of physically relevant global model parameters (i

  11. IUPAC-NIST Solubility Data Series 70. The Solubility of Gases in Glassy Polymers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paterson, Russell; Yampol'Skii, Yuri P.; Fogg, Peter G. T.; Bokarev, Alexandre; Bondar, Valerii; Ilinich, Oleg; Shishatskii, Sergey

    1999-09-01

    Solubility of gases in polymers is an important property of polymeric materials relevant to many practical applications. Sorption of small molecules in polymers is a fundamental concern in such areas as food packaging, beverage storage, and polymer processing. However, by far the main interest in the solubility of gases in polymers, and especially in glassy polymers, is related to development of novel advanced materials for gas separation membranes. This is because the concentration gradient of a dissolved gas is the driving force of membrane processes. Development of these novel separation methods resulted in a rapid accumulation, in the recent literature, of thermodynamic data related to the solubility of gases in polymers at different temperatures and pressures. Polymers can be regarded as special cases of media intermediate between liquids and solids. As a consequence, modeling of gas sorption in polymers is very difficult and presents a permanent challenge to theoreticians and experimenters. The collection and critical evaluation of solubility data for various gas-polymer systems is relevant to both practical aspects of polymer applications and to fundamental studies of polymer behavior. This volume of the IUPAC-NIST Solubility Data Series summarizes the compilations and critical evaluations of the data on solubility of gases in glassy polymers. It is implied in this edition that "gases" are the components that are either permanent gases (supercitical fluids) or have saturated vapor pressure more than 1 atm at ambient conditions (298 K). The polymeric components of compilations and critical evaluations are primarily high molecular mass, amorphous, linear (noncross-linked) compounds that have the glass transition temperatures above ambient temperature. The data for each gas-polymer system have been evaluated, if the results of at least three independent and reliable studies have been reported. Where the data of sufficient accuracy and reliability are available

  12. Medium-range fire weather forecasts

    Treesearch

    J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

    1991-01-01

    The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

  13. WPC Maximum Heat Index Forecasts

    Science.gov Websites

    Forecasts for Western US CLICK ON MAPS FOR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS FROM SUN MAY 27 2018 02 CLICK to view SAT JUN 02 forecast SUN JUN 03 CLICK to view SUN JUN 03 forecast SUN JUN 03 CLICK to view SUN JUN 03 forecast SUN JUN 03 CLICK to view SUN JUN 03 forecast SUN JUN 03 CLICK to view SUN JUN

  14. Simultaneous treatment of SO2 containing stack gases and waste water

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poradek, J. C.; Collins, D. D. (Inventor)

    1978-01-01

    A process for simultaneously removing sulfur dioxide from stack gases and the like and purifying waste water such as derived from domestic sewage is described. A portion of the gas stream and a portion of the waste water, the latter containing dissolved iron and having an acidic pH, are contacted in a closed loop gas-liquid scrubbing zone to effect absorption of the sulfur dioxide into the waste water. A second portion of the gas stream and a second portion of the waste water are controlled in an open loop gas-liquid scrubbing zone. The second portion of the waste water contains a lesser amount of iron than the first portion of the waste water. Contacting in the openloop scrubbing zone is sufficient to acidify the waste water which is then treated to remove solids originally present.

  15. Prediction of dissolved oxygen in the Mediterranean Sea along Gaza, Palestine - an artificial neural network approach.

    PubMed

    Zaqoot, Hossam Adel; Ansari, Abdul Khalique; Unar, Mukhtiar Ali; Khan, Shaukat Hyat

    2009-01-01

    Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are flexible tools which are being used increasingly to predict and forecast water resources variables. The human activities in areas surrounding enclosed and semi-enclosed seas such as the Mediterranean Sea always produce in the long term a strong environmental impact in the form of coastal and marine degradation. The presence of dissolved oxygen is essential for the survival of most organisms in the water bodies. This paper is concerned with the use of ANNs - Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function neural networks for predicting the next fortnight's dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Mediterranean Sea water along Gaza. MLP and Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural networks are trained and developed with reference to five important oceanographic variables including water temperature, wind velocity, turbidity, pH and conductivity. These variables are considered as inputs of the network. The data sets used in this study consist of four years and collected from nine locations along Gaza coast. The network performance has been tested with different data sets and the results show satisfactory performance. Prediction results prove that neural network approach has good adaptability and extensive applicability for modelling the dissolved oxygen in the Mediterranean Sea along Gaza. We hope that the established model will help in assisting the local authorities in developing plans and policies to reduce the pollution along Gaza coastal waters to acceptable levels.

  16. An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

    2018-04-01

    Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

  17. A membrane inlet mass spectrometry system for noble gases at natural abundances in gas and water samples.

    PubMed

    Visser, Ate; Singleton, Michael J; Hillegonds, Darren J; Velsko, Carol A; Moran, Jean E; Esser, Bradley K

    2013-11-15

    Noble gases dissolved in groundwater can reveal paleotemperatures, recharge conditions, and precise travel times. The collection and analysis of noble gas samples are cumbersome, involving noble gas purification, cryogenic separation and static mass spectrometry. A quicker and more efficient sample analysis method is required for introduced tracer studies and laboratory experiments. A Noble Gas Membrane Inlet Mass Spectrometry (NG-MIMS) system was developed to measure noble gases at natural abundances in gas and water samples. The NG-MIMS system consists of a membrane inlet, a dry-ice water trap, a carbon-dioxide trap, two getters, a gate valve, a turbomolecular pump and a quadrupole mass spectrometer equipped with an electron multiplier. Noble gases isotopes (4)He, (22)Ne, (38)Ar, (84)Kr and (132)Xe are measured every 10 s. The NG-MIMS system can reproduce measurements made on a traditional noble gas mass spectrometer system with precisions of 2%, 8%, 1%, 1% and 3% for He, Ne, Ar, Kr and Xe, respectively. Noble gas concentrations measured in an artificial recharge pond were used to monitor an introduced xenon tracer and to reconstruct temperature variations to within 2 °C. Additional experiments demonstrated the capability to measure noble gases in gas and in water samples, in real time. The NG-MIMS system is capable of providing analyses sufficiently accurate and precise for introduced noble gas tracers at managed aquifer recharge facilities, groundwater fingerprinting based on excess air and noble gas recharge temperature, and field and laboratory studies investigating ebullition and diffusive exchange. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Environmental Genomic Analysis of Stratified Microbial Communities and Climate Active Gases in the Subarctic Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, J.; Hallam, S.; Merzouk, A.; Tortell, P.

    2008-12-01

    Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are areas of low dissolved oxygen concentrations that play a major role in biogeochemical cycling within the world's oceans. They are major sinks for nitrogen and sources for the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide. Therefore, microbial mediated biological activity associated with these systems directly impacts ocean productivity and global climate balance. There is increasing evidence that ocean warming trends will decrease dissolved oxygen concentrations within the coastal and interior regions of the subarctic Pacific, causing an expansion of the hypoxic boundary layer. This expansion will have a direct effect on coastal benthic ecosystems and the productivity of marine fisheries due to habitat loss and changes in nutrient cycling. In order to understand the potential implications of these transitions, we are performing environmental genomic analyses of indigenous microbial communities found in coastal and open ocean OMZs in the subarctic Pacific Ocean in relation to dissolved gas and nutrient concentrations. In addition to identifying and describing the key microbial players and biochemical pathways contributing to carbon, nitrogen and sulfur metabolism within the subarctic Pacific Ocean, this work provides a solid comparative genomic foundation for understanding the biogeochemical processes at work in marine OMZs around the globe.

  19. Fishing Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  20. A simple Lagrangian forecast system with aviation forecast potential

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Petersen, R. A.; Homan, J. H.

    1983-01-01

    A trajectory forecast procedure is developed which uses geopotential tendency fields obtained from a simple, multiple layer, potential vorticity conservative isentropic model. This model can objectively account for short-term advective changes in the mass field when combined with fine-scale initial analyses. This procedure for producing short-term, upper-tropospheric trajectory forecasts employs a combination of a detailed objective analysis technique, an efficient mass advection model, and a diagnostically proven trajectory algorithm, none of which require extensive computer resources. Results of initial tests are presented, which indicate an exceptionally good agreement for trajectory paths entering the jet stream and passing through an intensifying trough. It is concluded that this technique not only has potential for aiding in route determination, fuel use estimation, and clear air turbulence detection, but also provides an example of the types of short range forecasting procedures which can be applied at local forecast centers using simple algorithms and a minimum of computer resources.

  1. U.S. Geological Survey Noble Gas Laboratory’s standard operating procedures for the measurement of dissolved gas in water samples

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunt, Andrew G.

    2015-08-12

    This report addresses the standard operating procedures used by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Noble Gas Laboratory in Denver, Colorado, U.S.A., for the measurement of dissolved gases (methane, nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon dioxide) and noble gas isotopes (helium-3, helium-4, neon-20, neon-21, neon-22, argon-36, argon-38, argon-40, kryton-84, krypton-86, xenon-103, and xenon-132) dissolved in water. A synopsis of the instrumentation used, procedures followed, calibration practices, standards used, and a quality assurance and quality control program is presented. The report outlines the day-to-day operation of the Residual Gas Analyzer Model 200, Mass Analyzer Products Model 215–50, and ultralow vacuum extraction line along with the sample handling procedures, noble gas extraction and purification, instrument measurement procedures, instrumental data acquisition, and calculations for the conversion of raw data from the mass spectrometer into noble gas concentrations per unit mass of water analyzed. Techniques for the preparation of artificial dissolved gas standards are detailed and coupled to a quality assurance and quality control program to present the accuracy of the procedures used in the laboratory.

  2. Superensemble forecasts of dengue outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Kandula, Sasikiran; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, a number of systems capable of predicting future infectious disease incidence have been developed. As more of these systems are operationalized, it is important that the forecasts generated by these different approaches be formally reconciled so that individual forecast error and bias are reduced. Here we present a first example of such multi-system, or superensemble, forecast. We develop three distinct systems for predicting dengue, which are applied retrospectively to forecast outbreak characteristics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. We then use Bayesian averaging methods to combine the predictions from these systems and create superensemble forecasts. We demonstrate that on average, the superensemble approach produces more accurate forecasts than those made from any of the individual forecasting systems. PMID:27733698

  3. Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

    2015-04-01

    Forecast verification is important across scientific disciplines as it provides a framework for evaluating the performance of a forecasting system. In the atmospheric sciences, probabilistic skill scores are often used for verification as they provide a way of unambiguously ranking the performance of different probabilistic forecasts. In order to be useful, a skill score must be proper -- it must encourage honesty in the forecaster, and reward forecasts which are reliable and which have good resolution. A new score, the Error-spread Score (ES), is proposed which is particularly suitable for evaluation of ensemble forecasts. It is formulated with respect to the moments of the forecast. The ES is confirmed to be a proper score, and is therefore sensitive to both resolution and reliability. The ES is tested on forecasts made using the Lorenz '96 system, and found to be useful for summarising the skill of the forecasts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated using the ES. Its performance is compared to a perfect statistical probabilistic forecast -- the ECMWF high resolution deterministic forecast dressed with the observed error distribution. This generates a forecast that is perfectly reliable if considered over all time, but which does not vary from day to day with the predictability of the atmospheric flow. The ES distinguishes between the dynamically reliable EPS forecasts and the statically reliable dressed deterministic forecasts. Other skill scores are tested and found to be comparatively insensitive to this desirable forecast quality. The ES is used to evaluate seasonal range ensemble forecasts made with the ECMWF System 4. The ensemble forecasts are found to be skilful when compared with climatological or persistence forecasts, though this skill is dependent on region and time of year.

  4. EnrollForecast for Excel: K-12 Enrollment Forecasting Program. Software & User's Guide. [Computer Diskette].

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Curtis A.

    "EnrollForecast for Excel" will generate a 5-year forecast of K-12 student enrollment. It will also work for any combination of grades between kindergarten and twelth. The forecasts can be printed as either a table or a graph. The user must provide birth history (only if forecasting kindergarten) and enrollment history information. The user also…

  5. Inert gases in Sea of Fertility regolith

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vinogradov, A. P.; Zadorozhnyy, I. K.

    1974-01-01

    The content and isotopic composition were studied of inert gases -- He, Ne, Ar, Kr, and Xe -- in samples of lunar regolith returned by the Luna 16 automatic station. The samples were taken from depths of about 12 and 30 cm. The high concentrations of inert gases exceed by several orders their concentrations observed in ordinary stony meteorites. The gases in lunar regolith were a complex mixture of gases of different origins: Solar, cosmogenic, radiogenic, and so on. Solar wind gases predominated, distributed in the thin surficial layer of the regolith grains. The concentrations of these gases in the surficial layer is several cubic centimeters per gram. The isotopic composition of the inert gases of solar origin approaches their composition measured in gas-rich meteorites.

  6. Operational on-line coupled chemical weather forecasts for Europe with WRF/Chem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirtl, Marcus; Mantovani, Simone; Krüger, Bernd C.; Flandorfer, Claudia; Langer, Matthias

    2014-05-01

    Air quality is a key element for the well-being and quality of life of European citizens. Air pollution measurements and modeling tools are essential for the assessment of air quality according to EU legislation. The responsibilities of ZAMG as the national weather service of Austria include the support of the federal states and the public in questions connected to the protection of the environment in the frame of advisory and counseling services as well as expert opinions. ZAMG conducts daily Air-Quality forecasts using the on-line coupled model WRF/Chem. Meteorology is simulated simultaneously with the emissions, turbulent mixing, transport, transformation, and fate of trace gases and aerosols. The emphasis of the application is on predicting pollutants over Austria. Two domains are used for the simulations: the mother domain covers Europe with a resolution of 12 km, the inner domain includes the alpine region with a horizontal resolution of 4 km; 45 model levels are used in the vertical direction. The model runs 2 times per day for a period of 72 hours and is initialized with ECMWF forecasts. On-line coupled models allow considering two-way interactions between different atmospheric processes including chemistry (both gases and aerosols), clouds, radiation, boundary layer, emissions, meteorology and climate. In the operational set-up direct-, indirect and semi-direct effects between meteorology and air chemistry are enabled. The model is running on the HPCF (High Performance Computing Facility) of the ZAMG. In the current set-up 1248 CPUs are used. As the simulations need a big amount of computing resources, a method to safe I/O-time was implemented. Every MPI task writes all its output into the shared memory filesystem of the compute nodes. Once the WRF/Chem integration is finished, all split NetCDF-files are merged and saved on the global file system. The merge-routine is based on parallel-NetCDF. With this method the model runs about 30% faster on the SGI

  7. Using Temperature Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado and Rio Grande Basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehner, F.; Wood, A.; Llewellyn, D.; Blatchford, D. B.; Goodbody, A. G.; Pappenberger, F.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have documented the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow across the American West, including snow-melt driven rivers such as the Colorado or Rio Grande. At the same time, some basins are reporting decreasing skill in seasonal streamflow forecasts, termed water supply forecasts (WSFs), over the recent decade. While the skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts from dynamical models remains low, their skill in predicting seasonal temperature variations could potentially be harvested for WSFs to account for non-stationarity in regional temperatures. Here, we investigate whether WSF skill can be improved by incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from dynamical forecasting models (from the North American Multi Model Ensemble and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast System 4) into traditional statistical forecast models. We find improved streamflow forecast skill relative to traditional WSF approaches in a majority of headwater locations in the Colorado and Rio Grande basins. Incorporation of temperature into WSFs thus provides a promising avenue to increase the robustness of current forecasting techniques in the face of continued regional warming.

  8. Flash flood forecasting using simplified hydrological models, radar rainfall forecasts and data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, P. J.; Beven, K.; Panziera, L.

    2012-04-01

    The issuing of timely flood alerts may be dependant upon the ability to predict future values of water level or discharge at locations where observations are available. Catchments at risk of flash flooding often have a rapid natural response time, typically less then the forecast lead time desired for issuing alerts. This work focuses on the provision of short-range (up to 6 hours lead time) predictions of discharge in small catchments based on utilising radar forecasts to drive a hydrological model. An example analysis based upon the Verzasca catchment (Ticino, Switzerland) is presented. Parsimonious time series models with a mechanistic interpretation (so called Data-Based Mechanistic model) have been shown to provide reliable accurate forecasts in many hydrological situations. In this study such a model is developed to predict the discharge at an observed location from observed precipitation data. The model is shown to capture the snow melt response at this site. Observed discharge data is assimilated to improve the forecasts, of up to two hours lead time, that can be generated from observed precipitation. To generate forecasts with greater lead time ensemble precipitation forecasts are utilised. In this study the Nowcasting ORographic precipitation in the Alps (NORA) product outlined in more detail elsewhere (Panziera et al. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 2011; DOI:10.1002/qj.878) is utilised. NORA precipitation forecasts are derived from historical analogues based on the radar field and upper atmospheric conditions. As such, they avoid the need to explicitly model the evolution of the rainfall field through for example Lagrangian diffusion. The uncertainty in the forecasts is represented by characterisation of the joint distribution of the observed discharge, the discharge forecast using the (in operational conditions unknown) future observed precipitation and that forecast utilising the NORA ensembles. Constructing the joint distribution in this way allows the full

  9. Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using the Princeton/U Washington National Hydrologic Forecasting System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Roundy, J. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Mo, K. C.; Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.

    2011-12-01

    Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts or floods are a significant source of social and economic damage in many parts of the world. Having sufficient warning of extreme events allows managers to prepare for and reduce the severity of their impacts. A hydrologic forecast system can give seasonal predictions that can be used by mangers to make better decisions; however there is still much uncertainty associated with such a system. Therefore it is important to understand the forecast skill of the system before transitioning to operational usage. Seasonal reforecasts (1982 - 2010) from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (both version 1 (CFS) and version 2 (CFSv2), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks and the European Seasonal Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) system, are assessed for forecasting skill in drought prediction across the U.S., both singularly and as a multi-model system The Princeton/U Washington national hydrologic monitoring and forecast system is being implemented at NCEP/EMC via their Climate Test Bed as the experimental hydrological forecast system to support U.S. operational drought prediction. Using our system, the seasonal forecasts are biased corrected, downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to give seasonal forecasts of hydrologic variables with lead times of up to six months. Results are presented for a number of events, with particular focus on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin in the South Eastern United States, which has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent years and is a pilot study basin for the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The performance of the VIC land surface model is evaluated using observational forcing when compared to observed streamflow. The effectiveness of the forecast system to predict streamflow and soil moisture is evaluated when compared with observed streamflow and modeled soil moisture driven by

  10. Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

    DOE PAGES

    Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; ...

    2016-11-14

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection andmore » Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.« less

  11. Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection andmore » Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.« less

  12. Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast

    PubMed Central

    Moran, Kelly R.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle; Osthus, Dave; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James; Del Valle, Sara Y.

    2016-01-01

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. We conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting. PMID:28830111

  13. Note: Dissolved hydrogen detection in power transformer oil based on chemically etched fiber Bragg grating.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Jun; Ma, Guo-ming; Song, Hong-tu; Zhou, Hong-yang; Li, Cheng-rong; Luo, Ying-ting; Wang, Hong-bin

    2015-10-01

    A fiber Bragg grating (FBG) sensor based on chemically etched cladding to detect dissolved hydrogen is proposed and studied in this paper. Low hydrogen concentration tests have been carried out in mixed gases and transformer oil to investigate the repeatability and sensitivity. Moreover, to estimate the influence of etched cladding thickness, a physical model of FBG-based hydrogen sensor is analyzed. Experimental results prove that thin cladding chemically etched by HF acid solution improves the response to hydrogen detection in oil effectively. At last, the sensitivity of FBG sensor chemically etched 16 μm could be as high as 0.060 pm/(μl/l), increased by more than 30% in comparison to un-etched FBG.

  14. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  15. Modeled Forecasts of Dengue Fever in San Juan, Puerto Rico Using NASA Satellite Enhanced Weather Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morin, C.; Quattrochi, D. A.; Zavodsky, B.; Case, J.

    2015-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is an important mosquito transmitted disease that is strongly influenced by meteorological and environmental conditions. Recent research has focused on forecasting DF case numbers based on meteorological data. However, these forecasting tools have generally relied on empirical models that require long DF time series to train. Additionally, their accuracy has been tested retrospectively, using past meteorological data. Consequently, the operational utility of the forecasts are still in question because the error associated with weather and climate forecasts are not reflected in the results. Using up-to-date weekly dengue case numbers for model parameterization and weather forecast data as meteorological input, we produced weekly forecasts of DF cases in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Each week, the past weeks' case counts were used to re-parameterize a process-based DF model driven with updated weather forecast data to generate forecasts of DF case numbers. Real-time weather forecast data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical weather prediction (NWP) system enhanced using additional high-resolution NASA satellite data. This methodology was conducted in a weekly iterative process with each DF forecast being evaluated using county-level DF cases reported by the Puerto Rico Department of Health. The one week DF forecasts were accurate especially considering the two sources of model error. First, weather forecasts were sometimes inaccurate and generally produced lower than observed temperatures. Second, the DF model was often overly influenced by the previous weeks DF case numbers, though this phenomenon could be lessened by increasing the number of simulations included in the forecast. Although these results are promising, we would like to develop a methodology to produce longer range forecasts so that public health workers can better prepare for dengue epidemics.

  16. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  17. Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

    1991-12-01

    Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

  18. 46 CFR 147.60 - Compressed gases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Compressed gases. 147.60 Section 147.60 Shipping COAST... Other Special Requirements for Particular Materials § 147.60 Compressed gases. (a) Cylinder requirements. Cylinders used for containing hazardous ships' stores that are compressed gases must be— (1) Authorized for...

  19. IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giebel, Gregor; Cline, Joel; Frank, Helmut; Shaw, Will; Pinson, Pierre; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Kariniotakis, Georges; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Draxl, Caroline

    2017-04-01

    Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Wind Power Forecasting tries to organise international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, …) and operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets for verification. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts aiming at industry and forecasters alike. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions, especially probabilistic ones. The Operating Agent is Gregor Giebel of DTU, Co-Operating Agent is Joel Cline of the US Department of Energy. Collaboration in the task is solicited from everyone interested in the forecasting business. We will collaborate with IEA Task 31 Wakebench, which developed the Windbench benchmarking platform, which this task will use for forecasting benchmarks. The task runs for three years, 2016-2018. Main deliverables are an up-to-date list of current projects and main project results, including datasets which can be used by researchers around the world to improve their own models, an IEA Recommended Practice on performance evaluation of probabilistic forecasts, a position paper regarding the use of probabilistic forecasts

  20. More Intense Experiences, Less Intense Forecasts: Why People Overweight Probability Specifications in Affective Forecasts

    PubMed Central

    Buechel, Eva C.; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K.; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6). PMID:24128184

  1. More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

    PubMed

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

  2. Development and application of an atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting model driven by TIGGE ensemble forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, Hongjun; Zhao, Linna

    2012-02-01

    A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecasting model, driven by The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data, has been developed for flood forecasting over the Huaihe River. The incorporation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) information into flood forecasting systems may increase forecast lead time from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP model forecast from a single forecast center, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and leads to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble NWP systems through TIGGE offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Xinanjiang model used for hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling and the one-dimensional unsteady flow model applied to channel flood routing are coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office (UKMO), and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The developed ensemble flood forecasting model is applied to flood forecasting of the 2007 flood season as a test case. The test case is chosen over the upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station with flood diversion and retarding areas. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The Muskingum method is used for flood routing in the flood diversion area. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. The results demonstrate satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to a

  3. Diel variations in stream chemistry and isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon, upper Clark Fork River, Montana, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parker, Stephen R.; Gammons, Christopher H.; Poulson, Simon R.; DeGrandpre, Michael D.

    2007-01-01

    Many rivers undergo diel (24-h) concentration fluctuations of pH, dissolved gases, trace metals, nutrients, and other chemical species. A study conducted in 1994 documented such behavior in the upper Clark Fork River, Montana, a stream whose headwaters have been severely impacted by historic metal mining, milling, and smelting. The purpose of the present investigation was to expand on these earlier findings by conducting simultaneous diel samplings at two sites on the upper Clark Fork River separated by 2.5 h of stream travel time. By monitoring two stations, it was possible to more closely examine the processes that control temporal and spatial gradients in stream chemistry. Another objective was to examine diel changes in the δ13C composition of dissolved inorganic C (DIC) and their relationship to biological activity in the stream. The most important findings of this study include: (1) concentrations of dissolved and particulate heavy metals increased during the night and decreased during the day, in agreement with previous work; (2) these changes were positively correlated to diel changes in pH, dissolved O2, and water temperature; (3) dissolved concentrations increased during the night at the lower site, but showed the opposite behavior at the upper site; and (4) diel changes in δ13C-DIC were noted at both sites, although the timing and magnitudes of the cycles differed. Hypotheses to explain the first two observations include: cyclic co-precipitation of divalent metals with carbonate minerals; pH- and temperature-dependent sorption of metal cations onto the streambed and suspended particles; or photosynthetically enhanced oxidation and removal of Fe and Mn oxides at biofilm surfaces during the daytime. The latter model explains the majority of the field observations, including night-time increases in particulate forms of Fe and other elements.

  4. Forecasts of land uses

    Treesearch

    David N. Wear

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsBetween 30 million and 43 million acres of land in the South are forecasted to be developed for urban uses by 2060 from a base of 30 million acres in 1997. These forecasts are based on a continuation of historical development intensities.From 1997 to 2060, the South is forecasted to lose between 11 million acres (7...

  5. Hydrological Forecasting Practices in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Fernando; Paiva, Rodrigo; Collischonn, Walter; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2016-04-01

    This work brings a review on current hydrological and flood forecasting practices in Brazil, including the main forecasts applications, the different kinds of techniques that are currently being employed and the institutions involved on forecasts generation. A brief overview of Brazil is provided, including aspects related to its geography, climate, hydrology and flood hazards. A general discussion about the Brazilian practices on hydrological short and medium range forecasting is presented. Detailed examples of some hydrological forecasting systems that are operational or in a research/pre-operational phase using the large scale hydrological model MGB-IPH are also presented. Finally, some suggestions are given about how the forecasting practices in Brazil can be understood nowadays, and what are the perspectives for the future.

  6. Method of concurrently filtering particles and collecting gases

    DOEpatents

    Mitchell, Mark A; Meike, Annemarie; Anderson, Brian L

    2015-04-28

    A system for concurrently filtering particles and collecting gases. Materials are be added (e.g., via coating the ceramic substrate, use of loose powder(s), or other means) to a HEPA filter (ceramic, metal, or otherwise) to collect gases (e.g., radioactive gases such as iodine). The gases could be radioactive, hazardous, or valuable gases.

  7. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  8. Noble gases in the moon

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manuel, O. K.; Srinivasan, B.; Hennecke, E. W.; Sinclair, D. E.

    1972-01-01

    The abundance and isotopic composition of helium, neon, argon, krypton, and xenon which were released by stepwise heating of lunar fines (15601.64) and (15271.65) were measured spectrometrically. The results of a composition of noble gases released from the lunar fines with noble gases in meteorites and in the earth are presented along with the isotopic composition of noble gases in lunar fines, in meteorites, and in the atmosphere. A study of two isotopically distinct components of trapped xenon in carbonaceous chondrites is also included.

  9. Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

  10. Angular correlation studies in noble gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Coleman, P. G.

    1990-01-01

    There has been a recent revival of interest in the measurement of angular correlation of annihilation photons from the decay of positrons and positronium in gases. This revival has been stimulated by the possibility offered by the technique to shed new light on the apparently low positronium formation fraction in the heavier noble gases and to provide information on positronium quenching processes in gases such as oxygen. There is also the potential for learning about positronium slowing down in gases. This review focuses on experimental noble gas work and considers what new information has been, and may be, gained from these studies.

  11. Dissolved organic matter composition drives the marine production of brominated very short-lived substances.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yina; Thornton, Daniel C O; Bianchi, Thomas S; Arnold, William A; Shields, Michael R; Chen, Jie; Yvon-Lewis, Shari A

    2015-03-17

    Brominated very short-lived substances (BrVSLS), such as bromoform, are important trace gases for stratospheric ozone chemistry. These naturally derived trace gases are formed via bromoperoxidase-mediated halogenation of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in seawater. Information on DOM type in relation to the observed BrVSLS concentrations in seawater, however, is scarce. We examined the sensitivity of BrVSLS production in relation to the presence of specific DOM moieties. A total of 28 model DOM compounds in artificial seawater were treated with vanadium bromoperoxidase (V-BrPO). Our results show a clear dependence of BrVSLS production on DOM type. In general, molecules that comprise a large fraction of the bulk DOM pool did not noticeably affect BrVSLS production. Only specific cell metabolites and humic acid appeared to significantly enhance BrVSLS production. Amino acids and lignin phenols suppressed enzyme-mediated BrVSLS production and may instead have formed halogenated nonvolatile molecules. Dibromomethane production was not observed in any experiments, suggesting it is not produced by the same pathway as the other BrVSLS. Our results suggest that regional differences in DOM composition may explain the observed BrVSLS concentration variability in the global ocean. Ultimately, BrVSLS production and concentrations are likely affected by DOM composition, reactivity, and cycling in the ocean.

  12. The Forecast Interpretation Tool—a Monte Carlo technique for blending climatic distributions with probabilistic forecasts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel; Kyriakidis, P.; Verdin, James P.; Funk, Chris; Galu, Gideon

    2011-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts are produced from a variety of outlets to help predict rainfall, and other meteorological events, for periods of 1 month or more. Such forecasts are expressed as probabilities of a rainfall event, e.g. being in the upper, middle, or lower third of the relevant distribution of rainfall in the region. The impact of these forecasts on the expectation for the event is not always clear or easily conveyed. This article proposes a technique based on Monte Carlo simulation for adjusting existing climatologic statistical parameters to match forecast information, resulting in new parameters defining the probability of events for the forecast interval. The resulting parameters are shown to approximate the forecasts with reasonable accuracy. To show the value of the technique as an application for seasonal rainfall, it is used with consensus forecast developed for the Greater Horn of Africa for the 2009 March-April-May season. An alternative, analytical approach is also proposed, and discussed in comparison to the first simulation-based technique.

  13. MMAB Sea Ice Forecast Page

    Science.gov Websites

    verification statistics Grumbine, R. W., Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 886-890, 1998. MMAB Note: Virtual Floe Ice Drift Forecast Model Intercomparison 1996 pdf ~47

  14. COSMO-PAFOG: Three-dimensional fog forecasting with the high-resolution COSMO-model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hacker, Maike; Bott, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    simulated visibility agrees with observations. However, fog tends to be dissolved earlier than in the observation. As a result of the investigated fog events, it is concluded that the three-dimensional fog forecast model COSMO-PAFOG is able to simulate these fog events in accordance with observations. After the successful application of COSMO-PAFOG for fog events in the west of Germany, model simulations will be performed for coastal desert fog in the Namib region.

  15. Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast.

    PubMed

    Moran, Kelly R; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle; Osthus, Dave; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James; Del Valle, Sara Y

    2016-12-01

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. We conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  16. Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

    2016-10-01

    Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

  17. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence

    PubMed Central

    Mandel, David R.; Barnes, Alan

    2014-01-01

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4–0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement. PMID:25024176

  18. Calls Forecast for the Moscow Ambulance Service. The Impact of Weather Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordin, Vladimir; Bykov, Philipp

    2015-04-01

    We use the known statistics of the calls for the current and previous days to predict them for tomorrow and for the following days. We assume that this algorithm will work operatively, will cyclically update the available information and will move the horizon of the forecast. Sure, the accuracy of such forecasts depends on their lead time, and from a choice of some group of diagnoses. For comparison we used the error of the inertial forecast (tomorrow there will be the same number of calls as today). Our technology has demonstrated accuracy that is approximately two times better compared to the inertial forecast. We obtained the following result: the number of calls depends on the actual weather in the city as well as on its rate of change. We were interested in the accuracy of the forecast for 12-hour sum of the calls in real situations. We evaluate the impact of the meteorological errors [1] on the forecast errors of the number of Ambulance calls. The weather and the Ambulance calls number both have seasonal tendencies. Therefore, if we have medical information from one city only, we should separate the impacts of such predictors as "annual variations in the number of calls" and "weather". We need to consider the seasonal tendencies (associated, e. g. with the seasonal migration of the population) and the impact of the air temperature simultaneously, rather than sequentially. We forecasted separately the number of calls with diagnoses of cardiovascular group, where it was demonstrated the advantage of the forecasting method, when we use the maximum daily air temperature as a predictor. We have a chance to evaluate statistically the influence of meteorological factors on the dynamics of medical problems. In some cases it may be useful for understanding of the physiology of disease and possible treatment options. We can assimilate some personal archives of medical parameters for the individuals with concrete diseases and the relative meteorological archive. As a

  19. Eco-morphological Real-time Forecasting tool to predict hydrodynamic, sediment and nutrient dynamic in Coastal Louisiana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Messina, F.; Meselhe, E. A.; Buckman, L.; Twight, D.

    2017-12-01

    Louisiana coastal zone is one of the most productive and dynamic eco-geomorphic systems in the world. This unique natural environment has been alternated by human activities and natural processes such as sea level rise, subsidence, dredging of canals for oil and gas production, the Mississippi River levees which don't allow the natural river sediment. As a result of these alterations land loss, erosion and flood risk are becoming real issues for Louisiana. Costal authorities have been studying the benefits and effects of several restoration projects, e.g. freshwater and sediment diversions. The protection of communities, wildlife and of the unique environments is a high priority in this region. The Water Institute of the Gulf, together with Deltares, has developed a forecasting and information system for a pilot location in Coastal Louisiana, specifically for Barataria Bay and Breton Sound Basins in the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain. The system provides a 7-day forecast of water level, salinity, and temperature, under atmospheric and coastal forecasted conditions, such as freshwater riverine inflow, rainfall, evaporation, wind, and tide. The system also forecasts nutrient distribution (e.g., Chla and dissolved oxygen) and sediment transport. The Flood Early Warning System FEWS is used as a platform to import multivariate data from several sources, use them to monitor the pilot location and to provide boundary conditions to the model. A hindcast model is applied to compare the model results to the observed data, and to provide the initial condition to the forecast model. This system represents a unique tool which provides valuable information regarding the overall conditions of the basins. It offers the opportunity to adaptively manage existing and planned diversions to meet certain salinity and water level targets or thresholds while maximizing land-building goals. Moreover, water quality predictions provide valuable information on the current ecological

  20. Data-Driven Disease Forecasting

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Generous, Nicholas

    If disease outbreaks could be forecasted like the weather, communities could set up protective measures to mitigate their impact. At Los Alamos National Laboratory, scientists are improving disease-forecasting mathematical models by using clinical data--as well as internet data sources such as Wikipedia, Twitter, and Google--and coupling it with satellite imagery. The goal is to better understanding how diseases spread and, eventually, forecast disease outbreaks.

  1. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan

    2015-10-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reductionmore » in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.« less

  2. Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Caswell, Hal; DeWeaver, Eric; Stirling, Ian; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Hunter, Christine M.

    2009-01-01

    Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38(5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific

  3. Source gases: Concentrations, emissions, and trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fraser, Paul J.; Harriss, Robert; Penkett, Stuart A.; Makide, Yoshihiro; Sanhueza, Eugenio; Alyea, Fred N.; Rowland, F. Sherwood; Blake, Don; Sasaki, Toru; Cunnold, Derek M.

    1991-01-01

    Source gases are defined as those gases that influence levels of stratospheric ozone (O3) by transporting species containing halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen to the stratosphere. Examples are the CFC's, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Other source gases that also come under consideration in an atmospheric O3 context are those that are involved in the O3 or hydroxyl (OH) radical chemistry of the troposphere. Examples are CH4, carbon monoxide (CO), and nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC's). Most of the source gases, along with carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapor (H2O), are climatically significant and thus affect stratospheric O3 levels by their influence on stratospheric temperatures. Carbonyl sulphide (COS) could affect stratospheric O3 through maintenance of the stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer, which may be involved in heterogeneous chlorine-catalyzed O3 destruction. The previous reviews of trends and emissions of source gases, either from the context of their influence on atmospheric O3 or global climate change, are updated. The current global abundances and concentration trends of the trace gases are given in tabular format.

  4. Short-term sea ice forecasting: An assessment of ice concentration and ice drift forecasts using the U.S. Navy's Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hebert, David A.; Allard, Richard A.; Metzger, E. Joseph; Posey, Pamela G.; Preller, Ruth H.; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Phelps, Michael W.; Smedstad, Ole Martin

    2015-12-01

    In this study the forecast skill of the U.S. Navy operational Arctic sea ice forecast system, the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS), is presented for the period February 2014 to June 2015. ACNFS is designed to provide short term, 1-7 day forecasts of Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions. Many quantities are forecast by ACNFS; the most commonly used include ice concentration, ice thickness, ice velocity, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface velocities. Ice concentration forecast skill is compared to a persistent ice state and historical sea ice climatology. Skill scores are focused on areas where ice concentration changes by ±5% or more, and are therefore limited to primarily the marginal ice zone. We demonstrate that ACNFS forecasts are skilful compared to assuming a persistent ice state, especially beyond 24 h. ACNFS is also shown to be particularly skilful compared to a climatologic state for forecasts up to 102 h. Modeled ice drift velocity is compared to observed buoy data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme. A seasonal bias is shown where ACNFS is slower than IABP velocity in the summer months and faster in the winter months. In February 2015, ACNFS began to assimilate a blended ice concentration derived from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). Preliminary results show that assimilating AMSR2 blended with IMS improves the short-term forecast skill and ice edge location compared to the independently derived National Ice Center Ice Edge product.

  5. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish Kumar; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill; Brown, James D.; Demargne, Julie

    2013-08-01

    We present a statistical procedure for generating short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, streamflow forecasts produced operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The resulting ensemble streamflow forecast provides an estimate of the predictive uncertainty associated with the single-valued forecast to support risk-based decision making by the forecasters and by the users of the forecast products, such as emergency managers. Forced by single-valued quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF), the single-valued streamflow forecasts are produced at a 6-h time step nominally out to 5 days into the future. The single-valued streamflow forecasts reflect various run-time modifications, or "manual data assimilation", applied by the human forecasters in an attempt to reduce error from various sources in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates ensemble traces of streamflow from a parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecast, QPF, and the most recent streamflow observation. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a multiyear archive of the single-valued river stage forecast produced operationally by the NWS Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma. As a by-product of parameter estimation, the procedure provides a categorical assessment of the effective lead time of the operational hydrologic forecasts for different QPF and forecast flow conditions. To evaluate the procedure, we carried out hindcasting experiments in dependent and cross-validation modes. The results indicate that the short-term streamflow ensemble hindcasts generated from the procedure are generally reliable within the effective lead time of the single-valued forecasts and well capture the skill of the single-valued forecasts. For smaller

  6. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  7. Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: the skill-persistence rule

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Y.; Rong, X.; Liu, Z.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the factors that impact the forecast skill for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill of sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further examined using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but can be distorted by the sampling error and non-AR1 processes.

  8. The Eruption Forecasting Information System: Volcanic Eruption Forecasting Using Databases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogburn, S. E.; Harpel, C. J.; Pesicek, J. D.; Wellik, J.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting eruptions, including the onset size, duration, location, and impacts, is vital for hazard assessment and risk mitigation. The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) project is a new initiative of the US Geological Survey-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) and will advance VDAP's ability to forecast the outcome of volcanic unrest. The project supports probability estimation for eruption forecasting by creating databases useful for pattern recognition, identifying monitoring data thresholds beyond which eruptive probabilities increase, and for answering common forecasting questions. A major component of the project is a global relational database, which contains multiple modules designed to aid in the construction of probabilistic event trees and to answer common questions that arise during volcanic crises. The primary module contains chronologies of volcanic unrest. This module allows us to query eruption chronologies, monitoring data, descriptive information, operational data, and eruptive phases alongside other global databases, such as WOVOdat and the Global Volcanism Program. The EFIS database is in the early stages of development and population; thus, this contribution also is a request for feedback from the community. Preliminary data are already benefitting several research areas. For example, VDAP provided a forecast of the likely remaining eruption duration for Sinabung volcano, Indonesia, using global data taken from similar volcanoes in the DomeHaz database module, in combination with local monitoring time-series data. In addition, EFIS seismologists used a beta-statistic test and empirically-derived thresholds to identify distal volcano-tectonic earthquake anomalies preceding Alaska volcanic eruptions during 1990-2015 to retrospectively evaluate Alaska Volcano Observatory eruption precursors. This has identified important considerations for selecting analog volcanoes for global data analysis, such as differences between

  9. Noble Gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Podosek, F. A.

    2003-12-01

    The noble gases are the group of elements - helium, neon, argon, krypton, xenon - in the rightmost column of the periodic table of the elements, those which have "filled" outermost shells of electrons (two for helium, eight for the others). This configuration of electrons results in a neutral atom that has relatively low electron affinity and relatively high ionization energy. In consequence, in most natural circumstances these elements do not form chemical compounds, whence they are called "noble." Similarly, much more so than other elements in most circumstances, they partition strongly into a gas phase (as monatomic gas), so that they are called the "noble gases" (also, "inert gases"). (It should be noted, of course, that there is a sixth noble gas, radon, but all isotopes of radon are radioactive, with maximum half-life a few days, so that radon occurs in nature only because of recent production in the U-Th decay chains. The factors that govern the distribution of radon isotopes are thus quite different from those for the five gases cited. There are interesting stories about radon, but they are very different from those about the first five noble gases, and are thus outside the scope of this chapter.)In the nuclear fires in which the elements are forged, the creation and destruction of a given nuclear species depends on its nuclear properties, not on whether it will have a filled outermost shell when things cool off and nuclei begin to gather electrons. The numerology of nuclear physics is different from that of chemistry, so that in the cosmos at large there is nothing systematically special about the abundances of the noble gases as compared to other elements. We live in a very nonrepresentative part of the cosmos, however. As is discussed elsewhere in this volume, the outstanding generalization about the geo-/cosmochemistry of the terrestrial planets is that at some point thermodynamic conditions dictated phase separation of solids from gases, and that the

  10. 27 CFR 19.455 - Dissolving of denaturants.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Dissolving of denaturants... Denaturation § 19.455 Dissolving of denaturants. Denaturants which are difficult to dissolve in spirits at... may be liquefied or dissolved in a small quantity of spirits or water in advance of their use in the...

  11. Statistical Earthquake Focal Mechanism Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    The new whole Earth focal mechanism forecast, based on the GCMT catalog, has been created. In the present forecast, the sum of normalized seismic moment tensors within 1000 km radius is calculated and the P- and T-axes for the focal mechanism are evaluated on the basis of the sum. Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms. This average angle shows tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The method was originally proposed by Kagan and Jackson (1994, JGR). Recent interest by CSEP and GEM has motivated some improvements, particularly to extend the previous forecast to polar and near-polar regions. The major problem in extending the forecast is the focal mechanism calculation on a spherical surface. In the previous forecast as our average focal mechanism was computed, it was assumed that longitude lines are approximately parallel within 1000 km radius. This is largely accurate in the equatorial and near-equatorial areas. However, when one approaches the 75 degree latitude, the longitude lines are no longer parallel: the bearing (azimuthal) difference at points separated by 1000 km reach about 35 degrees. In most situations a forecast point where we calculate an average focal mechanism is surrounded by earthquakes, so a bias should not be strong due to the difference effect cancellation. But if we move into polar regions, the bearing difference could approach 180 degrees. In a modified program focal mechanisms have been projected on a plane tangent to a sphere at a forecast point. New longitude axes which are parallel in the tangent plane are corrected for the bearing difference. A comparison with the old 75S-75N forecast shows that in equatorial regions the forecasted focal mechanisms are almost the same, and the difference in the forecasted focal mechanisms rotation angle is close to zero. However, though the forecasted focal mechanisms are similar

  12. An Evaluation of the NOAA Climate Forecast System Subseasonal Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mass, C.; Weber, N.

    2016-12-01

    This talk will describe a multi-year evaluation of the 1-5 week forecasts of the NOAA Climate Forecasting System (CFS) over the globe, North America, and the western U.S. Forecasts are evaluated for both specific times and for a variety of time-averaging periods. Initial results show a loss of predictability at approximately three weeks, with sea surface temperature retaining predictability longer than atmospheric variables. It is shown that a major CFS problem is an inability to realistically simulate propagating convection in the tropics, with substantial implications for midlatitude teleconnections and subseasonal predictability. The inability of CFS to deal with tropical convection will be discussed in connection with the prediction of extreme climatic events over the midlatitudes.

  13. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  14. Measuring Gases Using Drones at Turrialba Volcano, Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stix, J.; Alan, A., Jr.; Corrales, E.; D'Arcy, F.; de Moor, M. J.; Diaz, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    We are currently developing a series of drones and associated instrumentation to study Turrialba volcano in Costa Rica. This volcano has shown increasing activity during the last 20 years, and the volcano is currently in a state of heightened unrest as exemplified by recent explosive activity in May-August 2016. The eruptive activity has made the summit area inaccessible to normal gas monitoring activities, prompting development of new techniques to measure gas compositions. We have been using two drones, a DJI Spreading Wings S1000 octocopter and a Turbo Ace Matrix-i quadcopter, to airlift a series of instruments to measure volcanic gases in the plume of the volcano. These instruments comprise optical and electrochemical sensors to measure CO2, SO2, and H2S concentrations which are considered the most significant species to help forecast explosive eruptions and determine the relative proportions of magmatic and hydrothermal components in the volcanic gas. Additionally, cameras and sensors to measure air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, and GPS location are included in the package to provide meteorological and geo-referenced information to complement the concentration data and provide a better picture of the volcano from a remote location. The integrated payloads weigh 1-2 kg, which can typically be flown by the drones in 10-20 minutes at altitudes of 2000-4000 meters. Preliminary tests at Turrialba in May 2016 have been very encouraging, and we are in the process of refining both the drones and the instrumentation packages for future flights. Our broader goals are to map gases in detail with the drones in order to make flux measurements of each species, and to apply this approach at other volcanoes.

  15. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  16. Sufficient Forecasting Using Factor Models

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jianqing; Xue, Lingzhou; Yao, Jiawei

    2017-01-01

    We consider forecasting a single time series when there is a large number of predictors and a possible nonlinear effect. The dimensionality was first reduced via a high-dimensional (approximate) factor model implemented by the principal component analysis. Using the extracted factors, we develop a novel forecasting method called the sufficient forecasting, which provides a set of sufficient predictive indices, inferred from high-dimensional predictors, to deliver additional predictive power. The projected principal component analysis will be employed to enhance the accuracy of inferred factors when a semi-parametric (approximate) factor model is assumed. Our method is also applicable to cross-sectional sufficient regression using extracted factors. The connection between the sufficient forecasting and the deep learning architecture is explicitly stated. The sufficient forecasting correctly estimates projection indices of the underlying factors even in the presence of a nonparametric forecasting function. The proposed method extends the sufficient dimension reduction to high-dimensional regimes by condensing the cross-sectional information through factor models. We derive asymptotic properties for the estimate of the central subspace spanned by these projection directions as well as the estimates of the sufficient predictive indices. We further show that the natural method of running multiple regression of target on estimated factors yields a linear estimate that actually falls into this central subspace. Our method and theory allow the number of predictors to be larger than the number of observations. We finally demonstrate that the sufficient forecasting improves upon the linear forecasting in both simulation studies and an empirical study of forecasting macroeconomic variables. PMID:29731537

  17. Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

  18. Research of medical gases in Poland

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Research of medical gases is well established in Poland and has been marked with the foundation of several professional societies. Numerous academic centers including those dealing with hyperbaric and diving medicine conduct studies of medical gases, in vast majority supported with intramural funds. In general, Polish research of medical gases is very much clinical in nature, covering new applications and safety of medical gases in medicine; on the other hand there are several academic centers pursuing preclinical studies, and elaborating basic theories of gas physiology and mathematical modeling of gas exchange. What dominates is research dealing with oxygen and ozone as well as studies of anesthetic gases and their applications. Finally, several research directions involving noble gas, hydrogen and hydrogen sulfide for cell protection, only begin to gain recognition of basic scientists and clinicians. However, further developments require more monetary spending on research and clinical testing as well as formation of new collective bodies for coordinating efforts in this matter. PMID:23916016

  19. Fast-dissolve drug delivery systems.

    PubMed

    Habib, W; Khankari, R; Hontz, J

    2000-01-01

    Fast-dissolve drug delivery is a rapidly growing area in the pharmaceutical industry. This paper defines the technology, discusses its benefits, and reviews and compares various fast-dissolve technologies currently available on the market.

  20. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

  1. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted

  2. Wind-Farm Forecasting Using the HARMONIE Weather Forecast Model and Bayes Model Averaging for Bias Removal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, Enda; McKinstry, Alastair; Ralph, Adam

    2015-04-01

    Building on previous work presented at EGU 2013 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610213016068 ), more results are available now from a different wind-farm in complex terrain in southwest Ireland. The basic approach is to interpolate wind-speed forecasts from an operational weather forecast model (i.e., HARMONIE in the case of Ireland) to the precise location of each wind-turbine, and then use Bayes Model Averaging (BMA; with statistical information collected from a prior training-period of e.g., 25 days) to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected wind-speed forecasts (and associated power-generation forecasts) are then provided twice daily (at 5am and 5pm) out to 30 hours, with each forecast validation fed back to BMA for future learning. 30-hr forecasts from the operational Met Éireann HARMONIE model at 2.5km resolution have been validated against turbine SCADA observations since Jan. 2014. An extra high-resolution (0.5km grid-spacing) HARMONIE configuration has been run since Nov. 2014 as an extra member of the forecast "ensemble". A new version of HARMONIE with extra filters designed to stabilize high-resolution configurations has been run since Jan. 2015. Measures of forecast skill and forecast errors will be provided, and the contributions made by the various physical and computational enhancements to HARMONIE will be quantified.

  3. Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuhlthan, A. R.; Vermuri, R. S.

    1978-01-01

    Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling.

  4. Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases

    EIA Publications

    2011-01-01

    The Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program was suspended May 2011. It was a mechanism by which corporations, government agencies, individuals, voluntary organizations, etc., could report to the Energy Information Administration, any actions taken that have or are expected to reduce/avoid emissions of greenhouse gases or sequester carbon.

  5. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  6. Seasonal and Latitudinal Variations in Dissolved Methane from 42 Lakes along a North-South Transect in Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sepulveda-Jauregui, A.; Walter Anthony, K. M.; Martinez-Cruz, K. C.; Anthony, P.; Thalasso, F.

    2013-12-01

    Armando Sepulveda-Jauregui,* Katey M. Walter Anthony,* Karla Martinez-Cruz,* ** Peter Anthony,* and Frederic Thalasso**. * Water and Environmental Research Center, Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska. ** Biotechnology and Bioengineering Department, Cinvestav, Mexico city, D. F., Mexico. Northern lakes are important reservoirs and sources to the atmosphere of methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas. It is estimated that northern lakes (> 55 °N) contribute about 20% of the total global lake methane emissions, and that emissions from these lakes will increase with climate warming. Temperature rise enhances methane production directly by providing the kinetic energy to methanogenesis, and indirectly by supplying organic matter from thawing permafrost. Warmer lakes also store less methane since methane's solubility is inversely related to temperature. Alaskan lakes are located in three well-differentiated permafrost classes: yedoma permafrost with high labile carbon stocks, non-yedoma permafrost with lower carbon stocks, and areas without permafrost, also with generally lower carbon stocks. We sampled dissolved methane from 42 Alaskan lakes located in these permafrost cover classes along a north-south Alaska transect from Prudhoe Bay to the Kenai Peninsula during open-water conditions in summer 2011. We sampled 26 of these lakes in April, toward the end of the winter ice-covered period. Our results indicated that the largest dissolved methane concentrations occurred in interior Alaska thermokarst lakes formed in yedoma-type permafrost during winter and summer, with maximal concentrations of 17.19 and 12.76 mg L-1 respectively. In these lakes, emission of dissolved gases as diffusion during summer and storage release in spring were 18.4% and 17.4% of the annual emission budget, while ebullition (64.2 %) comprised the rest. Dissolved oxygen was inversely correlated with dissolved methane concentrations in both seasons; the

  7. Reale Gase, tiefe Temperaturen

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heintze, Joachim

    Wir werden uns in diesem Kapitel zunächst mit der van der Waals'schen Zustandsgleichung befassen. In dieser Gleichung wird versucht, die Abweichungen, die reale Gase vom Verhalten idealer Gase zeigen, durch physikalisch motivierte Korrekturterme zu berücksichtigen. Es zeigt sich, dass die van derWaals-Gleichung geeignet ist, nicht nur die Gasphase, sondern auch die Phänomene bei der Verflüssigung von Gasen und den kritischen Punkt zu beschreiben.

  8. Lessons from geothermal gases at Yellowstone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowenstern, J. B.; Bergfeld, D.; Evans, W.; Hurwitz, S.

    2015-12-01

    The magma-hydrothermal system of the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field encompasses over ten thousand individual springs, seeps, and fumaroles spread out over >9000 square kilometers, and produces a range of acid, neutral and alkaline waters. A prominent model (Fournier, 1989 and related papers) concludes that many neutral and alkaline fluids found in hot springs and geysers are derived from a uniform, high-enthalpy parent fluid through processes such as deep boiling and mixing with dilute meteoric groundwater. Acid waters are generally condensates of gas-bearing steam that boils off of subsurface geothermal waters. Our recent studies of gases at Yellowstone (Lowenstern et al., 2015 and references therein) are compatible with such a model, but also reveal that gases are largely decoupled from thermal waters due to open-system addition of abundant deep gas to (comparatively) shallow circulating thermal waters. Fumarole emissions at Yellowstone range from gas-rich (up to 15 mol%) composed of deeply derived CO2, He and CH4, to steam-rich emissions (<0.01% gas) dominated by N2 and Ar. The clear implication is that deep gas is diluted with atmospheric gas boiled off of geothermal liquids. The general trend is antithetical to that predicted by progressive boiling of a parent fluid (Rayleigh or batch degassing), where decreasing gas content should correlate with increasing proportions of soluble gas (i.e., CO2). Deep gas at Yellowstone fits into two general categories: 1) mantle-derived CO2 with a hotspot He isotope signature (>16 RA) and low CH4 and He concentrations and 2) mantle-derived CO2 with much higher CH4 and/or He concentrations and abundant radiogenic He picked up from crustal degassing. Individual thermal areas have distinct CH4/He. It remains unclear whether some gas ratios mainly reflect subsurface geothermal temperatures. Instead, they may simply reflect signatures imparted by local rock types and mixing on timescales too fast for reequilibration. Overall

  9. Optimizing Tsunami Forecast Model Accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitmore, P.; Nyland, D. L.; Huang, P. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Recent tsunamis provide a means to determine the accuracy that can be expected of real-time tsunami forecast models. Forecast accuracy using two different tsunami forecast models are compared for seven events since 2006 based on both real-time application and optimized, after-the-fact "forecasts". Lessons learned by comparing the forecast accuracy determined during an event to modified applications of the models after-the-fact provide improved methods for real-time forecasting for future events. Variables such as source definition, data assimilation, and model scaling factors are examined to optimize forecast accuracy. Forecast accuracy is also compared for direct forward modeling based on earthquake source parameters versus accuracy obtained by assimilating sea level data into the forecast model. Results show that including assimilated sea level data into the models increases accuracy by approximately 15% for the events examined.

  10. Empirical seasonal forecasts of the NAO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchezgomez, E.; Ortizbevia, M.

    2003-04-01

    We present here seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) issued from ocean predictors with an empirical procedure. The Singular Values Decomposition (SVD) of the cross-correlation matrix between predictor and predictand fields at the lag used for the forecast lead is at the core of the empirical model. The main predictor field are sea surface temperature anomalies, although sea ice cover anomalies are also used. Forecasts are issued in probabilistic form. The model is an improvement over a previous version (1), where Sea Level Pressure Anomalies were first forecast, and the NAO Index built from this forecast field. Both correlation skill between forecast and observed field, and number of forecasts that hit the correct NAO sign, are used to assess the forecast performance , usually above those values found in the case of forecasts issued assuming persistence. For certain seasons and/or leads, values of the skill are above the .7 usefulness treshold. References (1) SanchezGomez, E. and Ortiz Bevia M., 2002, Estimacion de la evolucion pluviometrica de la Espana Seca atendiendo a diversos pronosticos empiricos de la NAO, in 'El Agua y el Clima', Publicaciones de la AEC, Serie A, N 3, pp 63-73, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

  11. Denitrification of combustion gases. [Patent application

    DOEpatents

    Yang, R.T.

    1980-10-09

    A method for treating waste combustion gas to remove the nitrogen oxygen gases therefrom is disclosed wherein the waste gas is first contacted with calcium oxide which absorbs and chemically reacts with the nitrogen oxide gases therein at a temperature from about 100/sup 0/ to 430/sup 0/C. The thus reacted calcium oxide (now calcium nitrate) is then heated at a temperature range between about 430/sup 0/ and 900/sup 0/C, resulting in regeneration of the calcium oxide and production of the decomposition gas composed of nitrogen and nitrogen oxide gas. The decomposition gases can be recycled to the calcium oxide contacting step to minimize the amount of nitrogen oxide gases in the final product gas.

  12. In situ Raman-based measurements of high dissolved methane concentrations in hydrate-rich ocean sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xin; Hester, Keith C.; Ussler, William; Walz, Peter M.; Peltzer, Edward T.; Brewer, Peter G.

    2011-04-01

    Ocean sediment dissolved CH4 concentrations are of interest for possible climate-driven venting from sea floor hydrate decomposition, for supporting the large-scale microbial anaerobic oxidation of CH4 that holds the oceanic CH4 budget in balance, and for environmental issues of the oil and gas industry. Analyses of CH4 from recovered cores near vent locations typically show a maximum of ˜1 mM, close to the 1 atmosphere equilibrium value. We show from novel in situ measurement with a Raman-based probe that geochemically coherent profiles of dissolved CH4 occur rising to 30 mM (pCH4 = 3 MPa) or an excess pressure ˜3× greater than CO2 in a bottle of champagne. Normalization of the CH4 Raman ν1 peak to the ubiquitous water ν2 bending peak provides a fundamental internal calibration. Very large losses of CH4 and fractions of other gases (CO2, H2S) must typically occur from recovered cores at gas rich sites. The new data are consistent with observations of microbial biomass and observed CH4 oxidation rates at hydrate rich sites and support estimates of a greatly expanded near surface oceanic pore water CH4 reservoir.

  13. Stochastic Model of Seasonal Runoff Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krzysztofowicz, Roman; Watada, Leslie M.

    1986-03-01

    Each year the National Weather Service and the Soil Conservation Service issue a monthly sequence of five (or six) categorical forecasts of the seasonal snowmelt runoff volume. To describe uncertainties in these forecasts for the purposes of optimal decision making, a stochastic model is formulated. It is a discrete-time, finite, continuous-space, nonstationary Markov process. Posterior densities of the actual runoff conditional upon a forecast, and transition densities of forecasts are obtained from a Bayesian information processor. Parametric densities are derived for the process with a normal prior density of the runoff and a linear model of the forecast error. The structure of the model and the estimation procedure are motivated by analyses of forecast records from five stations in the Snake River basin, from the period 1971-1983. The advantages of supplementing the current forecasting scheme with a Bayesian analysis are discussed.

  14. Type- and Subtype-Specific Influenza Forecast.

    PubMed

    Kandula, Sasikiran; Yang, Wan; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2017-03-01

    Prediction of the growth and decline of infectious disease incidence has advanced considerably in recent years. As these forecasts improve, their public health utility should increase, particularly as interventions are developed that make explicit use of forecast information. It is the task of the research community to increase the content and improve the accuracy of these infectious disease predictions. Presently, operational real-time forecasts of total influenza incidence are produced at the municipal and state level in the United States. These forecasts are generated using ensemble simulations depicting local influenza transmission dynamics, which have been optimized prior to forecast with observations of influenza incidence and data assimilation methods. Here, we explore whether forecasts targeted to predict influenza by type and subtype during 2003-2015 in the United States were more or less accurate than forecasts targeted to predict total influenza incidence. We found that forecasts separated by type/subtype generally produced more accurate predictions and, when summed, produced more accurate predictions of total influenza incidence. These findings indicate that monitoring influenza by type and subtype not only provides more detailed observational content but supports more accurate forecasting. More accurate forecasting can help officials better respond to and plan for current and future influenza activity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong.

    PubMed

    Yang, Wan; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lau, Eric H Y; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2015-07-01

    Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are able to predict irregular non-seasonal influenza epidemics, using either the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter or a modified particle filter in conjunction with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We applied these model-filter systems to retrospectively forecast influenza epidemics in Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 2013, including the 2009 pandemic. The forecast systems were able to forecast both the peak timing and peak magnitude for 44 epidemics in 16 years caused by individual influenza strains (i.e., seasonal influenza A(H1N1), pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B), as well as 19 aggregate epidemics caused by one or more of these influenza strains. Average forecast accuracies were 37% (for both peak timing and magnitude) at 1-3 week leads, and 51% (peak timing) and 50% (peak magnitude) at 0 lead. Forecast accuracy increased as the spread of a given forecast ensemble decreased; the forecast accuracy for peak timing (peak magnitude) increased up to 43% (45%) for H1N1, 93% (89%) for H3N2, and 53% (68%) for influenza B at 1-3 week leads. These findings suggest that accurate forecasts can be made at least 3 weeks in advance for subtropical and tropical regions.

  16. Forecasting Influenza Epidemics in Hong Kong

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Wan; Cowling, Benjamin J.; Lau, Eric H. Y.; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Recent advances in mathematical modeling and inference methodologies have enabled development of systems capable of forecasting seasonal influenza epidemics in temperate regions in real-time. However, in subtropical and tropical regions, influenza epidemics can occur throughout the year, making routine forecast of influenza more challenging. Here we develop and report forecast systems that are able to predict irregular non-seasonal influenza epidemics, using either the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter or a modified particle filter in conjunction with a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. We applied these model-filter systems to retrospectively forecast influenza epidemics in Hong Kong from January 1998 to December 2013, including the 2009 pandemic. The forecast systems were able to forecast both the peak timing and peak magnitude for 44 epidemics in 16 years caused by individual influenza strains (i.e., seasonal influenza A(H1N1), pandemic A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B), as well as 19 aggregate epidemics caused by one or more of these influenza strains. Average forecast accuracies were 37% (for both peak timing and magnitude) at 1-3 week leads, and 51% (peak timing) and 50% (peak magnitude) at 0 lead. Forecast accuracy increased as the spread of a given forecast ensemble decreased; the forecast accuracy for peak timing (peak magnitude) increased up to 43% (45%) for H1N1, 93% (89%) for H3N2, and 53% (68%) for influenza B at 1-3 week leads. These findings suggest that accurate forecasts can be made at least 3 weeks in advance for subtropical and tropical regions. PMID:26226185

  17. Airway exchange of highly soluble gases.

    PubMed

    Hlastala, Michael P; Powell, Frank L; Anderson, Joseph C

    2013-03-01

    Highly blood soluble gases exchange with the bronchial circulation in the airways. On inhalation, air absorbs highly soluble gases from the airway mucosa and equilibrates with the blood before reaching the alveoli. Highly soluble gas partial pressure is identical throughout all alveoli. At the end of exhalation the partial pressure of a highly soluble gas decreases from the alveolar level in the terminal bronchioles to the end-exhaled partial pressure at the mouth. A mathematical model simulated the airway exchange of four gases (methyl isobutyl ketone, acetone, ethanol, and propylene glycol monomethyl ether) that have high water and blood solubility. The impact of solubility on the relative distribution of airway exchange was studied. We conclude that an increase in water solubility shifts the distribution of gas exchange toward the mouth. Of the four gases studied, ethanol had the greatest decrease in partial pressure from the alveolus to the mouth at end exhalation. Single exhalation breath tests are inappropriate for estimating alveolar levels of highly soluble gases, particularly for ethanol.

  18. Airway exchange of highly soluble gases

    PubMed Central

    Powell, Frank L.; Anderson, Joseph C.

    2013-01-01

    Highly blood soluble gases exchange with the bronchial circulation in the airways. On inhalation, air absorbs highly soluble gases from the airway mucosa and equilibrates with the blood before reaching the alveoli. Highly soluble gas partial pressure is identical throughout all alveoli. At the end of exhalation the partial pressure of a highly soluble gas decreases from the alveolar level in the terminal bronchioles to the end-exhaled partial pressure at the mouth. A mathematical model simulated the airway exchange of four gases (methyl isobutyl ketone, acetone, ethanol, and propylene glycol monomethyl ether) that have high water and blood solubility. The impact of solubility on the relative distribution of airway exchange was studied. We conclude that an increase in water solubility shifts the distribution of gas exchange toward the mouth. Of the four gases studied, ethanol had the greatest decrease in partial pressure from the alveolus to the mouth at end exhalation. Single exhalation breath tests are inappropriate for estimating alveolar levels of highly soluble gases, particularly for ethanol. PMID:23305981

  19. Econometrics 101: forecasting demystified

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Crow, R.T.

    1980-05-01

    Forecasting by econometric modeling is described in a commonsense way which omits much of the technical jargon. A trend of continuous growth is no longer an adequate forecasting tool. Today's forecasters must consider rapid changes in price, policies, regulations, capital availability, and the cost of being wrong. A forecasting model is designed by identifying future influences on electricity purchases and quantifying their relationships to each other. A record is produced which can be evaluated and used to make corrections in the models. Residential consumption is used to illustrate how this works and to demonstrate how power consumption is also relatedmore » to the purchase and use of equipment. While models can quantify behavioral relationships, they cannot account for the impacts of non-price factors because of limited data. (DCK)« less

  20. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Treesearch

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  1. Forecasts for NOAA Marine Sanctuaries

    Science.gov Websites

    /Forecast The Gray's Reef Sea Turtle Satellite Tagging Project utilizes satellite transmitter tags to Synopsis/Forecast(0-20nm) Synopsis/Forecast(20-60nm) The Gray's Reef Sea Turtle Satellite Tagging Project utilizes satellite transmitter tags to monitor adult and juvenile loggerhead sea click image for more

  2. Gases as Idealized Lattices: A Rational Reconstruction of Students' Understanding of the Behavior of Gases.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Niaz, Mansoor

    2000-01-01

    Establishes a relationship between students' understanding of gases and its parallels in the history of science. Finds that college freshman students' alternative conceptions about gas behavior are resistant to change and recapitulate theories scientists held in the past, such as the Lattice Theory of Gases. (Contains 52 references.) (Author/WRM)

  3. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavers, David A.; Pappenberger, Florian; Richardson, David S.; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-11-01

    In winter, heavy precipitation and floods along the west coasts of midlatitude continents are largely caused by intense water vapor transport (integrated vapor transport (IVT)) within the atmospheric river of extratropical cyclones. This study builds on previous findings that showed that forecasts of IVT have higher predictability than precipitation, by applying and evaluating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for IVT in ensemble forecasts during three winters across Europe. We show that the IVT EFI is more able (than the precipitation EFI) to capture extreme precipitation in forecast week 2 during forecasts initialized in a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase; conversely, the precipitation EFI is better during the negative NAO phase and at shorter leads. An IVT EFI example for storm Desmond in December 2015 highlights its potential to identify upcoming hydrometeorological extremes, which may prove useful to the user and forecasting communities.

  4. Next-Day Earthquake Forecasts for California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, M. J.; Jackson, D. D.; Kagan, Y. Y.

    2008-12-01

    We implemented a daily forecast of m > 4 earthquakes for California in the format suitable for testing in community-based earthquake predictability experiments: Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) and the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The forecast is based on near-real time earthquake reports from the ANSS catalog above magnitude 2 and will be available online. The model used to generate the forecasts is based on the Epidemic-Type Earthquake Sequence (ETES) model, a stochastic model of clustered and triggered seismicity. Our particular implementation is based on the earlier work of Helmstetter et al. (2006, 2007), but we extended the forecast to all of Cali-fornia, use more data to calibrate the model and its parameters, and made some modifications. Our forecasts will compete against the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities (STEP) forecasts of Gersten-berger et al. (2005) and other models in the next-day testing class of the CSEP experiment in California. We illustrate our forecasts with examples and discuss preliminary results.

  5. Application and evaluation of scale dissolver treatments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fielder, G.D.

    1994-12-31

    In order to provide an improved basis for the design of barium sulfate scale dissolver treatments both laboratory testing and monitoring of field applications were carried out. The deleterious effects of mixing produced water with dissolver prior to contacting scale are shown. Increasing total dissolved solids (TDS) levels can reduce dissolution depending upon temperature. Precomplexation with divalent cations reduces the capacity of the dissolver to solubilize solid scales. Magnesium may adversely affect dissolver performance at elevated temperatures. Several oil and gas wells were closely monitored during initial flowback after treatment. Samples were collected on a frequent basis and analyzed formore » pH, dissolver content, chlorides and various cations. The resulting data were used to construct flowback profiles for evaluation of the treatments. Evidence of scale dissolution is presented. The presence of an incompatible flush brine was discovered in one case and possible reverse order of addition of preflush and dissolver in another. The importance of establishing and following treatment procedures is briefly discussed.« less

  6. Baseline and target values for regional and point PV power forecasts: Toward improved solar forecasting

    DOE PAGES

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri -Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; ...

    2015-11-10

    Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting allows utilities to reliably utilize solar resources on their systems. However, to truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods provide, it is important to develop a methodology for determining baseline and target values for the accuracy of solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims at developing a framework to derive baseline and target values for a suite of generally applicable, value-based, and custom-designed solar forecasting metrics. The work was informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based onmore » state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models in combination with a radiative transfer model. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of PV power output. The proposed reserve-based methodology is a reasonable and practical approach that can be used to assess the economic benefits gained from improvements in accuracy of solar forecasting. Lastly, the financial baseline and targets can be translated back to forecasting accuracy metrics and requirements, which will guide research on solar forecasting improvements toward the areas that are most beneficial to power systems operations.« less

  7. CADDIS Volume 2. Sources, Stressors and Responses: Dissolved Oxygen

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Introduction to the dissolved oxygen module, when to list dissolved oxygen as a candidate cause, ways to measure dissolved oxygen, simple and detailed conceptual model diagrams for dissolved oxygen, references for the dissolved oxygen module.

  8. An Assessment of the Subseasonal Forecast Performance in the Extended Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinsky, E.; Zhu, Y.; Li, W.; Guan, H.; Melhauser, C.

    2017-12-01

    Optimal forecast quality is crucial for the preservation of life and property. Improving monthly forecast performance over both the tropics and extra-tropics requires attention to various physical aspects such as the representation of the underlying SST, model physics and the representation of the model physics uncertainty for an ensemble forecast system. This work focuses on the impact of stochastic physics, SST and the convection scheme on forecast performance for the sub-seasonal scale over the tropics and extra-tropics with emphasis on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A 2-year period is evaluated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Three experiments with different configurations than the operational GEFS were performed to illustrate the impact of the stochastic physics, SST and convection scheme. These experiments are compared against a control experiment (CTL) which consists of the operational GEFS but its integration is extended from 16 to 35 days. The three configurations are: 1) SPs, which uses a Stochastically Perturbed Physics Tendencies (SPPT), Stochastic Perturbed Humidity (SHUM) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB); 2) SPs+SST_bc, which uses a combination of SPs and a bias-corrected forecast SST from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2); and 3) SPs+SST_bc+SA_CV, which combines SPs, a bias-corrected forecast SST and a scale aware convection scheme. When comparing to the CTL experiment, SPs shows substantial improvement. The MJO skill has improved by about 4 lead days during the 2-year period. Improvement is also seen over the extra-tropics due to the updated stochastic physics, where there is a 3.1% and a 4.2% improvement during weeks 3 and 4 over the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere, respectively. Improvement is also seen when the bias-corrected CFSv2 SST is combined with SPs. Additionally, forecast performance enhances when the scale aware

  9. Diverging effects of isotopic fractionation upon molecular diffusion of noble gases in water: mechanistic insights through ab initio molecular dynamics simulations.

    PubMed

    Pinto de Magalhães, Halua; Brennwald, Matthias S; Kipfer, Rolf

    2017-03-22

    Atmospheric noble gases are routinely used as natural tracers to analyze gas transfer processes in aquatic systems. Their isotopic ratios can be employed to discriminate between different physical transport mechanisms by comparison to the unfractionated atmospheric isotope composition. In many applications of aquatic systems molecular diffusion was thought to cause a mass dependent fractionation of noble gases and their isotopes according to the square root ratio of their masses. However, recent experiments focusing on isotopic fractionation within a single element challenged this broadly accepted assumption. The determined fractionation factors of Ne, Ar, Kr and Xe isotopes revealed that only Ar follows the prediction of the so-called square root relation, whereas within the Ne, Kr and Xe elements no mass-dependence was found. The reason for this unexpected divergence of Ar is not yet understood. The aim of our computational exercise is to establish the molecular-resolved mechanisms behind molecular diffusion of noble gases in water. We make the hypothesis that weak intermolecular interactions are relevant for the dynamical properties of noble gases dissolved in water. Therefore, we used ab initio molecular dynamics to explicitly account for the electronic degrees of freedom. Depending on the size and polarizability of the hydrophobic particles such as noble gases, their motion in dense and polar liquids like water is subject to different diffusive regimes: the inter-cavity hopping mechanism of small particles (He, Ne) breaks down if a critical particle size achieved. For the case of large particles (Kr, Xe), the motion through the water solvent is governed by mass-independent viscous friction leading to hydrodynamical diffusion. Finally, Ar falls in between the two diffusive regimes, where particle dispersion is propagated at the molecular collision time scale of the surrounding water molecules.

  10. MRI using hyperpolarized noble gases.

    PubMed

    Kauczor, H; Surkau, R; Roberts, T

    1998-01-01

    The aim of this study was to review the physical basis of MRI using hyperpolarized noble gases as well as the present status of preclinical and clinical applications. Non-radioactive noble gases with a nuclear spin 1/2 (He-3, Xe-129) can be hyperpolarized by optical pumping. Polarization is transferred from circularly polarized laser light to the noble-gas atoms via alkali-metal vapors (spin exchange) or metastable atoms (metastability exchange). Hyperpolarization results in a non-equilibrium polarization five orders of magnitude higher than the Boltzmann equilibrium compensating for the several 1000 times lower density of noble gases as compared with liquid state hydrogen concentrations in tissue and allows for short imaging times. Hyperpolarization can be stored sufficiently long (3 h to 6 days) to allow for transport and application. Magnetic resonance systems require a broadband radio-frequency system - which is generally available for MR spectroscopy - and dedicated coils. The hyperpolarized gases are administered as inhalative "contrast agents" allowing for imaging of the airways and airspaces. Besides the known anesthetic effect of xenon, no adverse effects are observed in volunteers or patients. Pulse sequences are optimized to effectively use the non-renewable hyperpolarization before it decays or is destroyed, using fast low-flip-angles strategies to allow for dynamic/breath-hold imaging of highly diffusible (He) or soluble (Xe) gases with in vivo T1-times well below 1 min. Since helium is not absorbed in considerable amounts, its application is restricted to the lung. Xe-129 is also under investigation for imaging of white matter disease and functional studies of cerebral perfusion. Magnetic resonance imaging using hyperpolarized gases is emerging as a technical challenge and opportunity for the MR community. Preliminary experience suggests potential for functional imaging of pulmonary ventilation and cerebral perfusion.

  11. Real-time eruption forecasting using the material Failure Forecast Method with a Bayesian approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boué, A.; Lesage, P.; Cortés, G.; Valette, B.; Reyes-Dávila, G.

    2015-04-01

    Many attempts for deterministic forecasting of eruptions and landslides have been performed using the material Failure Forecast Method (FFM). This method consists in adjusting an empirical power law on precursory patterns of seismicity or deformation. Until now, most of the studies have presented hindsight forecasts based on complete time series of precursors and do not evaluate the ability of the method for carrying out real-time forecasting with partial precursory sequences. In this study, we present a rigorous approach of the FFM designed for real-time applications on volcano-seismic precursors. We use a Bayesian approach based on the FFM theory and an automatic classification of seismic events. The probability distributions of the data deduced from the performance of this classification are used as input. As output, it provides the probability of the forecast time at each observation time before the eruption. The spread of the a posteriori probability density function of the prediction time and its stability with respect to the observation time are used as criteria to evaluate the reliability of the forecast. We test the method on precursory accelerations of long-period seismicity prior to vulcanian explosions at Volcán de Colima (Mexico). For explosions preceded by a single phase of seismic acceleration, we obtain accurate and reliable forecasts using approximately 80% of the whole precursory sequence. It is, however, more difficult to apply the method to multiple acceleration patterns.

  12. Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

  13. Traffic forecasting report : 2007.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2008-05-01

    This is the sixth edition of the Traffic Forecasting Report (TFR). This edition of the TFR contains the latest (predominantly 2007) forecasting/modeling data as follows: : Functional class average traffic volume growth rates and trends : Vehi...

  14. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    PubMed Central

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  15. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts.

    PubMed

    Weisheimer, A; Palmer, T N

    2014-07-06

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that 'goodness' should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a '5' should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of 'goodness' rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching '5' across all regions and variables in 30 years time.

  16. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  17. Landfill gases and some effects on vegetation

    Treesearch

    Franklin B. Flower; Ida A. Leone; Edward F. Gilman; John J. Arthur

    1977-01-01

    Gases moving from refuse landfills through soil were studied in New Jersey. The gases, products of anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in the refuse, caused injury and death of peach trees, ornamentals, and commercial farm crops, and create possible hazards to life and property because of the entrance of combustible gases into residences. Remedial measures are...

  18. Noble Gases Trace Earth's Subducted Water Flux

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smye, A.; Jackson, C.; Konrad-Schmolke, M.; Parman, S. W.; Ballentine, C. J.

    2016-12-01

    Volatile elements are transported from Earth's surface reservoirs back into the mantle during subduction of oceanic lithosphere [e.g. 1]. Here, we investigate the degree to which the fate of slab-bound noble gases and water are linked through the subduction process. Both water and noble gases are soluble in ring-structured minerals, such as amphibole, that are common constituents of subducted oceanic lithosphere. Heating and burial during subduction liberates noble gases and water from minerals through a combination of diffusion and dissolution. Combining a kinetic model, parameterized for noble gas fractionation in amphibole [2], with thermodynamic phase equilibria calculations, we quantify the effect of subduction dehydration on the elemental composition of slab-bound noble gases. Results show that post-arc slab water and noble gas fluxes are highly correlated. Hot subduction zones, which likely dominate over geologic history, efficiently remove noble gases and water from the down-going slab; furthermore, kinetic fractionation of noble gases is predicted to occur beneath the forearc. Conversely, hydrated portions of slab mantle in cold subduction zones transport noble gases and water to depths exceeding 200 km. Preservation of seawater-like abundances of Ar, Kr and Xe in the convecting mantle [1] implies that recycling of noble gases and water occurred during cold subduction and that the subduction efficiency of these volatile elements has increased over geological time, driven by secular cooling of the mantle. [1] Holland, G. and Ballentine, C. (2006). Nature 441, 186-191. [2] Jackson et al. (2013). Nat.Geosci. 6, 562-565.

  19. Using Seasonal Forecasts for medium-term Electricity Demand Forecasting on Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Felice, M.; Alessandri, A.; Ruti, P.

    2012-12-01

    Electricity demand forecast is an essential tool for energy management and operation scheduling for electric utilities. In power engineering, medium-term forecasting is defined as the prediction up to 12 months ahead, and commonly is performed considering weather climatology and not actual forecasts. This work aims to analyze the predictability of electricity demand on seasonal time scale, considering seasonal samples, i.e. average on three months. Electricity demand data has been provided by Italian Transmission System Operator for eight different geographical areas, in Fig. 1 for each area is shown the average yearly demand anomaly for each season. This work uses data for each summer during 1990-2010 and all the datasets have been pre-processed to remove trends and reduce the influence of calendar and economic effects. The choice of focusing this research on the summer period is due to the critical peaks of demand that power grid is subject during hot days. Weather data have been included considering observations provided by ECMWF ERA-INTERIM reanalyses. Primitive variables (2-metres temperature, pressure, etc) and derived variables (cooling and heating degree days) have been averaged for summer months. A particular attention has been given to the influence of persistence of positive temperature anomaly and a derived variable which count the number of consecutive days of extreme-days has been used. Electricity demand forecast has been performed using linear and nonlinear regression methods and stepwise model selection procedures have been used to perform a variable selection with respect to performance measures. Significance tests on multiple linear regression showed the importance of cooling degree days during summer in the North-East and South of Italy with an increase of statistical significance after 2003, a result consistent with the diffusion of air condition and ventilation equipment in the last decade. Finally, using seasonal climate forecasts we evaluate

  20. Method for dissolving plutonium dioxide

    DOEpatents

    Tallent, Othar K.

    1978-01-01

    The fluoride-catalyzed, non-oxidative dissolution of plutonium dioxide in HNO.sub.3 is significantly enhanced in rate by oxidizing dissolved plutonium ions. It is believed that the oxidation of dissolved plutonium releases fluoride ions from a soluble plutonium-fluoride complex for further catalytic action.

  1. Method and apparatus for afterburning flue gases

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sikander, A.; Bjorkman, A.; Jonsson, G.

    1984-11-13

    A method of afterburning flue gases comprises passing impure gases from, for example, an incineration plant such as a destructor, process furnace, crematory furnace or heating boiler, through a burner in an afterburner where through enforced mixture with combustion gas they undergo complete combustion. The combustion gas, depending on the composition of the flue gases, may comprise air or oxygen or either mixed with petroleum gas. In apparatus for implementation of the method, the flue gases and the combustion gas are introduced into a burner which blows the gas mixture into a flame bowl where temperatures in the range ofmore » from 1,500/sup 0/-2,000/sup 0/ C. can be achieved. In one embodiment, the burner produces a conical basket-shaped flame in which the flue gases undergo complete combustion.« less

  2. Computers and Technological Forecasting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martino, Joseph P.

    1971-01-01

    Forecasting is becoming increasingly automated, thanks in large measure to the computer. It is now possible for a forecaster to submit his data to a computation center and call for the appropriate program. (No knowledge of statistics is required.) (Author)

  3. Performance assessment of a Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS) for real-time flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biondi, D.; De Luca, D. L.

    2013-02-01

    SummaryThe paper evaluates, for a number of flood events, the performance of a Bayesian Forecasting System (BFS), with the aim of evaluating total uncertainty in real-time flood forecasting. The predictive uncertainty of future streamflow is estimated through the Bayesian integration of two separate processors. The former evaluates the propagation of input uncertainty on simulated river discharge, the latter computes the hydrological uncertainty of actual river discharge associated with all other possible sources of error. A stochastic model and a distributed rainfall-runoff model were assumed, respectively, for rainfall and hydrological response simulations. A case study was carried out for a small basin in the Calabria region (southern Italy). The performance assessment of the BFS was performed with adequate verification tools suited for probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables such as streamflow. Graphical tools and scalar metrics were used to evaluate several attributes of the forecast quality of the entire time-varying predictive distributions: calibration, sharpness, accuracy, and continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Besides the overall system, which incorporates both sources of uncertainty, other hypotheses resulting from the BFS properties were examined, corresponding to (i) a perfect hydrological model; (ii) a non-informative rainfall forecast for predicting streamflow; and (iii) a perfect input forecast. The results emphasize the importance of using different diagnostic approaches to perform comprehensive analyses of predictive distributions, to arrive at a multifaceted view of the attributes of the prediction. For the case study, the selected criteria revealed the interaction of the different sources of error, in particular the crucial role of the hydrological uncertainty processor when compensating, at the cost of wider forecast intervals, for the unreliable and biased predictive distribution resulting from the Precipitation Uncertainty

  4. Using Heliospheric Imaging for Storm Forecasting - SMEI CME Observations as a Tool for Operational Forecasting at AFWA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, D. F.; Johnston, J. C.; Fry, C. D.; Kuchar, T. A.

    2008-12-01

    Observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from heliospheric imagers such as the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) can lead to significant improvements in operational space weather forecasting. We are working with the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ingest SMEI all-sky imagery with appropriate tools to help forecasters improve their operational space weather forecasts. We describe two approaches: 1) Near- real time analysis of propagating CMEs from SMEI images alone combined with near-Sun observations of CME onsets and, 2) Using these calculations of speed as a mid-course correction to the HAFv2 solar wind model forecasts. HAFv2 became operational at AFWA in late 2006. The objective is to determine a set of practical procedures that the duty forecaster can use to update or correct a solar wind forecast using heliospheric imager data. SMEI observations can be used inclusively to make storm forecasts, as recently discussed in Webb et al. (Space Weather, in press, 2008). We have developed a point-and-click analysis tool for use with SMEI images and are working with AFWA to ensure that timely SMEI images are available for analyses. When a frontside solar eruption occurs, especially if within about 45 deg. of Sun center, a forecaster checks for an associated CME observed by a coronagraph within an appropriate time window. If found, especially if the CME is a halo type, the forecaster checks SMEI observations about a day later, depending on the apparent initial CME speed, for possibly associated CMEs. If one is found, then the leading edge is measured over several successive frames and an elongation-time plot constructed. A minimum of three data points, i.e., over 3-4 orbits or about 6 hours, are necessary for such a plot. Using the solar source location and onset time of the CME from, e.g., SOHO observations, and assuming radial propagation, a distance-time relation is calculated and extrapolated to the 1 AU distance. As shown by Webb et al., the storm onset time

  5. Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: a skill-persistence rule

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Yishuai; Rong, Xinyao; Liu, Zhengyu

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the factors relationship between the forecast skills for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill for sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further proved using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but could be distorted by sampling errors and non-AR1 processes. This study suggests that the so called "perfect skill" is model dependent and cannot serve as an accurate estimate of the true upper limit of real world prediction skill, unless the model can capture at least the persistence property of the observation.

  6. Visualization of ocean forecast in BYTHOS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuk, E.; Zodiatis, G.; Nikolaidis, A.; Stylianou, S.; Karaolia, A.

    2016-08-01

    The Cyprus Oceanography Center has been constantly searching for new ideas for developing and implementing innovative methods and new developments concerning the use of Information Systems in Oceanography, to suit both the Center's monitoring and forecasting products. Within the frame of this scope two major online managing and visualizing data systems have been developed and utilized, those of CYCOFOS and BYTHOS. The Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System - CYCOFOS provides a variety of operational predictions such as ultra high, high and medium resolution ocean forecasts in the Levantine Basin, offshore and coastal sea state forecasts in the Mediterranean and Black Sea, tide forecasting in the Mediterranean, ocean remote sensing in the Eastern Mediterranean and coastal and offshore monitoring. As a rich internet application, BYTHOS enables scientists to search, visualize and download oceanographic data online and in real time. The recent improving of BYTHOS system is the extension with access and visualization of CYCOFOS data and overlay forecast fields and observing data. The CYCOFOS data are stored at OPENDAP Server in netCDF format. To search, process and visualize it the php and python scripts were developed. Data visualization is achieved through Mapserver. The BYTHOS forecast access interface allows to search necessary forecasting field by recognizing type, parameter, region, level and time. Also it provides opportunity to overlay different forecast and observing data that can be used for complex analyze of sea basin aspects.

  7. Baseline and Target Values for PV Forecasts: Toward Improved Solar Power Forecasting: Preprint

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan

    2015-08-05

    Accurate solar power forecasting allows utilities to get the most out of the solar resources on their systems. To truly measure the improvements that any new solar forecasting methods can provide, it is important to first develop (or determine) baseline and target solar forecasting at different spatial and temporal scales. This paper aims to develop baseline and target values for solar forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reductionmore » in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output. forecasting metrics. These were informed by close collaboration with utility and independent system operator partners. The baseline values are established based on state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and persistence models. The target values are determined based on the reduction in the amount of reserves that must be held to accommodate the uncertainty of solar power output.« less

  8. Improvement of forecast skill for severe weather by merging radar-based extrapolation and storm-scale NWP corrected forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Gaili; Wong, Wai-Kin; Hong, Yang; Liu, Liping; Dong, Jili; Xue, Ming

    2015-03-01

    The primary objective of this study is to improve the performance of deterministic high resolution rainfall forecasts caused by severe storms by merging an extrapolation radar-based scheme with a storm-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. Effectiveness of Multi-scale Tracking and Forecasting Radar Echoes (MTaRE) model was compared with that of a storm-scale NWP model named Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) for forecasting a violent tornado event that developed over parts of western and much of central Oklahoma on May 24, 2011. Then the bias corrections were performed to improve the forecast accuracy of ARPS forecasts. Finally, the corrected ARPS forecast and radar-based extrapolation were optimally merged by using a hyperbolic tangent weight scheme. The comparison of forecast skill between MTaRE and ARPS in high spatial resolution of 0.01° × 0.01° and high temporal resolution of 5 min showed that MTaRE outperformed ARPS in terms of index of agreement and mean absolute error (MAE). MTaRE had a better Critical Success Index (CSI) for less than 20-min lead times and was comparable to ARPS for 20- to 50-min lead times, while ARPS had a better CSI for more than 50-min lead times. Bias correction significantly improved ARPS forecasts in terms of MAE and index of agreement, although the CSI of corrected ARPS forecasts was similar to that of the uncorrected ARPS forecasts. Moreover, optimally merging results using hyperbolic tangent weight scheme further improved the forecast accuracy and became more stable.

  9. Weather Forecasting Systems and Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mecikalski, John (Inventor); MacKenzie, Wayne M., Jr. (Inventor); Walker, John Robert (Inventor)

    2014-01-01

    A weather forecasting system has weather forecasting logic that receives raw image data from a satellite. The raw image data has values indicative of light and radiance data from the Earth as measured by the satellite, and the weather forecasting logic processes such data to identify cumulus clouds within the satellite images. For each identified cumulus cloud, the weather forecasting logic applies interest field tests to determine a score indicating the likelihood of the cumulus cloud forming precipitation and/or lightning in the future within a certain time period. Based on such scores, the weather forecasting logic predicts in which geographic regions the identified cumulus clouds will produce precipitation and/or lighting within during the time period. Such predictions may then be used to provide a weather map thereby providing users with a graphical illustration of the areas predicted to be affected by precipitation within the time period.

  10. Forecasting peaks of seasonal influenza epidemics.

    PubMed

    Nsoesie, Elaine; Mararthe, Madhav; Brownstein, John

    2013-06-21

    We present a framework for near real-time forecast of influenza epidemics using a simulation optimization approach. The method combines an individual-based model and a simple root finding optimization method for parameter estimation and forecasting. In this study, retrospective forecasts were generated for seasonal influenza epidemics using web-based estimates of influenza activity from Google Flu Trends for 2004-2005, 2007-2008 and 2012-2013 flu seasons. In some cases, the peak could be forecasted 5-6 weeks ahead. This study adds to existing resources for influenza forecasting and the proposed method can be used in conjunction with other approaches in an ensemble framework.

  11. Rapid analysis of dissolved methane, ethylene, acetylene and ethane using partition coefficients and headspace-gas chromatography.

    PubMed

    Lomond, Jasmine S; Tong, Anthony Z

    2011-01-01

    Analysis of dissolved methane, ethylene, acetylene, and ethane in water is crucial in evaluating anaerobic activity and investigating the sources of hydrocarbon contamination in aquatic environments. A rapid chromatographic method based on phase equilibrium between water and its headspace is developed for these analytes. The new method requires minimal sample preparation and no special apparatus except those associated with gas chromatography. Instead of Henry's Law used in similar previous studies, partition coefficients are used for the first time to calculate concentrations of dissolved hydrocarbon gases, which considerably simplifies the calculation involved. Partition coefficients are determined to be 128, 27.9, 1.28, and 96.3 at 30°C for methane, ethylene, acetylene, and ethane, respectively. It was discovered that the volume ratio of gas-to-liquid phase is critical to the accuracy of the measurements. The method performance can be readily improved by reducing the volume ratio of the two phases. Method validation shows less than 6% variation in accuracy and precision except at low levels of methane where interferences occur in ambient air. Method detection limits are determined to be in the low ng/L range for all analytes. The performance of the method is further tested using environmental samples collected from various sites in Nova Scotia.

  12. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public-Private Partnership Addressing Wind Energy Forecast Needs

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wilczak, James M.; Finley, Cathy; Freedman, Jeff

    The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) is a public-private research program, the goals of which are to improve the accuracy of short-term (0-6 hr) wind power forecasts for the wind energy industry and then to quantify the economic savings that accrue from more efficient integration of wind energy into the electrical grid. WFIP was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), with partners that include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private forecasting companies (WindLogics and AWS Truepower), DOE national laboratories, grid operators, and universities. WFIP employed two avenues for improving wind power forecasts: first, through the collectionmore » of special observations to be assimilated into forecast models to improve model initial conditions; and second, by upgrading NWP forecast models and ensembles. The new observations were collected during concurrent year-long field campaigns in two high wind energy resource areas of the U.S. (the upper Great Plains, and Texas), and included 12 wind profiling radars, 12 sodars, 184 instrumented tall towers and over 400 nacelle anemometers (provided by private industry), lidar, and several surface flux stations. Results demonstrate that a substantial improvement of up to 14% relative reduction in power root mean square error (RMSE) was achieved from the combination of improved NOAA numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and assimilation of the new observations. Data denial experiments run over select periods of time demonstrate that up to a 6% relative improvement came from the new observations. The use of ensemble forecasts produced even larger forecast improvements. Based on the success of WFIP, DOE is planning follow-on field programs.« less

  13. Forecasting Ocean Chlorophyll in the Equatorial Pacific.

    PubMed

    Rousseaux, Cecile S; Gregg, Watson W

    2017-01-01

    Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Niño event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Niño. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant ( p < 0.05) for forecast at 1-month ( R = 0.33), 8-month ( R = 0.42) and 9-month ( R = 0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 μg chl L -1 for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 μg chl L -1 for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 μg chl L -1 ) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 μg chl L -1 ). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Niño events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

  14. Origins of geothermal gases at Yellowstone

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lowenstern, Jacob B.; Bergfeld, Deborah; Evans, William C.; Hunt, Andrew G.

    2015-01-01

    Gas emissions at the Yellowstone Plateau Volcanic Field (YPVF) reflect open-system mixing of gas species originating from diverse rock types, magmas, and crustal fluids, all combined in varying proportions at different thermal areas. Gases are not necessarily in chemical equilibrium with the waters through which they vent, especially in acid sulfate terrain where bubbles stream through stagnant acid water. Gases in adjacent thermal areas often can be differentiated by isotopic and gas ratios, and cannot be tied to one another solely by shallow processes such as boiling-induced fractionation of a parent liquid. Instead, they inherit unique gas ratios (e.g., CH4/He) from the dominant rock reservoirs where they originate, some of which underlie the Quaternary volcanic rocks. Steam/gas ratios (essentially H2O/CO2) of Yellowstone fumaroles correlate with Ar/He and N2/CO2, strongly suggesting that H2O/CO2 is controlled by addition of steam boiled from water rich in atmospheric gases. Moreover, H2O/CO2 varies systematically with geographic location, such that boiling is more enhanced in some areas than others. The δ13C and 3He/CO2 of gases reflect a dominant mantle origin for CO2 in Yellowstone gas. The mantle signature is most evident at Mud Volcano, which hosts gases with the lowest H2O/CO2, lowest CH4 concentrations and highest He isotope ratios (~16Ra), consistent with either a young subsurface intrusion or less input of crustal and meteoric gas than any other location at Yellowstone. Across the YPVF, He isotope ratios (3He/4He) inversely vary with He concentrations, and reflect varied amounts of long- stored, radiogenic He added to the magmatic endmember within the crust. Similarly, addition of CH4 from organic-rich sediments is common in the eastern thermal areas at Yellowstone. Overall, Yellowstone gases reflect addition of deep, high-temperature magmatic gas (CO2-rich), lower-temperatures crustal gases (4He- and CH4-bearing), and those gases (N2, Ne, Ar) added

  15. Dissolved greenhouse gases (nitrous oxide and methane) associated with the natural iron-fertilized Kerguelen region (KEOPS 2 cruise) in the Southern Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farías, L.; Florez-Leiva, L.; Besoain, V.; Fernández, C.

    2014-08-01

    The concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) like nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) were measured in the Kerguelen Plateau Region (KPR), an area with annual microalgal bloom caused by natural Fe fertilization, which may stimulate microbes involved in GHG cycling. This study was carried out during the KEOPS 2 cruise during the austral spring of 2011. Two transects were sampled along and across the KRP, the north-south (N-S) transect (46-51° S, 72° E meridian) and the west-east (W-E) transect (66-75° E, 48.3° S latitude), both associated with the presence of a plateau, polar fronts and other mesoscale features. The W-E transect had N2O levels ranging from equilibrium (105%) to light supersaturation (120%) with respect to the atmosphere. CH4 levels fluctuated dramatically, with intense supersaturations (120-970%) in areas close to the coastal waters of Kerguelen Island and in the polar front (PF). There, Fe and nutrient fertilization seem to promote high total chlorophyll a (TChl a) levels. The distribution of both gases was more homogenous in the N-S transect, but CH4 peaked at southeastern stations of the KPR (A3 stations), where phytoplankton bloom was observed. Both gases responded significantly to the patchy distribution of particulate matter as Chl a, stimulated by Fe supply by complex mesoscale circulation. While CH4 appears to be produced mainly at the pycnoclines, N2O seems to be consumed superficially. Air-sea fluxes for N2O (from -10.5 to 8.65, mean 1.71 μmol m-2d-1), and for CH4 (from 0.32 to 38.1, mean 10.07 μmol m-2d-1) reflected sink and source behavior for N2O and source behavior for CH4, with considerable variability associated with a highly fluctuating wind regime and, in the case of CH4, due to its high superficial levels that had not been reported before in the Southern Ocean and may be caused by an intense microbial CH4 cycling.

  16. Forecasting Occurrences of Activities.

    PubMed

    Minor, Bryan; Cook, Diane J

    2017-07-01

    While activity recognition has been shown to be valuable for pervasive computing applications, less work has focused on techniques for forecasting the future occurrence of activities. We present an activity forecasting method to predict the time that will elapse until a target activity occurs. This method generates an activity forecast using a regression tree classifier and offers an advantage over sequence prediction methods in that it can predict expected time until an activity occurs. We evaluate this algorithm on real-world smart home datasets and provide evidence that our proposed approach is most effective at predicting activity timings.

  17. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza.

    PubMed

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

    2012-12-11

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003-2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza.

  18. Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza

    PubMed Central

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia

    2012-01-01

    Influenza recurs seasonally in temperate regions of the world; however, our ability to predict the timing, duration, and magnitude of local seasonal outbreaks of influenza remains limited. Here we develop a framework for initializing real-time forecasts of seasonal influenza outbreaks, using a data assimilation technique commonly applied in numerical weather prediction. The availability of real-time, web-based estimates of local influenza infection rates makes this type of quantitative forecasting possible. Retrospective ensemble forecasts are generated on a weekly basis following assimilation of these web-based estimates for the 2003–2008 influenza seasons in New York City. The findings indicate that real-time skillful predictions of peak timing can be made more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak. In addition, confidence in those predictions can be inferred from the spread of the forecast ensemble. This work represents an initial step in the development of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal influenza. PMID:23184969

  19. Should we use seasonnal meteorological ensemble forecasts for hydrological forecasting? A case study for nordic watersheds in Canada.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert; Guay, Catherine

    2017-04-01

    Hydro-electricity is a major source of energy for many countries throughout the world, including Canada. Long lead-time streamflow forecasts are all the more valuable as they help decision making and dam management. Different techniques exist for long-term hydrological forecasting. Perhaps the most well-known is 'Extended Streamflow Prediction' (ESP), which considers past meteorological scenarios as possible, often equiprobable, future scenarios. In the ESP framework, those past-observed meteorological scenarios (climatology) are used in turn as the inputs of a chosen hydrological model to produce ensemble forecasts (one member corresponding to each year in the available database). Many hydropower companies, including Hydro-Québec (province of Quebec, Canada) use variants of the above described ESP system operationally for long-term operation planning. The ESP system accounts for the hydrological initial conditions and for the natural variability of the meteorological variables. However, it cannot consider the current initial state of the atmosphere. Climate models can help remedy this drawback. In the context of a changing climate, dynamical forecasts issued from climate models seem to be an interesting avenue to improve upon the ESP method and could help hydropower companies to adapt their management practices to an evolving climate. Long-range forecasts from climate models can also be helpful for water management at locations where records of past meteorological conditions are short or nonexistent. In this study, we compare 7-month hydrological forecasts obtained from climate model outputs to an ESP system. The ESP system mimics the one used operationally at Hydro-Québec. The dynamical climate forecasts are produced by the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System4. Forecasts quality is assessed using numerical scores such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Ignorance score and also graphical tools such as the

  20. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    PubMed

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2018-03-01

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Forecasting volcanic eruptions and other material failure phenomena: An evaluation of the failure forecast method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Andrew F.; Naylor, Mark; Heap, Michael J.; Main, Ian G.

    2011-08-01

    Power-law accelerations in the mean rate of strain, earthquakes and other precursors have been widely reported prior to material failure phenomena, including volcanic eruptions, landslides and laboratory deformation experiments, as predicted by several theoretical models. The Failure Forecast Method (FFM), which linearizes the power-law trend, has been routinely used to forecast the failure time in retrospective analyses; however, its performance has never been formally evaluated. Here we use synthetic and real data, recorded in laboratory brittle creep experiments and at volcanoes, to show that the assumptions of the FFM are inconsistent with the error structure of the data, leading to biased and imprecise forecasts. We show that a Generalized Linear Model method provides higher-quality forecasts that converge more accurately to the eventual failure time, accounting for the appropriate error distributions. This approach should be employed in place of the FFM to provide reliable quantitative forecasts and estimate their associated uncertainties.

  2. 46 CFR 147.60 - Compressed gases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Compressed gases. 147.60 Section 147.60 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) DANGEROUS CARGOES HAZARDOUS SHIPS' STORES Stowage and Other Special Requirements for Particular Materials § 147.60 Compressed gases. (a) Cylinder requirements...

  3. 46 CFR 147.60 - Compressed gases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Compressed gases. 147.60 Section 147.60 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) DANGEROUS CARGOES HAZARDOUS SHIPS' STORES Stowage and Other Special Requirements for Particular Materials § 147.60 Compressed gases. (a) Cylinder requirements...

  4. 46 CFR 147.60 - Compressed gases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Compressed gases. 147.60 Section 147.60 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) DANGEROUS CARGOES HAZARDOUS SHIPS' STORES Stowage and Other Special Requirements for Particular Materials § 147.60 Compressed gases. (a) Cylinder requirements...

  5. 46 CFR 147.60 - Compressed gases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Compressed gases. 147.60 Section 147.60 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) DANGEROUS CARGOES HAZARDOUS SHIPS' STORES Stowage and Other Special Requirements for Particular Materials § 147.60 Compressed gases. (a) Cylinder requirements...

  6. Recognizing and Dealing with Dangerous Gases.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bove, Robert A.

    1978-01-01

    When handling hazardous gases, it is necessary to know their properties, precautions that can be taken to protect workers, and proper first aid. This article gives everyday rules for handling gas cylinders, and a brief first aid guide for 12 common toxic gases and vapors. (BB)

  7. NASA Products to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lough, G.; Zell, E.; Engel-Cox, J.; Fungard, Y.; Jedlovec, G.; Stackhouse, P.; Homer, R.; Biley, S.

    2012-01-01

    Existing energy load forecasting tools rely upon historical load and forecasted weather to predict load within energy company service areas. The shortcomings of load forecasts are often the result of weather forecasts that are not at a fine enough spatial or temporal resolution to capture local-scale weather events. This project aims to improve the performance of load forecasting tools through the integration of high-resolution, weather-related NASA Earth Science Data, such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Three companies are participating in operational testing one natural gas company, and two electric providers. Operational results comparing load forecasts with and without NASA weather forecasts have been generated since March 2010. We have worked with end users at the three companies to refine selection of weather forecast information and optimize load forecast model performance. The project will conclude in 2012 with transitioning documented improvements from the inclusion of NASA forecasts for sustained use by energy utilities nationwide in a variety of load forecasting tools. In addition, Battelle has consulted with energy companies nationwide to document their information needs for long-term planning, in light of climate change and regulatory impacts.

  8. Affective Forecasting and Self-Rated Symptoms of Depression, Anxiety, and Hypomania: Evidence for a Dysphoric Forecasting Bias

    PubMed Central

    Hoerger, Michael; Quirk, Stuart W.; Chapman, Benjamin P.; Duberstein, Paul R.

    2011-01-01

    Emerging research has examined individual differences in affective forecasting; however, we are aware of no published study to date linking psychopathology symptoms to affective forecasting problems. Pitting cognitive theory against depressive realism theory, we examined whether dysphoria was associated with negatively biased affective forecasts or greater accuracy. Participants (n = 325) supplied predicted and actual emotional reactions for three days surrounding an emotionally-evocative relational event, Valentine’s Day. Predictions were made a month prior to the holiday. Consistent with cognitive theory, we found evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias – the tendency of individuals in dysphoric states to overpredict negative emotional reactions to future events. The dysphoric forecasting bias was robust across ratings of positive and negative affect, forecasts for pleasant and unpleasant scenarios, continuous and categorical operationalizations of dysphoria, and three time points of observation. Similar biases were not observed in analyses examining the independent effects of anxiety and hypomania. Findings provide empirical evidence for the long assumed influence of depressive symptoms on future expectations. The present investigation has implications for affective forecasting studies examining information processing constructs, decision making, and broader domains of psychopathology. PMID:22397734

  9. Affective forecasting and self-rated symptoms of depression, anxiety, and hypomania: evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias.

    PubMed

    Hoerger, Michael; Quirk, Stuart W; Chapman, Benjamin P; Duberstein, Paul R

    2012-01-01

    Emerging research has examined individual differences in affective forecasting; however, we are aware of no published study to date linking psychopathology symptoms to affective forecasting problems. Pitting cognitive theory against depressive realism theory, we examined whether dysphoria was associated with negatively biased affective forecasts or greater accuracy. Participants (n=325) supplied predicted and actual emotional reactions for three days surrounding an emotionally evocative relational event, Valentine's Day. Predictions were made a month prior to the holiday. Consistent with cognitive theory, we found evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias-the tendency of individuals in dysphoric states to overpredict negative emotional reactions to future events. The dysphoric forecasting bias was robust across ratings of positive and negative affect, forecasts for pleasant and unpleasant scenarios, continuous and categorical operationalisations of dysphoria, and three time points of observation. Similar biases were not observed in analyses examining the independent effects of anxiety and hypomania. Findings provide empirical evidence for the long-assumed influence of depressive symptoms on future expectations. The present investigation has implications for affective forecasting studies examining information-processing constructs, decision making, and broader domains of psychopathology.

  10. The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krzysztofowicz, Roman

    2001-08-01

    That forecasts should be stated in probabilistic, rather than deterministic, terms has been argued from common sense and decision-theoretic perspectives for almost a century. Yet most operational hydrological forecasting systems produce deterministic forecasts and most research in operational hydrology has been devoted to finding the 'best' estimates rather than quantifying the predictive uncertainty. This essay presents a compendium of reasons for probabilistic forecasting of hydrological variates. Probabilistic forecasts are scientifically more honest, enable risk-based warnings of floods, enable rational decision making, and offer additional economic benefits. The growing demand for information about risk and the rising capability to quantify predictive uncertainties create an unparalleled opportunity for the hydrological profession to dramatically enhance the forecasting paradigm.

  11. Dating of young groundwater using four anthropogenic trace gases (SF6, SF5CF3, CFC-12 and Halon-1301): methodology and first results.

    PubMed

    Bartyzel, Jakub; Rozanski, Kazimierz

    2016-01-01

    A dedicated, GC-based analytical system is presented which allows detection of four anthropogenic trace gases (SF6, SF5CF3, CFC-12 and Halon-1301) in a single water sample, with detection limits and measurement uncertainties sufficiently low to employ them as quantitative indicators of groundwater age. The gases dissolved in water are extracted in the field using the method based on a dynamic head-space concept. In the laboratory, the investigated gases are cryogenically enriched, separated and measured using an electron capture detector. Reproducibility of the analyses is in the order of 2-5 %. The investigated tracers were measured in several production wells located in the recharge area of an intensively exploited aquifer in southern Poland. While the piston-flow ages of groundwater in the investigated wells revealed internal consistency, they appeared to be generally smaller than the ages derived from time series of tritium content in those wells, interpreted by lumped-parameter models. This difference stems mainly from significantly longer travel times of tritium through the unsaturated zone, when compared to the gaseous tracers being used. The results of this study highlight the benefits of using multiple tracing in quantifying timescales of groundwater flow in shallow aquifer systems.

  12. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  13. Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyvis, Tom; Ratner, Rebecca K.; Levav, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent…

  14. Accuracy analysis of TDRSS demand forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stern, Daniel C.; Levine, Allen J.; Pitt, Karl J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper reviews Space Network (SN) demand forecasting experience over the past 16 years and describes methods used in the forecasts. The paper focuses on the Single Access (SA) service, the most sought-after resource in the Space Network. Of the ten years of actual demand data available, only the last five years (1989 to 1993) were considered predictive due to the extensive impact of the Challenger accident of 1986. NASA's Space Network provides tracking and communications services to user spacecraft such as the Shuttle and the Hubble Space Telescope. Forecasting the customer requirements is essential to planning network resources and to establishing service commitments to future customers. The lead time to procure Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS's) requires demand forecasts ten years in the future a planning horizon beyond the funding commitments for missions to be supported. The long range forecasts are shown to have had a bias toward underestimation in the 1991 -1992 period. The trend of underestimation can be expected to be replaced by overestimation for a number of years starting with 1998. At that time demand from new missions slated for launch will be larger than the demand from ongoing missions, making the potential for delay the dominant factor. If the new missions appear as scheduled, the forecasts are likely to be moderately underestimated. The SN commitment to meet the negotiated customer's requirements calls for conservatism in the forecasting. Modification of the forecasting procedure to account for a delay bias is, therefore, not advised. Fine tuning the mission model to more accurately reflect the current actual demand is recommended as it may marginally improve the first year forecasting.

  15. Dissolving pulp industry : market trends

    Treesearch

    Irene Durbak

    1993-01-01

    This report presents a worldwide overview of the dissolving pulp industry and highlights of this industry in Alaska. It describes trends in world markets and major end-use markets, with special emphasis on the manufacture and use of textile fibers in the United States. Figures and tables present data on production, consumption, and trade of dissolving pulp and the...

  16. Monthly forecasting of agricultural pests in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirschi, M.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Samietz, J.; Calanca, P.; Weigel, A. P.; Fischer, A. M.; Rotach, M. W.

    2012-04-01

    Given the repercussions of pests and diseases on agricultural production, detailed forecasting tools have been developed to simulate the degree of infestation depending on actual weather conditions. The life cycle of pests is most successfully predicted if the micro-climate of the immediate environment (habitat) of the causative organisms can be simulated. Sub-seasonal pest forecasts therefore require weather information for the relevant habitats and the appropriate time scale. The pest forecasting system SOPRA (www.sopra.info) currently in operation in Switzerland relies on such detailed weather information, using hourly weather observations up to the day the forecast is issued, but only a climatology for the forecasting period. Here, we aim at improving the skill of SOPRA forecasts by transforming the weekly information provided by ECMWF monthly forecasts (MOFCs) into hourly weather series as required for the prediction of upcoming life phases of the codling moth, the major insect pest in apple orchards worldwide. Due to the probabilistic nature of operational monthly forecasts and the limited spatial and temporal resolution, their information needs to be post-processed for use in a pest model. In this study, we developed a statistical downscaling approach for MOFCs that includes the following steps: (i) application of a stochastic weather generator to generate a large pool of daily weather series consistent with the climate at a specific location, (ii) a subsequent re-sampling of weather series from this pool to optimally represent the evolution of the weekly MOFC anomalies, and (iii) a final extension to hourly weather series suitable for the pest forecasting model. Results show a clear improvement in the forecast skill of occurrences of upcoming codling moth life phases when incorporating MOFCs as compared to the operational pest forecasting system. This is true both in terms of root mean squared errors and of the continuous rank probability scores of the

  17. Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Changnon, Stanley A.; Changnon, Joyce M.; Changnon, David

    1995-05-01

    The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-depth structured interviews were conducted with 56 decision makers in six utilities to assess existing and potential uses of climate forecasts. Only 3 of the 56 use forecasts. Eighty percent of those sampled envisioned applications of climate forecasts, given certain changes and additional information. Primary applications exist in power trading, load forecasting, fuel acquisition, and systems planning, with slight differences in interests between utilities. Utility staff understand probability-based forecasts but desire climatological information related to forecasted outcomes, including analogs similar to the forecasts, and explanations of the forecasts. Desired lead times vary from a week to three months, along with forecasts of up to four seasons ahead. The new NOAA forecasts initiated in 1995 provide the lead times and longer-term forecasts desired. Major hindrances to use of forecasts are hard-to-understand formats, lack of corporate acceptance, and lack of access to expertise. Recent changes in government regulations altered the utility industry, leading to a more competitive world wherein information about future weather conditions assumes much more value. Outreach efforts by government forecast agencies appear valuable to help achieve the appropriate and enhanced use of climate forecasts by the utility industry. An opportunity for service exists also for the private weather sector.

  18. CBO’s Revenue Forecasting Record

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-11-01

    1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 -10 0 10 20 30 CBO Administration CBO’s Mean Forecast Error (1.1%) Forecast Errors for CBO’s and the...Administration’s Two-Year Revenue Projections CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE CBO CBO’s Revenue Forecasting Record NOVEMBER 2015...

  19. Ecosystem consequences of changing inputs of terrestrial dissolved organic matter to lakes: current knowledge and future challenges

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Solomon, Christopher T.; Jones, Stuart E.; Weidel, Brian C.; Buffam, Ishi; Fork, Megan L; Karlsson, Jan; Larsen, Soren; Lennon, Jay T.; Read, Jordan S.; Sadro, Steven; Saros, Jasmine E.

    2015-01-01

    Lake ecosystems and the services that they provide to people are profoundly influenced by dissolved organic matter derived from terrestrial plant tissues. These terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) inputs to lakes have changed substantially in recent decades, and will likely continue to change. In this paper, we first briefly review the substantial literature describing tDOM effects on lakes and ongoing changes in tDOM inputs. We then identify and provide examples of four major challenges which limit predictions about the implications of tDOM change for lakes, as follows: First, it is currently difficult to forecast future tDOM inputs for particular lakes or lake regions. Second, tDOM influences ecosystems via complex, interacting, physical-chemical-biological effects and our holistic understanding of those effects is still rudimentary. Third, non-linearities and thresholds in relationships between tDOM inputs and ecosystem processes have not been well described. Fourth, much understanding of tDOM effects is built on comparative studies across space that may not capture likely responses through time. We conclude by identifying research approaches that may be important for overcoming those challenges in order to provide policy- and management-relevant predictions about the implications of changing tDOM inputs for lakes.

  20. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  1. The Economic Value of Air Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson-Sumo, Tasha

    Both long-term and daily air quality forecasts provide an essential component to human health and impact costs. According the American Lung Association, the estimated current annual cost of air pollution related illness in the United States, adjusted for inflation (3% per year), is approximately $152 billion. Many of the risks such as hospital visits and morality are associated with poor air quality days (where the Air Quality Index is greater than 100). Groups such as sensitive groups become more susceptible to the resulting conditions and more accurate forecasts would help to take more appropriate precautions. This research focuses on evaluating the utility of air quality forecasting in terms of its potential impacts by building on air quality forecasting and economical metrics. Our analysis includes data collected during the summertime ozone seasons between 2010 and 2012 from air quality models for the Washington, DC/Baltimore, MD region. The metrics that are relevant to our analysis include: (1) The number of times that a high ozone or particulate matter (PM) episode is correctly forecasted, (2) the number of times that high ozone or PM episode is forecasted when it does not occur and (3) the number of times when the air quality forecast predicts a cleaner air episode when the air was observed to have high ozone or PM. Our collection of data included available air quality model forecasts of ozone and particulate matter data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s AIRNOW as well as observational data of ozone and particulate matter from Clean Air Partners. We evaluated the performance of the air quality forecasts with that of the observational data and found that the forecast models perform well for the Baltimore/Washington region and the time interval observed. We estimate the potential amount for the Baltimore/Washington region accrues to a savings of up to 5,905 lives and 5.9 billion dollars per year. This total assumes perfect compliance with

  2. The Betting Odds Rating System: Using soccer forecasts to forecast soccer.

    PubMed

    Wunderlich, Fabian; Memmert, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    Betting odds are frequently found to outperform mathematical models in sports related forecasting tasks, however the factors contributing to betting odds are not fully traceable and in contrast to rating-based forecasts no straightforward measure of team-specific quality is deducible from the betting odds. The present study investigates the approach of combining the methods of mathematical models and the information included in betting odds. A soccer forecasting model based on the well-known ELO rating system and taking advantage of betting odds as a source of information is presented. Data from almost 15.000 soccer matches (seasons 2007/2008 until 2016/2017) are used, including both domestic matches (English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish Primera Division and Italian Serie A) and international matches (UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europe League). The novel betting odds based ELO model is shown to outperform classic ELO models, thus demonstrating that betting odds prior to a match contain more relevant information than the result of the match itself. It is shown how the novel model can help to gain valuable insights into the quality of soccer teams and its development over time, thus having a practical benefit in performance analysis. Moreover, it is argued that network based approaches might help in further improving rating and forecasting methods.

  3. The Betting Odds Rating System: Using soccer forecasts to forecast soccer

    PubMed Central

    Memmert, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    Betting odds are frequently found to outperform mathematical models in sports related forecasting tasks, however the factors contributing to betting odds are not fully traceable and in contrast to rating-based forecasts no straightforward measure of team-specific quality is deducible from the betting odds. The present study investigates the approach of combining the methods of mathematical models and the information included in betting odds. A soccer forecasting model based on the well-known ELO rating system and taking advantage of betting odds as a source of information is presented. Data from almost 15.000 soccer matches (seasons 2007/2008 until 2016/2017) are used, including both domestic matches (English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish Primera Division and Italian Serie A) and international matches (UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europe League). The novel betting odds based ELO model is shown to outperform classic ELO models, thus demonstrating that betting odds prior to a match contain more relevant information than the result of the match itself. It is shown how the novel model can help to gain valuable insights into the quality of soccer teams and its development over time, thus having a practical benefit in performance analysis. Moreover, it is argued that network based approaches might help in further improving rating and forecasting methods. PMID:29870554

  4. Uncertainty Forecasts Improve Weather-Related Decisions and Attenuate the Effects of Forecast Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joslyn, Susan L.; LeClerc, Jared E.

    2012-01-01

    Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…

  5. Permeability of cork to gases.

    PubMed

    Faria, David P; Fonseca, Ana L; Pereira, Helen; Teodoro, Orlando M N D

    2011-04-27

    The permeability of gases through uncompressed cork was investigated. More than 100 samples were assessed from different plank qualities to provide a picture of the permeability distribution. A novel technique based on a mass spectrometer leak detector was used to directly measure the helium flow through the central area of small disks 10 mm in diameter and 2 mm thick. The permeability for nitrogen, oxygen, and other gases was measured by the pressure rise technique. Boiled and nonboiled cork samples from different sections were evaluated. An asymmetric frequency distribution ranging 3 orders of magnitude (roughly from 1 to 1000 μmol/(cm·atm·day)) for selected samples without macroscopic defects was found, having a peak below 100 μmol/(cm·atm·day). Correlation was found between density and permeability: higher density samples tend to show lower permeability. However, boiled cork showed a mean lower permeability despite having a lower density. The transport mechanism of gases through cork was also examined. Calculations suggest that gases permeate uncompressed cork mainly through small channels between cells under a molecular flow regime. The diameter of such channels was estimated to be in the range of 100 nm, in agreement with the plasmodesmata size in the cork cell walls.

  6. Tested Demonstrations: Diffusion of Gases--Kinetic Molecular Theory of Gases.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilbert, George L., Ed.

    1984-01-01

    Provided are procedures and list of materials needed to demonstrate that the pressure inside a container with a porous surface can be changed due to the rate of diffusion of low molecular weight gases. Typical results obtained are included. (JN)

  7. Toxic gases used in the microelectronics industry.

    PubMed

    Wald, P H; Becker, C E

    1986-01-01

    Toxic gases are among the most dangerous materials used in manufacturing semiconductors and related devices. The storage, handling, and disposal of these gases pose a major hazard to workers and to communities located near high-technology companies. It must be anticipated that accidents, acts of terrorism, and natural calamities will result in exposure. Flammability, corrosiveness, and concentration must be considered, as well as the immediate danger to life and known human health effects of the gases used.

  8. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  9. Forecasts of forest conditions

    Treesearch

    Robert Huggett; David N. Wear; Ruhong Li; John Coulston; Shan Liu

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsAmong the five forest management types, only planted pine is expected to increase in area. In 2010 planted pine comprised 19 percent of southern forests. By 2060, planted pine is forecasted to comprise somewhere between 24 and 36 percent of forest area.Although predicted rates of change vary, all forecasts reveal...

  10. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  11. Error models for official mortality forecasts.

    PubMed

    Alho, J M; Spencer, B D

    1990-09-01

    "The Office of the Actuary, U.S. Social Security Administration, produces alternative forecasts of mortality to reflect uncertainty about the future.... In this article we identify the components and assumptions of the official forecasts and approximate them by stochastic parametric models. We estimate parameters of the models from past data, derive statistical intervals for the forecasts, and compare them with the official high-low intervals. We use the models to evaluate the forecasts rather than to develop different predictions of the future. Analysis of data from 1972 to 1985 shows that the official intervals for mortality forecasts for males or females aged 45-70 have approximately a 95% chance of including the true mortality rate in any year. For other ages the chances are much less than 95%." excerpt

  12. 40 CFR 600.108-08 - Analytical gases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... ECONOMY AND GREENHOUSE GAS EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES Fuel Economy and Carbon-Related Exhaust Emission Test Procedures § 600.108-08 Analytical gases. The analytical gases for all fuel economy testing...

  13. 40 CFR 600.108-08 - Analytical gases.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... ECONOMY AND GREENHOUSE GAS EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES Fuel Economy and Carbon-Related Exhaust Emission Test Procedures § 600.108-08 Analytical gases. The analytical gases for all fuel economy testing...

  14. U.S. High Seas Marine Text Forecasts by Area

    Science.gov Websites

    Flooding Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's U.S. High Seas Marine Text Forecasts by Area OPC N.Atlantic High Seas Forecast NHC N.Atlantic High Seas Forecast OPC N.Pacific High Seas Forecast HFO N.Pacific High Seas Forecast NHC N.Pacific High Seas Forecast HFO S.Pacific High Seas Forecast U.S. High Seas Marine Text

  15. Abiotic uptake of gases by organic soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smagin, A. V.

    2007-12-01

    Methodological and experimental studies of the abiotic uptake of gaseous substances by organic soils were performed. The static adsorption method of closed vessels for assessing the interaction of gases with the solid and liquid soil phases and the dynamic method of determining the sorption isotherms of gases by soils were analyzed. The theoretical substantiation of the methods and their practical implementations on the basis of a PGA-7 portable gas analyzer (Russia) were considered. Good agreement between the equilibrium sorption isotherms of the gases and the Langmuir model was revealed; for the real ranges of natural gas concentrations, this model can be reduced to the linear Henry equation. The limit values of the gas sorption (Langmuir monolayer capacity) are typical for dry samples; they vary from 670 4000 g/m3 for methane and oxygen to 20 000 25 000 g/m3 for carbon dioxide. The linear distribution coefficients of gases between the solid and gas phases of organic soils (Henry constants) are 8 18 units for poorly sorbed gases (O2, CH4) and 40 60 units for CO2. The kinetics of the chemicophysical uptake of gases by the soil studied is linear in character and obeys the relaxation kinetic model of the first order with the corresponding relaxation constants, which vary from 1 h -1 in wet samples to 10 h -1 in dry samples.

  16. Gambling scores for earthquake predictions and forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Jiancang

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method, namely the gambling score, for scoring the performance earthquake forecasts or predictions. Unlike most other scoring procedures that require a regular scheme of forecast and treat each earthquake equally, regardless their magnitude, this new scoring method compensates the risk that the forecaster has taken. Starting with a certain number of reputation points, once a forecaster makes a prediction or forecast, he is assumed to have betted some points of his reputation. The reference model, which plays the role of the house, determines how many reputation points the forecaster can gain if he succeeds, according to a fair rule, and also takes away the reputation points betted by the forecaster if he loses. This method is also extended to the continuous case of point process models, where the reputation points betted by the forecaster become a continuous mass on the space-time-magnitude range of interest. We also calculate the upper bound of the gambling score when the true model is a renewal process, the stress release model or the ETAS model and when the reference model is the Poisson model.

  17. The fate of dissolved dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) in seawater: tracer studies using 35S-DMSP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiene, Ronald P.; Linn, Laura J.

    2000-08-01

    of DMS was much slower than for DMSP or MeSH, and the retention of the DMS-sulfur in particles was only a minor fraction of the total amount metabolized. The majority of the 35S-DMS was transformed into DNVS including sulfate. Temperature and DMSP concentration significantly affected the partitioning of sulfur during DMSP degradation, with lower temperatures and higher substrate concentrations causing a shift from particulate into volatile and non-volatile dissolved products. Our work demonstrates that natural turnover of dissolved DMSP results in minor net production of sulfur gases, and substantial production of previously unrecognized products (particulate and dissolved non-volatile sulfur). The main fates of DMSP are tied to assimilation and oxidation of the reduced sulfur by microorganisms, both of which may act as important controls on the production of climatically active DMS.

  18. Empirical prediction intervals improve energy forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Kaack, Lynn H.; Apt, Jay; Morgan, M. Granger; McSharry, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Hundreds of organizations and analysts use energy projections, such as those contained in the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), for investment and policy decisions. Retrospective analyses of past AEO projections have shown that observed values can differ from the projection by several hundred percent, and thus a thorough treatment of uncertainty is essential. We evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several empirical density forecasting methods, using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The analysis confirms that a Gaussian density, estimated on past forecasting errors, gives comparatively accurate uncertainty estimates over a variety of energy quantities in the AEO, in particular outperforming scenario projections provided in the AEO. We report probabilistic uncertainties for 18 core quantities of the AEO 2016 projections. Our work frames how to produce, evaluate, and rank probabilistic forecasts in this setting. We propose a log transformation of forecast errors for price projections and a modified nonparametric empirical density forecasting method. Our findings give guidance on how to evaluate and communicate uncertainty in future energy outlooks. PMID:28760997

  19. Progress and challenges with Warn-on-Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stensrud, David J.; Wicker, Louis J.; Xue, Ming; Dawson, Daniel T.; Yussouf, Nusrat; Wheatley, Dustan M.; Thompson, Therese E.; Snook, Nathan A.; Smith, Travis M.; Schenkman, Alexander D.; Potvin, Corey K.; Mansell, Edward R.; Lei, Ting; Kuhlman, Kristin M.; Jung, Youngsun; Jones, Thomas A.; Gao, Jidong; Coniglio, Michael C.; Brooks, Harold E.; Brewster, Keith A.

    2013-04-01

    The current status and challenges associated with two aspects of Warn-on-Forecast-a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research project exploring the use of a convective-scale ensemble analysis and forecast system to support hazardous weather warning operations-are outlined. These two project aspects are the production of a rapidly-updating assimilation system to incorporate data from multiple radars into a single analysis, and the ability of short-range ensemble forecasts of hazardous convective weather events to provide guidance that could be used to extend warning lead times for tornadoes, hailstorms, damaging windstorms and flash floods. Results indicate that a three-dimensional variational assimilation system, that blends observations from multiple radars into a single analysis, shows utility when evaluated by forecasters in the Hazardous Weather Testbed and may help increase confidence in a warning decision. The ability of short-range convective-scale ensemble forecasts to provide guidance that could be used in warning operations is explored for five events: two tornadic supercell thunderstorms, a macroburst, a damaging windstorm and a flash flood. Results show that the ensemble forecasts of the three individual severe thunderstorm events are very good, while the forecasts from the damaging windstorm and flash flood events, associated with mesoscale convective systems, are mixed. Important interactions between mesoscale and convective-scale features occur for the mesoscale convective system events that strongly influence the quality of the convective-scale forecasts. The development of a successful Warn-on-Forecast system will take many years and require the collaborative efforts of researchers and operational forecasters to succeed.

  20. Non-thermal plasma for exhaust gases treatment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alva R., Elvia; Pacheco P., Marquidia; Gómez B., Fernando; Pacheco P., Joel; Colín C., Arturo; Sánchez-Mendieta, Víctor; Valdivia B., Ricardo; Santana D., Alfredo; Huertas C., José; Frías P., Hilda

    2015-09-01

    This article describes a study on a non-thermal plasma device to treat exhaust gases in an internal combustion engine. Several tests using a plasma device to treat exhaust gases are conducted on a Honda GX200-196 cm3 engine at different rotational speeds. A plasma reactor could be efficient in degrading nitrogen oxides and particulate matter. Monoxide and carbon dioxide treatment is minimal. However, achieving 1%-3% degradation may be interesting to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.

  1. Forecasting aviation activity by airport

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-07-01

    The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has a responsibility to review aviation forecasts that are submitted to the agency in conjunction with airport planning, including airport master plans and environmental studies. FAA reviews such forecasts wi...

  2. Solubilities of noble gases in magnetite - Implications for planetary gases in meteorites.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lancet, M. S.; Anders, E.

    1973-01-01

    Solubilities of noble gases in magnetite were determined by growing magnetite in a noble-gas atmosphere between 450 and 700 K. Henry's law is obeyed at pressures up to .01 atm for He, Ne, Ar and up to .00001 atm for Kr, Xe, with the following distribution coefficients at 500 K: He 0.042, Ne 0.016, Ar 3.6, Kr 1.3, Xe 0.88, some 100 to 100,000 times higher than previous determinations on silicate and fluoride melts. Apparent heats of solution are in sharp contrast with earlier determinations on melts which were small and positive, but are comparable to the values for clathrates. Presumably the gases are held in anion vacancies.

  3. Quantifying model uncertainty in seasonal Arctic sea-ice forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward; Barthélemy, Antoine; Chevallier, Matthieu; Cullather, Richard; Fučkar, Neven; Massonnet, François; Posey, Pamela; Wang, Wanqiu; Zhang, Jinlun; Ardilouze, Constantin; Bitz, Cecilia; Vernieres, Guillaume; Wallcraft, Alan; Wang, Muyin

    2017-04-01

    Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or post-processing techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored.

  4. Earthquake chemical precursors in groundwater: a review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paudel, Shukra Raj; Banjara, Sushant Prasad; Wagle, Amrita; Freund, Friedemann T.

    2018-03-01

    We review changes in groundwater chemistry as precursory signs for earthquakes. In particular, we discuss pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity, and dissolved gases in relation to their significance for earthquake prediction or forecasting. These parameters are widely believed to vary in response to seismic and pre-seismic activity. However, the same parameters also vary in response to non-seismic processes. The inability to reliably distinguish between changes caused by seismic or pre-seismic activities from changes caused by non-seismic activities has impeded progress in earthquake science. Short-term earthquake prediction is unlikely to be achieved, however, by pH, TDS, electrical conductivity, and dissolved gas measurements alone. On the other hand, the production of free hydroxyl radicals (•OH), subsequent reactions such as formation of H2O2 and oxidation of As(III) to As(V) in groundwater, have distinctive precursory characteristics. This study deviates from the prevailing mechanical mantra. It addresses earthquake-related non-seismic mechanisms, but focused on the stress-induced electrification of rocks, the generation of positive hole charge carriers and their long-distance propagation through the rock column, plus on electrochemical processes at the rock-water interface.

  5. A pilot project to detect and forecast harmful algal blooms in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

    PubMed

    Fisher, William S; Malone, Thomas C; Giattina, James D

    2003-01-01

    More timely access to data and information on the initiation, evolution and effects of harmful algal blooms can reduce adverse impacts on valued natural resources and human health. To achieve this in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a pilot project was initiated to develop a user-driven, end-to-end (measurements to applications) observing system. A key strategy of the project is to coordinate existing state, federal and academic programs at an unprecedented level of collaboration and partnership. Resource managers charged with protection of public health and aquatic resources require immediate notice of algal events and a forecast of when, where and what adverse effects will likely occur. Further, managers require integrated analyses and interpretations, rather than raw data, to make effective decisions. Consequently, a functional observing system must collect and transform diverse measurements into usable forecasts. Data needed to support development of forecasts will include such properties as sea surface temperature, winds, currents and waves; precipitation and freshwater flows with related discharges of sediment and nutrients; salinity, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations (in vivo fluorescence); and remotely-sensed spatial images of sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. These data will be provided via a mixture of discrete and autonomous in situ sensing with near real-time data telemetry, and remote sensing from space (SeaWiFS), aircraft (hyperspectral imagery) or land (high-frequency radar). With calibration across these platforms, the project will ultimately provide a 4-dimensional visualization of harmful algae events in a time frame suitable to resource managers.

  6. Residual Gases in Crystal Growth Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Palosz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Residual gases present in closed ampoules may affect different crystal growth processes. That seems to be particularly true under microgravity conditions where, due to weightlessness of the melt, the gases may lead to detached solidification and/or formation of voids and bubbles, as observed in the past. For that reason a good understanding and control of formation of residual gases is important for an optimum design and meaningful interpretation of crystal growth experiments. Our extensive experimental and theoretical studies of the subject, summarized in this paper, include degassing of silica glass and generation of gases from different source materials. Different materials processing conditions, like outgassing under vacuum, annealing in hydrogen, resublimation, different material preparation procedures, multiple annealings, different processing times, and others were applied and their effect on the amount and composition of gas were analyzed. The experimental results were interpreted based on theoretical calculations on diffusion in silica glass and source materials and thermochemistry of the system. Procedures for a reduction of the amount of gas are also discussed.

  7. FAA Aviation Forecast Conference Proceedings (16th)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-02-01

    FORECASTS The FAA forecasting process is a continuous one which involves FAA Forecast Branch’s interaction with various FAA Offices and Services... process uses various economic and aviation data bases, the outputs of several econometric models and equations, and other analytical techniques. The FAA...workload measures, summarized numerically in the table on page 8, are the resultant forecasts of this process and are used annually by the agency for

  8. Six rules for accurate effective forecasting.

    PubMed

    Saffo, Paul

    2007-01-01

    The primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities facing a company, society, or the world at large. In this article, Saffo demythologizes the forecasting process to help executives become sophisticated and participative consumers of forecasts, rather than passive absorbers. He illustrates how to use forecasts to at once broaden understanding of possibilities and narrow the decision space within which one must exercise intuition. The events of 9/11, for example, were a much bigger surprise than they should have been. After all, airliners flown into monuments were the stuff of Tom Clancy novels in the 1990s, and everyone knew that terrorists had a very personal antipathy toward the World Trade Center. So why was 9/11 such a surprise? What can executives do to avoid being blind-sided by other such wild cards, be they radical shifts in markets or the seemingly sudden emergence of disruptive technologies? In describing what forecasters are trying to achieve, Saffo outlines six simple, commonsense rules that smart managers should observe as they embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. Map a cone of uncertainty, he advises, look for the S curve, embrace the things that don't fit, hold strong opinions weakly, look back twice as far as you look forward, and know when not to make a forecast.

  9. Skill of Ensemble Seasonal Probability Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Leonard A.; Binter, Roman; Du, Hailiang; Niehoerster, Falk

    2010-05-01

    In operational forecasting, the computational complexity of large simulation models is, ideally, justified by enhanced performance over simpler models. We will consider probability forecasts and contrast the skill of ENSEMBLES-based seasonal probability forecasts of interest to the finance sector (specifically temperature forecasts for Nino 3.4 and the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR)). The ENSEMBLES model simulations will be contrasted against forecasts from statistical models based on the observations (climatological distributions) and empirical dynamics based on the observations but conditioned on the current state (dynamical climatology). For some start dates, individual ENSEMBLES models yield significant skill even at a lead-time of 14 months. The nature of this skill is discussed, and chances of application are noted. Questions surrounding the interpretation of probability forecasts based on these multi-model ensemble simulations are then considered; the distributions considered are formed by kernel dressing the ensemble and blending with the climatology. The sources of apparent (RMS) skill in distributions based on multi-model simulations is discussed, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of "zero-skill" models in the long range can improve Root-Mean-Square-Error scores, casting some doubt on the common justification for the claim that all models should be included in forming an operational probability forecast. It is argued that the rational response varies with lead time.

  10. A global flash flood forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-04-01

    The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial

  11. Operational foreshock forecasting: Fifteen years after

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogata, Y.

    2010-12-01

    We are concerned with operational forecasting of the probability that events are foreshocks of a forthcoming earthquake that is significantly larger (mainshock). Specifically, we define foreshocks as the preshocks substantially smaller than the mainshock by a magnitude gap of 0.5 or larger. The probability gain of foreshock forecast is extremely high compare to long-term forecast by renewal processes or various alarm-based intermediate-term forecasts because of a large event’s low occurrence rate in a short period and a narrow target region. Thus, it is desired to establish operational foreshock probability forecasting as seismologists have done for aftershocks. When a series of earthquakes occurs in a region, we attempt to discriminate foreshocks from a swarm or mainshock-aftershock sequence. Namely, after real time identification of an earthquake cluster using methods such as the single-link algorithm, the probability is calculated by applying statistical features that discriminate foreshocks from other types of clusters, by considering the events' stronger proximity in time and space and tendency towards chronologically increasing magnitudes. These features were modeled for probability forecasting and the coefficients of the model were estimated in Ogata et al. (1996) for the JMA hypocenter data (M≧4, 1926-1993). Currently, fifteen years has passed since the publication of the above-stated work so that we are able to present the performance and validation of the forecasts (1994-2009) by using the same model. Taking isolated events into consideration, the probability of the first events in a potential cluster being a foreshock vary in a range between 0+% and 10+% depending on their locations. This conditional forecasting performs significantly better than the unconditional (average) foreshock probability of 3.7% throughout Japan region. Furthermore, when we have the additional events in a cluster, the forecast probabilities range more widely from nearly 0% to

  12. NWS Operational Requirements for Ensemble-Based Hydrologic Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartman, R. K.

    2008-12-01

    Ensemble-based hydrologic forecasts have been developed and issued by National Weather Service (NWS) staff at River Forecast Centers (RFCs) for many years. Used principally for long-range water supply forecasts, only the uncertainty associated with weather and climate have been traditionally considered. As technology and societal expectations of resource managers increase, the use and desire for risk-based decision support tools has also increased. These tools require forecast information that includes reliable uncertainty estimates across all time and space domains. The development of reliable uncertainty estimates associated with hydrologic forecasts is being actively pursued within the United States and internationally. This presentation will describe the challenges, components, and requirements for operational hydrologic ensemble-based forecasts from the perspective of a NOAA/NWS River Forecast Center.

  13. Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2017-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

  14. Verification of short lead time forecast models: applied to Kp and Dst forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wintoft, Peter; Wik, Magnus

    2016-04-01

    In the ongoing EU/H2020 project PROGRESS models that predicts Kp, Dst, and AE from L1 solar wind data will be used as inputs to radiation belt models. The possible lead times from L1 measurements are shorter (10s of minutes to hours) than the typical duration of the physical phenomena that should be forecast. Under these circumstances several metrics fail to single out trivial cases, such as persistence. In this work we explore metrics and approaches for short lead time forecasts. We apply these to current Kp and Dst forecast models. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637302.

  15. Statistical earthquake focal mechanism forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2014-04-01

    Forecasts of the focal mechanisms of future shallow (depth 0-70 km) earthquakes are important for seismic hazard estimates and Coulomb stress, and other models of earthquake occurrence. Here we report on a high-resolution global forecast of earthquake rate density as a function of location, magnitude and focal mechanism. In previous publications we reported forecasts of 0.5° spatial resolution, covering the latitude range from -75° to +75°, based on the Global Central Moment Tensor earthquake catalogue. In the new forecasts we have improved the spatial resolution to 0.1° and the latitude range from pole to pole. Our focal mechanism estimates require distance-weighted combinations of observed focal mechanisms within 1000 km of each gridpoint. Simultaneously, we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms, using the method of Kagan & Jackson proposed in 1994. This average angle reveals the level of tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The procedure becomes problematical where longitude lines are not approximately parallel, and where shallow earthquakes are so sparse that an adequate sample spans very large distances. North or south of 75°, the azimuths of points 1000 km away may vary by about 35°. We solved this problem by calculating focal mechanisms on a plane tangent to the Earth's surface at each forecast point, correcting for the rotation of the longitude lines at the locations of earthquakes included in the averaging. The corrections are negligible between -30° and +30° latitude, but outside that band uncorrected rotations can be significantly off. Improved forecasts at 0.5° and 0.1° resolution are posted at http://eq.ess.ucla.edu/kagan/glob_gcmt_index.html.

  16. Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sigmond, M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Kharin, V. V.; Shepherd, T. G.

    2013-02-01

    Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions.

  17. GaSe1-xSx and GaSe1-xTex thick crystals for broadband terahertz pulses generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nazarov, M. M.; Yu. Sarkisov, S.; Shkurinov, A. P.; Tolbanov, O. P.

    2011-08-01

    We demonstrate the possibility of broadband THz pulse generation in mixed GaSe1-xSx and GaSe1-xTex crystals. The ordinary and extraordinary refractive indices of the crystals have been measured by the terahertz time-domain spectroscopy method, those values strongly influence the efficiency of THz generation process. The high birefringence and transparency of pure GaSe and mixed crystals allow optical rectification of femtosecond laser pulses in the several millimeters thick crystal using the еее interaction process (with two pumping waves and generated THz wave all having extraordinary polarization in the crystal).

  18. Verification of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow forecasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): 1. Experimental design and forcing verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, James D.; Wu, Limin; He, Minxue; Regonda, Satish; Lee, Haksu; Seo, Dong-Jun

    2014-11-01

    Retrospective forecasts of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow were generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) for a 20-year period between 1979 and 1999. The hindcasts were produced for two basins in each of four River Forecast Centers (RFCs), namely the Arkansas-Red Basin RFC, the Colorado Basin RFC, the California-Nevada RFC, and the Middle Atlantic RFC. Precipitation and temperature forecasts were produced with the HEFS Meteorological Ensemble Forecast Processor (MEFP). Inputs to the MEFP comprised ;raw; precipitation and temperature forecasts from the frozen (circa 1997) version of the NWS Global Forecast System (GFS) and a climatological ensemble, which involved resampling historical observations in a moving window around the forecast valid date (;resampled climatology;). In both cases, the forecast horizon was 1-14 days. This paper outlines the hindcasting and verification strategy, and then focuses on the quality of the temperature and precipitation forecasts from the MEFP. A companion paper focuses on the quality of the streamflow forecasts from the HEFS. In general, the precipitation forecasts are more skillful than resampled climatology during the first week, but comprise little or no skill during the second week. In contrast, the temperature forecasts improve upon resampled climatology at all forecast lead times. However, there are notable differences among RFCs and for different seasons, aggregation periods and magnitudes of the observed and forecast variables, both for precipitation and temperature. For example, the MEFP-GFS precipitation forecasts show the highest correlations and greatest skill in the California Nevada RFC, particularly during the wet season (November-April). While generally reliable, the MEFP forecasts typically underestimate the largest observed precipitation amounts (a Type-II conditional bias). As a statistical technique, the MEFP cannot detect, and thus

  19. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative

  20. Reactivity of rock and well in a geological storage of CO2 : role of co-injected gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renard, S.; Sterpenich, J.; Pironon, J.

    2009-04-01

    hermetically transferred by cold trap into the gold reactors that are sealed by electrical welding and placed in an autoclave during one month at 150˚ C and 100 bar, which represent the geological conditions in the Rousse reservoir after two years of injection. After experiments, solid samples (rock, cement, steel) are observed and analysed with different techniques (SEM, TEM, Raman and XRD). Gases are also collected and analysed by Raman spectrometry whereas the aqueous solution is analysed with ICP-MS, ICP-AES and ionic chromatography. As sampling methods cannot be used during experiment the synthetic fluid inclusions technique has been developed to trap and analyse the fluids in experimental conditions. It allows to characterise the number of phase and the nature of dissolved species. Mass balances are established in order to quantify the reaction rates. This study shows the first results concerning the mineralogical transformation of rocks and well materials that have undergone CO2and co-injected annex gases. The results are used to better constrain thermodynamical approaches leading to a predictive geochemical modelling. The results are interpreted in terms of petrophysical and chemical impacts of the injected gases on the mineral assemblages of a storage site. This work is supported by TOTAL and ADEME (national agency for energy control and development, France).

  1. National Weather Service Forecast Office - Honolulu, Hawai`i

    Science.gov Websites

    Locations - Coastal Forecast Kauai Northwest Waters Kauai Windward Waters Kauai Leeward Waters Kauai Channel Oahu Forecast Oahu Surf Forecast Coastal Wind Observations Buoy Reports, and current weather conditions for selected locations tides, sunrise and sunset information Coastal Waters Forecast general weather

  2. Forecasting in foodservice: model development, testing, and evaluation.

    PubMed

    Miller, J L; Thompson, P A; Orabella, M M

    1991-05-01

    This study was designed to develop, test, and evaluate mathematical models appropriate for forecasting menu-item production demand in foodservice. Data were collected from residence and dining hall foodservices at Ohio State University. Objectives of the study were to collect, code, and analyze the data; develop and test models using actual operation data; and compare forecasting results with current methods in use. Customer count was forecast using deseasonalized simple exponential smoothing. Menu-item demand was forecast by multiplying the count forecast by a predicted preference statistic. Forecasting models were evaluated using mean squared error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error techniques. All models were more accurate than current methods. A broad spectrum of forecasting techniques could be used by foodservice managers with access to a personal computer and spread-sheet and database-management software. The findings indicate that mathematical forecasting techniques may be effective in foodservice operations to control costs, increase productivity, and maximize profits.

  3. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  4. Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

    2010-12-01

    Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover

  5. Weather Forecaster Understanding of Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bol, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Abshire, W. E.

    2013-12-01

    Weather forecasters, particularly those in broadcasting, are the primary conduit to the public for information on climate and climate change. However, many weather forecasters remain skeptical of model-based climate projections. To address this issue, The COMET Program developed an hour-long online lesson of how climate models work, targeting an audience of weather forecasters. The module draws on forecasters' pre-existing knowledge of weather, climate, and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In order to measure learning outcomes, quizzes were given before and after the lesson. Preliminary results show large learning gains. For all people that took both pre and post-tests (n=238), scores improved from 48% to 80%. Similar pre/post improvement occurred for National Weather Service employees (51% to 87%, n=22 ) and college faculty (50% to 90%, n=7). We believe these results indicate a fundamental misunderstanding among many weather forecasters of (1) the difference between weather and climate models, (2) how researchers use climate models, and (3) how they interpret model results. The quiz results indicate that efforts to educate the public about climate change need to include weather forecasters, a vital link between the research community and the general public.

  6. Oxidation of ultrathin GaSe

    DOE PAGES

    Thomas Edwin Beechem; McDonald, Anthony E.; Ohta, Taisuke; ...

    2015-10-26

    Oxidation of exfoliated gallium selenide (GaSe) is investigated through Raman, photoluminescence, Auger, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopies. Photoluminescence and Raman intensity reductions associated with spectral features of GaSe are shown to coincide with the emergence of signatures emanating from the by-products of the oxidation reaction, namely, Ga 2Se 3 and amorphous Se. Furthermore, photoinduced oxidation is initiated over a portion of a flake highlighting the potential for laser based patterning of two-dimensional heterostructures via selective oxidation.

  7. Aerosol analysis and forecast in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System: 3. Evaluation by means of case studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mangold, A.; de Backer, H.; de Paepe, B.; Dewitte, S.; Chiapello, I.; Derimian, Y.; Kacenelenbogen, M.; LéOn, J.-F.; Huneeus, N.; Schulz, M.; Ceburnis, D.; O'Dowd, C.; Flentje, H.; Kinne, S.; Benedetti, A.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Boucher, O.

    2011-02-01

    A near real-time system for assimilation and forecasts of aerosols, greenhouse and trace gases, extending the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), has been developed in the framework of the Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data (GEMS) project. The GEMS aerosol modeling system is novel as it is the first aerosol model fully coupled to a numerical weather prediction model with data assimilation. A reanalysis of the period 2003-2009 has been carried out with the same system. During its development phase, the aerosol system was first run for the time period January 2003 to December 2004 and included sea salt, desert dust, organic matter, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols. In the analysis, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) total aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm over ocean and land (except over bright surfaces) was assimilated. This work evaluates the performance of the aerosol system by means of case studies. The case studies include (1) the summer heat wave in Europe in August 2003, characterized by forest fire aerosol and conditions of high temperatures and stagnation, favoring photochemistry and secondary aerosol formation, (2) a large Saharan dust event in March 2004, and (3) periods of high and low sea salt aerosol production. During the heat wave period in 2003, the linear correlation coefficients between modeled and observed AOD (550 nm) and between modeled and observed PM2.5 mass concentrations are 0.82 and 0.71, respectively, for all investigated sites together. The AOD is slightly and the PM2.5 mass concentration is clearly overestimated by the aerosol model during this period. The simulated sulfate mass concentration is significantly correlated with observations but is distinctly overestimated. The horizontal and vertical locations of the main features of the aerosol distribution during the Saharan dust outbreak are generally well captured, as well as the timing of the AOD peaks. The

  8. LINKS to NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECAST OFFICES

    Science.gov Websites

    Coastal Flooding Tsunamis 406 EPIRB's National Weather Service Marine Forecasts LINKS to NATIONAL WEATHER Marine Forecasts in text form ) Coastal NWS Forecast Offices have regionally focused marine webpages which are overflowing with information such as coastal forecasts, predicted tides, and buoy observations

  9. Value of Forecaster in the Loop

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-01

    forecast system IFR instrument flight rules IMC instrument meteorological conditions LAMP Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program METOC...obtaining valuable experience. Additional factors have impacted the Navy weather forecast process. There has been a the realignment of the meteorology...forecasts that are assessed, it may be a relatively small number that have direct impact on the decision-making process. Whether the value is minimal or

  10. Forecasting biodiversity in breeding birds using best practices

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Shawn D.; White, Ethan P.

    2018-01-01

    Biodiversity forecasts are important for conservation, management, and evaluating how well current models characterize natural systems. While the number of forecasts for biodiversity is increasing, there is little information available on how well these forecasts work. Most biodiversity forecasts are not evaluated to determine how well they predict future diversity, fail to account for uncertainty, and do not use time-series data that captures the actual dynamics being studied. We addressed these limitations by using best practices to explore our ability to forecast the species richness of breeding birds in North America. We used hindcasting to evaluate six different modeling approaches for predicting richness. Hindcasts for each method were evaluated annually for a decade at 1,237 sites distributed throughout the continental United States. All models explained more than 50% of the variance in richness, but none of them consistently outperformed a baseline model that predicted constant richness at each site. The best practices implemented in this study directly influenced the forecasts and evaluations. Stacked species distribution models and “naive” forecasts produced poor estimates of uncertainty and accounting for this resulted in these models dropping in the relative performance compared to other models. Accounting for observer effects improved model performance overall, but also changed the rank ordering of models because it did not improve the accuracy of the “naive” model. Considering the forecast horizon revealed that the prediction accuracy decreased across all models as the time horizon of the forecast increased. To facilitate the rapid improvement of biodiversity forecasts, we emphasize the value of specific best practices in making forecasts and evaluating forecasting methods. PMID:29441230

  11. Risky Business: Development, Communication and Use of Hydroclimatic Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lall, U.

    2012-12-01

    Inter-seasonal and longer hydroclimatic forecasts have been made increasingly in the last two decades following the increase in ENSO activity since the early 1980s and the success in seasonal ENSO forecasting. Yet, the number of examples of systematic use of these forecasts and their incorporation into water systems operation continue to be few. This may be due in part to the limited skill in such forecasts over much of the world, but is also likely due to the limited evolution of methods and opportunities to "safely" use uncertain forecasts. There has been a trend to rely more on "physically based" rather than "physically informed" empirical forecasts, and this may in part explain the limited success in developing usable products in more locations. Given the limited skill, forecasters have tended to "dumb" down their forecasts - either formally or subjectively shrinking the forecasts towards climatology, or reducing them to tercile forecasts that serve to obscure the potential information in the forecast. Consequently, the potential utility of such forecasts for decision making is compromised. Water system operating rules are often designed to be robust in the face of historical climate variability, and consequently are adapted to the potential conditions that a forecast seeks to inform. In such situations, there is understandable reluctance by managers to use the forecasts as presented, except in special cases where an alternate course of action is pragmatically appealing in any case. In this talk, I review opportunities to present targeted forecasts for use with decision systems that directly address climate risk and the risk induced by unbiased yet uncertain forecasts, focusing especially on extreme events and water allocation in a competitive environment. Examples from Brazil and India covering surface and ground water conjunctive use strategies that could potentially be insured and lead to improvements over the traditional system operation and resource

  12. Improving Global Forecast System of extreme precipitation events with regional statistical model: Application of quantile-based probabilistic forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shastri, Hiteshri; Ghosh, Subimal; Karmakar, Subhankar

    2017-02-01

    Forecasting of extreme precipitation events at a regional scale is of high importance due to their severe impacts on society. The impacts are stronger in urban regions due to high flood potential as well high population density leading to high vulnerability. Although significant scientific improvements took place in the global models for weather forecasting, they are still not adequate at a regional scale (e.g., for an urban region) with high false alarms and low detection. There has been a need to improve the weather forecast skill at a local scale with probabilistic outcome. Here we develop a methodology with quantile regression, where the reliably simulated variables from Global Forecast System are used as predictors and different quantiles of rainfall are generated corresponding to that set of predictors. We apply this method to a flood-prone coastal city of India, Mumbai, which has experienced severe floods in recent years. We find significant improvements in the forecast with high detection and skill scores. We apply the methodology to 10 ensemble members of Global Ensemble Forecast System and find a reduction in ensemble uncertainty of precipitation across realizations with respect to that of original precipitation forecasts. We validate our model for the monsoon season of 2006 and 2007, which are independent of the training/calibration data set used in the study. We find promising results and emphasize to implement such data-driven methods for a better probabilistic forecast at an urban scale primarily for an early flood warning.

  13. Methodological Problems in the Forecasting of Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kostanian, S. L.

    1978-01-01

    Examines how forecasting of educational development in the Soviet Union can be coordinated with forecasts of scientific and technical progress. Predicts that the efficiency of social forecasting will increase when more empirical data on macro- and micro-processes is collected. (Author/DB)

  14. Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garner, Gregory G.; Thompson, Anne M.

    2013-01-01

    An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone

  15. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  16. Forecasting daily patient volumes in the emergency department.

    PubMed

    Jones, Spencer S; Thomas, Alun; Evans, R Scott; Welch, Shari J; Haug, Peter J; Snow, Gregory L

    2008-02-01

    Shifts in the supply of and demand for emergency department (ED) resources make the efficient allocation of ED resources increasingly important. Forecasting is a vital activity that guides decision-making in many areas of economic, industrial, and scientific planning, but has gained little traction in the health care industry. There are few studies that explore the use of forecasting methods to predict patient volumes in the ED. The goals of this study are to explore and evaluate the use of several statistical forecasting methods to predict daily ED patient volumes at three diverse hospital EDs and to compare the accuracy of these methods to the accuracy of a previously proposed forecasting method. Daily patient arrivals at three hospital EDs were collected for the period January 1, 2005, through March 31, 2007. The authors evaluated the use of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, time series regression, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network models to forecast daily patient volumes at each facility. Forecasts were made for horizons ranging from 1 to 30 days in advance. The forecast accuracy achieved by the various forecasting methods was compared to the forecast accuracy achieved when using a benchmark forecasting method already available in the emergency medicine literature. All time series methods considered in this analysis provided improved in-sample model goodness of fit. However, post-sample analysis revealed that time series regression models that augment linear regression models by accounting for serial autocorrelation offered only small improvements in terms of post-sample forecast accuracy, relative to multiple linear regression models, while seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, exponential smoothing, and artificial neural network forecasting models did not provide consistently accurate forecasts of daily ED volumes. This study confirms the widely held belief that daily demand for ED services is characterized by

  17. Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

    2018-04-01

    This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate

  18. Analog-Based Postprocessing of Navigation-Related Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemri, S.; Klein, B.

    2017-11-01

    Inland waterway transport benefits from probabilistic forecasts of water levels as they allow to optimize the ship load and, hence, to minimize the transport costs. Probabilistic state-of-the-art hydrologic ensemble forecasts inherit biases and dispersion errors from the atmospheric ensemble forecasts they are driven with. The use of statistical postprocessing techniques like ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) allows for a reduction of these systematic errors by fitting a statistical model based on training data. In this study, training periods for EMOS are selected based on forecast analogs, i.e., historical forecasts that are similar to the forecast to be verified. Due to the strong autocorrelation of water levels, forecast analogs have to be selected based on entire forecast hydrographs in order to guarantee similar hydrograph shapes. Custom-tailored measures of similarity for forecast hydrographs comprise hydrological series distance (SD), the hydrological matching algorithm (HMA), and dynamic time warping (DTW). Verification against observations reveals that EMOS forecasts for water level at three gauges along the river Rhine with training periods selected based on SD, HMA, and DTW compare favorably with reference EMOS forecasts, which are based on either seasonal training periods or on training periods obtained by dividing the hydrological forecast trajectories into runoff regimes.

  19. Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van den Hurk, Bart; van Aalst, Maarten K.; Amuron, Irene; Bamanya, Deus; Hauser, Tristan; Jongma, Brenden; Lopez, Ana; Mason, Simon; Mendler de Suarez, Janot; Pappenberger, Florian; Rueth, Alexandra; Stephens, Elisabeth; Suarez, Pablo; Wagemaker, Jurjen; Zsoter, Ervin

    2016-09-01

    Too often, credible scientific early warning information of increased disaster risk does not result in humanitarian action. With financial resources tilted heavily towards response after a disaster, disaster managers have limited incentive and ability to process complex scientific data, including uncertainties. These incentives are beginning to change, with the advent of several new forecast-based financing systems that provide funding based on a forecast of an extreme event. Given the changing landscape, here we demonstrate a method to select and use appropriate forecasts for specific humanitarian disaster prevention actions, even in a data-scarce location. This action-based forecasting methodology takes into account the parameters of each action, such as action lifetime, when verifying a forecast. Forecasts are linked with action based on an understanding of (1) the magnitude of previous flooding events and (2) the willingness to act "in vain" for specific actions. This is applied in the context of the Uganda Red Cross Society forecast-based financing pilot project, with forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). Using this method, we define the "danger level" of flooding, and we select the probabilistic forecast triggers that are appropriate for specific actions. Results from this methodology can be applied globally across hazards and fed into a financing system that ensures that automatic, pre-funded early action will be triggered by forecasts.

  20. Developing air quality forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Pius; Saylor, Rick; Meagher, James

    2012-05-01

    Third International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research; Potomac, Maryland, 29 November to 1 December 2011 Elevated concentrations of both near-surface ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter smaller than 2.5 micrometers in diameter have been implicated in increased mortality and other human health impacts. In light of these known influences on human health, many governments around the world have instituted air quality forecasting systems to provide their citizens with advance warning of impending poor air quality so that they can take actions to limit exposure. In an effort to improve the performance of air quality forecasting systems and provide a forum for the exchange of the latest research in air quality modeling, the International Workshop on Air Quality Forecasting Research (IWAQFR) was established in 2009 and is cosponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environment Canada (EC), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The steering committee for IWAQFR's establishment was composed of Véronique Bouchet, Mike Howe, and Craig Stoud (EC); Greg Carmichael (University of Iowa); Paula Davidson and Jim Meagher (NOAA); and Liisa Jalkanen (WMO). The most recent workshop took place in Maryland.

  1. Student Enrollment Forecasting Techniques for Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ahrens, Stephen W.

    Various techniques used by state agencies, secondary schools, community colleges, and large universities to forecast enrollments are described and guidelines for constructing forecasting procedures are outlined. The forecasting techniques are divided into three categories: (1) quantitative techniques based on historical data that attempt curve…

  2. 7 CFR 612.7 - Forecast user responsibility.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Forecast user responsibility. 612.7 Section 612.7 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE CONSERVATION OPERATIONS SNOW SURVEYS AND WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS § 612.7 Forecast...

  3. Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?

    PubMed

    Jabot, Franck

    2015-05-07

    A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call "the true model myth". Should ecologists go on using the demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated with the fitted to data parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Flood Forecasting in Wales: Challenges and Solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood forecasting in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established forecasting models. As a flood forecasting team we work to develop coastal and fluvial forecasting models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood forecasting system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall forecasting verification • ensemble forecast data • longer range forecast data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping

  5. Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe

    2016-04-01

    Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).

  6. Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow.

    PubMed

    Afilal, Mohamed; Yalaoui, Farouk; Dugardin, Frédéric; Amodeo, Lionel; Laplanche, David; Blua, Philippe

    2016-07-01

    Emergency department (ED) have become the patient's main point of entrance in modern hospitals causing it frequent overcrowding, thus hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to the ED in order to provide better quality service for patients. One of the key elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. In this case, forecasting patients flow, which will help decision makers to optimize human (doctors, nurses…) and material(beds, boxs…) resources allocation. The main interest of this research is forecasting daily attendance at an emergency department. The study was conducted on the Emergency Department of Troyes city hospital center, France, in which we propose a new practical ED patients classification that consolidate the CCMU and GEMSA categories into one category and innovative time-series based models to forecast long and short term daily attendance. The models we developed for this case study shows very good performances (up to 91,24 % for the annual Total flow forecast) and robustness to epidemic periods.

  7. The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF): Its Use in NWS Forecast Operations and Preliminary Verification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reynolds, David; Rasch, William; Kozlowski, Daniel; Burks, Jason; Zavodsky, Bradley; Bernardet, Ligia; Jankov, Isidora; Albers, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast (ExREF) system is a tool for the development and testing of new Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methodologies. ExREF is run in near-realtime by the Global Systems Division (GSD) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and its products are made available through a website, an ftp site, and via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM). The ExREF domain covers most of North America and has 9-km horizontal grid spacing. The ensemble has eight members, all employing WRF-ARW. The ensemble uses a variety of initial conditions from LAPS and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and multiple boundary conditions from the GFS ensemble. Additionally, a diversity of physical parameterizations is used to increase ensemble spread and to account for the uncertainty in forecasting extreme precipitation events. ExREF has been a component of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) NWP suite in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters. A smaller domain covering just the West Coast was created to minimize band-width consumption for the NWS. This smaller domain has and is being distributed to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office and California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento, California, where it is ingested into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS I and II) to provide guidance on the forecasting of extreme precipitation events. This paper will review the cooperative effort employed by NOAA ESRL, NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center), and the NWS to facilitate the ingest and display of ExREF data utilizing the AWIPS I and II D2D and GFE (Graphical Software Editor) software. Within GFE is a very useful verification software package called BoiVer that allows the NWS to utilize the River Forecast Center's 4 km gridded QPE to compare with all operational NWP models 6-hr QPF along with the ExREF mean 6-hr QPF so the forecasters can build confidence in the use of the

  8. CFS Forecast Verification

    Science.gov Websites

    history of Nino3.4 SST anomalies of individual forecasts Forecast anomalies Target season Nino SST Global SST Global Prec Global T2m US Prec US T2m US SM z200 NDJ 2004/2005 Nino SST Global SST Global Prec Global T2m US Prec US T2m US SM z200 DJF 2005 Nino SST Global SST Global Prec Global T2m US Prec US T2m

  9. A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Beckman, Richard J.; Shashaani, Sara; Nagaraj, Kalyani S.; Marathe, Madhav V.

    2013-01-01

    Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlying model parameters during an influenza outbreak. The SIMOP procedure combines an individual-based model and the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method. The method is used to forecast epidemics simulated over synthetic social networks representing Montgomery County in Virginia, Miami, Seattle and surrounding metropolitan regions. The results are presented for the first four weeks. Depending on the synthetic network, the peak time could be predicted within a 95% CI as early as seven weeks before the actual peak. The peak infected and total infected were also accurately forecasted for Montgomery County in Virginia within the forecasting period. Forecasting of the epidemic curve for both seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks is a complex problem, however this is a preliminary step and the results suggest that more can be achieved in this area. PMID:23826222

  10. A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Nsoesie, Elaine O; Beckman, Richard J; Shashaani, Sara; Nagaraj, Kalyani S; Marathe, Madhav V

    2013-01-01

    Reliable forecasts of influenza can aid in the control of both seasonal and pandemic outbreaks. We introduce a simulation optimization (SIMOP) approach for forecasting the influenza epidemic curve. This study represents the final step of a project aimed at using a combination of simulation, classification, statistical and optimization techniques to forecast the epidemic curve and infer underlying model parameters during an influenza outbreak. The SIMOP procedure combines an individual-based model and the Nelder-Mead simplex optimization method. The method is used to forecast epidemics simulated over synthetic social networks representing Montgomery County in Virginia, Miami, Seattle and surrounding metropolitan regions. The results are presented for the first four weeks. Depending on the synthetic network, the peak time could be predicted within a 95% CI as early as seven weeks before the actual peak. The peak infected and total infected were also accurately forecasted for Montgomery County in Virginia within the forecasting period. Forecasting of the epidemic curve for both seasonal and pandemic influenza outbreaks is a complex problem, however this is a preliminary step and the results suggest that more can be achieved in this area.

  11. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    PubMed

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  12. Flare forecasting at the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, S. A.; Bingham, S.; Sharpe, M.; Jackson, D. R.

    2017-04-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre produces 24/7/365 space weather guidance, alerts, and forecasts to a wide range of government and commercial end-users across the United Kingdom. Solar flare forecasts are one of its products, which are issued multiple times a day in two forms: forecasts for each active region on the solar disk over the next 24 h and full-disk forecasts for the next 4 days. Here the forecasting process is described in detail, as well as first verification of archived forecasts using methods commonly used in operational weather prediction. Real-time verification available for operational flare forecasting use is also described. The influence of human forecasters is highlighted, with human-edited forecasts outperforming original model results and forecasting skill decreasing over longer forecast lead times.

  13. On an improvement of UV index forecast: UV index diagnosis and forecast for Belsk, Poland, in Spring/Summer 1999

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krzyścin, J. W.; Jaroslawski, J.; Sobolewski, P.

    2001-10-01

    A forecast of the UV index for the following day is presented. The standard approach to the UV index modelling is applied, i.e., the clear-sky UV index is multiplied by the UV cloud transmission factor. The input to the clear-sky model (tropospheric ultraviolet and visible-TUV model, Madronich, in: M. Tevini (Ed.), Environmental Effects of Ultraviolet Radiation, Lewis Publisher, Boca Raton, /1993, p. 17) consists of the total ozone forecast (by a regression model using the observed and forecasted meteorological variables taken as the initial values of aviation (AVN) global model and their 24-hour forecasts, respectively) and aerosols optical depth (AOD) forecast (assumed persistence). The cloud transmission factor forecast is inferred from the 24-h AVN model run for the total (Sun/+sky) solar irradiance at noon. The model is validated comparing the UV index forecasts with the observed values, which are derived from the daily pattern of the UV erythemal irradiance taken at Belsk (52°N,21°E), Poland, by means of the UV Biometer Solar model 501A for the period May-September 1999. Eighty-one percent and 92% of all forecasts fall into /+/-1 and /+/-2 index unit range, respectively. Underestimation of UV index occurs only in 15%. Thus, the model gives a high security in Sun protection for the public. It is found that in /~35% of all cases a more accurate forecast of AOD is needed to estimate the daily maximum of clear-sky irradiance with the error not exceeding 5%. The assumption of the persistence of the cloud characteristics appears as an alternative to the 24-h forecast of the cloud transmission factor in the case when the AVN prognoses are not available.

  14. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has a long history from meteorological modelling, as an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process the ensembles as the they often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters varying in space and time, while giving a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, which makes it unsuitable for our purpose. Our post-processing method of the ensembles is developed in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu), where we are making forecasts for whole Europe, and based on observations from around 700 catchments. As the target is flood forecasting, we are also more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than in a good prediction of the entire flow regime. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different meteorological forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to estimate the total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but we are adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process to force a spatial correlation of the parameters. The penalty takes

  15. Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barrett, Joe H., III

    2010-01-01

    The expected peak wind speed of the day is an important forecast element in the 45th Weather Squadron's (45 WS) daily 24-Hour and Weekly Planning Forecasts. The forecasts are used for ground and space launch operations at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45 WS also issues wind advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect wind gusts to meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. The 45 WS forecasters have indicated peak wind speeds are challenging to forecast, particularly in the cool season months of October - April. In Phase I of this task, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) developed a tool to help the 45 WS forecast non-convective winds at KSC/CCAFS for the 24-hour period of 0800 to 0800 local time. The tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI). The GUI displayed the forecast of peak wind speed, 5-minute average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, timing of the peak wind and probability the peak speed would meet or exceed 25 kt, 35 kt and 50 kt. For the current task (Phase II ), the 45 WS requested additional observations be used for the creation of the forecast equations by expanding the period of record (POR). Additional parameters were evaluated as predictors, including wind speeds between 500 ft and 3000 ft, static stability classification, Bulk Richardson Number, mixing depth, vertical wind shear, temperature inversion strength and depth and wind direction. Using a verification data set, the AMU compared the performance of the Phase I and II prediction methods. Just as in Phase I, the tool was delivered as a Microsoft Excel GUI. The 45 WS requested the tool also be available in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The AMU first expanded the POR by two years by adding tower observations, surface observations and CCAFS (XMR) soundings for the cool season months of March 2007 to April 2009. The POR was expanded

  16. Teaching ocean wave forecasting using computer-generated visualization and animation—Part 1: sea forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitford, Dennis J.

    2002-05-01

    Ocean waves are the most recognized phenomena in oceanography. Unfortunately, undergraduate study of ocean wave dynamics and forecasting involves mathematics and physics and therefore can pose difficulties with some students because of the subject's interrelated dependence on time and space. Verbal descriptions and two-dimensional illustrations are often insufficient for student comprehension. Computer-generated visualization and animation offer a visually intuitive and pedagogically sound medium to present geoscience, yet there are very few oceanographic examples. A two-part article series is offered to explain ocean wave forecasting using computer-generated visualization and animation. This paper, Part 1, addresses forecasting of sea wave conditions and serves as the basis for the more difficult topic of swell wave forecasting addressed in Part 2. Computer-aided visualization and animation, accompanied by oral explanation, are a welcome pedagogical supplement to more traditional methods of instruction. In this article, several MATLAB ® software programs have been written to visualize and animate development and comparison of wave spectra, wave interference, and forecasting of sea conditions. These programs also set the stage for the more advanced and difficult animation topics in Part 2. The programs are user-friendly, interactive, easy to modify, and developed as instructional tools. By using these software programs, teachers can enhance their instruction of these topics with colorful visualizations and animation without requiring an extensive background in computer programming.

  17. Skill of a global seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, Naze; Winsemius, Hessel; Weerts, Albrecht; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Forecasting of water availability and scarcity is a prerequisite for managing the risks and opportunities caused by the inter-annual variability of streamflow. Reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts are necessary to prepare for an appropriate response in disaster relief, management of hydropower reservoirs, water supply, agriculture and navigation. Seasonal hydrological forecasting on a global scale could be valuable especially for developing regions of the world, where effective hydrological forecasting systems are scarce. In this study, we investigate the forecasting skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. FEWS-World has been setup within the European Commission 7th Framework Programme project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS). Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The assessment in historical simulation mode used a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We assessed the skill of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes in 20 large rivers of the world. This preliminary assessment concluded that the prospects for seasonal forecasting with PCR-GLOBWB or comparable models are positive. However this assessment did not include actual meteorological forecasts. Thus the meteorological forcing errors were not assessed. Yet, in a forecasting setup, the predictive skill of a hydrological forecasting system is affected by errors due to uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode, the model is forced with actual ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. Skill is assessed at 78 stations on large river basins across the globe, for all the months of

  18. The pioneers of weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballard, Susan

    2016-01-01

    In The Weather Experiment author Peter Moore takes us on a compelling journey through the early history of weather forecasting, bringing to life the personalities, lives and achievements of the men who put in place the building blocks required for forecasts to be possible.

  19. Water demand forecasting: review of soft computing methods.

    PubMed

    Ghalehkhondabi, Iman; Ardjmand, Ehsan; Young, William A; Weckman, Gary R

    2017-07-01

    Demand forecasting plays a vital role in resource management for governments and private companies. Considering the scarcity of water and its inherent constraints, demand management and forecasting in this domain are critically important. Several soft computing techniques have been developed over the last few decades for water demand forecasting. This study focuses on soft computing methods of water consumption forecasting published between 2005 and 2015. These methods include artificial neural networks (ANNs), fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy models, support vector machines, metaheuristics, and system dynamics. Furthermore, it was discussed that while in short-term forecasting, ANNs have been superior in many cases, but it is still very difficult to pick a single method as the overall best. According to the literature, various methods and their hybrids are applied to water demand forecasting. However, it seems soft computing has a lot more to contribute to water demand forecasting. These contribution areas include, but are not limited, to various ANN architectures, unsupervised methods, deep learning, various metaheuristics, and ensemble methods. Moreover, it is found that soft computing methods are mainly used for short-term demand forecasting.

  20. Operational forecasting of human-biometeorological conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannaros, T. M.; Lagouvardos, K.; Kotroni, V.; Matzarakis, A.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the development of an operational forecasting service focusing on human-biometeorological conditions. The service is based on the coupling of numerical weather prediction models with an advanced human-biometeorological model. Human thermal perception and stress forecasts are issued on a daily basis for Greece, in both point and gridded format. A user-friendly presentation approach is adopted for communicating the forecasts to the public via the worldwide web. The development of the presented service highlights the feasibility of replacing standard meteorological parameters and/or indices used in operational weather forecasting activities for assessing the thermal environment. This is of particular significance for providing effective, human-biometeorology-oriented, warnings for both heat waves and cold outbreaks.

  1. Impact of Seasonal Forecasts on Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aldor-Noiman, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    More extreme and volatile weather conditions are a threat to U.S. agricultural productivity today, as multiple environmental conditions during the growing season impact crop yields. That's why farmers' agronomic management decisions are dominated by consideration for near, medium and seasonal forecasts of climate. The Climate Corporation aims to help farmers around the world protect and improve their farming operations by providing agronomic decision support tools that leverage forecasts on multiple timescales to provide valuable insights directly to farmers. In this talk, we will discuss the impact of accurate seasonal forecasts on major decisions growers face each season. We will also discuss assessment and evaluation of seasonal forecasts in the context of agricultural applications.

  2. Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucher, M.-A.; Tremblay, D.; Delorme, L.; Perreault, L.; Anctil, F.

    2012-01-01

    SummaryAn increasing number of publications show that ensemble hydrological forecasts exhibit good performance when compared to observed streamflow. Many studies also conclude that ensemble forecasts lead to a better performance than deterministic ones. This investigation takes one step further by not only comparing ensemble and deterministic forecasts to observed values, but by employing the forecasts in a stochastic decision-making assistance tool for hydroelectricity production, during a flood event on the Gatineau River in Canada. This allows the comparison between different types of forecasts according to their value in terms of energy, spillage and storage in a reservoir. The motivation for this is to adopt the point of view of an end-user, here a hydroelectricity production society. We show that ensemble forecasts exhibit excellent performances when compared to observations and are also satisfying when involved in operation management for electricity production. Further improvement in terms of productivity can be reached through the use of a simple post-processing method.

  3. Improved Dust Forecast Products for Southwest Asia Forecasters through Dust Source Database Advancements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brooks, G. R.

    2011-12-01

    Dust storm forecasting is a critical part of military theater operations in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as other strategic areas of the globe. The Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) has been using the Dust Transport Application (DTA) as a forecasting tool since 2001. Initially developed by The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHUAPL), output products include dust concentration and reduction of visibility due to dust. The performance of the products depends on several factors including the underlying dust source database, treatment of soil moisture, parameterization of dust processes, and validity of the input atmospheric model data. Over many years of analysis, seasonal dust forecast biases of the DTA have been observed and documented. As these products are unique and indispensible for U.S. and NATO forces, amendments were required to provide the best forecasts possible. One of the quickest ways to scientifically address the dust concentration biases noted over time was to analyze the weaknesses in, and adjust the dust source database. Dust source database strengths and weaknesses, the satellite analysis and adjustment process, and tests which confirmed the resulting improvements in the final dust concentration and visibility products will be shown.

  4. Evaluation and economic value of winter weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, Derrick W.

    State and local highway agencies spend millions of dollars each year to deploy winter operation teams to plow snow and de-ice roadways. Accurate and timely weather forecast information is critical for effective decision making. Students from Purdue University partnered with the Indiana Department of Transportation to create an experimental winter weather forecast service for the 2012-2013 winter season in Indiana to assist in achieving these goals. One forecast product, an hourly timeline of winter weather hazards produced daily, was evaluated for quality and economic value. Verification of the forecasts was performed with data from the Rapid Refresh numerical weather model. Two objective verification criteria were developed to evaluate the performance of the timeline forecasts. Using both criteria, the timeline forecasts had issues with reliability and discrimination, systematically over-forecasting the amount of winter weather that was observed while also missing significant winter weather events. Despite these quality issues, the forecasts still showed significant, but varied, economic value compared to climatology. Economic value of the forecasts was estimated to be 29.5 million or 4.1 million, depending on the verification criteria used. Limitations of this valuation system are discussed and a framework is developed for more thorough studies in the future.

  5. Beat the Instructor: An Introductory Forecasting Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snider, Brent R.; Eliasson, Janice B.

    2013-01-01

    This teaching brief describes a 30-minute game where student groups compete in-class in an introductory time-series forecasting exercise. The students are challenged to "beat the instructor" who competes using forecasting techniques that will be subsequently taught. All forecasts are graphed prior to revealing the randomly generated…

  6. Prospective Tests of Southern California Earthquake Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jackson, D. D.; Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Helmstetter, A.; Wiemer, S.; Field, N.

    2004-12-01

    We are testing earthquake forecast models prospectively using likelihood ratios. Several investigators have developed such models as part of the Southern California Earthquake Center's project called Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM). Various models are based on fault geometry and slip rates, seismicity, geodetic strain, and stress interactions. Here we describe the testing procedure and present preliminary results. Forecasts are expressed as the yearly rate of earthquakes within pre-specified bins of longitude, latitude, magnitude, and focal mechanism parameters. We test models against each other in pairs, which requires that both forecasts in a pair be defined over the same set of bins. For this reason we specify a standard "menu" of bins and ground rules to guide forecasters in using common descriptions. One menu category includes five-year forecasts of magnitude 5.0 and larger. Contributors will be requested to submit forecasts in the form of a vector of yearly earthquake rates on a 0.1 degree grid at the beginning of the test. Focal mechanism forecasts, when available, are also archived and used in the tests. Interim progress will be evaluated yearly, but final conclusions would be made on the basis of cumulative five-year performance. The second category includes forecasts of earthquakes above magnitude 4.0 on a 0.1 degree grid, evaluated and renewed daily. Final evaluation would be based on cumulative performance over five years. Other types of forecasts with different magnitude, space, and time sampling are welcome and will be tested against other models with shared characteristics. Tests are based on the log likelihood scores derived from the probability that future earthquakes would occur where they do if a given forecast were true [Kagan and Jackson, J. Geophys. Res.,100, 3,943-3,959, 1995]. For each pair of forecasts, we compute alpha, the probability that the first would be wrongly rejected in favor of the second, and beta, the probability

  7. Seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission, Florida.

    PubMed

    Shaman, Jeffrey; Day, Jonathan F; Stieglitz, Marc; Zebiak, Stephen; Cane, Mark

    2004-05-01

    Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empiric relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill-verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empiric disease forecast model.

  8. Seasonal Forecast of St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Transmission, Florida

    PubMed Central

    Day, Jonathan F.; Stieglitz, Marc; Zebiak, Stephen; Cane, Mark

    2004-01-01

    Disease transmission forecasts can help minimize human and domestic animal health risks by indicating where disease control and prevention efforts should be focused. For disease systems in which weather-related variables affect pathogen proliferation, dispersal, or transmission, the potential for disease forecasting exists. We present a seasonal forecast of St. Louis encephalitis virus transmission in Indian River County, Florida. We derive an empirical relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission in humans. We then use these data to forecast SLEV transmission with a seasonal lead. Forecast skill is demonstrated, and a real-time seasonal forecast of epidemic SLEV transmission is presented. This study demonstrates how weather and climate forecast skill verification analyses may be applied to test the predictability of an empirical disease forecast model. PMID:15200812

  9. Operational Earthquake Forecasting of Aftershocks for New England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebel, J.; Fadugba, O. I.

    2015-12-01

    Although the forecasting of mainshocks is not possible, recent research demonstrates that probabilistic forecasts of expected aftershock activity following moderate and strong earthquakes is possible. Previous work has shown that aftershock sequences in intraplate regions behave similarly to those in California, and thus the operational aftershocks forecasting methods that are currently employed in California can be adopted for use in areas of the eastern U.S. such as New England. In our application, immediately after a felt earthquake in New England, a forecast of expected aftershock activity for the next 7 days will be generated based on a generic aftershock activity model. Approximately 24 hours after the mainshock, the parameters of the aftershock model will be updated using the observed aftershock activity observed to that point in time, and a new forecast of expected aftershock activity for the next 7 days will be issued. The forecast will estimate the average number of weak, felt aftershocks and the average expected number of aftershocks based on the aftershock statistics of past New England earthquakes. The forecast also will estimate the probability that an earthquake that is stronger than the mainshock will take place during the next 7 days. The aftershock forecast will specify the expected aftershocks locations as well as the areas over which aftershocks of different magnitudes could be felt. The system will use web pages, email and text messages to distribute the aftershock forecasts. For protracted aftershock sequences, new forecasts will be issued on a regular basis, such as weekly. Initially, the distribution system of the aftershock forecasts will be limited, but later it will be expanded as experience with and confidence in the system grows.

  10. Forecasting approaches to the Mekong River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plate, E. J.

    2009-04-01

    Hydrologists distinguish between flood forecasts, which are concerned with events of the immediate future, and flood predictions, which are concerned with events that are possible, but whose date of occurrence is not determined. Although in principle both involve the determination of runoff from rainfall, the analytical approaches differ because of different objectives. The differences between the two approaches will be discussed, starting with an analysis of the forecasting process. The Mekong River in south-east Asia is used as an example. Prediction is defined as forecast for a hypothetical event, such as the 100-year flood, which is usually sufficiently specified by its magnitude and its probability of occurrence. It forms the basis for designing flood protection structures and risk management activities. The method for determining these quantities is hydrological modeling combined with extreme value statistics, today usually applied both to rainfall events and to observed river discharges. A rainfall-runoff model converts extreme rainfall events into extreme discharges, which at certain gage points along a river are calibrated against observed discharges. The quality of the model output is assessed against the mean value by means of the Nash-Sutcliffe quality criterion. The result of this procedure is a design hydrograph (or a family of design hydrographs) which are used as inputs into a hydraulic model, which converts the hydrograph into design water levels according to the hydraulic situation of the location. The accuracy of making a prediction in this sense is not particularly high: hydrologists know that the 100-year flood is a statistical quantity which can be estimated only within comparatively wide error bounds, and the hydraulics of a river site, in particular under conditions of heavy sediment loads has many uncertainties. Safety margins, such as additional freeboards are arranged to compensate for the uncertainty of the prediction. Forecasts, on the

  11. History of chemically and radiatively important atmospheric gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prinn, Ronald G.; Weiss, Ray F.; Arduini, Jgor; Arnold, Tim; Langley DeWitt, H.; Fraser, Paul J.; Ganesan, Anita L.; Gasore, Jimmy; Harth, Christina M.; Hermansen, Ove; Kim, Jooil; Krummel, Paul B.; Li, Shanlan; Loh, Zoë M.; Lunder, Chris R.; Maione, Michela; Manning, Alistair J.; Miller, Ben R.; Mitrevski, Blagoj; Mühle, Jens; O'Doherty, Simon; Park, Sunyoung; Reimann, Stefan; Rigby, Matt; Saito, Takuya; Salameh, Peter K.; Schmidt, Roland; Simmonds, Peter G.; Steele, L. Paul; Vollmer, Martin K.; Wang, Ray H.; Yao, Bo; Yokouchi, Yoko; Young, Dickon; Zhou, Lingxi

    2018-06-01

    We present the organization, instrumentation, datasets, data interpretation, modeling, and accomplishments of the multinational global atmospheric measurement program AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment). AGAGE is distinguished by its capability to measure globally, at high frequency, and at multiple sites all the important species in the Montreal Protocol and all the important non-carbon-dioxide (non-CO2) gases assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (CO2 is also measured at several sites). The scientific objectives of AGAGE are important in furthering our understanding of global chemical and climatic phenomena. They are the following: (1) to accurately measure the temporal and spatial distributions of anthropogenic gases that contribute the majority of reactive halogen to the stratosphere and/or are strong infrared absorbers (chlorocarbons, chlorofluorocarbons - CFCs, bromocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons - HCFCs, hydrofluorocarbons - HFCs and polyfluorinated compounds (perfluorocarbons - PFCs), nitrogen trifluoride - NF3, sulfuryl fluoride - SO2F2, and sulfur hexafluoride - SF6) and use these measurements to determine the global rates of their emission and/or destruction (i.e., lifetimes); (2) to accurately measure the global distributions and temporal behaviors and determine the sources and sinks of non-CO2 biogenic-anthropogenic gases important to climate change and/or ozone depletion (methane - CH4, nitrous oxide - N2O, carbon monoxide - CO, molecular hydrogen - H2, methyl chloride - CH3Cl, and methyl bromide - CH3Br); (3) to identify new long-lived greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases (e.g., SO2F2, NF3, heavy PFCs (C4F10, C5F12, C6F14, C7F16, and C8F18) and hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs; e.g., CH2 = CFCF3) have been identified in AGAGE), initiate the real-time monitoring of these new gases, and reconstruct their past histories from AGAGE, air archive, and firn air measurements; (4) to determine the average concentrations and

  12. Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prinn, Ronald G.

    2001-01-01

    AGAGE comprises continuous high frequency in-situ gas chromatographic FID/ECD measurements of two biogenic/anthropogenic gases (CH4, N2O) and five anthropogenic gases (CFCl3, CF2Cl2, CH3CCl3, CF2ClCFCl2, CCl4) which are carried out at five globally distributed sites (Ireland, California, Barbados, Samoa, Tasmania). Also, high frequency in-situ gas-chromatographic mass spectrometric measurements of about 30 species including chlorofluorocarbon replacements and many natural halocarbons are made at two sites (Ireland, Tasmania), and will soon begin at the other three sites. Finally, high frequency in-situ gas chromatographic HgO-RD measurements of CO and H2 are performed at two sites (Ireland, Tasmania). The goal is quantitative determination of the sources, sinks, and circulation of these environmentally important gases.

  13. Land-Breeze Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Wheeler, Mark M.; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The nocturnal land breeze at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) is both operationally significant and challenging to forecast. The occurrence and timing of land breezes impact low-level winds, atmospheric stability, low temperatures, and fog development. Accurate predictions of the land breeze are critical for toxic material dispersion forecasts associated with space launch missions, since wind direction and low-level stability can change noticeably with the onset of a land breeze. This report presents a seven-year observational study of land breezes over east-central Florida from 1995 to 2001. This comprehensive analysis was enabled by the high-resolution tower observations over KSC/CCAFS. Five-minute observations of winds, temperature, and moisture along with 9 15-MHz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler data were used to analyze specific land-breeze cases, while the tower data were used to construct a composite climatology. Utilities derived from this climatology were developed to assist forecasters in determining the land-breeze occurrence, timing, and movement based on predicted meteorological conditions.

  14. Erosion patterns on dissolving blocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Courrech du Pont, Sylvain; Cohen, Caroline; Derr, Julien; Berhanu, Michael

    2016-04-01

    Patterns in nature are shaped under water flows and wind action, and the understanding of their morphodynamics goes through the identification of the physical mechanisms at play. When a dissoluble body is exposed to a water flow, typical patterns with scallop-like shapes may appear [1,2]. These shapes are observed on the walls of underground rivers or icebergs. We experimentally study the erosion of dissolving bodies made of salt, caramel or ice into water solutions without external flow. The dissolving mixture, which is created at the solid/liquid interface, undergoes a buoyancy-driven instability comparable to a Rayleigh-Bénard instability so that the dissolving front destabilizes into filaments. This mechanism yields to spatial variations of solute concentration and to differential dissolution of the dissolving block. We first observe longitudinal stripes with a well defined wavelength, which evolve towards chevrons and scallops that interact and move again the dissolving current. Thanks to a careful analysis of the competing physical mechanisms, we propose scaling laws, which account for the characteristic lengths and times of the early regime in experiments. The long-term evolution of patterns is understood qualitatively. A close related mechanism has been proposed to explain structures observed on the basal boundary of ice cover on brakish lakes [3] and we suggest that our experiments are analogous and explain the scallop-like patterns on iceberg walls. [1] P. Meakin and B. Jamtveit, Geological pattern formation by growth and dissolution in aqueous systems, Proc. R. Soc. A 466, 659-694 (2010). [2] P.N. Blumberg and R.L. Curl, Experimental and theoretical studies of dissolution roughness, J. Fluid Mech. 65, 735-751 (1974). [3] L. Solari and G. Parker, Morphodynamic modelling of the basal boundary of ice cover on brakish lakes, J.G.R. 118, 1432-1442 (2013).

  15. Application of satellite-based rainfall and medium range meteorological forecast in real-time flood forecasting in the Mahanadi River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanda, Trushnamayee; Beria, Harsh; Sahoo, Bhabagrahi; Chatterjee, Chandranath

    2016-04-01

    Increasing frequency of hydrologic extremes in a warming climate call for the development of reliable flood forecasting systems. The unavailability of meteorological parameters in real-time, especially in the developing parts of the world, makes it a challenging task to accurately predict flood, even at short lead times. The satellite-based Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides an alternative to the real-time precipitation data scarcity. Moreover, rainfall forecasts by the numerical weather prediction models such as the medium term forecasts issued by the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are promising for multistep-ahead flow forecasts. We systematically evaluate these rainfall products over a large catchment in Eastern India (Mahanadi River basin). We found spatially coherent trends, with both the real-time TRMM rainfall and ECMWF rainfall forecast products overestimating low rainfall events and underestimating high rainfall events. However, no significant bias was found for the medium rainfall events. Another key finding was that these rainfall products captured the phase of the storms pretty well, but suffered from consistent under-prediction. The utility of the real-time TRMM and ECMWF forecast products are evaluated by rainfall-runoff modeling using different artificial neural network (ANN)-based models up to 3-days ahead. Keywords: TRMM; ECMWF; forecast; ANN; rainfall-runoff modeling

  16. Method for enhancing microbial utilization rates of gases using perfluorocarbons

    DOEpatents

    Turick, C.E.

    1997-06-10

    A method of enhancing the bacterial reduction of industrial gases using perfluorocarbons (PFCs) is disclosed. Because perfluorocarbons (PFCs) allow for a much greater solubility of gases than water does, PFCs have the potential to deliver gases in higher concentrations to microorganisms when used as an additive to microbial growth media thereby increasing the rate of the industrial gas conversion to economically viable chemicals and gases. 3 figs.

  17. Method for enhancing microbial utilization rates of gases using perfluorocarbons

    DOEpatents

    Turick, Charles E.

    1997-01-01

    A method of enhancing the bacterial reduction of industrial gases using perfluorocarbons (PFCs) is disclosed. Because perfluorocarbons (PFCs) allow for a much greater solubility of gases than water does, PFCs have the potential to deliver gases in higher concentrations to microorganisms when used as an additive to microbial growth media thereby increasing the rate of the industrial gas conversion to economically viable chemicals and gases.

  18. Method for monitoring stack gases for uranium activity

    DOEpatents

    Beverly, C.R.; Ernstberger, E.G.

    1985-07-03

    A method for monitoring the stack gases of a purge cascade of gaseous diffusion plant for uranium activity. A sample stream is taken from the stack gases and contacted with a volume of moisture-laden air for converting trace levels of uranium hexafluoride, if any, in the stack gases into particulate uranyl fluoride. A continuous strip of filter paper from a supply roll is passed through this sampling stream to intercept and gather any uranyl fluoride in the sampling stream. This filter paper is then passed by an alpha scintillation counting device where any radioactivity on the filter paper is sensed so as to provide a continuous monitoring of the gas stream for activity indicative of the uranium content in the stack gases. 1 fig.

  19. Method for monitoring stack gases for uranium activity

    DOEpatents

    Beverly, Claude R.; Ernstberger, Harold G.

    1988-01-01

    A method for monitoring the stack gases of a purge cascade of a gaseous diffusion plant for uranium activity. A sample stream is taken from the stack gases and contacted with a volume of moisture-laden air for converting trace levels of uranium hexafluoride, if any, in the stack gases into particulate uranyl fluoride. A continuous strip of filter paper from a supply roll is passed through this sampling stream to intercept and gather any uranyl fluoride in the sampling stream. This filter paper is then passed by an alpha scintillation counting device where any radioactivity on the filter paper is sensed so as to provide a continuous monitoring of the gas stream for activity indicative of the uranium content in the stack gases.

  20. Non-CO2 greenhouse gases and climate change.

    PubMed

    Montzka, S A; Dlugokencky, E J; Butler, J H

    2011-08-03

    Earth's climate is warming as a result of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from fossil fuel combustion. Anthropogenic emissions of non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting substances (largely from sources other than fossil fuels), also contribute significantly to warming. Some non-CO(2) greenhouse gases have much shorter lifetimes than CO(2), so reducing their emissions offers an additional opportunity to lessen future climate change. Although it is clear that sustainably reducing the warming influence of greenhouse gases will be possible only with substantial cuts in emissions of CO(2), reducing non-CO(2) greenhouse gas emissions would be a relatively quick way of contributing to this goal.

  1. Resources and Long-Range Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Waldo E.

    1973-01-01

    The author argues that forecasts of quick depletion of resources in the environment as a result of overpopulation and increased usage may not be free from error. Ignorance still exists in understanding the recovery mechanisms of nature. Long-range forecasts are likely to be wrong in such situations. (PS)

  2. Statistical and Hydrological evaluation of precipitation forecasts from IMD MME and ECMWF numerical weather forecasts for Indian River basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohite, A. R.; Beria, H.; Behera, A. K.; Chatterjee, C.; Singh, R.

    2016-12-01

    Flood forecasting using hydrological models is an important and cost-effective non-structural flood management measure. For forecasting at short lead times, empirical models using real-time precipitation estimates have proven to be reliable. However, their skill depreciates with increasing lead time. Coupling a hydrologic model with real-time rainfall forecasts issued from numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems could increase the lead time substantially. In this study, we compared 1-5 days precipitation forecasts from India Meteorological Department (IMD) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) with European Center for Medium Weather forecast (ECMWF) NWP forecasts for over 86 major river basins in India. We then evaluated the hydrologic utility of these forecasts over Basantpur catchment (approx. 59,000 km2) of the Mahanadi River basin. Coupled MIKE 11 RR (NAM) and MIKE 11 hydrodynamic (HD) models were used for the development of flood forecast system (FFS). RR model was calibrated using IMD station rainfall data. Cross-sections extracted from SRTM 30 were used as input to the MIKE 11 HD model. IMD started issuing operational MME forecasts from the year 2008, and hence, both the statistical and hydrologic evaluation were carried out from 2008-2014. The performance of FFS was evaluated using both the NWP datasets separately for the year 2011, which was a large flood year in Mahanadi River basin. We will present figures and metrics for statistical (threshold based statistics, skill in terms of correlation and bias) and hydrologic (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, mean and peak error statistics) evaluation. The statistical evaluation will be at pan-India scale for all the major river basins and the hydrologic evaluation will be for the Basantpur catchment of the Mahanadi River basin.

  3. How is the weather? Forecasting inpatient glycemic control

    PubMed Central

    Saulnier, George E; Castro, Janna C; Cook, Curtiss B; Thompson, Bithika M

    2017-01-01

    Aim: Apply methods of damped trend analysis to forecast inpatient glycemic control. Method: Observed and calculated point-of-care blood glucose data trends were determined over 62 weeks. Mean absolute percent error was used to calculate differences between observed and forecasted values. Comparisons were drawn between model results and linear regression forecasting. Results: The forecasted mean glucose trends observed during the first 24 and 48 weeks of projections compared favorably to the results provided by linear regression forecasting. However, in some scenarios, the damped trend method changed inferences compared with linear regression. In all scenarios, mean absolute percent error values remained below the 10% accepted by demand industries. Conclusion: Results indicate that forecasting methods historically applied within demand industries can project future inpatient glycemic control. Additional study is needed to determine if forecasting is useful in the analyses of other glucometric parameters and, if so, how to apply the techniques to quality improvement. PMID:29134125

  4. Solar and Wind Forecasting | Grid Modernization | NREL

    Science.gov Websites

    and Wind Forecasting Solar and Wind Forecasting As solar and wind power become more common system operators. An aerial photo of the National Wind Technology Center's PV arrays. Capabilities value of accurate forecasting Wind power visualization to direct questions and feedback during industry

  5. 40 CFR 258.23 - Explosive gases control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Explosive gases control. 258.23... FOR MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE LANDFILLS Operating Criteria § 258.23 Explosive gases control. (a) Owners or... facility does not exceed 25 percent of the lower explosive limit for methane in facility structures...

  6. 40 CFR 258.23 - Explosive gases control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Explosive gases control. 258.23... FOR MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE LANDFILLS Operating Criteria § 258.23 Explosive gases control. (a) Owners or... facility does not exceed 25 percent of the lower explosive limit for methane in facility structures...

  7. Monitoring and seasonal forecasting of meteorological droughts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dutra, Emanuel; Pozzi, Will; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; Magnusson, Linus; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo; Vogt, Jurgen; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Near-real time drought monitoring can provide decision makers valuable information for use in several areas, such as water resources management, or international aid. Unfortunately, a major constraint in current drought outlooks is the lack of reliable monitoring capability for observed precipitation globally in near-real time. Furthermore, drought monitoring systems requires a long record of past observations to provide mean climatological conditions. We address these constraints by developing a novel drought monitoring approach in which monthly mean precipitation is derived from short-range using ECMWF probabilistic forecasts and then merged with the long term precipitation climatology of the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) dataset. Merging the two makes available a real-time global precipitation product out of which the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) can be estimated and used for global or regional drought monitoring work. This approach provides stability in that by-passes problems of latency (lags) in having local rain-gauge measurements available in real time or lags in satellite precipitation products. Seasonal drought forecasts can also be prepared using the common methodology and based upon two data sources used to provide initial conditions (GPCC and the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI) combined with either the current ECMWF seasonal forecast or a climatology based upon ensemble forecasts. Verification of the forecasts as a function of lead time revealed a reduced impact on skill for: (i) long lead times using different initial conditions, and (ii) short lead times using different precipitation forecasts. The memory effect of initial conditions was found to be 1 month lead time for the SPI-3, 3 to 4 months for the SPI-6 and 5 months for the SPI-12. Results show that dynamical forecasts of precipitation provide added value, a skill similar to or better than climatological forecasts. In some cases, particularly for long SPI time

  8. The Texas Children's Hospital immunization forecaster: conceptualization to implementation.

    PubMed

    Cunningham, Rachel M; Sahni, Leila C; Kerr, G Brady; King, Laura L; Bunker, Nathan A; Boom, Julie A

    2014-12-01

    Immunization forecasting systems evaluate patient vaccination histories and recommend the dates and vaccines that should be administered. We described the conceptualization, development, implementation, and distribution of a novel immunization forecaster, the Texas Children's Hospital (TCH) Forecaster. In 2007, TCH convened an internal expert team that included a pediatrician, immunization nurse, software engineer, and immunization subject matter experts to develop the TCH Forecaster. Our team developed the design of the model, wrote the software, populated the Excel tables, integrated the software, and tested the Forecaster. We created a table of rules that contained each vaccine's recommendations, minimum ages and intervals, and contraindications, which served as the basis for the TCH Forecaster. We created 15 vaccine tables that incorporated 79 unique dose states and 84 vaccine types to operationalize the entire United States recommended immunization schedule. The TCH Forecaster was implemented throughout the TCH system, the Indian Health Service, and the Virginia Department of Health. The TCH Forecast Tester is currently being used nationally. Immunization forecasting systems might positively affect adherence to vaccine recommendations. Efforts to support health care provider utilization of immunization forecasting systems and to evaluate their impact on patient care are needed.

  9. Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks.

    PubMed

    Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2017-10-13

    For influenza forecasts generated using dynamical models, forecast inaccuracy is partly attributable to the nonlinear growth of error. As a consequence, quantification of the nonlinear error structure in current forecast models is needed so that this growth can be corrected and forecast skill improved. Here, we inspect the error growth of a compartmental influenza model and find that a robust error structure arises naturally from the nonlinear model dynamics. By counteracting these structural errors, diagnosed using error breeding, we develop a new forecast approach that combines dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques. In retrospective forecasts of historical influenza outbreaks for 95 US cities from 2003 to 2014, overall forecast accuracy for outbreak peak timing, peak intensity and attack rate, are substantially improved for predicted lead times up to 10 weeks. This error growth correction method can be generalized to improve the forecast accuracy of other infectious disease dynamical models.Inaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques.

  10. Multi-Year Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting for Small Municipal Governments.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-03-01

    Management Audit Econometric Revenue Forecast Gap and Impact Analysis Deterministic Expenditure Forecast Municipal Forecasting Municipal Budget Formlto...together with a multi-year revenue and expenditure forecasting model for the City of Monterey, California. The Monterey model includes an econometric ...65 5 D. FORECAST BASED ON THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL ------- 67 E. FORECAST BASED ON EXPERT JUDGMENT AND TREND ANALYSIS

  11. Improving operational plume forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2012-04-01

    Forecasting how plumes of particles, such as radioactive particles from a nuclear disaster, will be transported and dispersed in the atmosphere is an important but computationally challenging task. During the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan, operational plume forecasts were produced each day, but as the emissions continued, previous emissions were not included in the simulations used for forecasts because it became impractical to rerun the simulations each day from the beginning of the accident. Draxler and Rolph examine whether it is possible to improve plume simulation speed and flexibility as conditions and input data change. The authors use a method known as a transfer coefficient matrix approach that allows them to simulate many radionuclides using only a few generic species for the computation. Their simulations work faster by dividing the computation into separate independent segments in such a way that the most computationally time consuming pieces of the calculation need to be done only once. This makes it possible to provide real-time operational plume forecasts by continuously updating the previous simulations as new data become available. They tested their method using data from the Fukushima incident to show that it performed well. (Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2011JD017205, 2012)

  12. New product forecasting with limited or no data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ismai, Zuhaimy; Abu, Noratikah; Sufahani, Suliadi

    2016-10-01

    In the real world, forecasts would always be based on historical data with the assumption that the behaviour be the same for the future. But how do we forecast when there is no such data available? New product or new technologies normally has limited amount of data available. Knowing that forecasting is valuable for decision making, this paper presents forecasting of new product or new technologies using aggregate diffusion models and modified Bass Model. A newly launched Proton car and its penetration was chosen to demonstrate the possibility of forecasting sales demand where there is limited or no data available. The model was developed to forecast diffusion of new vehicle or an innovation in the Malaysian society. It is to represent the level of spread on the new vehicle among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new product. This model will forecast the car sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed diffusion model and numerical calculation shows that the model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of the new vehicle. The results reveal that newly developed modified Bass diffusion of demand function has significantly contributed for forecasting the diffusion of new Proton car or new product.

  13. AC BREAKDOWN IN GASES

    DTIC Science & Technology

    electron- emission (multipactor) region, and (3) the low-frequency region. The breakdown mechanism in each of these regions is explained. An extensive bibliography on AC breakdown in gases is included.

  14. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katz, Richard W.; Murphy, Allan H.

    1997-06-01

    Weather and climate extremes can significantly impact the economics of a region. This book examines how weather and climate forecasts can be used to mitigate the impact of the weather on the economy. Interdisciplinary in scope, it explores the meteorological, economic, psychological, and statistical aspects of weather prediction. Chapters by area specialists provide a comprehensive view of this timely topic. They encompass forecasts over a wide range of temporal scales, from weather over the next few hours to the climate months or seasons ahead, and address the impact of these forecasts on human behavior. Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts seeks to determine the economic benefits of existing weather forecasting systems and the incremental benefits of improving these systems, and will be an interesting and essential text for economists, statisticians, and meteorologists.

  15. Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil's social security system.

    PubMed

    Silva, Carlos Patrick Alves da; Puty, Claudio Alberto Castelo Branco; Silva, Marcelino Silva da; Carvalho, Solon Venâncio de; Francês, Carlos Renato Lisboa

    2017-01-01

    Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government's proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts.

  16. Effects of dissolved organic matter from a eutrophic lake on the freely dissolved concentrations of emerging organic contaminants.

    PubMed

    Xiao, Yi-Hua; Huang, Qing-Hui; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Li, Fei-Peng; Chen, Ling

    2014-08-01

    The authors studied the effects of dissolved organic matter (DOM) on the bioavailability of bisphenol A (BPA) and chloramphenicol by measuring the freely dissolved concentrations of the contaminants in solutions containing DOM that had been isolated from a mesocosm in a eutrophic lake. The abundance and aromaticity of the chromophoric DOM increased over the 25-d mesocosm experiment. The BPA freely dissolved concentration was 72.3% lower and the chloramphenicol freely dissolved concentration was 56.2% lower using DOM collected on day 25 than using DOM collected on day 1 of the mesocosm experiment. The freely dissolved concentrations negatively correlated with the ultraviolent absorption coefficient at 254 nm and positively correlated with the spectral slope of chromophoric DOM, suggesting that the bioavailability of these emerging organic contaminants depends on the characteristics of the DOM present. The DOM-water partition coefficients (log KOC ) for the emerging organic contaminants positively correlated with the aromaticity of the DOM, measured as humic acid-like fluorescent components C1 (excitation/emission=250[313]/412 nm) and C2 (excitation/emission=268[379]/456 nm). The authors conclude that the bioavailability of emerging organic contaminants in eutrophic lakes can be affected by changes in the DOM. © 2014 SETAC.

  17. Forecast Mekong 2012: Building scientific capacity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stefanov, James E.

    2012-01-01

    In 2009, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton joined the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam in launching the Lower Mekong Initiative to enhance U.S. engagement with the countries of the Lower Mekong River Basin in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey Forecast Mekong supports the Lower Mekong Initiative through a variety of activities. The principal objectives of Forecast Mekong include the following: * Build scientific capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin and promote cooperation and collaboration among scientists working in the region. * Provide data, information, and scientific models to help resource managers there make informed decisions. * Produce forecasting and visualization tools to support basin planning, including climate change adaptation. The focus of this product is Forecast Mekong accomplishments and current activities related to the development of scientific capacity at organizations and institutions in the region. Building on accomplishments in 2010 and 2011, Forecast Mekong continues to enhance scientific capacity in the Lower Mekong Basin with a suite of activities in 2012.

  18. Verification of different forecasts of Hungarian Meteorological Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feher, B.

    2009-09-01

    In this paper I show the results of the forecasts made by the Hungarian Meteorological Service. I focus on the general short- and medium-range forecasts, which contains cloudiness, precipitation, wind speed and temperature for six regions of Hungary. I would like to show the results of some special forecasts as well, such as precipitation predictions which are made for the catchment area of Danube and Tisza rivers, and daily mean temperature predictions used by Hungarian energy companies. The product received by the user is made by the general forecaster, but these predictions are based on the ALADIN and ECMWF outputs. Because of these, the product of the forecaster and the models were also verified. Method like this is able to show us, which weather elements are more difficult to forecast or which regions have higher errors. During the verification procedure the basic errors (mean error, mean absolute error) are calculated. Precipitation amount is classified into five categories, and scores like POD, TS, PC,…etc. were defined by contingency table determined by these categories. The procedure runs fully automatically, all the things forecasters have to do is to print the daily result each morning. Beside the daily result, verification is also made for longer periods like week, month or year. Analyzing the results of longer periods we can say that the best predictions are made for the first few days, and precipitation forecasts are less good for mountainous areas, even, the scores of the forecasters sometimes are higher than the errors of the models. Since forecaster receive results next day, it can helps him/her to reduce mistakes and learn the weakness of the models. This paper contains the verification scores, their trends, the method by which these scores are calculated, and some case studies on worse forecasts.

  19. Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in

  20. Social Indicators and Social Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnston, Denis F.

    The paper identifies major types of social indicators and explains how they can be used in social forecasting. Social indicators are defined as statistical measures relating to major areas of social concern and/or individual well being. Examples of social indicators are projections, forecasts, outlook statements, time-series statistics, and…

  1. Analytical method for dissolved-organic carbon fractionation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leenheer, Jerry A.; Huffman, Edward W. D.

    1979-01-01

    A standard procedure for analytical-scale dissolved organic carbon fractionation is presented, whereby dissolved organic carbon in water is first fractionated by a nonionic macroreticular resin into acid, base, and neutral hydrophobic organic solute fractions, and next fractionated by ion-exchange resins into acid, base, and neutral hydrophilic solute fractions. The hydrophobic solutes are defined as those sorbed on a nonionic, acrylic-ester macroreticular resin and are differentiated into acid, base, and nautral fractions by sorption/desorption controlled by pH adjustment. The hydrophilic bases are next sorbed on strong-acid ion-exchange resin, followed by sorption of hydrophilic acids on a strong-base ion-exchange resin. Hydrophilic neutrals are not sorbed and remain dissolved in the deionized water at the end of the fractionation procedure. The complete fractionation can be performed on a 200-milliliter filtered water sample, whose dissolved organic carbon content is 5-25 mg/L and whose specific conductance is less than 2,000 μmhos/cm at 25°C. The applications of dissolved organic carbon fractionation analysis range from field studies of changes of organic solute composition with synthetic fossil fuel production, to fundamental studies of the nature of sorption processes.

  2. Can Business Students Forecast Their Own Grade?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hossain, Belayet; Tsigaris, Panagiotis

    2013-01-01

    This study examines grade expectations of two groups of business students for their final course mark. We separate students that are on average "better" forecasters on the basis of them not making significant forecast errors during the semester from those students that are poor forecasters of their final grade. We find that the better…

  3. The meta-Gaussian Bayesian Processor of forecasts and associated preliminary experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Fajing; Jiao, Meiyan; Chen, Jing

    2013-04-01

    Public weather services are trending toward providing users with probabilistic weather forecasts, in place of traditional deterministic forecasts. Probabilistic forecasting techniques are continually being improved to optimize available forecasting information. The Bayesian Processor of Forecast (BPF), a new statistical method for probabilistic forecast, can transform a deterministic forecast into a probabilistic forecast according to the historical statistical relationship between observations and forecasts generated by that forecasting system. This technique accounts for the typical forecasting performance of a deterministic forecasting system in quantifying the forecast uncertainty. The meta-Gaussian likelihood model is suitable for a variety of stochastic dependence structures with monotone likelihood ratios. The meta-Gaussian BPF adopting this kind of likelihood model can therefore be applied across many fields, including meteorology and hydrology. The Bayes theorem with two continuous random variables and the normal-linear BPF are briefly introduced. The meta-Gaussian BPF for a continuous predictand using a single predictor is then presented and discussed. The performance of the meta-Gaussian BPF is tested in a preliminary experiment. Control forecasts of daily surface temperature at 0000 UTC at Changsha and Wuhan stations are used as the deterministic forecast data. These control forecasts are taken from ensemble predictions with a 96-h lead time generated by the National Meteorological Center of the China Meteorological Administration, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction during January 2008. The results of the experiment show that the meta-Gaussian BPF can transform a deterministic control forecast of surface temperature from any one of the three ensemble predictions into a useful probabilistic forecast of surface temperature. These probabilistic forecasts quantify the uncertainty

  4. METHOD OF DISSOLVING URANIUM METAL

    DOEpatents

    Slotin, L.A.

    1958-02-18

    This patent relates to an economicai means of dissolving metallic uranium. It has been found that the addition of a small amount of perchloric acid to the concentrated nitric acid in which the uranium is being dissolved greatly shortens the time necessary for dissolution of the metal. Thus the use of about 1 or 2 percent of perchioric acid based on the weight of the nitric acid used, reduces the time of dissolution of uranium by a factor of about 100.

  5. Learning the Critical Points for Addition in Matematika GASING

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Siregar, Johannes Hamonangan; Wiyanti, Wiwik; Wakhyuningsih, Nur Safitri; Godjali, Ali

    2014-01-01

    We propose learning Matematika GASING to help students better understand the addition material. Matematika GASING is a way of learning mathematics in an easy, fun and enjoyable fashion. GASING is short for GAmpang, aSyIk, and menyenaNGkan (Bahasa Indonesia for easy, fun and enjoyable). It was originally developed by Prof. Yohanes Surya at the…

  6. Ecosystem Metabolism and Air-Water Fluxes of Greenhouse Gases in High Arctic Wetland Ponds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehnherr, I.; Venkiteswaran, J.; St. Louis, V. L.; Emmerton, C.; Schiff, S. L.

    2012-12-01

    Freshwater lakes and wetlands can be very productive systems on the Arctic landscape compared to terrestrial tundra ecosystems and provide valuable resources to many organisms, including waterfowl, fish and humans. Rates of ecosystem productivity dictate how much energy flows through food webs, impacting the abundance of higher-level organisms (e.g., fish), as well as the net carbon balance, which determines whether a particular ecosystem is a source or sink of carbon. Climate change is predicted to result in warmer temperatures, increased precipitation and permafrost melting in the Arctic and is already altering northern ecosystems at unprecedented rates; however, it is not known how freshwater systems are responding to these changes. To predict how freshwater systems will respond to complex environmental changes, it is necessary to understand the key processes, such as primary production and ecosystem respiration, that are driving these systems. We sampled wetland ponds (n=8) and lakes (n=2) on northern Ellesmere Island (81° N, Nunavut, Canada) during the open water season for a suite of biogeochemical parameters, including concentrations of dissolved gases (O2, CO2, CH4, N2O) as well as stable-isotope ratios of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13C-DIC), dissolved oxygen (δ18O-DO), and water (δ18O-H2O). We will present rates of primary production and ecosystem respiration, modeled from the concentration and stable isotope ratios of DIC and DO, as well as air-water gas exchange of greenhouse gases in these high Arctic ponds and lakes. Preliminary results demonstrate that ecosystem metabolism in these ponds was high enough to result in significant deviations in the isotope ratios of DIC and DO from atmospheric equilibrium conditions. In other words ecosystem rates of primary production and respiration were faster than gas exchange even in these small, shallow, well-mixed ponds. Furthermore, primary production was elevated enough at all sites except Lake Hazen, a

  7. Ability of rabbit alveolar macrophages to dissolve metals.

    PubMed

    Lundborg, M; Lind, B; Camner, P

    1984-01-01

    Manganese dioxide particles, 0.1-0.5 micron, were added to samples of 2-3 X 10(6) rabbit alveolar macrophages. The amount of manganese added and dissolved from the particles, over periods of 0, 1, 3, and 5 days, was determined by flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Macrophages from six rabbits received about 10 micrograms of Mn, macrophages from two rabbits about 30 micrograms, and macrophages from another two rabbits about 100 micrograms. Over periods of 1, 3, and 5 days the macrophages in all three dose groups dissolved two to three times more Mn than was dissolved in control experiments. In control experiments solubility was studied in the medium without macrophages. Macrophages cultivated 3 days before the addition of MnO2 dissolved the particles within another 2 days to an extent similar to that in the control experiments. The ability of the macrophages to dissolve MnO2 particles might be related to the low pH values in the phagosomes. Studies of the ability of macrophages from various species to dissolve metal particles as well as of pH values in their phagosomes might lead to a better understanding of alveolar clearance of metal particles.

  8. 40 CFR 258.23 - Explosive gases control.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Explosive gases control. 258.23 Section... MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE LANDFILLS Operating Criteria § 258.23 Explosive gases control. (a) Owners or operators... does not exceed 25 percent of the lower explosive limit for methane in facility structures (excluding...

  9. Dissolved and colloidal copper in the tropical South Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roshan, Saeed; Wu, Jingfeng

    2018-07-01

    Copper (Cu) as a bioactive trace metal in the ocean has widely been studied in the context of chemical speciation. However, this trace metal is extremely understudied in the context of physical speciation (i.e., size- or molecular weight-partitioning), which may help in characterizing dissolved Cu species. In this study, we determine total dissolved Cu (<0.2 μm) distribution and its physical speciation along the US GEOTRACES 2013 cruise, a 4300-km east-west transect in the tropical South Pacific. The distribution of dissolved Cu is rather uniform horizontally and exhibits a linear increase with depth from surface to 2500-3000 m, below which it varies less significantly both vertically and horizontally. Dissolved Cu shows a strong correlation with silicate (SiO44-) in the upper 1500 m, which is in agreement with previous studies in other regions. This correlation is weaker but with higher slope at depths below 1500 m, which supports the sedimentary source hypothesis. Although hydrothermal activity at the East Pacific Rise (EPR) does not show a readily evident impact on the dissolved Cu distribution, high-quality data at 2300-2800 m allow for diagnosing a subtle westward decrease in the background-subtracted dissolved Cu component. This component of dissolved Cu poorly correlates with mantle-derived 3He (R2 = 0.41), indicating a possible hydrothermal source for dissolved Cu, in contrast to previous studies. For the first time in a major basin, we also determined the physical speciation of dissolved Cu, which shows that Cu species lighter than 10 kDa (Da = 1 g mol-1) dominate the pool of dissolved Cu (<0.2 μm) below 1000 m with a contribution of 61 ± 6% (fraction of total dissolved). 39 ± 6% of dissolved Cu at depths below 1000 m, thus, occurs in the pool of colloidal matter (10 kDa-0.2 μm). Moreover, using a suite of molecular weight cutoffs indicate that Cu species are distributed between two distinct molecular weight classes: the lighter than 5 kDa and heavier

  10. DISN Forecast to Industry

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-08-08

    Ms. Cindy E. Moran Director for Network Services 8 August 2008 DISN Forecast to Industry Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188...TITLE AND SUBTITLE DISN (Defense Information system Network ) Forecast to Industry 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER...Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 2 2 Integrated DISN Services by 2016: A Solid Goal Network Aware Applications Common Storage & Retrieval Shared Long

  11. Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

    2015-12-01

    When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

  12. Objective Lightning Probability Forecasts for East-Central Florida Airports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winfred C.

    2013-01-01

    The forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL, (NWS MLB) identified a need to make more accurate lightning forecasts to help alleviate delays due to thunderstorms in the vicinity of several commercial airports in central Florida at which they are responsible for issuing terminal aerodrome forecasts. Such forecasts would also provide safer ground operations around terminals, and would be of value to Center Weather Service Units serving air traffic controllers in Florida. To improve the forecast, the AMU was tasked to develop an objective lightning probability forecast tool for the airports using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The resulting forecast tool is similar to that developed by the AMU to support space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for use by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in previous tasks (Lambert and Wheeler 2005, Lambert 2007). The lightning probability forecasts are valid for the time periods and areas needed by the NWS MLB forecasters in the warm season months, defined in this task as May-September.

  13. Automated time series forecasting for biosurveillance.

    PubMed

    Burkom, Howard S; Murphy, Sean Patrick; Shmueli, Galit

    2007-09-30

    For robust detection performance, traditional control chart monitoring for biosurveillance is based on input data free of trends, day-of-week effects, and other systematic behaviour. Time series forecasting methods may be used to remove this behaviour by subtracting forecasts from observations to form residuals for algorithmic input. We describe three forecast methods and compare their predictive accuracy on each of 16 authentic syndromic data streams. The methods are (1) a non-adaptive regression model using a long historical baseline, (2) an adaptive regression model with a shorter, sliding baseline, and (3) the Holt-Winters method for generalized exponential smoothing. Criteria for comparing the forecasts were the root-mean-square error, the median absolute per cent error (MedAPE), and the median absolute deviation. The median-based criteria showed best overall performance for the Holt-Winters method. The MedAPE measures over the 16 test series averaged 16.5, 11.6, and 9.7 for the non-adaptive regression, adaptive regression, and Holt-Winters methods, respectively. The non-adaptive regression forecasts were degraded by changes in the data behaviour in the fixed baseline period used to compute model coefficients. The mean-based criterion was less conclusive because of the effects of poor forecasts on a small number of calendar holidays. The Holt-Winters method was also most effective at removing serial autocorrelation, with most 1-day-lag autocorrelation coefficients below 0.15. The forecast methods were compared without tuning them to the behaviour of individual series. We achieved improved predictions with such tuning of the Holt-Winters method, but practical use of such improvements for routine surveillance will require reliable data classification methods.

  14. ECPC’s weekly to seasonal global forecasts

    Treesearch

    John O. Roads; Shyh-Chin Chen; Francis M. Fujioka

    2001-01-01

    The Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near-real-time seasonal global forecasts since 26 September 1997 with the NCEP global spectral model used for the reanalysis. Images of these forecasts, at daily to seasonal timescales, are provided on the World Wide Web and digital forecast products are provided on the ECPC...

  15. Spatiotemporal drought forecasting using nonlinear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios

    2010-05-01

    Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. In order to achieve spatiotemporal forecasting, some mature analysis tools, e.g., time series and spatial statistics are extended to the spatial dimension and the temporal dimension, respectively. Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Despite the widespread application of nonlinear mathematical models, comparative studies on spatiotemporal drought forecasting using different models are still a huge task for modellers. This study uses a promising approach, the Gamma Test (GT), to select the input variables and the training data length, so that the trial and error workload could be greatly reduced. The GT enables to quickly evaluate and estimate the best mean squared error that can be achieved by a smooth model on any unseen data for a given selection of inputs, prior to model construction. The GT is applied to forecast droughts using monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) timeseries at multiple timescales in several precipitation stations at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece. Several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently, with the aid of the GT, for 1-month up to 12-month ahead forecasting. Several temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data for short lead times, whereas the forecasting accuracy decreases with

  16. A GLM Post-processor to Adjust Ensemble Forecast Traces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Schaake, J. C.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

    2011-12-01

    The skill of hydrologic ensemble forecasts has improved in the last years through a better understanding of climate variability, better climate forecasts and new data assimilation techniques. Having been extensively utilized for probabilistic water supply forecasting, interest is developing to utilize these forecasts in operational decision making. Hydrologic ensemble forecast members typically have inherent biases in flow timing and volume caused by (1) structural errors in the models used, (2) systematic errors in the data used to calibrate those models, (3) uncertain initial hydrologic conditions, and (4) uncertainties in the forcing datasets. Furthermore, hydrologic models have often not been developed for operational decision points and ensemble forecasts are thus not always available where needed. A statistical post-processor can be used to address these issues. The post-processor should (1) correct for systematic biases in flow timing and volume, (2) preserve the skill of the available raw forecasts, (3) preserve spatial and temporal correlation as well as the uncertainty in the forecasted flow data, (4) produce adjusted forecast ensembles that represent the variability of the observed hydrograph to be predicted, and (5) preserve individual forecast traces as equally likely. The post-processor should also allow for the translation of available ensemble forecasts to hydrologically similar locations where forecasts are not available. This paper introduces an ensemble post-processor (EPP) developed in support of New York City water supply operations. The EPP employs a general linear model (GLM) to (1) adjust available ensemble forecast traces and (2) create new ensembles for (nearby) locations where only historic flow observations are available. The EPP is calibrated by developing daily and aggregated statistical relationships form historical flow observations and model simulations. These are then used in operation to obtain the conditional probability density

  17. Forecasting Fuels Support Equipment Requisitions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-26

    Blackstone , & Hoffmann, 1991). Problem Statement Which forecasting method is most appropriate to forecast fuels support equipment requisitions...over allocating financial resources. 14 Characteristics According to Fogarty, Blackstone , and Hoffman (1991), service, repair, replacement...Econometrica , 187-222. Fogarty, D., Blackstone , J., & Hoffmann, T. (1991). Production & Inventory Management (2d ed.). Cincinnati, OH: South-Western

  18. National Weather Service Marine Forecasts

    Science.gov Websites

    discontinued **NEW** Experimental Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Pacific Ocean Near Mexico Atlantic and . Use Marine Cell Pages Termination Notice (Non Government website) US Coast Guard Mobile App...your safe boating needs in one app Going to the Beach? Check out the Experimental Beach Forecast Page

  19. An Optimization of Inventory Demand Forecasting in University Healthcare Centre

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bon, A. T.; Ng, T. K.

    2017-01-01

    Healthcare industry becomes an important field for human beings nowadays as it concerns about one’s health. With that, forecasting demand for health services is an important step in managerial decision making for all healthcare organizations. Hence, a case study was conducted in University Health Centre to collect historical demand data of Panadol 650mg for 68 months from January 2009 until August 2014. The aim of the research is to optimize the overall inventory demand through forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting or time series forecasting model was used in the case study to forecast future data as a function of past data. Furthermore, the data pattern needs to be identified first before applying the forecasting techniques. Trend is the data pattern and then ten forecasting techniques are applied using Risk Simulator Software. Lastly, the best forecasting techniques will be find out with the least forecasting error. Among the ten forecasting techniques include single moving average, single exponential smoothing, double moving average, double exponential smoothing, regression, Holt-Winter’s additive, Seasonal additive, Holt-Winter’s multiplicative, seasonal multiplicative and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). According to the forecasting accuracy measurement, the best forecasting technique is regression analysis.

  20. North Carolina forecasts for truck traffic

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2006-07-01

    North Carolina has experienced significant increases in truck traffic on many of its highways. Yet, current NCDOT : project-level highway traffic forecasts do not appropriately capture anticipated truck traffic growth. NCDOT : methods forecast total ...

  1. Storm Prediction Center Fire Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov Websites

    Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC Composite Maps Fire Weather Graphical Composite Maps Forecast and observational maps for various fire

  2. Process for the removal of acid forming gases from exhaust gases

    DOEpatents

    Chang, Shih-Ger; Liu, David K.

    1992-01-01

    Exhaust gases are treated to remove NO or NO.sub.x and SO.sub.2 by contacting the gases with an aqueous emulsion or suspension of yellow phosphorus preferably in a wet scrubber. The pressure is not critical, and ambient pressures are used. Hot water temperatures are best, but economics suggest about 50.degree. C. are attractive. The amount of yellow phosphorus used will vary with the composition of the exhaust gas, less than 3% for small concentrations of NO, and 10% or higher for concentrations above say 1000 ppm. Similarly, the pH will vary with the composition being treated, and it is adjusted with a suitable alkali. For mixtures of NO.sub.x and SO.sub.2, alkalis that are used for flue gas desulfurization are preferred. With this process, 100% of the by-products created are usable, and close to 100% of the NO or NO and SO.sub.2 can be removed in an economic fashion.

  3. Process for the removal of acid forming gases from exhaust gases

    DOEpatents

    Chang, S.G.; Liu, D.K.

    1992-11-17

    Exhaust gases are treated to remove NO or NO[sub x] and SO[sub 2] by contacting the gases with an aqueous emulsion or suspension of yellow phosphorus preferably in a wet scrubber. The pressure is not critical, and ambient pressures are used. Hot water temperatures are best, but economics suggest about 50 C is attractive. The amount of yellow phosphorus used will vary with the composition of the exhaust gas, less than 3% for small concentrations of NO, and 10% or higher for concentrations above say 1000 ppm. Similarly, the pH will vary with the composition being treated, and it is adjusted with a suitable alkali. For mixtures of NO[sub x] and SO[sub 2], alkalis that are used for flue gas desulfurization are preferred. With this process, 100% of the by-products created are usable, and close to 100% of the NO or NO[sub x] and SO[sub 2] can be removed in an economic fashion. 9 figs.

  4. Forecasting in the presence of expectations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, R.; Zivin, J. G.; Shrader, J.

    2016-05-01

    Physical processes routinely influence economic outcomes, and actions by economic agents can, in turn, influence physical processes. This feedback creates challenges for forecasting and inference, creating the potential for complementarity between models from different academic disciplines. Using the example of prediction of water availability during a drought, we illustrate the potential biases in forecasts that only take part of a coupled system into account. In particular, we show that forecasts can alter the feedbacks between supply and demand, leading to inaccurate prediction about future states of the system. Although the example is specific to drought, the problem of feedback between expectations and forecast quality is not isolated to the particular model-it is relevant to areas as diverse as population assessments for conservation, balancing the electrical grid, and setting macroeconomic policy.

  5. Foliage plants for indoor removal of the primary combustion gases carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolverton, B. C.; Mcdonald, R. C.; Mesick, H. H.

    1985-01-01

    Foliage plants were evaluated for their ability to sorb carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide, the two primary gases produced during the combustion of fossil fuels and tobacco. The spider plant (Chlorophytum elatum var. vittatum) could sorb 2.86 micrograms CO/sq cm leaf surface in a 6 h photoperiod. The golden pothos (Scindapsus aureus) sorbed 0.98 micrograms CO/sq cm leaf surface in the same time period. In a system with the spider plant, greater than or equal to 99 percent of an initial concentration of 47 ppm NO2 could be removed in 6 h from a void volume of approximately 0.35 cu m. One spider plant potted in a 3.8 liter container can sorb 3300 micrograms CO and effect the removal of 8500 micrograms NO2/hour, recognizing the fact that a significant fraction of NO2 at high concentrations will be lost by surface sorption, dissolving in moisture, etc.

  6. Indicators: Dissolved Oxygen

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Dissolved oxygen (DO) is the amount of oxygen that is present in water. It is an important measure of water quality as it indicates a water body's ability to support aquatic life. Water bodies receive oxygen from the atmosphere and from aquatic plants.

  7. Lap-Dissolve Slides

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fine, Leonard W.; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Discusses the use of lap-dissolve projection to give students pre-laboratory instruction on an upcoming experiment. In this technique, two slide projectors are operated alternately so that one visual image fades away while the next appears on the same screen area. (MLH)

  8. 40 CFR 430.40 - Applicability; description of the dissolving sulfite subcategory.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... dissolving sulfite subcategory. 430.40 Section 430.40 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... CATEGORY Dissolving Sulfite Subcategory § 430.40 Applicability; description of the dissolving sulfite... at dissolving sulfite mills. ...

  9. 40 CFR 430.40 - Applicability; description of the dissolving sulfite subcategory.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... dissolving sulfite subcategory. 430.40 Section 430.40 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... CATEGORY Dissolving Sulfite Subcategory § 430.40 Applicability; description of the dissolving sulfite... at dissolving sulfite mills. ...

  10. Metric optimisation for analogue forecasting by simulated annealing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bliefernicht, J.; Bárdossy, A.

    2009-04-01

    It is well known that weather patterns tend to recur from time to time. This property of the atmosphere is used by analogue forecasting techniques. They have a long history in weather forecasting and there are many applications predicting hydrological variables at the local scale for different lead times. The basic idea of the technique is to identify past weather situations which are similar (analogue) to the predicted one and to take the local conditions of the analogues as forecast. But the forecast performance of the analogue method depends on user-defined criteria like the choice of the distance function and the size of the predictor domain. In this study we propose a new methodology of optimising both criteria by minimising the forecast error with simulated annealing. The performance of the methodology is demonstrated for the probability forecast of daily areal precipitation. It is compared with a traditional analogue forecasting algorithm, which is used operational as an element of a hydrological forecasting system. The study is performed for several meso-scale catchments located in the Rhine basin in Germany. The methodology is validated by a jack-knife method in a perfect prognosis framework for a period of 48 years (1958-2005). The predictor variables are derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set. The Brier skill score and the economic value are determined to evaluate the forecast skill and value of the technique. In this presentation we will present the concept of the optimisation algorithm and the outcome of the comparison. It will be also demonstrated how a decision maker should apply a probability forecast to maximise the economic benefit from it.

  11. Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

  12. A Decision Support System for effective use of probability forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Kleermaeker, Simone; Verkade, Jan

    2013-04-01

    Often, water management decisions are based on hydrological forecasts. These forecasts, however, are affected by inherent uncertainties. It is increasingly common for forecasting agencies to make explicit estimates of these uncertainties and thus produce probabilistic forecasts. Associated benefits include the decision makers' increased awareness of forecasting uncertainties and the potential for risk-based decision-making. Also, a stricter separation of responsibilities between forecasters and decision maker can be made. However, simply having probabilistic forecasts available is not sufficient to realise the associated benefits. Additional effort is required in areas such as forecast visualisation and communication, decision making in uncertainty and forecast verification. Also, revised separation of responsibilities requires a shift in institutional arrangements and responsibilities. A recent study identified a number of additional issues related to the effective use of probability forecasts. When moving from deterministic to probability forecasting, a dimension is added to an already multi-dimensional problem; this makes it increasingly difficult for forecast users to extract relevant information from a forecast. A second issue is that while probability forecasts provide a necessary ingredient for risk-based decision making, other ingredients may not be present. For example, in many cases no estimates of flood damage, of costs of management measures and of damage reduction are available. This paper presents the results of the study, including some suggestions for resolving these issues and the integration of those solutions in a prototype decision support system (DSS). A pathway for further development of the DSS is outlined.

  13. Tsunami Forecast Progress Five Years After Indonesian Disaster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Titov, Vasily V.; Bernard, Eddie N.; Weinstein, Stuart A.; Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas E.

    2010-05-01

    Almost five years after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tragedy, tsunami warnings are finally benefiting from decades of research toward effective model-based forecasts. Since the 2004 tsunami, two seminal advances have been (i) deep-ocean tsunami measurements with tsunameters and (ii) their use in accurately forecasting tsunamis after the tsunami has been generated. Using direct measurements of deep-ocean tsunami heights, assimilated into numerical models for specific locations, greatly improves the real-time forecast accuracy over earthquake-derived magnitude estimates of tsunami impact. Since 2003, this method has been used to forecast tsunamis at specific harbors for different events in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Recent tsunamis illustrated how this technology is being adopted in global tsunami warning operations. The U.S. forecasting system was used by both research and operations to evaluate the tsunami hazard. Tests demonstrated the effectiveness of operational tsunami forecasting using real-time deep-ocean data assimilated into forecast models. Several examples also showed potential of distributed forecast tools. With IOC and USAID funding, NOAA researchers at PMEL developed the Community Model Interface for Tsunami (ComMIT) tool and distributed it through extensive capacity-building sessions in the Indian Ocean. Over hundred scientists have been trained in tsunami inundation mapping, leading to the first generation of inundation models for many Indian Ocean shorelines. These same inundation models can also be used for real-time tsunami forecasts as was demonstrated during several events. Contact Information Vasily V. Titov, Seattle, Washington, USA, 98115

  14. Controls on stream water dissolved mercury in three mid-Appalachian forested headwater catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riscassi, Ami L.; Scanlon, Todd M.

    2011-12-01

    Determining the controls on dissolved mercury (HgD) transport is necessary to improve estimations of export from unmonitored watersheds and to forecast responses to changes in deposition and other environmental forcings. Stream water HgD and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were evaluated over a range of discharge conditions in three streams within Shenandoah National Park, VA. Watersheds are distinguished by stream water pH (ranging from neutral to acidic) and soil size fractioning (ranging from clays to sands). At all sites, discharge was a significant but poor predictor of HgD concentrations (r2 from 0.13-0.52). HgD was strongly coupled with DOC at all sites (r2 from 0.74-0.89). UV absorbance at 254 nm (UV254), a proxy for DOC quantity and quality, slightly improved the predictions of HgD. Mean DOC quality differed between streams, with less aromatic DOC mobilized from the more acidic watershed. The site with less aromatic DOC and sandy soils mobilized more Hg to the stream for the same quantity and quality of DOC, likely due to the reduced capacity of the larger-grained soils to retain Hg, leaving a greater fraction associated with the organic matter. A similar amount of 0.54 ng HgD/mg DOC is transported at all sites, suggesting the less aromatic DOC transports less Hg per unit DOC, offsetting the effects of soil type. This research demonstrates that soil composition and DOC quality influence HgDexport. We also provide evidence that soil organic carbon is a primary control on Hg-DOC ratios (0.12-1.4 ng mg-1) observed across the U.S. and Sweden.

  15. Virial Coefficients from Unified Statistical Thermodynamics of Quantum Gases Trapped under Generic Power Law Potential in d Dimension and Equivalence of Quantum Gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bahauddin, Shah Mohammad; Mehedi Faruk, Mir

    2016-09-01

    From the unified statistical thermodynamics of quantum gases, the virial coefficients of ideal Bose and Fermi gases, trapped under generic power law potential are derived systematically. From the general result of virial coefficients, one can produce the known results in d = 3 and d = 2. But more importantly we found that, the virial coefficients of Bose and Fermi gases become identical (except the second virial coefficient, where the sign is different) when the gases are trapped under harmonic potential in d = 1. This result suggests the equivalence between Bose and Fermi gases established in d = 1 (J. Stat. Phys. DOI 10.1007/s10955-015-1344-4). Also, it is found that the virial coefficients of two-dimensional free Bose (Fermi) gas are equal to the virial coefficients of one-dimensional harmonically trapped Bose (Fermi) gas.

  16. Forecasting for a Remote Island: A Class Exercise.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riordan, Allen J.

    2003-06-01

    Students enrolled in a satellite meteorology course at North Carolina State University, Raleigh, recently had an unusual opportunity to apply their forecast skills to predict wind and weather conditions for a remote site in the Southern Hemisphere. For about 40 days starting in early February 2001, students used satellite and model guidance to develop forecasts to support a research team stationed on Bouvet Island (54°26S, 3°24E). Internet products together with current output from NCEP's Aviation (AVN) model supported the activity. Wind forecasts were of particular interest to the Bouvet team because violent winds often developed unexpectedly and posed a safety hazard.Results were encouraging in that 24-h wind speed forecasts showed reasonable reliability over a wide range of wind speeds. Forecasts for 48 h showed only marginal skill, however. Two critical events were well forecasted-the major February storm with wind speeds of over 120 kt and a brief calm period following several days of strong winds in early March. The latter forecast proved instrumental in recovering the research team.

  17. Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico.

    PubMed

    Johansson, Michael A; Reich, Nicholas G; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S; Santillana, Mauricio

    2016-09-26

    Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model.

  18. Cryogenic method for measuring nuclides and fission gases

    DOEpatents

    Perdue, P.T.; Haywood, F.F.

    1980-05-02

    A cryogenic method is provided for determining airborne gases and particulates from which gamma rays are emitted. A special dewar counting vessel is filled with the contents of the sampling flask which is immersed in liquid nitrogen. A vertically placed sodium-iodide or germanium-lithium gamma-ray detector is used. The device and method are of particular use in measuring and identifying the radioactive noble gases including emissions from coal-fired power plants, as well as fission gases released or escaping from nuclear power plants.

  19. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  20. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-01-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  1. Worldwide satellite market demand forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowyer, J. M.; Frankfort, M.; Steinnagel, K. M.

    1981-06-01

    The forecast is for the years 1981 - 2000 with benchmark years at 1985, 1990 and 2000. Two typs of markets are considered for this study: Hardware (worldwide total) - satellites, earth stations and control facilities (includes replacements and spares); and non-hardware (addressable by U.S. industry) - planning, launch, turnkey systems and operations. These markets were examined for the INTELSAT System (international systems and domestic and regional systems using leased transponders) and domestic and regional systems. Forecasts were determined for six worldwide regions encompassing 185 countries using actual costs for existing equipment and engineering estimates of costs for advanced systems. Most likely (conservative growth rate estimates) and optimistic (mid range growth rate estimates) scenarios were employed for arriving at the forecasts which are presented in constant 1980 U.S. dollars. The worldwide satellite market demand forecast predicts that the market between 181 and 2000 will range from $35 to $50 billion. Approximately one-half of the world market, $16 to $20 billion, will be generated in the United States.

  2. METHOD FOR DISSOLVING LANTHANUM FLUORIDE CARRIER FOR PLUTONIUM

    DOEpatents

    Koshland, D.E. Jr.; Willard, J.E.

    1961-08-01

    A method is described for dissolving lanthanum fluoride precipitates which is applicable to lanthanum fluoride carrier precipitation processes for recovery of plutonium values from aqueous solutions. The lanthanum fluoride precipitate is contacted with an aqueous acidic solution containing dissolved zirconium in the tetravalent oxidation state. The presence of the zirconium increases the lanthanum fluoride dissolved and makes any tetravalent plutonium present more readily oxidizable to the hexavalent state. (AEC)

  3. 40 CFR 430.40 - Applicability; description of the dissolving sulfite subcategory.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... dissolving sulfite subcategory. 430.40 Section 430.40 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... SOURCE CATEGORY Dissolving Sulfite Subcategory § 430.40 Applicability; description of the dissolving... production of pulp at dissolving sulfite mills. ...

  4. 40 CFR 430.40 - Applicability; description of the dissolving sulfite subcategory.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... dissolving sulfite subcategory. 430.40 Section 430.40 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... SOURCE CATEGORY Dissolving Sulfite Subcategory § 430.40 Applicability; description of the dissolving... production of pulp at dissolving sulfite mills. ...

  5. 40 CFR 430.40 - Applicability; description of the dissolving sulfite subcategory.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... dissolving sulfite subcategory. 430.40 Section 430.40 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... SOURCE CATEGORY Dissolving Sulfite Subcategory § 430.40 Applicability; description of the dissolving... production of pulp at dissolving sulfite mills. ...

  6. Skill in Precipitation Forecasting in the National Weather Service.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charba, Jerome P.; Klein, William H.

    1980-12-01

    All known long-term records of forecasting performance for different types of precipitation forecasts in the National Weather Service were examined for relative skill and secular trends in skill. The largest upward trends were achieved by local probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts for the periods 24-36 h and 36-48 h after 0000 and 1200 GMT. Over the last 13 years, the skill of these forecasts has improved at an average rate of 7.2% per 10-year interval. Over the same period, improvement has been smaller in local PoP skill in the 12-24 h range (2.0% per 10 years) and in the accuracy of "Yea/No" forecasts of measurable precipitation. The overall trend in accuracy of centralized quantitative precipitation forecasts of 0.5 in and 1.0 in has been slightly upward at the 0-24 h range and strongly upward at the 24-48 h range. Most of the improvement in these forecasts has been achieved from the early 1970s to the present. Strong upward accuracy trends in all types of precipitation forecasts within the past eight years are attributed primarily to improvements in numerical and statistical centralized guidance forecasts.The skill and accuracy of both measurable and quantitative precipitation forecasts is 35-55% greater during the cool season than during the warm season. Also, the secular rate of improvement of the cool season precipitation forecasts is 50-110% greater than that of the warm season. This seasonal difference in performance reflects the relative difficulty of forecasting predominantly stratiform precipitation of the cool season and convective precipitation of the warm season.

  7. Dark lump excitations in superfluid Fermi gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Yan-Xia; Duan, Wen-Shan

    2012-11-01

    We study the linear and nonlinear properties of two-dimensional matter-wave pulses in disk-shaped superfluid Fermi gases. A Kadomtsev—Petviashvili I (KPI) solitary wave has been realized for superfluid Fermi gases in the limited cases of Bardeen—Cooper—Schrieffer (BCS) regime, Bose—Einstein condensate (BEC) regime, and unitarity regime. One-lump solution as well as one-line soliton solutions for the KPI equation are obtained, and two-line soliton solutions with the same amplitude are also studied in the limited cases. The dependence of the lump propagating velocity and the sound speed of two-dimensional superfluid Fermi gases on the interaction parameter are investigated for the limited cases of BEC and unitarity.

  8. Hydrogen Peroxide Enhances Removal of NOx from Flue Gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Collins, Michelle M.

    2005-01-01

    Pilot scale experiments have demonstrated a method of reducing the amounts of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emitted by industrial boilers and powerplant combustors that involves (1) injection of H2O2 into flue gases and (2) treatment of the flue gases by caustic wet scrubbing like that commonly used to remove SO2 from combustion flue gases. Heretofore, the method most commonly used for removing NOx from flue gases has been selective catalytic reduction (SCR), in which the costs of both installation and operation are very high. After further development, the present method may prove to be an economically attractive alternative to SCR.

  9. Air-water Gas Exchange Rates on a Large Impounded River Measured Using Floating Domes (Poster)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mass balance models of dissolved gases in rivers typically serve as the basis for whole-system estimates of greenhouse gas emission rates. An important component of these models is the exchange of dissolved gases between air and water. Controls on gas exchange rates (K) have be...

  10. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  11. Adaptive correction of ensemble forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pelosi, Anna; Battista Chirico, Giovanni; Van den Bergh, Joris; Vannitsem, Stephane

    2017-04-01

    Forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often suffer from both systematic and non-systematic errors. These are present in both deterministic and ensemble forecasts, and originate from various sources such as model error and subgrid variability. Statistical post-processing techniques can partly remove such errors, which is particularly important when NWP outputs concerning surface weather variables are employed for site specific applications. Many different post-processing techniques have been developed. For deterministic forecasts, adaptive methods such as the Kalman filter are often used, which sequentially post-process the forecasts by continuously updating the correction parameters as new ground observations become available. These methods are especially valuable when long training data sets do not exist. For ensemble forecasts, well-known techniques are ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), and so-called "member-by-member" approaches (MBM). Here, we introduce a new adaptive post-processing technique for ensemble predictions. The proposed method is a sequential Kalman filtering technique that fully exploits the information content of the ensemble. One correction equation is retrieved and applied to all members, however the parameters of the regression equations are retrieved by exploiting the second order statistics of the forecast ensemble. We compare our new method with two other techniques: a simple method that makes use of a running bias correction of the ensemble mean, and an MBM post-processing approach that rescales the ensemble mean and spread, based on minimization of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We perform a verification study for the region of Campania in southern Italy. We use two years (2014-2015) of daily meteorological observations of 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind speed from 18 ground-based automatic weather stations distributed across the region, comparing them with the corresponding COSMO

  12. 7 CFR 760.115 - Deceased individuals or dissolved entities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Deceased individuals or dissolved entities. 760.115... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.115 Deceased individuals or dissolved entities. (a) Payments... or is a dissolved entity if a representative, who currently has authority to enter into a contract...

  13. 7 CFR 760.115 - Deceased individuals or dissolved entities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Deceased individuals or dissolved entities. 760.115... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.115 Deceased individuals or dissolved entities. (a) Payments... or is a dissolved entity if a representative, who currently has authority to enter into a contract...

  14. 7 CFR 760.115 - Deceased individuals or dissolved entities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Deceased individuals or dissolved entities. 760.115... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.115 Deceased individuals or dissolved entities. (a) Payments... or is a dissolved entity if a representative, who currently has authority to enter into a contract...

  15. 7 CFR 760.115 - Deceased individuals or dissolved entities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Deceased individuals or dissolved entities. 760.115... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.115 Deceased individuals or dissolved entities. (a) Payments... or is a dissolved entity if a representative, who currently has authority to enter into a contract...

  16. 7 CFR 760.115 - Deceased individuals or dissolved entities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Deceased individuals or dissolved entities. 760.115... Agricultural Disaster Assistance Programs § 760.115 Deceased individuals or dissolved entities. (a) Payments... or is a dissolved entity if a representative, who currently has authority to enter into a contract...

  17. Relativistic quantum thermodynamics of ideal gases in two dimensions.

    PubMed

    Blas, H; Pimentel, B M; Tomazelli, J L

    1999-11-01

    In this work we study the behavior of relativistic ideal Bose and Fermi gases in two space dimensions. Making use of polylogarithm functions we derive a closed and unified expression for their densities. It is shown that both type of gases are essentially inequivalent, and only in the non-relativistic limit the spinless and equal mass Bose and Fermi gases are equivalent as known in the literature.

  18. Human-model hybrid Korean air quality forecasting system.

    PubMed

    Chang, Lim-Seok; Cho, Ara; Park, Hyunju; Nam, Kipyo; Kim, Deokrae; Hong, Ji-Hyoung; Song, Chang-Keun

    2016-09-01

    The Korean national air quality forecasting system, consisting of the Weather Research and Forecasting, the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions, and the Community Modeling and Analysis (CMAQ), commenced from August 31, 2013 with target pollutants of particulate matters (PM) and ozone. Factors contributing to PM forecasting accuracy include CMAQ inputs of meteorological field and emissions, forecasters' capacity, and inherent CMAQ limit. Four numerical experiments were conducted including two global meteorological inputs from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Unified Model (UM), two emissions from the Model Intercomparison Study Asia (MICS-Asia) and the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX-B) for the Northeast Asia with Clear Air Policy Support System (CAPSS) for South Korea, and data assimilation of the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC). Significant PM underpredictions by using both emissions were found for PM mass and major components (sulfate and organic carbon). CMAQ predicts PM2.5 much better than PM10 (NMB of PM2.5: -20~-25%, PM10: -43~-47%). Forecasters' error usually occurred at the next day of high PM event. Once CMAQ fails to predict high PM event the day before, forecasters are likely to dismiss the model predictions on the next day which turns out to be true. The best combination of CMAQ inputs is the set of UM global meteorological field, MICS-Asia and CAPSS 2010 emissions with the NMB of -12.3%, the RMSE of 16.6μ/m(3) and the R(2) of 0.68. By using MACC data as an initial and boundary condition, the performance skill of CMAQ would be improved, especially in the case of undefined coarse emission. A variety of methods such as ensemble and data assimilation are considered to improve further the accuracy of air quality forecasting, especially for high PM events to be comparable to for all cases. The growing utilization of the air quality forecast induced the public strongly to demand that the accuracy of the

  19. Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, James C.; Wang, Quan J.; Robertson, David E.; Schepen, Andrew; Li, Ming; Michael, Kelvin

    2017-11-01

    Despite an increasing availability of skilful long-range streamflow forecasts, many water agencies still rely on simple resampled historical inflow sequences (stochastic scenarios) to plan operations over the coming year. We assess a recently developed forecasting system called forecast guided stochastic scenarios (FoGSS) as a skilful alternative to standard stochastic scenarios for the Australian continent. FoGSS uses climate forecasts from a coupled ocean-land-atmosphere prediction system, post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging. Ensemble rainfall forecasts force a monthly rainfall-runoff model, while a staged hydrological error model quantifies and propagates hydrological forecast uncertainty through forecast lead times. FoGSS is able to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts in the form of monthly time series to a 12-month forecast horizon. FoGSS is tested on 63 Australian catchments that cover a wide range of climates, including 21 ephemeral rivers. In all perennial and many ephemeral catchments, FoGSS provides an effective alternative to resampled historical inflow sequences. FoGSS generally produces skilful forecasts at shorter lead times ( < 4 months), and transits to climatology-like forecasts at longer lead times. Forecasts are generally reliable and unbiased. However, FoGSS does not perform well in very dry catchments (catchments that experience zero flows more than half the time in some months), sometimes producing strongly negative forecast skill and poor reliability. We attempt to improve forecasts through the use of (i) ESP rainfall forcings, (ii) different rainfall-runoff models, and (iii) a Bayesian prior to encourage the error model to return climatology forecasts in months when the rainfall-runoff model performs poorly. Of these, the use of the prior offers the clearest benefit in very dry catchments, where it moderates strongly negative forecast skill and reduces bias in some instances. However, the prior does

  20. Better hurricane forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friebele, Elaine

    People living in coastal areas can rely on better hurricane predictions because forecasters now have nearly instant access to global wind data. Measurements of wind speed and direction over the world's oceans are available within 3 hours of measurement from the Japanese satellite ADEOS (Advanced Earth Observing Satellite).Wind parameters at 25-km resolution are being measured by NASA's scatterometer traveling on the Japanese satellite ADEOS (Advanced Earth Observing Satellite). “The high accuracy and spatial resolution of the data were quickly recognized by our forecasters, who have been starved for data over significant expanses of the world's oceans,” said Jim Hoke, director of NOAA's Marine Prediction Center.